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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Connecticut

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:32.0
Current RPI:32
Expected SOS:52
Current SOS:52
Current Record:24-10
Expected Record:24-10
Current Conf Record:14-7
Expected Conf Record:14-7
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-0
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:67
Expected OOC SOS:106



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-1032.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Connecticut.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Maine (317.0)AEH100-56W100%0.0
11-17New Hampshire (177.0)AEH85-66W100%0.0
11-21Furman (167.0)SCH83-58W100%0.0
11-25Michigan (56.0)B10N74-60W100%0.0
11-26Syracuse (72.0)ACCN79-76L0%0.0
11-27Gonzaga (46.0)WCCN73-70L0%0.0
12-2Sacred Heart (258.0)NECH82-49W100%0.0
12-8Maryland (14.0)B10N66-76L0%0.0
12-12Ohio St. (74.0)B10H75-55W100%0.0
12-20UMass Lowell (261.0)AEH88-79W100%0.0
12-23Central Connecticut (351.0)NECH99-52W100%0.0
12-29Texas (27.0)B12A66-71W100%0.0
1-2Tulane (227.0)AmerA67-75W100%0.0
1-5Temple (60.0)AmerH53-55L0%0.0
1-9Memphis (139.0)AmerH81-78W100%0.0
1-14Tulsa (58.0)AmerA60-51L0%0.0
1-17Houston (87.0)AmerA57-69W100%0.0
1-19Tulane (227.0)AmerH60-42W100%0.0
1-23Georgetown (106.0)BEH68-62W100%0.0
1-28Cincinnati (48.0)AmerH57-58L0%0.0
1-31UCF (219.0)AmerA41-67W100%0.0
2-4Memphis (139.0)AmerA57-77W100%0.0
2-7East Carolina (217.0)AmerH85-67W100%0.0
2-11Temple (60.0)AmerA63-58L0%0.0
2-13Tulsa (58.0)AmerH75-73W100%0.0
2-18SMU (13.0)AmerH68-62W100%0.0
2-20Cincinnati (48.0)AmerA65-60L0%0.0
2-25South Florida (230.0)AmerA51-81W100%0.0
2-28Houston (87.0)AmerH68-75L0%0.0
3-3SMU (13.0)AmerA80-54L0%0.0
3-6UCF (219.0)AmerH67-46W100%0.0
3-11Cincinnati (48.0)AmerN97-104W100%0.0
3-12Temple (60.0)AmerN62-77W100%0.0
3-13Memphis (139.0)AmerN72-58W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Connecticut's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Connecticut's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Connecticut.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ConnecticutAmer26.4326.4368.4268.429.749.74
MemphisAmer5.275.2761.2961.291.191.19
TempleAmer5.175.1765.5265.521.611.61
CincinnatiAmer5.155.1568.9768.971.951.95
TulaneAmer3.853.8537.5037.50-0.96-0.96
TulsaAmer3.793.7965.5265.521.181.18
HoustonAmer3.773.7772.4172.411.691.69
SMUAmer3.763.7685.7185.712.692.69
UCFAmer3.743.7442.8642.86-0.53-0.53
South FloridaAmer2.442.4425.0025.00-1.22-1.22
East CarolinaAmer2.372.3738.7138.71-0.53-0.53
New HampshireAE1.621.6260.7160.710.350.35
UMass LowellAE1.621.6237.0437.04-0.42-0.42
MichiganB101.611.6165.6265.620.500.50
Ohio St.B101.601.6062.5062.500.400.40
MaineAE1.601.6027.5927.59-0.72-0.72
MarylandB101.581.5874.1974.190.770.77
Central ConnecticutNEC1.571.5714.2914.29-1.12-1.12
Sacred HeartNEC1.551.5541.3841.38-0.27-0.27
GonzagaWCC1.521.5277.4277.420.830.83
GeorgetownBE1.521.5246.8846.88-0.09-0.09
SyracuseACC1.491.4958.0658.060.240.24
TexasB121.491.4964.5264.520.430.43
FurmanSC1.471.4753.3353.330.100.10
WisconsinB100.200.2062.5062.500.050.05
North CarolinaACC0.200.2082.3582.350.130.13
BinghamtonAE0.200.2026.6726.67-0.09-0.09
HartfordAE0.200.2028.1228.12-0.09-0.09
VermontAE0.200.2060.6160.610.040.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.190.1942.4242.42-0.03-0.03
NorthwesternB100.190.1962.5062.500.050.05
ButlerBE0.180.1867.7467.740.060.06
LIU BrooklynNEC0.180.1851.6151.610.010.01
AlbanyAE0.170.1774.1974.190.080.08
BryantNEC0.170.1723.3323.33-0.09-0.09
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.170.1754.8454.840.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.170.1731.2531.25-0.06-0.06
Nicholls St.Slnd0.160.1625.8125.81-0.08-0.08
NebraskaB100.160.1647.0647.06-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.160.1625.8125.81-0.08-0.08
Stony BrookAE0.150.1580.0080.000.090.09
UMBCAE0.150.1521.8821.88-0.09-0.09
WagnerNEC0.150.1567.7467.740.050.05
Boston CollegeACC0.150.1521.8821.88-0.08-0.08
BrownIvy0.150.1525.9325.93-0.07-0.07
RutgersB100.140.1419.3519.35-0.09-0.09
George WashingtonA100.140.1469.7069.700.060.06
XavierBE0.140.1484.3884.380.090.09
VillanovaBE0.140.1485.2985.290.100.10
Michigan St.B100.140.1485.2985.290.100.10
PurdueB100.140.1476.4776.470.070.07
South CarolinaSEC0.130.1374.1974.190.070.07
St. Francis PANEC0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.120.1237.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Iowa St.B120.110.1165.6265.620.040.04
CharlotteCUSA0.110.1142.4242.42-0.02-0.02
MercerSC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
Penn St.B100.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
OklahomaB120.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
Grambling St.SWAC0.110.1114.2914.29-0.08-0.08
UT ArlingtonSB0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
SouthernSWAC0.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.110.1125.9325.93-0.05-0.05
St. Francis NYNEC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.100.1077.7877.780.050.05
TCUB120.090.0936.3636.36-0.03-0.03
PennIvy0.090.0937.0437.04-0.02-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.0916.6716.67-0.06-0.06
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
Appalachian St.SB0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
IllinoisB100.090.0944.1244.12-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
IowaB100.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.090.0970.0070.000.030.03
Holy CrossPat0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
StanfordP120.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.070.0787.1087.100.050.05
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.0710.7110.71-0.06-0.06
Rhode IslandA100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
SamfordSC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
VMISC0.070.0722.2222.22-0.04-0.04
MarquetteBE0.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0724.2424.24-0.04-0.04
BaylorB120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
La SalleA100.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
PortlandWCC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0779.4179.410.040.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0783.8783.870.050.05
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0732.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
UtahP120.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
VCUA100.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
WashingtonP120.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
LibertyBSth0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.070.0775.7675.760.030.03
DePaulBE0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
IUPUISum0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.060.0662.5062.500.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0611.1111.11-0.05-0.05
DartmouthIvy0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
CornellIvy0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
DavidsonA100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Kent St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
NJITASun0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
ColgatePat0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0579.3179.310.030.03
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
LSUSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0518.5218.52-0.03-0.03
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
WoffordSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0576.6776.670.020.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
KansasB120.050.0587.8887.880.030.03
Kansas St.B120.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.050.0523.0823.08-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.020.02
DukeACC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
ElonCAA0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0576.6776.670.020.02
VirginiaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
CreightonBE0.040.0456.2556.250.010.01
KentuckySEC0.040.0476.4776.470.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.040.0469.7069.700.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.040.0435.7135.71-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.040.0420.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.040.0445.1645.16-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.040.0425.9325.93-0.02-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.040.0482.1482.140.030.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
HofstraCAA0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
LafayettePat0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
DaytonA100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
CaliforniaP120.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
ClemsonACC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
LehighPat0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
Miami FLACC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
MontanaBSky0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.020.0277.7877.780.010.01
RiderMAAC0.020.0239.3939.39-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.020.0244.1244.12-0.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
UCLAP120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
TroySB0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01