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Through games of Feb 13, 2016.


Connecticut

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:38.6
Current RPI:41
Expected SOS:55
Current SOS:62
Current Record:18-7
Expected Record:22-9
Current Conf Record:8-4
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-0
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:56
Expected OOC SOS:81



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-722.14.26%
23-827.322.71%
22-935.939.30%
21-1048.826.82%
20-1161.56.42%
19-1272.10.48%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Connecticut.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Maine (310.7)AEH100-56W100%0.0
11-17New Hampshire (182.9)AEH85-66W100%0.0
11-21Furman (147.6)SCH83-58W100%0.0
11-25Michigan (41.0)B10N74-60W100%0.0
11-26Syracuse (45.7)ACCN79-76L0%0.0
11-27Gonzaga (53.2)WCCN73-70L0%0.0
12-2Sacred Heart (273.6)NECH82-49W100%0.0
12-8Maryland (8.8)B10N66-76L0%0.0
12-12Ohio St. (90.8)B10H75-55W100%0.0
12-20UMass Lowell (251.5)AEH88-79W100%0.0
12-23Central Connecticut (350.8)NECH99-52W100%0.0
12-29Texas (31.0)B12A66-71W100%0.0
1-2Tulane (222.1)AmerA67-75W100%0.0
1-5Temple (74.2)AmerH53-55L0%0.0
1-9Memphis (133.4)AmerH81-78W100%0.0
1-14Tulsa (56.7)AmerA60-51L0%0.0
1-17Houston (89.7)AmerA57-69W100%0.0
1-19Tulane (222.1)AmerH60-42W100%0.0
1-23Georgetown (75.5)BEH68-62W100%0.0
1-28Cincinnati (45.4)AmerH57-58L0%0.0
1-31UCF (202.9)AmerA41-67W100%0.0
2-4Memphis (133.4)AmerA57-77W100%0.0
2-7East Carolina (198.3)AmerH85-67W100%0.0
2-11Temple (74.2)AmerA63-58L0%0.0
2-13Tulsa (56.7)AmerH75-73W100%0.0
2-18SMU (13.4)AmerH0-053%0.9
2-20Cincinnati (45.4)AmerA0-038%-3.5
2-25South Florida (244.1)AmerA0-093%15.8
2-28Houston (89.7)AmerH0-081%9.5
3-3SMU (13.4)AmerA0-030%-5.7
3-6UCF (202.9)AmerH0-095%17.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Connecticut's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Connecticut's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Connecticut.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ConnecticutAmer26.3326.2668.4768.079.739.49
SMUAmer0.734.0587.5086.130.552.93
HoustonAmer2.534.0075.0073.111.261.85
MemphisAmer4.484.0060.8760.570.970.84
TulsaAmer4.484.0065.2265.301.361.22
TulaneAmer4.483.9741.6739.89-0.75-0.80
CincinnatiAmer2.613.9772.0070.911.151.66
TempleAmer4.403.9761.9059.711.050.77
UCFAmer2.483.9750.0046.700.00-0.26
East CarolinaAmer2.662.4641.6740.73-0.44-0.46
South FloridaAmer0.562.4620.0020.16-0.34-1.47
UMass LowellAE2.211.7839.1339.09-0.48-0.39
New HampshireAE2.121.7861.9059.070.510.32
MichiganB102.081.7775.0071.081.040.75
MaineAE2.211.7633.3332.28-0.74-0.62
Ohio St.B102.161.7564.0057.800.600.27
MarylandB102.161.7483.3379.941.441.04
Central ConnecticutNEC2.161.7312.5012.91-1.62-1.28
Sacred HeartNEC2.121.7037.5038.66-0.53-0.38
GonzagaWCC2.001.6775.0075.411.000.85
GeorgetownBE2.081.6756.0053.410.250.11
TexasB122.041.6466.6763.120.680.43
SyracuseACC2.041.6466.6762.940.680.42
FurmanSC2.001.6160.0058.210.400.26
HartfordAE0.250.2324.0024.54-0.13-0.12
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.280.2244.4447.27-0.03-0.01
WisconsinB100.280.2164.0060.000.080.04
North CarolinaACC0.280.2183.3378.350.190.12
BinghamtonAE0.210.2024.0026.42-0.11-0.09
AlbanyAE0.170.2073.0873.780.080.09
BryantNEC0.240.1923.0823.72-0.13-0.10
NorthwesternB100.240.1965.3862.780.070.05
Stony BrookAE0.170.1782.6183.030.110.11
UMBCAE0.170.1723.0825.88-0.09-0.08
VermontAE0.210.1752.0054.840.010.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.200.1750.0051.400.000.00
WagnerNEC0.200.1762.5063.810.050.05
Boston CollegeACC0.210.1729.1726.62-0.09-0.08
BrownIvy0.160.1728.5728.84-0.07-0.07
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.170.1650.0050.880.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.160.1629.6330.87-0.06-0.06
RutgersB100.240.1620.8319.90-0.14-0.10
MinnesotaB100.210.1625.0027.21-0.10-0.07
Nicholls St.Slnd0.120.1617.3920.09-0.08-0.10
ButlerBE0.160.1668.0066.750.060.05
St. Francis PANEC0.160.1450.0050.520.000.00
George WashingtonA100.080.1372.0070.430.040.05
MercerSC0.190.1364.0065.380.050.04
PurdueB100.160.1376.9275.980.090.07
CharlotteCUSA0.200.1340.0043.15-0.04-0.02
NebraskaB100.120.1353.8551.650.010.00
South CarolinaSEC0.160.1383.3378.690.110.08
XavierBE0.120.1388.0084.240.090.09
St. Francis NYNEC0.160.1140.0043.52-0.03-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.120.1126.0928.44-0.06-0.05
YaleIvy0.080.1176.1976.290.040.06
Western CarolinaSC0.080.1134.7836.09-0.02-0.03
IowaB100.080.1179.1778.810.050.06
Penn St.B100.160.1148.0045.86-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.160.1124.0027.56-0.08-0.05
IllinoisB100.120.1144.0043.45-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.080.1180.0081.510.050.07
Oklahoma St.B120.120.1148.0043.71-0.00-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.120.1113.0418.03-0.09-0.07
TCUB120.080.1144.0039.06-0.01-0.02
VillanovaBE0.040.1188.0086.620.030.08
Grambling St.SWAC0.160.1014.2917.11-0.11-0.07
Iowa St.B120.120.1072.0069.230.050.04
OklahomaB120.120.1083.3380.440.080.06
SouthernSWAC0.160.1063.6465.350.040.03
Southern MissCUSA0.160.1028.5730.34-0.07-0.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.160.1069.5771.830.060.05
Holy CrossPat0.130.0941.6739.59-0.02-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.090.0857.6958.190.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0825.0026.16-0.04-0.04
SamfordSC0.120.0838.4640.25-0.03-0.02
StetsonASun0.080.0821.7425.66-0.05-0.04
VMISC0.120.0819.0519.66-0.07-0.05
Northern ArizonaBSky0.120.089.0911.96-0.10-0.06
PennIvy0.130.0840.0039.62-0.03-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.130.0813.0414.58-0.09-0.06
Rhode IslandA100.080.0856.0055.660.010.01
LibertyBSth0.120.0837.5038.73-0.03-0.02
MarquetteBE0.080.0861.5456.600.020.01
Texas A&MSEC0.120.0872.0072.950.050.04
WashingtonP120.120.0860.0059.040.020.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.120.0886.9686.020.090.06
DelawareCAA0.090.0824.0024.18-0.05-0.04
IndianaB100.080.0880.0075.820.050.04
StanfordP120.040.0850.0046.650.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.040.0852.0049.600.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.120.0852.0050.510.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.120.0873.9172.350.060.03
Seton HallBE0.040.0870.8368.070.020.03
St. John'sBE0.120.0824.0023.69-0.06-0.04
DartmouthIvy0.090.0633.3332.89-0.03-0.02
ColgatePat0.090.0645.8347.12-0.01-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.040.0630.4334.38-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.040.0669.2371.010.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0684.0085.050.050.04
DavidsonA100.040.0659.0955.710.010.01
DetroitHorz0.040.0647.8346.26-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.040.0658.3358.870.010.01
FordhamA100.080.0650.0050.420.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.040.0613.6413.35-0.03-0.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.080.0640.0041.34-0.02-0.01
MassachusettsA100.040.0643.4842.31-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.040.0633.3331.74-0.01-0.02
PacificWCC0.040.0622.7324.73-0.02-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.080.0660.0062.090.020.01
PortlandWCC0.080.0638.4638.09-0.02-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.080.0633.3333.43-0.03-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.040.0682.6181.730.030.04
San DiegoWCC0.040.0629.1727.08-0.02-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0654.1750.260.010.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.080.0632.0031.18-0.03-0.02
The CitadelSC0.080.0629.1729.25-0.03-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.040.0670.8370.190.020.02
WoffordSC0.040.0648.0048.31-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.080.0538.1036.77-0.02-0.01
NJITASun0.040.0557.6957.310.010.01
Notre DameACC0.080.0572.0070.180.040.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0572.7371.580.040.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.080.0562.5063.540.020.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.0523.8129.48-0.04-0.02
ColoradoP120.000.0572.0066.650.000.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.040.0537.5038.17-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.040.0523.8124.32-0.02-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.040.0583.3382.060.030.03
HamptonMEAC0.000.0559.0961.340.000.01
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0548.0047.35-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.080.0558.3358.480.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0562.5059.800.000.01
La SalleA100.090.0518.1820.09-0.06-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.040.0547.8349.74-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.040.0564.0061.350.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0540.0039.49-0.02-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.040.0550.0051.470.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.040.0528.5735.02-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.080.0565.2264.670.020.02
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0544.0043.30-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.080.0560.8757.820.020.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.090.0584.0081.460.060.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0547.6250.56-0.000.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.040.0513.6414.93-0.03-0.04
UtahP120.090.0570.8368.550.040.02
Wichita St.MVC0.080.0570.8373.510.030.03
WyomingMWC0.040.0541.6741.64-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.080.0548.0048.33-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0528.0031.38-0.03-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.0535.0039.98-0.02-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.040.0523.0825.64-0.02-0.03
BaylorB120.040.0570.8365.330.020.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.040.0547.8343.64-0.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.080.0565.3863.470.020.01
DePaulBE0.080.0533.3333.86-0.03-0.02
DrakeMVC0.080.0520.0022.69-0.05-0.03
DukeACC0.080.0576.0073.090.040.02
Florida St.ACC0.040.0566.6763.280.010.01
IUPUISum0.080.0538.4638.52-0.02-0.01
KansasB120.040.0583.3381.420.030.03
Kansas St.B120.040.0556.0054.680.000.00
KentuckySEC0.040.0576.0074.450.020.03
ManhattanMAAC0.080.0547.8345.05-0.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.080.0564.0061.040.020.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0541.6741.41-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.040.0518.1825.29-0.02-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.080.0526.3232.38-0.04-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.040.0545.8351.18-0.000.00
PittsburghACC0.040.0572.7367.670.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.080.0573.0870.170.040.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0550.0051.120.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0512.5014.81-0.06-0.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.040.0518.1825.82-0.02-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.080.0573.6876.550.040.03
Texas TechB120.080.0562.5058.360.020.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0578.2675.550.040.03
VCUA100.040.0572.0071.480.020.02
VirginiaACC0.080.0580.0077.220.050.03
West VirginiaB120.040.0580.0078.490.020.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0335.0034.88-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.050.0328.0030.05-0.02-0.01
ArizonaP120.040.0380.0078.720.020.02
ArmyPat0.040.0356.0055.430.000.00
DaytonA100.040.0387.5083.680.030.02
FairfieldMAAC0.040.0356.0055.650.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.040.0341.6744.46-0.01-0.00
HofstraCAA0.040.0368.0067.350.010.01
LafayettePat0.040.0320.0020.81-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.040.0320.8322.68-0.02-0.02
MontanaBSky0.040.0361.9062.900.010.01
NavyPat0.040.0365.3865.340.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.040.0322.7322.61-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.040.0348.0045.69-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.040.0364.0060.170.010.01
UCLAP120.040.0354.1753.010.000.00
Washington St.P120.040.0334.7831.61-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.040.0325.0024.93-0.02-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.040.0347.6248.51-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.040.0356.0054.070.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.040.0352.0052.860.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.040.0330.4332.19-0.02-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.040.0375.0077.280.020.01
RiderMAAC0.040.0338.4641.33-0.01-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.040.0329.1730.14-0.02-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.040.0341.6737.79-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.040.0368.0065.640.010.01
ClemsonACC0.040.0360.0059.840.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.040.0362.5060.760.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0345.8346.51-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.040.0369.2369.940.020.01
LehighPat0.040.0339.1342.78-0.01-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.0376.0073.910.000.01
Miami FLACC0.040.0382.6177.560.030.01
MonmouthMAAC0.040.0380.7781.920.020.02
Montana St.BSky0.040.0345.8345.02-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.040.0332.0033.77-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.040.0361.9060.140.010.01
RadfordBSth0.040.0350.0051.760.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.040.0370.8370.070.020.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0340.9141.22-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.040.0373.9172.090.020.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.040.0347.8355.29-0.000.00
TroySB0.000.0326.0926.58-0.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.0380.0078.010.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.040.0325.0024.15-0.02-0.01
UTSACUSA0.040.0312.5012.74-0.03-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.040.0360.0060.860.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.040.0352.0048.970.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.040.0340.0039.15-0.01-0.01