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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Connecticut

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:22.0
Current RPI:22
Expected SOS:30
Current SOS:30
Current Record:26-8
Expected Record:26-8
Current Conf Record:14-7
Expected Conf Record:14-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-0
Current OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC RPI:16
Expected OOC SOS:78



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-822.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Connecticut.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Maryland (78.0)ACCN78-77W100%0.0
11-11Yale (147.0)IvyH80-62W100%0.0
11-14Detroit (230.0)HorzH101-55W100%0.0
11-17Boston University (84.0)PatH77-60W100%0.0
11-21Boston College (207.0)ACCN70-72W100%0.0
11-22Indiana (102.0)B10N58-59W100%0.0
11-26Loyola MD (274.0)PatH76-66W100%0.0
12-2Florida (1.0)SECH65-64W100%0.0
12-6Maine (330.0)AEH95-68W100%0.0
12-18Stanford (41.0)P12H51-53L0%0.0
12-22Washington (104.0)P12A70-82W100%0.0
12-28Eastern Washington (228.0)BSkyH82-65W100%0.0
12-31Houston (143.0)AmerA75-71L0%0.0
1-4SMU (53.0)AmerA74-65L0%0.0
1-8Harvard (46.0)IvyH61-56W100%0.0
1-11UCF (220.0)AmerH84-61W100%0.0
1-16Memphis (37.0)AmerA73-83W100%0.0
1-18Louisville (19.0)AmerH64-76L0%0.0
1-21Temple (175.0)AmerH90-66W100%0.0
1-25Rutgers (192.0)AmerA71-82W100%0.0
1-30Houston (143.0)AmerH80-43W100%0.0
2-6Cincinnati (21.0)AmerA63-58L0%0.0
2-9UCF (220.0)AmerA55-75W100%0.0
2-12South Florida (232.0)AmerH83-40W100%0.0
2-15Memphis (37.0)AmerH86-81W100%0.0
2-20Temple (175.0)AmerA55-68W100%0.0
2-23SMU (53.0)AmerH55-64L0%0.0
2-26South Florida (232.0)AmerA56-61W100%0.0
3-1Cincinnati (21.0)AmerH51-45W100%0.0
3-5Rutgers (192.0)AmerH69-63W100%0.0
3-8Louisville (19.0)AmerA81-48L0%0.0
3-13Memphis (37.0)AmerA53-72W100%0.0
3-14Cincinnati (21.0)AmerN56-58W100%0.0
3-15Louisville (19.0)AmerN71-61L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Connecticut's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Connecticut's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Connecticut.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ConnecticutAmer26.4826.4875.0075.0013.2413.24
LouisvilleAmer5.345.3483.8783.873.623.62
CincinnatiAmer5.305.3086.6786.673.883.88
MemphisAmer5.265.2678.5778.573.003.00
RutgersAmer3.953.9536.6736.67-1.05-1.05
HoustonAmer3.953.9551.6151.610.130.13
UCFAmer3.923.9240.7440.74-0.73-0.73
South FloridaAmer3.893.8940.0040.00-0.78-0.78
TempleAmer3.863.8631.0331.03-1.47-1.47
SMUAmer3.863.8670.0070.001.541.54
Boston UniversityPat1.601.6072.7372.730.730.73
WashingtonP121.591.5954.8454.840.150.15
HarvardIvy1.571.5789.2989.291.231.23
YaleIvy1.571.5753.8553.850.120.12
StanfordP121.561.5662.5062.500.390.39
Boston CollegeACC1.541.5423.3323.33-0.82-0.82
FloridaSEC1.541.5496.9796.971.451.45
DetroitHorz1.521.5237.9337.93-0.37-0.37
MarylandACC1.521.5253.3353.330.100.10
Eastern WashingtonBSky1.521.5246.4346.43-0.11-0.11
Loyola MDPat1.511.5135.7135.71-0.43-0.43
IndianaB101.491.4954.8454.840.140.14
MaineAE1.471.4718.5218.52-0.93-0.93
CornellIvy0.200.203.703.70-0.18-0.18
Oklahoma St.B120.190.1963.6463.640.050.05
ArmyPat0.190.1946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.170.1733.3333.33-0.06-0.06
HartfordAE0.170.1751.5251.520.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.170.1759.3859.380.030.03
PittsburghACC0.160.1673.5373.530.080.08
PennIvy0.150.1528.5728.57-0.07-0.07
Stony BrookAE0.150.1568.7568.750.060.06
PrincetonIvy0.150.1570.3770.370.060.06
ValparaisoHorz0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.150.1526.6726.67-0.07-0.07
UMass LowellAE0.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.140.1461.7661.760.030.03
LehighPat0.140.1443.7543.75-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.130.1338.4638.46-0.03-0.03
KentuckySEC0.130.1370.5970.590.050.05
Miami FLACC0.120.1251.5251.520.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.120.1216.6716.67-0.08-0.08
HowardMEAC0.120.1219.3519.35-0.07-0.07
Holy CrossPat0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
George WashingtonA100.120.1275.0075.000.060.06
LIU BrooklynNEC0.120.1231.0331.03-0.04-0.04
VirginiaACC0.120.1282.3582.350.080.08
BucknellPat0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
AmericanPat0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.110.1170.9770.970.050.05
NebraskaB100.110.1161.2961.290.030.03
Washington St.P120.110.1130.0030.00-0.05-0.05
North CarolinaACC0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
Texas A&MSEC0.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
HofstraCAA0.110.1130.3030.30-0.04-0.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
BrownIvy0.110.1151.8551.850.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
VermontAE0.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
ProvidenceBE0.100.1067.6567.650.040.04
Rhode IslandA100.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.100.1022.5822.58-0.05-0.05
UC IrvineBW0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
UICHorz0.090.0913.7913.79-0.07-0.07
ClemsonACC0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.090.0946.1546.15-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.090.0984.3884.380.060.06
ColgatePat0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
NavyPat0.090.0927.5927.59-0.04-0.04
ColoradoP120.090.0967.6567.650.030.03
UABCUSA0.090.0955.1755.170.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
Oregon St.P120.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
USCP120.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
UtahP120.090.0963.3363.330.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.090.0983.8783.870.060.06
CaliforniaP120.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.090.0925.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Texas St.SB0.090.0920.6920.69-0.05-0.05
FairfieldMAAC0.090.0921.8821.88-0.05-0.05
Arizona St.P120.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Chicago St.WAC0.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0913.7913.79-0.07-0.07
UCLAP120.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
AlabamaSEC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
AlbanyAE0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
New HampshireAE0.080.0817.2417.24-0.05-0.05
BinghamtonAE0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
UMBCAE0.080.0827.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Green BayHorz0.070.0777.7877.780.040.04
Idaho St.BSky0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
MontanaBSky0.070.0753.5753.570.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
ToledoMAC0.070.0781.2581.250.050.05
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0735.7135.71-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
TCUB120.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0735.7135.71-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.070.0781.8281.820.050.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.070.0748.1548.15-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.070.0717.8617.86-0.04-0.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
IllinoisB100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
MichiganB100.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
NorthwesternB100.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
ArkansasSEC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
ArizonaP120.070.0788.2488.240.050.05
AuburnSEC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SC0.070.0719.2319.23-0.04-0.04
CampbellBSth0.070.0732.1432.14-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.070.0781.8281.820.040.04
USC UpstateASun0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
XavierBE0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0680.6580.650.040.04
TennesseeSEC0.060.0662.5062.500.020.02
UMKCWAC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckySB0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
BryantNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
NJITind0.050.0536.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.03-0.03
Montana St.BSky0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.050.053.573.57-0.05-0.05
Weber St.BSky0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
DenverSum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
DukeACC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Kent St.MAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
TowsonCAA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
VillanovaBE0.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
Wake ForestACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.050.0534.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
PurdueB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
DrexelCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
George MasonA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.050.0576.4776.470.020.02
Penn St.B100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
North FloridaASun0.040.0446.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.040.0432.1432.14-0.02-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.040.0417.2417.24-0.03-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.040.0453.5753.570.000.00
Texas TechB120.040.0443.7543.75-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.040.0422.2222.22-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.040.0466.6766.670.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.040.0441.1841.18-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
MercerASun0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
FordhamA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
AkronMAC0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
TulsaCUSA0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
VCUA100.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0287.1087.100.020.02
TulaneCUSA0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
BYUWCC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
UC DavisBW0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
MississippiSEC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
RichmondA100.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00