Connecticut

Conference:	Amer
Expected RPI:	123.0
Current RPI:	123
Expected SOS:	32
Current SOS:	32
Current Record:	14-18
Expected Record:	14-18
Current Conf Record:	7-12
Expected Conf Record:	7-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-9
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-0
Current OOC Record:	7-6
Expected OOC Record:	7-6
Expected OOC RPI:	115
Expected OOC SOS:	35

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
14-18	123.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Connecticut.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Colgate (185.0)	Pat	H	70-58	W	100%
11-14	Stony Brook (208.0)	AE	H	72-64	W	100%
11-19	Boston University (212.0)	Pat	H	85-66	W	100%
11-23	Oregon (72.0)	P12	N	63-71	W	100%
11-24	Michigan St. (14.0)	B10	N	77-57	L	0%
11-26	Arkansas (30.0)	SEC	N	67-102	L	0%
11-29	Columbia (316.0)	Ivy	H	77-73	W	100%
12-2	Monmouth (199.0)	MAAC	H	84-81	W	100%
12-5	Syracuse (45.0)	ACC	N	63-72	L	0%
12-9	Coppin St. (343.0)	MEAC	H	72-59	W	100%
12-21	Arizona (13.0)	P12	A	73-58	L	0%
12-23	Auburn (15.0)	SEC	A	89-64	L	0%
12-30	Wichita St. (16.0)	Amer	H	62-72	L	0%
1-3	Tulsa (89.0)	Amer	A	90-88	L	0%
1-6	East Carolina (274.0)	Amer	H	70-65	W	100%
1-10	UCF (84.0)	Amer	H	62-53	W	100%
1-13	Tulane (175.0)	Amer	A	57-67	W	100%
1-16	Memphis (106.0)	Amer	A	73-49	L	0%
1-20	Villanova (2.0)	BE	H	61-81	L	0%
1-25	SMU (113.0)	Amer	H	63-52	W	100%
1-28	Temple (52.0)	Amer	A	85-57	L	0%
1-31	UCF (84.0)	Amer	A	70-61	L	0%
2-3	Cincinnati (6.0)	Amer	H	57-65	L	0%
2-7	South Florida (278.0)	Amer	H	68-65	W	100%
2-10	Wichita St. (16.0)	Amer	A	95-74	L	0%
2-15	Tulsa (89.0)	Amer	H	71-73	L	0%
2-18	East Carolina (274.0)	Amer	A	80-84	W	100%
2-22	Cincinnati (6.0)	Amer	A	77-52	L	0%
2-25	Memphis (106.0)	Amer	H	79-83	L	0%
2-28	Temple (52.0)	Amer	H	72-66	W	100%
3-4	Houston (18.0)	Amer	A	81-71	L	0%
3-8	SMU (113.0)	Amer	N	73-80	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Connecticut's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Connecticut's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Connecticut.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Connecticut	Amer	26.17	26.17	38.81	38.81	-5.86	-5.86
Cincinnati	Amer	3.95	3.95	87.50	87.50	2.96	2.96
Memphis	Amer	3.91	3.91	59.38	59.38	0.73	0.73
Temple	Amer	3.90	3.90	53.33	53.33	0.26	0.26
SMU	Amer	3.88	3.88	51.61	51.61	0.13	0.13
Wichita St.	Amer	3.88	3.88	76.67	76.67	2.07	2.07
UCF	Amer	3.87	3.87	60.00	60.00	0.77	0.77
Tulsa	Amer	3.83	3.83	58.62	58.62	0.66	0.66
East Carolina	Amer	3.82	3.82	35.71	35.71	-1.09	-1.09
Houston	Amer	2.46	2.46	78.12	78.12	1.38	1.38
Tulane	Amer	2.34	2.34	46.67	46.67	-0.16	-0.16
South Florida	Amer	2.34	2.34	32.26	32.26	-0.83	-0.83
Coppin St.	MEAC	1.68	1.68	16.13	16.13	-1.14	-1.14
Colgate	Pat	1.67	1.67	60.00	60.00	0.33	0.33
Auburn	SEC	1.66	1.66	77.42	77.42	0.91	0.91
Arizona	P12	1.66	1.66	78.79	78.79	0.95	0.95
Villanova	BE	1.64	1.64	87.88	87.88	1.24	1.24
Columbia	Ivy	1.64	1.64	28.00	28.00	-0.72	-0.72
Arkansas	SEC	1.64	1.64	66.67	66.67	0.55	0.55
Oregon	P12	1.63	1.63	66.67	66.67	0.54	0.54
Stony Brook	AE	1.62	1.62	40.00	40.00	-0.32	-0.32
Boston University	Pat	1.61	1.61	48.28	48.28	-0.06	-0.06
Michigan St.	B10	1.59	1.59	87.50	87.50	1.19	1.19
Syracuse	ACC	1.59	1.59	59.38	59.38	0.30	0.30
Monmouth	MAAC	1.56	1.56	36.67	36.67	-0.42	-0.42
Albany	AE	0.23	0.23	67.74	67.74	0.08	0.08
Bucknell	Pat	0.23	0.23	73.53	73.53	0.11	0.11
Alabama	SEC	0.21	0.21	55.88	55.88	0.03	0.03
UMBC	AE	0.17	0.17	67.74	67.74	0.06	0.06
USC	P12	0.16	0.16	67.65	67.65	0.06	0.06
Penn	Ivy	0.16	0.16	74.19	74.19	0.08	0.08
Navy	Pat	0.16	0.16	61.29	61.29	0.04	0.04
Lehigh	Pat	0.15	0.15	51.72	51.72	0.01	0.01
Lafayette	Pat	0.15	0.15	30.00	30.00	-0.06	-0.06
Rutgers	B10	0.15	0.15	42.42	42.42	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola MD	Pat	0.15	0.15	26.67	26.67	-0.07	-0.07
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.15	0.15	32.35	32.35	-0.05	-0.05
South Carolina	SEC	0.14	0.14	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.14	0.14	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
LSU	SEC	0.14	0.14	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
UCLA	P12	0.14	0.14	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Cornell	Ivy	0.13	0.13	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Army	Pat	0.13	0.13	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Holy Cross	Pat	0.13	0.13	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.12	0.12	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.12	0.12	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.12	0.12	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.12	0.12	71.43	71.43	0.05	0.05
Missouri	SEC	0.12	0.12	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Providence	BE	0.12	0.12	61.76	61.76	0.03	0.03
California	P12	0.12	0.12	25.81	25.81	-0.06	-0.06
Marquette	BE	0.12	0.12	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
New Orleans	Slnd	0.12	0.12	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Florida	SEC	0.12	0.12	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Maine	AE	0.11	0.11	13.33	13.33	-0.08	-0.08
Boston College	ACC	0.10	0.10	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
American	Pat	0.10	0.10	20.00	20.00	-0.06	-0.06
Illinois St.	MVC	0.10	0.10	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.10	0.10	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.10	0.10	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.10	0.10	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.10	0.10	25.00	25.00	-0.05	-0.05
Maryland	B10	0.10	0.10	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Notre Dame	ACC	0.10	0.10	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Mercer	SC	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.09	0.09	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.09	0.09	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
St. John's	BE	0.09	0.09	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.09	0.09	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Georgetown	BE	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Tennessee	SEC	0.09	0.09	75.76	75.76	0.05	0.05
Texas A&M	SEC	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.09	0.09	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
DePaul	BE	0.09	0.09	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Arizona St.	P12	0.09	0.09	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Colorado	P12	0.09	0.09	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Utah	P12	0.09	0.09	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Washington St.	P12	0.09	0.09	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Xavier	BE	0.09	0.09	84.85	84.85	0.06	0.06
Harvard	Ivy	0.09	0.09	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Brown	Ivy	0.09	0.09	38.46	38.46	-0.02	-0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.09	0.09	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Penn St.	B10	0.08	0.08	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Charlotte	CUSA	0.08	0.08	17.86	17.86	-0.05	-0.05
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	6.67	6.67	-0.07	-0.07
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
UMass Lowell	AE	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Binghamton	AE	0.08	0.08	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Vermont	AE	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Fairfield	MAAC	0.07	0.07	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.07	0.07	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.07	0.07	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Arkansas St.	SB	0.07	0.07	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.07	0.07	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Stetson	ASun	0.07	0.07	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
West Virginia	B12	0.07	0.07	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.07	0.07	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Virginia	ACC	0.07	0.07	93.94	93.94	0.06	0.06
Clemson	ACC	0.07	0.07	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Drexel	CAA	0.07	0.07	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.07	0.07	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
La Salle	A10	0.07	0.07	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Indiana	B10	0.07	0.07	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Colorado St.	MWC	0.07	0.07	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Seton Hall	BE	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.07	0.07	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.07	0.07	73.33	73.33	0.03	0.03
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.07	0.07	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.07	0.07	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Buffalo	MAC	0.07	0.07	75.76	75.76	0.04	0.04
Louisville	ACC	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.07	0.07	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Butler	BE	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Samford	SC	0.07	0.07	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Stanford	P12	0.07	0.07	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Washington	P12	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.06	0.06	23.08	23.08	-0.03	-0.03
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.06	0.06	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
Campbell	BSth	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Elon	CAA	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Hartford	AE	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
UTSA	CUSA	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
College of Charleston	CAA	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
UMKC	WAC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.05	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.05	0.05	13.33	13.33	-0.03	-0.03
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Cal Poly	BW	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.02	-0.02
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	8.00	8.00	-0.04	-0.04
Oakland	Horz	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
TCU	B12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.05	82.35	82.35	0.03	0.03
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.05	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.05	0.05	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Creighton	BE	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Fresno St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.05	0.05	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia St.	SB	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
NJIT	ASun	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Appalachian St.	SB	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Dayton	A10	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
FIU	CUSA	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.02	0.02	24.24	24.24	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.02	0.02	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
George Mason	A10	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.02	0.02	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.02	0.02	76.67	76.67	0.01	0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Murray St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	82.76	82.76	0.02	0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Winthrop	BSth	0.02	0.02	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.02	0.02	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.02	0.02	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
Iowa	B10	0.02	0.02	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Kansas	B12	0.02	0.02	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.02	0.02	32.00	32.00	-0.01	-0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.02	0.02	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Saint Louis	A10	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southern Utah	BSky	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.02	0.02	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
New Mexico	MWC	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.02	0.02	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Portland St.	BSky	0.02	0.02	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Troy	SB	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
UNLV	MWC	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.00	0.00