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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.


Connecticut

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:27.1
Current RPI:22
Expected SOS:2
Current SOS:3
Current Record:15-7
Expected Record:19-11
Current Conf Record:5-5
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Probability of Auto Bid:3.68%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-0
Current OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC RPI:6
Expected OOC SOS:6



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-77.80.12%
22-810.02.36%
21-914.312.07%
20-1020.325.84%
19-1127.530.79%
18-1235.919.85%
17-1346.37.68%
16-1458.51.22%
15-1572.80.06%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Connecticut.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Columbia (150.3)IvyH70-57W100%0.0
11-14Wagner (83.5)NECH78-66W100%0.0
11-17Maine (261.2)AEH80-60W100%0.0
11-20Coppin St. (214.5)MEACH87-70W100%0.0
11-24NC Asheville (115.4)BSthN73-63W100%0.0
11-25Central Florida (72.7)CUSAN63-68L0%0.0
11-26Florida St. (21.9)ACCN78-76W100%0.0
12-3Arkansas (65.9)SECH75-62W100%0.0
12-8Harvard (36.7)IvyH67-53W100%0.0
12-18Holy Cross (226.1)PatH77-40W100%0.0
12-22Fairfield (138.4)MAACH79-71W100%0.0
12-28South Florida (96.1)BEA57-60W100%0.0
12-31St. John's (151.1)BEH83-69W100%0.0
1-3Seton Hall (53.1)BEA75-63L0%0.0
1-7Rutgers (141.7)BEA67-60L0%0.0
1-9West Virginia (31.4)BEH64-57W100%0.0
1-14Notre Dame (66.5)BEA53-67W100%0.0
1-18Cincinnati (89.8)BEH67-70L0%0.0
1-21Tennessee (136.4)SECA60-57L0%0.0
1-29Notre Dame (66.5)BEH48-50L0%0.0
2-1Georgetown (13.9)BEA58-44L0%0.0
2-4Seton Hall (53.1)BEH69-46W100%0.0
2-6Louisville (25.3)BEA0-034%-4.5
2-11Syracuse (2.1)BEA0-015%-11.3
2-15DePaul (187.2)BEH0-091%14.6
2-18Marquette (15.5)BEH0-052%0.6
2-20Villanova (98.5)BEA0-053%0.8
2-25Syracuse (2.1)BEH0-034%-4.6
2-28Providence (146.8)BEA0-067%4.8
3-3Pittsburgh (74.5)BEH0-074%7.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Connecticut's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Connecticut's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Connecticut.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ConnecticutBE26.3426.0164.7761.227.785.83
Notre DameBE4.853.8666.6763.531.621.04
SyracuseBE0.353.8295.8393.140.323.30
Seton HallBE4.753.8266.6764.721.581.13
ProvidenceBE0.402.3056.5250.850.050.04
PittsburghBE0.402.2760.8759.220.090.42
RutgersBE2.632.2747.8345.04-0.11-0.22
DePaulBE0.352.2450.0044.000.00-0.27
LouisvilleBE0.352.2478.2672.880.201.02
West VirginiaBE2.622.2468.1867.350.950.78
MarquetteBE0.352.2279.1776.930.211.19
St. John'sBE2.482.2245.4541.62-0.23-0.37
CincinnatiBE2.572.2168.1864.320.940.63
South FloridaBE2.622.2157.1450.280.370.01
VillanovaBE0.302.2145.4546.04-0.03-0.18
GeorgetownBE2.522.2180.0076.541.511.17
HarvardIvy2.491.8195.0091.052.241.49
Holy CrossPat2.491.8142.8643.61-0.36-0.23
ColumbiaIvy2.381.7557.8956.830.380.24
TennesseeSEC2.321.7542.8642.75-0.33-0.25
MaineAE2.421.7552.6351.640.130.06
Florida St.ACC2.381.7376.1974.181.250.83
FairfieldMAAC2.321.7257.1456.240.330.22
Central FloridaCUSA2.381.7270.0065.370.950.53
ArkansasSEC2.271.6972.7367.321.030.59
NC AshevilleBSth2.321.6971.4370.241.000.69
WagnerNEC2.271.6986.3687.591.651.27
Coppin St.MEAC2.271.6744.4451.89-0.250.06
DartmouthIvy0.360.2314.2917.17-0.26-0.15
YaleIvy0.200.2072.2263.190.090.05
MemphisCUSA0.270.2069.5771.510.100.09
PennsylvaniaIvy0.110.2054.5556.840.010.03
PrincetonIvy0.210.2047.3752.87-0.010.01
AuburnSEC0.300.1956.5248.810.04-0.00
FloridaSEC0.150.1982.6177.630.100.11
BrownIvy0.110.1727.2723.80-0.05-0.09
MarshallCUSA0.150.1759.0959.720.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.250.1645.4541.20-0.02-0.03
New HampshireAE0.160.1535.0038.58-0.05-0.03
AmericanPat0.160.1565.2263.790.050.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.210.1562.5062.490.050.04
College of CharlestonSC0.210.1558.3359.980.030.03
ColgatePat0.110.1430.4329.50-0.04-0.06
AlbanyAE0.060.1460.0060.420.010.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.110.148.7012.13-0.09-0.11
ManhattanMAAC0.110.1468.0069.070.040.05
MonmouthNEC0.150.1428.0028.91-0.07-0.06
St. Francis NYNEC0.250.1456.5255.950.030.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.250.1444.0045.89-0.03-0.01
BryantNEC0.150.148.3310.86-0.12-0.11
KentuckySEC0.200.1495.8392.570.190.12
MississippiSEC0.050.1463.6456.710.010.02
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1469.5765.870.040.04
Louisiana St.SEC0.150.1459.0957.280.030.02
HartfordAE0.160.1217.3920.97-0.11-0.07
Norfolk St.MEAC0.120.1268.1869.680.040.05
Stony BrookAE0.160.1266.6768.050.050.04
Boston UniversityAE0.110.1248.0051.88-0.000.00
VermontAE0.160.1260.0062.490.030.03
LafayettePat0.160.1243.4842.95-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.160.1234.7833.43-0.05-0.04
CornellIvy0.170.1236.8441.45-0.04-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.150.1235.2939.85-0.04-0.02
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.210.1213.6416.35-0.15-0.08
LehighPat0.200.1273.9174.910.100.06
BucknellPat0.050.1173.9175.000.020.06
Boston CollegeACC0.110.1130.4326.44-0.04-0.05
St. Peter'sMAAC0.150.1121.7424.58-0.09-0.06
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.1170.8364.420.020.03
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.200.1133.3338.38-0.07-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.100.1168.1869.100.040.04
DukeACC0.150.1186.3683.090.110.07
FordhamA100.100.1140.9134.50-0.02-0.03
Miami FLACC0.100.1165.0060.020.030.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.1140.9139.56-0.00-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.050.1156.5255.200.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.150.1178.2672.340.090.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.150.1150.0058.160.000.02
HowardMEAC0.110.1018.1822.22-0.07-0.05
HamptonMEAC0.170.0936.3638.48-0.05-0.02
High PointBSth0.160.0931.8232.75-0.06-0.03
Loyola MDMAAC0.110.0977.2773.450.060.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.160.0952.3857.860.010.01
RadfordBSth0.100.098.7013.10-0.08-0.07
Virginia Military InstBSth0.100.0945.0044.15-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.050.0934.7834.61-0.02-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.110.0920.8320.60-0.06-0.05
Southern MississippiCUSA0.110.0985.7182.180.080.06
Long IslandNEC0.160.0970.8371.050.060.04
OklahomaB120.160.0959.0954.700.030.01
Old DominionCAA0.160.0960.0058.290.030.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.160.0959.0957.760.030.01
NC GreensboroSC0.160.0934.7833.46-0.05-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0826.0928.60-0.00-0.04
RiderMAAC0.050.0837.5038.52-0.01-0.02
DaytonA100.150.0860.8760.960.030.02
TulaneCUSA0.050.0861.9058.590.010.01
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0856.5257.720.000.01
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.150.0880.0078.060.090.05
Wake ForestACC0.150.0847.8343.66-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0834.7832.08-0.02-0.03
MarylandACC0.150.0859.0950.820.030.00
MissouriB120.100.0891.3087.180.080.06
DetroitHorz0.150.0847.8349.03-0.01-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0720.0019.96-0.00-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0725.0037.58-0.03-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0638.1042.78-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.110.0633.3337.25-0.04-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.110.0638.8943.93-0.02-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.110.060.004.02-0.11-0.06
CampbellBSth0.100.0656.0055.650.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0672.2271.970.020.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.110.0633.3334.47-0.04-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0634.7838.77-0.02-0.01
LibertyBSth0.100.0627.2727.21-0.05-0.03
CharlotteA100.110.0650.0049.450.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0610.0014.93-0.05-0.04
UtahP120.110.0618.1815.01-0.07-0.04
ArmyPat0.050.0640.9141.72-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.050.0644.4441.71-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.050.069.5213.19-0.04-0.04
UABCUSA0.050.0640.9139.82-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.100.0655.0060.330.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.100.0686.9683.160.080.04
OhioMAC0.000.0681.8277.200.000.03
PresbyterianBSth0.100.0640.9143.66-0.02-0.01
South Carolina UpstateASun0.100.0654.5556.090.010.01
Utah ValleyGWC0.110.0654.5557.690.010.01
KansasB120.110.0678.2678.390.060.03
StetsonASun0.110.0631.8231.31-0.04-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.100.0617.3919.81-0.07-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0645.4545.70-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0679.1780.100.030.03
NiagaraMAAC0.100.0637.5041.54-0.03-0.01
QuinnipiacNEC0.100.0656.5257.150.010.01
SienaMAAC0.050.0645.4545.55-0.00-0.01
HoustonCUSA0.100.0647.6244.63-0.00-0.01
IUPUISum0.050.0634.7835.50-0.02-0.02
Arizona St.P120.050.0630.4331.43-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticSB0.110.0636.3639.72-0.03-0.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0669.5761.310.020.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0628.5726.30-0.02-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0668.0070.030.020.02
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0621.7422.76-0.03-0.03
ClemsonACC0.050.0650.0048.360.00-0.00
Longwoodind0.100.0630.0027.84-0.04-0.02
MercerASun0.100.0670.8371.640.040.02
NorthwesternB100.100.0661.9055.140.020.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0681.8276.800.030.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0517.3924.41-0.03-0.03
Chicago St.GWC0.050.054.769.95-0.04-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0519.0522.37-0.03-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0517.3922.00-0.03-0.03
La SalleA100.000.0570.8368.820.000.02
OaklandSum0.100.0548.0050.21-0.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.050.0519.0524.61-0.03-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0540.9138.38-0.00-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.100.0581.8281.490.060.03
IndianaB100.100.0575.0075.780.050.03
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0571.4373.350.000.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.100.0526.3229.79-0.05-0.02
StanfordP120.000.0569.5768.290.000.02
IllinoisB100.060.0372.7364.430.030.01
PurdueB100.060.0365.2260.580.020.01
San Jose St.WAC0.060.0327.2726.95-0.03-0.02
TowsonCAA0.060.034.005.26-0.06-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0350.0048.900.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.060.0333.3333.82-0.02-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0334.7837.24-0.02-0.01
ElonSC0.060.0350.0047.590.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.060.0347.6248.83-0.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0354.1754.750.000.00
North TexasSB0.060.0350.0050.010.000.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0347.6246.46-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0356.5253.770.010.00
Southern MethodistCUSA0.050.0338.1037.86-0.01-0.01
Texas El PasoCUSA0.000.0343.4843.31-0.00-0.00
TulsaCUSA0.050.0360.8759.050.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0347.3742.16-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.050.0379.1778.100.030.02
HofstraCAA0.050.0332.0035.39-0.02-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0356.5254.220.010.00
Seattleind0.050.0323.5333.28-0.03-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0333.3335.97-0.02-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0350.0056.760.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0327.2735.02-0.02-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0381.8280.430.030.02
DelawareCAA0.000.0347.8350.65-0.000.00
East Tennessee St.ASun0.050.0352.3852.860.000.00
Georgia SouthernSC0.050.0340.0041.30-0.01-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.050.0339.1342.12-0.01-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.038.708.99-0.04-0.02
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.000.0319.0521.29-0.00-0.02
MassachusettsA100.050.0373.9168.580.020.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0376.1972.910.030.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.035.267.30-0.00-0.02
Penn St.B100.050.0341.6738.67-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0352.3852.870.000.00
St. LouisA100.000.0377.2777.670.000.02
TempleA100.000.0377.2775.060.000.01
Texas TechB120.000.0331.8225.98-0.00-0.01
The CitadelSC0.050.039.5211.44-0.04-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.000.0342.8639.66-0.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.050.0368.1867.910.020.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0330.0037.30-0.02-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0316.6723.02-0.03-0.01
ArizonaP120.050.0366.6768.550.020.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0337.5038.33-0.00-0.01
BaylorB120.050.0390.9183.850.040.02
ButlerHorz0.000.0350.0050.800.000.00
DuquesneA100.000.0359.0956.350.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0350.0051.730.000.00
GramblingSWAC0.050.0315.0015.73-0.03-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0362.5062.060.010.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0373.9168.430.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0334.7838.42-0.02-0.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0372.7368.280.020.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0371.4369.050.020.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0361.9067.230.000.01
Louisiana TechWAC0.050.0342.8643.45-0.01-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.050.0330.0034.15-0.02-0.01
MichiganB100.050.0372.7366.810.020.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0354.1757.200.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0345.4546.99-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.050.0347.8348.56-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0330.0031.54-0.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0362.5061.500.000.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0355.0054.480.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0345.4540.70-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0380.7780.750.030.02
RichmondA100.050.0350.0048.490.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0327.7829.58-0.02-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.0345.0046.13-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.034.359.66-0.00-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0360.8759.760.010.01
Texas A&MB120.050.0352.3846.150.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0318.1821.13-0.03-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0331.8242.13-0.02-0.00
UCLAP120.000.0354.5556.790.000.00
WashingtonP120.000.0369.5766.540.000.01
Western KentuckySB0.000.0334.7834.48-0.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.050.0312.5013.44-0.04-0.02
WisconsinB100.000.0375.0073.970.000.01
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.000.0335.0039.38-0.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0341.6740.61-0.01-0.01
XavierA100.050.0365.2263.740.020.01