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Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


Connecticut

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:139.2
Current RPI:242
Expected SOS:41
Current SOS:188
Current Record:2-4
Expected Record:11-18
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-2
Current OOC Record:2-4
Expected OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC RPI:197
Expected OOC SOS:53



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1036.00.02%
18-1145.60.14%
17-1260.00.70%
16-1369.11.68%
15-1482.74.30%
14-1597.48.30%
13-16112.214.92%
12-17128.818.55%
11-18145.619.13%
10-19162.815.25%
9-20180.79.80%
8-21199.14.74%
7-22216.51.92%
6-23233.00.41%
5-24247.90.11%
4-25262.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Connecticut.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Wagner (216.1)NECH58-67L0%0.0
11-14Northeastern (182.8)CAAH61-64L0%0.0
11-17Loyola Marymount (166.7)WCCA62-65W100%0.0
11-21Oklahoma St. (58.4)B12N90-98L0%0.0
11-23Oregon (34.2)P12N69-79L0%0.0
11-30Boston University (178.4)PatH51-49W100%0.0
12-5Syracuse (52.7)ACCN0-018%-11.0
12-10Ohio St. (39.3)B10A0-015%-12.6
12-18North Florida (255.3)ASunH0-086%13.2
12-23Auburn (88.3)SECH0-050%-0.1
12-28Houston (37.7)AmerH0-027%-7.3
12-31Tulsa (188.2)AmerA0-054%1.2
1-5Memphis (147.9)AmerA0-037%-3.8
1-8UCF (45.0)AmerH0-034%-4.9
1-11Temple (54.0)AmerH0-044%-1.7
1-14Georgetown (97.1)BEA0-024%-8.3
1-19SMU (59.0)AmerA0-020%-10.1
1-22East Carolina (174.1)AmerH0-069%6.0
1-25South Florida (267.6)AmerA0-070%6.3
1-28Tulane (283.2)AmerH0-085%12.7
2-4Cincinnati (18.5)AmerA0-08%-16.5
2-8South Florida (267.6)AmerH0-085%12.6
2-11UCF (45.0)AmerA0-018%-11.2
2-16Memphis (147.9)AmerH0-058%2.4
2-19Temple (54.0)AmerA0-025%-8.0
2-22Houston (37.7)AmerA0-013%-13.6
2-25SMU (59.0)AmerH0-037%-3.9
3-1East Carolina (174.1)AmerA0-049%-0.3
3-5Cincinnati (18.5)AmerH0-020%-10.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Connecticut's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Connecticut's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Connecticut.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ConnecticutAmer29.3226.2929.4137.68-12.07-6.48
UCFAmer0.004.2785.7176.390.002.26
TempleAmer0.004.2775.0064.900.001.27
CincinnatiAmer0.004.2587.5082.120.002.73
East CarolinaAmer0.004.2577.7850.530.000.05
MemphisAmer0.004.2575.0055.720.000.49
SMUAmer0.004.2466.6766.550.001.40
HoustonAmer0.004.2485.7178.160.002.39
South FloridaAmer0.004.2457.1434.040.00-1.35
TulsaAmer0.002.6650.0037.750.00-0.65
TulaneAmer0.002.6312.5024.26-0.00-1.36
SyracuseACC0.001.8171.4366.190.000.59
Boston UniversityPat9.381.8150.0056.860.000.25
GeorgetownBE1.121.8155.5646.970.12-0.11
NortheasternCAA9.521.7842.8642.48-1.36-0.27
Oklahoma St.B128.331.7866.6752.742.780.10
North FloridaASun0.001.7812.5035.60-0.00-0.51
AuburnSEC0.001.7685.7157.690.000.27
OregonP128.331.7571.4371.293.570.75
Loyola MarymountWCC8.331.7250.0048.100.00-0.07
Ohio St.B100.001.7287.5068.060.000.62
WagnerNEC8.331.7220.0052.72-5.000.09
StetsonASun0.000.1828.5728.24-0.00-0.08
George WashingtonA100.000.1755.5641.690.00-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.000.1775.0056.590.000.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.17100.0078.850.000.10
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1766.6761.550.000.04
OklahomaB120.000.1771.4348.350.00-0.01
VillanovaBE0.000.17100.0084.840.000.12
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.1516.6739.78-0.00-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.000.1585.7166.190.000.05
LSUSEC0.000.1571.4349.170.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.690.1571.4358.600.300.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.1522.2221.23-0.00-0.08
ElonCAA0.000.1471.4359.470.000.03
TCUB120.000.14100.0061.680.000.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.140.0017.61-0.00-0.09
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.1225.0030.23-0.00-0.05
LIU BrooklynNEC1.120.1271.4355.820.480.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.1214.2938.26-0.00-0.03
LipscombASun0.000.1212.5033.04-0.00-0.04
NJITASun0.000.1250.0049.780.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.1244.4441.30-0.00-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.1214.2932.19-0.00-0.04
DelawareCAA0.000.1250.0041.990.00-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.000.1275.0070.620.000.05
Boise St.MWC0.520.1242.8656.04-0.070.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.120.0022.58-0.00-0.06
CornellIvy0.520.1128.5729.95-0.22-0.05
Iowa St.B120.000.1171.4368.070.000.04
PennIvy0.000.1133.3356.57-0.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.1162.5069.130.000.04
StanfordP120.000.1166.6758.060.000.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1183.3377.100.000.06
USCP120.000.11100.0076.680.000.06
West VirginiaB120.000.1185.7183.660.000.08
St. John'sBE0.000.1137.5037.03-0.00-0.03
MarylandB100.600.1187.5059.330.450.02
AlbanyAE0.000.1142.8661.11-0.000.02
ButlerBE0.000.11100.0074.440.000.05
DePaulBE0.000.1166.6735.430.00-0.03
MississippiSEC0.000.1175.0048.500.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.000.1175.0049.180.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.000.1187.5078.510.000.06
WisconsinB100.000.1177.7876.040.000.06
XavierBE0.000.1187.5070.890.000.05
AmericanPat0.690.0914.2931.35-0.50-0.03
RiderMAAC0.690.0950.0048.810.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.600.0940.0041.93-0.12-0.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0925.0022.93-0.00-0.05
ArmyPat0.520.0942.8650.09-0.070.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0942.8660.54-0.000.02
ColgatePat0.000.0912.5029.71-0.00-0.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0916.6730.34-0.00-0.03
Holy CrossPat0.000.0937.5047.37-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.000.0925.0037.38-0.00-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0925.0043.41-0.00-0.01
BaylorB120.520.09100.0076.590.520.05
HarvardIvy0.000.0920.0046.79-0.00-0.01
VermontAE0.000.0962.5071.320.000.04
New HampshireAE0.000.0957.1458.840.000.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0975.0048.030.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.600.0987.5081.960.450.05
Texas TechB120.000.0987.5062.040.000.02
UCLAP120.000.09100.0086.690.000.06
AlabamaSEC0.000.0857.1451.790.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0857.1436.010.00-0.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0855.5658.610.000.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0857.1442.530.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.520.080.0018.64-0.52-0.05
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0857.1429.790.00-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0850.0056.740.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0887.5065.250.000.03
IowaB100.000.0837.5037.74-0.00-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0814.2943.58-0.00-0.01
La SalleA100.000.0866.6755.540.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0871.4354.860.000.01
MercerSC0.000.0842.8647.76-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.000.0875.0066.460.000.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0857.1471.520.000.04
Penn St.B100.000.0866.6746.420.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.0850.0059.920.000.02
BryantNEC0.000.0625.0047.82-0.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0633.3332.92-0.00-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0657.1471.940.000.03
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0657.1459.280.000.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0611.1148.19-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0622.2241.71-0.00-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0637.5033.74-0.00-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0614.2926.74-0.00-0.03
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0633.3339.94-0.00-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.690.0622.2238.49-0.39-0.01
BYUWCC0.000.0662.5066.900.000.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.06100.0091.920.000.05
PacificWCC0.000.0642.8646.14-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.0642.8633.23-0.00-0.02
PortlandWCC0.000.0650.0054.070.000.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.06100.0089.330.000.05
San DiegoWCC0.000.0637.5031.23-0.00-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0685.7153.560.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0633.3332.35-0.00-0.02
FloridaSEC0.000.0687.5075.240.000.03
Miami FLACC0.000.0675.0066.100.000.02
Texas St.SB0.000.0650.0043.390.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0675.0086.710.000.04
BucknellPat0.000.0666.6766.340.000.02
LafayettePat0.000.0633.3333.36-0.00-0.02
LehighPat0.000.0642.8666.67-0.000.02
Loyola MDPat0.000.0642.8645.94-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0642.8645.56-0.00-0.01
TroySB0.000.0642.8636.19-0.00-0.02
MaineAE1.120.0614.2924.15-0.80-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.600.0675.0051.040.300.00
Arizona St.P120.000.0662.5040.460.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0685.7162.220.000.01
ColoradoP120.000.0675.0062.620.000.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0650.0040.600.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0662.5046.900.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0662.5043.220.00-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0612.5030.68-0.00-0.02
KansasB120.000.0687.5075.860.000.03
Kansas St.B120.000.0687.5059.310.000.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0633.3348.07-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.060.0034.47-0.00-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.0642.8630.92-0.00-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0642.8637.34-0.00-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0614.2931.28-0.00-0.02
SeattleWAC0.000.0616.6739.49-0.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.0650.0046.020.00-0.00
TexasB120.000.0657.1438.680.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0642.8653.19-0.000.00
UtahP120.000.0675.0059.790.000.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0633.3346.01-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.520.0640.0041.12-0.10-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0657.1448.500.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0628.5741.52-0.00-0.01
BrownIvy0.000.0655.5646.970.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0671.4351.460.000.00
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0076.630.000.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0612.5037.99-0.00-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0633.3352.11-0.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0657.1452.030.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0625.0031.41-0.00-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.0614.2942.67-0.00-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.0687.5075.590.000.03
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0625.0034.40-0.00-0.02
MarquetteBE0.000.0675.0066.410.000.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0628.5732.62-0.00-0.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0687.5068.020.000.02
NebraskaB100.000.0657.1444.890.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0020.75-0.00-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0633.3327.06-0.00-0.03
PurdueB100.000.0675.0075.340.000.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0642.8645.30-0.00-0.01
SamfordSC0.000.0662.5056.520.000.01
Seton HallBE0.000.0671.4354.560.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0650.0066.300.000.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.060.0033.85-0.00-0.02
YaleIvy0.000.0642.8663.41-0.000.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0342.8647.11-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.690.0371.4359.880.300.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0314.2936.02-0.00-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0333.3354.32-0.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.0362.5051.790.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0328.5742.90-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0371.4360.540.000.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0360.0067.760.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0350.0046.410.00-0.00
Little RockSB0.000.0366.6761.330.000.01
NevadaMWC1.390.0377.7871.970.770.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.030.0022.31-0.00-0.02
Portland St.BSky1.390.0340.0043.41-0.28-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0024.64-0.00-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0325.0055.33-0.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0362.5067.390.000.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0337.5044.39-0.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.600.0357.1450.420.090.00
ArizonaP120.000.0375.0068.370.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.030.0023.69-0.00-0.02
CampbellBSth0.600.0342.8639.20-0.09-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.600.0312.5030.39-0.45-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0366.6740.030.00-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.520.0357.1454.360.070.00
MontanaBSky0.000.0325.0048.10-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.000.0385.7177.150.000.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0342.8650.12-0.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.0340.0058.82-0.000.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0325.0020.78-0.00-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.520.0328.5738.15-0.22-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0375.0061.490.000.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0362.5043.800.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.520.0385.7174.990.370.01
WashingtonP120.000.0357.1452.370.000.00
Washington St.P120.000.0342.8628.98-0.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0375.0066.370.000.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0371.4354.860.000.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0325.0038.83-0.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0017.13-0.00-0.02
DukeACC0.000.0388.8978.400.000.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0350.0050.840.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0350.0060.620.000.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0316.6744.34-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.000.0362.5050.710.000.00
IndianaB100.000.0387.5074.490.000.01
KentuckySEC0.000.0387.5082.800.000.02
NorthwesternB100.000.0375.0066.170.000.01
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0077.380.000.02
RutgersB100.000.0385.7145.370.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0027.12-0.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0366.6766.180.000.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0357.1467.260.000.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0371.4356.260.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0350.0046.240.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.0385.7162.990.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0375.0054.490.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0328.5723.12-0.00-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0342.8638.17-0.00-0.01