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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Connecticut

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:77.0
Current RPI:77
Expected SOS:53
Current SOS:53
Current Record:20-14
Expected Record:20-14
Current Conf Record:13-9
Expected Conf Record:13-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:5-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-1
Current OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:123
Expected OOC SOS:73



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-1477.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Connecticut.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Bryant (189.0)NECH66-53W100%0.0
11-20College of Charleston (298.0)CAAN65-57W100%0.0
11-21Dayton (32.0)A10N75-64W100%0.0
11-23West Virginia (24.0)B12N78-68L0%0.0
11-30Texas (42.0)B12H54-55L0%0.0
12-5Yale (64.0)IvyH44-45L0%0.0
12-14Coppin St. (311.0)MEACH106-85W100%0.0
12-18Duke (6.0)ACCN56-66L0%0.0
12-22Columbia (196.0)IvyH80-65W100%0.0
12-28Central Connecticut (342.0)NECH81-48W100%0.0
12-31Temple (34.0)AmerH53-57L0%0.0
1-3Florida (72.0)SECA59-63W100%0.0
1-6South Florida (273.0)AmerA44-58W100%0.0
1-10Cincinnati (37.0)AmerH62-56W100%0.0
1-13Tulsa (45.0)AmerA66-58L0%0.0
1-17Stanford (59.0)P12A72-59L0%0.0
1-22UCF (257.0)AmerH67-60W100%0.0
1-25South Florida (273.0)AmerH66-53W100%0.0
1-29Cincinnati (37.0)AmerA70-58L0%0.0
2-1Houston (239.0)AmerA70-68L0%0.0
2-4East Carolina (219.0)AmerH65-52W100%0.0
2-7Tulane (214.0)AmerA53-62W100%0.0
2-12Tulsa (45.0)AmerH70-45W100%0.0
2-14SMU (12.0)AmerA73-55L0%0.0
2-19Memphis (83.0)AmerA75-72L0%0.0
2-22Tulane (214.0)AmerH67-60W100%0.0
2-25East Carolina (219.0)AmerA49-60W100%0.0
3-1SMU (12.0)AmerH81-73W100%0.0
3-5Memphis (83.0)AmerH53-54L0%0.0
3-7Temple (34.0)AmerA75-63L0%0.0
3-12South Florida (273.0)AmerH69-43W100%0.0
3-13Cincinnati (37.0)AmerH57-54W100%0.0
3-14Tulsa (45.0)AmerH47-42W100%0.0
3-15SMU (12.0)AmerH54-62L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Connecticut's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Connecticut's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Connecticut.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ConnecticutAmer26.5426.5454.7954.792.552.55
SMUAmer5.305.3082.7682.763.473.47
TulsaAmer5.235.2375.0075.002.612.61
South FloridaAmer5.195.1928.5728.57-2.22-2.22
CincinnatiAmer5.165.1672.4172.412.312.31
TempleAmer3.953.9567.7467.741.401.40
East CarolinaAmer3.883.8841.3841.38-0.67-0.67
MemphisAmer3.813.8153.3353.330.250.25
TulaneAmer3.783.7850.0050.000.000.00
HoustonAmer2.532.5338.7138.71-0.57-0.57
UCFAmer2.432.4339.2939.29-0.52-0.52
YaleIvy1.571.5765.5265.520.490.49
Central ConnecticutNEC1.571.5716.6716.67-1.04-1.04
BryantNEC1.541.5453.3353.330.100.10
TexasB121.541.5459.3859.380.290.29
DukeACC1.541.5487.5087.501.151.15
West VirginiaB121.541.5470.9770.970.640.64
ColumbiaIvy1.521.5246.1546.15-0.12-0.12
StanfordP121.521.5258.0658.060.240.24
FloridaSEC1.501.5050.0050.000.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA1.491.4928.1228.12-0.65-0.65
Coppin St.MEAC1.471.4724.1424.14-0.76-0.76
DaytonA101.471.4778.1278.120.830.83
North Carolina St.ACC0.210.2160.6160.610.040.04
Oklahoma St.B120.210.2156.6756.670.030.03
HofstraCAA0.190.1960.6160.610.040.04
WagnerNEC0.190.1931.0331.03-0.07-0.07
St. Francis PANEC0.190.1950.0050.000.000.00
HarvardIvy0.170.1774.0774.070.080.08
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.160.1675.8675.860.080.08
OklahomaB120.160.1668.7568.750.060.06
BaylorB120.160.1671.8871.880.070.07
KansasB120.160.1676.4776.470.080.08
BrownIvy0.150.1537.9337.93-0.04-0.04
PennIvy0.150.1532.1432.14-0.05-0.05
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.150.1525.8125.81-0.07-0.07
Sacred HeartNEC0.140.1445.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.140.1425.0025.00-0.07-0.07
Florida St.ACC0.140.1451.5251.520.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.140.1440.0040.00-0.03-0.03
TowsonCAA0.140.1435.4835.48-0.04-0.04
MississippiSEC0.140.1462.5062.500.030.03
Texas TechB120.140.1440.6240.62-0.03-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
St. Francis NYNEC0.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.120.1234.3834.38-0.04-0.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
WashingtonP120.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.120.1287.1087.100.090.09
KentuckySEC0.120.12100.00100.000.120.12
Wake ForestACC0.120.1240.6240.62-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.120.1254.5554.550.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.110.1193.9493.940.100.10
North CarolinaACC0.110.1168.5768.570.040.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.110.1156.6756.670.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
VCUA100.110.1174.2974.290.060.06
Iowa St.B120.110.1175.7675.760.060.06
DelawareCAA0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
CornellIvy0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
DetroitHorz0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.100.1067.8667.860.030.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.090.0925.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.090.0941.1841.18-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0924.1424.14-0.05-0.05
UABCUSA0.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
Notre DameACC0.090.0985.2985.290.060.06
Texas SouthernSWAC0.090.0964.7164.710.030.03
Kansas St.B120.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
LSUSEC0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
La SalleA100.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0725.9325.93-0.04-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.0718.7518.75-0.04-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.076.906.90-0.06-0.06
AmericanPat0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
DenverSum0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.0758.3358.330.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Seton HallBE0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
DavidsonA100.070.0776.6776.670.040.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
IndianaB100.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
LamarSlnd0.070.0742.3142.31-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0752.9452.940.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
WyomingMWC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
XavierBE0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
CaliforniaP120.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
WoffordSC0.070.0781.2581.250.040.04
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
UNLVMWC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
ElonCAA0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
DrexelCAA0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
HartfordAE0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
NJITind0.050.0556.0056.000.010.01
VermontAE0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
LafayettePat0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
OregonP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
HawaiiBW0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
ArmyPat0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
PittsburghACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
ArizonaP120.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
Arizona St.P120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0586.6786.670.030.03
UCLAP120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
USCP120.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Washington St.P120.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0523.0823.08-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.040.0436.6736.67-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.040.0430.0030.00-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.040.0429.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.040.0438.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.040.0475.0075.000.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.040.0467.6567.650.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.040.0470.0070.000.020.02
Saint LouisA100.040.0432.2632.26-0.02-0.02
SyracuseACC0.040.0458.0658.060.010.01
VillanovaBE0.040.0494.1294.120.040.04
BucknellPat0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
ColgatePat0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
LehighPat0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0260.7160.710.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
New HampshireAE0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
RiderMAAC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
UMBCAE0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
BYUWCC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
ColoradoP120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.020.0283.3383.330.020.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.020.0239.2939.29-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
South DakotaSum0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
VMISC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.020.0216.6716.67-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
George WashingtonA100.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
IowaB100.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
LipscombASun0.020.0239.2939.29-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
MassachusettsA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
MissouriSEC0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Texas St.SB0.020.0239.2939.29-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.020.0229.6329.63-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
VirginiaACC0.020.0290.6290.620.020.02
WisconsinB100.020.0291.1891.180.020.02