Connecticut

Conference:	BE
Expected RPI:	49.0
Current RPI:	49
Expected SOS:	29
Current SOS:	29
Current Record:	20-10
Expected Record:	20-10
Current Conf Record:	10-8
Expected Conf Record:	10-8
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	5-0
Current OOC Record:	10-2
Expected OOC Record:	10-2
Expected OOC RPI:	26
Expected OOC SOS:	56

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
20-10	49.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Connecticut.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Michigan St. (9.0)	B10	N	66-62	W	100%
11-13	Vermont (134.0)	AE	H	67-49	W	100%
11-16	Wake Forest (170.0)	ACC	N	77-71	W	100%
11-18	Quinnipiac (191.0)	NEC	N	83-89	W	100%
11-19	New Mexico (2.0)	MWC	N	60-66	L	0%
11-25	Stony Brook (81.0)	AE	H	73-62	W	100%
11-29	New Hampshire (293.0)	AE	H	61-53	W	100%
12-4	North Carolina St. (33.0)	ACC	N	65-69	L	0%
12-7	Harvard (93.0)	Ivy	H	57-49	W	100%
12-17	Maryland Eastern Shore (345.0)	MEAC	H	84-50	W	100%
12-21	Fordham (228.0)	A10	H	88-73	W	100%
12-29	Washington (88.0)	P12	H	61-53	W	100%
1-1	Marquette (13.0)	BE	A	82-76	L	0%
1-8	DePaul (204.0)	BE	H	99-78	W	100%
1-12	Notre Dame (35.0)	BE	A	58-65	W	100%
1-14	Louisville (3.0)	BE	H	58-73	L	0%
1-19	Pittsburgh (44.0)	BE	A	69-61	L	0%
1-27	Rutgers (109.0)	BE	H	66-54	W	100%
1-31	Providence (91.0)	BE	A	79-82	W	100%
2-3	South Florida (156.0)	BE	H	69-64	W	100%
2-6	St. John's (96.0)	BE	A	71-65	L	0%
2-10	Seton Hall (138.0)	BE	A	67-78	W	100%
2-13	Syracuse (14.0)	BE	H	66-58	W	100%
2-16	Villanova (52.0)	BE	H	61-70	L	0%
2-21	Cincinnati (50.0)	BE	H	73-66	W	100%
2-23	DePaul (204.0)	BE	A	69-81	W	100%
2-27	Georgetown (11.0)	BE	H	78-79	L	0%
3-2	Cincinnati (50.0)	BE	A	61-56	L	0%
3-6	South Florida (156.0)	BE	A	65-51	L	0%
3-9	Providence (91.0)	BE	H	63-59	W	100%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Connecticut's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Connecticut's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Connecticut.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Connecticut	BE	26.00	26.00	64.06	64.06	7.31	7.31
Cincinnati	BE	3.96	3.96	67.74	67.74	1.41	1.41
South Florida	BE	3.88	3.88	37.93	37.93	-0.94	-0.94
Providence	BE	3.87	3.87	58.62	58.62	0.67	0.67
DePaul	BE	3.85	3.85	36.67	36.67	-1.03	-1.03
Seton Hall	BE	2.40	2.40	46.88	46.88	-0.15	-0.15
Syracuse	BE	2.34	2.34	76.47	76.47	1.24	1.24
Notre Dame	BE	2.34	2.34	75.76	75.76	1.21	1.21
Villanova	BE	2.32	2.32	58.06	58.06	0.37	0.37
Pittsburgh	BE	2.31	2.31	74.19	74.19	1.12	1.12
Rutgers	BE	2.31	2.31	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Louisville	BE	2.31	2.31	84.85	84.85	1.61	1.61
St. John's	BE	2.29	2.29	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Georgetown	BE	2.29	2.29	80.00	80.00	1.37	1.37
Marquette	BE	2.26	2.26	73.33	73.33	1.06	1.06
Vermont	AE	1.87	1.87	67.74	67.74	0.66	0.66
Stony Brook	AE	1.80	1.80	79.31	79.31	1.06	1.06
New Hampshire	AE	1.80	1.80	29.63	29.63	-0.73	-0.73
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	1.77	1.77	7.41	7.41	-1.51	-1.51
Fordham	A10	1.75	1.75	23.33	23.33	-0.93	-0.93
Wake Forest	ACC	1.74	1.74	43.33	43.33	-0.23	-0.23
North Carolina St.	ACC	1.72	1.72	69.70	69.70	0.68	0.68
Harvard	Ivy	1.72	1.72	69.23	69.23	0.66	0.66
New Mexico	MWC	1.72	1.72	84.85	84.85	1.20	1.20
Quinnipiac	NEC	1.69	1.69	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Washington	P12	1.69	1.69	56.25	56.25	0.21	0.21
Michigan St.	B10	1.67	1.67	77.42	77.42	0.91	0.91
Albany	AE	0.27	0.27	70.59	70.59	0.11	0.11
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.27	0.27	23.33	23.33	-0.15	-0.15
Boston University	AE	0.25	0.25	58.62	58.62	0.04	0.04
Maine	AE	0.22	0.22	34.48	34.48	-0.07	-0.07
Boston College	ACC	0.22	0.22	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.19	0.19	6.90	6.90	-0.17	-0.17
Hartford	AE	0.19	0.19	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
Brown	Ivy	0.17	0.17	44.44	44.44	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland	ACC	0.16	0.16	64.71	64.71	0.05	0.05
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.16	0.16	48.00	48.00	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.16	0.16	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.16	0.16	34.38	34.38	-0.05	-0.05
Holy Cross	Pat	0.14	0.14	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Princeton	Ivy	0.14	0.14	59.26	59.26	0.03	0.03
Bryant	NEC	0.14	0.14	63.33	63.33	0.04	0.04
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.14	0.14	31.03	31.03	-0.05	-0.05
Massachusetts	A10	0.14	0.14	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.14	0.14	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.13	0.13	32.26	32.26	-0.05	-0.05
Fairfield	MAAC	0.13	0.13	55.88	55.88	0.02	0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.13	0.13	27.59	27.59	-0.06	-0.06
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.13	0.13	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Monmouth	NEC	0.13	0.13	32.26	32.26	-0.05	-0.05
Duke	ACC	0.13	0.13	84.38	84.38	0.09	0.09
Oregon	P12	0.13	0.13	76.47	76.47	0.07	0.07
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.12	0.12	29.63	29.63	-0.05	-0.05
Yale	Ivy	0.12	0.12	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.11	0.11	29.03	29.03	-0.05	-0.05
Howard	MEAC	0.11	0.11	20.69	20.69	-0.07	-0.07
Manhattan	MAAC	0.11	0.11	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.11	0.11	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Western Michigan	MAC	0.11	0.11	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Central Florida	CUSA	0.11	0.11	62.07	62.07	0.03	0.03
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.11	0.11	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Long Island	NEC	0.11	0.11	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.11	0.11	52.94	52.94	0.01	0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.11	0.11	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.11	0.11	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Xavier	A10	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.10	0.10	78.79	78.79	0.06	0.06
Florida St.	ACC	0.10	0.10	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.10	0.10	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Michigan	B10	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Purdue	B10	0.10	0.10	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.10	0.10	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Miami FL	ACC	0.10	0.10	81.82	81.82	0.06	0.06
Southern California	P12	0.10	0.10	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.10	0.10	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Cornell	Ivy	0.09	0.09	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Columbia	Ivy	0.09	0.09	38.46	38.46	-0.02	-0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.09	0.09	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
American	Pat	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Iona	MAAC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.08	0.08	31.25	31.25	-0.03	-0.03
Robert Morris	NEC	0.08	0.08	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Bowling Green	MAC	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Lehigh	Pat	0.08	0.08	68.97	68.97	0.03	0.03
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Indiana	B10	0.08	0.08	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Nebraska	B10	0.08	0.08	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.08	0.08	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
George Washington	A10	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.08	0.08	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.08	0.08	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.08	0.08	17.24	17.24	-0.05	-0.05
Canisius	MAAC	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
UCLA	P12	0.08	0.08	73.53	73.53	0.04	0.04
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.08	0.08	13.79	13.79	-0.06	-0.06
Detroit	Horz	0.08	0.08	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Temple	A10	0.08	0.08	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
St. Louis	A10	0.08	0.08	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Chicago St.	GWC	0.08	0.08	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Western Kentucky	SB	0.08	0.08	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.08	0.08	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Virginia	ACC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Washington St.	P12	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Colorado St.	MWC	0.07	0.07	74.19	74.19	0.04	0.04
Nevada	MWC	0.07	0.07	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.07	0.07	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Wyoming	MWC	0.07	0.07	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.06	0.06	67.86	67.86	0.02	0.02
California	P12	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.06	0.06	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Butler	A10	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.05	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Siena	MAAC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Texas	B12	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.05	28.12	28.12	-0.02	-0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Delaware	CAA	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
UC Riverside	BW	0.05	0.05	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
Wichita St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Mercer	ASun	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Wagner	NEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	10.00	10.00	-0.04	-0.04
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Campbell	BSth	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	17.86	17.86	-0.03	-0.03
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Fresno St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
St. Mary's	WCC	0.03	0.03	81.25	81.25	0.02	0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Hawaii	BW	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Baylor	B12	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Charlotte	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
High Point	BSth	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Liberty	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
Radford	BSth	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Texas St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Illinois	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Cal Poly	BW	0.03	0.03	55.17	55.17	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Seattle	WAC	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Utah	P12	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Brigham Young	WCC	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Davidson	SC	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Florida International	SB	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Idaho	WAC	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri	SEC	0.02	0.02	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Portland	WCC	0.02	0.02	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Samford	SC	0.02	0.02	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.02	0.02	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Valparaiso	Horz	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Long Beach St.	BW	0.02	0.02	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00