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Through games of Nov 23, 2014.


Connecticut

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:23.1
Current RPI:11
Expected SOS:20
Current SOS:14
Current Record:3-1
Expected Record:21-9
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:3-1
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:17
Expected OOC SOS:5



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
28-22.00.04%
27-32.90.33%
26-44.51.33%
25-55.93.46%
24-68.58.49%
23-711.914.11%
22-816.318.66%
21-921.918.92%
20-1029.115.77%
19-1137.59.84%
18-1248.15.64%
17-1360.12.28%
16-1472.20.77%
15-1587.10.31%
14-1692.00.03%
12-18126.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Connecticut.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Bryant (174.8)NECH66-53W100%0.0
11-20College of Charleston (142.0)CAAN65-57W100%0.0
11-21Dayton (41.0)A10N75-64W100%0.0
11-23West Virginia (23.3)B12N78-68L0%0.0
11-30Texas (6.8)B12H0-042%-2.4
12-5Yale (62.0)IvyH0-079%9.6
12-14Coppin St. (277.9)MEACH0-099%26.4
12-18Duke (3.2)ACCN0-020%-10.0
12-22Columbia (118.9)IvyN0-078%9.2
12-28Central Connecticut (321.0)NECH0-099%26.7
12-31Temple (125.0)AmerH0-086%12.8
1-3Florida (27.3)SECA0-033%-5.3
1-6South Florida (132.3)AmerA0-070%6.1
1-10Cincinnati (78.5)AmerH0-080%10.2
1-13Tulsa (110.4)AmerA0-065%4.5
1-17Stanford (31.7)P12A0-035%-4.5
1-22UCF (198.0)AmerH0-092%16.9
1-25South Florida (132.3)AmerH0-087%13.3
1-29Cincinnati (78.5)AmerA0-060%3.0
2-1Houston (119.6)AmerA0-064%4.2
2-4East Carolina (231.9)AmerH0-094%19.1
2-7Tulane (252.1)AmerA0-086%12.7
2-12Tulsa (110.4)AmerH0-083%11.7
2-14SMU (30.8)AmerA0-041%-2.7
2-19Memphis (60.5)AmerA0-049%-0.4
2-22Tulane (252.1)AmerH0-095%19.9
2-25East Carolina (231.9)AmerA0-084%11.9
3-1SMU (30.8)AmerH0-065%4.5
3-5Memphis (60.5)AmerH0-071%6.8
3-7Temple (125.0)AmerA0-068%5.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Connecticut's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Connecticut's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Connecticut.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ConnecticutAmer32.1926.3172.2270.8114.3110.95
TempleAmer0.004.2050.0055.220.000.44
TulsaAmer0.004.1666.6754.520.000.38
East CarolinaAmer0.004.160.0035.99-0.00-1.16
South FloridaAmer0.004.1466.6754.170.000.35
MemphisAmer0.004.140.0068.86-0.001.56
CincinnatiAmer0.004.14100.0060.780.000.89
SMUAmer0.004.1350.0070.860.001.72
TulaneAmer0.004.1350.0037.280.00-1.05
HoustonAmer0.002.59100.0066.020.000.83
UCFAmer0.002.58100.0048.470.00-0.08
Central ConnecticutNEC0.001.790.0031.24-0.00-0.67
YaleIvy0.001.7975.0071.150.000.76
BryantNEC12.501.75100.0056.6012.500.23
DukeACC0.001.75100.0085.440.001.24
TexasB120.001.75100.0082.290.001.13
West VirginiaB1212.501.75100.0070.9512.500.73
ColumbiaIvy0.001.7266.6766.330.000.56
StanfordP120.001.7275.0070.340.000.70
FloridaSEC0.001.7066.6768.470.000.63
College of CharlestonCAA12.501.6950.0056.150.000.21
Coppin St.MEAC0.001.670.0028.44-0.00-0.72
DaytonA1012.501.67100.0075.3812.500.85
WagnerNEC0.000.200.0040.53-0.00-0.04
HofstraCAA0.000.2075.0067.090.000.07
St. Francis PANEC0.000.1933.3344.62-0.00-0.02
KansasB120.000.1950.0062.480.000.05
HarvardIvy0.000.1850.0067.640.000.06
BrownIvy0.000.1725.0036.88-0.00-0.05
PennIvy0.000.170.0025.85-0.00-0.08
OklahomaB120.000.1766.6762.380.000.04
BaylorB120.000.16100.0067.490.000.06
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.160.0045.86-0.00-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.16100.0053.290.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.16100.0061.860.000.04
TowsonCAA0.000.1680.0059.220.000.03
DartmouthIvy0.000.150.0034.75-0.00-0.05
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1420.0034.58-0.00-0.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.140.0035.17-0.00-0.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.1450.0039.620.00-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.140.0056.76-0.000.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.1425.0043.02-0.00-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.1433.3331.17-0.00-0.05
Wake ForestACC0.000.1450.0042.650.00-0.02
DelawareCAA0.000.140.0020.55-0.00-0.08
CornellIvy0.000.1233.3337.81-0.00-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.000.1225.0041.22-0.00-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.000.1233.3365.28-0.000.04
Oral RobertsSum0.000.1233.3348.17-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.12100.0084.310.000.08
James MadisonCAA0.000.1266.6746.160.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.12100.0071.350.000.05
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1266.6746.380.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.12100.0088.080.000.09
GonzagaWCC0.000.11100.0086.980.000.09
ArkansasSEC0.000.11100.0073.710.000.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1133.3344.23-0.00-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1125.0040.26-0.00-0.02
WashingtonP120.000.11100.0056.730.000.02
Texas A&MSEC2.810.1175.0069.221.410.04
LSUSEC0.000.1175.0058.200.000.02
MonmouthMAAC1.250.1150.0054.510.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1125.0043.58-0.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.1133.3338.76-0.00-0.03
La SalleA100.000.11100.0054.720.000.01
Iowa St.B120.000.11100.0062.120.000.03
Kansas St.B120.000.1166.6750.120.000.00
TCUB120.000.11100.0054.380.000.01
Texas TechB120.000.1166.6746.580.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.090.0019.35-0.00-0.06
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.090.0035.81-0.00-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.090.0028.04-0.00-0.04
AuburnSEC0.000.0966.6740.980.00-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.090.0040.51-0.00-0.02
MichiganB100.000.09100.0064.520.000.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0950.0042.910.00-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0966.6753.080.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0925.0038.29-0.00-0.02
DenverSum0.000.0966.6763.860.000.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.09100.0046.960.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.090.0019.05-0.00-0.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.090.0037.29-0.00-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.09100.0050.370.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.090.0033.67-0.00-0.03
DetroitHorz0.000.0933.3353.24-0.000.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.090.0046.28-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.090.0069.20-0.000.03
MississippiSEC0.000.0975.0054.940.000.01
AmericanPat0.000.0860.0057.690.000.01
DavidsonA100.000.0850.0053.570.000.01
St. John'sBE0.000.08100.0051.580.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.08100.0059.020.000.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.080.0026.20-0.00-0.04
Notre DameACC0.000.0880.0073.060.000.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.08100.0060.050.000.02
VCUA100.000.08100.0074.410.000.04
Miami FLACC0.000.08100.0079.170.000.05
William & MaryCAA0.000.0866.6746.700.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0875.0069.780.000.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0850.0038.210.00-0.02
UNLVMWC0.000.0875.0051.200.000.00
Boston CollegeACC2.810.0840.0038.78-0.56-0.02
George MasonA102.500.0820.0021.84-1.50-0.05
WoffordSC0.000.0880.0077.570.000.04
ElonCAA0.000.0833.3341.23-0.00-0.01
Green BayHorz0.000.060.0067.33-0.000.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0633.3347.36-0.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.060.0029.00-0.00-0.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0666.6749.380.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0063.150.000.02
HowardMEAC0.000.060.0038.12-0.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.06100.0051.850.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.060.0048.44-0.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0650.0052.770.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0633.3346.72-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.000.0675.0070.240.000.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0052.940.000.00
OregonP120.000.06100.0069.430.000.02
BradleyMVC0.000.0633.3323.14-0.00-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0666.6767.580.000.02
IndianaB100.000.06100.0062.410.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.060.0032.23-0.00-0.02
LamarSlnd0.000.060.0033.64-0.00-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.060.0037.72-0.00-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.060.0039.35-0.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0038.43-0.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.060.0066.50-0.000.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0650.0039.080.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.060.0056.35-0.000.01
VermontAE0.000.0633.3358.75-0.000.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0633.3334.41-0.00-0.02
WyomingMWC0.000.06100.0070.560.000.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0620.0028.39-0.00-0.02
ArmyPat0.000.06100.0066.600.000.02
HartfordAE0.000.0675.0040.710.00-0.01
LafayettePat1.250.0675.0065.250.620.02
NJITind0.000.0625.0025.81-0.00-0.03
PittsburghACC0.000.0666.6751.770.000.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0633.3328.24-0.00-0.02
ArizonaP120.000.06100.0070.780.000.02
Arizona St.P120.000.06100.0056.760.000.01
DuquesneA100.000.06100.0053.680.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.060.0037.26-0.00-0.01
FordhamA100.000.060.0023.10-0.00-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0650.0046.140.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0620.0053.22-0.000.00
NebraskaB100.000.0666.6753.760.000.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0666.6757.190.000.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.06100.0081.220.000.03
Seton HallBE0.000.06100.0063.690.000.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.0666.6753.120.000.00
UABCUSA0.000.0633.3343.07-0.00-0.01
UCLAP120.000.06100.0065.190.000.02
USCP120.000.0640.0028.63-0.00-0.02
Washington St.P120.000.0633.3327.62-0.00-0.02
XavierBE0.000.06100.0075.510.000.03
Georgia TechACC0.000.05100.0052.480.000.00
DrexelCAA0.000.0520.0036.50-0.00-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0540.0032.83-0.00-0.02
FurmanSC1.250.0533.3324.24-0.42-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0580.0071.590.000.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.05100.0075.190.000.03
SyracuseACC0.000.0575.0068.410.000.02
VillanovaBE0.000.05100.0062.920.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0566.6732.890.00-0.02
BucknellPat0.000.0325.0036.00-0.00-0.01
ColgatePat0.000.0333.3341.47-0.00-0.01
LehighPat0.000.030.0032.42-0.00-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0350.0032.360.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.03100.0064.500.000.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.03100.0062.400.000.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0325.0052.16-0.000.00
IllinoisB100.000.03100.0065.770.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0320.0028.32-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0021.84-0.00-0.02
StetsonASun0.000.030.0031.77-0.00-0.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0333.3363.61-0.000.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0375.0063.000.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.03100.0062.770.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0375.0056.300.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0024.68-0.00-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0375.0067.590.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0350.0063.440.000.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0366.6746.610.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.0350.0070.910.000.01
New HampshireAE3.120.030.0041.80-3.12-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.03100.0071.680.000.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0366.6765.840.000.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0340.0049.19-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0340.0050.84-0.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0042.760.00-0.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.03100.0031.430.00-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC1.560.030.0041.94-1.56-0.00
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0333.3361.17-0.000.01
BYUWCC0.000.03100.0067.070.000.01
ColoradoP120.000.0366.6760.880.000.01
DePaulBE0.000.03100.0036.140.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0366.6776.480.000.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0333.3326.52-0.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0380.0061.870.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0366.6732.670.00-0.01
Oregon St.P120.000.03100.0048.750.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.03100.0058.810.000.00
RichmondA100.000.0366.6765.070.000.01
South DakotaSum0.000.030.0036.09-0.00-0.01
UtahP120.000.0366.6769.560.000.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0032.38-0.00-0.01
CampbellBSth0.000.030.0031.49-0.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0375.0065.560.000.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0350.0050.440.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth1.250.0350.0063.170.000.01
IowaB100.000.0350.0065.830.000.01
LipscombASun0.000.030.0043.50-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0325.0050.35-0.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0078.240.000.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0366.6752.830.000.00
MarylandB100.000.03100.0060.180.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0366.6771.100.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0350.0045.000.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0333.3340.10-0.00-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.030.0021.88-0.00-0.02
RiderMAAC0.000.0366.6751.350.000.00
Texas St.SB0.000.0366.6748.940.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.000.030.0027.66-0.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0333.3362.70-0.000.01
UMBCAE0.000.030.0038.34-0.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0375.0056.830.000.00
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0075.160.000.01
VMISC0.000.0333.3338.04-0.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.03100.0085.040.000.02