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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Stetson

Conference:ASun
Expected RPI:328.0
Current RPI:328
Expected SOS:314
Current SOS:314
Current Record:8-21
Expected Record:8-21
Current Conf Record:3-12
Expected Conf Record:3-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-12
Current OOC Record:5-9
Expected OOC Record:5-9
Expected OOC RPI:309
Expected OOC SOS:342



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-21328.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Stetson.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14FIU (338.0)CUSAH82-67W100%0.0
11-18The Citadel (282.0)SCH112-116L0%0.0
11-20East Carolina (213.0)AmerA73-50L0%0.0
11-22Air Force (250.0)MWCA85-72L0%0.0
11-25Radford (227.0)BSthN66-80L0%0.0
11-26Florida A&M (349.0)MEACN90-98W100%0.0
11-30UCF (68.0)AmerA81-45L0%0.0
12-5Iowa (81.0)B10A95-68L0%0.0
12-7SIU Edwardsville (333.0)OVCA72-80W100%0.0
12-10South Alabama (231.0)SBH87-78W100%0.0
12-18Fort Wayne (178.0)SumH74-93L0%0.0
12-22Campbell (246.0)BSthA81-72L0%0.0
12-29Alabama (78.0)SECA83-60L0%0.0
1-7Florida Gulf Coast (85.0)ASunH88-89L0%0.0
1-12Lipscomb (189.0)ASunA94-68L0%0.0
1-14Kennesaw St. (259.0)ASunA84-65L0%0.0
1-19NJIT (290.0)ASunH82-76W100%0.0
1-21USC Upstate (229.0)ASunH86-97L0%0.0
1-25Jacksonville (291.0)ASunA103-92L0%0.0
1-28North Florida (217.0)ASunH88-74W100%0.0
1-30Jacksonville (291.0)ASunH86-89L0%0.0
2-1Bethune Cookman (346.0)MEACA67-76W100%0.0
2-4North Florida (217.0)ASunA96-64L0%0.0
2-9Kennesaw St. (259.0)ASunH85-92L0%0.0
2-11Lipscomb (189.0)ASunH85-97L0%0.0
2-16USC Upstate (229.0)ASunA72-83W100%0.0
2-18NJIT (290.0)ASunA60-56L0%0.0
2-23Florida Gulf Coast (85.0)ASunA80-70L0%0.0
2-27Florida Gulf Coast (85.0)ASunA87-57L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Stetson's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Stetson's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Stetson.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
StetsonASun26.3726.3729.0129.01-11.07-11.07
Florida Gulf CoastASun6.036.0374.0774.072.902.90
North FloridaASun4.454.4535.7135.71-1.27-1.27
Kennesaw St.ASun4.454.4535.7135.71-1.27-1.27
JacksonvilleASun4.414.4142.3142.31-0.68-0.68
USC UpstateASun4.354.3546.1546.15-0.33-0.33
LipscombASun4.334.3353.5753.570.310.31
NJITASun4.274.2729.6329.63-1.74-1.74
FIUCUSA1.961.9617.8617.86-1.26-1.26
Florida A&MMEAC1.951.9518.5218.52-1.23-1.23
Bethune CookmanMEAC1.931.9327.5927.59-0.87-0.87
CampbellBSth1.901.9043.3343.33-0.25-0.25
Air ForceMWC1.841.8430.0030.00-0.74-0.74
East CarolinaAmer1.841.8443.7543.75-0.23-0.23
South AlabamaSB1.821.8241.3841.38-0.31-0.31
The CitadelSC1.811.8127.5927.59-0.81-0.81
RadfordBSth1.811.8137.9337.93-0.44-0.44
UCFAmer1.811.8164.5264.520.520.52
AlabamaSEC1.791.7956.2556.250.220.22
IowaB101.781.7854.8454.840.170.17
Fort WayneSum1.721.7255.5655.560.190.19
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC1.721.7218.5218.52-1.09-1.09
Georgia SouthernSB0.320.3253.3353.330.020.02
PresbyterianBSth0.260.2610.7110.71-0.20-0.20
South FloridaAmer0.220.2223.3323.33-0.12-0.12
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.200.203.333.33-0.19-0.19
UNC AshevilleBSth0.200.2070.0070.000.080.08
Charleston SouthernBSth0.200.2032.1432.14-0.07-0.07
TempleAmer0.190.1950.0050.000.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.180.1832.1432.14-0.06-0.06
DenverSum0.180.1853.3353.330.010.01
ColgatePat0.180.1829.0329.03-0.07-0.07
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.180.1828.5728.57-0.08-0.08
SamfordSC0.170.1753.1253.120.010.01
AuburnSEC0.170.1756.2556.250.020.02
FloridaSEC0.170.1775.0075.000.080.08
MercerSC0.170.1743.3343.33-0.02-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.160.1646.8846.88-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.150.1531.0331.03-0.06-0.06
Delaware St.MEAC0.150.1526.6726.67-0.07-0.07
BelmontOVC0.150.1577.7877.780.080.08
Morehead St.OVC0.150.1542.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.150.1553.5753.570.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.150.1533.3333.33-0.05-0.05
UT ArlingtonSB0.140.1474.1974.190.070.07
College of CharlestonCAA0.140.1472.7372.730.070.07
LibertyBSth0.140.1455.1755.170.010.01
WinthropBSth0.140.1480.0080.000.080.08
CincinnatiAmer0.140.1485.2985.290.100.10
MemphisAmer0.130.1359.3859.380.030.03
SMUAmer0.130.1388.2488.240.100.10
Youngstown St.Horz0.120.1234.3834.38-0.04-0.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.120.1244.8344.83-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.120.1231.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
IndianaB100.120.1254.5554.550.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.120.1237.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Utah St.MWC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.110.1158.6258.620.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.110.1173.5373.530.050.05
Arkansas St.SB0.110.1161.2961.290.030.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.110.1173.3373.330.050.05
VMISC0.110.1114.2914.29-0.08-0.08
PurdueB100.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
Michigan St.B100.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
High PointBSth0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.110.1114.2914.29-0.08-0.08
LSUSEC0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
MissouriSEC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.05-0.05
HoustonAmer0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
TulsaAmer0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0934.4834.48-0.03-0.03
IUPUISum0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.090.0944.4444.44-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
UMass LowellAE0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.090.0987.8887.880.070.07
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.0940.7440.74-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
BaylorB120.090.0977.4277.420.050.05
La SalleA100.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.090.0940.6240.62-0.02-0.02
SienaMAAC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
UMBCAE0.090.0957.1457.140.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
Western CarolinaSC0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
HamptonMEAC0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.080.0868.5768.570.030.03
North DakotaBSky0.080.0867.8667.860.030.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
UNLVMWC0.080.0834.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0884.3884.380.060.06
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
TulaneAmer0.080.0819.3519.35-0.05-0.05
DavidsonA100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0629.4129.41-0.03-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0621.4321.43-0.04-0.04
South DakotaSum0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0623.0823.08-0.03-0.03
BrownIvy0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
IonaMAAC0.060.0664.7164.710.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.060.0661.7661.760.010.01
LafayettePat0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
UABCUSA0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
WisconsinB100.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
Little RockSB0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
PacificWCC0.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
SyracuseACC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
TroySB0.060.0658.8258.820.010.01
WoffordSC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Saint LouisA100.060.0636.3636.36-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
Iowa St.B120.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0637.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
NevadaMWC0.060.0682.3582.350.040.04
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
IllinoisB100.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
MarylandB100.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
NebraskaB100.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
DetroitHorz0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Green BayHorz0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
HawaiiBW0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
MarquetteBE0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
ArmyPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
UC DavisBW0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
PennIvy0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
VillanovaBE0.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
ClemsonACC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
DaytonA100.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
TexasB120.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00