live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Stetson

Conference:ASun
Expected RPI:335.0
Current RPI:335
Expected SOS:315
Current SOS:315
Current Record:6-22
Expected Record:6-22
Current Conf Record:3-12
Expected Conf Record:3-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-12
Current OOC Record:3-10
Expected OOC Record:3-10
Expected OOC RPI:316
Expected OOC SOS:304



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
6-22335.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Stetson.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16UCF (257.0)AmerA64-55L0%0.0
11-18FIU (217.0)CUSAH52-53L0%0.0
11-24New Mexico St. (103.0)WACA88-68L0%0.0
11-26Wyoming (71.0)MWCA65-41L0%0.0
11-28Northern Colorado (245.0)BSkyA82-62L0%0.0
11-29Florida A&M (350.0)MEACN62-50W100%0.0
12-3IPFW (215.0)SumH76-87L0%0.0
12-6Davidson (35.0)A10A90-59L0%0.0
12-16Florida Atlantic (303.0)CUSAA79-69L0%0.0
12-18Georgia Southern (113.0)SBH67-76L0%0.0
12-22Florida St. (110.0)ACCA63-59L0%0.0
1-3Florida A&M (350.0)MEACH65-60W100%0.0
1-10Florida Gulf Coast (137.0)ASunA72-50L0%0.0
1-14Jacksonville (338.0)ASunA71-69L0%0.0
1-17North Florida (162.0)ASunH65-80L0%0.0
1-22Kennesaw St. (319.0)ASunA88-82L0%0.0
1-24USC Upstate (208.0)ASunA91-67L0%0.0
1-29Northern Kentucky (265.0)ASunH85-75W100%0.0
1-31Lipscomb (271.0)ASunH75-73W100%0.0
2-3Bethune Cookman (344.0)MEACA72-77W100%0.0
2-7Florida Gulf Coast (137.0)ASunH51-67L0%0.0
2-12Lipscomb (271.0)ASunA87-85L0%0.0
2-14Northern Kentucky (265.0)ASunA82-57L0%0.0
2-19USC Upstate (208.0)ASunH54-73L0%0.0
2-21Kennesaw St. (319.0)ASunH56-61L0%0.0
2-25Jacksonville (338.0)ASunH70-67W100%0.0
2-28North Florida (162.0)ASunA86-71L0%0.0
3-3North Florida (162.0)ASunA81-67L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Stetson's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Stetson's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Stetson.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
StetsonASun26.4526.4520.3420.34-15.69-15.69
North FloridaASun6.346.3460.7160.711.361.36
USC UpstateASun4.694.6960.7160.711.011.01
JacksonvilleASun4.584.5822.2222.22-2.54-2.54
Florida Gulf CoastASun4.514.5162.9662.961.171.17
LipscombASun4.514.5138.4638.46-1.04-1.04
Kennesaw St.ASun4.454.4521.4321.43-2.54-2.54
Northern KentuckyASun4.424.4238.4638.46-1.02-1.02
Florida A&MMEAC3.963.967.417.41-3.37-3.37
FIUCUSA2.132.1343.3343.33-0.28-0.28
Bethune CookmanMEAC2.092.0931.0331.03-0.79-0.79
UCFAmer2.002.0035.7135.71-0.57-0.57
Florida AtlanticCUSA1.941.9423.0823.08-1.04-1.04
WyomingMWC1.911.9170.9770.970.800.80
New Mexico St.WAC1.911.9166.6766.670.640.64
Northern ColoradoBSky1.901.9044.4444.44-0.21-0.21
Florida St.ACC1.901.9050.0050.000.000.00
IPFWSum1.851.8546.1546.15-0.14-0.14
Georgia SouthernSB1.851.8566.6766.670.620.62
DavidsonA101.821.8275.8675.860.940.94
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.370.3723.3323.33-0.19-0.19
Tennessee TechOVC0.240.2435.7135.71-0.07-0.07
Austin PeayOVC0.210.2121.4321.43-0.12-0.12
ChattanoogaSC0.190.1966.6766.670.060.06
East CarolinaAmer0.190.1938.7138.71-0.04-0.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.180.1875.8675.860.090.09
South FloridaAmer0.180.1825.8125.81-0.09-0.09
ElonCAA0.180.1841.9441.94-0.03-0.03
IdahoBSky0.160.1639.2939.29-0.03-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.150.1529.0329.03-0.06-0.06
Savannah St.MEAC0.150.1524.1424.14-0.08-0.08
HamptonMEAC0.150.1548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.150.1546.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.150.1551.7251.720.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.150.1568.7568.750.060.06
Mississippi St.SEC0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
ClemsonACC0.140.1451.6151.610.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.130.1367.7467.740.050.05
BelmontOVC0.130.1367.7467.740.050.05
North Dakota St.Sum0.130.1370.0070.000.050.05
Appalachian St.SB0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.120.1230.0030.00-0.05-0.05
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.120.1252.9452.940.010.01
UABCUSA0.120.1254.5554.550.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
ColoradoP120.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.120.1210.3410.34-0.10-0.10
Youngstown St.Horz0.120.1227.5927.59-0.06-0.06
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.120.1223.3323.33-0.06-0.06
MemphisAmer0.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
SamfordSC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Montana St.BSky0.120.1220.6920.69-0.07-0.07
PurdueB100.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
MassachusettsA100.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
UMKCWAC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.120.1281.2581.250.070.07
PittsburghACC0.120.1256.2556.250.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
Georgia St.SB0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.100.1058.6258.620.020.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
DenverSum0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
MontanaBSky0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.0957.1457.140.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.090.0934.4834.48-0.03-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
NebraskaB100.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.090.0981.2581.250.060.06
VCUA100.090.0974.2974.290.040.04
MercerSC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
FloridaSEC0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.090.0924.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Wright St.Horz0.090.0931.0331.03-0.03-0.03
CaliforniaP120.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
SyracuseACC0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
LibertyBSth0.090.0914.2914.29-0.06-0.06
Northern IowaMVC0.090.0990.9190.910.070.07
SeattleWAC0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
VirginiaACC0.080.0890.6290.620.070.07
San Diego St.MWC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
Utah St.MWC0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
IUPUISum0.070.0732.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0723.0823.08-0.04-0.04
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
MissouriSEC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.060.0621.4321.43-0.04-0.04
Portland St.BSky0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.060.0662.0762.070.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Texas St.SB0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
TroySB0.060.0629.6329.63-0.03-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
West VirginiaB120.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
WisconsinB100.060.0691.1891.180.050.05
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
North TexasCUSA0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0677.4277.420.030.03
RiceCUSA0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
FurmanSC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Green BayHorz0.060.0673.3373.330.030.03
HofstraCAA0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
HoustonAmer0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.060.0621.8821.88-0.03-0.03
OhioMAC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
TulaneAmer0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.060.0661.7661.760.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0616.6716.67-0.04-0.04
ButlerBE0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
DuquesneA100.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
La SalleA100.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
MarylandB100.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
RichmondA100.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
UMBCAE0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Chicago St.WAC0.060.0617.2417.24-0.04-0.04
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.060.0668.5768.570.020.02
The CitadelSC0.060.0629.6329.63-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
Boise St.MWC0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
San Jose St.MWC0.060.060.000.00-0.06-0.06
UNLVMWC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Miami FLACC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0374.0774.070.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
UC DavisBW0.030.0379.3179.310.020.02
Weber St.BSky0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0358.8258.820.010.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0327.2727.27-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.030.0375.7675.760.020.02
FordhamA100.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
TowsonCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
BaylorB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
HartfordAE0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0359.2659.260.010.01
DukeACC0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01