live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Stetson

Conference:ASun
Expected RPI:303.0
Current RPI:303
Expected SOS:291
Current SOS:291
Current Record:8-22
Expected Record:8-22
Current Conf Record:6-11
Expected Conf Record:6-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-15
Current OOC Record:2-11
Expected OOC Record:2-11
Expected OOC RPI:309
Expected OOC SOS:235



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-22303.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Stetson.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Richmond (121.0)A10A108-85L0%0.0
11-17The Citadel (322.0)SCA94-93L0%0.0
11-20West Virginia (10.0)B12A103-62L0%0.0
11-26Bethune Cookman (288.0)MEACN83-70W100%0.0
11-27East Carolina (217.0)AmerN93-73L0%0.0
11-30FIU (270.0)CUSAA75-81W100%0.0
12-2UCF (219.0)AmerH85-94L0%0.0
12-5Tennessee St. (152.0)OVCA74-54L0%0.0
12-14Tennessee St. (152.0)OVCH90-93L0%0.0
12-19IPFW (71.0)SumA95-89L0%0.0
12-22Georgia Southern (243.0)SBA78-58L0%0.0
1-6North Florida (161.0)ASunH79-97L0%0.0
1-9Florida Gulf Coast (209.0)ASunA82-53L0%0.0
1-14USC Upstate (324.0)ASunH89-86W100%0.0
1-16NJIT (207.0)ASunH59-71L0%0.0
1-21Lipscomb (269.0)ASunA92-87L0%0.0
1-23Kennesaw St. (263.0)ASunA79-84W100%0.0
1-27Marquette (110.0)BEA74-60L0%0.0
1-30Jacksonville (289.0)ASunA75-60L0%0.0
2-1North Florida (161.0)ASunA82-86W100%0.0
2-6Jacksonville (289.0)ASunH88-96L0%0.0
2-11NJIT (207.0)ASunA74-70L0%0.0
2-13USC Upstate (324.0)ASunA85-83L0%0.0
2-18Kennesaw St. (263.0)ASunH82-92L0%0.0
2-20Lipscomb (269.0)ASunH74-77L0%0.0
2-22Bethune Cookman (288.0)MEACH94-96L0%0.0
2-25Florida Gulf Coast (209.0)ASunH80-73W100%0.0
3-1NJIT (207.0)ASunA67-82W100%0.0
3-3Lipscomb (269.0)ASunA75-96W100%0.0
3-6Florida Gulf Coast (209.0)ASunA80-78L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Stetson's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Stetson's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Stetson.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
StetsonASun26.6926.6931.5131.51-9.87-9.87
Florida Gulf CoastASun5.935.9353.8553.850.460.46
LipscombASun5.925.9228.5728.57-2.54-2.54
NJITASun5.805.8051.8551.850.210.21
North FloridaASun4.364.3664.2964.291.251.25
Kennesaw St.ASun4.354.3529.6329.63-1.77-1.77
JacksonvilleASun4.344.3438.4638.46-1.00-1.00
USC UpstateASun4.324.3223.0823.08-2.33-2.33
Bethune CookmanMEAC3.503.5039.2939.29-0.75-0.75
Tennessee St.OVC3.473.4761.5461.540.800.80
The CitadelSC1.811.8121.4321.43-1.03-1.03
FIUCUSA1.811.8137.9337.93-0.44-0.44
West VirginiaB121.811.8175.7675.760.930.93
East CarolinaAmer1.781.7835.4835.48-0.52-0.52
UCFAmer1.771.7737.9337.93-0.43-0.43
Georgia SouthernSB1.751.7539.2939.29-0.38-0.38
RichmondA101.751.7548.3948.39-0.06-0.06
IPFWSum1.731.7370.0070.000.690.69
MarquetteBE1.671.6759.3859.380.310.31
BelmontOVC0.360.3663.3363.330.100.10
Florida A&MMEAC0.310.3122.2222.22-0.17-0.17
Austin PeayOVC0.310.3148.4848.48-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.280.2824.2424.24-0.14-0.14
NavyPat0.210.2156.2556.250.030.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.200.2060.7160.710.040.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.200.2032.2632.26-0.07-0.07
South Carolina St.MEAC0.200.2054.8454.840.020.02
FloridaSEC0.200.2057.5857.580.030.03
ChattanoogaSC0.200.2084.3884.380.130.13
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.190.1922.5822.58-0.10-0.10
Jacksonville St.OVC0.180.1820.6920.69-0.10-0.10
UNC GreensboroSC0.170.1737.9337.93-0.04-0.04
South DakotaSum0.170.1740.0040.00-0.03-0.03
St. John'sBE0.160.1622.5822.58-0.09-0.09
OhioMAC0.150.1564.5264.520.040.04
Texas A&MSEC0.150.1576.4776.470.080.08
MercerSC0.140.1454.8454.840.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.140.1454.8454.840.010.01
MassachusettsA100.140.1443.7543.75-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.140.1477.4277.420.080.08
Savannah St.MEAC0.140.1448.2848.28-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.140.1428.5728.57-0.06-0.06
St. Francis NYNEC0.140.1445.1645.16-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.140.1457.5857.580.020.02
IUPUISum0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
AkronMAC0.140.1475.7675.760.070.07
TulaneAmer0.140.1435.2935.29-0.04-0.04
Miami OHMAC0.140.1437.5037.50-0.03-0.03
DenverSum0.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.130.1369.7069.700.050.05
Morehead St.OVC0.120.1258.6258.620.020.02
Appalachian St.SB0.120.1229.0329.03-0.05-0.05
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.120.1270.9770.970.050.05
UABCUSA0.120.1280.6580.650.070.07
SamfordSC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.110.1170.0070.000.050.05
LouisvilleACC0.110.1174.1974.190.050.05
La SalleA100.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.110.1134.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.110.1114.2914.29-0.08-0.08
DaytonA100.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
MemphisAmer0.110.1155.8855.880.010.01
TempleAmer0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
TulsaAmer0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
VCUA100.110.1170.5970.590.040.04
James MadisonCAA0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
WinthropBSth0.090.0968.9768.970.030.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0921.4321.43-0.05-0.05
Western MichiganMAC0.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.090.0930.0030.00-0.03-0.03
ElonCAA0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.080.0878.1278.120.050.05
Arkansas Little RockSB0.080.0887.1087.100.060.06
AlbanyAE0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Boston UniversityPat0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.080.0865.5265.520.030.03
Kent St.MAC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
KentuckySEC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
LafayettePat0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
St. Francis PANEC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.080.0880.0080.000.050.05
UMass LowellAE0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
UMBCAE0.080.0821.8821.88-0.05-0.05
UTEPCUSA0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
YaleIvy0.080.0877.7877.780.050.05
Arizona St.P120.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
HoustonAmer0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
Saint LouisA100.080.0834.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.080.0877.7877.780.040.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
DavidsonA100.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
George WashingtonA100.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
SMUAmer0.080.0883.3383.330.050.05
ButlerBE0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
FordhamA100.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
XavierBE0.080.0884.3884.380.050.05
Texas TechB120.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
KansasB120.070.0787.8887.880.060.06
OklahomaB120.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
TCUB120.070.0736.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0611.1111.11-0.05-0.05
TennesseeSEC0.060.0644.1244.12-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
FurmanSC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Texas St.SB0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
VMISC0.060.0622.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
BrownIvy0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0616.6716.67-0.04-0.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0679.3179.310.030.03
HamptonMEAC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
HartfordAE0.060.0628.1228.12-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.060.0644.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
ToledoMAC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.060.0618.5218.52-0.03-0.03
UTSACUSA0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0562.8662.860.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0529.1729.17-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
CaliforniaP120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
George MasonA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
CreightonBE0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
DePaulBE0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
VillanovaBE0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
BaylorB120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Iowa St.B120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Kansas St.B120.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
DuquesneA100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.030.033.453.45-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
MaineAE0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00