live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Stetson

Conference:ASun
Expected RPI:322.2
Current RPI:321
Expected SOS:317
Current SOS:312
Current Record:2-5
Expected Record:8-20
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:4-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-11
Current OOC Record:2-5
Expected OOC Record:4-10
Expected OOC RPI:322
Expected OOC SOS:317



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-13202.30.03%
14-14234.80.19%
13-15254.70.77%
12-16268.92.29%
11-17287.95.90%
10-18302.010.61%
9-19314.816.75%
8-20325.420.44%
7-21333.118.52%
6-22339.013.92%
5-23343.17.29%
4-24346.12.54%
3-25348.30.68%
2-26348.50.06%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Stetson.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14FIU (267.5)CUSAH82-67W100%0.0
11-18The Citadel (312.2)SCH112-116L0%0.0
11-20East Carolina (187.7)AmerA73-50L0%0.0
11-22Air Force (197.4)MWCA85-72L0%0.0
11-25Radford (250.4)BSthN66-80L0%0.0
11-26Florida A&M (346.2)MEACN90-98W100%0.0
11-30UCF (51.0)AmerA81-45L0%0.0
12-5Iowa (164.3)B10A0-04%-20.5
12-7SIU Edwardsville (228.3)OVCA0-025%-8.1
12-10South Alabama (126.4)SBH0-021%-9.8
12-18Fort Wayne (119.2)SumH0-014%-13.2
12-22Campbell (309.0)BSthA0-039%-3.3
12-29Alabama (102.9)SECA0-03%-23.3
1-7Florida Gulf Coast (93.4)ASunH0-013%-13.7
1-12Lipscomb (296.4)ASunA0-027%-7.4
1-14Kennesaw St. (308.6)ASunA0-035%-4.5
1-19NJIT (192.6)ASunH0-031%-6.0
1-21USC Upstate (277.8)ASunH0-052%0.6
1-25Jacksonville (208.9)ASunA0-016%-11.8
1-28North Florida (270.2)ASunH0-047%-0.9
1-30Jacksonville (208.9)ASunH0-032%-5.6
2-1Bethune Cookman (340.9)MEACA0-051%0.3
2-4North Florida (270.2)ASunA0-028%-7.0
2-9Kennesaw St. (308.6)ASunH0-056%1.7
2-11Lipscomb (296.4)ASunH0-046%-1.2
2-16USC Upstate (277.8)ASunA0-032%-5.6
2-18NJIT (192.6)ASunA0-016%-12.1
2-23Florida Gulf Coast (93.4)ASunA0-05%-19.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Stetson's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Stetson's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Stetson.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
StetsonASun29.1426.3527.5929.16-13.06-10.98
JacksonvilleASun1.194.5157.1458.170.170.74
Kennesaw St.ASun0.604.4528.5728.42-0.26-1.92
USC UpstateASun0.004.4533.3336.61-0.00-1.19
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.004.3850.0069.740.001.73
North FloridaASun0.004.3814.2929.24-0.00-1.82
LipscombASun0.004.3614.2930.72-0.00-1.68
NJITASun0.004.3642.8648.28-0.00-0.15
Florida A&MMEAC8.182.040.0024.36-8.18-1.05
FIUCUSA7.142.0120.0034.89-4.29-0.61
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.002.0116.6731.28-0.00-0.75
CampbellBSth0.001.9525.0032.49-0.00-0.68
Air ForceMWC8.181.9140.0040.66-1.64-0.36
East CarolinaAmer8.331.9171.4345.763.57-0.16
The CitadelSC7.141.8825.0024.35-3.57-0.97
South AlabamaSB0.601.8883.3360.490.400.40
UCFAmer7.141.8880.0073.744.290.89
AlabamaSEC0.001.8566.6754.590.000.17
RadfordBSth7.141.8520.0033.95-4.29-0.59
IowaB100.001.8542.8642.62-0.00-0.27
Fort WayneSum0.001.7966.6770.340.000.73
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.001.7957.1439.310.00-0.38
Georgia SouthernSB1.190.2950.0045.410.00-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.710.2633.3327.13-0.24-0.12
South FloridaAmer0.600.2566.6732.240.20-0.09
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.2325.0038.72-0.00-0.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.450.220.0024.32-0.45-0.11
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.2050.0064.840.000.06
ColgatePat0.000.1920.0041.31-0.00-0.03
DenverSum0.000.1933.3341.11-0.00-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.000.1940.0041.65-0.00-0.03
SamfordSC0.000.1957.1455.810.000.02
AuburnSEC0.000.1983.3355.200.000.02
MercerSC1.040.1950.0053.050.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.1833.3338.76-0.00-0.04
TempleAmer0.000.1871.4363.570.000.05
FloridaSEC0.000.1687.5075.320.000.08
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.1620.0034.39-0.00-0.05
BelmontOVC0.000.1640.0061.37-0.000.04
Morehead St.OVC0.000.1620.0041.93-0.00-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.1683.3370.360.000.06
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1614.2928.66-0.00-0.07
College of CharlestonCAA1.310.1662.5056.500.330.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.1585.7180.960.000.09
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.1316.6737.09-0.00-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.130.0027.77-0.00-0.06
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.1320.0048.38-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.000.1350.0051.260.000.00
LibertyBSth0.000.1340.0050.71-0.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.1325.0024.66-0.00-0.07
WinthropBSth0.000.1360.0070.500.000.05
ArkansasSEC0.000.1383.3362.840.000.03
VMISC0.600.130.0021.15-0.60-0.07
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.1357.1464.940.000.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.600.1342.8637.60-0.09-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.000.1366.6769.810.000.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1316.6736.35-0.00-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.130.0034.23-0.00-0.04
CharlotteCUSA0.450.1366.6751.090.150.00
LSUSEC0.000.1371.4349.770.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.1360.0067.410.000.04
Utah St.MWC0.000.1350.0053.560.000.01
MissouriSEC0.000.1250.0045.920.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.1285.7168.390.000.05
PurdueB100.000.1271.4374.450.000.06
HoustonAmer0.000.1283.3376.370.000.06
MemphisAmer0.000.1285.7159.740.000.02
TulsaAmer0.000.1260.0039.200.00-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.1042.8646.78-0.00-0.01
HowardMEAC0.000.100.0038.26-0.00-0.02
IUPUISum0.000.1028.5747.72-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1057.1447.320.00-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.600.1042.8640.94-0.09-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.1040.0067.95-0.000.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.100.0018.22-0.00-0.06
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.100.0038.35-0.00-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.000.1025.0040.81-0.00-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.1050.0052.330.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1075.0054.320.000.01
UMBCAE0.000.1080.0055.340.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0950.0061.590.000.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0933.3348.73-0.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.0933.3353.29-0.000.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0925.0024.28-0.00-0.05
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0950.0043.490.00-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.450.090.0034.18-0.45-0.03
IndianaB100.000.0983.3375.060.000.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0966.6775.370.000.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.090.0024.19-0.00-0.05
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0983.3377.170.000.05
MassachusettsA100.000.0983.3358.080.000.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.0925.0034.47-0.00-0.03
Texas St.SB0.000.0950.0043.310.00-0.01
MichiganB100.000.0971.4366.530.000.03
MinnesotaB100.000.0985.7165.670.000.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0985.7173.010.000.04
UNLVMWC0.000.0971.4349.590.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.600.0971.4343.020.26-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0957.1469.300.000.03
TulaneAmer0.000.0914.2926.81-0.00-0.04
BaylorB120.000.07100.0074.460.000.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0750.0059.670.000.01
DavidsonA100.000.0783.3368.880.000.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.0750.0047.560.00-0.00
La SalleA100.000.0760.0051.780.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.070.0039.35-0.00-0.01
MaristMAAC0.000.0742.8635.68-0.00-0.02
Miami FLACC0.000.0771.4365.740.000.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0733.3333.15-0.00-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0750.0061.810.000.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.070.0019.30-0.00-0.04
SienaMAAC0.000.0728.5750.51-0.000.00
South DakotaSum0.000.0757.1447.220.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0714.2937.52-0.00-0.02
SyracuseACC0.000.0766.6770.140.000.03
UMKCWAC0.000.0771.4356.050.000.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.070.0022.69-0.00-0.04
Wright St.Horz0.000.0771.4355.750.000.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0614.2934.56-0.00-0.02
BrownIvy0.000.0650.0042.420.00-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0683.3380.700.000.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0620.0034.22-0.00-0.02
FordhamA100.000.0657.1443.680.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.000.0620.0049.38-0.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0614.2929.81-0.00-0.03
IonaMAAC0.000.0660.0070.140.000.03
Kent St.MAC0.000.0650.0051.820.000.00
LafayettePat0.000.0633.3331.87-0.00-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.0642.8661.90-0.000.02
PacificWCC0.000.0650.0049.010.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.000.0650.0047.990.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0660.0052.760.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0650.0038.430.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0640.0043.86-0.00-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0616.6733.82-0.00-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0666.6758.420.000.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0616.6718.96-0.00-0.04
WoffordSC0.000.060.0033.58-0.00-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.0650.0033.010.00-0.02
AkronMAC1.190.0683.3369.840.790.02
ElonCAA0.600.0683.3358.030.400.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.600.0671.4368.100.260.02
Notre DameACC0.000.06100.0075.010.000.03
WisconsinB100.000.0675.0073.840.000.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.600.0642.8637.25-0.09-0.02
Saint LouisA100.000.0633.3326.75-0.00-0.03
Boise St.MWC0.000.0650.0058.980.000.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0660.0039.610.00-0.01
Little RockSB0.000.0660.0057.900.000.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0675.0070.470.000.03
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0675.0074.990.000.03
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0640.0037.44-0.00-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0633.3323.33-0.00-0.03
TroySB0.000.0633.3332.23-0.00-0.02
UABCUSA0.000.0657.1461.940.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0625.0043.26-0.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0628.5728.46-0.00-0.03
WyomingMWC0.000.0660.0048.590.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.710.0671.4368.970.310.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0628.5739.44-0.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0671.4346.010.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.06100.0080.780.000.04
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0666.6754.380.000.01
IllinoisB100.000.0657.1442.660.00-0.01
MarylandB100.000.0685.7156.490.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0650.0043.610.00-0.01
RutgersB100.000.0683.3344.770.00-0.01
VirginiaACC0.000.06100.0082.550.000.04
DetroitHorz0.000.030.0019.51-0.00-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0350.0066.170.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0024.77-0.00-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0383.3356.560.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0350.0056.430.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.0325.0056.92-0.000.00
Arizona St.P120.710.0357.1436.050.10-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0316.6730.27-0.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0350.0056.260.000.00
Green BayHorz0.000.0333.3348.71-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0350.0050.940.000.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0371.4363.090.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0385.7180.010.000.02
San DiegoWCC0.000.0328.5727.50-0.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0350.0046.670.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.000.0328.5733.92-0.00-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0385.7162.920.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.600.0371.4352.370.260.00
West VirginiaB120.000.0383.3380.550.000.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0320.0036.00-0.00-0.01
ArmyPat0.000.0333.3345.58-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.000.0371.4359.850.000.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0383.3361.490.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0366.6761.340.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0320.0032.60-0.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0383.3359.600.000.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0375.0064.960.000.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0371.4358.670.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0340.0030.80-0.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0342.8645.30-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0366.6765.810.000.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0385.7169.010.000.01
UC DavisBW0.000.0357.1448.410.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0342.8634.17-0.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0366.6753.460.000.00
DaytonA100.000.0366.6772.440.000.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0357.1444.160.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0086.250.000.02
OregonP120.000.0371.4366.730.000.01
PennIvy0.000.0340.0057.97-0.000.00
SeattleWAC0.600.0320.0042.63-0.36-0.00
TexasB120.000.0350.0036.240.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0366.6766.100.000.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0385.7174.430.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0357.1448.860.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.600.03100.0083.120.600.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.450.0328.5734.18-0.19-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0340.0057.49-0.000.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0371.4366.220.000.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0385.7172.660.000.01
Penn St.B100.000.0362.5043.960.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.000.0371.4354.520.000.00