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Through games of Jan 31, 2015.


Stetson

Conference:ASun
Expected RPI:332.4
Current RPI:341
Expected SOS:318
Current SOS:323
Current Record:4-15
Expected Record:7-20
Current Conf Record:2-5
Expected Conf Record:4-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-10
Current OOC Record:2-10
Expected OOC Record:2-11
Expected OOC RPI:333
Expected OOC SOS:308



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-16277.80.05%
10-17299.20.67%
9-18311.45.13%
8-19322.117.31%
7-20331.032.44%
6-21338.729.90%
5-22343.512.52%
4-23346.31.97%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Stetson.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16UCF (233.2)AmerA64-55L0%0.0
11-18FIU (197.9)CUSAH52-53L0%0.0
11-24New Mexico St. (127.7)WACA88-68L0%0.0
11-26Wyoming (84.4)MWCA65-41L0%0.0
11-28Northern Colorado (211.9)BSkyA82-62L0%0.0
11-29Florida A&M (350.6)MEACN62-50W100%0.0
12-3IPFW (237.3)SumH76-87L0%0.0
12-6Davidson (42.1)A10A90-59L0%0.0
12-16Florida Atlantic (237.4)CUSAA79-69L0%0.0
12-18Georgia Southern (102.1)SBH67-76L0%0.0
12-22Florida St. (155.9)ACCA63-59L0%0.0
1-3Florida A&M (350.6)MEACH65-60W100%0.0
1-10Florida Gulf Coast (125.4)ASunA72-50L0%0.0
1-14Jacksonville (344.8)ASunA71-69L0%0.0
1-17North Florida (184.0)ASunH65-80L0%0.0
1-22Kennesaw St. (320.5)ASunA88-82L0%0.0
1-24USC Upstate (202.9)ASunA91-67L0%0.0
1-29Northern Kentucky (246.8)ASunH85-75W100%0.0
1-31Lipscomb (278.8)ASunH75-73W100%0.0
2-3Bethune Cookman (336.7)MEACA0-037%-3.7
2-7Florida Gulf Coast (125.4)ASunH0-017%-10.3
2-12Lipscomb (278.8)ASunA0-022%-8.3
2-14Northern Kentucky (246.8)ASunA0-019%-9.5
2-19USC Upstate (202.9)ASunH0-021%-8.8
2-21Kennesaw St. (320.5)ASunH0-067%4.9
2-25Jacksonville (344.8)ASunH0-076%7.7
2-28North Florida (184.0)ASunA0-07%-16.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Stetson's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Stetson's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Stetson.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
StetsonASun26.4126.4418.6722.87-16.55-14.35
JacksonvilleASun3.304.6815.0015.42-2.31-3.24
North FloridaASun3.214.6450.0054.770.000.44
USC UpstateASun3.284.6463.1664.560.861.35
Kennesaw St.ASun3.104.5623.8124.55-1.62-2.32
Florida Gulf CoastASun3.094.5563.1666.140.811.47
Northern KentuckyASun3.024.5136.8439.90-0.79-0.91
LipscombASun3.014.5138.8939.46-0.67-0.95
Florida A&MMEAC5.734.100.003.79-5.73-3.79
FIUCUSA3.112.1941.1843.10-0.55-0.30
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.322.1425.0030.65-0.16-0.83
UCFAmer3.002.0936.8437.08-0.79-0.54
Florida AtlanticCUSA2.831.9833.3338.70-0.94-0.45
New Mexico St.WAC2.901.9850.0060.420.000.41
WyomingMWC2.891.9878.9572.801.670.90
Northern ColoradoBSky2.891.9847.0652.26-0.170.09
Florida St.ACC2.761.9550.0043.830.00-0.24
Georgia SouthernSB2.771.9273.3371.711.290.83
IPFWSum2.691.9238.8942.10-0.60-0.30
DavidsonA102.701.8870.5972.501.110.85
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.200.4019.0525.57-0.12-0.19
Austin PeayOVC0.200.2125.0024.39-0.10-0.11
ChattanoogaSC0.190.2061.9060.960.050.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.190.2038.1040.95-0.05-0.04
South FloridaAmer0.210.2028.5731.94-0.09-0.07
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.1968.4275.790.000.10
IdahoBSky0.200.1735.2943.62-0.06-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.210.1733.3331.17-0.07-0.06
ElonCAA0.200.1742.8641.77-0.03-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.190.1645.0037.75-0.02-0.04
HamptonMEAC0.190.1638.1038.64-0.05-0.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.210.1631.8234.59-0.08-0.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.190.1647.6248.94-0.01-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.1615.7923.17-0.00-0.09
BelmontOVC0.140.1466.6764.950.050.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.140.1468.1870.090.050.06
ColoradoP120.210.1452.3850.450.010.00
Appalachian St.SB0.140.1442.1138.99-0.02-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.160.1420.0024.85-0.09-0.07
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.160.1452.3853.270.010.01
UABCUSA0.160.1447.6251.78-0.010.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.160.1468.4266.670.060.05
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.130.1442.1149.83-0.02-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.130.1463.1661.830.030.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.130.1414.2914.78-0.09-0.10
MemphisAmer0.130.1361.9061.480.030.03
NorthwesternB100.130.1347.6242.03-0.01-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.140.1347.6245.06-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.130.1366.6769.240.040.05
Montana St.BSky0.200.1315.0017.85-0.14-0.09
UMKCWAC0.130.1333.3338.47-0.04-0.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.130.1333.3333.58-0.04-0.04
MassachusettsA100.200.1357.1455.890.030.02
Colorado St.MWC0.200.1385.7182.060.140.08
SamfordSC0.120.1339.1337.63-0.03-0.03
PittsburghACC0.130.1361.9055.030.030.01
New MexicoMWC0.190.1366.6763.050.060.03
ClemsonACC0.190.1261.9054.070.040.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.140.1135.0037.17-0.04-0.03
DenverSum0.140.1040.9144.93-0.02-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.130.1050.0051.680.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.140.1072.2273.710.060.05
CharlotteCUSA0.230.1042.8649.26-0.03-0.00
PurdueB100.130.1063.6460.040.040.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.140.1031.5831.34-0.05-0.04
MontanaBSky0.150.1050.0054.040.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.140.1045.0046.64-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.1057.8960.230.010.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.140.1031.8229.88-0.05-0.04
IllinoisB100.140.1063.6460.730.040.02
NebraskaB100.130.1057.1448.260.02-0.00
SMUAmer0.200.1080.9577.890.120.05
FloridaSEC0.130.1057.1456.520.020.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.130.1060.8757.630.030.01
CaliforniaP120.130.1057.1447.870.02-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.130.1010.0019.57-0.10-0.06
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1042.1147.26-0.00-0.01
HowardMEAC0.130.1044.4446.08-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.130.1056.5257.100.020.01
MercerSC0.060.1047.6252.00-0.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.130.1019.0526.06-0.08-0.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.130.1059.0962.580.020.02
SyracuseACC0.120.0966.6758.780.040.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.080.0735.0037.26-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0740.0039.46-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.0766.6769.040.000.03
IUPUISum0.070.0736.3638.81-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0747.3754.12-0.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0755.5654.050.010.01
MissouriSEC0.070.0730.0028.64-0.03-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.070.0744.4443.51-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.080.0725.0028.45-0.04-0.03
South DakotaSum0.140.0740.9142.86-0.03-0.01
TexasB120.070.0766.6764.990.020.02
Texas St.SB0.160.0741.1843.77-0.03-0.01
TroySB0.080.0733.3333.42-0.03-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0755.0054.480.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0750.0051.140.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0735.2930.55-0.02-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0776.1974.490.000.03
North TexasCUSA0.000.0738.8934.91-0.00-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.160.0780.9580.110.100.04
RiceCUSA0.000.0723.5325.88-0.00-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0722.2219.97-0.00-0.04
UTSACUSA0.000.0744.4443.28-0.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.070.0726.3229.40-0.03-0.03
Green BayHorz0.070.0775.0075.520.030.04
IonaMAAC0.070.0772.7375.260.030.03
MaristMAAC0.070.0714.2916.72-0.05-0.05
MarylandB100.070.0781.8276.540.040.04
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0736.3643.14-0.02-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.070.0727.7832.64-0.03-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0745.0049.35-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.070.0736.8435.46-0.02-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.070.0750.0046.310.00-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.070.0768.4264.160.030.02
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0736.3640.39-0.02-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0722.2225.53-0.00-0.03
ToledoMAC0.070.0761.9060.170.020.01
West VirginiaB120.070.0785.7175.730.050.04
WisconsinB100.070.0790.4888.270.050.05
XavierBE0.070.0763.6464.030.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.060.0760.0059.190.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0775.0073.880.030.03
DuquesneA100.000.0731.5828.68-0.00-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0752.6353.920.000.01
George MasonA100.070.0731.5830.42-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.000.0772.7368.500.000.02
HofstraCAA0.060.0760.8764.330.010.02
HoustonAmer0.070.0740.0037.11-0.01-0.02
IowaB100.060.0761.9062.540.010.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0723.8134.41-0.03-0.02
LibertyBSth0.060.0710.5314.92-0.05-0.05
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0790.9187.360.050.05
RichmondA100.150.0757.1460.410.020.01
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0752.6353.480.000.00
TempleAmer0.130.0768.1865.090.050.02
TulaneAmer0.070.0757.1451.350.010.00
VCUA100.070.0780.9579.010.050.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0615.7921.13-0.04-0.04
ButlerBE0.060.0672.7371.820.030.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0630.0038.13-0.03-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.0610.0014.17-0.00-0.05
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0640.0037.61-0.01-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.060.0670.0064.720.020.02
NevadaMWC0.070.0622.2225.27-0.04-0.03
San DiegoWCC0.130.0650.0047.830.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0676.1976.490.030.03
San Jose St.MWC0.070.060.001.43-0.07-0.06
SeattleWAC0.060.0644.4447.73-0.01-0.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.060.0626.3228.59-0.03-0.03
UMBCAE0.060.0614.2917.14-0.04-0.04
UNLVMWC0.070.0657.1455.960.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.070.0655.0055.140.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0636.8436.89-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.070.0685.7180.350.050.04
North CarolinaACC0.140.0677.2774.970.070.03
VirginiaACC0.070.0695.0091.130.070.05
The CitadelSC0.060.0627.7831.47-0.03-0.02
Miami FLACC0.000.0670.0065.890.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.060.0642.8636.75-0.01-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.070.0444.4448.13-0.01-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.070.0444.4446.70-0.01-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0452.6360.480.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0470.0064.270.030.01
HarvardIvy0.080.0468.7569.630.030.01
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0461.9062.150.020.01
Miami OHMAC0.070.0435.0032.55-0.02-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0436.8437.56-0.02-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.080.0459.0962.480.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.070.0480.9579.380.040.02
Idaho St.BSky0.070.0315.0021.32-0.05-0.02
UC DavisBW0.070.0377.7869.520.040.01
Weber St.BSky0.070.0336.8442.01-0.02-0.01
CampbellBSth0.070.0325.0031.87-0.04-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0326.0929.52-0.03-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0357.8959.320.010.01
DaytonA100.070.0380.0077.350.040.02
DetroitHorz0.070.0340.9140.80-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.000.0323.5324.33-0.00-0.02
HartfordAE0.070.0347.6248.60-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0314.2917.22-0.05-0.02
La SalleA100.000.0357.1455.610.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.070.0338.1038.01-0.02-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0315.0019.83-0.05-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.0373.6869.970.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0345.0042.78-0.01-0.00
Saint LouisA100.070.0340.0035.39-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0321.0537.92-0.04-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0357.8953.420.000.00
TulsaAmer0.070.0380.0073.410.040.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0355.0053.850.010.00
Air ForceMWC0.000.0336.8436.52-0.00-0.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0350.0051.280.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.0333.3333.68-0.00-0.01
BaylorB120.060.0375.0071.710.030.01
Boise St.MWC0.070.0368.4269.350.020.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0313.0413.70-0.00-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0354.5555.020.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.060.0376.1971.260.030.01
SouthernSWAC0.070.0335.0045.71-0.02-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0347.6258.74-0.000.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0345.4543.46-0.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.060.0357.8960.710.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.060.0385.7185.840.040.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0345.0040.95-0.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0355.5654.030.010.00
DukeACC0.000.0385.7184.620.000.02
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0350.0048.020.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.060.0365.2265.290.020.01
Notre DameACC0.060.0386.9682.950.050.02
ProvidenceBE0.060.0372.7364.260.030.01
Wake ForestACC0.060.0345.4539.76-0.01-0.01