Stetson

Conference:	ASun
Expected RPI:	325.0
Current RPI:	325
Expected SOS:	335
Current SOS:	335
Current Record:	8-20
Expected Record:	8-20
Current Conf Record:	4-11
Expected Conf Record:	4-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-13
Current OOC Record:	4-9
Expected OOC Record:	4-9
Expected OOC RPI:	293
Expected OOC SOS:	324

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
8-20	325.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Stetson.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-12	FIU (295.0)	CUSA	A	64-70	W	100%
11-15	South Florida (278.0)	Amer	H	72-75	L	0%
11-18	SIU Edwardsville (287.0)	OVC	H	76-80	L	0%
11-22	South Alabama (270.0)	SB	A	77-81	W	100%
11-25	North Dakota St. (210.0)	Sum	A	94-58	L	0%
11-27	Green Bay (303.0)	Horz	A	71-83	W	100%
11-30	Campbell (267.0)	BSth	H	78-85	L	0%
12-6	Duquesne (259.0)	A10	A	73-59	L	0%
12-9	Marist (324.0)	MAAC	A	76-79	W	100%
12-16	Fort Wayne (209.0)	Sum	A	88-84	L	0%
12-19	UCF (84.0)	Amer	H	55-74	L	0%
12-29	Nebraska (56.0)	B10	A	71-62	L	0%
1-6	Florida Gulf Coast (172.0)	ASun	A	90-52	L	0%
1-11	NJIT (269.0)	ASun	H	80-67	W	100%
1-13	USC Upstate (344.0)	ASun	H	87-69	W	100%
1-15	Bethune Cookman (288.0)	MEAC	H	62-74	L	0%
1-18	Kennesaw St. (301.0)	ASun	A	95-81	L	0%
1-20	Lipscomb (101.0)	ASun	A	85-82	L	0%
1-24	Jacksonville (286.0)	ASun	A	76-69	L	0%
1-27	North Florida (218.0)	ASun	H	65-73	L	0%
1-29	Jacksonville (286.0)	ASun	H	67-68	L	0%
2-3	North Florida (218.0)	ASun	A	97-91	L	0%
2-8	USC Upstate (344.0)	ASun	A	91-79	L	0%
2-10	NJIT (269.0)	ASun	A	80-84	W	100%
2-15	Lipscomb (101.0)	ASun	H	73-82	L	0%
2-17	Kennesaw St. (301.0)	ASun	H	86-74	W	100%
2-22	Florida Gulf Coast (172.0)	ASun	H	60-76	L	0%
2-26	Lipscomb (101.0)	ASun	A	89-73	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Stetson's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Stetson's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Stetson.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Stetson	ASun	26.40	26.40	31.43	31.43	-9.81	-9.81
Lipscomb	ASun	6.22	6.22	65.38	65.38	1.91	1.91
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	4.63	4.63	62.07	62.07	1.12	1.12
Jacksonville	ASun	4.56	4.56	33.33	33.33	-1.52	-1.52
North Florida	ASun	4.53	4.53	32.14	32.14	-1.62	-1.62
Kennesaw St.	ASun	4.46	4.46	26.92	26.92	-2.06	-2.06
USC Upstate	ASun	4.46	4.46	7.69	7.69	-3.77	-3.77
NJIT	ASun	4.43	4.43	46.15	46.15	-0.34	-0.34
FIU	CUSA	1.96	1.96	39.29	39.29	-0.42	-0.42
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	1.94	1.94	51.72	51.72	0.07	0.07
Fort Wayne	Sum	1.91	1.91	48.15	48.15	-0.07	-0.07
South Florida	Amer	1.90	1.90	29.03	29.03	-0.80	-0.80
North Dakota St.	Sum	1.88	1.88	39.29	39.29	-0.40	-0.40
UCF	Amer	1.87	1.87	58.06	58.06	0.30	0.30
Campbell	BSth	1.85	1.85	44.44	44.44	-0.21	-0.21
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	1.85	1.85	27.59	27.59	-0.83	-0.83
South Alabama	SB	1.85	1.85	41.38	41.38	-0.32	-0.32
Nebraska	B10	1.84	1.84	67.74	67.74	0.65	0.65
Marist	MAAC	1.81	1.81	20.00	20.00	-1.09	-1.09
Duquesne	A10	1.79	1.79	48.39	48.39	-0.06	-0.06
Green Bay	Horz	1.79	1.79	34.48	34.48	-0.55	-0.55
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.28	0.28	44.44	44.44	-0.03	-0.03
Belmont	OVC	0.27	0.27	72.73	72.73	0.12	0.12
Denver	Sum	0.25	0.25	46.43	46.43	-0.02	-0.02
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.22	0.22	37.93	37.93	-0.05	-0.05
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.22	0.22	46.43	46.43	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.22	0.22	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.18	0.18	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.18	0.18	28.57	28.57	-0.08	-0.08
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.18	0.18	24.24	24.24	-0.09	-0.09
Michigan	B10	0.18	0.18	79.41	79.41	0.10	0.10
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.18	0.18	32.14	32.14	-0.06	-0.06
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.16	0.16	80.00	80.00	0.09	0.09
Western Illinois	Sum	0.16	0.16	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
Milwaukee	Horz	0.15	0.15	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.15	0.15	71.88	71.88	0.07	0.07
Purdue	B10	0.15	0.15	82.35	82.35	0.10	0.10
Navy	Pat	0.15	0.15	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Fairfield	MAAC	0.15	0.15	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.15	0.15	34.48	34.48	-0.05	-0.05
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.15	0.15	76.67	76.67	0.08	0.08
East Carolina	Amer	0.14	0.14	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
Wichita St.	Amer	0.14	0.14	78.12	78.12	0.08	0.08
Memphis	Amer	0.14	0.14	61.76	61.76	0.03	0.03
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.13	0.13	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Liberty	BSth	0.13	0.13	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.13	0.13	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.13	0.13	24.14	24.14	-0.06	-0.06
South Dakota	Sum	0.13	0.13	73.33	73.33	0.06	0.06
Georgia Southern	SB	0.12	0.12	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Morehead St.	OVC	0.12	0.12	22.22	22.22	-0.07	-0.07
Creighton	BE	0.12	0.12	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Detroit	Horz	0.12	0.12	20.00	20.00	-0.07	-0.07
West Virginia	B12	0.12	0.12	70.59	70.59	0.05	0.05
Alabama	SEC	0.12	0.12	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Minnesota	B10	0.12	0.12	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Rutgers	B10	0.12	0.12	42.42	42.42	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.12	0.12	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
North Texas	CUSA	0.12	0.12	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.12	0.12	26.67	26.67	-0.06	-0.06
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.12	0.12	6.67	6.67	-0.10	-0.10
Missouri	SEC	0.12	0.12	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Siena	MAAC	0.12	0.12	25.00	25.00	-0.06	-0.06
Tulane	Amer	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Houston	Amer	0.11	0.11	78.79	78.79	0.06	0.06
SMU	Amer	0.11	0.11	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Texas Tech	B12	0.09	0.09	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Washington	P12	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Brown	Ivy	0.09	0.09	38.46	38.46	-0.02	-0.02
Colgate	Pat	0.09	0.09	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.09	0.09	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
UMass Lowell	AE	0.09	0.09	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.09	0.09	75.76	75.76	0.05	0.05
Texas	B12	0.09	0.09	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.09	0.09	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Mercer	SC	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Oakland	Horz	0.09	0.09	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.09	0.09	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.09	0.09	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Charlotte	CUSA	0.09	0.09	17.86	17.86	-0.06	-0.06
North Dakota	BSky	0.09	0.09	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.09	0.09	13.33	13.33	-0.07	-0.07
Troy	SB	0.09	0.09	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
IUPUI	Horz	0.09	0.09	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
Murray St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	82.76	82.76	0.06	0.06
Indiana	B10	0.09	0.09	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Penn St.	B10	0.09	0.09	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Saint Louis	A10	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Appalachian St.	SB	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.09	0.09	58.62	58.62	0.02	0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.09	0.09	16.67	16.67	-0.06	-0.06
Michigan St.	B10	0.09	0.09	87.88	87.88	0.07	0.07
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.09	0.09	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
VCU	A10	0.09	0.09	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.09	0.09	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
UT Arlington	SB	0.09	0.09	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.09	0.09	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.09	0.09	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.09	0.09	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Cincinnati	Amer	0.08	0.08	88.24	88.24	0.06	0.06
Connecticut	Amer	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Temple	Amer	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Tulsa	Amer	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.06	0.06	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Butler	BE	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
High Point	BSth	0.06	0.06	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Lafayette	Pat	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.06	0.06	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Longwood	BSth	0.06	0.06	13.33	13.33	-0.05	-0.05
Presbyterian	BSth	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Radford	BSth	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Samford	SC	0.06	0.06	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Seattle	WAC	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
UMKC	WAC	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Wagner	NEC	0.06	0.06	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
Winthrop	BSth	0.06	0.06	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Georgetown	BE	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Missouri St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Rice	CUSA	0.06	0.06	17.24	17.24	-0.04	-0.04
UTEP	CUSA	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
The Citadel	SC	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Austin Peay	OVC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	32.35	32.35	-0.02	-0.02
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	15.62	15.62	-0.04	-0.04
Florida	SEC	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Georgia St.	SB	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.06	0.06	80.65	80.65	0.04	0.04
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
LSU	SEC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.06	0.06	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Wofford	SC	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
Elon	CAA	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
UTSA	CUSA	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Arkansas St.	SB	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Howard	MEAC	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
La Salle	A10	0.06	0.06	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Army	Pat	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Manhattan	MAAC	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.06	0.06	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
Rider	MAAC	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Dayton	A10	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
George Washington	A10	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
St. John's	BE	0.06	0.06	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Arizona	P12	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Hartford	AE	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
James Madison	CAA	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
USC	P12	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Boston University	Pat	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Cal Poly	BW	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.02	-0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Chicago St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	3.33	3.33	-0.03	-0.03
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Little Rock	SB	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Maine	AE	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
New Orleans	Slnd	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Texas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Valparaiso	MVC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Washington St.	P12	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Monmouth	MAAC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Cornell	Ivy	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Davidson	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
George Mason	A10	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Kansas	B12	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Long Beach St.	BW	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Maryland	B10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
San Francisco	WCC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
VMI	SC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00