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Through games of Feb 4, 2016.


Stetson

Conference:ASun
Expected RPI:299.3
Current RPI:269
Expected SOS:280
Current SOS:206
Current Record:5-15
Expected Record:8-19
Current Conf Record:3-5
Expected Conf Record:5-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-9
Current OOC Record:2-10
Expected OOC Record:3-10
Expected OOC RPI:291
Expected OOC SOS:225



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-15229.50.19%
11-16251.62.20%
10-17270.19.52%
9-18287.122.62%
8-19301.330.81%
7-20313.523.95%
6-21323.39.11%
5-22330.61.59%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Stetson.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Richmond (113.1)A10A108-85L0%0.0
11-17The Citadel (302.9)SCA94-93L0%0.0
11-20West Virginia (10.3)B12A103-62L0%0.0
11-26Bethune Cookman (308.3)MEACN83-70W100%0.0
11-27East Carolina (188.9)AmerN93-73L0%0.0
11-30FIU (227.1)CUSAA75-81W100%0.0
12-2UCF (189.6)AmerH85-94L0%0.0
12-5Tennessee St. (176.4)OVCA74-54L0%0.0
12-14Tennessee St. (176.4)OVCH90-93L0%0.0
12-19IPFW (77.3)SumA95-89L0%0.0
12-22Georgia Southern (256.4)SBA78-58L0%0.0
1-6North Florida (129.6)ASunH79-97L0%0.0
1-9Florida Gulf Coast (225.5)ASunA82-53L0%0.0
1-14USC Upstate (320.6)ASunH89-86W100%0.0
1-16NJIT (192.4)ASunH59-71L0%0.0
1-21Lipscomb (281.9)ASunA92-87L0%0.0
1-23Kennesaw St. (287.2)ASunA79-84W100%0.0
1-27Marquette (119.8)BEA74-60L0%0.0
1-30Jacksonville (250.3)ASunA75-60L0%0.0
2-1North Florida (129.6)ASunA82-86W100%0.0
2-6Jacksonville (250.3)ASunH0-047%-0.8
2-11NJIT (192.4)ASunA0-014%-11.9
2-13USC Upstate (320.6)ASunA0-043%-1.8
2-18Kennesaw St. (287.2)ASunH0-057%1.9
2-20Lipscomb (281.9)ASunH0-046%-1.0
2-22Bethune Cookman (308.3)MEACH0-065%4.2
2-25Florida Gulf Coast (225.5)ASunH0-031%-5.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Stetson's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Stetson's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Stetson.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
StetsonASun26.4226.4831.5232.19-9.76-9.43
Kennesaw St.ASun3.154.6123.8124.49-1.65-2.35
USC UpstateASun3.144.6025.0024.78-1.57-2.32
JacksonvilleASun3.084.6045.0045.58-0.31-0.41
LipscombASun3.094.5818.1823.98-1.96-2.38
North FloridaASun5.414.5470.0070.842.161.89
Florida Gulf CoastASun3.024.5342.1146.67-0.48-0.30
NJITASun2.964.5150.0051.660.000.15
Bethune CookmanMEAC2.803.9030.0036.01-1.12-1.09
Tennessee St.OVC5.113.8361.1157.671.140.59
The CitadelSC2.682.0231.5828.85-0.99-0.85
West VirginiaB122.682.0180.9578.011.661.13
FIUCUSA2.681.9945.0047.57-0.27-0.10
East CarolinaAmer2.681.9842.8640.05-0.38-0.39
UCFAmer2.671.9852.6345.300.14-0.19
Georgia SouthernSB2.621.9533.3334.99-0.87-0.59
RichmondA102.621.9550.0052.080.000.08
IPFWSum2.561.9272.7369.141.160.74
MarquetteBE2.501.8563.6455.090.680.19
BelmontOVC0.340.3669.5770.030.130.14
Florida A&MMEAC0.350.3621.0523.70-0.20-0.19
Austin PeayOVC0.400.2634.7837.55-0.12-0.07
South FloridaAmer0.240.2620.8320.11-0.14-0.15
NavyPat0.230.2465.2265.220.070.07
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.120.2326.0930.34-0.06-0.09
South Carolina St.MEAC0.180.2347.6252.95-0.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.180.2126.0925.57-0.09-0.10
Tennessee TechOVC0.180.2066.6765.400.060.06
FloridaSEC0.240.2068.1867.800.090.07
UNC GreensboroSC0.240.2030.0033.57-0.10-0.07
ChattanoogaSC0.240.2085.7184.560.170.14
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.230.1923.8128.31-0.12-0.08
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.180.1750.0046.870.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.120.1645.4547.97-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.240.1626.3227.35-0.11-0.07
LSUSEC0.220.1663.6459.440.060.03
IUPUISum0.170.1641.6740.25-0.03-0.03
OhioMAC0.190.1460.0057.940.040.02
Texas A&MSEC0.120.1481.8281.000.080.09
Morehead St.OVC0.000.1452.3854.240.000.01
South DakotaSum0.170.1439.1339.48-0.04-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.120.1476.1976.210.060.07
Appalachian St.SB0.130.1327.2730.42-0.06-0.05
MassachusettsA100.130.1342.8639.88-0.02-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.130.1370.0068.920.050.05
UABCUSA0.120.1381.8278.320.080.08
LouisvilleACC0.170.1381.8277.490.110.07
MercerSC0.120.1371.4370.590.050.05
SamfordSC0.120.1340.9143.36-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.170.1334.7841.60-0.05-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.240.1316.6720.72-0.16-0.08
VCUA100.170.1377.2776.770.090.07
AkronMAC0.110.1380.9579.160.070.07
DenverSum0.110.1352.1748.790.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.170.1328.5728.87-0.07-0.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.1326.3236.92-0.00-0.03
MemphisAmer0.120.1259.0958.570.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.110.1278.2671.960.060.05
St. John'sBE0.160.1227.2724.41-0.07-0.06
TempleAmer0.110.1261.9058.400.030.02
TulaneAmer0.060.1233.3332.42-0.02-0.04
TulsaAmer0.180.1263.6459.930.050.02
James MadisonCAA0.230.1269.5768.670.090.05
Louisiana TechCUSA0.120.1075.0072.210.060.05
La SalleA100.120.1021.0520.90-0.07-0.06
WinthropBSth0.130.1065.0063.360.040.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.180.1018.1822.84-0.11-0.05
Western MichiganMAC0.110.1035.0036.61-0.03-0.03
ElonCAA0.120.1054.5553.030.010.01
IndianaB100.110.1082.6177.360.070.05
DaytonA100.110.1085.7181.210.080.06
Saint LouisA100.110.1038.1033.39-0.03-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.130.1031.5833.50-0.05-0.03
Arizona St.P120.110.1052.1750.250.000.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.120.1090.0086.110.100.07
Louisiana MonroeSB0.120.1040.0044.99-0.02-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.170.1040.9143.01-0.03-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.180.0936.3642.18-0.05-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0972.7372.460.030.04
HoustonAmer0.060.0972.7368.010.030.03
DavidsonA100.120.0957.8955.420.020.01
George WashingtonA100.120.0977.2771.670.070.04
ButlerBE0.120.0968.1866.480.040.03
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0973.9173.090.000.04
SMUAmer0.120.0990.4885.540.100.07
Texas TechB120.120.0961.9054.010.030.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0755.0048.830.01-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.060.0744.4446.93-0.01-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0731.8233.76-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.130.0733.3334.18-0.04-0.02
ClemsonACC0.060.0763.6462.330.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0750.0048.760.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.130.0738.1042.99-0.03-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.060.0768.1863.240.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.130.0752.1747.620.01-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.130.0731.8234.36-0.05-0.02
MaristMAAC0.060.0719.0521.34-0.04-0.04
Murray St.OVC0.130.0747.6252.91-0.010.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.130.0714.2916.31-0.09-0.05
TennesseeSEC0.130.0750.0048.260.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.060.0730.0034.84-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.060.0757.1452.310.010.00
ArkansasSEC0.110.0750.0054.850.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0745.0041.83-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0757.1457.920.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.110.0738.8943.23-0.03-0.01
FurmanSC0.060.0754.5553.780.010.00
Georgia St.SB0.070.0761.1158.310.010.01
HartfordAE0.110.0726.0926.47-0.05-0.03
IllinoisB100.110.0747.8344.51-0.00-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0757.8961.910.010.02
South AlabamaSB0.070.0735.0034.92-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.070.0741.1840.27-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.070.0720.0023.76-0.04-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.130.0765.0068.740.040.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.110.0715.0015.65-0.08-0.05
VMISC0.060.0716.6718.98-0.04-0.04
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0725.0029.91-0.03-0.03
WoffordSC0.060.0738.1043.38-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.050.0673.9175.000.030.03
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0652.1754.440.000.01
BrownIvy0.060.0629.4129.72-0.02-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0668.4265.480.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0615.7922.52-0.04-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0610.0014.87-0.00-0.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0681.8281.000.040.04
HamptonMEAC0.060.0660.0061.320.010.01
HowardMEAC0.060.0640.0042.58-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0666.6761.680.020.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0672.7369.690.020.03
LafayettePat0.050.0623.8125.23-0.03-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0627.2732.87-0.03-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0661.9062.050.010.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0621.0529.17-0.03-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0659.0959.470.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0638.1047.48-0.01-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0661.9060.410.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0647.8348.71-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.050.0668.7573.150.020.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0647.3750.50-0.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0631.8232.32-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0685.7176.020.040.03
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0647.6249.34-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.050.0680.0082.450.030.04
ToledoMAC0.060.0657.1457.580.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.050.0633.3332.89-0.02-0.02
UMBCAE0.050.0620.8325.00-0.03-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.060.0650.0050.040.000.00
UTSACUSA0.060.0614.2913.98-0.04-0.05
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0627.7829.23-0.02-0.03
YaleIvy0.050.0670.5972.600.020.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.120.0661.9059.920.030.01
Old DominionCUSA0.120.0654.5561.940.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.120.0647.8350.56-0.010.00
FordhamA100.060.0657.8954.300.010.01
George MasonA100.060.0636.3635.32-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.120.0663.6461.820.030.01
BaylorB120.000.0676.1967.340.000.02
CreightonBE0.000.0660.8759.050.000.01
DePaulBE0.050.0636.3634.96-0.01-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.050.0656.5253.440.010.00
Iowa St.B120.060.0672.7368.840.030.02
KansasB120.060.0680.9577.010.040.03
Kansas St.B120.110.0659.0955.560.020.01
OklahomaB120.060.0690.4884.910.050.04
San Diego St.MWC0.110.0671.4370.810.050.02
Seton HallBE0.110.0672.7368.660.050.02
TCUB120.060.0645.4537.84-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.060.0668.1861.760.020.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0686.3685.330.040.04
XavierBE0.050.0690.9184.430.040.04
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0650.0045.740.00-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.060.0342.8635.05-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.070.0342.8637.22-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.060.0330.0030.38-0.03-0.01
DukeACC0.070.0372.7369.900.030.01
MississippiSEC0.070.0363.6456.050.020.00
BinghamtonAE0.060.0322.7326.19-0.03-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.050.0331.5836.17-0.02-0.01
DetroitHorz0.060.0345.0044.39-0.01-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.035.267.23-0.06-0.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0350.0050.870.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0330.0029.47-0.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0366.6760.120.020.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0325.0028.19-0.00-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0333.3333.65-0.02-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.060.0372.7371.670.030.01
UtahP120.050.0372.7368.550.020.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0380.9583.030.030.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0347.6247.96-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.000.0366.6758.770.000.01
LongwoodBSth0.060.0319.0522.38-0.04-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0352.1754.150.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.060.0354.5555.960.010.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.060.0381.8277.420.040.02
St. BonaventureA100.060.0370.0069.090.020.01
Wake ForestACC0.060.0345.4542.13-0.01-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.050.034.557.91-0.05-0.03
IowaB100.050.0381.8279.900.030.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0350.0056.530.000.00
MaineAE0.050.0336.3635.58-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.060.0330.0032.46-0.02-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0325.0022.59-0.03-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0375.0071.270.030.01
VirginiaACC0.060.0381.8276.020.040.02
Virginia TechACC0.060.0352.1747.260.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.050.0360.8755.900.010.00