Stetson

Conference:	ASun
Expected RPI:	220.0
Current RPI:	220
Expected SOS:	256
Current SOS:	256
Current Record:	14-16
Expected Record:	14-16
Current Conf Record:	12-8
Expected Conf Record:	12-8
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	13-6
Current OOC Record:	2-8
Expected OOC Record:	2-8
Expected OOC RPI:	272
Expected OOC SOS:	148

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
14-16	220.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Stetson.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Miami FL (4.0)	ACC	A	87-79	L	0%
11-13	Florida A&M (331.0)	MEAC	H	88-66	W	100%
11-26	South Florida (156.0)	BE	H	54-63	L	0%
11-28	Virginia Commonwealth (24.0)	A10	A	92-56	L	0%
12-3	Bethune Cookman (277.0)	MEAC	A	86-63	L	0%
12-6	Florida Atlantic (218.0)	SB	H	78-88	L	0%
12-9	Florida International (111.0)	SB	H	79-82	L	0%
12-15	Richmond (92.0)	A10	A	76-57	L	0%
12-18	Florida Atlantic (218.0)	SB	A	68-69	W	100%
12-20	Central Florida (103.0)	CUSA	A	83-66	L	0%
12-31	Mercer (137.0)	ASun	A	70-64	L	0%
1-2	Kennesaw St. (341.0)	ASun	A	60-70	W	100%
1-5	North Florida (230.0)	ASun	H	74-90	L	0%
1-7	Jacksonville (281.0)	ASun	H	81-72	W	100%
1-10	East Tennessee St. (275.0)	ASun	A	70-72	W	100%
1-12	South Carolina Upstate (225.0)	ASun	A	64-66	W	100%
1-17	Northern Kentucky (264.0)	ASun	H	71-59	W	100%
1-19	Lipscomb (237.0)	ASun	H	85-69	W	100%
1-25	Florida Gulf Coast (94.0)	ASun	A	96-65	L	0%
1-31	Jacksonville (281.0)	ASun	A	71-70	L	0%
2-2	North Florida (230.0)	ASun	A	64-59	L	0%
2-7	South Carolina Upstate (225.0)	ASun	H	73-66	W	100%
2-9	East Tennessee St. (275.0)	ASun	H	61-62	L	0%
2-14	Lipscomb (237.0)	ASun	A	66-76	W	100%
2-16	Northern Kentucky (264.0)	ASun	A	46-62	W	100%
2-22	Florida Gulf Coast (94.0)	ASun	H	80-71	W	100%
2-28	Kennesaw St. (341.0)	ASun	H	91-77	W	100%
3-2	Mercer (137.0)	ASun	H	65-77	L	0%
3-7	East Tennessee St. (275.0)	ASun	N	67-46	W	100%
3-8	Florida Gulf Coast (94.0)	ASun	N	72-58	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Stetson's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Stetson's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Stetson.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Stetson	ASun	26.58	26.58	47.89	47.89	-1.12	-1.12
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	6.12	6.12	68.97	68.97	2.32	2.32
East Tennessee St.	ASun	5.96	5.96	28.57	28.57	-2.55	-2.55
Mercer	ASun	4.52	4.52	63.33	63.33	1.20	1.20
North Florida	ASun	4.46	4.46	34.48	34.48	-1.38	-1.38
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	4.43	4.43	48.28	48.28	-0.15	-0.15
Jacksonville	ASun	4.40	4.40	39.29	39.29	-0.94	-0.94
Lipscomb	ASun	4.37	4.37	40.74	40.74	-0.81	-0.81
Kennesaw St.	ASun	4.32	4.32	10.71	10.71	-3.39	-3.39
Northern Kentucky	ASun	4.31	4.31	44.00	44.00	-0.52	-0.52
Florida Atlantic	SB	3.39	3.39	41.38	41.38	-0.58	-0.58
Florida International	SB	1.91	1.91	54.84	54.84	0.18	0.18
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	1.88	1.88	75.76	75.76	0.97	0.97
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	1.83	1.83	35.48	35.48	-0.53	-0.53
Miami FL	ACC	1.83	1.83	81.25	81.25	1.14	1.14
Florida A&M	MEAC	1.83	1.83	21.43	21.43	-1.04	-1.04
Central Florida	CUSA	1.80	1.80	60.71	60.71	0.39	0.39
South Florida	BE	1.72	1.72	36.67	36.67	-0.46	-0.46
Richmond	A10	1.72	1.72	54.84	54.84	0.17	0.17
Georgia	SEC	0.24	0.24	46.88	46.88	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.24	0.24	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.22	0.22	14.29	14.29	-0.16	-0.16
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.21	0.21	84.85	84.85	0.15	0.15
Troy	SB	0.21	0.21	36.36	36.36	-0.06	-0.06
North Carolina	ACC	0.21	0.21	69.70	69.70	0.08	0.08
Western Kentucky	SB	0.21	0.21	55.88	55.88	0.02	0.02
Hampton	MEAC	0.20	0.20	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Memphis	CUSA	0.19	0.19	88.24	88.24	0.15	0.15
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.19	0.19	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Belmont	OVC	0.17	0.17	80.00	80.00	0.10	0.10
Pittsburgh	BE	0.16	0.16	75.00	75.00	0.08	0.08
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.16	0.16	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Arkansas St.	SB	0.16	0.16	60.00	60.00	0.03	0.03
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.16	0.16	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.16	0.16	14.81	14.81	-0.11	-0.11
North Texas	SB	0.16	0.16	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
South Alabama	SB	0.16	0.16	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Charlotte	A10	0.16	0.16	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Florida St.	ACC	0.16	0.16	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Duke	ACC	0.15	0.15	84.38	84.38	0.11	0.11
San Francisco	WCC	0.14	0.14	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.14	0.14	52.94	52.94	0.01	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.14	0.14	76.47	76.47	0.07	0.07
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.14	0.14	37.04	37.04	-0.04	-0.04
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.13	0.13	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
St. Louis	A10	0.13	0.13	81.82	81.82	0.08	0.08
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.11	0.11	25.00	25.00	-0.06	-0.06
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.11	0.11	67.86	67.86	0.04	0.04
Georgia Southern	SC	0.11	0.11	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Indiana	B10	0.11	0.11	81.82	81.82	0.07	0.07
Chattanooga	SC	0.11	0.11	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Furman	SC	0.11	0.11	17.24	17.24	-0.07	-0.07
Kansas St.	B12	0.11	0.11	78.79	78.79	0.06	0.06
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.11	0.11	31.25	31.25	-0.04	-0.04
James Madison	CAA	0.11	0.11	58.82	58.82	0.02	0.02
Arizona	P12	0.11	0.11	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Hawaii	BW	0.11	0.11	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	22.58	22.58	-0.06	-0.06
George Mason	CAA	0.11	0.11	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
St. John's	BE	0.11	0.11	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Dayton	A10	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.10	0.10	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Massachusetts	A10	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Texas Tech	B12	0.09	0.09	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Tulsa	CUSA	0.09	0.09	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.08	0.08	20.69	20.69	-0.05	-0.05
Notre Dame	BE	0.08	0.08	73.53	73.53	0.04	0.04
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.08	0.08	7.14	7.14	-0.07	-0.07
Wofford	SC	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Louisville	BE	0.08	0.08	85.29	85.29	0.06	0.06
Minnesota	B10	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Old Dominion	CAA	0.08	0.08	16.67	16.67	-0.05	-0.05
Clemson	ACC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	28.12	28.12	-0.03	-0.03
Iowa St.	B12	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Maine	AE	0.08	0.08	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Samford	SC	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Toledo	MAC	0.08	0.08	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.08	0.08	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
La Salle	A10	0.08	0.08	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Navy	Pat	0.06	0.06	23.33	23.33	-0.03	-0.03
Ohio St.	B10	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
San Diego	WCC	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Austin Peay	OVC	0.06	0.06	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
East Carolina	CUSA	0.06	0.06	53.85	53.85	0.00	0.00
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Houston	CUSA	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.06	0.06	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
UAB	CUSA	0.06	0.06	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Radford	BSth	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Rider	MAAC	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Towson	CAA	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
American	Pat	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.05	0.05	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Elon	SC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
NC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.05	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Portland	WCC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Utah Valley	GWC	0.05	0.05	35.71	35.71	-0.02	-0.02
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Denver	WAC	0.05	0.05	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
New Mexico	MWC	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Butler	A10	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Temple	A10	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Presbyterian	BSth	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Providence	BE	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Syracuse	BE	0.03	0.03	74.29	74.29	0.01	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.03	0.03	42.31	42.31	-0.00	-0.00
Davidson	SC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Liberty	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
New Orleans	ind	0.03	0.03	18.18	18.18	-0.02	-0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.03	0.03	85.19	85.19	0.02	0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Valparaiso	Horz	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Detroit	Horz	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Maryland	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.02	0.02	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.02	0.02	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.02	0.02	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.02	0.02	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.02	0.02	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01