live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Stetson

Conference:ASun
Expected RPI:333.0
Current RPI:333
Expected SOS:287
Current SOS:287
Current Record:7-24
Expected Record:7-24
Current Conf Record:5-14
Expected Conf Record:5-14
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-12
Current OOC Record:2-10
Expected OOC Record:2-10
Expected OOC RPI:344
Expected OOC SOS:318



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
7-24333.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Stetson.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Clemson (79.0)ACCA71-51L0%0.0
11-10Notre Dame (136.0)ACCA80-49L0%0.0
11-14Florida A&M (295.0)MEACA63-60L0%0.0
11-18FIU (202.0)CUSAA75-66L0%0.0
11-22South Florida (232.0)AmerA72-63L0%0.0
11-25Wagner (218.0)NECN64-81L0%0.0
11-26Southern Illinois (200.0)MVCN67-48L0%0.0
11-27UNC Greensboro (301.0)SCN68-75L0%0.0
11-30Davidson (126.0)SCH80-86L0%0.0
12-3Bethune Cookman (343.0)MEACH56-52W100%0.0
12-7UCF (220.0)AmerA77-58L0%0.0
12-17Florida Atlantic (270.0)CUSAH64-62W100%0.0
12-30Lipscomb (209.0)ASunH65-63W100%0.0
1-1Northern Kentucky (310.0)ASunH65-67L0%0.0
1-5Florida Gulf Coast (146.0)ASunH55-68L0%0.0
1-9Jacksonville (282.0)ASunA88-75L0%0.0
1-11North Florida (189.0)ASunA74-60L0%0.0
1-16East Tennessee St. (206.0)ASunH64-58W100%0.0
1-18USC Upstate (163.0)ASunH77-73W100%0.0
1-23Kennesaw St. (324.0)ASunA65-68W100%0.0
1-25Mercer (81.0)ASunA87-49L0%0.0
1-31Florida Gulf Coast (146.0)ASunA71-68L0%0.0
2-6North Florida (189.0)ASunH52-54L0%0.0
2-8Jacksonville (282.0)ASunH73-68W100%0.0
2-15East Tennessee St. (206.0)ASunA93-66L0%0.0
2-17USC Upstate (163.0)ASunA66-48L0%0.0
2-21Kennesaw St. (324.0)ASunH63-67L0%0.0
2-23Mercer (81.0)ASunH52-73L0%0.0
2-27Northern Kentucky (310.0)ASunA96-58L0%0.0
3-1Lipscomb (209.0)ASunA83-76L0%0.0
3-4Florida Gulf Coast (146.0)ASunA77-55L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Stetson's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Stetson's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Stetson.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
StetsonASun26.4126.4119.6919.69-16.01-16.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun5.885.8858.6258.621.011.01
MercerASun4.324.3272.4172.411.941.94
East Tennessee St.ASun4.274.2753.3353.330.280.28
JacksonvilleASun4.264.2634.6234.62-1.31-1.31
USC UpstateASun4.244.2455.1755.170.440.44
North FloridaASun4.214.2142.8642.86-0.60-0.60
LipscombASun4.184.1848.1548.15-0.15-0.15
Kennesaw St.ASun4.164.1611.1111.11-3.23-3.23
Northern KentuckyASun4.134.1325.0025.00-2.07-2.07
Florida A&MMEAC1.851.8537.9337.93-0.45-0.45
FIUCUSA1.851.8544.4444.44-0.21-0.21
Bethune CookmanMEAC1.801.8017.2417.24-1.18-1.18
South FloridaAmer1.801.8035.4835.48-0.52-0.52
UCFAmer1.771.7735.7135.71-0.51-0.51
Florida AtlanticCUSA1.761.7627.5927.59-0.79-0.79
DavidsonSC1.691.6960.0060.000.340.34
UNC GreensboroSC1.661.6635.7135.71-0.48-0.48
ClemsonACC1.661.6661.2961.290.380.38
Notre DameACC1.641.6445.1645.16-0.16-0.16
Southern IllinoisMVC1.611.6138.7138.71-0.36-0.36
WagnerNEC1.611.6158.6258.620.280.28
SamfordSC0.260.2633.3333.33-0.09-0.09
CincinnatiAmer0.240.2481.8281.820.150.15
Georgia TechACC0.230.2348.4848.48-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.220.2236.6736.67-0.06-0.06
ChattanoogaSC0.190.1951.7251.720.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.190.1925.0025.00-0.10-0.10
Wake ForestACC0.190.1951.5251.520.010.01
RutgersAmer0.190.1934.3834.38-0.06-0.06
CharlotteCUSA0.180.1854.8454.840.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.180.1842.4242.42-0.03-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.180.1871.8871.880.080.08
Austin PeayOVC0.180.1835.7135.71-0.05-0.05
FurmanSC0.180.1825.9325.93-0.09-0.09
Georgia SouthernSC0.160.1638.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Florida St.ACC0.160.1659.3859.380.030.03
Western CarolinaSC0.160.1651.6151.610.010.01
TempleAmer0.160.1629.0329.03-0.07-0.07
ValparaisoHorz0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.150.1561.7661.760.040.04
LouisvilleAmer0.130.1385.2985.290.100.10
IndianaB100.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
ElonSC0.130.1355.1755.170.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.130.1329.0329.03-0.06-0.06
Tennessee TechOVC0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.130.1329.0329.03-0.05-0.05
DukeACC0.130.1376.4776.470.070.07
FloridaSEC0.110.1194.1294.120.100.10
Youngstown St.Horz0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.110.1170.9770.970.050.05
TulaneCUSA0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.110.1120.6920.69-0.06-0.06
Kent St.MAC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.110.1113.7913.79-0.08-0.08
The CitadelSC0.110.1113.7913.79-0.08-0.08
HamptonMEAC0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.110.1125.8125.81-0.05-0.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.110.1183.8783.870.070.07
San DiegoWCC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.110.1141.1841.18-0.02-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
HoustonAmer0.110.1151.5251.520.000.00
MemphisAmer0.110.1170.9770.970.040.04
SMUAmer0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Morehead St.OVC0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.100.1022.5822.58-0.06-0.06
EvansvilleMVC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
WinthropBSth0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
VirginiaACC0.100.1082.3582.350.070.07
Indiana St.MVC0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0870.9770.970.040.04
GeorgetownBE0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.080.0878.7978.790.050.05
UABCUSA0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
Appalachian St.SC0.080.0819.2319.23-0.05-0.05
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
HowardMEAC0.080.0819.3519.35-0.05-0.05
Murray St.OVC0.080.0859.2659.260.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.080.0816.1316.13-0.05-0.05
WoffordSC0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
Miami FLACC0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0821.2121.21-0.04-0.04
MarylandACC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.080.08100.00100.000.080.08
BradleyMVC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
HartfordAE0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
IonaMAAC0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
NebraskaB100.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
PittsburghACC0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
RadfordBSth0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
Western KentuckySB0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0680.6580.650.030.03
TulsaCUSA0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
UTEPCUSA0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
UTSACUSA0.060.0622.2222.22-0.03-0.03
IPFWSum0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
NavyPat0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
PurdueB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
ToledoMAC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
AuburnSEC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
DenverSum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
MississippiSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
OhioMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
OklahomaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
TexasB120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.050.0551.8551.850.000.00
DrakeMVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0593.1093.100.040.04
SyracuseACC0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
Georgia St.SB0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
High PointBSth0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0386.2186.210.020.02
UICHorz0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
PennIvy0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0370.3770.370.010.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
VermontAE0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
ArmyPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
CornellIvy0.030.033.703.70-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
George MasonA100.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0378.5778.570.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
VMIBSth0.030.0355.5655.560.000.00