Stetson

Conference:	ASun
Expected RPI:	255.4
Current RPI:	264
Expected SOS:	175
Current SOS:	197
Current Record:	7-15
Expected Record:	9-19
Current Conf Record:	5-7
Expected Conf Record:	7-11
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.52%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-5
Current OOC Record:	2-8
Expected OOC Record:	2-8
Expected OOC RPI:	235
Expected OOC SOS:	72

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
13-15	180.0	0.03%
12-16	197.8	0.71%
11-17	214.4	4.87%
10-18	233.2	17.54%
9-19	252.4	34.77%
8-20	269.6	31.64%
7-21	283.5	10.43%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Stetson.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Bethune Cookman (260.5)	MEAC	H	65-60	W	100%	0.0
11-14	Florida A&M (329.2)	MEAC	A	60-78	W	100%	0.0
11-16	Florida St. (21.9)	ACC	A	79-66	L	0%	0.0
11-21	Charleston Southern (151.0)	BSth	A	73-64	L	0%	0.0
11-28	Florida (14.9)	SEC	N	96-70	L	0%	0.0
12-1	East Tennessee St. (190.6)	ASun	H	73-65	W	100%	0.0
12-4	Indiana (20.6)	B10	A	84-50	L	0%	0.0
12-17	South Carolina Upstate (159.3)	ASun	H	63-79	L	0%	0.0
12-21	Charleston Southern (151.0)	BSth	H	81-88	L	0%	0.0
12-29	Central Florida (72.7)	CUSA	A	80-70	L	0%	0.0
12-30	James Madison (251.6)	CAA	N	69-71	L	0%	0.0
1-2	Kennesaw St. (317.6)	ASun	A	62-66	W	100%	0.0
1-4	Mercer (98.0)	ASun	A	75-59	L	0%	0.0
1-7	Jacksonville (285.8)	ASun	H	73-61	W	100%	0.0
1-9	North Florida (183.0)	ASun	H	68-64	W	100%	0.0
1-14	Belmont (70.5)	ASun	A	84-71	L	0%	0.0
1-16	Lipscomb (208.1)	ASun	A	104-103	L	0%	0.0
1-20	Florida Gulf Coast (206.9)	ASun	H	85-92	L	0%	0.0
1-23	Savannah St. (214.3)	MEAC	A	75-45	L	0%	0.0
1-28	Mercer (98.0)	ASun	H	64-75	L	0%	0.0
1-30	Kennesaw St. (317.6)	ASun	H	75-59	W	100%	0.0
2-4	North Florida (183.0)	ASun	A	99-96	L	0%	0.0
2-6	Jacksonville (285.8)	ASun	A	0-0		43%	-1.9
2-11	Lipscomb (208.1)	ASun	H	0-0		53%	0.9
2-13	Belmont (70.5)	ASun	H	0-0		12%	-13.0
2-17	Florida Gulf Coast (206.9)	ASun	A	0-0		25%	-7.3
2-23	East Tennessee St. (190.6)	ASun	A	0-0		21%	-9.0
2-25	South Carolina Upstate (159.3)	ASun	A	0-0		23%	-8.2

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Stetson's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Stetson's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Stetson.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Stetson	ASun	26.52	26.48	30.85	31.81	-10.16	-9.63
North Florida	ASun	5.36	4.68	45.45	46.44	-0.49	-0.33
Jacksonville	ASun	3.18	4.67	18.18	21.52	-2.02	-2.66
East Tennessee St.	ASun	3.01	4.57	55.00	53.87	0.30	0.35
Belmont	ASun	3.01	4.55	68.18	71.79	1.09	1.98
Kennesaw St.	ASun	5.15	4.55	9.52	12.51	-4.17	-3.41
Mercer	ASun	5.15	4.55	68.18	69.61	1.87	1.79
Lipscomb	ASun	3.01	4.55	40.91	41.63	-0.55	-0.76
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	2.96	4.55	52.38	53.67	0.14	0.33
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	3.06	4.54	47.62	45.94	-0.15	-0.37
Charleston Southern	BSth	4.60	3.60	50.00	57.02	0.00	0.51
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	2.63	2.06	40.00	44.31	-0.53	-0.23
Savannah St.	MEAC	2.57	2.06	50.00	56.36	0.00	0.26
Florida St.	ACC	2.54	1.98	71.43	70.73	1.09	0.82
Florida A&M	MEAC	2.53	1.97	20.00	23.20	-1.52	-1.06
Florida	SEC	2.47	1.94	81.82	76.89	1.57	1.04
James Madison	CAA	2.33	1.85	37.50	38.19	-0.58	-0.44
Central Florida	CUSA	2.38	1.85	70.00	65.37	0.95	0.57
Indiana	B10	2.33	1.82	73.91	74.97	1.11	0.91
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.26	0.26	34.78	38.77	-0.08	-0.06
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.32	0.25	10.00	14.93	-0.25	-0.17
Auburn	SEC	0.35	0.24	56.52	48.81	0.05	-0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.22	0.22	33.33	37.25	-0.07	-0.06
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.16	0.22	38.89	43.93	-0.04	-0.03
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.26	0.22	60.87	59.76	0.06	0.04
Ohio St.	B10	0.29	0.21	86.96	85.46	0.21	0.15
Troy	SB	0.16	0.19	28.57	30.17	-0.07	-0.07
Memphis	CUSA	0.15	0.18	69.57	71.51	0.06	0.08
Marshall	CUSA	0.15	0.18	59.09	59.72	0.03	0.04
Miami FL	ACC	0.15	0.18	65.00	60.02	0.04	0.04
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.20	0.18	56.52	55.20	0.03	0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.10	0.18	33.33	35.97	-0.03	-0.05
Chattanooga	SC	0.29	0.18	27.27	35.02	-0.13	-0.05
High Point	BSth	0.17	0.17	31.82	32.75	-0.06	-0.06
UAB	CUSA	0.15	0.15	40.91	39.82	-0.03	-0.03
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.25	0.15	39.13	42.12	-0.06	-0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.14	0.15	68.18	69.10	0.05	0.06
Campbell	BSth	0.23	0.14	56.00	55.65	0.03	0.02
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.23	0.14	72.22	71.97	0.10	0.06
Liberty	BSth	0.11	0.14	27.27	27.21	-0.05	-0.06
Presbyterian	BSth	0.23	0.14	40.91	43.66	-0.04	-0.02
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.11	0.14	45.00	44.15	-0.01	-0.02
Radford	BSth	0.11	0.14	8.70	13.10	-0.09	-0.10
NC Asheville	BSth	0.17	0.13	68.18	67.64	0.06	0.05
Winthrop	BSth	0.16	0.13	34.78	34.61	-0.05	-0.04
Wofford	SC	0.05	0.13	59.09	57.93	0.01	0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.21	0.13	72.73	68.28	0.09	0.05
Appalachian St.	SC	0.11	0.13	35.00	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
Toledo	MAC	0.10	0.13	38.10	40.81	-0.02	-0.02
Charlotte	A10	0.15	0.12	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.11	0.12	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.10	0.12	34.78	38.42	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.10	0.12	19.05	24.61	-0.06	-0.06
Hampton	MEAC	0.10	0.12	36.36	38.48	-0.03	-0.03
Howard	MEAC	0.10	0.12	18.18	22.22	-0.06	-0.07
Tennessee	SEC	0.10	0.12	45.45	44.66	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.11	0.12	69.57	65.15	0.04	0.04
Furman	SC	0.14	0.12	47.62	48.83	-0.01	-0.00
Samford	SC	0.14	0.12	33.33	35.26	-0.05	-0.04
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.05	0.12	4.35	9.66	-0.05	-0.10
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.15	0.12	18.18	21.13	-0.10	-0.07
South Carolina	SEC	0.15	0.12	40.91	39.56	-0.03	-0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.20	0.12	75.00	73.97	0.10	0.06
Duke	ACC	0.10	0.12	86.36	83.09	0.07	0.08
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.10	0.12	83.33	84.76	0.07	0.08
Missouri	B12	0.19	0.12	91.30	87.18	0.16	0.09
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.12	4.00	5.26	-0.05	-0.10
Georgia	SEC	0.14	0.12	45.45	41.20	-0.01	-0.02
College of Charleston	SC	0.17	0.10	58.33	59.98	0.03	0.02
The Citadel	SC	0.16	0.10	9.52	11.44	-0.13	-0.08
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.11	0.10	38.10	37.86	-0.03	-0.02
Maryland	ACC	0.10	0.09	59.09	50.82	0.02	0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.11	0.09	20.00	19.96	-0.06	-0.06
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.09	68.18	69.68	0.02	0.04
Nebraska	B10	0.10	0.09	52.38	46.68	0.00	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.10	0.09	62.50	62.06	0.03	0.02
Tulsa	CUSA	0.15	0.09	60.87	59.05	0.03	0.02
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.09	72.73	64.43	0.02	0.03
St. Mary's	WCC	0.15	0.09	90.91	87.74	0.13	0.07
Old Dominion	CAA	0.15	0.09	60.00	58.29	0.03	0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.14	0.09	19.05	25.52	-0.09	-0.04
Wright St.	Horz	0.14	0.09	41.67	40.61	-0.02	-0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.10	0.09	76.19	72.91	0.05	0.04
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.09	95.83	92.57	0.04	0.07
Wichita St.	MVC	0.11	0.07	82.61	80.42	0.07	0.04
East Carolina	CUSA	0.05	0.06	44.44	41.71	-0.01	-0.01
Longwood	ind	0.05	0.06	30.00	27.84	-0.02	-0.03
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.05	0.06	77.27	73.45	0.03	0.03
Maine	AE	0.05	0.06	50.00	49.73	0.00	-0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.06	35.00	40.78	-0.02	-0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.06	47.62	46.46	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.05	0.06	85.71	82.18	0.04	0.04
Texas Christian	MWC	0.05	0.06	57.14	49.54	0.01	-0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.11	0.06	35.29	39.85	-0.03	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.06	25.00	37.58	-0.03	-0.02
Connecticut	BE	0.11	0.06	68.18	63.99	0.04	0.02
Harvard	Ivy	0.11	0.06	90.48	87.91	0.09	0.05
Princeton	Ivy	0.11	0.06	47.37	52.87	-0.01	0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.06	42.11	49.81	-0.01	-0.00
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.06	60.87	60.96	0.01	0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.05	0.06	25.00	28.52	-0.03	-0.03
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.06	73.91	68.43	0.02	0.02
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.06	79.17	75.98	0.03	0.03
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.06	100.00	94.55	0.05	0.05
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.05	0.06	44.00	45.89	-0.01	-0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.05	0.06	26.32	29.71	-0.02	-0.02
Texas St.	Slnd	0.05	0.06	22.22	27.62	-0.03	-0.03
Rhode Island	A10	0.10	0.06	20.83	20.60	-0.06	-0.04
Butler	Horz	0.10	0.06	50.00	50.80	0.00	0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.06	30.00	34.15	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.10	0.06	54.17	57.20	0.01	0.01
Navy	Pat	0.09	0.06	9.52	13.19	-0.08	-0.04
Niagara	MAAC	0.09	0.06	37.50	41.54	-0.02	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.10	0.06	81.82	77.20	0.06	0.03
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.09	0.06	26.32	29.79	-0.04	-0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.09	0.06	65.22	63.74	0.03	0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.09	0.06	73.91	75.49	0.05	0.03
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.05	0.06	56.52	53.10	0.01	0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.06	81.82	76.80	0.03	0.03
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.06	70.83	64.42	0.02	0.02
Drexel	CAA	0.00	0.06	79.17	78.10	0.00	0.03
George Mason	CAA	0.09	0.06	76.00	72.50	0.05	0.03
Georgia St.	CAA	0.05	0.06	66.67	69.69	0.02	0.02
Hofstra	CAA	0.09	0.06	32.00	35.39	-0.03	-0.02
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.06	54.17	49.44	0.00	-0.00
Michigan	B10	0.09	0.06	72.73	66.81	0.04	0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.06	69.57	61.31	0.02	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.09	0.06	41.67	38.67	-0.02	-0.01
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.06	65.22	60.58	0.01	0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.09	0.06	37.50	38.52	-0.02	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.06	69.57	65.87	0.02	0.02
William & Mary	CAA	0.09	0.06	12.50	13.44	-0.07	-0.04
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.03	68.18	67.91	0.02	0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.03	55.00	57.41	0.01	0.00
Hartford	AE	0.05	0.03	17.39	20.97	-0.04	-0.02
Houston	CUSA	0.05	0.03	47.62	44.63	-0.00	-0.00
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.03	54.17	54.75	0.00	0.00
Providence	BE	0.05	0.03	56.52	50.27	0.01	0.00
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.03	54.55	48.60	0.00	-0.00
Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.03	45.00	46.13	-0.01	-0.00
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.00	0.03	43.48	43.31	-0.00	-0.00
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.03	61.90	58.59	0.01	0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.05	0.03	34.78	37.24	-0.02	-0.01
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.03	90.91	83.85	0.04	0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.03	80.95	77.38	0.03	0.02
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.05	0.03	26.09	28.60	-0.03	-0.01
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.03	69.57	68.29	0.02	0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.00	0.03	30.43	26.44	-0.00	-0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.05	0.03	59.09	57.76	0.01	0.00
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.03	73.91	68.58	0.02	0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.05	0.03	34.78	33.46	-0.02	-0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.03	86.96	83.16	0.04	0.02
South Alabama	SB	0.05	0.03	52.38	52.87	0.00	0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.03	47.83	43.66	-0.00	-0.00
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.03	66.67	68.55	0.02	0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.03	17.39	19.81	-0.03	-0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.05	0.03	47.83	50.65	-0.00	0.00
Detroit	Horz	0.00	0.03	47.83	49.03	-0.00	-0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.05	0.03	45.45	44.02	-0.00	-0.00
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.03	34.78	32.08	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.03	71.43	69.05	0.02	0.01
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.03	70.83	68.82	0.02	0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.05	0.03	59.09	57.28	0.01	0.00
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.05	0.03	13.64	16.35	-0.03	-0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.03	63.64	56.71	0.01	0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.03	78.26	72.34	0.03	0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.03	50.00	58.16	0.00	0.00
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.03	39.13	36.10	-0.01	-0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.03	47.83	48.56	-0.00	-0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.00	0.03	61.90	55.14	0.00	0.00
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	62.65	0.01	0.01
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.05	0.03	54.55	56.84	0.00	0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.03	68.00	70.03	0.02	0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.05	0.03	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.00
Stony Brook	AE	0.05	0.03	66.67	68.05	0.02	0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.05	0.03	95.83	92.01	0.05	0.02
Texas A&M	B12	0.05	0.03	52.38	46.15	0.00	-0.00
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.05	0.03	80.00	78.06	0.03	0.02
Yale	Ivy	0.05	0.03	72.22	63.19	0.02	0.01