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Through games of Nov 21, 2014.


Akron

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:103.9
Current RPI:141
Expected SOS:134
Current SOS:159
Current Record:2-1
Expected Record:18-11
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-1
Current OOC Record:2-1
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:149
Expected OOC SOS:285



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-315.00.04%
25-422.30.18%
24-530.00.76%
23-637.72.36%
22-748.65.45%
21-860.710.01%
20-974.613.67%
19-1091.516.83%
18-11108.516.67%
17-12126.814.17%
16-13146.29.99%
15-14166.65.64%
14-15186.12.71%
13-16205.00.94%
12-17224.50.43%
11-18243.30.11%
10-19270.00.01%
9-20294.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Akron.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14UMBC (305.2)AEH74-57W100%0.0
11-20USC (224.1)P12N66-46W100%0.0
11-21Miami FL (18.8)ACCN79-51L0%0.0
11-25Penn St. (125.3)B10A0-037%-4.1
11-30Bryant (177.9)NECH0-078%9.3
12-2Arkansas Pine Bluff (312.0)SWACH0-094%18.5
12-4Western Illinois (281.8)SumH0-086%12.8
12-13Middle Tennessee (167.7)CUSAH0-072%7.1
12-16North Dakota St. (199.1)SumA0-057%2.1
12-30Marshall (147.0)CUSAH0-070%6.2
1-3Coppin St. (265.1)MEACH0-091%15.9
1-6Western Michigan (123.1)MACH0-068%5.7
1-9Toledo (74.4)MACA0-034%-5.0
1-14Bowling Green (102.4)MACH0-065%4.6
1-17Central Michigan (214.6)MACH0-082%10.8
1-21Northern Illinois (214.8)MACA0-061%3.4
1-24Western Michigan (123.1)MACA0-045%-1.5
1-27Ball St. (224.0)MACH0-084%12.0
1-31Bowling Green (102.4)MACA0-041%-2.6
2-4Ohio (128.2)MACA0-045%-1.5
2-7Buffalo (82.8)MACH0-064%4.5
2-10Kent St. (90.3)MACH0-060%3.0
2-14Eastern Michigan (167.0)MACA0-053%1.0
2-18Toledo (74.4)MACH0-057%2.2
2-21Miami OH (239.8)MACH0-086%13.0
2-24Buffalo (82.8)MACA0-041%-2.7
2-28Ohio (128.2)MACH0-068%5.7
3-3Miami OH (239.8)MACA0-068%5.8
3-6Kent St. (90.3)MACA0-036%-4.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Akron's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Akron's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Akron.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
AkronMAC33.3326.3161.5461.597.696.10
Kent St.MAC0.004.31100.0069.040.001.64
BuffaloMAC0.004.2966.6760.750.000.92
OhioMAC0.004.2750.0055.570.000.48
Miami OHMAC0.004.2550.0034.450.00-1.32
Bowling GreenMAC0.004.24100.0062.660.001.07
ToledoMAC0.004.2033.3364.49-0.001.22
Western MichiganMAC0.004.18100.0056.390.000.53
Eastern MichiganMAC0.002.62100.0051.060.000.06
Ball St.MAC0.002.590.0038.94-0.00-0.57
Northern IllinoisMAC0.002.59100.0045.770.00-0.22
Central MichiganMAC0.002.58100.0046.920.00-0.16
North Dakota St.Sum0.001.8533.3347.97-0.00-0.08
Western IllinoisSum0.001.790.0035.42-0.00-0.52
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.001.7925.0034.16-0.00-0.57
MarshallCUSA0.001.7866.6751.830.000.07
Coppin St.MEAC0.001.760.0032.51-0.00-0.61
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.001.750.0048.75-0.00-0.04
Penn St.B100.001.7575.0044.580.00-0.19
BryantNEC0.001.7250.0055.700.000.20
Miami FLACC16.671.72100.0072.2716.670.77
UMBCAE16.671.720.0036.87-16.67-0.45
USCP1216.671.7266.6727.665.56-0.77
DenverSum0.000.2050.0062.440.000.05
IPFWSum0.000.2050.0065.390.000.06
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.2033.3349.18-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.000.19100.0043.710.00-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1850.0054.170.000.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1733.3338.44-0.00-0.04
IUPUISum0.000.1733.3330.78-0.00-0.06
OaklandHorz0.000.160.0033.70-0.00-0.05
New HampshireAE0.000.160.0041.70-0.00-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.000.15100.0063.410.000.04
DaytonA100.000.1566.6769.310.000.06
LongwoodBSth0.000.1550.0021.230.00-0.09
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.1550.0043.330.00-0.02
OregonP120.000.15100.0070.690.000.06
CharlotteCUSA0.000.15100.0070.040.000.06
DrexelCAA4.170.140.0034.27-4.17-0.05
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1450.0035.570.00-0.04
Oral RobertsSum0.000.1433.3349.79-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.000.140.0036.84-0.00-0.04
DrakeMVC0.000.130.0028.82-0.00-0.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.130.0036.14-0.00-0.03
MaineAE0.000.120.0016.80-0.00-0.08
IowaB100.000.1250.0067.840.000.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.120.0027.11-0.00-0.06
Southern MissCUSA0.000.1250.0052.770.000.01
George WashingtonA100.000.1266.6777.370.000.07
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.120.0040.22-0.00-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.1250.0050.390.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.1250.0052.540.000.01
HowardMEAC2.080.120.0034.15-2.08-0.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.120.0038.98-0.00-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.000.120.0027.18-0.00-0.05
FIUCUSA0.000.12100.0043.610.00-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.120.0034.26-0.00-0.04
VermontAE0.000.1250.0066.020.000.04
BinghamtonAE0.000.120.0039.15-0.00-0.03
Ohio St.B100.000.12100.0073.590.000.06
WisconsinB100.000.11100.0081.110.000.07
PacificWCC0.000.1050.0029.930.00-0.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0933.3336.31-0.00-0.03
BelmontOVC0.000.0950.0072.160.000.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.090.0062.15-0.000.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0950.0049.560.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.090.0045.64-0.00-0.01
MichiganB100.000.09100.0066.870.000.03
Notre DameACC0.000.09100.0069.430.000.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.090.0037.45-0.00-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.090.0023.20-0.00-0.05
UtahP120.000.0966.6770.360.000.04
Michigan St.B100.000.0966.6771.300.000.04
DartmouthIvy0.000.090.0033.39-0.00-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0933.3336.04-0.00-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.090.0035.33-0.00-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0966.6768.330.000.03
Old DominionCUSA0.000.09100.0077.160.000.05
UABCUSA0.000.090.0043.40-0.00-0.01
YaleIvy0.000.0950.0057.440.000.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.090.0023.71-0.00-0.05
IllinoisB100.000.09100.0065.630.000.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.090.0015.85-0.00-0.06
Southern UtahBSky0.000.090.0024.22-0.00-0.05
StanfordP120.000.09100.0068.290.000.03
Arkansas St.SB0.000.090.0044.57-0.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0950.0041.690.00-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.09100.0079.370.000.05
MinnesotaB100.000.0950.0063.730.000.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0933.3354.24-0.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.090.0045.55-0.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.000.0933.3346.82-0.00-0.01
CornellIvy0.000.0940.0041.64-0.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.09100.0086.380.000.06
Virginia TechACC0.000.09100.0041.370.00-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0733.3352.91-0.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.000.07100.0069.720.000.03
San DiegoWCC0.000.0766.6748.270.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.000.0750.0047.220.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.060.0015.68-0.00-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.06100.0071.730.000.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0650.0040.180.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.060.0046.41-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0633.3343.51-0.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.000.060.0055.45-0.000.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.060.0034.26-0.00-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.0633.3359.35-0.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.060.0048.22-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.06100.0044.620.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.060.0041.63-0.00-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.06100.0075.400.000.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0625.0029.11-0.00-0.03
TowsonCAA0.000.0666.6745.850.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.06100.0063.380.000.02
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0666.6752.470.000.00
AlbanyAE0.000.0650.0063.960.000.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.060.0051.04-0.000.00
ArmyPat0.000.06100.0057.810.000.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0675.0073.240.000.03
ColoradoP120.000.06100.0068.420.000.02
ElonCAA0.000.0650.0040.300.00-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0650.0036.810.00-0.02
HartfordAE0.000.0666.6738.630.00-0.01
KansasB120.000.0650.0060.200.000.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0650.0041.040.00-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.060.0043.82-0.00-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.060.0038.29-0.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.060.0032.86-0.00-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.06100.0046.320.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.000.06100.0050.080.000.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0650.0031.730.00-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0650.0036.850.00-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0633.3351.38-0.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.060.0054.88-0.000.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.060.0051.62-0.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.0633.3363.09-0.000.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.06100.0029.380.00-0.02
UCLAP120.000.06100.0061.850.000.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0633.3331.34-0.00-0.02
UMKCWAC0.000.0650.0059.030.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.06100.0069.630.000.02
UTSACUSA0.000.060.0028.13-0.00-0.03
WagnerNEC0.000.060.0043.90-0.00-0.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0666.6751.250.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0038.65-0.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.06100.0057.010.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0650.0056.300.000.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0633.3335.37-0.00-0.02
KentuckySEC0.000.06100.0086.080.000.04
MarylandB100.000.06100.0063.680.000.02
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0650.0028.860.00-0.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0633.3338.27-0.00-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.060.0038.83-0.00-0.01
RutgersB100.000.0650.0036.270.00-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0038.27-0.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0666.6754.260.000.00
VCUA100.000.06100.0074.770.000.03
BradleyMVC0.000.030.0025.34-0.00-0.02
MemphisAmer0.000.030.0065.36-0.000.01
MontanaBSky0.000.030.0049.81-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.030.0024.76-0.00-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.000.030.0043.21-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.030.0035.17-0.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.030.0041.45-0.00-0.01
TexasB120.000.03100.0084.130.000.02
William & MaryCAA0.000.0350.0045.610.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.000.03100.0057.620.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.030.0028.95-0.00-0.01
DePaulBE0.000.03100.0037.800.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0016.72-0.00-0.02
HofstraCAA0.000.0366.6763.800.000.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0350.0051.340.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.0366.6747.240.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.030.0069.29-0.000.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.03100.0082.150.000.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0031.91-0.00-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.030.0027.23-0.00-0.01
ArizonaP120.000.03100.0068.970.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.03100.0058.420.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0366.6742.560.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.000.0333.3338.39-0.00-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.030.0038.57-0.00-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.030.0054.47-0.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.03100.0064.850.000.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0350.0066.890.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.030.0032.47-0.00-0.01
LehighPat0.000.030.0035.69-0.00-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0333.3328.03-0.00-0.01
Loyola MDPat4.170.0366.6738.521.39-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.030.0054.04-0.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.0350.0072.260.000.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0350.0052.120.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0375.0062.010.000.01
NJITind0.000.0333.3328.81-0.00-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.03100.0053.870.000.00
Portland St.BSky2.080.03100.0051.302.080.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0350.0055.220.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0027.72-0.00-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC2.080.030.0037.20-2.08-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.03100.0064.330.000.01
WashingtonP120.000.03100.0056.460.000.00
Washington St.P120.000.0333.3327.05-0.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.000.03100.0068.580.000.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0350.0045.330.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.030.0033.60-0.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0333.3344.93-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0325.0057.21-0.000.00
DuquesneA100.000.030.0051.78-0.000.00
FloridaSEC2.080.0366.6766.600.690.01
FordhamA100.000.030.0034.73-0.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.03100.0052.690.000.00
Green BayHorz0.000.030.0065.86-0.000.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0375.0054.690.000.00
High PointBSth0.000.03100.0058.330.000.00
HoustonAmer0.000.03100.0065.750.000.01
IndianaB100.000.03100.0063.850.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.03100.0051.030.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.03100.0066.050.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.03100.0059.140.000.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.03100.0062.680.000.01
PurdueB100.000.03100.0060.570.000.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0375.0070.210.000.01
Texas TechB120.000.0350.0043.560.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0076.260.000.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.0350.0041.490.00-0.00