live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Akron

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:115.0
Current RPI:115
Expected SOS:121
Current SOS:121
Current Record:20-14
Expected Record:20-14
Current Conf Record:12-10
Expected Conf Record:12-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-3
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:191
Expected OOC SOS:302



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-14115.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Akron.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14UMBC (346.0)AEH74-57W100%0.0
11-20USC (207.0)P12N66-46W100%0.0
11-21Miami FL (65.0)ACCN79-51L0%0.0
11-23South Carolina (91.0)SECN63-68W100%0.0
11-25Penn St. (108.0)B10A78-72L0%0.0
11-30Bryant (189.0)NECH72-66W100%0.0
12-2Arkansas Pine Bluff (302.0)SWACH81-60W100%0.0
12-4Western Illinois (328.0)SumH73-49W100%0.0
12-13Middle Tennessee (138.0)CUSAH61-62L0%0.0
12-16North Dakota St. (92.0)SumA55-46L0%0.0
12-30Marshall (296.0)CUSAH70-63W100%0.0
1-3Coppin St. (311.0)MEACH79-62W100%0.0
1-6Western Michigan (119.0)MACH72-52W100%0.0
1-9Toledo (79.0)MACA84-67L0%0.0
1-14Bowling Green (109.0)MACH67-50W100%0.0
1-17Central Michigan (70.0)MACH82-76W100%0.0
1-21Northern Illinois (185.0)MACA64-61L0%0.0
1-24Western Michigan (119.0)MACA69-71W100%0.0
1-27Ball St. (284.0)MACH59-47W100%0.0
1-31Bowling Green (109.0)MACA68-69W100%0.0
2-4Ohio (231.0)MACA83-82L0%0.0
2-7Buffalo (28.0)MACH75-72W100%0.0
2-10Kent St. (94.0)MACH61-52W100%0.0
2-14Eastern Michigan (139.0)MACA78-75L0%0.0
2-18Toledo (79.0)MACH66-68L0%0.0
2-21Miami OH (229.0)MACH52-57L0%0.0
2-24Buffalo (28.0)MACA67-62L0%0.0
2-27Ohio (231.0)MACH70-58W100%0.0
3-3Miami OH (229.0)MACA70-63L0%0.0
3-6Kent St. (94.0)MACA79-77L0%0.0
3-9Northern Illinois (185.0)MACH76-52W100%0.0
3-11Western Michigan (119.0)MACN45-58W100%0.0
3-12Kent St. (94.0)MACN51-53W100%0.0
3-13Buffalo (28.0)MACN68-59L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Akron's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Akron's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Akron.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
AkronMAC26.4826.4856.7256.723.563.56
BuffaloMAC5.215.2172.4172.412.342.34
Kent St.MAC5.185.1867.8667.861.851.85
Western MichiganMAC5.165.1664.2964.291.471.47
OhioMAC3.803.8032.1432.14-1.36-1.36
Bowling GreenMAC3.783.7871.4371.431.621.62
Miami OHMAC3.763.7634.4834.48-1.17-1.17
ToledoMAC3.743.7458.0658.060.600.60
Northern IllinoisMAC3.713.7144.4444.44-0.41-0.41
Eastern MichiganMAC2.452.4555.1755.170.250.25
Central MichiganMAC2.442.4474.0774.071.181.18
Ball St.MAC2.362.3621.4321.43-1.35-1.35
North Dakota St.Sum1.601.6068.9768.970.610.61
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC1.551.5538.7138.71-0.35-0.35
MarshallCUSA1.541.5431.0331.03-0.58-0.58
Western IllinoisSum1.521.5224.0024.00-0.79-0.79
Penn St.B101.521.5251.5251.520.050.05
Coppin St.MEAC1.501.5024.1424.14-0.77-0.77
Middle TennesseeCUSA1.501.5051.5251.520.050.05
South CarolinaSEC1.501.5051.6151.610.050.05
USCP121.491.4938.7138.71-0.34-0.34
BryantNEC1.471.4753.3353.330.100.10
Miami FLACC1.471.4762.5062.500.370.37
UMBCAE1.471.4713.7913.79-1.06-1.06
South Dakota St.Sum0.230.2367.7467.740.080.08
Robert MorrisNEC0.180.1857.5857.580.030.03
CharlotteCUSA0.180.1843.7543.75-0.02-0.02
DenverSum0.180.1840.0040.00-0.04-0.04
NorthwesternB100.170.1746.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.170.1728.5728.57-0.07-0.07
IPFWSum0.150.1548.1548.15-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.140.1460.0060.000.030.03
New HampshireAE0.140.1458.6258.620.020.02
IowaB100.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
San DiegoWCC0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.140.1468.7568.750.050.05
Virginia TechACC0.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
DrexelCAA0.140.1437.9337.93-0.03-0.03
IUPUISum0.130.1332.2632.26-0.05-0.05
Oral RobertsSum0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
MaineAE0.130.1310.0010.00-0.10-0.10
Youngstown St.Horz0.120.1227.5927.59-0.05-0.05
LongwoodBSth0.120.1228.1228.12-0.05-0.05
DaytonA100.120.1275.7675.760.060.06
EvansvilleMVC0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
VermontAE0.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
DrakeMVC0.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
Kennesaw St.ASun0.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
Notre DameACC0.120.1285.2985.290.080.08
Alcorn St.SWAC0.120.1216.6716.67-0.08-0.08
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.120.1223.3323.33-0.06-0.06
BinghamtonAE0.120.1216.6716.67-0.08-0.08
St. BonaventureA100.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
OregonP120.120.1272.7372.730.050.05
KentuckySEC0.110.11100.00100.000.110.11
CornellIvy0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.110.1191.1891.180.090.09
Nebraska OmahaSum0.110.1139.2939.29-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.100.1037.5037.50-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
PacificWCC0.100.1032.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.100.1018.7518.75-0.06-0.06
Wright St.Horz0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
DartmouthIvy0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
HowardMEAC0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
George WashingtonA100.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
YaleIvy0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
Chicago St.WAC0.090.0917.2417.24-0.06-0.06
DetroitHorz0.090.0941.9441.94-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.090.0925.9325.93-0.04-0.04
NebraskaB100.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.090.0977.4277.420.050.05
Southern MissCUSA0.090.0925.9325.93-0.04-0.04
Ohio St.B100.090.0969.7069.700.040.04
UABCUSA0.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
IdahoBSky0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0762.9662.960.020.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.070.0716.1316.13-0.05-0.05
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.070.000.00-0.07-0.07
UtahP120.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.070.0767.6567.650.030.03
San Jose St.MWC0.070.070.000.00-0.07-0.07
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0740.7440.74-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
MichiganB100.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Southern UtahBSky0.070.0732.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Michigan St.B100.070.0767.6567.650.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0735.7135.71-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.070.0775.0075.000.030.03
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
StanfordP120.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
UCLAP120.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
IllinoisB100.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0775.0075.000.030.03
MinnesotaB100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.070.0787.8887.880.050.05
BucknellPat0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
HartfordAE0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0575.8675.860.030.03
South FloridaAmer0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
TowsonCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
ElonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UMKCWAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
ArmyPat0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Arizona St.P120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.020.02
CaliforniaP120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
ColoradoP120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Oregon St.P120.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0564.7164.710.010.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
FloridaSEC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.040.0441.1841.18-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.040.0456.6756.670.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.040.0451.5251.520.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.040.0439.2939.29-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.040.0474.2974.290.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.040.0432.2632.26-0.02-0.02
MarylandB100.040.0481.8281.820.030.03
PurdueB100.040.0463.6463.640.010.01
RutgersB100.040.0431.2531.25-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.020.026.906.90-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
NJITind0.020.0256.0056.000.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
BrownIvy0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.020.0274.0774.070.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.020.0291.1891.180.020.02
BaylorB120.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
High PointBSth0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
HoustonAmer0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.020.0248.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Texas TechB120.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
WashingtonP120.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Washington St.P120.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.020.0227.2727.27-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.020.0268.5768.570.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
SyracuseACC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
VirginiaACC0.020.0290.6290.620.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
CreightonBE0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.020.0283.3383.330.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0210.3410.34-0.02-0.02