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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.

Akron

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:43.0
Current RPI:43
Expected SOS:131
Current SOS:131
Current Record:25-6
Expected Record:25-6
Current Conf Record:16-2
Expected Conf Record:16-2
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-2
Current OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:46
Expected OOC SOS:57


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-643.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Akron.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Coastal Carolina (259.0)BSthA74-70L0%0.0
11-15Oklahoma St. (27.0)B12N69-65L0%0.0
11-16NC Asheville (217.0)BSthN63-82W100%0.0
11-18Penn St. (186.0)B10N60-85W100%0.0
12-2Middle Tennessee (28.0)SBH82-77W100%0.0
12-9Creighton (25.0)MVCA77-61L0%0.0
12-15Detroit (63.0)HorzA80-73L0%0.0
12-18Arkansas Pine Bluff (202.0)SWACH76-46W100%0.0
12-23Cleveland St. (199.0)HorzH87-57W100%0.0
12-27Texas Southern (184.0)SWACH83-68W100%0.0
12-30Princeton (124.0)IvyH62-58W100%0.0
1-2Coppin St. (313.0)MEACH91-63W100%0.0
1-9Western Michigan (128.0)MACH65-43W100%0.0
1-12Northern Illinois (333.0)MACA53-68W100%0.0
1-16Ball St. (233.0)MACH71-64W100%0.0
1-19Kent St. (131.0)MACA67-71W100%0.0
1-23Toledo (193.0)MACA56-71W100%0.0
1-26Buffalo (215.0)MACH68-64W100%0.0
1-30Bowling Green (274.0)MACA55-68W100%0.0
2-2Ohio (67.0)MACH86-72W100%0.0
2-5Central Michigan (268.0)MACH68-56W100%0.0
2-9Miami OH (258.0)MACA50-54W100%0.0
2-13Eastern Michigan (239.0)MACA62-70W100%0.0
2-16Bowling Green (274.0)MACH67-50W100%0.0
2-22North Dakota St. (72.0)SumH68-53W100%0.0
2-27Ohio (67.0)MACA81-88W100%0.0
3-2Buffalo (215.0)MACA81-67L0%0.0
3-5Miami OH (258.0)MACH72-58W100%0.0
3-8Kent St. (131.0)MACH64-68L0%0.0
3-15Kent St. (131.0)MACN62-59W100%0.0
3-16Ohio (67.0)MACN65-46W100%0.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Akron's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Akron's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Akron.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.


Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
AkronMAC26.2726.2782.2282.2216.9316.93
Kent St.MAC5.575.5762.0762.071.351.35
OhioMAC5.505.5080.0080.003.303.30
BuffaloMAC4.064.0636.6736.67-1.08-1.08
Bowling GreenMAC4.004.0039.2939.29-0.86-0.86
Miami OHMAC3.983.9828.5728.57-1.70-1.70
Eastern MichiganMAC2.302.3043.3343.33-0.31-0.31
Western MichiganMAC2.292.2963.3363.330.610.61
Central MichiganMAC2.272.2734.4834.48-0.70-0.70
Ball St.MAC2.272.2750.0050.000.000.00
ToledoMAC2.242.2455.5655.560.250.25
Northern IllinoisMAC2.222.2214.2914.29-1.58-1.58
Cleveland St.Horz1.851.8539.2939.29-0.40-0.40
DetroitHorz1.751.7558.6258.620.300.30
PrincetonIvy1.741.7461.5461.540.400.40
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC1.691.6955.1755.170.180.18
Texas SouthernSWAC1.691.6956.6756.670.230.23
NC AshevilleBSth1.671.6746.4346.43-0.12-0.12
Coastal CarolinaBSth1.671.6740.0040.00-0.33-0.33
Middle TennesseeSB1.641.6487.5087.501.231.23
Coppin St.MEAC1.611.6123.3323.33-0.86-0.86
CreightonMVC1.611.6178.7978.790.930.93
North Dakota St.Sum1.611.6173.3373.330.750.75
Oklahoma St.B121.611.6174.1974.190.780.78
Penn St.B101.611.6133.3333.33-0.54-0.54
Youngstown St.Horz0.290.2948.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.270.2751.6151.610.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.270.2762.5062.500.070.07
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.270.2746.6746.67-0.02-0.02
GramblingSWAC0.220.220.000.00-0.22-0.22
ValparaisoHorz0.210.2178.1278.120.120.12
TempleA100.210.2171.8871.880.090.09
OaklandSum0.200.2046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.190.1939.2939.29-0.04-0.04
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.190.1920.0020.00-0.11-0.11
North Carolina St.ACC0.190.1970.5970.590.080.08
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.190.1945.1645.16-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.180.1878.1278.120.100.10
MassachusettsA100.180.1865.6265.620.060.06
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.180.187.147.14-0.15-0.15
NebraskaB100.180.1845.4545.45-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.160.1629.0329.03-0.07-0.07
Western IllinoisSum0.160.1671.4371.430.070.07
Robert MorrisNEC0.150.1569.7069.700.060.06
EvansvilleMVC0.150.1554.8454.840.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.150.1548.2848.28-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.140.1417.2417.24-0.09-0.09
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
IUPUISum0.130.1313.3313.33-0.10-0.10
Alcorn St.SWAC0.130.1328.1228.12-0.06-0.06
Michigan St.B100.130.1375.0075.000.070.07
IndianaB100.130.1381.8281.820.080.08
BucknellPat0.130.1384.3884.380.090.09
Florida InternationalSB0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.130.1337.5037.50-0.03-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
OklahomaB120.120.1264.5264.520.040.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.120.1257.1457.140.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
High PointBSth0.110.1153.5753.570.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.110.1119.3519.35-0.07-0.07
YaleIvy0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.110.1128.5728.57-0.05-0.05
PurdueB100.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.110.1117.8617.86-0.07-0.07
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.110.1168.9768.970.040.04
DrexelCAA0.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
South FloridaBE0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
Chicago St.GWC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Kansas St.B120.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
St. Francis PANEC0.100.1017.2417.24-0.07-0.07
Southern IllinoisMVC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
NC WilmingtonCAA0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
WoffordSC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.100.1037.5037.50-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
DrakeMVC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
BelmontOVC0.100.1080.0080.000.060.06
LibertyBSth0.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
CornellIvy0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
PennsylvaniaIvy0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
SyracuseBE0.080.0874.2974.290.040.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
DaytonA100.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
MinnesotaB100.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.080.0858.8258.820.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
NorthwesternB100.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Washington St.P120.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
TexasB120.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
WisconsinB100.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
BaylorB120.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
XavierA100.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Florida AtlanticSB0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
TulsaCUSA0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
MemphisCUSA0.070.0788.2488.240.060.06
PortlandWCC0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
RichmondA100.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
North TexasSB0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Boston UniversityAE0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
BrownIvy0.060.0644.4444.44-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.060.0629.6329.63-0.02-0.02
HarvardIvy0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
CampbellBSth0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Virginia Military InstBSth0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0637.0437.04-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
MississippiSEC0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
CharlotteA100.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
St. John'sBE0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0557.6957.690.010.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
ProvidenceBE0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
LouisvilleBE0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
New Orleansind0.050.0518.1818.18-0.03-0.03
William & MaryCAA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
TowsonCAA0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Iowa St.B120.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
KansasB120.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Texas ChristianB120.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0514.8114.81-0.03-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
TroySB0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckySB0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
UABCUSA0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonSC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
ElonSC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
FordhamA100.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
LafayettePat0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
RiderMAAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
RutgersBE0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
ButlerA100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
DePaulBE0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCAA0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
SeattleWAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0328.0028.00-0.01-0.01
South Carolina UpstateASun0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
HawaiiBW0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Houston BaptistGWC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
OregonP120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
PittsburghBE0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Texas El PasoCUSA0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Texas St.WAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
HoustonCUSA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
IllinoisB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
KentuckySEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
La SalleA100.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
Loyola MDMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
New HampshireAE0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
PacificBW0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Southern CaliforniaP120.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Utah ValleyGWC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0393.7593.750.020.02
Portland St.BSky0.030.0323.0823.08-0.01-0.01
Texas ArlingtonWAC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
UC DavisBW0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Central FloridaCUSA0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
FloridaSEC0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
St. Mary'sWCC0.020.0281.2581.250.010.01