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Through games of Mar 4, 2015.


Akron

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:136.4
Current RPI:142
Expected SOS:148
Current SOS:148
Current Record:17-12
Expected Record:17-13
Current Conf Record:9-8
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Probability of Auto Bid:2.41%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-4
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:199
Expected OOC SOS:313



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-12121.637.34%
17-13145.362.66%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Akron.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14UMBC (343.6)AEH74-57W100%0.0
11-20USC (209.2)P12N66-46W100%0.0
11-21Miami FL (66.0)ACCN79-51L0%0.0
11-23South Carolina (95.2)SECN63-68W100%0.0
11-25Penn St. (132.1)B10A78-72L0%0.0
11-30Bryant (186.1)NECH72-66W100%0.0
12-2Arkansas Pine Bluff (306.9)SWACH81-60W100%0.0
12-4Western Illinois (329.3)SumH73-49W100%0.0
12-13Middle Tennessee (179.4)CUSAH61-62L0%0.0
12-16North Dakota St. (120.8)SumA55-46L0%0.0
12-30Marshall (289.8)CUSAH70-63W100%0.0
1-3Coppin St. (314.4)MEACH79-62W100%0.0
1-6Western Michigan (115.7)MACH72-52W100%0.0
1-9Toledo (74.4)MACA84-67L0%0.0
1-14Bowling Green (91.6)MACH67-50W100%0.0
1-17Central Michigan (71.2)MACH82-76W100%0.0
1-21Northern Illinois (192.3)MACA64-61L0%0.0
1-24Western Michigan (115.7)MACA69-71W100%0.0
1-27Ball St. (275.5)MACH59-47W100%0.0
1-31Bowling Green (91.6)MACA68-69W100%0.0
2-4Ohio (236.2)MACA83-82L0%0.0
2-7Buffalo (35.1)MACH75-72W100%0.0
2-10Kent St. (91.5)MACH61-52W100%0.0
2-14Eastern Michigan (162.2)MACA78-75L0%0.0
2-18Toledo (74.4)MACH66-68L0%0.0
2-21Miami OH (219.2)MACH52-57L0%0.0
2-24Buffalo (35.1)MACA67-62L0%0.0
2-27Ohio (236.2)MACH70-58W100%0.0
3-3Miami OH (219.2)MACA70-63L0%0.0
3-6Kent St. (91.5)MACA0-038%-3.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Akron's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Akron's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Akron.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
AkronMAC26.2526.2555.7555.883.023.09
Kent St.MAC2.584.1467.8667.860.921.48
BuffaloMAC4.164.1170.3770.531.691.69
OhioMAC4.164.1130.7731.62-1.60-1.51
Miami OHMAC4.134.0837.0437.37-1.07-1.03
Bowling GreenMAC4.124.0776.0074.042.141.96
ToledoMAC4.114.0360.7160.450.880.84
Western MichiganMAC4.134.0261.5460.880.950.88
Eastern MichiganMAC2.532.5052.0051.800.100.09
Central MichiganMAC2.522.4979.1778.251.471.41
Ball St.MAC2.502.4723.0824.07-1.34-1.28
Northern IllinoisMAC2.532.4742.3142.60-0.39-0.37
North Dakota St.Sum1.821.7965.3865.380.560.55
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC1.821.7636.6737.49-0.49-0.44
MarshallCUSA1.821.7534.6232.77-0.56-0.60
Western IllinoisSum1.791.7325.0025.00-0.89-0.86
Penn St.B101.781.7248.2847.34-0.06-0.09
Coppin St.MEAC1.761.7023.0823.72-0.95-0.89
Middle TennesseeCUSA1.761.7048.1549.11-0.07-0.03
South CarolinaSEC1.761.7050.0049.970.00-0.00
USCP121.751.6937.9337.93-0.42-0.41
BryantNEC1.721.6755.1755.170.180.17
Miami FLACC1.721.6762.0762.480.420.42
UMBCAE1.721.6713.7913.79-1.25-1.21
CharlotteCUSA0.180.1944.8346.90-0.02-0.01
DenverSum0.190.1941.3841.38-0.03-0.03
IPFWSum0.190.1850.0050.000.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.190.1867.8667.860.070.07
Cleveland St.Horz0.190.1853.5753.570.010.01
NorthwesternB100.180.1750.0048.760.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.180.1728.0029.85-0.08-0.07
Robert MorrisNEC0.170.1654.8454.840.020.02
IUPUISum0.160.1633.3333.33-0.05-0.05
DaytonA100.160.1579.3178.690.090.08
Western KentuckyCUSA0.160.1461.5458.930.040.03
LongwoodBSth0.150.1426.6726.67-0.07-0.07
EvansvilleMVC0.150.1462.0762.070.040.03
OaklandHorz0.150.1448.2848.28-0.01-0.00
New HampshireAE0.150.1460.7160.710.030.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.150.1415.3814.76-0.10-0.10
OregonP120.150.1473.3373.330.070.06
VermontAE0.140.1458.6258.620.020.02
DrexelCAA0.150.1439.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Virginia TechACC0.120.1433.3333.08-0.04-0.05
Nebraska OmahaSum0.130.1339.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.130.1353.5753.570.010.01
South DakotaSum0.130.1348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.100.1227.5927.59-0.04-0.05
MaineAE0.120.1210.0010.00-0.10-0.09
DrakeMVC0.130.1227.5927.59-0.06-0.05
IowaB100.120.1266.6767.370.040.04
Southern MissCUSA0.130.1226.9226.01-0.06-0.06
Wright St.Horz0.120.1231.0331.03-0.05-0.04
San DiegoWCC0.120.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.1126.6726.67-0.04-0.05
HowardMEAC0.120.1146.4346.43-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.1125.0024.21-0.05-0.06
Chicago St.WAC0.120.1118.5217.90-0.08-0.07
DetroitHorz0.120.1143.3343.33-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.090.1140.7440.32-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.120.11100.0099.900.120.11
St. BonaventureA100.120.1157.1458.000.020.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.090.1124.0024.96-0.05-0.06
George WashingtonA100.120.1163.3363.730.030.03
UTEPCUSA0.090.1167.8669.260.030.04
CornellIvy0.120.1144.4444.55-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.120.1116.6716.67-0.08-0.07
Ohio St.B100.120.1173.3372.570.050.05
WisconsinB100.120.1189.6688.010.090.08
PacificWCC0.100.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.100.0942.8642.76-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.0923.3323.33-0.03-0.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.090.0950.0050.330.000.00
MichiganB100.090.0946.4347.82-0.01-0.00
DePaulBE0.090.0940.0039.63-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.0924.1423.68-0.05-0.05
Notre DameACC0.090.0983.3383.560.060.06
McNeese St.Slnd0.090.0937.5039.77-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.090.0960.8761.600.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.0925.9327.43-0.04-0.04
UtahP120.090.0977.7878.830.050.05
BelmontOVC0.090.0964.2964.290.030.02
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0978.5779.290.040.05
DartmouthIvy0.090.0846.1547.13-0.01-0.00
NebraskaB100.090.0844.8344.45-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.090.0875.8676.590.050.04
UABCUSA0.090.0853.5754.420.010.01
Michigan St.B100.090.0866.6766.280.030.03
IllinoisB100.090.0863.3362.470.020.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.090.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.090.0816.1316.13-0.06-0.06
YaleIvy0.060.0870.3768.760.020.03
Arkansas St.SB0.090.0838.4639.08-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.090.0876.6775.470.050.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.090.080.000.74-0.09-0.08
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0820.0020.58-0.04-0.05
Southern UtahBSky0.090.0830.7731.71-0.03-0.03
StanfordP120.090.0864.2961.970.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0837.9338.79-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.060.0857.1456.730.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.090.0853.5754.710.010.01
BucknellPat0.090.0856.6756.670.010.01
DukeACC0.090.0890.0088.620.070.06
SouthernSWAC0.090.0844.4443.51-0.01-0.01
IdahoBSky0.070.0644.0044.89-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0628.5729.92-0.03-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0642.8643.44-0.00-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0657.1457.240.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.060.0627.5928.43-0.03-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0660.7160.320.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0656.6757.730.010.01
TowsonCAA0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.060.0655.1754.370.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0637.0437.15-0.02-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0679.3178.180.020.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0665.5265.870.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0642.8645.04-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
San Jose St.MWC0.060.060.000.13-0.06-0.06
TennesseeSEC0.030.0651.7251.650.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0662.9662.960.020.01
AuburnSEC0.060.0637.9337.47-0.02-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.060.0646.1544.40-0.00-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0660.7159.690.010.01
RiceCUSA0.060.0632.0031.14-0.02-0.02
UTSACUSA0.060.0644.0045.86-0.01-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0682.1482.140.040.04
ClemsonACC0.060.0655.1753.660.010.00
FloridaSEC0.060.0650.0048.490.00-0.00
AlbanyAE0.060.0673.3373.330.030.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0642.8642.02-0.00-0.01
ArmyPat0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.060.0658.6255.600.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
ColoradoP120.060.0646.4346.74-0.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
HartfordAE0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.030.0680.0078.510.020.03
LibertyBSth0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0657.1457.140.000.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.02
Oregon St.P120.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0633.3333.33-0.01-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0623.0823.57-0.02-0.03
UCLAP120.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.060.0639.2940.13-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0655.5655.060.010.01
WagnerNEC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.060.0560.0059.680.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.060.0525.9327.35-0.03-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.060.0550.0050.000.000.00
MarylandB100.060.0583.3382.790.040.04
Northern KentuckyASun0.060.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.060.0533.3332.69-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.060.0572.4172.060.030.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0534.4836.60-0.02-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0542.8645.17-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0558.6260.320.010.01
MemphisAmer0.030.0358.6256.740.010.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0328.5730.86-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.030.0359.2659.260.010.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.030.0357.6958.440.000.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0321.4321.45-0.02-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.030.0322.2222.12-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.030.0360.0060.880.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.033.574.55-0.03-0.03
HofstraCAA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0376.9277.700.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0375.8676.590.020.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0328.5728.70-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0346.1544.67-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.030.0372.4173.240.010.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0372.4172.040.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.030.0370.0068.640.010.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0366.6766.650.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0337.9338.93-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0327.5927.73-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.030.0325.9325.08-0.02-0.01
North FloridaASun0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0368.9768.960.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0358.6257.790.010.00
West VirginiaB120.030.0373.3373.200.010.01
ArizonaP120.030.0389.6689.950.020.02
Arizona St.P120.030.0351.7252.550.000.00
BrownIvy0.030.0340.7438.89-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0325.9325.33-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0370.0070.120.010.01
CreightonBE0.030.0343.3342.97-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.030.0375.0075.320.010.01
LehighPat0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0385.7185.710.020.02
New MexicoMWC0.030.0348.2848.71-0.00-0.00
NJITind0.030.0356.0056.000.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.030.0350.0049.000.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.030.0360.7160.060.010.01
WashingtonP120.030.0353.5752.290.000.00
Washington St.P120.030.0342.8641.43-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.030.0337.0436.25-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.030.0329.6329.22-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
IndianaB100.030.0363.3362.750.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0370.0069.450.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0360.0060.240.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.030.0370.0069.390.010.01
PurdueB100.030.0363.3363.340.010.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0360.0059.110.010.00
VirginiaACC0.030.0396.5595.350.030.02
Wake ForestACC0.030.0343.3343.11-0.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0326.9225.63-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0337.0437.87-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0358.6258.810.000.00
High PointBSth0.030.0370.3770.370.010.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0337.9338.64-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.030.0343.3342.03-0.00-0.00