live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Mar 11, 2018.

Akron

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:227.0
Current RPI:227
Expected SOS:153
Current SOS:153
Current Record:13-18
Expected Record:13-18
Current Conf Record:7-13
Expected Conf Record:7-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-2
Current OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:245
Expected OOC SOS:299


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-18227.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Akron.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Cleveland St. (282.0)HorzH67-57W100%0.0
11-18Tennessee Martin (306.0)OVCH76-59W100%0.0
11-25Dayton (146.0)A10A73-60L0%0.0
11-28Chattanooga (304.0)SCH75-70W100%0.0
12-2Marshall (87.0)CUSAA86-64L0%0.0
12-6Fort Wayne (209.0)SumH83-79W100%0.0
12-9Appalachian St. (250.0)SBH94-89W100%0.0
12-16Mississippi Valley St. (349.0)SWACH81-63W100%0.0
12-22USC (34.0)P12N84-53L0%0.0
12-23Princeton (226.0)IvyN62-64L0%0.0
12-25Davidson (47.0)A10N91-78L0%0.0
1-2Western Michigan (177.0)MACA87-75L0%0.0
1-5Toledo (75.0)MACA67-65L0%0.0
1-9Buffalo (25.0)MACH65-87L0%0.0
1-13Bowling Green (193.0)MACH80-78W100%0.0
1-16Eastern Michigan (116.0)MACA63-49L0%0.0
1-20Northern Illinois (241.0)MACH82-67W100%0.0
1-23Ohio (204.0)MACH71-68W100%0.0
1-27Ball St. (126.0)MACA111-106L0%0.0
1-30Miami OH (159.0)MACA79-64L0%0.0
2-3Toledo (75.0)MACH56-77L0%0.0
2-6Ohio (204.0)MACA99-75L0%0.0
2-10Central Michigan (167.0)MACH69-63W100%0.0
2-13Ball St. (126.0)MACH77-90L0%0.0
2-17Kent St. (154.0)MACA78-68L0%0.0
2-20Bowling Green (193.0)MACA79-81W100%0.0
2-24Miami OH (159.0)MACH62-64L0%0.0
2-27Buffalo (25.0)MACA80-68L0%0.0
3-2Kent St. (154.0)MACH67-65W100%0.0
3-5Western Michigan (177.0)MACA78-79W100%0.0
3-8Eastern Michigan (116.0)MACN67-58L0%0.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Akron's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Akron's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Akron.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.


Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
AkronMAC26.2726.2737.6037.60-6.52-6.52
ToledoMAC4.174.1764.5264.521.211.21
Kent St.MAC4.164.1648.3948.39-0.13-0.13
Miami OHMAC4.144.1441.3841.38-0.71-0.71
BuffaloMAC4.114.1174.1974.191.991.99
OhioMAC4.084.0842.8642.86-0.58-0.58
Eastern MichiganMAC4.054.0555.5655.560.450.45
Western MichiganMAC4.054.0550.0050.000.000.00
Ball St.MAC4.034.0355.1755.170.420.42
Bowling GreenMAC4.014.0150.0050.000.000.00
Central MichiganMAC2.552.5555.1755.170.260.26
Northern IllinoisMAC2.502.5037.9337.93-0.60-0.60
MarshallCUSA1.771.7768.7568.750.660.66
Cleveland St.Horz1.761.7633.3333.33-0.59-0.59
DaytonA101.741.7443.3343.33-0.23-0.23
Appalachian St.SB1.691.6943.3343.33-0.23-0.23
ChattanoogaSC1.671.6726.6726.67-0.78-0.78
DavidsonA101.661.6664.5264.520.480.48
Fort WayneSum1.661.6651.8551.850.060.06
Tennessee MartinOVC1.661.6628.5728.57-0.71-0.71
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC1.661.6612.9012.90-1.23-1.23
USCP121.641.6466.6766.670.550.55
PrincetonIvy1.641.6440.7440.74-0.30-0.30
OaklandHorz0.310.3157.5857.580.050.05
Wright St.Horz0.220.2271.8871.880.100.10
DetroitHorz0.180.1820.0020.00-0.11-0.11
Jackson St.SWAC0.180.1833.3333.33-0.06-0.06
PennIvy0.160.1674.1974.190.080.08
Arkansas St.SB0.160.1630.0030.00-0.06-0.06
Saint LouisA100.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
SyracuseACC0.150.1560.6160.610.030.03
St. BonaventureA100.150.1578.1278.120.080.08
UABCUSA0.150.1558.0658.060.020.02
VCUA100.130.1354.5554.550.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.130.1362.5062.500.030.03
Old DominionCUSA0.130.1378.1278.120.070.07
FordhamA100.130.1329.0329.03-0.05-0.05
Green BayHorz0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.130.1378.1278.120.070.07
Western KentuckyCUSA0.130.1369.7069.700.050.05
OregonP120.120.1264.7164.710.040.04
Oregon St.P120.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.120.1220.0020.00-0.07-0.07
South DakotaSum0.110.1173.3373.330.050.05
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.110.1130.0030.00-0.04-0.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Austin PeayOVC0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
North FloridaASun0.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
CornellIvy0.110.1140.7440.74-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.110.1180.0080.000.060.06
Indiana St.MVC0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.110.1145.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.100.109.689.68-0.08-0.08
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.100.1076.6776.670.050.05
ValparaisoMVC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.100.1017.8617.86-0.06-0.06
IUPUIHorz0.100.1032.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.1044.1244.12-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.080.0831.2531.25-0.03-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.080.083.333.33-0.08-0.08
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0822.2222.22-0.04-0.04
Georgia St.SB0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
Little RockSB0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
Ohio St.B100.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0815.6215.62-0.05-0.05
MassachusettsA100.080.0839.3939.39-0.02-0.02
VMISC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
RichmondA100.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
OklahomaB120.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0784.3884.380.050.05
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
XavierBE0.070.0784.8584.850.050.05
UtahP120.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0788.2488.240.060.06
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.070.0768.9768.970.030.03
BrownIvy0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0626.9226.92-0.03-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.060.0623.0823.08-0.03-0.03
DenverSum0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
YaleIvy0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.060.0682.7682.760.040.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
HawaiiBW0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0544.4444.44-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
DrexelCAA0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
IdahoBSky0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
IonaMAAC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
MarylandB100.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
TulsaAmer0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
IllinoisB100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
BucknellPat0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
FurmanSC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
HartfordAE0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
MercerSC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
MissouriSEC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Notre DameACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
WoffordSC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
AlbanyAE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
DelawareCAA0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
NJITASun0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
ArizonaP120.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
CaliforniaP120.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
StanfordP120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
UCLAP120.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
ButlerBE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.036.676.67-0.02-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
LafayettePat0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Miami FLACC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
LSUSEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
MichiganB100.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
Montana St.BSky0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
HofstraCAA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
WagnerNEC0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
WyomingMWC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
NevadaMWC0.030.0379.4179.410.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0371.4371.430.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.030.0393.9493.940.020.02
FIUCUSA0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
Arizona St.P120.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
RutgersB100.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Washington St.P120.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01