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Through games of Jan 20, 2017.


Akron

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:46.6
Current RPI:43
Expected SOS:143
Current SOS:165
Current Record:15-3
Expected Record:24-7
Current Conf Record:6-0
Expected Conf Record:15-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-2
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:40
Expected OOC SOS:141



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
28-322.30.56%
27-425.53.68%
26-529.811.09%
25-635.420.48%
24-742.623.84%
23-852.020.23%
22-963.712.46%
21-1077.85.57%
20-1194.21.63%
19-12112.30.40%
18-13124.50.04%
17-14149.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Akron.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Youngstown St. (258.9)HorzA90-82L0%0.0
11-17American (291.9)PatH72-62W100%0.0
11-20Radford (201.4)BSthH88-41W100%0.0
11-22Georgia Southern (100.6)SBH75-67W100%0.0
11-25Air Force (222.8)MWCN75-84W100%0.0
11-26Mercer (191.2)SCN65-63W100%0.0
12-3Creighton (13.3)BEA82-70L0%0.0
12-7Coppin St. (327.7)MEACH87-63W100%0.0
12-10Gonzaga (6.3)WCCA61-43L0%0.0
12-17Marshall (90.9)CUSAH99-88W100%0.0
12-21UC Irvine (136.4)BWN80-88W100%0.0
12-22Maryland Eastern Shore (302.8)MEACN60-76W100%0.0
1-3Bowling Green (257.3)MACH89-84W100%0.0
1-6Western Michigan (209.5)MACH66-59W100%0.0
1-10Central Michigan (192.0)MACA85-89W100%0.0
1-14Miami OH (282.8)MACA70-74W100%0.0
1-17Ohio (99.5)MACH83-68W100%0.0
1-20Eastern Michigan (84.3)MACH70-63W100%0.0
1-21Eastern Michigan (84.3)MACH0-068%5.2
1-24Western Michigan (209.5)MACA0-067%4.9
1-28Buffalo (163.1)MACH0-079%9.0
1-31Northern Illinois (184.8)MACA0-061%3.2
2-4Ohio (99.5)MACA0-043%-2.1
2-7Ball St. (202.6)MACH0-081%9.6
2-11Eastern Michigan (84.3)MACA0-046%-1.0
2-14Toledo (133.4)MACH0-075%7.4
2-18Kent St. (219.8)MACH0-079%8.9
2-21Bowling Green (257.3)MACA0-075%7.6
2-25Buffalo (163.1)MACA0-060%2.8
2-28Miami OH (282.8)MACH0-091%15.1
3-3Kent St. (219.8)MACA0-060%2.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Akron's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Akron's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Akron.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
AkronMAC26.4726.3787.1479.6719.6715.65
Eastern MichiganMAC3.135.5057.1459.890.451.09
OhioMAC3.034.0871.4370.541.301.68
BuffaloMAC0.344.0337.5046.04-0.08-0.32
Kent St.MAC0.183.9847.0649.35-0.01-0.05
Bowling GreenMAC2.873.9837.5036.76-0.72-1.05
Miami OHMAC2.783.9840.0036.78-0.56-1.05
Western MichiganMAC2.963.9533.3338.40-0.99-0.92
ToledoMAC0.492.5052.9453.820.030.19
Ball St.MAC0.332.4864.7157.370.100.37
Central MichiganMAC2.872.4560.0053.660.570.18
Northern IllinoisMAC0.342.4560.0054.000.070.20
Coppin St.MEAC2.781.7223.5326.52-1.47-0.81
MarshallCUSA2.871.7058.8262.140.510.41
Georgia SouthernSB2.941.6766.6762.240.980.41
MercerSC2.951.6735.2944.60-0.87-0.18
AmericanPat2.941.6729.4131.83-1.21-0.61
CreightonBE2.781.6794.1284.202.451.14
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.851.6713.3335.03-2.09-0.50
RadfordBSth2.941.6743.7546.48-0.37-0.12
Youngstown St.Horz2.851.6733.3331.22-0.95-0.63
Air ForceMWC2.781.6143.7538.91-0.35-0.36
GonzagaWCC2.781.61100.0097.232.781.52
UC IrvineBW2.781.6155.5662.320.310.40
DetroitHorz0.250.2216.6723.07-0.16-0.12
Cleveland St.Horz0.180.2226.3232.63-0.08-0.08
Green BayHorz0.400.1952.9450.950.020.00
Wright St.Horz0.160.1961.1156.230.040.02
IUPUISum0.180.1738.8943.16-0.04-0.02
PittsburghACC0.170.1763.1651.610.040.01
OaklandHorz0.170.1672.2274.630.070.08
Gardner WebbBSth0.170.1441.1849.23-0.03-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.270.1431.5833.34-0.10-0.05
Long Beach St.BW0.170.1426.3236.97-0.08-0.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.240.1426.3228.81-0.11-0.06
NevadaMWC0.150.1484.2178.680.110.08
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.1437.5044.55-0.02-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.070.1426.3227.72-0.03-0.06
UTEPCUSA0.250.1418.7524.05-0.15-0.07
VillanovaBE0.240.1494.7489.270.220.11
South DakotaSum0.160.1455.0054.820.020.01
LongwoodBSth0.160.1125.0023.83-0.08-0.06
Western KentuckyCUSA0.090.1147.3745.06-0.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.240.1111.7621.45-0.18-0.06
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.170.1188.8986.040.130.08
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.1112.5024.37-0.06-0.06
Boise St.MWC0.090.1162.5063.120.020.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.250.1112.5019.98-0.18-0.07
HowardMEAC0.240.1112.5028.49-0.18-0.05
Northern KentuckyHorz0.160.1155.5656.000.020.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.160.1160.0072.810.030.05
ValparaisoHorz0.150.1177.7877.270.080.06
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.1118.7535.73-0.05-0.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.170.116.2511.88-0.15-0.08
Grambling St.SWAC0.090.1125.0029.54-0.04-0.04
San Jose St.MWC0.160.1146.6738.45-0.01-0.03
WoffordSC0.080.1131.2540.50-0.03-0.02
XavierBE0.080.1172.2267.680.030.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.080.1183.3383.150.050.07
Nebraska OmahaSum0.090.0952.6353.100.000.01
SMUAmer0.090.0980.0077.810.060.05
SyracuseACC0.090.0957.8952.520.010.00
VermontAE0.090.0975.0077.360.050.05
BryantNEC0.170.0921.0533.56-0.10-0.03
WinthropBSth0.170.0975.0075.420.080.04
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0833.3335.90-0.00-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0852.9451.110.000.00
VMISC0.160.0813.3315.24-0.12-0.06
ArmyPat0.160.0838.8942.65-0.04-0.01
BYUWCC0.080.0870.0068.710.030.03
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0860.0061.270.010.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.080.0843.7543.71-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0826.6740.16-0.00-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.160.0825.0028.40-0.08-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.160.080.0014.44-0.16-0.06
PepperdineWCC0.160.0822.2221.17-0.09-0.05
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0835.0039.76-0.02-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.080.0858.8264.380.010.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.0825.0031.85-0.04-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.160.0843.7541.41-0.02-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0814.2929.27-0.06-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.090.0866.6762.870.030.02
UCFAmer0.170.0877.7867.020.100.03
WashingtonP120.160.0850.0043.390.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.160.0826.6727.53-0.08-0.04
Cal PolyBW0.070.0818.7527.05-0.05-0.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0837.5044.22-0.00-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.150.0875.0074.870.080.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.150.0870.5973.700.060.04
Loyola MDPat0.150.0847.0646.22-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.150.0836.8435.66-0.04-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.150.0888.8987.310.120.06
Santa ClaraWCC0.150.0847.3745.83-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.150.0843.7543.98-0.02-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0823.5321.80-0.04-0.05
GeorgetownBE0.080.0852.6348.210.00-0.00
George MasonA100.080.0864.7156.510.020.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0811.1122.97-0.06-0.04
UC DavisBW0.080.0852.9454.710.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.160.0888.8986.560.120.06
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0844.4443.57-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.160.0838.8939.92-0.04-0.02
CampbellBSth0.000.0643.7542.60-0.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0620.0030.55-0.05-0.02
ElonCAA0.080.0650.0051.340.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.090.0661.1147.020.02-0.00
High PointBSth0.000.0637.5042.27-0.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.090.0660.0063.140.020.02
LibertyBSth0.080.0647.0651.38-0.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.080.0612.5013.05-0.06-0.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.090.0662.5063.260.020.02
SouthernSWAC0.090.0637.5051.21-0.020.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.080.0661.1169.300.020.02
MinnesotaB100.090.0678.9570.150.050.02
StetsonASun0.160.0629.4130.28-0.07-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0628.5731.47-0.00-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.090.0622.2227.15-0.05-0.03
Boston UniversityPat0.080.0650.0053.030.000.00
BucknellPat0.080.0670.0071.890.030.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.090.0621.0528.89-0.05-0.02
ClemsonACC0.150.0661.1159.230.030.01
ColgatePat0.080.0621.0527.27-0.04-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.170.0652.9450.600.010.00
DelawareCAA0.090.0633.3330.90-0.03-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0617.6529.60-0.00-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.160.0647.3741.50-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.150.0677.7874.930.090.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.170.0664.7169.850.050.02
Fort WayneSum0.090.0664.7166.910.030.02
Fresno St.MWC0.080.0658.8254.690.010.01
FurmanSC0.080.0652.9458.360.000.01
Georgia St.SB0.090.0653.3355.990.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.0650.0051.660.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.150.0652.9450.590.010.00
James MadisonCAA0.090.0626.3229.57-0.04-0.02
LafayettePat0.080.0629.4123.71-0.03-0.03
LehighPat0.080.0652.9463.420.000.01
Little RockSB0.090.0656.2551.110.010.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.090.0662.5062.710.020.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.080.0647.0644.32-0.00-0.01
MissouriSEC0.090.0629.4125.93-0.04-0.03
NavyPat0.000.0644.4446.61-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.080.0664.7160.050.020.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0650.0043.680.00-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0663.1660.550.020.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0633.3328.99-0.00-0.02
TroySB0.090.0647.0648.13-0.01-0.00
UCLAP120.090.0695.0089.690.080.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0670.5964.080.030.02
UNLVMWC0.000.0647.3743.68-0.00-0.01
WyomingMWC0.080.0664.7157.710.020.01
MaineAE0.000.0620.0020.95-0.00-0.03
Weber St.BSky0.000.0650.0061.630.000.01
ArizonaP120.150.0589.4784.510.120.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.090.0564.7169.700.030.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.150.0588.2484.520.120.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.160.0568.4252.190.060.00
Ohio St.B100.150.0563.1658.020.040.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.0552.9455.050.010.01
ButlerBE0.080.0584.2178.340.050.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.070.0537.5037.69-0.02-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0543.7543.70-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0531.5832.58-0.03-0.02
HawaiiBW0.070.0543.7546.21-0.01-0.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0566.6761.530.000.01
Murray St.OVC0.080.0550.0055.770.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0561.1162.280.020.01
ProvidenceBE0.080.0565.0055.280.020.01
Seton HallBE0.080.0566.6758.230.030.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.150.0531.5833.41-0.05-0.02
St. John'sBE0.080.0545.0038.54-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.080.0561.1164.320.020.02
UC RiversideBW0.000.0521.4330.89-0.00-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.070.0513.3327.07-0.05-0.02
DePaulBE0.000.0542.1130.39-0.00-0.02
NJITASun0.000.0538.8942.49-0.00-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0563.1659.530.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0516.6713.65-0.00-0.04
TexasB120.000.0538.8935.38-0.00-0.02
IdahoBSky0.000.0340.0044.98-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.080.0384.2180.600.060.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0335.2928.97-0.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.080.0361.1155.580.020.00
West VirginiaB120.080.0383.3380.700.050.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0317.6524.51-0.06-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0364.7165.930.000.01
AuburnSEC0.080.0366.6755.390.030.00
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0347.3734.50-0.00-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.090.0316.6718.29-0.06-0.02
ColoradoP120.080.0350.0052.890.000.00
DavidsonA100.080.0352.9453.560.000.00
DenverSum0.080.0357.8955.950.010.00
George WashingtonA100.090.0352.6348.070.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.080.0361.1163.070.020.01
HofstraCAA0.080.0342.1143.49-0.01-0.00
IllinoisB100.090.0361.1153.360.020.00
Iowa St.B120.080.0364.7161.830.020.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0327.7832.97-0.03-0.01
La SalleA100.080.0368.7564.060.030.01
MarylandB100.080.0388.8973.830.060.01
MichiganB100.090.0363.1658.150.020.00
Michigan St.B100.070.0363.1657.700.020.00
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0363.1659.600.020.01
Montana St.BSky0.090.0333.3340.46-0.03-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0340.0050.05-0.020.00
New HampshireAE0.080.0356.2558.170.010.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0357.8958.030.000.00
PortlandWCC0.000.0347.0640.46-0.00-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.080.0342.1141.75-0.01-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.080.0335.2944.13-0.02-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.080.0347.0648.42-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0352.9451.020.000.00
Texas St.SB0.000.0353.3345.980.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.090.0362.5058.830.020.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0368.7570.270.000.01
UtahP120.080.0368.7567.640.030.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.080.0340.0044.67-0.02-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.090.0377.7862.530.050.01
WagnerNEC0.080.0337.5047.61-0.02-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.090.0378.9582.980.050.02
William & MaryCAA0.090.0346.6747.54-0.01-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.0364.7157.700.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0318.7527.90-0.00-0.01
Arizona St.P120.080.0347.3744.51-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.000.0336.8433.55-0.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.070.0368.4264.450.030.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0320.0026.44-0.05-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0331.2545.45-0.03-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0361.1159.670.000.01
MississippiSEC0.080.0361.1155.030.020.00
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0335.2941.48-0.02-0.00
NebraskaB100.080.0347.0641.67-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.000.0323.5331.23-0.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0325.0029.15-0.00-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0322.2229.94-0.04-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0358.8264.790.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0347.0646.29-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0327.7824.32-0.00-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0325.0022.32-0.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0311.7618.03-0.00-0.02
UTSACUSA0.000.0343.7538.29-0.00-0.01
Washington St.P120.080.0347.0633.39-0.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.080.0383.3381.320.050.02