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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Akron

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:58.0
Current RPI:58
Expected SOS:155
Current SOS:155
Current Record:25-8
Expected Record:25-8
Current Conf Record:16-5
Expected Conf Record:16-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:16-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-3
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:62
Expected OOC SOS:207



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-858.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Akron.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Youngstown St. (251.0)HorzA90-82L0%0.0
11-17American (310.0)PatH72-62W100%0.0
11-20Radford (227.0)BSthH88-41W100%0.0
11-22Georgia Southern (121.0)SBH75-67W100%0.0
11-25Air Force (250.0)MWCN75-84W100%0.0
11-26Mercer (192.0)SCN65-63W100%0.0
12-3Creighton (26.0)BEA82-70L0%0.0
12-7Coppin St. (336.0)MEACH87-63W100%0.0
12-10Gonzaga (8.0)WCCA61-43L0%0.0
12-17Marshall (112.0)CUSAH99-88W100%0.0
12-21UC Irvine (135.0)BWN80-88W100%0.0
12-22Maryland Eastern Shore (278.0)MEACN60-76W100%0.0
1-3Bowling Green (225.0)MACH89-84W100%0.0
1-6Western Michigan (173.0)MACH66-59W100%0.0
1-10Central Michigan (216.0)MACA85-89W100%0.0
1-14Miami OH (302.0)MACA70-74W100%0.0
1-17Ohio (117.0)MACH83-68W100%0.0
1-20Eastern Michigan (174.0)MACH70-63W100%0.0
1-24Western Michigan (173.0)MACA80-90W100%0.0
1-28Buffalo (146.0)MACH91-90W100%0.0
1-31Northern Illinois (241.0)MACA73-76W100%0.0
2-4Ohio (117.0)MACA85-70L0%0.0
2-7Ball St. (169.0)MACH65-63W100%0.0
2-10Eastern Michigan (174.0)MACA76-87W100%0.0
2-14Toledo (155.0)MACH71-65W100%0.0
2-17Kent St. (142.0)MACH67-70L0%0.0
2-21Bowling Green (225.0)MACA66-65L0%0.0
2-24Buffalo (146.0)MACA83-89W100%0.0
2-28Miami OH (302.0)MACH75-79L0%0.0
3-3Kent St. (142.0)MACA56-66W100%0.0
3-9Eastern Michigan (174.0)MACN79-62W100%0.0
3-10Ball St. (169.0)MACN74-70W100%0.0
3-11Kent St. (142.0)MACN65-70L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Akron's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Akron's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Akron.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
AkronMAC26.3926.3977.1877.1814.3514.35
Kent St.MAC5.375.3761.2961.291.211.21
Eastern MichiganMAC5.235.2346.1546.15-0.40-0.40
OhioMAC3.953.9564.2964.291.131.13
BuffaloMAC3.903.9053.5753.570.280.28
Ball St.MAC3.883.8866.6766.671.291.29
Western MichiganMAC3.853.8551.7251.720.130.13
Miami OHMAC3.813.8128.5728.57-1.63-1.63
Bowling GreenMAC3.813.8137.9337.93-0.92-0.92
ToledoMAC2.502.5051.6151.610.080.08
Northern IllinoisMAC2.432.4342.8642.86-0.35-0.35
Central MichiganMAC2.402.4048.2848.28-0.08-0.08
Coppin St.MEAC1.641.6424.1424.14-0.85-0.85
MarshallCUSA1.591.5957.5857.580.240.24
CreightonBE1.571.5771.8871.880.680.68
Georgia SouthernSB1.571.5755.1755.170.160.16
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC1.571.5738.7138.71-0.35-0.35
MercerSC1.571.5744.8344.83-0.16-0.16
RadfordBSth1.571.5741.3841.38-0.27-0.27
Youngstown St.Horz1.561.5632.2632.26-0.55-0.55
AmericanPat1.561.5627.5927.59-0.70-0.70
Air ForceMWC1.521.5233.3333.33-0.51-0.51
GonzagaWCC1.521.5296.8896.881.421.42
UC IrvineBW1.521.5259.3859.380.280.28
Cleveland St.Horz0.240.2426.6726.67-0.11-0.11
DetroitHorz0.200.2023.3323.33-0.11-0.11
Wright St.Horz0.190.1960.0060.000.040.04
IUPUISum0.180.1840.0040.00-0.04-0.04
Green BayHorz0.170.1755.1755.170.020.02
OaklandHorz0.170.1773.3373.330.080.08
PittsburghACC0.150.1548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.150.1540.6240.62-0.03-0.03
VillanovaBE0.140.1491.1891.180.120.12
NiagaraMAAC0.140.1430.3030.30-0.06-0.06
South DakotaSum0.140.1464.5264.520.040.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
HowardMEAC0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Morgan St.MEAC0.120.1244.8344.83-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.120.1282.3582.350.080.08
Northern KentuckyHorz0.120.1268.7568.750.050.05
LongwoodBSth0.120.1214.2914.29-0.09-0.09
MilwaukeeHorz0.120.1229.4129.41-0.05-0.05
ValparaisoHorz0.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
XavierBE0.120.1261.7661.760.030.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.120.1273.3373.330.060.06
UTEPCUSA0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.110.1187.8887.880.090.09
ArmyPat0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.1017.8617.86-0.06-0.06
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
HamptonMEAC0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.100.1084.3884.380.070.07
Alabama A&MSWAC0.100.106.906.90-0.08-0.08
Boise St.MWC0.100.1062.0762.070.020.02
San Jose St.MWC0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.100.1017.2417.24-0.06-0.06
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.103.333.33-0.09-0.09
Western KentuckyCUSA0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
George MasonA100.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
PacificWCC0.090.0931.2531.25-0.03-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.090.0987.5087.500.070.07
Santa ClaraWCC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.090.0921.8821.88-0.05-0.05
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
SMUAmer0.080.0888.2488.240.060.06
SyracuseACC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
VermontAE0.080.0884.8584.850.050.05
CampbellBSth0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
TroySB0.080.0858.8258.820.010.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
St. BonaventureA100.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
VMISC0.080.0814.2914.29-0.05-0.05
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0823.0823.08-0.04-0.04
WinthropBSth0.080.0880.0080.000.050.05
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0740.7440.74-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
UCFAmer0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0758.6258.620.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
EvansvilleMVC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.070.0735.7135.71-0.02-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
UMKCWAC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
BYUWCC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
UC RiversideBW0.070.0722.2222.22-0.04-0.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0767.7467.740.020.02
NJITASun0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Oregon St.P120.070.0712.9012.90-0.05-0.05
TexasB120.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
ElonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
MinnesotaB100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
BucknellPat0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
ColgatePat0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
Fort WayneSum0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
FurmanSC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
High PointBSth0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0564.7164.710.010.01
LafayettePat0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
LehighPat0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Little RockSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
MaineAE0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
NavyPat0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
SamfordSC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Weber St.BSky0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UCLAP120.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
UNLVMWC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
AlabamaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
BradleyMVC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
Ohio St.B100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
ArizonaP120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
ButlerBE0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
DePaulBE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
PortlandWCC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0518.5218.52-0.03-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.040.0441.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.040.0428.5728.57-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
IdahoBSky0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
DavidsonA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
MarylandB100.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
New HampshireAE0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Texas St.SB0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
UtahP120.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
WagnerNEC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
West VirginiaB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
ColoradoP120.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
DenverSum0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
MichiganB100.020.0268.5768.570.010.01
Michigan St.B100.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
Arizona St.P120.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
Iowa St.B120.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
MississippiSEC0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
NebraskaB100.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01