Akron

Conference:	MAC
Expected RPI:	55.0
Current RPI:	55
Expected SOS:	81
Current SOS:	81
Current Record:	21-11
Expected Record:	21-11
Current Conf Record:	14-4
Expected Conf Record:	14-4
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	11-0
Current OOC Record:	7-7
Expected OOC Record:	7-7
Expected OOC RPI:	92
Expected OOC SOS:	39

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
21-11	55.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Akron.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Mississippi St. (75.0)	SEC	A	58-68	W	100%
11-18	Valparaiso (95.0)	Horz	A	62-59	L	0%
11-19	Duquesne (109.0)	A10	N	76-81	L	0%
11-26	Detroit (126.0)	Horz	H	81-63	W	100%
11-28	West Virginia (57.0)	BE	A	77-56	L	0%
12-4	Middle Tennessee (56.0)	SB	A	77-53	L	0%
12-10	Cleveland St. (85.0)	Horz	A	69-66	L	0%
12-15	Arkansas Pine Bluff (302.0)	SWAC	H	87-64	W	100%
12-17	Florida A&M (316.0)	MEAC	H	91-69	W	100%
12-19	Youngstown St. (170.0)	Horz	H	88-62	W	100%
12-21	North Carolina A&T (289.0)	MEAC	H	79-52	W	100%
12-29	Virginia Commonwealth (38.0)	CAA	H	75-76	L	0%
1-1	Marshall (43.0)	CUSA	A	51-67	W	100%
1-7	Miami OH (247.0)	MAC	A	60-65	W	100%
1-11	Bowling Green (158.0)	MAC	A	55-56	W	100%
1-14	Ohio (47.0)	MAC	H	68-63	W	100%
1-18	Buffalo (78.0)	MAC	A	82-70	L	0%
1-21	Kent St. (106.0)	MAC	H	84-75	W	100%
1-24	Ball St. (256.0)	MAC	A	58-70	W	100%
1-28	Central Michigan (280.0)	MAC	A	64-74	W	100%
2-1	Toledo (246.0)	MAC	H	86-72	W	100%
2-4	Eastern Michigan (243.0)	MAC	H	77-47	W	100%
2-8	Western Michigan (205.0)	MAC	A	66-69	W	100%
2-11	Northern Illinois (334.0)	MAC	H	75-51	W	100%
2-15	Miami OH (247.0)	MAC	H	74-59	W	100%
2-18	Oral Roberts (51.0)	Sum	A	67-61	L	0%
2-22	Bowling Green (158.0)	MAC	H	79-68	W	100%
2-26	Ohio (47.0)	MAC	A	85-61	L	0%
2-29	Buffalo (78.0)	MAC	H	70-74	L	0%
3-2	Kent St. (106.0)	MAC	A	55-61	W	100%
3-9	Kent St. (106.0)	MAC	N	78-74	W	100%
3-10	Ohio (47.0)	MAC	N	63-64	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Akron's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Akron's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Akron.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Akron	MAC	26.26	26.26	68.31	68.31	9.62	9.62
Ohio	MAC	5.45	5.45	80.00	80.00	3.27	3.27
Kent St.	MAC	5.38	5.38	71.43	71.43	2.31	2.31
Bowling Green	MAC	3.89	3.89	53.57	53.57	0.28	0.28
Buffalo	MAC	3.88	3.88	61.54	61.54	0.90	0.90
Miami OH	MAC	3.81	3.81	29.63	29.63	-1.55	-1.55
Toledo	MAC	2.33	2.33	51.61	51.61	0.08	0.08
Western Michigan	MAC	2.31	2.31	40.62	40.62	-0.43	-0.43
Central Michigan	MAC	2.20	2.20	33.33	33.33	-0.73	-0.73
Northern Illinois	MAC	2.20	2.20	14.29	14.29	-1.57	-1.57
Ball St.	MAC	2.17	2.17	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	2.15	2.15	43.33	43.33	-0.29	-0.29
Detroit	Horz	1.89	1.89	62.50	62.50	0.47	0.47
Valparaiso	Horz	1.84	1.84	63.33	63.33	0.49	0.49
Cleveland St.	Horz	1.84	1.84	66.67	66.67	0.61	0.61
Youngstown St.	Horz	1.81	1.81	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
West Virginia	BE	1.71	1.71	58.06	58.06	0.28	0.28
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	1.68	1.68	32.14	32.14	-0.60	-0.60
Duquesne	A10	1.66	1.66	48.28	48.28	-0.06	-0.06
Marshall	CUSA	1.66	1.66	62.50	62.50	0.41	0.41
Florida A&M	MEAC	1.64	1.64	26.67	26.67	-0.77	-0.77
Mississippi St.	SEC	1.61	1.61	67.74	67.74	0.57	0.57
Oral Roberts	Sum	1.61	1.61	81.25	81.25	1.01	1.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	1.59	1.59	34.38	34.38	-0.50	-0.50
Middle Tennessee	SB	1.56	1.56	79.31	79.31	0.92	0.92
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	1.56	1.56	81.82	81.82	0.99	0.99
Wright St.	Horz	0.35	0.35	38.71	38.71	-0.08	-0.08
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.30	0.30	25.00	25.00	-0.15	-0.15
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.28	0.28	46.43	46.43	-0.02	-0.02
Butler	Horz	0.25	0.25	57.58	57.58	0.04	0.04
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.25	0.25	58.06	58.06	0.04	0.04
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.25	0.25	20.69	20.69	-0.15	-0.15
Temple	A10	0.21	0.21	77.42	77.42	0.11	0.11
Arkansas St.	SB	0.20	0.20	39.39	39.39	-0.04	-0.04
Morehead St.	OVC	0.18	0.18	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Austin Peay	OVC	0.18	0.18	35.48	35.48	-0.05	-0.05
UAB	CUSA	0.17	0.17	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.17	0.17	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.16	0.16	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Belmont	ASun	0.15	0.15	78.79	78.79	0.09	0.09
IUPUI	Sum	0.15	0.15	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Florida International	SB	0.15	0.15	28.57	28.57	-0.06	-0.06
Western Kentucky	SB	0.15	0.15	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.15	0.15	70.59	70.59	0.06	0.06
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.15	0.15	6.90	6.90	-0.13	-0.13
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.15	0.15	25.00	25.00	-0.07	-0.07
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.13	0.13	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.13	0.13	16.13	16.13	-0.09	-0.09
Howard	MEAC	0.13	0.13	30.00	30.00	-0.05	-0.05
Troy	SB	0.13	0.13	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.13	0.13	70.59	70.59	0.05	0.05
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.13	0.13	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.13	0.13	78.12	78.12	0.07	0.07
Cincinnati	BE	0.13	0.13	70.59	70.59	0.05	0.05
George Washington	A10	0.12	0.12	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.12	0.12	31.03	31.03	-0.05	-0.05
James Madison	CAA	0.12	0.12	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.12	0.12	34.48	34.48	-0.04	-0.04
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.11	0.11	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.10	0.10	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.10	0.10	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	10.34	10.34	-0.08	-0.08
Xavier	A10	0.10	0.10	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Arizona	P12	0.10	0.10	67.65	67.65	0.04	0.04
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	75.00	75.00	0.05	0.05
Georgia	SEC	0.10	0.10	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.10	0.10	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Utah St.	WAC	0.10	0.10	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
William & Mary	CAA	0.10	0.10	16.13	16.13	-0.07	-0.07
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.10	0.10	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
South Florida	BE	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.10	0.10	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.10	0.10	29.63	29.63	-0.04	-0.04
Alabama	SEC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Louisville	BE	0.10	0.10	74.29	74.29	0.05	0.05
George Mason	CAA	0.09	0.09	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.09	0.09	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.09	0.09	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.09	0.09	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.08	0.08	60.71	60.71	0.02	0.02
Evansville	MVC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.08	0.08	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
Chicago St.	GWC	0.08	0.08	10.71	10.71	-0.06	-0.06
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Michigan St.	B10	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.08	0.08	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
South Alabama	SB	0.08	0.08	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Purdue	B10	0.08	0.08	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.08	0.08	74.19	74.19	0.04	0.04
DePaul	BE	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.07	0.07	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Mississippi	SEC	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Pittsburgh	BE	0.07	0.07	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Central Florida	CUSA	0.07	0.07	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Syracuse	BE	0.07	0.07	93.94	93.94	0.06	0.06
Southern	SWAC	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Notre Dame	BE	0.07	0.07	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Drexel	CAA	0.07	0.07	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Hofstra	CAA	0.07	0.07	31.25	31.25	-0.03	-0.03
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.07	0.07	6.67	6.67	-0.06	-0.06
Lamar	Slnd	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Memphis	CUSA	0.07	0.07	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.07	0.07	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
NC Asheville	BSth	0.07	0.07	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.07	0.07	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Portland	WCC	0.07	0.07	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.07	0.07	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Western Illinois	Sum	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Brigham Young	WCC	0.06	0.06	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Canisius	MAAC	0.06	0.06	16.67	16.67	-0.04	-0.04
Cornell	Ivy	0.06	0.06	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.06	0.06	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.05	0.05	32.00	32.00	-0.02	-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.05	0.05	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Houston	CUSA	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.05	10.71	10.71	-0.04	-0.04
North Texas	SB	0.05	0.05	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Providence	BE	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Air Force	MWC	0.05	0.05	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	19.23	19.23	-0.03	-0.03
East Carolina	CUSA	0.05	0.05	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Grambling	SWAC	0.05	0.05	14.29	14.29	-0.03	-0.03
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.05	0.05	28.00	28.00	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Utah	Sum	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Tulsa	CUSA	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Georgia St.	CAA	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Old Dominion	CAA	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.05	3.12	3.12	-0.04	-0.04
Boise St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Campbell	BSth	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Creighton	MVC	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Hawaii	WAC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Samford	SC	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
St. Mary's	WCC	0.03	0.03	83.33	83.33	0.02	0.02
UC Riverside	BW	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Utah Valley	GWC	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Denver	SB	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.03	0.03	25.93	25.93	-0.01	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
UCLA	P12	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Boston University	AE	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Colgate	Pat	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Georgia Southern	SC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Pepperdine	WCC	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Radford	BSth	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.03	0.03	21.43	21.43	-0.01	-0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Florida	SEC	0.02	0.02	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Georgetown	BE	0.02	0.02	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.02	0.02	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.02	0.02	94.12	94.12	0.02	0.02
Marquette	BE	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.02	0.02	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.02	0.02	60.00	60.00	0.00	0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M	B12	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.02	0.02	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Texas St.	Slnd	0.02	0.02	34.62	34.62	-0.01	-0.01
Villanova	BE	0.02	0.02	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Colorado	P12	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Duke	ACC	0.02	0.02	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
High Point	BSth	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan	B10	0.02	0.02	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.02	0.02	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.02	0.02	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.02	0.02	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.02	0.02	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Winthrop	BSth	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00