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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Akron

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:93.0
Current RPI:93
Expected SOS:137
Current SOS:137
Current Record:21-12
Expected Record:21-12
Current Conf Record:13-7
Expected Conf Record:13-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-1
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:120
Expected OOC SOS:176



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-1293.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Akron.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Coastal Carolina (196.0)BSthH72-63W100%0.0
11-12Saint Mary's (61.0)WCCA85-63L0%0.0
11-16Middle Tennessee (64.0)CUSAA80-73L0%0.0
12-7Cleveland St. (91.0)HorzA61-73W100%0.0
12-14Bethune Cookman (343.0)MEACH84-56W100%0.0
12-16Oral Roberts (191.0)SlndH74-64W100%0.0
12-18Detroit (230.0)HorzH79-60W100%0.0
12-22Oregon St. (100.0)P12N83-71W100%0.0
12-23Iowa St. (7.0)B12N60-83L0%0.0
12-25South Carolina (140.0)SECN69-59L0%0.0
12-28South Carolina (140.0)SECA78-45L0%0.0
12-31Coppin St. (261.0)MEACH77-66W100%0.0
1-2Marshall (276.0)CUSAH59-58W100%0.0
1-8Ball St. (309.0)MACA68-72W100%0.0
1-12Ohio (87.0)MACA80-83W100%0.0
1-15Miami OH (161.0)MACH59-52W100%0.0
1-18Toledo (38.0)MACH61-75L0%0.0
1-22Eastern Michigan (86.0)MACA68-78W100%0.0
1-25Central Michigan (294.0)MACA74-82W100%0.0
1-29Ball St. (309.0)MACH73-46W100%0.0
2-1Kent St. (213.0)MACA60-57L0%0.0
2-5Eastern Michigan (86.0)MACH52-48W100%0.0
2-9Bowling Green (194.0)MACA63-65W100%0.0
2-12Western Michigan (66.0)MACA57-54L0%0.0
2-15Northern Illinois (217.0)MACH62-54W100%0.0
2-19Buffalo (106.0)MACA96-90L0%0.0
2-22Ohio (87.0)MACH50-66L0%0.0
2-26Miami OH (161.0)MACA65-61L0%0.0
3-1Bowling Green (194.0)MACH57-47W100%0.0
3-4Buffalo (106.0)MACH83-71W100%0.0
3-7Kent St. (213.0)MACH58-54W100%0.0
3-13Ohio (87.0)MACN83-77W100%0.0
3-14Western Michigan (66.0)MACN64-60L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Akron's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Akron's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Akron.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
AkronMAC26.3526.3564.5464.547.667.66
OhioMAC5.355.3570.0070.002.142.14
Miami OHMAC3.893.8942.8642.86-0.56-0.56
Eastern MichiganMAC3.863.8660.0060.000.770.77
Bowling GreenMAC3.853.8537.9337.93-0.93-0.93
Kent St.MAC3.833.8348.2848.28-0.13-0.13
BuffaloMAC3.823.8265.3865.381.171.17
Western MichiganMAC3.803.8068.9768.971.441.44
Ball St.MAC3.793.7911.5411.54-2.92-2.92
South CarolinaSEC3.083.0837.5037.50-0.77-0.77
ToledoMAC2.502.5080.6580.651.531.53
Northern IllinoisMAC2.432.4346.6746.67-0.16-0.16
Central MichiganMAC2.332.3328.5728.57-1.00-1.00
Cleveland St.Horz1.741.7465.5265.520.540.54
DetroitHorz1.691.6937.9337.93-0.41-0.41
Bethune CookmanMEAC1.591.5917.2417.24-1.04-1.04
Coppin St.MEAC1.591.5936.6736.67-0.42-0.42
MarshallCUSA1.581.5830.0030.00-0.63-0.63
Oral RobertsSlnd1.561.5646.4346.43-0.11-0.11
Saint Mary'sWCC1.561.5664.5264.520.450.45
Iowa St.B121.541.5478.1278.120.870.87
Middle TennesseeCUSA1.541.5470.0070.000.620.62
Oregon St.P121.541.5453.3353.330.100.10
Coastal CarolinaBSth1.521.5262.0762.070.370.37
OaklandHorz0.270.2735.4835.48-0.08-0.08
Wright St.Horz0.230.2356.2556.250.030.03
ValparaisoHorz0.220.2250.0050.000.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.190.1925.0025.00-0.10-0.10
MassachusettsA100.190.1975.0075.000.100.10
Youngstown St.Horz0.180.1841.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.170.1748.3948.39-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.160.1646.6746.67-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.150.1560.6160.610.030.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.150.1561.7661.760.040.04
Green BayHorz0.150.1577.7877.780.080.08
Texas A&MSEC0.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
BaylorB120.140.1466.6766.670.050.05
MississippiSEC0.140.1457.5857.580.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.140.1414.2914.29-0.10-0.10
Delaware St.MEAC0.130.1325.0025.00-0.06-0.06
PresbyterianBSth0.120.1213.3313.33-0.09-0.09
Tennessee St.OVC0.120.1213.7913.79-0.09-0.09
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
EvansvilleMVC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.120.1248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.120.1246.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.120.1242.8642.86-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.120.1270.5970.590.050.05
FloridaSEC0.110.1194.1294.120.100.10
Southern IllinoisMVC0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.100.1021.2121.21-0.06-0.06
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.100.1053.5753.570.010.01
UICHorz0.100.1013.7913.79-0.07-0.07
TulsaCUSA0.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
Arizona St.P120.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
IPFWSum0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
South FloridaAmer0.100.1037.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
XavierBE0.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
ManhattanMAAC0.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.100.1017.8617.86-0.06-0.06
Old DominionCUSA0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.100.1062.0762.070.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.100.1081.8281.820.060.06
Kansas St.B120.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
MissouriSEC0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
USC UpstateASun0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
RichmondA100.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
KansasB120.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
Northern IowaMVC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.090.0963.6463.640.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
DrexelCAA0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
UtahP120.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.080.0893.1093.100.070.07
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
WinthropBSth0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Saint LouisA100.070.0780.6580.650.050.05
WisconsinB100.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0725.8125.81-0.04-0.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0783.8783.870.050.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0730.3030.30-0.03-0.03
UMKCWAC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
OregonP120.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0780.6580.650.040.04
UABCUSA0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
Western KentuckySB0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0778.5778.570.040.04
PortlandWCC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
George MasonA100.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
BYUWCC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
ClemsonACC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MercerASun0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
Ohio St.B100.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
BinghamtonAE0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
ButlerBE0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0524.0024.00-0.03-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0514.8114.81-0.04-0.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Notre DameACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
VMIBSth0.050.0555.5655.560.010.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
North FloridaASun0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
ArizonaP120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
BucknellPat0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
CaliforniaP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.050.053.703.70-0.05-0.05
East CarolinaCUSA0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
North DakotaBSky0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.050.0570.3770.370.020.02
RiceCUSA0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
TempleAmer0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
TulaneCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UCLAP120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
USCP120.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
UTSACUSA0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
WashingtonP120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Washington St.P120.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0559.2659.260.010.01
MichiganB100.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
OklahomaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
TCUB120.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Texas TechB120.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.040.0438.7138.71-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.040.0459.3859.380.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.040.0442.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
CampbellBSth0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
IonaMAAC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
RadfordBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
StetsonASun0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
ColoradoP120.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.020.0238.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.020.0246.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
MarylandACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
NebraskaB100.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0248.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
StanfordP120.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.020.0261.2961.290.010.01