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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Akron

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:74.5
Current RPI:85
Expected SOS:138
Current SOS:228
Current Record:5-1
Expected Record:20-9
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-2
Current OOC Record:5-1
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:72
Expected OOC SOS:161



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-217.00.01%
26-320.50.17%
25-426.21.04%
24-532.33.48%
23-640.78.40%
22-750.014.17%
21-861.418.52%
20-974.618.77%
19-1088.915.91%
18-11105.010.28%
17-12122.35.71%
16-13141.42.40%
15-14160.90.78%
14-15183.80.28%
13-16196.60.07%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Akron.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Youngstown St. (237.6)HorzA90-82L0%0.0
11-17American (262.3)PatH72-62W100%0.0
11-20Radford (250.4)BSthH88-41W100%0.0
11-22Georgia Southern (167.0)SBH75-67W100%0.0
11-25Air Force (197.4)MWCN75-84W100%0.0
11-26Mercer (163.6)SCN65-63W100%0.0
12-3Creighton (25.4)BEA0-013%-13.3
12-7Coppin St. (342.9)MEACH0-099%28.1
12-10Gonzaga (10.2)WCCA0-09%-15.8
12-17Marshall (88.7)CUSAH0-073%7.3
12-21UC Irvine (155.6)BWN0-068%5.6
1-3Bowling Green (217.3)MACH0-083%11.4
1-6Western Michigan (212.4)MACH0-084%11.8
1-10Central Michigan (157.8)MACA0-060%3.2
1-14Miami OH (271.3)MACA0-078%9.4
1-17Ohio (94.7)MACH0-067%5.2
1-21Eastern Michigan (101.7)MACH0-069%5.9
1-24Western Michigan (212.4)MACA0-068%5.6
1-28Buffalo (138.0)MACH0-077%8.9
1-31Northern Illinois (209.4)MACA0-064%4.4
2-4Ohio (94.7)MACA0-047%-1.0
2-7Ball St. (212.5)MACH0-081%10.6
2-11Eastern Michigan (101.7)MACA0-049%-0.3
2-14Toledo (153.9)MACH0-078%9.4
2-18Kent St. (205.9)MACH0-079%9.7
2-21Bowling Green (217.3)MACA0-067%5.2
2-25Buffalo (138.0)MACA0-059%2.8
2-28Miami OH (271.3)MACH0-090%15.6
3-3Kent St. (205.9)MACA0-061%3.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Akron's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Akron's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Akron.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
AkronMAC29.0726.2886.3671.4321.1411.27
OhioMAC0.004.3180.0070.250.001.75
BuffaloMAC0.004.2840.0052.32-0.000.20
Kent St.MAC0.004.2350.0053.390.000.29
Bowling GreenMAC0.004.2233.3344.97-0.00-0.42
Miami OHMAC0.004.2250.0034.300.00-1.33
Western MichiganMAC0.004.1716.6737.37-0.00-1.05
Eastern MichiganMAC0.004.1650.0057.040.000.59
ToledoMAC0.602.6242.8651.34-0.090.07
Ball St.MAC0.002.5950.0053.480.000.18
Central MichiganMAC0.002.5666.6756.950.000.36
Northern IllinoisMAC0.002.5642.8645.65-0.00-0.22
MarshallCUSA0.001.8183.3360.720.000.39
Coppin St.MEAC0.001.810.0018.83-0.00-1.13
Georgia SouthernSB9.721.7860.0047.031.94-0.11
MercerSC9.721.7860.0054.941.940.18
CreightonBE0.001.78100.0076.310.000.94
RadfordBSth9.721.7840.0037.66-1.94-0.44
Youngstown St.Horz8.331.7833.3335.37-2.78-0.52
AmericanPat8.331.7520.0036.93-5.00-0.46
Air ForceMWC8.331.7260.0044.231.67-0.20
GonzagaWCC0.001.72100.0091.070.001.42
UC IrvineBW0.001.7250.0055.500.000.19
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.2416.6730.27-0.00-0.09
DetroitHorz0.000.210.0019.51-0.00-0.13
Green BayHorz0.000.2133.3348.71-0.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.2171.4355.750.000.02
OaklandHorz0.000.1883.3378.430.000.10
IUPUISum0.000.1528.5747.72-0.00-0.01
PittsburghACC0.000.1585.7155.550.000.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.1533.3333.15-0.00-0.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1514.2928.66-0.00-0.06
NevadaMWC0.000.1575.0070.470.000.06
NiagaraMAAC0.000.1516.6727.03-0.00-0.07
VillanovaBE0.000.15100.0083.120.000.10
South DakotaSum0.000.1457.1447.220.00-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.1320.0048.38-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.120.0039.35-0.00-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.000.1225.0024.66-0.00-0.06
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.1242.8634.17-0.00-0.04
FIUCUSA0.600.1216.6733.69-0.40-0.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1283.3377.170.000.06
Boise St.MWC0.000.1250.0058.980.000.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.1250.0052.140.000.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1285.7174.430.000.06
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.120.0013.30-0.00-0.09
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.1228.5734.18-0.00-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.1216.6737.09-0.00-0.03
San Jose St.MWC0.000.1240.0037.44-0.00-0.03
WoffordSC0.000.120.0033.58-0.00-0.04
XavierBE0.000.12100.0074.800.000.06
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.1185.7173.010.000.05
WinthropBSth0.000.0960.0070.500.000.04
BryantNEC0.000.0928.5750.20-0.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0933.3346.81-0.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0933.3335.92-0.00-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0916.6743.29-0.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0950.0050.290.000.00
VMISC0.690.090.0021.15-0.69-0.05
ArmyPat0.000.0933.3345.58-0.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.600.0933.3341.52-0.20-0.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0928.5739.44-0.00-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0983.3380.700.000.05
Florida A&MMEAC1.390.090.0023.46-1.39-0.05
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0920.0032.60-0.00-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.600.0925.0039.28-0.30-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.600.0983.3361.150.400.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.0966.6770.740.000.04
UC DavisBW0.000.0957.1448.410.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.0950.0053.560.000.01
Western IllinoisSum0.690.090.0022.69-0.69-0.05
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0966.6769.810.000.03
Loyola MDPat0.000.0933.3340.49-0.00-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0975.0074.990.000.04
UTEPCUSA0.000.0925.0043.26-0.00-0.01
WashingtonP120.000.0957.1452.630.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0916.6718.96-0.00-0.05
BYUWCC0.000.0971.4368.660.000.03
George MasonA100.000.0957.1442.940.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0950.0047.560.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.090.0038.35-0.00-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.000.0950.0035.230.00-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.09100.0089.040.000.07
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0937.5036.24-0.00-0.02
PacificWCC0.000.0950.0049.010.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0985.7180.960.000.05
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0933.3340.39-0.00-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.090.0024.77-0.00-0.04
UMKCWAC0.000.0971.4356.050.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0633.3348.73-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.000.0657.1469.300.000.02
SyracuseACC0.000.0666.6770.140.000.03
VermontAE0.000.0662.5071.630.000.03
CampbellBSth0.000.0625.0033.54-0.00-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0625.0038.72-0.00-0.01
ElonCAA0.000.0683.3358.030.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0666.6739.720.00-0.01
High PointBSth0.000.0650.0051.260.000.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0660.0070.140.000.02
LibertyBSth0.000.0640.0050.71-0.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0633.3327.13-0.00-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0058.600.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.0625.0056.92-0.000.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0650.0064.840.000.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0685.7165.670.000.02
StetsonASun1.390.0628.5728.26-0.60-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0620.0036.00-0.00-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0640.0041.65-0.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0616.6731.91-0.00-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0650.0053.530.000.00
BucknellPat0.000.0675.0067.660.000.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0616.6730.02-0.00-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0614.2929.15-0.00-0.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0666.6753.460.000.00
ColgatePat0.000.0620.0041.31-0.00-0.01
DelawareCAA0.000.0640.0040.65-0.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer1.390.0675.0047.510.69-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0650.0071.330.000.03
Fort WayneSum0.000.0666.6770.930.000.02
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0660.0039.610.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.000.0620.0049.38-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0660.0067.410.000.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.060.0034.18-0.00-0.02
HawaiiBW0.000.0650.0050.940.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.0642.8647.69-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.000.060.0038.26-0.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun1.290.0657.1459.480.180.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.060.0028.15-0.00-0.03
LafayettePat0.000.0633.3331.87-0.00-0.02
LehighPat0.000.0633.3367.01-0.000.02
Little RockSB0.000.0660.0057.900.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0666.6761.340.000.01
MaineAE0.000.0616.6725.61-0.00-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.060.0034.23-0.00-0.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0650.0045.920.00-0.00
NavyPat0.000.0628.5743.62-0.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.690.0671.4368.100.300.02
SamfordSC0.000.0657.1455.810.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.690.060.0024.19-0.69-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0027.77-0.00-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0614.2937.52-0.00-0.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0640.0027.05-0.00-0.03
TroySB0.000.0633.3332.23-0.00-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.000.060.0033.43-0.00-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.060.0033.44-0.00-0.02
UCFAmer0.000.0683.3374.620.000.03
UCLAP120.000.06100.0083.550.000.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0666.6758.420.000.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0671.4349.590.00-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.0620.0054.94-0.000.01
WyomingMWC0.000.0660.0048.590.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.000.0685.7170.990.000.02
FloridaSEC0.690.0687.5075.320.520.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0666.6775.370.000.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.690.0671.4350.570.300.00
Ohio St.B100.000.0685.7172.660.000.03
ButlerBE0.000.06100.0075.690.000.03
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0666.6751.090.000.00
DePaulBE0.000.0680.0035.960.00-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0642.8646.78-0.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0633.3345.60-0.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0671.4363.090.000.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.0642.8661.90-0.000.01
NJITASun0.000.0642.8650.32-0.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.000.0657.1448.240.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0666.6765.810.000.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0628.5723.76-0.00-0.03
PortlandWCC0.000.0660.0057.170.000.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.0671.4356.280.000.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0628.5727.50-0.00-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0683.3350.740.000.00
Seton HallBE0.000.0671.4354.520.000.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0628.5733.92-0.00-0.02
TexasB120.000.0650.0036.240.00-0.02
UABCUSA0.000.0657.1461.940.000.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0340.0050.88-0.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.0385.7180.010.000.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0366.6732.240.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.690.0371.4352.370.300.00
West VirginiaB120.000.0383.3380.550.000.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.030.0024.25-0.00-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0385.7168.390.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0383.3355.200.000.00
CaliforniaP120.000.0383.3363.610.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0017.30-0.00-0.02
ColoradoP120.000.0371.4359.850.000.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0383.3361.490.000.01
DavidsonA100.690.0383.3368.880.460.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0316.6736.35-0.00-0.01
DenverSum0.000.0333.3341.11-0.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0350.0056.260.000.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0357.1440.550.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.0357.1442.660.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0328.5730.29-0.00-0.01
La SalleA100.000.0360.0051.780.000.00
MarylandB100.690.0385.7156.490.500.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0350.0061.590.000.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0375.0064.960.000.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.0350.0062.460.000.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0312.5048.98-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.000.0350.0057.480.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0371.4358.670.000.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0024.32-0.00-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.690.0340.0043.86-0.14-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.690.0366.6766.100.230.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0350.0043.310.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0357.1464.940.000.01
UtahP120.000.0375.0061.040.000.01
WagnerNEC0.690.0333.3353.85-0.230.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0340.0055.44-0.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.0366.6756.020.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0314.2934.56-0.00-0.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0357.1436.050.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0350.0029.280.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0320.0034.39-0.00-0.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0371.4368.970.000.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.030.0042.55-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0340.0067.95-0.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0366.6754.420.000.00
MississippiSEC0.000.0371.4346.010.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0320.0041.93-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.000.0350.0043.610.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.000.0314.2931.71-0.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0340.0030.80-0.00-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.030.0019.30-0.00-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0316.6734.31-0.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0385.7169.010.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0350.0046.780.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0333.3326.75-0.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0350.0056.430.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0333.3323.33-0.00-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0023.26-0.00-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.0325.0034.47-0.00-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0360.0058.950.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0328.5728.46-0.00-0.01
Washington St.P120.000.0350.0036.820.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.0375.0073.840.000.01