live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Bracket Busters - Blog


Through games of Mar 11, 2012.


Akron

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:55.0
Current RPI:55
Expected SOS:81
Current SOS:81
Current Record:21-11
Expected Record:21-11
Current Conf Record:14-4
Expected Conf Record:14-4
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-0
Current OOC Record:7-7
Expected OOC Record:7-7
Expected OOC RPI:92
Expected OOC SOS:39



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-1155.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Akron.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Mississippi St. (75.0)SECA58-68W100%0.0
11-18Valparaiso (95.0)HorzA62-59L0%0.0
11-19Duquesne (109.0)A10N76-81L0%0.0
11-26Detroit (126.0)HorzH81-63W100%0.0
11-28West Virginia (57.0)BEA77-56L0%0.0
12-4Middle Tennessee (56.0)SBA77-53L0%0.0
12-10Cleveland St. (85.0)HorzA69-66L0%0.0
12-15Arkansas Pine Bluff (302.0)SWACH87-64W100%0.0
12-17Florida A&M (316.0)MEACH91-69W100%0.0
12-19Youngstown St. (170.0)HorzH88-62W100%0.0
12-21North Carolina A&T (289.0)MEACH79-52W100%0.0
12-29Virginia Commonwealth (38.0)CAAH75-76L0%0.0
1-1Marshall (43.0)CUSAA51-67W100%0.0
1-7Miami OH (247.0)MACA60-65W100%0.0
1-11Bowling Green (158.0)MACA55-56W100%0.0
1-14Ohio (47.0)MACH68-63W100%0.0
1-18Buffalo (78.0)MACA82-70L0%0.0
1-21Kent St. (106.0)MACH84-75W100%0.0
1-24Ball St. (256.0)MACA58-70W100%0.0
1-28Central Michigan (280.0)MACA64-74W100%0.0
2-1Toledo (246.0)MACH86-72W100%0.0
2-4Eastern Michigan (243.0)MACH77-47W100%0.0
2-8Western Michigan (205.0)MACA66-69W100%0.0
2-11Northern Illinois (334.0)MACH75-51W100%0.0
2-15Miami OH (247.0)MACH74-59W100%0.0
2-18Oral Roberts (51.0)SumA67-61L0%0.0
2-22Bowling Green (158.0)MACH79-68W100%0.0
2-26Ohio (47.0)MACA85-61L0%0.0
2-29Buffalo (78.0)MACH70-74L0%0.0
3-2Kent St. (106.0)MACA55-61W100%0.0
3-9Kent St. (106.0)MACN78-74W100%0.0
3-10Ohio (47.0)MACN63-64L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Akron's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Akron's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Akron.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
AkronMAC26.2626.2668.3168.319.629.62
OhioMAC5.455.4580.0080.003.273.27
Kent St.MAC5.385.3871.4371.432.312.31
Bowling GreenMAC3.893.8953.5753.570.280.28
BuffaloMAC3.883.8861.5461.540.900.90
Miami OHMAC3.813.8129.6329.63-1.55-1.55
ToledoMAC2.332.3351.6151.610.080.08
Western MichiganMAC2.312.3140.6240.62-0.43-0.43
Central MichiganMAC2.202.2033.3333.33-0.73-0.73
Northern IllinoisMAC2.202.2014.2914.29-1.57-1.57
Ball St.MAC2.172.1750.0050.000.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC2.152.1543.3343.33-0.29-0.29
DetroitHorz1.891.8962.5062.500.470.47
ValparaisoHorz1.841.8463.3363.330.490.49
Cleveland St.Horz1.841.8466.6766.670.610.61
Youngstown St.Horz1.811.8150.0050.000.000.00
West VirginiaBE1.711.7158.0658.060.280.28
North Carolina A&TMEAC1.681.6832.1432.14-0.60-0.60
DuquesneA101.661.6648.2848.28-0.06-0.06
MarshallCUSA1.661.6662.5062.500.410.41
Florida A&MMEAC1.641.6426.6726.67-0.77-0.77
Mississippi St.SEC1.611.6167.7467.740.570.57
Oral RobertsSum1.611.6181.2581.251.011.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC1.591.5934.3834.38-0.50-0.50
Middle TennesseeSB1.561.5679.3179.310.920.92
Virginia CommonwealthCAA1.561.5681.8281.820.990.99
Wright St.Horz0.350.3538.7138.71-0.08-0.08
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.300.3025.0025.00-0.15-0.15
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.280.2846.4346.43-0.02-0.02
ButlerHorz0.250.2557.5857.580.040.04
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.250.2558.0658.060.040.04
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.250.2520.6920.69-0.15-0.15
TempleA100.210.2177.4277.420.110.11
Arkansas St.SB0.200.2039.3939.39-0.04-0.04
Morehead St.OVC0.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.180.1835.4835.48-0.05-0.05
UABCUSA0.170.1748.3948.39-0.01-0.01
OaklandSum0.170.1751.6151.610.010.01
DaytonA100.160.1662.5062.500.040.04
BelmontASun0.150.1578.7978.790.090.09
IUPUISum0.150.1540.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Florida InternationalSB0.150.1528.5728.57-0.06-0.06
Western KentuckySB0.150.1545.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.150.1570.5970.590.060.06
Tennessee MartinOVC0.150.156.906.90-0.13-0.13
Alcorn St.SWAC0.150.1525.0025.00-0.07-0.07
St. BonaventureA100.130.1364.5264.520.040.04
St. Peter'sMAAC0.130.1316.1316.13-0.09-0.09
HowardMEAC0.130.1330.0030.00-0.05-0.05
TroySB0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
VanderbiltSEC0.130.1370.5970.590.050.05
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.130.1378.1278.120.070.07
CincinnatiBE0.130.1370.5970.590.050.05
George WashingtonA100.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.120.1231.0331.03-0.05-0.05
James MadisonCAA0.120.1237.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.120.1234.4834.48-0.04-0.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.100.1046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.100.1010.3410.34-0.08-0.08
XavierA100.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
ArizonaP120.100.1067.6567.650.040.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
GeorgiaSEC0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Utah St.WAC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.100.1016.1316.13-0.07-0.07
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
South FloridaBE0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
AuburnSEC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.100.1029.6329.63-0.04-0.04
AlabamaSEC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
LouisvilleBE0.100.1074.2974.290.050.05
George MasonCAA0.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
Southern MethodistCUSA0.090.0936.6736.67-0.03-0.03
NC WilmingtonCAA0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.090.0958.0658.060.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Ohio St.B100.080.0879.4179.410.050.05
Chicago St.GWC0.080.0810.7110.71-0.06-0.06
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0848.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
Florida AtlanticSB0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
NC GreensboroSC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Texas San AntonioSlnd0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
College of CharlestonSC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Texas ArlingtonSlnd0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
DePaulBE0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
PittsburghBE0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
Central FloridaCUSA0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
SyracuseBE0.070.0793.9493.940.060.06
SouthernSWAC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Notre DameBE0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
DrexelCAA0.070.0781.8281.820.050.05
HofstraCAA0.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.076.676.67-0.06-0.06
LamarSlnd0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
MemphisCUSA0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
NC AshevilleBSth0.070.0770.0070.000.030.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0753.5753.570.010.01
PortlandWCC0.070.0720.0020.00-0.04-0.04
Southern MississippiCUSA0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Brigham YoungWCC0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0616.6716.67-0.04-0.04
CornellIvy0.060.0640.7440.74-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0532.0032.00-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
MassachusettsA100.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
St. LouisA100.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
CharlotteA100.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
HoustonCUSA0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
North TexasSB0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
RichmondA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
RiceCUSA0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
BaylorB120.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
ConnecticutBE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Louisiana St.SEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
RutgersBE0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0519.2319.23-0.03-0.03
East CarolinaCUSA0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
GramblingSWAC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
IonaMAAC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.050.0528.0028.00-0.02-0.02
Southern UtahSum0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Texas El PasoCUSA0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
TulsaCUSA0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Georgia St.CAA0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCAA0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
TowsonCAA0.050.053.123.12-0.04-0.04
Boise St.MWC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
CreightonMVC0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
HawaiiWAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
SamfordSC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
St. Mary'sWCC0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
UC RiversideBW0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Utah ValleyGWC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
DenverSB0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
FordhamA100.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistGWC0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
UCLAP120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Boston UniversityAE0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
ColgatePat0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Georgia SouthernSC0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
NebraskaB100.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
Kansas St.B120.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
KentuckySEC0.020.0294.1294.120.020.02
MarquetteBE0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
Miami FLACC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
South Carolina UpstateASun0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Texas A&MB120.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Texas St.Slnd0.020.0234.6234.62-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
DukeACC0.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
High PointBSth0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
OklahomaB120.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
TulaneCUSA0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00