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Through games of Feb 12, 2016.


Akron

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:32.3
Current RPI:41
Expected SOS:132
Current SOS:169
Current Record:19-4
Expected Record:24-6
Current Conf Record:9-2
Expected Conf Record:14-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:12-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-0
Current OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC RPI:52
Expected OOC SOS:240



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-420.113.97%
25-525.433.35%
24-633.431.09%
23-745.416.03%
22-858.74.95%
21-970.40.51%
20-1082.00.09%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Akron.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Cleveland St. (273.0)HorzN65-53W100%0.0
11-18Arkansas (106.1)SECA80-88W100%0.0
11-22Villanova (3.4)BEA75-56L0%0.0
11-24Green Bay (155.8)HorzA66-63L0%0.0
11-27Charleston Southern (274.0)BSthH82-58W100%0.0
12-2Coppin St. (327.8)MEACH77-71W100%0.0
12-4Marshall (125.5)CUSAA65-75W100%0.0
12-12Bethune Cookman (300.8)MEACH81-60W100%0.0
12-21UC Santa Barbara (116.4)BWN70-84W100%0.0
12-23Iona (122.4)MAACN78-64W100%0.0
12-30South Carolina St. (208.4)MEACH78-68W100%0.0
1-2Lipscomb (267.3)ASunH80-73W100%0.0
1-5Buffalo (104.3)MACA71-75W100%0.0
1-8Western Michigan (218.5)MACH62-53W100%0.0
1-12Central Michigan (143.0)MACA92-81L0%0.0
1-15Toledo (141.8)MACA78-64L0%0.0
1-19Eastern Michigan (148.2)MACH92-88W100%0.0
1-23Miami OH (219.2)MACH75-46W100%0.0
1-26Northern Illinois (140.3)MACH76-66W100%0.0
1-30Ball St. (168.1)MACA64-73W100%0.0
2-2Ohio (83.3)MACA68-80W100%0.0
2-5Central Michigan (143.0)MACH92-87W100%0.0
2-9Bowling Green (201.8)MACA68-83W100%0.0
2-13Northern Illinois (140.3)MACA0-062%3.3
2-16Buffalo (104.3)MACH0-080%9.3
2-20Kent St. (106.7)MACA0-063%3.6
2-23Miami OH (219.2)MACA0-080%9.0
2-27Bowling Green (201.8)MACH0-090%13.7
3-1Ohio (83.3)MACH0-077%7.9
3-4Kent St. (106.7)MACH0-083%10.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Akron's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Akron's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Akron.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
AkronMAC26.2226.2687.8884.8819.8618.32
OhioMAC2.764.2168.1867.341.011.46
BuffaloMAC2.734.1356.5257.500.360.62
Miami OHMAC2.764.1336.3634.52-0.75-1.28
Bowling GreenMAC2.774.1352.3848.870.13-0.09
Kent St.MAC0.644.1065.2263.120.191.08
Central MichiganMAC4.754.0247.3749.35-0.25-0.05
Northern IllinoisMAC2.664.0263.1660.770.700.86
ToledoMAC2.762.5659.0960.760.500.55
Ball St.MAC2.662.5063.6459.140.720.46
Eastern MichiganMAC2.772.5042.1144.87-0.44-0.26
Western MichiganMAC2.612.4733.3333.85-0.87-0.80
Cleveland St.Horz2.371.9222.7323.59-1.29-1.01
South Carolina St.MEAC2.371.8454.5556.140.220.23
Bethune CookmanMEAC2.321.7933.3337.42-0.77-0.45
Coppin St.MEAC2.321.7615.0021.46-1.63-1.00
Green BayHorz2.271.7554.5556.180.210.22
LipscombASun2.221.7229.1731.58-0.93-0.63
MarshallCUSA2.221.7252.1752.850.100.10
ArkansasSEC2.221.7052.1754.710.100.16
IonaMAAC2.221.7063.6462.900.610.44
UC Santa BarbaraBW2.221.7047.6253.60-0.110.12
Charleston SouthernBSth2.221.6928.5728.92-0.95-0.71
VillanovaBE2.171.6786.9686.421.611.21
Wright St.Horz0.340.3254.1753.810.030.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.190.2629.1733.08-0.08-0.09
Youngstown St.Horz0.190.2630.4332.24-0.07-0.09
DetroitHorz0.340.2345.4543.88-0.03-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.240.2060.8762.470.050.05
HowardMEAC0.200.1836.3638.95-0.06-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.200.1843.4850.67-0.030.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.200.189.5210.67-0.16-0.14
OaklandHorz0.240.1765.3865.500.070.05
ValparaisoHorz0.190.1782.6183.030.120.11
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.140.1750.0052.880.000.01
CanisiusMAAC0.090.1742.3144.49-0.01-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.140.159.0912.25-0.12-0.12
JacksonvilleASun0.230.1447.8348.57-0.01-0.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.190.1431.8235.12-0.07-0.04
St. BonaventureA100.140.1472.7370.390.060.06
Morgan St.MEAC0.150.1219.0525.89-0.09-0.06
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.100.1231.8230.08-0.04-0.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.150.1229.1733.75-0.06-0.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.1238.1037.68-0.02-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.150.1225.0025.09-0.07-0.06
RiderMAAC0.190.1238.4641.36-0.04-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.150.124.357.71-0.14-0.10
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.190.1250.0049.320.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.100.1233.3330.27-0.03-0.05
North FloridaASun0.140.1262.5064.110.040.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.200.1283.3382.090.130.07
UC RiversideBW0.050.1245.8341.64-0.00-0.02
StetsonASun0.090.1122.7327.37-0.05-0.05
StanfordP120.190.1147.6244.07-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.150.1152.0054.840.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.090.1125.0033.24-0.05-0.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.150.1145.4546.07-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.090.1121.7424.25-0.05-0.06
NJITASun0.090.1156.0055.640.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.140.1148.0048.59-0.01-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.140.1126.0927.89-0.07-0.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.140.1165.2264.330.040.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.090.1150.0054.220.000.01
DelawareCAA0.140.1125.0024.91-0.07-0.05
XavierBE0.090.1187.5081.840.070.07
Old DominionCUSA0.090.1158.3363.160.020.03
LibertyBSth0.150.0934.7836.54-0.05-0.02
Ohio St.B100.100.0960.0055.570.020.01
HamptonMEAC0.150.0959.0961.290.030.02
LongwoodBSth0.140.0921.7424.59-0.08-0.05
FIUCUSA0.100.0939.1342.98-0.02-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.150.0945.4554.18-0.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.140.0960.8760.240.030.02
Florida St.ACC0.100.0966.6763.330.030.02
Penn St.B100.050.0950.0046.760.00-0.01
BelmontOVC0.130.0968.0066.640.050.03
CreightonBE0.140.0964.0062.070.040.02
Iowa St.B120.100.0970.8367.960.040.03
New OrleansSlnd0.100.0926.3232.42-0.05-0.03
IPFWSum0.100.0870.8368.650.040.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.140.0845.8343.78-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.090.0868.1865.190.030.03
TulsaAmer0.090.0866.6764.730.030.02
UCFAmer0.100.0850.0044.640.00-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.140.0839.1341.06-0.03-0.01
IUPUISum0.090.0838.4638.50-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.090.0833.3334.02-0.03-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.140.0854.1751.980.010.00
James MadisonCAA0.140.0872.0071.330.060.04
DaytonA100.090.0887.5083.730.070.06
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.090.0868.1867.730.030.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.090.0883.3381.270.060.05
TennesseeSEC0.090.0850.0048.120.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.050.0631.8232.07-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0657.1457.670.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0643.4845.20-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.050.0657.1459.870.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.100.0623.8125.48-0.05-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.100.0662.5063.450.020.02
WinthropBSth0.100.0666.6763.790.030.02
CaliforniaP120.100.0666.6764.780.030.02
Kansas St.B120.100.0658.3356.290.020.01
San FranciscoWCC0.100.0652.1749.150.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.050.0656.5255.330.010.01
South DakotaSum0.050.0644.0043.56-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.100.0658.3358.580.020.01
BYUWCC0.100.0668.0070.260.040.02
Cal PolyBW0.050.0628.5734.10-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0633.3330.63-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.100.0685.0083.450.070.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.100.0624.0024.16-0.05-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.100.0647.8351.93-0.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.100.0622.2231.13-0.06-0.02
UC DavisBW0.050.0638.1035.34-0.01-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.100.0669.5770.020.040.02
Weber St.BSky0.100.0666.6769.760.030.02
William & MaryCAA0.100.0668.1867.120.040.02
Oregon St.P120.100.0663.6458.770.030.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.100.0673.9174.640.050.03
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0672.0071.570.020.02
DrakeMVC0.050.0620.8323.28-0.03-0.03
FairfieldMAAC0.090.0654.1754.100.010.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.040.0625.0026.38-0.02-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0645.4543.17-0.00-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0680.7781.890.030.04
NiagaraMAAC0.090.0623.0823.85-0.05-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.050.0645.0048.15-0.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0634.7834.94-0.01-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.090.0656.0055.750.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.090.0643.4844.24-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.000.0665.3864.920.000.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0613.0415.26-0.04-0.04
UMBCAE0.050.0623.0825.89-0.03-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.090.0621.7422.42-0.05-0.03
MarylandB100.090.0687.5083.680.070.04
MercerSC0.090.0666.6767.110.030.02
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0652.1753.440.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.040.0686.9680.430.030.03
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0658.3359.970.020.01
West VirginiaB120.090.0679.1778.100.060.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0624.0025.68-0.02-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0645.4549.06-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0672.7367.600.000.02
SMUAmer0.000.0686.9682.930.000.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0673.0872.610.000.03
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0652.1751.840.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.050.0524.0026.42-0.02-0.03
ButlerBE0.050.0570.8368.990.020.02
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0537.5042.32-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.050.0575.0071.810.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.050.0556.0052.860.010.00
LSUSEC0.050.0562.5059.070.010.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0564.0057.890.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.0543.4843.76-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.050.0543.4844.81-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.090.0572.0069.130.040.02
Seton HallBE0.090.0570.8368.090.040.02
St. John'sBE0.050.0525.0023.43-0.02-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.090.0575.0075.350.050.03
UABCUSA0.050.0583.3379.820.030.03
VCUA100.050.0570.8371.030.020.02
FordhamA100.050.0352.3850.690.000.00
IowaB100.050.0379.1778.890.030.02
RadfordBSth0.050.0352.1754.090.000.00
TowsonCAA0.050.0362.5057.720.010.00
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0373.9176.700.020.02
LouisvilleACC0.050.0379.1776.000.030.02
Michigan St.B100.050.0380.0081.550.030.02
Arizona St.P120.050.0356.0053.630.010.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0360.8758.910.010.01
DuquesneA100.050.0360.8756.270.010.00
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0341.6739.50-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.050.0345.4543.98-0.00-0.00
USCP120.050.0375.0071.140.020.01
WashingtonP120.050.0362.5060.140.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.040.0340.0042.85-0.01-0.00
BrownIvy0.050.0330.0030.54-0.02-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.040.0383.3383.710.030.02
DenverSum0.040.0352.0049.300.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.050.0313.0416.41-0.03-0.02
PacificWCC0.050.0323.8125.99-0.02-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.040.0373.6875.880.020.01
RichmondA100.050.0356.5255.820.010.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0345.0049.16-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.050.0330.4328.20-0.02-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.040.0333.3332.04-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0316.6719.49-0.03-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0372.2275.710.020.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0350.0050.500.000.00
The CitadelSC0.050.0330.4329.49-0.02-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0377.2773.930.030.01
WisconsinB100.050.0362.5056.990.010.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0336.8442.87-0.01-0.00
BradleyMVC0.050.0312.0011.95-0.04-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0350.0049.490.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.050.0358.3360.910.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0323.8122.85-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.0360.8755.980.000.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0339.1335.44-0.00-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0372.0073.080.020.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0352.1753.740.000.00
FloridaSEC0.050.0366.6766.320.020.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0359.0955.160.010.00
KentuckySEC0.050.0375.0072.620.020.01
La SalleA100.050.0319.0520.30-0.03-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0372.7370.510.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0362.5058.940.000.00
NebraskaB100.050.0352.0050.770.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.050.0331.8232.47-0.02-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0317.6526.60-0.03-0.01
OklahomaB120.050.0386.9682.620.030.02
PennIvy0.050.0336.8437.30-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0327.2728.15-0.02-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.050.0361.9065.340.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0330.0031.76-0.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.000.0365.2262.360.000.01
Texas TechB120.050.0360.8755.310.010.00
UTEPCUSA0.050.0354.1754.210.000.00
UTSACUSA0.050.0313.0412.96-0.03-0.02
VirginiaACC0.050.0383.3378.460.030.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0341.6739.90-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0343.4842.54-0.01-0.00