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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Akron

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:34.0
Current RPI:34
Expected SOS:122
Current SOS:122
Current Record:25-8
Expected Record:25-8
Current Conf Record:15-6
Expected Conf Record:15-6
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC RPI:41
Expected OOC SOS:206



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-834.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Akron.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Cleveland St. (278.0)HorzN65-53W100%0.0
11-18Arkansas (133.0)SECA80-88W100%0.0
11-22Villanova (4.0)BEA75-56L0%0.0
11-24Green Bay (112.0)HorzA66-63L0%0.0
11-27Charleston Southern (298.0)BSthH82-58W100%0.0
12-2Coppin St. (326.0)MEACH77-71W100%0.0
12-4Marshall (128.0)CUSAA65-75W100%0.0
12-12Bethune Cookman (288.0)MEACH81-60W100%0.0
12-21UC Santa Barbara (97.0)BWN70-84W100%0.0
12-23Iona (77.0)MAACN78-64W100%0.0
12-30South Carolina St. (203.0)MEACH78-68W100%0.0
1-2Lipscomb (269.0)ASunH80-73W100%0.0
1-5Buffalo (90.0)MACA71-75W100%0.0
1-8Western Michigan (202.0)MACH62-53W100%0.0
1-12Central Michigan (156.0)MACA92-81L0%0.0
1-15Toledo (182.0)MACA78-64L0%0.0
1-19Eastern Michigan (113.0)MACH92-88W100%0.0
1-23Miami OH (195.0)MACH75-46W100%0.0
1-26Northern Illinois (136.0)MACH76-66W100%0.0
1-30Ball St. (179.0)MACA64-73W100%0.0
2-2Ohio (81.0)MACA68-80W100%0.0
2-5Central Michigan (156.0)MACH92-87W100%0.0
2-9Bowling Green (200.0)MACA68-83W100%0.0
2-13Northern Illinois (136.0)MACA80-79L0%0.0
2-16Buffalo (90.0)MACH80-70W100%0.0
2-19Kent St. (124.0)MACA85-76L0%0.0
2-23Miami OH (195.0)MACA77-64L0%0.0
2-26Bowling Green (200.0)MACH89-54W100%0.0
3-1Ohio (81.0)MACH91-76W100%0.0
3-4Kent St. (124.0)MACH74-60W100%0.0
3-10Eastern Michigan (113.0)MACN65-63W100%0.0
3-11Bowling Green (200.0)MACN80-66W100%0.0
3-12Buffalo (90.0)MACN61-64L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Akron's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Akron's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Akron.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
AkronMAC26.3926.3980.7480.7416.2316.23
Bowling GreenMAC5.415.4148.2848.28-0.19-0.19
BuffaloMAC5.385.3860.0060.001.081.08
OhioMAC3.983.9868.9768.971.511.51
Miami OHMAC3.933.9336.6736.67-1.05-1.05
Kent St.MAC3.913.9158.6258.620.670.67
Eastern MichiganMAC3.843.8451.8551.850.140.14
Central MichiganMAC3.813.8148.1548.15-0.14-0.14
Northern IllinoisMAC3.803.8059.2659.260.700.70
ToledoMAC2.452.4550.0050.000.000.00
Western MichiganMAC2.382.3837.9337.93-0.58-0.58
Ball St.MAC2.382.3860.0060.000.480.48
Cleveland St.Horz1.781.7824.1424.14-0.92-0.92
South Carolina St.MEAC1.691.6956.6756.670.230.23
Coppin St.MEAC1.641.6425.0025.00-0.82-0.82
Green BayHorz1.621.6262.5062.500.400.40
Bethune CookmanMEAC1.611.6141.3841.38-0.28-0.28
MarshallCUSA1.561.5653.1253.120.100.10
LipscombASun1.561.5633.3333.33-0.52-0.52
ArkansasSEC1.541.5451.6151.610.050.05
IonaMAAC1.541.5470.9770.970.650.65
Charleston SouthernBSth1.541.5423.0823.08-0.83-0.83
UC Santa BarbaraBW1.541.5458.6258.620.270.27
VillanovaBE1.521.5284.8584.851.061.06
Wright St.Horz0.320.3260.6160.610.070.07
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.270.2732.2632.26-0.10-0.10
DetroitHorz0.240.2448.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.240.2430.0030.00-0.10-0.10
MilwaukeeHorz0.200.2058.0658.060.030.03
CanisiusMAAC0.190.1942.4242.42-0.03-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.180.1848.3948.39-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.170.1765.6265.620.050.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.170.1755.1755.170.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.170.1780.0080.000.100.10
HowardMEAC0.150.1533.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.150.1510.7110.71-0.12-0.12
JacksonvilleASun0.150.1542.8642.86-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.150.1560.6160.610.030.03
St. BonaventureA100.140.1473.3373.330.070.07
Delaware St.MEAC0.130.1316.6716.67-0.08-0.08
Savannah St.MEAC0.130.1348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.120.1263.3363.330.030.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.120.1234.4834.48-0.04-0.04
StetsonASun0.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
Northern KentuckyHorz0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
DelawareCAA0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
Old DominionCUSA0.110.1162.8662.860.030.03
LongwoodBSth0.100.1023.3323.33-0.06-0.06
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.100.1028.5728.57-0.04-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Penn St.B100.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.1022.2222.22-0.06-0.06
RiderMAAC0.100.1039.3939.39-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.100.1079.3179.310.060.06
HamptonMEAC0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Chicago St.WAC0.100.103.453.45-0.09-0.09
MissouriSEC0.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
UC RiversideBW0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
StanfordP120.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
MaristMAAC0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
New OrleansSlnd0.100.1025.9325.93-0.05-0.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.100.1060.7160.710.020.02
Iowa St.B120.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
XavierBE0.090.0984.3884.380.060.06
Saint Joseph'sA100.090.0979.4179.410.050.05
LibertyBSth0.080.0834.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Ohio St.B100.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
HawaiiBW0.080.0883.3383.330.050.05
UC DavisBW0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
FIUCUSA0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0764.2964.290.020.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
IPFWSum0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
UCFAmer0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
IUPUISum0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
DaytonA100.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
DrakeMVC0.070.0720.0020.00-0.04-0.04
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0779.4179.410.040.04
North DakotaBSky0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.070.0711.1111.11-0.06-0.06
UMBCAE0.070.0721.8821.88-0.04-0.04
CreightonBE0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.070.0739.2939.29-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.070.0744.1244.12-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
Montana St.BSky0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
GeorgetownBE0.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
Seton HallBE0.070.0775.7675.760.030.03
CampbellBSth0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0657.6957.690.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.060.0664.2964.290.020.02
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
WinthropBSth0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
BYUWCC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
IdahoBSky0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
LouisvilleACC0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0526.9226.92-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
South DakotaSum0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
William & MaryCAA0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
UC IrvineBW0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
MercerSC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Oregon St.P120.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
SMUAmer0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
MarylandB100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
LSUSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
UABCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
UTEPCUSA0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
ButlerBE0.040.0467.7467.740.020.02
MarquetteBE0.040.0460.6160.610.010.01
St. John'sBE0.040.0422.5822.58-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
FordhamA100.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
IowaB100.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
TowsonCAA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0382.1482.140.020.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
The CitadelSC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
USCP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
WashingtonP120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.020.0212.9012.90-0.02-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
DenverSum0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
DuquesneA100.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.020.0277.7877.780.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
AuburnSEC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
KentuckySEC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
MississippiSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.020.0220.8320.83-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Texas TechB120.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.020.0223.0823.08-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
WyomingMWC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
La SalleA100.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.020.0247.0647.06-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
PennIvy0.020.0237.0437.04-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
VirginiaACC0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01