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Through games of Dec 18, 2014.


Akron

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:148.1
Current RPI:141
Expected SOS:155
Current SOS:149
Current Record:6-4
Expected Record:17-13
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-2
Current OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:187
Expected OOC SOS:290



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-650.00.06%
23-755.90.22%
22-866.20.94%
21-980.82.72%
20-1095.46.46%
19-11111.612.35%
18-12128.817.39%
17-13145.819.07%
16-14164.417.90%
15-15184.411.89%
14-16204.56.90%
13-17225.22.87%
12-18242.00.95%
11-19261.90.21%
10-20277.20.04%
9-21289.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Akron.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14UMBC (336.8)AEH74-57W100%0.0
11-20USC (189.1)P12N66-46W100%0.0
11-21Miami FL (23.0)ACCN79-51L0%0.0
11-23South Carolina (43.8)SECN63-68W100%0.0
11-25Penn St. (101.0)B10A78-72L0%0.0
11-30Bryant (199.6)NECH72-66W100%0.0
12-2Arkansas Pine Bluff (297.0)SWACH81-60W100%0.0
12-4Western Illinois (294.7)SumH73-49W100%0.0
12-13Middle Tennessee (203.3)CUSAH61-62L0%0.0
12-16North Dakota St. (163.9)SumA55-46L0%0.0
12-30Marshall (214.1)CUSAH0-075%8.0
1-3Coppin St. (335.0)MEACH0-098%24.4
1-6Western Michigan (125.5)MACH0-064%4.2
1-9Toledo (104.9)MACA0-027%-7.2
1-14Bowling Green (92.5)MACH0-055%1.5
1-17Central Michigan (92.9)MACH0-051%0.4
1-21Northern Illinois (269.3)MACA0-063%4.0
1-24Western Michigan (125.5)MACA0-035%-4.5
1-27Ball St. (228.5)MACH0-078%8.9
1-31Bowling Green (92.5)MACA0-027%-7.2
2-4Ohio (199.6)MACA0-050%-0.0
2-7Buffalo (46.6)MACH0-049%-0.4
2-10Kent St. (118.1)MACH0-060%3.0
2-14Eastern Michigan (116.8)MACA0-031%-5.9
2-18Toledo (104.9)MACH0-055%1.6
2-21Miami OH (274.9)MACH0-086%12.5
2-24Buffalo (46.6)MACA0-022%-9.2
2-28Ohio (199.6)MACH0-077%8.7
3-3Miami OH (274.9)MACA0-063%3.8
3-6Kent St. (118.1)MACA0-031%-5.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Akron's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Akron's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Akron.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
AkronMAC27.7626.2755.0053.782.781.98
Kent St.MAC0.004.1571.4361.900.000.99
BuffaloMAC0.004.1375.0069.420.001.60
OhioMAC0.254.1242.8638.23-0.04-0.97
Miami OHMAC0.004.1030.0028.68-0.00-1.75
Bowling GreenMAC0.004.0975.0068.240.001.49
ToledoMAC0.004.0460.0059.460.000.77
Western MichiganMAC0.004.0362.5055.320.000.43
Eastern MichiganMAC0.002.5171.4363.190.000.66
Central MichiganMAC0.252.5185.7171.220.181.06
Ball St.MAC0.002.4928.5737.49-0.00-0.62
Northern IllinoisMAC0.002.4850.0032.470.00-0.87
North Dakota St.Sum5.001.7950.0054.660.000.17
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC5.001.7622.2239.51-2.78-0.37
MarshallCUSA0.541.7525.0039.42-0.27-0.37
Western IllinoisSum5.001.7342.8633.28-0.71-0.58
Penn St.B105.251.7290.0052.314.200.08
Coppin St.MEAC0.001.700.0015.27-0.00-1.18
Middle TennesseeCUSA5.001.7037.5043.76-1.25-0.21
South CarolinaSEC5.001.7071.4366.562.140.56
USCP125.231.6966.6737.371.74-0.43
BryantNEC5.001.6733.3348.92-1.67-0.04
Miami FLACC5.001.6788.8974.703.890.82
UMBCAE5.001.6711.1121.66-3.89-0.94
CharlotteCUSA1.040.1960.0064.610.210.06
DenverSum0.000.1950.0054.230.000.02
IPFWSum0.000.1957.1456.900.000.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.1962.5054.970.000.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.310.1833.3349.71-0.10-0.00
NorthwesternB100.000.1760.0040.620.00-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1730.0039.44-0.00-0.04
IUPUISum0.000.1620.0026.33-0.00-0.08
EvansvilleMVC0.000.1577.7871.110.000.06
DaytonA100.000.1577.7870.120.000.06
New HampshireAE0.360.1557.1464.620.050.04
LongwoodBSth0.250.1420.0026.57-0.15-0.07
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.1455.5649.500.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.000.1430.0031.57-0.00-0.05
OregonP120.000.1466.6758.060.000.02
DrexelCAA0.500.1425.0037.13-0.25-0.04
Virginia TechACC0.230.1455.5638.130.03-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1344.4455.75-0.000.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.1344.4445.59-0.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.1327.2738.97-0.00-0.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.1245.4544.07-0.00-0.01
MaineAE0.000.1211.1121.08-0.00-0.07
DrakeMVC0.000.1220.0019.99-0.00-0.07
San DiegoWCC0.000.1254.5557.300.000.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.280.1236.3633.67-0.08-0.04
IowaB100.530.1272.7362.590.240.03
George WashingtonA100.480.1266.6766.340.160.04
St. BonaventureA100.000.1275.0065.410.000.04
Southern MissCUSA0.280.1242.8627.08-0.04-0.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.120.0023.15-0.00-0.06
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.120.0028.26-0.00-0.05
HowardMEAC0.500.1230.0043.91-0.20-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.1260.0057.600.000.02
VermontAE0.360.1144.4457.85-0.040.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.110.0031.74-0.00-0.04
Chicago St.WAC0.000.110.0011.40-0.00-0.09
DetroitHorz0.000.1144.4448.88-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.000.110.0011.87-0.00-0.09
FIUCUSA0.000.1144.4451.04-0.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.1150.0052.710.000.01
KentuckySEC0.000.11100.0094.790.000.10
CornellIvy0.540.1155.5648.240.06-0.00
Ohio St.B100.000.1190.0084.680.000.08
WisconsinB100.000.1190.9188.390.000.08
PacificWCC0.310.0950.0038.180.00-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.280.0940.0050.32-0.060.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.310.0918.1821.30-0.20-0.05
BelmontOVC0.280.0960.0062.970.060.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0936.3644.53-0.00-0.01
MichiganB100.000.0955.5642.550.00-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.310.0933.3362.92-0.100.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.230.0918.1835.99-0.14-0.02
Notre DameACC0.000.0990.9171.890.000.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.250.0922.2230.85-0.14-0.03
YaleIvy0.360.0972.7367.180.160.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0925.0049.09-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.250.0918.1828.02-0.16-0.04
DartmouthIvy0.000.0944.4447.53-0.00-0.00
UtahP120.000.0977.7879.480.000.05
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0988.8981.310.000.05
Michigan St.B100.250.0872.7373.150.110.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0872.7367.750.000.03
UABCUSA0.000.0830.0037.28-0.00-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.080.008.88-0.00-0.07
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.0810.0018.01-0.00-0.05
IllinoisB100.250.0872.7365.930.110.03
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0833.3345.50-0.00-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.08100.0085.330.000.06
MinnesotaB100.250.0877.7864.730.140.02
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0816.6727.56-0.00-0.04
StanfordP120.000.0875.0057.570.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.280.0840.0050.78-0.060.00
SouthernSWAC0.280.080.0033.84-0.28-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0866.6742.100.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.230.0840.0036.29-0.05-0.02
DukeACC0.000.08100.0087.140.000.06
IdahoBSky0.310.0637.5049.83-0.08-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0637.5034.19-0.00-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0675.0071.730.000.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0650.0053.700.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0620.0034.08-0.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0640.0046.73-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0633.3338.99-0.00-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0640.0050.07-0.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0650.0056.340.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0666.6757.860.000.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.060.007.84-0.00-0.05
South FloridaAmer0.000.0644.4444.78-0.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0644.4447.53-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.360.0650.0057.510.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.250.0641.6744.33-0.04-0.01
TowsonCAA0.250.0666.6751.430.080.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.0666.6754.660.000.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0633.3348.89-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.0677.7871.960.000.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0642.8638.26-0.00-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0628.5741.17-0.00-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0662.5059.510.000.01
HartfordAE0.000.0650.0051.050.000.00
KansasB120.000.0688.8969.390.000.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0633.3344.71-0.00-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0671.4359.920.000.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0637.5037.96-0.00-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0650.0058.360.000.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0660.0049.500.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0622.2240.44-0.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0650.0062.270.000.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0633.3354.74-0.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0650.0046.150.00-0.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0637.5041.20-0.00-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0655.5654.360.000.01
WagnerNEC0.000.0614.2933.54-0.00-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0642.8655.64-0.000.01
ValparaisoHorz0.250.0680.0069.620.150.02
ArmyPat0.610.0677.7868.780.340.02
AuburnSEC0.000.0644.4436.35-0.00-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.0642.8636.79-0.00-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.590.0688.8963.660.460.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0616.6726.28-0.00-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.000.0666.6772.670.000.03
UTSACUSA0.000.0642.8637.65-0.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0666.6745.670.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.250.0660.0064.930.050.02
PittsburghACC0.000.0666.6752.340.000.00
CaliforniaP120.000.0690.0066.690.000.02
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0655.5661.390.000.01
ColoradoP120.000.0666.6758.240.000.01
ElonCAA0.000.0637.5047.87-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.000.0625.0034.77-0.00-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0614.2930.74-0.00-0.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0677.7855.460.000.01
UCLAP120.000.0672.7357.280.000.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0622.2241.92-0.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0655.5654.950.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.530.050.0036.67-0.53-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0518.1844.62-0.00-0.01
MarylandB100.000.0590.9167.660.000.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0525.0033.17-0.00-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.050.0039.41-0.00-0.01
RutgersB100.000.0560.0035.070.00-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0511.1144.62-0.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.0570.0071.420.000.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0550.0037.510.00-0.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0355.5659.990.000.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.310.0311.1144.04-0.24-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.310.0357.1456.750.040.00
BradleyMVC0.000.0333.3332.09-0.00-0.01
MontanaBSky0.280.0325.0052.09-0.140.00
Montana St.BSky0.280.0322.2228.69-0.15-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.280.0325.0032.77-0.14-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.030.0023.71-0.00-0.02
TexasB120.280.0390.0081.860.220.02
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0337.5040.20-0.00-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0322.2237.75-0.00-0.01
DePaulBE0.000.0360.0034.110.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0012.36-0.00-0.02
HofstraCAA0.000.0377.7878.540.000.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0333.3332.85-0.00-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0370.0060.790.000.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0344.4470.08-0.000.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0370.0072.830.000.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0320.0029.81-0.00-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.0342.8643.10-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.310.0390.0073.870.250.01
BrownIvy0.360.0340.0033.79-0.07-0.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0385.7172.940.000.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0388.8963.800.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0355.5638.600.00-0.01
LehighPat0.000.0337.5047.71-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.250.0333.3327.70-0.08-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.0380.0064.110.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0370.0052.610.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0350.0039.340.00-0.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0344.4431.58-0.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0318.1846.16-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.000.0311.1125.02-0.00-0.01
NJITind0.000.0336.3640.98-0.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.310.0344.4456.91-0.030.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0377.7865.390.000.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.310.0314.2945.19-0.22-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0375.0060.400.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0390.0066.940.000.01
ArizonaP120.000.03100.0080.590.000.02
Arizona St.P120.000.0360.0053.820.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.250.0336.3638.88-0.07-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0344.4451.58-0.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.280.0377.7869.190.150.01
CreightonBE0.280.0372.7351.560.130.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.250.0325.0023.43-0.13-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.280.0355.5661.790.030.01
New MexicoMWC0.250.0370.0058.600.100.00
Portland St.BSky0.250.0350.0041.830.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0016.85-0.00-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.250.0350.0049.620.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.250.0355.5650.970.030.00
WashingtonP120.000.03100.0071.820.000.01
Washington St.P120.000.0340.0028.86-0.00-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.250.0357.1461.670.040.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.250.0310.0030.45-0.20-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0350.0044.900.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.230.0328.5731.23-0.10-0.01
FordhamA100.230.0328.5728.26-0.10-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0377.7851.350.000.00
Green BayHorz0.250.0375.0078.480.130.02
HawaiiBW0.250.0366.6754.830.080.00
High PointBSth0.250.0362.5056.410.060.00
HoustonAmer0.250.0371.4348.860.11-0.00
IndianaB100.000.0380.0057.630.000.00
NebraskaB100.000.0366.6743.780.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.0370.0071.630.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0381.8264.110.000.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.0372.7353.260.000.00
PurdueB100.000.0372.7363.730.000.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0366.6757.800.000.00
Texas TechB120.000.0388.8955.910.000.00
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0085.310.000.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.0350.0038.000.00-0.01