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Through games of Nov 27, 2014.


Clemson

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:124.1
Current RPI:273
Expected SOS:68
Current SOS:316
Current Record:3-2
Expected Record:15-15
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-1
Current OOC Record:3-2
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:163
Expected OOC SOS:234



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-722.50.02%
22-833.90.10%
21-943.50.40%
20-1055.61.21%
19-1167.03.63%
18-1280.27.61%
17-1395.513.36%
16-14110.617.68%
15-15126.519.06%
14-16142.717.27%
13-17159.810.98%
12-18176.35.30%
11-19192.62.34%
10-20211.30.78%
9-21229.20.20%
8-22240.50.04%
7-23248.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Clemson.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Florida A&M (346.8)MEACH86-41W100%0.0
11-17Winthrop (214.1)BSthH74-77L0%0.0
11-21Gardner Webb (127.0)BSthN72-70L0%0.0
11-22Nevada (185.2)MWCN50-59W100%0.0
11-24LSU (91.2)SECN61-64W100%0.0
11-28High Point (152.5)BSthH0-085%12.6
12-1Rutgers (232.7)B10H0-090%15.1
12-7Arkansas (23.6)SECH0-036%-4.2
12-14Auburn (179.7)SECH0-081%10.6
12-19South Carolina (85.9)SECA0-033%-5.2
12-22Oakland (260.4)HorzH0-089%14.7
12-30Robert Morris (232.1)NECH0-090%15.7
1-3North Carolina (10.0)ACCH0-024%-8.6
1-7Louisville (14.4)ACCA0-010%-15.6
1-10Pittsburgh (75.5)ACCA0-029%-6.8
1-13Virginia (16.7)ACCA0-014%-13.2
1-17Syracuse (34.5)ACCH0-037%-3.9
1-19Florida St. (165.0)ACCH0-074%7.7
1-24Wake Forest (95.9)ACCH0-058%2.6
1-28North Carolina St. (35.2)ACCA0-023%-8.9
1-31Boston College (157.0)ACCH0-074%7.8
2-4Florida St. (165.0)ACCA0-052%0.5
2-8Miami FL (12.9)ACCA0-013%-13.5
2-10Notre Dame (62.8)ACCH0-040%-3.0
2-14Virginia Tech (225.3)ACCH0-084%12.2
2-16Georgia Tech (122.1)ACCA0-044%-1.7
2-21Duke (3.9)ACCA0-06%-18.6
2-28Georgia Tech (122.1)ACCH0-068%5.5
3-3North Carolina St. (35.2)ACCH0-044%-1.7
3-7Notre Dame (62.8)ACCA0-020%-10.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Clemson's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Clemson's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Clemson.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ClemsonACC30.7526.0652.0045.361.23-2.42
Notre DameACC0.003.8983.3369.050.001.48
Georgia TechACC0.003.8875.0044.920.00-0.39
North Carolina St.ACC0.003.86100.0064.730.001.14
Florida St.ACC0.003.8540.0039.10-0.00-0.84
Wake ForestACC0.002.3366.6751.770.000.08
North CarolinaACC0.002.3380.0074.010.001.12
PittsburghACC0.002.3060.0057.460.000.34
Virginia TechACC0.002.2760.0036.660.00-0.61
DukeACC0.002.27100.0082.970.001.50
Miami FLACC0.002.27100.0078.610.001.30
Boston CollegeACC0.002.2740.0038.45-0.00-0.52
VirginiaACC0.002.27100.0072.870.001.04
LouisvilleACC0.002.24100.0077.990.001.26
SyracuseACC0.002.2480.0068.120.000.81
Gardner WebbBSth11.001.8225.0056.81-5.500.25
WinthropBSth10.001.820.0051.80-10.000.07
LSUSEC11.001.8175.0058.145.500.29
AuburnSEC0.001.8160.0038.360.00-0.42
ArkansasSEC0.001.81100.0080.220.001.09
High PointBSth0.001.7975.0058.580.000.31
South CarolinaSEC0.001.7850.0051.730.000.06
Robert MorrisNEC0.001.6933.3349.15-0.00-0.03
OaklandHorz0.001.6916.6726.80-0.00-0.79
Florida A&MMEAC10.001.670.0019.70-10.00-1.01
NevadaMWC10.001.6733.3344.75-3.33-0.18
RutgersB100.001.6750.0024.930.00-0.84
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.2666.6753.030.000.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.2566.6746.480.00-0.02
FloridaSEC0.000.2460.0062.400.000.06
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.2425.0053.73-0.000.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.2360.0056.890.000.03
RadfordBSth0.000.2125.0046.52-0.00-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.210.0023.49-0.00-0.11
Savannah St.MEAC1.670.2040.0033.19-0.33-0.07
VanderbiltSEC0.000.20100.0053.730.000.01
PurdueB100.000.1983.3368.400.000.07
KentuckySEC0.000.19100.0089.470.000.15
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.19100.0045.140.00-0.02
CampbellBSth0.000.190.0035.96-0.00-0.05
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.1833.3363.17-0.000.05
AlabamaSEC0.000.1780.0058.550.000.03
MissouriSEC0.000.1640.0036.39-0.00-0.04
Texas A&MSEC0.000.1675.0068.660.000.06
MississippiSEC0.000.1675.0053.040.000.01
MassachusettsA100.000.1683.3366.830.000.05
ProvidenceBE0.000.16100.0065.930.000.05
LongwoodBSth0.000.1620.0022.33-0.00-0.09
LibertyBSth0.000.1520.0029.36-0.00-0.06
MarylandB100.000.15100.0071.310.000.06
CharlotteCUSA0.000.1460.0067.380.000.05
Michigan St.B100.000.1480.0074.350.000.07
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.1433.3338.66-0.00-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.1425.0036.14-0.00-0.04
West VirginiaB120.000.14100.0068.860.000.05
DaytonA100.000.1175.0071.300.000.05
JacksonvilleASun0.000.110.0025.17-0.00-0.06
Ohio St.B100.000.11100.0074.590.000.06
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1125.0049.53-0.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.1120.0034.53-0.00-0.03
RichmondA100.000.1150.0063.970.000.03
North FloridaASun0.000.1140.0051.36-0.000.00
StetsonASun0.000.110.0029.60-0.00-0.05
IndianaB100.000.1180.0056.380.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.1125.0049.08-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.1175.0055.470.000.01
Seton HallBE2.250.09100.0063.122.250.02
USC UpstateASun0.830.0975.0057.260.420.01
WyomingMWC0.830.09100.0069.490.830.03
NorthwesternB100.000.0983.3338.760.00-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.090.0032.17-0.00-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0950.0028.400.00-0.04
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0983.3384.390.000.06
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.090.0028.59-0.00-0.04
MarshallCUSA0.000.0950.0045.460.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.090.0067.79-0.000.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0950.0040.660.00-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA1.000.0840.0053.54-0.200.01
Green BayHorz0.000.0875.0078.500.000.05
Iowa St.B120.000.0875.0061.130.000.02
Boise St.MWC0.000.0880.0063.470.000.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0840.0054.55-0.000.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0840.0060.45-0.000.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0825.0033.76-0.00-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.080.0052.73-0.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0825.0045.71-0.00-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.080.0018.96-0.00-0.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.080.0028.02-0.00-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0825.0039.20-0.00-0.02
BryantNEC0.000.0833.3346.36-0.00-0.01
IowaB100.000.0866.6765.220.000.03
MichiganB100.000.0875.0066.060.000.03
Penn St.B100.000.0883.3348.340.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.000.080.0023.09-0.00-0.04
NebraskaB100.000.0875.0052.330.000.00
MinnesotaB100.000.0850.0055.020.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0880.0072.400.000.04
The CitadelSC0.000.080.0028.25-0.00-0.04
WoffordSC0.000.0880.0077.100.000.04
ArizonaP120.000.06100.0076.220.000.03
James MadisonCAA0.000.0680.0046.880.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.000.0633.3345.53-0.00-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.06100.0069.610.000.02
Fresno St.MWC0.000.060.0023.13-0.00-0.03
IPFWSum0.000.0666.6762.480.000.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0660.0039.990.00-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.060.0017.77-0.00-0.04
UNLVMWC0.000.0675.0051.700.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.0660.0055.000.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0625.0031.20-0.00-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.060.0028.00-0.00-0.03
William & MaryCAA0.000.0675.0055.000.000.01
FurmanSC0.000.0625.0027.48-0.00-0.03
HawaiiBW0.000.0671.4356.020.000.01
Old DominionCUSA2.000.0680.0074.881.200.03
New MexicoMWC0.000.0660.0056.430.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0620.0031.24-0.00-0.02
DetroitHorz0.000.0660.0059.160.000.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0620.0031.46-0.00-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0625.0047.85-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0036.81-0.00-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0675.0056.110.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0650.0048.990.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.000.0680.0070.550.000.02
Weber St.BSky2.250.0625.0052.78-1.130.00
DavidsonA100.000.0666.6764.030.000.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0625.0035.86-0.00-0.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0675.0069.240.000.02
HarvardIvy0.000.0666.6773.130.000.03
AkronMAC0.000.0660.0066.680.000.02
CornellIvy0.000.0642.8641.73-0.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0633.3337.71-0.00-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0616.6745.35-0.00-0.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0625.0045.04-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0614.2930.86-0.00-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0616.6739.60-0.00-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.060.0030.72-0.00-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.060.0044.60-0.00-0.01
New HampshireAE0.000.0633.3346.25-0.00-0.00
WagnerNEC0.000.060.0044.93-0.00-0.01
DuquesneA100.000.05100.0053.990.000.00
IllinoisB100.000.05100.0067.700.000.02
Texas TechB121.000.0575.0045.180.50-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.0520.0037.96-0.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.05100.0087.590.000.04
CincinnatiAmer0.000.05100.0062.000.000.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.050.0020.98-0.00-0.03
HartfordAE0.000.0580.0051.710.000.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0560.0068.830.000.02
Holy CrossPat0.000.05100.0064.010.000.02
IonaMAAC0.000.0580.0079.440.000.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0520.0043.38-0.00-0.01
NavyPat0.000.0520.0030.56-0.00-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.0580.0067.100.000.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0550.0047.680.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.000.0533.3335.99-0.00-0.02
St. John'sBE0.000.05100.0056.410.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.0566.6741.780.00-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC1.670.0366.6758.150.560.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0320.0035.95-0.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0316.6732.00-0.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0320.0038.45-0.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW1.250.0333.3334.34-0.42-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0340.0037.90-0.00-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0350.0050.720.000.00
PacificWCC0.000.0333.3332.18-0.00-0.01
BaylorB120.000.03100.0075.130.000.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0052.530.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0360.0068.290.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.830.0340.0046.34-0.17-0.00
La SalleA100.000.03100.0056.910.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0333.3358.80-0.000.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.830.0350.0070.920.000.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.030.0051.90-0.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.000.03100.0060.400.000.01
San DiegoWCC0.830.0360.0050.240.170.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0025.08-0.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.0380.0073.390.000.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0340.0047.99-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0350.0048.100.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.000.0350.0031.400.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0375.0064.570.000.01
ButlerBE0.000.0380.0071.410.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0340.0054.85-0.000.00
ColoradoP120.000.0375.0060.510.000.01
DelawareCAA0.000.030.0019.53-0.00-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.0380.0063.370.000.01
LafayettePat0.000.0360.0061.400.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0325.0052.42-0.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0325.0043.61-0.00-0.00
MaineAE0.000.030.0019.84-0.00-0.02
MaristMAAC0.000.0320.0034.06-0.00-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0366.6750.170.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0350.0052.540.000.00
Oregon St.P120.000.0350.0042.750.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0320.0040.88-0.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0041.21-0.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0360.0055.660.000.00
UCLAP120.000.0366.6758.390.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.000.0360.0041.750.00-0.00
USCP120.000.0350.0029.750.00-0.01
XavierBE0.000.03100.0078.730.000.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.030.0063.05-0.000.01
ArmyPat0.000.03100.0069.590.000.01
BucknellPat0.000.0333.3335.76-0.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0333.3337.74-0.00-0.01
ColgatePat0.000.0320.0039.05-0.00-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0375.0069.780.000.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0320.0036.57-0.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.03100.0057.070.000.00
ElonCAA0.000.0340.0039.26-0.00-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0340.0032.81-0.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0380.0072.320.000.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0350.0046.120.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0333.3329.78-0.00-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0340.0031.76-0.00-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0047.66-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0340.0026.71-0.00-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0333.3330.24-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.030.0030.59-0.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0375.0039.180.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.03100.0077.870.000.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.030.0050.53-0.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0320.0037.69-0.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0065.020.000.01
SMUAmer0.000.0350.0065.590.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.030.0040.20-0.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0325.0043.27-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0366.6751.730.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0375.0052.070.000.00
StanfordP120.000.0380.0071.340.000.01
TempleAmer0.000.0360.0050.480.000.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0366.6739.850.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0366.6747.100.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0375.0050.750.000.00
VillanovaBE0.000.03100.0075.980.000.01
VMISC0.000.0325.0035.97-0.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0340.0045.07-0.00-0.00