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Through games of Dec 20, 2014.


Clemson

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:165.7
Current RPI:165
Expected SOS:70
Current SOS:179
Current Record:6-4
Expected Record:13-17
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-2
Current OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:197
Expected OOC SOS:267



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-1052.30.03%
19-1167.50.17%
18-1280.90.55%
17-1399.12.26%
16-14114.95.72%
15-15132.412.89%
14-16150.420.29%
13-17168.221.98%
12-18185.818.47%
11-19203.510.91%
10-20220.44.83%
9-21236.41.50%
8-22253.10.33%
7-23265.30.06%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Clemson.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Florida A&M (349.1)MEACH86-41W100%0.0
11-17Winthrop (263.8)BSthH74-77L0%0.0
11-21Gardner Webb (166.3)BSthN72-70L0%0.0
11-22Nevada (283.3)MWCN50-59W100%0.0
11-24LSU (69.7)SECN61-64W100%0.0
11-28High Point (132.3)BSthH62-59W100%0.0
12-1Rutgers (172.3)B10H64-69L0%0.0
12-7Arkansas (41.7)SECH68-65W100%0.0
12-14Auburn (171.1)SECH72-61W100%0.0
12-19South Carolina (39.3)SECA68-45L0%0.0
12-22Oakland (234.3)HorzH0-078%9.1
12-30Robert Morris (266.7)NECH0-085%12.2
1-3North Carolina (9.4)ACCH0-013%-13.3
1-7Louisville (7.9)ACCA0-02%-23.3
1-10Pittsburgh (115.2)ACCA0-027%-7.0
1-13Virginia (6.7)ACCA0-02%-23.0
1-17Syracuse (70.4)ACCH0-037%-3.9
1-19Florida St. (185.7)ACCH0-066%4.8
1-24Wake Forest (157.9)ACCH0-062%3.5
1-28North Carolina St. (48.9)ACCA0-014%-12.9
1-31Boston College (153.3)ACCH0-064%4.3
2-4Florida St. (185.7)ACCA0-038%-3.6
2-8Miami FL (42.5)ACCA0-013%-13.0
2-10Notre Dame (48.2)ACCH0-022%-9.0
2-14Virginia Tech (210.7)ACCH0-072%6.9
2-16Georgia Tech (80.2)ACCA0-025%-7.8
2-21Duke (4.4)ACCA0-02%-24.4
2-28Georgia Tech (80.2)ACCH0-052%0.5
3-3North Carolina St. (48.9)ACCH0-035%-4.5
3-7Notre Dame (48.2)ACCA0-07%-17.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Clemson's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Clemson's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Clemson.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ClemsonACC27.6926.0550.0037.550.00-6.49
Notre DameACC0.003.8891.6776.540.002.06
Georgia TechACC0.003.8780.0052.670.000.21
North Carolina St.ACC0.003.8575.0060.500.000.81
Florida St.ACC0.003.8554.5541.570.00-0.65
North CarolinaACC0.002.3272.7374.430.001.13
Wake ForestACC0.252.3245.4537.58-0.02-0.58
PittsburghACC0.002.2970.0051.090.000.05
VirginiaACC0.232.29100.0085.690.231.63
Miami FLACC0.002.2681.8265.320.000.69
Virginia TechACC0.002.2660.0038.370.00-0.53
DukeACC0.002.26100.0086.720.001.66
Boston CollegeACC0.002.2666.6742.840.00-0.32
LouisvilleACC0.002.24100.0084.510.001.54
SyracuseACC0.002.2460.0057.950.000.36
Gardner WebbBSth5.251.8228.5748.40-2.25-0.06
WinthropBSth5.251.8214.2942.04-3.75-0.29
LSUSEC5.311.8188.8966.044.130.58
AuburnSEC5.311.8155.5641.160.59-0.32
ArkansasSEC5.001.8188.8974.613.890.89
High PointBSth5.001.7975.0064.162.500.51
South CarolinaSEC5.001.7862.5064.801.250.53
RutgersB105.001.6950.0030.340.00-0.67
OaklandHorz0.001.6927.2732.83-0.00-0.58
Robert MorrisNEC0.001.6930.0040.44-0.00-0.32
Florida A&MMEAC5.001.670.0012.37-5.00-1.25
NevadaMWC5.001.6712.5026.43-3.75-0.79
FloridaSEC0.000.2763.6465.220.000.08
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.2642.8649.51-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.2555.5646.290.00-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.280.2414.2944.44-0.20-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.000.2262.5059.050.000.04
RadfordBSth0.000.2155.5658.650.000.04
PresbyterianBSth0.000.210.008.60-0.00-0.17
Savannah St.MEAC0.620.2018.1827.33-0.40-0.09
KentuckySEC0.000.19100.0096.290.000.18
VanderbiltSEC0.230.1966.6758.210.080.03
PurdueB100.000.1966.6759.370.000.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.1944.4437.40-0.00-0.05
CampbellBSth0.000.1925.0043.93-0.00-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.250.1857.1470.520.040.08
AlabamaSEC0.000.1766.6754.130.000.01
MissouriSEC0.000.1640.0032.26-0.00-0.06
Texas A&MSEC0.000.1670.0061.320.000.04
MississippiSEC0.000.1670.0052.600.000.01
MassachusettsA100.250.1654.5552.490.020.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.1675.0057.390.000.02
LongwoodBSth0.000.1620.0025.85-0.00-0.08
LibertyBSth0.000.1525.0035.39-0.00-0.04
MarylandB100.310.1490.9168.230.260.05
CharlotteCUSA0.280.1454.5564.070.030.04
Michigan St.B100.000.1466.6767.300.000.05
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.230.1437.5039.65-0.06-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.1433.3341.20-0.00-0.02
West VirginiaB120.250.1490.9170.080.200.05
JacksonvilleASun0.310.1110.0018.05-0.25-0.07
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1133.3349.35-0.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.250.1130.0031.48-0.10-0.04
Ohio St.B100.280.1181.8282.250.180.07
RichmondA100.280.1160.0057.700.060.02
North FloridaASun0.530.1150.0057.820.000.02
StetsonASun0.250.1110.0027.17-0.20-0.05
DaytonA100.250.1180.0069.770.150.04
IndianaB100.000.1181.8263.330.000.03
ManhattanMAAC0.230.1130.0038.01-0.09-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.000.1140.0041.32-0.00-0.02
WyomingMWC0.250.0980.0073.540.150.04
Seton HallBE0.820.0990.0067.380.650.03
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0972.7372.580.000.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.090.0023.69-0.00-0.05
MarshallCUSA0.280.0922.2236.53-0.15-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0945.4543.23-0.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.310.0845.4545.10-0.03-0.01
Green BayHorz0.000.0875.0077.010.000.05
Iowa St.B120.250.0890.0065.480.200.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0850.0071.260.000.04
USC UpstateASun0.250.0863.6467.210.070.03
Boise St.MWC0.000.0877.7872.890.000.04
Long Beach St.BW0.280.0836.3650.71-0.080.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0863.6461.520.000.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.080.0011.59-0.00-0.06
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.080.0014.00-0.00-0.06
Delaware St.MEAC0.250.0836.3646.72-0.07-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.080.0028.43-0.00-0.04
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0837.5034.64-0.00-0.03
BryantNEC0.000.0828.5745.89-0.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0863.6442.810.00-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0855.5660.980.000.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.230.0830.0043.15-0.09-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.230.0855.5665.210.030.03
BinghamtonAE0.000.080.0011.24-0.00-0.06
IowaB100.000.0866.6759.420.000.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0872.7367.520.000.03
MichiganB100.000.0850.0040.450.00-0.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0880.0067.830.000.03
NebraskaB100.000.0866.6744.720.00-0.01
Penn St.B100.000.0891.6755.310.000.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0814.2932.16-0.00-0.03
WoffordSC0.000.0877.7875.550.000.04
ArizonaP120.310.06100.0082.630.310.04
Air ForceMWC0.000.0650.0055.890.000.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.06100.0078.210.000.03
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0627.2729.17-0.00-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.000.060.008.00-0.00-0.05
UNLVMWC0.000.0666.6749.560.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.0654.5548.260.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.310.0650.0037.570.00-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.280.0663.6455.660.080.01
FurmanSC0.310.0622.2231.81-0.17-0.02
HawaiiBW0.280.0666.6754.470.090.01
Old DominionCUSA0.560.0690.0082.310.450.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.280.0620.0035.33-0.17-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.280.0657.1457.100.040.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0672.7362.220.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0618.1830.76-0.00-0.02
DetroitHorz0.000.0640.0048.02-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0618.1820.86-0.00-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0681.8273.180.000.03
Wright St.Horz0.000.0660.0057.890.000.01
CaliforniaP120.280.0690.9169.030.230.02
Weber St.BSky0.530.0637.5044.33-0.13-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0654.5559.560.000.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.250.0627.2735.36-0.11-0.02
AkronMAC0.280.0660.0056.150.060.01
CornellIvy0.280.0655.5648.710.03-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0633.3337.91-0.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0644.4450.41-0.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0645.4549.62-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.000.0630.0043.74-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0638.4644.61-0.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0616.6735.27-0.00-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0620.0027.29-0.00-0.03
HarvardIvy0.000.0685.7172.910.000.03
IPFWSum0.000.0650.0054.190.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0633.3345.04-0.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0660.0048.980.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.0666.6773.310.000.03
RiderMAAC0.000.0650.0053.250.000.00
WagnerNEC0.000.0612.5030.56-0.00-0.02
DavidsonA100.000.0588.8977.320.000.03
DuquesneA100.000.0537.5034.06-0.00-0.02
George WashingtonA100.230.0566.6765.500.080.02
New HampshireAE0.230.0550.0060.410.000.01
Texas TechB120.500.0590.0055.360.400.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0570.0064.680.000.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.050.009.06-0.00-0.04
HartfordAE0.000.0550.0050.620.000.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0570.0076.180.000.03
Holy CrossPat0.000.0557.1453.770.000.00
IllinoisB100.000.0575.0065.140.000.02
IonaMAAC0.250.0560.0069.200.050.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0516.6743.20-0.00-0.01
NavyPat0.000.0520.0022.16-0.00-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.000.0570.0060.920.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0542.8633.27-0.00-0.02
SamfordSC0.000.0533.3330.28-0.00-0.02
St. John'sBE0.000.0588.8965.170.000.02
UABCUSA0.250.0530.0036.69-0.10-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.0555.5635.900.00-0.02
WisconsinB100.000.0590.9188.840.000.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.310.0371.4363.770.130.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.310.0320.0045.74-0.19-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.280.0318.1837.71-0.18-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.280.0316.6733.39-0.19-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.280.0337.5041.94-0.07-0.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.280.0336.3637.85-0.08-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.280.0344.4455.37-0.030.00
PacificWCC0.280.0355.5638.270.03-0.01
BaylorB120.280.0390.0073.240.220.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0375.0066.220.000.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0362.5072.070.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.250.0336.3645.11-0.07-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0316.6737.21-0.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.250.0333.3361.74-0.080.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.250.0337.5056.46-0.060.00
Oklahoma St.B120.280.0388.8963.020.220.01
San DiegoWCC0.250.0354.5557.570.020.00
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0320.0040.93-0.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0355.5652.610.000.00
BradleyMVC0.000.0333.3334.04-0.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0377.7870.890.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0340.0049.39-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.250.0366.6758.000.080.00
DelawareCAA0.000.030.008.56-0.00-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.0370.0059.220.000.01
La SalleA100.000.0354.5552.730.000.00
LafayettePat0.000.0366.6767.650.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.250.0337.5049.31-0.06-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0333.3346.17-0.00-0.00
MaineAE0.000.0311.1120.80-0.00-0.02
MaristMAAC0.000.039.0916.15-0.00-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0350.0047.880.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.250.0377.7856.220.140.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0015.00-0.00-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0320.0052.97-0.000.00
TulsaAmer0.250.0360.0056.620.050.00
UMass LowellAE0.000.0350.0050.490.000.00
USCP120.000.0360.0036.410.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.0372.7375.740.000.01
XavierBE0.250.0372.7367.590.110.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.250.0333.3362.72-0.080.01
ArmyPat0.000.0377.7868.780.000.01
BucknellPat0.000.0340.0036.66-0.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.000.0372.7367.960.000.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0318.1822.49-0.00-0.01
ColgatePat0.000.0320.0042.59-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0350.0058.070.000.00
DrexelCAA0.000.0322.2235.90-0.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0350.0068.770.000.01
ElonCAA0.000.0344.4451.07-0.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0340.0037.64-0.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0377.7870.160.000.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0363.6440.190.00-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0333.3328.79-0.00-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0333.3328.13-0.00-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.250.0320.0044.37-0.15-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0330.0028.65-0.00-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0350.0058.370.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0312.5029.51-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.030.0017.97-0.00-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.250.0342.8636.81-0.04-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0390.9183.090.000.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0316.6740.27-0.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0333.3341.02-0.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.230.0336.3648.18-0.06-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.250.0355.5673.740.030.01
SMUAmer0.250.0372.7375.710.110.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.030.0031.89-0.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.250.0340.0046.19-0.05-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0342.8626.99-0.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0377.7865.110.000.01
StanfordP120.000.0366.6758.320.000.00
TempleAmer0.000.0363.6456.430.000.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0388.8955.860.000.00
UCLAP120.000.0366.6754.480.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0357.1455.330.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0330.0038.57-0.00-0.01
VillanovaBE0.000.03100.0082.970.000.02
VMISC0.000.0333.3338.93-0.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0350.0051.710.000.00