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Through games of Feb 5, 2016.


Clemson

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:91.4
Current RPI:76
Expected SOS:97
Current SOS:73
Current Record:14-8
Expected Record:19-11
Current Conf Record:7-3
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-2
Current OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:264
Expected OOC SOS:336



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-846.90.85%
21-959.96.68%
20-1072.119.04%
19-1185.229.62%
18-12100.526.44%
17-13118.613.44%
16-14137.53.52%
15-15152.80.37%
14-16167.00.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Clemson.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13North Carolina Central (310.3)MEACH74-40W100%0.0
11-15UTSA (340.4)CUSAH78-45W100%0.0
11-19Texas Southern (178.9)SWACH76-56W100%0.0
11-23Massachusetts (191.5)A10N82-65L0%0.0
11-25Rutgers (278.5)B10N58-76W100%0.0
11-30Minnesota (237.8)B10A89-83L0%0.0
12-2USC Upstate (320.8)ASunH76-56W100%0.0
12-6Wofford (201.4)SCH66-51W100%0.0
12-13Alabama (85.4)SECH50-51L0%0.0
12-15Presbyterian (330.1)BSthH69-41W100%0.0
12-18South Carolina (56.3)SECH59-65L0%0.0
12-22Georgia (81.2)SECA71-48L0%0.0
12-30North Carolina (9.5)ACCA80-69L0%0.0
1-2Florida St. (51.1)ACCH84-75W100%0.0
1-5Syracuse (50.8)ACCA73-74W100%0.0
1-10Louisville (15.9)ACCH66-62W100%0.0
1-13Duke (20.3)ACCH68-63W100%0.0
1-16Miami FL (14.4)ACCH76-65W100%0.0
1-19Virginia (8.1)ACCA69-62L0%0.0
1-27Pittsburgh (39.4)ACCH73-60W100%0.0
1-30Florida St. (51.1)ACCA76-65L0%0.0
2-2Wake Forest (121.0)ACCA62-76W100%0.0
2-6Virginia Tech (138.1)ACCA0-057%1.8
2-8Notre Dame (48.1)ACCH0-053%0.8
2-13Georgia Tech (83.5)ACCH0-064%3.9
2-17Boston College (231.0)ACCH0-094%16.6
2-20North Carolina St. (113.5)ACCA0-044%-1.5
2-23Georgia Tech (83.5)ACCA0-040%-2.7
3-1Virginia (8.1)ACCH0-037%-3.8
3-5Boston College (231.0)ACCA0-082%9.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Clemson's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Clemson's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Clemson.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ClemsonACC26.2826.0660.4760.005.505.21
Georgia TechACC0.423.9154.5553.090.040.24
Boston CollegeACC0.423.8531.8227.60-0.15-1.73
Florida St.ACC4.813.8570.0064.191.921.09
VirginiaACC2.583.8580.9575.611.601.97
SyracuseACC2.642.3269.5764.801.030.69
Notre DameACC0.372.3268.1864.300.130.66
LouisvilleACC2.592.3085.7180.071.851.38
Miami FLACC2.582.3085.0078.251.801.30
North CarolinaACC2.582.2985.7180.011.841.38
Virginia TechACC0.362.2752.1747.380.02-0.12
North Carolina St.ACC0.522.2752.1749.130.02-0.04
Wake ForestACC2.632.2747.6243.59-0.13-0.29
PittsburghACC2.482.2684.2172.801.691.03
DukeACC2.432.2476.1972.251.271.00
GeorgiaSEC2.331.8057.8954.510.370.16
South CarolinaSEC2.441.7885.0075.201.710.90
WoffordSC2.381.7840.0044.89-0.48-0.18
AlabamaSEC2.381.7855.0050.670.240.02
RutgersB102.321.7523.8121.40-1.22-1.00
PresbyterianBSth2.381.7327.7828.44-1.06-0.74
Texas SouthernSWAC2.371.7250.0059.250.000.32
MinnesotaB102.271.7222.7325.32-1.24-0.85
USC UpstateASun2.331.7025.0025.99-1.17-0.82
UTSACUSA2.331.6915.0014.47-1.63-1.20
MassachusettsA102.271.6740.0037.77-0.45-0.41
North Carolina CentralMEAC2.271.6727.7838.40-1.01-0.39
Mississippi St.SEC0.380.2842.8641.75-0.05-0.05
MissouriSEC0.220.2036.3630.98-0.06-0.07
FloridaSEC0.210.2068.1867.800.080.07
LSUSEC0.160.1763.6459.440.040.03
ArkansasSEC0.110.1750.0054.850.000.02
KentuckySEC0.160.1772.7369.690.070.07
TennesseeSEC0.170.1750.0048.260.00-0.01
IndianaB100.250.1782.6177.370.170.09
Michigan St.B100.150.1682.6181.380.100.10
VCUA100.150.1677.2776.780.080.09
WinthropBSth0.220.1565.0063.370.070.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.110.1457.1457.930.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.160.1481.8281.010.100.09
AuburnSEC0.110.1442.8637.19-0.02-0.04
MississippiSEC0.220.1463.6456.050.060.02
VanderbiltSEC0.210.1459.0962.730.040.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.160.1430.0033.57-0.06-0.05
Ohio St.B100.150.1458.3354.120.030.01
IllinoisB100.100.1447.8344.51-0.00-0.02
IowaB100.150.1481.8279.900.100.08
NorthwesternB100.150.1466.6763.480.050.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.1226.0930.33-0.03-0.05
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.230.1257.8957.330.040.02
The CitadelSC0.170.1235.0031.39-0.05-0.04
High PointBSth0.120.1257.8961.480.020.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.160.1225.0029.29-0.08-0.05
JacksonvilleASun0.160.1247.6247.86-0.01-0.01
VMISC0.110.1216.6718.97-0.08-0.07
Kennesaw St.ASun0.210.1222.7324.28-0.12-0.06
HowardMEAC0.220.1240.0042.53-0.04-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.170.1125.0029.91-0.08-0.05
Central ArkansasSlnd0.220.1116.6724.27-0.14-0.06
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.160.1123.8128.31-0.08-0.05
CreightonBE0.210.1160.8759.050.050.02
George WashingtonA100.160.1177.2771.670.090.05
NebraskaB100.160.1152.1751.560.010.00
DuquesneA100.060.1166.6758.760.020.02
HarvardIvy0.110.1136.8441.45-0.03-0.02
MichiganB100.100.1172.7367.980.050.04
CornellIvy0.100.1144.4441.14-0.01-0.02
Penn St.B100.050.1147.8343.63-0.00-0.01
FordhamA100.050.1157.8954.300.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.100.1110.5325.37-0.08-0.05
UMass LowellAE0.050.1133.3332.88-0.02-0.04
VillanovaBE0.050.1186.3685.330.040.08
LibertyBSth0.060.0931.8232.92-0.02-0.03
FurmanSC0.110.0954.5553.780.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.110.0975.0072.220.060.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.170.0927.2732.84-0.08-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.110.0945.0049.60-0.01-0.00
LipscombASun0.110.0921.7427.64-0.06-0.04
North FloridaASun0.110.0968.1869.350.040.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.110.0917.3921.76-0.07-0.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0921.0529.16-0.03-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.170.0938.1047.51-0.04-0.00
RichmondA100.110.0952.3853.680.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.110.0963.1666.150.030.03
UABCUSA0.110.0981.8278.320.070.05
ChattanoogaSC0.170.0985.7184.560.120.06
UMKCWAC0.160.0930.0034.84-0.06-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.110.0933.3333.64-0.04-0.03
SamfordSC0.110.0840.9143.37-0.02-0.01
PurdueB100.160.0882.6178.230.100.05
OaklandHorz0.110.0866.6767.310.040.03
CharlotteCUSA0.100.0836.3642.19-0.03-0.01
DavidsonA100.160.0857.8955.400.030.01
DePaulBE0.160.0836.3634.95-0.04-0.03
George MasonA100.050.0836.3635.33-0.01-0.02
HofstraCAA0.160.0868.1865.420.060.03
La SalleA100.110.0821.0520.91-0.06-0.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0826.3233.83-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0821.7424.60-0.03-0.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0816.6720.71-0.04-0.05
LehighPat0.100.0830.0036.08-0.04-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.100.0842.8651.33-0.010.00
MarylandB100.100.0886.9681.770.080.05
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0881.8277.440.030.05
St. BonaventureA100.100.0870.0069.070.040.03
St. John'sBE0.150.0827.2724.41-0.07-0.04
West VirginiaB120.050.0881.8278.720.030.05
William & MaryCAA0.050.0870.0069.360.020.03
WisconsinB100.100.0860.8755.900.020.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0813.6413.80-0.04-0.06
ProvidenceBE0.050.0878.2671.960.030.04
ColgatePat0.050.0842.8643.53-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0834.7841.59-0.02-0.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0833.3332.41-0.02-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0628.5734.73-0.00-0.02
CampbellBSth0.060.0630.0030.38-0.02-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0621.0523.70-0.03-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0642.8647.27-0.01-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.060.0619.0522.35-0.04-0.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0631.5833.51-0.02-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0663.6465.480.020.02
NavyPat0.110.0665.2265.230.030.02
NJITASun0.050.0652.1754.520.000.01
StetsonASun0.050.0625.0029.75-0.03-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.060.0647.8350.56-0.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.110.0650.0050.860.000.00
RadfordBSth0.060.0652.3853.620.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.110.0636.8437.30-0.03-0.01
FIUCUSA0.050.0642.8645.93-0.01-0.00
MercerSC0.050.0671.4370.600.020.02
UTEPCUSA0.050.0650.0050.040.000.00
BaylorB120.110.0676.1967.350.060.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0640.9139.22-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.110.0672.7368.630.050.02
Kansas St.B120.110.0659.0955.550.020.01
TexasB120.110.0668.1861.780.040.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.110.0635.0035.36-0.03-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.110.0647.6247.96-0.01-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0635.2944.50-0.02-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0633.3334.18-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.050.068.709.77-0.04-0.04
CaliforniaP120.050.0663.6461.810.010.01
DaytonA100.110.0685.7181.220.080.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0650.0056.540.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.110.0657.8961.920.020.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0661.9062.050.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0679.1780.770.030.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.100.0610.0015.28-0.08-0.04
OhioMAC0.100.0660.0057.960.020.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.064.7614.01-0.05-0.04
Rhode IslandA100.050.0654.5555.990.000.01
XavierBE0.110.0690.9184.430.090.04
BucknellPat0.050.0552.3856.770.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0526.0925.56-0.03-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.050.0547.8348.69-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.110.0538.1033.38-0.03-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.050.0520.8320.11-0.03-0.03
TempleAmer0.100.0561.9058.420.020.01
UCLAP120.100.0556.5253.350.010.00
UtahP120.110.0572.7368.550.050.02
DelawareCAA0.000.0522.7323.64-0.00-0.03
ElonCAA0.100.0554.5553.020.010.00
GeorgetownBE0.100.0556.5253.460.010.00
Green BayHorz0.000.0557.1457.880.000.01
MaineAE0.000.0536.3635.58-0.00-0.02
New HampshireAE0.000.0552.6351.510.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0531.8232.32-0.00-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.000.0572.7371.670.000.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0310.0014.87-0.05-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0338.1042.99-0.01-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.060.0360.0061.350.010.01
HoustonAmer0.060.0372.7368.010.030.01
MarquetteBE0.060.0365.2256.530.020.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.060.0338.1037.53-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0347.6252.96-0.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0350.0048.750.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0345.4541.98-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0334.7837.55-0.02-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.050.0331.5836.16-0.02-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0365.0064.310.020.01
DetroitHorz0.060.0345.0044.39-0.01-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0350.0053.090.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.060.0366.6761.680.020.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0370.0068.920.020.01
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0352.3854.240.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.060.0347.6252.92-0.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.050.0330.0029.46-0.02-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0354.5561.950.000.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0325.0028.19-0.03-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0325.0029.52-0.03-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0315.7916.39-0.04-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0373.6870.400.030.01
Texas St.SB0.050.0341.1840.28-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0352.1754.400.000.00
ButlerBE0.050.0368.1866.490.020.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0350.0050.510.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.050.034.557.91-0.04-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0361.9059.930.010.01
DrexelCAA0.050.0314.2918.63-0.04-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0352.3853.820.000.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0359.0959.680.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0340.0044.95-0.01-0.00
MemphisAmer0.050.0359.0958.550.010.00
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0340.9138.03-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0359.0959.470.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0363.6464.090.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0329.4138.47-0.02-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0350.0045.730.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0340.9143.01-0.01-0.00
OregonP120.050.0381.8278.210.030.02
PrincetonIvy0.050.0370.5974.500.020.01
South DakotaSum0.050.0339.1339.48-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0376.1976.220.030.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0347.6249.35-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0368.7574.730.020.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0380.0082.460.000.02
Texas TechB120.050.0361.9054.010.010.00
TulsaAmer0.050.0363.6459.950.010.01
UCFAmer0.050.0355.0047.170.01-0.00
UMBCAE0.050.0320.8325.01-0.03-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0315.0015.65-0.04-0.02
Washington St.P120.050.0338.1033.45-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0376.1979.640.030.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0331.8233.75-0.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0327.2730.43-0.02-0.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0352.1750.240.000.00
BryantNEC0.050.0326.0927.58-0.02-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0357.1457.510.010.00
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0372.7372.440.020.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0338.8943.22-0.01-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0352.1752.980.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0381.8281.010.030.02
HartfordAE0.050.0326.0926.47-0.02-0.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0372.7368.840.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.0341.6740.25-0.00-0.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0333.3332.69-0.00-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.050.0338.1041.23-0.01-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0352.1754.140.000.00
SienaMAAC0.050.0366.6767.290.020.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.0335.0034.93-0.00-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.050.0347.3749.38-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.050.0372.2273.760.020.01