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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Clemson

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:106.0
Current RPI:106
Expected SOS:57
Current SOS:57
Current Record:16-15
Expected Record:16-15
Current Conf Record:8-11
Expected Conf Record:8-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-1
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:151
Expected OOC SOS:187



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-15106.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Clemson.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Florida A&M (350.0)MEACH86-41W100%0.0
11-17Winthrop (210.0)BSthH74-77L0%0.0
11-21Gardner Webb (146.0)BSthN72-70L0%0.0
11-22Nevada (306.0)MWCN50-59W100%0.0
11-24LSU (57.0)SECN61-64W100%0.0
11-28High Point (89.0)BSthH62-59W100%0.0
12-1Rutgers (178.0)B10H64-69L0%0.0
12-7Arkansas (19.0)SECH68-65W100%0.0
12-14Auburn (129.0)SECH72-61W100%0.0
12-19South Carolina (91.0)SECA68-45L0%0.0
12-22Oakland (155.0)HorzH70-60W100%0.0
12-30Robert Morris (171.0)NECH64-57W100%0.0
1-3North Carolina (11.0)ACCH50-74L0%0.0
1-7Louisville (21.0)ACCA58-52L0%0.0
1-10Pittsburgh (76.0)ACCA62-71W100%0.0
1-13Virginia (7.0)ACCA65-42L0%0.0
1-17Syracuse (69.0)ACCH66-53W100%0.0
1-19Florida St. (110.0)ACCH55-59L0%0.0
1-24Wake Forest (150.0)ACCH59-57W100%0.0
1-28North Carolina St. (39.0)ACCA57-68W100%0.0
1-31Boston College (165.0)ACCH64-49W100%0.0
2-4Florida St. (110.0)ACCA56-62W100%0.0
2-8Miami FL (65.0)ACCA56-45L0%0.0
2-10Notre Dame (16.0)ACCH58-60L0%0.0
2-14Virginia Tech (228.0)ACCH75-54W100%0.0
2-16Georgia Tech (153.0)ACCA63-52L0%0.0
2-21Duke (6.0)ACCA78-56L0%0.0
2-28Georgia Tech (153.0)ACCH70-63W100%0.0
3-3North Carolina St. (39.0)ACCH61-66L0%0.0
3-7Notre Dame (16.0)ACCA81-67L0%0.0
3-11Florida St. (110.0)ACCN73-76L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Clemson's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Clemson's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Clemson.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ClemsonACC26.0826.0846.7246.72-1.71-1.71
Florida St.ACC5.335.3350.0050.000.000.00
Notre DameACC3.823.8284.3884.382.632.63
North Carolina St.ACC3.773.7761.2961.290.850.85
Georgia TechACC3.763.7637.9337.93-0.91-0.91
North CarolinaACC2.362.3667.6567.650.830.83
VirginiaACC2.302.3090.3290.321.861.86
PittsburghACC2.282.2858.0658.060.370.37
Miami FLACC2.282.2862.5062.500.570.57
DukeACC2.282.2887.5087.501.711.71
Virginia TechACC2.262.2634.3834.38-0.71-0.71
Wake ForestACC2.262.2641.9441.94-0.36-0.36
Boston CollegeACC2.262.2641.9441.94-0.36-0.36
LouisvilleACC2.182.1874.1974.191.051.05
SyracuseACC2.162.1660.0060.000.430.43
Gardner WebbBSth1.781.7851.7251.720.060.06
AuburnSEC1.771.7742.4242.42-0.27-0.27
LSUSEC1.761.7670.9770.970.740.74
High PointBSth1.751.7570.3770.370.710.71
WinthropBSth1.751.7553.5753.570.120.12
ArkansasSEC1.741.7478.7978.791.001.00
South CarolinaSEC1.711.7148.3948.39-0.06-0.06
OaklandHorz1.641.6448.2848.28-0.06-0.06
RutgersB101.641.6429.0329.03-0.69-0.69
Robert MorrisNEC1.641.6459.3859.380.310.31
Florida A&MMEAC1.611.617.147.14-1.38-1.38
NevadaMWC1.611.6125.0025.00-0.81-0.81
FloridaSEC0.270.2748.4848.48-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.260.2659.2659.260.050.05
GeorgiaSEC0.250.2565.6265.620.080.08
TennesseeSEC0.240.2450.0050.000.000.00
RadfordBSth0.220.2262.0762.070.050.05
KentuckySEC0.220.22100.00100.000.220.22
Mississippi St.SEC0.220.2238.7138.71-0.05-0.05
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.220.2268.9768.970.080.08
UNC AshevilleBSth0.220.2242.8642.86-0.03-0.03
CampbellBSth0.190.1924.1424.14-0.10-0.10
PresbyterianBSth0.190.1921.4321.43-0.11-0.11
Savannah St.MEAC0.190.1924.1424.14-0.10-0.10
VanderbiltSEC0.180.1858.0658.060.030.03
PurdueB100.170.1763.6463.640.050.05
MississippiSEC0.170.1762.5062.500.040.04
MassachusettsA100.170.1753.1253.120.010.01
MissouriSEC0.170.1725.8125.81-0.08-0.08
Texas A&MSEC0.170.1764.5264.520.050.05
ProvidenceBE0.170.1766.6766.670.060.06
LongwoodBSth0.170.1728.1228.12-0.07-0.07
AlabamaSEC0.150.1554.8454.840.010.01
LibertyBSth0.140.1414.2914.29-0.10-0.10
MarylandB100.130.1381.8281.820.080.08
StetsonASun0.130.1321.4321.43-0.07-0.07
North FloridaASun0.130.1364.5264.520.040.04
CharlotteCUSA0.130.1343.7543.75-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.120.1267.6567.650.040.04
ManhattanMAAC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
West VirginiaB120.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
South FloridaAmer0.120.1225.8125.81-0.06-0.06
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
RichmondA100.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Ohio St.B100.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
IndianaB100.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
MinnesotaB100.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
BryantNEC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
NebraskaB100.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
The CitadelSC0.100.1029.6329.63-0.04-0.04
UNLVMWC0.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
WyomingMWC0.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
San Diego St.MWC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Seton HallBE0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0875.8675.860.040.04
MarshallCUSA0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Green BayHorz0.080.0873.3373.330.040.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
NorthwesternB100.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.080.0827.2727.27-0.03-0.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
ToledoMAC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
Penn St.B100.070.0752.9452.940.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.070.0717.2417.24-0.05-0.05
IowaB100.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.070.0767.6567.650.030.03
UCFAmer0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
WagnerNEC0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
WoffordSC0.070.0781.2581.250.050.05
BinghamtonAE0.070.0716.6716.67-0.05-0.05
Air ForceMWC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0681.2581.250.030.03
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.060.060.000.00-0.06-0.06
Utah St.MWC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
DetroitHorz0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0583.3383.330.040.04
Wright St.Horz0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
IPFWSum0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
RiderMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
FurmanSC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
CornellIvy0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0574.0774.070.020.02
New HampshireAE0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
SamfordSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
DuquesneA100.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
WisconsinB100.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
IonaMAAC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Texas TechB120.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.03-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
HofstraCAA0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
UABCUSA0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.050.000.00-0.05-0.05
HartfordAE0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
ColgatePat0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.030.0394.1294.120.020.02
BaylorB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
BucknellPat0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
MaineAE0.030.0310.0010.00-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0347.0647.06-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0372.4172.410.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
TulaneAmer0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
USCP120.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.030.0374.2974.290.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
ArmyPat0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.020.0258.8258.820.000.00
DelawareCAA0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0260.7160.710.010.01
ElonCAA0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
LafayettePat0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0290.9190.910.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
TempleAmer0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
VMISC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.020.0262.9662.960.010.01
ColoradoP120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.020.0252.9452.940.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.020.0255.5655.560.000.00
Oregon St.P120.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
SMUAmer0.020.0281.2581.250.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0264.7164.710.010.01
TulsaAmer0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
ButlerBE0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
UCLAP120.020.0260.6160.610.000.00