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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.


Clemson

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:148.3
Current RPI:164
Expected SOS:100
Current SOS:130
Current Record:11-11
Expected Record:15-15
Current Conf Record:3-5
Expected Conf Record:7-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.52%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-2
Current OOC Record:8-6
Expected OOC Record:8-6
Expected OOC RPI:203
Expected OOC SOS:261



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1187.00.01%
18-1298.00.57%
17-13111.04.67%
16-14124.617.01%
15-15139.728.48%
14-16156.128.10%
13-17173.715.87%
12-18191.44.74%
11-19205.90.54%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Clemson.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Gardner Webb (270.8)BSthH65-44W100%0.0
11-16The Citadel (331.4)SCA50-73W100%0.0
11-19College of Charleston (128.5)SCH69-72L0%0.0
11-22Coastal Carolina (116.0)BSthH59-60L0%0.0
11-25Furman (230.9)SCH59-49W100%0.0
11-29Iowa (139.5)B10A55-71W100%0.0
12-4South Carolina (172.1)SECH55-58L0%0.0
12-10Arizona (75.8)P12A63-47L0%0.0
12-17Winthrop (269.0)BSthH60-40W100%0.0
12-19Alabama St. (301.5)SWACH70-45W100%0.0
12-22Texas El Paso (178.1)CUSAN48-61L0%0.0
12-23Southern Illinois (227.1)MVCN75-83W100%0.0
12-25Hawaii (184.5)WACA75-68L0%0.0
1-1East Tennessee St. (190.6)ASunH65-58W100%0.0
1-7Florida St. (21.9)ACCH79-59W100%0.0
1-12Boston College (248.2)ACCA59-57L0%0.0
1-15Duke (4.2)ACCH66-73L0%0.0
1-18Miami FL (64.4)ACCA76-73L0%0.0
1-21Georgia Tech (164.1)ACCH64-62W100%0.0
1-28Wake Forest (171.6)ACCH71-60W100%0.0
1-31Virginia (39.5)ACCA65-61L0%0.0
2-4Virginia Tech (93.2)ACCA67-65L0%0.0
2-7Maryland (112.8)ACCH0-075%7.4
2-11Wake Forest (171.6)ACCA0-064%4.1
2-14Virginia (39.5)ACCH0-036%-3.9
2-18North Carolina (4.6)ACCA0-07%-15.8
2-21Georgia Tech (164.1)ACCA0-051%0.2
2-25North Carolina St. (62.9)ACCH0-052%0.5
3-1Virginia Tech (93.2)ACCH0-051%0.4
3-4Florida St. (21.9)ACCA0-014%-11.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Clemson's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Clemson's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Clemson.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ClemsonACC26.1426.1345.7445.07-2.22-2.58
Virginia TechACC2.583.9254.5553.880.230.30
VirginiaACC2.633.9180.9576.431.632.07
Wake ForestACC2.523.8850.0045.510.00-0.35
Florida St.ACC2.523.8876.1973.761.321.85
Georgia TechACC2.533.8640.9143.37-0.46-0.51
Boston CollegeACC2.532.3027.2723.90-1.15-1.20
DukeACC2.522.3085.7182.531.801.50
North Carolina St.ACC0.362.2870.8364.960.150.68
North CarolinaACC0.362.2786.9682.850.261.49
MarylandACC0.312.2759.0951.710.060.08
Miami FLACC2.422.2463.1658.590.640.39
Gardner WebbBSth2.551.8536.3640.16-0.69-0.36
College of CharlestonSC2.501.8256.5258.600.330.31
The CitadelSC2.491.8210.0011.88-1.99-1.39
WinthropBSth2.421.8136.3635.89-0.66-0.51
Coastal CarolinaBSth2.471.8170.5970.811.020.75
FurmanSC2.481.7850.0050.700.000.03
East Tennessee St.ASun2.321.7255.0054.820.230.17
South CarolinaSEC2.271.6938.1037.48-0.54-0.42
Alabama St.SWAC2.271.6731.5838.68-0.84-0.38
ArizonaP122.271.6765.2267.510.690.58
HawaiiWAC2.271.6755.0051.380.230.05
IowaB102.271.6756.5251.090.300.04
Southern IllinoisMVC2.271.6736.3633.21-0.62-0.56
Texas El PasoCUSA2.271.6740.9141.35-0.41-0.29
CampbellBSth0.310.2956.0055.650.040.03
High PointBSth0.360.2731.8232.75-0.13-0.09
Charleston SouthernBSth0.380.2755.0060.330.040.06
Appalachian St.SC0.270.2735.0039.29-0.08-0.06
NC AshevilleBSth0.210.2768.1867.640.080.09
WoffordSC0.360.2659.0957.930.070.04
NC GreensboroSC0.370.2634.7833.46-0.11-0.09
PresbyterianBSth0.330.2440.9143.66-0.06-0.03
Georgia SouthernSC0.200.2340.0041.30-0.04-0.04
ElonSC0.310.2350.0047.590.00-0.01
Virginia Military InstBSth0.270.2145.0044.15-0.03-0.03
DavidsonSC0.260.2176.1976.760.140.11
RadfordBSth0.210.188.7013.10-0.17-0.13
JacksonvilleASun0.210.1817.3922.00-0.14-0.10
Western CarolinaSC0.110.1834.7837.24-0.03-0.04
Louisiana St.SEC0.160.1759.0957.280.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.150.1745.4541.20-0.01-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.210.1745.4544.66-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.260.1710.0014.93-0.20-0.12
DrakeMVC0.200.1752.1750.090.010.00
LibertyBSth0.210.1527.2727.21-0.10-0.07
MercerASun0.160.1570.8371.640.070.06
Florida InternationalSB0.170.1433.3337.16-0.06-0.04
North FloridaASun0.160.1445.8346.68-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.200.1469.5768.900.080.05
AuburnSEC0.210.1456.5248.810.03-0.00
MassachusettsA100.210.1473.9168.580.100.05
FloridaSEC0.200.1482.6177.630.130.08
Michigan St.B100.150.1476.1972.910.080.06
ChattanoogaSC0.100.1227.2735.02-0.04-0.04
SamfordSC0.100.1233.3335.26-0.03-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.110.1250.0048.900.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.110.1217.6527.10-0.07-0.05
StetsonASun0.110.1231.8231.31-0.04-0.04
NC WilmingtonCAA0.100.1139.1336.10-0.02-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.170.1150.0058.160.000.02
EvansvilleMVC0.160.1145.4544.02-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.1135.2939.85-0.01-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.100.1168.1869.100.040.04
Central FloridaCUSA0.100.1171.4366.600.040.04
TulaneCUSA0.100.1161.9058.590.020.02
Kansas St.B120.150.1172.7368.280.070.04
OregonP120.150.1169.5764.530.060.03
IndianaB100.100.1175.0075.780.050.06
Arizona St.P120.100.1130.4331.43-0.04-0.04
MichiganB100.150.1172.7366.810.070.04
NebraskaB100.100.1152.3846.680.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.050.1161.9055.140.010.01
MinnesotaB100.140.1169.5761.310.060.02
Oklahoma St.B120.100.1145.4540.70-0.01-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.110.0960.8759.760.020.02
East CarolinaCUSA0.160.0944.4441.71-0.02-0.01
LipscombASun0.100.0943.4843.82-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.110.0917.3924.41-0.07-0.04
South Carolina UpstateASun0.160.0954.5556.090.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.110.0945.0046.13-0.01-0.01
BelmontASun0.110.0969.5773.280.040.04
St. LouisA100.160.0977.2777.670.080.05
Western MichiganMAC0.150.0940.9142.96-0.03-0.01
DrexelCAA0.100.0979.1778.100.060.05
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.100.0882.6181.440.070.05
CreightonMVC0.100.0887.5085.410.070.06
Northern IowaMVC0.100.0862.5061.500.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.0852.3857.860.000.01
George MasonCAA0.100.0876.0072.500.050.04
HarvardIvy0.100.0890.4887.910.080.06
PurdueB100.150.0865.2260.580.050.02
KentuckySEC0.100.0895.8392.570.090.07
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0838.8943.93-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.050.0847.3752.87-0.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0869.5765.870.020.03
ColoradoP120.050.0866.6762.650.020.02
Ohio St.B100.150.0886.9685.460.110.06
Penn St.B100.100.0841.6738.67-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.100.0820.8320.60-0.06-0.05
Southern CaliforniaP120.100.0825.0025.13-0.05-0.04
MonmouthNEC0.050.0828.0028.91-0.02-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.050.0860.0059.060.010.01
SyracuseBE0.050.0895.8392.010.050.07
WashingtonP120.100.0869.5766.540.040.03
WisconsinB100.050.0875.0073.970.020.04
James MadisonCAA0.110.0640.0040.18-0.02-0.01
Western KentuckySB0.100.0634.7834.48-0.03-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0616.6723.02-0.04-0.03
Fresno St.WAC0.050.0639.1344.52-0.01-0.01
GramblingSWAC0.060.0615.0015.73-0.04-0.04
IdahoWAC0.050.0647.6251.08-0.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0619.0525.52-0.04-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.110.068.7011.67-0.09-0.05
Louisiana TechWAC0.050.0642.8643.45-0.01-0.01
NevadaWAC0.050.0680.9576.420.030.03
PacificBW0.110.0635.0037.47-0.03-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0635.0040.78-0.02-0.01
San Jose St.WAC0.110.0627.2726.95-0.05-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0631.8242.13-0.02-0.01
TroySB0.110.0628.5730.17-0.05-0.02
Utah St.WAC0.050.0650.0052.930.000.00
CharlotteA100.110.0650.0049.450.00-0.00
XavierA100.100.0665.2263.740.030.02
MarshallCUSA0.110.0659.0959.720.020.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.110.0647.0650.75-0.010.00
BradleyMVC0.100.0624.0024.86-0.05-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.100.0662.5062.060.020.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0656.5254.220.010.00
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0654.1757.200.000.01
Wichita St.MVC0.100.0682.6180.420.060.03
GonzagaWCC0.100.0681.8281.490.060.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.0633.3337.25-0.03-0.01
MemphisCUSA0.060.0669.5771.510.020.02
MississippiSEC0.110.0663.6456.710.030.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0655.0057.410.000.01
Chicago St.GWC0.100.064.769.95-0.09-0.04
NortheasternCAA0.050.0647.8348.56-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.100.065.267.30-0.09-0.05
ConnecticutBE0.050.0668.1863.990.020.02
DaytonA100.050.0660.8760.960.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0619.0522.37-0.03-0.03
FordhamA100.050.0640.9134.50-0.01-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.100.0640.9142.05-0.02-0.01
HoustonCUSA0.100.0647.6244.63-0.00-0.01
Longwoodind0.050.0630.0027.84-0.02-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0659.0957.760.010.01
Loyola MDMAAC0.050.0677.2773.450.030.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0620.0019.96-0.03-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.100.0656.5250.270.010.00
RiceCUSA0.050.0647.6246.46-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.050.0650.0048.490.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0662.5062.490.010.01
Seattleind0.050.0623.5333.28-0.03-0.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0665.2263.740.020.02
SienaMAAC0.050.0645.4545.55-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.050.0652.3852.870.000.00
Southern MethodistCUSA0.050.0638.1037.86-0.01-0.01
Texas ChristianMWC0.050.0657.1449.540.01-0.00
Texas TechB120.050.0631.8225.98-0.02-0.03
TowsonCAA0.050.064.005.26-0.05-0.05
TulsaCUSA0.050.0660.8759.050.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.100.0642.8639.66-0.01-0.01
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.050.0680.0078.060.030.03
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.050.0635.0039.38-0.02-0.01
YaleIvy0.050.0672.2263.190.020.01
BryantNEC0.100.058.3310.86-0.08-0.04
Colorado St.MWC0.100.0566.6760.800.030.01
IllinoisB100.000.0572.7364.430.000.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0578.2672.340.030.02
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0545.4546.99-0.00-0.00
TempleA100.050.0577.2775.060.030.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0556.5253.100.010.00
Brigham YoungWCC0.050.0575.0076.000.020.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0540.9138.38-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0568.1869.680.020.02
St. John'sBE0.100.0543.4840.28-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.050.0569.5768.290.020.02
TexasB120.000.0560.8761.370.000.01
UCLAP120.050.0554.5556.790.000.01
UtahP120.050.0518.1815.01-0.03-0.04
Washington St.P120.050.0550.0048.170.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.050.0340.9141.72-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0355.0054.800.010.00
DenverSB0.050.0370.8372.230.020.01
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.050.0319.0521.29-0.03-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0321.0522.46-0.03-0.02
CincinnatiBE0.060.0369.5765.470.020.01
DetroitHorz0.060.0347.8349.03-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0350.0051.730.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0340.9144.03-0.01-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0334.7838.42-0.02-0.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0379.1775.980.030.02
MontanaBSky0.000.0370.0073.280.000.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0355.0054.480.010.00
PepperdineWCC0.050.0331.8233.83-0.02-0.01
UC DavisBW0.050.030.005.37-0.05-0.03
ButlerHorz0.050.0350.0050.800.000.00
Florida AtlanticSB0.060.0336.3639.72-0.02-0.01
RutgersBE0.060.0350.0046.810.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0326.3229.71-0.02-0.01
West VirginiaBE0.060.0365.2265.170.020.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0360.0060.420.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0369.5765.150.000.01
Boston UniversityAE0.050.0348.0051.88-0.000.00
CornellIvy0.000.0336.8441.45-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0379.1780.100.000.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.0371.4369.050.000.01
LouisvilleBE0.050.0378.2672.660.030.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0341.1842.61-0.01-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0326.0928.60-0.00-0.01
New HampshireAE0.050.0335.0038.58-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0381.8281.030.030.02
Notre DameBE0.000.0365.2262.650.000.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0344.0045.89-0.01-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0327.7829.58-0.02-0.01
Southern MississippiCUSA0.000.0385.7182.180.000.02
Stony BrookAE0.050.0366.6768.050.020.01
Texas San AntonioSlnd0.050.0357.1460.750.010.01
UABCUSA0.050.0340.9139.82-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0342.8641.13-0.01-0.00
BrownIvy0.050.0327.2723.80-0.02-0.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0375.0074.610.020.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0327.7829.87-0.02-0.01
DuquesneA100.050.0359.0956.350.010.00
Iowa St.B120.050.0373.9168.430.020.01
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.050.0335.0035.31-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.050.0378.2678.390.030.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0371.4373.350.000.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0325.0023.75-0.00-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0313.6416.14-0.03-0.02
OaklandSum0.050.0348.0050.21-0.000.00
Oregon St.P120.050.0363.6463.160.010.01
PennsylvaniaIvy0.050.0354.5556.840.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0385.7178.050.030.02
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0365.2263.610.010.01