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Through games of Nov 22, 2014.


Clemson

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:110.8
Current RPI:276
Expected SOS:47
Current SOS:277
Current Record:2-2
Expected Record:15-14
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-1
Current OOC Record:2-2
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:179
Expected OOC SOS:190



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-718.80.04%
21-825.80.18%
20-934.80.87%
19-1044.82.45%
18-1157.36.60%
17-1271.611.18%
16-1388.115.48%
15-14105.719.30%
14-15123.717.10%
13-16142.913.36%
12-17161.17.71%
11-18180.23.66%
10-19198.51.46%
9-20213.30.49%
8-21228.10.09%
7-22250.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Clemson.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Florida A&M (346.8)MEACH86-41W100%0.0
11-17Winthrop (166.8)BSthH74-77L0%0.0
11-21Gardner Webb (88.9)BSthN72-70L0%0.0
11-22Nevada (164.3)MWCN50-59W100%0.0
11-28High Point (153.5)BSthH0-087%13.6
12-1Rutgers (170.5)B10H0-080%10.1
12-7Arkansas (31.7)SECH0-045%-1.6
12-14Auburn (157.1)SECH0-078%9.4
12-19South Carolina (83.4)SECA0-035%-4.5
12-22Oakland (245.0)HorzH0-088%14.4
12-30Robert Morris (256.8)NECH0-093%18.0
1-3North Carolina (11.8)ACCH0-032%-5.7
1-7Louisville (11.1)ACCA0-012%-13.9
1-10Pittsburgh (105.0)ACCA0-042%-2.5
1-13Virginia (14.7)ACCA0-015%-12.3
1-17Syracuse (34.2)ACCH0-043%-2.2
1-19Florida St. (130.3)ACCH0-070%6.1
1-24Wake Forest (143.5)ACCH0-075%8.2
1-28North Carolina St. (57.0)ACCA0-032%-5.6
1-31Boston College (154.6)ACCH0-076%8.5
2-4Florida St. (130.3)ACCA0-047%-1.0
2-8Miami FL (18.9)ACCA0-020%-10.3
2-10Notre Dame (36.7)ACCH0-039%-3.4
2-14Virginia Tech (232.6)ACCH0-087%13.8
2-16Georgia Tech (84.5)ACCA0-041%-2.7
2-21Duke (2.5)ACCA0-06%-18.7
2-28Georgia Tech (84.5)ACCH0-065%4.5
3-3North Carolina St. (57.0)ACCH0-055%1.6
3-7Notre Dame (36.7)ACCA0-019%-10.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Clemson's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Clemson's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Clemson.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ClemsonACC33.8526.0840.0045.70-6.77-2.24
Notre DameACC0.004.03100.0074.860.002.00
Georgia TechACC0.004.02100.0053.540.000.28
North Carolina St.ACC0.004.00100.0059.400.000.75
Florida St.ACC0.004.0033.3347.13-0.00-0.23
Wake ForestACC0.002.4150.0042.190.00-0.38
North CarolinaACC0.002.41100.0073.470.001.13
PittsburghACC0.002.3866.6750.530.000.03
DukeACC0.002.35100.0085.860.001.69
Miami FLACC0.002.35100.0073.290.001.10
Virginia TechACC0.002.3566.6733.890.00-0.76
Boston CollegeACC0.002.3550.0042.110.00-0.37
VirginiaACC0.002.35100.0075.400.001.19
LouisvilleACC0.002.33100.0078.330.001.32
SyracuseACC0.002.3375.0068.530.000.86
WinthropBSth12.501.890.0058.77-12.500.33
High PointBSth0.001.8675.0057.430.000.28
Gardner WebbBSth12.501.8550.0067.690.000.66
ArkansasSEC0.001.84100.0074.270.000.89
AuburnSEC0.001.8266.6741.070.00-0.32
South CarolinaSEC0.001.8150.0053.900.000.14
OaklandHorz0.001.750.0033.23-0.00-0.59
Robert MorrisNEC0.001.7525.0043.17-0.00-0.24
Florida A&MMEAC12.501.720.0018.93-12.50-1.07
NevadaMWC12.501.7250.0048.550.00-0.05
RutgersB100.001.7250.0038.160.00-0.41
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.2850.0054.970.000.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.2633.3345.63-0.00-0.02
RadfordBSth0.000.2333.3348.73-0.00-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.220.0024.77-0.00-0.11
GeorgiaSEC0.000.2166.6758.190.000.03
PurdueB100.000.20100.0060.550.000.04
TennesseeSEC0.000.2050.0042.680.00-0.03
FloridaSEC0.000.2066.6767.200.000.07
CampbellBSth0.000.200.0030.19-0.00-0.08
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.200.0063.56-0.000.05
Savannah St.MEAC3.120.1850.0041.720.00-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.000.18100.0047.840.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.18100.0085.630.000.13
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.17100.0045.350.00-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.17100.0069.670.000.07
LongwoodBSth0.000.1733.3322.74-0.00-0.09
LibertyBSth0.000.1633.3335.41-0.00-0.05
LSUSEC2.080.1575.0060.551.040.03
MarylandB100.000.15100.0064.500.000.04
AlabamaSEC0.000.15100.0058.780.000.03
MissouriSEC0.000.1566.6749.590.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.1450.0038.370.00-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.1433.3336.55-0.00-0.04
Michigan St.B100.000.1466.6771.600.000.06
MassachusettsA100.000.1475.0060.410.000.03
CharlotteCUSA0.000.12100.0070.030.000.05
JacksonvilleASun0.000.120.0025.03-0.00-0.06
Ohio St.B100.000.12100.0071.340.000.05
Texas A&MSEC0.000.1266.6765.320.000.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1233.3346.93-0.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.120.0033.14-0.00-0.04
MississippiSEC0.000.1266.6755.980.000.01
North FloridaASun0.000.120.0047.13-0.00-0.01
RichmondA100.000.1266.6767.450.000.04
StetsonASun0.000.120.0032.07-0.00-0.04
IndianaB100.000.12100.0062.040.000.03
ManhattanMAAC0.000.1133.3357.45-0.000.02
West VirginiaB120.000.11100.0067.570.000.04
South FloridaAmer0.000.11100.0046.040.00-0.01
WyomingMWC0.000.09100.0070.850.000.04
USC UpstateASun1.560.09100.0051.051.560.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0966.6751.200.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.090.0041.59-0.00-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0933.3321.74-0.00-0.05
NorthwesternB100.000.09100.0042.120.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.090.0024.17-0.00-0.05
DaytonA100.000.0966.6769.640.000.04
BryantNEC0.000.0950.0054.900.000.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.090.0072.02-0.000.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0925.0035.61-0.00-0.03
Iowa St.B120.000.09100.0061.830.000.02
Green BayHorz0.000.090.0067.49-0.000.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0950.0037.890.00-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.090.0056.24-0.000.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0933.3343.68-0.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0975.0063.040.000.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0933.3353.79-0.000.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0933.3364.19-0.000.02
IowaB100.000.0950.0065.570.000.03
Penn St.B100.000.0975.0047.170.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0933.3344.56-0.00-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.090.0034.71-0.00-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.000.090.0025.43-0.00-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.090.0033.68-0.00-0.03
MichiganB100.000.09100.0064.370.000.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0866.6761.350.000.02
NebraskaB100.000.0866.6752.320.000.00
The CitadelSC0.000.080.0028.08-0.00-0.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0875.0071.100.000.04
WoffordSC0.000.0875.0075.140.000.04
ArizonaP120.000.06100.0069.320.000.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.0650.0045.890.00-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.06100.0062.400.000.02
Fresno St.MWC0.000.060.0033.08-0.00-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.000.06100.0080.630.000.04
San Jose St.MWC0.000.060.0017.53-0.00-0.04
UNLVMWC0.000.0675.0053.210.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.0675.0057.480.000.01
College of CharlestonCAA2.080.0625.0056.39-1.040.01
FurmanSC0.000.0633.3325.18-0.00-0.03
HawaiiBW0.000.0675.0054.790.000.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0666.6746.540.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0675.0059.530.000.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.060.0032.70-0.00-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.000.0666.6744.970.00-0.01
IPFWSum0.000.0650.0063.720.000.02
MarquetteBE0.000.0633.3340.91-0.00-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.060.0031.61-0.00-0.02
Seton HallBE2.080.06100.0056.982.080.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0675.0069.830.000.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.060.0037.13-0.00-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.060.0035.36-0.00-0.02
DavidsonA100.000.0650.0053.040.000.00
DetroitHorz0.000.0633.3354.50-0.000.01
DuquesneA100.000.06100.0052.610.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.000.060.0033.55-0.00-0.02
HarvardIvy0.000.0650.0067.960.000.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0625.0035.65-0.00-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.060.0043.84-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0633.3345.85-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0032.69-0.00-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0666.6754.020.000.00
WagnerNEC0.000.060.0045.12-0.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0666.6758.650.000.01
CornellIvy0.000.0640.0040.58-0.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0666.6776.510.000.03
HowardMEAC0.000.060.0035.51-0.00-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0620.0027.80-0.00-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.060.0040.40-0.00-0.01
New HampshireAE0.000.060.0041.97-0.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.06100.0043.160.00-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0625.0051.56-0.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.06100.0063.360.000.02
SamfordSC0.000.0625.0031.88-0.00-0.02
IllinoisB100.000.06100.0067.100.000.02
WisconsinB100.000.06100.0084.890.000.04
CincinnatiAmer0.000.06100.0063.820.000.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.060.0025.50-0.00-0.03
HartfordAE0.000.0675.0042.500.00-0.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0666.6762.810.000.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0666.6766.670.000.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0633.3336.99-0.00-0.01
NavyPat0.000.060.0032.62-0.00-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.06100.0071.440.000.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.06100.0045.990.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.000.06100.0052.540.000.00
UCFAmer0.000.06100.0046.730.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0350.0052.290.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.030.0034.07-0.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0325.0033.97-0.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW2.080.0350.0037.760.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.030.0031.63-0.00-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0333.3335.92-0.00-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0366.6746.620.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.000.0350.0029.910.00-0.01
BaylorB120.000.03100.0069.300.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.03100.0052.590.000.00
BradleyMVC0.000.030.0027.82-0.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0366.6760.610.000.01
ButlerBE0.000.03100.0061.850.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.030.0046.61-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.000.0366.6760.720.000.01
DelawareCAA0.000.030.0029.55-0.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0049.250.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.03100.0072.860.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.03100.0062.070.000.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.030.0057.63-0.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC1.560.0350.0049.760.00-0.00
La SalleA100.000.03100.0053.840.000.00
LafayettePat0.000.0375.0064.270.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.030.0047.90-0.00-0.00
MaineAE0.000.030.0018.23-0.00-0.02
MaristMAAC0.000.030.0034.55-0.00-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0350.0045.600.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0325.0059.16-0.000.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0325.0066.02-0.000.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0333.3324.07-0.00-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.030.0053.10-0.000.00
San DiegoWCC1.560.0366.6748.330.52-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0366.6752.550.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0028.50-0.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0037.22-0.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.000.0366.6746.900.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0366.6753.050.000.00
UABCUSA0.000.030.0043.18-0.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.000.0350.0034.510.00-0.01
USCP120.000.0350.0027.780.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.03100.0073.570.000.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.030.0049.23-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0054.710.000.00
XavierBE0.000.03100.0077.070.000.02
AkronMAC0.000.0366.6763.730.000.01
DrexelCAA0.000.030.0032.23-0.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.03100.0064.090.000.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0366.6758.230.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.03100.0072.420.000.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.030.0028.32-0.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.030.0039.36-0.00-0.01
VMISC0.000.0333.3339.27-0.00-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.030.0063.44-0.000.01
ArmyPat0.000.03100.0066.100.000.01
BucknellPat0.000.0325.0035.71-0.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0350.0044.170.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.000.0333.3341.16-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.03100.0076.190.000.01
ElonCAA0.000.0333.3341.21-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0325.0031.12-0.00-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0320.0026.89-0.00-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0350.0031.980.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.030.0034.81-0.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.03100.0045.790.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.030.0053.00-0.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0325.0040.91-0.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0350.0068.880.000.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0333.3341.92-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.000.0375.0071.090.000.01
TempleAmer0.000.0350.0053.100.000.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0350.0035.040.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0366.6748.790.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0366.6749.370.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.000.03100.0065.270.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0333.3341.77-0.00-0.00