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Through games of Dec 6, 2016.


Clemson

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:72.1
Current RPI:55
Expected SOS:29
Current SOS:44
Current Record:5-2
Expected Record:16-14
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:5-2
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:73
Expected OOC SOS:81



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-68.00.01%
23-714.40.05%
22-820.70.50%
21-925.41.34%
20-1031.84.20%
19-1139.38.69%
18-1249.014.49%
17-1360.817.59%
16-1474.019.38%
15-1589.116.16%
14-16104.610.06%
13-17122.24.80%
12-18139.22.01%
11-19160.10.61%
10-20171.70.09%
9-21170.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Clemson.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Georgia (71.0)SECH74-64W100%0.0
11-17Davidson (68.7)A10N78-95W100%0.0
11-18Xavier (15.9)BEN83-77L0%0.0
11-20Oklahoma (80.5)B12N70-64L0%0.0
11-25High Point (245.0)BSthH83-74W100%0.0
11-30Nebraska (87.2)B10H60-58W100%0.0
12-4Coppin St. (342.9)MEACH85-43W100%0.0
12-10Mercer (185.3)SCH0-090%15.6
12-13South Carolina St. (309.4)MEACH0-099%29.2
12-18Alabama (119.3)SECA0-050%0.1
12-21South Carolina (20.6)SECA0-026%-7.9
12-28UNC Wilmington (48.9)CAAH0-069%5.8
12-31Wake Forest (52.1)ACCA0-041%-2.6
1-3North Carolina (5.1)ACCH0-021%-9.8
1-7Notre Dame (24.1)ACCA0-018%-10.8
1-12Georgia Tech (192.1)ACCA0-068%5.6
1-14Virginia (8.7)ACCH0-024%-8.6
1-19Louisville (7.5)ACCA0-014%-12.7
1-22Virginia Tech (69.4)ACCH0-059%2.6
1-28Pittsburgh (74.1)ACCA0-050%-0.1
2-1Georgia Tech (192.1)ACCH0-084%11.9
2-5Florida St. (35.9)ACCA0-027%-7.5
2-7Syracuse (69.7)ACCH0-050%0.1
2-11Duke (8.4)ACCA0-011%-14.6
2-14Wake Forest (52.1)ACCH0-062%3.6
2-18Miami FL (42.1)ACCA0-025%-8.1
2-21Virginia Tech (69.4)ACCA0-038%-3.6
2-25Florida St. (35.9)ACCH0-046%-1.2
3-1North Carolina St. (110.5)ACCH0-074%7.6
3-4Boston College (233.5)ACCH0-091%16.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Clemson's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Clemson's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Clemson.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ClemsonACC28.3326.0562.9651.447.340.75
Virginia TechACC0.963.9185.7163.280.681.04
Georgia TechACC0.003.8857.1437.260.00-0.99
Wake ForestACC0.003.8877.7855.660.000.44
Florida St.ACC0.003.8588.8967.730.001.37
SyracuseACC0.002.3362.5062.500.000.58
Miami FLACC0.002.3277.7866.450.000.76
North Carolina St.ACC0.002.3075.0051.800.000.08
Boston CollegeACC0.002.3057.1430.450.00-0.90
DukeACC0.002.2990.0079.770.001.37
Notre DameACC0.002.29100.0076.820.001.23
North CarolinaACC0.002.2787.5082.000.001.45
VirginiaACC0.002.2788.8978.510.001.29
LouisvilleACC0.002.2487.5075.360.001.14
PittsburghACC0.002.2475.0048.930.00-0.05
GeorgiaSEC7.141.8366.6753.592.380.13
South CarolinaSEC0.001.81100.0078.310.001.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.001.810.0027.20-0.00-0.82
AlabamaSEC0.001.7557.1451.810.000.06
High PointBSth7.141.7542.8646.53-1.02-0.12
Coppin St.MEAC7.141.730.0017.77-7.14-1.11
DavidsonA107.141.7283.3365.244.760.52
NebraskaB107.141.7266.6746.432.38-0.12
XavierBE7.141.7285.7169.915.100.69
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.001.7083.3378.870.000.98
MercerSC0.511.7042.8649.03-0.07-0.03
OklahomaB127.141.6766.6746.242.38-0.13
FloridaSEC0.000.3077.7872.930.000.14
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.2220.0038.50-0.00-0.05
AuburnSEC0.000.2285.7157.280.000.03
RadfordBSth0.000.2028.5734.49-0.00-0.06
TennesseeSEC0.000.1950.0044.700.00-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.450.1771.4355.570.190.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.1771.4365.470.000.05
KansasB120.510.1788.8977.470.400.09
George WashingtonA100.510.1755.5642.150.06-0.03
MissouriSEC0.960.1762.5044.840.24-0.02
LSUSEC0.000.1771.4347.690.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.000.1775.0047.990.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.1687.5082.220.000.11
VillanovaBE0.000.16100.0084.740.000.11
Gardner WebbBSth0.510.1433.3351.98-0.170.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.140.0034.54-0.00-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.140.0020.63-0.00-0.08
MichiganB100.000.1477.7865.840.000.04
WoffordSC0.000.140.0034.69-0.00-0.04
NorthwesternB100.000.1475.0066.090.000.05
RichmondA100.000.1450.0048.500.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.510.1466.6761.690.170.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.1475.0047.520.00-0.01
Penn St.B100.000.1466.6746.170.00-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.1214.2942.77-0.00-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.450.1225.0041.19-0.22-0.02
FurmanSC0.510.1242.8657.52-0.070.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.1228.5723.02-0.00-0.06
WinthropBSth0.000.1150.0071.340.000.05
VanderbiltSEC0.450.1155.5646.770.05-0.01
The CitadelSC0.000.1150.0030.320.00-0.04
VCUA100.000.1175.0072.930.000.05
VMISC0.000.110.0016.56-0.00-0.08
MonmouthMAAC0.000.1177.7872.210.000.05
IowaB100.000.1144.4438.41-0.00-0.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.400.1125.0038.98-0.20-0.02
SamfordSC0.000.1162.5056.520.000.01
TexasB120.000.1150.0038.730.00-0.03
WisconsinB100.510.1177.7876.550.280.06
TulaneAmer0.510.1112.5023.82-0.38-0.06
CreightonBE0.000.11100.0076.540.000.06
GeorgetownBE0.400.1155.5647.600.04-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.1166.6751.140.000.00
BaylorB120.450.11100.0076.070.450.06
William & MaryCAA0.000.1133.3346.06-0.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.510.1177.7864.250.280.03
Northern IowaMVC1.400.1133.3352.49-0.470.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.1177.7859.940.000.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.090.0036.38-0.00-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.090.0019.08-0.00-0.06
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0912.5031.01-0.00-0.03
CampbellBSth0.000.0942.8639.64-0.00-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.510.0962.5071.850.130.04
Holy CrossPat0.000.0937.5047.44-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0977.7886.650.000.06
DrexelCAA0.450.0950.0041.460.00-0.01
DaytonA100.510.0971.4373.270.220.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0983.3379.920.000.05
Ohio St.B100.000.0977.7862.010.000.02
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0875.0074.590.000.04
Michigan St.B100.000.0860.0058.780.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0866.6770.400.000.03
CharlotteCUSA0.510.0862.5050.630.130.00
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0870.0050.010.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.0840.0058.88-0.000.01
HofstraCAA0.400.0855.5643.870.04-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0887.5069.040.000.03
Iowa St.B120.000.0875.0071.330.000.04
West VirginiaB120.000.0885.7183.250.000.06
Appalachian St.SB0.510.0816.6730.09-0.34-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.450.0833.3352.03-0.150.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.400.0842.8658.24-0.060.01
IndianaB100.000.0887.5074.510.000.04
MinnesotaB100.000.0888.8966.920.000.03
PurdueB100.000.0877.7877.640.000.05
ElonCAA0.000.0862.5054.660.000.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0888.8956.710.000.01
MaineAE0.000.0814.2923.40-0.00-0.04
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0871.4354.010.000.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0842.8653.80-0.000.01
Seton HallBE0.000.0875.0054.480.000.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0842.8637.05-0.00-0.02
St. John'sBE0.000.0844.4436.20-0.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0612.5037.11-0.00-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0022.47-0.00-0.03
HowardMEAC0.000.0616.6743.53-0.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0662.5060.090.000.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0662.5074.160.000.03
LibertyBSth0.000.0628.5746.79-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0620.0021.92-0.00-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0628.5724.39-0.00-0.03
AkronMAC0.000.0671.4368.930.000.02
FordhamA100.000.0650.0041.640.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0662.5046.490.00-0.00
La SalleA100.000.0657.1456.540.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.890.0657.1459.020.130.01
Ball St.MAC0.400.0650.0050.170.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.510.0657.1472.530.070.03
RutgersB100.000.0687.5050.250.000.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0625.0023.99-0.00-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.000.0675.0070.350.000.02
ValparaisoHorz0.400.0685.7175.250.280.03
DuquesneA100.000.0640.0039.19-0.00-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0642.8643.55-0.00-0.01
HartfordAE0.000.0622.2226.44-0.00-0.03
MarylandB100.000.0687.5059.030.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0642.8645.34-0.00-0.01
UtahP120.400.0680.0058.220.240.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0032.29-0.00-0.02
BucknellPat0.000.0670.0070.530.000.02
DelawareCAA0.000.0650.0041.700.00-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0612.5030.17-0.00-0.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0675.0056.270.000.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0662.5058.130.000.01
OhioMAC0.000.0683.3371.500.000.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0057.950.000.01
TCUB120.000.06100.0060.950.000.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0625.0027.74-0.00-0.02
Texas TechB120.000.0687.5061.660.000.01
UMBCAE0.000.0680.0054.190.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.0620.0035.46-0.00-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.0644.4443.25-0.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0550.0050.980.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0550.0045.130.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0512.5034.49-0.00-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0512.5026.05-0.00-0.03
YaleIvy0.000.0542.8663.63-0.000.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0542.8655.07-0.000.01
ButlerBE0.000.05100.0074.830.000.03
ColgatePat0.000.0512.5030.11-0.00-0.02
ColoradoP120.000.0575.0062.450.000.01
DePaulBE0.000.0571.4337.680.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.000.050.0021.30-0.00-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0550.0056.080.000.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0562.5055.890.000.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0557.1464.540.000.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.050.0038.43-0.00-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0522.2232.01-0.00-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0520.0017.37-0.00-0.04
TempleAmer0.000.0575.0064.820.000.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0585.7169.920.000.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0089.590.000.02
NavyPat0.450.0333.3338.56-0.15-0.01
Arizona St.P120.510.0355.5637.870.06-0.01
BYUWCC0.400.0362.5067.080.100.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0325.0030.02-0.00-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0316.6729.83-0.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0371.4358.170.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0311.1149.12-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.510.030.0022.30-0.51-0.02
South DakotaSum0.510.0350.0046.820.00-0.00
UCLAP120.510.03100.0086.650.510.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.510.0340.0054.81-0.100.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0375.0066.120.000.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0387.5064.760.000.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0342.8643.78-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.000.0314.2935.05-0.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0328.5738.92-0.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0325.0031.76-0.00-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0371.4363.080.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0387.5075.730.000.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.510.0316.6740.32-0.34-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.510.0320.0042.14-0.31-0.00
OaklandHorz0.000.0385.7177.000.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.030.0022.75-0.00-0.02
OregonP120.000.0375.0072.800.000.01
PennIvy0.000.0333.3356.66-0.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0330.0045.49-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0357.1433.200.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.0366.6758.600.000.00
StetsonASun0.000.0325.0026.46-0.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0337.5047.57-0.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.0344.4441.55-0.00-0.00
VermontAE0.000.0362.5071.400.000.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0316.6735.90-0.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.0322.2246.51-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.0320.0022.08-0.00-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0387.5082.440.000.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0342.8644.90-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.000.0328.5730.43-0.00-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0020.72-0.00-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0371.4355.680.000.00
Fort WayneSum0.000.0362.5070.890.000.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0333.3349.39-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0342.8650.82-0.000.00
LehighPat0.450.0337.5061.81-0.110.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0371.4358.830.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.000.0342.8645.85-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.000.0344.4434.60-0.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0362.5053.550.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0017.92-0.00-0.02
MontanaBSky0.000.0325.0048.70-0.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0316.6738.87-0.00-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0337.5050.92-0.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0362.5066.500.000.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0375.0070.570.000.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0357.1450.790.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0344.4438.15-0.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0357.1450.860.000.00
SeattleWAC0.000.0316.6738.83-0.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0366.6766.650.000.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0357.1449.420.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.0337.5043.19-0.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0350.0066.380.000.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0362.5042.780.00-0.00