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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Gonzaga

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:10.2
Current RPI:8
Expected SOS:70
Current SOS:43
Current Record:7-0
Expected Record:27-3
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:16-2
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:10-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-0
Current OOC Record:7-0
Expected OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC RPI:8
Expected OOC SOS:33



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
30-03.44.05%
29-15.316.65%
28-27.526.67%
27-310.726.06%
26-414.116.20%
25-518.57.41%
24-623.52.22%
23-729.30.59%
22-838.50.13%
21-950.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Gonzaga.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Utah Valley (129.4)WACH92-69W100%0.0
11-14San Diego St. (47.5)MWCH69-48W100%0.0
11-18Bryant (194.6)NECH109-70W100%0.0
11-24Quinnipiac (268.6)MAACN62-82W100%0.0
11-25Florida (9.6)SECN72-77W100%0.0
11-27Iowa St. (31.7)B12N73-71W100%0.0
12-1Mississippi Valley St. (315.8)SWACH97-63W100%0.0
12-3Arizona (28.2)P12N0-067%5.4
12-7Washington (105.3)P12H0-088%14.2
12-10Akron (74.5)MACH0-091%15.8
12-18Tennessee (165.2)SECN0-092%16.6
12-21South Dakota (218.7)SumH0-098%25.6
12-29Pepperdine (185.5)WCCH0-098%25.1
12-31Pacific (155.8)WCCA0-090%15.6
1-5San Francisco (170.5)WCCA0-092%17.1
1-7Portland (108.8)WCCA0-084%12.1
1-12Loyola Marymount (169.7)WCCH0-097%21.8
1-14Saint Mary's (14.7)WCCH0-069%5.8
1-19Santa Clara (214.8)WCCA0-093%18.1
1-21Portland (108.8)WCCH0-094%18.2
1-26San Diego (251.2)WCCH0-099%29.4
1-28Pepperdine (185.5)WCCA0-094%19.0
2-2BYU (66.1)WCCA0-071%6.7
2-4Santa Clara (214.8)WCCH0-098%24.3
2-9Loyola Marymount (169.7)WCCA0-090%15.6
2-11Saint Mary's (14.7)WCCA0-049%-0.4
2-16San Francisco (170.5)WCCH0-097%23.2
2-18Pacific (155.8)WCCH0-097%21.8
2-23San Diego (251.2)WCCA0-097%23.3
2-25BYU (66.1)WCCH0-086%12.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Gonzaga's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Gonzaga's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Gonzaga.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
GonzagaWCC29.0726.36100.0090.7229.0721.47
BYUWCC0.714.2871.4371.910.311.88
PortlandWCC0.004.2760.0060.470.000.89
San DiegoWCC0.894.2728.5729.41-0.38-1.76
Santa ClaraWCC0.004.2737.5038.52-0.00-0.98
PacificWCC0.004.2550.0052.040.000.17
PepperdineWCC0.004.2450.0037.560.00-1.06
Saint Mary'sWCC0.004.24100.0092.570.003.61
Loyola MarymountWCC0.004.2433.3348.60-0.00-0.12
San FranciscoWCC0.004.2483.3354.250.000.36
ArizonaP120.001.7885.7172.260.000.79
San Diego St.MWC7.141.72100.0077.877.140.96
South DakotaSum0.001.7257.1448.850.00-0.04
Utah ValleyWAC7.141.7275.0061.313.570.39
WashingtonP120.001.7257.1454.030.000.14
FloridaSEC7.141.69100.0077.837.140.94
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC7.141.690.0025.60-7.14-0.83
Iowa St.B127.141.6983.3371.354.760.72
TennesseeSEC0.001.6925.0035.37-0.00-0.50
AkronMAC0.001.6783.3372.000.000.73
BryantNEC7.141.6733.3351.93-2.380.06
QuinnipiacMAAC7.141.6720.0035.49-4.29-0.48
USCP120.000.28100.0075.380.000.14
UCLAP120.000.28100.0083.550.000.19
NevadaMWC0.000.2675.0070.470.000.11
Portland St.BSky0.000.2325.0040.37-0.00-0.04
San Jose St.MWC0.000.2340.0037.44-0.00-0.06
UC IrvineBW0.000.2250.0054.690.000.02
Washington St.P120.710.2050.0036.820.00-0.05
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.2016.6730.02-0.00-0.08
VanderbiltSEC0.000.1957.1448.860.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.000.1971.4359.850.000.04
UtahP120.000.1775.0061.040.000.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1550.0056.260.000.02
Utah St.MWC0.000.1550.0053.560.000.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.1550.0058.980.000.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.1450.0059.670.000.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.140.0021.30-0.00-0.08
Weber St.BSky0.000.1420.0054.94-0.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.140.0033.43-0.00-0.05
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.1414.2928.15-0.00-0.06
Arizona St.P120.000.1457.1436.050.00-0.04
StanfordP120.000.1475.0059.100.000.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.1442.8638.05-0.00-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1271.4368.100.000.04
Colorado St.MWC0.000.1283.3361.490.000.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.1225.0024.28-0.00-0.06
SeattleWAC0.000.1220.0042.63-0.00-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.000.1260.0039.610.00-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.120.0033.44-0.00-0.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.1257.1464.940.000.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.1216.6743.29-0.00-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.110.0032.39-0.00-0.04
Kent St.MAC0.400.1150.0051.820.000.00
DaytonA100.000.1166.6772.440.000.05
CaliforniaP120.890.1183.3363.610.600.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.1116.6732.62-0.00-0.04
TCUB120.000.11100.0059.480.000.02
RiderMAAC0.000.1150.0047.990.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.000.1128.5723.76-0.00-0.06
KentuckySEC0.000.11100.0086.250.000.08
South CarolinaSEC0.000.11100.0080.780.000.07
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1185.7174.430.000.05
UMKCWAC0.000.0971.4356.050.000.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0950.0042.710.00-0.01
DenverSum0.710.0933.3341.11-0.24-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.000.0971.4358.670.000.02
UC DavisBW0.000.0957.1448.410.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.510.0966.6751.460.170.00
WyomingMWC0.000.0960.0048.590.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0933.3343.64-0.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0966.6756.360.000.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0914.2947.44-0.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.710.0914.2929.81-0.51-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.000.0933.3335.92-0.00-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.090.0039.35-0.00-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0933.3348.73-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.000.0980.0068.320.000.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0942.8634.17-0.00-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0916.6736.45-0.00-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0814.2934.56-0.00-0.03
BelmontOVC0.450.0840.0061.37-0.090.02
Fort WayneSum0.400.0866.6770.930.130.04
Little RockSB0.000.0860.0057.900.000.01
St. BonaventureA100.450.0866.6770.740.150.03
DrakeMVC0.000.080.0021.30-0.00-0.05
Kansas St.B120.000.0885.7155.890.000.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.510.0812.5048.98-0.38-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.080.0018.22-0.00-0.05
MississippiSEC0.000.0871.4346.010.00-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0871.4343.020.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0816.6740.71-0.00-0.02
OklahomaB120.000.0883.3351.920.000.00
OregonP120.000.0871.4366.730.000.03
West VirginiaB120.400.0883.3380.550.260.05
ArkansasSEC0.000.0883.3362.840.000.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0866.6754.380.000.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0850.0045.920.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0866.6766.100.000.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0857.1467.020.000.03
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0017.30-0.00-0.04
UTSACUSA0.000.0628.5728.46-0.00-0.03
UNLVMWC0.000.0671.4349.590.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0625.0053.29-0.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0633.3338.76-0.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0650.0050.290.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.060.0037.92-0.00-0.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0660.0043.970.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0616.6737.09-0.00-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.000.060.0023.26-0.00-0.03
TroySB0.000.0633.3332.23-0.00-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC1.400.060.0024.19-1.40-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0616.6731.91-0.00-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0640.0050.91-0.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0650.0055.850.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.0628.5747.72-0.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0666.6761.340.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0650.0033.010.00-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.000.0650.0062.460.000.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0642.8637.25-0.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0650.0061.810.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0640.0030.80-0.00-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.060.0019.30-0.00-0.04
SamfordSC0.000.0657.1455.810.000.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0027.77-0.00-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0614.2937.52-0.00-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.06100.0069.770.000.02
UABCUSA0.000.0657.1461.940.000.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.060.0022.69-0.00-0.03
MercerSC0.450.0650.0053.050.000.00
BaylorB120.000.06100.0074.460.000.03
BrownIvy0.510.0650.0042.420.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0633.3341.52-0.00-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0683.3362.080.000.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0620.0034.22-0.00-0.02
Indiana St.MVC1.110.0633.3346.81-0.37-0.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0660.0070.140.000.02
KansasB120.000.0685.7176.170.000.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0683.3357.990.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0633.3338.19-0.00-0.01
MaristMAAC0.000.0642.8635.68-0.00-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.600.0671.4371.570.260.02
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0616.6727.03-0.00-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0625.0039.28-0.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0660.0052.760.000.00
SienaMAAC0.000.0628.5750.51-0.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0616.6729.36-0.00-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0640.0043.86-0.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0683.3370.360.000.02
TexasB120.000.0650.0036.240.00-0.02
Texas TechB120.000.0685.7163.780.000.02
WagnerNEC0.000.0633.3353.85-0.000.00
YaleIvy0.510.0633.3364.14-0.170.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0640.0037.65-0.00-0.01
Green BayHorz0.000.0633.3348.71-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0628.5730.29-0.00-0.02
MassachusettsA100.000.0683.3358.080.000.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0024.32-0.00-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0683.3356.560.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0566.6756.020.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0583.3355.200.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.0571.4349.770.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.960.0571.4365.740.410.02
NorthwesternB100.910.0571.4366.220.390.02
Seton HallBE1.040.0571.4354.520.450.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.050.0013.30-0.00-0.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.050.0024.25-0.00-0.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0528.5739.44-0.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0528.5734.18-0.00-0.02
IllinoisB100.000.0557.1442.660.00-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.050.0042.55-0.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.400.0550.0061.590.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0525.0063.95-0.000.02
Saint LouisA100.000.0533.3326.75-0.00-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.000.0525.0056.92-0.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0366.6754.420.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0333.3323.33-0.00-0.02
AmericanPat0.000.0316.6735.65-0.00-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0350.0052.330.000.00
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0076.650.000.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0350.0045.410.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0357.1440.550.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0383.3376.370.000.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0383.3359.600.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0350.0043.610.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0342.8645.30-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.000.0333.3336.31-0.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0342.8650.36-0.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0342.8637.60-0.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0320.0036.00-0.00-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0366.6769.810.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.510.0385.7180.960.360.02
ColumbiaIvy0.600.0342.8642.47-0.09-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0023.47-0.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0342.8636.82-0.00-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0383.3380.700.000.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.0366.6739.720.00-0.01
HartfordAE0.000.0312.5022.55-0.00-0.02
HarvardIvy0.000.030.0043.04-0.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.0342.8647.69-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.000.0342.8644.33-0.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.000.0314.2933.07-0.00-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.510.0320.0032.60-0.31-0.01
MaineAE0.000.0316.6725.61-0.00-0.01
NavyPat0.000.0328.5743.62-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.000.0350.0057.480.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.0385.7180.010.000.02
Notre DameACC0.510.03100.0075.010.510.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0333.3327.13-0.00-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0314.2928.66-0.00-0.01
The CitadelSC0.510.0340.0027.05-0.10-0.01
VermontAE0.600.0362.5071.630.150.01
WisconsinB100.000.0375.0073.840.000.01
ButlerBE0.000.03100.0075.690.000.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0366.6751.090.000.00
DukeACC0.000.0387.5078.680.000.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.450.0350.0071.330.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0385.7162.410.000.01
IndianaB100.400.0383.3375.060.260.01
LibertyBSth0.400.0340.0050.71-0.080.00
North FloridaASun0.450.0314.2931.71-0.32-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.400.0325.0040.81-0.20-0.00