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Through games of Feb 11, 2016.


Gonzaga

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:48.7
Current RPI:62
Expected SOS:114
Current SOS:124
Current Record:19-5
Expected Record:22-7
Current Conf Record:12-2
Expected Conf Record:15-3
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-0
Current OOC Record:7-3
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:64
Expected OOC SOS:27



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-533.411.16%
23-642.838.48%
22-753.537.54%
21-865.012.07%
20-974.50.71%
19-1087.70.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Gonzaga.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-18Northern Arizona (325.6)BSkyH91-52W100%0.0
11-21Mount St. Mary's (229.4)NECH101-56W100%0.0
11-25Washington (65.3)P12N64-80W100%0.0
11-26Texas A&M (27.5)SECN61-62L0%0.0
11-27Connecticut (41.1)AmerN73-70W100%0.0
12-2Washington St. (186.2)P12A60-69W100%0.0
12-5Arizona (27.2)P12H63-68L0%0.0
12-8Montana (145.3)BSkyH61-58W100%0.0
12-12UCLA (68.2)P12H66-71L0%0.0
12-19Tennessee (112.5)SECH86-79W100%0.0
12-21Pepperdine (109.4)WCCH99-73W100%0.0
12-23Loyola Marymount (230.8)WCCH85-62W100%0.0
12-31Santa Clara (261.6)WCCA77-79W100%0.0
1-2San Francisco (230.8)WCCA94-102W100%0.0
1-9Portland (244.8)WCCH85-74W100%0.0
1-14BYU (69.9)WCCH68-69L0%0.0
1-16San Diego (295.3)WCCH88-52W100%0.0
1-21Saint Mary's (57.3)WCCA70-67L0%0.0
1-23Pacific (253.9)WCCA61-71W100%0.0
1-28Santa Clara (261.6)WCCH84-67W100%0.0
1-30San Francisco (230.8)WCCH86-48W100%0.0
2-4Loyola Marymount (230.8)WCCA63-92W100%0.0
2-6Pepperdine (109.4)WCCA66-69W100%0.0
2-11Portland (244.8)WCCA66-92W100%0.0
2-13SMU (16.4)AmerA0-034%-4.5
2-18Pacific (253.9)WCCH0-098%21.4
2-20Saint Mary's (57.3)WCCH0-065%4.3
2-25San Diego (295.3)WCCA0-095%18.4
2-27BYU (69.9)WCCA0-055%1.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Gonzaga's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Gonzaga's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Gonzaga.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
GonzagaWCC26.5026.4275.4275.2913.4713.37
PepperdineWCC5.014.4963.6465.581.371.40
San FranciscoWCC4.954.4657.1452.930.710.26
Santa ClaraWCC4.954.4636.3634.42-1.35-1.39
PacificWCC2.914.4525.0028.06-1.46-1.95
BYUWCC2.974.4466.6770.110.991.78
PortlandWCC5.054.4441.6740.75-0.84-0.82
Loyola MarymountWCC4.914.4345.4544.35-0.45-0.50
San DiegoWCC2.974.4331.8230.20-1.08-1.75
Saint Mary'sWCC2.874.4280.9582.941.782.91
ArizonaP122.492.0578.2677.571.411.13
UCLAP122.391.9654.5551.840.220.07
WashingtonP122.401.9665.2262.220.730.48
MontanaBSky2.351.9463.1665.220.620.59
Washington St.P122.351.9236.3632.77-0.64-0.66
Northern ArizonaBSky2.221.8510.0012.56-1.78-1.38
ConnecticutAmer2.081.7873.9172.471.000.80
SMUAmer0.001.7886.9683.510.001.19
Mount St. Mary'sNEC2.131.7544.0047.66-0.26-0.08
TennesseeSEC2.131.7552.1749.730.09-0.01
Texas A&MSEC2.131.7573.9174.521.020.86
Cal St. FullertonBW0.390.3433.3330.63-0.13-0.13
ColoradoP120.260.3270.8365.580.110.10
USCP120.360.2978.2673.130.200.13
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.350.2731.8230.08-0.13-0.11
Arizona St.P120.310.2654.1751.700.030.01
UC IrvineBW0.270.2569.5770.020.110.10
Boise St.MWC0.360.2460.8760.440.080.05
StanfordP120.090.2347.6244.06-0.00-0.03
UtahP120.170.2370.8368.520.070.09
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.290.2254.5555.550.030.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.230.2240.0045.20-0.05-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.270.2263.6461.550.070.05
Weber St.BSky0.170.2166.6769.750.060.08
CaliforniaP120.090.2166.6764.780.030.06
Oregon St.P120.180.2063.6458.760.050.04
Southern UtahBSky0.200.1914.2914.91-0.14-0.14
Portland St.BSky0.230.1930.0035.92-0.09-0.05
Idaho St.BSky0.180.1847.6248.04-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.170.1838.1035.34-0.04-0.05
UC RiversideBW0.260.1845.8341.63-0.02-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.220.1747.8351.92-0.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.180.1523.8122.86-0.10-0.08
TulsaAmer0.090.1566.6764.700.030.04
OregonP120.090.1479.1777.200.050.08
Montana St.BSky0.150.1343.4844.83-0.02-0.01
IdahoBSky0.200.1356.5255.340.030.01
NevadaMWC0.140.1357.1455.360.020.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.090.1233.3334.95-0.03-0.04
DenverSum0.130.1252.0049.300.01-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.140.1228.5734.11-0.06-0.04
Colorado St.MWC0.170.1254.5552.530.020.01
CincinnatiAmer0.040.1172.0071.570.020.05
HoustonAmer0.040.1170.8367.980.020.04
TexasB120.170.1166.6762.200.060.03
TulaneAmer0.090.1136.0034.84-0.02-0.03
MemphisAmer0.090.1158.3359.310.010.02
ArkansasSEC0.130.1150.0052.940.000.01
KentuckySEC0.090.1175.0072.610.040.05
MissouriSEC0.090.1133.3330.28-0.03-0.04
VanderbiltSEC0.090.1158.3359.970.010.02
North DakotaBSky0.100.1045.0048.13-0.01-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.100.1027.2726.45-0.05-0.05
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.100.1066.6767.670.030.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.130.0945.4551.69-0.010.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.130.0960.0062.250.030.02
New MexicoMWC0.090.0958.3360.710.010.02
Northern IowaMVC0.090.0956.0055.450.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.040.0941.6739.49-0.01-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0920.0019.73-0.00-0.05
TCUB120.090.0945.8339.36-0.01-0.02
TempleAmer0.090.0865.2262.370.030.02
UCFAmer0.040.0850.0044.650.00-0.01
AuburnSEC0.090.0839.1335.45-0.02-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.080.0812.5013.27-0.06-0.06
LSUSEC0.040.0862.5059.080.010.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.0843.4843.77-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.120.0833.3336.31-0.04-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.090.0886.9680.420.060.05
Green BayHorz0.050.0756.5257.700.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0645.4543.23-0.00-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.090.0660.8757.130.020.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.0614.2920.64-0.06-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.069.0912.26-0.07-0.05
DrakeMVC0.090.0620.8323.28-0.05-0.03
DrexelCAA0.050.0613.0416.42-0.03-0.04
DuquesneA100.090.0660.8756.270.020.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.090.069.5210.67-0.07-0.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.090.0624.0024.16-0.05-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0645.8343.78-0.00-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.090.0647.8350.89-0.000.00
RiceCUSA0.090.0627.2728.16-0.04-0.03
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0669.5770.090.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.090.0613.0415.26-0.06-0.04
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0631.8232.68-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.100.0682.6179.200.060.04
HamptonMEAC0.050.0659.0961.280.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0624.0025.68-0.05-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0629.1726.69-0.04-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.090.0672.0073.080.040.03
LipscombASun0.090.0628.0030.49-0.04-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.090.0660.8762.470.020.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.080.0635.0034.83-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0640.0040.34-0.02-0.01
BelmontOVC0.040.0668.0066.640.010.02
Central MichiganMAC0.040.0647.6249.39-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.040.0635.0038.57-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.040.0620.0022.25-0.02-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0673.0872.610.040.03
Utah St.MWC0.040.0647.6249.28-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.040.0670.8366.750.020.02
New HampshireAE0.040.0659.0956.870.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.090.0660.8755.980.020.01
BryantNEC0.040.0624.0024.92-0.02-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.040.0652.1753.720.000.00
FloridaSEC0.090.0666.6766.320.030.02
FurmanSC0.080.0656.0054.430.010.00
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0659.0955.160.020.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.080.0650.0051.280.000.00
MarylandB100.080.0687.5083.660.060.04
MississippiSEC0.000.0662.5058.940.000.01
Ohio St.B100.080.0660.0055.560.020.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0626.9228.60-0.04-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.040.0640.0043.49-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.040.0652.1751.830.000.00
SyracuseACC0.090.0668.0064.090.030.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.090.0662.5063.450.020.01
UNLVMWC0.090.0652.1755.070.000.01
WagnerNEC0.080.0660.8762.520.020.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0360.8759.830.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0386.3684.220.040.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0343.4850.64-0.010.00
OklahomaB120.050.0386.9682.620.030.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0345.4554.18-0.000.00
Texas St.SB0.050.0340.0038.88-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.050.0354.1754.200.000.00
BrownIvy0.000.0331.5831.01-0.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.040.0337.5042.32-0.01-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.0365.2260.600.000.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0318.1821.11-0.00-0.02
OaklandHorz0.040.0365.3865.510.010.01
PennIvy0.040.0338.8937.69-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0345.0049.27-0.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.040.0347.6245.02-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.000.0373.6874.620.000.01
AmericanPat0.040.0329.1731.19-0.02-0.01
ArmyPat0.040.0354.1754.290.000.00
BaylorB120.040.0373.9168.450.020.01
BinghamtonAE0.040.0324.0026.44-0.02-0.01
BradleyMVC0.040.0312.0011.95-0.03-0.02
BucknellPat0.040.0352.1754.940.000.00
ButlerBE0.040.0370.8369.000.020.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.040.0360.8760.240.010.01
ElonCAA0.040.0350.0050.070.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.040.0326.0927.89-0.02-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.040.0350.0052.870.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.040.0343.4845.21-0.01-0.00
George WashingtonA100.040.0375.0071.960.020.01
GeorgetownBE0.040.0356.0052.870.010.00
Georgia TechACC0.040.0354.1752.000.000.00
Iowa St.B120.040.0370.8367.970.020.01
James MadisonCAA0.040.0372.0071.320.020.01
Kansas St.B120.040.0358.3356.290.010.00
LehighPat0.040.0339.1342.83-0.01-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.040.0333.3335.18-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.040.0332.0031.16-0.02-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.040.0350.0051.110.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0322.2231.22-0.03-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0380.0081.160.030.02
NebraskaB100.040.0352.0050.760.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.050.0383.3378.380.030.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.040.0317.6526.67-0.03-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.040.0372.0069.130.020.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.040.0314.2924.90-0.03-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.040.0368.1865.170.020.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.040.0376.1972.370.020.01
UMass LowellAE0.040.0337.5037.69-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.040.0323.0825.87-0.02-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.040.0321.7422.42-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0341.6739.90-0.01-0.01