Gonzaga

Conference:	WCC
Expected RPI:	21.0
Current RPI:	21
Expected SOS:	125
Current SOS:	125
Current Record:	30-4
Expected Record:	30-4
Current Conf Record:	20-1
Expected Conf Record:	20-1
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	8-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	14-0
Current OOC Record:	10-3
Expected OOC Record:	10-3
Expected OOC RPI:	36
Expected OOC SOS:	87

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
30-4	21.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Gonzaga.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Texas Southern (222.0)	SWAC	H	97-69	W	100%
11-14	Howard (339.0)	MEAC	H	106-69	W	100%
11-18	Utah St. (152.0)	MWC	H	79-66	W	100%
11-23	Ohio St. (20.0)	B10	N	86-59	W	100%
11-24	Florida (46.0)	SEC	N	105-111	L	0%
11-26	Texas (51.0)	B12	N	76-71	W	100%
11-29	Incarnate Word (347.0)	Slnd	H	103-68	W	100%
12-1	Creighton (44.0)	BE	H	91-74	W	100%
12-5	Villanova (2.0)	BE	N	72-88	L	0%
12-10	Washington (71.0)	P12	A	70-97	W	100%
12-16	North Dakota (221.0)	BSky	H	89-83	W	100%
12-18	IUPUI (294.0)	Horz	H	101-71	W	100%
12-21	San Diego St. (62.0)	MWC	A	72-70	L	0%
12-28	Pacific (190.0)	WCC	H	81-48	W	100%
12-30	Santa Clara (264.0)	WCC	H	101-52	W	100%
1-4	Pepperdine (317.0)	WCC	A	59-89	W	100%
1-6	Loyola Marymount (258.0)	WCC	A	66-85	W	100%
1-11	Portland (285.0)	WCC	H	103-57	W	100%
1-13	San Francisco (139.0)	WCC	A	65-75	W	100%
1-18	Saint Mary's (40.0)	WCC	H	71-74	L	0%
1-20	Santa Clara (264.0)	WCC	A	60-75	W	100%
1-25	Portland (285.0)	WCC	A	79-95	W	100%
1-27	San Francisco (139.0)	WCC	H	82-73	W	100%
2-1	San Diego (143.0)	WCC	H	69-59	W	100%
2-3	BYU (67.0)	WCC	H	68-60	W	100%
2-8	Pacific (190.0)	WCC	A	61-71	W	100%
2-10	Saint Mary's (40.0)	WCC	A	65-78	W	100%
2-15	Loyola Marymount (258.0)	WCC	H	76-46	W	100%
2-17	Pepperdine (317.0)	WCC	H	81-67	W	100%
2-22	San Diego (143.0)	WCC	A	72-77	W	100%
2-24	BYU (67.0)	WCC	A	65-79	W	100%
3-3	Loyola Marymount (258.0)	WCC	N	83-69	W	100%
3-5	San Francisco (139.0)	WCC	N	88-60	W	100%
3-6	BYU (67.0)	WCC	N	74-54	W	100%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Gonzaga's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Gonzaga's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Gonzaga.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Gonzaga	WCC	26.51	26.51	87.50	87.50	19.88	19.88
BYU	WCC	5.41	5.41	77.42	77.42	2.97	2.97
Loyola Marymount	WCC	5.36	5.36	37.04	37.04	-1.39	-1.39
San Francisco	WCC	5.32	5.32	58.62	58.62	0.92	0.92
Saint Mary's	WCC	3.96	3.96	87.10	87.10	2.94	2.94
Pepperdine	WCC	3.94	3.94	17.24	17.24	-2.58	-2.58
San Diego	WCC	3.93	3.93	60.71	60.71	0.84	0.84
Pacific	WCC	3.91	3.91	44.83	44.83	-0.40	-0.40
Portland	WCC	3.91	3.91	25.93	25.93	-1.88	-1.88
Santa Clara	WCC	3.88	3.88	37.04	37.04	-1.01	-1.01
Incarnate Word	Slnd	1.57	1.57	13.04	13.04	-1.16	-1.16
Utah St.	MWC	1.56	1.56	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas Southern	SWAC	1.56	1.56	45.45	45.45	-0.14	-0.14
Washington	P12	1.54	1.54	64.52	64.52	0.45	0.45
San Diego St.	MWC	1.54	1.54	66.67	66.67	0.51	0.51
Creighton	BE	1.54	1.54	66.67	66.67	0.51	0.51
Villanova	BE	1.52	1.52	87.88	87.88	1.15	1.15
Florida	SEC	1.50	1.50	61.29	61.29	0.34	0.34
North Dakota	BSky	1.49	1.49	34.48	34.48	-0.46	-0.46
Ohio St.	B10	1.49	1.49	77.42	77.42	0.82	0.82
Howard	MEAC	1.47	1.47	26.67	26.67	-0.69	-0.69
IUPUI	Horz	1.47	1.47	33.33	33.33	-0.49	-0.49
Texas	B12	1.47	1.47	59.38	59.38	0.28	0.28
San Jose St.	MWC	0.29	0.29	10.34	10.34	-0.23	-0.23
Nevada	MWC	0.28	0.28	79.41	79.41	0.17	0.17
Boise St.	MWC	0.24	0.24	73.33	73.33	0.11	0.11
Portland St.	BSky	0.22	0.22	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.21	0.21	16.67	16.67	-0.14	-0.14
Stanford	P12	0.21	0.21	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.19	0.19	40.00	40.00	-0.04	-0.04
UC Davis	BW	0.19	0.19	66.67	66.67	0.06	0.06
Weber St.	BSky	0.18	0.18	60.71	60.71	0.04	0.04
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.17	0.17	62.07	62.07	0.04	0.04
UC Riverside	BW	0.17	0.17	24.14	24.14	-0.09	-0.09
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.17	0.17	70.00	70.00	0.07	0.07
Arizona St.	P12	0.16	0.16	64.52	64.52	0.05	0.05
UT Arlington	SB	0.16	0.16	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Washington St.	P12	0.16	0.16	38.71	38.71	-0.04	-0.04
Wyoming	MWC	0.16	0.16	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Providence	BE	0.16	0.16	61.76	61.76	0.04	0.04
Butler	BE	0.16	0.16	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Oregon St.	P12	0.14	0.14	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
DePaul	BE	0.14	0.14	35.48	35.48	-0.04	-0.04
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.14	0.14	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.14	0.14	34.48	34.48	-0.04	-0.04
UNLV	MWC	0.14	0.14	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Alabama	SEC	0.13	0.13	55.88	55.88	0.02	0.02
Utah	P12	0.13	0.13	63.33	63.33	0.04	0.04
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.13	0.13	12.50	12.50	-0.10	-0.10
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.13	0.13	32.00	32.00	-0.05	-0.05
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.12	0.12	13.33	13.33	-0.09	-0.09
Seattle	WAC	0.12	0.12	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Long Beach St.	BW	0.12	0.12	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Fresno St.	MWC	0.12	0.12	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
Georgetown	BE	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
New Mexico	MWC	0.11	0.11	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
California	P12	0.11	0.11	25.81	25.81	-0.06	-0.06
Georgia	SEC	0.11	0.11	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Idaho St.	BSky	0.11	0.11	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.11	0.11	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Baylor	B12	0.11	0.11	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.11	0.11	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Oakland	Horz	0.10	0.10	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Idaho	BSky	0.10	0.10	68.97	68.97	0.04	0.04
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Cal Poly	BW	0.10	0.10	24.14	24.14	-0.05	-0.05
Montana	BSky	0.10	0.10	77.42	77.42	0.05	0.05
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.10	0.10	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Montana St.	BSky	0.10	0.10	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Oklahoma	B12	0.10	0.10	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Colorado	P12	0.09	0.09	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.09	0.09	83.33	83.33	0.06	0.06
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.09	0.09	24.24	24.24	-0.05	-0.05
Colorado St.	MWC	0.09	0.09	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.09	0.09	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Radford	BSth	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
St. John's	BE	0.09	0.09	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Xavier	BE	0.09	0.09	84.85	84.85	0.06	0.06
Utah Valley	WAC	0.09	0.09	65.52	65.52	0.03	0.03
Kansas	B12	0.09	0.09	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.08	0.08	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.07	0.07	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
North Carolina	ACC	0.07	0.07	71.43	71.43	0.03	0.03
USC	P12	0.07	0.07	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.07	0.07	14.29	14.29	-0.05	-0.05
Valparaiso	MVC	0.07	0.07	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.07	0.07	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Utah	BSky	0.07	0.07	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.07	0.07	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.07	0.07	16.67	16.67	-0.05	-0.05
Belmont	OVC	0.07	0.07	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Texas A&M	SEC	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Indiana	B10	0.07	0.07	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Penn St.	B10	0.07	0.07	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Michigan	B10	0.07	0.07	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
Clemson	ACC	0.07	0.07	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Oregon	P12	0.07	0.07	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
New Hampshire	AE	0.07	0.07	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.07	0.07	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
UC Irvine	BW	0.07	0.07	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.07	0.07	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
TCU	B12	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Illinois St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Massachusetts	A10	0.06	0.06	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.06	0.06	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.06	0.06	10.71	10.71	-0.05	-0.05
Lamar	Slnd	0.06	0.06	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
New Orleans	Slnd	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.04	0.04
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.06	0.06	30.77	30.77	-0.02	-0.02
UTEP	CUSA	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	8.00	8.00	-0.04	-0.04
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	32.35	32.35	-0.02	-0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Green Bay	Horz	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.05	0.05	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Hartford	AE	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.05	82.35	82.35	0.03	0.03
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
North Texas	CUSA	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Texas St.	SB	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Rutgers	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Penn	Ivy	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.02	0.02
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.04	0.04	75.76	75.76	0.02	0.02
Dayton	A10	0.04	0.04	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.04	0.04	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.04	0.04	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.04	0.04	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.04	0.04	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.04	0.04	9.68	9.68	-0.03	-0.03
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.04	0.04	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.04	0.04	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.04	0.04	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Houston	Amer	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
UMKC	WAC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Morehead St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	22.22	22.22	-0.01	-0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.02	0.02	80.00	80.00	0.01	0.01
Troy	SB	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
American	Pat	0.02	0.02	20.00	20.00	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.02	0.02	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	15.62	15.62	-0.02	-0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.02	0.02	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
George Washington	A10	0.02	0.02	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
South Florida	Amer	0.02	0.02	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.02	0.02	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
USC Upstate	ASun	0.02	0.02	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Yale	Ivy	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Appalachian St.	SB	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Arizona	P12	0.02	0.02	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Cincinnati	Amer	0.02	0.02	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
James Madison	CAA	0.02	0.02	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.02	0.02	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.02	0.02	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
LSU	SEC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Maryland	B10	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Michigan St.	B10	0.02	0.02	87.88	87.88	0.02	0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.02	0.02	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.02	0.02	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.02	0.02	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.02	0.02	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.02	0.02	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Lipscomb	ASun	0.02	0.02	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.02	0.02	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
VCU	A10	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Columbia	Ivy	0.02	0.02	26.92	26.92	-0.01	-0.01
Connecticut	Amer	0.02	0.02	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Hofstra	CAA	0.02	0.02	60.00	60.00	0.00	0.00
La Salle	A10	0.02	0.02	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Lafayette	Pat	0.02	0.02	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Syracuse	ACC	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.00	0.00
Temple	Amer	0.02	0.02	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.02	0.02	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01