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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Gonzaga

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:8.0
Current RPI:8
Expected SOS:72
Current SOS:72
Current Record:31-2
Expected Record:31-2
Current Conf Record:20-1
Expected Conf Record:20-1
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:15-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC RPI:6
Expected OOC SOS:17



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
31-28.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Gonzaga.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Sacramento St. (141.0)BSkyH104-58W100%0.0
11-17SMU (12.0)AmerH72-56W100%0.0
11-19Saint Joseph's (187.0)A10H94-42W100%0.0
11-26Georgia (38.0)SECN88-76W100%0.0
11-28St. John's (44.0)BEA66-73W100%0.0
12-2Southeastern Louisiana (329.0)SlndH76-57W100%0.0
12-6Arizona (5.0)P12A66-63L0%0.0
12-10Washington St. (169.0)P12H81-66W100%0.0
12-13UCLA (48.0)P12A74-87W100%0.0
12-15Texas Southern (120.0)SWACH94-54W100%0.0
12-20Cal Poly (199.0)BWN63-50W100%0.0
12-27BYU (36.0)WCCA80-87W100%0.0
12-29San Diego (157.0)WCCA48-60W100%0.0
1-3Portland (149.0)WCCA75-87W100%0.0
1-8San Francisco (181.0)WCCH88-57W100%0.0
1-10Santa Clara (202.0)WCCH79-57W100%0.0
1-15Pepperdine (134.0)WCCA76-78W100%0.0
1-17Loyola Marymount (268.0)WCCA55-72W100%0.0
1-22Saint Mary's (68.0)WCCH68-47W100%0.0
1-24Pacific (241.0)WCCH91-60W100%0.0
1-29Portland (149.0)WCCH64-46W100%0.0
1-31Memphis (83.0)AmerH82-64W100%0.0
2-5Santa Clara (202.0)WCCA63-77W100%0.0
2-7San Francisco (181.0)WCCA70-81W100%0.0
2-12Loyola Marymount (268.0)WCCH80-51W100%0.0
2-14Pepperdine (134.0)WCCH56-48W100%0.0
2-19Pacific (241.0)WCCA74-86W100%0.0
2-21Saint Mary's (68.0)WCCA60-70W100%0.0
2-26San Diego (157.0)WCCH59-39W100%0.0
2-28BYU (36.0)WCCH70-73L0%0.0
3-7San Francisco (181.0)WCCN81-72W100%0.0
3-9Pepperdine (134.0)WCCN79-61W100%0.0
3-10BYU (36.0)WCCN91-75W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Gonzaga's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Gonzaga's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Gonzaga.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
GonzagaWCC26.5726.5793.6393.6323.1823.18
BYUWCC5.565.5675.8675.862.882.88
San FranciscoWCC5.545.5446.4346.43-0.40-0.40
PepperdineWCC5.505.5062.9662.961.431.43
Santa ClaraWCC4.164.1642.8642.86-0.59-0.59
PortlandWCC4.144.1453.5753.570.300.30
Saint Mary'sWCC4.094.0974.0774.071.971.97
San DiegoWCC4.084.0850.0050.000.000.00
PacificWCC4.054.0534.6234.62-1.25-1.25
Loyola MarymountWCC4.044.0425.0025.00-2.02-2.02
Cal PolyBW1.691.6942.3142.31-0.26-0.26
UCLAP121.631.6362.5062.500.410.41
Washington St.P121.611.6143.3343.33-0.21-0.21
ArizonaP121.591.5990.9190.911.301.30
SMUAmer1.581.5883.8783.871.071.07
St. John'sBE1.571.5766.6766.670.520.52
Sacramento St.BSky1.571.5764.2964.290.450.45
MemphisAmer1.561.5658.0658.060.250.25
Texas SouthernSWAC1.541.5466.6766.670.510.51
GeorgiaSEC1.521.5267.7467.740.540.54
Saint Joseph'sA101.521.5243.3343.33-0.20-0.20
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd1.521.5226.6726.67-0.71-0.71
UC IrvineBW0.260.2661.2961.290.060.06
StanfordP120.260.2659.3859.380.050.05
ColoradoP120.240.2446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.230.2324.1424.14-0.12-0.12
Arizona St.P120.220.2253.1253.120.010.01
CaliforniaP120.210.2154.5554.550.020.02
UtahP120.210.2174.1974.190.100.10
Portland St.BSky0.200.2048.1548.15-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.200.200.000.00-0.20-0.20
HawaiiBW0.200.2060.6160.610.040.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.200.2074.1974.190.100.10
Oregon St.P120.190.1953.3353.330.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.180.1856.6756.670.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.170.1745.1645.16-0.02-0.02
USCP120.170.1737.5037.50-0.04-0.04
OregonP120.160.1672.7372.730.070.07
Fresno St.MWC0.160.1643.3343.33-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.160.1641.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.160.1658.0658.060.030.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.150.1522.5822.58-0.08-0.08
Boise St.MWC0.150.1574.1974.190.070.07
WashingtonP120.150.1551.6151.610.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.140.1475.7675.760.070.07
TempleAmer0.140.1469.7069.700.060.06
NortheasternCAA0.130.1367.6567.650.050.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.130.1339.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Utah St.MWC0.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
MassachusettsA100.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
TulaneAmer0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.120.1237.9337.93-0.03-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.120.1258.8258.820.020.02
Idaho St.BSky0.100.1017.8617.86-0.07-0.07
Western IllinoisSum0.100.1023.0823.08-0.06-0.06
CreightonBE0.100.1042.4242.42-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Montana St.BSky0.100.1020.6920.69-0.06-0.06
MontanaBSky0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
DePaulBE0.100.1037.5037.50-0.02-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.100.1030.7730.77-0.04-0.04
Rhode IslandA100.100.1070.0070.000.040.04
XavierBE0.100.1061.7661.760.020.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Weber St.BSky0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
CincinnatiAmer0.090.0968.7568.750.040.04
East CarolinaAmer0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.090.0940.6240.62-0.02-0.02
TulsaAmer0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
UC DavisBW0.080.0879.3179.310.050.05
MercerSC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
DenverSum0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
IdahoBSky0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
IUPUISum0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.070.0732.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Wichita St.MVC0.070.0787.1087.100.060.06
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0765.5265.520.020.02
FordhamA100.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0740.7440.74-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
VillanovaBE0.070.0794.1294.120.060.06
Michigan St.B100.070.0767.6567.650.030.03
UNLVMWC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Seton HallBE0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0726.9226.92-0.03-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
ArkansasSEC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Arkansas Little RockSB0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0760.7160.710.020.02
PurdueB100.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
LamarSlnd0.070.0742.3142.31-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.070.07100.00100.000.070.07
AuburnSEC0.070.0741.1841.18-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0716.6716.67-0.04-0.04
SouthernSWAC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.056.906.90-0.04-0.04
Murray St.OVC0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
NebraskaB100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
RiderMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
ButlerBE0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.056.906.90-0.04-0.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
La SalleA100.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0555.5655.560.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0586.6786.670.040.04
OklahomaB120.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
MississippiSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
BaylorB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
FloridaSEC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
MichiganB100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.040.0428.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.040.0462.9662.960.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.040.0437.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.040.040.000.00-0.04-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.040.0434.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.040.0418.7518.75-0.03-0.03
DelawareCAA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
DaytonA100.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
DrexelCAA0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
DuquesneA100.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.020.0258.3358.330.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
NJITind0.020.0256.0056.000.000.00
PennIvy0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.020.0272.4172.410.010.01
SyracuseACC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
TCUB120.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
UTSACUSA0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.020.0274.2974.290.010.01
VermontAE0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
WinthropBSth0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
BradleyMVC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0275.8675.860.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
TroySB0.020.0229.6329.63-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
WyomingMWC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.020.0268.5768.570.010.01
UABCUSA0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
OaklandHorz0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00