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Through games of Nov 25, 2014.


Gonzaga

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:18.4
Current RPI:4
Expected SOS:98
Current SOS:22
Current Record:3-0
Expected Record:25-4
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:15-3
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-0
Current OOC Record:3-0
Expected OOC Record:10-1
Expected OOC RPI:22
Expected OOC SOS:127



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
29-03.90.71%
28-15.93.82%
27-28.011.13%
26-310.918.31%
25-415.022.11%
24-520.219.62%
23-626.913.67%
22-735.56.96%
21-845.32.64%
20-959.20.68%
19-1070.30.26%
18-1186.40.07%
17-1293.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Gonzaga.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Sacramento St. (223.4)BSkyH104-58W100%0.0
11-17SMU (36.8)AmerH72-56W100%0.0
11-19Saint Joseph's (206.9)A10H94-42W100%0.0
11-26Georgia (78.8)SECN0-078%9.4
12-2Southeastern Louisiana (318.0)SlndH0-0100%31.9
12-6Arizona (18.1)P12A0-047%-1.0
12-10Washington St. (219.5)P12H0-097%23.0
12-13UCLA (53.3)P12A0-058%2.5
12-15Texas Southern (250.3)SWACH0-099%28.3
12-20Cal Poly (235.8)BWN0-096%21.3
12-27BYU (35.5)WCCA0-058%2.3
12-29San Diego (104.9)WCCA0-077%8.9
1-3Portland (157.8)WCCA0-084%11.8
1-8San Francisco (81.2)WCCH0-086%13.0
1-10Santa Clara (187.4)WCCH0-095%20.2
1-15Pepperdine (132.1)WCCA0-078%9.4
1-17Loyola Marymount (225.1)WCCA0-092%17.2
1-22Saint Mary's (42.3)WCCH0-081%10.8
1-24Pacific (232.7)WCCH0-098%24.2
1-29Portland (157.8)WCCH0-094%19.0
1-31Memphis (59.7)AmerH0-083%11.6
2-5Santa Clara (187.4)WCCA0-086%13.1
2-7San Francisco (81.2)WCCA0-069%5.9
2-12Loyola Marymount (225.1)WCCH0-098%24.4
2-14Pepperdine (132.1)WCCH0-092%16.6
2-19Pacific (232.7)WCCA0-092%17.1
2-21Saint Mary's (42.3)WCCA0-062%3.6
2-26San Diego (104.9)WCCH0-091%16.1
2-28BYU (35.5)WCCH0-078%9.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Gonzaga's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Gonzaga's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Gonzaga.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
GonzagaWCC32.5026.47100.0086.1432.5019.13
Santa ClaraWCC0.004.5233.3342.94-0.00-0.64
Saint Mary'sWCC0.004.50100.0074.820.002.23
San FranciscoWCC0.004.5066.6766.900.001.52
PortlandWCC0.004.50100.0053.980.000.36
San DiegoWCC0.004.4975.0053.470.000.31
BYUWCC0.004.4766.6772.130.001.98
PepperdineWCC0.004.4766.6757.810.000.70
Loyola MarymountWCC0.004.4633.3328.67-0.00-1.90
PacificWCC0.004.4533.3332.59-0.00-1.55
Cal PolyBW0.001.9150.0035.420.00-0.56
Washington St.P120.001.8533.3330.14-0.00-0.73
UCLAP120.001.85100.0066.050.000.59
SMUAmer16.671.8150.0068.930.000.69
Sacramento St.BSky16.671.79100.0047.8316.67-0.08
ArizonaP120.001.78100.0076.680.000.95
MemphisAmer0.001.7850.0069.160.000.68
Texas SouthernSWAC0.001.750.0040.22-0.00-0.34
GeorgiaSEC0.001.7275.0057.040.000.24
Saint Joseph'sA1016.671.7275.0038.758.33-0.39
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.001.720.0029.06-0.00-0.72
UC IrvineBW0.000.3233.3367.26-0.000.11
StanfordP120.000.3080.0070.420.000.12
ColoradoP120.000.2775.0059.500.000.05
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.2625.0033.31-0.00-0.09
Arizona St.P120.000.2460.0054.250.000.02
Oregon St.P120.000.2466.6744.530.00-0.03
UtahP120.000.2466.6772.710.000.11
San Jose St.MWC0.000.220.0019.30-0.00-0.14
CaliforniaP120.000.2175.0069.250.000.08
UC RiversideBW4.170.190.0029.35-4.17-0.08
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.190.0057.70-0.000.03
HawaiiBW0.000.1966.6754.720.000.02
Boise St.MWC0.000.1980.0063.110.000.05
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.1920.0050.95-0.000.00
WashingtonP120.000.19100.0055.960.000.02
Portland St.BSky0.000.19100.0048.940.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky1.670.1875.0073.980.830.09
USCP120.000.1850.0028.900.00-0.08
OregonP120.000.1860.0063.180.000.05
Fresno St.MWC0.000.160.0025.33-0.00-0.08
NortheasternCAA0.000.16100.0072.230.000.07
Long Beach St.BW0.000.1625.0052.70-0.000.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.1640.0044.83-0.00-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1625.0045.33-0.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.15100.0048.890.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.1366.6753.920.000.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.130.0028.60-0.00-0.06
Utah St.MWC0.000.1375.0061.090.000.03
Western IllinoisSum0.000.1325.0025.51-0.00-0.06
San Diego St.MWC0.000.13100.0087.570.000.09
TennesseeSEC0.000.1250.0043.100.00-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.000.120.0021.79-0.00-0.07
New OrleansSlnd0.000.120.0036.60-0.00-0.03
MassachusettsA100.000.1280.0060.610.000.03
CincinnatiAmer0.000.12100.0059.140.000.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.1275.0070.310.000.05
HoustonAmer0.000.1266.6760.350.000.02
TulsaAmer0.000.1275.0059.380.000.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.1275.0054.260.000.01
TempleAmer0.000.1260.0049.930.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.000.1266.6738.430.00-0.03
NevadaMWC0.000.1025.0043.34-0.00-0.01
UC DavisBW0.000.10100.0042.270.00-0.02
IdahoBSky0.000.0933.3348.77-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0975.0072.430.000.04
Wichita St.MVC0.000.09100.0083.950.000.06
Weber St.BSky0.000.0925.0054.27-0.000.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0933.3351.32-0.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0966.6750.600.000.00
DenverSum0.000.0966.6766.590.000.03
RichmondA100.000.0966.6766.740.000.03
UNLVMWC0.000.0975.0050.770.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.090.0025.45-0.00-0.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.090.0031.74-0.00-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0940.0067.55-0.000.03
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0933.3333.84-0.00-0.03
KentuckySEC0.000.09100.0089.550.000.07
UTEPCUSA0.000.09100.0070.870.000.04
AuburnSEC0.000.0950.0035.490.00-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.090.0031.72-0.00-0.03
Kansas St.B120.000.0960.0057.210.000.01
LamarSlnd1.670.0925.0037.60-0.83-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.090.0040.78-0.00-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0021.34-0.00-0.04
North DakotaBSky0.000.060.0044.87-0.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.060.0051.20-0.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.060.0020.18-0.00-0.04
XavierBE0.000.06100.0079.400.000.04
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0666.6751.550.000.00
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0060.560.000.01
DrakeMVC0.000.0625.0027.00-0.00-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.06100.0060.830.000.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0625.0046.48-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.000.0660.0064.290.000.02
IUPUISum0.000.0640.0031.23-0.00-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.060.0039.00-0.00-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0633.3368.48-0.000.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.060.0032.89-0.00-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0038.65-0.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.06100.0052.030.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0675.0055.300.000.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0633.3345.50-0.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.06100.0079.080.000.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0035.72-0.00-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.0680.0058.990.000.01
ArkansasSEC1.670.06100.0081.021.670.04
MississippiSEC0.000.0675.0052.730.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0640.0050.32-0.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.06100.0052.850.000.00
MichiganB100.000.0675.0066.400.000.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0640.0036.72-0.00-0.02
OklahomaB120.000.0666.6756.850.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.06100.0055.110.000.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.060.0067.43-0.000.02
BaylorB120.000.06100.0070.500.000.02
FloridaSEC0.000.0666.6771.550.000.02
IndianaB101.670.0680.0058.081.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0625.0047.03-0.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.060.0023.12-0.00-0.03
FordhamA100.000.060.0026.74-0.00-0.03
La SalleA100.000.06100.0056.940.000.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.060.0046.74-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.060.0047.30-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.06100.0060.980.000.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0675.0052.460.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0666.6744.670.00-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0032.72-0.00-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.060.0066.91-0.000.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0032.98-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0616.6731.76-0.00-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.060.0020.75-0.00-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0620.0043.52-0.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0017.79-0.00-0.04
SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0035.37-0.00-0.02
DelawareCAA0.000.030.0018.08-0.00-0.02
IPFWSum0.000.0366.6761.780.000.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0325.0045.15-0.00-0.00
TCUB120.000.03100.0057.870.000.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0333.3328.79-0.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0350.0030.030.00-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.030.0046.09-0.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.030.0066.25-0.000.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.030.0038.35-0.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.03100.0049.350.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0320.0031.41-0.00-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0325.0031.38-0.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.0360.0056.190.000.00
MercerSC0.000.0333.3353.13-0.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.03100.0047.350.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0350.0053.310.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0325.0036.61-0.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.000.03100.0065.620.000.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0350.0066.080.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0375.0067.070.000.01
TroySB0.000.030.0042.64-0.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.0366.6754.040.000.00
WyomingMWC0.000.03100.0067.780.000.01
DavidsonA100.000.0350.0053.610.000.00
DaytonA100.000.0375.0071.680.000.01
DrexelCAA1.670.0320.0035.41-1.00-0.01
DuquesneA100.000.03100.0055.470.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC1.670.0333.3337.42-0.56-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0340.0058.90-0.000.01
George MasonA100.000.0320.0022.51-0.00-0.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0366.6772.650.000.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.03100.0053.250.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC1.670.030.0044.90-1.67-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.000.0340.0028.76-0.00-0.01
MaristMAAC0.000.030.0031.98-0.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0333.3340.46-0.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0320.0029.38-0.00-0.01
PennIvy0.000.030.0025.91-0.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0375.0047.410.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0065.510.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0333.3349.98-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.000.0380.0073.820.000.01
VermontAE1.670.0333.3358.10-0.560.00
VillanovaBE0.000.03100.0078.020.000.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0325.0040.73-0.00-0.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0333.3354.56-0.000.00