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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Gonzaga

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:8.0
Current RPI:8
Expected SOS:78
Current SOS:78
Current Record:32-1
Expected Record:32-1
Current Conf Record:20-1
Expected Conf Record:20-1
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:6-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-0
Current OOC Record:12-0
Expected OOC Record:12-0
Expected OOC RPI:5
Expected OOC SOS:61



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
32-18.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Gonzaga.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Utah Valley (206.0)WACH92-69W100%0.0
11-14San Diego St. (98.0)MWCH69-48W100%0.0
11-18Bryant (285.0)NECH109-70W100%0.0
11-24Quinnipiac (272.0)MAACN62-82W100%0.0
11-25Florida (10.0)SECN72-77W100%0.0
11-27Iowa St. (21.0)B12N73-71W100%0.0
12-1Mississippi Valley St. (334.0)SWACH97-63W100%0.0
12-3Arizona (2.0)P12N62-69W100%0.0
12-7Washington (211.0)P12H98-71W100%0.0
12-10Akron (58.0)MACH61-43W100%0.0
12-18Tennessee (82.0)SECN76-86W100%0.0
12-21South Dakota (123.0)SumH102-65W100%0.0
12-29Pepperdine (245.0)WCCH92-62W100%0.0
12-31Pacific (223.0)WCCA61-81W100%0.0
1-5San Francisco (94.0)WCCA80-95W100%0.0
1-12Loyola Marymount (153.0)WCCH93-55W100%0.0
1-14Saint Mary's (17.0)WCCH79-56W100%0.0
1-19Santa Clara (126.0)WCCA57-88W100%0.0
1-21Portland (233.0)WCCH73-52W100%0.0
1-23Portland (233.0)WCCA64-83W100%0.0
1-26San Diego (205.0)WCCH79-43W100%0.0
1-28Pepperdine (245.0)WCCA49-96W100%0.0
2-2BYU (65.0)WCCA75-85W100%0.0
2-4Santa Clara (126.0)WCCH90-55W100%0.0
2-9Loyola Marymount (153.0)WCCA60-90W100%0.0
2-11Saint Mary's (17.0)WCCA64-74W100%0.0
2-16San Francisco (94.0)WCCH96-61W100%0.0
2-18Pacific (223.0)WCCH82-61W100%0.0
2-23San Diego (205.0)WCCA38-96W100%0.0
2-25BYU (65.0)WCCH71-79L0%0.0
3-4Pacific (223.0)WCCN82-50W100%0.0
3-6Santa Clara (126.0)WCCN77-68W100%0.0
3-7Saint Mary's (17.0)WCCN74-56W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Gonzaga's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Gonzaga's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Gonzaga.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
GonzagaWCC26.5226.5295.4895.4824.1324.13
Saint Mary'sWCC5.525.5296.5596.555.145.14
Santa ClaraWCC5.495.4955.1755.170.570.57
PacificWCC5.475.4734.4834.48-1.70-1.70
BYUWCC4.114.1167.7467.741.461.46
PortlandWCC4.104.1031.0331.03-1.55-1.55
San FranciscoWCC4.054.0565.5265.521.261.26
San DiegoWCC4.024.0242.8642.86-0.57-0.57
PepperdineWCC4.024.0228.5728.57-1.72-1.72
Loyola MarymountWCC3.993.9951.8551.850.150.15
ArizonaP121.641.6490.9190.911.341.34
San Diego St.MWC1.611.6158.0658.060.260.26
South DakotaSum1.561.5666.6766.670.520.52
Utah ValleyWAC1.561.5644.4444.44-0.17-0.17
WashingtonP121.561.5630.0030.00-0.62-0.62
FloridaSEC1.541.5477.4277.420.840.84
Iowa St.B121.541.5471.8871.880.670.67
TennesseeSEC1.541.5450.0050.000.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC1.541.5422.5822.58-0.84-0.84
AkronMAC1.521.5278.1278.120.850.85
BryantNEC1.521.5236.6736.67-0.40-0.40
QuinnipiacMAAC1.521.5233.3333.33-0.51-0.51
UCLAP120.290.2987.8887.880.220.22
NevadaMWC0.270.2782.3582.350.170.17
USCP120.260.2672.7372.730.120.12
UC IrvineBW0.260.2657.5857.580.040.04
San Jose St.MWC0.240.2442.8642.86-0.03-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.210.2155.8855.880.030.03
Portland St.BSky0.200.2042.8642.86-0.03-0.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.190.1951.7251.720.010.01
Washington St.P120.190.1940.0040.00-0.04-0.04
ColoradoP120.190.1956.2556.250.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.150.1567.8667.860.050.05
UtahP120.150.1562.0762.070.040.04
UC RiversideBW0.150.1522.2222.22-0.08-0.08
Northern ArizonaBSky0.150.1525.8125.81-0.07-0.07
Sacramento St.BSky0.140.1437.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.140.1440.6240.62-0.03-0.03
StanfordP120.140.1443.3343.33-0.02-0.02
SeattleWAC0.130.1337.0437.04-0.03-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.120.1268.9768.970.050.05
Weber St.BSky0.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
Utah St.MWC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.120.1251.7251.720.000.00
DaytonA100.120.1276.6776.670.060.06
RiderMAAC0.120.1254.5554.550.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.120.1235.4835.48-0.03-0.03
TCUB120.120.1254.5554.550.010.01
Arizona St.P120.120.1245.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.120.1261.7661.760.030.03
ValparaisoHorz0.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
New Mexico St.WAC0.100.1083.3383.330.070.07
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.100.1035.7135.71-0.03-0.03
Boise St.MWC0.100.1062.0762.070.020.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.100.1018.5218.52-0.06-0.06
UC DavisBW0.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
KentuckySEC0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
South CarolinaSEC0.100.1067.7467.740.030.03
Oregon St.P120.100.1012.9012.90-0.07-0.07
Western KentuckyCUSA0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
OregonP120.090.0984.8584.850.070.07
Northern ColoradoBSky0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
CaliforniaP120.090.0963.6463.640.030.03
West VirginiaB120.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
UMKCWAC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
BelmontOVC0.070.0777.7877.780.040.04
Little RockSB0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0730.3030.30-0.03-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0723.0823.08-0.04-0.04
Idaho St.BSky0.070.0713.3313.33-0.05-0.05
Fort WayneSum0.070.0757.1457.140.010.01
MississippiSEC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
DrakeMVC0.070.0720.6920.69-0.04-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Green BayHorz0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.073.333.33-0.07-0.07
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0753.5753.570.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.070.0760.7160.710.020.02
UABCUSA0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
UNLVMWC0.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
OhioMAC0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0767.6567.650.020.02
OklahomaB120.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
UTSACUSA0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0532.0032.00-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
SamfordSC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0536.0036.00-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
IonaMAAC0.050.0564.7164.710.010.01
IUPUISum0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Montana St.BSky0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
SienaMAAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0510.0010.00-0.04-0.04
TroySB0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
WagnerNEC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
YaleIvy0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
LSUSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.056.906.90-0.04-0.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
BaylorB120.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
BuffaloMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
KansasB120.050.0587.5087.500.030.03
Miami OHMAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.050.0578.5778.570.030.03
Saint LouisA100.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0238.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
HartfordAE0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.020.0261.5461.540.010.01
HofstraCAA0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
LipscombASun0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.020.0219.3519.35-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Notre DameACC0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.020.0210.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.020.0284.8584.850.020.02
WisconsinB100.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.020.0277.1477.140.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
IndianaB100.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
LibertyBSth0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
North FloridaASun0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
CreightonBE0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
IowaB100.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01