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Through games of Nov 21, 2014.


Gonzaga

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:13.9
Current RPI:33
Expected SOS:95
Current SOS:93
Current Record:3-0
Expected Record:25-4
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:16-2
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-0
Current OOC Record:3-0
Expected OOC Record:10-1
Expected OOC RPI:13
Expected OOC SOS:117



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
29-04.01.46%
28-15.16.16%
27-26.914.72%
26-39.322.73%
25-413.122.95%
24-517.816.74%
23-623.89.27%
22-732.33.90%
21-843.01.54%
20-954.20.43%
19-1066.80.05%
18-1184.20.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Gonzaga.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Sacramento St. (233.5)BSkyH104-58W100%0.0
11-17SMU (33.0)AmerH72-56W100%0.0
11-19Saint Joseph's (219.2)A10H94-42W100%0.0
11-26Georgia (65.0)SECN0-077%8.9
12-2Southeastern Louisiana (266.4)SlndH0-099%28.1
12-6Arizona (25.1)P12A0-055%1.4
12-10Washington St. (220.6)P12H0-098%24.3
12-13UCLA (55.7)P12A0-063%3.9
12-15Texas Southern (251.9)SWACH0-099%28.6
12-20Cal Poly (200.5)BWN0-095%20.1
12-27BYU (33.4)WCCA0-062%3.8
12-29San Diego (121.5)WCCA0-081%10.6
1-3Portland (157.1)WCCA0-085%12.6
1-8San Francisco (92.6)WCCH0-090%15.2
1-10Santa Clara (150.9)WCCH0-094%18.8
1-15Pepperdine (150.0)WCCA0-084%12.0
1-17Loyola Marymount (222.2)WCCA0-093%17.8
1-22Saint Mary's (44.4)WCCH0-084%11.8
1-24Pacific (227.9)WCCH0-098%25.4
1-29Portland (157.1)WCCH0-095%19.8
1-31Memphis (61.3)AmerH0-085%12.4
2-5Santa Clara (150.9)WCCA0-083%11.6
2-7San Francisco (92.6)WCCA0-075%8.0
2-12Loyola Marymount (222.2)WCCH0-098%25.0
2-14Pepperdine (150.0)WCCH0-094%19.2
2-19Pacific (227.9)WCCA0-094%18.2
2-21Saint Mary's (44.4)WCCA0-065%4.6
2-26San Diego (121.5)WCCH0-093%17.7
2-28BYU (33.4)WCCH0-082%10.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Gonzaga's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Gonzaga's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Gonzaga.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
GonzagaWCC34.7226.48100.0087.8934.7220.06
Santa ClaraWCC0.004.5350.0050.140.000.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.004.50100.0074.060.002.17
PortlandWCC0.004.50100.0053.510.000.32
San FranciscoWCC0.004.50100.0065.330.001.38
San DiegoWCC0.004.5066.6751.090.000.10
BYUWCC0.004.47100.0072.500.002.01
PepperdineWCC0.004.47100.0054.090.000.37
Loyola MarymountWCC0.004.4733.3329.92-0.00-1.79
PacificWCC0.004.4650.0032.170.00-1.59
Cal PolyBW0.001.9250.0039.590.00-0.40
Washington St.P120.001.8533.3327.97-0.00-0.82
UCLAP120.001.85100.0062.730.000.47
SMUAmer16.671.8150.0070.130.000.73
Sacramento St.BSky16.671.79100.0048.7016.67-0.05
ArizonaP120.001.78100.0069.810.000.71
MemphisAmer0.001.780.0067.15-0.000.61
Texas SouthernSWAC0.001.750.0039.52-0.00-0.37
GeorgiaSEC0.001.7266.6758.820.000.30
Saint Joseph'sA1016.671.7250.0034.580.00-0.53
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.001.720.0042.90-0.00-0.24
UC IrvineBW0.000.3250.0062.910.000.08
StanfordP120.000.31100.0068.290.000.11
ColoradoP120.000.27100.0068.420.000.10
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.260.0038.57-0.00-0.06
Arizona St.P120.000.25100.0058.420.000.04
Oregon St.P120.000.24100.0050.080.000.00
UtahP120.000.2466.6770.360.000.10
San Jose St.MWC0.000.220.0020.69-0.00-0.13
CaliforniaP120.000.2175.0073.240.000.10
UC RiversideBW4.170.190.0027.23-4.17-0.09
HawaiiBW0.000.1975.0054.690.000.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.190.0054.32-0.000.02
WashingtonP120.000.19100.0056.460.000.02
Boise St.MWC0.000.19100.0065.850.000.06
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.1933.3354.24-0.000.02
Portland St.BSky0.000.19100.0051.300.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.19100.0061.420.000.04
USCP120.000.1850.0026.710.00-0.09
OregonP120.000.18100.0070.690.000.07
Fresno St.MWC0.000.160.0032.99-0.00-0.06
NortheasternCAA0.000.16100.0069.720.000.06
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.1633.3344.98-0.00-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.1633.3352.91-0.000.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.160.0041.63-0.00-0.03
UCFAmer0.000.15100.0045.610.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.13100.0055.380.000.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.130.0028.50-0.00-0.06
Western IllinoisSum0.000.130.0034.57-0.00-0.04
Utah St.MWC0.000.13100.0064.330.000.04
San Diego St.MWC0.000.13100.0082.150.000.08
TennesseeSEC0.000.1250.0044.000.00-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.120.0034.37-0.00-0.04
Montana St.BSky0.000.120.0024.76-0.00-0.06
MassachusettsA100.000.12100.0063.880.000.03
CincinnatiAmer0.000.12100.0064.850.000.04
ConnecticutAmer0.000.12100.0075.400.000.06
HoustonAmer0.000.12100.0065.750.000.04
South FloridaAmer0.000.12100.0044.620.00-0.01
TulaneAmer0.000.1250.0033.930.00-0.04
TulsaAmer0.000.1266.6752.000.000.00
TempleAmer0.000.1266.6760.730.000.03
NevadaMWC0.000.1050.0052.120.000.00
UC DavisBW0.000.10100.0043.140.00-0.01
MontanaBSky0.000.100.0049.81-0.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.000.0950.0047.220.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0966.6771.300.000.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.090.0025.67-0.00-0.05
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0950.0044.430.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.09100.0084.100.000.06
Weber St.BSky0.000.090.0055.60-0.000.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.090.0029.61-0.00-0.04
UNLVMWC0.000.0966.6746.160.00-0.01
DenverSum0.000.0950.0062.440.000.02
RichmondA100.000.0950.0062.660.000.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.09100.0069.630.000.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0933.3365.68-0.000.03
East CarolinaAmer0.000.090.0034.69-0.00-0.03
KentuckySEC0.000.09100.0086.080.000.06
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.090.0035.31-0.00-0.03
AuburnSEC0.000.0966.6742.560.00-0.01
LamarSlnd2.780.090.0033.17-2.78-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.090.0038.83-0.00-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0650.0054.170.000.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0016.72-0.00-0.04
North DakotaBSky0.000.060.0043.21-0.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.060.0047.54-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0031.91-0.00-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.000.060.0024.22-0.00-0.03
XavierBE0.000.06100.0076.430.000.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.060.0051.04-0.000.00
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0055.810.000.01
DrakeMVC0.000.060.0028.82-0.00-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.06100.0063.380.000.02
HowardMEAC0.000.060.0034.15-0.00-0.02
IowaB100.000.0650.0067.840.000.02
IUPUISum0.000.0633.3330.78-0.00-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.060.0037.45-0.00-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.0650.0072.260.000.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.060.0035.17-0.00-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0038.65-0.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.06100.0052.280.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0666.6752.470.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.06100.0055.900.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.06100.0074.210.000.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.060.0045.64-0.00-0.01
MichiganB100.000.06100.0066.870.000.02
MississippiSEC0.000.0666.6760.220.000.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0666.6750.370.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.060.0053.20-0.000.00
OklahomaB120.000.0650.0059.230.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.06100.0053.870.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0650.0055.220.000.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.060.0067.54-0.000.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.06100.0048.390.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.060.0020.87-0.00-0.03
BaylorB120.000.06100.0068.940.000.02
FloridaSEC0.000.0666.6766.600.000.02
IndianaB102.780.06100.0063.852.780.02
Kansas St.B120.000.0666.6755.230.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.060.0048.22-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.000.060.0034.73-0.00-0.02
La SalleA100.000.06100.0055.910.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.06100.0053.060.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0650.0050.390.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0038.98-0.00-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.060.0062.15-0.000.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0040.22-0.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0625.0033.23-0.00-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0633.3335.37-0.00-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0015.85-0.00-0.04
SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0045.55-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.060.0023.71-0.00-0.03
DelawareCAA0.000.030.0033.61-0.00-0.01
IPFWSum0.000.0350.0065.390.000.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0333.3347.72-0.00-0.00
TCUB120.000.03100.0054.240.000.00
UTSACUSA0.000.030.0028.13-0.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.000.030.0025.34-0.00-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.030.0054.47-0.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.030.0062.16-0.000.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.030.0034.26-0.00-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0366.6766.420.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.03100.0052.690.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0333.3336.31-0.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.030.0041.53-0.00-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.030.0032.47-0.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.0366.6756.820.000.00
MercerSC0.000.0350.0052.770.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.03100.0036.560.00-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0350.0059.350.000.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.030.0032.86-0.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.030.0033.70-0.00-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0333.3349.79-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0061.070.000.01
Seton HallBE0.000.03100.0057.560.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.0333.3363.09-0.000.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.030.0037.20-0.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0366.6764.990.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.030.0053.38-0.000.00
TroySB0.000.030.0046.30-0.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.03100.0050.220.000.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0350.0056.600.000.00
WyomingMWC0.000.03100.0056.150.000.00
DavidsonA100.000.03100.0048.380.00-0.00
DaytonA100.000.0366.6769.310.000.01
DrexelCAA2.780.030.0034.27-2.78-0.01
DuquesneA100.000.030.0051.78-0.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC2.780.0350.0036.810.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0325.0022.09-0.00-0.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0366.6777.370.000.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.030.0043.82-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.000.0366.6738.520.00-0.01
MaristMAAC0.000.030.0043.44-0.00-0.00
PennIvy0.000.030.0025.28-0.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.03100.0066.070.000.01
VCUA100.000.03100.0074.770.000.01
VermontAE0.000.0350.0066.020.000.01
VillanovaBE0.000.03100.0067.360.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0350.0043.330.00-0.00