live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Gonzaga

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:46.0
Current RPI:46
Expected SOS:109
Current SOS:109
Current Record:25-7
Expected Record:25-7
Current Conf Record:18-3
Expected Conf Record:18-3
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:16-0
Current OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:87
Expected OOC SOS:54



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-746.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Gonzaga.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-18Northern Arizona (333.0)BSkyH91-52W100%0.0
11-21Mount St. Mary's (245.0)NECH101-56W100%0.0
11-25Washington (83.0)P12N64-80W100%0.0
11-26Texas A&M (18.0)SECN61-62L0%0.0
11-27Connecticut (32.0)AmerN73-70W100%0.0
12-2Washington St. (212.0)P12A60-69W100%0.0
12-5Arizona (26.0)P12H63-68L0%0.0
12-8Montana (145.0)BSkyH61-58W100%0.0
12-12UCLA (102.0)P12H66-71L0%0.0
12-19Tennessee (143.0)SECH86-79W100%0.0
12-21Pepperdine (129.0)WCCH99-73W100%0.0
12-23Loyola Marymount (223.0)WCCH85-62W100%0.0
12-31Santa Clara (251.0)WCCA77-79W100%0.0
1-2San Francisco (228.0)WCCA94-102W100%0.0
1-9Portland (249.0)WCCH85-74W100%0.0
1-14BYU (76.0)WCCH68-69L0%0.0
1-16San Diego (302.0)WCCH88-52W100%0.0
1-21Saint Mary's (38.0)WCCA70-67L0%0.0
1-23Pacific (268.0)WCCA61-71W100%0.0
1-28Santa Clara (251.0)WCCH84-67W100%0.0
1-30San Francisco (228.0)WCCH86-48W100%0.0
2-4Loyola Marymount (223.0)WCCA63-92W100%0.0
2-6Pepperdine (129.0)WCCA66-69W100%0.0
2-11Portland (249.0)WCCA66-92W100%0.0
2-13SMU (13.0)AmerA69-60L0%0.0
2-18Pacific (268.0)WCCH90-68W100%0.0
2-20Saint Mary's (38.0)WCCH58-63L0%0.0
2-25San Diego (302.0)WCCA60-82W100%0.0
2-27BYU (76.0)WCCA68-71W100%0.0
3-5Portland (249.0)WCCN92-67W100%0.0
3-7BYU (76.0)WCCN88-84W100%0.0
3-8Saint Mary's (38.0)WCCN75-85W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Gonzaga's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Gonzaga's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Gonzaga.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
GonzagaWCC26.5926.5975.6375.6313.6313.63
Saint Mary'sWCC5.745.7485.7185.714.104.10
BYUWCC5.695.6972.4172.412.552.55
PortlandWCC5.635.6339.2939.29-1.21-1.21
PepperdineWCC4.304.3060.7160.710.920.92
Loyola MarymountWCC4.254.2546.4346.43-0.30-0.30
Santa ClaraWCC4.214.2135.7135.71-1.20-1.20
San FranciscoWCC4.194.1951.8551.850.160.16
San DiegoWCC4.174.1729.6329.63-1.70-1.70
PacificWCC4.134.1325.0025.00-2.06-2.06
ArizonaP121.851.8575.0075.000.930.93
UCLAP121.761.7645.1645.16-0.17-0.17
WashingtonP121.761.7658.0658.060.280.28
MontanaBSky1.751.7564.2964.290.500.50
Washington St.P121.741.7427.5927.59-0.78-0.78
Northern ArizonaBSky1.671.6711.1111.11-1.30-1.30
ConnecticutAmer1.611.6172.7372.730.730.73
SMUAmer1.611.6182.7682.761.051.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC1.591.5943.7543.75-0.20-0.20
TennesseeSEC1.591.5945.4545.45-0.14-0.14
Texas A&MSEC1.591.5975.7675.760.820.82
ColoradoP120.370.3765.6265.620.120.12
Cal St. FullertonBW0.320.3228.5728.57-0.14-0.14
USCP120.280.2863.6463.640.080.08
Weber St.BSky0.260.2674.1974.190.130.13
StanfordP120.250.2548.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.240.2441.3841.38-0.04-0.04
UC IrvineBW0.240.2471.8871.880.100.10
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.240.2428.5728.57-0.10-0.10
Boise St.MWC0.230.2360.0060.000.050.05
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.220.2250.0050.000.000.00
UtahP120.220.2275.7675.760.110.11
Arizona St.P120.220.2246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.210.2132.1432.14-0.07-0.07
CaliforniaP120.200.2069.7069.700.080.08
Fresno St.MWC0.190.1971.8871.880.080.08
Southern UtahBSky0.190.1914.2914.29-0.13-0.13
Idaho St.BSky0.180.1848.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.180.1837.9337.93-0.04-0.04
Oregon St.P120.180.1860.0060.000.040.04
Long Beach St.BW0.170.1756.2556.250.020.02
OregonP120.170.1781.8281.820.110.11
UC RiversideBW0.160.1638.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.150.1533.3333.33-0.05-0.05
IdahoBSky0.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
San Jose St.MWC0.130.1321.4321.43-0.08-0.08
Colorado St.MWC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
TulsaAmer0.130.1364.5264.520.040.04
Cal PolyBW0.120.1228.5728.57-0.05-0.05
CincinnatiAmer0.120.1268.7568.750.050.05
MemphisAmer0.120.1255.8855.880.010.01
KentuckySEC0.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
LSUSEC0.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
NevadaMWC0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.100.1072.4172.410.050.05
New MexicoMWC0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
HoustonAmer0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
TulaneAmer0.100.1035.2935.29-0.03-0.03
TempleAmer0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
TexasB120.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
MissouriSEC0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
AuburnSEC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.080.0879.3179.310.040.04
ManhattanMAAC0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
East CarolinaAmer0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.080.0824.2424.24-0.04-0.04
TCUB120.070.0736.3636.36-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.0722.8622.86-0.04-0.04
Utah St.MWC0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.070.0713.7913.79-0.05-0.05
Sacred HeartNEC0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
Green BayHorz0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
HamptonMEAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.04-0.04
DrexelCAA0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
DrakeMVC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
DuquesneA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
LipscombASun0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0511.1111.11-0.04-0.04
KansasB120.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
MichiganB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
New HampshireAE0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
UNLVMWC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
BryantNEC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
FurmanSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
MarylandB100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Ohio St.B100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
BrownIvy0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Texas St.SB0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
YaleIvy0.030.0377.7877.780.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0226.9226.92-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.020.0282.3582.350.020.02
OaklandHorz0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
PennIvy0.020.0237.0437.04-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.020.0212.9012.90-0.02-0.02
BucknellPat0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
ElonCAA0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
LehighPat0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.020.0220.8320.83-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
UMBCAE0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
BaylorB120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
ButlerBE0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Iowa St.B120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Kansas St.B120.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
MaineAE0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
NebraskaB100.020.0247.0647.06-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0264.2964.290.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01