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Through games of Jan 20, 2017.


Gonzaga

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:6.3
Current RPI:10
Expected SOS:78
Current SOS:57
Current Record:18-0
Expected Record:28-1
Current Conf Record:6-0
Expected Conf Record:16-1
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:4-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:10-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-0
Current OOC Record:12-0
Expected OOC Record:12-0
Expected OOC RPI:4
Expected OOC SOS:40



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
29-04.540.45%
28-16.643.33%
27-29.514.15%
26-313.81.89%
25-418.10.16%
24-521.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Gonzaga.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Utah Valley (188.7)WACH92-69W100%0.0
11-14San Diego St. (72.5)MWCH69-48W100%0.0
11-18Bryant (292.0)NECH109-70W100%0.0
11-24Quinnipiac (225.5)MAACN62-82W100%0.0
11-25Florida (11.2)SECN72-77W100%0.0
11-27Iowa St. (45.0)B12N73-71W100%0.0
12-1Mississippi Valley St. (325.8)SWACH97-63W100%0.0
12-3Arizona (11.1)P12N62-69W100%0.0
12-7Washington (138.8)P12H98-71W100%0.0
12-10Akron (46.6)MACH61-43W100%0.0
12-18Tennessee (80.9)SECN76-86W100%0.0
12-21South Dakota (174.3)SumH102-65W100%0.0
12-29Pepperdine (253.5)WCCH92-62W100%0.0
12-31Pacific (211.7)WCCA61-81W100%0.0
1-5San Francisco (102.4)WCCA80-95W100%0.0
1-12Loyola Marymount (173.3)WCCH93-55W100%0.0
1-14Saint Mary's (20.1)WCCH79-56W100%0.0
1-19Santa Clara (169.0)WCCA57-88W100%0.0
1-21Portland (203.3)WCCH0-0100%29.2
1-26San Diego (174.3)WCCH0-099%27.9
1-28Pepperdine (253.5)WCCA0-099%25.9
2-2BYU (67.5)WCCA0-080%9.2
2-4Santa Clara (169.0)WCCH0-099%24.9
2-9Loyola Marymount (173.3)WCCA0-096%19.7
2-11Saint Mary's (20.1)WCCA0-064%4.0
2-16San Francisco (102.4)WCCH0-097%21.2
2-18Pacific (211.7)WCCH0-099%28.6
2-23San Diego (174.3)WCCA0-097%21.7
2-25BYU (67.5)WCCH0-092%15.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Gonzaga's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Gonzaga's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Gonzaga.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
GonzagaWCC26.3926.31100.0097.7326.3925.12
BYUWCC0.554.3770.0072.460.221.96
San FranciscoWCC3.084.3666.6764.771.031.29
Santa ClaraWCC3.084.3650.0049.060.00-0.08
San DiegoWCC0.544.3650.0046.800.00-0.28
PacificWCC3.014.3338.8938.19-0.67-1.02
PepperdineWCC3.014.3323.5322.71-1.59-2.36
Saint Mary'sWCC3.014.3394.1292.452.653.67
Loyola MarymountWCC3.014.3250.0047.580.00-0.21
PortlandWCC0.522.6947.0641.94-0.03-0.43
San Diego St.MWC2.851.8462.5066.680.710.61
ArizonaP122.851.8494.4487.322.531.37
Utah ValleyWAC2.781.7842.8646.45-0.40-0.13
WashingtonP122.781.7852.9444.880.16-0.18
South DakotaSum2.781.7557.8956.780.440.24
FloridaSEC2.861.7582.3577.431.850.96
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC2.861.7511.7623.74-2.19-0.92
Iowa St.B122.851.7568.7563.961.070.49
TennesseeSEC2.851.7550.0050.090.000.00
AkronMAC2.781.7288.2479.502.121.02
BryantNEC2.781.7222.2234.72-1.54-0.53
QuinnipiacMAAC2.781.7244.4443.18-0.31-0.24
USCP120.150.2980.0071.930.090.13
NevadaMWC0.390.2784.2178.680.270.15
UCLAP120.070.2695.0089.690.070.21
UC IrvineBW0.370.2352.6360.240.020.05
Portland St.BSky0.230.2157.1457.210.030.03
San Jose St.MWC0.230.2146.6738.45-0.02-0.05
Washington St.P120.240.2047.0633.39-0.01-0.07
VanderbiltSEC0.150.2044.4442.60-0.02-0.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.150.1837.5037.69-0.04-0.04
UtahP120.240.1868.7567.640.090.06
ColoradoP120.150.1750.0052.890.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.320.1561.1163.070.070.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.1553.3361.620.000.03
Utah St.MWC0.170.1543.7543.98-0.02-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.170.1550.0061.630.000.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.150.1516.6720.43-0.10-0.09
Sacramento St.BSky0.220.1420.0024.21-0.13-0.07
StanfordP120.230.1455.5648.060.03-0.01
Arizona St.P120.150.1447.3744.51-0.01-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.220.1440.0040.81-0.04-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1388.2484.520.000.09
SeattleWAC0.150.1240.0037.08-0.03-0.03
UC RiversideBW0.170.1221.4330.89-0.09-0.05
Colorado St.MWC0.080.1252.9450.600.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.160.1268.7570.270.060.05
Fresno St.MWC0.070.1258.8254.690.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.070.1213.3327.07-0.05-0.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.1217.6535.33-0.05-0.03
RiderMAAC0.070.1157.8952.960.010.01
TCUB120.240.1176.4763.630.120.03
CaliforniaP120.230.1168.4264.450.090.03
Kent St.MAC0.150.1147.0648.10-0.01-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.150.1121.4336.55-0.09-0.03
KentuckySEC0.000.1188.8987.510.000.08
South CarolinaSEC0.160.1182.3574.990.100.06
ValparaisoHorz0.070.1177.7877.270.040.06
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.1033.3333.28-0.00-0.03
UMKCWAC0.160.1038.8939.92-0.04-0.02
DenverSum0.160.0957.8955.950.030.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.080.0937.5044.22-0.02-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.160.0962.5063.120.040.02
UC DavisBW0.170.0952.9454.710.010.01
DaytonA100.080.0976.4776.940.040.05
MontanaBSky0.150.0950.0058.290.000.01
Idaho St.BSky0.090.0912.5022.04-0.07-0.05
Nebraska OmahaSum0.150.0952.6353.100.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.150.0947.3745.06-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.150.0918.7527.05-0.10-0.04
Long Beach St.BW0.150.0926.3236.97-0.07-0.02
Oregon St.P120.080.0916.6713.65-0.05-0.06
Air ForceMWC0.080.0941.1837.57-0.01-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.150.0964.7166.910.040.03
New MexicoMWC0.150.0957.8958.030.020.01
BelmontOVC0.150.0975.0074.470.080.04
Central MichiganMAC0.150.0956.2551.810.020.00
Little RockSB0.150.0956.2551.110.020.00
St. BonaventureA100.150.0966.6762.870.050.02
WyomingMWC0.070.0964.7157.710.020.01
DrakeMVC0.230.0929.4127.72-0.09-0.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.150.0958.8260.260.030.02
Kansas St.B120.000.0977.7862.260.000.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.150.0940.0050.05-0.030.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.160.0918.7527.90-0.10-0.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.150.0935.2935.14-0.04-0.03
MississippiSEC0.160.0961.1155.030.040.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0970.5958.250.000.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.150.0931.2538.34-0.05-0.02
OklahomaB120.000.0947.0641.20-0.00-0.02
OregonP120.160.0988.8983.420.120.06
West VirginiaB120.080.0983.3380.700.050.05
ArkansasSEC0.160.0877.7870.290.090.03
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0864.7158.520.020.01
MissouriSEC0.070.0829.4125.93-0.03-0.04
OhioMAC0.150.0866.6767.550.050.03
Texas A&MSEC0.150.0852.9451.020.010.00
Western MichiganMAC0.150.0831.2536.88-0.06-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0822.2225.60-0.04-0.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0853.3356.530.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0850.0066.300.000.03
Chicago St.WAC0.090.0716.6718.29-0.06-0.04
UTSACUSA0.190.0743.7538.29-0.02-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0635.2941.77-0.02-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.080.0623.0830.70-0.04-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0637.5044.55-0.02-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.080.0611.7618.03-0.06-0.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0612.5024.37-0.00-0.03
IUPUISum0.070.0638.8943.16-0.02-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.140.0633.3340.46-0.05-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0640.0038.59-0.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0664.7162.600.020.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0625.0029.15-0.00-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0622.2229.94-0.04-0.02
SamfordSC0.000.0664.7160.050.000.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0614.2929.27-0.06-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0631.5833.41-0.03-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0642.8650.49-0.010.00
UABCUSA0.080.0661.1164.320.020.02
UNLVMWC0.080.0647.3743.68-0.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0626.6727.53-0.00-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0662.5062.710.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.160.0625.0031.85-0.08-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.070.0628.5734.62-0.03-0.02
BaylorB120.080.0694.1280.880.070.04
BrownIvy0.150.0647.0642.91-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.150.0660.0061.270.030.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0611.1116.28-0.00-0.04
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0647.0649.89-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0641.1846.85-0.01-0.00
Green BayHorz0.070.0652.9450.950.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0652.9451.110.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0677.7878.460.040.03
Indiana St.MVC0.150.0633.3335.90-0.05-0.02
IonaMAAC0.070.0660.0063.140.010.02
KansasB120.080.0694.4481.800.070.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0627.7832.97-0.03-0.02
LamarSlnd0.070.0646.6747.34-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.070.0663.1660.780.020.01
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0635.0036.31-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.070.0631.5829.24-0.03-0.02
MassachusettsA100.070.0663.1660.390.020.01
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0675.0074.450.040.03
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0626.3227.72-0.03-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.060.0014.44-0.07-0.04
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0652.9450.580.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0635.0039.76-0.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0655.5656.750.010.01
SienaMAAC0.070.0640.0045.18-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0615.7920.51-0.05-0.03
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0635.2944.13-0.02-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0658.8261.440.010.01
TexasB120.080.0638.8935.38-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.080.0677.7865.330.050.02
TroySB0.070.0647.0648.13-0.00-0.00
WagnerNEC0.070.0637.5047.61-0.02-0.00
YaleIvy0.150.0660.0065.720.030.02
AlabamaSEC0.080.0664.7157.700.020.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0666.6755.390.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.0652.9438.780.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.160.0670.5960.550.070.01
NorthwesternB100.150.0678.9569.160.090.02
Seton HallBE0.150.0666.6758.230.050.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0617.6524.51-0.05-0.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0643.7543.71-0.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0625.0029.54-0.00-0.02
IllinoisB100.000.0661.1153.360.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0631.2545.45-0.00-0.01
MercerSC0.150.0633.3343.06-0.05-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.080.0637.5034.55-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.150.0663.1657.700.040.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0660.0066.110.000.02
Saint LouisA100.000.0627.7824.32-0.00-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.080.0637.5051.21-0.020.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.066.2511.88-0.07-0.04
BuffaloMAC0.000.0637.5044.96-0.00-0.01
HofstraCAA0.070.0342.1143.49-0.01-0.00
HoustonAmer0.070.0368.4268.060.030.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.0361.1159.670.020.01
NebraskaB100.070.0347.0641.67-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.080.0325.0022.32-0.04-0.02
TulsaAmer0.080.0358.8251.180.010.00
Appalachian St.SB0.080.0328.5731.47-0.04-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0375.0074.870.040.01
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0388.8986.560.060.02
ColumbiaIvy0.070.0346.1546.15-0.01-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.070.0321.4323.06-0.04-0.02
DrexelCAA0.070.0333.3333.71-0.02-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.080.0370.5973.700.030.01
Georgia TechACC0.080.0361.1147.020.02-0.00
HartfordAE0.070.0330.0028.54-0.03-0.01
HarvardIvy0.070.0358.3361.560.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.070.0350.0051.660.000.00
IowaB100.080.0355.0049.300.01-0.00
LipscombASun0.080.0344.4450.48-0.010.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0325.0028.40-0.04-0.01
MaineAE0.070.0320.0020.95-0.04-0.02
NavyPat0.070.0344.4446.61-0.01-0.00
New HampshireAE0.070.0356.2558.170.010.00
North CarolinaACC0.080.0384.2180.600.060.02
Notre DameACC0.070.0384.2176.540.050.02
PresbyterianBSth0.080.0312.5013.05-0.06-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0331.5833.34-0.03-0.01
The CitadelSC0.080.0333.3328.99-0.03-0.01
VermontAE0.070.0375.0077.360.040.02
WisconsinB100.080.0383.3381.320.050.02
AmericanPat0.080.0327.7830.73-0.03-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0364.7156.100.000.00
ButlerBE0.070.0384.2178.340.050.02
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0343.7543.70-0.01-0.00
CreightonBE0.080.0394.4484.720.070.02
DukeACC0.080.0377.7873.860.040.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0364.7169.850.020.01
Florida St.ACC0.080.0389.4779.540.060.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0362.5060.090.020.01
IndianaB100.080.0368.4264.610.030.01
LibertyBSth0.080.0347.0651.38-0.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.080.0355.5660.070.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0312.5033.82-0.06-0.01
North FloridaASun0.080.0323.5331.23-0.04-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0360.0053.460.000.00
RadfordBSth0.080.0341.1844.82-0.01-0.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0352.9452.870.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.080.0340.0040.47-0.02-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0336.8433.59-0.02-0.01