Gonzaga

Conference:	WCC
Expected RPI:	6.0
Current RPI:	6
Expected SOS:	75
Current SOS:	75
Current Record:	30-2
Expected Record:	30-2
Current Conf Record:	18-0
Expected Conf Record:	18-0
Probability of Auto Bid:	100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	5-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	9-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	10-0
Current OOC Record:	12-2
Expected OOC Record:	12-2
Expected OOC RPI:	14
Expected OOC SOS:	33

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
30-2	6.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Gonzaga.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Southern Utah (314.0)	BSky	H	103-65	W	100%
11-12	West Virginia (146.0)	B12	H	84-50	W	100%
11-18	South Dakota (240.0)	Sum	H	96-58	W	100%
11-22	Clemson (185.0)	ACC	N	57-49	W	100%
11-23	Oklahoma (39.0)	B12	N	72-47	W	100%
11-25	Davidson (61.0)	SC	N	81-67	W	100%
12-1	Pacific (97.0)	BW	H	85-67	W	100%
12-5	Washington St. (196.0)	P12	A	69-71	W	100%
12-8	Illinois (40.0)	B10	H	74-85	L	0%
12-15	Kansas St. (19.0)	B12	N	68-52	W	100%
12-19	Campbell (289.0)	BSth	H	74-52	W	100%
12-28	Baylor (71.0)	B12	H	94-87	W	100%
12-31	Oklahoma St. (27.0)	B12	A	68-69	W	100%
1-3	Pepperdine (212.0)	WCC	A	62-78	W	100%
1-5	Santa Clara (101.0)	WCC	A	74-81	W	100%
1-10	St. Mary's (29.0)	WCC	H	83-78	W	100%
1-17	Portland (231.0)	WCC	A	49-71	W	100%
1-19	Butler (22.0)	A10	A	64-63	L	0%
1-24	Brigham Young (69.0)	WCC	H	83-63	W	100%
1-26	San Francisco (167.0)	WCC	H	66-52	W	100%
1-31	Loyola Marymount (211.0)	WCC	A	43-88	W	100%
2-2	San Diego (165.0)	WCC	A	63-65	W	100%
2-7	Pepperdine (212.0)	WCC	H	82-56	W	100%
2-9	Loyola Marymount (211.0)	WCC	H	74-55	W	100%
2-14	St. Mary's (29.0)	WCC	A	60-77	W	100%
2-16	San Francisco (167.0)	WCC	A	61-71	W	100%
2-20	Santa Clara (101.0)	WCC	H	85-42	W	100%
2-23	San Diego (165.0)	WCC	H	81-50	W	100%
2-28	Brigham Young (69.0)	WCC	A	65-70	W	100%
3-2	Portland (231.0)	WCC	H	81-52	W	100%
3-9	Loyola Marymount (211.0)	WCC	N	66-48	W	100%
3-11	St. Mary's (29.0)	WCC	N	65-51	W	100%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Gonzaga's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Gonzaga's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Gonzaga.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Gonzaga	WCC	26.41	26.41	93.42	93.42	22.94	22.94
Loyola Marymount	WCC	5.61	5.61	34.48	34.48	-1.74	-1.74
St. Mary's	WCC	5.55	5.55	89.66	89.66	4.40	4.40
San Diego	WCC	4.15	4.15	46.67	46.67	-0.28	-0.28
Portland	WCC	4.03	4.03	32.14	32.14	-1.44	-1.44
Santa Clara	WCC	4.03	4.03	67.86	67.86	1.44	1.44
San Francisco	WCC	4.03	4.03	48.15	48.15	-0.15	-0.15
Brigham Young	WCC	4.01	4.01	68.97	68.97	1.52	1.52
Pepperdine	WCC	4.01	4.01	40.74	40.74	-0.74	-0.74
Baylor	B12	1.83	1.83	56.67	56.67	0.24	0.24
Pacific	BW	1.81	1.81	64.52	64.52	0.53	0.53
Kansas St.	B12	1.81	1.81	81.25	81.25	1.13	1.13
West Virginia	B12	1.81	1.81	41.94	41.94	-0.29	-0.29
Oklahoma St.	B12	1.81	1.81	77.42	77.42	0.99	0.99
Oklahoma	B12	1.78	1.78	66.67	66.67	0.59	0.59
Washington St.	P12	1.67	1.67	41.94	41.94	-0.27	-0.27
Southern Utah	BSky	1.61	1.61	32.14	32.14	-0.58	-0.58
Davidson	SC	1.59	1.59	80.65	80.65	0.97	0.97
Butler	A10	1.59	1.59	75.00	75.00	0.79	0.79
Illinois	B10	1.59	1.59	62.50	62.50	0.40	0.40
South Dakota	Sum	1.59	1.59	29.63	29.63	-0.65	-0.65
Campbell	BSth	1.56	1.56	37.93	37.93	-0.38	-0.38
Clemson	ACC	1.56	1.56	43.33	43.33	-0.21	-0.21
Iowa St.	B12	0.35	0.35	66.67	66.67	0.12	0.12
Kansas	B12	0.29	0.29	85.29	85.29	0.21	0.21
Texas Christian	B12	0.27	0.27	32.26	32.26	-0.10	-0.10
Cal Poly	BW	0.27	0.27	55.17	55.17	0.03	0.03
Texas Tech	B12	0.27	0.27	35.48	35.48	-0.08	-0.08
Texas	B12	0.27	0.27	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.25	0.25	38.46	38.46	-0.06	-0.06
Montana	BSky	0.23	0.23	79.31	79.31	0.14	0.14
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.23	0.23	41.38	41.38	-0.04	-0.04
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.20	0.20	32.26	32.26	-0.07	-0.07
Portland St.	BSky	0.20	0.20	23.08	23.08	-0.11	-0.11
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.20	0.20	34.38	34.38	-0.06	-0.06
St. Louis	A10	0.20	0.20	81.82	81.82	0.12	0.12
Montana St.	BSky	0.19	0.19	39.29	39.29	-0.04	-0.04
Utah St.	WAC	0.18	0.18	66.67	66.67	0.06	0.06
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.17	0.17	31.03	31.03	-0.07	-0.07
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.15	0.15	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.15	0.15	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Idaho St.	BSky	0.13	0.13	17.24	17.24	-0.09	-0.09
Utah Valley	GWC	0.13	0.13	35.71	35.71	-0.04	-0.04
Mississippi	SEC	0.13	0.13	76.47	76.47	0.07	0.07
UC Irvine	BW	0.13	0.13	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.13	0.13	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.13	0.13	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.12	0.12	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.12	0.12	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.12	0.12	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.12	0.12	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.11	0.11	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
North Dakota	BSky	0.10	0.10	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.10	0.10	80.00	80.00	0.06	0.06
California	P12	0.10	0.10	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.10	0.10	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
San Diego St.	MWC	0.10	0.10	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Tulane	CUSA	0.10	0.10	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.10	0.10	14.29	14.29	-0.07	-0.07
Duke	ACC	0.10	0.10	84.38	84.38	0.07	0.07
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.10	0.10	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.10	0.10	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Drexel	CAA	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.10	0.10	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Purdue	B10	0.10	0.10	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.10	0.10	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
Northwestern	B10	0.10	0.10	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Michigan	B10	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Western Illinois	Sum	0.08	0.08	71.43	71.43	0.04	0.04
Oakland	Sum	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.08	0.08	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
IUPUI	Sum	0.08	0.08	13.33	13.33	-0.06	-0.06
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.08	0.08	22.58	22.58	-0.04	-0.04
St. John's	BE	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Stanford	P12	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Presbyterian	BSth	0.08	0.08	17.24	17.24	-0.05	-0.05
New Mexico	MWC	0.08	0.08	85.29	85.29	0.05	0.05
Radford	BSth	0.08	0.08	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.08	0.08	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.08	0.08	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
North Florida	ASun	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.07	0.07	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Utah	P12	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona	P12	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Furman	SC	0.07	0.07	17.24	17.24	-0.05	-0.05
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.07	0.07	85.19	85.19	0.05	0.05
The Citadel	SC	0.07	0.07	21.43	21.43	-0.04	-0.04
Creighton	MVC	0.07	0.07	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
Drake	MVC	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.07	0.07	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Harvard	Ivy	0.07	0.07	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Texas St.	WAC	0.07	0.07	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
UC Davis	BW	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Washington	P12	0.07	0.07	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.07	0.07	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Southern California	P12	0.07	0.07	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.07	0.07	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Xavier	A10	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Indiana	B10	0.07	0.07	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Minnesota	B10	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
American	Pat	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Columbia	Ivy	0.05	0.05	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Holy Cross	Pat	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	28.12	28.12	-0.02	-0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
High Point	BSth	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
San Jose St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.05	0.05	42.31	42.31	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	70.37	70.37	0.02	0.02
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia St.	CAA	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.05	73.53	73.53	0.02	0.02
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Texas A&M	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.05	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Fresno St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.05	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
Oregon	P12	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Siena	MAAC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Tulsa	CUSA	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.05	73.53	73.53	0.02	0.02
Wofford	SC	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Elon	SC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.05	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	67.86	67.86	0.01	0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Denver	WAC	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.03	0.03	53.85	53.85	0.00	0.00
NC Asheville	BSth	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Seattle	WAC	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.01	-0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.03	0.03	14.81	14.81	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Akron	MAC	0.02	0.02	80.65	80.65	0.01	0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.02	0.02	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Idaho	WAC	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.02	0.02	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.02	0.02	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Samford	SC	0.02	0.02	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
South Florida	BE	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.02	0.02	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.02	0.02	20.00	20.00	-0.01	-0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.02	0.02	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.02	0.02	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.02	0.02	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Fordham	A10	0.02	0.02	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Marquette	BE	0.02	0.02	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.02	0.02	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.02	0.02	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
New Orleans	ind	0.02	0.02	18.18	18.18	-0.02	-0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.02	0.02	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.02	0.02	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.02	0.02	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
Temple	A10	0.02	0.02	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.02	0.02	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01