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Through games of Nov 18, 2017.


Gonzaga

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:23.2
Current RPI:134
Expected SOS:115
Current SOS:265
Current Record:3-0
Expected Record:25-4
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:16-2
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-0
Current OOC Record:3-0
Expected OOC Record:9-2
Expected OOC RPI:19
Expected OOC SOS:84



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
29-05.50.59%
28-18.64.34%
27-212.013.10%
26-316.621.46%
25-421.723.73%
24-528.319.23%
23-635.611.00%
22-744.44.55%
21-855.01.53%
20-968.30.37%
19-1076.80.08%
18-1183.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Gonzaga.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Texas Southern (177.8)SWACH97-69W100%0.0
11-14Howard (252.7)MEACH106-69W100%0.0
11-18Utah St. (127.2)MWCH79-66W100%0.0
11-23Ohio St. (85.4)B10N0-074%7.5
11-29Incarnate Word (309.6)SlndH0-0100%32.5
12-1Creighton (36.3)BEH0-069%5.9
12-5Villanova (6.5)BEN0-035%-4.6
12-10Washington (146.1)P12A0-081%10.6
12-16North Dakota (191.6)BSkyH0-098%23.8
12-18IUPUI (279.8)HorzH0-099%27.1
12-21San Diego St. (83.4)MWCA0-071%6.8
12-28Pacific (229.0)WCCH0-097%23.4
12-30Santa Clara (219.0)WCCH0-096%21.4
1-4Pepperdine (239.9)WCCA0-094%18.5
1-6Loyola Marymount (246.0)WCCA0-095%19.3
1-11Portland (268.0)WCCH0-099%26.3
1-13San Francisco (133.9)WCCA0-082%11.0
1-18Saint Mary's (24.7)WCCH0-063%4.1
1-20Santa Clara (219.0)WCCA0-090%15.4
1-25Portland (268.0)WCCA0-095%20.3
1-27San Francisco (133.9)WCCH0-092%17.0
2-1San Diego (158.1)WCCH0-095%19.6
2-3BYU (78.8)WCCH0-085%12.3
2-8Pacific (229.0)WCCA0-093%17.4
2-10Saint Mary's (24.7)WCCA0-044%-1.9
2-15Loyola Marymount (246.0)WCCH0-098%25.3
2-17Pepperdine (239.9)WCCH0-098%24.5
2-22San Diego (158.1)WCCA0-087%13.6
2-24BYU (78.8)WCCA0-070%6.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Gonzaga's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Gonzaga's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Gonzaga.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
GonzagaWCC31.2526.42100.0086.0931.2519.07
BYUWCC0.004.4866.6770.410.001.83
Loyola MarymountWCC0.004.4750.0037.130.00-1.15
San DiegoWCC0.004.45100.0056.200.000.55
PacificWCC0.004.420.0035.560.00-1.28
San FranciscoWCC0.004.4266.6759.500.000.84
Saint Mary'sWCC0.004.41100.0091.470.003.66
PepperdineWCC0.004.410.0034.050.00-1.41
Santa ClaraWCC0.004.410.0045.180.00-0.43
PortlandWCC0.004.400.0031.940.00-1.59
CreightonBE0.001.81100.0068.760.000.68
Utah St.MWC16.671.8166.6751.925.560.07
San Diego St.MWC0.001.8150.0063.990.000.51
Texas SouthernSWAC16.671.810.0052.04-16.670.07
Incarnate WordSlnd0.001.790.0030.850.00-0.68
WashingtonP120.001.7950.0047.740.00-0.08
VillanovaBE0.001.78100.0083.610.001.20
North DakotaBSky0.001.7566.6748.470.00-0.05
Ohio St.B102.081.75100.0061.072.080.39
HowardMEAC16.671.720.0047.73-16.67-0.08
IUPUIHorz0.001.720.0033.390.00-0.57
San Jose St.MWC0.000.370.0021.010.00-0.22
NevadaMWC0.000.30100.0078.910.000.17
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.280.0033.930.00-0.09
Boise St.MWC0.000.25100.0066.490.000.08
Portland St.BSky0.000.25100.0048.130.00-0.01
WyomingMWC0.000.21100.0057.360.000.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.210.0023.910.00-0.11
Weber St.BSky2.080.2166.6766.020.690.07
UC DavisBW0.000.2066.6757.400.000.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.190.0035.130.00-0.06
Air ForceMWC0.000.18100.0044.740.00-0.02
UNLVMWC0.000.18100.0064.720.000.05
UC RiversideBW0.000.1833.3331.840.00-0.07
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.1833.3350.220.000.00
Arizona St.P120.000.18100.0062.760.000.04
StanfordP120.000.1775.0049.860.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.150.0024.440.00-0.08
SeattleWAC0.000.1533.3350.150.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.15100.0058.070.000.02
CaliforniaP120.000.1566.6740.170.00-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.15100.0071.560.000.06
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.1533.3351.560.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.1575.0064.570.000.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC2.080.140.0018.97-2.08-0.09
UtahP120.000.14100.0067.160.000.05
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.130.0023.170.00-0.07
Cal PolyBW0.000.1333.3338.050.00-0.03
IdahoBSky0.000.1350.0060.380.000.03
Fresno St.MWC0.000.1250.0060.060.000.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.1233.3338.880.00-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.000.1250.0051.070.000.00
ButlerBE0.000.1275.0052.360.000.01
DePaulBE0.000.1233.3331.290.00-0.04
MarquetteBE0.000.1250.0050.870.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1250.0069.320.000.05
Seton HallBE0.000.12100.0067.950.000.04
St. John'sBE0.000.12100.0054.590.000.01
XavierBE0.000.12100.0078.990.000.07
Idaho St.BSky0.000.120.0028.170.00-0.05
Oregon St.P120.000.1266.6742.260.00-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.000.1233.3359.680.000.02
Washington St.P122.080.12100.0041.782.08-0.02
ColoradoP120.000.12100.0052.860.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.10100.0078.160.000.05
Colorado St.MWC0.000.1066.6742.170.00-0.01
ValparaisoMVC0.000.09100.0059.760.000.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.090.0027.250.00-0.04
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0933.3327.100.00-0.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.090.0035.610.00-0.03
OaklandHorz0.000.0966.6765.630.000.03
USCP120.000.09100.0073.190.000.04
New MexicoMWC0.000.0950.0050.570.000.00
Montana St.BSky2.080.0933.3350.35-0.690.00
NebraskaB100.000.0966.6740.070.00-0.02
MontanaBSky0.000.0950.0060.130.000.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0975.0071.560.000.04
IndianaB102.080.0933.3341.22-0.69-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.090.0028.770.00-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.090.0042.850.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.090.0036.070.00-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.000.0933.3353.300.000.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0950.0046.150.00-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0950.0060.430.000.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.090.0037.120.00-0.02
OregonP120.000.08100.0076.200.000.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.070.0036.830.00-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.070.0038.960.00-0.02
LamarSlnd0.000.07100.0065.580.000.02
New OrleansSlnd0.000.070.0042.810.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.07100.0069.350.000.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.070.0046.000.00-0.01
HartfordAE0.000.0733.3326.430.00-0.03
BradleyMVC0.000.0775.0048.770.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0733.3341.010.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0650.0043.710.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.060.0051.690.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0633.3333.580.00-0.02
DetroitHorz0.000.060.0029.290.00-0.03
Green BayHorz0.000.060.0044.830.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0650.0048.410.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.06100.0060.010.000.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.06100.0070.960.000.03
Wright St.Horz0.000.060.0041.210.00-0.01
PurdueB100.000.06100.0085.360.000.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0633.3329.980.00-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.060.0040.830.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0633.3353.520.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.000.06100.0059.540.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.06100.0071.010.000.03
HawaiiBW0.000.06100.0053.460.000.00
DaytonA100.000.0666.6762.150.000.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0018.400.00-0.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.06100.0075.130.000.03
HarvardIvy0.000.0633.3354.200.000.00
IowaB100.000.06100.0058.250.000.01
Little RockSB0.000.060.0037.050.00-0.02
MichiganB100.000.06100.0061.710.000.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0666.6748.280.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.060.0049.250.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0650.0036.640.00-0.02
NorthwesternB100.000.0675.0055.040.000.01
PennIvy0.000.0633.3349.350.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.000.06100.0060.400.000.01
RutgersB100.000.06100.0046.880.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.060.0064.600.000.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.0650.0049.480.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.060.0035.450.00-0.02
ClemsonACC0.000.06100.0054.960.000.01
UCLAP120.000.06100.0064.910.000.02
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0633.3346.330.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.000.06100.0047.670.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.000.0633.3346.090.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.06100.0061.320.000.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0022.610.00-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.060.0026.180.00-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.060.0032.770.00-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0633.3352.000.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.060.0044.500.00-0.01
KansasB120.000.06100.0082.910.000.04
MassachusettsA100.000.0650.0042.160.00-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0650.0051.840.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.060.0051.010.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0044.630.00-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.060.0033.850.00-0.02
FloridaSEC0.000.03100.0080.230.000.02
HoustonAmer0.000.0366.6753.670.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.030.0022.920.00-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.030.0047.180.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.030.0044.130.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.000.030.0026.150.00-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.0333.3345.540.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0333.3336.610.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.03100.0038.710.00-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0366.6761.500.000.01
TroySB0.000.0333.3346.410.00-0.00
AmericanPat0.000.030.0030.350.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.030.0028.720.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0333.3342.010.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0333.3350.350.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.03100.0056.360.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0022.840.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.030.0021.590.00-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC2.080.03100.0053.282.080.00
George WashingtonA102.080.0366.6745.880.69-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.030.0048.070.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0375.0056.120.000.00
IllinoisB100.000.03100.0059.240.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0350.0068.280.000.01
La SalleA100.000.0375.0051.210.000.00
LafayettePat0.000.030.0021.970.00-0.02
LibertyBSth0.000.0333.3360.630.000.01
MarylandB100.000.03100.0071.740.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.03100.0039.920.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0350.0077.820.000.02
MinnesotaB100.000.03100.0071.700.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0333.3335.150.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0366.6759.540.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.030.0025.140.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0034.040.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0366.6728.760.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.000.03100.0056.600.000.00
The CitadelSC0.000.0333.3330.460.00-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.030.0039.010.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.030.0045.040.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0333.3335.210.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.0366.6766.970.000.01
YaleIvy0.000.0325.0054.930.000.00
New HampshireAE0.000.030.0048.110.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.000.03100.0083.700.000.02
BaylorB120.000.03100.0061.110.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.030.0031.380.00-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.030.0035.760.00-0.01
SyracuseACC2.080.03100.0062.242.080.01
TCUB120.000.03100.0061.150.000.01
ToledoMAC0.000.03100.0064.120.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0375.0061.940.000.01