Gonzaga

Conference:	WCC
Expected RPI:	25.0
Current RPI:	25
Expected SOS:	78
Current SOS:	78
Current Record:	25-6
Expected Record:	25-6
Current Conf Record:	14-4
Expected Conf Record:	14-4
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	8-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	10-0
Current OOC Record:	11-2
Expected OOC Record:	11-2
Expected OOC RPI:	21
Expected OOC SOS:	50

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
25-6	25.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Gonzaga.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Eastern Washington (209.0)	BSky	H	77-69	W	100%
11-14	Washington St. (175.0)	P12	H	89-81	W	100%
11-19	Hawaii (204.0)	WAC	N	73-54	W	100%
11-26	Western Michigan (205.0)	MAC	H	78-58	W	100%
11-30	Notre Dame (39.0)	BE	H	73-53	W	100%
12-3	Illinois (92.0)	B10	A	82-75	L	0%
12-10	Michigan St. (4.0)	B10	H	67-74	L	0%
12-15	Oral Roberts (51.0)	Sum	H	67-61	W	100%
12-17	Arizona (79.0)	P12	N	71-60	W	100%
12-20	Butler (113.0)	Horz	H	71-55	W	100%
12-22	Air Force (168.0)	MWC	H	70-60	W	100%
12-28	Portland (238.0)	WCC	H	90-51	W	100%
12-31	Xavier (41.0)	A10	A	65-72	W	100%
1-5	Pepperdine (271.0)	WCC	H	73-45	W	100%
1-7	Santa Clara (303.0)	WCC	H	82-60	W	100%
1-12	St. Mary's (28.0)	WCC	A	83-62	L	0%
1-14	Loyola Marymount (118.0)	WCC	A	58-62	W	100%
1-19	San Francisco (136.0)	WCC	H	74-63	W	100%
1-21	San Diego (192.0)	WCC	H	77-60	W	100%
1-26	Portland (238.0)	WCC	A	62-74	W	100%
2-2	Brigham Young (46.0)	WCC	A	83-73	L	0%
2-4	Pepperdine (271.0)	WCC	A	60-72	W	100%
2-9	St. Mary's (28.0)	WCC	H	73-59	W	100%
2-11	Loyola Marymount (118.0)	WCC	H	78-59	W	100%
2-16	Santa Clara (303.0)	WCC	A	62-73	W	100%
2-18	San Francisco (136.0)	WCC	A	66-65	L	0%
2-23	Brigham Young (46.0)	WCC	H	74-63	W	100%
2-25	San Diego (192.0)	WCC	A	57-65	W	100%
2-27	Longwood (332.0)	ind	H	92-60	W	100%
3-3	Brigham Young (46.0)	WCC	N	77-58	W	100%
3-5	St. Mary's (28.0)	WCC	N	78-74	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Gonzaga's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Gonzaga's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Gonzaga.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Gonzaga	WCC	26.48	26.48	81.40	81.40	16.62	16.62
Brigham Young	WCC	5.75	5.75	78.57	78.57	3.29	3.29
St. Mary's	WCC	5.74	5.74	85.19	85.19	4.04	4.04
San Francisco	WCC	4.29	4.29	58.62	58.62	0.74	0.74
Portland	WCC	4.24	4.24	21.43	21.43	-2.42	-2.42
San Diego	WCC	4.23	4.23	40.74	40.74	-0.78	-0.78
Pepperdine	WCC	4.20	4.20	34.62	34.62	-1.29	-1.29
Santa Clara	WCC	4.17	4.17	23.08	23.08	-2.25	-2.25
Loyola Marymount	WCC	4.15	4.15	62.96	62.96	1.08	1.08
Washington St.	P12	1.86	1.86	48.28	48.28	-0.06	-0.06
Eastern Washington	BSky	1.75	1.75	44.83	44.83	-0.18	-0.18
Hawaii	WAC	1.72	1.72	48.28	48.28	-0.06	-0.06
Longwood	ind	1.69	1.69	23.08	23.08	-0.91	-0.91
Xavier	A10	1.69	1.69	65.62	65.62	0.53	0.53
Arizona	P12	1.67	1.67	69.70	69.70	0.66	0.66
Michigan St.	B10	1.64	1.64	78.12	78.12	0.92	0.92
Butler	Horz	1.64	1.64	59.38	59.38	0.31	0.31
Illinois	B10	1.64	1.64	51.61	51.61	0.05	0.05
Oral Roberts	Sum	1.64	1.64	84.38	84.38	1.13	1.13
Air Force	MWC	1.61	1.61	42.31	42.31	-0.25	-0.25
Notre Dame	BE	1.61	1.61	68.75	68.75	0.60	0.60
Western Michigan	MAC	1.61	1.61	40.62	40.62	-0.30	-0.30
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.32	0.32	11.11	11.11	-0.25	-0.25
Montana	BSky	0.27	0.27	79.31	79.31	0.16	0.16
UCLA	P12	0.27	0.27	56.25	56.25	0.03	0.03
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.25	0.25	64.29	64.29	0.07	0.07
Nevada	WAC	0.22	0.22	80.00	80.00	0.13	0.13
Weber St.	BSky	0.21	0.21	78.57	78.57	0.12	0.12
Utah	P12	0.21	0.21	16.67	16.67	-0.14	-0.14
Wisconsin	B10	0.20	0.20	72.73	72.73	0.09	0.09
Seattle	ind	0.20	0.20	37.50	37.50	-0.05	-0.05
Idaho St.	BSky	0.19	0.19	27.59	27.59	-0.09	-0.09
St. Louis	A10	0.18	0.18	77.42	77.42	0.10	0.10
Oregon	P12	0.18	0.18	70.97	70.97	0.08	0.08
New Mexico	MWC	0.17	0.17	81.25	81.25	0.11	0.11
Purdue	B10	0.17	0.17	63.64	63.64	0.05	0.05
Pacific	BW	0.16	0.16	32.14	32.14	-0.06	-0.06
San Jose St.	WAC	0.16	0.16	26.67	26.67	-0.08	-0.08
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.16	0.16	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Arizona St.	P12	0.16	0.16	32.26	32.26	-0.06	-0.06
Baylor	B12	0.16	0.16	78.79	78.79	0.09	0.09
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.16	0.16	72.73	72.73	0.07	0.07
Washington	P12	0.15	0.15	67.74	67.74	0.05	0.05
Valparaiso	Horz	0.15	0.15	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Colorado	P12	0.15	0.15	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.14	0.14	19.23	19.23	-0.09	-0.09
San Diego St.	MWC	0.14	0.14	77.42	77.42	0.08	0.08
Idaho	WAC	0.13	0.13	55.17	55.17	0.01	0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.13	0.13	96.43	96.43	0.12	0.12
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.13	0.13	31.03	31.03	-0.05	-0.05
Utah St.	WAC	0.13	0.13	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Stanford	P12	0.13	0.13	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Oregon St.	P12	0.13	0.13	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.13	0.13	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.12	0.12	79.41	79.41	0.07	0.07
Indiana	B10	0.12	0.12	75.76	75.76	0.06	0.06
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.12	0.12	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.12	0.12	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Boise St.	MWC	0.11	0.11	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.11	0.11	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.11	0.11	75.00	75.00	0.06	0.06
Montana St.	BSky	0.11	0.11	37.04	37.04	-0.03	-0.03
Oklahoma	B12	0.11	0.11	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.11	0.11	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
Central Michigan	MAC	0.11	0.11	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.11	0.11	13.79	13.79	-0.08	-0.08
Missouri St.	MVC	0.11	0.11	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.10	0.10	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
Wright St.	Horz	0.10	0.10	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.10	0.10	64.29	64.29	0.03	0.03
Southern California	P12	0.10	0.10	18.75	18.75	-0.06	-0.06
Iowa	B10	0.10	0.10	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Michigan	B10	0.10	0.10	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
Minnesota	B10	0.10	0.10	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.10	0.10	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.10	0.10	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.10	0.10	29.63	29.63	-0.04	-0.04
Oakland	Sum	0.10	0.10	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Wagner	NEC	0.09	0.09	80.65	80.65	0.05	0.05
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.09	0.09	10.34	10.34	-0.07	-0.07
UC Irvine	BW	0.08	0.08	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Cal Poly	BW	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Denver	SB	0.08	0.08	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.08	0.08	6.67	6.67	-0.07	-0.07
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.08	0.08	30.77	30.77	-0.03	-0.03
Florida St.	ACC	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Maine	AE	0.08	0.08	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.08	0.08	28.00	28.00	-0.03	-0.03
Northwestern	B10	0.07	0.07	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.07	0.07	20.69	20.69	-0.04	-0.04
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.07	0.07	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Dayton	A10	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Louisville	BE	0.07	0.07	74.29	74.29	0.04	0.04
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.07	0.07	13.79	13.79	-0.05	-0.05
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
West Virginia	BE	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Army	Pat	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Christian	MWC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Wyoming	MWC	0.06	0.06	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.06	0.06	25.93	25.93	-0.03	-0.03
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Columbia	Ivy	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.06	0.06	86.21	86.21	0.04	0.04
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
North Texas	SB	0.06	0.06	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.06	0.06	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.06	0.06	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.06	0.06	10.71	10.71	-0.04	-0.04
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Fresno St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia St.	CAA	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	94.12	94.12	0.05	0.05
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.05	0.05	30.77	30.77	-0.02	-0.02
Portland St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UC Davis	BW	0.05	0.05	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Holy Cross	Pat	0.05	0.05	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
California	P12	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Maryland	ACC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Missouri	B12	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
IUPUI	Sum	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Rutgers	BE	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Utah	Sum	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Temple	A10	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Bryant	NEC	0.05	0.05	6.67	6.67	-0.04	-0.04
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Brown	Ivy	0.03	0.03	23.33	23.33	-0.02	-0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.03	0.03	10.34	10.34	-0.02	-0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Navy	Pat	0.03	0.03	7.14	7.14	-0.03	-0.03
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
North Dakota	GWC	0.03	0.03	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.03	0.03	67.86	67.86	0.01	0.01
Grambling	SWAC	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
UC Riverside	BW	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	32.00	32.00	-0.01	-0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.02	0.02	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.02	0.02	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
DePaul	BE	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida International	SB	0.02	0.02	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.02	0.02	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.02	0.02	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.02	0.02	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
La Salle	A10	0.02	0.02	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.02	0.02	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.02	0.02	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.02	0.02	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Pittsburgh	BE	0.02	0.02	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Providence	BE	0.02	0.02	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.02	0.02	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.02	0.02	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.02	0.02	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.02	0.02	93.94	93.94	0.02	0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.02	0.02	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.02	0.02	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Florida	SEC	0.02	0.02	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01