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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Gonzaga

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:20.0
Current RPI:20
Expected SOS:82
Current SOS:82
Current Record:27-6
Expected Record:27-6
Current Conf Record:18-3
Expected Conf Record:18-3
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:8-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:11-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:51
Expected OOC SOS:84



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-620.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Gonzaga.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Bryant (177.0)NECH100-76W100%0.0
11-11Colorado St. (182.0)MWCH93-61W100%0.0
11-17Oakland (181.0)HorzH82-67W100%0.0
11-21Washington St. (224.0)P12H90-74W100%0.0
11-25Dayton (43.0)A10N79-84L0%0.0
11-27Arkansas (77.0)SECN91-81W100%0.0
12-1Coppin St. (261.0)MEACH86-51W100%0.0
12-7New Mexico St. (72.0)WACH80-68W100%0.0
12-10West Virginia (88.0)B12A76-80W100%0.0
12-14South Alabama (280.0)SBN68-59W100%0.0
12-21Kansas St. (51.0)B12N72-62L0%0.0
12-28Santa Clara (210.0)WCCH74-60W100%0.0
12-30San Francisco (68.0)WCCH69-41W100%0.0
1-2Saint Mary's (61.0)WCCH73-51W100%0.0
1-4Pacific (133.0)WCCH86-64W100%0.0
1-9Portland (178.0)WCCA82-73L0%0.0
1-16Pepperdine (159.0)WCCA53-70W100%0.0
1-18Loyola Marymount (179.0)WCCA72-82W100%0.0
1-23San Diego (156.0)WCCH59-56W100%0.0
1-25BYU (31.0)WCCH84-69W100%0.0
1-29Santa Clara (210.0)WCCA52-54W100%0.0
2-1San Francisco (68.0)WCCA65-75W100%0.0
2-5Portland (178.0)WCCH71-66W100%0.0
2-8Memphis (37.0)AmerA60-54L0%0.0
2-13Pepperdine (159.0)WCCH83-68W100%0.0
2-15Loyola Marymount (179.0)WCCH86-67W100%0.0
2-20BYU (31.0)WCCA73-65L0%0.0
2-22San Diego (156.0)WCCA69-66L0%0.0
2-27Pacific (133.0)WCCA53-70W100%0.0
3-1Saint Mary's (61.0)WCCA47-75W100%0.0
3-8Santa Clara (210.0)WCCN77-75W100%0.0
3-10Saint Mary's (61.0)WCCN70-54W100%0.0
3-11BYU (31.0)WCCN75-64W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Gonzaga's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Gonzaga's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Gonzaga.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
GonzagaWCC26.5326.5384.4084.4018.2518.25
BYUWCC5.545.5470.0070.002.212.21
Saint Mary'sWCC5.485.4872.4172.412.462.46
Santa ClaraWCC5.485.4842.8642.86-0.78-0.78
Loyola MarymountWCC4.084.0841.3841.38-0.70-0.70
San FranciscoWCC4.084.0867.8667.861.461.46
PepperdineWCC4.064.0650.0050.000.000.00
PacificWCC4.034.0351.8551.850.150.15
PortlandWCC4.014.0148.2848.28-0.14-0.14
San DiegoWCC4.014.0146.4346.43-0.29-0.29
New Mexico St.WAC1.571.5775.7675.760.810.81
Washington St.P121.571.5731.0331.03-0.59-0.59
Kansas St.B121.561.5661.2961.290.350.35
West VirginiaB121.561.5654.8454.840.150.15
South AlabamaSB1.561.5629.6329.63-0.64-0.64
ArkansasSEC1.541.5467.7467.740.550.55
Colorado St.MWC1.541.5448.2848.28-0.05-0.05
BryantNEC1.521.5256.6756.670.200.20
Coppin St.MEAC1.521.5236.6736.67-0.40-0.40
DaytonA101.521.5268.7568.750.570.57
MemphisAmer1.521.5270.0070.000.610.61
OaklandHorz1.521.5236.6736.67-0.40-0.40
San Jose St.MWC0.220.2217.2417.24-0.15-0.15
OregonP120.220.2271.8871.880.100.10
TexasB120.210.2169.7069.700.080.08
Utah St.MWC0.200.2054.8454.840.020.02
Iowa St.B120.190.1978.7978.790.110.11
Cal PolyBW0.170.1736.6736.67-0.05-0.05
North Dakota St.Sum0.170.1778.5778.570.100.10
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.170.1738.7138.71-0.04-0.04
CaliforniaP120.150.1559.3859.380.030.03
New MexicoMWC0.150.1581.8281.820.090.09
StanfordP120.140.1463.6463.640.040.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.140.1446.1546.15-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.140.1463.6463.640.040.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
IdahoWAC0.140.1445.4545.45-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.130.1346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
UICHorz0.120.1213.7913.79-0.09-0.09
Cal St. FullertonBW0.120.1235.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
UNLVMWC0.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.120.1216.1316.13-0.08-0.08
South FloridaAmer0.120.1237.5037.50-0.03-0.03
AmericanPat0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
TCUB120.120.1224.1424.14-0.06-0.06
UtahP120.120.1263.3363.330.030.03
South CarolinaSEC0.120.1241.1841.18-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.120.1244.8344.83-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.120.1230.3030.30-0.05-0.05
Fresno St.MWC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
BradleyMVC0.100.1037.5037.50-0.03-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.100.1070.3770.370.040.04
San Diego St.MWC0.100.1087.1087.100.070.07
RiceCUSA0.100.1017.8617.86-0.06-0.06
Wright St.Horz0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
Green BayHorz0.100.1077.7877.780.060.06
South Dakota St.Sum0.100.1057.1457.140.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.100.103.573.57-0.09-0.09
UC RiversideBW0.100.1027.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Illinois St.MVC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Notre DameACC0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
UTEPCUSA0.100.1067.7467.740.030.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.100.1062.0762.070.020.02
KansasB120.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
OklahomaB120.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
Texas TechB120.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
Weber St.BSky0.090.0960.7160.710.020.02
George MasonA100.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.090.0959.2659.260.020.02
DrakeMVC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.090.0962.0762.070.020.02
MassachusettsA100.090.0975.0075.000.050.05
Arkansas Little RockSB0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.080.0814.8114.81-0.05-0.05
DetroitHorz0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
DenverSum0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0746.1546.15-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
HamptonMEAC0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
Michigan St.B100.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
RadfordBSth0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0716.6716.67-0.05-0.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
LSUSEC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0732.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
MissouriSEC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
RichmondA100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
MississippiSEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.070.07100.00100.000.070.07
SeattleWAC0.070.0739.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0534.6234.62-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckySB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
Air ForceMWC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
LamarSlnd0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
MontanaBSky0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
WyomingMWC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
UCLAP120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
PurdueB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
MaristMAAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
PittsburghACC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Portland St.BSky0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
RutgersAmer0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
UC DavisBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
USCP120.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.050.0594.1294.120.040.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
AlabamaSEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
DuquesneA100.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
FordhamA100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
Chicago St.WAC0.040.0436.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.040.0425.8125.81-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.040.0434.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
ButlerBE0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.020.0251.8551.850.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.020.0238.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.020.0286.2186.210.020.02
HowardMEAC0.020.0219.3519.35-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
NavyPat0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0283.8783.870.020.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.020.0248.1548.15-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Ohio St.B100.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
SienaMAAC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
ToledoMAC0.020.0281.2581.250.020.02
TowsonCAA0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
UMBCAE0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.020.0251.8551.850.000.00
AuburnSEC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.020.0224.0024.00-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
ClemsonACC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Georgia SouthernSC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSlnd0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0230.7730.77-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
TulaneCUSA0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
UTSACUSA0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
WisconsinB100.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
IPFWSum0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
La SalleA100.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
VCUA100.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
WinthropBSth0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02