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Through games of Jan 20, 2018.


Gonzaga

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:33.1
Current RPI:56
Expected SOS:117
Current SOS:160
Current Record:17-4
Expected Record:26-5
Current Conf Record:7-1
Expected Conf Record:16-2
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-0
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:30
Expected OOC SOS:65



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-425.724.39%
26-531.542.62%
25-638.625.30%
24-746.56.55%
23-855.71.06%
22-966.20.06%
21-1085.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Gonzaga.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Texas Southern (208.4)SWACH97-69W100%0.0
11-14Howard (331.0)MEACH106-69W100%0.0
11-18Utah St. (167.7)MWCH79-66W100%0.0
11-23Ohio St. (21.0)B10N86-59W100%0.0
11-24Florida (25.9)SECN105-111L0%0.0
11-26Texas (46.5)B12N76-71W100%0.0
11-29Incarnate Word (338.3)SlndH103-68W100%0.0
12-1Creighton (29.1)BEH91-74W100%0.0
12-5Villanova (1.9)BEN72-88L0%0.0
12-10Washington (77.2)P12A70-97W100%0.0
12-16North Dakota (215.5)BSkyH89-83W100%0.0
12-18IUPUI (300.2)HorzH101-71W100%0.0
12-21San Diego St. (86.0)MWCA72-70L0%0.0
12-28Pacific (176.2)WCCH81-48W100%0.0
12-30Santa Clara (258.5)WCCH101-52W100%0.0
1-4Pepperdine (307.4)WCCA59-89W100%0.0
1-6Loyola Marymount (263.0)WCCA66-85W100%0.0
1-11Portland (257.0)WCCH103-57W100%0.0
1-13San Francisco (171.2)WCCA65-75W100%0.0
1-18Saint Mary's (35.0)WCCH71-74L0%0.0
1-20Santa Clara (258.5)WCCA60-75W100%0.0
1-25Portland (257.0)WCCA0-098%22.5
1-27San Francisco (171.2)WCCH0-096%20.0
2-1San Diego (141.9)WCCH0-096%19.6
2-3BYU (62.6)WCCH0-086%12.2
2-8Pacific (176.2)WCCA0-094%16.9
2-10Saint Mary's (35.0)WCCA0-054%1.0
2-15Loyola Marymount (263.0)WCCH0-099%27.2
2-17Pepperdine (307.4)WCCH0-0100%28.7
2-22San Diego (141.9)WCCA0-088%13.2
2-24BYU (62.6)WCCA0-070%5.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Gonzaga's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Gonzaga's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Gonzaga.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
GonzagaWCC26.4826.3578.9582.7815.3317.27
BYUWCC0.634.1780.9579.980.392.50
Loyola MarymountWCC2.914.1629.4131.32-1.20-1.55
San DiegoWCC0.514.1363.1661.220.130.93
Saint Mary'sWCC2.764.1190.0090.032.213.29
PacificWCC2.694.1147.3747.40-0.14-0.21
San FranciscoWCC2.774.1152.6352.100.150.17
PepperdineWCC2.754.1111.1119.67-2.14-2.49
PortlandWCC2.704.1029.4129.32-1.11-1.70
Santa ClaraWCC5.074.1037.5035.50-1.27-1.19
Incarnate WordSlnd2.511.708.3320.96-2.09-0.99
San Diego St.MWC2.441.7056.2561.460.310.39
CreightonBE2.451.6978.9573.131.420.78
Utah St.MWC2.451.6947.3747.07-0.13-0.10
Texas SouthernSWAC2.441.6922.2245.73-1.35-0.14
WashingtonP122.451.6773.6863.481.160.45
VillanovaBE2.381.6794.4489.992.121.33
FloridaSEC2.471.6572.2270.601.100.68
North DakotaBSky2.441.6431.2536.05-0.92-0.46
Ohio St.B102.441.6485.0079.071.710.95
HowardMEAC2.381.6111.1128.28-1.85-0.70
IUPUIHorz2.381.6129.4130.99-0.98-0.61
TexasB122.381.6166.6759.540.790.31
San Jose St.MWC0.380.3311.7612.81-0.29-0.25
NevadaMWC0.310.2885.7182.070.220.18
Portland St.BSky0.320.2358.8263.210.060.06
Boise St.MWC0.260.2378.9576.970.150.12
Sacramento St.BSky0.250.2216.6724.46-0.17-0.11
StanfordP120.300.2155.0050.370.030.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.260.1930.0036.48-0.10-0.05
Weber St.BSky0.190.1956.2557.400.020.03
WyomingMWC0.250.1961.1156.830.060.03
Washington St.P120.320.1950.0042.180.00-0.03
UC DavisBW0.240.1958.8262.450.040.05
Cal St. FullertonBW0.190.1756.2556.810.020.02
UC RiversideBW0.190.1717.6523.89-0.12-0.09
Air ForceMWC0.060.1737.5031.76-0.01-0.06
UNLVMWC0.120.1773.6865.280.060.05
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.120.1670.5969.610.050.06
DePaulBE0.130.1642.1134.32-0.02-0.05
Arizona St.P120.190.1678.9576.130.110.08
ButlerBE0.240.1666.6763.070.080.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.130.1411.1115.30-0.10-0.10
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.190.1438.8946.03-0.04-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.130.1460.0062.030.030.03
SeattleWAC0.180.1457.8954.500.030.01
GeorgetownBE0.180.1368.4254.090.070.01
CaliforniaP120.190.1336.8431.12-0.05-0.05
GeorgiaSEC0.130.1366.6755.930.040.02
ProvidenceBE0.180.1370.0060.460.070.03
BaylorB120.180.1361.1156.090.040.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.120.130.0010.65-0.12-0.10
UtahP120.120.1361.1158.950.030.02
AlabamaSEC0.060.1368.4258.990.020.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.230.1228.5731.27-0.10-0.04
IdahoBSky0.200.1264.7166.850.060.04
Cal PolyBW0.190.1123.5328.21-0.10-0.05
Northern ColoradoBSky0.130.1158.8257.140.020.02
Fresno St.MWC0.130.1166.6763.420.040.03
Idaho St.BSky0.070.1143.7540.93-0.01-0.02
OklahomaB120.070.1177.7867.900.040.04
Oregon St.P120.070.1157.8950.810.010.00
Long Beach St.BW0.120.1140.0043.34-0.02-0.01
ColoradoP120.060.1160.0053.730.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.1183.3384.230.040.07
Oklahoma St.B120.130.1168.4254.090.050.01
MarquetteBE0.060.1168.4260.530.020.02
Seton HallBE0.120.1175.0067.890.060.04
St. Francis PANEC0.120.1152.9459.250.010.02
St. John'sBE0.120.1147.3742.18-0.01-0.02
XavierBE0.120.1185.7180.080.090.06
KansasB120.180.1084.2179.740.130.06
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.220.0943.7549.10-0.03-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.150.0945.0049.27-0.02-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.130.0921.0523.50-0.07-0.05
OaklandHorz0.060.0961.9065.160.010.03
Colorado St.MWC0.130.0845.0041.34-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.130.0850.0047.670.00-0.00
ValparaisoMVC0.190.0850.0051.360.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0837.5033.78-0.02-0.03
MontanaBSky0.130.0870.5973.140.050.04
North CarolinaACC0.120.0880.0075.050.070.04
USCP120.190.0871.4368.300.080.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0818.7536.760.00-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.070.0845.0048.56-0.01-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0815.7920.92-0.04-0.05
NebraskaB100.130.0866.6759.780.040.02
BelmontOVC0.120.0871.4374.650.050.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.130.0810.0019.62-0.10-0.05
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0857.1460.400.010.02
Texas A&MSEC0.130.0868.4263.980.050.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.070.0866.6766.010.020.03
IndianaB100.060.0857.8950.680.010.00
RadfordBSth0.120.0861.1160.790.030.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.120.0812.5025.47-0.09-0.04
New HampshireAE0.180.0829.4138.15-0.08-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.120.0830.0039.93-0.05-0.02
ClemsonACC0.180.0884.2173.210.120.04
MichiganB100.120.0875.0070.270.060.03
OregonP120.060.0865.0063.830.020.02
TCUB120.130.0873.6865.590.060.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0752.9452.620.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.075.8819.370.00-0.04
LamarSlnd0.090.0750.0054.850.000.01
New OrleansSlnd0.090.0737.5045.22-0.02-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.090.0780.0078.860.050.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.077.6923.280.00-0.04
UTEPCUSA0.150.0633.3334.11-0.05-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0620.0023.36-0.04-0.03
DetroitHorz0.070.0621.0525.98-0.04-0.03
Green BayHorz0.130.0625.0027.94-0.07-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0642.1145.97-0.01-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0645.0047.05-0.01-0.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.070.0666.6773.240.020.03
Wright St.Horz0.070.0668.4269.240.020.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.150.0650.0051.480.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.067.1414.82-0.05-0.04
BradleyMVC0.140.0665.0057.870.040.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.140.0629.4133.94-0.06-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.070.0617.6519.33-0.04-0.04
HartfordAE0.070.0652.6346.880.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.140.0644.4450.31-0.020.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.130.0636.8432.79-0.03-0.02
HawaiiBW0.130.0668.7563.960.050.02
PurdueB100.070.0690.4888.380.050.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0670.0071.230.000.02
Little RockSB0.000.0622.2225.260.00-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0655.5656.710.000.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0643.7554.09-0.010.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0644.4446.640.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0630.0032.53-0.03-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.120.0550.0052.440.000.00
PennIvy0.130.0564.7162.780.040.01
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0560.0060.340.010.01
DuquesneA100.060.0570.0058.100.020.01
Texas St.SB0.060.0557.8950.210.010.00
NortheasternCAA0.120.0563.1663.180.030.01
NorthwesternB100.120.0555.0050.370.010.00
UCLAP120.120.0565.0062.040.040.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.0510.5316.750.00-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0516.6724.290.00-0.03
DaytonA100.060.0547.3750.95-0.000.00
DukeACC0.130.0589.4785.190.100.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.0536.8444.12-0.02-0.01
HarvardIvy0.060.0537.5046.63-0.01-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0547.3745.870.00-0.00
IowaB100.060.0547.6244.03-0.00-0.01
Iowa St.B120.060.0561.1147.260.01-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0538.8943.43-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0573.6862.720.000.01
KentuckySEC0.060.0573.6867.950.030.02
MassachusettsA100.000.0550.0046.780.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.060.0552.6345.860.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0557.1453.220.000.00
Penn St.B100.000.0561.9055.770.000.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0521.0539.47-0.04-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0552.9460.270.000.01
RutgersB100.060.0557.8947.140.01-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0561.1151.900.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.060.0527.7840.97-0.03-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.060.0572.2268.920.030.02
Texas TechB120.060.0578.9571.810.040.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0550.0055.650.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0536.8435.55-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.060.0584.2178.170.040.03
HoustonAmer0.090.0378.9572.990.050.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0352.9455.040.000.00
UMKCWAC0.090.0321.0524.71-0.05-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.070.0361.1158.750.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0323.5328.70-0.04-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0342.8635.25-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0372.2272.970.030.01
TroySB0.070.0335.2942.76-0.02-0.00
AmericanPat0.060.0326.3228.14-0.03-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0327.7831.12-0.03-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.039.5217.940.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.030.009.150.00-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0346.6746.98-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.060.0345.0043.49-0.01-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0370.0068.220.030.01
LibertyBSth0.060.0352.9457.320.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0329.4139.620.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0327.7834.50-0.03-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0327.7831.67-0.03-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.060.0335.0026.14-0.02-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0322.2227.33-0.03-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.060.0311.1117.96-0.05-0.02
YaleIvy0.060.0341.1847.51-0.01-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0333.3337.22-0.02-0.01
ArizonaP120.000.0380.0078.980.000.02
ArkansasSEC0.060.0368.4264.200.020.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0389.4777.030.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0389.4785.520.050.02
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0320.0032.26-0.04-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0352.6347.390.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.060.0373.6869.610.030.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0341.1843.41-0.01-0.00
HofstraCAA0.060.0357.8959.470.010.00
IllinoisB100.000.0347.3744.270.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.060.0325.0028.25-0.03-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0316.6724.91-0.04-0.01
La SalleA100.060.0340.0042.72-0.01-0.00
LafayettePat0.060.0322.2227.51-0.03-0.01
LipscombASun0.060.0352.9459.360.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0352.6355.290.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0377.7871.650.030.01
LSUSEC0.000.0361.1153.160.000.00
MarylandB100.060.0370.0065.320.020.01
Miami OHMAC0.060.0347.0641.45-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.060.0385.0083.180.040.02
MinnesotaB100.060.0363.6457.640.020.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0372.2258.940.030.00
MissouriSEC0.060.0366.6763.200.020.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0325.0028.02-0.03-0.01
North FloridaASun0.060.0331.5835.15-0.02-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0347.0652.51-0.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.060.0350.0051.650.000.00
SyracuseACC0.060.0368.4261.270.020.01
TempleAmer0.060.0352.6351.730.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0335.2940.48-0.02-0.00
The CitadelSC0.060.0318.7518.40-0.04-0.02
ToledoMAC0.060.0366.6767.690.020.01
VCUA100.060.0360.0059.690.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.060.0368.4257.780.020.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0368.4270.810.020.01
William & MaryCAA0.060.0364.7159.980.020.01
WisconsinB100.060.0350.0046.260.00-0.00