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Through games of Nov 22, 2014.


Mississippi

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:82.3
Current RPI:323
Expected SOS:57
Current SOS:334
Current Record:2-1
Expected Record:17-13
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-1
Current OOC Record:2-1
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:86
Expected OOC SOS:124



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-58.70.03%
24-614.80.12%
23-716.10.37%
22-822.91.27%
21-930.42.84%
20-1039.56.80%
19-1149.511.42%
18-1262.215.00%
17-1375.917.17%
16-1491.516.72%
15-15107.612.97%
14-16125.28.21%
13-17143.04.06%
12-18159.42.07%
11-19177.30.68%
10-20192.40.16%
9-21208.20.09%
8-22229.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Mississippi.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Charleston Southern (168.3)BSthH65-66L0%0.0
11-17Troy (243.2)SBA64-74W100%0.0
11-20Southern (284.4)SWACH69-38W100%0.0
11-23Northern Arizona (185.2)BSkyH0-085%12.6
11-28Creighton (103.0)BEN0-056%1.9
12-4TCU (157.5)B12H0-072%7.1
12-7Oregon (39.4)P12A0-027%-7.5
12-13Western Kentucky (179.3)CUSAH0-084%12.2
12-18Coastal Carolina (149.0)BSthH0-081%10.4
12-22Southeast Missouri St. (269.3)OVCN0-087%13.3
12-30Dayton (42.8)A10A0-031%-6.0
1-3Austin Peay (306.5)OVCH0-095%19.9
1-6Kentucky (3.6)SECA0-08%-16.6
1-10South Carolina (83.4)SECH0-058%2.6
1-14LSU (62.1)SECH0-059%2.8
1-17Arkansas (31.7)SECA0-023%-8.9
1-20Georgia (67.0)SECA0-034%-4.8
1-24Florida (32.0)SECH0-043%-2.2
1-28Mississippi St. (179.8)SECH0-080%10.3
1-31Missouri (99.4)SECA0-042%-2.5
2-4Texas A&M (49.5)SECH0-051%0.3
2-7Auburn (157.1)SECA0-057%2.1
2-12Florida (32.0)SECA0-022%-9.4
2-14Arkansas (31.7)SECH0-044%-1.7
2-19Mississippi St. (179.8)SECA0-060%3.1
2-21Tennessee (163.7)SECH0-077%8.7
2-25Georgia (67.0)SECH0-058%2.4
2-28LSU (62.1)SECA0-036%-4.4
3-3Alabama (68.3)SECA0-036%-4.2
3-7Vanderbilt (143.7)SECH0-073%7.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Mississippi's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Mississippi's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Mississippi.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MississippiSEC36.1126.1558.8253.696.371.93
ArkansasSEC0.004.00100.0074.160.001.93
LSUSEC0.003.9375.0061.120.000.87
GeorgiaSEC4.173.9366.6758.511.390.67
Mississippi St.SEC0.003.93100.0046.500.00-0.27
FloridaSEC0.003.9366.6767.150.001.35
AuburnSEC0.002.3866.6740.310.00-0.46
VanderbiltSEC0.002.38100.0048.590.00-0.07
Texas A&MSEC0.002.3866.6765.890.000.76
MissouriSEC0.002.3866.6749.270.00-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.002.3750.0043.390.00-0.31
KentuckySEC0.002.35100.0085.430.001.67
South CarolinaSEC0.002.3550.0054.760.000.22
AlabamaSEC0.002.29100.0058.600.000.39
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.001.8133.3343.02-0.00-0.25
Austin PeayOVC0.001.790.0032.24-0.00-0.64
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.001.760.0065.41-0.000.54
TroySB16.671.760.0046.92-16.67-0.11
DaytonA100.001.7566.6769.660.000.69
Charleston SouthernBSth16.671.730.0053.17-16.670.11
Western KentuckyCUSA0.001.7033.3342.74-0.00-0.25
Northern ArizonaBSky0.001.7033.3356.13-0.000.21
SouthernSWAC16.671.700.0040.15-16.67-0.33
CreightonBE0.001.67100.0056.260.000.21
OregonP120.001.67100.0071.370.000.71
TCUB120.001.67100.0055.470.000.18
Iowa St.B120.000.20100.0061.830.000.05
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.1966.6768.980.000.07
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.180.0037.22-0.00-0.04
BaylorB120.000.17100.0069.300.000.07
Kansas St.B120.000.1766.6754.240.000.01
XavierBE0.000.17100.0077.070.000.09
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.150.0019.92-0.00-0.09
Murray St.OVC0.000.1550.0071.840.000.07
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.1550.0062.580.000.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.150.0033.25-0.00-0.05
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.150.0028.50-0.00-0.06
Florida St.ACC0.000.1533.3346.79-0.00-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.150.0049.23-0.00-0.00
UCLAP120.000.15100.0062.510.000.04
Southern MissCUSA0.000.1450.0053.430.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.140.0018.48-0.00-0.09
Saint LouisA100.000.14100.0065.140.000.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.140.0044.91-0.00-0.01
KansasB120.000.1450.0061.790.000.03
Texas TechB120.000.1466.6746.900.00-0.01
CampbellBSth0.000.130.0030.19-0.00-0.05
High PointBSth0.000.1375.0055.790.000.02
LibertyBSth0.000.1333.3335.41-0.00-0.04
LongwoodBSth0.000.1333.3322.74-0.00-0.07
PresbyterianBSth0.000.130.0024.77-0.00-0.07
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.1333.3345.63-0.00-0.01
RadfordBSth0.000.1333.3348.73-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.120.0033.98-0.00-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1250.0033.700.00-0.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1250.0037.760.00-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.000.120.0042.47-0.00-0.02
LipscombASun0.000.120.0042.80-0.00-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.120.0041.59-0.00-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.120.0034.98-0.00-0.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA2.780.1250.0045.600.00-0.01
MercerSC0.000.1250.0052.260.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.12100.0080.090.000.07
ColoradoP120.000.1166.6760.720.000.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.11100.0053.080.000.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.110.0025.03-0.00-0.06
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.1133.3345.85-0.00-0.01
Oregon St.P120.000.11100.0049.460.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.000.11100.0052.590.000.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.110.0063.44-0.000.03
GeorgetownBE0.000.11100.0062.070.000.03
Seton HallBE0.000.11100.0056.980.000.02
Weber St.BSky0.000.110.0048.20-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.000.1150.0051.120.000.00
OklahomaB120.000.1150.0058.120.000.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.11100.0045.790.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.1150.0041.630.00-0.02
West VirginiaB120.000.11100.0067.570.000.04
WinthropBSth0.000.0950.0060.360.000.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0966.6773.760.000.04
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0933.3321.74-0.00-0.05
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.090.0047.90-0.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.090.0031.92-0.00-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.09100.0061.500.000.02
North FloridaASun0.000.090.0047.13-0.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.09100.0070.030.000.04
MarshallCUSA0.000.0966.6751.200.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.09100.0064.090.000.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0975.0057.060.000.01
IllinoisB100.000.09100.0067.100.000.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.090.0025.50-0.00-0.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.090.0039.15-0.00-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.000.0933.3364.76-0.000.03
TulaneAmer0.000.0950.0035.040.00-0.03
UTSACUSA0.000.0950.0037.430.00-0.02
ArizonaP120.000.09100.0069.320.000.03
Arizona St.P120.000.09100.0056.330.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.09100.0076.190.000.05
Portland St.BSky0.000.09100.0050.420.000.00
YaleIvy0.000.0966.6762.540.000.02
ButlerBE0.000.09100.0061.850.000.02
UABCUSA0.000.090.0043.18-0.00-0.01
Washington St.P120.000.0933.3327.58-0.00-0.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0825.0056.39-0.000.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0875.0060.410.000.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0866.6767.990.000.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0833.3344.56-0.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.080.0033.14-0.00-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.080.0053.00-0.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.08100.0069.670.000.03
TexasB120.000.08100.0081.740.000.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.070.0032.69-0.00-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.06100.0059.190.000.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0650.0053.000.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.060.0046.56-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.060.0057.63-0.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.060.0031.61-0.00-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0625.0059.16-0.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0039.36-0.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0625.0049.94-0.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.000.0666.6748.850.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0633.3327.10-0.00-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0625.0033.97-0.00-0.02
FIUCUSA0.000.06100.0043.160.00-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0633.3336.99-0.00-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA2.780.0675.0071.101.390.03
MinnesotaB100.000.0666.6761.350.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0650.0037.110.00-0.02
VCUA100.000.06100.0073.570.000.03
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0025.43-0.00-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.000.060.0046.61-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.000.06100.0052.610.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.000.06100.0087.190.000.04
Idaho St.BSky0.000.060.0028.34-0.00-0.02
La SalleA100.000.06100.0053.840.000.00
Miami FLACC0.000.06100.0073.530.000.03
North DakotaBSky0.000.060.0044.01-0.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.060.0053.10-0.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0650.0046.250.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.060.0019.17-0.00-0.04
St. BonaventureA100.000.0666.6752.550.000.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0633.3364.19-0.000.02
USCP120.000.0650.0027.780.00-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.000.06100.0051.050.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.0675.0057.480.000.01
WashingtonP120.000.06100.0057.540.000.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0666.6744.970.00-0.01
FordhamA100.000.060.0035.11-0.00-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.06100.0078.630.000.03
New OrleansSlnd0.000.060.0033.75-0.00-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.06100.0071.830.000.02
TulsaAmer0.000.0666.6753.050.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0633.3359.57-0.000.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.060.0023.51-0.00-0.03
MarquetteBE0.000.0633.3340.91-0.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0650.0041.720.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.06100.0052.540.000.00
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0065.270.000.02
DePaulBE0.000.06100.0037.850.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0566.6766.670.000.02
SMUAmer0.000.0550.0068.880.000.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0566.6749.370.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.000.03100.0062.400.000.01
WoffordSC0.000.0375.0075.140.000.02
Wright St.Horz4.170.0366.6758.651.390.01
BrownIvy0.000.0325.0037.31-0.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0366.6752.030.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0350.0051.860.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.030.0034.81-0.00-0.01
SamfordSC0.000.0325.0031.88-0.00-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0366.6748.330.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.030.0034.07-0.00-0.01
CornellIvy0.000.0340.0040.58-0.00-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0350.0052.290.000.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0375.0054.790.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0024.17-0.00-0.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0333.3327.11-0.00-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0350.0044.850.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.03100.0069.180.000.01
WyomingMWC0.000.03100.0070.850.000.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0350.0044.170.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.000.0375.0069.830.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0033.68-0.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0350.0053.040.000.00
DetroitHorz0.000.0333.3354.50-0.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0049.250.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0366.6768.230.000.01
ElonCAA0.000.0333.3341.21-0.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.030.0033.08-0.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0325.0019.94-0.00-0.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0366.6776.510.000.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.0325.0051.56-0.000.00
HartfordAE0.000.0375.0042.500.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.000.0350.0047.120.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0325.0035.65-0.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0366.6734.100.00-0.01
MichiganB100.000.03100.0064.370.000.01
MontanaBSky0.000.030.0048.00-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0333.3349.42-0.00-0.00
PennIvy0.000.030.0025.60-0.00-0.01
PurdueB100.000.03100.0060.550.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.03100.0056.240.000.00
RichmondA100.000.0366.6767.450.000.01
RutgersB100.000.0350.0037.560.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.03100.0046.040.00-0.00
StanfordP120.000.0375.0071.090.000.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0375.0053.860.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.000.0350.0063.070.000.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.030.0055.87-0.000.00
UMKCWAC0.000.0333.3355.40-0.000.00
UtahP120.000.0366.6769.700.000.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0366.6754.020.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.03100.0085.100.000.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0325.0035.61-0.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.000.030.0027.82-0.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.000.0333.3325.18-0.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.0366.6752.320.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.030.0072.02-0.000.01
South DakotaSum0.000.030.0042.57-0.00-0.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.03100.0030.790.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0366.6760.610.000.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0350.0062.620.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0350.0049.760.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.03100.0073.290.000.01