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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.


Mississippi

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:70.0
Current RPI:51
Expected SOS:34
Current SOS:47
Current Record:14-8
Expected Record:17-13
Current Conf Record:4-4
Expected Conf Record:7-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.48%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-0
Current OOC Record:10-4
Expected OOC Record:10-4
Expected OOC RPI:61
Expected OOC SOS:120



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-927.40.24%
20-1034.92.05%
19-1145.09.79%
18-1256.823.15%
17-1369.629.89%
16-1484.024.47%
15-1597.59.27%
14-16110.61.13%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Mississippi.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Louisiana Monroe (323.3)SBH60-38W100%0.0
11-14Grambling (341.3)SWACH69-39W100%0.0
11-18Drake (135.2)MVCN63-59W100%0.0
11-20Marquette (15.5)BEN96-66L0%0.0
11-21Texas Christian (123.7)MWCN80-69W100%0.0
11-25Miami FL (64.4)ACCH64-61W100%0.0
12-1DePaul (187.2)BEA68-70W100%0.0
12-4Penn St. (163.2)B10A70-72W100%0.0
12-10Mississippi Valley St. (158.6)SWACH80-56W100%0.0
12-14Louisiana Lafayette (159.3)SBH66-54W100%0.0
12-17Southern Mississippi (15.8)CUSAA86-82L0%0.0
12-21Middle Tennessee (49.6)SBN56-68L0%0.0
12-30Dayton (77.1)A10A62-50L0%0.0
1-3Southern Methodist (214.4)CUSAH50-48W100%0.0
1-7Louisiana St. (85.2)SECA81-55L0%0.0
1-11Arkansas (65.9)SECH71-63W100%0.0
1-14Auburn (147.6)SECA69-68L0%0.0
1-18Mississippi St. (41.7)SECH75-68W100%0.0
1-21Georgia (132.0)SECA63-66W100%0.0
1-26Florida (14.9)SECH60-64L0%0.0
1-28South Carolina (172.1)SECH66-62W100%0.0
2-4Alabama (30.4)SECA69-67L0%0.0
2-9Mississippi St. (41.7)SECA0-026%-7.1
2-11Auburn (147.6)SECH0-077%7.9
2-16Vanderbilt (31.5)SECH0-039%-3.1
2-18Kentucky (4.3)SECA0-04%-19.6
2-22Tennessee (136.4)SECA0-037%-3.6
2-25Louisiana St. (85.2)SECH0-056%1.7
2-28Arkansas (65.9)SECA0-030%-5.7
3-3Alabama (30.4)SECH0-033%-4.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Mississippi's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Mississippi's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Mississippi.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MississippiSEC26.1226.1164.4456.427.553.35
ArkansasSEC2.634.0072.7367.231.201.38
Louisiana St.SEC2.683.9957.1456.240.380.50
Mississippi St.SEC2.573.9781.8274.761.641.97
AlabamaSEC2.583.9666.6768.070.861.43
AuburnSEC2.533.9354.5547.890.23-0.17
VanderbiltSEC0.452.2769.5766.030.180.73
TennesseeSEC0.302.2445.4544.03-0.03-0.27
FloridaSEC2.582.2481.8276.891.641.21
KentuckySEC0.402.2495.8392.450.371.90
South CarolinaSEC2.522.2442.8640.93-0.36-0.41
GeorgiaSEC2.422.2147.6242.62-0.12-0.33
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC2.531.8652.3860.160.120.38
GramblingSWAC2.481.8615.7916.31-1.70-1.25
Louisiana MonroeSB2.371.839.099.32-1.94-1.49
MarquetteBE2.321.7878.2675.181.310.89
Louisiana LafayetteSB2.371.7556.5256.710.310.24
Middle TennesseeSB2.321.7582.6184.221.511.20
Texas ChristianMWC2.331.7360.0051.310.470.05
Southern MethodistCUSA2.271.7240.0039.21-0.45-0.37
DaytonA102.321.7259.0959.620.420.33
DePaulBE2.321.7252.3844.310.11-0.20
Southern MississippiCUSA2.271.7085.0081.551.591.07
Penn St.B102.271.6943.4839.96-0.30-0.34
DrakeMVC2.271.6754.5551.880.210.06
Miami FLACC2.271.6768.4262.170.840.41
North TexasSB0.300.2850.0050.010.000.00
HoustonCUSA0.270.2547.6244.63-0.01-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.300.2552.3852.870.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.260.2317.3924.41-0.17-0.12
Arkansas Little RockSB0.200.2043.4844.25-0.03-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.250.2025.0023.75-0.12-0.10
Florida AtlanticSB0.250.2036.3639.72-0.07-0.04
DenverSB0.200.1770.8372.230.080.08
Western KentuckySB0.150.1734.7834.48-0.05-0.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.210.1719.0525.52-0.13-0.08
Alabama A&MSWAC0.160.1717.6527.10-0.10-0.08
MemphisCUSA0.220.1769.5771.510.090.07
TroySB0.240.1728.5730.17-0.10-0.07
Texas SouthernSWAC0.160.1731.8242.13-0.06-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.210.1739.1342.12-0.05-0.03
OaklandSum0.160.1748.0050.21-0.010.00
North FloridaASun0.210.1745.8346.68-0.02-0.01
RutgersBE0.210.1750.0046.810.00-0.01
South FloridaBE0.250.1754.5548.600.02-0.00
Seton HallBE0.200.1765.2263.740.060.05
Arkansas St.SB0.190.1537.5038.33-0.05-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.200.1456.5254.220.030.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.160.1416.6723.02-0.11-0.08
Florida InternationalSB0.240.1433.3337.16-0.08-0.04
UABCUSA0.150.1440.9139.82-0.03-0.03
Boise St.MWC0.160.1442.8641.13-0.02-0.03
Texas El PasoCUSA0.100.1443.4843.31-0.01-0.02
VirginiaACC0.210.1481.8276.800.130.08
Louisiana TechWAC0.210.1442.8643.45-0.03-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.100.1472.7371.710.040.06
North CarolinaACC0.160.1486.9683.160.120.09
PurdueB100.160.1465.2260.580.050.03
West VirginiaBE0.110.1465.2265.170.030.04
GeorgetownBE0.150.1480.9577.380.090.08
NorthwesternB100.150.1461.9055.140.040.01
ConnecticutBE0.050.1468.1863.990.020.04
LouisvilleBE0.100.1478.2672.660.060.06
Alabama St.SWAC0.160.1230.0037.30-0.06-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.110.1235.0040.78-0.03-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.170.1245.0046.13-0.02-0.01
Central FloridaCUSA0.160.1171.4366.600.070.04
Colorado St.MWC0.160.1166.6760.800.050.02
RiceCUSA0.110.1147.6246.46-0.01-0.01
TulsaCUSA0.160.1160.8759.050.040.02
MarylandACC0.110.1159.0950.820.020.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.150.1141.1842.61-0.03-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.100.1182.6180.420.070.07
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.150.1127.7829.58-0.07-0.05
DuquesneA100.140.1159.0956.350.030.01
Texas A&MB120.150.1152.3846.150.01-0.01
CharlotteA100.110.1150.0049.450.00-0.00
Notre DameBE0.150.1165.2262.650.050.03
XavierA100.100.1165.2263.740.030.03
South Carolina UpstateASun0.150.1154.5556.090.010.01
CincinnatiBE0.100.1169.5765.470.040.03
DetroitHorz0.100.1147.8349.03-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.150.1117.3922.00-0.10-0.06
St. John'sBE0.100.1143.4840.28-0.01-0.02
WisconsinB100.150.1175.0073.970.070.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.100.1150.0051.730.000.00
MichiganB100.100.1172.7366.810.040.04
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.100.0982.6181.440.070.05
Texas TechB120.160.0931.8225.98-0.06-0.04
Air ForceMWC0.100.0947.3742.16-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.160.0944.4441.71-0.02-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.100.0945.4544.02-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.170.0950.0048.900.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.050.0959.0959.720.010.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.110.0969.5768.900.040.03
TulaneCUSA0.110.0961.9058.590.030.01
Austin PeayOVC0.090.0933.3335.97-0.03-0.02
NC GreensboroSC0.100.0934.7833.46-0.03-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.100.0830.4326.44-0.04-0.04
LamarSlnd0.100.0861.9067.230.020.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0870.8364.420.020.02
Southern CaliforniaP120.160.0825.0025.13-0.08-0.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.150.0856.5253.100.020.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.100.0840.0041.30-0.02-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.110.0845.4540.70-0.01-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.110.0835.0035.26-0.03-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.100.0855.0054.480.010.01
Utah ValleyGWC0.110.0854.5557.690.010.01
WinthropBSth0.150.0834.7834.61-0.05-0.03
AkronMAC0.100.0868.1867.910.040.03
IowaB100.100.0854.1749.440.01-0.00
NebraskaB100.100.0852.3846.680.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.150.0868.1869.680.050.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.084.359.66-0.09-0.07
MinnesotaB100.150.0869.5761.310.060.02
PittsburghBE0.100.0860.8758.160.020.01
ProvidenceBE0.100.0856.5250.270.010.00
VillanovaBE0.150.0845.4546.08-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.150.0886.9685.460.110.06
SyracuseBE0.150.0895.8392.010.140.07
ArizonaP120.100.0866.6768.550.030.03
IndianaB100.090.0875.0075.780.050.04
BelmontASun0.090.0669.5773.280.040.03
BradleyMVC0.050.0624.0024.86-0.03-0.03
CreightonMVC0.100.0687.5085.410.070.04
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0662.5062.060.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.100.0654.1757.200.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0681.8281.030.030.04
Northern IowaMVC0.100.0662.5061.500.020.01
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0685.7178.050.040.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0634.7832.06-0.02-0.02
WyomingMWC0.050.0676.1970.730.030.02
Arizona St.P120.110.0630.4331.43-0.04-0.02
ClemsonACC0.110.0650.0048.360.00-0.00
DukeACC0.000.0686.3683.090.000.04
Iowa St.B120.100.0673.9168.430.050.02
MassachusettsA100.060.0673.9168.580.030.02
Murray St.OVC0.100.06100.0094.550.100.05
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.110.0619.0524.61-0.07-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.050.0647.8343.66-0.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0638.1042.78-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.100.0650.0056.760.000.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0672.2271.970.020.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0619.0522.37-0.03-0.03
HawaiiWAC0.050.0657.1453.120.010.00
Kansas St.B120.050.0672.7368.280.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.068.7011.67-0.04-0.04
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0671.4373.350.020.03
St. LouisA100.100.0677.2777.670.050.03
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.050.0680.0078.060.030.03
WoffordSC0.100.0659.0957.930.020.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0527.2735.02-0.00-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.050.0530.0034.15-0.02-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.0562.5062.490.020.01
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.100.0556.5257.720.010.01
BaylorB120.050.0590.9183.850.040.04
LafayettePat0.050.0543.4842.95-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.090.0526.0928.60-0.05-0.02
OklahomaB120.050.0559.0954.700.010.01
RadfordBSth0.050.058.7013.10-0.04-0.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0552.3857.860.000.01
Utah St.WAC0.050.0550.0052.930.000.00
Washington St.P120.060.0350.0048.170.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SC0.060.0335.0039.29-0.02-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0365.0066.700.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0321.0522.46-0.03-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0327.7829.87-0.02-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0340.9138.38-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.WAC0.050.0339.1344.52-0.01-0.00
Houston BaptistGWC0.050.0325.0028.52-0.02-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0371.4369.050.020.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0359.0957.760.010.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0361.9063.520.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0313.6416.14-0.03-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0380.7780.750.030.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0368.0070.030.020.01
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0356.5253.770.010.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0347.6247.18-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0360.8759.760.010.01
UCLAP120.050.0354.5556.790.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.0356.5255.200.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0347.6248.82-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.050.0368.4266.450.020.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0375.0074.610.030.01
Chicago St.GWC0.050.034.769.95-0.05-0.02
College of CharlestonSC0.000.0358.3359.980.000.01
ColoradoP120.050.0366.6762.650.020.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0335.2939.85-0.02-0.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.000.0352.3852.860.000.00
ElonSC0.050.0350.0047.590.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0354.5554.300.000.00
FordhamA100.000.0340.9134.50-0.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.050.0347.6248.83-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0334.7832.08-0.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0330.0030.06-0.02-0.01
La SalleA100.050.0370.8368.820.020.01
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.050.0319.0521.29-0.03-0.02
MercerASun0.050.0370.8371.640.020.01
NC AshevilleBSth0.000.0368.1867.640.000.01
NC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0339.1336.10-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.035.267.30-0.05-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0340.9143.66-0.01-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.050.0320.8320.60-0.03-0.02
RichmondA100.000.0350.0048.490.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0310.0014.93-0.04-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0373.9175.490.020.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0360.0059.060.010.01
TempleA100.050.0377.2775.060.030.01
The CitadelSC0.000.039.5211.44-0.00-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0334.7837.24-0.02-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0352.6348.410.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.000.0373.9175.000.000.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0381.8280.430.000.02
CornellIvy0.050.0336.8441.45-0.01-0.00
DavidsonSC0.000.0376.1976.760.000.01
HartfordAE0.050.0317.3920.97-0.03-0.02
IllinoisB100.050.0372.7364.430.020.01
KansasB120.000.0378.2678.390.000.02
Long IslandNEC0.050.0370.8371.050.020.01
Longwoodind0.000.0330.0027.84-0.00-0.01
Loyola MDMAAC0.000.0377.2773.450.000.01
MaristMAAC0.000.0334.7833.43-0.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0376.1972.910.000.01
MonmouthNEC0.000.0328.0028.91-0.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0330.0031.54-0.02-0.01
Old DominionCAA0.000.0360.0058.290.000.00
OregonP120.000.0369.5764.530.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0363.6463.160.000.01
PortlandWCC0.000.0321.7421.70-0.00-0.02
RiderMAAC0.050.0337.5038.52-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.000.0333.3335.26-0.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.050.0331.8231.31-0.02-0.01
WashingtonP120.050.0369.5766.540.020.01
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.050.0335.0039.38-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0341.6740.61-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.050.0372.2263.190.020.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0350.0051.530.000.00