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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Mississippi

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:134.5
Current RPI:45
Expected SOS:52
Current SOS:26
Current Record:5-2
Expected Record:14-17
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-1
Current OOC Record:5-2
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:106
Expected OOC SOS:40



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-831.00.01%
22-939.00.04%
21-1046.70.15%
20-1153.90.59%
19-1266.41.84%
18-1379.14.06%
17-1492.58.50%
16-15106.712.94%
15-16121.116.88%
14-17137.518.59%
13-18153.515.37%
12-19170.611.10%
11-20187.86.10%
10-21204.82.72%
9-22217.70.81%
8-23233.20.25%
7-24246.20.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Mississippi.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Tennessee Martin (178.1)OVCH86-83W100%0.0
11-14Massachusetts (108.4)A10H90-88W100%0.0
11-18Oral Roberts (305.9)SumN95-88W100%0.0
11-20Saint Joseph's (121.4)A10N81-68W100%0.0
11-21Creighton (25.4)BEN86-77L0%0.0
11-24Montana (251.5)BSkyH86-81W100%0.0
11-30Middle Tennessee (55.1)CUSAH62-77L0%0.0
12-3Memphis (120.6)AmerH0-052%0.6
12-11Virginia Tech (64.9)ACCA0-017%-11.4
12-15Murray St. (139.5)OVCH0-062%3.7
12-19Bradley (274.4)MVCH0-085%12.2
12-22South Alabama (126.4)SBH0-068%5.5
12-29Kentucky (7.3)SECH0-08%-16.6
1-3Florida (9.6)SECA0-07%-17.7
1-7Auburn (96.0)SECA0-030%-6.4
1-11Georgia (65.1)SECH0-040%-3.0
1-14South Carolina (17.4)SECA0-09%-16.2
1-17Tennessee (165.2)SECH0-063%4.0
1-21Missouri (167.3)SECA0-036%-4.3
1-25Texas A&M (42.0)SECH0-027%-7.4
1-28Baylor (11.5)B12H0-016%-11.8
1-31Mississippi St. (171.1)SECH0-068%5.5
2-4Vanderbilt (72.4)SECA0-024%-8.4
2-8Tennessee (165.2)SECA0-043%-2.2
2-11Auburn (96.0)SECH0-049%-0.2
2-14LSU (94.2)SECH0-052%0.7
2-18Arkansas (54.3)SECA0-020%-10.0
2-21Mississippi St. (171.1)SECA0-048%-0.7
2-25Missouri (167.3)SECH0-056%1.9
3-1Alabama (102.9)SECA0-025%-8.0
3-4South Carolina (17.4)SECH0-020%-10.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Mississippi's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Mississippi's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Mississippi.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MississippiSEC28.7626.1061.2940.066.49-5.19
South CarolinaSEC0.003.84100.0080.450.002.34
Mississippi St.SEC0.003.8171.4343.070.00-0.53
TennesseeSEC0.003.8125.0033.56-0.00-1.25
AuburnSEC0.003.7983.3354.840.000.37
MissouriSEC0.003.7850.0045.360.00-0.35
AlabamaSEC0.002.2866.6755.380.000.24
KentuckySEC0.452.25100.0086.070.451.63
VanderbiltSEC0.002.2557.1447.970.00-0.09
LSUSEC0.002.2571.4349.850.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.002.2566.6765.860.000.71
GeorgiaSEC0.002.2566.6754.200.000.19
ArkansasSEC0.002.2383.3362.280.000.55
FloridaSEC0.002.2287.5074.730.001.10
Tennessee MartinOVC7.141.7085.7156.265.100.21
Middle TennesseeCUSA7.141.7083.3372.084.760.75
Murray St.OVC0.511.7042.8662.79-0.070.43
Oral RobertsSum7.651.690.0020.01-7.65-1.02
MassachusettsA107.141.67100.0060.017.140.33
MemphisAmer0.001.6785.7160.130.000.34
Saint Joseph'sA107.141.6660.0048.391.43-0.05
BaylorB120.601.64100.0074.140.600.79
CreightonBE7.141.64100.0075.857.140.85
MontanaBSky7.741.6416.6749.02-5.16-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.001.6483.3362.170.000.40
Virginia TechACC0.001.6485.7162.230.000.40
BradleyMVC0.001.6150.0029.760.00-0.65
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.2250.0043.490.00-0.03
Georgia St.SB0.000.2160.0067.410.000.07
OklahomaB120.000.1983.3351.920.000.01
ClemsonACC0.000.1666.6753.460.000.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1450.0038.430.00-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.000.1440.0041.65-0.00-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.1450.0066.170.000.04
UMKCWAC0.510.1471.4356.050.220.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1450.0046.670.00-0.01
BelmontOVC0.000.1440.0061.37-0.000.03
FIUCUSA0.000.1416.6733.69-0.00-0.04
Southern MissCUSA0.000.1433.3323.33-0.00-0.07
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.130.0034.01-0.00-0.04
XavierBE0.000.13100.0074.800.000.07
TexasB120.000.1350.0036.240.00-0.04
VCUA100.000.1385.7178.150.000.08
OregonP120.000.1371.4366.730.000.04
Seton HallBE0.000.1371.4354.520.000.01
TCUB120.000.13100.0059.480.000.03
Texas TechB120.000.1385.7163.780.000.04
St. BonaventureA100.000.1366.6770.740.000.05
UABCUSA0.000.1357.1461.940.000.03
UCFAmer0.000.1383.3374.620.000.06
North FloridaASun0.000.1314.2931.71-0.00-0.05
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.1157.1440.590.00-0.02
DenverSum0.000.1133.3341.11-0.00-0.02
Little RockSB0.000.1160.0057.900.000.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1114.2928.66-0.00-0.05
Morehead St.OVC0.000.1120.0041.93-0.00-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.1185.7168.390.000.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.510.1183.3370.360.340.04
EvansvilleMVC0.510.1133.3340.39-0.17-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC1.190.1166.6754.420.400.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.1142.8646.78-0.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.1157.1464.940.000.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1183.3380.700.000.07
Georgia TechACC0.000.1166.6739.720.00-0.02
Kansas St.B120.000.1185.7155.890.000.01
LipscombASun0.000.1114.2933.07-0.00-0.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.1142.8634.17-0.00-0.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.1128.5739.44-0.00-0.02
DuquesneA100.450.1137.5034.65-0.11-0.03
DavidsonA100.000.1183.3368.880.000.04
KansasB120.000.1185.7176.170.000.06
MarquetteBE0.000.1171.4363.090.000.03
North CarolinaACC0.000.1185.7180.010.000.06
North Carolina St.ACC1.620.1171.4350.570.690.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.1150.0027.250.00-0.05
DaytonA100.000.1166.6772.440.000.05
La SalleA100.000.1160.0051.780.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.1171.4370.330.000.04
South FloridaAmer0.000.1166.6732.240.00-0.04
TulaneAmer0.000.1114.2926.81-0.00-0.05
George MasonA100.000.1157.1442.940.00-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.1171.4356.280.000.01
HoustonAmer0.000.1083.3376.370.000.06
TempleAmer1.190.1071.4363.570.510.03
ConnecticutAmer0.000.1033.3338.76-0.00-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0914.2937.52-0.00-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.000.0866.6770.930.000.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0850.0061.810.000.02
South DakotaSum0.510.0857.1447.220.07-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.080.0013.30-0.00-0.06
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0875.0064.960.000.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0850.0061.590.000.02
RichmondA100.000.0857.1448.600.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0820.0036.00-0.00-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.450.0820.0034.39-0.27-0.03
TulsaAmer0.600.0860.0039.200.12-0.02
ArizonaP120.000.0885.7170.990.000.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0825.0038.72-0.00-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0840.0067.95-0.000.03
MichiganB100.000.0871.4366.530.000.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0866.6775.370.000.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.080.0027.77-0.00-0.04
SyracuseACC0.000.0866.6770.140.000.03
ToledoMAC1.620.0842.8650.36-0.230.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.0825.0043.26-0.00-0.01
VillanovaBE0.000.08100.0083.120.000.05
West VirginiaB120.000.0883.3380.550.000.05
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0871.4386.030.000.06
WisconsinB100.510.0875.0073.840.260.04
ButlerBE0.000.08100.0075.690.000.04
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0866.6769.810.000.03
FordhamA100.000.0857.1443.680.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0857.1444.160.00-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.08100.0091.060.000.07
Holy CrossPat0.600.0842.8647.69-0.09-0.00
Iowa St.B120.000.0871.4368.970.000.03
LouisvilleACC0.000.0885.7175.950.000.04
Miami FLACC0.000.0871.4365.740.000.03
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0871.4371.570.000.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.080.0038.35-0.00-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0883.3356.560.000.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0833.3326.75-0.00-0.04
USC UpstateASun0.000.0833.3338.20-0.00-0.02
MercerSC0.000.0850.0053.050.000.00
IUPUISum0.000.0628.5747.72-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0633.3348.73-0.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.000.060.0022.69-0.00-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0657.1447.320.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.600.0683.3378.430.400.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0650.0045.410.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0650.0043.310.00-0.01
TroySB0.000.0633.3332.23-0.00-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0566.6761.340.000.01
StetsonASun0.000.0528.5728.26-0.00-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.450.0533.3341.52-0.15-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.450.0516.6730.27-0.30-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.450.0525.0024.28-0.22-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.000.0550.0052.330.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.000.0550.0058.980.000.01
DePaulBE0.000.0580.0035.960.00-0.02
DrakeMVC0.000.050.0021.30-0.00-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.000.0550.0047.560.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.000.0557.1442.660.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0533.3346.81-0.00-0.00
LehighPat0.000.0533.3367.01-0.000.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0583.3359.600.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0550.0033.010.00-0.02
NebraskaB100.000.0550.0043.610.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0540.0057.49-0.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0566.6765.810.000.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0528.5723.76-0.00-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0533.3327.13-0.00-0.02
St. John'sBE0.000.0528.5733.92-0.00-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0557.1467.020.000.02
VermontAE0.000.0562.5071.630.000.02
VirginiaACC0.000.05100.0082.550.000.03
Wake ForestACC0.000.0571.4352.370.000.00
WoffordSC0.000.050.0033.58-0.00-0.02
Arizona St.P120.000.0557.1436.050.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0566.6751.090.000.00
DukeACC0.000.0587.5078.680.000.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0550.0071.330.000.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0585.7162.410.000.01
High PointBSth0.000.0550.0051.260.000.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0557.1440.550.00-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.050.0042.55-0.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0550.0058.600.000.01
UCLAP120.000.05100.0083.550.000.04
USCP120.510.05100.0075.380.510.03
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0585.7174.430.000.03
Washington St.P121.020.0550.0036.820.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0566.6751.460.000.00
IdahoBSky0.000.0540.0050.88-0.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0514.2929.81-0.00-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0533.3333.15-0.00-0.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0585.7165.670.000.02
Montana St.BSky0.000.0550.0062.460.000.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.0525.0040.37-0.00-0.01
PurdueB100.000.0571.4374.450.000.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.050.0021.30-0.00-0.03
SMUAmer0.000.0557.1469.300.000.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0525.0056.71-0.000.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0520.0054.94-0.000.01
WyomingMWC0.510.0560.0048.590.10-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0333.3343.64-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.000.030.0019.51-0.00-0.02
Green BayHorz0.000.0333.3348.71-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.0371.4355.750.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.450.030.0024.25-0.45-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0316.6731.91-0.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0357.1459.480.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0320.0032.60-0.00-0.01
SamfordSC0.000.0357.1455.810.000.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0371.4349.590.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0342.8637.60-0.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0383.3369.840.000.01
AmericanPat0.000.0316.6735.65-0.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.510.0340.0050.91-0.100.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0316.6743.29-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0017.30-0.00-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0362.5056.500.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.600.0342.8642.47-0.09-0.00
DelawareCAA0.000.0340.0040.65-0.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0342.8636.82-0.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.000.0320.0049.38-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0320.0048.38-0.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.000.0333.3331.87-0.00-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0325.0024.66-0.00-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.510.0333.3340.49-0.17-0.01
MaineAE0.000.0316.6725.61-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0034.23-0.00-0.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0375.0070.470.000.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0371.4358.670.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0340.0030.80-0.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0075.010.000.01
PennIvy0.000.0340.0057.97-0.000.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0385.7155.550.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0325.0063.95-0.000.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0385.7169.010.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.0325.0056.92-0.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0340.0043.86-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.03100.0069.770.000.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0340.0027.05-0.00-0.01
UMBCAE0.000.0380.0055.340.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0350.0064.840.000.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.510.0383.3377.170.340.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0328.5728.46-0.00-0.01
VMISC0.000.030.0021.15-0.00-0.02
BucknellPat0.000.0375.0067.660.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0385.7180.960.000.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0375.0047.510.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.600.030.0043.04-0.60-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.030.0037.92-0.00-0.01
IowaB100.000.0342.8644.33-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0328.5730.29-0.00-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0020.01-0.00-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0312.5048.98-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0024.32-0.00-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0333.3353.29-0.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0314.2928.15-0.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0316.6740.71-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.000.0350.0049.010.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.0350.0035.230.00-0.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0350.0047.990.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0340.0037.44-0.00-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0337.5036.24-0.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.030.0024.19-0.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0023.26-0.00-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.030.0033.43-0.00-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.600.0325.0040.81-0.30-0.00
WagnerNEC0.600.0333.3353.85-0.200.00