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Through games of Feb 9, 2016.


Mississippi

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:111.4
Current RPI:87
Expected SOS:125
Current SOS:114
Current Record:15-9
Expected Record:18-13
Current Conf Record:5-6
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:95
Expected OOC SOS:280



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-966.10.14%
21-1073.82.49%
20-1185.712.28%
19-1299.327.36%
18-13114.831.32%
17-14131.419.72%
16-15147.16.00%
15-16163.00.68%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Mississippi.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Northwestern St. (332.6)SlndH90-76W100%0.0
11-16Georgia Southern (250.5)SBH82-72W100%0.0
11-19George Mason (187.8)A10N68-62L0%0.0
11-20Towson (155.2)CAAN60-76W100%0.0
11-22Seton Hall (46.9)BEN75-63L0%0.0
11-25Georgia St. (146.4)SBH68-59W100%0.0
11-28Bradley (304.2)MVCA54-67W100%0.0
12-5Massachusetts (195.1)A10A64-74W100%0.0
12-12Southeast Missouri St. (332.3)OVCA64-75W100%0.0
12-15Louisiana Tech (129.4)CUSAH99-80W100%0.0
12-18Memphis (112.9)AmerA79-85W100%0.0
12-22Troy (291.6)SBH83-80W100%0.0
1-2Kentucky (17.5)SECA83-61L0%0.0
1-7Alabama (80.8)SECH74-66W100%0.0
1-9Georgia (84.8)SECH72-71W100%0.0
1-13LSU (82.1)SECA90-81L0%0.0
1-16Florida (24.3)SECH71-80L0%0.0
1-19South Carolina (47.2)SECH74-77L0%0.0
1-23Mississippi St. (162.8)SECA83-77L0%0.0
1-27Auburn (167.7)SECH80-63W100%0.0
1-30Kansas St. (61.6)B12A69-64L0%0.0
2-3Missouri (221.1)SECA73-76W100%0.0
2-6Vanderbilt (54.2)SECH85-78W100%0.0
2-9Florida (24.3)SECA77-72L0%0.0
2-13Arkansas (101.6)SECH0-049%-0.2
2-16Texas A&M (22.8)SECA0-011%-13.4
2-20Auburn (167.7)SECA0-058%2.1
2-23Missouri (221.1)SECH0-080%9.2
2-27Georgia (84.8)SECA0-035%-4.1
3-2Mississippi St. (162.8)SECH0-060%2.7
3-5Tennessee (111.3)SECA0-034%-4.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Mississippi's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Mississippi's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Mississippi.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MississippiSEC26.2226.1163.2160.106.925.27
GeorgiaSEC2.533.8861.9057.000.600.54
AuburnSEC2.603.8540.9136.45-0.47-1.04
MissouriSEC2.453.8136.3631.73-0.67-1.39
FloridaSEC4.443.7863.6463.991.211.06
Mississippi St.SEC2.403.7540.9141.90-0.44-0.61
South CarolinaSEC2.452.3085.7178.391.751.31
ArkansasSEC0.472.2850.0053.170.000.14
Texas A&MSEC0.412.2778.2677.490.231.25
AlabamaSEC2.452.2561.9055.090.580.23
VanderbiltSEC2.402.2559.0961.860.440.53
TennesseeSEC0.452.2250.0047.530.00-0.11
KentuckySEC2.492.2273.9171.701.190.96
LSUSEC2.442.2263.6458.930.670.40
Georgia SouthernSB2.231.7842.1140.42-0.35-0.34
TroySB2.241.7625.0027.66-1.12-0.78
Kansas St.B122.181.7559.0956.910.400.24
Georgia St.SB2.191.7361.1158.240.490.28
Seton HallBE2.221.7272.7368.941.010.65
MemphisAmer2.231.7063.6462.850.610.44
Northwestern St.Slnd2.131.6918.7527.73-1.33-0.75
BradleyMVC2.171.6713.0413.35-1.61-1.22
George MasonA102.131.6730.4331.46-0.83-0.62
TowsonCAA2.171.6768.1861.900.790.40
Louisiana TechCUSA2.131.6475.0071.211.060.70
MassachusettsA102.081.6442.8640.69-0.30-0.31
Southeast Missouri St.OVC2.131.6414.2916.38-1.52-1.10
UT ArlingtonSB0.400.2568.1871.320.150.11
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.250.2357.8961.740.040.05
Arkansas St.SB0.250.2242.8639.22-0.04-0.05
Oklahoma St.B120.270.2145.8342.26-0.02-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.220.2142.8646.35-0.03-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.200.2033.3334.22-0.07-0.06
BaylorB120.200.1972.7366.400.090.06
XavierBE0.180.1987.5081.810.140.12
Appalachian St.SB0.160.1726.0929.17-0.07-0.07
Arkansas Little RockSB0.210.1790.4886.910.170.13
Texas St.SB0.260.1736.8437.57-0.07-0.04
Southern MissCUSA0.300.1731.5832.01-0.11-0.06
DaytonA100.230.1686.9682.300.170.10
South FloridaAmer0.230.1620.0019.68-0.14-0.10
UABCUSA0.150.1482.6179.370.100.08
Missouri St.MVC0.180.1439.1337.81-0.04-0.03
ClemsonACC0.190.1458.3358.310.030.02
SouthernSWAC0.140.1361.9065.300.030.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.180.1347.6252.05-0.010.01
George WashingtonA100.140.1378.2674.410.080.06
Saint Joseph'sA100.180.1382.6178.910.120.08
Texas TechB120.090.1359.0953.180.020.01
RichmondA100.180.1354.5554.470.020.01
New OrleansSlnd0.090.1227.7834.43-0.04-0.04
Murray St.OVC0.090.1245.4549.67-0.01-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.140.1137.5040.54-0.04-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.1147.8350.19-0.000.00
ArizonaP120.150.1179.1778.350.090.06
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.100.1171.4369.410.040.04
WinthropBSth0.150.1165.0063.410.040.03
EvansvilleMVC0.090.1175.0076.250.050.06
Georgia TechACC0.050.1152.1751.510.000.00
La SalleA100.090.1120.0020.46-0.06-0.06
Wichita St.MVC0.180.1173.9176.720.090.06
St. John'sBE0.140.1125.0023.40-0.07-0.06
Florida St.ACC0.130.1169.5764.890.050.03
Miami FLACC0.130.1182.6177.520.090.06
TulaneAmer0.090.1133.3332.36-0.03-0.04
MercerSC0.090.1169.5769.020.030.04
Saint LouisA100.140.1036.3633.54-0.04-0.03
TCUB120.040.1045.8339.34-0.00-0.02
KansasB120.130.1082.6179.190.090.06
OklahomaB120.180.1086.9682.650.130.07
TexasB120.090.1066.6762.200.030.03
West VirginiaB120.180.1079.1778.090.100.06
Central ArkansasSlnd0.110.0925.0030.01-0.05-0.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.110.0917.6529.05-0.07-0.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.110.0918.1821.15-0.07-0.05
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0914.2924.89-0.04-0.05
Southern IllinoisMVC0.090.0872.0070.540.040.03
North TexasCUSA0.100.0833.3333.04-0.03-0.03
DelawareCAA0.130.0821.7423.34-0.08-0.04
DrexelCAA0.140.0813.6418.15-0.10-0.05
HofstraCAA0.090.0865.2264.220.030.02
Wright St.Horz0.140.0856.5257.010.020.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.140.0863.6460.920.040.02
James MadisonCAA0.090.0870.8369.490.040.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.090.0825.0033.22-0.05-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.0838.1037.68-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.140.0864.0062.090.040.02
DePaulBE0.090.0833.3334.01-0.03-0.03
HarvardIvy0.090.0835.0038.50-0.03-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.090.0875.0070.990.050.03
Ohio St.B100.140.0860.0055.500.030.01
ButlerBE0.000.0869.5767.150.000.03
FordhamA100.090.0855.0052.190.010.00
Illinois St.MVC0.090.0854.1750.940.010.00
MarquetteBE0.140.0862.5056.050.030.01
Northern IowaMVC0.130.0854.1755.020.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.090.0858.3357.170.020.01
St. BonaventureA100.090.0871.4368.940.040.03
DavidsonA100.090.0860.0057.940.020.01
UCFAmer0.090.0850.0044.860.00-0.01
VCUA100.040.0873.9173.970.020.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.090.0845.4547.57-0.01-0.00
Iowa St.B120.050.0873.9170.050.020.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.090.0829.1733.74-0.04-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0850.0049.090.00-0.00
PurdueB100.130.0880.0077.930.080.04
Wake ForestACC0.090.0843.4840.46-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.090.0843.4846.22-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0772.2275.580.030.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0640.9143.54-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0617.3920.65-0.03-0.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0676.1972.280.030.03
Old DominionCUSA0.100.0656.5262.790.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.090.0625.0024.33-0.05-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0652.0050.250.000.00
IUPUISum0.100.0640.0039.81-0.02-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0666.6762.650.020.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0668.1866.650.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0686.9686.660.030.04
ElonCAA0.050.0652.1750.420.000.00
High PointBSth0.050.0655.0057.460.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0645.8346.64-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.050.0668.0067.980.020.02
RiceCUSA0.050.0628.5729.66-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0628.0030.73-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0676.1973.420.020.03
UTEPCUSA0.050.0652.1751.920.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.050.0671.4369.830.020.02
UTSACUSA0.050.0613.6413.63-0.04-0.04
DukeACC0.100.0575.0071.800.050.02
USC UpstateASun0.050.0522.7323.24-0.03-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.0514.2920.67-0.06-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0522.7327.22-0.03-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.090.0515.0018.09-0.07-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.000.0550.0051.210.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0560.0060.080.010.01
ColoradoP120.050.0569.5765.330.020.02
DrakeMVC0.040.0520.8323.21-0.03-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0552.3854.080.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.050.0556.0052.830.010.00
HawaiiBW0.050.0584.2181.660.030.03
Indiana St.MVC0.040.0552.1751.910.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.040.0543.4842.66-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0558.3360.730.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.0543.4850.65-0.010.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0528.5726.98-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0545.4554.14-0.000.00
UMKCWAC0.050.0528.5732.73-0.02-0.02
VillanovaBE0.090.0587.5086.910.070.04
Boston UniversityPat0.090.0554.1755.600.010.01
DuquesneA100.040.0560.8756.430.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0521.7423.40-0.05-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.090.0547.3749.93-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.090.0539.1341.10-0.02-0.01
TulsaAmer0.050.0565.2261.470.010.01
VirginiaACC0.090.0583.3378.470.060.03
WagnerNEC0.090.0563.6465.020.020.02
Arizona St.P120.040.0554.1751.690.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0524.0025.67-0.02-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.090.0572.0071.540.040.02
ConnecticutAmer0.090.0573.9172.480.040.02
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0543.4841.96-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.0578.2676.810.000.03
HoustonAmer0.050.0569.5766.580.020.02
IllinoisB100.050.0545.8344.13-0.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0550.0049.830.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.090.0542.8642.05-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.090.0580.0081.600.050.03
NavyPat0.090.0562.5062.370.020.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0556.5256.320.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.0529.1733.12-0.04-0.02
North FloridaASun0.050.0565.2267.130.010.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0560.0057.610.010.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0564.0062.060.010.01
SMUAmer0.050.0590.9186.110.040.04
TempleAmer0.050.0563.6459.810.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0565.2266.200.000.02
VermontAE0.090.0552.0054.860.000.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0335.0034.80-0.02-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0350.0049.790.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0352.9452.080.000.00
LamarSlnd0.060.0330.0029.27-0.02-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0345.0049.25-0.01-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0336.8442.89-0.01-0.00
BelmontOVC0.050.0366.6766.540.020.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0350.0045.840.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0339.1338.57-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0350.0052.370.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0333.3335.06-0.02-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0314.2915.46-0.03-0.02
StetsonASun0.050.0323.8127.67-0.03-0.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0331.8230.06-0.02-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0334.7840.91-0.02-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0350.0051.920.000.00
FIUCUSA0.050.0340.9145.30-0.01-0.00
IdahoBSky0.050.0354.5554.950.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0350.0054.200.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.050.0334.7837.17-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0319.0525.89-0.03-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.039.0917.13-0.04-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0334.7837.05-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.050.0341.6742.60-0.01-0.00
UMBCAE0.050.0324.0026.33-0.02-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0345.4546.24-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.040.0360.8757.190.010.00
Boise St.MWC0.040.0363.6462.590.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0331.5831.75-0.02-0.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0336.3638.92-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.050.0325.0029.30-0.02-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0347.8348.87-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0345.4551.34-0.000.00
Notre DameACC0.050.0370.8367.790.020.01
OregonP120.050.0382.6179.220.030.02
RutgersB100.050.0321.7420.37-0.03-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0340.9143.29-0.01-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0328.5731.30-0.02-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0382.6181.140.000.02
AlbanyAE0.040.0376.0076.310.020.01
AmericanPat0.050.0330.4331.91-0.02-0.01
ArmyPat0.000.0354.1754.580.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.000.0330.0034.55-0.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0323.8126.56-0.00-0.01
ColgatePat0.040.0343.4844.80-0.01-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0352.3850.420.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0366.6765.220.020.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0347.6245.85-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0359.0959.420.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.040.0322.7324.97-0.02-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.040.0379.1776.070.030.01
NebraskaB100.000.0354.1751.880.000.00
NJITASun0.040.0354.1755.280.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.050.0383.3378.390.030.01
PennIvy0.040.0338.8937.63-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0352.1754.170.000.00
South DakotaSum0.050.0341.6741.23-0.01-0.00
StanfordP120.000.0350.0046.540.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.050.0381.8282.630.030.02
SyracuseACC0.000.0366.6762.530.000.01
UCLAP120.040.0356.5253.270.010.00
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0331.8232.69-0.02-0.01