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Through games of Dec 19, 2014.


Mississippi

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:99.7
Current RPI:89
Expected SOS:56
Current SOS:91
Current Record:7-3
Expected Record:16-15
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-1
Current OOC Record:7-3
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:92
Expected OOC SOS:126



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-717.50.02%
23-828.10.09%
22-933.50.54%
21-1042.71.51%
20-1152.74.22%
19-1263.97.93%
18-1376.013.50%
17-1489.318.39%
16-15103.319.23%
15-16117.116.09%
14-17132.110.61%
13-18146.85.09%
12-19163.22.00%
11-20177.70.64%
10-21198.20.12%
9-22196.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Mississippi.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Charleston Southern (205.8)BSthH65-66L0%0.0
11-17Troy (280.3)SBA64-74W100%0.0
11-20Southern (308.5)SWACH69-38W100%0.0
11-23Northern Arizona (229.6)BSkyH80-74W100%0.0
11-28Creighton (114.2)BEN75-68W100%0.0
11-29Cincinnati (50.9)AmerN66-54W100%0.0
12-4TCU (66.4)B12H54-66L0%0.0
12-7Oregon (102.6)P12A73-79W100%0.0
12-13Western Kentucky (153.6)CUSAH74-81L0%0.0
12-18Coastal Carolina (138.2)BSthH71-68W100%0.0
12-22Southeast Missouri St. (250.9)OVCN0-074%7.6
12-30Dayton (74.3)A10A0-029%-6.5
1-3Austin Peay (305.4)OVCH0-092%16.7
1-6Kentucky (1.4)SECA0-01%-27.9
1-10South Carolina (38.5)SECH0-034%-4.8
1-14LSU (68.4)SECH0-055%1.5
1-17Arkansas (42.6)SECA0-018%-10.8
1-20Georgia (53.1)SECA0-020%-9.7
1-24Florida (42.1)SECH0-035%-4.5
1-28Mississippi St. (212.4)SECH0-079%9.4
1-31Missouri (177.3)SECA0-055%1.5
2-4Texas A&M (54.7)SECH0-048%-0.6
2-7Auburn (186.5)SECA0-052%0.6
2-12Florida (42.1)SECA0-013%-13.2
2-14Arkansas (42.6)SECH0-043%-2.1
2-19Mississippi St. (212.4)SECA0-052%0.7
2-21Tennessee (133.3)SECH0-070%6.2
2-25Georgia (53.1)SECH0-047%-1.0
2-28LSU (68.4)SECA0-027%-7.2
3-3Alabama (82.4)SECA0-029%-6.5
3-7Vanderbilt (90.9)SECH0-055%1.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Mississippi's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Mississippi's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Mississippi.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MississippiSEC27.9626.1161.1149.956.21-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.003.8477.7871.910.001.69
Mississippi St.SEC0.253.8150.0039.990.00-0.76
GeorgiaSEC0.423.7962.5059.000.100.68
LSUSEC0.003.7980.0064.390.001.09
FloridaSEC0.003.7860.0063.330.001.01
AuburnSEC0.362.2844.4435.49-0.04-0.66
MissouriSEC0.002.2844.4431.47-0.00-0.85
VanderbiltSEC0.002.2875.0060.820.000.49
TennesseeSEC0.002.2855.5646.170.00-0.17
Texas A&MSEC0.002.2877.7866.370.000.75
KentuckySEC0.002.25100.0094.980.002.03
South CarolinaSEC0.002.2566.6766.130.000.73
AlabamaSEC0.002.2066.6754.080.000.18
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.001.7544.4447.61-0.00-0.08
Austin PeayOVC0.691.7322.2231.39-0.39-0.64
Coastal CarolinaBSth5.001.7066.6773.231.670.79
TroySB5.001.7040.0041.02-1.00-0.30
DaytonA100.001.6977.7869.930.000.67
Charleston SouthernBSth5.001.6733.3347.88-1.67-0.07
TCUB125.001.67100.0065.825.000.53
Western KentuckyCUSA5.001.6450.0047.900.00-0.07
Northern ArizonaBSky5.311.6440.0049.21-1.06-0.03
SouthernSWAC5.231.640.0035.26-5.23-0.48
CincinnatiAmer5.001.6187.5071.283.750.69
CreightonBE5.001.6181.8253.493.180.11
OregonP125.001.6175.0059.852.500.32
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.800.2033.3339.29-0.27-0.04
Iowa St.B120.310.1988.8963.400.240.05
XavierBE0.230.1980.0070.970.140.08
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.1837.5050.60-0.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA1.030.1650.0047.740.00-0.01
BaylorB120.000.1690.0073.800.000.08
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.1611.1144.75-0.00-0.02
Kansas St.B120.000.1660.0037.150.00-0.04
ClemsonACC0.000.1660.0044.120.00-0.02
KansasB120.000.1688.8969.210.000.06
Central ArkansasSlnd0.980.150.0017.19-0.98-0.10
Murray St.OVC0.280.1555.5661.910.030.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.360.1433.3345.26-0.12-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.360.1420.0041.08-0.21-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.140.0015.18-0.00-0.10
UCLAP120.360.1472.7357.230.160.02
Southern MissCUSA0.420.1442.8626.94-0.06-0.06
Florida St.ACC0.360.1450.0038.230.00-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.250.1410.0018.50-0.20-0.09
Oregon St.P120.000.1377.7855.570.000.01
Saint LouisA100.000.1360.0033.900.00-0.04
TulaneAmer0.310.1388.8955.090.240.01
UABCUSA0.000.1330.0036.94-0.00-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.250.1325.0048.53-0.13-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.1350.0057.700.000.02
Texas TechB120.000.1390.0055.490.000.01
CampbellBSth0.000.1225.0044.56-0.00-0.01
High PointBSth0.000.1262.5056.220.000.02
LibertyBSth0.000.1225.0035.06-0.00-0.04
LongwoodBSth0.000.1220.0026.51-0.00-0.06
PresbyterianBSth0.000.120.008.14-0.00-0.10
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.1214.2945.11-0.00-0.01
RadfordBSth0.250.1255.5659.230.030.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.120.0023.36-0.00-0.06
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1262.5067.130.000.04
Arkansas St.SB0.000.1133.3345.98-0.00-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1144.4449.69-0.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.110.0028.67-0.00-0.05
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.1150.0052.110.000.00
LipscombASun0.000.1122.2238.12-0.00-0.03
MinnesotaB100.590.1180.0066.580.350.04
Old DominionCUSA0.000.1190.0081.790.000.07
Stony BrookAE0.560.1133.3355.14-0.190.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.1133.3363.11-0.000.03
Arizona St.P120.000.1160.0053.630.000.01
ColoradoP120.000.1166.6757.620.000.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.1177.7851.830.000.00
MercerSC0.000.1144.4444.53-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.230.1154.5559.120.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.1142.8636.96-0.00-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.000.1188.8963.880.000.03
VCUA100.280.1170.0071.450.110.05
JacksonvilleASun0.000.1110.0018.22-0.00-0.07
Seton HallBE0.000.1190.0067.320.000.04
Weber St.BSky0.000.1128.5742.44-0.00-0.02
OklahomaB120.210.1077.7867.320.120.04
GeorgetownBE0.000.1066.6759.590.000.02
SMUAmer0.000.1070.0071.300.000.04
Wake ForestACC0.000.1050.0038.520.00-0.02
West VirginiaB120.000.1090.0067.450.000.04
WinthropBSth0.000.0925.0044.57-0.00-0.01
BelmontOVC0.280.0960.0061.960.060.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0937.5034.46-0.00-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0942.8652.90-0.000.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0955.5655.500.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.280.0975.0067.160.140.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.420.090.0028.56-0.42-0.04
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0960.0063.510.000.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0925.0038.65-0.00-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.360.0840.0049.77-0.07-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0850.0068.680.000.03
Morehead St.OVC0.280.0816.6737.98-0.19-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.360.0881.8264.670.230.02
North FloridaASun0.000.0850.0057.210.000.01
IllinoisB100.280.0872.7365.120.130.02
UTSACUSA0.230.0842.8637.71-0.03-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.080.009.00-0.00-0.07
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.250.080.0039.69-0.25-0.02
ArizonaP120.000.08100.0082.300.000.05
La SalleA100.000.0850.0049.930.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.280.0850.0041.650.00-0.01
Washington St.P120.250.0840.0028.84-0.05-0.03
ButlerBE0.000.0880.0072.370.000.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0850.0045.370.00-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0840.0046.66-0.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0860.0049.590.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0860.0055.280.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0833.3334.61-0.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.710.0844.4469.77-0.080.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.080.0036.84-0.00-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0850.0073.610.000.04
TulsaAmer0.210.0860.0056.900.040.01
YaleIvy0.000.0872.7366.650.000.03
North CarolinaACC0.000.0870.0072.100.000.03
ProvidenceBE0.000.0872.7353.500.000.01
TexasB120.000.0890.0081.650.000.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.710.0620.0029.91-0.43-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0642.8638.37-0.00-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0666.6762.500.000.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0662.5071.350.000.03
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0035.39-0.00-0.02
Texas St.SB0.000.0650.0050.060.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0655.5637.870.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0654.5544.640.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0644.4450.85-0.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.230.0625.0023.09-0.11-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.310.0672.7367.410.140.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.280.0655.5640.440.03-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0618.1838.45-0.00-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0616.6744.58-0.00-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.490.050.0011.34-0.49-0.04
LouisvilleACC0.000.05100.0085.970.000.04
DuquesneA100.000.0528.5731.22-0.00-0.02
FordhamA100.000.0528.5728.06-0.00-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.0590.0090.870.000.04
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0512.5032.33-0.00-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.000.0525.0032.93-0.00-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0528.5757.14-0.000.01
PurdueB100.000.0572.7363.770.000.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0542.8642.46-0.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0514.2929.35-0.00-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.0575.0065.210.000.02
ToledoMAC0.510.0560.0058.890.100.01
USCP120.000.0560.0036.070.00-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0560.0064.800.000.02
Utah St.MWC0.000.0560.0052.190.000.00
WashingtonP120.000.05100.0071.400.000.02
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0533.3342.54-0.00-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.0522.2228.76-0.00-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.250.0520.0046.54-0.15-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.440.0562.5057.080.110.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0544.4444.86-0.00-0.01
DePaulBE0.000.0560.0034.020.00-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0537.5038.43-0.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0571.4347.640.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0566.6772.800.000.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0555.5660.240.000.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0581.8266.320.000.02
NebraskaB100.490.0566.6744.280.16-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0518.1827.79-0.00-0.02
St. John'sBE0.000.0588.8964.830.000.02
TempleAmer0.000.0563.6455.560.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.0555.5634.700.00-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0533.3340.82-0.00-0.01
VillanovaBE0.000.05100.0081.870.000.03
William & MaryCAA0.000.0557.1456.650.000.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.03100.0078.490.000.02
WoffordSC0.360.0377.7875.790.200.02
Wright St.Horz0.360.0360.0057.640.070.00
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0337.5040.37-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.030.0018.32-0.00-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.000.0354.5557.650.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0320.0045.49-0.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.000.0340.0033.52-0.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0333.3333.03-0.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0316.6726.71-0.00-0.01
SamfordSC0.000.0333.3331.23-0.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0366.6777.530.000.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.0360.0071.320.000.01
AkronMAC0.000.0360.0056.170.000.00
CornellIvy0.000.0355.5648.170.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0366.6754.760.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0024.34-0.00-0.01
WyomingMWC0.000.0377.7873.540.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0366.6742.760.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.280.0320.0027.89-0.17-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0390.9168.690.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.280.030.0014.67-0.28-0.02
DavidsonA100.000.0387.5076.810.000.01
DetroitHorz0.280.0344.4448.82-0.03-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0371.4364.140.000.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0371.4363.270.000.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0360.0075.470.000.01
ElonCAA0.000.0337.5047.90-0.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.230.0330.0029.59-0.09-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0325.0026.38-0.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0366.6766.380.000.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0345.4550.81-0.000.00
HartfordAE0.000.0350.0050.810.000.00
IdahoBSky0.000.0337.5050.55-0.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0318.1821.03-0.00-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.0330.0028.56-0.00-0.01
MichiganB100.280.0355.5642.460.03-0.00
MontanaBSky0.000.0325.0051.83-0.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0370.0058.740.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0344.4445.51-0.00-0.00
PennIvy0.000.0337.5033.00-0.00-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0362.5073.430.000.01
RichmondA100.000.0355.5657.270.000.00
RutgersB100.000.0360.0034.920.00-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0350.0040.680.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.0375.0057.490.000.00
TowsonCAA0.000.0366.6751.280.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.000.0337.5046.89-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0337.5064.18-0.000.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0322.2242.00-0.00-0.00
UtahP120.000.0377.7879.680.000.02
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0380.0070.970.000.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0387.5085.540.000.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0345.4543.81-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.250.0333.3332.70-0.08-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0377.7870.500.000.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0362.5064.770.000.01
FurmanSC0.250.0322.2231.52-0.14-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0336.3644.80-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.280.0370.0073.030.110.01
South DakotaSum0.210.0327.2738.75-0.09-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.280.0350.0062.120.000.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.210.0333.3341.24-0.07-0.00
WagnerNEC0.000.0314.2933.57-0.00-0.01