live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Nov 19, 2014.


Lipscomb

Conference:ASun
Expected RPI:246.8
Current RPI:335
Expected SOS:264
Current SOS:327
Current Record:0-1
Expected Record:11-15
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-7
Current OOC Record:0-1
Expected OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC RPI:241
Expected OOC SOS:134



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-893.40.07%
17-9122.10.14%
16-10129.10.86%
15-11153.72.56%
14-12176.25.49%
13-13197.110.67%
12-14220.115.25%
11-15242.418.22%
10-16264.217.71%
9-17283.614.27%
8-18301.88.50%
7-19316.84.06%
6-20328.81.56%
5-21335.90.49%
4-22342.80.12%
3-23348.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Lipscomb.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17Belmont (74.8)OVCH62-87L0%0.0
11-20Vanderbilt (136.2)SECA0-013%-13.5
11-24Belmont (74.8)OVCA0-010%-15.7
11-30Colorado (41.3)P12A0-05%-20.0
12-3Tennessee Tech (254.2)OVCA0-036%-4.2
12-6Tennessee St. (285.6)OVCH0-069%6.0
12-13Austin Peay (296.4)OVCA0-045%-1.6
12-16Texas (21.7)B12A0-03%-22.3
12-19Princeton (197.6)IvyA0-025%-8.0
12-21Austin Peay (296.4)OVCH0-068%5.6
12-29Chattanooga (208.6)SCA0-030%-6.3
1-3Missouri (79.2)SECA0-08%-16.8
1-10Northern Kentucky (267.0)ASunH0-067%5.4
1-13USC Upstate (248.7)ASunH0-060%2.9
1-17Kennesaw St. (329.7)ASunA0-062%3.7
1-22Jacksonville (333.0)ASunH0-081%10.6
1-24North Florida (222.1)ASunH0-057%2.0
1-29Florida Gulf Coast (107.1)ASunA0-015%-12.6
1-31Stetson (316.8)ASunA0-053%0.9
2-7Northern Kentucky (267.0)ASunA0-044%-1.8
2-12Stetson (316.8)ASunH0-075%8.1
2-14Florida Gulf Coast (107.1)ASunH0-033%-5.4
2-19North Florida (222.1)ASunA0-033%-5.2
2-21Jacksonville (333.0)ASunA0-061%3.4
2-25USC Upstate (248.7)ASunA0-036%-4.3
2-28Kennesaw St. (329.7)ASunH0-082%10.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Lipscomb's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Lipscomb's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Lipscomb.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
LipscombASun37.5026.550.0045.18-37.50-2.56
North FloridaASun0.004.840.0045.71-0.00-0.42
Kennesaw St.ASun0.004.780.0024.43-0.00-2.44
Northern KentuckyASun0.004.7433.3338.69-0.00-1.07
JacksonvilleASun0.004.710.0027.03-0.00-2.16
StetsonASun0.004.700.0031.99-0.00-1.69
USC UpstateASun0.004.70100.0051.950.000.18
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.004.69100.0072.040.002.07
Austin PeayOVC0.004.050.0032.34-0.00-1.43
BelmontOVC50.004.050.0069.43-50.001.58
Tennessee TechOVC0.002.380.0040.53-0.00-0.45
Tennessee St.OVC0.002.300.0029.41-0.00-0.95
ChattanoogaSC0.002.100.0055.68-0.000.24
VanderbiltSEC0.001.990.0050.06-0.000.00
MissouriSEC0.001.9666.6753.370.000.13
ColoradoP120.001.92100.0069.330.000.74
PrincetonIvy0.001.9233.3350.22-0.000.01
TexasB120.001.92100.0068.920.000.73
Morehead St.OVC0.000.420.0058.20-0.000.07
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.410.0027.00-0.00-0.19
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.350.0020.22-0.00-0.21
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.3550.0035.590.00-0.10
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.35100.0062.250.000.08
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.310.0043.69-0.00-0.04
FIUCUSA0.000.29100.0044.320.00-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.280.0038.23-0.00-0.07
Murray St.OVC0.000.2850.0071.660.000.12
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.280.0033.32-0.00-0.09
SamfordSC0.000.2833.3331.90-0.00-0.10
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.27100.0039.790.00-0.06
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.210.0024.20-0.00-0.11
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.210.0044.27-0.00-0.02
Wright St.Horz12.500.2150.0053.390.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.21100.0054.510.000.02
IllinoisB100.000.17100.0062.310.000.04
ButlerBE0.000.17100.0058.150.000.03
FloridaSEC0.000.1750.0070.050.000.07
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1750.0055.500.000.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.170.0047.67-0.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.150.0055.53-0.000.02
FurmanSC0.000.1550.0024.640.00-0.07
OhioMAC0.000.1550.0055.890.000.02
BrownIvy0.000.1433.3340.52-0.00-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.000.1450.0057.380.000.02
IdahoBSky0.000.14100.0050.590.000.00
NorthwesternB100.000.14100.0046.590.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.14100.0046.050.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.140.0037.20-0.00-0.04
HamptonMEAC0.000.140.0058.77-0.000.02
IPFWSum0.000.14100.0064.670.000.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1450.0060.550.000.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.1450.0046.600.00-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.140.0037.22-0.00-0.04
UMKCWAC0.000.1450.0059.230.000.03
CaliforniaP120.000.14100.0059.680.000.03
MississippiSEC0.000.1450.0052.110.000.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.1450.0050.780.000.00
MercerSC0.000.1450.0051.620.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.140.0048.73-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.000.14100.0065.510.000.04
AuburnSEC0.000.1350.0037.900.00-0.03
KentuckySEC0.000.13100.0087.640.000.10
XavierBE0.000.11100.0069.810.000.04
LibertyBSth0.000.1150.0044.410.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.110.0047.61-0.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.11100.0083.870.000.07
WyomingMWC0.000.11100.0054.220.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.10100.0049.720.00-0.00
PennIvy0.000.100.0025.03-0.00-0.05
PurdueB100.000.10100.0052.910.000.01
YaleIvy0.000.100.0054.42-0.000.01
IowaB100.000.10100.0068.180.000.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.100.0048.52-0.00-0.00
USCP120.000.1050.0037.740.00-0.03
ArizonaP120.000.10100.0072.920.000.05
ElonCAA0.000.1050.0037.260.00-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.000.100.0046.05-0.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.100.0049.79-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.10100.0075.270.000.05
Texas A&MSEC0.000.10100.0057.940.000.02
TCUB120.000.10100.0054.080.000.01
BaylorB120.000.10100.0070.300.000.04
OklahomaB120.000.1050.0060.110.000.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.10100.0052.320.000.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0850.0058.340.000.01
MaristMAAC0.000.080.0042.30-0.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.08100.0062.520.000.02
PittsburghACC0.000.08100.0058.110.000.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.080.0051.45-0.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.070.0039.86-0.00-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0750.0060.230.000.01
CornellIvy0.000.0766.6745.290.00-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.070.0034.89-0.00-0.02
DavidsonA100.000.07100.0049.680.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.07100.0059.850.000.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.070.0045.30-0.00-0.01
HarvardIvy0.000.070.0066.63-0.000.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0750.0051.340.000.00
MarylandB100.000.07100.0063.170.000.02
MemphisAmer0.000.070.0065.23-0.000.02
NebraskaB100.000.07100.0053.420.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0733.3364.23-0.000.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.07100.0066.000.000.02
ToledoMAC0.000.0750.0063.090.000.02
TroySB0.000.070.0041.54-0.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.070.0035.21-0.00-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.070.0044.59-0.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.070.0015.45-0.00-0.05
Arizona St.P120.000.07100.0055.300.000.01
DenverSum0.000.07100.0065.200.000.02
EvansvilleMVC0.000.07100.0063.190.000.02
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0750.0042.940.00-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0750.0060.150.000.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0750.0061.660.000.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0733.3335.79-0.00-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.07100.0059.950.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.07100.0060.100.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.07100.0042.400.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.070.0040.28-0.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.07100.0066.300.000.02
The CitadelSC0.000.070.0028.32-0.00-0.03
UCLAP120.000.07100.0063.500.000.02
UMBCAE0.000.070.0035.56-0.00-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.070.0037.28-0.00-0.02
UtahP120.000.0750.0063.990.000.02
VCUA100.000.07100.0076.610.000.04
VMISC0.000.0750.0044.590.00-0.01
WashingtonP120.000.07100.0057.750.000.01
WoffordSC0.000.0750.0066.170.000.02
Washington St.P120.000.070.0033.08-0.00-0.02
StanfordP120.000.07100.0061.600.000.02
LSUSEC0.000.07100.0064.450.000.02
Iowa St.B120.000.06100.0063.940.000.02
KansasB120.000.0650.0062.370.000.02
Kansas St.B120.000.06100.0062.480.000.02
Texas TechB120.000.0650.0046.310.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0450.0035.160.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0450.0029.550.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.040.0041.37-0.00-0.01
LafayettePat0.000.0466.6763.540.000.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0450.0050.670.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.0450.0063.480.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.04100.0072.000.000.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.0466.6746.880.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.000.0350.0044.100.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.000.03100.0061.310.000.01
DePaulBE0.000.03100.0040.670.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.000.030.0041.49-0.00-0.01
OregonP120.000.03100.0064.960.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.03100.0044.710.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0333.3337.80-0.00-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.03100.0059.900.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.030.0031.14-0.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.030.0048.02-0.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0068.190.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0350.0056.910.000.00
RutgersB100.000.0350.0034.720.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.03100.0068.650.000.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0350.0052.410.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0039.48-0.00-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.03100.0073.010.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.030.0046.87-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0350.0029.980.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.030.0048.38-0.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.000.03100.0056.290.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0350.0052.630.000.00