Lipscomb

Conference:	ASun
Expected RPI:	237.0
Current RPI:	237
Expected SOS:	206
Current SOS:	206
Current Record:	11-18
Expected Record:	11-18
Current Conf Record:	7-12
Expected Conf Record:	7-12
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-9
Current OOC Record:	4-6
Expected OOC Record:	4-6
Expected OOC RPI:	102
Expected OOC SOS:	23

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
11-18	237.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Lipscomb.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Belmont (21.0)	OVC	H	60-89	L	0%
11-14	Gardner Webb (194.0)	BSth	A	62-66	W	100%
11-23	Mississippi (47.0)	SEC	A	91-45	L	0%
11-26	Murray St. (110.0)	OVC	H	79-88	L	0%
11-30	Tennessee Tech (242.0)	OVC	H	80-64	W	100%
12-4	Belmont (21.0)	OVC	A	100-66	L	0%
12-8	Tennessee Martin (312.0)	OVC	H	86-62	W	100%
12-15	Kentucky (56.0)	SEC	A	88-50	L	0%
12-18	Austin Peay (319.0)	OVC	A	84-87	W	100%
12-20	Memphis (12.0)	CUSA	A	62-56	L	0%
12-31	North Florida (230.0)	ASun	A	84-70	L	0%
1-2	Jacksonville (281.0)	ASun	A	85-71	L	0%
1-5	East Tennessee St. (275.0)	ASun	H	60-56	W	100%
1-7	South Carolina Upstate (225.0)	ASun	H	61-98	L	0%
1-11	Northern Kentucky (264.0)	ASun	A	67-53	L	0%
1-17	Florida Gulf Coast (94.0)	ASun	A	78-87	W	100%
1-19	Stetson (220.0)	ASun	A	85-69	L	0%
1-24	Kennesaw St. (341.0)	ASun	H	79-72	W	100%
1-26	Mercer (137.0)	ASun	H	65-71	L	0%
1-31	South Carolina Upstate (225.0)	ASun	A	83-71	L	0%
2-2	East Tennessee St. (275.0)	ASun	A	90-88	L	0%
2-8	Northern Kentucky (264.0)	ASun	H	76-58	W	100%
2-14	Stetson (220.0)	ASun	H	66-76	L	0%
2-16	Florida Gulf Coast (94.0)	ASun	H	84-74	W	100%
2-21	Mercer (137.0)	ASun	A	83-58	L	0%
2-23	Kennesaw St. (341.0)	ASun	A	55-70	W	100%
2-28	Jacksonville (281.0)	ASun	H	77-73	W	100%
3-2	North Florida (230.0)	ASun	H	78-85	L	0%
3-6	Mercer (137.0)	ASun	A	82-48	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Lipscomb's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Lipscomb's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Lipscomb.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Lipscomb	ASun	26.50	26.50	38.58	38.58	-6.05	-6.05
Mercer	ASun	6.20	6.20	62.07	62.07	1.50	1.50
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	4.61	4.61	73.33	73.33	2.15	2.15
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	4.55	4.55	41.38	41.38	-0.78	-0.78
East Tennessee St.	ASun	4.53	4.53	27.59	27.59	-2.03	-2.03
Stetson	ASun	4.52	4.52	42.86	42.86	-0.65	-0.65
North Florida	ASun	4.49	4.49	34.48	34.48	-1.39	-1.39
Jacksonville	ASun	4.46	4.46	39.29	39.29	-0.96	-0.96
Kennesaw St.	ASun	4.44	4.44	10.71	10.71	-3.49	-3.49
Northern Kentucky	ASun	4.40	4.40	40.00	40.00	-0.88	-0.88
Belmont	OVC	3.63	3.63	78.57	78.57	2.08	2.08
Tennessee Martin	OVC	2.02	2.02	25.93	25.93	-0.97	-0.97
Tennessee Tech	OVC	2.01	2.01	38.46	38.46	-0.46	-0.46
Murray St.	OVC	1.99	1.99	64.29	64.29	0.57	0.57
Austin Peay	OVC	1.99	1.99	21.43	21.43	-1.14	-1.14
Memphis	CUSA	1.84	1.84	87.88	87.88	1.39	1.39
Mississippi	SEC	1.81	1.81	75.76	75.76	0.93	0.93
Gardner Webb	BSth	1.79	1.79	62.07	62.07	0.43	0.43
Kentucky	SEC	1.75	1.75	64.52	64.52	0.51	0.51
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.38	0.38	53.33	53.33	0.03	0.03
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.36	0.36	70.97	70.97	0.15	0.15
Morehead St.	OVC	0.33	0.33	41.94	41.94	-0.05	-0.05
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.27	0.27	35.48	35.48	-0.08	-0.08
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.27	0.27	28.00	28.00	-0.12	-0.12
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.27	0.27	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.27	0.27	57.69	57.69	0.04	0.04
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.25	0.25	76.47	76.47	0.13	0.13
Georgia	SEC	0.25	0.25	46.88	46.88	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.19	0.19	62.50	62.50	0.05	0.05
Miami FL	ACC	0.17	0.17	81.82	81.82	0.11	0.11
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.17	0.17	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Samford	SC	0.17	0.17	32.26	32.26	-0.06	-0.06
Auburn	SEC	0.17	0.17	28.12	28.12	-0.07	-0.07
Central Florida	CUSA	0.17	0.17	62.07	62.07	0.04	0.04
San Francisco	WCC	0.14	0.14	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.14	0.14	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
Furman	SC	0.14	0.14	17.24	17.24	-0.09	-0.09
Florida St.	ACC	0.14	0.14	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.13	0.13	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.13	0.13	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.12	0.12	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	14.29	14.29	-0.08	-0.08
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.11	0.11	42.31	42.31	-0.02	-0.02
Tulsa	CUSA	0.11	0.11	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.11	0.11	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.11	0.11	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.11	0.11	20.69	20.69	-0.07	-0.07
Georgia Southern	SC	0.11	0.11	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
NC Asheville	BSth	0.11	0.11	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.11	0.11	75.00	75.00	0.06	0.06
Florida International	SB	0.11	0.11	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.11	0.11	78.79	78.79	0.06	0.06
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.11	0.11	31.25	31.25	-0.04	-0.04
South Carolina	SEC	0.11	0.11	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Florida	SEC	0.10	0.10	78.79	78.79	0.06	0.06
Texas A&M	SEC	0.10	0.10	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.10	0.10	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Arkansas St.	SB	0.09	0.09	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.09	0.09	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Liberty	BSth	0.09	0.09	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.09	0.09	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
St. Louis	A10	0.09	0.09	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Radford	BSth	0.09	0.09	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Wofford	SC	0.09	0.09	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Utah Valley	GWC	0.09	0.09	35.71	35.71	-0.02	-0.02
Notre Dame	BE	0.08	0.08	73.53	73.53	0.04	0.04
North Carolina	ACC	0.08	0.08	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
St. John's	BE	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.08	0.08	84.85	84.85	0.06	0.06
Ohio	MAC	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Baylor	B12	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Portland	WCC	0.08	0.08	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Hawaii	BW	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.08	0.08	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Denver	WAC	0.08	0.08	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
Duke	ACC	0.08	0.08	84.38	84.38	0.06	0.06
George Mason	CAA	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
New Mexico	MWC	0.08	0.08	85.29	85.29	0.06	0.06
Wake Forest	ACC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.08	0.08	53.85	53.85	0.01	0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.08	0.08	31.25	31.25	-0.03	-0.03
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.08	0.08	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Navy	Pat	0.06	0.06	23.33	23.33	-0.03	-0.03
Ohio St.	B10	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
San Diego	WCC	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Tech	B12	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Evansville	MVC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.06	0.06	19.35	19.35	-0.04	-0.04
Western Kentucky	SB	0.06	0.06	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.06	0.06	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
High Point	BSth	0.06	0.06	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Boston University	AE	0.06	0.06	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Charlotte	A10	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Indiana	B10	0.06	0.06	81.82	81.82	0.04	0.04
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas	B12	0.06	0.06	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Missouri St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.06	0.06	17.24	17.24	-0.04	-0.04
Richmond	A10	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
South Florida	BE	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Stanford	P12	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Towson	CAA	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona	P12	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.06	0.06	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.06	0.06	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.06	0.06	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.06	0.06	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	28.12	28.12	-0.02	-0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Maine	AE	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.02	-0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Fairfield	MAAC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Old Dominion	CAA	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Valparaiso	Horz	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Western Carolina	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.03	0.03	21.43	21.43	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Lafayette	Pat	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Long Island	NEC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Houston	CUSA	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Rutgers	BE	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Xavier	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00