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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Lipscomb

Conference:ASun
Expected RPI:209.0
Current RPI:209
Expected SOS:259
Current SOS:259
Current Record:14-15
Expected Record:14-15
Current Conf Record:10-9
Expected Conf Record:10-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-4
Current OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC RPI:171
Expected OOC SOS:211



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-15209.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Lipscomb.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Belmont (57.0)OVCH83-87L0%0.0
11-15Vanderbilt (120.0)SECA80-69L0%0.0
11-18Tennessee St. (300.0)OVCA70-75W100%0.0
11-20Belmont (57.0)OVCA94-64L0%0.0
11-25Tennessee Martin (332.0)OVCA84-95W100%0.0
11-30Georgetown (69.0)BEA70-49L0%0.0
12-5Tennessee Tech (215.0)OVCH87-79W100%0.0
12-7Murray St. (142.0)OVCA73-69L0%0.0
12-14Georgia (74.0)SECA84-75L0%0.0
12-19Austin Peay (305.0)OVCA83-88W100%0.0
12-30Stetson (333.0)ASunA65-63L0%0.0
1-1Florida Gulf Coast (146.0)ASunA75-62L0%0.0
1-4North Florida (189.0)ASunH73-78L0%0.0
1-6Jacksonville (282.0)ASunH85-88L0%0.0
1-9East Tennessee St. (206.0)ASunA80-82W100%0.0
1-11USC Upstate (163.0)ASunA84-70L0%0.0
1-16Kennesaw St. (324.0)ASunH88-83W100%0.0
1-18Mercer (81.0)ASunH66-87L0%0.0
1-24Northern Kentucky (310.0)ASunA74-75W100%0.0
1-30Jacksonville (282.0)ASunA76-88W100%0.0
2-1North Florida (189.0)ASunA58-60W100%0.0
2-6USC Upstate (163.0)ASunH77-75W100%0.0
2-8East Tennessee St. (206.0)ASunH88-96L0%0.0
2-14Mercer (81.0)ASunA79-48L0%0.0
2-16Kennesaw St. (324.0)ASunA73-76W100%0.0
2-21Northern Kentucky (310.0)ASunH70-66W100%0.0
2-27Florida Gulf Coast (146.0)ASunH92-71W100%0.0
3-1Stetson (333.0)ASunH83-76W100%0.0
3-4East Tennessee St. (206.0)ASunA89-88L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Lipscomb's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Lipscomb's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Lipscomb.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
LipscombASun26.5026.5053.2453.241.721.72
East Tennessee St.ASun6.236.2351.7251.720.210.21
Florida Gulf CoastASun4.614.6163.3363.331.231.23
MercerASun4.584.5872.4172.412.052.05
USC UpstateASun4.554.5555.1755.170.470.47
StetsonASun4.474.4720.6920.69-2.62-2.62
North FloridaASun4.464.4646.4346.43-0.32-0.32
JacksonvilleASun4.464.4634.6234.62-1.37-1.37
Northern KentuckyASun4.444.4432.1432.14-1.59-1.59
Kennesaw St.ASun4.404.4014.8114.81-3.10-3.10
BelmontOVC3.663.6670.0070.001.461.46
Austin PeayOVC2.152.1537.0437.04-0.56-0.56
Tennessee TechOVC2.062.0650.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC2.042.0414.2914.29-1.45-1.45
Tennessee MartinOVC2.022.0221.4321.43-1.15-1.15
Murray St.OVC1.961.9657.6957.690.300.30
VanderbiltSEC1.781.7846.6746.67-0.12-0.12
GeorgiaSEC1.751.7558.0658.060.280.28
GeorgetownBE1.721.7253.3353.330.110.11
Morehead St.OVC0.540.5458.0658.060.090.09
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.460.4670.9770.970.190.19
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.350.3553.3353.330.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.320.3231.0331.03-0.12-0.12
Jacksonville St.OVC0.320.3227.5927.59-0.14-0.14
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.300.3032.1432.14-0.11-0.11
SamfordSC0.260.2633.3333.33-0.09-0.09
Mississippi St.SEC0.220.2242.4242.42-0.03-0.03
FIUCUSA0.200.2046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.200.2062.5062.500.050.05
Georgia TechACC0.200.2048.4848.48-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.190.1970.5970.590.080.08
FloridaSEC0.170.1794.1294.120.150.15
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.170.1770.9770.970.070.07
Florida A&MMEAC0.170.1740.0040.00-0.03-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
MississippiSEC0.170.1757.5857.580.030.03
ChattanoogaSC0.140.1451.7251.720.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.140.1441.1841.18-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.140.1437.5037.50-0.03-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.140.1454.8454.840.010.01
WinthropBSth0.140.1456.6756.670.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.120.1240.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.120.1226.6726.67-0.05-0.05
UCFAmer0.120.1237.9337.93-0.03-0.03
IndianaB100.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
AuburnSEC0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.120.1281.8281.820.070.07
Kent St.MAC0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.110.1116.6716.67-0.08-0.08
Western KentuckySB0.110.1161.2961.290.030.03
AlabamaSEC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.03-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
North CarolinaACC0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
Seton HallBE0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
DenverSum0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
LSUSEC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
MissouriSEC0.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
MarshallCUSA0.110.1129.0329.03-0.05-0.05
Indiana St.MVC0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
Florida St.ACC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.090.0941.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
IPFWSum0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
Michigan St.B100.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
ButlerBE0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.080.0836.3636.36-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
TexasB120.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
DavidsonSC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
VCUA100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
NebraskaB100.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.080.0893.1093.100.070.07
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
Georgia SouthernSC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
NavyPat0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Ohio St.B100.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
PurdueB100.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
Texas St.SB0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
TulaneCUSA0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
ColoradoP120.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
CreightonBE0.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
MarquetteBE0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0621.2121.21-0.03-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
OklahomaB120.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
St. John'sBE0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
VillanovaBE0.060.0687.5087.500.040.04
Virginia TechACC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
WagnerNEC0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
XavierBE0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
YaleIvy0.060.0651.8551.850.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
FurmanSC0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
HartfordAE0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
HofstraCAA0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
IonaMAAC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
RadfordBSth0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
RichmondA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
DaytonA100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
DrexelCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
HawaiiBW0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
WyomingMWC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
ColgatePat0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
ElonSC0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Green BayHorz0.030.0377.7877.780.020.02
High PointBSth0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
KansasB120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Appalachian St.SC0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
TempleAmer0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00