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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Lipscomb

Conference:ASun
Expected RPI:269.0
Current RPI:269
Expected SOS:216
Current SOS:216
Current Record:10-21
Expected Record:10-21
Current Conf Record:8-8
Expected Conf Record:8-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-7
Current OOC Record:2-13
Expected OOC Record:2-13
Expected OOC RPI:257
Expected OOC SOS:60



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-21269.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Lipscomb.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Santa Clara (251.0)WCCA63-65W100%0.0
11-14Milwaukee (173.0)HorzN65-71L0%0.0
11-15Denver (188.0)SumN82-69L0%0.0
11-20Miami OH (195.0)MACA70-68L0%0.0
11-21Northeastern (109.0)CAAN67-79L0%0.0
11-22Florida Atlantic (300.0)CUSAN65-79W100%0.0
11-27South Carolina (65.0)SECA92-76L0%0.0
12-1Belmont (98.0)OVCA105-89L0%0.0
12-5Tennessee Tech (134.0)OVCH78-81L0%0.0
12-7Belmont (98.0)OVCH84-93L0%0.0
12-12Princeton (39.0)IvyH64-78L0%0.0
12-17Tennessee St. (152.0)OVCA89-86L0%0.0
12-20Austin Peay (184.0)OVCH84-92L0%0.0
12-29Chattanooga (50.0)SCH56-80L0%0.0
1-2Akron (34.0)MACA80-73L0%0.0
1-9Kennesaw St. (263.0)ASunA102-86L0%0.0
1-14North Florida (161.0)ASunA95-83L0%0.0
1-16Jacksonville (289.0)ASunA76-73L0%0.0
1-21Stetson (303.0)ASunH92-87W100%0.0
1-24Florida Gulf Coast (209.0)ASunH91-75W100%0.0
1-27NJIT (207.0)ASunA72-81W100%0.0
1-30USC Upstate (324.0)ASunH91-92L0%0.0
2-1NJIT (207.0)ASunH78-90L0%0.0
2-6USC Upstate (324.0)ASunA65-78W100%0.0
2-11Jacksonville (289.0)ASunH93-92W100%0.0
2-13North Florida (161.0)ASunH94-87W100%0.0
2-18Florida Gulf Coast (209.0)ASunA82-67L0%0.0
2-20Stetson (303.0)ASunA74-77W100%0.0
2-25Kennesaw St. (263.0)ASunH57-73L0%0.0
3-1Jacksonville (289.0)ASunA89-92W100%0.0
3-3Stetson (303.0)ASunH75-96L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Lipscomb's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Lipscomb's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Lipscomb.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
LipscombASun26.5026.5033.1233.12-8.95-8.95
StetsonASun5.735.7325.9325.93-2.76-2.76
JacksonvilleASun5.555.5544.0044.00-0.67-0.67
Florida Gulf CoastASun4.194.1955.5655.560.470.47
Kennesaw St.ASun4.164.1625.9325.93-2.01-2.01
North FloridaASun4.144.1464.2964.291.181.18
NJITASun4.094.0953.5753.570.290.29
USC UpstateASun4.054.0523.0823.08-2.18-2.18
BelmontOVC3.453.4560.7160.710.740.74
Tennessee St.OVC2.042.0462.9662.960.530.53
Austin PeayOVC1.891.8946.8846.88-0.12-0.12
Tennessee TechOVC1.881.8859.2659.260.350.35
Miami OHMAC1.741.7435.4835.48-0.51-0.51
ChattanoogaSC1.701.7083.8783.871.151.15
DenverSum1.671.6750.0050.000.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz1.671.6756.6756.670.220.22
Santa ClaraWCC1.661.6634.4834.48-0.52-0.52
NortheasternCAA1.661.6651.6151.610.050.05
AkronMAC1.661.6675.0075.000.830.83
Florida AtlanticCUSA1.661.6623.3323.33-0.89-0.89
PrincetonIvy1.611.6176.9276.920.870.87
South CarolinaSEC1.611.6173.3373.330.750.75
Jacksonville St.OVC0.360.3620.6920.69-0.21-0.21
IPFWSum0.290.2970.9770.970.120.12
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.270.2746.6746.67-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.270.2740.0040.00-0.05-0.05
Morehead St.OVC0.250.2558.6258.620.040.04
FIUCUSA0.240.2436.6736.67-0.06-0.06
Tennessee MartinOVC0.210.2154.8454.840.020.02
NavyPat0.200.2056.2556.250.030.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.200.2022.2222.22-0.11-0.11
The CitadelSC0.190.1924.1424.14-0.10-0.10
Murray St.OVC0.190.1951.7251.720.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.190.1921.4321.43-0.11-0.11
OhioMAC0.180.1864.5264.520.050.05
Bowling GreenMAC0.180.1843.7543.75-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.170.1757.5857.580.030.03
South FloridaAmer0.170.1724.2424.24-0.09-0.09
East CarolinaAmer0.160.1637.5037.50-0.04-0.04
Western MichiganMAC0.160.1636.6736.67-0.04-0.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.160.1639.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.160.1611.1111.11-0.12-0.12
ValparaisoHorz0.160.1680.0080.000.100.10
SamfordSC0.160.1638.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Kent St.MAC0.150.1558.0658.060.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.150.1557.5857.580.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.140.1476.4776.470.070.07
Georgia SouthernSB0.140.1441.3841.38-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.140.1437.9337.93-0.03-0.03
West VirginiaB120.140.1476.4776.470.070.07
South Carolina St.MEAC0.140.1454.8454.840.010.01
LSUSEC0.140.1457.5857.580.020.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.130.1370.9770.970.060.06
BYUWCC0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
MarquetteBE0.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.130.1377.4277.420.070.07
South DakotaSum0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
IUPUISum0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
UCFAmer0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.130.1323.3323.33-0.07-0.07
Eastern MichiganMAC0.130.1348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.110.1165.5265.520.040.04
YaleIvy0.110.1177.7877.780.060.06
Florida St.ACC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
UABCUSA0.110.1180.6580.650.070.07
Arizona St.P120.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.110.1174.1974.190.050.05
Stony BrookAE0.110.1180.0080.000.070.07
AlabamaSEC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.110.1130.0030.00-0.04-0.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.110.1144.1244.12-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
DaytonA100.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
GeorgiaSEC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Green BayHorz0.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
HofstraCAA0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
Western CarolinaSC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
Appalachian St.SB0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
MaristMAAC0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
HarvardIvy0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
ClemsonACC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.080.0870.0070.000.030.03
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
RichmondA100.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
IndianaB100.080.0878.1278.120.050.05
KentuckySEC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
San DiegoWCC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
South AlabamaSB0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
IllinoisB100.080.0844.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
DetroitHorz0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
DrexelCAA0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
TowsonCAA0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0876.6776.670.040.04
ToledoMAC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
WoffordSC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0758.6258.620.010.01
BrownIvy0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
CornellIvy0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
PennIvy0.060.0637.0437.04-0.02-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
WinthropBSth0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
MassachusettsA100.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
Air ForceMWC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
AlbanyAE0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
GonzagaWCC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
HartfordAE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
PortlandWCC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Saint LouisA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0583.8783.870.040.04
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.050.0535.7135.71-0.02-0.02
UMBCAE0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0518.5218.52-0.03-0.03
VCUA100.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
UC RiversideBW0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0562.8662.860.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0529.1729.17-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
MarshallCUSA0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
DelawareCAA0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
FurmanSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
VMISC0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
William & MaryCAA0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
BucknellPat0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0339.3939.39-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
IowaB100.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0322.8622.86-0.02-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0324.2424.24-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
NevadaMWC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
MinnesotaB100.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
WisconsinB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
WyomingMWC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
VermontAE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
XavierBE0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
TroySB0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
VillanovaBE0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02