live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Lipscomb

Conference:ASun
Expected RPI:189.0
Current RPI:189
Expected SOS:265
Current SOS:265
Current Record:17-13
Expected Record:17-13
Current Conf Record:12-4
Expected Conf Record:12-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:15-5
Current OOC Record:5-9
Expected OOC Record:5-9
Expected OOC RPI:216
Expected OOC SOS:208



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-13189.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Lipscomb.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Morehead St. (200.0)OVCA89-75L0%0.0
11-18Saint Peter's (130.0)MAACN90-77L0%0.0
11-19Fairleigh Dickinson (273.0)NECN72-90L0%0.0
11-20Fordham (215.0)A10A85-69L0%0.0
11-26Cincinnati (12.0)AmerA91-68L0%0.0
11-29Belmont (61.0)OVCA64-62L0%0.0
12-1Tennessee Tech (277.0)OVCH104-85W100%0.0
12-3Tennessee St. (162.0)OVCH71-72L0%0.0
12-6Belmont (61.0)OVCH76-78L0%0.0
12-10Morehead St. (200.0)OVCH98-84W100%0.0
12-15Tennessee (82.0)SECA92-77L0%0.0
12-17Tennessee Tech (277.0)OVCA79-81W100%0.0
12-20Austin Peay (261.0)OVCA85-99W100%0.0
12-29Missouri (257.0)SECA76-81W100%0.0
1-7Kennesaw St. (259.0)ASunH82-79W100%0.0
1-12Stetson (328.0)ASunH94-68W100%0.0
1-14Florida Gulf Coast (85.0)ASunH80-84L0%0.0
1-19Jacksonville (291.0)ASunA95-112W100%0.0
1-21North Florida (217.0)ASunA90-84L0%0.0
1-25USC Upstate (229.0)ASunH84-77W100%0.0
1-28NJIT (290.0)ASunA62-66W100%0.0
1-30USC Upstate (229.0)ASunA80-92W100%0.0
2-4NJIT (290.0)ASunH87-63W100%0.0
2-9Florida Gulf Coast (85.0)ASunA60-65W100%0.0
2-11Stetson (328.0)ASunA85-97W100%0.0
2-16North Florida (217.0)ASunH82-93L0%0.0
2-18Jacksonville (291.0)ASunH81-69W100%0.0
2-23Kennesaw St. (259.0)ASunA74-85W100%0.0
2-27NJIT (290.0)ASunH97-66W100%0.0
3-2North Florida (217.0)ASunH85-91L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Lipscomb's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Lipscomb's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Lipscomb.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
LipscombASun26.6626.6658.0058.004.264.26
North FloridaASun5.865.8629.6329.63-2.39-2.39
NJITASun5.745.7434.6234.62-1.77-1.77
Florida Gulf CoastASun4.334.3378.5778.572.482.48
Kennesaw St.ASun4.284.2842.8642.86-0.61-0.61
JacksonvilleASun4.214.2150.0050.000.000.00
StetsonASun4.194.1929.6329.63-1.71-1.71
USC UpstateASun4.184.1850.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC3.693.6935.7135.71-1.05-1.05
Morehead St.OVC3.663.6642.3142.31-0.56-0.56
BelmontOVC3.653.6576.0076.001.901.90
Tennessee St.OVC2.112.1151.8551.850.080.08
Austin PeayOVC1.871.8733.3333.33-0.62-0.62
TennesseeSEC1.751.7546.6746.67-0.12-0.12
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC1.741.7432.1432.14-0.62-0.62
Saint Peter'sMAAC1.721.7258.0658.060.280.28
FordhamA101.721.7236.6736.67-0.46-0.46
CincinnatiAmer1.701.7084.8584.851.181.18
MissouriSEC1.691.6925.8125.81-0.82-0.82
Jacksonville St.OVC0.560.5656.2556.250.070.07
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.500.5034.4834.48-0.16-0.16
Murray St.OVC0.380.3845.1645.16-0.04-0.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.320.3217.8617.86-0.21-0.21
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.300.3041.9441.94-0.05-0.05
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.290.2944.4444.44-0.03-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.270.2761.2961.290.060.06
FIUCUSA0.260.2617.2417.24-0.17-0.17
FloridaSEC0.250.2575.0075.000.130.13
AuburnSEC0.250.2556.2556.250.030.03
AlabamaSEC0.200.2057.5857.580.030.03
IonaMAAC0.190.1964.7164.710.060.06
ArkansasSEC0.190.1973.5373.530.090.09
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.170.1726.6726.67-0.08-0.08
Florida A&MMEAC0.170.1717.8617.86-0.11-0.11
VanderbiltSEC0.170.1755.8855.880.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.160.1646.8846.88-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.150.1529.0329.03-0.06-0.06
PurdueB100.150.1578.1278.120.080.08
St. Francis PANEC0.140.1448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.140.146.906.90-0.12-0.12
LSUSEC0.140.1432.2632.26-0.05-0.05
TempleAmer0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
RiderMAAC0.130.1354.5554.550.010.01
MississippiSEC0.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.120.1229.4129.41-0.05-0.05
Western KentuckyCUSA0.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
CampbellBSth0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.120.1257.1457.140.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.120.1230.0030.00-0.05-0.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.120.123.333.33-0.11-0.11
East Tennessee St.SC0.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
Rhode IslandA100.110.1172.7372.730.050.05
IowaB100.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
LafayettePat0.110.1127.5927.59-0.05-0.05
MaristMAAC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Miami OHMAC0.110.1130.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
Michigan St.B100.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
BrownIvy0.110.1139.2939.29-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.110.1154.5554.550.010.01
SienaMAAC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
UCFAmer0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
South FloridaAmer0.100.1023.3323.33-0.06-0.06
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.090.0987.8887.880.070.07
EvansvilleMVC0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
PresbyterianBSth0.090.0910.7110.71-0.07-0.07
Georgia St.SB0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
Idaho St.BSky0.090.0913.3313.33-0.06-0.06
Kent St.MAC0.090.0961.7661.760.020.02
MinnesotaB100.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
Stony BrookAE0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Utah St.MWC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
Central ConnecticutNEC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
Sacred HeartNEC0.080.0840.6240.62-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.080.0810.0010.00-0.07-0.07
Ball St.MAC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0867.8667.860.030.03
Miami FLACC0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
North DakotaBSky0.080.0867.8667.860.030.03
SyracuseACC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Wright St.Horz0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
MassachusettsA100.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
East CarolinaAmer0.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
KentuckySEC0.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
ManhattanMAAC0.080.0831.2531.25-0.03-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
TulaneAmer0.080.0819.3519.35-0.05-0.05
SMUAmer0.070.0788.2488.240.060.06
TulsaAmer0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
DenverSum0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0670.0070.000.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
BryantNEC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.060.0655.8855.880.010.01
RadfordBSth0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
RutgersB100.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.060.0677.4277.420.030.03
BinghamtonAE0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.060.0663.3363.330.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
MercerSC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.060.0668.5768.570.020.02
OhioMAC0.060.0663.3363.330.010.01
PacificWCC0.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
DuquesneA100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
RichmondA100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
DelawareCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.030.0377.1477.140.020.02
IndianaB100.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UC DavisBW0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
WoffordSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Seton HallBE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
TowsonCAA0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.030.0396.9796.970.030.03
HarvardIvy0.030.0361.5461.540.010.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
OregonP120.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
Saint LouisA100.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
WisconsinB100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
ArizonaP120.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
ElonCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
IllinoisB100.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
MarylandB100.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
AlbanyAE0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Iowa St.B120.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
MemphisAmer0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Penn St.B100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0267.6567.650.010.01