Lipscomb

Conference:	ASun
Expected RPI:	225.0
Current RPI:	225
Expected SOS:	204
Current SOS:	204
Current Record:	12-18
Expected Record:	12-18
Current Conf Record:	8-11
Expected Conf Record:	8-11
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-3
Current OOC Record:	4-7
Expected OOC Record:	4-7
Expected OOC RPI:	204
Expected OOC SOS:	149

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
12-18	225.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Lipscomb.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-13	Gardner Webb (293.0)	BSth	H	71-74	L	0%
11-17	Illinois (92.0)	B10	A	79-64	L	0%
11-19	Illinois St. (100.0)	MVC	A	78-70	L	0%
11-22	SIU Edwardsville (300.0)	OVC	N	90-87	W	100%
11-23	Sacred Heart (237.0)	NEC	N	77-79	W	100%
11-28	Austin Peay (193.0)	OVC	H	67-59	W	100%
12-1	Mercer (132.0)	ASun	H	72-79	L	0%
12-3	Kennesaw St. (331.0)	ASun	H	75-52	W	100%
12-6	Tennessee Martin (326.0)	OVC	H	70-55	W	100%
12-10	Tennessee Tech (138.0)	OVC	A	89-87	L	0%
12-15	Murray St. (22.0)	OVC	A	89-65	L	0%
12-19	Memphis (16.0)	CUSA	A	85-75	L	0%
12-21	Iowa St. (33.0)	B12	A	81-64	L	0%
1-2	Jacksonville (264.0)	ASun	A	71-77	W	100%
1-4	North Florida (180.0)	ASun	A	82-61	L	0%
1-6	Belmont (58.0)	ASun	A	74-85	W	100%
1-14	Florida Gulf Coast (208.0)	ASun	H	80-84	L	0%
1-16	Stetson (267.0)	ASun	H	104-103	W	100%
1-21	East Tennessee St. (179.0)	ASun	A	65-73	W	100%
1-23	South Carolina Upstate (140.0)	ASun	A	61-52	L	0%
1-28	North Florida (180.0)	ASun	H	59-71	L	0%
1-30	Jacksonville (264.0)	ASun	H	82-68	W	100%
2-3	Belmont (58.0)	ASun	H	58-84	L	0%
2-11	Stetson (267.0)	ASun	A	91-99	W	100%
2-13	Florida Gulf Coast (208.0)	ASun	A	89-68	L	0%
2-18	South Carolina Upstate (140.0)	ASun	H	61-62	L	0%
2-20	East Tennessee St. (179.0)	ASun	H	57-66	L	0%
2-23	Mercer (132.0)	ASun	A	63-54	L	0%
2-25	Kennesaw St. (331.0)	ASun	A	71-74	W	100%
2-29	Mercer (132.0)	ASun	A	61-53	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Lipscomb's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Lipscomb's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Lipscomb.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Lipscomb	ASun	26.42	26.42	42.25	42.25	-4.09	-4.09
Mercer	ASun	5.93	5.93	62.07	62.07	1.43	1.43
Belmont	ASun	4.51	4.51	80.65	80.65	2.76	2.76
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	4.45	4.45	41.38	41.38	-0.77	-0.77
East Tennessee St.	ASun	4.39	4.39	53.57	53.57	0.31	0.31
North Florida	ASun	4.32	4.32	44.83	44.83	-0.45	-0.45
Kennesaw St.	ASun	4.31	4.31	7.14	7.14	-3.70	-3.70
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	4.31	4.31	57.14	57.14	0.62	0.62
Jacksonville	ASun	4.31	4.31	28.57	28.57	-1.85	-1.85
Stetson	ASun	4.25	4.25	30.77	30.77	-1.63	-1.63
Tennessee Tech	OVC	1.99	1.99	55.17	55.17	0.21	0.21
Austin Peay	OVC	1.97	1.97	36.67	36.67	-0.53	-0.53
Murray St.	OVC	1.92	1.92	96.30	96.30	1.78	1.78
Tennessee Martin	OVC	1.90	1.90	7.14	7.14	-1.63	-1.63
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	1.86	1.86	33.33	33.33	-0.62	-0.62
Memphis	CUSA	1.77	1.77	75.76	75.76	0.91	0.91
Illinois St.	MVC	1.73	1.73	59.38	59.38	0.32	0.32
Illinois	B10	1.73	1.73	51.61	51.61	0.06	0.06
Gardner Webb	BSth	1.67	1.67	31.03	31.03	-0.63	-0.63
Iowa St.	B12	1.67	1.67	67.74	67.74	0.59	0.59
Sacred Heart	NEC	1.67	1.67	45.16	45.16	-0.16	-0.16
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.37	0.37	43.33	43.33	-0.05	-0.05
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.34	0.34	60.00	60.00	0.07	0.07
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.29	0.29	44.83	44.83	-0.03	-0.03
Morehead St.	OVC	0.26	0.26	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.24	0.24	37.04	37.04	-0.06	-0.06
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.23	0.23	46.67	46.67	-0.02	-0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.22	0.22	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri	B12	0.21	0.21	88.24	88.24	0.16	0.16
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.20	0.20	63.33	63.33	0.05	0.05
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.18	0.18	80.00	80.00	0.11	0.11
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.17	0.17	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.17	0.17	60.61	60.61	0.04	0.04
Florida	SEC	0.17	0.17	69.70	69.70	0.07	0.07
UAB	CUSA	0.16	0.16	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Troy	SB	0.16	0.16	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
Chattanooga	SC	0.16	0.16	27.59	27.59	-0.07	-0.07
Ohio St.	B10	0.16	0.16	79.41	79.41	0.09	0.09
Miami FL	ACC	0.16	0.16	61.29	61.29	0.04	0.04
Appalachian St.	SC	0.14	0.14	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Charlotte	A10	0.14	0.14	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Furman	SC	0.13	0.13	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Samford	SC	0.13	0.13	32.14	32.14	-0.05	-0.05
Central Florida	CUSA	0.13	0.13	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Tennessee	SEC	0.13	0.13	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.12	0.12	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
James Madison	CAA	0.12	0.12	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Indiana	B10	0.11	0.11	75.76	75.76	0.06	0.06
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.11	0.11	25.81	25.81	-0.05	-0.05
High Point	BSth	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
NC Asheville	BSth	0.11	0.11	70.00	70.00	0.04	0.04
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	10.34	10.34	-0.09	-0.09
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.11	0.11	25.00	25.00	-0.06	-0.06
Winthrop	BSth	0.11	0.11	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Alabama	SEC	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Auburn	SEC	0.11	0.11	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.11	0.11	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.11	0.11	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Missouri St.	MVC	0.11	0.11	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Kansas St.	B12	0.11	0.11	67.74	67.74	0.04	0.04
Nebraska	B10	0.11	0.11	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Michigan	B10	0.10	0.10	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
Tulsa	CUSA	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.10	0.10	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Arkansas St.	SB	0.09	0.09	39.39	39.39	-0.02	-0.02
Dayton	A10	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
St. Mary's	WCC	0.09	0.09	83.33	83.33	0.06	0.06
Chicago St.	GWC	0.08	0.08	10.71	10.71	-0.07	-0.07
Ohio	MAC	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Clemson	ACC	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.08	0.08	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.08	0.08	74.19	74.19	0.04	0.04
Evansville	MVC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.08	0.08	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.08	0.08	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Iowa	B10	0.08	0.08	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Long Island	NEC	0.08	0.08	75.76	75.76	0.04	0.04
Navy	Pat	0.08	0.08	7.14	7.14	-0.07	-0.07
Niagara	MAAC	0.08	0.08	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.08	0.08	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
Seton Hall	BE	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Texas	B12	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
East Carolina	CUSA	0.08	0.08	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.08	0.08	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Drake	MVC	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Creighton	MVC	0.08	0.08	84.85	84.85	0.05	0.05
Wichita St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	83.87	83.87	0.05	0.05
Ball St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.06	0.06	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Marquette	BE	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Radford	BSth	0.06	0.06	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
South Carolina	SEC	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Texas St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	34.62	34.62	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Wofford	SC	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Longwood	ind	0.05	0.05	22.22	22.22	-0.03	-0.03
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Maine	AE	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Christian	MWC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.05	74.29	74.29	0.03	0.03
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Bryant	NEC	0.05	0.05	6.67	6.67	-0.05	-0.05
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.05	0.05	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Texas A&M	B12	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Rutgers	BE	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.05	21.88	21.88	-0.03	-0.03
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Indiana St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.05	3.12	3.12	-0.05	-0.05
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	73.33	73.33	0.02	0.02
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.03	0.03	67.86	67.86	0.01	0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Western Kentucky	SB	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.03	0.03	23.08	23.08	-0.02	-0.02
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.03	0.03	29.63	29.63	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.03	0.03	34.62	34.62	-0.01	-0.01
Butler	Horz	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Liberty	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
West Virginia	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
California	P12	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
George Washington	A10	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Brown	Ivy	0.03	0.03	23.33	23.33	-0.01	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.03	0.03	10.34	10.34	-0.02	-0.02
Gonzaga	WCC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Hartford	AE	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Lafayette	Pat	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Lehigh	Pat	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Monmouth	NEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.03	0.03	30.77	30.77	-0.01	-0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Providence	BE	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Western Carolina	SC	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Yale	Ivy	0.03	0.03	65.38	65.38	0.01	0.01
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Fresno St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Houston	CUSA	0.02	0.02	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Tulane	CUSA	0.02	0.02	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Xavier	A10	0.02	0.02	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01