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Through games of Feb 9, 2016.


Lipscomb

Conference:ASun
Expected RPI:272.8
Current RPI:274
Expected SOS:180
Current SOS:167
Current Record:6-18
Expected Record:8-21
Current Conf Record:4-5
Expected Conf Record:6-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-7
Current OOC Record:2-13
Expected OOC Record:2-13
Expected OOC RPI:257
Expected OOC SOS:57



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-18233.72.23%
10-19250.914.39%
9-20266.633.70%
8-21280.332.70%
7-22292.714.82%
6-23303.72.15%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Lipscomb.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Santa Clara (262.9)WCCA63-65W100%0.0
11-14Milwaukee (166.6)HorzN65-71L0%0.0
11-15Denver (200.7)SumN82-69L0%0.0
11-20Miami OH (216.8)MACA70-68L0%0.0
11-21Northeastern (148.9)CAAN67-79L0%0.0
11-22Florida Atlantic (279.8)CUSAN65-79W100%0.0
11-27South Carolina (47.2)SECA92-76L0%0.0
12-1Belmont (83.7)OVCA105-89L0%0.0
12-5Tennessee Tech (98.1)OVCH78-81L0%0.0
12-7Belmont (83.7)OVCH84-93L0%0.0
12-12Princeton (52.6)IvyH64-78L0%0.0
12-17Tennessee St. (162.7)OVCA89-86L0%0.0
12-20Austin Peay (241.1)OVCH84-92L0%0.0
12-29Chattanooga (41.0)SCH56-80L0%0.0
1-2Akron (33.3)MACA80-73L0%0.0
1-9Kennesaw St. (293.8)ASunA102-86L0%0.0
1-14North Florida (136.9)ASunA95-83L0%0.0
1-16Jacksonville (243.7)ASunA76-73L0%0.0
1-21Stetson (305.4)ASunH92-87W100%0.0
1-24Florida Gulf Coast (215.7)ASunH91-75W100%0.0
1-27NJIT (185.9)ASunA72-81W100%0.0
1-30USC Upstate (326.4)ASunH91-92L0%0.0
2-1NJIT (185.9)ASunH78-90L0%0.0
2-6USC Upstate (326.4)ASunA65-78W100%0.0
2-11Jacksonville (243.7)ASunH0-063%3.7
2-13North Florida (136.9)ASunH0-034%-4.5
2-18Florida Gulf Coast (215.7)ASunA0-023%-8.2
2-20Stetson (305.4)ASunA0-056%1.6
2-25Kennesaw St. (293.8)ASunH0-074%7.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Lipscomb's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Lipscomb's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Lipscomb.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
LipscombASun26.3826.3926.6729.75-12.31-10.69
Kennesaw St.ASun2.824.3318.1820.36-1.79-2.57
StetsonASun2.644.2725.0028.12-1.32-1.87
North FloridaASun2.604.2463.6465.910.711.35
NJITASun4.544.2154.5555.670.410.48
JacksonvilleASun2.554.2047.6248.35-0.12-0.14
USC UpstateASun4.544.2020.0021.10-2.72-2.43
Florida Gulf CoastASun2.554.2050.0053.170.000.27
BelmontOVC4.353.6763.6464.061.191.03
Tennessee St.OVC2.412.1365.0061.210.720.48
Tennessee TechOVC2.352.0066.6765.370.780.61
Austin PeayOVC2.311.9134.7838.42-0.70-0.44
Miami OHMAC2.271.8731.8230.79-0.82-0.72
ChattanoogaSC2.181.8286.3686.171.581.31
DenverSum2.181.7852.1750.070.090.00
MilwaukeeHorz2.171.7857.1458.190.310.29
Santa ClaraWCC2.171.7831.8232.31-0.79-0.63
NortheasternCAA2.181.7843.4844.80-0.28-0.19
AkronMAC2.131.7881.8280.491.351.09
Florida AtlanticCUSA2.171.7823.8128.19-1.14-0.78
PrincetonIvy2.081.7270.5973.720.860.82
South CarolinaSEC2.081.7285.7178.391.490.98
Jacksonville St.OVC0.320.3725.0024.33-0.16-0.19
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.270.3152.0050.250.010.00
Morehead St.OVC0.230.2850.0052.370.000.01
IPFWSum0.270.2870.8368.550.110.10
FIUCUSA0.190.2540.9145.30-0.03-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.140.2231.8236.14-0.05-0.06
OhioMAC0.140.2163.6461.420.040.05
Murray St.OVC0.270.2145.4549.67-0.02-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.270.2117.3920.65-0.18-0.12
Tennessee MartinOVC0.220.2147.8350.19-0.010.00
NavyPat0.240.1962.5062.370.060.05
The CitadelSC0.230.1931.8230.06-0.09-0.08
Florida A&MMEAC0.140.1925.0025.08-0.07-0.09
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.230.1840.9143.54-0.04-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.230.1813.6415.77-0.17-0.13
Bowling GreenMAC0.190.1850.0045.840.00-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.220.1881.8283.040.140.12
Kent St.MAC0.130.1765.2260.590.040.04
FloridaSEC0.100.1666.6766.320.030.05
Texas A&MSEC0.190.1678.2677.860.110.09
East CarolinaAmer0.190.1643.4841.96-0.02-0.03
South DakotaSum0.140.1641.6741.23-0.02-0.03
SamfordSC0.130.1541.6742.60-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.180.1520.0019.68-0.11-0.09
LSUSEC0.090.1565.2260.260.030.03
ArkansasSEC0.140.1550.0053.100.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.180.1571.4369.410.080.06
Western MichiganMAC0.180.1531.8232.69-0.07-0.05
IUPUISum0.180.1540.0039.81-0.04-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.180.1521.7422.74-0.10-0.08
Georgia SouthernSB0.140.1340.0038.98-0.03-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.140.1377.2776.870.070.07
Youngstown St.Horz0.100.1330.4332.36-0.04-0.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.090.1327.2731.05-0.04-0.05
West VirginiaB120.090.1379.1778.090.060.07
ColumbiaIvy0.090.1266.6765.220.030.04
MarquetteBE0.140.1262.5056.050.030.01
UABCUSA0.140.1282.6179.370.090.07
YaleIvy0.140.1273.6874.680.070.06
LouisvilleACC0.090.1279.1776.070.050.06
MercerSC0.140.1269.5769.020.050.05
UCFAmer0.140.1250.0044.860.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.140.1252.1754.170.010.01
DaytonA100.140.1286.9682.300.100.08
Arizona St.P120.130.1254.1751.690.010.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.130.1237.5043.38-0.03-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.190.1281.8282.630.120.08
TennesseeSEC0.140.1250.0048.130.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.140.1259.0953.250.030.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.140.1240.0043.44-0.03-0.02
ElonCAA0.130.1252.1750.420.010.00
BYUWCC0.130.1266.6769.490.040.05
Central MichiganMAC0.180.1247.6249.35-0.01-0.00
HofstraCAA0.140.1265.2264.220.040.03
BuffaloMAC0.090.1156.5256.990.010.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.100.1071.4368.760.040.04
Florida St.ACC0.090.0969.5764.890.040.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.090.0959.0959.420.020.02
ClemsonACC0.140.0958.3358.310.020.02
HarvardIvy0.100.0935.0038.50-0.03-0.02
IllinoisB100.090.0945.8344.13-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.140.0921.7423.00-0.08-0.05
IndianaB100.090.0979.1774.040.050.04
WoffordSC0.130.0943.4846.22-0.02-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.090.0928.5731.30-0.04-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.130.0975.0076.250.070.05
San DiegoWCC0.090.0931.8229.12-0.03-0.04
South AlabamaSB0.130.0933.3334.22-0.04-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.130.0945.4546.24-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0959.0955.300.020.01
Boston UniversityPat0.130.0954.1755.600.010.01
DetroitHorz0.090.0947.6245.85-0.00-0.01
Green BayHorz0.090.0954.5556.020.010.01
KentuckySEC0.090.0975.0072.610.040.04
Oral RobertsSum0.090.0939.1341.10-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.130.0925.0023.40-0.07-0.05
Wright St.Horz0.140.0956.5257.010.020.01
Ball St.MAC0.090.0960.8757.190.020.01
DrexelCAA0.050.0913.6418.15-0.03-0.05
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.0960.0057.610.020.01
ToledoMAC0.090.0960.8762.040.020.02
La SalleA100.050.0720.0020.46-0.03-0.04
MassachusettsA100.050.0740.9139.33-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.050.0747.3749.93-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0626.0929.17-0.02-0.03
BrownIvy0.060.0631.5831.07-0.02-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.090.0652.3850.420.000.00
CornellIvy0.000.0642.1140.21-0.00-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.060.0631.5831.75-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.050.0621.7424.19-0.03-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.0629.1733.12-0.04-0.02
PennIvy0.060.0638.8937.63-0.01-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.090.0625.0026.86-0.05-0.03
RichmondA100.050.0654.5554.470.000.01
UMKCWAC0.090.0628.5732.73-0.04-0.02
WinthropBSth0.090.0665.0063.410.030.02
Air ForceMWC0.090.0645.4538.44-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.090.0654.1754.060.010.01
HartfordAE0.050.0625.0026.75-0.02-0.03
Saint LouisA100.050.0636.3633.54-0.01-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0614.2915.46-0.03-0.04
VCUA100.050.0673.9173.970.020.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.090.0650.0054.200.000.01
Miami FLACC0.100.0682.6177.520.070.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.110.0643.4850.65-0.010.00
AlbanyAE0.090.0676.0076.310.050.03
GonzagaWCC0.090.0678.2676.810.050.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.065.007.21-0.04-0.05
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0639.1338.57-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.090.0656.5256.320.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.040.0663.6462.150.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.090.0628.5726.98-0.04-0.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.090.0633.3335.06-0.03-0.02
OaklandHorz0.050.0668.0067.980.020.02
PacificWCC0.050.0625.0028.89-0.02-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.050.0656.5257.280.010.01
PortlandWCC0.090.0640.0038.51-0.02-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.090.0675.0070.990.040.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0685.7185.380.030.04
San FranciscoWCC0.090.0654.5550.110.010.00
St. Francis PANEC0.090.0650.0049.460.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.090.0676.1972.280.050.03
UC RiversideBW0.090.0645.8341.65-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.090.0634.7835.65-0.03-0.02
UMBCAE0.090.0624.0026.33-0.05-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.050.0652.1751.920.000.00
UTSACUSA0.050.0613.6413.63-0.03-0.04
Western IllinoisSum0.040.0627.7829.16-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.090.0650.0051.210.000.00
Michigan St.B100.090.0680.0081.600.050.04
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0656.5259.860.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.040.0663.6460.920.010.01
DelawareCAA0.090.0621.7423.34-0.05-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.040.0670.8369.490.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0643.4843.78-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0634.7830.33-0.01-0.02
TowsonCAA0.040.0665.2259.770.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.090.0676.1973.420.050.03
William & MaryCAA0.090.0671.4369.830.040.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0340.0040.31-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.060.0354.5558.160.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.060.0350.0051.920.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0315.0018.09-0.03-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.060.0359.0961.320.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0354.1750.940.000.00
IowaB100.050.0382.6180.550.030.02
LibertyBSth0.060.0334.7836.50-0.02-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.050.0334.7837.17-0.02-0.01
MarylandB100.060.0387.5083.700.040.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0320.0022.32-0.03-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0365.2268.600.010.01
RiderMAAC0.060.0340.0042.11-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0328.0030.73-0.02-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.060.0382.6178.910.040.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.060.0340.9143.29-0.01-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0328.5733.36-0.02-0.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0373.9170.050.020.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0342.8646.35-0.01-0.00
RadfordBSth0.050.0350.0051.300.000.00
VMISC0.000.0315.0016.72-0.00-0.02
ArizonaP120.050.0379.1778.350.030.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0324.0025.67-0.02-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0329.1726.74-0.02-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.040.0330.0034.55-0.02-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0334.7840.91-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.050.0360.8756.430.010.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.040.0352.3854.080.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.040.0345.0046.13-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.050.0326.0927.79-0.02-0.01
NevadaMWC0.050.0355.0054.530.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0333.3333.04-0.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.050.0370.8367.790.020.01
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0356.5262.790.010.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0328.5729.66-0.00-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0325.0022.73-0.02-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0331.5832.01-0.02-0.01
TroySB0.040.0323.8126.71-0.02-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.050.0372.7371.650.020.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.040.0333.3334.95-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.040.0365.0069.240.010.01
WisconsinB100.050.0360.8755.830.010.00
WyomingMWC0.040.0343.4842.49-0.01-0.00
AuburnSEC0.050.0339.1335.43-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0323.8126.56-0.02-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0314.2920.67-0.03-0.02
DePaulBE0.050.0333.3334.01-0.02-0.01
IonaMAAC0.050.0360.8760.720.010.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0360.8760.820.010.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0362.5058.930.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.040.0350.0049.090.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.050.0365.2261.470.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0342.8650.39-0.010.00
VermontAE0.040.0352.0054.860.000.00
VillanovaBE0.050.0387.5086.910.030.02
XavierBE0.050.0387.5081.810.030.02