Lipscomb

Conference:	ASun
Expected RPI:	101.0
Current RPI:	101
Expected SOS:	232
Current SOS:	232
Current Record:	20-9
Expected Record:	20-9
Current Conf Record:	13-4
Expected Conf Record:	13-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	14-3
Current OOC Record:	7-5
Expected OOC Record:	7-5
Expected OOC RPI:	24
Expected OOC SOS:	31

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
20-9	101.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Lipscomb.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-12	Morehead St. (292.0)	OVC	H	77-70	W	100%
11-14	Alabama (42.0)	SEC	A	86-64	L	0%
11-18	Texas (51.0)	B12	A	80-57	L	0%
11-20	Abilene Christian (260.0)	Slnd	A	67-75	W	100%
11-27	Belmont (81.0)	OVC	A	66-74	W	100%
11-29	Tennessee Tech (158.0)	OVC	A	86-80	L	0%
12-2	Tennessee St. (189.0)	OVC	A	86-95	W	100%
12-4	Belmont (81.0)	OVC	H	69-54	W	100%
12-9	Tennessee (8.0)	SEC	A	81-71	L	0%
12-17	Abilene Christian (260.0)	Slnd	H	67-65	W	100%
12-21	Navy (200.0)	Pat	A	64-73	W	100%
12-30	Purdue (9.0)	B10	A	98-66	L	0%
1-6	Kennesaw St. (301.0)	ASun	A	71-86	W	100%
1-11	North Florida (218.0)	ASun	A	102-96	L	0%
1-13	Jacksonville (286.0)	ASun	A	87-69	L	0%
1-18	Florida Gulf Coast (172.0)	ASun	H	83-88	L	0%
1-20	Stetson (325.0)	ASun	H	85-82	W	100%
1-24	USC Upstate (344.0)	ASun	H	92-78	W	100%
1-27	NJIT (269.0)	ASun	A	79-86	W	100%
1-29	USC Upstate (344.0)	ASun	A	106-110	W	100%
2-3	NJIT (269.0)	ASun	H	77-81	L	0%
2-8	Jacksonville (286.0)	ASun	H	82-59	W	100%
2-10	North Florida (218.0)	ASun	H	82-75	W	100%
2-15	Stetson (325.0)	ASun	A	73-82	W	100%
2-17	Florida Gulf Coast (172.0)	ASun	A	87-90	W	100%
2-22	Kennesaw St. (301.0)	ASun	H	83-74	W	100%
2-26	Stetson (325.0)	ASun	H	89-73	W	100%
3-1	Jacksonville (286.0)	ASun	N	77-62	W	100%
3-4	Florida Gulf Coast (172.0)	ASun	A	96-108	W	100%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Lipscomb's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Lipscomb's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Lipscomb.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Lipscomb	ASun	26.73	26.73	74.45	74.45	13.07	13.07
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	6.17	6.17	67.86	67.86	2.20	2.20
Jacksonville	ASun	6.07	6.07	38.46	38.46	-1.40	-1.40
Stetson	ASun	6.00	6.00	32.00	32.00	-2.16	-2.16
North Florida	ASun	4.49	4.49	35.71	35.71	-1.28	-1.28
Kennesaw St.	ASun	4.49	4.49	30.77	30.77	-1.73	-1.73
USC Upstate	ASun	4.49	4.49	11.54	11.54	-3.45	-3.45
NJIT	ASun	4.40	4.40	42.31	42.31	-0.68	-0.68
Belmont	OVC	3.63	3.63	77.42	77.42	1.99	1.99
Abilene Christian	Slnd	3.51	3.51	48.00	48.00	-0.14	-0.14
Tennessee St.	OVC	2.06	2.06	48.15	48.15	-0.08	-0.08
Tennessee Tech	OVC	2.02	2.02	53.33	53.33	0.13	0.13
Morehead St.	OVC	1.95	1.95	23.08	23.08	-1.05	-1.05
Navy	Pat	1.81	1.81	63.33	63.33	0.48	0.48
Purdue	B10	1.78	1.78	81.82	81.82	1.13	1.13
Texas	B12	1.78	1.78	56.25	56.25	0.22	0.22
Alabama	SEC	1.78	1.78	54.55	54.55	0.16	0.16
Tennessee	SEC	1.77	1.77	75.00	75.00	0.89	0.89
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.37	0.37	62.50	62.50	0.09	0.09
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.37	0.37	31.03	31.03	-0.14	-0.14
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.37	0.37	30.00	30.00	-0.15	-0.15
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.26	0.26	34.48	34.48	-0.08	-0.08
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.25	0.25	76.67	76.67	0.13	0.13
Michigan	B10	0.25	0.25	79.41	79.41	0.15	0.15
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.24	0.24	53.33	53.33	0.02	0.02
FIU	CUSA	0.23	0.23	37.93	37.93	-0.06	-0.06
Austin Peay	OVC	0.22	0.22	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.22	0.22	82.76	82.76	0.15	0.15
Campbell	BSth	0.22	0.22	46.43	46.43	-0.02	-0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.21	0.21	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.20	0.20	72.73	72.73	0.09	0.09
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.19	0.19	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.17	0.17	41.38	41.38	-0.03	-0.03
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.17	0.17	27.59	27.59	-0.08	-0.08
Denver	Sum	0.17	0.17	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.16	0.16	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.15	0.15	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Butler	BE	0.14	0.14	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Green Bay	Horz	0.14	0.14	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
Milwaukee	Horz	0.14	0.14	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.14	0.14	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.14	0.14	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Rutgers	B10	0.14	0.14	42.42	42.42	-0.02	-0.02
Florida	SEC	0.13	0.13	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
LSU	SEC	0.13	0.13	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
TCU	B12	0.13	0.13	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.13	0.13	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.13	0.13	70.59	70.59	0.05	0.05
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.13	0.13	12.50	12.50	-0.10	-0.10
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.13	0.13	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.13	0.13	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.13	0.13	80.00	80.00	0.08	0.08
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.13	0.13	30.77	30.77	-0.05	-0.05
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.12	0.12	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.12	0.12	68.75	68.75	0.04	0.04
UCF	Amer	0.12	0.12	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Colgate	Pat	0.12	0.12	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Lafayette	Pat	0.12	0.12	30.00	30.00	-0.05	-0.05
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.12	0.12	10.71	10.71	-0.09	-0.09
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Fairfield	MAAC	0.11	0.11	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Kansas St.	B12	0.11	0.11	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Seattle	WAC	0.11	0.11	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Washington	P12	0.11	0.11	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
West Virginia	B12	0.11	0.11	70.59	70.59	0.05	0.05
Mercer	SC	0.11	0.11	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Missouri	SEC	0.11	0.11	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.11	0.11	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
UT Arlington	SB	0.11	0.11	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.10	0.10	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Auburn	SEC	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Texas A&M	SEC	0.10	0.10	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Duquesne	A10	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Marist	MAAC	0.09	0.09	19.35	19.35	-0.06	-0.06
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.09	0.09	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
South Alabama	SB	0.09	0.09	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
South Florida	Amer	0.09	0.09	31.25	31.25	-0.03	-0.03
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.09	0.09	8.00	8.00	-0.08	-0.08
Georgetown	BE	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.09	0.09	13.33	13.33	-0.07	-0.07
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.09	0.09	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
UAB	CUSA	0.09	0.09	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.09	0.09	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
Miami FL	ACC	0.09	0.09	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.08	0.08	24.24	24.24	-0.04	-0.04
VCU	A10	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.08	0.08	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
Holy Cross	Pat	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.08	0.08	28.57	28.57	-0.04	-0.04
Siena	MAAC	0.08	0.08	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Wichita St.	Amer	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Kansas	B12	0.08	0.08	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
Michigan St.	B10	0.08	0.08	87.88	87.88	0.06	0.06
Arkansas	SEC	0.08	0.08	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Oklahoma	B12	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.08	0.08	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Air Force	MWC	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas St.	SB	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Lamar	Slnd	0.06	0.06	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	32.00	32.00	-0.02	-0.02
New Orleans	Slnd	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Texas St.	SB	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Brown	Ivy	0.06	0.06	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.06	0.06	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Creighton	BE	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Drexel	CAA	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Georgia Southern	SB	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.06	0.06	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Samford	SC	0.06	0.06	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Seton Hall	BE	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
UMass Lowell	AE	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
UMKC	WAC	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.06	0.06	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Yale	Ivy	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Wofford	SC	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
IUPUI	Horz	0.06	0.06	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
American	Pat	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Army	Pat	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Boston University	Pat	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Bucknell	Pat	0.06	0.06	73.53	73.53	0.03	0.03
Lehigh	Pat	0.06	0.06	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Loyola MD	Pat	0.06	0.06	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Furman	SC	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.05	0.05	16.13	16.13	-0.04	-0.04
Providence	BE	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Maryland	B10	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Xavier	BE	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.03	0.03	26.92	26.92	-0.01	-0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	15.62	15.62	-0.02	-0.02
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Delaware	CAA	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Penn	Ivy	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
High Point	BSth	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
New Hampshire	AE	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.03	0.03	71.43	71.43	0.01	0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Villanova	BE	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
BYU	WCC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Chicago St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	3.33	3.33	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois	B10	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Louisville	ACC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Memphis	Amer	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Valparaiso	MVC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00