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Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


Lipscomb

Conference:ASun
Expected RPI:293.7
Current RPI:340
Expected SOS:288
Current SOS:294
Current Record:1-7
Expected Record:9-19
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:6-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-9
Current OOC Record:1-7
Expected OOC Record:3-11
Expected OOC RPI:321
Expected OOC SOS:253



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-10125.00.01%
17-11141.00.01%
16-12163.20.10%
15-13192.00.41%
14-14207.91.39%
13-15229.33.52%
12-16251.08.09%
11-17270.013.71%
10-18287.518.08%
9-19302.319.44%
8-20314.815.46%
7-21324.111.11%
6-22332.55.72%
5-23337.72.23%
4-24342.20.53%
3-25344.80.17%
2-26350.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Lipscomb.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Morehead St. (225.6)OVCA89-75L0%0.0
11-18Saint Peter's (189.2)MAACN90-77L0%0.0
11-19Fairleigh Dickinson (253.1)NECN72-90L0%0.0
11-20Fordham (222.3)A10A85-69L0%0.0
11-26Cincinnati (18.5)AmerA91-68L0%0.0
11-29Belmont (106.9)OVCA64-62L0%0.0
12-1Tennessee Tech (305.9)OVCH104-85W100%0.0
12-3Tennessee St. (95.6)OVCH71-72L0%0.0
12-6Belmont (106.9)OVCH0-028%-7.1
12-10Morehead St. (225.6)OVCH0-050%-0.1
12-15Tennessee (130.0)SECA0-010%-15.5
12-17Tennessee Tech (305.9)OVCA0-045%-1.4
12-20Austin Peay (231.2)OVCA0-037%-4.0
12-29Missouri (183.4)SECA0-013%-13.3
1-7Kennesaw St. (309.0)ASunH0-070%6.5
1-12Stetson (319.1)ASunH0-074%7.7
1-14Florida Gulf Coast (85.8)ASunH0-024%-8.6
1-19Jacksonville (204.9)ASunA0-028%-7.1
1-21North Florida (255.3)ASunA0-037%-3.9
1-25USC Upstate (263.9)ASunH0-065%4.7
1-28NJIT (197.6)ASunA0-029%-6.7
1-30USC Upstate (263.9)ASunA0-045%-1.6
2-4NJIT (197.6)ASunH0-049%-0.4
2-9Florida Gulf Coast (85.8)ASunA0-011%-14.9
2-11Stetson (319.1)ASunA0-055%1.4
2-16North Florida (255.3)ASunH0-058%2.4
2-18Jacksonville (204.9)ASunH0-047%-0.8
2-23Kennesaw St. (309.0)ASunA0-051%0.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Lipscomb's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Lipscomb's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Lipscomb.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
LipscombASun28.6326.549.3734.06-23.26-8.46
Kennesaw St.ASun0.004.3925.0029.52-0.00-1.80
NJITASun0.004.3650.0048.900.00-0.10
StetsonASun0.004.3628.5727.67-0.00-1.95
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.004.3557.1471.070.001.83
JacksonvilleASun0.004.3557.1459.020.000.79
North FloridaASun0.004.3512.5033.39-0.00-1.45
USC UpstateASun0.004.3544.4441.00-0.00-0.78
Tennessee TechOVC6.253.9628.5727.54-2.68-1.78
BelmontOVC6.253.9240.0062.60-1.250.99
Morehead St.OVC6.253.920.0035.66-6.25-1.13
Tennessee St.OVC6.252.2783.3368.914.170.86
Austin PeayOVC0.002.0133.3335.76-0.00-0.57
TennesseeSEC0.001.8840.0039.43-0.00-0.40
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC7.091.870.0037.55-7.09-0.47
FordhamA107.221.8542.8639.28-1.03-0.40
Saint Peter'sMAAC7.161.8550.0048.710.00-0.05
CincinnatiAmer6.251.8285.7181.774.461.15
MissouriSEC0.001.8257.1441.010.00-0.33
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.5550.0050.840.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.5550.0046.410.00-0.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.3550.0041.990.00-0.06
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.3257.1450.080.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.2950.0061.240.000.07
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.2942.8638.63-0.00-0.07
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.2975.0054.670.000.03
FIUCUSA0.000.2614.2936.02-0.00-0.07
FloridaSEC0.520.2687.5075.240.390.13
AuburnSEC0.000.2285.7157.450.000.03
AlabamaSEC0.000.2257.1451.790.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.1914.2932.19-0.00-0.07
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.190.0022.58-0.00-0.11
VanderbiltSEC0.970.1950.0046.240.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.1985.7166.190.000.06
DavidsonA100.000.1671.4363.170.000.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.1675.0048.030.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.450.1657.1464.030.060.04
RiderMAAC0.390.1550.0048.810.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.780.150.0013.46-0.78-0.11
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.1342.8643.60-0.00-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.1328.5732.62-0.00-0.05
Air ForceMWC0.000.1357.1448.500.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.000.1342.8639.20-0.00-0.03
ColgatePat0.000.1312.5029.71-0.00-0.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.130.0020.75-0.00-0.08
PurdueB100.520.1375.0075.340.260.07
South AlabamaSB0.000.1371.4357.970.000.02
The CitadelSC0.000.1350.0030.350.00-0.05
Western KentuckyCUSA0.520.1337.5035.09-0.13-0.04
Michigan St.B100.000.1355.5658.610.000.02
Fort WayneSum0.000.1371.4370.210.000.05
IowaB100.000.1337.5037.74-0.00-0.03
St. Francis PANEC0.000.1333.3339.94-0.00-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.390.1383.3379.850.260.08
La SalleA100.000.1366.6755.540.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.1371.4349.170.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.000.1344.4434.65-0.00-0.04
SienaMAAC0.000.1337.5052.01-0.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.910.1262.5069.130.230.05
ConnecticutAmer0.000.1233.3339.61-0.00-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.000.1242.8630.92-0.00-0.05
South FloridaAmer0.000.1257.1433.230.00-0.04
TempleAmer0.000.1275.0064.920.000.04
UCFAmer0.000.1285.7176.240.000.06
MississippiSEC0.000.1275.0048.500.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.450.1087.5076.230.330.05
EvansvilleMVC0.520.1042.8644.71-0.07-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.520.1057.1453.990.070.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.1012.5033.65-0.00-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.000.1033.3327.06-0.00-0.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.390.1062.5067.390.100.03
MarshallCUSA0.520.0971.4354.860.220.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0933.3332.92-0.00-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0971.4373.040.000.04
LafayettePat0.450.0933.3333.36-0.15-0.03
MassachusettsA100.000.0971.4358.600.000.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.390.0937.5033.74-0.10-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0914.2926.74-0.00-0.04
CanisiusMAAC0.450.0937.5044.39-0.11-0.01
BrownIvy0.390.0955.5646.970.04-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0977.7849.900.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.390.0957.1436.010.06-0.03
KentuckySEC0.000.0987.5082.800.000.06
ManhattanMAAC0.450.0925.0034.40-0.22-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.000.09100.0078.850.000.05
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0966.6766.180.000.03
TulaneAmer0.000.0912.5023.93-0.00-0.05
Ball St.MAC0.000.0742.8647.11-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.000.07100.0076.590.000.04
BinghamtonAE0.000.0750.0043.560.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0742.8660.54-0.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0712.5030.39-0.00-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0720.0037.65-0.00-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0771.4351.460.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0728.5731.44-0.00-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0766.6761.550.000.02
DenverSum0.000.0742.8645.01-0.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0771.4355.160.000.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0716.6730.34-0.00-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.000.0755.5647.890.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.000.0742.8651.95-0.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.070.0038.27-0.00-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0750.0071.020.000.03
Miami FLACC0.000.0775.0066.100.000.02
North DakotaBSky0.000.0733.3354.32-0.000.01
PepperdineWCC0.520.0742.8633.23-0.07-0.02
PittsburghACC0.520.0775.0049.180.26-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.070.0027.12-0.00-0.03
SyracuseACC0.000.0771.4366.700.000.02
UMKCWAC0.000.0762.5052.330.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0757.1467.260.000.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0722.2221.23-0.00-0.04
Wright St.Horz0.000.0762.5051.790.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0742.8638.17-0.00-0.02
BryantNEC0.000.0625.0047.82-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0650.0060.620.000.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0612.5029.15-0.00-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.000.0657.1454.360.000.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0671.4355.820.000.01
MercerSC0.000.0642.8647.76-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.000.0675.0066.460.000.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0687.5068.020.000.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0611.1148.19-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.000.0642.8646.14-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.000.0628.5734.28-0.00-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0622.2241.71-0.00-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0628.5738.15-0.00-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.000.0622.2238.49-0.00-0.01
UMBCAE0.000.0680.0054.540.000.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0642.8650.06-0.000.00
WagnerNEC0.000.0633.3354.47-0.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0671.4373.490.000.03
RutgersB100.000.0685.7145.370.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.390.0671.4356.250.170.01
FurmanSC0.000.0633.3356.24-0.000.01
OhioMAC0.390.0683.3371.480.260.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.390.0650.0058.040.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.390.0640.0058.82-0.080.01
DuquesneA100.000.0644.4442.03-0.00-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0671.4359.880.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0657.1452.030.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0675.0070.620.000.02
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0625.0035.09-0.00-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0628.5736.95-0.00-0.02
RichmondA100.000.0650.0048.210.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0642.8645.30-0.00-0.01
XavierBE0.000.0687.5070.890.000.02
HoustonAmer0.000.0685.7178.280.000.03
SMUAmer0.000.0666.6766.860.000.02
TulsaAmer0.000.0650.0038.050.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.0388.8978.400.000.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0375.0051.040.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.450.0312.5023.75-0.33-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.450.0333.3332.35-0.15-0.01
UC DavisBW0.450.0350.0045.970.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.520.0342.8650.09-0.070.00
DelawareCAA0.000.0350.0041.990.00-0.01
IndianaB100.000.0387.5074.490.000.02
Ohio St.B100.520.0387.5068.610.390.01
Seton HallBE0.520.0371.4354.560.220.00
TowsonCAA0.000.0342.8653.19-0.000.00
WoffordSC0.000.030.0034.81-0.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0316.6729.80-0.00-0.01
ArizonaP120.000.0375.0068.370.000.01
Boston UniversityPat0.450.0342.8654.90-0.060.00
ElonCAA0.000.0371.4359.470.000.01
George MasonA100.000.0362.5046.900.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0355.5641.690.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.000.03100.0091.920.000.02
HarvardIvy0.390.0320.0046.79-0.23-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0039.53-0.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.0362.5050.710.000.00
Kansas St.B120.000.0387.5059.310.000.01
MarylandB100.000.0387.5059.330.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0387.5081.960.000.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0357.1471.520.000.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0320.0041.92-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0077.380.000.02
OregonP120.000.0375.0072.250.000.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0328.5723.78-0.00-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.0371.4370.390.000.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0337.5037.03-0.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.0375.0073.060.000.01
WisconsinB100.000.0377.7876.040.000.02
AlbanyAE0.390.0342.8661.11-0.060.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.390.0328.5741.52-0.17-0.00
ButlerBE0.000.03100.0074.440.000.01
Iowa St.B120.390.0371.4368.070.170.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0375.0055.500.000.00
Penn St.B100.390.0366.6746.420.13-0.00
SamfordSC0.390.0362.5056.520.100.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0350.0066.300.000.01