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Through games of Jan 21, 2018.


Lipscomb

Conference:ASun
Expected RPI:133.1
Current RPI:89
Expected SOS:223
Current SOS:111
Current Record:9-8
Expected Record:15-11
Current Conf Record:2-3
Expected Conf Record:8-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-4
Current OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:22
Expected OOC SOS:23



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-884.72.83%
17-9100.515.99%
16-10119.630.42%
15-11141.628.77%
14-12163.415.75%
13-13184.25.07%
12-14203.60.98%
11-15220.00.18%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Lipscomb.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Morehead St. (262.1)OVCH77-70W100%0.0
11-14Alabama (40.5)SECA86-64L0%0.0
11-18Texas (46.2)B12A80-57L0%0.0
11-20Abilene Christian (227.7)SlndA67-75W100%0.0
11-27Belmont (82.3)OVCA66-74W100%0.0
11-29Tennessee Tech (170.9)OVCA86-80L0%0.0
12-2Tennessee St. (211.6)OVCA86-95W100%0.0
12-4Belmont (82.3)OVCH69-54W100%0.0
12-9Tennessee (24.1)SECA81-71L0%0.0
12-17Abilene Christian (227.7)SlndH67-65W100%0.0
12-21Navy (220.0)PatA64-73W100%0.0
12-30Purdue (6.5)B10A98-66L0%0.0
1-6Kennesaw St. (313.7)ASunA71-86W100%0.0
1-11North Florida (241.9)ASunA102-96L0%0.0
1-13Jacksonville (301.6)ASunA87-69L0%0.0
1-18Florida Gulf Coast (149.6)ASunH83-88L0%0.0
1-20Stetson (305.8)ASunH85-82W100%0.0
1-24USC Upstate (335.9)ASunH0-090%14.0
1-27NJIT (275.0)ASunA0-056%1.7
1-29USC Upstate (335.9)ASunA0-075%7.6
2-3NJIT (275.0)ASunH0-077%8.1
2-8Jacksonville (301.6)ASunH0-088%13.1
2-10North Florida (241.9)ASunH0-081%9.9
2-15Stetson (305.8)ASunA0-067%4.8
2-17Florida Gulf Coast (149.6)ASunA0-024%-7.9
2-22Kennesaw St. (313.7)ASunH0-085%11.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Lipscomb's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Lipscomb's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Lipscomb.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
LipscombASun26.6626.5262.6765.916.758.44
USC UpstateASun0.494.7611.1118.03-0.38-3.04
Kennesaw St.ASun3.424.7617.6526.31-2.22-2.25
Florida Gulf CoastASun3.184.7355.5664.570.351.38
North FloridaASun3.104.7027.7833.29-1.38-1.57
JacksonvilleASun3.104.6929.4131.99-1.28-1.69
NJITASun0.324.6938.8943.34-0.07-0.62
StetsonASun3.104.6935.2938.55-0.91-1.07
BelmontOVC5.964.0578.9579.813.452.42
Abilene ChristianSlnd5.883.9260.0056.861.180.54
Tennessee St.OVC3.252.3237.5042.04-0.81-0.37
Tennessee TechOVC3.422.2655.5651.520.380.07
Morehead St.OVC3.102.1825.0029.79-1.55-0.88
NavyPat3.021.9963.1657.060.790.28
PurdueB103.111.9990.0087.982.491.51
TexasB123.111.9961.1156.220.690.25
AlabamaSEC3.021.9966.6757.611.010.30
TennesseeSEC3.011.9970.5967.861.240.71
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.240.4031.5832.72-0.09-0.14
Jacksonville St.OVC0.400.4070.0068.220.160.15
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.460.3736.8432.76-0.12-0.13
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.310.2629.4133.93-0.13-0.08
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.380.2472.2274.710.170.12
MichiganB100.310.2376.1970.740.160.10
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.250.2150.0052.460.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.350.2145.0049.29-0.03-0.00
CampbellBSth0.250.2147.0647.41-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.250.2158.8249.760.04-0.00
FIUCUSA0.240.2135.2935.54-0.07-0.06
Texas TechB120.330.2078.9571.810.190.09
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.310.2042.1143.51-0.05-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.310.2026.3231.50-0.15-0.07
Austin PeayOVC0.300.2044.4446.00-0.03-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.300.2070.5975.950.130.10
DenverSum0.150.1733.3336.48-0.05-0.05
ButlerBE0.320.1766.6763.070.110.04
GeorgiaSEC0.080.1766.6755.940.030.02
MinnesotaB100.150.1663.6457.630.040.03
FloridaSEC0.080.1673.6871.560.040.07
LSUSEC0.150.1661.1153.170.030.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.150.1672.2258.920.070.03
TCUB120.290.1673.6865.600.140.05
VanderbiltSEC0.300.1636.8435.57-0.08-0.05
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.147.6920.090.00-0.09
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.170.1443.7549.13-0.02-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.170.1452.9455.030.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.170.1480.0078.850.100.08
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.147.6923.280.00-0.08
Gardner WebbBSth0.080.1438.8940.78-0.02-0.03
ColgatePat0.070.1450.0051.030.000.00
LafayettePat0.070.1422.2227.47-0.04-0.06
MercerSC0.240.1344.4454.86-0.030.01
Green BayHorz0.220.1325.0027.94-0.11-0.06
Houston BaptistSlnd0.310.135.8819.35-0.28-0.08
MilwaukeeHorz0.220.1345.0047.07-0.02-0.01
RutgersB100.070.1355.0046.690.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.220.1357.8954.500.040.01
WashingtonP120.220.1370.0061.440.090.03
West VirginiaB120.080.1384.2178.170.050.08
Kansas St.B120.000.1373.6862.720.000.03
MissouriSEC0.160.1366.6763.200.050.03
MississippiSEC0.000.1352.6345.860.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.170.1155.5656.740.020.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.160.1065.0056.340.050.01
FairfieldMAAC0.150.1038.8944.08-0.03-0.01
NebraskaB100.150.1066.6759.820.050.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.250.107.1414.82-0.21-0.07
UCFAmer0.160.1068.4260.860.060.02
Miami FLACC0.150.1077.7870.480.080.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.150.1033.3335.21-0.05-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.150.1010.0019.63-0.12-0.06
Michigan St.B100.080.1085.0083.200.050.07
Rhode IslandA100.150.1083.3381.430.100.06
UT ArlingtonSB0.150.1060.0062.030.030.02
VCUA100.150.1060.0059.700.030.02
KansasB120.160.1084.2179.750.110.06
KentuckySEC0.080.1073.6867.970.040.03
South CarolinaSEC0.160.1061.1151.910.040.00
AuburnSEC0.160.0989.4777.000.130.05
Iowa St.B120.080.0961.1147.220.02-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.160.0968.4263.960.060.03
OklahomaB120.000.0977.7867.910.000.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.210.0968.4270.810.080.04
Air ForceMWC0.170.0737.5031.76-0.04-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.170.0727.7831.11-0.08-0.03
BrownIvy0.000.0750.0045.140.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0772.2274.930.000.04
DrexelCAA0.000.0730.0030.990.00-0.03
DuquesneA100.080.0770.0058.090.030.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0723.5332.570.00-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.080.0773.6869.640.040.03
Fort WayneSum0.080.0752.6351.690.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.080.0768.4254.070.030.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0766.6765.370.030.02
HofstraCAA0.080.0757.8959.490.010.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0760.0064.110.000.02
LamarSlnd0.000.0750.0054.890.000.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0740.0042.520.00-0.01
MaristMAAC0.080.0721.0522.02-0.05-0.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.170.0728.5731.26-0.07-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.170.0737.5045.24-0.04-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0750.0051.380.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0744.4450.31-0.010.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0711.1115.29-0.06-0.05
SamfordSC0.080.0727.7832.66-0.04-0.02
Seton HallBE0.000.0775.0067.890.000.03
South AlabamaSB0.080.0750.0045.870.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0727.7831.71-0.04-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.080.0735.0026.12-0.02-0.03
Texas St.SB0.170.0757.8950.210.030.00
UABCUSA0.080.0761.1164.130.020.02
UMass LowellAE0.000.0733.3333.870.00-0.02
WagnerNEC0.000.0764.7164.570.000.02
Wright St.Horz0.080.0768.4269.250.030.03
YaleIvy0.080.0741.1847.56-0.01-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0725.0031.450.00-0.03
CreightonBE0.000.0775.0070.700.000.03
UMKCWAC0.000.0721.0524.750.00-0.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0752.6358.590.000.01
Ball St.MAC0.080.0761.1158.700.020.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0746.6746.97-0.01-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0737.5037.68-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0747.3746.09-0.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0742.1144.96-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0730.0032.52-0.03-0.02
SienaMAAC0.080.0728.5729.94-0.03-0.03
Wichita St.Amer0.080.0778.9577.380.040.04
WoffordSC0.080.0768.7563.690.030.02
IUPUIHorz0.160.0727.7829.83-0.07-0.03
FurmanSC0.160.0766.6768.540.050.02
IndianaB100.080.0657.8950.710.010.00
AmericanPat0.070.0626.3228.11-0.03-0.03
ArmyPat0.070.0661.1160.440.020.01
Boston UniversityPat0.070.0650.0053.260.000.00
BucknellPat0.000.0661.9068.020.000.02
Holy CrossPat0.070.0626.3230.49-0.03-0.03
LehighPat0.070.0638.8944.75-0.02-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.070.0622.2228.66-0.04-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.080.0668.4264.200.030.02
ArizonaP120.150.0680.0078.940.090.04
BaylorB120.080.0661.1156.090.020.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.150.0652.6355.290.010.01
MarylandB100.070.0670.0065.250.030.02
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0668.4254.090.030.01
PepperdineWCC0.140.0610.5318.34-0.11-0.04
ProvidenceBE0.140.0670.0060.470.060.01
WisconsinB100.070.0650.0046.300.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.090.0416.6724.26-0.06-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.090.0461.9063.140.020.01
MarshallCUSA0.090.0468.4263.650.030.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.090.0466.6773.210.030.02
Virginia TechACC0.090.0468.4257.740.030.01
XavierBE0.090.0485.7180.080.060.02
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0362.5058.690.020.01
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0322.2228.59-0.04-0.01
DaytonA100.080.0347.3750.94-0.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0315.7920.91-0.05-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0325.0028.01-0.04-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.080.0345.0048.56-0.01-0.00
BryantNEC0.070.039.5217.12-0.06-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.070.0320.0032.25-0.04-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.039.5217.90-0.06-0.02
DelawareCAA0.070.0347.3743.02-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.080.0352.6343.110.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.080.0343.7549.23-0.01-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0329.4139.63-0.03-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.080.0380.0075.060.050.02
PennIvy0.070.0364.7162.720.020.01
PittsburghACC0.070.0340.0030.87-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.080.0327.7827.10-0.04-0.01
VillanovaBE0.080.0394.7490.310.070.03
Wake ForestACC0.080.0342.1140.46-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.0310.5316.75-0.06-0.02
BYUWCC0.080.0380.9576.240.050.02
Chicago St.WAC0.070.030.003.07-0.07-0.03
DukeACC0.080.0389.4785.210.060.02
GonzagaWCC0.080.0380.9583.260.050.02
IllinoisB100.000.0347.3744.270.00-0.00
IowaB100.070.0347.6244.02-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.070.0378.9569.790.040.01
MarquetteBE0.070.0368.4260.550.030.01
MemphisAmer0.080.0365.0058.540.020.01
New HampshireAE0.080.0333.3340.08-0.03-0.01
NorthwesternB100.070.0355.0050.330.010.00
Ohio St.B100.000.0380.9576.520.000.02
Penn St.B100.000.0361.9055.760.000.00
ValparaisoMVC0.070.0347.3748.77-0.00-0.00