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Through games of Jan 28, 2015.


Lipscomb

Conference:ASun
Expected RPI:259.4
Current RPI:266
Expected SOS:311
Current SOS:296
Current Record:7-10
Expected Record:11-15
Current Conf Record:4-1
Expected Conf Record:8-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-4
Current OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC RPI:297
Expected OOC SOS:271



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-10155.00.01%
15-11182.20.28%
14-12201.22.40%
13-13221.111.07%
12-14241.423.99%
11-15262.431.15%
10-16283.121.51%
9-17300.28.02%
8-18313.21.48%
7-19321.90.08%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Lipscomb.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17Belmont (127.3)OVCH62-87L0%0.0
11-20Vanderbilt (124.1)SECA72-62L0%0.0
11-24Belmont (127.3)OVCA82-77L0%0.0
11-30Colorado (94.3)P12A84-75L0%0.0
12-3Tennessee Tech (219.8)OVCA84-79L0%0.0
12-6Tennessee St. (338.8)OVCH77-68W100%0.0
12-13Austin Peay (298.0)OVCA59-68W100%0.0
12-16Texas (25.7)B12A106-61L0%0.0
12-19Princeton (231.5)IvyA77-55L0%0.0
12-21Austin Peay (298.0)OVCH69-63W100%0.0
12-29Chattanooga (138.2)SCA78-60L0%0.0
1-3Missouri (192.4)SECA72-60L0%0.0
1-10Northern Kentucky (230.1)ASunH80-61W100%0.0
1-13USC Upstate (221.3)ASunH60-58W100%0.0
1-17Kennesaw St. (326.5)ASunA77-91W100%0.0
1-22Jacksonville (342.2)ASunH80-77W100%0.0
1-24North Florida (164.3)ASunH66-75L0%0.0
1-29Florida Gulf Coast (133.7)ASunA0-015%-11.5
1-31Stetson (340.2)ASunA0-061%3.0
2-7Northern Kentucky (230.1)ASunA0-034%-4.5
2-12Stetson (340.2)ASunH0-081%9.9
2-14Florida Gulf Coast (133.7)ASunH0-034%-4.7
2-19North Florida (164.3)ASunA0-015%-11.4
2-21Jacksonville (342.2)ASunA0-071%6.1
2-25USC Upstate (221.3)ASunA0-019%-9.5
2-28Kennesaw St. (326.5)ASunH0-083%10.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Lipscomb's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Lipscomb's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Lipscomb.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
LipscombASun26.6526.5143.2846.88-3.58-1.66
North FloridaASun3.414.8250.0057.920.000.76
Kennesaw St.ASun3.264.7626.3226.91-1.54-2.20
Northern KentuckyASun3.334.7141.1844.28-0.59-0.54
JacksonvilleASun3.104.6922.2221.80-1.72-2.64
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.314.6861.1165.870.071.49
StetsonASun0.314.6811.7618.60-0.24-2.94
USC UpstateASun3.104.6864.7164.710.911.38
Austin PeayOVC6.274.0529.4128.66-2.58-1.73
BelmontOVC6.114.0558.8260.091.080.82
Tennessee TechOVC3.332.3738.8943.57-0.74-0.30
Tennessee St.OVC3.402.305.5610.87-3.02-1.80
ChattanoogaSC3.172.0961.1160.680.710.45
VanderbiltSEC3.021.9950.0051.410.000.06
MissouriSEC2.941.9629.4127.77-1.21-0.87
ColoradoP122.941.9250.0049.460.00-0.02
PrincetonIvy2.941.9240.0040.90-0.59-0.35
TexasB122.941.9268.4266.241.080.62
Morehead St.OVC0.310.4138.1045.39-0.07-0.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.230.4135.0031.76-0.07-0.15
Florida A&MMEAC0.240.350.004.63-0.24-0.32
Tennessee MartinOVC0.310.3458.8257.890.060.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.3452.9458.930.000.06
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.390.3138.8940.58-0.09-0.06
FIUCUSA0.160.2843.7540.97-0.02-0.05
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.460.2757.8956.230.070.03
Murray St.OVC0.310.2778.9580.940.180.17
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.460.2735.2935.02-0.14-0.08
SamfordSC0.380.2736.3636.07-0.10-0.08
Mississippi St.SEC0.240.2742.1135.02-0.04-0.08
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.250.2115.0023.69-0.17-0.11
Wright St.Horz0.390.2145.0046.63-0.04-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.150.2121.0530.50-0.09-0.08
AlabamaSEC0.150.2063.1658.860.040.04
ButlerBE0.310.1771.4370.620.130.07
ElonCAA0.230.1745.0042.60-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.310.1761.9060.270.070.03
FloridaSEC0.080.1655.0055.300.010.02
TennesseeSEC0.240.1663.1654.180.060.01
CaliforniaP120.240.1655.0045.900.02-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.310.1673.6866.480.150.05
IdahoBSky0.160.1437.5043.72-0.04-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.1447.0654.30-0.000.01
UCFAmer0.080.1442.1139.25-0.01-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.080.1452.3845.690.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.160.1450.0043.540.00-0.02
OhioMAC0.150.1438.8935.54-0.03-0.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.1442.8642.74-0.01-0.02
IPFWSum0.080.1435.2938.10-0.02-0.03
UMKCWAC0.240.1431.5838.41-0.09-0.03
FurmanSC0.080.1423.5328.46-0.04-0.06
HamptonMEAC0.240.1440.0038.72-0.05-0.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.160.1435.0034.45-0.05-0.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.310.1470.5967.510.130.05
BrownIvy0.150.1341.1837.75-0.03-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.310.1357.8956.260.050.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.310.1338.1036.84-0.07-0.04
West VirginiaB120.160.1385.0075.810.110.07
MississippiSEC0.150.1365.0063.100.050.03
PurdueB100.240.1361.9058.760.060.02
South CarolinaSEC0.080.1350.0051.200.000.00
MercerSC0.070.1347.3751.58-0.000.00
AuburnSEC0.240.1347.3738.48-0.01-0.03
KentuckySEC0.230.13100.0098.450.230.12
WisconsinB100.160.1090.0087.320.130.08
Georgia TechACC0.160.1050.0046.850.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.080.1043.7552.25-0.010.00
San FranciscoWCC0.080.1040.0041.94-0.02-0.02
WyomingMWC0.080.1078.9573.780.040.05
XavierBE0.080.1066.6765.800.030.03
LibertyBSth0.170.1011.7617.58-0.13-0.07
East Tennessee St.SC0.080.1058.8259.230.010.02
IowaB100.150.1065.0063.250.050.03
USCP120.150.1047.3740.18-0.01-0.02
PennIvy0.170.1033.3334.33-0.06-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.150.1036.8441.48-0.04-0.02
YaleIvy0.080.1064.7164.150.020.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.150.1016.6721.96-0.10-0.05
North Dakota St.Sum0.150.1061.1160.430.030.02
ArizonaP120.160.1090.4887.950.130.07
ArkansasSEC0.160.1080.0072.660.100.04
Texas A&MSEC0.080.1073.6865.320.040.03
TCUB120.150.1070.0059.680.060.02
BaylorB120.080.0973.6869.340.040.04
OklahomaB120.160.0965.0066.210.050.03
Oklahoma St.B120.160.0968.4260.940.060.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.080.0733.3331.74-0.03-0.03
DavidsonA100.000.0776.4776.940.000.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.080.0770.5973.610.030.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0771.4369.460.000.03
Green BayHorz0.000.0778.9577.900.000.04
IonaMAAC0.000.0771.4374.820.000.04
MaristMAAC0.000.0710.0013.95-0.00-0.05
MarylandB100.080.0785.7177.600.060.04
MassachusettsA100.000.0752.6353.060.000.00
MemphisAmer0.080.0765.0061.600.020.02
NebraskaB100.080.0760.0049.340.02-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0750.0061.990.000.02
PittsburghACC0.000.0760.0052.080.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0766.6768.890.000.03
ToledoMAC0.080.0760.0058.630.020.01
DenverSum0.150.0745.0047.69-0.02-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.150.0775.0069.810.080.03
FairfieldMAAC0.150.0730.0029.50-0.06-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.150.0745.0044.02-0.02-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0790.4885.060.060.05
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.150.0722.2240.77-0.09-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.150.0782.3584.880.100.05
TroySB0.150.0731.2531.44-0.06-0.03
VCUA100.150.0785.0082.100.110.04
Appalachian St.SB0.080.0744.4441.02-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.080.0750.0052.160.000.00
HofstraCAA0.080.0763.6468.380.020.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0725.0037.83-0.04-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0759.0956.180.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.080.0730.0031.90-0.03-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0753.3356.000.000.01
CornellIvy0.000.0747.0648.27-0.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.000.0750.0050.950.000.00
HarvardIvy0.000.0764.2965.390.000.02
Kent St.MAC0.070.0773.6866.800.030.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.170.0747.6250.25-0.010.00
SyracuseACC0.070.0766.6758.780.020.01
The CitadelSC0.080.0729.4131.68-0.03-0.02
UMBCAE0.070.0714.2916.99-0.05-0.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0716.6722.15-0.05-0.04
VMISC0.080.0731.5837.72-0.03-0.02
WoffordSC0.080.0773.6873.930.040.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.170.0757.1462.500.020.02
Arizona St.P120.080.0652.3853.760.000.00
LSUSEC0.160.0680.0070.790.100.03
UCLAP120.080.0655.0052.200.010.00
UtahP120.080.0683.3383.740.050.04
WashingtonP120.080.0670.0063.190.030.02
Washington St.P120.080.0647.3738.08-0.00-0.02
StanfordP120.070.0675.0071.410.040.03
Iowa St.B120.070.0678.9569.410.040.02
KansasB120.070.0685.0077.530.050.03
Kansas St.B120.000.0657.1446.820.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.070.0652.3840.070.00-0.01
TulaneAmer0.080.0360.0052.530.020.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.080.0364.7165.470.020.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.090.0333.3334.41-0.03-0.01
George MasonA100.090.0329.4131.81-0.04-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.090.0358.3365.200.020.01
LafayettePat0.090.0357.8959.760.010.01
RiderMAAC0.090.0361.9062.460.020.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0350.0054.890.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.090.0345.0045.99-0.01-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.090.030.001.52-0.09-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.080.0355.0060.950.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.090.0361.9066.000.020.01
UABCUSA0.080.0347.3749.93-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.090.0363.1668.500.020.01
VirginiaACC0.080.03100.0094.050.080.03
Wake ForestACC0.090.0342.8638.96-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.080.0338.8937.23-0.02-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0385.0081.570.050.02
DePaulBE0.080.0352.3843.960.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.080.0331.5832.45-0.03-0.01
George WashingtonA100.080.0376.1969.640.040.01
HawaiiBW0.080.0363.1657.290.020.00
La SalleA100.080.0355.0053.280.010.00
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0347.3749.55-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.000.0365.0058.730.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0368.4260.540.000.01
RutgersB100.080.0347.6238.09-0.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.080.0344.4437.23-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.080.0380.0079.170.050.02
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0361.1160.440.020.01
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0342.1151.95-0.010.00
RiceCUSA0.070.0325.0028.06-0.04-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0350.0055.540.000.00
Texas St.SB0.070.0343.7545.80-0.01-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0361.1159.740.020.01