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Through games of Dec 20, 2014.


Arizona

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:14.7
Current RPI:13
Expected SOS:50
Current SOS:107
Current Record:12-0
Expected Record:26-5
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:10-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:12-0
Expected OOC Record:13-0
Expected OOC RPI:14
Expected OOC SOS:154



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
31-02.80.05%
30-14.20.71%
29-25.44.14%
28-37.310.12%
27-49.617.52%
26-512.420.90%
25-615.520.11%
24-719.413.90%
23-824.57.57%
22-930.93.36%
21-1040.51.27%
20-1150.80.30%
19-1271.00.02%
18-1380.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Arizona.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Mount St. Mary's (235.7)NECH78-55W100%0.0
11-16Cal St. Northridge (309.2)BWH86-68W100%0.0
11-19UC Irvine (201.6)BWH71-54W100%0.0
11-24Missouri (181.2)SECN72-53W100%0.0
11-25Kansas St. (117.4)B12N72-68W100%0.0
11-26San Diego St. (35.4)MWCN59-61W100%0.0
12-2Gardner Webb (166.3)BSthH91-65W100%0.0
12-6Gonzaga (11.4)WCCH66-63W100%0.0
12-9Utah Valley (291.9)WACH87-56W100%0.0
12-13Michigan (150.1)B10H80-53W100%0.0
12-16Oakland (234.3)HorzH101-64W100%0.0
12-19UTEP (70.6)CUSAA55-60W100%0.0
12-23UNLV (142.3)MWCA0-082%10.8
1-4Arizona St. (125.5)P12H0-087%13.1
1-8Oregon (106.6)P12A0-064%4.2
1-11Oregon St. (128.3)P12A0-068%5.3
1-15Colorado (68.9)P12H0-082%10.8
1-17Utah (12.1)P12H0-055%1.6
1-22Stanford (70.3)P12A0-059%2.5
1-24California (48.0)P12A0-055%1.6
1-28Oregon (106.6)P12H0-086%12.6
1-30Oregon St. (128.3)P12H0-088%13.7
2-7Arizona St. (125.5)P12A0-066%4.7
2-13Washington (30.0)P12A0-050%0.0
2-15Washington St. (211.9)P12A0-089%14.1
2-19USC (188.5)P12H0-096%20.6
2-21UCLA (80.6)P12H0-086%12.4
2-26Colorado (68.9)P12A0-058%2.5
2-28Utah (12.1)P12A0-028%-6.8
3-5California (48.0)P12H0-080%9.9
3-7Stanford (70.3)P12H0-082%10.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Arizona's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Arizona's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Arizona.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ArizonaP1227.5326.23100.0083.2627.5317.45
Arizona St.P120.004.0254.5550.200.000.02
OregonP120.403.9670.0059.760.160.77
UtahP120.193.9380.0082.160.112.53
StanfordP120.003.9066.6760.370.000.81
CaliforniaP120.003.8790.9171.570.001.67
Oregon St.P120.003.8777.7858.740.000.68
ColoradoP120.003.8766.6760.180.000.79
WashingtonP120.402.48100.0076.320.401.31
Washington St.P120.402.4840.0028.71-0.08-1.06
UCLAP120.192.4666.6755.820.060.29
USCP120.002.4360.0037.530.00-0.61
UNLVMWC0.001.8366.6750.650.000.02
San Diego St.MWC4.361.7880.0075.082.610.89
Cal St. NorthridgeBW4.361.7520.0023.27-2.61-0.94
UC IrvineBW4.171.7242.8648.17-0.60-0.06
MichiganB104.171.6755.5641.890.46-0.27
UTEPCUSA4.171.6766.6773.831.390.79
GonzagaWCC4.171.67100.0093.674.171.45
Gardner WebbBSth4.171.6142.8652.24-0.600.07
Kansas St.B124.171.6170.0041.531.67-0.27
MissouriSEC4.171.6144.4433.37-0.46-0.54
Mount St. Mary'sNEC4.171.6137.5042.67-1.04-0.24
OaklandHorz4.171.6130.0033.61-1.67-0.53
Utah ValleyWAC4.171.6133.3340.06-1.39-0.32
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.2537.5063.95-0.000.07
UC RiversideBW0.000.2250.0043.310.00-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.380.2236.3650.71-0.100.00
WyomingMWC0.000.2280.0073.540.000.10
Loyola MarymountWCC0.260.2225.0023.40-0.13-0.12
Cal PolyBW0.190.1937.5041.94-0.05-0.03
BYUWCC0.190.1970.0068.340.080.07
DetroitHorz0.210.1940.0048.02-0.04-0.01
UC DavisBW0.210.1787.5068.000.160.06
AuburnSEC0.000.1750.0039.790.00-0.03
DePaulBE0.000.1760.0034.160.00-0.05
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.1736.3637.85-0.00-0.04
Colorado St.MWC0.210.17100.0078.210.210.09
Air ForceMWC0.000.1750.0055.890.000.02
Fresno St.MWC0.260.1627.2729.17-0.12-0.07
NevadaMWC0.000.1611.1125.48-0.00-0.08
TexasB120.000.1690.9179.980.000.09
New Mexico St.WAC0.420.1533.3361.74-0.140.03
Chicago St.WAC0.190.140.0011.59-0.19-0.11
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.190.1416.6733.39-0.13-0.05
RiceCUSA0.000.1416.6726.98-0.00-0.06
South DakotaSum0.400.1427.2738.30-0.18-0.03
Utah St.MWC0.210.1454.5548.260.02-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.190.1462.5059.050.050.02
IllinoisB100.210.1475.0065.140.100.04
PortlandWCC0.000.1470.0051.040.000.00
KansasB120.000.1390.0070.680.000.06
Oklahoma St.B120.000.1388.8963.020.000.04
New MexicoMWC0.000.1372.7362.220.000.03
San Jose St.MWC0.000.130.008.00-0.00-0.11
PepperdineWCC0.190.1366.6755.670.060.02
OklahomaB120.210.1370.0062.710.080.03
Texas A&MSEC0.190.1370.0061.320.080.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.660.1242.8641.81-0.09-0.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.1233.3340.63-0.00-0.02
HawaiiBW0.000.1166.6754.470.000.01
SeattleWAC0.190.1133.3343.83-0.06-0.01
UMKCWAC0.400.1120.0040.84-0.24-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.000.1150.0054.170.000.01
PurdueB100.400.1166.6759.370.130.02
PacificWCC0.260.1155.5638.270.03-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.1144.4437.40-0.00-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.210.1160.0076.250.040.06
MarylandB100.000.1190.9168.230.000.04
Boise St.MWC0.000.1177.7872.890.000.05
Portland St.BSky0.190.1150.0042.090.00-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.190.1154.5557.570.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.1066.6754.130.000.01
Idaho St.BSky0.210.0911.1128.88-0.16-0.04
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0957.1470.520.000.04
Old DominionCUSA0.260.0990.0082.310.210.06
DrexelCAA0.000.0822.2235.90-0.00-0.02
LipscombASun0.000.0822.2238.44-0.00-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.0880.0072.200.000.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.260.0862.5058.080.070.01
Michigan St.B100.190.0866.6767.300.060.03
Montana St.BSky0.400.0820.0026.07-0.24-0.04
Southern UtahBSky0.400.0814.2929.82-0.28-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.190.0825.0037.03-0.09-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.080.009.06-0.00-0.07
Oral RobertsSum0.210.0840.0044.08-0.04-0.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0837.5035.74-0.00-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.210.0881.8273.180.130.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.080.0014.00-0.00-0.06
ToledoMAC0.190.0863.6461.520.050.02
PittsburghACC0.570.0870.0051.780.230.00
MississippiSEC0.000.0870.0052.600.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0844.4436.80-0.00-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.080.0027.67-0.00-0.04
Iowa St.B120.190.0890.0065.480.150.02
PrincetonIvy0.210.0833.3341.02-0.07-0.01
SyracuseACC0.210.0860.0058.120.040.01
WisconsinB100.000.0890.9188.840.000.06
KentuckySEC0.000.08100.0096.290.000.07
TCUB120.000.08100.0067.700.000.03
CampbellBSth0.000.0625.0043.93-0.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0642.8649.51-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0636.3645.11-0.00-0.01
High PointBSth0.000.0666.6761.790.000.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0620.0025.85-0.00-0.03
RadfordBSth0.000.0655.5658.650.000.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0614.2944.44-0.00-0.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0625.0044.27-0.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.260.0660.0043.890.05-0.01
Seton HallBE0.490.0690.0067.380.390.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0637.5056.46-0.000.01
LSUSEC0.260.0680.0063.910.160.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.260.0616.6735.27-0.17-0.02
BradleyMVC0.190.0633.3334.04-0.06-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0633.3362.72-0.000.01
BryantNEC0.000.0628.5745.89-0.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.440.0640.0036.66-0.09-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0620.0027.29-0.00-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0633.3349.35-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.400.0675.0066.220.200.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0637.5039.65-0.00-0.01
Green BayHorz0.000.0675.0077.010.000.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0618.1820.86-0.00-0.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0633.3345.04-0.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0672.7367.520.000.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0630.0031.48-0.00-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.069.0917.12-0.00-0.04
North DakotaBSky0.000.0625.0033.40-0.00-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.0642.8636.81-0.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0663.6442.810.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0681.8282.250.000.04
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0644.4450.60-0.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0630.0039.59-0.00-0.01
RutgersB100.000.0654.5532.590.00-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0655.5660.980.000.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0670.0059.660.000.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0642.8626.99-0.00-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0630.0043.15-0.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0655.5665.210.000.02
WagnerNEC0.000.0612.5030.56-0.00-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0687.5085.480.000.04
Wright St.Horz0.000.0660.0057.890.000.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0645.4543.23-0.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.190.0516.6737.21-0.13-0.01
Penn St.B100.000.0591.6755.310.000.01
SMUAmer0.400.0572.7375.710.180.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.400.0520.0045.74-0.24-0.00
XavierBE0.420.0572.7367.590.190.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.210.050.0017.97-0.21-0.03
UABCUSA0.000.0530.0036.69-0.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0518.1837.71-0.00-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0550.0058.070.000.01
DelawareCAA0.000.050.008.56-0.00-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0536.3646.72-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.000.0545.4555.13-0.000.01
DukeACC0.000.05100.0087.090.000.04
VCUA100.000.0572.7375.740.000.03
WoffordSC0.000.0577.7875.550.000.03
TennesseeSEC0.190.0555.5646.290.02-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.190.0520.0052.97-0.110.00
BaylorB120.000.0590.0073.240.000.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0518.1830.76-0.00-0.02
ColgatePat0.000.0520.0042.59-0.00-0.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0585.7172.910.000.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0533.3328.79-0.00-0.02
LehighPat0.000.0544.4454.06-0.000.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0560.0048.980.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.000.0525.0052.35-0.000.00
Texas TechB120.000.0590.0055.360.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0590.9170.080.000.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.260.0345.4545.10-0.02-0.00
FurmanSC0.260.0322.2231.81-0.14-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.260.0310.0018.05-0.21-0.02
LibertyBSth0.000.0325.0035.39-0.00-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.030.008.60-0.00-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.260.0355.5655.710.030.00
Weber St.BSky0.210.0337.5044.33-0.05-0.00
AmericanPat0.230.0363.6463.240.060.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.030.0011.24-0.00-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0354.5564.070.000.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0344.4450.41-0.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0342.8649.02-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.190.0362.5072.070.050.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.210.0380.0076.450.120.01
IndianaB100.000.0381.8263.330.000.01
IowaB100.000.0366.6759.420.000.01
Loyola MDPat0.230.0333.3328.13-0.08-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0322.2236.53-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.230.0338.4644.61-0.05-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0350.0047.880.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.000.0380.0067.830.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0366.6744.720.00-0.00
NJITind0.210.0341.6743.68-0.03-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.230.0354.5559.560.020.01
Notre DameACC0.230.0391.6777.120.190.02
VillanovaBE0.210.03100.0082.970.210.02
Wake ForestACC0.230.0345.4537.60-0.02-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.190.0320.0040.93-0.11-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0350.0051.710.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.190.0355.5652.610.020.00
AkronMAC0.000.0360.0056.150.000.00
AlbanyAE0.000.0340.0055.01-0.000.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.190.0342.8637.83-0.03-0.01
ArmyPat0.000.0377.7868.780.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0366.6742.600.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.190.0370.0064.680.080.01
ElonCAA0.210.0344.4451.07-0.020.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0363.6465.220.000.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0337.5052.01-0.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0084.930.000.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0360.0062.070.000.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0333.3337.22-0.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.190.0360.0043.160.04-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0355.5673.740.000.01
SamfordSC0.190.0333.3330.28-0.06-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0366.6766.010.000.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0327.2735.36-0.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.210.0340.0046.19-0.04-0.00
St. John'sBE0.190.0388.8965.170.150.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0366.6778.020.000.02
Stony BrookAE0.000.0333.3355.24-0.000.00
TempleAmer0.000.0363.6456.430.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0344.4449.14-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.190.0333.3334.30-0.06-0.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0388.8955.860.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0366.6758.210.000.00
VermontAE0.000.0344.4457.69-0.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.190.0344.4455.37-0.020.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.0372.7374.850.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.190.0318.1827.33-0.12-0.01