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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Arizona

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:2.0
Current RPI:2
Expected SOS:19
Current SOS:19
Current Record:30-4
Expected Record:30-4
Current Conf Record:19-2
Expected Conf Record:19-2
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:11-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:12
Expected OOC SOS:24



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
30-42.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Arizona.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Michigan St. (51.0)B10N63-65W100%0.0
11-15Cal St. Bakersfield (75.0)WACH78-66W100%0.0
11-18Sacred Heart (304.0)NECH95-65W100%0.0
11-21Northern Colorado (286.0)BSkyH71-55W100%0.0
11-24Santa Clara (126.0)WCCN61-69W100%0.0
11-25Butler (15.0)BEN65-69L0%0.0
11-30Texas Southern (108.0)SWACH85-63W100%0.0
12-3Gonzaga (8.0)WCCN62-69L0%0.0
12-6UC Irvine (135.0)BWH79-57W100%0.0
12-10Missouri (257.0)SECA60-79W100%0.0
12-14Grand Canyon (131.0)WACH64-54W100%0.0
12-17Texas A&M (92.0)SECN63-67W100%0.0
12-20New Mexico (86.0)MWCH77-46W100%0.0
12-30California (53.0)P12A62-67W100%0.0
1-1Stanford (100.0)P12A52-91W100%0.0
1-5Utah (83.0)P12H66-56W100%0.0
1-7Colorado (99.0)P12H82-73W100%0.0
1-12Arizona St. (125.0)P12H91-75W100%0.0
1-19USC (40.0)P12A66-73W100%0.0
1-21UCLA (16.0)P12A85-96W100%0.0
1-26Washington St. (159.0)P12H79-62W100%0.0
1-29Washington (211.0)P12H77-66W100%0.0
2-2Oregon St. (280.0)P12A54-71W100%0.0
2-4Oregon (9.0)P12A85-58L0%0.0
2-8Stanford (100.0)P12H74-67W100%0.0
2-11California (53.0)P12H62-57W100%0.0
2-16Washington St. (159.0)P12A59-78W100%0.0
2-18Washington (211.0)P12A68-76W100%0.0
2-23USC (40.0)P12H90-77W100%0.0
2-25UCLA (16.0)P12H72-77L0%0.0
3-4Arizona St. (125.0)P12A60-73W100%0.0
3-9Colorado (99.0)P12N92-78W100%0.0
3-10UCLA (16.0)P12N86-75W100%0.0
3-11Oregon (9.0)P12N80-83W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Arizona's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Arizona's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Arizona.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ArizonaP1226.3026.3087.3487.3419.6419.64
UCLAP125.155.1593.3393.334.474.47
USCP123.803.8077.4277.422.082.08
Arizona St.P123.783.7848.3948.39-0.12-0.12
OregonP123.773.7787.1087.102.802.80
CaliforniaP123.733.7367.7467.741.321.32
WashingtonP123.723.7231.0331.03-1.41-1.41
Washington St.P123.723.7242.8642.86-0.53-0.53
ColoradoP123.713.7160.0060.000.740.74
StanfordP123.653.6546.4346.43-0.26-0.26
UtahP122.302.3064.2964.290.660.66
Oregon St.P122.302.3013.3313.33-1.69-1.69
Santa ClaraWCC1.661.6651.6151.610.050.05
Texas A&MSEC1.631.6353.3353.330.110.11
GonzagaWCC1.591.5996.8896.881.491.49
Northern ColoradoBSky1.541.5434.6234.62-0.47-0.47
UC IrvineBW1.541.5459.3859.380.290.29
ButlerBE1.521.5273.3373.330.710.71
Grand CanyonWAC1.521.5271.4371.430.650.65
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC1.521.5270.3770.370.620.62
Sacred HeartNEC1.521.5241.9441.94-0.25-0.25
MissouriSEC1.521.5225.8125.81-0.73-0.73
Michigan St.B101.471.4759.3859.380.280.28
New MexicoMWC1.471.4756.6756.670.200.20
Texas SouthernSWAC1.471.4769.7069.700.580.58
New Mexico St.WAC0.240.2483.3383.330.160.16
UC RiversideBW0.230.2322.2222.22-0.13-0.13
PortlandWCC0.230.2329.0329.03-0.10-0.10
Utah ValleyWAC0.230.2342.8642.86-0.03-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.210.2118.5218.52-0.13-0.13
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.210.2135.7135.71-0.06-0.06
BYUWCC0.210.2166.6766.670.070.07
Cal PolyBW0.210.2131.0331.03-0.08-0.08
Long Beach St.BW0.200.2040.6240.62-0.04-0.04
KentuckySEC0.200.2085.2985.290.140.14
PacificWCC0.200.2031.2531.25-0.08-0.08
San DiegoWCC0.200.2040.0040.00-0.04-0.04
SeattleWAC0.200.2037.0437.04-0.05-0.05
San Diego St.MWC0.180.1856.2556.250.020.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.180.1887.5087.500.140.14
Colorado St.MWC0.170.1765.6265.620.050.05
Fresno St.MWC0.170.1760.0060.000.030.03
XavierBE0.170.1761.7661.760.040.04
MontanaBSky0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.150.1525.8125.81-0.07-0.07
Sacramento St.BSky0.150.1537.9337.93-0.04-0.04
CreightonBE0.140.1472.7372.730.060.06
Seton HallBE0.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
NevadaMWC0.140.1482.3582.350.090.09
VanderbiltSEC0.140.1455.8855.880.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
UNLVMWC0.140.1434.3834.38-0.04-0.04
WyomingMWC0.140.1453.3353.330.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.140.1426.6726.67-0.06-0.06
Alcorn St.SWAC0.130.1351.7251.720.000.00
UC DavisBW0.130.1362.5062.500.030.03
Portland St.BSky0.130.1342.8642.86-0.02-0.02
IdahoBSky0.130.1355.1755.170.010.01
SMUAmer0.120.1288.2488.240.090.09
TCUB120.120.1254.5554.550.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.110.1121.8821.88-0.06-0.06
MichiganB100.110.1168.5768.570.040.04
NebraskaB100.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Ohio St.B100.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.100.1010.3410.34-0.08-0.08
UMKCWAC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Montana St.BSky0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.090.0960.7160.710.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.090.0973.5373.530.040.04
AuburnSEC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
MississippiSEC0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0920.0020.00-0.06-0.06
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
LSUSEC0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Boise St.MWC0.090.0962.0762.070.020.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
South Dakota St.Sum0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
BaylorB120.090.0977.4277.420.050.05
North DakotaBSky0.080.0867.8667.860.030.03
Idaho St.BSky0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.070.0760.7160.710.020.02
HawaiiBW0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.02-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.070.0775.0075.000.030.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.0725.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0740.7440.74-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
DavidsonA100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
TulaneAmer0.070.0719.3519.35-0.04-0.04
ValparaisoHorz0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
MinnesotaB100.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.076.906.90-0.06-0.06
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
BucknellPat0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
DenverSum0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
HarvardIvy0.050.0561.5461.540.010.01
KansasB120.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
Kansas St.B120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Miami FLACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
DukeACC0.050.0577.1477.140.030.03
DePaulBE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
Virginia TechACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
LouisvilleACC0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0536.0036.00-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
IndianaB100.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
NorthwesternB100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
UTEPCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Notre DameACC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0510.0010.00-0.04-0.04
TexasB120.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
WagnerNEC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
WoffordSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
IllinoisB100.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
AkronMAC0.040.0475.7675.760.020.02
ArmyPat0.040.0438.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.040.0446.8846.88-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.040.0425.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.040.0467.7467.740.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.040.0454.8454.840.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.040.0444.8344.83-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.040.0478.5778.570.030.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.040.0446.6746.67-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.040.0430.0030.00-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.040.0458.8258.820.010.01
VirginiaACC0.040.0468.7568.750.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.040.0441.3841.38-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.040.0443.3343.33-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
AlbanyAE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.020.0236.0036.00-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0281.2581.250.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
LamarSlnd0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.020.0260.7160.710.010.01
TulsaAmer0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.020.0284.8584.850.020.02
West VirginiaB120.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.020.0244.4444.44-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
FordhamA100.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
IowaB100.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Iowa St.B120.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
MarylandB100.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0229.4129.41-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
WisconsinB100.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.020.0261.2961.290.000.00
RiceCUSA0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01