live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Bracket Busters - Blog


Through games of Mar 11, 2012.


Arizona

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:79.0
Current RPI:79
Expected SOS:113
Current SOS:113
Current Record:23-11
Expected Record:23-11
Current Conf Record:14-7
Expected Conf Record:14-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:10-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-1
Current OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:78
Expected OOC SOS:84



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-1179.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Arizona.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-7Valparaiso (95.0)HorzH73-64W100%0.0
11-9Duquesne (109.0)A10H67-59W100%0.0
11-13Ball St. (256.0)MACH73-63W100%0.0
11-17St. John's (159.0)BEA72-81W100%0.0
11-18Mississippi St. (75.0)SECN67-57L0%0.0
11-23San Diego St. (26.0)MWCH57-61L0%0.0
11-29New Mexico St. (59.0)WACA76-83W100%0.0
12-3Northern Arizona (337.0)BSkyH53-39W100%0.0
12-7Florida (30.0)SECA78-72L0%0.0
12-10Clemson (151.0)ACCH63-47W100%0.0
12-17Gonzaga (25.0)WCCN71-60L0%0.0
12-20Oakland (139.0)SumH85-73W100%0.0
12-22Bryant (340.0)NECH100-60W100%0.0
12-31Arizona St. (252.0)P12H68-51W100%0.0
1-5UCLA (117.0)P12N65-58L0%0.0
1-8Southern California (270.0)P12A46-57W100%0.0
1-12Oregon St. (135.0)P12H81-73W100%0.0
1-14Oregon (67.0)P12H57-59L0%0.0
1-19Utah (274.0)P12A51-77W100%0.0
1-21Colorado (62.0)P12A64-63L0%0.0
1-26Washington St. (175.0)P12H85-61W100%0.0
1-28Washington (71.0)P12H67-69L0%0.0
2-2California (37.0)P12A74-78W100%0.0
2-4Stanford (97.0)P12A43-56W100%0.0
2-9Colorado (62.0)P12H71-57W100%0.0
2-11Utah (274.0)P12H70-61W100%0.0
2-16Washington St. (175.0)P12A72-76W100%0.0
2-18Washington (71.0)P12A79-70L0%0.0
2-23Southern California (270.0)P12H70-54W100%0.0
2-25UCLA (117.0)P12H65-63W100%0.0
3-4Arizona St. (252.0)P12A87-80L0%0.0
3-8UCLA (117.0)P12N58-66W100%0.0
3-9Oregon St. (135.0)P12N72-61W100%0.0
3-10Colorado (62.0)P12N53-51L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Arizona's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Arizona's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Arizona.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ArizonaP1226.3626.3665.5865.588.228.22
ColoradoP125.145.1465.5265.521.601.60
UCLAP125.145.1458.6258.620.890.89
Oregon St.P123.773.7760.0060.000.750.75
Arizona St.P123.763.7631.0331.03-1.43-1.43
Southern CaliforniaP123.743.7420.0020.00-2.24-2.24
Washington St.P123.733.7350.0050.000.000.00
WashingtonP123.713.7165.5265.521.151.15
UtahP123.683.6817.8617.86-2.37-2.37
CaliforniaP122.382.3875.0075.001.191.19
StanfordP122.332.3367.7467.740.830.83
OregonP122.312.3170.0070.000.930.93
San Diego St.MWC1.561.5676.6776.670.830.83
St. John'sBE1.541.5441.9441.94-0.25-0.25
GonzagaWCC1.521.5280.0080.000.910.91
ValparaisoHorz1.521.5266.6766.670.510.51
Northern ArizonaBSky1.521.5211.5411.54-1.17-1.17
BryantNEC1.491.496.906.90-1.29-1.29
DuquesneA101.491.4951.7251.720.050.05
OaklandSum1.491.4953.3353.330.100.10
FloridaSEC1.491.4968.7568.750.560.56
Mississippi St.SEC1.491.4964.5264.520.430.43
Ball St.MAC1.471.4750.0050.000.000.00
ClemsonACC1.471.4753.3353.330.100.10
New Mexico St.WAC1.471.4775.0075.000.740.74
Fresno St.WAC0.280.2835.4835.48-0.08-0.08
New MexicoMWC0.260.2681.2581.250.160.16
PepperdineWCC0.240.2432.1432.14-0.09-0.09
GeorgiaSEC0.230.2346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.220.2243.3343.33-0.03-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.220.2239.3939.39-0.05-0.05
PortlandWCC0.190.1920.0020.00-0.12-0.12
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.190.1948.1548.15-0.01-0.01
Brigham YoungWCC0.170.1774.1974.190.080.08
UC DavisBW0.170.1713.3313.33-0.12-0.12
Loyola MarymountWCC0.170.1758.6258.620.030.03
Colorado St.MWC0.160.1663.3363.330.040.04
Montana St.BSky0.150.1537.0437.04-0.04-0.04
ButlerHorz0.140.1457.5857.580.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.140.1440.7440.74-0.03-0.03
IdahoWAC0.140.1455.1755.170.010.01
NevadaWAC0.140.1480.0080.000.080.08
South CarolinaSEC0.140.1432.2632.26-0.05-0.05
VanderbiltSEC0.140.1470.5970.590.060.06
Weber St.BSky0.130.1378.5778.570.070.07
Portland St.BSky0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.120.1253.5753.570.010.01
IUPUISum0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Southern UtahSum0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.120.1260.6160.610.020.02
WyomingMWC0.120.1262.0762.070.030.03
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.120.1275.0075.000.060.06
KansasB120.110.1181.8281.820.070.07
TexasB120.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
HawaiiWAC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.110.1165.6265.620.040.04
KentuckySEC0.110.1194.1294.120.100.10
Idaho St.BSky0.100.1027.5927.59-0.05-0.05
Sacramento St.BSky0.100.1030.7730.77-0.04-0.04
MontanaBSky0.100.1079.3179.310.060.06
MassachusettsA100.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
San FranciscoWCC0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
AkronMAC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.100.1021.4321.43-0.06-0.06
St. LouisA100.100.1077.4277.420.050.05
Chicago St.GWC0.100.1010.7110.71-0.07-0.07
South Dakota St.Sum0.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
Wake ForestACC0.090.0941.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.090.0945.4545.45-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.090.0981.8281.820.060.06
San DiegoWCC0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.090.0964.2964.290.030.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.090.0919.2319.23-0.06-0.06
DePaulBE0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.090.0925.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Texas ChristianMWC0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
MarylandACC0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
MichiganB100.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
Southern MississippiCUSA0.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
Texas El PasoCUSA0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.090.0934.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.080.0830.7730.77-0.03-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0713.7913.79-0.05-0.05
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
GramblingSWAC0.070.0714.2914.29-0.05-0.05
Houston BaptistGWC0.070.0725.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.070.0746.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Notre DameBE0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
St. Mary'sWCC0.070.0783.3383.330.050.05
Virginia TechACC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.070.0729.6329.63-0.03-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0781.8281.820.050.05
VirginiaACC0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
PittsburghBE0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
Florida AtlanticSB0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
Seattleind0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
Wright St.Horz0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeSB0.070.0780.0080.000.040.04
PennsylvaniaIvy0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Wichita St.MVC0.070.0783.8783.870.050.05
AuburnSEC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Louisiana St.SEC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
MississippiSEC0.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
SyracuseBE0.070.0793.9493.940.060.06
Texas A&MB120.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Utah St.WAC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
San Jose St.WAC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Louisiana TechWAC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
OhioMAC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0586.2186.210.040.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
NC AshevilleBSth0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
OklahomaB120.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
QuinnipiacNEC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
WagnerNEC0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.056.906.90-0.04-0.04
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
XavierA100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
FordhamA100.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
ProvidenceBE0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Georgia St.CAA0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.050.0528.0028.00-0.02-0.02
TulsaCUSA0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
YaleIvy0.050.0565.3865.380.010.01
BaylorB120.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0564.7164.710.010.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Cal PolyBW0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
CincinnatiBE0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
HofstraCAA0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.050.053.123.12-0.04-0.04
West VirginiaBE0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
RutgersBE0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.040.0420.0020.00-0.03-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.040.0448.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0332.0032.00-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
CharlotteA100.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.020.0210.3410.34-0.02-0.02
George MasonCAA0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
La SalleA100.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
Long IslandNEC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
MonmouthNEC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
TempleA100.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.020.0257.6957.690.000.00
College of CharlestonSC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
CreightonMVC0.020.0284.8584.850.020.02
East Tennessee St.ASun0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
ElonSC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
HoustonCUSA0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
IowaB100.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Longwoodind0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Michigan St.B100.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
The CitadelSC0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Utah ValleyGWC0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
WinthropBSth0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.020.0223.0823.08-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutBE0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0210.7110.71-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleBE0.020.0274.2974.290.010.01
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
North TexasSB0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
PacificBW0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
South FloridaBE0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.020.0216.1316.13-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DenverSB0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
DrakeMVC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
MissouriB120.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
North FloridaASun0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
StetsonASun0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00