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Through games of Nov 18, 2017.


Arizona

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:10.4
Current RPI:181
Expected SOS:43
Current SOS:292
Current Record:3-0
Expected Record:24-5
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:15-3
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:10-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-0
Current OOC Record:3-0
Expected OOC Record:10-1
Expected OOC RPI:8
Expected OOC SOS:52



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
29-01.30.42%
28-11.82.55%
27-22.87.96%
26-34.315.14%
25-46.721.46%
24-59.619.89%
23-613.915.77%
22-719.09.39%
21-825.24.63%
20-932.71.88%
19-1042.60.65%
18-1147.80.23%
17-1267.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Arizona.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Northern Arizona (302.6)BSkyH101-67W100%0.0
11-12UMBC (173.3)AEH103-78W100%0.0
11-16Cal St. Bakersfield (178.6)WACH91-59W100%0.0
11-22North Carolina St. (131.2)ACCN0-083%11.2
11-29Long Beach St. (152.8)BWH0-096%21.7
12-2UNLV (110.1)MWCA0-081%10.4
12-5Texas A&M (19.6)SECN0-059%2.6
12-9Alabama (33.7)SECH0-078%9.3
12-16New Mexico (141.4)MWCA0-087%13.7
12-18North Dakota St. (146.9)SumH0-096%21.6
12-21Connecticut (68.1)AmerH0-088%13.9
12-30Arizona St. (66.7)P12H0-084%11.7
1-4Utah (45.4)P12A0-064%4.4
1-6Colorado (94.8)P12A0-080%10.1
1-11Oregon St. (150.6)P12H0-095%19.3
1-13Oregon (35.0)P12H0-074%7.6
1-17California (169.6)P12A0-088%14.3
1-20Stanford (98.1)P12A0-078%9.3
1-25Colorado (94.8)P12H0-091%16.1
1-27Utah (45.4)P12H0-081%10.4
1-31Washington St. (180.4)P12A0-091%15.7
2-3Washington (146.1)P12A0-086%12.8
2-8UCLA (46.1)P12H0-081%10.7
2-10USC (23.2)P12H0-072%7.1
2-15Arizona St. (66.7)P12A0-068%5.7
2-22Oregon St. (150.6)P12A0-087%13.3
2-24Oregon (35.0)P12A0-055%1.6
3-1Stanford (98.1)P12H0-090%15.3
3-3California (169.6)P12H0-095%20.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Arizona's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Arizona's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Arizona.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ArizonaP1237.5026.30100.0083.0437.5017.38
Arizona St.P124.174.32100.0065.634.171.35
OregonP120.004.19100.0079.220.002.45
ColoradoP120.004.19100.0055.700.000.48
StanfordP120.004.1975.0052.360.000.20
Oregon St.P120.004.1966.6744.790.00-0.44
CaliforniaP120.004.1666.6742.550.00-0.62
UtahP120.004.16100.0070.210.001.68
USCP120.002.68100.0074.820.001.33
UCLAP120.002.66100.0066.500.000.88
WashingtonP120.002.6350.0047.900.00-0.11
Washington St.P120.002.62100.0042.980.00-0.37
Long Beach St.BW0.001.8550.0052.830.000.10
New MexicoMWC0.001.8450.0051.920.000.07
Northern ArizonaBSky16.671.820.0025.34-16.67-0.90
Texas A&MSEC0.001.81100.0072.030.000.80
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC16.671.780.0044.52-16.67-0.20
ConnecticutAmer0.001.78100.0057.940.000.28
UNLVMWC0.001.78100.0066.280.000.58
AlabamaSEC0.001.78100.0062.630.000.45
North Dakota St.Sum0.001.7533.3355.520.000.19
North Carolina St.ACC0.001.72100.0056.010.000.21
UMBCAE16.671.720.0055.02-16.670.17
Fresno St.MWC0.000.2450.0060.060.000.05
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.2433.3351.560.000.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.2466.6742.170.00-0.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.210.0033.850.00-0.07
San Diego St.MWC0.000.2150.0062.630.000.05
SeattleWAC0.000.1933.3350.150.000.00
DenverSum0.000.190.0038.100.00-0.04
Southern UtahBSky0.000.1833.3327.100.00-0.08
Cal PolyBW0.000.1833.3338.050.00-0.04
Utah St.MWC0.000.1850.0050.190.000.00
MissouriSEC0.000.1866.6757.890.000.03
MontanaBSky0.000.1850.0060.130.000.04
Air ForceMWC0.000.18100.0044.740.00-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.000.18100.0066.490.000.06
KansasB120.000.18100.0082.910.000.12
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.1533.3350.220.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.150.0028.170.00-0.07
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.150.0035.130.00-0.04
UC IrvineBW0.000.1533.3353.300.000.01
WyomingMWC0.000.15100.0057.360.000.02
Portland St.BSky0.000.15100.0048.130.00-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.1566.6756.400.000.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.150.0035.610.00-0.04
PacificWCC0.000.150.0033.520.00-0.05
VanderbiltSEC0.000.1566.6749.990.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.000.14100.0080.230.000.09
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1350.0069.320.000.05
IdahoBSky0.000.1350.0060.380.000.03
South DakotaSum0.000.1366.6767.630.000.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.1366.6761.500.000.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.120.0035.760.00-0.04
HawaiiBW0.000.12100.0053.460.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.120.0022.840.00-0.07
ArkansasSEC0.000.12100.0071.180.000.05
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.120.0040.830.00-0.02
Kansas St.B120.000.12100.0062.930.000.03
UC RiversideBW0.000.1233.3331.840.00-0.04
St. John'sBE0.000.12100.0054.590.000.01
UC DavisBW0.000.1266.6757.400.000.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.1233.3338.880.00-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.000.12100.0078.160.000.07
Wichita St.Amer0.000.12100.0082.290.000.08
MississippiSEC0.000.12100.0053.790.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.12100.0051.080.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.000.120.0021.010.00-0.07
AuburnSEC0.000.1166.6750.670.000.00
KentuckySEC0.000.1175.0071.830.000.05
LSUSEC0.000.11100.0046.080.00-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.100.007.670.00-0.09
UMKCWAC0.000.100.0026.150.00-0.05
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.1050.0035.330.00-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.000.1066.6746.830.00-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.100.0047.400.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.100.0023.260.00-0.05
SMUAmer4.170.09100.0076.264.170.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.090.0018.970.00-0.06
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.090.0050.360.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.09100.0052.950.000.01
BYUWCC0.000.0966.6767.320.000.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0950.0034.730.00-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.000.09100.0082.350.000.06
MemphisAmer0.000.0950.0050.670.000.00
UCFAmer0.000.09100.0061.780.000.02
NevadaMWC0.000.09100.0078.910.000.05
Georgia SouthernSB4.170.07100.0064.474.170.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.07100.0075.130.000.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0750.0060.430.000.01
AlbanyAE0.000.07100.0072.510.000.03
BinghamtonAE0.000.0725.0038.080.00-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.000.0766.6756.330.000.01
HartfordAE0.000.0733.3326.430.00-0.03
MaineAE0.000.070.0013.450.00-0.05
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0766.6763.230.000.02
New HampshireAE0.000.070.0048.110.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.000.0750.0042.730.00-0.01
VermontAE0.000.0766.6774.120.000.03
Western IllinoisSum0.000.07100.0038.710.00-0.01
ColgatePat0.000.0650.0050.310.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0018.400.00-0.04
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.06100.0070.960.000.03
ButlerBE0.000.0675.0052.360.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.0633.3350.350.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.060.0022.920.00-0.03
Weber St.BSky0.000.0666.6766.020.000.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.060.0023.910.00-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0650.0052.380.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0650.0068.280.000.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.06100.0066.010.000.02
Saint LouisA100.000.0666.6753.390.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.060.0029.620.00-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.060.0042.340.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0666.6728.760.00-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.000.060.0051.690.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.060.0031.910.00-0.02
West VirginiaB120.000.0666.6771.200.000.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.060.0026.180.00-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.000.0633.3345.540.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.06100.0054.960.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0633.3334.490.00-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.000.060.0017.060.00-0.04
NortheasternCAA0.000.0650.0049.480.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.000.06100.0073.730.000.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.06100.0088.360.000.05
SyracuseACC0.000.06100.0062.240.000.01
TempleAmer0.000.06100.0056.600.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0650.0048.690.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.000.060.0039.740.00-0.01
DrakeMVC0.000.0650.0035.740.00-0.02
IowaB100.000.06100.0058.250.000.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0625.0032.490.00-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.0625.0035.000.00-0.02
XavierBE0.000.06100.0078.990.000.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.060.0035.450.00-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.060.0057.520.000.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0633.3336.410.00-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0034.040.00-0.02
OklahomaB120.000.06100.0060.070.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0675.0061.940.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.06100.0053.240.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0675.0058.930.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.06100.0048.350.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.000.0450.0048.680.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.000.04100.0065.580.000.01
ArmyPat0.000.0350.0053.620.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.030.0021.590.00-0.02
MarylandB100.000.03100.0071.740.000.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.03100.0069.350.000.01
StetsonASun0.000.0333.3333.620.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0350.0066.710.000.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0350.0050.360.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0053.280.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.030.0048.070.00-0.00
IUPUIHorz0.000.030.0032.200.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0350.0077.820.000.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.030.0033.930.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0366.6759.540.000.01
AkronMAC0.000.03100.0060.370.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0375.0045.290.00-0.00
Boston UniversityPat0.000.030.0047.690.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.000.030.0030.230.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0333.3335.310.00-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0333.3350.350.000.00
DukeACC0.000.03100.0083.580.000.02
EvansvilleMVC0.000.03100.0051.900.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.03100.0068.200.000.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0366.6753.670.000.00
LehighPat0.000.0366.6751.580.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0066.990.000.01
Miami FLACC0.000.03100.0074.500.000.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0366.6759.740.000.01
Penn St.B100.000.03100.0060.400.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0333.3334.560.00-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.030.0016.000.00-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.030.0051.010.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.030.0036.070.00-0.01
TCUB120.000.03100.0061.150.000.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0350.0039.640.00-0.01
TulaneAmer0.000.03100.0054.140.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.030.0056.560.000.00
VillanovaBE0.000.03100.0082.960.000.02
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0074.140.000.01
VMISC0.000.0333.3327.450.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.03100.0061.010.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0067.460.000.01
DetroitHorz0.000.030.0029.290.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.03100.0059.240.000.01
MichiganB100.000.03100.0061.710.000.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0366.6763.220.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.03100.0059.540.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.030.0025.140.00-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0022.610.00-0.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0375.0071.560.000.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.03100.0086.180.000.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.030.0031.380.00-0.01
LipscombASun0.000.0333.3349.220.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.03100.0063.590.000.01
MercerSC0.000.0375.0076.250.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.03100.0071.700.000.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.0375.0064.570.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0350.0073.230.000.01
TexasB120.000.03100.0063.830.000.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.03100.0071.560.000.01