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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Arizona

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:28.2
Current RPI:37
Expected SOS:27
Current SOS:77
Current Record:6-1
Expected Record:22-9
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:6-1
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:18
Expected OOC SOS:23



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
29-22.50.04%
28-33.80.18%
27-46.31.06%
26-59.03.25%
25-612.47.03%
24-715.912.61%
23-820.316.93%
22-925.718.93%
21-1032.016.17%
20-1140.112.05%
19-1249.76.90%
18-1361.13.21%
17-1472.21.28%
16-1585.90.31%
15-16101.30.03%
14-17117.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Arizona.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Michigan St. (41.5)B10N63-65W100%0.0
11-15Cal St. Bakersfield (140.8)WACH78-66W100%0.0
11-18Sacred Heart (299.9)NECH95-65W100%0.0
11-21Northern Colorado (274.9)BSkyH71-55W100%0.0
11-24Santa Clara (214.8)WCCN61-69W100%0.0
11-25Butler (14.7)BEN65-69L0%0.0
11-30Texas Southern (107.3)SWACH85-63W100%0.0
12-3Gonzaga (10.2)WCCN0-033%-5.4
12-6UC Irvine (155.6)BWH0-091%16.1
12-10Missouri (167.3)SECA0-069%6.0
12-14Grand Canyon (187.1)WACH0-093%17.8
12-17Texas A&M (42.0)SECN0-049%-0.2
12-20New Mexico (84.5)MWCH0-083%11.5
12-30California (68.2)P12A0-052%0.7
1-1Stanford (54.1)P12A0-053%0.9
1-5Utah (80.8)P12H0-072%7.1
1-7Colorado (84.8)P12H0-072%7.2
1-12Arizona St. (165.8)P12H0-090%15.6
1-19USC (44.4)P12A0-044%-1.9
1-21UCLA (19.0)P12A0-026%-7.9
1-26Washington St. (196.7)P12H0-092%16.7
1-29Washington (105.3)P12H0-077%8.8
2-2Oregon St. (264.9)P12A0-088%14.3
2-4Oregon (50.4)P12A0-045%-1.4
2-8Stanford (54.1)P12H0-072%7.1
2-11California (68.2)P12H0-072%6.9
2-16Washington St. (196.7)P12A0-081%10.5
2-18Washington (105.3)P12A0-059%2.6
2-23USC (44.4)P12H0-064%4.3
2-25UCLA (19.0)P12H0-044%-1.7
3-4Arizona St. (165.8)P12A0-078%9.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Arizona's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Arizona's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Arizona.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ArizonaP1228.6126.2281.4869.2418.0210.09
Arizona St.P120.003.9957.1437.460.00-1.00
WashingtonP120.003.9657.1454.080.000.32
UCLAP120.003.96100.0084.830.002.76
Washington St.P120.003.9550.0038.530.00-0.91
USCP120.003.95100.0077.470.002.17
CaliforniaP120.003.9183.3365.440.001.21
StanfordP120.003.8875.0060.710.000.83
UtahP120.512.4075.0062.360.260.59
ColoradoP120.002.3871.4360.960.000.52
OregonP120.002.3771.4367.150.000.81
Oregon St.P120.002.3728.5724.17-0.00-1.23
Santa ClaraWCC8.251.8142.8637.49-1.18-0.45
Texas A&MSEC0.001.7766.6766.630.000.59
GonzagaWCC0.001.72100.0091.880.001.44
UC IrvineBW0.451.6950.0056.320.000.21
Northern ColoradoBSky8.611.6920.0042.27-5.17-0.26
Grand CanyonWAC0.001.6750.0058.020.000.27
ButlerBE7.741.67100.0074.857.740.83
Sacred HeartNEC8.181.6750.0039.320.00-0.36
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC7.141.6760.0062.061.430.40
MissouriSEC0.001.6750.0046.440.00-0.12
Michigan St.B107.141.6157.1463.651.020.44
New MexicoMWC0.001.6171.4360.110.000.33
Texas SouthernSWAC7.141.6166.6769.262.380.62
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.2571.4368.100.000.09
Cal PolyBW0.000.2433.3335.92-0.00-0.07
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.2360.0058.950.000.04
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.600.220.0033.44-0.60-0.07
UC RiversideBW0.000.220.0033.43-0.00-0.07
BYUWCC0.000.2271.4368.660.000.08
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.2216.6743.29-0.00-0.03
San Diego St.MWC0.000.2175.0074.990.000.11
PortlandWCC0.000.2160.0057.170.000.03
San DiegoWCC0.000.2128.5727.50-0.00-0.10
KentuckySEC0.450.21100.0086.250.450.15
SeattleWAC0.000.2020.0042.63-0.00-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.19100.0089.040.000.15
Long Beach St.BW0.000.190.0039.35-0.00-0.04
PacificWCC0.000.1950.0049.010.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.450.1714.2928.15-0.32-0.07
Colorado St.MWC0.000.1783.3361.490.000.04
MontanaBSky0.000.1714.2947.44-0.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.000.1671.4354.520.000.01
NevadaMWC0.000.1675.0070.470.000.07
CreightonBE0.000.16100.0076.650.000.09
PepperdineWCC0.000.1650.0035.230.00-0.05
Portland St.BSky0.000.1425.0040.37-0.00-0.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.140.0021.30-0.00-0.08
IdahoBSky0.000.1440.0050.88-0.000.00
SMUAmer0.000.1457.1469.300.000.05
Fresno St.MWC0.600.1460.0039.610.12-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.000.1483.3350.740.000.00
XavierBE0.000.14100.0074.800.000.07
UC DavisBW0.450.1457.1448.410.06-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.960.1357.1448.860.14-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.130.0032.39-0.00-0.05
TCUB120.000.13100.0059.480.000.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.450.130.0024.77-0.45-0.07
UNLVMWC0.000.1371.4349.590.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.120.0017.30-0.00-0.08
UMKCWAC0.000.1271.4356.050.000.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.1225.0024.28-0.00-0.06
Montana St.BSky0.000.1250.0062.460.000.03
Weber St.BSky0.000.1220.0054.94-0.000.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.1116.6732.62-0.00-0.04
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.1116.6730.02-0.00-0.04
New OrleansSlnd0.000.1125.0030.93-0.00-0.04
San Jose St.MWC0.000.1140.0037.44-0.00-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.1114.2937.52-0.00-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.000.1166.6756.020.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.1183.3362.840.000.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1133.3345.60-0.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.1125.0034.47-0.00-0.03
WyomingMWC0.000.1160.0048.590.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.110.0024.25-0.00-0.05
LSUSEC0.000.1171.4349.770.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.1116.6736.45-0.00-0.03
MichiganB100.000.1071.4366.530.000.03
NebraskaB100.000.1050.0043.610.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.1085.7172.660.000.05
PurdueB100.000.1071.4374.450.000.05
North DakotaBSky0.600.0933.3353.29-0.200.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0914.2929.81-0.00-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0833.3346.81-0.00-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0850.0053.560.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0883.3355.200.000.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0850.0058.980.000.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0887.5075.320.000.04
GeorgetownBE0.000.0850.0047.560.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.000.0871.4346.010.00-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0871.4343.020.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0842.8634.17-0.00-0.03
St. John'sBE0.450.0828.5733.92-0.19-0.03
YaleIvy0.000.0833.3364.14-0.000.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.080.0013.30-0.00-0.06
BaylorB120.450.08100.0074.460.450.04
BryantNEC0.000.0828.5750.20-0.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0814.2929.15-0.00-0.03
DavidsonA100.000.0883.3368.880.000.03
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0840.0043.86-0.00-0.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0814.2926.81-0.00-0.04
Southern UtahBSky0.000.060.0023.26-0.00-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0018.22-0.00-0.04
BucknellPat1.110.0675.0067.660.550.02
DenverSum0.000.0633.3341.11-0.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0666.6751.460.000.00
HarvardIvy0.000.060.0043.04-0.00-0.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0650.0050.940.000.00
KansasB120.000.0685.7176.170.000.03
Kansas St.B120.000.0685.7155.890.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0666.6754.420.000.00
Miami FLACC0.000.0671.4365.740.000.02
AkronMAC0.000.0583.3369.840.000.02
DukeACC0.450.0587.5078.680.330.03
LouisvilleACC0.000.0585.7175.950.000.03
Penn St.B100.000.0562.5043.960.00-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0550.0042.710.00-0.01
CornellIvy0.000.0528.5730.63-0.00-0.02
DePaulBE0.000.0580.0035.960.00-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0566.6754.380.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0540.0067.95-0.000.02
MarquetteBE0.000.0571.4363.090.000.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0575.0064.960.000.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0533.3348.73-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.050.0034.01-0.00-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.0525.0063.95-0.000.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.0571.4356.280.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.050.0024.19-0.00-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.000.05100.0080.780.000.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0550.0056.430.000.01
TroySB0.000.0533.3332.23-0.00-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0585.7174.430.000.03
VillanovaBE0.000.05100.0083.120.000.04
VirginiaACC0.000.05100.0082.550.000.03
Virginia TechACC0.000.0585.7162.920.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0585.7180.960.000.03
IllinoisB100.000.0557.1442.660.00-0.01
IndianaB100.000.0583.3375.060.000.03
Norfolk St.MEAC1.020.050.0038.35-1.02-0.01
NorthwesternB100.510.0571.4366.220.220.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0514.2934.56-0.00-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0540.0037.65-0.00-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0520.0034.22-0.00-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0528.5734.18-0.00-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.050.0042.55-0.00-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0583.3357.990.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0585.7165.670.000.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0512.5048.98-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0540.0057.49-0.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0525.0039.28-0.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.0525.0056.92-0.000.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0516.6729.36-0.00-0.02
The CitadelSC0.000.0540.0027.05-0.00-0.02
WagnerNEC0.000.0533.3353.85-0.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0023.47-0.00-0.02
North FloridaASun0.600.0314.2931.71-0.43-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.600.0371.4355.750.260.00
OklahomaB120.600.0383.3351.920.400.00
AlbanyAE0.000.0350.0060.380.000.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0383.3380.700.000.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0350.0050.290.000.00
MaristMAAC0.000.0342.8635.68-0.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0333.3333.15-0.00-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0357.1440.590.00-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0325.0053.29-0.000.00
AmericanPat0.000.0316.6735.65-0.00-0.01
ArmyPat0.000.0333.3345.58-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0366.6751.090.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0333.3338.76-0.00-0.01
DaytonA100.000.0366.6772.440.000.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0350.0043.490.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0038.51-0.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0350.0066.170.000.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0371.4368.970.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0350.0051.820.000.00
LamarSlnd0.000.0360.0043.970.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.000.0314.2933.07-0.00-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0320.0032.60-0.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0350.0033.010.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0366.6775.370.000.01
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0075.010.000.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0316.6734.31-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0027.77-0.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.0357.1447.220.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.450.0383.3370.360.300.01
TexasB120.000.0350.0036.240.00-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.03100.0069.770.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0360.0039.200.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0325.0043.26-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0328.5728.46-0.00-0.01
VermontAE0.000.0362.5071.630.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0383.3380.550.000.02
WoffordSC0.000.030.0033.58-0.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0350.0027.250.00-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.510.0316.6736.35-0.34-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.510.0383.3362.080.340.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.450.0350.0071.330.000.01
FordhamA100.510.0357.1443.680.07-0.00
HartfordAE0.000.0312.5022.55-0.00-0.01
HofstraCAA0.510.0357.1440.550.07-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.0342.8647.69-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.000.0342.8644.33-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.510.030.0028.15-0.51-0.01
La SalleA100.510.0360.0051.780.100.00
LafayettePat0.000.0333.3331.87-0.00-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.510.0366.6761.340.170.01
MarylandB100.000.0385.7156.490.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.000.0357.1448.240.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.000.0383.3378.430.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.030.0019.30-0.00-0.02
RiceCUSA0.510.0385.7169.010.360.01
RutgersB100.000.0383.3344.770.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0350.0046.670.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0314.2928.66-0.00-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0325.0040.81-0.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.510.0357.1464.940.070.01
Wichita St.MVC0.450.0371.4386.030.190.02
WisconsinB100.000.0375.0073.840.000.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0342.8637.60-0.00-0.01