Arizona

Conference:	P12
Expected RPI:	16.0
Current RPI:	16
Expected SOS:	25
Current SOS:	25
Current Record:	25-7
Expected Record:	25-7
Current Conf Record:	13-7
Expected Conf Record:	13-7
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	2-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	10-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	3-0
Current OOC Record:	12-0
Expected OOC Record:	12-0
Expected OOC RPI:	2
Expected OOC SOS:	27

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
25-7	16.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Arizona.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Charleston Southern (189.0)	BSth	H	82-73	W	100%
11-15	Texas El Paso (95.0)	CUSA	H	72-51	W	100%
11-19	Long Beach St. (115.0)	BW	H	94-72	W	100%
11-28	Northern Arizona (255.0)	BSky	H	93-50	W	100%
12-1	Texas Tech (214.0)	B12	A	57-85	W	100%
12-4	Southern Mississippi (31.0)	CUSA	H	63-55	W	100%
12-8	Clemson (185.0)	ACC	A	54-66	W	100%
12-15	Florida (7.0)	SEC	H	65-64	W	100%
12-18	Oral Roberts (151.0)	Slnd	H	89-64	W	100%
12-22	East Tennessee St. (275.0)	ASun	N	53-73	W	100%
12-23	Miami FL (4.0)	ACC	N	69-50	W	100%
12-25	San Diego St. (30.0)	MWC	N	67-68	W	100%
1-3	Colorado (38.0)	P12	H	92-83	W	100%
1-5	Utah (161.0)	P12	H	60-57	W	100%
1-10	Oregon (48.0)	P12	A	70-66	L	0%
1-12	Oregon St. (181.0)	P12	A	70-80	W	100%
1-19	Arizona St. (90.0)	P12	A	54-71	W	100%
1-24	UCLA (26.0)	P12	H	73-84	L	0%
1-26	Southern California (118.0)	P12	H	74-50	W	100%
1-31	Washington (88.0)	P12	A	53-57	W	100%
2-2	Washington St. (196.0)	P12	A	65-79	W	100%
2-6	Stanford (77.0)	P12	H	73-66	W	100%
2-10	California (54.0)	P12	H	69-77	L	0%
2-14	Colorado (38.0)	P12	A	71-58	L	0%
2-17	Utah (161.0)	P12	A	64-68	W	100%
2-20	Washington (88.0)	P12	H	70-52	W	100%
2-23	Washington St. (196.0)	P12	H	73-56	W	100%
2-27	Southern California (118.0)	P12	A	89-78	L	0%
3-2	UCLA (26.0)	P12	A	74-69	L	0%
3-9	Arizona St. (90.0)	P12	H	73-58	W	100%
3-14	Colorado (38.0)	P12	N	79-69	W	100%
3-15	UCLA (26.0)	P12	N	66-64	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Arizona's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Arizona's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Arizona.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Arizona	P12	26.31	26.31	78.17	78.17	14.82	14.82
UCLA	P12	5.46	5.46	70.97	70.97	2.29	2.29
Colorado	P12	5.34	5.34	68.97	68.97	2.03	2.03
Arizona St.	P12	4.02	4.02	67.74	67.74	1.42	1.42
Southern California	P12	3.92	3.92	43.33	43.33	-0.52	-0.52
Washington	P12	3.89	3.89	58.06	58.06	0.63	0.63
Utah	P12	3.87	3.87	44.83	44.83	-0.40	-0.40
Washington St.	P12	3.87	3.87	43.33	43.33	-0.52	-0.52
Oregon	P12	2.53	2.53	75.76	75.76	1.30	1.30
Oregon St.	P12	2.39	2.39	45.16	45.16	-0.23	-0.23
California	P12	2.38	2.38	63.33	63.33	0.64	0.64
Stanford	P12	2.38	2.38	58.06	58.06	0.38	0.38
Texas El Paso	CUSA	1.68	1.68	58.06	58.06	0.27	0.27
Long Beach St.	BW	1.68	1.68	58.62	58.62	0.29	0.29
San Diego St.	MWC	1.68	1.68	68.97	68.97	0.64	0.64
Northern Arizona	BSky	1.66	1.66	35.48	35.48	-0.48	-0.48
Clemson	ACC	1.63	1.63	43.33	43.33	-0.22	-0.22
East Tennessee St.	ASun	1.62	1.62	30.00	30.00	-0.65	-0.65
Charleston Southern	BSth	1.61	1.61	59.26	59.26	0.30	0.30
Miami FL	ACC	1.61	1.61	84.38	84.38	1.11	1.11
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	1.61	1.61	74.19	74.19	0.78	0.78
Texas Tech	B12	1.61	1.61	36.67	36.67	-0.43	-0.43
Oral Roberts	Slnd	1.59	1.59	56.67	56.67	0.21	0.21
Florida	SEC	1.56	1.56	81.25	81.25	0.98	0.98
Fresno St.	MWC	0.30	0.30	32.14	32.14	-0.11	-0.11
Kansas	B12	0.22	0.22	85.29	85.29	0.16	0.16
UC Irvine	BW	0.22	0.22	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.22	0.22	41.38	41.38	-0.04	-0.04
Georgia	SEC	0.21	0.21	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.20	0.20	74.19	74.19	0.10	0.10
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.17	0.17	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Idaho St.	BSky	0.17	0.17	17.24	17.24	-0.11	-0.11
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.17	0.17	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Cal Poly	BW	0.17	0.17	55.17	55.17	0.02	0.02
Texas	B12	0.17	0.17	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.15	0.15	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.15	0.15	72.73	72.73	0.07	0.07
Air Force	MWC	0.15	0.15	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.15	0.15	69.70	69.70	0.06	0.06
Florida St.	ACC	0.15	0.15	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.15	0.15	44.44	44.44	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri	SEC	0.14	0.14	69.70	69.70	0.06	0.06
Boise St.	MWC	0.13	0.13	65.52	65.52	0.04	0.04
New Mexico	MWC	0.13	0.13	85.29	85.29	0.09	0.09
Hawaii	BW	0.13	0.13	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.13	0.13	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.12	0.12	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.12	0.12	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Baylor	B12	0.12	0.12	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.12	0.12	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.12	0.12	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Memphis	CUSA	0.12	0.12	88.24	88.24	0.09	0.09
Nevada	MWC	0.12	0.12	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.12	0.12	70.59	70.59	0.05	0.05
Dayton	A10	0.12	0.12	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.12	0.12	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.12	0.12	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Central Florida	CUSA	0.12	0.12	62.07	62.07	0.03	0.03
Hartford	AE	0.12	0.12	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.12	0.12	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Indiana St.	MVC	0.12	0.12	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.10	0.10	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
Pacific	BW	0.10	0.10	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
UC Davis	BW	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.10	0.10	14.29	14.29	-0.07	-0.07
Oklahoma	B12	0.10	0.10	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.10	0.10	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.10	0.10	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Weber St.	BSky	0.10	0.10	80.00	80.00	0.06	0.06
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.10	0.10	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.10	0.10	20.69	20.69	-0.06	-0.06
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.10	0.10	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Houston	CUSA	0.10	0.10	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.10	0.10	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
UAB	CUSA	0.10	0.10	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.10	0.10	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.10	0.10	23.08	23.08	-0.05	-0.05
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	22.58	22.58	-0.05	-0.05
Arkansas	SEC	0.09	0.09	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.09	0.09	58.82	58.82	0.02	0.02
Winthrop	BSth	0.08	0.08	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.08	0.08	42.31	42.31	-0.01	-0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.08	0.08	17.24	17.24	-0.05	-0.05
Liberty	BSth	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Charlotte	A10	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.08	0.08	85.19	85.19	0.05	0.05
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.08	0.08	31.25	31.25	-0.03	-0.03
San Francisco	WCC	0.08	0.08	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.08	0.08	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.08	0.08	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Texas St.	WAC	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
West Virginia	B12	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.07	0.07	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.07	0.07	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Jacksonville	ASun	0.07	0.07	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.07	0.07	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.07	0.07	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Denver	WAC	0.07	0.07	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
Gonzaga	WCC	0.07	0.07	93.75	93.75	0.06	0.06
Grambling	SWAC	0.07	0.07	0.00	0.00	-0.07	-0.07
Pepperdine	WCC	0.07	0.07	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.07	0.07	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
East Carolina	CUSA	0.07	0.07	53.85	53.85	0.01	0.01
Idaho	WAC	0.07	0.07	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.07	0.07	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Montana St.	BSky	0.07	0.07	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Murray St.	OVC	0.07	0.07	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Rice	CUSA	0.07	0.07	13.79	13.79	-0.05	-0.05
Tulane	CUSA	0.07	0.07	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Wofford	SC	0.07	0.07	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Creighton	MVC	0.07	0.07	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
Duke	ACC	0.07	0.07	84.38	84.38	0.05	0.05
Mississippi	SEC	0.07	0.07	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
Marquette	BE	0.07	0.07	74.19	74.19	0.04	0.04
Texas A&M	SEC	0.07	0.07	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Seattle	WAC	0.07	0.07	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.07	0.07	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Georgetown	BE	0.07	0.07	80.65	80.65	0.04	0.04
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.05	0.05	21.43	21.43	-0.03	-0.03
Campbell	BSth	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Syracuse	BE	0.05	0.05	74.29	74.29	0.03	0.03
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.05	0.05	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
San Diego	WCC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	10.00	10.00	-0.04	-0.04
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.05	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
Lipscomb	ASun	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
North Florida	ASun	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	70.37	70.37	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.05	0.05	17.86	17.86	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Christian	B12	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Maryland	ACC	0.05	0.05	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Montana	BSky	0.05	0.05	79.31	79.31	0.03	0.03
North Dakota	BSky	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Portland	WCC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Utah	BSky	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Utah Valley	GWC	0.05	0.05	35.71	35.71	-0.01	-0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
Albany	AE	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Cornell	Ivy	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.05	0.05	29.63	29.63	-0.02	-0.02
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.05	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.05	13.79	13.79	-0.03	-0.03
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
College of Charleston	SC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
High Point	BSth	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Longwood	BSth	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
Radford	BSth	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Harvard	Ivy	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.02	0.02	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.02	0.02	20.69	20.69	-0.01	-0.01
Lafayette	Pat	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.02	0.02	80.65	80.65	0.01	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Niagara	MAAC	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.02	0.02	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.02	0.02	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Towson	CAA	0.02	0.02	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Western Kentucky	SB	0.02	0.02	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.02	0.02	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.02	0.02	60.00	60.00	0.00	0.00
La Salle	A10	0.02	0.02	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.02	0.02	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.02	0.02	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.02	0.02	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.02	0.02	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01