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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Arizona

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:5.0
Current RPI:5
Expected SOS:23
Current SOS:23
Current Record:31-3
Expected Record:31-3
Current Conf Record:19-2
Expected Conf Record:19-2
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:6-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:9-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC RPI:11
Expected OOC SOS:65



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
31-35.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Arizona.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Mount St. Mary's (188.0)NECH78-55W100%0.0
11-16Cal St. Northridge (282.0)BWH86-68W100%0.0
11-19UC Irvine (88.0)BWH71-54W100%0.0
11-24Missouri (218.0)SECN72-53W100%0.0
11-25Kansas St. (100.0)B12N72-68W100%0.0
11-26San Diego St. (26.0)MWCN59-61W100%0.0
12-2Gardner Webb (146.0)BSthH91-65W100%0.0
12-6Gonzaga (8.0)WCCH66-63W100%0.0
12-9Utah Valley (308.0)WACH87-56W100%0.0
12-13Michigan (81.0)B10H80-53W100%0.0
12-16Oakland (155.0)HorzH101-64W100%0.0
12-19UTEP (78.0)CUSAA55-60W100%0.0
12-23UNLV (114.0)MWCA71-67L0%0.0
1-4Arizona St. (102.0)P12H73-49W100%0.0
1-8Oregon (27.0)P12A62-80W100%0.0
1-11Oregon St. (133.0)P12A58-56L0%0.0
1-15Colorado (116.0)P12H68-54W100%0.0
1-17Utah (20.0)P12H69-51W100%0.0
1-22Stanford (59.0)P12A82-89W100%0.0
1-24California (95.0)P12A50-73W100%0.0
1-28Oregon (27.0)P12H90-56W100%0.0
1-30Oregon St. (133.0)P12H57-34W100%0.0
2-7Arizona St. (102.0)P12A81-78L0%0.0
2-13Washington (126.0)P12A62-86W100%0.0
2-15Washington St. (169.0)P12A59-86W100%0.0
2-19USC (207.0)P12H87-57W100%0.0
2-21UCLA (48.0)P12H57-47W100%0.0
2-26Colorado (116.0)P12A54-82W100%0.0
2-28Utah (20.0)P12A57-63W100%0.0
3-5California (95.0)P12H99-60W100%0.0
3-7Stanford (59.0)P12H91-69W100%0.0
3-12California (95.0)P12N73-51W100%0.0
3-13UCLA (48.0)P12N70-64W100%0.0
3-14Oregon (27.0)P12N80-52W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Arizona's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Arizona's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Arizona.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ArizonaP1226.3426.3493.8493.8423.0923.09
OregonP125.205.2080.0080.003.123.12
CaliforniaP125.065.0660.0060.001.011.01
UCLAP123.773.7764.5264.521.091.09
Arizona St.P123.753.7553.3353.330.250.25
UtahP123.743.7479.3179.312.192.19
ColoradoP123.703.7050.0050.000.000.00
StanfordP123.703.7063.3363.330.990.99
Oregon St.P123.653.6553.5753.570.260.26
USCP122.392.3938.7138.71-0.54-0.54
Washington St.P122.392.3943.3343.33-0.32-0.32
WashingtonP122.372.3753.3353.330.160.16
UNLVMWC1.681.6851.6151.610.050.05
San Diego St.MWC1.631.6378.1278.120.920.92
Cal St. NorthridgeBW1.611.6123.3323.33-0.86-0.86
UC IrvineBW1.581.5863.3363.330.420.42
GonzagaWCC1.541.5496.8896.881.441.44
MichiganB101.541.5450.0050.000.000.00
UTEPCUSA1.521.5270.9770.970.640.64
Gardner WebbBSth1.471.4755.1755.170.150.15
Kansas St.B121.471.4748.3948.39-0.05-0.05
MissouriSEC1.471.4726.6726.67-0.69-0.69
Mount St. Mary'sNEC1.471.4751.7251.720.050.05
OaklandHorz1.471.4748.2848.28-0.05-0.05
Utah ValleyWAC1.471.4733.3333.33-0.49-0.49
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.260.2656.6756.670.030.03
UC RiversideBW0.230.2341.3841.38-0.04-0.04
WyomingMWC0.230.2371.8871.880.100.10
Long Beach St.BW0.210.2145.1645.16-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.190.1941.9441.94-0.03-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.180.1840.7440.74-0.03-0.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.180.1823.3323.33-0.10-0.10
BYUWCC0.180.1871.8871.880.080.08
NevadaMWC0.180.1824.1424.14-0.09-0.09
UC DavisBW0.170.1779.3179.310.100.10
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.170.1736.6736.67-0.04-0.04
HawaiiBW0.160.1660.6160.610.030.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.160.1624.1424.14-0.08-0.08
IllinoisB100.160.1659.3859.380.030.03
Colorado St.MWC0.160.1681.2581.250.100.10
TexasB120.160.1660.6160.610.030.03
Fresno St.MWC0.160.1643.3343.33-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.140.1441.1841.18-0.03-0.03
DePaulBE0.140.1437.5037.50-0.04-0.04
OklahomaB120.140.1468.7568.750.050.05
PepperdineWCC0.140.1456.6756.670.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.140.1441.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.120.1217.2417.24-0.08-0.08
New Mexico St.WAC0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
South DakotaSum0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
RiceCUSA0.120.1234.4834.48-0.04-0.04
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.120.1268.9768.970.040.04
Utah St.MWC0.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
PortlandWCC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
KansasB120.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
Texas A&MSEC0.120.1264.5264.520.030.03
San Jose St.MWC0.120.120.000.00-0.12-0.12
GeorgiaSEC0.110.1165.6265.620.040.04
WisconsinB100.110.1191.1891.180.090.09
AlabamaSEC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.110.1148.1548.15-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
UMKCWAC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.100.1062.0762.070.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.090.0963.6463.640.030.03
Montana St.BSky0.090.0920.6920.69-0.06-0.06
MarylandB100.090.0981.8281.820.060.06
TCUB120.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
KentuckySEC0.090.09100.00100.000.090.09
PacificWCC0.090.0932.1432.14-0.03-0.03
ToledoMAC0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
MississippiSEC0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
SyracuseACC0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.090.0916.6716.67-0.06-0.06
PrincetonIvy0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
ArkansasSEC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
CampbellBSth0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
High PointBSth0.070.0767.8667.860.030.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.070.000.00-0.07-0.07
Green BayHorz0.070.0773.3373.330.030.03
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.070.0783.3383.330.050.05
Southern UtahBSky0.070.0732.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0777.4277.420.040.04
Michigan St.B100.070.0767.6567.650.030.03
Iowa St.B120.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
PittsburghACC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.070.0720.6920.69-0.04-0.04
LipscombASun0.070.0739.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0726.9226.92-0.03-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0768.9768.970.030.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
MontanaBSky0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
VCUA100.070.0774.2974.290.030.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
BryantNEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.03-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0559.2659.260.010.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0518.7518.75-0.03-0.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
RadfordBSth0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
WinthropBSth0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
BucknellPat0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
LSUSEC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0562.9662.960.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
NorthwesternB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
RutgersB100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
BradleyMVC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
SMUAmer0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
ColgatePat0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
DenverSum0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.050.0587.8887.880.030.03
FIUCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0574.0774.070.020.02
LehighPat0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
WoffordSC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0564.7164.710.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.040.0468.5768.570.020.02
Weber St.BSky0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.020.0216.6716.67-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.020.0227.2727.27-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Notre DameACC0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
PresbyterianBSth0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
IowaB100.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
MinnesotaB100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
NJITind0.020.0256.0056.000.000.00
SamfordSC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.020.0286.6786.670.020.02
Stony BrookAE0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
TulaneAmer0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
VillanovaBE0.020.0294.1294.120.020.02
AkronMAC0.020.0258.8258.820.000.00
AlbanyAE0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
ArmyPat0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.020.0258.3358.330.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0239.2939.29-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.020.0272.4172.410.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
MemphisAmer0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01