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Through games of Jan 20, 2018.


Arizona

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:15.5
Current RPI:15
Expected SOS:46
Current SOS:33
Current Record:16-4
Expected Record:24-7
Current Conf Record:6-1
Expected Conf Record:14-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:10-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-0
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:29
Expected OOC SOS:50



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-46.94.72%
26-59.117.75%
25-612.329.33%
24-716.525.81%
23-822.315.12%
22-929.85.80%
21-1038.31.33%
20-1146.80.13%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Arizona.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Northern Arizona (316.5)BSkyH101-67W100%0.0
11-12UMBC (159.0)AEH103-78W100%0.0
11-16Cal St. Bakersfield (216.9)WACH91-59W100%0.0
11-22North Carolina St. (96.3)ACCN90-84L0%0.0
11-23SMU (41.4)AmerN66-60L0%0.0
11-24Purdue (6.5)B10N64-89L0%0.0
11-29Long Beach St. (191.0)BWH91-56W100%0.0
12-2UNLV (123.3)MWCA88-91W100%0.0
12-5Texas A&M (29.2)SECN67-64W100%0.0
12-9Alabama (40.0)SECH88-82W100%0.0
12-16New Mexico (157.9)MWCA73-89W100%0.0
12-18North Dakota St. (167.2)SumH83-53W100%0.0
12-21Connecticut (102.7)AmerH73-58W100%0.0
12-30Arizona St. (31.9)P12H84-78W100%0.0
1-4Utah (70.5)P12A82-94W100%0.0
1-6Colorado (85.4)P12A80-77L0%0.0
1-11Oregon St. (145.3)P12H62-53W100%0.0
1-13Oregon (67.0)P12H90-83W100%0.0
1-17California (190.5)P12A58-79W100%0.0
1-20Stanford (89.4)P12A71-73W100%0.0
1-25Colorado (85.4)P12H0-089%13.9
1-27Utah (70.5)P12H0-084%10.8
1-31Washington St. (167.1)P12A0-084%11.2
2-3Washington (77.2)P12A0-075%7.6
2-8UCLA (63.0)P12H0-077%8.2
2-10USC (34.7)P12H0-073%6.7
2-15Arizona St. (31.9)P12A0-048%-0.5
2-22Oregon St. (145.3)P12A0-077%8.1
2-24Oregon (67.0)P12A0-057%1.9
3-1Stanford (89.4)P12H0-088%13.1
3-3California (190.5)P12H0-097%20.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Arizona's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Arizona's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Arizona.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ArizonaP1226.3226.2179.5578.8515.5515.12
Arizona St.P122.964.0083.3379.721.972.38
Oregon St.P122.893.9261.1153.600.640.28
ColoradoP122.763.8957.8953.620.440.28
StanfordP122.693.8957.8953.430.430.27
OregonP122.833.8968.4266.741.041.30
UtahP122.763.8964.7162.710.810.99
CaliforniaP122.633.8638.8933.23-0.58-1.30
USCP120.592.5071.4369.660.250.98
UCLAP120.462.4465.0063.380.140.65
WashingtonP120.262.4270.0062.660.100.61
Washington St.P120.192.4150.0043.100.00-0.33
Long Beach St.BW2.691.7742.1144.83-0.43-0.18
UNLVMWC2.631.7277.7867.451.460.60
New MexicoMWC2.631.7247.3750.24-0.140.01
Northern ArizonaBSky2.641.7011.7615.85-2.02-1.16
SMUAmer2.571.6968.4269.650.950.67
ConnecticutAmer2.561.6955.5648.970.28-0.03
Texas A&MSEC2.571.6972.2266.111.140.54
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC2.571.6731.2534.54-0.96-0.52
AlabamaSEC2.571.6672.2260.951.140.36
North Dakota St.Sum2.501.6447.0652.24-0.150.07
UMBCAE2.561.6462.5060.520.640.34
North Carolina St.ACC2.501.6166.6756.360.830.21
PurdueB102.501.6190.0087.992.001.23
Fresno St.MWC0.260.2266.6763.420.090.06
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.270.2238.8946.03-0.06-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.190.2158.8262.830.030.05
Colorado St.MWC0.250.2145.0041.34-0.03-0.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.330.1921.0539.47-0.19-0.04
Portland St.BSky0.190.1958.8263.210.030.05
Cal PolyBW0.190.1923.5328.21-0.10-0.08
Boise St.MWC0.250.1878.9576.970.150.10
SeattleWAC0.070.1757.8954.500.010.02
DenverSum0.190.1733.3336.47-0.06-0.04
Southern UtahBSky0.260.1637.5033.78-0.07-0.05
UC IrvineBW0.200.1630.0039.93-0.08-0.03
Utah St.MWC0.140.1645.0045.50-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.200.1666.6763.200.070.04
Air ForceMWC0.190.1637.5031.76-0.05-0.06
KansasB120.130.1684.2179.740.090.09
Wichita St.Amer0.190.1678.9577.360.110.09
IdahoBSky0.220.1464.7166.850.060.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.200.1483.3384.230.130.10
Idaho St.BSky0.140.1443.7540.93-0.02-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.140.1470.5969.610.060.05
ArkansasSEC0.140.1468.4264.200.050.04
MontanaBSky0.130.1370.5973.140.050.06
Cal St. FullertonBW0.130.1356.2556.810.020.02
WyomingMWC0.130.1361.1156.830.030.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.130.1345.0049.27-0.01-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.190.1350.0048.740.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.190.1345.0044.46-0.02-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.130.1336.8435.55-0.03-0.04
CincinnatiAmer0.060.1389.4785.520.050.09
FloridaSEC0.130.1373.6871.550.060.06
UCFAmer0.190.1368.4260.880.070.03
Chicago St.WAC0.210.120.003.12-0.21-0.11
South DakotaSum0.140.1173.6872.360.070.05
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.200.1145.0045.02-0.02-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.130.1172.2272.970.060.05
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.1125.0028.02-0.03-0.05
HawaiiBW0.130.1168.7563.960.050.03
Kansas St.B120.140.1173.6862.720.060.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.140.1172.2258.940.060.02
MarylandB100.200.1170.0065.320.080.03
MississippiSEC0.140.1152.6345.860.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.130.1158.8257.140.020.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.130.1117.6519.33-0.08-0.07
St. John'sBE0.130.1147.3742.18-0.01-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.130.1117.6523.89-0.08-0.06
XavierBE0.130.1185.7180.080.090.06
Coppin St.MEAC0.200.119.5217.94-0.16-0.07
UC DavisBW0.060.1158.8262.450.010.03
South FloridaAmer0.130.1135.0026.14-0.04-0.05
San Jose St.MWC0.130.1111.7612.81-0.10-0.08
KentuckySEC0.070.1073.6867.950.030.04
AuburnSEC0.130.1089.4777.030.100.06
East CarolinaAmer0.070.1042.1132.48-0.01-0.04
LSUSEC0.130.1061.1153.160.030.01
MemphisAmer0.130.1065.0058.490.040.02
North CarolinaACC0.060.1080.0075.050.040.05
OklahomaB120.060.1077.7867.900.030.04
TennesseeSEC0.190.1072.2268.920.080.04
UMKCWAC0.140.0921.0524.71-0.08-0.04
North DakotaBSky0.140.0929.4134.76-0.06-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.140.0930.0032.53-0.05-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.130.0833.3334.11-0.04-0.03
Stony BrookAE0.070.0838.8946.68-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.130.0866.6763.070.040.02
BYUWCC0.140.0880.9576.230.080.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.140.080.0010.65-0.14-0.06
Northwestern St.Slnd0.130.087.1414.82-0.11-0.06
San DiegoWCC0.130.0863.1657.540.030.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0890.4888.940.050.06
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.130.0830.0036.48-0.05-0.02
IowaB100.120.0847.6244.03-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.070.0827.7829.11-0.03-0.03
MercerSC0.130.0844.4454.89-0.010.01
MichiganB100.060.0875.0070.270.030.03
Michigan St.B100.130.0885.0083.180.090.05
NevadaMWC0.060.0885.7182.070.040.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0821.0544.26-0.04-0.01
WisconsinB100.060.0850.0046.260.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0878.9572.990.000.04
MinnesotaB100.130.0863.6457.640.030.01
Northern IowaMVC0.190.0847.0652.51-0.010.00
Ohio St.B100.060.0880.9576.520.040.04
Penn St.B100.130.0861.9055.770.030.01
TempleAmer0.060.0852.6351.730.000.00
TulaneAmer0.190.0863.1657.900.050.01
TulsaAmer0.070.0855.0053.290.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.150.0666.6765.360.050.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0670.0071.230.000.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.070.0666.6766.010.020.02
Fort WayneSum0.070.0652.6351.700.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.140.0670.0068.420.060.02
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0642.8635.250.00-0.02
AlbanyAE0.000.0670.0068.050.000.02
BinghamtonAE0.000.0644.4442.740.00-0.01
MaineAE0.070.0610.5314.86-0.06-0.04
New HampshireAE0.070.0629.4138.15-0.03-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.070.0629.4130.67-0.03-0.02
VermontAE0.070.0673.6877.120.030.03
HartfordAE0.070.0652.6346.880.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.140.0610.0019.62-0.11-0.03
Montana St.BSky0.070.0650.0047.670.00-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.070.0656.2557.400.010.01
ColgatePat0.140.0550.0051.040.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.140.0566.6773.240.050.03
JacksonvilleASun0.140.0533.3333.80-0.05-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.070.0533.3332.96-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.060.0555.0049.070.01-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0531.5832.72-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.0570.0068.220.030.02
Kent St.MAC0.070.0544.4444.86-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.070.0517.6517.23-0.04-0.04
MaristMAAC0.070.0521.0521.99-0.04-0.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.060.0531.5830.00-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.070.0547.3746.91-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.070.0560.0059.690.010.01
WoffordSC0.070.0568.7563.620.020.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0550.0052.440.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0552.6343.120.00-0.01
IUPUIHorz0.060.0527.7829.84-0.03-0.02
NebraskaB100.120.0566.6759.780.040.01
PepperdineWCC0.130.0510.5318.34-0.10-0.03
RiceCUSA0.130.0511.1117.69-0.10-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0527.7831.67-0.03-0.02
TCUB120.130.0573.6865.590.060.02
West VirginiaB120.130.0584.2178.170.090.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0516.6724.29-0.04-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.060.0561.1158.750.010.01
ClemsonACC0.130.0584.2173.210.090.02
DePaulBE0.060.0542.1134.32-0.01-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0566.6755.930.020.01
IllinoisB100.070.0547.3744.27-0.00-0.01
LipscombASun0.130.0552.9459.360.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.060.0577.7869.360.030.02
NortheasternCAA0.060.0563.1663.180.020.01
Notre DameACC0.070.0563.1661.050.020.01
RutgersB100.060.0557.8947.140.01-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0561.1151.900.010.00
SyracuseACC0.070.0568.4261.270.020.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0568.4257.780.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.070.0544.4441.15-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.120.0568.4270.810.040.02
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0362.5058.700.020.01
DelawareCAA0.070.0347.3743.04-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.070.0350.0054.850.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0380.0078.860.040.02
StetsonASun0.070.0333.3336.92-0.02-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0322.2227.33-0.04-0.01
ArmyPat0.070.0361.1160.530.020.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.030.009.15-0.07-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0350.0051.480.000.00
The CitadelSC0.070.0318.7518.40-0.05-0.02
TowsonCAA0.070.0363.1666.000.020.01
HamptonMEAC0.070.0320.0041.76-0.04-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0316.6724.460.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.000.0375.0070.690.000.01
DetroitHorz0.000.0321.0525.980.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0346.6746.98-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0352.6347.360.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0350.0051.650.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0357.8953.190.010.00
AkronMAC0.000.0347.0644.910.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.0310.5316.75-0.05-0.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0371.4374.650.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0368.4255.060.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.070.0350.0053.160.000.00
BryantNEC0.070.039.5217.08-0.05-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.070.0372.2274.900.030.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0320.0028.72-0.04-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.070.0320.0032.26-0.04-0.01
DukeACC0.070.0389.4785.190.050.02
FairfieldMAAC0.060.0338.8944.14-0.01-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.0373.6869.610.000.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.0380.9583.260.000.02
IndianaB100.000.0357.8950.680.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0316.6724.910.00-0.01
LehighPat0.000.0338.8944.750.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0326.6729.04-0.03-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0352.6355.290.000.00
MarquetteBE0.060.0368.4260.530.020.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0376.4769.020.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0372.2274.700.000.01
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0327.7840.88-0.03-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0337.5045.22-0.02-0.00
NorthwesternB100.060.0355.0050.370.010.00
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0368.4254.090.020.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0340.0030.870.00-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.070.0329.4127.74-0.03-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0352.9460.270.000.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.0370.0060.460.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.070.0383.3381.410.040.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0357.1460.400.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0327.7834.50-0.03-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0336.8432.79-0.02-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0335.2940.48-0.02-0.00
TexasB120.070.0363.1657.620.020.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.070.0368.7567.640.020.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0360.0062.030.010.01
ValparaisoMVC0.060.0350.0051.360.000.00
VillanovaBE0.070.0394.7490.310.060.02
VirginiaACC0.070.0394.4485.440.060.02
VMISC0.070.0325.0024.17-0.03-0.01