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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Arizona

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:2.0
Current RPI:2
Expected SOS:4
Current SOS:4
Current Record:30-4
Expected Record:30-4
Current Conf Record:17-4
Expected Conf Record:17-4
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:13-0
Expected OOC Record:13-0
Expected OOC RPI:3
Expected OOC SOS:35



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
30-42.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Arizona.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Cal Poly (208.0)BWH73-62W100%0.0
11-11Long Beach St. (166.0)BWH91-57W100%0.0
11-14San Diego St. (15.0)MWCA60-69W100%0.0
11-18Fairleigh Dickinson (269.0)NECH100-50W100%0.0
11-19Rhode Island (155.0)A10H87-59W100%0.0
11-27Drexel (132.0)CAAN66-62W100%0.0
11-29Duke (9.0)ACCN72-66W100%0.0
12-3Texas Tech (121.0)B12H79-58W100%0.0
12-7UNLV (108.0)MWCH63-58W100%0.0
12-11New Mexico St. (72.0)WACH74-48W100%0.0
12-14Michigan (11.0)B10A70-72W100%0.0
12-19Southern (171.0)SWACH69-43W100%0.0
12-23Northern Arizona (247.0)BSkyH77-44W100%0.0
1-2Washington St. (224.0)P12H60-25W100%0.0
1-4Washington (104.0)P12H71-62W100%0.0
1-9UCLA (14.0)P12A75-79W100%0.0
1-12USC (176.0)P12A53-73W100%0.0
1-16Arizona St. (44.0)P12H91-68W100%0.0
1-23Colorado (34.0)P12H69-57W100%0.0
1-26Utah (80.0)P12H65-56W100%0.0
1-29Stanford (41.0)P12A57-60W100%0.0
2-1California (63.0)P12A60-58L0%0.0
2-6Oregon (28.0)P12H67-65W100%0.0
2-9Oregon St. (100.0)P12H76-54W100%0.0
2-14Arizona St. (44.0)P12A69-66L0%0.0
2-19Utah (80.0)P12A63-67W100%0.0
2-22Colorado (34.0)P12A61-88W100%0.0
2-26California (63.0)P12H87-59W100%0.0
3-2Stanford (41.0)P12H79-66W100%0.0
3-5Oregon St. (100.0)P12A69-74W100%0.0
3-8Oregon (28.0)P12A64-57L0%0.0
3-13Utah (80.0)P12N71-39W100%0.0
3-14Colorado (34.0)P12N63-43W100%0.0
3-15UCLA (14.0)P12N71-75L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Arizona's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Arizona's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Arizona.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ArizonaP1226.3426.3490.2890.2821.2221.22
ColoradoP125.135.1374.1974.192.482.48
UtahP125.075.0770.3770.372.072.07
UCLAP123.863.8678.1278.122.172.17
Arizona St.P123.793.7966.6766.671.261.26
StanfordP123.753.7567.7467.741.331.33
OregonP123.703.7073.3373.331.731.73
CaliforniaP123.653.6560.0060.000.730.73
Oregon St.P123.633.6355.1755.170.380.38
USCP122.412.4133.3333.33-0.80-0.80
WashingtonP122.402.4054.8454.840.230.23
Washington St.P122.322.3231.0331.03-0.88-0.88
Cal PolyBW1.611.6137.9337.93-0.39-0.39
Long Beach St.BW1.591.5944.8344.83-0.16-0.16
UNLVMWC1.591.5962.5062.500.400.40
MichiganB101.561.5678.1278.120.880.88
San Diego St.MWC1.561.5690.0090.001.251.25
Texas TechB121.541.5445.1645.16-0.15-0.15
DukeACC1.541.5478.7978.790.880.88
Northern ArizonaBSky1.521.5246.6746.67-0.10-0.10
DrexelCAA1.511.5155.1755.170.160.16
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC1.471.4732.1432.14-0.53-0.53
New Mexico St.WAC1.471.4775.7675.760.760.76
Rhode IslandA101.471.4743.3343.33-0.20-0.20
SouthernSWAC1.471.4757.1457.140.210.21
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.300.3067.8667.860.110.11
UC IrvineBW0.280.2865.6265.620.090.09
Fresno St.MWC0.260.2648.3948.39-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.220.2224.1424.14-0.11-0.11
NevadaMWC0.210.2146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.190.1962.0762.070.050.05
Idaho St.BSky0.190.1933.3333.33-0.06-0.06
Colorado St.MWC0.180.1846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.170.1745.4545.45-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.170.1735.4835.48-0.05-0.05
Boise St.MWC0.170.1759.3859.380.030.03
BYUWCC0.160.1666.6766.670.050.05
New MexicoMWC0.160.1681.8281.820.100.10
Air ForceMWC0.160.1635.7135.71-0.04-0.04
KansasB120.160.1672.7372.730.070.07
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.140.1430.3030.30-0.06-0.06
Grand CanyonWAC0.140.1446.1546.15-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.140.1478.7978.790.080.08
Utah St.MWC0.140.1454.8454.840.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.140.143.573.57-0.13-0.13
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
BaylorB120.140.1466.6766.670.050.05
Oklahoma St.B120.130.1363.6463.640.040.04
WyomingMWC0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.120.1227.5927.59-0.05-0.05
College of CharlestonCAA0.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.120.1256.2556.250.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
DenverSum0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.120.1235.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.120.1235.4835.48-0.03-0.03
PittsburghACC0.110.1173.5373.530.050.05
IllinoisB100.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.03-0.03
ElonSC0.110.1155.1755.170.010.01
NorthwesternB100.110.1142.4242.42-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.100.1030.3030.30-0.04-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.100.1020.6920.69-0.06-0.06
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.100.1010.7110.71-0.08-0.08
Grambling St.SWAC0.100.1014.8114.81-0.07-0.07
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.1072.7372.730.040.04
TowsonCAA0.100.1067.7467.740.030.03
MarquetteBE0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
Kansas St.B120.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
George MasonA100.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
DePaulBE0.090.0936.3636.36-0.03-0.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.090.0955.1755.170.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.090.0960.7160.710.020.02
IdahoWAC0.090.0945.4545.45-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
SyracuseACC0.090.0984.3884.380.060.06
Utah ValleyWAC0.090.0962.0762.070.020.02
SeattleWAC0.090.0939.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.0920.6920.69-0.05-0.05
St. Francis PANEC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
DelawareCAA0.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
NortheasternCAA0.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.070.0710.7110.71-0.06-0.06
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.070.0720.6920.69-0.04-0.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.070.0716.1316.13-0.05-0.05
Loyola MarymountWCC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
PacificWCC0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
TCUB120.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.070.0753.5753.570.010.01
IowaB100.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Portland St.BSky0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.070.0717.2417.24-0.05-0.05
PurdueB100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
MarylandACC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Iowa St.B120.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
MissouriSEC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
UTEPCUSA0.070.0767.7467.740.020.02
Miami FLACC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
HoustonAmer0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
IndianaB100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0757.1457.140.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
Michigan St.B100.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
HarvardIvy0.060.0686.2186.210.050.05
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
BryantNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
WagnerNEC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
RutgersAmer0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
William & MaryCAA0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
HartfordAE0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
TulaneCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
AkronMAC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
FordhamA100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
UTSACUSA0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
DavidsonSC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0513.7913.79-0.03-0.03
UMass LowellAE0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
TexasB120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
UMBCAE0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
DrakeMVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0514.8114.81-0.03-0.03
BucknellPat0.040.0453.3353.330.000.00
MinnesotaB100.040.0459.3859.380.010.01
NebraskaB100.040.0461.2961.290.010.01
Ohio St.B100.040.0473.5373.530.020.02
WisconsinB100.040.0478.7978.790.030.03
Florida St.ACC0.040.0459.3859.380.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.040.0451.7251.720.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.040.0436.6736.67-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.040.0462.5062.500.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.040.0448.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.040.0458.0658.060.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.040.0471.8871.880.020.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.040.0425.8125.81-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.040.0434.4834.48-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.040.0482.3582.350.030.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0394.1294.120.020.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
North FloridaASun0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.030.0370.3770.370.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.020.0264.2964.290.010.01
ButlerBE0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.020.0251.8551.850.000.00
DetroitHorz0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
HowardMEAC0.020.0219.3519.35-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MaineAE0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
New HampshireAE0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
RichmondA100.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Saint LouisA100.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
VillanovaBE0.020.0287.5087.500.020.02
XavierBE0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.020.0224.0024.00-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0248.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.020.0216.6716.67-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Notre DameACC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01