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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Arizona

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:13.0
Current RPI:13
Expected SOS:51
Current SOS:51
Current Record:27-7
Expected Record:27-7
Current Conf Record:17-4
Expected Conf Record:17-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:9-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:37
Expected OOC SOS:74



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-713.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Arizona.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Northern Arizona (310.0)BSkyH101-67W100%0.0
11-12UMBC (111.0)AEH103-78W100%0.0
11-16Cal St. Bakersfield (220.0)WACH91-59W100%0.0
11-22North Carolina St. (64.0)ACCN90-84L0%0.0
11-23SMU (113.0)AmerN66-60L0%0.0
11-24Purdue (9.0)B10N64-89L0%0.0
11-29Long Beach St. (191.0)BWH91-56W100%0.0
12-2UNLV (134.0)MWCA88-91W100%0.0
12-5Texas A&M (29.0)SECN67-64W100%0.0
12-9Alabama (42.0)SECH88-82W100%0.0
12-16New Mexico (118.0)MWCA73-89W100%0.0
12-18North Dakota St. (210.0)SumH83-53W100%0.0
12-21Connecticut (123.0)AmerH73-58W100%0.0
12-30Arizona St. (66.0)P12H84-78W100%0.0
1-4Utah (59.0)P12A82-94W100%0.0
1-6Colorado (82.0)P12A80-77L0%0.0
1-11Oregon St. (137.0)P12H62-53W100%0.0
1-13Oregon (72.0)P12H90-83W100%0.0
1-17California (216.0)P12A58-79W100%0.0
1-20Stanford (86.0)P12A71-73W100%0.0
1-25Colorado (82.0)P12H80-71W100%0.0
1-27Utah (59.0)P12H74-73W100%0.0
1-31Washington St. (179.0)P12A72-100W100%0.0
2-3Washington (71.0)P12A78-75L0%0.0
2-8UCLA (36.0)P12H74-82L0%0.0
2-10USC (34.0)P12H81-67W100%0.0
2-15Arizona St. (66.0)P12A70-77W100%0.0
2-22Oregon St. (137.0)P12A65-75W100%0.0
2-24Oregon (72.0)P12A98-93L0%0.0
3-1Stanford (86.0)P12H75-67W100%0.0
3-3California (216.0)P12H66-54W100%0.0
3-8Colorado (82.0)P12N83-67W100%0.0
3-9UCLA (36.0)P12N78-67W100%0.0
3-10USC (34.0)P12N75-61W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Arizona's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Arizona's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Arizona.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ArizonaP1226.2926.2979.6179.6115.5715.57
ColoradoP125.135.1355.1755.170.530.53
USCP123.893.8971.8871.881.701.70
UCLAP123.793.7966.6766.671.261.26
Arizona St.P123.773.7768.9768.971.431.43
OregonP123.753.7565.6265.621.171.17
StanfordP123.733.7358.0658.060.600.60
Oregon St.P123.723.7253.3353.330.250.25
UtahP123.693.6967.8667.861.321.32
CaliforniaP123.653.6527.5927.59-1.64-1.64
WashingtonP122.302.3061.2961.290.520.52
Washington St.P122.292.2940.0040.00-0.46-0.46
Long Beach St.BW1.611.6143.3343.33-0.21-0.21
New MexicoMWC1.581.5856.2556.250.200.20
SMUAmer1.581.5850.0050.000.000.00
Texas A&MSEC1.581.5864.5264.520.460.46
UNLVMWC1.561.5662.5062.500.390.39
ConnecticutAmer1.561.5645.1645.16-0.15-0.15
Northern ArizonaBSky1.551.5513.7913.79-1.12-1.12
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC1.541.5434.6234.62-0.47-0.47
AlabamaSEC1.541.5457.5857.580.230.23
North Dakota St.Sum1.511.5142.8642.86-0.22-0.22
UMBCAE1.491.4970.0070.000.600.60
North Carolina St.ACC1.471.4764.5264.520.430.43
PurdueB101.471.4781.8281.820.940.94
San Diego St.MWC0.210.2167.7467.740.070.07
Colorado St.MWC0.200.2032.2632.26-0.07-0.07
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.190.1956.2556.250.020.02
Fresno St.MWC0.180.1863.3363.330.050.05
Air ForceMWC0.180.1834.4834.48-0.06-0.06
UC IrvineBW0.170.1748.4848.48-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.160.1646.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.160.1662.0762.070.040.04
Cal PolyBW0.160.1624.1424.14-0.08-0.08
Utah St.MWC0.160.1648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.160.1645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.160.1656.6756.670.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.160.1688.2488.240.120.12
Boise St.MWC0.150.1573.3373.330.070.07
SeattleWAC0.150.1556.6756.670.020.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.140.1480.0080.000.090.09
New Mexico St.WAC0.140.1483.3383.330.090.09
Southern UtahBSky0.140.1436.6736.67-0.04-0.04
MissouriSEC0.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.140.1470.0070.000.060.06
KansasB120.140.1479.4179.410.080.08
Wichita St.Amer0.140.1478.1278.120.080.08
Central ArkansasSlnd0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.140.1437.5037.50-0.03-0.03
KentuckySEC0.140.1470.5970.590.060.06
WyomingMWC0.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
IdahoBSky0.130.1368.9768.970.050.05
South DakotaSum0.120.1273.3373.330.060.06
Idaho St.BSky0.120.1242.8642.86-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.120.1267.6567.650.040.04
MontanaBSky0.120.1277.4277.420.060.06
XavierBE0.120.1284.8584.850.080.08
San FranciscoWCC0.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
PacificWCC0.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
AuburnSEC0.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
MichiganB100.110.1179.4179.410.070.07
FloridaSEC0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
OklahomaB120.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.100.103.333.33-0.09-0.09
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.100.1053.5753.570.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Kansas St.B120.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.090.0914.2914.29-0.07-0.07
UC RiversideBW0.090.0924.1424.14-0.05-0.05
UC DavisBW0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
MississippiSEC0.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
St. John'sBE0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.090.0931.2531.25-0.03-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
IowaB100.090.0942.4242.42-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.090.0971.4371.430.040.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.0915.6215.62-0.06-0.06
MemphisAmer0.090.0961.7661.760.020.02
MarylandB100.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
LSUSEC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
Penn St.B100.090.0961.7661.760.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.090.0975.7675.760.050.05
WisconsinB100.090.0945.4545.45-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.090.0979.4179.410.050.05
San Jose St.MWC0.090.0910.3410.34-0.07-0.07
Utah ValleyWAC0.080.0865.5265.520.030.03
UMKCWAC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Fort WayneSum0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.0712.5012.50-0.05-0.05
Northwestern St.Slnd0.070.078.008.00-0.06-0.06
HartfordAE0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0784.8584.850.050.05
ButlerBE0.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
BYUWCC0.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
Stony BrookAE0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.070.0736.3636.36-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Michigan St.B100.070.0787.8887.880.050.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
TulsaAmer0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0744.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.070.0775.0075.000.030.03
MinnesotaB100.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
RutgersB100.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0524.2424.24-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.050.0513.3313.33-0.03-0.03
MaineAE0.050.0513.3313.33-0.03-0.03
New HampshireAE0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
WoffordSC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
ColgatePat0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.03-0.03
West VirginiaB120.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
CreightonBE0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
Notre DameACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
SyracuseACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
IUPUIHorz0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.040.0454.5554.550.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.040.0460.6160.610.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.040.0468.7568.750.020.02
RiceCUSA0.040.0417.2417.24-0.03-0.03
TCUB120.040.0465.6265.620.010.01
IllinoisB100.040.0441.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.040.0469.7069.700.020.02
AkronMAC0.040.0441.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.040.0425.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.040.0458.0658.060.010.01
DePaulBE0.040.0435.4835.48-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.040.0451.7251.720.000.00
LipscombASun0.040.0468.9768.970.020.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.040.0476.6776.670.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.040.0442.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
DelawareCAA0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
StetsonASun0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.020.0216.6716.67-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.026.676.67-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.020.0260.7160.710.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
The CitadelSC0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
BelmontOVC0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.020.029.689.68-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0226.9226.92-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
PittsburghACC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
VillanovaBE0.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
VirginiaACC0.020.0293.9493.940.020.02
VMISC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.020.029.689.68-0.02-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
IndianaB100.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
NorthwesternB100.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
ValparaisoMVC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00