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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Arizona

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:26.0
Current RPI:26
Expected SOS:70
Current SOS:70
Current Record:25-8
Expected Record:25-8
Current Conf Record:13-7
Expected Conf Record:13-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:9-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-0
Current OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC RPI:42
Expected OOC SOS:236



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-826.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Arizona.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Pacific (268.0)WCCH79-61W100%0.0
11-16Bradley (306.0)MVCH90-60W100%0.0
11-19Boise St. (101.0)MWCH88-76W100%0.0
11-22Northwestern St. (344.0)SlndH61-42W100%0.0
11-26Santa Clara (251.0)WCCN75-73W100%0.0
11-27Providence (40.0)BEN65-69L0%0.0
11-29Boise St. (101.0)MWCN68-59W100%0.0
12-5Gonzaga (46.0)WCCA63-68W100%0.0
12-9Fresno St. (66.0)MWCH85-72W100%0.0
12-13Missouri (222.0)SECH88-52W100%0.0
12-16Northern Arizona (333.0)BSkyH92-37W100%0.0
12-19UNLV (147.0)MWCH82-70W100%0.0
12-22Long Beach St. (79.0)BWH85-70W100%0.0
1-3Arizona St. (99.0)P12A82-94W100%0.0
1-7UCLA (102.0)P12A87-84L0%0.0
1-9USC (51.0)P12A103-101L0%0.0
1-14Washington (83.0)P12H99-67W100%0.0
1-16Washington St. (212.0)P12H90-66W100%0.0
1-21Stanford (86.0)P12A57-71W100%0.0
1-23California (16.0)P12A74-73L0%0.0
1-28Oregon (2.0)P12H75-83L0%0.0
1-30Oregon St. (33.0)P12H80-63W100%0.0
2-3Washington St. (212.0)P12A64-79W100%0.0
2-6Washington (83.0)P12A72-77W100%0.0
2-12UCLA (102.0)P12H81-75W100%0.0
2-14USC (51.0)P12H86-78W100%0.0
2-17Arizona St. (99.0)P12H99-61W100%0.0
2-24Colorado (35.0)P12A75-72L0%0.0
2-27Utah (8.0)P12A70-64L0%0.0
3-3California (16.0)P12H64-61W100%0.0
3-5Stanford (86.0)P12H94-62W100%0.0
3-10Colorado (35.0)P12N82-78W100%0.0
3-11Oregon (2.0)P12N95-89L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Arizona's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Arizona's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Arizona.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ArizonaP1226.2926.2975.9475.9413.6413.64
OregonP123.943.9480.6580.652.422.42
WashingtonP123.843.8460.0060.000.770.77
UCLAP123.843.8446.6746.67-0.26-0.26
Washington St.P123.813.8128.5728.57-1.63-1.63
ColoradoP123.803.8066.6766.671.271.27
Arizona St.P123.803.8050.0050.000.000.00
USCP123.803.8064.5264.521.101.10
CaliforniaP123.753.7570.9770.971.571.57
StanfordP123.743.7451.8551.850.140.14
Boise St.MWC3.203.2064.2964.290.910.91
UtahP122.422.4275.0075.001.211.21
Oregon St.P122.372.3762.0762.070.570.57
UNLVMWC1.831.8353.3353.330.120.12
GonzagaWCC1.801.8080.6580.651.101.10
Fresno St.MWC1.711.7174.1974.190.830.83
Northern ArizonaBSky1.641.6411.1111.11-1.28-1.28
PacificWCC1.641.6424.0024.00-0.85-0.85
Santa ClaraWCC1.621.6234.4834.48-0.50-0.50
Long Beach St.BW1.611.6158.0658.060.260.26
BradleyMVC1.571.5713.3313.33-1.15-1.15
MissouriSEC1.521.5233.3333.33-0.51-0.51
Northwestern St.Slnd1.521.5221.7421.74-0.86-0.86
ProvidenceBE1.521.5268.7568.750.570.57
Colorado St.MWC0.320.3250.0050.000.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.310.3171.8871.880.140.14
BYUWCC0.300.3068.7568.750.110.11
New MexicoMWC0.290.2953.1253.120.020.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.280.2883.8783.870.190.19
PortlandWCC0.280.2835.4835.48-0.08-0.08
NevadaMWC0.280.2856.6756.670.040.04
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.260.2656.6756.670.030.03
PepperdineWCC0.250.2556.6756.670.030.03
WyomingMWC0.240.2440.0040.00-0.05-0.05
Loyola MarymountWCC0.230.2343.3343.33-0.03-0.03
UC IrvineBW0.220.2271.8871.880.100.10
Air ForceMWC0.220.2240.0040.00-0.04-0.04
San DiegoWCC0.200.2027.5927.59-0.09-0.09
San Jose St.MWC0.200.2021.4321.43-0.11-0.11
Cal PolyBW0.190.1928.5728.57-0.08-0.08
San FranciscoWCC0.180.1848.2848.28-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.180.1862.0762.070.040.04
Utah St.MWC0.170.1748.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.160.1641.3841.38-0.03-0.03
IdahoBSky0.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.150.1528.5728.57-0.06-0.06
TexasB120.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
Wichita St.MVC0.140.1474.1974.190.070.07
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.140.1428.5728.57-0.06-0.06
MonmouthMAAC0.140.1479.4179.410.080.08
ArkansasSEC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.130.1348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.120.1283.3383.330.080.08
VillanovaBE0.120.1285.2985.290.090.09
EvansvilleMVC0.120.1272.7372.730.050.05
UC RiversideBW0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
KentuckySEC0.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
XavierBE0.120.1284.3884.380.080.08
McNeese St.Slnd0.110.1126.9226.92-0.05-0.05
Nicholls St.Slnd0.110.1125.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.110.1182.1482.140.070.07
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
MississippiSEC0.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
AuburnSEC0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.100.1014.2914.29-0.07-0.07
Northern IowaMVC0.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
DePaulBE0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.100.1072.4172.410.040.04
UC DavisBW0.100.1032.1432.14-0.03-0.03
RiceCUSA0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Seton HallBE0.090.0975.7675.760.050.05
VirginiaACC0.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
MarquetteBE0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
SeattleWAC0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.090.0925.9325.93-0.04-0.04
Green BayHorz0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.080.0856.0056.000.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Michigan St.B100.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.070.0787.8887.880.060.06
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
TCUB120.070.0736.3636.36-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.070.0780.0080.000.040.04
HawaiiBW0.070.0783.3383.330.050.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
ButlerBE0.070.0767.7467.740.020.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.060.0626.9226.92-0.03-0.03
Montana St.BSky0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
TulsaAmer0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Texas St.SB0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
DrakeMVC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.050.0544.1244.12-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.050.0544.1244.12-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
OaklandHorz0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
DavidsonA100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
LafayettePat0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
NavyPat0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
RichmondA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
St. John'sBE0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
YaleIvy0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0358.0658.060.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0376.6776.670.020.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
IonaMAAC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
LipscombASun0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
DelawareCAA0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
IndianaB100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
Kansas St.B120.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
LSUSEC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
NorthwesternB100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
WoffordSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
BrownIvy0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
IPFWSum0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
MassachusettsA100.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
NJITASun0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
RiderMAAC0.020.0239.3939.39-0.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Texas TechB120.020.0261.2961.290.010.01