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Through games of Feb 3, 2016.


Arizona

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:28.5
Current RPI:33
Expected SOS:72
Current SOS:94
Current Record:18-5
Expected Record:24-7
Current Conf Record:6-4
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:9-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC RPI:41
Expected OOC SOS:235



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-515.67.31%
25-620.125.25%
24-726.032.94%
23-834.722.54%
22-946.29.37%
21-1058.92.19%
20-1171.40.36%
19-1284.00.01%
18-13100.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Arizona.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Pacific (250.2)WCCH79-61W100%0.0
11-16Bradley (312.7)MVCH90-60W100%0.0
11-19Boise St. (78.9)MWCH88-76W100%0.0
11-22Northwestern St. (334.0)SlndH61-42W100%0.0
11-26Santa Clara (255.2)WCCN75-73W100%0.0
11-27Providence (41.2)BEN65-69L0%0.0
11-29Boise St. (78.9)MWCN68-59W100%0.0
12-5Gonzaga (49.6)WCCA63-68W100%0.0
12-9Fresno St. (136.9)MWCH85-72W100%0.0
12-13Missouri (215.9)SECH88-52W100%0.0
12-16Northern Arizona (327.6)BSkyH92-37W100%0.0
12-19UNLV (109.6)MWCH82-70W100%0.0
12-22Long Beach St. (102.1)BWH85-70W100%0.0
1-3Arizona St. (83.5)P12A82-94W100%0.0
1-7UCLA (64.3)P12A87-84L0%0.0
1-9USC (23.8)P12A103-101L0%0.0
1-14Washington (57.8)P12H99-67W100%0.0
1-16Washington St. (178.4)P12H90-66W100%0.0
1-21Stanford (80.5)P12A57-71W100%0.0
1-23California (47.0)P12A74-73L0%0.0
1-28Oregon (7.5)P12H75-83L0%0.0
1-30Oregon St. (72.9)P12H80-63W100%0.0
2-3Washington St. (178.4)P12A64-79W100%0.0
2-6Washington (57.8)P12A0-066%4.5
2-12UCLA (64.3)P12H0-083%10.4
2-14USC (23.8)P12H0-075%7.2
2-17Arizona St. (83.5)P12H0-086%11.7
2-24Colorado (37.4)P12A0-060%2.7
2-27Utah (24.4)P12A0-055%1.4
3-3California (47.0)P12H0-078%8.6
3-5Stanford (80.5)P12H0-089%13.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Arizona's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Arizona's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Arizona.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ArizonaP1226.4226.2877.8976.2514.7413.80
UCLAP122.844.0157.1454.320.410.35
Arizona St.P122.744.0154.5553.150.250.25
Washington St.P124.753.9842.1135.86-0.75-1.12
WashingtonP122.623.9571.4365.411.121.22
USCP122.693.9376.1972.371.411.76
CaliforniaP122.393.8861.9062.060.570.94
StanfordP122.383.8755.5651.120.260.09
Boise St.MWC4.613.3973.6870.922.191.42
OregonP122.752.5180.0076.121.651.31
ColoradoP120.482.3776.1969.280.250.91
UtahP120.482.3776.1971.370.251.01
Oregon St.P122.482.3661.1154.420.550.21
GonzagaWCC2.601.9280.0078.201.561.08
UNLVMWC2.481.9155.0059.520.250.36
Fresno St.MWC2.441.7863.1659.380.640.33
Northern ArizonaBSky2.431.755.8811.34-2.15-1.35
PacificWCC2.331.7523.5328.19-1.23-0.76
Santa ClaraWCC2.341.7333.3333.36-0.78-0.58
Long Beach St.BW2.281.6945.0053.21-0.230.11
BradleyMVC2.281.679.0910.14-1.86-1.33
MissouriSEC2.171.6138.1032.01-0.52-0.58
Northwestern St.Slnd2.171.6120.0027.23-1.30-0.73
ProvidenceBE2.171.6177.2771.041.190.68
New MexicoMWC0.410.3363.6464.000.110.09
San Diego St.MWC0.310.3371.4370.830.130.14
NevadaMWC0.380.3157.8956.090.060.04
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.360.2942.1151.91-0.060.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.330.2889.4787.610.260.21
PepperdineWCC0.320.2861.9061.170.080.06
WyomingMWC0.260.2740.9140.46-0.05-0.05
Loyola MarymountWCC0.320.2642.8641.51-0.05-0.04
PortlandWCC0.310.2634.7833.52-0.10-0.08
BYUWCC0.210.2568.1871.060.080.11
Colorado St.MWC0.210.2550.0048.760.00-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.210.2330.0027.15-0.08-0.10
San Jose St.MWC0.260.2225.0022.60-0.13-0.12
Cal PolyBW0.260.2231.5836.20-0.09-0.06
San FranciscoWCC0.270.2052.3848.770.01-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.320.2072.7371.810.140.09
MontanaBSky0.270.2058.8263.290.050.05
Utah St.MWC0.260.1947.3749.38-0.01-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.110.1942.8635.07-0.02-0.06
Sacramento St.BSky0.160.1741.1846.10-0.03-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.170.1733.3331.34-0.06-0.06
IdahoBSky0.210.1755.0056.370.020.02
TexasB120.160.1768.1861.780.060.04
Wichita St.MVC0.200.1676.1979.630.100.10
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.150.1630.0028.66-0.06-0.07
MonmouthMAAC0.150.1678.2680.250.080.09
ArkansasSEC0.170.1450.0054.860.000.01
Idaho St.BSky0.160.1444.4443.87-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.200.1473.9176.040.090.07
Texas A&MSEC0.150.1385.7182.930.110.09
KentuckySEC0.150.1372.7369.670.070.05
XavierBE0.150.1390.9184.400.120.09
McNeese St.Slnd0.120.1218.7533.14-0.07-0.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.1268.7574.750.020.06
Southern UtahBSky0.110.1116.6717.87-0.07-0.07
MississippiSEC0.160.1163.6456.110.040.01
SMUAmer0.060.1190.4885.710.050.08
UC DavisBW0.160.1138.8935.52-0.03-0.03
UC RiversideBW0.150.1147.8343.86-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.160.1163.1666.780.040.04
DePaulBE0.100.1136.3634.92-0.03-0.03
VillanovaBE0.100.1186.3685.350.080.08
Northern IowaMVC0.200.1152.1754.090.010.01
RiceCUSA0.160.1126.3229.25-0.08-0.05
Seton HallBE0.150.1172.7368.720.070.04
VirginiaACC0.150.1181.8276.010.090.06
SeattleWAC0.100.1142.1142.31-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.090.1060.8759.050.020.02
MarquetteBE0.090.1065.2256.550.030.01
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0929.4138.47-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0910.0015.31-0.05-0.07
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.120.0947.3752.52-0.010.00
Green BayHorz0.120.0955.0056.530.010.01
AuburnSEC0.120.0942.8637.17-0.02-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.120.0955.5650.830.010.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.120.0953.3355.170.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.120.0947.3750.47-0.010.00
Portland St.BSky0.100.0929.4137.27-0.04-0.02
Michigan St.B100.150.0882.6181.350.100.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.100.0843.4848.61-0.01-0.00
KansasB120.110.0880.9577.020.070.04
TCUB120.100.0845.4537.84-0.01-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.0831.5833.46-0.04-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.100.0852.1749.340.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.0716.6724.26-0.05-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0710.5325.39-0.05-0.03
LamarSlnd0.120.0633.3332.74-0.04-0.02
BaylorB120.120.0676.1967.300.060.02
Montana St.BSky0.060.0640.0042.82-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.060.0666.6771.280.020.03
TulsaAmer0.120.0666.6761.590.040.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0625.0029.30-0.03-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.060.0635.2933.97-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.060.0660.0061.340.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.110.0641.1845.90-0.02-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0631.5830.77-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.110.0680.9583.050.070.04
HawaiiBW0.050.0682.3577.820.030.03
OklahomaB120.100.0690.4884.890.080.04
Oklahoma St.B120.100.0650.0045.760.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.0647.6257.23-0.000.01
Texas St.SB0.100.0643.7540.62-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.100.0647.6247.96-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0510.0014.93-0.04-0.04
DukeACC0.050.0572.7369.840.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.0521.7424.59-0.06-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.100.0531.8226.63-0.04-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.050.0550.0048.300.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0536.3642.26-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0522.7324.87-0.03-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0552.1747.670.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0554.5555.320.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0540.9139.23-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.090.0540.9138.05-0.02-0.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0565.2266.560.020.02
PennIvy0.050.0531.2532.69-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0575.0073.420.020.03
AlabamaSEC0.050.0557.1452.230.010.00
Arkansas St.SB0.100.0542.1140.62-0.02-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0559.0959.600.010.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0568.1869.120.020.02
ButlerBE0.090.0568.1866.500.030.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0515.7922.52-0.03-0.03
DavidsonA100.050.0557.8955.390.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0545.4541.72-0.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0556.5253.380.010.00
GeorgiaSEC0.100.0560.0056.160.020.01
IllinoisB100.100.0547.8344.57-0.00-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0522.7324.28-0.03-0.03
LafayettePat0.050.0523.8125.21-0.03-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0555.5660.870.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0586.3680.680.040.03
RichmondA100.050.0552.3853.660.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0518.1822.83-0.03-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0585.7176.030.040.03
St. John'sBE0.050.0527.2724.42-0.02-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.050.0545.4542.10-0.00-0.01
YaleIvy0.050.0570.5972.510.020.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.070.0333.3333.52-0.02-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0340.0044.98-0.01-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.070.0373.6870.400.030.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0389.4785.660.050.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0338.1047.45-0.01-0.00
IonaMAAC0.060.0357.1457.870.010.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.060.0335.0035.36-0.02-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0371.4370.600.020.01
DenverSum0.050.0350.0047.470.00-0.00
IndianaB100.050.0382.6177.370.030.02
LipscombASun0.050.0321.7427.66-0.03-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0365.0063.840.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0361.9066.510.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.034.7613.99-0.05-0.02
South DakotaSum0.050.0340.9141.34-0.01-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.050.0361.9058.220.010.00
DelawareCAA0.050.0323.8124.93-0.02-0.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0372.7368.850.000.01
IPFWSum0.000.0372.7368.270.000.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0350.0056.520.000.00
Miami FLACC0.000.0380.9575.610.000.01
NavyPat0.050.0365.2265.140.020.01
Penn St.B100.000.0347.8343.74-0.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.000.0360.0056.740.000.00
Texas TechB120.000.0361.9053.990.000.00
TowsonCAA0.050.0366.6759.160.020.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0368.4272.210.020.01
BrownIvy0.050.0329.4129.70-0.02-0.01
BryantNEC0.050.0327.2728.18-0.02-0.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0368.1867.860.000.01
HartfordAE0.050.0326.0926.46-0.02-0.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0338.8942.87-0.01-0.00
Kansas St.B120.050.0359.0955.590.010.00
LSUSEC0.000.0363.6459.340.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0327.2732.86-0.02-0.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0342.8639.85-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0342.8641.82-0.01-0.00
NJITASun0.050.0352.1754.520.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0366.6760.090.020.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0365.2262.560.020.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0354.5555.990.000.00
RiderMAAC0.050.0339.1342.17-0.01-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0357.1460.720.000.01
WoffordSC0.050.0340.0043.99-0.01-0.00