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Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


Tulsa

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:188.2
Current RPI:215
Expected SOS:85
Current SOS:261
Current Record:3-3
Expected Record:11-17
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-2
Current OOC Record:3-3
Expected OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC RPI:215
Expected OOC SOS:176



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-953.00.01%
18-1063.50.02%
17-1176.00.18%
16-1292.80.55%
15-13107.31.86%
14-14126.14.77%
13-15145.310.05%
12-16162.715.36%
11-17181.819.77%
10-18200.520.04%
9-19220.314.10%
8-20237.98.31%
7-21255.13.66%
6-22270.91.08%
5-23281.40.21%
4-24312.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tulsa.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Jacksonville St. (187.0)OVCH73-84L0%0.0
11-16Wichita St. (33.4)MVCA80-53L0%0.0
11-19New Orleans (251.5)SlndH77-68W100%0.0
11-22Oregon St. (268.9)P12H75-64W100%0.0
11-28Oral Roberts (290.8)SumA65-79W100%0.0
12-3Little Rock (151.3)SBA72-62L0%0.0
12-7Illinois St. (65.6)MVCH0-029%-6.6
12-10Oklahoma St. (58.4)B12H0-019%-10.5
12-17Texas St. (265.1)SBH0-073%7.5
12-22Stephen F. Austin (172.7)SlndN0-052%0.7
12-31Connecticut (139.2)AmerH0-046%-1.2
1-4Houston (37.7)AmerA0-07%-17.9
1-11Memphis (147.9)AmerH0-044%-1.9
1-14Temple (54.0)AmerA0-015%-12.3
1-18Tulane (283.2)AmerH0-076%8.3
1-21South Florida (267.6)AmerA0-057%2.0
1-25East Carolina (174.1)AmerA0-035%-4.6
1-28UCF (45.0)AmerH0-022%-9.2
2-1Cincinnati (18.5)AmerH0-011%-14.5
2-4SMU (59.0)AmerH0-025%-8.2
2-7Memphis (147.9)AmerA0-025%-8.2
2-11Houston (37.7)AmerH0-017%-11.7
2-14UCF (45.0)AmerA0-010%-15.5
2-18Cincinnati (18.5)AmerA0-04%-20.8
2-23South Florida (267.6)AmerH0-075%8.3
2-26East Carolina (174.1)AmerH0-056%1.7
3-2SMU (59.0)AmerA0-011%-14.5
3-5Tulane (283.2)AmerA0-057%2.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tulsa's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Tulsa's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Tulsa.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TulsaAmer28.6926.3250.0034.950.00-7.92
TulaneAmer0.834.4912.5023.23-0.62-2.40
HoustonAmer0.004.4285.7177.560.002.44
CincinnatiAmer0.004.4087.5081.670.002.79
East CarolinaAmer0.004.4077.7849.580.00-0.04
MemphisAmer0.004.4075.0054.790.000.42
UCFAmer0.004.4085.7175.680.002.26
SMUAmer0.004.4066.6765.820.001.39
South FloridaAmer0.004.3957.1433.170.00-1.48
ConnecticutAmer0.002.7533.3339.10-0.00-0.60
TempleAmer0.002.7375.0064.250.000.78
New OrleansSlnd8.331.9550.0043.600.00-0.25
Wichita St.MVC8.331.8871.4386.253.571.36
Oklahoma St.B120.831.8871.4353.400.360.13
Texas St.SB0.001.8850.0044.010.00-0.22
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.001.8525.0055.65-0.000.21
Little RockSB8.331.8560.0059.951.670.37
Illinois St.MVC0.001.8560.0067.640.000.65
Oral RobertsSum8.331.820.0023.13-8.33-0.98
Jacksonville St.OVC8.331.7942.8644.49-1.19-0.20
Oregon St.P128.331.7928.5723.73-3.57-0.94
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.310.0017.61-0.00-0.20
OklahomaB120.000.2471.4348.350.00-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.690.2312.5030.39-0.52-0.09
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.1916.6729.81-0.00-0.08
Missouri St.MVC0.520.1960.0058.590.100.03
TroySB0.000.1942.8636.19-0.00-0.05
TCUB120.520.18100.0061.680.520.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.1775.0061.490.000.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.1642.8637.34-0.00-0.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.1642.8650.12-0.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.1625.0043.41-0.00-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.1671.4363.930.000.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.600.1671.4358.920.260.03
USCP120.830.15100.0076.680.830.08
George WashingtonA100.000.1555.5641.690.00-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.1522.2221.23-0.00-0.09
DrakeMVC0.000.130.0019.67-0.00-0.08
EvansvilleMVC0.000.1342.8644.71-0.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1342.8650.11-0.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.1333.3352.84-0.000.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1357.1449.130.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.000.1342.8627.96-0.00-0.06
Appalachian St.SB0.000.1316.6729.80-0.00-0.05
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.1325.0038.83-0.00-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.000.1371.4357.970.000.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.1285.7166.190.000.04
South DakotaSum0.000.1250.0046.020.00-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.520.1214.2931.28-0.37-0.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.1214.2932.19-0.00-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.120.0022.58-0.00-0.07
South CarolinaSEC0.000.12100.0078.850.000.07
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1266.6761.550.000.03
Iowa St.B120.000.1271.4368.070.000.04
Rhode IslandA100.000.1262.5069.130.000.04
StanfordP120.000.1266.6758.060.000.02
StetsonASun0.000.1228.5728.24-0.00-0.05
AlbanyAE0.000.1242.8661.11-0.000.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.1120.0041.92-0.00-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.1150.0058.040.000.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.1040.0054.54-0.000.01
LamarSlnd0.520.1050.0041.540.00-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.000.1071.4370.210.000.04
IUPUISum0.000.1037.5051.64-0.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0962.5067.390.000.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0925.0039.59-0.00-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0975.0066.370.000.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0916.6730.34-0.00-0.04
UABCUSA0.000.0950.0059.920.000.02
BaylorB120.600.09100.0076.590.600.05
OregonP120.000.0975.0072.250.000.04
MississippiSEC0.600.0975.0048.500.30-0.00
Arizona St.P120.000.0962.5040.460.00-0.02
LSUSEC0.520.0971.4349.170.22-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.520.090.0034.47-0.52-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.520.0975.0048.030.26-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.0987.5081.960.000.06
SamfordSC0.520.0962.5056.520.130.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0971.4358.600.000.02
PennIvy0.000.0933.3356.57-0.000.01
VillanovaBE0.000.09100.0084.840.000.06
West VirginiaB120.000.0985.7183.660.000.06
CharlotteCUSA0.520.0971.4351.460.220.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.090.0018.64-0.00-0.05
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.070.0039.53-0.00-0.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0650.0050.450.000.00
Washington St.P120.830.0642.8628.98-0.12-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.000.0650.0061.240.000.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0675.0054.670.000.01
DenverSum0.000.0642.8645.01-0.00-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0642.8655.09-0.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0657.1458.940.000.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.060.0016.68-0.00-0.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0642.8643.60-0.00-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0650.0060.620.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0650.0041.990.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0642.8645.30-0.00-0.01
Michigan St.B101.120.0655.5658.610.120.01
UTSACUSA0.520.0625.0029.54-0.26-0.03
BelmontOVC0.000.0650.0064.350.000.02
DelawareCAA0.000.0650.0041.990.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0650.0050.840.000.00
ElonCAA0.000.0671.4359.470.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0625.0030.23-0.00-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0616.6738.58-0.00-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.520.0612.5023.75-0.39-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0642.8645.56-0.00-0.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0650.0048.810.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0685.7170.060.000.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0625.0027.53-0.00-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.060.0023.69-0.00-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.000.0655.5647.890.00-0.00
MarylandB100.000.0687.5059.330.000.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0685.7162.220.000.01
ColoradoP120.000.0675.0062.620.000.02
CornellIvy0.000.0628.5729.95-0.00-0.02
George MasonA100.000.0662.5046.900.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0657.1436.010.00-0.02
HarvardIvy0.000.0620.0046.79-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.000.0687.5075.860.000.03
Kansas St.B120.000.0687.5059.310.000.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0633.3348.07-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.520.060.0038.27-0.52-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0642.8630.92-0.00-0.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0657.1442.530.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0614.2938.26-0.00-0.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0616.6739.49-0.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.0640.0058.82-0.000.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0625.0020.78-0.00-0.03
St. John'sBE0.000.0637.5037.03-0.00-0.02
TexasB120.000.0657.1438.680.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.000.0687.5062.040.000.01
UCLAP120.000.06100.0086.690.000.04
UtahP120.000.0675.0059.790.000.01
VermontAE0.000.0662.5071.320.000.03
Air ForceMWC0.000.0657.1448.500.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.000.0642.8656.04-0.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0628.5741.52-0.00-0.01
BrownIvy0.000.0655.5646.970.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.000.06100.0074.440.000.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0642.8660.54-0.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0612.5037.99-0.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0650.0056.740.000.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0616.6739.78-0.00-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0633.3352.11-0.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0625.0031.41-0.00-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.0614.2942.67-0.00-0.01
IowaB100.000.0637.5037.74-0.00-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0614.2943.58-0.00-0.01
LipscombASun0.000.0612.5033.04-0.00-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0671.4354.860.000.01
MercerSC0.000.0642.8647.76-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.000.0675.0066.460.000.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0628.5732.62-0.00-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0675.0070.620.000.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0020.75-0.00-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0657.1471.520.000.02
Penn St.B100.000.0666.6746.420.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0675.0049.180.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0633.3327.06-0.00-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.000.0675.0056.590.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0650.0066.300.000.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.060.0033.85-0.00-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0683.3377.100.000.03
VirginiaACC0.000.0687.5078.510.000.03
XavierBE0.000.0687.5070.890.000.02
KentuckySEC0.000.0487.5082.800.000.02
LongwoodBSth0.000.0420.0021.80-0.00-0.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0475.0071.470.000.02
NorthwesternB100.000.0375.0066.170.000.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0342.8650.06-0.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0362.5058.450.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0076.630.000.02
MontanaBSky0.600.0325.0048.10-0.30-0.00
OaklandHorz0.600.0385.7177.150.430.02
RichmondA100.000.0350.0048.210.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.520.0312.5033.65-0.39-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0385.7157.450.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0333.3336.74-0.00-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0342.8654.90-0.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.520.0328.5733.77-0.22-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.690.0371.4356.250.300.00
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0371.4373.040.000.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0357.1450.080.000.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0387.5075.240.000.02
HowardMEAC0.000.0316.6744.34-0.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.690.0350.0052.760.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0333.3346.38-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.000.0312.5034.79-0.00-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0350.0044.400.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.000.0387.5068.610.000.01
PepperdineWCC0.690.0342.8633.23-0.10-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0342.8638.63-0.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.690.0371.4370.390.300.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0371.4366.700.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0344.4441.30-0.00-0.01
WagnerNEC0.000.0333.3354.47-0.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.520.0337.5035.09-0.13-0.01
ArizonaP120.000.0375.0068.370.000.01
CampbellBSth0.000.0342.8639.20-0.00-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.520.0371.4360.540.220.01
Fresno St.MWC0.520.0366.6740.030.17-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0357.1454.360.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.520.0387.5075.590.390.02
NevadaMWC0.520.0377.7871.970.290.01
PortlandWCC0.000.0350.0054.070.000.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0328.5723.78-0.00-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.520.030.0027.12-0.52-0.01
WashingtonP120.000.0357.1452.370.000.00
DePaulBE0.000.0366.6735.430.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0387.5065.250.000.01
La SalleA100.000.0366.6755.540.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0325.0034.40-0.00-0.01
New HampshireAE0.000.0357.1458.840.000.01
NJITASun0.000.0350.0049.780.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.000.0342.8663.41-0.000.01