Tulsa

Conference:	CUSA
Expected RPI:	127.0
Current RPI:	127
Expected SOS:	123
Current SOS:	123
Current Record:	16-15
Expected Record:	16-15
Current Conf Record:	9-9
Expected Conf Record:	9-9
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-3
Current OOC Record:	7-6
Expected OOC Record:	7-6
Expected OOC RPI:	122
Expected OOC SOS:	153

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
16-15	127.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tulsa.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-15	Northern Kentucky (264.0)	ASun	N	56-76	W	100%
11-16	San Diego (165.0)	WCC	A	51-63	W	100%
11-17	Cal St. Northridge (254.0)	BW	A	92-76	L	0%
11-21	Jackson St. (309.0)	SWAC	H	86-66	W	100%
11-24	Stephen F. Austin (65.0)	Slnd	H	41-57	L	0%
11-28	Wichita St. (37.0)	MVC	A	86-60	L	0%
12-5	Missouri St. (203.0)	MVC	H	61-42	W	100%
12-8	Texas Christian (238.0)	B12	H	50-49	W	100%
12-15	Arkansas Little Rock (176.0)	SB	A	72-65	L	0%
12-19	Creighton (25.0)	MVC	A	71-54	L	0%
12-22	Oral Roberts (151.0)	Slnd	A	68-72	W	100%
12-29	Florida St. (85.0)	ACC	A	82-63	L	0%
1-2	Buffalo (215.0)	MAC	H	63-57	W	100%
1-6	Southern Methodist (219.0)	CUSA	A	47-48	W	100%
1-9	Marshall (208.0)	CUSA	A	79-61	L	0%
1-12	Rice (324.0)	CUSA	H	64-51	W	100%
1-16	Texas El Paso (95.0)	CUSA	H	45-42	W	100%
1-19	Tulane (175.0)	CUSA	A	75-72	L	0%
1-23	Houston (197.0)	CUSA	A	72-87	W	100%
1-26	Southern Mississippi (31.0)	CUSA	H	59-62	L	0%
2-2	Memphis (12.0)	CUSA	A	94-64	L	0%
2-6	UAB (144.0)	CUSA	H	63-70	L	0%
2-9	Texas El Paso (95.0)	CUSA	A	70-74	W	100%
2-16	Houston (197.0)	CUSA	H	101-92	W	100%
2-20	East Carolina (100.0)	CUSA	H	63-72	L	0%
2-23	Central Florida (103.0)	CUSA	A	83-75	L	0%
3-2	Tulane (175.0)	CUSA	H	78-66	W	100%
3-6	Southern Methodist (219.0)	CUSA	H	65-71	L	0%
3-9	Rice (324.0)	CUSA	A	71-77	W	100%
3-14	East Carolina (100.0)	CUSA	H	79-72	W	100%
3-15	Memphis (12.0)	CUSA	H	74-85	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tulsa's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Tulsa's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Tulsa.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Tulsa	CUSA	26.19	26.19	51.75	51.75	0.92	0.92
Houston	CUSA	3.99	3.99	64.29	64.29	1.14	1.14
Texas El Paso	CUSA	3.97	3.97	60.00	60.00	0.79	0.79
Southern Methodist	CUSA	3.96	3.96	44.83	44.83	-0.41	-0.41
Tulane	CUSA	3.96	3.96	56.67	56.67	0.53	0.53
Rice	CUSA	3.93	3.93	14.81	14.81	-2.77	-2.77
Memphis	CUSA	3.92	3.92	87.50	87.50	2.94	2.94
East Carolina	CUSA	3.79	3.79	54.17	54.17	0.32	0.32
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	2.40	2.40	70.97	70.97	1.01	1.01
UAB	CUSA	2.38	2.38	45.16	45.16	-0.23	-0.23
Marshall	CUSA	2.30	2.30	36.67	36.67	-0.61	-0.61
Central Florida	CUSA	2.25	2.25	60.71	60.71	0.48	0.48
Missouri St.	MVC	1.81	1.81	30.00	30.00	-0.72	-0.72
Texas Christian	B12	1.80	1.80	33.33	33.33	-0.60	-0.60
Oral Roberts	Slnd	1.80	1.80	56.67	56.67	0.24	0.24
Wichita St.	MVC	1.79	1.79	75.76	75.76	0.92	0.92
Creighton	MVC	1.76	1.76	78.79	78.79	1.01	1.01
San Diego	WCC	1.75	1.75	45.16	45.16	-0.17	-0.17
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	1.69	1.69	84.62	84.62	1.17	1.17
Cal St. Northridge	BW	1.67	1.67	39.29	39.29	-0.36	-0.36
Northern Kentucky	ASun	1.67	1.67	42.31	42.31	-0.26	-0.26
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	1.66	1.66	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida St.	ACC	1.64	1.64	53.12	53.12	0.10	0.10
Buffalo	MAC	1.64	1.64	38.71	38.71	-0.37	-0.37
Jackson St.	SWAC	1.61	1.61	39.29	39.29	-0.35	-0.35
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.24	0.24	38.71	38.71	-0.05	-0.05
Drake	MVC	0.23	0.23	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.20	0.20	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.19	0.19	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.17	0.17	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Evansville	MVC	0.17	0.17	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.17	0.17	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.17	0.17	17.86	17.86	-0.11	-0.11
Grambling	SWAC	0.16	0.16	0.00	0.00	-0.16	-0.16
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.16	0.16	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.16	0.16	30.00	30.00	-0.06	-0.06
North Carolina	ACC	0.16	0.16	69.70	69.70	0.06	0.06
Chicago St.	GWC	0.16	0.16	25.00	25.00	-0.08	-0.08
Oklahoma	B12	0.16	0.16	64.52	64.52	0.05	0.05
Pepperdine	WCC	0.15	0.15	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.15	0.15	69.70	69.70	0.06	0.06
Bradley	MVC	0.15	0.15	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.14	0.14	70.37	70.37	0.06	0.06
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.14	0.14	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Texas	B12	0.13	0.13	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southern	SWAC	0.13	0.13	68.97	68.97	0.05	0.05
Utah	P12	0.13	0.13	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
North Florida	ASun	0.13	0.13	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Navy	Pat	0.13	0.13	23.33	23.33	-0.07	-0.07
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.13	0.13	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.13	0.13	31.25	31.25	-0.05	-0.05
Hofstra	CAA	0.13	0.13	19.35	19.35	-0.08	-0.08
Brigham Young	WCC	0.13	0.13	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
St. Mary's	WCC	0.13	0.13	81.25	81.25	0.08	0.08
Nebraska	B10	0.12	0.12	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.12	0.12	72.73	72.73	0.06	0.06
Clemson	ACC	0.12	0.12	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Charlotte	A10	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.11	0.11	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Jacksonville	ASun	0.11	0.11	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.11	0.11	9.68	9.68	-0.09	-0.09
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.11	0.11	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.11	0.11	29.03	29.03	-0.05	-0.05
Texas Tech	B12	0.11	0.11	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.11	0.11	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Florida International	SB	0.11	0.11	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.11	0.11	28.12	28.12	-0.05	-0.05
Lipscomb	ASun	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.11	0.11	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.11	0.11	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.11	0.11	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.11	0.11	84.85	84.85	0.07	0.07
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.10	0.10	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
North Texas	SB	0.10	0.10	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Harvard	Ivy	0.10	0.10	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.10	0.10	14.81	14.81	-0.07	-0.07
South Alabama	SB	0.10	0.10	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Arizona	P12	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Stetson	ASun	0.09	0.09	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.09	0.09	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.09	0.09	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Texas A&M	SEC	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.08	0.08	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.08	0.08	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Cal Poly	BW	0.08	0.08	55.17	55.17	0.01	0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	17.86	17.86	-0.05	-0.05
Pacific	BW	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.08	0.08	20.69	20.69	-0.05	-0.05
Temple	A10	0.08	0.08	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
UC Irvine	BW	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.08	0.08	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
San Francisco	WCC	0.08	0.08	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Baylor	B12	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Southern Utah	BSky	0.08	0.08	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.08	0.08	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Texas St.	WAC	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
West Virginia	B12	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.08	0.08	80.65	80.65	0.05	0.05
Troy	SB	0.08	0.08	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
Western Kentucky	SB	0.08	0.08	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.08	0.08	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Kent St.	MAC	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Akron	MAC	0.07	0.07	80.65	80.65	0.05	0.05
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.07	0.07	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Minnesota	B10	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.07	0.07	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
Appalachian St.	SC	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
NC Greensboro	SC	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.06	0.06	10.00	10.00	-0.05	-0.05
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Hartford	AE	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Long Island	NEC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
New Orleans	ind	0.06	0.06	18.18	18.18	-0.04	-0.04
South Florida	BE	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.06	0.06	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
Belmont	OVC	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
San Jose St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Washington St.	P12	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Arkansas St.	SB	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Furman	SC	0.05	0.05	17.24	17.24	-0.03	-0.03
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.02	0.02
Gonzaga	WCC	0.05	0.05	93.75	93.75	0.04	0.04
Idaho	WAC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Oregon	P12	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Portland	WCC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Wofford	SC	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Maryland	ACC	0.05	0.05	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.03	0.03
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Samford	SC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Seattle	WAC	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Washington	P12	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Valparaiso	Horz	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Weber St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Denver	WAC	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia Southern	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.03	0.03	58.82	58.82	0.00	0.00
Liberty	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Montana	BSky	0.03	0.03	79.31	79.31	0.01	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Niagara	MAAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Northeastern	CAA	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Princeton	Ivy	0.03	0.03	59.26	59.26	0.00	0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Western Illinois	Sum	0.03	0.03	71.43	71.43	0.01	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.02	0.02	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Duke	ACC	0.02	0.02	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Maine	AE	0.02	0.02	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.02	0.02	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Boise St.	MWC	0.02	0.02	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
California	P12	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.02	0.02	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
DePaul	BE	0.02	0.02	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.02	0.02	60.00	60.00	0.00	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.02	0.02	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.02	0.02	67.86	67.86	0.01	0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.02	0.02	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Western Carolina	SC	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.02	0.02	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01