live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Jan 21, 2018.


Tulsa

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:128.6
Current RPI:117
Expected SOS:102
Current SOS:94
Current Record:11-9
Expected Record:16-14
Current Conf Record:4-4
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-1
Current OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:172
Expected OOC SOS:219



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-1064.00.20%
19-1175.52.05%
18-1290.79.63%
17-13108.822.82%
16-14128.330.16%
15-15147.422.45%
14-16166.210.21%
13-17184.42.25%
12-18199.80.21%
11-19219.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tulsa.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Lamar (226.9)SlndH67-74L0%0.0
11-13Oral Roberts (220.9)SumH90-71W100%0.0
11-16Western Michigan (163.8)MACN74-81W100%0.0
11-17Iowa St. (107.1)B12N78-80L0%0.0
11-19Illinois St. (119.5)MVCN68-84L0%0.0
11-25Central Arkansas (237.0)SlndH92-72W100%0.0
11-28UTSA (248.7)CUSAH100-96W100%0.0
12-2Illinois St. (119.5)MVCA65-58L0%0.0
12-9Kansas St. (67.7)B12A54-61W100%0.0
12-14Prairie View A&M (267.8)SWACH77-73W100%0.0
12-16Manhattan (204.8)MAACH80-66W100%0.0
12-19Oklahoma St. (94.5)B12A71-59L0%0.0
12-28East Carolina (279.7)AmerH79-53W100%0.0
12-31Tulane (107.7)AmerA56-65W100%0.0
1-3Connecticut (102.6)AmerH90-88W100%0.0
1-6Memphis (118.6)AmerA76-67L0%0.0
1-11Houston (42.5)AmerA104-71L0%0.0
1-13Wichita St. (18.0)AmerH69-72L0%0.0
1-17Temple (61.5)AmerA59-58L0%0.0
1-20Memphis (118.6)AmerH64-51W100%0.0
1-28Wichita St. (18.0)AmerA0-07%-16.1
2-1SMU (42.6)AmerH0-028%-6.3
2-4South Florida (296.6)AmerA0-082%10.3
2-8Tulane (107.7)AmerH0-065%4.3
2-15Connecticut (102.6)AmerA0-040%-2.9
2-18South Florida (296.6)AmerH0-093%16.7
2-21UCF (68.3)AmerH0-050%-0.1
2-25Cincinnati (11.4)AmerA0-05%-18.1
3-1East Carolina (279.7)AmerA0-076%8.0
3-4Temple (61.5)AmerH0-052%0.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tulsa's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Tulsa's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Tulsa.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TulsaAmer26.5926.2852.4451.541.300.81
ConnecticutAmer2.824.0555.5648.580.31-0.11
MemphisAmer5.204.0566.6759.131.730.74
TulaneAmer2.824.0566.6760.770.940.87
East CarolinaAmer2.704.0444.4434.01-0.30-1.29
South FloridaAmer0.264.0235.0027.09-0.08-1.84
TempleAmer2.764.0250.0050.140.000.01
Wichita St.Amer2.834.0277.7876.031.572.09
Illinois St.MVC5.003.3341.1842.09-0.88-0.53
HoustonAmer2.892.4977.7872.061.611.10
UCFAmer0.322.4668.4261.220.120.55
SMUAmer0.262.4470.0070.540.111.00
CincinnatiAmer0.262.4489.4785.240.201.72
Oklahoma St.B122.761.8666.6752.560.920.10
Kansas St.B122.701.8177.7864.811.500.54
Iowa St.B122.631.7758.8245.400.46-0.16
Oral RobertsSum2.631.7231.5833.77-0.97-0.56
Central ArkansasSlnd2.581.7047.3750.99-0.140.03
LamarSlnd2.561.6946.6753.16-0.170.11
Prairie View A&MSWAC2.571.6922.2240.80-1.43-0.31
ManhattanMAAC2.501.6752.6352.620.130.09
UTSACUSA2.501.6743.7541.12-0.31-0.30
Western MichiganMAC2.501.6756.2554.100.310.14
OklahomaB120.340.2577.7867.910.190.09
BaylorB120.260.2561.1156.090.060.03
West VirginiaB120.130.1984.2178.170.090.11
TCUB120.140.1973.6865.600.060.06
Missouri St.MVC0.260.1770.0068.300.100.06
South CarolinaSEC0.340.1761.1151.910.080.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.210.1752.9455.030.010.02
Northern IowaMVC0.070.1744.4450.08-0.010.00
CharlotteCUSA0.130.1723.5325.64-0.07-0.08
New OrleansSlnd0.330.1737.5045.24-0.08-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.260.1612.5025.45-0.20-0.08
KansasB120.140.1684.2179.750.090.10
TexasB120.140.1663.1657.630.040.02
Texas TechB120.140.1678.9571.810.080.07
Houston BaptistSlnd0.220.155.8819.35-0.19-0.09
Southern IllinoisMVC0.210.1555.0052.470.020.01
BradleyMVC0.210.1465.0057.880.060.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.260.1457.8966.260.040.05
Nicholls St.Slnd0.130.1450.0051.380.000.00
Little RockSB0.310.1422.2225.25-0.17-0.07
ArkansasSEC0.190.1468.4264.200.070.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.130.149.5217.90-0.11-0.09
SouthernSWAC0.130.1427.7840.97-0.06-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.210.127.6923.28-0.18-0.06
Incarnate WordSlnd0.210.127.6920.09-0.17-0.07
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.1228.5731.26-0.03-0.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.140.1243.7549.13-0.02-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.130.1272.2272.980.060.05
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.1280.0078.850.000.07
DrakeMVC0.130.1155.0048.980.01-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.130.1152.6347.520.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.260.1144.4446.02-0.03-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.130.1178.9574.190.080.06
ValparaisoMVC0.000.1147.3748.770.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.117.1414.820.00-0.08
Cleveland St.Horz0.140.1120.0023.34-0.08-0.06
Miami OHMAC0.140.1147.0641.41-0.01-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.130.1141.1839.16-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.200.1178.9576.990.120.06
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.1146.6746.970.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.130.1136.8444.11-0.03-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.140.1133.3337.23-0.05-0.03
UMKCWAC0.190.1121.0524.75-0.11-0.06
Arkansas St.SB0.070.1127.7831.11-0.03-0.04
AuburnSEC0.130.1189.4777.000.100.06
MonmouthMAAC0.130.1127.7841.03-0.06-0.02
SienaMAAC0.190.1128.5729.94-0.08-0.04
VillanovaBE0.130.1194.7490.310.120.09
OregonP120.190.1165.0063.850.060.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.1130.0036.50-0.03-0.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.230.0927.7838.14-0.10-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.150.0933.3334.10-0.05-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.130.0942.8635.24-0.02-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.140.0955.5656.740.020.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0952.9452.650.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0978.9576.750.040.05
BuffaloMAC0.070.0872.2274.930.030.04
FIUCUSA0.070.0835.2935.54-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0837.5037.68-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.130.0861.1164.130.030.02
CaliforniaP120.130.0836.8431.12-0.03-0.03
DrexelCAA0.130.0830.0030.99-0.05-0.03
FairfieldMAAC0.190.0838.8944.08-0.04-0.01
FordhamA100.130.0831.5829.06-0.05-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.130.0873.6869.640.060.03
George WashingtonA100.130.0845.0043.48-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0866.6755.940.020.01
Georgia St.SB0.130.0866.6765.520.040.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0827.7834.50-0.03-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.130.0868.4258.980.050.01
LSUSEC0.190.0861.1153.170.040.01
MercerSC0.130.0844.4454.86-0.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0829.4139.63-0.03-0.02
StetsonASun0.000.0833.3336.930.00-0.02
ArizonaP120.070.0880.0078.940.040.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.080.0010.67-0.07-0.06
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.0811.1115.29-0.05-0.06
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0816.6724.260.00-0.04
DenverSum0.060.0633.3336.48-0.02-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.060.0652.6351.690.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0625.0028.01-0.03-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0644.4450.31-0.010.00
South DakotaSum0.060.0673.6872.380.030.03
OaklandHorz0.140.0661.9065.160.030.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0652.6355.290.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.070.0644.4446.65-0.01-0.00
RiceCUSA0.070.0611.1117.68-0.06-0.04
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0641.1838.47-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.130.0610.5318.34-0.10-0.04
UNLVMWC0.130.0673.6865.260.060.02
NebraskaB100.070.0666.6759.820.020.01
Ball St.MAC0.070.0661.1158.700.020.01
BYUWCC0.130.0680.9576.240.080.03
CampbellBSth0.070.0647.0647.41-0.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.070.0652.3848.530.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0662.5058.690.000.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.130.0625.0031.45-0.07-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.060.009.09-0.07-0.05
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.130.0642.1146.00-0.02-0.00
MississippiSEC0.130.0652.6345.860.01-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.130.0670.5975.950.050.03
NevadaMWC0.130.0685.7182.090.090.04
RadfordBSth0.070.0657.8958.850.010.01
RutgersB100.070.0655.0046.690.01-0.00
ToledoMAC0.070.0666.6767.700.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0622.2227.33-0.04-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0668.4270.810.000.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.140.0645.0047.07-0.01-0.00
Saint LouisA100.140.0647.3746.92-0.01-0.00
OhioMAC0.070.0647.0648.41-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.070.0684.2173.240.050.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0666.6765.640.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0645.0041.33-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0660.0064.110.000.02
La SalleA100.070.0640.0042.69-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.070.0640.0042.52-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.060.0621.0522.02-0.04-0.03
MarquetteBE0.070.0668.4260.550.020.01
MissouriSEC0.070.0666.6763.200.020.01
Morehead St.OVC0.130.0623.5328.69-0.07-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0657.1453.050.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.070.0680.0075.060.040.03
Notre DameACC0.070.0663.1661.020.020.01
PennIvy0.070.0664.7162.720.020.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0635.0031.830.00-0.02
RiderMAAC0.060.0665.0065.320.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0650.0051.640.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.070.0650.0045.870.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0627.7831.71-0.03-0.02
WisconsinB100.070.0650.0046.300.00-0.00
UCLAP120.060.0565.0062.050.020.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.0510.5316.750.00-0.04
AlbanyAE0.130.0571.4370.240.050.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0550.0052.460.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.070.0550.0053.260.000.00
BryantNEC0.130.059.5217.12-0.10-0.04
ColgatePat0.070.0550.0051.030.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.070.0520.0032.25-0.04-0.02
ElonCAA0.000.0552.6351.080.000.00
HowardMEAC0.000.0510.5327.290.00-0.02
IndianaB100.000.0557.8950.710.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0538.8943.43-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.130.0578.9569.790.070.02
Loyola MDPat0.130.0522.2228.66-0.07-0.02
Michigan St.B100.070.0585.0083.200.050.04
Northern KentuckyHorz0.130.0566.6773.210.040.02
SamfordSC0.130.0527.7832.66-0.06-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.070.0536.8445.21-0.02-0.01
SyracuseACC0.070.0568.4261.230.020.01
Texas A&MSEC0.130.0568.4263.960.050.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0521.0544.26-0.04-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.070.0545.0045.03-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0329.4133.20-0.03-0.01
DuquesneA100.080.0370.0058.090.030.00
MinnesotaB100.060.0363.6457.630.020.00
MontanaBSky0.060.0370.5973.150.030.01
Penn St.B100.060.0361.9055.760.010.00
UC DavisBW0.080.0358.8262.440.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.070.0325.0028.24-0.04-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0368.4263.650.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0372.2274.710.000.01
Texas St.SB0.070.0357.8950.210.010.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.070.0366.6766.020.020.01
AkronMAC0.070.0347.0644.91-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0358.8249.760.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.070.030.003.07-0.07-0.03
DetroitHorz0.070.0321.0525.97-0.04-0.01
IdahoBSky0.070.0364.7166.850.020.01
Kent St.MAC0.070.0344.4444.92-0.01-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0361.9063.140.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0338.8940.780.00-0.01
HarvardIvy0.060.0337.5046.69-0.02-0.00
HofstraCAA0.060.0357.8959.490.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.060.0326.3230.49-0.03-0.01
IowaB100.070.0347.6244.02-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.070.0350.0054.190.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0315.7920.91-0.05-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.070.0370.0060.470.030.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.060.0342.1146.09-0.01-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0350.0048.730.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.060.0375.0067.890.030.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0333.3335.21-0.02-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0347.3742.160.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0372.2268.930.000.01
TowsonCAA0.060.0363.1665.970.020.01
Wake ForestACC0.070.0342.1140.46-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0364.7159.990.000.01
AmericanPat0.070.0326.3228.11-0.03-0.01
Arizona St.P120.070.0378.9576.130.040.01
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0344.4446.00-0.01-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.000.0323.5328.210.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0331.5832.72-0.02-0.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0373.6871.560.000.01
HawaiiBW0.070.0368.7563.990.020.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0326.6729.040.00-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0372.2258.920.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.070.0345.0048.56-0.01-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.0383.3384.240.040.02
PittsburghACC0.070.0340.0030.87-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.000.0331.5834.360.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.070.0342.1143.51-0.01-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.070.0330.0039.93-0.03-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.070.0370.5969.630.030.01
UMBCAE0.000.0355.5655.540.000.00
USCP120.000.0371.4368.280.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.070.0311.1118.00-0.05-0.02
UtahP120.070.0363.1659.710.020.01
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0336.8435.57-0.02-0.01
Washington St.P120.070.0347.3741.44-0.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0338.8935.370.00-0.01
WyomingMWC0.000.0361.1156.830.000.00
XavierBE0.000.0385.7180.080.000.02