live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Tulsa

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:73.0
Current RPI:73
Expected SOS:100
Current SOS:100
Current Record:21-12
Expected Record:21-12
Current Conf Record:16-3
Expected Conf Record:16-3
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-2
Current OOC Record:5-9
Expected OOC Record:5-9
Expected OOC RPI:196
Expected OOC SOS:64



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-1273.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tulsa.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Oral Roberts (191.0)SlndH68-74L0%0.0
11-16Missouri St. (85.0)MVCA96-93L0%0.0
11-20Wichita St. (4.0)MVCH54-77L0%0.0
11-23Creighton (10.0)BEA82-72L0%0.0
11-27Indiana St. (71.0)MVCN62-63W100%0.0
11-29TCU (212.0)B12N72-65L0%0.0
11-30Green Bay (58.0)HorzN67-59L0%0.0
12-4Texas Southern (239.0)SWACH98-71W100%0.0
12-10Arkansas Little Rock (186.0)SBH78-64W100%0.0
12-14Oklahoma (26.0)B12A101-91L0%0.0
12-18Grand Canyon (203.0)WACH66-65W100%0.0
12-21TCU (212.0)B12A70-58L0%0.0
12-29Maryland (78.0)ACCA85-74L0%0.0
1-4Cal St. Fullerton (286.0)BWH73-57W100%0.0
1-9Tulane (223.0)CUSAH97-71W100%0.0
1-12Southern Miss (33.0)CUSAH75-71W100%0.0
1-16Charlotte (151.0)CUSAA90-86L0%0.0
1-18Marshall (276.0)CUSAA52-69W100%0.0
1-23Middle Tennessee (64.0)CUSAH58-53W100%0.0
1-25UAB (152.0)CUSAH63-70L0%0.0
2-1North Texas (195.0)CUSAH94-63W100%0.0
2-6Louisiana Tech (62.0)CUSAA66-61L0%0.0
2-8Rice (299.0)CUSAA56-66W100%0.0
2-13East Carolina (216.0)CUSAH76-58W100%0.0
2-15Old Dominion (170.0)CUSAH76-37W100%0.0
2-20Florida Atlantic (270.0)CUSAA52-71W100%0.0
2-22FIU (202.0)CUSAA65-77W100%0.0
2-27UTEP (103.0)CUSAA60-65W100%0.0
3-2UTSA (306.0)CUSAH72-70W100%0.0
3-6North Texas (195.0)CUSAA68-79W100%0.0
3-13Tulane (223.0)CUSAN70-49W100%0.0
3-14Middle Tennessee (64.0)CUSAN76-69W100%0.0
3-15Louisiana Tech (62.0)CUSAN60-69W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tulsa's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Tulsa's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Tulsa.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TulsaCUSA26.0726.0764.6364.637.637.63
Middle TennesseeCUSA3.563.5675.8675.861.841.84
Louisiana TechCUSA3.563.5680.6580.652.182.18
North TexasCUSA3.553.5548.1548.15-0.13-0.13
TulaneCUSA3.533.5353.3353.330.240.24
TCUB123.103.1018.5218.52-1.95-1.95
Southern MissCUSA2.112.1183.3383.331.411.41
Old DominionCUSA2.092.0950.0050.000.000.00
CharlotteCUSA2.062.0653.3353.330.140.14
RiceCUSA2.062.0618.5218.52-1.30-1.30
UTEPCUSA2.042.0470.0070.000.820.82
Florida AtlanticCUSA2.042.0427.5927.59-0.91-0.91
East CarolinaCUSA2.042.0446.4346.43-0.15-0.15
MarshallCUSA2.042.0430.0030.00-0.82-0.82
UABCUSA2.042.0453.5753.570.150.15
UTSACUSA2.012.0123.0823.08-1.08-1.08
FIUCUSA2.012.0148.1548.15-0.07-0.07
OklahomaB121.741.7470.9770.970.730.73
Wichita St.MVC1.691.69100.00100.001.691.69
Missouri St.MVC1.681.6860.0060.000.340.34
Indiana St.MVC1.631.6370.0070.000.650.65
Texas SouthernSWAC1.621.6258.0658.060.260.26
Arkansas Little RockSB1.611.6144.8344.83-0.17-0.17
Grand CanyonWAC1.561.5648.0048.00-0.06-0.06
Oral RobertsSlnd1.561.5642.8642.86-0.22-0.22
MarylandACC1.541.5450.0050.000.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW1.541.5436.6736.67-0.41-0.41
CreightonBE1.521.5278.1278.120.850.85
Green BayHorz1.521.5276.9276.920.820.82
BaylorB120.250.2566.6766.670.080.08
Kansas St.B120.250.2562.5062.500.060.06
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.220.2229.0329.03-0.09-0.09
SouthernSWAC0.210.2155.1755.170.020.02
Texas TechB120.200.2043.7543.75-0.03-0.03
West VirginiaB120.200.2053.1253.120.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.200.2063.6463.640.050.05
Georgia St.SB0.180.1874.1974.190.090.09
TexasB120.180.1869.7069.700.070.07
KansasB120.180.1872.7372.730.080.08
Grambling St.SWAC0.170.1714.8114.81-0.12-0.12
Illinois St.MVC0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.170.1740.6240.62-0.03-0.03
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.170.1725.8125.81-0.08-0.08
EvansvilleMVC0.170.1738.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.170.1735.4835.48-0.05-0.05
Iowa St.B120.150.1578.7978.790.090.09
South AlabamaSB0.150.1528.5728.57-0.06-0.06
Central ArkansasSlnd0.150.1524.0024.00-0.08-0.08
BradleyMVC0.140.1437.5037.50-0.04-0.04
DrakeMVC0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.140.1436.3636.36-0.04-0.04
IdahoWAC0.130.1345.4545.45-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.130.1386.2186.210.100.10
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.130.1353.5753.570.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.130.1393.1093.100.110.11
Texas A&MSEC0.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.120.1225.9325.93-0.06-0.06
Texas St.SB0.120.1220.6920.69-0.07-0.07
Northwestern St.Slnd0.120.1248.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckySB0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.120.1257.1457.140.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.110.1173.5373.530.050.05
SeattleWAC0.110.1139.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.110.1146.1546.15-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.110.1134.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.110.1130.7730.77-0.04-0.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.100.1014.8114.81-0.07-0.07
UICHorz0.100.1013.7913.79-0.07-0.07
TroySB0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
VirginiaACC0.100.1082.3582.350.070.07
UC RiversideBW0.100.1027.5927.59-0.05-0.05
Arkansas St.SB0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
AkronMAC0.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
LongwoodBSth0.100.1014.2914.29-0.07-0.07
Alabama A&MSWAC0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
BelmontOVC0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
Florida St.ACC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Saint LouisA100.100.1080.6580.650.060.06
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.100.1034.6234.62-0.03-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.090.0967.6567.650.030.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
LouisvilleAmer0.080.0885.2985.290.050.05
DukeACC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
BYUWCC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Georgia SouthernSC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.070.0794.1294.120.070.07
North FloridaASun0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
GeorgetownBE0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Miami FLACC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.070.0759.2659.260.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0713.7913.79-0.05-0.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0730.3030.30-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0783.8783.870.050.05
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0732.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
XavierBE0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0663.3363.330.010.01
OaklandHorz0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
LamarSlnd0.060.0610.7110.71-0.04-0.04
New MexicoMWC0.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
HoustonAmer0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
WisconsinB100.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
SMUAmer0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0541.1841.18-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
TempleAmer0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
ElonSC0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
NebraskaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
East Tennessee St.ASun0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
MaineAE0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
MississippiSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Notre DameACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UC IrvineBW0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
DavidsonSC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0513.3313.33-0.03-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
ColgatePat0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
NJITind0.050.0536.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
WashingtonP120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
ButlerBE0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0587.5087.500.030.03
William & MaryCAA0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.030.0370.3770.370.010.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
RutgersAmer0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
VMIBSth0.030.0355.5655.560.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
UCFAmer0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SC0.020.0219.2319.23-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.020.0210.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
ClemsonACC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
DrexelCAA0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
IowaB100.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
IUPUISum0.020.0210.3410.34-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0278.5778.570.010.01
Ohio St.B100.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
Oregon St.P120.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Penn St.B100.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
UNLVMWC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
USCP120.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
MercerASun0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Michigan St.B100.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
StanfordP120.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
Arizona St.P120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
CaliforniaP120.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
RichmondA100.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0287.1087.100.020.02
VCUA100.020.0276.4776.470.010.01