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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.


Tulsa

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:105.7
Current RPI:108
Expected SOS:108
Current SOS:105
Current Record:14-9
Expected Record:18-12
Current Conf Record:7-2
Expected Conf Record:11-5
Probability of Auto Bid:5.88%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-3
Current OOC Record:7-7
Expected OOC Record:7-7
Expected OOC RPI:136
Expected OOC SOS:101



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-967.20.76%
20-1078.55.88%
19-1190.318.59%
18-12101.631.10%
17-13113.627.27%
16-14126.213.24%
15-15140.02.86%
14-16156.60.29%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tulsa.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Arkansas Little Rock (187.7)SBH65-49W100%0.0
11-13Southeastern Louisiana (326.2)SlndH67-52W100%0.0
11-17Western Kentucky (240.2)SBN49-65W100%0.0
11-18Northwestern (66.2)B10N69-65L0%0.0
11-20Saint Joseph's (49.2)A10N79-75L0%0.0
11-22Jackson St. (308.4)SWACA51-57W100%0.0
11-26Missouri St. (82.4)MVCA69-64L0%0.0
11-30Oklahoma St. (120.3)B12A59-56L0%0.0
12-3Arizona St. (241.2)P12H64-67L0%0.0
12-7Wichita St. (17.4)MVCH67-77L0%0.0
12-17Texas Arlington (100.3)SlndH80-75W100%0.0
12-19Creighton (21.0)MVCH64-83L0%0.0
12-28Mercer (98.0)ASunH68-62W100%0.0
12-31Texas Christian (123.7)MWCA66-74W100%0.0
1-4Houston (233.1)CUSAA70-69L0%0.0
1-7Southern Methodist (214.4)CUSAH55-57L0%0.0
1-11Texas El Paso (178.1)CUSAH59-48W100%0.0
1-14East Carolina (158.4)CUSAA67-70W100%0.0
1-18Tulane (174.9)CUSAH60-56W100%0.0
1-21Rice (177.4)CUSAA46-70W100%0.0
1-25Central Florida (72.7)CUSAH66-61W100%0.0
1-28Southern Methodist (214.4)CUSAA60-66W100%0.0
2-4Marshall (61.3)CUSAH79-70W100%0.0
2-8Texas El Paso (178.1)CUSAA0-051%0.1
2-11Houston (233.1)CUSAH0-083%10.3
2-15Southern Mississippi (15.8)CUSAA0-025%-7.4
2-18Rice (177.4)CUSAH0-077%8.2
2-25Tulane (174.9)CUSAA0-047%-0.9
2-29UAB (140.0)CUSAA0-053%0.7
3-3Memphis (25.8)CUSAH0-037%-3.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tulsa's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Tulsa's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Tulsa.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TulsaCUSA26.2626.1657.6657.394.023.87
Southern MethodistCUSA4.814.0936.8436.96-1.27-1.07
HoustonCUSA2.594.0045.0043.55-0.26-0.52
RiceCUSA2.594.0050.0049.170.00-0.07
Texas El PasoCUSA2.593.9845.4544.63-0.24-0.43
TulaneCUSA2.583.9765.0061.040.770.88
UABCUSA0.452.3140.9139.55-0.08-0.48
MemphisCUSA0.362.2969.5771.790.141.00
Southern MississippiCUSA0.322.2885.7182.430.231.48
MarshallCUSA2.382.2561.9061.850.570.53
Central FloridaCUSA2.492.2575.0069.071.250.86
East CarolinaCUSA2.482.2447.0643.45-0.15-0.29
CreightonMVC2.411.8686.9684.901.781.30
Texas ChristianMWC2.281.8460.0051.310.460.05
Missouri St.MVC2.411.8452.1755.720.100.21
Wichita St.MVC2.261.8181.8279.721.441.07
Arkansas Little RockSB2.371.7845.4545.83-0.22-0.15
Western KentuckySB2.331.7536.3635.71-0.63-0.50
Oklahoma St.B122.321.7542.8638.66-0.33-0.40
Jackson St.SWAC2.281.7520.0026.43-1.37-0.83
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd2.271.7229.4130.76-0.94-0.66
Saint Joseph'sA102.271.7260.8761.240.490.39
Texas ArlingtonSlnd2.231.7080.0078.651.340.97
Arizona St.P122.171.7027.2729.07-0.99-0.71
NorthwesternB102.221.6960.0053.600.440.12
MercerASun2.171.6773.9174.111.040.80
SouthernSWAC0.260.2645.0046.13-0.03-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.310.2618.1821.13-0.20-0.15
Texas San AntonioSlnd0.200.2357.1460.750.030.05
Northern IowaMVC0.280.2362.5061.500.070.05
Texas St.Slnd0.160.2122.2227.62-0.09-0.09
Colorado St.MWC0.200.2066.6760.800.070.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.250.2017.3924.41-0.16-0.10
EvansvilleMVC0.190.2045.4544.02-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.280.2062.5062.060.070.05
Southern IllinoisMVC0.230.2034.7832.06-0.07-0.07
LamarSlnd0.220.1861.9067.230.050.06
Northwestern St.Slnd0.200.1855.0054.480.020.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.110.1841.1842.61-0.02-0.03
Louisiana TechWAC0.260.1842.8643.45-0.04-0.02
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.260.1719.0524.61-0.16-0.09
BradleyMVC0.230.1724.0024.86-0.12-0.08
DrakeMVC0.230.1752.1750.090.010.00
Indiana St.MVC0.190.1756.5254.220.020.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.090.1769.5768.900.040.06
Nicholls St.Slnd0.160.1525.0023.75-0.08-0.08
Alabama A&MSWAC0.100.1517.6527.10-0.07-0.07
Alcorn St.SWAC0.160.1516.6723.02-0.10-0.08
GramblingSWAC0.160.1515.0015.73-0.11-0.10
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.160.1547.0650.75-0.010.00
TexasB120.150.1460.8761.370.030.03
North TexasSB0.200.1450.0050.010.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.090.1452.3852.870.000.01
TempleA100.140.1477.2775.060.080.07
Georgia TechACC0.190.1439.1342.12-0.04-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.250.1450.0048.900.00-0.00
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.150.1482.6181.440.100.09
New MexicoMWC0.190.1481.8281.030.120.09
BaylorB120.250.1490.9183.850.210.10
BelmontASun0.140.1469.5773.280.060.07
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.100.1220.0019.96-0.06-0.07
Louisiana MonroeSB0.200.128.708.99-0.17-0.10
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.160.1226.3229.79-0.07-0.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.150.1233.3337.25-0.05-0.03
Texas TechB120.210.1231.8225.98-0.08-0.06
Louisiana St.SEC0.150.1259.0957.280.030.02
Houston BaptistGWC0.150.1225.0028.52-0.07-0.05
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.150.1254.1754.750.010.01
Iowa St.B120.100.1273.9168.430.050.04
OklahomaB120.100.1259.0954.700.020.01
Texas A&MB120.100.1252.3846.150.00-0.01
DenverSB0.140.1170.8372.230.060.05
Middle TennesseeSB0.000.1183.3384.760.000.08
MississippiSEC0.160.1163.6456.710.040.02
TroySB0.050.1128.5730.17-0.02-0.05
Arkansas St.SB0.090.1137.5038.33-0.02-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.200.1180.7780.750.120.07
Murray St.OVC0.050.11100.0094.550.050.10
Kansas St.B120.100.1172.7368.280.040.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.110.0927.7829.87-0.05-0.04
ArkansasSEC0.110.0969.5765.150.040.03
Old DominionCAA0.110.0960.0058.290.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.160.0947.6247.18-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.100.0934.7838.42-0.03-0.02
SyracuseBE0.100.0995.8392.010.090.07
NavyPat0.100.099.5213.19-0.08-0.06
CharlotteA100.110.0950.0049.450.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.110.0973.9168.580.050.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.100.0930.0037.30-0.04-0.02
Florida AtlanticSB0.090.0936.3639.72-0.03-0.02
Florida InternationalSB0.090.0933.3337.16-0.03-0.02
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.090.0980.0078.060.060.05
StetsonASun0.140.0931.8231.31-0.05-0.03
Fresno St.WAC0.150.0939.1344.52-0.03-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.100.0950.0058.160.000.01
San Diego St.MWC0.100.0985.7178.050.070.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.0931.8242.13-0.04-0.01
NebraskaB100.150.0852.3846.680.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.090.0866.6762.650.030.02
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0817.3922.00-0.03-0.05
North FloridaASun0.100.0845.8346.68-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.100.0886.9685.460.080.06
Southern CaliforniaP120.100.0825.0025.13-0.05-0.04
IowaB100.050.0854.1749.440.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.088.7011.67-0.07-0.06
MissouriB120.090.0891.3087.180.080.06
OregonP120.090.0869.5764.530.040.02
LipscombASun0.050.0843.4843.82-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.050.0872.7366.810.020.03
Penn St.B100.100.0841.6738.67-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.140.0865.2263.740.040.02
CampbellBSth0.110.0656.0055.650.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.064.359.66-0.00-0.05
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0619.0522.37-0.03-0.03
OaklandSum0.050.0648.0050.21-0.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.050.0633.3333.82-0.02-0.02
Utah ValleyGWC0.050.0654.5557.690.000.01
WoffordSC0.050.0659.0957.930.010.01
High PointBSth0.100.0631.8232.75-0.04-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.050.0647.3742.16-0.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0642.8641.13-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0682.6177.630.030.03
Georgia SouthernSC0.100.0640.0041.30-0.02-0.01
IUPUISum0.090.0634.7835.50-0.03-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.050.0671.4369.050.020.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0635.0040.78-0.02-0.01
Utah St.WAC0.100.0650.0052.930.000.00
WyomingMWC0.050.0676.1970.730.030.02
HarvardIvy0.100.0690.4887.910.080.04
Rhode IslandA100.050.0620.8320.60-0.03-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.100.0668.1869.100.040.02
CaliforniaP120.100.0675.0074.610.050.03
Chicago St.GWC0.090.064.769.95-0.08-0.05
FurmanSC0.090.0647.6248.83-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.100.0676.1972.910.050.03
SamfordSC0.100.0633.3335.26-0.03-0.02
St. Mary'sWCC0.100.0690.9187.740.080.04
West VirginiaBE0.090.0665.2265.170.030.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0634.7832.08-0.00-0.02
IonaMAAC0.090.0679.1780.100.060.03
LouisvilleBE0.050.0678.2672.660.030.03
ArizonaP120.050.0666.6768.550.020.02
AuburnSEC0.050.0656.5248.810.01-0.00
ClemsonACC0.050.0650.0048.360.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.ASun0.050.0652.3852.860.000.00
IllinoisB100.050.0672.7364.430.020.02
KansasB120.000.0678.2678.390.000.03
MinnesotaB100.050.0669.5761.310.020.01
NevadaWAC0.090.0680.9576.420.060.03
PurdueB100.050.0665.2260.580.020.01
South Carolina UpstateASun0.090.0654.5556.090.010.01
StanfordP120.100.0669.5768.290.040.02
UC RiversideBW0.050.0642.8639.66-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.050.0654.5556.790.000.01
UtahP120.050.0618.1815.01-0.03-0.04
Virginia TechACC0.100.0656.5255.200.010.01
WashingtonP120.050.0669.5766.540.020.02
Washington St.P120.050.0650.0048.170.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.0580.9577.380.000.03
RichmondA100.050.0550.0048.490.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0545.4544.66-0.00-0.01
XavierA100.050.0565.2263.740.010.01
Appalachian St.SC0.060.0335.0039.29-0.02-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0372.2271.970.030.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0334.7838.77-0.02-0.01
NC GreensboroSC0.060.0334.7833.46-0.02-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0338.8943.93-0.01-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0340.9139.56-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0338.1042.78-0.01-0.00
College of CharlestonSC0.050.0358.3359.980.010.01
ConnecticutBE0.050.0368.1863.990.020.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0372.7371.710.020.01
HartfordAE0.050.0317.3920.97-0.03-0.02
AkronMAC0.050.0368.1867.910.020.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0347.6248.82-0.00-0.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0365.0066.700.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0355.0060.330.000.01
CincinnatiBE0.050.0369.5765.470.020.01
DavidsonSC0.000.0376.1976.760.000.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0340.9138.38-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0395.8392.570.040.02
NC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0339.1336.10-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0368.1869.680.020.01
OhioMAC0.050.0381.8277.200.030.02
South FloridaBE0.000.0354.5548.600.00-0.00
St. Peter'sMAAC0.050.0321.7424.58-0.03-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0356.5253.100.010.00
UC IrvineBW0.000.0335.0035.26-0.00-0.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0381.8276.800.030.02
Weber St.BSky0.000.0380.0076.840.000.02
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0356.5257.720.010.00
Wright St.Horz0.050.0341.6740.61-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0345.4545.70-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0327.2735.02-0.02-0.01
DePaulBE0.050.0350.0042.830.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0333.3334.47-0.02-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0354.5554.300.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0345.4541.20-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.000.0375.0075.780.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0371.4373.350.000.01
Montana St.BSky0.050.0345.0041.76-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0337.5041.54-0.01-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0361.9063.520.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0313.6416.14-0.03-0.02
Oregon St.P120.050.0363.6463.160.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.050.0331.8233.83-0.02-0.01
PittsburghBE0.050.0360.8758.160.010.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0373.9175.490.020.01
Stony BrookAE0.050.0366.6768.050.020.01
Wake ForestACC0.050.0347.8343.66-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.050.0375.0073.970.030.01
AmericanPat0.050.0365.2263.790.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0333.3335.97-0.00-0.01
Boston UniversityAE0.050.0348.0051.88-0.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0342.1149.81-0.01-0.00
DaytonA100.050.0360.8760.960.010.01
DrexelCAA0.050.0379.1778.100.030.02
DuquesneA100.050.0359.0956.350.010.00
FordhamA100.050.0340.9134.50-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.050.0370.8368.820.020.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0365.0060.020.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0325.0037.58-0.02-0.01
PennsylvaniaIvy0.050.0354.5556.840.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0368.0070.030.000.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0360.0059.060.000.00
St. LouisA100.000.0377.2777.670.000.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0345.4546.08-0.00-0.00