live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Bracket Busters - Blog


Through games of Mar 17, 2013.


Tulsa

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:127.0
Current RPI:127
Expected SOS:123
Current SOS:123
Current Record:16-15
Expected Record:16-15
Current Conf Record:9-9
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-3
Current OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:122
Expected OOC SOS:153



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-15127.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tulsa.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Northern Kentucky (264.0)ASunN56-76W100%0.0
11-16San Diego (165.0)WCCA51-63W100%0.0
11-17Cal St. Northridge (254.0)BWA92-76L0%0.0
11-21Jackson St. (309.0)SWACH86-66W100%0.0
11-24Stephen F. Austin (65.0)SlndH41-57L0%0.0
11-28Wichita St. (37.0)MVCA86-60L0%0.0
12-5Missouri St. (203.0)MVCH61-42W100%0.0
12-8Texas Christian (238.0)B12H50-49W100%0.0
12-15Arkansas Little Rock (176.0)SBA72-65L0%0.0
12-19Creighton (25.0)MVCA71-54L0%0.0
12-22Oral Roberts (151.0)SlndA68-72W100%0.0
12-29Florida St. (85.0)ACCA82-63L0%0.0
1-2Buffalo (215.0)MACH63-57W100%0.0
1-6Southern Methodist (219.0)CUSAA47-48W100%0.0
1-9Marshall (208.0)CUSAA79-61L0%0.0
1-12Rice (324.0)CUSAH64-51W100%0.0
1-16Texas El Paso (95.0)CUSAH45-42W100%0.0
1-19Tulane (175.0)CUSAA75-72L0%0.0
1-23Houston (197.0)CUSAA72-87W100%0.0
1-26Southern Mississippi (31.0)CUSAH59-62L0%0.0
2-2Memphis (12.0)CUSAA94-64L0%0.0
2-6UAB (144.0)CUSAH63-70L0%0.0
2-9Texas El Paso (95.0)CUSAA70-74W100%0.0
2-16Houston (197.0)CUSAH101-92W100%0.0
2-20East Carolina (100.0)CUSAH63-72L0%0.0
2-23Central Florida (103.0)CUSAA83-75L0%0.0
3-2Tulane (175.0)CUSAH78-66W100%0.0
3-6Southern Methodist (219.0)CUSAH65-71L0%0.0
3-9Rice (324.0)CUSAA71-77W100%0.0
3-14East Carolina (100.0)CUSAH79-72W100%0.0
3-15Memphis (12.0)CUSAH74-85L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tulsa's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Tulsa's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Tulsa.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TulsaCUSA26.1926.1951.7551.750.920.92
HoustonCUSA3.993.9964.2964.291.141.14
Texas El PasoCUSA3.973.9760.0060.000.790.79
Southern MethodistCUSA3.963.9644.8344.83-0.41-0.41
TulaneCUSA3.963.9656.6756.670.530.53
RiceCUSA3.933.9314.8114.81-2.77-2.77
MemphisCUSA3.923.9287.5087.502.942.94
East CarolinaCUSA3.793.7954.1754.170.320.32
Southern MississippiCUSA2.402.4070.9770.971.011.01
UABCUSA2.382.3845.1645.16-0.23-0.23
MarshallCUSA2.302.3036.6736.67-0.61-0.61
Central FloridaCUSA2.252.2560.7160.710.480.48
Missouri St.MVC1.811.8130.0030.00-0.72-0.72
Texas ChristianB121.801.8033.3333.33-0.60-0.60
Oral RobertsSlnd1.801.8056.6756.670.240.24
Wichita St.MVC1.791.7975.7675.760.920.92
CreightonMVC1.761.7678.7978.791.011.01
San DiegoWCC1.751.7545.1645.16-0.17-0.17
Stephen F. AustinSlnd1.691.6984.6284.621.171.17
Cal St. NorthridgeBW1.671.6739.2939.29-0.36-0.36
Northern KentuckyASun1.671.6742.3142.31-0.26-0.26
Arkansas Little RockSB1.661.6650.0050.000.000.00
Florida St.ACC1.641.6453.1253.120.100.10
BuffaloMAC1.641.6438.7138.71-0.37-0.37
Jackson St.SWAC1.611.6139.2939.29-0.35-0.35
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.240.2438.7138.71-0.05-0.05
DrakeMVC0.230.2345.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.200.2054.5554.550.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.190.1954.8454.840.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.170.1743.3343.33-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.170.1754.8454.840.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.170.1754.8454.840.020.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.170.1717.8617.86-0.11-0.11
GramblingSWAC0.160.160.000.00-0.16-0.16
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.160.1645.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.160.1630.0030.00-0.06-0.06
North CarolinaACC0.160.1669.7069.700.060.06
Chicago St.GWC0.160.1625.0025.00-0.08-0.08
OklahomaB120.160.1664.5264.520.050.05
PepperdineWCC0.150.1537.9337.93-0.04-0.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.150.1569.7069.700.060.06
BradleyMVC0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.140.1470.3770.370.060.06
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.140.1437.9337.93-0.03-0.03
TexasB120.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.130.1368.9768.970.050.05
UtahP120.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
NavyPat0.130.1323.3323.33-0.07-0.07
Georgia TechACC0.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.130.1331.2531.25-0.05-0.05
HofstraCAA0.130.1319.3519.35-0.08-0.08
Brigham YoungWCC0.130.1364.5264.520.040.04
St. Mary'sWCC0.130.1381.2581.250.080.08
NebraskaB100.120.1245.4545.45-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.120.1272.7372.730.060.06
ClemsonACC0.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
CharlotteA100.110.1165.6265.620.040.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.110.1139.2939.29-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.110.119.689.68-0.09-0.09
McNeese St.Slnd0.110.1139.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.110.1129.0329.03-0.05-0.05
Texas TechB120.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
Florida InternationalSB0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.110.1128.1228.12-0.05-0.05
LipscombASun0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
Houston BaptistGWC0.110.1139.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Middle TennesseeSB0.110.1184.8584.850.070.07
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
North TexasSB0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
HarvardIvy0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.100.1014.8114.81-0.07-0.07
South AlabamaSB0.100.1057.1457.140.010.01
ArizonaP120.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
StetsonASun0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.CAA0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
MercerASun0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
SienaMAAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
PacificBW0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
TempleA100.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
UC IrvineBW0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
Texas St.WAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
West VirginiaB120.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechWAC0.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
TroySB0.080.0836.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckySB0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
Miami FLACC0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
Kent St.MAC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
AkronMAC0.070.0780.6580.650.050.05
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
MinnesotaB100.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Virginia CommonwealthA100.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Appalachian St.SC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
MassachusettsA100.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
NC GreensboroSC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
East Tennessee St.ASun0.060.0629.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0610.0010.00-0.05-0.05
South Carolina UpstateASun0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
HawaiiBW0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Long IslandNEC0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
New Orleansind0.060.0618.1818.18-0.04-0.04
South FloridaBE0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
BelmontOVC0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
San Jose St.WAC0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Washington St.P120.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
CincinnatiBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Florida AtlanticSB0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
Iowa St.B120.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
KansasB120.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
Kansas St.B120.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Arizona St.P120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.050.0593.7593.750.040.04
IdahoWAC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
OregonP120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
PortlandWCC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
MarylandACC0.050.0564.7164.710.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
VirginiaACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
LouisvilleBE0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
Loyola MDMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
SamfordSC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
XavierA100.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCAA0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
SeattleWAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
WashingtonP120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
NC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
VillanovaBE0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
DaytonA100.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
DenverWAC0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
LibertyBSth0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.030.0379.3179.310.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Oregon St.P120.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.030.0359.2659.260.000.00
RutgersBE0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0371.4371.430.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
YaleIvy0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
MaineAE0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.020.0265.5265.520.010.01
CaliforniaP120.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
DePaulBE0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
IowaB100.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.020.0267.6567.650.010.01