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Through games of Nov 25, 2014.


Tulsa

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:85.1
Current RPI:256
Expected SOS:84
Current SOS:331
Current Record:3-1
Expected Record:17-11
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-2
Current OOC Record:3-1
Expected OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC RPI:97
Expected OOC SOS:123



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-310.00.02%
24-49.30.03%
23-516.40.20%
22-621.00.90%
21-727.82.59%
20-837.35.61%
19-948.510.06%
18-1061.715.43%
17-1175.817.41%
16-1292.117.38%
15-13109.113.12%
14-14125.68.87%
13-15143.94.92%
12-16163.52.28%
11-17181.70.84%
10-18205.50.22%
9-19219.70.09%
8-20239.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tulsa.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Oral Roberts (238.3)SumA77-68L0%0.0
11-17Louisiana Lafayette (185.7)SBH64-53W100%0.0
11-19Abilene Christian (312.7)SlndH65-39W100%0.0
11-24Auburn (185.4)SECN53-35W100%0.0
11-29Wichita St. (16.3)MVCA0-016%-12.1
12-3Creighton (78.1)BEH0-056%1.9
12-7Arkansas Little Rock (186.4)SBA0-067%5.3
12-13Oklahoma (66.6)B12H0-049%-0.4
12-17Missouri St. (140.7)MVCH0-074%7.8
12-22Incarnate Word (203.4)SlndH0-088%13.9
12-31UCF (187.3)AmerA0-060%3.0
1-4Houston (134.2)AmerH0-071%6.6
1-10Temple (133.4)AmerA0-052%0.7
1-13Connecticut (24.9)AmerH0-042%-2.4
1-17South Florida (116.3)AmerA0-049%-0.4
1-21Memphis (59.7)AmerH0-051%0.4
1-24East Carolina (234.2)AmerA0-070%6.4
1-27Tulane (236.1)AmerA0-068%5.8
1-31South Florida (116.3)AmerH0-071%6.8
2-5Houston (134.2)AmerA0-048%-0.6
2-7SMU (36.8)AmerH0-045%-1.4
2-12Connecticut (24.9)AmerA0-021%-9.6
2-18East Carolina (234.2)AmerH0-087%13.6
2-22Temple (133.4)AmerH0-074%7.9
2-25Tulane (236.1)AmerH0-086%12.9
2-28Memphis (59.7)AmerA0-029%-6.8
3-4Cincinnati (75.6)AmerH0-063%4.1
3-8SMU (36.8)AmerA0-024%-8.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tulsa's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Tulsa's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Tulsa.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TulsaAmer32.8126.3678.5758.1918.754.32
MemphisAmer0.004.4950.0067.900.001.61
HoustonAmer0.004.4666.6761.820.001.05
South FloridaAmer0.004.4675.0055.280.000.47
ConnecticutAmer0.004.4675.0070.440.001.82
TempleAmer0.004.4360.0050.850.000.07
SMUAmer0.004.4240.0066.63-0.001.47
TulaneAmer0.004.4266.6739.590.00-0.92
East CarolinaAmer0.004.4233.3334.80-0.00-1.34
CincinnatiAmer0.002.76100.0059.910.000.55
UCFAmer0.002.76100.0049.220.00-0.04
Oral RobertsSum14.061.980.0034.17-14.06-0.63
Missouri St.MVC0.001.9550.0052.860.000.11
Abilene ChristianSlnd12.501.920.0032.96-12.50-0.66
Wichita St.MVC0.001.91100.0083.930.001.30
Louisiana LafayetteSB15.621.9133.3353.64-5.210.14
Arkansas Little RockSB0.001.8866.6752.240.000.08
Incarnate WordSlnd0.001.85100.0055.030.000.19
OklahomaB120.001.8566.6757.060.000.26
AuburnSEC14.061.8266.6736.764.69-0.48
CreightonBE0.001.82100.0061.140.000.41
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.290.0028.11-0.00-0.13
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.2350.0041.110.00-0.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.2250.0050.520.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.200.0025.45-0.00-0.10
LamarSlnd0.000.2025.0037.60-0.00-0.05
BradleyMVC0.000.1950.0030.030.00-0.08
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.170.0067.43-0.000.06
DetroitHorz0.000.1660.0059.230.000.03
AlabamaSEC0.000.1580.0058.990.000.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1520.0043.52-0.00-0.02
Seton HallBE0.000.15100.0065.620.000.05
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.1433.3349.98-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.130.0047.30-0.00-0.01
DrakeMVC0.000.1325.0027.00-0.00-0.06
EvansvilleMVC0.000.1366.6762.900.000.03
Illinois St.MVC0.000.1350.0065.470.000.04
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1375.0044.920.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.13100.0073.990.000.06
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1340.0047.10-0.00-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.130.0023.12-0.00-0.07
Western IllinoisSum0.000.1325.0025.51-0.00-0.06
Texas TechB120.000.1375.0045.460.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.1350.0025.530.00-0.06
Arkansas St.SB0.000.130.0034.32-0.00-0.04
Georgia St.SB0.000.1350.0067.050.000.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.1350.0064.410.000.04
South AlabamaSB0.000.130.0038.65-0.00-0.03
Texas St.SB0.000.1366.6746.170.00-0.01
TroySB0.000.130.0042.64-0.00-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.1360.0051.970.000.01
MissouriSEC1.560.1340.0036.72-0.31-0.03
BaylorB120.000.13100.0070.500.000.05
Oklahoma St.B120.000.13100.0055.110.000.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.120.0030.42-0.00-0.05
TexasB120.000.12100.0080.120.000.07
West VirginiaB120.000.12100.0070.280.000.05
GonzagaWCC0.000.12100.0085.190.000.09
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.120.0017.79-0.00-0.08
KansasB120.000.1266.6760.800.000.03
St. John'sBE0.000.12100.0052.030.000.00
XavierBE0.000.12100.0079.400.000.07
DukeACC0.000.12100.0084.950.000.08
VillanovaBE0.000.12100.0078.020.000.07
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.110.0031.72-0.00-0.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.1050.0065.510.000.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.100.0046.74-0.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.1075.0053.250.000.01
South DakotaSum0.000.100.0038.43-0.00-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.100.0038.35-0.00-0.02
Green BayHorz0.000.1066.6769.740.000.04
Boise St.MWC0.000.0980.0063.110.000.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.090.0035.72-0.00-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0920.0031.41-0.00-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.000.0966.6754.040.000.01
WashingtonP120.000.09100.0055.960.000.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.090.0034.82-0.00-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.000.09100.0081.020.000.06
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.09100.0047.350.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.090.0038.95-0.00-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0940.0039.52-0.00-0.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.09100.0030.140.00-0.04
FloridaSEC0.000.0966.6771.550.000.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0980.0070.940.000.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.09100.0061.980.000.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0740.0047.31-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.070.0036.60-0.00-0.02
UMKCWAC0.000.0725.0046.58-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.000.0766.6766.590.000.02
IPFWSum0.000.0766.6761.780.000.02
IUPUISum0.000.0740.0031.23-0.00-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0750.0049.860.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0740.0067.55-0.000.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0750.0046.130.00-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0733.3353.25-0.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.0625.0054.27-0.000.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0021.34-0.00-0.04
Fresno St.MWC0.000.060.0025.33-0.00-0.03
Iowa St.B120.000.0675.0063.470.000.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.0675.0047.770.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.000.0660.0057.210.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.06100.0069.870.000.03
TCUB120.000.06100.0057.870.000.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0633.3350.48-0.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.060.0028.01-0.00-0.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0666.6747.140.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz3.120.0625.0037.50-1.56-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0616.6731.76-0.00-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0675.0073.980.000.03
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0675.0055.820.000.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0666.6774.280.000.03
IndianaB100.000.0680.0058.080.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0625.0031.38-0.00-0.02
LSUSEC0.000.0660.0056.190.000.01
MichiganB100.000.0675.0066.400.000.02
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0650.0053.310.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.060.0039.00-0.00-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0633.3368.48-0.000.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.060.0040.78-0.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0633.3330.02-0.00-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0640.0033.07-0.00-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0035.37-0.00-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0666.6744.670.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0675.0067.070.000.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.060.0057.70-0.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0660.0047.180.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.000.06100.0067.780.000.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0666.6749.540.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.000.0675.0052.730.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.06100.0062.250.000.01
BryantNEC0.000.0650.0055.150.000.01
ButlerBE0.000.06100.0058.780.000.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0640.0052.47-0.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0675.0064.500.000.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0027.54-0.00-0.03
DaytonA100.000.0675.0071.680.000.03
DePaulBE0.000.06100.0036.220.00-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.06100.0057.240.000.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0660.0066.760.000.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.060.0024.22-0.00-0.03
MarquetteBE0.000.0650.0037.650.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.060.0064.97-0.000.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.06100.0069.080.000.02
StanfordP120.000.0680.0070.420.000.02
UABCUSA0.000.0633.3344.17-0.00-0.01
YaleIvy0.000.0675.0065.600.000.02
AmericanPat0.000.0660.0057.160.000.01
DelawareCAA0.000.060.0018.08-0.00-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0633.3346.11-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.000.06100.0056.940.000.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.060.0044.90-0.00-0.01
PennIvy0.000.060.0025.91-0.00-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0660.0037.460.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0680.0058.000.000.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0675.0050.770.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0425.0039.42-0.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.04100.0070.870.000.02
Colorado St.MWC0.000.03100.0065.600.000.01
DuquesneA103.120.03100.0055.473.120.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0051.400.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0333.3326.91-0.00-0.02
Oregon St.P121.560.0366.6744.530.52-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0350.0046.060.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0375.0047.410.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0325.0045.33-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.030.0029.35-0.00-0.01
UtahP120.000.0366.6772.710.000.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0320.0030.80-0.00-0.01
BYUWCC0.000.0366.6769.270.000.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0340.0044.83-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.000.0350.0053.610.000.00
George MasonA100.000.0320.0022.51-0.00-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.0375.0064.740.000.01
StetsonASun0.000.030.0032.66-0.00-0.01
UCLAP120.000.03100.0065.220.000.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0360.0052.120.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.030.0066.25-0.000.01
ColoradoP121.560.0375.0059.500.780.01
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0089.550.000.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0340.0050.32-0.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0043.100.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.03100.0052.850.000.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0333.3354.56-0.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0019.97-0.00-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0320.0053.43-0.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0366.6739.910.00-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0071.500.000.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.03100.0087.570.000.02
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0325.0044.79-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.0350.0066.080.000.01
VCUA100.000.0380.0073.820.000.01
WagnerNEC0.000.030.0043.63-0.00-0.00