live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Jan 26, 2015.


Tulsa

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:44.4
Current RPI:47
Expected SOS:92
Current SOS:112
Current Record:14-4
Expected Record:21-8
Current Conf Record:7-0
Expected Conf Record:14-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-1
Current OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:105
Expected OOC SOS:119



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-416.60.31%
24-521.12.74%
23-626.910.02%
22-733.622.35%
21-841.927.54%
20-951.721.39%
19-1064.510.93%
18-1178.83.83%
17-1294.70.77%
16-13106.60.11%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tulsa.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Oral Roberts (186.0)SumA77-68L0%0.0
11-17Louisiana Lafayette (172.4)SBH64-53W100%0.0
11-19Abilene Christian (298.7)SlndH65-39W100%0.0
11-24Auburn (156.9)SECN53-35W100%0.0
11-26Oklahoma St. (46.4)B12N58-73L0%0.0
11-29Wichita St. (13.6)MVCA75-55L0%0.0
12-3Creighton (166.4)BEH77-64W100%0.0
12-7Arkansas Little Rock (286.4)SBA73-78W100%0.0
12-13Oklahoma (27.2)B12H68-87L0%0.0
12-17Missouri St. (218.2)MVCH74-70W100%0.0
12-22Incarnate Word (133.8)SlndH76-47W100%0.0
12-31UCF (228.3)AmerA54-56W100%0.0
1-4Houston (266.1)AmerH72-54W100%0.0
1-10Temple (67.4)AmerA56-63W100%0.0
1-13Connecticut (62.3)AmerH66-58W100%0.0
1-17South Florida (231.5)AmerA58-75W100%0.0
1-21Memphis (71.6)AmerH73-55W100%0.0
1-24East Carolina (259.7)AmerA64-66W100%0.0
1-27Tulane (160.4)AmerA0-067%4.8
1-31South Florida (231.5)AmerH0-092%15.8
2-5Houston (266.1)AmerA0-080%9.2
2-7SMU (18.6)AmerH0-046%-1.1
2-12Connecticut (62.3)AmerA0-039%-3.0
2-18East Carolina (259.7)AmerH0-093%16.2
2-22Temple (67.4)AmerH0-073%6.7
2-25Tulane (160.4)AmerH0-085%11.6
2-28Memphis (71.6)AmerA0-043%-2.0
3-4Cincinnati (27.8)AmerH0-053%0.9
3-8SMU (18.6)AmerA0-024%-7.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tulsa's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Tulsa's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Tulsa.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TulsaAmer26.4026.3278.0572.2814.8111.73
MemphisAmer3.224.3666.6763.811.071.20
HoustonAmer3.164.2938.8937.25-0.70-1.09
South FloridaAmer3.084.2933.3334.20-1.03-1.36
ConnecticutAmer3.074.2964.7162.610.901.08
TempleAmer3.014.2768.4265.601.111.33
East CarolinaAmer2.924.2537.5033.75-0.73-1.38
SMUAmer0.454.2578.9578.470.262.42
TulaneAmer0.524.2563.1656.050.140.51
CincinnatiAmer0.452.6573.6873.780.211.26
UCFAmer3.072.6547.0642.59-0.18-0.39
Oral RobertsSum3.161.9044.4447.63-0.35-0.09
Missouri St.MVC3.071.8735.2935.98-0.90-0.53
Abilene ChristianSlnd2.971.8537.5033.69-0.74-0.60
Louisiana LafayetteSB3.011.8450.0056.520.000.24
OklahomaB122.991.8461.1163.170.670.49
Wichita St.MVC2.931.8488.8987.442.281.38
Oklahoma St.B122.921.8464.7156.940.860.25
Arkansas Little RockSB2.941.8235.2936.88-0.86-0.48
Incarnate WordSlnd2.861.7963.6467.980.780.64
AuburnSEC2.861.7552.9441.430.17-0.30
CreightonBE2.851.7545.0039.90-0.29-0.35
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.420.3022.2240.58-0.23-0.06
Texas TechB120.300.2355.0041.210.03-0.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.150.2161.1158.490.030.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.230.2171.4369.500.100.08
BradleyMVC0.300.2130.0031.32-0.12-0.08
LamarSlnd0.000.1937.5037.63-0.00-0.05
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.1938.4633.54-0.02-0.06
Indiana St.MVC0.150.1847.3744.57-0.01-0.02
TexasB120.230.1770.0067.370.090.06
West VirginiaB120.150.1784.2175.010.100.09
BaylorB120.220.1777.7871.500.120.07
KansasB120.220.1784.2176.020.150.09
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.150.1682.3584.870.100.11
DetroitHorz0.300.1540.0042.45-0.06-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.150.1525.0037.78-0.08-0.04
MissouriSEC0.300.1533.3330.04-0.10-0.06
AlabamaSEC0.220.1466.6760.600.070.03
Seton HallBE0.210.1468.4260.870.080.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.1352.9447.070.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.350.1340.0048.18-0.07-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.220.120.003.50-0.22-0.12
Appalachian St.SB0.160.1244.4441.02-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.080.1244.4443.27-0.01-0.02
DrakeMVC0.220.1215.7917.73-0.15-0.08
EvansvilleMVC0.150.1273.6869.260.070.05
Georgia St.SB0.240.1263.1666.580.060.04
Illinois St.MVC0.150.1257.8959.490.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.160.1250.0051.400.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.080.1290.0084.520.060.08
South AlabamaSB0.240.1222.2226.61-0.13-0.06
TroySB0.160.1231.2531.53-0.06-0.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.1261.1159.790.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.150.1240.0037.57-0.03-0.03
Texas St.SB0.080.1243.7545.81-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.310.1226.3229.12-0.15-0.05
Western IllinoisSum0.150.1231.2527.84-0.05-0.05
Central ConnecticutNEC0.160.1214.2915.34-0.11-0.08
Iowa St.B120.080.1278.9569.690.040.05
Kansas St.B120.230.1260.0047.710.05-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.1210.0015.21-0.06-0.08
TCUB120.000.1273.6861.650.000.03
GonzagaWCC0.000.1295.0094.570.000.10
St. John'sBE0.000.1266.6760.500.000.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.220.1157.8956.150.030.01
DukeACC0.150.1189.4783.760.120.08
XavierBE0.080.1165.0063.140.020.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.140.1172.2277.830.060.06
VillanovaBE0.140.1190.0084.390.110.08
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.1014.2917.07-0.06-0.07
McNeese St.Slnd0.280.1021.4339.82-0.16-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.200.1070.5975.570.080.05
NebraskaB100.180.0963.1651.390.050.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.160.0942.8642.72-0.02-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.080.0915.7918.55-0.05-0.06
South DakotaSum0.070.0945.0047.77-0.01-0.00
Oregon St.P120.230.0972.2262.200.100.02
Green BayHorz0.160.0978.9577.920.090.05
HawaiiBW0.150.0963.1657.370.040.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.150.0928.5736.64-0.07-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.150.0966.6767.930.050.03
Florida St.ACC0.150.0950.0044.160.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.150.0928.5732.31-0.07-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.000.0978.9572.140.000.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0944.4434.93-0.01-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0945.0057.03-0.010.01
WashingtonP120.070.0973.6865.210.030.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.140.0957.8956.170.020.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.150.0973.6872.660.070.04
USC UpstateASun0.150.0961.1162.850.030.02
FloridaSEC0.150.0952.6353.730.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.150.0921.0533.20-0.09-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0961.9060.140.020.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.140.0927.7828.14-0.06-0.04
MississippiSEC0.070.0863.1663.590.020.02
ButlerBE0.140.0871.4370.490.060.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.200.0747.3750.47-0.010.00
New OrleansSlnd0.120.0723.0835.96-0.06-0.02
UMKCWAC0.190.0731.5838.36-0.07-0.02
DenverSum0.070.0645.0047.77-0.01-0.00
IPFWSum0.070.0635.2937.89-0.02-0.01
IUPUISum0.070.0638.1040.90-0.02-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0638.8940.89-0.02-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0661.1160.430.020.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0665.0068.160.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.150.0650.0062.020.000.01
Weber St.BSky0.150.0635.2941.28-0.04-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0670.5973.690.000.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.060.004.64-0.08-0.05
Fresno St.MWC0.080.0644.4437.92-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.000.0675.0068.440.000.02
James MadisonCAA0.080.0657.1458.270.010.01
MichiganB100.000.0657.8950.390.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0652.3854.020.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.080.0680.9576.270.050.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0616.6725.22-0.00-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.000.0631.5844.76-0.00-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0642.1145.63-0.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0647.0654.42-0.000.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.080.0637.5045.87-0.02-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0616.6722.10-0.05-0.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0655.5654.970.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0645.0040.37-0.00-0.01
WyomingMWC0.000.0683.3376.440.000.03
South CarolinaSEC0.150.0652.9453.080.010.00
North TexasCUSA0.140.0635.2933.20-0.04-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0675.0070.890.040.02
BryantNEC0.080.0650.0049.250.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.080.0628.5733.12-0.03-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.080.0653.3356.270.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0610.5319.74-0.06-0.03
DaytonA100.080.0684.2179.140.050.03
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0672.2265.290.000.02
HarvardIvy0.070.0664.2965.370.020.02
HofstraCAA0.070.0666.6770.420.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0621.0521.30-0.04-0.03
LSUSEC0.000.0678.9569.080.000.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0620.0027.23-0.04-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.070.0678.9580.780.040.04
RiceCUSA0.000.0626.6730.25-0.00-0.02
StanfordP120.080.0673.6869.450.040.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0672.2263.570.000.02
UABCUSA0.070.0647.3749.78-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.080.0664.7164.070.020.02
AmericanPat0.070.0655.0056.700.010.01
DelawareCAA0.070.0621.0522.39-0.04-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0644.4449.88-0.01-0.00
DePaulBE0.070.0652.3843.050.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.070.0673.6868.210.030.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0635.0031.74-0.00-0.02
La SalleA100.070.0652.6352.940.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.070.0636.8438.57-0.02-0.01
MarquetteBE0.070.0652.6346.710.00-0.00
PennIvy0.070.0633.3334.03-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.130.0675.0065.760.070.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0644.4439.84-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.070.0640.0037.69-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.070.0652.6354.300.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.120.0443.7542.93-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.120.0463.1668.410.030.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0321.0530.50-0.04-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0389.4783.120.060.02
DavidsonA100.080.0376.4776.600.040.02
DuquesneA100.080.0329.4127.39-0.03-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0353.3353.310.010.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.080.0364.7161.590.020.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0338.8940.47-0.02-0.01
StetsonASun0.080.0311.7619.41-0.06-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.080.0338.8936.56-0.02-0.01
Washington St.P120.080.0347.3738.15-0.00-0.01
BYUWCC0.080.0365.0067.610.020.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.080.0325.0028.11-0.04-0.01
George WashingtonA100.070.0380.0071.460.040.01
Kent St.MAC0.080.0372.2264.220.030.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.070.0325.0025.40-0.04-0.01
MarylandB100.080.0385.7177.400.060.02
Saint LouisA100.070.0344.4437.39-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.070.0383.3383.680.050.02
ClemsonACC0.080.0357.8948.680.01-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.080.0368.7569.240.030.01
ColoradoP120.080.0352.6351.180.000.00
George MasonA100.070.0329.4131.72-0.03-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0098.470.000.03
TennesseeSEC0.000.0366.6754.640.000.00
UCLAP120.070.0355.0052.110.010.00
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0355.5654.010.010.00
WinthropBSth0.080.0343.7548.08-0.01-0.00
WisconsinB100.070.0390.0087.160.060.02
Chicago St.WAC0.070.035.5611.56-0.06-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0335.0043.91-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0378.9574.020.040.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0373.6875.860.000.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0350.0055.540.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.0360.0065.760.000.01
VCUA100.000.0384.2180.650.000.02
WagnerNEC0.000.0327.7832.08-0.00-0.01