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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Tulsa

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:45.0
Current RPI:45
Expected SOS:90
Current SOS:90
Current Record:22-9
Expected Record:22-9
Current Conf Record:15-5
Expected Conf Record:15-5
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-0
Current OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:109
Expected OOC SOS:127



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-945.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tulsa.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Oral Roberts (163.0)SumA77-68L0%0.0
11-17Louisiana Lafayette (142.0)SBH64-53W100%0.0
11-19Abilene Christian (324.0)SlndH65-39W100%0.0
11-24Auburn (129.0)SECN53-35W100%0.0
11-26Oklahoma St. (49.0)B12N58-73L0%0.0
11-29Wichita St. (17.0)MVCA75-55L0%0.0
12-3Creighton (151.0)BEH77-64W100%0.0
12-7Arkansas Little Rock (276.0)SBA73-78W100%0.0
12-13Oklahoma (18.0)B12H68-87L0%0.0
12-17Missouri St. (246.0)MVCH74-70W100%0.0
12-22Incarnate Word (160.0)SlndH76-47W100%0.0
12-31UCF (257.0)AmerA54-56W100%0.0
1-4Houston (239.0)AmerH72-54W100%0.0
1-10Temple (34.0)AmerA56-63W100%0.0
1-13Connecticut (77.0)AmerH66-58W100%0.0
1-17South Florida (273.0)AmerA58-75W100%0.0
1-21Memphis (83.0)AmerH73-55W100%0.0
1-24East Carolina (219.0)AmerA64-66W100%0.0
1-27Tulane (214.0)AmerA55-62W100%0.0
1-31South Florida (273.0)AmerH78-71W100%0.0
2-5Houston (239.0)AmerA44-57W100%0.0
2-7SMU (12.0)AmerH57-68L0%0.0
2-12Connecticut (77.0)AmerA70-45L0%0.0
2-18East Carolina (219.0)AmerH69-58W100%0.0
2-22Temple (34.0)AmerH55-39W100%0.0
2-25Tulane (214.0)AmerH76-55W100%0.0
2-28Memphis (83.0)AmerA72-74W100%0.0
3-4Cincinnati (37.0)AmerH47-56L0%0.0
3-8SMU (12.0)AmerA67-62L0%0.0
3-13Houston (239.0)AmerN59-51W100%0.0
3-14Connecticut (77.0)AmerA47-42L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tulsa's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Tulsa's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Tulsa.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TulsaAmer26.4126.4171.3371.3311.2611.26
ConnecticutAmer5.745.7458.0658.060.930.93
HoustonAmer5.665.6644.8344.83-0.59-0.59
SMUAmer4.214.2180.0080.002.522.52
MemphisAmer4.174.1760.0060.000.830.83
South FloridaAmer4.134.1327.5927.59-1.85-1.85
TempleAmer4.124.1274.1974.191.991.99
East CarolinaAmer4.114.1141.3841.38-0.71-0.71
TulaneAmer4.114.1150.0050.000.000.00
CincinnatiAmer2.602.6067.7467.740.920.92
UCFAmer2.552.5539.2939.29-0.55-0.55
Oral RobertsSum1.771.7751.7251.720.060.06
Abilene ChristianSlnd1.761.7625.9325.93-0.85-0.85
Missouri St.MVC1.751.7532.1432.14-0.62-0.62
OklahomaB121.741.7467.7467.740.620.62
Oklahoma St.B121.741.7455.1755.170.180.18
Wichita St.MVC1.721.7286.6786.671.261.26
Louisiana LafayetteSB1.721.7258.6258.620.300.30
Arkansas Little RockSB1.691.6941.3841.38-0.29-0.29
Incarnate WordSlnd1.671.6760.8760.870.360.36
AuburnSEC1.641.6442.4242.42-0.25-0.25
CreightonBE1.641.6443.7543.75-0.20-0.20
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.280.2825.8125.81-0.13-0.13
Texas TechB120.230.2340.6240.62-0.04-0.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.200.2033.3333.33-0.07-0.07
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.190.1956.6756.670.030.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.190.1967.8667.860.070.07
BradleyMVC0.180.1825.0025.00-0.09-0.09
TexasB120.180.1860.6160.610.040.04
West VirginiaB120.180.1871.8871.880.080.08
LamarSlnd0.180.1842.3142.31-0.03-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.160.1634.3834.38-0.05-0.05
Indiana St.MVC0.160.1646.6746.67-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.150.1571.8871.880.070.07
KansasB120.150.1576.4776.470.080.08
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.150.1586.6786.670.110.11
Georgia St.SB0.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
South AlabamaSB0.130.1332.2632.26-0.05-0.05
Texas St.SB0.130.1339.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.130.1362.5062.500.030.03
DetroitHorz0.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.130.1334.3834.38-0.04-0.04
Iowa St.B120.130.1375.7675.760.070.07
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.130.1318.7518.75-0.08-0.08
Seton HallBE0.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
MissouriSEC0.130.1325.8125.81-0.06-0.06
AlabamaSEC0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.120.1216.1316.13-0.08-0.08
DukeACC0.120.1287.8887.880.090.09
Northwestern St.Slnd0.110.1155.5655.560.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.110.116.906.90-0.10-0.10
DrakeMVC0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
EvansvilleMVC0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.110.1190.9190.910.090.09
Appalachian St.SB0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.110.1135.7135.71-0.03-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.110.1158.6258.620.020.02
TroySB0.110.1129.6329.63-0.04-0.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.1037.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Boise St.MWC0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.100.1023.0823.08-0.06-0.06
St. John'sBE0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.100.1093.9493.940.090.09
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.100.1052.9452.940.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.100.1075.8675.860.050.05
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
XavierBE0.100.1061.7661.760.020.02
VillanovaBE0.100.1094.1294.120.090.09
Nicholls St.Slnd0.100.1026.9226.92-0.04-0.04
FloridaSEC0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.090.0972.4172.410.040.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.090.0940.7440.74-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0870.0070.000.030.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
Florida St.ACC0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
WashingtonP120.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Green BayHorz0.080.0873.3373.330.040.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
USC UpstateASun0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
South DakotaSum0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Oregon St.P120.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
HarvardIvy0.080.0874.0774.070.040.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Murray St.OVC0.080.0883.3383.330.050.05
RiceCUSA0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0764.7164.710.020.02
ButlerBE0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
MississippiSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
DePaulBE0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
BryantNEC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0727.2727.27-0.03-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.070.0744.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
DaytonA100.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
StanfordP120.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
YaleIvy0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
LSUSEC0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0630.7730.77-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
SouthernSWAC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Weber St.BSky0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.056.906.90-0.04-0.04
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
UABCUSA0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
IndianaB100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
AmericanPat0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
DelawareCAA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
KentuckySEC0.050.05100.00100.000.050.05
PrincetonIvy0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
DuquesneA100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
DavidsonA100.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Washington St.P120.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
MarylandB100.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
George WashingtonA100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
George MasonA100.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
UCLAP120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
VCUA100.030.0374.2974.290.010.01
WagnerNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
ClemsonACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
ColoradoP120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
WinthropBSth0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00