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Through games of Nov 20, 2014.


Tulsa

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:84.9
Current RPI:263
Expected SOS:72
Current SOS:285
Current Record:2-1
Expected Record:16-12
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-1
Current OOC Record:2-1
Expected OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC RPI:92
Expected OOC SOS:83



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-414.00.02%
23-59.70.12%
22-614.10.51%
21-721.71.52%
20-829.83.63%
19-939.67.30%
18-1051.212.79%
17-1165.115.52%
16-1280.717.49%
15-1398.215.82%
14-14118.412.14%
13-15137.17.37%
12-16159.03.57%
11-17178.01.55%
10-18195.70.45%
9-19217.50.19%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tulsa.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Oral Roberts (115.8)SumA77-68L0%0.0
11-17Louisiana Lafayette (147.7)SBH64-53W100%0.0
11-19Abilene Christian (321.8)SlndH65-39W100%0.0
11-24Auburn (176.7)SECN0-067%5.1
11-29Wichita St. (15.8)MVCA0-016%-12.0
12-3Creighton (97.2)BEH0-061%3.5
12-7Arkansas Little Rock (192.0)SBA0-065%4.6
12-13Oklahoma (48.1)B12H0-046%-1.2
12-17Missouri St. (113.7)MVCH0-070%6.2
12-22Incarnate Word (262.7)SlndH0-092%16.9
12-31UCF (192.9)AmerA0-060%3.1
1-4Houston (109.7)AmerH0-064%4.2
1-10Temple (99.1)AmerA0-044%-1.9
1-13Connecticut (26.2)AmerH0-043%-2.1
1-17South Florida (173.3)AmerA0-059%2.8
1-21Memphis (60.1)AmerH0-052%0.6
1-24East Carolina (219.8)AmerA0-066%5.0
1-27Tulane (256.7)AmerA0-070%6.4
1-31South Florida (173.3)AmerH0-080%10.0
2-5Houston (109.7)AmerA0-040%-2.9
2-7SMU (28.0)AmerH0-043%-2.1
2-12Connecticut (26.2)AmerA0-022%-9.2
2-18East Carolina (219.8)AmerH0-084%12.1
2-22Temple (99.1)AmerH0-067%5.3
2-25Tulane (256.7)AmerH0-087%13.6
2-28Memphis (60.1)AmerA0-029%-6.6
3-4Cincinnati (45.1)AmerH0-053%0.9
3-8SMU (28.0)AmerA0-022%-9.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tulsa's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Tulsa's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Tulsa.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TulsaAmer45.8326.3866.6755.7615.283.04
MemphisAmer0.004.510.0065.85-0.001.43
South FloridaAmer0.004.47100.0044.980.00-0.45
HoustonAmer0.004.47100.0067.000.001.52
ConnecticutAmer0.004.46100.0070.760.001.85
TempleAmer0.004.44100.0058.040.000.71
SMUAmer0.004.4333.3369.59-0.001.74
TulaneAmer0.004.4350.0036.410.00-1.20
East CarolinaAmer0.004.430.0035.66-0.00-1.27
CincinnatiAmer0.002.78100.0066.480.000.92
UCFAmer0.002.77100.0045.950.00-0.22
Oral RobertsSum16.671.980.0054.19-16.670.17
Missouri St.MVC0.001.95100.0057.370.000.29
Abilene ChristianSlnd16.671.920.0032.24-16.67-0.68
Louisiana LafayetteSB16.671.920.0061.14-16.670.43
Wichita St.MVC0.001.91100.0084.330.001.31
Arkansas Little RockSB0.001.880.0050.87-0.000.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.001.850.0042.51-0.00-0.28
OklahomaB120.001.8550.0058.570.000.32
AuburnSEC0.001.8250.0037.330.00-0.46
CreightonBE0.001.82100.0056.570.000.24
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.290.0039.93-0.00-0.06
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.230.0034.17-0.00-0.07
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.220.0044.88-0.00-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.200.0025.74-0.00-0.10
LamarSlnd0.000.200.0033.91-0.00-0.06
BradleyMVC0.000.190.0025.25-0.00-0.10
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.170.0066.74-0.000.06
DetroitHorz0.000.160.0053.31-0.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.15100.0056.850.000.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1533.3335.35-0.00-0.05
Seton HallBE0.000.15100.0055.750.000.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.140.0053.19-0.000.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.140.0052.18-0.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.130.0021.38-0.00-0.08
Appalachian St.SB0.000.130.0015.48-0.00-0.09
Arkansas St.SB0.000.130.0045.27-0.00-0.01
DrakeMVC0.000.130.0029.13-0.00-0.06
EvansvilleMVC0.000.13100.0063.340.000.04
Georgia St.SB0.000.130.0060.93-0.000.03
Illinois St.MVC0.000.130.0051.35-0.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1350.0052.180.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.13100.0051.730.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.13100.0067.300.000.05
South AlabamaSB0.000.130.0039.05-0.00-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1350.0060.330.000.03
Texas St.SB0.000.13100.0055.450.000.01
TroySB0.000.130.0044.62-0.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.1366.6755.190.000.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.130.0046.79-0.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.130.0033.91-0.00-0.04
Texas TechB120.000.1350.0045.040.00-0.01
TexasB120.000.13100.0084.350.000.09
MissouriSEC4.170.1366.6753.711.390.01
BaylorB120.000.13100.0070.330.000.05
Oklahoma St.B120.000.13100.0049.980.00-0.00
DukeACC0.000.12100.0085.060.000.09
KansasB120.000.1250.0060.040.000.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.120.0016.22-0.00-0.08
GonzagaWCC0.000.12100.0087.640.000.09
St. John'sBE0.000.12100.0053.570.000.01
XavierBE0.000.12100.0070.050.000.05
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.12100.0059.190.000.02
VillanovaBE0.000.12100.0068.630.000.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.110.0035.44-0.00-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.100.0045.95-0.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.100.0060.94-0.000.02
Green BayHorz0.000.100.0066.43-0.000.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.100.0035.31-0.00-0.03
NebraskaB100.000.10100.0051.780.000.00
South DakotaSum0.000.100.0035.01-0.00-0.03
Boise St.MWC0.000.09100.0065.680.000.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.090.0028.74-0.00-0.04
FloridaSEC0.000.0950.0068.630.000.04
USC UpstateASun0.000.09100.0050.460.000.00
WashingtonP120.000.09100.0056.080.000.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.090.0034.11-0.00-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0950.0067.190.000.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.09100.0036.790.00-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0950.0056.950.000.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0950.0040.830.00-0.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.09100.0028.940.00-0.04
ArkansasSEC0.000.09100.0074.610.000.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.090.0038.86-0.00-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.09100.0061.120.000.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0733.3350.61-0.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.070.0034.19-0.00-0.02
UMKCWAC0.000.0750.0059.510.000.01
DenverSum0.000.0750.0062.850.000.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.070.0019.35-0.00-0.04
IPFWSum0.000.07100.0063.800.000.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.0766.6743.460.00-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0750.0035.720.00-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0733.3364.95-0.000.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.07100.0067.660.000.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.070.0058.38-0.000.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.070.0049.36-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0750.0052.100.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.070.0036.86-0.00-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0750.0039.830.00-0.01
IUPUISum0.000.0733.3328.81-0.00-0.03
Weber St.BSky0.000.060.0059.82-0.000.01
BryantNEC0.000.0650.0051.350.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0633.3357.17-0.000.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0650.0061.730.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0029.01-0.00-0.03
Iowa St.B120.000.06100.0061.300.000.01
Kansas St.B120.000.06100.0060.010.000.01
StanfordP120.000.06100.0059.450.000.01
TCUB120.000.06100.0054.380.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.06100.0067.060.000.02
YaleIvy0.000.060.0054.91-0.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0633.3334.62-0.00-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0650.0054.530.000.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0650.0067.810.000.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.060.0027.60-0.00-0.03
LSUSEC0.000.06100.0063.440.000.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.060.0038.34-0.00-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0650.0071.690.000.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.060.0033.38-0.00-0.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0650.0029.910.00-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0633.3334.10-0.00-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0044.87-0.00-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.060.0037.06-0.00-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0650.0059.620.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0666.6747.950.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.060.0049.27-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.000.0666.6760.300.000.01
AmericanPat0.000.0650.0054.500.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.06100.0062.880.000.02
ButlerBE0.000.06100.0057.160.000.01
DelawareCAA0.000.060.0042.76-0.00-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0650.0043.510.00-0.01
DePaulBE0.000.06100.0039.730.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.06100.0065.390.000.02
HofstraCAA0.000.0650.0061.290.000.01
IndianaB100.000.06100.0064.540.000.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.060.0023.67-0.00-0.03
La SalleA100.000.06100.0056.340.000.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.060.0043.54-0.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0650.0054.560.000.01
MichiganB100.000.06100.0067.240.000.02
MonmouthMAAC0.000.060.0051.39-0.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.060.0069.58-0.000.02
PennIvy0.000.060.0025.99-0.00-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.000.06100.0062.990.000.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0633.3333.86-0.00-0.02
TowsonCAA0.000.0650.0045.250.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.060.0041.28-0.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.060.0055.17-0.000.01
WyomingMWC0.000.06100.0055.290.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0433.3350.49-0.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.04100.0072.220.000.02
BYUWCC0.000.03100.0068.310.000.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.03100.0062.270.000.01
DuquesneA100.000.030.0051.69-0.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0050.480.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.03100.0058.910.000.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0333.3328.73-0.00-0.01
Oregon St.P120.000.03100.0044.490.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0350.0046.970.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.03100.0068.930.000.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.030.0041.47-0.00-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.030.0028.57-0.00-0.01
UtahP120.000.0350.0063.450.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.030.0047.13-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.000.03100.0049.500.00-0.00
George MasonA100.000.0333.3324.67-0.00-0.02
StetsonASun0.000.030.0031.63-0.00-0.01
UCLAP120.000.03100.0064.410.000.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0350.0046.570.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.030.0063.86-0.000.01
ColoradoP120.000.03100.0068.310.000.01
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0085.280.000.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.030.0031.43-0.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0366.6757.950.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0043.860.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.03100.0048.650.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0350.0056.020.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0026.57-0.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.030.0058.61-0.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.03100.0048.410.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0071.430.000.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.03100.0080.040.000.02
St. Francis PANEC0.000.030.0048.12-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.0350.0063.340.000.01
VCUA100.000.03100.0076.230.000.02
WagnerNEC0.000.030.0044.27-0.00-0.00