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Through games of Dec 20, 2014.


Tulsa

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:108.5
Current RPI:96
Expected SOS:96
Current SOS:81
Current Record:6-4
Expected Record:16-13
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-2
Current OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:129
Expected OOC SOS:130



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-521.50.02%
23-625.80.06%
22-733.60.31%
21-841.51.39%
20-954.03.88%
19-1066.88.91%
18-1181.115.33%
17-1297.419.25%
16-13114.318.34%
15-14130.815.07%
14-15149.010.29%
13-16166.84.60%
12-17184.81.82%
11-18206.20.60%
10-19219.80.10%
9-20244.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tulsa.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Oral Roberts (216.3)SumA77-68L0%0.0
11-17Louisiana Lafayette (201.2)SBH64-53W100%0.0
11-19Abilene Christian (341.4)SlndH65-39W100%0.0
11-24Auburn (171.1)SECN53-35W100%0.0
11-26Oklahoma St. (29.8)B12N58-73L0%0.0
11-29Wichita St. (19.1)MVCA75-55L0%0.0
12-3Creighton (113.1)BEH77-64W100%0.0
12-7Arkansas Little Rock (272.9)SBA73-78W100%0.0
12-13Oklahoma (24.9)B12H68-87L0%0.0
12-17Missouri St. (212.2)MVCH74-70W100%0.0
12-22Incarnate Word (104.9)SlndH0-060%2.8
12-31UCF (253.0)AmerA0-069%5.8
1-4Houston (245.1)AmerH0-086%12.4
1-10Temple (103.9)AmerA0-038%-3.5
1-13Connecticut (72.3)AmerH0-052%0.6
1-17South Florida (193.8)AmerA0-052%0.7
1-21Memphis (80.4)AmerH0-055%1.6
1-24East Carolina (231.8)AmerA0-058%2.5
1-27Tulane (155.0)AmerA0-048%-0.7
1-31South Florida (193.8)AmerH0-078%9.1
2-5Houston (245.1)AmerA0-063%4.0
2-7SMU (26.6)AmerH0-037%-3.8
2-12Connecticut (72.3)AmerA0-025%-7.7
2-18East Carolina (231.8)AmerH0-082%10.8
2-22Temple (103.9)AmerH0-066%4.9
2-25Tulane (155.0)AmerH0-074%7.6
2-28Memphis (80.4)AmerA0-028%-6.8
3-4Cincinnati (67.8)AmerH0-054%1.2
3-8SMU (26.6)AmerA0-015%-12.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tulsa's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Tulsa's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Tulsa.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TulsaAmer27.8526.3257.1455.123.982.69
MemphisAmer0.844.3660.0062.340.171.08
South FloridaAmer0.004.3040.0041.79-0.00-0.71
HoustonAmer0.364.2962.5042.990.09-0.60
ConnecticutAmer0.004.2950.0057.850.000.67
TempleAmer0.004.2763.6457.020.000.60
East CarolinaAmer0.004.2633.3338.51-0.00-0.98
SMUAmer0.004.2672.7375.840.002.20
TulaneAmer0.004.2688.8957.100.000.60
CincinnatiAmer0.002.6670.0065.300.000.81
UCFAmer0.002.6555.5636.080.00-0.74
Oral RobertsSum5.841.9033.3342.01-1.95-0.30
Missouri St.MVC5.611.8837.5038.60-1.40-0.43
Abilene ChristianSlnd5.001.8616.6715.73-3.33-1.27
Louisiana LafayetteSB5.501.8542.8651.14-0.790.04
OklahomaB125.461.8466.6761.431.820.42
Wichita St.MVC5.001.8485.7184.923.571.29
Oklahoma St.B125.001.8487.5061.693.750.43
Arkansas Little RockSB5.281.8250.0039.230.00-0.39
Incarnate WordSlnd0.001.7980.0078.010.001.00
AuburnSEC5.311.7555.5641.160.59-0.31
CreightonBE5.251.7581.8253.873.340.14
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.530.3120.0045.74-0.32-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.360.2275.0058.760.180.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.2166.6762.580.000.05
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.2016.6736.63-0.00-0.05
LamarSlnd0.000.2014.2935.86-0.00-0.06
BradleyMVC0.000.1833.3334.04-0.00-0.06
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1830.0029.75-0.00-0.07
Texas TechB120.530.1890.0055.360.420.02
TexasB120.000.1790.9179.980.000.10
West VirginiaB120.000.1790.9170.080.000.07
BaylorB120.000.1790.0073.240.000.08
KansasB120.000.1790.0070.680.000.07
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.1666.6778.020.000.09
DetroitHorz0.310.1540.0048.02-0.06-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.310.1516.6743.20-0.21-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.310.1566.6754.130.100.01
MissouriSEC0.500.1540.0032.26-0.10-0.05
Seton HallBE0.310.1590.0067.380.250.05
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.1433.3334.30-0.00-0.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.560.1316.6740.27-0.38-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.570.130.0017.69-0.57-0.08
DrakeMVC0.000.1318.1819.46-0.00-0.08
EvansvilleMVC0.000.1377.7872.060.000.06
Illinois St.MVC0.000.1360.0061.600.000.03
Northern IowaMVC0.000.1390.9183.090.000.08
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1354.5544.930.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.1237.5034.64-0.00-0.04
Arkansas St.SB0.000.1242.8648.87-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.1262.5072.070.000.05
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.1233.3346.17-0.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.120.0031.89-0.00-0.04
Texas St.SB0.000.1250.0050.060.000.00
TroySB0.000.1233.3339.85-0.00-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.1255.5655.710.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz1.090.1230.0031.48-0.44-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.129.0917.12-0.00-0.08
Western IllinoisSum0.000.1237.5031.88-0.00-0.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.1220.0027.29-0.00-0.05
Iowa St.B120.000.1290.0065.480.000.04
Kansas St.B120.000.1263.6440.190.00-0.02
TCUB120.000.12100.0067.700.000.04
GonzagaWCC0.000.1290.9190.540.000.09
St. John'sBE0.000.1288.8965.170.000.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.490.1150.0047.880.00-0.00
DukeACC0.000.11100.0087.090.000.08
XavierBE0.250.1172.7367.590.110.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.210.1150.0071.260.000.05
VillanovaBE0.000.11100.0082.970.000.07
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.100.0017.97-0.00-0.07
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.1055.5673.740.000.05
McNeese St.Slnd0.310.1020.0044.37-0.19-0.01
NebraskaB100.210.0966.6744.720.07-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.360.0977.7872.890.200.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0927.2735.36-0.00-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0942.8649.02-0.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.000.0975.0077.010.000.05
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0918.1820.86-0.00-0.05
South DakotaSum0.210.0927.2738.30-0.09-0.02
Oregon St.P120.780.0977.7856.220.430.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0954.5541.980.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0980.0072.200.000.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0944.4437.40-0.00-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0920.0052.97-0.000.01
WashingtonP120.250.09100.0075.440.250.04
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.210.0933.3340.63-0.07-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.490.0940.0043.04-0.10-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.310.0972.7367.520.140.03
USC UpstateASun0.000.0963.6467.210.000.03
FloridaSEC0.000.0963.6465.220.000.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.280.090.0039.10-0.28-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0975.0061.480.000.02
MississippiSEC0.210.0870.0052.600.080.00
ButlerBE0.250.0872.7367.960.110.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0736.3645.11-0.00-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0720.0046.47-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.360.0720.0040.84-0.21-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.560.0633.3361.74-0.190.01
DenverSum0.000.0645.4555.13-0.000.01
IPFWSum0.000.0650.0054.190.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.0627.2728.86-0.00-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0644.4455.37-0.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0655.5655.280.000.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0670.0059.660.000.01
Weber St.BSky0.250.0637.5044.33-0.06-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0618.1837.71-0.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0660.0076.250.000.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0011.94-0.00-0.05
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0627.2729.17-0.00-0.02
HarvardIvy0.000.0685.7172.910.000.03
HawaiiBW0.000.0666.6754.470.000.01
IndianaB100.000.0681.8263.330.000.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.0663.6455.660.000.01
MichiganB100.000.0650.0040.450.00-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0650.0058.370.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0616.6735.27-0.00-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.0660.0065.120.000.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.0672.7374.850.000.03
RiceCUSA0.000.0616.6726.98-0.00-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0618.1827.33-0.00-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0034.33-0.00-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0644.4449.14-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0637.5063.95-0.000.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0614.2944.44-0.00-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0620.0035.33-0.00-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0657.1455.330.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0645.4537.60-0.00-0.01
WyomingMWC0.000.0680.0073.540.000.03
South CarolinaSEC0.280.0666.6766.010.090.02
North TexasCUSA0.280.0642.8636.81-0.04-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0675.0067.140.000.02
BryantNEC0.000.0628.5745.89-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0645.4545.10-0.00-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0666.6767.930.000.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0014.00-0.00-0.04
DaytonA100.000.0680.0069.770.000.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0662.5059.050.000.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0670.0076.180.000.03
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0610.0018.05-0.00-0.04
LSUSEC0.000.0680.0063.910.000.02
StanfordP120.000.0666.6758.320.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0670.0061.320.000.01
UABCUSA0.000.0630.0036.69-0.00-0.02
YaleIvy0.000.0666.6761.820.000.01
AmericanPat0.000.0663.6463.240.000.01
DelawareCAA0.000.060.008.56-0.00-0.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0636.3646.72-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.000.0660.0034.160.00-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.0670.0059.220.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0650.0037.570.00-0.01
La SalleA100.000.0654.5552.730.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0633.3345.04-0.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0660.0048.980.00-0.00
PennIvy0.000.0637.5032.63-0.00-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.0675.0057.390.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0660.0043.160.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0660.0047.170.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0666.6749.560.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0433.3341.02-0.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0460.0071.280.000.02
DuquesneA100.360.0337.5034.06-0.09-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0325.0023.40-0.00-0.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.360.0342.8641.81-0.05-0.01
Saint LouisA100.310.0360.0033.270.06-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.360.0350.0043.310.00-0.00
UtahP120.310.0380.0080.520.190.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0318.1830.76-0.00-0.01
BYUWCC0.360.0370.0068.340.140.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.360.0318.1822.49-0.23-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.280.03100.0078.210.280.02
DavidsonA100.000.0388.8977.320.000.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.280.0375.0066.220.140.01
Kent St.MAC0.360.0375.0058.160.180.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.280.0340.0046.19-0.06-0.00
StetsonASun0.000.0310.0027.17-0.00-0.01
Washington St.P120.280.0340.0028.13-0.06-0.01
MarylandB100.000.0390.9168.230.000.01
ClemsonACC0.250.0360.0043.890.05-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.250.0357.1470.520.040.01
ColoradoP120.250.0366.6758.000.080.00
George MasonA100.000.0333.3330.21-0.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0096.290.000.03
TennesseeSEC0.000.0355.5646.290.00-0.00
UCLAP120.250.0366.6754.480.080.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0366.6758.210.000.00
WinthropBSth0.250.0325.0044.27-0.13-0.00
WisconsinB100.250.0390.9188.840.200.02
Chicago St.WAC0.210.030.0011.59-0.21-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0316.6737.21-0.00-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.210.0362.5058.080.050.00
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0372.7372.580.000.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0355.5665.210.000.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0333.3355.24-0.000.00
VCUA100.000.0372.7375.740.000.01
WagnerNEC0.000.0312.5030.56-0.00-0.01