Tulsa

Conference:	CUSA
Expected RPI:	105.7
Current RPI:	108
Expected SOS:	108
Current SOS:	105
Current Record:	14-9
Expected Record:	18-12
Current Conf Record:	7-2
Expected Conf Record:	11-5
Probability of Auto Bid:	5.88%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	8-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	6-3
Current OOC Record:	7-7
Expected OOC Record:	7-7
Expected OOC RPI:	136
Expected OOC SOS:	101

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
21-9	67.2	0.76%
20-10	78.5	5.88%
19-11	90.3	18.59%
18-12	101.6	31.10%
17-13	113.6	27.27%
16-14	126.2	13.24%
15-15	140.0	2.86%
14-16	156.6	0.29%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tulsa.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Arkansas Little Rock (187.7)	SB	H	65-49	W	100%	0.0
11-13	Southeastern Louisiana (326.2)	Slnd	H	67-52	W	100%	0.0
11-17	Western Kentucky (240.2)	SB	N	49-65	W	100%	0.0
11-18	Northwestern (66.2)	B10	N	69-65	L	0%	0.0
11-20	Saint Joseph's (49.2)	A10	N	79-75	L	0%	0.0
11-22	Jackson St. (308.4)	SWAC	A	51-57	W	100%	0.0
11-26	Missouri St. (82.4)	MVC	A	69-64	L	0%	0.0
11-30	Oklahoma St. (120.3)	B12	A	59-56	L	0%	0.0
12-3	Arizona St. (241.2)	P12	H	64-67	L	0%	0.0
12-7	Wichita St. (17.4)	MVC	H	67-77	L	0%	0.0
12-17	Texas Arlington (100.3)	Slnd	H	80-75	W	100%	0.0
12-19	Creighton (21.0)	MVC	H	64-83	L	0%	0.0
12-28	Mercer (98.0)	ASun	H	68-62	W	100%	0.0
12-31	Texas Christian (123.7)	MWC	A	66-74	W	100%	0.0
1-4	Houston (233.1)	CUSA	A	70-69	L	0%	0.0
1-7	Southern Methodist (214.4)	CUSA	H	55-57	L	0%	0.0
1-11	Texas El Paso (178.1)	CUSA	H	59-48	W	100%	0.0
1-14	East Carolina (158.4)	CUSA	A	67-70	W	100%	0.0
1-18	Tulane (174.9)	CUSA	H	60-56	W	100%	0.0
1-21	Rice (177.4)	CUSA	A	46-70	W	100%	0.0
1-25	Central Florida (72.7)	CUSA	H	66-61	W	100%	0.0
1-28	Southern Methodist (214.4)	CUSA	A	60-66	W	100%	0.0
2-4	Marshall (61.3)	CUSA	H	79-70	W	100%	0.0
2-8	Texas El Paso (178.1)	CUSA	A	0-0		51%	0.1
2-11	Houston (233.1)	CUSA	H	0-0		83%	10.3
2-15	Southern Mississippi (15.8)	CUSA	A	0-0		25%	-7.4
2-18	Rice (177.4)	CUSA	H	0-0		77%	8.2
2-25	Tulane (174.9)	CUSA	A	0-0		47%	-0.9
2-29	UAB (140.0)	CUSA	A	0-0		53%	0.7
3-3	Memphis (25.8)	CUSA	H	0-0		37%	-3.7

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tulsa's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Tulsa's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Tulsa.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Tulsa	CUSA	26.26	26.16	57.66	57.39	4.02	3.87
Southern Methodist	CUSA	4.81	4.09	36.84	36.96	-1.27	-1.07
Houston	CUSA	2.59	4.00	45.00	43.55	-0.26	-0.52
Rice	CUSA	2.59	4.00	50.00	49.17	0.00	-0.07
Texas El Paso	CUSA	2.59	3.98	45.45	44.63	-0.24	-0.43
Tulane	CUSA	2.58	3.97	65.00	61.04	0.77	0.88
UAB	CUSA	0.45	2.31	40.91	39.55	-0.08	-0.48
Memphis	CUSA	0.36	2.29	69.57	71.79	0.14	1.00
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.32	2.28	85.71	82.43	0.23	1.48
Marshall	CUSA	2.38	2.25	61.90	61.85	0.57	0.53
Central Florida	CUSA	2.49	2.25	75.00	69.07	1.25	0.86
East Carolina	CUSA	2.48	2.24	47.06	43.45	-0.15	-0.29
Creighton	MVC	2.41	1.86	86.96	84.90	1.78	1.30
Texas Christian	MWC	2.28	1.84	60.00	51.31	0.46	0.05
Missouri St.	MVC	2.41	1.84	52.17	55.72	0.10	0.21
Wichita St.	MVC	2.26	1.81	81.82	79.72	1.44	1.07
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	2.37	1.78	45.45	45.83	-0.22	-0.15
Western Kentucky	SB	2.33	1.75	36.36	35.71	-0.63	-0.50
Oklahoma St.	B12	2.32	1.75	42.86	38.66	-0.33	-0.40
Jackson St.	SWAC	2.28	1.75	20.00	26.43	-1.37	-0.83
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	2.27	1.72	29.41	30.76	-0.94	-0.66
Saint Joseph's	A10	2.27	1.72	60.87	61.24	0.49	0.39
Texas Arlington	Slnd	2.23	1.70	80.00	78.65	1.34	0.97
Arizona St.	P12	2.17	1.70	27.27	29.07	-0.99	-0.71
Northwestern	B10	2.22	1.69	60.00	53.60	0.44	0.12
Mercer	ASun	2.17	1.67	73.91	74.11	1.04	0.80
Southern	SWAC	0.26	0.26	45.00	46.13	-0.03	-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.31	0.26	18.18	21.13	-0.20	-0.15
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.20	0.23	57.14	60.75	0.03	0.05
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.28	0.23	62.50	61.50	0.07	0.05
Texas St.	Slnd	0.16	0.21	22.22	27.62	-0.09	-0.09
Colorado St.	MWC	0.20	0.20	66.67	60.80	0.07	0.04
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.25	0.20	17.39	24.41	-0.16	-0.10
Evansville	MVC	0.19	0.20	45.45	44.02	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.28	0.20	62.50	62.06	0.07	0.05
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.23	0.20	34.78	32.06	-0.07	-0.07
Lamar	Slnd	0.22	0.18	61.90	67.23	0.05	0.06
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.20	0.18	55.00	54.48	0.02	0.02
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.11	0.18	41.18	42.61	-0.02	-0.03
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.26	0.18	42.86	43.45	-0.04	-0.02
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.26	0.17	19.05	24.61	-0.16	-0.09
Bradley	MVC	0.23	0.17	24.00	24.86	-0.12	-0.08
Drake	MVC	0.23	0.17	52.17	50.09	0.01	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.19	0.17	56.52	54.22	0.02	0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.09	0.17	69.57	68.90	0.04	0.06
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.16	0.15	25.00	23.75	-0.08	-0.08
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.10	0.15	17.65	27.10	-0.07	-0.07
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.16	0.15	16.67	23.02	-0.10	-0.08
Grambling	SWAC	0.16	0.15	15.00	15.73	-0.11	-0.10
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.16	0.15	47.06	50.75	-0.01	0.00
Texas	B12	0.15	0.14	60.87	61.37	0.03	0.03
North Texas	SB	0.20	0.14	50.00	50.01	0.00	0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.09	0.14	52.38	52.87	0.00	0.01
Temple	A10	0.14	0.14	77.27	75.06	0.08	0.07
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.19	0.14	39.13	42.12	-0.04	-0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.25	0.14	50.00	48.90	0.00	-0.00
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.15	0.14	82.61	81.44	0.10	0.09
New Mexico	MWC	0.19	0.14	81.82	81.03	0.12	0.09
Baylor	B12	0.25	0.14	90.91	83.85	0.21	0.10
Belmont	ASun	0.14	0.14	69.57	73.28	0.06	0.07
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.10	0.12	20.00	19.96	-0.06	-0.07
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.20	0.12	8.70	8.99	-0.17	-0.10
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.16	0.12	26.32	29.79	-0.07	-0.05
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.15	0.12	33.33	37.25	-0.05	-0.03
Texas Tech	B12	0.21	0.12	31.82	25.98	-0.08	-0.06
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.15	0.12	59.09	57.28	0.03	0.02
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.15	0.12	25.00	28.52	-0.07	-0.05
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.15	0.12	54.17	54.75	0.01	0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.10	0.12	73.91	68.43	0.05	0.04
Oklahoma	B12	0.10	0.12	59.09	54.70	0.02	0.01
Texas A&M	B12	0.10	0.12	52.38	46.15	0.00	-0.01
Denver	SB	0.14	0.11	70.83	72.23	0.06	0.05
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.00	0.11	83.33	84.76	0.00	0.08
Mississippi	SEC	0.16	0.11	63.64	56.71	0.04	0.02
Troy	SB	0.05	0.11	28.57	30.17	-0.02	-0.05
Arkansas St.	SB	0.09	0.11	37.50	38.33	-0.02	-0.03
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.20	0.11	80.77	80.75	0.12	0.07
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.11	100.00	94.55	0.05	0.10
Kansas St.	B12	0.10	0.11	72.73	68.28	0.04	0.04
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.11	0.09	27.78	29.87	-0.05	-0.04
Arkansas	SEC	0.11	0.09	69.57	65.15	0.04	0.03
Old Dominion	CAA	0.11	0.09	60.00	58.29	0.02	0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.16	0.09	47.62	47.18	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.10	0.09	34.78	38.42	-0.03	-0.02
Syracuse	BE	0.10	0.09	95.83	92.01	0.09	0.07
Navy	Pat	0.10	0.09	9.52	13.19	-0.08	-0.06
Charlotte	A10	0.11	0.09	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Massachusetts	A10	0.11	0.09	73.91	68.58	0.05	0.03
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.10	0.09	30.00	37.30	-0.04	-0.02
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.09	0.09	36.36	39.72	-0.03	-0.02
Florida International	SB	0.09	0.09	33.33	37.16	-0.03	-0.02
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.09	0.09	80.00	78.06	0.06	0.05
Stetson	ASun	0.14	0.09	31.82	31.31	-0.05	-0.03
Fresno St.	WAC	0.15	0.09	39.13	44.52	-0.03	-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.10	0.09	50.00	58.16	0.00	0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.10	0.09	85.71	78.05	0.07	0.05
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.10	0.09	31.82	42.13	-0.04	-0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.15	0.08	52.38	46.68	0.01	-0.01
Colorado	P12	0.09	0.08	66.67	62.65	0.03	0.02
Jacksonville	ASun	0.05	0.08	17.39	22.00	-0.03	-0.05
North Florida	ASun	0.10	0.08	45.83	46.68	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.10	0.08	86.96	85.46	0.08	0.06
Southern California	P12	0.10	0.08	25.00	25.13	-0.05	-0.04
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.08	54.17	49.44	0.00	-0.00
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.09	0.08	8.70	11.67	-0.07	-0.06
Missouri	B12	0.09	0.08	91.30	87.18	0.08	0.06
Oregon	P12	0.09	0.08	69.57	64.53	0.04	0.02
Lipscomb	ASun	0.05	0.08	43.48	43.82	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.08	72.73	66.81	0.02	0.03
Penn St.	B10	0.10	0.08	41.67	38.67	-0.02	-0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.14	0.08	65.22	63.74	0.04	0.02
Campbell	BSth	0.11	0.06	56.00	55.65	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.00	0.06	4.35	9.66	-0.00	-0.05
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.06	19.05	22.37	-0.03	-0.03
Oakland	Sum	0.05	0.06	48.00	50.21	-0.00	0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.05	0.06	33.33	33.82	-0.02	-0.02
Utah Valley	GWC	0.05	0.06	54.55	57.69	0.00	0.01
Wofford	SC	0.05	0.06	59.09	57.93	0.01	0.01
High Point	BSth	0.10	0.06	31.82	32.75	-0.04	-0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.05	0.06	47.37	42.16	-0.00	-0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.05	0.06	42.86	41.13	-0.01	-0.01
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.06	82.61	77.63	0.03	0.03
Georgia Southern	SC	0.10	0.06	40.00	41.30	-0.02	-0.01
IUPUI	Sum	0.09	0.06	34.78	35.50	-0.03	-0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.06	71.43	69.05	0.02	0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.06	35.00	40.78	-0.02	-0.01
Utah St.	WAC	0.10	0.06	50.00	52.93	0.00	0.00
Wyoming	MWC	0.05	0.06	76.19	70.73	0.03	0.02
Harvard	Ivy	0.10	0.06	90.48	87.91	0.08	0.04
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.06	20.83	20.60	-0.03	-0.03
Alabama	SEC	0.10	0.06	68.18	69.10	0.04	0.02
California	P12	0.10	0.06	75.00	74.61	0.05	0.03
Chicago St.	GWC	0.09	0.06	4.76	9.95	-0.08	-0.05
Furman	SC	0.09	0.06	47.62	48.83	-0.00	-0.00
Michigan St.	B10	0.10	0.06	76.19	72.91	0.05	0.03
Samford	SC	0.10	0.06	33.33	35.26	-0.03	-0.02
St. Mary's	WCC	0.10	0.06	90.91	87.74	0.08	0.04
West Virginia	BE	0.09	0.06	65.22	65.17	0.03	0.02
George Washington	A10	0.00	0.06	34.78	32.08	-0.00	-0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.09	0.06	79.17	80.10	0.06	0.03
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.06	78.26	72.66	0.03	0.03
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.06	66.67	68.55	0.02	0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.06	56.52	48.81	0.01	-0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.06	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.05	0.06	52.38	52.86	0.00	0.00
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.06	72.73	64.43	0.02	0.02
Kansas	B12	0.00	0.06	78.26	78.39	0.00	0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.06	69.57	61.31	0.02	0.01
Nevada	WAC	0.09	0.06	80.95	76.42	0.06	0.03
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.06	65.22	60.58	0.02	0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.09	0.06	54.55	56.09	0.01	0.01
Stanford	P12	0.10	0.06	69.57	68.29	0.04	0.02
UC Riverside	BW	0.05	0.06	42.86	39.66	-0.01	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.06	54.55	56.79	0.00	0.01
Utah	P12	0.05	0.06	18.18	15.01	-0.03	-0.04
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.10	0.06	56.52	55.20	0.01	0.01
Washington	P12	0.05	0.06	69.57	66.54	0.02	0.02
Washington St.	P12	0.05	0.06	50.00	48.17	0.00	-0.00
Georgetown	BE	0.00	0.05	80.95	77.38	0.00	0.03
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.00	0.05	45.45	44.66	-0.00	-0.01
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.05	65.22	63.74	0.01	0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.06	0.03	35.00	39.29	-0.02	-0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.06	0.03	72.22	71.97	0.03	0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.06	0.03	34.78	38.77	-0.02	-0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.06	0.03	34.78	33.46	-0.02	-0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.06	0.03	38.89	43.93	-0.01	-0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.06	0.03	40.91	39.56	-0.01	-0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.03	38.10	42.78	-0.01	-0.00
College of Charleston	SC	0.05	0.03	58.33	59.98	0.01	0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.03	68.18	63.99	0.02	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.03	72.73	71.71	0.02	0.01
Hartford	AE	0.05	0.03	17.39	20.97	-0.03	-0.02
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.03	68.18	67.91	0.02	0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.03	47.62	48.82	-0.00	-0.00
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.05	0.03	65.00	66.70	0.01	0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.05	0.03	55.00	60.33	0.00	0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.03	69.57	65.47	0.02	0.01
Davidson	SC	0.00	0.03	76.19	76.76	0.00	0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.03	40.91	38.38	-0.01	-0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.03	95.83	92.57	0.04	0.02
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.03	39.13	36.10	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	68.18	69.68	0.02	0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.03	81.82	77.20	0.03	0.02
South Florida	BE	0.00	0.03	54.55	48.60	0.00	-0.00
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.03	21.74	24.58	-0.03	-0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	56.52	53.10	0.01	0.00
UC Irvine	BW	0.00	0.03	35.00	35.26	-0.00	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.03	81.82	76.80	0.03	0.02
Weber St.	BSky	0.00	0.03	80.00	76.84	0.00	0.02
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.03	56.52	57.72	0.01	0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.03	41.67	40.61	-0.01	-0.01
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.05	0.03	45.45	45.70	-0.00	-0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.03	27.27	35.02	-0.02	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.03	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.05	0.03	33.33	34.47	-0.02	-0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.05	0.03	54.55	54.30	0.00	0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.03	45.45	41.20	-0.00	-0.00
Indiana	B10	0.00	0.03	75.00	75.78	0.00	0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.00	0.03	71.43	73.35	0.00	0.01
Montana St.	BSky	0.05	0.03	45.00	41.76	-0.00	-0.00
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.03	37.50	41.54	-0.01	-0.00
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.03	61.90	63.52	0.01	0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.05	0.03	13.64	16.14	-0.03	-0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.03	63.64	63.16	0.01	0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.05	0.03	31.82	33.83	-0.02	-0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.05	0.03	60.87	58.16	0.01	0.00
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.03	73.91	75.49	0.02	0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.05	0.03	66.67	68.05	0.02	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.03	47.83	43.66	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.03	75.00	73.97	0.03	0.01
American	Pat	0.05	0.03	65.22	63.79	0.01	0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.00	0.03	33.33	35.97	-0.00	-0.01
Boston University	AE	0.05	0.03	48.00	51.88	-0.00	0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	42.11	49.81	-0.01	-0.00
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.03	60.87	60.96	0.01	0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.03	79.17	78.10	0.03	0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.03	59.09	56.35	0.01	0.00
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.03	40.91	34.50	-0.01	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.03	70.83	68.82	0.02	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.00	0.03	65.00	60.02	0.00	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	25.00	37.58	-0.02	-0.01
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.05	0.03	54.55	56.84	0.00	0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.00	0.03	68.00	70.03	0.00	0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.00	0.03	60.00	59.06	0.00	0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.00	0.03	77.27	77.67	0.00	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.03	45.45	46.08	-0.00	-0.00