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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Tulsa

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:134.0
Current RPI:134
Expected SOS:73
Current SOS:73
Current Record:15-17
Expected Record:15-17
Current Conf Record:9-11
Expected Conf Record:9-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-3
Current OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:142
Expected OOC SOS:58



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-17134.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tulsa.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Jacksonville St. (149.0)OVCH73-84L0%0.0
11-16Wichita St. (32.0)MVCA80-53L0%0.0
11-19New Orleans (154.0)SlndH77-68W100%0.0
11-22Oregon St. (280.0)P12H75-64W100%0.0
11-28Oral Roberts (292.0)SumA65-79W100%0.0
12-3Little Rock (243.0)SBA72-62L0%0.0
12-7Illinois St. (33.0)MVCH70-68W100%0.0
12-10Oklahoma St. (39.0)B12H67-71L0%0.0
12-17Texas St. (179.0)SBH74-59W100%0.0
12-22Stephen F. Austin (202.0)SlndN51-74W100%0.0
12-23San Diego St. (98.0)MWCN82-63L0%0.0
12-25Illinois St. (33.0)MVCN68-56L0%0.0
12-31Connecticut (118.0)AmerH61-59W100%0.0
1-4Houston (54.0)AmerA64-61L0%0.0
1-11Memphis (120.0)AmerH81-71W100%0.0
1-14Temple (137.0)AmerA68-70W100%0.0
1-18Tulane (296.0)AmerH89-82W100%0.0
1-21South Florida (316.0)AmerA67-79W100%0.0
1-25East Carolina (213.0)AmerA69-66L0%0.0
1-28UCF (68.0)AmerH77-66W100%0.0
2-1Cincinnati (12.0)AmerH55-57L0%0.0
2-4SMU (13.0)AmerH53-76L0%0.0
2-7Memphis (120.0)AmerA66-44L0%0.0
2-11Houston (54.0)AmerH64-73L0%0.0
2-14UCF (68.0)AmerA71-53L0%0.0
2-18Cincinnati (12.0)AmerA80-60L0%0.0
2-23South Florida (316.0)AmerH82-68W100%0.0
2-26East Carolina (213.0)AmerH74-66W100%0.0
3-2SMU (13.0)AmerA93-70L0%0.0
3-5Tulane (296.0)AmerA81-69L0%0.0
3-9Tulane (296.0)AmerN66-60W100%0.0
3-10Cincinnati (12.0)AmerN80-61L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tulsa's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Tulsa's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Tulsa.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TulsaAmer26.4226.4244.2044.20-3.06-3.06
CincinnatiAmer5.505.5083.8783.873.723.72
TulaneAmer5.495.4917.8617.86-3.53-3.53
SMUAmer4.074.0787.5087.503.053.05
UCFAmer3.973.9766.6766.671.321.32
East CarolinaAmer3.963.9645.1645.16-0.38-0.38
HoustonAmer3.953.9565.5265.521.221.22
MemphisAmer3.933.9360.0060.000.790.79
South FloridaAmer3.923.9225.0025.00-1.96-1.96
Illinois St.MVC3.203.2083.3383.332.132.13
ConnecticutAmer2.612.6148.3948.39-0.08-0.08
TempleAmer2.482.4851.6151.610.080.08
Wichita St.MVC1.731.7387.5087.501.301.30
New OrleansSlnd1.721.7262.9662.960.450.45
Texas St.SB1.661.6660.0060.000.330.33
Oklahoma St.B121.641.6460.0060.000.330.33
Stephen F. AustinSlnd1.621.6253.5753.570.120.12
Little RockSB1.621.6241.3841.38-0.28-0.28
Oral RobertsSum1.591.5922.2222.22-0.88-0.88
Jacksonville St.OVC1.561.5654.8454.840.150.15
Oregon St.P121.561.5613.3313.33-1.15-1.15
San Diego St.MWC1.561.5654.8454.840.150.15
McNeese St.Slnd0.280.2819.2319.23-0.17-0.17
OklahomaB120.230.2335.4835.48-0.07-0.07
Missouri St.MVC0.220.2250.0050.000.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.200.2053.3353.330.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.190.1945.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.190.1950.0050.000.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.190.1960.7160.710.040.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.190.1925.0025.00-0.09-0.09
TroySB0.180.1858.8258.820.030.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.180.1822.5822.58-0.10-0.10
TCUB120.170.1754.5554.550.020.02
BradleyMVC0.170.1737.5037.50-0.04-0.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.160.1646.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.160.1661.2961.290.040.04
DrakeMVC0.150.1520.6920.69-0.09-0.09
Indiana St.MVC0.150.1533.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Northern IowaMVC0.150.1544.8344.83-0.02-0.02
Iowa St.B120.140.1469.7069.700.060.06
Nicholls St.Slnd0.130.1337.0437.04-0.03-0.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.130.1332.0032.00-0.05-0.05
Southern MissCUSA0.130.1324.1424.14-0.07-0.07
George WashingtonA100.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
Arizona St.P120.130.1345.4545.45-0.01-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.120.1224.1424.14-0.06-0.06
USCP120.120.1272.7372.730.060.06
Rhode IslandA100.120.1272.7372.730.050.05
AlbanyAE0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
LamarSlnd0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
South DakotaSum0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
Fort WayneSum0.100.1057.1457.140.010.01
IUPUISum0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.100.1073.5373.530.050.05
Appalachian St.SB0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Coastal CarolinaSB0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
South CarolinaSEC0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
North CarolinaACC0.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
CaliforniaP120.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.1017.8617.86-0.06-0.06
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.1040.7440.74-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
StanfordP120.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.100.1032.2632.26-0.03-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.100.1072.7372.730.040.04
StetsonASun0.100.1027.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Boise St.MWC0.090.0962.0762.070.020.02
SamfordSC0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.080.0836.0036.00-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.080.0836.0036.00-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
BaylorB120.080.0877.4277.420.040.04
UtahP120.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
MississippiSEC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Utah St.MWC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
MissouriSEC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
SouthernSWAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.070.0784.8584.850.050.05
West VirginiaB120.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
LSUSEC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
HawaiiBW0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
NevadaMWC0.070.0782.3582.350.050.05
BelmontOVC0.070.0777.7877.780.040.04
MassachusettsA100.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.070.0746.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
UNLVMWC0.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
VillanovaBE0.070.0791.1891.180.060.06
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
BrownIvy0.070.0739.2939.29-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
Penn St.B100.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0767.6567.650.020.02
XavierBE0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
DenverSum0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0623.0823.08-0.03-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Washington St.P120.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
ElonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Michigan St.B100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
CornellIvy0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
George MasonA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0561.5461.540.010.01
KansasB120.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
Kansas St.B120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
UCLAP120.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
UTSACUSA0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.050.0584.8584.850.040.04
GeorgetownBE0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0529.4129.41-0.02-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.053.333.33-0.04-0.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
VirginiaACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
MichiganB100.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
PittsburghACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0518.5218.52-0.03-0.03
CreightonBE0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
MontanaBSky0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
OaklandHorz0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
RichmondA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
KentuckySEC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
IdahoBSky0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
ArizonaP120.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
CampbellBSth0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
PortlandWCC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
DePaulBE0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.020.0244.4444.44-0.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.020.0296.9796.970.020.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
HowardMEAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
NJITASun0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
WagnerNEC0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
YaleIvy0.020.0260.7160.710.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Saint LouisA100.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01