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Through games of Feb 11, 2016.


Tulsa

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:55.7
Current RPI:42
Expected SOS:58
Current SOS:46
Current Record:16-8
Expected Record:19-11
Current Conf Record:8-4
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-0
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:88
Expected OOC SOS:94



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-829.11.78%
21-937.413.08%
20-1048.831.94%
19-1160.634.05%
18-1271.616.06%
17-1383.62.96%
16-1497.10.12%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tulsa.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Central Arkansas (320.8)SlndH98-81W100%0.0
11-17Wichita St. (35.2)MVCH77-67W100%0.0
11-20Ohio (96.0)MACN90-88W100%0.0
11-22Indiana St. (159.2)MVCN59-67W100%0.0
11-23South Carolina (39.1)SECN83-75L0%0.0
11-28Arkansas Little Rock (55.4)SBH60-64L0%0.0
12-2Oklahoma St. (149.2)B12A56-66W100%0.0
12-5Oral Roberts (144.4)SumH68-70L0%0.0
12-8Iona (122.3)MAACH90-81W100%0.0
12-13Missouri St. (235.3)MVCA61-70W100%0.0
12-19Oregon St. (47.5)P12A76-71L0%0.0
12-22Northern Arizona (325.6)BSkyH90-55W100%0.0
12-29SMU (16.4)AmerH69-81L0%0.0
1-2Cincinnati (46.9)AmerA76-57L0%0.0
1-5East Carolina (198.1)AmerH55-43W100%0.0
1-10Tulane (232.1)AmerA67-81W100%0.0
1-14Connecticut (41.1)AmerH60-51W100%0.0
1-19East Carolina (198.1)AmerA69-84W100%0.0
1-24UCF (197.3)AmerH75-60W100%0.0
1-27Houston (94.4)AmerA81-66L0%0.0
1-30Tulane (232.1)AmerH62-48W100%0.0
2-4Temple (73.2)AmerA83-79L0%0.0
2-7Houston (94.4)AmerH77-63W100%0.0
2-10SMU (16.4)AmerA77-82W100%0.0
2-13Connecticut (41.1)AmerA0-021%-8.8
2-18Cincinnati (46.9)AmerH0-043%-2.0
2-21UCF (197.3)AmerA0-069%5.4
2-23Temple (73.2)AmerH0-072%6.2
2-28Memphis (120.6)AmerA0-042%-2.1
3-5South Florida (246.6)AmerH0-095%17.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tulsa's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Tulsa's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Tulsa.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TulsaAmer26.4326.2865.4563.928.177.31
East CarolinaAmer4.704.1345.4542.22-0.43-0.64
ConnecticutAmer2.604.1373.9172.251.251.84
HoustonAmer4.654.1372.7369.262.111.59
TulaneAmer4.614.1039.1337.25-1.00-1.05
CincinnatiAmer2.534.1070.8371.081.051.73
TempleAmer2.654.1063.6462.240.721.00
SMUAmer4.644.1090.4885.283.762.89
UCFAmer2.564.0952.3846.810.12-0.26
South FloridaAmer0.792.5720.0020.20-0.47-1.53
MemphisAmer0.662.5758.3359.360.110.48
Missouri St.MVC2.301.8739.1338.75-0.50-0.42
Arkansas Little RockSB2.321.8185.7183.661.661.22
Indiana St.MVC2.171.7852.1751.250.090.04
Wichita St.MVC2.171.7877.2779.541.181.05
Oral RobertsSum2.221.7539.1340.26-0.48-0.34
South CarolinaSEC2.131.7586.3679.751.551.04
Central ArkansasSlnd2.181.7226.3231.00-1.03-0.66
IonaMAAC2.131.7063.6462.840.580.44
Northern ArizonaBSky2.131.7010.0012.56-1.70-1.27
Oklahoma St.B122.131.7047.8343.71-0.09-0.21
Oregon St.P122.131.7061.9057.230.510.25
OhioMAC2.081.6766.6763.670.690.46
DrakeMVC0.300.2320.8323.28-0.18-0.12
Nicholls St.Slnd0.230.2018.1821.11-0.15-0.11
BradleyMVC0.220.1712.0011.95-0.17-0.13
EvansvilleMVC0.260.1772.0073.080.120.08
Illinois St.MVC0.180.1756.0054.080.020.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.180.1745.8343.78-0.01-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.180.1756.0055.450.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.220.1773.0872.610.100.08
Norfolk St.MEAC0.230.1743.4850.64-0.030.00
ButlerBE0.170.1770.8369.000.070.06
UtahP120.190.1470.8368.520.080.05
IUPUISum0.170.1438.4638.50-0.04-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.090.1479.1777.510.050.08
OklahomaB120.140.1486.9682.620.100.09
George WashingtonA100.090.1475.0071.960.040.06
Mississippi St.SEC0.170.1443.4843.77-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.180.1282.6183.030.120.08
ColoradoP120.190.1270.8365.580.080.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.090.1245.0049.27-0.01-0.00
StanfordP120.190.1247.6244.06-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.1134.7833.02-0.01-0.04
CaliforniaP120.130.1166.6764.780.040.03
New OrleansSlnd0.190.1126.3232.40-0.09-0.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.1114.2924.90-0.07-0.06
LSUSEC0.180.1162.5059.080.040.02
Kent St.MAC0.190.1165.2260.600.060.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.180.1145.4549.05-0.02-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.1150.0045.770.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.130.1126.0927.89-0.06-0.05
StetsonASun0.130.1122.7327.39-0.07-0.05
Appalachian St.SB0.130.1125.0028.15-0.07-0.05
DelawareCAA0.090.1125.0024.93-0.05-0.06
MinnesotaB100.130.1125.0027.26-0.07-0.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.130.1124.0025.68-0.07-0.05
MichiganB100.130.1170.8366.750.060.04
New HampshireAE0.130.1159.0956.870.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.130.1183.3378.380.090.06
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.170.119.0917.14-0.14-0.07
TCUB120.180.1145.8339.36-0.01-0.02
Iowa St.B120.090.1170.8367.970.040.04
TexasB120.090.1166.6762.200.030.03
IdahoBSky0.150.0956.5255.340.020.01
USCP120.090.0978.2673.130.050.04
Arkansas St.SB0.100.0940.9138.82-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.090.0945.4543.87-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.100.0943.4842.40-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.090.0934.7834.97-0.03-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.140.0959.0961.280.030.02
AkronMAC0.090.0982.6181.140.060.05
Ball St.MAC0.140.0960.8757.130.030.01
AlabamaSEC0.140.0960.8755.980.030.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0845.4543.23-0.00-0.01
TroySB0.090.0822.7324.38-0.05-0.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0868.1871.350.020.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.130.0839.1341.05-0.03-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.130.0858.3357.250.020.01
WyomingMWC0.130.0843.4842.54-0.02-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.130.0872.0071.320.060.04
KansasB120.090.0882.6179.200.060.05
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.140.0872.2275.600.060.04
San Diego St.MWC0.130.0869.5770.090.050.03
Texas TechB120.090.0860.8755.310.020.01
Western CarolinaSC0.090.0831.8234.54-0.03-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.090.0815.0018.13-0.06-0.05
Ohio St.B100.040.0860.0055.560.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.080.0861.9065.330.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.080.0830.0031.76-0.03-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.100.0654.5555.550.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0647.6248.04-0.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.050.0660.0062.710.010.02
Montana St.BSky0.100.0643.4844.83-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0614.2914.91-0.04-0.04
Weber St.BSky0.050.0666.6769.750.020.02
ArizonaP120.100.0679.1778.290.060.03
Washington St.P120.050.0634.7831.64-0.02-0.02
DenverSum0.040.0652.0049.300.00-0.00
IPFWSum0.090.0670.8368.660.040.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0622.2231.22-0.00-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.040.0658.3358.580.010.01
NevadaMWC0.090.0657.1455.360.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.090.0660.8759.830.020.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0617.6526.67-0.03-0.03
OregonP120.050.0679.1777.200.030.03
South DakotaSum0.090.0644.0043.56-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.040.0673.9174.640.020.03
UCLAP120.050.0656.5253.400.010.00
Western IllinoisSum0.040.0631.5832.04-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.090.0634.7832.39-0.03-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.090.0645.4551.69-0.010.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0631.8236.11-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0656.5257.060.000.01
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0642.3144.53-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.050.0661.9058.170.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.090.0654.1754.090.010.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0642.8641.34-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0655.0053.670.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.069.5210.67-0.04-0.05
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0660.0062.250.010.01
MaristMAAC0.090.0621.7424.25-0.05-0.03
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0680.0081.160.030.04
NiagaraMAAC0.090.0624.0024.61-0.05-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.0660.0057.650.020.01
RiderMAAC0.090.0640.0042.04-0.02-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.090.0640.9143.32-0.02-0.01
SienaMAAC0.000.0665.3864.970.000.02
South AlabamaSB0.090.0636.3636.29-0.03-0.02
Texas St.SB0.050.0640.0038.88-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.050.0669.5770.020.020.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0626.0928.41-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0670.8368.080.020.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.0650.0050.500.000.00
DePaulBE0.090.0633.3334.02-0.03-0.02
DrexelCAA0.090.0613.0416.42-0.07-0.04
HofstraCAA0.090.0666.6766.770.030.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.040.0613.0415.26-0.03-0.04
BrownIvy0.090.0631.5831.01-0.03-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.069.0912.26-0.04-0.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0652.1753.720.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.090.0625.0025.08-0.04-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0659.0955.160.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.090.0682.6181.130.060.03
La SalleA100.050.0619.0520.30-0.03-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.090.0647.8350.89-0.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.090.0625.0033.23-0.04-0.02
PennIvy0.050.0638.8937.69-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0683.3381.280.030.03
TennesseeSEC0.050.0650.0048.130.00-0.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.090.0614.2915.44-0.06-0.04
VillanovaBE0.000.0687.5086.850.000.04
WisconsinB100.050.0662.5057.000.010.01
YaleIvy0.090.0673.6874.620.040.03
MissouriSEC0.050.0633.3330.28-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.090.0539.1335.45-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.040.0566.6766.320.010.02
KentuckySEC0.000.0575.0072.610.000.02
MississippiSEC0.050.0562.5058.940.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.0536.8442.88-0.02-0.01
BaylorB120.090.0573.9168.450.040.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.040.0512.5013.27-0.03-0.04
CharlotteCUSA0.090.0537.5042.32-0.02-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.090.0560.8758.900.020.01
FurmanSC0.040.0556.0054.430.010.00
GeorgetownBE0.040.0556.0052.870.010.00
Georgia TechACC0.080.0554.1752.000.010.00
Kansas St.B120.040.0558.3356.290.010.01
LibertyBSth0.080.0534.7836.53-0.03-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.090.0547.8351.92-0.000.00
MaineAE0.040.0532.0031.16-0.02-0.02
MarylandB100.040.0587.5083.660.030.04
MercerSC0.080.0566.6767.110.030.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.040.0519.0525.90-0.03-0.03
NebraskaB100.040.0552.0050.760.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.0529.1733.11-0.04-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.040.0526.9228.60-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.040.0533.3336.31-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0552.1754.130.000.00
SyracuseACC0.040.0568.0064.090.020.02
UMass LowellAE0.040.0537.5037.69-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.090.0577.2773.930.050.03
USC UpstateASun0.090.0521.7422.42-0.05-0.03
VCUA100.040.0570.8371.050.020.02
West VirginiaB120.040.0579.1778.100.030.03
XavierBE0.040.0587.5081.850.030.03
Boise St.MWC0.050.0360.8760.440.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0366.6767.670.020.01
North DakotaBSky0.050.0345.0048.13-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0327.2726.45-0.02-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.0330.0035.92-0.00-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0340.0045.20-0.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0335.0034.83-0.02-0.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0354.1751.700.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0333.3330.63-0.02-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0327.2727.80-0.02-0.01
FIUCUSA0.040.0339.1342.98-0.01-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0350.0049.760.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.050.0336.3638.97-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0352.9452.100.000.00
IowaB100.050.0379.1778.880.030.02
LamarSlnd0.050.0330.0029.13-0.02-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0341.6741.18-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.040.0358.3360.710.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.040.0365.2268.600.010.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0372.7367.600.020.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0327.2728.16-0.02-0.01
RutgersB100.050.0321.7420.34-0.03-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0376.1972.370.030.01
UNLVMWC0.050.0352.1755.070.000.00
UTSACUSA0.050.0313.0412.96-0.04-0.02
WashingtonP120.000.0362.5060.140.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0347.6249.39-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0321.7422.75-0.03-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0340.0043.39-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0350.0052.870.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.050.0366.6763.300.020.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0350.0054.180.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.050.0350.0051.110.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.050.0372.7370.410.020.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0368.1865.170.020.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0345.4554.18-0.000.00
ToledoMAC0.050.0360.8762.080.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.050.0345.8341.63-0.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.040.0347.6249.28-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.040.0345.4546.08-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0331.8232.68-0.02-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0350.0052.940.000.00
ClemsonACC0.050.0358.3358.400.010.00
LipscombASun0.050.0328.0030.49-0.02-0.01
St. John'sBE0.050.0325.0023.45-0.02-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0375.0075.340.020.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0358.3359.970.010.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0373.0873.780.000.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0356.0056.510.000.00
George MasonA100.040.0333.3333.63-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0347.8348.57-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.040.0321.7424.60-0.02-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0372.7370.520.000.01
NJITASun0.000.0356.0055.640.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0350.0048.950.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0338.1037.67-0.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.040.0362.5057.730.010.00
UABCUSA0.000.0383.3379.820.000.02
UMKCWAC0.040.0328.5732.75-0.02-0.01