Tulsa

Conference:	Amer
Expected RPI:	89.0
Current RPI:	89
Expected SOS:	91
Current SOS:	91
Current Record:	19-12
Expected Record:	19-12
Current Conf Record:	12-7
Expected Conf Record:	12-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	8-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-1
Current OOC Record:	7-5
Expected OOC Record:	7-5
Expected OOC RPI:	153
Expected OOC SOS:	162

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
19-12	89.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tulsa.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Lamar (230.0)	Slnd	H	67-74	L	0%
11-13	Oral Roberts (255.0)	Sum	H	90-71	W	100%
11-16	Western Michigan (177.0)	MAC	N	74-81	W	100%
11-17	Iowa St. (144.0)	B12	N	78-80	L	0%
11-19	Illinois St. (85.0)	MVC	N	68-84	L	0%
11-25	Central Arkansas (223.0)	Slnd	H	92-72	W	100%
11-28	UTSA (187.0)	CUSA	H	100-96	W	100%
12-2	Illinois St. (85.0)	MVC	A	65-58	L	0%
12-9	Kansas St. (53.0)	B12	A	54-61	W	100%
12-14	Prairie View A&M (247.0)	SWAC	H	77-73	W	100%
12-16	Manhattan (228.0)	MAAC	H	80-66	W	100%
12-19	Oklahoma St. (88.0)	B12	A	71-59	L	0%
12-28	East Carolina (274.0)	Amer	H	79-53	W	100%
12-31	Tulane (175.0)	Amer	A	56-65	W	100%
1-3	Connecticut (123.0)	Amer	H	90-88	W	100%
1-6	Memphis (106.0)	Amer	A	76-67	L	0%
1-11	Houston (18.0)	Amer	A	104-71	L	0%
1-13	Wichita St. (16.0)	Amer	H	69-72	L	0%
1-17	Temple (52.0)	Amer	A	59-58	L	0%
1-20	Memphis (106.0)	Amer	H	64-51	W	100%
1-28	Wichita St. (16.0)	Amer	A	90-71	L	0%
2-1	SMU (113.0)	Amer	H	76-67	W	100%
2-4	South Florida (278.0)	Amer	A	54-63	W	100%
2-8	Tulane (175.0)	Amer	H	91-89	W	100%
2-15	Connecticut (123.0)	Amer	A	71-73	W	100%
2-18	South Florida (278.0)	Amer	H	73-61	W	100%
2-21	UCF (84.0)	Amer	H	70-61	W	100%
2-25	Cincinnati (6.0)	Amer	A	82-74	L	0%
3-1	East Carolina (274.0)	Amer	A	58-72	W	100%
3-4	Temple (52.0)	Amer	H	76-58	W	100%
3-9	Memphis (106.0)	Amer	N	64-67	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tulsa's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Tulsa's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Tulsa.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Tulsa	Amer	26.29	26.29	61.24	61.24	5.91	5.91
Memphis	Amer	5.57	5.57	61.29	61.29	1.26	1.26
Temple	Amer	3.98	3.98	53.33	53.33	0.27	0.27
Tulane	Amer	3.98	3.98	48.28	48.28	-0.14	-0.14
South Florida	Amer	3.97	3.97	33.33	33.33	-1.32	-1.32
Connecticut	Amer	3.95	3.95	46.67	46.67	-0.26	-0.26
Wichita St.	Amer	3.95	3.95	76.67	76.67	2.11	2.11
East Carolina	Amer	3.95	3.95	35.71	35.71	-1.13	-1.13
Illinois St.	MVC	3.23	3.23	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Houston	Amer	2.49	2.49	78.12	78.12	1.40	1.40
Cincinnati	Amer	2.48	2.48	87.88	87.88	1.88	1.88
UCF	Amer	2.46	2.46	61.29	61.29	0.56	0.56
SMU	Amer	2.42	2.42	53.12	53.12	0.15	0.15
Oklahoma St.	B12	1.79	1.79	56.25	56.25	0.22	0.22
Kansas St.	B12	1.74	1.74	68.75	68.75	0.65	0.65
Iowa St.	B12	1.71	1.71	40.00	40.00	-0.34	-0.34
Central Arkansas	Slnd	1.67	1.67	51.61	51.61	0.05	0.05
Lamar	Slnd	1.66	1.66	51.85	51.85	0.06	0.06
Oral Roberts	Sum	1.66	1.66	29.63	29.63	-0.68	-0.68
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	1.64	1.64	46.88	46.88	-0.10	-0.10
Manhattan	MAAC	1.61	1.61	46.67	46.67	-0.11	-0.11
UTSA	CUSA	1.61	1.61	55.17	55.17	0.17	0.17
Western Michigan	MAC	1.61	1.61	51.72	51.72	0.06	0.06
Oklahoma	B12	0.25	0.25	58.06	58.06	0.04	0.04
Baylor	B12	0.23	0.23	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Kansas	B12	0.20	0.20	79.41	79.41	0.12	0.12
TCU	B12	0.20	0.20	65.62	65.62	0.06	0.06
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.18	0.18	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.18	0.18	25.00	25.00	-0.09	-0.09
Texas	B12	0.18	0.18	57.58	57.58	0.03	0.03
West Virginia	B12	0.17	0.17	70.59	70.59	0.07	0.07
New Orleans	Slnd	0.17	0.17	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.16	0.16	63.33	63.33	0.04	0.04
Missouri St.	MVC	0.16	0.16	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Charlotte	CUSA	0.16	0.16	17.86	17.86	-0.10	-0.10
South Carolina	SEC	0.15	0.15	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.15	0.15	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.15	0.15	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.15	0.15	84.38	84.38	0.10	0.10
Little Rock	SB	0.15	0.15	20.00	20.00	-0.09	-0.09
Texas Tech	B12	0.15	0.15	72.73	72.73	0.07	0.07
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.13	0.13	10.71	10.71	-0.11	-0.11
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.13	0.13	80.00	80.00	0.08	0.08
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.13	0.13	60.71	60.71	0.03	0.03
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.13	0.13	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Arkansas	SEC	0.13	0.13	67.65	67.65	0.05	0.05
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.13	0.13	15.62	15.62	-0.09	-0.09
Bradley	MVC	0.13	0.13	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.13	0.13	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Siena	MAAC	0.12	0.12	25.00	25.00	-0.06	-0.06
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.11	0.11	30.77	30.77	-0.04	-0.04
UTEP	CUSA	0.11	0.11	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.11	0.11	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.11	0.11	80.00	80.00	0.06	0.06
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.11	0.11	12.50	12.50	-0.08	-0.08
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.11	0.11	32.00	32.00	-0.04	-0.04
Miami OH	MAC	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.11	0.11	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.10	0.10	32.35	32.35	-0.04	-0.04
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.10	0.10	58.62	58.62	0.02	0.02
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.10	0.10	8.00	8.00	-0.09	-0.09
Appalachian St.	SB	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.10	0.10	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Monmouth	MAAC	0.10	0.10	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Boise St.	MWC	0.10	0.10	73.33	73.33	0.05	0.05
UMKC	WAC	0.10	0.10	27.59	27.59	-0.05	-0.05
Arkansas St.	SB	0.10	0.10	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
Auburn	SEC	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Drake	MVC	0.10	0.10	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Valparaiso	MVC	0.10	0.10	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Villanova	BE	0.10	0.10	88.24	88.24	0.08	0.08
Oregon	P12	0.10	0.10	64.71	64.71	0.03	0.03
UAB	CUSA	0.10	0.10	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.10	0.10	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.10	0.10	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Mercer	SC	0.10	0.10	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
LSU	SEC	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Denver	Sum	0.09	0.09	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Western Illinois	Sum	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.08	0.08	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.08	0.08	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Iona	MAAC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.08	0.08	75.76	75.76	0.04	0.04
FIU	CUSA	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.08	0.08	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Fairfield	MAAC	0.08	0.08	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Georgia St.	SB	0.08	0.08	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
California	P12	0.08	0.08	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Stetson	ASun	0.08	0.08	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Arizona	P12	0.07	0.07	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
Drexel	CAA	0.07	0.07	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
George Washington	A10	0.07	0.07	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.07	0.07	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.07	0.07	13.33	13.33	-0.05	-0.05
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.07	0.07	12.50	12.50	-0.05	-0.05
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.07	0.07	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.07	0.07	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Albany	AE	0.07	0.07	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Bryant	NEC	0.07	0.07	9.68	9.68	-0.06	-0.06
Louisville	ACC	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Loyola MD	Pat	0.07	0.07	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.07	0.07	68.97	68.97	0.03	0.03
Samford	SC	0.07	0.07	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.06	0.06	73.33	73.33	0.03	0.03
Oakland	Horz	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	6.67	6.67	-0.05	-0.05
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
North Texas	CUSA	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.05	17.24	17.24	-0.04	-0.04
Rutgers	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Pepperdine	WCC	0.05	0.05	16.13	16.13	-0.04	-0.04
UNLV	MWC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.43	71.43	0.02	0.02
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.05	0.05	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
South Alabama	SB	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Louis	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Missouri	SEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Boston University	Pat	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
BYU	WCC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Colgate	Pat	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
College of Charleston	CAA	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Columbia	Ivy	0.05	0.05	26.92	26.92	-0.02	-0.02
Elon	CAA	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.05	87.88	87.88	0.04	0.04
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	22.22	22.22	-0.03	-0.03
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	82.76	82.76	0.03	0.03
Nevada	MWC	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Notre Dame	ACC	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Penn	Ivy	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.02	0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Stony Brook	AE	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Syracuse	ACC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Texas A&M	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Montana	BSky	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Chicago St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	3.33	3.33	-0.03	-0.03
Detroit	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Idaho	BSky	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.03	0.03	76.67	76.67	0.01	0.01
Texas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Utah Valley	WAC	0.03	0.03	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Hofstra	CAA	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Towson	CAA	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
William & Mary	CAA	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
American	Pat	0.02	0.02	20.00	20.00	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Cal Poly	BW	0.02	0.02	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.02	0.02	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.02	0.02	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Liberty	BSth	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.02	0.02	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
New Mexico	MWC	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.02	0.02	83.33	83.33	0.02	0.02
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.02	0.02	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Providence	BE	0.02	0.02	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
UC Irvine	BW	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.02	0.02	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
UMBC	AE	0.02	0.02	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
USC	P12	0.02	0.02	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
USC Upstate	ASun	0.02	0.02	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Utah	P12	0.02	0.02	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.02	0.02	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Florida	SEC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Xavier	BE	0.02	0.02	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02