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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Tulsa

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:58.0
Current RPI:58
Expected SOS:64
Current SOS:64
Current Record:20-11
Expected Record:20-11
Current Conf Record:12-7
Expected Conf Record:12-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-0
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:94
Expected OOC SOS:102



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-1158.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tulsa.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Central Arkansas (339.0)SlndH98-81W100%0.0
11-17Wichita St. (47.0)MVCH77-67W100%0.0
11-20Ohio (81.0)MACN90-88W100%0.0
11-22Indiana St. (172.0)MVCN59-67W100%0.0
11-23South Carolina (65.0)SECN83-75L0%0.0
11-28Arkansas Little Rock (42.0)SBH60-64L0%0.0
12-2Oklahoma St. (170.0)B12A56-66W100%0.0
12-5Oral Roberts (148.0)SumH68-70L0%0.0
12-8Iona (77.0)MAACH90-81W100%0.0
12-13Missouri St. (235.0)MVCA61-70W100%0.0
12-19Oregon St. (33.0)P12A76-71L0%0.0
12-22Northern Arizona (333.0)BSkyH90-55W100%0.0
12-29SMU (13.0)AmerH69-81L0%0.0
1-2Cincinnati (48.0)AmerA76-57L0%0.0
1-5East Carolina (217.0)AmerH55-43W100%0.0
1-10Tulane (227.0)AmerA67-81W100%0.0
1-14Connecticut (32.0)AmerH60-51W100%0.0
1-19East Carolina (217.0)AmerA69-84W100%0.0
1-24UCF (219.0)AmerH75-60W100%0.0
1-27Houston (87.0)AmerA81-66L0%0.0
1-30Tulane (227.0)AmerH62-48W100%0.0
2-4Temple (60.0)AmerA83-79L0%0.0
2-7Houston (87.0)AmerH77-63W100%0.0
2-10SMU (13.0)AmerA77-82W100%0.0
2-13Connecticut (32.0)AmerA75-73L0%0.0
2-18Cincinnati (48.0)AmerH70-68W100%0.0
2-21UCF (219.0)AmerA67-75W100%0.0
2-23Temple (60.0)AmerH74-55W100%0.0
2-28Memphis (139.0)AmerA92-82L0%0.0
3-5South Florida (230.0)AmerH84-74W100%0.0
3-11Memphis (139.0)AmerN67-89L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tulsa's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Tulsa's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Tulsa.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TulsaAmer26.2526.2564.2364.237.477.47
ConnecticutAmer4.164.1671.8871.881.821.82
MemphisAmer4.154.1553.1253.120.260.26
TulaneAmer4.144.1437.5037.50-1.03-1.03
TempleAmer4.054.0566.6766.671.351.35
East CarolinaAmer4.034.0340.0040.00-0.81-0.81
HoustonAmer4.034.0372.4172.411.801.80
CincinnatiAmer4.034.0370.0070.001.611.61
UCFAmer4.024.0242.8642.86-0.57-0.57
SMUAmer3.973.9785.7185.712.842.84
South FloridaAmer2.602.6025.0025.00-1.30-1.30
Missouri St.MVC1.801.8040.0040.00-0.36-0.36
Arkansas Little RockSB1.751.7586.6786.671.281.28
Indiana St.MVC1.721.7246.6746.67-0.11-0.11
Wichita St.MVC1.721.7276.6776.670.920.92
South CarolinaSEC1.711.7173.3373.330.800.80
Oral RobertsSum1.691.6939.2939.29-0.36-0.36
Central ArkansasSlnd1.661.6625.9325.93-0.80-0.80
IonaMAAC1.641.6470.9770.970.690.69
Northern ArizonaBSky1.641.6411.1111.11-1.27-1.27
Oklahoma St.B121.641.6438.7138.71-0.37-0.37
Oregon St.P121.641.6458.6258.620.280.28
OhioMAC1.611.6166.6766.670.540.54
DrakeMVC0.230.2320.0020.00-0.14-0.14
Nicholls St.Slnd0.210.2125.8125.81-0.10-0.10
EvansvilleMVC0.210.2172.7372.730.090.09
Illinois St.MVC0.180.1854.8454.840.020.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.180.1845.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.180.1863.6463.640.050.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.160.1648.3948.39-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.160.1612.9012.90-0.12-0.12
Southern IllinoisMVC0.160.1668.7568.750.060.06
IUPUISum0.160.1638.7138.71-0.04-0.04
OklahomaB120.150.1578.1278.120.090.09
ButlerBE0.150.1567.7467.740.050.05
CaliforniaP120.130.1369.7069.700.050.05
UtahP120.130.1375.7675.760.070.07
Louisiana MonroeSB0.130.1358.0658.060.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.130.1378.1278.120.070.07
George WashingtonA100.130.1369.7069.700.050.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
ColoradoP120.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
StanfordP120.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
Miami OHMAC0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.110.1125.9325.93-0.05-0.05
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.100.1022.5822.58-0.06-0.06
StetsonASun0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
TCUB120.100.1036.3636.36-0.03-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.100.1080.0080.000.060.06
Bowling GreenMAC0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.1024.2424.24-0.05-0.05
MinnesotaB100.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
MichiganB100.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
New HampshireAE0.100.1058.6258.620.020.02
Iowa St.B120.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
DelawareCAA0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
Appalachian St.SB0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.100.1022.5822.58-0.05-0.05
UT ArlingtonSB0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.100.1014.2914.29-0.07-0.07
ManhattanMAAC0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.100.1082.3582.350.060.06
TexasB120.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
Ohio St.B100.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
SouthernSWAC0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.090.0925.9325.93-0.05-0.05
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
IdahoBSky0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0877.4277.420.050.05
HamptonMEAC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
MassachusettsA100.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
USCP120.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
WyomingMWC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.080.0887.8887.880.060.06
QuinnipiacMAAC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
AkronMAC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
Rhode IslandA100.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
TroySB0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
San Diego St.MWC0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
Texas TechB120.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.080.0882.1482.140.050.05
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.080.0879.4179.410.040.04
SienaMAAC0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
MississippiSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.070.0711.1111.11-0.06-0.06
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0626.9226.92-0.03-0.03
MontanaBSky0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0620.8320.83-0.03-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Weber St.BSky0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
ArizonaP120.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
Washington St.P120.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
DenverSum0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
IPFWSum0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
South DakotaSum0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0629.1729.17-0.02-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Arizona St.P120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
DavidsonA100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
OregonP120.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
UC IrvineBW0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
UCLAP120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
NevadaMWC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
DePaulBE0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0579.3179.310.030.03
HofstraCAA0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
MissouriSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0544.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0518.5218.52-0.03-0.03
AuburnSEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
FloridaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Seton HallBE0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
BaylorB120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
La SalleA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.050.0547.0647.06-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
PennIvy0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.050.0539.3939.39-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
USC UpstateASun0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
VCUA100.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
VillanovaBE0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
WisconsinB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
XavierBE0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0513.7913.79-0.03-0.03
FurmanSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
MaineAE0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
MarylandB100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
MercerSC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0372.4172.410.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0356.0056.000.000.00
LamarSlnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0376.6776.670.020.02
UTSACUSA0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
IowaB100.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
LipscombASun0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
TowsonCAA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
NJITASun0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01