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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Elon

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:160.0
Current RPI:160
Expected SOS:123
Current SOS:123
Current Record:14-16
Expected Record:14-16
Current Conf Record:7-12
Expected Conf Record:7-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-1
Current OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:83
Expected OOC SOS:135



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-16160.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Elon.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Charlotte (234.0)CUSAA74-85W100%0.0
11-16Michigan (56.0)B10A88-68L0%0.0
11-21Syracuse (72.0)ACCA66-55L0%0.0
11-26Mount St. Mary's (245.0)NECH79-74W100%0.0
11-27Texas A&M Corpus Chris (84.0)SlndH81-85L0%0.0
11-30Kennesaw St. (263.0)ASunH103-93W100%0.0
12-4FIU (270.0)CUSAA71-77W100%0.0
12-16Alabama St. (265.0)SWACH91-74W100%0.0
12-19UNC Greensboro (237.0)SCH79-69W100%0.0
12-21UNC Asheville (137.0)BSthA81-86W100%0.0
12-28Duke (20.0)ACCA105-66L0%0.0
12-31Northeastern (109.0)CAAH79-86L0%0.0
1-2Drexel (247.0)CAAH83-78W100%0.0
1-7James Madison (103.0)CAAA73-79W100%0.0
1-9Hofstra (54.0)CAAH76-80L0%0.0
1-14UNC Wilmington (45.0)CAAH82-91L0%0.0
1-16College of Charleston (135.0)CAAA64-65W100%0.0
1-21William & Mary (67.0)CAAA89-67L0%0.0
1-23James Madison (103.0)CAAH64-82L0%0.0
1-28Hofstra (54.0)CAAA66-64L0%0.0
1-30Northeastern (109.0)CAAA67-71W100%0.0
2-4Delaware (274.0)CAAH83-56W100%0.0
2-6Towson (150.0)CAAH77-81L0%0.0
2-11UNC Wilmington (45.0)CAAA86-82L0%0.0
2-13College of Charleston (135.0)CAAH62-66L0%0.0
2-18Drexel (247.0)CAAA76-81W100%0.0
2-20Towson (150.0)CAAA67-56L0%0.0
2-25William & Mary (67.0)CAAH65-75L0%0.0
2-27Delaware (274.0)CAAA59-77W100%0.0
3-4Drexel (247.0)CAAN56-57L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Elon's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Elon's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Elon.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ElonCAA26.4226.4247.4447.44-1.35-1.35
DrexelCAA5.955.9518.5218.52-3.75-3.75
HofstraCAA4.474.4770.0070.001.791.79
UNC WilmingtonCAA4.424.4275.0075.002.212.21
NortheasternCAA4.384.3853.3353.330.290.29
James MadisonCAA4.384.3865.5265.521.361.36
College of CharlestonCAA4.384.3853.5753.570.310.31
William & MaryCAA4.374.3759.2659.260.810.81
DelawareCAA4.324.3225.0025.00-2.16-2.16
TowsonCAA4.324.3257.1457.140.620.62
UNC AshevilleBSth1.751.7566.6766.670.580.58
CharlotteCUSA1.751.7543.7543.75-0.22-0.22
FIUCUSA1.751.7537.9337.93-0.42-0.42
Mount St. Mary'sNEC1.721.7243.7543.75-0.22-0.22
SyracuseACC1.721.7258.0658.060.280.28
DukeACC1.691.6968.7568.750.630.63
MichiganB101.691.6962.5062.500.420.42
Alabama St.SWAC1.671.6742.8642.86-0.24-0.24
Kennesaw St.ASun1.671.6732.1432.14-0.60-0.60
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd1.671.6775.8675.860.860.86
UNC GreensboroSC1.671.6739.2939.29-0.36-0.36
North Carolina St.ACC0.270.2748.4848.48-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.220.2264.2964.290.060.06
FurmanSC0.190.1951.6151.610.010.01
La SalleA100.190.1926.6726.67-0.09-0.09
CampbellBSth0.190.1933.3333.33-0.06-0.06
East CarolinaAmer0.190.1937.5037.50-0.05-0.05
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.190.1954.8454.840.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.190.1951.5251.520.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.180.1822.5822.58-0.10-0.10
Miami FLACC0.180.1878.1278.120.100.10
RadfordBSth0.160.1648.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.160.1636.6736.67-0.04-0.04
GeorgetownBE0.160.1645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.160.1640.0040.00-0.03-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
Western CarolinaSC0.140.1443.3343.33-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.140.1468.7568.750.050.05
The CitadelSC0.140.1424.1424.14-0.07-0.07
LibertyBSth0.140.1434.4834.48-0.04-0.04
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.140.1457.6957.690.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.140.1462.8662.860.030.03
South CarolinaSEC0.140.1474.1974.190.070.07
Penn St.B100.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.130.1370.9770.970.060.06
Boston CollegeACC0.130.1321.8821.88-0.07-0.07
North CarolinaACC0.130.1382.3582.350.080.08
Florida St.ACC0.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.110.1184.3884.380.080.08
MercerSC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.110.1155.1755.170.010.01
BradleyMVC0.110.1112.9012.90-0.08-0.08
LipscombASun0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
UABCUSA0.110.1180.6580.650.070.07
WinthropBSth0.110.1168.9768.970.040.04
George MasonA100.110.1134.3834.38-0.03-0.03
VirginiaACC0.110.1178.7978.790.060.06
UTEPCUSA0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
UTSACUSA0.110.1113.3313.33-0.08-0.08
LouisvilleACC0.110.1174.1974.190.050.05
Wake ForestACC0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
IndianaB100.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
Stony BrookAE0.100.1080.0080.000.060.06
RiceCUSA0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
PittsburghACC0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
BryantNEC0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
North FloridaASun0.090.0963.3363.330.020.02
StetsonASun0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
LSUSEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
NavyPat0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.080.0879.4179.410.050.05
PennIvy0.080.0837.0437.04-0.02-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0879.4179.410.050.05
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.080.0882.1482.140.050.05
West VirginiaB120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
DavidsonA100.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0816.6716.67-0.05-0.05
Houston BaptistSlnd0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
UMBCAE0.080.0821.8821.88-0.05-0.05
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Virginia TechACC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
WisconsinB100.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.080.0873.3373.330.040.04
Appalachian St.SB0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Michigan St.B100.080.0885.2985.290.050.05
SienaMAAC0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Notre DameACC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
MarylandB100.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
PurdueB100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0624.2424.24-0.03-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
HamptonMEAC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
HowardMEAC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0622.8622.86-0.03-0.03
NJITASun0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
VMISC0.060.0622.2222.22-0.03-0.03
WoffordSC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0622.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0665.5265.520.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0656.0056.000.010.01
MaristMAAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
MississippiSEC0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.060.0624.2424.24-0.03-0.03
TempleAmer0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
UMKCWAC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
VillanovaBE0.060.0685.2985.290.040.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
TexasB120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
LehighPat0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
IowaB100.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
MinnesotaB100.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
WashingtonP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Arizona St.P120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.030.033.453.45-0.03-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
IPFWSum0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
IUPUISum0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
UCFAmer0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0320.8320.83-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.030.0344.1244.12-0.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
IllinoisB100.030.0344.1244.12-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
NebraskaB100.030.0347.0647.06-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
UtahP120.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
XavierBE0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
YaleIvy0.030.0377.7877.780.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01