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Through games of Nov 25, 2014.


Elon

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:220.4
Current RPI:228
Expected SOS:210
Current SOS:223
Current Record:2-2
Expected Record:12-16
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-4
Current OOC Record:2-2
Expected OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC RPI:219
Expected OOC SOS:307



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-753.00.01%
19-9104.00.06%
18-10113.80.39%
17-11128.51.57%
16-12143.93.91%
15-13162.57.23%
14-14181.511.59%
13-15201.016.19%
12-16221.818.34%
11-17241.116.54%
10-18261.011.82%
9-19278.67.41%
8-20295.83.40%
7-21308.21.14%
6-22319.30.32%
5-23330.80.06%
4-24340.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Elon.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Florida Atlantic (240.1)CUSAH64-58W100%0.0
11-16Charlotte (70.3)CUSAH60-73L0%0.0
11-22Northwestern (159.1)B10A68-67L0%0.0
11-25Morgan St. (279.1)MEACN74-73W100%0.0
11-30Miami OH (259.2)MACA0-049%-0.4
12-11Missouri (158.8)SECA0-022%-9.5
12-15Duke (3.6)ACCA0-01%-29.5
12-20UNC Greensboro (323.1)SCA0-060%2.9
12-22Kennesaw St. (318.5)ASunA0-066%4.8
12-28Marist (273.9)MAACH0-069%5.9
1-3Drexel (231.4)CAAA0-039%-3.5
1-5Towson (153.7)CAAA0-028%-6.9
1-8William & Mary (106.0)CAAH0-043%-2.1
1-10Hofstra (106.2)CAAH0-037%-3.9
1-14College of Charleston (147.4)CAAH0-045%-1.6
1-17James Madison (214.3)CAAA0-038%-3.8
1-22Towson (153.7)CAAH0-051%0.3
1-24Delaware (313.4)CAAH0-082%10.9
1-28UNC Wilmington (169.9)CAAA0-033%-5.3
1-31Northeastern (59.4)CAAA0-012%-14.0
2-5Drexel (231.4)CAAH0-062%3.7
2-7Hofstra (106.2)CAAA0-018%-11.1
2-11William & Mary (106.0)CAAA0-022%-9.3
2-14James Madison (214.3)CAAH0-061%3.4
2-18College of Charleston (147.4)CAAA0-023%-8.8
2-21Delaware (313.4)CAAA0-062%3.7
2-26Northeastern (59.4)CAAH0-029%-6.8
2-28UNC Wilmington (169.9)CAAH0-056%1.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Elon's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Elon's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Elon.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ElonCAA30.8326.4044.4444.75-3.43-2.77
College of CharlestonCAA0.004.5840.0051.53-0.000.14
TowsonCAA1.254.5780.0057.840.750.72
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.004.5766.6746.510.00-0.32
HofstraCAA0.004.5560.0066.370.001.49
James MadisonCAA0.004.5575.0047.570.00-0.22
NortheasternCAA0.004.55100.0071.720.001.97
DelawareCAA0.004.540.0017.35-0.00-2.96
DrexelCAA0.004.5320.0034.32-0.00-1.42
William & MaryCAA0.004.5375.0055.550.000.50
CharlotteCUSA12.501.8850.0067.190.000.65
UNC GreensboroSC0.001.850.0027.55-0.00-0.83
Morgan St.MEAC12.501.850.0040.40-12.50-0.35
NorthwesternB1012.501.82100.0042.0212.50-0.29
Miami OHMAC1.251.8250.0029.280.00-0.75
Florida AtlanticCUSA12.501.810.0039.82-12.50-0.37
DukeACC0.001.79100.0084.470.001.23
Kennesaw St.ASun0.001.7920.0026.01-0.00-0.86
MaristMAAC0.001.790.0032.01-0.00-0.64
MissouriSEC0.001.7940.0035.28-0.00-0.53
Old DominionCUSA0.000.2280.0074.570.000.11
Miami FLACC2.500.21100.0081.282.500.13
East CarolinaAmer0.000.1933.3333.84-0.00-0.06
RichmondA100.000.1866.6766.740.000.06
La SalleA100.000.18100.0056.940.000.03
CampbellBSth0.000.180.0031.79-0.00-0.07
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.180.0027.54-0.00-0.08
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.1825.0047.03-0.00-0.01
WoffordSC0.000.1680.0076.700.000.08
VMISC0.000.1633.3338.23-0.00-0.04
RiceCUSA0.000.1633.3330.02-0.00-0.06
LibertyBSth0.000.1625.0029.87-0.00-0.06
High PointBSth0.000.1675.0056.990.000.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.16100.0069.870.000.06
Penn St.B102.500.1583.3348.031.67-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.150.0024.22-0.00-0.08
DavidsonA100.000.1550.0053.610.000.01
FurmanSC0.000.1533.3323.56-0.00-0.08
ManhattanMAAC0.000.1525.0049.91-0.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.000.1560.0049.930.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.1540.0033.22-0.00-0.05
FIUCUSA0.000.1350.0043.100.00-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.1366.6750.750.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.1375.0064.660.000.04
IonaMAAC0.000.1375.0073.890.000.06
OhioMAC0.000.1366.6752.600.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.1266.6749.780.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.1225.0040.73-0.00-0.02
The CitadelSC0.000.120.0029.35-0.00-0.05
ArmyPat0.000.12100.0069.380.000.05
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.1233.3337.42-0.00-0.03
MonmouthMAAC0.000.1250.0053.310.000.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.1225.0020.71-0.00-0.07
IllinoisB100.000.12100.0065.710.000.04
Cal PolyBW0.000.1250.0034.200.00-0.04
Ohio St.B100.000.12100.0074.680.000.06
Western MichiganMAC0.000.1266.6753.920.000.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.120.0030.42-0.00-0.05
NavyPat0.000.1220.0031.41-0.00-0.04
Texas A&MSEC0.000.1275.0067.070.000.04
HowardMEAC0.000.1025.0046.48-0.00-0.01
FloridaSEC0.000.1066.6771.550.000.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0966.6749.540.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.000.0933.3344.17-0.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.090.0032.66-0.00-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.000.090.0046.09-0.00-0.01
MercerSC0.000.0933.3353.13-0.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0960.0037.460.00-0.02
SamfordSC0.000.0940.0040.15-0.00-0.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0966.6759.490.000.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.09100.0051.400.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.09100.0079.500.000.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0933.3346.11-0.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.09100.0079.080.000.05
Kent St.MAC0.000.0975.0064.740.000.03
RiderMAAC0.000.0950.0047.880.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.000.090.0042.35-0.00-0.01
North FloridaASun1.250.0925.0048.23-0.62-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0933.3340.07-0.00-0.02
HarvardIvy2.080.0966.6774.280.690.04
North TexasCUSA0.000.0966.6739.910.00-0.02
StanfordP120.000.0980.0070.420.000.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0920.0030.80-0.00-0.03
UMBCAE0.000.090.0028.76-0.00-0.04
AlabamaSEC0.000.0980.0058.990.000.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.0933.3346.41-0.00-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.09100.0071.500.000.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.090.0035.72-0.00-0.03
SyracuseACC0.000.0980.0067.890.000.03
GeorgetownBE0.000.09100.0057.240.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0975.0072.430.000.04
WisconsinB100.000.09100.0084.260.000.06
Georgia TechACC0.000.09100.0049.350.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.000.0960.0056.190.000.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0975.0055.300.000.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0950.0025.530.00-0.04
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0975.0070.310.000.04
Florida St.ACC0.000.0940.0039.52-0.00-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.09100.0061.980.000.02
VirginiaACC0.000.09100.0075.610.000.04
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0725.0025.51-0.00-0.03
ColoradoP120.000.0675.0059.500.000.01
CornellIvy0.000.0633.3336.17-0.00-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0666.6757.980.000.01
USCP120.000.0650.0028.900.00-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0625.0050.46-0.000.00
GeorgiaSEC2.080.0675.0055.821.040.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0640.0038.29-0.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0680.0070.940.000.03
UTEPCUSA0.000.06100.0070.870.000.03
UTSACUSA0.000.0633.3328.79-0.00-0.03
IndianaB100.000.0680.0058.080.000.01
AkronMAC0.000.0660.0066.000.000.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.06100.0062.250.000.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0620.0038.11-0.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0666.6755.870.000.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0620.0045.09-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0614.2929.93-0.00-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0633.3329.06-0.00-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.06100.0044.550.00-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0650.0055.650.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0625.0043.52-0.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0620.0042.26-0.00-0.01
SienaMAAC0.000.0633.3359.03-0.000.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0675.0052.460.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.0666.6754.040.000.00
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0078.020.000.03
PresbyterianBSth0.000.060.0022.61-0.00-0.03
ButlerBE0.000.06100.0058.780.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0053.790.000.00
UMKCWAC0.000.0625.0046.58-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0640.0038.71-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0027.32-0.00-0.03
ToledoMAC0.000.0640.0060.63-0.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0650.0031.510.00-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.06100.0081.020.000.04
AuburnSEC0.000.0650.0035.490.00-0.02
IowaB100.000.0660.0064.290.000.02
KentuckySEC0.000.06100.0089.550.000.05
MichiganB100.000.0675.0066.400.000.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.06100.0047.350.00-0.00
PurdueB100.000.0680.0067.040.000.02
South CarolinaSEC1.250.0640.0050.32-0.250.00
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0625.0055.20-0.000.01
ColgatePat0.000.0625.0039.71-0.00-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0675.0064.500.000.02
DetroitHorz0.000.0660.0059.230.000.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0640.0058.90-0.000.01
George MasonA100.000.0620.0022.51-0.00-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0620.0043.52-0.00-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.060.0044.90-0.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0680.0060.610.000.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0680.0071.450.000.02
RadfordBSth0.000.0633.3352.31-0.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0633.3333.44-0.00-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0633.3340.34-0.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0675.0054.260.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.0650.0066.080.000.02
WagnerNEC0.000.060.0043.63-0.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0660.0047.180.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.000.06100.0070.280.000.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.03100.0060.830.000.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.030.0050.30-0.000.00
UCFAmer0.000.03100.0048.890.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0032.98-0.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.000.0333.3336.66-0.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0340.0044.83-0.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.000.0375.0069.250.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0375.0071.680.000.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0366.6762.900.000.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0021.34-0.00-0.02
HawaiiBW0.000.0366.6754.720.000.00
HoustonAmer1.250.0366.6760.350.420.01
IPFWSum0.000.0366.6761.780.000.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0350.0037.650.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.030.0064.97-0.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0350.0046.130.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC1.250.03100.0073.991.250.01
PennIvy0.000.030.0025.91-0.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0340.0033.07-0.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0020.18-0.00-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0025.13-0.00-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.000.0333.3367.26-0.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.030.0029.35-0.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0366.6756.780.000.00
ArizonaP120.000.03100.0075.900.000.02
BrownIvy1.250.0320.0038.78-0.75-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd1.250.030.0025.45-1.25-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0320.0031.41-0.00-0.01
MarylandB100.000.03100.0072.100.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0375.0052.730.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0017.79-0.00-0.02
NebraskaB100.000.0375.0053.250.000.00
OklahomaB120.000.0366.6756.850.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.000.03100.0055.110.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0325.0036.61-0.00-0.01
RutgersB100.000.0350.0024.400.00-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0325.0045.33-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0043.100.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.03100.0052.850.000.00
XavierBE0.000.03100.0079.400.000.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0360.0052.120.000.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0366.6772.650.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0350.0050.280.000.00
St. John'sBE0.000.03100.0052.030.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0333.3350.48-0.000.00