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Through games of Feb 11, 2016.


Elon

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:139.8
Current RPI:130
Expected SOS:115
Current SOS:100
Current Record:12-12
Expected Record:15-14
Current Conf Record:5-8
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-1
Current OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:91
Expected OOC SOS:160



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-12102.93.16%
16-13118.015.56%
15-14133.032.68%
14-15147.631.02%
13-16162.214.75%
12-17176.82.82%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Elon.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Charlotte (232.8)CUSAA74-85W100%0.0
11-16Michigan (47.5)B10A88-68L0%0.0
11-21Syracuse (45.9)ACCA66-55L0%0.0
11-26Mount St. Mary's (229.4)NECH79-74W100%0.0
11-27Texas A&M Corpus Chris (112.0)SlndH81-85L0%0.0
11-30Kennesaw St. (283.4)ASunH103-93W100%0.0
12-4FIU (242.9)CUSAA71-77W100%0.0
12-16Alabama St. (305.5)SWACH91-74W100%0.0
12-19UNC Greensboro (285.3)SCH79-69W100%0.0
12-21UNC Asheville (150.3)BSthA81-86W100%0.0
12-28Duke (17.2)ACCA105-66L0%0.0
12-31Northeastern (140.7)CAAH79-86L0%0.0
1-2Drexel (274.6)CAAH83-78W100%0.0
1-7James Madison (78.2)CAAA73-79W100%0.0
1-9Hofstra (67.4)CAAH76-80L0%0.0
1-14UNC Wilmington (58.5)CAAH82-91L0%0.0
1-16College of Charleston (103.4)CAAA64-65W100%0.0
1-21William & Mary (50.7)CAAA89-67L0%0.0
1-23James Madison (78.2)CAAH64-82L0%0.0
1-28Hofstra (67.4)CAAA66-64L0%0.0
1-30Northeastern (140.7)CAAA67-71W100%0.0
2-4Delaware (268.7)CAAH83-56W100%0.0
2-6Towson (166.5)CAAH77-81L0%0.0
2-11UNC Wilmington (58.5)CAAA86-82L0%0.0
2-13College of Charleston (103.4)CAAH0-050%-0.0
2-18Drexel (274.6)CAAA0-060%2.9
2-20Towson (166.5)CAAA0-039%-3.1
2-25William & Mary (50.7)CAAH0-039%-2.9
2-27Delaware (268.7)CAAA0-063%3.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Elon's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Elon's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Elon.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ElonCAA26.4126.4150.0050.75-0.000.40
James MadisonCAA4.924.4873.9172.842.352.05
DrexelCAA2.924.4413.6416.15-2.13-3.01
NortheasternCAA4.844.4247.8348.50-0.21-0.13
DelawareCAA2.884.4226.0925.42-1.38-2.17
HofstraCAA4.834.4263.6464.311.321.26
TowsonCAA2.834.4260.8756.030.620.53
College of CharlestonCAA2.834.4163.6461.510.771.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA4.824.4175.0071.852.411.93
William & MaryCAA2.874.4166.6766.060.961.42
CharlotteCUSA2.211.8139.1343.73-0.48-0.23
FIUCUSA2.211.8140.9144.52-0.40-0.20
UNC AshevilleBSth2.131.7965.2265.800.650.56
Mount St. Mary'sNEC2.171.7844.0047.66-0.26-0.08
SyracuseACC2.171.7866.6762.890.720.46
DukeACC2.121.7573.9170.901.020.73
MichiganB102.131.7569.5765.600.830.55
Alabama St.SWAC2.081.7230.0034.53-0.83-0.53
Kennesaw St.ASun2.081.7226.0927.36-1.00-0.78
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd2.081.7275.0071.341.040.74
UNC GreensboroSC2.081.7227.2729.46-0.95-0.71
North Carolina St.ACC0.310.2650.0048.950.00-0.01
CampbellBSth0.270.2131.8232.08-0.10-0.08
East CarolinaAmer0.270.2141.6739.49-0.04-0.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.260.2026.0927.89-0.12-0.09
Miami FLACC0.260.2082.6177.580.170.11
MarshallCUSA0.260.2050.0051.110.000.00
High PointBSth0.180.1957.1459.870.030.04
RadfordBSth0.260.1852.1754.100.010.02
La SalleA100.180.1819.0520.30-0.11-0.11
Western MichiganMAC0.260.1831.8232.68-0.10-0.06
FurmanSC0.270.1856.0054.430.030.02
GeorgetownBE0.270.1856.0052.870.030.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.130.1752.1753.720.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.210.1733.3336.31-0.07-0.05
East Tennessee St.SC0.230.1660.8760.240.050.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.140.1557.1457.670.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.180.1531.8234.54-0.07-0.05
The CitadelSC0.130.1530.4329.49-0.05-0.06
Old DominionCUSA0.180.1558.3363.180.030.04
Boston CollegeACC0.130.1429.1726.69-0.05-0.07
Florida St.ACC0.130.1466.6763.300.040.04
North CarolinaACC0.090.1483.3378.380.060.08
LibertyBSth0.090.1334.7836.53-0.03-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.140.1283.3383.710.090.08
MercerSC0.140.1266.6767.110.050.04
IonaMAAC0.090.1260.8760.670.020.03
South CarolinaSEC0.130.1286.9680.420.100.07
VirginiaACC0.090.1283.3378.460.060.07
LipscombASun0.130.1228.0030.49-0.06-0.05
Penn St.B100.130.1250.0046.770.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.090.1212.0011.95-0.07-0.09
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.130.1268.1867.730.050.04
UABCUSA0.140.1283.3379.820.090.07
UTSACUSA0.090.1213.0412.96-0.07-0.09
George MasonA100.130.1233.3333.63-0.04-0.04
Stony BrookAE0.170.1282.6183.010.110.08
LouisvilleACC0.090.1179.1775.990.050.06
Wake ForestACC0.130.1141.6739.90-0.02-0.02
BryantNEC0.130.1124.0024.92-0.07-0.06
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0947.8348.57-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.090.0962.5059.080.020.02
NavyPat0.090.0964.0064.460.030.03
SamfordSC0.090.0940.0041.68-0.02-0.02
WinthropBSth0.090.0966.6763.780.030.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.090.0950.0052.870.000.01
North FloridaASun0.130.0962.5064.120.030.03
StetsonASun0.090.0922.7327.39-0.05-0.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.090.0950.0049.760.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.090.0961.9058.170.020.01
Texas A&MSEC0.130.0975.0075.340.070.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.090.0945.4554.18-0.010.01
West VirginiaB120.130.0979.1778.100.070.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.099.0912.26-0.07-0.07
IndianaB100.130.0980.0075.690.080.04
WisconsinB100.090.0962.5057.000.020.01
Appalachian St.SB0.130.0925.0028.15-0.07-0.04
BuffaloMAC0.090.0956.5257.060.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.080.0933.3335.18-0.03-0.03
SienaMAAC0.130.0965.3864.970.040.03
St. BonaventureA100.130.0972.7370.410.060.04
UMBCAE0.080.0923.0825.87-0.04-0.04
UTEPCUSA0.090.0954.1754.200.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.130.0941.6742.39-0.02-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.130.0950.0050.500.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.130.0952.0048.920.01-0.00
Michigan St.B100.130.0980.0081.560.080.05
LIU BrooklynNEC0.130.0950.0051.280.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0931.8232.46-0.00-0.03
RiceCUSA0.040.0927.2728.16-0.02-0.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.090.0945.4546.08-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.080.0987.5083.660.060.06
PittsburghACC0.040.0872.7367.600.020.03
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0647.6249.39-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.050.0686.9682.160.030.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0650.0049.320.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.050.0659.0961.280.010.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0636.3638.97-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.090.0628.5732.75-0.04-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.090.0633.3334.95-0.03-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0635.0034.83-0.00-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0636.8442.88-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0640.0040.34-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.0624.0025.68-0.05-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.100.0640.0042.85-0.02-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.090.0627.2727.80-0.04-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0615.0018.13-0.03-0.04
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0652.9452.100.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0650.0054.180.000.01
LongwoodBSth0.090.0621.7424.60-0.05-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.100.0620.0022.25-0.06-0.03
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0680.0081.160.030.04
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0626.3232.40-0.02-0.02
NJITASun0.090.0656.0055.640.010.01
PennIvy0.050.0638.8937.69-0.01-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.069.0917.14-0.04-0.04
PresbyterianBSth0.040.0623.8125.49-0.02-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0683.3381.280.030.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0645.0049.27-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.050.0630.4328.20-0.02-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0652.1754.130.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.050.0661.9065.330.010.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0672.2275.600.020.03
USC UpstateASun0.090.0621.7422.42-0.05-0.03
VMISC0.090.0619.0519.67-0.06-0.04
WoffordSC0.050.0645.8348.12-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.090.0625.0025.08-0.04-0.03
TexasB120.090.0666.6762.200.030.01
CanisiusMAAC0.090.0642.3144.53-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.040.0666.6765.240.010.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.040.0614.2920.64-0.03-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.090.0650.0049.480.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.040.0621.7424.25-0.02-0.03
MississippiSEC0.040.0662.5058.940.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.040.0619.0525.90-0.03-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.040.0645.8342.30-0.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.040.0620.0019.73-0.03-0.04
TempleAmer0.040.0665.2262.370.010.01
VillanovaBE0.040.0687.5086.850.030.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.0629.1733.11-0.04-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.090.0624.0026.44-0.04-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.090.0672.7370.520.040.02
Southern MissCUSA0.090.0630.0031.76-0.04-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.080.0656.0056.510.010.01
DetroitHorz0.080.0645.4543.87-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.080.0635.0038.57-0.02-0.01
IowaB100.040.0679.1778.880.030.03
Miami OHMAC0.080.0634.7833.02-0.03-0.02
MinnesotaB100.090.0625.0027.26-0.04-0.03
PurdueB100.040.0680.0077.910.030.03
RichmondA100.080.0656.5255.820.010.01
VermontAE0.080.0652.0054.860.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.090.0670.8370.130.040.02
Ohio St.B100.040.0660.0055.560.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.040.0612.5013.27-0.03-0.04
ClemsonACC0.090.0658.3358.400.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.090.0654.1752.000.010.00
LehighPat0.080.0639.1342.83-0.02-0.01
Notre DameACC0.090.0670.8367.930.040.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0626.9228.60-0.04-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.040.0640.0043.49-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.040.0652.1751.830.000.00
WagnerNEC0.080.0660.8762.520.020.01
WashingtonP120.080.0662.5060.140.020.01
AlabamaSEC0.040.0360.8755.980.010.00
Arizona St.P120.040.0354.1751.700.000.00
BelmontOVC0.040.0368.0066.640.020.01
Cal PolyBW0.050.0328.5734.11-0.02-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0325.0029.89-0.02-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.050.034.357.72-0.05-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0372.0073.080.020.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.040.0343.4845.21-0.01-0.00
IPFWSum0.050.0370.8368.660.020.01
IUPUISum0.040.0338.4638.50-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0324.0024.16-0.03-0.02
LamarSlnd0.050.0330.0029.13-0.02-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.040.0345.8343.78-0.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0322.2231.22-0.03-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0318.1821.11-0.03-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0317.6526.67-0.03-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0314.2924.90-0.04-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.040.0350.0048.130.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.040.0368.1865.170.020.01
Texas St.SB0.050.0340.0038.88-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.050.0350.0044.650.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0360.0057.650.010.00
IllinoisB100.040.0345.8344.07-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.040.0352.0050.760.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.040.0331.8235.12-0.02-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0364.0062.090.000.01
RutgersB100.040.0321.7420.34-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.040.0386.9682.920.030.02
XavierBE0.040.0387.5081.850.030.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.040.0330.4332.26-0.02-0.01
AmericanPat0.040.0329.1731.19-0.02-0.01
BucknellPat0.040.0352.1754.940.000.00
ColgatePat0.040.0343.4844.90-0.01-0.00
CornellIvy0.040.0342.1140.24-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.040.0342.8641.34-0.01-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.040.0379.1777.510.020.02
KentuckySEC0.040.0375.0072.610.020.01
Long Beach St.BW0.040.0347.8351.92-0.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.040.0343.4844.83-0.01-0.00
St. John'sBE0.040.0325.0023.45-0.02-0.01
UtahP120.040.0370.8368.520.020.01
Utah St.MWC0.040.0347.6249.28-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.040.0370.8371.050.020.01
YaleIvy0.040.0373.6874.620.020.01