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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Elon

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:161.0
Current RPI:161
Expected SOS:188
Current SOS:188
Current Record:16-14
Expected Record:16-14
Current Conf Record:10-9
Expected Conf Record:10-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-4
Current OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:185
Expected OOC SOS:284



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-14161.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Elon.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Charlotte (240.0)CUSAH95-100L0%0.0
11-17South Florida (316.0)AmerA61-74W100%0.0
11-23Illinois Chicago (249.0)HorzN80-91W100%0.0
11-25Northern Illinois (241.0)MACA80-85W100%0.0
11-26Cal Poly (297.0)BWN66-72W100%0.0
11-30FIU (338.0)CUSAH84-81W100%0.0
12-4Georgetown (106.0)BEA77-74L0%0.0
12-6UNC Asheville (73.0)BSthH67-78L0%0.0
12-10Radford (227.0)BSthA68-56L0%0.0
12-18Saint Peter's (130.0)MAACA53-68W100%0.0
12-21Duke (6.0)ACCN61-72L0%0.0
12-31College of Charleston (64.0)CAAH54-66L0%0.0
1-2UNC Wilmington (27.0)CAAA79-63L0%0.0
1-5William & Mary (110.0)CAAA88-85L0%0.0
1-7Towson (88.0)CAAH72-61W100%0.0
1-12Hofstra (196.0)CAAH96-80W100%0.0
1-14James Madison (255.0)CAAA60-59L0%0.0
1-19Drexel (308.0)CAAH93-73W100%0.0
1-21William & Mary (110.0)CAAH71-62W100%0.0
1-26Northeastern (136.0)CAAA49-51W100%0.0
1-28Hofstra (196.0)CAAA70-84W100%0.0
2-2James Madison (255.0)CAAH67-61W100%0.0
2-4College of Charleston (64.0)CAAA71-58L0%0.0
2-9Delaware (235.0)CAAA76-74L0%0.0
2-11UNC Wilmington (27.0)CAAH77-76W100%0.0
2-16Towson (88.0)CAAA85-66L0%0.0
2-18Drexel (308.0)CAAA56-65W100%0.0
2-23Northeastern (136.0)CAAH104-105L0%0.0
2-25Delaware (235.0)CAAH81-59W100%0.0
3-4William & Mary (110.0)CAAN71-66L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Elon's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Elon's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Elon.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ElonCAA26.4026.4055.0755.072.682.68
William & MaryCAA5.925.9250.0050.000.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA4.464.4686.6786.673.273.27
College of CharlestonCAA4.404.4070.9770.971.851.85
James MadisonCAA4.384.3826.6726.67-2.04-2.04
DelawareCAA4.384.3834.4834.48-1.36-1.36
TowsonCAA4.354.3560.0060.000.870.87
HofstraCAA4.304.3048.2848.28-0.15-0.15
DrexelCAA4.294.2927.5927.59-1.92-1.92
NortheasternCAA4.294.2948.2848.28-0.15-0.15
Northern IllinoisMAC1.781.7842.8642.86-0.25-0.25
RadfordBSth1.771.7737.9337.93-0.43-0.43
DukeACC1.751.7576.4776.470.930.93
South FloridaAmer1.751.7524.1424.14-0.90-0.90
CharlotteCUSA1.751.7539.2939.29-0.37-0.37
FIUCUSA1.721.7217.8617.86-1.11-1.11
Illinois ChicagoHorz1.721.7243.3343.33-0.23-0.23
Cal PolyBW1.721.7232.1432.14-0.62-0.62
UNC AshevilleBSth1.721.7268.9768.970.650.65
GeorgetownBE1.671.6741.9441.94-0.27-0.27
Saint Peter'sMAAC1.671.6761.2961.290.380.38
Old DominionCUSA0.280.2861.2961.290.060.06
LibertyBSth0.230.2355.1755.170.020.02
CampbellBSth0.220.2245.1645.16-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.200.2010.7110.71-0.16-0.16
East CarolinaAmer0.190.1945.4545.45-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.180.1864.7164.710.050.05
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.170.1728.5728.57-0.07-0.07
High PointBSth0.160.1642.8642.86-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.160.1614.2914.29-0.12-0.12
ConnecticutAmer0.160.1646.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.160.1648.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.160.1658.0658.060.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.150.1559.3859.380.030.03
Central MichiganMAC0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
North TexasCUSA0.140.1421.4321.43-0.08-0.08
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.140.1487.8887.880.100.10
RiceCUSA0.140.1464.5264.520.040.04
LouisvilleACC0.130.1375.0075.000.070.07
RiderMAAC0.130.1354.5554.550.010.01
SienaMAAC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
La SalleA100.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.130.1346.4346.43-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.130.1374.1974.190.060.06
MaristMAAC0.130.1325.0025.00-0.06-0.06
UABCUSA0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.110.1161.7661.760.030.03
Miami OHMAC0.110.1130.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
WinthropBSth0.110.1180.0080.000.070.07
Rhode IslandA100.110.1172.7372.730.050.05
ToledoMAC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
BradleyMVC0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
OaklandHorz0.110.1173.3373.330.050.05
VermontAE0.110.1184.8584.850.070.07
UCFAmer0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
ManhattanMAAC0.110.1131.2531.25-0.04-0.04
MonmouthMAAC0.110.1181.8281.820.070.07
NiagaraMAAC0.110.1130.3030.30-0.04-0.04
QuinnipiacMAAC0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Seton HallBE0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
St. BonaventureA100.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
Appalachian St.SB0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
George MasonA100.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
UMBCAE0.100.1057.1457.140.010.01
VillanovaBE0.100.1091.1891.180.080.08
ClemsonACC0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.090.0935.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.090.0941.3841.38-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.090.0955.8855.880.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.0940.7440.74-0.02-0.02
UC DavisBW0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
UTEPCUSA0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0834.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Green BayHorz0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0829.4129.41-0.03-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
LafayettePat0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
DavidsonA100.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
DePaulBE0.080.0828.1228.12-0.03-0.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.080.0819.3519.35-0.05-0.05
Michigan St.B100.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0828.1228.12-0.03-0.03
Notre DameACC0.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
Ball St.MAC0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
HawaiiBW0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UC IrvineBW0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.060.0622.2222.22-0.03-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0618.5218.52-0.04-0.04
AkronMAC0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
StetsonASun0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0685.2985.290.040.04
MemphisAmer0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
TempleAmer0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
TulaneAmer0.060.0619.3519.35-0.03-0.03
TulsaAmer0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
DetroitHorz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
HartfordAE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
HarvardIvy0.050.0561.5461.540.010.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
PennIvy0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
RutgersB100.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Wright St.Horz0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
YaleIvy0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
ButlerBE0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
CreightonBE0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
ProvidenceBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
RichmondA100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
KansasB120.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
Boise St.MWC0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
LSUSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
NavyPat0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
SyracuseACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
Miami FLACC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
CaliforniaP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0376.6776.670.020.02
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
IdahoBSky0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
North FloridaASun0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0378.5778.570.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
WashingtonP120.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
HoustonAmer0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
SMUAmer0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
TroySB0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
VMISC0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
FordhamA100.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
OregonP120.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0310.0010.00-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
UNLVMWC0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01