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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Elon

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:162.0
Current RPI:162
Expected SOS:221
Current SOS:221
Current Record:16-13
Expected Record:16-13
Current Conf Record:11-6
Expected Conf Record:11-6
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-4
Current OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:118
Expected OOC SOS:29



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-13162.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Elon.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Marist (250.0)MAACA48-75W100%0.0
11-15Charlotte (151.0)CUSAA83-69L0%0.0
11-18Drexel (132.0)CAAN64-71L0%0.0
11-19Canisius (96.0)MAACN86-85L0%0.0
11-26Georgia St. (76.0)SBH90-85W100%0.0
12-1Columbia (130.0)IvyH68-65W100%0.0
12-3VMI (211.0)BSthH87-70W100%0.0
12-13Colorado (34.0)P12A80-63L0%0.0
12-17Georgetown (69.0)BEA85-76L0%0.0
12-22Florida Atlantic (270.0)CUSAA62-67W100%0.0
12-31Duke (9.0)ACCN48-86L0%0.0
1-4Western Carolina (221.0)SCA74-62L0%0.0
1-6Appalachian St. (335.0)SCH75-66W100%0.0
1-11The Citadel (345.0)SCH74-65W100%0.0
1-16Davidson (126.0)SCA85-87W100%0.0
1-18Massachusetts (23.0)A10H74-84L0%0.0
1-23Chattanooga (243.0)SCA84-63L0%0.0
1-25Samford (313.0)SCA62-59L0%0.0
1-30Western Carolina (221.0)SCH74-60W100%0.0
2-1Appalachian St. (335.0)SCA76-83W100%0.0
2-6UNC Greensboro (301.0)SCH72-66W100%0.0
2-8Georgia Southern (303.0)SCH60-59W100%0.0
2-15Samford (313.0)SCH86-69W100%0.0
2-19UNC Greensboro (301.0)SCA68-81W100%0.0
2-22Georgia Southern (303.0)SCA61-66W100%0.0
2-24Furman (339.0)SCA49-78W100%0.0
2-27Wofford (153.0)SCH59-63L0%0.0
3-1Davidson (126.0)SCH69-86L0%0.0
3-8Western Carolina (221.0)SCN64-66L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Elon's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Elon's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Elon.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ElonSC26.2926.2956.3056.303.313.31
Western CarolinaSC5.925.9250.0050.000.000.00
DavidsonSC4.324.3262.0762.071.041.04
SamfordSC4.254.2532.1432.14-1.52-1.52
Appalachian St.SC4.234.2320.8320.83-2.47-2.47
Georgia SouthernSC4.224.2241.3841.38-0.73-0.73
UNC GreensboroSC4.214.2140.7440.74-0.78-0.78
The CitadelSC2.642.6414.2914.29-1.88-1.88
WoffordSC2.622.6257.1457.140.370.37
ChattanoogaSC2.582.5850.0050.000.000.00
FurmanSC2.502.5026.9226.92-1.16-1.16
CharlotteCUSA1.871.8753.3353.330.120.12
DukeACC1.811.8175.7675.760.930.93
CanisiusMAAC1.811.8164.5264.520.520.52
Georgia St.SB1.811.8176.6776.670.960.96
DrexelCAA1.781.7851.7251.720.060.06
MaristMAAC1.781.7840.0040.00-0.36-0.36
Florida AtlanticCUSA1.781.7827.5927.59-0.80-0.80
VMIBSth1.751.7557.6957.690.270.27
ColoradoP121.721.7266.6766.670.570.57
ColumbiaIvy1.721.7262.0762.070.420.42
GeorgetownBE1.721.7253.3353.330.110.11
MassachusettsA101.721.7274.1974.190.830.83
PresbyterianBSth0.330.3313.3313.33-0.24-0.24
GeorgiaSEC0.290.2959.3859.380.050.05
NiagaraMAAC0.280.2821.2121.21-0.16-0.16
CampbellBSth0.240.2432.1432.14-0.09-0.09
Virginia TechACC0.230.2329.0329.03-0.10-0.10
College of CharlestonCAA0.230.2341.9441.94-0.04-0.04
High PointBSth0.210.2150.0050.000.000.00
East CarolinaCUSA0.200.2044.8344.83-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.200.2062.5062.500.050.05
Gardner WebbBSth0.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
LibertyBSth0.180.1827.5927.59-0.08-0.08
North Carolina St.ACC0.180.1861.7661.760.040.04
Wake ForestACC0.170.1751.5251.520.010.01
UABCUSA0.170.1755.1755.170.020.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.170.1748.2848.28-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.170.1768.7568.750.060.06
North CarolinaACC0.170.1771.8871.880.070.07
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.150.1560.0060.000.030.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.140.1478.7978.790.080.08
StetsonASun0.140.1422.5822.58-0.08-0.08
Wright St.Horz0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.140.1434.3834.38-0.04-0.04
FIUCUSA0.140.1446.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.140.1448.4848.48-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.140.1478.1278.120.080.08
OregonP120.140.1471.8871.880.060.06
SienaMAAC0.140.1446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.130.1376.4776.470.070.07
ArizonaP120.130.1388.2488.240.100.10
WinthropBSth0.130.1356.6756.670.020.02
RadfordBSth0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
James MadisonCAA0.120.1235.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
RutgersAmer0.120.1234.3834.38-0.04-0.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.110.1134.6234.62-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.110.1129.0329.03-0.05-0.05
Southern MissCUSA0.110.1180.6580.650.070.07
UT ArlingtonSB0.110.1143.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckySB0.110.1161.2961.290.030.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.110.1163.3363.330.030.03
DePaulBE0.110.1136.3636.36-0.03-0.03
HarvardIvy0.110.1186.2186.210.080.08
USC UpstateASun0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.110.1172.7372.730.050.05
ProvidenceBE0.110.1167.6567.650.040.04
FairfieldMAAC0.110.1121.8821.88-0.06-0.06
MonmouthMAAC0.110.1134.3834.38-0.03-0.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
RiderMAAC0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
VirginiaACC0.110.1182.3582.350.070.07
DuquesneA100.090.0941.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
TowsonCAA0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0935.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0913.7913.79-0.06-0.06
East Tennessee St.ASun0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.090.0928.5728.57-0.04-0.04
Stony BrookAE0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
VCUA100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
UTSACUSA0.080.0822.2222.22-0.05-0.05
St. John'sBE0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
CaliforniaP120.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
New MexicoMWC0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
AlabamaSEC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
MarylandACC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Miami FLACC0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
USCP120.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0781.8281.820.040.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0783.8783.870.040.04
LongwoodBSth0.060.0614.2914.29-0.05-0.05
San DiegoWCC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
BrownIvy0.060.0651.8551.850.000.00
CornellIvy0.060.063.703.70-0.05-0.05
DartmouthIvy0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
HofstraCAA0.060.0630.3030.30-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.060.0670.3770.370.020.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0693.1093.100.050.05
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
YaleIvy0.060.0651.8551.850.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Saint LouisA100.060.0680.6580.650.030.03
BucknellPat0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
ColgatePat0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
RiceCUSA0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
TulaneCUSA0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
TulsaCUSA0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
UTEPCUSA0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.060.0664.2964.290.020.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
Kansas St.B120.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Oral RobertsSlnd0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Texas St.SB0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
TroySB0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
VillanovaBE0.060.0687.5087.500.040.04
West VirginiaB120.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.060.06100.00100.000.060.06
XavierBE0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
George MasonA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
MichiganB100.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Notre DameACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
SyracuseACC0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
UtahP120.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
WashingtonP120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Washington St.P120.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
UC DavisBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
NavyPat0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
AmericanPat0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
IdahoWAC0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
UCFAmer0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
DaytonA100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
La SalleA100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
LSUSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
RichmondA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
South DakotaSum0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
PittsburghACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
StanfordP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
VermontAE0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
WyomingMWC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00