Elon

Conference:	CAA
Expected RPI:	205.0
Current RPI:	205
Expected SOS:	145
Current SOS:	145
Current Record:	12-18
Expected Record:	12-18
Current Conf Record:	6-13
Expected Conf Record:	6-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	6-8
Current OOC Record:	6-5
Expected OOC Record:	6-5
Expected OOC RPI:	71
Expected OOC SOS:	95

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
12-18	205.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Elon.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Duke (7.0)	ACC	A	97-68	L	0%
11-14	Furman (97.0)	SC	A	76-67	L	0%
11-17	FIU (295.0)	CUSA	N	95-87	W	100%
11-19	Milwaukee (231.0)	Horz	A	72-71	L	0%
11-22	Radford (128.0)	BSth	H	77-74	W	100%
11-30	South Florida (278.0)	Amer	H	79-78	W	100%
12-2	Saint Peter's (251.0)	MAAC	H	71-65	W	100%
12-7	UNC Greensboro (65.0)	SC	A	75-44	L	0%
12-17	Boston University (212.0)	Pat	A	69-77	W	100%
12-19	Canisius (124.0)	MAAC	A	67-51	L	0%
12-22	Indiana St. (184.0)	MVC	A	68-73	W	100%
12-30	Drexel (242.0)	CAA	H	90-75	W	100%
1-2	Towson (153.0)	CAA	H	75-72	W	100%
1-5	Northeastern (55.0)	CAA	A	72-60	L	0%
1-7	Hofstra (121.0)	CAA	A	76-89	W	100%
1-11	UNC Wilmington (245.0)	CAA	H	78-80	L	0%
1-13	College of Charleston (57.0)	CAA	H	63-58	W	100%
1-18	James Madison (272.0)	CAA	A	85-74	L	0%
1-20	William & Mary (94.0)	CAA	H	73-80	L	0%
1-25	Drexel (242.0)	CAA	A	83-79	L	0%
1-27	Towson (153.0)	CAA	A	76-83	W	100%
2-1	William & Mary (94.0)	CAA	A	99-92	L	0%
2-3	Delaware (233.0)	CAA	H	89-76	W	100%
2-8	Hofstra (121.0)	CAA	H	48-67	L	0%
2-15	UNC Wilmington (245.0)	CAA	A	87-63	L	0%
2-17	Delaware (233.0)	CAA	A	72-57	L	0%
2-22	College of Charleston (57.0)	CAA	A	79-58	L	0%
2-24	Northeastern (55.0)	CAA	H	59-81	L	0%
2-26	James Madison (272.0)	CAA	H	84-90	L	0%
3-3	Delaware (233.0)	CAA	N	86-79	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Elon's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Elon's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Elon.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Elon	CAA	26.41	26.41	41.54	41.54	-4.47	-4.47
Delaware	CAA	5.95	5.95	35.71	35.71	-1.70	-1.70
Northeastern	CAA	4.51	4.51	66.67	66.67	1.50	1.50
College of Charleston	CAA	4.42	4.42	79.31	79.31	2.59	2.59
UNC Wilmington	CAA	4.42	4.42	25.00	25.00	-2.21	-2.21
Drexel	CAA	4.37	4.37	36.67	36.67	-1.17	-1.17
James Madison	CAA	4.37	4.37	24.14	24.14	-2.26	-2.26
William & Mary	CAA	4.36	4.36	55.56	55.56	0.48	0.48
Towson	CAA	4.31	4.31	57.14	57.14	0.62	0.62
Hofstra	CAA	4.31	4.31	60.71	60.71	0.92	0.92
UNC Greensboro	SC	1.86	1.86	76.67	76.67	0.99	0.99
Furman	SC	1.85	1.85	66.67	66.67	0.62	0.62
FIU	CUSA	1.77	1.77	39.29	39.29	-0.38	-0.38
Radford	BSth	1.72	1.72	64.52	64.52	0.50	0.50
Boston University	Pat	1.72	1.72	48.28	48.28	-0.06	-0.06
Canisius	MAAC	1.72	1.72	64.52	64.52	0.50	0.50
Saint Peter's	MAAC	1.72	1.72	45.16	45.16	-0.17	-0.17
Milwaukee	Horz	1.70	1.70	46.67	46.67	-0.11	-0.11
South Florida	Amer	1.70	1.70	32.26	32.26	-0.60	-0.60
Duke	ACC	1.69	1.69	78.12	78.12	0.95	0.95
Indiana St.	MVC	1.67	1.67	39.29	39.29	-0.36	-0.36
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.25	0.25	78.12	78.12	0.14	0.14
Rider	MAAC	0.24	0.24	70.97	70.97	0.10	0.10
Siena	MAAC	0.21	0.21	25.00	25.00	-0.11	-0.11
Charlotte	CUSA	0.19	0.19	17.86	17.86	-0.12	-0.12
The Citadel	SC	0.19	0.19	27.59	27.59	-0.08	-0.08
Western Carolina	SC	0.19	0.19	36.67	36.67	-0.05	-0.05
Monmouth	MAAC	0.19	0.19	35.48	35.48	-0.05	-0.05
Longwood	BSth	0.19	0.19	13.33	13.33	-0.14	-0.14
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.18	0.18	36.36	36.36	-0.05	-0.05
High Point	BSth	0.16	0.16	40.74	40.74	-0.03	-0.03
Loyola MD	Pat	0.16	0.16	26.67	26.67	-0.08	-0.08
Manhattan	MAAC	0.16	0.16	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.16	0.16	71.88	71.88	0.07	0.07
Mercer	SC	0.16	0.16	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.14	0.14	84.38	84.38	0.10	0.10
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.14	0.14	32.14	32.14	-0.05	-0.05
Bradley	MVC	0.14	0.14	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Navy	Pat	0.14	0.14	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Ohio St.	B10	0.14	0.14	75.00	75.00	0.07	0.07
Bucknell	Pat	0.14	0.14	73.53	73.53	0.06	0.06
Richmond	A10	0.13	0.13	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Wofford	SC	0.13	0.13	60.00	60.00	0.03	0.03
East Carolina	Amer	0.13	0.13	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
La Salle	A10	0.13	0.13	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
Lafayette	Pat	0.13	0.13	30.00	30.00	-0.05	-0.05
VMI	SC	0.13	0.13	25.00	25.00	-0.07	-0.07
Cornell	Ivy	0.13	0.13	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Notre Dame	ACC	0.13	0.13	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.13	0.13	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Valparaiso	MVC	0.11	0.11	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
George Mason	A10	0.11	0.11	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Army	Pat	0.11	0.11	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Drake	MVC	0.11	0.11	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
UCF	Amer	0.11	0.11	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Oakland	Horz	0.11	0.11	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Evansville	MVC	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Campbell	BSth	0.11	0.11	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.11	0.11	25.81	25.81	-0.05	-0.05
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.11	0.11	68.97	68.97	0.04	0.04
Samford	SC	0.11	0.11	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
Buffalo	MAC	0.11	0.11	75.76	75.76	0.05	0.05
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.11	0.11	25.00	25.00	-0.05	-0.05
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.11	0.11	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Liberty	BSth	0.11	0.11	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.11	0.11	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Houston	Amer	0.10	0.10	78.79	78.79	0.06	0.06
Marist	MAAC	0.10	0.10	19.35	19.35	-0.06	-0.06
Niagara	MAAC	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.09	0.09	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.09	0.09	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
North Texas	CUSA	0.09	0.09	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Lehigh	Pat	0.08	0.08	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Green Bay	Horz	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
UTSA	CUSA	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.08	0.08	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.08	0.08	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	6.67	6.67	-0.07	-0.07
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Wright St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
Yale	Ivy	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Indiana	B10	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.08	0.08	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Appalachian St.	SB	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Wichita St.	Amer	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Florida	SEC	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Presbyterian	BSth	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
Memphis	Amer	0.08	0.08	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Temple	Amer	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.08	0.08	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.08	0.08	71.43	71.43	0.03	0.03
Hampton	MEAC	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Missouri St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.06	0.06	17.24	17.24	-0.04	-0.04
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
TCU	B12	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
American	Pat	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Colgate	Pat	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Davidson	A10	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Dayton	A10	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SB	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
LSU	SEC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Penn	Ivy	0.06	0.06	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Stony Brook	AE	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
UMBC	AE	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Villanova	BE	0.06	0.06	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Air Force	MWC	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
South Alabama	SB	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
New Hampshire	AE	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Albany	AE	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Connecticut	Amer	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Cal Poly	BW	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	32.35	32.35	-0.02	-0.02
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
IUPUI	Horz	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Weber St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	93.94	93.94	0.05	0.05
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
NJIT	ASun	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
SMU	Amer	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Tulane	Amer	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Tulsa	Amer	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Utah St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Vermont	AE	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Ball St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Hartford	AE	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.03	0.03	76.67	76.67	0.02	0.02
North Florida	ASun	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
UTEP	CUSA	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Maine	AE	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
UMass Lowell	AE	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Butler	BE	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Montana St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Western Illinois	Sum	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	Amer	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.03	0.03	23.08	23.08	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Nevada	MWC	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Pacific	WCC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Texas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
UC Davis	BW	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Louisville	ACC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	87.88	87.88	0.02	0.02
Portland St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.03	0.03	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Syracuse	ACC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Texas	B12	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Utah Valley	WAC	0.03	0.03	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01