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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Elon

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:205.0
Current RPI:205
Expected SOS:145
Current SOS:145
Current Record:12-18
Expected Record:12-18
Current Conf Record:6-13
Expected Conf Record:6-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-8
Current OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:71
Expected OOC SOS:95



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-18205.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Elon.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Duke (7.0)ACCA97-68L0%0.0
11-14Furman (97.0)SCA76-67L0%0.0
11-17FIU (295.0)CUSAN95-87W100%0.0
11-19Milwaukee (231.0)HorzA72-71L0%0.0
11-22Radford (128.0)BSthH77-74W100%0.0
11-30South Florida (278.0)AmerH79-78W100%0.0
12-2Saint Peter's (251.0)MAACH71-65W100%0.0
12-7UNC Greensboro (65.0)SCA75-44L0%0.0
12-17Boston University (212.0)PatA69-77W100%0.0
12-19Canisius (124.0)MAACA67-51L0%0.0
12-22Indiana St. (184.0)MVCA68-73W100%0.0
12-30Drexel (242.0)CAAH90-75W100%0.0
1-2Towson (153.0)CAAH75-72W100%0.0
1-5Northeastern (55.0)CAAA72-60L0%0.0
1-7Hofstra (121.0)CAAA76-89W100%0.0
1-11UNC Wilmington (245.0)CAAH78-80L0%0.0
1-13College of Charleston (57.0)CAAH63-58W100%0.0
1-18James Madison (272.0)CAAA85-74L0%0.0
1-20William & Mary (94.0)CAAH73-80L0%0.0
1-25Drexel (242.0)CAAA83-79L0%0.0
1-27Towson (153.0)CAAA76-83W100%0.0
2-1William & Mary (94.0)CAAA99-92L0%0.0
2-3Delaware (233.0)CAAH89-76W100%0.0
2-8Hofstra (121.0)CAAH48-67L0%0.0
2-15UNC Wilmington (245.0)CAAA87-63L0%0.0
2-17Delaware (233.0)CAAA72-57L0%0.0
2-22College of Charleston (57.0)CAAA79-58L0%0.0
2-24Northeastern (55.0)CAAH59-81L0%0.0
2-26James Madison (272.0)CAAH84-90L0%0.0
3-3Delaware (233.0)CAAN86-79L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Elon's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Elon's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Elon.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ElonCAA26.4126.4141.5441.54-4.47-4.47
DelawareCAA5.955.9535.7135.71-1.70-1.70
NortheasternCAA4.514.5166.6766.671.501.50
College of CharlestonCAA4.424.4279.3179.312.592.59
UNC WilmingtonCAA4.424.4225.0025.00-2.21-2.21
DrexelCAA4.374.3736.6736.67-1.17-1.17
James MadisonCAA4.374.3724.1424.14-2.26-2.26
William & MaryCAA4.364.3655.5655.560.480.48
TowsonCAA4.314.3157.1457.140.620.62
HofstraCAA4.314.3160.7160.710.920.92
UNC GreensboroSC1.861.8676.6776.670.990.99
FurmanSC1.851.8566.6766.670.620.62
FIUCUSA1.771.7739.2939.29-0.38-0.38
RadfordBSth1.721.7264.5264.520.500.50
Boston UniversityPat1.721.7248.2848.28-0.06-0.06
CanisiusMAAC1.721.7264.5264.520.500.50
Saint Peter'sMAAC1.721.7245.1645.16-0.17-0.17
MilwaukeeHorz1.701.7046.6746.67-0.11-0.11
South FloridaAmer1.701.7032.2632.26-0.60-0.60
DukeACC1.691.6978.1278.120.950.95
Indiana St.MVC1.671.6739.2939.29-0.36-0.36
Old DominionCUSA0.250.2578.1278.120.140.14
RiderMAAC0.240.2470.9770.970.100.10
SienaMAAC0.210.2125.0025.00-0.11-0.11
CharlotteCUSA0.190.1917.8617.86-0.12-0.12
The CitadelSC0.190.1927.5927.59-0.08-0.08
Western CarolinaSC0.190.1936.6736.67-0.05-0.05
MonmouthMAAC0.190.1935.4835.48-0.05-0.05
LongwoodBSth0.190.1913.3313.33-0.14-0.14
QuinnipiacMAAC0.180.1836.3636.36-0.05-0.05
High PointBSth0.160.1640.7440.74-0.03-0.03
Loyola MDPat0.160.1626.6726.67-0.08-0.08
ManhattanMAAC0.160.1645.1645.16-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.160.1671.8871.880.070.07
MercerSC0.160.1653.3353.330.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.140.1484.3884.380.100.10
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.140.1432.1432.14-0.05-0.05
BradleyMVC0.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
NavyPat0.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
Ohio St.B100.140.1475.0075.000.070.07
BucknellPat0.140.1473.5373.530.060.06
RichmondA100.130.1337.5037.50-0.03-0.03
WoffordSC0.130.1360.0060.000.030.03
East CarolinaAmer0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
La SalleA100.130.1340.6240.62-0.03-0.03
LafayettePat0.130.1330.0030.00-0.05-0.05
VMISC0.130.1325.0025.00-0.07-0.07
CornellIvy0.130.1340.7440.74-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
IonaMAAC0.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
ValparaisoMVC0.110.1143.3343.33-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
OaklandHorz0.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
EvansvilleMVC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
CampbellBSth0.110.1146.4346.43-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.110.1125.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Northern KentuckyHorz0.110.1168.9768.970.040.04
SamfordSC0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
BuffaloMAC0.110.1175.7675.760.050.05
PittsburghACC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.05-0.05
UNC AshevilleBSth0.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
LibertyBSth0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
WinthropBSth0.110.1157.1457.140.020.02
HoustonAmer0.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
MaristMAAC0.100.1019.3519.35-0.06-0.06
NiagaraMAAC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.090.0969.7069.700.030.03
North TexasCUSA0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.080.0878.1278.120.050.05
LehighPat0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Green BayHorz0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
UTSACUSA0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
HowardMEAC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.086.676.67-0.07-0.07
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Wright St.Horz0.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
YaleIvy0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
IndianaB100.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
HarvardIvy0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.Amer0.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
FloridaSEC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
PresbyterianBSth0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
MemphisAmer0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
TempleAmer0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.080.0871.4371.430.030.03
HamptonMEAC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.060.0617.2417.24-0.04-0.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
AmericanPat0.060.0620.0020.00-0.03-0.03
ColgatePat0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
DavidsonA100.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
DaytonA100.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
LSUSEC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Stony BrookAE0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
VillanovaBE0.060.0688.2488.240.040.04
Air ForceMWC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
New HampshireAE0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
AlbanyAE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0532.3532.35-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
IUPUIHorz0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
VirginiaACC0.050.0593.9493.940.050.05
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
NJITASun0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
StanfordP120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
TulaneAmer0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
VermontAE0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Ball St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
HartfordAE0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0376.6776.670.020.02
North FloridaASun0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UABCUSA0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
ButlerBE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
WisconsinB100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
DartmouthIvy0.030.0323.0823.08-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
NevadaMWC0.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Seton HallBE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
UC DavisBW0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Portland St.BSky0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
South DakotaSum0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
St. John'sBE0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
TexasB120.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01