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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Elon

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:259.0
Current RPI:259
Expected SOS:284
Current SOS:284
Current Record:13-18
Expected Record:13-18
Current Conf Record:7-13
Expected Conf Record:7-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-7
Current OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:222
Expected OOC SOS:335



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-18259.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Elon.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Florida Atlantic (303.0)CUSAH64-58W100%0.0
11-16Charlotte (211.0)CUSAH60-73L0%0.0
11-22Northwestern (125.0)B10A68-67L0%0.0
11-25Morgan St. (337.0)MEACN74-73W100%0.0
11-26North Florida (162.0)ASunN72-65L0%0.0
11-30Miami OH (229.0)MACA68-70W100%0.0
12-11Missouri (218.0)SECA78-73L0%0.0
12-15Duke (6.0)ACCA75-62L0%0.0
12-20UNC Greensboro (309.0)SCA64-71W100%0.0
12-22Kennesaw St. (319.0)ASunA65-67W100%0.0
12-28Marist (317.0)MAACH69-64W100%0.0
1-3Drexel (243.0)CAAA67-77W100%0.0
1-5Towson (281.0)CAAA57-53L0%0.0
1-8William & Mary (93.0)CAAH85-79W100%0.0
1-10Hofstra (174.0)CAAH61-79L0%0.0
1-14College of Charleston (298.0)CAAH50-66L0%0.0
1-17James Madison (148.0)CAAA75-72L0%0.0
1-22Towson (281.0)CAAH51-53L0%0.0
1-24Delaware (253.0)CAAH94-82W100%0.0
1-28UNC Wilmington (145.0)CAAA82-65L0%0.0
1-31Northeastern (86.0)CAAA80-61L0%0.0
2-5Drexel (243.0)CAAH63-67L0%0.0
2-7Hofstra (174.0)CAAA80-69L0%0.0
2-11William & Mary (93.0)CAAA77-58L0%0.0
2-14James Madison (148.0)CAAH75-86L0%0.0
2-18College of Charleston (298.0)CAAA77-63L0%0.0
2-21Delaware (253.0)CAAA75-83W100%0.0
2-26Northeastern (86.0)CAAH72-65W100%0.0
2-28UNC Wilmington (145.0)CAAH74-55W100%0.0
3-6Towson (281.0)CAAN69-74W100%0.0
3-7William & Mary (93.0)CAAN72-59L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Elon's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Elon's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Elon.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ElonCAA26.4826.4843.4543.45-3.47-3.47
William & MaryCAA5.815.8159.2659.261.081.08
TowsonCAA5.745.7432.1432.14-2.05-2.05
NortheasternCAA4.354.3568.7568.751.631.63
College of CharlestonCAA4.304.3022.5822.58-2.36-2.36
HofstraCAA4.294.2958.0658.060.690.69
UNC WilmingtonCAA4.284.2857.1457.140.610.61
James MadisonCAA4.214.2156.6756.670.560.56
DelawareCAA4.204.2035.7135.71-1.20-1.20
DrexelCAA4.204.2037.0437.04-1.09-1.09
North FloridaASun1.691.6963.3363.330.450.45
CharlotteCUSA1.691.6941.9441.94-0.27-0.27
Morgan St.MEAC1.691.6923.3323.33-0.90-0.90
UNC GreensboroSC1.671.6727.5927.59-0.75-0.75
Kennesaw St.ASun1.661.6627.5927.59-0.75-0.75
NorthwesternB101.661.6645.1645.16-0.16-0.16
Florida AtlanticCUSA1.641.6426.9226.92-0.76-0.76
Miami OHMAC1.641.6440.0040.00-0.33-0.33
DukeACC1.611.6187.5087.501.211.21
MaristMAAC1.611.6122.5822.58-0.88-0.88
MissouriSEC1.611.6123.3323.33-0.86-0.86
Old DominionCUSA0.210.2177.4277.420.120.12
WoffordSC0.190.1981.2581.250.120.12
LibertyBSth0.190.1914.2914.29-0.13-0.13
JacksonvilleASun0.180.1824.1424.14-0.10-0.10
La SalleA100.180.1851.5251.520.010.01
Miami FLACC0.180.1863.6463.640.050.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.180.1823.3323.33-0.10-0.10
RichmondA100.180.1859.3859.380.030.03
StetsonASun0.160.1621.4321.43-0.09-0.09
East CarolinaAmer0.160.1638.7138.71-0.04-0.04
RiceCUSA0.160.1634.4834.48-0.05-0.05
USC UpstateASun0.160.1663.3363.330.040.04
High PointBSth0.160.1667.8667.860.060.06
LipscombASun0.160.1639.2939.29-0.03-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.160.1668.5768.570.060.06
TempleAmer0.160.1669.7069.700.060.06
CampbellBSth0.150.1524.1424.14-0.08-0.08
Norfolk St.MEAC0.150.1558.0658.060.020.02
ManhattanMAAC0.150.1559.3859.380.030.03
VMISC0.130.1332.1432.14-0.05-0.05
Penn St.B100.130.1352.9452.940.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.130.1325.0025.00-0.07-0.07
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.130.1365.5265.520.040.04
Northern KentuckyASun0.130.1339.2939.29-0.03-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.130.1330.0030.00-0.05-0.05
MonmouthMAAC0.130.1354.5554.550.010.01
DavidsonA100.130.1376.6776.670.070.07
FurmanSC0.130.1329.0329.03-0.05-0.05
Central ConnecticutNEC0.130.1316.1316.13-0.09-0.09
NavyPat0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
FairfieldMAAC0.120.1222.5822.58-0.07-0.07
FIUCUSA0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.110.1125.9325.93-0.05-0.05
MarshallCUSA0.110.1130.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.110.1152.9452.940.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
SamfordSC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
OhioMAC0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
UMBCAE0.100.1013.3313.33-0.08-0.08
ArmyPat0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.100.1028.1228.12-0.05-0.05
GeorgetownBE0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
South CarolinaSEC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
The CitadelSC0.100.1029.6329.63-0.04-0.04
Ohio St.B100.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
Cal PolyBW0.100.1040.7440.74-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
Western MichiganMAC0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
UABCUSA0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
MercerSC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0823.0823.08-0.04-0.04
North TexasCUSA0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
LouisvilleACC0.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
StanfordP120.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.080.0874.0774.070.040.04
IndianaB100.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0890.9190.910.060.06
PurdueB100.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.04-0.04
IowaB100.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
RiderMAAC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.080.0883.3383.330.050.05
SyracuseACC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
LSUSEC0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.070.0767.6567.650.030.03
VirginiaACC0.070.0790.6290.620.060.06
WisconsinB100.070.0791.1891.180.060.06
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0768.9768.970.030.03
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0758.8258.820.010.01
Notre DameACC0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
ColoradoP120.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
USCP120.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
UTEPCUSA0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
UTSACUSA0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0594.1294.120.050.05
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
ButlerBE0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
AkronMAC0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
AuburnSEC0.050.0541.1841.18-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.056.906.90-0.04-0.04
KentuckySEC0.050.05100.00100.000.050.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0571.4371.430.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
ToledoMAC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
ColgatePat0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0547.0647.06-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0544.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
George MasonA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
WagnerNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
UCFAmer0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
IPFWSum0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0375.8675.860.010.01
OklahomaB120.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
BrownIvy0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0318.7518.75-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
PennIvy0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
PittsburghACC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
St. John'sBE0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01