Elon

Conference:	SC
Expected RPI:	174.0
Current RPI:	174
Expected SOS:	311
Current SOS:	311
Current Record:	19-11
Expected Record:	19-11
Current Conf Record:	14-6
Expected Conf Record:	14-6
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	19-4
Current OOC Record:	5-5
Expected OOC Record:	5-5
Expected OOC RPI:	137
Expected OOC SOS:	150

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
19-11	174.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Elon.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Butler (22.0)	A10	A	74-59	L	0%
11-17	Colgate (256.0)	Pat	H	81-72	W	100%
11-18	Florida Atlantic (218.0)	SB	H	62-59	W	100%
11-21	South Carolina (222.0)	SEC	A	53-65	W	100%
11-24	Virginia Military Inst (302.0)	BSth	A	90-81	L	0%
11-28	Georgia Southern (266.0)	SC	A	50-55	W	100%
12-1	College of Charleston (133.0)	SC	H	54-56	L	0%
12-4	Dartmouth (294.0)	Ivy	H	71-49	W	100%
12-15	Massachusetts (57.0)	A10	A	78-73	L	0%
12-20	Duke (1.0)	ACC	A	76-54	L	0%
12-22	Columbia (273.0)	Ivy	A	69-70	W	100%
1-5	Princeton (124.0)	Ivy	H	64-74	L	0%
1-12	Appalachian St. (265.0)	SC	A	80-70	L	0%
1-14	Western Carolina (243.0)	SC	A	67-80	W	100%
1-17	Furman (343.0)	SC	H	73-59	W	100%
1-19	Wofford (250.0)	SC	H	68-61	W	100%
1-24	Chattanooga (292.0)	SC	H	85-61	W	100%
1-26	The Citadel (330.0)	SC	A	66-70	W	100%
1-31	NC Greensboro (327.0)	SC	A	66-72	W	100%
2-2	Samford (291.0)	SC	H	77-66	W	100%
2-7	Wofford (250.0)	SC	A	60-50	L	0%
2-9	Furman (343.0)	SC	A	60-64	W	100%
2-14	Appalachian St. (265.0)	SC	H	61-58	W	100%
2-16	Western Carolina (243.0)	SC	H	80-73	W	100%
2-21	Samford (291.0)	SC	A	62-63	W	100%
2-23	Chattanooga (292.0)	SC	A	72-68	L	0%
2-27	Davidson (61.0)	SC	H	63-69	L	0%
3-2	NC Greensboro (327.0)	SC	H	80-66	W	100%
3-9	NC Greensboro (327.0)	SC	N	68-61	W	100%
3-10	College of Charleston (133.0)	SC	N	60-68	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Elon's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Elon's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Elon.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Elon	SC	26.39	26.39	65.94	65.94	8.41	8.41
NC Greensboro	SC	5.85	5.85	26.92	26.92	-2.70	-2.70
Chattanooga	SC	4.25	4.25	35.71	35.71	-1.21	-1.21
Furman	SC	4.24	4.24	18.52	18.52	-2.67	-2.67
Appalachian St.	SC	4.24	4.24	44.44	44.44	-0.47	-0.47
Samford	SC	4.22	4.22	34.48	34.48	-1.31	-1.31
College of Charleston	SC	4.22	4.22	70.97	70.97	1.77	1.77
Western Carolina	SC	4.22	4.22	41.38	41.38	-0.73	-0.73
Wofford	SC	4.13	4.13	37.93	37.93	-1.00	-1.00
Davidson	SC	2.68	2.68	77.42	77.42	1.47	1.47
Georgia Southern	SC	2.60	2.60	40.00	40.00	-0.52	-0.52
The Citadel	SC	2.60	2.60	22.22	22.22	-1.44	-1.44
Columbia	Ivy	1.87	1.87	40.00	40.00	-0.37	-0.37
Dartmouth	Ivy	1.82	1.82	30.77	30.77	-0.70	-0.70
Princeton	Ivy	1.79	1.79	57.69	57.69	0.28	0.28
Colgate	Pat	1.73	1.73	35.48	35.48	-0.50	-0.50
South Carolina	SEC	1.72	1.72	45.16	45.16	-0.17	-0.17
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	1.70	1.70	37.04	37.04	-0.44	-0.44
Butler	A10	1.69	1.69	75.00	75.00	0.85	0.85
Duke	ACC	1.69	1.69	83.87	83.87	1.15	1.15
Massachusetts	A10	1.69	1.69	64.52	64.52	0.49	0.49
Florida Atlantic	SB	1.67	1.67	43.33	43.33	-0.22	-0.22
High Point	BSth	0.26	0.26	53.57	53.57	0.02	0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.25	0.25	40.62	40.62	-0.05	-0.05
Cornell	Ivy	0.24	0.24	40.00	40.00	-0.05	-0.05
Harvard	Ivy	0.21	0.21	66.67	66.67	0.07	0.07
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.21	0.21	29.03	29.03	-0.09	-0.09
Presbyterian	BSth	0.20	0.20	17.24	17.24	-0.13	-0.13
Wake Forest	ACC	0.20	0.20	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Brown	Ivy	0.19	0.19	44.44	44.44	-0.02	-0.02
Yale	Ivy	0.19	0.19	41.38	41.38	-0.03	-0.03
East Carolina	CUSA	0.17	0.17	53.85	53.85	0.01	0.01
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.17	0.17	31.03	31.03	-0.06	-0.06
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.16	0.16	70.59	70.59	0.07	0.07
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.16	0.16	60.00	60.00	0.03	0.03
Bucknell	Pat	0.15	0.15	84.38	84.38	0.10	0.10
Army	Pat	0.14	0.14	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.14	0.14	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.14	0.14	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Marist	MAAC	0.14	0.14	32.26	32.26	-0.05	-0.05
Jacksonville	ASun	0.14	0.14	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Troy	SB	0.14	0.14	36.36	36.36	-0.04	-0.04
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.13	0.13	42.31	42.31	-0.02	-0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.13	0.13	28.12	28.12	-0.06	-0.06
Boston College	ACC	0.13	0.13	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Richmond	A10	0.13	0.13	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Louisville	BE	0.13	0.13	85.29	85.29	0.09	0.09
Xavier	A10	0.13	0.13	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.12	0.12	19.35	19.35	-0.07	-0.07
Rutgers	BE	0.12	0.12	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Campbell	BSth	0.12	0.12	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Holy Cross	Pat	0.11	0.11	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Liberty	BSth	0.11	0.11	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.11	0.11	52.94	52.94	0.01	0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.11	0.11	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
American	Pat	0.11	0.11	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Missouri	SEC	0.11	0.11	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.11	0.11	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
Duquesne	A10	0.11	0.11	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.11	0.11	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.11	0.11	20.69	20.69	-0.06	-0.06
Western Kentucky	SB	0.11	0.11	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
George Washington	A10	0.11	0.11	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Tennessee	SEC	0.11	0.11	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Illinois	B10	0.11	0.11	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Maryland	ACC	0.11	0.11	64.71	64.71	0.03	0.03
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.11	0.11	31.25	31.25	-0.04	-0.04
Charlotte	A10	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
North Carolina	ACC	0.10	0.10	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Dayton	A10	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Temple	A10	0.10	0.10	71.88	71.88	0.05	0.05
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.10	0.10	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.10	0.10	76.47	76.47	0.05	0.05
St. Louis	A10	0.10	0.10	81.82	81.82	0.06	0.06
Radford	BSth	0.09	0.09	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
James Madison	CAA	0.09	0.09	58.82	58.82	0.02	0.02
NC Asheville	BSth	0.08	0.08	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.08	0.08	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Lafayette	Pat	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.08	0.08	10.00	10.00	-0.07	-0.07
Fordham	A10	0.08	0.08	22.58	22.58	-0.05	-0.05
Vermont	AE	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.08	0.08	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Old Dominion	CAA	0.08	0.08	16.67	16.67	-0.05	-0.05
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.08	0.08	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Ohio	MAC	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Virginia	ACC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.08	0.08	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Lehigh	Pat	0.08	0.08	68.97	68.97	0.03	0.03
Miami FL	ACC	0.08	0.08	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Rhode Island	A10	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
La Salle	A10	0.08	0.08	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
St. John's	BE	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Manhattan	MAAC	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.06	0.06	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.06	0.06	74.29	74.29	0.03	0.03
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
West Virginia	B12	0.06	0.06	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas	B12	0.06	0.06	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.06	0.06	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Utah Valley	GWC	0.06	0.06	35.71	35.71	-0.02	-0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	28.12	28.12	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas St.	SB	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Florida International	SB	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.05	14.81	14.81	-0.04	-0.04
Memphis	CUSA	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.05	0.05	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
North Texas	SB	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Georgia St.	CAA	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Navy	Pat	0.05	0.05	23.33	23.33	-0.03	-0.03
Providence	BE	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Gonzaga	WCC	0.05	0.05	93.75	93.75	0.04	0.04
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.02	0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Long Island	NEC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Villanova	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Arizona St.	P12	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Maine	AE	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Hofstra	CAA	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
North Florida	ASun	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Valparaiso	Horz	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Albany	AE	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Binghamton	AE	0.03	0.03	6.90	6.90	-0.02	-0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Montana	BSky	0.03	0.03	79.31	79.31	0.02	0.02
New Mexico	MWC	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.03	0.03	48.00	48.00	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Santa Clara	WCC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Texas A&M	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
IUPUI	Sum	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
New Orleans	ind	0.03	0.03	18.18	18.18	-0.02	-0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00