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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Elon

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:136.0
Current RPI:83
Expected SOS:182
Current SOS:180
Current Record:5-1
Expected Record:17-12
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-3
Current OOC Record:5-1
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:111
Expected OOC SOS:208



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-428.00.01%
24-543.10.07%
23-656.00.31%
22-764.51.16%
21-875.53.16%
20-987.56.83%
19-10101.910.97%
18-11115.115.67%
17-12131.218.15%
16-13147.717.19%
15-14165.312.19%
14-15184.17.63%
13-16202.24.26%
12-17222.01.81%
11-18240.50.43%
10-19255.30.12%
9-20275.00.02%
7-22294.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Elon.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Charlotte (177.2)CUSAH95-100L0%0.0
11-17South Florida (269.8)AmerA61-74W100%0.0
11-23Illinois Chicago (223.1)HorzN80-91W100%0.0
11-25Northern Illinois (209.4)MACA80-85W100%0.0
11-26Cal Poly (281.6)BWN66-72W100%0.0
11-30FIU (267.5)CUSAH84-81W100%0.0
12-4Georgetown (104.0)BEA0-016%-11.8
12-6UNC Asheville (105.8)BSthH0-059%2.9
12-10Radford (250.4)BSthA0-070%6.3
12-18Saint Peter's (178.9)MAACA0-045%-1.4
12-21Duke (8.6)ACCN0-04%-21.7
12-31College of Charleston (141.6)CAAH0-059%2.6
1-2UNC Wilmington (50.6)CAAA0-019%-10.5
1-5William & Mary (121.0)CAAA0-035%-4.5
1-7Towson (160.8)CAAH0-059%2.8
1-12Hofstra (237.3)CAAH0-077%8.7
1-14James Madison (268.0)CAAA0-060%3.0
1-19Drexel (245.8)CAAH0-077%8.9
1-21William & Mary (121.0)CAAH0-056%1.7
1-26Northeastern (167.3)CAAA0-045%-1.6
1-28Hofstra (237.3)CAAA0-058%2.6
2-2James Madison (268.0)CAAH0-078%9.2
2-4College of Charleston (141.6)CAAA0-038%-3.5
2-9Delaware (225.1)CAAA0-054%1.3
2-11UNC Wilmington (50.6)CAAH0-036%-4.3
2-16Towson (160.8)CAAA0-039%-3.4
2-18Drexel (245.8)CAAA0-059%2.7
2-23Northeastern (167.3)CAAH0-065%4.6
2-25Delaware (225.1)CAAH0-073%7.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Elon's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Elon's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Elon.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ElonCAA29.0726.3879.4159.6717.105.10
James MadisonCAA0.694.420.0027.94-0.69-1.95
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.004.4283.3377.510.002.43
DelawareCAA0.004.4140.0040.98-0.00-0.80
William & MaryCAA0.004.4040.0055.52-0.000.49
College of CharlestonCAA0.004.3862.5056.860.000.60
DrexelCAA0.004.3842.8637.18-0.00-1.12
HofstraCAA0.004.3857.1441.130.00-0.78
NortheasternCAA0.004.3857.1448.470.00-0.13
TowsonCAA0.004.3850.0054.760.000.42
Northern IllinoisMAC9.721.8450.0046.970.00-0.11
RadfordBSth0.001.8433.3336.55-0.00-0.50
South FloridaAmer8.331.8180.0033.395.00-0.60
CharlotteCUSA8.331.8160.0049.281.67-0.03
DukeACC0.001.7987.5078.090.001.00
FIUCUSA8.331.7920.0034.89-5.00-0.54
Illinois ChicagoHorz9.621.7960.0052.091.920.07
UNC AshevilleBSth0.001.7950.0065.710.000.56
Cal PolyBW9.621.7840.0037.26-1.92-0.45
GeorgetownBE0.001.7250.0046.350.00-0.13
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.001.7260.0052.700.000.09
Old DominionCUSA0.000.2766.6765.810.000.09
High PointBSth0.000.2450.0051.260.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.690.2175.0047.510.35-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.1833.3327.13-0.00-0.08
LibertyBSth0.000.1840.0050.71-0.000.00
CampbellBSth0.000.1825.0033.54-0.00-0.06
LongwoodBSth0.000.1825.0024.66-0.00-0.09
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.690.1820.0034.39-0.42-0.06
Western MichiganMAC0.000.1816.6736.45-0.00-0.05
Wake ForestACC0.000.1771.4352.370.000.01
IonaMAAC0.000.1760.0070.140.000.07
Stony BrookAE0.000.1716.6733.82-0.00-0.06
UTSACUSA1.390.1528.5728.46-0.60-0.06
North TexasCUSA0.000.1540.0030.80-0.00-0.06
RiceCUSA0.000.1585.7169.010.000.06
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.1585.7173.010.000.07
USC UpstateASun0.690.1533.3338.20-0.23-0.03
MarylandB100.000.1485.7156.490.000.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.1433.3338.76-0.00-0.03
La SalleA100.000.1460.0051.780.000.01
MaristMAAC0.000.1442.8635.68-0.00-0.04
RiderMAAC0.690.1450.0047.990.00-0.01
SienaMAAC0.000.1428.5750.51-0.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.000.1450.0053.530.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.1366.6756.360.000.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.1225.0038.72-0.00-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.1220.0048.38-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.1250.0033.010.00-0.04
WinthropBSth0.000.1260.0070.500.000.05
Kent St.MAC0.000.1250.0051.820.000.00
ToledoMAC0.000.1242.8650.36-0.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.1250.0052.140.000.01
BradleyMVC0.000.1250.0029.280.00-0.05
OaklandHorz0.000.1283.3378.430.000.07
UCFAmer0.000.1283.3374.620.000.06
Appalachian St.SB0.690.1220.0036.00-0.42-0.03
Seton HallBE0.000.1271.4354.520.000.01
George MasonA100.000.1157.1442.940.00-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.000.1133.3338.19-0.00-0.03
MonmouthMAAC0.000.1171.4371.570.000.05
NiagaraMAAC0.000.1116.6727.03-0.00-0.05
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.1116.6734.31-0.00-0.04
St. BonaventureA100.000.1166.6770.740.000.05
UMBCAE0.000.1180.0055.340.000.01
VermontAE0.000.1162.5071.630.000.05
VillanovaBE0.000.11100.0083.120.000.07
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.600.0916.6743.29-0.40-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.0985.7175.950.000.05
Rhode IslandA100.000.0971.4370.330.000.04
MarshallCUSA0.000.0983.3359.600.000.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0942.8634.17-0.00-0.03
UABCUSA0.000.0957.1461.940.000.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.0925.0043.26-0.00-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.690.0942.8637.60-0.10-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0950.0056.260.000.01
DavidsonA100.690.0983.3368.880.460.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0928.5739.44-0.00-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0916.6718.96-0.00-0.05
North CarolinaACC0.000.0985.7180.010.000.05
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0920.0034.22-0.00-0.03
LafayettePat0.000.0933.3331.87-0.00-0.03
DePaulBE0.000.0980.0035.960.00-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0950.0027.250.00-0.04
ClemsonACC0.000.0966.6753.460.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.090.0018.22-0.00-0.05
MaineAE0.000.0916.6725.61-0.00-0.04
Michigan St.B100.000.0950.0061.590.000.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.060.0034.18-0.00-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.060.0024.19-0.00-0.03
AkronMAC0.000.0683.3369.840.000.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.0650.0052.330.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0616.6730.02-0.00-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0650.0055.850.000.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0650.0050.940.000.00
Indiana St.MVC1.190.0633.3346.81-0.40-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.060.0039.35-0.00-0.01
UC DavisBW0.000.0657.1448.410.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.000.0650.0054.690.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.060.0033.43-0.00-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.060.0033.44-0.00-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0650.0045.410.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0640.0067.95-0.000.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0633.3323.33-0.00-0.03
StetsonASun0.690.0628.5728.26-0.30-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0640.0041.65-0.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0685.7180.960.000.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0616.6730.27-0.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0616.6736.35-0.00-0.02
DetroitHorz0.000.060.0019.51-0.00-0.04
Green BayHorz0.000.0633.3348.71-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.000.0685.7159.740.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0633.3333.15-0.00-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.06100.0080.780.000.04
TempleAmer0.000.0671.4363.570.000.02
TulaneAmer0.000.0614.2926.81-0.00-0.03
TulsaAmer0.000.0660.0039.200.00-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0685.7174.430.000.03
Wright St.Horz0.000.0671.4355.750.000.01
YaleIvy0.000.0633.3364.14-0.000.02
FloridaSEC0.000.0687.5075.320.000.03
KansasB120.000.0685.7176.170.000.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0666.6758.420.000.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0650.0058.980.000.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0633.3341.52-0.00-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0642.8642.47-0.00-0.01
CornellIvy0.000.0628.5730.63-0.00-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0683.3380.700.000.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0642.8646.78-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0633.3340.39-0.00-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0683.3362.080.000.01
HartfordAE0.000.0612.5022.55-0.00-0.03
HarvardIvy0.000.060.0043.04-0.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.06100.0086.250.000.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0683.3357.990.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0666.6761.340.000.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0633.3340.49-0.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.0671.4349.770.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.0650.0062.460.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0616.6737.09-0.00-0.01
NavyPat0.000.0628.5743.62-0.00-0.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0675.0070.470.000.02
PennIvy0.000.0640.0057.97-0.000.01
RichmondA100.000.0657.1448.600.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0625.0039.28-0.00-0.01
RutgersB100.000.0683.3344.770.00-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0642.8638.05-0.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0650.0046.780.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.000.0657.1447.220.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0657.1467.020.000.02
The CitadelSC0.000.0640.0027.05-0.00-0.03
Notre DameACC0.000.06100.0075.010.000.03
ButlerBE0.000.06100.0075.690.000.03
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0076.650.000.03
Florida St.ACC0.000.0685.7162.410.000.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0671.4363.090.000.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0671.4365.740.000.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.0671.4356.280.000.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0628.5733.92-0.00-0.02
SyracuseACC0.000.0666.6770.140.000.02
XavierBE0.000.06100.0074.800.000.03
Arizona St.P120.690.0357.1436.050.10-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0333.3343.64-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.0340.0050.91-0.000.00
CaliforniaP120.000.0383.3363.610.000.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0360.0039.610.00-0.01
IdahoBSky0.600.0340.0050.88-0.120.00
MercerSC0.000.0350.0053.050.000.00
MinnesotaB100.000.0385.7165.670.000.01
OhioMAC0.000.0380.0068.320.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0328.5723.76-0.00-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.690.0350.0035.230.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0325.0063.95-0.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.03100.0069.770.000.01
VMISC0.000.030.0021.15-0.00-0.02
WashingtonP120.000.0357.1452.630.000.00
West VirginiaB120.000.0383.3380.550.000.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0316.6731.91-0.00-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.690.0342.8640.94-0.10-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.690.030.0017.30-0.69-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0350.0043.490.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.690.030.0023.46-0.69-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0350.0071.330.000.01
FurmanSC0.000.0320.0049.38-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0357.1444.160.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0366.6754.380.000.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0383.3376.370.000.02
JacksonvilleASun0.690.0357.1459.480.100.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.690.0328.5730.29-0.30-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0366.6754.420.000.00
North FloridaASun0.000.0314.2931.71-0.00-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0314.2928.15-0.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0385.7172.660.000.01
San FranciscoWCC0.690.0383.3350.740.460.00
SMUAmer0.000.0357.1469.300.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.690.0383.3361.150.460.01
TroySB0.690.0333.3332.23-0.23-0.01
VCUA100.000.0385.7178.150.000.02
FordhamA100.000.0357.1443.680.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0038.51-0.00-0.01
LipscombASun0.000.0314.2933.07-0.00-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0316.6729.36-0.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0385.7168.390.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0366.6739.720.00-0.01
HowardMEAC0.000.030.0038.26-0.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0371.4350.570.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0383.3356.560.000.00
OregonP120.000.0371.4366.730.000.01
Penn St.B100.000.0362.5043.960.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0385.7155.550.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0383.3370.360.000.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0371.4349.590.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0082.550.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0385.7162.920.000.01
WisconsinB100.000.0375.0073.840.000.01