Elon

Conference:	SC
Expected RPI:	223.5
Current RPI:	209
Expected SOS:	274
Current SOS:	277
Current Record:	10-10
Expected Record:	13-14
Current Conf Record:	7-4
Expected Conf Record:	10-8
Probability of Auto Bid:	2.04%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	10-6
Current OOC Record:	3-6
Expected OOC Record:	3-6
Expected OOC RPI:	189
Expected OOC SOS:	113

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
17-10	136.0	0.01%
16-11	164.8	1.01%
15-12	183.5	5.96%
14-13	202.0	20.60%
13-14	220.3	33.39%
12-15	239.0	27.15%
11-16	257.8	10.26%
10-17	272.6	1.61%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Elon.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Massachusetts (76.4)	A10	A	85-67	L	0%	0.0
11-15	South Carolina (172.1)	SEC	H	58-53	W	100%	0.0
11-22	Princeton (117.6)	Ivy	A	55-56	W	100%	0.0
11-25	North Carolina St. (62.9)	ACC	A	82-67	L	0%	0.0
11-30	Furman (230.9)	SC	H	77-70	W	100%	0.0
12-3	Navy (318.8)	Pat	H	51-48	W	100%	0.0
12-5	NC Greensboro (256.3)	SC	A	72-80	W	100%	0.0
12-17	Dartmouth (320.3)	Ivy	A	62-54	L	0%	0.0
12-22	San Diego St. (26.6)	MWC	A	81-55	L	0%	0.0
12-29	North Carolina (4.6)	ACC	A	100-62	L	0%	0.0
1-5	Georgia Southern (228.1)	SC	H	63-69	L	0%	0.0
1-8	Columbia (150.3)	Ivy	H	60-65	L	0%	0.0
1-12	The Citadel (331.4)	SC	A	55-70	W	100%	0.0
1-14	College of Charleston (128.5)	SC	A	63-44	L	0%	0.0
1-19	Samford (254.7)	SC	H	80-86	L	0%	0.0
1-21	Chattanooga (285.8)	SC	H	88-87	W	100%	0.0
1-26	Western Carolina (259.9)	SC	A	63-71	W	100%	0.0
1-28	Appalachian St. (249.5)	SC	A	81-66	L	0%	0.0
2-2	College of Charleston (128.5)	SC	H	99-98	W	100%	0.0
2-4	The Citadel (331.4)	SC	H	71-66	W	100%	0.0
2-6	Appalachian St. (249.5)	SC	H	0-0		57%	1.9
2-9	Chattanooga (285.8)	SC	A	0-0		31%	-5.5
2-11	Samford (254.7)	SC	A	0-0		39%	-2.9
2-15	Wofford (173.4)	SC	A	0-0		19%	-9.4
2-18	Western Carolina (259.9)	SC	H	0-0		63%	3.7
2-23	Davidson (64.0)	SC	A	0-0		5%	-17.9
2-25	NC Greensboro (256.3)	SC	H	0-0		70%	5.7

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Elon's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Elon's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Elon.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Elon	SC	26.38	26.34	52.27	49.78	1.20	-0.12
NC Greensboro	SC	3.25	4.63	36.36	34.82	-0.89	-1.41
Western Carolina	SC	3.08	4.63	36.36	38.64	-0.84	-1.05
Appalachian St.	SC	3.12	4.59	31.58	36.71	-1.15	-1.22
Chattanooga	SC	3.01	4.57	28.57	35.05	-1.29	-1.37
Samford	SC	3.14	4.56	30.00	31.66	-1.26	-1.67
College of Charleston	SC	5.59	4.54	59.09	60.69	1.02	0.97
The Citadel	SC	5.45	4.49	10.53	12.36	-4.31	-3.38
Davidson	SC	0.80	2.81	76.19	76.09	0.42	1.47
Wofford	SC	0.91	2.81	59.09	57.11	0.17	0.40
Furman	SC	3.24	2.81	50.00	50.70	0.00	0.04
Georgia Southern	SC	3.13	2.78	36.84	38.95	-0.82	-0.61
Columbia	Ivy	2.68	2.02	52.63	53.13	0.14	0.13
Princeton	Ivy	2.61	2.01	50.00	54.82	0.00	0.19
North Carolina	ACC	2.67	2.01	86.36	82.60	1.94	1.31
North Carolina St.	ACC	2.67	2.01	69.57	63.24	1.05	0.53
Dartmouth	Ivy	2.56	1.98	10.00	14.22	-2.05	-1.42
South Carolina	SEC	2.61	1.98	42.86	40.93	-0.37	-0.36
Massachusetts	A10	2.60	1.95	72.73	67.50	1.18	0.68
Navy	Pat	2.50	1.85	10.00	13.69	-2.00	-1.34
San Diego St.	MWC	2.50	1.85	85.00	77.24	1.75	1.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.33	0.32	45.45	44.66	-0.03	-0.03
Miami FL	ACC	0.28	0.28	65.00	60.02	0.08	0.06
Clemson	ACC	0.34	0.26	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.01
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.13	0.23	54.55	56.84	0.01	0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.28	0.23	95.83	92.57	0.26	0.19
Mercer	ASun	0.24	0.20	70.83	71.64	0.10	0.09
Presbyterian	BSth	0.23	0.20	40.91	43.66	-0.04	-0.02
Brown	Ivy	0.13	0.20	27.27	23.80	-0.06	-0.10
Cornell	Ivy	0.25	0.20	36.84	41.45	-0.07	-0.03
Harvard	Ivy	0.18	0.20	90.48	87.91	0.15	0.15
Yale	Ivy	0.13	0.20	72.22	63.19	0.06	0.05
Holy Cross	Pat	0.29	0.20	40.91	42.05	-0.05	-0.03
Florida St.	ACC	0.23	0.19	72.73	71.71	0.10	0.08
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.19	86.36	83.09	0.04	0.12
NC Asheville	BSth	0.26	0.19	68.18	67.64	0.10	0.07
Army	Pat	0.24	0.17	40.91	41.72	-0.04	-0.03
East Carolina	CUSA	0.17	0.16	44.44	41.71	-0.02	-0.03
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.22	0.16	55.00	60.33	0.02	0.03
Maryland	ACC	0.17	0.16	59.09	50.82	0.03	0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.22	0.16	47.83	43.66	-0.01	-0.02
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.13	0.14	52.38	52.86	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.12	0.13	17.39	22.00	-0.08	-0.08
Lafayette	Pat	0.25	0.13	43.48	42.95	-0.03	-0.02
Bucknell	Pat	0.18	0.13	73.91	75.00	0.09	0.07
Colgate	Pat	0.18	0.13	30.43	29.50	-0.07	-0.05
Longwood	ind	0.18	0.13	30.00	27.84	-0.07	-0.06
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.22	0.13	72.22	71.97	0.10	0.06
Georgia	SEC	0.06	0.13	45.45	41.20	-0.01	-0.02
Richmond	A10	0.11	0.13	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.13	71.43	69.05	0.02	0.05
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.11	0.12	69.57	65.87	0.04	0.04
Morehead St.	OVC	0.22	0.12	45.45	46.99	-0.02	-0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.21	0.12	30.43	26.44	-0.08	-0.06
Georgia St.	CAA	0.12	0.10	66.67	69.69	0.04	0.04
American	Pat	0.12	0.10	65.22	63.79	0.04	0.03
High Point	BSth	0.12	0.10	31.82	32.75	-0.04	-0.03
Campbell	BSth	0.11	0.10	56.00	55.65	0.01	0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.18	0.10	45.45	45.55	-0.02	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.12	0.10	19.05	22.37	-0.07	-0.05
Indiana	B10	0.11	0.10	75.00	75.78	0.05	0.05
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.11	0.10	82.61	81.44	0.07	0.06
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.10	24.00	24.86	-0.03	-0.05
Towson	CAA	0.11	0.09	4.00	5.26	-0.10	-0.08
Northeastern	CAA	0.17	0.09	47.83	48.56	-0.01	-0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.09	81.82	76.80	0.03	0.05
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.11	0.09	39.13	42.12	-0.02	-0.01
Denver	SB	0.12	0.07	70.83	72.23	0.05	0.03
James Madison	CAA	0.12	0.07	40.00	40.18	-0.02	-0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.06	0.07	73.91	74.91	0.03	0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.06	0.07	69.57	61.31	0.02	0.02
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.06	0.07	26.32	29.79	-0.03	-0.03
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.06	0.07	60.87	59.76	0.01	0.01
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.06	0.07	76.19	75.94	0.03	0.04
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.06	0.07	57.14	60.75	0.01	0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.12	0.07	45.00	44.15	-0.01	-0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.00	0.07	34.78	34.61	-0.00	-0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.06	0.07	50.00	51.53	0.00	0.00
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.06	0.07	39.13	36.10	-0.01	-0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.12	0.07	56.52	48.81	0.02	-0.00
Albany	AE	0.12	0.07	60.00	60.42	0.02	0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.06	0.07	61.90	58.59	0.01	0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.06	0.07	42.86	41.13	-0.01	-0.01
Butler	Horz	0.06	0.07	50.00	50.80	0.00	0.00
Colorado St.	MWC	0.06	0.07	66.67	60.80	0.02	0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.06	0.07	34.78	38.77	-0.02	-0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.06	0.07	8.70	11.67	-0.05	-0.05
New Mexico	MWC	0.06	0.07	81.82	81.03	0.04	0.04
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.06	0.07	52.38	57.86	0.00	0.01
Texas Christian	MWC	0.06	0.07	57.14	49.54	0.01	-0.00
Utah Valley	GWC	0.06	0.07	54.55	57.69	0.01	0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.06	0.07	76.19	70.73	0.03	0.03
Air Force	MWC	0.06	0.07	47.37	42.16	-0.00	-0.01
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.11	0.07	56.52	57.15	0.01	0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.12	0.06	8.33	10.86	-0.10	-0.05
Rutgers	BE	0.13	0.06	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.00
Monmouth	NEC	0.11	0.06	28.00	28.91	-0.05	-0.03
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.06	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Southern California	P12	0.12	0.06	25.00	25.13	-0.06	-0.03
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.06	80.95	77.38	0.03	0.03
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.06	73.91	68.43	0.03	0.02
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.05	0.06	83.33	84.76	0.04	0.04
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.06	33.33	37.25	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.05	0.06	30.00	31.54	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.06	62.50	61.50	0.01	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.06	65.22	60.58	0.02	0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.05	0.06	80.00	78.06	0.03	0.04
Long Beach St.	BW	0.11	0.06	71.43	73.35	0.05	0.03
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.06	75.00	73.97	0.03	0.03
Central Florida	CUSA	0.10	0.06	71.43	66.60	0.04	0.02
Florida	SEC	0.11	0.06	82.61	77.63	0.07	0.03
George Mason	CAA	0.10	0.06	76.00	72.50	0.05	0.03
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.06	70.83	68.82	0.02	0.02
Louisville	BE	0.10	0.06	78.26	72.66	0.06	0.03
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.06	20.83	20.60	-0.03	-0.04
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.06	62.50	62.49	0.01	0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.11	0.06	50.00	58.16	0.00	0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.06	60.00	59.06	0.01	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.11	0.06	56.52	53.10	0.01	0.00
Texas	B12	0.11	0.06	60.87	61.37	0.02	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.06	56.52	55.20	0.01	0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.06	0.04	50.00	51.73	0.00	0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.06	0.04	52.38	52.87	0.00	0.00
South Florida	BE	0.06	0.04	54.55	48.60	0.01	-0.00
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.06	0.04	38.10	37.86	-0.01	-0.01
Valparaiso	Horz	0.06	0.04	65.22	63.61	0.02	0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.06	0.03	19.05	21.29	-0.04	-0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.06	0.03	20.00	19.96	-0.04	-0.02
Missouri	B12	0.06	0.03	91.30	87.18	0.05	0.03
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.06	0.03	26.09	28.60	-0.03	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.06	0.03	68.18	69.68	0.02	0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.06	0.03	34.78	34.48	-0.02	-0.01
Arizona	P12	0.06	0.03	66.67	68.55	0.02	0.01
Baylor	B12	0.06	0.03	90.91	83.85	0.05	0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.07	0.03	68.42	66.45	0.02	0.01
California	P12	0.06	0.03	75.00	74.61	0.03	0.02
Chicago St.	GWC	0.06	0.03	4.76	9.95	-0.05	-0.03
Connecticut	BE	0.06	0.03	68.18	63.99	0.02	0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.06	0.03	87.50	85.41	0.04	0.02
Drexel	CAA	0.07	0.03	79.17	78.10	0.04	0.02
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.06	0.03	8.70	12.13	-0.05	-0.03
Kansas	B12	0.00	0.03	78.26	78.39	0.00	0.02
Long Island	NEC	0.06	0.03	70.83	71.05	0.03	0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.06	0.03	59.09	57.76	0.01	0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.06	0.03	68.00	69.07	0.02	0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.06	0.03	34.78	33.43	-0.02	-0.01
North Texas	SB	0.06	0.03	50.00	50.01	0.00	0.00
Rider	MAAC	0.07	0.03	37.50	38.52	-0.02	-0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.06	0.03	33.33	33.82	-0.02	-0.01
Southern Utah	Sum	0.06	0.03	45.45	44.30	-0.01	-0.00
Stony Brook	AE	0.06	0.03	66.67	68.05	0.02	0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.06	0.03	0.00	5.37	-0.06	-0.03
UC Riverside	BW	0.06	0.03	42.86	39.66	-0.01	-0.01
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.06	0.03	55.56	58.01	0.01	0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.07	0.03	82.61	84.57	0.04	0.02
Wichita St.	MVC	0.00	0.03	82.61	80.42	0.00	0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.03	28.57	34.20	-0.03	-0.01
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.06	0.03	35.00	35.31	-0.02	-0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.00	0.03	34.78	35.20	-0.00	-0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.06	0.03	35.00	38.58	-0.02	-0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.06	0.03	65.22	62.65	0.02	0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.00	0.03	35.00	40.78	-0.00	-0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.06	0.03	56.52	53.77	0.01	0.00
Vermont	AE	0.06	0.03	60.00	62.49	0.01	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.06	0.03	68.18	69.10	0.02	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.00	0.03	69.57	65.15	0.00	0.01
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.05	0.03	45.45	45.70	-0.00	-0.00
Dayton	A10	0.00	0.03	60.87	60.96	0.00	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.03	59.09	56.35	0.01	0.00
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.03	40.91	34.50	-0.01	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.03	34.78	32.08	-0.02	-0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.00	0.03	59.09	57.28	0.00	0.00
Mississippi	SEC	0.06	0.03	63.64	56.71	0.02	0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.00	0.03	78.26	72.34	0.00	0.01
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.05	0.03	33.33	38.38	-0.02	-0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.06	0.03	86.96	85.46	0.04	0.02
Providence	BE	0.06	0.03	56.52	50.27	0.01	0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.06	0.03	10.00	14.93	-0.05	-0.02
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.06	0.03	54.55	56.09	0.01	0.00
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.06	0.03	27.78	29.58	-0.03	-0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.03	77.27	77.67	0.03	0.02
Temple	A10	0.00	0.03	77.27	75.06	0.00	0.02
Utah	P12	0.05	0.03	18.18	15.01	-0.03	-0.02
Xavier	A10	0.00	0.03	65.22	63.74	0.00	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	35.29	39.85	-0.02	-0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.05	0.03	45.45	44.02	-0.00	-0.00
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.03	76.19	72.91	0.03	0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	25.00	23.75	-0.03	-0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.03	38.89	43.93	-0.01	-0.00
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.03	69.57	68.29	0.02	0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.05	0.03	95.83	92.01	0.05	0.03