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Through games of Dec 21, 2014.


Elon

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:184.1
Current RPI:182
Expected SOS:224
Current SOS:214
Current Record:4-5
Expected Record:15-14
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-2
Current OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:193
Expected OOC SOS:308



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-770.00.03%
21-886.00.07%
20-996.90.60%
19-10110.02.51%
18-11126.75.63%
17-12143.310.62%
16-13160.716.32%
15-14178.919.72%
14-15198.118.45%
13-16217.613.62%
12-17237.17.72%
11-18255.43.32%
10-19272.71.07%
9-20287.40.27%
8-21304.00.03%
7-22303.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Elon.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Florida Atlantic (201.1)CUSAH64-58W100%0.0
11-16Charlotte (84.8)CUSAH60-73L0%0.0
11-22Northwestern (155.0)B10A68-67L0%0.0
11-25Morgan St. (305.3)MEACN74-73W100%0.0
11-26North Florida (153.0)ASunN72-65L0%0.0
11-30Miami OH (270.8)MACA68-70W100%0.0
12-11Missouri (180.6)SECA78-73L0%0.0
12-15Duke (4.7)ACCA75-62L0%0.0
12-20UNC Greensboro (286.8)SCA64-71W100%0.0
12-22Kennesaw St. (311.4)ASunA0-076%8.4
12-28Marist (334.3)MAACH0-092%16.5
1-3Drexel (236.4)CAAA0-044%-1.9
1-5Towson (220.2)CAAA0-049%-0.3
1-8William & Mary (102.1)CAAH0-052%0.7
1-10Hofstra (72.8)CAAH0-033%-5.0
1-14College of Charleston (184.3)CAAH0-066%4.9
1-17James Madison (140.1)CAAA0-034%-4.7
1-22Towson (220.2)CAAH0-076%8.2
1-24Delaware (331.9)CAAH0-094%18.2
1-28UNC Wilmington (113.9)CAAA0-029%-6.4
1-31Northeastern (131.5)CAAA0-029%-6.4
2-5Drexel (236.4)CAAH0-072%6.7
2-7Hofstra (72.8)CAAA0-012%-13.6
2-11William & Mary (102.1)CAAA0-025%-7.8
2-14James Madison (140.1)CAAH0-063%3.9
2-18College of Charleston (184.3)CAAA0-038%-3.6
2-21Delaware (331.9)CAAA0-080%9.6
2-26Northeastern (131.5)CAAH0-057%2.2
2-28UNC Wilmington (113.9)CAAH0-057%2.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Elon's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Elon's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Elon.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ElonCAA27.5226.3751.1653.390.641.79
College of CharlestonCAA0.254.4245.4544.86-0.02-0.45
TowsonCAA0.234.4160.0047.890.05-0.19
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.284.4157.1455.180.040.46
HofstraCAA0.004.3970.0076.520.002.33
James MadisonCAA0.004.3963.6456.660.000.58
NortheasternCAA0.004.3970.0059.960.000.87
DelawareCAA0.004.380.008.11-0.00-3.67
DrexelCAA0.004.3822.2235.53-0.00-1.27
William & MaryCAA0.004.3757.1456.870.000.60
CharlotteCUSA5.561.8150.0062.830.000.46
North FloridaASun5.811.8144.4456.35-0.650.23
Kennesaw St.ASun0.001.7933.3328.88-0.00-0.75
UNC GreensboroSC5.561.7922.2236.12-3.09-0.50
NorthwesternB106.111.7860.0040.791.22-0.33
Morgan St.MEAC5.561.7818.1836.42-3.54-0.48
Florida AtlanticCUSA5.561.7550.0049.970.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC5.811.7533.3329.61-1.94-0.71
DukeACC5.561.72100.0086.305.561.25
MaristMAAC0.001.729.0915.79-0.00-1.18
MissouriSEC5.561.7233.3330.04-1.85-0.69
Old DominionCUSA0.000.2190.0082.040.000.14
LibertyBSth0.790.2125.0035.29-0.39-0.06
JacksonvilleASun0.000.2110.0018.51-0.00-0.13
Miami FLACC0.510.2081.8266.060.320.06
East CarolinaAmer0.400.1833.3338.20-0.13-0.04
RichmondA100.000.1860.0057.960.000.03
La SalleA100.000.1754.5553.370.000.01
CampbellBSth0.000.1725.0043.91-0.00-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.170.0013.95-0.00-0.12
Norfolk St.MEAC0.230.1754.5559.550.020.03
WoffordSC0.000.1577.7875.500.000.08
StetsonASun0.400.1510.0026.86-0.32-0.07
VMISC0.000.1533.3338.75-0.00-0.03
RiceCUSA0.000.1516.6726.53-0.00-0.07
High PointBSth0.280.1566.6761.820.090.04
North CarolinaACC0.280.1572.7374.520.130.07
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.1577.7869.870.000.06
LipscombASun0.000.1530.0039.53-0.00-0.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.1533.3343.26-0.00-0.02
Penn St.B100.480.1591.6755.080.400.01
DavidsonA100.250.1588.8976.830.200.08
FurmanSC0.280.1522.2231.93-0.15-0.05
TempleAmer0.280.1463.6456.720.080.02
ManhattanMAAC0.230.1430.0037.19-0.09-0.04
FairfieldMAAC0.280.1440.0037.46-0.06-0.04
FIUCUSA0.000.1240.0047.08-0.00-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.1237.5027.75-0.00-0.05
USC UpstateASun0.000.1263.6467.200.000.04
MarshallCUSA0.000.1222.2236.55-0.00-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.1250.0051.800.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.1277.7871.240.000.05
IonaMAAC0.000.1260.0069.180.000.05
OhioMAC0.000.1242.8637.93-0.00-0.03
The CitadelSC0.000.1214.2931.52-0.00-0.04
AlabamaSEC0.000.1270.0052.050.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.280.1218.1830.67-0.18-0.05
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.1237.5039.38-0.00-0.02
ArmyPat0.280.1280.0067.350.170.04
LongwoodBSth0.560.1220.0025.91-0.33-0.06
Cal PolyBW0.000.1237.5041.68-0.00-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.000.1150.0058.250.000.02
Florida St.ACC0.280.1154.5541.660.03-0.02
IllinoisB100.280.1175.0065.050.140.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.1120.0027.60-0.00-0.05
NavyPat0.000.1120.0022.49-0.00-0.06
Texas A&MSEC0.000.1170.0061.360.000.03
Ohio St.B100.000.1181.8282.150.000.07
Western MichiganMAC0.250.1155.5652.210.030.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0963.6464.970.000.03
HowardMEAC0.000.0930.0043.77-0.00-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0954.5548.910.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.000.0930.0035.75-0.00-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0940.0049.35-0.00-0.00
MercerSC0.000.0944.4443.16-0.00-0.01
SamfordSC0.000.0938.4634.30-0.00-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0960.0042.970.00-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.09100.0084.350.000.06
MinnesotaB100.000.0980.0068.200.000.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.280.0975.0066.160.140.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0936.3646.70-0.00-0.01
HarvardIvy0.400.0975.0063.910.200.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.0950.0041.130.00-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.760.0990.9183.170.620.06
South CarolinaSEC0.530.0966.6765.440.180.03
PurdueB100.560.0966.6759.240.190.02
StanfordP120.280.0966.6758.210.090.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0977.7858.610.000.02
UMBCAE0.000.0918.1825.24-0.00-0.04
IowaB100.000.0966.6759.170.000.02
RiderMAAC0.230.0950.0052.960.000.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0960.0057.780.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.250.0970.0059.760.100.02
Virginia TechACC0.510.0960.0038.340.10-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.0825.0037.11-0.00-0.02
LSUSEC0.000.0880.0063.750.000.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0862.5057.910.000.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0827.2735.54-0.00-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.280.0881.8272.960.180.04
Appalachian St.SB0.250.0833.3338.71-0.08-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.280.0850.0058.340.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.250.0880.0053.820.150.01
Michigan St.B100.280.0866.6766.950.090.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0875.0061.160.000.02
VirginiaACC0.000.08100.0089.960.000.07
WisconsinB100.280.0890.9188.760.230.06
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0637.5031.93-0.00-0.02
ColoradoP120.000.0666.6757.910.000.01
CornellIvy0.000.0650.0046.480.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.280.0671.4363.340.120.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.280.0644.4449.08-0.03-0.00
USCP120.000.0663.6440.160.00-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0627.2743.96-0.00-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.400.0666.6763.320.130.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.280.0645.4543.17-0.03-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0672.7367.570.000.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.0663.6472.270.000.03
UTSACUSA0.000.0637.5035.62-0.00-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.280.060.0011.84-0.28-0.05
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0616.6733.12-0.00-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0630.0038.92-0.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0677.7865.410.000.02
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0083.420.000.04
IndianaB100.280.0681.8263.040.180.02
PresbyterianBSth0.560.060.008.70-0.56-0.05
ButlerBE0.250.0672.7368.580.110.02
AkronMAC0.000.0660.0056.450.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0680.0072.430.000.03
AuburnSEC0.000.0650.0039.580.00-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0675.0067.220.000.02
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0660.0064.660.000.02
HamptonMEAC0.230.0650.0051.710.000.00
KentuckySEC0.000.06100.0096.240.000.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0638.4644.44-0.00-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0644.4437.49-0.00-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0612.5029.75-0.00-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0642.8633.60-0.00-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0650.0053.920.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0636.3647.95-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.000.0633.3349.48-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.280.0620.0040.46-0.17-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0660.0038.770.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.250.0685.7170.650.180.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0023.75-0.00-0.03
ToledoMAC0.000.0663.6461.500.000.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0630.0041.58-0.00-0.01
ColgatePat0.000.0620.0043.19-0.00-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0666.6769.260.000.02
DetroitHorz0.000.0640.0047.83-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0637.5049.96-0.00-0.00
George MasonA100.000.0633.3329.75-0.00-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0616.6743.50-0.00-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0633.3344.93-0.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0654.5551.400.000.00
MichiganB100.000.0650.0040.340.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0691.6776.600.000.03
RadfordBSth0.000.0660.0062.090.000.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0655.5660.570.000.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0644.4436.96-0.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0640.0041.10-0.00-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0640.0055.83-0.000.01
WagnerNEC0.000.0612.5031.01-0.00-0.02
West VirginiaB120.000.0690.9170.260.000.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.0645.4537.63-0.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0350.0068.830.000.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.400.0330.0042.78-0.16-0.00
UCFAmer0.400.0355.5635.910.04-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0320.0029.06-0.00-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0026.25-0.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0390.9168.430.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0350.0054.280.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0014.49-0.00-0.02
ArizonaP120.280.03100.0082.820.280.02
BucknellPat0.000.0340.0037.24-0.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0318.1822.91-0.00-0.02
DaytonA100.280.0380.0069.340.170.01
EvansvilleMVC0.280.0380.0073.040.170.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0327.2729.51-0.00-0.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0366.6754.450.000.00
HoustonAmer0.230.0362.5041.050.06-0.01
IPFWSum0.280.0350.0054.440.000.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0360.0049.390.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.000.0370.0052.340.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0350.0071.160.000.01
OklahomaB120.280.0370.0062.800.110.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0380.0058.040.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.280.0340.0043.53-0.06-0.00
PennIvy0.000.0337.5033.40-0.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0318.1827.26-0.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.280.0340.0046.04-0.06-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.280.0314.2930.32-0.20-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0355.5646.470.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.230.0344.4448.17-0.03-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.0350.0042.770.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0366.6758.480.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.280.0360.0057.740.060.00
XavierBE0.280.0372.7367.750.130.01
BrownIvy0.250.0340.0034.38-0.05-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0360.0043.870.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.250.0366.6765.780.080.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.250.0316.6736.42-0.17-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0318.1820.68-0.00-0.02
MarylandB100.000.0391.6772.610.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.250.039.0917.38-0.21-0.02
NebraskaB100.000.0366.6744.010.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0370.0052.280.000.00
RutgersB100.000.0354.5532.610.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0388.8965.680.000.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.250.0312.5039.50-0.19-0.01