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Through games of Jan 20, 2017.


Bradley

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:244.3
Current RPI:209
Expected SOS:144
Current SOS:132
Current Record:7-12
Expected Record:10-20
Current Conf Record:3-4
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-5
Current OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC RPI:261
Expected OOC SOS:203



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-15160.90.07%
14-16180.90.67%
13-17198.43.02%
12-18215.110.55%
11-19231.122.20%
10-20245.427.79%
9-21259.623.24%
8-22274.410.56%
7-23288.21.89%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Bradley.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Delaware (268.2)CAAH49-63L0%0.0
11-18Southeast Missouri St. (307.0)OVCH84-78W100%0.0
11-21Hofstra (200.9)CAAN90-92L0%0.0
11-22Wofford (213.7)SCN70-62W100%0.0
11-23George Mason (138.8)A10N77-66L0%0.0
11-29Eastern Illinois (270.0)OVCA83-87W100%0.0
12-3Nevada (34.9)MWCH69-91L0%0.0
12-6Ball St. (202.6)MACA80-63L0%0.0
12-10Chicago St. (284.1)WACH83-48W100%0.0
12-16UT Arlington (56.4)SBH51-56L0%0.0
12-19Mississippi (84.4)SECA66-49L0%0.0
12-21TCU (39.4)B12A74-42L0%0.0
12-29Southern Illinois (161.7)MVCH60-51W100%0.0
1-1Wichita St. (49.6)MVCA100-66L0%0.0
1-4Evansville (197.4)MVCA63-74W100%0.0
1-7Loyola Chicago (138.3)MVCH62-78L0%0.0
1-11Northern Iowa (192.7)MVCH72-61W100%0.0
1-14Indiana St. (213.4)MVCA81-71L0%0.0
1-18Illinois St. (34.0)MVCH49-69L0%0.0
1-21Missouri St. (161.4)MVCA0-016%-11.2
1-25Loyola Chicago (138.3)MVCA0-015%-11.8
1-29Wichita St. (49.6)MVCH0-05%-18.0
2-1Southern Illinois (161.7)MVCA0-023%-8.3
2-4Drake (289.6)MVCH0-061%3.0
2-8Indiana St. (213.4)MVCH0-047%-0.8
2-11Illinois St. (34.0)MVCA0-04%-19.3
2-15Northern Iowa (192.7)MVCA0-021%-9.1
2-18Evansville (197.4)MVCH0-044%-1.8
2-22Missouri St. (161.4)MVCH0-033%-5.0
2-25Drake (289.6)MVCA0-039%-3.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Bradley's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Bradley's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Bradley.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BradleyMVC26.4126.3734.0731.80-8.42-9.60
Missouri St.MVC0.724.3463.1658.450.190.73
Indiana St.MVC3.004.3129.4132.90-1.23-1.47
Illinois St.MVC3.074.2876.4777.021.622.31
Northern IowaMVC3.004.2737.5039.19-0.75-0.92
Southern IllinoisMVC2.854.2555.5648.370.32-0.14
Wichita St.MVC3.004.2577.7881.961.672.72
EvansvilleMVC2.924.2547.0644.71-0.17-0.45
Loyola ChicagoMVC2.934.2558.8257.220.520.61
DrakeMVC0.504.2529.4125.99-0.21-2.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC2.701.8733.3336.94-0.90-0.49
Eastern IllinoisOVC2.701.7843.7547.95-0.34-0.07
TCUB122.791.7575.0062.371.390.43
Chicago St.WAC2.701.7517.6518.97-1.75-1.09
George MasonA102.711.7362.5055.010.680.17
Ball St.MAC2.701.7262.5054.590.680.16
HofstraCAA2.701.7238.8941.54-0.60-0.29
DelawareCAA2.701.7229.4128.43-1.11-0.74
WoffordSC2.711.6933.3342.00-0.90-0.27
MississippiSEC2.631.6758.8253.530.460.12
NevadaMWC2.631.6783.3377.971.750.93
UT ArlingtonSB2.631.6766.6769.210.880.64
Murray St.OVC0.370.3250.0055.770.000.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.360.2657.8957.540.060.04
Saint LouisA100.440.2627.7824.32-0.20-0.13
Austin PeayOVC0.310.2422.2227.15-0.17-0.11
DePaulBE0.140.2342.1130.39-0.02-0.09
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.140.1722.2223.82-0.08-0.09
South Dakota St.Sum0.150.1731.5833.41-0.05-0.06
Iowa St.B120.150.1764.7161.830.040.04
OklahomaB120.220.1747.0641.20-0.01-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.220.1777.7877.270.120.09
Northern IllinoisMAC0.150.1760.0053.460.030.01
ToledoMAC0.150.1752.9452.870.010.01
TulsaAmer0.220.1758.8251.180.040.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.220.1788.8986.040.170.12
Saint Joseph'sA100.300.1747.0646.29-0.02-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.210.1784.2179.280.140.10
TowsonCAA0.290.1752.6354.610.020.02
TroySB0.310.1547.0648.13-0.02-0.01
UMKCWAC0.070.1538.8939.92-0.02-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.150.1452.6352.920.010.01
IonaMAAC0.210.1460.0063.140.040.04
James MadisonCAA0.150.1426.3229.57-0.07-0.06
Oral RobertsSum0.150.1422.2229.94-0.08-0.06
UNLVMWC0.150.1447.3743.68-0.01-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.300.1226.6727.53-0.14-0.05
XavierBE0.150.1272.2267.680.070.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.220.1252.9451.110.010.00
Morehead St.OVC0.150.1235.2941.48-0.04-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.230.1243.7541.41-0.03-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.150.1121.4336.55-0.08-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.150.1118.7535.73-0.09-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.070.1158.8254.690.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.150.1135.2935.14-0.04-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.140.1173.6869.690.070.04
DrexelCAA0.070.1133.3333.71-0.02-0.04
ElonCAA0.070.1150.0051.340.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.150.1163.1659.530.040.02
William & MaryCAA0.070.1146.6747.54-0.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.140.1161.1156.230.030.01
LSUSEC0.150.1152.9438.780.01-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.230.1140.0050.05-0.050.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.230.1150.0066.300.000.04
Boise St.MWC0.070.1162.5063.120.020.03
New MexicoMWC0.140.1157.8958.030.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.140.1158.8264.380.030.03
Utah St.MWC0.070.1143.7543.98-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.150.1177.7870.290.080.05
Oklahoma St.B120.070.1152.9450.580.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.070.1141.1837.57-0.01-0.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.220.0955.5656.000.020.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.140.0933.3333.28-0.05-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.220.0931.5832.58-0.08-0.03
MercerSC0.160.0933.3343.06-0.05-0.01
South DakotaSum0.070.0955.0054.820.010.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.160.0943.7543.71-0.02-0.01
WyomingMWC0.150.0964.7157.710.040.01
Central MichiganMAC0.150.0956.2551.810.020.00
Kent St.MAC0.240.0947.0648.10-0.01-0.00
IUPUISum0.150.0938.8943.16-0.03-0.01
MissouriSEC0.080.0829.4125.93-0.03-0.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.150.0883.3383.150.100.06
MinnesotaB100.150.0878.9570.150.090.03
TexasB120.160.0838.8935.38-0.04-0.02
BaylorB120.000.0894.1280.880.000.05
BuffaloMAC0.150.0837.5044.96-0.04-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0852.9450.600.000.00
MassachusettsA100.150.0863.1660.390.040.02
WashingtonP120.220.0850.0043.390.00-0.01
AuburnSEC0.070.0866.6755.390.020.01
BelmontOVC0.070.0675.0074.470.030.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0658.8261.440.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.070.0631.5833.34-0.03-0.02
Arizona St.P120.080.0647.3744.51-0.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0653.3361.620.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0675.0074.870.040.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0670.5973.700.000.03
FurmanSC0.080.0652.9458.360.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0661.1163.070.000.02
IowaB100.080.0655.0049.300.01-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0631.2545.45-0.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.0611.1122.97-0.00-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.0688.2484.520.060.04
North CarolinaACC0.080.0684.2180.600.050.04
North DakotaBSky0.080.0650.0057.040.000.01
SamfordSC0.080.0664.7160.050.020.01
SeattleWAC0.070.0640.0037.08-0.01-0.02
The CitadelSC0.080.0633.3328.99-0.03-0.03
UC DavisBW0.000.0652.9454.710.000.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0670.5964.080.000.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.070.0640.0044.67-0.01-0.01
VMISC0.080.0613.3315.24-0.06-0.04
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0623.5321.80-0.00-0.03
VermontAE0.150.0675.0077.360.080.03
Appalachian St.SB0.080.0628.5731.47-0.04-0.02
ButlerBE0.070.0684.2178.340.050.03
Fort WayneSum0.070.0664.7166.910.020.02
HawaiiBW0.070.0643.7546.21-0.01-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0662.5062.710.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0625.0028.40-0.00-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0626.3228.81-0.03-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0668.4252.190.030.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.070.0642.1141.75-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0663.1660.550.020.01
StanfordP120.070.0655.5648.060.01-0.00
Texas St.SB0.080.0653.3345.980.01-0.00
Washington St.P120.070.0647.0633.39-0.00-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.0647.3745.06-0.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.140.0672.2274.630.060.03
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0664.7165.930.020.02
FordhamA100.080.0638.8935.26-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.070.0668.7564.060.030.02
Miami OHMAC0.150.0637.5034.55-0.04-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.150.0647.0644.32-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.150.0688.8987.310.120.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.066.2511.88-0.00-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.150.0618.7527.90-0.10-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.150.0622.2225.60-0.08-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0653.3356.530.000.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0652.6348.070.00-0.00
KansasB120.080.0694.4481.800.070.04
Kansas St.B120.000.0677.7862.260.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0626.3236.97-0.03-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.150.0625.0023.83-0.08-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0612.5033.82-0.05-0.02
Michigan St.B100.070.0663.1657.700.020.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0664.7162.600.000.01
RichmondA100.000.0661.1157.870.000.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0662.5063.260.020.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0614.2929.27-0.05-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.150.0666.6762.870.050.01
Texas TechB120.080.0677.7865.330.040.02
USCP120.000.0680.0071.930.000.02
VCUA100.080.0673.6870.630.040.02
West VirginiaB120.080.0683.3380.700.050.03
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0631.2536.88-0.00-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.080.0564.7157.700.020.01
KentuckySEC0.140.0588.8987.510.110.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0570.5958.250.000.01
San Jose St.MWC0.070.0546.6738.45-0.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0582.3574.990.050.03
TennesseeSEC0.070.0547.0648.42-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.080.0350.0052.890.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.080.0361.1147.020.02-0.00
Miami FLACC0.080.0370.5960.550.030.01
NorthwesternB100.070.0378.9569.160.040.01
Notre DameACC0.070.0384.2176.540.050.02
WisconsinB100.070.0383.3381.320.050.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.0321.0528.89-0.04-0.01
CornellIvy0.070.0320.0024.53-0.04-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0317.6529.60-0.05-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0364.7169.850.020.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0362.5060.090.000.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0353.3355.990.000.00
IllinoisB100.070.0361.1153.360.020.00
IndianaB100.070.0368.4264.610.030.01
Little RockSB0.000.0356.2551.110.000.00
MaristMAAC0.070.0331.5829.24-0.03-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.080.0325.0029.15-0.04-0.01
Seton HallBE0.070.0366.6758.230.020.00
South FloridaAmer0.070.0335.2928.97-0.02-0.01
YaleIvy0.070.0360.0065.720.010.01
AkronMAC0.000.0383.3376.940.000.01
ColumbiaIvy0.070.0346.1546.15-0.01-0.00
DavidsonA100.000.0352.9453.560.000.00
DaytonA100.000.0376.4776.940.000.01
DuquesneA100.000.0347.3741.47-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0320.0026.44-0.04-0.01
HoustonAmer0.080.0368.4268.060.030.01
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0335.0036.31-0.02-0.01
North FloridaASun0.080.0323.5331.23-0.04-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0366.6767.550.000.01
PennIvy0.080.0342.8647.98-0.01-0.00
Penn St.B100.080.0357.8949.820.01-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0317.6535.33-0.05-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0364.7167.120.000.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.070.0340.0040.81-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.070.0340.0045.18-0.01-0.00
SMUAmer0.080.0380.0077.810.050.02
Southern UtahBSky0.080.0311.7618.03-0.06-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.070.0355.5654.430.010.00
CreightonBE0.070.0394.4484.720.060.02
FloridaSEC0.070.0377.7874.930.040.01
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0364.7158.520.020.00
MemphisAmer0.070.0373.6867.200.030.01
MontanaBSky0.070.0350.0058.290.000.00
Oregon St.P120.070.0316.6713.65-0.05-0.02
PacificWCC0.070.0336.8435.66-0.02-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0352.9451.020.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.070.0352.6360.240.000.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.070.0313.3327.07-0.05-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0344.4442.60-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.070.0377.7862.530.040.01