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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Bradley

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:220.0
Current RPI:220
Expected SOS:135
Current SOS:135
Current Record:12-20
Expected Record:12-20
Current Conf Record:8-12
Expected Conf Record:8-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-4
Current OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC RPI:239
Expected OOC SOS:153



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-20220.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Bradley.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Delaware (235.0)CAAH49-63L0%0.0
11-18Southeast Missouri St. (274.0)OVCH84-78W100%0.0
11-21Hofstra (196.0)CAAN90-92L0%0.0
11-22Wofford (190.0)SCN70-62W100%0.0
11-23George Mason (103.0)A10N77-66L0%0.0
11-29Eastern Illinois (265.0)OVCA83-87W100%0.0
12-3Nevada (29.0)MWCH69-91L0%0.0
12-6Ball St. (169.0)MACA80-63L0%0.0
12-10Chicago St. (318.0)WACH83-48W100%0.0
12-16UT Arlington (45.0)SBH51-56L0%0.0
12-19Mississippi (77.0)SECA66-49L0%0.0
12-21TCU (67.0)B12A74-42L0%0.0
12-29Southern Illinois (145.0)MVCH60-51W100%0.0
1-1Wichita St. (32.0)MVCA100-66L0%0.0
1-4Evansville (188.0)MVCA63-74W100%0.0
1-7Loyola Chicago (182.0)MVCH62-78L0%0.0
1-11Northern Iowa (163.0)MVCH72-61W100%0.0
1-14Indiana St. (234.0)MVCA81-71L0%0.0
1-18Illinois St. (33.0)MVCH49-69L0%0.0
1-21Missouri St. (210.0)MVCA76-62L0%0.0
1-25Loyola Chicago (182.0)MVCA70-50L0%0.0
1-29Wichita St. (32.0)MVCH49-64L0%0.0
2-1Southern Illinois (145.0)MVCA85-65L0%0.0
2-4Drake (314.0)MVCH79-72W100%0.0
2-8Indiana St. (234.0)MVCH54-56L0%0.0
2-11Illinois St. (33.0)MVCA64-50L0%0.0
2-15Northern Iowa (163.0)MVCA64-61L0%0.0
2-18Evansville (188.0)MVCH84-72W100%0.0
2-22Missouri St. (210.0)MVCH77-68W100%0.0
2-25Drake (314.0)MVCA74-82W100%0.0
3-2Drake (314.0)MVCN67-58W100%0.0
3-3Wichita St. (32.0)MVCN82-56L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Bradley's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Bradley's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Bradley.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BradleyMVC26.4726.4735.6235.62-7.61-7.61
Wichita St.MVC5.665.6686.6786.674.154.15
DrakeMVC5.545.5423.0823.08-2.98-2.98
Missouri St.MVC4.244.2450.0050.000.000.00
Illinois St.MVC4.234.2380.0080.002.542.54
Southern IllinoisMVC4.144.1450.0050.000.000.00
EvansvilleMVC4.144.1448.2848.28-0.14-0.14
Indiana St.MVC4.144.1428.5728.57-1.77-1.77
Northern IowaMVC4.104.1044.4444.44-0.46-0.46
Loyola ChicagoMVC4.084.0850.0050.000.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC1.741.7443.3343.33-0.23-0.23
Eastern IllinoisOVC1.661.6646.1546.15-0.13-0.13
DelawareCAA1.641.6433.3333.33-0.55-0.55
HofstraCAA1.641.6443.3343.33-0.22-0.22
TCUB121.641.6453.1253.120.100.10
Chicago St.WAC1.641.6410.7110.71-1.29-1.29
George MasonA101.621.6258.0658.060.260.26
Ball St.MAC1.611.6161.2961.290.360.36
WoffordSC1.591.5944.8344.83-0.16-0.16
MississippiSEC1.561.5659.3859.380.290.29
NevadaMWC1.561.5681.8281.820.990.99
UT ArlingtonSB1.561.5673.3373.330.730.73
Murray St.OVC0.280.2845.1645.16-0.03-0.03
Saint LouisA100.250.2536.3636.36-0.07-0.07
DePaulBE0.230.2328.1228.12-0.10-0.10
Tennessee MartinOVC0.230.2361.2961.290.050.05
Austin PeayOVC0.210.2132.1432.14-0.07-0.07
South Dakota St.Sum0.210.2150.0050.000.000.00
Iowa St.B120.200.2069.7069.700.080.08
OklahomaB120.200.2035.4835.48-0.06-0.06
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.180.1884.3884.380.120.12
LouisvilleACC0.170.1775.0075.000.090.09
TulsaAmer0.170.1746.8846.88-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.160.1646.6746.67-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.160.1617.8617.86-0.10-0.10
Northern IllinoisMAC0.150.1541.3841.38-0.03-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.150.1574.1974.190.070.07
IonaMAAC0.150.1564.7164.710.040.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
ToledoMAC0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.150.1560.0060.000.030.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.150.1535.4835.48-0.04-0.04
TowsonCAA0.150.1559.3859.380.030.03
TroySB0.140.1458.8258.820.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.130.1328.1228.12-0.05-0.05
Oral RobertsSum0.120.1221.4321.43-0.07-0.07
ArkansasSEC0.120.1273.5373.530.060.06
Utah St.MWC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
LSUSEC0.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
UNLVMWC0.120.1234.3834.38-0.04-0.04
Oklahoma St.B120.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
Colorado St.MWC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
Western IllinoisSum0.110.1123.0823.08-0.06-0.06
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
XavierBE0.110.1161.7661.760.030.03
South DakotaSum0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
Morehead St.OVC0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.100.1072.7372.730.050.05
DrexelCAA0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
ElonCAA0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
MissouriSEC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Bowling GreenMAC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.100.1055.8855.880.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.1067.6567.650.030.03
Boise St.MWC0.100.1062.0762.070.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0821.8821.88-0.05-0.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0883.3383.330.050.05
UC DavisBW0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0853.5753.570.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
WyomingMWC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
MercerSC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0787.8887.880.060.06
FordhamA100.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
IUPUISum0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
AuburnSEC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
BaylorB120.070.0777.4277.420.040.04
KansasB120.070.0787.5087.500.050.05
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
WashingtonP120.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
BelmontOVC0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Arizona St.P120.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
IowaB100.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
North DakotaBSky0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
SeattleWAC0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
FurmanSC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0529.4129.41-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
StanfordP120.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
VMISC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Washington St.P120.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
VermontAE0.050.0584.8584.850.040.04
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
OaklandHorz0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
La SalleA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
AkronMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.056.906.90-0.04-0.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
RichmondA100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
USCP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
AlabamaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Kansas St.B120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
WisconsinB100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
ColoradoP120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Miami FLACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
IllinoisB100.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
IndianaB100.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Little RockSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
SienaMAAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
YaleIvy0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
DavidsonA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
DaytonA100.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
DuquesneA100.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
North FloridaASun0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
PennIvy0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.020.0212.9012.90-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
FloridaSEC0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
MemphisAmer0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
MontanaBSky0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
SMUAmer0.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Oregon St.P120.020.0212.9012.90-0.02-0.02
PacificWCC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0218.5218.52-0.01-0.01