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Through games of Feb 7, 2016.


Bradley

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:305.4
Current RPI:295
Expected SOS:116
Current SOS:102
Current Record:3-21
Expected Record:4-26
Current Conf Record:2-10
Expected Conf Record:3-15
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:2-7
Current OOC Record:1-11
Expected OOC Record:1-11
Expected OOC RPI:303
Expected OOC SOS:71



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-22239.00.01%
7-23264.40.20%
6-24280.12.67%
5-25294.516.35%
4-26304.744.09%
3-27313.136.67%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Bradley.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Ball St. (155.9)MACH54-53W100%0.0
11-16Arizona (25.9)P12A90-60L0%0.0
11-19Virginia (6.1)ACCN57-82L0%0.0
11-20Seton Hall (47.3)BEN59-67L0%0.0
11-22Towson (154.0)CAAN60-62L0%0.0
11-25New Orleans (312.0)SlndH51-64L0%0.0
11-28Mississippi (111.4)SECH54-67L0%0.0
12-1Delaware (274.4)CAAA70-47L0%0.0
12-5North Dakota (209.6)BSkyH59-65L0%0.0
12-8UT Arlington (101.9)SBA97-61L0%0.0
12-20Boise St. (89.1)MWCA90-70L0%0.0
12-23TCU (174.7)B12H49-53L0%0.0
12-30Northern Iowa (114.8)MVCA80-44L0%0.0
1-3Wichita St. (37.4)MVCH58-85L0%0.0
1-6Southern Illinois (139.9)MVCH44-65L0%0.0
1-9Evansville (74.1)MVCA67-35L0%0.0
1-13Loyola Chicago (239.2)MVCA53-54W100%0.0
1-16Missouri St. (234.9)MVCH42-61L0%0.0
1-20Illinois St. (129.8)MVCH52-55L0%0.0
1-23Wichita St. (37.4)MVCA88-54L0%0.0
1-27Northern Iowa (114.8)MVCH50-68L0%0.0
1-30Drake (305.3)MVCA80-70L0%0.0
2-2Missouri St. (234.9)MVCA77-71L0%0.0
2-6Indiana St. (146.9)MVCH63-58W100%0.0
2-10Loyola Chicago (239.2)MVCH0-027%-6.8
2-14Illinois St. (129.8)MVCA0-06%-16.5
2-17Southern Illinois (139.9)MVCA0-05%-18.0
2-20Drake (305.3)MVCH0-037%-3.6
2-23Evansville (74.1)MVCH0-05%-17.4
2-27Indiana St. (146.9)MVCA0-05%-17.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Bradley's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Bradley's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Bradley.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BradleyMVC26.3826.3611.0211.12-20.57-20.50
Northern IowaMVC4.764.2750.0051.870.000.16
Illinois St.MVC2.804.2752.1747.660.12-0.20
Indiana St.MVC2.764.2754.5552.290.250.20
Wichita St.MVC4.744.2670.0074.541.902.09
Southern IllinoisMVC2.804.2570.8368.651.171.58
EvansvilleMVC2.814.2473.9174.741.342.10
DrakeMVC2.754.2418.1819.37-1.75-2.60
Loyola ChicagoMVC2.704.2445.4543.06-0.25-0.59
Missouri St.MVC4.704.2433.3333.12-1.57-1.43
Ball St.MAC2.191.7666.6761.280.730.40
Seton HallBE2.221.7572.7368.781.010.66
TowsonCAA2.221.7563.6458.320.610.29
ArizonaP122.181.7278.2677.611.230.95
DelawareCAA2.171.7218.1820.58-1.38-1.01
MississippiSEC2.171.7263.6457.650.590.26
North DakotaBSky2.171.7244.4447.97-0.24-0.07
TCUB122.131.7240.9135.13-0.39-0.51
Boise St.MWC2.171.7261.9061.190.520.39
New OrleansSlnd2.131.6923.5331.88-1.13-0.61
UT ArlingtonSB2.081.6765.0069.530.620.65
VirginiaACC2.081.6781.8277.291.330.91
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.220.1913.6415.80-0.16-0.13
North TexasCUSA0.220.1933.3332.99-0.07-0.06
NevadaMWC0.190.1755.0054.530.020.02
TulsaAmer0.230.1765.2261.450.070.04
HofstraCAA0.140.1765.2264.220.040.05
Saint LouisA100.180.1736.3633.47-0.05-0.06
ButlerBE0.140.1769.5767.230.050.06
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.130.175.007.23-0.12-0.15
New MexicoMWC0.180.1760.8763.000.040.04
ToledoMAC0.140.1759.0960.070.030.03
Murray St.OVC0.130.1645.4549.70-0.01-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.210.1552.3847.040.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.190.1450.0055.200.000.01
IUPUISum0.180.1440.0039.79-0.04-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.180.1481.8283.040.120.09
William & MaryCAA0.180.1471.4369.840.080.06
Oklahoma St.B120.180.1447.8344.37-0.01-0.02
George MasonA100.220.1434.7834.15-0.07-0.04
ProvidenceBE0.130.1475.0070.940.070.06
Weber St.BSky0.150.1265.0069.270.050.05
Northwestern St.Slnd0.090.1218.7526.45-0.06-0.06
IowaB100.140.1282.6180.580.090.07
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.090.1231.5831.80-0.03-0.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.140.1163.6460.940.040.03
DrexelCAA0.090.1113.6418.14-0.07-0.07
ElonCAA0.090.1152.1750.420.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.090.1170.8369.500.040.04
NortheasternCAA0.140.1145.8346.66-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.180.1139.1341.12-0.04-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.140.1176.1973.400.070.05
Utah St.MWC0.190.1145.0046.77-0.02-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.090.1145.4546.30-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.090.1143.4842.50-0.01-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.150.1152.6350.220.010.00
USCP120.140.1178.2673.060.080.05
Colorado St.MWC0.130.1152.3850.410.010.00
CreightonBE0.140.1162.5059.780.030.02
DePaulBE0.090.1134.7834.45-0.03-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.1140.9149.27-0.02-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.090.1172.7372.030.040.05
Kansas St.B120.100.1160.8758.470.020.02
VillanovaBE0.180.1186.9686.370.130.08
Mississippi St.SEC0.140.1140.9140.65-0.02-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.130.1161.9059.660.030.02
TroySB0.140.1123.8126.67-0.07-0.05
Iowa St.B120.130.1173.9170.060.060.04
Washington St.P120.170.1136.3632.00-0.05-0.04
MontanaBSky0.100.0957.8962.290.020.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0915.0027.26-0.03-0.04
TulaneAmer0.100.0933.3332.34-0.03-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.150.0910.0013.13-0.12-0.06
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.110.0957.8961.750.020.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.140.0970.5975.550.060.04
AlabamaSEC0.140.0959.0953.030.030.01
UtahP120.090.0969.5767.480.040.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.100.0945.0049.39-0.01-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.090.0940.9143.53-0.02-0.01
Notre DameACC0.090.0969.5765.850.040.03
PepperdineWCC0.090.0956.5257.280.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.090.0872.7371.620.040.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.090.0838.8945.66-0.02-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.090.0882.6178.690.060.05
Air ForceMWC0.090.0845.4538.47-0.01-0.02
PortlandWCC0.090.0840.0038.50-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.040.0852.1755.930.000.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.140.0840.0039.00-0.03-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.140.0857.8956.100.020.01
KentuckySEC0.090.0873.9171.550.040.04
Long Beach St.BW0.130.0845.4551.35-0.010.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.090.0830.4331.18-0.03-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.090.0877.2776.860.050.04
CaliforniaP120.090.0865.2262.880.030.02
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0861.9056.690.020.01
Kent St.MAC0.090.0863.6459.440.020.02
OaklandHorz0.090.0868.0067.970.030.03
TexasB120.140.0869.5762.630.050.02
UTEPCUSA0.090.0852.1751.940.000.00
West VirginiaB120.090.0882.6179.550.060.05
MissouriSEC0.090.0834.7830.36-0.03-0.03
WashingtonP120.130.0865.2261.070.040.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.120.0621.0527.82-0.07-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0652.3854.010.000.01
IdahoBSky0.050.0654.5554.930.000.01
Idaho St.BSky0.110.0645.0046.13-0.01-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0617.6529.24-0.04-0.03
Montana St.BSky0.050.0640.9143.71-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0614.2917.92-0.04-0.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0628.5726.96-0.02-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0675.0071.500.030.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.090.0623.8126.56-0.05-0.03
MassachusettsA100.100.0640.9139.36-0.02-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0621.7422.74-0.03-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.090.0650.0051.910.000.00
MinnesotaB100.090.0626.0927.82-0.04-0.03
San DiegoWCC0.050.0631.8229.14-0.02-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0625.0022.76-0.02-0.03
UMKCWAC0.050.0628.5732.71-0.02-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0665.2266.160.010.02
UTSACUSA0.050.0613.6413.62-0.03-0.04
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0627.7829.14-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0630.4326.50-0.04-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.090.0659.0958.880.020.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.0620.0026.74-0.05-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.090.0620.0019.66-0.05-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.069.5213.52-0.07-0.04
OregonP120.090.0682.6179.210.060.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.040.0630.0035.77-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0626.0929.20-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0690.4886.880.040.04
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0642.8639.19-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.040.0666.6766.540.010.02
BYUWCC0.090.0666.6769.500.030.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0650.0051.170.000.00
ClemsonACC0.050.0660.8760.240.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0636.8441.44-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.090.0678.2674.420.050.03
GeorgetownBE0.050.0654.1752.340.000.00
HawaiiBW0.090.0684.2181.670.060.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0642.8646.34-0.01-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.050.0682.6177.740.030.03
MarquetteBE0.090.0662.5056.260.020.01
MarylandB100.040.0687.5083.690.030.04
Miami FLACC0.050.0681.8276.740.030.03
Miami OHMAC0.050.0631.8230.48-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.040.0616.6720.13-0.03-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.040.0650.0052.350.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0663.1658.790.000.01
OhioMAC0.050.0661.9059.430.010.01
Ohio St.B100.090.0658.3354.160.020.00
RichmondA100.090.0654.5554.490.010.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.040.0682.6178.890.030.03
South AlabamaSB0.050.0633.3334.19-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.050.0626.0923.72-0.02-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.040.0666.6762.620.010.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0638.8938.51-0.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.040.0682.6179.420.030.03
Virginia TechACC0.050.0654.1749.270.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.090.0633.3335.48-0.03-0.02
XavierBE0.050.0691.3084.380.040.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.090.0571.4368.710.040.02
MemphisAmer0.090.0560.8760.770.020.01
Arizona St.P120.040.0554.1751.660.000.00
AuburnSEC0.050.0540.9136.61-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.050.0572.7366.500.020.02
FloridaSEC0.050.0565.2266.090.010.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.040.0521.0523.58-0.02-0.03
KansasB120.090.0581.8277.570.060.03
OklahomaB120.050.0586.3682.100.030.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.040.0517.3920.66-0.03-0.03
StanfordP120.040.0550.0046.610.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.050.0547.8346.88-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.050.0559.0953.120.010.00
UCLAP120.040.0556.5253.240.010.00
DuquesneA100.060.0363.6456.430.020.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0347.6252.07-0.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0356.2556.100.010.00
LamarSlnd0.060.0331.5831.96-0.02-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0363.6462.140.010.01
NorthwesternB100.060.0366.6763.420.020.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.0331.5837.72-0.00-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0342.1145.73-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0315.0015.35-0.04-0.02
WisconsinB100.050.0360.8755.840.010.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0330.4332.35-0.02-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0366.6765.210.020.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0315.0022.36-0.03-0.02
IonaMAAC0.050.0360.8760.730.010.01
La SalleA100.050.0320.0020.45-0.03-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0339.1338.57-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.050.0334.7837.15-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0322.7324.73-0.02-0.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0383.3383.020.030.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0334.7837.07-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.050.0363.6459.840.010.01
UC DavisBW0.050.0340.0036.77-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.050.0324.0026.41-0.02-0.01
AkronMAC0.050.0381.8280.030.030.02
Chicago St.WAC0.050.034.357.73-0.04-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.050.0331.5831.79-0.02-0.01
DukeACC0.000.0373.9170.040.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0352.0050.250.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.050.0369.5764.890.020.01
FordhamA100.050.0355.0052.290.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.050.0352.1751.590.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0315.7920.03-0.03-0.02
LehighPat0.050.0333.3337.25-0.02-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0322.7324.97-0.03-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0350.0049.090.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.050.0376.1968.220.020.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0328.5729.72-0.02-0.01
RutgersB100.050.0321.7420.35-0.03-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0338.1041.93-0.01-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0350.0053.300.000.00
SyracuseACC0.050.0366.6762.560.020.01
WagnerNEC0.050.0363.6465.030.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.050.0343.4840.61-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.050.0345.4546.10-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.000.0369.5765.330.000.01
GonzagaWCC0.040.0378.2676.810.020.01
LSUSEC0.050.0365.2260.270.010.01
Oregon St.P120.040.0361.9056.420.010.00
PacificWCC0.040.0325.0028.89-0.02-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.039.0917.09-0.04-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.050.0356.5256.610.010.00
SMUAmer0.050.0390.9186.130.040.02
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0386.3679.150.030.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0378.2678.050.000.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0356.5260.000.010.01