Bradley

Conference:	MVC
Expected RPI:	265.0
Current RPI:	265
Expected SOS:	91
Current SOS:	91
Current Record:	7-25
Expected Record:	7-25
Current Conf Record:	2-17
Expected Conf Record:	2-17
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	3-4
Current OOC Record:	5-8
Expected OOC Record:	5-8
Expected OOC RPI:	222
Expected OOC SOS:	122

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
7-25	265.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Bradley.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-13	Missouri Kansas City (266.0)	Sum	H	68-58	W	100%
11-16	Southeast Missouri St. (248.0)	OVC	H	66-65	W	100%
11-19	North Dakota (242.0)	GWC	H	78-69	W	100%
11-22	Wofford (178.0)	SC	H	66-70	L	0%
11-25	Wisconsin (23.0)	B10	N	43-66	L	0%
11-26	Nevada (65.0)	WAC	N	64-59	L	0%
12-3	Wyoming (83.0)	MWC	A	66-49	L	0%
12-6	Northeastern (172.0)	CAA	H	79-68	W	100%
12-15	George Washington (188.0)	A10	A	66-67	W	100%
12-17	Drexel (64.0)	CAA	A	73-68	L	0%
12-20	Western Carolina (220.0)	SC	H	67-68	L	0%
12-22	Michigan (14.0)	B10	A	77-66	L	0%
12-28	Wichita St. (12.0)	MVC	H	51-90	L	0%
12-31	Indiana St. (129.0)	MVC	A	77-66	L	0%
1-4	Southern Illinois (255.0)	MVC	H	65-74	L	0%
1-7	Creighton (24.0)	MVC	H	83-92	L	0%
1-10	Drake (133.0)	MVC	A	82-74	L	0%
1-13	Wichita St. (12.0)	MVC	A	78-41	L	0%
1-15	Northern Iowa (73.0)	MVC	H	78-67	W	100%
1-18	Evansville (131.0)	MVC	A	90-67	L	0%
1-21	Missouri St. (123.0)	MVC	H	48-51	L	0%
1-24	Southern Illinois (255.0)	MVC	A	77-60	L	0%
1-28	Creighton (24.0)	MVC	A	73-59	L	0%
2-1	Evansville (131.0)	MVC	H	62-92	L	0%
2-4	Illinois St. (100.0)	MVC	A	78-48	L	0%
2-8	Indiana St. (129.0)	MVC	H	68-60	W	100%
2-12	Missouri St. (123.0)	MVC	A	64-53	L	0%
2-15	Drake (133.0)	MVC	H	55-62	L	0%
2-18	Loyola Chicago (309.0)	Horz	H	44-56	L	0%
2-22	Northern Iowa (73.0)	MVC	A	64-55	L	0%
2-25	Illinois St. (100.0)	MVC	H	53-54	L	0%
3-1	Drake (133.0)	MVC	N	65-49	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Bradley's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Bradley's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Bradley.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Bradley	MVC	26.36	26.36	17.12	17.12	-17.33	-17.33
Drake	MVC	5.54	5.54	46.43	46.43	-0.40	-0.40
Creighton	MVC	4.16	4.16	83.87	83.87	2.82	2.82
Illinois St.	MVC	4.13	4.13	58.06	58.06	0.67	0.67
Indiana St.	MVC	4.08	4.08	55.17	55.17	0.42	0.42
Wichita St.	MVC	4.07	4.07	82.76	82.76	2.67	2.67
Evansville	MVC	4.07	4.07	46.43	46.43	-0.29	-0.29
Missouri St.	MVC	4.05	4.05	44.83	44.83	-0.42	-0.42
Southern Illinois	MVC	4.05	4.05	21.43	21.43	-2.31	-2.31
Northern Iowa	MVC	4.05	4.05	58.62	58.62	0.70	0.70
Western Carolina	SC	1.69	1.69	43.75	43.75	-0.21	-0.21
Wofford	SC	1.68	1.68	55.17	55.17	0.17	0.17
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	1.67	1.67	32.14	32.14	-0.60	-0.60
Northeastern	CAA	1.66	1.66	46.67	46.67	-0.11	-0.11
Wisconsin	B10	1.64	1.64	71.88	71.88	0.72	0.72
Drexel	CAA	1.61	1.61	81.25	81.25	1.01	1.01
Nevada	WAC	1.61	1.61	79.31	79.31	0.95	0.95
North Dakota	GWC	1.59	1.59	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	1.59	1.59	46.43	46.43	-0.11	-0.11
Michigan	B10	1.59	1.59	70.97	70.97	0.67	0.67
George Washington	A10	1.56	1.56	33.33	33.33	-0.52	-0.52
Loyola Chicago	Horz	1.56	1.56	17.86	17.86	-1.00	-1.00
Wyoming	MWC	1.56	1.56	60.71	60.71	0.33	0.33
Chicago St.	GWC	0.28	0.28	10.71	10.71	-0.22	-0.22
Iowa	B10	0.25	0.25	51.52	51.52	0.01	0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.20	0.20	60.61	60.61	0.04	0.04
Western Illinois	Sum	0.19	0.19	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.18	0.18	75.00	75.00	0.09	0.09
Boise St.	MWC	0.18	0.18	41.38	41.38	-0.03	-0.03
Iowa St.	B12	0.17	0.17	68.75	68.75	0.07	0.07
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.17	0.17	82.35	82.35	0.11	0.11
Illinois	B10	0.17	0.17	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.16	0.16	81.25	81.25	0.10	0.10
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.16	0.16	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Butler	Horz	0.16	0.16	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.15	0.15	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.15	0.15	32.00	32.00	-0.06	-0.06
Davidson	SC	0.15	0.15	77.42	77.42	0.08	0.08
Indiana	B10	0.15	0.15	75.76	75.76	0.08	0.08
Tulsa	CUSA	0.15	0.15	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.15	0.15	78.79	78.79	0.08	0.08
Minnesota	B10	0.15	0.15	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Utah Valley	GWC	0.14	0.14	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.13	0.13	37.04	37.04	-0.03	-0.03
Air Force	MWC	0.13	0.13	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.13	0.13	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.13	0.13	72.73	72.73	0.06	0.06
Furman	SC	0.13	0.13	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.13	0.13	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.12	0.12	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
UAB	CUSA	0.12	0.12	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
William & Mary	CAA	0.12	0.12	16.13	16.13	-0.08	-0.08
Towson	CAA	0.12	0.12	3.12	3.12	-0.11	-0.11
Ohio St.	B10	0.12	0.12	79.41	79.41	0.07	0.07
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.12	0.12	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Northwestern	B10	0.12	0.12	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.12	0.12	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Idaho St.	BSky	0.11	0.11	27.59	27.59	-0.05	-0.05
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.11	0.11	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Detroit	Horz	0.11	0.11	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.11	0.11	25.00	25.00	-0.05	-0.05
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.11	0.11	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Texas Christian	MWC	0.11	0.11	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.11	0.11	25.93	25.93	-0.05	-0.05
Colorado St.	MWC	0.10	0.10	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.10	0.10	81.82	81.82	0.07	0.07
Kansas St.	B12	0.10	0.10	67.74	67.74	0.04	0.04
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.10	0.10	23.08	23.08	-0.06	-0.06
Ball St.	MAC	0.10	0.10	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Utah St.	WAC	0.10	0.10	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
San Diego St.	MWC	0.10	0.10	77.42	77.42	0.06	0.06
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.10	0.10	30.77	30.77	-0.04	-0.04
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.10	0.10	10.71	10.71	-0.08	-0.08
St. Mary's	WCC	0.10	0.10	83.33	83.33	0.07	0.07
Appalachian St.	SC	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Fresno St.	WAC	0.10	0.10	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.10	0.10	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
The Citadel	SC	0.10	0.10	14.29	14.29	-0.07	-0.07
Winthrop	BSth	0.10	0.10	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.10	0.10	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.10	0.10	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Georgia St.	CAA	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Hofstra	CAA	0.10	0.10	31.25	31.25	-0.04	-0.04
James Madison	CAA	0.10	0.10	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
NC Greensboro	SC	0.10	0.10	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.10	0.10	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.10	0.10	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Purdue	B10	0.10	0.10	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.09	0.09	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.09	0.09	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.08	0.08	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Longwood	ind	0.08	0.08	22.22	22.22	-0.05	-0.05
South Dakota	Sum	0.08	0.08	28.00	28.00	-0.04	-0.04
Wright St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.08	0.08	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
San Jose St.	WAC	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Arkansas St.	SB	0.08	0.08	39.39	39.39	-0.02	-0.02
Colorado	P12	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
St. Louis	A10	0.08	0.08	77.42	77.42	0.04	0.04
Xavier	A10	0.08	0.08	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.08	0.08	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Georgia Southern	SC	0.08	0.08	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.08	0.08	85.29	85.29	0.05	0.05
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.08	0.08	19.23	19.23	-0.05	-0.05
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.08	0.08	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Temple	A10	0.08	0.08	77.42	77.42	0.04	0.04
Morehead St.	OVC	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Fairfield	MAAC	0.07	0.07	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.07	0.07	6.67	6.67	-0.06	-0.06
Chattanooga	SC	0.07	0.07	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Elon	SC	0.07	0.07	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Samford	SC	0.07	0.07	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	30.77	30.77	-0.02	-0.02
Montana	BSky	0.05	0.05	79.31	79.31	0.03	0.03
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.04	-0.04
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.05	0.05	29.63	29.63	-0.02	-0.02
IUPUI	Sum	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	96.43	96.43	0.05	0.05
Southern Utah	Sum	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.05	0.05	6.90	6.90	-0.05	-0.05
Valparaiso	Horz	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Hawaii	WAC	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Idaho	WAC	0.05	0.05	55.17	55.17	0.01	0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.05	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.05	0.05	67.86	67.86	0.02	0.02
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Providence	BE	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
West Virginia	BE	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.02	0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
George Mason	CAA	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.05	0.05	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Campbell	BSth	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Lipscomb	ASun	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.02	0.02
Rutgers	BE	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas	B12	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Denver	SB	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri	B12	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Oregon	P12	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.03	0.03	34.62	34.62	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UC Irvine	BW	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.03	0.03	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
High Point	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Pacific	BW	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Portland	WCC	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Tulane	CUSA	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
UC Riverside	BW	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Washington	P12	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Boston University	AE	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
California	P12	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.03	0.03	86.21	86.21	0.02	0.02
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Stony Brook	AE	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.03	0.03	93.94	93.94	0.02	0.02
Vermont	AE	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.02	0.02	19.23	19.23	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.02	0.02	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Memphis	CUSA	0.02	0.02	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
UCLA	P12	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Binghamton	AE	0.02	0.02	6.45	6.45	-0.02	-0.02
Colgate	Pat	0.02	0.02	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.02	0.02	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.02	0.02	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.02	0.02	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Presbyterian	BSth	0.02	0.02	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Rider	MAAC	0.02	0.02	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.02	0.02	20.69	20.69	-0.01	-0.01