live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Bradley

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:306.0
Current RPI:306
Expected SOS:120
Current SOS:120
Current Record:4-27
Expected Record:4-27
Current Conf Record:3-16
Expected Conf Record:3-16
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:2-8
Current OOC Record:1-11
Expected OOC Record:1-11
Expected OOC RPI:306
Expected OOC SOS:74



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
4-27306.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Bradley.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Ball St. (179.0)MACH54-53W100%0.0
11-16Arizona (26.0)P12A90-60L0%0.0
11-19Virginia (3.0)ACCN57-82L0%0.0
11-20Seton Hall (19.0)BEN59-67L0%0.0
11-22Towson (150.0)CAAN60-62L0%0.0
11-25New Orleans (343.0)SlndH51-64L0%0.0
11-28Mississippi (96.0)SECH54-67L0%0.0
12-1Delaware (274.0)CAAA70-47L0%0.0
12-5North Dakota (218.0)BSkyH59-65L0%0.0
12-8UT Arlington (105.0)SBA97-61L0%0.0
12-20Boise St. (101.0)MWCA90-70L0%0.0
12-23TCU (174.0)B12H49-53L0%0.0
12-30Northern Iowa (70.0)MVCA80-44L0%0.0
1-3Wichita St. (47.0)MVCH58-85L0%0.0
1-6Southern Illinois (138.0)MVCH44-65L0%0.0
1-9Evansville (93.0)MVCA67-35L0%0.0
1-13Loyola Chicago (239.0)MVCA53-54W100%0.0
1-16Missouri St. (235.0)MVCH42-61L0%0.0
1-20Illinois St. (114.0)MVCH52-55L0%0.0
1-23Wichita St. (47.0)MVCA88-54L0%0.0
1-27Northern Iowa (70.0)MVCH50-68L0%0.0
1-30Drake (325.0)MVCA80-70L0%0.0
2-2Missouri St. (235.0)MVCA77-71L0%0.0
2-6Indiana St. (172.0)MVCH63-58W100%0.0
2-10Loyola Chicago (239.0)MVCH43-54L0%0.0
2-14Illinois St. (114.0)MVCA75-60L0%0.0
2-17Southern Illinois (138.0)MVCA71-59L0%0.0
2-20Drake (325.0)MVCH73-70W100%0.0
2-23Evansville (93.0)MVCH55-67L0%0.0
2-27Indiana St. (172.0)MVCA77-58L0%0.0
3-3Loyola Chicago (239.0)MVCN74-66L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Bradley's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Bradley's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Bradley.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BradleyMVC26.3726.3710.7410.74-20.70-20.70
Loyola ChicagoMVC5.715.7142.8642.86-0.82-0.82
Northern IowaMVC4.284.2861.2961.290.970.97
EvansvilleMVC4.264.2670.9770.971.791.79
Wichita St.MVC4.254.2572.4172.411.901.90
Indiana St.MVC4.224.2244.8344.83-0.44-0.44
Missouri St.MVC4.204.2034.4834.48-1.30-1.30
Illinois St.MVC4.174.1751.7251.720.140.14
Southern IllinoisMVC4.154.1566.6766.671.381.38
DrakeMVC4.154.1517.8617.86-2.67-2.67
Ball St.MAC1.691.6960.0060.000.340.34
TowsonCAA1.691.6958.6258.620.290.29
Seton HallBE1.691.6975.0075.000.850.85
ArizonaP121.671.6775.0075.000.830.83
DelawareCAA1.671.6720.6920.69-0.98-0.98
TCUB121.661.6634.3834.38-0.52-0.52
MississippiSEC1.661.6661.2961.290.380.38
Boise St.MWC1.661.6658.6258.620.290.29
North DakotaBSky1.661.6646.4346.43-0.12-0.12
New OrleansSlnd1.641.6423.0823.08-0.88-0.88
UT ArlingtonSB1.611.6167.7467.740.570.57
VirginiaACC1.611.6178.1278.120.910.91
ToledoMAC0.210.2151.6151.610.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.180.1810.7110.71-0.14-0.14
New MexicoMWC0.180.1853.1253.120.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.180.1811.1111.11-0.14-0.14
North TexasCUSA0.170.1733.3333.33-0.06-0.06
HofstraCAA0.160.1671.8871.880.070.07
NevadaMWC0.160.1656.6756.670.020.02
TulsaAmer0.160.1664.5264.520.050.05
Saint LouisA100.150.1534.3834.38-0.05-0.05
ButlerBE0.150.1567.7467.740.050.05
CreightonBE0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
Murray St.OVC0.150.1551.7251.720.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.140.1443.7543.75-0.02-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.140.1474.1974.190.070.07
College of CharlestonCAA0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.130.1362.0762.070.030.03
UNLVMWC0.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
IUPUISum0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.130.1380.0080.000.080.08
Colorado St.MWC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.130.1337.5037.50-0.03-0.03
George MasonA100.130.1334.3834.38-0.04-0.04
VillanovaBE0.120.1285.2985.290.090.09
ProvidenceBE0.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.110.1120.8320.83-0.06-0.06
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
DrexelCAA0.110.1120.0020.00-0.06-0.06
ElonCAA0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.110.1176.6776.670.060.06
Houston BaptistSlnd0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
San Diego St.MWC0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
Utah St.MWC0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
WyomingMWC0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Notre DameACC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
AlabamaSEC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
USCP120.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
Fresno St.MWC0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
TroySB0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Iowa St.B120.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
North CarolinaACC0.100.1082.3582.350.060.06
Washington St.P120.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
West VirginiaB120.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
TulaneAmer0.080.0835.2935.29-0.02-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0810.7110.71-0.06-0.06
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.080.0882.1482.140.050.05
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.03-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
UTSACUSA0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0829.1729.17-0.03-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0877.4277.420.040.04
UtahP120.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
Kent St.MAC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
OregonP120.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
UC IrvineBW0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Texas St.SB0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.0735.7135.71-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
MissouriSEC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
OaklandHorz0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
TexasB120.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
CaliforniaP120.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Miami FLACC0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
WashingtonP120.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
XavierBE0.070.0784.3884.380.050.05
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0626.9226.92-0.03-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
IdahoBSky0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0627.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
MassachusettsA100.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
UMKCWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
MinnesotaB100.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
OhioMAC0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0564.2964.290.010.01
UABCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
MemphisAmer0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0544.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
BelmontOVC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
BYUWCC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
ClemsonACC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
ColoradoP120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
George WashingtonA100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
KansasB120.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
LouisvilleACC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0522.8622.86-0.03-0.03
OklahomaB120.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
RichmondA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
StanfordP120.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UCLAP120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
DuquesneA100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0356.0056.000.000.00
LamarSlnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
La SalleA100.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
UC DavisBW0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.030.033.453.45-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
FordhamA100.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
LSUSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
ColgatePat0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
LehighPat0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
PacificWCC0.020.0223.0823.08-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
RutgersB100.020.0219.3519.35-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.020.0283.3383.330.020.02
SyracuseACC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
WagnerNEC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01