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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Bradley

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:265.0
Current RPI:265
Expected SOS:182
Current SOS:182
Current Record:12-20
Expected Record:12-20
Current Conf Record:7-12
Expected Conf Record:7-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-4
Current OOC Record:5-8
Expected OOC Record:5-8
Expected OOC RPI:316
Expected OOC SOS:302



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-20265.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Bradley.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Jacksonville St. (317.0)OVCH72-65W100%0.0
11-10Alabama St. (254.0)SWACH85-59W100%0.0
11-12Central Michigan (294.0)MACH80-70W100%0.0
11-15Chicago St. (259.0)WACH77-64W100%0.0
11-17Illinois (70.0)B10A81-55L0%0.0
11-22Arizona St. (44.0)P12A70-58L0%0.0
11-30Texas Pan American (312.0)WACH74-54W100%0.0
12-4IUPUI (322.0)SumH66-72L0%0.0
12-7Milwaukee (131.0)HorzA73-67L0%0.0
12-10IPFW (115.0)SumH61-65L0%0.0
12-20Portland (178.0)WCCN74-53L0%0.0
12-21Pacific (133.0)WCCN71-55L0%0.0
12-28South Florida (232.0)AmerH57-61L0%0.0
1-1Northern Iowa (109.0)MVCA80-46L0%0.0
1-4Drake (174.0)MVCH68-57W100%0.0
1-8Missouri St. (85.0)MVCH65-68L0%0.0
1-11Indiana St. (71.0)MVCA62-59L0%0.0
1-14Wichita St. (4.0)MVCA72-50L0%0.0
1-17Southern Illinois (200.0)MVCH66-60W100%0.0
1-22Northern Iowa (109.0)MVCH69-65W100%0.0
1-26Evansville (214.0)MVCA66-60L0%0.0
1-29Illinois St. (134.0)MVCH64-45W100%0.0
2-1Missouri St. (85.0)MVCA74-61L0%0.0
2-6Loyola Chicago (288.0)MVCA54-63W100%0.0
2-9Evansville (214.0)MVCH83-66W100%0.0
2-12Indiana St. (71.0)MVCH62-68L0%0.0
2-15Illinois St. (134.0)MVCA70-54L0%0.0
2-18Southern Illinois (200.0)MVCA75-64L0%0.0
2-22Loyola Chicago (288.0)MVCH55-38W100%0.0
2-25Wichita St. (4.0)MVCH49-69L0%0.0
3-1Drake (174.0)MVCA71-66L0%0.0
3-6Loyola Chicago (288.0)MVCN72-74L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Bradley's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Bradley's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Bradley.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BradleyMVC26.3726.3730.7730.77-10.14-10.14
Loyola ChicagoMVC5.575.5728.5728.57-2.39-2.39
Indiana St.MVC4.184.1865.5265.521.301.30
Wichita St.MVC4.144.14100.00100.004.144.14
Southern IllinoisMVC4.114.1140.0040.00-0.82-0.82
EvansvilleMVC4.114.1137.9337.93-0.99-0.99
Missouri St.MVC4.084.0858.6258.620.700.70
DrakeMVC4.064.0646.4346.43-0.29-0.29
Illinois St.MVC4.064.0650.0050.000.000.00
Northern IowaMVC4.054.0550.0050.000.000.00
Chicago St.WAC1.791.7937.9337.93-0.43-0.43
IUPUISum1.791.797.147.14-1.54-1.54
MilwaukeeHorz1.721.7259.3859.380.320.32
Jacksonville St.OVC1.691.6928.5728.57-0.73-0.73
IPFWSum1.691.6966.6766.670.560.56
IllinoisB101.671.6756.2556.250.210.21
Alabama St.SWAC1.661.6659.2659.260.310.31
Texas Pan AmericanWAC1.641.6426.6726.67-0.77-0.77
Central MichiganMAC1.621.6228.5728.57-0.69-0.69
PortlandWCC1.621.6246.6746.67-0.11-0.11
PacificWCC1.611.6146.4346.43-0.12-0.12
Arizona St.P121.561.5664.5264.520.450.45
South FloridaAmer1.561.5635.4835.48-0.45-0.45
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.250.2531.0331.03-0.10-0.10
Tennessee TechOVC0.230.2348.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.200.2043.3343.33-0.03-0.03
UICHorz0.200.2013.7913.79-0.14-0.14
PepperdineWCC0.180.1846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.180.1838.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.180.1814.8114.81-0.13-0.13
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.180.1838.7138.71-0.04-0.04
UMKCWAC0.180.1834.4834.48-0.05-0.05
DePaulBE0.170.1736.3636.36-0.05-0.05
Western IllinoisSum0.160.1625.9325.93-0.08-0.08
Saint Mary'sWCC0.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
San FranciscoWCC0.160.1663.3363.330.040.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.160.1648.1548.15-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.160.1638.7138.71-0.04-0.04
BelmontOVC0.150.1571.8871.880.070.07
Utah ValleyWAC0.150.1562.0762.070.040.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.150.1573.5373.530.070.07
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.150.1532.1432.14-0.05-0.05
Tennessee St.OVC0.150.1513.7913.79-0.11-0.11
Northern IllinoisMAC0.150.1545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.150.1510.7110.71-0.12-0.12
San DiegoWCC0.150.1546.6746.67-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.150.1566.6766.670.050.05
TulsaCUSA0.150.1563.6463.640.040.04
IndianaB100.150.1553.1253.120.010.01
Saint LouisA100.150.1580.6580.650.090.09
ValparaisoHorz0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.130.1342.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.130.1378.5778.570.070.07
South Dakota St.Sum0.130.1357.1457.140.020.02
OhioMAC0.130.1366.6766.670.040.04
IdahoWAC0.130.1345.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.130.1359.2659.260.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.110.1170.9770.970.040.04
DenverSum0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.100.1081.8281.820.070.07
South DakotaSum0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
DaytonA100.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
VCUA100.100.1076.4776.470.060.06
TulaneCUSA0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.100.1035.7135.71-0.03-0.03
NorthwesternB100.100.1042.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.100.1046.1546.15-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.100.1082.3582.350.070.07
Portland St.BSky0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
UC DavisBW0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.1042.4242.42-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
OregonP120.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
IowaB100.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
OaklandHorz0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
LouisvilleAmer0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
Oral RobertsSlnd0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.100.1077.7877.780.050.05
Western KentuckySB0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
DetroitHorz0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
Fresno St.MWC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0853.5753.570.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.080.0838.4638.46-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
FordhamA100.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0781.8281.820.050.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0783.8783.870.050.05
HoustonAmer0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
Oregon St.P120.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
SMUAmer0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
RutgersAmer0.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
StetsonASun0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Michigan St.B100.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
AlabamaSEC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
DavidsonSC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
WisconsinB100.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
Wright St.Horz0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0630.3030.30-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Montana St.BSky0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.050.0570.3770.370.020.02
AlbanyAE0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
DrexelCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Iowa St.B120.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
La SalleA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
MarylandACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
AuburnSEC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
ButlerBE0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
MercerASun0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Notre DameACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
XavierBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
ArizonaP120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
CaliforniaP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
ColoradoP120.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
MemphisAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
TempleAmer0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
UNLVMWC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
MichiganB100.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
NebraskaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Penn St.B100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
NevadaMWC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
DuquesneA100.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.030.033.573.57-0.02-0.02
TCUB120.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.020.0216.6716.67-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
Texas TechB120.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
UCLAP120.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
UMBCAE0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
USCP120.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Washington St.P120.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00