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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Bradley

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:288.0
Current RPI:288
Expected SOS:127
Current SOS:127
Current Record:8-24
Expected Record:8-24
Current Conf Record:4-16
Expected Conf Record:4-16
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-6
Current OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC RPI:297
Expected OOC SOS:230



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-24288.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Bradley.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14UT Arlington (184.0)SBH75-86L0%0.0
11-19Robert Morris (171.0)NECH61-68L0%0.0
11-23North Carolina A&T (340.0)MEACH58-50W100%0.0
11-25Texas A&M Corpus Chris (209.0)SlndH52-38W100%0.0
11-28TCU (131.0)B12N49-57L0%0.0
11-29Saint Louis (272.0)A10N60-57L0%0.0
12-2Central Michigan (70.0)MACH84-73W100%0.0
12-6Memphis (83.0)AmerA73-45L0%0.0
12-9Kansas St. (100.0)B12A50-47L0%0.0
12-21UC Irvine (88.0)BWN47-55L0%0.0
12-22Arkansas Little Rock (276.0)SBN54-64L0%0.0
12-28Illinois Chicago (297.0)HorzH68-60W100%0.0
12-31Loyola Chicago (123.0)MVCA64-49L0%0.0
1-3Southern Illinois (278.0)MVCH63-44W100%0.0
1-7Wichita St. (17.0)MVCA63-43L0%0.0
1-10Evansville (118.0)MVCH56-66L0%0.0
1-13Northern Iowa (14.0)MVCH52-63L0%0.0
1-17Illinois St. (62.0)MVCA82-72L0%0.0
1-21Southern Illinois (278.0)MVCA70-59L0%0.0
1-24Missouri St. (246.0)MVCH61-59W100%0.0
1-28Drake (269.0)MVCH57-69L0%0.0
1-31Indiana St. (190.0)MVCA64-58L0%0.0
2-4Wichita St. (17.0)MVCH59-62L0%0.0
2-7Evansville (118.0)MVCA53-56W100%0.0
2-11Drake (269.0)MVCA60-54L0%0.0
2-15Loyola Chicago (123.0)MVCH53-58L0%0.0
2-18Illinois St. (62.0)MVCH47-60L0%0.0
2-21Northern Iowa (14.0)MVCA56-39L0%0.0
2-25Missouri St. (246.0)MVCA80-77L0%0.0
2-28Indiana St. (190.0)MVCH52-60L0%0.0
3-5Drake (269.0)MVCN50-52W100%0.0
3-6Northern Iowa (14.0)MVCN71-46L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Bradley's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Bradley's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Bradley.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BradleyMVC26.4726.4720.2720.27-15.74-15.74
Northern IowaMVC5.665.6690.0090.004.534.53
DrakeMVC5.555.5522.2222.22-3.08-3.08
Illinois St.MVC4.224.2260.0060.000.840.84
Southern IllinoisMVC4.204.2033.3333.33-1.40-1.40
Wichita St.MVC4.194.1986.2186.213.033.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC4.184.1853.5753.570.300.30
Indiana St.MVC4.144.1442.8642.86-0.59-0.59
Missouri St.MVC4.114.1129.6329.63-1.67-1.67
EvansvilleMVC4.084.0860.7160.710.880.88
Saint LouisA101.771.7730.0030.00-0.71-0.71
Arkansas Little RockSB1.671.6737.9337.93-0.40-0.40
MemphisAmer1.661.6654.8454.840.160.16
Illinois ChicagoHorz1.661.6625.8125.81-0.80-0.80
UT ArlingtonSB1.641.6448.2848.28-0.06-0.06
TCUB121.641.6453.1253.120.100.10
Kansas St.B121.631.6345.1645.16-0.16-0.16
UC IrvineBW1.591.5960.0060.000.320.32
North Carolina A&TMEAC1.591.5924.1424.14-0.82-0.82
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd1.591.5958.6258.620.270.27
Central MichiganMAC1.561.5674.0774.070.750.75
Robert MorrisNEC1.561.5656.2556.250.200.20
Green BayHorz0.250.2573.3373.330.120.12
Murray St.OVC0.230.2383.3383.330.150.15
Kent St.MAC0.210.2164.5264.520.060.06
Texas TechB120.200.2040.6240.62-0.04-0.04
IUPUISum0.180.1832.2632.26-0.06-0.06
TulsaAmer0.180.1870.9770.970.080.08
Iowa St.B120.170.1775.7675.760.090.09
VCUA100.170.1774.2974.290.080.08
DePaulBE0.150.1537.5037.50-0.04-0.04
New OrleansSlnd0.150.1530.7730.77-0.06-0.06
Youngstown St.Horz0.150.1527.5927.59-0.07-0.07
North DakotaBSky0.150.1521.4321.43-0.09-0.09
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.150.1586.6786.670.110.11
Western MichiganMAC0.130.1358.0658.060.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
Oral RobertsSum0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.130.1334.3834.38-0.04-0.04
South AlabamaSB0.130.1332.2632.26-0.05-0.05
Texas St.SB0.130.1339.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.130.1358.6258.620.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.130.1383.3383.330.080.08
HawaiiBW0.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
Wright St.Horz0.130.1331.0331.03-0.05-0.05
NorthwesternB100.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.120.1222.5822.58-0.07-0.07
TexasB120.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
George MasonA100.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
Tennessee St.OVC0.120.1210.3410.34-0.10-0.10
BaylorB120.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
Oklahoma St.B120.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
KansasB120.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
Eastern MichiganMAC0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.110.1120.6920.69-0.06-0.06
OhioMAC0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
ToledoMAC0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Appalachian St.SB0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.100.1035.7135.71-0.03-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.100.1067.8667.860.040.04
Georgia St.SB0.100.1071.8871.880.050.05
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
TroySB0.100.1029.6329.63-0.04-0.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.100.1022.5822.58-0.06-0.06
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.100.1038.4638.46-0.02-0.02
UTSACUSA0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.100.1021.4321.43-0.06-0.06
TulaneAmer0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
DetroitHorz0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
RichmondA100.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.100.1067.7467.740.030.03
OklahomaB120.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
West VirginiaB120.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
Miami OHMAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
PortlandWCC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0872.4172.410.040.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0840.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0875.8675.860.040.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Southern UtahBSky0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0818.7518.75-0.05-0.05
RadfordBSth0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
George WashingtonA100.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
UC RiversideBW0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0777.4277.420.040.04
Weber St.BSky0.070.0739.2939.29-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.070.0781.2581.250.050.05
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0757.1457.140.010.01
UCFAmer0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
YaleIvy0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
BryantNEC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
IowaB100.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
North FloridaASun0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
WagnerNEC0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0562.9662.960.010.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
BrownIvy0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.056.906.90-0.04-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.056.906.90-0.04-0.04
IllinoisB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0558.3358.330.010.01
IonaMAAC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Michigan St.B100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
UC DavisBW0.050.0579.3179.310.030.03
UtahP120.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
ArizonaP120.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
UABCUSA0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.03-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
AkronMAC0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.030.0310.0010.00-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
LamarSlnd0.030.0342.3142.31-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0355.5655.560.000.00
Ohio St.B100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
FordhamA100.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
MassachusettsA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
OregonP120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
PacificWCC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
VermontAE0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.020.0293.9493.940.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
PurdueB100.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0264.7164.710.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
ClemsonACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
DelawareCAA0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.020.000.00-0.02-0.02
LafayettePat0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
MississippiSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.020.0268.5768.570.010.01