live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Nov 27, 2014.


Bradley

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:247.4
Current RPI:314
Expected SOS:110
Current SOS:302
Current Record:2-2
Expected Record:9-19
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-4
Current OOC Record:2-2
Expected OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC RPI:293
Expected OOC SOS:195



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-12110.20.05%
15-13129.80.20%
14-14146.70.65%
13-15167.22.29%
12-16186.05.00%
11-17205.510.66%
10-18226.317.36%
9-19246.319.75%
8-20265.018.55%
7-21280.813.44%
6-22295.88.06%
5-23308.32.95%
4-24318.30.84%
3-25323.90.17%
2-26338.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Bradley.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14UT Arlington (162.0)SBH75-86L0%0.0
11-19Robert Morris (232.1)NECH61-68L0%0.0
11-23North Carolina A&T (319.2)MEACH58-50W100%0.0
11-25Texas A&M Corpus Chris (229.2)SlndH52-38W100%0.0
11-28TCU (125.0)B12A0-09%-15.8
12-2Central Michigan (161.4)MACH0-045%-1.4
12-6Memphis (89.3)AmerA0-010%-15.3
12-9Kansas St. (106.3)B12A0-010%-15.4
12-21UC Irvine (99.2)BWN0-017%-11.3
12-28Illinois Chicago (287.2)HorzH0-064%4.2
12-31Loyola Chicago (208.8)MVCA0-032%-5.7
1-3Southern Illinois (188.0)MVCH0-048%-0.7
1-7Wichita St. (19.6)MVCA0-03%-23.1
1-10Evansville (74.1)MVCH0-025%-8.3
1-13Northern Iowa (38.0)MVCH0-016%-12.1
1-17Illinois St. (77.1)MVCA0-09%-15.8
1-21Southern Illinois (188.0)MVCA0-026%-7.9
1-24Missouri St. (155.8)MVCH0-042%-2.5
1-28Drake (269.3)MVCH0-069%5.9
1-31Indiana St. (203.3)MVCA0-031%-5.9
2-4Wichita St. (19.6)MVCH0-09%-15.9
2-7Evansville (74.1)MVCA0-010%-15.4
2-11Drake (269.3)MVCA0-046%-1.3
2-15Loyola Chicago (208.8)MVCH0-055%1.5
2-18Illinois St. (77.1)MVCH0-024%-8.6
2-21Northern Iowa (38.0)MVCA0-05%-19.3
2-25Missouri St. (155.8)MVCA0-021%-9.7
2-28Indiana St. (203.3)MVCH0-054%1.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Bradley's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Bradley's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Bradley.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BradleyMVC30.9426.4430.0027.40-12.38-11.95
Southern IllinoisMVC0.004.6240.0046.84-0.00-0.29
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.004.6050.0040.890.00-0.84
Wichita St.MVC0.004.60100.0082.310.002.97
Northern IowaMVC0.004.58100.0077.040.002.48
DrakeMVC0.004.5825.0022.52-0.00-2.52
EvansvilleMVC0.004.5875.0067.990.001.65
Illinois St.MVC0.004.5850.0063.060.001.20
Indiana St.MVC0.004.5860.0039.120.00-1.00
Missouri St.MVC0.004.5733.3346.57-0.00-0.31
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.001.9120.0031.29-0.00-0.72
MemphisAmer0.001.8533.3359.40-0.000.35
Kansas St.B120.001.8550.0044.660.00-0.20
TCUB120.001.84100.0057.270.000.27
UT ArlingtonSB12.501.8250.0051.460.000.05
UC IrvineBW0.001.8233.3365.56-0.000.57
Central MichiganMAC0.001.79100.0055.390.000.19
North Carolina A&TMEAC12.501.790.0029.64-12.50-0.73
Robert MorrisNEC12.501.7920.0046.03-7.50-0.14
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd12.501.7950.0054.310.000.15
Saint LouisA103.650.2575.0046.861.82-0.02
Texas TechB120.000.2575.0045.180.00-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.2433.3367.57-0.000.09
Kent St.MAC0.000.2275.0066.230.000.07
TulsaAmer0.000.1960.0055.660.000.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.1950.0040.660.00-0.03
IUPUISum0.000.1940.0030.22-0.00-0.07
Green BayHorz0.000.1875.0078.500.000.11
Iowa St.B120.000.1875.0061.130.000.04
Oral RobertsSum0.000.1640.0038.51-0.00-0.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.1625.0068.20-0.000.06
New OrleansSlnd0.000.160.0035.74-0.00-0.04
DePaulBE0.000.1566.6725.500.00-0.08
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.150.0025.08-0.00-0.07
BaylorB120.000.15100.0075.130.000.07
Oklahoma St.B120.000.15100.0060.400.000.03
TexasB120.000.15100.0079.050.000.09
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.13100.0052.530.000.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.1333.3346.51-0.00-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.130.0030.50-0.00-0.05
OhioMAC0.000.1366.6752.280.000.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.1350.0048.100.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.130.0035.88-0.00-0.04
BuffaloMAC1.250.1375.0064.570.620.04
UTSACUSA0.000.1333.3330.52-0.00-0.05
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.1366.6751.540.000.00
DetroitHorz0.000.1360.0059.160.000.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1320.0043.38-0.00-0.02
Seton HallBE0.000.13100.0063.120.000.03
TulaneAmer0.000.1366.6739.850.00-0.03
DenverSum0.000.1350.0060.380.000.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1325.0043.27-0.00-0.02
NorthwesternB100.000.1283.3338.760.00-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.1216.6739.60-0.00-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.000.1220.0039.02-0.00-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1275.0056.110.000.02
Wright St.Horz0.000.1250.0048.990.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.1233.3351.25-0.000.00
VCUA100.000.1280.0073.390.000.06
KansasB120.000.1275.0062.620.000.03
OklahomaB120.000.1280.0070.540.000.05
West VirginiaB120.000.12100.0068.860.000.04
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.1040.0037.90-0.00-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.1033.3337.74-0.00-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1050.0025.280.00-0.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1050.0070.920.000.04
ToledoMAC0.000.1040.0060.45-0.000.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.100.0047.66-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd1.250.100.0023.72-1.25-0.05
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.10100.0059.990.000.02
Grand CanyonWAC1.250.1040.0046.34-0.25-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.1040.0026.71-0.00-0.04
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0940.0054.55-0.000.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.090.0016.54-0.00-0.06
Fresno St.MWC0.000.090.0023.13-0.00-0.05
USC UpstateASun1.560.0975.0057.260.780.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.090.0033.42-0.00-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.090.0028.02-0.00-0.04
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0980.0074.880.000.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0940.0033.19-0.00-0.03
UMKCWAC0.000.0920.0042.43-0.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0950.0065.590.000.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0966.6741.200.00-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.000.0925.0052.78-0.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.0966.6741.780.00-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB1.040.0925.0043.61-0.52-0.01
YaleIvy0.000.0980.0070.930.000.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0750.0047.680.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.0780.0058.550.000.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0733.3334.34-0.00-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.000.07100.0069.610.000.03
HawaiiBW0.000.0771.4356.020.000.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.07100.0052.770.000.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0780.0074.350.000.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0750.0065.020.000.02
UC DavisBW0.000.07100.0052.620.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.070.0023.83-0.00-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0733.3364.43-0.000.02
UtahP120.000.0775.0073.700.000.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0620.0031.24-0.00-0.02
BrownIvy0.000.0616.6730.56-0.00-0.02
ButlerBE0.000.0680.0071.410.000.03
IllinoisB100.000.06100.0067.700.000.02
IonaMAAC0.000.0680.0079.440.000.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.060.0067.79-0.000.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0019.02-0.00-0.04
GeorgetownBE3.120.0680.0063.371.880.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0015.46-0.00-0.04
ArizonaP120.000.06100.0076.220.000.03
RadfordBSth0.000.0625.0046.52-0.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.060.0063.05-0.000.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0650.0028.400.00-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.000.060.0036.05-0.00-0.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0680.0075.550.000.03
CincinnatiAmer0.000.06100.0062.000.000.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0625.0049.53-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0675.0069.780.000.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0625.0035.86-0.00-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0650.0051.380.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0660.0068.290.000.02
HoustonAmer0.000.0666.6760.700.000.01
IPFWSum0.000.0666.6762.480.000.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0625.0052.42-0.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0620.0034.53-0.00-0.02
OaklandHorz0.000.0616.6726.26-0.00-0.03
PortlandWCC0.000.06100.0051.100.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0650.0059.430.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0040.20-0.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0666.6748.060.00-0.00
TroySB0.000.060.0044.27-0.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.0620.0037.96-0.00-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0660.0055.000.000.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0625.0026.73-0.00-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.060.0040.56-0.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.0633.3346.36-0.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.060.0030.72-0.00-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0018.96-0.00-0.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0633.3338.66-0.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0620.0022.17-0.00-0.03
IowaB100.000.0666.6765.220.000.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.060.0044.60-0.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0625.0036.14-0.00-0.02
North FloridaASun0.000.0640.0051.36-0.000.00
RichmondA100.000.0650.0063.970.000.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0625.0033.76-0.00-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0633.3354.85-0.000.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.060.0052.73-0.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0625.0045.71-0.00-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0660.0035.980.00-0.02
WagnerNEC0.000.060.0044.93-0.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0360.0066.680.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0316.6732.00-0.00-0.01
MaineAE0.000.030.0019.84-0.00-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.030.0022.17-0.00-0.02
LamarSlnd0.000.0325.0036.27-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.030.0030.59-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.030.0050.53-0.000.00
OregonP120.000.0360.0063.290.000.01
PacificWCC0.000.0333.3332.18-0.00-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0350.0045.170.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0071.260.000.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0320.0035.95-0.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0320.0038.45-0.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0360.0067.380.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0325.0039.20-0.00-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0316.6745.35-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.000.0325.0045.04-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0314.2930.86-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0325.0047.85-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun1.560.0325.0039.34-0.78-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.03100.0074.590.000.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0350.0052.250.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0036.81-0.00-0.01
DaytonA100.000.0375.0071.300.000.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.03100.0088.610.000.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0325.0031.20-0.00-0.01
KentuckySEC1.250.03100.0089.471.250.02
Montana St.BSky0.000.030.0020.51-0.00-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0375.0055.470.000.00
TempleAmer0.000.0360.0050.480.000.00
ChattanoogaSC1.040.0340.0054.85-0.210.00
ClemsonACC0.000.0360.0050.620.000.00
DelawareCAA0.000.030.0019.53-0.00-0.02
DuquesneA100.000.03100.0053.990.000.00
FurmanSC0.000.0325.0027.48-0.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.0020.98-0.00-0.02
LafayettePat1.040.0360.0061.400.210.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0375.0053.040.000.00
North CarolinaACC1.040.0380.0074.090.620.01
Washington St.P120.000.0325.0022.65-0.00-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0360.0056.890.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0350.0050.720.000.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0360.0057.910.000.00
PurdueB100.000.0383.3368.400.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0366.6746.480.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0375.0068.660.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0041.21-0.00-0.01