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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.

Bradley

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:190.0
Current RPI:190
Expected SOS:177
Current SOS:177
Current Record:16-16
Expected Record:16-16
Current Conf Record:7-12
Expected Conf Record:7-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-2
Current OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:214
Expected OOC SOS:339


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-16190.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Bradley.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Eastern Illinois (276.0)OVCH76-53W100%0.0
11-12Texas Pan American (306.0)GWCH78-61W100%0.0
11-17IUPUI (326.0)SumA72-79W100%0.0
11-20South Florida (156.0)BEA82-63L0%0.0
11-24Tennessee Martin (312.0)OVCH80-57W100%0.0
11-28Central Michigan (268.0)MACA65-82W100%0.0
12-1Michigan (20.0)B10H66-74L0%0.0
12-4George Washington (147.0)A10H72-68W100%0.0
12-17Georgia Southern (266.0)SCH62-43W100%0.0
12-19Mississippi Valley St. (344.0)SWACH77-42W100%0.0
12-22Virginia Tech (177.0)ACCN66-65L0%0.0
12-23Portland (231.0)WCCN57-55L0%0.0
12-29Drake (143.0)MVCH67-57W100%0.0
1-2Southern Illinois (192.0)MVCA60-66W100%0.0
1-6Wichita St. (37.0)MVCH63-69L0%0.0
1-9Indiana St. (74.0)MVCA68-53L0%0.0
1-12Northern Iowa (83.0)MVCA84-53L0%0.0
1-15Southern Illinois (192.0)MVCH69-66W100%0.0
1-19Missouri St. (203.0)MVCH69-66W100%0.0
1-23Evansville (106.0)MVCA66-56L0%0.0
1-26Wichita St. (37.0)MVCA73-39L0%0.0
1-29Illinois St. (117.0)MVCH83-77W100%0.0
2-2Creighton (25.0)MVCA75-58L0%0.0
2-5Evansville (106.0)MVCH76-70W100%0.0
2-10Northern Iowa (83.0)MVCH65-68L0%0.0
2-13Illinois St. (117.0)MVCA79-59L0%0.0
2-16Indiana St. (74.0)MVCH80-68W100%0.0
2-20Drake (143.0)MVCA92-84L0%0.0
2-23Illinois Chicago (169.0)HorzA62-63W100%0.0
2-27Creighton (25.0)MVCH62-80L0%0.0
3-2Missouri St. (203.0)MVCA64-56L0%0.0
3-7Drake (143.0)MVCN66-81L0%0.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Bradley's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Bradley's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Bradley.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.


Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BradleyMVC26.3526.3547.7647.76-1.18-1.18
DrakeMVC5.545.5442.8642.86-0.79-0.79
CreightonMVC4.144.1478.1278.122.332.33
Wichita St.MVC4.114.1175.0075.002.062.06
Indiana St.MVC4.084.0855.1755.170.420.42
Illinois St.MVC4.064.0654.8454.840.390.39
Missouri St.MVC4.064.0627.5927.59-1.82-1.82
EvansvilleMVC4.014.0155.1755.170.420.42
Northern IowaMVC4.014.0151.7251.720.140.14
Southern IllinoisMVC4.014.0146.4346.43-0.29-0.29
Eastern IllinoisOVC1.721.7236.6736.67-0.46-0.46
IUPUISum1.641.6413.7913.79-1.19-1.19
Virginia TechACC1.621.6238.7138.71-0.36-0.36
Georgia SouthernSC1.611.6140.0040.00-0.32-0.32
MichiganB101.611.6177.4277.420.890.89
Texas Pan AmericanGWC1.611.6144.4444.44-0.18-0.18
Tennessee MartinOVC1.611.6125.9325.93-0.78-0.78
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC1.611.6118.5218.52-1.02-1.02
PortlandWCC1.591.5927.5927.59-0.71-0.71
Central MichiganMAC1.591.5934.4834.48-0.49-0.49
George WashingtonA101.561.5644.8344.83-0.16-0.16
Illinois ChicagoHorz1.561.5653.3353.330.100.10
South FloridaBE1.561.5636.6736.67-0.42-0.42
St. Mary'sWCC0.220.2281.2581.250.140.14
Eastern MichiganMAC0.210.2141.9441.94-0.03-0.03
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.200.2053.1253.120.010.01
IowaB100.200.2063.6463.640.050.05
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.190.1928.0028.00-0.08-0.08
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.180.1845.1645.16-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.170.1760.0060.000.030.03
New Orleansind0.160.1618.1818.18-0.10-0.10
Alabama A&MSWAC0.160.1631.0331.03-0.06-0.06
Murray St.OVC0.160.1665.5265.520.050.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.160.1648.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.150.1526.6726.67-0.07-0.07
Austin PeayOVC0.150.1520.6920.69-0.09-0.09
ToledoMAC0.150.1553.5753.570.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.150.1571.4371.430.070.07
ValparaisoHorz0.150.1578.1278.120.090.09
Wright St.Horz0.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
NorthwesternB100.150.1540.6240.62-0.03-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
LouisvilleBE0.150.1585.2985.290.100.10
TulsaCUSA0.140.1451.6151.610.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.130.1329.0329.03-0.06-0.06
Morehead St.OVC0.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
St. LouisA100.130.1381.8281.820.080.08
Ball St.MAC0.130.1348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.130.1348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.130.1320.0020.00-0.08-0.08
Colorado St.MWC0.130.1374.1974.190.060.06
CaliforniaP120.120.1264.5264.520.040.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.120.1267.8667.860.040.04
UABCUSA0.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.GWC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.100.1037.0437.04-0.03-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.100.1037.5037.50-0.03-0.03
ButlerA100.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
Northern IllinoisMAC0.100.1013.7913.79-0.07-0.07
New MexicoMWC0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
Notre DameBE0.100.1073.5373.530.050.05
XavierA100.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
MarylandACC0.100.1064.7164.710.030.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
Utah St.WAC0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
Miami FLACC0.100.1081.8281.820.060.06
NebraskaB100.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.090.0967.6567.650.030.03
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.080.0838.4638.46-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Utah ValleyGWC0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiBE0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Houston BaptistGWC0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
MemphisCUSA0.080.0888.2488.240.060.06
MississippiSEC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.080.0831.2531.25-0.03-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
Western KentuckySB0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
CharlotteA100.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
VirginiaACC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Brigham YoungWCC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.080.0872.7372.730.030.03
DavidsonSC0.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
George MasonCAA0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
IonaMAAC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Iowa St.B120.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.080.0813.7913.79-0.05-0.05
WoffordSC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SC0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.070.0719.3519.35-0.05-0.05
DaytonA100.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
Penn St.B100.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
AkronMAC0.070.0780.6580.650.040.04
North TexasSB0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Virginia CommonwealthA100.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
DePaulBE0.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0628.1228.12-0.02-0.02
GramblingSWAC0.060.060.000.00-0.06-0.06
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.060.0648.0048.00-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
Texas ArlingtonWAC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
LamarSlnd0.050.059.689.68-0.04-0.04
Texas St.WAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0557.6957.690.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0510.0010.00-0.04-0.04
SamfordSC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.050.0593.7593.750.050.05
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
La SalleA100.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
MassachusettsA100.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
OaklandSum0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
South DakotaSum0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
UC DavisBW0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
RutgersBE0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Virginia Military InstBSth0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Central FloridaCUSA0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
College of CharlestonSC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
ConnecticutBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
DenverWAC0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
FurmanSC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
High PointBSth0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
North DakotaBSky0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSlnd0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Seton HallBE0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Southern MethodistCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
UCLAP120.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
VillanovaBE0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
WinthropBSth0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
NC GreensboroSC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
PittsburghBE0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
ClemsonACC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
Georgia TechACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
IllinoisB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
IndianaB100.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Michigan St.B100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Ohio St.B100.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
PurdueB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
WyomingMWC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Arizona St.P120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0565.5265.520.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
Southern MississippiCUSA0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
HoustonCUSA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
LipscombASun0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Louisiana St.SEC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Texas ChristianB120.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
TulaneCUSA0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Boston UniversityAE0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
DuquesneA100.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.030.0323.0823.08-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
TempleA100.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
UtahP120.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
ElonSC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Georgia St.CAA0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.037.147.14-0.02-0.02
MercerASun0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
St. John'sBE0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
StetsonASun0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
SyracuseBE0.030.0374.2974.290.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.020.026.906.90-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.ASun0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
MinnesotaB100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01