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Through games of Nov 22, 2014.


Bradley

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:274.1
Current RPI:320
Expected SOS:125
Current SOS:267
Current Record:0-2
Expected Record:8-20
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-5
Current OOC Record:0-2
Expected OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC RPI:325
Expected OOC SOS:205



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-12140.00.01%
15-13153.10.10%
14-14156.10.32%
13-15181.30.97%
12-16203.12.76%
11-17219.55.87%
10-18239.910.83%
9-19257.515.47%
8-20275.018.88%
7-21289.418.18%
6-22304.114.10%
5-23315.07.43%
4-24323.53.85%
3-25331.90.95%
2-26336.40.25%
1-27342.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Bradley.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14UT Arlington (144.6)SBH75-86L0%0.0
11-19Robert Morris (256.8)NECH61-68L0%0.0
11-23North Carolina A&T (324.5)MEACH0-081%10.6
11-25Texas A&M Corpus Chris (230.5)SlndH0-055%1.5
11-28TCU (157.5)B12A0-012%-14.0
12-2Central Michigan (211.7)MACH0-053%0.9
12-6Memphis (58.2)AmerA0-06%-18.9
12-9Kansas St. (89.4)B12A0-07%-17.8
12-21UC Irvine (117.3)BWN0-020%-10.1
12-28Illinois Chicago (270.5)HorzH0-057%2.0
12-31Loyola Chicago (238.8)MVCA0-031%-5.9
1-3Southern Illinois (180.9)MVCH0-041%-2.6
1-7Wichita St. (16.8)MVCA0-02%-24.4
1-10Evansville (102.1)MVCH0-029%-6.8
1-13Northern Iowa (55.9)MVCH0-019%-10.7
1-17Illinois St. (141.4)MVCA0-016%-11.9
1-21Southern Illinois (180.9)MVCA0-021%-9.8
1-24Missouri St. (146.0)MVCH0-036%-4.3
1-28Drake (273.9)MVCH0-064%4.3
1-31Indiana St. (158.5)MVCA0-019%-10.7
2-4Wichita St. (16.8)MVCH0-08%-17.2
2-7Evansville (102.1)MVCA0-012%-14.0
2-11Drake (273.9)MVCA0-040%-2.9
2-15Loyola Chicago (238.8)MVCH0-054%1.3
2-18Illinois St. (141.4)MVCH0-035%-4.7
2-21Northern Iowa (55.9)MVCA0-07%-17.9
2-25Missouri St. (146.0)MVCA0-017%-11.5
2-28Indiana St. (158.5)MVCH0-038%-3.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Bradley's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Bradley's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Bradley.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BradleyMVC31.2526.470.0023.97-31.25-13.78
Southern IllinoisMVC0.004.6425.0048.59-0.00-0.13
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.004.620.0037.11-0.00-1.19
Wichita St.MVC0.004.62100.0084.290.003.17
DrakeMVC0.004.600.0023.40-0.00-2.45
Northern IowaMVC0.004.60100.0071.310.001.96
Indiana St.MVC0.004.6066.6750.530.000.05
EvansvilleMVC0.004.59100.0062.270.001.13
Illinois St.MVC0.004.5950.0051.180.000.11
Missouri St.MVC0.004.5950.0050.130.000.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.001.9125.0035.37-0.00-0.56
MemphisAmer0.001.850.0065.24-0.000.56
TCUB120.001.85100.0053.400.000.13
Kansas St.B120.001.8566.6752.860.000.11
UT ArlingtonSB25.001.8266.6755.528.330.20
UC IrvineBW0.001.8250.0062.420.000.45
Central MichiganMAC0.001.79100.0045.970.00-0.14
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.001.790.0024.37-0.00-0.92
Robert MorrisNEC25.001.790.0039.83-25.00-0.36
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.001.790.0050.98-0.000.04
Saint LouisA100.000.25100.0065.140.000.08
Murray St.OVC0.000.2550.0071.840.000.11
Texas TechB120.000.2566.6746.900.00-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.22100.0070.980.000.09
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.1925.0035.61-0.00-0.06
TulsaAmer0.000.1966.6753.050.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.1950.0031.810.00-0.07
Iowa St.B120.000.18100.0061.830.000.04
Oral RobertsSum0.000.1633.3349.42-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.160.0067.09-0.000.05
DePaulBE0.000.16100.0037.850.00-0.04
New OrleansSlnd0.000.160.0033.75-0.00-0.05
BaylorB120.000.15100.0069.300.000.06
Oklahoma St.B120.000.15100.0052.590.000.01
TexasB120.000.15100.0081.740.000.10
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.150.0028.50-0.00-0.06
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.14100.0049.250.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.000.1450.0056.270.000.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.140.0036.36-0.00-0.04
BuffaloMAC3.120.1366.6760.611.040.03
Western MichiganMAC0.000.13100.0054.710.000.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.130.0028.76-0.00-0.06
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.130.0033.25-0.00-0.04
UTSACUSA0.000.1350.0037.430.00-0.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.1350.0053.000.000.01
DenverSum0.000.1350.0061.440.000.03
DetroitHorz0.000.1333.3354.50-0.000.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1333.3336.99-0.00-0.03
TulaneAmer0.000.1350.0035.040.00-0.04
VCUA100.000.13100.0073.570.000.06
Wright St.Horz0.000.1366.6758.650.000.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.130.0040.40-0.00-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1333.3341.92-0.00-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.120.0031.23-0.00-0.05
Green BayHorz0.000.120.0067.49-0.000.04
North DakotaBSky0.000.120.0044.01-0.00-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1266.6754.020.000.01
KansasB120.000.1250.0061.790.000.03
OklahomaB120.000.1250.0058.120.000.02
West VirginiaB120.000.12100.0067.570.000.04
ToledoMAC0.000.1033.3364.19-0.000.03
Miami OHMAC0.000.1066.6734.100.00-0.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.1033.3335.92-0.00-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.1050.0044.170.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.100.0033.08-0.00-0.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1033.3327.10-0.00-0.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1025.0066.02-0.000.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.100.0044.91-0.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.100.0033.68-0.00-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.10100.0061.500.000.02
Grand CanyonWAC3.120.1050.0049.760.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd3.120.100.0025.73-3.12-0.05
Long Beach St.BW0.000.1033.3353.79-0.000.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.100.0019.17-0.00-0.06
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1050.0033.700.00-0.03
Weber St.BSky0.000.100.0048.20-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.100.0033.98-0.00-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0950.0041.720.00-0.02
UMKCWAC0.000.0933.3355.40-0.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.09100.0051.050.000.00
SMUAmer0.000.0950.0068.880.000.03
UCFAmer0.000.09100.0046.730.00-0.01
YaleIvy0.000.0966.6762.540.000.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.07100.0045.990.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.07100.0042.120.00-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.07100.0058.780.000.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.070.0063.44-0.000.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0766.6773.760.000.03
Cal PolyBW0.000.0750.0037.760.00-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.000.07100.0062.400.000.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.07100.0052.260.000.00
IPFWSum0.000.0750.0063.720.000.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0766.6771.600.000.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0766.6767.990.000.02
Seton HallBE0.000.07100.0056.980.000.01
UABCUSA0.000.070.0043.18-0.00-0.01
UC DavisBW0.000.07100.0042.650.00-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.070.0028.19-0.00-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.070.0055.87-0.000.01
UtahP120.000.0766.6769.700.000.03
Utah St.MWC0.000.0775.0057.480.000.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0775.0054.790.000.01
GeorgetownBE3.120.06100.0062.073.120.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.060.0037.13-0.00-0.02
BrownIvy0.000.0625.0037.31-0.00-0.02
ButlerBE0.000.06100.0061.850.000.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0018.27-0.00-0.04
IllinoisB100.000.06100.0067.100.000.02
IonaMAAC0.000.0666.6766.670.000.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.060.0072.02-0.000.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0018.48-0.00-0.04
RadfordBSth0.000.0633.3348.73-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0633.3321.74-0.00-0.03
BryantNEC0.000.0650.0054.900.000.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.060.0035.36-0.00-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.06100.0063.820.000.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0633.3346.93-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.06100.0076.190.000.03
East CarolinaAmer0.000.060.0033.55-0.00-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0650.0038.370.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0625.0019.94-0.00-0.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.060.0046.56-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.060.0057.63-0.000.01
HoustonAmer0.000.06100.0065.060.000.02
IowaB100.000.0650.0065.570.000.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.060.0043.84-0.00-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.060.0047.90-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0650.0062.580.000.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.060.0033.14-0.00-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0633.3336.55-0.00-0.02
North FloridaASun0.000.060.0047.13-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.000.060.0032.48-0.00-0.02
PortlandWCC0.000.06100.0051.660.000.00
RichmondA100.000.0666.6767.450.000.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0650.0037.890.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0039.36-0.00-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0633.3349.33-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.060.0056.24-0.000.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0633.3343.68-0.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0666.6748.850.00-0.00
TroySB0.000.060.0045.18-0.00-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0666.6733.180.00-0.02
WagnerNEC0.000.060.0045.12-0.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0633.3332.78-0.00-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.060.0042.47-0.00-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.060.0039.15-0.00-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0025.43-0.00-0.03
AkronMAC0.000.0466.6763.730.000.01
MaineAE0.000.040.0018.23-0.00-0.02
ArizonaP120.000.03100.0069.320.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.030.0019.92-0.00-0.02
LamarSlnd0.000.030.0034.03-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.030.0034.81-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.030.0053.00-0.000.00
OregonP120.000.03100.0071.440.000.01
PacificWCC0.000.0350.0029.910.00-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0350.0046.250.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0071.830.000.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.030.0034.07-0.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.030.0031.63-0.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.03100.0070.030.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0333.3344.56-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0325.0051.56-0.000.00
HowardMEAC0.000.030.0035.51-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0320.0027.80-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0333.3345.85-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0333.3340.99-0.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.03100.0071.340.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.03100.0080.090.000.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0350.0054.290.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0032.69-0.00-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.030.0046.61-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.000.0350.0051.120.000.00
DaytonA100.000.0366.6769.640.000.01
DelawareCAA0.000.030.0029.55-0.00-0.01
DuquesneA100.000.03100.0052.610.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0366.6758.190.000.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.03100.0087.190.000.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.030.0031.61-0.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0085.630.000.02
LafayettePat3.120.0375.0064.271.560.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.030.0023.51-0.00-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0366.6746.620.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC3.120.03100.0073.293.120.01
PurdueB100.000.03100.0060.550.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.03100.0046.040.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.000.0350.0053.100.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0042.680.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0366.6765.320.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0037.22-0.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.000.0333.3325.18-0.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.0025.50-0.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0366.6755.980.000.00
Washington St.P120.000.0333.3327.58-0.00-0.01