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Through games of Dec 19, 2014.


Bradley

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:268.7
Current RPI:276
Expected SOS:148
Current SOS:195
Current Record:3-6
Expected Record:9-20
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-6
Current OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC RPI:317
Expected OOC SOS:308



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-12138.00.01%
16-13146.70.03%
15-14165.50.26%
14-15184.21.25%
13-16204.73.74%
12-17224.68.61%
11-18244.313.92%
10-19263.220.75%
9-20279.820.83%
8-21293.716.22%
7-22305.59.74%
6-23314.03.57%
5-24321.40.93%
4-25328.00.12%
3-26330.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Bradley.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14UT Arlington (139.5)SBH75-86L0%0.0
11-19Robert Morris (270.7)NECH61-68L0%0.0
11-23North Carolina A&T (332.2)MEACH58-50W100%0.0
11-25Texas A&M Corpus Chris (318.8)SlndH52-38W100%0.0
11-28TCU (66.4)B12N49-57L0%0.0
11-29Saint Louis (270.0)A10N60-57L0%0.0
12-2Central Michigan (92.4)MACH84-73W100%0.0
12-6Memphis (85.3)AmerA73-45L0%0.0
12-9Kansas St. (133.5)B12A50-47L0%0.0
12-21UC Irvine (200.7)BWN0-033%-5.3
12-28Illinois Chicago (308.4)HorzH0-074%7.5
12-31Loyola Chicago (117.2)MVCA0-014%-12.6
1-3Southern Illinois (232.0)MVCH0-055%1.6
1-7Wichita St. (17.7)MVCA0-02%-23.7
1-10Evansville (75.7)MVCH0-026%-7.5
1-13Northern Iowa (35.8)MVCH0-019%-10.5
1-17Illinois St. (70.2)MVCA0-09%-15.6
1-21Southern Illinois (232.0)MVCA0-027%-7.2
1-24Missouri St. (192.1)MVCH0-053%1.0
1-28Drake (285.7)MVCH0-075%7.7
1-31Indiana St. (250.9)MVCA0-036%-4.2
2-4Wichita St. (17.7)MVCH0-010%-15.0
2-7Evansville (75.7)MVCA0-08%-16.2
2-11Drake (285.7)MVCA0-047%-1.0
2-15Loyola Chicago (117.2)MVCH0-037%-3.9
2-18Illinois St. (70.2)MVCH0-028%-6.9
2-21Northern Iowa (35.8)MVCA0-05%-19.2
2-25Missouri St. (192.1)MVCA0-026%-7.7
2-28Indiana St. (250.9)MVCH0-065%4.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Bradley's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Bradley's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Bradley.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BradleyMVC27.7026.4123.0827.68-14.92-11.79
Southern IllinoisMVC0.284.4854.5543.630.03-0.57
Indiana St.MVC0.594.4733.3331.82-0.20-1.63
Wichita St.MVC0.594.4687.5084.870.443.11
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.004.4375.0058.770.000.78
Northern IowaMVC0.004.4290.0077.750.002.45
DrakeMVC0.004.4120.0018.84-0.00-2.75
EvansvilleMVC0.004.4177.7870.310.001.79
Illinois St.MVC0.004.4166.6763.500.001.19
Missouri St.MVC0.004.4137.5038.82-0.00-0.99
Saint LouisA106.131.9755.5631.620.68-0.72
MemphisAmer5.561.8550.0058.910.000.33
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.001.8518.1820.85-0.00-1.08
Kansas St.B125.561.7855.5635.060.62-0.53
TCUB125.561.78100.0065.825.560.56
UT ArlingtonSB5.561.7650.0053.910.000.14
UC IrvineBW0.311.7537.5046.10-0.08-0.14
North Carolina A&TMEAC5.831.750.0025.21-5.83-0.87
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd5.831.7528.5729.65-2.50-0.71
Central MichiganMAC5.561.72100.0073.185.560.80
Robert MorrisNEC5.561.7222.2237.50-3.09-0.43
Texas TechB120.000.2490.0055.490.000.03
Murray St.OVC0.000.2455.5661.910.000.06
Kent St.MAC0.230.2175.0059.530.120.04
TulsaAmer0.000.1860.0056.900.000.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.670.1845.4543.81-0.06-0.02
Green BayHorz0.000.1875.0077.200.000.10
IUPUISum0.000.1820.0027.11-0.00-0.08
VCUA100.000.1770.0071.450.000.07
Iowa St.B120.000.1788.8963.400.000.05
Oral RobertsSum0.000.1544.4445.51-0.00-0.01
DePaulBE0.000.1560.0034.020.00-0.05
New OrleansSlnd0.280.1520.0046.54-0.17-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.310.1566.6777.530.100.08
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.140.0015.18-0.00-0.10
TexasB120.310.1490.0081.650.250.09
BaylorB120.310.1490.0073.800.250.07
Oklahoma St.B120.310.1488.8963.880.240.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.1371.4363.270.000.03
Ball St.MAC0.000.1328.5737.33-0.00-0.03
OhioMAC0.000.1342.8637.74-0.00-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.000.1362.5055.010.000.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.1316.6719.31-0.00-0.08
BuffaloMAC0.590.1277.7870.500.330.05
DetroitHorz0.000.1244.4448.82-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1216.6744.58-0.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.000.1290.0067.320.000.04
UTSACUSA0.350.1242.8637.71-0.05-0.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.1242.8638.37-0.00-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.1233.3339.29-0.00-0.03
NorthwesternB100.400.1260.0040.370.08-0.02
TulaneAmer0.000.1288.8955.090.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.670.120.0023.36-0.67-0.06
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.1218.1836.00-0.00-0.03
DenverSum0.690.1245.4554.26-0.060.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1244.4446.81-0.00-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1280.0070.970.000.05
Wright St.Horz0.000.1260.0057.640.000.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.1222.2230.55-0.00-0.05
North DakotaBSky0.000.1225.0032.93-0.00-0.04
George MasonA100.000.1125.0026.38-0.00-0.05
KansasB120.000.1188.8969.210.000.04
OklahomaB120.000.1177.7867.320.000.04
West VirginiaB120.000.1190.0067.450.000.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1025.0023.09-0.00-0.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1036.3665.17-0.000.03
ToledoMAC0.280.1060.0058.890.060.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0936.3638.89-0.00-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0920.0027.89-0.00-0.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0975.0067.160.000.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.710.0936.3644.80-0.19-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0930.0028.56-0.00-0.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.280.0925.0048.53-0.14-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.280.0940.0050.17-0.060.00
Southern UtahBSky0.280.0914.2929.35-0.20-0.04
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0930.0029.59-0.00-0.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.310.0920.0039.24-0.19-0.02
Washington St.P120.280.0940.0028.84-0.06-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.090.0014.67-0.00-0.06
Old DominionCUSA0.230.0990.0081.790.190.06
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0962.5067.130.000.03
Weber St.BSky0.310.0928.5742.44-0.13-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.860.0910.0018.50-0.69-0.06
RadfordBSth0.860.0955.5659.230.100.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.280.0933.3345.26-0.09-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.310.0944.4469.77-0.030.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.280.0918.1827.79-0.18-0.04
UMKCWAC0.280.0922.2242.00-0.15-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.770.0960.0064.800.150.03
DaytonA100.000.0977.7869.970.000.03
YaleIvy0.000.0972.7366.650.000.03
DuquesneA100.280.0928.5731.22-0.12-0.03
RichmondA100.000.0955.5657.270.000.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.280.0966.6755.450.090.01
SMUAmer0.000.0970.0071.300.000.04
UCFAmer0.000.0955.5634.700.00-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0742.8633.87-0.00-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.0666.6754.650.000.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0642.8638.86-0.00-0.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0666.6754.760.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0672.7373.190.000.03
UC DavisBW0.000.0685.7161.910.000.02
UC RiversideBW0.000.0642.8642.92-0.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0637.5064.18-0.000.02
UtahP120.000.0677.7879.680.000.04
Colorado St.MWC0.000.06100.0078.490.000.04
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0675.0074.680.000.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0073.610.000.03
ArizonaP120.280.06100.0082.300.280.04
GeorgetownBE0.620.0666.6759.590.210.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0633.3363.11-0.000.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0637.5034.46-0.00-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0633.3345.98-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.000.0660.0061.960.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0618.1831.71-0.00-0.02
BrownIvy0.000.0640.0033.52-0.00-0.02
ButlerBE0.000.0680.0072.370.000.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0633.3349.72-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0012.00-0.00-0.05
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0666.6762.500.000.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0662.5071.350.000.03
IllinoisB100.000.0672.7365.120.000.02
IonaMAAC0.000.0666.6772.800.000.03
IPFWSum0.000.0657.1456.380.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0642.8652.90-0.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0633.3334.61-0.00-0.02
OaklandHorz0.000.0630.0031.32-0.00-0.02
PortlandWCC0.000.0666.6748.270.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0650.0053.240.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0035.39-0.00-0.02
Texas St.SB0.000.0650.0050.060.000.00
TroySB0.000.0633.3339.50-0.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.0630.0036.94-0.00-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.000.0660.0052.190.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0637.5031.81-0.00-0.02
BryantNEC0.000.0628.5746.99-0.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0622.2230.49-0.00-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0011.34-0.00-0.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0628.5741.46-0.00-0.01
IowaB100.000.0672.7362.430.000.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0633.3344.60-0.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0637.5038.31-0.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0650.0057.210.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0662.5073.430.000.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0650.0058.380.000.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0622.2240.60-0.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0650.0062.120.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0655.5638.620.00-0.01
WagnerNEC0.000.0614.2933.57-0.00-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.560.0650.0039.610.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0677.7868.980.000.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0650.0057.700.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0637.5038.43-0.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0671.4347.640.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.590.060.0039.69-0.59-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0360.0056.170.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.400.0318.1838.45-0.25-0.01
MaineAE0.400.0311.1121.27-0.31-0.02
OregonP120.000.0366.6757.860.000.01
PacificWCC0.000.0350.0038.110.00-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0342.8642.46-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0362.5057.080.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.030.0017.19-0.00-0.02
LamarSlnd0.000.0314.2933.59-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.030.0018.32-0.00-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.030.0036.84-0.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0320.0045.49-0.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.039.0929.87-0.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0360.0063.510.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0340.0046.66-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0345.4550.81-0.000.00
HowardMEAC0.230.0330.0043.48-0.09-0.00
KentuckySEC0.310.03100.0095.110.310.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.230.0338.4644.31-0.05-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.310.0322.2228.76-0.17-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0354.5559.120.000.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.230.0333.3343.01-0.08-0.00
Ohio St.B100.230.0390.0084.460.190.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0366.6766.120.000.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0320.0029.91-0.00-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.280.0340.0049.77-0.06-0.00
ClemsonACC0.000.0360.0044.120.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.000.0387.5076.810.000.02
DelawareCAA0.000.030.007.43-0.00-0.02
FordhamA100.000.0328.5728.06-0.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0366.6766.380.000.01
La SalleA100.000.0350.0049.930.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.280.0375.0070.210.140.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0360.0055.280.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.280.0370.0072.100.110.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0355.5640.440.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0375.0065.210.000.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.280.0333.3341.24-0.09-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0375.0060.310.000.01
VermontAE0.000.0344.4457.69-0.000.00
FurmanSC0.280.0322.2231.52-0.15-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0362.5059.500.000.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.0390.0090.870.000.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.009.00-0.00-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0355.5637.870.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.280.0370.0052.530.110.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.280.0344.4455.60-0.030.00
PittsburghACC0.280.0366.6752.850.090.00
PurdueB100.280.0372.7363.770.130.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0344.4444.86-0.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.000.0363.6455.560.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.280.0355.5645.620.03-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0377.7865.880.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0311.1144.75-0.00-0.00