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Through games of Mar 1, 2015.


Bradley

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:296.2
Current RPI:296
Expected SOS:122
Current SOS:123
Current Record:7-23
Expected Record:7-23
Current Conf Record:3-15
Expected Conf Record:3-15
Probability of Auto Bid:0.08%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-6
Current OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC RPI:297
Expected OOC SOS:227



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
7-23296.2100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Bradley.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14UT Arlington (160.1)SBH75-86L0%0.0
11-19Robert Morris (192.5)NECH61-68L0%0.0
11-23North Carolina A&T (338.6)MEACH58-50W100%0.0
11-25Texas A&M Corpus Chris (215.1)SlndH52-38W100%0.0
11-28TCU (121.5)B12N49-57L0%0.0
11-29Saint Louis (254.6)A10N60-57L0%0.0
12-2Central Michigan (77.1)MACH84-73W100%0.0
12-6Memphis (85.7)AmerA73-45L0%0.0
12-9Kansas St. (83.1)B12A50-47L0%0.0
12-21UC Irvine (102.0)BWN47-55L0%0.0
12-22Arkansas Little Rock (261.6)SBN54-64L0%0.0
12-28Illinois Chicago (307.5)HorzH68-60W100%0.0
12-31Loyola Chicago (127.9)MVCA64-49L0%0.0
1-3Southern Illinois (285.6)MVCH63-44W100%0.0
1-7Wichita St. (11.3)MVCA63-43L0%0.0
1-10Evansville (108.5)MVCH56-66L0%0.0
1-13Northern Iowa (14.5)MVCH52-63L0%0.0
1-17Illinois St. (77.1)MVCA82-72L0%0.0
1-21Southern Illinois (285.6)MVCA70-59L0%0.0
1-24Missouri St. (230.1)MVCH61-59W100%0.0
1-28Drake (247.7)MVCH57-69L0%0.0
1-31Indiana St. (175.9)MVCA64-58L0%0.0
2-4Wichita St. (11.3)MVCH59-62L0%0.0
2-7Evansville (108.5)MVCA53-56W100%0.0
2-11Drake (247.7)MVCA60-54L0%0.0
2-15Loyola Chicago (127.9)MVCH53-58L0%0.0
2-18Illinois St. (77.1)MVCH47-60L0%0.0
2-21Northern Iowa (14.5)MVCA56-39L0%0.0
2-25Missouri St. (230.1)MVCA80-77L0%0.0
2-28Indiana St. (175.9)MVCH52-60L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Bradley's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Bradley's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Bradley.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BradleyMVC26.4026.3818.1218.12-16.83-16.82
Southern IllinoisMVC4.324.3132.1432.14-1.54-1.54
Indiana St.MVC4.314.3144.4444.44-0.48-0.48
Wichita St.MVC4.314.3188.8988.893.353.35
Loyola ChicagoMVC4.284.2853.8553.850.330.33
Missouri St.MVC4.284.2830.7730.77-1.65-1.65
Northern IowaMVC4.264.2689.2989.293.343.34
DrakeMVC4.254.2522.2222.22-2.36-2.36
EvansvilleMVC4.254.2562.9662.961.101.10
Illinois St.MVC4.254.2559.2659.260.790.79
Saint LouisA101.901.9033.3332.30-0.63-0.67
Arkansas Little RockSB1.791.7840.7439.97-0.33-0.36
Illinois ChicagoHorz1.781.7821.4321.43-1.02-1.02
MemphisAmer1.781.7857.1455.380.250.19
UT ArlingtonSB1.761.7553.8553.450.140.12
Kansas St.B121.721.7248.2847.11-0.06-0.10
TCUB121.721.7257.1455.720.250.20
UC IrvineBW1.701.7056.0056.820.200.23
North Carolina A&TMEAC1.701.6923.0823.48-0.91-0.90
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd1.701.6956.0058.050.200.27
Central MichiganMAC1.671.6778.2676.720.940.89
Robert MorrisNEC1.671.6751.7251.720.060.06
Kent St.MAC0.240.2364.2962.980.070.06
Green BayHorz0.230.2375.0075.000.120.12
Murray St.OVC0.230.2385.7185.710.160.16
Texas TechB120.230.2343.3342.03-0.03-0.04
TulsaAmer0.200.2077.7875.110.110.10
Youngstown St.Horz0.180.1728.5728.57-0.08-0.07
IUPUISum0.170.1733.3333.33-0.06-0.06
VCUA100.170.1772.4172.030.080.07
Iowa St.B120.140.1671.4370.550.060.07
Oral RobertsSum0.150.1553.5753.570.010.01
DePaulBE0.140.1440.0039.60-0.03-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.150.1460.0059.390.030.03
New OrleansSlnd0.150.1428.5731.49-0.06-0.05
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.150.1484.0084.150.100.10
Tennessee St.OVC0.140.1410.3410.34-0.11-0.11
TexasB120.120.1458.6259.340.020.03
BaylorB120.140.1375.0074.800.070.07
Oklahoma St.B120.110.1359.2658.590.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.130.1252.0052.010.010.00
Ball St.MAC0.130.1223.0824.74-0.07-0.06
OhioMAC0.130.1233.3333.19-0.04-0.04
Western MichiganMAC0.090.1259.2658.300.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.130.1267.8668.880.050.05
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.090.1224.0023.51-0.05-0.06
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.130.1224.1423.76-0.07-0.06
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.120.1251.8551.850.000.00
HawaiiBW0.120.1260.7160.840.030.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.120.1235.7138.37-0.03-0.03
NorthwesternB100.120.1248.2847.38-0.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.120.1244.0045.85-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
DenverSum0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.120.1240.7440.74-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.090.1137.0437.19-0.02-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.120.1138.4639.08-0.03-0.03
DetroitHorz0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.090.1170.8368.830.040.04
Georgia St.SB0.120.1167.8668.250.040.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.090.1153.8555.410.010.01
Seton HallBE0.110.1157.1455.580.020.01
South AlabamaSB0.120.1125.9327.36-0.06-0.05
Texas St.SB0.120.1141.6741.69-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.120.1130.7731.17-0.05-0.04
ValparaisoHorz0.110.1182.1482.140.070.07
Wright St.Horz0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.120.1124.1423.70-0.06-0.06
TulaneAmer0.120.1148.1548.96-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.120.1139.2940.08-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.110.1121.4321.43-0.06-0.06
North DakotaBSky0.110.1123.0823.78-0.06-0.06
George MasonA100.120.1129.6328.88-0.05-0.05
KansasB120.110.1179.3177.530.070.06
OklahomaB120.110.1171.4370.330.050.04
West VirginiaB120.110.1175.8674.180.060.05
ToledoMAC0.060.0965.5264.240.020.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.0973.0871.340.040.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.090.0950.0050.330.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.090.0939.2939.43-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0925.9325.34-0.03-0.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.100.0934.7838.23-0.03-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0933.3334.09-0.02-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.090.0944.4443.81-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.090.0924.1424.14-0.05-0.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.090.0962.9664.230.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.090.0942.8645.00-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.090.0930.7731.72-0.03-0.03
Washington St.P120.090.0942.8641.46-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.0922.2222.90-0.05-0.05
Old DominionCUSA0.090.0978.5779.260.050.05
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.0959.2659.260.020.02
Weber St.BSky0.090.0940.0040.15-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.090.0917.2420.21-0.06-0.05
RadfordBSth0.090.0964.2964.290.030.02
George WashingtonA100.090.0962.0762.640.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0876.0077.450.030.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.0826.9227.66-0.04-0.04
USC UpstateASun0.090.0862.9662.960.020.02
DaytonA100.090.0878.5777.420.050.05
YaleIvy0.080.0870.3768.760.030.03
DuquesneA100.090.0834.6233.88-0.03-0.03
RichmondA100.060.0858.6259.650.010.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.090.0867.8667.860.030.03
SMUAmer0.090.0878.5778.530.050.05
UCFAmer0.090.0840.7440.68-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0642.3142.97-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.060.0674.0775.600.030.03
Cal PolyBW0.060.0644.0043.24-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0682.1481.280.040.04
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0661.9061.010.020.01
Michigan St.B100.060.0665.5265.360.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0675.0074.360.030.03
UC DavisBW0.030.0680.0079.420.020.04
UC RiversideBW0.060.0646.1544.71-0.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0653.8554.380.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.067.697.75-0.05-0.05
GeorgetownBE0.060.0666.6765.970.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.060.0657.1456.280.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0663.6464.230.020.02
BelmontOVC0.060.0664.2964.290.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0629.6331.52-0.01-0.02
BrownIvy0.060.0640.7438.93-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.060.0672.4171.600.030.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.063.574.56-0.06-0.05
IllinoisB100.060.0662.0761.980.010.01
IonaMAAC0.060.0677.4277.420.030.03
IPFWSum0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.060.0653.5754.380.000.01
UtahP120.060.0677.7878.800.030.03
Utah St.MWC0.060.0662.9661.630.010.01
ArizonaP120.060.0689.6689.930.050.05
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0624.0024.00-0.03-0.03
BryantNEC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.060.0616.1316.13-0.04-0.04
Chicago St.WAC0.060.0618.5217.91-0.03-0.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
IowaB100.060.0665.5265.610.020.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
North FloridaASun0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.060.0673.0872.290.030.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.060.0634.4834.77-0.02-0.02
WagnerNEC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0539.2939.32-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0568.9768.270.010.02
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0560.7160.300.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0540.7440.42-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.060.0535.7136.34-0.02-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0540.7442.96-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.030.0360.7160.050.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0333.3334.53-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.030.0310.3410.34-0.03-0.03
LamarSlnd0.030.0345.8344.51-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0318.1820.75-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0354.5554.790.000.00
OregonP120.030.0372.4171.800.010.01
PacificWCC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0368.0066.540.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0371.4371.430.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0329.6331.53-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.030.0372.4172.410.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0337.0437.86-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0344.8346.86-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0340.7442.15-0.01-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0344.4444.03-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0346.1546.10-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.030.03100.0099.560.030.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0356.6757.710.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.030.0321.4321.47-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0359.2659.120.010.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0372.4172.010.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0348.1548.35-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0328.5728.64-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0357.1455.070.000.00
DavidsonA100.030.0376.9276.700.020.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.030.0330.7731.67-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.030.0351.7251.500.000.00
LafayettePat0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
MassachusettsA100.030.0358.6257.160.010.00
North CarolinaACC0.030.0368.9768.760.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0342.8641.90-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0355.5656.790.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0324.0024.53-0.02-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0357.1457.450.000.00
VermontAE0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
FurmanSC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0367.8666.170.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0393.3393.330.020.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.030.001.25-0.03-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0365.5264.790.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0337.0437.66-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0362.0761.400.010.01
PurdueB100.030.0365.5264.180.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0325.0026.97-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.030.0368.9768.620.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0350.0048.870.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0371.4369.990.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0357.1459.490.000.01