Southern

Conference:	SWAC
Expected RPI:	315.0
Current RPI:	315
Expected SOS:	348
Current SOS:	348
Current Record:	13-18
Expected Record:	13-18
Current Conf Record:	11-9
Expected Conf Record:	11-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	13-10
Current OOC Record:	2-9
Expected OOC Record:	2-9
Expected OOC RPI:	297
Expected OOC SOS:	178

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
13-18	315.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southern.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Illinois (181.0)	B10	A	102-55	L	0%
11-13	Marshall (87.0)	CUSA	A	83-74	L	0%
11-15	Missouri St. (136.0)	MVC	A	86-58	L	0%
11-17	Duke (7.0)	ACC	A	78-61	L	0%
11-19	North Carolina Central (279.0)	MEAC	A	80-67	L	0%
11-22	Tennessee Martin (306.0)	OVC	H	69-66	W	100%
12-6	Tulane (175.0)	Amer	A	95-76	L	0%
12-9	UCF (84.0)	Amer	A	76-60	L	0%
12-10	Iowa (157.0)	B10	A	91-60	L	0%
12-14	Florida A&M (332.0)	MEAC	H	68-50	W	100%
12-20	Baylor (68.0)	B12	A	80-60	L	0%
1-1	Texas Southern (222.0)	SWAC	A	78-66	L	0%
1-3	Prairie View A&M (247.0)	SWAC	A	78-74	L	0%
1-6	Grambling St. (249.0)	SWAC	H	80-69	W	100%
1-8	Jackson St. (330.0)	SWAC	H	61-65	L	0%
1-13	Arkansas Pine Bluff (307.0)	SWAC	A	78-76	L	0%
1-15	Mississippi Valley St. (349.0)	SWAC	A	70-78	W	100%
1-20	Alabama St. (333.0)	SWAC	H	63-61	W	100%
1-22	Alabama A&M (350.0)	SWAC	H	62-61	W	100%
1-27	Alcorn St. (348.0)	SWAC	H	61-48	W	100%
2-3	Grambling St. (249.0)	SWAC	A	69-68	L	0%
2-5	Jackson St. (330.0)	SWAC	A	62-67	W	100%
2-10	Arkansas Pine Bluff (307.0)	SWAC	H	70-62	W	100%
2-12	Mississippi Valley St. (349.0)	SWAC	H	55-51	W	100%
2-17	Alabama St. (333.0)	SWAC	A	67-71	W	100%
2-19	Alabama A&M (350.0)	SWAC	A	50-60	W	100%
2-24	Alcorn St. (348.0)	SWAC	A	89-85	L	0%
3-1	Texas Southern (222.0)	SWAC	H	88-90	L	0%
3-3	Prairie View A&M (247.0)	SWAC	H	69-77	L	0%
3-6	Jackson St. (330.0)	SWAC	H	62-60	W	100%
3-9	Arkansas Pine Bluff (307.0)	SWAC	N	71-65	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Southern's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Southern's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Southern.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Southern	SWAC	26.45	26.45	44.72	44.72	-2.80	-2.80
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	5.85	5.85	37.50	37.50	-1.46	-1.46
Jackson St.	SWAC	5.70	5.70	33.33	33.33	-1.90	-1.90
Texas Southern	SWAC	4.35	4.35	40.62	40.62	-0.82	-0.82
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	4.26	4.26	41.94	41.94	-0.69	-0.69
Alcorn St.	SWAC	4.24	4.24	23.08	23.08	-2.28	-2.28
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	4.22	4.22	13.33	13.33	-3.09	-3.09
Alabama St.	SWAC	4.22	4.22	27.59	27.59	-1.89	-1.89
Grambling St.	SWAC	4.17	4.17	53.57	53.57	0.30	0.30
Alabama A&M	SWAC	4.15	4.15	10.34	10.34	-3.29	-3.29
Iowa	B10	1.77	1.77	40.62	40.62	-0.33	-0.33
Tennessee Martin	OVC	1.76	1.76	28.57	28.57	-0.75	-0.75
Illinois	B10	1.74	1.74	40.00	40.00	-0.35	-0.35
Baylor	B12	1.72	1.72	53.33	53.33	0.11	0.11
North Carolina Central	MEAC	1.72	1.72	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Tulane	Amer	1.70	1.70	43.33	43.33	-0.23	-0.23
Marshall	CUSA	1.69	1.69	68.75	68.75	0.63	0.63
Florida A&M	MEAC	1.64	1.64	25.00	25.00	-0.82	-0.82
UCF	Amer	1.64	1.64	58.06	58.06	0.26	0.26
Duke	ACC	1.61	1.61	78.12	78.12	0.91	0.91
Missouri St.	MVC	1.61	1.61	51.61	51.61	0.05	0.05
Cincinnati	Amer	0.20	0.20	88.24	88.24	0.15	0.15
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.18	0.18	65.62	65.62	0.06	0.06
UAB	CUSA	0.18	0.18	58.06	58.06	0.03	0.03
SMU	Amer	0.17	0.17	51.52	51.52	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.16	0.16	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.16	0.16	16.67	16.67	-0.10	-0.10
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.16	0.16	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
East Carolina	Amer	0.16	0.16	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.16	0.16	63.33	63.33	0.04	0.04
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.15	0.15	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.15	0.15	66.67	66.67	0.05	0.05
Michigan	B10	0.15	0.15	79.41	79.41	0.09	0.09
Houston	Amer	0.15	0.15	78.79	78.79	0.09	0.09
UNLV	MWC	0.15	0.15	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Oregon	P12	0.15	0.15	64.71	64.71	0.04	0.04
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.13	0.13	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.13	0.13	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.13	0.13	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Maryland	B10	0.13	0.13	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Mercer	SC	0.13	0.13	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.13	0.13	31.03	31.03	-0.05	-0.05
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.13	0.13	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Temple	Amer	0.13	0.13	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Georgia St.	SB	0.13	0.13	68.75	68.75	0.05	0.05
Minnesota	B10	0.13	0.13	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.13	0.13	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Tulsa	Amer	0.13	0.13	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Howard	MEAC	0.13	0.13	25.81	25.81	-0.06	-0.06
Indiana	B10	0.13	0.13	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.13	0.13	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.12	0.12	75.00	75.00	0.06	0.06
Hawaii	BW	0.12	0.12	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.11	0.11	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.11	0.11	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.11	0.11	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Chattanooga	SC	0.10	0.10	25.81	25.81	-0.05	-0.05
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
West Virginia	B12	0.10	0.10	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Akron	MAC	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.10	0.10	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.10	0.10	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	Amer	0.10	0.10	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.10	0.10	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Samford	SC	0.10	0.10	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
South Florida	Amer	0.10	0.10	31.25	31.25	-0.04	-0.04
Wichita St.	Amer	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Nebraska	B10	0.10	0.10	68.75	68.75	0.04	0.04
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.10	0.10	80.00	80.00	0.06	0.06
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	6.67	6.67	-0.09	-0.09
Michigan St.	B10	0.10	0.10	87.88	87.88	0.08	0.08
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.10	0.10	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Texas	B12	0.10	0.10	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Evansville	MVC	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.10	0.10	84.38	84.38	0.07	0.07
Kansas	B12	0.10	0.10	79.41	79.41	0.06	0.06
TCU	B12	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
North Carolina	ACC	0.10	0.10	71.43	71.43	0.04	0.04
Utah	P12	0.10	0.10	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.10	0.10	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
BYU	WCC	0.10	0.10	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
LSU	SEC	0.09	0.09	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Creighton	BE	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.08	0.08	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Morehead St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	22.22	22.22	-0.04	-0.04
Murray St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	82.76	82.76	0.05	0.05
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
North Texas	CUSA	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.08	0.08	73.33	73.33	0.04	0.04
DePaul	BE	0.08	0.08	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.08	0.08	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	15.62	15.62	-0.05	-0.05
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Rutgers	B10	0.08	0.08	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Connecticut	Amer	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Valparaiso	MVC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.07	0.07	83.33	83.33	0.05	0.05
Penn St.	B10	0.07	0.07	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.07	0.07	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Drake	MVC	0.07	0.07	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.07	0.07	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.07	0.07	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Syracuse	ACC	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.07	0.07	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Fresno St.	MWC	0.07	0.07	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
North Dakota	BSky	0.07	0.07	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Pacific	WCC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.07	0.07	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Texas St.	SB	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Troy	SB	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.07	0.07	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Seattle	WAC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
VCU	A10	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Western Carolina	SC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri	SEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.05	82.35	82.35	0.03	0.03
Xavier	BE	0.05	0.05	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Utah St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.05	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Charlotte	CUSA	0.05	0.05	17.86	17.86	-0.03	-0.03
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.05	0.05	76.67	76.67	0.03	0.03
New Mexico	MWC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Notre Dame	ACC	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Texas A&M	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.05	0.05	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
UTSA	CUSA	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Oakland	Horz	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
UMKC	WAC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
George Mason	A10	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Longwood	BSth	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	32.00	32.00	-0.01	-0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.03	0.03	30.77	30.77	-0.01	-0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SB	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.02	0.02	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Chicago St.	WAC	0.02	0.02	3.33	3.33	-0.02	-0.02
Colorado	P12	0.02	0.02	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Elon	CAA	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
FIU	CUSA	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Furman	SC	0.02	0.02	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Green Bay	Horz	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.02	0.02	80.65	80.65	0.01	0.01
Louisville	ACC	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.02	0.02	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.02	0.02	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Utah	BSky	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.02	0.02	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.02	0.02	80.00	80.00	0.01	0.01
Utah Valley	WAC	0.02	0.02	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
UTEP	CUSA	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.02	0.02	93.94	93.94	0.02	0.02