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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Southern

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:238.0
Current RPI:272
Expected SOS:344
Current SOS:220
Current Record:1-3
Expected Record:16-12
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:15-5
Current OOC Record:1-3
Expected OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC RPI:246
Expected OOC SOS:229



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-5106.00.02%
22-6122.20.10%
21-7140.40.61%
20-8157.92.22%
19-9178.56.21%
18-10197.812.25%
17-11218.118.39%
16-12237.819.19%
15-13257.017.46%
14-14275.212.43%
13-15292.36.85%
12-16307.42.97%
11-17319.80.94%
10-18329.40.20%
9-19339.50.11%
8-20342.00.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southern.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Ohio (94.7)MACA77-67L0%0.0
11-14Georgia Tech (168.6)ACCA77-62L0%0.0
11-17Sam Houston St. (171.2)SlndA91-83L0%0.0
11-22Tennessee Tech (304.6)OVCH80-68W100%0.0
12-3Florida A&M (346.2)MEACA0-075%8.3
12-7Tulane (269.7)AmerA0-037%-4.0
12-14Baylor (11.5)B12A0-01%-26.9
12-18UAB (128.6)CUSAA0-015%-12.2
12-20Nebraska (94.1)B10A0-010%-15.6
12-28Southeastern Louisiana (203.3)SlndH0-054%1.2
1-2Prairie View A&M (309.6)SWACH0-083%11.4
1-4Texas Southern (107.3)SWACH0-038%-3.7
1-7Grambling St. (333.4)SWACA0-073%7.2
1-9Jackson St. (300.4)SWACA0-054%1.3
1-14Arkansas Pine Bluff (334.8)SWACH0-088%14.2
1-16Mississippi Valley St. (315.8)SWACH0-087%13.4
1-21Alabama A&M (350.0)SWACA0-089%14.4
1-23Alabama St. (324.9)SWACA0-066%4.9
1-28Alcorn St. (320.5)SWACA0-068%5.6
2-4Grambling St. (333.4)SWACH0-087%13.4
2-6Jackson St. (300.4)SWACH0-073%7.5
2-11Arkansas Pine Bluff (334.8)SWACA0-075%8.0
2-13Mississippi Valley St. (315.8)SWACA0-073%7.2
2-18Alabama A&M (350.0)SWACH0-096%20.6
2-20Alabama St. (324.9)SWACH0-082%11.1
2-25Alcorn St. (320.5)SWACH0-084%11.8
3-2Prairie View A&M (309.6)SWACA0-067%5.2
3-4Texas Southern (107.3)SWACA0-020%-9.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Southern's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Southern's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Southern.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
SouthernSWAC29.2326.4225.0062.85-14.616.79
Alabama A&MSWAC0.894.650.0013.70-0.89-3.37
Jackson St.SWAC0.004.610.0043.03-0.00-0.64
Texas SouthernSWAC0.004.5957.1466.760.001.54
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.004.590.0024.66-0.00-2.33
Alcorn St.SWAC0.004.570.0033.07-0.00-1.55
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.004.560.0025.08-0.00-2.27
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.004.5616.6733.15-0.00-1.54
Alabama St.SWAC0.004.5614.2935.19-0.00-1.35
Grambling St.SWAC0.004.5528.5735.25-0.00-1.34
Tennessee TechOVC15.832.0016.6729.68-10.56-0.81
Georgia TechACC15.681.9860.0037.643.14-0.49
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.001.9550.0056.800.000.26
BaylorB121.041.94100.0073.621.040.92
Sam Houston St.Slnd15.681.9440.0057.01-3.140.27
UABCUSA0.001.9157.1461.160.000.43
OhioMAC15.481.8875.0067.147.740.64
TulaneAmer1.041.8514.2925.56-0.74-0.90
Florida A&MMEAC0.001.820.0023.42-0.00-0.97
NebraskaB100.001.7950.0041.940.00-0.29
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.3440.0067.95-0.000.12
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1950.0056.260.000.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.1950.0051.820.000.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.1833.3323.33-0.00-0.10
Michigan St.B100.000.1850.0061.590.000.04
TCUB120.000.18100.0059.480.000.03
Miami OHMAC0.000.1650.0033.010.00-0.05
LamarSlnd0.000.1660.0043.970.00-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.1675.0047.510.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA1.250.1683.3359.600.830.03
MemphisAmer0.000.1585.7159.740.000.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.1542.8634.17-0.00-0.05
TroySB0.000.1533.3332.23-0.00-0.05
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.1325.0053.29-0.000.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.130.0038.51-0.00-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.130.0020.01-0.00-0.08
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.1325.0056.71-0.000.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.130.0024.32-0.00-0.07
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.1333.3343.64-0.00-0.02
Ohio St.B100.000.1385.7172.660.000.06
Western MichiganMAC0.000.1316.6736.45-0.00-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.000.1225.0030.93-0.00-0.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1216.6736.35-0.00-0.03
WisconsinB100.000.1275.0073.840.000.06
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1257.1447.320.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.1283.3370.360.000.05
Central MichiganMAC0.890.1266.6756.360.300.02
DrakeMVC0.000.120.0021.30-0.00-0.07
KansasB120.000.1285.7176.170.000.06
NorthwesternB100.000.1271.4366.220.000.04
HoustonAmer0.000.1283.3376.370.000.06
Kansas St.B120.000.1285.7155.890.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.1283.3356.560.000.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.1285.7180.960.000.07
Iowa St.B120.000.1271.4368.970.000.04
LouisvilleACC0.000.1285.7175.950.000.06
SeattleWAC0.000.1220.0042.63-0.00-0.02
West VirginiaB120.000.1283.3380.550.000.07
CaliforniaP120.000.1083.3363.610.000.03
Colorado St.MWC0.000.1083.3361.490.000.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.100.0037.92-0.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.1066.6775.370.000.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.100.0024.19-0.00-0.05
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0914.2929.15-0.00-0.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0928.5730.29-0.00-0.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0942.8637.25-0.00-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.090.0034.01-0.00-0.03
North TexasCUSA0.000.0940.0030.80-0.00-0.04
VirginiaACC0.000.09100.0082.550.000.06
Ball St.MAC0.000.0950.0052.330.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0966.6732.240.00-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.000.0942.8661.90-0.000.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0950.0045.920.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0950.0046.670.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0966.6753.460.000.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0975.0054.320.000.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0957.1444.160.00-0.01
OklahomaB120.000.0983.3351.920.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.09100.0089.040.000.07
TexasB120.000.0950.0036.240.00-0.02
Texas St.SB0.000.0950.0043.310.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0928.5728.46-0.00-0.04
IndianaB100.000.0983.3375.060.000.04
RiceCUSA0.000.0985.7169.010.000.03
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0733.3340.39-0.00-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0766.6754.420.000.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0783.3350.740.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0716.6731.91-0.00-0.02
HowardMEAC0.000.070.0038.26-0.00-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0716.6737.09-0.00-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.060.0034.23-0.00-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.06100.0069.770.000.03
AkronMAC0.000.0683.3369.840.000.03
BuffaloMAC0.000.0640.0050.91-0.000.00
DuquesneA100.000.0637.5034.65-0.00-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0650.0055.850.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0620.0032.60-0.00-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.0671.4356.280.000.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0625.0024.28-0.00-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0616.6718.96-0.00-0.04
ToledoMAC0.000.0642.8650.36-0.000.00
BelmontOVC0.000.0640.0061.37-0.000.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0616.6730.02-0.00-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0642.8646.78-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0660.0067.410.000.02
IowaB100.000.0642.8644.33-0.00-0.01
LipscombASun0.890.0614.2933.07-0.64-0.02
MichiganB100.000.0671.4366.530.000.02
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0675.0064.960.000.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0620.0041.93-0.00-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0614.2928.15-0.00-0.03
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0675.0074.990.000.03
FurmanSC0.000.0620.0049.38-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B101.040.0662.5043.960.26-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0625.0034.47-0.00-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.0625.0043.26-0.00-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0685.7162.920.000.02
DenverSum0.000.0633.3341.11-0.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0616.6733.69-0.00-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0620.0034.39-0.00-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0660.0039.610.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0657.1442.940.00-0.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0650.0050.940.000.00
Little RockSB0.000.0660.0057.900.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0685.7173.010.000.03
New MexicoMWC0.000.0671.4358.670.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0685.7180.010.000.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0671.4350.570.000.00
Notre DameACC0.000.06100.0075.010.000.03
Oregon St.P120.000.0628.5723.76-0.00-0.03
SienaMAAC0.000.0628.5750.51-0.000.00
SMUAmer0.000.0657.1469.300.000.02
SyracuseACC0.000.0666.6770.140.000.02
TempleAmer0.000.0671.4363.570.000.02
Texas TechB120.000.0685.7163.780.000.02
TulsaAmer0.000.0660.0039.200.00-0.01
UtahP120.000.0675.0061.040.000.01
VCUA100.000.0685.7178.150.000.03
ArizonaP120.000.0685.7170.990.000.02
Fort WayneSum0.000.0666.6770.930.000.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.06100.0091.060.000.05
James MadisonCAA0.000.060.0028.15-0.00-0.03
La SalleA100.000.0660.0051.780.000.00
LibertyBSth0.000.0640.0050.71-0.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0666.6761.340.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.0671.4349.770.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.000.0625.0040.81-0.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0657.1464.940.000.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.0350.0042.710.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.0383.3362.840.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0018.22-0.00-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0350.0045.410.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.030.0034.18-0.00-0.01
IdahoBSky1.040.0340.0050.88-0.210.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0357.1459.480.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.030.0038.35-0.00-0.01
SamfordSC0.000.0357.1455.810.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0027.77-0.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.0328.5728.26-0.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.0328.5750.20-0.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0316.6730.27-0.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0360.0070.140.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0333.3333.15-0.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0342.8645.30-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0340.0041.65-0.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0076.650.000.02
DaytonA100.000.0366.6772.440.000.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0350.0043.490.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0320.0048.38-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.000.0357.1442.660.00-0.00
MarylandB100.000.0385.7156.490.000.00
MinnesotaB100.000.0385.7165.670.000.01
PurdueB100.000.0371.4374.450.000.02
RutgersB100.000.0383.3344.770.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.030.0021.30-0.00-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0357.1440.590.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.0357.1447.220.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0350.0038.430.00-0.01
UCLAP120.000.03100.0083.550.000.02
Arizona St.P120.000.0357.1436.050.00-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0383.3355.200.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0350.0027.250.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0366.6751.090.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0333.3338.76-0.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.0387.5078.680.000.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0350.0071.330.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0385.7162.410.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0366.6754.380.000.00
Miami FLACC0.000.0371.4365.740.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0371.4346.010.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0366.6765.810.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.030.0019.30-0.00-0.02
OregonP120.000.0371.4366.730.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0385.7155.550.000.00
St. John'sBE0.000.0328.5733.92-0.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.0383.3374.620.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0371.4352.370.000.00
WoffordSC0.000.030.0033.58-0.00-0.01
XavierBE0.000.03100.0074.800.000.01