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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Southern

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:186.0
Current RPI:186
Expected SOS:336
Current SOS:336
Current Record:19-12
Expected Record:19-12
Current Conf Record:14-7
Expected Conf Record:14-7
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:15-6
Current OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC RPI:119
Expected OOC SOS:191



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-12186.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southern.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Arkansas (133.0)SECA86-68L0%0.0
11-16Mississippi St. (154.0)SECA72-76W100%0.0
11-19Tulane (227.0)AmerH90-82W100%0.0
12-4Southeastern Louisiana (331.0)SlndA69-73W100%0.0
12-8Grand Canyon (91.0)WACA70-56L0%0.0
12-10Wyoming (187.0)MWCA58-68W100%0.0
12-15Memphis (139.0)AmerA72-67L0%0.0
12-18Louisiana Tech (122.0)CUSAA83-76L0%0.0
12-21North Carolina Central (310.0)MEACN63-68W100%0.0
12-22Nebraska Omaha (144.0)SumN53-74L0%0.0
1-2Texas Southern (190.0)SWACA88-66L0%0.0
1-4Prairie View A&M (334.0)SWACA71-65L0%0.0
1-9Grambling St. (350.0)SWACH66-61W100%0.0
1-11Jackson St. (221.0)SWACH74-66W100%0.0
1-16Arkansas Pine Bluff (311.0)SWACA55-69W100%0.0
1-18Mississippi Valley St. (330.0)SWACA54-67W100%0.0
1-23Alabama St. (265.0)SWACH73-69W100%0.0
1-25Alabama A&M (332.0)SWACH73-52W100%0.0
1-30Alcorn St. (253.0)SWACH75-64W100%0.0
2-6Grambling St. (350.0)SWACA66-79W100%0.0
2-8Jackson St. (221.0)SWACA81-80L0%0.0
2-13Arkansas Pine Bluff (311.0)SWACH66-58W100%0.0
2-15Mississippi Valley St. (330.0)SWACH97-64W100%0.0
2-20Alabama St. (265.0)SWACA77-68L0%0.0
2-22Alabama A&M (332.0)SWACA78-66L0%0.0
2-27Alcorn St. (253.0)SWACA70-56L0%0.0
3-3Texas Southern (190.0)SWACH84-79W100%0.0
3-5Prairie View A&M (334.0)SWACH71-79L0%0.0
3-10Alabama St. (265.0)SWACN83-63W100%0.0
3-11Texas Southern (190.0)SWACA73-81W100%0.0
3-12Jackson St. (221.0)SWACN53-54W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Southern's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Southern's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Southern.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
SouthernSWAC26.6126.6168.4268.429.809.80
Jackson St.SWAC5.955.9555.1755.170.620.62
Texas SouthernSWAC5.885.8858.6258.621.011.01
Alabama St.SWAC5.785.7842.3142.31-0.89-0.89
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC4.494.4924.2424.24-2.31-2.31
Alabama A&MSWAC4.374.3734.6234.62-1.34-1.34
Prairie View A&MSWAC4.364.3617.2417.24-2.85-2.85
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC4.324.3225.8125.81-2.09-2.09
Grambling St.SWAC4.324.3215.3815.38-2.99-2.99
Alcorn St.SWAC4.294.2946.1546.15-0.33-0.33
Louisiana TechCUSA1.851.8568.9768.970.700.70
TulaneAmer1.821.8236.3636.36-0.50-0.50
Mississippi St.SEC1.791.7946.6746.67-0.12-0.12
MemphisAmer1.771.7754.5554.550.160.16
Grand CanyonWAC1.741.7478.5778.571.001.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd1.741.7433.3333.33-0.58-0.58
North Carolina CentralMEAC1.711.7135.7135.71-0.49-0.49
Nebraska OmahaSum1.671.6753.5753.570.120.12
ArkansasSEC1.661.6648.3948.39-0.05-0.05
WyomingMWC1.641.6441.3841.38-0.28-0.28
HoustonAmer0.230.2370.9770.970.100.10
EvansvilleMVC0.210.2172.7372.730.100.10
BaylorB120.200.2065.6265.620.060.06
MercerSC0.190.1954.8454.840.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.190.1957.5857.580.030.03
Southern MissCUSA0.180.1825.9325.93-0.09-0.09
NebraskaB100.170.1747.0647.06-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.150.1532.2632.26-0.05-0.05
East CarolinaAmer0.150.1537.5037.50-0.04-0.04
SeattleWAC0.150.1542.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.150.1560.7160.710.030.03
CincinnatiAmer0.150.1568.7568.750.050.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.140.1420.6920.69-0.08-0.08
Florida A&MMEAC0.140.1422.2222.22-0.08-0.08
Chicago St.WAC0.140.143.453.45-0.13-0.13
MarquetteBE0.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
HowardMEAC0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.130.1348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.130.1313.3313.33-0.09-0.09
New Mexico St.WAC0.130.1367.7467.740.050.05
Texas A&MSEC0.130.1376.4776.470.070.07
MississippiSEC0.130.1362.5062.500.030.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.130.1382.1482.140.080.08
OhioMAC0.120.1264.5264.520.040.04
ConnecticutAmer0.120.1270.5970.590.050.05
UCFAmer0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.120.1264.2964.290.030.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
UTEPCUSA0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
DenverSum0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
UABCUSA0.110.1180.6580.650.070.07
UMKCWAC0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
MarshallCUSA0.110.1151.5251.520.000.00
Ohio St.B100.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
UNLVMWC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.100.1025.9325.93-0.05-0.05
South CarolinaSEC0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
Texas TechB120.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
HawaiiBW0.090.0983.3383.330.060.06
SMUAmer0.090.0983.3383.330.060.06
South FloridaAmer0.090.0924.2424.24-0.05-0.05
TulsaAmer0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0884.3884.380.060.06
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.080.0857.6957.690.010.01
ElonCAA0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0872.4172.410.040.04
Montana St.BSky0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0811.1111.11-0.06-0.06
IUPUISum0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
TCUB120.080.0836.3636.36-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.080.0820.8320.83-0.05-0.05
FloridaSEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
LSUSEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.080.0844.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
CreightonBE0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
IonaMAAC0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
Miami OHMAC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
SyracuseACC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Washington St.P120.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Georgia TechACC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
TempleAmer0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
IndianaB100.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
Murray St.OVC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
OaklandHorz0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
PortlandWCC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0616.6716.67-0.04-0.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
IPFWSum0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0677.4277.420.030.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.060.0618.5218.52-0.04-0.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0629.1729.17-0.02-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
NevadaMWC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0562.8662.860.010.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Utah St.MWC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
BryantNEC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0526.9226.92-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
WisconsinB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
ArmyPat0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Michigan St.B100.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
DuquesneA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0383.8783.870.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
CaliforniaP120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0356.0056.000.000.00
LamarSlnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
AkronMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
North FloridaASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
StanfordP120.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.020.0282.3582.350.020.02
OklahomaB120.020.0278.1278.120.010.01