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Through games of Feb 5, 2016.


Southern

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:176.1
Current RPI:183
Expected SOS:344
Current SOS:344
Current Record:12-7
Expected Record:19-9
Current Conf Record:7-2
Expected Conf Record:14-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:16-3
Current OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC RPI:115
Expected OOC SOS:183



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-7139.33.85%
20-8154.117.68%
19-9168.730.97%
18-10183.727.98%
17-11198.814.20%
16-12215.04.52%
15-13233.20.72%
14-14254.10.07%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southern.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Arkansas (91.4)SECA86-68L0%0.0
11-16Mississippi St. (171.8)SECA72-76W100%0.0
11-19Tulane (239.1)AmerH90-82W100%0.0
12-4Southeastern Louisiana (334.7)SlndA69-73W100%0.0
12-8Grand Canyon (100.6)WACA70-56L0%0.0
12-10Wyoming (190.3)MWCA58-68W100%0.0
12-15Memphis (126.0)AmerA72-67L0%0.0
12-18Louisiana Tech (118.2)CUSAA83-76L0%0.0
12-21North Carolina Central (310.3)MEACN63-68W100%0.0
12-22Nebraska Omaha (121.1)SumN53-74L0%0.0
1-2Texas Southern (178.9)SWACA88-66L0%0.0
1-4Prairie View A&M (345.4)SWACA71-65L0%0.0
1-9Grambling St. (344.2)SWACH66-61W100%0.0
1-11Jackson St. (205.2)SWACH74-66W100%0.0
1-16Arkansas Pine Bluff (317.2)SWACA55-69W100%0.0
1-18Mississippi Valley St. (324.6)SWACA54-67W100%0.0
1-23Alabama St. (302.2)SWACH73-69W100%0.0
1-25Alabama A&M (299.1)SWACH73-52W100%0.0
1-30Alcorn St. (308.0)SWACH75-64W100%0.0
2-6Grambling St. (344.2)SWACA0-084%11.0
2-8Jackson St. (205.2)SWACA0-040%-2.8
2-13Arkansas Pine Bluff (317.2)SWACH0-094%16.6
2-15Mississippi Valley St. (324.6)SWACH0-092%15.4
2-20Alabama St. (302.2)SWACA0-064%3.8
2-22Alabama A&M (299.1)SWACA0-054%1.1
2-27Alcorn St. (308.0)SWACA0-079%8.6
3-3Texas Southern (178.9)SWACH0-055%1.3
3-5Prairie View A&M (345.4)SWACH0-092%15.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Southern's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Southern's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Southern.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
SouthernSWAC26.2226.4271.6073.1611.3312.24
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC3.304.6418.1822.95-2.10-2.51
Prairie View A&MSWAC3.294.630.0011.14-3.29-3.60
Jackson St.SWAC3.304.6252.6358.500.170.79
Grambling St.SWAC3.284.6117.6521.74-2.12-2.61
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC3.244.6022.7326.03-1.77-2.21
Texas SouthernSWAC3.234.6045.0056.17-0.320.57
Alcorn St.SWAC3.224.5835.2936.05-0.95-1.28
Alabama A&MSWAC3.214.5837.5046.29-0.80-0.34
Alabama St.SWAC3.164.5627.7835.04-1.40-1.36
Louisiana TechCUSA2.962.0473.6871.231.400.86
TulaneAmer2.892.0034.7833.49-0.88-0.66
Mississippi St.SEC2.881.9745.0043.19-0.29-0.27
MemphisAmer2.831.9457.1457.170.400.28
Grand CanyonWAC2.821.9480.9580.311.751.18
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd2.751.9011.1126.27-2.14-0.90
North Carolina CentralMEAC2.821.9027.7838.40-1.25-0.44
Nebraska OmahaSum2.751.8557.1457.970.390.29
ArkansasSEC2.691.8547.6253.35-0.130.12
WyomingMWC2.691.8242.8641.90-0.38-0.29
HoustonAmer0.310.2472.7368.010.140.09
EvansvilleMVC0.260.2273.9176.040.130.11
NebraskaB100.250.2052.1751.560.010.01
MercerSC0.260.1971.4370.600.110.08
Virginia TechACC0.200.1952.1747.250.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.130.1845.4541.98-0.01-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.310.1833.3333.64-0.10-0.06
BaylorB120.190.1876.1967.350.100.06
SeattleWAC0.170.1845.0042.81-0.02-0.03
MissouriSEC0.240.1836.3630.98-0.07-0.07
CincinnatiAmer0.240.1773.9173.090.120.08
Florida A&MMEAC0.210.1721.0523.70-0.12-0.09
New Mexico St.WAC0.240.1563.6468.210.060.05
Texas A&MSEC0.250.1581.8281.010.160.09
MississippiSEC0.190.1563.6456.050.050.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.180.1566.6765.410.060.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.1326.0930.33-0.03-0.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.150.1326.0925.56-0.07-0.06
Tennessee St.OVC0.150.1365.0060.810.040.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.140.1331.5833.51-0.05-0.04
MarshallCUSA0.190.1347.8350.56-0.010.00
MarquetteBE0.140.1365.2256.530.040.02
UTEPCUSA0.140.1350.0050.040.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.130.134.557.91-0.12-0.11
Ohio St.B100.200.1358.3354.120.030.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.200.1365.0068.750.060.05
UMKCWAC0.180.1330.0034.84-0.07-0.04
UNLVMWC0.120.1252.3857.440.010.02
UTSACUSA0.130.1214.2913.97-0.09-0.09
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.190.1268.7574.730.070.06
Air ForceMWC0.180.1242.8635.05-0.03-0.04
North TexasCUSA0.060.1230.0029.46-0.02-0.05
OhioMAC0.120.1260.0057.960.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.120.1285.7176.030.090.06
ConnecticutAmer0.230.1272.7372.440.100.05
SMUAmer0.110.1290.4885.550.090.08
South FloridaAmer0.170.1220.8320.11-0.10-0.07
UCFAmer0.110.1255.0047.170.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.180.1161.9054.010.040.01
HawaiiBW0.110.1183.3380.130.080.07
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.1028.5734.73-0.03-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.1047.6247.96-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.140.1014.2916.31-0.10-0.07
Tennessee MartinOVC0.140.1045.4547.97-0.01-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.120.0965.0067.510.040.03
DenverSum0.120.0952.1748.790.01-0.00
UABCUSA0.070.0981.8278.320.040.05
ClemsonACC0.130.0963.6462.340.040.02
HowardMEAC0.130.0940.0042.53-0.03-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.180.0938.1041.23-0.04-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.120.0971.4370.810.050.04
IUPUISum0.120.0941.6740.25-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.120.0950.0050.510.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0929.4138.47-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0910.0015.28-0.05-0.06
Northwestern St.Slnd0.130.0918.7526.09-0.08-0.04
New MexicoMWC0.120.0963.6464.090.030.03
TCUB120.130.0945.4537.84-0.01-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.180.0954.5552.750.020.00
AlabamaSEC0.060.0957.1452.310.010.00
LSUSEC0.060.0963.6459.440.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.060.0950.0048.260.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.060.0961.9058.420.010.01
TulsaAmer0.110.0963.6459.950.030.02
Ball St.MAC0.080.0761.9058.190.020.01
Murray St.OVC0.080.0747.6252.92-0.000.00
Saint LouisA100.080.0738.1033.38-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.130.0710.0014.87-0.10-0.05
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.130.0738.1042.99-0.03-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.130.0760.0061.350.030.02
IndianaB100.070.0782.6177.370.050.04
OaklandHorz0.070.0766.6767.310.020.02
PortlandWCC0.070.0737.5036.54-0.02-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0685.7184.560.050.04
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.070.0657.8957.330.010.01
ElonCAA0.070.0654.5553.020.010.00
IPFWSum0.060.0673.9170.210.030.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0661.9060.410.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0640.9143.01-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.120.0639.1339.48-0.03-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0676.1976.220.030.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.060.0615.0015.65-0.04-0.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0635.0035.36-0.02-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.120.0627.7829.23-0.05-0.03
WinthropBSth0.070.0665.0063.370.020.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.120.0630.0029.98-0.05-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0633.3333.55-0.00-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0645.0041.83-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.060.0666.6766.030.020.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0616.6724.27-0.00-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0650.0048.750.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0660.0057.290.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0618.7533.17-0.04-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.070.0628.5728.88-0.03-0.03
NevadaMWC0.120.0657.8956.110.020.01
OregonP120.070.0681.8278.210.040.03
RiceCUSA0.070.0625.0028.19-0.03-0.03
San Jose St.MWC0.060.0625.0022.58-0.03-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.130.0668.1863.250.050.02
BryantNEC0.060.0626.0927.58-0.03-0.03
CreightonBE0.060.0660.8759.050.010.01
IonaMAAC0.060.0659.0959.680.010.01
RadfordBSth0.060.0652.3853.620.000.00
SyracuseACC0.060.0666.6762.710.020.02
Texas St.SB0.060.0641.1840.28-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.060.0677.2776.780.030.03
Washington St.P120.060.0638.1033.45-0.01-0.02
WisconsinB100.060.0660.8755.900.010.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0642.8637.19-0.00-0.02
FloridaSEC0.120.0668.1867.800.040.02
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0660.0056.080.010.01
KentuckySEC0.120.0672.7369.690.060.02
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0659.0962.730.010.01
ArmyPat0.060.0654.5556.020.010.01
BYUWCC0.060.0669.5773.030.020.03
DuquesneA100.060.0666.6758.760.020.01
Iowa St.B120.060.0672.7368.840.030.02
Michigan St.B100.060.0682.6181.380.040.04
NorthwesternB100.060.0666.6763.480.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0650.0045.730.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0625.0029.52-0.03-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0631.8232.32-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.070.0357.1457.930.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.070.0350.0050.860.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0327.2732.84-0.03-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0321.0529.16-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0338.1047.51-0.02-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.070.0338.1037.53-0.02-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0347.6252.96-0.000.00
ColoradoP120.060.0372.7366.970.030.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0338.8943.22-0.01-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.060.0381.8277.490.040.02
MinnesotaB100.060.0326.0927.81-0.03-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.060.0333.3339.27-0.02-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0318.1822.83-0.04-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0340.0049.74-0.01-0.00
CaliforniaP120.060.0363.6461.810.020.01
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0336.3642.19-0.02-0.00
FIUCUSA0.070.0342.8645.93-0.01-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0323.8128.31-0.03-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0345.0049.60-0.01-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0342.8647.27-0.01-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.0355.5650.840.010.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.0353.3355.180.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0354.5555.310.010.00
LamarSlnd0.070.0333.3332.69-0.02-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0357.8961.920.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0370.0068.920.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0354.5561.950.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0347.3750.51-0.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.070.0373.6870.400.030.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0347.3749.38-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0350.0053.090.000.00
Miami FLACC0.060.0380.9575.640.040.02
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0340.9138.03-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.060.0381.8279.750.040.02
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0327.2730.43-0.02-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0325.0029.29-0.03-0.01
DaytonA100.060.0385.7181.220.040.02
DrakeMVC0.050.0322.7324.85-0.03-0.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0331.8232.92-0.02-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0345.0043.19-0.01-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.050.0386.3680.660.040.02
North FloridaASun0.060.0368.1869.350.020.01
OklahomaB120.060.0390.4884.890.050.02
StanfordP120.060.0352.6347.690.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.060.0345.4542.14-0.01-0.00