Southern

Conference:	SWAC
Expected RPI:	294.1
Current RPI:	298
Expected SOS:	344
Current SOS:	344
Current Record:	9-11
Expected Record:	13-15
Current Conf Record:	8-2
Expected Conf Record:	12-6
Probability of Auto Bid:	7.33%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	13-8
Current OOC Record:	1-9
Expected OOC Record:	1-9
Expected OOC RPI:	338
Expected OOC SOS:	307

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
17-11	231.9	0.16%
16-12	252.8	2.38%
15-13	269.7	9.64%
14-14	283.4	21.57%
13-15	294.4	28.87%
12-16	304.3	22.64%
11-17	314.8	11.70%
10-18	324.3	2.75%
9-19	332.5	0.28%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southern.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-13	Texas A&M (154.9)	B12	A	83-58	L	0%	0.0
11-17	Rice (177.4)	CUSA	A	80-65	L	0%	0.0
11-22	Providence (146.8)	BE	A	59-53	L	0%	0.0
11-25	Florida A&M (329.2)	MEAC	N	64-61	W	100%	0.0
11-26	Northern Colorado (251.5)	BSky	N	57-77	L	0%	0.0
11-30	Tulane (174.9)	CUSA	A	78-53	L	0%	0.0
12-10	Jacksonville St. (252.5)	OVC	N	50-55	L	0%	0.0
12-12	Southeastern Louisiana (326.2)	Slnd	A	65-61	L	0%	0.0
12-17	Texas El Paso (178.1)	CUSA	A	87-57	L	0%	0.0
12-19	New Mexico St. (73.3)	WAC	A	91-66	L	0%	0.0
1-3	Prairie View A&M (281.7)	SWAC	A	65-73	W	100%	0.0
1-5	Texas Southern (244.5)	SWAC	A	73-39	L	0%	0.0
1-7	Grambling (341.3)	SWAC	H	72-59	W	100%	0.0
1-9	Jackson St. (308.4)	SWAC	H	68-37	W	100%	0.0
1-14	Arkansas Pine Bluff (327.1)	SWAC	A	68-69	W	100%	0.0
1-16	Mississippi Valley St. (158.6)	SWAC	A	77-56	L	0%	0.0
1-21	Alabama A&M (332.6)	SWAC	H	75-69	W	100%	0.0
1-23	Alabama St. (301.5)	SWAC	H	68-56	W	100%	0.0
1-28	Alcorn St. (333.4)	SWAC	H	65-54	W	100%	0.0
2-4	Grambling (341.3)	SWAC	A	53-57	W	100%	0.0
2-6	Jackson St. (308.4)	SWAC	A	0-0		44%	-1.6
2-11	Arkansas Pine Bluff (327.1)	SWAC	H	0-0		69%	5.5
2-13	Mississippi Valley St. (158.6)	SWAC	H	0-0		31%	-5.3
2-18	Alabama A&M (332.6)	SWAC	A	0-0		47%	-0.8
2-20	Alabama St. (301.5)	SWAC	A	0-0		39%	-3.1
2-25	Alcorn St. (333.4)	SWAC	A	0-0		56%	1.6
3-1	Prairie View A&M (281.7)	SWAC	H	0-0		63%	3.5
3-3	Texas Southern (244.5)	SWAC	H	0-0		43%	-1.9

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Southern's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Southern's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Southern.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Southern	SWAC	26.33	26.45	52.56	51.35	1.35	0.72
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	3.30	4.69	18.18	25.03	-2.10	-2.34
Alcorn St.	SWAC	3.23	4.64	17.65	23.10	-2.09	-2.49
Alabama St.	SWAC	3.17	4.62	31.58	37.82	-1.17	-1.12
Alabama A&M	SWAC	3.16	4.60	18.75	27.15	-1.98	-2.10
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	3.13	4.59	47.62	56.29	-0.15	0.58
Texas Southern	SWAC	3.13	4.59	28.57	39.54	-1.34	-0.96
Jackson St.	SWAC	3.13	4.59	20.00	25.33	-1.88	-2.26
Grambling	SWAC	5.50	4.58	16.67	16.94	-3.66	-3.03
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	3.11	4.58	36.84	42.48	-0.82	-0.69
Tulane	CUSA	2.87	2.08	60.00	57.05	0.57	0.29
Texas El Paso	CUSA	2.78	2.03	40.91	41.35	-0.51	-0.35
Rice	CUSA	2.79	1.97	45.00	44.48	-0.28	-0.22
Jacksonville St.	OVC	2.68	1.94	31.82	36.14	-0.97	-0.54
New Mexico St.	WAC	2.73	1.94	68.18	67.83	0.99	0.69
Texas A&M	B12	2.63	1.89	50.00	44.22	0.00	-0.22
Florida A&M	MEAC	2.61	1.85	20.00	23.20	-1.57	-0.99
Providence	BE	2.56	1.82	54.55	48.61	0.23	-0.05
Northern Colorado	BSky	2.55	1.82	26.32	28.80	-1.21	-0.77
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	2.50	1.79	23.53	26.76	-1.32	-0.83
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.29	0.31	38.10	37.86	-0.07	-0.07
Tulsa	CUSA	0.30	0.28	60.87	59.05	0.07	0.05
Iowa St.	B12	0.36	0.28	73.91	68.43	0.17	0.10
Houston	CUSA	0.29	0.25	47.62	44.63	-0.01	-0.03
Baylor	B12	0.30	0.25	90.91	83.85	0.24	0.17
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.31	0.22	47.06	50.75	-0.02	0.00
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.24	0.22	85.71	82.18	0.17	0.14
Arkansas	SEC	0.31	0.22	69.57	65.15	0.12	0.07
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.18	0.19	56.52	53.10	0.02	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.29	0.19	59.09	59.72	0.05	0.04
Cincinnati	BE	0.17	0.18	69.57	65.47	0.07	0.06
UAB	CUSA	0.19	0.16	40.91	39.82	-0.03	-0.03
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.19	0.16	55.00	54.48	0.02	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.25	0.16	31.82	25.98	-0.09	-0.08
Colorado St.	MWC	0.23	0.16	66.67	60.80	0.08	0.03
Memphis	CUSA	0.12	0.16	69.57	71.51	0.05	0.07
Florida	SEC	0.18	0.15	82.61	77.63	0.11	0.08
DePaul	BE	0.11	0.15	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.02
South Alabama	SB	0.14	0.14	52.38	52.87	0.01	0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.19	0.14	39.13	42.12	-0.04	-0.02
Michigan	B10	0.13	0.13	72.73	66.81	0.06	0.04
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.18	0.13	41.18	42.61	-0.03	-0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.18	0.13	38.89	43.93	-0.04	-0.02
North Texas	SB	0.18	0.13	50.00	50.01	0.00	0.00
Mississippi	SEC	0.18	0.12	63.64	56.71	0.05	0.02
Nevada	WAC	0.12	0.12	80.95	76.42	0.07	0.07
St. Louis	A10	0.12	0.12	77.27	77.67	0.07	0.07
South Carolina	SEC	0.18	0.12	40.91	39.56	-0.03	-0.03
Florida International	SB	0.12	0.12	33.33	37.16	-0.04	-0.03
Auburn	SEC	0.17	0.12	56.52	48.81	0.02	-0.00
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.11	0.12	45.45	40.70	-0.01	-0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.11	0.12	61.90	55.14	0.03	0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.13	0.10	61.90	67.23	0.03	0.03
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.13	0.10	25.00	23.75	-0.06	-0.05
San Diego	WCC	0.13	0.10	33.33	33.82	-0.04	-0.03
Weber St.	BSky	0.12	0.10	80.00	76.84	0.07	0.05
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.12	0.10	47.62	47.18	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.05	0.10	4.35	9.66	-0.05	-0.08
West Virginia	BE	0.07	0.10	65.22	65.17	0.02	0.03
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.19	0.10	18.18	21.13	-0.12	-0.06
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.18	0.10	20.00	19.96	-0.11	-0.06
Texas Christian	MWC	0.18	0.10	57.14	49.54	0.03	-0.00
Wofford	SC	0.12	0.10	59.09	57.93	0.02	0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.18	0.10	62.50	61.50	0.04	0.02
Cal Poly	BW	0.06	0.09	50.00	56.76	0.00	0.01
Denver	SB	0.12	0.09	70.83	72.23	0.05	0.04
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.18	0.09	42.86	43.45	-0.03	-0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.06	0.09	71.43	66.60	0.03	0.03
Clemson	ACC	0.12	0.09	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
East Carolina	CUSA	0.11	0.09	44.44	41.71	-0.01	-0.02
Oregon	P12	0.12	0.09	69.57	64.53	0.05	0.03
North Florida	ASun	0.12	0.09	45.83	46.68	-0.01	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.12	0.09	60.87	61.37	0.03	0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.12	0.09	55.00	57.41	0.01	0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.11	0.09	72.73	68.28	0.05	0.03
Akron	MAC	0.11	0.09	68.18	67.91	0.04	0.03
South Florida	BE	0.11	0.09	54.55	48.60	0.01	-0.00
Syracuse	BE	0.17	0.09	95.83	92.01	0.15	0.08
Notre Dame	BE	0.06	0.09	65.22	62.65	0.02	0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.07	0.07	68.18	69.10	0.03	0.03
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.07	0.07	27.78	29.87	-0.03	-0.03
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.06	0.07	40.91	44.03	-0.01	-0.01
Idaho St.	BSky	0.13	0.07	33.33	33.88	-0.04	-0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.07	0.07	71.43	69.05	0.03	0.03
Montana	BSky	0.06	0.07	70.00	73.28	0.03	0.03
Montana St.	BSky	0.06	0.07	45.00	41.76	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.07	0.07	52.38	46.68	0.00	-0.00
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.13	0.07	13.64	16.14	-0.09	-0.05
Portland St.	BSky	0.06	0.07	42.86	45.80	-0.01	-0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.13	0.07	30.00	33.20	-0.05	-0.02
Western Carolina	SC	0.12	0.07	34.78	37.24	-0.04	-0.02
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.13	0.07	8.70	8.99	-0.11	-0.05
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.13	0.07	26.32	29.79	-0.06	-0.03
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.05	0.06	57.14	60.75	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.12	0.06	38.10	42.78	-0.03	-0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.06	0.06	75.00	76.00	0.03	0.03
Detroit	Horz	0.06	0.06	47.83	49.03	-0.00	-0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.06	0.06	45.45	44.02	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.06	0.06	50.00	48.90	0.00	-0.00
Longwood	ind	0.06	0.06	30.00	27.84	-0.03	-0.03
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.13	0.06	59.09	57.28	0.02	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.06	45.45	46.99	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.06	0.06	33.33	37.25	-0.02	-0.02
Oakland	Sum	0.13	0.06	48.00	50.21	-0.01	0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	52.38	57.86	0.00	0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.11	0.06	26.32	29.71	-0.05	-0.03
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	10.00	14.93	-0.05	-0.04
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.11	0.06	54.55	56.09	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.11	0.06	60.87	59.76	0.02	0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.13	0.06	54.55	57.69	0.01	0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.13	0.06	50.00	48.17	0.00	-0.00
Marquette	BE	0.12	0.06	79.17	75.98	0.07	0.03
California	P12	0.06	0.06	75.00	74.61	0.03	0.03
Kansas	B12	0.06	0.06	78.26	78.39	0.03	0.03
Missouri	B12	0.06	0.06	91.30	87.18	0.05	0.05
Ohio St.	B10	0.06	0.06	86.96	85.46	0.04	0.04
Oklahoma	B12	0.06	0.06	59.09	54.70	0.01	0.01
St. Mary's	WCC	0.06	0.06	90.91	87.74	0.05	0.05
Wright St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	41.67	40.61	-0.01	-0.01
St. John's	BE	0.11	0.06	43.48	40.28	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.11	0.06	47.83	47.87	-0.00	-0.00
Colorado	P12	0.06	0.06	66.67	62.65	0.02	0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	40.91	38.38	-0.01	-0.01
Fresno St.	WAC	0.05	0.06	39.13	44.52	-0.01	-0.01
Hawaii	WAC	0.05	0.06	57.14	53.12	0.01	0.00
Idaho	WAC	0.05	0.06	47.62	51.08	-0.00	0.00
IUPUI	Sum	0.06	0.06	34.78	35.50	-0.02	-0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.06	0.06	76.19	72.91	0.03	0.03
New Mexico	MWC	0.11	0.06	81.82	81.03	0.07	0.04
North Carolina	ACC	0.06	0.06	86.96	83.16	0.04	0.04
San Jose St.	WAC	0.05	0.06	27.27	26.95	-0.02	-0.03
Utah St.	WAC	0.05	0.06	50.00	52.93	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.06	0.06	75.00	73.97	0.03	0.03
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.06	0.06	56.52	57.72	0.01	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.05	0.06	47.37	42.16	-0.00	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.06	80.95	77.38	0.03	0.03
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.05	0.06	80.77	80.75	0.03	0.04
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.07	0.03	76.19	75.94	0.04	0.02
Texas St.	Slnd	0.00	0.03	22.22	27.62	-0.00	-0.02
Western Kentucky	SB	0.07	0.03	34.78	34.48	-0.02	-0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.06	0.03	76.19	70.73	0.03	0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.03	33.33	35.97	-0.02	-0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.06	0.03	35.29	39.85	-0.02	-0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.05	0.03	33.33	34.47	-0.02	-0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.03	50.00	51.73	0.00	0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.00	0.03	36.36	38.48	-0.00	-0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.06	0.03	25.00	28.52	-0.03	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.00	0.03	18.18	22.22	-0.00	-0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.00	0.03	25.00	37.58	-0.00	-0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	100.00	94.55	0.05	0.03
Navy	Pat	0.06	0.03	9.52	13.19	-0.05	-0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.00	0.03	68.18	69.68	0.00	0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.00	0.03	40.91	43.66	-0.00	-0.00
Princeton	Ivy	0.06	0.03	47.37	52.87	-0.00	0.00
Stetson	ASun	0.06	0.03	31.82	31.31	-0.02	-0.01
Temple	A10	0.06	0.03	77.27	75.06	0.03	0.02
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.06	0.03	19.05	24.61	-0.04	-0.02
Liberty	BSth	0.06	0.03	27.27	27.21	-0.03	-0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.06	0.03	78.26	72.34	0.03	0.01
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.03	66.67	68.55	0.02	0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.03	28.57	34.20	-0.02	-0.01
Drake	MVC	0.00	0.03	52.17	50.09	0.00	0.00
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.05	0.03	82.61	81.44	0.04	0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.05	0.03	56.52	53.77	0.01	0.00
UC Riverside	BW	0.05	0.03	42.86	39.66	-0.01	-0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.03	30.43	26.44	-0.02	-0.01
Brown	Ivy	0.05	0.03	27.27	23.80	-0.02	-0.02
Bryant	NEC	0.05	0.03	8.33	10.86	-0.05	-0.02
Connecticut	BE	0.00	0.03	68.18	63.99	0.00	0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.05	0.03	54.55	54.30	0.00	0.00
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.05	0.03	8.70	12.13	-0.04	-0.02
Holy Cross	Pat	0.05	0.03	40.91	42.05	-0.01	-0.00
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.03	78.26	72.66	0.03	0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.05	0.03	35.00	38.58	-0.02	-0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.05	0.03	60.87	58.16	0.01	0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.03	20.83	20.60	-0.03	-0.02
Rutgers	BE	0.05	0.03	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	63.74	0.02	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.00	0.03	45.45	46.08	-0.00	-0.00