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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Southern

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:315.0
Current RPI:315
Expected SOS:348
Current SOS:348
Current Record:13-18
Expected Record:13-18
Current Conf Record:11-9
Expected Conf Record:11-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-10
Current OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC RPI:297
Expected OOC SOS:178



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-18315.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southern.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Illinois (181.0)B10A102-55L0%0.0
11-13Marshall (87.0)CUSAA83-74L0%0.0
11-15Missouri St. (136.0)MVCA86-58L0%0.0
11-17Duke (7.0)ACCA78-61L0%0.0
11-19North Carolina Central (279.0)MEACA80-67L0%0.0
11-22Tennessee Martin (306.0)OVCH69-66W100%0.0
12-6Tulane (175.0)AmerA95-76L0%0.0
12-9UCF (84.0)AmerA76-60L0%0.0
12-10Iowa (157.0)B10A91-60L0%0.0
12-14Florida A&M (332.0)MEACH68-50W100%0.0
12-20Baylor (68.0)B12A80-60L0%0.0
1-1Texas Southern (222.0)SWACA78-66L0%0.0
1-3Prairie View A&M (247.0)SWACA78-74L0%0.0
1-6Grambling St. (249.0)SWACH80-69W100%0.0
1-8Jackson St. (330.0)SWACH61-65L0%0.0
1-13Arkansas Pine Bluff (307.0)SWACA78-76L0%0.0
1-15Mississippi Valley St. (349.0)SWACA70-78W100%0.0
1-20Alabama St. (333.0)SWACH63-61W100%0.0
1-22Alabama A&M (350.0)SWACH62-61W100%0.0
1-27Alcorn St. (348.0)SWACH61-48W100%0.0
2-3Grambling St. (249.0)SWACA69-68L0%0.0
2-5Jackson St. (330.0)SWACA62-67W100%0.0
2-10Arkansas Pine Bluff (307.0)SWACH70-62W100%0.0
2-12Mississippi Valley St. (349.0)SWACH55-51W100%0.0
2-17Alabama St. (333.0)SWACA67-71W100%0.0
2-19Alabama A&M (350.0)SWACA50-60W100%0.0
2-24Alcorn St. (348.0)SWACA89-85L0%0.0
3-1Texas Southern (222.0)SWACH88-90L0%0.0
3-3Prairie View A&M (247.0)SWACH69-77L0%0.0
3-6Jackson St. (330.0)SWACH62-60W100%0.0
3-9Arkansas Pine Bluff (307.0)SWACN71-65L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Southern's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Southern's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Southern.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
SouthernSWAC26.4526.4544.7244.72-2.80-2.80
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC5.855.8537.5037.50-1.46-1.46
Jackson St.SWAC5.705.7033.3333.33-1.90-1.90
Texas SouthernSWAC4.354.3540.6240.62-0.82-0.82
Prairie View A&MSWAC4.264.2641.9441.94-0.69-0.69
Alcorn St.SWAC4.244.2423.0823.08-2.28-2.28
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC4.224.2213.3313.33-3.09-3.09
Alabama St.SWAC4.224.2227.5927.59-1.89-1.89
Grambling St.SWAC4.174.1753.5753.570.300.30
Alabama A&MSWAC4.154.1510.3410.34-3.29-3.29
IowaB101.771.7740.6240.62-0.33-0.33
Tennessee MartinOVC1.761.7628.5728.57-0.75-0.75
IllinoisB101.741.7440.0040.00-0.35-0.35
BaylorB121.721.7253.3353.330.110.11
North Carolina CentralMEAC1.721.7250.0050.000.000.00
TulaneAmer1.701.7043.3343.33-0.23-0.23
MarshallCUSA1.691.6968.7568.750.630.63
Florida A&MMEAC1.641.6425.0025.00-0.82-0.82
UCFAmer1.641.6458.0658.060.260.26
DukeACC1.611.6178.1278.120.910.91
Missouri St.MVC1.611.6151.6151.610.050.05
CincinnatiAmer0.200.2088.2488.240.150.15
Grand CanyonWAC0.180.1865.6265.620.060.06
UABCUSA0.180.1858.0658.060.030.03
SMUAmer0.170.1751.5251.520.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.160.1648.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.160.1616.6716.67-0.10-0.10
Southern IllinoisMVC0.160.1659.3859.380.030.03
East CarolinaAmer0.160.1633.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.160.1663.3363.330.040.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.150.1543.3343.33-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.150.1566.6766.670.050.05
MichiganB100.150.1579.4179.410.090.09
HoustonAmer0.150.1578.7978.790.090.09
UNLVMWC0.150.1560.6160.610.030.03
OregonP120.150.1564.7164.710.040.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.130.1346.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
MarylandB100.130.1358.0658.060.020.02
MercerSC0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.130.1331.0331.03-0.05-0.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
TempleAmer0.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
MinnesotaB100.130.1346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
TulsaAmer0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
HowardMEAC0.130.1325.8125.81-0.06-0.06
IndianaB100.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
OhioMAC0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.120.1275.0075.000.060.06
HawaiiBW0.120.1253.5753.570.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
West VirginiaB120.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
AkronMAC0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.100.1061.7661.760.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
SamfordSC0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
South FloridaAmer0.100.1031.2531.25-0.04-0.04
Wichita St.Amer0.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
NebraskaB100.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.100.1080.0080.000.060.06
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.106.676.67-0.09-0.09
Michigan St.B100.100.1087.8887.880.080.08
Morgan St.MEAC0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
EvansvilleMVC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.100.1084.3884.380.070.07
KansasB120.100.1079.4179.410.060.06
TCUB120.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
North CarolinaACC0.100.1071.4371.430.040.04
UtahP120.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
BYUWCC0.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
LSUSEC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
CreightonBE0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
St. BonaventureA100.080.0878.1278.120.050.05
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0822.2222.22-0.04-0.04
Murray St.OVC0.080.0882.7682.760.050.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.080.0873.3373.330.040.04
DePaulBE0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0815.6215.62-0.05-0.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
RutgersB100.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
ValparaisoMVC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.0783.3383.330.050.05
Penn St.B100.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
ClemsonACC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
SyracuseACC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
North DakotaBSky0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Oregon St.P120.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
PacificWCC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.070.0760.7160.710.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
SeattleWAC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Kansas St.B120.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
LibertyBSth0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
OklahomaB120.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Texas TechB120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
FordhamA100.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
XavierBE0.050.0584.8584.850.040.04
BradleyMVC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
DuquesneA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Miami FLACC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
New MexicoMWC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Notre DameACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
PittsburghACC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
UTSACUSA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
OaklandHorz0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Washington St.P120.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
UMKCWAC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0332.0032.00-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.020.023.333.33-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
ElonCAA0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Green BayHorz0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
North FloridaASun0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
RiceCUSA0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.020.0265.5265.520.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.020.0293.9493.940.020.02