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Through games of Nov 27, 2014.


Southern

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:302.0
Current RPI:321
Expected SOS:334
Current SOS:212
Current Record:0-4
Expected Record:10-18
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-9
Current OOC Record:0-4
Expected OOC Record:0-10
Expected OOC RPI:297
Expected OOC SOS:36



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-11175.80.05%
16-12189.10.25%
15-13209.41.08%
14-14230.92.60%
13-15251.87.00%
12-16272.011.50%
11-17290.416.81%
10-18306.218.34%
9-19319.717.73%
8-20330.412.97%
7-21337.96.66%
6-22343.43.32%
5-23346.71.22%
4-24349.00.39%
3-25350.00.05%
2-26350.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southern.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Louisiana Tech (75.1)CUSAH76-85L0%0.0
11-20Mississippi (100.2)SECA69-38L0%0.0
11-22Middle Tennessee (167.0)CUSAA66-48L0%0.0
11-25Tulane (234.3)AmerA74-59L0%0.0
11-28Northern Arizona (205.4)BSkyN0-026%-7.8
12-10Minnesota (89.7)B10A0-03%-22.5
12-14Iowa St. (54.5)B12A0-02%-25.0
12-20Wyoming (88.0)MWCA0-04%-21.0
12-22Baylor (14.4)B12A0-01%-29.2
12-29Hawaii (196.9)BWA0-014%-12.7
1-3Prairie View A&M (283.3)SWACH0-056%1.7
1-5Texas Southern (240.5)SWACH0-050%-0.1
1-10Grambling St. (342.8)SWACA0-061%3.5
1-12Jackson St. (285.7)SWACA0-033%-5.3
1-17Arkansas Pine Bluff (317.3)SWACH0-069%5.9
1-19Mississippi Valley St. (348.3)SWACH0-085%12.5
1-24Alabama A&M (333.4)SWACA0-047%-1.0
1-26Alabama St. (222.7)SWACA0-018%-10.8
1-31Alcorn St. (312.3)SWACA0-042%-2.4
2-7Grambling St. (342.8)SWACH0-081%10.7
2-9Jackson St. (285.7)SWACH0-056%1.9
2-14Arkansas Pine Bluff (317.3)SWACA0-046%-1.3
2-16Mississippi Valley St. (348.3)SWACA0-067%5.3
2-21Alabama A&M (333.4)SWACH0-070%6.2
2-23Alabama St. (222.7)SWACH0-038%-3.6
2-28Alcorn St. (312.3)SWACH0-065%4.8
3-5Prairie View A&M (283.3)SWACA0-032%-5.5
3-7Texas Southern (240.5)SWACA0-027%-7.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Southern's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Southern's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Southern.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
SouthernSWAC31.9826.450.0038.80-31.98-5.92
Jackson St.SWAC0.004.6620.0042.54-0.00-0.70
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC2.084.660.0014.86-2.08-3.27
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.004.6316.6731.25-0.00-1.74
Texas SouthernSWAC0.004.630.0039.80-0.00-0.94
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.004.620.0039.38-0.00-0.98
Alcorn St.SWAC0.004.580.0032.91-0.00-1.57
Alabama A&MSWAC0.004.580.0031.36-0.00-1.71
Grambling St.SWAC0.004.580.0020.34-0.00-2.71
Alabama St.SWAC0.004.570.0062.29-0.001.12
BaylorB120.001.97100.0074.270.000.95
Iowa St.B120.001.9175.0059.860.000.38
Louisiana TechCUSA12.501.9075.0071.456.250.82
TulaneAmer12.501.9050.0037.700.00-0.47
Middle TennesseeCUSA12.501.8850.0048.390.00-0.06
Northern ArizonaBSky3.651.8520.0049.47-2.19-0.02
HawaiiBW0.001.8471.4354.880.000.18
MississippiSEC12.501.8266.6751.434.170.05
MinnesotaB100.001.7950.0053.520.000.13
WyomingMWC0.001.79100.0068.540.000.66
TCUB120.000.34100.0058.380.000.06
Texas TechB120.000.2475.0045.180.00-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.22100.0060.400.000.04
TexasB120.000.19100.0079.050.000.11
North TexasCUSA0.000.1875.0039.180.00-0.04
HoustonAmer0.000.1866.6760.700.000.04
Kansas St.B120.000.1850.0046.120.00-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.1866.6751.730.000.01
UABCUSA0.000.1820.0037.96-0.00-0.04
Murray St.OVC2.080.1733.3367.57-0.690.06
North DakotaBSky0.000.1633.3351.25-0.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.16100.0079.690.000.10
IowaB100.000.1666.6765.220.000.05
Air ForceMWC0.000.1633.3345.53-0.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.16100.0069.210.000.06
MemphisAmer0.000.1633.3360.46-0.000.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.15100.0045.140.00-0.01
IndianaB100.000.1580.0056.380.000.02
Michigan St.B100.000.1580.0074.350.000.07
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1425.0031.20-0.00-0.05
PurdueB100.000.1383.3368.400.000.05
Oregon St.P120.000.1350.0042.750.00-0.02
RiceCUSA0.000.1225.0028.63-0.00-0.05
OhioMAC0.000.1266.6752.280.000.01
KansasB120.000.1275.0062.620.000.03
OklahomaB120.000.1280.0070.540.000.05
UTSACUSA0.000.1233.3330.52-0.00-0.05
West VirginiaB120.000.12100.0068.860.000.05
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.1240.0045.07-0.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1250.0070.920.000.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.1225.0047.85-0.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.1250.0065.590.000.04
South FloridaAmer0.000.1275.0055.470.000.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.120.0016.54-0.00-0.08
AuburnSEC0.000.1260.0037.710.00-0.03
FloridaSEC0.000.1260.0062.400.000.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.120.0067.79-0.000.04
WashingtonP120.000.10100.0057.930.000.02
DaytonA100.000.1075.0071.300.000.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1025.0043.27-0.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.1080.0070.550.000.04
HamptonMEAC0.000.1016.6745.35-0.00-0.01
TroySB1.560.100.0044.27-1.56-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.0975.0052.330.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0925.0068.20-0.000.03
CincinnatiAmer0.000.09100.0062.000.000.02
Fresno St.MWC0.000.090.0023.13-0.00-0.05
Montana St.BSky0.000.090.0020.51-0.00-0.05
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.090.0051.90-0.000.00
FIUCUSA0.000.0933.3337.71-0.00-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.090.0039.39-0.00-0.02
TempleAmer1.250.0960.0050.480.250.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0920.0038.45-0.00-0.02
High PointBSth0.000.0975.0056.960.000.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0983.3338.760.00-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0950.0052.250.000.00
AkronMAC0.000.0960.0066.680.000.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0980.0074.820.000.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0950.0042.050.00-0.01
DrakeMVC0.000.0925.0023.91-0.00-0.05
LamarSlnd0.000.0925.0036.27-0.00-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0925.0052.42-0.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.09100.0064.840.000.03
TennesseeSEC0.000.0966.6746.480.00-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0775.0069.010.000.03
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0750.0032.470.00-0.03
UtahP120.000.0775.0073.700.000.03
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0725.0026.73-0.00-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.000.0733.3346.51-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.07100.0059.990.000.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0775.0069.240.000.03
Georgia TechACC0.000.0775.0044.850.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0760.0039.990.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0783.3369.110.000.03
Virginia TechACC0.000.0760.0035.980.00-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.000.0733.3334.34-0.00-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0740.0037.90-0.00-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0733.3337.74-0.00-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0733.3329.78-0.00-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0740.0054.55-0.000.01
UC DavisBW0.000.07100.0052.620.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.000.0733.3366.19-0.000.02
UC RiversideBW0.000.070.0023.83-0.00-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0733.3364.43-0.000.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0625.0035.86-0.00-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0065.020.000.02
Texas St.SB0.000.0666.6748.060.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.000.06100.0069.610.000.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0675.0069.780.000.02
Idaho St.BSky0.000.060.0023.57-0.00-0.03
NevadaMWC0.000.0625.0043.15-0.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0660.0056.430.000.01
Penn St.B100.000.0683.3348.340.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.000.06100.0057.180.000.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0650.0045.170.00-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0683.3384.390.000.04
San Jose St.MWC0.000.060.0017.77-0.00-0.04
St. John'sBE0.000.06100.0056.410.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0660.0055.660.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.0666.6741.780.00-0.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0675.0051.700.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.0660.0055.000.000.01
Wake ForestACC2.080.0666.6751.440.690.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.0625.0052.78-0.000.00
WisconsinB100.000.06100.0087.590.000.05
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0660.0067.380.000.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0650.0045.460.00-0.01
MarylandB100.000.06100.0071.310.000.03
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0680.0074.880.000.03
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0675.0068.660.000.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.06100.0053.730.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.0680.0058.550.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0660.0056.890.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.0660.0056.260.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0650.0047.680.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0633.3352.29-0.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0055.370.000.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.06100.0088.610.000.04
HofstraCAA0.000.0660.0068.830.000.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.060.0025.17-0.00-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.000.0675.0052.070.000.00
StanfordP120.000.0680.0071.340.000.02
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0675.0056.110.000.01
BYUWCC0.000.0350.0067.630.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0325.0039.20-0.00-0.01
MaristMAAC0.000.0320.0034.06-0.00-0.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0360.0057.910.000.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0350.0059.430.000.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0380.0075.550.000.02
Boise St.MWC0.000.0380.0063.470.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0340.0054.85-0.000.00
ColoradoP120.000.0375.0060.510.000.01
DenverSum0.000.0350.0060.380.000.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0019.02-0.00-0.02
FurmanSC0.000.0325.0027.48-0.00-0.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0333.3348.86-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.000.03100.0067.700.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0078.390.000.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0350.0025.280.00-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0047.66-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.000.0375.0066.060.000.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0333.3351.33-0.000.00
Ohio St.B100.000.03100.0074.590.000.02
RutgersB100.000.0350.0024.450.00-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0071.260.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0340.0033.19-0.00-0.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0325.0045.33-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.030.0040.20-0.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0320.0035.95-0.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.030.0029.60-0.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0025.08-0.00-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0350.0037.530.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0340.0060.45-0.000.01
UMBCAE0.000.030.0027.48-0.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0366.6747.100.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0340.0047.99-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.000.03100.0078.730.000.02
AmericanPat1.250.0366.6759.540.420.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0320.0039.02-0.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth1.560.0366.6753.030.520.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0333.3363.17-0.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0061.500.000.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0360.0068.290.000.01
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0089.470.000.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0340.0036.39-0.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC1.250.0333.3358.80-0.420.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.030.0030.59-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.030.0050.53-0.000.00
OaklandHorz0.000.0316.6726.26-0.00-0.01
OregonP120.000.0360.0063.290.000.01
PresbyterianBSth1.250.030.0023.49-1.25-0.02
SamfordSC0.000.0333.3335.99-0.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0380.0067.950.000.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0320.0042.43-0.00-0.00