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Through games of Jan 20, 2018.


Southern

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:302.3
Current RPI:317
Expected SOS:344
Current SOS:319
Current Record:5-13
Expected Record:12-17
Current Conf Record:3-4
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-9
Current OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC RPI:276
Expected OOC SOS:107



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-13236.10.42%
15-14251.93.06%
14-15269.110.39%
13-16286.621.14%
12-17302.826.10%
11-18317.321.06%
10-19329.111.98%
9-20337.54.53%
8-21342.71.11%
7-22347.20.19%
6-23349.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southern.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Illinois (159.6)B10A102-55L0%0.0
11-13Marshall (101.3)CUSAA83-74L0%0.0
11-15Missouri St. (58.3)MVCA86-58L0%0.0
11-17Duke (3.1)ACCA78-61L0%0.0
11-19North Carolina Central (268.1)MEACA80-67L0%0.0
11-22Tennessee Martin (301.2)OVCH69-66W100%0.0
12-6Tulane (107.4)AmerA95-76L0%0.0
12-9UCF (67.3)AmerA76-60L0%0.0
12-10Iowa (157.0)B10A91-60L0%0.0
12-14Florida A&M (340.4)MEACH68-50W100%0.0
12-20Baylor (58.5)B12A80-60L0%0.0
1-1Texas Southern (208.4)SWACA78-66L0%0.0
1-3Prairie View A&M (267.9)SWACA78-74L0%0.0
1-6Grambling St. (286.7)SWACH80-69W100%0.0
1-8Jackson St. (292.8)SWACH61-65L0%0.0
1-13Arkansas Pine Bluff (307.8)SWACA78-76L0%0.0
1-15Mississippi Valley St. (349.0)SWACA70-78W100%0.0
1-20Alabama St. (341.1)SWACH63-61W100%0.0
1-22Alabama A&M (348.6)SWACH0-087%12.4
1-27Alcorn St. (342.9)SWACH0-076%7.8
2-3Grambling St. (286.7)SWACA0-043%-2.0
2-5Jackson St. (292.8)SWACA0-047%-0.9
2-10Arkansas Pine Bluff (307.8)SWACH0-071%6.3
2-12Mississippi Valley St. (349.0)SWACH0-086%12.1
2-17Alabama St. (341.1)SWACA0-060%2.8
2-19Alabama A&M (348.6)SWACA0-070%6.0
2-24Alcorn St. (342.9)SWACA0-055%1.4
3-1Texas Southern (208.4)SWACH0-037%-3.6
3-3Prairie View A&M (267.9)SWACH0-056%1.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Southern's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Southern's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Southern.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
SouthernSWAC26.3226.3530.6544.63-10.19-2.83
Alcorn St.SWAC0.594.4112.5024.73-0.44-2.23
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC3.074.4026.3234.63-1.46-1.35
Texas SouthernSWAC3.154.3916.6741.70-2.10-0.73
Alabama St.SWAC3.144.3917.6524.60-2.03-2.23
Grambling St.SWAC3.144.3938.8945.23-0.70-0.42
Alabama A&MSWAC0.374.3710.5316.42-0.29-2.93
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC3.004.370.0010.91-3.00-3.41
Prairie View A&MSWAC3.074.3716.6737.22-2.05-1.12
Jackson St.SWAC3.074.3635.2940.98-0.90-0.79
IowaB103.001.8745.0042.17-0.30-0.29
Tennessee MartinOVC3.081.8727.7832.64-1.37-0.65
BaylorB122.851.8458.8254.580.500.17
IllinoisB103.081.8444.4442.35-0.34-0.28
North Carolina CentralMEAC3.001.8440.0052.33-0.600.09
TulaneAmer2.781.8261.1156.450.620.23
MarshallCUSA3.011.8166.6762.391.000.45
Florida A&MMEAC2.781.7610.5320.28-2.19-1.04
UCFAmer2.781.7566.6759.530.930.33
DukeACC2.781.7288.8984.702.161.20
Missouri St.MVC2.781.7268.4267.341.020.60
Grand CanyonWAC0.380.2070.0071.230.150.09
CincinnatiAmer0.220.2089.4785.520.170.14
UABCUSA0.210.2061.1164.130.050.06
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.290.1752.9455.040.020.02
SMUAmer0.290.1770.0070.630.120.07
OregonP120.220.1765.0063.830.070.05
UNLVMWC0.290.1773.6865.280.140.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.1515.7920.92-0.05-0.09
Iowa St.B120.140.1561.1147.260.03-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.150.1527.7834.50-0.07-0.05
Louisiana TechCUSA0.230.1552.6355.290.010.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.140.1550.0052.440.000.01
Austin PeayOVC0.150.1444.4445.98-0.02-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.220.1431.5832.72-0.08-0.05
ToledoMAC0.220.1466.6767.690.070.05
East CarolinaAmer0.150.1442.1132.48-0.02-0.05
HoustonAmer0.150.1478.9572.990.080.07
TulsaAmer0.150.1455.0053.290.010.01
IndianaB100.140.1457.8950.680.020.00
Georgia St.SB0.150.1466.6765.530.050.04
MichiganB100.140.1475.0070.270.070.06
MinnesotaB100.070.1463.6457.640.020.02
OhioMAC0.150.1447.0648.44-0.01-0.00
Ohio St.B100.140.1480.9576.520.090.07
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.170.1242.1143.50-0.03-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.070.1247.0652.51-0.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.160.120.009.15-0.16-0.10
HowardMEAC0.160.1210.5327.31-0.12-0.05
EvansvilleMVC0.230.1252.6347.360.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.150.1226.6729.04-0.07-0.05
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.1252.6350.250.000.00
MarylandB100.220.1270.0065.320.090.04
MercerSC0.220.1244.4454.89-0.020.01
ChattanoogaSC0.220.1222.2228.59-0.12-0.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.220.1272.2258.940.100.02
MemphisAmer0.150.1165.0058.490.040.02
South FloridaAmer0.070.1135.0026.14-0.02-0.05
TempleAmer0.150.1152.6351.730.010.00
Wichita St.Amer0.080.1178.9577.360.040.06
AkronMAC0.220.1147.0644.91-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.150.1166.6759.780.050.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.210.1172.2272.970.090.05
WisconsinB100.150.1150.0046.260.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.140.1152.6343.120.01-0.02
KansasB120.150.1184.2179.740.100.07
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.140.1177.7871.650.080.05
Michigan St.B100.070.1185.0083.180.050.08
Oklahoma St.B120.150.1168.4254.090.060.01
TCUB120.150.1173.6865.590.070.04
TexasB120.220.1163.1657.620.060.02
BYUWCC0.150.1180.9576.230.090.06
SamfordSC0.070.1127.7832.66-0.03-0.04
UtahP120.150.1161.1158.950.030.02
HawaiiBW0.140.1168.7563.960.050.03
LSUSEC0.070.0961.1153.160.020.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.0945.0049.27-0.01-0.00
CreightonBE0.080.0975.0070.690.040.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0955.5656.710.000.01
HamptonMEAC0.070.0920.0041.76-0.04-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0927.7831.67-0.03-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.150.0923.5328.70-0.08-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.160.0929.4139.62-0.06-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.150.0961.1158.750.030.02
Murray St.OVC0.140.0970.5975.930.060.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0970.0068.220.030.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.150.0935.2940.48-0.04-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.150.0952.6347.390.01-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.070.0944.4446.64-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.150.0984.2178.170.100.05
Western KentuckyCUSA0.140.0968.4270.810.050.04
DrakeMVC0.140.0955.0049.070.01-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.210.0944.4450.31-0.020.00
RutgersB100.070.0957.8947.140.01-0.00
South DakotaSum0.150.0973.6872.360.070.04
AlabamaSEC0.070.0868.4258.990.030.02
DePaulBE0.070.0842.1134.32-0.01-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.150.0883.3384.230.100.06
North CarolinaACC0.070.0880.0075.050.040.04
Penn St.B100.070.0861.9055.770.020.01
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0841.1838.46-0.01-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.150.0844.4441.15-0.02-0.01
ClemsonACC0.070.0884.2173.210.050.04
SyracuseACC0.070.0868.4261.270.030.02
Virginia TechACC0.070.0868.4257.780.020.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0636.8435.550.00-0.02
YaleIvy0.000.0641.1847.510.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.160.069.5217.94-0.13-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.0618.7536.76-0.05-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0662.5058.700.020.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.070.0629.4133.94-0.03-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0625.0028.02-0.04-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0636.8432.79-0.02-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.080.0666.6768.700.030.02
BradleyMVC0.000.0665.0057.870.000.01
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0623.5325.63-0.04-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.140.0645.0041.34-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0637.5037.68-0.02-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0647.3745.87-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0644.4446.10-0.01-0.00
Kansas St.B120.000.0673.6862.720.000.01
LibertyBSth0.080.0652.9457.320.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0672.2274.700.030.03
MissouriSEC0.150.0666.6763.200.050.02
OklahomaB120.000.0677.7867.900.000.02
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0678.9576.760.040.03
SeattleWAC0.070.0657.8954.500.010.01
Texas TechB120.080.0678.9571.810.040.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.070.0645.0045.02-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoMVC0.140.0650.0051.360.000.00
VCUA100.070.0660.0059.690.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.150.0664.7159.980.040.01
WinthropBSth0.080.0646.6758.78-0.010.01
XavierBE0.150.0685.7180.080.110.03
FloridaSEC0.070.0673.6871.550.030.02
Florida St.ACC0.150.0673.6869.610.070.02
FordhamA100.140.0631.5829.06-0.05-0.02
NorthwesternB100.070.0655.0050.370.010.00
PurdueB100.070.0690.4888.380.050.04
St. John'sBE0.070.0647.3742.18-0.00-0.01
DuquesneA100.070.0670.0058.100.030.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0668.4254.090.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.070.0680.9583.260.050.04
Kent St.MAC0.070.0644.4444.86-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.140.0676.4769.020.080.02
New MexicoMWC0.070.0645.0048.56-0.01-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0657.1453.220.000.00
OaklandHorz0.070.0661.9065.160.020.02
PittsburghACC0.150.0640.0030.87-0.03-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0668.4263.980.030.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.070.0670.5969.610.030.02
Utah St.MWC0.070.0645.0045.50-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.070.0650.0042.180.00-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0638.8935.350.00-0.02
WyomingMWC0.070.0661.1156.830.020.01
Air ForceMWC0.070.0537.5031.76-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0560.0060.340.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0566.6763.420.020.01
North DakotaBSky0.070.0529.4134.76-0.03-0.02
Oregon St.P120.070.0557.8950.810.010.00
PacificWCC0.070.0545.0044.46-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.070.0533.3332.96-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.070.0557.8950.210.010.00
TroySB0.070.0535.2942.76-0.02-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.070.0556.2557.400.010.01
George MasonA100.090.0345.0041.35-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.090.0342.1145.97-0.01-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.090.0328.5731.27-0.04-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0327.7831.12-0.03-0.01
BelmontOVC0.070.0371.4374.650.030.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0357.8953.190.000.00
UMKCWAC0.070.0321.0524.71-0.04-0.02
FIUCUSA0.000.0335.2935.570.00-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0341.1843.41-0.01-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0366.6765.360.020.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.070.0340.0042.57-0.01-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.070.0317.6517.23-0.05-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0347.3748.17-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.070.0347.0641.45-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0350.0051.480.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0330.0032.53-0.03-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0311.1117.690.00-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0343.7549.10-0.01-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.070.0350.0045.900.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.070.0333.3336.92-0.02-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.037.6923.28-0.07-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.0333.3334.110.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0341.1839.650.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.070.0368.4269.240.030.01
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0368.4255.060.030.00
Chicago St.WAC0.070.030.003.12-0.07-0.03
ColoradoP120.070.0360.0053.730.010.00
ElonCAA0.070.0352.6351.090.000.00
FurmanSC0.070.0366.6768.500.020.01
Green BayHorz0.070.0325.0027.94-0.03-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0383.3381.350.040.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.0377.7869.360.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0368.4257.770.030.00
North FloridaASun0.070.0331.5835.15-0.03-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0341.1839.13-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0363.1661.050.000.01
Portland St.BSky0.070.0358.8263.210.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.070.0337.5033.78-0.02-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0352.9459.250.000.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0380.0078.860.040.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.070.0366.6766.010.020.01
VirginiaACC0.000.0394.4485.440.000.02