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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Southern

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:223.0
Current RPI:223
Expected SOS:300
Current SOS:300
Current Record:15-17
Expected Record:15-17
Current Conf Record:15-6
Expected Conf Record:15-6
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:15-4
Current OOC Record:0-11
Expected OOC Record:0-11
Expected OOC RPI:282
Expected OOC SOS:14



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-17223.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southern.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Louisiana Tech (58.0)CUSAH76-85L0%0.0
11-20Mississippi (60.0)SECA69-38L0%0.0
11-22Middle Tennessee (138.0)CUSAA66-48L0%0.0
11-25Tulane (214.0)AmerA74-59L0%0.0
11-28Northern Arizona (166.0)BSkyN70-63L0%0.0
11-29Eastern Illinois (173.0)OVCN43-54L0%0.0
12-10Minnesota (98.0)B10A85-57L0%0.0
12-14Iowa St. (9.0)B12A88-78L0%0.0
12-20Wyoming (71.0)MWCA57-39L0%0.0
12-22Baylor (10.0)B12A70-66L0%0.0
12-29Hawaii (152.0)BWA71-57L0%0.0
1-3Prairie View A&M (262.0)SWACH68-56W100%0.0
1-5Texas Southern (120.0)SWACH58-59L0%0.0
1-10Grambling St. (351.0)SWACA53-59W100%0.0
1-12Jackson St. (322.0)SWACA52-60W100%0.0
1-17Arkansas Pine Bluff (302.0)SWACH70-60W100%0.0
1-19Mississippi Valley St. (345.0)SWACH79-55W100%0.0
1-24Alabama A&M (330.0)SWACA58-65W100%0.0
1-26Alabama St. (258.0)SWACA63-59L0%0.0
1-31Alcorn St. (348.0)SWACA56-65W100%0.0
2-7Grambling St. (351.0)SWACH58-50W100%0.0
2-9Jackson St. (322.0)SWACH52-62L0%0.0
2-14Arkansas Pine Bluff (302.0)SWACA56-74W100%0.0
2-16Mississippi Valley St. (345.0)SWACA56-68W100%0.0
2-21Alabama A&M (330.0)SWACH72-63W100%0.0
2-23Alabama St. (258.0)SWACH54-56L0%0.0
2-28Alcorn St. (348.0)SWACH71-63W100%0.0
3-5Prairie View A&M (262.0)SWACA73-77W100%0.0
3-7Texas Southern (120.0)SWACA88-78L0%0.0
3-12Alabama A&M (330.0)SWACN64-60W100%0.0
3-13Alabama St. (258.0)SWACN66-68W100%0.0
3-14Texas Southern (120.0)SWACA62-58L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Southern's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Southern's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Southern.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
SouthernSWAC26.6026.6052.0352.031.081.08
Texas SouthernSWAC5.765.7661.2961.291.301.30
Alabama St.SWAC5.655.6562.5062.501.411.41
Alabama A&MSWAC5.615.6132.0032.00-2.02-2.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC4.284.2846.6746.67-0.29-0.29
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC4.254.2520.0020.00-2.55-2.55
Alcorn St.SWAC4.244.2417.8617.86-2.72-2.72
Jackson St.SWAC4.224.2233.3333.33-1.41-1.41
Grambling St.SWAC4.154.150.000.00-4.15-4.15
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC4.144.1440.0040.00-0.83-0.83
BaylorB121.731.7370.9770.970.720.72
HawaiiBW1.661.6659.3859.380.310.31
Iowa St.B121.661.6675.0075.000.830.83
TulaneAmer1.661.6644.8344.83-0.17-0.17
Louisiana TechCUSA1.661.6674.1974.190.800.80
Middle TennesseeCUSA1.641.6451.5251.520.050.05
Northern ArizonaBSky1.611.6154.8454.840.160.16
MississippiSEC1.591.5961.2961.290.360.36
Eastern IllinoisOVC1.561.5650.0050.000.000.00
MinnesotaB101.561.5651.6151.610.050.05
WyomingMWC1.561.5670.9770.970.660.66
TCUB120.280.2854.5554.550.030.03
Murray St.OVC0.210.2183.3383.330.140.14
Jacksonville St.OVC0.200.2034.4834.48-0.06-0.06
Texas TechB120.190.1940.6240.62-0.04-0.04
UABCUSA0.190.1954.5554.550.020.02
HoustonAmer0.180.1840.6240.62-0.03-0.03
TexasB120.170.1760.6160.610.040.04
Oklahoma St.B120.170.1756.6756.670.020.02
Kansas St.B120.170.1746.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.160.1639.2939.29-0.03-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.160.1621.4321.43-0.09-0.09
ArkansasSEC0.160.1676.4776.470.080.08
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.150.1575.8675.860.080.08
UTEPCUSA0.150.1568.7568.750.060.06
North TexasCUSA0.150.1541.3841.38-0.03-0.03
KansasB120.140.1476.4776.470.080.08
Southern MissCUSA0.140.1425.9325.93-0.07-0.07
IndianaB100.140.1460.6160.610.030.03
Michigan St.B100.140.1467.6567.650.050.05
Air ForceMWC0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
MemphisAmer0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
UC DavisBW0.120.1279.3179.310.070.07
IowaB100.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
RiceCUSA0.120.1234.4834.48-0.04-0.04
West VirginiaB120.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
OklahomaB120.120.1268.7568.750.040.04
SMUAmer0.120.1281.2581.250.070.07
FloridaSEC0.120.1248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
AuburnSEC0.120.1241.1841.18-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.110.1175.7675.760.060.06
Oregon St.P120.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
PurdueB100.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
OhioMAC0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Northern ColoradoBSky0.100.1046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.100.1032.1432.14-0.03-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
UTSACUSA0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.090.0974.1974.190.050.05
TennesseeSEC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
LamarSlnd0.090.0942.3142.31-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
UtahP120.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
Western IllinoisSum0.090.0923.0823.08-0.05-0.05
Ball St.MAC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
WashingtonP120.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Georgia TechACC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.080.0840.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0838.4638.46-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0821.4321.43-0.04-0.04
BelmontOVC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
CaliforniaP120.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
TroySB0.080.0829.6329.63-0.03-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
CreightonBE0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.070.0720.6920.69-0.04-0.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
NorthwesternB100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0786.6786.670.050.05
Utah St.MWC0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
High PointBSth0.070.0767.8667.860.030.03
NebraskaB100.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.070.0758.8258.820.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0725.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0777.4277.420.040.04
GonzagaWCC0.070.0793.9493.940.060.06
George WashingtonA100.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Notre DameACC0.060.0685.2985.290.040.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.02-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
TulsaAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
BrownIvy0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0571.4371.430.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
HofstraCAA0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
IllinoisB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
LSUSEC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
MontanaBSky0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
NevadaMWC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Ohio St.B100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Penn St.B100.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
RutgersB100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0572.4172.410.020.02
San Jose St.MWC0.050.050.000.00-0.05-0.05
St. BonaventureA100.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
StanfordP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Texas St.SB0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
AlabamaSEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
ColoradoP120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
MarshallCUSA0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
UC RiversideBW0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.020.0259.2659.260.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
DenverSum0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.020.026.906.90-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
IdahoBSky0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.020.02100.00100.000.020.02
LouisvilleACC0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.020.0226.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.020.0255.5655.560.000.00
OregonP120.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
SamfordSC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
ToledoMAC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
UMBCAE0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
BYUWCC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
MaristMAAC0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.020.0287.1087.100.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01