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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Southern

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:171.0
Current RPI:171
Expected SOS:262
Current SOS:262
Current Record:16-13
Expected Record:16-13
Current Conf Record:15-4
Expected Conf Record:15-4
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:15-5
Current OOC Record:1-9
Expected OOC Record:1-9
Expected OOC RPI:177
Expected OOC SOS:6



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-13171.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southern.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Marquette (92.0)BEA63-56L0%0.0
11-10Middle Tennessee (64.0)CUSAA78-75L0%0.0
11-13Tulane (223.0)CUSAH73-79L0%0.0
11-16North Florida (189.0)ASunA78-87W100%0.0
11-18Florida (1.0)SECA67-53L0%0.0
11-22Arkansas Little Rock (186.0)SBH82-85L0%0.0
12-3Denver (139.0)SumA75-74L0%0.0
12-7Louisiana Tech (62.0)CUSAA69-50L0%0.0
12-19Arizona (2.0)P12A69-43L0%0.0
12-22Baylor (30.0)B12A81-56L0%0.0
1-4Prairie View A&M (304.0)SWACA57-60W100%0.0
1-6Texas Southern (239.0)SWACA71-79W100%0.0
1-11Grambling St. (348.0)SWACH73-49W100%0.0
1-13Jackson St. (296.0)SWACH60-36W100%0.0
1-18Arkansas Pine Bluff (264.0)SWACA56-60W100%0.0
1-22Mississippi Valley St. (342.0)SWACA72-64L0%0.0
1-25Alabama A&M (271.0)SWACH66-52W100%0.0
1-27Alabama St. (254.0)SWACH68-55W100%0.0
2-1Alcorn St. (314.0)SWACH62-54W100%0.0
2-8Grambling St. (348.0)SWACA54-104W100%0.0
2-10Jackson St. (296.0)SWACA63-68W100%0.0
2-15Arkansas Pine Bluff (264.0)SWACH58-64L0%0.0
2-17Mississippi Valley St. (342.0)SWACH83-74W100%0.0
2-22Alabama A&M (271.0)SWACA62-70W100%0.0
2-24Alabama St. (254.0)SWACA64-87W100%0.0
3-1Alcorn St. (314.0)SWACA54-67W100%0.0
3-6Prairie View A&M (304.0)SWACH91-59W100%0.0
3-8Texas Southern (239.0)SWACH64-67L0%0.0
3-12Prairie View A&M (304.0)SWACN46-64L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Southern's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Southern's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Southern.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
SouthernSWAC26.4626.4659.5759.575.075.07
Prairie View A&MSWAC6.306.3030.0030.00-2.52-2.52
Texas SouthernSWAC4.664.6656.6756.670.620.62
Grambling St.SWAC4.604.6016.0016.00-3.13-3.13
Alabama St.SWAC4.584.5861.5461.541.061.06
Alabama A&MSWAC4.574.5746.1546.15-0.35-0.35
Jackson St.SWAC4.564.5637.9337.93-1.10-1.10
Alcorn St.SWAC4.534.5334.6234.62-1.39-1.39
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC4.524.5218.5218.52-2.84-2.84
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC4.504.5037.0437.04-1.17-1.17
TulaneCUSA1.901.9048.3948.39-0.06-0.06
Arkansas Little RockSB1.871.8741.3841.38-0.32-0.32
Middle TennesseeCUSA1.861.8670.0070.000.740.74
Louisiana TechCUSA1.831.8378.1278.121.031.03
FloridaSEC1.811.8193.9493.941.591.59
North FloridaASun1.811.8148.2848.28-0.06-0.06
MarquetteBE1.791.7951.6151.610.060.06
DenverSum1.791.7948.2848.28-0.06-0.06
ArizonaP121.721.7287.8887.881.311.31
BaylorB121.721.7265.6265.620.540.54
TulsaCUSA0.240.2463.6463.640.070.07
Texas A&MSEC0.220.2253.1253.120.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.220.2242.4242.42-0.03-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.220.2280.6580.650.130.13
Jacksonville St.OVC0.210.2127.5927.59-0.10-0.10
TroySB0.210.2131.0331.03-0.08-0.08
Oklahoma St.B120.200.2063.6463.640.050.05
TCUB120.200.2024.1424.14-0.10-0.10
Western IllinoisSum0.180.1825.9325.93-0.09-0.09
CreightonBE0.170.1778.7978.790.100.10
UABCUSA0.170.1755.1755.170.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.170.1764.5264.520.050.05
ColoradoP120.160.1667.6567.650.060.06
MercerASun0.150.1574.1974.190.070.07
Arkansas St.SB0.140.1456.6756.670.020.02
Arizona St.P120.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
Western MichiganMAC0.140.1470.9770.970.060.06
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.140.1468.9768.970.050.05
FIUCUSA0.130.1346.4346.43-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.130.1363.6463.640.040.04
OklahomaB120.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
Texas TechB120.130.1343.7543.75-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.130.1378.7978.790.080.08
UCLAP120.130.1376.4776.470.070.07
Missouri St.MVC0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
EvansvilleMVC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
DePaulBE0.120.1236.3636.36-0.03-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.120.1235.7135.71-0.03-0.03
MississippiSEC0.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
WashingtonP120.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
AuburnSEC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
MemphisAmer0.110.1170.9770.970.050.05
UTEPCUSA0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.110.1116.6716.67-0.07-0.07
Colorado St.MWC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
RiceCUSA0.110.1117.8617.86-0.07-0.07
New Mexico St.WAC0.100.1073.5373.530.050.05
KentuckySEC0.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.090.0913.7913.79-0.06-0.06
New MexicoMWC0.090.0981.8281.820.060.06
Saint Mary'sWCC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.090.0978.5778.570.050.05
South DakotaSum0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.090.0914.2914.29-0.06-0.06
South AlabamaSB0.090.0928.5728.57-0.04-0.04
Washington St.P120.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
IUPUISum0.080.0810.3410.34-0.07-0.07
Northern KentuckyASun0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Texas St.SB0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
WyomingMWC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0834.6234.62-0.03-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaCUSA0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
MarshallCUSA0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
UTSACUSA0.080.0822.2222.22-0.04-0.04
Cal St. FullertonBW0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
XavierBE0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Kansas St.B120.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
BYUWCC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Iowa St.B120.080.0878.7978.790.050.05
Northern ColoradoBSky0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
TexasB120.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
KansasB120.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0841.1841.18-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
UtahP120.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
BradleyMVC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0670.9770.970.030.03
HoustonAmer0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
IllinoisB100.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
OhioMAC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
IowaB100.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
East Tennessee St.ASun0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
IPFWSum0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
LipscombASun0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
StetsonASun0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckySB0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
BelmontOVC0.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
Ohio St.B100.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
ButlerBE0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
LehighPat0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
TempleAmer0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
VillanovaBE0.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
MissouriSEC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
OregonP120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
HarvardIvy0.030.0386.2186.210.020.02
IndianaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Michigan St.B100.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
AkronMAC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
MaineAE0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.030.0359.2659.260.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
ColgatePat0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
NJITind0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0324.0024.00-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
UICHorz0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSlnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
SyracuseACC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
DrexelCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
DukeACC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
MichiganB100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
UNLVMWC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
USCP120.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00