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Through games of Jan 24, 2015.


Southern

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:242.7
Current RPI:245
Expected SOS:311
Current SOS:213
Current Record:6-12
Expected Record:13-16
Current Conf Record:6-1
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-4
Current OOC Record:0-11
Expected OOC Record:0-11
Expected OOC RPI:285
Expected OOC SOS:14



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-12180.30.45%
16-13195.63.66%
15-14212.413.34%
14-15229.426.03%
13-16246.727.91%
12-17264.418.16%
11-18281.38.17%
10-19296.62.00%
9-20308.40.22%
8-21316.20.05%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southern.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Louisiana Tech (78.9)CUSAH76-85L0%0.0
11-20Mississippi (52.3)SECA69-38L0%0.0
11-22Middle Tennessee (146.4)CUSAA66-48L0%0.0
11-25Tulane (157.0)AmerA74-59L0%0.0
11-28Northern Arizona (213.7)BSkyN70-63L0%0.0
11-29Eastern Illinois (151.1)OVCN43-54L0%0.0
12-10Minnesota (80.2)B10A85-57L0%0.0
12-14Iowa St. (27.6)B12A88-78L0%0.0
12-20Wyoming (72.8)MWCA57-39L0%0.0
12-22Baylor (15.3)B12A70-66L0%0.0
12-29Hawaii (190.4)BWA71-57L0%0.0
1-3Prairie View A&M (293.2)SWACH68-56W100%0.0
1-5Texas Southern (143.6)SWACH58-59L0%0.0
1-10Grambling St. (349.1)SWACA53-59W100%0.0
1-12Jackson St. (308.0)SWACA52-60W100%0.0
1-17Arkansas Pine Bluff (311.5)SWACH70-60W100%0.0
1-19Mississippi Valley St. (346.9)SWACH79-55W100%0.0
1-24Alabama A&M (326.6)SWACA58-65W100%0.0
1-26Alabama St. (224.7)SWACA0-030%-5.7
1-31Alcorn St. (339.6)SWACA0-075%7.3
2-7Grambling St. (349.1)SWACH0-098%21.8
2-9Jackson St. (308.0)SWACH0-074%7.1
2-14Arkansas Pine Bluff (311.5)SWACA0-062%3.3
2-16Mississippi Valley St. (346.9)SWACA0-087%12.7
2-21Alabama A&M (326.6)SWACH0-084%10.8
2-23Alabama St. (224.7)SWACH0-054%1.1
2-28Alcorn St. (339.6)SWACH0-090%14.1
3-5Prairie View A&M (293.2)SWACA0-047%-0.8
3-7Texas Southern (143.6)SWACA0-024%-7.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Southern's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Southern's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Southern.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
SouthernSWAC26.3626.4038.4650.56-6.080.30
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC3.174.4811.1115.86-2.46-3.06
Jackson St.SWAC3.264.4726.3239.87-1.54-0.91
Prairie View A&MSWAC3.244.4723.5338.65-1.71-1.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC3.094.4526.3233.55-1.46-1.46
Texas SouthernSWAC3.164.4438.8954.72-0.700.42
Alcorn St.SWAC0.454.4017.6523.84-0.29-2.30
Alabama A&MSWAC3.084.4021.4331.22-1.76-1.65
Grambling St.SWAC3.094.390.007.63-3.09-3.72
Alabama St.SWAC0.404.3961.5466.280.091.43
BaylorB123.011.8976.4770.571.590.78
Iowa St.B122.931.8476.4767.031.550.63
Louisiana TechCUSA2.921.8472.2271.691.300.80
HawaiiBW2.921.8461.1155.870.650.22
TulaneAmer2.921.8461.1152.230.650.08
Middle TennesseeCUSA2.921.8155.5654.680.320.17
Northern ArizonaBSky2.921.7838.8945.44-0.65-0.16
MississippiSEC2.851.7561.1162.380.630.43
Eastern IllinoisOVC2.781.7255.5654.530.310.16
MinnesotaB102.781.7257.8955.170.440.18
WyomingMWC2.781.7282.3575.571.800.88
TCUB120.390.3273.6861.590.190.07
Texas TechB120.220.2355.0041.160.02-0.04
Murray St.OVC0.240.2278.9580.740.140.13
Oklahoma St.B120.230.2066.6758.710.080.04
TexasB120.000.1873.6868.840.000.07
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.290.1770.5977.580.120.09
Kansas St.B120.230.1760.0047.800.05-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.220.1735.2933.29-0.07-0.06
Southern MissCUSA0.220.1725.0022.97-0.11-0.09
UABCUSA0.220.1747.3749.76-0.01-0.00
HoustonAmer0.220.1736.8435.27-0.06-0.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.170.1635.0031.73-0.05-0.06
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.170.1638.8940.51-0.04-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.070.1625.0032.97-0.03-0.05
ArkansasSEC0.150.1578.9572.060.090.07
Air ForceMWC0.160.1535.2936.78-0.05-0.04
CincinnatiAmer0.220.1572.2272.450.100.07
IowaB100.150.1565.0063.320.040.04
UTEPCUSA0.070.1563.1668.460.020.05
MemphisAmer0.300.1563.1661.620.080.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.150.1444.4434.89-0.02-0.04
IndianaB100.150.1478.9568.920.080.05
Michigan St.B100.140.1465.0063.990.040.04
PurdueB100.160.1260.0056.940.030.02
Oregon St.P120.170.1272.2262.220.070.03
UC DavisBW0.220.1275.0066.560.110.04
OhioMAC0.070.1241.1838.69-0.01-0.03
SMUAmer0.220.1278.9577.540.130.06
South FloridaAmer0.140.1233.3332.50-0.05-0.04
KansasB120.150.1184.2175.960.110.06
OklahomaB120.150.1163.1664.380.040.03
RiceCUSA0.150.1126.6730.45-0.07-0.04
UTSACUSA0.150.1143.7543.02-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.080.1184.2174.830.050.06
New Mexico St.WAC0.230.1150.0062.000.000.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.140.1170.5967.460.060.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.220.1155.0061.960.020.03
AuburnSEC0.150.1150.0040.150.00-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.140.1123.5327.70-0.08-0.05
FloridaSEC0.150.1152.6353.780.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.170.1037.5037.47-0.04-0.02
WashingtonP120.170.1077.7865.930.090.03
Austin PeayOVC0.150.0927.7828.23-0.06-0.04
DaytonA100.170.0984.2179.070.110.05
CaliforniaP120.080.0955.0045.750.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.070.0942.1141.54-0.01-0.02
TroySB0.070.0931.2531.36-0.03-0.03
CreightonBE0.220.0945.0039.23-0.02-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.150.0944.4437.95-0.02-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.230.0916.6720.02-0.15-0.05
TempleAmer0.150.0965.0062.140.040.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.150.0943.7538.83-0.02-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.080.0943.7552.34-0.010.00
FIUCUSA0.070.0943.7540.74-0.01-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0942.8642.63-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.140.0963.1651.440.040.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.150.0981.2584.470.100.06
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.140.0961.1158.450.030.01
South CarolinaSEC0.230.0952.9453.130.010.01
DrakeMVC0.150.0816.6718.13-0.10-0.05
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.070.0870.5973.720.030.04
GeorgiaSEC0.140.0872.2265.330.060.03
LamarSlnd0.150.0840.0038.39-0.03-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.140.0847.0654.29-0.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.140.0865.0061.690.040.02
NorthwesternB100.070.0852.6343.260.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.070.0866.6754.630.020.01
AkronMAC0.140.0866.6762.710.050.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.140.0826.3236.33-0.07-0.02
High PointBSth0.140.0870.5968.470.060.03
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0773.6869.120.000.03
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0727.7828.15-0.00-0.03
UtahP120.000.0782.3583.030.000.05
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0731.2527.90-0.00-0.03
George WashingtonA100.090.0780.0071.470.060.03
Notre DameACC0.090.0790.0082.690.070.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.0675.0071.030.050.03
Georgia TechACC0.090.0650.0045.560.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.090.0652.6346.670.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0635.2934.93-0.00-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0658.8257.870.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.090.0644.4434.61-0.01-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.090.0664.7156.920.030.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.150.0642.1145.74-0.02-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0625.0025.62-0.00-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0661.1160.500.000.01
BelmontOVC0.150.0661.1161.640.030.01
Morehead St.OVC0.150.0635.0043.95-0.04-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.150.065.5610.98-0.13-0.05
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0689.4783.130.060.04
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0658.8260.180.000.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0625.0026.14-0.00-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.080.0665.0062.970.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.080.0673.6875.840.040.03
San Jose St.MWC0.080.060.002.08-0.08-0.06
TulsaAmer0.000.0677.7872.280.000.03
UCFAmer0.070.0647.0641.71-0.00-0.01
UNLVMWC0.080.0652.6354.310.000.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0655.5653.210.000.00
ColoradoP120.150.0652.6351.170.010.00
East CarolinaAmer0.150.0635.2931.61-0.04-0.02
St. John'sBE0.140.0670.5961.580.060.01
Wake ForestACC0.140.0645.0040.42-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.080.0641.1838.09-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.070.0650.0050.390.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0633.3331.69-0.00-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.070.0625.0028.11-0.04-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0642.1151.52-0.010.00
Idaho St.BSky0.070.0616.6723.13-0.05-0.03
IllinoisB100.150.0661.9060.570.030.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0642.1151.89-0.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0616.6723.15-0.00-0.03
MarylandB100.150.0685.0077.540.100.03
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0678.9579.430.040.03
Penn St.B100.000.0665.0051.740.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.070.0650.0047.460.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.070.0664.7161.590.020.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0668.7575.250.030.03
Texas St.SB0.080.0643.7545.87-0.01-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.070.0652.9457.380.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.070.0638.8936.57-0.02-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0647.0654.41-0.000.01
Weber St.BSky0.070.0635.2941.31-0.02-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.0690.0087.110.000.04
AlabamaSEC0.080.0666.6760.550.030.01
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0672.2263.510.030.02
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0655.5654.000.010.00
GonzagaWCC0.070.0695.0094.580.070.05
HofstraCAA0.070.0666.6770.410.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0621.0521.36-0.04-0.03
LSUSEC0.070.0678.9569.100.040.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0615.7926.55-0.05-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.070.0664.7156.740.020.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.070.0650.0043.330.00-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.070.0537.5032.90-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0578.5774.650.040.03
StanfordP120.070.0573.6869.340.030.02
ValparaisoHorz0.070.0578.9578.160.040.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0352.6355.510.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0352.9458.930.000.01
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0347.3744.60-0.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0333.3334.70-0.02-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.080.0366.6767.930.030.01
DenverSum0.080.0345.0047.56-0.01-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.030.004.40-0.08-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0317.6526.23-0.05-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0323.5344.31-0.04-0.00
StetsonASun0.080.0311.7619.36-0.06-0.02
AmericanPat0.070.0357.8959.420.010.01
BYUWCC0.070.0365.0067.580.020.01
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0363.1662.110.020.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0347.0649.65-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.070.0323.5328.67-0.04-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.080.0363.1666.350.020.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0337.5043.65-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.070.0383.3376.670.050.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.070.0325.0025.40-0.04-0.01
MaristMAAC0.070.035.2611.93-0.07-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0323.0839.11-0.04-0.01
MichiganB100.070.0357.8950.370.010.00
MontanaBSky0.070.0350.0053.230.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0315.3818.25-0.05-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.070.0335.7146.79-0.02-0.00
OaklandHorz0.080.0333.3340.27-0.03-0.01
Ohio St.B100.070.0375.0076.160.030.02
PittsburghACC0.070.0366.6755.160.020.00
PresbyterianBSth0.070.0317.6518.13-0.05-0.02
RutgersB100.070.0347.6237.42-0.00-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0378.9574.010.040.01
SamfordSC0.070.0336.3636.13-0.02-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0340.0041.96-0.01-0.00
SeattleWAC0.070.0347.0649.64-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.070.0323.5329.50-0.04-0.01
SyracuseACC0.070.0370.0058.840.030.01
ToledoMAC0.070.0357.8959.450.010.01
UMBCAE0.070.0315.7920.31-0.05-0.02
UMKCWAC0.080.0331.5838.42-0.03-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0355.5654.920.010.00
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0336.8441.44-0.02-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.070.0388.8987.630.060.02
XavierBE0.070.0365.0063.100.020.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0356.2555.420.010.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.070.0368.7569.140.030.01
KentuckySEC0.070.03100.0098.440.070.03
MissouriSEC0.000.0333.3330.04-0.00-0.01
OregonP120.070.0368.4259.850.030.01