live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Southern

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:320.0
Current RPI:320
Expected SOS:345
Current SOS:345
Current Record:13-17
Expected Record:13-17
Current Conf Record:11-9
Expected Conf Record:11-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-10
Current OOC Record:2-8
Expected OOC Record:2-8
Expected OOC RPI:311
Expected OOC SOS:285



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-17320.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southern.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Ohio (117.0)MACA77-67L0%0.0
11-14Georgia Tech (105.0)ACCA77-62L0%0.0
11-17Sam Houston St. (194.0)SlndA91-83L0%0.0
11-22Tennessee Tech (277.0)OVCH80-68W100%0.0
12-3Florida A&M (349.0)MEACA71-83W100%0.0
12-7Tulane (296.0)AmerA84-75L0%0.0
12-14Baylor (11.0)B12A89-59L0%0.0
12-18UAB (201.0)CUSAA75-74L0%0.0
12-20Nebraska (107.0)B10A81-76L0%0.0
12-28Southeastern Louisiana (248.0)SlndH53-64L0%0.0
1-2Prairie View A&M (307.0)SWACH59-57W100%0.0
1-4Texas Southern (108.0)SWACH74-82L0%0.0
1-7Grambling St. (317.0)SWACA79-87W100%0.0
1-9Jackson St. (323.0)SWACA65-61L0%0.0
1-14Arkansas Pine Bluff (345.0)SWACH76-75W100%0.0
1-16Mississippi Valley St. (334.0)SWACH87-81W100%0.0
1-21Alabama A&M (351.0)SWACA52-53W100%0.0
1-23Alabama St. (342.0)SWACA79-65L0%0.0
1-28Alcorn St. (228.0)SWACA74-64L0%0.0
2-4Grambling St. (317.0)SWACH67-66W100%0.0
2-6Jackson St. (323.0)SWACH88-75W100%0.0
2-11Arkansas Pine Bluff (345.0)SWACA68-61L0%0.0
2-13Mississippi Valley St. (334.0)SWACA72-81W100%0.0
2-18Alabama A&M (351.0)SWACH77-64W100%0.0
2-20Alabama St. (342.0)SWACH79-73W100%0.0
2-25Alcorn St. (228.0)SWACH67-68L0%0.0
3-2Prairie View A&M (307.0)SWACA70-64L0%0.0
3-4Texas Southern (108.0)SWACA82-69L0%0.0
3-7Jackson St. (323.0)SWACH69-63W100%0.0
3-10Alcorn St. (228.0)SWACN81-59L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Southern's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Southern's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Southern.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
SouthernSWAC26.5526.5545.8345.83-2.21-2.21
Alcorn St.SWAC6.066.0646.1546.15-0.47-0.47
Jackson St.SWAC5.995.9942.3142.31-0.92-0.92
Texas SouthernSWAC4.564.5665.6265.621.431.43
Grambling St.SWAC4.434.4346.4346.43-0.32-0.32
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC4.424.4223.3323.33-2.36-2.36
Alabama A&MSWAC4.404.407.417.41-3.75-3.75
Prairie View A&MSWAC4.384.3834.4834.48-1.36-1.36
Alabama St.SWAC4.374.3721.4321.43-2.50-2.50
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC4.354.3517.8617.86-2.80-2.80
Tennessee TechOVC1.861.8634.4834.48-0.58-0.58
Georgia TechACC1.861.8650.0050.000.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd1.841.8444.8344.83-0.19-0.19
BaylorB121.831.8376.6776.670.980.98
Sam Houston St.Slnd1.801.8055.1755.170.190.19
UABCUSA1.781.7848.3948.39-0.06-0.06
OhioMAC1.751.7562.0762.070.420.42
TulaneAmer1.721.7216.6716.67-1.15-1.15
Florida A&MMEAC1.691.6918.5218.52-1.07-1.07
NebraskaB101.671.6734.4834.48-0.52-0.52
Louisiana TechCUSA0.360.3667.7467.740.130.13
Southern MissCUSA0.200.2024.1424.14-0.10-0.10
Grand CanyonWAC0.190.1968.9768.970.070.07
Kent St.MAC0.190.1961.7661.760.040.04
MarshallCUSA0.170.1755.8855.880.020.02
MemphisAmer0.170.1759.3859.380.030.03
LamarSlnd0.160.1651.7251.720.010.01
Michigan St.B100.160.1657.5857.580.020.02
TCUB120.160.1654.5554.550.010.01
Ohio St.B100.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.140.1445.4545.45-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.140.1458.8258.820.020.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.140.1430.0030.00-0.06-0.06
DrakeMVC0.140.1420.6920.69-0.08-0.08
New OrleansSlnd0.140.1460.7160.710.030.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.140.1446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.120.1273.3373.330.050.05
CaliforniaP120.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
Colorado St.MWC0.110.1165.6265.620.040.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.110.113.333.33-0.10-0.10
WisconsinB100.110.1173.5373.530.050.05
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.110.1136.0036.00-0.03-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.110.1125.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Central MichiganMAC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.110.1153.5753.570.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.110.1119.2319.23-0.07-0.07
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
NorthwesternB100.110.1167.6567.650.040.04
SeattleWAC0.110.1137.0437.04-0.03-0.03
KansasB120.110.1187.5087.500.080.08
HoustonAmer0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
Iowa St.B120.110.1169.7069.700.040.04
West VirginiaB120.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
CincinnatiAmer0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
LouisvilleACC0.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
DuquesneA100.090.0931.2531.25-0.03-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.0940.7440.74-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
South FloridaAmer0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Ball St.MAC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.080.0832.0032.00-0.03-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.0837.0437.04-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.080.0836.0036.00-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
ToledoMAC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Penn St.B100.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
George WashingtonA100.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.080.0821.4321.43-0.05-0.05
ClemsonACC0.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
OklahomaB120.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
TulsaAmer0.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0887.5087.500.060.06
TexasB120.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
UTSACUSA0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
RiceCUSA0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
HowardMEAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
AkronMAC0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
BelmontOVC0.060.0677.7877.780.030.03
BuffaloMAC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
DenverSum0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
LipscombASun0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Little RockSB0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
MichiganB100.060.0668.5768.570.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
SienaMAAC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
FurmanSC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
George MasonA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.050.0573.5373.530.030.03
Oregon St.P120.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
PittsburghACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
SyracuseACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
TempleAmer0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Texas TechB120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
UtahP120.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0596.9796.970.050.05
LibertyBSth0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
UMass LowellAE0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
James MadisonCAA0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
LSUSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
StetsonASun0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
DaytonA100.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
IdahoBSky0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
IllinoisB100.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
IonaMAAC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
MarylandB100.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0329.4129.41-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
RutgersB100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
UCLAP120.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Arizona St.P120.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.030.0377.1477.140.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Miami FLACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
St. John'sBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
WoffordSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01