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Through games of Nov 18, 2017.


Southern

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:281.6
Current RPI:247
Expected SOS:341
Current SOS:96
Current Record:0-4
Expected Record:13-16
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-7
Current OOC Record:0-4
Expected OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC RPI:279
Expected OOC SOS:70



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-8138.00.01%
20-9145.80.04%
19-10173.20.18%
18-11193.30.88%
17-12211.63.05%
16-13230.36.95%
15-14250.412.28%
14-15267.517.09%
13-16284.318.71%
12-17299.316.17%
11-18312.812.15%
10-19323.77.17%
9-20332.53.44%
8-21339.01.36%
7-22344.40.43%
6-23346.90.08%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southern.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Illinois (84.8)B10A102-55L0%0.0
11-13Marshall (170.2)CUSAA83-74L0%0.0
11-15Missouri St. (94.9)MVCA86-58L0%0.0
11-17Duke (6.8)ACCA78-61L0%0.0
11-19North Carolina Central (279.7)MEACA0-035%-4.7
11-22Tennessee Martin (212.3)OVCH0-035%-4.6
12-6Tulane (133.8)AmerA0-09%-16.1
12-9UCF (73.2)AmerA0-04%-21.2
12-10Iowa (98.1)B10A0-03%-22.5
12-14Florida A&M (335.5)MEACH0-084%11.9
12-20Baylor (41.9)B12A0-01%-28.8
1-1Texas Southern (177.8)SWACA0-021%-9.7
1-3Prairie View A&M (301.8)SWACA0-050%0.0
1-6Grambling St. (328.3)SWACH0-074%7.9
1-8Jackson St. (279.5)SWACH0-061%3.3
1-13Arkansas Pine Bluff (338.7)SWACA0-063%4.0
1-15Mississippi Valley St. (338.1)SWACA0-071%6.6
1-20Alabama St. (334.9)SWACH0-081%10.4
1-22Alabama A&M (341.8)SWACH0-083%11.4
1-27Alcorn St. (317.1)SWACH0-069%6.0
2-3Grambling St. (328.3)SWACA0-056%1.9
2-5Jackson St. (279.5)SWACA0-041%-2.7
2-10Arkansas Pine Bluff (338.7)SWACH0-080%10.0
2-12Mississippi Valley St. (338.1)SWACH0-085%12.6
2-17Alabama St. (334.9)SWACA0-064%4.4
2-19Alabama A&M (341.8)SWACA0-067%5.4
2-24Alcorn St. (317.1)SWACA0-050%-0.0
3-1Texas Southern (177.8)SWACH0-038%-3.7
3-3Prairie View A&M (301.8)SWACH0-069%6.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Southern's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Southern's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Southern.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
SouthernSWAC32.8126.380.0049.36-32.81-0.34
Alcorn St.SWAC0.004.430.0036.850.00-1.16
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.004.420.0023.600.00-2.33
Texas SouthernSWAC0.004.420.0048.960.00-0.09
Grambling St.SWAC0.004.410.0032.630.00-1.53
Alabama St.SWAC0.004.400.0026.070.00-2.11
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.004.390.0018.770.00-2.74
Alabama A&MSWAC0.004.380.0022.440.00-2.42
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.004.380.0033.380.00-1.46
Jackson St.SWAC0.004.370.0044.140.00-0.51
IowaB100.001.87100.0056.870.000.26
Tennessee MartinOVC4.171.8725.0049.54-2.08-0.02
IllinoisB1012.501.84100.0057.8312.500.29
BaylorB120.001.84100.0059.750.000.36
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.001.840.0048.630.00-0.05
TulaneAmer0.001.82100.0052.870.000.10
MarshallCUSA12.501.8150.0047.340.00-0.10
Florida A&MMEAC0.001.760.0018.470.00-1.11
UCFAmer0.001.75100.0060.500.000.37
DukeACC12.501.72100.0082.9912.501.14
Missouri St.MVC12.501.7250.0061.860.000.41
CincinnatiAmer0.000.21100.0082.350.000.13
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.20100.0075.130.000.10
OregonP120.000.17100.0076.200.000.09
SMUAmer0.000.17100.0076.260.000.09
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.170.0044.130.00-0.02
UABCUSA0.000.17100.0078.750.000.10
UNLVMWC0.000.17100.0064.720.000.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.150.0028.770.00-0.07
Iowa St.B120.000.1550.0038.730.00-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.15100.0063.590.000.04
IndianaB100.000.1533.3341.220.00-0.03
ToledoMAC0.000.15100.0064.120.000.04
East CarolinaAmer0.000.1533.3334.490.00-0.05
HoustonAmer0.000.1566.6753.670.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.1550.0048.690.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.150.0029.880.00-0.06
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.1550.0052.380.000.01
MichiganB100.000.15100.0061.710.000.03
MinnesotaB100.000.15100.0071.700.000.06
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.150.0035.450.00-0.04
Ohio St.B100.000.14100.0059.870.000.03
OhioMAC0.000.1433.3348.480.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.1366.6763.220.000.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.120.0036.490.00-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.000.12100.0051.900.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.12100.0059.250.000.02
MercerSC0.000.1275.0076.250.000.06
ChattanoogaSC0.000.120.0038.990.00-0.03
MarylandB100.000.12100.0071.740.000.05
Wichita St.Amer0.000.12100.0082.290.000.08
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.120.0021.590.00-0.07
HowardMEAC0.000.120.0046.080.00-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.12100.0051.080.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.1233.3346.880.00-0.01
MemphisAmer0.000.1250.0050.670.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.1266.6728.760.00-0.05
TempleAmer0.000.12100.0056.600.000.02
NebraskaB100.000.1266.6740.070.00-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.12100.0057.270.000.02
Michigan St.B101.560.1250.0077.820.000.07
WisconsinB100.000.1266.6766.970.000.04
KansasB120.000.12100.0082.910.000.08
Oklahoma St.B120.000.12100.0059.540.000.02
TCUB120.000.12100.0061.150.000.03
Georgia TechACC0.000.120.0057.520.000.02
AkronMAC0.000.11100.0060.370.000.02
SamfordSC0.000.1133.3347.970.00-0.00
UtahP120.000.11100.0067.160.000.04
HawaiiBW0.000.11100.0053.460.000.01
BYUWCC0.000.1166.6767.320.000.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.090.0035.610.00-0.03
LSUSEC0.000.09100.0046.080.00-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0966.6761.500.000.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0966.6748.280.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.000.0950.0035.740.00-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0950.0068.280.000.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.090.0046.410.00-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.090.0048.070.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.090.0034.040.00-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.000.09100.0056.360.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.090.0025.140.00-0.04
Ball St.MAC0.000.0933.3345.540.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum2.080.0933.3353.52-0.690.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0975.0061.940.000.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.09100.0061.320.000.02
Western KentuckyCUSA2.080.090.0045.04-2.08-0.01
Morehead St.OVC2.080.0933.3336.61-0.69-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.09100.0078.160.000.05
Penn St.B100.000.09100.0060.400.000.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.0925.0035.000.00-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0933.3335.150.00-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.000.0950.0066.530.000.03
TexasB120.000.09100.0063.830.000.02
RutgersB100.000.09100.0046.880.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.0966.6767.630.000.03
DePaulBE2.080.0933.3331.29-0.69-0.03
Georgia St.SB0.000.0950.0065.140.000.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0950.0069.320.000.03
North TexasCUSA0.000.0950.0036.640.00-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.090.0034.600.00-0.03
ClemsonACC0.000.09100.0054.960.000.01
SyracuseACC0.000.09100.0062.240.000.02
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0067.460.000.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0666.6749.990.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.000.0625.0054.930.000.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0675.0048.770.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.060.0048.610.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0633.3352.000.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0633.3343.810.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0650.0054.450.000.01
ValparaisoMVC0.000.06100.0059.760.000.01
WinthropBSth0.000.060.0055.380.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0022.840.00-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.060.0042.850.00-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0666.6742.170.00-0.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0666.6757.890.000.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0633.3335.210.00-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0633.3341.010.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.000.06100.0062.930.000.02
OklahomaB120.000.06100.0060.070.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0633.3334.560.00-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0633.3329.980.00-0.02
Texas TechB120.000.06100.0062.630.000.02
West VirginiaB120.000.0666.6771.200.000.03
Florida St.ACC0.000.06100.0068.200.000.02
NorthwesternB100.000.0675.0055.040.000.01
PurdueB100.000.06100.0085.360.000.04
XavierBE0.000.06100.0078.990.000.03
Miami FLACC0.000.06100.0074.500.000.03
CharlotteCUSA0.000.060.0045.640.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.06100.0058.070.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0666.6768.320.000.02
New MexicoMWC0.000.0650.0050.570.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0650.0051.840.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0675.0072.950.000.03
SeattleWAC0.000.0633.3350.150.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.06100.0071.010.000.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0633.3350.220.000.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0650.0035.330.00-0.02
VCUA100.000.0666.6766.590.000.02
FordhamA100.000.0633.3336.170.00-0.02
DuquesneA100.000.06100.0047.670.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.000.06100.0086.180.000.04
Kent St.MAC0.000.06100.0066.010.000.02
OaklandHorz0.000.0666.6765.630.000.02
Utah St.MWC0.000.0650.0050.190.000.00
Washington St.P120.000.06100.0041.780.00-0.01
WyomingMWC0.000.06100.0057.360.000.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.05100.0044.740.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0533.3346.330.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0550.0060.060.000.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0566.6746.830.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.000.0566.6742.260.00-0.01
PacificWCC0.000.050.0033.520.00-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.050.0042.340.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0533.3346.090.00-0.00
TroySB0.000.0533.3346.410.00-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.0566.6766.020.000.02
George MasonA100.000.0375.0048.930.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0350.0048.410.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0023.170.00-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.030.0043.690.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.03100.0064.470.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.030.0023.260.00-0.02
StetsonASun0.000.0333.3333.620.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.030.0041.210.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0333.3342.010.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.000.0375.0071.560.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0375.0045.290.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.007.670.00-0.03
ColoradoP120.000.03100.0052.860.000.00
ElonCAA1.560.0333.3350.84-0.520.00
FloridaSEC0.000.03100.0080.230.000.02
FurmanSC0.000.0350.0059.440.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0350.0059.190.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0066.990.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.03100.0054.680.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.03100.0050.450.000.00
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0073.730.000.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.03100.0048.130.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.030.0047.180.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0333.3327.100.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0333.3359.680.000.01
St. John'sBE0.000.03100.0054.590.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0350.0039.640.00-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.030.0046.000.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.000.030.0026.150.00-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC1.560.0350.0060.430.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0074.140.000.01
FIUCUSA0.000.030.0024.970.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.030.0032.130.00-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0325.0045.730.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.030.0017.060.00-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.03100.0039.920.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0350.0043.710.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0333.3336.410.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.0333.3345.780.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.030.0051.690.000.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0333.3338.350.00-0.01
Green BayHorz0.000.030.0044.830.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.000.030.0036.690.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.03100.0069.350.000.01