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Through games of Nov 18, 2017.


Cincinnati

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:17.4
Current RPI:266
Expected SOS:76
Current SOS:336
Current Record:3-0
Expected Record:24-5
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:15-3
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-0
Current OOC Record:3-0
Expected OOC Record:9-2
Expected OOC RPI:47
Expected OOC SOS:265



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
29-02.30.16%
28-13.31.53%
27-25.35.20%
26-37.511.62%
25-410.919.51%
24-515.221.77%
23-620.318.69%
22-726.812.16%
21-834.15.80%
20-943.72.43%
19-1055.20.85%
18-1167.10.23%
17-1289.30.03%
16-13119.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cincinnati.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Savannah St. (300.1)MEACH107-77W100%0.0
11-13Western Carolina (294.1)SCH102-51W100%0.0
11-16Coppin St. (329.3)MEACH97-54W100%0.0
11-20Buffalo (79.2)MACN0-090%15.1
11-27Alabama St. (334.9)SWACH0-0100%40.0
12-2Xavier (9.4)BEA0-041%-2.7
12-9Florida (14.6)SECN0-048%-0.7
12-12Mississippi St. (134.2)SECH0-092%16.5
12-16UCLA (46.1)P12A0-066%4.9
12-19Arkansas Pine Bluff (338.7)SWACH0-0100%39.7
12-21Cleveland St. (268.1)HorzH0-099%29.4
12-31Memphis (137.0)AmerH0-094%19.0
1-4Temple (53.0)AmerA0-074%7.8
1-7SMU (35.9)AmerH0-075%8.1
1-13South Florida (296.3)AmerA0-098%24.9
1-16UCF (73.2)AmerA0-076%8.4
1-20East Carolina (279.3)AmerH0-099%27.0
1-24Temple (53.0)AmerH0-088%13.8
1-27Memphis (137.0)AmerA0-086%13.0
1-31Houston (111.4)AmerH0-092%16.6
2-3Connecticut (68.1)AmerA0-075%8.1
2-6UCF (73.2)AmerH0-089%14.4
2-11SMU (35.9)AmerA0-057%2.1
2-15Houston (111.4)AmerA0-081%10.6
2-18Wichita St. (10.9)AmerH0-060%3.1
2-22Connecticut (68.1)AmerH0-088%14.1
2-25Tulsa (155.3)AmerH0-094%18.8
3-1Tulane (133.8)AmerA0-087%13.6
3-4Wichita St. (10.9)AmerA0-041%-2.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cincinnati's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Cincinnati's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Cincinnati.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
CincinnatiAmer34.0326.27100.0082.8734.0317.27
Wichita St.Amer0.004.28100.0084.800.002.98
ConnecticutAmer0.004.25100.0059.170.000.78
UCFAmer0.004.24100.0065.160.001.29
TempleAmer0.004.22100.0059.380.000.79
SMUAmer0.004.22100.0079.400.002.48
HoustonAmer0.004.1966.6756.630.000.56
MemphisAmer0.004.1650.0053.490.000.29
East CarolinaAmer2.082.6033.3335.67-0.69-0.75
South FloridaAmer0.002.5566.6729.660.00-1.04
TulsaAmer0.002.5550.0050.210.000.01
TulaneAmer0.002.55100.0055.570.000.28
Coppin St.MEAC16.671.870.0023.61-16.67-0.99
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.001.850.0024.680.00-0.93
Savannah St.MEAC16.671.810.0026.08-16.67-0.87
Alabama St.SWAC0.001.810.0027.140.00-0.83
Mississippi St.SEC0.001.78100.0052.550.000.09
Cleveland St.Horz2.081.7833.3334.71-0.69-0.54
FloridaSEC0.001.75100.0081.230.001.09
BuffaloMAC0.001.72100.0062.890.000.44
UCLAP120.001.72100.0065.970.000.55
Western CarolinaSC16.671.720.0022.17-16.67-0.96
XavierBE0.001.72100.0079.680.001.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.23100.0061.320.000.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.210.0034.040.00-0.07
SouthernSWAC0.000.210.0044.630.00-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.200.0033.850.00-0.07
MercerSC0.000.1875.0076.250.000.09
AuburnSEC0.000.1866.6750.670.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.1875.0058.930.000.03
VillanovaBE0.000.18100.0082.960.000.12
OregonP122.080.18100.0076.202.080.09
New OrleansSlnd0.000.170.0042.810.00-0.03
LSUSEC0.000.17100.0046.080.00-0.01
BaylorB120.000.15100.0061.110.000.03
MissouriSEC0.000.1566.6757.890.000.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.15100.0053.240.000.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.150.0048.070.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.150.0032.770.00-0.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.1533.3335.150.00-0.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.140.0037.120.00-0.04
East Tennessee St.SC2.780.1233.3357.84-0.930.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1250.0068.280.000.04
Texas A&MSEC0.000.12100.0071.010.000.05
Western MichiganMAC0.000.1233.3353.190.000.01
CaliforniaP120.000.1266.6740.170.00-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.12100.0066.010.000.04
DrexelCAA0.000.1233.3339.360.00-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.000.1233.3342.010.00-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.12100.0071.180.000.05
SamfordSC0.000.1233.3347.970.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.000.1275.0071.830.000.05
ProvidenceBE0.000.1275.0064.570.000.03
USCP120.000.12100.0073.190.000.05
VanderbiltSEC0.000.1266.6749.990.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.120.0022.610.00-0.06
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.120.0044.500.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.120.0018.970.00-0.07
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.120.0050.360.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.110.0035.450.00-0.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.11100.0070.960.000.05
ChattanoogaSC0.000.090.0038.990.00-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0966.6768.790.000.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0966.6761.500.000.02
William & MaryCAA0.000.0933.3335.210.00-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.090.0043.690.00-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.09100.0059.540.000.02
AkronMAC0.000.09100.0060.370.000.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.09100.0039.920.00-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.090.0044.130.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.09100.0062.240.000.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.090.0042.850.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0933.3348.480.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.000.0933.3333.620.00-0.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.090.0029.630.00-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.090.0021.590.00-0.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0966.6748.280.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.000.09100.0083.700.000.06
George WashingtonA100.000.0966.6745.880.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0966.6763.220.000.02
WisconsinB100.000.0966.6766.970.000.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.090.0018.400.00-0.06
UMBCAE0.000.090.0052.900.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.09100.0053.790.000.01
StanfordP120.000.0975.0049.860.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.000.090.0046.080.00-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0925.0040.490.00-0.02
RutgersB100.000.09100.0046.880.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.000.09100.0067.460.000.03
DetroitHorz0.000.090.0029.290.00-0.04
Green BayHorz0.000.090.0044.830.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.000.09100.0052.860.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.09100.0058.070.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0866.6742.260.00-0.01
Little RockSB0.000.080.0037.050.00-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0666.6748.040.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0666.6773.200.000.03
FurmanSC0.000.0650.0059.440.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0666.6740.070.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.06100.0050.450.000.00
OklahomaB120.000.06100.0060.070.000.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0633.3330.460.00-0.02
UMKCWAC0.000.060.0026.150.00-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.060.0056.560.000.01
VMISC0.000.0633.3327.450.00-0.03
WoffordSC0.000.060.0039.740.00-0.01
ClemsonACC4.170.06100.0054.964.170.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0650.0077.820.000.03
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0650.0051.840.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.06100.0078.160.000.03
ToledoMAC0.000.06100.0064.120.000.02
Boise St.MWC0.000.06100.0066.490.000.02
Boston UniversityPat0.000.060.0047.690.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.000.0633.3338.050.00-0.01
ColgatePat0.000.0650.0050.310.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0633.3350.350.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0666.6754.900.000.01
La SalleA100.000.0675.0051.210.000.00
LibertyBSth0.000.0633.3360.630.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0633.3346.880.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.060.0023.170.00-0.03
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0666.6759.740.000.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.060.0022.920.00-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0675.0072.950.000.03
PennIvy0.000.0633.3349.350.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0666.6759.540.000.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0666.6753.390.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.060.0047.400.00-0.00
TCUB120.000.06100.0061.150.000.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0650.0035.330.00-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.060.0028.720.00-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0053.280.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.060.0028.770.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.060.0049.250.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.060.0035.610.00-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.06100.0068.200.000.02
North FloridaASun0.000.060.0036.690.00-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.06100.0048.350.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0633.3346.330.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.060.0045.640.00-0.01
DePaulBE0.000.0633.3331.290.00-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0650.0048.410.00-0.00
IUPUIHorz0.000.060.0032.200.00-0.02
MarquetteBE0.000.0650.0050.870.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.06100.0060.010.000.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0666.6765.630.000.02
Seton HallBE0.000.06100.0067.950.000.02
UtahP120.000.06100.0067.160.000.02
Wright St.Horz0.000.060.0041.210.00-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.060.0027.250.00-0.03
ButlerBE0.000.0675.0052.360.000.00
St. John'sBE0.000.06100.0054.590.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.060.0057.520.000.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0625.0050.070.000.00
AlbanyAE0.000.06100.0072.510.000.03
BryantNEC0.000.060.0030.230.00-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.06100.0066.990.000.02
Loyola MDPat0.000.060.0038.210.00-0.01
SienaMAAC0.000.060.0037.060.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.06100.0078.750.000.03
Ball St.MAC0.000.0333.3345.540.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.030.0048.610.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.000.0350.0048.680.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.03100.0064.470.000.01
High PointBSth0.000.0333.3347.540.00-0.00
IowaB100.000.03100.0058.250.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB2.780.0350.0059.190.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.03100.0063.590.000.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0350.0042.160.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.000.03100.0071.700.000.01
NJITASun0.000.0333.3333.210.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.030.0036.070.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0350.0054.450.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0046.410.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.000.03100.0062.630.000.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.030.0064.600.000.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.03100.0071.560.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0074.140.000.01
WinthropBSth0.000.030.0055.380.000.00
CampbellBSth0.000.030.0051.410.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0333.3352.000.000.00
Iowa St.B120.000.0350.0038.730.00-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.030.0031.810.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.000.03100.0062.930.000.01
LamarSlnd0.000.03100.0065.580.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.03100.0057.270.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.03100.0055.280.000.00
New HampshireAE0.000.030.0048.110.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.030.0023.260.00-0.02
RadfordBSth0.000.0350.0046.150.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0350.0050.360.000.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0333.3338.350.00-0.01
Arizona St.P120.000.03100.0062.760.000.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.030.0042.670.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0366.6742.170.00-0.00
DaytonA100.000.0366.6762.150.000.01
FordhamA100.000.0333.3336.170.00-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0350.0065.140.000.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0325.0045.730.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0366.6749.100.00-0.00
MichiganB100.000.03100.0061.710.000.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0350.0060.130.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0333.3336.610.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0350.0043.710.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0333.3353.520.000.00
RiderMAAC0.000.0366.6755.210.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.0333.3345.780.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.000.0366.6767.630.000.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.030.0034.600.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.03100.0069.350.000.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0333.3353.300.000.00
WashingtonP120.000.0350.0046.810.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.000.03100.0041.780.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.000.0333.3350.840.000.00
FIUCUSA0.000.030.0024.970.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.030.0032.130.00-0.01
IndianaB100.000.0333.3341.220.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0325.0047.800.00-0.00
NavyPat0.000.0350.0052.870.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.030.0024.440.00-0.01
Penn St.B100.000.03100.0060.400.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0366.6771.200.000.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.03100.0044.740.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0350.0060.060.000.01
HawaiiBW0.000.03100.0053.460.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.0366.6746.830.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.000.030.0033.520.00-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.030.0042.340.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.000.0333.3346.090.00-0.00
TroySB0.000.0333.3346.410.00-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.0366.6766.020.000.01