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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Cincinnati

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:37.0
Current RPI:37
Expected SOS:60
Current SOS:60
Current Record:22-10
Expected Record:22-10
Current Conf Record:13-6
Expected Conf Record:13-6
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-2
Current OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:52
Expected OOC SOS:23



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-1037.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cincinnati.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14St. Francis PA (179.0)NECH52-37W100%0.0
11-19Morehead St. (201.0)OVCH69-61W100%0.0
11-23Eastern Illinois (173.0)OVCH54-49W100%0.0
11-25North Carolina Central (128.0)MEACH59-50W100%0.0
11-28Middle Tennessee (138.0)CUSAN69-51W100%0.0
11-29Mississippi (60.0)SECN66-54L0%0.0
12-2Stony Brook (107.0)AEH78-52W100%0.0
12-13Nebraska (158.0)B10A56-55L0%0.0
12-17San Diego St. (26.0)MWCH71-62W100%0.0
12-20VCU (15.0)A10H47-68L0%0.0
12-23Wagner (294.0)NECH72-48W100%0.0
12-30North Carolina St. (39.0)ACCA60-76W100%0.0
1-3SMU (12.0)AmerH56-50W100%0.0
1-6East Carolina (219.0)AmerH69-48W100%0.0
1-10Connecticut (77.0)AmerA62-56L0%0.0
1-15Memphis (83.0)AmerA63-50L0%0.0
1-17Temple (34.0)AmerH84-53W100%0.0
1-21Houston (239.0)AmerH67-54W100%0.0
1-25UCF (257.0)AmerA46-56W100%0.0
1-29Connecticut (77.0)AmerH70-58W100%0.0
2-1East Carolina (219.0)AmerA50-46L0%0.0
2-5SMU (12.0)AmerA54-62W100%0.0
2-7South Florida (273.0)AmerH63-58W100%0.0
2-10Temple (34.0)AmerA75-59L0%0.0
2-14Tulane (214.0)AmerH49-50L0%0.0
2-18Xavier (30.0)BEH57-59L0%0.0
2-21Houston (239.0)AmerA53-63W100%0.0
2-25UCF (257.0)AmerH83-60W100%0.0
2-28Tulane (214.0)AmerA47-63W100%0.0
3-4Tulsa (45.0)AmerA47-56W100%0.0
3-8Memphis (83.0)AmerH77-65W100%0.0
3-13Connecticut (77.0)AmerA57-54L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cincinnati's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Cincinnati's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Cincinnati.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
CincinnatiAmer26.2826.2867.6567.659.279.27
ConnecticutAmer5.495.4958.0658.060.880.88
SMUAmer4.034.0386.6786.672.962.96
TempleAmer3.973.9770.9770.971.661.66
MemphisAmer3.973.9756.6756.670.530.53
East CarolinaAmer3.973.9737.9337.93-0.96-0.96
HoustonAmer3.933.9343.3343.33-0.52-0.52
UCFAmer3.913.9140.7440.74-0.72-0.72
TulaneAmer3.913.9146.4346.43-0.28-0.28
TulsaAmer2.522.5273.3373.331.171.17
South FloridaAmer2.492.4926.6726.67-1.16-1.16
North Carolina CentralMEAC1.641.6478.5778.570.940.94
St. Francis PANEC1.621.6251.7251.720.060.06
WagnerNEC1.611.6132.1432.14-0.58-0.58
Eastern IllinoisOVC1.611.6153.5753.570.120.12
Morehead St.OVC1.591.5948.3948.39-0.05-0.05
North Carolina St.ACC1.591.5962.5062.500.400.40
Middle TennesseeCUSA1.561.5654.5554.550.140.14
MississippiSEC1.561.5661.2961.290.350.35
NebraskaB101.561.5640.0040.00-0.31-0.31
San Diego St.MWC1.561.5678.1278.120.880.88
Stony BrookAE1.561.5667.7467.740.550.55
VCUA101.561.5673.5373.530.740.74
XavierBE1.561.5660.6160.610.330.33
Central ConnecticutNEC0.230.2316.1316.13-0.15-0.15
CreightonBE0.200.2042.4242.42-0.03-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.200.2083.3383.330.130.13
LIU BrooklynNEC0.180.1840.0040.00-0.04-0.04
BryantNEC0.170.1751.6151.610.010.01
DukeACC0.160.1687.8887.880.120.12
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.150.1525.9325.93-0.07-0.07
BelmontOVC0.150.1567.7467.740.050.05
ColumbiaIvy0.140.1444.4444.44-0.02-0.02
UNLVMWC0.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.140.1475.0075.000.070.07
VillanovaBE0.140.1494.1294.120.120.12
DaytonA100.140.1475.7675.760.070.07
Robert MorrisNEC0.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.130.1366.6766.670.040.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.130.1325.8125.81-0.06-0.06
Florida St.ACC0.130.1351.5251.520.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.130.1357.1457.140.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.130.1334.3834.38-0.04-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.130.1318.7518.75-0.08-0.08
Tennessee TechOVC0.130.1335.7135.71-0.04-0.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.130.1339.2939.29-0.03-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.130.1346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.120.1268.5768.570.050.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.120.1234.4834.48-0.04-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.120.1223.3323.33-0.07-0.07
AmericanPat0.120.1251.5251.520.000.00
DavidsonA100.120.1276.6776.670.060.06
Boise St.MWC0.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
WyomingMWC0.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
UABCUSA0.120.1254.5554.550.010.01
FloridaSEC0.120.1248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.110.1130.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Sacred HeartNEC0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.110.1124.1424.14-0.05-0.05
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.110.1138.4638.46-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.106.906.90-0.09-0.09
MarylandB100.100.1081.8281.820.070.07
Austin PeayOVC0.100.1021.4321.43-0.06-0.06
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
USC UpstateASun0.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
VermontAE0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
WashingtonP120.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
AlbanyAE0.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
Tennessee St.OVC0.100.1010.3410.34-0.08-0.08
St. John'sBE0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
Fresno St.MWC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
GonzagaWCC0.100.1093.9493.940.090.09
Northern ArizonaBSky0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
AuburnSEC0.100.1041.1841.18-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
West VirginiaB120.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
RichmondA100.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
DetroitHorz0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0867.8667.860.030.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.080.0810.0010.00-0.06-0.06
MonmouthMAAC0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
HawaiiBW0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Green BayHorz0.070.0773.3373.330.030.03
PennIvy0.070.0732.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
IndianaB100.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
MichiganB100.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.070.0787.1087.100.050.05
East Tennessee St.SC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.070.0716.6716.67-0.05-0.05
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
RiceCUSA0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0786.6786.670.050.05
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
Seton HallBE0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0781.2581.250.040.04
PittsburghACC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
La SalleA100.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.070.0790.6290.620.060.06
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0727.2727.27-0.03-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.070.0767.7467.740.020.02
StanfordP120.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
YaleIvy0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0777.4277.420.040.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
StetsonASun0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
UC DavisBW0.050.0579.3179.310.030.03
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
RutgersB100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
IllinoisB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0558.3358.330.010.01
IowaB100.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Penn St.B100.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
WisconsinB100.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
IUPUISum0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.056.906.90-0.04-0.04
Northern KentuckyASun0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
PurdueB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
BradleyMVC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
HartfordAE0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0574.0774.070.020.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.050.0542.3142.31-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
New HampshireAE0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0564.7164.710.010.01
Texas TechB120.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
DuquesneA100.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0559.2659.260.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
DelawareCAA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
NevadaMWC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.040.0430.0030.00-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.040.0426.6726.67-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.040.0463.6463.640.010.01
Saint LouisA100.040.0432.2632.26-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
LehighPat0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
NavyPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
NJITind0.030.0356.0056.000.000.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
KentuckySEC0.020.02100.00100.000.020.02
Loyola MDPat0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
TCUB120.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
TroySB0.020.0229.6329.63-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
ArizonaP120.020.0291.1891.180.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Miami FLACC0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
Notre DameACC0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
San Jose St.MWC0.020.020.000.00-0.02-0.02
SyracuseACC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
UtahP120.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.020.0281.2581.250.010.01
AkronMAC0.020.0258.8258.820.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0265.5265.520.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
MassachusettsA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0290.9190.910.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
ToledoMAC0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00