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Through games of Dec 6, 2016.


Cincinnati

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:18.6
Current RPI:36
Expected SOS:63
Current SOS:103
Current Record:7-1
Expected Record:26-5
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:15-3
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-0
Current OOC Record:7-1
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:17
Expected OOC SOS:32



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
30-13.70.40%
29-25.92.70%
28-38.69.11%
27-411.818.18%
26-515.722.65%
25-620.020.69%
24-725.214.07%
23-831.37.94%
22-939.03.15%
21-1048.60.80%
20-1159.20.25%
19-1269.80.05%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cincinnati.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Brown (264.6)IvyH84-55W100%0.0
11-14Albany (149.0)AEH74-51W100%0.0
11-19Rhode Island (34.2)A10N76-71L0%0.0
11-20Penn St. (120.6)B10N71-50W100%0.0
11-23Samford (165.0)SCH70-55W100%0.0
11-26Lipscomb (293.8)ASunH91-68W100%0.0
12-1Iowa St. (25.8)B12A54-55W100%0.0
12-4Bowling Green (237.3)MACH85-56W100%0.0
12-10Butler (14.3)BEA0-041%-2.6
12-13Texas Southern (105.6)SWACH0-094%18.6
12-17Fairleigh Dickinson (254.8)NECH0-099%27.1
12-22Marshall (120.3)CUSAH0-095%19.6
12-28Temple (51.5)AmerA0-067%5.3
1-1Tulane (284.4)AmerH0-099%26.1
1-7Houston (41.9)AmerA0-052%0.6
1-12SMU (58.7)AmerH0-079%9.6
1-15East Carolina (173.0)AmerA0-086%13.0
1-18Temple (51.5)AmerH0-083%11.5
1-21Tulane (284.4)AmerA0-095%19.9
1-26Xavier (15.9)BEH0-064%4.2
1-29South Florida (264.5)AmerH0-098%25.9
2-1Tulsa (189.4)AmerA0-089%14.7
2-4Connecticut (118.0)AmerH0-090%15.3
2-8UCF (46.2)AmerH0-076%8.7
2-12SMU (58.7)AmerA0-061%3.3
2-15South Florida (264.5)AmerA0-095%19.6
2-18Tulsa (189.4)AmerH0-096%20.9
2-23Memphis (138.5)AmerH0-090%15.4
2-26UCF (46.2)AmerA0-058%2.4
3-2Houston (41.9)AmerH0-072%6.8
3-5Connecticut (118.0)AmerA0-078%9.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cincinnati's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Cincinnati's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Cincinnati.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
CincinnatiAmer27.9726.2784.3881.7019.2316.66
SMUAmer0.004.0166.6769.160.001.54
HoustonAmer0.004.0175.0077.820.002.23
UCFAmer0.003.9885.7178.880.002.30
TempleAmer0.003.9875.0067.570.001.40
TulaneAmer0.003.9812.5025.30-0.00-1.97
South FloridaAmer0.003.9857.1435.410.00-1.16
ConnecticutAmer0.003.9842.8647.02-0.00-0.24
TulsaAmer0.003.9850.0040.020.00-0.79
East CarolinaAmer0.002.5170.0051.210.000.06
MemphisAmer0.002.5175.0057.810.000.39
AlbanyAE6.911.7250.0062.750.000.44
Rhode IslandA106.561.7062.5069.381.640.66
BrownIvy7.041.6755.5645.400.78-0.15
XavierBE0.001.6787.5072.030.000.73
ButlerBE0.001.66100.0075.390.000.85
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.351.6416.6741.43-0.23-0.28
LipscombASun6.251.6412.5033.68-4.69-0.54
Penn St.B106.701.6475.0047.713.35-0.08
Bowling GreenMAC6.251.6128.5742.19-2.68-0.25
Iowa St.B126.251.6185.7173.794.460.77
MarshallCUSA0.001.6162.5055.220.000.17
SamfordSC6.251.6171.4358.542.680.28
Texas SouthernSWAC0.001.6150.0068.390.000.59
George WashingtonA100.350.2155.5642.150.04-0.03
VillanovaBE0.000.21100.0084.740.000.15
ProvidenceBE0.660.1977.7859.940.370.04
St. John'sBE0.000.1944.4436.20-0.00-0.05
Oklahoma St.B120.000.1771.4354.010.000.01
PennIvy0.000.1633.3356.66-0.000.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.1655.5647.600.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.1671.4358.170.000.03
DePaulBE0.000.1671.4337.680.00-0.04
NJITASun0.000.1444.4451.58-0.000.00
CornellIvy0.000.1428.5730.43-0.00-0.05
StetsonASun0.000.1425.0026.46-0.00-0.06
Ohio St.B100.000.1477.7862.010.000.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.390.1412.5031.01-0.29-0.05
YaleIvy0.450.1442.8663.63-0.060.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.700.1425.0041.19-0.35-0.02
Seton HallBE0.000.1375.0054.480.000.01
VermontAE0.000.1362.5071.400.000.06
OklahomaB120.000.1371.4348.030.00-0.01
La SalleA100.000.1357.1456.540.000.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.130.0017.92-0.00-0.08
TCUB120.000.13100.0060.950.000.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.310.1112.5026.05-0.23-0.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.1125.0030.02-0.00-0.05
North FloridaASun0.000.1112.5034.49-0.00-0.04
WagnerNEC0.000.1128.5752.65-0.000.01
HarvardIvy0.000.1133.3349.39-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.1140.0041.72-0.00-0.02
Texas St.SB0.000.1150.0044.180.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.110.0022.47-0.00-0.06
MissouriSEC0.000.1162.5044.840.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.1137.5028.47-0.00-0.05
George MasonA100.000.1162.5046.490.00-0.01
BaylorB120.000.11100.0076.070.000.06
CreightonBE0.000.11100.0076.540.000.06
MarquetteBE0.000.1177.7864.250.000.03
New HampshireAE0.000.1162.5062.120.000.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.1112.5033.18-0.00-0.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1142.8645.34-0.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.1140.0058.88-0.000.02
West VirginiaB120.000.1185.7183.250.000.07
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1014.2943.08-0.00-0.01
PittsburghACC0.000.1075.0048.980.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.310.0922.2246.51-0.17-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.310.0928.5727.38-0.13-0.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.390.0950.0045.920.00-0.01
BelmontOVC1.040.0857.1464.500.150.02
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0842.8643.78-0.00-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.350.080.0020.72-0.35-0.05
FordhamA100.350.0850.0041.640.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.350.0816.6738.87-0.23-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.390.0811.1149.12-0.30-0.00
MaineAE0.000.0814.2923.40-0.00-0.04
Stony BrookAE0.000.0837.5043.19-0.00-0.01
MaristMAAC0.660.0844.4434.60-0.07-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0875.0074.590.000.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0828.5738.92-0.00-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0842.8645.50-0.00-0.01
The CitadelSC0.390.0850.0030.320.00-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0828.5723.02-0.00-0.04
MercerSC0.000.0842.8647.68-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.08100.0078.180.000.05
Nicholls St.Slnd0.390.0842.8637.05-0.06-0.02
RutgersB100.000.0887.5050.250.000.00
AkronMAC0.000.0871.4368.930.000.03
OhioMAC0.000.0883.3371.500.000.03
Old DominionCUSA0.350.0862.5066.500.090.03
South DakotaSum0.390.0850.0046.820.00-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0820.0017.37-0.00-0.05
ToledoMAC0.000.0837.5047.57-0.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.0888.8967.470.000.03
BuffaloMAC0.000.0833.3352.03-0.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0862.5050.630.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0866.6761.690.000.02
Georgia TechACC0.350.0857.1436.370.05-0.02
LSUSEC0.000.0871.4347.690.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.000.0850.0059.840.000.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0820.0022.88-0.00-0.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.080.0013.32-0.00-0.06
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0850.0056.080.000.01
IndianaB100.000.0887.5074.510.000.04
IowaB100.000.0844.4438.41-0.00-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.080.0025.17-0.00-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0812.5037.11-0.00-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0825.0031.76-0.00-0.03
MichiganB100.000.0877.7865.840.000.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0657.1471.170.000.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0660.0067.820.000.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0662.5060.090.000.01
Little RockSB0.000.0666.6761.400.000.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0662.5052.400.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.060.0022.75-0.00-0.03
Oregon St.P120.000.0625.0023.62-0.00-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.000.0620.0060.00-0.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0630.0045.49-0.00-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0644.4438.15-0.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.350.0657.1450.860.050.00
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0633.3340.37-0.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0625.0055.44-0.000.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.350.0625.0027.74-0.17-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.000.0644.4441.55-0.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0677.7886.650.000.04
AuburnSEC0.000.0685.7157.280.000.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0642.8655.07-0.000.01
DelawareCAA0.000.0650.0041.700.00-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0683.3379.920.000.03
ElonCAA0.000.0662.5054.660.000.01
FurmanSC0.000.0642.8657.52-0.000.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0625.0045.82-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.000.0644.4443.25-0.00-0.01
OregonP120.000.0675.0072.800.000.03
RiderMAAC0.000.0657.1450.790.000.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0662.5062.080.000.01
TroySB0.000.0642.8636.07-0.00-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0671.4355.570.000.01
WoffordSC0.000.060.0034.69-0.00-0.02
VMISC0.000.060.0016.56-0.00-0.04
Saint LouisA100.390.0525.0023.99-0.20-0.03
Arizona St.P120.000.0555.5637.870.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0587.5069.040.000.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.0550.0050.170.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.000.0550.0042.750.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0571.4362.990.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0571.4373.270.000.03
HartfordAE0.000.0522.2226.44-0.00-0.03
Holy CrossPat0.450.0537.5047.44-0.11-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.390.0542.8650.98-0.060.00
KansasB120.000.0588.8977.470.000.03
Kansas St.B120.000.0588.8956.710.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0557.1454.200.000.00
LibertyBSth0.000.0528.5746.79-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.050.0034.54-0.00-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0587.5075.730.000.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0575.0047.520.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.050.0036.38-0.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0587.5081.910.000.03
SeattleWAC0.000.0516.6738.83-0.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0542.8650.33-0.000.00
TexasB120.000.0550.0038.730.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.000.0587.5061.660.000.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0520.0035.15-0.00-0.02
UMBCAE0.000.0580.0054.190.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0555.5646.770.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0537.5035.03-0.00-0.02
ArizonaP120.000.0577.7870.290.000.02
ColgatePat0.350.0512.5030.11-0.26-0.02
DukeACC0.690.0590.0080.060.560.03
DuquesneA100.350.0540.0039.19-0.07-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.790.0542.8658.24-0.110.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0562.5074.160.000.03
NorthwesternB100.000.0575.0066.090.000.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0575.0070.570.000.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.390.050.0019.08-0.39-0.03
UtahP120.000.0580.0058.220.000.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0512.5033.31-0.00-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.050.0032.29-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.050.0023.90-0.00-0.03
Boise St.MWC0.000.0550.0056.890.000.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0550.0064.910.000.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0533.3351.98-0.000.00
IllinoisB100.000.0566.6751.140.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0522.2232.01-0.00-0.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0588.8966.920.000.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0533.3352.49-0.000.00
PurdueB100.000.0577.7877.640.000.03
StanfordP120.000.0566.6758.600.000.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.050.0033.71-0.00-0.02
USCP120.000.05100.0076.400.000.03
ArmyPat0.000.0342.8650.29-0.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0333.3336.67-0.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0357.1464.540.000.01
NiagaraMAAC0.310.0325.0035.75-0.16-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0328.5737.54-0.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0044.700.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.350.0385.7169.920.250.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0342.8653.80-0.000.00
CampbellBSth0.390.0342.8639.64-0.06-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.390.0375.0069.680.200.01
San DiegoWCC0.390.0337.5031.15-0.10-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.0371.4357.210.000.00
BucknellPat0.000.0370.0070.530.000.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0337.5044.42-0.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0312.5030.51-0.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0375.0058.720.000.00
DetroitHorz0.000.030.0021.30-0.00-0.02
DrakeMVC0.000.030.0020.21-0.00-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0350.0050.980.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.390.0350.0045.130.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.000.0314.2935.05-0.00-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.390.03100.0092.200.390.02
Green BayHorz0.390.0337.5048.85-0.10-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0357.1472.530.000.01
Miami FLACC0.390.0377.7866.740.220.01
Murray St.OVC0.390.0350.0060.950.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.390.0337.5050.92-0.100.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0333.3331.35-0.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0316.6740.32-0.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.390.0385.7177.000.280.01
RichmondA100.000.0350.0048.500.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0350.0040.690.00-0.01
SienaMAAC0.450.0333.3350.05-0.150.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0375.0070.350.000.01
UMKCWAC0.390.0355.5649.660.04-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.0320.0035.46-0.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0325.0029.90-0.00-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.350.0385.7175.250.250.01
VCUA100.000.0375.0072.930.000.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0316.6735.90-0.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0333.3346.06-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.000.0357.1448.110.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.000.0371.4354.560.000.00
ColoradoP120.000.0375.0062.450.000.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0371.4355.680.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0314.2942.77-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0325.0042.78-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.0312.5030.17-0.00-0.01
LehighPat0.000.0337.5061.81-0.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0371.4363.080.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.0387.5075.690.000.01
MarylandB100.000.0387.5059.030.000.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0360.0058.780.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0337.5037.96-0.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0375.0047.990.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0377.7872.210.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0357.1444.830.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0020.63-0.00-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0357.1459.020.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0328.5724.39-0.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0357.1449.420.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0383.3377.290.000.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0362.5067.590.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.0388.8978.430.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0377.7855.180.000.00
WisconsinB100.000.0377.7876.550.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.350.0362.5052.060.090.00