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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Cincinnati

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:21.0
Current RPI:21
Expected SOS:69
Current SOS:69
Current Record:27-6
Expected Record:27-6
Current Conf Record:16-4
Expected Conf Record:16-4
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-0
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:30
Expected OOC SOS:95



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-621.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cincinnati.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8North Carolina Central (99.0)MEACH74-61W100%0.0
11-12North Carolina St. (55.0)ACCH68-57W100%0.0
11-16Appalachian St. (335.0)SCH77-49W100%0.0
11-20Campbell (316.0)BSthH81-62W100%0.0
11-26UMass Lowell (283.0)AEH79-49W100%0.0
11-29Kennesaw St. (324.0)ASunH95-67W100%0.0
12-3USC Upstate (163.0)ASunH86-50W100%0.0
12-7New Mexico (12.0)MWCA63-54L0%0.0
12-14Xavier (47.0)BEN64-47L0%0.0
12-17Pittsburgh (39.0)ACCN43-44W100%0.0
12-21Middle Tennessee (64.0)CUSAH69-48W100%0.0
12-23Chicago St. (259.0)WACH102-62W100%0.0
12-28Nebraska (48.0)B10H74-59W100%0.0
1-1SMU (53.0)AmerH65-57W100%0.0
1-4Memphis (37.0)AmerA53-69W100%0.0
1-7Houston (143.0)AmerA60-61W100%0.0
1-11Rutgers (192.0)AmerH71-51W100%0.0
1-14Temple (175.0)AmerH69-58W100%0.0
1-18South Florida (232.0)AmerA54-61W100%0.0
1-23UCF (220.0)AmerH69-51W100%0.0
1-26Temple (175.0)AmerA76-80W100%0.0
1-30Louisville (19.0)AmerA66-69W100%0.0
2-2South Florida (232.0)AmerH50-45W100%0.0
2-6Connecticut (22.0)AmerH63-58W100%0.0
2-8SMU (53.0)AmerA76-55L0%0.0
2-15Houston (143.0)AmerH73-62W100%0.0
2-19UCF (220.0)AmerA49-77W100%0.0
2-22Louisville (19.0)AmerH57-58L0%0.0
3-1Connecticut (22.0)AmerA51-45L0%0.0
3-6Memphis (37.0)AmerH97-84W100%0.0
3-8Rutgers (192.0)AmerA66-70W100%0.0
3-13UCF (220.0)AmerN61-58W100%0.0
3-14Connecticut (22.0)AmerN56-58L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cincinnati's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Cincinnati's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Cincinnati.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
CincinnatiAmer26.4226.4281.2981.2916.5416.54
ConnecticutAmer5.465.4677.4277.422.992.99
UCFAmer5.395.3942.3142.31-0.83-0.83
LouisvilleAmer4.054.0587.5087.503.043.04
HoustonAmer3.983.9854.8454.840.390.39
RutgersAmer3.983.9836.6736.67-1.06-1.06
TempleAmer3.963.9631.0331.03-1.50-1.50
MemphisAmer3.953.9575.8675.862.042.04
South FloridaAmer3.933.9340.0040.00-0.79-0.79
SMUAmer3.933.9373.3373.331.841.84
North Carolina St.ACC1.641.6463.6463.640.450.45
North Carolina CentralMEAC1.591.5986.6786.671.171.17
CampbellBSth1.591.5933.3333.33-0.53-0.53
Appalachian St.SC1.591.5920.0020.00-0.95-0.95
USC UpstateASun1.571.5756.6756.670.210.21
Kennesaw St.ASun1.561.5614.2914.29-1.12-1.12
PittsburghACC1.561.5675.7675.760.800.80
Chicago St.WAC1.521.5237.9337.93-0.37-0.37
Middle TennesseeCUSA1.521.5273.3373.330.710.71
NebraskaB101.521.5263.3363.330.400.40
New MexicoMWC1.521.5281.2581.250.950.95
UMass LowellAE1.521.5234.6234.62-0.47-0.47
XavierBE1.521.5261.2961.290.340.34
StetsonASun0.230.2322.5822.58-0.12-0.12
HowardMEAC0.200.2019.3519.35-0.12-0.12
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.200.2062.5062.500.050.05
UABCUSA0.190.1955.1755.170.020.02
Miami FLACC0.190.1951.5251.520.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.180.1835.7135.71-0.05-0.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.170.1716.6716.67-0.12-0.12
IndianaB100.170.1753.1253.120.010.01
MarylandACC0.160.1651.6151.610.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
North FloridaASun0.150.1546.6746.67-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.150.1517.8617.86-0.09-0.09
Oklahoma St.B120.150.1563.6463.640.040.04
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.140.1425.8125.81-0.07-0.07
Florida A&MMEAC0.140.1440.0040.00-0.03-0.03
FloridaSEC0.140.1494.1294.120.120.12
DetroitHorz0.140.1436.6736.67-0.04-0.04
StanfordP120.140.1463.6463.640.040.04
North CarolinaACC0.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
UNC GreensboroSC0.130.1337.9337.93-0.03-0.03
MercerASun0.130.1374.1974.190.060.06
Florida St.ACC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
CreightonBE0.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
ClemsonACC0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
VirginiaACC0.110.1182.3582.350.070.07
YaleIvy0.110.1151.8551.850.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.110.1151.5251.520.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.110.1122.5822.58-0.06-0.06
Georgia SouthernSC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
WinthropBSth0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
NJITind0.100.1036.0036.00-0.03-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
GeorgiaSEC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
East Tennessee St.ASun0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
LipscombASun0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
HartfordAE0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.100.1046.1546.15-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.100.1073.5373.530.050.05
VillanovaBE0.100.1087.5087.500.070.07
FIUCUSA0.100.1046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Boston UniversityPat0.090.0970.5970.590.040.04
Seton HallBE0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
MarquetteBE0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
Texas St.SB0.090.0920.6920.69-0.05-0.05
WyomingMWC0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
HofstraCAA0.090.0930.3030.30-0.04-0.04
San Jose St.MWC0.090.0917.2417.24-0.06-0.06
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
SyracuseACC0.090.0984.3884.380.060.06
SamfordSC0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
The CitadelSC0.080.0813.7913.79-0.06-0.06
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
DuquesneA100.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
MichiganB100.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
BradleyMVC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.070.0736.3636.36-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.070.0717.8617.86-0.05-0.05
UTSACUSA0.070.0722.2222.22-0.04-0.04
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0780.6580.650.040.04
Virginia TechACC0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Boise St.MWC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0787.1087.100.050.05
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LehighPat0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.070.0786.2186.210.050.05
Loyola MDPat0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
WashingtonP120.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
ElonSC0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
BinghamtonAE0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
New HampshireAE0.060.0617.2417.24-0.04-0.04
Stony BrookAE0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
UMBCAE0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
VermontAE0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
High PointBSth0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
LibertyBSth0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
RadfordBSth0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
VMIBSth0.050.0555.5655.560.010.01
DavidsonSC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
IdahoWAC0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
LSUSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0546.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
PennIvy0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
SienaMAAC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
TexasB120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
TulsaCUSA0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
DrexelCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
UICHorz0.050.0513.7913.79-0.03-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.050.0570.3770.370.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
TCUB120.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
UNLVMWC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.040.0441.9441.94-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.040.043.703.70-0.04-0.04
FairfieldMAAC0.040.0421.8821.88-0.03-0.03
KentuckySEC0.040.0470.5970.590.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.040.0461.2961.290.010.01
Notre DameACC0.040.0446.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckySB0.040.0461.2961.290.010.01
FurmanSC0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.030.0358.6258.620.010.01
BrownIvy0.030.0351.8551.850.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.030.0377.7877.780.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
BelmontOVC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
IUPUISum0.020.0210.3410.34-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
MinnesotaB100.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
MississippiSEC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.020.0259.2659.260.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.020.0221.2121.21-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0241.1841.18-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
TulaneCUSA0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.020.02100.00100.000.020.02
WisconsinB100.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
USCP120.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01