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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.


Cincinnati

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:89.8
Current RPI:99
Expected SOS:110
Current SOS:128
Current Record:16-7
Expected Record:20-11
Current Conf Record:6-4
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Probability of Auto Bid:2.21%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-1
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:163
Expected OOC SOS:320



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-747.70.51%
23-857.73.82%
22-968.713.76%
21-1081.126.27%
20-1193.428.50%
19-12105.318.12%
18-13117.57.17%
17-14130.41.72%
16-15144.40.12%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cincinnati.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Alabama St. (301.5)SWACH65-40W100%0.0
11-15Jacksonville St. (252.5)OVCH73-59W100%0.0
11-19Presbyterian (253.5)BSthH54-56L0%0.0
11-21Northwestern St. (178.3)SlndH71-43W100%0.0
11-25Marshall (61.3)CUSAH69-73L0%0.0
11-29Miami OH (210.4)MACH56-47W100%0.0
12-2Georgia (132.0)SECA51-57W100%0.0
12-10Xavier (55.8)A10A76-53L0%0.0
12-14Wright St. (216.3)HorzA58-78W100%0.0
12-17Radford (335.2)BSthH101-70W100%0.0
12-21Arkansas Pine Bluff (327.1)SWACH101-53W100%0.0
12-23Chicago St. (335.8)GWCH95-60W100%0.0
12-29Oklahoma (89.8)B12H56-55W100%0.0
1-1Pittsburgh (74.5)BEA63-66W100%0.0
1-4Notre Dame (66.5)BEH71-55W100%0.0
1-7St. John's (151.1)BEH55-57L0%0.0
1-9Georgetown (13.9)BEA64-68W100%0.0
1-14Villanova (98.5)BEH82-78W100%0.0
1-18Connecticut (27.1)BEA67-70W100%0.0
1-21West Virginia (31.4)BEA77-74L0%0.0
1-23Syracuse (2.1)BEH53-60L0%0.0
1-28Rutgers (141.7)BEA61-54L0%0.0
2-4DePaul (187.2)BEH74-66W100%0.0
2-8St. John's (151.1)BEA0-065%4.1
2-11Marquette (15.5)BEA0-022%-8.2
2-15Providence (146.8)BEH0-081%9.4
2-18Seton Hall (53.1)BEH0-065%4.2
2-23Louisville (25.3)BEH0-050%0.1
2-26South Florida (96.1)BEA0-057%1.9
2-29Marquette (15.5)BEH0-045%-1.5
3-3Villanova (98.5)BEA0-045%-1.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cincinnati's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Cincinnati's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Cincinnati.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
CincinnatiBE26.1326.0064.7661.887.716.18
MarquetteBE0.343.7379.1776.640.201.99
VillanovaBE2.363.7347.6247.40-0.11-0.19
St. John'sBE2.473.7140.9138.39-0.45-0.86
DePaulBE2.562.2252.3844.310.12-0.25
GeorgetownBE2.462.1985.0080.251.721.33
SyracuseBE2.512.1795.6591.742.291.81
West VirginiaBE2.602.1763.6464.010.710.61
Notre DameBE2.462.1768.1864.740.890.64
South FloridaBE0.342.1754.5548.800.03-0.05
ProvidenceBE0.282.1456.5251.300.040.06
LouisvilleBE0.342.1478.2673.430.191.00
PittsburghBE2.462.1463.6460.100.670.43
RutgersBE2.512.1447.8345.04-0.11-0.21
Seton HallBE0.342.1465.2264.720.100.63
ConnecticutBE2.462.1471.4366.201.050.69
Jacksonville St.OVC2.381.7536.3639.85-0.65-0.36
MarshallCUSA2.421.7557.1458.280.350.29
Alabama St.SWAC2.371.7531.5838.68-0.87-0.40
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC2.321.7318.1825.22-1.48-0.86
Northwestern St.Slnd2.371.7357.8956.490.370.22
PresbyterianBSth2.221.7038.1041.57-0.53-0.29
RadfordBSth2.221.679.0913.57-1.82-1.22
XavierA102.281.6763.6462.490.620.42
Miami OHMAC2.271.6731.5835.41-0.84-0.49
GeorgiaSEC2.271.6747.6242.62-0.11-0.25
OklahomaB122.231.6461.9056.580.530.22
Wright St.Horz2.231.6443.4842.01-0.29-0.26
Chicago St.GWC2.221.645.0010.31-2.00-1.30
WinthropBSth0.190.1934.7834.61-0.06-0.06
VanderbiltSEC0.150.1969.5765.870.060.06
MemphisCUSA0.200.1769.5771.510.080.07
SouthernSWAC0.150.1645.0046.13-0.01-0.01
St. LouisA100.200.1677.2777.670.110.09
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.250.1650.0058.160.000.03
MissouriB120.200.1691.3087.180.170.12
DetroitHorz0.190.1647.8349.03-0.01-0.00
KentuckySEC0.140.1695.8392.570.130.14
CampbellBSth0.200.1456.0055.650.020.02
High PointBSth0.200.1431.8232.75-0.07-0.05
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.150.1433.3338.38-0.05-0.03
Virginia Military InstBSth0.190.1445.0044.15-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.150.1481.8277.200.090.08
AkronMAC0.200.1468.1867.910.070.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.150.1419.0525.52-0.09-0.07
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.150.1419.0524.61-0.09-0.07
Alcorn St.SWAC0.150.1416.6723.02-0.10-0.07
FloridaSEC0.190.1382.6177.630.120.07
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.090.1356.5257.720.010.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.150.1155.0060.330.010.02
LibertyBSth0.140.1127.2727.21-0.07-0.05
NC AshevilleBSth0.150.1168.1867.640.050.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.150.1117.6527.10-0.10-0.05
GramblingSWAC0.100.1115.0015.73-0.07-0.08
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.100.1135.0040.78-0.03-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.1131.8242.13-0.04-0.02
DaytonA100.100.1160.8760.960.020.02
KansasB120.150.1178.2678.390.090.06
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.190.1119.0521.29-0.12-0.06
South CarolinaSEC0.050.1140.9139.56-0.01-0.02
CharlotteA100.140.1150.0049.450.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.1162.5062.490.020.03
AuburnSEC0.100.1156.5248.810.01-0.00
ButlerHorz0.140.1150.0050.800.000.00
La SalleA100.140.1170.8368.820.060.04
TennesseeSEC0.200.1145.4544.66-0.02-0.01
MississippiSEC0.100.1163.6456.710.030.01
Oral RobertsSum0.190.1180.7780.750.120.07
Texas A&MB120.100.1152.3846.150.00-0.01
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.050.1135.0039.38-0.01-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.140.1145.4540.70-0.01-0.02
FordhamA100.140.1040.9134.50-0.03-0.03
Louisiana St.SEC0.050.1059.0957.280.010.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.1068.1869.680.000.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0926.3229.71-0.04-0.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.100.0947.6247.18-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0956.5253.100.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.150.0972.2271.970.060.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.100.0847.6248.82-0.00-0.00
BelmontASun0.150.0869.5773.280.060.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0834.7838.77-0.01-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.100.0871.4369.050.040.03
LamarSlnd0.050.0861.9067.230.010.03
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0845.4546.99-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.084.359.66-0.04-0.07
Tennessee TechOVC0.140.0860.8759.760.030.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.150.0840.9138.38-0.03-0.02
TulaneCUSA0.140.0861.9058.590.030.01
AmericanPat0.100.0865.2263.790.030.02
Central FloridaCUSA0.100.0871.4366.600.040.03
Southern MississippiCUSA0.050.0885.7182.180.040.05
Air ForceMWC0.140.0847.3742.16-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.0878.2672.340.060.04
DelawareCAA0.100.0847.8350.65-0.000.00
DukeACC0.100.0886.3683.090.070.05
William & MaryCAA0.100.0812.5013.44-0.08-0.06
ArkansasSEC0.100.0869.5765.150.040.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0881.8280.430.030.05
Santa ClaraWCC0.100.0828.5726.30-0.04-0.04
TempleA100.050.0877.2775.060.030.04
Texas TechB120.100.0831.8225.98-0.04-0.04
BaylorB120.100.0890.9183.850.080.05
Iowa St.B120.050.0873.9168.430.020.03
Kansas St.B120.150.0872.7368.280.070.03
MonmouthNEC0.090.0828.0028.91-0.04-0.03
PennsylvaniaIvy0.100.0854.5556.840.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.090.0871.4373.350.040.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0856.5255.950.010.01
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.090.0813.6416.35-0.07-0.05
Arkansas Little RockSB0.110.0643.4844.25-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.110.0655.0057.410.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0668.4266.450.020.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.110.0627.7829.87-0.05-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.100.0650.0051.730.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.110.0645.4544.02-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistGWC0.050.0625.0028.52-0.03-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0641.1842.61-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0625.0023.75-0.03-0.03
North DakotaGWC0.050.0633.3341.31-0.02-0.01
South Carolina UpstateASun0.090.0654.5556.090.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0627.7829.58-0.02-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0647.0650.75-0.000.00
ToledoMAC0.110.0638.1040.81-0.03-0.01
Utah ValleyGWC0.050.0654.5557.690.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.100.0668.1869.100.040.02
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0628.5734.20-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.100.0647.6248.83-0.00-0.00
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.050.0635.0035.31-0.01-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.065.267.30-0.04-0.05
Ohio St.B100.100.0686.9685.460.070.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.100.0634.7832.06-0.03-0.02
East CarolinaCUSA0.000.0644.4441.71-0.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.100.0640.9139.82-0.02-0.01
Florida InternationalSB0.100.0533.3337.16-0.03-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.100.0562.5062.060.020.01
IUPUISum0.050.0534.7835.50-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0526.3229.79-0.02-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.100.0518.1821.13-0.06-0.03
HoustonCUSA0.050.0547.6244.63-0.00-0.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0534.7833.43-0.01-0.02
Penn St.B100.050.0541.6738.67-0.01-0.01
MarylandACC0.090.0559.0950.820.020.00
Southern MethodistCUSA0.050.0538.1037.86-0.01-0.01
Texas El PasoCUSA0.100.0543.4843.31-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityAE0.050.0548.0051.88-0.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.0542.1149.81-0.02-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.090.0530.0030.06-0.04-0.02
MercerASun0.050.0570.8371.640.020.02
TexasB120.000.0560.8761.370.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.050.0542.8639.66-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.090.0565.2263.610.030.01
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.000.0580.0078.060.000.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0550.0051.530.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.0535.2939.85-0.03-0.01
DuquesneA100.090.0559.0956.350.020.01
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0554.5554.300.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.0519.0522.37-0.00-0.03
George WashingtonA100.090.0534.7832.08-0.03-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.090.0581.8281.490.060.03
Holy CrossPat0.050.0540.9142.05-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.100.0550.0049.730.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.0520.8320.60-0.00-0.03
RichmondA100.050.0550.0048.490.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.100.0510.0014.93-0.08-0.04
WagnerNEC0.100.0582.6184.570.060.04
AlbanyAE0.090.0560.0060.420.020.01
ArizonaP120.050.0566.6768.550.020.02
BryantNEC0.050.058.3310.86-0.04-0.04
DartmouthIvy0.090.0514.2917.17-0.07-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.058.7012.13-0.00-0.04
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0517.3922.00-0.00-0.03
LehighPat0.050.0573.9174.910.020.03
Miami FLACC0.090.0565.0060.020.030.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0526.0928.60-0.00-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.050.0547.8348.56-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0530.0031.54-0.00-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.090.0544.0045.89-0.01-0.00
UCLAP120.000.0554.5556.790.000.01
WashingtonP120.000.0569.5766.540.000.02
WisconsinB100.000.0575.0073.970.000.02
ArmyPat0.050.0340.9141.72-0.01-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0333.3335.97-0.02-0.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0350.0048.360.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0366.6760.800.020.01
CreightonMVC0.050.0387.5085.410.040.02
DavidsonSC0.050.0376.1976.760.030.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0333.3334.47-0.02-0.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0318.1822.22-0.03-0.02
IllinoisB100.050.0372.7364.430.020.01
IowaB100.050.0354.1749.440.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.038.708.99-0.04-0.02
Louisiana TechWAC0.050.0342.8643.45-0.01-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.050.03100.0094.550.050.03
NavyPat0.050.039.5213.19-0.04-0.02
NC GreensboroSC0.050.0334.7833.46-0.02-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0333.3337.25-0.02-0.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0363.6463.160.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0385.7178.050.040.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0352.3857.860.000.00
Texas ArlingtonSlnd0.000.0376.1975.940.000.01
Texas San AntonioSlnd0.050.0357.1460.750.010.01
Texas St.Slnd0.050.0322.2227.62-0.03-0.01
TroySB0.050.0328.5730.17-0.02-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.050.0380.0076.840.030.02
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0334.7837.24-0.02-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0340.9142.96-0.01-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0382.6180.420.030.02
BinghamtonAE0.000.030.004.02-0.00-0.03
George MasonCAA0.050.0376.0072.500.020.01
IonaMAAC0.050.0379.1780.100.030.02
Long IslandNEC0.050.0370.8371.050.020.01
NC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0339.1336.10-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0347.6246.46-0.00-0.00
TulsaCUSA0.050.0360.8759.050.010.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0330.4331.43-0.02-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.050.0350.0056.760.000.00
CaliforniaP120.050.0375.0074.610.020.01
ColoradoP120.050.0366.6762.650.020.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0355.0054.800.000.00
Florida AtlanticSB0.000.0336.3639.72-0.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0372.7371.710.020.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.000.0340.0041.30-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.050.0339.1342.12-0.01-0.00
HarvardIvy0.050.0390.4887.910.040.02
HawaiiWAC0.050.0357.1453.120.010.00
IdahoWAC0.050.0347.6251.08-0.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0333.3333.88-0.02-0.01
Longwoodind0.000.0330.0027.84-0.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0373.9168.580.000.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0369.5761.310.020.01
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.000.0334.7835.20-0.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0325.0037.58-0.02-0.01
North FloridaASun0.050.0345.8346.68-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0361.9055.140.000.00
Old DominionCAA0.000.0360.0058.290.000.00
PurdueB100.050.0365.2260.580.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0330.0033.20-0.02-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0373.9175.490.020.01
Southern CaliforniaP120.050.0325.0025.13-0.02-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0360.0059.060.010.00
St. Peter'sMAAC0.000.0321.7424.58-0.00-0.01
VermontAE0.000.0360.0062.490.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0347.8343.66-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.050.0350.0048.170.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.050.0359.0957.930.010.00
YaleIvy0.000.0372.2263.190.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0337.5038.33-0.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0330.4326.44-0.00-0.01
BrownIvy0.000.0327.2723.80-0.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.050.0373.9175.000.020.01
ColgatePat0.050.0330.4329.50-0.02-0.01
College of CharlestonSC0.000.0358.3359.980.000.01
HamptonMEAC0.050.0336.3638.48-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.050.0375.0075.780.020.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0368.0069.070.020.01
MichiganB100.050.0372.7366.810.020.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0354.1757.200.000.00
New HampshireAE0.000.0335.0038.58-0.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0369.5768.900.020.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0370.8364.420.020.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0362.5061.500.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.050.0347.3752.87-0.000.00
RiderMAAC0.050.0337.5038.52-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0368.0070.030.020.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0321.7422.76-0.03-0.01
StanfordP120.050.0369.5768.290.020.01
Stony BrookAE0.050.0366.6768.050.020.01
Virginia TechACC0.050.0356.5255.200.010.00
Western KentuckySB0.000.0334.7834.48-0.00-0.01