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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Cincinnati

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:12.0
Current RPI:12
Expected SOS:63
Current SOS:63
Current Record:29-5
Expected Record:29-5
Current Conf Record:18-3
Expected Conf Record:18-3
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:15-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-0
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:13
Expected OOC SOS:31



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
29-512.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cincinnati.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Brown (284.0)IvyH84-55W100%0.0
11-14Albany (129.0)AEH74-51W100%0.0
11-19Rhode Island (31.0)A10N76-71L0%0.0
11-20Penn St. (101.0)B10N71-50W100%0.0
11-23Samford (170.0)SCH70-55W100%0.0
11-26Lipscomb (189.0)ASunH91-68W100%0.0
12-1Iowa St. (21.0)B12A54-55W100%0.0
12-4Bowling Green (225.0)MACH85-56W100%0.0
12-10Butler (15.0)BEA75-65L0%0.0
12-13Texas Southern (108.0)SWACH96-58W100%0.0
12-17Fairleigh Dickinson (273.0)NECH119-68W100%0.0
12-22Marshall (112.0)CUSAH93-91W100%0.0
12-28Temple (137.0)AmerA50-56W100%0.0
1-1Tulane (296.0)AmerH92-56W100%0.0
1-7Houston (54.0)AmerA58-67W100%0.0
1-12SMU (13.0)AmerH66-64W100%0.0
1-15East Carolina (213.0)AmerA46-55W100%0.0
1-18Temple (137.0)AmerH81-74W100%0.0
1-21Tulane (296.0)AmerA61-78W100%0.0
1-26Xavier (37.0)BEH86-78W100%0.0
1-29South Florida (316.0)AmerH94-53W100%0.0
2-1Tulsa (134.0)AmerA55-57W100%0.0
2-4Connecticut (118.0)AmerH82-68W100%0.0
2-8UCF (68.0)AmerH60-50W100%0.0
2-12SMU (13.0)AmerA60-51L0%0.0
2-15South Florida (316.0)AmerA54-68W100%0.0
2-18Tulsa (134.0)AmerH80-60W100%0.0
2-23Memphis (120.0)AmerH87-74W100%0.0
2-26UCF (68.0)AmerA53-49L0%0.0
3-2Houston (54.0)AmerH65-47W100%0.0
3-5Connecticut (118.0)AmerA47-67W100%0.0
3-10Tulsa (134.0)AmerN80-61W100%0.0
3-11Connecticut (118.0)AmerA71-81W100%0.0
3-12SMU (13.0)AmerN71-56L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cincinnati's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Cincinnati's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Cincinnati.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
CincinnatiAmer26.4326.4386.9986.9919.5519.55
SMUAmer5.255.2590.3290.324.234.23
ConnecticutAmer5.225.2251.7251.720.180.18
TulsaAmer5.175.1751.7251.720.180.18
HoustonAmer3.813.8172.4172.411.711.71
UCFAmer3.793.7966.6766.671.261.26
TulaneAmer3.773.7720.6920.69-2.21-2.21
South FloridaAmer3.773.7725.0025.00-1.88-1.88
TempleAmer3.723.7253.3353.330.250.25
East CarolinaAmer2.482.4846.8846.88-0.16-0.16
MemphisAmer2.422.4261.2961.290.550.55
AlbanyAE1.581.5862.5062.500.400.40
Rhode IslandA101.541.5471.8871.880.680.68
XavierBE1.541.5463.6463.640.420.42
ButlerBE1.541.5473.3373.330.720.72
BrownIvy1.521.5240.7440.74-0.28-0.28
LipscombASun1.501.5058.6258.620.260.26
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC1.501.5035.7135.71-0.43-0.43
Penn St.B101.491.4946.8846.88-0.09-0.09
Bowling GreenMAC1.471.4740.0040.00-0.29-0.29
Iowa St.B121.471.4771.8871.880.640.64
MarshallCUSA1.471.4757.5857.580.220.22
SamfordSC1.471.4754.8454.840.140.14
Texas SouthernSWAC1.471.4769.7069.700.580.58
Oklahoma St.B120.200.2061.2961.290.050.05
George WashingtonA100.190.1957.5857.580.030.03
VillanovaBE0.180.1891.1891.180.150.15
ProvidenceBE0.160.1662.5062.500.040.04
St. John'sBE0.160.1642.4242.42-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.160.1643.7543.75-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.160.1628.1228.12-0.07-0.07
TCUB120.150.1554.5554.550.010.01
NJITASun0.150.1531.0331.03-0.06-0.06
WagnerNEC0.140.1451.7251.720.000.00
PennIvy0.140.1446.4346.43-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.140.1436.6736.67-0.04-0.04
Ohio St.B100.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
VermontAE0.140.1484.8584.850.100.10
Illinois St.MVC0.140.1481.2581.250.090.09
MassachusettsA100.140.1445.4545.45-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.140.1419.2319.23-0.08-0.08
CornellIvy0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
YaleIvy0.120.1260.7160.710.030.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.120.1244.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
StetsonASun0.120.1227.5927.59-0.05-0.05
New OrleansSlnd0.120.1260.7160.710.020.02
Texas St.SB0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
Seton HallBE0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
OklahomaB120.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
West VirginiaB120.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
CreightonBE0.110.1172.7372.730.050.05
La SalleA100.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
PittsburghACC0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.100.1061.5461.540.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.100.1010.0010.00-0.08-0.08
Kennesaw St.ASun0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.090.0917.8617.86-0.06-0.06
MissouriSEC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Miami OHMAC0.090.0930.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Stony BrookAE0.090.0958.0658.060.020.02
ToledoMAC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.090.0928.5728.57-0.04-0.04
George MasonA100.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
MarquetteBE0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.090.0958.6258.620.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.090.0941.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.090.0941.3841.38-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.090.0977.4277.420.050.05
Grambling St.SWAC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.090.0968.5768.570.030.03
Old DominionCUSA0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
BryantNEC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
ColumbiaIvy0.070.0738.4638.46-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.070.0725.9325.93-0.04-0.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
BelmontOVC0.070.0777.7877.780.040.04
South DakotaSum0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
MaineAE0.070.0719.3519.35-0.04-0.04
MaristMAAC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
RutgersB100.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
AkronMAC0.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
BuffaloMAC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
LSUSEC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
AuburnSEC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
Florida St.ACC0.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
FurmanSC0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
Little RockSB0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0737.0437.04-0.02-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0721.4321.43-0.04-0.04
OregonP120.070.0784.8584.850.050.05
Oregon St.P120.070.0712.9012.90-0.05-0.05
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
SyracuseACC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
VMISC0.070.0714.2914.29-0.05-0.05
Wichita St.MVC0.070.0787.8887.880.050.05
IndianaB100.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
MercerSC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0758.6258.620.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
IowaB100.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.076.906.90-0.06-0.06
DavidsonA100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
HartfordAE0.070.0728.1228.12-0.03-0.03
UABCUSA0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.0721.8821.88-0.04-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.060.0662.0762.070.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0687.8887.880.050.05
StanfordP120.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0618.5218.52-0.04-0.04
USCP120.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
PrincetonIvy0.050.0578.5778.570.030.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0555.1755.170.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
SeattleWAC0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
WoffordSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.050.0588.2488.240.030.03
UtahP120.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.040.0431.0331.03-0.02-0.02
ColgatePat0.040.0429.0329.03-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.040.0476.6776.670.020.02
DukeACC0.040.0477.1477.140.020.02
DuquesneA100.040.0431.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.040.0468.9768.970.020.02
Holy CrossPat0.040.0446.8846.88-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.040.0454.8454.840.000.00
KansasB120.040.0487.5087.500.030.03
Kansas St.B120.040.0460.6160.610.010.01
Michigan St.B100.040.0457.5857.580.010.01
MinnesotaB100.040.0472.7372.730.020.02
NebraskaB100.040.0436.6736.67-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.040.0478.1278.120.030.03
St. BonaventureA100.040.0462.5062.500.010.01
TexasB120.040.0433.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.040.0456.2556.250.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.040.0433.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.040.0457.1457.140.010.01
VCUA100.040.0476.4776.470.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.040.0473.3373.330.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.040.0420.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.040.0467.7467.740.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.040.0444.8344.83-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.040.0464.5264.520.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.040.0446.8846.88-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
TowsonCAA0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
BucknellPat0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.020.0232.0032.00-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0229.4129.41-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.020.0281.8281.820.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.020.0283.3383.330.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
DrakeMVC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.020.0296.9796.970.020.02
HamptonMEAC0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Miami FLACC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.023.333.33-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.020.0210.7110.71-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
SienaMAAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
VirginiaACC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
WisconsinB100.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
ClemsonACC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
ColoradoP120.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
FIUCUSA0.020.0217.2417.24-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.020.0261.2961.290.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.020.0261.2961.290.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0260.7160.710.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.020.0238.7138.71-0.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00