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Through games of Dec 20, 2014.


Cincinnati

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:67.8
Current RPI:76
Expected SOS:76
Current SOS:58
Current Record:7-3
Expected Record:20-11
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-1
Current OOC Record:7-3
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:73
Expected OOC SOS:37



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-415.00.03%
26-516.90.15%
25-621.40.70%
24-726.62.43%
23-833.36.46%
22-942.212.76%
21-1052.418.03%
20-1165.220.20%
19-1279.317.81%
18-1394.611.95%
17-14111.05.84%
16-15127.52.48%
15-16149.10.86%
14-17163.90.23%
13-18180.80.05%
12-19182.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cincinnati.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14St. Francis PA (124.8)NECH52-37W100%0.0
11-19Morehead St. (251.3)OVCH69-61W100%0.0
11-23Eastern Illinois (238.0)OVCH54-49W100%0.0
11-25North Carolina Central (142.9)MEACH59-50W100%0.0
11-28Middle Tennessee (199.7)CUSAN69-51W100%0.0
11-29Mississippi (101.2)SECN66-54L0%0.0
12-2Stony Brook (140.4)AEH78-52W100%0.0
12-13Nebraska (101.4)B10A56-55L0%0.0
12-17San Diego St. (35.4)MWCH71-62W100%0.0
12-20VCU (17.1)A10H47-68L0%0.0
12-23Wagner (285.5)NECH0-093%17.5
12-30North Carolina St. (48.9)ACCA0-022%-8.8
1-3SMU (26.6)AmerH0-047%-0.8
1-6East Carolina (231.8)AmerH0-088%13.8
1-10Connecticut (72.3)AmerA0-034%-4.7
1-15Memphis (80.4)AmerA0-037%-3.8
1-17Temple (103.9)AmerH0-075%7.9
1-21Houston (245.1)AmerH0-091%15.4
1-25UCF (253.0)AmerA0-077%8.8
1-29Connecticut (72.3)AmerH0-062%3.6
2-1East Carolina (231.8)AmerA0-068%5.5
2-5SMU (26.6)AmerA0-022%-9.2
2-7South Florida (193.8)AmerH0-085%12.1
2-10Temple (103.9)AmerA0-048%-0.5
2-14Tulane (155.0)AmerH0-082%10.6
2-18Xavier (27.1)BEH0-038%-3.6
2-21Houston (245.1)AmerA0-073%7.0
2-25UCF (253.0)AmerH0-093%17.2
2-28Tulane (155.0)AmerA0-058%2.3
3-4Tulsa (108.5)AmerA0-046%-1.2
3-8Memphis (80.4)AmerH0-065%4.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cincinnati's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Cincinnati's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Cincinnati.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
CincinnatiAmer27.5026.2960.5361.975.796.29
MemphisAmer0.254.0660.0063.000.051.05
UCFAmer0.004.0155.5637.520.00-1.00
TempleAmer0.004.0063.6457.670.000.61
HoustonAmer0.003.9962.5043.520.00-0.52
ConnecticutAmer0.003.9950.0058.520.000.68
East CarolinaAmer0.003.9933.3339.09-0.00-0.87
SMUAmer0.003.9972.7376.460.002.11
TulaneAmer0.003.9988.8957.760.000.62
South FloridaAmer0.002.5240.0042.23-0.00-0.39
TulsaAmer0.002.4860.0056.720.000.33
North Carolina CentralMEAC5.251.6955.5674.000.580.81
Eastern IllinoisOVC5.251.6744.4444.70-0.58-0.18
St. Francis PANEC5.001.6762.5067.621.250.59
WagnerNEC0.001.6712.5031.45-0.00-0.62
Morehead St.OVC5.001.6418.1838.53-3.18-0.38
North Carolina St.ACC0.001.6475.0060.940.000.36
Middle TennesseeCUSA5.001.6155.5649.530.56-0.02
MississippiSEC5.001.6166.6751.021.670.03
NebraskaB105.001.6162.5042.671.25-0.24
San Diego St.MWC5.001.6180.0075.083.000.81
Stony BrookAE5.001.6137.5057.21-1.250.23
VCUA105.001.6170.0074.932.000.80
XavierBE0.001.6172.7367.770.000.57
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.2220.0027.29-0.00-0.10
CreightonBE1.280.2275.0052.140.640.01
Murray St.OVC0.250.2060.0065.120.050.06
LIU BrooklynNEC0.280.2033.3345.04-0.09-0.02
BryantNEC0.000.1728.5745.89-0.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.1742.8649.02-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.210.1672.7367.520.090.06
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.250.149.0917.12-0.20-0.09
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1444.4449.14-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.1420.0045.74-0.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.280.1454.5541.980.03-0.02
BelmontOVC0.480.1463.6464.880.130.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1416.6743.20-0.00-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.750.140.0034.33-0.75-0.04
ColumbiaIvy0.280.1466.6767.930.090.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1450.0037.570.00-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.250.1472.7374.850.110.07
AmericanPat0.490.1463.6463.240.130.04
Boise St.MWC0.000.1477.7872.890.000.06
UNLVMWC0.210.1366.6749.560.07-0.00
DukeACC0.000.13100.0087.090.000.10
VillanovaBE0.230.13100.0082.970.230.09
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.1218.1830.76-0.00-0.05
Tennessee MartinOVC0.280.1266.6764.770.090.03
MarylandB100.250.1290.9168.230.200.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.120.0011.94-0.00-0.09
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.1218.1827.33-0.00-0.05
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.1237.5039.65-0.00-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.1233.3341.20-0.00-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1230.0039.59-0.00-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.1255.5660.980.000.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.1230.0043.15-0.00-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.1122.2229.80-0.00-0.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1140.0046.19-0.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1118.1820.86-0.00-0.07
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.110.0015.00-0.00-0.08
WashingtonP120.230.11100.0075.440.230.06
DavidsonA100.000.1188.8977.320.000.06
USC UpstateASun0.000.1163.6467.210.000.04
HofstraCAA0.280.1170.0076.180.110.06
Fresno St.MWC0.000.1127.2729.17-0.00-0.05
WyomingMWC0.000.1180.0073.540.000.05
Northern ArizonaBSky0.750.1136.3648.28-0.20-0.00
UABCUSA0.210.1130.0036.69-0.08-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.000.1180.0072.200.000.05
GonzagaWCC0.000.1190.9190.540.000.09
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.1144.4437.40-0.00-0.03
St. John'sBE0.000.1188.8965.170.000.03
Wake ForestACC0.000.1145.4537.60-0.00-0.03
AuburnSEC0.000.1150.0039.790.00-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.250.1188.8963.020.190.03
FloridaSEC0.000.1163.6465.220.000.03
DaytonA100.000.1180.0069.770.000.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0912.5026.89-0.00-0.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0950.0068.770.000.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0916.6735.27-0.00-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0927.2735.36-0.00-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.760.0838.4644.61-0.17-0.01
DetroitHorz0.000.0840.0048.02-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0866.6762.580.000.02
AlbanyAE0.280.0840.0055.01-0.060.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0866.6754.470.000.01
IndianaB100.000.0881.8263.330.000.02
MaineAE0.000.0811.1120.80-0.00-0.05
MichiganB100.000.0850.0040.450.00-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0850.0058.370.000.01
VermontAE0.000.0844.4457.69-0.000.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.210.0871.4363.770.090.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.080.0014.00-0.00-0.06
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0814.2915.15-0.00-0.06
Green BayHorz0.210.0875.0077.010.100.05
TexasB120.280.0890.9179.980.230.05
RiceCUSA0.000.0816.6726.98-0.00-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0836.3646.72-0.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.250.0830.0029.75-0.10-0.03
PennIvy0.000.0837.5032.63-0.00-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.530.0850.0051.710.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.280.0862.5059.050.070.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0840.0044.08-0.00-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.280.0875.0057.390.140.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0887.5085.480.000.06
West VirginiaB120.000.0890.9170.080.000.03
AlabamaSEC0.000.0866.6754.130.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.230.0836.3650.71-0.060.00
Seton HallBE0.000.0890.0067.380.000.03
La SalleA100.000.0854.5552.730.000.00
RichmondA100.000.0860.0057.700.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0860.0043.160.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0866.6778.020.000.04
TennesseeSEC0.230.0855.5646.290.03-0.01
VirginiaACC0.230.08100.0086.080.230.06
UC DavisBW0.500.0687.5068.000.380.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0023.69-0.00-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.250.0633.3337.22-0.08-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.0675.0065.140.000.02
IowaB100.000.0666.6759.420.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0680.0067.830.000.02
RutgersB100.280.0654.5532.590.03-0.02
StetsonASun0.000.0610.0027.17-0.00-0.03
WisconsinB100.000.0690.9188.840.000.04
Ball St.MAC0.480.0625.0037.03-0.24-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.280.060.0017.69-0.28-0.04
Incarnate WordSlnd0.280.0680.0076.450.170.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.490.0633.3343.14-0.16-0.01
Ohio St.B100.210.0681.8282.250.130.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0633.3349.35-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.000.0627.2728.86-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0618.1837.71-0.00-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.060.0011.24-0.00-0.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0660.0076.250.000.03
HartfordAE0.000.0650.0050.620.000.00
HarvardIvy0.000.0685.7172.910.000.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.0616.6736.63-0.00-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0663.6455.660.000.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0614.2935.86-0.00-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0675.0058.760.000.01
New HampshireAE0.000.0650.0060.410.000.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0633.3340.63-0.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0620.0052.97-0.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0637.5063.95-0.000.02
UMass LowellAE0.000.0650.0050.490.000.00
UMBCAE0.000.0618.1825.30-0.00-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0614.2944.44-0.00-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0620.0035.33-0.00-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0657.1455.330.000.01
DuquesneA100.280.0537.5034.06-0.07-0.02
PurdueB100.000.0566.6759.370.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.280.0566.6773.310.090.03
MarshallCUSA0.210.0522.2236.53-0.12-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0550.0055.890.000.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0545.4545.10-0.00-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.05100.0078.210.000.03
FIUCUSA0.000.0544.4450.41-0.000.00
NevadaMWC0.000.0511.1125.48-0.00-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.000.0572.7362.220.000.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0542.8626.99-0.00-0.02
StanfordP120.000.0566.6758.320.000.01
YaleIvy0.000.0566.6761.820.000.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0510.0018.05-0.00-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.230.0590.0082.310.180.03
PittsburghACC0.230.0570.0051.780.090.00
San DiegoWCC0.230.0554.5557.570.020.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0560.0071.280.000.02
BaylorB120.000.0590.0073.240.000.02
BradleyMVC0.000.0533.3334.04-0.00-0.02
ButlerBE0.000.0572.7367.960.000.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.250.0542.8649.51-0.04-0.00
ClemsonACC0.000.0560.0043.890.00-0.01
DelawareCAA0.000.050.008.56-0.00-0.04
DePaulBE0.000.0560.0034.160.00-0.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0566.6765.500.000.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.0570.0059.220.000.01
KansasB120.000.0590.0070.680.000.02
LSUSEC0.000.0580.0063.910.000.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0560.0048.980.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0540.0032.26-0.00-0.02
OregonP120.480.0570.0057.440.190.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.050.0039.10-0.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0560.0033.270.00-0.02
TowsonCAA0.000.0560.0047.170.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0537.5031.88-0.00-0.02
George MasonA100.000.0533.3330.21-0.00-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.0345.4549.62-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.250.0330.0043.74-0.10-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0354.5559.560.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.250.0342.8633.27-0.04-0.01
LafayettePat0.000.0366.6767.650.000.01
LehighPat0.280.0344.4454.06-0.030.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0366.6767.300.000.01
NavyPat0.280.0320.0022.16-0.17-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.280.0344.4455.37-0.030.00
NJITind0.000.0341.6743.68-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0363.6442.810.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.000.0391.6755.310.000.00
RiderMAAC0.000.0350.0053.250.000.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0342.8637.83-0.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.280.0355.5662.150.030.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0337.5049.31-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.000.0333.3328.13-0.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.210.0327.2732.45-0.09-0.01
OklahomaB120.000.0370.0062.710.000.01
PresbyterianBSth0.210.030.008.60-0.21-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.280.0333.3341.02-0.09-0.00
AkronMAC0.250.0360.0056.150.050.00
ArizonaP120.230.03100.0082.630.230.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0375.0067.140.000.01
BYUWCC0.230.0370.0068.340.090.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.230.0316.6733.39-0.15-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.230.0318.1822.49-0.14-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0354.5564.070.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.250.0340.0049.39-0.05-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0342.8636.81-0.00-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.030.008.00-0.00-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.250.030.0031.89-0.25-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.0350.0043.310.00-0.00
UtahP120.230.0380.0080.520.140.02
Utah St.MWC0.000.0354.5548.260.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0337.5035.74-0.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0366.6742.600.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.250.0357.1470.520.040.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0377.7870.160.000.01
FordhamA100.000.0328.5727.11-0.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0380.0053.260.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.230.0360.0061.600.050.01
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0096.290.000.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0084.930.000.02
MassachusettsA100.000.0354.5552.490.000.00
Miami FLACC0.000.0381.8266.010.000.01
Northern IowaMVC0.230.0390.9183.090.190.02
Notre DameACC0.000.0391.6777.120.000.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0366.6766.010.000.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0377.7865.110.000.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0360.0058.120.000.00
TCUB120.250.03100.0067.700.250.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0370.0061.320.000.01
ToledoMAC0.230.0363.6461.520.060.01
TroySB0.250.0333.3339.85-0.08-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0366.6758.210.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.0360.0038.030.00-0.01
WoffordSC0.000.0377.7875.550.000.01