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Through games of Jan 20, 2018.


Cincinnati

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:11.3
Current RPI:25
Expected SOS:71
Current SOS:117
Current Record:17-2
Expected Record:27-4
Current Conf Record:6-0
Expected Conf Record:16-2
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-0
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:40
Expected OOC SOS:207



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
29-25.24.59%
28-36.818.86%
27-48.929.15%
26-512.026.06%
25-616.514.59%
24-722.35.18%
23-829.31.33%
22-938.20.21%
21-1049.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cincinnati.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Savannah St. (246.7)MEACH107-77W100%0.0
11-13Western Carolina (223.5)SCH102-51W100%0.0
11-16Coppin St. (342.3)MEACH97-54W100%0.0
11-20Buffalo (34.0)MACN73-67W100%0.0
11-21Richmond (201.6)A10N75-48W100%0.0
11-22Wyoming (101.5)MWCN78-53W100%0.0
11-27Alabama St. (341.1)SWACH83-51W100%0.0
12-2Xavier (6.2)BEA89-76L0%0.0
12-9Florida (25.9)SECN60-66L0%0.0
12-12Mississippi St. (111.1)SECH65-50W100%0.0
12-16UCLA (63.0)P12A63-77W100%0.0
12-19Arkansas Pine Bluff (307.8)SWACH77-49W100%0.0
12-21Cleveland St. (322.1)HorzH81-62W100%0.0
12-31Memphis (119.3)AmerH82-48W100%0.0
1-4Temple (61.9)AmerA53-55W100%0.0
1-7SMU (41.4)AmerH76-56W100%0.0
1-13South Florida (296.0)AmerA55-78W100%0.0
1-16UCF (67.3)AmerA38-49W100%0.0
1-20East Carolina (279.3)AmerH86-60W100%0.0
1-24Temple (61.9)AmerH0-092%15.4
1-27Memphis (119.3)AmerA0-088%13.2
1-31Houston (41.4)AmerH0-082%10.3
2-3Connecticut (102.7)AmerA0-086%12.0
2-6UCF (67.3)AmerH0-091%14.8
2-11SMU (41.4)AmerA0-057%2.1
2-15Houston (41.4)AmerA0-064%3.9
2-18Wichita St. (17.9)AmerH0-068%5.2
2-22Connecticut (102.7)AmerH0-095%18.4
2-25Tulsa (129.7)AmerH0-095%18.1
3-1Tulane (107.4)AmerA0-087%12.8
3-4Wichita St. (17.9)AmerA0-046%-1.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cincinnati's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Cincinnati's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Cincinnati.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
CincinnatiAmer26.3026.2090.1286.4821.1119.11
Wichita St.Amer0.273.9778.9579.810.162.37
ConnecticutAmer0.273.9552.6350.000.010.00
UCFAmer2.973.9472.2264.901.321.17
SMUAmer2.903.9273.6874.041.371.88
TempleAmer2.833.9255.5655.130.310.40
HoustonAmer0.203.8978.9576.280.122.05
MemphisAmer2.773.8768.4262.121.020.94
East CarolinaAmer2.962.4144.4433.65-0.33-0.79
South FloridaAmer2.912.3636.8427.01-0.76-1.08
TulaneAmer0.272.3663.1659.460.070.45
TulsaAmer0.272.3655.0054.950.030.23
Coppin St.MEAC2.841.7510.0018.54-2.27-1.10
Savannah St.MEAC2.771.7229.4135.73-1.14-0.49
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC2.771.7231.5837.66-1.02-0.42
Alabama St.SWAC2.841.7217.6525.13-1.84-0.85
Cleveland St.Horz2.761.6721.0524.16-1.60-0.86
Mississippi St.SEC2.771.6776.4760.971.470.37
FloridaSEC2.701.6472.2270.601.200.68
BuffaloMAC2.631.6176.4777.491.390.89
RichmondA102.631.6133.3335.53-0.88-0.47
UCLAP122.631.6168.4264.180.970.46
Western CarolinaSC2.631.6141.1836.61-0.46-0.43
WyomingMWC2.631.6164.7158.790.770.28
XavierBE2.631.6185.0079.411.840.95
AlabamaSEC0.210.2168.4258.990.080.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.140.1927.7831.67-0.06-0.07
South CarolinaSEC0.140.1961.1151.900.030.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.1821.0539.47-0.04-0.04
SouthernSWAC0.210.1827.7840.97-0.09-0.03
MercerSC0.210.1644.4454.89-0.020.02
AuburnSEC0.140.1689.4777.030.110.09
ArkansasSEC0.140.1668.4264.200.050.05
LSUSEC0.070.1661.1153.160.010.01
OregonP120.200.1665.0063.830.060.04
New OrleansSlnd0.130.1637.5045.22-0.03-0.02
VillanovaBE0.130.1694.7490.310.120.13
Jacksonville St.OVC0.360.1470.0068.220.140.05
South Dakota St.Sum0.220.1372.2272.970.100.06
HamptonMEAC0.140.1320.0041.76-0.08-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.200.1329.4139.62-0.08-0.03
BaylorB120.140.1361.1156.090.030.02
George WashingtonA100.200.1345.0043.49-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.140.1366.6763.200.050.04
GeorgiaSEC0.070.1366.6755.930.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.210.1310.5316.75-0.17-0.09
Grambling St.SWAC0.140.1336.8444.12-0.04-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.1312.5025.47-0.05-0.06
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.1321.0544.26-0.04-0.02
ArizonaP120.070.1380.0078.980.040.08
East Tennessee St.SC0.210.1177.7879.160.120.06
ChattanoogaSC0.220.1122.2228.59-0.12-0.05
SamfordSC0.140.1127.7832.66-0.06-0.04
ClemsonACC0.210.1184.2173.210.140.05
Texas A&MSEC0.220.1168.4263.980.080.03
CaliforniaP120.070.1136.8431.12-0.02-0.04
DrexelCAA0.070.1130.0030.99-0.03-0.04
Saint LouisA100.070.1147.3746.91-0.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.140.1152.9452.230.010.00
Michigan St.B100.140.1185.0083.180.100.07
Arkansas St.SB0.130.1127.7831.12-0.06-0.04
Kent St.MAC0.130.1144.4444.86-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.200.1150.0046.260.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.1150.0052.440.000.01
Oregon St.P120.200.1157.8950.810.030.00
Boise St.MWC0.140.1178.9576.970.080.06
KentuckySEC0.140.1173.6867.950.060.04
MarquetteBE0.060.1168.4260.530.020.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.130.1166.6773.240.040.05
ProvidenceBE0.060.1170.0060.460.030.02
UABCUSA0.210.1161.1164.130.050.03
USCP120.070.1171.4368.300.030.04
VanderbiltSEC0.140.1136.8435.55-0.04-0.03
St. John'sBE0.130.1147.3742.18-0.01-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.130.1068.4254.090.050.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.1038.8943.43-0.02-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.140.100.0010.65-0.14-0.08
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.080.009.15-0.07-0.07
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0818.7536.76-0.04-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.130.0855.5656.710.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0866.6765.620.020.03
William & MaryCAA0.140.0864.7159.980.040.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.220.0883.3381.350.140.05
Central ConnecticutNEC0.200.0852.3848.520.01-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.140.0810.0019.62-0.11-0.05
RutgersB100.200.0857.8947.140.03-0.00
AkronMAC0.140.0847.0644.91-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0845.0041.34-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.130.0821.0525.98-0.08-0.04
Green BayHorz0.140.0825.0027.94-0.07-0.04
La SalleA100.140.0840.0042.72-0.03-0.01
LibertyBSth0.070.0852.9457.320.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.070.0847.0641.45-0.00-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0868.4254.090.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.140.0878.9576.760.080.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0850.0051.650.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0852.9455.040.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.070.0844.4441.15-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.140.0810.5327.31-0.11-0.04
ColoradoP120.130.0860.0053.730.030.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.140.0841.1843.41-0.02-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.087.6920.09-0.06-0.05
MississippiSEC0.140.0852.6345.860.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.060.0847.0648.44-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.140.0855.0050.370.010.00
StetsonASun0.140.0833.3336.92-0.05-0.02
West VirginiaB120.130.0884.2178.170.090.04
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0866.6763.420.020.02
CreightonBE0.130.0875.0070.690.060.03
Little RockSB0.140.0822.2225.26-0.08-0.04
SyracuseACC0.070.0868.4261.270.030.02
Northern IowaMVC0.130.0847.0652.51-0.010.00
UMBCAE0.130.0858.8258.360.020.01
FurmanSC0.000.0666.6768.500.000.02
The CitadelSC0.070.0618.7518.40-0.05-0.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.070.0668.7567.640.030.02
VMISC0.070.0625.0024.17-0.04-0.03
WoffordSC0.000.0668.7563.620.000.02
MassachusettsA100.070.0550.0046.780.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.070.0580.0075.050.040.03
Appalachian St.SB0.140.0533.3337.22-0.05-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.140.0523.5325.63-0.07-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0515.7920.92-0.05-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0543.7554.09-0.010.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0558.8249.760.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.0545.0049.27-0.01-0.00
DavidsonA100.070.0558.8261.440.010.01
DaytonA100.140.0547.3750.95-0.010.00
DelawareCAA0.140.0547.3743.04-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0538.8944.140.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0557.8966.250.000.02
FordhamA100.070.0531.5829.06-0.03-0.02
George MasonA100.000.0545.0041.350.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0542.1145.97-0.01-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0547.3745.870.00-0.00
IUPUIHorz0.070.0527.7829.84-0.03-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0528.5731.270.00-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0545.0047.05-0.01-0.00
NebraskaB100.070.0566.6759.780.020.01
NevadaMWC0.070.0585.7182.070.050.03
New MexicoMWC0.070.0545.0048.56-0.01-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.140.0557.1453.220.020.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0541.1839.13-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0563.1661.050.000.01
OaklandHorz0.070.0561.9065.160.020.02
OklahomaB120.000.0577.7867.900.000.02
PennIvy0.070.0564.7162.780.020.01
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0558.8262.830.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0511.7612.810.00-0.04
St. BonaventureA100.070.0566.6768.700.020.02
ToledoMAC0.140.0566.6767.690.050.02
UMKCWAC0.000.0521.0524.710.00-0.03
UtahP120.070.0561.1158.950.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.070.0545.0045.50-0.01-0.00
VCUA100.070.0560.0059.690.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0568.4269.240.000.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0521.0523.50-0.04-0.03
Arizona St.P120.060.0578.9576.130.040.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0546.6746.98-0.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.070.0573.6869.610.030.02
Georgia TechACC0.130.0552.6343.120.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.140.0525.0028.25-0.07-0.02
North FloridaASun0.140.0531.5835.15-0.05-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.0572.2268.920.000.02
Air ForceMWC0.070.0537.5031.76-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.140.0560.0060.340.030.01
PacificWCC0.140.0545.0044.46-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.140.0526.3231.52-0.07-0.02
AlbanyAE0.070.0570.0068.050.030.02
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0550.0053.160.000.00
BryantNEC0.070.059.5217.08-0.05-0.03
ButlerBE0.060.0566.6763.070.020.01
Cal PolyBW0.070.0523.5328.21-0.03-0.02
ColgatePat0.000.0550.0051.040.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0520.0032.260.00-0.02
DePaulBE0.060.0542.1134.32-0.01-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0526.6729.04-0.03-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.070.0577.7869.360.040.02
Loyola MDPat0.070.0522.2228.67-0.04-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0527.7840.880.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.070.057.1414.82-0.06-0.04
Seton HallBE0.060.0575.0067.890.030.02
SienaMAAC0.070.0530.0031.69-0.03-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.000.0538.8946.680.00-0.00
TCUB120.070.0573.6865.590.030.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.070.0545.0045.02-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.0568.4270.810.020.02
CampbellBSth0.070.0343.7545.34-0.01-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0366.6765.360.020.01
High PointBSth0.070.0340.0047.86-0.01-0.00
MinnesotaB100.070.0363.6457.640.020.00
RadfordBSth0.070.0361.1160.790.020.01
Texas TechB120.070.0378.9571.810.040.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.0350.0055.650.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0322.2227.33-0.04-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0360.0062.030.010.01
VirginiaACC0.070.0394.4485.440.060.02
Ball St.MAC0.070.0361.1158.750.020.00
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0368.4255.060.030.00
BucknellPat0.070.0361.9068.010.020.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0329.4133.22-0.03-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0362.5058.700.000.00
DenverSum0.070.0333.3336.47-0.02-0.01
DrakeMVC0.070.0355.0049.070.01-0.00
DuquesneA100.000.0370.0058.100.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.070.0338.8946.03-0.02-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0366.6765.530.000.01
IowaB100.070.0347.6244.03-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.000.0361.1147.260.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.000.0373.6862.720.000.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0350.0054.850.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0340.0042.570.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0352.6355.290.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0347.3748.170.00-0.00
MichiganB100.070.0375.0070.270.030.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0350.0051.480.000.00
NJITASun0.070.0338.8942.60-0.02-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0344.4450.31-0.010.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0358.8257.140.010.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0330.0032.530.00-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0383.3381.410.000.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0357.1460.400.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.0350.0045.900.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.070.0373.6872.360.030.01
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0341.1838.46-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0380.0078.860.040.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0335.2940.48-0.02-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.070.0330.0039.93-0.03-0.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0373.6865.280.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0341.1839.650.00-0.01
VermontAE0.070.0373.6877.120.030.01
WashingtonP120.070.0370.0061.440.030.01
Washington St.P120.070.0350.0042.180.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.070.0346.6758.78-0.000.00
DukeACC0.070.0389.4785.190.050.02
ElonCAA0.070.0352.6351.090.000.00
FIUCUSA0.070.0335.2935.57-0.02-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0337.5037.68-0.02-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.070.0380.9583.260.040.02
IndianaB100.070.0357.8950.680.010.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0377.7871.650.040.01
MarshallCUSA0.060.0368.4263.640.020.01
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0323.5328.70-0.03-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.060.0342.1144.97-0.01-0.00
NavyPat0.060.0360.0055.160.010.00
New HampshireAE0.070.0329.4138.15-0.03-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.0311.1115.30-0.05-0.02
Penn St.B100.060.0361.9055.770.010.00
RiderMAAC0.060.0365.0065.370.020.01
HawaiiBW0.070.0368.7563.960.020.01
North DakotaBSky0.070.0329.4134.76-0.03-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.070.0333.3332.96-0.02-0.01
Texas St.SB0.070.0357.8950.210.010.00
TroySB0.070.0335.2942.76-0.02-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.070.0356.2557.400.010.00