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Through games of Feb 7, 2016.


Cincinnati

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:47.4
Current RPI:67
Expected SOS:75
Current SOS:97
Current Record:17-7
Expected Record:22-9
Current Conf Record:7-4
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-0
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:74
Expected OOC SOS:145



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-726.68.08%
23-835.724.85%
22-947.133.51%
21-1057.623.38%
20-1168.18.56%
19-1279.01.42%
18-1391.70.19%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cincinnati.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Western Carolina (239.7)SCH97-72W100%0.0
11-15Robert Morris (299.9)NECH106-44W100%0.0
11-18Bowling Green (192.9)MACA50-83W100%0.0
11-22Arkansas Pine Bluff (319.6)SWACH99-50W100%0.0
11-24Southeastern Louisiana (332.7)SlndH64-49W100%0.0
11-27Nebraska (147.7)B10N61-65W100%0.0
11-28George Washington (45.0)A10N56-61W100%0.0
12-2Butler (53.8)BEH76-78L0%0.0
12-6Morgan St. (329.8)MEACH87-66W100%0.0
12-12Xavier (7.9)BEA65-55L0%0.0
12-15Norfolk St. (212.3)MEACH75-59W100%0.0
12-19VCU (37.1)A10A63-69W100%0.0
12-22Iowa St. (17.3)B12H79-81L0%0.0
12-29Temple (85.6)AmerH70-77L0%0.0
1-2Tulsa (67.0)AmerH76-57W100%0.0
1-7SMU (11.9)AmerA59-57L0%0.0
1-10South Florida (244.3)AmerA51-54W100%0.0
1-13Houston (105.0)AmerH70-59W100%0.0
1-16Temple (85.6)AmerA67-65L0%0.0
1-21Memphis (114.1)AmerH76-72W100%0.0
1-24Tulane (241.1)AmerH97-75W100%0.0
1-28Connecticut (37.7)AmerA57-58W100%0.0
2-4South Florida (244.3)AmerH88-57W100%0.0
2-6Memphis (114.1)AmerA63-59L0%0.0
2-9UCF (193.1)AmerA0-082%10.1
2-13East Carolina (185.6)AmerH0-095%17.8
2-18Tulsa (67.0)AmerA0-059%2.5
2-20Connecticut (37.7)AmerH0-060%2.8
2-27East Carolina (185.6)AmerA0-085%11.2
3-3Houston (105.0)AmerA0-063%3.6
3-6SMU (11.9)AmerH0-052%0.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cincinnati's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Cincinnati's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Cincinnati.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
CincinnatiAmer26.3726.2568.2769.469.6410.22
TempleAmer4.574.0260.0056.970.910.56
South FloridaAmer4.674.0021.7421.02-2.64-2.32
SMUAmer2.613.9990.4887.002.122.95
ConnecticutAmer2.543.9777.2776.111.382.07
East CarolinaAmer0.513.9743.4844.20-0.07-0.46
HoustonAmer2.623.9772.7369.941.191.58
MemphisAmer4.533.9761.9061.511.080.91
TulsaAmer2.453.9768.1864.380.891.14
UCFAmer0.582.4852.3846.710.03-0.16
TulaneAmer2.612.4634.7833.42-0.80-0.82
George WashingtonA102.211.7481.8276.901.410.94
ButlerBE2.221.7268.1866.110.810.55
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC2.221.6921.7424.40-1.26-0.87
Norfolk St.MEAC2.081.6742.8651.03-0.300.03
Morgan St.MEAC2.081.6721.0527.73-1.21-0.74
XavierBE2.131.6790.9183.841.741.13
NebraskaB102.181.6756.5253.540.280.12
VCUA102.131.6677.2776.371.160.88
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd2.171.6615.7928.24-1.48-0.72
Iowa St.B122.131.6472.7369.070.970.62
Bowling GreenMAC2.081.6155.0048.720.21-0.04
Robert MorrisNEC2.081.6129.1731.76-0.87-0.59
Western CarolinaSC2.081.6130.0032.53-0.83-0.56
Nicholls St.Slnd0.180.2214.2917.92-0.13-0.14
South CarolinaSEC0.320.2186.3679.150.230.13
VillanovaBE0.130.1986.9686.370.100.14
Seton HallBE0.170.1973.9169.830.080.07
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.220.189.0917.09-0.18-0.12
HamptonMEAC0.150.1757.1459.470.020.03
OhioMAC0.190.1661.9059.430.040.03
DePaulBE0.270.1634.7834.45-0.08-0.05
DavidsonA100.140.1660.0057.960.030.03
GeorgetownBE0.140.1654.1752.340.010.01
MichiganB100.180.1669.5766.220.070.05
SouthernSWAC0.230.1665.0066.790.070.05
Grambling St.SWAC0.130.1515.7920.03-0.09-0.09
Coppin St.MEAC0.140.1415.0022.36-0.10-0.08
Florida A&MMEAC0.200.1421.0523.58-0.11-0.07
Delaware St.MEAC0.190.149.5213.52-0.15-0.10
TCUB120.140.1343.4837.22-0.02-0.03
CreightonBE0.090.1362.5059.780.020.03
Rhode IslandA100.130.1356.5256.610.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.130.1347.8344.37-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.140.1358.3354.160.020.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.090.1125.0033.21-0.05-0.04
Miami OHMAC0.140.1131.8230.48-0.05-0.04
FurmanSC0.090.1152.1753.310.000.01
New OrleansSlnd0.090.1127.7834.50-0.04-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.1121.0527.82-0.03-0.05
Kent St.MAC0.100.1163.6459.440.030.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.1129.1733.15-0.02-0.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.180.1135.0035.98-0.05-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.1150.0053.300.000.01
Indiana St.MVC0.140.1152.1751.960.010.00
BuffaloMAC0.090.1159.0958.880.020.02
MarquetteBE0.140.1162.5056.260.030.01
ProvidenceBE0.140.1175.0070.940.070.05
St. John'sBE0.180.1126.0923.72-0.09-0.06
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.1190.4886.880.040.08
DelawareCAA0.180.1121.7423.32-0.10-0.06
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.140.1150.0051.910.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.050.1178.2676.810.030.06
New HampshireAE0.090.1155.0053.180.010.01
La SalleA100.140.1120.0020.45-0.08-0.06
Saint Joseph'sA100.140.1182.6178.890.090.06
WisconsinB100.140.1160.8755.840.030.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.130.1013.0413.54-0.10-0.08
DuquesneA100.130.1063.6456.430.040.01
George MasonA100.090.1034.7834.15-0.03-0.03
OklahomaB120.180.1086.3682.100.130.07
RichmondA100.090.1054.5554.490.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.090.1034.7837.07-0.03-0.03
TexasB120.090.1069.5762.630.040.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.130.1016.6720.13-0.09-0.06
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0930.4335.11-0.02-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.100.0928.5731.89-0.04-0.03
The CitadelSC0.090.0833.3331.31-0.03-0.03
VMISC0.140.0815.7917.42-0.10-0.06
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.100.0831.8236.14-0.04-0.02
HowardMEAC0.100.0838.1040.73-0.02-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.090.0886.3685.030.070.06
MercerSC0.090.0872.7370.750.040.03
SamfordSC0.090.0839.1341.32-0.02-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.140.0856.5262.780.020.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.100.0831.5831.80-0.04-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.090.0810.0013.13-0.07-0.06
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.100.0845.0049.39-0.01-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0863.6460.940.010.02
IllinoisB100.140.0845.8344.11-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.140.0842.8641.97-0.02-0.01
WagnerNEC0.090.0863.6465.030.030.02
Missouri St.MVC0.090.0839.1337.74-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0822.7327.19-0.00-0.04
Georgia TechACC0.140.0852.1751.590.010.00
MassachusettsA100.050.0840.9139.36-0.01-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.140.0813.6415.80-0.10-0.05
StetsonASun0.000.0823.8127.69-0.00-0.04
ColoradoP120.090.0869.5765.330.040.02
MinnesotaB100.140.0826.0927.82-0.07-0.04
North CarolinaACC0.140.0882.6178.690.090.05
PennIvy0.140.0838.8937.66-0.03-0.02
DaytonA100.090.0886.3682.380.070.05
IUPUISum0.140.0840.0039.79-0.03-0.02
PurdueB100.090.0879.1776.550.050.04
TennesseeSEC0.130.0847.8346.88-0.01-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.100.0847.6252.67-0.000.00
MarylandB100.090.0887.5083.690.070.05
Penn St.B100.050.0850.0046.740.00-0.01
RutgersB100.130.0821.7420.35-0.07-0.05
Saint LouisA100.090.0836.3633.47-0.02-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.130.0831.5831.98-0.05-0.03
Texas TechB120.090.0859.0953.120.020.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.130.0838.8945.66-0.03-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0659.0959.440.010.01
High PointBSth0.100.0655.0057.480.010.01
WoffordSC0.050.0640.9145.38-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0681.8280.030.000.03
Central MichiganMAC0.100.0650.0051.170.000.00
DetroitHorz0.050.0647.6245.85-0.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0617.6529.24-0.03-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0618.7526.45-0.03-0.03
UC IrvineBW0.050.0672.7371.620.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0633.3335.48-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.100.0582.6178.050.060.03
AlabamaSEC0.090.0559.0953.030.020.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.090.0533.3335.09-0.03-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.090.0556.5257.000.010.01
DrakeMVC0.090.0521.7423.66-0.05-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.100.0569.5764.890.040.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.100.0545.4547.57-0.01-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.100.0570.5975.550.040.03
Texas A&MSEC0.100.0578.2678.050.060.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.090.0530.4332.35-0.04-0.02
BrownIvy0.050.0531.5831.05-0.02-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0540.9143.53-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0582.6181.140.030.03
IonaMAAC0.050.0560.8760.730.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0542.8646.34-0.01-0.00
LSUSEC0.050.0565.2260.270.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0545.4549.70-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0539.1341.12-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0561.9056.420.010.01
StanfordP120.050.0550.0046.610.00-0.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0514.2915.46-0.03-0.04
UtahP120.090.0569.5767.480.040.02
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0572.7376.360.020.03
WyomingMWC0.050.0543.4842.50-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.050.0573.6874.650.020.03
Miami FLACC0.090.0581.8276.740.060.03
MissouriSEC0.090.0534.7830.36-0.03-0.02
AlbanyAE0.080.0575.0075.850.040.03
BaylorB120.050.0572.7366.500.020.02
Boston UniversityPat0.080.0554.1755.570.010.01
BryantNEC0.080.0525.0026.37-0.04-0.02
CaliforniaP120.000.0565.2262.880.000.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0534.7840.92-0.00-0.01
FordhamA100.090.0555.0052.290.010.00
IndianaB100.040.0579.1774.020.030.02
IowaB100.090.0582.6180.580.060.03
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0550.0049.860.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.0570.8369.500.000.02
KansasB120.050.0581.8277.570.030.03
Kansas St.B120.050.0560.8758.470.010.01
KentuckySEC0.080.0573.9171.550.040.02
LibertyBSth0.090.0534.7836.50-0.03-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.040.0547.8348.91-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.090.0571.4368.710.040.02
MaineAE0.050.0534.7834.00-0.01-0.02
MississippiSEC0.090.0565.2259.020.030.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0540.0045.51-0.02-0.00
NJITASun0.080.0554.1755.250.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0550.0049.090.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.040.0566.6763.420.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0572.7372.030.000.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0571.4368.970.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.040.0537.5043.37-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.040.0550.0049.440.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.050.0566.6762.560.020.01
TroySB0.080.0523.8126.67-0.04-0.02
UABCUSA0.080.0582.6179.420.050.03
UMass LowellAE0.050.0531.8232.67-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0576.1973.400.000.02
USC UpstateASun0.000.0522.7323.25-0.00-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.090.0566.6770.540.030.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0582.6179.550.030.03
ArmyPat0.090.0552.1753.380.000.00
Michigan St.B100.090.0583.3383.020.060.03
Virginia TechACC0.090.0554.1749.270.01-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.040.0530.0035.77-0.02-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.040.0536.8438.39-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.040.0545.4554.11-0.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0366.6767.690.020.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0328.5728.54-0.02-0.01
CampbellBSth0.050.0328.5729.65-0.02-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0352.3854.010.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0350.0052.350.000.00
PittsburghACC0.050.0376.1968.220.030.01
RiderMAAC0.050.0340.0042.11-0.01-0.00
TowsonCAA0.050.0365.2259.750.020.01
UC RiversideBW0.050.0345.8341.65-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0365.2266.160.020.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0363.6459.240.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0321.7422.74-0.03-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0336.8441.44-0.01-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0375.0076.240.020.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0347.6252.07-0.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0352.6350.220.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.035.007.23-0.00-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0356.2556.100.010.00
LamarSlnd0.050.0331.5831.96-0.02-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.050.0347.3749.97-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0363.1658.790.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.050.0372.2274.710.020.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0375.0071.500.030.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0359.0960.070.010.01
UMBCAE0.050.0324.0026.41-0.03-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.050.0352.1751.940.000.00
AuburnSEC0.050.0340.9136.61-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0317.3920.66-0.03-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0315.0015.35-0.03-0.02
USCP120.050.0378.2673.060.030.01
Wake ForestACC0.050.0343.4840.61-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0345.4546.30-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.040.0345.4538.47-0.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.050.0330.4331.89-0.02-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.040.0326.0929.20-0.02-0.01
BucknellPat0.040.0354.5558.140.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.050.034.357.73-0.04-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.040.0366.6765.210.010.01
DukeACC0.050.0373.9170.040.020.01
GeorgiaSEC0.040.0361.9056.690.010.00
LafayettePat0.050.0322.7324.04-0.02-0.01
LehighPat0.040.0333.3337.25-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0371.4369.420.020.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.040.0340.9140.65-0.01-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.040.0365.2268.610.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0363.6462.140.010.01
North FloridaASun0.050.0365.2267.140.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0354.1755.080.000.00
OaklandHorz0.040.0368.0067.970.010.01
RadfordBSth0.050.0350.0051.270.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0338.1041.93-0.01-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.040.0368.1866.670.020.01
HawaiiBW0.040.0384.2181.670.030.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.040.0330.4331.18-0.02-0.01
SeattleWAC0.040.0347.6244.99-0.00-0.00