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Through games of Nov 22, 2014.


Cincinnati

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:54.5
Current RPI:81
Expected SOS:41
Current SOS:196
Current Record:2-0
Expected Record:19-11
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-1
Current OOC Record:2-0
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:42
Expected OOC SOS:12



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-35.00.04%
26-45.40.18%
25-59.10.67%
24-612.81.97%
23-717.64.33%
22-823.68.25%
21-931.613.31%
20-1040.916.22%
19-1152.116.62%
18-1265.014.81%
17-1380.511.02%
16-1495.66.87%
15-15112.33.38%
14-16127.81.67%
13-17149.20.55%
12-18167.50.08%
11-19199.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cincinnati.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14St. Francis PA (249.0)NECH52-37W100%0.0
11-19Morehead St. (136.3)OVCH69-61W100%0.0
11-23Eastern Illinois (291.2)OVCH0-094%19.0
11-25North Carolina Central (153.1)MEACH0-077%9.0
11-28Middle Tennessee (181.9)CUSAN0-077%8.8
12-2Stony Brook (109.4)AEH0-076%8.4
12-13Nebraska (84.0)B10A0-038%-3.7
12-17San Diego St. (24.3)MWCH0-044%-1.7
12-20VCU (21.9)A10H0-047%-0.9
12-23Wagner (232.8)NECH0-092%16.9
12-30North Carolina St. (57.0)ACCA0-033%-5.4
1-3SMU (29.6)AmerH0-050%-0.0
1-6East Carolina (228.1)AmerH0-089%14.7
1-10Connecticut (14.8)AmerA0-021%-9.5
1-15Memphis (58.2)AmerA0-034%-4.8
1-17Temple (123.1)AmerH0-075%8.2
1-21Houston (116.2)AmerH0-071%6.8
1-25UCF (198.7)AmerA0-066%5.0
1-29Connecticut (14.8)AmerH0-042%-2.3
2-1East Carolina (228.1)AmerA0-073%7.5
2-5SMU (29.6)AmerA0-027%-7.2
2-7South Florida (166.2)AmerH0-083%11.4
2-10Temple (123.1)AmerA0-054%1.1
2-14Tulane (255.2)AmerH0-091%15.7
2-18Xavier (14.6)BEH0-041%-2.8
2-21Houston (116.2)AmerA0-049%-0.4
2-25UCF (198.7)AmerH0-085%12.2
2-28Tulane (255.2)AmerA0-076%8.6
3-4Tulsa (109.1)AmerA0-050%0.0
3-8Memphis (58.2)AmerH0-058%2.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cincinnati's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Cincinnati's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Cincinnati.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
CincinnatiAmer32.2926.34100.0060.3832.295.47
MemphisAmer0.004.180.0067.16-0.001.43
UCFAmer0.004.17100.0048.440.00-0.13
TempleAmer0.004.1550.0054.310.000.36
HoustonAmer0.004.15100.0066.930.001.40
ConnecticutAmer0.004.14100.0076.790.002.22
SMUAmer0.004.1450.0069.440.001.61
TulaneAmer0.004.1450.0036.400.00-1.13
East CarolinaAmer0.004.130.0034.73-0.00-1.26
South FloridaAmer0.002.62100.0047.040.00-0.16
TulsaAmer0.002.5966.6753.160.000.16
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.001.730.0034.35-0.00-0.54
St. Francis PANEC25.001.7350.0045.290.00-0.16
WagnerNEC0.001.730.0046.50-0.00-0.12
Morehead St.OVC25.001.7033.3361.27-8.330.38
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.001.700.0074.07-0.000.82
North Carolina St.ACC0.001.69100.0058.920.000.30
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.001.6750.0046.400.00-0.12
NebraskaB100.001.6766.6751.950.000.07
San Diego St.MWC0.001.67100.0081.550.001.05
Stony BrookAE0.001.6733.3366.20-0.000.54
VCUA100.001.67100.0074.280.000.81
XavierBE0.001.67100.0077.710.000.92
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.240.0035.36-0.00-0.07
Murray St.OVC0.000.2150.0071.840.000.09
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.200.0043.84-0.00-0.02
CreightonBE0.000.18100.0055.850.000.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.180.0034.98-0.00-0.05
BryantNEC0.000.1850.0054.900.000.02
Louisiana TechCUSA3.120.1775.0071.101.560.07
North CarolinaACC0.000.15100.0073.290.000.07
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.150.0018.48-0.00-0.09
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.150.0031.61-0.00-0.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1550.0037.760.00-0.04
BelmontOVC0.000.1566.6773.760.000.07
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1533.3336.99-0.00-0.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.140.0034.07-0.00-0.05
ColumbiaIvy0.000.1450.0062.620.000.04
Florida St.ACC0.000.1433.3346.79-0.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.1475.0063.040.000.04
UNLVMWC3.120.1475.0053.211.560.01
AmericanPat4.170.1450.0054.620.000.01
VillanovaBE0.000.14100.0065.270.000.04
DukeACC0.000.14100.0086.130.000.10
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.130.0018.27-0.00-0.08
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.130.0037.13-0.00-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.1250.0041.720.00-0.02
MarylandB100.000.12100.0064.500.000.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1250.0033.700.00-0.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.1250.0038.370.00-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.1233.3336.55-0.00-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1225.0041.91-0.00-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.1250.0037.890.00-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.120.0056.24-0.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.120.0028.50-0.00-0.05
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1225.0035.65-0.00-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.000.12100.0051.050.000.00
WyomingMWC0.000.12100.0070.850.000.05
WashingtonP120.000.12100.0057.540.000.02
DavidsonA100.000.1250.0053.040.000.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.11100.0087.190.000.09
St. John'sBE0.000.11100.0052.540.000.01
UABCUSA0.000.110.0043.18-0.00-0.02
HofstraCAA0.000.1166.6762.810.000.03
Wake ForestACC0.000.1150.0041.630.00-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.090.0031.23-0.00-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.090.0033.98-0.00-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0933.3341.92-0.00-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC4.170.0920.0027.80-2.50-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.090.0033.68-0.00-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.090.0040.40-0.00-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.090.0032.69-0.00-0.03
Green BayHorz0.000.090.0067.49-0.000.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0950.0052.290.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.09100.0064.090.000.03
DetroitHorz0.000.0933.3354.50-0.000.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.090.0046.56-0.00-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.090.0028.76-0.00-0.04
AlbanyAE0.000.0933.3362.56-0.000.02
AuburnSEC0.000.0966.6740.400.00-0.02
IndianaB100.000.09100.0062.040.000.02
MaineAE0.000.090.0018.23-0.00-0.06
MichiganB100.000.09100.0064.370.000.03
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0966.6758.230.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0933.3349.42-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.000.09100.0081.740.000.06
VermontAE0.000.0933.3358.93-0.000.02
Wichita St.MVC0.000.09100.0085.100.000.06
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0933.3344.56-0.00-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.09100.0052.590.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.09100.0069.670.000.03
RiceCUSA0.000.0933.3327.11-0.00-0.04
SouthernSWAC0.000.090.0038.72-0.00-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.090.0067.09-0.000.03
DaytonA100.000.0966.6769.640.000.03
Seton HallBE0.000.09100.0056.980.000.01
PennIvy0.000.080.0025.60-0.00-0.04
RichmondA100.000.0866.6767.450.000.03
La SalleA100.000.08100.0053.840.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0850.0037.110.00-0.02
VirginiaACC0.000.08100.0075.720.000.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.070.0024.17-0.00-0.03
UC DavisBW0.000.06100.0042.650.00-0.01
IUPUISum0.000.0650.0031.810.00-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.060.0036.36-0.00-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0650.0051.860.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.0666.6746.540.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0633.3345.63-0.00-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.060.0032.70-0.00-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0666.6748.790.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0633.3346.93-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.000.0650.0045.890.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.000.06100.0062.400.000.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.060.0033.08-0.00-0.02
IllinoisB100.000.06100.0067.100.000.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.06100.0052.260.000.00
IowaB100.000.0650.0065.570.000.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0666.6761.350.000.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0633.3346.76-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0675.0059.530.000.01
RutgersB100.000.0650.0037.560.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.060.0032.07-0.00-0.02
WisconsinB100.000.06100.0084.890.000.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.060.0019.92-0.00-0.04
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0633.3353.79-0.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0633.3340.99-0.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.06100.0071.340.000.02
San DiegoWCC0.000.0666.6748.330.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.000.06100.0052.610.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.06100.0056.240.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.06100.0073.660.000.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0625.0033.97-0.00-0.02
BaylorB120.000.06100.0069.300.000.02
BinghamtonAE0.000.060.0034.71-0.00-0.02
BradleyMVC0.000.060.0027.82-0.00-0.03
ButlerBE0.000.06100.0061.850.000.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0625.0056.39-0.000.01
DePaulBE0.000.06100.0037.850.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0666.6768.230.000.02
FIUCUSA0.000.06100.0043.160.00-0.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0666.6767.200.000.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.06100.0062.070.000.01
HartfordAE0.000.0675.0042.500.00-0.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0650.0067.960.000.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.060.0025.73-0.00-0.03
LamarSlnd0.000.060.0034.03-0.00-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.060.0038.59-0.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0633.3340.91-0.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0666.6751.200.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.06100.0045.350.00-0.01
New HampshireAE0.000.060.0041.97-0.00-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0633.3354.70-0.000.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.060.0039.15-0.00-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0650.0053.430.000.00
StanfordP120.000.0675.0071.090.000.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.06100.0030.790.00-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0037.22-0.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.060.0055.87-0.000.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0650.0034.510.00-0.02
UMBCAE0.000.060.0036.19-0.00-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0633.3332.78-0.00-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0633.3341.77-0.00-0.01
YaleIvy0.000.0666.6762.540.000.01
PurdueB100.000.06100.0060.550.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.06100.0058.780.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.06100.0080.090.000.03
George MasonA100.000.0625.0019.94-0.00-0.03
George WashingtonA100.000.0666.6776.510.000.03
Saint LouisA100.000.06100.0065.140.000.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.050.0025.03-0.00-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.000.0550.0042.680.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0550.0051.120.000.00
DelawareCAA0.000.050.0029.55-0.00-0.02
KansasB120.000.0550.0061.790.000.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0575.0053.860.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0325.0051.56-0.000.00
HowardMEAC0.000.030.0035.51-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0333.3345.85-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0366.6752.030.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.03100.0045.990.00-0.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0350.0053.000.000.00
BYUWCC0.000.03100.0070.030.000.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.030.0031.63-0.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0350.0044.170.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0375.0054.790.000.00
LafayettePat0.000.0375.0064.270.000.01
LehighPat0.000.030.0036.87-0.00-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.030.0047.90-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0366.6771.600.000.01
NavyPat0.000.030.0032.62-0.00-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0366.6746.620.00-0.00
NJITind0.000.0325.0025.21-0.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.03100.0042.120.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.000.0350.0058.120.000.00
Penn St.B100.000.0375.0047.170.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.000.0366.6751.290.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.000.030.0017.53-0.00-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.000.030.0028.19-0.00-0.01
UtahP120.000.0366.6769.700.000.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0375.0057.480.000.00
AkronMAC0.000.0366.6763.730.000.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0366.6756.650.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.03100.0070.030.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.030.0046.61-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.03100.0072.860.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0366.6758.190.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.000.0350.0031.980.00-0.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0366.6749.590.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.03100.0045.790.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.000.030.0032.48-0.00-0.01
PresbyterianBSth3.120.030.0024.77-3.12-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0325.0040.91-0.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.030.0039.36-0.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.03100.0069.180.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0350.0037.430.00-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.03100.0061.500.000.01
FordhamA100.000.030.0035.11-0.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0350.0052.920.000.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0375.0060.410.000.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.03100.0072.420.000.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0366.6752.550.000.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0333.3364.19-0.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0350.0041.480.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0350.0054.970.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.03100.0053.080.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0078.630.000.02
Miami FLACC0.000.03100.0073.530.000.01
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0074.620.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0366.6750.790.000.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0375.0068.160.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0366.6733.180.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.000.03100.0067.570.000.01
WoffordSC0.000.0375.0075.140.000.01