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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Cincinnati

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:48.0
Current RPI:48
Expected SOS:69
Current SOS:69
Current Record:22-10
Expected Record:22-10
Current Conf Record:12-7
Expected Conf Record:12-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-0
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:75
Expected OOC SOS:148



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-1048.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cincinnati.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Western Carolina (166.0)SCH97-72W100%0.0
11-15Robert Morris (291.0)NECH106-44W100%0.0
11-18Bowling Green (200.0)MACA50-83W100%0.0
11-22Arkansas Pine Bluff (311.0)SWACH99-50W100%0.0
11-24Southeastern Louisiana (331.0)SlndH64-49W100%0.0
11-27Nebraska (165.0)B10N61-65W100%0.0
11-28George Washington (68.0)A10N56-61W100%0.0
12-2Butler (57.0)BEH76-78L0%0.0
12-6Morgan St. (327.0)MEACH87-66W100%0.0
12-12Xavier (7.0)BEA65-55L0%0.0
12-15Norfolk St. (225.0)MEACH75-59W100%0.0
12-19VCU (37.0)A10A63-69W100%0.0
12-22Iowa St. (23.0)B12H79-81L0%0.0
12-29Temple (60.0)AmerH70-77L0%0.0
1-2Tulsa (58.0)AmerH76-57W100%0.0
1-7SMU (13.0)AmerA59-57L0%0.0
1-10South Florida (230.0)AmerA51-54W100%0.0
1-13Houston (87.0)AmerH70-59W100%0.0
1-16Temple (60.0)AmerA67-65L0%0.0
1-21Memphis (139.0)AmerH76-72W100%0.0
1-24Tulane (227.0)AmerH97-75W100%0.0
1-28Connecticut (32.0)AmerA57-58W100%0.0
2-4South Florida (230.0)AmerH88-57W100%0.0
2-6Memphis (139.0)AmerA63-59L0%0.0
2-9UCF (219.0)AmerA51-69W100%0.0
2-13East Carolina (217.0)AmerH75-60W100%0.0
2-18Tulsa (58.0)AmerA70-68L0%0.0
2-20Connecticut (32.0)AmerH65-60W100%0.0
2-27East Carolina (217.0)AmerA56-65W100%0.0
3-3Houston (87.0)AmerA69-56L0%0.0
3-6SMU (13.0)AmerH61-54W100%0.0
3-11Connecticut (32.0)AmerN97-104L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cincinnati's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Cincinnati's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Cincinnati.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
CincinnatiAmer26.2626.2668.1268.129.529.52
ConnecticutAmer5.475.4774.1974.192.652.65
TempleAmer4.024.0263.3363.331.071.07
MemphisAmer4.004.0056.2556.250.500.50
South FloridaAmer3.963.9625.8125.81-1.91-1.91
TulsaAmer3.903.9065.5265.521.211.21
East CarolinaAmer3.883.8840.0040.00-0.78-0.78
HoustonAmer3.883.8872.4172.411.741.74
SMUAmer3.873.8785.7185.712.762.76
TulaneAmer2.512.5136.3636.36-0.69-0.69
UCFAmer2.432.4341.3841.38-0.42-0.42
George WashingtonA101.681.6871.8871.880.740.74
ButlerBE1.661.6666.6766.670.550.55
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC1.641.6425.0025.00-0.82-0.82
Norfolk St.MEAC1.611.6150.0050.000.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC1.611.6127.5927.59-0.72-0.72
XavierBE1.611.6183.8783.871.091.09
NebraskaB101.611.6148.4848.48-0.05-0.05
VCUA101.611.6172.7372.730.730.73
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd1.611.6133.3333.33-0.54-0.54
Iowa St.B121.591.5964.5264.520.460.46
Bowling GreenMAC1.561.5645.1645.16-0.15-0.15
Robert MorrisNEC1.561.5632.2632.26-0.55-0.55
Western CarolinaSC1.561.5644.8344.83-0.16-0.16
Nicholls St.Slnd0.200.2025.8125.81-0.10-0.10
South CarolinaSEC0.190.1974.1974.190.090.09
Seton HallBE0.190.1975.7675.760.100.10
HamptonMEAC0.180.1866.6766.670.060.06
VillanovaBE0.170.1785.2985.290.120.12
MichiganB100.170.1763.6463.640.050.05
DavidsonA100.170.1761.2961.290.040.04
GeorgetownBE0.170.1745.4545.45-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.170.1722.5822.58-0.09-0.09
DePaulBE0.150.1529.0329.03-0.06-0.06
OhioMAC0.150.1564.5264.520.040.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.140.1414.2914.29-0.10-0.10
Saint Joseph'sA100.140.1479.4179.410.080.08
SouthernSWAC0.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
Ohio St.B100.140.1460.6160.610.030.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.130.1324.1424.14-0.07-0.07
Florida A&MMEAC0.130.1322.2222.22-0.07-0.07
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.130.1334.4834.48-0.04-0.04
TCUB120.130.1336.3636.36-0.03-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.130.1358.0658.060.020.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
MarquetteBE0.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.120.1216.6716.67-0.08-0.08
New OrleansSlnd0.120.1225.9325.93-0.06-0.06
Oklahoma St.B120.120.1237.5037.50-0.03-0.03
CreightonBE0.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
FurmanSC0.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.120.1278.1278.120.070.07
New HampshireAE0.120.1258.6258.620.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
OklahomaB120.120.1278.1278.120.070.07
Central ConnecticutNEC0.120.1213.7913.79-0.09-0.09
Sacred HeartNEC0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
WisconsinB100.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
MarylandB100.110.1175.0075.000.060.06
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
ChattanoogaSC0.100.1084.3884.380.070.07
Central ArkansasSlnd0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Indiana St.MVC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Miami OHMAC0.100.1037.5037.50-0.02-0.02
WagnerNEC0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
Arkansas Little RockSB0.100.1087.1087.100.070.07
St. John'sBE0.100.1022.5822.58-0.05-0.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.100.1057.5857.580.010.01
DelawareCAA0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
MassachusettsA100.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.100.1026.6726.67-0.04-0.04
DuquesneA100.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.090.0922.8622.86-0.05-0.05
Alabama A&MSWAC0.090.0935.7135.71-0.03-0.03
George MasonA100.090.0934.3834.38-0.03-0.03
RichmondA100.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Saint LouisA100.090.0934.3834.38-0.03-0.03
RutgersB100.090.0919.3519.35-0.06-0.06
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
The CitadelSC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
VMISC0.080.0822.2222.22-0.04-0.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
HowardMEAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0810.7110.71-0.06-0.06
MercerSC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
SamfordSC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
StetsonASun0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0762.8662.860.020.02
IllinoisB100.070.0744.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
PennIvy0.070.0737.0437.04-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Texas TechB120.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.070.0744.1244.12-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.070.0725.8125.81-0.03-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.070.0782.3582.350.050.05
Georgia TechACC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
IUPUISum0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
DaytonA100.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.070.0711.1111.11-0.05-0.05
Penn St.B100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
MaineAE0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0725.9325.93-0.03-0.03
SyracuseACC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.070.0735.7135.71-0.02-0.02
BrownIvy0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
High PointBSth0.050.0564.2964.290.010.01
StanfordP120.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
UC IrvineBW0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
DetroitHorz0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0579.3179.310.030.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
LSUSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0526.9226.92-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0520.8320.83-0.03-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0518.5218.52-0.03-0.03
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
WyomingMWC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
AlabamaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
BryantNEC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
CaliforniaP120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
KansasB120.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
Kansas St.B120.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
USC UpstateASun0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
UtahP120.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0582.1482.140.030.03
MissouriSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
IowaB100.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
NJITASun0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
TroySB0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
FordhamA100.050.0555.1755.170.000.00
Michigan St.B100.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
St. BonaventureA100.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
IndianaB100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
LibertyBSth0.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
MississippiSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0372.4172.410.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
PittsburghACC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0339.3939.39-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0356.0056.000.000.00
LamarSlnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0377.7877.780.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
BucknellPat0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.020.023.453.45-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0265.5265.520.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
LehighPat0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
OaklandHorz0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.020.0260.7160.710.010.01
ToledoMAC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
UMBCAE0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
USCP120.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
HawaiiBW0.020.0283.3383.330.020.02
LafayettePat0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
AmericanPat0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
RadfordBSth0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00