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Through games of Jan 20, 2017.


Houston

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:57.5
Current RPI:70
Expected SOS:83
Current SOS:81
Current Record:13-6
Expected Record:20-10
Current Conf Record:4-3
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-0
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:71
Expected OOC SOS:140



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-628.90.56%
23-733.74.42%
22-840.815.48%
21-949.327.53%
20-1060.328.17%
19-1173.916.30%
18-1289.06.24%
17-13105.91.02%
16-14121.90.27%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Houston.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Morgan St. (319.2)MEACH93-52W100%0.0
11-21George Mason (138.8)A10N56-93W100%0.0
11-22South Dakota (174.3)SumN85-58W100%0.0
11-23Vermont (50.1)AEN72-71W100%0.0
11-26Cornell (289.1)IvyH83-53W100%0.0
11-29LSU (151.7)SECA84-65L0%0.0
12-3Prairie View A&M (294.1)SWACH105-61W100%0.0
12-6Arkansas (44.2)SECA84-72L0%0.0
12-10Rhode Island (39.4)A10H82-77W100%0.0
12-17UT Rio Grande Valley (281.6)WACH83-58W100%0.0
12-21Liberty (194.4)BSthH77-54W100%0.0
12-23Harvard (139.0)IvyH56-57L0%0.0
12-28Connecticut (143.7)AmerA46-62W100%0.0
12-31South Florida (285.2)AmerA56-70W100%0.0
1-4Tulsa (113.4)AmerH64-61W100%0.0
1-7Cincinnati (15.0)AmerH58-67L0%0.0
1-11East Carolina (236.6)AmerA58-74W100%0.0
1-14UCF (72.5)AmerA77-70L0%0.0
1-19Memphis (83.2)AmerH67-70L0%0.0
1-21SMU (29.0)AmerA0-030%-5.7
1-24Tulane (277.7)AmerH0-097%21.3
1-28Temple (99.3)AmerH0-080%9.4
2-1UCF (72.5)AmerH0-073%7.0
2-8Tulane (277.7)AmerA0-091%15.1
2-11Tulsa (113.4)AmerA0-069%5.7
2-18SMU (29.0)AmerH0-052%0.5
2-22Connecticut (143.7)AmerH0-080%9.3
2-26Memphis (83.2)AmerA0-053%0.8
3-2Cincinnati (15.0)AmerA0-022%-8.7
3-5East Carolina (236.6)AmerH0-093%16.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Houston's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Houston's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Houston.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
HoustonAmer26.4626.2865.5266.298.218.56
MemphisAmer2.944.1472.2266.771.311.39
CincinnatiAmer2.784.1488.2486.382.123.01
SMUAmer0.374.1380.0079.110.222.41
TulsaAmer2.784.1362.5053.750.690.31
East CarolinaAmer2.864.1150.0044.130.00-0.48
UCFAmer2.864.1076.4767.291.511.42
TulaneAmer0.374.1022.2221.66-0.21-2.32
ConnecticutAmer2.854.1037.5044.12-0.71-0.48
TempleAmer0.442.5550.0054.230.000.22
South FloridaAmer2.842.5537.5030.01-0.71-1.02
HarvardIvy2.701.7554.5559.960.250.35
Rhode IslandA102.701.7568.7569.431.010.68
CornellIvy2.631.7321.4325.44-1.50-0.85
ArkansasSEC2.631.7276.4769.301.390.66
George MasonA102.711.7268.7558.461.020.29
LSUSEC2.631.7250.0036.670.00-0.46
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC2.701.7235.2934.51-0.79-0.53
VermontAE2.741.7078.9580.031.591.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC2.711.6918.7536.55-1.69-0.46
LibertyBSth2.631.6750.0053.280.000.11
Morgan St.MEAC2.631.6740.0046.20-0.53-0.13
South DakotaSum2.631.6757.8956.780.420.23
BrownIvy0.230.2447.0642.91-0.01-0.03
PennIvy0.150.2442.8647.98-0.02-0.01
George WashingtonA100.260.2352.6348.070.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.340.2363.1660.390.090.05
AlbanyAE0.160.1952.6358.980.010.03
DartmouthIvy0.250.1821.4323.06-0.14-0.10
YaleIvy0.070.1860.0065.720.010.06
Texas St.SB0.230.1753.3345.980.02-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.210.1682.3574.990.140.08
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.1628.5733.61-0.03-0.05
PrincetonIvy0.080.1660.0066.110.020.05
NortheasternCAA0.340.1563.1659.530.090.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.230.1412.5019.98-0.17-0.09
North FloridaASun0.300.1423.5331.23-0.16-0.05
VCUA100.230.1473.6870.630.110.06
AuburnSEC0.150.1466.6755.390.050.02
Oklahoma St.B120.150.1452.9450.580.010.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.220.1425.0029.54-0.11-0.06
Mississippi St.SEC0.220.1470.5958.250.090.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.220.1473.6869.690.100.05
MissouriSEC0.150.1429.4125.93-0.06-0.07
Texas SouthernSWAC0.230.1450.0066.300.000.04
ColumbiaIvy0.090.1346.1546.15-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.070.1240.0037.08-0.01-0.03
UMass LowellAE0.230.1240.0040.47-0.05-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.230.1112.5024.37-0.17-0.06
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.1153.3361.620.000.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1117.6529.60-0.00-0.05
Gardner WebbBSth0.080.1141.1849.23-0.01-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.150.1112.5013.05-0.11-0.08
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.1125.0031.85-0.03-0.04
Oral RobertsSum0.140.1122.2229.94-0.08-0.05
Bowling GreenMAC0.220.1135.2935.14-0.07-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.150.1160.0072.810.030.05
Penn St.B100.230.1157.8949.820.04-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.150.1177.7878.460.090.06
New OrleansSlnd0.080.1150.0052.970.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.080.1137.5051.21-0.020.00
La SalleA100.080.1168.7564.060.030.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.150.1147.0646.29-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.150.1131.2545.45-0.05-0.01
OklahomaB120.070.1147.0641.20-0.00-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.210.1165.0055.280.060.01
StetsonASun0.140.1129.4130.28-0.06-0.04
Texas A&MSEC0.150.1152.9451.020.010.00
MississippiSEC0.070.1161.1155.030.020.01
CampbellBSth0.160.0943.7542.60-0.02-0.01
High PointBSth0.160.0937.5042.27-0.04-0.01
FordhamA100.110.0938.8935.26-0.02-0.03
UMKCWAC0.140.0938.8939.92-0.03-0.02
LamarSlnd0.230.0946.6747.34-0.02-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.080.0925.0023.83-0.04-0.05
Loyola MarymountWCC0.160.0947.0644.32-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.170.0957.8952.520.030.00
WagnerNEC0.160.0937.5047.61-0.04-0.00
StanfordP120.110.0955.5648.060.01-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.150.0935.2937.32-0.05-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0912.5033.82-0.05-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0911.1122.97-0.06-0.05
Fort WayneSum0.140.0864.7166.910.040.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.140.0864.7162.600.040.02
HamptonMEAC0.070.0826.6740.16-0.03-0.02
IowaB100.140.0855.0049.300.01-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.160.0875.0074.450.080.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.150.080.0014.44-0.15-0.06
USCP120.090.0880.0071.930.050.04
DavidsonA100.000.0852.9453.560.000.01
DaytonA100.080.0876.4776.940.040.04
Oregon St.P120.150.0816.6713.65-0.10-0.06
RichmondA100.000.0861.1157.870.000.01
Saint LouisA100.150.0827.7824.32-0.07-0.04
Southern MissCUSA0.080.0825.0022.32-0.04-0.05
Wichita St.MVC0.150.0878.9582.980.090.05
AlabamaSEC0.080.0864.7157.700.020.01
New HampshireAE0.070.0856.2558.170.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.150.0840.0051.38-0.030.00
VillanovaBE0.070.0894.7489.270.070.06
ButlerBE0.140.0884.2178.340.100.05
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0853.3356.530.000.01
FloridaSEC0.070.0877.7874.930.040.04
MercerSC0.150.0833.3343.06-0.05-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0844.4442.60-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.110.0612.5028.49-0.08-0.03
Holy CrossPat0.190.0650.0051.660.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0620.0030.55-0.05-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.070.0616.6718.29-0.05-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.0622.2225.60-0.00-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0661.1163.070.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0688.2484.520.000.04
RadfordBSth0.080.0641.1844.82-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.160.0631.5835.67-0.06-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.150.0642.8650.49-0.020.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.080.0661.1169.300.020.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0640.0044.67-0.00-0.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0675.0075.420.000.03
PortlandWCC0.140.0647.0640.46-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.170.0647.0648.13-0.01-0.00
SienaMAAC0.150.0640.0045.18-0.03-0.01
TowsonCAA0.160.0652.6354.610.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.150.0646.6747.54-0.01-0.00
Boston UniversityPat0.080.0650.0053.030.000.00
DenverSum0.070.0657.8955.950.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.080.0652.6348.210.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.070.0638.8943.16-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.130.0633.3340.46-0.04-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0652.6353.100.000.00
Ohio St.B100.080.0663.1658.020.020.01
OregonP120.080.0688.8983.420.060.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0631.5833.41-0.02-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0626.6727.53-0.00-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.080.0635.0036.31-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.130.0642.1143.49-0.02-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.140.0647.0648.10-0.01-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.066.2511.88-0.00-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0618.7527.90-0.00-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0621.4336.55-0.04-0.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0647.3744.51-0.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0617.6524.51-0.00-0.03
DuquesneA100.000.0647.3741.47-0.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0661.1147.020.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.070.0630.0028.54-0.03-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0652.6352.920.000.00
Little RockSB0.080.0656.2551.110.010.00
MaineAE0.070.0620.0020.95-0.04-0.03
MaristMAAC0.140.0631.5829.24-0.05-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.070.0637.5034.55-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0640.0038.59-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0684.2180.600.000.03
Old DominionCUSA0.150.0661.1162.280.030.01
San Diego St.MWC0.080.0658.8264.380.010.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0652.9455.050.000.01
St. BonaventureA100.080.0666.6762.870.030.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0645.0038.54-0.00-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0655.5654.430.000.00
UMBCAE0.070.0662.5058.830.020.01
WoffordSC0.140.0631.2540.50-0.05-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0564.7158.520.000.01
KentuckySEC0.070.0588.8987.510.060.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.150.0540.0050.05-0.030.00
TennesseeSEC0.070.0547.0648.42-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.070.0541.1837.57-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0562.5063.120.000.01
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0543.7543.70-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0541.1846.85-0.01-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.0523.0830.70-0.04-0.02
Iowa St.B120.070.0564.7161.830.020.01
LipscombASun0.070.0544.4450.48-0.010.00
MarshallCUSA0.070.0555.5660.070.010.01
MichiganB100.000.0563.1658.150.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0526.3228.81-0.03-0.02
PittsburghACC0.000.0563.1651.610.000.00
SamfordSC0.070.0564.7160.050.020.01
TCUB120.000.0576.4763.630.000.01
UABCUSA0.070.0561.1164.320.020.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0513.3327.07-0.00-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0588.8986.040.050.04
VirginiaACC0.070.0582.3576.300.040.03
XavierBE0.000.0572.2267.680.000.02
Boston CollegeACC0.110.0347.3734.50-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.110.0321.0533.56-0.06-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.080.0337.5044.22-0.02-0.00
ColgatePat0.090.0321.0527.27-0.05-0.01
FurmanSC0.080.0352.9458.360.000.00
IndianaB100.080.0368.4264.610.030.01
LafayettePat0.090.0329.4123.71-0.04-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0318.7535.73-0.05-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.070.0357.1457.210.010.00
RutgersB100.080.0355.5642.900.01-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0314.2929.27-0.00-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0315.7920.51-0.05-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0357.8957.540.010.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0370.5964.080.030.01
WyomingMWC0.090.0364.7157.710.030.00
DelawareCAA0.080.0333.3330.90-0.03-0.01
DrakeMVC0.070.0329.4127.72-0.03-0.01
ElonCAA0.080.0350.0051.340.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0320.0026.44-0.05-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.070.03100.0097.320.070.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0327.7832.97-0.03-0.01
MontanaBSky0.070.0350.0058.290.000.00
NebraskaB100.070.0347.0641.67-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0360.0053.460.020.00
RiderMAAC0.080.0357.8952.960.010.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.070.0320.0024.21-0.04-0.01
BelmontOVC0.080.0375.0074.470.040.01
BradleyMVC0.080.0336.8433.55-0.02-0.01
DukeACC0.080.0377.7873.860.040.01
Fresno St.MWC0.080.0358.8254.690.010.00
James MadisonCAA0.080.0326.3229.57-0.04-0.01
Kansas St.B120.080.0377.7862.260.040.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.080.0364.7169.700.020.01
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0335.2939.22-0.02-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.070.0342.1141.75-0.01-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0388.8987.310.060.02
Texas TechB120.000.0377.7865.330.000.01
UtahP120.080.0368.7567.640.030.01
UTSACUSA0.080.0343.7538.29-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.080.0377.7877.270.040.02
Wake ForestACC0.080.0361.1155.580.020.00
WisconsinB100.080.0383.3381.320.050.02
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0322.2227.15-0.04-0.01
DePaulBE0.000.0342.1130.39-0.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0389.4779.540.000.02
MinnesotaB100.070.0378.9570.150.040.01
NJITASun0.000.0338.8942.49-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0362.5063.260.020.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0352.6347.720.00-0.00
TexasB120.070.0338.8935.38-0.02-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0368.7570.270.030.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0383.3380.700.000.02