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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Houston

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:239.0
Current RPI:239
Expected SOS:163
Current SOS:163
Current Record:13-19
Expected Record:13-19
Current Conf Record:5-15
Expected Conf Record:5-15
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-7
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:225
Expected OOC SOS:327



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-19239.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Houston.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Murray St. (63.0)OVCA74-77W100%0.0
11-22Morgan St. (337.0)MEACH72-57W100%0.0
11-25Harvard (52.0)IvyA84-63L0%0.0
12-4Texas Pan American (334.0)WACH72-58W100%0.0
12-6Abilene Christian (324.0)SlndH71-59W100%0.0
12-16Houston Baptist (285.0)SlndH83-76W100%0.0
12-17Arkansas Pine Bluff (302.0)SWACH56-61L0%0.0
12-20South Carolina St. (320.0)MEACH63-71L0%0.0
12-22Boise St. (40.0)MWCN73-75L0%0.0
12-23Texas Tech (183.0)B12N69-82W100%0.0
12-28Mississippi Valley St. (345.0)SWACH80-53W100%0.0
12-31Memphis (83.0)AmerA73-54L0%0.0
1-4Tulsa (45.0)AmerA72-54L0%0.0
1-6UCF (257.0)AmerH78-79L0%0.0
1-11Memphis (83.0)AmerH44-62L0%0.0
1-14East Carolina (219.0)AmerA66-61L0%0.0
1-17Tulane (214.0)AmerH65-68L0%0.0
1-21Cincinnati (37.0)AmerA67-54L0%0.0
1-24SMU (12.0)AmerA80-59L0%0.0
1-28Rice (247.0)CUSAH59-48W100%0.0
2-1Connecticut (77.0)AmerH70-68W100%0.0
2-5Tulsa (45.0)AmerH44-57L0%0.0
2-12SMU (12.0)AmerH69-75L0%0.0
2-15UCF (257.0)AmerA56-54L0%0.0
2-17South Florida (273.0)AmerA69-67L0%0.0
2-21Cincinnati (37.0)AmerH53-63L0%0.0
2-26Temple (34.0)AmerA66-54L0%0.0
3-1South Florida (273.0)AmerH72-55W100%0.0
3-4Tulane (214.0)AmerA63-68W100%0.0
3-8East Carolina (219.0)AmerH72-54W100%0.0
3-12Tulane (214.0)AmerN60-66W100%0.0
3-13Tulsa (45.0)AmerN59-51L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Houston's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Houston's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Houston.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
HoustonAmer26.4326.4335.4235.42-7.71-7.71
TulsaAmer5.495.4967.8667.861.961.96
TulaneAmer5.465.4648.1548.15-0.20-0.20
East CarolinaAmer4.004.0037.9337.93-0.97-0.97
SMUAmer4.004.0080.0080.002.402.40
MemphisAmer3.983.9853.3353.330.270.27
UCFAmer3.973.9733.3333.33-1.32-1.32
South FloridaAmer3.953.9524.1424.14-2.04-2.04
CincinnatiAmer3.933.9366.6766.671.311.31
ConnecticutAmer2.692.6960.6160.610.570.57
TempleAmer2.572.5768.7568.750.960.96
Abilene ChristianSlnd1.781.7825.9325.93-0.86-0.86
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC1.691.6919.3519.35-1.04-1.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC1.661.6635.4835.48-0.48-0.48
Houston BaptistSlnd1.651.6534.7834.78-0.50-0.50
South Carolina St.MEAC1.641.6426.6726.67-0.77-0.77
Texas TechB121.611.6141.9441.94-0.26-0.26
RiceCUSA1.601.6035.7135.71-0.46-0.46
Boise St.MWC1.591.5973.3373.330.740.74
Morgan St.MEAC1.591.5923.3323.33-0.85-0.85
HarvardIvy1.561.5673.0873.080.720.72
Murray St.OVC1.561.5686.2186.211.131.13
Texas Pan AmericanWAC1.561.5625.9325.93-0.75-0.75
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.270.2725.8125.81-0.13-0.13
Jackson St.SWAC0.230.2334.3834.38-0.07-0.07
LamarSlnd0.220.2242.3142.31-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.200.2043.7543.75-0.02-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.200.2058.3358.330.030.03
SouthernSWAC0.180.1846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.170.1756.6756.670.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.170.1775.8675.860.090.09
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.160.1625.9325.93-0.08-0.08
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.160.1656.6756.670.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.150.1524.1424.14-0.08-0.08
Alabama St.SWAC0.150.1562.9662.960.040.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.150.1572.4172.410.070.07
Texas SouthernSWAC0.150.1564.7164.710.040.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.150.1556.6756.670.020.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.140.1486.6786.670.100.10
North TexasCUSA0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.130.1330.0030.00-0.05-0.05
Georgia SouthernSB0.130.1367.8667.860.050.05
Fresno St.MWC0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
OklahomaB120.120.1268.7568.750.050.05
Oral RobertsSum0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.120.1287.1087.100.090.09
Alabama A&MSWAC0.120.1228.5728.57-0.05-0.05
Alcorn St.SWAC0.120.1216.6716.67-0.08-0.08
TexasB120.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
YaleIvy0.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
UTSACUSA0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.100.1035.7135.71-0.03-0.03
CreightonBE0.100.1042.4242.42-0.02-0.02
WashingtonP120.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
USC UpstateASun0.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.100.1052.9452.940.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.106.906.90-0.09-0.09
HamptonMEAC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
AuburnSEC0.100.1041.1841.18-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
WyomingMWC0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
BaylorB120.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
GonzagaWCC0.100.1093.9493.940.090.09
Grambling St.SWAC0.100.100.000.00-0.10-0.10
UC RiversideBW0.090.0941.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.080.0855.5655.560.010.01
UMKCWAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
PennIvy0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.080.0844.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
UABCUSA0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
XavierBE0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
HawaiiBW0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Southern UtahBSky0.070.0732.1432.14-0.03-0.03
UNLVMWC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.070.0716.1316.13-0.05-0.05
IndianaB100.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Iowa St.B120.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
TCUB120.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
KansasB120.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
West VirginiaB120.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.066.906.90-0.05-0.05
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0640.7440.74-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0630.7730.77-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0626.9226.92-0.03-0.03
BrownIvy0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.060.0617.2417.24-0.04-0.04
DuquesneA100.060.0636.6736.67-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
SeattleWAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.050.0590.6290.620.040.04
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
StetsonASun0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
BelmontOVC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
BryantNEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Oregon St.P120.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
AlabamaSEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Green BayHorz0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
HofstraCAA0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
San Jose St.MWC0.050.050.000.00-0.05-0.05
Seton HallBE0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
BradleyMVC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
NebraskaB100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
VCUA100.050.0574.2974.290.020.02
WagnerNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0527.2727.27-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
DukeACC0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Arizona St.P120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
VermontAE0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
PortlandWCC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
IdahoBSky0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
MarquetteBE0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
NevadaMWC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0390.9190.910.020.02
Penn St.B100.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
RiderMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
AkronMAC0.020.0258.8258.820.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.020.0271.4371.430.010.01
High PointBSth0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Michigan St.B100.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
DelawareCAA0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.020.0294.1294.120.020.02
DaytonA100.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
FloridaSEC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00