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Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


Houston

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:37.7
Current RPI:61
Expected SOS:102
Current SOS:200
Current Record:6-1
Expected Record:23-7
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-0
Current OOC Record:6-1
Expected OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC RPI:46
Expected OOC SOS:224



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
29-115.00.01%
28-212.00.79%
27-315.43.29%
26-419.89.01%
25-524.916.17%
24-631.221.50%
23-739.220.01%
22-848.315.32%
21-959.98.68%
20-1072.53.51%
19-1186.61.21%
18-12102.30.38%
17-13119.00.09%
16-14130.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Houston.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Morgan St. (329.9)MEACH93-52W100%0.0
11-21George Mason (189.3)A10N56-93W100%0.0
11-22South Dakota (217.7)SumN85-58W100%0.0
11-23Vermont (86.8)AEN72-71W100%0.0
11-26Cornell (264.7)IvyH83-53W100%0.0
11-29LSU (93.4)SECA84-65L0%0.0
12-3Prairie View A&M (313.8)SWACH105-61W100%0.0
12-6Arkansas (43.1)SECA0-047%-0.8
12-10Rhode Island (37.3)A10H0-069%6.1
12-17UT Rio Grande Valley (318.0)WACH0-099%30.5
12-21Liberty (211.7)BSthH0-097%22.3
12-23Harvard (205.8)IvyH0-093%17.3
12-28Connecticut (139.2)AmerA0-073%7.3
12-31South Florida (267.6)AmerA0-092%16.8
1-4Tulsa (188.2)AmerH0-093%17.9
1-7Cincinnati (18.5)AmerH0-051%0.3
1-11East Carolina (174.1)AmerA0-080%10.2
1-14UCF (45.0)AmerA0-048%-0.7
1-19Memphis (147.9)AmerH0-086%12.9
1-21SMU (59.0)AmerA0-051%0.3
1-24Tulane (283.2)AmerH0-097%23.1
1-28Temple (54.0)AmerH0-077%8.8
2-1UCF (45.0)AmerH0-068%5.6
2-8Tulane (283.2)AmerA0-092%16.9
2-11Tulsa (188.2)AmerA0-083%11.7
2-18SMU (59.0)AmerH0-071%6.6
2-22Connecticut (139.2)AmerH0-087%13.6
2-26Memphis (147.9)AmerA0-071%6.6
3-2Cincinnati (18.5)AmerA0-031%-6.0
3-5East Carolina (174.1)AmerH0-092%16.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Houston's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Houston's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Houston.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
HoustonAmer28.3826.2988.8978.4522.0714.96
MemphisAmer0.004.1575.0057.840.000.65
CincinnatiAmer0.004.1487.5083.960.002.81
SMUAmer0.004.1466.6768.780.001.55
TulsaAmer0.004.1350.0040.080.00-0.82
East CarolinaAmer0.004.1277.7852.370.000.20
UCFAmer0.004.1185.7178.670.002.36
TulaneAmer0.004.1112.5025.26-0.00-2.03
ConnecticutAmer0.004.1033.3341.06-0.00-0.73
South FloridaAmer0.002.5557.1434.130.00-0.81
TempleAmer0.002.5575.0066.310.000.83
HarvardIvy0.001.7620.0048.43-0.00-0.06
Rhode IslandA100.001.7562.5070.460.000.72
CornellIvy7.141.7333.3331.10-2.38-0.66
ArkansasSEC0.001.7285.7166.640.000.57
George MasonA107.141.7271.4348.513.06-0.05
LSUSEC7.141.7266.6747.422.38-0.09
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.001.7222.2222.00-0.00-0.96
VermontAE7.141.7071.4373.783.060.81
Prairie View A&MSWAC7.141.6916.6732.36-4.76-0.60
LibertyBSth0.001.6733.3349.73-0.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC7.141.6716.6739.68-4.76-0.34
South DakotaSum7.141.6757.1447.661.02-0.08
BrownIvy0.510.2455.5646.970.06-0.01
PennIvy0.000.2433.3356.57-0.000.03
George WashingtonA100.000.2355.5641.690.00-0.04
MassachusettsA100.000.2371.4358.600.000.04
AlbanyAE0.000.1942.8661.11-0.000.04
DartmouthIvy0.000.180.0020.55-0.00-0.11
YaleIvy0.450.1842.8663.41-0.060.05
Texas St.SB0.000.1750.0043.390.00-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.450.16100.0078.850.450.10
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.160.0017.61-0.00-0.11
PrincetonIvy0.000.1625.0063.27-0.000.04
NortheasternCAA0.510.1550.0044.400.00-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.1471.4354.310.000.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.140.0022.58-0.00-0.08
North FloridaASun0.510.1412.5034.79-0.38-0.04
VCUA100.510.1475.0073.060.260.06
AuburnSEC0.000.1485.7157.450.000.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.1425.0031.41-0.00-0.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.1475.0048.030.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1466.6761.550.000.03
MissouriSEC0.000.1457.1442.530.00-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.1450.0066.300.000.04
ColumbiaIvy0.000.1342.8642.62-0.00-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.120.0022.31-0.00-0.06
UMass LowellAE0.000.1222.2238.49-0.00-0.03
SeattleWAC0.000.1216.6739.49-0.00-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.000.1240.0041.93-0.00-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.1114.2932.19-0.00-0.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.1142.8660.54-0.000.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1112.5037.99-0.00-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.1133.3352.11-0.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.1133.3327.06-0.00-0.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.110.0018.64-0.00-0.07
Bowling GreenMAC0.960.1128.5741.52-0.41-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.1157.1471.520.000.05
Penn St.B100.000.1166.6746.420.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.1140.0058.82-0.000.02
La SalleA100.000.1166.6755.540.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1142.8645.30-0.00-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1114.2943.58-0.00-0.01
OklahomaB120.000.1171.4348.350.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.450.1175.0056.590.220.01
StetsonASun0.000.1128.5728.24-0.00-0.05
Texas A&MSEC0.000.1166.6766.180.000.04
MississippiSEC0.000.1175.0048.500.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.510.0942.8639.20-0.07-0.02
High PointBSth0.510.0942.8646.48-0.07-0.01
FordhamA100.000.0950.0041.310.00-0.02
SyracuseACC0.000.0971.4366.700.000.03
UMKCWAC0.450.0962.5052.330.110.00
LamarSlnd0.510.0950.0041.540.00-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0920.0021.80-0.00-0.05
Oregon St.P120.510.0925.0022.93-0.26-0.05
Wichita St.MVC0.510.0975.0086.710.260.06
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0933.3346.38-0.00-0.01
WagnerNEC0.000.0933.3354.47-0.000.01
StanfordP120.000.0966.6758.060.000.01
BinghamtonAE0.510.0950.0043.560.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0925.0055.33-0.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.090.0034.47-0.00-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.090.0025.23-0.00-0.04
MonmouthMAAC0.510.0875.0070.620.260.03
USCP120.000.08100.0076.680.000.05
Fort WayneSum0.000.0871.4370.210.000.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0857.1458.940.000.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.0814.2942.67-0.00-0.01
IowaB100.000.0837.5037.74-0.00-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.080.0020.75-0.00-0.05
DavidsonA100.000.0871.4363.170.000.02
DaytonA100.000.0871.4373.490.000.04
RichmondA100.000.0850.0048.210.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0828.5723.78-0.00-0.04
Southern MissCUSA0.510.0825.0020.78-0.26-0.05
AlabamaSEC0.000.0857.1451.790.000.00
New HampshireAE0.000.0857.1458.840.000.01
VillanovaBE0.000.08100.0084.840.000.06
ButlerBE0.000.08100.0074.440.000.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0850.0056.740.000.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0887.5075.240.000.04
MercerSC0.450.0842.8647.76-0.06-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0850.0046.240.00-0.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0616.6744.34-0.00-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.0637.5047.37-0.00-0.00
TroySB0.000.0642.8636.19-0.00-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0620.0037.65-0.00-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.0620.0022.75-0.00-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0017.13-0.00-0.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0642.8658.58-0.000.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0660.0067.760.000.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0650.0046.410.00-0.00
Little RockSB0.000.0666.6761.330.000.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0675.0070.180.000.02
RadfordBSth0.000.0628.5734.28-0.00-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0675.0061.490.000.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0657.1467.260.000.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0666.6757.300.000.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0650.0071.070.000.03
SienaMAAC0.510.0637.5052.01-0.130.00
PortlandWCC0.000.0650.0054.070.000.00
TowsonCAA0.960.0642.8653.19-0.140.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0633.3346.01-0.00-0.00
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0642.8654.90-0.000.01
DenverSum0.000.0642.8645.01-0.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0655.5647.890.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.000.0637.5051.64-0.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.0650.0062.380.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0642.8655.09-0.000.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0687.5068.610.000.02
OregonP120.000.0675.0072.250.000.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0625.0039.59-0.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.060.0016.68-0.00-0.04
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0625.0034.40-0.00-0.02
HofstraCAA0.890.0662.5043.220.22-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.890.0657.1454.360.130.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0013.46-0.00-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0612.5033.65-0.00-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0034.27-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.060.0023.69-0.00-0.03
DuquesneA100.000.0644.4442.03-0.00-0.01
HartfordAE0.000.0622.2226.33-0.00-0.03
MaineAE0.000.0614.2924.15-0.00-0.03
MaristMAAC0.450.0644.4434.65-0.05-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.0642.8630.92-0.00-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0642.8637.34-0.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.510.0671.4368.050.220.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.0671.4370.390.000.02
Stony BrookAE0.000.0628.5738.15-0.00-0.01
UMBCAE0.000.0680.0054.540.000.01
WoffordSC0.960.060.0034.81-0.96-0.02
Arizona St.P120.000.0662.5040.460.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0657.1436.010.00-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.0687.5081.960.000.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0642.8650.12-0.000.00
St. John'sBE0.000.0637.5037.03-0.00-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0557.1452.030.000.00
KentuckySEC0.000.0587.5082.800.000.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.450.0511.1148.19-0.35-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0540.0041.12-0.00-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0557.1448.500.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.000.0542.8656.04-0.000.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0571.4351.460.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0516.6739.78-0.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0525.0043.41-0.00-0.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0571.4368.070.000.02
LipscombASun0.000.0512.5033.04-0.00-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0571.4354.860.000.01
MichiganB100.000.0575.0066.460.000.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0528.5732.62-0.00-0.02
PittsburghACC0.000.0575.0049.180.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.000.0562.5056.520.000.01
TCUB120.000.05100.0061.680.000.01
UABCUSA0.000.0550.0059.920.000.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.050.0033.85-0.00-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0583.3377.100.000.03
VirginiaACC0.000.0587.5078.510.000.03
XavierBE0.000.0587.5070.890.000.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0357.1429.790.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.0325.0047.82-0.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.510.0312.5029.71-0.38-0.01
LafayettePat0.510.0333.3333.36-0.17-0.01
WyomingMWC0.000.0366.6754.050.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0328.5742.90-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.000.0333.3356.24-0.000.00
IndianaB100.000.0387.5074.490.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.030.0035.95-0.00-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.0340.0043.41-0.00-0.00
RutgersB100.510.0385.7145.370.36-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0027.12-0.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0342.8638.63-0.00-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0314.2926.74-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0375.0054.670.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0371.4356.260.000.00
DelawareCAA0.000.0350.0041.990.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.450.030.0019.67-0.45-0.02
ElonCAA0.000.0371.4359.470.000.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0316.6730.34-0.00-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.03100.0091.920.000.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0325.0030.23-0.00-0.01
MontanaBSky0.450.0325.0048.10-0.22-0.00
NebraskaB100.450.0357.1444.890.06-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0342.8645.56-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.000.0350.0048.810.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.030.0022.01-0.00-0.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0350.0064.350.000.01
BradleyMVC0.450.0342.8627.96-0.06-0.01
DukeACC0.000.0388.8978.400.000.02
Fresno St.MWC0.510.0366.6740.030.17-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.450.0312.5030.68-0.33-0.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0387.5059.310.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0350.0071.020.000.01
Northern IowaMVC0.450.0333.3352.84-0.150.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.450.0328.5736.95-0.19-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.510.03100.0089.330.510.02
Texas TechB120.000.0387.5062.040.000.01
UtahP120.000.0375.0059.790.000.01
UTSACUSA0.510.0325.0029.54-0.26-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0385.7174.990.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0375.0054.490.000.00
WisconsinB100.510.0377.7876.040.280.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0333.3336.74-0.00-0.01
DePaulBE0.000.0366.6735.430.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0387.5065.250.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0387.5068.020.000.01
NJITASun0.000.0350.0049.780.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0058.040.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0357.1449.130.00-0.00
TexasB120.000.0357.1438.680.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0362.5067.390.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0385.7183.660.000.02