Houston

Conference:	CUSA
Expected RPI:	221.0
Current RPI:	221
Expected SOS:	188
Current SOS:	188
Current Record:	14-15
Expected Record:	14-15
Current Conf Record:	7-10
Expected Conf Record:	7-10
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	6-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-3
Current OOC Record:	7-5
Expected OOC Record:	7-5
Expected OOC RPI:	262
Expected OOC SOS:	303

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
14-15	221.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Houston.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-12	Grambling (341.0)	SWAC	H	88-42	W	100%
11-14	Utah Valley (230.0)	GWC	H	84-71	W	100%
11-18	Arkansas (110.0)	SEC	N	78-87	W	100%
11-22	Oakland (139.0)	Sum	H	74-76	L	0%
11-26	Texas Christian (114.0)	MWC	H	80-81	L	0%
11-29	Louisiana St. (84.0)	SEC	H	58-59	L	0%
12-3	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (319.0)	Slnd	H	87-66	W	100%
12-6	Texas St. (287.0)	Slnd	A	81-78	L	0%
12-17	Oklahoma (137.0)	B12	N	79-74	L	0%
12-20	Texas San Antonio (196.0)	Slnd	H	77-75	W	100%
12-28	North Carolina A&T (289.0)	MEAC	H	71-67	W	100%
12-30	Texas St. (287.0)	Slnd	H	94-71	W	100%
1-4	Tulsa (120.0)	CUSA	H	70-69	W	100%
1-7	Texas El Paso (147.0)	CUSA	A	70-50	L	0%
1-11	Central Florida (54.0)	CUSA	A	74-63	L	0%
1-14	Memphis (16.0)	CUSA	H	55-89	L	0%
1-18	Southern Methodist (212.0)	CUSA	A	70-54	L	0%
1-21	East Carolina (164.0)	CUSA	H	82-76	W	100%
1-28	Texas El Paso (147.0)	CUSA	H	81-76	W	100%
2-1	UAB (112.0)	CUSA	A	80-69	L	0%
2-4	Tulane (250.0)	CUSA	A	75-54	L	0%
2-8	Rice (171.0)	CUSA	H	71-79	L	0%
2-11	Tulsa (120.0)	CUSA	A	72-48	L	0%
2-18	Southern Mississippi (20.0)	CUSA	H	73-71	W	100%
2-22	Marshall (43.0)	CUSA	A	66-58	L	0%
2-25	Southern Methodist (212.0)	CUSA	H	62-59	W	100%
2-29	Tulane (250.0)	CUSA	H	82-53	W	100%
3-3	Rice (171.0)	CUSA	A	75-76	W	100%
3-7	Texas El Paso (147.0)	CUSA	N	67-62	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Houston's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Houston's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Houston.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Houston	CUSA	26.29	26.29	41.03	41.03	-4.72	-4.72
Texas El Paso	CUSA	5.86	5.86	44.83	44.83	-0.61	-0.61
Rice	CUSA	4.21	4.21	48.15	48.15	-0.16	-0.16
Tulsa	CUSA	4.19	4.19	55.17	55.17	0.43	0.43
Southern Methodist	CUSA	4.18	4.18	35.71	35.71	-1.19	-1.19
Tulane	CUSA	4.15	4.15	44.44	44.44	-0.46	-0.46
Texas St.	Slnd	3.56	3.56	33.33	33.33	-1.19	-1.19
Marshall	CUSA	2.49	2.49	59.38	59.38	0.47	0.47
Memphis	CUSA	2.46	2.46	75.76	75.76	1.27	1.27
UAB	CUSA	2.41	2.41	46.67	46.67	-0.16	-0.16
Central Florida	CUSA	2.40	2.40	65.52	65.52	0.74	0.74
East Carolina	CUSA	2.40	2.40	42.31	42.31	-0.37	-0.37
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	2.37	2.37	76.67	76.67	1.27	1.27
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	2.00	2.00	55.17	55.17	0.21	0.21
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	1.97	1.97	20.69	20.69	-1.16	-1.16
Texas Christian	MWC	1.93	1.93	51.72	51.72	0.07	0.07
Arkansas	SEC	1.92	1.92	58.06	58.06	0.31	0.31
Grambling	SWAC	1.87	1.87	14.81	14.81	-1.31	-1.31
Louisiana St.	SEC	1.84	1.84	54.84	54.84	0.18	0.18
Oakland	Sum	1.81	1.81	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Utah Valley	GWC	1.81	1.81	59.26	59.26	0.34	0.34
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	1.75	1.75	32.14	32.14	-0.63	-0.63
Oklahoma	B12	1.75	1.75	46.67	46.67	-0.12	-0.12
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.33	0.33	57.14	57.14	0.05	0.05
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.30	0.30	74.19	74.19	0.15	0.15
Colorado St.	MWC	0.28	0.28	63.33	63.33	0.07	0.07
Southern	SWAC	0.26	0.26	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.26	0.26	48.28	48.28	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.25	0.25	60.61	60.61	0.05	0.05
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.25	0.25	32.14	32.14	-0.09	-0.09
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.23	0.23	43.75	43.75	-0.03	-0.03
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.22	0.22	72.73	72.73	0.10	0.10
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.22	0.22	25.00	25.00	-0.11	-0.11
Lamar	Slnd	0.21	0.21	65.62	65.62	0.07	0.07
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.21	0.21	28.57	28.57	-0.09	-0.09
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.21	0.21	34.62	34.62	-0.06	-0.06
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.20	0.20	20.00	20.00	-0.12	-0.12
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.20	0.20	33.33	33.33	-0.07	-0.07
Auburn	SEC	0.19	0.19	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.19	0.19	25.93	25.93	-0.09	-0.09
Texas	B12	0.18	0.18	60.61	60.61	0.04	0.04
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.18	0.18	44.83	44.83	-0.02	-0.02
Texas A&M	B12	0.17	0.17	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.17	0.17	81.82	81.82	0.11	0.11
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.15	0.15	19.23	19.23	-0.09	-0.09
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.15	0.15	25.00	25.00	-0.07	-0.07
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.15	0.15	20.69	20.69	-0.09	-0.09
Texas Tech	B12	0.14	0.14	25.81	25.81	-0.07	-0.07
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.14	0.14	75.00	75.00	0.07	0.07
Kansas St.	B12	0.14	0.14	67.74	67.74	0.05	0.05
Alabama	SEC	0.14	0.14	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Tennessee	SEC	0.13	0.13	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.12	0.12	23.08	23.08	-0.07	-0.07
South Dakota	Sum	0.12	0.12	28.00	28.00	-0.05	-0.05
Wyoming	MWC	0.12	0.12	62.07	62.07	0.03	0.03
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.12	0.12	25.81	25.81	-0.06	-0.06
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.12	0.12	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.12	0.12	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
Iowa St.	B12	0.12	0.12	68.75	68.75	0.04	0.04
Creighton	MVC	0.11	0.11	84.85	84.85	0.08	0.08
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.11	0.11	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.11	0.11	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
UC Riverside	BW	0.11	0.11	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.09	0.09	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.09	0.09	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.09	0.09	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.09	0.09	10.71	10.71	-0.07	-0.07
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.09	0.09	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.09	0.09	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.09	0.09	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.09	0.09	10.34	10.34	-0.07	-0.07
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.09	0.09	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.09	0.09	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.09	0.09	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Fresno St.	WAC	0.09	0.09	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.09	0.09	93.94	93.94	0.08	0.08
Boise St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Charlotte	A10	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Arizona St.	P12	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Southern Utah	Sum	0.08	0.08	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	83.87	83.87	0.06	0.06
Northwestern	B10	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.08	0.08	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Florida	SEC	0.08	0.08	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Murray St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	96.43	96.43	0.08	0.08
Clemson	ACC	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.08	0.08	94.12	94.12	0.07	0.07
Oregon	P12	0.08	0.08	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Michigan	B10	0.08	0.08	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
Belmont	ASun	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Fordham	A10	0.07	0.07	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Long Island	NEC	0.07	0.07	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Toledo	MAC	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Campbell	BSth	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
NC Greensboro	SC	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota	GWC	0.06	0.06	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Seattle	ind	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Old Dominion	CAA	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Utah St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Navy	Pat	0.06	0.06	7.14	7.14	-0.05	-0.05
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Temple	A10	0.06	0.06	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Wofford	SC	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.06	0.06	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
North Texas	SB	0.06	0.06	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.06	0.06	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
New Mexico	MWC	0.06	0.06	81.25	81.25	0.04	0.04
San Diego St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Denver	SB	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Troy	SB	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Akron	MAC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Connecticut	BE	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Baylor	B12	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.06	0.06	29.63	29.63	-0.02	-0.02
IUPUI	Sum	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas	B12	0.06	0.06	81.82	81.82	0.04	0.04
Mercer	ASun	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Missouri	B12	0.06	0.06	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Western Illinois	Sum	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
High Point	BSth	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
West Virginia	BE	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	73.33	73.33	0.02	0.02
Appalachian St.	SC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Maine	AE	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Montana	BSky	0.03	0.03	79.31	79.31	0.02	0.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Portland St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Hawaii	WAC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
St. Mary's	WCC	0.03	0.03	83.33	83.33	0.02	0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Hartford	AE	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.03	0.03	86.21	86.21	0.02	0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.02	-0.02
Samford	SC	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
San Jose St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Southern California	P12	0.03	0.03	18.75	18.75	-0.02	-0.02
Stetson	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona	P12	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
George Washington	A10	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Idaho St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	30.77	30.77	-0.01	-0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.03	0.03	21.43	21.43	-0.02	-0.02
South Florida	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.03	0.03	6.90	6.90	-0.02	-0.02
Valparaiso	Horz	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.03	0.03	82.35	82.35	0.02	0.02
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Rutgers	BE	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Louisville	BE	0.03	0.03	74.29	74.29	0.01	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Xavier	A10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01