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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Houston

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:143.0
Current RPI:143
Expected SOS:119
Current SOS:119
Current Record:17-16
Expected Record:17-16
Current Conf Record:9-11
Expected Conf Record:9-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-2
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:257
Expected OOC SOS:342



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-16143.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Houston.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Texas St. (307.0)SBH76-70W100%0.0
11-11Texas Pan American (312.0)WACA65-77W100%0.0
11-14UTSA (306.0)CUSAH80-62W100%0.0
11-17Lehigh (236.0)PatH80-66W100%0.0
11-21Howard (323.0)MEACH75-62W100%0.0
11-25Stanford (41.0)P12N76-86L0%0.0
11-26Texas Tech (121.0)B12N64-76L0%0.0
11-30Texas A&M Corpus Chris (249.0)SlndH78-67W100%0.0
12-4Texas A&M (148.0)SECA74-57L0%0.0
12-7San Jose St. (278.0)MWCH68-72L0%0.0
12-9Alcorn St. (314.0)SWACH89-58W100%0.0
12-14Louisiana Lafayette (90.0)SBA79-76L0%0.0
12-21Rice (299.0)CUSAN54-52W100%0.0
12-31Connecticut (22.0)AmerH75-71W100%0.0
1-4South Florida (232.0)AmerA58-67W100%0.0
1-7Cincinnati (21.0)AmerH60-61L0%0.0
1-16Louisville (19.0)AmerA91-52L0%0.0
1-19Rutgers (192.0)AmerH77-55W100%0.0
1-23Memphis (37.0)AmerA82-59L0%0.0
1-26SMU (53.0)AmerH68-75L0%0.0
1-30Connecticut (22.0)AmerA80-43L0%0.0
2-1Rutgers (192.0)AmerA93-70L0%0.0
2-5Louisville (19.0)AmerH62-77L0%0.0
2-9Temple (175.0)AmerH88-74W100%0.0
2-15Cincinnati (21.0)AmerA73-62L0%0.0
2-19SMU (53.0)AmerA68-64L0%0.0
2-22UCF (220.0)AmerH88-84W100%0.0
2-27Memphis (37.0)AmerH77-68W100%0.0
3-1Temple (175.0)AmerA79-89W100%0.0
3-4South Florida (232.0)AmerH78-69W100%0.0
3-7UCF (220.0)AmerA104-83L0%0.0
3-13SMU (53.0)AmerN64-68W100%0.0
3-14Louisville (19.0)AmerN94-65L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Houston's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Houston's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Houston.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
HoustonAmer26.4126.4148.9148.91-0.58-0.58
LouisvilleAmer5.475.4783.8783.873.713.71
SMUAmer5.425.4272.4172.412.432.43
ConnecticutAmer4.074.0778.1278.122.292.29
RutgersAmer4.004.0033.3333.33-1.33-1.33
UCFAmer3.993.9937.0437.04-1.03-1.03
CincinnatiAmer3.983.9880.6580.652.442.44
TempleAmer3.933.9331.0331.03-1.49-1.49
South FloridaAmer3.933.9340.0040.00-0.79-0.79
MemphisAmer3.923.9272.4172.411.761.76
Texas Pan AmericanWAC1.691.6926.6726.67-0.79-0.79
UTSACUSA1.641.6423.0823.08-0.88-0.88
Texas A&MSEC1.641.6451.6151.610.050.05
Texas St.SB1.641.6421.4321.43-0.93-0.93
Louisiana LafayetteSB1.631.6363.3363.330.440.44
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd1.591.5955.5655.560.180.18
RiceCUSA1.591.5918.5218.52-1.00-1.00
HowardMEAC1.571.5720.0020.00-0.94-0.94
StanfordP121.561.5662.5062.500.390.39
Texas TechB121.541.5441.9441.94-0.25-0.25
Alcorn St.SWAC1.521.5233.3333.33-0.51-0.51
LehighPat1.521.5245.1645.16-0.15-0.15
San Jose St.MWC1.521.5214.2914.29-1.08-1.08
Oklahoma St.B120.220.2263.6463.640.060.06
Texas SouthernSWAC0.200.2056.2556.250.020.02
Western KentuckySB0.190.1961.2961.290.040.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.170.1725.9325.93-0.08-0.08
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.170.1768.9768.970.070.07
Georgia St.SB0.150.1574.1974.190.070.07
UABCUSA0.150.1555.1755.170.020.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.150.1543.3343.33-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.150.1569.7069.700.060.06
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.150.1537.9337.93-0.04-0.04
ArkansasSEC0.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
TCUB120.140.1424.1424.14-0.07-0.07
PittsburghACC0.140.1473.5373.530.070.07
HofstraCAA0.140.1430.3030.30-0.05-0.05
Nicholls St.Slnd0.130.1346.1546.15-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.130.1328.5728.57-0.05-0.05
TroySB0.130.1331.0331.03-0.05-0.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.130.1335.4835.48-0.04-0.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.120.1216.6716.67-0.08-0.08
WyomingMWC0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
FIUCUSA0.120.1246.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.120.1280.6580.650.070.07
LSUSEC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.120.1294.1294.120.100.10
UMKCWAC0.120.1234.4834.48-0.04-0.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Louisiana TechCUSA0.110.1178.7978.790.060.06
North TexasCUSA0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.100.1014.8114.81-0.07-0.07
ValparaisoHorz0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.100.1034.6234.62-0.03-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.100.1048.1548.15-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.100.1022.5822.58-0.05-0.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
New MexicoMWC0.100.1081.8281.820.060.06
OklahomaB120.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
HarvardIvy0.100.1086.2186.210.070.07
Chicago St.WAC0.090.0936.6736.67-0.03-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.090.0983.8783.870.060.06
South Dakota St.Sum0.090.0957.1457.140.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.0942.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Boston UniversityPat0.090.0970.5970.590.040.04
DetroitHorz0.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.090.0934.4834.48-0.03-0.03
YaleIvy0.090.0951.8551.850.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.090.0970.5970.590.040.04
Missouri St.MVC0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
WashingtonP120.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
TulaneCUSA0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
Oral RobertsSlnd0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.0824.0024.00-0.04-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0830.3030.30-0.03-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Iowa St.B120.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
PrincetonIvy0.070.0770.3770.370.030.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.070.0762.0762.070.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
AmericanPat0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
BaylorB120.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
BradleyMVC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Holy CrossPat0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
UICHorz0.070.0713.7913.79-0.05-0.05
Rhode IslandA100.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.070.0782.3582.350.050.05
USCP120.070.0732.2632.26-0.02-0.02
BucknellPat0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
ArizonaP120.070.0788.2488.240.050.05
UCLAP120.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Washington St.P120.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
CornellIvy0.070.073.703.70-0.06-0.06
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0721.8821.88-0.04-0.04
HartfordAE0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
TulsaCUSA0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0514.8114.81-0.04-0.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0530.7730.77-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0593.1093.100.050.05
Air ForceMWC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
NevadaMWC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
Utah St.MWC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
LamarSlnd0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
MinnesotaB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
RiderMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UC DavisBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UtahP120.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0546.1546.15-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
IdahoWAC0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
PennIvy0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
SeattleWAC0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
VillanovaBE0.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
FordhamA100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
ColgatePat0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
George MasonA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
KansasB120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Kansas St.B120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
LafayettePat0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
NavyPat0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0541.1841.18-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Appalachian St.SC0.050.0519.2319.23-0.03-0.03
CaliforniaP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
CampbellBSth0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0513.7913.79-0.03-0.03
NebraskaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
XavierBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.040.0422.5822.58-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.040.0444.8344.83-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.040.0453.1253.120.000.00
MaineAE0.040.0417.8617.86-0.03-0.03
MarylandACC0.040.0451.6151.610.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
MercerASun0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.020.0264.2964.290.010.01
MississippiSEC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.020.0216.1316.13-0.02-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
MichiganB100.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
NorthwesternB100.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Oregon St.P120.020.0251.6151.610.000.00