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Through games of Dec 18, 2014.


Houston

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:204.7
Current RPI:194
Expected SOS:167
Current SOS:311
Current Record:5-2
Expected Record:14-15
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-3
Current OOC Record:5-2
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:208
Expected OOC SOS:338



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-877.40.07%
20-998.50.39%
19-10112.71.17%
18-11130.23.30%
17-12148.67.17%
16-13167.713.08%
15-14187.617.36%
14-15208.019.53%
13-16228.417.41%
12-17247.611.26%
11-18266.56.39%
10-19281.82.10%
9-20294.70.64%
8-21306.10.10%
7-22317.00.01%
6-23315.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Houston.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Murray St. (160.4)OVCA74-77W100%0.0
11-22Morgan St. (303.9)MEACH72-57W100%0.0
11-25Harvard (50.6)IvyA84-63L0%0.0
12-4Texas Pan American (264.5)WACH72-58W100%0.0
12-6Abilene Christian (336.9)SlndH71-59W100%0.0
12-16Houston Baptist (263.6)SlndH83-76W100%0.0
12-17Arkansas Pine Bluff (297.0)SWACH56-61L0%0.0
12-19South Carolina St. (306.7)MEACH0-087%13.3
12-22Boise St. (62.9)MWCN0-021%-9.6
12-28Mississippi Valley St. (347.1)SWACH0-096%21.3
12-31Memphis (85.7)AmerA0-015%-12.4
1-4Tulsa (100.2)AmerA0-018%-10.7
1-6UCF (253.3)AmerH0-077%8.6
1-11Memphis (85.7)AmerH0-038%-3.6
1-14East Carolina (216.3)AmerA0-036%-4.1
1-17Tulane (152.3)AmerH0-056%1.7
1-21Cincinnati (49.1)AmerA0-010%-15.0
1-24SMU (35.6)AmerA0-07%-16.9
1-28Rice (284.0)CUSAH0-075%7.8
2-1Connecticut (71.3)AmerH0-033%-5.1
2-5Tulsa (100.2)AmerH0-044%-1.9
2-12SMU (35.6)AmerH0-024%-8.2
2-15UCF (253.3)AmerA0-049%-0.1
2-17South Florida (169.1)AmerA0-029%-6.6
2-21Cincinnati (49.1)AmerH0-030%-6.3
2-26Temple (105.5)AmerA0-021%-9.4
3-1South Florida (169.1)AmerH0-057%2.2
3-4Tulane (152.3)AmerA0-028%-7.0
3-8East Carolina (216.3)AmerH0-065%4.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Houston's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Houston's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Houston.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
HoustonAmer28.3426.3365.5243.948.80-3.19
MemphisAmer0.004.3055.5659.040.000.78
TulsaAmer0.604.2960.0055.890.120.51
TulaneAmer0.004.2987.5054.530.000.39
UCFAmer0.004.2955.5634.790.00-1.30
South FloridaAmer0.004.2744.4443.91-0.00-0.52
CincinnatiAmer0.004.2777.7868.440.001.57
East CarolinaAmer0.004.2637.5037.83-0.00-1.04
SMUAmer0.004.2670.0070.380.001.74
TempleAmer0.002.6663.6454.830.000.26
ConnecticutAmer0.002.6550.0057.190.000.38
Abilene ChristianSlnd7.141.9220.0020.44-4.29-1.13
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.001.8410.0018.49-0.00-1.16
Houston BaptistSlnd7.141.8225.0041.43-3.57-0.31
South Carolina St.MEAC0.001.7820.0030.44-0.00-0.70
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC7.141.7811.1136.18-5.56-0.49
RiceCUSA0.711.7616.6726.32-0.48-0.83
Boise St.MWC0.001.7675.0068.290.000.64
Morgan St.MEAC7.141.7520.0037.23-4.29-0.45
HarvardIvy7.141.7283.3371.864.760.75
Murray St.OVC7.141.7262.5064.081.790.49
Texas Pan AmericanWAC7.141.7242.8642.78-1.02-0.25
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.2811.1144.04-0.00-0.03
LamarSlnd0.450.2614.2934.12-0.32-0.08
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.2318.1844.62-0.00-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.200.0039.41-0.00-0.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.2044.4470.08-0.000.08
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.2075.0074.340.000.10
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.510.1950.0052.710.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.170.0033.84-0.00-0.06
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.1711.1144.62-0.00-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.450.1750.0074.000.000.08
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.1625.0028.68-0.00-0.07
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.1666.6777.690.000.09
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.1520.0034.08-0.00-0.05
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.1566.6762.620.000.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.1518.1828.02-0.00-0.07
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.1481.8264.110.000.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.450.1433.3362.92-0.150.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.140.0031.74-0.00-0.05
Alcorn St.SWAC0.400.140.0028.26-0.40-0.06
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1336.3644.53-0.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.450.1342.8637.65-0.06-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.000.1230.0029.80-0.00-0.05
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1218.1821.30-0.00-0.07
DetroitHorz0.000.1244.4448.88-0.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.1250.0037.510.00-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.1241.6744.33-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.120.0012.36-0.00-0.09
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.400.1244.4445.64-0.04-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1240.0046.73-0.00-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.1233.3338.99-0.00-0.03
San Diego St.MWC0.000.1270.0072.830.000.05
USC UpstateASun0.000.1260.0064.620.000.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.120.0014.79-0.00-0.08
GonzagaWCC0.000.1290.0090.940.000.09
Oklahoma St.B120.000.1288.8963.660.000.03
Oral RobertsSum0.000.1244.4445.59-0.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.1287.5085.320.000.08
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.110.008.88-0.00-0.09
UC RiversideBW0.600.1042.8643.10-0.09-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.1062.5064.770.000.03
YaleIvy0.000.1072.7367.180.000.03
PennIvy0.000.0937.5033.00-0.00-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.360.0910.0030.45-0.29-0.04
North TexasCUSA0.000.0942.8636.79-0.00-0.02
CreightonBE0.000.0972.7351.560.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.600.0971.4359.920.260.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0950.0049.620.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.000.09100.0071.820.000.04
WyomingMWC0.000.0977.7873.370.000.04
UABCUSA0.000.0930.0037.28-0.00-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.360.0957.1461.670.050.02
UNLVMWC0.000.0975.0050.750.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.320.0940.0050.32-0.060.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.320.0950.0056.340.000.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0922.2230.85-0.00-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.090.0023.15-0.00-0.05
HawaiiBW0.360.0966.6754.830.120.01
IndianaB100.000.0980.0057.630.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0950.0039.340.00-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0955.5638.600.00-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0918.1846.16-0.00-0.01
XavierBE0.400.0980.0070.960.240.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.070.0017.51-0.00-0.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0725.0049.09-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.070.0038.46-0.00-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.070.0018.94-0.00-0.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.070.0037.73-0.00-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.710.0750.0053.850.000.01
BrownIvy0.000.0740.0033.79-0.00-0.02
CornellIvy0.000.0755.5648.240.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.000.0744.4447.53-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0727.2737.85-0.00-0.02
VirginiaACC0.000.06100.0085.310.000.05
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0660.0064.610.000.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0011.40-0.00-0.05
DuquesneA100.600.0628.5731.23-0.26-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0636.3664.92-0.000.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0688.8981.310.000.04
SeattleWAC0.000.0637.5046.50-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.000.0622.2241.92-0.00-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0633.3340.31-0.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0666.6772.670.000.03
NorthwesternB100.710.0660.0040.620.14-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.400.0655.5649.500.04-0.00
BryantNEC0.000.0628.5747.24-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0622.2230.99-0.00-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0657.1470.590.000.03
Colorado St.MWC0.000.06100.0078.050.000.03
DavidsonA100.000.0687.5077.020.000.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0642.8655.64-0.000.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0670.0058.600.000.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.060.007.84-0.00-0.05
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.060.0023.71-0.00-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0644.4447.53-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.000.0610.0027.42-0.00-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0662.5066.700.000.02
Utah St.MWC0.000.0655.5650.970.000.00
TexasB120.000.0690.0081.860.000.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0672.7367.750.000.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0677.7855.460.000.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0650.0044.900.00-0.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0630.0043.91-0.00-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0671.4357.100.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0677.7871.960.000.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0642.8638.26-0.00-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0644.4436.35-0.00-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0666.6777.030.000.03
Green BayHorz0.000.0675.0078.480.000.03
James MadisonCAA0.000.0670.0060.790.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0642.8652.71-0.000.00
MichiganB100.000.0655.5642.550.00-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0637.5040.20-0.00-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0644.4456.51-0.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0670.0071.630.000.03
OklahomaB120.000.0677.7867.290.000.02
St. John'sBE0.000.0687.5065.040.000.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0637.5064.43-0.000.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0614.2945.19-0.00-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0622.2237.75-0.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0650.0053.700.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.0650.0038.000.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0616.6727.56-0.00-0.03
Texas TechB120.000.0688.8955.910.000.01
ValparaisoHorz0.750.0680.0069.620.450.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.0666.6754.660.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0675.0067.580.000.02
HofstraCAA0.000.0677.7878.540.000.03
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0610.0018.58-0.00-0.04
Seton HallBE0.000.0690.0067.260.000.02
DukeACC0.000.06100.0087.140.000.04
StanfordP120.000.0675.0057.570.000.01
TowsonCAA0.320.0666.6751.430.110.00
BaylorB120.000.0690.0073.870.000.03
BradleyMVC0.000.0633.3332.09-0.00-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0633.3332.85-0.00-0.02
MississippiSEC0.000.0670.0052.610.000.00
NebraskaB100.000.0666.6743.780.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0650.0062.270.000.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0633.3354.74-0.000.01
VCUA100.000.0670.0071.420.000.02
WagnerNEC0.000.0614.2933.54-0.00-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0637.5031.95-0.00-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.710.0455.5654.950.080.00
Arizona St.P120.000.0360.0053.820.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0366.6742.100.00-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.510.0333.3342.19-0.17-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.510.0357.1453.130.070.00
MassachusettsA100.510.0360.0055.630.100.00
NortheasternCAA0.510.0366.6757.860.170.01
VermontAE0.510.0344.4457.85-0.060.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0344.4451.04-0.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.0371.4361.370.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0325.0038.92-0.00-0.01
MercerSC0.000.0337.5042.45-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0344.4455.75-0.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.450.0325.0032.77-0.22-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.600.0342.8642.32-0.09-0.00
Saint LouisA100.450.0360.0033.870.09-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0342.8627.08-0.00-0.01
UtahP120.450.0377.7879.480.250.02
Washington St.P120.000.0340.0028.86-0.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0357.1456.750.000.00
BelmontOVC0.000.0360.0062.970.000.01
DrakeMVC0.400.0320.0019.99-0.24-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.400.0377.7871.110.220.01
FordhamA100.000.0328.5728.26-0.00-0.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0337.5049.83-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0366.6764.310.000.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0325.0023.43-0.00-0.02
MontanaBSky0.000.0325.0052.09-0.000.00
NevadaMWC0.000.0311.1125.02-0.00-0.02
PortlandWCC0.400.0366.6748.410.13-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.0354.5557.300.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0360.0049.500.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0016.85-0.00-0.02
WisconsinB100.000.0390.9188.390.000.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0320.0028.20-0.00-0.01
DaytonA100.000.0377.7870.120.000.01
ElonCAA0.320.0337.5047.87-0.08-0.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0360.0064.930.000.01
LibertyBSth0.320.0325.0034.77-0.16-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0322.2237.50-0.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0355.5647.870.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.320.0390.0078.050.260.02
Penn St.B100.320.0390.9153.850.270.00
RiderMAAC0.320.0350.0052.800.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.320.0337.5046.78-0.08-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.320.0355.5638.130.04-0.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0390.0066.940.000.01
AkronMAC0.360.0360.0056.560.070.00
AmericanPat0.000.0360.0065.400.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.360.0385.7170.350.260.01
DelawareCAA0.000.030.007.39-0.00-0.02
High PointBSth0.360.0362.5056.410.090.00
Iowa St.B120.000.0388.8963.800.000.01
KansasB120.000.0388.8969.390.000.01
La SalleA100.000.0350.0049.960.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0333.3344.71-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.360.0372.7373.150.160.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0350.0032.620.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.360.0342.8638.11-0.05-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0355.5640.500.00-0.01
TCUB120.000.03100.0066.180.000.01
VillanovaBE0.000.03100.0082.080.000.02