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Through games of Feb 10, 2016.


Houston

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:95.7
Current RPI:94
Expected SOS:134
Current SOS:150
Current Record:17-7
Expected Record:20-10
Current Conf Record:7-5
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-1
Current OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC RPI:125
Expected OOC SOS:324



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-760.71.32%
22-872.012.89%
21-985.532.96%
20-10100.933.23%
19-11118.115.50%
18-12136.33.90%
17-13154.30.19%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Houston.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-18Prairie View A&M (343.7)SWACH110-69W100%0.0
11-21Florida A&M (347.3)MEACH97-52W100%0.0
11-28Louisiana Monroe (173.3)SBH76-64W100%0.0
11-30UT Rio Grande Valley (340.3)WACH78-65W100%0.0
12-2Murray St. (186.4)OVCH93-78W100%0.0
12-8Rhode Island (97.9)A10A67-57L0%0.0
12-13LSU (86.5)SECH105-98W100%0.0
12-16North Carolina Central (320.6)MEACH73-65W100%0.0
12-19Eastern Illinois (268.0)OVCH81-65W100%0.0
12-21Grand Canyon (101.1)WACN69-78L0%0.0
12-22Wyoming (179.2)MWCN89-94W100%0.0
12-28Nicholls St. (324.7)SlndH76-49W100%0.0
12-30South Florida (245.3)AmerA67-73W100%0.0
1-2Temple (84.7)AmerA50-77W100%0.0
1-5Tulane (228.6)AmerH63-45W100%0.0
1-13Cincinnati (47.3)AmerA70-59L0%0.0
1-17Connecticut (36.1)AmerH57-69L0%0.0
1-19SMU (16.4)AmerA77-73L0%0.0
1-23South Florida (245.3)AmerH62-71L0%0.0
1-27Tulsa (55.7)AmerH81-66W100%0.0
1-30East Carolina (198.7)AmerA93-97W100%0.0
2-1SMU (16.4)AmerH71-68W100%0.0
2-7Tulsa (55.7)AmerA77-63L0%0.0
2-10Memphis (120.6)AmerH98-90W100%0.0
2-13UCF (196.9)AmerH0-083%10.5
2-17Tulane (228.6)AmerA0-071%6.0
2-21Temple (84.7)AmerH0-068%5.1
2-24UCF (196.9)AmerA0-064%3.8
2-28Connecticut (36.1)AmerA0-016%-10.6
3-3Cincinnati (47.3)AmerH0-037%-3.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Houston's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Houston's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Houston.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
HoustonAmer26.3526.2967.7165.249.338.01
ConnecticutAmer2.474.1372.7371.251.121.76
TulaneAmer2.784.1337.5036.33-0.70-1.13
TulsaAmer4.654.1368.1865.781.691.30
SMUAmer4.774.1290.4885.253.862.91
South FloridaAmer4.614.1017.3917.67-3.00-2.65
CincinnatiAmer2.704.1070.8370.861.121.71
TempleAmer2.604.1066.6762.840.871.05
UCFAmer0.654.0950.0046.020.00-0.33
MemphisAmer2.612.5760.8761.340.570.58
East CarolinaAmer2.572.5543.4840.77-0.34-0.47
North Carolina CentralMEAC2.181.7626.3234.53-1.03-0.55
Eastern IllinoisOVC2.181.7640.9142.61-0.40-0.26
Nicholls St.Slnd2.221.7519.0521.88-1.37-0.98
Florida A&MMEAC2.141.7326.3226.13-1.01-0.83
Grand CanyonWAC2.181.7381.8280.431.391.05
Murray St.OVC2.131.7347.6251.60-0.100.06
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC2.171.7315.0016.07-1.52-1.17
Prairie View A&MSWAC2.121.729.5217.73-1.72-1.11
Louisiana MonroeSB2.081.6745.0048.01-0.21-0.07
LSUSEC2.081.6765.2261.020.630.37
Rhode IslandA102.081.6756.5255.800.270.19
WyomingMWC2.081.6745.4543.99-0.19-0.20
SouthernSWAC0.280.2361.9065.310.070.07
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.100.2231.8236.14-0.04-0.06
HamptonMEAC0.340.2159.0961.310.060.05
George WashingtonA100.170.1975.0071.920.080.08
Savannah St.MEAC0.190.1838.1037.70-0.04-0.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.190.1813.6415.80-0.14-0.12
South CarolinaSEC0.260.1686.9680.370.190.10
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.1629.1733.11-0.04-0.05
Tennessee MartinOVC0.140.1647.8350.01-0.010.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.140.1517.3920.66-0.09-0.09
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.140.1566.6767.710.050.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.190.1565.2268.590.060.06
Delaware St.MEAC0.200.159.0912.25-0.16-0.11
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.1414.2924.86-0.07-0.07
San Diego St.MWC0.180.1469.5770.070.070.06
Alabama A&MSWAC0.140.1436.8442.89-0.04-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.180.1490.4886.910.150.10
Chicago St.WAC0.090.124.357.72-0.09-0.10
SeattleWAC0.090.1247.6245.00-0.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.090.1228.5732.73-0.04-0.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.140.1233.3334.95-0.05-0.04
Austin PeayOVC0.140.1240.0042.85-0.03-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.190.1250.0051.190.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.1219.0525.90-0.06-0.06
Norfolk St.MEAC0.150.1243.4850.66-0.020.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.140.1240.0040.34-0.03-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.140.1220.0022.26-0.09-0.07
Texas St.SB0.150.1236.8437.57-0.04-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.180.1250.0049.600.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.130.1125.0030.04-0.07-0.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.140.1143.4843.76-0.02-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.140.1126.0929.18-0.07-0.05
New OrleansSlnd0.090.1127.7834.45-0.04-0.03
TroySB0.130.1123.8126.72-0.07-0.05
MassachusettsA100.040.1140.9139.26-0.01-0.02
TCUB120.180.1145.8339.35-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.1124.0025.67-0.05-0.05
ButlerBE0.090.1170.8368.990.040.04
DelawareCAA0.130.1121.7423.32-0.07-0.06
GonzagaWCC0.050.1178.2676.880.030.06
Grambling St.SWAC0.130.1115.0018.11-0.09-0.07
La SalleA100.130.1119.0520.33-0.08-0.06
MichiganB100.140.1170.8366.720.060.04
New HampshireAE0.140.1157.1453.980.020.01
North CarolinaACC0.090.1183.3378.400.060.06
Saint Joseph'sA100.130.1183.3381.320.090.07
NebraskaB100.130.1152.0050.780.010.00
VCUA100.090.1173.9174.060.040.05
KentuckySEC0.130.1175.0072.630.060.05
North FloridaASun0.150.0965.2267.120.040.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.150.0952.1754.140.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.140.0958.3358.480.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.140.0950.0049.850.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.140.0971.4368.750.060.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.100.0917.6526.58-0.06-0.04
UNLVMWC0.090.0952.1755.090.000.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.090.0817.6529.03-0.06-0.04
South AlabamaSB0.090.0833.3334.19-0.03-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.090.0868.1871.310.030.04
DavidsonA100.000.0861.9058.060.000.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.040.0822.7327.18-0.02-0.04
StetsonASun0.040.0823.8127.73-0.02-0.04
ColoradoP120.140.0869.5765.310.050.03
Kent St.MAC0.140.0865.2260.580.040.02
MinnesotaB100.100.0825.0027.23-0.05-0.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.140.0845.0049.23-0.01-0.00
WisconsinB100.090.0862.5056.960.020.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.040.0872.2275.620.020.04
BrownIvy0.130.0831.5831.04-0.05-0.03
IonaMAAC0.130.0860.8760.750.030.02
Oral RobertsSum0.130.0839.1341.11-0.03-0.01
MarylandB100.090.0887.5083.690.070.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.130.0850.0049.050.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.090.0860.0055.540.020.01
Southern MissCUSA0.090.0831.5832.01-0.03-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.100.0752.1751.940.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.100.0673.0872.640.050.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.100.0635.0034.80-0.03-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.090.0631.5837.72-0.03-0.02
BelmontOVC0.090.0668.0066.660.030.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0652.0050.230.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.090.0624.0024.17-0.05-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0650.0052.380.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.090.0668.1865.160.030.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.090.0665.2264.370.030.02
Western IllinoisSum0.090.0627.7829.16-0.04-0.03
LamarSlnd0.100.0630.0029.28-0.04-0.03
Utah St.MWC0.090.0647.6249.26-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.100.0621.7423.40-0.05-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0659.0955.220.020.01
Air ForceMWC0.090.0643.4837.81-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0642.8639.23-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0660.8760.530.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.100.0644.0045.35-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0654.5552.540.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0663.6461.640.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0640.0038.97-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0657.8956.090.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.090.0652.9452.060.010.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.100.0657.8961.760.020.01
Montana St.BSky0.090.0640.9143.75-0.02-0.01
NevadaMWC0.090.0657.1455.290.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.090.0658.3360.690.020.01
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0623.8122.82-0.02-0.03
DetroitHorz0.000.0647.6245.85-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.065.007.22-0.00-0.05
Miami OHMAC0.000.0634.7833.05-0.00-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.000.0672.7371.660.000.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0627.2731.06-0.00-0.02
CaliforniaP120.090.0665.2262.830.030.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0628.5733.35-0.02-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0650.0051.910.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0650.0054.190.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.090.0637.5037.41-0.02-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.090.0610.0013.14-0.07-0.04
OhioMAC0.090.0663.6461.480.020.01
Oklahoma St.B120.090.0645.8342.32-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.090.0661.9056.450.020.01
PennIvy0.050.0638.8937.69-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.090.0650.0046.530.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.090.0645.4554.16-0.010.00
UtahP120.050.0670.8368.500.020.02
VillanovaBE0.000.0687.5086.870.000.04
Wichita St.MVC0.090.0673.9176.740.040.03
YaleIvy0.090.0673.6874.680.040.03
AlabamaSEC0.040.0560.8755.970.010.01
AlbanyAE0.080.0576.0076.320.040.03
AmericanPat0.090.0529.1731.18-0.04-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.040.0550.0053.000.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.080.0556.0056.490.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.040.0550.0045.820.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0513.0413.56-0.03-0.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.090.0563.6460.930.020.01
DaytonA100.000.0586.9682.150.000.03
DrakeMVC0.040.0520.8323.19-0.02-0.03
FloridaSEC0.040.0566.6766.330.010.02
FordhamA100.040.0552.3850.750.000.00
FurmanSC0.050.0554.1754.080.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.050.0556.0052.840.010.00
Georgia TechACC0.040.0554.1751.980.000.00
Iowa St.B120.040.0570.8368.000.020.02
LibertyBSth0.040.0534.7836.51-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.050.0533.3333.13-0.02-0.02
MercerSC0.040.0569.5769.040.020.02
MississippiSEC0.090.0562.5058.920.020.01
NJITASun0.080.0554.1755.260.010.01
OklahomaB120.090.0586.9682.580.060.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.040.0528.0030.70-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0534.7837.06-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.080.0570.8368.100.030.02
SyracuseACC0.050.0566.6762.560.020.01
TexasB120.050.0566.6762.210.020.01
Texas A&MSEC0.040.0575.0075.330.020.03
UABCUSA0.080.0582.6179.390.050.03
UMass LowellAE0.050.0534.7835.64-0.01-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.040.0528.5731.30-0.02-0.02
XavierBE0.040.0587.5081.860.030.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0314.2920.65-0.04-0.02
FIUCUSA0.050.0340.9145.29-0.01-0.00
SamfordSC0.050.0341.6742.61-0.01-0.00
ClemsonACC0.050.0358.3358.370.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0359.0959.370.010.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0336.3638.93-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0345.0046.11-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0347.8348.87-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0329.1733.74-0.02-0.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0382.6177.520.030.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0363.6462.150.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0336.3636.20-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0360.8757.160.010.00
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0375.0076.190.020.02
Green BayHorz0.050.0354.5556.010.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0354.1750.990.000.00
IndianaB100.050.0379.1774.060.030.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0371.4369.430.020.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0359.0959.650.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0333.3335.05-0.02-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.050.0356.5257.280.010.00
Weber St.BSky0.050.0365.0069.230.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0356.5257.020.010.00
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0347.6249.35-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.050.0379.1776.070.030.02
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0386.9686.650.040.02
DenverSum0.050.0354.1751.780.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.050.0369.5764.900.020.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0384.2181.660.030.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0350.0049.770.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.050.0333.3333.07-0.02-0.01
Penn St.B100.050.0350.0046.760.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0376.1972.310.020.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0379.1778.060.030.02
BaylorB120.050.0373.9168.480.020.01
BryantNEC0.050.0325.0026.40-0.02-0.01
RadfordBSth0.050.0350.0051.280.000.00
AuburnSEC0.040.0339.1335.44-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.040.0334.7840.89-0.01-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.040.0321.7422.74-0.02-0.01
DuquesneA100.000.0360.8756.360.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.040.0345.4547.54-0.00-0.00
George MasonA100.040.0333.3333.70-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.040.0341.6739.62-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.040.0340.0039.76-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.040.0370.8369.490.020.01
ManhattanMAAC0.040.0342.8642.01-0.01-0.00
MarquetteBE0.040.0364.0057.920.010.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0333.3330.27-0.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.040.0356.5262.820.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.040.0372.0069.150.020.01
RichmondA100.040.0356.5255.730.010.00
RiderMAAC0.040.0340.0042.12-0.01-0.00
Saint LouisA100.040.0334.7832.42-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.040.0372.7370.400.020.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0048.130.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.040.0376.1973.410.020.01
USC UpstateASun0.040.0322.7323.25-0.02-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.040.0381.8283.030.030.02
VanderbiltSEC0.040.0358.3359.960.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.040.0341.6739.91-0.01-0.01