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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Houston

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:87.0
Current RPI:87
Expected SOS:137
Current SOS:137
Current Record:22-9
Expected Record:22-9
Current Conf Record:12-7
Expected Conf Record:12-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-2
Current OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC RPI:111
Expected OOC SOS:308



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-987.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Houston.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-18Prairie View A&M (334.0)SWACH110-69W100%0.0
11-21Florida A&M (349.0)MEACH97-52W100%0.0
11-28Louisiana Monroe (95.0)SBH76-64W100%0.0
11-30UT Rio Grande Valley (338.0)WACH78-65W100%0.0
12-2Murray St. (169.0)OVCH93-78W100%0.0
12-8Rhode Island (119.0)A10A67-57L0%0.0
12-13LSU (94.0)SECH105-98W100%0.0
12-16North Carolina Central (310.0)MEACH73-65W100%0.0
12-19Eastern Illinois (271.0)OVCH81-65W100%0.0
12-21Grand Canyon (91.0)WACN69-78L0%0.0
12-22Wyoming (187.0)MWCN89-94W100%0.0
12-28Nicholls St. (313.0)SlndH76-49W100%0.0
12-30South Florida (230.0)AmerA67-73W100%0.0
1-2Temple (60.0)AmerA50-77W100%0.0
1-5Tulane (227.0)AmerH63-45W100%0.0
1-13Cincinnati (48.0)AmerA70-59L0%0.0
1-17Connecticut (32.0)AmerH57-69L0%0.0
1-19SMU (13.0)AmerA77-73L0%0.0
1-23South Florida (230.0)AmerH62-71L0%0.0
1-27Tulsa (58.0)AmerH81-66W100%0.0
1-30East Carolina (217.0)AmerA93-97W100%0.0
2-1SMU (13.0)AmerH71-68W100%0.0
2-7Tulsa (58.0)AmerA77-63L0%0.0
2-10Memphis (139.0)AmerH98-90W100%0.0
2-13UCF (219.0)AmerH82-58W100%0.0
2-17Tulane (227.0)AmerA69-82W100%0.0
2-21Temple (60.0)AmerH66-69L0%0.0
2-24UCF (219.0)AmerA61-88W100%0.0
2-28Connecticut (32.0)AmerA68-75W100%0.0
3-3Cincinnati (48.0)AmerH69-56W100%0.0
3-11Tulane (227.0)AmerN69-72L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Houston's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Houston's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Houston.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
HoustonAmer26.3026.3068.1568.159.559.55
TulaneAmer5.655.6535.4835.48-1.64-1.64
ConnecticutAmer4.134.1371.8871.881.811.81
South FloridaAmer4.064.0622.5822.58-2.23-2.23
TempleAmer4.054.0566.6766.671.351.35
UCFAmer4.044.0442.8642.86-0.58-0.58
TulsaAmer4.034.0365.5265.521.251.25
CincinnatiAmer4.004.0070.0070.001.601.60
SMUAmer3.993.9985.7185.712.852.85
MemphisAmer2.662.6657.5857.580.400.40
East CarolinaAmer2.522.5238.7138.71-0.57-0.57
Eastern IllinoisOVC1.721.7240.7440.74-0.32-0.32
North Carolina CentralMEAC1.701.7035.7135.71-0.49-0.49
Murray St.OVC1.701.7053.5753.570.120.12
Nicholls St.Slnd1.691.6926.6726.67-0.79-0.79
Prairie View A&MSWAC1.681.6823.3323.33-0.90-0.90
Grand CanyonWAC1.671.6778.5778.570.960.96
Florida A&MMEAC1.671.6723.0823.08-0.90-0.90
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC1.671.6719.2319.23-1.03-1.03
Louisiana MonroeSB1.611.6160.0060.000.320.32
LSUSEC1.611.6159.3859.380.300.30
Rhode IslandA101.611.6151.6151.610.050.05
WyomingMWC1.611.6141.3841.38-0.28-0.28
SouthernSWAC0.230.2361.2961.290.050.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.200.2040.0040.00-0.04-0.04
HamptonMEAC0.190.1966.6766.670.060.06
George WashingtonA100.180.1869.7069.700.070.07
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.170.1711.1111.11-0.13-0.13
Savannah St.MEAC0.160.1648.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.160.1687.1087.100.120.12
Alabama A&MSWAC0.150.1535.7135.71-0.04-0.04
South CarolinaSEC0.150.1574.1974.190.070.07
SeattleWAC0.150.1542.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.140.1454.8454.840.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.140.1472.4172.410.060.06
New Mexico St.WAC0.140.1467.7467.740.050.05
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.140.1421.4321.43-0.08-0.08
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.140.1432.2632.26-0.05-0.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.140.1416.6716.67-0.09-0.09
Norfolk St.MEAC0.140.1448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.130.1332.2632.26-0.05-0.05
MassachusettsA100.130.1343.7543.75-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.120.1229.0329.03-0.05-0.05
New OrleansSlnd0.120.1225.9325.93-0.06-0.06
North CarolinaACC0.120.1282.3582.350.080.08
Chicago St.WAC0.120.123.453.45-0.11-0.11
UMKCWAC0.120.1232.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Austin PeayOVC0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.110.1151.5251.520.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.110.1146.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Texas St.SB0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.110.1122.8622.86-0.06-0.06
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
TCUB120.100.1036.3636.36-0.03-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
McNeese St.Slnd0.100.1026.9226.92-0.05-0.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.1024.2424.24-0.05-0.05
UT ArlingtonSB0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
NebraskaB100.100.1047.0647.06-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
GonzagaWCC0.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
MichiganB100.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
New HampshireAE0.100.1058.6258.620.020.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.100.1014.2914.29-0.07-0.07
TroySB0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
ButlerBE0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
La SalleA100.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.1079.4179.410.060.06
DelawareCAA0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
KentuckySEC0.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.100.1082.1482.140.060.06
Southern MissCUSA0.090.0925.9325.93-0.05-0.05
HowardMEAC0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
North FloridaASun0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
Utah St.MWC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
ColoradoP120.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
UNLVMWC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
BrownIvy0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
DavidsonA100.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
StetsonASun0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.080.0820.8320.83-0.05-0.05
Louisiana TechCUSA0.080.0870.0070.000.030.03
IonaMAAC0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
WisconsinB100.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
MarylandB100.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
DrakeMVC0.070.0720.0020.00-0.04-0.04
Georgia TechACC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
LibertyBSth0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
MercerSC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Ohio St.B100.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
UTEPCUSA0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0629.1729.17-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0664.2964.290.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.060.0626.9226.92-0.03-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
DetroitHorz0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Miami OHMAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
StanfordP120.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
New MexicoMWC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0556.0056.000.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
OhioMAC0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
FordhamA100.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
PennIvy0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
UtahP120.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
VillanovaBE0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
AmericanPat0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
AlbanyAE0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
FloridaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
NJITASun0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Seton HallBE0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
TennesseeSEC0.050.0544.1244.12-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
MississippiSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
OklahomaB120.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0513.7913.79-0.03-0.03
FurmanSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
MaineAE0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
TexasB120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
SamfordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Green BayHorz0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
IndianaB100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0383.8783.870.020.02
Weber St.BSky0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
DenverSum0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
BaylorB120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
BryantNEC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
HawaiiBW0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
RadfordBSth0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
George MasonA100.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0362.8662.860.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
RichmondA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
RiderMAAC0.030.0339.3939.39-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
AuburnSEC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
MissouriSEC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00