live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Jan 25, 2015.


Houston

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:268.0
Current RPI:257
Expected SOS:159
Current SOS:179
Current Record:7-12
Expected Record:11-19
Current Conf Record:0-8
Expected Conf Record:3-15
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-6
Current OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:251
Expected OOC SOS:335



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-14176.70.03%
15-15202.30.39%
14-16214.91.80%
13-17231.86.81%
12-18247.217.17%
11-19263.024.99%
10-20277.926.54%
9-21291.216.11%
8-22301.85.26%
7-23309.90.89%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Houston.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Murray St. (74.0)OVCA74-77W100%0.0
11-22Morgan St. (325.8)MEACH72-57W100%0.0
11-25Harvard (87.0)IvyA84-63L0%0.0
12-4Texas Pan American (319.9)WACH72-58W100%0.0
12-6Abilene Christian (298.4)SlndH71-59W100%0.0
12-16Houston Baptist (283.9)SlndH83-76W100%0.0
12-17Arkansas Pine Bluff (311.5)SWACH56-61L0%0.0
12-20South Carolina St. (308.6)MEACH63-71L0%0.0
12-22Boise St. (67.8)MWCN73-75L0%0.0
12-23Texas Tech (189.5)B12N69-82W100%0.0
12-28Mississippi Valley St. (347.0)SWACH80-53W100%0.0
12-31Memphis (69.8)AmerA73-54L0%0.0
1-4Tulsa (43.7)AmerA72-54L0%0.0
1-6UCF (224.7)AmerH78-79L0%0.0
1-11Memphis (69.8)AmerH44-62L0%0.0
1-14East Carolina (259.4)AmerA66-61L0%0.0
1-17Tulane (157.9)AmerH65-68L0%0.0
1-21Cincinnati (27.6)AmerA67-54L0%0.0
1-24SMU (18.5)AmerA80-59L0%0.0
1-28Rice (267.6)CUSAH0-059%2.5
2-1Connecticut (63.0)AmerH0-021%-8.9
2-5Tulsa (43.7)AmerH0-020%-9.4
2-12SMU (18.5)AmerH0-011%-13.8
2-15UCF (224.7)AmerA0-037%-3.6
2-17South Florida (228.5)AmerA0-037%-3.7
2-21Cincinnati (27.6)AmerH0-014%-11.8
2-26Temple (67.6)AmerA0-013%-12.7
3-1South Florida (228.5)AmerH0-061%3.0
3-4Tulane (157.9)AmerA0-024%-7.9
3-8East Carolina (259.4)AmerH0-063%3.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Houston's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Houston's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Houston.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
HoustonAmer26.5326.3131.7630.00-9.68-10.53
MemphisAmer5.694.1658.8259.001.000.75
TulsaAmer3.004.1576.4770.971.591.74
TulaneAmer3.204.1461.1151.320.710.11
UCFAmer3.054.1441.1838.05-0.54-0.99
South FloridaAmer0.294.1331.5830.92-0.11-1.58
CincinnatiAmer2.994.1372.2271.531.331.78
East CarolinaAmer2.914.1231.2528.85-1.09-1.74
SMUAmer3.064.1277.7876.281.702.16
TempleAmer0.352.5765.0061.340.110.58
ConnecticutAmer0.222.5761.1159.730.050.50
Abilene ChristianSlnd2.911.8840.0034.11-0.58-0.60
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC2.851.7821.0530.50-1.65-0.69
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC2.771.7811.1115.77-2.15-1.22
Houston BaptistSlnd2.631.7641.6735.14-0.44-0.52
South Carolina St.MEAC2.781.7521.0527.45-1.61-0.79
Texas TechB122.761.7257.8942.520.44-0.26
RiceCUSA0.101.7026.6730.06-0.05-0.68
Boise St.MWC2.711.7064.7166.780.800.57
Morgan St.MEAC2.631.7021.0528.17-1.52-0.74
HarvardIvy2.631.6761.5463.930.610.46
Murray St.OVC2.631.6783.3383.731.751.12
Texas Pan AmericanWAC2.631.6729.4129.22-1.08-0.69
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.240.2723.5344.31-0.13-0.03
LamarSlnd0.240.2540.0038.36-0.05-0.06
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.2225.0038.10-0.03-0.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.270.2222.2237.82-0.15-0.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.340.1970.5977.560.140.11
Incarnate WordSlnd0.160.1954.5565.340.010.06
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.240.1842.8642.64-0.03-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.280.1666.6758.660.090.03
SouthernSWAC0.200.1633.3345.66-0.07-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.140.1642.1156.85-0.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.1668.7575.250.030.08
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.070.1650.0043.330.00-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.220.1581.2584.490.140.11
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.200.1422.2232.05-0.11-0.05
Georgia SouthernSB0.140.1471.4369.460.060.06
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.290.1461.1158.490.060.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.1417.6526.25-0.04-0.07
Fresno St.MWC0.140.1444.4437.95-0.02-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.140.1461.9060.160.030.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.210.1461.5465.650.050.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.200.1420.0029.58-0.12-0.06
Alcorn St.SWAC0.200.1417.6523.38-0.13-0.07
Grand CanyonWAC0.250.1247.3750.46-0.010.00
UTSACUSA0.150.1243.7543.05-0.02-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.140.1215.7918.67-0.10-0.07
North TexasCUSA0.140.1235.2933.29-0.04-0.04
DetroitHorz0.070.1242.1145.86-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.070.1250.0044.180.00-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.140.1157.8956.130.020.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.210.110.004.38-0.21-0.10
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.140.1157.8956.200.020.01
USC UpstateASun0.210.1161.1162.880.050.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.130.1152.3857.310.010.02
TexasB120.070.1173.6868.850.030.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.130.1147.0649.55-0.01-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.115.5616.70-0.00-0.07
GonzagaWCC0.070.1195.0094.590.060.10
OklahomaB120.070.1163.1664.400.020.03
Oral RobertsSum0.210.1147.3749.59-0.01-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.070.1173.6875.850.030.06
Wichita St.MVC0.210.1189.4787.900.170.08
Air ForceMWC0.200.1135.2936.78-0.06-0.03
BaylorB120.140.1177.7871.550.080.05
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.110.007.09-0.00-0.09
UC RiversideBW0.250.0938.8936.59-0.06-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0953.3356.260.000.01
YaleIvy0.000.0964.7164.090.000.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.250.0935.7146.79-0.07-0.01
PennIvy0.000.0933.3333.96-0.00-0.03
CreightonBE0.150.0942.8638.66-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.140.0926.3236.35-0.07-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.140.0942.1145.74-0.02-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.0947.3749.78-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.140.0973.6865.200.060.03
WyomingMWC0.140.0983.3376.420.090.05
Central ConnecticutNEC0.080.0914.2915.35-0.06-0.06
AuburnSEC0.140.0850.0040.140.00-0.02
IndianaB100.140.0875.0068.440.070.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.140.0844.4434.87-0.02-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.140.0833.3334.72-0.05-0.03
UNLVMWC0.070.0852.6354.330.000.01
HamptonMEAC0.070.0842.1141.46-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.130.0855.0061.950.010.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.0835.0031.73-0.02-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.140.0835.0043.96-0.04-0.01
XavierBE0.070.0865.0063.120.020.02
HawaiiBW0.140.0863.1657.380.040.01
Southern UtahBSky0.200.0823.5327.69-0.11-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.140.0815.7926.56-0.09-0.04
West VirginiaB120.070.0884.2174.910.050.04
Iowa St.B120.140.0877.7868.060.080.03
KansasB120.070.0884.2175.980.050.04
TCUB120.140.0873.6861.610.060.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.180.060.003.87-0.18-0.06
McNeese St.Slnd0.180.0623.0839.13-0.10-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.100.0616.6735.39-0.07-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.180.0615.3818.24-0.13-0.04
BrownIvy0.000.0641.1838.10-0.00-0.02
CornellIvy0.000.0647.0648.17-0.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.190.0650.0050.900.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0643.7542.96-0.00-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.170.0640.0041.97-0.03-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0642.1151.50-0.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.070.065.5611.55-0.06-0.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0650.0062.020.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0678.9579.450.000.04
SeattleWAC0.070.0647.0649.60-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.000.0631.5838.42-0.00-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.070.0635.2938.26-0.02-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0663.1668.480.000.02
NorthwesternB100.170.0650.0043.390.00-0.01
VirginiaACC0.160.06100.0093.850.160.05
DuquesneA100.160.0629.4127.44-0.06-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.0670.5967.500.030.02
BryantNEC0.090.0650.0049.210.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0627.7828.21-0.00-0.03
DavidsonA100.070.0676.4776.520.040.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0635.2934.92-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0638.8940.51-0.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.070.0611.7619.32-0.06-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0658.8257.920.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0652.9458.930.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0673.6872.640.000.03
Oregon St.P120.070.0672.2262.200.030.01
ArkansasSEC0.070.0678.9572.070.040.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.070.0633.3335.62-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.130.0668.7569.130.050.02
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0689.4783.130.060.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.070.0670.5973.720.030.03
Green BayHorz0.080.0678.9577.950.040.03
James MadisonCAA0.080.0657.1458.210.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0647.0654.41-0.000.01
MichiganB100.070.0657.8950.450.010.00
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0652.3854.030.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.070.0665.0063.000.020.01
North CarolinaACC0.080.0680.0076.050.050.03
San Jose St.MWC0.070.060.002.06-0.07-0.06
St. John'sBE0.070.0666.6760.490.020.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.070.0647.0654.42-0.000.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.080.0637.5045.85-0.02-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0616.6722.12-0.05-0.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0655.5654.930.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.070.0655.5653.190.010.00
Wake ForestACC0.070.0645.0040.40-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0628.5733.12-0.03-0.02
HowardMEAC0.000.0637.5042.49-0.00-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.140.0678.9574.020.080.03
ValparaisoHorz0.140.0678.9578.220.080.03
AlabamaSEC0.000.0666.6760.600.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0675.0070.930.000.02
HofstraCAA0.000.0666.6770.400.000.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0621.0521.33-0.00-0.03
Seton HallBE0.000.0668.4260.950.000.01
DukeACC0.000.0589.4783.700.000.04
TowsonCAA0.070.0540.0037.70-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.070.0573.6869.350.030.02
BradleyMVC0.140.0530.0031.32-0.06-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.140.0547.3744.59-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.070.0560.0047.770.01-0.00
MississippiSEC0.070.0563.1663.590.020.01
NebraskaB100.070.0563.1651.440.020.00
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0550.0055.600.000.01
Stony BrookAE0.070.0560.0065.770.010.02
VCUA100.070.0584.2180.700.050.03
WagnerNEC0.070.0527.7832.12-0.03-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.140.0531.2527.91-0.05-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.100.0361.1159.760.020.01
Arizona St.P120.090.0350.0052.260.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0350.0042.920.00-0.00
Boston UniversityPat0.090.0338.8942.70-0.02-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.090.0341.1842.91-0.02-0.00
MassachusettsA100.090.0352.6353.060.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.090.0366.6767.030.030.01
VermontAE0.090.0352.6358.400.000.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0343.7540.69-0.00-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.070.0372.2264.370.030.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0316.6723.19-0.00-0.02
MercerSC0.000.0347.3751.57-0.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0338.8940.92-0.02-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.070.0325.0032.98-0.04-0.01
Saint LouisA100.070.0344.4437.38-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0325.0022.90-0.00-0.02
UtahP120.070.0383.3383.660.050.02
Washington St.P120.000.0347.3738.18-0.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0358.8262.380.000.01
BelmontOVC0.070.0363.1662.990.020.01
DrakeMVC0.070.0315.7917.73-0.05-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.070.0373.6869.170.030.01
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0357.8959.510.010.01
PortlandWCC0.070.0352.6349.030.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.080.0364.7161.600.020.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0340.0037.58-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.035.2610.60-0.06-0.02
FordhamA100.070.0325.0024.54-0.03-0.01
IdahoBSky0.070.0337.5043.69-0.02-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.070.0325.0025.42-0.04-0.01
MontanaBSky0.070.0350.0053.220.000.00
NevadaMWC0.000.0325.0026.11-0.00-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.070.0345.0045.95-0.01-0.00
WisconsinB100.070.0390.0087.200.060.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.070.0325.0028.09-0.03-0.01
DaytonA100.000.0384.2179.090.000.02
ElonCAA0.070.0347.3744.12-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0352.6353.800.000.00
LibertyBSth0.070.0311.7617.55-0.05-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0347.3747.23-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.070.0352.6346.660.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0390.0084.490.050.02
Penn St.B100.070.0365.0051.820.020.00
RiderMAAC0.070.0361.9062.370.020.01
UC IrvineBW0.070.0352.9457.380.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.070.0342.1135.41-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.0357.8959.360.000.01
DelawareCAA0.000.0321.0522.39-0.00-0.01
La SalleA100.000.0352.6352.940.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0336.8438.57-0.00-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.070.0336.8433.28-0.02-0.01
LSUSEC0.070.0378.9569.090.040.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0343.7538.89-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0344.4439.84-0.00-0.01
VillanovaBE0.000.0390.0084.390.000.02
AkronMAC0.070.0366.6762.700.020.01
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0378.5774.830.040.01
High PointBSth0.070.0370.5968.460.030.01
Michigan St.B100.070.0365.0063.900.020.01
OhioMAC0.070.0341.1838.63-0.01-0.01