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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.


Vanderbilt

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:120.0
Current RPI:120
Expected SOS:59
Current SOS:59
Current Record:16-17
Expected Record:16-17
Current Conf Record:10-11
Expected Conf Record:10-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-9
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-1
Current OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:151
Expected OOC SOS:70



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-17120.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Vanderbilt.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Nicholls St. (296.0)SlndH80-65W100%0.0
11-16Oregon (48.0)P12A74-48L0%0.0
11-22Davidson (61.0)SCN75-62L0%0.0
11-23Marist (262.0)MAACN33-50L0%0.0
11-25Texas El Paso (95.0)CUSAN49-73W100%0.0
12-1Villanova (52.0)BEH52-62L0%0.0
12-6Xavier (87.0)A10A64-66W100%0.0
12-15Alabama A&M (329.0)SWACH71-46W100%0.0
12-17Cornell (248.0)IvyH66-55W100%0.0
12-21Middle Tennessee (28.0)SBN56-52L0%0.0
12-29Butler (22.0)A10H49-68L0%0.0
1-2William & Mary (271.0)CAAH64-50W100%0.0
1-10Kentucky (56.0)SECH58-60L0%0.0
1-12Arkansas (89.0)SECA56-33L0%0.0
1-15Mississippi (47.0)SECH79-89L0%0.0
1-19South Carolina (222.0)SECA51-58W100%0.0
1-23Auburn (252.0)SECH73-61W100%0.0
1-26Missouri (36.0)SECA81-59L0%0.0
1-29Tennessee (59.0)SECA58-57L0%0.0
2-2Alabama (60.0)SECH54-58L0%0.0
2-6Louisiana St. (86.0)SECA57-56L0%0.0
2-9Arkansas (89.0)SECH67-49W100%0.0
2-13Tennessee (59.0)SECH46-58L0%0.0
2-16Texas A&M (102.0)SECH63-56W100%0.0
2-20Kentucky (56.0)SECA74-70L0%0.0
2-23Mississippi St. (232.0)SECA31-72W100%0.0
2-27Georgia (140.0)SECH63-62W100%0.0
3-2Auburn (252.0)SECA55-62W100%0.0
3-6Florida (7.0)SECA66-40L0%0.0
3-9South Carolina (222.0)SECH74-64W100%0.0
3-14Arkansas (89.0)SECH75-72W100%0.0
3-15Kentucky (56.0)SECH64-48W100%0.0
3-16Mississippi (47.0)SECH52-64L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Vanderbilt's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Vanderbilt's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Vanderbilt.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
VanderbiltSEC26.2526.2543.7143.71-3.30-3.30
ArkansasSEC5.115.1162.0762.071.231.23
KentuckySEC5.115.1165.5265.521.591.59
MississippiSEC3.713.7175.0075.001.861.86
TennesseeSEC3.713.7160.0060.000.740.74
AuburnSEC3.713.7130.0030.00-1.48-1.48
South CarolinaSEC3.593.5946.6746.67-0.24-0.24
FloridaSEC2.312.3178.1278.121.301.30
Texas A&MSEC2.292.2956.2556.250.290.29
MissouriSEC2.292.2968.7568.750.860.86
Mississippi St.SEC2.272.2732.2632.26-0.80-0.80
AlabamaSEC2.242.2461.2961.290.510.51
GeorgiaSEC2.172.1748.3948.39-0.07-0.07
Louisiana St.SEC2.172.1760.0060.000.430.43
Alabama A&MSWAC1.611.6132.1432.14-0.57-0.57
XavierA101.611.6156.6756.670.210.21
Middle TennesseeSB1.581.5884.3884.381.091.09
ButlerA101.561.5675.0075.000.780.78
OregonP121.541.5475.7675.760.790.79
VillanovaBE1.541.5458.0658.060.250.25
Nicholls St.Slnd1.541.5431.0331.03-0.58-0.58
Texas El PasoCUSA1.541.5458.0658.060.250.25
CornellIvy1.521.5241.3841.38-0.26-0.26
DavidsonSC1.521.5277.4277.420.830.83
MaristMAAC1.521.5230.0030.00-0.61-0.61
William & MaryCAA1.521.5242.8642.86-0.22-0.22
Alcorn St.SWAC0.170.1728.1228.12-0.07-0.07
Northwestern St.Slnd0.170.1770.3770.370.070.07
DaytonA100.170.1754.8454.840.020.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.140.1439.2939.29-0.03-0.03
College of CharlestonSC0.140.1472.7372.730.060.06
Appalachian St.SC0.140.1444.8344.83-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleBE0.140.1485.2985.290.100.10
Arkansas Little RockSB0.140.1451.6151.610.000.00
GramblingSWAC0.130.130.000.00-0.13-0.13
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.120.1217.8617.86-0.08-0.08
DukeACC0.120.1284.3884.380.080.08
PresbyterianBSth0.120.1217.2417.24-0.08-0.08
WisconsinB100.120.1267.6567.650.040.04
Arizona St.P120.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
MarshallCUSA0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
SyracuseBE0.120.1274.2974.290.060.06
MarquetteBE0.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
OklahomaB120.120.1264.5264.520.030.03
St. LouisA100.120.1281.8281.820.070.07
LipscombASun0.120.1237.9337.93-0.03-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.100.1068.9768.970.040.04
ColumbiaIvy0.100.1038.4638.46-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
RichmondA100.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
New Orleansind0.100.1018.1818.18-0.06-0.06
PennsylvaniaIvy0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
LongwoodBSth0.100.1019.3519.35-0.06-0.06
TulaneCUSA0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
ClemsonACC0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
MemphisCUSA0.100.1088.2488.240.070.07
Robert MorrisNEC0.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
MassachusettsA100.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.090.0927.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.090.0920.6920.69-0.06-0.06
FurmanSC0.090.0917.2417.24-0.06-0.06
Notre DameBE0.090.0973.5373.530.040.04
SamfordSC0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
St. John'sBE0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiBE0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
La SalleA100.090.0970.0070.000.040.04
Virginia CommonwealthA100.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
ElonSC0.090.0963.3363.330.030.03
HoustonCUSA0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
Houston BaptistGWC0.090.0939.2939.29-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.090.0963.6463.640.030.03
TroySB0.090.0936.3636.36-0.03-0.03
FordhamA100.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
UCLAP120.090.0973.5373.530.040.04
James MadisonCAA0.080.0858.8258.820.010.01
NC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
DrexelCAA0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.0739.2939.29-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.070.079.689.68-0.06-0.06
Oral RobertsSlnd0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
St. Peter'sMAAC0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
MercerASun0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0785.1985.190.050.05
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.070.0717.8617.86-0.05-0.05
YaleIvy0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
BucknellPat0.070.0784.3884.380.050.05
St. BonaventureA100.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
WoffordSC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Texas San AntonioWAC0.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
CharlotteA100.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
George WashingtonA100.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
TempleA100.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
BaylorB120.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.070.0780.6580.650.040.04
Georgia SouthernSC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
Long IslandNEC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
MarylandACC0.070.0764.7164.710.020.02
MichiganB100.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
OaklandSum0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
South FloridaBE0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Southern MississippiCUSA0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0720.0020.00-0.04-0.04
Florida St.ACC0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0714.2914.29-0.05-0.05
Central FloridaCUSA0.070.0762.0762.070.020.02
Florida AtlanticSB0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
Florida InternationalSB0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.ASun0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Oregon St.P120.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
RutgersBE0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Washington St.P120.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
George MasonCAA0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Georgia St.CAA0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Old DominionCAA0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
TowsonCAA0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.050.0544.4444.44-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
HarvardIvy0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.050.0559.2659.260.010.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
ColgatePat0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Loyola MDMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0557.6957.690.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
DuquesneA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0510.0010.00-0.04-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.050.0565.5265.520.010.01
NC AshevilleBSth0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
PittsburghBE0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
RiceCUSA0.050.0513.7913.79-0.03-0.03
Southern MethodistCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
TulsaCUSA0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
VirginiaACC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
WinthropBSth0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0593.7593.750.040.04
IndianaB100.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
North CarolinaACC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
UABCUSA0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Southern CaliforniaP120.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0514.8114.81-0.03-0.03
North TexasSB0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Western KentuckySB0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
CaliforniaP120.040.0464.5264.520.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.040.0442.3142.31-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.040.0465.6265.620.010.01
HawaiiBW0.040.0453.3353.330.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.040.0454.8454.840.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.040.0431.2531.25-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.040.0444.8344.83-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Iowa St.B120.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
Boston UniversityAE0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
Michigan St.B100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
UC DavisBW0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Utah St.WAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.020.0265.5265.520.010.01
DrakeMVC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
MaineAE0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
PacificBW0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Virginia Military InstBSth0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
ConnecticutBE0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.020.0253.8553.850.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
IdahoWAC0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
MonmouthNEC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.020.0279.3179.310.010.01
NC GreensboroSC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.020.0248.0048.00-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
TexasB120.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Texas TechB120.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
AkronMAC0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
IUPUISum0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Louisiana TechWAC0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
NorthwesternB100.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.020.0228.0028.00-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.020.0217.2417.24-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.020.0223.0823.08-0.01-0.01