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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Vanderbilt

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:44.0
Current RPI:44
Expected SOS:1
Current SOS:1
Current Record:19-15
Expected Record:19-15
Current Conf Record:12-9
Expected Conf Record:12-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:2-1
Current OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:50
Expected OOC SOS:1



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1544.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Vanderbilt.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Marquette (60.0)BEN71-95L0%0.0
11-15Belmont (61.0)OVCH80-66W100%0.0
11-18Norfolk St. (254.0)MEACH75-52W100%0.0
11-21Bucknell (63.0)PatH72-75L0%0.0
11-24Butler (15.0)BEN66-76L0%0.0
11-25Santa Clara (126.0)WCCN66-76W100%0.0
11-29Tennessee St. (162.0)OVCH83-59W100%0.0
12-3Minnesota (20.0)B10N56-52L0%0.0
12-6High Point (236.0)BSthH90-63W100%0.0
12-8Middle Tennessee (34.0)CUSAA71-48L0%0.0
12-17Chattanooga (139.0)SCH76-74W100%0.0
12-21Dayton (30.0)A10A68-63L0%0.0
12-29LSU (193.0)SECA89-96W100%0.0
1-4Auburn (113.0)SECH80-61W100%0.0
1-7Alabama (78.0)SECA59-56L0%0.0
1-10Kentucky (3.0)SECH81-87L0%0.0
1-14Tennessee (82.0)SECH75-87L0%0.0
1-17Georgia (52.0)SECA76-68L0%0.0
1-21Florida (10.0)SECA66-68W100%0.0
1-24Arkansas (28.0)SECH70-71L0%0.0
1-28Iowa St. (21.0)B12H84-78W100%0.0
1-31Texas A&M (92.0)SECA54-68W100%0.0
2-4Mississippi (77.0)SECH74-81L0%0.0
2-7Arkansas (28.0)SECA59-72W100%0.0
2-11Missouri (257.0)SECA72-52L0%0.0
2-16Texas A&M (92.0)SECH72-67W100%0.0
2-18South Carolina (42.0)SECH71-62W100%0.0
2-22Tennessee (82.0)SECA56-67W100%0.0
2-25Mississippi St. (150.0)SECH77-48W100%0.0
2-28Kentucky (3.0)SECA73-67L0%0.0
3-4Florida (10.0)SECH73-71W100%0.0
3-9Texas A&M (92.0)SECH66-41W100%0.0
3-10Florida (10.0)SECH72-62W100%0.0
3-11Arkansas (28.0)SECH62-76L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Vanderbilt's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Vanderbilt's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Vanderbilt.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
VanderbiltSEC26.2926.2951.3051.300.680.68
ArkansasSEC5.105.1074.1974.192.472.47
FloridaSEC5.005.0082.7682.763.283.28
Texas A&MSEC4.984.9857.1457.140.710.71
KentuckySEC3.703.7084.3884.382.542.54
TennesseeSEC3.533.5348.2848.28-0.12-0.12
GeorgiaSEC2.222.2254.8454.840.220.22
MississippiSEC2.182.1859.3859.380.410.41
MissouriSEC2.182.1822.5822.58-1.19-1.19
AlabamaSEC2.162.1656.2556.250.270.27
LSUSEC2.152.1533.3333.33-0.72-0.72
Mississippi St.SEC2.142.1451.6151.610.070.07
South CarolinaSEC2.132.1370.0070.000.850.85
AuburnSEC2.062.0658.0658.060.330.33
BelmontOVC1.611.6180.7780.770.990.99
Tennessee St.OVC1.571.5755.5655.560.170.17
ButlerBE1.561.5673.3373.330.730.73
Middle TennesseeCUSA1.551.5587.5087.501.161.16
MarquetteBE1.541.5460.0060.000.310.31
Norfolk St.MEAC1.541.5450.0050.000.000.00
MinnesotaB101.541.5471.8871.880.670.67
BucknellPat1.521.5275.7675.760.780.78
ChattanoogaSC1.521.5260.7160.710.330.33
Santa ClaraWCC1.501.5051.6151.610.050.05
DaytonA101.491.4975.8675.860.770.77
High PointBSth1.471.4744.4444.44-0.16-0.16
Iowa St.B121.471.4771.8871.880.640.64
Seton HallBE0.210.2165.6265.620.070.07
GonzagaWCC0.210.2196.9796.970.200.20
North FloridaASun0.180.1836.6736.67-0.05-0.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.170.1731.0331.03-0.06-0.06
Jacksonville St.OVC0.160.1656.2556.250.020.02
TexasB120.150.1533.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.150.1533.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.150.1534.4834.48-0.05-0.05
LipscombASun0.150.1556.6756.670.020.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.150.1578.1278.120.080.08
Austin PeayOVC0.140.1432.1432.14-0.05-0.05
MercerSC0.140.1443.3343.33-0.02-0.02
XavierBE0.140.1461.7661.760.030.03
ArizonaP120.140.1488.2488.240.110.11
West VirginiaB120.140.1476.4776.470.070.07
OklahomaB120.140.1435.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Oklahoma St.B120.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.130.1355.8855.880.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.130.1342.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.120.1268.7568.750.040.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
St. BonaventureA100.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
CreightonBE0.120.1272.7372.730.050.05
St. John'sBE0.120.1242.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.120.1236.0036.00-0.03-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
WisconsinB100.120.1273.5373.530.050.05
AmericanPat0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
UCLAP120.110.1187.8887.880.090.09
KansasB120.110.1187.5087.500.080.08
Michigan St.B100.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
PresbyterianBSth0.100.1010.7110.71-0.08-0.08
WoffordSC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.100.1032.1432.14-0.03-0.03
ClemsonACC0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
DukeACC0.100.1077.1477.140.050.05
VCUA100.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
DePaulBE0.090.0928.1228.12-0.04-0.04
GeorgetownBE0.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
St. Francis PANEC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.090.0991.1891.180.080.08
Western KentuckyCUSA0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.090.0973.3373.330.040.04
DuquesneA100.090.0931.2531.25-0.03-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.090.0955.8855.880.010.01
Kansas St.B120.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
MichiganB100.090.0968.5768.570.030.03
Texas TechB120.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.090.0941.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.090.0975.7675.760.050.05
Miami FLACC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
NavyPat0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.090.0960.7160.710.020.02
TCUB120.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
HoustonAmer0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
ValparaisoHorz0.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
LehighPat0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
WinthropBSth0.080.0880.0080.000.050.05
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.080.0844.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.080.0872.7372.730.030.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.080.0870.0070.000.030.03
VMISC0.080.0814.2914.29-0.05-0.05
FurmanSC0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
The CitadelSC0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
DavidsonA100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Saint LouisA100.070.0736.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.070.0735.7135.71-0.02-0.02
DenverSum0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
HowardMEAC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.070.0760.7160.710.020.02
USCP120.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.070.0767.6567.650.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
PortlandWCC0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0787.5087.500.050.05
Georgia TechACC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
OregonP120.070.0784.8584.850.050.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0740.7440.74-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
PurdueB100.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0776.6776.670.040.04
Little RockSB0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.070.0717.2417.24-0.04-0.04
Georgia St.SB0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
UABCUSA0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.070.0777.4277.420.040.04
ArmyPat0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
CampbellBSth0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
RadfordBSth0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
UC DavisBW0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.050.0584.8584.850.030.03
MassachusettsA100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
RichmondA100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
MemphisAmer0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
BYUWCC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
IllinoisB100.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.040.0428.5728.57-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.040.0456.2556.250.010.01
MarylandB100.040.0474.1974.190.020.02
Ohio St.B100.040.0453.1253.120.000.00
Penn St.B100.040.0445.4545.45-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.040.0440.0040.00-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
UTSACUSA0.040.0438.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.040.0445.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Boston UniversityPat0.040.0454.8454.840.000.00
ColgatePat0.040.0429.0329.03-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.040.0445.1645.16-0.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.040.0427.5927.59-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.040.0475.0075.000.020.02
Loyola MDPat0.040.0446.6746.67-0.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0329.4129.41-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
IUPUISum0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.020.0230.3030.30-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.023.333.33-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
PittsburghACC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
UtahP120.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.020.026.906.90-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
Oregon St.P120.020.0212.9012.90-0.02-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.020.0219.3519.35-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
UMKCWAC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
BradleyMVC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
NJITASun0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
RutgersB100.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
FairfieldMAAC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.020.0278.5778.570.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00