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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.


Vanderbilt

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:31.5
Current RPI:28
Expected SOS:5
Current SOS:6
Current Record:16-7
Expected Record:20-11
Current Conf Record:5-3
Expected Conf Record:9-7
Probability of Auto Bid:5.39%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:11-4
Expected OOC Record:11-4
Expected OOC RPI:31
Expected OOC SOS:10



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-710.80.30%
23-815.03.56%
22-920.514.93%
21-1026.828.67%
20-1133.629.81%
19-1241.616.67%
18-1351.75.19%
17-1463.10.83%
16-1574.30.03%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Vanderbilt.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Oregon (86.8)P12H78-64W100%0.0
11-13Cleveland St. (52.0)HorzH58-71L0%0.0
11-15Bucknell (71.1)PatH80-68W100%0.0
11-19North Carolina St. (62.9)ACCN79-86W100%0.0
11-21Oregon St. (114.4)P12N62-64W100%0.0
11-25Monmouth (275.8)NECH95-73W100%0.0
11-28Xavier (55.8)A10H70-82L0%0.0
12-2Louisville (25.3)BEA62-60L0%0.0
12-7Davidson (64.0)SCA83-87W100%0.0
12-17Indiana St. (133.0)MVCH55-61L0%0.0
12-19Longwood (311.5)indH99-71W100%0.0
12-21Lafayette (210.2)PatH89-58W100%0.0
12-29Marquette (15.5)BEA57-74W100%0.0
1-2Miami OH (210.4)MACH69-62W100%0.0
1-7Auburn (147.6)SECH65-35W100%0.0
1-10South Carolina (172.1)SECA57-67W100%0.0
1-14Georgia (132.0)SECH77-66W100%0.0
1-19Alabama (30.4)SECA59-69W100%0.0
1-21Mississippi St. (41.7)SECH77-78L0%0.0
1-24Tennessee (136.4)SECH65-47W100%0.0
1-28Middle Tennessee (49.6)SBH84-77W100%0.0
1-31Arkansas (65.9)SECA82-74L0%0.0
2-4Florida (14.9)SECA73-65L0%0.0
2-8Louisiana St. (85.2)SECH0-077%8.2
2-11Kentucky (4.3)SECH0-028%-6.4
2-16Mississippi (70.0)SECA0-061%3.1
2-19Georgia (132.0)SECA0-071%5.9
2-22South Carolina (172.1)SECH0-088%13.0
2-25Kentucky (4.3)SECA0-011%-13.2
2-28Florida (14.9)SECH0-045%-1.3
3-3Tennessee (136.4)SECA0-060%2.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Vanderbilt's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Vanderbilt's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Vanderbilt.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
VanderbiltSEC26.1126.1064.7662.257.716.40
KentuckySEC0.443.8495.8393.410.403.33
GeorgiaSEC2.463.8447.6243.09-0.12-0.53
FloridaSEC2.423.8181.8277.651.542.11
South CarolinaSEC2.373.8142.8641.98-0.34-0.61
TennesseeSEC2.413.8147.6246.42-0.11-0.27
MississippiSEC0.432.2063.6457.320.120.32
Louisiana St.SEC0.332.1759.0958.470.060.37
ArkansasSEC2.322.1568.1863.990.840.60
Mississippi St.SEC2.412.1577.2771.411.320.92
AlabamaSEC2.372.1471.4371.481.010.92
AuburnSEC2.422.1459.0950.490.440.02
XavierA102.281.7063.6462.490.620.42
LafayettePat2.261.6945.4544.48-0.21-0.19
MarquetteBE2.221.6982.6178.521.450.97
LouisvilleBE2.221.6977.2771.741.210.74
BucknellPat2.221.6777.2777.681.210.92
OregonP122.221.6772.7366.761.010.56
Oregon St.P122.221.6766.6765.410.740.51
MonmouthNEC2.221.6429.1729.87-0.93-0.66
Miami OHMAC2.221.6431.5835.41-0.82-0.48
Middle TennesseeSB2.171.6486.9687.791.611.24
Cleveland St.Horz2.171.6180.9579.761.350.96
DavidsonSC2.171.6180.0079.611.300.96
Indiana St.MVC2.171.6154.5552.590.200.08
Longwoodind2.171.6131.5828.92-0.80-0.68
North Carolina St.ACC2.171.6173.9166.571.040.53
ChattanoogaSC0.210.1927.2735.02-0.09-0.06
Louisiana MonroeSB0.190.198.708.99-0.16-0.16
CincinnatiBE0.150.1969.5765.470.060.06
SyracuseBE0.190.1895.8392.010.170.15
North CarolinaACC0.140.1886.9683.160.100.12
NavyPat0.240.179.5213.19-0.19-0.12
WoffordSC0.150.1759.0957.930.030.03
CaliforniaP120.150.1675.0074.610.070.08
ColoradoP120.150.1666.6762.650.050.04
Southern CaliforniaP120.200.1625.0025.13-0.10-0.08
MemphisCUSA0.190.1669.5771.510.080.07
Georgia TechACC0.140.1639.1342.12-0.03-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.140.1650.0058.160.000.03
RutgersBE0.140.1650.0046.810.00-0.01
ArmyPat0.200.1440.9141.72-0.04-0.02
AkronMAC0.200.1468.1867.910.070.05
College of CharlestonSC0.150.1458.3359.980.020.03
DaytonA100.150.1460.8760.960.030.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.150.148.7012.13-0.12-0.10
StanfordP120.140.1469.5768.290.060.05
WashingtonP120.140.1469.5766.540.060.04
Ohio St.B100.150.1386.9685.460.110.10
Wright St.Horz0.150.1341.6740.61-0.03-0.03
ButlerHorz0.140.1350.0050.800.000.00
ArizonaP120.190.1366.6768.550.060.05
ConnecticutBE0.100.1368.1863.990.040.04
PittsburghBE0.140.1360.8758.160.030.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.100.1110.0014.93-0.08-0.08
Bowling GreenMAC0.100.1147.6248.82-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.150.1147.6248.83-0.01-0.00
The CitadelSC0.100.119.5211.44-0.08-0.09
Wichita St.MVC0.140.1182.6180.420.090.07
AmericanPat0.090.1165.2263.790.030.03
ColgatePat0.090.1130.4329.50-0.04-0.05
LehighPat0.090.1173.9174.910.050.06
Holy CrossPat0.090.1140.9142.05-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.190.1128.5730.17-0.08-0.04
NC GreensboroSC0.150.1134.7833.46-0.04-0.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.090.1156.5253.100.010.01
VirginiaACC0.150.1181.8276.800.090.06
SamfordSC0.050.1133.3335.26-0.02-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.140.1133.3335.97-0.05-0.03
UtahP120.100.1118.1815.01-0.06-0.08
Washington St.P120.100.1150.0048.170.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.190.1165.2263.740.060.03
CharlotteA100.150.1150.0049.450.00-0.00
DukeACC0.100.1186.3683.090.070.07
ElonSC0.090.1150.0047.590.00-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.150.1134.7837.24-0.04-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.140.1152.3852.870.010.01
Western KentuckySB0.050.1134.7834.48-0.01-0.03
St. Francis PANEC0.180.1121.7422.76-0.10-0.06
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.140.1135.0039.38-0.04-0.02
Penn St.B100.050.1141.6738.67-0.01-0.02
DetroitHorz0.150.1147.8349.03-0.01-0.00
OaklandSum0.150.1148.0050.21-0.010.00
North FloridaASun0.140.1145.8346.68-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.140.1156.5250.270.020.00
Notre DameBE0.140.1165.2262.650.040.03
South FloridaBE0.140.1154.5548.600.01-0.00
DePaulBE0.050.1050.0042.830.00-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.140.1080.9577.380.090.06
Florida St.ACC0.090.1072.7371.710.040.05
JacksonvilleASun0.140.1017.3922.00-0.09-0.06
St. John'sBE0.090.1043.4840.28-0.01-0.02
VillanovaBE0.180.1045.4546.08-0.02-0.01
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.100.0933.3338.38-0.03-0.02
Georgia SouthernSC0.100.0840.0041.30-0.02-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.100.0871.4369.050.040.03
BelmontASun0.140.0869.5773.280.060.04
EvansvilleMVC0.150.0845.4544.02-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.100.0881.8277.200.060.05
RichmondA100.100.0850.0048.490.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.100.0840.9143.66-0.02-0.01
DrakeMVC0.090.0852.1750.090.000.00
La SalleA100.140.0870.8368.820.060.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.090.0834.7832.06-0.03-0.03
UCLAP120.140.0854.5556.790.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.150.0850.0051.730.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.0868.1869.680.030.03
Florida AtlanticSB0.090.0836.3639.72-0.03-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.140.0847.3752.87-0.010.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.100.0830.0030.06-0.04-0.03
KansasB120.050.0878.2678.390.030.05
North TexasSB0.090.0850.0050.010.000.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0843.4844.25-0.00-0.01
Long IslandNEC0.090.0870.8371.050.040.03
Loyola MDMAAC0.050.0877.2773.450.030.04
MaristMAAC0.050.0834.7833.43-0.01-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.090.0856.5255.950.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.140.084.359.66-0.13-0.06
UABCUSA0.090.0840.9139.82-0.02-0.02
WagnerNEC0.090.0882.6184.570.060.06
ClemsonACC0.050.0850.0048.360.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.0835.2939.85-0.03-0.02
GramblingSWAC0.050.0815.0015.73-0.03-0.05
Long Beach St.BW0.140.0871.4373.350.060.04
NC AshevilleBSth0.090.0868.1867.640.030.03
South Carolina UpstateASun0.100.0854.5556.090.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.100.0827.7829.58-0.04-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.140.0860.0059.060.030.01
WinthropBSth0.090.0834.7834.61-0.03-0.02
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.090.0856.5257.720.010.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0865.0060.020.010.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.140.0868.0070.030.050.03
IndianaB100.050.0875.0075.780.020.04
LamarSlnd0.050.0861.9067.230.010.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.090.0826.0928.60-0.04-0.03
RiderMAAC0.090.0837.5038.52-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MB120.090.0852.3846.150.00-0.01
West VirginiaBE0.050.0865.2265.170.010.02
Seattleind0.000.0623.5333.28-0.00-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.100.0614.2917.17-0.07-0.04
BuffaloMAC0.050.0668.4266.450.020.02
Brigham YoungWCC0.100.0675.0076.000.050.03
GonzagaWCC0.050.0681.8281.490.030.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.100.0635.0040.78-0.03-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.100.0655.0057.410.010.01
PennsylvaniaIvy0.100.0654.5556.840.010.01
BrownIvy0.100.0627.2723.80-0.04-0.03
MassachusettsA100.050.0673.9168.580.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.100.0647.6247.18-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.100.0638.1040.81-0.02-0.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0624.0024.86-0.02-0.03
CreightonMVC0.050.0687.5085.410.040.04
Florida InternationalSB0.090.0633.3337.16-0.03-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0662.5062.060.010.01
MinnesotaB100.090.0669.5761.310.040.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0654.1757.200.000.01
Northern IowaMVC0.090.0662.5061.500.020.01
Arizona St.P120.100.0530.4331.43-0.04-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.050.0542.8641.13-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityAE0.100.0548.0051.88-0.000.00
HofstraCAA0.100.0532.0035.39-0.04-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0554.1754.750.000.01
Portland St.BSky0.100.0542.8645.80-0.01-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.090.0537.5038.33-0.02-0.01
George MasonCAA0.090.0576.0072.500.050.02
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0545.4546.99-0.01-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.090.0544.0045.89-0.01-0.00
TexasB120.090.0560.8761.370.020.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.050.0552.3852.860.000.00
HawaiiWAC0.090.0557.1453.120.010.00
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.100.0519.0521.29-0.06-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0525.0023.75-0.02-0.03
PurdueB100.100.0565.2260.580.030.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0520.8320.60-0.03-0.03
St. LouisA100.050.0577.2777.670.030.03
Texas El PasoCUSA0.090.0543.4843.31-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0565.2263.610.020.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.100.0550.0051.530.000.00
MercerASun0.050.0570.8371.640.020.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0573.9175.490.020.03
FordhamA100.090.0540.9134.50-0.02-0.02
HoustonCUSA0.050.0547.6244.63-0.00-0.01
MarylandACC0.090.0559.0950.820.020.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.090.0538.8943.93-0.02-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0530.4326.44-0.04-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0519.0525.52-0.03-0.03
Old DominionCAA0.000.0560.0058.290.000.01
PortlandWCC0.000.0521.7421.70-0.00-0.03
RadfordBSth0.000.058.7013.10-0.00-0.04
StetsonASun0.050.0531.8231.31-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.040.0556.5255.200.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.090.0547.8343.66-0.00-0.01
YaleIvy0.050.0572.2263.190.020.01
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0317.3919.81-0.04-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0350.0048.900.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.050.0336.3638.48-0.01-0.01
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.050.0334.7835.20-0.02-0.01
NevadaWAC0.050.0380.9576.420.030.02
North DakotaGWC0.000.0333.3341.31-0.00-0.01
Virginia Military InstBSth0.050.0345.0044.15-0.01-0.00
Appalachian St.SC0.050.0335.0039.29-0.02-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0328.5734.20-0.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0340.9138.38-0.01-0.01
NC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0339.1336.10-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.035.267.30-0.00-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0340.9142.96-0.01-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.050.0312.5013.44-0.04-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.050.030.004.02-0.05-0.03
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.050.0347.8347.87-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.GWC0.050.034.769.95-0.04-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0355.0054.800.000.00
CornellIvy0.050.0336.8441.45-0.01-0.00
DelawareCAA0.050.0347.8350.65-0.000.00
DenverSB0.050.0370.8372.230.020.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0333.3334.47-0.02-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0354.5554.300.000.00
HowardMEAC0.050.0318.1822.22-0.03-0.02
IdahoWAC0.050.0347.6251.08-0.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0359.0957.760.010.00
MontanaBSky0.050.0370.0073.280.020.01
Texas TechB120.050.0331.8225.98-0.02-0.01
TowsonCAA0.050.034.005.26-0.05-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0317.6527.10-0.03-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0317.3924.41-0.03-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0338.1042.78-0.01-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0372.2271.970.000.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0379.1778.100.000.02
DuquesneA100.050.0359.0956.350.010.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0340.9144.03-0.01-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0319.0522.37-0.03-0.01
Fresno St.WAC0.050.0339.1344.52-0.01-0.00
George WashingtonA100.050.0334.7832.08-0.01-0.01
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.050.0335.0035.31-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0372.7368.280.020.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.038.7011.67-0.04-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0341.1842.61-0.01-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0325.0037.58-0.02-0.01
NebraskaB100.050.0352.3846.680.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0361.9055.140.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0345.4540.70-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0380.7780.750.030.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0362.5062.490.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0326.3229.79-0.02-0.01
Southern MethodistCUSA0.000.0338.1037.86-0.00-0.01
Southern MississippiCUSA0.000.0385.7182.180.000.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0347.0650.75-0.000.00
TempleA100.000.0377.2775.060.000.01
Texas ChristianMWC0.000.0357.1449.540.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.000.0335.0035.26-0.00-0.01
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.050.0380.0078.060.030.02
AlbanyAE0.040.0360.0060.420.010.01
BaylorB120.050.0390.9183.850.040.02
BryantNEC0.040.038.3310.86-0.04-0.02
CampbellBSth0.050.0356.0055.650.010.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.040.0345.4545.70-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.040.0390.4887.910.040.02
IUPUISum0.050.0334.7835.50-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechWAC0.050.0342.8643.45-0.01-0.00
MichiganB100.050.0372.7366.810.020.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0347.8348.56-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0330.0031.54-0.02-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0355.0054.480.000.00
OklahomaB120.050.0359.0954.700.010.00
QuinnipiacNEC0.040.0356.5257.150.010.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0352.3857.860.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0331.8242.13-0.02-0.00
Utah St.WAC0.050.0350.0052.930.000.00
Utah ValleyGWC0.050.0354.5557.690.000.00
WisconsinB100.050.0375.0073.970.020.01