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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Vanderbilt

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:63.0
Current RPI:63
Expected SOS:40
Current SOS:40
Current Record:19-13
Expected Record:19-13
Current Conf Record:11-8
Expected Conf Record:11-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:72
Expected OOC SOS:25



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1363.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Vanderbilt.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Austin Peay (184.0)OVCH80-41W100%0.0
11-16Gardner Webb (210.0)BSthH98-62W100%0.0
11-19Stony Brook (59.0)AEH79-72W100%0.0
11-23St. John's (246.0)BEN92-55W100%0.0
11-24Wake Forest (159.0)ACCN64-86W100%0.0
11-25Kansas (1.0)B12N70-63L0%0.0
12-2Detroit (204.0)HorzH102-52W100%0.0
12-6Baylor (25.0)B12A69-67L0%0.0
12-9Dayton (21.0)A10H67-72L0%0.0
12-19Wofford (199.0)SCH80-56W100%0.0
12-22Purdue (15.0)B10A68-55L0%0.0
12-30Western Michigan (202.0)MACH86-61W100%0.0
1-2LSU (94.0)SECH82-90L0%0.0
1-5Arkansas (133.0)SECA90-85L0%0.0
1-9South Carolina (65.0)SECA69-65L0%0.0
1-12Auburn (175.0)SECH75-57W100%0.0
1-16Alabama (73.0)SECH71-63W100%0.0
1-20Tennessee (143.0)SECA74-88W100%0.0
1-23Kentucky (11.0)SECA76-57L0%0.0
1-26Florida (55.0)SECH60-59W100%0.0
1-30Texas (27.0)B12A72-58L0%0.0
2-4Texas A&M (18.0)SECH77-60W100%0.0
2-6Mississippi (96.0)SECA85-78L0%0.0
2-10Missouri (222.0)SECH86-71W100%0.0
2-13Auburn (175.0)SECA57-86W100%0.0
2-16Mississippi St. (154.0)SECA75-74L0%0.0
2-20Georgia (62.0)SECH80-67W100%0.0
2-23Florida (55.0)SECA74-87W100%0.0
2-27Kentucky (11.0)SECH74-62W100%0.0
3-1Tennessee (143.0)SECH86-69W100%0.0
3-5Texas A&M (18.0)SECA76-67L0%0.0
3-10Tennessee (143.0)SECN65-67L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Vanderbilt's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Vanderbilt's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Vanderbilt.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
VanderbiltSEC26.1126.1158.8758.874.634.63
TennesseeSEC5.325.3245.1645.16-0.51-0.51
KentuckySEC3.823.8278.1278.122.152.15
Texas A&MSEC3.803.8078.1278.122.142.14
FloridaSEC3.743.7461.2961.290.850.85
AuburnSEC3.743.7437.9337.93-0.90-0.90
LSUSEC2.352.3556.2556.250.290.29
GeorgiaSEC2.292.2961.2961.290.520.52
ArkansasSEC2.282.2848.3948.39-0.07-0.07
AlabamaSEC2.262.2658.0658.060.360.36
South CarolinaSEC2.212.2173.3373.331.031.03
MississippiSEC2.192.1961.2961.290.490.49
MissouriSEC2.162.1633.3333.33-0.72-0.72
Mississippi St.SEC2.162.1643.3343.33-0.29-0.29
BaylorB121.781.7864.5264.520.520.52
KansasB121.731.7387.5087.501.301.30
TexasB121.731.7361.2961.290.390.39
Gardner WebbBSth1.661.6648.2848.28-0.06-0.06
WoffordSC1.611.6144.8344.83-0.17-0.17
DaytonA101.611.6177.4277.420.880.88
Wake ForestACC1.611.6136.6736.67-0.43-0.43
PurdueB101.611.6175.7675.760.830.83
Austin PeayOVC1.591.5950.0050.000.000.00
St. John'sBE1.591.5923.3323.33-0.85-0.85
DetroitHorz1.561.5650.0050.000.000.00
Stony BrookAE1.561.5682.7682.761.021.02
Western MichiganMAC1.561.5637.9337.93-0.38-0.38
Kansas St.B120.290.2951.5251.520.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.240.2437.5037.50-0.06-0.06
West VirginiaB120.220.2276.4776.470.110.11
TCUB120.210.2136.3636.36-0.06-0.06
XavierBE0.200.2084.3884.380.140.14
Texas TechB120.190.1961.2961.290.040.04
Iowa St.B120.190.1965.6265.620.060.06
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.180.1857.6957.690.030.03
Georgia TechACC0.170.1757.5857.580.030.03
OklahomaB120.170.1778.1278.120.090.09
MercerSC0.150.1554.8454.840.010.01
VermontAE0.150.1560.6160.610.030.03
ButlerBE0.140.1467.7467.740.050.05
UNC AshevilleBSth0.140.1464.5264.520.040.04
UMBCAE0.130.1321.8821.88-0.07-0.07
Wright St.Horz0.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
ClemsonACC0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.120.1248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.120.1220.8320.83-0.07-0.07
RichmondA100.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
George WashingtonA100.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.120.1276.6776.670.060.06
Michigan St.B100.120.1285.2985.290.080.08
Tennessee St.OVC0.120.1264.2964.290.030.03
GonzagaWCC0.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
NebraskaB100.110.1147.0647.06-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.100.1058.6258.620.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
DePaulBE0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
ChattanoogaSC0.100.1084.3884.380.070.07
WinthropBSth0.100.1068.9768.970.040.04
Notre DameACC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
SamfordSC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
HarvardIvy0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
Seton HallBE0.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
AlbanyAE0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
Florida St.ACC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Miami FLACC0.100.1078.1278.120.050.05
NJITASun0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
IndianaB100.100.1078.1278.120.050.05
IowaB100.100.1067.7467.740.030.03
DukeACC0.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
SyracuseACC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
North FloridaASun0.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.1079.4179.410.060.06
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.100.1011.1111.11-0.07-0.07
ArmyPat0.090.0958.0658.060.020.02
UCLAP120.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.090.0963.6463.640.030.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.090.0955.1755.170.010.01
Arizona St.P120.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
ToledoMAC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
OaklandHorz0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
CampbellBSth0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
HartfordAE0.080.0828.1228.12-0.03-0.03
LibertyBSth0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
VMISC0.080.0822.2222.22-0.04-0.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0822.2222.22-0.04-0.04
High PointBSth0.080.0864.2964.290.020.02
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.080.0882.3582.350.050.05
PittsburghACC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
RutgersB100.070.0719.3519.35-0.04-0.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.070.0760.7160.710.020.02
IllinoisB100.070.0744.1244.12-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
South FloridaAmer0.070.0724.2424.24-0.04-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
MarshallCUSA0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
Ohio St.B100.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Green BayHorz0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
MaineAE0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
New HampshireAE0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
RadfordBSth0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UMass LowellAE0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Miami OHMAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0582.1482.140.030.03
ColoradoP120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
CreightonBE0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
UABCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
VillanovaBE0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
Virginia TechACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
AmericanPat0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
LehighPat0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
LipscombASun0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
George MasonA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Saint LouisA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
StanfordP120.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0556.0056.000.010.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
MarylandB100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
UCFAmer0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
OhioMAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0377.7877.780.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
ArizonaP120.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0324.2424.24-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
DrexelCAA0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.030.0335.2935.29-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
WagnerNEC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.020.0212.9012.90-0.02-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
DavidsonA100.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
UTSACUSA0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0226.9226.92-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
Oregon St.P120.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
HowardMEAC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.020.0262.8662.860.010.01
Penn St.B100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00