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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Vanderbilt

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:104.0
Current RPI:104
Expected SOS:95
Current SOS:95
Current Record:18-13
Expected Record:18-13
Current Conf Record:9-10
Expected Conf Record:9-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:8-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-1
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:121
Expected OOC SOS:237



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-13104.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Vanderbilt.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-20Lipscomb (271.0)ASunH72-62W100%0.0
11-23Tennessee St. (341.0)OVCH78-46W100%0.0
11-25Norfolk St. (167.0)MEACH63-53W100%0.0
11-28Rutgers (178.0)B10N65-68L0%0.0
11-29La Salle (101.0)A10N55-68W100%0.0
12-4Baylor (10.0)B12H63-66L0%0.0
12-13Purdue (55.0)B10H81-71W100%0.0
12-16Western Carolina (220.0)SCH99-79W100%0.0
12-20Georgia Tech (153.0)ACCA65-60L0%0.0
12-22Penn (254.0)IvyH79-50W100%0.0
12-31Saint Louis (272.0)A10A55-70W100%0.0
1-3Yale (64.0)IvyH79-74W100%0.0
1-6Auburn (129.0)SECH64-52W100%0.0
1-10Arkansas (19.0)SECA82-70L0%0.0
1-14Georgia (38.0)SECH67-70L0%0.0
1-17Mississippi St. (216.0)SECA57-54L0%0.0
1-20Kentucky (1.0)SECA65-57L0%0.0
1-24LSU (57.0)SECH75-79L0%0.0
1-27Georgia (38.0)SECA70-62L0%0.0
1-31Texas A&M (67.0)SECA69-58L0%0.0
2-3Florida (72.0)SECH67-61W100%0.0
2-7South Carolina (91.0)SECH65-50W100%0.0
2-11Tennessee (96.0)SECH73-76L0%0.0
2-14Alabama (85.0)SECA68-76W100%0.0
2-18Florida (72.0)SECA50-47L0%0.0
2-21Missouri (218.0)SECH76-53W100%0.0
2-26Tennessee (96.0)SECA65-73W100%0.0
2-28Alabama (85.0)SECH73-66W100%0.0
3-4Mississippi St. (216.0)SECH66-56W100%0.0
3-7Mississippi (60.0)SECA77-86W100%0.0
3-12Tennessee (96.0)SECN61-67L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Vanderbilt's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Vanderbilt's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Vanderbilt.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
VanderbiltSEC26.1526.1554.9654.962.592.59
TennesseeSEC5.425.4248.2848.28-0.19-0.19
Mississippi St.SEC3.883.8837.9337.93-0.94-0.94
FloridaSEC3.863.8648.3948.39-0.12-0.12
GeorgiaSEC3.853.8563.3363.331.031.03
AlabamaSEC3.833.8358.6258.620.660.66
ArkansasSEC2.422.4275.7675.761.251.25
South CarolinaSEC2.422.4251.6151.610.080.08
AuburnSEC2.372.3742.4242.42-0.36-0.36
KentuckySEC2.372.37100.00100.002.372.37
MissouriSEC2.292.2926.6726.67-1.07-1.07
MississippiSEC2.292.2964.5264.520.670.67
Texas A&MSEC2.292.2963.3363.330.610.61
LSUSEC2.292.2967.7467.740.810.81
YaleIvy1.721.7268.9768.970.650.65
Tennessee St.OVC1.721.7210.7110.71-1.35-1.35
Western CarolinaSC1.721.7244.8344.83-0.18-0.18
PennIvy1.691.6933.3333.33-0.56-0.56
BaylorB121.691.6970.9770.970.710.71
Saint LouisA101.691.6933.3333.33-0.56-0.56
PurdueB101.691.6965.6265.620.530.53
Norfolk St.MEAC1.691.6960.0060.000.340.34
La SalleA101.671.6753.1253.120.100.10
LipscombASun1.671.6740.7440.74-0.31-0.31
Georgia TechACC1.661.6636.6736.67-0.44-0.44
RutgersB101.661.6629.0329.03-0.70-0.70
Kansas St.B120.230.2346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.220.2276.4776.470.120.12
Tennessee TechOVC0.210.2135.7135.71-0.06-0.06
MercerSC0.210.2151.6151.610.010.01
DaytonA100.200.2075.7675.760.100.10
Texas SouthernSWAC0.200.2064.7164.710.060.06
North FloridaASun0.190.1964.5264.520.050.05
MinnesotaB100.180.1853.1253.120.010.01
ClemsonACC0.180.1851.6151.610.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.170.1751.7251.720.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.160.1624.1424.14-0.08-0.08
East Tennessee St.SC0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
TCUB120.160.1654.5554.550.010.01
VCUA100.150.1574.2974.290.070.07
Iowa St.B120.150.1575.7675.760.080.08
HarvardIvy0.140.1474.0774.070.070.07
CornellIvy0.140.1441.3841.38-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.140.1463.3363.330.040.04
ColumbiaIvy0.140.1444.4444.44-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.130.1348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.130.1366.6766.670.040.04
VirginiaACC0.130.1390.6290.620.110.11
Florida St.ACC0.130.1351.5251.520.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.130.1370.0070.000.050.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
IllinoisB100.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.120.1240.6240.62-0.02-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.120.1268.5768.570.050.05
MassachusettsA100.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
BelmontOVC0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
BrownIvy0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.110.1121.4321.43-0.06-0.06
Southern IllinoisMVC0.110.1134.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.100.1047.0647.06-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
ColoradoP120.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.100.1040.7440.74-0.02-0.02
XavierBE0.100.1061.7661.760.020.02
MarquetteBE0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
West VirginiaB120.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
Texas TechB120.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
Penn St.B100.100.1052.9452.940.010.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.090.0939.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
WoffordSC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.080.0887.1087.100.060.06
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Southern MissCUSA0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Notre DameACC0.080.0885.2985.290.050.05
TowsonCAA0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
OklahomaB120.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0858.8258.820.010.01
Oregon St.P120.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
UCLAP120.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
George WashingtonA100.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
NorthwesternB100.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
TroySB0.080.0829.6329.63-0.03-0.03
DavidsonA100.070.0776.6776.670.040.04
FordhamA100.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Miami FLACC0.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
MarylandB100.070.0781.8281.820.050.05
MichiganB100.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
UABCUSA0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
WisconsinB100.070.0791.1891.180.060.06
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0665.5265.520.020.02
StetsonASun0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
LafayettePat0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
VMISC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
VillanovaBE0.050.0594.1294.120.050.05
HartfordAE0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0559.2659.260.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
HowardMEAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0518.7518.75-0.03-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
TulaneAmer0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0527.2727.27-0.02-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0572.4172.410.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
HofstraCAA0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
IPFWSum0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.050.0593.9493.940.040.04
SouthernSWAC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0555.5655.560.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
IowaB100.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Michigan St.B100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
NebraskaB100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
NavyPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
AlbanyAE0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
BryantNEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
NJITind0.030.0356.0056.000.000.00
OaklandHorz0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
ElonCAA0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0375.8675.860.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
PittsburghACC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
CreightonBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
New HampshireAE0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
OregonP120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0386.6786.670.020.02
Weber St.BSky0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
AmericanPat0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
BYUWCC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
ColgatePat0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.020.000.00-0.02-0.02
IUPUISum0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.020.0262.9662.960.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
IonaMAAC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.020.0281.2581.250.010.01
TulsaAmer0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00