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Through games of Nov 27, 2014.


Vanderbilt

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:122.7
Current RPI:194
Expected SOS:89
Current SOS:339
Current Record:3-0
Expected Record:16-13
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-1
Current OOC Record:3-0
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:127
Expected OOC SOS:203



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-417.00.01%
23-625.50.08%
22-734.00.32%
21-842.71.16%
20-955.02.74%
19-1068.55.61%
18-1183.510.36%
17-1298.114.44%
16-13114.416.98%
15-14131.416.86%
14-15148.813.98%
13-16166.79.24%
12-17186.25.00%
11-18204.42.16%
10-19227.90.74%
9-20240.20.29%
8-21248.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Vanderbilt.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-20Lipscomb (219.4)ASunH72-62W100%0.0
11-23Tennessee St. (306.9)OVCH78-46W100%0.0
11-25Norfolk St. (232.2)MEACH63-53W100%0.0
11-28Rutgers (232.7)B10N0-079%9.8
12-4Baylor (14.4)B12H0-028%-7.0
12-13Purdue (48.1)B10H0-036%-4.2
12-16Western Carolina (208.8)SCH0-084%12.2
12-20Georgia Tech (122.1)ACCA0-039%-3.4
12-22Penn (317.0)IvyH0-093%18.1
12-31Saint Louis (170.8)A10A0-055%1.4
1-3Yale (61.9)IvyH0-055%1.6
1-6Auburn (179.7)SECH0-077%8.8
1-10Arkansas (23.6)SECA0-014%-13.2
1-14Georgia (74.6)SECH0-051%0.3
1-17Mississippi St. (192.4)SECA0-054%1.4
1-20Kentucky (3.6)SECA0-04%-21.5
1-24LSU (91.2)SECH0-056%1.8
1-27Georgia (74.6)SECA0-028%-6.9
1-31Texas A&M (47.8)SECA0-020%-9.9
2-3Florida (52.3)SECH0-040%-3.0
2-7South Carolina (85.9)SECH0-051%0.3
2-11Tennessee (138.8)SECH0-067%5.2
2-14Alabama (69.6)SECA0-029%-6.7
2-18Florida (52.3)SECA0-020%-10.2
2-21Missouri (156.6)SECH0-071%6.7
2-26Tennessee (138.8)SECA0-043%-2.0
2-28Alabama (69.6)SECH0-052%0.5
3-4Mississippi St. (192.4)SECH0-076%8.5
3-7Mississippi (100.2)SECA0-035%-4.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Vanderbilt's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Vanderbilt's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Vanderbilt.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
VanderbiltSEC32.6426.15100.0049.5232.64-0.25
Mississippi St.SEC0.004.12100.0045.920.00-0.34
GeorgiaSEC0.004.0960.0056.620.000.54
TennesseeSEC0.004.0966.6746.600.00-0.28
AlabamaSEC0.004.0680.0058.470.000.69
FloridaSEC0.004.0660.0061.850.000.96
South CarolinaSEC0.002.4850.0052.360.000.12
KentuckySEC0.002.45100.0089.240.001.92
MissouriSEC0.002.4540.0036.65-0.00-0.65
MississippiSEC0.002.4575.0052.640.000.13
Texas A&MSEC0.002.4575.0068.280.000.90
ArkansasSEC0.002.43100.0079.470.001.43
LSUSEC0.002.4360.0056.670.000.32
AuburnSEC0.002.4260.0038.220.00-0.57
YaleIvy0.001.8480.0071.860.000.81
Western CarolinaSC0.001.8440.0049.14-0.00-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC16.671.820.0026.01-16.67-0.87
BaylorB120.001.81100.0075.240.000.92
Norfolk St.MEAC16.671.8133.3349.62-5.56-0.01
PurdueB100.001.8183.3368.560.000.67
LipscombASun16.671.780.0045.41-16.67-0.16
Georgia TechACC0.001.7875.0044.240.00-0.21
PennIvy0.001.780.0024.16-0.00-0.92
Saint LouisA100.001.7875.0046.920.00-0.11
RutgersB100.001.7850.0024.570.00-0.91
Kansas St.B120.000.2450.0046.120.00-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.2150.0037.530.00-0.05
MercerSC0.000.2150.0054.380.000.02
Texas SouthernSWAC2.080.210.0041.21-2.08-0.04
ClemsonACC0.000.2060.0050.620.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.1820.0037.69-0.00-0.05
JacksonvilleASun0.000.180.0025.17-0.00-0.09
North FloridaASun0.000.1840.0051.36-0.000.00
DaytonA100.000.1875.0071.300.000.07
Iowa St.B120.000.1775.0061.130.000.04
USC UpstateASun0.000.1675.0057.260.000.02
ChattanoogaSC0.000.1540.0054.85-0.000.01
CornellIvy0.000.1542.8641.73-0.00-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.000.1575.0065.610.000.05
Florida St.ACC0.000.1540.0038.97-0.00-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.000.1566.6751.440.000.00
KansasB120.000.1475.0062.620.000.04
BelmontOVC5.560.1380.0075.553.330.07
Austin PeayOVC0.000.1320.0039.02-0.00-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.000.1216.6745.35-0.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.000.1275.0060.510.000.03
BrownIvy0.000.1216.6730.56-0.00-0.05
DartmouthIvy0.000.120.0036.65-0.00-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1266.6758.150.000.02
HarvardIvy0.000.1266.6773.130.000.06
Southern IllinoisMVC2.780.1240.0047.94-0.56-0.00
VCUA100.000.1280.0073.390.000.06
TexasB120.000.12100.0079.050.000.07
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.12100.0064.840.000.04
TCUB120.000.12100.0058.380.000.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.12100.0060.400.000.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.120.0047.66-0.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1225.0043.27-0.00-0.02
Texas TechB120.000.1275.0045.180.00-0.01
XavierBE0.000.11100.0078.730.000.07
MinnesotaB100.000.1150.0055.020.000.01
IllinoisB100.000.11100.0067.700.000.04
IndianaB100.000.1180.0056.380.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.1033.3329.78-0.00-0.04
VirginiaACC4.860.09100.0073.334.860.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.090.0028.59-0.00-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0925.0039.20-0.00-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.09100.0057.070.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0980.0074.090.000.04
Notre DameACC0.000.0983.3369.110.000.03
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0950.0028.400.00-0.04
Miami FLACC0.000.09100.0078.880.000.05
OklahomaB120.000.0980.0070.540.000.04
Oregon St.P120.000.0950.0042.750.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.000.09100.0063.120.000.02
TroySB0.000.090.0044.27-0.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0983.3338.760.00-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.090.0036.05-0.00-0.02
SamfordSC0.000.0933.3335.99-0.00-0.02
West VirginiaB120.000.09100.0068.860.000.03
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0975.0069.780.000.03
Wichita St.MVC0.000.09100.0083.180.000.06
Arizona St.P120.000.0960.0053.400.000.01
MarylandB100.000.09100.0071.310.000.04
MichiganB100.000.0975.0066.060.000.03
Penn St.B100.000.0983.3348.340.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0966.6751.730.000.00
UABCUSA0.000.0920.0037.96-0.00-0.02
UCLAP120.000.0966.6758.390.000.01
Ohio St.B100.000.08100.0074.590.000.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0780.0072.320.000.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0725.0039.34-0.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.070.0029.60-0.00-0.03
ButlerBE0.000.0680.0071.410.000.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0028.02-0.00-0.03
HowardMEAC0.000.0625.0045.04-0.00-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0625.0031.20-0.00-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0633.3358.80-0.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0616.6739.60-0.00-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0625.0037.88-0.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0660.0067.380.000.02
La SalleA100.000.06100.0056.910.000.01
LafayettePat0.000.0660.0061.400.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0650.0036.580.00-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.060.0033.42-0.00-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0666.6750.170.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0650.0052.540.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0620.0050.32-0.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0620.0040.88-0.00-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.060.0052.73-0.000.00
DuquesneA100.000.06100.0053.990.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.060.0039.39-0.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0620.0022.17-0.00-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.000.06100.0088.610.000.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0015.46-0.00-0.04
Rhode IslandA100.000.0666.6756.430.000.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0660.0068.620.000.02
The CitadelSC0.000.060.0028.25-0.00-0.03
TulaneAmer0.000.0666.6739.850.00-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0625.0053.73-0.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.060.0028.00-0.00-0.03
Utah St.MWC0.000.0660.0055.000.000.01
VermontAE0.000.0650.0064.890.000.02
VMISC0.000.0625.0035.97-0.00-0.02
WoffordSC0.000.0680.0077.100.000.03
FurmanSC0.000.0625.0027.48-0.00-0.03
Boston UniversityPat2.080.0625.0053.47-1.040.00
IPFWSum0.000.0666.6762.480.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.06100.0078.390.000.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0640.0033.19-0.00-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0666.6753.030.000.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0675.0069.240.000.02
HartfordAE0.000.0680.0051.710.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0625.0033.76-0.00-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0035.47-0.00-0.02
MassachusettsA100.000.0683.3366.830.000.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.06100.0065.930.000.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0633.3363.17-0.000.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.0680.0063.370.000.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0625.0043.61-0.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0675.0055.470.000.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0680.0057.880.000.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0675.0055.000.000.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0640.0053.54-0.000.00
IowaB100.000.0666.6765.220.000.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0680.0074.350.000.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0620.0034.53-0.00-0.02
NebraskaB100.000.0675.0052.330.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.060.0050.53-0.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0065.020.000.02
WisconsinB100.000.06100.0087.590.000.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0640.0058.41-0.000.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0032.17-0.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0320.0031.24-0.00-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.030.0023.09-0.00-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0340.0038.03-0.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.03100.0083.320.000.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.030.0035.88-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0019.02-0.00-0.02
HofstraCAA0.000.0360.0068.830.000.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0380.0046.880.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.000.0320.0034.06-0.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0360.0039.990.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0314.2930.86-0.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0325.0036.14-0.00-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0333.3367.57-0.000.01
NavyPat0.000.0320.0030.56-0.00-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0333.3330.24-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.030.0067.79-0.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0360.0057.910.000.00
RiderMAAC0.000.0340.0043.47-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0036.81-0.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0380.0067.950.000.01
TempleAmer0.000.0360.0050.480.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0366.6741.200.00-0.01
VillanovaBE0.000.03100.0075.980.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0360.0035.980.00-0.01
WagnerNEC0.000.030.0044.93-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.000.0360.0066.680.000.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0350.0063.340.000.01
BryantNEC0.000.0333.3346.36-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0018.96-0.00-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0325.0049.53-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.000.0366.6764.030.000.01
FordhamA100.000.030.0026.23-0.00-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0360.0068.290.000.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0320.0031.46-0.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0360.0040.420.00-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0375.0066.230.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0350.0045.460.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.000.0333.3360.46-0.000.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0350.0070.920.000.01
NJITind0.000.0320.0030.12-0.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0316.6726.26-0.00-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.030.0040.56-0.00-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0350.0056.120.000.00
RichmondA100.000.0350.0063.970.000.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0333.3354.85-0.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0375.0052.070.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0325.0068.20-0.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0333.3352.29-0.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0350.0032.470.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0350.0048.990.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.000.03100.0076.220.000.02
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0061.500.000.01
ElonCAA0.000.0340.0039.26-0.00-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0333.3338.66-0.00-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0325.0052.42-0.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0325.0049.08-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.000.0333.3346.25-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0360.0056.430.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.030.0035.74-0.00-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0340.0038.51-0.00-0.01
OregonP120.000.0360.0063.290.000.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0325.0045.71-0.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0360.0055.660.000.00
UMKCWAC0.000.0320.0042.43-0.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0375.0056.110.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0340.0045.07-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0333.3353.65-0.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0350.0040.660.00-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.030.0063.05-0.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0375.0064.570.000.01
BYUWCC0.000.0350.0067.630.000.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.0020.98-0.00-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0340.0046.34-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0380.0079.440.000.02
IUPUISum0.000.0340.0030.22-0.00-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.030.0020.51-0.00-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.0375.0039.180.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0380.0074.880.000.01
SMUAmer0.000.0350.0065.590.000.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0360.0053.140.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0375.0050.750.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.0325.0052.78-0.000.00