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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Vanderbilt

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:132.0
Current RPI:132
Expected SOS:5
Current SOS:5
Current Record:12-20
Expected Record:12-20
Current Conf Record:6-13
Expected Conf Record:6-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-7
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:2-0
Current OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC RPI:144
Expected OOC SOS:17



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-20132.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Vanderbilt.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Austin Peay (164.0)OVCH73-54W100%0.0
11-13Belmont (81.0)OVCA69-60L0%0.0
11-17UNC Asheville (130.0)BSthH79-76W100%0.0
11-19USC (34.0)P12H89-93L0%0.0
11-23Virginia (1.0)ACCN42-68L0%0.0
11-24Seton Hall (31.0)BEN72-59L0%0.0
11-28Radford (128.0)BSthH74-62W100%0.0
12-3Kansas St. (53.0)B12H79-84L0%0.0
12-6Middle Tennessee (33.0)CUSAH63-66L0%0.0
12-17Arizona St. (66.0)P12A76-64L0%0.0
12-20Houston Baptist (345.0)SlndH81-48W100%0.0
12-22Alcorn St. (348.0)SWACH92-51W100%0.0
12-30Florida (46.0)SECA81-74L0%0.0
1-2Alabama (42.0)SECH76-75W100%0.0
1-6South Carolina (90.0)SECA71-60L0%0.0
1-9Tennessee (8.0)SECH84-92L0%0.0
1-13Kentucky (10.0)SECH67-74L0%0.0
1-16Mississippi St. (73.0)SECA80-62L0%0.0
1-20LSU (95.0)SECH77-71W100%0.0
1-23Tennessee (8.0)SECA67-62L0%0.0
1-27TCU (26.0)B12H81-78W100%0.0
1-30Kentucky (10.0)SECA83-81L0%0.0
2-3Auburn (15.0)SECA93-81L0%0.0
2-7Georgia (79.0)SECH81-66W100%0.0
2-10Arkansas (30.0)SECA72-54L0%0.0
2-14Mississippi St. (73.0)SECH81-80W100%0.0
2-17Florida (46.0)SECH71-68W100%0.0
2-20LSU (95.0)SECA88-78L0%0.0
2-24Texas A&M (29.0)SECH81-89L0%0.0
2-27Missouri (43.0)SECH66-74L0%0.0
3-3Mississippi (141.0)SECA69-82W100%0.0
3-7Georgia (79.0)SECN78-62L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Vanderbilt's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Vanderbilt's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Vanderbilt.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
VanderbiltSEC26.0726.0729.8529.85-10.51-10.51
GeorgiaSEC3.833.8354.8454.840.370.37
KentuckySEC3.803.8068.7568.751.431.43
TennesseeSEC3.803.8074.1974.191.841.84
Mississippi St.SEC3.733.7366.6766.671.241.24
LSUSEC3.733.7355.1755.170.390.39
FloridaSEC3.703.7063.3363.330.990.99
AlabamaSEC2.292.2957.5857.580.350.35
ArkansasSEC2.272.2766.6766.670.760.76
South CarolinaSEC2.262.2648.3948.39-0.07-0.07
MississippiSEC2.212.2138.7138.71-0.50-0.50
Texas A&MSEC2.212.2161.2961.290.500.50
MissouriSEC2.212.2160.0060.000.440.44
AuburnSEC2.192.1977.4277.421.201.20
Kansas St.B121.711.7165.6265.620.530.53
BelmontOVC1.691.6971.8871.880.740.74
Austin PeayOVC1.661.6655.1755.170.170.17
Middle TennesseeCUSA1.661.6675.8675.860.860.86
TCUB121.661.6667.7467.740.590.59
USCP121.641.6466.6766.670.550.55
UNC AshevilleBSth1.641.6463.3363.330.440.44
Alcorn St.SWAC1.611.6125.9325.93-0.78-0.78
RadfordBSth1.611.6164.5264.520.470.47
Arizona St.P121.611.6163.3363.330.430.43
VirginiaACC1.591.5993.7593.751.391.39
Houston BaptistSlnd1.591.5911.1111.11-1.23-1.23
Seton HallBE1.561.5664.5264.520.450.45
KansasB120.220.2279.4179.410.130.13
West VirginiaB120.220.2270.5970.590.090.09
Oklahoma St.B120.200.2057.5857.580.030.03
Iowa St.B120.200.2041.9441.94-0.03-0.03
WinthropBSth0.200.2057.1457.140.030.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.170.1727.5927.59-0.08-0.08
North FloridaASun0.170.1736.6736.67-0.05-0.05
BaylorB120.170.1754.8454.840.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.170.1737.9337.93-0.04-0.04
Virginia TechACC0.170.1765.6265.620.050.05
OklahomaB120.170.1758.0658.060.030.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.150.1580.0080.000.090.09
Murray St.OVC0.150.1582.7682.760.100.10
LibertyBSth0.150.1554.8454.840.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.150.1513.3313.33-0.11-0.11
Jacksonville St.OVC0.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
High PointBSth0.150.1540.7440.74-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.150.1559.3859.380.030.03
PresbyterianBSth0.150.1527.5927.59-0.07-0.07
UtahP120.150.1563.3363.330.040.04
ClemsonACC0.150.1571.8871.880.060.06
StanfordP120.150.1554.5554.550.010.01
Texas TechB120.150.1572.7372.730.070.07
ArizonaP120.140.1479.4179.410.080.08
TexasB120.140.1457.5857.580.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.140.1440.6240.62-0.03-0.03
LouisvilleACC0.140.1460.6160.610.030.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.130.1351.7251.720.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.130.1330.7730.77-0.05-0.05
Southern MissCUSA0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.130.1334.4834.48-0.04-0.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.120.1242.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
ColoradoP120.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
OregonP120.120.1264.7164.710.040.04
Oregon St.P120.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.120.1235.4835.48-0.03-0.03
LipscombASun0.120.1268.9768.970.040.04
North CarolinaACC0.120.1271.4371.430.050.05
UCLAP120.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.110.1145.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.100.109.689.68-0.08-0.08
Alabama St.SWAC0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Incarnate WordSlnd0.100.1012.5012.50-0.08-0.08
Western KentuckyCUSA0.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
ProvidenceBE0.100.1061.7661.760.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.100.1046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.100.1046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Green BayHorz0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.100.1088.2488.240.070.07
CaliforniaP120.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Rhode IslandA100.100.1078.1278.120.050.05
USC UpstateASun0.100.1010.7110.71-0.08-0.08
TempleAmer0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
VillanovaBE0.100.1088.2488.240.070.07
TroySB0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0844.1244.12-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
UABCUSA0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
XavierBE0.070.0784.8584.850.050.05
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0722.2222.22-0.04-0.04
HoustonAmer0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
MemphisAmer0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
SamfordSC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
ButlerBE0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
DaytonA100.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
FurmanSC0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0784.8584.850.050.05
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
DukeACC0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
Florida St.ACC0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
WashingtonP120.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Washington St.P120.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.070.0739.3939.39-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.070.0762.0762.070.020.02
MercerSC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0632.0032.00-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0612.5012.50-0.04-0.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
IllinoisB100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
WagnerNEC0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
WoffordSC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
UC IrvineBW0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
DePaulBE0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Little RockSB0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
NevadaMWC0.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
New HampshireAE0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UCFAmer0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.03-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
BryantNEC0.050.059.689.68-0.04-0.04
PurdueB100.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
SyracuseACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
LehighPat0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Fort WayneSum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
HarvardIvy0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
MinnesotaB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0565.5265.520.010.01
VermontAE0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.038.008.00-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
HofstraCAA0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
IndianaB100.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
NJITASun0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
Ohio St.B100.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Penn St.B100.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
RutgersB100.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
UC DavisBW0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
VMISC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
WyomingMWC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
AmericanPat0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
DavidsonA100.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
George WashingtonA100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
TulsaAmer0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
UMKCWAC0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
BYUWCC0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.020.0283.3383.330.020.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00