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Through games of Dec 19, 2014.


Vanderbilt

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:90.9
Current RPI:138
Expected SOS:84
Current SOS:200
Current Record:6-2
Expected Record:18-12
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-1
Current OOC Record:6-2
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:103
Expected OOC SOS:204



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-518.00.03%
24-624.10.17%
23-731.60.90%
22-838.83.23%
21-948.87.50%
20-1061.213.19%
19-1175.317.95%
18-1290.418.94%
17-13106.716.86%
16-14123.510.91%
15-15141.26.68%
14-16159.52.49%
13-17176.80.88%
12-18191.80.23%
11-19217.30.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Vanderbilt.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-20Lipscomb (261.8)ASunH72-62W100%0.0
11-23Tennessee St. (331.4)OVCH78-46W100%0.0
11-25Norfolk St. (161.8)MEACH63-53W100%0.0
11-28Rutgers (159.4)B10N65-68L0%0.0
11-29La Salle (125.3)A10N55-68W100%0.0
12-4Baylor (10.4)B12H63-66L0%0.0
12-13Purdue (59.1)B10H81-71W100%0.0
12-16Western Carolina (248.3)SCH99-79W100%0.0
12-20Georgia Tech (89.2)ACCA0-044%-1.8
12-22Penn (268.0)IvyH0-092%16.6
12-31Saint Louis (270.0)A10A0-084%11.5
1-3Yale (62.4)IvyH0-072%6.8
1-6Auburn (186.5)SECH0-085%12.3
1-10Arkansas (42.6)SECA0-025%-7.8
1-14Georgia (53.1)SECH0-057%2.0
1-17Mississippi St. (212.4)SECA0-062%3.7
1-20Kentucky (1.4)SECA0-02%-24.9
1-24LSU (68.4)SECH0-065%4.6
1-27Georgia (53.1)SECA0-028%-6.7
1-31Texas A&M (54.7)SECA0-030%-6.2
2-3Florida (42.1)SECH0-045%-1.4
2-7South Carolina (38.5)SECH0-044%-1.8
2-11Tennessee (133.3)SECH0-079%9.3
2-14Alabama (82.4)SECA0-038%-3.5
2-18Florida (42.1)SECA0-019%-10.2
2-21Missouri (177.3)SECH0-087%13.2
2-26Tennessee (133.3)SECA0-052%0.6
2-28Alabama (82.4)SECH0-067%5.2
3-4Mississippi St. (212.4)SECH0-086%12.4
3-7Mississippi (99.7)SECA0-045%-1.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Vanderbilt's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Vanderbilt's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Vanderbilt.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
VanderbiltSEC27.5126.1162.5057.396.883.86
Mississippi St.SEC0.313.9750.0040.590.00-0.75
GeorgiaSEC0.003.9462.5059.650.000.76
TennesseeSEC0.003.9455.5646.390.00-0.28
AlabamaSEC0.313.9166.6755.170.100.40
FloridaSEC0.003.9160.0063.890.001.09
South CarolinaSEC0.312.3866.6766.480.100.79
MissouriSEC0.282.3644.4432.57-0.03-0.82
KentuckySEC0.002.36100.0095.010.002.12
MississippiSEC0.002.3570.0052.470.000.12
Texas A&MSEC0.312.3577.7865.730.170.74
ArkansasSEC0.002.3377.7871.670.001.01
AuburnSEC0.002.3344.4436.64-0.00-0.62
LSUSEC0.002.3380.0065.000.000.70
YaleIvy0.001.7872.7368.020.000.64
Western CarolinaSC6.251.7822.2242.55-3.47-0.26
Tennessee St.OVC6.601.750.0015.72-6.60-1.20
BaylorB126.251.7588.8972.904.860.80
PennIvy0.001.7537.5033.94-0.00-0.56
Norfolk St.MEAC6.251.7560.0061.231.250.39
Saint LouisA100.001.7560.0034.510.00-0.54
PurdueB106.251.7580.0065.903.750.56
La SalleA106.251.7255.5651.600.690.06
LipscombASun6.601.7225.0039.64-3.30-0.36
Georgia TechACC0.001.7277.7851.680.000.06
RutgersB106.251.7255.5632.750.69-0.59
Kansas St.B120.280.2260.0037.150.06-0.06
DaytonA100.000.2277.7869.970.000.09
Tennessee TechOVC0.350.2044.4449.69-0.04-0.00
MercerSC0.000.2044.4444.53-0.00-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.600.1911.1144.75-0.46-0.02
ClemsonACC0.310.1960.0044.120.06-0.02
KansasB120.000.1988.8969.210.000.07
PrincetonIvy0.350.1833.3340.96-0.12-0.03
North FloridaASun0.280.1850.0057.210.000.03
JacksonvilleASun0.000.1710.0018.22-0.00-0.11
Iowa St.B120.000.1788.8963.400.000.04
TCUB120.000.17100.0066.920.000.06
MinnesotaB100.310.1680.0066.580.190.05
USC UpstateASun0.000.1560.0064.800.000.04
CornellIvy0.000.1555.5648.170.00-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.1540.0049.77-0.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.000.1462.5064.770.000.04
VirginiaACC1.260.14100.0085.761.260.10
VCUA100.000.1470.0071.450.000.06
Florida St.ACC0.000.1450.0038.230.00-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.000.1462.5073.430.000.06
IllinoisB100.310.1472.7365.120.140.04
North CarolinaACC0.000.1470.0072.100.000.06
Wake ForestACC0.000.1450.0038.520.00-0.03
BelmontOVC0.690.1260.0061.960.140.03
Austin PeayOVC0.350.1222.2230.55-0.19-0.05
BrownIvy0.000.1240.0033.52-0.00-0.04
DartmouthIvy0.000.1250.0046.960.00-0.01
HarvardIvy0.000.1285.7172.890.000.05
ColoradoP120.350.1266.6757.620.120.02
HamptonMEAC0.690.1145.4550.81-0.060.00
TexasB120.350.1190.0081.650.280.07
Southern IllinoisMVC0.690.1154.5544.640.06-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.310.1171.4364.140.130.03
Oklahoma St.B120.000.1188.8963.880.000.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1155.5640.440.00-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC1.260.1136.3647.58-0.34-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC1.260.1122.2240.60-0.70-0.02
XavierBE0.000.1180.0070.970.000.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1144.4446.81-0.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.280.1181.8264.670.180.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.310.1125.0048.53-0.16-0.00
Texas TechB120.000.1190.0055.490.000.01
MassachusettsA100.000.1160.0055.280.000.01
IndianaB100.000.1180.0057.340.000.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0936.3633.52-0.00-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0940.0046.66-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.090.0024.34-0.00-0.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0850.0068.680.000.03
SamfordSC0.280.0833.3331.23-0.09-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0837.5034.46-0.00-0.03
Arizona St.P120.000.0860.0053.630.000.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0860.0049.590.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.000.0877.7867.320.000.03
Oregon St.P120.000.0877.7855.570.000.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0887.5085.540.000.06
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0850.0057.700.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.280.0833.3345.98-0.09-0.01
DuquesneA100.000.0828.5731.22-0.00-0.03
George MasonA100.000.0825.0026.38-0.00-0.04
Notre DameACC0.000.0890.9172.430.000.04
Seton HallBE0.310.0890.0067.320.250.03
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0842.8626.94-0.00-0.04
TowsonCAA0.000.0866.6751.280.000.00
TroySB0.000.0833.3339.50-0.00-0.02
UCLAP120.000.0872.7357.230.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0890.0067.450.000.03
FordhamA100.000.0828.5728.06-0.00-0.04
Miami FLACC0.000.0881.8266.320.000.03
NorthwesternB100.000.0860.0040.370.00-0.02
George WashingtonA100.310.0866.6766.380.100.03
MarylandB100.000.0890.9167.370.000.03
MichiganB100.000.0855.5642.460.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0890.0084.460.000.06
Penn St.B100.000.0890.9153.570.000.01
UABCUSA0.000.0830.0036.94-0.00-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0677.7869.590.000.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0633.3343.01-0.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.0610.0027.15-0.00-0.03
LafayettePat0.000.0675.0070.210.000.02
RiderMAAC0.000.0650.0053.130.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.280.060.0014.67-0.28-0.04
FurmanSC0.000.0622.2231.52-0.00-0.02
HowardMEAC0.000.0630.0043.48-0.00-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0655.5637.870.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0616.6737.98-0.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.280.0618.1836.00-0.18-0.02
The CitadelSC0.000.0616.6730.30-0.00-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0614.2945.11-0.00-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0622.2237.12-0.00-0.01
VMISC0.000.0633.3338.93-0.00-0.01
WoffordSC0.000.0677.7875.790.000.03
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0644.4456.59-0.000.01
TempleAmer0.310.0663.6455.560.090.01
VillanovaBE0.310.06100.0081.870.310.04
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0660.0063.510.000.02
HartfordAE0.000.0650.0050.810.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0650.0047.740.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.060.0023.36-0.00-0.03
VermontAE0.000.0644.4457.69-0.000.01
Boston UniversityPat0.280.0633.3342.54-0.09-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.310.0642.8649.88-0.04-0.00
HofstraCAA0.280.0677.7878.860.160.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.280.0636.3647.56-0.08-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.0672.7353.500.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.310.0644.4449.63-0.03-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0650.0058.380.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0618.1827.79-0.00-0.02
ButlerBE0.000.0680.0072.370.000.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0650.0052.110.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.000.0690.0090.870.000.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.0610.0018.50-0.00-0.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0650.0040.680.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0644.4444.86-0.00-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0633.3355.14-0.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0688.8955.090.000.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0660.0052.190.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0557.1470.410.000.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0550.0045.370.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0587.5076.810.000.03
IPFWSum0.280.0557.1456.380.040.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.05100.0085.970.000.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0533.3334.61-0.00-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.050.0036.84-0.00-0.01
RichmondA100.000.0555.5657.270.000.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0550.0073.610.000.03
SouthernSWAC0.000.050.0034.05-0.00-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.0575.0065.210.000.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0537.5050.60-0.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.0566.6759.590.000.01
IowaB100.000.0572.7362.430.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0533.3345.26-0.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0572.7373.190.000.02
NebraskaB100.000.0566.6744.280.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0557.1456.650.000.01
WisconsinB100.000.0590.9188.540.000.04
BinghamtonAE0.000.030.0011.87-0.00-0.02
MaristMAAC0.000.0310.0018.65-0.00-0.02
NavyPat0.000.0320.0021.61-0.00-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0312.5029.32-0.00-0.01
WagnerNEC0.000.0314.2933.57-0.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0360.0056.170.000.00
AlbanyAE0.000.0333.3348.78-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0318.1831.71-0.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.0328.5746.99-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.310.030.0011.34-0.31-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0333.3349.72-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0333.3339.29-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0012.00-0.00-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.310.0362.5071.350.080.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0318.1821.03-0.00-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.0370.0060.840.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0375.0059.530.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0325.0038.65-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0338.4644.31-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.280.0337.5038.31-0.07-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0355.5661.910.000.01
NJITind0.000.0336.3641.21-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0344.4469.77-0.000.01
OaklandHorz0.310.0330.0031.32-0.12-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0320.0029.91-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0362.5067.130.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.310.0360.0057.640.060.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0028.67-0.00-0.01
ArizonaP120.000.03100.0082.300.000.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0366.6742.760.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.000.0333.3332.70-0.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.03100.0087.560.000.02
ElonCAA0.000.0337.5047.90-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0333.3333.03-0.00-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0342.8652.90-0.000.00
MemphisAmer0.310.0355.5660.240.030.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0370.0058.740.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.310.0336.3665.17-0.090.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0320.0046.54-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0344.4445.51-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0366.6752.850.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.310.030.0039.69-0.31-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0366.6755.450.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.310.0366.6777.530.100.02
SyracuseACC0.000.0366.6758.330.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0325.0028.59-0.00-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0333.3341.24-0.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0360.0056.900.000.00
UMKCWAC0.000.0322.2242.00-0.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0380.0070.970.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0355.5638.620.00-0.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0325.0044.57-0.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0345.4543.81-0.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0333.3363.11-0.000.01
AmericanPat0.310.0360.0064.750.060.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0377.7870.500.000.01
BYUWCC0.280.0366.6768.290.090.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0377.7868.980.000.01
ColgatePat0.310.0320.0043.07-0.19-0.00
CreightonBE0.000.0375.0051.760.000.00
DrexelCAA0.310.0325.0036.23-0.16-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.310.0328.5741.46-0.13-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.280.030.009.00-0.28-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0336.3644.80-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0366.6772.800.000.01
IUPUISum0.280.0320.0027.11-0.17-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.310.0322.2237.84-0.17-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.0322.2228.76-0.00-0.01
New HampshireAE0.310.0357.1464.570.040.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0342.8636.96-0.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0390.0081.790.000.02
OregonP120.000.0366.6757.860.000.00
SMUAmer0.000.0370.0071.300.000.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0350.0062.120.000.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0355.5655.500.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0333.3340.82-0.00-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.0328.5742.44-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0355.5649.770.00-0.00