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Through games of Jan 20, 2018.


Vanderbilt

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:143.7
Current RPI:142
Expected SOS:7
Current SOS:9
Current Record:7-12
Expected Record:11-20
Current Conf Record:2-5
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-8
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-0
Current OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC Record:5-8
Expected OOC RPI:171
Expected OOC SOS:20



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-1455.00.01%
16-1565.20.24%
15-1677.81.24%
14-1791.64.62%
13-18108.510.95%
12-19126.118.76%
11-20144.426.02%
10-21162.121.67%
9-22178.012.01%
8-23192.13.82%
7-24205.90.65%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Vanderbilt.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Austin Peay (215.2)OVCH73-54W100%0.0
11-13Belmont (82.7)OVCA69-60L0%0.0
11-17UNC Asheville (157.8)BSthH79-76W100%0.0
11-19USC (34.7)P12H89-93L0%0.0
11-23Virginia (4.4)ACCN42-68L0%0.0
11-24Seton Hall (25.8)BEN72-59L0%0.0
11-28Radford (135.1)BSthH74-62W100%0.0
12-3Kansas St. (67.2)B12H79-84L0%0.0
12-6Middle Tennessee (32.9)CUSAH63-66L0%0.0
12-17Arizona St. (31.9)P12A76-64L0%0.0
12-20Houston Baptist (333.6)SlndH81-48W100%0.0
12-22Alcorn St. (342.9)SWACH92-51W100%0.0
12-30Florida (25.9)SECA81-74L0%0.0
1-2Alabama (40.0)SECH76-75W100%0.0
1-6South Carolina (71.0)SECA71-60L0%0.0
1-9Tennessee (23.9)SECH84-92L0%0.0
1-13Kentucky (20.8)SECH67-74L0%0.0
1-16Mississippi St. (111.1)SECA80-62L0%0.0
1-20LSU (103.4)SECH77-71W100%0.0
1-23Tennessee (23.9)SECA0-019%-9.9
1-27TCU (28.3)B12H0-034%-4.6
1-30Kentucky (20.8)SECA0-015%-11.4
2-3Auburn (17.4)SECA0-020%-9.3
2-7Georgia (68.2)SECH0-055%1.3
2-10Arkansas (41.6)SECA0-020%-9.4
2-14Mississippi St. (111.1)SECH0-060%2.9
2-17Florida (25.9)SECH0-031%-5.5
2-20LSU (103.4)SECA0-034%-4.6
2-24Texas A&M (29.2)SECH0-036%-4.0
2-27Missouri (44.8)SECH0-040%-2.7
3-3Mississippi (116.1)SECA0-038%-3.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Vanderbilt's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Vanderbilt's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Vanderbilt.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
VanderbiltSEC26.3526.1025.9328.47-12.69-11.23
KentuckySEC2.923.8172.2266.261.301.24
LSUSEC2.853.7864.7154.600.840.35
FloridaSEC2.773.7872.2270.661.231.56
TennesseeSEC2.773.7870.5967.371.141.31
Mississippi St.SEC2.773.7570.5958.151.140.61
GeorgiaSEC0.282.3066.6756.300.090.29
MississippiSEC0.292.2852.6345.320.02-0.21
AlabamaSEC2.852.2772.2260.951.270.50
South CarolinaSEC2.842.2758.8250.240.500.01
Texas A&MSEC0.422.2768.4263.970.150.64
MissouriSEC0.222.2566.6763.330.070.60
AuburnSEC0.292.2289.4776.940.231.20
ArkansasSEC0.292.2268.4263.680.110.61
BelmontOVC2.861.7270.0073.811.140.82
Kansas St.B122.701.7272.2261.481.200.39
Middle TennesseeCUSA2.761.7270.5973.801.140.82
UNC AshevilleBSth2.781.7052.9457.640.160.26
Austin PeayOVC2.841.6947.0647.68-0.17-0.08
USCP122.701.6970.0067.241.080.58
TCUB120.131.6973.6865.580.060.53
RadfordBSth2.701.6764.7162.960.800.43
Alcorn St.SWAC2.701.6713.3326.45-1.98-0.79
Arizona St.P122.701.6677.7875.311.500.84
VirginiaACC2.701.6494.1284.942.391.15
Houston BaptistSlnd2.691.646.2520.09-2.36-0.98
Seton HallBE2.631.6173.6866.821.250.54
West VirginiaB120.140.2484.2178.170.100.13
Iowa St.B120.150.2161.1147.260.03-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.220.2168.4254.090.080.02
KansasB120.210.2184.2179.740.140.12
Tennessee MartinOVC0.280.1926.3231.52-0.13-0.07
Gardner WebbBSth0.140.1941.1843.41-0.03-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.290.1968.4257.780.110.03
North FloridaASun0.220.1931.5835.15-0.08-0.06
BaylorB120.080.1961.1156.090.020.02
OklahomaB120.130.1877.7867.900.070.07
High PointBSth0.150.1640.0047.86-0.03-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.220.1629.4127.74-0.09-0.07
WinthropBSth0.150.1646.6758.78-0.010.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.210.1670.0068.220.080.06
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.150.1680.0078.860.090.09
UtahP120.130.1661.1158.950.030.03
StanfordP120.200.1655.0050.370.020.00
Texas TechB120.140.1678.9571.810.080.07
TexasB120.070.1663.1657.620.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.220.1417.6517.23-0.14-0.09
Murray St.OVC0.140.1470.5975.930.060.07
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.150.1443.7549.10-0.02-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.140.1457.8953.190.020.01
Georgia TechACC0.150.1352.6343.120.01-0.02
ClemsonACC0.220.1384.2173.210.150.06
MonmouthMAAC0.280.1327.7840.88-0.12-0.02
MarquetteBE0.140.1368.4260.530.050.03
ArizonaP120.140.1380.0078.980.080.08
LipscombASun0.270.1352.9459.360.020.02
LouisvilleACC0.140.1377.7869.360.080.05
UCLAP120.070.1365.0062.040.020.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.220.1110.5316.75-0.18-0.08
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.1116.6724.29-0.05-0.06
CampbellBSth0.070.1143.7545.34-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.150.1120.0028.72-0.09-0.05
LibertyBSth0.070.1152.9457.320.000.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.117.6923.280.00-0.06
Western KentuckyCUSA0.210.1168.4270.810.080.05
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.140.1129.4133.94-0.06-0.04
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.117.6920.09-0.06-0.07
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.140.1136.8432.79-0.04-0.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.210.1142.1143.50-0.03-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.150.1141.1838.46-0.03-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.150.1135.2940.48-0.04-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.140.1170.0060.460.060.02
TroySB0.140.1135.2942.76-0.04-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.1131.5832.720.00-0.04
Rhode IslandA100.280.1183.3381.410.190.07
Green BayHorz0.140.1125.0027.94-0.07-0.05
North CarolinaACC0.150.1180.0075.050.090.05
CaliforniaP120.130.1136.8431.12-0.03-0.04
CincinnatiAmer0.140.1189.4785.520.110.08
ColoradoP120.130.1160.0053.730.030.01
OregonP120.130.1165.0063.830.040.03
Oregon St.P120.130.1157.8950.810.020.00
St. John'sBE0.140.1147.3742.18-0.01-0.02
VillanovaBE0.070.1194.7490.310.070.09
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0921.0539.47-0.05-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0921.0544.26-0.05-0.01
CreightonBE0.210.0875.0070.690.110.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.140.0852.6355.290.010.01
UABCUSA0.070.0861.1164.130.020.02
FurmanSC0.150.0866.6768.500.050.03
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0823.5328.700.00-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.140.0811.1117.96-0.11-0.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.150.0868.4257.770.050.01
Notre DameACC0.070.0863.1661.050.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.070.0844.4441.15-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.140.0825.0028.25-0.07-0.03
DaytonA100.070.0847.3750.95-0.000.00
HoustonAmer0.070.0878.9572.990.040.04
MemphisAmer0.140.0865.0058.490.040.01
MercerSC0.140.0844.4454.89-0.020.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.140.0844.4450.31-0.020.00
SamfordSC0.070.0827.7832.66-0.03-0.03
TempleAmer0.070.0852.6351.730.000.00
DukeACC0.070.0889.4785.190.050.06
Florida St.ACC0.070.0873.6869.610.030.03
WashingtonP120.130.0870.0061.440.050.02
Washington St.P120.130.0850.0042.180.00-0.01
XavierBE0.140.0885.7180.080.100.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0630.0036.48-0.03-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.0636.8444.12-0.02-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0638.8943.43-0.02-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.060.0010.65-0.08-0.05
SouthernSWAC0.000.0627.7840.970.00-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.0645.0049.27-0.01-0.00
LamarSlnd0.080.0650.0054.850.000.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0628.5731.27-0.03-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.0650.0051.480.000.00
UTSACUSA0.080.0641.1839.65-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.080.0641.1847.51-0.01-0.00
IllinoisB100.070.0647.3744.27-0.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.070.0647.0641.45-0.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.150.0657.8966.250.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.070.0668.4263.640.030.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.140.0544.4448.91-0.02-0.00
FIUCUSA0.150.0535.2935.57-0.04-0.02
Miami FLACC0.070.0576.4769.020.040.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0590.4888.940.060.04
San FranciscoWCC0.140.0550.0048.740.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.150.0568.7567.640.050.02
UTEPCUSA0.070.0533.3334.11-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.150.0568.7563.620.050.01
NevadaMWC0.070.0585.7182.070.050.03
PrincetonIvy0.140.0552.9460.270.010.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0511.1117.690.00-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.0510.0019.62-0.06-0.03
Little RockSB0.070.0522.2225.26-0.04-0.03
MassachusettsA100.070.0550.0046.780.00-0.00
MichiganB100.070.0575.0070.270.040.02
PurdueB100.070.0590.4888.380.060.04
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0558.8262.830.010.01
SyracuseACC0.070.0568.4261.270.030.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0522.2227.33-0.04-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.150.0552.9452.230.010.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0556.2556.810.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0547.3745.87-0.00-0.00
LehighPat0.140.0538.8944.75-0.03-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.140.0511.1115.30-0.11-0.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0527.7834.50-0.03-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.140.0530.0039.93-0.06-0.01
UCFAmer0.070.0568.4260.880.030.01
VCUA100.140.0560.0059.690.030.01
WagnerNEC0.070.0564.7164.540.020.02
ButlerBE0.070.0566.6763.070.020.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0552.6347.390.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.000.0542.1134.320.00-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.070.0577.7879.160.040.03
Fort WayneSum0.070.0552.6351.700.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.070.0568.4254.090.020.00
GonzagaWCC0.070.0580.9583.260.040.03
HarvardIvy0.070.0537.5046.63-0.02-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0542.1145.97-0.01-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0577.7871.650.040.02
MinnesotaB100.070.0563.6457.640.020.01
New HampshireAE0.070.0529.4138.15-0.03-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0530.0032.53-0.03-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.060.0510.5318.34-0.05-0.03
SMUAmer0.060.0570.0070.630.030.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0570.5969.610.030.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.070.0566.6766.010.020.02
VermontAE0.070.0573.6877.120.030.03
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0347.0652.51-0.000.00
TulaneAmer0.080.0363.1657.900.020.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.080.0352.9452.620.000.00
DetroitHorz0.080.0321.0525.98-0.04-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.070.0352.6347.360.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.080.0385.0083.180.050.02
New OrleansSlnd0.080.0337.5045.22-0.02-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.037.1414.820.00-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.080.0352.9455.040.000.00
Texas St.SB0.080.0357.8950.210.010.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0323.5325.630.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0342.1132.48-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.070.0352.6351.090.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0337.5037.68-0.02-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0355.5656.710.010.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0344.4446.640.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.070.0380.9576.520.050.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0378.9576.760.000.01
UC DavisBW0.070.0358.8262.450.010.01
VMISC0.070.0325.0024.17-0.04-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0338.8935.35-0.02-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0368.4255.060.030.00
BryantNEC0.000.039.5217.080.00-0.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.070.0327.7838.13-0.03-0.01
DavidsonA100.070.0358.8261.440.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.070.0320.0041.76-0.04-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.070.0343.7540.93-0.01-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0340.0043.340.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.070.0345.0044.46-0.01-0.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0340.0030.870.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.070.0350.0046.260.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.070.0361.1156.830.020.00
AkronMAC0.060.0347.0644.91-0.00-0.00
AmericanPat0.070.0326.3228.14-0.03-0.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0365.0057.870.000.00
BucknellPat0.000.0361.9068.010.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0372.2274.900.000.01
BYUWCC0.070.0380.9576.230.040.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0329.4133.220.00-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0345.0041.340.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.000.0333.3333.360.00-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0323.5332.62-0.03-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0366.6763.420.000.01
George MasonA100.000.0345.0041.350.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.070.0345.0043.49-0.01-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0366.6765.530.000.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0357.8959.470.000.00
IndianaB100.070.0357.8950.680.010.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0344.4446.100.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0383.3381.350.000.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0326.6729.040.00-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0347.3748.17-0.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0345.0047.05-0.01-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0325.0028.020.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0345.0048.560.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0383.3384.230.040.02
NJITASun0.070.0338.8942.60-0.01-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0318.7536.760.00-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0366.6773.240.000.01
Penn St.B100.000.0361.9055.770.000.00
RutgersB100.070.0357.8947.140.01-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0333.3332.96-0.02-0.01
SeattleWAC0.060.0357.8954.500.010.00
South DakotaSum0.000.0373.6872.360.000.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0372.2272.970.000.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0366.6768.700.000.01
TulsaAmer0.070.0355.0053.290.010.00
UMKCWAC0.070.0321.0524.71-0.04-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0360.0062.030.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0345.0045.020.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0364.7159.980.000.01