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Through games of Feb 12, 2016.


Vanderbilt

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:53.1
Current RPI:63
Expected SOS:32
Current SOS:25
Current Record:14-10
Expected Record:19-12
Current Conf Record:6-5
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:72
Expected OOC SOS:33



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-1026.14.00%
20-1135.317.62%
19-1247.532.62%
18-1360.629.34%
17-1473.212.56%
16-1586.73.50%
15-16102.30.35%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Vanderbilt.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Austin Peay (230.5)OVCH80-41W100%0.0
11-16Gardner Webb (221.4)BSthH98-62W100%0.0
11-19Stony Brook (42.0)AEH79-72W100%0.0
11-23St. John's (232.9)BEN92-55W100%0.0
11-24Wake Forest (132.6)ACCN64-86W100%0.0
11-25Kansas (4.0)B12N70-63L0%0.0
12-2Detroit (218.4)HorzH102-52W100%0.0
12-6Baylor (25.5)B12A69-67L0%0.0
12-9Dayton (11.9)A10H67-72L0%0.0
12-19Wofford (179.1)SCH80-56W100%0.0
12-22Purdue (14.6)B10A68-55L0%0.0
12-30Western Michigan (218.5)MACH86-61W100%0.0
1-2LSU (86.5)SECH82-90L0%0.0
1-5Arkansas (106.1)SECA90-85L0%0.0
1-9South Carolina (39.1)SECA69-65L0%0.0
1-12Auburn (167.2)SECH75-57W100%0.0
1-16Alabama (69.4)SECH71-63W100%0.0
1-20Tennessee (112.2)SECA74-88W100%0.0
1-23Kentucky (16.9)SECA76-57L0%0.0
1-26Florida (23.5)SECH60-59W100%0.0
1-30Texas (28.7)B12A72-58L0%0.0
2-4Texas A&M (26.9)SECH77-60W100%0.0
2-6Mississippi (113.5)SECA85-78L0%0.0
2-10Missouri (222.3)SECH86-71W100%0.0
2-13Auburn (167.2)SECA0-085%11.3
2-16Mississippi St. (162.3)SECA0-069%5.2
2-20Georgia (86.7)SECH0-086%11.8
2-23Florida (23.5)SECA0-041%-2.5
2-27Kentucky (16.9)SECH0-057%1.9
3-1Tennessee (112.2)SECH0-085%11.3
3-5Texas A&M (26.9)SECA0-036%-3.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Vanderbilt's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Vanderbilt's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Vanderbilt.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
VanderbiltSEC26.0626.1055.5659.312.904.86
TennesseeSEC2.483.8452.1750.930.110.07
KentuckySEC2.483.8373.9172.701.191.74
FloridaSEC2.473.8169.5768.860.971.44
Texas A&MSEC2.523.8178.2678.331.432.16
AuburnSEC2.483.7840.9137.44-0.45-0.95
LSUSEC2.522.3360.8757.710.550.36
ArkansasSEC2.472.3047.8351.37-0.110.06
AlabamaSEC2.522.2763.6457.910.690.36
GeorgiaSEC0.532.2759.0956.640.100.30
MissouriSEC2.442.2534.7831.28-0.74-0.84
MississippiSEC2.442.2560.8757.570.530.34
South CarolinaSEC2.482.2586.3679.761.801.34
Mississippi St.SEC0.482.2243.4844.19-0.06-0.26
BaylorB122.221.8072.7367.361.010.62
TexasB122.221.7765.2260.940.670.39
KansasB122.221.7781.8278.491.411.01
Gardner WebbBSth2.171.6945.4546.94-0.20-0.10
WoffordSC2.171.6747.8349.84-0.09-0.01
DaytonA102.171.6786.9683.171.611.11
PurdueB102.131.6679.1777.161.240.90
Wake ForestACC2.171.6643.4841.28-0.28-0.29
Austin PeayOVC2.131.6441.6744.38-0.35-0.18
St. John'sBE2.131.6426.0924.24-1.02-0.84
DetroitHorz2.081.6147.6245.57-0.10-0.14
Stony BrookAE2.081.6186.3686.221.521.17
Western MichiganMAC2.081.6133.3333.85-0.69-0.52
Kansas St.B120.310.2958.3356.290.050.04
Oklahoma St.B120.270.2745.8342.30-0.02-0.04
XavierBE0.310.2187.5081.840.230.14
Texas TechB120.220.2160.8755.310.050.02
Iowa St.B120.180.2170.8367.960.070.08
TCUB120.270.2145.8339.36-0.02-0.05
West VirginiaB120.220.2179.1778.100.130.12
OklahomaB120.180.1986.9682.620.130.12
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.180.1757.1457.670.030.03
MercerSC0.220.1666.6767.110.070.06
Georgia TechACC0.170.1654.1751.980.010.01
VermontAE0.130.1452.0054.840.010.01
ClemsonACC0.180.1458.3358.410.030.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.130.1362.5063.450.030.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.170.1376.1972.410.090.06
Northwestern St.Slnd0.180.1317.6526.60-0.11-0.06
ButlerBE0.170.1370.8368.990.070.05
UMBCAE0.180.1123.0825.89-0.10-0.05
FurmanSC0.130.1156.0054.430.020.01
AlbanyAE0.090.1173.0873.770.040.05
Wright St.Horz0.140.1154.1753.810.010.01
Notre DameACC0.130.1170.8367.910.060.04
ChattanoogaSC0.130.1183.3383.710.090.07
SamfordSC0.170.1140.0041.68-0.03-0.02
George WashingtonA100.130.1175.0071.980.070.05
IowaB100.170.1179.1778.890.100.06
NJITASun0.130.1156.0055.640.020.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.130.1113.0415.26-0.09-0.08
DePaulBE0.090.1133.3334.02-0.03-0.03
HarvardIvy0.130.1138.1039.12-0.03-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.090.1160.8760.240.020.02
IndianaB100.130.1180.0075.690.080.06
Seton HallBE0.090.1170.8368.090.040.04
North FloridaASun0.170.1162.5064.110.040.03
DukeACC0.090.1175.0071.810.040.05
Florida St.ACC0.090.1166.6763.330.030.03
Miami FLACC0.090.1182.6177.600.060.06
North Carolina St.ACC0.130.1150.0048.970.00-0.00
RichmondA100.090.1156.5255.820.010.01
SyracuseACC0.130.1168.0064.070.050.03
UCLAP120.130.1154.1752.980.010.01
Michigan St.B100.130.1080.0081.550.080.07
Arizona St.P120.090.1056.0053.630.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.090.1050.0052.880.000.01
GonzagaWCC0.090.1079.1777.510.050.06
NebraskaB100.090.1052.0050.770.000.00
High PointBSth0.090.0957.1459.870.010.02
LibertyBSth0.090.0934.7836.54-0.03-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.140.0948.0048.59-0.01-0.00
OaklandHorz0.050.0965.3865.500.010.03
PresbyterianBSth0.130.0923.8125.48-0.07-0.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.090.0927.2727.81-0.04-0.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.140.0930.4332.24-0.05-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.0950.0045.860.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.090.0940.0043.21-0.02-0.01
ToledoMAC0.090.0960.8762.070.020.02
VMISC0.130.0919.0519.67-0.08-0.05
WinthropBSth0.090.0866.6763.790.030.02
IPFWSum0.130.0870.8368.650.050.03
Murray St.OVC0.040.0847.8350.90-0.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.140.0841.6742.39-0.02-0.01
PittsburghACC0.090.0872.7367.600.040.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.040.0850.0050.500.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.090.0831.8234.54-0.03-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.090.0826.0928.41-0.04-0.04
ArmyPat0.090.0854.1754.290.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.0814.2924.87-0.06-0.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.0860.0057.680.020.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.090.0827.2726.46-0.04-0.04
North CarolinaACC0.130.0883.3378.390.090.05
Cal PolyBW0.090.0828.5734.10-0.04-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0850.0049.320.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0847.8348.57-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.090.0868.1865.190.030.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.090.0842.8641.32-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.130.0864.0057.890.040.01
New MexicoMWC0.090.0858.3360.710.010.02
RutgersB100.130.0821.7420.33-0.07-0.05
LouisvilleACC0.090.0879.1776.000.050.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.040.0883.3381.270.030.05
South FloridaAmer0.090.0820.0019.72-0.05-0.05
MichiganB100.090.0870.8366.750.040.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.0829.1733.08-0.04-0.03
Ohio St.B100.090.0860.0055.570.020.01
BinghamtonAE0.090.0624.0026.42-0.05-0.03
CampbellBSth0.090.0631.8232.07-0.03-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.090.0621.7422.78-0.05-0.03
Green BayHorz0.090.0656.5257.690.010.01
HartfordAE0.090.0624.0024.55-0.05-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.050.0621.7424.59-0.03-0.03
MaineAE0.050.0632.0031.17-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0660.8762.470.010.01
New HampshireAE0.050.0659.0956.880.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0631.8235.12-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.090.0652.1754.090.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.090.0637.5037.68-0.02-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0682.6183.030.030.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.090.0645.4546.07-0.01-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.069.5210.67-0.04-0.05
ColumbiaIvy0.090.0668.1865.570.030.02
HofstraCAA0.090.0666.6766.780.030.02
Loyola MDPat0.090.0633.3335.19-0.03-0.02
AmericanPat0.090.0629.1731.18-0.04-0.02
LehighPat0.090.0639.1342.83-0.02-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.090.0660.8757.170.020.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0647.6249.39-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.080.0639.1341.06-0.02-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0665.2260.710.010.01
The CitadelSC0.040.0630.4329.49-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.040.0616.6719.49-0.03-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.090.0524.0024.16-0.05-0.03
LipscombASun0.090.0528.0030.50-0.04-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.090.0534.7832.89-0.03-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.090.0572.2275.710.040.03
AkronMAC0.090.0582.6181.130.060.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.090.0529.1733.75-0.04-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.090.0565.2264.330.030.02
TroySB0.090.0522.7324.37-0.05-0.03
ColoradoP120.050.0570.8365.570.020.02
CreightonBE0.040.0564.0062.070.010.01
DuquesneA100.090.0560.8756.270.020.01
FordhamA100.090.0552.3850.690.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.090.0556.0052.860.010.00
HawaiiBW0.050.0585.0083.450.030.04
La SalleA100.090.0519.0520.30-0.05-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0568.1867.730.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.0543.4850.67-0.010.00
OregonP120.090.0579.1777.220.050.03
ProvidenceBE0.040.0572.0069.130.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.040.0556.0055.750.010.01
Saint LouisA100.040.0534.7832.39-0.01-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.040.0572.7370.390.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0545.4554.18-0.000.00
UABCUSA0.050.0583.3379.820.030.03
VillanovaBE0.040.0587.5086.850.030.04
Virginia TechACC0.040.0552.0048.910.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.090.0540.9138.83-0.02-0.01
George MasonA100.090.0533.3333.62-0.03-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.090.0555.5652.480.010.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0525.0026.38-0.04-0.02
MassachusettsA100.090.0543.4842.42-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.090.0558.3359.310.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.0538.1037.68-0.02-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.040.0561.9065.340.010.02
Boston UniversityPat0.040.0556.0056.500.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.040.0526.0927.89-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.090.0545.8344.06-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.040.0556.0054.080.010.00
MarshallCUSA0.040.0550.0051.150.000.00
MarylandB100.040.0587.5083.680.030.04
NavyPat0.040.0564.0064.470.010.02
NorthwesternB100.040.0564.0062.090.010.01
StanfordP120.090.0547.6244.07-0.00-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.040.0521.7422.42-0.02-0.03
WashingtonP120.090.0562.5060.140.020.01
WisconsinB100.040.0562.5056.990.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.050.0373.6875.880.020.02
UCFAmer0.050.0350.0044.640.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.040.0368.0066.640.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0354.1754.420.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.050.0372.0071.330.020.01
Morehead St.OVC0.040.0352.1753.440.000.00
OhioMAC0.050.0365.2263.630.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0326.9228.60-0.00-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.050.0330.4328.20-0.02-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0377.2773.930.030.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0329.1726.68-0.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.040.0352.1754.970.000.00
DavidsonA100.040.0361.9058.180.010.00
DrexelCAA0.050.0313.0416.41-0.03-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0354.5555.550.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.050.0341.6739.59-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0350.0054.220.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0360.0062.260.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0337.5037.41-0.00-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.040.0380.7781.890.030.02
MontanaBSky0.050.0360.0062.700.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0365.2268.610.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.040.0323.0823.85-0.02-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0325.0033.24-0.00-0.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0363.6458.770.010.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.039.0917.13-0.04-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0369.5770.090.020.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0330.0031.76-0.02-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.040.0340.0043.49-0.01-0.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0336.0034.84-0.00-0.01
TulsaAmer0.050.0366.6764.730.020.01
UC IrvineBW0.050.0369.5770.020.020.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0328.5732.73-0.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.0370.8371.030.000.01
VirginiaACC0.040.0383.3378.460.030.02
WagnerNEC0.040.0360.8762.520.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0373.9176.700.020.01
William & MaryCAA0.040.0368.1867.120.020.01
Appalachian St.SB0.040.0325.0028.14-0.02-0.01
ArizonaP120.040.0380.0078.730.030.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.040.0324.0025.68-0.02-0.01
BradleyMVC0.040.0312.0011.95-0.03-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.040.0360.8758.910.010.00
ConnecticutAmer0.040.0370.8370.130.020.01
EvansvilleMVC0.040.0372.0073.080.020.01
Georgia St.SB0.040.0355.0053.660.000.00
HoustonAmer0.040.0370.8367.980.020.01
HowardMEAC0.040.0336.3638.95-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.040.0338.4638.50-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.040.0372.7370.510.020.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.040.0322.2231.13-0.02-0.01
MinnesotaB100.040.0325.0027.25-0.02-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.040.0358.3358.580.010.00
Old DominionCUSA0.040.0358.3363.160.010.01
Penn St.B100.040.0350.0046.760.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.040.0336.3636.29-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.040.0362.5057.720.010.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.040.0368.1871.340.020.01
UTSACUSA0.040.0313.0412.96-0.03-0.02