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Through games of Nov 18, 2017.


Vanderbilt

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:89.2
Current RPI:261
Expected SOS:17
Current SOS:296
Current Record:2-1
Expected Record:15-15
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:2-1
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:84
Expected OOC SOS:24



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-79.30.03%
22-814.30.18%
21-923.00.76%
20-1028.62.01%
19-1137.53.98%
18-1247.07.21%
17-1358.311.90%
16-1471.115.62%
15-1586.016.67%
14-16102.015.65%
13-17119.212.33%
12-18137.07.12%
11-19154.93.91%
10-20172.31.74%
9-21189.10.63%
8-22202.00.19%
7-23225.70.03%
6-24235.70.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Vanderbilt.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Austin Peay (290.1)OVCH73-54W100%0.0
11-13Belmont (80.1)OVCA69-60L0%0.0
11-17UNC Asheville (126.6)BSthH79-76W100%0.0
11-19USC (23.2)P12H0-039%-3.3
11-23Virginia (15.8)ACCN0-022%-9.2
11-28Radford (222.3)BSthH0-093%17.6
12-3Kansas St. (67.2)B12H0-043%-2.3
12-6Middle Tennessee (60.8)CUSAH0-066%5.1
12-17Arizona St. (66.7)P12A0-035%-4.7
12-20Houston Baptist (247.3)SlndH0-095%19.4
12-22Alcorn St. (317.1)SWACH0-098%25.1
12-30Florida (14.6)SECA0-012%-14.2
1-2Alabama (33.7)SECH0-046%-1.1
1-6South Carolina (64.8)SECA0-034%-5.1
1-9Tennessee (96.3)SECH0-061%3.4
1-13Kentucky (15.3)SECH0-032%-5.5
1-16Mississippi St. (134.2)SECA0-050%-0.0
1-20LSU (132.9)SECH0-071%6.6
1-23Tennessee (96.3)SECA0-041%-2.6
1-27TCU (44.2)B12H0-043%-2.1
1-30Kentucky (15.3)SECA0-017%-11.5
2-3Auburn (91.7)SECA0-044%-1.9
2-7Georgia (93.5)SECH0-060%3.0
2-10Arkansas (31.4)SECA0-022%-9.2
2-14Mississippi St. (134.2)SECH0-069%6.0
2-17Florida (14.6)SECH0-025%-8.2
2-20LSU (132.9)SECA0-052%0.6
2-24Texas A&M (19.6)SECH0-035%-4.7
2-27Missouri (59.7)SECH0-053%0.9
3-3Mississippi (78.4)SECA0-042%-2.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Vanderbilt's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Vanderbilt's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Vanderbilt.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
VanderbiltSEC35.4226.1566.6744.7211.81-2.76
KentuckySEC0.003.9775.0071.590.001.71
LSUSEC0.003.93100.0046.650.00-0.26
FloridaSEC0.003.93100.0080.120.002.37
TennesseeSEC0.003.93100.0048.310.00-0.13
Mississippi St.SEC0.003.90100.0051.840.000.14
GeorgiaSEC0.002.41100.0053.730.000.18
MississippiSEC0.002.38100.0053.650.000.17
South CarolinaSEC0.002.3875.0058.660.000.41
AlabamaSEC0.002.38100.0061.580.000.55
Texas A&MSEC0.002.38100.0071.200.001.01
MissouriSEC0.002.3466.6758.290.000.39
AuburnSEC0.002.3266.6750.480.000.02
ArkansasSEC0.002.32100.0070.940.000.97
BelmontOVC16.671.7966.6770.585.560.74
Kansas St.B120.001.78100.0063.110.000.47
UNC AshevilleBSth16.671.760.0066.90-16.670.59
Austin PeayOVC16.671.750.0030.99-16.67-0.67
Middle TennesseeCUSA2.081.7566.6769.660.690.69
TCUB120.001.75100.0061.300.000.40
Alcorn St.SWAC0.001.730.0038.470.00-0.40
RadfordBSth0.001.7250.0047.600.00-0.08
Arizona St.P120.001.72100.0062.680.000.44
USCP120.001.72100.0073.640.000.81
VirginiaACC4.171.70100.0074.014.170.81
Houston BaptistSlnd2.081.690.0040.25-2.08-0.33
Iowa St.B120.000.2350.0038.730.00-0.05
Oklahoma St.B120.000.23100.0059.540.000.04
KansasB120.000.22100.0082.910.000.15
West VirginiaB120.000.2266.6771.200.000.09
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.2025.0050.070.000.00
North FloridaASun0.000.200.0036.690.00-0.05
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.200.0043.690.00-0.03
Virginia TechACC0.000.2075.0061.940.000.05
BaylorB120.000.20100.0061.110.000.04
OklahomaB120.000.20100.0060.070.000.04
High PointBSth0.000.1833.3347.540.00-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.180.0016.000.00-0.12
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.18100.0069.350.000.07
WinthropBSth0.000.170.0055.380.000.02
UtahP120.000.17100.0067.160.000.06
StanfordP120.000.1775.0049.860.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1750.0068.280.000.06
TexasB120.000.17100.0063.830.000.05
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.150.0047.180.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.150.0057.520.000.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.1550.0066.530.000.05
LongwoodBSth0.000.150.0017.060.00-0.10
ClemsonACC0.000.14100.0054.960.000.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1450.0039.640.00-0.03
LipscombASun0.000.1433.3349.220.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.000.14100.0083.700.000.09
UCLAP120.000.14100.0064.910.000.04
Texas TechB120.000.14100.0062.630.000.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.120.0046.000.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.120.0045.040.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.120.0029.630.00-0.05
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.120.0022.610.00-0.06
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.120.0026.180.00-0.06
Southern MissCUSA0.000.120.0034.600.00-0.04
CampbellBSth0.000.120.0051.410.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.1233.3335.310.00-0.03
LibertyBSth0.000.1233.3360.630.000.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.120.0046.410.00-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.1233.3341.010.00-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.1233.3329.980.00-0.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.120.0036.490.00-0.03
CaliforniaP120.000.1166.6740.170.00-0.02
ColoradoP120.000.11100.0052.860.000.01
OregonP120.000.11100.0076.200.000.06
Oregon St.P120.000.1166.6742.260.00-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.1150.0052.380.000.01
Green BayHorz0.000.110.0044.830.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.11100.0082.350.000.07
TroySB0.000.1133.3346.410.00-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.11100.0066.990.000.04
MonmouthMAAC0.000.1166.6759.740.000.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.090.0033.850.00-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.090.0050.360.000.00
UABCUSA0.000.09100.0078.750.000.05
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.09100.0063.590.000.02
FurmanSC0.000.0950.0059.440.000.02
HoustonAmer0.000.0966.6753.670.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.09100.0078.160.000.05
SamfordSC0.000.0933.3347.970.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.0925.0035.000.00-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.000.090.0031.810.00-0.03
MemphisAmer0.000.0950.0050.670.000.00
MercerSC0.000.0975.0076.250.000.05
TempleAmer0.000.09100.0056.600.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.090.0039.010.00-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.09100.0068.200.000.03
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0933.3336.610.00-0.02
WashingtonP122.080.0950.0046.810.00-0.01
Washington St.P120.000.09100.0041.780.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0833.3353.520.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0866.6762.150.000.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.060.0023.910.00-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.060.0035.610.00-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0666.6773.200.000.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.060.0032.770.00-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.060.0044.500.00-0.01
LamarSlnd0.000.06100.0065.580.000.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0666.6749.100.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.060.0023.170.00-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0018.970.00-0.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0650.0043.710.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0044.630.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0633.3338.350.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.060.0024.970.00-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.000.060.0051.010.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.060.0051.690.000.00
IllinoisB100.000.06100.0059.240.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.06100.0039.920.00-0.01
MichiganB100.000.06100.0061.710.000.01
PurdueB100.000.06100.0085.360.000.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0650.0050.360.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.0675.0064.570.000.02
YaleIvy0.000.0625.0054.930.000.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.060.0035.130.00-0.02
MassachusettsA100.000.0650.0042.160.00-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0666.6756.400.000.01
NevadaMWC0.000.06100.0078.910.000.03
LehighPat0.000.0666.6751.580.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.06100.0057.270.000.01
New HampshireAE0.000.060.0048.110.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.000.06100.0062.240.000.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.060.0056.560.000.01
WoffordSC0.000.060.0039.740.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.06100.0061.780.000.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0633.3352.000.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.060.0024.440.00-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.000.060.0023.260.00-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.060.0025.140.00-0.03
SMUAmer0.000.06100.0076.260.000.03
UC IrvineBW0.000.0633.3353.300.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0633.3350.220.000.00
MinnesotaB100.000.06100.0071.700.000.02
Rhode IslandA104.170.0650.0073.230.000.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0018.400.00-0.04
Little RockSB0.000.060.0037.050.00-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.060.0031.910.00-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0533.3357.840.000.01
Fort WayneSum0.000.0566.6756.330.000.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0533.3354.200.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0550.0048.410.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0550.0060.430.000.01
VermontAE0.000.0566.6774.120.000.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.030.0036.830.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.030.0045.640.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0067.460.000.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.030.0032.130.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0350.0077.820.000.02
New OrleansSlnd0.000.030.0042.810.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0350.0036.640.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0366.6763.220.000.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.030.0022.920.00-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0375.0072.950.000.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0333.3336.410.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0333.3348.640.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.030.0044.130.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.000.0333.3346.090.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.000.03100.0054.140.000.00
BryantNEC0.000.030.0030.230.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0333.3334.490.00-0.01
ElonCAA0.000.0333.3350.840.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.03100.0051.900.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0350.0051.070.000.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0350.0050.870.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0366.6748.280.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.000.03100.0059.870.000.01
VMISC0.000.0333.3327.450.00-0.01
WagnerNEC0.000.0366.6749.940.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.000.03100.0060.370.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0375.0045.290.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.000.030.0061.460.000.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.030.0042.670.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0333.3347.670.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0366.6742.170.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.000.03100.0070.080.000.01
DukeACC0.000.03100.0083.580.000.02
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0350.0060.060.000.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.030.0048.070.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.030.0028.170.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.03100.0074.500.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.03100.0054.680.000.00
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0073.730.000.01
PacificWCC0.000.030.0033.520.00-0.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0333.3334.560.00-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0088.360.000.02
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0350.0062.630.000.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.030.0042.340.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.000.03100.0054.590.000.00
VCUA100.000.0366.6766.590.000.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.030.0021.380.00-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0333.3353.190.000.00
WisconsinB100.000.0366.6766.970.000.01
WyomingMWC0.000.03100.0057.360.000.00
AmericanPat0.000.030.0030.350.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0375.0048.770.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.03100.0061.010.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.03100.0056.360.000.00
CornellIvy0.000.0333.3334.680.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0375.0048.930.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0350.0065.140.000.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0333.3343.810.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0350.0059.190.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0333.3346.880.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.03100.0060.010.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.030.0035.760.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0350.0050.570.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.030.0042.850.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.03100.0070.960.000.01
South DakotaSum0.000.0366.6767.630.000.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0366.6761.500.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0350.0048.690.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.000.030.0026.150.00-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0350.0035.330.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0333.3335.210.00-0.01
BYUWCC0.000.0366.6767.320.000.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.03100.0071.560.000.01