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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Vanderbilt

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:120.0
Current RPI:120
Expected SOS:75
Current SOS:75
Current Record:15-16
Expected Record:15-16
Current Conf Record:7-12
Expected Conf Record:7-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-1
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:100
Expected OOC SOS:121



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-16120.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Vanderbilt.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Georgia St. (76.0)SBH86-80W100%0.0
11-15Lipscomb (209.0)ASunH80-69W100%0.0
11-19Butler (150.0)BEA85-77L0%0.0
11-22Providence (40.0)BEN60-67L0%0.0
11-23Morgan St. (225.0)MEACN66-75W100%0.0
11-25Loyola Marymount (179.0)WCCN77-68W100%0.0
12-2Texas (36.0)B12A70-64L0%0.0
12-5Marshall (276.0)CUSAH69-67W100%0.0
12-17Austin Peay (305.0)OVCH58-56W100%0.0
12-21Georgia Tech (157.0)ACCH76-63W100%0.0
12-30Saint Louis (27.0)A10H49-57L0%0.0
1-4Northeastern (222.0)CAAH79-49W100%0.0
1-7Alabama (124.0)SECA68-63L0%0.0
1-11Kentucky (17.0)SECH62-71L0%0.0
1-16Missouri (49.0)SECH78-75W100%0.0
1-18LSU (83.0)SECA81-58L0%0.0
1-22Mississippi (94.0)SECH52-63L0%0.0
1-25Texas A&M (148.0)SECA55-66W100%0.0
1-29Georgia (74.0)SECA54-59W100%0.0
2-1Mississippi St. (245.0)SECH55-49W100%0.0
2-5Tennessee (42.0)SECH64-60W100%0.0
2-8Arkansas (77.0)SECH75-77L0%0.0
2-13South Carolina (140.0)SECA65-59L0%0.0
2-15Texas A&M (148.0)SECH57-54W100%0.0
2-19Missouri (49.0)SECA67-64L0%0.0
2-22Auburn (169.0)SECA59-67W100%0.0
2-25Florida (1.0)SECH54-57L0%0.0
3-1Tennessee (42.0)SECA76-38L0%0.0
3-6LSU (83.0)SECH51-57L0%0.0
3-8Mississippi (94.0)SECA65-62L0%0.0
3-12Mississippi St. (245.0)SECN68-82L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Vanderbilt's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Vanderbilt's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Vanderbilt.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
VanderbiltSEC26.0826.0844.5344.53-2.86-2.86
Mississippi St.SEC3.873.8741.9441.94-0.62-0.62
MississippiSEC3.873.8754.8454.840.370.37
Texas A&MSEC3.873.8756.6756.670.520.52
MissouriSEC3.853.8567.7467.741.371.37
LSUSEC3.853.8556.6756.670.510.51
TennesseeSEC3.853.8563.3363.331.031.03
GeorgiaSEC2.382.3861.2961.290.540.54
KentuckySEC2.382.3869.7069.700.940.94
South CarolinaSEC2.372.3739.3939.39-0.50-0.50
FloridaSEC2.342.3493.9493.942.052.05
AlabamaSEC2.312.3136.6736.67-0.62-0.62
ArkansasSEC2.262.2664.5264.520.660.66
AuburnSEC2.252.2548.2848.28-0.08-0.08
ButlerBE1.711.7141.3841.38-0.29-0.29
ProvidenceBE1.691.6966.6766.670.560.56
Georgia TechACC1.691.6950.0050.000.000.00
LipscombASun1.671.6750.0050.000.000.00
Austin PeayOVC1.641.6437.0437.04-0.43-0.43
Georgia St.SB1.641.6476.6776.670.870.87
MarshallCUSA1.641.6430.0030.00-0.65-0.65
Loyola MarymountWCC1.611.6140.0040.00-0.32-0.32
Morgan St.MEAC1.611.6150.0050.000.000.00
NortheasternCAA1.611.6135.4835.48-0.47-0.47
Saint LouisA101.611.6180.0080.000.970.97
TexasB121.611.6168.7568.750.600.60
XavierBE0.230.2362.5062.500.060.06
East Tennessee St.ASun0.190.1953.1253.120.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.170.1730.7730.77-0.07-0.07
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.170.1720.6920.69-0.10-0.10
GeorgetownBE0.150.1554.8454.840.010.01
Seton HallBE0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.150.1534.6234.62-0.05-0.05
St. John'sBE0.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
ClemsonACC0.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
West VirginiaB120.150.1553.1253.120.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.130.1313.7913.79-0.10-0.10
USC UpstateASun0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
MercerASun0.130.1374.1974.190.060.06
Kennesaw St.ASun0.130.1313.7913.79-0.09-0.09
Florida A&MMEAC0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Western KentuckySB0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.130.1325.9325.93-0.06-0.06
DePaulBE0.130.1336.3636.36-0.03-0.03
DaytonA100.130.1369.7069.700.050.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.130.1325.8125.81-0.06-0.06
OklahomaB120.130.1371.8871.880.050.05
Texas TechB120.130.1343.7543.75-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
Boston CollegeACC0.120.1222.5822.58-0.07-0.07
North Carolina St.ACC0.120.1261.7661.760.030.03
BaylorB120.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
Murray St.OVC0.110.1159.2659.260.020.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.110.1120.6920.69-0.06-0.06
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
BelmontOVC0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
Arkansas St.SB0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
MemphisAmer0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
BYUWCC0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
Wichita St.MVC0.100.10100.00100.000.100.10
CharlotteCUSA0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.100.1028.5728.57-0.04-0.04
DrexelCAA0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
UABCUSA0.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
MarquetteBE0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
VillanovaBE0.100.1087.5087.500.080.08
TroySB0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
RiceCUSA0.100.1017.8617.86-0.06-0.06
IllinoisB100.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
Rhode IslandA100.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.100.1030.3030.30-0.04-0.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
Kansas St.B120.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
TCUB120.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.080.0848.1548.15-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
VCUA100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
UTSACUSA0.080.0822.2222.22-0.04-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Texas St.SB0.080.0820.6920.69-0.04-0.04
North TexasCUSA0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0872.7372.730.030.03
TowsonCAA0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
UTEPCUSA0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Iowa St.B120.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
Arkansas Little RockSB0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
DelawareCAA0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
SMUAmer0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
RichmondA100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
DukeACC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0717.8617.86-0.05-0.05
OregonP120.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Penn St.B100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
VirginiaACC0.070.0782.3582.350.050.05
Wake ForestACC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
MarylandACC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
AkronMAC0.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
KansasB120.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
North CarolinaACC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0583.8783.870.040.04
PacificWCC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
St. BonaventureA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
George WashingtonA100.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
High PointBSth0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
TulaneCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
WoffordSC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0593.1093.100.040.04
BuffaloMAC0.050.0564.2964.290.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
William & MaryCAA0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
WisconsinB100.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
YaleIvy0.050.0551.8551.850.000.00
TempleAmer0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
IUPUISum0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
NevadaMWC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Michigan St.B100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Boise St.MWC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
NJITind0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.030.0370.3770.370.010.01
PurdueB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
ElonSC0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
FordhamA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
OhioMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Oral RobertsSlnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
TulsaCUSA0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SC0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
ColoradoP120.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
DavidsonSC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0386.2186.210.020.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
NebraskaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.020.0214.8114.81-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
SyracuseACC0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.020.0251.8551.850.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleAmer0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
MaineAE0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
VermontAE0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01