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Through games of Dec 6, 2016.


Vanderbilt

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:74.8
Current RPI:95
Expected SOS:5
Current SOS:30
Current Record:5-4
Expected Record:14-17
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-0
Current OOC Record:5-4
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:78
Expected OOC SOS:5



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-915.50.02%
21-1018.90.20%
20-1123.70.68%
19-1229.62.04%
18-1336.85.05%
17-1445.19.21%
16-1554.914.48%
15-1666.017.97%
14-1778.718.23%
13-1892.014.99%
12-19106.89.14%
11-20121.55.18%
10-21138.92.07%
9-22152.00.57%
8-23170.60.14%
7-24170.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Vanderbilt.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Marquette (51.7)BEN71-95L0%0.0
11-15Belmont (107.2)OVCH80-66W100%0.0
11-18Norfolk St. (309.9)MEACH75-52W100%0.0
11-21Bucknell (94.2)PatH72-75L0%0.0
11-24Butler (14.3)BEN66-76L0%0.0
11-25Santa Clara (246.4)WCCN66-76W100%0.0
11-29Tennessee St. (96.9)OVCH83-59W100%0.0
12-3Minnesota (40.0)B10N56-52L0%0.0
12-6High Point (245.0)BSthH90-63W100%0.0
12-8Middle Tennessee (51.6)CUSAA0-046%-1.1
12-17Chattanooga (78.8)SCH0-068%5.7
12-21Dayton (38.8)A10A0-029%-6.5
12-29LSU (101.1)SECA0-051%0.4
1-4Auburn (86.4)SECH0-066%4.8
1-7Alabama (119.3)SECA0-044%-1.7
1-10Kentucky (10.0)SECH0-020%-10.1
1-14Tennessee (112.4)SECH0-066%4.9
1-17Georgia (71.0)SECA0-039%-3.3
1-21Florida (11.5)SECA0-016%-11.7
1-24Arkansas (35.0)SECH0-048%-0.7
1-28Iowa St. (25.8)B12H0-025%-8.3
1-31Texas A&M (43.5)SECA0-025%-7.9
2-4Mississippi (121.1)SECH0-075%8.0
2-7Arkansas (35.0)SECA0-028%-7.0
2-11Missouri (170.4)SECA0-055%1.5
2-16Texas A&M (43.5)SECH0-044%-1.7
2-18South Carolina (20.6)SECH0-039%-3.4
2-22Tennessee (112.4)SECA0-045%-1.4
2-25Mississippi St. (155.0)SECH0-078%9.3
2-28Kentucky (10.0)SECA0-09%-16.4
3-4Florida (11.5)SECH0-032%-5.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Vanderbilt's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Vanderbilt's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Vanderbilt.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
VanderbiltSEC28.0926.1043.5942.96-3.60-3.67
FloridaSEC0.403.8477.7872.740.221.75
KentuckySEC0.003.8487.5081.980.002.45
ArkansasSEC0.313.8487.5069.520.231.50
TennesseeSEC0.003.8150.0044.720.00-0.40
Texas A&MSEC0.003.8171.4365.500.001.18
GeorgiaSEC0.312.2757.1451.490.040.07
Mississippi St.SEC0.402.2575.0048.410.20-0.07
MississippiSEC0.002.2575.0048.750.00-0.06
LSUSEC0.002.2571.4347.660.00-0.11
South CarolinaSEC0.002.25100.0078.770.001.29
MissouriSEC0.002.2562.5044.830.00-0.23
AlabamaSEC0.002.2257.1451.610.000.07
AuburnSEC0.002.2085.7158.040.000.35
BelmontOVC5.561.7566.6766.981.850.59
Tennessee St.OVC5.861.73100.0072.615.860.78
ButlerBE6.231.72100.0073.966.230.82
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.401.7087.5076.490.300.90
MarquetteBE5.561.6975.0063.012.780.44
Norfolk St.MEAC6.181.690.0037.72-6.18-0.42
BucknellPat6.301.6766.6769.552.100.65
ChattanoogaSC0.001.6775.0076.180.000.87
MinnesotaB105.561.6687.5065.814.170.53
Santa ClaraWCC5.951.6437.5033.92-1.49-0.53
DaytonA100.001.6471.4373.360.000.77
High PointBSth5.561.6142.8646.53-0.79-0.11
Iowa St.B120.001.6175.0071.190.000.68
GonzagaWCC0.000.19100.0092.200.000.16
Seton HallBE0.000.1975.0054.480.000.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.1750.0050.980.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1725.0027.74-0.00-0.08
LipscombASun1.190.1711.1132.47-0.93-0.06
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1783.3379.920.000.10
TexasB120.000.1650.0038.730.00-0.04
North FloridaASun0.000.1612.5034.49-0.00-0.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1550.0045.920.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.1516.6738.87-0.00-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.000.1433.3336.67-0.00-0.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.140.0026.22-0.00-0.07
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1475.0055.480.000.02
MercerSC0.000.1442.8647.68-0.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.1387.5081.910.000.09
ArizonaP120.660.1377.7870.290.360.05
XavierBE0.000.1387.5070.880.000.06
CreightonBE0.000.13100.0076.540.000.07
St. John'sBE0.310.1344.4436.20-0.03-0.04
KansasB120.000.1388.8977.470.000.07
WisconsinB100.000.1377.7876.550.000.07
OklahomaB120.000.1371.4348.030.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.310.1311.1149.12-0.24-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.310.1128.5723.02-0.13-0.06
Murray St.OVC0.000.1150.0060.950.000.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.1120.0038.50-0.00-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.000.1128.5724.39-0.00-0.06
Western KentuckyCUSA0.400.1137.5035.03-0.10-0.03
ClemsonACC0.350.1171.4354.560.150.01
VCUA100.000.1175.0072.930.000.05
Virginia TechACC0.350.1185.7162.500.250.03
DuquesneA100.000.1140.0039.19-0.00-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.1175.0070.350.000.04
DePaulBE0.000.1171.4337.680.00-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.000.1155.5647.600.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.000.1188.8956.710.000.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.1120.0042.14-0.00-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.1177.7859.940.000.02
VillanovaBE0.000.11100.0084.740.000.07
West VirginiaB120.000.1185.7183.250.000.07
Texas TechB120.000.1187.5061.660.000.02
AmericanPat0.000.1112.5028.64-0.00-0.05
Oklahoma St.B120.000.1171.4354.010.000.01
UCLAP120.000.11100.0086.650.000.08
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1185.7175.250.000.05
Michigan St.B100.000.1060.0058.780.000.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.1025.0055.44-0.000.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0957.1449.640.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0950.0042.770.00-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.350.0971.4355.570.150.01
Rhode IslandA100.400.0966.6770.400.130.03
VMISC0.000.090.0016.56-0.00-0.06
WinthropBSth0.000.0950.0071.340.000.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0833.3351.98-0.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.080.0019.08-0.00-0.05
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0862.5071.850.000.04
WoffordSC0.000.080.0034.69-0.00-0.03
FurmanSC0.000.0842.8657.52-0.000.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0850.0030.320.00-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.400.0842.8633.51-0.06-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.000.0862.5053.550.000.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0862.5074.160.000.04
Saint LouisA100.000.0825.0023.99-0.00-0.04
CanisiusMAAC0.400.0837.5044.42-0.10-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0828.5731.07-0.00-0.03
DukeACC0.000.0890.0080.060.000.05
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0825.0038.98-0.00-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0875.0066.120.000.03
PortlandWCC0.000.0857.1450.730.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.08100.0089.590.000.06
NavyPat0.350.0833.3338.56-0.12-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.350.0857.1459.020.050.01
PurdueB100.000.0877.7877.640.000.04
NorthwesternB100.350.0875.0066.090.170.03
FIUCUSA0.000.0814.2935.05-0.00-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.0857.1436.370.00-0.02
OregonP120.000.0875.0072.800.000.04
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0820.0017.37-0.00-0.05
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0833.3340.37-0.00-0.02
BaylorB120.000.08100.0076.070.000.04
Georgia St.SB0.000.0850.0061.350.000.02
MichiganB100.310.0877.7865.840.170.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.930.0816.6740.32-0.62-0.02
TCUB120.000.08100.0060.950.000.02
UABCUSA0.000.0850.0059.840.000.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0862.5050.630.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.0837.5047.44-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0875.0075.180.000.04
LehighPat0.000.0837.5061.81-0.000.02
Miami FLACC0.000.0877.7866.740.000.03
Florida St.ACC0.310.0888.8967.470.240.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.310.0857.1449.420.04-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.310.0862.5067.590.080.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0642.8638.35-0.00-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0625.0030.02-0.00-0.02
CampbellBSth0.000.0642.8639.64-0.00-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0614.2942.77-0.00-0.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0628.5746.79-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0620.0021.92-0.00-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.350.0625.0041.19-0.17-0.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0628.5734.49-0.00-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0612.5031.01-0.00-0.02
SamfordSC0.000.0662.5056.520.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.710.0611.1120.27-0.55-0.03
UC DavisBW0.710.0650.0045.660.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.350.0612.5030.51-0.26-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0650.0045.130.00-0.01
HowardMEAC0.310.0616.6743.53-0.21-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.710.0644.4438.15-0.08-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0683.3377.290.000.03
DavidsonA100.000.0571.4362.990.000.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0555.5642.150.00-0.01
La SalleA100.280.0557.1456.540.040.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0571.4358.170.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0557.1444.830.00-0.01
RichmondA100.280.0550.0048.500.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0542.8645.34-0.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0516.6730.09-0.00-0.02
BYUWCC0.000.0562.5067.080.000.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0525.0043.29-0.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0587.5082.440.000.03
DenverSum0.000.0542.8645.65-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0528.5738.92-0.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0542.8650.98-0.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0557.1472.530.000.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0525.0045.82-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0562.5066.500.000.02
PacificWCC0.000.0542.8645.98-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.0537.5031.15-0.00-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0585.7153.770.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0560.0062.420.000.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0537.5047.57-0.00-0.00
USCP120.000.05100.0076.400.000.03
UTEPCUSA0.000.0520.0035.46-0.00-0.02
VermontAE0.000.0562.5071.400.000.02
IllinoisB100.000.0566.6751.140.000.00
IndianaB100.000.0587.5074.510.000.03
IowaB100.000.0544.4438.41-0.00-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.310.0571.4363.080.130.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0575.0056.270.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.0571.4357.210.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0544.4441.55-0.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.280.0577.7855.180.150.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0555.5637.870.00-0.01
ArmyPat0.000.0542.8650.29-0.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0542.8655.07-0.000.01
ColgatePat0.000.0512.5030.11-0.00-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0557.1471.170.000.02
Fort WayneSum0.000.0562.5070.890.000.02
HofstraCAA0.000.0555.5643.870.00-0.01
LafayettePat0.000.0542.8635.40-0.00-0.02
Little RockSB0.000.0566.6761.400.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.0587.5075.690.000.03
Loyola MDPat0.000.0542.8645.85-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.000.0587.5059.030.000.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0577.7862.010.000.01
Penn St.B100.000.0566.6746.170.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0550.0057.950.000.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0312.5033.31-0.00-0.01
Green BayHorz0.000.0337.5048.85-0.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0337.5037.96-0.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0375.0050.980.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0325.0040.78-0.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0017.16-0.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0312.5037.11-0.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.350.0350.0041.460.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0022.47-0.00-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0316.6729.83-0.00-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.400.0371.4358.830.170.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0034.54-0.00-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0325.0035.75-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0020.63-0.00-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.400.0357.1453.860.060.00
FordhamA100.000.0350.0041.640.00-0.00
George MasonA100.000.0362.5046.490.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0362.5058.130.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0013.32-0.00-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.0350.0050.170.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.000.0350.0056.890.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0366.6761.690.000.01
DrakeMVC0.000.030.0020.21-0.00-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.310.0357.1443.930.04-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.310.030.0038.78-0.31-0.01
IUPUISum0.310.0333.3351.57-0.100.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0337.5028.47-0.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0025.17-0.00-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0377.7872.210.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0337.5050.92-0.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0333.3331.35-0.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0385.7177.000.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0325.0023.62-0.00-0.01
PittsburghACC0.310.0375.0048.980.15-0.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0375.0070.570.000.01
San Jose St.MWC0.310.0350.0040.690.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0357.1433.200.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.0325.0026.46-0.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0362.5062.080.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0350.0066.380.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0312.5023.82-0.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.310.0344.4453.29-0.030.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.030.0031.31-0.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.0385.7175.800.000.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0355.5649.660.00-0.00
UtahP120.350.0380.0058.220.210.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0325.0029.90-0.00-0.01
Washington St.P120.000.0342.8629.20-0.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0377.7886.650.000.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0357.1429.760.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0337.5025.74-0.00-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0342.8644.90-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.280.0362.5055.890.070.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0342.8643.55-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0362.5052.400.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.280.0322.2232.01-0.15-0.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0325.0048.70-0.00-0.00
NJITASun0.310.0344.4451.58-0.030.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0342.8645.50-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.030.0022.75-0.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0320.0060.00-0.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.280.0330.0045.49-0.11-0.00
RutgersB100.000.0387.5050.250.000.00
SienaMAAC0.000.0333.3350.05-0.000.00