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Through games of Jan 21, 2018.


Temple

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:61.5
Current RPI:46
Expected SOS:17
Current SOS:3
Current Record:10-9
Expected Record:16-14
Current Conf Record:2-5
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-1
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:25
Expected OOC SOS:18



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-919.00.01%
20-1022.70.15%
19-1131.31.58%
18-1238.96.36%
17-1347.216.41%
16-1455.926.75%
15-1565.625.99%
14-1677.115.81%
13-1791.05.77%
12-18107.21.09%
11-19123.90.07%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Temple.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Old Dominion (73.6)CUSAN76-65W100%0.0
11-17Auburn (17.9)SECN88-74W100%0.0
11-19Clemson (14.0)ACCN60-67W100%0.0
11-26La Salle (182.0)A10A87-83L0%0.0
11-30South Carolina (70.8)SECN76-60W100%0.0
12-3George Washington (200.4)A10N71-67L0%0.0
12-6Wisconsin (128.8)B10H59-55W100%0.0
12-9Saint Joseph's (150.4)A10H81-78W100%0.0
12-13Villanova (1.9)BEH67-87L0%0.0
12-16Drexel (271.0)CAAH63-60W100%0.0
12-22Georgia (68.0)SECA84-66L0%0.0
12-28Tulane (107.7)AmerH75-85L0%0.0
12-30Houston (42.5)AmerA76-73L0%0.0
1-4Cincinnati (11.4)AmerH53-55L0%0.0
1-7UCF (68.3)AmerA60-39L0%0.0
1-10SMU (42.6)AmerA64-66W100%0.0
1-13Memphis (118.6)AmerH72-75L0%0.0
1-17Tulsa (128.6)AmerH59-58W100%0.0
1-20Penn (172.9)IvyA51-60W100%0.0
1-24Cincinnati (11.4)AmerA0-08%-15.4
1-28Connecticut (102.6)AmerH0-071%6.2
2-1Wichita St. (18.0)AmerH0-027%-7.0
2-4Tulane (107.7)AmerA0-052%0.6
2-7East Carolina (279.7)AmerH0-094%17.1
2-10South Florida (296.6)AmerA0-088%13.0
2-15Wichita St. (18.0)AmerA0-011%-13.3
2-18Houston (42.5)AmerH0-043%-1.8
2-25UCF (68.3)AmerH0-059%2.6
2-28Connecticut (102.6)AmerA0-049%-0.2
3-4Tulsa (128.6)AmerA0-048%-0.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Temple's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Temple's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Temple.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TempleAmer26.3126.2150.5551.130.290.59
ConnecticutAmer0.414.1052.6347.920.02-0.17
Wichita St.Amer0.274.0778.9577.120.162.21
CincinnatiAmer2.834.0588.8984.842.202.82
HoustonAmer2.834.0577.7872.611.571.83
TulsaAmer2.904.0257.8955.280.460.42
UCFAmer2.834.0266.6760.180.940.82
TulaneAmer2.963.9961.1156.740.660.54
SMUAmer2.912.4773.6872.931.381.13
MemphisAmer2.972.4663.1657.150.780.35
South FloridaAmer0.272.4435.0026.59-0.08-1.14
East CarolinaAmer0.272.4342.1133.41-0.04-0.81
La SalleA102.841.8336.8440.78-0.75-0.34
AuburnSEC2.701.8394.4479.572.401.08
VillanovaBE2.851.8094.4489.982.531.44
South CarolinaSEC2.771.8064.7153.700.820.13
Saint Joseph'sA102.771.8052.9453.420.160.12
GeorgiaSEC2.771.7864.7154.420.820.16
DrexelCAA2.771.7531.5832.06-1.02-0.63
PennIvy2.771.7568.7564.961.040.52
George WashingtonA102.701.7242.1141.59-0.43-0.29
ClemsonACC2.701.6988.8975.762.100.87
Old DominionCUSA2.631.6783.3379.401.750.98
WisconsinB102.631.6752.6347.840.14-0.07
FloridaSEC0.140.2273.6871.560.070.09
ArkansasSEC0.140.2268.4264.200.050.06
LSUSEC0.210.1961.1153.170.050.01
FordhamA100.210.1931.5829.06-0.08-0.08
AlabamaSEC0.350.1968.4258.980.130.03
MassachusettsA100.290.1950.0046.810.00-0.01
RichmondA100.270.1931.5834.36-0.10-0.06
DaytonA100.290.1647.3750.94-0.020.00
TennesseeSEC0.210.1672.2268.930.090.06
MarquetteBE0.210.1668.4260.550.080.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.140.1672.2258.920.060.03
Saint LouisA100.140.1647.3746.92-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.210.1645.0041.30-0.02-0.03
XavierBE0.270.1685.7180.080.190.10
TowsonCAA0.280.1463.1665.970.070.04
Illinois St.MVC0.200.1447.3746.09-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.200.1464.7159.990.060.03
ColumbiaIvy0.150.1420.0032.25-0.09-0.05
Florida St.ACC0.140.1473.6869.640.060.05
MissouriSEC0.220.1466.6763.200.070.04
HofstraCAA0.270.1457.8959.490.040.03
MercerSC0.270.1444.4454.86-0.030.01
St. John'sBE0.210.1447.3742.16-0.01-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.149.5217.90-0.06-0.09
VCUA100.270.1460.0059.700.050.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.270.1468.4270.810.100.06
HarvardIvy0.140.1137.5046.69-0.03-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.220.1152.9460.220.010.02
FairfieldMAAC0.220.1138.8944.08-0.05-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.070.1123.5325.64-0.04-0.05
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.1166.6765.640.020.03
North CarolinaACC0.140.1180.0075.060.080.06
Oklahoma St.B120.070.1168.4254.090.020.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.140.1121.0539.48-0.08-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.140.1152.9455.030.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.140.1127.7840.97-0.06-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.210.1152.9452.230.010.00
FIUCUSA0.140.1135.2935.54-0.04-0.03
Kansas St.B120.130.1173.6862.720.060.03
MississippiSEC0.220.1152.6345.860.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.140.1166.6759.820.050.02
New OrleansSlnd0.200.1137.5045.24-0.05-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.070.1170.0060.470.030.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.1127.7834.50-0.03-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.070.1166.6768.730.020.04
DavidsonA100.070.1158.8261.450.010.02
DuquesneA100.130.1170.0058.090.050.02
Rhode IslandA100.130.1183.3381.430.090.07
Michigan St.B100.000.1185.0083.200.000.07
CornellIvy0.150.0833.3333.23-0.05-0.03
YaleIvy0.070.0841.1847.56-0.01-0.00
UMKCWAC0.080.0821.0524.75-0.04-0.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0822.2227.33-0.04-0.04
LafayettePat0.210.0822.2227.47-0.12-0.04
Georgia TechACC0.070.0852.6343.110.00-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.140.0825.0028.24-0.07-0.04
Notre DameACC0.070.0863.1661.020.020.02
UTSACUSA0.070.0841.1839.65-0.01-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.070.0842.1140.46-0.01-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0820.0023.34-0.04-0.04
HowardMEAC0.140.0810.5327.29-0.11-0.04
MonmouthMAAC0.080.0827.7841.03-0.03-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0827.7831.110.00-0.03
BaylorB120.070.0861.1156.090.010.01
ElonCAA0.070.0852.6351.080.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0837.5037.68-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.140.0838.8940.78-0.03-0.02
KentuckySEC0.150.0873.6867.970.070.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.140.0850.0051.380.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.140.0850.0045.870.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.140.0827.7831.71-0.06-0.03
StetsonASun0.070.0833.3336.93-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0868.4263.960.000.02
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0836.8435.57-0.02-0.02
SyracuseACC0.000.0868.4261.230.000.02
UABCUSA0.140.0861.1164.130.030.02
Western CarolinaSC0.140.0838.8935.37-0.03-0.02
WyomingMWC0.140.0861.1156.830.030.01
Miami FLACC0.200.0877.7870.480.110.03
ArizonaP120.070.0880.0078.940.040.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.140.0830.0036.50-0.05-0.02
NorthwesternB100.070.0855.0050.330.010.00
UCLAP120.140.0865.0062.050.040.02
BrownIvy0.000.0650.0045.140.00-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.0621.4326.350.00-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.060.009.09-0.08-0.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0655.5656.740.010.01
ToledoMAC0.150.0666.6767.700.050.02
RutgersB100.070.0655.0046.690.01-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0612.5025.45-0.05-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.140.0658.8249.760.02-0.00
CaliforniaP120.000.0636.8431.120.00-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.0645.0049.29-0.01-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0645.0041.33-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.070.0647.3743.02-0.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0657.8966.260.000.02
Georgia St.SB0.070.0666.6765.520.020.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.067.6920.09-0.06-0.03
Iowa St.B120.070.0661.1147.220.01-0.00
LamarSlnd0.070.0650.0054.890.000.01
LibertyBSth0.070.0650.0054.190.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.070.0640.0042.52-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0650.0050.860.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.070.0668.4263.650.030.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0628.5731.26-0.03-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.070.0647.0641.41-0.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.140.0665.0056.340.040.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0663.1663.220.000.01
OklahomaB120.000.0677.7867.910.000.02
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0630.0032.52-0.03-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0672.2272.980.000.03
UTEPCUSA0.070.0633.3334.10-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.070.0684.2178.170.050.03
Boston CollegeACC0.140.0565.0054.670.040.01
BryantNEC0.140.059.5217.12-0.11-0.04
BucknellPat0.140.0561.9068.020.030.02
Indiana St.MVC0.140.0544.4446.02-0.02-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.140.0578.9569.790.080.02
Loyola MDPat0.130.0522.2228.66-0.07-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0572.2274.710.030.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.140.0518.7536.82-0.09-0.01
Ohio St.B100.140.0580.9576.520.080.03
RiderMAAC0.130.0565.0065.320.040.02
SamfordSC0.140.0527.7832.66-0.06-0.02
VirginiaACC0.070.0594.7486.140.060.04
WinthropBSth0.140.0550.0059.450.000.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0516.6724.26-0.05-0.03
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0550.0053.260.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.070.0572.2274.930.030.03
ButlerBE0.070.0566.6763.070.020.01
ColgatePat0.000.0550.0051.030.000.00
CreightonBE0.000.0575.0070.700.000.02
DePaulBE0.070.0542.1134.31-0.01-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.070.0568.4254.070.030.00
IllinoisB100.070.0547.3744.27-0.00-0.01
IndianaB100.070.0557.8950.710.010.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0529.4139.63-0.03-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.140.0544.4450.08-0.020.00
OregonP120.000.0565.0063.850.000.01
Penn St.B100.130.0561.9055.760.030.01
PurdueB100.070.0590.4888.370.050.04
Seton HallBE0.000.0575.0067.890.000.02
Stony BrookAE0.000.0536.8445.210.00-0.01
CampbellBSth0.000.0347.0647.410.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0352.3848.530.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0336.8444.110.00-0.00
NavyPat0.080.0360.0055.160.020.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0341.1839.16-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0357.8958.850.000.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.070.0356.2556.830.010.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.070.0327.7838.14-0.03-0.01
DrakeMVC0.070.0355.0048.980.01-0.00
DukeACC0.000.0389.4785.210.000.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0342.1146.00-0.01-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0383.3381.370.050.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0352.6355.290.000.00
MaineAE0.070.0310.5314.83-0.06-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0315.7920.91-0.05-0.02
NJITASun0.070.0338.8942.61-0.01-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.070.0344.4446.65-0.01-0.00
OhioMAC0.070.0347.0648.41-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0340.0030.870.00-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.070.0335.0031.83-0.02-0.01
RiceCUSA0.070.0311.1117.68-0.05-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0357.1460.410.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.070.0316.6724.45-0.05-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0390.4888.960.060.02
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0358.8262.820.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0341.1838.470.00-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.070.037.6923.28-0.06-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0321.0544.26-0.04-0.00
Texas TechB120.000.0378.9571.810.000.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.0352.6358.590.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.070.0311.1118.00-0.06-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0368.4257.740.000.00
Washington St.P120.070.0347.3741.44-0.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.070.0368.7563.690.030.01
AlbanyAE0.070.0371.4370.240.030.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0333.3337.230.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0350.0052.460.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.070.0378.9576.990.040.01
Cal PolyBW0.070.0323.5328.21-0.03-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.070.030.003.07-0.07-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0346.6746.970.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.070.0380.9583.260.040.02
Green BayHorz0.070.0325.0027.94-0.03-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.070.0320.0041.73-0.04-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.070.0326.3230.49-0.03-0.01
IowaB100.000.0347.6244.020.00-0.00
Little RockSB0.070.0322.2225.25-0.04-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0326.6729.04-0.03-0.01
MarylandB100.000.0370.0065.250.000.01
MichiganB100.000.0376.1970.740.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0345.0047.07-0.01-0.00
MinnesotaB100.000.0363.6457.630.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.070.0370.5975.950.030.01
New HampshireAE0.070.0333.3340.08-0.02-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0311.1115.290.00-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.070.0366.6773.210.020.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.070.037.1414.82-0.06-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0342.1146.09-0.01-0.00
SienaMAAC0.070.0328.5729.94-0.03-0.01
TCUB120.070.0373.6865.600.030.01
UMass LowellAE0.070.0333.3333.87-0.02-0.01
UMBCAE0.070.0355.5655.540.010.00
USCP120.070.0371.4368.280.030.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.070.0345.0045.03-0.01-0.00