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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Temple

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:34.0
Current RPI:34
Expected SOS:62
Current SOS:62
Current Record:23-10
Expected Record:23-10
Current Conf Record:14-6
Expected Conf Record:14-6
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-0
Current OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:42
Expected OOC SOS:41



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-1034.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Temple.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14American (135.0)PatH40-37W100%0.0
11-17Louisiana Tech (58.0)CUSAH82-75W100%0.0
11-21Duke (6.0)ACCN74-54L0%0.0
11-22UNLV (114.0)MWCN50-57L0%0.0
11-25Penn (254.0)IvyH76-67W100%0.0
11-30LIU Brooklyn (256.0)NECH70-56W100%0.0
12-3Saint Joseph's (187.0)A10A58-56L0%0.0
12-6La Salle (101.0)A10N58-57W100%0.0
12-10Towson (281.0)CAAH76-64W100%0.0
12-14Villanova (3.0)BEA85-62L0%0.0
12-18Delaware (253.0)CAAA62-82W100%0.0
12-22Kansas (2.0)B12H77-52W100%0.0
12-28Delaware St. (204.0)MEACH66-56W100%0.0
12-31Connecticut (77.0)AmerA53-57W100%0.0
1-4UCF (257.0)AmerH84-78W100%0.0
1-7Tulane (214.0)AmerA56-64W100%0.0
1-10Tulsa (45.0)AmerH56-63L0%0.0
1-14SMU (12.0)AmerH55-60L0%0.0
1-17Cincinnati (37.0)AmerA84-53L0%0.0
1-22South Florida (273.0)AmerH73-48W100%0.0
1-28UCF (257.0)AmerA62-86W100%0.0
1-31Tulane (214.0)AmerH55-37W100%0.0
2-4South Florida (273.0)AmerA48-61W100%0.0
2-7Memphis (83.0)AmerA60-61W100%0.0
2-10Cincinnati (37.0)AmerH75-59W100%0.0
2-14East Carolina (219.0)AmerH66-53W100%0.0
2-19SMU (12.0)AmerA67-58L0%0.0
2-22Tulsa (45.0)AmerA55-39L0%0.0
2-26Houston (239.0)AmerH66-54W100%0.0
3-5East Carolina (219.0)AmerA56-70W100%0.0
3-7Connecticut (77.0)AmerH75-63W100%0.0
3-13Memphis (83.0)AmerN75-80W100%0.0
3-14SMU (12.0)AmerN69-56L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Temple's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Temple's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Temple.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TempleAmer26.3226.3269.6669.6610.3510.35
SMUAmer5.365.3679.3179.313.143.14
ConnecticutAmer4.074.0762.5062.501.021.02
East CarolinaAmer3.903.9041.3841.38-0.67-0.67
TulsaAmer3.873.8768.9768.971.471.47
MemphisAmer3.853.8560.0060.000.770.77
CincinnatiAmer3.853.8570.0070.001.541.54
South FloridaAmer3.853.8527.5927.59-1.73-1.73
UCFAmer3.853.8540.7440.74-0.71-0.71
TulaneAmer3.803.8050.0050.000.000.00
HoustonAmer2.492.4941.9441.94-0.40-0.40
La SalleA101.661.6653.1253.120.100.10
Saint Joseph'sA101.641.6440.0040.00-0.33-0.33
VillanovaBE1.611.6193.9493.941.421.42
DelawareCAA1.611.6134.4834.48-0.50-0.50
PennIvy1.611.6133.3333.33-0.54-0.54
TowsonCAA1.591.5936.6736.67-0.42-0.42
Delaware St.MEAC1.571.5750.0050.000.000.00
AmericanPat1.561.5653.1253.120.100.10
DukeACC1.561.5687.5087.501.171.17
LIU BrooklynNEC1.541.5441.3841.38-0.27-0.27
KansasB121.541.5478.7978.790.890.89
Louisiana TechCUSA1.541.5477.4277.420.840.84
UNLVMWC1.541.5451.6151.610.050.05
HofstraCAA0.200.2060.6160.610.040.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.170.1716.1316.13-0.11-0.11
North Carolina St.ACC0.170.1760.6160.610.040.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.150.1525.8125.81-0.07-0.07
James MadisonCAA0.150.1559.3859.380.030.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.150.1556.6756.670.020.02
DrexelCAA0.150.1537.9337.93-0.04-0.04
ElonCAA0.150.1541.9441.94-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.140.1427.2727.27-0.07-0.07
St. John'sBE0.140.1464.5264.520.040.04
GonzagaWCC0.140.1493.9493.940.130.13
Oklahoma St.B120.140.1456.6756.670.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.140.1475.8675.860.070.07
Rhode IslandA100.140.1470.0070.000.060.06
WagnerNEC0.120.1231.0331.03-0.05-0.05
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.120.1225.9325.93-0.06-0.06
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
NortheasternCAA0.120.1267.6567.650.040.04
Florida St.ACC0.120.1251.5251.520.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Jackson St.SWAC0.120.1234.3834.38-0.04-0.04
DavidsonA100.120.1276.6776.670.070.07
MonmouthMAAC0.120.1254.5554.550.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
ColumbiaIvy0.120.1244.4444.44-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
St. Francis PANEC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
UABCUSA0.120.1254.5554.550.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.120.1240.6240.62-0.02-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.120.1275.7675.760.060.06
WyomingMWC0.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
LafayettePat0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
MassachusettsA100.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.120.1274.2974.290.060.06
StanfordP120.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
LehighPat0.120.1251.7251.720.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
DaytonA100.110.1175.7675.760.060.06
BaylorB120.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
XavierBE0.110.1161.7661.760.030.03
DetroitHorz0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.100.1067.8667.860.040.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
USC UpstateASun0.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
William & MaryCAA0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
YaleIvy0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
NavyPat0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Oral RobertsSum0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.100.1087.1087.100.070.07
Stony BrookAE0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
BryantNEC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
FordhamA100.090.0930.0030.00-0.04-0.04
North CarolinaACC0.090.0968.5768.570.040.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.090.0952.9452.940.010.01
ArmyPat0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
CreightonBE0.090.0942.4242.42-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.090.0968.7568.750.040.04
Seton HallBE0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
MichiganB100.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
SyracuseACC0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
ColgatePat0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
TexasB120.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
West VirginiaB120.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
HarvardIvy0.080.0874.0774.070.040.04
BrownIvy0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.0718.7518.75-0.05-0.05
SouthernSWAC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.076.906.90-0.06-0.06
HawaiiBW0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Boise St.MWC0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
IndianaB100.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
LamarSlnd0.070.0742.3142.31-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
RiceCUSA0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0764.7164.710.020.02
NJITind0.070.0756.0056.000.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.070.0721.4321.43-0.04-0.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Notre DameACC0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
Texas TechB120.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
FloridaSEC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.070.0775.7675.760.030.03
MarquetteBE0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
TCUB120.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
CornellIvy0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
StetsonASun0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
MaristMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
RiderMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
FIUCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0541.1841.18-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Green BayHorz0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0558.3358.330.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
DuquesneA100.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
RichmondA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
NebraskaB100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.050.050.000.00-0.05-0.05
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0586.6786.670.030.03
Utah St.MWC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
UTSACUSA0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
North TexasCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.050.0590.6290.620.040.04
IllinoisB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
ButlerBE0.040.0468.7568.750.020.02
DePaulBE0.040.0437.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.040.0446.8846.88-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.030.0310.0010.00-0.02-0.02
DenverSum0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
AlbanyAE0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
ArizonaP120.020.0291.1891.180.020.02
Arizona St.P120.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0281.2581.250.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.020.0283.3383.330.020.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.020.0226.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.020.0255.5655.560.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
PortlandWCC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.020.0272.4172.410.010.01
SamfordSC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Miami FLACC0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
PittsburghACC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.020.0247.0647.06-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.020.0291.1891.180.020.02
WoffordSC0.020.0281.2581.250.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
KentuckySEC0.020.02100.00100.000.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00