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Through games of Nov 26, 2014.


Temple

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:136.8
Current RPI:84
Expected SOS:90
Current SOS:52
Current Record:3-2
Expected Record:16-15
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-2
Current OOC Record:3-2
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:122
Expected OOC SOS:93



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-757.00.01%
23-843.40.05%
22-948.20.33%
21-1060.10.99%
20-1171.32.55%
19-1283.95.73%
18-1399.410.46%
17-14113.714.65%
16-15129.517.41%
15-16144.716.60%
14-17161.613.59%
13-18178.69.02%
12-19196.85.19%
11-20213.52.22%
10-21228.40.98%
9-22249.30.15%
8-23269.00.05%
7-24285.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Temple.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14American (108.7)PatH40-37W100%0.0
11-17Louisiana Tech (75.6)CUSAH82-75W100%0.0
11-21Duke (3.6)ACCN74-54L0%0.0
11-22UNLV (125.0)MWCN50-57L0%0.0
11-25Penn (314.8)IvyH76-67W100%0.0
11-30LIU Brooklyn (252.3)NECH0-081%10.7
12-3Saint Joseph's (187.2)A10A0-052%0.5
12-6La Salle (98.1)A10H0-055%1.5
12-10Towson (156.3)CAAH0-069%6.1
12-14Villanova (24.7)BEA0-09%-16.4
12-18Delaware (312.4)CAAA0-077%8.9
12-22Kansas (29.0)B12H0-029%-6.7
12-28Delaware St. (276.9)MEACH0-088%13.9
12-31Connecticut (31.3)AmerA0-013%-13.3
1-4UCF (232.8)AmerH0-077%8.7
1-7Tulane (232.8)AmerA0-054%1.1
1-10Tulsa (100.1)AmerH0-050%0.0
1-14SMU (45.7)AmerH0-034%-4.9
1-17Cincinnati (70.6)AmerA0-025%-8.1
1-22South Florida (116.8)AmerH0-057%2.3
1-28UCF (232.8)AmerA0-055%1.6
1-31Tulane (232.8)AmerH0-075%8.2
2-4South Florida (116.8)AmerA0-034%-4.9
2-7Memphis (58.1)AmerA0-017%-11.6
2-10Cincinnati (70.6)AmerH0-047%-0.9
2-14East Carolina (229.7)AmerH0-076%8.3
2-19SMU (45.7)AmerA0-016%-12.0
2-22Tulsa (100.1)AmerA0-028%-7.1
2-26Houston (141.4)AmerH0-058%2.4
3-5East Carolina (229.7)AmerA0-054%1.1
3-7Connecticut (31.3)AmerH0-031%-6.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Temple's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Temple's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Temple.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TempleAmer30.1726.2947.3746.72-1.59-1.72
ConnecticutAmer0.004.0575.0068.370.001.49
South FloridaAmer0.004.0375.0055.400.000.44
CincinnatiAmer0.004.00100.0060.880.000.87
East CarolinaAmer0.004.0025.0035.38-0.00-1.17
SMUAmer0.004.0050.0064.590.001.17
TulaneAmer0.004.0066.6740.170.00-0.79
TulsaAmer0.004.0060.0055.040.000.40
UCFAmer0.004.0066.6740.460.00-0.76
HoustonAmer0.002.5066.6761.020.000.55
MemphisAmer0.002.5050.0068.190.000.91
La SalleA100.001.78100.0057.010.000.25
Saint Joseph'sA100.001.7560.0039.180.00-0.38
VillanovaBE0.001.72100.0076.630.000.92
DelawareCAA0.001.720.0019.62-0.00-1.05
PennIvy10.001.720.0024.16-10.00-0.89
TowsonCAA0.001.7080.0058.940.000.30
Delaware St.MEAC1.251.6725.0040.65-0.62-0.31
AmericanPat11.001.6780.0061.566.600.39
DukeACC10.001.67100.0083.0510.001.10
UNLVMWC10.001.6466.6750.033.330.00
KansasB120.001.6466.6758.860.000.29
LIU BrooklynNEC0.001.640.0050.23-0.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA10.831.64100.0074.3110.830.80
HofstraCAA0.000.2260.0068.220.000.08
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.190.0030.79-0.00-0.07
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.1720.0034.64-0.00-0.05
James MadisonCAA0.000.1680.0046.930.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1666.6747.140.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.000.1620.0036.68-0.00-0.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1640.0053.46-0.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.16100.0060.350.000.03
St. John'sBE0.000.16100.0058.520.000.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.16100.0065.430.000.05
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.140.0038.94-0.00-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.000.14100.0061.400.000.03
ColumbiaIvy0.000.1475.0064.980.000.04
WagnerNEC0.000.140.0045.08-0.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.1440.0038.71-0.00-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.1433.3339.40-0.00-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.140.0027.64-0.00-0.06
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1420.0043.55-0.00-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.830.1425.0046.16-0.42-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.1466.6751.600.000.00
ElonCAA0.000.1440.0039.53-0.00-0.03
StanfordP122.080.1380.0070.971.250.06
DaytonA100.000.1375.0071.150.000.06
Morehead St.OVC3.080.1333.3359.02-1.030.02
VCUA100.000.1380.0073.080.000.06
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1120.0031.23-0.00-0.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.1120.0031.47-0.00-0.04
DavidsonA100.000.1166.6761.870.000.03
DetroitHorz0.000.1160.0058.400.000.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.1150.0051.010.000.00
YaleIvy0.000.1180.0070.280.000.05
MonmouthMAAC0.000.1150.0052.150.000.00
OklahomaB120.000.1175.0064.910.000.03
LafayettePat1.250.1160.0060.080.250.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.11100.0088.520.000.08
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.110.0051.96-0.000.00
NavyPat0.000.1120.0029.93-0.00-0.04
BryantNEC0.000.1133.3346.61-0.00-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.1180.0066.690.000.04
TexasB120.000.11100.0080.270.000.07
West VirginiaB120.000.11100.0069.720.000.04
William & MaryCAA0.000.1175.0056.120.000.01
WyomingMWC0.000.11100.0069.580.000.04
St. BonaventureA100.000.1175.0052.090.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.1150.0065.760.000.03
CreightonBE0.000.11100.0060.970.000.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.1175.0067.420.000.04
ArmyPat0.000.11100.0069.410.000.04
LehighPat0.000.1120.0042.40-0.00-0.02
FordhamA100.000.110.0026.01-0.00-0.05
MassachusettsA100.000.1183.3366.600.000.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.1166.6749.610.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.000.1183.3384.530.000.07
UABCUSA0.000.1125.0040.45-0.00-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.11100.0061.350.000.02
Seton HallBE0.000.11100.0064.150.000.03
XavierBE0.000.11100.0077.810.000.06
SyracuseACC0.000.1080.0068.140.000.04
HarvardIvy0.000.0966.6773.440.000.04
USC UpstateASun0.000.0966.6751.210.000.00
BrownIvy0.000.0820.0038.01-0.00-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.080.0030.94-0.00-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.000.08100.0079.750.000.05
BaylorB120.000.08100.0070.110.000.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.080.0018.42-0.00-0.05
HawaiiBW0.000.0871.4357.180.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.080.0015.65-0.00-0.06
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0840.0038.45-0.00-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0820.0038.27-0.00-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0840.0033.60-0.00-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.080.0035.63-0.00-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.080.0056.00-0.000.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.08100.0084.900.000.06
Fresno St.MWC0.000.080.0023.00-0.00-0.04
HamptonMEAC0.830.0816.6745.77-0.56-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0825.0051.72-0.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0816.6739.87-0.00-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0825.0036.66-0.00-0.02
SouthernSWAC1.000.080.0035.41-1.00-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0814.2931.08-0.00-0.03
MichiganB100.000.0875.0066.610.000.03
NJITind0.000.0820.0029.79-0.00-0.03
Boise St.MWC0.000.0880.0062.960.000.02
FloridaSEC0.000.0850.0064.920.000.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.080.0066.35-0.000.03
AlabamaSEC0.000.0880.0058.430.000.01
ColgatePat0.000.0820.0039.02-0.00-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.000.0840.0031.26-0.00-0.03
BucknellPat0.000.0833.3335.82-0.00-0.02
PresbyterianBSth2.670.080.0022.89-2.67-0.04
CornellIvy0.000.0642.8640.94-0.00-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.060.0036.14-0.00-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.0625.0037.52-0.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.060.0030.90-0.00-0.02
RiderMAAC1.250.0650.0046.840.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.000.0620.0033.15-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0666.6750.220.000.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0660.0037.550.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0680.0074.900.000.03
Green BayHorz0.000.0675.0077.520.000.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.06100.0052.660.000.00
IndianaB100.000.0680.0057.110.000.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0675.0062.480.000.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0650.0046.630.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.000.0625.0036.41-0.00-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0650.0040.810.00-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.06100.0045.580.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0650.0049.570.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.000.0633.3345.71-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0625.0034.11-0.00-0.02
TCUB120.000.06100.0061.120.000.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0650.0036.120.00-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0040.80-0.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.000.0675.0045.520.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0625.0052.61-0.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.060.0028.63-0.00-0.02
WashingtonP120.000.06100.0055.210.000.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0550.0042.970.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0575.0038.820.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0533.3330.44-0.00-0.02
UtahP120.000.0575.0073.450.000.03
Air ForceMWC0.000.0533.3345.47-0.00-0.00
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0525.0053.31-0.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.05100.0061.670.000.01
DuquesneA100.000.05100.0054.340.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.050.0036.09-0.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0520.0021.73-0.00-0.03
George WashingtonA100.000.0575.0069.280.000.02
Holy CrossPat0.000.05100.0066.080.000.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.050.0025.58-0.00-0.03
NebraskaB100.000.0575.0053.300.000.00
NevadaMWC0.000.0525.0043.39-0.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0560.0055.640.000.01
RichmondA100.000.0550.0064.050.000.02
Saint LouisA100.000.0575.0046.370.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.000.050.0019.26-0.00-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0566.6750.870.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.0560.0055.090.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.05100.0072.490.000.02
UTSACUSA0.000.0533.3329.25-0.00-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0525.0041.79-0.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.05100.0065.110.000.02
VirginiaACC0.000.05100.0073.600.000.02
ButlerBE0.000.05100.0071.480.000.02
DePaulBE0.000.0566.6726.420.00-0.02
MarquetteBE0.000.0550.0037.010.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0583.3369.220.000.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.05100.0066.690.000.02
BinghamtonAE0.000.030.0022.97-0.00-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0333.3330.18-0.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.03100.0053.810.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0316.6731.72-0.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0350.0029.060.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0333.3335.63-0.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0320.0038.42-0.00-0.01
CampbellBSth0.000.030.0034.56-0.00-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0024.09-0.00-0.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0325.0045.71-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0380.0079.380.000.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0325.0031.71-0.00-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0375.0066.110.000.01
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0089.070.000.02
LibertyBSth0.000.0320.0029.02-0.00-0.01
MaineAE0.000.030.0019.27-0.00-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.0333.3367.86-0.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0325.0048.11-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0027.68-0.00-0.01
OregonP120.000.0360.0063.060.000.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.030.0042.16-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.030.0068.13-0.000.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0350.0032.470.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0325.0026.31-0.00-0.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0350.0063.440.000.01
ArizonaP120.000.03100.0075.690.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0360.0053.110.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0360.0067.390.000.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.03100.0068.200.000.01
DenverSum0.000.0350.0060.810.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0350.0044.930.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.030.0031.85-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.030.0048.64-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0380.0074.520.000.01
PortlandWCC0.000.03100.0051.720.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0350.0055.700.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0320.0041.72-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd1.250.0350.0065.310.000.01
SamfordSC0.000.0333.3335.00-0.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.030.0038.82-0.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0016.41-0.00-0.02
UMBCAE0.000.030.0027.57-0.00-0.01
VermontAE0.000.0350.0065.840.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0340.0038.08-0.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0360.0050.770.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.830.0340.0032.41-0.17-0.01
FurmanSC0.830.0325.0027.83-0.42-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.03100.0049.260.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0079.150.000.02
Miami FLACC0.000.03100.0079.800.000.02
Michigan St.B100.830.0375.0072.040.420.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0360.0057.880.000.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0340.0060.24-0.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0360.0036.000.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.03100.0086.460.000.02
WoffordSC0.000.0380.0077.430.000.01