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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.


Temple

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:42.0
Current RPI:42
Expected SOS:62
Current SOS:62
Current Record:23-9
Expected Record:23-9
Current Conf Record:11-6
Expected Conf Record:11-6
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-1
Current OOC Record:12-3
Expected OOC Record:12-3
Expected OOC RPI:34
Expected OOC SOS:66



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-942.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Temple.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Kent St. (131.0)MACA66-80W100%0.0
11-17Rice (324.0)CUSAH77-63W100%0.0
11-25Delaware (141.0)CAAH80-75W100%0.0
11-28Buffalo (215.0)MACA39-54W100%0.0
12-1Wagner (126.0)NECH70-62W100%0.0
12-5Villanova (52.0)BEA61-76W100%0.0
12-8Duke (1.0)ACCN90-67L0%0.0
12-12Towson (157.0)CAAH72-61W100%0.0
12-17Alcorn St. (311.0)SWACH63-46W100%0.0
12-19Canisius (112.0)MAACH62-72L0%0.0
12-22Syracuse (14.0)BEN79-83W100%0.0
12-31Bowling Green (274.0)MACH75-57W100%0.0
1-6Kansas (5.0)B12A69-62L0%0.0
1-10Xavier (87.0)A10A57-52L0%0.0
1-12St. Louis (15.0)A10H64-54W100%0.0
1-16George Washington (147.0)A10A53-55W100%0.0
1-19St. Bonaventure (139.0)A10H78-81L0%0.0
1-23Pennsylvania (280.0)IvyH76-69W100%0.0
1-26Butler (22.0)A10A83-71L0%0.0
1-30Richmond (92.0)A10H71-64W100%0.0
2-2Saint Joseph's (82.0)A10A70-69L0%0.0
2-6Charlotte (68.0)A10H89-88W100%0.0
2-9Dayton (114.0)A10A71-72W100%0.0
2-14Duquesne (229.0)A10H83-84L0%0.0
2-16Massachusetts (57.0)A10A82-83W100%0.0
2-21La Salle (46.0)A10H82-74W100%0.0
2-24Charlotte (68.0)A10A51-71W100%0.0
2-28Detroit (63.0)HorzH83-78W100%0.0
3-2Rhode Island (201.0)A10H76-70W100%0.0
3-6Fordham (228.0)A10A55-74W100%0.0
3-10Virginia Commonwealth (24.0)A10H84-76W100%0.0
3-15Massachusetts (57.0)A10N74-79L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Temple's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Temple's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Temple.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TempleA1025.8925.8970.5570.5510.6410.64
MassachusettsA103.583.5866.6766.671.191.19
CharlotteA103.553.5570.0070.001.421.42
ButlerA102.112.1175.0075.001.061.06
Virginia CommonwealthA102.112.1178.7978.791.221.22
St. LouisA102.112.1184.3884.381.451.45
Saint Joseph'sA102.092.0956.6756.670.280.28
La SalleA102.082.0872.4172.410.930.93
XavierA102.062.0653.3353.330.140.14
RichmondA102.062.0658.0658.060.330.33
George WashingtonA102.042.0444.8344.83-0.21-0.21
St. BonaventureA102.042.0446.4346.43-0.15-0.15
FordhamA102.012.0123.3323.33-1.07-1.07
DaytonA102.012.0156.6756.670.270.27
Rhode IslandA102.012.0128.5728.57-0.86-0.86
DuquesneA101.991.9924.1424.14-1.03-1.03
PennsylvaniaIvy1.761.7630.0030.00-0.70-0.70
BuffaloMAC1.741.7438.7138.71-0.39-0.39
DelawareCAA1.741.7459.3859.380.330.33
Kent St.MAC1.711.7161.2961.290.390.39
SyracuseBE1.711.7176.4776.470.910.91
VillanovaBE1.711.7161.2961.290.390.39
CanisiusMAAC1.691.6956.6756.670.220.22
Bowling GreenMAC1.691.6937.9337.93-0.41-0.41
DetroitHorz1.661.6662.0762.070.400.40
Alcorn St.SWAC1.641.6429.0329.03-0.69-0.69
KansasB121.611.6184.8584.851.121.12
WagnerNEC1.611.6163.3363.330.430.43
TowsonCAA1.611.6158.6258.620.280.28
DukeACC1.611.6183.8783.871.091.09
RiceCUSA1.561.5614.2914.29-1.12-1.12
OhioMAC0.250.2572.7372.730.110.11
Miami OHMAC0.250.2526.6726.67-0.12-0.12
DrexelCAA0.230.2341.9441.94-0.04-0.04
AkronMAC0.200.2080.6580.650.120.12
James MadisonCAA0.200.2058.8258.820.040.04
Miami FLACC0.200.2081.8281.820.130.13
NortheasternCAA0.200.2062.5062.500.050.05
PittsburghBE0.190.1975.0075.000.100.10
SienaMAAC0.180.1825.0025.00-0.09-0.09
HarvardIvy0.180.1866.6766.670.060.06
HofstraCAA0.170.1719.3519.35-0.11-0.11
PrincetonIvy0.170.1759.2659.260.030.03
ProvidenceBE0.170.1754.8454.840.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.150.1548.2848.28-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.150.1560.6160.610.030.03
ManhattanMAAC0.150.1543.7543.75-0.02-0.02
George MasonCAA0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.150.1513.7913.79-0.11-0.11
Central MichiganMAC0.150.1533.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Eastern MichiganMAC0.150.1541.9441.94-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.140.1480.6580.650.090.09
LouisvilleBE0.140.1485.2985.290.100.10
Southern MethodistCUSA0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.130.1337.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.130.1369.7069.700.050.05
Georgia St.CAA0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.130.1355.8855.880.010.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.120.1253.8553.850.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.120.1270.5970.590.050.05
Central ConnecticutNEC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
NC WilmingtonCAA0.120.1231.0331.03-0.05-0.05
Ball St.MAC0.120.1248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.120.1254.5554.550.010.01
St. John'sBE0.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
MonmouthNEC0.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Old DominionCAA0.120.1216.6716.67-0.08-0.08
Kansas St.B120.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
Wright St.Horz0.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
Loyola MDMAAC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
New Orleansind0.100.1018.1818.18-0.07-0.07
Long IslandNEC0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
CornellIvy0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
ToledoMAC0.100.1053.5753.570.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
William & MaryCAA0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
YaleIvy0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.100.1022.5822.58-0.05-0.05
RadfordBSth0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Notre DameBE0.100.1073.5373.530.050.05
Santa ClaraWCC0.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
DavidsonSC0.100.1078.1278.120.050.05
South FloridaBE0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
ElonSC0.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
Seton HallBE0.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
HoustonCUSA0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
TulsaCUSA0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
DrakeMVC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
BrownIvy0.080.0844.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
MemphisCUSA0.080.0888.2488.240.060.06
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0710.0010.00-0.06-0.06
ColumbiaIvy0.070.0738.4638.46-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Texas St.WAC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
LehighPat0.070.0768.9768.970.030.03
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MarylandACC0.070.0764.7164.710.020.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Texas ChristianB120.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
RutgersBE0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
West VirginiaB120.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiBE0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
ConnecticutBE0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
MarquetteBE0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
Iowa St.B120.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Texas TechB120.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Texas El PasoCUSA0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
TulaneCUSA0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
HartfordAE0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.GWC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
Boston UniversityAE0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
BucknellPat0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
SamfordSC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
BryantNEC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
St. Peter'sMAAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
IUPUISum0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.050.0548.0048.00-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
WoffordSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Oregon St.P120.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
GramblingSWAC0.050.050.000.00-0.05-0.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.050.059.689.68-0.04-0.04
MinnesotaB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
NC AshevilleBSth0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSlnd0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
AmericanPat0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
VirginiaACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
MissouriSEC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
StetsonASun0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
DePaulBE0.050.0534.3834.38-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
BelmontOVC0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
OklahomaB120.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Central FloridaCUSA0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Houston BaptistGWC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Southern MississippiCUSA0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
St. Mary'sWCC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
The CitadelSC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
College of CharlestonSC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Virginia Military InstBSth0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
CreightonMVC0.030.0379.4179.410.010.01
Florida AtlanticSB0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
MississippiSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
PacificBW0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
QuinnipiacNEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Southern CaliforniaP120.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
ClemsonACC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.020.0257.6957.690.000.00
KentuckySEC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
LibertyBSth0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.020.0271.4371.430.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.020.0293.7593.750.020.02
IllinoisB100.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
IndianaB100.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
North TexasSB0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.020.0228.0028.00-0.01-0.01
South Carolina UpstateASun0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
WashingtonP120.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.WAC0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckySB0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
WinthropBSth0.020.0239.2939.29-0.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01