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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.


Temple

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:24.4
Current RPI:19
Expected SOS:58
Current SOS:58
Current Record:17-5
Expected Record:23-7
Current Conf Record:6-2
Expected Conf Record:12-4
Probability of Auto Bid:18.07%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:11-3
Expected OOC Record:11-3
Expected OOC RPI:15
Expected OOC SOS:39



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-512.13.79%
24-615.717.70%
23-720.630.15%
22-826.828.99%
21-934.314.17%
20-1043.64.38%
19-1154.40.76%
18-1267.60.05%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Temple.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Pennsylvania (113.9)IvyA67-73W100%0.0
11-17Western Michigan (174.1)MACN55-69W100%0.0
11-18Purdue (65.0)B10N85-77L0%0.0
11-20Wichita St. (17.4)MVCN74-78W100%0.0
11-27Bowling Green (155.1)MACA67-64L0%0.0
12-3Central Michigan (271.4)MACH86-74W100%0.0
12-7Toledo (277.2)MACA58-77W100%0.0
12-10Villanova (98.5)BEH78-67W100%0.0
12-17Texas (58.4)B12A77-65L0%0.0
12-19Rice (177.4)CUSAA70-77W100%0.0
12-28Buffalo (70.7)MACH87-85W100%0.0
12-30Delaware (183.1)CAAA63-66W100%0.0
1-4Duke (4.2)ACCH78-73W100%0.0
1-7Dayton (77.1)A10H77-87L0%0.0
1-11St. Louis (32.0)A10A67-72W100%0.0
1-14Richmond (135.3)A10A76-65L0%0.0
1-18La Salle (69.1)A10H76-70W100%0.0
1-21Maryland (112.8)ACCH73-60W100%0.0
1-25Charlotte (140.3)A10A57-79W100%0.0
1-28Saint Joseph's (49.2)A10H78-60W100%0.0
2-1Fordham (243.2)A10H78-60W100%0.0
2-4Rhode Island (250.6)A10A56-73W100%0.0
2-8George Washington (196.4)A10H0-092%15.4
2-11Xavier (55.8)A10H0-070%5.6
2-15St. Bonaventure (93.8)A10A0-054%1.2
2-18Duquesne (79.5)A10H0-079%8.7
2-22La Salle (69.1)A10A0-044%-1.6
2-25Saint Joseph's (49.2)A10A0-046%-1.1
2-29Massachusetts (76.4)A10H0-075%7.5
3-3Fordham (243.2)A10A0-092%15.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Temple's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Temple's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Temple.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TempleA1026.1326.0179.8177.4115.5814.26
La SalleA102.623.8673.9171.631.251.67
Saint Joseph'sA102.623.8365.2264.940.801.15
FordhamA102.473.7842.8636.74-0.35-1.00
Rhode IslandA102.522.2321.7421.29-1.42-1.28
St. BonaventureA100.312.2360.0059.560.060.43
DuquesneA100.402.2359.0957.600.070.34
George WashingtonA100.352.2234.7832.91-0.11-0.76
MassachusettsA100.342.2273.9170.100.160.89
DaytonA102.582.2059.0959.620.470.42
XavierA100.352.2065.2264.890.110.65
RichmondA102.472.2047.8346.77-0.11-0.14
St. LouisA102.472.2080.9580.451.531.34
CharlotteA102.572.1952.3851.210.120.05
Western MichiganMAC2.541.9242.8644.44-0.36-0.21
Bowling GreenMAC2.441.8745.0047.00-0.24-0.11
Central MichiganMAC2.481.8730.0035.43-0.99-0.54
BuffaloMAC2.431.8772.2269.011.080.71
VillanovaBE2.521.8647.6247.67-0.12-0.09
PennsylvaniaIvy2.521.8657.1458.730.360.32
ToledoMAC2.441.8440.0042.26-0.49-0.28
DukeACC2.431.7890.4885.861.971.27
DelawareCAA2.421.7850.0052.460.000.09
TexasB122.371.7259.0960.080.430.35
PurdueB102.321.7263.6459.270.630.32
MarylandACC2.321.7261.9052.570.550.09
RiceCUSA2.321.6950.0048.180.00-0.06
Wichita St.MVC2.271.6786.3683.291.651.11
Miami OHMAC0.270.2630.0034.15-0.11-0.08
Eastern MichiganMAC0.320.2640.9138.38-0.06-0.06
Northern IllinoisMAC0.320.265.267.30-0.29-0.22
AkronMAC0.220.2368.1867.910.080.08
Ball St.MAC0.220.2355.0057.410.020.03
Boston UniversityAE0.290.2248.0051.88-0.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.270.2071.4369.050.120.08
OhioMAC0.220.2081.8277.200.140.11
Georgia TechACC0.200.1939.1342.12-0.04-0.03
HarvardIvy0.100.1990.4887.910.080.15
CornellIvy0.210.1736.8441.45-0.06-0.03
DavidsonSC0.200.1776.1976.760.110.09
Miami FLACC0.150.1765.0060.020.050.03
James MadisonCAA0.200.1640.0040.18-0.04-0.03
IonaMAAC0.250.1679.1780.100.140.10
TulsaCUSA0.150.1460.8759.050.030.03
NC WilmingtonCAA0.200.1439.1336.10-0.04-0.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.200.1434.7832.06-0.06-0.05
NortheasternCAA0.100.1447.8348.56-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.100.144.005.26-0.09-0.12
IllinoisB100.150.1472.7364.430.070.04
Virginia TechACC0.150.1456.5255.200.020.01
Boston CollegeACC0.100.1430.4326.44-0.04-0.07
PittsburghBE0.100.1460.8758.160.020.02
Penn St.B100.100.1441.6738.67-0.02-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.100.1486.9683.160.070.09
Wake ForestACC0.200.1447.8343.66-0.01-0.02
SienaMAAC0.050.1245.4545.55-0.00-0.01
George MasonCAA0.150.1176.0072.500.080.05
HamptonMEAC0.100.1136.3638.48-0.03-0.03
Texas St.Slnd0.160.1122.2227.62-0.09-0.05
SyracuseBE0.100.1195.8392.010.090.09
Iowa St.B120.210.1173.9168.430.100.04
St. John'sBE0.150.1143.4840.28-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.100.1170.8364.420.040.03
CreightonMVC0.100.1187.5085.410.070.08
DrexelCAA0.150.1179.1778.100.090.06
AlabamaSEC0.200.1168.1869.100.070.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.150.1142.1149.81-0.02-0.00
LafayettePat0.150.1143.4842.95-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.160.1176.1972.910.080.05
Robert MorrisNEC0.100.1168.0070.030.040.04
Florida St.ACC0.100.1172.7371.710.050.05
Seton HallBE0.150.1165.2263.740.050.03
AmericanPat0.150.1165.2263.790.040.03
Northern IowaMVC0.100.0962.5061.500.030.02
East CarolinaCUSA0.110.0944.4441.71-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.100.0940.9139.82-0.02-0.02
MemphisCUSA0.110.0969.5771.510.040.04
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.110.0919.0521.29-0.07-0.05
Cleveland St.Horz0.100.0981.8280.430.060.05
BradleyMVC0.100.0924.0024.86-0.05-0.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.160.0930.0030.06-0.06-0.03
MonmouthNEC0.100.0928.0028.91-0.05-0.04
RadfordBSth0.150.098.7013.10-0.13-0.06
PrincetonIvy0.110.0847.3752.87-0.010.00
Georgia St.CAA0.100.0866.6769.690.030.03
HofstraCAA0.100.0832.0035.39-0.03-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.100.0868.0069.070.040.03
ColoradoP120.150.0866.6762.650.050.02
DetroitHorz0.110.0847.8349.03-0.00-0.00
Florida InternationalSB0.160.0833.3337.16-0.05-0.02
Texas A&MB120.100.0852.3846.150.00-0.01
MinnesotaB100.150.0869.5761.310.060.02
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.100.0880.0078.060.060.05
CincinnatiBE0.050.0869.5765.470.020.03
DartmouthIvy0.050.0814.2917.17-0.04-0.05
NebraskaB100.100.0852.3846.680.00-0.01
OklahomaB120.050.0859.0954.700.010.01
Western KentuckySB0.100.0834.7834.48-0.03-0.03
VirginiaACC0.050.0881.8276.800.030.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0845.4545.70-0.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0872.7368.280.020.03
MissouriB120.150.0891.3087.180.120.06
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0825.0037.58-0.02-0.02
BrownIvy0.100.0827.2723.80-0.05-0.04
BucknellPat0.090.0873.9175.000.050.04
KansasB120.100.0878.2678.390.060.05
MichiganB100.100.0872.7366.810.050.03
RiderMAAC0.100.0837.5038.52-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.150.0854.5556.790.010.01
YaleIvy0.100.0872.2263.190.040.02
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0617.3919.81-0.04-0.04
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0637.5041.54-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.110.0650.0051.530.000.00
HoustonCUSA0.000.0647.6244.63-0.00-0.01
Southern MethodistCUSA0.050.0638.1037.86-0.01-0.01
Texas El PasoCUSA0.050.0643.4843.31-0.01-0.01
TulaneCUSA0.110.0661.9058.590.030.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0673.9175.490.020.03
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0637.5038.33-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistGWC0.050.0625.0028.52-0.03-0.03
LamarSlnd0.110.0661.9067.230.030.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0618.1821.13-0.03-0.03
Loyola MDMAAC0.000.0677.2773.450.000.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0620.0019.96-0.03-0.03
BinghamtonAE0.050.060.004.02-0.05-0.05
Chicago St.GWC0.100.064.769.95-0.09-0.05
ColgatePat0.050.0630.4329.50-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.050.0652.1750.090.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.100.0645.4544.02-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.100.0618.1822.22-0.07-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0662.5062.060.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.100.0656.5254.220.010.00
LehighPat0.050.0673.9174.910.020.03
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0654.1757.200.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.110.0656.5253.100.010.00
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0665.2263.610.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.110.0641.6740.61-0.02-0.01
Central FloridaCUSA0.050.0671.4366.600.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0633.3335.97-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0635.2939.85-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.110.0650.0048.900.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0645.4541.20-0.00-0.01
South Carolina UpstateASun0.100.0654.5556.090.010.01
Old DominionCAA0.100.0660.0058.290.020.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0626.3229.79-0.02-0.02
WashingtonP120.100.0669.5766.540.040.02
William & MaryCAA0.100.0612.5013.44-0.07-0.04
GonzagaWCC0.050.0681.8281.490.030.03
MarquetteBE0.100.0679.1775.980.060.03
Notre DameBE0.050.0665.2262.650.020.01
South FloridaBE0.050.0654.5548.600.00-0.00
ButlerHorz0.050.0550.0050.800.000.00
ClemsonACC0.050.0550.0048.360.00-0.00
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.050.0535.0035.31-0.01-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.050.0556.5250.270.010.00
RutgersBE0.050.0550.0046.810.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.050.0540.9141.72-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.050.0590.9183.850.040.04
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0555.0054.800.010.01
HartfordAE0.050.0517.3920.97-0.03-0.03
IndianaB100.050.0575.0075.780.020.03
IowaB100.100.0554.1749.440.01-0.00
NC GreensboroSC0.100.0534.7833.46-0.03-0.02
NorthwesternB100.050.0561.9055.140.010.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0586.9685.460.040.04
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0545.4540.70-0.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.050.0531.8225.98-0.02-0.03
Brigham YoungWCC0.060.0375.0076.000.030.02
St. Peter'sMAAC0.060.0321.7424.58-0.03-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0319.0522.37-0.03-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.050.0359.0959.720.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.050.0345.0046.13-0.01-0.00
Southern MississippiCUSA0.000.0385.7182.180.000.02
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0321.7422.76-0.00-0.02
Texas ChristianMWC0.050.0357.1449.540.01-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0330.0037.30-0.02-0.01
ArizonaP120.000.0366.6768.550.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0369.5765.150.020.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0365.0066.700.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0355.0060.330.000.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.050.0352.3852.860.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.038.7011.67-0.04-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0354.1754.750.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0359.0957.760.010.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0345.4546.99-0.00-0.00
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.050.0382.6181.440.030.02
New MexicoMWC0.050.0381.8281.030.030.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0369.5768.900.020.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0368.1869.680.020.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0338.8943.93-0.01-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.050.0331.8233.83-0.02-0.01
PortlandWCC0.050.0321.7421.70-0.03-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0360.8759.760.000.01
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.050.0319.0524.61-0.03-0.01
Texas San AntonioSlnd0.050.0357.1460.750.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0331.8242.13-0.02-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.050.0335.0035.26-0.02-0.01
Utah St.WAC0.050.0350.0052.930.000.00
VermontAE0.050.0360.0062.490.010.01
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.000.0335.0039.38-0.00-0.01
AlbanyAE0.050.0360.0060.420.010.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0375.0074.610.000.01
College of CharlestonSC0.000.0358.3359.980.000.01
ConnecticutBE0.000.0368.1863.990.000.01
DePaulBE0.050.0350.0042.830.00-0.00
ElonSC0.000.0350.0047.590.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0354.5554.300.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.0380.9577.380.000.02
HawaiiWAC0.000.0357.1453.120.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0371.4373.350.000.01
LouisvilleBE0.050.0378.2672.660.030.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0363.6456.710.010.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0326.0928.60-0.02-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.03100.0094.550.050.02
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.000.0333.3338.38-0.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0361.9063.520.000.01
OaklandSum0.050.0348.0050.21-0.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0380.7780.750.000.02
QuinnipiacNEC0.000.0356.5257.150.000.00
SamfordSC0.050.0333.3335.26-0.02-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0328.5726.30-0.02-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.050.0342.8639.66-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.000.0318.1815.01-0.00-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0369.5765.870.000.01
West VirginiaBE0.050.0365.2265.170.020.01
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0352.6348.410.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.050.0334.7834.61-0.02-0.01
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0356.5257.720.010.00
BelmontASun0.050.0369.5773.280.020.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0366.6760.800.020.01
High PointBSth0.050.0331.8232.75-0.02-0.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0327.2727.21-0.02-0.01
MaineAE0.050.0350.0049.730.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.050.0334.7833.43-0.02-0.01
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.050.0313.6416.35-0.04-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0325.0023.75-0.02-0.01
North TexasSB0.050.0350.0050.010.000.00
Oregon St.P120.050.0363.6463.160.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0340.9143.66-0.01-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0344.0045.89-0.01-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.050.0345.4544.66-0.00-0.00
Texas ArlingtonSlnd0.050.0376.1975.940.030.01
WagnerNEC0.050.0382.6184.570.030.02
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0334.7837.24-0.02-0.01
WisconsinB100.050.0375.0073.970.020.01