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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Temple

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:175.0
Current RPI:175
Expected SOS:46
Current SOS:46
Current Record:9-22
Expected Record:9-22
Current Conf Record:4-15
Expected Conf Record:4-15
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-5
Current OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:136
Expected OOC SOS:45



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
9-22175.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Temple.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Penn (284.0)IvyA73-78W100%0.0
11-11Kent St. (213.0)MACH77-81L0%0.0
11-14Towson (95.0)CAAA75-69L0%0.0
11-21Clemson (79.0)ACCN72-58L0%0.0
11-22Georgia (74.0)SECN83-81W100%0.0
11-24UAB (152.0)CUSAN87-66W100%0.0
12-4Saint Joseph's (32.0)A10H77-69W100%0.0
12-7Texas (36.0)B12H80-81L0%0.0
12-18Texas Southern (239.0)SWACH89-90L0%0.0
12-21LIU Brooklyn (297.0)NECA65-101W100%0.0
1-1Rutgers (192.0)AmerA71-66L0%0.0
1-4UCF (220.0)AmerA78-76L0%0.0
1-9South Florida (232.0)AmerH75-82L0%0.0
1-11Memphis (37.0)AmerH69-79L0%0.0
1-14Cincinnati (21.0)AmerA69-58L0%0.0
1-18La Salle (98.0)A10A74-68L0%0.0
1-21Connecticut (22.0)AmerA90-66L0%0.0
1-26Cincinnati (21.0)AmerH76-80L0%0.0
1-29Rutgers (192.0)AmerH88-82W100%0.0
2-1Villanova (5.0)BEH74-90L0%0.0
2-6SMU (53.0)AmerA75-52L0%0.0
2-9Houston (143.0)AmerA88-74L0%0.0
2-14Louisville (19.0)AmerH58-82L0%0.0
2-16SMU (53.0)AmerH71-64W100%0.0
2-20Connecticut (22.0)AmerH55-68L0%0.0
2-22Memphis (37.0)AmerA82-79L0%0.0
2-27Louisville (19.0)AmerA88-66L0%0.0
3-1Houston (143.0)AmerH79-89L0%0.0
3-4UCF (220.0)AmerH86-78W100%0.0
3-8South Florida (232.0)AmerA65-66W100%0.0
3-12UCF (220.0)AmerN90-94L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Temple's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Temple's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Temple.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TempleAmer26.3526.3528.1028.10-11.54-11.54
UCFAmer5.685.6834.6234.62-1.75-1.75
ConnecticutAmer4.244.2475.0075.002.122.12
LouisvilleAmer4.244.2484.3884.382.912.91
CincinnatiAmer4.224.2280.6580.652.582.58
RutgersAmer4.214.2133.3333.33-1.40-1.40
HoustonAmer4.184.1848.3948.39-0.13-0.13
South FloridaAmer4.134.1336.6736.67-1.10-1.10
SMUAmer4.134.1373.3373.331.931.93
MemphisAmer4.134.1368.9768.971.571.57
Saint Joseph'sA101.721.7275.0075.000.860.86
VillanovaBE1.721.7287.1087.101.271.27
La SalleA101.721.7246.6746.67-0.11-0.11
PennIvy1.691.6929.6329.63-0.69-0.69
UABCUSA1.661.6657.1457.140.240.24
TowsonCAA1.641.6466.6766.670.550.55
ClemsonACC1.611.6161.2961.290.360.36
GeorgiaSEC1.611.6161.2961.290.360.36
Kent St.MAC1.611.6146.6746.67-0.11-0.11
LIU BrooklynNEC1.611.6132.1432.14-0.58-0.58
TexasB121.611.6168.7568.750.600.60
Texas SouthernSWAC1.611.6154.8454.840.160.16
Oklahoma St.B120.200.2063.6463.640.060.06
Seton HallBE0.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
Miami FLACC0.160.1651.5251.520.000.00
StetsonASun0.160.1622.5822.58-0.09-0.09
HowardMEAC0.160.1619.3519.35-0.10-0.10
YaleIvy0.160.1651.8551.850.010.01
LSUSEC0.150.1559.3859.380.030.03
George WashingtonA100.150.1575.0075.000.080.08
Texas St.SB0.150.1520.6920.69-0.09-0.09
HofstraCAA0.150.1530.3030.30-0.06-0.06
PrincetonIvy0.130.1370.3770.370.050.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.130.1316.6716.67-0.09-0.09
Florida St.ACC0.130.1359.3859.380.030.03
George MasonA100.130.1335.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
William & MaryCAA0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
St. BonaventureA100.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
DrexelCAA0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
FloridaSEC0.120.1294.1294.120.110.11
TCUB120.120.1224.1424.14-0.06-0.06
Texas A&MSEC0.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
Texas TechB120.120.1243.7543.75-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
WagnerNEC0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
CornellIvy0.110.113.703.70-0.10-0.10
HarvardIvy0.110.1186.2186.210.080.08
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.100.1068.9768.970.040.04
SienaMAAC0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
LehighPat0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
RiceCUSA0.100.1017.8617.86-0.07-0.07
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.1042.4242.42-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.100.1046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.100.1072.7372.730.050.05
MassachusettsA100.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
Boston UniversityPat0.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
DaytonA100.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.100.1032.1432.14-0.04-0.04
PittsburghACC0.100.1073.5373.530.050.05
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
XavierBE0.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
DetroitHorz0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
KentuckySEC0.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
New MexicoMWC0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
UTSACUSA0.080.0822.2222.22-0.04-0.04
DuquesneA100.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
AlabamaSEC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.0814.8114.81-0.05-0.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0830.3030.30-0.03-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0841.1841.18-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.080.0882.3582.350.050.05
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0713.7913.79-0.05-0.05
USC UpstateASun0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
VCUA100.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
CreightonBE0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
DePaulBE0.070.0736.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SC0.070.0719.2319.23-0.05-0.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
HartfordAE0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
BaylorB120.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
West VirginiaB120.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
MarylandACC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
BrownIvy0.060.0651.8551.850.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
NJITind0.060.0636.0036.00-0.02-0.02
BryantNEC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0661.7661.760.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0521.2121.21-0.03-0.03
Penn St.B100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
LafayettePat0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
TulsaCUSA0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
AkronMAC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0564.2964.290.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0546.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
FordhamA100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0593.1093.100.040.04
ArmyPat0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
DavidsonSC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
DukeACC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
UICHorz0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
MarquetteBE0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
MissouriSEC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
St. John'sBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
WyomingMWC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Kansas St.B120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0583.8783.870.030.03
OklahomaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
MaineAE0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Western KentuckySB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
TulaneCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
BucknellPat0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
NavyPat0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0378.5778.570.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Oregon St.P120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
The CitadelSC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
UMBCAE0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
ColoradoP120.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
LipscombASun0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
USCP120.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
VMIBSth0.030.0355.5655.560.000.00
WoffordSC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
DenverSum0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.020.0214.8114.81-0.02-0.02
MercerASun0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Michigan St.B100.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
VermontAE0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Washington St.P120.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01