Temple

Conference:	Amer
Expected RPI:	52.0
Current RPI:	52
Expected SOS:	13
Current SOS:	13
Current Record:	17-15
Expected Record:	17-15
Current Conf Record:	9-11
Expected Conf Record:	9-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	3-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	7-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	3-1
Current OOC Record:	8-4
Expected OOC Record:	8-4
Expected OOC RPI:	21
Expected OOC SOS:	13

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
17-15	52.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Temple.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-16	Old Dominion (78.0)	CUSA	N	76-65	W	100%
11-17	Auburn (15.0)	SEC	N	88-74	W	100%
11-19	Clemson (11.0)	ACC	N	60-67	W	100%
11-26	La Salle (202.0)	A10	A	87-83	L	0%
11-30	South Carolina (90.0)	SEC	N	76-60	W	100%
12-3	George Washington (195.0)	A10	N	71-67	L	0%
12-6	Wisconsin (114.0)	B10	H	59-55	W	100%
12-9	Saint Joseph's (147.0)	A10	H	81-78	W	100%
12-13	Villanova (2.0)	BE	H	67-87	L	0%
12-16	Drexel (242.0)	CAA	H	63-60	W	100%
12-22	Georgia (79.0)	SEC	A	84-66	L	0%
12-28	Tulane (175.0)	Amer	H	75-85	L	0%
12-30	Houston (18.0)	Amer	A	76-73	L	0%
1-4	Cincinnati (6.0)	Amer	H	53-55	L	0%
1-7	UCF (84.0)	Amer	A	60-39	L	0%
1-10	SMU (113.0)	Amer	A	64-66	W	100%
1-13	Memphis (106.0)	Amer	H	72-75	L	0%
1-17	Tulsa (89.0)	Amer	H	59-58	W	100%
1-20	Penn (112.0)	Ivy	A	51-60	W	100%
1-24	Cincinnati (6.0)	Amer	A	75-42	L	0%
1-28	Connecticut (123.0)	Amer	H	85-57	W	100%
2-1	Wichita St. (16.0)	Amer	H	81-79	W	100%
2-4	Tulane (175.0)	Amer	A	76-83	W	100%
2-7	East Carolina (274.0)	Amer	H	90-73	W	100%
2-10	South Florida (278.0)	Amer	A	55-73	W	100%
2-15	Wichita St. (16.0)	Amer	A	93-86	L	0%
2-18	Houston (18.0)	Amer	H	59-80	L	0%
2-25	UCF (84.0)	Amer	H	75-56	W	100%
2-28	Connecticut (123.0)	Amer	A	72-66	L	0%
3-4	Tulsa (89.0)	Amer	A	76-58	L	0%
3-8	Tulane (175.0)	Amer	N	82-77	W	100%
3-9	Wichita St. (16.0)	Amer	N	89-81	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Temple's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Temple's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Temple.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Temple	Amer	26.32	26.32	52.74	52.74	1.44	1.44
Wichita St.	Amer	5.41	5.41	79.31	79.31	3.17	3.17
Tulane	Amer	5.29	5.29	46.43	46.43	-0.38	-0.38
Houston	Amer	4.03	4.03	77.42	77.42	2.21	2.21
Cincinnati	Amer	3.93	3.93	87.50	87.50	2.94	2.94
Connecticut	Amer	3.90	3.90	43.33	43.33	-0.52	-0.52
UCF	Amer	3.88	3.88	60.00	60.00	0.78	0.78
Tulsa	Amer	3.86	3.86	62.07	62.07	0.93	0.93
Memphis	Amer	2.47	2.47	60.61	60.61	0.52	0.52
SMU	Amer	2.46	2.46	53.12	53.12	0.15	0.15
East Carolina	Amer	2.37	2.37	34.48	34.48	-0.73	-0.73
South Florida	Amer	2.34	2.34	32.26	32.26	-0.83	-0.83
La Salle	A10	1.71	1.71	38.71	38.71	-0.39	-0.39
Auburn	SEC	1.71	1.71	80.65	80.65	1.05	1.05
Villanova	BE	1.69	1.69	87.88	87.88	1.28	1.28
Saint Joseph's	A10	1.68	1.68	51.61	51.61	0.05	0.05
South Carolina	SEC	1.68	1.68	51.61	51.61	0.05	0.05
Georgia	SEC	1.66	1.66	53.12	53.12	0.10	0.10
Penn	Ivy	1.63	1.63	76.67	76.67	0.87	0.87
Drexel	CAA	1.63	1.63	38.71	38.71	-0.37	-0.37
George Washington	A10	1.61	1.61	43.75	43.75	-0.20	-0.20
Clemson	ACC	1.59	1.59	74.19	74.19	0.77	0.77
Old Dominion	CUSA	1.56	1.56	80.65	80.65	0.96	0.96
Wisconsin	B10	1.56	1.56	46.88	46.88	-0.10	-0.10
Fordham	A10	0.22	0.22	29.03	29.03	-0.09	-0.09
Arkansas	SEC	0.22	0.22	67.65	67.65	0.08	0.08
Massachusetts	A10	0.19	0.19	39.39	39.39	-0.04	-0.04
Alabama	SEC	0.19	0.19	55.88	55.88	0.02	0.02
Florida	SEC	0.19	0.19	62.50	62.50	0.05	0.05
Marquette	BE	0.19	0.19	59.38	59.38	0.04	0.04
George Mason	A10	0.17	0.17	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Louis	A10	0.17	0.17	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Richmond	A10	0.17	0.17	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
LSU	SEC	0.17	0.17	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.15	0.15	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Dayton	A10	0.15	0.15	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
College of Charleston	CAA	0.15	0.15	77.42	77.42	0.08	0.08
Missouri	SEC	0.15	0.15	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Tennessee	SEC	0.14	0.14	75.76	75.76	0.07	0.07
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.14	0.14	69.70	69.70	0.06	0.06
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.14	0.14	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Xavier	BE	0.14	0.14	84.85	84.85	0.10	0.10
Illinois St.	MVC	0.13	0.13	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.12	0.12	71.43	71.43	0.05	0.05
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.12	0.12	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
Southern	SWAC	0.12	0.12	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Harvard	Ivy	0.12	0.12	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.12	0.12	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Towson	CAA	0.12	0.12	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.12	0.12	26.92	26.92	-0.06	-0.06
William & Mary	CAA	0.12	0.12	58.62	58.62	0.02	0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.12	0.12	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Rhode Island	A10	0.12	0.12	78.12	78.12	0.07	0.07
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.12	0.12	15.62	15.62	-0.08	-0.08
Hofstra	CAA	0.12	0.12	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Mercer	SC	0.12	0.12	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
VCU	A10	0.12	0.12	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.12	0.12	87.88	87.88	0.09	0.09
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.12	0.12	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
St. John's	BE	0.12	0.12	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Providence	BE	0.12	0.12	61.76	61.76	0.03	0.03
South Alabama	SB	0.10	0.10	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Charlotte	CUSA	0.10	0.10	17.86	17.86	-0.06	-0.06
Yale	Ivy	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.10	0.10	60.71	60.71	0.02	0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.10	0.10	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
UMKC	WAC	0.10	0.10	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
Kansas St.	B12	0.10	0.10	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.10	0.10	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.10	0.10	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
FIU	CUSA	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.10	0.10	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Notre Dame	ACC	0.10	0.10	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.10	0.10	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Baylor	B12	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Davidson	A10	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Duquesne	A10	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.10	0.10	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Nebraska	B10	0.10	0.10	68.75	68.75	0.04	0.04
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.10	0.10	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
New Orleans	Slnd	0.09	0.09	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Colorado St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Georgia St.	SB	0.08	0.08	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.08	0.08	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.07	0.07	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Cornell	Ivy	0.07	0.07	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
UTSA	CUSA	0.07	0.07	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Monmouth	MAAC	0.07	0.07	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Howard	MEAC	0.07	0.07	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Boston College	ACC	0.07	0.07	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
California	P12	0.07	0.07	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Elon	CAA	0.07	0.07	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.07	0.07	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.07	0.07	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.07	0.07	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.07	0.07	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.07	0.07	80.00	80.00	0.04	0.04
Stetson	ASun	0.07	0.07	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Syracuse	ACC	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Lafayette	Pat	0.07	0.07	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Arizona	P12	0.07	0.07	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.07	0.07	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.07	0.07	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Texas A&M	SEC	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.07	0.07	93.94	93.94	0.06	0.06
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.07	0.07	32.35	32.35	-0.03	-0.03
UAB	CUSA	0.07	0.07	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.07	0.07	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Western Carolina	SC	0.07	0.07	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Wyoming	MWC	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.07	0.07	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Butler	BE	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	6.67	6.67	-0.04	-0.04
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Brown	Ivy	0.05	0.05	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.05	0.05	23.08	23.08	-0.03	-0.03
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Rutgers	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Boston University	Pat	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Bucknell	Pat	0.05	0.05	73.53	73.53	0.02	0.02
Colgate	Pat	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.05	0.05	76.67	76.67	0.03	0.03
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Oregon	P12	0.05	0.05	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
UTEP	CUSA	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
West Virginia	B12	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Winthrop	BSth	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Louisville	ACC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Loyola MD	Pat	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Samford	SC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.05	0.05	12.50	12.50	-0.04	-0.04
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Maryland	B10	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	32.00	32.00	-0.02	-0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.05	82.35	82.35	0.03	0.03
Bryant	NEC	0.05	0.05	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.02	0.02
Creighton	BE	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Radford	BSth	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Navy	Pat	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Appalachian St.	SB	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Drake	MVC	0.02	0.02	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Duke	ACC	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.02	0.02	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Holy Cross	Pat	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.02	0.02	80.65	80.65	0.01	0.01
Maine	AE	0.02	0.02	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.02	0.02	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Murray St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	82.76	82.76	0.02	0.02
NJIT	ASun	0.02	0.02	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
North Texas	CUSA	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.02	0.02	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.02	0.02	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.02	0.02	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.02	0.02	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.02	0.02	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.02	0.02	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.02	0.02	44.12	44.12	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.02	0.02	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Wofford	SC	0.02	0.02	60.00	60.00	0.00	0.00
Boise St.	MWC	0.02	0.02	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
Cal Poly	BW	0.02	0.02	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.02	0.02	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Chicago St.	WAC	0.02	0.02	3.33	3.33	-0.02	-0.02
Green Bay	Horz	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.02	0.02	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.02	0.02	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Michigan	B10	0.02	0.02	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Milwaukee	Horz	0.02	0.02	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Minnesota	B10	0.02	0.02	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
New Hampshire	AE	0.02	0.02	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.02	0.02	8.00	8.00	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.02	0.02	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
San Diego St.	MWC	0.02	0.02	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
TCU	B12	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.02	0.02	30.77	30.77	-0.01	-0.01
UMass Lowell	AE	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
UMBC	AE	0.02	0.02	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
USC	P12	0.02	0.02	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
USC Upstate	ASun	0.02	0.02	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Albany	AE	0.02	0.02	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.02	0.02	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Little Rock	SB	0.02	0.02	20.00	20.00	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.02	0.02	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.02	0.02	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01