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Through games of Feb 21, 2017.


Temple

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:116.1
Current RPI:106
Expected SOS:78
Current SOS:56
Current Record:14-14
Expected Record:16-15
Current Conf Record:5-10
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-1
Current OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:67
Expected OOC SOS:76



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-14104.036.45%
16-15119.248.33%
15-16134.014.17%
14-17153.61.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Temple.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11La Salle (105.0)A10H97-92W100%0.0
11-14New Hampshire (157.1)AEH52-57L0%0.0
11-17Massachusetts (179.3)A10A70-67L0%0.0
11-20Manhattan (250.2)MAACH88-67W100%0.0
11-24Florida St. (14.0)ACCN86-89W100%0.0
11-25West Virginia (25.5)B12N77-81W100%0.0
11-30Saint Joseph's (162.5)A10A72-78W100%0.0
12-3Penn (187.6)IvyH70-62W100%0.0
12-7George Washington (136.8)A10H63-66L0%0.0
12-10DePaul (240.1)BEN74-65W100%0.0
12-13Villanova (1.7)BEA78-57L0%0.0
12-17NJIT (298.1)ASunH68-63W100%0.0
12-22Yale (146.2)IvyH83-77W100%0.0
12-28Cincinnati (13.2)AmerH50-56L0%0.0
12-31UCF (100.0)AmerA77-53L0%0.0
1-4SMU (18.0)AmerA79-65L0%0.0
1-7East Carolina (226.4)AmerH81-62W100%0.0
1-11Connecticut (95.7)AmerA73-59L0%0.0
1-14Tulsa (126.1)AmerH68-70L0%0.0
1-18Cincinnati (13.2)AmerA81-74L0%0.0
1-25Memphis (106.5)AmerH77-66W100%0.0
1-28Houston (53.8)AmerA79-66L0%0.0
1-31Tulane (289.6)AmerA71-79W100%0.0
2-5South Florida (301.1)AmerH83-74W100%0.0
2-9SMU (18.0)AmerH50-66L0%0.0
2-12Memphis (106.5)AmerA62-74W100%0.0
2-15East Carolina (226.4)AmerA78-64L0%0.0
2-19Connecticut (95.7)AmerH63-64L0%0.0
2-22UCF (100.0)AmerH0-051%0.3
2-25Tulane (289.6)AmerH0-088%12.9
3-5South Florida (301.1)AmerA0-081%9.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Temple's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Temple's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Temple.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TempleAmer26.2726.2647.6249.65-1.25-0.18
UCFAmer2.664.0861.5461.230.610.92
South FloridaAmer2.594.0228.0026.84-1.14-1.86
ConnecticutAmer4.134.0047.8346.38-0.18-0.29
CincinnatiAmer4.113.9888.0086.583.122.91
East CarolinaAmer4.173.9846.1543.48-0.32-0.52
MemphisAmer4.113.9872.0067.521.811.39
SMUAmer4.213.9784.6284.562.912.75
TulaneAmer2.523.9719.2319.37-1.55-2.43
HoustonAmer2.422.4668.0067.250.870.85
TulsaAmer2.452.4644.0046.01-0.29-0.20
George WashingtonA101.951.8350.0049.690.00-0.01
PennIvy2.001.8150.0052.280.000.08
VillanovaBE1.991.8092.5991.051.701.48
Saint Joseph'sA102.021.8040.0041.44-0.40-0.31
MassachusettsA101.921.8046.1545.83-0.15-0.15
La SalleA101.991.8056.0056.870.240.25
YaleIvy1.861.6761.9062.610.440.42
West VirginiaB121.851.6781.4880.371.171.01
DePaulBE1.851.6630.7728.79-0.71-0.71
Florida St.ACC1.851.6681.4878.711.160.96
ManhattanMAAC1.851.6635.7134.65-0.53-0.51
New HampshireAE1.821.6454.1755.000.150.16
NJITASun1.791.6130.7731.73-0.69-0.59
Rhode IslandA100.300.2766.6766.740.100.09
George MasonA100.240.2262.9661.390.060.05
ProvidenceBE0.230.2159.2658.080.040.03
BrownIvy0.260.2037.5037.60-0.06-0.05
HarvardIvy0.180.2066.6765.290.060.06
AlbanyAE0.240.1960.7160.550.050.04
GeorgetownBE0.170.1951.8552.210.010.01
FordhamA100.170.1942.3141.93-0.03-0.03
StetsonASun0.160.1629.6328.76-0.07-0.07
VirginiaACC0.200.1666.6767.630.070.06
St. BonaventureA100.130.1661.5461.820.030.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.160.1622.7323.32-0.09-0.08
OklahomaB120.160.1633.3333.55-0.05-0.05
St. John'sBE0.160.1642.8642.01-0.02-0.03
ButlerBE0.160.1677.7874.820.090.08
XavierBE0.160.1666.6766.160.050.05
DartmouthIvy0.120.1526.0925.96-0.06-0.07
ColumbiaIvy0.110.1540.9140.61-0.02-0.03
CornellIvy0.110.1525.0025.32-0.06-0.07
PrincetonIvy0.190.1572.7374.030.090.07
Kennesaw St.ASun0.130.1440.7440.75-0.02-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.170.1365.3863.380.050.04
Saint LouisA100.100.1333.3331.01-0.03-0.05
RiderMAAC0.100.1351.7252.460.000.01
DavidsonA100.170.1353.8552.620.010.01
DuquesneA100.130.1337.0436.52-0.03-0.04
RichmondA100.130.1359.2660.030.020.03
VCUA100.170.1381.4879.390.110.08
College of CharlestonCAA0.130.1371.4372.700.060.06
VermontAE0.150.1282.1482.180.090.08
UMass LowellAE0.100.1134.4834.58-0.03-0.04
DelawareCAA0.110.1137.0435.10-0.03-0.03
North FloridaASun0.140.1130.7732.11-0.05-0.04
LafayettePat0.140.1126.9225.73-0.06-0.05
LipscombASun0.130.1155.5655.680.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.1120.0022.22-0.04-0.06
PittsburghACC0.140.1155.5651.610.020.00
Miami FLACC0.100.1170.3767.210.040.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.1120.0020.87-0.06-0.06
South CarolinaSEC0.100.1170.3770.480.040.04
IonaMAAC0.100.1162.0762.310.020.03
DaytonA100.100.1180.7779.400.060.06
MississippiSEC0.130.1060.7159.880.030.02
CreightonBE0.100.1080.7778.230.060.06
Iowa St.B120.100.1066.6764.790.030.03
MarquetteBE0.130.1062.9661.360.030.02
MonmouthMAAC0.130.1082.7681.870.080.07
Seton HallBE0.100.1061.5460.010.020.02
TCUB120.100.1061.5458.110.020.02
HartfordAE0.110.0927.5927.45-0.05-0.04
Stony BrookAE0.100.0962.9660.420.030.02
Boston UniversityPat0.110.0955.5655.300.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.100.0973.0873.880.050.04
DrexelCAA0.110.0828.5729.06-0.05-0.04
DetroitHorz0.100.0822.2222.37-0.05-0.05
FairfieldMAAC0.100.0851.8551.120.000.00
WinthropBSth0.100.0876.0077.340.050.04
SyracuseACC0.100.0857.1455.700.010.01
WagnerNEC0.100.0852.0053.220.000.01
Illinois St.MVC0.100.0881.4881.200.060.05
New OrleansSlnd0.070.0859.0959.990.010.02
Texas St.SB0.070.0854.1753.200.010.01
MercerSC0.100.0842.3142.85-0.02-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.0859.2662.730.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.060.0855.5652.790.010.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0830.7733.69-0.03-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0834.7833.52-0.02-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.060.0881.4879.400.040.05
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0824.0022.54-0.03-0.04
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.100.0828.0028.36-0.04-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.100.0825.0026.25-0.05-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.080.003.38-0.10-0.07
Notre DameACC0.100.0875.0074.360.050.04
Penn St.B100.100.0850.0048.800.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.100.0853.8554.290.010.01
SienaMAAC0.090.0848.2848.54-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.100.0851.8553.220.000.01
BryantNEC0.080.0635.7137.15-0.02-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.080.0618.5220.01-0.05-0.04
BinghamtonAE0.070.0634.6236.80-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.070.0617.2417.46-0.05-0.04
UMBCAE0.040.0660.0059.010.010.01
LehighPat0.070.0657.6959.710.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0650.0049.370.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.030.0650.0049.750.00-0.00
AmericanPat0.070.0622.2222.15-0.04-0.03
Holy CrossPat0.070.0648.2848.96-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0637.9339.65-0.02-0.01
AuburnSEC0.070.0660.7159.690.020.01
ElonCAA0.030.0655.5656.910.000.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0630.4331.14-0.01-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.070.0646.1546.35-0.01-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.070.0650.0048.510.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0648.0047.39-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.070.0653.5752.330.010.00
OregonP120.070.0685.1984.810.050.04
TroySB0.030.0653.8552.830.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.070.0560.0059.390.010.01
MinnesotaB100.060.0574.0771.310.030.02
PurdueB100.060.0582.1480.770.040.03
BucknellPat0.070.0572.4173.570.030.03
Arizona St.P120.030.0546.4344.11-0.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0530.7729.92-0.01-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0551.8550.750.000.00
MissouriSEC0.030.0525.9325.76-0.02-0.03
SeattleWAC0.030.0539.1337.82-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0546.1547.55-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.030.0548.0047.16-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0544.0045.06-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0551.7249.540.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.060.0532.0032.04-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.030.0581.4878.550.020.03
Boise St.MWC0.060.0566.6766.150.020.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0540.7440.19-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0569.5771.390.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0558.6258.700.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0541.6742.39-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0551.8553.690.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0525.9327.44-0.03-0.02
DukeACC0.030.0581.4878.450.020.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0537.5039.90-0.02-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0538.4638.54-0.02-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0550.0049.680.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.0537.5040.15-0.02-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.060.0541.6743.50-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.060.0555.5655.060.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.0531.8233.08-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.070.0553.5751.530.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0537.5042.37-0.02-0.01
KansasB120.060.0588.8987.370.050.04
Kansas St.B120.060.0562.9661.620.020.01
MaristMAAC0.060.0524.1424.51-0.03-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.070.0553.8554.700.010.00
MichiganB100.060.0562.9662.490.020.01
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0553.5752.490.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0531.0331.60-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0575.0077.120.030.03
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0512.0011.57-0.05-0.04
QuinnipiacMAAC0.060.0535.7136.67-0.02-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.060.0557.1457.270.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0533.3334.37-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.060.0548.0046.99-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.060.0535.7134.86-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.060.0560.7159.300.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0512.5014.90-0.05-0.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0581.4881.510.040.03
USCP120.060.0577.7875.860.040.03
Wake ForestACC0.060.0555.5654.920.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.040.0344.8343.96-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.040.0333.3332.51-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.040.0338.1038.33-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.040.0351.8551.700.000.00
ColgatePat0.030.0332.1433.17-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0316.0016.87-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.030.0355.5655.090.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0342.3143.89-0.01-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.030.0340.0042.25-0.01-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.030.0374.0770.780.020.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0351.8551.270.000.00
LibertyBSth0.030.0357.6957.620.010.00
Little RockSB0.030.0344.0043.42-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0355.5656.690.000.00
LSUSEC0.030.0333.3331.74-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0322.2222.92-0.02-0.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0314.8113.94-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0330.7734.70-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0360.0060.890.010.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0362.9662.810.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0352.1753.600.000.00
ToledoMAC0.030.0348.1549.49-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0386.2186.310.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0322.2224.27-0.02-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0332.1430.40-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0329.1729.85-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0312.0011.80-0.03-0.02
DrakeMVC0.030.0323.0823.92-0.02-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0329.6331.16-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0382.1480.660.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0353.8554.960.000.00
HofstraCAA0.030.0342.8642.57-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0319.2321.46-0.02-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0344.4443.17-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.030.0347.8349.98-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.030.0381.4879.740.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0314.2918.11-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0351.7253.710.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.030.0362.9662.610.010.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0371.4368.300.010.01
PacificWCC0.030.0332.1432.21-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.030.0338.4640.55-0.01-0.00
RutgersB100.030.0344.4442.91-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0340.7442.17-0.01-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0310.7111.38-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0353.8552.810.000.00
UMKCWAC0.030.0348.0046.99-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.030.0370.3769.240.010.01
VMISC0.030.0316.6717.69-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0319.2320.41-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0342.3143.65-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.030.0353.8553.480.000.00