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Through games of Feb 4, 2016.


Temple

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:91.3
Current RPI:72
Expected SOS:82
Current SOS:64
Current Record:13-8
Expected Record:18-12
Current Conf Record:7-3
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-1
Current OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:171
Expected OOC SOS:132



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-837.50.04%
21-949.71.14%
20-1061.25.97%
19-1172.416.50%
18-1284.027.25%
17-1397.527.16%
16-14112.716.35%
15-15129.24.84%
14-16145.50.72%
13-17162.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Temple.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13North Carolina (9.3)ACCN91-67L0%0.0
11-19Minnesota (237.3)B10N70-75W100%0.0
11-20Butler (54.1)BEN74-69L0%0.0
11-22Utah (27.5)P12N74-68L0%0.0
11-29Delaware (274.6)CAAH69-50W100%0.0
12-2Fairleigh Dickinson (213.9)NECH79-70W100%0.0
12-5Wisconsin (61.5)B10A76-60L0%0.0
12-9Penn (294.7)IvyA73-77W100%0.0
12-13Saint Joseph's (38.4)A10H65-66L0%0.0
12-19Delaware St. (346.9)MEACH78-63W100%0.0
12-29Cincinnati (42.4)AmerA70-77W100%0.0
1-2Houston (99.3)AmerH50-77L0%0.0
1-5Connecticut (38.4)AmerA53-55W100%0.0
1-9East Carolina (188.9)AmerH78-60W100%0.0
1-13Memphis (126.4)AmerA67-65L0%0.0
1-16Cincinnati (42.4)AmerH67-65W100%0.0
1-20La Salle (259.5)A10N49-62W100%0.0
1-24SMU (12.5)AmerH89-80W100%0.0
1-27East Carolina (188.9)AmerA64-61L0%0.0
1-31South Florida (247.0)AmerA63-70W100%0.0
2-4Tulsa (74.0)AmerH83-79W100%0.0
2-6UCF (189.6)AmerA0-056%1.7
2-11Connecticut (38.4)AmerH0-030%-5.8
2-14South Florida (247.0)AmerH0-089%13.5
2-17Villanova (4.4)BEH0-016%-10.9
2-21Houston (99.3)AmerA0-031%-5.3
2-23Tulsa (74.0)AmerA0-031%-5.5
2-27UCF (189.6)AmerH0-078%8.3
3-3Memphis (126.4)AmerH0-055%1.3
3-6Tulane (239.5)AmerA0-067%4.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Temple's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Temple's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Temple.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TempleAmer26.3726.2760.8256.825.713.58
CincinnatiAmer5.194.1580.9578.133.212.34
South FloridaAmer2.864.1321.7421.13-1.62-2.38
UCFAmer0.534.1255.0048.220.05-0.15
ConnecticutAmer2.704.1076.1975.041.412.05
East CarolinaAmer5.044.1045.0041.43-0.50-0.70
HoustonAmer2.914.1071.4366.851.251.38
MemphisAmer2.814.1057.1457.600.400.62
TulsaAmer2.874.1066.6761.730.960.96
TulaneAmer0.642.5733.3332.38-0.21-0.91
SMUAmer2.862.5495.0088.492.571.95
VillanovaBE0.361.8786.3685.370.261.32
DelawareCAA2.551.8123.8124.49-1.33-0.92
Saint Joseph'sA102.521.7880.9576.661.560.95
PennIvy2.561.7833.3333.94-0.85-0.57
La SalleA102.511.7822.2221.67-1.39-1.01
ButlerBE2.481.7766.6765.330.830.54
Delaware St.MEAC2.561.7510.5315.40-2.02-1.21
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC2.441.7255.0055.790.240.20
UtahP122.441.7071.4367.471.050.59
WisconsinB102.381.6959.0954.430.430.15
MinnesotaB102.381.6927.2728.77-1.08-0.72
North CarolinaACC2.381.6985.7180.031.701.02
George WashingtonA100.150.2277.2771.670.080.10
MichiganB100.220.1972.7367.970.100.07
GeorgetownBE0.160.1956.5253.440.020.01
MassachusettsA100.120.1742.8639.88-0.02-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.220.1754.5555.960.020.02
NebraskaB100.210.1652.1751.550.010.01
Seton HallBE0.050.1672.7368.660.020.06
South CarolinaSEC0.160.1685.7176.020.110.08
XavierBE0.160.1690.9184.430.130.11
MarylandB100.160.1686.9681.750.120.10
Ohio St.B100.210.1658.3354.130.040.01
DrexelCAA0.190.1414.2918.59-0.14-0.09
Central ConnecticutNEC0.190.1413.6413.79-0.13-0.10
Robert MorrisNEC0.230.1425.0029.52-0.12-0.06
FordhamA100.170.1457.8954.300.030.01
DavidsonA100.050.1457.8955.420.010.02
VCUA100.270.1477.2776.770.150.07
Nicholls St.Slnd0.160.1410.0015.31-0.13-0.10
MarquetteBE0.110.1465.2256.540.030.02
SyracuseACC0.160.1366.6762.710.050.03
PrincetonIvy0.190.1268.7573.150.070.05
ColumbiaIvy0.110.1268.4265.480.040.04
TowsonCAA0.230.1263.6457.320.060.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.110.1131.8235.17-0.04-0.03
Miami FLACC0.170.1180.9575.610.110.06
RutgersB100.110.1122.7320.68-0.06-0.07
College of CharlestonCAA0.160.1161.9059.920.040.02
James MadisonCAA0.160.1169.5768.670.060.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.230.1147.6252.95-0.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.220.1175.0071.270.110.05
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.110.1123.8128.31-0.06-0.05
StetsonASun0.110.1125.0029.75-0.05-0.05
Missouri St.MVC0.160.1140.9138.03-0.03-0.03
Oregon St.P120.160.1160.0054.580.030.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.160.1131.5833.50-0.06-0.04
StanfordP120.160.1152.6347.730.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.160.1190.0086.110.130.08
CaliforniaP120.220.1163.6461.820.060.03
CreightonBE0.050.1160.8759.050.010.02
DePaulBE0.110.1136.3634.96-0.03-0.03
IllinoisB100.100.1147.8344.51-0.00-0.01
IndianaB100.210.1182.6177.360.140.06
NorthwesternB100.210.1166.6763.490.070.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.110.114.7614.00-0.10-0.08
ProvidenceBE0.110.1178.2671.960.060.05
PurdueB100.160.1182.6178.230.100.06
St. John'sBE0.050.1127.2724.41-0.02-0.06
Grambling St.SWAC0.160.1116.6720.72-0.11-0.06
North Carolina St.ACC0.100.1152.1749.340.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.110.1190.4884.910.090.08
LafayettePat0.190.0923.8125.23-0.10-0.04
BrownIvy0.130.0929.4129.72-0.05-0.04
YaleIvy0.130.0970.5972.600.050.04
George MasonA100.130.0936.3635.32-0.04-0.03
HofstraCAA0.120.0968.1865.430.040.03
WashingtonP120.130.0968.1862.170.050.02
DaytonA100.130.0985.7181.210.090.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0928.5734.73-0.00-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.060.0960.0061.320.010.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0827.2732.87-0.02-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0830.0033.57-0.02-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0821.0523.70-0.03-0.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.110.0881.8281.000.070.05
IonaMAAC0.110.0857.1457.700.020.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.110.0826.3236.92-0.05-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0870.0069.090.020.03
ColoradoP120.110.0872.7366.980.050.03
Indiana St.MVC0.110.0854.5555.310.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.110.0840.0044.99-0.02-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.110.0850.0045.740.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.110.0876.1979.640.060.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.160.0821.0529.17-0.09-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.0838.1047.48-0.02-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.170.0826.0930.34-0.08-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.110.0831.8226.63-0.04-0.04
DukeACC0.050.0872.7369.900.020.03
GonzagaWCC0.050.0877.2776.120.030.04
IUPUISum0.110.0841.6740.25-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.100.0882.6181.380.070.05
New HampshireAE0.110.0852.6351.510.010.00
San Diego St.MWC0.160.0871.4370.810.070.03
Georgia TechACC0.050.0854.5552.770.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.050.0863.1666.160.010.03
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0833.3333.65-0.02-0.03
TexasB120.110.0868.1861.760.040.02
CornellIvy0.000.0647.0643.12-0.00-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.0635.2933.93-0.00-0.02
HarvardIvy0.000.0638.8942.86-0.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.060.0626.0927.58-0.03-0.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.110.0650.0050.870.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.060.0641.6746.85-0.01-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0634.7841.60-0.02-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.110.0647.6249.34-0.01-0.00
WagnerNEC0.060.0661.9063.360.010.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.0615.7922.52-0.00-0.03
ElonCAA0.050.0654.5553.030.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.110.0647.8348.71-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.050.0670.0069.350.020.02
DetroitHorz0.000.0645.0044.39-0.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.065.267.23-0.00-0.05
Miami OHMAC0.000.0628.5728.87-0.00-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.000.0672.7371.670.000.02
DuquesneA100.060.0666.6758.770.020.01
RichmondA100.120.0652.3853.670.010.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0638.1033.39-0.00-0.02
TCUB120.120.0645.4537.84-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.110.0657.1457.530.020.01
Old DominionCUSA0.110.0654.5561.940.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0616.6724.28-0.04-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0638.1042.99-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.050.0663.6459.440.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0647.6252.91-0.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.065.2610.18-0.05-0.04
OhioMAC0.050.0660.0057.940.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0640.9143.01-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.050.0681.8278.220.030.03
Southern UtahBSky0.110.0615.7916.40-0.07-0.04
Texas TechB120.110.0661.9054.010.030.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0615.0015.65-0.04-0.04
Washington St.P120.050.0638.1033.46-0.01-0.02
WyomingMWC0.050.0640.9140.45-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.110.0563.6462.330.030.01
IowaB100.000.0581.8279.900.000.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.100.0561.9062.050.020.01
Penn St.B100.100.0547.8343.65-0.00-0.01
UCLAP120.050.0556.5253.330.010.00
AlbanyAE0.050.0573.9175.000.020.03
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0527.2730.42-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.0521.7424.61-0.06-0.03
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0552.1754.440.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.100.0555.0048.830.01-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.110.0536.3642.18-0.03-0.01
FurmanSC0.050.0554.5553.780.000.00
Iowa St.B120.100.0572.7368.840.050.02
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0547.6247.86-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.050.0572.7369.690.020.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0575.0072.210.030.02
MaineAE0.050.0536.3635.58-0.01-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0545.0043.24-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0563.6456.050.010.01
NJITASun0.050.0552.1754.520.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0514.2916.31-0.04-0.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.100.0510.5325.36-0.08-0.03
TroySB0.050.0520.0023.76-0.03-0.03
UABCUSA0.050.0581.8278.320.030.03
UMass LowellAE0.050.0533.3332.89-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.110.0523.8125.04-0.06-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0565.0068.740.020.02
VirginiaACC0.000.0581.8276.020.000.03
Virginia TechACC0.110.0552.1747.260.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.100.0525.0029.91-0.05-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.070.0322.7326.19-0.04-0.01
NavyPat0.070.0365.2265.220.020.01
ArmyPat0.060.0354.5555.990.010.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0345.0049.60-0.01-0.00
RiderMAAC0.060.0339.1342.27-0.01-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.060.0340.0042.55-0.01-0.00
BradleyMVC0.050.038.709.78-0.04-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0360.0057.300.010.00
HowardMEAC0.060.0340.0042.58-0.01-0.00
LamarSlnd0.060.0333.3332.69-0.02-0.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0319.0521.34-0.03-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0352.3848.880.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.060.0347.8343.93-0.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.000.0378.2677.230.000.02
Arizona St.P120.000.0352.1750.250.000.00
BYUWCC0.050.0369.5773.040.020.01
Chicago St.WAC0.050.034.557.91-0.05-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0342.1142.70-0.01-0.00
IPFWSum0.050.0373.9170.210.030.01
Kent St.MAC0.060.0366.6761.680.020.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0359.0959.470.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0347.3750.50-0.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0318.1822.84-0.03-0.02
South DakotaSum0.050.0339.1339.48-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0376.1976.210.030.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0350.0048.260.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.050.0335.0031.39-0.02-0.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0330.0034.84-0.02-0.01
USCP120.000.0378.2673.090.000.01
VMISC0.050.0316.6718.98-0.04-0.02
AkronMAC0.000.0380.9579.160.000.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.0335.2944.50-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.000.0322.7324.84-0.00-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0357.1457.920.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0354.5553.540.000.00
FloridaSEC0.050.0368.1867.800.020.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0368.1863.240.020.01
Green BayHorz0.050.0357.1457.880.010.00
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0352.1747.620.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.050.0359.0955.560.010.00
LibertyBSth0.000.0331.8232.90-0.00-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.050.0381.8277.490.030.01
MercerSC0.000.0371.4370.590.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0342.8641.75-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0329.4138.46-0.00-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0326.0926.65-0.03-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.050.0344.4446.93-0.01-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0352.1754.150.000.00
Notre DameACC0.000.0368.1863.710.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0380.0070.310.000.01
SienaMAAC0.050.0365.2266.710.020.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0368.7574.720.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0373.6870.400.020.01
Wake ForestACC0.050.0345.4542.13-0.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0327.7829.23-0.02-0.01
WoffordSC0.050.0338.1043.38-0.01-0.00