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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Temple

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:60.0
Current RPI:60
Expected SOS:74
Current SOS:74
Current Record:21-11
Expected Record:21-11
Current Conf Record:15-5
Expected Conf Record:15-5
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-1
Current OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:156
Expected OOC SOS:75



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-1160.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Temple.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13North Carolina (5.0)ACCN91-67L0%0.0
11-19Minnesota (257.0)B10N70-75W100%0.0
11-20Butler (57.0)BEN74-69L0%0.0
11-22Utah (8.0)P12N74-68L0%0.0
11-29Delaware (274.0)CAAH69-50W100%0.0
12-2Fairleigh Dickinson (205.0)NECH79-70W100%0.0
12-5Wisconsin (43.0)B10A76-60L0%0.0
12-9Penn (283.0)IvyA73-77W100%0.0
12-13Saint Joseph's (22.0)A10H65-66L0%0.0
12-19Delaware St. (345.0)MEACH78-63W100%0.0
12-29Cincinnati (48.0)AmerA70-77W100%0.0
1-2Houston (87.0)AmerH50-77L0%0.0
1-5Connecticut (32.0)AmerA53-55W100%0.0
1-9East Carolina (217.0)AmerH78-60W100%0.0
1-13Memphis (139.0)AmerA67-65L0%0.0
1-16Cincinnati (48.0)AmerH67-65W100%0.0
1-20La Salle (232.0)A10N49-62W100%0.0
1-24SMU (13.0)AmerH89-80W100%0.0
1-27East Carolina (217.0)AmerA64-61L0%0.0
1-31South Florida (230.0)AmerA63-70W100%0.0
2-4Tulsa (58.0)AmerH83-79W100%0.0
2-6UCF (219.0)AmerA60-62W100%0.0
2-11Connecticut (32.0)AmerH63-58W100%0.0
2-14South Florida (230.0)AmerH77-65W100%0.0
2-17Villanova (4.0)BEH67-83L0%0.0
2-21Houston (87.0)AmerA66-69W100%0.0
2-23Tulsa (58.0)AmerA74-55L0%0.0
2-27UCF (219.0)AmerH63-61W100%0.0
3-3Memphis (139.0)AmerH72-62W100%0.0
3-6Tulane (227.0)AmerA56-64W100%0.0
3-11South Florida (230.0)AmerN79-62W100%0.0
3-12Connecticut (32.0)AmerN62-77L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Temple's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Temple's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Temple.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TempleAmer26.3626.3664.6764.677.737.73
ConnecticutAmer5.505.5074.1974.192.662.66
South FloridaAmer5.475.4726.6726.67-2.55-2.55
MemphisAmer4.054.0556.2556.250.510.51
CincinnatiAmer4.024.0273.3373.331.871.87
East CarolinaAmer3.953.9536.6736.67-1.05-1.05
UCFAmer3.943.9442.8642.86-0.56-0.56
TulsaAmer3.923.9265.5265.521.221.22
HoustonAmer3.923.9272.4172.411.761.76
TulaneAmer2.612.6136.3636.36-0.71-0.71
SMUAmer2.432.4386.2186.211.761.76
VillanovaBE1.741.7484.8584.851.211.21
DelawareCAA1.711.7124.1424.14-0.88-0.88
Saint Joseph'sA101.671.6778.7978.790.960.96
PennIvy1.661.6638.4638.46-0.38-0.38
La SalleA101.661.6627.5927.59-0.74-0.74
ButlerBE1.661.6666.6766.670.550.55
Delaware St.MEAC1.641.6417.2417.24-1.08-1.08
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC1.611.6156.6756.670.210.21
UtahP121.591.5975.0075.000.790.79
WisconsinB101.591.5961.2961.290.360.36
MinnesotaB101.591.5926.6726.67-0.74-0.74
North CarolinaACC1.591.5981.8281.821.011.01
George WashingtonA100.240.2469.7069.700.100.10
GeorgetownBE0.210.2145.4545.45-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.200.2063.6463.640.050.05
Seton HallBE0.190.1975.7675.760.100.10
NebraskaB100.170.1747.0647.06-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.170.1774.1974.190.080.08
MarylandB100.170.1775.0075.000.080.08
Ohio St.B100.160.1660.6160.610.030.03
DavidsonA100.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
MassachusettsA100.150.1543.7543.75-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.150.1553.1253.120.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.150.1513.7913.79-0.11-0.11
Savannah St.MEAC0.150.1548.2848.28-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.150.1570.5970.590.060.06
XavierBE0.150.1584.3884.380.100.10
ProvidenceBE0.140.1469.7069.700.060.06
SyracuseACC0.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
DrexelCAA0.130.1320.0020.00-0.08-0.08
Robert MorrisNEC0.130.1331.2531.25-0.05-0.05
College of CharlestonCAA0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
IllinoisB100.120.1244.1244.12-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.120.1255.1755.170.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.120.1225.8125.81-0.06-0.06
MarquetteBE0.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
CaliforniaP120.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
Sacred HeartNEC0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.120.1248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.110.1165.5265.520.030.03
PrincetonIvy0.110.1177.7877.780.060.06
TowsonCAA0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.100.1022.5822.58-0.06-0.06
James MadisonCAA0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
StetsonASun0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.100.1076.6776.670.050.05
Missouri St.MVC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
RutgersB100.100.1019.3519.35-0.06-0.06
Arkansas Little RockSB0.100.1087.1087.100.070.07
IndianaB100.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
PurdueB100.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
DaytonA100.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
Miami FLACC0.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
NorthwesternB100.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.100.1022.5822.58-0.05-0.05
Oregon St.P120.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
StanfordP120.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
DePaulBE0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
St. John'sBE0.100.1022.5822.58-0.05-0.05
GonzagaWCC0.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
New HampshireAE0.090.0958.6258.620.020.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.090.0914.2914.29-0.07-0.07
OklahomaB120.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
TexasB120.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
BrownIvy0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
YaleIvy0.080.0877.7877.780.050.05
LafayettePat0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
HofstraCAA0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
George MasonA100.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0822.2222.22-0.04-0.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.080.0879.3179.310.040.04
IonaMAAC0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
WashingtonP120.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
DuquesneA100.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Wichita St.MVC0.070.0774.1974.190.040.04
Michigan St.B100.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
ColoradoP120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0721.8821.88-0.04-0.04
St. BonaventureA100.070.0773.3373.330.030.03
IUPUISum0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
AlbanyAE0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
Boston UniversityPat0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
NJITASun0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
OregonP120.070.0781.8281.820.050.05
TroySB0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
UABCUSA0.070.0780.6580.650.040.04
DukeACC0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
FurmanSC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
MaineAE0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0725.9325.93-0.03-0.03
UMass LowellAE0.070.0735.7135.71-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
CornellIvy0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
HarvardIvy0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
DetroitHorz0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Miami OHMAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
TCUB120.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
BryantNEC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
LSUSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
OhioMAC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0518.5218.52-0.03-0.03
WyomingMWC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Penn St.B100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0562.8662.860.010.01
RichmondA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Saint LouisA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
Texas TechB120.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
USCP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Washington St.P120.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Notre DameACC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0511.1111.11-0.04-0.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
BradleyMVC0.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
LamarSlnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0339.3939.39-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.030.033.453.45-0.02-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0344.1244.12-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
VMISC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.020.0229.1729.17-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Arizona St.P120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
IPFWSum0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
AkronMAC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
FloridaSEC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Kansas St.B120.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
LibertyBSth0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
MercerSC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.020.0282.1482.140.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00