live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog

Below are summary statistics for end-of-season RPI Ranks using 10,000 simulations of all future games.

Using the probability of winning for each team and each future game, 10,000 simulated seasons are run, the resulting RPIs are sorted and ranks are assigned. Expected Rank is the mean from these simulations. All 10,000 Ranks are presented for each team in histograms found by clicking on the team name. You can think of the min and max as the best and worst case scenarios for the team.
How does the RPI Forecast work?

Some numbers (e.g., 1-50 W-L, 51-100 W-L, etc.) are rounded and may not sum up to totals.

EXPECTED RPI RANK is the best estimate for an individual team of its end-of-season RPI Rank. Because they are expectations, they do not have to be 1, 2, 3, etc.
OVERALL is the one most likely overall outcome for all Division 1 teams if I am forced to rank teams 1, 2, 3, etc. It corresponds to the RPI Forecast number column and may not be the same as ranking the Expected RPI Rank column.

Tweet
Through games of Jan 22, 2018.


Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
1.9VillanovaBE1.31111123517
3.0DukeACC2.21111246926
3.8VirginiaACC2.711123571130
6.0KansasB123.6122457111636
6.2XavierBE3.8113458111639
6.4PurdueB103.1133468101533
6.7North CarolinaACC3.8123468111633
10.9CincinnatiAmer5.414671013182454
14.2Rhode IslandA107.235791218243259
14.3ClemsonACC7.914691318253458
14.5NevadaMWC6.2368101318233054
16.0ArizonaP127.5368101420263562
18.1AuburnSEC9.8157111624324265
18.2Wichita St.Amer7.73710131722293770
18.9West VirginiaB129.4369121724324274
20.2KentuckySEC10.5269121826354673
20.7Michigan St.B107.951012151925323964
20.7Ohio St.B108.64911151925334264
22.3OklahomaB1211.71691320293950102
22.8LouisvilleACC11.02710142129384883
23.4TCUB1211.22711152230394984
24.4TennesseeSEC11.13812162331405077
25.7Seton HallBE11.22913172433415182
25.8FloridaSEC11.34913172432415289
25.9Miami FLACC11.33913172433425279
26.2Texas TechB1213.02811162434445794
29.4Texas A&MSEC12.531015202837475796
29.5CreightonBE12.141115202837465696
31.6Arizona St.P1212.861216223039496196
32.6Middle TennesseeCUSA10.3101620253139465688
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
33.7BuffaloMAC11.191721263240495994
33.9GonzagaWCC7.4162225293338445182
34.7Saint Mary'sWCC8.9122024283440465487
34.7USCP1211.471621263442505996
37.6ButlerBE13.2715212837465566104
37.9MichiganB1012.991722283746556697
39.3Boise St.MWC12.7919243038475668108
39.8Florida St.ACC13.6617233039485869111
40.1AlabamaSEC15.1514212939506073107
41.6SMUAmer12.91020263241495870115
41.9ArkansasSEC16.4615223040526378124
42.0HoustonAmer13.31019253241505971108
43.2New Mexico St.WAC9.72128323642495666119
43.7TexasB1214.4618263443536274104
44.3ProvidenceBE13.8820273544536273110
45.2Western KentuckyCUSA11.61326313744526071107
45.2SyracuseACC15.4818263445556579124
45.8MissouriSEC16.5818263444566783134
50.0St. BonaventureA1015.11525323949596984142
50.9MarylandB1016.01024324049607288145
52.9MarquetteBE15.8925334252637488131
55.3VermontAE10.73139434854616980131
57.8Missouri St.MVC16.21932394656677995160
57.8Notre DameACC15.61631394756677893140
58.2Loyola ChicagoMVC16.72131394656688096141
59.0Kansas St.B1217.01329394758698296135
61.2East Tennessee St.SC13.93240455159698094131
61.4Louisiana LafayetteSB15.33039455059708298176
61.7TempleAmer15.21936445160708196137
63.2BYUWCC12.43042495562707992133
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
63.3UCLAP1218.118334251617488104148
65.8South Dakota St.Sum16.629414754637588106163
67.2UtahP1219.415364553657994111157
68.0GeorgiaSEC21.213324353658196115151
68.5OregonP1218.424394756667993110165
68.8BaylorB1221.314344454668298117154
69.1UCFAmer17.818394857678092109146
71.1South CarolinaSEC20.312364757698498116157
71.4Virginia TechACC20.018384857698398116166
71.5ToledoMAC19.725414958688398119180
74.5Old DominionCUSA17.632475462728599116163
76.1WashingtonP1220.6174152617489104122161
80.1NortheasternCAA20.9334756657793109128176
81.7BelmontOVC16.0495864707991103120174
82.8DavidsonA1023.1294756667996114137196
84.1Utah ValleyWAC21.9335059688197114135191
84.5ColoradoP1222.1194757688399115132174
86.6BucknellPat17.8516166738497110129181
86.6San Diego St.MWC22.63651607083100117139189
87.4Murray St.OVC18.5526267738498113132190
88.2FurmanSC20.74456647385100117136192
89.4StanfordP1221.83353637487103119137167
89.7TowsonCAA22.84356637287104121144187
89.8Northern KentuckyHorz17.75665707787100114132179
93.5William & MaryCAA24.13654647691110128146190
95.1IonaMAAC21.35062707992108124144187
95.1Oklahoma St.B1225.82650637693112130150183
95.5St. John'sBE22.53056677994111126142171
98.1MinnesotaB1022.64259708196113130147177
98.2MontanaBSky23.15263718195112130151200
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
98.5South DakotaSum20.55266748396111127145184
100.1Boston CollegeACC26.63155668098118137156187
100.9MarshallCUSA25.93559698198118137158205
101.9WyomingMWC25.740587083100119138157198
102.0LSUSEC25.626587083100120137155193
102.7NebraskaB1026.835576983101121139158195
102.8ConnecticutAmer23.930617385101119135152184
103.2Fresno St.MWC24.938627285101119137157199
104.7North Carolina St.ACC27.334577084104124141160203
104.8RiderMAAC25.545627386103121140160217
105.2IndianaB1026.133607285103123141159193
105.6HofstraCAA23.948657588104122139156193
106.2UC DavisBW27.345627386103124144165218
107.8UC Santa BarbaraBW27.148647588105125145166212
108.4College of CharlestonCAA28.648637487105127148173222
108.5TulaneAmer24.540667891107125141160204
111.0Mississippi St.SEC32.321556986109133154176219
111.2Wright St.Horz25.152688092109128145165210
111.7DaytonA1026.848667992110130148169219
112.4Iowa St.B1225.330647994112131146160183
115.4MississippiSEC28.735637894115136154171203
115.5Penn St.B1025.443698397115133149167203
115.9Ball St.MAC31.041637792114137158180230
118.0UNC GreensboroSC27.548708397115137156175214
118.0Georgia SouthernSB28.050688297116137155175226
118.2WoffordSC28.747678197116138156176236
118.3MemphisAmer25.3447185100118136151168213
118.3AlbanyAE22.8607990102117134148166214
119.2Illinois St.MVC28.044698399119140157174207
120.9Northern IowaMVC29.750698399120142162183229
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
121.1UT ArlingtonSB25.7627788102120138155174216
122.1Portland St.BSky26.0587789102120140157174212
123.3Stephen F. AustinSlnd27.4587989103121142161182236
123.5BradleyMVC30.4466884102124146165183221
124.0UNLVMWC25.2547891106124142157175221
125.5CanisiusMAAC25.5648294107124143160179226
126.1Southern IllinoisMVC29.3447288104125146165183217
126.7UABCUSA26.4578093107125145162181231
127.8TulsaAmer25.0548295109127146160177217
127.8VCUA1027.7537892108127147165184226
129.0NorthwesternB1028.9537591108129150168186217
130.4WisconsinB1027.7517894110130151167184212
132.1LipscombASun26.8648798112130150168188239
134.2Wake ForestACC25.75383100117135153167182212
135.2Georgia St.SB27.36085100116135154171190239
138.7OaklandHorz22.47899110123138154168185226
140.3VanderbiltSEC28.54584102121141162177192221
140.4Indiana St.MVC29.05885101119140161179195228
140.5PrincetonIvy26.57294106121140159176195237
142.3UNC AshevilleBSth27.76991106122142162179198236
142.7RadfordBSth27.86791106123142163180198241
143.0San DiegoWCC23.96296112127143159174189227
143.6ElonCAA29.05388105123143163181200243
144.0WagnerNEC29.57291107123143164183203255
144.1Oregon St.P1229.85485105123145166183200229
144.1GeorgetownBE24.35293112128145162175187211
145.3Northern ColoradoBSky29.46189107124145166185204245
146.3IdahoBSky26.77396111127146165182199267
146.9Georgia TechACC26.45393111129149166180193212
146.9Central MichiganMAC33.35283102123149171190210253
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
148.5Grand CanyonWAC22.787107119132147164179194233
149.9Florida Gulf CoastASun20.796115123134149163178194251
150.4Saint Joseph'sA1030.46592111129150172190209241
151.6ValparaisoMVC30.06192111131153174190208239
151.9Jacksonville St.OVC25.275105119134152169185202244
152.6Robert MorrisNEC24.189108121135152169184201238
156.4IowaB1025.363105123139158174188202223
157.2New MexicoMWC28.470103120137157177194211251
157.7St. Francis PANEC28.386105120137158178195214272
159.2EvansvilleMVC29.75697118138160180197212238
159.8Louisiana TechCUSA27.974104123141160179196214251
160.0HawaiiBW31.66798119138161183202221270
160.5Cal St. FullertonBW31.66699118137161183201220256
161.0DrakeMVC29.154100122141162182197212235
163.3WinthropBSth25.198117130146163180196214265
163.9IllinoisB1026.475107128146166183197211239
164.0Western MichiganMAC28.171107127145165184200216253
167.6North Dakota St.Sum25.084118135151167185200216261
167.8Utah St.MWC26.471114132150169186201216260
169.8Tennessee TechOVC27.872113133152171189204221260
170.4MercerSC25.395122137152170188204220264
171.7San FranciscoWCC22.285126143158172187200213253
171.8Washington St.P1226.266116137155173191204217242
173.2OhioMAC29.964112133153174195211228273
173.2MonmouthMAAC28.581117136154174194210227276
173.3PacificWCC23.896125142157174190204218246
173.5PennIvy26.485121138155174192207225261
175.4UC IrvineBW25.894123141158176194208223252
175.5Saint LouisA1027.879117138158177195211226257
175.7UMBCAE28.579117139157176195211228269
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
176.3Colorado St.MWC22.573128146162178192204216235
177.4Eastern MichiganMAC33.068108132155178201219237281
177.8HarvardIvy31.075115137157179200218236277
181.1La SalleA1026.585126146164182201215229267
182.4Weber St.BSky29.492124144162183203220239280
185.3Miami OHMAC27.967127148167187205220235260
186.0Kent St.MAC29.081126147167187207222238271
187.4DePaulBE20.0102143160175189202211221235
187.6NiagaraMAAC21.4102143160174189203214227251
188.0Fort WayneSum25.094138156170188206220234273
188.1PittsburghACC16.898150166178190200208215230
188.3RutgersB1024.387134156173190206218229249
189.0Bowling GreenMAC24.396138157173191206219232261
190.3ArmyPat25.7105139156172191208223240280
190.8CaliforniaP1218.0105151167180192204212221235
191.2Eastern WashingtonBSky27.097136156174193210225242282
191.7Long Beach St.BW24.993140158175193209223238268
197.0Stony BrookAE24.3111148165181198214228242287
198.4MassachusettsA1025.990144164182200217230246278
198.5Boston UniversityPat22.5118152169183199214227241276
199.0George WashingtonA1025.988144165182201218230245272
199.9SeattleWAC25.295146167184202218231246284
200.2Nicholls St.Slnd28.997143162181200219237255303
201.5RichmondA1023.4106153170186204218231243265
201.7YaleIvy26.6106147166184203220235252296
203.8ManhattanMAAC22.3127159175189204219232246290
205.6Southeastern LouisianaSlnd25.3115155173189206223238255298
206.3TroySB24.9116155173190207223237254295
211.2Tennessee St.OVC24.7115160179195212228242258297
212.7DuquesneA1024.2115161180197214229243257285
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
213.8North DakotaBSky26.1109158180197215232246262295
213.9Austin PeayOVC27.6105157177195214232249267311
214.2AkronMAC29.496152176196216234250268307
214.7Texas St.SB22.5117168185200216230242256281
216.6Cal St. BakersfieldWAC22.7127169187202218232245257280
217.6New OrleansSlnd28.4119162181198217236253274313
217.6North TexasCUSA23.4111170187203218234247262303
218.2FairfieldMAAC26.2122164183201219236251267312
219.5Oral RobertsSum23.4131172189204220236250263288
219.9NavyPat21.7135176191206221235247261291
220.4Montana St.BSky24.6122169188204221237251266308
220.6ColgatePat25.2127170188205222238253268314
221.5Sam Houston St.Slnd27.5119166186204223241256275318
222.5Southern MissCUSA26.596168189206224241255271298
223.1Western CarolinaSC20.4129179196210225237248260282
224.8High PointBSth27.3133171188205224243260279313
225.0George MasonA1022.1132178196211226240252265290
225.4DelawareCAA21.1126180198212227240251264284
225.4Northern IllinoisMAC26.1126171192209227244258273303
226.5LamarSlnd22.2153183198211226241255271320
226.8Texas SouthernSWAC22.7166187200210224240257276323
227.1UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC17.6156190204216227239249260286
227.3Abilene ChristianSlnd23.0143182197212228243257272308
228.2Gardner WebbBSth25.7127175195213229246261276311
234.2South AlabamaSB26.0132182201218235252267285317
236.3North Carolina A&TMEAC24.5154188205220236252268286324
237.1LibertyBSth21.3167196210223237251265280317
237.6LehighPat24.2151190207221238253269285319
238.1Central ArkansasSlnd22.5161194210223238253268283322
239.1Savannah St.MEAC26.1147188205221239257273290327
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
239.7Florida AtlanticCUSA22.9143193210225241256269282311
240.0Saint Peter'sMAAC24.2156193209224240257271288320
242.2North FloridaASun24.8148192210225242259274290319
242.3MilwaukeeHorz20.2170203217229242256268282312
242.9Southeast Missouri St.OVC21.7163199215229243258271285313
244.2Coastal CarolinaSB22.0167201216229244259273288315
248.6Air ForceMWC18.8161209224237250262272282299
249.0UTSACUSA23.7149203218233249266279295322
249.9Nebraska OmahaSum22.2151204221235251266278290316
253.0Central ConnecticutNEC22.7164207224237253269283296321
253.6HartfordAE19.4180214228241254267278290310
257.7Mount St. Mary'sNEC24.8169209226241258275290306334
258.1PortlandWCC17.4176222235247259271280289310
258.4Santa ClaraWCC19.6183219232245259272284295314
259.2New HampshireAE23.4183215229243259276290304337
259.6Illinois ChicagoHorz22.0179217232245259275288303325
260.9BrownIvy28.7146202223241261281298313335
260.9SamfordSC23.9163215231245261278292308330
261.4Morehead St.OVC24.7175212229244262279293307327
261.9UMKCWAC17.9192226239250262274285296318
262.5UNC WilmingtonCAA23.6162213231247263279293306326
262.8Loyola MarymountWCC20.9188221236249263278290302317
263.5Idaho St.BSky26.5156210229246264283298312333
264.7Southern UtahBSky25.1163214232248265283297310327
266.2Prairie View A&MSWAC24.7198221235249265284299317343
266.8CampbellBSth24.4171219235249266283299314338
266.8North Carolina CentralMEAC24.6195221235249266283300317346
267.3SienaMAAC21.6164223239253268283295306321
269.3Eastern IllinoisOVC24.9174219236252270287302315334
269.4Appalachian St.SB24.4185222238253270287301315339
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
269.9Eastern KentuckyOVC20.1192229244256271284296306324
271.3DrexelCAA20.5179228244258273286297307320
271.4SIU EdwardsvilleOVC19.2195232246259273285296305318
272.4DenverSum21.4191229244258273288300311332
276.2NJITASun25.6184226243259277295310324343
276.7LIU BrooklynNEC22.9194231246260277293307319337
278.4ColumbiaIvy27.0170223243260280298313326344
278.4James MadisonCAA21.6199235250264279294306317332
279.9CornellIvy25.7166225245262282299312323338
279.9Sacramento St.BSky23.7188231249264280298311322338
280.0East CarolinaAmer15.2199246260271282291298304315
280.4Fairleigh DickinsonNEC25.6187228246262281299313326342
280.9FordhamA1019.7192238254268283296305314328
281.3HamptonMEAC24.9205234249263281299314328345
282.2Cal PolyBW23.1174233251267284299311321338
282.6BinghamtonAE20.7188241255269283298309320338
283.4St. Francis NYNEC25.1180231249266284302316327342
284.2UTEPCUSA22.0203238254269286300312322338
287.3Grambling St.SWAC21.6214245259272288304316327342
287.7ChattanoogaSC20.5193245260274289303314323337
288.5FIUCUSA20.9210245260274290304316325338
288.9Bethune CookmanMEAC23.0205242258273290306319329345
291.0Louisiana MonroeSB24.2179237258275294309320329341
291.5Arkansas St.SB22.7202242261276293309320329344
293.5Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC20.5210251265279295309319329346
293.7Jackson St.SWAC23.4217246262277295311323334349
294.3Little RockSB23.4198244262279297312323332341
294.7Holy CrossPat19.5211253269282296309319327339
296.4DetroitHorz19.2220255270284298311320328340
296.8South FloridaAmer13.3221265279289299307312316326
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
297.8McNeese St.Slnd24.8173242263281301317328336346
299.1Western IllinoisSum22.2191248267285303317325332341
300.5IUPUIHorz20.7206256271286303317326333343
301.1Tennessee MartinOVC20.4216256273288303317326334345
301.3Norfolk St.MEAC21.7220255271286303318328337349
302.0CharlotteCUSA17.3221263279291304315323329341
302.1JacksonvilleASun18.7222261276290305316325332343
302.5UC RiversideBW21.0208256273289305319328335345
303.1QuinnipiacMAAC18.5223261278292306317325332340
304.4SouthernSWAC22.0225256273289306321332340349
304.5San Jose St.MWC15.2223269283295307316322327333
305.2Charleston SouthernBSth20.4205259277292308321330337347
306.0StetsonASun18.3225265280294308320328335344
308.1PepperdineWCC15.9240272286298310320327333344
309.2UMass LowellAE18.0213268284299312323330337346
310.3Morgan St.MEAC21.2228262280296313327336342349
311.5LafayettePat17.8227271287301314325332338345
313.5Kennesaw St.ASun19.2228269286302317328336341347
314.4Youngstown St.Horz17.0225274291304317327334339346
314.4The CitadelSC15.1242278293306317326331335342
314.5AmericanPat16.4239277292305317327333338345
314.9Loyola MDPat19.6224267286304319330337342348
315.2VMISC16.8228275292306318328334339346
315.8Sacred HeartNEC16.3238278293306318328335341347
316.2Northern ArizonaBSky14.7246281296308319327332337344
317.8MaristMAAC14.6241282298310321329334338344
318.6DartmouthIvy19.2221271292308323333340344349
321.9RiceCUSA13.8238288303314325332337341347
322.2Cleveland St.Horz15.9238283300313325334340344348
325.1Green BayHorz14.0242291306317328336340344348
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
326.2PresbyterianBSth12.5246295310320329335339343347
329.3South Carolina St.MEAC14.2245294310322333340344347351
330.9BryantNEC10.3262305317326333338342345348
331.4MaineAE10.3272305317326334339342345348
333.6Houston BaptistSlnd12.8261300316327337343346348351
334.0HowardMEAC12.1273303317328337343347349351
334.3LongwoodBSth8.6277313323330336341343345348
335.1Cal St. NorthridgeBW10.2251309321331338342345347350
335.3USC UpstateASun10.9262307321330338343346348350
335.6Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd13.6243298317330340345348349351
336.6Chicago St.WAC6.7285319328334338341343345348
336.7Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC10.0274311323332339344346348351
337.7Northwestern St.Slnd9.3253313325334340344347348350
338.0Incarnate WordSlnd11.1258307324334342346348349351
340.5Florida A&MMEAC8.9264317329337343347348350351
341.5Alcorn St.SWAC8.3282320331338344347349350351
342.7Coppin St.MEAC6.9290324334340345347349350351
343.4Alabama St.SWAC6.2278327336341345347349350351
348.5Alabama A&MSWAC2.4319342346348349350351351351
349.0Mississippi Valley St.SWAC2.3322343347349350350351351351
350.4Delaware St.MEAC1.1330347349350351351351351351