Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Bracket Busters - Blog

Below are summary statistics for end-of-season RPI Ranks using 10,000 simulations of all future games.

Using the probability of winning for each team and each future game, 10,000 simulated seasons are run, the resulting RPIs are sorted and ranks are assigned. Expected Rank is the mean from these simulations. All 10,000 Ranks are presented for each team in histograms found by clicking on the team name. You can think of the min and max as the best and worst case scenarios for the team.
How does the RPI Forecast work?

Some numbers (e.g., 1-50 W-L, 51-100 W-L, etc.) are rounded and may not sum up to totals.

EXPECTED RPI RANK is the best estimate for an individual team of its end-of-season RPI Rank. Because they are expectations, they do not have to be 1, 2, 3, etc.
OVERALL is the one most likely overall outcome for all Division 1 teams if I am forced to rank teams 1, 2, 3, etc. It corresponds to the RPI Forecast number column and may not be the same as ranking the Expected RPI Rank column.

New! For Simulations INCLUDING CONFERENCE TOURNAMENTS, click here (updated at least weekly)

Through games of Mar 11, 2010.

Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
1.0	Kansas	B12	0.0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
2.2	Duke	ACC	0.6	2	2	2	2	2	2	3	5	5
3.2	Kentucky	SEC	0.8	2	2	2	3	3	3	5	5	5
4.1	West Virginia	BE	0.6	2	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	6
4.6	Syracuse	BE	0.6	2	3	4	4	5	5	5	5	5
6.6	Kansas St.	B12	0.8	5	6	6	6	6	7	8	8	10
7.2	Baylor	B12	1.2	6	6	6	6	7	8	9	9	10
8.4	Georgetown	BE	1.2	7	7	7	7	8	9	10	11	12
8.5	New Mexico	MWC	1.2	7	7	7	8	8	9	10	11	11
10.9	Purdue	B10	3.2	8	8	9	9	10	10	18	19	21
12.6	Villanova	BE	1.3	10	11	11	12	12	13	14	15	15
12.7	Butler	Horz	1.2	9	10	11	12	13	14	14	15	15
12.8	Texas A&M	B12	2.1	7	8	9	12	13	14	15	15	16
14.5	Tennessee	SEC	4.6	8	10	10	11	11	20	21	22	22
14.7	Wisconsin	B10	3.4	10	11	12	12	13	15	21	22	23
15.3	Pittsburgh	BE	0.7	13	14	14	15	15	16	16	16	16
17.5	Temple	A10	1.9	14	15	16	16	17	18	21	23	24
18.0	Northern Iowa	MVC	1.0	14	16	17	17	18	19	19	20	20
18.5	Maryland	ACC	3.0	14	15	16	16	17	22	23	24	24
20.2	Xavier	A10	2.4	15	17	18	18	19	23	24	24	24
20.5	California	P10	1.4	16	18	19	20	20	21	22	24	27
20.7	Brigham Young	MWC	1.6	15	18	19	20	21	22	23	23	24
22.4	Vanderbilt	SEC	2.0	18	20	20	21	22	23	26	27	29
25.4	Michigan St.	B10	2.5	19	22	22	23	24	28	29	29	30
25.6	Richmond	A10	2.7	23	23	24	24	25	26	27	34	36
27.2	Utah St.	WAC	3.4	23	24	25	25	26	27	34	35	36
27.7	Old Dominion	CAA	0.9	24	26	27	27	28	28	29	29	30
28.0	Ohio St.	B10	3.3	23	25	26	26	27	28	35	36	39
29.3	Texas	B12	1.0	26	27	28	29	29	30	30	31	31
29.4	San Diego St.	MWC	4.6	22	23	24	24	32	34	34	35	36
Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
29.7	Oklahoma St.	B12	0.9	26	28	29	29	30	30	31	31	33
31.1	Siena	MAAC	0.9	28	29	30	31	31	32	32	33	34
33.8	Clemson	ACC	1.0	29	32	32	33	34	35	35	35	36
34.0	Florida St.	ACC	3.6	29	30	31	32	32	34	40	42	43
35.2	Texas El Paso	CUSA	3.8	29	31	32	32	33	40	41	42	43
36.0	St. Mary's	WCC	1.0	33	34	35	35	36	37	37	38	40
36.6	Gonzaga	WCC	0.9	33	35	35	36	37	37	38	38	40
38.4	Louisville	BE	1.0	35	37	37	38	38	39	40	40	41
39.4	Wake Forest	ACC	1.1	35	37	38	39	39	40	41	41	43
40.1	Georgia Tech	ACC	3.8	31	34	35	36	42	43	44	45	48
40.8	Rhode Island	A10	3.9	34	36	37	38	39	45	46	48	50
42.7	Wichita St.	MVC	1.2	40	40	41	42	43	43	44	45	47
45.4	Missouri	B12	1.4	40	43	44	44	45	46	47	48	51
45.4	UAB	CUSA	1.5	40	43	43	44	45	46	47	48	51
45.6	Marquette	BE	4.7	37	39	40	41	47	50	51	52	53
46.8	Notre Dame	BE	4.0	36	39	40	46	48	49	50	51	53
48.0	Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	5.5	39	40	41	42	51	53	54	55	55
48.4	Virginia Tech	ACC	4.9	40	42	43	44	46	54	54	55	55
48.4	Washington	P10	3.1	42	45	46	46	47	49	54	56	57
49.3	Dayton	A10	5.1	40	41	42	43	52	53	54	55	55
49.5	Kent St.	MAC	1.5	45	47	48	48	50	51	51	52	53
49.6	Cornell	Ivy	1.4	45	47	48	49	50	51	51	52	53
50.5	Florida	SEC	3.8	42	44	46	47	52	54	55	55	57
52.3	Oakland	Sum	1.2	49	50	51	51	52	53	54	54	55
55.8	Murray St.	OVC	0.9	54	55	55	55	56	56	57	58	60
56.5	Mississippi	SEC	4.0	48	50	51	52	59	60	61	61	63
57.6	William & Mary	CAA	1.3	55	55	56	57	58	59	59	60	61
58.3	Memphis	CUSA	1.2	54	56	57	57	58	59	60	60	61
59.8	Seton Hall	BE	0.9	56	58	59	59	60	60	61	61	62
59.9	Nevada	WAC	5.5	55	56	56	57	58	59	71	73	75
Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
61.5	Cincinnati	BE	0.7	60	61	61	61	61	62	62	63	65
62.6	Connecticut	BE	0.9	60	61	62	62	63	63	64	64	65
62.7	Tulsa	CUSA	4.9	54	55	55	56	66	66	67	67	68
63.1	Arizona St.	P10	0.9	61	61	62	62	63	64	64	65	66
64.8	Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.7	63	64	64	64	65	65	66	66	67
64.9	New Mexico St.	WAC	3.7	54	56	58	65	66	67	68	69	71
67.1	Marshall	CUSA	0.8	65	66	66	67	67	68	68	69	70
68.3	Mississippi St.	SEC	4.6	61	62	63	64	65	73	74	75	76
69.3	Wofford	SC	1.2	67	67	68	68	69	70	71	72	74
70.1	South Florida	BE	1.2	66	68	69	69	70	71	72	72	75
71.0	Texas Tech	B12	1.3	67	69	69	70	71	72	73	73	75
72.7	Minnesota	B10	4.5	65	67	67	68	75	77	78	79	79
73.3	Northeastern	CAA	1.0	71	72	72	73	73	74	75	75	77
74.4	Sam Houston St.	Slnd	4.4	68	70	70	71	72	80	81	82	83
74.8	Illinois St.	MVC	1.0	72	73	74	74	75	75	76	77	78
75.2	Louisiana Tech	WAC	2.9	65	68	70	75	76	77	78	78	80
76.4	Charlotte	A10	1.1	74	74	75	76	76	77	78	78	80
77.1	Illinois	B10	2.8	68	70	72	77	78	79	79	80	82
79.3	Portland	WCC	1.1	76	77	78	79	79	80	81	81	83
80.0	Fairfield	MAAC	1.3	77	78	78	79	80	81	82	82	83
80.5	St. Louis	A10	4.5	73	73	74	75	83	84	85	86	87
80.8	Wright St.	Horz	0.8	78	79	80	80	81	81	82	82	83
82.3	St. John's	BE	0.5	80	82	82	82	82	83	83	83	83
84.7	Morehead St.	OVC	1.1	83	83	84	84	84	85	86	87	90
85.7	Weber St.	BSky	1.1	83	84	85	85	86	86	87	89	91
87.0	IUPUI	Sum	1.0	84	85	86	86	87	88	88	89	91
87.9	Iona	MAAC	1.3	84	86	86	87	88	89	90	90	93
88.6	Indiana St.	MVC	0.9	86	87	87	88	89	89	90	90	92
88.8	Akron	MAC	6.0	83	83	83	83	85	96	96	97	99
90.3	Missouri St.	MVC	1.0	86	89	89	90	90	91	92	92	96
Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
91.9	College of Charleston	SC	1.3	89	89	90	91	92	93	94	94	96
92.2	North Carolina	ACC	1.3	87	90	90	91	92	93	94	95	97
92.3	South Carolina	SEC	1.2	89	90	91	91	92	93	94	95	96
94.2	Arizona	P10	0.9	91	93	93	94	94	95	95	96	98
94.7	Alabama	SEC	4.7	83	83	85	96	97	97	98	99	102
95.6	Montana	BSky	1.0	94	94	94	95	96	96	97	98	99
97.4	North Carolina St.	ACC	4.4	85	88	90	97	99	101	102	103	106
98.4	Harvard	Ivy	1.1	96	97	97	98	98	99	100	101	104
99.2	Georgia	SEC	6.4	84	85	87	100	102	103	104	105	107
99.8	Appalachian St.	SC	1.2	97	98	98	99	100	101	101	102	104
102.1	Miami FL	ACC	5.9	92	94	95	96	105	107	108	110	112
102.6	North Texas	SB	1.1	99	101	101	102	103	103	104	105	107
104.4	UC Santa Barbara	BW	6.8	97	98	99	100	101	114	115	117	124
104.9	Bradley	MVC	1.1	101	103	103	104	105	106	106	107	108
106.5	Morgan St.	MEAC	4.5	100	102	102	103	105	111	114	116	118
106.9	Southern Mississippi	CUSA	6.8	97	98	99	100	111	113	114	115	117
106.9	Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	1.3	103	104	105	106	107	108	109	109	111
107.9	Buffalo	MAC	1.8	103	105	106	107	108	109	110	111	114
108.5	Ohio	MAC	5.8	100	102	103	104	105	115	116	117	120
109.1	Duquesne	A10	1.7	103	106	107	108	109	110	111	112	115
110.4	Troy	SB	1.5	105	107	108	109	110	111	112	113	116
110.9	Northwestern	B10	4.9	97	98	100	112	113	114	114	115	117
111.6	Southern California	P10	1.4	105	109	110	111	112	113	113	114	117
114.3	Creighton	MVC	0.9	110	112	113	114	114	115	115	116	117
117.4	Pacific	BW	9.5	106	108	109	110	111	129	131	132	135
117.9	Northern Colorado	BSky	1.3	116	116	116	117	118	119	120	121	124
117.9	Oklahoma	B12	2.1	112	115	116	116	118	120	121	122	126
118.8	Boston College	ACC	1.9	114	116	116	117	119	120	121	122	126
118.9	Colorado	B12	2.1	113	115	116	117	119	120	122	123	126
120.0	Colorado St.	MWC	2.1	113	116	117	118	120	121	123	124	127
Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
120.6	Long Beach St.	BW	10.1	103	105	106	108	127	128	129	130	133
123.5	Western Carolina	SC	1.2	119	121	122	123	123	124	125	126	128
123.5	East Tennessee St.	ASun	1.6	118	121	121	122	123	125	126	127	129
123.6	Iowa St.	B12	2.0	117	120	121	122	124	125	126	127	130
125.0	Virginia	ACC	4.2	103	106	123	125	126	127	127	128	130
125.4	Oral Roberts	Sum	1.5	119	122	123	125	126	126	127	128	130
127.2	Vermont	AE	10.7	116	116	117	118	120	140	142	143	145
128.0	Michigan	B10	7.8	105	109	111	129	131	132	133	134	137
129.5	Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	1.2	127	128	128	129	129	130	131	132	135
130.5	Niagara	MAAC	1.6	127	128	128	129	131	132	133	133	135
131.5	Robert Morris	NEC	1.5	127	129	130	130	131	133	133	134	136
133.8	Princeton	Ivy	1.2	131	132	132	133	134	135	135	136	140
134.3	Boston University	AE	8.1	118	121	123	125	139	141	142	143	145
134.9	Western Kentucky	SB	1.1	133	133	134	134	135	136	136	137	139
135.8	Miami OH	MAC	11.7	115	119	121	122	144	145	147	149	153
135.8	UCLA	P10	6.4	112	116	134	136	138	139	140	142	146
136.4	Belmont	ASun	1.4	133	134	135	135	136	137	138	139	143
137.9	Coastal Carolina	BSth	1.6	133	135	136	137	138	139	140	141	143
138.3	Oregon	P10	1.9	133	135	136	137	138	140	141	142	145
139.3	Providence	BE	1.8	133	136	137	138	139	141	141	143	146
141.0	Western Michigan	MAC	10.9	126	127	127	128	149	150	151	152	154
141.9	Houston	CUSA	9.7	127	131	132	133	135	152	153	154	156
142.3	Jacksonville	ASun	1.5	137	139	140	141	142	143	144	145	147
142.4	Rider	MAAC	1.6	137	139	140	141	142	143	144	145	148
143.3	Stony Brook	AE	1.5	137	140	141	142	143	144	145	146	149
143.6	Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	10.4	127	127	128	130	150	151	151	152	153
145.8	George Washington	A10	1.5	142	143	144	145	146	147	148	149	152
146.7	Hofstra	CAA	1.3	143	144	145	146	147	148	148	149	152
147.2	Nebraska	B12	1.9	141	144	145	146	147	149	150	151	153
148.3	Drexel	CAA	1.3	144	146	147	147	148	149	150	151	153
Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
149.0	Quinnipiac	NEC	1.3	143	146	147	148	149	150	151	151	153
152.1	Maine	AE	0.7	150	151	151	152	152	153	153	154	155
152.3	St. Bonaventure	A10	6.7	131	133	135	154	155	155	156	156	158
153.4	Auburn	SEC	0.9	150	151	152	153	153	154	155	155	157
154.6	Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.9	152	153	153	154	155	155	156	156	158
156.9	Lehigh	Pat	1.1	153	155	156	156	157	158	158	159	162
157.5	Arkansas	SEC	1.5	153	155	156	156	157	159	160	161	163
157.7	Utah	MWC	1.1	154	156	156	157	158	158	159	160	162
159.2	George Mason	CAA	0.9	157	157	158	159	159	160	160	161	162
160.0	Rutgers	BE	1.0	156	158	159	160	160	160	161	162	164
160.3	Stanford	P10	6.5	142	144	146	162	163	164	164	165	166
161.3	Winthrop	BSth	0.7	159	160	161	161	161	162	162	163	164
162.4	Washington St.	P10	0.8	160	161	161	162	162	163	163	164	165
164.1	Austin Peay	OVC	1.1	161	162	163	163	164	165	165	166	169
165.0	Denver	SB	0.7	163	164	164	165	165	165	166	166	167
166.1	Cleveland St.	Horz	1.0	163	164	165	166	166	166	167	168	171
167.7	Detroit	Horz	0.9	165	166	167	167	168	168	169	170	171
168.1	Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	1.3	164	166	167	167	168	169	170	171	172
169.0	Eastern Illinois	OVC	1.0	166	167	168	168	169	170	170	171	172
170.2	Southern Illinois	MVC	1.3	165	167	169	170	170	171	172	172	175
170.4	Radford	BSth	1.0	167	169	169	170	171	171	171	172	174
172.1	Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.7	170	171	171	172	172	172	173	174	175
172.9	Massachusetts	A10	5.7	153	155	172	174	175	175	176	176	176
173.4	Idaho	WAC	1.0	170	172	172	173	173	174	175	175	176
174.0	La Salle	A10	0.8	171	173	173	174	174	174	175	176	176
175.8	Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.5	173	174	175	176	176	176	176	176	177
177.2	San Jose St.	WAC	0.5	176	177	177	177	177	177	178	178	180
178.4	Saint Joseph's	A10	1.1	177	177	177	178	178	179	180	181	183
179.9	St. Peter's	MAAC	1.3	177	178	178	179	180	181	182	182	183
180.2	Davidson	SC	1.1	177	178	179	179	180	181	182	183	183
Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
180.3	Middle Tennessee	SB	1.7	177	178	178	179	180	182	183	183	184
181.8	Campbell	ASun	1.0	178	180	180	181	182	183	183	183	183
182.2	Drake	MVC	1.1	178	179	181	182	183	183	183	183	183
184.4	Oregon St.	P10	0.5	183	184	184	184	184	185	185	185	185
184.6	Valparaiso	Horz	0.5	183	184	184	184	185	185	185	185	185
187.0	Texas San Antonio	Slnd	1.3	186	186	186	186	186	188	189	190	191
187.9	Texas Christian	MWC	1.1	186	186	187	187	188	189	189	190	191
188.2	Bowling Green	MAC	1.4	186	186	186	187	188	189	190	191	191
189.7	Fresno St.	WAC	1.2	186	187	188	189	190	191	191	191	191
189.8	Central Florida	CUSA	1.2	186	187	188	189	190	191	191	191	191
190.1	Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	4.7	186	186	186	186	188	196	198	199	201
191.8	Seattle	ind	0.5	191	191	191	191	192	192	192	193	193
192.8	Penn St.	B10	0.6	191	192	192	192	193	193	194	194	194
193.6	Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.6	192	192	193	193	194	194	194	194	196
194.9	Central Michigan	MAC	0.6	193	194	194	195	195	195	196	196	197
196.7	Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.9	195	195	196	196	197	197	198	198	200
197.1	Jackson St.	SWAC	1.3	193	195	196	196	197	198	199	200	200
198.4	Northern Arizona	BSky	0.9	195	197	197	198	198	199	199	200	200
199.2	The Citadel	SC	1.1	195	197	198	199	199	200	201	201	202
200.4	Montana St.	BSky	0.8	198	199	200	200	200	201	201	202	204
201.7	Arkansas St.	SB	0.8	199	200	201	201	202	202	203	203	204
202.2	Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.8	200	201	201	202	202	203	203	203	204
203.7	Boise St.	WAC	0.8	200	202	203	203	204	204	205	205	208
204.6	Canisius	MAAC	0.9	202	203	203	204	205	205	206	206	208
204.9	Delaware St.	MEAC	9.1	194	194	195	196	213	214	214	215	218
206.6	Lipscomb	ASun	1.2	203	205	205	206	207	207	208	209	211
206.7	San Francisco	WCC	1.6	203	204	205	205	207	208	209	210	212
207.2	Cal St. Fullerton	BW	1.7	202	204	205	206	207	208	209	210	212
208.7	Iowa	B10	1.7	203	205	206	208	209	210	211	212	213
208.8	South Alabama	SB	1.6	205	206	207	208	209	210	211	212	213
Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
210.1	Southern Methodist	CUSA	1.5	204	207	208	209	210	211	212	213	213
211.2	Lafayette	Pat	1.1	207	209	210	211	211	212	212	213	213
212.1	DePaul	BE	0.8	207	210	211	212	212	213	213	213	213
213.8	Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.5	213	213	213	213	214	214	214	214	216
215.8	Florida Atlantic	SB	1.2	213	214	215	215	215	216	218	219	220
217.4	Ball St.	MAC	1.8	213	214	215	216	217	219	220	220	223
217.4	NC Asheville	BSth	1.4	214	215	216	216	217	218	219	220	220
217.6	Indiana	B10	1.7	213	215	215	216	218	219	220	220	222
217.9	Loyola MD	MAAC	1.4	215	215	216	217	218	219	220	220	220
218.9	Mercer	ASun	1.4	215	215	217	218	219	220	220	221	223
221.1	Portland St.	BSky	0.4	219	220	221	221	221	221	222	222	223
223.1	Louisiana St.	SEC	0.7	222	222	222	223	223	224	224	224	225
224.2	IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.7	222	223	223	224	224	225	225	225	227
224.3	South Dakota	GWC	4.5	220	221	222	222	222	223	234	236	238
225.9	Manhattan	MAAC	0.8	223	224	225	225	226	226	227	227	227
226.7	Texas Southern	SWAC	3.8	223	224	225	225	226	226	227	239	240
227.3	Wyoming	MWC	0.8	225	226	226	227	227	228	228	229	230
228.4	Binghamton	AE	0.9	225	227	227	228	228	229	229	230	231
229.7	East Carolina	CUSA	1.0	226	228	229	229	230	230	231	232	232
229.9	South Carolina St.	MEAC	8.1	219	221	222	223	231	233	246	250	252
230.2	San Diego	WCC	1.0	226	228	229	230	230	231	231	232	234
231.8	Liberty	BSth	0.9	228	230	231	231	232	232	233	233	235
233.8	South Dakota St.	Sum	1.3	230	231	232	233	234	235	236	236	238
234.5	North Florida	ASun	1.5	230	232	233	233	235	236	236	237	239
234.8	Texas Arlington	Slnd	1.9	229	231	232	233	235	236	237	238	240
235.2	Santa Clara	WCC	2.0	229	232	233	234	235	236	238	239	240
237.1	NC Wilmington	CAA	1.0	233	235	236	236	237	238	238	239	240
237.6	Delaware	CAA	1.4	231	235	236	237	238	239	239	240	240
238.8	Chattanooga	SC	0.8	234	237	238	238	239	239	240	240	240
239.7	UC Davis	BW	7.5	225	226	227	229	244	245	246	246	246
Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
240.6	Long Island	NEC	1.0	239	239	240	240	240	241	242	243	245
242.6	James Madison	CAA	1.5	239	240	241	241	242	244	245	246	246
242.8	Air Force	MWC	1.8	239	240	241	241	242	244	245	246	246
242.9	New Hampshire	AE	1.5	239	240	241	242	243	244	245	246	246
244.1	Louisiana Lafayette	SB	2.0	239	240	241	242	245	246	246	246	246
244.2	Texas St.	Slnd	1.4	239	241	242	243	244	245	246	246	246
247.7	Georgia St.	CAA	0.8	247	247	247	247	248	248	249	250	250
248.1	NC Greensboro	SC	1.2	246	246	247	247	248	249	250	250	250
248.9	Army	Pat	0.9	246	247	248	248	249	250	250	250	250
249.0	Evansville	MVC	1.1	246	247	247	248	249	250	250	250	250
251.5	Columbia	Ivy	0.5	250	251	251	251	251	252	252	252	253
251.5	Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.6	250	251	251	251	251	252	252	253	254
253.1	Hawaii	WAC	0.3	252	253	253	253	253	253	254	254	254
254.5	High Point	BSth	1.4	251	252	253	254	254	255	256	258	259
255.6	UC Riverside	BW	0.7	254	254	255	255	256	256	257	257	258
256.0	Cal Poly	BW	1.2	254	254	254	255	256	257	257	258	258
256.6	Brown	Ivy	1.2	254	254	255	256	257	257	258	258	259
257.5	Bethune Cookman	MEAC	1.8	254	254	254	257	258	258	260	260	261
258.9	Bucknell	Pat	0.6	257	258	258	259	259	259	259	260	261
260.0	Tennessee St.	OVC	0.6	258	259	259	260	260	260	261	261	261
262.9	Sacred Heart	NEC	1.4	261	261	261	262	263	264	265	266	267
263.1	Samford	SC	1.3	261	261	261	262	263	264	265	265	267
263.8	Norfolk St.	MEAC	2.3	260	261	261	262	263	266	267	267	269
264.0	Northern Illinois	MAC	1.7	261	261	262	263	264	265	266	267	268
264.1	Towson	CAA	1.7	261	261	262	263	264	266	266	267	267
264.9	Navy	Pat	1.2	261	262	263	264	265	266	266	267	267
267.5	Yale	Ivy	0.7	266	266	267	267	267	268	268	269	270
268.3	North Dakota St.	Sum	0.7	266	267	267	268	268	269	269	270	270
269.6	Elon	SC	0.7	269	269	269	269	270	270	271	271	272
271.2	Alabama St.	SWAC	7.0	258	259	260	261	275	276	277	277	278
Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
271.2	Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.9	270	270	270	271	271	272	272	273	275
271.3	Youngstown St.	Horz	1.2	269	269	270	270	271	272	273	274	276
272.8	Holy Cross	Pat	1.4	269	270	271	272	273	274	275	276	278
273.3	Louisiana Monroe	SB	1.1	269	271	272	273	273	274	275	275	276
274.4	Prairie View A&M	SWAC	1.2	270	272	273	274	274	275	276	277	279
276.0	UC Irvine	BW	0.8	274	275	275	275	276	276	277	277	278
277.7	Eastern Washington	BSky	0.8	276	277	277	277	278	278	279	279	282
277.9	Nicholls St.	Slnd	1.4	273	275	276	277	278	279	279	280	283
279.2	Hampton	MEAC	6.8	266	267	268	270	282	284	285	286	286
280.1	Furman	SC	1.2	277	278	279	279	280	281	282	283	285
280.9	Western Illinois	Sum	1.2	277	279	279	280	281	282	282	283	285
280.9	Tulane	CUSA	2.1	277	278	278	279	281	282	284	285	286
282.4	Missouri Kansas City	Sum	1.3	279	280	281	282	282	283	284	285	285
284.0	Longwood	ind	2.1	277	279	281	282	285	286	286	286	288
284.5	Charleston Southern	BSth	1.0	281	282	283	284	285	285	286	286	286
285.0	Kennesaw St.	ASun	1.1	279	283	284	284	285	286	286	286	286
287.1	St. Francis PA	NEC	0.3	286	287	287	287	287	287	287	288	289
288.2	Georgia Southern	SC	0.6	286	287	288	288	288	288	289	290	290
289.0	Monmouth	NEC	0.6	287	288	288	289	289	289	290	290	290
289.9	Colgate	Pat	0.7	288	288	289	290	290	290	291	291	291
290.8	Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.4	290	290	290	291	291	291	291	291	291
292.1	Lamar	Slnd	0.3	292	292	292	292	292	292	292	293	295
293.6	St. Francis NY	NEC	0.6	292	293	293	293	294	294	294	295	295
294.0	American	Pat	0.9	292	292	293	293	294	295	295	295	295
295.7	Florida International	SB	0.6	294	295	295	295	296	296	296	297	297
297.2	Sacramento St.	BSky	0.8	296	296	296	297	297	298	298	299	300
297.8	Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.9	296	296	297	297	298	298	299	299	300
298.1	Winston Salem St.	ind	6.4	292	292	293	293	295	307	308	310	310
299.5	Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.9	297	298	298	299	300	300	301	301	302
300.1	North Carolina A&T	MEAC	2.0	296	297	298	299	300	301	303	305	308
Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
300.8	Pennsylvania	Ivy	1.2	298	299	299	300	301	301	302	303	307
301.9	Albany	AE	1.1	299	300	300	301	302	303	303	304	306
303.3	Fordham	A10	1.6	298	300	301	302	303	304	305	306	308
303.9	Hartford	AE	1.3	299	301	302	303	304	305	306	306	308
304.4	Idaho St.	BSky	1.3	299	302	303	303	304	305	306	307	308
305.3	Pepperdine	WCC	1.3	298	302	304	305	306	306	307	307	308
306.9	Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	5.5	295	296	296	308	310	310	310	310	310
306.9	South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.6	302	306	306	307	307	307	308	308	308
308.5	Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.8	307	307	308	308	308	309	310	310	310
308.9	Central Connecticut	NEC	0.7	307	308	308	308	309	309	310	310	310
311.0	Rice	CUSA	0.0	311	311	311	311	311	311	311	311	311
312.5	Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.7	312	312	312	312	312	313	314	314	315
313.2	Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.8	312	312	312	313	313	314	314	314	316
313.5	Centenary	Sum	0.9	312	312	312	313	314	314	315	315	316
315.0	McNeese St.	Slnd	0.4	313	314	314	315	315	315	315	316	316
316.0	Savannah St.	ind	0.6	313	314	316	316	316	316	317	317	318
316.9	Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.3	316	316	316	317	317	317	317	317	319
318.2	Gardner Webb	BSth	0.4	317	318	318	318	318	318	319	319	319
319.0	Florida A&M	MEAC	0.8	316	318	318	319	319	319	320	321	322
320.3	Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.8	319	319	319	320	320	321	321	321	322
320.5	Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.6	319	319	320	320	320	321	321	321	322
322.0	SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.3	320	321	322	322	322	322	322	323	324
323.5	New Orleans	SB	0.6	322	323	323	323	323	324	324	325	326
323.7	Toledo	MAC	0.7	322	323	323	323	324	324	324	325	326
325.4	Stetson	ASun	0.9	323	324	324	325	325	326	327	327	327
325.8	Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.8	323	324	325	325	326	326	327	327	327
326.6	Southern Utah	Sum	0.5	325	325	326	326	327	327	327	327	327
329.1	Presbyterian	BSth	0.7	328	328	328	329	329	330	330	330	331
329.1	Howard	MEAC	0.7	328	328	328	329	329	330	330	330	331
330.2	Houston Baptist	GWC	2.6	328	328	328	328	328	333	333	335	335
Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
330.9	Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.6	330	330	330	331	331	331	332	332	333
331.6	Wagner	NEC	0.9	330	330	330	331	332	332	332	333	333
332.8	MD Baltimore County	AE	0.6	332	332	332	332	333	333	333	334	334
334.1	Marist	MAAC	0.3	334	334	334	334	334	334	335	335	335
335.0	Texas Pan American	GWC	2.1	328	330	331	336	336	336	336	336	336
335.2	Dartmouth	Ivy	0.4	335	335	335	335	335	335	336	336	336
337.4	Coppin St.	MEAC	0.5	337	337	337	337	337	338	338	339	339
338.5	Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.6	337	338	338	338	338	339	339	340	340
339.4	Grambling	SWAC	1.1	337	337	339	339	339	340	341	341	341
339.6	NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	1.9	337	337	337	337	341	341	341	342	342
340.2	North Dakota	GWC	0.5	339	339	340	340	340	340	341	341	341
342.6	Utah Valley	GWC	0.6	342	342	342	342	342	343	343	344	344
343.0	Southern	SWAC	0.6	342	342	342	343	343	343	344	344	344
344.7	Bryant	ind	0.7	344	344	344	344	345	345	346	346	347
345.2	Chicago St.	GWC	0.8	344	344	344	345	345	346	346	347	347
345.4	North Carolina Central	ind	2.4	341	341	342	342	347	347	347	347	347
346.1	Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.7	344	344	345	346	346	346	347	347	347