RPI Forecast

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Below are summary statistics for end-of-season RPI Ranks using 10,000 simulations of all future games.

Using the probability of winning for each team and each future game, 10,000 simulated seasons are run, the resulting RPIs are sorted and ranks are assigned. Expected Rank is the mean from these simulations. All 10,000 Ranks are presented for each team in histograms found by clicking on the team name. You can think of the min and max as the best and worst case scenarios for the team.
How does the RPI Forecast work?

Some numbers (e.g., 1-50 W-L, 51-100 W-L, etc.) are rounded and may not sum up to totals.

EXPECTED RPI RANK is the best estimate for an individual team of its end-of-season RPI Rank. Because they are expectations, they do not have to be 1, 2, 3, etc.
OVERALL is the one most likely overall outcome for all Division 1 teams if I am forced to rank teams 1, 2, 3, etc. It corresponds to the RPI Forecast number column and may not be the same as ranking the Expected RPI Rank column.
Through games of Feb 4, 2012.

Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
2.1	Syracuse	BE	1.7	1	1	1	1	1	3	4	7	14
3.4	Ohio St.	B10	2.3	1	1	1	2	3	5	6	9	24
4.2	Duke	ACC	2.5	1	1	1	2	4	6	7	10	26
4.3	Kentucky	SEC	2.2	1	1	2	3	4	5	7	10	24
4.6	North Carolina	ACC	2.8	1	1	2	3	4	6	8	11	31
6.8	Baylor	B12	3.5	1	2	3	4	6	9	11	15	31
8.2	Michigan St.	B10	4.4	1	2	3	5	7	10	14	20	40
8.8	Kansas	B12	3.7	1	4	5	6	8	10	13	18	33
9.6	Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	4.2	2	4	5	7	9	11	15	21	41
11.7	Missouri	B12	5.2	2	5	6	8	10	14	19	25	45
13.9	Georgetown	BE	5.9	2	6	8	10	13	17	22	28	58
14.9	Florida	SEC	6.3	2	6	8	10	14	18	23	30	54
15.5	Marquette	BE	6.6	3	7	8	11	14	19	25	31	54
15.8	Southern Mississippi	CUSA	6.6	4	7	9	11	14	19	25	32	61
16.3	St. Mary's	WCC	5.0	6	9	11	13	15	19	23	29	49
17.4	Wichita St.	MVC	6.2	5	9	11	13	16	21	26	33	53
20.6	Indiana	B10	8.0	7	9	11	15	19	25	31	40	63
21.0	Creighton	MVC	7.0	6	11	13	16	20	25	31	37	54
21.8	Wisconsin	B10	6.2	9	12	15	17	21	25	30	36	62
21.9	Florida St.	ACC	8.9	5	9	12	15	21	27	34	43	73
24.4	Temple	A10	8.6	7	12	15	18	23	29	36	45	74
25.3	Louisville	BE	9.5	4	11	14	18	24	31	38	47	78
25.3	Michigan	B10	10.4	4	9	13	18	24	32	39	49	79
25.8	Memphis	CUSA	9.0	9	13	16	19	24	30	38	48	90
26.6	San Diego St.	MWC	10.3	7	11	14	19	25	32	40	50	74
27.1	Connecticut	BE	10.3	6	11	15	20	26	33	41	50	76
27.9	Gonzaga	WCC	9.2	9	14	17	21	27	33	40	49	74
30.1	Murray St.	OVC	9.0	11	16	19	23	29	35	42	51	75
30.4	Alabama	SEC	10.4	9	14	18	23	29	36	45	55	86
30.8	New Mexico	MWC	9.0	11	17	20	24	30	36	43	52	79
Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
31.4	West Virginia	BE	11.3	8	14	18	23	30	38	46	57	85
31.5	Vanderbilt	SEC	9.7	8	15	20	25	31	37	44	53	82
32.0	St. Louis	A10	8.9	14	19	22	26	30	37	44	53	86
33.3	Colorado St.	MWC	12.3	5	13	18	24	32	41	50	60	79
36.7	Harvard	Ivy	9.0	18	24	27	30	35	42	49	59	96
39.1	Long Beach St.	BW	9.0	19	25	29	33	37	44	51	60	91
39.4	Illinois	B10	13.2	8	18	23	30	38	48	57	69	94
39.5	Virginia	ACC	11.7	11	21	26	31	38	47	55	65	94
39.6	Iowa St.	B12	11.9	11	20	25	31	38	48	55	66	103
41.7	Mississippi St.	SEC	13.5	11	20	26	32	40	50	60	72	99
42.4	California	P12	11.3	19	25	29	34	41	49	57	69	103
43.6	Oral Roberts	Sum	9.9	22	29	32	36	43	50	57	66	91
44.9	Brigham Young	WCC	7.3	25	33	36	40	44	49	55	61	87
45.9	Kansas St.	B12	12.6	12	25	30	37	45	54	63	74	96
46.0	Iona	MAAC	9.0	27	33	36	39	45	51	58	68	92
49.0	Akron	MAC	13.1	19	28	33	39	48	57	66	79	116
49.2	Saint Joseph's	A10	14.2	17	25	32	39	48	58	68	81	115
49.6	Middle Tennessee	SB	8.0	32	38	41	44	48	54	61	69	97
52.0	Cleveland St.	Horz	12.7	24	32	37	43	50	60	69	81	113
53.1	Seton Hall	BE	14.8	19	28	35	42	52	63	73	85	114
55.2	South Dakota St.	Sum	13.6	29	35	39	45	54	63	74	86	124
55.5	Wyoming	MWC	13.9	21	32	39	46	54	64	75	86	116
55.8	Xavier	A10	13.1	23	34	40	46	55	64	73	85	113
58.4	Texas	B12	15.6	20	32	39	47	57	69	80	91	126
60.5	Northern Iowa	MVC	13.2	26	38	44	51	59	69	79	89	114
61.3	Marshall	CUSA	15.4	23	35	42	50	60	71	82	95	124
62.9	North Carolina St.	ACC	14.7	22	37	44	52	62	73	83	93	114
63.3	Nevada	WAC	14.4	26	39	46	52	62	73	83	95	128
63.5	Ohio	MAC	15.6	27	38	45	52	62	74	85	97	124
64.0	Davidson	SC	13.2	29	42	47	55	63	72	82	92	123
Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
64.4	Miami FL	ACC	16.8	17	34	43	53	64	75	87	99	126
65.0	Purdue	B10	14.4	24	39	47	54	64	75	85	94	122
65.9	Arkansas	SEC	20.0	17	31	40	51	65	80	93	107	144
66.2	Northwestern	B10	17.4	18	35	44	54	65	77	89	102	127
66.5	Notre Dame	BE	16.3	23	38	46	55	66	77	88	101	133
68.5	Minnesota	B10	15.9	13	38	48	57	68	80	89	99	117
69.1	Washington	P12	15.6	30	42	50	57	68	80	91	102	131
69.1	La Salle	A10	16.1	28	40	49	57	69	80	91	102	130
70.0	Mississippi	SEC	16.9	21	39	48	57	70	83	92	102	119
70.5	Belmont	ASun	11.1	48	54	58	62	69	77	86	96	129
70.7	Buffalo	MAC	18.3	27	40	48	57	69	84	95	108	145
71.1	Bucknell	Pat	12.4	44	52	56	62	70	79	88	98	124
72.7	Central Florida	CUSA	18.1	24	40	50	59	71	85	97	109	136
73.3	New Mexico St.	WAC	14.6	36	48	55	62	72	83	93	104	142
74.5	Pittsburgh	BE	16.0	29	45	54	63	74	86	96	107	126
75.2	Colorado	P12	17.4	28	43	53	63	75	87	98	111	139
75.8	Arizona	P12	13.2	43	53	59	66	75	85	93	104	125
76.4	Massachusetts	A10	17.4	27	45	54	64	76	88	99	112	137
77.1	Dayton	A10	16.3	36	48	56	65	77	88	98	110	145
77.2	Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	13.2	46	54	60	67	77	86	95	104	129
79.2	Drexel	CAA	11.4	50	60	65	71	78	86	95	104	127
79.5	Duquesne	A10	16.4	34	49	58	68	80	91	100	112	134
82.4	Missouri St.	MVC	12.0	47	61	67	74	82	91	98	108	135
83.5	Wagner	NEC	7.4	65	72	75	78	83	88	93	101	133
83.9	Loyola MD	MAAC	15.4	43	55	64	73	84	94	103	115	150
84.1	Weber St.	BSky	17.2	40	54	62	71	84	96	106	119	159
84.8	Kent St.	MAC	18.5	35	51	61	71	85	97	109	122	160
85.2	Louisiana St.	SEC	17.9	33	52	62	73	85	98	109	121	153
86.8	Oregon	P12	15.9	36	56	65	76	88	98	107	117	139
89.8	Cincinnati	BE	16.9	40	57	68	78	90	101	111	123	154
Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
89.8	Oklahoma	B12	17.2	33	56	67	79	91	101	112	124	144
89.9	Stanford	P12	16.5	45	59	68	78	90	100	111	124	152
91.3	Denver	SB	12.6	61	71	76	82	90	99	108	119	161
93.2	Virginia Tech	ACC	15.9	45	62	72	82	94	104	113	123	152
93.8	St. Bonaventure	A10	19.2	39	58	69	81	93	106	118	133	175
94.6	George Mason	CAA	15.5	52	66	74	84	94	105	115	126	158
96.1	South Florida	BE	18.6	32	58	72	85	97	108	120	131	150
98.0	Mercer	ASun	13.2	65	74	80	89	97	107	116	125	152
98.5	Villanova	BE	18.9	38	62	74	85	98	111	124	137	161
100.3	Texas Arlington	Slnd	13.9	61	76	83	91	99	109	119	131	171
101.6	Montana	BSky	15.0	66	77	83	90	100	111	121	134	188
102.8	Valparaiso	Horz	14.5	62	76	85	93	102	112	122	133	166
102.9	Lamar	Slnd	14.4	66	79	86	93	101	112	122	135	175
105.7	Tulsa	CUSA	15.5	55	76	87	95	105	116	126	137	171
107.0	Loyola Marymount	WCC	12.6	66	84	92	98	107	115	124	133	159
107.1	Long Island	NEC	15.4	70	81	88	96	106	117	127	141	177
109.2	UCLA	P12	17.8	53	76	86	97	109	121	133	146	187
109.5	Illinois St.	MVC	16.8	63	79	88	98	108	120	132	144	178
109.7	Lehigh	Pat	10.4	83	92	97	102	109	116	123	133	160
111.2	Robert Morris	NEC	10.9	84	93	98	103	110	118	126	136	167
112.8	Maryland	ACC	16.6	52	79	91	101	114	124	134	144	168
113.9	Pennsylvania	Ivy	15.3	66	85	95	103	113	123	134	147	186
114.4	Oregon St.	P12	17.3	67	84	92	102	114	125	137	152	190
115.3	Manhattan	MAAC	12.6	82	94	100	106	114	123	132	143	173
115.4	NC Asheville	BSth	12.8	79	92	100	106	115	123	133	143	177
116.0	Coastal Carolina	BSth	20.6	65	80	91	101	114	129	143	160	212
117.5	Yale	Ivy	20.2	58	81	92	104	117	130	143	161	191
117.6	Princeton	Ivy	18.3	64	84	96	104	116	129	142	157	194
117.6	Nebraska	B10	17.6	55	82	95	106	118	129	140	152	170
120.3	Oklahoma St.	B12	15.8	60	88	99	110	121	131	140	150	165
Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
123.7	Texas Christian	MWC	19.3	52	86	99	111	124	136	148	164	180
125.0	North Dakota St.	Sum	17.6	82	96	104	112	123	135	148	166	207
125.1	Georgia St.	CAA	15.6	88	102	107	113	123	135	146	161	195
126.1	Old Dominion	CAA	14.6	79	99	108	116	126	136	145	156	181
127.3	Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	17.4	82	97	106	115	126	138	151	165	201
128.5	College of Charleston	SC	14.2	90	103	111	118	128	138	147	160	196
131.7	Norfolk St.	MEAC	15.4	96	107	114	121	130	141	153	168	202
132.0	Georgia	SEC	18.3	59	97	108	120	132	144	155	169	185
132.3	Utah St.	WAC	20.5	82	96	108	117	130	146	160	176	208
133.0	Indiana St.	MVC	18.7	78	98	110	120	132	145	159	171	196
135.2	Drake	MVC	18.1	77	103	112	123	134	146	160	173	206
135.3	Richmond	A10	18.2	78	102	113	122	134	148	158	172	199
135.3	Oakland	Sum	14.7	92	110	118	125	134	144	155	169	199
136.1	Tennessee Tech	OVC	16.6	89	106	115	125	135	147	158	171	200
136.4	Tennessee	SEC	22.0	60	95	108	122	136	151	166	182	213
138.4	Fairfield	MAAC	18.8	81	105	115	125	137	150	164	177	210
139.5	Iowa	B10	18.5	76	105	116	127	140	152	164	179	196
140.0	UAB	CUSA	18.3	79	105	116	127	140	152	164	177	196
140.3	Charlotte	A10	18.2	81	107	117	128	140	152	164	178	201
141.7	Rutgers	BE	18.7	74	105	118	129	141	154	167	178	199
143.2	Butler	Horz	17.1	95	112	122	131	142	155	166	179	210
146.8	Providence	BE	20.6	72	108	121	133	146	160	174	188	205
147.3	UC Santa Barbara	BW	20.7	91	112	122	133	145	160	177	192	239
147.6	Auburn	SEC	20.0	68	107	121	135	148	162	175	183	198
148.3	Clemson	ACC	21.2	86	110	122	133	147	162	177	193	216
150.3	Columbia	Ivy	19.9	89	115	125	136	150	163	176	192	224
150.9	American	Pat	20.8	92	113	124	136	150	164	179	193	230
151.0	Charleston Southern	BSth	21.6	103	118	124	135	148	165	182	198	241
151.1	St. John's	BE	18.8	81	114	127	138	151	165	176	186	203
152.1	San Francisco	WCC	17.5	92	117	130	139	152	165	174	187	204
Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
154.7	Stony Brook	AE	18.5	112	124	132	141	153	166	181	195	231
154.9	Texas A&M	B12	22.1	73	112	126	140	156	170	184	199	215
155.1	Bowling Green	MAC	23.2	89	114	126	138	154	172	186	201	235
155.4	Tennessee St.	OVC	19.4	95	118	130	142	155	170	180	194	210
156.6	Evansville	MVC	18.6	97	120	132	144	157	170	181	192	209
158.4	East Carolina	CUSA	23.1	82	114	128	142	159	175	189	202	218
158.6	Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	19.2	119	129	135	144	156	170	185	202	255
159.3	South Carolina Upstate	ASun	21.3	103	123	132	143	158	173	188	204	240
159.3	Louisiana Lafayette	SB	18.1	110	127	136	146	158	173	183	197	225
163.1	Youngstown St.	Horz	24.5	96	119	132	144	162	181	196	212	252
163.2	Penn St.	B10	17.2	101	129	141	151	164	176	185	195	211
164.1	Georgia Tech	ACC	20.1	105	127	138	150	163	178	191	204	232
164.6	Northeastern	CAA	18.3	108	129	141	151	165	178	188	200	225
164.6	Washington St.	P12	22.8	91	122	135	147	164	182	195	207	228
167.7	Cal St. Fullerton	BW	21.3	114	129	141	152	167	182	196	212	250
169.2	Texas San Antonio	Slnd	19.4	116	135	145	155	168	182	195	210	249
169.6	Idaho	WAC	21.4	106	131	142	154	169	185	197	213	255
171.6	Wake Forest	ACC	17.6	95	136	149	159	173	185	194	203	217
172.1	South Carolina	SEC	22.1	85	129	142	156	173	189	201	212	236
173.1	Vermont	AE	16.2	132	144	152	161	173	184	195	207	235
173.4	Wofford	SC	20.7	115	136	147	158	172	188	201	215	249
174.1	Western Michigan	MAC	24.5	97	128	142	155	173	192	207	220	256
174.5	Campbell	BSth	19.2	122	139	150	161	173	188	200	212	243
174.7	Air Force	MWC	21.0	96	132	148	159	176	191	200	212	226
174.9	Tulane	CUSA	26.1	98	125	140	157	176	193	208	225	257
175.1	Quinnipiac	NEC	19.5	123	138	150	162	174	188	202	214	238
175.2	Boston University	AE	16.5	125	145	155	163	175	186	197	209	240
176.5	Boise St.	MWC	23.0	100	132	145	161	177	193	207	218	239
177.4	Rice	CUSA	21.0	108	137	150	162	178	193	205	217	241
177.9	Western Illinois	Sum	21.9	106	134	149	162	179	194	206	219	242
Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
178.1	Texas El Paso	CUSA	22.9	96	133	148	161	178	195	208	220	242
178.3	Cornell	Ivy	26.5	94	126	141	159	180	199	211	228	264
178.3	Northwestern St.	Slnd	23.4	105	135	147	161	179	195	208	224	260
179.8	Florida Atlantic	SB	20.1	120	141	153	165	181	195	205	218	245
181.7	Detroit	Horz	21.0	120	142	154	167	183	196	209	222	255
183.0	North Florida	ASun	20.3	118	142	157	168	184	198	208	221	247
183.1	Delaware	CAA	20.1	125	145	156	170	182	197	210	223	252
183.3	Fresno St.	WAC	22.9	120	139	153	168	184	198	212	229	267
184.5	Hawaii	WAC	23.0	109	139	154	169	185	201	214	226	249
187.0	Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	28.8	100	132	150	167	186	206	225	245	277
187.2	DePaul	BE	18.3	113	149	163	175	189	200	210	218	236
187.7	Arkansas Little Rock	SB	19.8	124	148	162	174	188	202	213	224	248
187.8	Morehead St.	OVC	20.6	122	148	161	173	189	202	214	227	255
188.7	St. Francis NY	NEC	19.2	133	152	164	175	190	202	213	227	258
190.6	East Tennessee St.	ASun	22.0	123	149	162	174	190	206	219	233	268
192.6	Cal Poly	BW	17.5	144	161	170	180	192	204	216	230	269
196.0	South Alabama	SB	19.7	137	158	170	183	195	210	221	234	260
196.4	George Washington	A10	19.0	120	154	171	185	198	210	220	227	244
200.2	Austin Peay	OVC	17.9	133	165	177	189	200	212	223	235	262
203.3	North Texas	SB	21.9	130	160	176	187	204	220	230	246	274
204.7	Louisiana Tech	WAC	21.5	122	160	176	191	205	219	232	246	274
206.9	Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	21.0	132	163	179	194	207	221	235	245	269
207.4	Eastern Kentucky	OVC	20.3	145	167	181	192	208	222	233	248	274
207.8	NC Wilmington	CAA	18.4	138	168	183	196	210	221	231	239	253
207.8	Portland St.	BSky	23.7	131	161	177	192	208	224	239	255	288
208.1	Lipscomb	ASun	19.3	144	169	183	196	208	221	234	245	264
208.3	Albany	AE	20.6	153	168	182	194	208	222	236	249	279
208.7	Niagara	MAAC	18.7	146	172	185	196	209	221	233	245	272
210.2	Lafayette	Pat	16.6	148	177	188	200	211	221	232	242	263
210.4	Miami OH	MAC	21.9	128	163	182	196	211	225	238	252	280
Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
210.5	Eastern Washington	BSky	19.7	144	173	185	197	211	223	236	252	276
210.6	San Diego	WCC	20.0	138	170	185	197	212	225	236	248	267
210.9	Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	18.8	150	176	187	198	210	224	235	250	272
212.8	Florida International	SB	19.0	152	174	188	200	214	226	237	248	271
213.8	Rider	MAAC	19.6	136	174	188	200	214	227	239	250	271
214.3	Savannah St.	MEAC	23.1	153	171	186	197	213	230	246	264	293
214.4	Southern Methodist	CUSA	21.1	130	171	186	200	215	229	241	253	270
214.5	Coppin St.	MEAC	20.7	165	178	187	200	213	228	243	258	297
215.5	Portland	WCC	16.7	150	180	194	204	216	229	237	243	255
216.3	Wright St.	Horz	19.2	148	177	191	204	217	230	241	252	267
218.1	McNeese St.	Slnd	25.7	128	165	184	201	219	236	252	266	294
222.0	Utah Valley	GWC	19.7	166	188	197	208	220	235	249	264	292
222.5	Ball St.	MAC	22.0	152	181	195	207	222	238	251	267	292
223.5	Elon	SC	22.1	136	179	196	208	223	239	253	265	285
226.0	Siena	MAAC	21.6	149	183	197	211	227	241	254	268	288
226.1	Holy Cross	Pat	23.4	146	179	198	209	225	242	258	270	288
227.1	Southern Illinois	MVC	18.3	128	189	203	215	229	241	250	257	270
228.1	Georgia Southern	SC	22.9	146	180	199	214	227	244	259	270	290
228.9	Arkansas St.	SB	21.1	149	187	201	215	229	244	257	268	281
230.9	Furman	SC	20.7	163	192	204	216	231	246	258	272	291
231.1	Southern Utah	Sum	19.4	151	192	206	218	231	245	256	267	285
232.8	Southern California	P12	16.2	163	199	212	222	233	245	254	261	271
233.1	Houston	CUSA	22.0	139	186	204	219	234	249	262	272	286
233.7	Texas Tech	B12	11.9	172	208	217	227	235	243	248	252	261
236.3	Central Connecticut	NEC	21.3	156	192	210	222	235	252	265	275	293
239.2	Hofstra	CAA	16.7	181	206	218	227	239	251	261	271	287
240.2	Western Kentucky	SB	17.0	176	205	218	228	241	253	262	270	282
240.4	Missouri Kansas City	Sum	18.8	160	201	216	228	242	254	265	273	290
240.5	North Carolina Central	MEAC	23.3	171	196	210	225	241	257	271	285	306
241.2	Arizona St.	P12	15.0	170	209	221	232	243	252	260	267	280
Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
242.3	Sacred Heart	NEC	16.5	189	210	221	231	243	253	264	273	290
242.4	Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	21.3	163	199	215	228	242	258	270	281	298
243.2	Fordham	A10	16.2	164	207	221	233	245	257	263	267	279
244.5	Texas Southern	SWAC	21.5	186	204	216	230	242	260	274	286	310
244.7	Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	23.2	153	199	214	228	246	263	274	287	308
245.2	IUPUI	Sum	19.7	159	205	220	231	247	259	271	281	297
246.9	Eastern Michigan	MAC	20.0	159	204	220	234	248	262	272	280	293
248.0	Bradley	MVC	13.7	184	218	229	239	249	258	265	271	285
248.2	Boston College	ACC	14.6	181	215	228	239	250	260	265	270	278
249.5	Appalachian St.	SC	22.7	175	204	220	233	250	266	279	290	308
250.6	Rhode Island	A10	13.4	191	220	232	242	253	260	266	271	286
250.7	Pepperdine	WCC	17.5	185	215	228	238	252	264	273	281	295
251.5	Northern Colorado	BSky	19.1	174	211	225	239	253	266	275	283	295
251.6	James Madison	CAA	13.9	195	222	233	242	253	261	269	276	289
252.5	Jacksonville St.	OVC	18.3	197	215	228	240	253	266	276	285	299
253.5	Presbyterian	BSth	18.5	190	217	229	240	255	267	277	287	303
254.7	Samford	SC	17.7	190	218	230	243	256	268	277	284	296
255.0	IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	22.3	165	210	225	239	258	272	282	294	305
255.4	Stetson	ASun	19.4	177	212	229	244	257	270	279	286	296
256.3	NC Greensboro	SC	19.3	175	214	230	244	258	271	281	287	295
257.6	UC Riverside	BW	17.7	187	220	234	246	260	271	279	287	301
259.8	Idaho St.	BSky	19.5	184	217	233	247	262	274	284	291	304
259.9	Western Carolina	SC	17.5	193	221	237	248	261	273	281	289	303
260.2	UC Irvine	BW	18.3	192	219	235	249	262	274	283	290	304
260.5	Bethune Cookman	MEAC	21.3	186	214	231	247	263	276	286	296	319
261.2	Maine	AE	19.3	188	219	234	249	264	275	285	293	313
261.8	Montana St.	BSky	16.4	192	224	239	252	264	274	281	288	301
264.1	Virginia Military Inst	BSth	22.1	175	214	232	251	268	280	291	299	312
264.2	Morgan St.	MEAC	18.8	205	226	238	251	266	278	288	297	323
265.6	Pacific	BW	17.1	194	229	243	254	268	278	286	294	313
Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
266.3	North Carolina A&T	MEAC	19.3	187	223	239	254	269	280	289	298	311
266.8	North Dakota	GWC	24.7	186	216	231	251	270	285	296	309	330
269.0	Winthrop	BSth	15.4	203	233	247	260	271	281	287	293	302
270.8	Gardner Webb	BSth	16.4	206	234	248	261	273	282	290	298	314
271.4	Central Michigan	MAC	17.2	193	232	248	261	274	284	291	298	317
271.9	Santa Clara	WCC	13.2	201	239	254	264	275	282	287	290	298
272.4	Utah	P12	9.4	214	248	259	268	275	279	282	284	291
274.9	Troy	SB	16.3	209	236	253	265	277	287	294	299	311
275.8	Monmouth	NEC	12.7	222	246	259	268	277	285	291	296	304
276.6	Marist	MAAC	15.9	209	238	255	268	279	288	295	300	309
277.2	Toledo	MAC	14.9	212	243	257	268	279	288	295	301	316
279.9	Delaware St.	MEAC	18.7	202	236	254	270	283	293	301	310	329
280.2	South Dakota	Sum	14.7	207	245	261	272	283	291	297	303	316
280.4	St. Peter's	MAAC	11.1	223	255	266	274	282	288	293	298	311
281.3	San Jose St.	WAC	14.2	207	247	262	273	284	292	297	302	314
281.7	Prairie View A&M	SWAC	15.9	217	245	260	273	284	293	300	309	327
283.4	High Point	BSth	12.8	218	252	266	277	285	293	298	303	315
285.8	Jacksonville	ASun	11.7	222	258	270	280	288	294	299	304	314
285.8	Chattanooga	SC	14.8	229	251	266	276	287	296	303	311	332
286.0	Sam Houston St.	Slnd	15.8	210	249	265	277	288	297	304	312	325
288.1	Seattle	ind	15.2	218	254	268	279	290	298	306	316	332
290.5	Illinois Chicago	Horz	16.3	210	252	269	282	293	301	310	318	329
291.1	Mount St. Mary's	NEC	9.6	242	270	279	285	292	298	303	308	318
293.1	Army	Pat	12.6	229	264	277	286	294	301	309	315	327
293.4	Eastern Illinois	OVC	12.6	236	265	277	286	295	302	309	316	326
294.1	Southern	SWAC	15.7	223	260	273	284	295	305	314	322	337
294.9	NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	16.3	221	258	274	286	296	306	315	323	336
296.0	Colgate	Pat	10.3	240	272	282	290	297	303	309	313	320
299.5	Central Arkansas	Slnd	15.0	225	266	281	291	300	310	318	326	337
301.5	Alabama St.	SWAC	13.5	244	273	284	293	302	311	319	327	339
Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
303.9	St. Francis PA	NEC	9.0	255	285	292	298	305	310	315	319	327
304.4	SIU Edwardsville	OVC	13.1	239	277	287	296	305	313	322	328	339
304.7	William & Mary	CAA	7.6	255	288	295	300	305	310	314	317	324
304.8	Towson	CAA	7.0	256	289	295	300	306	310	313	316	322
305.2	Sacramento St.	BSky	11.2	259	282	291	298	305	313	320	326	335
305.2	Brown	Ivy	8.8	259	286	294	300	306	312	316	319	325
307.2	Hampton	MEAC	12.9	249	281	291	299	307	316	324	331	338
308.4	Jackson St.	SWAC	13.8	245	280	291	300	309	318	326	333	342
309.3	Texas Pan American	GWC	12.4	252	283	293	301	310	318	325	331	340
309.6	Cal St. Northridge	BW	11.4	251	285	295	302	310	318	324	329	336
309.6	Liberty	BSth	9.5	257	290	297	303	310	317	321	326	333
310.1	Loyola Chicago	Horz	10.3	255	288	296	303	311	318	323	327	335
311.5	Longwood	ind	11.5	253	288	297	304	312	320	327	331	338
313.9	Howard	MEAC	10.8	258	292	299	307	315	322	327	331	337
314.2	Houston Baptist	GWC	12.3	250	288	298	306	315	323	329	334	341
314.5	Nicholls St.	Slnd	9.2	266	295	302	309	316	321	326	329	339
314.7	Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	10.5	266	293	301	308	316	323	328	332	338
315.8	New Hampshire	AE	10.8	267	294	301	309	317	324	330	334	342
316.7	Texas St.	Slnd	12.8	249	289	299	308	318	327	333	337	342
317.6	Kennesaw St.	ASun	7.8	276	300	307	313	319	323	327	330	336
318.8	Navy	Pat	8.6	279	300	306	313	320	325	329	332	337
319.1	Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	11.0	263	295	304	312	321	328	332	335	341
320.3	Dartmouth	Ivy	9.4	265	299	307	315	322	328	331	334	339
321.8	Tennessee Martin	OVC	9.9	280	300	308	315	323	329	334	337	341
322.0	Canisius	MAAC	7.9	289	304	311	317	323	328	331	334	340
323.3	Louisiana Monroe	SB	5.9	292	308	315	320	325	328	330	332	337
323.4	Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	8.0	292	305	312	318	325	330	333	335	339
326.2	Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	10.9	271	301	311	319	328	335	338	341	344
327.1	Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	10.0	286	303	313	321	329	335	339	341	344
328.5	Hartford	AE	7.4	295	311	318	324	330	334	337	339	342
Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
328.5	Northern Arizona	BSky	6.6	291	312	319	325	330	333	336	338	341
329.2	Florida A&M	MEAC	8.2	284	310	317	325	331	335	338	340	343
331.4	The Citadel	SC	6.1	295	315	323	329	333	336	337	339	343
332.6	Alabama A&M	SWAC	8.9	286	310	321	328	335	339	341	343	344
332.6	MD Baltimore County	AE	6.2	296	317	324	329	334	337	339	341	343
333.4	Alcorn St.	SWAC	8.4	289	312	321	330	336	340	342	343	344
334.0	Bryant	NEC	5.3	301	320	327	332	335	338	339	341	343
335.2	Radford	BSth	5.0	299	322	329	333	336	339	340	341	344
335.8	Chicago St.	GWC	6.4	293	318	327	333	338	340	342	343	344
337.4	Northern Illinois	MAC	4.5	300	325	332	336	339	341	341	342	344
337.8	South Carolina St.	MEAC	4.7	302	325	332	336	339	341	342	343	344
341.3	Grambling	SWAC	2.6	321	334	338	341	342	343	343	344	344
342.2	UC Davis	BW	1.9	327	337	340	342	343	343	344	344	344
343.4	Binghamton	AE	1.1	330	340	342	343	344	344	344	344	344