live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog

Below are summary statistics for end-of-season RPI Ranks using 10,000 simulations of all future games.

Using the probability of winning for each team and each future game, 10,000 simulated seasons are run, the resulting RPIs are sorted and ranks are assigned. Expected Rank is the mean from these simulations. All 10,000 Ranks are presented for each team in histograms found by clicking on the team name. You can think of the min and max as the best and worst case scenarios for the team.
How does the RPI Forecast work?

Some numbers (e.g., 1-50 W-L, 51-100 W-L, etc.) are rounded and may not sum up to totals.

EXPECTED RPI RANK is the best estimate for an individual team of its end-of-season RPI Rank. Because they are expectations, they do not have to be 1, 2, 3, etc.
OVERALL is the one most likely overall outcome for all Division 1 teams if I am forced to rank teams 1, 2, 3, etc. It corresponds to the RPI Forecast number column and may not be the same as ranking the Expected RPI Rank column.

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Through games of Jan 19, 2017.


Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
3.3VillanovaBE3.011112481222
5.2KentuckySEC3.7111247101431
5.4BaylorB124.5111248121737
6.0LouisvilleACC4.2112358121631
6.5GonzagaWCC2.8123568101322
6.8KansasB124.71123610141833
7.1North CarolinaACC4.81123610141830
8.5ButlerBE5.21124812162151
11.1ArizonaP124.913571114182236
11.3FloridaSEC5.312571115182344
12.4OregonP125.514681216202444
13.0VirginiaACC5.813691317212542
13.2Florida St.ACC6.213591317212749
13.4CreightonBE5.514791317212546
15.0CincinnatiAmer5.4269111518222749
15.6DukeACC6.8147111520243153
15.8UCLAP125.2379121519222746
19.3WisconsinB106.74912151823283571
20.2Saint Mary'sWCC4.771214172023263146
20.7West VirginiaB126.541013162024293661
22.5PurdueB106.9612151822263139101
22.7Notre DameACC7.521014182227324079
23.0XavierBE8.31913172227334281
25.0South CarolinaSEC8.5412161924293646101
25.9MinnesotaB109.421115202531384889
28.3UNC WilmingtonCAA6.7141921242732374568
29.1SMUAmer8.791620232833405196
30.7DaytonA108.51319222529354252101
32.5MarylandB1010.581721253138475998
33.8Illinois St.MVC8.9172225283238465698
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
34.9NevadaMWC11.01420242733405063117
39.1Middle TennesseeCUSA9.7192629323744526399
39.2Rhode IslandA1014.21320252936465875127
39.5TCUB1215.3718232936486077131
41.3USCP1211.5132428333948576998
42.4Wake ForestACC13.81223273240506176122
42.7NorthwesternB1014.71022273240516378113
43.4VCUA1013.91724283341516277130
43.9IndianaB1015.51123273341526583146
43.9ArkansasSEC15.31523283341526581167
45.1Iowa St.B1216.21323273342546784140
47.4Michigan St.B1016.21024293544566985128
47.4GeorgiaSEC16.3924293545577086128
47.9ClemsonACC16.21425303645577087138
49.9Wichita St.MVC11.22735384248566577123
50.1VermontAE12.02733374148566679130
51.3AkronMAC18.61826323847617798161
56.3PittsburghACC16.91629364454678095130
56.3UT ArlingtonSB18.423313643536782100164
57.1CaliforniaP1218.321303644546882101147
57.2HoustonAmer16.12233394555667995168
59.2MonmouthMAAC16.52735414757698299148
60.1Miami FLACC19.718303745587287105155
61.5New Mexico St.WAC17.230374249587185103162
61.7Kansas St.B1220.817293746597591109146
62.0ValparaisoHorz17.129384350597185104149
62.1UtahP1219.323334048597489108176
62.4MarquetteBE21.119303847597592111156
62.6Seton HallBE20.919303847607691109150
64.6Ohio St.B1021.518313949627894113151
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
65.5La SalleA1022.421323948627996118168
66.2ChattanoogaSC18.925384452637792110152
67.4BYUWCC17.326394755667790107157
67.4Texas TechB1224.2173038496483101121166
67.8MichiganB1023.017314051658299120178
68.5Oklahoma St.B1222.3193342526683100118169
68.9Virginia TechACC21.819344252668299117154
72.3UCFAmer22.0213646567087102121164
72.9San Diego St.MWC22.5273947566986104124191
77.0IllinoisB1024.1163647597593110127181
77.3College of CharlestonCAA19.7344553637589104121162
77.3Boise St.MWC24.7273848597493112132187
78.6ProvidenceBE22.2224050627894109123158
79.3Arkansas St.SB24.0284250617694112134184
80.8TennesseeSEC22.8234152647996112128177
83.3Eastern MichiganMAC27.82539506280101121143213
83.6MemphisAmer22.8284556678198115133177
83.8BelmontOVC21.8385058678197114134180
84.0MississippiSEC24.72441536682101118135182
85.2East Tennessee St.SC20.4425361708398113130176
85.3New MexicoMWC24.32944556783101119138171
85.9StanfordP1222.82745576985102117132163
86.2GeorgetownBE21.72947587085101115130173
86.5AlabamaSEC25.02544556885103121139192
87.1PrincetonIvy22.53551607084101118137205
88.0UNC AshevilleBSth19.44757647386101114131181
89.1WinthropBSth20.14457657487102116134186
89.7Penn St.B1022.02950627489105119135171
91.2MarshallCUSA26.62947587189109128149210
91.4North Carolina St.ACC24.42246607491109124139168
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
92.1NebraskaB1023.82547617592109123139168
92.4VanderbiltSEC24.22548617592109124141180
92.4NortheasternCAA24.73149617491109125143198
92.8St. BonaventureA1023.33352637691108124141185
94.8BucknellPat19.34662718193107121137174
98.9Florida Gulf CoastASun21.94863728397113129147203
99.0OhioMAC28.63551637896118138160213
99.1IonaMAAC24.64057688197116132151205
99.2TempleAmer23.23558708298115130147201
100.5Georgia SouthernSB26.93154668199119137157213
100.5LehighPat23.35062728398115133152218
101.4MassachusettsA1027.432536681100120138157208
102.8San FranciscoWCC23.341617386101118134152198
103.2SyracuseACC27.130546884103122139159202
104.1AuburnSEC25.531567186104122137155207
107.9North Dakota St.Sum26.341617489106125143163216
108.0Texas A&MSEC27.435587389107126144164210
109.5DavidsonA1027.233597490109128145164213
109.9Louisiana LafayetteSB27.542617590109128146168216
110.7Texas SouthernSWAC17.768838998109122135150203
112.0OaklandHorz22.454738496111127141160214
112.0YaleIvy29.744617591110131152177239
112.0CanisiusMAAC23.850698295111127143161211
113.4TulsaAmer25.136678196113130146164206
114.6RichmondA1025.939668097115132149165209
119.1OklahomaB1226.1376785101119138153169197
119.6Mississippi St.SEC26.4386985101120138154171210
120.4Cal St. BakersfieldWAC28.751708499119139159182239
120.5Saint Joseph'sA1026.4427086102120138154173212
120.7Fort WayneSum27.4567486100119139157179246
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
121.7Fresno St.MWC29.5356784101122142161181227
124.7Georgia TechACC24.0397593109126142155168199
125.5ColoradoP1225.7517692107125143159177216
126.9IowaB1026.9387492108127145162179218
127.2UABCUSA24.7588196110127144160178231
127.2Arizona St.P1223.6498197111127143158174213
127.4TowsonCAA25.0548196110127144160178225
127.9WyomingMWC30.6396988107127148167190238
129.9Louisiana TechCUSA22.67290101114128144159178231
130.9FurmanSC24.46487100113130147163181232
131.0Georgia St.SB30.5457491109130151170194235
133.1ToledoMAC31.4437493111132153173197245
133.3UNC GreensboroSC25.15486101116133150166184228
134.3Tennessee St.OVC25.46488102116133151167187231
137.6UC IrvineBW23.57697108121136152169188231
137.7Old DominionCUSA24.56793107120136154170188237
138.5SamfordSC23.55392109123138155169185225
139.0WashingtonP1226.24887105121139157173190225
139.3George MasonA1025.74689106122139157172190223
139.5AlbanyAE23.27297111123138154170189239
139.7HarvardIvy30.05584102119139160179202257
139.8Loyola ChicagoMVC27.55389105121139159176196253
144.3ConnecticutAmer25.86094111127144162178196231
145.3TexasB1226.84091110127146164180195228
145.9William & MaryCAA34.34480102123147171191215257
146.7Colorado St.MWC30.05188107126146167185207248
147.4Green BayHorz29.45792111127147167186208257
147.9New HampshireAE25.574101116130147164181201241
148.9Saint Peter'sMAAC26.273100116130148166183203252
150.0Nebraska OmahaSum26.564100116132149168185203253
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
150.2RiceCUSA24.782106119133149166183202244
151.4George WashingtonA1027.26198116133151170187205235
151.6Northern KentuckyHorz28.46197115132151170188207263
151.8LSUSEC24.743100119136153169183195216
152.6St. John'sBE22.064107123138153168181193217
154.3Sam Houston St.Slnd29.169101118134153174193215262
157.2Wright St.Horz28.363102120138157177194212249
157.9Grand CanyonWAC28.278106122138157177195217261
158.1Weber St.BSky28.685108122138156177197219283
161.4Utah St.MWC29.860104123141162182201219260
161.7Missouri St.MVC26.281112128143161179196213261
161.8ElonCAA26.669111128143161179197215257
162.0BuffaloMAC29.370106125142161181201221265
162.5Jacksonville St.OVC26.182112129145162181197214259
162.6Southern IllinoisMVC25.973111129146163181196212238
166.0SienaMAAC29.372109128146166186205224267
169.0UMBCAE28.274116133149168188206225264
169.1Santa ClaraWCC23.488125139153168185200216252
172.1RutgersB1025.967117138155173191205218242
172.8Stony BrookAE25.089125141155172190206222256
173.6Loyola MarymountWCC24.678126142157174191206221254
174.5South DakotaSum26.593125140155174193210228262
174.5San DiegoWCC22.994129145159174191205218245
175.9Holy CrossPat26.292126142158175194210228260
177.1Boston UniversityPat29.275123140157177198216234275
178.5Tennessee MartinOVC27.293128143159178197214233290
179.4Mount St. Mary'sNEC25.9107132147161178197214231272
181.8Coastal CarolinaSB31.564119141160182204222241271
182.5Eastern WashingtonBSky29.894126144162182203221242289
183.4Northern IllinoisMAC31.863121142161184206224243276
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
183.6MontanaBSky24.0115140153166183199216234298
187.4FairfieldMAAC27.1102136152168187206222239284
188.3Central MichiganMAC31.777127147166189211230247289
189.2Utah ValleyWAC30.882129150168189210228248299
189.2DenverSum27.0106138155170190208225243278
190.4Washington St.P1219.5105148164178192205214222236
190.7RiderMAAC25.796139157173192209223238275
192.0Murray St.OVC28.0109139156172191211228246288
192.4MercerSC24.5106145160175192209225239281
193.0North Carolina CentralMEAC18.8150163171179191205219235285
193.3Northern IowaMVC28.896137155173194214230248291
194.6LibertyBSth25.0114147162177194212227243277
195.1Loyola MDPat28.298138158176196215231248289
196.1Boston CollegeACC20.294151169183198211221229243
196.9TroySB30.890137156175198220237255297
197.1LipscombASun26.4122148163178197216232250305
197.4EvansvilleMVC28.295141160177198217233250278
197.5PennIvy29.799139159177198219235255317
198.2New OrleansSlnd31.896138157175198220239260316
198.9Stephen F. AustinSlnd31.9105139157176198221241262315
201.1HofstraCAA24.9114151168184202219233248282
201.4Ball St.MAC28.7101144163182202222238254294
201.4IUPUISum30.2103141161181203223240259301
201.8RadfordBSth27.4108147166183202221236252287
202.4UNLVMWC25.799149168185203221234249278
202.8PortlandWCC23.897154171187205220233245266
203.7San Jose St.MWC26.590148169186206223236250273
207.4Gardner WebbBSth25.0128157175190208225239255294
208.9Little RockSB28.9109150170189210229245262301
209.5Morehead St.OVC30.8109149168189210231249268319
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
210.0Western MichiganMAC32.863143166187211233251271310
210.9PacificWCC25.4114158177194212229243257280
210.9Illinois ChicagoHorz27.2112156175192212230245261298
211.6Houston BaptistSlnd35.399144166187213236256280325
212.5North DakotaBSky30.3124155173191213233251273320
213.3USC UpstateASun26.5116160178196214232247263303
213.6WoffordSC28.5100157176195215233250268306
214.1UMKCWAC25.3115161180198216232246261292
214.5Indiana St.MVC25.8112161180198216233247261293
215.3UC DavisBW28.5120159177195216234251270316
218.0Portland St.BSky29.8116161179197218238255277323
218.2DuquesneA1023.8122168186203220235248260286
218.9Western KentuckyCUSA26.0116165184202220237251267302
219.0Southeastern LouisianaSlnd31.1120158177198220240258279324
220.0Kent St.MAC28.7112162182201222240256274317
220.6NavyPat26.9129167186202221239254271312
221.0Cleveland St.Horz28.3114163183202222240256275308
221.9LIU BrooklynNEC23.9138175191206222238253268306
223.5Air ForceMWC28.295164186205225243259275307
225.0South AlabamaSB28.594166187207226244261278306
226.1DePaulBE17.2118187203216228239246253266
227.8ColumbiaIvy28.6125168190209229247264282313
228.2Fairleigh DickinsonNEC29.8128169190209229248267288322
228.7Long Beach St.BW30.6127169189209230249268289324
230.2Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd33.7113164186208231253274297331
231.7CharlotteCUSA28.5117174195214233251268287325
233.8FordhamA1024.0118182202219236250264277301
235.6QuinnipiacMAAC25.5132182202219236253268283314
236.4East CarolinaAmer24.5122185204220237253267282309
236.8Oral RobertsSum29.2124177199218238257273291319
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
238.1NJITASun28.3135181201219239257275294325
238.3ManhattanMAAC25.3124185206223240256270286317
240.6Nicholls St.Slnd32.2121171198221242263282299325
241.5Texas St.SB29.1127180203223242261278295324
241.8ArmyPat26.2145189208225242260275292320
243.8BradleyMVC21.4144198216230245259271283306
249.5DrexelCAA23.0158200220235250265279292318
251.9UMass LowellAE23.9159203221236253268283297321
252.5James MadisonCAA23.2160205222237253269283297316
253.4High PointBSth25.0167205222236253271286302331
253.9PepperdineWCC20.1165211228241255268279289305
255.1MissouriSEC21.2154210227241256270282292309
255.9Bowling GreenMAC26.7141201221238257275291305327
257.0South Dakota St.Sum26.0139204223240258276290305325
258.9Appalachian St.SB30.2107194219240260281298313330
259.4LamarSlnd30.2151198220238260281299314337
259.6WagnerNEC25.7179211227241258277294311334
260.3McNeese St.Slnd29.8145198221241261282299314333
262.3Cal St. NorthridgeBW27.7160207227243262282299314337
262.5MaristMAAC21.9171217234248264278290301318
263.1Eastern KentuckyOVC24.7167212231246264281295308327
263.2North FloridaASun25.7164212231246263282297310336
265.9SouthernSWAC25.3186219234248265284300317342
267.3Robert MorrisNEC23.6181220237251267284299312331
267.6DelawareCAA23.6153219236252269285298308327
268.1BrownIvy26.6144212233251269288302314331
269.5Eastern IllinoisOVC24.7179221238252269287302316335
269.9JacksonvilleASun23.3180224240254270286301314333
270.0DetroitHorz25.2168219237253271289303314331
271.1Northern ColoradoBSky27.4172216235252272292307320340
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
271.7IdahoBSky27.8160217235252272293308323341
271.9CampbellBSth23.7180224241256273289302315334
273.2Western CarolinaSC19.7186231247260275288298306319
274.7Saint LouisA1017.1188238252263276287296303326
274.9MilwaukeeHorz22.9170228245260276292304315332
275.6Louisiana MonroeSB26.7163219240258277296309320334
275.7Youngstown St.Horz22.0183228246261277292303312327
275.7St. Francis PANEC25.4186226243258277295309321341
276.6SeattleWAC26.7168222241258278297311322335
277.5TulaneAmer17.0180241255267279290298306321
279.5Tennessee TechOVC23.2182231249264281297309319334
281.2Central ArkansasSlnd24.1179231249265283300312322339
281.5UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC23.1193233250266283299310321336
282.0Miami OHMAC26.1157226246265285302314324336
282.1Oregon St.P1214.7208248262273284293299305314
283.2BinghamtonAE24.4187233250267285302314324339
283.3Montana St.BSky24.4196234250266284302315325342
284.3South FloridaAmer20.0174241257271287300308316329
284.4Chicago St.WAC20.9174238255271287300309317326
286.0Austin PeayOVC22.5189239256270288303314323336
288.7UTSACUSA27.1144230252271292310322331343
288.8CornellIvy24.3176236255273292307318327339
289.8DrakeMVC21.8190243259275292307316324334
291.1UC Santa BarbaraBW26.5185234255273294312323333343
291.3Jackson St.SWAC23.5209243259274292309321332346
292.0BryantNEC23.7202242259276294310321331343
292.4The CitadelSC18.6199251266280295307314321334
293.2AmericanPat22.4192244262278296310321329339
293.6Prairie View A&MSWAC24.6205242259276295313325334346
294.1Charleston SouthernBSth23.1179244261279297312322331342
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
294.3ColgatePat19.3203253267282297309318325337
295.7Abilene ChristianSlnd26.3189236259278300316327335345
297.1HawaiiBW24.0204245263281300315326335344
298.3Incarnate WordSlnd28.2161235258280303320331338347
300.0Kennesaw St.ASun22.6209249268286303317327334344
300.6Northwestern St.Slnd27.0179240261283305322332340349
300.6UC RiversideBW25.5189243265285305320330337345
300.8NiagaraMAAC19.8197256273289304315324331341
301.4Sacred HeartNEC17.9220261277290304315323329341
302.4South Carolina St.MEAC25.7200245266287307322332339347
303.0Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC23.0208253270288306321331338348
305.0Western IllinoisSum21.4208252274293309321329334342
306.4Southeast Missouri St.OVC21.3200258276294310323331338346
307.1Alcorn St.SWAC23.3214255274292311325334341349
307.6HamptonMEAC22.2225259276293311325334341350
307.9Florida AtlanticCUSA19.5231261281297311322331337345
308.8DartmouthIvy19.0209263283298313323330335343
311.3Norfolk St.MEAC21.3228262280298314328336342349
313.6Idaho St.BSky19.8209265286303318328335340347
314.8North TexasCUSA17.8226270290306319328334339345
314.9MaineAE14.2244278296308318325330335341
317.7Cal PolyBW19.3217268290308322332338342347
318.0HartfordAE14.5241282298310321329334338344
318.0LafayettePat11.9238288302312321327331334340
319.0SIU EdwardsvilleOVC14.4233284299312322330335339344
319.1Morgan St.MEAC17.6229277294309323333339343350
319.7Cal St. FullertonBW17.9232275295311324333339342348
321.7Delaware St.MEAC16.4239281299313325334340343349
322.1StetsonASun15.9218282301314326334339342347
324.2LongwoodBSth14.1224287305317328335339342346
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
324.3UTEPCUSA13.9246289305317328334339342347
324.7HowardMEAC16.1233284302317329337341345351
325.6VMISC12.1246294310320328334338340345
325.8Savannah St.MEAC15.7233284304318330337342345350
326.1Mississippi Valley St.SWAC14.7240289306319330337341345350
327.5FIUCUSA12.3252296311321330336340343349
327.8Coppin St.MEAC13.7246292310321331338341344349
331.4Southern MissCUSA10.7252304317327334339342344348
333.5Sacramento St.BSky10.3260307320329336341343346349
337.9Southern UtahBSky7.7274318328335340343345347350
338.2Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC9.5251313326335341345347349351
338.3Alabama St.SWAC8.5270316327335341344346348351
341.0St. Francis NYNEC6.0278325334339342345347348351
341.2Northern ArizonaBSky5.2296328335339342345346348351
343.3Grambling St.SWAC5.8282328337341345347349350351
343.9PresbyterianBSth3.8313334339343345346347348350
346.2Bethune CookmanMEAC4.0312336341345347349350351351
347.0Central ConnecticutNEC2.8320340343346348349350350351
348.2Florida A&MMEAC2.6322341345347349350351351351
348.7North Carolina A&TMEAC2.3326343346348349350351351351
350.3Alabama A&MSWAC1.2336347349350351351351351351