live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog

Below are summary statistics for end-of-season RPI Ranks using 10,000 simulations of all future games.

Using the probability of winning for each team and each future game, 10,000 simulated seasons are run, the resulting RPIs are sorted and ranks are assigned. Expected Rank is the mean from these simulations. All 10,000 Ranks are presented for each team in histograms found by clicking on the team name. You can think of the min and max as the best and worst case scenarios for the team.
How does the RPI Forecast work?

Some numbers (e.g., 1-50 W-L, 51-100 W-L, etc.) are rounded and may not sum up to totals.

EXPECTED RPI RANK is the best estimate for an individual team of its end-of-season RPI Rank. Because they are expectations, they do not have to be 1, 2, 3, etc.
OVERALL is the one most likely overall outcome for all Division 1 teams if I am forced to rank teams 1, 2, 3, etc. It corresponds to the RPI Forecast number column and may not be the same as ranking the Expected RPI Rank column.

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Through games of Feb 24, 2017.


Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
2.6KansasB122.01111235812
3.1VillanovaBE2.31111247912
4.7North CarolinaACC3.111124791114
4.9FloridaSEC2.511235681013
5.0GonzagaWCC1.51334567913
5.6LouisvilleACC3.1112358101216
6.1ArizonaP122.9122369101113
8.2BaylorB123.11246911121315
8.3OregonP121.6356789101214
9.4KentuckySEC2.62567912131421
10.7ButlerBE2.047891112131518
12.1DukeACC2.7479101214151823
12.6CincinnatiAmer2.36910111214151825
13.7Florida St.ACC3.05910121315182227
16.1Saint Mary'sWCC1.8111414151617182127
17.2PurdueB103.3111314151719222531
17.6SMUAmer3.2111414151719222639
17.6UCLAP122.4121415161719202434
20.5MinnesotaB104.1111416182023263138
21.1VirginiaACC3.6131617182123262939
22.1VCUA103.7131618202224273138
22.2DaytonA103.8141718192125273137
24.4WisconsinB104.6161820212327313548
25.4West VirginiaB124.4162021222527323647
25.4XavierBE5.5151719212529333946
25.7CreightonBE3.7162022232528303645
26.4MarylandB105.0161921222629333949
27.7Notre DameACC4.0192123262729343850
28.4Oklahoma St.B125.3162022252831354146
30.8South CarolinaSEC5.9202324263033404455
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
31.8Illinois St.MVC3.4232728293134373945
35.5UNC WilmingtonCAA4.2273032333436434651
35.9ArkansasSEC6.6212628303640464954
36.0USCP126.1252829313540455062
36.3Middle TennesseeCUSA4.2263032333539424762
36.8UT ArlingtonSB6.6252830313640465272
37.9Miami FLACC7.2212529323843485155
38.7Iowa St.B127.2212630334043505358
38.7Wichita St.MVC2.8313435373840424552
38.9NevadaMWC6.3263032343843485262
40.2MonmouthMAAC3.4323436374043454651
42.2Wake ForestACC6.5252932384248505256
43.6Michigan St.B107.9232834374548555863
44.8VermontAE3.7364041434446515561
45.6Virginia TechACC9.2263032404553576574
46.5Rhode IslandA107.5303537404651566474
48.1VanderbiltSEC5.6283740454951565964
48.2CaliforniaP126.1313740444853575965
48.5NorthwesternB107.8263239434953596267
48.5MichiganB108.1293437434754596571
50.6GeorgiaSEC6.7353942455154606478
51.3HoustonAmer5.8354044485156586275
52.0Seton HallBE7.8323843475157617078
53.4PrincetonIvy6.9414547485158627192
53.5AkronMAC6.2404446495357616782
57.1BelmontOVC6.0485152535557687176
58.9ValparaisoHorz4.1495254565862656773
62.3ProvidenceBE9.4444850576170748697
62.4TCUB129.5384552556367778287
62.9East Tennessee St.SC4.9515658596167707385
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
63.0MarquetteBE10.0414651566368798491
63.6Boise St.MWC10.14751535563687985104
64.3TennesseeSEC8.9455053596271748695
64.9PittsburghACC7.8385054606372757886
65.1IllinoisB1010.0434852586471818794
66.5Kansas St.B129.6465154606473818796
67.7UNC AshevilleBSth6.8576062636568808489
69.0College of CharlestonCAA5.2586264666870788490
69.4New Mexico St.WAC8.15561636467708489114
69.4ClemsonACC9.25055586170738388107
72.9Cal St. BakersfieldWAC9.45862646669838891112
74.4MississippiSEC10.44956616773828698109
75.1Arkansas St.SB13.549565865738496104124
76.5SyracuseACC8.65461657375789196104
76.5GeorgetownBE10.55057646877829397104
77.0Ohio St.B1010.55460637176869396106
77.2StanfordP1211.14457617075889194104
78.3BYUWCC3.7606874767981838590
79.0BucknellPat6.36472747577809196104
79.0Colorado St.MWC11.453606471768792105113
80.1WinthropBSth3.66974767880828489101
84.1UtahP1211.461697173869298109118
84.3New MexicoMWC10.7616669788395100103110
84.6AlabamaSEC11.6576371758691103107115
84.9Florida Gulf CoastASun3.4717881838587899299
86.6NebraskaB1011.5556372778795103106112
87.1Penn St.B1011.4566472788795103106111
88.4AuburnSEC11.2606775808997102110117
89.9TowsonCAA7.471778083929699101106
91.5San FranciscoWCC6.5758385879094103106113
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
91.6IndianaB1013.55866768195100112117128
91.6UCFAmer9.4687477879497102110117
94.1St. BonaventureA1010.87176808694100109115130
94.2Georgia TechACC12.05571758893106109112120
94.7North Dakota St.Sum8.07782848796102105107114
95.3Fresno St.MWC10.77277808597100110119127
96.6ConnecticutAmer12.36271838699103114119128
97.5San Diego St.MWC12.06876809197108112124135
97.5ChattanoogaSC8.98286899194105110117133
98.5RichmondA1010.67481848999105113118135
99.5FurmanSC7.48590929497107111114122
99.8Texas A&MSEC12.56675869199108115126134
102.1OhioMAC11.878858891103108122126150
102.9Texas TechB1213.567758893106111123129139
107.4IonaMAAC7.9899597100109114117120129
107.4OaklandHorz5.696100102104106109117121127
108.0La SalleA1012.7828791101107119124137151
108.6George MasonA109.6808998102109115120129138
109.3IowaB1012.2708792104109116126130137
109.6MemphisAmer11.0768697101112118122132145
110.4Louisiana TechCUSA8.19199101104108117121125151
112.0Northern KentuckyHorz8.99297100103116120122124130
113.1UNC GreensboroSC9.39197100103116119122133142
113.6DavidsonA109.98695100108112123127131139
115.3North Carolina St.ACC8.98093103107119122124126131
115.5LehighPat7.3102107109111113117130134143
116.9HarvardIvy11.88796102109114126130148160
118.3Georgia SouthernSB12.37692102108119128135138148
118.7ColoradoP1211.192101104108121124135139149
118.8South DakotaSum7.8101106109112120126128131137
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
120.2Georgia St.SB14.18697102111117129135154165
122.0Wright St.Horz7.5107112114117120129134137144
123.5TempleAmer7.9107113116118121129134140163
124.1TulsaAmer12.291105111115123131137154162
124.3NortheasternCAA5.9105110114123126128130132137
126.3Old DominionCUSA11.7104110113117126131145153176
127.3Texas SouthernSWAC12.0106113116119123133142158196
127.9MarshallCUSA16.1100105108113127133152159185
128.9George WashingtonA1014.294101113119130135152158169
129.3St. John'sBE11.993107114121129137147151160
132.5Eastern WashingtonBSky12.5113119121123127139149166193
134.0William & MaryCAA12.6113119121123127147151155163
139.1Saint Peter'sMAAC9.3119126128131137148151154161
139.3SienaMAAC7.7125131133135137140155161170
139.5Arizona St.P1210.3108119127131140149152156163
139.6Santa ClaraWCC5.1116125135137140143145148156
142.1Louisiana LafayetteSB18.3100110122127142152168182196
142.4WyomingMWC17.6102111122130137155162179186
142.5AlbanyAE6.1129135137139141144147164175
143.0BuffaloMAC14.7109118125133138155160175186
143.0Mississippi St.SEC13.7104116126131145150163171179
144.4Northern IowaMVC11.2119125128132149153156159166
144.9Green BayHorz9.8129134136139142146164170179
145.8Tennessee St.OVC8.3121128132142148152154157165
146.5Grand CanyonWAC14.5117124127139145151172177184
147.8ElonCAA8.5130137140143146150163171180
148.5New HampshireAE11.9130134137139143162167170177
150.8YaleIvy17.1126131133135154161179185207
151.4Loyola MarymountWCC12.5125134137140148163168172184
151.5UC IrvineBW15.6126132134137154161177183205
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
153.1Loyola ChicagoMVC12.5129136139142147166169172180
153.3ToledoMAC17.5121126129144151170176191200
154.0New OrleansSlnd18.6120128131135154165180196208
154.1CanisiusMAAC10.3133139141144157164166169175
155.7LipscombASun3.9140148151153156158161163172
156.1Nebraska OmahaSum12.5129136140145155168172175184
156.7Stony BrookAE7.2129136143155158161163166173
157.5TexasB1216.4107125132148157173177179185
157.6Washington St.P1212.6109128143149157169173176182
158.7Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd18.3124132136141160168187195220
160.0LibertyBSth8.9132139144158162166169172178
161.0SamfordSC11.3131142146150164169173185196
161.9UMBCAE10.2135142147152166170173175183
162.0Coastal CarolinaSB18.1124131135153160178183198208
163.0San Jose St.MWC15.4112130137154161177180182188
163.0North DakotaBSky18.8129137140145165175192199221
165.9Southern IllinoisMVC10.7140149152155171176178180186
167.2OklahomaB1213.7121139149156169177184189196
167.3RiceCUSA16.4126134144156171178190196204
169.6Sam Houston St.Slnd18.2130139144156170179195201220
169.9Saint Joseph'sA1016.0131139147160168181188201209
170.0Mount St. Mary'sNEC5.8154161164167169172175188199
173.0Tennessee MartinOVC12.2148155159162169185188192199
174.0Weber St.BSky17.6134145150157174190196209218
174.5Morehead St.OVC11.4154160163166170187192195202
176.4Eastern MichiganMAC17.4136145150169175191197209216
176.6FairfieldMAAC8.6156163166169174185187190195
176.9RutgersB1012.3136149157170176188191194200
177.7Fort WayneSum8.4159167170172175179193197205
178.8Utah St.MWC13.8152158162166181188200206213
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
182.4TroySB17.4129144159174181197203213222
182.9PennIvy14.6149158162175182197202210220
183.8LSUSEC13.3122152168176189194197199207
185.0UABCUSA13.6148159164179185192204208223
185.0Ball St.MAC14.1146155168175188194205209217
185.3UMKCWAC12.4151160165181186190205208214
186.9MassachusettsA1014.7139152170176190196206210217
187.8Kent St.MAC14.4151159165179188199207212219
188.2Western MichiganMAC17.2143155160179185203207218226
189.7Boston UniversityPat10.0170175177180194199201203211
190.0Loyola MDPat9.1174179181184186201205207213
190.9Holy CrossPat9.9171177179182188201203205210
191.4FordhamA1013.1146160176180194200208211217
192.3Jacksonville St.OVC8.4169176179184195199201204211
192.6North Carolina CentralMEAC7.7174182185188191195205212240
193.2HofstraCAA8.8173180182185192202204206211
194.1DenverSum8.8171179182186197202204207212
194.5Houston BaptistSlnd19.2147157163186192210215229238
194.5WashingtonP1213.1138165175188193207210213219
195.1WoffordSC9.9169176179184200202204206210
196.5EvansvilleMVC8.2178185187190194205208211216
197.7San DiegoWCC6.8178186189192196204207209214
198.5UC DavisBW14.1160170178189196209214225232
200.3RiderMAAC6.5185190192195199206209211215
203.4Central MichiganMAC12.5158174186196205215218221229
203.6Gardner WebbBSth7.3184191194197203210213215220
205.1MercerSC9.2175184190201205213216219223
207.5Stephen F. AustinSlnd14.5176184188193209215227238252
207.9Boston CollegeACC8.6154183197203211214216218223
208.0South Dakota St.Sum8.1187195198201206216218221226
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
208.4NavyPat5.5185193198208210212213215219
211.3Texas St.SB15.2165176192200212223229240248
213.6Missouri St.MVC4.8191200208213215216218220224
214.4Long Beach St.BW10.7186195198209215219230233238
215.6Utah ValleyWAC9.6193202205208214222228238248
218.4Indiana St.MVC7.4199204207211221224226229234
218.7Northern IllinoisMAC10.8185195206211220225234238243
219.3South AlabamaSB12.1172195202211221227237240247
219.9MontanaBSky10.2188201206214218227232241248
222.2Bowling GreenMAC11.6185196208213222231238241245
223.0IUPUISum7.6205211214216222230232235240
223.6LIU BrooklynNEC5.6208213216218225228230232237
223.6Western KentuckyCUSA10.3191200212215226230238243251
223.6USC UpstateASun3.0214218220222224226228230234
224.1RadfordBSth7.4208212214217227231233235240
226.8East CarolinaAmer9.9181206214220227236238240245
227.6DePaulBE7.9189209217222230234236238244
228.2High PointBSth6.9213217219222229234237239246
229.7PacificWCC6.2213219221224231235237240245
229.7PepperdineWCC5.5213217220228231233235238242
229.8WagnerNEC7.3215220222224227237240243248
230.8CharlotteCUSA13.5195204216220233238251254262
231.7IdahoBSky12.6205212215225230242246263272
231.9BradleyMVC8.2215219221224235239241243250
234.2LamarSlnd13.1205215218221234241252265280
234.3PortlandWCC7.4216221224227238240242244249
234.3Alcorn St.SWAC12.2198210218226234246251254260
237.1Murray St.OVC7.6219225227230240244246248255
237.7North FloridaASun3.1225231234236238240242244249
238.4UNLVMWC8.7206219226234239245249252257
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
242.2Little RockSB14.0202216222234241251263269278
243.3Southeastern LouisianaSlnd10.7215225229238242247260264271
243.5Illinois ChicagoHorz6.1226231234239245248250252257
244.0DuquesneA109.4207224230239243252255258264
248.9DelawareCAA5.9226233238248250252254257262
249.4Air ForceMWC12.3208225231242248261264267273
251.0Montana St.BSky13.8215225236241252258272280292
251.1MissouriSEC11.2212228235243252261264267272
251.7Eastern KentuckyOVC7.8235241243245249259263265271
252.2Cleveland St.Horz7.1239243245247250257264267274
253.0UTEPCUSA12.6224231236244250262269281295
253.1ColumbiaIvy14.3215225238241254260275281289
253.6James MadisonCAA7.2236242244247254260263266272
253.8Robert MorrisNEC6.9240244246248252260265267273
254.4QuinnipiacMAAC7.2239243245247257261263265269
255.3ManhattanMAAC2.8244250252253255257259261265
256.6Norfolk St.MEAC12.3233238241245257261277283292
256.7Tennessee TechOVC9.1237242244247260265267269274
256.9Saint LouisA109.1220237244251258265267270276
258.5Eastern IllinoisOVC8.5242247250252255267271276283
260.0ArmyPat6.8238243246259262264266268273
261.2Nicholls St.Slnd14.7214234240253259274279284293
261.4Western CarolinaSC7.2237248253256260268270274286
265.0Fairleigh DickinsonNEC10.3242248251254269273276280286
265.9Portland St.BSky16.3231238245255260278284305312
268.1Youngstown St.Horz9.1243250253259271274277280288
271.1DetroitHorz7.8245252256269273276279282288
271.8SeattleWAC12.1230246255260276281285288297
272.3Cal St. NorthridgeBW16.5235242254259273282300305312
274.1Southeast Missouri St.OVC10.7256264266267270274294298305
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
275.8MaristMAAC7.5248256261274278280283285290
277.0DrexelCAA7.6250257262275279282284287296
277.0CornellIvy16.2231248255266272294297300307
277.5St. Francis PANEC11.2259264266268271290293296302
278.0Appalachian St.SB17.2239247253266278291303308315
279.2Kennesaw St.ASun4.4263270273276279282285288297
280.1BryantNEC8.8264269272274278282297302309
280.4Austin PeayOVC10.1252259262278284287290293300
280.5ColgatePat8.1264270273275278282295300308
281.2BrownIvy14.7240257262267283289303306312
283.5CampbellBSth11.2263269271274278295298301306
283.6Oregon St.P125.2258271277281284287290293301
284.3NiagaraMAAC10.3264269271274287294297299306
284.5UTSACUSA18.4234244260267286301308311319
285.5Florida AtlanticCUSA12.7239260265280285296303306310
286.9HawaiiBW16.5245254267271292299308312318
287.4MilwaukeeHorz8.4264268272285290293295298305
287.6SouthernSWAC17.5241251265269293299311314320
287.7JacksonvilleASun3.8272280283285288290293295301
288.5Central ArkansasSlnd15.0251260265278288303307309315
289.2Abilene ChristianSlnd18.5238248264269294301312315322
289.4South Carolina St.MEAC15.1256263266272293299309312317
290.0TulaneAmer12.4238261272282294300303305312
290.7Oral RobertsSum4.4271282285288291294296299306
290.8NJITASun4.0276283286288291294296298305
292.1HamptonMEAC16.9254262266283291307311321327
293.1BinghamtonAE8.2272282285287290298307309315
293.3Cal St. FullertonBW17.3251258272280301307314320324
295.4Sacred HeartNEC9.7269276280285300303305307312
296.8Prairie View A&MSWAC18.2253260265285304309319324333
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
296.9Northern ColoradoBSky14.2258266272289298308313318323
300.3Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC15.3261270275295302312317325330
300.7Cal PolyBW14.2262269275295302311315322328
301.3DrakeMVC6.6283290293296301307310312316
302.7UMass LowellAE2.9291297299301303305306308313
303.3McNeese St.Slnd13.1243269281299307313315318322
305.2South FloridaAmer6.8267288296302307310311313318
305.4Louisiana MonroeSB15.0245268283298309316322324329
305.4Miami OHMAC11.3249271295302307313316318323
305.7Charleston SouthernBSth8.4285293297299303315318320324
308.2Incarnate WordSlnd13.7258268295300315319321322328
308.4UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC8.1263290299304311314316318323
309.5DartmouthIvy8.9257281300306312315317319323
310.4Sacramento St.BSky11.6264274297302313318324327331
312.5AmericanPat6.1291299303307315317318320324
314.3Jackson St.SWAC10.6287295299307314324327333342
314.7Chicago St.WAC5.2271304307312316318320321324
317.7Morgan St.MEAC8.5281299305313318325327331336
318.0The CitadelSC5.0284305310318319321322323327
318.3Savannah St.MEAC8.1278304309311320324328331335
319.4Western IllinoisSum4.3305309312318321322324325329
320.0VMISC7.8286300312314324327328329332
322.5LafayettePat4.8305310313322324326327328331
323.5HartfordAE3.1307313321323324325326327331
323.8Northwestern St.Slnd7.1292305315319326328332334338
324.4UC RiversideBW5.0306312316322325328330332335
324.9UC Santa BarbaraBW7.5296304317320328331332333337
328.0MaineAE3.8316320322326329331332333336
328.5North TexasCUSA5.6297317321326329332335337341
329.0Coppin St.MEAC5.2306315323326330333334335339
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
329.4Delaware St.MEAC4.2315321323327329333335337340
331.7Grambling St.SWAC7.1307315324327333336341343345
332.4StetsonASun1.5325329331332332333334335338
334.6Northern ArizonaBSky3.8313326329333335337339340342
335.0Idaho St.BSky4.1312325329333336338339341343
336.3Southern MissCUSA4.1316328330333338339340341344
336.4SIU EdwardsvilleOVC2.0328332334335337338339340342
338.2Alabama St.SWAC5.2313326330335340342344345346
338.8Mississippi Valley St.SWAC3.3327332334337339341343344346
339.3HowardMEAC4.3323328334336340343344345347
339.5FIUCUSA3.3320331335338340342343344345
340.5Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC4.1324330335338342344345346347
341.4LongwoodBSth1.8334337339340342343343344345
342.0Southern UtahBSky2.6330335338341343344344345346
344.5Central ConnecticutNEC1.3338341343344345345346346347
345.7PresbyterianBSth0.6341344345346346346346346347
347.9Bethune CookmanMEAC0.9342347347347348349349349350
348.0Florida A&MMEAC0.9345347347347348349349349350
348.0St. Francis NYNEC0.7347347347348348349349349349
350.3North Carolina A&TMEAC0.5350350350350350351351351351
350.7Alabama A&MSWAC0.5349350350350351351351351351