live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog

Below are summary statistics for end-of-season RPI Ranks using 10,000 simulations of all future games.

Using the probability of winning for each team and each future game, 10,000 simulated seasons are run, the resulting RPIs are sorted and ranks are assigned. Expected Rank is the mean from these simulations. All 10,000 Ranks are presented for each team in histograms found by clicking on the team name. You can think of the min and max as the best and worst case scenarios for the team.
How does the RPI Forecast work?

Some numbers (e.g., 1-50 W-L, 51-100 W-L, etc.) are rounded and may not sum up to totals.

EXPECTED RPI RANK is the best estimate for an individual team of its end-of-season RPI Rank. Because they are expectations, they do not have to be 1, 2, 3, etc.
OVERALL is the one most likely overall outcome for all Division 1 teams if I am forced to rank teams 1, 2, 3, etc. It corresponds to the RPI Forecast number column and may not be the same as ranking the Expected RPI Rank column.

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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
1.0VillanovaBE0.0111111111
2.0ArizonaP120.0222222222
3.0KentuckySEC0.0333333333
4.0KansasB120.0444444444
5.0North CarolinaACC0.0555555555
6.0DukeACC0.0666666666
7.0LouisvilleACC0.0777777777
8.0GonzagaWCC0.0888888888
9.0OregonP120.0999999999
10.0FloridaSEC0.0101010101010101010
11.0BaylorB120.0111111111111111111
12.0CincinnatiAmer0.0121212121212121212
13.0SMUAmer0.0131313131313131313
14.0Florida St.ACC0.0141414141414141414
15.0ButlerBE0.0151515151515151515
16.0UCLAP120.0161616161616161616
17.0Saint Mary'sWCC0.0171717171717171717
18.0VirginiaACC0.0181818181818181818
19.0PurdueB100.0191919191919191919
20.0MinnesotaB100.0202020202020202020
21.0Iowa St.B120.0212121212121212121
22.0VCUA100.0222222222222222222
23.0Notre DameACC0.0232323232323232323
24.0West VirginiaB120.0242424242424242424
25.0MichiganB100.0252525252525252525
26.0CreightonBE0.0262626262626262626
27.0UNC WilmingtonCAA0.0272727272727272727
28.0ArkansasSEC0.0282828282828282828
29.0NevadaMWC0.0292929292929292929
30.0DaytonA100.0303030303030303030
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
31.0Rhode IslandA100.0313131313131313131
32.0Wichita St.MVC0.0323232323232323232
33.0Illinois St.MVC0.0333333333333333333
34.0Middle TennesseeCUSA0.0343434343434343434
35.0WisconsinB100.0353535353535353535
36.0MarylandB100.0363636363636363636
37.0XavierBE0.0373737373737373737
38.0Wake ForestACC0.0383838383838383838
39.0Oklahoma St.B120.0393939393939393939
40.0USCP120.0404040404040404040
41.0Miami FLACC0.0414141414141414141
42.0South CarolinaSEC0.0424242424242424242
43.0Seton HallBE0.0434343434343434343
44.0VanderbiltSEC0.0444444444444444444
45.0UT ArlingtonSB0.0454545454545454545
46.0VermontAE0.0464646464646464646
47.0PrincetonIvy0.0474747474747474747
48.0Virginia TechACC0.0484848484848484848
49.0MonmouthMAAC0.0494949494949494949
50.0NorthwesternB100.0505050505050505050
51.0Michigan St.B100.0515151515151515151
52.0GeorgiaSEC0.0525252525252525252
53.0CaliforniaP120.0535353535353535353
54.0HoustonAmer0.0545454545454545454
55.0East Tennessee St.SC0.0555555555555555555
56.0ProvidenceBE0.0565656565656565656
57.0Kansas St.B120.0575757575757575757
58.0AkronMAC0.0585858585858585858
59.0New Mexico St.WAC0.0595959595959595959
60.0MarquetteBE0.0606060606060606060
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
61.0BelmontOVC0.0616161616161616161
62.0IllinoisB100.0626262626262626262
63.0BucknellPat0.0636363636363636363
64.0College of CharlestonCAA0.0646464646464646464
65.0BYUWCC0.0656565656565656565
66.0Colorado St.MWC0.0666666666666666666
67.0TCUB120.0676767676767676767
68.0UCFAmer0.0686868686868686868
69.0ClemsonACC0.0696969696969696969
70.0WinthropBSth0.0707070707070707070
71.0ValparaisoHorz0.0717171717171717171
72.0Boise St.MWC0.0727272727272727272
73.0UNC AshevilleBSth0.0737373737373737373
74.0PittsburghACC0.0747474747474747474
75.0Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.0757575757575757575
76.0Fresno St.MWC0.0767676767676767676
77.0MississippiSEC0.0777777777777777777
78.0AlabamaSEC0.0787878787878787878
79.0IndianaB100.0797979797979797979
80.0RichmondA100.0808080808080808080
81.0IowaB100.0818181818181818181
82.0TennesseeSEC0.0828282828282828282
83.0UtahP120.0838383838383838383
84.0SyracuseACC0.0848484848484848484
85.0Florida Gulf CoastASun0.0858585858585858585
86.0New MexicoMWC0.0868686868686868686
87.0Northern KentuckyHorz0.0878787878787878787
88.0TowsonCAA0.0888888888888888888
89.0IonaMAAC0.0898989898989898989
90.0Ohio St.B100.0909090909090909090
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
91.0St. BonaventureA100.0919191919191919191
92.0Texas A&MSEC0.0929292929292929292
93.0DavidsonA100.0939393939393939393
94.0San FranciscoWCC0.0949494949494949494
95.0UNC GreensboroSC0.0959595959595959595
96.0FurmanSC0.0969696969696969696
97.0LehighPat0.0979797979797979797
98.0San Diego St.MWC0.0989898989898989898
99.0ColoradoP120.0999999999999999999
100.0StanfordP120.0100100100100100100100100100
101.0Penn St.B100.0101101101101101101101101101
102.0George WashingtonA100.0102102102102102102102102102
103.0George MasonA100.0103103103103103103103103103
104.0Georgia St.SB0.0104104104104104104104104104
105.0Georgia TechACC0.0105105105105105105105105105
106.0GeorgetownBE0.0106106106106106106106106106
107.0NebraskaB100.0107107107107107107107107107
108.0Texas SouthernSWAC0.0108108108108108108108108108
109.0OaklandHorz0.0109109109109109109109109109
110.0William & MaryCAA0.0110110110110110110110110110
111.0North Dakota St.Sum0.0111111111111111111111111111
112.0MarshallCUSA0.0112112112112112112112112112
113.0AuburnSEC0.0113113113113113113113113113
114.0Louisiana LafayetteSB0.0114114114114114114114114114
115.0Wright St.Horz0.0115115115115115115115115115
116.0Louisiana TechCUSA0.0116116116116116116116116116
117.0OhioMAC0.0117117117117117117117117117
118.0ConnecticutAmer0.0118118118118118118118118118
119.0Arkansas St.SB0.0119119119119119119119119119
120.0MemphisAmer0.0120120120120120120120120120
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
121.0Georgia SouthernSB0.0121121121121121121121121121
122.0SienaMAAC0.0122122122122122122122122122
123.0South DakotaSum0.0123123123123123123123123123
124.0Texas TechB120.0124124124124124124124124124
125.0Arizona St.P120.0125125125125125125125125125
126.0Santa ClaraWCC0.0126126126126126126126126126
127.0New HampshireAE0.0127127127127127127127127127
128.0YaleIvy0.0128128128128128128128128128
129.0AlbanyAE0.0129129129129129129129129129
130.0Saint Peter'sMAAC0.0130130130130130130130130130
131.0Grand CanyonWAC0.0131131131131131131131131131
132.0Nebraska OmahaSum0.0132132132132132132132132132
133.0La SalleA100.0133133133133133133133133133
134.0TulsaAmer0.0134134134134134134134134134
135.0UC IrvineBW0.0135135135135135135135135135
136.0NortheasternCAA0.0136136136136136136136136136
137.0TempleAmer0.0137137137137137137137137137
138.0Old DominionCUSA0.0138138138138138138138138138
139.0ChattanoogaSC0.0139139139139139139139139139
140.0St. John'sBE0.0140140140140140140140140140
141.0North Carolina St.ACC0.0141141141141141141141141141
142.0Kent St.MAC0.0142142142142142142142142142
143.0HarvardIvy0.0143143143143143143143143143
144.0North DakotaBSky0.0144144144144144144144144144
145.0Southern IllinoisMVC0.0145145145145145145145145145
146.0BuffaloMAC0.0146146146146146146146146146
147.0TroySB0.0147147147147147147147147147
148.0Eastern WashingtonBSky0.0148148148148148148148148148
149.0Jacksonville St.OVC0.0149149149149149149149149149
150.0Mississippi St.SEC0.0150150150150150150150150150
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
151.0Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.0151151151151151151151151151
152.0WyomingMWC0.0152152152152152152152152152
153.0Loyola MarymountWCC0.0153153153153153153153153153
154.0New OrleansSlnd0.0154154154154154154154154154
155.0ToledoMAC0.0155155155155155155155155155
156.0TexasB120.0156156156156156156156156156
157.0Green BayHorz0.0157157157157157157157157157
158.0Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.0158158158158158158158158158
159.0Washington St.P120.0159159159159159159159159159
160.0South Dakota St.Sum0.0160160160160160160160160160
161.0ElonCAA0.0161161161161161161161161161
162.0Tennessee St.OVC0.0162162162162162162162162162
163.0Northern IowaMVC0.0163163163163163163163163163
164.0Tennessee MartinOVC0.0164164164164164164164164164
165.0UMBCAE0.0165165165165165165165165165
166.0UC DavisBW0.0166166166166166166166166166
167.0RiceCUSA0.0167167167167167167167167167
168.0OklahomaB120.0168168168168168168168168168
169.0Ball St.MAC0.0169169169169169169169169169
170.0SamfordSC0.0170170170170170170170170170
171.0CanisiusMAAC0.0171171171171171171171171171
172.0LibertyBSth0.0172172172172172172172172172
173.0Western MichiganMAC0.0173173173173173173173173173
174.0Eastern MichiganMAC0.0174174174174174174174174174
175.0Houston BaptistSlnd0.0175175175175175175175175175
176.0Stony BrookAE0.0176176176176176176176176176
177.0RutgersB100.0177177177177177177177177177
178.0Fort WayneSum0.0178178178178178178178178178
179.0Texas St.SB0.0179179179179179179179179179
180.0FairfieldMAAC0.0180180180180180180180180180
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
181.0Utah St.MWC0.0181181181181181181181181181
182.0Loyola ChicagoMVC0.0182182182182182182182182182
183.0Coastal CarolinaSB0.0183183183183183183183183183
184.0UMKCWAC0.0184184184184184184184184184
185.0Weber St.BSky0.0185185185185185185185185185
186.0Gardner WebbBSth0.0186186186186186186186186186
187.0Boston UniversityPat0.0187187187187187187187187187
188.0EvansvilleMVC0.0188188188188188188188188188
189.0LipscombASun0.0189189189189189189189189189
190.0WoffordSC0.0190190190190190190190190190
191.0San Jose St.MWC0.0191191191191191191191191191
192.0MercerSC0.0192192192192192192192192192
193.0LSUSEC0.0193193193193193193193193193
194.0Sam Houston St.Slnd0.0194194194194194194194194194
195.0MassachusettsA100.0195195195195195195195195195
196.0HofstraCAA0.0196196196196196196196196196
197.0Saint Joseph'sA100.0197197197197197197197197197
198.0RiderMAAC0.0198198198198198198198198198
199.0North Carolina CentralMEAC0.0199199199199199199199199199
200.0Morehead St.OVC0.0200200200200200200200200200
201.0UABCUSA0.0201201201201201201201201201
202.0Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.0202202202202202202202202202
203.0PennIvy0.0203203203203203203203203203
204.0Holy CrossPat0.0204204204204204204204204204
205.0San DiegoWCC0.0205205205205205205205205205
206.0Utah ValleyWAC0.0206206206206206206206206206
207.0DenverSum0.0207207207207207207207207207
208.0NavyPat0.0208208208208208208208208208
209.0IdahoBSky0.0209209209209209209209209209
210.0Missouri St.MVC0.0210210210210210210210210210
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
211.0WashingtonP120.0211211211211211211211211211
212.0Loyola MDPat0.0212212212212212212212212212
213.0East CarolinaAmer0.0213213213213213213213213213
214.0Long Beach St.BW0.0214214214214214214214214214
215.0FordhamA100.0215215215215215215215215215
216.0Central MichiganMAC0.0216216216216216216216216216
217.0North FloridaASun0.0217217217217217217217217217
218.0IUPUISum0.0218218218218218218218218218
219.0Boston CollegeACC0.0219219219219219219219219219
220.0BradleyMVC0.0220220220220220220220220220
221.0MontanaBSky0.0221221221221221221221221221
222.0UTEPCUSA0.0222222222222222222222222222
223.0PacificWCC0.0223223223223223223223223223
224.0LIU BrooklynNEC0.0224224224224224224224224224
225.0Bowling GreenMAC0.0225225225225225225225225225
226.0Western KentuckyCUSA0.0226226226226226226226226226
227.0RadfordBSth0.0227227227227227227227227227
228.0Alcorn St.SWAC0.0228228228228228228228228228
229.0USC UpstateASun0.0229229229229229229229229229
230.0Murray St.OVC0.0230230230230230230230230230
231.0South AlabamaSB0.0231231231231231231231231231
232.0LamarSlnd0.0232232232232232232232232232
233.0PortlandWCC0.0233233233233233233233233233
234.0Indiana St.MVC0.0234234234234234234234234234
235.0DelawareCAA0.0235235235235235235235235235
236.0High PointBSth0.0236236236236236236236236236
237.0Robert MorrisNEC0.0237237237237237237237237237
238.0Saint LouisA100.0238238238238238238238238238
239.0DePaulBE0.0239239239239239239239239239
240.0CharlotteCUSA0.0240240240240240240240240240
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
241.0Northern IllinoisMAC0.0241241241241241241241241241
242.0UNLVMWC0.0242242242242242242242242242
243.0Little RockSB0.0243243243243243243243243243
244.0WagnerNEC0.0244244244244244244244244244
245.0PepperdineWCC0.0245245245245245245245245245
246.0CampbellBSth0.0246246246246246246246246246
247.0Eastern KentuckyOVC0.0247247247247247247247247247
248.0Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.0248248248248248248248248248
249.0Illinois ChicagoHorz0.0249249249249249249249249249
250.0Air ForceMWC0.0250250250250250250250250250
251.0Youngstown St.Horz0.0251251251251251251251251251
252.0Nicholls St.Slnd0.0252252252252252252252252252
253.0Montana St.BSky0.0253253253253253253253253253
254.0Norfolk St.MEAC0.0254254254254254254254254254
255.0James MadisonCAA0.0255255255255255255255255255
256.0MilwaukeeHorz0.0256256256256256256256256256
257.0MissouriSEC0.0257257257257257257257257257
258.0St. Francis PANEC0.0258258258258258258258258258
259.0Kennesaw St.ASun0.0259259259259259259259259259
260.0Cleveland St.Horz0.0260260260260260260260260260
261.0Austin PeayOVC0.0261261261261261261261261261
262.0ColumbiaIvy0.0262262262262262262262262262
263.0ManhattanMAAC0.0263263263263263263263263263
264.0UTSACUSA0.0264264264264264264264264264
265.0Eastern IllinoisOVC0.0265265265265265265265265265
266.0ArmyPat0.0266266266266266266266266266
267.0DuquesneA100.0267267267267267267267267267
268.0Portland St.BSky0.0268268268268268268268268268
269.0Cal St. FullertonBW0.0269269269269269269269269269
270.0CornellIvy0.0270270270270270270270270270
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
271.0Western CarolinaSC0.0271271271271271271271271271
272.0QuinnipiacMAAC0.0272272272272272272272272272
273.0Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.0273273273273273273273273273
274.0Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.0274274274274274274274274274
275.0NiagaraMAAC0.0275275275275275275275275275
276.0MaristMAAC0.0276276276276276276276276276
277.0Tennessee TechOVC0.0277277277277277277277277277
278.0Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.0278278278278278278278278278
279.0Savannah St.MEAC0.0279279279279279279279279279
280.0Oregon St.P120.0280280280280280280280280280
281.0Florida AtlanticCUSA0.0281281281281281281281281281
282.0The CitadelSC0.0282282282282282282282282282
283.0HamptonMEAC0.0283283283283283283283283283
284.0BrownIvy0.0284284284284284284284284284
285.0BryantNEC0.0285285285285285285285285285
286.0Northern ColoradoBSky0.0286286286286286286286286286
287.0SeattleWAC0.0287287287287287287287287287
288.0Abilene ChristianSlnd0.0288288288288288288288288288
289.0DetroitHorz0.0289289289289289289289289289
290.0NJITASun0.0290290290290290290290290290
291.0JacksonvilleASun0.0291291291291291291291291291
292.0Oral RobertsSum0.0292292292292292292292292292
293.0Sacramento St.BSky0.0293293293293293293293293293
294.0ColgatePat0.0294294294294294294294294294
295.0Charleston SouthernBSth0.0295295295295295295295295295
296.0TulaneAmer0.0296296296296296296296296296
297.0Cal PolyBW0.0297297297297297297297297297
298.0Louisiana MonroeSB0.0298298298298298298298298298
299.0South Carolina St.MEAC0.0299299299299299299299299299
300.0HawaiiBW0.0300300300300300300300300300
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
301.0Appalachian St.SB0.0301301301301301301301301301
302.0Miami OHMAC0.0302302302302302302302302302
303.0Incarnate WordSlnd0.0303303303303303303303303303
304.0Sacred HeartNEC0.0304304304304304304304304304
305.0DartmouthIvy0.0305305305305305305305305305
306.0Northwestern St.Slnd0.0306306306306306306306306306
307.0Prairie View A&MSWAC0.0307307307307307307307307307
308.0DrexelCAA0.0308308308308308308308308308
309.0UMass LowellAE0.0309309309309309309309309309
310.0AmericanPat0.0310310310310310310310310310
311.0BinghamtonAE0.0311311311311311311311311311
312.0Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.0312312312312312312312312312
313.0Central ArkansasSlnd0.0313313313313313313313313313
314.0DrakeMVC0.0314314314314314314314314314
315.0McNeese St.Slnd0.0315315315315315315315315315
316.0South FloridaAmer0.0316316316316316316316316316
317.0Grambling St.SWAC0.0317317317317317317317317317
318.0Chicago St.WAC0.0318318318318318318318318318
319.0UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.0319319319319319319319319319
320.0SouthernSWAC0.0320320320320320320320320320
321.0LafayettePat0.0321321321321321321321321321
322.0MaineAE0.0322322322322322322322322322
323.0Jackson St.SWAC0.0323323323323323323323323323
324.0UC Santa BarbaraBW0.0324324324324324324324324324
325.0Western IllinoisSum0.0325325325325325325325325325
326.0Morgan St.MEAC0.0326326326326326326326326326
327.0HartfordAE0.0327327327327327327327327327
328.0StetsonASun0.0328328328328328328328328328
329.0VMISC0.0329329329329329329329329329
330.0UC RiversideBW0.0330330330330330330330330330
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
331.0Southern MissCUSA0.0331331331331331331331331331
332.0Delaware St.MEAC0.0332332332332332332332332332
333.0SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.0333333333333333333333333333
334.0Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.0334334334334334334334334334
335.0Northern ArizonaBSky0.0335335335335335335335335335
336.0Coppin St.MEAC0.0336336336336336336336336336
337.0HowardMEAC0.0337337337337337337337337337
338.0FIUCUSA0.0338338338338338338338338338
339.0North TexasCUSA0.0339339339339339339339339339
340.0Idaho St.BSky0.0340340340340340340340340340
341.0Southern UtahBSky0.0341341341341341341341341341
342.0Alabama St.SWAC0.0342342342342342342342342342
343.0LongwoodBSth0.0343343343343343343343343343
344.0Central ConnecticutNEC0.0344344344344344344344344344
345.0Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.0345345345345345345345345345
346.0Bethune CookmanMEAC0.0346346346346346346346346346
347.0PresbyterianBSth0.0347347347347347347347347347
348.0St. Francis NYNEC0.0348348348348348348348348348
349.0Florida A&MMEAC0.0349349349349349349349349349
350.0North Carolina A&TMEAC0.0350350350350350350350350350
351.0Alabama A&MSWAC0.0351351351351351351351351351