Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Bracket Busters - Blog

Below are summary statistics for end-of-season RPI Ranks using 10,000 simulations of all future games.

Using the probability of winning for each team and each future game, 10,000 simulated seasons are run, the resulting RPIs are sorted and ranks are assigned. Expected Rank is the mean from these simulations. All 10,000 Ranks are presented for each team in histograms found by clicking on the team name. You can think of the min and max as the best and worst case scenarios for the team.
How does the RPI Forecast work?

Some numbers (e.g., 1-50 W-L, 51-100 W-L, etc.) are rounded and may not sum up to totals.

EXPECTED RPI RANK is the best estimate for an individual team of its end-of-season RPI Rank. Because they are expectations, they do not have to be 1, 2, 3, etc.
OVERALL is the one most likely overall outcome for all Division 1 teams if I am forced to rank teams 1, 2, 3, etc. It corresponds to the RPI Forecast number column and may not be the same as ranking the Expected RPI Rank column.

New! For Simulations INCLUDING CONFERENCE TOURNAMENTS, click here (updated at least weekly)

Through games of Feb 7, 2010.

Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
1.8	Kansas	B12	1.2	1	1	1	1	1	2	3	5	19
3.0	Syracuse	BE	1.7	1	1	1	2	3	4	5	7	13
3.7	Duke	ACC	2.0	1	1	2	2	3	5	6	8	25
3.9	West Virginia	BE	2.2	1	1	1	2	4	5	7	9	23
6.1	Kentucky	SEC	3.1	1	2	3	4	5	7	10	15	33
6.2	Villanova	BE	3.2	1	2	3	4	6	7	10	15	32
7.0	Kansas St.	B12	2.8	1	3	4	5	6	8	10	15	33
8.9	Georgetown	BE	4.1	1	4	5	6	8	10	14	20	41
12.3	Wisconsin	B10	5.3	4	6	7	9	11	15	20	26	51
14.3	New Mexico	MWC	4.8	5	8	9	11	13	17	21	26	46
14.8	Tennessee	SEC	7.2	3	6	8	9	13	18	25	34	62
14.9	Purdue	B10	6.6	4	7	8	10	13	18	24	32	52
15.2	Texas	B12	7.0	3	6	8	10	14	19	24	33	57
15.9	Brigham Young	MWC	5.7	6	9	10	12	15	19	24	30	54
17.9	Butler	Horz	5.6	7	10	12	14	17	21	26	31	54
19.0	Northern Iowa	MVC	7.7	6	9	11	13	18	23	30	38	59
20.7	Rhode Island	A10	8.0	5	9	12	15	19	25	32	39	56
21.8	Vanderbilt	SEC	10.4	4	8	10	14	20	28	36	47	78
23.2	Baylor	B12	10.9	4	8	11	15	21	30	39	49	77
23.3	Texas A&M	B12	10.7	4	8	11	15	22	30	38	48	66
23.6	Michigan St.	B10	9.8	6	10	12	16	22	29	37	46	70
24.1	California	P10	9.5	7	11	13	17	22	29	38	47	80
24.9	Temple	A10	8.9	8	12	15	18	23	30	37	46	69
25.2	Georgia Tech	ACC	10.7	5	9	13	17	23	32	41	49	69
25.2	Wake Forest	ACC	11.5	4	9	12	16	23	33	42	51	74
26.0	Pittsburgh	BE	10.5	4	10	13	18	25	33	41	49	74
26.6	Xavier	A10	9.0	9	14	16	20	25	31	39	48	76
32.1	Dayton	A10	11.0	9	15	19	24	30	39	47	57	81
32.4	Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	9.0	12	18	22	26	31	38	45	52	73
33.6	Utah St.	WAC	10.0	12	19	22	26	32	40	48	56	76
Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
34.4	UAB	CUSA	11.0	8	17	21	26	33	42	50	58	77
34.4	Siena	MAAC	8.0	12	21	25	29	33	39	45	53	74
35.4	Old Dominion	CAA	8.9	14	21	24	29	34	41	48	55	74
35.5	Maryland	ACC	12.8	7	14	20	26	34	44	53	62	86
35.5	Gonzaga	WCC	8.6	16	23	25	28	35	41	47	54	77
36.4	Louisville	BE	12.7	5	15	20	27	36	45	53	63	88
37.6	Clemson	ACC	12.1	9	17	22	28	37	46	54	62	83
38.1	Ohio St.	B10	12.2	12	18	23	29	37	46	55	64	99
38.1	Richmond	A10	10.9	11	19	24	30	38	46	53	60	77
39.0	Missouri	B12	12.8	8	17	23	29	38	48	56	65	100
41.5	Florida St.	ACC	12.7	10	19	25	32	41	51	58	67	89
42.1	St. Mary's	WCC	7.2	23	29	33	37	42	47	51	57	76
42.6	Mississippi	SEC	11.5	13	22	28	34	42	51	58	66	88
43.2	Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	10.2	17	26	31	36	42	50	57	65	89
44.0	San Diego St.	MWC	11.1	16	25	30	35	44	52	58	67	94
46.3	Wichita St.	MVC	10.5	19	28	34	39	46	53	60	69	94
47.1	Charlotte	A10	12.1	13	24	31	39	47	56	63	71	93
47.7	Oklahoma St.	B12	13.0	9	23	31	38	48	57	64	73	92
49.2	Northeastern	CAA	9.8	22	32	37	42	49	55	62	70	91
50.4	Washington	P10	12.8	20	28	34	41	49	58	68	79	113
50.5	Florida	SEC	12.8	11	26	34	41	51	59	67	75	95
52.1	Cornell	Ivy	6.9	32	40	44	47	52	56	61	67	94
53.5	Texas El Paso	CUSA	10.6	26	34	40	46	53	60	67	76	103
54.2	Connecticut	BE	14.1	12	27	36	45	54	63	72	83	104
54.4	Texas Tech	B12	15.0	5	25	34	44	55	64	74	83	103
55.4	Marquette	BE	13.2	22	31	39	46	55	64	73	84	117
56.7	William & Mary	CAA	10.8	25	36	43	49	56	64	71	79	100
57.5	Kent St.	MAC	10.8	28	39	44	50	57	64	72	81	118
61.1	Cincinnati	BE	12.8	19	35	45	53	61	70	78	84	106
61.2	Minnesota	B10	13.8	24	36	44	52	61	70	79	90	127
Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
61.3	Louisiana Tech	WAC	10.7	27	42	48	54	61	68	75	84	113
62.2	Virginia Tech	ACC	14.9	17	34	43	52	61	72	82	94	125
63.1	Tulsa	CUSA	13.7	22	37	45	54	63	72	81	91	126
64.6	Nevada	WAC	14.7	30	39	47	55	63	73	84	97	151
64.8	Mississippi St.	SEC	13.9	27	39	47	55	64	74	82	94	130
64.9	South Florida	BE	12.2	23	42	50	57	64	73	81	90	115
65.5	Memphis	CUSA	11.6	34	45	51	57	64	73	81	90	120
68.0	Murray St.	OVC	8.3	46	55	58	62	67	73	79	87	115
71.5	Arizona St.	P10	11.3	44	53	58	63	71	78	86	97	134
72.6	Seton Hall	BE	14.6	33	47	55	62	71	81	92	106	152
72.6	Oakland	Sum	9.7	53	59	62	65	71	78	86	96	124
74.3	South Carolina	SEC	15.9	22	44	54	64	74	85	94	107	138
75.1	Notre Dame	BE	14.3	23	48	57	66	74	84	95	104	126
76.5	Illinois	B10	12.7	29	52	60	68	77	85	92	103	117
79.8	Oklahoma	B12	15.6	28	50	60	70	80	90	100	112	126
79.9	Sam Houston St.	Slnd	14.1	51	59	64	70	78	88	98	113	157
79.9	Iona	MAAC	12.6	49	59	65	71	79	88	97	108	138
80.8	Weber St.	BSky	13.0	55	62	66	71	79	89	98	112	152
81.0	Southern California	P10	14.1	41	57	64	71	79	90	100	110	147
81.7	Arizona	P10	13.6	45	58	65	72	81	91	99	111	147
82.0	Marshall	CUSA	14.9	41	57	64	72	80	91	102	116	159
82.7	New Mexico St.	WAC	15.1	35	56	64	72	82	92	102	115	153
82.9	Wright St.	Horz	13.1	55	63	68	74	81	90	101	114	155
83.6	North Carolina	ACC	15.3	38	56	64	73	83	94	104	115	143
84.3	Portland	WCC	12.7	57	64	69	76	83	92	101	113	145
85.5	Missouri St.	MVC	15.1	45	61	67	75	84	94	106	119	158
88.9	Northwestern	B10	15.0	50	64	71	78	87	98	108	122	158
89.5	Harvard	Ivy	13.4	59	68	74	80	88	97	107	121	161
90.2	College of Charleston	SC	14.7	52	67	73	80	88	99	111	123	155
90.7	Miami FL	ACC	18.4	32	58	68	78	90	103	114	130	158
Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
91.9	Indiana St.	MVC	15.4	46	65	73	81	90	102	113	124	147
92.0	Virginia	ACC	17.5	37	61	70	80	91	103	116	130	150
95.2	Morehead St.	OVC	14.4	61	71	78	84	94	104	114	128	159
98.2	Providence	BE	14.8	44	70	79	87	98	109	117	128	140
100.2	Wofford	SC	14.3	70	78	83	90	98	108	119	135	170
101.2	St. John's	BE	18.6	39	68	78	88	100	113	126	140	160
101.2	Western Carolina	SC	17.5	60	74	81	89	99	111	125	142	185
101.8	Georgia	SEC	21.3	40	65	76	86	100	116	131	147	175
102.5	Montana	BSky	13.4	75	84	88	92	100	110	121	135	176
103.7	Northern Colorado	BSky	12.1	72	85	90	95	102	111	120	132	163
105.7	Drexel	CAA	15.6	67	79	87	94	105	115	127	140	172
106.3	Morgan St.	MEAC	12.9	76	87	92	97	104	114	124	138	170
106.5	Alabama	SEC	17.2	60	77	85	94	106	118	129	144	170
106.7	IUPUI	Sum	12.6	79	86	92	98	105	114	124	135	174
106.8	Boston College	ACC	16.8	56	77	86	95	106	118	130	141	160
108.0	Illinois St.	MVC	19.0	62	76	85	94	106	121	133	149	177
108.8	Fairfield	MAAC	18.0	62	78	87	96	107	120	134	148	176
110.1	Iowa St.	B12	17.6	51	78	88	98	109	121	135	146	165
110.7	North Carolina St.	ACC	18.1	59	78	88	97	110	123	136	147	169
111.0	Washington St.	P10	19.3	61	78	86	97	110	125	137	151	175
111.9	Southern Mississippi	CUSA	20.6	57	77	86	98	110	124	141	157	206
113.3	Akron	MAC	19.0	67	82	90	99	111	125	140	156	183
113.5	Colorado St.	MWC	19.1	59	79	89	100	114	125	139	154	172
115.5	Bradley	MVC	18.8	65	81	92	102	114	128	141	154	177
115.6	Pacific	BW	19.7	72	84	92	101	113	128	143	160	196
120.1	Princeton	Ivy	19.7	66	86	96	105	119	133	146	163	200
120.9	Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	18.0	74	89	98	108	119	133	145	158	185
121.6	Western Michigan	MAC	19.8	76	89	97	107	120	134	149	165	204
122.0	Oral Roberts	Sum	16.4	86	96	102	110	119	133	145	157	188
123.2	Duquesne	A10	21.5	63	84	95	109	123	137	153	167	199
Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
123.3	Creighton	MVC	20.9	70	87	97	108	123	138	152	166	197
124.0	St. Louis	A10	23.9	54	80	93	107	124	142	155	171	197
126.3	Arkansas	SEC	19.7	68	90	101	112	126	141	153	165	189
127.1	Nebraska	B12	21.3	62	87	100	112	126	142	156	168	191
129.1	Coastal Carolina	BSth	13.3	100	109	114	119	127	137	148	160	195
129.7	Austin Peay	OVC	20.1	79	95	105	114	128	144	157	171	205
131.4	Eastern Kentucky	OVC	20.2	79	96	105	117	130	145	158	172	211
132.8	George Mason	CAA	20.6	68	94	105	118	133	147	160	172	193
133.6	Southern Illinois	MVC	20.5	79	97	107	118	134	148	160	175	200
134.2	Buffalo	MAC	20.6	73	95	107	119	134	149	162	173	199
134.5	Appalachian St.	SC	21.8	85	97	108	117	132	150	165	178	222
135.6	Miami OH	MAC	21.2	80	98	108	120	136	149	164	179	209
136.4	Colorado	B12	21.9	70	96	106	121	138	152	165	178	197
136.9	George Washington	A10	18.4	86	103	114	123	136	150	161	174	204
138.0	East Tennessee St.	ASun	17.1	97	108	117	125	138	150	160	174	218
138.5	La Salle	A10	19.4	82	102	113	124	138	153	164	174	196
138.6	Quinnipiac	NEC	16.9	104	113	118	126	136	150	161	176	212
139.7	Long Beach St.	BW	23.2	79	98	110	122	138	156	171	187	223
139.8	Belmont	ASun	14.2	107	118	123	128	139	149	160	171	201
141.9	San Jose St.	WAC	24.5	69	95	110	123	142	161	174	186	211
143.2	Jacksonville	ASun	18.3	103	112	119	130	143	155	168	182	210
143.6	Michigan	B10	21.3	70	102	116	128	143	159	172	182	203
144.5	Houston	CUSA	22.7	85	104	116	127	143	160	175	191	221
144.6	UC Santa Barbara	BW	23.3	86	103	114	128	144	160	175	191	230
144.7	Cleveland St.	Horz	21.5	79	103	116	129	145	160	173	185	211
145.1	Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	24.2	84	103	113	127	145	162	176	193	235
145.2	St. Peter's	MAAC	18.2	97	111	122	132	145	158	169	182	209
145.4	Vermont	AE	16.4	102	115	124	134	144	157	167	178	205
146.7	UCLA	P10	19.0	78	109	121	133	148	161	170	181	196
147.7	Ohio	MAC	22.2	80	105	118	132	149	164	176	190	226
Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
148.3	Stony Brook	AE	20.1	98	113	122	134	148	162	174	190	231
148.7	Denver	SB	24.1	86	106	117	131	150	165	180	197	228
149.2	Idaho	WAC	22.9	82	105	119	134	149	165	179	193	227
152.1	Oregon	P10	21.7	71	108	123	138	153	167	180	190	208
152.4	Boston University	AE	17.2	112	123	129	141	151	165	175	187	216
153.8	Robert Morris	NEC	17.7	104	120	131	141	154	166	176	188	226
154.9	Maine	AE	17.4	103	122	132	143	155	166	178	190	217
157.5	Niagara	MAAC	18.3	101	121	133	145	158	171	180	192	216
158.4	North Texas	SB	20.8	108	120	130	143	159	173	185	200	238
158.8	Davidson	SC	21.0	98	119	130	144	160	173	185	201	233
159.1	Western Kentucky	SB	22.1	101	117	129	144	160	173	187	204	240
159.5	Rider	MAAC	17.8	93	123	135	148	161	172	182	191	207
160.4	Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	20.4	99	120	134	146	160	175	187	200	231
160.8	Lehigh	Pat	21.1	107	121	134	145	161	176	187	203	240
160.9	Fresno St.	WAC	21.2	92	119	132	146	162	176	187	201	229
161.8	Rutgers	BE	19.7	84	119	136	149	163	176	186	196	208
162.8	Utah	MWC	20.2	93	120	135	150	164	177	188	201	224
162.9	Detroit	Horz	19.9	104	126	136	150	163	176	189	203	239
163.8	Auburn	SEC	19.9	90	122	138	151	165	178	188	199	222
167.5	Arkansas St.	SB	20.3	107	129	140	154	169	181	194	207	235
167.6	Valparaiso	Horz	21.1	100	125	140	153	169	182	193	209	232
170.0	Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	24.6	101	122	137	154	170	186	202	219	254
170.2	Troy	SB	20.9	115	129	144	154	171	186	196	212	241
173.0	Radford	BSth	21.0	121	132	146	158	174	187	199	215	247
173.0	Stanford	P10	23.6	93	126	140	157	174	190	203	216	233
174.6	Texas Christian	MWC	18.2	108	136	151	162	176	188	197	208	223
177.3	Hofstra	CAA	18.7	117	142	153	165	177	189	202	215	239
177.5	Saint Joseph's	A10	20.0	100	135	152	164	179	192	202	213	227
179.5	Drake	MVC	17.3	114	144	157	168	180	191	202	211	231
179.5	Loyola MD	MAAC	16.8	130	147	158	167	179	191	201	213	239
Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
180.2	DePaul	BE	18.9	101	140	155	168	182	194	204	214	229
181.1	Winthrop	BSth	18.1	122	147	158	170	180	194	203	219	252
183.0	Texas San Antonio	Slnd	23.5	113	139	152	167	183	199	214	230	263
184.1	St. Bonaventure	A10	22.5	98	139	156	168	184	200	213	226	251
184.8	Loyola Chicago	Horz	18.8	119	147	160	172	186	197	209	219	241
186.3	Central Michigan	MAC	23.8	110	139	156	170	186	202	218	233	261
186.5	Mount St. Mary's	NEC	16.5	150	160	165	175	185	198	208	223	255
188.1	Middle Tennessee	SB	17.5	138	155	166	175	187	201	211	224	245
190.8	Campbell	ASun	19.2	132	154	167	177	190	205	216	229	256
192.5	Montana St.	BSky	19.3	132	157	167	181	191	206	219	230	249
192.9	Central Florida	CUSA	19.8	111	153	168	179	193	207	218	230	250
194.2	Massachusetts	A10	19.6	98	153	168	181	195	208	219	229	243
197.1	Bowling Green	MAC	21.0	115	154	170	183	197	212	225	235	256
197.3	Southern Methodist	CUSA	20.6	102	154	170	184	198	212	223	236	256
199.8	Iowa	B10	14.1	114	169	181	191	201	210	217	224	236
201.1	Florida Atlantic	SB	20.5	141	161	175	186	200	216	229	240	260
201.5	Lipscomb	ASun	14.8	166	178	183	190	200	212	221	233	263
202.4	Tennessee Tech	OVC	17.6	128	167	179	190	204	215	225	233	249
202.7	Canisius	MAAC	15.9	150	171	181	192	203	214	223	233	250
202.8	Oregon St.	P10	19.0	117	163	177	190	204	218	226	236	247
203.7	Louisiana Lafayette	SB	21.7	134	162	175	188	204	221	231	244	266
203.7	Lafayette	Pat	20.2	143	165	177	189	204	219	229	242	262
204.0	Army	Pat	21.8	149	163	177	186	203	222	232	245	275
204.1	Northern Arizona	BSky	18.5	140	169	179	191	206	216	229	237	256
204.5	Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	22.6	140	161	176	187	203	221	235	247	281
204.6	South Dakota St.	Sum	17.3	152	171	182	193	204	218	227	237	254
205.0	Loyola Marymount	WCC	17.7	123	168	182	193	205	218	228	237	250
205.9	Texas Southern	SWAC	18.9	158	172	183	191	206	218	231	245	291
206.5	Wyoming	MWC	15.4	134	174	185	197	208	218	225	233	244
206.6	Indiana	B10	15.9	129	173	185	196	208	218	227	233	242
Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
207.7	Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	19.0	162	176	182	195	205	220	235	247	286
209.3	The Citadel	SC	18.5	144	172	186	196	209	223	233	243	261
209.9	Penn St.	B10	17.0	131	173	187	199	211	223	231	237	247
210.1	Ball St.	MAC	19.4	138	173	184	197	211	223	236	246	272
210.1	Portland St.	BSky	21.0	131	167	181	195	212	226	236	246	265
212.6	Cal St. Fullerton	BW	21.2	145	171	184	197	214	229	240	251	275
213.6	Eastern Michigan	MAC	20.9	136	171	185	198	215	230	239	250	275
214.0	Boise St.	WAC	17.9	139	177	191	202	214	227	237	246	270
214.2	South Carolina St.	MEAC	21.2	144	174	186	199	214	229	242	255	289
217.4	NC Wilmington	CAA	18.4	140	179	192	205	219	231	240	250	269
217.6	Eastern Illinois	OVC	18.8	155	180	192	205	219	232	241	251	279
219.8	Chattanooga	SC	18.9	145	181	193	208	222	233	244	253	268
220.8	Santa Clara	WCC	11.8	171	197	205	213	221	229	236	242	258
220.8	Louisiana St.	SEC	16.8	136	183	197	210	223	234	241	247	256
221.2	South Alabama	SB	15.0	167	190	201	211	223	232	240	247	261
222.4	Seattle	ind	18.1	160	186	198	210	223	235	245	256	293
222.5	San Francisco	WCC	15.8	159	191	200	213	223	235	241	250	262
223.8	North Florida	ASun	16.4	167	190	202	212	226	236	243	253	271
225.4	San Diego	WCC	11.5	175	201	210	219	226	234	239	246	260
225.5	Cal St. Northridge	BW	20.2	154	183	198	213	227	240	250	262	294
226.0	Delaware	CAA	16.4	161	190	203	216	228	238	246	253	267
229.3	Bethune Cookman	MEAC	19.7	163	190	203	215	230	243	254	266	302
230.3	Mercer	ASun	18.1	152	192	207	217	232	244	252	261	280
231.8	Georgia St.	CAA	16.2	164	197	210	222	233	243	252	261	278
234.4	Hawaii	WAC	15.9	160	197	213	225	236	246	253	260	273
235.8	Air Force	MWC	14.6	167	202	215	227	238	247	253	257	266
236.2	South Dakota	GWC	14.7	202	213	218	224	236	245	256	269	304
236.6	Delaware St.	MEAC	22.0	166	191	205	222	239	252	262	278	311
237.3	Binghamton	AE	15.1	170	204	218	227	239	247	256	263	281
239.8	Lamar	Slnd	22.0	150	191	211	228	241	254	267	281	300
Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
240.2	Manhattan	MAAC	14.2	180	210	221	232	241	250	258	265	281
240.9	Sacred Heart	NEC	17.2	188	207	219	231	240	252	264	275	304
241.9	IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	16.5	186	210	219	231	243	253	262	275	303
243.1	East Carolina	CUSA	15.1	164	209	223	234	244	254	261	269	281
244.2	James Madison	CAA	15.0	179	210	225	235	245	255	262	270	286
244.3	Jackson St.	SWAC	17.6	182	207	221	234	245	256	266	279	310
246.7	NC Asheville	BSth	15.3	194	216	227	237	247	257	266	277	298
250.0	Northern Illinois	MAC	16.5	176	215	230	239	251	261	271	280	303
250.1	Columbia	Ivy	18.4	182	214	227	237	250	263	273	286	307
250.9	Prairie View A&M	SWAC	20.6	197	215	224	238	249	262	278	295	334
252.2	Liberty	BSth	16.2	187	220	232	241	253	263	273	284	300
255.7	Tulane	CUSA	13.8	197	227	238	247	256	265	274	280	292
255.8	Yale	Ivy	14.5	192	228	238	246	255	265	275	286	308
256.5	Texas St.	Slnd	20.4	169	214	231	244	256	270	283	295	316
257.2	Samford	SC	15.3	194	226	237	248	258	267	277	286	301
257.4	Youngstown St.	Horz	14.8	187	226	238	248	258	268	276	283	295
258.2	Long Island	NEC	16.7	203	226	239	246	258	270	279	293	312
263.1	NC Greensboro	SC	14.4	203	235	245	253	263	274	282	290	303
264.2	UC Riverside	BW	16.4	203	232	244	253	263	276	286	296	312
264.4	Texas Arlington	Slnd	20.3	188	225	240	250	264	279	292	302	318
265.2	Jacksonville St.	OVC	17.2	206	233	244	253	265	277	288	298	314
266.3	Brown	Ivy	15.0	203	238	248	255	266	277	286	296	311
266.4	Arkansas Little Rock	SB	17.9	192	228	243	255	267	279	290	298	313
266.7	Furman	SC	16.9	207	234	245	255	267	279	288	299	311
267.9	North Carolina A&T	MEAC	19.7	200	231	244	254	266	282	295	307	327
268.6	Charleston Southern	BSth	17.1	197	234	247	255	269	281	291	302	316
269.0	Holy Cross	Pat	17.7	212	235	247	256	269	282	292	304	318
269.1	North Dakota St.	Sum	14.6	205	239	250	259	269	280	287	296	307
269.1	Navy	Pat	17.4	195	235	247	256	269	283	291	301	312
269.4	High Point	BSth	19.3	202	232	246	255	269	284	294	306	325
Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
269.6	Louisiana Monroe	SB	16.2	206	236	248	259	269	282	290	299	310
272.8	Cal Poly	BW	18.2	189	236	249	260	274	286	297	306	316
273.4	New Hampshire	AE	20.4	197	232	246	260	275	288	300	310	328
273.8	Kennesaw St.	ASun	14.1	208	245	254	264	276	283	293	298	305
275.5	Idaho St.	BSky	18.0	198	240	252	263	276	289	300	307	320
275.6	St. Francis NY	NEC	15.0	230	247	256	265	275	286	296	304	318
276.1	Evansville	MVC	13.2	218	248	258	267	277	286	292	298	307
276.3	Bucknell	Pat	16.5	225	244	255	264	276	289	298	306	319
276.7	Tennessee St.	OVC	15.8	220	245	256	266	277	288	298	305	319
277.0	UC Irvine	BW	17.9	211	242	254	264	277	290	301	309	327
277.8	Monmouth	NEC	16.0	222	246	257	267	277	290	299	306	321
278.3	Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	15.9	203	246	257	267	280	290	298	306	316
279.4	Missouri Kansas City	Sum	14.9	225	250	259	269	281	290	299	306	316
282.7	Elon	SC	16.5	206	250	261	271	283	295	304	311	323
283.4	Pepperdine	WCC	15.1	224	251	263	273	284	296	302	306	315
284.9	Hartford	AE	15.0	221	254	264	275	287	296	304	310	324
285.0	McNeese St.	Slnd	17.9	202	247	260	273	286	298	308	315	328
285.3	UC Davis	BW	18.9	201	246	259	272	288	300	309	316	326
286.4	Florida International	SB	12.5	234	259	269	278	288	296	302	306	314
286.6	Hampton	MEAC	16.3	242	255	265	275	286	298	308	316	338
286.8	Longwood	ind	18.5	224	250	262	273	288	301	310	319	333
287.6	Sacramento St.	BSky	12.5	230	259	271	279	289	297	303	307	315
288.1	Rice	CUSA	13.8	231	257	269	279	290	299	304	311	320
292.0	Nicholls St.	Slnd	19.3	207	249	265	279	294	307	315	321	333
292.1	Towson	CAA	12.6	237	264	275	284	294	302	307	312	322
292.2	Centenary	Sum	13.4	237	264	274	283	294	302	309	313	320
293.1	Albany	AE	14.3	242	263	273	283	294	304	311	316	324
293.2	Eastern Washington	BSky	12.7	236	264	275	285	295	303	308	312	320
293.2	Illinois Chicago	Horz	15.9	226	258	271	283	296	306	312	316	325
296.2	Fordham	A10	9.6	238	272	283	292	298	303	306	309	317
Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
296.7	Georgia Southern	SC	15.2	242	260	275	288	300	309	314	319	329
297.7	Pennsylvania	Ivy	12.8	241	268	280	290	300	307	312	317	330
298.6	Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	12.0	241	272	281	291	300	308	313	317	325
298.7	South Carolina Upstate	ASun	14.8	231	266	278	289	301	310	316	323	330
302.5	Alabama St.	SWAC	16.3	240	268	277	292	306	314	321	329	342
306.0	Colgate	Pat	14.3	245	272	286	298	308	316	323	328	336
306.9	American	Pat	13.0	250	275	288	300	309	316	322	327	336
307.7	Western Illinois	Sum	12.8	250	277	290	300	310	316	322	328	335
307.7	Central Connecticut	NEC	13.9	250	275	289	299	310	318	324	330	339
308.9	Gardner Webb	BSth	12.7	245	279	291	302	311	318	323	328	335
309.1	Norfolk St.	MEAC	15.2	239	274	288	300	311	320	327	333	339
311.3	Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	9.5	257	289	298	306	313	318	322	326	332
312.5	St. Francis PA	NEC	13.1	245	281	295	306	314	322	328	333	338
313.8	Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	12.8	248	284	297	307	315	323	329	334	339
313.9	Howard	MEAC	11.3	263	287	298	308	316	322	327	331	339
314.2	Winston Salem St.	ind	15.2	238	277	295	307	316	325	332	336	342
316.7	Virginia Military Inst	BSth	12.5	251	288	299	310	318	326	331	335	339
316.8	Southern Utah	Sum	9.4	264	295	304	312	318	324	328	331	337
316.9	Northwestern St.	Slnd	13.2	244	284	300	310	319	326	332	336	341
318.5	Central Arkansas	Slnd	12.8	251	287	302	312	320	328	333	337	341
319.2	Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	12.9	262	289	301	312	321	329	335	339	344
321.8	Savannah St.	ind	11.0	280	297	306	316	322	331	336	338	342
322.0	Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	10.4	261	297	309	316	324	330	334	336	340
323.0	Toledo	MAC	7.4	264	305	313	319	324	328	331	334	338
323.2	Wagner	NEC	8.1	283	305	312	318	324	329	333	336	340
323.6	Dartmouth	Ivy	10.0	271	299	311	318	325	331	335	337	341
324.6	New Orleans	SB	9.3	266	303	312	319	326	332	335	337	340
325.5	Florida A&M	MEAC	10.9	266	300	311	319	327	334	338	340	344
326.0	Presbyterian	BSth	8.5	275	306	314	321	328	332	335	338	341
326.2	Texas Pan American	GWC	9.8	282	304	313	320	327	334	338	340	346
Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
327.5	Alabama A&M	SWAC	11.7	261	302	311	320	330	337	340	342	347
329.0	SIU Edwardsville	OVC	7.2	287	312	319	324	331	335	337	338	343
329.2	Utah Valley	GWC	10.3	273	305	315	323	331	338	340	343	346
330.1	Marist	MAAC	5.5	287	316	322	328	332	334	335	337	340
331.1	North Dakota	GWC	8.4	287	311	319	326	333	338	340	342	347
331.2	Stetson	ASun	6.1	298	316	323	328	333	336	338	339	342
332.1	Coppin St.	MEAC	8.7	274	310	320	328	335	339	341	343	346
333.3	NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	9.1	266	310	320	329	336	340	342	344	347
335.4	Tennessee Martin	OVC	5.9	291	319	327	333	337	339	340	342	344
338.6	Grambling	SWAC	5.5	285	323	331	337	340	342	344	345	347
339.8	MD Baltimore County	AE	3.2	314	331	336	339	340	342	343	344	347
342.5	Houston Baptist	GWC	3.1	316	335	339	341	343	345	346	347	347
342.8	Southern	SWAC	3.2	316	335	339	341	343	345	346	347	347
342.9	Chicago St.	GWC	2.7	321	337	340	342	343	345	346	347	347
344.6	Bryant	ind	1.7	334	341	342	344	345	346	346	347	347
345.0	Alcorn St.	SWAC	2.0	323	340	342	344	346	346	347	347	347
345.5	North Carolina Central	ind	2.0	331	340	343	344	346	347	347	347	347