Lehigh

Conference:	Pat
Expected RPI:	109.7
Current RPI:	124
Expected SOS:	309
Current SOS:	318
Current Record:	17-6
Expected Record:	22-7
Current Conf Record:	6-2
Expected Conf Record:	11-3
Probability of Auto Bid:	34.40%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	17-1
Current OOC Record:	11-4
Expected OOC Record:	11-4
Expected OOC RPI:	113
Expected OOC SOS:	327

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
23-6	97.4	19.37%
22-7	106.4	42.88%
21-8	116.7	29.42%
20-9	128.5	7.48%
19-10	144.1	0.82%
18-11	154.0	0.02%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Lehigh.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-9	St. John's (151.1)	BE	A	78-73	L	0%	0.0
11-12	Iowa St. (39.6)	B12	A	86-77	L	0%	0.0
11-15	Fairleigh Dickinson (323.4)	NEC	A	61-72	W	100%	0.0
11-18	William & Mary (304.7)	CAA	N	57-82	W	100%	0.0
11-19	Liberty (309.6)	BSth	A	80-90	W	100%	0.0
11-20	Eastern Kentucky (207.4)	OVC	N	76-51	W	100%	0.0
11-28	Quinnipiac (175.1)	NEC	H	86-75	W	100%	0.0
12-1	Fordham (243.2)	A10	A	60-78	W	100%	0.0
12-3	Cornell (178.3)	Ivy	A	81-79	L	0%	0.0
12-7	St. Francis PA (303.9)	NEC	H	71-50	W	100%	0.0
12-10	Wagner (83.5)	NEC	A	69-70	W	100%	0.0
12-22	Michigan St. (8.2)	B10	A	90-81	L	0%	0.0
12-28	St. Peter's (280.4)	MAAC	A	67-76	W	100%	0.0
12-31	Bryant (334.0)	NEC	A	55-72	W	100%	0.0
1-3	Maryland Eastern Shore (319.1)	MEAC	H	82-55	W	100%	0.0
1-7	Holy Cross (226.1)	Pat	A	84-78	L	0%	0.0
1-11	American (150.9)	Pat	H	71-60	W	100%	0.0
1-14	Colgate (296.0)	Pat	A	56-78	W	100%	0.0
1-18	Bucknell (71.1)	Pat	H	61-68	L	0%	0.0
1-22	Lafayette (210.2)	Pat	A	76-90	W	100%	0.0
1-26	Navy (318.8)	Pat	H	71-60	W	100%	0.0
1-29	Army (293.1)	Pat	H	83-64	W	100%	0.0
2-4	Holy Cross (226.1)	Pat	H	75-51	W	100%	0.0
2-9	American (150.9)	Pat	A	0-0		66%	4.6
2-11	Colgate (296.0)	Pat	H	0-0		98%	21.8
2-15	Bucknell (71.1)	Pat	A	0-0		42%	-2.2
2-18	Lafayette (210.2)	Pat	H	0-0		91%	14.8
2-22	Navy (318.8)	Pat	A	0-0		91%	14.7
2-25	Army (293.1)	Pat	A	0-0		84%	10.9

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Lehigh's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Lehigh's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Lehigh.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Lehigh	Pat	26.22	26.29	79.82	81.07	15.63	16.34
American	Pat	2.77	4.30	68.18	67.28	1.01	1.49
Colgate	Pat	2.71	4.27	31.82	31.60	-0.98	-1.57
Lafayette	Pat	2.71	4.27	45.45	45.80	-0.25	-0.36
Bucknell	Pat	2.67	4.24	72.73	74.70	1.21	2.09
Navy	Pat	2.66	4.23	10.00	13.88	-2.13	-3.06
Army	Pat	2.61	4.20	42.86	44.31	-0.37	-0.48
Holy Cross	Pat	4.64	4.17	40.00	41.44	-0.93	-0.71
St. Francis PA	NEC	2.60	2.17	22.73	23.57	-1.42	-1.15
Quinnipiac	NEC	2.55	2.08	59.09	59.19	0.46	0.38
Bryant	NEC	2.46	1.99	8.70	11.23	-2.03	-1.55
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	2.50	1.99	9.09	12.57	-2.05	-1.49
Wagner	NEC	2.41	1.96	86.36	87.59	1.75	1.47
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	2.27	1.85	21.05	20.70	-1.32	-1.08
William & Mary	CAA	2.37	1.84	13.04	13.91	-1.75	-1.33
Cornell	Ivy	2.27	1.84	33.33	39.19	-0.76	-0.40
Fordham	A10	2.27	1.81	42.86	35.74	-0.32	-0.52
Liberty	BSth	2.31	1.81	28.57	28.21	-0.99	-0.79
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	2.27	1.78	52.17	53.58	0.10	0.13
St. John's	BE	2.27	1.78	40.91	38.29	-0.41	-0.42
St. Peter's	MAAC	2.22	1.75	22.73	25.43	-1.21	-0.86
Iowa St.	B12	2.17	1.72	72.73	67.38	0.99	0.60
Michigan St.	B10	2.17	1.72	75.00	71.98	1.09	0.76
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.47	0.45	56.52	55.95	0.06	0.05
Monmouth	NEC	0.38	0.39	28.00	28.91	-0.17	-0.16
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.29	0.36	26.09	28.60	-0.14	-0.15
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.38	0.36	44.00	45.89	-0.05	-0.03
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.33	0.36	45.45	45.70	-0.03	-0.03
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.35	0.33	14.29	17.17	-0.25	-0.22
Columbia	Ivy	0.40	0.33	55.00	54.80	0.04	0.03
Long Island	NEC	0.38	0.33	70.83	71.05	0.16	0.14
Robert Morris	NEC	0.28	0.29	68.00	70.03	0.10	0.12
Binghamton	AE	0.30	0.27	0.00	4.02	-0.30	-0.25
Yale	Ivy	0.24	0.25	72.22	63.19	0.11	0.06
Marist	MAAC	0.19	0.24	34.78	33.43	-0.06	-0.08
Presbyterian	BSth	0.20	0.22	40.91	43.66	-0.04	-0.03
Princeton	Ivy	0.20	0.21	47.37	52.87	-0.01	0.01
La Salle	A10	0.14	0.21	70.83	68.82	0.06	0.08
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.19	0.21	33.33	38.38	-0.06	-0.05
Richmond	A10	0.24	0.21	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.01
Albany	AE	0.20	0.18	60.00	60.42	0.04	0.04
Longwood	ind	0.19	0.18	30.00	27.84	-0.08	-0.08
Hampton	MEAC	0.19	0.18	36.36	38.48	-0.05	-0.04
Syracuse	BE	0.19	0.18	95.83	92.01	0.18	0.15
Providence	BE	0.29	0.18	56.52	50.27	0.04	0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.21	0.16	90.48	87.91	0.17	0.12
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.15	0.16	68.18	69.68	0.06	0.06
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.15	0.15	54.55	56.84	0.01	0.02
Brown	Ivy	0.09	0.15	27.27	23.80	-0.04	-0.08
Siena	MAAC	0.20	0.15	45.45	45.55	-0.02	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.15	0.15	18.18	22.22	-0.09	-0.08
Fairfield	MAAC	0.19	0.15	54.55	54.30	0.02	0.01
Missouri	B12	0.14	0.15	91.30	87.18	0.12	0.11
Minnesota	B10	0.15	0.15	69.57	61.31	0.06	0.03
Air Force	MWC	0.15	0.12	47.37	42.16	-0.01	-0.02
Boston University	AE	0.15	0.12	48.00	51.88	-0.01	0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.15	0.12	60.00	59.06	0.03	0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.20	0.12	35.29	39.85	-0.06	-0.02
New Hampshire	AE	0.15	0.12	35.00	38.58	-0.04	-0.03
Delaware	CAA	0.15	0.12	47.83	50.65	-0.01	0.00
Penn St.	B10	0.10	0.12	41.67	38.67	-0.02	-0.03
Hartford	AE	0.15	0.12	17.39	20.97	-0.10	-0.07
Connecticut	BE	0.19	0.12	68.18	63.99	0.07	0.03
Morehead St.	OVC	0.09	0.12	45.45	46.99	-0.01	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.09	0.12	69.57	65.87	0.04	0.04
Hofstra	CAA	0.09	0.12	32.00	35.39	-0.03	-0.03
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.09	0.12	77.27	73.45	0.05	0.05
Niagara	MAAC	0.14	0.12	37.50	41.54	-0.04	-0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.10	0.12	75.00	73.97	0.05	0.06
Georgetown	BE	0.09	0.12	80.95	77.38	0.06	0.06
Texas A&M	B12	0.14	0.11	52.38	46.15	0.01	-0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.11	0.09	61.90	58.59	0.03	0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.00	0.09	25.00	37.58	-0.00	-0.02
Winthrop	BSth	0.14	0.09	34.78	34.61	-0.04	-0.03
Boston College	ACC	0.14	0.09	30.43	26.44	-0.06	-0.04
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.05	0.09	45.00	44.15	-0.00	-0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.15	0.09	38.89	43.93	-0.03	-0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.10	0.09	19.05	24.61	-0.06	-0.05
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.10	0.09	62.50	62.49	0.02	0.02
Georgia St.	CAA	0.09	0.09	66.67	69.69	0.03	0.03
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.14	0.09	39.13	36.10	-0.03	-0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.10	0.09	40.91	38.38	-0.02	-0.02
George Mason	CAA	0.09	0.09	76.00	72.50	0.05	0.04
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.09	0.09	13.64	16.35	-0.07	-0.06
Pittsburgh	BE	0.09	0.09	60.87	58.16	0.02	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.09	0.09	45.45	46.08	-0.01	-0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.09	0.09	79.17	78.10	0.05	0.05
Manhattan	MAAC	0.10	0.09	68.00	69.07	0.03	0.03
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.14	0.09	80.00	78.06	0.08	0.05
Kansas St.	B12	0.10	0.09	72.73	68.28	0.05	0.03
Iona	MAAC	0.09	0.09	79.17	80.10	0.05	0.05
Michigan	B10	0.10	0.09	72.73	66.81	0.05	0.03
Northeastern	CAA	0.09	0.09	47.83	48.56	-0.00	-0.00
Elon	SC	0.05	0.06	50.00	47.59	0.00	-0.00
Mercer	ASun	0.05	0.06	70.83	71.64	0.02	0.03
Stony Brook	AE	0.10	0.06	66.67	68.05	0.03	0.02
Campbell	BSth	0.05	0.06	56.00	55.65	0.01	0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.05	0.06	55.00	60.33	0.00	0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.05	0.06	72.22	71.97	0.02	0.03
College of Charleston	SC	0.10	0.06	58.33	59.98	0.02	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.00	0.06	42.11	49.81	-0.00	-0.00
Maine	AE	0.10	0.06	50.00	49.73	0.00	-0.00
NC Asheville	BSth	0.10	0.06	68.18	67.64	0.04	0.02
Radford	BSth	0.10	0.06	8.70	13.10	-0.08	-0.05
San Francisco	WCC	0.10	0.06	56.52	53.77	0.01	0.00
The Citadel	SC	0.05	0.06	9.52	11.44	-0.04	-0.05
Buffalo	MAC	0.10	0.06	68.42	66.45	0.04	0.02
Illinois	B10	0.11	0.06	72.73	64.43	0.05	0.02
George Washington	A10	0.10	0.06	34.78	32.08	-0.03	-0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.09	0.06	33.33	35.97	-0.03	-0.02
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.05	0.06	33.33	34.47	-0.02	-0.02
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.05	0.06	36.36	39.72	-0.01	-0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.10	0.06	73.91	68.58	0.05	0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.06	20.83	20.60	-0.03	-0.03
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.05	0.06	26.32	29.71	-0.02	-0.02
Temple	A10	0.05	0.06	77.27	75.06	0.03	0.03
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.09	0.06	56.52	53.10	0.01	0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.05	0.06	60.87	59.76	0.01	0.01
Vermont	AE	0.09	0.06	60.00	62.49	0.02	0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.10	0.06	47.62	46.46	-0.00	-0.00
Louisville	BE	0.09	0.06	78.26	72.66	0.05	0.03
Canisius	MAAC	0.09	0.06	17.39	19.81	-0.06	-0.03
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.06	75.00	75.78	0.03	0.03
James Madison	CAA	0.09	0.06	40.00	40.18	-0.02	-0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.06	52.38	46.68	0.00	-0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.00	0.06	86.96	85.46	0.00	0.04
Old Dominion	CAA	0.05	0.06	60.00	58.29	0.01	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.06	65.22	60.58	0.02	0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.09	0.06	37.50	38.52	-0.02	-0.01
Arizona	P12	0.09	0.06	66.67	68.55	0.03	0.02
Duke	ACC	0.10	0.06	86.36	83.09	0.07	0.04
Iowa	B10	0.10	0.06	54.17	49.44	0.01	-0.00
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.06	65.22	62.65	0.01	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.06	65.22	63.74	0.01	0.02
Baylor	B12	0.00	0.06	90.91	83.85	0.00	0.04
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.06	69.57	65.47	0.02	0.02
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.06	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.01
Kansas	B12	0.09	0.06	78.26	78.39	0.05	0.03
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.06	59.09	54.70	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.06	45.45	40.70	-0.00	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.09	0.06	60.87	61.37	0.02	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.06	31.82	25.98	-0.02	-0.03
Maryland	ACC	0.06	0.03	59.09	50.82	0.01	0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.03	38.10	42.78	-0.01	-0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.03	19.05	22.37	-0.03	-0.02
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.03	34.78	38.77	-0.02	-0.01
High Point	BSth	0.05	0.03	31.82	32.75	-0.02	-0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.05	0.03	42.86	43.45	-0.01	-0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.03	33.33	37.25	-0.02	-0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.05	0.03	42.86	45.80	-0.01	-0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.00	0.03	52.38	57.86	0.00	0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.03	81.82	76.80	0.03	0.02
Wyoming	MWC	0.05	0.03	76.19	70.73	0.03	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.03	69.57	65.15	0.02	0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.03	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Dayton	A10	0.00	0.03	60.87	60.96	0.00	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.00	0.03	59.09	56.35	0.00	0.00
Georgia Southern	SC	0.05	0.03	40.00	41.30	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.03	39.13	42.12	-0.01	-0.00
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.00	0.03	35.00	35.31	-0.00	-0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	34.78	38.42	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.03	19.05	21.29	-0.03	-0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.03	78.26	72.34	0.03	0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	100.00	94.55	0.05	0.03
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.03	28.57	26.30	-0.02	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	47.62	47.18	-0.00	-0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.00	0.03	77.27	77.67	0.00	0.02
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.05	0.03	4.35	9.66	-0.04	-0.02
Texas St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	22.22	27.62	-0.03	-0.01
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.03	65.22	63.74	0.02	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.03	50.00	51.53	0.00	0.00
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.03	43.48	44.25	-0.01	-0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.03	47.62	48.82	-0.00	-0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.03	72.73	71.71	0.02	0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.05	0.03	81.82	81.49	0.03	0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.03	71.43	69.05	0.02	0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.03	30.00	34.15	-0.02	-0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.05	0.03	34.78	35.20	-0.02	-0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.03	86.96	83.16	0.04	0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.03	61.90	55.14	0.01	0.00
San Diego St.	MWC	0.05	0.03	85.71	78.05	0.03	0.02
Southern Utah	Sum	0.05	0.03	45.45	44.30	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.05	0.03	76.19	75.94	0.02	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.03	31.82	42.13	-0.02	-0.00
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.03	4.00	5.26	-0.04	-0.03
UC Davis	BW	0.05	0.03	0.00	5.37	-0.05	-0.03
Utah St.	WAC	0.05	0.03	50.00	52.93	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.03	56.52	57.72	0.01	0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.03	28.57	34.20	-0.02	-0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.03	47.83	49.03	-0.00	-0.00
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.03	52.17	50.09	0.00	0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.03	95.83	92.57	0.04	0.02
Lipscomb	ASun	0.05	0.03	43.48	43.82	-0.01	-0.00
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.03	79.17	75.98	0.03	0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.03	50.00	58.16	0.00	0.00
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.05	0.03	30.00	31.54	-0.02	-0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.03	62.50	61.50	0.01	0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.03	35.00	40.78	-0.01	-0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.00	0.03	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.00
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.03	54.55	48.60	0.00	-0.00
UCLA	P12	0.00	0.03	54.55	56.79	0.00	0.00
West Virginia	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	65.17	0.01	0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.05	0.03	34.78	37.24	-0.01	-0.01