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Through games of Feb 8, 2016.


Lehigh

Conference:Pat
Expected RPI:212.2
Current RPI:226
Expected SOS:163
Current SOS:162
Current Record:8-14
Expected Record:11-17
Current Conf Record:7-5
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-6
Current OOC Record:1-9
Expected OOC Record:1-9
Expected OOC RPI:257
Expected OOC SOS:22



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-14163.21.09%
13-15179.59.06%
12-16196.426.41%
11-17214.236.21%
10-18233.621.54%
9-19252.45.29%
8-20269.90.39%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Lehigh.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Syracuse (53.2)ACCA57-47L0%0.0
11-16Canisius (216.1)MAACA98-89L0%0.0
11-19Yale (55.5)IvyH67-79L0%0.0
11-22Columbia (125.2)IvyA88-61L0%0.0
11-25Virginia (6.3)ACCA80-54L0%0.0
11-28Purdue (17.8)B10A77-55L0%0.0
12-2St. Francis PA (238.9)NECA84-73L0%0.0
12-17Robert Morris (298.5)NECA69-67L0%0.0
12-19Mount St. Mary's (232.5)NECH76-73W100%0.0
12-22Stony Brook (45.5)AEH62-75L0%0.0
12-30Army (215.2)PatH82-88L0%0.0
1-2Boston University (192.6)PatH81-73W100%0.0
1-6Loyola MD (230.6)PatA51-50L0%0.0
1-9American (260.3)PatA50-65W100%0.0
1-11Bucknell (167.2)PatH76-82L0%0.0
1-16Holy Cross (290.0)PatA66-87W100%0.0
1-20Navy (185.0)PatH64-69L0%0.0
1-27Colgate (228.4)PatH79-70W100%0.0
1-31Boston University (192.6)PatA75-73L0%0.0
2-3Loyola MD (230.6)PatH71-66W100%0.0
2-6American (260.3)PatH72-49W100%0.0
2-8Lafayette (318.9)PatA72-87W100%0.0
2-10Bucknell (167.2)PatA0-024%-7.5
2-15Holy Cross (290.0)PatH0-083%10.4
2-17Navy (185.0)PatA0-036%-4.0
2-21Lafayette (318.9)PatH0-087%12.0
2-24Colgate (228.4)PatA0-045%-1.2
2-27Army (215.2)PatA0-039%-3.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Lehigh's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Lehigh's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Lehigh.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
LehighPat26.3826.4136.7341.62-7.00-4.43
AmericanPat5.284.6533.3334.27-1.76-1.46
BucknellPat3.154.6452.3855.890.150.55
Loyola MDPat5.234.6233.3336.22-1.74-1.27
Boston UniversityPat5.184.5954.5555.970.470.55
ColgatePat3.104.5845.4546.15-0.28-0.35
NavyPat3.014.5660.8760.980.651.00
ArmyPat3.064.5652.1752.650.130.24
Holy CrossPat2.964.5640.9140.53-0.54-0.86
LafayettePat3.054.5622.7324.20-1.66-2.35
Mount St. Mary'sNEC2.662.0941.6747.02-0.44-0.12
Robert MorrisNEC2.522.0025.0028.44-1.26-0.86
ColumbiaIvy2.481.9865.0063.980.740.55
St. Francis PANEC2.461.9647.6247.58-0.12-0.09
Stony BrookAE2.521.9480.9581.961.561.24
SyracuseACC2.371.8865.2261.330.720.43
YaleIvy2.331.8572.2273.711.030.88
CanisiusMAAC2.371.8541.6743.45-0.39-0.24
VirginiaACC2.321.8181.8277.311.480.99
PurdueB102.271.7978.2675.731.280.92
Sacred HeartNEC0.300.3434.7837.06-0.09-0.09
AlbanyAE0.360.3276.0076.300.190.17
New HampshireAE0.340.3157.1453.980.050.02
BinghamtonAE0.390.3120.8324.10-0.23-0.16
CornellIvy0.360.3142.1140.18-0.06-0.06
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.290.3050.0051.900.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.210.2972.2274.700.090.14
UMBCAE0.290.2824.0026.33-0.15-0.13
PennIvy0.200.2838.8937.62-0.04-0.07
BryantNEC0.350.2725.0026.39-0.17-0.13
NJITASun0.360.2554.1755.240.030.03
HarvardIvy0.200.2535.0038.49-0.06-0.06
FairfieldMAAC0.310.2554.1754.120.030.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.290.2447.8348.88-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.190.2437.5043.36-0.05-0.03
WagnerNEC0.290.2463.6465.030.080.07
Central ConnecticutNEC0.300.2113.0413.55-0.22-0.15
BrownIvy0.220.1931.5831.08-0.08-0.07
MaineAE0.150.1933.3333.12-0.05-0.06
SienaMAAC0.200.1864.0064.140.050.05
MaristMAAC0.140.1822.7324.79-0.08-0.09
QuinnipiacMAAC0.240.1836.3636.08-0.06-0.05
HartfordAE0.210.1625.0026.76-0.11-0.07
DartmouthIvy0.100.1631.5831.76-0.04-0.06
George WashingtonA100.150.1578.2674.430.080.07
ManhattanMAAC0.200.1542.8642.01-0.03-0.02
VermontAE0.160.1352.0054.870.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.200.1334.7835.64-0.06-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.200.1229.1733.74-0.09-0.04
Notre DameACC0.200.1270.8367.730.080.04
KansasB120.150.1281.8277.600.090.07
Rhode IslandA100.150.1256.5256.630.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.150.1252.1751.630.010.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.1250.0049.090.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.150.1243.4840.57-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.140.1250.0046.710.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.150.1266.6763.440.050.03
MonmouthMAAC0.140.1279.1780.720.080.07
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.090.1240.9143.34-0.02-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.190.1271.4368.950.080.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.190.1230.4332.36-0.07-0.04
USC UpstateASun0.090.1222.7323.24-0.05-0.06
MarylandB100.140.1287.5083.700.110.08
PittsburghACC0.140.1276.1968.210.080.04
USCP120.110.0978.2673.050.060.04
George MasonA100.100.0934.7834.14-0.03-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.150.0945.8346.64-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.110.0975.0071.700.050.04
Air ForceMWC0.090.0945.4538.46-0.01-0.02
ClemsonACC0.100.0958.3358.410.020.01
FloridaSEC0.090.0965.2266.070.030.03
FurmanSC0.090.0954.1754.070.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.050.0979.1776.080.030.05
Miami FLACC0.100.0981.8276.750.060.05
Virginia TechACC0.100.0954.1749.230.01-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.100.0930.4326.54-0.04-0.04
Florida St.ACC0.050.0969.5764.850.020.03
North CarolinaACC0.050.0982.6178.660.030.05
Ohio St.B100.140.0958.3354.120.020.01
WisconsinB100.090.0960.8755.840.020.01
FordhamA100.050.0655.0052.260.000.00
TCUB120.050.0645.8339.31-0.00-0.01
HofstraCAA0.100.0665.2264.210.030.02
IllinoisB100.110.0645.8344.12-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.100.0656.5260.010.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0624.0025.69-0.02-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0645.4547.56-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.100.0659.0961.320.020.01
La SalleA100.050.0620.0020.45-0.03-0.04
LSUSEC0.100.0665.2260.250.030.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0647.8346.89-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.100.0666.6762.630.030.02
TowsonCAA0.100.0665.2259.750.030.01
VCUA100.100.0673.9173.910.050.03
DuquesneA100.100.0663.6456.440.030.01
Kent St.MAC0.100.0663.6459.460.030.01
HowardMEAC0.100.0636.3638.93-0.03-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0663.6460.930.010.01
IPFWSum0.050.0670.8368.570.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0650.0049.850.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.090.0673.9171.560.050.03
MassachusettsA100.090.0640.9139.35-0.02-0.01
OregonP120.050.0682.6179.220.030.03
South FloridaAmer0.090.0620.0019.67-0.06-0.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0627.2731.06-0.02-0.02
VMISC0.050.0615.0016.70-0.03-0.04
OaklandHorz0.090.0668.0067.980.030.02
ElonCAA0.090.0652.1750.420.000.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0660.8760.760.010.01
IowaB100.090.0682.6180.590.060.04
MichiganB100.050.0669.5766.240.020.02
NebraskaB100.050.0654.1751.850.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0624.0024.50-0.02-0.03
RiderMAAC0.090.0640.0042.12-0.02-0.01
SMUAmer0.060.0390.9186.160.050.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0345.4546.27-0.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.050.0321.7423.33-0.03-0.02
Kansas St.B120.050.0360.8758.370.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0322.7324.96-0.03-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0382.6178.890.040.02
WoffordSC0.050.0343.4846.23-0.01-0.00
BradleyMVC0.050.0312.5012.85-0.04-0.02
CaliforniaP120.050.0365.2262.840.020.01
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0345.4551.34-0.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0319.0525.89-0.03-0.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0386.9686.360.040.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0382.6179.560.030.02
William & MaryCAA0.050.0371.4369.860.020.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0359.0958.870.010.01
ButlerBE0.050.0369.5767.170.020.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0334.7840.93-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0370.8370.840.020.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0373.9172.490.020.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0356.0052.770.010.00
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0361.9056.690.010.00
GonzagaWCC0.050.0378.2676.800.030.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0352.9452.160.000.00
IndianaB100.000.0379.1774.020.000.01
IUPUISum0.050.0340.0039.79-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0370.8369.500.020.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0342.8646.36-0.01-0.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0383.3383.030.000.02
MinnesotaB100.050.0326.0927.81-0.02-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0320.0022.32-0.03-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.050.0340.9143.71-0.01-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.050.0360.8763.000.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0365.2268.620.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0318.1821.06-0.03-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0329.1733.14-0.02-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0356.5262.790.010.01
RutgersB100.050.0321.7420.35-0.03-0.02
St. John'sBE0.050.0325.0023.34-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0368.1866.690.020.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0378.2678.050.030.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0345.4554.11-0.000.00
WashingtonP120.050.0365.2261.090.010.01