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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Lehigh

Conference:Pat
Expected RPI:83.7
Current RPI:104
Expected SOS:174
Current SOS:54
Current Record:2-4
Expected Record:19-9
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:14-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-2
Current OOC Record:2-4
Expected OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC RPI:87
Expected OOC SOS:94



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-430.10.19%
23-535.01.54%
22-644.25.08%
21-753.111.80%
20-864.517.93%
19-977.419.88%
18-1091.618.06%
17-11107.113.39%
16-12124.86.88%
15-13143.73.10%
14-14164.21.58%
13-15184.20.45%
12-16211.70.09%
11-17238.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Lehigh.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Xavier (11.9)BEA84-81L0%0.0
11-17Yale (103.3)IvyA89-81L0%0.0
11-20Princeton (95.0)IvyH76-67W100%0.0
11-25Mississippi St. (171.1)SECA73-87W100%0.0
11-27Arkansas St. (68.6)SBA97-89L0%0.0
11-30La Salle (107.7)A10A89-81L0%0.0
12-3Robert Morris (246.0)NECH0-089%14.5
12-6Stony Brook (298.6)AEA0-081%10.3
12-10Mount St. Mary's (168.7)NECA0-065%4.6
12-12St. Francis PA (251.0)NECH0-090%15.1
12-30Army (208.3)PatA0-066%5.0
1-2Boston University (172.4)PatA0-058%2.5
1-5Loyola MD (218.3)PatH0-087%13.5
1-8American (262.3)PatH0-088%14.1
1-11Bucknell (97.9)PatA0-047%-0.8
1-14Holy Cross (183.0)PatH0-083%11.5
1-18Navy (221.2)PatA0-068%5.7
1-21Lafayette (279.9)PatH0-092%16.7
1-25Colgate (231.7)PatA0-071%6.7
1-30Boston University (172.4)PatH0-077%8.7
2-1Loyola MD (218.3)PatA0-073%7.3
2-4American (262.3)PatA0-075%8.0
2-8Bucknell (97.9)PatH0-067%5.3
2-12Holy Cross (183.0)PatA0-067%5.3
2-15Navy (221.2)PatH0-084%11.9
2-19Lafayette (279.9)PatA0-081%10.5
2-22Colgate (231.7)PatH0-086%12.9
2-25Army (208.3)PatH0-082%11.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Lehigh's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Lehigh's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Lehigh.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
LehighPat29.3626.4145.4572.23-2.6711.74
BucknellPat0.004.6875.0069.380.001.81
Loyola MDPat0.004.6033.3342.06-0.00-0.73
AmericanPat0.004.5816.6736.91-0.00-1.20
LafayettePat1.044.5833.3333.28-0.35-1.53
ArmyPat0.604.5833.3347.05-0.20-0.27
Holy CrossPat0.004.5542.8649.26-0.00-0.07
ColgatePat0.004.5520.0042.73-0.00-0.66
Boston UniversityPat0.004.5550.0055.090.000.46
NavyPat0.004.5528.5745.08-0.00-0.45
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.002.0312.5049.44-0.00-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.001.9940.0045.10-0.00-0.20
PrincetonIvy8.331.9833.3366.51-2.780.65
Robert MorrisNEC0.001.9625.0040.21-0.00-0.38
Stony BrookAE0.001.8816.6734.34-0.00-0.59
YaleIvy8.331.8520.0062.71-5.000.47
Arkansas St.SB8.331.8583.3367.305.560.64
La SalleA108.331.8450.0050.060.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC8.331.7983.3344.515.56-0.20
XavierBE8.331.79100.0073.968.330.86
ColumbiaIvy0.000.3542.8642.47-0.00-0.05
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.3342.8638.05-0.00-0.08
PennIvy0.000.3240.0057.97-0.000.05
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.3083.3357.990.000.05
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.3016.6729.36-0.00-0.13
BinghamtonAE0.000.2842.8640.94-0.00-0.05
BryantNEC0.690.2728.5750.20-0.300.00
CornellIvy0.000.2628.5730.63-0.00-0.10
New HampshireAE0.000.2450.0057.480.000.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.2420.0034.22-0.00-0.08
WagnerNEC0.000.2433.3353.85-0.000.02
DuquesneA100.000.2137.5034.65-0.00-0.07
VillanovaBE0.000.21100.0083.120.000.14
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.2140.0037.65-0.00-0.05
AlbanyAE0.000.2150.0060.380.000.04
HarvardIvy0.000.190.0043.04-0.00-0.03
UMass LowellAE0.000.1925.0040.81-0.00-0.03
NJITASun0.000.1942.8650.32-0.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.1883.3362.080.000.04
MaineAE0.000.1816.6725.61-0.00-0.09
SyracuseACC0.000.1866.6770.140.000.07
BrownIvy0.000.1750.0042.420.00-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1650.0046.780.00-0.01
HartfordAE0.000.1612.5022.55-0.00-0.09
NortheasternCAA0.000.1557.1448.240.00-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.1571.4371.570.000.07
UMBCAE0.000.1580.0055.340.000.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.140.0023.47-0.00-0.07
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.1360.0052.760.000.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.1266.6770.740.000.05
TowsonCAA0.000.1250.0054.490.000.01
Notre DameACC0.000.12100.0075.010.000.06
Texas A&MSEC0.000.1266.6766.100.000.04
CreightonBE0.000.12100.0076.650.000.06
North Dakota St.Sum1.190.1250.0061.810.000.03
MassachusettsA100.000.1283.3358.080.000.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.1271.4370.330.000.05
GeorgetownBE0.600.1250.0047.560.00-0.01
RichmondA100.000.1257.1448.600.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.12100.0080.780.000.07
ButlerBE0.000.12100.0075.690.000.06
VermontAE0.690.1062.5071.630.170.04
DrexelCAA0.830.0942.8636.82-0.12-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.090.0034.18-0.00-0.03
MarylandB100.000.0985.7156.490.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0914.2929.15-0.00-0.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0942.8637.60-0.00-0.02
MarquetteBE0.000.0971.4363.090.000.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.0966.6756.020.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.600.090.0038.35-0.60-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0957.1448.860.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.000.0980.0035.960.00-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.0971.4352.370.000.00
DelawareCAA0.830.0740.0040.65-0.17-0.01
TempleAmer0.830.0771.4363.570.360.02
VCUA101.040.0785.7178.150.740.04
VirginiaACC0.690.06100.0082.550.690.04
Air ForceMWC0.000.0650.0042.710.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0683.3369.840.000.02
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0633.3341.52-0.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0662.5056.500.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0633.3338.76-0.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.000.0620.0049.38-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.000.0650.0051.260.000.00
HowardMEAC0.000.060.0038.26-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.060.0034.23-0.00-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0671.4350.570.000.00
Ohio St.B100.000.0685.7172.660.000.03
OregonP120.000.0671.4366.730.000.02
Saint LouisA100.000.0633.3326.75-0.00-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0666.6758.420.000.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.060.0022.69-0.00-0.03
FordhamA100.000.0657.1443.680.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0657.1442.940.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0620.0036.00-0.00-0.02
CampbellBSth0.000.0625.0033.54-0.00-0.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0628.5739.44-0.00-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0660.0067.410.000.02
Little RockSB0.000.0660.0057.900.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0666.6761.340.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0620.0032.60-0.00-0.02
LSUSEC0.000.0671.4349.770.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.000.0671.4346.010.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.000.0662.5043.960.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.0683.3361.150.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0625.0034.47-0.00-0.02
The CitadelSC0.000.0640.0027.05-0.00-0.03
TroySB0.000.0633.3332.23-0.00-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.000.0633.3338.20-0.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0683.3362.840.000.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0685.7165.670.000.02
MissouriSEC0.600.0650.0045.920.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0657.1464.940.000.02
BuffaloMAC0.600.0640.0050.91-0.120.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0633.3338.19-0.00-0.01
MaristMAAC0.000.0642.8635.68-0.00-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0616.6740.71-0.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC1.190.0640.0057.49-0.240.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.0671.4356.280.000.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0616.6734.31-0.00-0.02
Seton HallBE0.000.0671.4354.520.000.01
SienaMAAC0.000.0628.5750.51-0.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0027.77-0.00-0.03
St. John'sBE0.000.0628.5733.92-0.00-0.02
BYUWCC1.040.0371.4368.660.450.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0333.3335.92-0.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0383.3363.610.000.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0350.0050.940.000.00
LibertyBSth0.000.0340.0050.71-0.000.00
PittsburghACC0.690.0385.7155.550.500.00
WashingtonP120.690.0357.1452.630.100.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0325.0024.66-0.00-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0350.0027.250.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0383.3368.880.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0366.6772.440.000.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0350.0071.330.000.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0357.1444.160.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0357.1440.550.00-0.01
MercerSC0.000.0350.0053.050.000.00
RutgersB100.000.0383.3344.770.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.830.0357.1467.020.120.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0383.3355.200.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.600.0350.0058.980.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.600.0366.6769.810.200.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.600.0316.6730.27-0.40-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0383.3380.700.000.02
FloridaSEC0.000.0387.5075.320.000.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0366.6754.380.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0350.0045.410.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0086.250.000.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0320.0041.93-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.600.030.0034.01-0.60-0.01
Oregon St.P120.600.0328.5723.76-0.26-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.600.0357.1440.590.09-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0333.3323.33-0.00-0.02
TCUB120.000.03100.0059.480.000.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0375.0054.320.000.00
Texas St.SB0.000.0350.0043.310.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.600.0383.3374.620.400.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0371.4356.050.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.600.0325.0043.26-0.30-0.00
BaylorB120.000.03100.0074.460.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0385.7180.960.000.02
ClemsonACC0.600.0366.6753.460.200.00
ColoradoP120.000.0371.4359.850.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0018.22-0.00-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0366.6751.460.000.00
Iowa St.B120.000.0371.4368.970.000.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0385.7155.890.000.00
MichiganB100.000.0371.4366.530.000.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0383.3378.430.000.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0350.0046.670.00-0.00
UtahP120.000.0375.0061.040.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0383.3380.550.000.02