live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Lehigh

Conference:Pat
Expected RPI:236.0
Current RPI:236
Expected SOS:233
Current SOS:233
Current Record:14-18
Expected Record:14-18
Current Conf Record:7-12
Expected Conf Record:7-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-6
Current OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:160
Expected OOC SOS:257



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-18236.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Lehigh.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Minnesota (50.0)B10A81-62L0%0.0
11-12Rider (198.0)MAACH92-78W100%0.0
11-15Fordham (226.0)A10A80-72L0%0.0
11-17Houston (143.0)AmerA80-66L0%0.0
11-20Pittsburgh (39.0)ACCA77-58L0%0.0
11-25Texas Southern (239.0)SWACN67-63W100%0.0
11-26South Dakota St. (138.0)SumA74-61L0%0.0
12-1Sacred Heart (338.0)NECH76-64W100%0.0
12-4St. Francis PA (298.0)NECA50-57W100%0.0
12-7UMBC (327.0)AEH70-68W100%0.0
12-9LIU Brooklyn (297.0)NECH76-69W100%0.0
12-21Quinnipiac (105.0)MAACH69-58W100%0.0
12-30Bryant (177.0)NECA70-68L0%0.0
1-2Colgate (256.0)PatA81-88W100%0.0
1-5Boston University (84.0)PatH66-67L0%0.0
1-8Army (235.0)PatH76-79L0%0.0
1-11Loyola MD (274.0)PatA72-68L0%0.0
1-15American (118.0)PatH63-65L0%0.0
1-18Holy Cross (127.0)PatA61-42L0%0.0
1-22Navy (321.0)PatA66-68W100%0.0
1-25Lafayette (258.0)PatH71-68W100%0.0
1-29Bucknell (167.0)PatH66-63W100%0.0
2-1Boston University (84.0)PatA80-82W100%0.0
2-5Army (235.0)PatA70-51L0%0.0
2-8Loyola MD (274.0)PatH66-52W100%0.0
2-12American (118.0)PatA64-44L0%0.0
2-15Holy Cross (127.0)PatH67-72L0%0.0
2-19Navy (321.0)PatH72-65W100%0.0
2-23Lafayette (258.0)PatA77-71L0%0.0
2-26Bucknell (167.0)PatA65-61L0%0.0
3-1Colgate (256.0)PatH57-74L0%0.0
3-5Holy Cross (127.0)PatA54-48L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Lehigh's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Lehigh's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Lehigh.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
LehighPat26.3726.3744.7844.78-2.76-2.76
Holy CrossPat5.585.5855.1755.170.580.58
AmericanPat4.224.2260.0060.000.840.84
Boston UniversityPat4.214.2171.8871.881.841.84
ColgatePat4.144.1439.2939.29-0.89-0.89
NavyPat4.144.1429.6329.63-1.69-1.69
LafayettePat4.114.1132.1432.14-1.47-1.47
ArmyPat4.094.0942.8642.86-0.58-0.58
BucknellPat4.074.0753.5753.570.290.29
Loyola MDPat4.064.0633.3333.33-1.35-1.35
St. Francis PANEC1.921.9233.3333.33-0.64-0.64
Sacred HeartNEC1.821.8216.6716.67-1.21-1.21
UMBCAE1.771.7728.5728.57-0.76-0.76
BryantNEC1.771.7753.3353.330.120.12
LIU BrooklynNEC1.731.7332.1432.14-0.62-0.62
FordhamA101.661.6630.0030.00-0.67-0.67
QuinnipiacMAAC1.661.6666.6766.670.550.55
RiderMAAC1.611.6146.6746.67-0.11-0.11
MinnesotaB101.591.5958.0658.060.260.26
South Dakota St.Sum1.591.5955.5655.560.180.18
HoustonAmer1.561.5650.0050.000.000.00
PittsburghACC1.561.5672.7372.730.710.71
Texas SouthernSWAC1.561.5658.0658.060.250.25
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.390.3950.0050.000.000.00
AlbanyAE0.330.3356.2556.250.040.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.310.3154.8454.840.030.03
FairfieldMAAC0.310.3121.8821.88-0.17-0.17
Robert MorrisNEC0.280.2861.7661.760.070.07
WagnerNEC0.260.2660.0060.000.050.05
HartfordAE0.250.2551.5251.520.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.240.2423.3323.33-0.13-0.13
Central ConnecticutNEC0.230.2334.4834.48-0.07-0.07
NJITind0.230.2336.0036.00-0.06-0.06
ColumbiaIvy0.210.2160.0060.000.040.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.180.1831.0331.03-0.07-0.07
New HampshireAE0.180.1817.2417.24-0.12-0.12
CanisiusMAAC0.170.1765.6265.620.050.05
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.170.1745.1645.16-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.170.1719.3519.35-0.11-0.11
HarvardIvy0.170.1786.2186.210.120.12
MaristMAAC0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.150.1578.1278.120.090.09
MonmouthMAAC0.150.1534.3834.38-0.05-0.05
StanfordP120.150.1563.6463.640.040.04
Penn St.B100.150.1546.8846.88-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.150.1584.3884.380.100.10
ConnecticutAmer0.150.1576.4776.470.080.08
CornellIvy0.130.133.703.70-0.12-0.12
MaineAE0.130.1317.8617.86-0.08-0.08
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.130.1317.8617.86-0.08-0.08
IonaMAAC0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
NiagaraMAAC0.130.1321.2121.21-0.07-0.07
SienaMAAC0.130.1346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.130.1372.7372.730.060.06
George MasonA100.120.1235.4835.48-0.04-0.04
George WashingtonA100.120.1275.0075.000.060.06
Ohio St.B100.120.1273.5373.530.060.06
MichiganB100.120.1275.7675.760.060.06
North CarolinaACC0.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
Stony BrookAE0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.110.1178.5778.570.060.06
The CitadelSC0.110.1113.7913.79-0.08-0.08
VermontAE0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
PrincetonIvy0.100.1070.3770.370.040.04
YaleIvy0.100.1051.8551.850.000.00
Miami FLACC0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
BelmontOVC0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
DuquesneA100.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
VirginiaACC0.100.1082.3582.350.060.06
RutgersAmer0.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
BrownIvy0.100.1051.8551.850.000.00
Texas TechB120.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Wake ForestACC0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
MarylandACC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
IPFWSum0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
DenverSum0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
TowsonCAA0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0848.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
DelawareCAA0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
PennIvy0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
St. John'sBE0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
VillanovaBE0.080.0887.5087.500.060.06
DaytonA100.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
RichmondA100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
PurdueB100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0757.1457.140.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.0714.8114.81-0.05-0.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0730.3030.30-0.03-0.03
WisconsinB100.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0732.1432.14-0.03-0.03
LouisvilleAmer0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
SMUAmer0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0781.8281.820.040.04
IUPUISum0.060.0610.3410.34-0.04-0.04
South DakotaSum0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
MontanaBSky0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0514.8114.81-0.04-0.04
Kent St.MAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TulaneCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
IndianaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
La SalleA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
RiceCUSA0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
NorthwesternB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0534.3834.38-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
HamptonMEAC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
RadfordBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
UNLVMWC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
FIUCUSA0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Michigan St.B100.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
NebraskaB100.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
TulsaCUSA0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
WoffordSC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00