Lehigh

Conference:	Pat
Expected RPI:	214.0
Current RPI:	214
Expected SOS:	285
Current SOS:	285
Current Record:	15-14
Expected Record:	15-14
Current Conf Record:	11-8
Expected Conf Record:	11-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	13-5
Current OOC Record:	4-6
Expected OOC Record:	4-6
Expected OOC RPI:	229
Expected OOC SOS:	224

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
15-14	214.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Lehigh.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Marist (324.0)	MAAC	A	76-84	W	100%
11-14	Monmouth (199.0)	MAAC	H	72-80	L	0%
11-17	Siena (299.0)	MAAC	H	91-90	W	100%
11-22	USC (34.0)	P12	A	88-63	L	0%
11-25	Pittsburgh (217.0)	ACC	A	80-68	L	0%
11-29	Princeton (226.0)	Ivy	A	76-85	W	100%
12-2	Virginia (1.0)	ACC	A	75-54	L	0%
12-6	Yale (183.0)	Ivy	H	77-86	L	0%
12-9	Mount St. Mary's (225.0)	NEC	H	75-60	W	100%
12-21	St. Francis PA (178.0)	NEC	A	84-70	L	0%
12-29	Lafayette (311.0)	Pat	A	74-79	W	100%
1-2	Navy (200.0)	Pat	A	78-66	L	0%
1-5	Holy Cross (265.0)	Pat	H	83-77	W	100%
1-8	Boston University (212.0)	Pat	A	92-81	L	0%
1-11	Bucknell (80.0)	Pat	A	78-65	L	0%
1-14	American (336.0)	Pat	H	76-66	W	100%
1-17	Colgate (185.0)	Pat	H	72-76	L	0%
1-20	Army (280.0)	Pat	A	93-81	L	0%
1-24	Loyola MD (322.0)	Pat	H	88-91	L	0%
1-27	Navy (200.0)	Pat	H	75-77	L	0%
1-29	Holy Cross (265.0)	Pat	A	67-71	W	100%
2-3	Boston University (212.0)	Pat	H	80-75	W	100%
2-5	Bucknell (80.0)	Pat	H	92-89	W	100%
2-10	American (336.0)	Pat	A	78-80	W	100%
2-14	Colgate (185.0)	Pat	A	78-88	W	100%
2-17	Army (280.0)	Pat	H	84-53	W	100%
2-21	Loyola MD (322.0)	Pat	A	74-80	W	100%
2-24	Lafayette (311.0)	Pat	H	79-64	W	100%
3-1	Boston University (212.0)	Pat	H	82-88	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Lehigh's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Lehigh's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Lehigh.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Lehigh	Pat	26.44	26.44	52.52	52.52	1.33	1.33
Boston University	Pat	6.12	6.12	44.44	44.44	-0.68	-0.68
Bucknell	Pat	4.67	4.67	75.00	75.00	2.34	2.34
Colgate	Pat	4.60	4.60	58.62	58.62	0.79	0.79
Lafayette	Pat	4.55	4.55	32.14	32.14	-1.62	-1.62
Holy Cross	Pat	4.55	4.55	41.38	41.38	-0.78	-0.78
Loyola MD	Pat	4.54	4.54	25.00	25.00	-2.27	-2.27
American	Pat	4.52	4.52	21.43	21.43	-2.58	-2.58
Army	Pat	4.51	4.51	40.74	40.74	-0.84	-0.84
Navy	Pat	4.49	4.49	58.62	58.62	0.77	0.77
Marist	MAAC	1.98	1.98	20.00	20.00	-1.19	-1.19
Monmouth	MAAC	1.94	1.94	33.33	33.33	-0.65	-0.65
Siena	MAAC	1.94	1.94	25.81	25.81	-0.94	-0.94
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	1.93	1.93	55.17	55.17	0.20	0.20
Princeton	Ivy	1.89	1.89	44.44	44.44	-0.21	-0.21
St. Francis PA	NEC	1.84	1.84	55.56	55.56	0.20	0.20
Pittsburgh	ACC	1.83	1.83	22.58	22.58	-1.01	-1.01
Yale	Ivy	1.81	1.81	48.28	48.28	-0.06	-0.06
Virginia	ACC	1.78	1.78	93.75	93.75	1.56	1.56
USC	P12	1.75	1.75	66.67	66.67	0.58	0.58
Columbia	Ivy	0.29	0.29	26.92	26.92	-0.13	-0.13
Penn	Ivy	0.29	0.29	74.19	74.19	0.14	0.14
Albany	AE	0.28	0.28	67.74	67.74	0.10	0.10
Harvard	Ivy	0.26	0.26	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
Miami FL	ACC	0.25	0.25	70.97	70.97	0.11	0.11
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.25	0.25	43.75	43.75	-0.03	-0.03
Fairfield	MAAC	0.25	0.25	51.52	51.52	0.01	0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.24	0.24	37.93	37.93	-0.06	-0.06
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.23	0.23	37.93	37.93	-0.06	-0.06
Cornell	Ivy	0.23	0.23	40.74	40.74	-0.04	-0.04
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.23	0.23	30.00	30.00	-0.09	-0.09
Bryant	NEC	0.23	0.23	9.68	9.68	-0.19	-0.19
Niagara	MAAC	0.23	0.23	59.38	59.38	0.04	0.04
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.22	0.22	36.36	36.36	-0.06	-0.06
Iona	MAAC	0.22	0.22	60.61	60.61	0.05	0.05
Manhattan	MAAC	0.22	0.22	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
New Hampshire	AE	0.20	0.20	27.59	27.59	-0.09	-0.09
Louisville	ACC	0.19	0.19	60.61	60.61	0.04	0.04
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.18	0.18	23.08	23.08	-0.10	-0.10
Wagner	NEC	0.18	0.18	70.00	70.00	0.07	0.07
Robert Morris	NEC	0.17	0.17	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.17	0.17	31.03	31.03	-0.07	-0.07
UMass Lowell	AE	0.17	0.17	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Connecticut	Amer	0.17	0.17	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.17	0.17	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Syracuse	ACC	0.16	0.16	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Brown	Ivy	0.15	0.15	38.46	38.46	-0.03	-0.03
West Virginia	B12	0.14	0.14	70.59	70.59	0.06	0.06
Rider	MAAC	0.14	0.14	70.97	70.97	0.06	0.06
Northeastern	CAA	0.14	0.14	68.75	68.75	0.05	0.05
North Carolina	ACC	0.13	0.13	71.43	71.43	0.06	0.06
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.12	0.12	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.12	0.12	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
UMBC	AE	0.12	0.12	67.74	67.74	0.04	0.04
Drexel	CAA	0.11	0.11	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Hofstra	CAA	0.11	0.11	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
NJIT	ASun	0.11	0.11	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.11	0.11	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Duke	ACC	0.11	0.11	78.79	78.79	0.06	0.06
Florida St.	ACC	0.11	0.11	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Notre Dame	ACC	0.11	0.11	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.11	0.11	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.11	0.11	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Vermont	AE	0.11	0.11	78.79	78.79	0.06	0.06
La Salle	A10	0.11	0.11	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Elon	CAA	0.09	0.09	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Maine	AE	0.09	0.09	13.33	13.33	-0.06	-0.06
Marquette	BE	0.09	0.09	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Memphis	Amer	0.08	0.08	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Towson	CAA	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	15.62	15.62	-0.06	-0.06
Delaware	CAA	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Stony Brook	AE	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.08	0.08	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
VCU	A10	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Oregon	P12	0.08	0.08	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
George Mason	A10	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Kansas St.	B12	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.06	0.06	16.67	16.67	-0.04	-0.04
Northwestern	B10	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Villanova	BE	0.06	0.06	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
VMI	SC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Western Illinois	Sum	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Akron	MAC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.06	0.06	76.67	76.67	0.03	0.03
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Denver	Sum	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Lipscomb	ASun	0.06	0.06	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.06	0.06	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.05	0.05	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
California	P12	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Maryland	B10	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Utah	P12	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Butler	BE	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
BYU	WCC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Cal Poly	BW	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.02	-0.02
George Washington	A10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Hawaii	BW	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Longwood	BSth	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Creighton	BE	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
TCU	B12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	82.76	82.76	0.02	0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
College of Charleston	CAA	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
High Point	BSth	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	32.00	32.00	-0.01	-0.01
Montana	BSky	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Davidson	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.03	0.03	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	83.33	83.33	0.02	0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Oklahoma	B12	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Santa Clara	WCC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
SMU	Amer	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Washington	P12	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01