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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Lehigh

Conference:Pat
Expected RPI:168.0
Current RPI:168
Expected SOS:178
Current SOS:178
Current Record:16-15
Expected Record:16-15
Current Conf Record:15-6
Expected Conf Record:15-6
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-7
Current OOC Record:1-9
Expected OOC Record:1-9
Expected OOC RPI:269
Expected OOC SOS:30



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-15168.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Lehigh.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Syracuse (72.0)ACCA57-47L0%0.0
11-16Canisius (220.0)MAACA98-89L0%0.0
11-19Yale (44.0)IvyH67-79L0%0.0
11-22Columbia (132.0)IvyA88-61L0%0.0
11-25Virginia (3.0)ACCA80-54L0%0.0
11-28Purdue (15.0)B10A77-55L0%0.0
12-2St. Francis PA (266.0)NECA84-73L0%0.0
12-17Robert Morris (291.0)NECA69-67L0%0.0
12-19Mount St. Mary's (245.0)NECH76-73W100%0.0
12-22Stony Brook (59.0)AEH62-75L0%0.0
12-30Army (214.0)PatH82-88L0%0.0
1-2Boston University (196.0)PatH81-73W100%0.0
1-6Loyola MD (255.0)PatA51-50L0%0.0
1-9American (231.0)PatA50-65W100%0.0
1-11Bucknell (183.0)PatH76-82L0%0.0
1-16Holy Cross (248.0)PatA66-87W100%0.0
1-20Navy (216.0)PatH64-69L0%0.0
1-27Colgate (241.0)PatH79-70W100%0.0
1-31Boston University (196.0)PatA75-73L0%0.0
2-3Loyola MD (255.0)PatH71-66W100%0.0
2-6American (231.0)PatH72-49W100%0.0
2-8Lafayette (329.0)PatA72-87W100%0.0
2-10Bucknell (183.0)PatA65-80W100%0.0
2-15Holy Cross (248.0)PatH64-59W100%0.0
2-17Navy (216.0)PatA74-77W100%0.0
2-21Lafayette (329.0)PatH73-61W100%0.0
2-24Colgate (241.0)PatA54-71W100%0.0
2-27Army (214.0)PatA72-82W100%0.0
3-3Navy (216.0)PatH65-63W100%0.0
3-6American (231.0)PatH78-62W100%0.0
3-9Holy Cross (248.0)PatH56-59L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Lehigh's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Lehigh's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Lehigh.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
LehighPat26.5926.5952.4152.411.281.28
Holy CrossPat5.955.9543.3343.33-0.79-0.79
AmericanPat5.915.9142.8642.86-0.84-0.84
NavyPat5.845.8458.6258.621.011.01
BucknellPat4.364.3655.5655.560.480.48
ArmyPat4.354.3558.6258.620.750.75
Loyola MDPat4.344.3428.5728.57-1.86-1.86
Boston UniversityPat4.324.3255.1755.170.450.45
LafayettePat4.294.2921.4321.43-2.45-2.45
ColgatePat4.294.2944.4444.44-0.48-0.48
Mount St. Mary'sNEC1.911.9143.7543.75-0.24-0.24
Robert MorrisNEC1.801.8029.0329.03-0.76-0.76
St. Francis PANEC1.791.7939.2939.29-0.38-0.38
ColumbiaIvy1.781.7864.2964.290.510.51
Stony BrookAE1.771.7779.3179.311.041.04
SyracuseACC1.691.6958.0658.060.270.27
YaleIvy1.671.6776.9276.920.900.90
CanisiusMAAC1.661.6640.6240.62-0.31-0.31
VirginiaACC1.641.6478.1278.120.920.92
PurdueB101.611.6175.7675.760.830.83
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.310.3154.8454.840.030.03
New HampshireAE0.310.3158.6258.620.050.05
Sacred HeartNEC0.310.3140.0040.00-0.06-0.06
AlbanyAE0.290.2974.1974.190.140.14
UMBCAE0.290.2921.8821.88-0.16-0.16
CornellIvy0.270.2733.3333.33-0.09-0.09
PennIvy0.270.2737.0437.04-0.07-0.07
BinghamtonAE0.270.2726.6726.67-0.12-0.12
WagnerNEC0.260.2667.7467.740.090.09
PrincetonIvy0.250.2577.7877.780.140.14
HarvardIvy0.240.2442.8642.86-0.03-0.03
BryantNEC0.240.2423.3323.33-0.13-0.13
St. Francis NYNEC0.230.2345.1645.16-0.02-0.02
NJITASun0.220.2253.3353.330.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.220.2259.3859.380.040.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.210.2151.6151.610.010.01
BrownIvy0.190.1925.9325.93-0.09-0.09
Central ConnecticutNEC0.180.1813.7913.79-0.13-0.13
HartfordAE0.180.1828.1228.12-0.08-0.08
MaineAE0.180.1826.6726.67-0.08-0.08
MaristMAAC0.170.1723.3323.33-0.09-0.09
QuinnipiacMAAC0.170.1730.0030.00-0.07-0.07
SienaMAAC0.160.1663.6463.640.040.04
Rhode IslandA100.150.1553.1253.120.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.150.1525.0025.00-0.08-0.08
DartmouthIvy0.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
VermontAE0.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.130.1329.0329.03-0.06-0.06
ManhattanMAAC0.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.130.1369.7069.700.050.05
Georgia TechACC0.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
KansasB120.130.1387.8887.880.100.10
Youngstown St.Horz0.130.1330.0030.00-0.05-0.05
PittsburghACC0.120.1264.5264.520.040.04
UMass LowellAE0.110.1135.7135.71-0.03-0.03
NorthwesternB100.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Notre DameACC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Penn St.B100.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.100.1073.3373.330.050.05
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.100.1079.4179.410.060.06
FurmanSC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
MarylandB100.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
FloridaSEC0.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.100.1082.3582.350.060.06
Miami FLACC0.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
USCP120.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
George MasonA100.080.0834.3834.38-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
NortheasternCAA0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
LSUSEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
VCUA100.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
IllinoisB100.080.0844.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
IPFWSum0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
VMISC0.080.0822.2222.22-0.04-0.04
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0721.8821.88-0.04-0.04
Florida St.ACC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
ClemsonACC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.070.0774.1974.190.040.04
Virginia TechACC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
IonaMAAC0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0721.8821.88-0.04-0.04
WisconsinB100.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Ohio St.B100.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
MichiganB100.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
FordhamA100.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
TCUB120.060.0636.3636.36-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0564.2964.290.020.02
TowsonCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
DuquesneA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
MassachusettsA100.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.050.0544.1244.12-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
ElonCAA0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
RiderMAAC0.050.0539.3939.39-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Michigan St.B100.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
NebraskaB100.050.0547.0647.06-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
DelawareCAA0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
WoffordSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0322.8622.86-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
BradleyMVC0.020.0212.9012.90-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
CaliforniaP120.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
WashingtonP120.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
West VirginiaB120.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
ButlerBE0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.020.0256.0056.000.000.00
IndianaB100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
IUPUISum0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.020.0262.8662.860.010.01
RutgersB100.020.0219.3519.35-0.01-0.01