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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Lehigh

Conference:Pat
Expected RPI:97.0
Current RPI:97
Expected SOS:177
Current SOS:177
Current Record:19-12
Expected Record:19-12
Current Conf Record:14-7
Expected Conf Record:14-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-4
Current OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC RPI:69
Expected OOC SOS:56



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1297.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Lehigh.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Xavier (37.0)BEA84-81L0%0.0
11-17Yale (128.0)IvyA89-81L0%0.0
11-20Princeton (47.0)IvyH76-67W100%0.0
11-25Mississippi St. (150.0)SECA73-87W100%0.0
11-27Arkansas St. (119.0)SBA97-89L0%0.0
11-30La Salle (133.0)A10A89-81L0%0.0
12-3Robert Morris (237.0)NECH64-58W100%0.0
12-6Stony Brook (176.0)AEA62-57L0%0.0
12-10Mount St. Mary's (151.0)NECA71-90W100%0.0
12-12St. Francis PA (258.0)NECH100-67W100%0.0
12-30Army (266.0)PatA59-66W100%0.0
1-2Boston University (187.0)PatA75-61L0%0.0
1-5Loyola MD (212.0)PatH83-84L0%0.0
1-8American (310.0)PatH79-73W100%0.0
1-11Bucknell (63.0)PatA71-82W100%0.0
1-14Holy Cross (204.0)PatH68-51W100%0.0
1-18Navy (208.0)PatA75-72L0%0.0
1-21Lafayette (321.0)PatH75-68W100%0.0
1-25Colgate (294.0)PatA62-76W100%0.0
1-30Boston University (187.0)PatH59-76L0%0.0
2-1Loyola MD (212.0)PatA62-60L0%0.0
2-4American (310.0)PatA55-70W100%0.0
2-8Bucknell (63.0)PatH79-71W100%0.0
2-12Holy Cross (204.0)PatA61-45L0%0.0
2-15Navy (208.0)PatH74-55W100%0.0
2-19Lafayette (321.0)PatA55-81W100%0.0
2-22Colgate (294.0)PatH87-69W100%0.0
2-25Army (266.0)PatH83-69W100%0.0
3-2Colgate (294.0)PatH77-72W100%0.0
3-5Boston University (187.0)PatA88-91W100%0.0
3-8Bucknell (63.0)PatA81-65L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Lehigh's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Lehigh's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Lehigh.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
LehighPat26.5826.5866.9266.928.998.99
BucknellPat5.995.9980.6580.653.673.67
Boston UniversityPat5.835.8353.5753.570.420.42
ColgatePat5.775.7732.1432.14-2.06-2.06
Loyola MDPat4.394.3942.8642.86-0.63-0.63
ArmyPat4.364.3641.3841.38-0.75-0.75
NavyPat4.334.3348.2848.28-0.15-0.15
LafayettePat4.294.2929.6329.63-1.75-1.75
AmericanPat4.294.2928.5728.57-1.84-1.84
Holy CrossPat4.274.2746.6746.67-0.28-0.28
Mount St. Mary'sNEC1.891.8957.5857.580.290.29
PrincetonIvy1.831.8381.4881.481.151.15
St. Francis PANEC1.811.8150.0050.000.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC1.811.8143.7543.75-0.23-0.23
YaleIvy1.701.7059.2659.260.310.31
Stony BrookAE1.691.6956.6756.670.230.23
La SalleA101.681.6848.2848.28-0.06-0.06
Arkansas St.SB1.661.6660.0060.000.330.33
Mississippi St.SEC1.611.6151.6151.610.050.05
XavierBE1.611.6160.6160.610.340.34
ColumbiaIvy0.320.3238.4638.46-0.07-0.07
Sacred HeartNEC0.310.3140.6240.62-0.06-0.06
LIU BrooklynNEC0.300.3061.2961.290.070.07
PennIvy0.300.3046.4346.43-0.02-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.290.2931.0331.03-0.11-0.11
St. Francis NYNEC0.260.2610.0010.00-0.20-0.20
BryantNEC0.260.2635.4835.48-0.07-0.07
CornellIvy0.250.2525.0025.00-0.12-0.12
AlbanyAE0.240.2460.6160.610.050.05
New HampshireAE0.230.2358.6258.620.040.04
WagnerNEC0.230.2351.7251.720.010.01
DuquesneA100.210.2131.2531.25-0.08-0.08
SyracuseACC0.210.2156.2556.250.030.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.200.2034.4834.48-0.06-0.06
HarvardIvy0.190.1961.5461.540.040.04
NJITASun0.190.1931.0331.03-0.07-0.07
UMass LowellAE0.180.1833.3333.33-0.06-0.06
VillanovaBE0.180.1891.1891.180.150.15
NortheasternCAA0.180.1848.3948.39-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.180.1819.3519.35-0.11-0.11
Central ConnecticutNEC0.180.1820.6920.69-0.10-0.10
FairfieldMAAC0.180.1853.3353.330.010.01
ButlerBE0.140.1474.1974.190.070.07
BrownIvy0.140.1439.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.140.1435.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.130.1359.3859.380.030.03
HartfordAE0.130.1328.1228.12-0.06-0.06
Notre DameACC0.130.1373.5373.530.060.06
MonmouthMAAC0.130.1381.8281.820.080.08
UMBCAE0.130.1357.1457.140.020.02
CreightonBE0.120.1272.7372.730.060.06
RichmondA100.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
DartmouthIvy0.120.1225.9325.93-0.06-0.06
Texas A&MSEC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
TowsonCAA0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
MassachusettsA100.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.100.1072.7372.730.050.05
North Dakota St.Sum0.100.1060.7160.710.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
GeorgetownBE0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1055.8855.880.010.01
DePaulBE0.100.1028.1228.12-0.04-0.04
Wake ForestACC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
DrexelCAA0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
VermontAE0.080.0884.8584.850.060.06
MarylandB100.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
HamptonMEAC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
SienaMAAC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
DelawareCAA0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
VCUA100.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
AkronMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
DavidsonA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
FordhamA100.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
VirginiaACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
FurmanSC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
High PointBSth0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Little RockSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
OregonP120.050.0584.8584.850.040.04
South AlabamaSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Georgia St.SB0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
George MasonA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
MississippiSEC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
St. John'sBE0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
PittsburghACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
MercerSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
HofstraCAA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
RutgersB100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
TCUB120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
AuburnSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
OaklandHorz0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
BaylorB120.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
ClemsonACC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
ColoradoP120.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Iowa St.B120.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
MichiganB100.020.0268.5768.570.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
UtahP120.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
West VirginiaB120.020.0276.4776.470.010.01