live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Dec 20, 2014.


Lehigh

Conference:Pat
Expected RPI:147.2
Current RPI:120
Expected SOS:167
Current SOS:69
Current Record:4-5
Expected Record:15-13
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-3
Current OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC RPI:132
Expected OOC SOS:114



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-659.50.02%
21-758.70.19%
20-872.40.84%
19-985.42.83%
18-10100.57.70%
17-11115.713.30%
16-12131.418.19%
15-13148.419.94%
14-14165.516.83%
13-15183.711.11%
12-16201.95.66%
11-17220.82.46%
10-18239.90.66%
9-19256.00.19%
8-20268.60.07%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Lehigh.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Villanova (14.8)BEN66-77L0%0.0
11-18Canisius (127.0)MAACH51-63L0%0.0
11-21Rider (192.6)MAACA78-74L0%0.0
11-23Columbia (85.5)IvyH44-54L0%0.0
11-26DePaul (197.3)BEA74-86W100%0.0
12-3St. Francis PA (124.8)NECH61-59W100%0.0
12-6LIU Brooklyn (230.2)NECA76-80W100%0.0
12-18Quinnipiac (222.2)MAACA80-65L0%0.0
12-20Arizona St. (125.5)P12A81-84W100%0.0
12-28UMBC (327.9)AEA0-073%7.0
12-31Colgate (186.4)PatH0-064%4.1
1-3Boston University (202.8)PatA0-046%-1.3
1-7Army (144.3)PatA0-031%-5.8
1-10Loyola MD (286.8)PatH0-089%14.2
1-14American (103.1)PatA0-030%-6.2
1-17Holy Cross (148.5)PatH0-066%4.8
1-21Navy (317.2)PatH0-091%15.6
1-24Lafayette (95.9)PatA0-027%-7.2
1-28Bucknell (249.1)PatA0-057%2.2
1-31Boston University (202.8)PatH0-073%7.1
2-4Army (144.3)PatH0-059%2.6
2-7Loyola MD (286.8)PatA0-069%5.8
2-12American (103.1)PatH0-057%2.1
2-14Holy Cross (148.5)PatA0-038%-3.5
2-18Navy (317.2)PatA0-073%7.2
2-22Lafayette (95.9)PatH0-054%1.2
2-25Bucknell (249.1)PatH0-082%10.5
2-28Colgate (186.4)PatA0-036%-4.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Lehigh's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Lehigh's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Lehigh.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
LehighPat27.5626.4248.9856.39-0.563.38
AmericanPat0.624.6463.6463.720.171.27
BucknellPat0.564.6340.0037.10-0.11-1.19
ColgatePat0.254.6320.0042.04-0.15-0.74
Loyola MDPat0.314.6333.3328.65-0.10-1.98
NavyPat0.314.6020.0022.46-0.19-2.53
Boston UniversityPat0.314.5930.0041.77-0.12-0.76
Holy CrossPat0.004.5957.1454.240.000.39
ArmyPat0.004.5677.7869.840.001.81
LafayettePat0.004.5666.6768.290.001.67
ColumbiaIvy5.562.0362.5066.701.390.68
CanisiusMAAC5.561.9750.0060.800.000.43
QuinnipiacMAAC5.561.9737.5048.84-1.39-0.05
St. Francis PANEC5.561.9762.5067.621.390.69
RiderMAAC5.561.9145.4551.69-0.510.06
VillanovaBE5.561.91100.0082.405.561.24
LIU BrooklynNEC5.561.8537.5046.64-1.39-0.12
UMBCAE0.001.8518.1825.23-0.00-0.92
Arizona St.P125.561.8560.0050.111.110.00
DePaulBE5.561.8466.6735.381.85-0.54
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.3155.5660.980.000.07
Stony BrookAE0.930.3133.3355.24-0.310.03
BinghamtonAE0.000.310.0011.24-0.00-0.24
AlbanyAE0.620.3140.0055.01-0.120.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.3133.3341.20-0.00-0.05
MaristMAAC0.000.309.0916.15-0.00-0.21
FairfieldMAAC0.310.3040.0037.64-0.06-0.07
SienaMAAC0.540.3033.3349.54-0.18-0.00
NJITind0.310.2541.6743.68-0.05-0.03
WagnerNEC0.310.2512.5030.56-0.23-0.10
PennIvy0.230.2537.5032.63-0.06-0.09
New HampshireAE0.310.2550.0060.410.000.05
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.310.2436.3648.18-0.08-0.01
HarvardIvy0.000.2285.7172.910.000.10
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.310.2237.5039.65-0.08-0.05
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.2230.0043.15-0.00-0.03
CornellIvy0.310.2255.5648.710.03-0.01
SyracuseACC0.250.2260.0058.120.050.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.560.2138.4644.61-0.13-0.02
BrownIvy0.000.1940.0033.80-0.00-0.06
BryantNEC0.000.1928.5745.89-0.00-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1930.0039.59-0.00-0.04
HartfordAE0.540.1950.0050.620.000.00
MaineAE0.310.1911.1120.80-0.24-0.11
Central ConnecticutNEC0.230.1820.0027.29-0.14-0.08
ButlerBE0.000.1872.7367.960.000.06
IonaMAAC0.230.1860.0069.200.050.07
ManhattanMAAC0.000.1830.0038.01-0.00-0.04
MonmouthMAAC0.000.1850.0058.370.000.03
NiagaraMAAC0.310.1812.5029.51-0.23-0.07
ProvidenceBE0.000.1875.0057.390.000.03
La SalleA100.560.1854.5552.730.050.01
YaleIvy0.310.1666.6761.820.100.04
PrincetonIvy0.230.1633.3341.02-0.08-0.03
St. John'sBE0.310.1588.8965.170.240.05
MarquetteBE0.250.1560.0048.980.05-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.000.1370.0060.920.000.03
UMass LowellAE0.000.1350.0050.490.000.00
VMISC0.000.1333.3338.93-0.00-0.03
VermontAE0.620.1244.4457.69-0.070.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.560.1260.0043.160.11-0.02
CreightonBE0.000.1275.0052.140.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.1270.0059.220.000.02
Oregon St.P120.280.1277.7856.220.150.01
Seton HallBE0.000.1290.0067.380.000.04
XavierBE0.000.1272.7367.590.000.04
TempleAmer0.560.1263.6456.430.150.02
KentuckySEC0.310.10100.0096.290.310.09
DelawareCAA0.250.090.008.56-0.25-0.08
KansasB120.230.0990.0070.680.190.04
USCP120.000.0960.0036.410.00-0.03
TowsonCAA0.000.0960.0047.170.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.230.0966.6767.300.080.03
ColoradoP120.000.0966.6758.000.000.01
StanfordP120.280.0966.6758.320.090.01
IllinoisB100.250.0975.0065.140.130.03
MichiganB100.250.0950.0040.450.00-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.0750.0046.690.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0770.0051.780.000.00
HofstraCAA0.310.0670.0076.180.120.03
Air ForceMWC0.000.0650.0055.890.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0680.0069.770.000.03
DukeACC0.000.06100.0087.090.000.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0654.5559.560.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0690.9170.080.000.03
George WashingtonA100.280.0666.6765.500.090.02
Notre DameACC0.000.0691.6777.120.000.03
Texas TechB120.000.0690.0055.360.000.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0614.2932.16-0.00-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.530.060.0011.59-0.53-0.05
CampbellBSth0.000.0625.0043.93-0.00-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0645.4549.62-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.0663.6455.660.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0672.7367.520.000.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0616.6737.21-0.00-0.02
Ohio St.B100.000.0681.8282.250.000.04
Penn St.B100.000.0691.6755.310.000.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.060.008.60-0.00-0.05
ToledoMAC0.000.0663.6461.520.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0645.4537.60-0.00-0.01
ArizonaP120.000.06100.0082.630.000.04
CaliforniaP120.000.0690.9169.030.000.02
OregonP120.000.0670.0057.440.000.01
UtahP120.000.0680.0080.520.000.04
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0350.0058.070.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.310.0370.0064.680.120.01
DuquesneA100.310.0337.5034.06-0.08-0.01
RutgersB100.310.0354.5532.590.03-0.01
TexasB120.310.0390.9179.980.250.02
AkronMAC0.000.0360.0056.150.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.310.0377.7870.890.170.01
DrakeMVC0.280.0318.1819.46-0.18-0.02
FIUCUSA0.310.0344.4450.41-0.030.00
HowardMEAC0.000.0330.0043.74-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.280.0318.1820.86-0.18-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.280.0360.0061.600.060.01
IowaB100.000.0366.6759.420.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0333.3328.79-0.00-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0320.0025.85-0.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.310.0354.5552.490.030.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.280.0330.0031.48-0.11-0.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0380.0067.830.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.280.0342.8633.27-0.04-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.310.0377.7865.110.170.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0320.0040.84-0.00-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.250.0366.6754.130.080.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.250.0318.1830.76-0.16-0.01
DetroitHorz0.000.0340.0048.02-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.230.0380.0053.260.140.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.250.0325.0023.40-0.13-0.02
MarylandB100.250.0390.9168.230.210.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.230.0316.6735.27-0.15-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.250.0366.6755.670.080.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.230.0344.4436.80-0.03-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.250.0370.0061.320.100.01
UCLAP120.000.0366.6754.480.000.00
UNLVMWC0.250.0366.6749.560.08-0.00
VCUA100.250.0372.7375.740.110.01
WashingtonP120.000.03100.0075.440.000.01
Washington St.P120.000.0340.0028.13-0.00-0.01