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Through games of Feb 6, 2016.


Nebraska

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:148.3
Current RPI:163
Expected SOS:104
Current SOS:124
Current Record:13-11
Expected Record:16-15
Current Conf Record:5-6
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-1
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:216
Expected OOC SOS:290



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-1192.50.11%
19-12105.11.75%
18-13118.79.42%
17-14134.523.45%
16-15149.532.74%
15-16164.023.58%
14-17177.87.90%
13-18192.21.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Nebraska.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Mississippi Valley St. (327.7)SWACH97-51W100%0.0
11-17Villanova (3.7)BEA87-63L0%0.0
11-19Delaware St. (347.9)MEACH75-60W100%0.0
11-22Southeastern Louisiana (332.5)SlndH92-65W100%0.0
11-24Arkansas Pine Bluff (319.7)SWACH67-44W100%0.0
11-27Cincinnati (47.0)AmerN61-65L0%0.0
11-28Tennessee (118.4)SECN71-82W100%0.0
12-1Miami FL (14.2)ACCH72-77L0%0.0
12-5Abilene Christian (327.6)SlndH73-63W100%0.0
12-9Creighton (90.0)BEA83-67L0%0.0
12-13Rhode Island (100.9)A10H70-67W100%0.0
12-20Samford (254.6)SCH58-69L0%0.0
12-22Prairie View A&M (344.0)SWACH81-50W100%0.0
12-30Northwestern (114.5)B10H72-81L0%0.0
1-2Indiana (39.6)B10H69-79L0%0.0
1-5Iowa (7.5)B10A77-66L0%0.0
1-9Rutgers (281.5)B10A56-90W100%0.0
1-12Minnesota (243.2)B10H84-59W100%0.0
1-16Illinois (156.3)B10A67-78W100%0.0
1-20Michigan St. (17.5)B10A71-72W100%0.0
1-23Michigan (47.5)B10H68-81L0%0.0
1-30Purdue (17.2)B10A89-74L0%0.0
2-3Maryland (5.6)B10H65-70L0%0.0
2-6Rutgers (281.5)B10H87-63W100%0.0
2-10Wisconsin (62.7)B10A0-031%-5.5
2-13Penn St. (131.5)B10H0-079%8.8
2-17Indiana (39.6)B10A0-014%-11.8
2-21Ohio St. (95.6)B10H0-062%3.4
2-25Penn St. (131.5)B10A0-058%2.2
3-1Purdue (17.2)B10H0-026%-7.2
3-6Northwestern (114.5)B10A0-037%-3.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Nebraska's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Nebraska's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Nebraska.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
NebraskaB1026.1926.0847.3247.09-1.40-1.52
NorthwesternB102.443.8065.2262.180.740.93
IndianaB102.443.7878.2672.711.381.72
Penn St.B100.403.7850.0047.790.00-0.17
RutgersB104.523.7823.8121.81-2.37-2.13
PurdueB102.453.7578.2675.811.381.94
MichiganB102.542.2768.1865.030.920.68
Michigan St.B102.532.2786.9685.781.871.62
MinnesotaB102.432.2727.2728.78-1.11-0.96
WisconsinB100.442.2760.8755.410.100.25
IowaB102.482.2780.9579.431.541.34
MarylandB102.492.2786.9683.131.841.50
IllinoisB102.392.2550.0046.030.00-0.18
Ohio St.B100.442.2558.3354.710.070.21
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC2.311.8021.7424.39-1.31-0.92
CreightonBE2.311.7760.8758.440.500.30
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC2.221.7717.3920.79-1.45-1.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC2.171.749.5217.70-1.76-1.12
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd2.221.7215.7928.25-1.52-0.75
Abilene ChristianSlnd2.141.6733.3333.04-0.71-0.57
CincinnatiAmer2.181.6769.5769.960.850.66
VillanovaBE2.171.6686.3685.911.581.20
Delaware St.MEAC2.131.6410.0014.01-1.70-1.18
Rhode IslandA102.131.6459.0958.500.390.28
Miami FLACC2.081.6180.0074.651.250.80
SamfordSC2.081.6136.3639.22-0.57-0.35
TennesseeSEC2.081.6150.0048.440.00-0.05
ButlerBE0.270.2369.5767.220.110.08
St. John'sBE0.220.2126.0923.73-0.11-0.11
DePaulBE0.130.2134.7834.45-0.04-0.06
Alcorn St.SWAC0.180.2136.8438.40-0.05-0.05
George WashingtonA100.220.1878.2674.360.130.09
Jackson St.SWAC0.190.1847.6252.67-0.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.190.1865.0066.790.060.06
ProvidenceBE0.270.1875.0070.940.130.08
Grambling St.SWAC0.130.1815.7920.03-0.09-0.11
Texas SouthernSWAC0.220.1845.4554.10-0.020.01
TCUB120.290.1643.4837.22-0.04-0.04
TempleAmer0.180.1663.6459.810.050.03
Notre DameACC0.190.1669.5765.850.070.05
Seton HallBE0.270.1673.9169.840.130.06
GeorgetownBE0.180.1654.1752.340.010.01
XavierBE0.130.1691.3084.380.110.11
MarquetteBE0.090.1662.5056.260.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.180.1538.8945.64-0.04-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.180.1530.0035.78-0.07-0.04
Incarnate WordSlnd0.150.1456.2556.100.020.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.150.1421.0527.81-0.08-0.06
McNeese St.Slnd0.150.1417.6529.25-0.10-0.06
New OrleansSlnd0.040.1427.7834.49-0.02-0.04
VMISC0.050.1315.7917.42-0.03-0.09
HowardMEAC0.180.1338.1040.73-0.04-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.180.1343.4840.60-0.02-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.130.1372.7372.450.060.06
Virginia TechACC0.090.1354.1749.290.01-0.00
FloridaSEC0.180.1365.2266.080.060.04
MissouriSEC0.130.1334.7830.36-0.04-0.05
LamarSlnd0.160.1231.5831.96-0.06-0.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.150.1152.6350.230.010.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.1175.0071.510.030.05
Florida A&MMEAC0.150.1121.0523.59-0.09-0.06
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.1115.0022.35-0.06-0.06
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.090.1130.4335.11-0.03-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.150.1169.5764.880.060.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.140.1159.0959.440.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.130.1128.5731.37-0.06-0.04
ClemsonACC0.190.1160.8760.210.040.02
Georgia TechACC0.140.1154.5552.810.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.140.1156.5262.780.020.03
North CarolinaACC0.090.1182.6178.690.060.06
UMass LowellAE0.130.1131.8232.67-0.05-0.04
VirginiaACC0.090.1182.6178.050.060.06
Boston CollegeACC0.090.1030.4326.49-0.04-0.05
Chicago St.WAC0.130.104.357.73-0.12-0.09
HoustonAmer0.140.1072.7368.020.060.04
La SalleA100.190.1020.0020.47-0.11-0.06
VCUA100.090.1073.9173.910.040.05
Iowa St.B120.180.1073.9170.070.090.04
VanderbiltSEC0.090.1056.5260.000.010.02
DuquesneA100.040.1063.6456.370.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.110.0945.0049.37-0.01-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0914.2917.91-0.04-0.05
Northwestern St.Slnd0.110.0918.7526.45-0.07-0.04
ChattanoogaSC0.090.0886.3685.030.070.06
MercerSC0.090.0872.7370.750.040.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.100.0850.0053.300.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.090.0882.6177.730.060.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.140.0845.4547.57-0.01-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.090.0837.5040.51-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0821.7423.40-0.05-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.0829.1733.14-0.04-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.140.0850.0051.910.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.130.0833.3332.99-0.04-0.03
DaytonA100.050.0886.3682.350.030.05
DukeACC0.090.0873.9170.060.040.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0842.8646.34-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.040.0876.1968.220.020.03
RadfordBSth0.050.0850.0051.290.000.00
SMUAmer0.090.0890.4885.570.070.06
UNLVMWC0.090.0850.0055.190.000.01
Western IllinoisSum0.090.0827.7829.14-0.04-0.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.090.0830.4332.35-0.03-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.040.0836.8441.46-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.090.0840.0039.79-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.050.0873.9171.570.020.03
MassachusettsA100.090.0840.9139.32-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.090.0860.8760.800.020.02
OklahomaB120.090.0886.3682.100.060.05
Saint Joseph'sA100.140.0882.6178.860.090.05
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.110.0670.5975.550.040.03
UC RiversideBW0.100.0645.8341.66-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.100.0621.7423.66-0.06-0.03
OaklandHorz0.100.0668.0067.970.040.02
FurmanSC0.090.0652.1753.310.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0657.1459.450.000.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0633.3331.30-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0628.5731.90-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.090.0640.9145.38-0.02-0.01
TexasB120.090.0569.5762.640.040.01
UtahP120.100.0572.7368.540.050.02
DelawareCAA0.090.0521.7423.31-0.05-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.0520.0026.76-0.06-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.040.0540.9149.26-0.01-0.00
PennIvy0.090.0538.8937.66-0.02-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.100.0578.2678.040.060.03
BryantNEC0.090.0525.0026.38-0.05-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.090.0513.0413.54-0.07-0.04
CharlotteCUSA0.090.0534.7840.92-0.03-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.090.0579.1780.780.050.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0550.0049.100.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.090.0572.2274.710.040.03
UMKCWAC0.090.0528.5732.71-0.04-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.090.0582.6181.140.060.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.090.0525.0033.22-0.05-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.090.0521.7422.74-0.05-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0571.4368.720.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.090.0550.0051.170.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0559.0959.640.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.0540.9140.64-0.02-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.040.0540.0045.51-0.01-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.090.0545.8346.65-0.01-0.00
RiderMAAC0.090.0541.6743.53-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.090.0541.6741.24-0.02-0.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0566.6762.570.020.01
TulaneAmer0.090.0533.3332.33-0.03-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.090.0547.8344.37-0.00-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.090.0568.1866.670.030.02
Texas TechB120.090.0559.0953.130.020.00
ArkansasSEC0.050.0552.1755.930.000.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0540.9136.61-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.000.0554.5558.150.000.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0541.6743.87-0.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.000.0569.5765.300.000.02
ColumbiaIvy0.040.0566.6765.220.010.02
DrexelCAA0.000.0513.6418.14-0.00-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0545.4542.00-0.00-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.040.0540.9143.55-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.040.0552.1753.070.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.090.0522.7327.18-0.05-0.02
FordhamA100.050.0555.0052.290.000.00
IPFWSum0.040.0570.8368.570.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.0563.6459.380.000.01
LehighPat0.040.0533.3337.25-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.040.0534.7837.18-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.040.0550.0052.340.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.040.0560.8762.990.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.040.0534.7837.06-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.040.0517.3920.65-0.03-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0586.3679.150.030.03
South FloridaAmer0.090.0520.8320.12-0.05-0.03
TulsaAmer0.040.0563.6459.960.010.01
VermontAE0.040.0554.1757.520.000.01
Air ForceMWC0.040.0545.4538.48-0.00-0.01
ArmyPat0.090.0552.1753.360.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.090.0528.0030.73-0.04-0.02
HawaiiBW0.090.0584.2181.680.060.03
SeattleWAC0.090.0547.6244.99-0.00-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0352.3850.420.000.00
New HampshireAE0.050.0355.0053.160.010.00
PortlandWCC0.050.0340.0038.50-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0331.8236.12-0.02-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0361.9059.650.010.01
IdahoBSky0.050.0354.5554.930.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0325.0024.37-0.02-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0354.5550.110.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0335.0035.99-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0333.3334.19-0.02-0.01
TroySB0.050.0323.8126.69-0.02-0.01
BaylorB120.050.0372.7366.500.020.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0363.6460.930.010.01
ElonCAA0.050.0352.1750.430.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.040.0354.1750.940.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0357.8961.750.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0339.1337.74-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0356.5256.310.010.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0333.3335.08-0.02-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0377.2776.850.020.01
St. Francis PANEC0.040.0350.0049.440.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.050.0338.8938.51-0.01-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0314.2915.47-0.04-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0372.7376.350.020.01
AkronMAC0.050.0381.8280.040.030.02
AlabamaSEC0.050.0359.0953.030.010.00
AmericanPat0.050.0330.4331.88-0.02-0.01
Arizona St.P120.040.0354.1751.650.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.040.0321.7424.68-0.02-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.040.0363.6462.520.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.040.0352.3847.050.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.050.0331.5831.01-0.02-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0360.0057.950.000.00
George MasonA100.000.0334.7834.21-0.00-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0361.9056.690.010.00
GonzagaWCC0.050.0378.2676.870.030.01
Green BayHorz0.000.0354.5556.010.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.050.0339.1338.32-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.035.007.24-0.04-0.02
IonaMAAC0.050.0359.0959.660.010.01
KansasB120.040.0381.8277.570.030.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.040.0343.4842.63-0.01-0.00
LSUSEC0.000.0365.2260.280.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0365.2259.020.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.0347.3749.97-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0363.6462.150.010.01
North FloridaASun0.050.0365.2267.130.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0363.1658.810.000.00
RichmondA100.050.0354.5554.550.000.00
Saint LouisA100.050.0338.1033.40-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.000.0366.6767.270.000.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0370.0069.100.020.01
StanfordP120.050.0350.0046.610.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0366.6762.630.020.01
UABCUSA0.050.0382.6179.430.030.02
UCFAmer0.000.0352.3845.670.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0365.2266.160.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0366.6770.540.000.01
UTSACUSA0.040.0313.6413.63-0.03-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0381.8283.030.030.02
YaleIvy0.050.0373.6874.620.020.01
BYUWCC0.040.0366.6769.500.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.040.0375.0076.230.020.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.040.0365.2268.610.010.01
OhioMAC0.040.0361.9059.420.010.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.040.0330.4331.18-0.02-0.01