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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Nebraska

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:158.0
Current RPI:158
Expected SOS:54
Current SOS:54
Current Record:13-18
Expected Record:13-18
Current Conf Record:5-14
Expected Conf Record:5-14
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:156
Expected OOC SOS:245



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-18158.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Nebraska.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Northern Kentucky (265.0)ASunH80-61W100%0.0
11-18Central Arkansas (349.0)SlndH82-56W100%0.0
11-22Rhode Island (66.0)A10A66-62L0%0.0
11-25Nebraska Omaha (300.0)SumH80-67W100%0.0
11-28Tennessee Martin (177.0)OVCH75-64W100%0.0
12-1Florida St. (110.0)ACCA65-70W100%0.0
12-7Creighton (151.0)BEH55-65L0%0.0
12-10Incarnate Word (160.0)SlndH73-74L0%0.0
12-13Cincinnati (37.0)AmerH56-55W100%0.0
12-22Hawaii (152.0)BWA66-58L0%0.0
12-23Loyola Marymount (268.0)WCCN50-42W100%0.0
12-25Ohio (231.0)MACN71-58W100%0.0
12-31Indiana (61.0)B10H65-70L0%0.0
1-5Iowa (43.0)B10A70-59L0%0.0
1-8Rutgers (178.0)B10H65-49W100%0.0
1-11Illinois (73.0)B10H53-43W100%0.0
1-15Wisconsin (4.0)B10A70-55L0%0.0
1-20Minnesota (98.0)B10H52-49W100%0.0
1-24Michigan St. (23.0)B10H79-77W100%0.0
1-27Michigan (81.0)B10A58-44L0%0.0
1-31Minnesota (98.0)B10A60-42L0%0.0
2-3Northwestern (125.0)B10H76-60W100%0.0
2-7Penn St. (108.0)B10A56-43L0%0.0
2-10Wisconsin (4.0)B10H55-65L0%0.0
2-15Purdue (55.0)B10A66-54L0%0.0
2-19Maryland (13.0)B10A69-65L0%0.0
2-22Iowa (43.0)B10H46-74L0%0.0
2-26Ohio St. (41.0)B10A81-57L0%0.0
3-4Illinois (73.0)B10A69-57L0%0.0
3-8Maryland (13.0)B10H61-64L0%0.0
3-11Penn St. (108.0)B10N65-68L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Nebraska's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Nebraska's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Nebraska.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
NebraskaB1026.0926.0937.0137.01-6.78-6.78
WisconsinB103.923.9290.6290.623.193.19
Penn St.B103.923.9250.0050.000.000.00
MinnesotaB103.863.8653.3353.330.260.26
IowaB103.843.8463.3363.331.021.02
MarylandB103.813.8180.6580.652.342.34
IllinoisB103.773.7760.0060.000.750.75
Michigan St.B102.352.3569.7069.700.930.93
PurdueB102.332.3362.5062.500.580.58
NorthwesternB102.312.3148.3948.39-0.07-0.07
Ohio St.B102.302.3068.7568.750.860.86
MichiganB102.302.3046.6746.67-0.15-0.15
RutgersB102.282.2832.2632.26-0.81-0.81
IndianaB102.282.2859.3859.380.430.43
Northern KentuckyASun1.711.7140.7440.74-0.32-0.32
Central ArkansasSlnd1.701.707.147.14-1.46-1.46
Tennessee MartinOVC1.641.6459.2659.260.300.30
CreightonBE1.641.6440.6240.62-0.31-0.31
Incarnate WordSlnd1.641.6456.5256.520.210.21
Nebraska OmahaSum1.641.6440.7440.74-0.30-0.30
CincinnatiAmer1.611.6170.9770.970.680.68
Florida St.ACC1.611.6153.1253.120.100.10
HawaiiBW1.611.6159.3859.380.300.30
Loyola MarymountWCC1.611.6124.1424.14-0.83-0.83
OhioMAC1.611.6134.4834.48-0.50-0.50
Rhode IslandA101.611.6168.9768.970.610.61
MarquetteBE0.200.2040.6240.62-0.04-0.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.200.2026.9226.92-0.09-0.09
North FloridaASun0.180.1864.5264.520.050.05
Morehead St.OVC0.160.1646.8846.88-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.150.1563.6463.640.040.04
FordhamA100.150.1530.0030.00-0.06-0.06
GeorgetownBE0.150.1567.7467.740.050.05
Santa ClaraWCC0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
ButlerBE0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
DePaulBE0.130.1337.5037.50-0.03-0.03
VillanovaBE0.130.1394.1294.120.110.11
LouisvilleACC0.120.1275.0075.000.060.06
VirginiaACC0.120.1290.6290.620.100.10
Houston BaptistSlnd0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
LamarSlnd0.120.1242.3142.31-0.02-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.110.1130.7730.77-0.04-0.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.110.1139.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.110.1121.4321.43-0.06-0.06
Kennesaw St.ASun0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
North Dakota St.Sum0.110.1170.0070.000.040.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.110.1163.3363.330.030.03
PepperdineWCC0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
BrownIvy0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.100.1058.8258.820.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
SMUAmer0.100.1081.2581.250.060.06
SyracuseACC0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
HamptonMEAC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.100.1013.3313.33-0.07-0.07
ProvidenceBE0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
UC IrvineBW0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Iowa St.B120.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
Miami FLACC0.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
North CarolinaACC0.100.1068.5768.570.040.04
St. John'sBE0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
ClemsonACC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.100.1075.8675.860.050.05
PittsburghACC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.100.1087.8887.880.070.07
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.100.1086.6786.670.070.07
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.090.0940.7440.74-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.090.0955.5655.560.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.090.0972.4172.410.040.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.0925.8125.81-0.04-0.04
LipscombASun0.090.0939.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0865.5265.520.030.03
TulsaAmer0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
IPFWSum0.080.0848.1548.15-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
South DakotaSum0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.080.0821.4321.43-0.05-0.05
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.080.0828.1228.12-0.03-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.080.0821.4321.43-0.05-0.05
SeattleWAC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0871.4371.430.030.03
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
MassachusettsA100.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0816.6716.67-0.05-0.05
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
OregonP120.080.0872.7372.730.030.03
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Arizona St.P120.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0858.8258.820.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0890.9190.910.060.06
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.070.0725.8125.81-0.04-0.04
SouthernSWAC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.070.0774.1974.190.040.04
DuquesneA100.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
USCP120.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Seton HallBE0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
WagnerNEC0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
XavierBE0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
BucknellPat0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.070.0779.3179.310.040.04
Notre DameACC0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
OaklandHorz0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
UMKCWAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
DenverSum0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
IdahoBSky0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0623.0823.08-0.03-0.03
BelmontOVC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
ToledoMAC0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
DaytonA100.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
GonzagaWCC0.050.0593.9493.940.050.05
Kent St.MAC0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
La SalleA100.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
PacificWCC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Kansas St.B120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
DetroitHorz0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0559.2659.260.010.01
VCUA100.050.0574.2974.290.030.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
KansasB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
AmericanPat0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
BaylorB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
FurmanSC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
HoustonAmer0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
TempleAmer0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
TexasB120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
MississippiSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0518.7518.75-0.03-0.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.03-0.03
High PointBSth0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
VMISC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
WinthropBSth0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0564.7164.710.010.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
DrexelCAA0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
UABCUSA0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
NevadaMWC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TroySB0.030.0329.6329.63-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
DavidsonA100.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
George MasonA100.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
RichmondA100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
ArizonaP120.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
NJITind0.030.0356.0056.000.000.00
ElonCAA0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0347.0647.06-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.020.000.00-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
MaristMAAC0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
NavyPat0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01