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Through games of Dec 20, 2014.


Nebraska

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:101.4
Current RPI:107
Expected SOS:14
Current SOS:95
Current Record:6-3
Expected Record:13-15
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-0
Current OOC Record:6-3
Expected OOC Record:7-3
Expected OOC RPI:98
Expected OOC SOS:95



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-820.00.03%
19-923.10.07%
18-1029.70.27%
17-1137.51.30%
16-1247.83.93%
15-1361.68.29%
14-1476.315.36%
13-1592.719.99%
12-16109.021.99%
11-17126.816.18%
10-18144.08.45%
9-19161.93.18%
8-20180.70.84%
7-21202.60.10%
6-22216.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Nebraska.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Northern Kentucky (216.9)ASunH80-61W100%0.0
11-18Central Arkansas (337.1)SlndH82-56W100%0.0
11-22Rhode Island (59.8)A10A66-62L0%0.0
11-25Nebraska Omaha (200.0)SumH80-67W100%0.0
11-28Tennessee Martin (148.4)OVCH75-64W100%0.0
12-1Florida St. (185.7)ACCA65-70W100%0.0
12-7Creighton (113.1)BEH55-65L0%0.0
12-10Incarnate Word (104.9)SlndH73-74L0%0.0
12-13Cincinnati (67.8)AmerH56-55W100%0.0
12-22Hawaii (216.7)BWA0-057%2.2
12-31Indiana (57.8)B10H0-046%-1.2
1-5Iowa (60.0)B10A0-018%-10.7
1-8Rutgers (172.3)B10H0-083%11.4
1-11Illinois (59.0)B10H0-043%-2.1
1-15Wisconsin (5.6)B10A0-02%-22.9
1-20Minnesota (42.8)B10H0-037%-3.8
1-24Michigan St. (39.9)B10H0-033%-5.2
1-27Michigan (150.1)B10A0-041%-2.6
1-31Minnesota (42.8)B10A0-015%-12.2
2-3Northwestern (157.1)B10H0-073%7.3
2-7Penn St. (97.8)B10A0-042%-2.5
2-10Wisconsin (5.6)B10H0-011%-14.6
2-15Purdue (77.8)B10A0-020%-9.9
2-19Maryland (48.8)B10A0-020%-9.8
2-22Iowa (60.0)B10H0-042%-2.4
2-26Ohio St. (14.5)B10A0-05%-19.5
3-4Illinois (59.0)B10A0-019%-10.4
3-8Maryland (48.8)B10H0-045%-1.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Nebraska's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Nebraska's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Nebraska.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
NebraskaB1027.8626.1356.4140.893.57-4.76
WisconsinB100.314.2490.9188.520.253.27
IowaB100.004.2166.6758.690.000.73
MinnesotaB100.004.2180.0067.400.001.46
IllinoisB100.004.1575.0064.870.001.23
MarylandB100.004.1590.9168.270.001.52
NorthwesternB100.002.5463.6443.350.00-0.34
Penn St.B100.002.5191.6755.210.000.26
Michigan St.B100.002.4866.6767.300.000.86
PurdueB100.002.4866.6758.680.000.43
Ohio St.B100.002.4581.8281.820.001.56
RutgersB100.002.4554.5533.120.00-0.83
IndianaB100.002.4581.8263.640.000.67
MichiganB100.002.4550.0039.790.00-0.50
Northern KentuckyASun5.861.9137.5044.80-1.47-0.20
Central ArkansasSlnd6.101.880.0018.32-6.10-1.19
Tennessee MartinOVC5.861.8275.0067.262.930.63
CreightonBE5.861.8272.7350.542.670.02
Incarnate WordSlnd5.561.8275.0075.422.780.92
Nebraska OmahaSum5.861.8250.0057.420.000.27
CincinnatiAmer5.561.7977.7866.843.090.60
Florida St.ACC5.561.7960.0043.381.11-0.24
HawaiiBW0.001.7966.6754.920.000.18
Rhode IslandA105.561.7962.5072.321.390.80
MarquetteBE0.620.2460.0048.980.12-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.220.0017.97-0.00-0.14
North FloridaASun0.250.2150.0057.820.000.03
Morehead St.OVC0.590.1516.6737.21-0.39-0.04
FordhamA100.000.1528.5727.11-0.00-0.07
ButlerBE0.000.1572.7367.960.000.05
VillanovaBE0.000.15100.0082.970.000.10
LouisvilleACC0.000.15100.0084.930.000.10
GeorgetownBE0.000.1470.0059.220.000.03
LamarSlnd0.000.1314.2935.86-0.00-0.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.1316.6736.63-0.00-0.04
New OrleansSlnd0.000.1320.0046.47-0.00-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.1222.2229.80-0.00-0.05
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.510.1240.0043.04-0.10-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.1233.3328.79-0.00-0.05
USC UpstateASun0.000.1263.6467.210.000.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1255.5655.280.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.1270.0051.780.000.00
BrownIvy0.000.1240.0033.80-0.00-0.04
ProvidenceBE0.560.1275.0057.390.280.02
SMUAmer0.000.1272.7375.710.000.06
SyracuseACC0.000.1260.0058.120.000.02
St. John'sBE0.000.1288.8965.170.000.04
UMBCAE0.000.1218.1825.30-0.00-0.06
DukeACC0.000.12100.0087.090.000.09
HamptonMEAC0.000.1245.4549.62-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.000.1290.0065.480.000.04
Miami FLACC0.000.1281.8266.010.000.04
North CarolinaACC0.000.1272.7374.850.000.06
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.510.1250.0071.260.000.05
VirginiaACC0.000.12100.0086.080.000.08
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.1114.2915.15-0.00-0.07
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.1166.6778.020.000.06
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.1133.3334.30-0.00-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.1020.0044.37-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.1016.6740.27-0.00-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.1055.5673.740.000.05
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.1020.0045.74-0.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.310.1040.0046.19-0.06-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.0910.0027.17-0.00-0.04
TulsaAmer0.230.0960.0056.620.050.01
Arkansas St.SB0.620.0942.8648.87-0.09-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.090.0034.33-0.00-0.03
IPFWSum0.000.0950.0054.190.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.0927.2728.86-0.00-0.04
MassachusettsA100.250.0954.5552.490.020.00
South DakotaSum0.230.0927.2738.30-0.11-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.000.0925.0033.40-0.00-0.03
SeattleWAC0.310.0933.3343.83-0.10-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.310.0940.0049.39-0.06-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0933.3337.91-0.00-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.310.0920.0025.85-0.19-0.04
George WashingtonA100.000.0966.6765.500.000.03
Georgia TechACC0.310.0980.0053.260.190.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.090.0014.00-0.00-0.06
OregonP120.000.0970.0057.440.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0945.4537.60-0.00-0.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0960.0043.890.00-0.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0940.0032.26-0.00-0.03
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0950.0058.370.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0975.0061.480.000.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0990.9183.090.000.06
Notre DameACC0.250.0991.6777.120.210.05
OaklandHorz0.000.0927.2732.45-0.00-0.03
OklahomaB120.230.0970.0062.710.090.02
Seton HallBE0.000.0990.0067.380.000.03
UCFAmer0.250.0955.5635.900.03-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0960.0038.030.00-0.02
WagnerNEC0.000.0912.5030.56-0.00-0.03
XavierBE0.000.0972.7367.590.000.03
UMKCWAC0.860.0720.0040.84-0.52-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0737.5041.94-0.00-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0736.3637.85-0.00-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0718.1822.49-0.00-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0777.7870.160.000.03
IdahoBSky0.310.0737.5052.01-0.080.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0710.0018.05-0.00-0.04
LipscombASun0.000.0722.2238.44-0.00-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0736.3650.71-0.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.0760.0065.120.000.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0712.5026.89-0.00-0.03
UC DavisBW0.000.0787.5068.000.000.02
UC IrvineBW0.000.0737.5046.38-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.0750.0043.310.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0737.5063.95-0.000.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.560.0736.3645.11-0.15-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.310.0636.3646.72-0.08-0.00
DenverSum0.000.0645.4555.13-0.000.01
La SalleA100.000.0654.5552.730.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0640.0044.08-0.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0660.0043.160.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0660.0033.270.00-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0670.0059.660.000.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0637.5031.88-0.00-0.02
DetroitHorz0.310.0640.0048.02-0.06-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0618.1837.71-0.00-0.02
BYUWCC0.000.0670.0068.340.000.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.310.0660.0076.250.060.03
High PointBSth0.000.0666.6761.790.000.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.310.0618.1820.86-0.20-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.310.060.0023.69-0.31-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.230.060.0011.59-0.23-0.05
DuquesneA100.000.0637.5034.06-0.00-0.02
KansasB120.310.0690.0070.680.250.03
Kansas St.B120.310.0663.6440.190.08-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.310.0644.4436.80-0.03-0.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.230.0633.3340.63-0.08-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.310.0650.0050.490.000.00
VCUA100.280.0672.7375.740.130.03
BucknellPat0.000.0640.0036.66-0.00-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.560.0642.8649.51-0.08-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0675.0066.220.000.02
FurmanSC0.000.0622.2231.81-0.00-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0662.5059.050.000.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0657.1455.330.000.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0620.0040.93-0.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0650.0051.710.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0027.67-0.00-0.03
AmericanPat0.000.0663.6463.240.000.02
Arizona St.P120.000.0654.5548.490.00-0.00
BaylorB120.000.0690.0073.240.000.03
Boise St.MWC0.000.0677.7872.890.000.03
BuffaloMAC0.000.0677.7870.890.000.02
CaliforniaP120.000.0690.9169.030.000.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0620.0027.29-0.00-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0650.0058.070.000.01
DePaulBE0.000.0660.0034.160.00-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0666.6762.580.000.01
Green BayHorz0.000.0675.0077.010.000.03
HoustonAmer0.000.0662.5041.790.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0630.0029.75-0.00-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.250.0630.0038.01-0.10-0.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0660.0062.070.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0630.0028.65-0.00-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.510.0650.0047.880.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0630.0031.48-0.00-0.02
MississippiSEC0.510.0670.0052.600.200.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.069.0917.12-0.00-0.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0642.8633.27-0.00-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0688.8963.020.000.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.0666.6755.670.000.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0655.5660.980.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.250.0640.0041.32-0.05-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.280.0655.5665.210.030.02
TempleAmer0.000.0663.6456.430.000.01
TexasB120.000.0690.9179.980.000.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0620.0052.97-0.000.00
The CitadelSC0.250.0614.2932.16-0.18-0.02
TulaneAmer0.000.0688.8955.860.000.01
UABCUSA0.000.0630.0036.69-0.00-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0666.6758.210.000.01
VMISC0.000.0633.3338.93-0.00-0.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0625.0044.27-0.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.560.0433.3341.02-0.19-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.560.0460.0071.280.110.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0363.6464.880.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.310.0318.1830.76-0.20-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0316.6733.39-0.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0350.0068.770.000.01
Illinois St.MVC0.310.0360.0061.600.060.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0350.0037.570.00-0.01
MaristMAAC0.000.039.0916.15-0.00-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0338.4644.61-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.310.030.008.60-0.31-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0350.0054.170.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0015.00-0.00-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0344.4449.14-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0363.6461.520.000.01
West VirginiaB120.310.0390.9170.080.250.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0345.4543.23-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.310.0350.0055.890.000.00
DavidsonA100.000.0388.8977.320.000.02
DaytonA100.000.0380.0069.770.000.01
George MasonA100.000.0333.3330.21-0.00-0.01
NevadaMWC0.310.0311.1125.48-0.24-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.310.0337.5056.46-0.080.00
RichmondA100.000.0360.0057.700.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.310.0342.8626.99-0.04-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0377.7865.110.000.01
ArizonaP120.000.03100.0082.630.000.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.310.0342.8637.83-0.04-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0357.1470.520.000.01
New MexicoMWC0.310.0372.7362.220.140.01
NJITind0.000.0341.6743.68-0.00-0.00
TroySB0.310.0333.3339.85-0.10-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0360.0056.150.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0366.6742.600.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.000.0325.0043.93-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0385.7170.530.000.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0354.5564.070.000.01
ColgatePat0.000.0320.0042.59-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.000.0355.5648.710.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.000.0350.0046.690.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.000.0322.2235.90-0.00-0.01
ElonCAA0.000.0344.4451.07-0.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0337.5039.65-0.00-0.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0363.6465.220.000.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0337.5050.31-0.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.009.06-0.00-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.0363.6455.660.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0375.0058.760.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0322.2236.53-0.00-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0344.4437.40-0.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0316.6735.27-0.00-0.01
NavyPat0.000.0320.0022.16-0.00-0.02
New HampshireAE0.000.0350.0060.410.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0342.8636.81-0.00-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.250.0370.0060.920.100.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0350.0053.250.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.230.0362.5058.080.060.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0336.3648.18-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.000.0333.3330.28-0.00-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.280.0372.7372.580.130.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0318.1827.33-0.00-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0330.0043.15-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.280.0333.3355.24-0.090.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0320.0035.33-0.00-0.01
USCP120.000.0360.0036.410.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0355.5652.610.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.0360.0057.890.000.00