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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Nebraska

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:165.0
Current RPI:165
Expected SOS:98
Current SOS:98
Current Record:16-18
Expected Record:16-18
Current Conf Record:8-13
Expected Conf Record:8-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-8
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-1
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:207
Expected OOC SOS:284



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-18165.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Nebraska.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Mississippi Valley St. (330.0)SWACH97-51W100%0.0
11-17Villanova (4.0)BEA87-63L0%0.0
11-19Delaware St. (345.0)MEACH75-60W100%0.0
11-22Southeastern Louisiana (331.0)SlndH92-65W100%0.0
11-24Arkansas Pine Bluff (311.0)SWACH67-44W100%0.0
11-27Cincinnati (48.0)AmerN61-65L0%0.0
11-28Tennessee (143.0)SECN71-82W100%0.0
12-1Miami FL (9.0)ACCH72-77L0%0.0
12-5Abilene Christian (321.0)SlndH73-63W100%0.0
12-9Creighton (100.0)BEA83-67L0%0.0
12-13Rhode Island (119.0)A10H70-67W100%0.0
12-20Samford (252.0)SCH58-69L0%0.0
12-22Prairie View A&M (334.0)SWACH81-50W100%0.0
12-30Northwestern (115.0)B10H72-81L0%0.0
1-2Indiana (24.0)B10H69-79L0%0.0
1-5Iowa (28.0)B10A77-66L0%0.0
1-9Rutgers (294.0)B10A56-90W100%0.0
1-12Minnesota (257.0)B10H84-59W100%0.0
1-16Illinois (149.0)B10A67-78W100%0.0
1-20Michigan St. (12.0)B10A71-72W100%0.0
1-23Michigan (56.0)B10H68-81L0%0.0
1-30Purdue (15.0)B10A89-74L0%0.0
2-3Maryland (14.0)B10H65-70L0%0.0
2-6Rutgers (294.0)B10H87-63W100%0.0
2-10Wisconsin (43.0)B10A72-61L0%0.0
2-13Penn St. (125.0)B10H70-54W100%0.0
2-17Indiana (24.0)B10A80-64L0%0.0
2-20Ohio St. (74.0)B10H62-65L0%0.0
2-25Penn St. (125.0)B10A56-55L0%0.0
3-1Purdue (15.0)B10H62-81L0%0.0
3-6Northwestern (115.0)B10A65-54L0%0.0
3-9Rutgers (294.0)B10N89-72W100%0.0
3-10Wisconsin (43.0)B10N58-70W100%0.0
3-11Maryland (14.0)B10N97-86L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Nebraska's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Nebraska's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Nebraska.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
NebraskaB1026.2026.2042.3142.31-4.03-4.03
RutgersB104.934.9321.4321.43-2.82-2.82
MarylandB103.603.6073.3373.331.681.68
PurdueB103.583.5875.0075.001.791.79
WisconsinB103.583.5863.3363.330.950.95
NorthwesternB103.563.5660.0060.000.710.71
IndianaB103.533.5376.6776.671.891.89
Penn St.B103.513.5150.0050.000.000.00
Michigan St.B102.272.2787.8887.881.721.72
MichiganB102.272.2762.5062.500.570.57
IllinoisB102.232.2345.4545.45-0.20-0.20
Ohio St.B102.202.2059.3859.380.410.41
MinnesotaB102.152.1526.6726.67-1.01-1.01
IowaB102.132.1366.6766.670.710.71
CreightonBE1.631.6354.8454.840.160.16
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC1.631.6325.0025.00-0.81-0.81
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC1.611.6123.5323.53-0.85-0.85
Prairie View A&MSWAC1.601.6023.3323.33-0.85-0.85
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd1.571.5733.3333.33-0.52-0.52
Abilene ChristianSlnd1.521.5234.6234.62-0.47-0.47
CincinnatiAmer1.521.5267.7467.740.540.54
Rhode IslandA101.521.5254.8454.840.150.15
VillanovaBE1.521.5284.8584.851.061.06
Delaware St.MEAC1.491.4917.2417.24-0.98-0.98
Miami FLACC1.471.4777.4277.420.810.81
SamfordSC1.471.4736.6736.67-0.39-0.39
TennesseeSEC1.471.4745.4545.45-0.13-0.13
St. John'sBE0.210.2122.5822.58-0.11-0.11
Seton HallBE0.200.2075.7675.760.110.11
GeorgetownBE0.200.2045.4545.45-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.200.2053.1253.120.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.200.2046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.200.2067.7467.740.070.07
George WashingtonA100.180.1869.7069.700.070.07
DePaulBE0.180.1829.0329.03-0.08-0.08
Grambling St.SWAC0.180.1814.2914.29-0.13-0.13
ProvidenceBE0.180.1869.7069.700.070.07
TempleAmer0.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
ConnecticutAmer0.160.1670.5970.590.070.07
MarquetteBE0.160.1660.6160.610.030.03
SouthernSWAC0.160.1661.2961.290.040.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.160.1656.2556.250.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.160.1635.7135.71-0.04-0.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.150.1525.0025.00-0.07-0.07
New OrleansSlnd0.140.1425.9325.93-0.07-0.07
TCUB120.140.1436.3636.36-0.04-0.04
Wake ForestACC0.140.1435.4835.48-0.04-0.04
VMISC0.140.1422.2222.22-0.08-0.08
HowardMEAC0.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Notre DameACC0.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
Virginia TechACC0.140.1457.5857.580.020.02
XavierBE0.130.1384.3884.380.090.09
Alabama St.SWAC0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.120.1244.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.120.1276.6776.670.070.07
Incarnate WordSlnd0.120.1256.0056.000.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.120.1226.9226.92-0.06-0.06
ClemsonACC0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.120.1235.7135.71-0.03-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.120.1229.0329.03-0.05-0.05
VCUA100.120.1270.5970.590.050.05
North CarolinaACC0.110.1182.3582.350.070.07
VirginiaACC0.110.1178.7978.790.060.06
MissouriSEC0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
FloridaSEC0.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
LamarSlnd0.100.1026.9226.92-0.05-0.05
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.1022.2222.22-0.06-0.06
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Florida St.ACC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.090.0984.3884.380.060.06
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
HoustonAmer0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
Western IllinoisSum0.090.0929.1729.17-0.04-0.04
Western CarolinaSC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.090.093.453.45-0.09-0.09
Old DominionCUSA0.090.0962.8662.860.020.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Iowa St.B120.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0921.8821.88-0.05-0.05
La SalleA100.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
OklahomaB120.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
Georgia TechACC0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
DuquesneA100.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0725.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.070.0720.8320.83-0.04-0.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.070.0713.7913.79-0.05-0.05
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0779.4179.410.040.04
MercerSC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
RadfordBSth0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
DukeACC0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
PrincetonIvy0.070.0777.7877.780.040.04
RiderMAAC0.070.0739.3939.39-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
MemphisAmer0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.070.0783.3383.330.050.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0779.4179.410.040.04
IUPUISum0.070.0738.7138.71-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
KentuckySEC0.070.0776.4776.470.030.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
AuburnSEC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0582.1482.140.030.03
HamptonMEAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UtahP120.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
FurmanSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
The CitadelSC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0535.2935.29-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0523.3323.33-0.02-0.02
PennIvy0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Texas TechB120.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
BucknellPat0.050.0555.1755.170.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0565.5265.520.010.01
DrexelCAA0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
FordhamA100.050.0555.1755.170.000.00
Green BayHorz0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
IPFWSum0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.050.0524.2424.24-0.02-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0579.3179.310.030.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.020.02
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.040.0460.7160.710.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.040.0445.1645.16-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.040.0453.1253.120.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.040.0431.2531.25-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.040.0458.0658.060.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.040.0440.0040.00-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.040.0483.3383.330.030.03
SeattleWAC0.040.0442.8642.86-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.040.0422.5822.58-0.02-0.02
LehighPat0.040.0451.6151.610.000.00
LSUSEC0.040.0457.5857.580.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.040.0453.1253.120.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.040.0474.1974.190.020.02
VermontAE0.040.0460.6160.610.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
New HampshireAE0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
PortlandWCC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
IdahoBSky0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
Texas St.SB0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
TroySB0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
AmericanPat0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
DavidsonA100.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
George MasonA100.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Saint LouisA100.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
UCFAmer0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.020.0218.5218.52-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
ElonCAA0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
AkronMAC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.020.0210.7110.71-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
MississippiSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
North FloridaASun0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
StanfordP120.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0264.2964.290.010.01
UABCUSA0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
YaleIvy0.020.0277.7877.780.010.01
BYUWCC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01