live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Feb 26, 2015.


Nebraska

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:126.6
Current RPI:124
Expected SOS:44
Current SOS:54
Current Record:13-15
Expected Record:14-16
Current Conf Record:5-11
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:154
Expected OOC SOS:246



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-1598.55.86%
14-16116.939.67%
13-17136.854.47%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Nebraska.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Northern Kentucky (253.8)ASunH80-61W100%0.0
11-18Central Arkansas (349.0)SlndH82-56W100%0.0
11-22Rhode Island (70.6)A10A66-62L0%0.0
11-25Nebraska Omaha (312.4)SumH80-67W100%0.0
11-28Tennessee Martin (161.2)OVCH75-64W100%0.0
12-1Florida St. (121.3)ACCA65-70W100%0.0
12-7Creighton (129.3)BEH55-65L0%0.0
12-10Incarnate Word (131.5)SlndH73-74L0%0.0
12-13Cincinnati (44.0)AmerH56-55W100%0.0
12-22Hawaii (164.9)BWA66-58L0%0.0
12-23Loyola Marymount (243.0)WCCN50-42W100%0.0
12-25Ohio (233.6)MACN71-58W100%0.0
12-31Indiana (46.8)B10H65-70L0%0.0
1-5Iowa (50.4)B10A70-59L0%0.0
1-8Rutgers (166.4)B10H65-49W100%0.0
1-11Illinois (64.9)B10H53-43W100%0.0
1-15Wisconsin (5.7)B10A70-55L0%0.0
1-20Minnesota (83.9)B10H52-49W100%0.0
1-24Michigan St. (32.0)B10H79-77W100%0.0
1-27Michigan (87.1)B10A58-44L0%0.0
1-31Minnesota (83.9)B10A60-42L0%0.0
2-3Northwestern (119.0)B10H76-60W100%0.0
2-7Penn St. (126.8)B10A56-43L0%0.0
2-10Wisconsin (5.7)B10H55-65L0%0.0
2-15Purdue (59.6)B10A66-54L0%0.0
2-19Maryland (12.5)B10A69-65L0%0.0
2-22Iowa (50.4)B10H46-74L0%0.0
2-26Ohio St. (35.5)B10A81-57L0%0.0
3-4Illinois (64.9)B10A0-017%-10.1
3-8Maryland (12.5)B10H0-034%-4.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Nebraska's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Nebraska's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Nebraska.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
NebraskaB1026.1126.1141.9640.59-4.20-4.92
WisconsinB104.123.9688.4686.563.172.90
IowaB104.113.9361.5462.090.950.95
MinnesotaB104.113.9357.6957.220.630.57
IllinoisB102.333.8862.9662.610.600.98
MarylandB102.323.8781.4881.391.462.43
NorthwesternB102.392.3851.8549.750.09-0.01
Penn St.B102.332.3451.8549.000.09-0.05
Michigan St.B102.302.3270.3768.080.940.84
PurdueB102.362.3266.6763.540.790.63
Ohio St.B102.332.2970.3770.580.950.94
RutgersB102.362.2935.7134.41-0.67-0.71
IndianaB102.332.2964.2963.350.670.61
MichiganB102.332.2948.0048.21-0.09-0.08
Northern KentuckyASun1.921.7840.0040.05-0.38-0.35
Central ArkansasSlnd1.901.764.175.00-1.74-1.58
Tennessee MartinOVC1.821.7064.0062.850.510.44
CreightonBE1.821.7044.4442.44-0.20-0.26
Incarnate WordSlnd1.821.7063.1661.980.480.41
Nebraska OmahaSum1.821.7036.0036.77-0.51-0.45
CincinnatiAmer1.791.6770.3769.630.730.65
Florida St.ACC1.791.6753.5752.400.130.08
HawaiiBW1.791.6759.2659.430.330.31
Loyola MarymountWCC1.791.6725.9325.53-0.86-0.82
OhioMAC1.791.6736.0034.92-0.50-0.50
Rhode IslandA101.791.6770.8369.650.740.65
MarquetteBE0.260.2240.7441.17-0.05-0.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.220.2119.0521.41-0.14-0.12
North FloridaASun0.230.2059.2660.570.040.04
Morehead St.OVC0.170.1442.8644.45-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.140.1432.0032.35-0.05-0.05
ButlerBE0.160.1471.4370.890.070.06
VillanovaBE0.100.1492.8691.360.080.11
LouisvilleACC0.130.1478.5776.950.070.07
GeorgetownBE0.160.1369.2367.760.060.05
Houston BaptistSlnd0.110.1335.0034.29-0.03-0.04
LamarSlnd0.110.1343.4842.11-0.01-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.140.1238.4639.97-0.03-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.150.1225.0030.33-0.07-0.05
Austin PeayOVC0.100.1222.2222.17-0.06-0.06
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.130.1251.8551.850.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.100.1228.5728.29-0.04-0.05
USC UpstateASun0.070.1265.3865.140.020.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.130.1137.0436.49-0.03-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.130.1166.6766.670.040.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.130.1154.1753.530.010.01
George WashingtonA100.130.1164.2963.500.040.03
BYUWCC0.130.1171.4369.470.050.04
BuffaloMAC0.100.1166.6767.400.030.04
DePaulBE0.130.1141.3840.26-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.100.1140.7440.56-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.100.1155.5656.610.010.01
BrownIvy0.100.1140.0039.77-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.130.1167.8667.070.050.04
SMUAmer0.130.1181.4880.500.080.07
SyracuseACC0.130.1164.2960.140.040.02
St. John'sBE0.130.1166.6763.990.040.03
UMBCAE0.130.1114.2914.93-0.09-0.08
PittsburghACC0.090.1164.2962.960.030.03
DukeACC0.130.1189.2988.120.100.08
HamptonMEAC0.100.1142.3141.62-0.01-0.02
Iowa St.B120.100.1174.0773.060.050.05
Miami FLACC0.090.1164.2963.100.030.03
North CarolinaACC0.130.1167.8667.610.050.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.100.1175.0077.310.050.06
VirginiaACC0.090.1196.3094.650.090.10
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.080.1025.0024.40-0.04-0.05
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.080.1083.3383.760.050.07
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.120.1052.0053.140.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0931.8237.72-0.03-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.120.0954.5554.770.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0978.2677.330.050.05
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.080.0930.7734.56-0.03-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.100.0969.2369.910.040.04
StetsonASun0.100.0923.0822.37-0.05-0.05
TulsaAmer0.080.0976.9273.060.040.04
Arkansas St.SB0.100.0940.0040.10-0.02-0.02
IPFWSum0.100.0948.0049.56-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.070.0934.4835.30-0.02-0.03
MassachusettsA100.100.0957.1456.560.010.01
South DakotaSum0.100.0946.4345.83-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.060.0924.0026.17-0.03-0.04
SeattleWAC0.100.0945.8346.11-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.100.0939.2940.71-0.02-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.100.0867.8667.600.040.03
LongwoodBSth0.100.0821.4322.46-0.06-0.05
AkronMAC0.070.0859.2659.530.010.02
Central MichiganMAC0.100.0878.2676.740.060.05
Saint Mary'sWCC0.100.0874.0774.220.050.04
UC IrvineBW0.100.0860.0059.760.020.02
UC RiversideBW0.100.0848.0046.54-0.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.100.0859.2659.110.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.100.0842.8642.05-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.0831.0334.48-0.04-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.100.0842.3143.33-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.100.0816.0015.15-0.07-0.06
Arizona St.P120.060.0853.5754.190.000.01
Boise St.MWC0.100.0873.0873.180.040.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0819.2320.46-0.04-0.05
Northern IllinoisMAC0.100.0840.0040.27-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.070.0871.4369.280.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.090.0842.8641.84-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.100.0838.4638.60-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.090.0855.5653.670.010.01
MissouriSEC0.060.0825.9326.68-0.03-0.04
MonmouthMAAC0.060.0853.3354.170.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0860.7161.360.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.100.0893.1090.930.080.07
Notre DameACC0.090.0882.7681.310.060.05
OaklandHorz0.060.0850.0048.930.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.100.0870.3769.820.040.03
Seton HallBE0.060.0855.5654.650.010.01
UCFAmer0.090.0842.3142.56-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.090.0835.7134.80-0.03-0.02
WagnerNEC0.060.0833.3332.95-0.02-0.03
XavierBE0.060.0862.0761.640.020.02
UMKCWAC0.080.0637.0438.77-0.02-0.01
IdahoBSky0.070.0641.6744.38-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0622.2221.87-0.04-0.03
LipscombASun0.070.0636.0037.68-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.030.0685.1984.500.020.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.080.0651.8551.680.000.00
BelmontOVC0.070.0662.9664.060.020.02
ToledoMAC0.070.0664.2963.780.020.02
DenverSum0.070.0642.8642.65-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.040.0653.5753.000.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0651.8552.250.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.040.0644.4442.95-0.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.070.0637.0436.55-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0670.3770.390.030.02
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0625.0024.46-0.03-0.03
DetroitHorz0.070.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.070.0653.8555.830.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.070.0672.0072.050.030.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0617.8618.91-0.04-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0619.2322.26-0.04-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0642.3143.94-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0672.0070.110.030.02
GonzagaWCC0.060.0696.5596.180.060.05
Kent St.MAC0.070.0666.6764.480.020.02
PacificWCC0.060.0634.6234.06-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.060.0651.8552.040.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.060.0646.4346.30-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.070.0615.3815.96-0.05-0.04
DuquesneA100.070.0636.0034.76-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.070.0678.5776.450.040.03
Kansas St.B120.070.0648.2846.44-0.00-0.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.070.0624.0023.95-0.03-0.03
UMass LowellAE0.070.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.070.0675.0074.480.030.03
Wichita St.MVC0.060.0689.2988.690.050.04
BucknellPat0.070.0655.1754.540.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0660.0059.770.010.01
USCP120.060.0635.7135.30-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0657.6956.870.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.060.0645.8345.37-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0626.9225.83-0.01-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0621.4322.23-0.04-0.03
FurmanSC0.060.0623.0822.71-0.03-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0666.6765.750.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0640.7444.50-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.060.0679.1777.270.040.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0652.0052.970.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0640.7441.43-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0660.0058.430.010.01
High PointBSth0.060.0573.0872.070.030.02
AmericanPat0.030.0551.7252.130.000.00
BaylorB120.030.0574.0773.870.020.03
CaliforniaP120.060.0557.1454.110.010.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0516.6716.91-0.02-0.04
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0559.2658.320.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0573.9170.390.020.02
Green BayHorz0.060.0574.0774.330.030.03
HoustonAmer0.060.0533.3335.14-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0546.4346.69-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0555.5654.350.010.00
MemphisAmer0.030.0560.7158.880.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0551.8551.810.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0540.7440.86-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.060.0567.8666.100.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0517.8620.58-0.04-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0561.5461.350.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.060.0544.8345.59-0.01-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.060.0525.9328.09-0.03-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0551.8551.130.000.00
TempleAmer0.060.0568.9768.670.020.02
TexasB120.060.0560.7160.420.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0555.5657.580.010.01
The CitadelSC0.060.0532.0032.30-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.060.0551.8553.170.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0555.5656.260.010.01
VMISC0.030.0534.6235.80-0.01-0.02
WinthropBSth0.030.0552.0053.540.000.00
TulaneAmer0.030.0550.0049.870.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.040.0345.8346.48-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.040.0370.3772.250.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0330.7731.61-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0361.5462.360.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0360.7160.580.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0335.7134.86-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0355.1756.090.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0323.0822.51-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0310.7110.56-0.03-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0337.0436.30-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0378.5775.030.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0329.6330.57-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0344.0043.79-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.040.0376.0075.760.020.02
DaytonA100.000.0377.7874.890.000.01
George MasonA100.040.0326.9226.88-0.02-0.01
NevadaMWC0.030.0324.0025.41-0.02-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0344.0045.59-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.040.0357.1458.580.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.040.0324.0022.68-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0334.6234.47-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.030.0389.2987.910.030.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.040.0344.4443.02-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.030.0324.0025.19-0.02-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.040.0365.3865.380.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0364.2963.560.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.040.0350.0050.670.000.00
NJITind0.030.0354.1754.130.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0355.5656.230.000.00
StanfordP120.030.0366.6764.450.010.01
TroySB0.040.0332.0031.79-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0338.4639.23-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.030.0344.4444.97-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.030.0317.8618.19-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0338.4641.61-0.01-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0333.3334.43-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0325.9326.74-0.02-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0342.8645.64-0.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.030.0344.8345.47-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.030.0344.0044.59-0.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.030.0341.6741.69-0.01-0.00
DrexelCAA0.030.0337.0436.04-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.030.0339.2939.48-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0322.2224.13-0.02-0.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0346.4346.88-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0353.8553.120.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.030.001.33-0.03-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.030.0360.0059.190.010.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0355.5656.450.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.030.0330.7730.30-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0340.7439.82-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.95-0.02-0.01
NavyPat0.030.0335.7135.96-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.030.0357.6959.090.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.030.0348.0045.31-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.030.0363.3363.510.010.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0366.6767.390.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0344.8345.10-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.030.0337.9337.78-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0377.7877.760.020.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0324.0025.09-0.02-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0368.9768.490.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.030.0364.2964.460.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0325.9326.41-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0333.3333.99-0.01-0.01