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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.

Nebraska

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:104.0
Current RPI:104
Expected SOS:13
Current SOS:13
Current Record:15-18
Expected Record:15-18
Current Conf Record:6-14
Expected Conf Record:6-14
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-0
Current OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:69
Expected OOC SOS:64


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-18104.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Nebraska.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Southern (180.0)SWACH66-55W100%0.0
11-15Valparaiso (58.0)HorzH50-48W100%0.0
11-18Nebraska Omaha (285.0)SumH75-62W100%0.0
11-21Tulane (175.0)CUSAH61-57W100%0.0
11-24Kent St. (131.0)MACH60-74L0%0.0
11-27Wake Forest (170.0)ACCA63-79W100%0.0
12-3Southern California (118.0)P12H63-51W100%0.0
12-6Creighton (25.0)MVCH42-64L0%0.0
12-15Oregon (48.0)P12A60-38L0%0.0
12-18Jacksonville St. (142.0)OVCH59-55W100%0.0
12-22Central Michigan (268.0)MACN89-75W100%0.0
12-23Texas El Paso (95.0)CUSAA68-52L0%0.0
12-29Nicholls St. (296.0)SlndH68-59W100%0.0
1-2Ohio St. (10.0)B10A70-44L0%0.0
1-6Wisconsin (32.0)B10H41-47L0%0.0
1-9Michigan (20.0)B10A62-47L0%0.0
1-13Michigan St. (9.0)B10A66-56L0%0.0
1-16Purdue (136.0)B10H56-65L0%0.0
1-19Penn St. (186.0)B10A64-68W100%0.0
1-22Illinois (40.0)B10H51-71L0%0.0
1-26Northwestern (168.0)B10H64-49W100%0.0
1-29Minnesota (34.0)B10A84-65L0%0.0
2-2Ohio St. (10.0)B10H56-63L0%0.0
2-9Penn St. (186.0)B10H67-53W100%0.0
2-13Indiana (8.0)B10A76-47L0%0.0
2-16Michigan St. (9.0)B10H64-73L0%0.0
2-23Iowa (79.0)B10H64-60W100%0.0
2-26Wisconsin (32.0)B10A77-46L0%0.0
3-2Illinois (40.0)B10A72-65L0%0.0
3-6Minnesota (34.0)B10H53-51W100%0.0
3-9Iowa (79.0)B10A74-60L0%0.0
3-14Purdue (136.0)B10N55-57W100%0.0
3-15Ohio St. (10.0)B10N71-50L0%0.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Nebraska's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Nebraska's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Nebraska.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.


Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
NebraskaB1026.2526.2540.4340.43-5.03-5.03
Ohio St.B105.245.2476.6776.672.802.80
WisconsinB103.923.9265.6265.621.231.23
Michigan St.B103.843.8473.3373.331.791.79
IllinoisB103.803.8061.2961.290.860.86
IowaB103.783.7864.5264.521.101.10
MinnesotaB103.753.7563.3363.331.001.00
PurdueB103.713.7146.6746.67-0.25-0.25
Penn St.B103.683.6834.4834.48-1.14-1.14
MichiganB102.382.3877.4277.421.311.31
IndianaB102.382.3881.2581.251.491.49
NorthwesternB102.332.3341.9441.94-0.38-0.38
TulaneCUSA1.641.6458.0658.060.260.26
Southern CaliforniaP121.631.6345.1645.16-0.16-0.16
Central MichiganMAC1.611.6134.4834.48-0.50-0.50
OregonP121.591.5975.7675.760.820.82
Nicholls St.Slnd1.591.5931.0331.03-0.60-0.60
Texas El PasoCUSA1.581.5854.8454.840.150.15
Nebraska OmahaSum1.581.5835.7135.71-0.45-0.45
Kent St.MAC1.561.5658.0658.060.250.25
CreightonMVC1.561.5678.7978.790.900.90
SouthernSWAC1.541.5471.4371.430.660.66
ValparaisoHorz1.541.5480.6580.650.940.94
Jacksonville St.OVC1.541.5460.0060.000.310.31
Wake ForestACC1.521.5243.3343.33-0.20-0.20
Chicago St.GWC0.190.1925.0025.00-0.10-0.10
WashingtonP120.180.1854.5554.550.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.170.1741.9441.94-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.170.1753.3353.330.010.01
AkronMAC0.170.1780.6580.650.100.10
DukeACC0.170.1784.3884.380.110.11
StanfordP120.160.1656.2556.250.020.02
CaliforniaP120.160.1664.5264.520.050.05
Ball St.MAC0.140.1448.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UtahP120.140.1441.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.130.1370.9770.970.050.05
South DakotaSum0.120.1228.5728.57-0.05-0.05
Northern IllinoisMAC0.120.1213.7913.79-0.09-0.09
OaklandSum0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.120.1270.9770.970.050.05
BuffaloMAC0.120.1237.5037.50-0.03-0.03
ToledoMAC0.120.1253.5753.570.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.120.1270.5970.590.050.05
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.120.1222.5822.58-0.07-0.07
Bowling GreenMAC0.120.1236.6736.67-0.03-0.03
BucknellPat0.120.1284.3884.380.080.08
Georgia TechACC0.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
HoustonCUSA0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
MemphisCUSA0.120.1288.2488.240.090.09
TulsaCUSA0.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
KansasB120.120.1285.2985.290.080.08
Oregon St.P120.120.1243.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
Alabama A&MSWAC0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
IUPUISum0.100.1013.3313.33-0.07-0.07
South Dakota St.Sum0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
Iowa St.B120.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
NC AshevilleBSth0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.100.109.689.68-0.08-0.08
Western MichiganMAC0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.100.1037.5037.50-0.02-0.02
MarylandACC0.100.1064.7164.710.030.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.100.1017.8617.86-0.06-0.06
Wright St.Horz0.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.100.1017.2417.24-0.06-0.06
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
XavierA100.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.090.0940.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.090.0913.7913.79-0.07-0.07
Southern MethodistCUSA0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
ArizonaP120.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
ButlerA100.090.0975.7675.760.050.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
Long Beach St.BW0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
Arizona St.P120.090.0963.6463.640.030.03
UCLAP120.090.0973.5373.530.040.04
Washington St.P120.090.0940.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.090.0920.0020.00-0.06-0.06
Gardner WebbBSth0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0828.1228.12-0.04-0.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.080.0872.7372.730.030.03
Oral RobertsSlnd0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
OhioMAC0.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0717.2417.24-0.05-0.05
ConnecticutBE0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Miami FLACC0.070.0781.8281.820.050.05
RichmondA100.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
HofstraCAA0.070.0719.3519.35-0.04-0.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Southern MississippiCUSA0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
TexasB120.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
West VirginiaB120.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.070.0765.5265.520.020.02
UABCUSA0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
AlbanyAE0.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.070.0740.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
WinthropBSth0.070.0739.2939.29-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
ColoradoP120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
MarquetteBE0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
DrakeMVC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
BelmontOVC0.060.0680.0080.000.030.03
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0637.0437.04-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
GramblingSWAC0.050.050.000.00-0.05-0.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0571.4371.430.020.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
New Orleansind0.050.0518.1818.18-0.03-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0570.3770.370.020.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0585.1985.190.040.04
Texas ChristianB120.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Texas St.WAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
DuquesneA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
New HampshireAE0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
PennsylvaniaIvy0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
Texas San AntonioWAC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
AmericanPat0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Central FloridaCUSA0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.050.0553.8553.850.000.00
LafayettePat0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
NC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
North FloridaASun0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Notre DameBE0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
VillanovaBE0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistGWC0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
ColgatePat0.050.0534.3834.38-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0593.7593.750.040.04
HawaiiBW0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
HowardMEAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckySB0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
CornellIvy0.040.0440.0040.00-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.040.0454.8454.840.000.00
FloridaSEC0.040.0478.7978.790.030.03
SamfordSC0.040.0432.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0328.0028.00-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DenverWAC0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Texas TechB120.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
CharlotteA100.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
UC DavisBW0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Utah St.WAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
FurmanSC0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
High PointBSth0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
IonaMAAC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
MercerASun0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
NC GreensboroSC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
BaylorB120.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.020.026.906.90-0.02-0.02
BrownIvy0.020.0244.4444.44-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
DaytonA100.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
DrexelCAA0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
IdahoWAC0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
NavyPat0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
PittsburghBE0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.020.0259.2659.260.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
St. LouisA100.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
TempleA100.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticSB0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
CincinnatiBE0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.020.0219.3519.35-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
North TexasSB0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.020.0223.0823.08-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
St. Mary'sWCC0.020.0281.2581.250.010.01