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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Nebraska

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:48.0
Current RPI:48
Expected SOS:29
Current SOS:29
Current Record:19-12
Expected Record:19-12
Current Conf Record:11-8
Expected Conf Record:11-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:89
Expected OOC SOS:106



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1248.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Nebraska.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Florida Gulf Coast (146.0)ASunH79-55W100%0.0
11-12Western Illinois (290.0)SumH62-47W100%0.0
11-17South Carolina St. (331.0)MEACH83-57W100%0.0
11-21Massachusetts (23.0)A10N96-90L0%0.0
11-22UAB (152.0)CUSAN87-74L0%0.0
11-24Georgia (74.0)SECN65-73W100%0.0
11-30Northern Illinois (217.0)MACH63-58W100%0.0
12-4Miami FL (110.0)ACCH60-49W100%0.0
12-8Creighton (10.0)BEA82-67L0%0.0
12-14Arkansas St. (180.0)SBH79-67W100%0.0
12-21The Citadel (345.0)SCH77-62W100%0.0
12-28Cincinnati (21.0)AmerA74-59L0%0.0
12-31Iowa (56.0)B10A67-57L0%0.0
1-4Ohio St. (24.0)B10A84-53L0%0.0
1-9Michigan (11.0)B10H70-71L0%0.0
1-12Purdue (145.0)B10A70-64L0%0.0
1-20Ohio St. (24.0)B10H68-62W100%0.0
1-23Penn St. (114.0)B10A58-54L0%0.0
1-26Minnesota (50.0)B10H82-78W100%0.0
1-30Indiana (102.0)B10H60-55W100%0.0
2-5Michigan (11.0)B10A79-50L0%0.0
2-8Northwestern (123.0)B10A49-53W100%0.0
2-12Illinois (70.0)B10H67-58W100%0.0
2-16Michigan St. (18.0)B10A51-60W100%0.0
2-20Penn St. (114.0)B10H80-67W100%0.0
2-23Purdue (145.0)B10H76-57W100%0.0
2-26Illinois (70.0)B10A60-49L0%0.0
3-1Northwestern (123.0)B10H54-47W100%0.0
3-5Indiana (102.0)B10A60-70W100%0.0
3-9Wisconsin (6.0)B10H77-68W100%0.0
3-14Ohio St. (24.0)B10N67-71L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Nebraska's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Nebraska's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Nebraska.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
NebraskaB1026.2226.2260.6860.685.605.60
Ohio St.B105.565.5674.1974.192.692.69
MichiganB104.024.0274.1974.191.941.94
IllinoisB103.993.9958.0658.060.640.64
PurdueB103.983.9846.6746.67-0.27-0.27
Penn St.B103.943.9446.6746.67-0.26-0.26
IndianaB103.943.9456.6756.670.530.53
NorthwesternB103.903.9045.1645.16-0.38-0.38
Michigan St.B102.522.5278.7978.791.451.45
MinnesotaB102.452.4561.2961.290.550.55
WisconsinB102.402.4081.2581.251.501.50
IowaB102.402.4060.0060.000.480.48
South Carolina St.MEAC1.661.6625.9325.93-0.80-0.80
MassachusettsA101.641.6474.1974.190.790.79
Northern IllinoisMAC1.641.6446.6746.67-0.11-0.11
Arkansas St.SB1.611.6158.6258.620.280.28
CincinnatiAmer1.611.6181.2581.251.011.01
CreightonBE1.611.6178.1278.120.910.91
Florida Gulf CoastASun1.611.6164.5264.520.470.47
GeorgiaSEC1.611.6161.2961.290.360.36
Miami FLACC1.611.6153.1253.120.100.10
The CitadelSC1.611.6114.2914.29-1.15-1.15
UABCUSA1.611.6153.5753.570.120.12
Western IllinoisSum1.611.6126.9226.92-0.74-0.74
North FloridaASun0.200.2046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.190.1948.1548.15-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.170.1746.8846.88-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.170.1761.7661.760.040.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.150.1536.6736.67-0.04-0.04
Florida St.ACC0.150.1559.3859.380.030.03
MissouriSEC0.150.1566.6766.670.050.05
MarquetteBE0.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.130.1329.0329.03-0.06-0.06
WoffordSC0.130.1358.6258.620.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.130.1378.5778.570.070.07
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.130.1332.1432.14-0.05-0.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.130.1313.7913.79-0.09-0.09
Louisiana MonroeSB0.120.1234.6234.62-0.04-0.04
George WashingtonA100.120.1275.0075.000.060.06
SyracuseACC0.120.1284.3884.380.090.09
XavierBE0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
ConnecticutAmer0.120.1276.4776.470.070.07
St. John'sBE0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
OhioMAC0.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
DePaulBE0.120.1236.3636.36-0.03-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.120.1234.4834.48-0.04-0.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.110.1157.1457.140.020.02
TroySB0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
IPFWSum0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
IUPUISum0.110.1110.3410.34-0.09-0.09
Appalachian St.SC0.110.1119.2319.23-0.06-0.06
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.110.1117.8617.86-0.07-0.07
CharlotteCUSA0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
LSUSEC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
SamfordSC0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
TempleAmer0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Iowa St.B120.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
Western MichiganMAC0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
MississippiSEC0.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
SienaMAAC0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.100.1022.5822.58-0.05-0.05
La SalleA100.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.100.1073.5373.530.050.05
Georgia TechACC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.100.1067.6567.650.030.03
WyomingMWC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
UICHorz0.100.1013.7913.79-0.07-0.07
StanfordP120.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
UCFAmer0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
MarylandACC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0816.6716.67-0.06-0.06
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0883.8783.870.060.06
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
DavidsonSC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
FurmanSC0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0841.1841.18-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
ClemsonACC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
RutgersAmer0.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
PennIvy0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
ArkansasSEC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
DuquesneA100.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
LipscombASun0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MercerASun0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
DartmouthIvy0.070.0738.4638.46-0.02-0.02
VillanovaBE0.070.0787.5087.500.060.06
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
USC UpstateASun0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
West VirginiaB120.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
KentuckySEC0.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
OaklandHorz0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
AmericanPat0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
BryantNEC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
DelawareCAA0.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
DenverSum0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
South DakotaSum0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckySB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
ElonSC0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
FIUCUSA0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
TulsaCUSA0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
ColoradoP120.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
BuffaloMAC0.050.0564.2964.290.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
BucknellPat0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0546.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.050.0570.3770.370.020.02
RichmondA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
RiderMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
WagnerNEC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
WashingtonP120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Washington St.P120.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.050.0594.1294.120.040.04
Saint LouisA100.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
Arizona St.P120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
BradleyMVC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.050.0551.8551.850.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0514.8114.81-0.03-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
MemphisAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
OregonP120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
SMUAmer0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
UCLAP120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
UNLVMWC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
VirginiaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
IdahoWAC0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
NavyPat0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
TowsonCAA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
TulaneCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UTSACUSA0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
VMIBSth0.030.0355.5655.560.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0324.0024.00-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0321.2121.21-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
DaytonA100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
FordhamA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
IonaMAAC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
LehighPat0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
CampbellBSth0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Green BayHorz0.020.0277.7877.780.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSlnd0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0230.3030.30-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0287.1087.100.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
UMKCWAC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
PortlandWCC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.020.0269.7069.700.010.01