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Through games of Nov 21, 2014.


Nebraska

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:92.0
Current RPI:127
Expected SOS:30
Current SOS:237
Current Record:2-0
Expected Record:14-14
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:2-0
Expected OOC Record:8-2
Expected OOC RPI:103
Expected OOC SOS:261



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-69.30.06%
21-712.70.23%
20-820.60.69%
19-927.22.02%
18-1036.34.49%
17-1148.48.40%
16-1261.513.56%
15-1377.417.05%
14-1494.017.75%
13-15112.315.09%
12-16132.410.70%
11-17152.35.80%
10-18170.62.88%
9-19191.70.92%
8-20212.00.30%
7-21235.80.04%
6-22265.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Nebraska.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Northern Kentucky (274.7)ASunH80-61W100%0.0
11-18Central Arkansas (336.5)SlndH82-56W100%0.0
11-22Rhode Island (128.3)A10A0-049%-0.3
11-25Nebraska Omaha (285.7)SumH0-092%17.1
11-28Tennessee Martin (295.0)OVCH0-095%19.8
12-1Florida St. (86.5)ACCA0-034%-5.1
12-7Creighton (101.0)BEH0-066%4.8
12-10Incarnate Word (262.8)SlndH0-093%18.1
12-13Cincinnati (48.9)AmerH0-058%2.3
12-22Hawaii (205.6)BWA0-064%4.5
12-31Indiana (64.5)B10H0-052%0.6
1-5Iowa (29.3)B10A0-018%-11.1
1-8Rutgers (176.7)B10H0-079%9.7
1-11Illinois (42.2)B10H0-046%-1.2
1-15Wisconsin (7.6)B10A0-010%-15.5
1-20Minnesota (55.3)B10H0-047%-0.8
1-24Michigan St. (30.2)B10H0-037%-3.8
1-27Michigan (34.7)B10A0-022%-9.4
1-31Minnesota (55.3)B10A0-025%-8.0
2-3Northwestern (162.9)B10H0-078%9.2
2-7Penn St. (125.3)B10A0-048%-0.5
2-10Wisconsin (7.6)B10H0-024%-8.3
2-15Purdue (63.6)B10A0-030%-6.3
2-19Maryland (60.2)B10A0-029%-6.5
2-22Iowa (29.3)B10H0-037%-4.0
2-26Ohio St. (32.4)B10A0-018%-10.9
3-4Illinois (42.2)B10A0-024%-8.4
3-8Maryland (60.2)B10H0-052%0.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Nebraska's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Nebraska's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Nebraska.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
NebraskaB1033.3326.16100.0047.8833.33-1.11
WisconsinB104.174.26100.0080.974.172.64
IowaB100.004.2450.0067.510.001.48
MinnesotaB100.004.2350.0063.730.001.16
IllinoisB100.004.18100.0065.690.001.31
MarylandB100.004.17100.0063.990.001.17
NorthwesternB100.002.57100.0044.450.00-0.29
Penn St.B100.002.5475.0044.990.00-0.25
Michigan St.B100.002.5066.6771.610.001.08
PurdueB100.002.50100.0060.230.000.51
RutgersB100.002.4850.0036.800.00-0.65
IndianaB100.002.48100.0064.370.000.71
Ohio St.B100.002.48100.0073.320.001.15
MichiganB100.002.47100.0066.440.000.81
Northern KentuckyASun25.001.9150.0039.750.00-0.39
Central ArkansasSlnd25.001.880.0021.61-25.00-1.07
Tennessee MartinOVC0.001.8250.0037.080.00-0.47
CreightonBE4.171.82100.0056.554.170.24
Incarnate WordSlnd0.001.820.0043.05-0.00-0.25
Nebraska OmahaSum4.171.8250.0036.600.00-0.49
CincinnatiAmer0.001.79100.0065.620.000.56
Florida St.ACC0.001.7950.0055.960.000.21
HawaiiBW0.001.7975.0055.480.000.20
Rhode IslandA100.001.79100.0053.140.000.11
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.230.0035.31-0.00-0.07
MarquetteBE0.000.2150.0054.250.000.02
North FloridaASun0.000.210.0049.10-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.000.160.0034.73-0.00-0.05
Morehead St.OVC0.000.160.0054.04-0.000.01
ButlerBE0.000.15100.0054.180.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.15100.0079.370.000.09
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.130.0025.67-0.00-0.07
LamarSlnd0.000.130.0033.17-0.00-0.05
New OrleansSlnd0.000.130.0034.37-0.00-0.04
Austin PeayOVC0.000.130.0029.88-0.00-0.05
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.130.0034.26-0.00-0.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.130.0027.11-0.00-0.06
USC UpstateASun0.000.13100.0050.220.000.00
BrownIvy0.000.1233.3338.39-0.00-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.000.12100.0062.680.000.03
PittsburghACC0.000.1266.6751.250.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1233.3347.78-0.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.12100.0086.380.000.09
St. John'sBE0.000.12100.0052.280.000.01
SMUAmer0.000.1233.3367.72-0.000.04
UMBCAE0.000.120.0035.60-0.00-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.120.0069.29-0.000.05
VillanovaBE0.000.12100.0067.360.000.04
SyracuseACC0.000.1275.0070.210.000.05
HamptonMEAC0.000.1233.3359.35-0.000.02
Miami FLACC0.000.12100.0073.200.000.05
North CarolinaACC0.000.12100.0066.050.000.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.110.0029.61-0.00-0.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.110.0067.54-0.000.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.110.0053.38-0.000.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.100.0045.64-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.100.0053.20-0.000.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.1050.0061.070.000.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.100.0041.45-0.00-0.02
MassachusettsA100.000.10100.0063.880.000.03
SouthernSWAC0.000.100.0045.55-0.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.100.0041.63-0.00-0.02
TulsaAmer0.000.1066.6752.000.000.00
StetsonASun0.000.090.0032.16-0.00-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.000.090.0044.57-0.00-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.090.0054.47-0.000.01
IPFWSum0.000.0950.0065.390.000.03
IUPUISum0.000.0933.3330.78-0.00-0.04
George WashingtonA100.000.0966.6777.370.000.05
South DakotaSum0.000.090.0036.84-0.00-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.000.090.0043.21-0.00-0.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0933.3347.72-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.090.0031.68-0.00-0.03
OregonP120.000.09100.0070.690.000.04
LongwoodBSth0.000.0950.0021.230.00-0.05
Notre DameACC0.000.09100.0069.430.000.04
Wake ForestACC0.000.0950.0041.490.00-0.02
OaklandHorz0.000.090.0033.70-0.00-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.09100.0059.140.000.02
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0950.0059.350.000.02
Seton HallBE0.000.09100.0057.560.000.01
WagnerNEC0.000.090.0043.90-0.00-0.01
XavierBE0.000.09100.0076.430.000.05
GeorgetownBE0.000.09100.0064.920.000.03
UCFAmer0.000.09100.0045.610.00-0.01
VirginiaACC0.000.09100.0076.260.000.05
ClemsonACC0.000.0933.3344.93-0.00-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.09100.0041.370.00-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.000.0750.0038.240.00-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.070.0038.57-0.00-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0733.3344.98-0.00-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0733.3352.91-0.000.00
UC DavisBW0.000.07100.0043.140.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0750.0062.910.000.02
UC RiversideBW0.000.070.0027.23-0.00-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.070.0054.32-0.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0733.3343.51-0.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0750.0059.030.000.01
La SalleA100.000.07100.0055.910.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0733.3333.43-0.00-0.02
Saint LouisA100.000.07100.0066.070.000.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0725.0033.23-0.00-0.02
DetroitHorz0.000.070.0055.45-0.000.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.07100.0071.730.000.03
IdahoBSky0.000.0750.0047.220.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.070.0024.25-0.00-0.03
LipscombASun0.000.070.0041.45-0.00-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0750.0072.260.000.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.070.0035.17-0.00-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0750.0049.560.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.000.06100.0058.330.000.01
DuquesneA100.000.060.0051.78-0.000.00
VCUA100.000.06100.0074.770.000.03
DenverSum0.000.0650.0062.440.000.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0633.3349.79-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0633.3349.18-0.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.000.060.0034.57-0.00-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.000.0633.3331.34-0.00-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0633.3336.31-0.00-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0050.900.000.00
Kansas St.B120.000.0666.6755.230.000.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.06100.0061.420.000.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC4.170.060.0023.20-4.17-0.03
BucknellPat0.000.0633.3346.82-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0027.18-0.00-0.03
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.06100.0029.380.00-0.03
Boise St.MWC0.000.06100.0065.850.000.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0666.6759.850.000.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0675.0073.240.000.03
FurmanSC0.000.0650.0025.820.00-0.03
Green BayHorz0.000.060.0065.86-0.000.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.060.0033.64-0.00-0.02
UABCUSA0.000.060.0043.40-0.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0650.0040.180.00-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.060.0045.03-0.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0650.0043.330.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.06100.0048.390.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.06100.0058.280.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0038.27-0.00-0.01
The CitadelSC0.000.060.0027.74-0.00-0.03
AmericanPat0.000.0666.6764.270.000.02
Arizona St.P120.000.06100.0058.420.000.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.060.0035.33-0.00-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.06100.0075.400.000.03
DePaulBE0.000.06100.0037.800.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.060.0034.69-0.00-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.060.0046.93-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.000.06100.0065.750.000.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0650.0051.340.000.00
MemphisAmer0.000.060.0065.36-0.000.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0666.6750.370.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.000.06100.0053.870.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.000.060.0051.62-0.000.00
TempleAmer0.000.0666.6760.730.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0650.0033.930.00-0.02
VMISC0.000.0650.0043.730.00-0.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0650.0056.600.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.06100.0052.690.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.060.0057.16-0.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0650.0033.640.00-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0015.85-0.00-0.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0650.0036.850.00-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.06100.0044.620.00-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0040.22-0.00-0.01
Iowa St.B120.000.06100.0061.270.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.06100.0045.530.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.06100.0068.990.000.02
PepperdineWCC0.000.06100.0051.000.000.00
TexasB120.000.06100.0084.130.000.04
PrincetonIvy0.000.0433.3349.73-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.04100.0069.630.000.01
BYUWCC0.000.04100.0069.310.000.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.040.0033.60-0.00-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.04100.0061.810.000.01
DavidsonA100.000.03100.0048.380.00-0.00
DaytonA100.000.0366.6769.310.000.01
George MasonA100.000.0325.0022.09-0.00-0.02
KansasB120.000.0350.0060.200.000.01
RichmondA100.000.0350.0062.660.000.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0350.0052.770.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0350.0050.390.000.00
BelmontOVC0.000.0350.0072.160.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.030.0046.41-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.03100.0063.380.000.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0350.0054.580.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.030.0032.47-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0325.0029.11-0.00-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.030.0033.43-0.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0027.72-0.00-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.030.0037.20-0.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0333.3363.82-0.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.03100.0068.580.000.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.030.0036.14-0.00-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0350.0045.330.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.000.03100.0068.970.000.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0350.0052.120.000.00
NJITind0.000.0333.3328.81-0.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.030.0047.54-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.030.0051.04-0.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.030.0062.16-0.000.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0366.6766.420.000.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.0023.71-0.00-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.030.0038.29-0.00-0.01
NavyPat0.000.030.0032.22-0.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0375.0062.010.000.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0366.6751.360.000.00
SamfordSC0.000.0333.3332.57-0.00-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0350.0047.150.00-0.00
TroySB0.000.030.0046.30-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.000.0366.6763.580.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0045.780.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.03100.0070.040.000.01
CornellIvy0.000.0340.0041.64-0.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0033.39-0.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.000.030.0034.27-0.00-0.01
ElonCAA0.000.0350.0040.300.00-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0350.0036.810.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0366.6751.090.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.030.0048.03-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.000.0366.6760.220.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.030.0037.45-0.00-0.01
New HampshireAE0.000.030.0041.70-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.03100.0046.320.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.000.0350.0059.230.000.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0070.600.000.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.030.0026.04-0.00-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.03100.0082.150.000.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.030.0054.88-0.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.0333.3363.09-0.000.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0055.380.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0350.0041.690.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.000.030.0030.14-0.00-0.01
ColgatePat0.000.030.0036.43-0.00-0.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0366.6766.600.000.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0366.6747.240.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.03100.0036.560.00-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.03100.0069.720.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0333.3336.04-0.00-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.030.0028.95-0.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0350.0052.540.000.00