live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Nebraska

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:107.0
Current RPI:107
Expected SOS:5
Current SOS:5
Current Record:11-19
Expected Record:11-19
Current Conf Record:6-13
Expected Conf Record:6-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:2-0
Current OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:102
Expected OOC SOS:4



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-19107.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Nebraska.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Sacramento St. (293.0)BSkyH83-61W100%0.0
11-19Louisiana Tech (116.0)CUSAH65-54W100%0.0
11-24Dayton (30.0)A10N80-78W100%0.0
11-25UCLA (16.0)P12N82-71L0%0.0
11-27Virginia Tech (48.0)ACCN53-66L0%0.0
11-30Clemson (69.0)ACCA60-58L0%0.0
12-3South Dakota (123.0)SumH73-61W100%0.0
12-7Creighton (26.0)BEH62-77L0%0.0
12-10Kansas (4.0)B12A89-72L0%0.0
12-18Gardner Webb (186.0)BSthH62-70L0%0.0
12-20Southern (320.0)SWACH81-76W100%0.0
12-28Indiana (79.0)B10A83-87W100%0.0
1-1Maryland (36.0)B10A65-67W100%0.0
1-5Iowa (81.0)B10H93-90W100%0.0
1-8Northwestern (50.0)B10H66-74L0%0.0
1-14Michigan (25.0)B10A91-85L0%0.0
1-18Ohio St. (90.0)B10H66-67L0%0.0
1-21Rutgers (177.0)B10A65-64L0%0.0
1-26Northwestern (50.0)B10A73-61L0%0.0
1-29Purdue (19.0)B10H83-80W100%0.0
2-2Michigan St. (51.0)B10H61-72L0%0.0
2-5Iowa (81.0)B10A81-70L0%0.0
2-9Wisconsin (35.0)B10H69-70L0%0.0
2-14Penn St. (101.0)B10H82-66W100%0.0
2-18Ohio St. (90.0)B10A57-58W100%0.0
2-23Michigan St. (51.0)B10A88-72L0%0.0
2-26Illinois (62.0)B10H57-73L0%0.0
3-2Minnesota (20.0)B10A88-73L0%0.0
3-5Michigan (25.0)B10H57-93L0%0.0
3-8Penn St. (101.0)B10N67-76L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Nebraska's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Nebraska's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Nebraska.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
NebraskaB1026.0826.0833.1033.10-8.82-8.82
MichiganB104.054.0566.6766.671.351.35
Michigan St.B103.993.9954.8454.840.390.39
NorthwesternB103.983.9865.6265.621.241.24
Penn St.B103.953.9545.1645.16-0.38-0.38
Ohio St.B103.943.9453.3353.330.260.26
IowaB103.903.9056.6756.670.520.52
WisconsinB102.452.4572.7372.731.111.11
RutgersB102.432.4341.9441.94-0.39-0.39
MinnesotaB102.432.4371.8871.881.061.06
IndianaB102.422.4256.2556.250.300.30
PurdueB102.402.4080.6580.651.471.47
IllinoisB102.402.4053.3353.330.160.16
MarylandB102.352.3576.6776.671.261.26
UCLAP121.771.7787.5087.501.321.32
Virginia TechACC1.771.7767.7467.740.630.63
ClemsonACC1.721.7251.6151.610.060.06
DaytonA101.721.7279.3179.311.011.01
South DakotaSum1.701.7066.6766.670.570.57
Sacramento St.BSky1.691.6939.2939.29-0.36-0.36
KansasB121.691.6987.1087.101.261.26
CreightonBE1.691.6971.8871.880.740.74
Gardner WebbBSth1.671.6751.7251.720.060.06
Louisiana TechCUSA1.671.6770.0070.000.670.67
SouthernSWAC1.671.6744.8344.83-0.17-0.17
DukeACC0.210.2177.1477.140.110.11
VirginiaACC0.180.1868.7568.750.070.07
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.180.1821.8821.88-0.10-0.10
Notre DameACC0.180.1873.5373.530.080.08
IUPUISum0.180.1840.0040.00-0.04-0.04
St. John'sBE0.180.1842.4242.42-0.03-0.03
PittsburghACC0.160.1648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.160.1651.6151.610.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.160.1675.7675.760.080.08
Wake ForestACC0.150.1559.3859.380.030.03
TexasB120.150.1533.3333.33-0.05-0.05
WinthropBSth0.140.1480.0080.000.080.08
High PointBSth0.140.1442.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.140.1441.3841.38-0.02-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.130.1370.0070.000.050.05
BaylorB120.130.1377.4277.420.070.07
North Carolina St.ACC0.130.1346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.130.1321.4321.43-0.07-0.07
Seton HallBE0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
ProvidenceBE0.130.1362.5062.500.030.03
ArizonaP120.130.1388.2488.240.100.10
DePaulBE0.130.1328.1228.12-0.05-0.05
ButlerBE0.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
MarquetteBE0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
Montana St.BSky0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.110.1167.8667.860.040.04
DavidsonA100.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
UABCUSA0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Kansas St.B120.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.110.1123.0823.08-0.06-0.06
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
DuquesneA100.110.1131.2531.25-0.04-0.04
MarshallCUSA0.110.1155.8855.880.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
Washington St.P120.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Iowa St.B120.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
Miami FLACC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
LouisvilleACC0.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
OklahomaB120.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
HowardMEAC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
GeorgetownBE0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
Arizona St.P120.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
VillanovaBE0.100.1091.1891.180.080.08
XavierBE0.100.1061.7661.760.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.100.1037.5037.50-0.03-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
MontanaBSky0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
DenverSum0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Idaho St.BSky0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
VMISC0.080.0814.2914.29-0.06-0.06
LibertyBSth0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.080.0814.2914.29-0.06-0.06
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
PortlandWCC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.080.0821.4321.43-0.05-0.05
Fort WayneSum0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
West VirginiaB120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
George MasonA100.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
George WashingtonA100.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
UMKCWAC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0828.1228.12-0.03-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
TCUB120.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0876.6776.670.040.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
SyracuseACC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
USCP120.080.0872.7372.730.030.03
FurmanSC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
SMUAmer0.080.0888.2488.240.060.06
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.070.0710.3410.34-0.06-0.06
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0612.9012.90-0.04-0.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.066.906.90-0.05-0.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0620.0020.00-0.03-0.03
CampbellBSth0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0610.7110.71-0.04-0.04
RadfordBSth0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
Saint LouisA100.060.0636.3636.36-0.02-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
RichmondA100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
PacificWCC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
FordhamA100.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
CaliforniaP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
NavyPat0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
NJITASun0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
AlbanyAE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
ColgatePat0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
OregonP120.050.0584.8584.850.040.04
Oregon St.P120.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
WashingtonP120.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
Wright St.Horz0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
BryantNEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
IdahoBSky0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
UC DavisBW0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
MassachusettsA100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
TulaneAmer0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
AmericanPat0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.030.0396.9796.970.030.03
HofstraCAA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
MissouriSEC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
TowsonCAA0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
HartfordAE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
MercerSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
UNLVMWC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0318.5218.52-0.02-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
UtahP120.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00