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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Nebraska

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:94.1
Current RPI:78
Expected SOS:11
Current SOS:33
Current Record:3-3
Expected Record:13-16
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:3-3
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:71
Expected OOC SOS:10



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-87.00.01%
20-912.00.02%
19-1023.10.23%
18-1128.60.80%
17-1237.52.34%
16-1347.45.48%
15-1459.09.89%
14-1572.715.97%
13-1687.418.21%
12-17102.718.06%
11-18118.614.17%
10-19136.38.71%
9-20153.04.37%
8-21173.41.41%
7-22190.50.24%
6-23203.80.08%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Nebraska.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Sacramento St. (337.5)BSkyH83-61W100%0.0
11-19Louisiana Tech (111.7)CUSAH65-54W100%0.0
11-24Dayton (36.4)A10N80-78W100%0.0
11-25UCLA (19.0)P12A82-71L0%0.0
11-27Virginia Tech (64.9)ACCN53-66L0%0.0
11-30Clemson (68.2)ACCA60-58L0%0.0
12-3South Dakota (218.7)SumH0-087%13.5
12-7Creighton (25.4)BEH0-030%-6.5
12-10Kansas (7.5)B12A0-07%-17.6
12-18Gardner Webb (214.7)BSthH0-089%14.6
12-20Southern (238.0)SWACH0-090%15.6
12-28Indiana (20.3)B10A0-012%-14.1
1-1Maryland (99.7)B10A0-041%-2.8
1-5Iowa (164.3)B10H0-065%4.6
1-8Northwestern (60.3)B10H0-041%-2.8
1-14Michigan (45.6)B10A0-020%-10.3
1-18Ohio St. (30.8)B10H0-033%-5.1
1-21Rutgers (182.4)B10A0-059%2.6
1-26Northwestern (60.3)B10A0-023%-8.9
1-29Purdue (28.6)B10H0-026%-7.8
2-2Michigan St. (41.5)B10H0-037%-4.0
2-5Iowa (164.3)B10A0-045%-1.6
2-9Wisconsin (29.2)B10H0-025%-7.9
2-14Penn St. (136.8)B10H0-069%6.0
2-18Ohio St. (30.8)B10A0-017%-11.3
2-23Michigan St. (41.5)B10A0-020%-10.1
2-26Illinois (134.7)B10H0-066%5.0
3-2Minnesota (46.1)B10A0-026%-7.6
3-5Michigan (45.6)B10H0-037%-4.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Nebraska's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Nebraska's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Nebraska.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
NebraskaB1029.0326.1150.0040.260.00-5.08
MichiganB100.604.0971.4366.150.261.32
Ohio St.B100.004.0685.7172.530.001.83
Michigan St.B100.004.0650.0060.910.000.89
NorthwesternB100.004.0471.4366.080.001.30
IowaB100.004.0142.8644.27-0.00-0.46
WisconsinB100.002.4275.0073.810.001.15
IllinoisB100.002.4257.1442.970.00-0.34
IndianaB100.002.4283.3374.630.001.19
PurdueB100.002.4271.4374.460.001.19
MarylandB100.002.4085.7156.400.000.31
MinnesotaB100.002.4085.7165.410.000.74
RutgersB100.002.3983.3344.880.00-0.24
Penn St.B100.002.3462.5044.400.00-0.26
Virginia TechACC8.331.8483.3361.645.560.43
UCLAP128.331.84100.0083.008.331.21
ClemsonACC8.331.7860.0051.861.670.07
DaytonA108.331.7880.0075.025.000.89
South DakotaSum0.001.7657.1448.450.00-0.05
Sacramento St.BSky8.331.750.0022.11-8.33-0.98
CreightonBE0.001.75100.0076.870.000.94
KansasB120.001.7585.7175.610.000.90
Gardner WebbBSth0.001.7220.0049.76-0.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA8.331.7250.0070.370.000.70
SouthernSWAC0.001.7225.0058.67-0.000.30
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.200.0024.77-0.00-0.10
IUPUISum0.000.2028.5747.72-0.00-0.01
VirginiaACC0.000.20100.0082.550.000.13
Notre DameACC0.000.20100.0075.010.000.10
DukeACC0.000.1787.5078.680.000.10
St. John'sBE0.000.1728.5733.92-0.00-0.05
TexasB120.000.1750.0036.240.00-0.05
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.1550.0064.840.000.04
Georgia TechACC0.000.1466.6739.720.00-0.03
PittsburghACC0.000.1485.7155.550.000.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.140.0019.30-0.00-0.09
Florida St.ACC0.000.1485.7162.410.000.04
BaylorB120.000.14100.0074.460.000.07
DePaulBE0.000.1480.0035.960.00-0.04
Seton HallBE0.000.1471.4354.520.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.1471.4352.370.000.01
ButlerBE0.000.14100.0075.690.000.07
MarquetteBE0.000.1471.4363.090.000.04
Montana St.BSky0.000.1250.0062.460.000.03
WinthropBSth0.000.1260.0070.500.000.05
North DakotaBSky0.000.1233.3353.29-0.000.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.1216.6732.62-0.00-0.04
High PointBSth1.290.1250.0051.260.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.120.0042.55-0.00-0.02
Washington St.P120.000.1250.0036.820.00-0.03
HowardMEAC0.000.120.0038.26-0.00-0.03
Kansas St.B120.000.1285.7155.890.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1233.3348.73-0.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.000.1171.4365.740.000.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.1171.4350.570.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.830.110.0034.23-0.83-0.04
South CarolinaSEC0.830.11100.0080.780.830.07
GeorgetownBE0.000.1150.0047.560.00-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.1185.7175.950.000.06
North CarolinaACC0.000.1185.7180.010.000.07
ProvidenceBE0.000.1171.4356.280.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.1157.1436.050.00-0.03
OklahomaB120.690.1183.3351.920.460.00
ArizonaP120.000.1185.7170.990.000.05
Iowa St.B120.000.1171.4368.970.000.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.1128.5730.29-0.00-0.04
KentuckySEC0.000.11100.0086.250.000.08
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.1142.8637.60-0.00-0.03
MontanaBSky0.000.0914.2947.44-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.690.0933.3341.11-0.23-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.830.0914.2934.56-0.60-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.090.0032.39-0.00-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0928.5734.18-0.00-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0925.0038.72-0.00-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.000.0925.0024.66-0.00-0.05
LibertyBSth0.000.0940.0050.71-0.000.00
VMISC0.600.090.0021.15-0.60-0.05
UABCUSA0.000.0957.1461.940.000.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.0940.0030.80-0.00-0.03
VCUA100.000.0985.7178.150.000.05
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0966.6751.460.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.690.0966.6754.380.230.01
DuquesneA100.000.0937.5034.65-0.00-0.03
Fort WayneSum0.000.0966.6770.930.000.04
PortlandWCC1.220.0960.0057.170.240.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.090.0022.69-0.00-0.05
FurmanSC0.000.0920.0049.38-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.000.0957.1469.300.000.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0914.2928.66-0.00-0.04
DavidsonA100.690.0983.3368.880.460.03
UMKCWAC0.000.0971.4356.050.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0950.0027.250.00-0.04
XavierBE0.690.09100.0074.800.690.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0920.0034.39-0.00-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0950.0071.330.000.04
MarshallCUSA0.000.0983.3359.600.000.02
SyracuseACC0.000.0966.6770.140.000.03
VillanovaBE0.000.09100.0083.120.000.06
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0820.0034.22-0.00-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0883.3356.560.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0883.3380.550.000.05
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0814.2929.15-0.00-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.000.080.0017.30-0.00-0.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0816.6736.35-0.00-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.080.0038.51-0.00-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0812.5048.98-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0614.2928.15-0.00-0.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0616.6740.71-0.00-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.0625.0040.37-0.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.060.0023.26-0.00-0.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0013.30-0.00-0.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.060.0024.25-0.00-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0633.3327.13-0.00-0.03
RadfordBSth0.000.0633.3336.31-0.00-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0657.1467.020.000.02
CampbellBSth0.000.0625.0033.54-0.00-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0650.0056.430.000.01
ColoradoP120.690.0671.4359.850.300.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0614.2929.81-0.00-0.02
PacificWCC1.220.0650.0049.010.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0650.0061.810.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0671.4370.330.000.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0685.7169.010.000.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0614.2937.52-0.00-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0633.3323.33-0.00-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.000.0666.6770.740.000.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.0625.0043.26-0.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0628.5728.46-0.00-0.03
Saint LouisA100.000.0633.3326.75-0.00-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0023.46-0.00-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.690.0666.6756.020.230.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0666.6751.090.000.00
FordhamA100.000.0657.1443.680.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC1.290.0671.4358.670.550.01
RichmondA100.000.0657.1448.600.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.690.0640.0041.65-0.14-0.01
CaliforniaP120.830.0683.3363.610.560.02
George MasonA100.000.0657.1442.940.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0657.1444.160.00-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0666.6761.340.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0657.1448.860.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.000.0671.4346.010.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.0616.6733.82-0.00-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0616.6737.09-0.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0650.0038.430.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC1.120.0666.6766.100.370.02
BryantNEC0.000.0628.5750.20-0.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0633.3338.76-0.00-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.520.060.0039.35-0.52-0.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0685.7159.740.000.01
NavyPat0.000.0628.5743.62-0.00-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0625.0030.93-0.00-0.02
NJITASun0.000.0642.8650.32-0.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0666.6775.370.000.03
NortheasternCAA0.000.0657.1448.240.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0640.0057.49-0.000.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0683.3378.430.000.03
OregonP120.000.0671.4366.730.000.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0628.5723.76-0.00-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.060.0024.19-0.00-0.03
StanfordP120.000.0675.0059.100.000.01
StetsonASun0.000.0628.5728.26-0.00-0.02
TCUB120.000.06100.0059.480.000.01
Texas TechB120.000.0685.7163.780.000.02
USCP120.000.06100.0075.380.000.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0625.0024.28-0.00-0.03
WashingtonP120.000.0657.1452.630.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0616.6718.96-0.00-0.03
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0671.4386.030.000.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0325.0053.29-0.000.00
IdahoBSky0.000.0340.0050.88-0.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.690.0383.3350.740.460.00
UC DavisBW0.690.0357.1448.410.10-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.0320.0054.94-0.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0350.0055.850.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.030.0034.18-0.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0380.0068.320.000.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0058.600.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0314.2926.81-0.00-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0333.3343.64-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.000.030.0021.30-0.00-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0383.3380.700.000.02
FIUCUSA0.000.0316.6733.69-0.00-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.03100.0091.060.000.02
HofstraCAA0.000.0357.1440.550.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0383.3376.370.000.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.0350.0051.820.000.00
La SalleA100.000.0360.0051.780.000.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0383.3358.080.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0385.7173.010.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0366.6765.810.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0350.0046.780.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.690.03100.0089.040.690.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0342.8634.17-0.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0383.3369.840.000.01
AmericanPat0.000.0316.6735.65-0.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0340.0050.91-0.000.00
BYUWCC0.000.0371.4368.660.000.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0340.0037.65-0.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0366.6756.360.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0018.22-0.00-0.02
DetroitHorz0.000.030.0019.51-0.00-0.02
DrexelCAA0.000.0342.8636.82-0.00-0.01
HartfordAE0.000.0312.5022.55-0.00-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0357.1447.320.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.000.0333.3340.49-0.00-0.01
MaineAE0.600.0316.6725.61-0.40-0.01
MercerSC0.000.0350.0053.050.000.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0350.0045.920.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0316.6727.03-0.00-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0350.0052.140.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0360.0052.760.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0027.77-0.00-0.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0340.0027.05-0.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0350.0054.490.000.00
UMBCAE0.000.0380.0055.340.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0383.3377.170.000.02
AlbanyAE0.000.0350.0060.380.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0383.3362.840.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0385.7168.390.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0383.3355.200.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.520.0316.6743.29-0.35-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0385.7180.960.000.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0316.6730.27-0.00-0.01
ColgatePat0.000.0320.0041.31-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0350.0045.410.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0360.0067.410.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0350.0056.260.000.00
Green BayHorz0.000.0333.3348.71-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0383.3357.990.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0020.01-0.00-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0320.0041.93-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.030.0038.35-0.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0342.8645.30-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.520.0328.5727.50-0.22-0.01
SienaMAAC0.000.0328.5750.51-0.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0357.1440.590.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0350.0046.670.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0325.0034.47-0.00-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.520.030.0033.43-0.52-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.030.0033.44-0.00-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0325.0040.81-0.00-0.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0371.4349.590.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0357.1464.940.000.01
UtahP120.000.0375.0061.040.000.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0350.0053.560.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0316.6736.45-0.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0371.4355.750.000.00