Nebraska

Conference:	B10
Expected RPI:	154.0
Current RPI:	154
Expected SOS:	46
Current SOS:	46
Current Record:	12-18
Expected Record:	12-18
Current Conf Record:	4-15
Expected Conf Record:	4-15
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	1-8
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	6-0
Current OOC Record:	8-3
Expected OOC Record:	8-3
Expected OOC RPI:	126
Expected OOC SOS:	243

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
12-18	154.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Nebraska.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	South Dakota (291.0)	Sum	H	65-48	W	100%
11-14	Southern California (270.0)	P12	A	61-64	W	100%
11-20	Rhode Island (257.0)	A10	H	83-63	W	100%
11-23	Oregon (67.0)	P12	H	76-83	L	0%
11-26	South Dakota St. (42.0)	Sum	H	76-64	W	100%
11-30	Wake Forest (183.0)	ACC	H	53-55	L	0%
12-4	Creighton (24.0)	MVC	A	76-66	L	0%
12-7	Florida Gulf Coast (208.0)	ASun	H	51-50	W	100%
12-10	Texas Christian (114.0)	MWC	A	57-69	W	100%
12-17	Alcorn St. (335.0)	SWAC	H	60-46	W	100%
12-20	Central Michigan (280.0)	MAC	H	72-69	W	100%
12-27	Wisconsin (23.0)	B10	H	40-64	L	0%
12-31	Michigan St. (4.0)	B10	H	55-68	L	0%
1-3	Ohio St. (7.0)	B10	A	71-40	L	0%
1-7	Illinois (92.0)	B10	A	59-54	L	0%
1-11	Penn St. (161.0)	B10	H	70-58	W	100%
1-15	Wisconsin (23.0)	B10	A	50-45	L	0%
1-18	Indiana (17.0)	B10	H	70-69	W	100%
1-21	Ohio St. (7.0)	B10	H	45-79	L	0%
1-26	Iowa (130.0)	B10	A	73-79	W	100%
2-2	Northwestern (63.0)	B10	A	84-74	L	0%
2-5	Minnesota (89.0)	B10	H	61-69	L	0%
2-8	Michigan (14.0)	B10	H	46-62	L	0%
2-11	Penn St. (161.0)	B10	A	67-51	L	0%
2-18	Illinois (92.0)	B10	H	80-57	W	100%
2-22	Purdue (48.0)	B10	A	83-65	L	0%
2-25	Michigan St. (4.0)	B10	A	62-34	L	0%
2-29	Iowa (130.0)	B10	H	53-62	L	0%
3-3	Minnesota (89.0)	B10	A	81-69	L	0%
3-8	Purdue (48.0)	B10	N	79-61	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Nebraska's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Nebraska's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Nebraska.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Nebraska	B10	26.19	26.19	35.29	35.29	-7.70	-7.70
Michigan St.	B10	4.17	4.17	77.42	77.42	2.29	2.29
Minnesota	B10	4.15	4.15	54.84	54.84	0.40	0.40
Iowa	B10	4.15	4.15	51.61	51.61	0.13	0.13
Wisconsin	B10	4.15	4.15	70.97	70.97	1.74	1.74
Ohio St.	B10	4.13	4.13	78.12	78.12	2.32	2.32
Purdue	B10	4.10	4.10	61.29	61.29	0.93	0.93
Illinois	B10	4.07	4.07	53.33	53.33	0.27	0.27
Penn St.	B10	4.02	4.02	36.67	36.67	-1.07	-1.07
Indiana	B10	2.56	2.56	78.12	78.12	1.44	1.44
Michigan	B10	2.53	2.53	70.97	70.97	1.06	1.06
Northwestern	B10	2.53	2.53	56.67	56.67	0.34	0.34
South Dakota St.	Sum	1.78	1.78	80.65	80.65	1.09	1.09
Southern California	P12	1.77	1.77	19.35	19.35	-1.09	-1.09
Creighton	MVC	1.74	1.74	84.38	84.38	1.20	1.20
Texas Christian	MWC	1.72	1.72	55.17	55.17	0.18	0.18
South Dakota	Sum	1.72	1.72	29.17	29.17	-0.72	-0.72
Central Michigan	MAC	1.72	1.72	33.33	33.33	-0.57	-0.57
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	1.69	1.69	46.67	46.67	-0.11	-0.11
Oregon	P12	1.69	1.69	70.00	70.00	0.68	0.68
Alcorn St.	SWAC	1.67	1.67	25.93	25.93	-0.80	-0.80
Rhode Island	A10	1.67	1.67	23.33	23.33	-0.89	-0.89
Wake Forest	ACC	1.67	1.67	40.00	40.00	-0.33	-0.33
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.22	0.22	29.63	29.63	-0.09	-0.09
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.22	0.22	31.03	31.03	-0.08	-0.08
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.18	0.18	75.00	75.00	0.09	0.09
Duke	ACC	0.18	0.18	81.82	81.82	0.11	0.11
Western Illinois	Sum	0.17	0.17	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.17	0.17	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.17	0.17	45.45	45.45	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.15	0.15	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.15	0.15	13.79	13.79	-0.11	-0.11
IUPUI	Sum	0.14	0.14	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Southern Utah	Sum	0.14	0.14	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Oakland	Sum	0.14	0.14	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.14	0.14	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.14	0.14	63.64	63.64	0.04	0.04
Boston College	ACC	0.13	0.13	29.03	29.03	-0.06	-0.06
Maryland	ACC	0.13	0.13	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Washington	P12	0.13	0.13	67.74	67.74	0.05	0.05
UCLA	P12	0.13	0.13	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Western Michigan	MAC	0.13	0.13	39.39	39.39	-0.03	-0.03
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.13	0.13	60.00	60.00	0.03	0.03
Evansville	MVC	0.13	0.13	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.13	0.13	85.29	85.29	0.09	0.09
Chicago St.	GWC	0.13	0.13	10.71	10.71	-0.10	-0.10
Illinois St.	MVC	0.13	0.13	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Bradley	MVC	0.13	0.13	21.88	21.88	-0.07	-0.07
Drake	MVC	0.13	0.13	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.12	0.12	81.82	81.82	0.08	0.08
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.11	0.11	20.00	20.00	-0.07	-0.07
Virginia	ACC	0.11	0.11	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
Toledo	MAC	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
San Diego St.	MWC	0.11	0.11	77.42	77.42	0.06	0.06
Colorado	P12	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Mercer	ASun	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Boise St.	MWC	0.11	0.11	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Arizona St.	P12	0.11	0.11	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
California	P12	0.11	0.11	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Lipscomb	ASun	0.11	0.11	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Richmond	A10	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.11	0.11	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Stanford	P12	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Washington St.	P12	0.11	0.11	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.10	0.10	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Dayton	A10	0.10	0.10	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.10	0.10	6.67	6.67	-0.09	-0.09
Miami FL	ACC	0.10	0.10	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Temple	A10	0.10	0.10	77.42	77.42	0.06	0.06
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.10	0.10	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.10	0.10	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Cornell	Ivy	0.10	0.10	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.10	0.10	25.00	25.00	-0.05	-0.05
Iowa St.	B12	0.10	0.10	68.75	68.75	0.04	0.04
North Florida	ASun	0.10	0.10	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	38.46	38.46	-0.02	-0.02
Gonzaga	WCC	0.10	0.10	80.65	80.65	0.06	0.06
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.10	0.10	27.59	27.59	-0.05	-0.05
Indiana St.	MVC	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.10	0.10	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.10	0.10	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Wyoming	MWC	0.09	0.09	62.07	62.07	0.02	0.02
Grambling	SWAC	0.09	0.09	14.29	14.29	-0.06	-0.06
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.09	0.09	19.23	19.23	-0.05	-0.05
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.09	0.09	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Colorado St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
New Mexico	MWC	0.08	0.08	81.25	81.25	0.05	0.05
Belmont	ASun	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.08	0.08	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Tulsa	CUSA	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Utah	P12	0.08	0.08	16.67	16.67	-0.05	-0.05
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.08	0.08	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.08	0.08	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
Stetson	ASun	0.08	0.08	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Arizona	P12	0.08	0.08	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Duquesne	A10	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Brigham Young	WCC	0.08	0.08	74.19	74.19	0.04	0.04
Brown	Ivy	0.08	0.08	23.33	23.33	-0.04	-0.04
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.08	0.08	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
High Point	BSth	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Wofford	SC	0.08	0.08	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Xavier	A10	0.08	0.08	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.08	0.08	94.12	94.12	0.07	0.07
Lamar	Slnd	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Wright St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Butler	Horz	0.08	0.08	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.08	0.08	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Kansas	B12	0.08	0.08	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
South Carolina	SEC	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Canisius	MAAC	0.07	0.07	16.67	16.67	-0.04	-0.04
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Kent St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.06	0.06	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Jacksonville	ASun	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Maine	AE	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.05	0.05	65.38	65.38	0.02	0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.05	64.29	64.29	0.02	0.02
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Stony Brook	AE	0.05	0.05	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Hartford	AE	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Lafayette	Pat	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Long Island	NEC	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Missouri	B12	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
North Dakota	GWC	0.05	0.05	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.05	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.05	0.05	32.00	32.00	-0.02	-0.02
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Appalachian St.	SC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Bucknell	Pat	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.05	0.05	23.08	23.08	-0.03	-0.03
Colgate	Pat	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Lehigh	Pat	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.05	16.13	16.13	-0.03	-0.03
Western Carolina	SC	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Wichita St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	83.87	83.87	0.03	0.03
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Valparaiso	Horz	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Morehead St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	34.62	34.62	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	B12	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Tulane	CUSA	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
West Virginia	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Houston	CUSA	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Baylor	B12	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Boston University	AE	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Central Florida	CUSA	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Fresno St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
George Washington	A10	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia St.	CAA	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Longwood	ind	0.03	0.03	22.22	22.22	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Pepperdine	WCC	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Providence	BE	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Texas	B12	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
UC Irvine	BW	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Cal Poly	BW	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.03	0.03	19.23	19.23	-0.02	-0.02
Memphis	CUSA	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.03	0.03	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Towson	CAA	0.03	0.03	3.12	3.12	-0.02	-0.02
UC Riverside	BW	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.03	0.03	25.93	25.93	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Notre Dame	BE	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00