Hampton

Conference:	MEAC
Expected RPI:	307.2
Current RPI:	322
Expected SOS:	338
Current SOS:	343
Current Record:	8-14
Expected Record:	12-18
Current Conf Record:	4-5
Expected Conf Record:	7-9
Probability of Auto Bid:	1.92%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	11-11
Current OOC Record:	4-9
Expected OOC Record:	4-10
Expected OOC RPI:	312
Expected OOC SOS:	325

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
16-14	254.3	0.06%
15-15	270.2	1.03%
14-16	283.3	5.39%
13-17	293.8	16.99%
12-18	303.0	27.14%
11-19	312.7	28.43%
10-20	321.9	15.42%
9-21	329.9	4.95%
8-22	334.6	0.58%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Hampton.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-12	William & Mary (304.7)	CAA	H	73-58	W	100%	0.0
11-17	Richmond (135.3)	A10	A	72-51	L	0%	0.0
11-20	Rutgers (141.7)	BE	A	66-52	L	0%	0.0
11-22	Sacred Heart (242.3)	NEC	N	71-78	L	0%	0.0
11-23	SIU Edwardsville (304.4)	OVC	N	68-64	W	100%	0.0
11-29	High Point (283.4)	BSth	H	68-64	W	100%	0.0
12-1	Savannah St. (214.3)	MEAC	H	49-65	L	0%	0.0
12-4	Howard (313.9)	MEAC	N	53-71	W	100%	0.0
12-5	Fordham (243.2)	A10	A	54-53	L	0%	0.0
12-7	American (150.9)	Pat	A	74-72	L	0%	0.0
12-17	Liberty (309.6)	BSth	A	74-65	L	0%	0.0
12-20	Robert Morris (111.2)	NEC	A	64-54	L	0%	0.0
12-29	Utah Valley (222.0)	GWC	N	40-42	L	0%	0.0
12-30	Longwood (311.5)	ind	N	82-79	W	100%	0.0
1-7	Howard (313.9)	MEAC	H	57-55	W	100%	0.0
1-9	James Madison (251.6)	CAA	A	74-67	L	0%	0.0
1-14	Coppin St. (214.5)	MEAC	A	83-66	L	0%	0.0
1-16	Morgan St. (264.2)	MEAC	A	68-56	L	0%	0.0
1-21	Norfolk St. (131.7)	MEAC	H	75-80	L	0%	0.0
1-24	South Carolina St. (337.8)	MEAC	H	78-66	W	100%	0.0
1-28	Coppin St. (214.5)	MEAC	H	70-73	L	0%	0.0
1-30	Morgan St. (264.2)	MEAC	H	68-63	W	100%	0.0
2-6	Delaware St. (279.9)	MEAC	A	0-0		33%	-4.8
2-11	Norfolk St. (131.7)	MEAC	H	0-0		37%	-3.8
2-15	Maryland Eastern Shore (319.1)	MEAC	H	0-0		81%	9.5
2-18	Delaware (183.1)	CAA	A	0-0		15%	-11.4
2-20	Delaware St. (279.9)	MEAC	H	0-0		57%	1.9
2-25	Florida A&M (329.2)	MEAC	A	0-0		57%	2.0
2-27	Bethune Cookman (260.5)	MEAC	A	0-0		33%	-4.9
3-1	North Carolina Central (240.5)	MEAC	H	0-0		42%	-2.1

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Hampton's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Hampton's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Hampton.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Hampton	MEAC	26.49	26.20	34.09	36.96	-8.43	-6.83
Howard	MEAC	4.92	4.01	20.00	23.93	-2.95	-2.09
Norfolk St.	MEAC	2.95	3.98	66.67	68.78	0.98	1.50
Morgan St.	MEAC	4.88	3.98	22.22	36.62	-2.71	-1.06
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.15	3.96	35.29	38.58	-0.05	-0.90
Coppin St.	MEAC	4.98	3.93	35.29	45.45	-1.46	-0.36
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.20	2.43	20.00	19.99	-0.12	-1.46
South Carolina St.	MEAC	2.83	2.27	10.53	15.48	-2.23	-1.57
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.11	2.18	38.10	41.91	-0.03	-0.35
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.34	2.18	38.89	43.38	-0.07	-0.29
Savannah St.	MEAC	2.77	2.18	50.00	56.36	0.00	0.28
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.11	2.18	19.05	21.61	-0.07	-1.24
William & Mary	CAA	2.62	1.90	13.04	13.91	-1.93	-1.37
Delaware	CAA	0.20	1.84	47.83	49.42	-0.01	-0.02
Liberty	BSth	2.47	1.84	23.81	24.51	-1.29	-0.94
Richmond	A10	2.57	1.84	47.83	46.77	-0.11	-0.12
Longwood	ind	2.33	1.78	31.58	28.92	-0.86	-0.75
American	Pat	2.42	1.78	63.64	62.50	0.66	0.45
James Madison	CAA	2.41	1.78	37.50	38.19	-0.60	-0.42
Sacred Heart	NEC	2.41	1.77	41.67	44.08	-0.40	-0.21
Robert Morris	NEC	2.36	1.75	66.67	69.03	0.79	0.66
Rutgers	BE	2.37	1.72	47.83	45.04	-0.10	-0.17
High Point	BSth	2.32	1.70	33.33	34.01	-0.77	-0.54
Fordham	A10	2.32	1.69	38.10	32.16	-0.55	-0.60
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	2.27	1.67	27.78	30.94	-1.01	-0.64
Utah Valley	GWC	2.27	1.67	52.38	56.06	0.11	0.20
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.34	0.64	33.33	37.25	-0.11	-0.16
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.27	0.31	50.00	51.73	0.00	0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.25	0.26	66.67	69.69	0.08	0.10
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.32	0.24	34.78	38.77	-0.10	-0.05
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.38	0.24	62.50	62.49	0.10	0.06
Old Dominion	CAA	0.29	0.22	60.00	58.29	0.06	0.04
Drexel	CAA	0.10	0.22	79.17	78.10	0.06	0.13
Towson	CAA	0.17	0.21	4.00	5.26	-0.15	-0.18
George Washington	A10	0.14	0.20	34.78	32.08	-0.04	-0.07
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.25	0.20	56.52	55.95	0.03	0.02
Charlotte	A10	0.22	0.18	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Navy	Pat	0.16	0.18	9.52	13.19	-0.13	-0.13
Lehigh	Pat	0.20	0.17	73.91	74.91	0.10	0.09
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.19	0.17	39.13	36.10	-0.04	-0.05
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.17	0.16	56.52	53.10	0.02	0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.11	0.15	39.13	42.12	-0.02	-0.02
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.16	0.15	33.33	38.38	-0.05	-0.03
Radford	BSth	0.15	0.15	8.70	13.10	-0.13	-0.11
Wagner	NEC	0.09	0.15	82.61	84.57	0.06	0.10
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.16	0.15	45.00	44.15	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.16	0.15	62.50	62.06	0.04	0.04
Notre Dame	BE	0.09	0.14	65.22	62.65	0.03	0.04
Georgetown	BE	0.25	0.14	80.95	77.38	0.16	0.08
Marquette	BE	0.10	0.14	79.17	75.98	0.06	0.07
Northeastern	CAA	0.09	0.14	47.83	48.56	-0.00	-0.00
George Mason	CAA	0.14	0.14	76.00	72.50	0.07	0.06
Hofstra	CAA	0.09	0.14	32.00	35.39	-0.03	-0.04
La Salle	A10	0.09	0.14	70.83	68.82	0.04	0.05
Long Island	NEC	0.14	0.14	70.83	71.05	0.06	0.06
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.19	0.14	80.00	78.06	0.11	0.08
Monmouth	NEC	0.24	0.14	28.00	28.91	-0.10	-0.06
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.19	0.14	56.52	57.15	0.02	0.02
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.09	0.14	21.74	22.76	-0.05	-0.07
Illinois	B10	0.23	0.13	72.73	64.43	0.10	0.04
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.17	0.13	60.87	59.76	0.04	0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.11	0.12	45.45	46.99	-0.01	-0.01
Seattle	ind	0.10	0.12	23.53	33.28	-0.05	-0.04
Campbell	BSth	0.10	0.12	56.00	55.65	0.01	0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.10	0.12	55.00	60.33	0.01	0.03
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.10	0.12	72.22	71.97	0.05	0.05
NC Asheville	BSth	0.21	0.12	68.18	67.64	0.08	0.04
Presbyterian	BSth	0.15	0.12	40.91	43.66	-0.03	-0.02
Winthrop	BSth	0.21	0.12	34.78	34.61	-0.06	-0.04
Indiana	B10	0.16	0.12	75.00	75.78	0.08	0.06
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.05	0.12	25.00	28.52	-0.03	-0.05
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.21	0.12	13.64	16.35	-0.15	-0.08
Xavier	A10	0.17	0.12	65.22	63.74	0.05	0.03
Stetson	ASun	0.10	0.11	31.82	31.31	-0.04	-0.04
Rider	MAAC	0.19	0.11	37.50	38.52	-0.05	-0.03
Lafayette	Pat	0.09	0.11	43.48	42.95	-0.01	-0.02
Temple	A10	0.10	0.11	77.27	75.06	0.05	0.06
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.19	0.11	8.70	12.13	-0.16	-0.08
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.19	0.11	26.09	28.60	-0.09	-0.05
Rhode Island	A10	0.14	0.11	20.83	20.60	-0.08	-0.07
Bryant	NEC	0.05	0.11	8.33	10.86	-0.04	-0.08
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.14	0.11	45.45	45.70	-0.01	-0.01
Purdue	B10	0.17	0.10	65.22	60.58	0.05	0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.18	0.10	59.09	54.70	0.03	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.00	0.10	70.83	64.42	0.00	0.03
Chicago St.	GWC	0.05	0.10	4.76	9.95	-0.05	-0.08
Connecticut	BE	0.17	0.09	68.18	63.99	0.06	0.03
Murray St.	OVC	0.17	0.09	100.00	94.55	0.17	0.08
North Dakota	GWC	0.05	0.09	33.33	41.31	-0.02	-0.02
Wyoming	MWC	0.10	0.09	76.19	70.73	0.05	0.04
Chattanooga	SC	0.16	0.09	27.27	35.02	-0.07	-0.03
Virginia	ACC	0.11	0.09	81.82	76.80	0.07	0.05
Wake Forest	ACC	0.10	0.09	47.83	43.66	-0.00	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.10	0.09	72.73	68.28	0.05	0.03
Army	Pat	0.11	0.09	40.91	41.72	-0.02	-0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.05	0.09	45.83	46.68	-0.00	-0.01
Brown	Ivy	0.15	0.09	27.27	23.80	-0.07	-0.05
Ohio	MAC	0.16	0.09	81.82	77.20	0.10	0.05
Colgate	Pat	0.15	0.09	30.43	29.50	-0.06	-0.04
Seton Hall	BE	0.06	0.08	65.22	63.74	0.02	0.02
Bucknell	Pat	0.10	0.08	73.91	75.00	0.05	0.04
Holy Cross	Pat	0.09	0.08	40.91	42.05	-0.02	-0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.10	0.08	60.00	59.06	0.02	0.02
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.08	45.45	46.08	-0.00	-0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.15	0.08	60.87	58.16	0.03	0.01
St. John's	BE	0.10	0.08	43.48	40.28	-0.01	-0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.09	0.08	59.09	56.35	0.02	0.01
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.09	0.08	54.55	56.84	0.01	0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.06	0.07	33.33	34.47	-0.02	-0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.12	0.07	34.78	38.42	-0.04	-0.02
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.12	0.07	77.27	73.45	0.07	0.03
San Jose St.	WAC	0.12	0.07	27.27	26.95	-0.05	-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.06	0.07	47.62	47.18	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.06	5.26	7.30	-0.05	-0.05
Georgia	SEC	0.00	0.06	45.45	41.20	-0.00	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	55.00	57.41	0.01	0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	35.00	40.78	-0.02	-0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.00	0.06	47.06	50.75	-0.00	0.00
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.11	0.06	34.78	35.20	-0.03	-0.02
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.05	0.06	19.05	24.61	-0.03	-0.03
Portland St.	BSky	0.05	0.06	42.86	45.80	-0.01	-0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.11	0.06	43.48	43.82	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.11	0.06	69.57	65.15	0.04	0.02
Central Florida	CUSA	0.05	0.06	71.43	66.60	0.02	0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.10	0.06	47.62	48.82	-0.00	-0.00
Cal Poly	BW	0.11	0.06	50.00	56.76	0.00	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.10	0.06	78.26	78.39	0.06	0.03
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.11	0.06	59.09	57.76	0.02	0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.11	0.06	82.61	81.44	0.07	0.04
Oregon St.	P12	0.10	0.06	63.64	63.16	0.03	0.02
Rice	CUSA	0.00	0.06	47.62	46.46	-0.00	-0.00
San Francisco	WCC	0.11	0.06	56.52	53.77	0.01	0.00
Southern California	P12	0.11	0.06	25.00	25.13	-0.06	-0.03
Auburn	SEC	0.00	0.06	56.52	48.81	0.00	-0.00
Baylor	B12	0.06	0.06	90.91	83.85	0.05	0.04
Canisius	MAAC	0.10	0.06	17.39	19.81	-0.07	-0.03
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.10	0.06	14.29	17.17	-0.07	-0.04
The Citadel	SC	0.10	0.06	9.52	11.44	-0.08	-0.04
Cornell	Ivy	0.05	0.06	36.84	41.45	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.05	0.06	17.39	22.00	-0.04	-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.00	0.06	18.18	21.13	-0.00	-0.03
Texas Christian	MWC	0.05	0.06	57.14	49.54	0.01	-0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.06	38.10	40.81	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.06	56.52	55.20	0.01	0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.05	0.06	47.37	52.87	-0.00	0.00
Providence	BE	0.05	0.06	56.52	50.27	0.01	0.00
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.06	54.55	48.60	0.00	-0.00
Dayton	A10	0.00	0.06	60.87	60.96	0.00	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.10	0.06	73.91	68.58	0.05	0.02
St. Louis	A10	0.00	0.06	77.27	77.67	0.00	0.03
Syracuse	BE	0.05	0.06	95.83	92.01	0.05	0.05
Iona	MAAC	0.09	0.05	79.17	80.10	0.06	0.03
Stony Brook	AE	0.09	0.05	66.67	68.05	0.03	0.02
West Virginia	BE	0.09	0.05	65.22	65.17	0.03	0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.06	0.03	33.33	35.97	-0.02	-0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.06	0.03	65.00	66.70	0.02	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.06	0.03	34.78	32.06	-0.02	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.06	0.03	4.35	9.66	-0.05	-0.03
East Carolina	CUSA	0.00	0.03	44.44	41.71	-0.00	-0.01
Oregon	P12	0.00	0.03	69.57	64.53	0.00	0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.06	0.03	75.00	76.00	0.03	0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.06	0.03	50.00	48.90	0.00	-0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.00	0.03	81.82	81.49	0.00	0.02
Grambling	SWAC	0.05	0.03	15.00	15.73	-0.04	-0.02
Houston	CUSA	0.05	0.03	47.62	44.63	-0.00	-0.00
Maine	AE	0.05	0.03	50.00	49.73	0.00	-0.00
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.03	59.09	59.72	0.01	0.01
Montana	BSky	0.05	0.03	70.00	73.28	0.02	0.01
Nevada	WAC	0.06	0.03	80.95	76.42	0.04	0.02
Oakland	Sum	0.05	0.03	48.00	50.21	-0.00	0.00
Utah St.	WAC	0.05	0.03	50.00	52.93	0.00	0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.06	0.03	69.57	65.87	0.02	0.01
Wofford	SC	0.05	0.03	59.09	57.93	0.01	0.00
Air Force	MWC	0.00	0.03	47.37	42.16	-0.00	-0.00
Akron	MAC	0.00	0.03	68.18	67.91	0.00	0.01
Hawaii	WAC	0.06	0.03	57.14	53.12	0.01	0.00
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.06	0.03	8.70	11.67	-0.05	-0.02
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.00	0.03	42.86	43.45	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.06	0.03	40.91	39.56	-0.01	-0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.00	0.03	45.00	46.13	-0.00	-0.00
Texas A&M	B12	0.05	0.03	52.38	46.15	0.00	-0.00
Tulane	CUSA	0.00	0.03	61.90	58.59	0.00	0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.00	0.03	34.78	37.24	-0.00	-0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.05	0.03	0.00	4.02	-0.05	-0.03
Boston University	AE	0.00	0.03	48.00	51.88	-0.00	0.00
Butler	Horz	0.05	0.03	50.00	50.80	0.00	0.00
Columbia	Ivy	0.05	0.03	55.00	54.80	0.00	0.00
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.05	0.03	36.36	39.72	-0.01	-0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.05	0.03	90.48	87.91	0.04	0.02
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.03	19.05	21.29	-0.03	-0.02
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.03	68.00	69.07	0.02	0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.05	0.03	45.45	45.55	-0.00	-0.00
St. Mary's	WCC	0.00	0.03	90.91	87.74	0.00	0.02
Stanford	P12	0.00	0.03	69.57	68.29	0.00	0.01
Texas St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	22.22	27.62	-0.03	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.03	75.00	73.97	0.03	0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.03	30.00	34.15	-0.02	-0.01
Missouri	B12	0.05	0.03	91.30	87.18	0.04	0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.03	30.43	26.44	-0.02	-0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.03	69.57	65.47	0.02	0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.03	81.82	80.43	0.03	0.02
Davidson	SC	0.05	0.03	76.19	76.76	0.02	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.03	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.00
Detroit	Horz	0.00	0.03	47.83	49.03	-0.00	-0.00
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.05	0.03	52.38	52.86	0.00	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.03	82.61	77.63	0.03	0.01
Hartford	AE	0.05	0.03	17.39	20.97	-0.03	-0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.03	71.43	69.05	0.02	0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.03	54.17	54.75	0.00	0.00
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.05	0.03	59.09	57.28	0.01	0.00
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.03	78.26	72.66	0.03	0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.05	0.03	69.57	71.51	0.02	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.03	65.00	60.02	0.01	0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.05	0.03	34.78	33.46	-0.01	-0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.05	0.03	35.00	38.58	-0.01	-0.01
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.03	21.74	24.58	-0.03	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.03	54.55	56.79	0.00	0.00
Yale	Ivy	0.05	0.03	72.22	63.19	0.02	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.03	50.00	51.53	0.00	0.00