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Through games of Dec 16, 2014.


Hampton

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:250.6
Current RPI:289
Expected SOS:339
Current SOS:336
Current Record:4-5
Expected Record:14-15
Current Conf Record:2-0
Expected Conf Record:10-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-7
Current OOC Record:2-5
Expected OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC RPI:257
Expected OOC SOS:286



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-7136.00.01%
21-8132.00.06%
20-9148.20.37%
19-10168.51.27%
18-11183.24.11%
17-12202.49.04%
16-13221.314.96%
15-14241.619.37%
14-15260.318.30%
13-16278.415.57%
12-17293.79.34%
11-18307.24.99%
10-19318.11.91%
9-20325.10.48%
8-21333.80.18%
7-22340.70.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Hampton.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Iowa (46.8)B10A90-56L0%0.0
11-16Syracuse (76.1)ACCA65-47L0%0.0
11-21Alcorn St. (324.2)SWACN69-82W100%0.0
11-22North Dakota St. (169.7)SumA74-66L0%0.0
11-24Appalachian St. (270.6)SBA82-74L0%0.0
11-26American (98.4)PatH60-64L0%0.0
12-2Tennessee St. (324.1)OVCA54-62W100%0.0
12-6Coppin St. (335.6)MEACH71-52W100%0.0
12-8Morgan St. (295.3)MEACH62-58W100%0.0
12-17Illinois (46.3)B10A0-03%-22.0
12-19Tennessee St. (324.1)OVCH0-082%10.8
12-21Northern Arizona (220.1)BSkyH0-058%2.4
12-29Northern Illinois (265.1)MACA0-037%-3.9
1-3USC Upstate (181.0)ASunA0-019%-10.4
1-10Bethune Cookman (332.5)MEACA0-057%2.0
1-12Florida A&M (348.6)MEACA0-082%10.7
1-17North Carolina A&T (336.2)MEACH0-086%12.6
1-19North Carolina Central (153.3)MEACH0-042%-2.5
1-24Savannah St. (318.7)MEACA0-065%4.7
1-26South Carolina St. (278.1)MEACA0-046%-1.1
1-31Norfolk St. (178.5)MEACA0-025%-7.9
2-2NJIT (231.0)indA0-033%-5.0
2-7Maryland Eastern Shore (263.3)MEACH0-071%6.7
2-9Howard (275.8)MEACH0-071%6.7
2-16Morgan St. (295.3)MEACA0-044%-1.8
2-21Delaware St. (278.0)MEACH0-076%8.5
2-28Howard (275.8)MEACA0-042%-2.3
3-2Delaware St. (278.0)MEACA0-048%-0.5
3-5Norfolk St. (178.5)MEACH0-054%1.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Hampton's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Hampton's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Hampton.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
HamptonMEAC27.8726.1748.6554.46-0.752.33
Norfolk St.MEAC0.594.0550.0056.360.000.52
HowardMEAC0.004.0233.3343.17-0.00-0.55
Delaware St.MEAC0.003.9933.3340.63-0.00-0.75
Morgan St.MEAC5.563.9922.2238.10-3.09-0.95
Tennessee St.OVC5.563.450.0018.29-5.56-2.19
Coppin St.MEAC5.562.440.0015.07-5.56-1.70
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.002.4241.6743.73-0.00-0.30
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.002.360.0023.24-0.00-1.26
Florida A&MMEAC0.002.330.0012.91-0.00-1.73
South Carolina St.MEAC0.002.3222.2235.80-0.00-0.66
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.002.3244.4470.22-0.000.94
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.002.3020.0033.54-0.00-0.76
Savannah St.MEAC0.002.2918.1827.47-0.00-1.03
IowaB106.571.8870.0061.412.630.43
NJITind0.001.8736.3640.89-0.00-0.34
Northern ArizonaBSky0.001.8240.0049.55-0.00-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.001.8166.6764.540.000.53
IllinoisB100.591.8170.0065.390.230.56
Alcorn St.SWAC5.811.750.0033.87-5.81-0.57
AmericanPat5.561.7555.5663.890.620.49
North Dakota St.Sum5.811.7550.0054.400.000.15
Northern IllinoisMAC0.251.7550.0032.040.00-0.63
SyracuseACC5.811.7562.5055.651.450.20
Appalachian St.SB5.561.7233.3330.74-1.85-0.66
Kennesaw St.ASun1.010.2430.0028.28-0.41-0.11
St. Francis NYNEC0.350.2125.0047.42-0.17-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.2142.8655.73-0.000.02
VirginiaACC0.350.18100.0086.080.350.13
MichiganB100.310.1855.5642.720.03-0.03
Virginia TechACC0.670.1755.5638.250.07-0.04
IUPUISum0.000.1620.0026.66-0.00-0.07
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.1610.0018.39-0.00-0.10
South AlabamaSB0.000.160.0039.43-0.00-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.400.150.0013.85-0.40-0.11
StetsonASun0.000.1511.1129.36-0.00-0.06
UMBCAE0.250.1510.0021.35-0.20-0.09
North FloridaASun0.000.1550.0061.230.000.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1555.5639.260.00-0.03
Miami FLACC0.000.1590.0075.840.000.08
Morehead St.OVC0.280.1520.0047.17-0.17-0.01
DuquesneA100.000.1233.3338.84-0.00-0.03
LipscombASun0.350.1225.0042.82-0.17-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.1211.1145.10-0.00-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.1233.3339.81-0.00-0.02
FordhamA100.000.1228.5727.72-0.00-0.05
HofstraCAA0.710.1277.7877.550.390.07
Holy CrossPat0.310.1257.1452.850.040.01
MarylandB100.000.1290.9167.920.000.04
BelmontOVC0.000.1260.0062.380.000.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.350.1236.3647.60-0.09-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.690.1260.0050.220.140.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1250.0050.190.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.350.1275.0060.540.170.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.1260.0064.120.000.03
OregonP120.310.1262.5057.800.080.02
TowsonCAA0.590.1266.6751.390.200.00
VillanovaBE0.000.12100.0082.270.000.08
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1271.4367.660.000.04
Boston UniversityPat0.000.1233.3342.09-0.00-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.1237.5037.71-0.00-0.03
Ohio St.B100.000.1188.8984.020.000.08
Penn St.B100.280.1190.9154.340.230.01
NebraskaB100.000.1166.6742.930.00-0.02
NorthwesternB100.000.1166.6744.720.00-0.01
MaineAE0.000.1011.1121.00-0.00-0.06
DenverSum0.310.1044.4455.06-0.030.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1010.0040.34-0.00-0.02
AkronMAC0.310.0960.0056.480.060.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0971.4360.170.000.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0925.0033.31-0.00-0.03
TexasB120.960.0990.0081.780.770.06
SouthernSWAC0.000.090.0034.13-0.00-0.03
OhioMAC0.790.0950.0037.020.00-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0983.3366.520.000.03
LafayettePat0.000.0975.0069.750.000.04
MarquetteBE0.000.0955.5647.220.00-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0950.0058.490.000.02
TroySB0.400.0933.3341.99-0.13-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0933.3347.31-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.000.0950.0054.960.000.01
St. Francis PANEC0.280.0942.8655.87-0.040.01
North DakotaBSky0.310.0925.0033.19-0.15-0.03
ToledoMAC0.000.0955.5655.960.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.400.0977.7851.200.220.00
CornellIvy0.000.0955.5648.540.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.310.0990.9171.250.250.04
PepperdineWCC0.250.0971.4360.450.110.02
HoustonAmer0.280.0983.3358.570.190.02
UC RiversideBW0.000.0942.8644.92-0.00-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0944.4444.49-0.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.280.0960.0054.040.060.01
North CarolinaACC0.250.0970.0071.650.100.04
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0922.2231.80-0.00-0.03
BaylorB120.000.0988.8975.070.000.04
Wake ForestACC0.000.0950.0037.860.00-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0933.3359.83-0.000.02
IndianaB100.000.0980.0057.560.000.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0971.4356.890.000.01
ColgatePat0.000.0920.0042.53-0.00-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.310.0933.3326.81-0.10-0.04
NavyPat0.000.0920.0021.16-0.00-0.05
Northern IowaMVC0.280.0990.0079.360.220.05
BucknellPat0.000.0940.0036.16-0.00-0.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0870.0070.960.000.03
MinnesotaB100.000.0877.7864.850.000.02
PurdueB100.000.0872.7363.400.000.02
WisconsinB100.000.0890.9188.300.000.06
AlbanyAE0.000.0733.3348.50-0.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.000.0755.5654.360.000.01
IPFWSum0.000.0757.1456.130.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0737.5051.76-0.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0744.4444.67-0.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.0720.0040.86-0.00-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0757.1454.620.000.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0737.5031.71-0.00-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.0744.4447.41-0.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0622.2230.95-0.00-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0032.02-0.00-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0633.3363.92-0.000.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0611.1130.96-0.00-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0675.0070.980.000.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.060.0011.08-0.00-0.05
MemphisAmer0.000.0650.0059.030.000.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.060.0038.78-0.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.310.0687.5064.670.230.02
MontanaBSky0.310.0625.0050.98-0.150.00
Montana St.BSky0.310.0625.0027.78-0.15-0.03
FIUCUSA0.000.0650.0054.480.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.0650.0030.140.00-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0675.0066.870.000.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0683.3363.180.000.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0666.6772.470.000.03
Miami OHMAC0.000.0622.2227.10-0.00-0.03
RichmondA100.000.0650.0056.190.000.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0662.5054.950.000.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0657.1456.250.000.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0633.3351.71-0.000.00
CaliforniaP120.710.0690.0065.960.560.02
IdahoBSky0.000.0637.5049.62-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.0677.7871.340.000.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0642.8639.29-0.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0620.0033.83-0.00-0.02
CampbellBSth0.000.0614.2944.11-0.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0655.5665.940.000.02
DelawareCAA0.000.060.008.21-0.00-0.05
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0662.5059.380.000.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0671.4372.840.000.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0640.0044.19-0.00-0.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0666.6753.390.000.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0666.6772.270.000.03
James MadisonCAA0.000.0666.6753.260.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0642.8652.83-0.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0633.3347.11-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0642.8636.73-0.00-0.02
PennIvy0.000.0637.5032.38-0.00-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.0627.2737.98-0.00-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0662.5072.760.000.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.060.0023.06-0.00-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0644.4447.24-0.00-0.00
TCUB120.000.06100.0067.440.000.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.0657.1445.530.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0660.0047.810.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0655.5655.850.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.06100.0085.390.000.04
ClemsonACC0.000.0666.6745.880.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0687.5080.890.000.04
ArmyPat0.000.0677.7869.100.000.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0622.2230.22-0.00-0.02
ElonCAA0.280.0637.5048.77-0.07-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0616.6733.31-0.00-0.02
LehighPat0.000.0642.8651.80-0.000.00
LibertyBSth0.280.0628.5732.96-0.12-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0625.0037.01-0.00-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.0657.1447.350.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.000.0645.4551.71-0.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0642.8643.01-0.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0616.6727.17-0.00-0.03
UC IrvineBW0.280.0637.5046.90-0.07-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.0628.5742.20-0.00-0.01
BrownIvy0.280.0640.0034.21-0.06-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.590.0670.0066.510.230.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0666.6741.850.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.06100.0087.520.000.04
PittsburghACC0.000.0662.5053.840.000.00
RutgersB100.000.0660.0035.390.00-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0325.0040.22-0.00-0.01
YaleIvy0.000.0370.0064.560.000.01
Southern MissCUSA0.310.0350.0032.740.00-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0336.3639.31-0.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0375.0065.380.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.0372.7351.370.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0371.4364.440.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0357.1447.630.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.000.0322.2242.30-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.0366.6772.150.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0355.5653.100.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0320.0026.45-0.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0375.0069.770.000.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0337.5048.43-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0350.0045.540.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.310.0357.1456.000.040.00
DePaulBE0.000.0366.6739.030.00-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0375.0070.380.000.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0360.0038.270.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.0377.7861.940.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0325.0038.94-0.00-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0344.4449.60-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.000.0387.5047.890.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0387.5054.670.000.00
WashingtonP120.000.03100.0070.570.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0366.6755.560.000.00
Arizona St.P120.000.0360.0053.940.000.00
BradleyMVC0.000.0333.3332.65-0.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0311.1129.23-0.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0337.5037.27-0.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.400.0325.0029.22-0.20-0.01
MercerSC0.000.0337.5041.09-0.00-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0344.4456.62-0.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0340.0065.07-0.000.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0355.5631.620.00-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0354.5557.870.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0362.5064.900.000.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0316.6729.59-0.00-0.01
WyomingMWC0.000.0377.7873.060.000.01
ColumbiaIvy0.280.0362.5064.640.070.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0366.6776.390.000.02
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0330.0028.54-0.00-0.01
La SalleA100.280.0350.0049.920.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0328.5722.66-0.00-0.02
MississippiSEC0.000.0366.6751.450.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.280.030.009.06-0.28-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.000.0337.5054.91-0.000.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0342.8635.74-0.00-0.01
XavierBE0.000.0380.0071.140.000.01
DetroitHorz0.000.0350.0053.430.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.0344.4433.13-0.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0333.3334.47-0.00-0.01
Iowa St.B120.250.0388.8964.670.200.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0340.0050.27-0.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.250.0322.2227.64-0.14-0.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0344.4431.46-0.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0380.0063.530.000.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0375.0064.650.000.01
VCUA100.000.0370.0071.110.000.01