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Through games of Feb 6, 2016.


Hampton

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:201.8
Current RPI:196
Expected SOS:337
Current SOS:321
Current Record:12-9
Expected Record:16-11
Current Conf Record:8-2
Expected Conf Record:12-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:15-4
Current OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC RPI:173
Expected OOC SOS:129



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-9172.66.46%
17-10186.027.96%
16-11201.937.21%
15-12219.021.58%
14-13237.75.96%
13-14257.40.80%
12-15276.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Hampton.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Winthrop (165.0)BSthA102-95L0%0.0
11-17American (262.3)PatA48-61W100%0.0
11-20Appalachian St. (260.0)SBH82-61W100%0.0
11-25William & Mary (40.4)CAAA86-67L0%0.0
11-30Grand Canyon (101.1)WACA63-51L0%0.0
12-2Northern Arizona (323.9)BSkyA94-98W100%0.0
12-5Coppin St. (321.0)MEACA71-74W100%0.0
12-17SMU (12.6)AmerA105-72L0%0.0
12-19Colorado (45.6)P12A95-53L0%0.0
12-22Nicholls St. (330.8)SlndN81-84L0%0.0
12-23Louisiana Monroe (174.7)SBN64-75W100%0.0
1-3Princeton (53.4)IvyH59-89L0%0.0
1-6Morgan St. (329.5)MEACA80-83W100%0.0
1-9Bethune Cookman (302.6)MEACH75-70W100%0.0
1-11Florida A&M (348.5)MEACH71-65W100%0.0
1-16North Carolina A&T (334.7)MEACA62-79W100%0.0
1-18North Carolina Central (321.6)MEACA79-80W100%0.0
1-23Savannah St. (333.3)MEACH75-52W100%0.0
1-25South Carolina St. (210.5)MEACH62-67L0%0.0
1-30Norfolk St. (212.4)MEACH86-76W100%0.0
2-6Maryland Eastern Shore (267.9)MEACA73-70L0%0.0
2-8Howard (290.3)MEACA0-051%0.3
2-15Morgan St. (329.5)MEACH0-076%7.7
2-22Delaware St. (347.9)MEACA0-081%9.4
2-27Howard (290.3)MEACH0-074%7.0
2-29Delaware St. (347.9)MEACH0-093%16.0
3-3Norfolk St. (212.4)MEACA0-031%-5.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Hampton's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Hampton's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Hampton.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
HamptonMEAC26.1826.1562.6364.126.617.39
Norfolk St.MEAC2.914.4142.8650.34-0.420.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.444.319.5213.55-0.36-3.14
Morgan St.MEAC2.674.3021.0527.90-1.54-1.90
HowardMEAC0.444.3038.1040.98-0.11-0.78
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.832.5827.2732.79-1.29-0.89
Coppin St.MEAC2.772.5715.7923.25-1.89-1.38
Bethune CookmanMEAC2.832.5233.3337.41-0.94-0.63
South Carolina St.MEAC2.772.5147.6251.57-0.130.08
North Carolina A&TMEAC2.782.4930.4334.28-1.09-0.78
Savannah St.MEAC2.822.4836.8437.43-0.74-0.62
North Carolina CentralMEAC2.712.4526.3234.55-1.28-0.76
Florida A&MMEAC2.782.3822.2224.57-1.55-1.21
Grand CanyonWAC2.441.9581.8280.441.551.19
William & MaryCAA2.381.9270.0068.680.950.72
Appalachian St.SB2.491.9227.2730.18-1.13-0.76
Northern ArizonaBSky2.441.9210.5313.63-1.92-1.39
PrincetonIvy2.441.9270.5973.741.000.91
ColoradoP122.491.9168.1864.110.910.54
SMUAmer2.491.9190.0085.071.991.34
Nicholls St.Slnd2.491.9110.0014.98-1.99-1.34
Louisiana MonroeSB2.481.9145.0048.00-0.25-0.08
AmericanPat2.431.8831.8233.02-0.88-0.64
WinthropBSth2.381.8563.1661.980.630.44
Old DominionCUSA0.220.2656.5262.780.030.07
HoustonAmer0.400.2372.7368.020.180.08
Georgia SouthernSB0.230.1940.0039.00-0.05-0.04
CincinnatiAmer0.170.1970.8370.930.070.08
CampbellBSth0.180.1728.5729.64-0.08-0.07
High PointBSth0.180.1755.0057.470.020.03
TowsonCAA0.180.1765.2259.750.050.03
LibertyBSth0.290.1734.7836.50-0.09-0.05
ColumbiaIvy0.050.1766.6765.220.020.05
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.170.1766.6767.680.060.06
UtahP120.110.1672.7368.540.050.06
Arkansas St.SB0.170.1642.8639.18-0.02-0.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.170.1690.4886.860.140.12
RadfordBSth0.060.1450.0051.290.000.00
CornellIvy0.000.1342.1140.20-0.00-0.03
HarvardIvy0.070.1335.0038.53-0.02-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.110.1350.0051.170.000.00
DelawareCAA0.110.1321.7423.31-0.06-0.07
PennIvy0.070.1338.8937.66-0.01-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.220.1350.0049.850.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.180.1331.5831.01-0.07-0.05
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.1321.0527.81-0.03-0.06
UC RiversideBW0.060.1345.8341.66-0.00-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.160.1345.4542.00-0.01-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.110.1257.8956.090.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.220.1257.8961.750.030.03
South AlabamaSB0.110.1233.3334.19-0.04-0.04
Texas St.SB0.110.1238.8938.51-0.02-0.03
TroySB0.110.1223.8126.69-0.06-0.06
UT ArlingtonSB0.110.1266.6770.540.040.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.170.1052.0050.260.010.00
LongwoodBSth0.110.1022.7324.97-0.06-0.05
College of CharlestonCAA0.170.1063.6460.930.050.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.1015.0027.27-0.04-0.05
UTEPCUSA0.120.1052.1751.930.010.00
AkronMAC0.170.1081.8280.040.110.06
Kansas St.B120.170.1060.8758.450.040.02
RiderMAAC0.130.1041.6743.53-0.02-0.01
VirginiaACC0.120.1082.6178.050.080.06
AlabamaSEC0.110.1059.0953.030.020.01
San FranciscoWCC0.060.1054.5550.110.010.00
YaleIvy0.120.1073.6874.620.060.05
HofstraCAA0.110.1068.1865.290.040.03
BucknellPat0.170.1054.5558.150.020.02
LafayettePat0.120.1022.7324.04-0.06-0.05
HawaiiBW0.060.1084.2181.680.040.06
UMBCAE0.050.1024.0026.41-0.03-0.05
WagnerNEC0.110.1063.6465.020.030.03
CaliforniaP120.160.1065.2262.900.050.03
OregonP120.160.1081.8278.150.100.05
South FloridaAmer0.120.1020.8320.12-0.07-0.06
PurdueB100.050.1079.1776.550.030.05
TulsaAmer0.120.1063.6459.960.030.02
Washington St.P120.110.1036.3632.01-0.03-0.03
LamarSlnd0.060.1031.5831.96-0.02-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.110.1018.7526.45-0.07-0.05
MichiganB100.060.0969.5766.200.020.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.100.0933.3335.08-0.03-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.170.0945.0049.37-0.02-0.00
TCUB120.060.0943.4837.22-0.01-0.02
TempleAmer0.060.0963.6459.810.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.160.0963.6459.380.040.02
MemphisAmer0.110.0960.8760.800.020.02
StanfordP120.160.0950.0046.610.00-0.01
TulaneAmer0.110.0933.3332.33-0.04-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.120.0723.8126.56-0.06-0.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0760.0060.080.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0765.2266.160.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.110.0736.8438.40-0.03-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.120.0750.0049.100.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.120.0731.5831.81-0.04-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.110.0750.0051.170.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.110.0716.6720.14-0.07-0.04
SouthernSWAC0.110.0765.0066.790.030.02
DartmouthIvy0.070.0731.5831.77-0.02-0.03
DrexelCAA0.060.0713.6418.14-0.04-0.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.120.0752.3854.010.010.01
ElonCAA0.060.0752.1750.430.000.00
IdahoBSky0.120.0754.5554.930.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0745.0046.14-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.060.0769.5768.500.020.03
MontanaBSky0.060.0757.8962.290.010.02
Montana St.BSky0.060.0740.9143.72-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.110.0745.8346.65-0.01-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0715.0015.36-0.04-0.05
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0776.1973.380.030.03
Weber St.BSky0.060.0765.0069.270.020.03
MissouriSEC0.110.0734.7830.36-0.03-0.03
Portland St.BSky0.050.0731.5837.72-0.02-0.02
Iowa St.B120.110.0773.9170.070.050.03
USC UpstateASun0.110.0722.7323.25-0.06-0.04
MarylandB100.120.0787.5083.690.090.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.120.0782.6178.860.080.04
Stony BrookAE0.120.0780.9582.700.070.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0728.5728.55-0.03-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.050.074.357.73-0.05-0.06
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0745.0043.21-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0740.9139.32-0.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.100.0765.2268.610.030.02
RutgersB100.000.0721.7420.35-0.00-0.04
SeattleWAC0.050.0747.6244.99-0.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0745.4554.10-0.000.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0728.5732.71-0.02-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.100.0714.2915.47-0.07-0.05
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0733.3334.94-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.060.0779.1778.310.030.04
GonzagaWCC0.060.0778.2676.870.030.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.110.0728.5726.96-0.05-0.03
San Diego St.MWC0.110.0672.7372.030.050.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.100.0656.5256.310.010.01
ArmyPat0.050.0652.1753.360.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0654.1755.580.000.01
CanisiusMAAC0.110.0641.6743.87-0.02-0.01
ColgatePat0.100.0645.4546.10-0.01-0.00
DePaulBE0.050.0634.7834.45-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0675.0076.230.030.03
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0661.9059.650.000.01
Holy CrossPat0.050.0639.1338.32-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0656.2556.100.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0652.1751.940.000.00
LehighPat0.100.0633.3337.25-0.03-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.050.0634.7837.18-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0617.6529.25-0.04-0.03
NavyPat0.050.0662.5062.440.010.02
NebraskaB100.000.0654.1751.820.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0627.7834.49-0.03-0.02
OhioMAC0.050.0661.9059.420.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0686.3679.150.040.04
St. Francis PANEC0.100.0650.0049.440.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.050.0623.8127.69-0.03-0.03
UC IrvineBW0.050.0672.7371.610.020.03
West VirginiaB120.110.0682.6179.550.070.04
New HampshireAE0.110.0655.0053.160.010.00
Penn St.B100.110.0650.0046.740.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.100.0659.0960.070.020.01
UCFAmer0.110.0652.3845.670.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0670.5975.550.020.03
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0672.7372.450.000.03
Oregon St.P120.100.0661.9056.430.020.01
WashingtonP120.050.0665.2261.080.020.01
CharlotteCUSA0.100.0634.7840.92-0.03-0.01
FIUCUSA0.060.0440.9145.30-0.01-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0421.7423.40-0.04-0.02
North FloridaASun0.060.0465.2267.130.020.01
SamfordSC0.060.0439.1341.32-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0472.0070.500.030.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0430.0035.78-0.02-0.01
BaylorB120.060.0472.7366.500.030.01
ClemsonACC0.060.0460.8760.210.010.01
CreightonBE0.060.0462.5059.780.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0459.0959.440.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0440.9143.55-0.01-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0436.8441.46-0.02-0.01
FordhamA100.060.0455.0052.290.010.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0445.4547.57-0.01-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0461.9056.690.010.00
IowaB100.060.0481.8280.120.040.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0447.6252.67-0.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0425.0024.37-0.03-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0447.8348.91-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0471.4368.720.030.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0440.9140.64-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0425.0026.87-0.03-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.060.0438.1037.49-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.060.0363.6462.520.020.01
DaytonA100.060.0386.3682.350.040.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0350.0051.910.000.00
LipscombASun0.070.0325.0029.27-0.03-0.01
Miami FLACC0.070.0380.9575.490.040.02
North DakotaBSky0.060.0347.3749.97-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0342.1145.73-0.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0338.1041.91-0.02-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0363.6459.230.010.01
DuquesneA100.050.0363.6456.370.010.00
LouisvilleACC0.050.0382.6177.730.030.02
Miami OHMAC0.050.0331.8230.48-0.02-0.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0358.3354.170.010.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0317.3920.65-0.03-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0370.0069.100.020.01
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0386.3685.030.040.02
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0352.1753.070.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.060.0369.5764.880.020.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0354.1752.340.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0352.6350.230.000.00
LSUSEC0.050.0365.2260.280.020.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0383.3383.010.030.02
MinnesotaB100.060.0326.0927.82-0.03-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0340.0045.51-0.01-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.060.0360.8762.990.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.060.0333.3332.99-0.02-0.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0376.1968.220.030.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0356.5256.620.010.00
RichmondA100.050.0354.5554.550.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0347.8350.14-0.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0375.0071.510.030.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0333.3331.30-0.02-0.01
VCUA100.050.0373.9173.910.020.02
WoffordSC0.050.0340.9145.38-0.01-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0330.4332.35-0.02-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0345.4538.48-0.00-0.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0354.1751.650.000.00
AuburnSEC0.050.0340.9136.61-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0359.0958.900.010.01
BYUWCC0.050.0366.6769.500.020.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0352.3850.420.000.00
FloridaSEC0.050.0365.2266.080.020.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0315.7920.03-0.03-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0325.0025.47-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0363.6462.150.010.01
PortlandWCC0.050.0340.0038.50-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.000.0356.5253.250.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0328.5731.90-0.02-0.01
USCP120.000.0378.2673.060.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.050.0354.1749.290.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.050.0352.1753.310.000.00
MercerSC0.050.0372.7370.750.020.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0382.6178.690.030.02
TexasB120.050.0369.5762.640.020.01