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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Hampton

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:251.0
Current RPI:251
Expected SOS:331
Current SOS:331
Current Record:16-17
Expected Record:16-17
Current Conf Record:12-8
Expected Conf Record:12-8
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-7
Current OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC RPI:269
Expected OOC SOS:261



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-17251.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Hampton.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Iowa (43.0)B10A90-56L0%0.0
11-16Syracuse (69.0)ACCA65-47L0%0.0
11-21Alcorn St. (348.0)SWACN69-82W100%0.0
11-22North Dakota St. (92.0)SumA74-66L0%0.0
11-24Appalachian St. (250.0)SBA82-74L0%0.0
11-26American (135.0)PatH60-64L0%0.0
12-2Tennessee St. (341.0)OVCA54-62W100%0.0
12-6Coppin St. (311.0)MEACH71-52W100%0.0
12-8Morgan St. (337.0)MEACH62-58W100%0.0
12-17Illinois (73.0)B10A73-55L0%0.0
12-19Tennessee St. (341.0)OVCH66-54W100%0.0
12-21Northern Arizona (166.0)BSkyH75-66W100%0.0
12-29Northern Illinois (185.0)MACA83-51L0%0.0
1-3USC Upstate (208.0)ASunA68-54L0%0.0
1-10Bethune Cookman (344.0)MEACA56-58W100%0.0
1-12Florida A&M (350.0)MEACA63-78W100%0.0
1-17North Carolina A&T (340.0)MEACH61-64L0%0.0
1-19North Carolina Central (128.0)MEACH52-59L0%0.0
1-24Savannah St. (331.0)MEACA68-66L0%0.0
1-26South Carolina St. (320.0)MEACA65-56L0%0.0
1-31Norfolk St. (167.0)MEACA63-60L0%0.0
2-2NJIT (159.0)indA86-67L0%0.0
2-7Maryland Eastern Shore (195.0)MEACH64-61W100%0.0
2-9Howard (255.0)MEACH73-69W100%0.0
2-16Morgan St. (337.0)MEACA65-93W100%0.0
2-21Delaware St. (204.0)MEACH71-74L0%0.0
2-28Howard (255.0)MEACA67-68W100%0.0
3-2Delaware St. (204.0)MEACA85-75L0%0.0
3-5Norfolk St. (167.0)MEACH69-80L0%0.0
3-9Morgan St. (337.0)MEACN91-71W100%0.0
3-12Maryland Eastern Shore (195.0)MEACN76-71W100%0.0
3-13Norfolk St. (167.0)MEACN64-75W100%0.0
3-14Delaware St. (204.0)MEACN82-61W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Hampton's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Hampton's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Hampton.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
HamptonMEAC26.4126.4152.3552.351.241.24
Delaware St.MEAC5.205.2046.6746.67-0.35-0.35
Norfolk St.MEAC5.165.1657.1457.140.740.74
Morgan St.MEAC5.115.1125.0025.00-2.56-2.56
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC3.733.7360.0060.000.750.75
HowardMEAC3.723.7248.1548.15-0.14-0.14
Tennessee St.OVC3.033.0311.1111.11-2.36-2.36
Coppin St.MEAC2.332.3324.1424.14-1.20-1.20
South Carolina St.MEAC2.252.2526.6726.67-1.05-1.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC2.202.2075.0075.001.101.10
North Carolina A&TMEAC2.162.1620.6920.69-1.27-1.27
Savannah St.MEAC2.152.1521.4321.43-1.23-1.23
Bethune CookmanMEAC2.112.1131.0331.03-0.80-0.80
Florida A&MMEAC2.112.117.147.14-1.81-1.81
NJITind1.681.6854.1754.170.140.14
IowaB101.641.6464.5264.520.480.48
Northern ArizonaBSky1.611.6158.0658.060.260.26
USC UpstateASun1.591.5962.0762.070.380.38
IllinoisB101.591.5958.0658.060.260.26
Alcorn St.SWAC1.561.5617.2417.24-1.02-1.02
North Dakota St.Sum1.561.5668.9768.970.590.59
AmericanPat1.541.5450.0050.000.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC1.541.5442.8642.86-0.22-0.22
SyracuseACC1.541.5456.6756.670.210.21
Appalachian St.SB1.521.5239.2939.29-0.32-0.32
Kennesaw St.ASun0.230.2326.6726.67-0.11-0.11
St. Francis NYNEC0.220.2266.6766.670.070.07
Virginia TechACC0.200.2033.3333.33-0.07-0.07
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.180.1860.7160.710.040.04
MichiganB100.170.1748.3948.39-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.170.1790.6290.620.140.14
UMBCAE0.150.1513.3313.33-0.11-0.11
North FloridaASun0.150.1564.5264.520.040.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.150.1564.7164.710.040.04
Penn St.B100.140.1452.9452.940.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.130.1332.2632.26-0.05-0.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.130.1334.4834.48-0.04-0.04
DuquesneA100.130.1336.6736.67-0.03-0.03
IUPUISum0.130.1332.2632.26-0.05-0.05
JacksonvilleASun0.130.1324.1424.14-0.07-0.07
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.130.1318.7518.75-0.08-0.08
StetsonASun0.130.1321.4321.43-0.07-0.07
Morehead St.OVC0.130.1346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.130.1363.6463.640.030.03
VillanovaBE0.130.1394.1294.120.110.11
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.130.1347.0647.06-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.130.1358.0658.060.020.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.120.1257.1457.140.020.02
HofstraCAA0.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
FordhamA100.120.1230.0030.00-0.05-0.05
TowsonCAA0.120.1235.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Boston UniversityPat0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.120.1272.7372.730.050.05
BelmontOVC0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.100.1035.7135.71-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.100.1058.8258.820.020.02
LipscombASun0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
DenverSum0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.100.1067.8667.860.040.04
UC RiversideBW0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
LafayettePat0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
MarylandB100.100.1081.8281.820.060.06
HoustonAmer0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.100.1046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
Northern IowaMVC0.100.1090.9190.910.080.08
Saint Mary'sWCC0.100.1068.9768.970.040.04
Ohio St.B100.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
NebraskaB100.090.0941.9441.94-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.090.0940.6240.62-0.02-0.02
BucknellPat0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
NavyPat0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.090.0969.7069.700.040.04
MaineAE0.090.0910.0010.00-0.07-0.07
Ball St.MAC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.080.0883.3383.330.050.05
OhioMAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
RadfordBSth0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
TroySB0.080.0829.6329.63-0.03-0.03
CornellIvy0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0821.4321.43-0.04-0.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.080.0852.9452.940.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
ToledoMAC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.080.0885.2985.290.050.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0865.5265.520.020.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.080.000.00-0.08-0.08
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.070.0768.5768.570.030.03
SouthernSWAC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
IndianaB100.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
ElonCAA0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
LibertyBSth0.070.0714.2914.29-0.05-0.05
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
RiderMAAC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
UC IrvineBW0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
MontanaBSky0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.070.0721.4321.43-0.04-0.04
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0777.4277.420.040.04
Southern UtahBSky0.070.0732.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Michigan St.B100.070.0767.6567.650.030.03
MinnesotaB100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
PurdueB100.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
WisconsinB100.070.0791.1891.180.060.06
Loyola MDPat0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
CampbellBSth0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
DelawareCAA0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
IonaMAAC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
LehighPat0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.070.0732.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.070.0770.0070.000.030.03
AlbanyAE0.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
UMass LowellAE0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.060.0616.1316.13-0.04-0.04
St. John'sBE0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0571.4371.430.020.02
Georgia St.SB0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Texas St.SB0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
WinthropBSth0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
MemphisAmer0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0562.9662.960.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
IdahoBSky0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
DukeACC0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
PittsburghACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
DetroitHorz0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Portland St.BSky0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
RutgersB100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
VCUA100.050.0574.2974.290.020.02
Weber St.BSky0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
CreightonBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
FurmanSC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
BradleyMVC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
MercerSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Saint LouisA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.030.0329.6329.63-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.020.0227.2727.27-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
MissouriSEC0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0244.4444.44-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01