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Through games of Nov 18, 2017.


Hampton

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:281.6
Current RPI:321
Expected SOS:344
Current SOS:283
Current Record:0-3
Expected Record:13-14
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-8
Current OOC Record:0-3
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:310
Expected OOC SOS:215



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-6129.00.02%
20-7125.70.03%
19-8168.60.22%
18-9185.71.30%
17-10206.73.24%
16-11228.57.06%
15-12249.713.03%
14-13268.517.01%
13-14286.518.05%
12-15301.716.07%
11-16315.712.10%
10-17326.86.68%
9-18335.13.32%
8-19341.21.23%
7-20345.00.45%
6-21347.80.15%
5-22350.30.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Hampton.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Rider (152.2)MAACA90-75L0%0.0
11-15William & Mary (230.9)CAAA83-76L0%0.0
11-18George Washington (163.9)A10A65-57L0%0.0
11-20Xavier (9.4)BEA0-01%-30.7
11-23Northern Arizona (302.6)BSkyN0-061%3.2
12-6Coastal Carolina (191.4)SBH0-037%-4.0
12-8Missouri St. (94.9)MVCA0-08%-16.9
12-17Gardner Webb (221.4)BSthH0-050%-0.1
12-20Appalachian St. (278.0)SBH0-055%1.6
12-22Virginia (15.8)ACCA0-01%-29.6
12-30UT Rio Grande Valley (269.0)WACA0-040%-3.0
1-6Maryland Eastern Shore (320.1)MEACA0-062%3.6
1-8Howard (252.7)MEACA0-037%-4.0
1-12Delaware St. (346.5)MEACH0-086%13.0
1-20Savannah St. (300.1)MEACA0-063%3.9
1-22South Carolina St. (317.2)MEACA0-058%2.3
1-27Florida A&M (335.5)MEACH0-087%13.6
1-29Bethune Cookman (339.2)MEACH0-077%8.7
1-31Coppin St. (329.3)MEACH0-082%11.2
2-3North Carolina A&T (286.8)MEACA0-047%-0.9
2-5North Carolina Central (279.7)MEACA0-040%-3.1
2-10Norfolk St. (285.6)MEACH0-064%4.3
2-12Coppin St. (329.3)MEACA0-067%5.2
2-17South Carolina St. (317.2)MEACH0-076%8.3
2-19Savannah St. (300.1)MEACH0-079%9.9
2-24Morgan St. (319.1)MEACH0-078%9.3
3-1Norfolk St. (285.6)MEACA0-044%-1.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Hampton's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Hampton's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Hampton.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
HamptonMEAC33.3326.130.0051.22-33.330.64
Savannah St.MEAC0.004.390.0024.850.00-2.21
South Carolina St.MEAC0.004.350.0034.090.00-1.38
Norfolk St.MEAC0.004.320.0042.620.00-0.64
Coppin St.MEAC0.004.290.0022.670.00-2.35
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.002.560.0035.880.00-0.72
Morgan St.MEAC0.002.5533.3335.660.00-0.73
HowardMEAC2.782.500.0045.48-2.78-0.23
Florida A&MMEAC0.002.470.0018.580.00-1.55
Delaware St.MEAC0.002.470.0021.860.00-1.39
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.002.4766.6748.100.00-0.09
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.002.470.0028.400.00-1.07
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.002.470.0048.840.00-0.06
George WashingtonA1016.671.9850.0044.020.00-0.24
Appalachian St.SB0.001.920.0028.130.00-0.84
Coastal CarolinaSB0.001.9233.3347.070.00-0.11
VirginiaACC0.001.92100.0073.240.000.89
William & MaryCAA16.671.920.0032.72-16.67-0.66
XavierBE2.781.91100.0078.282.781.08
RiderMAAC16.671.9150.0053.610.000.14
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.001.8850.0034.460.00-0.59
Gardner WebbBSth0.001.850.0043.450.00-0.24
Missouri St.MVC0.001.8566.6762.160.000.45
Northern ArizonaBSky0.001.850.0023.890.00-0.97
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.23100.0075.130.000.11
GeorgetownBE0.000.22100.0058.070.000.04
Georgia TechACC0.000.220.0057.520.000.03
Little RockSB0.000.200.0037.050.00-0.05
JacksonvilleASun0.000.190.0029.620.00-0.08
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1766.6768.790.000.06
Arkansas St.SB0.000.1733.3342.010.00-0.03
Texas St.SB0.000.1733.3346.090.00-0.01
TroySB0.000.1733.3346.410.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.17100.0071.560.000.07
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.17100.0064.470.000.05
George MasonA100.000.1675.0048.930.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.1666.6728.760.00-0.07
PresbyterianBSth0.000.160.0016.000.00-0.11
DuquesneA100.000.16100.0047.670.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.16100.0082.350.000.10
Old DominionCUSA0.000.1375.0072.950.000.06
South AlabamaSB0.000.1333.3345.780.00-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.1350.0059.190.000.02
LibertyBSth0.000.1333.3360.630.000.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.13100.0057.270.000.02
UCFAmer2.780.13100.0061.782.780.03
Virginia TechACC0.000.1375.0061.940.000.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.1333.3335.310.00-0.04
WinthropBSth0.000.130.0055.380.000.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1333.3357.840.000.02
DavidsonA100.000.13100.0070.080.000.05
VCUA100.000.1366.6766.590.000.04
WisconsinB100.000.1366.6766.970.000.04
West VirginiaB120.000.1366.6771.200.000.05
Miami FLACC0.000.13100.0074.500.000.06
East CarolinaAmer0.000.1233.3334.490.00-0.04
Penn St.B100.000.12100.0060.400.000.03
TowsonCAA0.000.1050.0066.710.000.03
James MadisonCAA0.000.100.0031.810.00-0.04
DelawareCAA0.000.1050.0048.680.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.000.1033.3339.360.00-0.02
HofstraCAA0.000.1075.0056.120.000.01
DrakeMVC0.000.1050.0035.740.00-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.000.10100.0051.900.000.00
High PointBSth2.780.1033.3347.54-0.93-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.1066.6749.100.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.000.1066.6750.670.000.00
RadfordBSth0.000.1050.0046.150.00-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.10100.0052.950.000.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.10100.0059.250.000.02
ManhattanMAAC0.000.10100.0055.280.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1050.0068.280.000.04
NiagaraMAAC0.000.1050.0051.840.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.100.0036.070.00-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.000.10100.0071.010.000.04
SouthernSWAC0.000.100.0044.630.00-0.01
BaylorB120.000.10100.0061.110.000.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.10100.0066.010.000.03
Northern IowaMVC0.000.1066.6763.220.000.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.100.0042.670.00-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.1066.6754.900.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.10100.0067.460.000.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1033.3353.520.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.1075.0045.290.00-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.1066.6759.740.000.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.10100.0054.680.000.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0925.0047.800.00-0.00
NavyPat0.000.0950.0052.870.000.01
DePaulBE0.000.0933.3331.290.00-0.04
ProvidenceBE0.000.0975.0064.570.000.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0925.0040.490.00-0.02
UMBCAE0.000.090.0052.900.000.01
ElonCAA0.000.0733.3350.840.000.00
LamarSlnd0.000.07100.0065.580.000.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.0750.0049.480.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.070.0036.490.00-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0750.0050.360.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0750.0065.140.000.02
Iowa St.B120.000.0750.0038.730.00-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0733.3346.880.00-0.00
MarylandB100.000.07100.0071.740.000.03
Ohio St.B100.000.07100.0059.870.000.01
AmericanPat0.000.070.0030.350.00-0.03
BinghamtonAE0.000.0725.0038.080.00-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0750.0048.410.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.0725.0035.000.00-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0766.6748.040.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.000.0775.0048.770.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.000.070.0051.410.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0750.0052.380.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0733.3351.560.000.00
IdahoBSky0.000.0750.0060.380.000.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.070.0028.170.00-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0733.3352.000.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0733.3343.810.00-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.070.0017.060.00-0.04
Michigan St.B100.000.0750.0077.820.000.04
MontanaBSky0.000.0750.0060.130.000.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.0733.3350.350.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0733.3327.100.00-0.03
Stony BrookAE0.000.070.0047.400.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.000.07100.0062.630.000.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.070.0064.600.000.02
ValparaisoMVC0.000.07100.0059.760.000.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0766.6766.020.000.02
Wichita St.Amer0.000.07100.0082.290.000.04
Wright St.Horz0.000.070.0041.210.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.06100.0054.960.000.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0633.3346.330.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.060.0035.610.00-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.007.670.00-0.05
FurmanSC0.000.0650.0059.440.000.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.060.0032.770.00-0.02
IonaMAAC0.000.0625.0059.770.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.06100.0066.990.000.02
MaristMAAC0.000.060.0023.830.00-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0650.0069.320.000.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.0650.0036.640.00-0.02
PennIvy0.000.0633.3349.350.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0633.3334.560.00-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0625.0032.490.00-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0633.3348.640.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.000.0633.3350.150.000.00
SyracuseACC0.000.06100.0062.240.000.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.060.0046.000.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0633.3353.300.000.00
UCLAP120.000.06100.0064.910.000.02
UMKCWAC0.000.060.0026.150.00-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0650.0060.430.000.01
YaleIvy0.000.0625.0054.930.000.01
Florida St.ACC2.780.06100.0068.202.780.02
MarquetteBE0.000.0650.0050.870.000.00
RichmondA100.000.060.0030.280.00-0.02
Seton HallBE0.000.06100.0067.950.000.02
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0082.960.000.04
ButlerBE0.000.0675.0052.360.000.00
St. John'sBE0.000.06100.0054.590.000.01
FordhamA100.000.0633.3336.170.00-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0633.3333.580.00-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.06100.0056.360.000.01
OhioMAC0.000.0633.3348.480.00-0.00
OregonP120.000.06100.0076.200.000.03
RutgersB100.000.06100.0046.880.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.030.0040.830.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.03100.0059.240.000.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.030.0044.500.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0023.170.00-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0375.0058.930.000.01
TCUB120.000.03100.0061.150.000.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0325.0050.070.000.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0333.3338.350.00-0.01
VermontAE0.000.0366.6774.120.000.02
WoffordSC0.000.030.0039.740.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.03100.0060.370.000.01
ArizonaP120.000.03100.0083.700.000.02
Arizona St.P120.000.03100.0062.760.000.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0366.6742.170.00-0.01
FloridaSEC0.000.03100.0080.230.000.02
Kansas St.B120.000.03100.0062.930.000.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0366.6746.830.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0333.3338.880.00-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.030.0023.260.00-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.000.03100.0048.130.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.030.0033.930.00-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.030.0042.340.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.0366.6767.630.000.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0366.6761.500.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0046.410.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.000.0333.3330.460.00-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.030.0039.010.00-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.030.0021.380.00-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.030.0045.040.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0333.3353.190.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.030.0029.880.00-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.030.0047.690.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.000.0333.3338.050.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.03100.0083.580.000.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0053.280.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.030.0032.130.00-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.000.0366.6756.330.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.000.03100.0086.180.000.02
HartfordAE2.780.0333.3326.43-0.93-0.02
HawaiiBW0.000.03100.0053.460.000.00
IndianaB100.000.0333.3341.220.00-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.030.0031.380.00-0.01
LehighPat0.000.0366.6751.580.000.00
NebraskaB100.000.0366.6740.070.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0350.0043.710.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.03100.0078.160.000.02
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0073.730.000.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.03100.0059.540.000.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0333.3336.410.00-0.01
SienaMAAC0.000.030.0037.060.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.03100.0076.260.000.02
StetsonASun0.000.0333.3333.620.00-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.030.0056.560.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.030.0051.690.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0366.6749.990.00-0.00
WagnerNEC0.000.0366.6749.940.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.000.0350.0046.810.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.000.03100.0041.780.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.000.03100.0052.860.000.00
DaytonA100.000.0366.6762.150.000.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0333.3354.200.000.00
La SalleA100.000.0375.0051.210.000.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0350.0042.160.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0333.3336.610.00-0.01
New HampshireAE0.000.030.0048.110.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.030.0051.010.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.0350.0073.230.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0366.6759.540.000.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0366.6753.390.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0350.0054.450.000.00
TempleAmer0.000.03100.0056.600.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.0333.3345.540.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.000.030.0044.830.00-0.00
MercerSC0.000.0375.0076.250.000.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.03100.0051.080.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.0350.0066.530.000.01
North FloridaASun0.000.030.0036.690.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.03100.0069.350.000.01
TexasB120.000.03100.0063.830.000.01
UNLVMWC0.000.03100.0064.720.000.01