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Through games of Nov 21, 2014.


Hampton

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:201.2
Current RPI:223
Expected SOS:344
Current SOS:223
Current Record:1-2
Expected Record:17-11
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:15-6
Current OOC Record:1-2
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:170
Expected OOC SOS:254



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-476.20.04%
23-593.00.20%
22-6103.70.91%
21-7119.92.40%
20-8137.35.52%
19-9155.310.47%
18-10173.915.25%
17-11192.517.67%
16-12212.817.06%
15-13232.113.21%
14-14251.18.96%
13-15269.64.85%
12-16289.12.20%
11-17304.20.94%
10-18318.00.27%
9-19331.70.03%
8-20344.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Hampton.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Iowa (29.3)B10A90-56L0%0.0
11-16Syracuse (24.9)ACCA65-47L0%0.0
11-21Alcorn St. (264.5)SWACN69-82W100%0.0
11-24Appalachian St. (331.6)SBA0-075%8.2
11-26American (76.6)PatH0-038%-3.6
12-2Tennessee St. (300.5)OVCA0-060%3.1
12-6Coppin St. (265.1)MEACH0-080%10.2
12-8Morgan St. (274.9)MEACH0-075%8.1
12-17Illinois (42.2)B10A0-07%-17.7
12-19Tennessee St. (300.5)OVCH0-080%10.3
12-21Northern Arizona (177.8)BSkyH0-060%2.9
12-29Northern Illinois (214.8)MACA0-042%-2.4
1-3USC Upstate (258.4)ASunA0-049%-0.3
1-10Bethune Cookman (296.7)MEACA0-057%2.0
1-12Florida A&M (348.5)MEACA0-084%12.2
1-17North Carolina A&T (329.4)MEACH0-090%15.2
1-19North Carolina Central (171.3)MEACH0-050%0.1
1-24Savannah St. (275.2)MEACA0-060%3.1
1-26South Carolina St. (295.8)MEACA0-063%4.1
1-31Norfolk St. (225.2)MEACA0-044%-1.9
2-2NJIT (306.5)indA0-067%5.3
2-7Maryland Eastern Shore (323.5)MEACH0-088%14.2
2-9Howard (311.0)MEACH0-082%11.1
2-16Morgan St. (274.9)MEACA0-053%0.9
2-21Delaware St. (249.0)MEACH0-074%7.7
2-28Howard (311.0)MEACA0-063%3.9
3-2Delaware St. (249.0)MEACA0-052%0.6
3-5Norfolk St. (225.2)MEACH0-067%5.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Hampton's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Hampton's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Hampton.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
HamptonMEAC31.9426.2045.4563.95-2.907.31
Norfolk St.MEAC0.004.200.0048.50-0.00-0.13
HowardMEAC0.004.170.0034.66-0.00-1.28
Delaware St.MEAC0.004.1433.3343.99-0.00-0.50
Morgan St.MEAC0.004.140.0037.56-0.00-1.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.003.570.0027.57-0.00-1.60
Coppin St.MEAC0.002.540.0032.12-0.00-0.91
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.002.5225.0029.71-0.00-1.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.002.450.0023.68-0.00-1.29
Florida A&MMEAC0.002.420.0016.76-0.00-1.61
South Carolina St.MEAC0.002.410.0031.74-0.00-0.88
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.002.390.0046.52-0.00-0.17
Savannah St.MEAC0.002.3933.3335.90-0.00-0.67
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.002.380.0070.11-0.000.96
NJITind0.001.9433.3328.64-0.00-0.83
IowaB1018.751.9133.3366.76-6.250.64
USC UpstateASun0.001.88100.0050.180.000.01
IllinoisB100.001.88100.0064.690.000.55
Northern ArizonaBSky0.001.8533.3354.73-0.000.18
AmericanPat0.001.8266.6764.360.000.52
Alcorn St.SWAC16.671.810.0041.83-16.67-0.30
Northern IllinoisMAC0.001.81100.0045.070.00-0.18
SyracuseACC18.751.8166.6769.226.250.70
Appalachian St.SB0.001.790.0015.36-0.00-1.24
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.22100.0063.380.000.06
Kennesaw St.ASun2.080.190.0027.11-2.08-0.09
VirginiaACC0.000.19100.0076.260.000.10
MichiganB100.000.18100.0066.870.000.06
Virginia TechACC0.000.18100.0041.370.00-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.000.160.0038.65-0.00-0.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.160.0054.88-0.000.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.160.0032.47-0.00-0.06
JacksonvilleASun0.000.160.0024.25-0.00-0.08
StetsonASun0.000.160.0032.16-0.00-0.06
UMBCAE0.000.160.0035.60-0.00-0.05
Morehead St.OVC0.000.160.0054.04-0.000.01
North FloridaASun0.000.160.0049.10-0.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.000.15100.0073.200.000.07
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.140.0015.85-0.00-0.09
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.130.0038.27-0.00-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.130.0034.26-0.00-0.04
LipscombASun0.000.130.0041.45-0.00-0.02
DuquesneA100.000.130.0051.78-0.000.00
BelmontOVC0.000.1350.0072.160.000.06
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1333.3351.38-0.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.130.0037.20-0.00-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.000.13100.0048.390.00-0.00
MarylandB100.000.13100.0063.680.000.03
HofstraCAA0.000.1366.6763.800.000.03
FordhamA100.000.130.0034.73-0.00-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1250.0035.880.00-0.04
TowsonCAA0.000.1266.6745.850.00-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.12100.0060.630.000.03
VillanovaBE0.000.12100.0067.360.000.04
Boston UniversityPat0.000.1233.3357.87-0.000.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.120.0032.86-0.00-0.04
OregonP120.000.12100.0070.690.000.05
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.120.0046.93-0.00-0.01
Penn St.B100.000.1275.0045.210.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.12100.0073.590.000.06
NebraskaB100.000.12100.0051.030.000.00
NorthwesternB100.000.12100.0043.710.00-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1033.3335.37-0.00-0.03
MaineAE0.000.100.0016.80-0.00-0.07
IUPUISum0.000.1033.3330.78-0.00-0.04
SouthernSWAC0.000.100.0045.55-0.00-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.1050.0072.260.000.04
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.1033.3338.27-0.00-0.02
MarquetteBE0.000.1050.0054.250.000.01
OhioMAC0.000.1050.0054.660.000.01
TroySB0.000.100.0046.30-0.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.10100.0050.900.000.00
RadfordBSth0.000.1033.3344.86-0.00-0.01
LafayettePat0.000.1066.6762.890.000.02
St. Francis PANEC0.000.100.0051.62-0.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.090.0038.12-0.00-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.090.0048.03-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0933.3363.82-0.000.03
Austin PeayOVC0.000.090.0029.88-0.00-0.04
HoustonAmer0.000.09100.0065.750.000.03
UC RiversideBW0.000.090.0027.23-0.00-0.04
North CarolinaACC0.000.09100.0066.050.000.03
Georgia TechACC0.000.09100.0052.690.000.00
CornellIvy0.000.0940.0041.64-0.00-0.02
Notre DameACC0.000.09100.0069.430.000.04
PepperdineWCC0.000.09100.0051.000.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.090.0047.54-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.09100.0070.600.000.04
TempleAmer0.000.0966.6760.730.000.02
IndianaB100.000.09100.0063.850.000.03
Northern IowaMVC0.000.09100.0068.990.000.03
Wake ForestACC0.000.0950.0041.490.00-0.02
NavyPat0.000.090.0032.22-0.00-0.03
ColgatePat0.000.090.0036.43-0.00-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.000.0966.6738.520.00-0.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0966.6771.300.000.04
PurdueB100.000.09100.0060.570.000.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0950.0063.730.000.02
WisconsinB100.000.09100.0081.110.000.05
AlbanyAE0.000.0750.0063.960.000.02
UMass LowellAE0.000.0733.3331.34-0.00-0.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.070.0038.98-0.00-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.070.0062.15-0.000.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0725.0033.23-0.00-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.070.0023.71-0.00-0.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.070.0038.83-0.00-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.070.0033.39-0.00-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.070.0035.33-0.00-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.07100.0071.730.000.03
St. John'sBE0.000.06100.0052.280.000.00
FIUCUSA0.000.06100.0043.610.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.06100.0045.610.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0666.6763.580.000.02
BaylorB120.000.06100.0068.940.000.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.06100.0061.540.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0045.780.00-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.060.0062.16-0.000.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0666.6757.590.000.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0666.6747.240.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.06100.0067.860.000.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.0650.0033.640.00-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.0633.3349.73-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.000.0650.0062.660.000.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.060.0026.04-0.00-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.060.0035.17-0.00-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.060.0041.63-0.00-0.01
TCUB120.000.06100.0054.240.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0650.0044.000.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0055.380.000.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0650.0045.610.00-0.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0650.0056.600.000.01
CaliforniaP124.860.0675.0073.242.430.03
TexasB124.860.06100.0084.134.860.04
CharlotteCUSA0.000.06100.0070.040.000.03
IdahoBSky0.000.0650.0047.220.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.06100.0077.160.000.03
ArkansasSEC0.000.06100.0074.210.000.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.060.0051.04-0.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.060.0044.57-0.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0633.3344.98-0.00-0.01
CampbellBSth0.000.060.0030.14-0.00-0.02
DelawareCAA0.000.060.0033.61-0.00-0.02
ElonCAA0.000.0650.0040.300.00-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.060.0058.17-0.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0650.0049.560.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0675.0054.690.000.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.060.0028.50-0.00-0.03
IonaMAAC0.000.0666.6766.940.000.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.060.0048.57-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0650.0062.510.000.02
ManhattanMAAC0.000.060.0057.16-0.000.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.060.0043.21-0.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.06100.0046.320.00-0.00
PennIvy0.000.060.0025.28-0.00-0.03
Portland St.BSky0.000.06100.0051.300.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.06100.0053.060.000.00
RiderMAAC0.000.0666.6751.360.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0650.0046.900.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.060.0024.22-0.00-0.03
Texas St.SB0.000.06100.0052.850.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.000.0650.0062.910.000.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0666.6754.260.000.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.060.0055.60-0.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.06100.0079.370.000.04
ClemsonACC0.000.0633.3344.93-0.00-0.01
ArmyPat0.000.06100.0057.810.000.01
BrownIvy0.000.0633.3338.39-0.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.000.0633.3346.82-0.00-0.00
LehighPat0.000.060.0035.69-0.00-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0666.6768.330.000.02
RutgersB100.000.0650.0036.270.00-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0650.0041.690.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.06100.0086.380.000.04
PittsburghACC0.000.0666.6751.250.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.04100.0064.850.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.04100.0055.810.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.040.0048.48-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.040.0043.82-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.000.0450.0057.440.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.03100.0069.630.000.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.030.0038.57-0.00-0.01
MemphisAmer0.000.030.0065.36-0.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.03100.0036.560.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0350.0059.030.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0350.0052.540.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.030.0029.61-0.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.000.030.0025.34-0.00-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0366.6759.850.000.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.030.0033.60-0.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0350.0054.170.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0325.0057.21-0.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.03100.0075.400.000.02
DenverSum0.000.0350.0062.440.000.01
DePaulBE0.000.03100.0037.800.00-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.03100.0063.410.000.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0366.6755.230.000.00
LSUSEC0.000.0366.6756.820.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0366.6751.090.000.00
Saint LouisA100.000.03100.0066.070.000.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.03100.0061.810.000.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0350.0055.220.000.00
Texas TechB120.000.0350.0043.560.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0350.0033.930.00-0.01
WashingtonP120.000.03100.0056.460.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.03100.0055.900.000.00
Arizona St.P120.000.03100.0058.420.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.030.0034.69-0.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.03100.0061.420.000.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.030.0032.99-0.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.000.0350.0025.820.00-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0333.3328.03-0.00-0.01
MercerSC0.000.0350.0052.770.000.00
MississippiSEC0.000.0366.6760.220.000.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0350.0059.350.000.01
MontanaBSky0.000.030.0049.81-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.030.0024.76-0.00-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0333.3365.68-0.000.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0366.6748.270.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.000.030.0027.74-0.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.000.030.0028.13-0.00-0.01
WyomingMWC0.000.03100.0056.150.000.00
XavierBE0.000.03100.0076.430.000.02
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0350.0060.970.000.01
DetroitHorz0.000.030.0055.45-0.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0350.0051.340.000.00
La SalleA100.000.03100.0055.910.000.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0366.6750.370.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.030.0033.43-0.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0350.0050.390.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.0333.3363.09-0.000.01
VCUA100.000.03100.0074.770.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0350.0056.300.000.00
Iowa St.B120.000.03100.0061.270.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0333.3352.91-0.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0350.0021.230.00-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.03100.0059.140.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum2.080.0333.3347.78-0.69-0.00