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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Hampton

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:332.8
Current RPI:343
Expected SOS:347
Current SOS:293
Current Record:0-6
Expected Record:9-18
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-11
Current OOC Record:0-6
Expected OOC Record:1-10
Expected OOC RPI:343
Expected OOC SOS:226



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-9179.00.01%
17-10243.00.01%
16-11249.70.09%
15-12268.50.39%
14-13283.81.15%
13-14298.53.82%
12-15311.47.82%
11-16322.913.21%
10-17331.318.30%
9-18337.918.97%
8-19342.815.28%
7-20346.011.69%
6-21348.15.98%
5-22349.42.19%
4-23350.10.85%
3-24350.70.18%
2-25350.80.05%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Hampton.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Rider (212.4)MAACH56-67L0%0.0
11-20Kansas St. (99.4)B12A89-67L0%0.0
11-22Richmond (173.8)A10A65-52L0%0.0
11-25Robert Morris (246.0)NECN62-48L0%0.0
11-26Stony Brook (298.6)AEN66-76L0%0.0
11-29East Carolina (187.7)AmerA68-48L0%0.0
12-3William & Mary (121.0)CAAH0-018%-11.0
12-7Gardner Webb (214.7)BSthA0-018%-10.8
12-17Winthrop (119.7)BSthH0-019%-10.7
12-21Appalachian St. (238.2)SBA0-019%-10.5
12-28Princeton (95.0)IvyA0-04%-21.0
1-4North Carolina A&T (339.0)MEACH0-069%6.1
1-7South Carolina St. (304.2)MEACH0-067%5.4
1-9Savannah St. (339.8)MEACH0-071%6.7
1-14Delaware St. (289.6)MEACA0-038%-3.8
1-16North Carolina Central (154.4)MEACH0-021%-9.5
1-21Norfolk St. (309.4)MEACA0-034%-5.0
1-30Coppin St. (342.9)MEACH0-079%9.6
2-1Maryland Eastern Shore (291.5)MEACH0-053%0.9
2-4Savannah St. (339.8)MEACA0-052%0.6
2-6South Carolina St. (304.2)MEACA0-047%-0.8
2-11Howard (291.2)MEACH0-050%0.1
2-18Bethune Cookman (340.9)MEACA0-050%0.1
2-20Florida A&M (346.2)MEACA0-055%1.6
2-25Morgan St. (332.1)MEACA0-041%-2.6
2-27Norfolk St. (309.4)MEACH0-054%1.2
3-2Coppin St. (342.9)MEACA0-061%3.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Hampton's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Hampton's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Hampton.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
HamptonMEAC28.6226.150.0035.40-28.62-7.64
Savannah St.MEAC0.004.370.0023.05-0.00-2.35
South Carolina St.MEAC0.004.360.0026.58-0.00-2.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.004.340.0036.99-0.00-1.13
Coppin St.MEAC0.004.310.0017.35-0.00-2.81
Morgan St.MEAC0.002.5516.6736.29-0.00-0.70
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.002.5516.6731.25-0.00-0.96
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.522.540.0024.09-0.52-1.32
HowardMEAC0.002.520.0037.85-0.00-0.61
Florida A&MMEAC0.522.510.0022.65-0.52-1.37
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.002.5166.6775.240.001.27
Delaware St.MEAC0.002.4816.6735.41-0.00-0.72
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.002.480.0033.75-0.00-0.81
Gardner WebbBSth0.001.9820.0047.15-0.00-0.11
East CarolinaAmer8.331.9571.4345.763.57-0.17
William & MaryCAA0.001.9240.0054.42-0.000.17
WinthropBSth0.001.9260.0070.080.000.77
Kansas St.B128.851.9183.3354.425.900.17
Robert MorrisNEC9.521.9114.2937.26-6.80-0.49
RiderMAAC8.331.8840.0046.26-1.67-0.14
RichmondA108.851.8850.0046.830.00-0.12
Appalachian St.SB0.001.8520.0034.27-0.00-0.58
PrincetonIvy0.001.8525.0062.67-0.000.47
Stony BrookAE8.331.850.0031.46-8.33-0.69
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.2150.0045.410.00-0.02
LibertyBSth0.000.2040.0050.71-0.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.2033.3327.13-0.00-0.09
JacksonvilleASun0.000.1757.1459.480.000.03
High PointBSth0.000.1750.0051.260.000.00
CampbellBSth0.000.1725.0033.54-0.00-0.06
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.1728.5739.44-0.00-0.04
HofstraCAA0.000.1657.1440.550.00-0.03
MonmouthMAAC0.000.1671.4371.570.000.07
TowsonCAA1.220.1650.0054.490.000.01
BucknellPat1.120.1675.0067.660.560.06
UMBCAE0.000.1680.0055.340.000.02
South FloridaAmer0.690.1666.6732.240.23-0.06
BrownIvy0.000.1450.0042.420.00-0.02
FurmanSC0.000.1420.0049.38-0.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.690.1442.8642.47-0.10-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.1325.0038.72-0.00-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.000.1325.0024.66-0.00-0.07
RadfordBSth0.000.1333.3336.31-0.00-0.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.1350.0064.840.000.04
James MadisonCAA0.000.130.0028.15-0.00-0.06
ClemsonACC0.000.1366.6753.460.000.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.520.1328.5734.18-0.22-0.04
VCUA100.000.1385.7178.150.000.07
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.1328.5730.29-0.00-0.05
Iowa St.B120.000.1371.4368.970.000.05
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.1316.6729.36-0.00-0.05
HartfordAE0.690.1312.5022.55-0.52-0.07
ManhattanMAAC0.000.1333.3338.19-0.00-0.03
Saint LouisA100.000.1333.3326.75-0.00-0.06
George WashingtonA100.000.1357.1444.160.00-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.1316.6727.03-0.00-0.06
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.1342.8638.05-0.00-0.03
UCFAmer0.000.1383.3374.620.000.06
Boston CollegeACC1.880.1350.0027.250.00-0.06
SMUAmer0.000.1257.1469.300.000.05
MarylandB101.880.1285.7156.491.350.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.1212.5048.98-0.00-0.00
WagnerNEC0.690.1233.3353.85-0.230.01
HarvardIvy0.000.100.0043.04-0.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.1071.4386.030.000.07
PennIvy0.520.1040.0057.97-0.100.02
DelawareCAA0.000.1040.0040.65-0.00-0.02
IowaB100.000.1042.8644.33-0.00-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.1057.1448.240.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.1050.0052.140.000.00
BYUWCC0.000.1071.4368.660.000.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.1033.3343.64-0.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1062.5056.500.000.01
DrexelCAA0.000.1042.8636.82-0.00-0.03
MemphisAmer0.000.1085.7159.740.000.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1083.3377.170.000.05
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.1020.0032.60-0.00-0.03
New HampshireAE0.000.1050.0057.480.000.01
LehighPat0.000.1033.3367.01-0.000.03
StetsonASun0.520.1028.5728.26-0.22-0.04
Old DominionCUSA0.600.1066.6765.810.200.03
DavidsonA100.000.1083.3368.880.000.04
BinghamtonAE0.000.1042.8640.94-0.00-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.1050.0047.560.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0983.3357.990.000.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0940.0050.91-0.000.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0983.3376.370.000.05
MassachusettsA100.000.0983.3358.080.000.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0940.0043.86-0.00-0.01
FordhamA100.690.0957.1443.680.10-0.01
Texas TechB120.000.0985.7163.780.000.02
CornellIvy0.000.0728.5730.63-0.00-0.03
YaleIvy0.000.0733.3364.14-0.000.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.070.0023.47-0.00-0.04
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0785.7168.390.000.03
DukeACC0.000.0787.5078.680.000.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0783.3380.700.000.04
ElonCAA0.000.0783.3358.030.000.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0760.0067.410.000.02
Holy CrossPat0.000.0742.8647.69-0.00-0.00
Little RockSB0.000.0760.0057.900.000.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0771.4365.740.000.02
OregonP120.000.0771.4366.730.000.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0728.5723.76-0.00-0.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.07100.0089.040.000.05
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0775.0074.990.000.03
South CarolinaSEC0.000.07100.0080.780.000.04
SyracuseACC0.000.0766.6770.140.000.03
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0766.6766.100.000.02
Texas St.SB0.000.0750.0043.310.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0757.1464.940.000.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0716.6718.96-0.00-0.04
HawaiiBW0.000.0750.0050.940.000.00
SamfordSC0.000.0757.1455.810.000.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0750.0056.430.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0750.0046.780.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0766.6761.340.000.02
ButlerBE0.000.07100.0075.690.000.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0742.8646.78-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0733.3340.39-0.00-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0766.6754.420.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0771.4343.020.00-0.01
PurdueB100.000.0771.4374.450.000.03
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0757.1448.860.00-0.00
DaytonA100.000.0766.6772.440.000.03
Rhode IslandA100.000.0771.4370.330.000.03
AmericanPat0.000.0616.6735.65-0.00-0.02
MichiganB100.000.0671.4366.530.000.02
RutgersB100.000.0683.3344.770.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0628.5733.92-0.00-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.520.0650.0042.710.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.520.0666.6751.090.170.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0671.4350.570.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0625.0034.47-0.00-0.02
VMISC0.600.060.0021.15-0.60-0.04
AkronMAC0.000.0683.3369.840.000.03
AlbanyAE0.000.0650.0060.380.000.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0650.0052.330.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0650.0056.260.000.01
MaineAE0.000.0616.6725.61-0.00-0.03
UMass LowellAE0.000.0625.0040.81-0.00-0.01
UtahP120.000.0675.0061.040.000.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0685.7174.430.000.03
VermontAE0.000.0662.5071.630.000.03
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0683.3361.490.000.01
PacificWCC0.000.0650.0049.010.00-0.00
George MasonA100.000.0657.1442.940.00-0.01
DuquesneA100.000.0637.5034.65-0.00-0.02
BaylorB120.000.06100.0074.460.000.03
BryantNEC0.000.0628.5750.20-0.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0633.3341.52-0.00-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0640.0037.65-0.00-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0633.3338.76-0.00-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.690.0683.3362.080.460.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0620.0034.22-0.00-0.02
IonaMAAC0.000.0660.0070.140.000.02
KansasB120.000.0685.7176.170.000.03
MaristMAAC0.000.0642.8635.68-0.00-0.02
OklahomaB120.000.0683.3351.920.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0683.3356.560.000.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0616.6734.31-0.00-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0660.0052.760.000.00
SienaMAAC0.000.0628.5750.51-0.000.00
TCUB120.000.06100.0059.480.000.01
TempleAmer0.000.0671.4363.570.000.02
TexasB120.000.0650.0036.240.00-0.02
TulaneAmer0.000.0614.2926.81-0.00-0.03
TulsaAmer0.000.0660.0039.200.00-0.01
VirginiaACC0.000.06100.0082.550.000.04
West VirginiaB120.000.0683.3380.550.000.04
Cal PolyBW0.000.0433.3335.92-0.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0483.3363.610.000.01
LafayettePat0.000.0433.3331.87-0.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0366.6756.360.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.0385.7162.410.000.01
IllinoisB100.000.0357.1442.660.00-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.030.0042.55-0.00-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.0385.7175.950.000.02
LSUSEC0.000.0371.4349.770.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0383.3359.600.000.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0020.01-0.00-0.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0350.0045.920.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.000.0385.7172.660.000.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.0383.3361.150.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.0325.0056.92-0.000.00
TroySB0.000.0333.3332.23-0.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.0375.0073.840.000.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0316.6743.29-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0316.6730.27-0.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0350.0055.850.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0366.6754.380.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0340.0067.95-0.000.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0333.3345.60-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.000.0350.0043.610.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0371.4368.100.000.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0342.8637.25-0.00-0.01
Penn St.B100.000.0362.5043.960.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0385.7155.550.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.0328.5727.50-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0375.0054.320.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.0325.0043.26-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.0385.7162.920.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0366.6739.720.00-0.01
IndianaB100.000.0383.3375.060.000.02
IUPUISum0.000.0328.5747.72-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0357.1447.320.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.690.0333.3340.49-0.23-0.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0371.4363.090.000.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.0350.0062.460.000.01
NJITASun0.000.0342.8650.32-0.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0350.0061.810.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0340.0030.80-0.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0075.010.000.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0385.7169.010.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0357.1467.020.000.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0366.6758.420.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0342.8634.17-0.00-0.01
La SalleA100.000.0360.0051.780.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.030.0019.30-0.00-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.0366.6770.740.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0371.4352.370.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0385.7180.960.000.02
DePaulBE0.520.0380.0035.960.31-0.01
Green BayHorz0.600.0333.3348.71-0.20-0.00
MercerSC0.520.0350.0053.050.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.600.0333.3348.73-0.20-0.00
OaklandHorz0.000.0383.3378.430.000.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0316.6732.62-0.00-0.01
Washington St.P120.000.0350.0036.820.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.600.030.0022.69-0.60-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.520.0342.8637.60-0.07-0.01