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Through games of Jan 20, 2018.


Hampton

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:287.5
Current RPI:320
Expected SOS:333
Current SOS:245
Current Record:3-12
Expected Record:11-16
Current Conf Record:1-2
Expected Conf Record:9-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-9
Current OOC Record:2-10
Expected OOC Record:2-10
Expected OOC RPI:281
Expected OOC SOS:106



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-12222.10.74%
14-13239.85.24%
13-14257.514.49%
12-15275.524.44%
11-16293.525.57%
10-17310.217.54%
9-18323.28.30%
8-19333.52.90%
7-20341.10.60%
6-21345.90.16%
5-22347.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Hampton.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Rider (106.0)MAACA90-75L0%0.0
11-15William & Mary (96.1)CAAA83-76L0%0.0
11-18George Washington (201.7)A10A65-57L0%0.0
11-20Xavier (6.2)BEA96-60L0%0.0
11-23Northern Arizona (316.5)BSkyN66-76W100%0.0
11-24Rider (106.0)MAACN94-80L0%0.0
12-6Coastal Carolina (244.7)SBH81-85L0%0.0
12-8Missouri St. (58.3)MVCA88-75L0%0.0
12-17Gardner Webb (214.6)BSthH79-80L0%0.0
12-20Appalachian St. (266.2)SBH86-53W100%0.0
12-22Virginia (4.4)ACCA82-48L0%0.0
12-30UT Rio Grande Valley (227.6)WACA80-69L0%0.0
1-6Maryland Eastern Shore (334.5)MEACA92-83L0%0.0
1-12Delaware St. (350.2)MEACH78-56W100%0.0
1-20Savannah St. (246.7)MEACA103-101L0%0.0
1-22South Carolina St. (325.8)MEACA0-066%4.6
1-27Florida A&M (340.4)MEACH0-087%12.3
1-29Bethune Cookman (287.3)MEACH0-073%6.7
1-31Coppin St. (342.3)MEACH0-088%13.1
2-3North Carolina A&T (240.7)MEACA0-046%-1.2
2-5North Carolina Central (268.1)MEACA0-038%-3.5
2-10Norfolk St. (292.5)MEACH0-070%6.0
2-12Coppin St. (342.3)MEACA0-073%6.7
2-17South Carolina St. (325.8)MEACH0-084%11.0
2-19Savannah St. (246.7)MEACH0-079%9.1
2-24Morgan St. (312.1)MEACH0-076%7.8
3-1Norfolk St. (292.5)MEACA0-048%-0.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Hampton's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Hampton's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Hampton.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
HamptonMEAC26.5026.1819.3042.58-16.27-3.88
Savannah St.MEAC3.614.3523.5332.58-1.91-1.51
South Carolina St.MEAC0.184.3127.7832.17-0.08-1.54
Norfolk St.MEAC0.004.2818.7536.470.00-1.16
Coppin St.MEAC0.094.259.5217.83-0.07-2.74
RiderMAAC6.833.7661.1162.901.520.97
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.262.5250.0053.340.000.17
Morgan St.MEAC0.262.5129.4140.21-0.11-0.49
Delaware St.MEAC3.332.430.009.47-3.33-1.97
Florida A&MMEAC0.092.4010.0019.83-0.07-1.45
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC3.432.4011.1118.10-2.66-1.53
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.182.4055.5656.800.020.33
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.092.3943.7553.78-0.010.18
George WashingtonA103.581.9842.1141.60-0.57-0.33
XavierBE3.581.9485.0079.412.511.14
Appalachian St.SB3.331.9235.2938.60-0.98-0.44
Coastal CarolinaSB3.331.9223.5335.84-1.76-0.54
VirginiaACC3.431.9294.1284.943.021.34
William & MaryCAA3.431.9262.5058.440.860.32
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC3.331.8842.1143.06-0.53-0.26
Gardner WebbBSth3.331.8537.5041.31-0.83-0.32
Missouri St.MVC3.331.8568.4267.341.230.64
Northern ArizonaBSky3.331.8511.7615.85-2.55-1.26
HowardMEAC0.180.6410.5327.31-0.14-0.29
Grand CanyonWAC0.080.2370.0071.230.030.10
Georgia TechACC0.180.2252.6343.120.01-0.03
Little RockSB0.000.2022.2225.260.00-0.10
JacksonvilleASun0.190.1933.3333.80-0.06-0.06
ManhattanMAAC0.250.1947.3748.17-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.090.1868.4254.090.030.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.090.1766.6765.620.030.05
Texas St.SB0.270.1657.8950.210.040.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.270.1660.0062.030.050.04
George MasonA100.180.1645.0041.35-0.02-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.100.1629.4127.74-0.04-0.07
Georgia SouthernSB0.360.1666.6765.360.120.05
FairfieldMAAC0.260.1638.8944.14-0.06-0.02
IonaMAAC0.260.1663.1666.880.070.05
DuquesneA100.260.1670.0058.100.100.03
MonmouthMAAC0.090.1527.7840.88-0.04-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.170.1589.4785.520.140.11
Penn St.B100.250.1561.9055.770.060.02
Old DominionCUSA0.190.1378.9576.760.110.07
Arkansas St.SB0.000.1327.7831.120.00-0.05
South AlabamaSB0.190.1350.0045.900.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.190.1335.0026.14-0.06-0.06
UCFAmer0.200.1368.4260.880.070.03
TroySB0.180.1335.2942.76-0.05-0.02
DrexelCAA0.260.1330.0030.99-0.11-0.05
HofstraCAA0.260.1357.8959.470.040.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.1320.0028.720.00-0.06
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.280.1383.3381.350.190.08
WinthropBSth0.100.1346.6758.78-0.010.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.1377.7871.650.050.06
NiagaraMAAC0.170.1357.1453.220.020.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.170.1357.1460.400.020.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.260.1377.7879.160.140.07
UC IrvineBW0.340.1330.0039.93-0.14-0.03
Virginia TechACC0.180.1368.4257.780.070.02
West VirginiaB120.090.1284.2178.170.060.07
WisconsinB100.170.1250.0046.260.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.270.1258.8261.440.050.03
VCUA100.270.1260.0059.690.050.02
Miami FLACC0.180.1276.4769.020.100.05
East CarolinaAmer0.090.1242.1132.48-0.01-0.04
CanisiusMAAC0.170.1260.0060.340.030.03
MaristMAAC0.170.1221.0521.99-0.10-0.07
QuinnipiacMAAC0.170.1231.5830.00-0.06-0.05
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.170.1244.4448.91-0.02-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.250.1270.0060.460.100.03
TowsonCAA0.100.1063.1666.000.030.03
James MadisonCAA0.290.1025.0028.25-0.14-0.04
DelawareCAA0.190.1047.3743.04-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.200.1040.0047.86-0.04-0.00
AuburnSEC0.100.1089.4777.030.080.05
MarshallCUSA0.180.1068.4263.640.070.03
LamarSlnd0.190.1050.0054.850.000.01
LibertyBSth0.190.1052.9457.320.010.01
RadfordBSth0.100.1061.1160.790.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.090.1063.1657.540.020.01
EvansvilleMVC0.080.1052.6347.360.00-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.080.1044.4444.86-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.180.1029.4133.22-0.07-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.180.1068.4263.980.060.03
SouthernSWAC0.080.1027.7840.97-0.04-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0968.4255.060.030.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0968.4257.770.030.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0942.1144.970.00-0.01
NavyPat0.000.0960.0055.160.000.01
BaylorB120.170.0961.1156.090.040.01
DrakeMVC0.170.0955.0049.070.02-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0952.6350.250.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0952.3848.520.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.170.0975.0070.690.080.04
DePaulBE0.170.0942.1134.32-0.03-0.03
UMBCAE0.090.0958.8258.360.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.170.0944.4450.31-0.020.00
Northern IowaMVC0.160.0947.0652.51-0.010.00
ElonCAA0.100.0752.6351.090.010.00
NortheasternCAA0.100.0763.1663.180.030.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0742.1143.500.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0722.2227.330.00-0.03
Ohio St.B100.190.0780.9576.520.120.04
BinghamtonAE0.090.0744.4442.74-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.090.0742.1145.97-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0758.8249.760.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.100.0743.7545.34-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0731.5832.720.00-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.190.0766.6765.530.060.02
LongwoodBSth0.100.0717.6517.23-0.06-0.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.190.0726.6729.04-0.09-0.03
Stony BrookAE0.000.0738.8946.680.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0750.0055.650.000.01
Iowa St.B120.180.0661.1147.260.04-0.00
MarylandB100.190.0670.0065.320.070.02
Wake ForestACC0.090.0644.4441.15-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.180.0668.4269.240.070.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.090.0616.6724.29-0.06-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0645.0049.270.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.003.120.00-0.06
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.090.0638.8946.03-0.02-0.01
FurmanSC0.000.0666.6768.500.000.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.0636.8444.12-0.02-0.01
IdahoBSky0.090.0664.7166.850.030.02
Idaho St.BSky0.090.0643.7540.93-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.090.0670.0068.220.040.02
Michigan St.B100.090.0685.0083.180.060.04
MontanaBSky0.090.0670.5973.140.040.03
Montana St.BSky0.090.0650.0047.670.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0683.3384.230.000.04
North TexasCUSA0.080.0644.4446.64-0.01-0.00
SeattleWAC0.080.0657.8954.500.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.090.0637.5033.78-0.02-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.170.067.6923.28-0.14-0.03
Texas TechB120.090.0678.9571.810.050.03
UCLAP120.000.0665.0062.040.000.02
UMKCWAC0.080.0621.0524.71-0.05-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.080.0666.6766.010.030.02
Weber St.BSky0.090.0656.2557.400.010.01
Wichita St.Amer0.090.0678.9577.360.050.03
YaleIvy0.000.0641.1847.510.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.000.0684.2173.210.000.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0637.5037.68-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.090.0640.0030.87-0.02-0.02
Arizona St.P120.170.0678.9576.130.100.03
Kansas St.B120.180.0673.6862.720.080.02
St. BonaventureA100.090.0666.6768.700.030.02
BradleyMVC0.000.0665.0057.870.000.01
HartfordAE0.170.0652.6346.880.01-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0647.3745.87-0.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0644.4446.10-0.01-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.0677.7869.360.000.02
SienaMAAC0.000.0630.0031.690.00-0.02
SyracuseACC0.090.0668.4261.270.030.01
ValparaisoMVC0.170.0650.0051.360.000.00
WagnerNEC0.170.0664.7164.540.050.02
Florida St.ACC0.080.0673.6869.610.040.02
Rhode IslandA100.180.0683.3381.410.120.04
ButlerBE0.080.0666.6763.070.030.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0620.0023.360.00-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0652.6347.390.00-0.00
FordhamA100.000.0631.5829.060.00-0.03
MarquetteBE0.080.0668.4260.530.030.01
OhioMAC0.000.0647.0648.440.00-0.00
OregonP120.000.0665.0063.830.000.02
RichmondA100.080.0631.5834.35-0.03-0.02
RutgersB100.000.0657.8947.140.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.080.0675.0067.890.040.02
VillanovaBE0.080.0694.7490.310.070.05
St. John'sBE0.080.0647.3742.18-0.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0317.6519.330.00-0.02
IllinoisB100.000.0347.3744.270.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0328.5731.270.00-0.01
TCUB120.100.0373.6865.590.050.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0326.3231.520.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.090.0347.0644.91-0.01-0.00
FloridaSEC0.100.0373.6871.550.050.01
South CarolinaSEC0.090.0361.1151.900.020.00
USC UpstateASun0.100.0311.1117.96-0.08-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.090.0333.3334.11-0.03-0.01
UTSACUSA0.090.0341.1839.65-0.02-0.01
VermontAE0.090.0373.6877.120.040.02
Western CarolinaSC0.090.0338.8935.35-0.02-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.090.0352.9452.230.010.00
WoffordSC0.090.0368.7563.620.030.01
AmericanPat0.090.0326.3228.14-0.04-0.01
ArizonaP120.090.0380.0078.980.060.02
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0350.0053.160.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.000.0323.5328.210.00-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.090.0352.6351.700.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.090.0338.8943.43-0.02-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0316.6724.910.00-0.02
NebraskaB100.090.0366.6759.780.030.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.0350.0051.480.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.0329.4134.760.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0358.8257.140.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0368.4254.090.030.00
PennIvy0.090.0364.7162.780.030.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.0358.8263.210.000.01
RiceCUSA0.080.0311.1117.69-0.06-0.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0316.6724.460.00-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.090.0333.3332.96-0.03-0.01
SMUAmer0.080.0370.0070.630.030.01
South DakotaSum0.090.0373.6872.360.040.01
StetsonASun0.000.0333.3336.920.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0335.2940.480.00-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.090.0357.8953.190.010.00
The CitadelSC0.000.0318.7518.400.00-0.02
WashingtonP120.000.0370.0061.440.000.01
Washington St.P120.000.0350.0042.180.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.090.0344.4445.98-0.01-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0345.0041.34-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.000.0389.4785.190.000.02
LehighPat0.090.0338.8944.75-0.02-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.090.0380.0075.050.060.02
Notre DameACC0.000.0363.1661.050.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0330.0032.53-0.03-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0372.2272.970.040.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.090.0368.7567.640.030.01
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0336.8435.55-0.02-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0368.4270.810.030.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0361.1158.750.000.01
ColoradoP120.080.0360.0053.730.020.00
DaytonA100.000.0347.3750.950.000.00
Green BayHorz0.000.0325.0027.940.00-0.01
HarvardIvy0.080.0337.5046.63-0.02-0.00
La SalleA100.000.0340.0042.720.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0350.0046.780.00-0.00
MercerSC0.000.0344.4454.890.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0372.2258.940.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0323.5328.70-0.04-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0370.5975.930.000.02
New HampshireAE0.080.0329.4138.15-0.03-0.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0331.5835.150.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.080.0352.9460.270.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0350.0051.650.000.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0347.3746.910.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0380.0078.860.000.02
TempleAmer0.080.0352.6351.730.000.00
TexasB120.000.0363.1657.620.000.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0373.6865.280.000.01