live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Hampton

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:237.0
Current RPI:237
Expected SOS:330
Current SOS:330
Current Record:16-15
Expected Record:16-15
Current Conf Record:14-5
Expected Conf Record:14-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:15-7
Current OOC Record:2-10
Expected OOC Record:2-10
Expected OOC RPI:268
Expected OOC SOS:94



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-15237.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Hampton.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Rider (69.0)MAACA90-75L0%0.0
11-15William & Mary (94.0)CAAA83-76L0%0.0
11-18George Washington (195.0)A10A65-57L0%0.0
11-20Xavier (3.0)BEA96-60L0%0.0
11-23Northern Arizona (310.0)BSkyN66-76W100%0.0
11-24Rider (69.0)MAACN94-80L0%0.0
12-6Coastal Carolina (246.0)SBH81-85L0%0.0
12-8Missouri St. (136.0)MVCA88-75L0%0.0
12-17Gardner Webb (244.0)BSthH79-80L0%0.0
12-20Appalachian St. (250.0)SBH86-53W100%0.0
12-22Virginia (1.0)ACCA82-48L0%0.0
12-30UT Rio Grande Valley (229.0)WACA80-69L0%0.0
1-6Maryland Eastern Shore (346.0)MEACA92-83L0%0.0
1-12Delaware St. (351.0)MEACH78-56W100%0.0
1-20Savannah St. (197.0)MEACA103-101L0%0.0
1-22South Carolina St. (331.0)MEACA84-91W100%0.0
1-27Florida A&M (332.0)MEACH71-75L0%0.0
1-29Bethune Cookman (288.0)MEACH80-69W100%0.0
1-31Coppin St. (343.0)MEACH70-59W100%0.0
2-3North Carolina A&T (238.0)MEACA92-84L0%0.0
2-5North Carolina Central (279.0)MEACA70-86W100%0.0
2-8Howard (339.0)MEACA81-95W100%0.0
2-10Norfolk St. (266.0)MEACH82-52W100%0.0
2-12Coppin St. (343.0)MEACA79-82W100%0.0
2-17South Carolina St. (331.0)MEACH79-66W100%0.0
2-19Savannah St. (197.0)MEACH114-102W100%0.0
2-24Morgan St. (327.0)MEACH57-38W100%0.0
3-1Norfolk St. (266.0)MEACA71-74W100%0.0
3-7Florida A&M (332.0)MEACN75-71W100%0.0
3-9North Carolina A&T (238.0)MEACN96-86W100%0.0
3-10North Carolina Central (279.0)MEACN63-71L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Hampton's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Hampton's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Hampton.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
HamptonMEAC26.2326.2354.8154.812.532.53
North Carolina CentralMEAC3.933.9351.7251.720.140.14
Savannah St.MEAC3.913.9142.8642.86-0.56-0.56
North Carolina A&TMEAC3.883.8856.6756.670.520.52
Norfolk St.MEAC3.883.8846.4346.43-0.28-0.28
South Carolina St.MEAC3.853.8528.5728.57-1.65-1.65
Coppin St.MEAC3.833.8316.6716.67-2.55-2.55
Florida A&MMEAC3.813.8122.5822.58-2.09-2.09
RiderMAAC3.273.2768.9768.971.241.24
Morgan St.MEAC2.422.4237.9337.93-0.58-0.58
HowardMEAC2.332.3326.6726.67-1.09-1.09
Bethune CookmanMEAC2.322.3255.1755.170.240.24
Delaware St.MEAC2.312.316.906.90-1.99-1.99
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.292.2913.7913.79-1.66-1.66
George WashingtonA101.741.7443.7543.75-0.22-0.22
XavierBE1.691.6984.3884.381.161.16
Appalachian St.SB1.671.6743.3343.33-0.22-0.22
VirginiaACC1.671.6793.7593.751.461.46
William & MaryCAA1.671.6757.1457.140.240.24
Coastal CarolinaSB1.661.6635.7135.71-0.48-0.48
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC1.641.6441.3841.38-0.28-0.28
Gardner WebbBSth1.611.6135.7135.71-0.46-0.46
Missouri St.MVC1.611.6151.6151.610.050.05
Northern ArizonaBSky1.611.6113.7913.79-1.17-1.17
Grand CanyonWAC0.240.2465.6265.620.070.07
GeorgetownBE0.200.2050.0050.000.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.200.2040.6240.62-0.04-0.04
Little RockSB0.190.1920.0020.00-0.11-0.11
JacksonvilleASun0.190.1937.9337.93-0.04-0.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.160.1677.4277.420.090.09
Texas St.SB0.160.1641.9441.94-0.03-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.160.1660.6160.610.030.03
PresbyterianBSth0.160.1627.5927.59-0.07-0.07
ManhattanMAAC0.160.1645.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.160.1643.7543.75-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.160.1648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
WinthropBSth0.140.1457.1457.140.020.02
TroySB0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.130.1330.0030.00-0.05-0.05
Georgia SouthernSB0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
South FloridaAmer0.130.1331.2531.25-0.05-0.05
FairfieldMAAC0.130.1351.5251.520.000.00
IonaMAAC0.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
CincinnatiAmer0.130.1388.2488.240.100.10
MonmouthMAAC0.130.1335.4835.48-0.04-0.04
East CarolinaAmer0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Penn St.B100.130.1361.7661.760.030.03
Virginia TechACC0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
SouthernSWAC0.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
Miami FLACC0.130.1370.9770.970.050.05
ProvidenceBE0.130.1361.7661.760.030.03
TowsonCAA0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
UCFAmer0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
DrexelCAA0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
HofstraCAA0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.110.1180.6580.650.070.07
LamarSlnd0.110.1153.5753.570.010.01
RadfordBSth0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
NiagaraMAAC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
MarshallCUSA0.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.100.1084.3884.380.070.07
CanisiusMAAC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
MaristMAAC0.100.1019.3519.35-0.06-0.06
QuinnipiacMAAC0.100.1036.3636.36-0.03-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
West VirginiaB120.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
VCUA100.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
ClemsonACC0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
High PointBSth0.080.0840.7440.74-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
AuburnSEC0.080.0878.1278.120.050.05
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
San DiegoWCC0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
SeattleWAC0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
BaylorB120.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
DrakeMVC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
NavyPat0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
UMBCAE0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
CreightonBE0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
DePaulBE0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoMVC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
St. John'sBE0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
NortheasternCAA0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
MarylandB100.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
BinghamtonAE0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.050.053.333.33-0.05-0.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
FurmanSC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
IdahoBSky0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
MontanaBSky0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
Montana St.BSky0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0583.3383.330.040.04
North TexasCUSA0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0530.7730.77-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
UCLAP120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
UMKCWAC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
Weber St.BSky0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Wichita St.Amer0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
YaleIvy0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
AmericanPat0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Iowa St.B120.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
HartfordAE0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
IllinoisB100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0532.0032.00-0.02-0.02
SienaMAAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
WagnerNEC0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
Arizona St.P120.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
PittsburghACC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
BradleyMVC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0532.3532.35-0.02-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.050.0564.7164.710.010.01
RutgersB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
ButlerBE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Green BayHorz0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
MercerSC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Murray St.OVC0.050.0582.7682.760.030.03
North CarolinaACC0.050.0571.4371.430.020.02
North FloridaASun0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
RichmondA100.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Seton HallBE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
SyracuseACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
TexasB120.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
UNLVMWC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
FloridaSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
TCUB120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
UTSACUSA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
VermontAE0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
WoffordSC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
ArizonaP120.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
South DakotaSum0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
StetsonASun0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
WashingtonP120.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Washington St.P120.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
HawaiiBW0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
IndianaB100.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
ColoradoP120.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
DaytonA100.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
HarvardIvy0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
La SalleA100.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
LehighPat0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
MassachusettsA100.020.0239.3939.39-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
TempleAmer0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01