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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Hampton

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:155.0
Current RPI:155
Expected SOS:322
Current SOS:322
Current Record:20-10
Expected Record:20-10
Current Conf Record:16-3
Expected Conf Record:16-3
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:19-4
Current OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC RPI:158
Expected OOC SOS:88



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-10155.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Hampton.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Winthrop (130.0)BSthA102-95L0%0.0
11-17American (231.0)PatA48-61W100%0.0
11-20Appalachian St. (259.0)SBH82-61W100%0.0
11-25William & Mary (67.0)CAAA86-67L0%0.0
11-30Grand Canyon (91.0)WACA63-51L0%0.0
12-2Northern Arizona (333.0)BSkyA94-98W100%0.0
12-5Coppin St. (326.0)MEACA71-74W100%0.0
12-17SMU (13.0)AmerA105-72L0%0.0
12-19Colorado (35.0)P12A95-53L0%0.0
12-22Nicholls St. (313.0)SlndN81-84L0%0.0
12-23Louisiana Monroe (95.0)SBN64-75W100%0.0
1-3Princeton (39.0)IvyH59-89L0%0.0
1-6Morgan St. (327.0)MEACA80-83W100%0.0
1-9Bethune Cookman (288.0)MEACH75-70W100%0.0
1-11Florida A&M (349.0)MEACH71-65W100%0.0
1-16North Carolina A&T (340.0)MEACA62-79W100%0.0
1-18North Carolina Central (310.0)MEACA79-80W100%0.0
1-23Savannah St. (277.0)MEACH75-52W100%0.0
1-25South Carolina St. (203.0)MEACH62-67L0%0.0
1-30Norfolk St. (225.0)MEACH86-76W100%0.0
2-6Maryland Eastern Shore (307.0)MEACA73-70L0%0.0
2-8Howard (328.0)MEACA65-68W100%0.0
2-15Morgan St. (327.0)MEACH87-79W100%0.0
2-22Delaware St. (345.0)MEACA72-82W100%0.0
2-27Howard (328.0)MEACH68-67W100%0.0
2-29Delaware St. (345.0)MEACH79-65W100%0.0
3-3Norfolk St. (225.0)MEACA83-63L0%0.0
3-9Morgan St. (327.0)MEACN83-81W100%0.0
3-11Savannah St. (277.0)MEACN89-55W100%0.0
3-12South Carolina St. (203.0)MEACN81-69W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Hampton's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Hampton's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Hampton.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
HamptonMEAC26.2826.2871.4371.4311.2611.26
Morgan St.MEAC5.585.5829.6329.63-2.27-2.27
Norfolk St.MEAC4.124.1248.2848.28-0.14-0.14
South Carolina St.MEAC4.064.0655.1755.170.420.42
Savannah St.MEAC4.034.0351.8551.850.150.15
Delaware St.MEAC4.004.0017.8617.86-2.57-2.57
HowardMEAC3.973.9735.7135.71-1.14-1.14
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.532.5326.6726.67-1.18-1.18
Coppin St.MEAC2.502.5025.0025.00-1.25-1.25
North Carolina CentralMEAC2.422.4235.7135.71-0.69-0.69
Bethune CookmanMEAC2.392.3941.3841.38-0.41-0.41
North Carolina A&TMEAC2.342.3433.3333.33-0.78-0.78
Florida A&MMEAC2.312.3123.0823.08-1.24-1.24
Grand CanyonWAC1.751.7578.5778.571.001.00
William & MaryCAA1.721.7260.7160.710.370.37
ColoradoP121.721.7264.5264.520.500.50
Nicholls St.Slnd1.721.7223.3323.33-0.92-0.92
Appalachian St.SB1.721.7230.0030.00-0.69-0.69
Louisiana MonroeSB1.721.7260.0060.000.340.34
Northern ArizonaBSky1.721.7211.1111.11-1.34-1.34
PrincetonIvy1.721.7276.9276.920.930.93
SMUAmer1.721.7282.7682.761.131.13
AmericanPat1.691.6940.0040.00-0.34-0.34
WinthropBSth1.671.6767.8667.860.600.60
Old DominionCUSA0.250.2562.8662.860.060.06
CampbellBSth0.200.2033.3333.33-0.07-0.07
HoustonAmer0.200.2070.9770.970.080.08
Georgia SouthernSB0.190.1941.3841.38-0.03-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.190.1968.7568.750.070.07
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.170.1772.4172.410.080.08
High PointBSth0.170.1764.2964.290.050.05
TowsonCAA0.170.1760.0060.000.030.03
UtahP120.170.1775.7675.760.090.09
Arkansas St.SB0.160.1631.0331.03-0.06-0.06
Arkansas Little RockSB0.160.1687.1087.100.120.12
ColumbiaIvy0.140.1465.5265.520.040.04
LibertyBSth0.140.1434.4834.48-0.04-0.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.140.1442.8642.86-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.140.1437.5037.50-0.03-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
BrownIvy0.120.1225.9325.93-0.06-0.06
CornellIvy0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
HarvardIvy0.120.1242.8642.86-0.02-0.02
PennIvy0.120.1237.0437.04-0.03-0.03
RiderMAAC0.110.1139.3939.39-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
Central MichiganMAC0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
RadfordBSth0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.110.1124.2424.24-0.06-0.06
VirginiaACC0.110.1178.7978.790.060.06
College of CharlestonCAA0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
AkronMAC0.110.1175.7675.760.060.06
WagnerNEC0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
OregonP120.110.1181.8281.820.070.07
Kansas St.B120.110.1151.5251.520.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.110.1125.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Washington St.P120.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Georgia St.SB0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.110.1124.1424.14-0.06-0.06
YaleIvy0.090.0977.7877.780.050.05
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
TulsaAmer0.090.0964.5264.520.020.02
BucknellPat0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
LafayettePat0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
MissouriSEC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.080.0828.5728.57-0.04-0.04
ManhattanMAAC0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
TCUB120.080.0836.3636.36-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
AlabamaSEC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
HawaiiBW0.080.0883.3383.330.050.05
LamarSlnd0.080.0826.9226.92-0.04-0.04
MemphisAmer0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
PurdueB100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
TulaneAmer0.080.0835.2935.29-0.02-0.02
UMBCAE0.080.0821.8821.88-0.05-0.05
ArizonaP120.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
Kent St.MAC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
CaliforniaP120.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
Boston UniversityPat0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
LehighPat0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0826.9226.92-0.04-0.04
Northern KentuckyHorz0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.080.0820.8320.83-0.05-0.05
StanfordP120.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Weber St.BSky0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Portland St.BSky0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
MarylandB100.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.060.0679.4179.410.030.03
Stony BrookAE0.060.0680.0080.000.030.03
GonzagaWCC0.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
BaylorB120.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0622.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.060.063.453.45-0.05-0.05
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0657.6957.690.010.01
DrexelCAA0.060.0620.0020.00-0.03-0.03
ElonCAA0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0622.8622.86-0.03-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
SeattleWAC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
UMKCWAC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.060.0618.5218.52-0.04-0.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0670.5970.590.020.02
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
MassachusettsA100.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.060.0647.0647.06-0.00-0.00
RutgersB100.060.0619.3519.35-0.03-0.03
StetsonASun0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
UCFAmer0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
New HampshireAE0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
ArmyPat0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Holy CrossPat0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0556.0056.000.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
OhioMAC0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
Ohio St.B100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
St. BonaventureA100.050.0573.3373.330.030.03
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0582.1482.140.030.03
UC IrvineBW0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Penn St.B100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Oregon St.P120.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
WashingtonP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
North FloridaASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
CreightonBE0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
DaytonA100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
IowaB100.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0383.8783.870.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
The CitadelSC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
FurmanSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
MercerSC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Michigan St.B100.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
MinnesotaB100.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
TexasB120.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
WoffordSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
PortlandWCC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
USCP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01