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Through games of Mar 2, 2015.


Hampton

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:286.5
Current RPI:285
Expected SOS:339
Current SOS:342
Current Record:12-16
Expected Record:12-17
Current Conf Record:8-7
Expected Conf Record:8-8
Probability of Auto Bid:1.69%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-8
Current OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC RPI:279
Expected OOC SOS:286



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-16277.439.79%
12-17292.660.21%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Hampton.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Iowa (46.7)B10A90-56L0%0.0
11-16Syracuse (64.6)ACCA65-47L0%0.0
11-21Alcorn St. (348.0)SWACN69-82W100%0.0
11-22North Dakota St. (122.5)SumA74-66L0%0.0
11-24Appalachian St. (271.2)SBA82-74L0%0.0
11-26American (163.6)PatH60-64L0%0.0
12-2Tennessee St. (344.9)OVCA54-62W100%0.0
12-6Coppin St. (314.1)MEACH71-52W100%0.0
12-8Morgan St. (336.0)MEACH62-58W100%0.0
12-17Illinois (62.5)B10A73-55L0%0.0
12-19Tennessee St. (344.9)OVCH66-54W100%0.0
12-21Northern Arizona (177.5)BSkyH75-66W100%0.0
12-29Northern Illinois (202.1)MACA83-51L0%0.0
1-3USC Upstate (225.0)ASunA68-54L0%0.0
1-10Bethune Cookman (341.7)MEACA56-58W100%0.0
1-12Florida A&M (350.1)MEACA63-78W100%0.0
1-17North Carolina A&T (336.1)MEACH61-64L0%0.0
1-19North Carolina Central (111.3)MEACH52-59L0%0.0
1-24Savannah St. (319.5)MEACA68-66L0%0.0
1-26South Carolina St. (319.8)MEACA65-56L0%0.0
1-31Norfolk St. (162.6)MEACA63-60L0%0.0
2-2NJIT (169.3)indA86-67L0%0.0
2-7Maryland Eastern Shore (190.3)MEACH64-61W100%0.0
2-9Howard (250.0)MEACH73-69W100%0.0
2-16Morgan St. (336.0)MEACA65-93W100%0.0
2-21Delaware St. (228.8)MEACH71-74L0%0.0
2-28Howard (250.0)MEACA67-68W100%0.0
3-2Delaware St. (228.8)MEACA85-75L0%0.0
3-5Norfolk St. (162.6)MEACH0-040%-2.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Hampton's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Hampton's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Hampton.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
HamptonMEAC26.1526.1747.5446.47-1.29-1.85
Norfolk St.MEAC2.434.0555.5655.560.270.45
HowardMEAC4.084.0252.0051.770.160.14
Delaware St.MEAC4.093.9938.4639.24-0.94-0.86
Morgan St.MEAC4.063.9925.9325.39-1.95-1.96
Tennessee St.OVC3.573.4511.1111.11-2.78-2.68
Coppin St.MEAC2.422.4423.0823.72-1.31-1.28
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.442.4258.6259.640.420.47
North Carolina A&TMEAC2.402.3622.2221.51-1.33-1.34
Florida A&MMEAC2.372.333.704.70-2.19-2.11
South Carolina St.MEAC2.362.3225.9326.16-1.14-1.11
North Carolina CentralMEAC2.362.3276.0076.831.231.24
Bethune CookmanMEAC2.332.2929.6330.99-0.95-0.87
Savannah St.MEAC2.332.2923.0824.75-1.26-1.16
IowaB101.951.8764.2964.470.560.54
NJITind1.881.8752.1752.250.080.08
Northern ArizonaBSky1.851.8255.5656.580.210.24
USC UpstateASun1.881.8161.5461.540.430.42
IllinoisB101.881.8160.7160.710.400.39
Alcorn St.SWAC1.851.7816.0015.33-1.26-1.24
North Dakota St.Sum1.851.7865.3865.380.570.55
AmericanPat1.821.7548.2848.28-0.06-0.06
Northern IllinoisMAC1.821.7540.0040.86-0.36-0.32
SyracuseACC1.821.7558.6257.770.310.27
Appalachian St.SB1.791.7234.6234.94-0.55-0.52
Kennesaw St.ASun0.260.2427.5927.59-0.11-0.11
St. Francis NYNEC0.190.2166.6766.670.060.07
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.220.2162.9662.960.060.05
MichiganB100.190.1848.1549.32-0.01-0.00
VirginiaACC0.160.1896.5595.270.140.16
Virginia TechACC0.180.1733.3333.11-0.06-0.06
IUPUISum0.170.1633.3333.33-0.06-0.05
South AlabamaSB0.170.1625.9327.36-0.08-0.07
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.170.1520.0020.59-0.10-0.09
JacksonvilleASun0.160.1525.0025.00-0.08-0.08
StetsonASun0.160.1522.2222.22-0.09-0.09
UMBCAE0.160.1513.7913.79-0.12-0.11
North FloridaASun0.160.1560.7160.710.030.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.160.1534.4834.48-0.05-0.05
Miami FLACC0.160.1562.0761.960.040.04
Morehead St.OVC0.150.1544.8344.83-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.130.1234.6233.87-0.04-0.04
LipscombASun0.130.1238.4638.46-0.03-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.130.1251.8551.850.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.1258.6260.300.010.02
HofstraCAA0.100.1261.2961.290.020.03
Holy CrossPat0.130.1244.4444.44-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.130.1282.7682.200.080.08
FordhamA100.130.1230.7731.67-0.05-0.04
BelmontOVC0.120.1264.2964.290.040.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.090.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.120.1235.7135.71-0.04-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.090.1257.1457.450.010.02
OregonP120.130.1272.4171.800.060.05
TowsonCAA0.130.1236.6736.67-0.03-0.03
VillanovaBE0.130.1293.1092.720.110.10
Georgia SouthernSB0.130.1270.8368.830.050.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.120.1259.2659.260.020.02
Boston UniversityPat0.090.1242.8642.86-0.01-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.090.1251.7251.720.000.00
Ohio St.B100.120.1172.4172.020.060.05
Penn St.B100.120.1151.7249.610.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.090.1146.4344.99-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.090.1148.2847.38-0.00-0.01
MaineAE0.110.1010.3410.34-0.09-0.08
DenverSum0.100.0941.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.100.0940.7440.74-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.100.0960.7160.050.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.100.0934.4836.58-0.03-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.100.0964.2962.980.030.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.100.0952.0052.010.000.00
LafayettePat0.100.0957.1457.140.010.01
MarquetteBE0.100.0939.2940.48-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.100.0933.3333.19-0.03-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.070.0923.0824.73-0.04-0.05
RadfordBSth0.100.0964.2964.290.030.03
St. Francis PANEC0.100.0950.0050.000.000.00
TexasB120.100.0960.0060.870.020.02
SouthernSWAC0.100.0944.4443.52-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.100.0965.5264.230.030.03
Murray St.OVC0.100.0985.7185.710.070.06
TroySB0.100.0930.7731.17-0.04-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.100.0941.3840.71-0.02-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.100.0923.0823.77-0.05-0.05
CornellIvy0.100.0944.4444.55-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.100.0982.7681.280.060.06
PepperdineWCC0.100.0957.1457.140.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.100.0946.1544.70-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.090.0950.0050.770.000.00
TempleAmer0.090.0968.9768.630.040.03
North CarolinaACC0.090.0968.9768.760.040.03
Austin PeayOVC0.090.0921.4321.43-0.05-0.05
BaylorB120.060.0972.4173.230.030.04
Wake ForestACC0.090.0944.8343.32-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.090.0935.7136.34-0.03-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.100.0946.1547.40-0.01-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.100.0930.7731.72-0.04-0.03
IndianaB100.060.0965.5264.530.020.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.090.0971.4371.430.040.04
BucknellPat0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
ColgatePat0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
NavyPat0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.090.0990.0090.000.070.07
Michigan St.B100.090.0865.5265.370.030.03
MinnesotaB100.090.0857.1456.740.010.01
PurdueB100.060.0865.5264.180.020.02
WisconsinB100.090.0889.6687.980.070.06
AlbanyAE0.070.0772.4172.410.030.03
UMass LowellAE0.070.0739.2939.29-0.02-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.070.0746.1547.12-0.01-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.070.0616.1316.13-0.05-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0666.6766.670.020.02
IPFWSum0.070.0650.0050.000.000.00
MemphisAmer0.070.0658.6256.810.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0637.0437.67-0.02-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0653.5753.570.000.00
South DakotaSum0.070.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0667.8667.860.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0624.0024.00-0.03-0.03
St. John'sBE0.070.0667.8665.670.020.02
FIUCUSA0.060.0640.7440.35-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.060.0640.7440.68-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.0628.0029.86-0.03-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0660.8761.600.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0635.4836.30-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0673.0871.340.030.03
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0675.0073.780.030.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.060.000.76-0.07-0.06
Miami OHMAC0.070.0639.2939.42-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0642.8645.16-0.00-0.01
RichmondA100.070.0658.6259.650.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0659.2658.300.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.070.0659.2659.260.010.01
WinthropBSth0.070.0653.8553.850.010.00
MontanaBSky0.060.0657.6958.430.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.060.0621.4321.46-0.04-0.03
IdahoBSky0.070.0644.0044.87-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.060.0679.3178.080.040.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.070.0642.8642.03-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0638.4639.08-0.02-0.01
CampbellBSth0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0644.8346.87-0.01-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0665.3865.380.020.02
DelawareCAA0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0667.8666.170.010.02
Georgia St.SB0.070.0667.8668.260.020.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0650.0050.330.000.00
HawaiiBW0.060.0660.7160.850.010.01
IonaMAAC0.060.0677.4277.420.030.03
James MadisonCAA0.030.0661.2961.290.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0653.8555.420.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0660.0059.400.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.060.0646.1544.42-0.00-0.01
PennIvy0.060.0628.0028.98-0.03-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.030.0646.1547.64-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.060.0673.0872.290.030.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0640.7440.74-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.060.0658.6257.120.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.060.0650.0048.860.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.030.0641.6741.69-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0655.5655.060.000.01
CaliforniaP120.060.0658.6255.610.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.060.0679.3177.760.040.03
ClemsonACC0.060.0657.1455.060.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0678.5779.270.040.03
ArmyPat0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0624.1423.75-0.03-0.03
ElonCAA0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0615.3816.35-0.04-0.04
LehighPat0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
LibertyBSth0.060.0614.8114.81-0.04-0.04
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.030.0650.0049.010.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0668.0066.540.010.02
UC IrvineBW0.060.0657.6958.370.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.060.0640.0040.15-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.060.0640.7438.92-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0675.8676.580.030.03
Boston CollegeACC0.060.0637.9338.68-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.060.0689.6688.520.050.04
PittsburghACC0.060.0662.0761.400.010.01
RutgersB100.060.0634.4833.26-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.040.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.040.0370.3768.760.020.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0325.9325.33-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0368.9768.280.010.01
CreightonBE0.030.0344.8343.40-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0351.8551.850.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0339.2939.32-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0326.9226.02-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.030.0339.2940.08-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0367.8668.890.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0360.7160.300.010.01
DePaulBE0.030.0340.0039.59-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0350.0048.810.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.030.0372.4171.340.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0333.3331.67-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0348.1548.97-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.030.0367.8669.230.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0324.0023.51-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.030.0357.1456.280.000.00
Arizona St.P120.030.0351.7252.550.000.00
BradleyMVC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0337.0437.86-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0325.8125.81-0.02-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0340.7440.41-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
MercerSC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0362.9664.230.010.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0335.7134.55-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0348.1548.35-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.030.0343.3342.03-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.030.0353.5752.310.000.00
WyomingMWC0.030.0370.3768.780.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0348.0048.71-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0369.2369.520.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0344.4443.81-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.030.0351.7251.500.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0365.5264.800.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0344.0045.85-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.030.0360.0060.270.010.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.030.0350.0049.980.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.030.0372.4172.010.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0342.8645.01-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0325.0026.35-0.02-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0358.6258.910.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.030.0355.5656.790.000.00
VCUA100.030.0372.4172.030.010.01