Hampton

Conference:	MEAC
Expected RPI:	287.0
Current RPI:	287
Expected SOS:	331
Current SOS:	331
Current Record:	14-17
Expected Record:	14-17
Current Conf Record:	11-6
Expected Conf Record:	11-6
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	11-11
Current OOC Record:	3-11
Expected OOC Record:	3-11
Expected OOC RPI:	332
Expected OOC SOS:	296

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
14-17	287.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Hampton.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	William & Mary (271.0)	CAA	A	69-51	L	0%
11-15	Richmond (92.0)	A10	A	68-58	L	0%
11-20	Ohio (67.0)	MAC	A	75-67	L	0%
11-23	Wofford (250.0)	SC	N	56-51	L	0%
11-25	NC Wilmington (301.0)	CAA	A	61-60	L	0%
11-28	Radford (316.0)	BSth	A	73-64	L	0%
12-1	Howard (334.0)	MEAC	H	58-50	W	100%
12-8	Robert Morris (132.0)	NEC	H	54-66	L	0%
12-18	American (278.0)	Pat	H	72-65	W	100%
12-20	Northern Kentucky (264.0)	ASun	H	52-54	L	0%
12-30	Winthrop (269.0)	BSth	A	50-43	L	0%
1-2	South Carolina Upstate (225.0)	ASun	A	68-49	L	0%
1-7	James Madison (182.0)	CAA	H	69-65	W	100%
1-12	Howard (334.0)	MEAC	A	49-51	W	100%
1-14	Quinnipiac (191.0)	NEC	H	70-64	W	100%
1-19	Morgan St. (236.0)	MEAC	H	78-80	L	0%
1-21	Coppin St. (313.0)	MEAC	H	65-67	L	0%
1-26	Norfolk St. (178.0)	MEAC	A	74-67	L	0%
1-30	South Carolina St. (342.0)	MEAC	A	60-64	W	100%
2-2	Morgan St. (236.0)	MEAC	A	62-64	W	100%
2-4	Coppin St. (313.0)	MEAC	A	53-59	W	100%
2-7	Savannah St. (166.0)	MEAC	A	68-71	W	100%
2-11	Delaware St. (263.0)	MEAC	H	85-84	W	100%
2-18	Norfolk St. (178.0)	MEAC	H	59-62	L	0%
2-20	Maryland Eastern Shore (345.0)	MEAC	A	59-63	W	100%
2-23	St. Peter's (290.0)	MAAC	H	59-66	L	0%
2-25	Delaware St. (263.0)	MEAC	A	50-57	W	100%
3-2	Florida A&M (331.0)	MEAC	H	77-68	W	100%
3-4	Bethune Cookman (277.0)	MEAC	H	75-66	W	100%
3-7	North Carolina Central (155.0)	MEAC	H	64-68	L	0%
3-14	Delaware St. (263.0)	MEAC	H	60-63	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Hampton's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Hampton's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Hampton.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Hampton	MEAC	26.19	26.19	45.16	45.16	-2.53	-2.53
Delaware St.	MEAC	5.43	5.43	42.86	42.86	-0.78	-0.78
Howard	MEAC	3.91	3.91	22.22	22.22	-2.17	-2.17
Morgan St.	MEAC	3.89	3.89	53.33	53.33	0.26	0.26
Norfolk St.	MEAC	3.83	3.83	63.33	63.33	1.02	1.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	3.81	3.81	20.69	20.69	-2.23	-2.23
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	2.37	2.37	7.41	7.41	-2.02	-2.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	2.25	2.25	38.71	38.71	-0.51	-0.51
Savannah St.	MEAC	2.18	2.18	56.67	56.67	0.29	0.29
South Carolina St.	MEAC	2.17	2.17	14.81	14.81	-1.52	-1.52
North Carolina Central	MEAC	2.12	2.12	66.67	66.67	0.71	0.71
Florida A&M	MEAC	2.09	2.09	21.43	21.43	-1.20	-1.20
William & Mary	CAA	1.85	1.85	39.29	39.29	-0.40	-0.40
James Madison	CAA	1.81	1.81	60.61	60.61	0.38	0.38
NC Wilmington	CAA	1.79	1.79	28.57	28.57	-0.77	-0.77
Ohio	MAC	1.77	1.77	71.88	71.88	0.78	0.78
Winthrop	BSth	1.77	1.77	37.04	37.04	-0.46	-0.46
Richmond	A10	1.74	1.74	54.84	54.84	0.17	0.17
American	Pat	1.72	1.72	34.48	34.48	-0.53	-0.53
Wofford	SC	1.72	1.72	36.67	36.67	-0.46	-0.46
Robert Morris	NEC	1.72	1.72	68.75	68.75	0.64	0.64
Radford	BSth	1.70	1.70	32.14	32.14	-0.61	-0.61
Quinnipiac	NEC	1.69	1.69	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	1.67	1.67	43.33	43.33	-0.22	-0.22
Northern Kentucky	ASun	1.66	1.66	38.46	38.46	-0.38	-0.38
St. Peter's	MAAC	1.61	1.61	27.59	27.59	-0.72	-0.72
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.80	0.80	52.94	52.94	0.05	0.05
Delaware	CAA	0.26	0.26	57.58	57.58	0.04	0.04
Liberty	BSth	0.24	0.24	37.50	37.50	-0.06	-0.06
Towson	CAA	0.24	0.24	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
Old Dominion	CAA	0.23	0.23	16.67	16.67	-0.16	-0.16
Navy	Pat	0.21	0.21	23.33	23.33	-0.11	-0.11
Wagner	NEC	0.21	0.21	61.29	61.29	0.05	0.05
Marshall	CUSA	0.21	0.21	38.71	38.71	-0.05	-0.05
Jacksonville	ASun	0.19	0.19	40.00	40.00	-0.04	-0.04
North Florida	ASun	0.19	0.19	38.71	38.71	-0.04	-0.04
Stetson	ASun	0.19	0.19	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.19	0.19	70.97	70.97	0.08	0.08
George Mason	CAA	0.18	0.18	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.18	0.18	22.58	22.58	-0.10	-0.10
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.17	0.17	10.00	10.00	-0.13	-0.13
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.17	0.17	60.00	60.00	0.03	0.03
Campbell	BSth	0.16	0.16	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
High Point	BSth	0.16	0.16	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.16	0.16	19.35	19.35	-0.10	-0.10
Pittsburgh	BE	0.16	0.16	75.00	75.00	0.08	0.08
Georgia St.	CAA	0.16	0.16	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.16	0.16	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.16	0.16	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.15	0.15	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.15	0.15	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.15	0.15	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
NC Asheville	BSth	0.14	0.14	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.14	0.14	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Iowa	B10	0.14	0.14	63.64	63.64	0.04	0.04
Maryland	ACC	0.14	0.14	64.71	64.71	0.04	0.04
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.14	0.14	29.03	29.03	-0.06	-0.06
Hofstra	CAA	0.13	0.13	19.35	19.35	-0.08	-0.08
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.13	0.13	39.29	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
Central Florida	CUSA	0.13	0.13	62.07	62.07	0.03	0.03
Colgate	Pat	0.13	0.13	34.38	34.38	-0.04	-0.04
Arkansas	SEC	0.13	0.13	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.13	0.13	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Long Island	NEC	0.13	0.13	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.13	0.13	23.33	23.33	-0.07	-0.07
Illinois St.	MVC	0.13	0.13	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.13	0.13	17.24	17.24	-0.08	-0.08
Akron	MAC	0.13	0.13	80.65	80.65	0.08	0.08
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.11	0.11	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Presbyterian	BSth	0.11	0.11	17.24	17.24	-0.07	-0.07
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.11	0.11	68.75	68.75	0.04	0.04
Lipscomb	ASun	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Siena	MAAC	0.11	0.11	25.00	25.00	-0.06	-0.06
Boston University	AE	0.11	0.11	58.62	58.62	0.02	0.02
Davidson	SC	0.11	0.11	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Lehigh	Pat	0.10	0.10	68.97	68.97	0.04	0.04
Holy Cross	Pat	0.10	0.10	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
San Diego	WCC	0.10	0.10	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.10	0.10	24.14	24.14	-0.05	-0.05
Drexel	CAA	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.10	0.10	31.25	31.25	-0.04	-0.04
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.10	0.10	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.10	0.10	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.10	0.10	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
Ball St.	MAC	0.10	0.10	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.10	0.10	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.09	0.09	42.31	42.31	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Wichita St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
Albany	AE	0.08	0.08	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Utah Valley	GWC	0.08	0.08	35.71	35.71	-0.02	-0.02
Rutgers	BE	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Western Carolina	SC	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Army	Pat	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Fairfield	MAAC	0.08	0.08	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.08	0.08	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
The Citadel	SC	0.08	0.08	21.43	21.43	-0.05	-0.05
South Carolina	SEC	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.08	0.08	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Rider	MAAC	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Western Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.08	0.08	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.08	0.08	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Virginia	ACC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Xavier	A10	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Monmouth	NEC	0.07	0.07	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.07	0.07	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Kent St.	MAC	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.07	0.07	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Bowling Green	MAC	0.07	0.07	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Tech	B12	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.06	0.06	48.00	48.00	-0.00	-0.00
San Francisco	WCC	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Oregon St.	P12	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Purdue	B10	0.06	0.06	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Bucknell	Pat	0.05	0.05	84.38	84.38	0.04	0.04
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Lafayette	Pat	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Florida International	SB	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Elon	SC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Furman	SC	0.05	0.05	17.24	17.24	-0.03	-0.03
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Southern California	P12	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Western Illinois	Sum	0.05	0.05	71.43	71.43	0.02	0.02
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.05	0.05	53.85	53.85	0.00	0.00
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Hawaii	BW	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Missouri	SEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
South Florida	BE	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Houston	CUSA	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
West Virginia	B12	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.03	0.03	6.90	6.90	-0.02	-0.02
Columbia	Ivy	0.03	0.03	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Baylor	B12	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Hartford	AE	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Maine	AE	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Samford	SC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Vermont	AE	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Butler	A10	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
New Orleans	ind	0.03	0.03	18.18	18.18	-0.02	-0.02
Temple	A10	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Valparaiso	Horz	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.02	0.02	80.00	80.00	0.01	0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.02	0.02	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.02	0.02	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Oakland	Sum	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Oklahoma	B12	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Portland	WCC	0.02	0.02	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.02	0.02	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.02	0.02	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
San Jose St.	WAC	0.02	0.02	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.02	0.02	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01