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Through games of Jan 20, 2017.


Hampton

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:307.5
Current RPI:321
Expected SOS:340
Current SOS:282
Current Record:4-11
Expected Record:10-16
Current Conf Record:3-1
Expected Conf Record:9-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-9
Current OOC Record:1-10
Expected OOC Record:1-10
Expected OOC RPI:328
Expected OOC SOS:160



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-11237.40.25%
14-12250.42.07%
13-13267.87.32%
12-14285.716.15%
11-15302.923.57%
10-16316.722.85%
9-17327.816.25%
8-18335.78.07%
7-19340.92.68%
6-20344.50.71%
5-21347.70.07%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Hampton.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Rider (190.5)MAACH56-67L0%0.0
11-20Kansas St. (63.0)B12A89-67L0%0.0
11-22Richmond (115.2)A10A65-52L0%0.0
11-25Robert Morris (266.4)NECN62-48L0%0.0
11-26Stony Brook (171.8)AEN66-76L0%0.0
11-29East Carolina (236.6)AmerA68-48L0%0.0
12-3William & Mary (146.1)CAAH79-69W100%0.0
12-7Gardner Webb (208.2)BSthA69-63L0%0.0
12-17Winthrop (88.9)BSthH79-86L0%0.0
12-21Appalachian St. (259.2)SBA88-67L0%0.0
12-28Princeton (86.3)IvyA77-49L0%0.0
1-4North Carolina A&T (348.7)MEACH68-53W100%0.0
1-9Savannah St. (325.9)MEACH84-80W100%0.0
1-14Delaware St. (322.0)MEACA77-85W100%0.0
1-16North Carolina Central (193.4)MEACH51-64L0%0.0
1-21Norfolk St. (311.5)MEACA0-040%-2.9
1-30Coppin St. (327.7)MEACH0-082%10.1
2-1Maryland Eastern Shore (302.8)MEACH0-060%2.9
2-4Savannah St. (325.9)MEACA0-055%1.3
2-6South Carolina St. (302.4)MEACA0-050%-0.1
2-11Howard (324.7)MEACH0-067%4.8
2-18Bethune Cookman (346.3)MEACA0-057%2.1
2-20Florida A&M (348.3)MEACA0-065%4.2
2-25Morgan St. (319.2)MEACA0-044%-1.7
2-27Norfolk St. (311.5)MEACH0-062%3.3
3-2Coppin St. (327.7)MEACA0-064%3.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Hampton's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Hampton's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Hampton.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
HamptonMEAC26.4926.1024.6242.56-13.45-3.88
Savannah St.MEAC3.444.4826.6732.58-1.61-1.56
Coppin St.MEAC0.104.4122.2225.48-0.05-2.16
Norfolk St.MEAC0.314.4018.7534.64-0.20-1.35
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.102.6112.5023.70-0.08-1.38
Morgan St.MEAC0.102.6137.5044.13-0.02-0.31
North Carolina A&TMEAC3.612.610.0014.96-3.61-1.83
HowardMEAC0.102.5812.5028.32-0.07-1.12
Florida A&MMEAC0.192.5712.5019.39-0.14-1.58
North Carolina CentralMEAC3.522.5757.1471.760.501.12
Delaware St.MEAC3.542.5518.7530.66-2.21-0.99
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.212.5512.5033.61-0.16-0.83
South Carolina St.MEAC0.102.5414.2928.39-0.07-1.10
Gardner WebbBSth3.432.0637.5047.35-0.86-0.11
East CarolinaAmer3.542.0344.4439.55-0.39-0.42
William & MaryCAA3.441.9950.0049.440.00-0.02
WinthropBSth3.331.9973.3374.481.560.98
Kansas St.B123.511.9976.4761.011.860.44
Robert MorrisNEC3.521.9931.5837.75-1.30-0.49
RiderMAAC3.431.9655.5651.390.380.05
RichmondA103.421.9558.8256.410.600.25
Appalachian St.SB3.331.9223.0828.84-1.79-0.81
PrincetonIvy3.331.9257.1464.760.480.57
Stony BrookAE3.331.9252.9452.800.200.11
LibertyBSth0.320.2147.0651.38-0.020.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.210.2162.5060.090.050.04
PresbyterianBSth0.300.2112.5013.05-0.23-0.15
CampbellBSth0.200.1743.7542.60-0.03-0.03
High PointBSth0.200.1737.5042.27-0.05-0.03
HofstraCAA0.200.1742.1143.49-0.03-0.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.230.1743.7543.71-0.03-0.02
TowsonCAA0.180.1752.6354.610.010.02
BucknellPat0.290.1770.0071.890.110.07
UMBCAE0.190.1662.5058.830.050.03
South FloridaAmer0.180.1635.2928.97-0.05-0.07
James MadisonCAA0.320.1426.3229.57-0.15-0.06
JacksonvilleASun0.100.1452.9450.590.010.00
BrownIvy0.200.1447.0642.91-0.01-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.090.1446.1546.15-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.200.1420.0030.55-0.12-0.05
LongwoodBSth0.200.1425.0023.83-0.10-0.07
RadfordBSth0.200.1441.1844.82-0.04-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.200.1461.1169.300.040.05
MonmouthMAAC0.200.1475.0074.450.100.07
Grambling St.SWAC0.290.1425.0029.54-0.14-0.06
VCUA100.110.1373.6870.630.050.06
Kennesaw St.ASun0.190.1327.7832.97-0.08-0.05
Iowa St.B120.100.1364.7161.830.030.03
NiagaraMAAC0.090.1326.3227.72-0.04-0.06
Sacred HeartNEC0.080.1340.0040.81-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.190.1315.7920.51-0.13-0.08
HartfordAE0.300.1330.0028.54-0.12-0.06
ManhattanMAAC0.190.1335.0036.31-0.06-0.04
Saint LouisA100.200.1327.7824.32-0.09-0.07
George WashingtonA100.090.1352.6348.070.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.280.1380.0077.810.170.07
UCFAmer0.090.1377.7867.020.050.04
Boston CollegeACC0.280.1347.3734.50-0.01-0.04
MarylandB100.280.1388.8973.830.220.06
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.1340.0050.05-0.000.00
WagnerNEC0.170.1337.5047.61-0.04-0.01
FurmanSC0.200.1152.9458.360.010.02
DelawareCAA0.100.1133.3330.90-0.03-0.04
HarvardIvy0.000.1158.3361.560.000.02
NortheasternCAA0.200.1163.1659.530.050.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.110.1155.5656.000.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.1135.2935.14-0.00-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.200.1073.6869.690.090.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.200.1088.8986.040.150.08
PennIvy0.190.1042.8647.98-0.03-0.00
ClemsonACC0.000.1061.1159.230.000.02
IowaB100.200.1055.0049.300.02-0.00
BYUWCC0.110.1070.0068.710.040.04
MemphisAmer0.100.1073.6867.200.050.04
Old DominionCUSA0.200.1061.1162.280.050.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.1025.0028.40-0.00-0.04
New HampshireAE0.200.1056.2558.170.020.02
LehighPat0.290.1052.9463.420.020.03
StetsonASun0.090.1029.4130.28-0.04-0.04
DavidsonA100.210.1052.9453.560.010.01
AkronMAC0.000.1083.3376.940.000.05
BinghamtonAE0.100.1035.2937.32-0.03-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.000.1052.6348.210.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.190.1063.1660.780.050.02
BuffaloMAC0.080.1037.5044.96-0.02-0.01
HoustonAmer0.090.1068.4268.060.030.03
MassachusettsA100.190.1063.1660.390.050.02
St. Francis PANEC0.180.1035.2944.13-0.05-0.01
FordhamA100.180.1038.8935.26-0.04-0.03
Texas TechB120.190.0977.7865.330.100.03
CornellIvy0.000.0720.0024.53-0.00-0.04
DartmouthIvy0.000.0721.4323.06-0.00-0.04
ElonCAA0.110.0750.0051.340.000.00
YaleIvy0.110.0760.0065.720.020.02
DukeACC0.230.0777.7873.860.130.03
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0778.9582.980.000.05
Arkansas St.SB0.120.0764.7165.930.040.02
ButlerBE0.000.0784.2178.340.000.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.100.0770.5973.700.040.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0731.5832.58-0.00-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0744.4443.57-0.00-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0753.3355.990.000.01
Little RockSB0.120.0756.2551.110.010.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0761.1159.670.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0770.5958.250.000.01
OregonP120.100.0788.8983.420.080.05
Oregon St.P120.100.0716.6713.65-0.07-0.05
PurdueB100.000.0778.9576.890.000.04
San Diego St.MWC0.100.0758.8264.380.020.02
Texas St.SB0.120.0753.3345.980.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.120.0768.7570.270.040.03
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0744.4442.60-0.00-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.230.0723.5321.80-0.12-0.04
HawaiiBW0.210.0743.7546.21-0.03-0.01
SamfordSC0.000.0764.7160.050.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.110.0764.7167.120.030.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.200.0747.0646.29-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.100.0762.5062.710.020.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0752.9455.050.000.01
DrexelCAA0.090.0733.3333.71-0.03-0.02
DaytonA100.200.0776.4776.940.100.04
RutgersB100.090.0755.5642.900.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.100.0745.0038.54-0.01-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.090.0741.1837.57-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.210.0743.7543.70-0.03-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.210.0768.4252.190.080.00
TennesseeSEC0.120.0747.0648.42-0.01-0.00
VMISC0.190.0713.3315.24-0.14-0.05
AlbanyAE0.090.0752.6358.980.000.01
AmericanPat0.000.0727.7830.73-0.00-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.000.0764.7156.100.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0761.1163.070.000.02
MaineAE0.090.0720.0020.95-0.06-0.04
MichiganB100.000.0763.1658.150.000.01
UMass LowellAE0.090.0740.0040.47-0.02-0.01
UtahP120.000.0768.7567.640.000.02
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0777.7877.270.000.04
VermontAE0.000.0775.0077.360.000.04
Colorado St.MWC0.090.0652.9450.600.010.00
PacificWCC0.190.0636.8435.66-0.05-0.02
George MasonA100.000.0664.7156.510.000.01
DuquesneA100.080.0647.3741.47-0.00-0.01
BaylorB120.090.0694.1280.880.080.04
BryantNEC0.000.0621.0533.56-0.00-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0660.0061.270.000.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.080.0611.1116.28-0.06-0.04
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0635.2941.77-0.00-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.090.0647.0649.89-0.01-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.080.0641.1846.85-0.01-0.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0660.0063.140.000.02
KansasB120.090.0694.4481.800.080.04
MaristMAAC0.090.0631.5829.24-0.03-0.03
OklahomaB120.090.0647.0641.20-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.090.0652.9450.580.010.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0642.1141.75-0.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.090.0655.5656.750.010.01
SienaMAAC0.180.0640.0045.18-0.04-0.01
TCUB120.000.0676.4763.630.000.02
TempleAmer0.090.0650.0053.120.000.00
TexasB120.090.0638.8935.38-0.02-0.02
TulaneAmer0.000.0622.2220.60-0.00-0.04
TulsaAmer0.000.0658.8251.180.000.00
VirginiaACC0.170.0682.3576.300.110.03
West VirginiaB120.000.0683.3380.700.000.04
Holy CrossPat0.000.0450.0051.660.000.00
Miami FLACC0.000.0470.5960.550.000.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0488.8987.310.000.03
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0482.3574.990.000.02
SyracuseACC0.000.0457.8952.520.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0452.9451.020.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.110.0418.7527.05-0.07-0.02
CaliforniaP120.110.0468.4264.450.040.01
Central MichiganMAC0.110.0456.2551.810.010.00
LafayettePat0.110.0429.4123.71-0.05-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.110.0484.2179.280.080.02
Florida St.ACC0.100.0489.4779.540.080.02
IllinoisB100.100.0461.1153.360.020.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.110.0431.2545.45-0.04-0.00
LSUSEC0.110.0452.9438.780.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.110.0455.5660.070.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.110.0428.5733.61-0.05-0.01
MissouriSEC0.110.0429.4125.93-0.05-0.02
Ohio St.B100.110.0463.1658.020.030.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.0443.7541.41-0.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.0437.5051.21-0.000.00
TroySB0.000.0447.0648.13-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.000.0483.3381.320.000.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0337.5044.22-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0326.3232.63-0.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.100.0353.3356.530.010.00
GeorgiaSEC0.100.0364.7158.520.030.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0347.0644.32-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.100.0347.0641.67-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0388.2484.520.000.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0340.0038.59-0.00-0.01
Penn St.B100.000.0357.8949.820.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.100.0363.1651.610.030.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.0350.0043.680.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0357.8957.540.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.100.0361.1147.020.02-0.00
IndianaB100.100.0368.4264.610.040.01
IUPUISum0.000.0338.8943.16-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0352.6352.920.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0364.7169.700.000.01
Loyola MDPat0.090.0347.0646.22-0.01-0.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0366.6761.530.000.01
Montana St.BSky0.100.0333.3340.46-0.03-0.01
NJITASun0.090.0338.8942.49-0.02-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.100.0364.7162.600.030.01
North TexasCUSA0.100.0325.0029.15-0.05-0.01
Notre DameACC0.100.0384.2176.540.070.02
RiceCUSA0.100.0358.8264.790.020.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.0350.0066.300.000.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.100.0370.5964.080.040.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0318.7524.05-0.00-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0377.7862.530.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.100.0347.3745.06-0.01-0.00
La SalleA100.000.0368.7564.060.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.090.0322.2229.94-0.05-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.090.0366.6762.870.030.01
Wake ForestACC0.090.0361.1155.580.020.00
CincinnatiAmer0.090.0388.8986.560.070.02
DePaulBE0.080.0342.1130.39-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.090.0352.9450.950.010.00
MercerSC0.090.0333.3343.06-0.03-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.090.0352.6353.100.000.00
OaklandHorz0.080.0372.2274.630.040.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.090.0317.6535.33-0.06-0.01
Washington St.P120.090.0347.0633.39-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.090.0326.6727.53-0.04-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0336.8433.59-0.02-0.01