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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Hampton

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:204.0
Current RPI:204
Expected SOS:326
Current SOS:326
Current Record:18-12
Expected Record:18-12
Current Conf Record:13-5
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:16-7
Current OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:183
Expected OOC SOS:135



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-12204.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Hampton.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8William & Mary (119.0)CAAH77-69W100%0.0
11-12Saint Peter's (231.0)MAACA59-64W100%0.0
11-17Delaware (65.0)CAAH79-90L0%0.0
11-20Quinnipiac (105.0)MAACA71-68L0%0.0
11-24Missouri St. (85.0)MVCA81-67L0%0.0
11-26Virginia (8.0)ACCA69-40L0%0.0
11-29Liberty (311.0)BSthN70-53L0%0.0
11-30Arkansas Pine Bluff (264.0)SWACN72-65W100%0.0
12-7Florida A&M (295.0)MEACH72-62W100%0.0
12-9Bethune Cookman (343.0)MEACH85-52W100%0.0
12-18Northern Kentucky (310.0)ASunA69-67L0%0.0
12-21James Madison (233.0)CAAN55-49L0%0.0
12-29Winthrop (168.0)BSthH101-95W100%0.0
1-4Radford (240.0)BSthH87-60W100%0.0
1-7North Carolina Central (99.0)MEACA74-61L0%0.0
1-11Delaware St. (329.0)MEACA60-73W100%0.0
1-18Coppin St. (261.0)MEACH68-71L0%0.0
1-20Morgan St. (225.0)MEACH71-80L0%0.0
1-25Savannah St. (273.0)MEACA71-80W100%0.0
1-27South Carolina St. (331.0)MEACA56-67W100%0.0
2-1Coppin St. (261.0)MEACA76-79W100%0.0
2-3Morgan St. (225.0)MEACA94-92L0%0.0
2-8Howard (323.0)MEACH63-47W100%0.0
2-10Maryland Eastern Shore (347.0)MEACH71-65W100%0.0
2-15Norfolk St. (227.0)MEACA73-79W100%0.0
2-22Howard (323.0)MEACA78-81W100%0.0
2-24Maryland Eastern Shore (347.0)MEACA89-104W100%0.0
3-1Norfolk St. (227.0)MEACH61-53W100%0.0
3-6North Carolina A&T (336.0)MEACH89-71W100%0.0
3-12Coppin St. (261.0)MEACN77-83L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Hampton's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Hampton's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Hampton.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
HamptonMEAC26.2126.2161.9761.976.286.28
Coppin St.MEAC5.675.6732.1432.14-2.03-2.03
Norfolk St.MEAC4.144.1457.1457.140.590.59
Morgan St.MEAC4.114.1144.8344.83-0.42-0.42
HowardMEAC4.064.0620.6920.69-2.38-2.38
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC4.024.0219.2319.23-2.47-2.47
North Carolina CentralMEAC2.472.4783.3383.331.651.65
Delaware St.MEAC2.442.4425.9325.93-1.17-1.17
Savannah St.MEAC2.312.3137.9337.93-0.56-0.56
North Carolina A&TMEAC2.312.3126.6726.67-1.08-1.08
Florida A&MMEAC2.302.3041.3841.38-0.40-0.40
Bethune CookmanMEAC2.282.2817.2417.24-1.49-1.49
South Carolina St.MEAC2.252.2525.9325.93-1.08-1.08
LibertyBSth1.931.9325.0025.00-0.97-0.97
William & MaryCAA1.881.8863.3363.330.500.50
DelawareCAA1.861.8672.7372.730.850.85
James MadisonCAA1.821.8233.3333.33-0.61-0.61
WinthropBSth1.811.8158.6258.620.310.31
VirginiaACC1.801.8081.8281.821.151.15
RadfordBSth1.781.7862.0762.070.430.43
QuinnipiacMAAC1.721.7263.3363.330.460.46
Saint Peter'sMAAC1.721.7246.6746.67-0.11-0.11
Missouri St.MVC1.721.7260.0060.000.340.34
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC1.671.6739.2939.29-0.36-0.36
Northern KentuckyASun1.671.6727.5927.59-0.75-0.75
TowsonCAA0.340.3467.7467.740.120.12
High PointBSth0.280.2850.0050.000.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.240.2441.9441.94-0.04-0.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.220.2248.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.200.2060.0060.000.040.04
CampbellBSth0.200.2032.1432.14-0.07-0.07
Oregon St.P120.200.2051.6151.610.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.190.1923.3323.33-0.10-0.10
HofstraCAA0.180.1830.3030.30-0.07-0.07
NortheasternCAA0.180.1834.3834.38-0.06-0.06
NJITind0.170.1736.0036.00-0.05-0.05
LongwoodBSth0.170.1714.2914.29-0.12-0.12
VMIBSth0.170.1755.5655.560.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.170.1756.2556.250.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.160.1629.0329.03-0.07-0.07
ManhattanMAAC0.160.1678.1278.120.090.09
MaristMAAC0.160.1638.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.160.1633.3333.33-0.05-0.05
RichmondA100.160.1657.5857.580.020.02
DrexelCAA0.160.1653.3353.330.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
UMBCAE0.140.1427.5927.59-0.06-0.06
PresbyterianBSth0.140.1413.3313.33-0.10-0.10
North FloridaASun0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.130.1321.8821.88-0.08-0.08
MonmouthMAAC0.130.1334.3834.38-0.04-0.04
NiagaraMAAC0.130.1321.2121.21-0.08-0.08
Old DominionCUSA0.130.1348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.130.13100.00100.000.130.13
PittsburghACC0.130.1373.5373.530.060.06
MarylandACC0.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
AmericanPat0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
JacksonvilleASun0.110.1135.7135.71-0.03-0.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
NavyPat0.110.1127.5927.59-0.05-0.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
StetsonASun0.110.1122.5822.58-0.06-0.06
MichiganB100.110.1175.7675.760.060.06
Boston UniversityPat0.110.1170.5970.590.050.05
AkronMAC0.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
ToledoMAC0.110.1181.2581.250.070.07
Miami FLACC0.110.1151.5251.520.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
IonaMAAC0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
RiderMAAC0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
IowaB100.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.0942.4242.42-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.090.0930.3030.30-0.03-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.0814.8114.81-0.06-0.06
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
ClemsonACC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
East Tennessee St.ASun0.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
San DiegoWCC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
La SalleA100.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
WagnerNEC0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
Ohio St.B100.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
Notre DameACC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
DaytonA100.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
George WashingtonA100.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.060.0670.3770.370.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
FIUCUSA0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
LipscombASun0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MercerASun0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.060.0616.1316.13-0.04-0.04
SeattleWAC0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SC0.050.0519.2319.23-0.03-0.03
BinghamtonAE0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
CornellIvy0.050.053.703.70-0.05-0.05
DetroitHorz0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
RutgersAmer0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
WoffordSC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
HartfordAE0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
HarvardIvy0.050.0586.2186.210.040.04
HoustonAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
OregonP120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
USCP120.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
DukeACC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
BuffaloMAC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0341.1841.18-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
FurmanSC0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
BaylorB120.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.030.0394.1294.120.020.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
TulaneCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UABCUSA0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
UNLVMWC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
UtahP120.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
AlbanyAE0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
IUPUISum0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LehighPat0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleAmer0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
MaineAE0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Oral RobertsSlnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0393.1093.100.020.02
TulsaCUSA0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
VermontAE0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
ArmyPat0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
DavidsonSC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Green BayHorz0.020.0277.7877.780.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0278.5778.570.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
SyracuseACC0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
VillanovaBE0.020.0287.5087.500.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
WisconsinB100.020.0278.7978.790.010.01