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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Hofstra

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:277.0
Current RPI:277
Expected SOS:187
Current SOS:187
Current Record:10-23
Expected Record:10-23
Current Conf Record:6-12
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-9
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-8
Current OOC Record:4-11
Expected OOC Record:4-11
Expected OOC RPI:288
Expected OOC SOS:175



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-23277.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Hofstra.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Monmouth (292.0)MAACH84-88L0%0.0
11-10Fairleigh Dickinson (269.0)NECH80-58W100%0.0
11-12Louisville (19.0)AmerA97-69L0%0.0
11-19Richmond (75.0)A10A74-63L0%0.0
11-23Hartford (234.0)AEN81-78W100%0.0
11-24Belmont (57.0)OVCN85-75L0%0.0
11-30Manhattan (60.0)MAACH59-66L0%0.0
12-4Sacred Heart (338.0)NECH59-73L0%0.0
12-15Central Connecticut (293.0)NECH72-67W100%0.0
12-23Siena (193.0)MAACA67-59L0%0.0
12-28George Washington (29.0)A10H58-69L0%0.0
12-30NJIT (308.0)indH75-64W100%0.0
1-2Tulane (223.0)CUSAA61-58L0%0.0
1-5Fairleigh Dickinson (269.0)NECA86-67L0%0.0
1-8Delaware (65.0)CAAA86-79L0%0.0
1-11College of Charleston (242.0)CAAH75-71W100%0.0
1-15UNC Wilmington (281.0)CAAA64-69W100%0.0
1-19SMU (53.0)AmerA73-49L0%0.0
1-22William & Mary (119.0)CAAH77-60W100%0.0
1-25Northeastern (222.0)CAAH57-70L0%0.0
1-27Towson (95.0)CAAA76-58L0%0.0
1-29Drexel (132.0)CAAH74-77L0%0.0
2-1College of Charleston (242.0)CAAA67-49L0%0.0
2-5Northeastern (222.0)CAAA81-73L0%0.0
2-8UNC Wilmington (281.0)CAAH61-52W100%0.0
2-10James Madison (233.0)CAAA59-53L0%0.0
2-16Drexel (132.0)CAAA74-63L0%0.0
2-19Delaware (65.0)CAAH77-81L0%0.0
2-22Towson (95.0)CAAH77-83L0%0.0
2-26William & Mary (119.0)CAAA79-74L0%0.0
3-1James Madison (233.0)CAAH82-71W100%0.0
3-7UNC Wilmington (281.0)CAAN78-70W100%0.0
3-8Delaware (65.0)CAAN87-76L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Hofstra's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Hofstra's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Hofstra.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
HofstraCAA26.4326.4326.5726.57-12.39-12.39
DelawareCAA5.405.4070.9770.972.272.27
UNC WilmingtonCAA5.295.2925.9325.93-2.55-2.55
NortheasternCAA4.004.0030.0030.00-1.60-1.60
William & MaryCAA3.993.9962.0762.070.960.96
TowsonCAA3.903.9065.5265.521.211.21
James MadisonCAA3.883.8834.4834.48-1.20-1.20
College of CharlestonCAA3.883.8841.3841.38-0.67-0.67
DrexelCAA3.853.8550.0050.000.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC3.153.1529.6329.63-1.29-1.29
RichmondA101.771.7756.2556.250.220.22
Central ConnecticutNEC1.771.7735.7135.71-0.51-0.51
ManhattanMAAC1.711.7177.4277.420.940.94
Sacred HeartNEC1.691.6913.3313.33-1.24-1.24
HartfordAE1.641.6453.1253.120.100.10
LouisvilleAmer1.631.6384.8584.851.141.14
MonmouthMAAC1.611.6132.2632.26-0.57-0.57
SienaMAAC1.611.6145.1645.16-0.16-0.16
TulaneCUSA1.591.5948.3948.39-0.05-0.05
NJITind1.561.5637.5037.50-0.39-0.39
George WashingtonA101.561.5674.1974.190.760.76
SMUAmer1.561.5670.9770.970.650.65
BelmontOVC1.541.5470.9770.970.650.65
FairfieldMAAC0.310.3121.8821.88-0.17-0.17
RutgersAmer0.290.2934.3834.38-0.09-0.09
BryantNEC0.270.2754.8454.840.030.03
St. Francis PANEC0.260.2632.2632.26-0.09-0.09
St. Francis NYNEC0.260.2654.8454.840.030.03
WagnerNEC0.260.2660.0060.000.050.05
Robert MorrisNEC0.250.2561.7661.760.060.06
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.240.2445.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.220.2248.4848.48-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.210.2176.4776.470.110.11
Charleston SouthernBSth0.210.2133.3333.33-0.07-0.07
RiderMAAC0.190.1945.1645.16-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.190.1927.5927.59-0.09-0.09
MaristMAAC0.190.1938.7138.71-0.04-0.04
FordhamA100.190.1932.2632.26-0.07-0.07
QuinnipiacMAAC0.190.1964.5264.520.050.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
New HampshireAE0.180.1817.2417.24-0.12-0.12
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.170.1793.1093.100.150.15
Stony BrookAE0.170.1768.7568.750.060.06
CanisiusMAAC0.170.1765.6265.620.050.05
IonaMAAC0.170.1768.7568.750.060.06
HamptonMEAC0.160.1660.0060.000.030.03
St. BonaventureA100.160.1653.1253.120.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.160.1631.0331.03-0.06-0.06
North CarolinaACC0.140.1471.8871.880.060.06
NiagaraMAAC0.140.1421.2121.21-0.08-0.08
TempleAmer0.140.1429.0329.03-0.06-0.06
La SalleA100.140.1448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.140.1451.5251.520.000.00
AlbanyAE0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
MaineAE0.130.1317.8617.86-0.08-0.08
IowaB100.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.120.1248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.120.1268.9768.970.050.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Saint Joseph'sA100.120.1272.7372.730.050.05
Southern MissCUSA0.120.1280.6580.650.070.07
CharlotteCUSA0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
UMBCAE0.120.1227.5927.59-0.05-0.05
North Dakota St.Sum0.120.1278.5778.570.070.07
VillanovaBE0.120.1287.5087.500.090.09
MemphisAmer0.120.1270.9770.970.050.05
ConnecticutAmer0.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
UMass LowellAE0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Seton HallBE0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
ArizonaP120.100.1088.2488.240.080.08
DuquesneA100.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaCUSA0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
DavidsonSC0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Western KentuckySB0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.100.1013.7913.79-0.07-0.07
High PointBSth0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
HowardMEAC0.100.1019.3519.35-0.06-0.06
The CitadelSC0.100.1013.7913.79-0.07-0.07
ArmyPat0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
Ohio St.B100.090.0973.5373.530.040.04
BinghamtonAE0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
CincinnatiAmer0.090.0981.8281.820.060.06
South FloridaAmer0.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
CampbellBSth0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Iowa St.B120.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
BuffaloMAC0.070.0764.2964.290.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
YaleIvy0.070.0751.8551.850.000.00
PurdueB100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
VirginiaACC0.070.0782.3582.350.050.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
UABCUSA0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
George MasonA100.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
Rhode IslandA100.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
VermontAE0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0683.8783.870.040.04
LafayettePat0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
PennIvy0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.050.0570.3770.370.020.02
BrownIvy0.050.0551.8551.850.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
ElonSC0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
UCLAP120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Arizona St.P120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
VMIBSth0.050.0555.5655.560.010.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.050.05100.00100.000.050.05
WinthropBSth0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
WoffordSC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
RadfordBSth0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
HarvardIvy0.050.0586.2186.210.030.03
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
LipscombASun0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
TulsaCUSA0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
WashingtonP120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
CornellIvy0.050.053.703.70-0.04-0.04
FIUCUSA0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
ButlerBE0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
LehighPat0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
DenverSum0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
UICHorz0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
MarylandACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.020.0259.2659.260.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0241.1841.18-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
St. John'sBE0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
TCUB120.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
UTSACUSA0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.020.0238.4638.46-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.020.0294.1294.120.020.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
MinnesotaB100.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
OhioMAC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
UMKCWAC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01