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Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


Hofstra

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:225.8
Current RPI:206
Expected SOS:203
Current SOS:323
Current Record:5-3
Expected Record:13-17
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-5
Current OOC Record:5-3
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:204
Expected OOC SOS:290



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-995.00.04%
20-10111.00.02%
19-11123.60.43%
18-12136.71.38%
17-13153.13.28%
16-14171.76.38%
15-15189.911.24%
14-16207.816.29%
13-17226.318.66%
12-18244.316.85%
11-19260.213.10%
10-20275.07.55%
9-21287.53.40%
8-22300.41.05%
7-23309.80.27%
6-24321.00.05%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Hofstra.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Coppin St. (343.7)MEACH74-72W100%0.0
11-15Sacred Heart (320.3)NECA90-86L0%0.0
11-18Manhattan (249.8)MAACA80-68L0%0.0
11-21Bradley (272.5)MVCN90-92W100%0.0
11-22Vermont (86.8)AEN73-87L0%0.0
11-23South Dakota (217.7)SumN57-65W100%0.0
11-29Columbia (252.2)IvyA86-88W100%0.0
12-3Florida Atlantic (280.5)CUSAA80-88W100%0.0
12-6St. Bonaventure (59.0)A10H0-020%-10.3
12-11Kentucky (9.3)SECN0-01%-26.9
12-13Stony Brook (275.0)AEH0-069%6.1
12-22Siena (136.1)MAACH0-043%-2.0
12-31Delaware (219.8)CAAA0-036%-4.3
1-2William & Mary (168.5)CAAH0-047%-0.9
1-5James Madison (255.3)CAAH0-061%3.4
1-7College of Charleston (115.6)CAAA0-020%-10.2
1-12Elon (126.5)CAAA0-022%-9.2
1-14UNC Wilmington (47.3)CAAA0-09%-15.7
1-19Towson (157.6)CAAH0-042%-2.5
1-21Northeastern (182.8)CAAH0-050%0.1
1-26Drexel (222.0)CAAA0-039%-3.4
1-28Elon (126.5)CAAH0-040%-2.9
2-2Delaware (219.8)CAAH0-057%2.0
2-4Drexel (222.0)CAAH0-059%2.9
2-9Towson (157.6)CAAA0-023%-8.8
2-11Northeastern (182.8)CAAA0-030%-6.2
2-16College of Charleston (115.6)CAAH0-037%-3.9
2-18UNC Wilmington (47.3)CAAH0-022%-9.4
2-23William & Mary (168.5)CAAA0-027%-7.2
2-25James Madison (255.3)CAAA0-041%-2.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Hofstra's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Hofstra's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Hofstra.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
HofstraCAA28.3226.3671.0542.8311.93-3.78
NortheasternCAA0.004.3050.0043.300.00-0.58
TowsonCAA0.004.2742.8652.16-0.000.18
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.004.2783.3376.570.002.27
DelawareCAA0.454.2750.0041.130.00-0.76
College of CharlestonCAA0.004.2466.6760.850.000.92
DrexelCAA0.004.2450.0039.860.00-0.86
James MadisonCAA0.004.2412.5029.36-0.00-1.75
ElonCAA0.004.2471.4358.780.000.74
William & MaryCAA0.004.2333.3344.66-0.00-0.45
Stony BrookAE0.451.8728.5738.42-0.19-0.43
VermontAE6.251.8157.1470.330.890.73
SienaMAAC0.001.7837.5051.86-0.000.07
St. BonaventureA100.001.7571.4370.050.000.70
BradleyMVC6.251.7250.0028.920.00-0.73
ManhattanMAAC6.251.7214.2932.22-4.46-0.61
ColumbiaIvy6.251.7050.0044.330.00-0.19
Coppin St.MEAC6.251.670.0017.74-6.25-1.08
Florida AtlanticCUSA6.251.6720.0031.51-3.75-0.62
KentuckySEC0.001.6787.5082.270.001.08
Sacred HeartNEC6.251.6728.5731.53-2.68-0.62
South DakotaSum6.251.6757.1447.660.89-0.08
UMBCAE0.000.2280.0054.540.000.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.840.2228.5736.95-0.36-0.06
IonaMAAC0.000.2257.1464.030.000.06
Old DominionCUSA0.000.2071.4368.050.000.07
MaineAE0.000.2014.2924.15-0.00-0.10
HartfordAE0.390.2022.2226.33-0.22-0.09
MaristMAAC0.390.1944.4434.65-0.04-0.06
NiagaraMAAC0.000.1925.0035.09-0.00-0.06
YaleIvy0.390.1842.8663.41-0.060.05
AlbanyAE0.000.1742.8661.11-0.000.04
George MasonA100.450.1762.5046.900.11-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.390.1657.1450.420.060.00
MonmouthMAAC0.000.1675.0070.620.000.07
RiderMAAC0.000.1650.0048.810.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.390.1637.5044.39-0.10-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.1514.2942.67-0.00-0.02
HarvardIvy0.000.1520.0046.79-0.00-0.01
CornellIvy0.000.1528.5729.95-0.00-0.06
South FloridaAmer0.520.1557.1433.230.07-0.05
CharlotteCUSA0.000.1471.4351.460.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.450.1442.8645.30-0.06-0.01
La SalleA100.000.1466.6755.540.000.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.1414.2938.26-0.00-0.03
UMass LowellAE0.000.1422.2238.49-0.00-0.03
FairfieldMAAC0.390.1371.4359.880.170.03
PennIvy0.000.1233.3356.57-0.000.02
DukeACC0.000.1288.8978.400.000.07
FIUCUSA0.000.1214.2936.02-0.00-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.1287.5076.230.000.06
Montana St.BSky0.000.1150.0062.380.000.03
New HampshireAE0.000.1157.1458.840.000.02
RadfordBSth0.000.1128.5734.28-0.00-0.04
BinghamtonAE0.000.1150.0043.560.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.1157.1429.790.00-0.04
Boston UniversityPat0.000.1142.8654.90-0.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.1177.7849.900.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.1142.8644.71-0.00-0.01
High PointBSth0.000.1142.8646.48-0.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.1116.6736.03-0.00-0.03
St. Francis PANEC0.000.1133.3339.94-0.00-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.1116.6739.78-0.00-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.1171.4355.820.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1122.2241.71-0.00-0.02
BrownIvy0.000.0955.5646.970.00-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.090.0020.55-0.00-0.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.090.0018.64-0.00-0.06
Seton HallBE0.450.0971.4354.560.190.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0971.4356.250.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0962.5069.130.000.03
LouisvilleACC0.000.0987.5075.590.000.05
NavyPat0.000.0925.0037.38-0.00-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.0933.3330.44-0.00-0.03
RiceCUSA0.000.0975.0071.470.000.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0912.5037.99-0.00-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.350.0955.5647.890.04-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0857.1467.260.000.03
ClemsonACC0.350.0871.4354.860.150.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.350.0825.0038.83-0.17-0.02
DrakeMVC0.390.080.0019.67-0.39-0.05
Kent St.MAC0.390.0857.1454.360.060.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0842.8645.94-0.00-0.01
MarylandB100.000.0887.5059.330.000.02
RutgersB100.000.0885.7145.370.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0871.4363.170.000.02
NevadaMWC0.450.0877.7871.970.250.04
RichmondA100.000.0850.0048.210.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0811.1148.19-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.000.0844.4442.03-0.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0850.0050.840.000.00
LafayettePat0.000.0833.3333.36-0.00-0.03
LSUSEC0.000.0871.4349.170.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0855.5658.610.000.01
FordhamA100.390.0850.0041.310.00-0.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0887.5075.240.000.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0814.2926.74-0.00-0.04
PrincetonIvy0.000.0625.0063.27-0.000.02
Miami FLACC0.000.0675.0066.100.000.02
LibertyBSth0.000.0633.3348.07-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0633.3327.06-0.00-0.03
UABCUSA0.000.0650.0059.920.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0620.0035.47-0.00-0.02
UTSACUSA0.000.0625.0029.54-0.00-0.03
HowardMEAC0.000.0616.6744.34-0.00-0.01
ArmyPat0.450.0642.8650.09-0.060.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0657.1471.940.000.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.520.0675.0054.670.260.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0633.3336.74-0.00-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0614.2932.19-0.00-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.000.0642.8641.51-0.00-0.01
DenverSum0.000.0642.8645.01-0.00-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.000.0671.4370.210.000.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0642.8645.44-0.00-0.01
IUPUISum0.000.0637.5051.64-0.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0642.8630.92-0.00-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0642.8655.09-0.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0657.1458.940.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0642.8645.56-0.00-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0657.1453.990.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.060.0022.31-0.00-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0027.12-0.00-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0625.0039.59-0.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.060.0016.68-0.00-0.04
Ball St.MAC0.350.0642.8647.11-0.05-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.0633.3352.21-0.000.00
HoustonAmer0.780.0685.7178.280.560.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.390.060.0035.95-0.39-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.350.0685.7174.990.250.03
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0616.6729.80-0.00-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.000.0642.8656.04-0.000.01
CampbellBSth0.000.0642.8639.20-0.00-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0633.3339.61-0.00-0.01
DaytonA100.000.0671.4373.490.000.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0683.3379.850.000.03
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0660.0067.760.000.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0642.8650.11-0.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0620.0021.80-0.00-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0671.4363.930.000.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0671.4358.920.000.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0671.4358.600.000.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0660.0058.590.000.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0633.3352.84-0.000.00
OaklandHorz0.000.0685.7177.150.000.03
Saint LouisA100.000.0628.5723.78-0.00-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0657.1449.130.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0650.0066.300.000.02
The CitadelSC0.000.0650.0030.350.00-0.02
ToledoMAC0.000.0637.5047.91-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.000.0685.7176.240.000.03
USC UpstateASun0.000.0644.4441.30-0.00-0.01
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0084.840.000.04
Wake ForestACC0.000.0675.0054.490.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0628.5723.12-0.00-0.03
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0675.0086.710.000.04
WoffordSC0.840.060.0034.81-0.84-0.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0555.5641.690.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0575.0048.500.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.390.05100.0078.850.390.03
BryantNEC0.000.0525.0047.82-0.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.390.0566.6766.340.130.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0533.3332.92-0.00-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0557.1452.030.000.00
KansasB120.000.0587.5075.860.000.03
TennesseeSEC0.000.0540.0041.12-0.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0566.6766.180.000.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0550.0046.240.00-0.00
WagnerNEC0.000.0533.3354.47-0.000.00
ColgatePat0.450.0312.5029.71-0.33-0.01
HawaiiBW0.520.0350.0050.450.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0350.0071.020.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0371.4354.860.000.00
Ohio St.B100.000.0387.5068.610.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.520.0350.0041.990.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0325.0020.78-0.00-0.02
Texas St.SB0.520.0350.0043.390.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0337.5035.09-0.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0371.4368.980.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.390.0328.5741.52-0.17-0.00
BYUWCC0.350.0362.5066.900.090.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0022.58-0.00-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.03100.0091.920.000.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.350.0342.8658.58-0.050.00
LehighPat0.000.0342.8666.67-0.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0316.6729.81-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0034.47-0.00-0.01
MontanaBSky0.390.0325.0048.10-0.20-0.00
NebraskaB100.390.0357.1444.890.06-0.00
NJITASun0.000.0350.0049.780.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0020.75-0.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0357.1471.520.000.01
PortlandWCC0.000.0350.0054.070.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.030.0022.01-0.00-0.02
UMKCWAC0.390.0362.5052.330.100.00
UtahP120.350.0375.0059.790.170.01
ButlerBE0.000.03100.0074.440.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.0320.0022.75-0.00-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.450.0357.1450.080.060.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0350.0056.740.000.00
Little RockSB0.000.0366.6761.330.000.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.0342.8633.23-0.00-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.390.0375.0056.590.200.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.450.0342.8638.63-0.06-0.01
TCUB120.000.03100.0061.680.000.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0362.5067.390.000.01
VCUA100.000.0375.0073.060.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0357.1451.790.000.00
ArizonaP120.390.0375.0068.370.200.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0362.5040.460.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0385.7166.190.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.030.0023.69-0.00-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0385.7157.450.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0328.5731.44-0.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.390.030.0021.22-0.39-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0387.5065.250.000.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.0337.5047.37-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0375.0048.030.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0357.1442.530.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.0387.5081.960.000.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.390.0316.6739.20-0.26-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.390.0333.3332.35-0.13-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0325.0055.33-0.000.00
TempleAmer0.390.0375.0064.920.200.01
UCLAP120.000.03100.0086.690.000.02
West VirginiaB120.390.0385.7183.660.280.02
WinthropBSth0.390.0350.0071.070.000.01