live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Hofstra

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:54.0
Current RPI:54
Expected SOS:108
Current SOS:108
Current Record:23-9
Expected Record:23-9
Current Conf Record:16-5
Expected Conf Record:16-5
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-0
Current OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:90
Expected OOC SOS:150



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-954.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Hofstra.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Canisius (220.0)MAACH96-85W100%0.0
11-20Florida St. (82.0)ACCN77-82W100%0.0
11-22South Carolina (65.0)SECN94-84L0%0.0
11-23Indiana St. (172.0)MVCN66-67L0%0.0
11-28St. Bonaventure (30.0)A10A83-89W100%0.0
12-2La Salle (232.0)A10A80-84W100%0.0
12-6Appalachian St. (259.0)SBN86-80W100%0.0
12-9Siena (104.0)MAACA81-68L0%0.0
12-20Stony Brook (59.0)AEA71-68L0%0.0
12-22Florida Atlantic (300.0)CUSAH68-54W100%0.0
12-28Sacred Heart (258.0)NECH80-73W100%0.0
12-31Delaware (274.0)CAAH90-80W100%0.0
1-2Towson (150.0)CAAA58-90W100%0.0
1-7College of Charleston (135.0)CAAA72-61L0%0.0
1-9Elon (160.0)CAAA76-80W100%0.0
1-14Drexel (247.0)CAAH69-61W100%0.0
1-16James Madison (103.0)CAAH82-86L0%0.0
1-21Northeastern (109.0)CAAA92-96W100%0.0
1-24William & Mary (67.0)CAAH91-63W100%0.0
1-28Elon (160.0)CAAH66-64W100%0.0
1-30Drexel (247.0)CAAA64-70W100%0.0
2-4UNC Wilmington (45.0)CAAH67-70L0%0.0
2-7James Madison (103.0)CAAA98-95L0%0.0
2-11William & Mary (67.0)CAAA80-86W100%0.0
2-13Delaware (274.0)CAAA66-77W100%0.0
2-18Towson (150.0)CAAH84-82W100%0.0
2-21Northeastern (109.0)CAAH65-60W100%0.0
2-25UNC Wilmington (45.0)CAAA69-70W100%0.0
2-27College of Charleston (135.0)CAAH72-63W100%0.0
3-5Drexel (247.0)CAAN80-67W100%0.0
3-6William & Mary (67.0)CAAN70-67W100%0.0
3-7UNC Wilmington (45.0)CAAN73-80L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Hofstra's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Hofstra's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Hofstra.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
HofstraCAA26.6026.6073.3873.3812.4412.44
DrexelCAA5.725.7222.2222.22-3.18-3.18
UNC WilmingtonCAA5.725.7277.7877.783.183.18
William & MaryCAA5.675.6769.2369.232.182.18
NortheasternCAA4.304.3056.6756.670.570.57
College of CharlestonCAA4.244.2453.5753.570.300.30
TowsonCAA4.214.2164.2964.291.201.20
James MadisonCAA4.194.1962.0762.071.011.01
ElonCAA4.194.1950.0050.000.000.00
DelawareCAA4.164.1625.0025.00-2.08-2.08
La SalleA101.721.7227.5927.59-0.77-0.77
South CarolinaSEC1.641.6473.3373.330.770.77
CanisiusMAAC1.641.6443.7543.75-0.20-0.20
SienaMAAC1.641.6462.5062.500.410.41
St. BonaventureA101.641.6475.8675.860.850.85
Florida AtlanticCUSA1.641.6423.3323.33-0.87-0.87
Sacred HeartNEC1.611.6141.3841.38-0.28-0.28
Stony BrookAE1.611.6179.3179.310.940.94
Florida St.ACC1.591.5961.2961.290.360.36
Appalachian St.SB1.561.5630.0030.00-0.62-0.62
Indiana St.MVC1.561.5643.3343.33-0.21-0.21
IonaMAAC0.270.2768.7568.750.100.10
East CarolinaAmer0.210.2137.5037.50-0.05-0.05
DaytonA100.180.1878.1278.120.100.10
Saint Joseph'sA100.180.1879.4179.410.110.11
North Carolina St.ACC0.180.1848.4848.48-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.180.1836.6736.67-0.05-0.05
VermontAE0.180.1860.6160.610.040.04
Miami FLACC0.180.1878.1278.120.100.10
MonmouthMAAC0.170.1779.4179.410.100.10
High PointBSth0.160.1664.2964.290.050.05
DavidsonA100.160.1661.2961.290.040.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.160.1654.8454.840.020.02
George MasonA100.150.1534.3834.38-0.05-0.05
BradleyMVC0.150.1512.9012.90-0.11-0.11
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.150.1542.4242.42-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.150.1536.6736.67-0.04-0.04
RadfordBSth0.150.1548.2848.28-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.150.1523.3323.33-0.08-0.08
NiagaraMAAC0.140.1421.8821.88-0.08-0.08
Old DominionCUSA0.130.1362.8662.860.030.03
CampbellBSth0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
UMBCAE0.130.1321.8821.88-0.07-0.07
UNC AshevilleBSth0.130.1364.5264.520.040.04
Loyola MDPat0.130.1330.0030.00-0.05-0.05
SyracuseACC0.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.130.1351.5251.520.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.120.1230.0030.00-0.05-0.05
RiderMAAC0.120.1239.3939.39-0.03-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
LibertyBSth0.110.1134.4834.48-0.03-0.03
VirginiaACC0.110.1178.7978.790.060.06
DuquesneA100.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.100.1028.1228.12-0.05-0.05
MassachusettsA100.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.100.1037.0437.04-0.03-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.100.1042.4242.42-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
Penn St.B100.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.100.1021.8821.88-0.06-0.06
DukeACC0.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
LipscombASun0.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
BinghamtonAE0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
ColumbiaIvy0.080.0865.5265.520.020.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
FordhamA100.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
TempleAmer0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
UMass LowellAE0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
VillanovaBE0.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
LSUSEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
MississippiSEC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.080.0824.2424.24-0.04-0.04
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
AlbanyAE0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
BryantNEC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0872.7372.730.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.080.0844.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
UTSACUSA0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
ClemsonACC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
Boston UniversityPat0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0557.6957.690.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
LafayettePat0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
MaineAE0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
NavyPat0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
New HampshireAE0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
The CitadelSC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Notre DameACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
OhioMAC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
MissouriSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Texas St.SB0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
TulsaAmer0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
UABCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
UTEPCUSA0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
LehighPat0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
DePaulBE0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
DetroitHorz0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
CornellIvy0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
AmericanPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
NJITASun0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0377.7877.780.010.01
YaleIvy0.030.0377.7877.780.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
AuburnSEC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
ButlerBE0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
IUPUISum0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
MemphisAmer0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
MercerSC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0382.1482.140.020.02
TexasB120.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0335.2935.29-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
WyomingMWC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
IowaB100.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
PittsburghACC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
WisconsinB100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01