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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Hofstra

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:174.0
Current RPI:174
Expected SOS:279
Current SOS:279
Current Record:20-13
Expected Record:20-13
Current Conf Record:11-9
Expected Conf Record:11-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:16-2
Current OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:160
Expected OOC SOS:334



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-13174.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Hofstra.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Jacksonville (338.0)ASunH94-61W100%0.0
11-17North Carolina St. (39.0)ACCA76-64L0%0.0
11-21Stony Brook (107.0)AEH66-65W100%0.0
11-23Wagner (294.0)NECH93-71W100%0.0
11-25South Florida (273.0)AmerA71-70L0%0.0
11-28Jackson St. (322.0)SWACA56-86W100%0.0
12-2Norfolk St. (167.0)MEACH88-74W100%0.0
12-7Appalachian St. (250.0)SBA51-68W100%0.0
12-10Coppin St. (311.0)MEACA64-105W100%0.0
12-20Columbia (196.0)IvyA82-77L0%0.0
12-23La Salle (101.0)A10H74-83L0%0.0
12-28LIU Brooklyn (256.0)NECN62-88W100%0.0
12-31Central Connecticut (342.0)NECA56-84W100%0.0
1-3UNC Wilmington (145.0)CAAA56-68W100%0.0
1-5Delaware (253.0)CAAH71-58W100%0.0
1-8College of Charleston (298.0)CAAA66-71W100%0.0
1-10Elon (259.0)CAAA61-79W100%0.0
1-14Northeastern (86.0)CAAA91-83L0%0.0
1-17UNC Wilmington (145.0)CAAH74-79L0%0.0
1-21Drexel (243.0)CAAH86-58W100%0.0
1-24James Madison (148.0)CAAH63-69L0%0.0
1-28William & Mary (93.0)CAAA100-79L0%0.0
1-31Towson (281.0)CAAH72-86L0%0.0
2-4Delaware (253.0)CAAA69-79W100%0.0
2-7Elon (259.0)CAAH80-69W100%0.0
2-12Northeastern (86.0)CAAH68-79L0%0.0
2-15Drexel (243.0)CAAA57-81W100%0.0
2-18Towson (281.0)CAAA82-87W100%0.0
2-22William & Mary (93.0)CAAH78-80L0%0.0
2-25College of Charleston (298.0)CAAH73-40W100%0.0
2-28James Madison (148.0)CAAA82-73L0%0.0
3-7James Madison (148.0)CAAN57-74W100%0.0
3-8William & Mary (93.0)CAAN92-91L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Hofstra's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Hofstra's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Hofstra.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
HofstraCAA26.4526.4561.5461.546.106.10
William & MaryCAA5.465.4655.5655.560.610.61
James MadisonCAA5.405.4058.6258.620.930.93
NortheasternCAA4.094.0965.6265.621.281.28
ElonCAA4.034.0344.8344.83-0.42-0.42
TowsonCAA4.034.0334.4834.48-1.25-1.25
College of CharlestonCAA4.024.0229.0329.03-1.68-1.68
UNC WilmingtonCAA4.004.0057.1457.140.570.57
DrexelCAA3.973.9740.7440.74-0.74-0.74
DelawareCAA3.953.9535.7135.71-1.13-1.13
Central ConnecticutNEC1.671.6716.6716.67-1.11-1.11
WagnerNEC1.641.6432.1432.14-0.59-0.59
LIU BrooklynNEC1.641.6441.3841.38-0.28-0.28
Norfolk St.MEAC1.641.6460.0060.000.330.33
La SalleA101.621.6250.0050.000.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC1.611.6124.1424.14-0.83-0.83
JacksonvilleASun1.611.6125.0025.00-0.81-0.81
Stony BrookAE1.601.6067.7467.740.570.57
North Carolina St.ACC1.591.5959.3859.380.300.30
Jackson St.SWAC1.591.5935.4835.48-0.46-0.46
ColumbiaIvy1.591.5942.3142.31-0.24-0.24
South FloridaAmer1.591.5923.3323.33-0.85-0.85
Appalachian St.SB1.541.5442.8642.86-0.22-0.22
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.280.2825.0025.00-0.14-0.14
St. Francis NYNEC0.250.2566.6766.670.080.08
RichmondA100.240.2459.3859.380.040.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.230.2357.5857.580.030.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.220.2245.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.200.2022.5822.58-0.11-0.11
ConnecticutAmer0.200.2058.8258.820.030.03
TempleAmer0.200.2069.7069.700.080.08
East CarolinaAmer0.190.1938.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
HowardMEAC0.180.1844.8344.83-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.170.1730.0030.00-0.07-0.07
CampbellBSth0.170.1724.1424.14-0.09-0.09
VirginiaACC0.160.1690.6290.620.130.13
BryantNEC0.150.1551.6151.610.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
High PointBSth0.150.1567.8667.860.050.05
DavidsonA100.140.1476.6776.670.080.08
Old DominionCUSA0.130.1377.4277.420.070.07
Delaware St.MEAC0.130.1348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.120.1248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
ColgatePat0.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.120.1268.5768.570.050.05
Miami FLACC0.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
CharlotteCUSA0.120.1243.7543.75-0.02-0.02
UMBCAE0.120.1213.3313.33-0.09-0.09
South Carolina St.MEAC0.120.1229.0329.03-0.05-0.05
MassachusettsA100.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
CornellIvy0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
PennIvy0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
PrincetonIvy0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
FloridaSEC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
North FloridaASun0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
LibertyBSth0.100.1014.2914.29-0.07-0.07
HarvardIvy0.100.1074.0774.070.050.05
AlabamaSEC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
MaineAE0.100.1010.0010.00-0.08-0.08
WoffordSC0.100.1081.2581.250.060.06
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.100.1075.8675.860.050.05
New HampshireAE0.100.1058.6258.620.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
VermontAE0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.100.1040.7440.74-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.090.0987.8887.880.070.07
NavyPat0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
BrownIvy0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0865.5265.520.020.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0867.8667.860.030.03
OhioMAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.086.906.90-0.07-0.07
RiceCUSA0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0823.0823.08-0.04-0.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0725.9325.93-0.04-0.04
AmericanPat0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
VillanovaBE0.070.0794.1294.120.060.06
TulaneAmer0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
HartfordAE0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0764.7164.710.020.02
AlbanyAE0.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
Ball St.MAC0.070.0720.6920.69-0.04-0.04
BinghamtonAE0.070.0716.6716.67-0.05-0.05
LongwoodBSth0.070.0728.1228.12-0.03-0.03
Ohio St.B100.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.070.0762.0762.070.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.070.0783.3383.330.050.05
Boston UniversityPat0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
George MasonA100.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
West VirginiaB120.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
DartmouthIvy0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
YaleIvy0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
LehighPat0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
ColoradoP120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
IonaMAAC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
LipscombASun0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Texas St.SB0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
USCP120.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
RiderMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
ArmyPat0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
StanfordP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
VMISC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
NJITind0.050.0556.0056.000.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
HoustonAmer0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
TulsaAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
UABCUSA0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0547.0647.06-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0562.9662.960.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.050.000.00-0.05-0.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0518.7518.75-0.03-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
ClemsonACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
DaytonA100.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
FordhamA100.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
LSUSEC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
PittsburghACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.040.0459.3859.380.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.040.0468.9768.970.020.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.040.0440.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.040.0458.0658.060.010.01
BucknellPat0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
KentuckySEC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
IPFWSum0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
DenverSum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
MichiganB100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
BaylorB120.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
MemphisAmer0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Seton HallBE0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
DrakeMVC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
WashingtonP120.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.020.0259.2659.260.000.00
DuquesneA100.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
PurdueB100.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Saint LouisA100.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
VCUA100.020.0274.2974.290.010.01