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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Hofstra

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:121.0
Current RPI:121
Expected SOS:152
Current SOS:152
Current Record:18-12
Expected Record:18-12
Current Conf Record:12-7
Expected Conf Record:12-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-5
Current OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:125
Expected OOC SOS:108



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-12121.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Hofstra.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Army (280.0)PatH77-74W100%0.0
11-13Kennesaw St. (301.0)ASunH75-57W100%0.0
11-16Dayton (146.0)A10N72-69W100%0.0
11-17Clemson (11.0)ACCN59-78L0%0.0
11-19Auburn (15.0)SECN78-89L0%0.0
11-25Siena (299.0)MAACA85-76L0%0.0
12-6Monmouth (199.0)MAACA84-85W100%0.0
12-9Rider (69.0)MAACA82-88W100%0.0
12-12Stony Brook (208.0)AEA81-84W100%0.0
12-20Manhattan (228.0)MAACH61-63L0%0.0
12-22Villanova (2.0)BEN71-95L0%0.0
12-30William & Mary (94.0)CAAA90-87L0%0.0
1-2Northeastern (55.0)CAAA70-71W100%0.0
1-5James Madison (272.0)CAAH87-81W100%0.0
1-7Elon (205.0)CAAH76-89L0%0.0
1-11Towson (153.0)CAAA73-76W100%0.0
1-13Drexel (242.0)CAAA86-91W100%0.0
1-18Delaware (233.0)CAAH90-63W100%0.0
1-20College of Charleston (57.0)CAAA76-70L0%0.0
1-25Northeastern (55.0)CAAH67-81L0%0.0
1-27Delaware (233.0)CAAA59-64W100%0.0
2-1UNC Wilmington (245.0)CAAH96-76W100%0.0
2-3College of Charleston (57.0)CAAH85-86L0%0.0
2-8Elon (205.0)CAAA48-67W100%0.0
2-10UNC Wilmington (245.0)CAAA90-70L0%0.0
2-15William & Mary (94.0)CAAH90-84W100%0.0
2-17Drexel (242.0)CAAH88-76W100%0.0
2-22James Madison (272.0)CAAA61-77W100%0.0
2-24Towson (153.0)CAAH91-86W100%0.0
3-4UNC Wilmington (245.0)CAAN88-93L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Hofstra's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Hofstra's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Hofstra.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
HofstraCAA26.4126.4160.5360.535.565.56
UNC WilmingtonCAA5.925.9225.9325.93-2.85-2.85
NortheasternCAA4.454.4570.0070.001.781.78
College of CharlestonCAA4.454.4575.8675.862.302.30
DrexelCAA4.404.4040.0040.00-0.88-0.88
DelawareCAA4.374.3741.3841.38-0.75-0.75
William & MaryCAA4.364.3659.2659.260.810.81
TowsonCAA4.344.3457.1457.140.620.62
James MadisonCAA4.314.3131.0331.03-1.64-1.64
ElonCAA4.314.3139.2939.29-0.92-0.92
ManhattanMAAC1.881.8843.3343.33-0.25-0.25
SienaMAAC1.851.8522.5822.58-1.02-1.02
RiderMAAC1.851.8573.3373.330.860.86
MonmouthMAAC1.831.8336.6736.67-0.49-0.49
AuburnSEC1.691.6977.4277.420.930.93
DaytonA101.691.6946.6746.67-0.11-0.11
ArmyPat1.671.6742.8642.86-0.24-0.24
ClemsonACC1.671.6770.9770.970.700.70
Kennesaw St.ASun1.671.6729.6329.63-0.68-0.68
Stony BrookAE1.671.6740.0040.00-0.33-0.33
VillanovaBE1.671.6787.8887.881.261.26
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.300.3043.7543.75-0.04-0.04
QuinnipiacMAAC0.260.2636.3636.36-0.07-0.07
MaristMAAC0.240.2419.3519.35-0.15-0.15
CanisiusMAAC0.240.2465.6265.620.080.08
IonaMAAC0.240.2460.6160.610.050.05
FairfieldMAAC0.210.2151.5251.520.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.190.1926.6726.67-0.09-0.09
Old DominionCUSA0.190.1978.1278.120.110.11
UNC GreensboroSC0.190.1977.4277.420.110.11
FurmanSC0.190.1967.7467.740.070.07
BucknellPat0.190.1973.5373.530.090.09
NiagaraMAAC0.190.1959.3859.380.040.04
Boston UniversityPat0.170.1746.6746.67-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.160.1648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.160.1640.6240.62-0.03-0.03
VermontAE0.160.1678.7978.790.090.09
UMBCAE0.140.1467.7467.740.050.05
Ohio St.B100.140.1475.0075.000.070.07
RichmondA100.130.1337.5037.50-0.03-0.03
LafayettePat0.130.1330.0030.00-0.05-0.05
PennIvy0.130.1374.1974.190.060.06
AlbanyAE0.130.1367.7467.740.050.05
CornellIvy0.130.1340.7440.74-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.130.1361.7661.760.030.03
NJITASun0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
High PointBSth0.110.1140.7440.74-0.02-0.02
NavyPat0.110.1161.2961.290.030.03
YaleIvy0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
LehighPat0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
DavidsonA100.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
LSUSEC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
FIUCUSA0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
RadfordBSth0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
CharlotteCUSA0.110.1117.8617.86-0.07-0.07
Rhode IslandA100.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
FloridaSEC0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
ConnecticutAmer0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
Seton HallBE0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.090.0964.5264.520.020.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
CampbellBSth0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
HowardMEAC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.0884.3884.380.060.06
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoMVC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
MercerSC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
DukeACC0.080.0878.7978.790.050.05
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
HartfordAE0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
VCUA100.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.080.0826.9226.92-0.04-0.04
Notre DameACC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
HarvardIvy0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
VirginiaACC0.080.0893.9493.940.070.07
AlabamaSEC0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
XavierBE0.080.0884.8584.850.050.05
MarquetteBE0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
LipscombASun0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
North FloridaASun0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.060.0628.5728.57-0.03-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.060.0610.7110.71-0.05-0.05
AmericanPat0.060.0620.0020.00-0.03-0.03
ColgatePat0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
UCFAmer0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
SamfordSC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Cal PolyBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.056.676.67-0.05-0.05
DuquesneA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
FordhamA100.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
MaineAE0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
MassachusettsA100.050.0539.3939.39-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Saint LouisA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
The CitadelSC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
WagnerNEC0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
Weber St.BSky0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Wichita St.Amer0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
KentuckySEC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Kent St.MAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0571.4371.430.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
StanfordP120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
CreightonBE0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
DePaulBE0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
SeattleWAC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
WashingtonP120.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
MarylandB100.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Michigan St.B100.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
RutgersB100.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
TulsaAmer0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.030.039.689.68-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
MemphisAmer0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0382.7682.760.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
SyracuseACC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0344.1244.12-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
WinthropBSth0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.020.0260.7160.710.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01