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Through games of Dec 18, 2014.


Hofstra

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:65.7
Current RPI:159
Expected SOS:235
Current SOS:338
Current Record:7-2
Expected Record:24-7
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:14-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:10-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-1
Current OOC Record:7-2
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:86
Expected OOC SOS:315



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
29-228.20.44%
28-333.62.39%
27-439.88.15%
26-547.915.98%
25-656.921.61%
24-767.921.39%
23-879.815.69%
22-993.38.59%
21-10107.23.92%
20-11124.21.31%
19-12140.30.44%
18-13152.60.07%
17-14179.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Hofstra.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Jacksonville (336.7)ASunH94-61W100%0.0
11-17North Carolina St. (40.3)ACCA76-64L0%0.0
11-21Stony Brook (147.2)AEH66-65W100%0.0
11-23Wagner (274.1)NECH93-71W100%0.0
11-25South Florida (169.1)AmerA71-70L0%0.0
11-28Jackson St. (284.8)SWACA56-86W100%0.0
12-2Norfolk St. (178.5)MEACH88-74W100%0.0
12-7Appalachian St. (261.0)SBA51-68W100%0.0
12-10Coppin St. (335.0)MEACA64-105W100%0.0
12-20Columbia (100.8)IvyA0-048%-0.5
12-23La Salle (124.4)A10H0-083%11.2
12-28LIU Brooklyn (235.2)NECN0-087%13.1
12-31Central Connecticut (309.7)NECA0-089%14.1
1-3UNC Wilmington (119.0)CAAA0-062%3.5
1-5Delaware (332.9)CAAH0-099%29.4
1-8College of Charleston (183.9)CAAA0-070%6.3
1-10Elon (192.4)CAAA0-069%5.9
1-14Northeastern (133.0)CAAA0-061%3.2
1-17UNC Wilmington (119.0)CAAH0-085%12.3
1-21Drexel (227.4)CAAH0-092%16.4
1-24James Madison (122.0)CAAH0-086%12.8
1-28William & Mary (104.3)CAAA0-056%1.9
1-31Towson (195.0)CAAH0-092%16.7
2-4Delaware (332.9)CAAA0-096%20.7
2-7Elon (192.4)CAAH0-089%14.6
2-12Northeastern (133.0)CAAH0-085%12.0
2-14Drexel (227.4)CAAA0-074%7.7
2-18Towson (195.0)CAAA0-075%8.0
2-22William & Mary (104.3)CAAH0-082%10.6
2-25College of Charleston (183.9)CAAH0-090%15.1
2-28James Madison (122.0)CAAA0-063%4.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Hofstra's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Hofstra's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Hofstra.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
HofstraCAA27.7326.3584.6282.5119.2017.13
TowsonCAA0.314.1966.6753.940.100.33
James MadisonCAA0.004.1470.0063.240.001.10
DrexelCAA0.004.1325.0038.69-0.00-0.93
College of CharlestonCAA0.004.1150.0046.630.00-0.28
NortheasternCAA0.004.1166.6759.970.000.82
DelawareCAA0.004.110.007.77-0.00-3.47
ElonCAA0.004.1137.5049.88-0.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.004.1050.0055.800.000.48
William & MaryCAA0.004.1057.1458.810.000.72
Central ConnecticutNEC0.001.7822.2231.49-0.00-0.66
WagnerNEC5.561.7516.6734.79-3.70-0.53
LIU BrooklynNEC0.311.7533.3345.83-0.10-0.15
La SalleA100.001.7250.0051.060.000.04
Norfolk St.MEAC5.861.7255.5658.360.650.29
Coppin St.MEAC5.831.720.0015.34-5.83-1.19
JacksonvilleASun6.721.7211.1119.27-5.22-1.06
Stony BrookAE5.561.7037.5056.69-1.390.23
ColumbiaIvy0.711.7062.5065.270.180.52
Jackson St.SWAC6.391.6920.0046.11-3.84-0.13
North Carolina St.ACC6.391.6980.0062.923.840.44
South FloridaAmer6.341.6937.5042.88-1.58-0.24
Appalachian St.SB5.831.6442.8635.41-0.83-0.48
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.3028.5741.17-0.00-0.05
St. Francis NYNEC0.280.2522.2240.44-0.15-0.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.280.2218.1835.99-0.18-0.06
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.2230.0039.44-0.00-0.05
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.2250.0058.360.000.04
TempleAmer0.000.2263.6455.600.000.02
RichmondA100.250.2255.5657.090.030.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.280.1937.5037.96-0.07-0.05
ConnecticutAmer0.310.1950.0057.510.000.03
East CarolinaAmer0.000.1937.5038.60-0.00-0.04
HowardMEAC0.000.1730.0043.91-0.00-0.02
BryantNEC0.000.1728.5747.24-0.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.1750.0062.270.000.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.280.1720.0034.08-0.17-0.05
CampbellBSth0.000.1625.0044.59-0.00-0.02
VirginiaACC0.280.16100.0085.310.280.11
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1440.0046.73-0.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1455.5640.500.00-0.03
DavidsonA100.000.1487.5077.020.000.07
Miami FLACC0.000.1490.0075.520.000.07
CharlotteCUSA0.350.1460.0064.610.070.04
UMBCAE0.000.1410.0020.91-0.00-0.08
CornellIvy0.000.1255.5648.240.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.1288.8981.310.000.07
PrincetonIvy0.310.1227.2737.85-0.14-0.03
PennIvy0.400.1137.5033.00-0.10-0.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.1136.3633.67-0.00-0.04
LibertyBSth0.000.1125.0034.77-0.00-0.03
North FloridaASun0.000.1144.4456.91-0.000.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.1122.2237.75-0.00-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.660.1140.0050.32-0.130.00
MaineAE0.400.1111.1121.08-0.31-0.06
HarvardIvy0.000.1185.7172.940.000.05
High PointBSth0.000.1162.5056.410.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.1170.0071.630.000.05
New HampshireAE0.000.1157.1464.620.000.03
CincinnatiAmer0.310.1177.7869.190.170.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.1120.0029.81-0.00-0.04
MonmouthMAAC0.000.1144.4456.51-0.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.310.1166.6754.660.100.01
ColgatePat0.000.1120.0043.08-0.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.1142.8638.75-0.00-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.250.1175.0065.410.130.03
NavyPat0.000.1120.0021.58-0.00-0.06
Florida St.ACC0.000.1050.0037.510.00-0.03
MassachusettsA100.000.1060.0055.630.000.01
FloridaSEC0.280.0960.0064.930.060.03
BrownIvy0.000.0940.0033.79-0.00-0.03
WoffordSC0.250.0977.7876.240.140.05
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.090.0012.36-0.00-0.06
OhioMAC0.350.0942.8638.11-0.05-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0850.0052.710.000.00
VermontAE0.400.0844.4457.85-0.040.01
AmericanPat0.000.0860.0065.400.000.03
LouisvilleACC0.000.08100.0085.330.000.06
Southern MissCUSA0.250.0842.8627.08-0.04-0.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0844.4470.08-0.000.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.310.0866.6762.620.100.02
DukeACC0.000.08100.0087.140.000.06
HartfordAE0.000.0850.0051.050.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.250.0842.8652.71-0.040.00
VillanovaBE0.000.08100.0082.080.000.05
Gardner WebbBSth0.280.0837.5050.40-0.070.00
Boston UniversityPat0.280.0833.3342.19-0.09-0.01
FurmanSC0.350.0825.0029.59-0.17-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.280.0811.1144.62-0.22-0.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0887.5054.790.000.01
DetroitHorz0.310.0844.4448.88-0.03-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0844.4439.74-0.00-0.02
George MasonA100.000.0825.0025.93-0.00-0.04
West VirginiaB120.000.0890.0066.940.000.03
DartmouthIvy0.000.0644.4447.53-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0616.6726.28-0.00-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0637.5031.95-0.00-0.02
YaleIvy0.000.0672.7367.180.000.02
LehighPat0.000.0637.5047.71-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.000.0633.3327.70-0.00-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.000.0675.0069.120.000.02
ColoradoP120.000.0666.6758.240.000.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0675.0071.730.000.03
IonaMAAC0.000.0666.6772.340.000.03
LipscombASun0.000.0625.0042.64-0.00-0.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0677.7864.730.000.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0625.0033.17-0.00-0.02
Penn St.B100.000.0690.9153.850.000.00
StetsonASun0.000.0610.0027.42-0.00-0.03
USCP120.000.0660.0036.120.00-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.000.0660.0064.620.000.02
VMISC0.000.0633.3339.22-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0641.6744.33-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0023.15-0.00-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0618.1828.02-0.00-0.02
AlbanyAE0.000.0633.3348.89-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0642.8638.26-0.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0633.3345.50-0.00-0.01
ArmyPat0.000.0677.7868.780.000.02
BinghamtonAE0.000.060.0011.87-0.00-0.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0610.0030.45-0.00-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.310.0662.5059.510.080.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0662.5071.290.000.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0633.3345.28-0.00-0.01
MaristMAAC0.000.0610.0018.61-0.00-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.000.0630.0028.50-0.00-0.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0644.4431.58-0.00-0.02
NorthwesternB100.000.0660.0040.620.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0036.67-0.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.0675.0057.570.000.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0650.0050.330.000.00
TroySB0.000.0633.3339.46-0.00-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0655.5654.360.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0655.5654.950.000.01
MarylandB100.400.0590.9167.660.320.02
Notre DameACC0.310.0590.9171.890.250.02
RiderMAAC0.000.0550.0052.800.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.350.0577.7851.350.190.00
NJITind0.000.0536.3640.98-0.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.280.0536.3647.13-0.08-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.280.0575.0060.400.140.01
Virginia TechACC0.350.0555.5638.130.04-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0566.6759.460.000.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0571.4348.860.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.000.0570.0071.330.000.02
TulsaAmer0.000.0560.0056.800.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.0555.5634.940.00-0.02
UABCUSA0.560.0530.0037.28-0.22-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0533.3362.92-0.000.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.050.0028.26-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0520.0038.24-0.00-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0528.5736.95-0.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0566.6745.670.00-0.00
DaytonA100.000.0577.7870.120.000.02
FordhamA100.000.0528.5728.26-0.00-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.050.008.88-0.00-0.04
LongwoodBSth0.000.0520.0026.57-0.00-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.250.0572.7367.750.110.02
LSUSEC0.000.0580.0064.110.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0522.2237.50-0.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.0510.0018.01-0.00-0.03
Ohio St.B100.000.0590.0084.680.000.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.050.0039.41-0.00-0.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0550.0055.810.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0562.5073.190.000.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0571.4357.100.000.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0550.0040.880.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.050.0033.84-0.00-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0577.7865.390.000.02
The CitadelSC0.000.0516.6730.84-0.00-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0580.0069.620.000.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0562.5054.980.000.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.050.0031.74-0.00-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.250.0550.0038.000.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.000.0340.0036.29-0.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0094.790.000.03
AkronMAC0.000.0360.0056.560.000.00
DenverSum0.310.0350.0054.230.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0342.8655.64-0.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0371.4363.410.000.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0377.7871.110.000.01
IllinoisB100.310.0372.7365.930.140.01
IPFWSum0.280.0357.1456.900.040.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0355.5638.600.00-0.01
LafayettePat0.400.0375.0069.820.200.01
MichiganB100.000.0355.5642.550.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0350.0039.340.00-0.01
OregonP120.310.0366.6758.060.100.00
SamfordSC0.280.0333.3331.58-0.09-0.01
BaylorB120.000.0390.0073.870.000.01
CanisiusMAAC0.310.0355.5661.390.030.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0344.4451.04-0.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0340.0050.78-0.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.310.0372.7353.260.140.00
St. John'sBE0.000.0387.5065.040.000.01
WashingtonP120.000.03100.0071.820.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.310.0355.5649.500.03-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0375.0067.580.000.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0355.5659.990.000.01
Seton HallBE0.310.0390.0067.260.250.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0311.1144.04-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.250.0375.0068.680.130.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0366.6742.100.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.250.0342.8649.98-0.04-0.00
DrakeMVC0.250.0320.0019.99-0.15-0.02
DuquesneA100.000.0328.5731.23-0.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0366.6766.340.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.250.0371.4359.920.110.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0366.6752.340.000.00
PurdueB100.250.0372.7363.730.110.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0344.4449.65-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0360.0033.870.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0366.6757.800.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.250.0350.0046.150.00-0.00
VCUA100.000.0370.0071.420.000.01