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Through games of Feb 6, 2016.


Hofstra

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:71.2
Current RPI:77
Expected SOS:105
Current SOS:121
Current Record:15-7
Expected Record:19-10
Current Conf Record:8-3
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-0
Current OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:79
Expected OOC SOS:118



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-739.10.85%
21-849.17.34%
20-959.223.55%
19-1069.433.48%
18-1181.423.82%
17-1295.49.25%
16-13110.11.62%
15-14126.80.08%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Hofstra.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Canisius (223.2)MAACH96-85W100%0.0
11-20Florida St. (46.9)ACCN77-82W100%0.0
11-22South Carolina (46.6)SECN94-84L0%0.0
11-23Indiana St. (147.2)MVCN66-67L0%0.0
11-28St. Bonaventure (49.8)A10A83-89W100%0.0
12-2La Salle (258.0)A10A80-84W100%0.0
12-6Appalachian St. (260.0)SBN86-80W100%0.0
12-9Siena (87.4)MAACA81-68L0%0.0
12-20Stony Brook (45.7)AEA71-68L0%0.0
12-22Florida Atlantic (280.1)CUSAH68-54W100%0.0
12-28Sacred Heart (275.5)NECH80-73W100%0.0
12-31Delaware (275.4)CAAH90-80W100%0.0
1-2Towson (153.8)CAAA58-90W100%0.0
1-7College of Charleston (95.0)CAAA72-61L0%0.0
1-9Elon (137.9)CAAA76-80W100%0.0
1-14Drexel (265.5)CAAH69-61W100%0.0
1-16James Madison (86.9)CAAH82-86L0%0.0
1-21Northeastern (148.7)CAAA92-96W100%0.0
1-24William & Mary (40.4)CAAH91-63W100%0.0
1-28Elon (137.9)CAAH66-64W100%0.0
1-30Drexel (265.5)CAAA64-70W100%0.0
2-4UNC Wilmington (60.8)CAAH67-70L0%0.0
2-7James Madison (86.9)CAAA0-032%-5.2
2-11William & Mary (40.4)CAAA0-032%-5.0
2-13Delaware (275.4)CAAA0-080%9.1
2-18Towson (153.8)CAAH0-078%8.4
2-21Northeastern (148.7)CAAH0-073%6.6
2-25UNC Wilmington (60.8)CAAA0-032%-5.0
2-27College of Charleston (95.0)CAAH0-067%4.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Hofstra's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Hofstra's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Hofstra.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
HofstraCAA26.3226.4168.8766.879.938.91
NortheasternCAA3.044.4847.8349.00-0.13-0.09
TowsonCAA3.094.4868.1863.361.121.20
DrexelCAA5.224.4715.0019.54-3.65-2.72
James MadisonCAA2.984.4268.1867.381.081.54
DelawareCAA2.884.4222.7324.29-1.57-2.27
ElonCAA5.104.4257.1454.160.730.37
College of CharlestonCAA2.994.4161.9060.490.710.93
UNC WilmingtonCAA2.984.4175.0072.551.491.99
William & MaryCAA2.924.4175.0072.711.462.00
La SalleA102.431.8721.0521.23-1.40-1.08
St. BonaventureA102.371.8173.6871.571.120.78
Florida AtlanticCUSA2.371.8123.8128.15-1.24-0.79
CanisiusMAAC2.381.8143.4845.34-0.31-0.17
SienaMAAC2.381.8165.2266.180.720.59
South CarolinaSEC2.381.7985.7178.431.701.02
Sacred HeartNEC2.321.7836.3638.39-0.63-0.41
Stony BrookAE2.321.7880.0082.031.391.14
Florida St.ACC2.321.7572.7367.121.060.60
Appalachian St.SB2.271.7227.2730.18-1.03-0.68
Indiana St.MVC2.271.7250.0050.230.000.01
IonaMAAC0.200.2359.0959.660.040.04
East CarolinaAmer0.210.2145.4542.00-0.02-0.03
Miami FLACC0.210.2180.9575.490.130.11
DaytonA100.220.1886.3682.350.160.12
Saint Joseph'sA100.220.1882.6178.860.140.11
VermontAE0.210.1854.1757.520.020.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.200.1850.0049.100.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.150.1833.3335.50-0.05-0.05
BradleyMVC0.150.1812.5012.85-0.11-0.13
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.150.1850.0051.910.000.01
George MasonA100.160.1834.7834.21-0.05-0.06
FIUCUSA0.200.1840.9145.30-0.04-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.200.1840.0045.51-0.04-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.290.1779.1780.780.170.11
MaristMAAC0.140.1719.0521.34-0.09-0.10
RadfordBSth0.150.1550.0051.290.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.210.1534.7837.18-0.06-0.04
SyracuseACC0.160.1566.6762.570.050.04
MarshallCUSA0.150.1450.0051.170.000.00
RiderMAAC0.150.1441.6743.53-0.03-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.140.1452.1753.070.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.200.1425.0025.47-0.10-0.07
QuinnipiacMAAC0.190.1438.1037.49-0.05-0.04
CampbellBSth0.110.1328.5729.64-0.05-0.05
High PointBSth0.160.1355.0057.470.020.02
UMBCAE0.100.1224.0026.41-0.05-0.06
DavidsonA100.110.1260.0057.950.020.02
MassachusettsA100.110.1240.9139.32-0.02-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.200.1265.2266.160.060.04
Saint LouisA100.050.1238.1033.40-0.01-0.04
RichmondA100.160.1254.5554.550.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.150.1259.0958.900.030.02
CharlotteCUSA0.200.1234.7840.92-0.06-0.02
DukeACC0.150.1273.9170.060.070.05
LipscombASun0.150.1225.0029.27-0.08-0.05
ManhattanMAAC0.190.1145.0043.21-0.02-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.140.1138.1041.91-0.03-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.170.0921.7424.68-0.09-0.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.110.0952.0050.260.000.00
HartfordAE0.100.0926.0926.50-0.05-0.04
Old DominionCUSA0.110.0956.5262.780.010.02
UMass LowellAE0.160.0931.8232.67-0.06-0.03
VirginiaACC0.100.0982.6178.050.070.05
PennIvy0.160.0938.8937.66-0.04-0.02
AlbanyAE0.100.0975.0075.870.050.05
HamptonMEAC0.100.0957.1459.450.010.02
LibertyBSth0.100.0934.7836.50-0.03-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.100.0966.6765.220.030.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.160.0945.4546.29-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.060.0955.0052.290.010.00
Rhode IslandA100.170.0956.5256.620.020.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.110.0950.0053.300.000.01
LSUSEC0.050.0965.2260.280.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.100.0928.5731.37-0.04-0.03
DuquesneA100.110.0963.6456.370.030.01
TempleAmer0.110.0963.6459.810.030.02
VillanovaBE0.110.0986.9686.370.080.07
Penn St.B100.150.0950.0046.740.00-0.01
VCUA100.160.0973.9173.910.080.04
Boston CollegeACC0.100.0930.4326.49-0.04-0.04
MississippiSEC0.100.0965.2259.020.030.02
South FloridaAmer0.100.0920.8320.12-0.06-0.05
BryantNEC0.100.0925.0026.38-0.05-0.04
Miami OHMAC0.100.0931.8230.48-0.04-0.03
Michigan St.B100.100.0983.3383.010.070.06
TennesseeSEC0.100.0947.8346.87-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.0947.8350.14-0.000.00
ClemsonACC0.150.0960.8760.210.030.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.0940.9140.64-0.02-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.100.0939.1341.12-0.02-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.090.0954.1755.580.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.150.0842.8646.34-0.02-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0650.0051.170.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0659.0959.440.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0654.1752.340.000.00
HowardMEAC0.050.0638.1040.73-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.050.0634.7834.00-0.02-0.02
New HampshireAE0.050.0655.0053.160.010.00
UMKCWAC0.050.0628.5732.71-0.02-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0633.3334.94-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0660.0060.080.010.01
NavyPat0.050.0662.5062.440.010.02
San DiegoWCC0.100.0631.8229.14-0.04-0.03
The CitadelSC0.050.0633.3331.30-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.050.0669.5765.850.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.110.0656.5260.000.010.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0678.2674.360.000.03
LafayettePat0.110.0622.7324.04-0.06-0.03
LehighPat0.100.0633.3337.25-0.03-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.100.0630.0035.78-0.04-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0613.0413.54-0.04-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0615.0022.35-0.03-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.069.5213.53-0.04-0.04
DrakeMVC0.100.0621.7423.66-0.06-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.100.0675.0076.230.050.03
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0654.1750.940.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.100.0621.7423.40-0.06-0.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.100.0647.8348.91-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.100.0643.4842.63-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.100.0669.5766.200.040.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0671.4369.410.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0639.1337.74-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0620.0026.76-0.03-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0654.1755.090.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0647.8344.37-0.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0628.0030.73-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0672.0070.500.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.100.0637.5043.36-0.02-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0650.0049.440.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.100.0675.0071.510.050.03
UABCUSA0.050.0682.6179.430.030.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.100.0628.5731.90-0.04-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.050.0652.1751.930.000.00
UTSACUSA0.050.0613.6413.63-0.04-0.04
WagnerNEC0.100.0663.6465.020.030.02
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0672.7376.350.020.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.0640.9149.26-0.02-0.00
OhioMAC0.110.0661.9059.420.030.01
TulsaAmer0.100.0663.6459.960.030.01
AlabamaSEC0.100.0659.0953.030.020.00
DePaulBE0.100.0634.7834.45-0.03-0.02
DetroitHorz0.050.0647.6245.86-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.050.0665.2266.080.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0661.9056.690.010.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0635.0038.53-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0634.7830.36-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0682.6179.550.030.03
JacksonvilleASun0.100.0650.0049.850.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.100.0614.2917.91-0.07-0.04
North CarolinaACC0.100.0682.6178.690.060.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0690.4886.860.040.04
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0642.8639.18-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.090.0642.1140.20-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0640.0039.00-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0657.8956.090.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.100.0657.8961.750.020.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0633.3334.19-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.050.0638.8938.51-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.050.0623.8126.69-0.03-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0666.6770.540.020.02
AmericanPat0.050.0330.4331.88-0.02-0.01
NJITASun0.050.0354.1755.260.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.050.0372.2274.710.020.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0347.6252.06-0.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.050.0363.6459.230.010.01
ButlerBE0.050.0369.5767.220.020.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0372.7372.450.020.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0340.9143.55-0.01-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.050.0339.1338.32-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.050.0340.0039.79-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0371.4368.720.020.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0333.3332.99-0.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0366.6763.430.020.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0328.5729.71-0.00-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0331.5831.99-0.02-0.01
UCFAmer0.050.0352.3845.670.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0381.8283.030.030.02
WyomingMWC0.050.0343.4842.51-0.01-0.00
YaleIvy0.050.0373.6874.620.020.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0352.1755.930.000.00
AuburnSEC0.050.0340.9136.61-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0323.8126.56-0.03-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0354.5552.810.000.00
IowaB100.050.0381.8280.120.030.02
KentuckySEC0.000.0373.9171.570.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.050.0382.6177.730.030.02
MemphisAmer0.050.0360.8760.800.010.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0376.1968.220.030.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0315.0027.27-0.03-0.01
St. John'sBE0.050.0326.0923.73-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0378.2678.040.030.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0354.1749.290.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.050.0343.4840.60-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.050.0354.5558.150.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.050.0331.5831.77-0.02-0.01
FurmanSC0.050.0352.1753.310.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.050.0363.6459.380.010.01
MercerSC0.050.0372.7370.750.020.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0370.5975.550.020.01
TexasB120.050.0369.5762.640.020.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0333.3332.33-0.02-0.01
WisconsinB100.050.0360.8755.860.010.00