Hofstra

Conference:	CAA
Expected RPI:	325.0
Current RPI:	325
Expected SOS:	219
Current SOS:	219
Current Record:	6-25
Expected Record:	6-25
Current Conf Record:	4-15
Expected Conf Record:	4-15
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-17
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	5-8
Current OOC Record:	2-10
Expected OOC Record:	2-10
Expected OOC RPI:	316
Expected OOC SOS:	204

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
6-25	325.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Hofstra.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Monmouth (282.0)	NEC	A	91-62	L	0%
11-11	Purdue (136.0)	B10	A	83-54	L	0%
11-16	South Dakota St. (62.0)	Sum	H	66-63	W	100%
11-18	Marshall (208.0)	CUSA	H	103-100	W	100%
11-21	Manhattan (183.0)	MAAC	A	67-56	L	0%
11-24	George Washington (147.0)	A10	A	80-56	L	0%
12-1	Southern Methodist (219.0)	CUSA	H	47-73	L	0%
12-4	Wagner (126.0)	NEC	H	44-52	L	0%
12-8	Long Island (179.0)	NEC	A	88-84	L	0%
12-15	Wright St. (129.0)	Horz	H	57-63	L	0%
12-22	Tulane (175.0)	CUSA	H	62-83	L	0%
1-1	Florida Atlantic (218.0)	SB	A	61-57	L	0%
1-7	Georgia St. (209.0)	CAA	H	52-50	W	100%
1-9	Delaware (141.0)	CAA	A	69-54	L	0%
1-12	William & Mary (271.0)	CAA	H	70-59	W	100%
1-16	Northeastern (159.0)	CAA	A	65-60	L	0%
1-19	George Mason (162.0)	CAA	A	57-46	L	0%
1-23	Drexel (206.0)	CAA	H	52-55	L	0%
1-26	NC Wilmington (301.0)	CAA	H	51-57	L	0%
1-31	James Madison (182.0)	CAA	A	62-41	L	0%
2-2	William & Mary (271.0)	CAA	A	72-59	L	0%
2-6	Northeastern (159.0)	CAA	H	57-62	L	0%
2-9	NC Wilmington (301.0)	CAA	A	56-65	W	100%
2-13	Georgia St. (209.0)	CAA	A	61-43	L	0%
2-16	Towson (157.0)	CAA	H	50-57	L	0%
2-18	Drexel (206.0)	CAA	A	63-54	L	0%
2-20	George Mason (162.0)	CAA	H	50-79	L	0%
2-24	Old Dominion (318.0)	CAA	H	70-59	W	100%
2-27	Delaware (141.0)	CAA	H	56-57	L	0%
3-2	Towson (157.0)	CAA	A	67-64	L	0%
3-9	Delaware (141.0)	CAA	N	62-57	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Hofstra's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Hofstra's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Hofstra.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Hofstra	CAA	26.32	26.32	15.83	15.83	-17.99	-17.99
Delaware	CAA	5.60	5.60	53.33	53.33	0.37	0.37
Northeastern	CAA	4.11	4.11	60.00	60.00	0.82	0.82
George Mason	CAA	4.11	4.11	53.33	53.33	0.27	0.27
NC Wilmington	CAA	4.05	4.05	29.63	29.63	-1.65	-1.65
Drexel	CAA	4.05	4.05	37.93	37.93	-0.98	-0.98
Towson	CAA	4.03	4.03	53.57	53.57	0.29	0.29
William & Mary	CAA	4.03	4.03	40.74	40.74	-0.75	-0.75
Georgia St.	CAA	4.01	4.01	46.43	46.43	-0.29	-0.29
James Madison	CAA	2.71	2.71	57.58	57.58	0.41	0.41
Old Dominion	CAA	2.50	2.50	17.24	17.24	-1.64	-1.64
Marshall	CUSA	1.77	1.77	40.00	40.00	-0.35	-0.35
Long Island	NEC	1.77	1.77	59.38	59.38	0.33	0.33
Monmouth	NEC	1.77	1.77	30.00	30.00	-0.71	-0.71
Wagner	NEC	1.76	1.76	60.00	60.00	0.35	0.35
Purdue	B10	1.72	1.72	45.16	45.16	-0.17	-0.17
Tulane	CUSA	1.72	1.72	54.84	54.84	0.17	0.17
Southern Methodist	CUSA	1.72	1.72	43.33	43.33	-0.23	-0.23
Manhattan	MAAC	1.66	1.66	41.94	41.94	-0.27	-0.27
George Washington	A10	1.66	1.66	41.38	41.38	-0.29	-0.29
South Dakota St.	Sum	1.64	1.64	73.33	73.33	0.76	0.76
Florida Atlantic	SB	1.61	1.61	40.00	40.00	-0.32	-0.32
Wright St.	Horz	1.61	1.61	61.29	61.29	0.36	0.36
Richmond	A10	0.24	0.24	56.25	56.25	0.03	0.03
Rider	MAAC	0.23	0.23	56.25	56.25	0.03	0.03
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.22	0.22	29.03	29.03	-0.09	-0.09
Rice	CUSA	0.20	0.20	13.79	13.79	-0.15	-0.15
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.20	0.20	56.25	56.25	0.03	0.03
Radford	BSth	0.18	0.18	34.48	34.48	-0.06	-0.06
Temple	A10	0.18	0.18	71.88	71.88	0.08	0.08
UAB	CUSA	0.18	0.18	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.18	0.18	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
La Salle	A10	0.18	0.18	70.00	70.00	0.07	0.07
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.18	0.18	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.16	0.16	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.16	0.16	27.59	27.59	-0.07	-0.07
East Carolina	CUSA	0.16	0.16	53.85	53.85	0.01	0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.16	0.16	71.88	71.88	0.07	0.07
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.16	0.16	70.97	70.97	0.07	0.07
Fairfield	MAAC	0.15	0.15	55.88	55.88	0.02	0.02
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.15	0.15	22.58	22.58	-0.08	-0.08
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.15	0.15	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Virginia	ACC	0.15	0.15	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Villanova	BE	0.15	0.15	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Lafayette	Pat	0.15	0.15	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.13	0.13	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.13	0.13	22.58	22.58	-0.07	-0.07
South Alabama	SB	0.13	0.13	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Troy	SB	0.13	0.13	36.36	36.36	-0.04	-0.04
Central Florida	CUSA	0.13	0.13	62.07	62.07	0.03	0.03
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.13	0.13	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Memphis	CUSA	0.13	0.13	88.24	88.24	0.10	0.10
Princeton	Ivy	0.13	0.13	59.26	59.26	0.02	0.02
Houston	CUSA	0.13	0.13	60.00	60.00	0.03	0.03
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.13	0.13	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Tulsa	CUSA	0.13	0.13	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.13	0.13	31.03	31.03	-0.05	-0.05
Boston University	AE	0.13	0.13	58.62	58.62	0.02	0.02
Duke	ACC	0.13	0.13	84.38	84.38	0.09	0.09
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.13	0.13	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.13	0.13	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Liberty	BSth	0.11	0.11	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Davidson	SC	0.11	0.11	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
NC Asheville	BSth	0.11	0.11	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.10	0.10	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
Massachusetts	A10	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.10	0.10	23.33	23.33	-0.06	-0.06
Vermont	AE	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Xavier	A10	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.10	0.10	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.10	0.10	17.24	17.24	-0.07	-0.07
Bryant	NEC	0.10	0.10	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
Maryland	ACC	0.10	0.10	64.71	64.71	0.03	0.03
Kansas St.	B12	0.10	0.10	78.79	78.79	0.06	0.06
Ohio	MAC	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Wofford	SC	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
College of Charleston	SC	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
NC Greensboro	SC	0.08	0.08	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
Oregon St.	P12	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.08	0.08	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Fordham	A10	0.08	0.08	22.58	22.58	-0.04	-0.04
Notre Dame	BE	0.08	0.08	73.53	73.53	0.04	0.04
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
IUPUI	Sum	0.08	0.08	13.33	13.33	-0.06	-0.06
Charlotte	A10	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.08	0.08	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Utah	P12	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.08	0.08	80.00	80.00	0.05	0.05
Indiana	B10	0.08	0.08	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
New Mexico	MWC	0.08	0.08	85.29	85.29	0.05	0.05
Morehead St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.08	0.08	84.38	84.38	0.05	0.05
Detroit	Horz	0.08	0.08	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.08	0.08	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Valparaiso	Horz	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.07	0.07	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Pittsburgh	BE	0.07	0.07	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Campbell	BSth	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
High Point	BSth	0.06	0.06	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.06	0.06	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Georgia Southern	SC	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	10.00	10.00	-0.04	-0.04
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Arkansas St.	SB	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.05	0.05	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Florida International	SB	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.05	14.81	14.81	-0.04	-0.04
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.05	0.05	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
North Texas	SB	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
St. Mary's	WCC	0.05	0.05	81.25	81.25	0.03	0.03
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Syracuse	BE	0.05	0.05	74.29	74.29	0.03	0.03
Western Illinois	Sum	0.05	0.05	71.43	71.43	0.02	0.02
Western Kentucky	SB	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Navy	Pat	0.05	0.05	23.33	23.33	-0.03	-0.03
West Virginia	B12	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Maine	AE	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Mercer	ASun	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Siena	MAAC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.05	0.05	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Columbia	Ivy	0.05	0.05	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.05	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
San Diego	WCC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Butler	A10	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Holy Cross	Pat	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Albany	AE	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
American	Pat	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.03	0.03	6.90	6.90	-0.02	-0.02
Elon	SC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Longwood	BSth	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Montana	BSky	0.03	0.03	79.31	79.31	0.02	0.02
Nevada	MWC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	67.86	67.86	0.01	0.01
North Dakota	BSky	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Santa Clara	WCC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Texas Christian	B12	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Texas St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Idaho	WAC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Idaho St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Louisville	BE	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.03	0.03	76.67	76.67	0.01	0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.02	0.02	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.02	0.02	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
San Jose St.	WAC	0.02	0.02	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.02	0.02	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.02	0.02	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01