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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Hofstra

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:196.0
Current RPI:196
Expected SOS:158
Current SOS:158
Current Record:14-17
Expected Record:14-17
Current Conf Record:7-12
Expected Conf Record:7-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-5
Current OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:133
Expected OOC SOS:165



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-17196.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Hofstra.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Coppin St. (336.0)MEACH74-72W100%0.0
11-15Sacred Heart (304.0)NECA90-86L0%0.0
11-18Manhattan (263.0)MAACA80-68L0%0.0
11-21Bradley (220.0)MVCN90-92W100%0.0
11-22Vermont (46.0)AEN73-87L0%0.0
11-23South Dakota (123.0)SumN57-65W100%0.0
11-29Columbia (262.0)IvyA86-88W100%0.0
12-3Florida Atlantic (281.0)CUSAA80-88W100%0.0
12-6St. Bonaventure (91.0)A10H75-81L0%0.0
12-11Kentucky (3.0)SECN96-73L0%0.0
12-13Stony Brook (176.0)AEH96-58W100%0.0
12-22Siena (122.0)MAACH84-64W100%0.0
12-31Delaware (235.0)CAAA56-58W100%0.0
1-2William & Mary (110.0)CAAH93-95L0%0.0
1-5James Madison (255.0)CAAH54-62L0%0.0
1-7College of Charleston (64.0)CAAA77-71L0%0.0
1-12Elon (161.0)CAAA96-80L0%0.0
1-14UNC Wilmington (27.0)CAAA84-76L0%0.0
1-19Towson (88.0)CAAH80-86L0%0.0
1-21Northeastern (136.0)CAAH78-73W100%0.0
1-26Drexel (308.0)CAAA81-80L0%0.0
1-28Elon (161.0)CAAH70-84L0%0.0
2-2Delaware (235.0)CAAH73-65W100%0.0
2-4Drexel (308.0)CAAH79-77W100%0.0
2-9Towson (88.0)CAAA69-65L0%0.0
2-11Northeastern (136.0)CAAA64-74W100%0.0
2-16College of Charleston (64.0)CAAH72-76L0%0.0
2-18UNC Wilmington (27.0)CAAH76-83L0%0.0
2-23William & Mary (110.0)CAAA82-96W100%0.0
2-25James Madison (255.0)CAAA66-71W100%0.0
3-3Delaware (235.0)CAAN76-81L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Hofstra's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Hofstra's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Hofstra.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
HofstraCAA26.3726.3745.1645.16-2.55-2.55
DelawareCAA5.745.7435.7135.71-1.64-1.64
UNC WilmingtonCAA4.324.3283.3383.332.882.88
College of CharlestonCAA4.264.2670.9770.971.791.79
TowsonCAA4.244.2456.6756.670.560.56
James MadisonCAA4.214.2126.6726.67-1.96-1.96
NortheasternCAA4.214.2151.7251.720.150.15
William & MaryCAA4.204.2051.8551.850.160.16
ElonCAA4.164.1650.0050.000.000.00
DrexelCAA4.164.1624.1424.14-2.15-2.15
Stony BrookAE1.801.8060.0060.000.360.36
VermontAE1.741.7484.3884.381.201.20
SienaMAAC1.711.7151.5251.520.050.05
BradleyMVC1.691.6938.7138.71-0.38-0.38
St. BonaventureA101.691.6961.2961.290.380.38
ManhattanMAAC1.661.6629.0329.03-0.70-0.70
ColumbiaIvy1.641.6440.0040.00-0.33-0.33
Coppin St.MEAC1.611.6124.1424.14-0.83-0.83
Florida AtlanticCUSA1.611.6129.6329.63-0.66-0.66
KentuckySEC1.611.6184.8584.851.121.12
Sacred HeartNEC1.611.6138.7138.71-0.36-0.36
South DakotaSum1.611.6166.6766.670.540.54
IonaMAAC0.250.2564.7164.710.070.07
MaineAE0.210.2119.3519.35-0.13-0.13
AlbanyAE0.210.2160.6160.610.040.04
QuinnipiacMAAC0.210.2132.2632.26-0.07-0.07
UMBCAE0.200.2057.1457.140.030.03
MaristMAAC0.200.2025.0025.00-0.10-0.10
YaleIvy0.190.1960.7160.710.040.04
Old DominionCUSA0.190.1961.2961.290.040.04
HartfordAE0.180.1828.1228.12-0.08-0.08
RiderMAAC0.180.1854.5554.550.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.180.1830.3030.30-0.07-0.07
MonmouthMAAC0.170.1781.8281.820.110.11
South FloridaAmer0.160.1623.3323.33-0.09-0.09
La SalleA100.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.150.1559.3859.380.030.03
George MasonA100.150.1559.3859.380.030.03
CanisiusMAAC0.150.1554.5554.550.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
HarvardIvy0.140.1461.5461.540.030.03
CornellIvy0.140.1425.0025.00-0.07-0.07
HamptonMEAC0.140.1442.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.130.1335.4835.48-0.04-0.04
CharlotteCUSA0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.130.1344.8344.83-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.130.1331.0331.03-0.05-0.05
UMass LowellAE0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
New HampshireAE0.130.1358.6258.620.020.02
PennIvy0.110.1146.4346.43-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.110.1117.2417.24-0.07-0.07
DukeACC0.110.1177.1477.140.060.06
Seton HallBE0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.110.1187.8887.880.080.08
Rhode IslandA100.110.1172.7372.730.050.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
RadfordBSth0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.100.1055.8855.880.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Montana St.BSky0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.100.1028.1228.12-0.04-0.04
DrakeMVC0.100.1020.6920.69-0.06-0.06
St. Francis PANEC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.100.1042.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.090.0939.2939.29-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.090.0925.9325.93-0.04-0.04
HowardMEAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0840.7440.74-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.080.0821.4321.43-0.05-0.05
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
RiceCUSA0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
Miami OHMAC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
RutgersB100.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0823.0823.08-0.04-0.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.080.0870.0070.000.030.03
ClemsonACC0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
LafayettePat0.080.0827.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Loyola MDPat0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Coastal CarolinaSB0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.080.0882.3582.350.050.05
RichmondA100.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.080.0810.0010.00-0.06-0.06
Wichita St.MVC0.080.0887.8887.880.060.06
DuquesneA100.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
DavidsonA100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
FloridaSEC0.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
LSUSEC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.060.0678.5778.570.040.04
Miami FLACC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.060.0655.8855.880.010.01
UABCUSA0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0610.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Fort WayneSum0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
High PointBSth0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
HoustonAmer0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
BryantNEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
DaytonA100.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
ToledoMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
WagnerNEC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
WoffordSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
George WashingtonA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
Wake ForestACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
KansasB120.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
TennesseeSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
ColgatePat0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
BYUWCC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.033.333.33-0.03-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
UtahP120.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0396.9796.970.020.02
LehighPat0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
MontanaBSky0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
NebraskaB100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Little RockSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
TCUB120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
TempleAmer0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
WinthropBSth0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
ButlerBE0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Arizona St.P120.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
MissouriSEC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
UCLAP120.020.0287.8887.880.020.02