Hofstra

Conference:	CAA
Expected RPI:	263.0
Current RPI:	263
Expected SOS:	142
Current SOS:	142
Current Record:	10-22
Expected Record:	10-22
Current Conf Record:	3-16
Expected Conf Record:	3-16
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-5
Current OOC Record:	7-6
Expected OOC Record:	7-6
Expected OOC RPI:	190
Expected OOC SOS:	185

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
10-22	263.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Hofstra.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Long Island (80.0)	NEC	H	89-71	W	100%
11-16	Oregon St. (135.0)	P12	A	82-72	L	0%
11-19	St. Francis NY (210.0)	NEC	H	63-59	W	100%
11-22	Florida Atlantic (207.0)	SB	H	60-62	L	0%
11-25	Rhode Island (257.0)	A10	A	85-73	L	0%
11-26	Cleveland St. (85.0)	Horz	N	63-53	W	100%
11-27	Boston University (190.0)	AE	N	68-61	L	0%
12-3	James Madison (261.0)	CAA	H	60-62	L	0%
12-6	Wagner (93.0)	NEC	A	58-43	L	0%
12-10	Manhattan (149.0)	MAAC	H	59-68	L	0%
12-17	Binghamton (344.0)	AE	H	82-62	W	100%
12-22	Colgate (295.0)	Pat	H	82-59	W	100%
12-29	Iona (40.0)	MAAC	H	83-75	W	100%
1-2	Virginia Commonwealth (38.0)	CAA	H	63-80	L	0%
1-4	Delaware (153.0)	CAA	A	67-66	L	0%
1-7	NC Wilmington (214.0)	CAA	A	86-80	L	0%
1-11	Northeastern (172.0)	CAA	H	62-64	L	0%
1-14	Old Dominion (103.0)	CAA	A	69-61	L	0%
1-18	Drexel (64.0)	CAA	H	50-56	L	0%
1-21	James Madison (261.0)	CAA	A	69-71	W	100%
1-23	Virginia Commonwealth (38.0)	CAA	A	61-49	L	0%
1-25	George Mason (82.0)	CAA	H	50-55	L	0%
1-28	Northeastern (172.0)	CAA	A	58-51	L	0%
2-1	Towson (311.0)	CAA	H	74-49	W	100%
2-4	Georgia St. (141.0)	CAA	H	43-59	L	0%
2-8	George Mason (82.0)	CAA	A	72-62	L	0%
2-11	Drexel (64.0)	CAA	A	78-67	L	0%
2-14	Delaware (153.0)	CAA	H	57-71	L	0%
2-18	Siena (218.0)	MAAC	H	81-69	W	100%
2-22	William & Mary (299.0)	CAA	A	75-71	L	0%
2-25	NC Wilmington (214.0)	CAA	H	93-64	W	100%
3-2	Georgia St. (141.0)	CAA	N	85-50	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Hofstra's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Hofstra's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Hofstra.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Hofstra	CAA	26.18	26.18	25.35	25.35	-12.90	-12.90
Drexel	CAA	3.96	3.96	80.65	80.65	2.43	2.43
Georgia St.	CAA	3.96	3.96	63.33	63.33	1.06	1.06
George Mason	CAA	3.96	3.96	70.97	70.97	1.66	1.66
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	3.91	3.91	81.25	81.25	2.44	2.44
NC Wilmington	CAA	3.90	3.90	31.03	31.03	-1.48	-1.48
Delaware	CAA	3.88	3.88	55.17	55.17	0.40	0.40
Northeastern	CAA	3.85	3.85	41.38	41.38	-0.66	-0.66
James Madison	CAA	3.83	3.83	36.67	36.67	-1.02	-1.02
Old Dominion	CAA	2.42	2.42	59.38	59.38	0.45	0.45
Towson	CAA	2.41	2.41	3.23	3.23	-2.26	-2.26
William & Mary	CAA	2.39	2.39	13.33	13.33	-1.75	-1.75
Manhattan	MAAC	1.83	1.83	61.29	61.29	0.41	0.41
Boston University	AE	1.76	1.76	48.39	48.39	-0.06	-0.06
Rhode Island	A10	1.76	1.76	20.00	20.00	-1.05	-1.05
Long Island	NEC	1.71	1.71	78.12	78.12	0.96	0.96
Siena	MAAC	1.71	1.71	46.67	46.67	-0.11	-0.11
Iona	MAAC	1.71	1.71	80.65	80.65	1.05	1.05
Binghamton	AE	1.71	1.71	6.67	6.67	-1.48	-1.48
St. Francis NY	NEC	1.69	1.69	51.72	51.72	0.06	0.06
Florida Atlantic	SB	1.68	1.68	32.14	32.14	-0.60	-0.60
Wagner	NEC	1.66	1.66	80.00	80.00	1.00	1.00
Cleveland St.	Horz	1.66	1.66	70.00	70.00	0.66	0.66
Colgate	Pat	1.61	1.61	27.59	27.59	-0.72	-0.72
Oregon St.	P12	1.59	1.59	54.84	54.84	0.15	0.15
Vermont	AE	0.27	0.27	67.65	67.65	0.10	0.10
Rider	MAAC	0.24	0.24	40.62	40.62	-0.05	-0.05
Fairfield	MAAC	0.24	0.24	57.58	57.58	0.04	0.04
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.22	0.22	58.06	58.06	0.04	0.04
Albany	AE	0.22	0.22	57.58	57.58	0.03	0.03
La Salle	A10	0.22	0.22	63.64	63.64	0.06	0.06
Canisius	MAAC	0.22	0.22	16.67	16.67	-0.15	-0.15
Marist	MAAC	0.20	0.20	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.20	0.20	70.59	70.59	0.08	0.08
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.20	0.20	75.00	75.00	0.10	0.10
Monmouth	NEC	0.20	0.20	37.50	37.50	-0.05	-0.05
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.20	0.20	16.13	16.13	-0.13	-0.13
Niagara	MAAC	0.20	0.20	42.42	42.42	-0.03	-0.03
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.19	0.19	20.69	20.69	-0.11	-0.11
Lafayette	Pat	0.18	0.18	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.18	0.18	27.59	27.59	-0.08	-0.08
Stony Brook	AE	0.17	0.17	70.00	70.00	0.07	0.07
Fordham	A10	0.15	0.15	34.48	34.48	-0.05	-0.05
Massachusetts	A10	0.15	0.15	66.67	66.67	0.05	0.05
Florida International	SB	0.15	0.15	28.57	28.57	-0.06	-0.06
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.15	0.15	10.34	10.34	-0.12	-0.12
Howard	MEAC	0.15	0.15	30.00	30.00	-0.06	-0.06
New Hampshire	AE	0.15	0.15	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Liberty	BSth	0.15	0.15	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Bucknell	Pat	0.15	0.15	71.88	71.88	0.07	0.07
Washington	P12	0.15	0.15	67.74	67.74	0.05	0.05
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.15	0.15	13.33	13.33	-0.11	-0.11
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.15	0.15	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.15	0.15	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.15	0.15	60.71	60.71	0.03	0.03
Radford	BSth	0.15	0.15	13.33	13.33	-0.11	-0.11
Western Kentucky	SB	0.15	0.15	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.14	0.14	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Lehigh	Pat	0.13	0.13	78.12	78.12	0.07	0.07
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.13	0.13	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.12	0.12	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Hampton	MEAC	0.12	0.12	36.36	36.36	-0.03	-0.03
Maine	AE	0.12	0.12	39.29	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
Hartford	AE	0.12	0.12	29.03	29.03	-0.05	-0.05
Brown	Ivy	0.12	0.12	23.33	23.33	-0.07	-0.07
South Florida	BE	0.12	0.12	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.12	0.12	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
George Washington	A10	0.12	0.12	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Virginia	ACC	0.12	0.12	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
Army	Pat	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
St. John's	BE	0.10	0.10	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.10	0.10	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.10	0.10	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Bryant	NEC	0.10	0.10	6.67	6.67	-0.09	-0.09
Cornell	Ivy	0.10	0.10	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.10	0.10	21.88	21.88	-0.05	-0.05
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	75.00	75.00	0.05	0.05
American	Pat	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Navy	Pat	0.08	0.08	7.14	7.14	-0.07	-0.07
Portland	WCC	0.08	0.08	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Dayton	A10	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Temple	A10	0.08	0.08	77.42	77.42	0.04	0.04
Toledo	MAC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.07	0.07	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Marshall	CUSA	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Maryland	ACC	0.07	0.07	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Villanova	BE	0.07	0.07	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.07	0.07	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri	B12	0.07	0.07	88.24	88.24	0.06	0.06
Kent St.	MAC	0.07	0.07	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Texas	B12	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Washington St.	P12	0.07	0.07	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Akron	MAC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.07	0.07	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
NC Greensboro	SC	0.07	0.07	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.07	0.07	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.05	0.05	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
South Alabama	SB	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Troy	SB	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Holy Cross	Pat	0.05	0.05	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Denver	SB	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Harvard	Ivy	0.05	0.05	86.21	86.21	0.04	0.04
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Syracuse	BE	0.05	0.05	93.94	93.94	0.04	0.04
Butler	Horz	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Davidson	SC	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Furman	SC	0.05	0.05	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Valparaiso	Horz	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Central Florida	CUSA	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
California	P12	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Georgia Southern	SC	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Oregon	P12	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Samford	SC	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	10.34	10.34	-0.04	-0.04
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
The Citadel	SC	0.05	0.05	14.29	14.29	-0.03	-0.03
Utah	P12	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.03	-0.03
Utah Valley	GWC	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
North Texas	SB	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
Charlotte	A10	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Connecticut	BE	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Pittsburgh	BE	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Providence	BE	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.03	0.03	21.43	21.43	-0.01	-0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Xavier	A10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.03	0.03	65.38	65.38	0.01	0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.02	0.02	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Belmont	ASun	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.02	0.02	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Chicago St.	GWC	0.02	0.02	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Colorado St.	MWC	0.02	0.02	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Fresno St.	WAC	0.02	0.02	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Idaho	WAC	0.02	0.02	55.17	55.17	0.00	0.00
Michigan	B10	0.02	0.02	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Montana	BSky	0.02	0.02	79.31	79.31	0.01	0.01
Nevada	WAC	0.02	0.02	80.00	80.00	0.01	0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Purdue	B10	0.02	0.02	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Southern California	P12	0.02	0.02	18.75	18.75	-0.02	-0.02
UCLA	P12	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.02	0.02	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.02	0.02	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.02	0.02	94.12	94.12	0.02	0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.02	0.02	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Penn St.	B10	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Texas St.	Slnd	0.02	0.02	34.62	34.62	-0.01	-0.01