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Through games of Mar 11, 2012.


Hofstra

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:263.0
Current RPI:263
Expected SOS:142
Current SOS:142
Current Record:10-22
Expected Record:10-22
Current Conf Record:3-16
Expected Conf Record:3-16
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-5
Current OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:190
Expected OOC SOS:185



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-22263.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Hofstra.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Long Island (80.0)NECH89-71W100%0.0
11-16Oregon St. (135.0)P12A82-72L0%0.0
11-19St. Francis NY (210.0)NECH63-59W100%0.0
11-22Florida Atlantic (207.0)SBH60-62L0%0.0
11-25Rhode Island (257.0)A10A85-73L0%0.0
11-26Cleveland St. (85.0)HorzN63-53W100%0.0
11-27Boston University (190.0)AEN68-61L0%0.0
12-3James Madison (261.0)CAAH60-62L0%0.0
12-6Wagner (93.0)NECA58-43L0%0.0
12-10Manhattan (149.0)MAACH59-68L0%0.0
12-17Binghamton (344.0)AEH82-62W100%0.0
12-22Colgate (295.0)PatH82-59W100%0.0
12-29Iona (40.0)MAACH83-75W100%0.0
1-2Virginia Commonwealth (38.0)CAAH63-80L0%0.0
1-4Delaware (153.0)CAAA67-66L0%0.0
1-7NC Wilmington (214.0)CAAA86-80L0%0.0
1-11Northeastern (172.0)CAAH62-64L0%0.0
1-14Old Dominion (103.0)CAAA69-61L0%0.0
1-18Drexel (64.0)CAAH50-56L0%0.0
1-21James Madison (261.0)CAAA69-71W100%0.0
1-23Virginia Commonwealth (38.0)CAAA61-49L0%0.0
1-25George Mason (82.0)CAAH50-55L0%0.0
1-28Northeastern (172.0)CAAA58-51L0%0.0
2-1Towson (311.0)CAAH74-49W100%0.0
2-4Georgia St. (141.0)CAAH43-59L0%0.0
2-8George Mason (82.0)CAAA72-62L0%0.0
2-11Drexel (64.0)CAAA78-67L0%0.0
2-14Delaware (153.0)CAAH57-71L0%0.0
2-18Siena (218.0)MAACH81-69W100%0.0
2-22William & Mary (299.0)CAAA75-71L0%0.0
2-25NC Wilmington (214.0)CAAH93-64W100%0.0
3-2Georgia St. (141.0)CAAN85-50L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Hofstra's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Hofstra's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Hofstra.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
HofstraCAA26.1826.1825.3525.35-12.90-12.90
DrexelCAA3.963.9680.6580.652.432.43
Georgia St.CAA3.963.9663.3363.331.061.06
George MasonCAA3.963.9670.9770.971.661.66
Virginia CommonwealthCAA3.913.9181.2581.252.442.44
NC WilmingtonCAA3.903.9031.0331.03-1.48-1.48
DelawareCAA3.883.8855.1755.170.400.40
NortheasternCAA3.853.8541.3841.38-0.66-0.66
James MadisonCAA3.833.8336.6736.67-1.02-1.02
Old DominionCAA2.422.4259.3859.380.450.45
TowsonCAA2.412.413.233.23-2.26-2.26
William & MaryCAA2.392.3913.3313.33-1.75-1.75
ManhattanMAAC1.831.8361.2961.290.410.41
Boston UniversityAE1.761.7648.3948.39-0.06-0.06
Rhode IslandA101.761.7620.0020.00-1.05-1.05
Long IslandNEC1.711.7178.1278.120.960.96
SienaMAAC1.711.7146.6746.67-0.11-0.11
IonaMAAC1.711.7180.6580.651.051.05
BinghamtonAE1.711.716.676.67-1.48-1.48
St. Francis NYNEC1.691.6951.7251.720.060.06
Florida AtlanticSB1.681.6832.1432.14-0.60-0.60
WagnerNEC1.661.6680.0080.001.001.00
Cleveland St.Horz1.661.6670.0070.000.660.66
ColgatePat1.611.6127.5927.59-0.72-0.72
Oregon St.P121.591.5954.8454.840.150.15
VermontAE0.270.2767.6567.650.100.10
RiderMAAC0.240.2440.6240.62-0.05-0.05
FairfieldMAAC0.240.2457.5857.580.040.04
QuinnipiacNEC0.220.2258.0658.060.040.04
AlbanyAE0.220.2257.5857.580.030.03
La SalleA100.220.2263.6463.640.060.06
CanisiusMAAC0.220.2216.6716.67-0.15-0.15
MaristMAAC0.200.2043.7543.75-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.200.2070.5970.590.080.08
Loyola MDMAAC0.200.2075.0075.000.100.10
MonmouthNEC0.200.2037.5037.50-0.05-0.05
St. Peter'sMAAC0.200.2016.1316.13-0.13-0.13
NiagaraMAAC0.200.2042.4242.42-0.03-0.03
St. Francis PANEC0.190.1920.6920.69-0.11-0.11
LafayettePat0.180.1841.9441.94-0.03-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.180.1827.5927.59-0.08-0.08
Stony BrookAE0.170.1770.0070.000.070.07
FordhamA100.150.1534.4834.48-0.05-0.05
MassachusettsA100.150.1566.6766.670.050.05
Florida InternationalSB0.150.1528.5728.57-0.06-0.06
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.150.1510.3410.34-0.12-0.12
HowardMEAC0.150.1530.0030.00-0.06-0.06
New HampshireAE0.150.1542.8642.86-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.150.1537.9337.93-0.04-0.04
BucknellPat0.150.1571.8871.880.070.07
WashingtonP120.150.1567.7467.740.050.05
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.150.1513.3313.33-0.11-0.11
PennsylvaniaIvy0.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.150.1543.7543.75-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.150.1560.7160.710.030.03
RadfordBSth0.150.1513.3313.33-0.11-0.11
Western KentuckySB0.150.1545.4545.45-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
LehighPat0.130.1378.1278.120.070.07
Central ConnecticutNEC0.130.1344.8344.83-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
HamptonMEAC0.120.1236.3636.36-0.03-0.03
MaineAE0.120.1239.2939.29-0.03-0.03
HartfordAE0.120.1229.0329.03-0.05-0.05
BrownIvy0.120.1223.3323.33-0.07-0.07
South FloridaBE0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
George WashingtonA100.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
VirginiaACC0.120.1270.9770.970.050.05
ArmyPat0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
BryantNEC0.100.106.676.67-0.09-0.09
CornellIvy0.100.1040.7440.74-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.100.1021.8821.88-0.05-0.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
AmericanPat0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
NavyPat0.080.087.147.14-0.07-0.07
PortlandWCC0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
DaytonA100.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0848.1548.15-0.00-0.00
TempleA100.080.0877.4277.420.040.04
ToledoMAC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
MarshallCUSA0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
MarylandACC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
VillanovaBE0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.070.0746.4346.43-0.01-0.01
MissouriB120.070.0788.2488.240.060.06
Kent St.MAC0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
TexasB120.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Washington St.P120.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Seton HallBE0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
AkronMAC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
NC GreensboroSC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0539.3939.39-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeSB0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
South AlabamaSB0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
TroySB0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
DenverSB0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
HarvardIvy0.050.0586.2186.210.040.04
KansasB120.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
SyracuseBE0.050.0593.9493.940.040.04
ButlerHorz0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
CampbellBSth0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
DavidsonSC0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
FurmanSC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Louisiana TechWAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0564.7164.710.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
Central FloridaCUSA0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Virginia Military InstBSth0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
CaliforniaP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
ColoradoP120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
East Tennessee St.ASun0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Georgia SouthernSC0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
SamfordSC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
StanfordP120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
StetsonASun0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Texas San AntonioSlnd0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
The CitadelSC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
UtahP120.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
Utah ValleyGWC0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
College of CharlestonSC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
LamarSlnd0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
WinthropBSth0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
UABCUSA0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
North TexasSB0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
CharlotteA100.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutBE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
NebraskaB100.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
PittsburghBE0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
St. LouisA100.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
XavierA100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
YaleIvy0.030.0365.3865.380.010.01
Arizona St.P120.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
BelmontASun0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.020.0248.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.GWC0.020.0210.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0238.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.WAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
IdahoWAC0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
MichiganB100.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
MontanaBSky0.020.0279.3179.310.010.01
NevadaWAC0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
PurdueB100.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
Southern CaliforniaP120.020.0218.7518.75-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.020.0239.3939.39-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.020.0294.1294.120.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Texas St.Slnd0.020.0234.6234.62-0.01-0.01