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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Arkansas

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:28.0
Current RPI:28
Expected SOS:46
Current SOS:46
Current Record:25-9
Expected Record:25-9
Current Conf Record:14-7
Expected Conf Record:14-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:8-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-1
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:14
Expected OOC SOS:53



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-928.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Arkansas.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Fort Wayne (178.0)SumH92-83W100%0.0
11-14Southern Illinois (145.0)MVCH90-65W100%0.0
11-18UT Arlington (45.0)SBH71-67W100%0.0
11-22Minnesota (20.0)B10A85-71L0%0.0
11-28Mount St. Mary's (151.0)NECH89-76W100%0.0
12-1Stephen F. Austin (202.0)SlndH78-62W100%0.0
12-3Austin Peay (261.0)OVCH99-62W100%0.0
12-6Houston (54.0)AmerH84-72W100%0.0
12-10North Florida (217.0)ASunH91-76W100%0.0
12-17Texas (156.0)B12N74-77W100%0.0
12-20North Dakota St. (111.0)SumH71-55W100%0.0
12-22Sam Houston St. (194.0)SlndN90-56W100%0.0
12-29Florida (10.0)SECH72-81L0%0.0
1-3Tennessee (82.0)SECA78-82W100%0.0
1-7Kentucky (3.0)SECA97-71L0%0.0
1-10Mississippi St. (150.0)SECH78-84L0%0.0
1-14Missouri (257.0)SECH92-73W100%0.0
1-17Texas A&M (92.0)SECA60-62W100%0.0
1-21LSU (193.0)SECH99-86W100%0.0
1-24Vanderbilt (44.0)SECA70-71W100%0.0
1-28Oklahoma St. (39.0)B12A99-71L0%0.0
2-1Alabama (78.0)SECH87-68W100%0.0
2-4Missouri (257.0)SECA83-78L0%0.0
2-7Vanderbilt (44.0)SECH59-72L0%0.0
2-11LSU (193.0)SECA70-78W100%0.0
2-15South Carolina (42.0)SECA76-83W100%0.0
2-18Mississippi (77.0)SECH98-80W100%0.0
2-22Texas A&M (92.0)SECH86-77W100%0.0
2-25Auburn (113.0)SECA68-79W100%0.0
3-1Florida (10.0)SECA78-65L0%0.0
3-4Georgia (52.0)SECH85-67W100%0.0
3-10Mississippi (77.0)SECN73-72W100%0.0
3-11Vanderbilt (44.0)SECA62-76W100%0.0
3-12Kentucky (3.0)SECN82-65L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Arkansas's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Arkansas's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Arkansas.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ArkansasSEC26.2026.2072.6772.6711.8811.88
VanderbiltSEC5.105.1058.0658.060.820.82
KentuckySEC3.653.6584.3884.382.512.51
Texas A&MSEC3.643.6455.1755.170.380.38
FloridaSEC3.623.6273.3373.331.691.69
MissouriSEC3.583.5823.3323.33-1.91-1.91
MississippiSEC3.563.5664.5264.521.031.03
LSUSEC3.563.5634.4834.48-1.10-1.10
AlabamaSEC2.202.2059.3859.380.410.41
AuburnSEC2.182.1858.0658.060.350.35
GeorgiaSEC2.172.1758.0658.060.350.35
Mississippi St.SEC2.162.1648.3948.39-0.07-0.07
TennesseeSEC2.152.1550.0050.000.000.00
South CarolinaSEC2.112.1170.0070.000.840.84
MinnesotaB101.601.6071.8871.880.700.70
TexasB121.591.5934.3834.38-0.50-0.50
North FloridaASun1.591.5937.9337.93-0.38-0.38
Fort WayneSum1.581.5859.2659.260.290.29
Stephen F. AustinSlnd1.561.5653.5753.570.110.11
Sam Houston St.Slnd1.541.5458.6258.620.270.27
Mount St. Mary'sNEC1.541.5457.5857.580.230.23
Southern IllinoisMVC1.541.5451.6151.610.050.05
UT ArlingtonSB1.541.5476.6776.670.820.82
Austin PeayOVC1.521.5233.3333.33-0.51-0.51
North Dakota St.Sum1.521.5262.9662.960.390.39
HoustonAmer1.521.5270.0070.000.610.61
Oklahoma St.B121.521.5260.0060.000.300.30
Iowa St.B120.200.2069.7069.700.080.08
Northwestern St.Slnd0.190.1936.0036.00-0.05-0.05
Texas TechB120.180.1856.2556.250.020.02
West VirginiaB120.180.1876.4776.470.100.10
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.170.1760.7160.710.040.04
LipscombASun0.170.1756.6756.670.020.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.160.1661.2961.290.040.04
BaylorB120.160.1677.4277.420.090.09
OklahomaB120.160.1635.4835.48-0.05-0.05
KansasB120.160.1687.5087.500.120.12
DenverSum0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.150.1521.4321.43-0.09-0.09
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.140.1476.6776.670.080.08
ConnecticutAmer0.140.1446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.140.1477.7877.780.080.08
IUPUISum0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
South DakotaSum0.130.1364.5264.520.040.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
New OrleansSlnd0.120.1260.7160.710.030.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.120.1232.0032.00-0.04-0.04
Murray St.OVC0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.120.1287.8887.880.090.09
Coastal CarolinaSB0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
Kansas St.B120.120.1260.6160.610.020.02
TCUB120.110.1154.5554.550.010.01
BradleyMVC0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
DaytonA100.110.1176.6776.670.060.06
St. Francis PANEC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.110.1168.5768.570.040.04
Michigan St.B100.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.110.1187.8887.880.080.08
South Dakota St.Sum0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.110.1123.0823.08-0.06-0.06
LamarSlnd0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.100.1044.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
StetsonASun0.100.1027.5927.59-0.04-0.04
TulsaAmer0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Illinois St.MVC0.100.1081.2581.250.060.06
Louisiana MonroeSB0.100.1022.5822.58-0.05-0.05
Arkansas St.SB0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.090.0946.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.090.0967.6567.650.030.03
ArizonaP120.090.0988.2488.240.070.07
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.090.0973.3373.330.040.04
TulaneAmer0.090.0919.3519.35-0.06-0.06
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
High PointBSth0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.090.0953.5753.570.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
UCLAP120.090.0987.8887.880.070.07
ChattanoogaSC0.090.0958.6258.620.020.02
MarquetteBE0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
North DakotaBSky0.080.0867.8667.860.030.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
IndianaB100.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.070.0736.0036.00-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0719.2319.23-0.05-0.05
WoffordSC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0746.4346.43-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
NJITASun0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Texas St.SB0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
UABCUSA0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Miami FLACC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
UCFAmer0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Georgia St.SB0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.070.0796.9796.970.070.07
Little RockSB0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
ClemsonACC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
MercerSC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
WisconsinB100.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
Florida St.ACC0.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
IllinoisB100.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.070.0775.0075.000.030.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.070.0761.2961.290.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
ButlerBE0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
North TexasCUSA0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
SyracuseACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
AmericanPat0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
SMUAmer0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
South FloridaAmer0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
TroySB0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
USCP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
VermontAE0.050.0584.8584.850.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
OregonP120.050.0584.8584.850.030.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.056.906.90-0.04-0.04
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
DrakeMVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.050.0577.1477.140.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
George MasonA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Saint LouisA100.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.040.0461.2961.290.010.01
CreightonBE0.040.0472.7372.730.020.02
MassachusettsA100.040.0445.4545.45-0.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
NorthwesternB100.040.0467.6567.650.020.02
Ohio St.B100.040.0453.1253.120.000.00
Penn St.B100.040.0445.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.040.0435.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.040.0445.4545.45-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.040.0435.4835.48-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.040.0454.5554.550.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.040.0420.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.040.0426.6726.67-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.040.0431.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.040.0434.4834.48-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.040.0445.1645.16-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.040.0410.0010.00-0.03-0.03
WagnerNEC0.040.0451.7251.720.000.00
DelawareCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.033.333.33-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
UC DavisBW0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
UtahP120.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
IdahoBSky0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
OhioMAC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.020.0261.5461.540.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.020.0210.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.020.0287.5087.500.020.02
TempleAmer0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
George WashingtonA100.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
OaklandHorz0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
Oregon St.P120.020.0212.9012.90-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
UNLVMWC0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
IowaB100.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
RutgersB100.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00