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Through games of Dec 5, 2016.


Arkansas

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:43.1
Current RPI:22
Expected SOS:40
Current SOS:66
Current Record:6-1
Expected Record:21-10
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:10-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-0
Current OOC Record:6-1
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:24
Expected OOC SOS:41



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
28-34.20.04%
27-46.60.11%
26-59.30.53%
25-613.12.04%
24-717.05.10%
23-821.89.72%
22-927.914.98%
21-1035.318.87%
20-1144.317.29%
19-1255.114.26%
18-1368.19.19%
17-1481.64.97%
16-1598.32.00%
15-16117.50.64%
14-17136.70.18%
13-18150.00.06%
12-19161.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Arkansas.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Fort Wayne (113.7)SumH92-83W100%0.0
11-14Southern Illinois (145.0)MVCH90-65W100%0.0
11-18UT Arlington (67.2)SBH71-67W100%0.0
11-22Minnesota (36.8)B10A85-71L0%0.0
11-28Mount St. Mary's (176.2)NECH89-76W100%0.0
12-1Stephen F. Austin (173.7)SlndH78-62W100%0.0
12-3Austin Peay (231.6)OVCH99-62W100%0.0
12-6Houston (36.4)AmerH0-053%0.8
12-10North Florida (250.7)ASunH0-096%21.1
12-17Texas (119.8)B12N0-064%4.3
12-20North Dakota St. (145.1)SumH0-087%13.8
12-22Sam Houston St. (168.0)SlndN0-088%14.1
12-29Florida (9.4)SECH0-040%-3.0
1-3Tennessee (130.1)SECA0-061%3.4
1-7Kentucky (9.3)SECA0-013%-13.5
1-10Mississippi St. (151.4)SECH0-085%12.2
1-14Missouri (184.5)SECH0-084%11.8
1-17Texas A&M (42.1)SECA0-034%-5.0
1-21LSU (93.6)SECH0-078%9.2
1-24Vanderbilt (79.4)SECA0-051%0.4
1-28Oklahoma St. (57.4)B12A0-036%-4.4
2-1Alabama (121.7)SECH0-074%7.7
2-4Missouri (184.5)SECA0-068%5.6
2-7Vanderbilt (79.4)SECH0-071%6.6
2-11LSU (93.6)SECA0-060%3.0
2-15South Carolina (20.0)SECA0-029%-6.7
2-18Mississippi (119.9)SECH0-082%10.9
2-22Texas A&M (42.1)SECH0-054%1.2
2-25Auburn (87.1)SECA0-056%1.7
3-1Florida (9.4)SECA0-022%-9.2
3-4Georgia (72.2)SECH0-069%6.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Arkansas's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Arkansas's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Arkansas.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ArkansasSEC28.8026.1185.7164.2920.577.46
LSUSEC0.003.8471.4350.510.000.04
VanderbiltSEC0.453.8450.0046.510.00-0.27
Texas A&MSEC0.003.8471.4366.930.001.30
FloridaSEC0.003.8187.5075.810.001.97
MissouriSEC0.003.7857.1443.790.00-0.47
KentuckySEC0.892.3187.5082.690.671.51
AuburnSEC0.002.2885.7157.820.000.36
AlabamaSEC0.002.2857.1452.650.000.12
GeorgiaSEC0.002.2557.1452.760.000.12
MississippiSEC0.002.2375.0049.660.00-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.002.2275.0049.120.00-0.04
South CarolinaSEC0.002.22100.0078.970.001.29
TennesseeSEC0.002.2240.0041.23-0.00-0.39
TexasB120.451.7557.1438.530.06-0.40
MinnesotaB108.501.7585.7166.826.070.59
North FloridaASun0.001.7412.5036.20-0.00-0.48
Fort WayneSum7.741.7383.3373.495.160.81
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.001.7050.0059.780.000.33
Stephen F. AustinSlnd7.141.7033.3357.54-2.380.26
Southern IllinoisMVC7.991.6966.6750.902.660.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC8.551.6912.5050.06-6.410.00
UT ArlingtonSB7.991.6971.4369.803.420.67
Austin PeayOVC7.651.6740.0038.06-1.53-0.40
North Dakota St.Sum0.001.6757.1461.100.000.37
HoustonAmer0.001.6785.7179.030.000.97
Oklahoma St.B120.001.6671.4353.900.000.13
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.2320.0041.82-0.00-0.04
Texas TechB120.000.1987.5061.690.000.04
West VirginiaB120.400.1985.7183.370.280.12
OklahomaB120.000.1871.4347.980.00-0.01
Iowa St.B120.400.1875.0071.600.200.08
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.1860.0062.450.000.04
DenverSum0.000.1742.8645.37-0.00-0.02
LipscombASun0.000.1712.5033.13-0.00-0.06
BaylorB120.000.16100.0076.260.000.08
KansasB120.000.1687.5075.540.000.08
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.1525.0043.19-0.00-0.02
South DakotaSum0.000.1550.0046.970.00-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.150.0022.65-0.00-0.08
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.450.1457.1471.900.060.06
ConnecticutAmer0.000.1442.8644.97-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1475.0054.990.000.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.1375.0086.690.000.10
BelmontOVC0.000.1350.0064.320.000.04
Kansas St.B120.000.1387.5058.670.000.02
TCUB120.000.13100.0061.160.000.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.1212.5030.38-0.00-0.05
New OrleansSlnd0.000.1240.0041.81-0.00-0.02
IUPUISum0.000.1237.5052.01-0.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1237.5050.86-0.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.1225.0040.38-0.00-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.000.120.0016.82-0.00-0.08
StetsonASun0.000.1225.0026.79-0.00-0.05
Louisiana MonroeSB0.890.1116.6729.78-0.60-0.05
TulsaAmer0.000.1150.0037.680.00-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.000.1144.4441.39-0.00-0.02
Miami OHMAC1.110.1142.8631.01-0.16-0.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.1157.1450.090.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.1175.0066.390.000.04
Murray St.OVC0.510.1150.0061.230.000.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.1125.0038.85-0.00-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.450.1171.4363.370.190.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.960.1150.0066.260.000.04
DaytonA100.600.1171.4373.210.260.05
BradleyMVC0.000.1142.8627.99-0.00-0.05
ArizonaP120.000.1175.0068.820.000.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.1157.1471.550.000.05
TulaneAmer0.000.1112.5023.71-0.00-0.06
MemphisAmer0.000.1175.0055.960.000.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.1133.3339.82-0.00-0.02
MichiganB100.400.1075.0066.440.200.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0940.0054.40-0.000.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.090.0039.21-0.00-0.02
LamarSlnd0.000.0950.0041.280.00-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.090.0017.61-0.00-0.06
North DakotaBSky0.000.0933.3355.65-0.000.01
NJITASun0.000.0950.0049.830.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0925.0027.54-0.00-0.04
IndianaB100.510.0887.5074.500.380.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.510.0850.0042.070.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.0850.0059.930.000.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.0857.1436.140.00-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.510.0860.0067.730.100.03
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0860.0058.500.000.01
XavierBE0.000.0887.5070.960.000.04
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0842.8644.47-0.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0837.5034.91-0.00-0.02
WoffordSC0.000.080.0034.79-0.00-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0816.6729.76-0.00-0.03
High PointBSth0.000.0842.8646.59-0.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0875.0066.550.000.03
South AlabamaSB0.000.0871.4358.010.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0885.7169.610.000.03
Georgia St.SB0.000.0850.0060.750.000.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0871.4354.990.000.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.080.0026.80-0.00-0.04
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0825.0020.75-0.00-0.05
UCFAmer0.000.0885.7175.770.000.04
Little RockSB0.000.0866.6761.540.000.02
IllinoisB100.000.0862.5050.590.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.0887.5081.950.000.05
UCLAP120.000.08100.0086.530.000.06
Virginia TechACC0.000.0885.7163.030.000.02
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0871.4372.990.000.04
GonzagaWCC0.000.08100.0092.290.000.07
MarquetteBE0.000.0875.0066.420.000.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.080.0035.97-0.00-0.02
Seton HallBE0.000.0871.4354.780.000.01
WisconsinB100.000.0877.7875.900.000.04
MarylandB100.000.0887.5059.220.000.01
BucknellPat0.000.0866.6766.310.000.03
Florida St.ACC0.450.0887.5065.300.330.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0871.4355.810.000.01
MercerSC0.000.0842.8647.76-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0855.5658.500.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0887.5076.180.000.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0642.8637.07-0.00-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0642.8650.33-0.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0662.5060.410.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0625.0030.31-0.00-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.450.0633.3330.48-0.15-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0642.8638.92-0.00-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0642.8647.13-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.000.0614.2935.75-0.00-0.02
SyracuseACC0.000.0662.5062.160.000.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0620.0022.80-0.00-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.510.0662.5052.110.130.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0616.6738.62-0.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0650.0043.470.00-0.01
TroySB0.000.0642.8636.17-0.00-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0550.0051.000.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0542.8643.69-0.00-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.050.0013.57-0.00-0.04
AmericanPat0.000.0514.2931.33-0.00-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0525.0043.21-0.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0520.0037.70-0.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0587.5082.460.000.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0566.6761.650.000.01
DavidsonA100.000.0571.4363.160.000.01
DrakeMVC0.000.050.0019.63-0.00-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0577.7849.540.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0583.3380.140.000.03
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0542.8650.61-0.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0571.4358.580.000.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0533.3352.72-0.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0571.4367.900.000.02
OregonP120.000.0575.0072.660.000.02
Saint LouisA100.000.0528.5723.79-0.00-0.03
SMUAmer0.000.0566.6766.700.000.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0557.1432.990.00-0.02
USCP120.000.05100.0076.430.000.03
VCUA100.000.0575.0073.000.000.02
VermontAE0.000.0562.5071.360.000.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.0575.0054.510.000.00
George MasonA100.400.0562.5046.900.10-0.00
LehighPat0.000.0542.8666.59-0.000.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.0587.5075.700.000.03
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0585.7174.850.000.03
BryantNEC0.000.0525.0047.73-0.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.000.05100.0074.430.000.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0533.3332.88-0.00-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0571.4351.460.000.00
DukeACC0.000.0588.8978.500.000.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0516.6739.71-0.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0575.0066.180.000.02
Ohio St.B100.000.0587.5068.530.000.02
Penn St.B100.000.0566.6746.480.00-0.00
PurdueB100.000.0575.0075.290.000.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0522.2241.58-0.00-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0533.3332.43-0.00-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.0571.4370.390.000.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0512.5025.29-0.00-0.03
WagnerNEC0.000.0533.3354.84-0.000.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0537.5033.64-0.00-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.890.0320.0021.78-0.54-0.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0375.0070.650.000.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0350.0064.470.000.01
DetroitHorz0.000.030.0020.87-0.00-0.02
IdahoBSky0.000.0350.0053.260.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.510.030.0025.42-0.51-0.01
NavyPat0.000.0325.0037.38-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0020.80-0.00-0.02
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0077.540.000.02
OhioMAC0.000.0383.3371.480.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.0340.0058.95-0.000.01
UC DavisBW0.000.0350.0045.480.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.510.0322.2238.53-0.28-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0371.4356.310.000.00
DelawareCAA0.600.0350.0041.890.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0350.0045.860.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.600.0357.1453.600.090.00
FordhamA100.450.0350.0041.470.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0325.0046.05-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0089.440.000.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.030.0023.86-0.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0350.0057.680.000.00
CampbellBSth0.000.0342.8639.28-0.00-0.01
CornellIvy0.000.0328.5729.87-0.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.000.0333.3356.18-0.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0333.3352.06-0.000.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0355.5641.720.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.0355.5647.990.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.000.0320.0046.85-0.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.0337.5047.02-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.000.0333.3348.14-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0357.1472.470.000.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0375.0070.290.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0314.2938.31-0.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0385.7176.970.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0325.0023.16-0.00-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0314.2931.46-0.00-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0333.3327.09-0.00-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0362.5069.240.000.01
TempleAmer0.000.0375.0064.560.000.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0362.5052.000.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0357.1467.190.000.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0362.5043.350.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.0320.0035.62-0.00-0.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0362.5040.600.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0357.1429.850.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0337.5044.24-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0328.5731.08-0.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.000.0375.0062.390.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0017.13-0.00-0.02
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0076.680.000.01
DuquesneA100.000.0344.4442.09-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0371.4355.680.000.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0362.5043.210.00-0.00
IowaB100.000.0344.4438.90-0.00-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0357.1454.410.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.030.0038.15-0.00-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.400.0342.8645.99-0.06-0.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0371.4358.620.000.00
MontanaBSky0.000.0325.0048.76-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.000.0357.1444.820.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0342.8645.86-0.00-0.00
RutgersB100.000.0385.7145.270.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0342.8645.35-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.450.0344.4436.52-0.05-0.01
UMBCAE0.000.0380.0054.500.000.00