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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Arkansas

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:133.0
Current RPI:133
Expected SOS:66
Current SOS:66
Current Record:16-16
Expected Record:16-16
Current Conf Record:9-10
Expected Conf Record:9-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-8
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:161
Expected OOC SOS:70



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-16133.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Arkansas.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Southern (186.0)SWACH86-68W100%0.0
11-18Akron (34.0)MACH80-88L0%0.0
11-20Charleston Southern (298.0)BSthH93-75W100%0.0
11-26Georgia Tech (69.0)ACCN83-73L0%0.0
11-27Stanford (86.0)P12N69-66L0%0.0
12-1Northwestern St. (344.0)SlndH117-78W100%0.0
12-4Wake Forest (159.0)ACCA88-85L0%0.0
12-8Evansville (93.0)MVCH89-76W100%0.0
12-12Tennessee Tech (134.0)OVCH83-57W100%0.0
12-19Mercer (194.0)SCH66-69L0%0.0
12-22North Florida (161.0)ASunH97-72W100%0.0
12-30Dayton (21.0)A10A85-81L0%0.0
1-2Texas A&M (18.0)SECA92-69L0%0.0
1-5Vanderbilt (63.0)SECH90-85W100%0.0
1-9Mississippi St. (154.0)SECH82-68W100%0.0
1-12Missouri (222.0)SECA61-94W100%0.0
1-16LSU (94.0)SECA76-74L0%0.0
1-21Kentucky (11.0)SECH66-80L0%0.0
1-23Georgia (62.0)SECA76-73L0%0.0
1-27Texas A&M (18.0)SECH74-71W100%0.0
1-30Texas Tech (36.0)B12H75-68W100%0.0
2-3Florida (55.0)SECA87-83L0%0.0
2-6Tennessee (143.0)SECH85-67W100%0.0
2-9Mississippi St. (154.0)SECA78-46L0%0.0
2-13Mississippi (96.0)SECA76-60L0%0.0
2-17Auburn (175.0)SECH86-90L0%0.0
2-20Missouri (222.0)SECH84-72W100%0.0
2-23LSU (94.0)SECH85-65W100%0.0
2-27Tennessee (143.0)SECA65-75W100%0.0
3-2Alabama (73.0)SECA61-62W100%0.0
3-5South Carolina (65.0)SECH61-76L0%0.0
3-10Florida (55.0)SECN68-61L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Arkansas's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Arkansas's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Arkansas.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ArkansasSEC26.0826.0844.7844.78-2.73-2.73
Texas A&MSEC3.833.8378.1278.122.152.15
LSUSEC3.823.8258.0658.060.620.62
TennesseeSEC3.763.7646.8846.88-0.23-0.23
Mississippi St.SEC3.733.7344.8344.83-0.39-0.39
FloridaSEC3.733.7354.8454.840.360.36
MissouriSEC3.653.6534.4834.48-1.13-1.13
GeorgiaSEC2.292.2958.0658.060.370.37
KentuckySEC2.282.2875.7675.761.181.18
VanderbiltSEC2.282.2861.2961.290.510.51
MississippiSEC2.252.2561.2961.290.510.51
AuburnSEC2.242.2433.3333.33-0.75-0.75
AlabamaSEC2.242.2458.0658.060.360.36
South CarolinaSEC2.222.2273.3373.331.031.03
Georgia TechACC1.661.6656.2556.250.210.21
Wake ForestACC1.661.6633.3333.33-0.55-0.55
DaytonA101.641.6477.4277.420.900.90
North FloridaASun1.631.6365.5265.520.510.51
Charleston SouthernBSth1.611.6123.0823.08-0.87-0.87
SouthernSWAC1.611.6163.3363.330.430.43
Texas TechB121.611.6163.3363.330.430.43
Northwestern St.Slnd1.611.6121.7421.74-0.91-0.91
AkronMAC1.591.5975.0075.000.800.80
StanfordP121.591.5946.4346.43-0.11-0.11
MercerSC1.591.5953.3353.330.110.11
EvansvilleMVC1.561.5675.0075.000.780.78
Tennessee TechOVC1.561.5662.9662.960.410.41
East Tennessee St.SC0.200.2065.6265.620.060.06
North Carolina St.ACC0.200.2048.4848.48-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.200.2051.5251.520.010.01
BaylorB120.180.1865.6265.620.060.06
Gardner WebbBSth0.180.1846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.180.1859.3859.380.030.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.170.1755.1755.170.020.02
ClemsonACC0.170.1754.8454.840.020.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.160.1632.2632.26-0.06-0.06
UNC AshevilleBSth0.150.1564.5264.520.040.04
XavierBE0.150.1584.3884.380.100.10
Kennesaw St.ASun0.150.1531.0331.03-0.06-0.06
WoffordSC0.150.1543.3343.33-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
Miami FLACC0.150.1578.1278.120.080.08
RichmondA100.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
ArizonaP120.140.1475.7675.760.070.07
LipscombASun0.130.1332.2632.26-0.05-0.05
ChattanoogaSC0.130.1384.3884.380.090.09
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.130.1324.2424.24-0.06-0.06
Texas SouthernSWAC0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
TulaneAmer0.120.1235.2935.29-0.04-0.04
USC UpstateASun0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Oklahoma St.B120.120.1237.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Arizona St.P120.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
LouisvilleACC0.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
TCUB120.120.1236.3636.36-0.03-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.110.1126.9226.92-0.05-0.05
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.110.1157.6957.690.020.02
High PointBSth0.110.1164.2964.290.030.03
WinthropBSth0.110.1168.9768.970.040.04
Austin PeayOVC0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.100.1022.8622.86-0.06-0.06
Tennessee St.OVC0.100.1064.2964.290.030.03
Wichita St.MVC0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.100.1011.1111.11-0.08-0.08
Miami OHMAC0.100.1037.5037.50-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.100.1087.8887.880.070.07
Northern IllinoisMAC0.100.1058.6258.620.020.02
OklahomaB120.100.1078.1278.120.050.05
West VirginiaB120.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
DukeACC0.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
Iowa St.B120.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.1079.4179.410.060.06
SyracuseACC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
BelmontOVC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
ColoradoP120.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
UtahP120.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0876.6776.670.040.04
OregonP120.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
IllinoisB100.080.0844.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
NJITASun0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Saint LouisA100.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
MemphisAmer0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
Green BayHorz0.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
VillanovaBE0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
VCUA100.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.0735.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
George MasonA100.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
VirginiaACC0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
DuquesneA100.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.070.0712.9012.90-0.05-0.05
PurdueB100.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
George WashingtonA100.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.0725.0025.00-0.03-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.070.0725.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0725.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0782.1482.140.040.04
CampbellBSth0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Oregon St.P120.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
WashingtonP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
IowaB100.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
HawaiiBW0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
SamfordSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
VMISC0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
DavidsonA100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
St. John'sBE0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
La SalleA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Seton HallBE0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
St. BonaventureA100.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
Ohio St.B100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0524.2424.24-0.02-0.02
AmericanPat0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
DrakeMVC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
HoustonAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
NavyPat0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
VermontAE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
ArmyPat0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
ButlerBE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
NebraskaB100.050.0547.0647.06-0.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0356.0056.000.000.00
LamarSlnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.02-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0358.0658.060.010.01
RadfordBSth0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.030.0339.3939.39-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0383.8783.870.020.02
SMUAmer0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
USCP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Washington St.P120.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.030.0318.5218.52-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
BucknellPat0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
DrexelCAA0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0379.3179.310.010.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
IndianaB100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
RutgersB100.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
TulsaAmer0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
UABCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
UMBCAE0.030.0321.8821.88-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
OaklandHorz0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
TowsonCAA0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
TroySB0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
IonaMAAC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
ToledoMAC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
AlbanyAE0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00