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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Arkansas

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:19.0
Current RPI:19
Expected SOS:42
Current SOS:42
Current Record:26-8
Expected Record:26-8
Current Conf Record:15-6
Expected Conf Record:15-6
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:8-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-0
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:15
Expected OOC SOS:47



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-819.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Arkansas.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Alabama St. (258.0)SWACH97-79W100%0.0
11-19Wake Forest (150.0)ACCH83-53W100%0.0
11-21Delaware St. (204.0)MEACH99-71W100%0.0
11-25SMU (12.0)AmerA72-78W100%0.0
11-28North Texas (224.0)CUSAH89-73W100%0.0
11-30Iona (51.0)MAACH94-77W100%0.0
12-4Iowa St. (9.0)B12A95-77L0%0.0
12-7Clemson (106.0)ACCA68-65L0%0.0
12-13Dayton (32.0)A10H69-55W100%0.0
12-20Southeast Missouri St. (289.0)OVCH84-67W100%0.0
12-22Milwaukee (206.0)HorzH84-54W100%0.0
12-28Northwestern St. (161.0)SlndH100-92W100%0.0
1-3Utah Valley (308.0)WACH79-46W100%0.0
1-6Georgia (38.0)SECA75-79W100%0.0
1-10Vanderbilt (104.0)SECH82-70W100%0.0
1-13Tennessee (96.0)SECA74-69L0%0.0
1-17Mississippi (60.0)SECH82-96L0%0.0
1-22Alabama (85.0)SECH93-91W100%0.0
1-24Missouri (218.0)SECA60-61W100%0.0
1-27Tennessee (96.0)SECH69-64W100%0.0
1-31Florida (72.0)SECA57-56L0%0.0
2-3South Carolina (91.0)SECH75-55W100%0.0
2-7Mississippi St. (216.0)SECH61-41W100%0.0
2-10Auburn (129.0)SECA87-101W100%0.0
2-14Mississippi (60.0)SECA70-71W100%0.0
2-18Missouri (218.0)SECH84-69W100%0.0
2-21Mississippi St. (216.0)SECA61-65W100%0.0
2-24Texas A&M (67.0)SECH81-75W100%0.0
2-28Kentucky (1.0)SECA84-67L0%0.0
3-5South Carolina (91.0)SECA74-78W100%0.0
3-7LSU (57.0)SECH78-81L0%0.0
3-13Tennessee (96.0)SECN80-72W100%0.0
3-14Georgia (38.0)SECN60-49W100%0.0
3-15Kentucky (1.0)SECN78-63L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Arkansas's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Arkansas's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Arkansas.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ArkansasSEC26.2126.2176.3976.3913.8313.83
TennesseeSEC4.994.9951.7251.720.170.17
South CarolinaSEC3.753.7553.3353.330.250.25
MississippiSEC3.613.6163.3363.330.960.96
KentuckySEC3.613.61100.00100.003.613.61
GeorgiaSEC3.603.6070.0070.001.441.44
MissouriSEC3.583.5827.5927.59-1.61-1.61
Mississippi St.SEC3.583.5841.3841.38-0.62-0.62
AuburnSEC2.282.2842.4242.42-0.35-0.35
VanderbiltSEC2.212.2160.0060.000.440.44
FloridaSEC2.182.1846.8846.88-0.14-0.14
LSUSEC2.162.1667.7467.740.770.77
Texas A&MSEC2.142.1466.6766.670.710.71
AlabamaSEC2.132.1356.6756.670.280.28
ClemsonACC1.581.5850.0050.000.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC1.561.5640.7440.74-0.29-0.29
Wake ForestACC1.561.5641.9441.94-0.25-0.25
IonaMAAC1.541.5478.7978.790.890.89
Delaware St.MEAC1.541.5450.0050.000.000.00
DaytonA101.541.5478.1278.120.870.87
Iowa St.B121.541.5475.0075.000.770.77
North TexasCUSA1.511.5142.8642.86-0.22-0.22
Northwestern St.Slnd1.491.4957.6957.690.230.23
MilwaukeeHorz1.491.4944.4444.44-0.17-0.17
Alabama St.SWAC1.471.4765.3865.380.450.45
SMUAmer1.471.4783.8783.871.001.00
Utah ValleyWAC1.471.4733.3333.33-0.49-0.49
KansasB120.200.2076.4776.470.110.11
Texas SouthernSWAC0.190.1964.7164.710.060.06
Oklahoma St.B120.190.1956.6756.670.030.03
Georgia TechACC0.190.1938.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Kansas St.B120.180.1846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.180.1818.7518.75-0.11-0.11
Florida St.ACC0.160.1651.5251.520.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.160.1660.6160.610.030.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.150.1540.7440.74-0.03-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.150.1546.8846.88-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Texas TechB120.140.1440.6240.62-0.03-0.03
OklahomaB120.140.1468.7568.750.050.05
MercerSC0.140.1451.6151.610.000.00
BaylorB120.140.1471.8871.880.060.06
TCUB120.140.1454.5554.550.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.120.1210.3410.34-0.09-0.09
Tennessee TechOVC0.120.1235.7135.71-0.03-0.03
Saint LouisA100.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
ConnecticutAmer0.110.1158.8258.820.020.02
VCUA100.110.1174.2974.290.060.06
North CarolinaACC0.110.1168.5768.570.040.04
TexasB120.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.110.1186.6786.670.080.08
Alabama A&MSWAC0.100.1028.5728.57-0.04-0.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.100.1026.9226.92-0.05-0.05
ValparaisoHorz0.100.1083.3383.330.070.07
OaklandHorz0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.100.1021.4321.43-0.06-0.06
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
CharlotteCUSA0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.090.0961.7661.760.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
TroySB0.090.0929.6329.63-0.04-0.04
TempleAmer0.090.0969.7069.700.040.04
LouisvilleACC0.090.0975.0075.000.040.04
MonmouthMAAC0.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.086.906.90-0.07-0.07
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0838.4638.46-0.02-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.080.0830.7730.77-0.03-0.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0827.5927.59-0.03-0.03
RiceCUSA0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0772.4172.410.030.03
ArizonaP120.070.0791.1891.180.060.06
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0777.4277.420.040.04
LamarSlnd0.070.0742.3142.31-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0725.9325.93-0.03-0.03
CreightonBE0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0725.9325.93-0.03-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
LipscombASun0.070.0739.2939.29-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
UABCUSA0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
Notre DameACC0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
DukeACC0.070.0787.8887.880.050.05
North FloridaASun0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.070.0725.8125.81-0.03-0.03
VirginiaACC0.070.0790.6290.620.060.06
Virginia TechACC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0760.7160.710.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.070.0720.6920.69-0.04-0.04
Oregon St.P120.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
ButlerBE0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.070.0793.9493.940.060.06
MarquetteBE0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
OregonP120.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.070.0768.9768.970.030.03
ColoradoP120.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0724.1424.14-0.03-0.03
West VirginiaB120.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
UCLAP120.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
MassachusettsA100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.070.0770.0070.000.030.03
HamptonMEAC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
SienaMAAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.04-0.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.050.000.00-0.05-0.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
DetroitHorz0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Green BayHorz0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.050.0583.3383.330.040.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
SeattleWAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
UTSACUSA0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Weber St.BSky0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Arizona St.P120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
RutgersB100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0527.2727.27-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
PittsburghACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.056.906.90-0.04-0.04
PennIvy0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
YaleIvy0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
AkronMAC0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0559.2659.260.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
CornellIvy0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.050.0555.1755.170.000.00
RichmondA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.040.0423.3323.33-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.040.0436.6736.67-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.040.0430.0030.00-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.040.0444.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.040.0456.2556.250.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.040.0475.8675.860.020.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.040.0429.0329.03-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.040.0426.6726.67-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.040.0471.8871.880.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.040.0453.3353.330.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.040.0444.4444.44-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.040.0422.5822.58-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.040.0421.8821.88-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.040.0426.6726.67-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.040.0466.6766.670.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
RiderMAAC0.040.0465.6265.620.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.040.0447.0647.06-0.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0358.3358.330.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
UtahP120.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0323.0823.08-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
DePaulBE0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.030.0379.3179.310.020.02
WisconsinB100.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
FIUCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
NevadaMWC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
TowsonCAA0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.020.0287.1087.100.020.02
BucknellPat0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
IndianaB100.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
MichiganB100.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
SamfordSC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
WyomingMWC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
DelawareCAA0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
George WashingtonA100.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
HawaiiBW0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
IowaB100.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
MarylandB100.020.0281.8281.820.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
NJITind0.020.0256.0056.000.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
DrexelCAA0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0265.5265.520.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.020.0281.2581.250.010.01