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Through games of Nov 23, 2014.


Arkansas

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:32.7
Current RPI:55
Expected SOS:71
Current SOS:157
Current Record:3-0
Expected Record:23-8
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:3-0
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:22
Expected OOC SOS:73



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
30-13.30.03%
29-24.70.19%
28-35.30.90%
27-47.92.69%
26-511.36.84%
25-615.212.07%
24-720.916.54%
23-827.318.07%
22-936.116.20%
21-1047.012.29%
20-1158.88.00%
19-1272.03.63%
18-1388.41.77%
17-14107.30.52%
16-15127.30.19%
15-16146.80.06%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Arkansas.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Alabama St. (222.4)SWACH97-79W100%0.0
11-19Wake Forest (133.5)ACCH83-53W100%0.0
11-21Delaware St. (253.9)MEACH99-71W100%0.0
11-25SMU (30.8)AmerA0-043%-2.1
11-28North Texas (220.9)CUSAH0-096%20.4
11-30Iona (62.2)MAACH0-079%9.8
12-4Iowa St. (61.9)B12A0-047%-0.9
12-7Clemson (118.4)ACCA0-056%1.9
12-13Dayton (41.0)A10H0-069%5.8
12-20Southeast Missouri St. (266.2)OVCH0-097%21.9
12-22Milwaukee (267.5)HorzH0-095%20.1
12-28Northwestern St. (181.5)SlndH0-093%17.9
1-3Utah Valley (229.7)WACH0-096%21.2
1-6Georgia (74.7)SECA0-054%1.3
1-10Vanderbilt (131.2)SECH0-084%12.0
1-13Tennessee (163.9)SECA0-071%6.8
1-17Mississippi (84.9)SECH0-078%9.4
1-22Alabama (64.7)SECH0-075%8.0
1-24Missouri (114.1)SECA0-062%3.8
1-27Tennessee (163.9)SECH0-088%14.0
1-31Florida (27.3)SECA0-035%-4.8
2-3South Carolina (105.2)SECH0-078%9.2
2-7Mississippi St. (172.6)SECH0-089%15.0
2-10Auburn (155.3)SECA0-073%7.3
2-14Mississippi (84.9)SECA0-057%2.2
2-18Missouri (114.1)SECH0-082%11.0
2-21Mississippi St. (172.6)SECA0-074%7.9
2-24Texas A&M (39.5)SECH0-065%4.5
2-28Kentucky (2.6)SECA0-014%-12.9
3-5South Carolina (105.2)SECA0-057%2.0
3-7LSU (72.8)SECH0-077%9.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Arkansas's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Arkansas's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Arkansas.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ArkansasSEC38.1926.15100.0073.0438.1912.05
MississippiSEC0.003.8675.0056.570.000.51
South CarolinaSEC0.003.8640.0050.41-0.000.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.003.86100.0049.100.00-0.07
MissouriSEC0.003.8366.6748.000.00-0.15
TennesseeSEC0.003.8350.0044.480.00-0.42
Texas A&MSEC0.002.3175.0070.390.000.94
AuburnSEC0.002.3166.6741.480.00-0.39
VanderbiltSEC0.002.28100.0051.600.000.07
KentuckySEC0.002.28100.0088.150.001.74
LSUSEC0.002.2875.0059.430.000.43
AlabamaSEC0.002.27100.0060.220.000.46
GeorgiaSEC0.002.2775.0056.680.000.30
FloridaSEC0.002.2766.6768.540.000.84
ClemsonACC0.001.7250.0050.680.000.02
Wake ForestACC16.671.7266.6744.075.56-0.20
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.001.7233.3343.57-0.00-0.22
Iowa St.B120.001.70100.0062.440.000.42
IonaMAAC2.081.7075.0075.611.040.87
Delaware St.MEAC16.671.6950.0045.810.00-0.14
DaytonA100.001.6975.0074.300.000.82
North TexasCUSA2.781.6766.6741.150.93-0.30
MilwaukeeHorz0.001.640.0034.65-0.00-0.50
Northwestern St.Slnd0.001.640.0055.57-0.000.18
Alabama St.SWAC16.671.610.0065.91-16.670.51
SMUAmer0.001.6150.0069.670.000.63
Utah ValleyWAC0.001.6166.6749.940.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.000.23100.0053.290.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.210.0037.29-0.00-0.05
Georgia TechACC0.000.19100.0052.480.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.180.0019.05-0.00-0.11
UMKCWAC0.000.1725.0044.56-0.00-0.02
Texas TechB120.000.1766.6746.580.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.000.1766.6750.120.000.00
BaylorB120.000.17100.0067.490.000.06
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.17100.0061.860.000.04
Florida St.ACC0.000.1725.0043.02-0.00-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.150.0043.51-0.00-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.150.0038.43-0.00-0.03
OklahomaB120.000.1466.6762.380.000.04
Saint LouisA100.000.1466.6757.190.000.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.120.0041.94-0.00-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.120.0033.26-0.00-0.04
OaklandHorz0.000.120.0033.64-0.00-0.04
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1275.0054.620.000.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1220.0034.58-0.00-0.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.120.0026.81-0.00-0.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1250.0039.080.00-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.000.110.0031.79-0.00-0.04
CharlotteCUSA0.000.1175.0065.560.000.04
MercerSC0.000.1133.3353.66-0.000.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.110.0049.00-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.000.11100.0075.510.000.06
ConnecticutAmer0.000.1175.0070.770.000.05
KansasB120.000.1150.0062.480.000.03
TulaneAmer2.080.1150.0035.380.00-0.03
TCUB120.000.11100.0054.380.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.090.0021.40-0.00-0.05
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.090.0035.17-0.00-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.090.0039.35-0.00-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.090.0066.50-0.000.03
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.09100.0031.430.00-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.000.090.0032.53-0.00-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.090.0033.03-0.00-0.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0940.0038.14-0.00-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0933.3348.37-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.000.090.0033.64-0.00-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0950.0064.030.000.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0950.0050.460.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.0975.0061.320.000.02
ArizonaP120.000.09100.0070.780.000.04
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0875.0070.900.000.04
VCUA100.000.08100.0074.410.000.04
MarshallCUSA0.000.0866.6752.830.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0850.0054.200.000.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.080.0026.20-0.00-0.04
LipscombASun0.000.080.0043.50-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0833.3346.72-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.080.0021.84-0.00-0.05
North FloridaASun0.000.080.0045.55-0.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0866.6752.020.000.00
TempleAmer0.000.0850.0053.140.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0866.6752.480.000.00
CreightonBE0.000.08100.0063.150.000.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0833.3343.32-0.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.000.08100.0071.890.000.04
Miami FLACC0.000.08100.0079.170.000.05
Notre DameACC0.000.0880.0073.060.000.04
TexasB120.000.08100.0081.510.000.05
UNC AshevilleBSth2.080.0833.3347.36-0.69-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.080.0065.55-0.000.03
OregonP120.000.08100.0069.430.000.03
TroySB0.000.080.0044.81-0.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0840.0038.78-0.00-0.02
DukeACC0.000.08100.0085.260.000.06
LouisvilleACC0.000.08100.0078.240.000.05
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0850.0054.510.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.08100.0071.350.000.03
VirginiaACC0.000.08100.0075.160.000.04
MassachusettsA100.000.0880.0061.870.000.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0032.38-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0620.0028.39-0.00-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.060.0025.81-0.00-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0625.0040.26-0.00-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.060.0032.23-0.00-0.02
DetroitHorz0.000.0633.3353.24-0.000.00
Green BayHorz0.000.060.0067.33-0.000.02
Wright St.Horz0.000.0666.6758.100.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0680.0071.590.000.03
South DakotaSum0.000.060.0036.09-0.00-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.060.0048.44-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0650.0063.440.000.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0620.0035.47-0.00-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0028.27-0.00-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.060.0037.26-0.00-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.000.060.0028.67-0.00-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.000.0650.0070.910.000.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0625.0066.60-0.000.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0650.0046.080.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.000.0625.0045.26-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0650.0034.180.00-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0666.6767.580.000.02
ButlerBE0.000.06100.0060.160.000.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0650.0051.920.000.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0633.3328.24-0.00-0.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0650.0045.730.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.06100.0070.060.000.02
UTSACUSA0.000.0650.0037.730.00-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.06100.0060.050.000.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.060.0051.68-0.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.060.0035.81-0.00-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0650.0046.140.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.06100.0064.500.000.02
Montana St.BSky0.000.060.0020.99-0.00-0.03
UABCUSA0.000.0633.3343.07-0.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0675.0070.240.000.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.060.0043.24-0.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.06100.0058.720.000.01
ColoradoP120.000.0666.6760.880.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0027.48-0.00-0.03
CornellIvy0.000.0633.3337.81-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0019.35-0.00-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.000.06100.0086.980.000.04
HamptonMEAC0.000.0625.0052.16-0.000.00
HoustonAmer0.000.06100.0065.000.000.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0620.0028.32-0.00-0.02
MemphisAmer0.000.060.0066.86-0.000.02
Oregon St.P120.000.06100.0048.750.00-0.00
PennIvy2.780.060.0025.85-2.78-0.03
RutgersB100.000.0666.6737.040.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0033.67-0.00-0.02
UCFAmer0.000.06100.0047.030.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.0666.6753.080.000.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0650.0061.440.000.01
YaleIvy0.000.0675.0069.430.000.02
ElonCAA0.000.0633.3341.23-0.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.06100.0065.770.000.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0633.3348.17-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0550.0063.170.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.05100.0058.810.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0550.0042.910.00-0.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0566.6751.770.000.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0575.0068.410.000.02
UCLAP120.000.05100.0065.190.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0566.6732.890.00-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0550.0055.730.000.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0540.0054.34-0.000.00
DuquesneA100.000.05100.0053.680.000.00
FordhamA100.000.050.0023.10-0.00-0.03
La SalleA100.000.05100.0054.720.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0525.0056.01-0.000.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0566.6753.120.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0533.3361.17-0.000.01
George MasonA100.000.0520.0021.84-0.00-0.03
RichmondA100.000.0566.6765.070.000.02
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0566.6756.220.000.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0540.0032.83-0.00-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0525.0051.96-0.000.00
MaristMAAC0.000.050.0034.85-0.00-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0533.3323.98-0.00-0.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0566.6765.840.000.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.050.0028.09-0.00-0.02
SienaMAAC0.000.0533.3360.02-0.000.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0566.6751.350.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.030.0028.04-0.00-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.03100.0062.400.000.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0024.68-0.00-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.03100.0051.850.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.030.0043.50-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0350.0063.270.000.01
UtahP120.000.0366.6769.560.000.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0333.3334.41-0.00-0.01
DePaulBE0.000.03100.0036.140.00-0.01
IUPUISum0.000.0350.0031.800.00-0.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0333.3351.73-0.000.00
WisconsinB100.000.03100.0085.040.000.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0366.6774.140.000.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0333.3326.52-0.00-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0350.0052.770.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0320.0053.22-0.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.0366.6748.260.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0340.0050.84-0.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0017.97-0.00-0.02
UC DavisBW0.000.03100.0043.690.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.000.03100.0043.590.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0333.3321.72-0.00-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0325.0038.29-0.00-0.01
CampbellBSth0.000.030.0031.49-0.00-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.030.0046.47-0.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.000.030.0020.55-0.00-0.02
DrakeMVC0.000.030.0024.98-0.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.030.0034.13-0.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.03100.0062.770.000.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.030.0058.69-0.000.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0375.0054.060.000.00
High PointBSth0.000.0375.0055.430.000.00
HowardMEAC0.000.030.0038.12-0.00-0.01
IndianaB100.000.03100.0062.410.000.01
IowaB100.000.0350.0065.830.000.01
MichiganB100.000.03100.0064.520.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.030.0040.51-0.00-0.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0333.3347.23-0.00-0.00
NJITind0.000.0325.0025.81-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.030.0069.20-0.000.01
PurdueB100.000.03100.0062.070.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0325.0043.58-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.000.03100.0063.690.000.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.030.0056.76-0.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.0333.3365.28-0.000.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0380.0059.220.000.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.030.0056.35-0.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.03100.0084.310.000.02
William & MaryCAA0.000.0366.6746.700.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.000.03100.0070.560.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.03100.0056.760.000.00
DavidsonA100.000.0350.0053.570.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0052.940.000.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0366.6776.480.000.01
HartfordAE0.000.0375.0040.710.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0366.6732.670.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0360.0056.390.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0350.0038.210.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.000.0325.0036.00-0.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0366.6760.490.000.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0366.6764.690.000.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0320.0036.50-0.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.03100.0072.270.000.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0366.6749.820.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.000.0366.6762.360.000.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0333.3338.76-0.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0325.0041.22-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.03100.0071.680.000.01
SamfordSC0.000.0340.0039.12-0.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0375.0056.830.000.00
WoffordSC0.000.0380.0077.570.000.01