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Through games of Mar 11, 2012.


Arkansas

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:110.0
Current RPI:110
Expected SOS:60
Current SOS:60
Current Record:18-14
Expected Record:18-14
Current Conf Record:6-11
Expected Conf Record:6-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-1
Current OOC Record:12-3
Expected OOC Record:12-3
Expected OOC RPI:62
Expected OOC SOS:167



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-14110.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Arkansas.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11South Carolina Upstate (140.0)ASunH83-63W100%0.0
11-16Oakland (139.0)SumH91-68W100%0.0
11-18Houston (221.0)CUSAN78-87L0%0.0
11-22Utah Valley (230.0)GWCH67-59W100%0.0
11-26Grambling (341.0)SWACH86-44W100%0.0
11-30Mississippi Valley St. (144.0)SWACH97-64W100%0.0
12-3Connecticut (32.0)BEA75-62L0%0.0
12-10Oklahoma (137.0)B12A78-63L0%0.0
12-17Southeastern Louisiana (318.0)SlndH62-55W100%0.0
12-20Eastern Kentucky (226.0)OVCH71-57W100%0.0
12-22Louisiana Tech (160.0)WACH77-63W100%0.0
12-28Charlotte (167.0)A10H80-67W100%0.0
12-30Texas Southern (234.0)SWACH77-49W100%0.0
1-3Savannah St. (191.0)MEACH83-66W100%0.0
1-7Mississippi St. (75.0)SECH98-88W100%0.0
1-11Mississippi (61.0)SECA71-63L0%0.0
1-14Louisiana St. (84.0)SECH69-60W100%0.0
1-17Kentucky (2.0)SECA86-63L0%0.0
1-21Michigan (14.0)B10H66-64W100%0.0
1-25Auburn (145.0)SECH56-53W100%0.0
1-28Alabama (36.0)SECA72-66L0%0.0
1-31Vanderbilt (18.0)SECH82-74W100%0.0
2-4Louisiana St. (84.0)SECA71-65L0%0.0
2-8Georgia (101.0)SECA81-59L0%0.0
2-11South Carolina (194.0)SECH76-65W100%0.0
2-15Tennessee (86.0)SECA77-58L0%0.0
2-18Florida (30.0)SECH68-98L0%0.0
2-23Alabama (36.0)SECH68-79L0%0.0
2-25Auburn (145.0)SECA71-77W100%0.0
2-28Mississippi (61.0)SECH75-77L0%0.0
3-3Mississippi St. (75.0)SECA79-59L0%0.0
3-8Louisiana St. (84.0)SECN70-54L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Arkansas's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Arkansas's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Arkansas.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ArkansasSEC26.1426.1450.0050.000.000.00
Louisiana St.SEC5.305.3055.1755.170.550.55
MississippiSEC3.863.8658.0658.060.620.62
AlabamaSEC3.783.7863.3363.331.011.01
Mississippi St.SEC3.763.7666.6766.671.251.25
AuburnSEC3.753.7551.7251.720.130.13
South CarolinaSEC2.202.2033.3333.33-0.73-0.73
KentuckySEC2.192.1993.9493.941.931.93
VanderbiltSEC2.172.1772.7372.730.990.99
FloridaSEC2.172.1768.7568.750.810.81
TennesseeSEC2.172.1753.3353.330.140.14
GeorgiaSEC2.142.1445.1645.16-0.21-0.21
GramblingSWAC1.861.8614.8114.81-1.31-1.31
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC1.791.7965.6265.620.560.56
OaklandSum1.741.7453.3353.330.120.12
HoustonCUSA1.741.7446.4346.43-0.12-0.12
Texas SouthernSWAC1.691.6946.8846.88-0.11-0.11
Utah ValleyGWC1.641.6459.2659.260.300.30
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd1.611.6136.0036.00-0.45-0.45
Eastern KentuckyOVC1.611.6148.2848.28-0.06-0.06
Louisiana TechWAC1.591.5951.6151.610.050.05
OklahomaB121.591.5946.6746.67-0.11-0.11
ConnecticutBE1.591.5959.3859.380.300.30
MichiganB101.591.5974.1974.190.770.77
South Carolina UpstateASun1.591.5962.0762.070.380.38
CharlotteA101.561.5644.8344.83-0.16-0.16
Savannah St.MEAC1.561.5665.5265.520.480.48
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.250.2533.3333.33-0.08-0.08
Alabama A&MSWAC0.250.2519.2319.23-0.15-0.15
North FloridaASun0.200.2048.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.200.2020.0020.00-0.12-0.12
Nicholls St.Slnd0.180.1828.5728.57-0.08-0.08
SouthernSWAC0.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.180.1810.7110.71-0.14-0.14
Alcorn St.SWAC0.170.1725.0025.00-0.09-0.09
Georgia TechACC0.170.1735.4835.48-0.05-0.05
NorthwesternB100.170.1758.0658.060.030.03
MarquetteBE0.170.1778.1278.120.090.09
Northwestern St.Slnd0.160.1644.8344.83-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.150.1526.6726.67-0.07-0.07
Alabama St.SWAC0.150.1534.4834.48-0.05-0.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.150.1537.9337.93-0.04-0.04
North TexasSB0.150.1551.7251.720.010.01
Utah St.WAC0.150.1551.6151.610.000.00
DaytonA100.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
Ohio St.B100.150.1579.4179.410.090.09
Texas A&MB120.150.1541.9441.94-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.130.1348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Texas El PasoCUSA0.130.1346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.130.136.676.67-0.11-0.11
MemphisCUSA0.130.1376.4776.470.070.07
Southern MethodistCUSA0.130.1336.6736.67-0.03-0.03
BaylorB120.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
South AlabamaSB0.120.1257.1457.140.020.02
RutgersBE0.120.1243.7543.75-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.120.1237.5037.50-0.03-0.03
DePaulBE0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Texas St.Slnd0.110.1134.6234.62-0.03-0.03
LamarSlnd0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
Texas TechB120.110.1125.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.106.906.90-0.09-0.09
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.100.1046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
Western KentuckySB0.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.100.1010.3410.34-0.08-0.08
Texas ChristianMWC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.100.1027.5927.59-0.05-0.05
StetsonASun0.100.1028.5728.57-0.04-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.1038.4638.46-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
XavierA100.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
HawaiiWAC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
Oklahoma St.B120.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Southern MississippiCUSA0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
GeorgetownBE0.100.1073.3373.330.050.05
Iowa St.B120.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
IndianaB100.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
Florida St.ACC0.100.1072.7372.730.040.04
Seton HallBE0.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
ArizonaP120.100.1067.6567.650.030.03
DetroitHorz0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
PurdueB100.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
VirginiaACC0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
West VirginiaBE0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Notre DameBE0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
SyracuseBE0.090.0993.9493.940.080.08
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.0823.0823.08-0.05-0.05
TulsaCUSA0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
North DakotaGWC0.080.0848.1548.15-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
HamptonMEAC0.080.0836.3636.36-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
MercerASun0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Georgia SouthernSC0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.080.0829.6329.63-0.03-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
Southern UtahSum0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
NC AshevilleBSth0.070.0770.0070.000.030.03
St. LouisA100.070.0777.4277.420.040.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
WisconsinB100.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
IUPUISum0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
South FloridaBE0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Miami FLACC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
KansasB120.070.0781.8281.820.050.05
CincinnatiBE0.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
Boise St.MWC0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.070.0757.6957.690.010.01
NevadaWAC0.070.0780.0080.000.040.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
UC IrvineBW0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
North CarolinaACC0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
Middle TennesseeSB0.070.0780.0080.000.040.04
LouisvilleBE0.070.0774.2974.290.030.03
Texas San AntonioSlnd0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Chicago St.GWC0.060.0610.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Houston BaptistGWC0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Seattleind0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Texas ArlingtonSlnd0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
RiceCUSA0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
TulaneCUSA0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaCUSA0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
BelmontASun0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
RichmondA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0532.0032.00-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
MaineAE0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Central FloridaCUSA0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
UABCUSA0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
WinthropBSth0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
MissouriB120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
South DakotaSum0.050.0528.0028.00-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Southern CaliforniaP120.050.0518.7518.75-0.03-0.03
WoffordSC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
DavidsonSC0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
Longwoodind0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
RadfordBSth0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
PittsburghBE0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Florida AtlanticSB0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Fresno St.WAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
IdahoWAC0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
IllinoisB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
MarylandACC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
MinnesotaB100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
San Jose St.WAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0583.8783.870.030.03
ColoradoP120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Georgia St.CAA0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
MontanaBSky0.030.0379.3179.310.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
ButlerHorz0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
FordhamA100.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
LehighPat0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0396.4396.430.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
TempleA100.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
College of CharlestonSC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
ElonSC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
NC GreensboroSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0339.3939.39-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
BradleyMVC0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
FurmanSC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
NebraskaB100.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.020.023.123.12-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
DenverSB0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
HarvardIvy0.020.0286.2186.210.020.02
Holy CrossPat0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
RiderMAAC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
WagnerNEC0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
YaleIvy0.020.0265.3865.380.010.01
BucknellPat0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
LafayettePat0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDMAAC0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
MaristMAAC0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
MonmouthNEC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.020.0264.7164.710.010.01
Old DominionCAA0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
OregonP120.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Oregon St.P120.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
PortlandWCC0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01