live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Nov 26, 2014.


Arkansas

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:23.2
Current RPI:57
Expected SOS:77
Current SOS:193
Current Record:4-0
Expected Record:25-6
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:10-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:4-0
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:12
Expected OOC SOS:71



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
30-13.90.25%
29-24.91.59%
28-36.94.98%
27-49.711.62%
26-513.617.33%
25-618.720.42%
24-725.018.13%
23-833.612.44%
22-943.47.70%
21-1055.43.62%
20-1167.91.34%
19-1281.20.40%
18-1397.50.12%
17-14112.50.04%
16-15125.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Arkansas.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Alabama St. (222.8)SWACH97-79W100%0.0
11-19Wake Forest (92.9)ACCH83-53W100%0.0
11-21Delaware St. (276.9)MEACH99-71W100%0.0
11-25SMU (45.7)AmerA72-78W100%0.0
11-28North Texas (223.0)CUSAH0-097%22.8
11-30Iona (44.8)MAACH0-076%8.4
12-4Iowa St. (52.5)B12A0-049%-0.4
12-7Clemson (126.8)ACCA0-064%4.4
12-13Dayton (56.0)A10H0-077%8.8
12-20Southeast Missouri St. (259.6)OVCH0-097%22.8
12-22Milwaukee (258.0)HorzH0-097%21.9
12-28Northwestern St. (203.6)SlndH0-096%21.4
1-3Utah Valley (212.7)WACH0-097%22.7
1-6Georgia (76.4)SECA0-059%2.8
1-10Vanderbilt (124.1)SECH0-086%13.2
1-13Tennessee (153.1)SECA0-075%8.1
1-17Mississippi (101.9)SECH0-084%12.2
1-22Alabama (69.6)SECH0-080%10.1
1-24Missouri (159.3)SECA0-078%9.2
1-27Tennessee (153.1)SECH0-090%15.3
1-31Florida (40.2)SECA0-043%-2.2
2-3South Carolina (92.0)SECH0-080%10.2
2-7Mississippi St. (194.9)SECH0-093%18.1
2-10Auburn (179.6)SECA0-082%11.2
2-14Mississippi (101.9)SECA0-066%5.0
2-18Missouri (159.3)SECH0-091%16.4
2-21Mississippi St. (194.9)SECA0-082%10.9
2-24Texas A&M (50.9)SECH0-072%7.1
2-28Kentucky (3.5)SECA0-017%-11.6
3-5South Carolina (92.0)SECA0-060%3.0
3-7LSU (94.1)SECH0-083%11.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Arkansas's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Arkansas's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Arkansas.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ArkansasSEC31.7726.14100.0079.6231.7715.48
MississippiSEC0.003.8675.0054.930.000.38
Mississippi St.SEC0.003.86100.0048.040.00-0.15
South CarolinaSEC0.003.8550.0053.130.000.24
MissouriSEC0.003.8340.0037.91-0.00-0.93
TennesseeSEC0.003.8350.0046.160.00-0.29
LSUSEC0.002.3060.0057.290.000.34
Texas A&MSEC0.002.3075.0069.650.000.90
AuburnSEC0.002.3060.0038.240.00-0.54
VanderbiltSEC0.002.27100.0055.240.000.24
KentuckySEC0.002.27100.0089.260.001.78
AlabamaSEC0.002.2780.0059.760.000.44
GeorgiaSEC0.002.2760.0057.540.000.34
FloridaSEC0.002.2650.0065.190.000.69
ClemsonACC0.001.7560.0051.290.000.05
Wake ForestACC12.501.7280.0053.327.500.11
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.001.7225.0045.77-0.00-0.15
IonaMAAC2.601.7080.0081.221.561.06
Iowa St.B120.001.7075.0062.860.000.44
Delaware St.MEAC12.501.6933.3341.09-4.17-0.30
DaytonA100.001.6975.0072.800.000.77
North TexasCUSA1.561.6775.0040.150.78-0.33
MilwaukeeHorz0.001.6420.0035.40-0.00-0.48
Northwestern St.Slnd0.001.640.0050.51-0.000.02
Alabama St.SWAC12.501.610.0065.61-12.500.50
SMUAmer12.501.6160.0067.642.500.57
Utah ValleyWAC0.001.6175.0052.890.000.09
Oklahoma St.B120.000.22100.0061.400.000.05
Texas SouthernSWAC1.040.200.0040.80-1.04-0.04
Georgia TechACC0.000.19100.0049.260.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.180.0015.65-0.00-0.12
UMKCWAC0.000.1720.0042.29-0.00-0.03
Texas TechB120.000.1775.0045.520.00-0.02
Kansas St.B120.000.1750.0046.630.00-0.01
BaylorB120.000.16100.0070.110.000.07
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.16100.0065.430.000.05
Florida St.ACC0.000.1640.0038.71-0.00-0.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.150.0046.27-0.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.150.0035.41-0.00-0.04
OklahomaB120.000.1475.0064.910.000.04
Saint LouisA100.000.1475.0046.370.00-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.120.0032.51-0.00-0.04
Nicholls St.Slnd1.040.120.0031.85-1.04-0.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.120.0025.37-0.00-0.06
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1150.0036.120.00-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.000.110.0030.92-0.00-0.04
CharlotteCUSA0.000.1160.0067.390.000.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1120.0031.23-0.00-0.04
MercerSC0.000.1133.3354.15-0.000.01
OaklandHorz0.000.1116.6726.44-0.00-0.05
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1175.0055.290.000.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.1140.0048.44-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.1175.0069.010.000.04
TulaneAmer1.040.1166.6739.850.35-0.02
KansasB120.000.1166.6759.280.000.02
TCUB120.000.11100.0061.120.000.02
XavierBE0.000.11100.0077.810.000.06
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.090.0022.25-0.00-0.05
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0920.0034.64-0.00-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.090.0042.16-0.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.090.0068.13-0.000.03
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0950.0032.470.00-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.000.090.0036.91-0.00-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.090.0034.53-0.00-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0925.0051.72-0.000.00
LamarSlnd1.040.0925.0036.41-0.52-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0940.0046.02-0.00-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0960.0055.090.000.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0950.0065.310.000.03
VCUA100.000.0880.0073.080.000.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0850.0040.550.00-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0850.0044.930.00-0.01
ArizonaP120.000.08100.0075.690.000.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0825.0049.12-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0880.0074.520.000.04
JacksonvilleASun0.000.080.0025.58-0.00-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0825.0048.11-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.080.0027.68-0.00-0.04
TempleAmer0.000.0860.0050.320.000.00
CreightonBE0.000.08100.0060.970.000.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0840.0038.45-0.00-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0825.0041.79-0.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0840.0052.52-0.000.00
Oregon St.P120.000.0850.0042.760.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0875.0055.330.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0860.0055.460.000.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0866.6750.870.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth1.040.0825.0052.61-0.520.00
LipscombASun0.000.080.0045.69-0.00-0.01
OregonP120.000.0860.0063.060.000.02
PurdueB100.000.0883.3368.600.000.03
TroySB0.000.080.0043.61-0.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.08100.0079.800.000.05
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0850.0073.640.000.04
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0850.0052.150.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0840.0038.08-0.00-0.02
Notre DameACC0.000.0883.3369.220.000.03
TexasB120.000.08100.0080.270.000.05
West VirginiaB120.000.08100.0069.720.000.03
DukeACC0.000.08100.0083.600.000.05
LouisvilleACC0.000.08100.0079.150.000.05
MassachusettsA100.000.0883.3366.600.000.03
North CarolinaACC0.000.0875.0067.420.000.03
VirginiaACC0.000.08100.0073.600.000.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0033.69-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0616.6731.72-0.00-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.060.0020.69-0.00-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0620.0043.55-0.00-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0625.0031.71-0.00-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0680.0071.830.000.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0633.3357.92-0.000.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0620.0038.42-0.00-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0018.95-0.00-0.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.060.0036.09-0.00-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.000.060.0024.87-0.00-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.000.0633.3367.86-0.000.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0650.0071.940.000.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0650.0045.290.00-0.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0625.0044.95-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0666.6741.320.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.060.0038.82-0.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky1.040.0680.0074.900.620.03
ButlerBE0.000.06100.0071.480.000.02
DetroitHorz0.000.0660.0058.400.000.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0666.6758.830.000.01
Green BayHorz0.000.0675.0077.520.000.03
RiceCUSA0.000.0633.3330.44-0.00-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0633.3339.69-0.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.06100.0072.490.000.03
UTSACUSA0.000.0633.3329.25-0.00-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.000.0666.6756.860.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.06100.0061.670.000.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.060.0038.94-0.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.06100.0057.480.000.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.060.0020.63-0.00-0.03
Weber St.BSky0.000.0625.0052.85-0.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0666.6749.610.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.000.0660.0066.190.000.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.060.0034.83-0.00-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.06100.0061.080.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0027.64-0.00-0.02
CornellIvy0.000.0642.8640.94-0.00-0.01
GonzagaWCC1.040.06100.0088.521.040.04
HamptonMEAC0.000.0616.6745.77-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0666.6760.360.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0614.2931.08-0.00-0.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0650.0068.710.000.02
PennIvy1.560.060.0023.29-1.56-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0035.63-0.00-0.02
UCFAmer0.000.0666.6740.010.00-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0666.6751.210.000.00
YaleIvy0.000.0680.0070.280.000.02
UABCUSA0.000.0525.0040.45-0.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.000.0575.0060.100.000.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.050.0018.42-0.00-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.000.05100.0060.350.000.01
RutgersB100.000.0550.0024.520.00-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0540.0033.60-0.00-0.02
Arizona St.P120.000.0560.0053.110.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0566.6753.550.000.00
DuquesneA100.000.05100.0054.340.000.00
ElonCAA0.000.0540.0039.53-0.00-0.01
FordhamA100.000.050.0026.01-0.00-0.03
IllinoisB100.000.05100.0065.110.000.02
La SalleA100.000.05100.0056.620.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0520.0050.03-0.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0575.0052.090.000.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0533.3353.30-0.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0525.0053.31-0.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0540.0053.46-0.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0540.0057.50-0.000.01
George MasonA100.000.0520.0021.73-0.00-0.03
PittsburghACC0.000.0560.0057.880.000.01
RichmondA100.000.0550.0064.050.000.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0580.0068.140.000.02
UCLAP120.000.0580.0063.410.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0560.0036.000.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0550.0052.730.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0525.0048.57-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.000.0520.0033.15-0.00-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0533.3330.18-0.00-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0550.0055.700.000.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0550.0046.840.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.000.0533.3361.50-0.000.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0540.0032.41-0.00-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0520.0041.72-0.00-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.030.0030.94-0.00-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0375.0068.330.000.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0024.09-0.00-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.03100.0052.660.000.00
North DakotaBSky3.120.0333.3351.34-1.040.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0333.3350.63-0.000.00
UtahP120.000.0375.0073.450.000.02
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0325.0026.31-0.00-0.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0380.0076.610.000.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0350.0025.330.00-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0350.0049.570.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0333.3359.02-0.000.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0375.0049.940.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0340.0047.86-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0016.41-0.00-0.02
UC DavisBW0.000.03100.0053.380.000.00
DePaulBE0.000.0366.6726.420.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0350.0042.970.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.000.0340.0030.81-0.00-0.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0333.3351.01-0.000.00
WisconsinB100.000.03100.0086.460.000.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0320.0031.47-0.00-0.01
CampbellBSth0.000.030.0034.56-0.00-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0325.0047.86-0.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.000.030.0019.74-0.00-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0325.0035.38-0.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.03100.0061.350.000.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0371.4357.180.000.00
HowardMEAC0.000.0325.0045.71-0.00-0.00
IndianaB101.040.0380.0057.110.620.00
MichiganB100.000.0375.0066.610.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0316.6739.87-0.00-0.01
NJITind0.000.0320.0029.79-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.030.0066.35-0.000.01
Seton HallBE0.000.03100.0064.150.000.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.030.0051.96-0.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.0350.0065.760.000.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.030.0056.00-0.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0375.0056.120.000.00
WyomingMWC0.000.03100.0069.580.000.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0350.0027.510.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0366.6761.870.000.01
DrakeMVC0.000.0325.0024.98-0.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0052.420.000.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0375.0069.280.000.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0360.0067.690.000.01
HartfordAE0.000.0380.0051.800.000.00
High PointBSth0.000.0375.0055.980.000.00
IowaB100.000.0366.6765.830.000.01
MarylandB100.000.03100.0071.860.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0340.0026.51-0.00-0.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0325.0043.39-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0360.0055.640.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0320.0038.27-0.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0360.0039.490.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0380.0057.990.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.03100.0084.900.000.02
BucknellPat0.000.0333.3335.82-0.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0375.0064.180.000.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0375.0064.980.000.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0320.0036.68-0.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0380.0071.650.000.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0375.0043.690.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.000.0350.0055.290.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC1.040.0325.0036.66-0.52-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0325.0037.52-0.00-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.03100.0066.690.000.01
SamfordSC0.000.0333.3335.00-0.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0360.0051.520.000.00
WoffordSC0.000.0380.0077.430.000.01