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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Arkansas

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:77.0
Current RPI:77
Expected SOS:96
Current SOS:96
Current Record:21-11
Expected Record:21-11
Current Conf Record:10-9
Expected Conf Record:10-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:65
Expected OOC SOS:205



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-1177.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Arkansas.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8SIU Edwardsville (320.0)OVCH99-65W100%0.0
11-15Louisiana Lafayette (90.0)SBH76-63W100%0.0
11-18SMU (53.0)AmerH89-78W100%0.0
11-25California (63.0)P12N85-77L0%0.0
11-26Minnesota (50.0)B10N73-87W100%0.0
11-27Gonzaga (20.0)WCCN91-81L0%0.0
12-3Southeastern Louisiana (318.0)SlndH111-65W100%0.0
12-7Clemson (79.0)ACCH74-68W100%0.0
12-12Savannah St. (273.0)MEACH72-43W100%0.0
12-19Tennessee Martin (332.0)OVCH102-56W100%0.0
12-21South Alabama (280.0)SBH72-60W100%0.0
12-28High Point (172.0)BSthH89-48W100%0.0
1-4UTSA (306.0)CUSAH104-71W100%0.0
1-8Texas A&M (148.0)SECA69-53L0%0.0
1-11Florida (1.0)SECH82-84L0%0.0
1-14Kentucky (17.0)SECH87-85W100%0.0
1-18Georgia (74.0)SECA66-61L0%0.0
1-22Tennessee (42.0)SECA81-74L0%0.0
1-25Auburn (169.0)SECH86-67W100%0.0
1-28Missouri (49.0)SECH71-75L0%0.0
2-1LSU (83.0)SECA88-74L0%0.0
2-5Alabama (124.0)SECH65-58W100%0.0
2-8Vanderbilt (120.0)SECA75-77W100%0.0
2-13Missouri (49.0)SECA86-85L0%0.0
2-15LSU (83.0)SECH81-70W100%0.0
2-19South Carolina (140.0)SECH71-64W100%0.0
2-22Mississippi St. (245.0)SECA69-73W100%0.0
2-27Kentucky (17.0)SECA67-71W100%0.0
3-1Georgia (74.0)SECH87-75W100%0.0
3-5Mississippi (94.0)SECH110-80W100%0.0
3-8Alabama (124.0)SECA83-58L0%0.0
3-13South Carolina (140.0)SECN69-71L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Arkansas's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Arkansas's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Arkansas.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ArkansasSEC26.0926.0962.1062.106.316.31
LSUSEC3.803.8060.0060.000.760.76
KentuckySEC3.783.7875.0075.001.891.89
GeorgiaSEC3.773.7760.0060.000.750.75
MissouriSEC3.763.7664.5264.521.091.09
South CarolinaSEC3.763.7640.6240.62-0.70-0.70
AlabamaSEC3.703.7037.9337.93-0.89-0.89
FloridaSEC2.332.3393.9493.942.052.05
MississippiSEC2.262.2659.3859.380.420.42
Mississippi St.SEC2.242.2443.7543.75-0.28-0.28
Texas A&MSEC2.242.2451.6151.610.070.07
AuburnSEC2.232.2348.2848.28-0.08-0.08
TennesseeSEC2.212.2161.2961.290.500.50
VanderbiltSEC2.192.1950.0050.000.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd1.711.7132.0032.00-0.62-0.62
Tennessee MartinOVC1.651.6521.4321.43-0.94-0.94
South AlabamaSB1.641.6429.6329.63-0.67-0.67
ClemsonACC1.631.6364.5264.520.470.47
Louisiana LafayetteSB1.621.6266.6766.670.540.54
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC1.621.6232.1432.14-0.58-0.58
GonzagaWCC1.591.5981.2581.250.990.99
SMUAmer1.591.5974.1974.190.770.77
Savannah St.MEAC1.591.5937.9337.93-0.38-0.38
CaliforniaP121.561.5658.0658.060.250.25
High PointBSth1.561.5651.8551.850.060.06
MinnesotaB101.561.5661.2961.290.350.35
UTSACUSA1.561.5623.0823.08-0.84-0.84
Georgia St.SB0.240.2474.1974.190.110.11
McNeese St.Slnd0.180.1825.9325.93-0.09-0.09
Louisiana MonroeSB0.180.1834.6234.62-0.05-0.05
UT ArlingtonSB0.180.1843.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.170.1748.4848.48-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckySB0.160.1661.2961.290.040.04
HoustonAmer0.150.1551.5251.520.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.150.1525.0025.00-0.07-0.07
UCLAP120.150.1576.4776.470.080.08
Nicholls St.Slnd0.150.1546.1546.15-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.140.1470.9770.970.060.06
BaylorB120.140.1466.6766.670.050.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.140.1453.3353.330.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.130.1359.2659.260.020.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.130.1325.8125.81-0.06-0.06
New OrleansSlnd0.130.1336.3636.36-0.04-0.04
Arkansas St.SB0.130.1356.6756.670.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.130.1335.7135.71-0.04-0.04
Texas St.SB0.130.1320.6920.69-0.08-0.08
Northwestern St.Slnd0.130.1348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
TroySB0.130.1331.0331.03-0.05-0.05
Arkansas Little RockSB0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.130.1358.6258.620.020.02
Texas TechB120.130.1343.7543.75-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.130.1360.0060.000.030.03
North FloridaASun0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.120.1267.6567.650.040.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.120.1237.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.120.1261.7661.760.030.03
TempleAmer0.120.1229.0329.03-0.05-0.05
LouisvilleAmer0.120.1285.2985.290.080.08
Saint Mary'sWCC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
RiceCUSA0.110.1117.8617.86-0.07-0.07
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.110.1168.9768.970.040.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.100.1013.7913.79-0.08-0.08
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.100.1014.2914.29-0.07-0.07
SyracuseACC0.100.1084.3884.380.070.07
LipscombASun0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
BelmontOVC0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
DukeACC0.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
XavierBE0.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
IllinoisB100.100.1057.5857.580.010.01
Penn St.B100.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
North Carolina St.ACC0.100.1061.7661.760.020.02
NorthwesternB100.100.1042.4242.42-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.090.0963.6463.640.030.03
Boise St.MWC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
LamarSlnd0.090.0910.7110.71-0.07-0.07
North TexasCUSA0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0853.5753.570.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
VMIBSth0.080.0855.5655.560.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
UABCUSA0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
FIUCUSA0.070.0746.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.070.0773.5373.530.040.04
OklahomaB120.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Wichita St.MVC0.070.07100.00100.000.070.07
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
ButlerBE0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
DavidsonSC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
MassachusettsA100.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
NebraskaB100.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.070.0782.3582.350.050.05
Wake ForestACC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Washington St.P120.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
DaytonA100.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.0720.6920.69-0.04-0.04
NevadaMWC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.070.0767.6567.650.030.03
BYUWCC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Michigan St.B100.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
North CarolinaACC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
USC UpstateASun0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0614.8114.81-0.04-0.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0693.1093.100.050.05
East CarolinaCUSA0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0624.0024.00-0.03-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0680.6580.650.030.03
CampbellBSth0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
RadfordBSth0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
WinthropBSth0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Saint LouisA100.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0583.8783.870.040.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Oregon St.P120.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
WyomingMWC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
UNLVMWC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Miami FLACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
UtahP120.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
DrexelCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Appalachian St.SC0.050.0519.2319.23-0.03-0.03
ArizonaP120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
Arizona St.P120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
FurmanSC0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
IowaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
MichiganB100.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Ohio St.B100.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
PurdueB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
RutgersAmer0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
StanfordP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
USCP120.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
WashingtonP120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
OregonP120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
TCUB120.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
IUPUISum0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
Kansas St.B120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Oral RobertsSlnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
TulaneCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
TulsaCUSA0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
SamfordSC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
Iowa St.B120.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.020.0264.2964.290.010.01
CreightonBE0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
DenverSum0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
HofstraCAA0.020.0230.3030.30-0.01-0.01
UICHorz0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
LehighPat0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
MarylandACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
MontanaBSky0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0248.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.020.023.573.57-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
MercerASun0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00