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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.


Arkansas

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:89.0
Current RPI:89
Expected SOS:88
Current SOS:88
Current Record:19-13
Expected Record:19-13
Current Conf Record:10-9
Expected Conf Record:10-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-1
Current OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:115
Expected OOC SOS:132



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1389.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Arkansas.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Sam Houston St. (224.0)SlndH73-68W100%0.0
11-18Longwood (332.0)BSthH112-63W100%0.0
11-20Florida A&M (331.0)MEACH89-60W100%0.0
11-23Arizona St. (90.0)P12N83-68L0%0.0
11-24Wisconsin (32.0)B10N77-70L0%0.0
11-30Syracuse (14.0)BEH82-91L0%0.0
12-4Oklahoma (39.0)B12H81-78W100%0.0
12-8Michigan (20.0)B10A80-67L0%0.0
12-15Alcorn St. (311.0)SWACH97-59W100%0.0
12-20Robert Morris (132.0)NECH79-74W100%0.0
12-22Alabama A&M (329.0)SWACH95-68W100%0.0
12-29Northwestern St. (78.0)SlndH79-61W100%0.0
1-5Delaware St. (263.0)MEACH86-51W100%0.0
1-9Texas A&M (102.0)SECA69-51L0%0.0
1-12Vanderbilt (120.0)SECH56-33W100%0.0
1-16Auburn (252.0)SECH88-80W100%0.0
1-19Mississippi (47.0)SECA76-64L0%0.0
1-23Mississippi St. (232.0)SECH96-70W100%0.0
1-26South Carolina (222.0)SECA75-54L0%0.0
1-31Alabama (60.0)SECA59-56L0%0.0
2-2Tennessee (59.0)SECH73-60W100%0.0
2-5Florida (7.0)SECH80-69W100%0.0
2-9Vanderbilt (120.0)SECA67-49L0%0.0
2-13Auburn (252.0)SECA75-83W100%0.0
2-16Missouri (36.0)SECH73-71W100%0.0
2-21Georgia (140.0)SECH62-60W100%0.0
2-23Florida (7.0)SECA71-54L0%0.0
2-27Louisiana St. (86.0)SECA65-60L0%0.0
3-2Kentucky (56.0)SECH73-60W100%0.0
3-5Missouri (36.0)SECA93-63L0%0.0
3-9Texas A&M (102.0)SECH73-62W100%0.0
3-14Vanderbilt (120.0)SECA75-72L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Arkansas's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Arkansas's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Arkansas.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ArkansasSEC26.1126.1156.4856.483.393.39
VanderbiltSEC5.275.2746.6746.67-0.35-0.35
Texas A&MSEC3.783.7854.8454.840.370.37
FloridaSEC3.753.7580.6580.652.302.30
MissouriSEC3.753.7570.9770.971.571.57
AuburnSEC3.723.7230.0030.00-1.49-1.49
MississippiSEC2.352.3575.7675.761.211.21
KentuckySEC2.302.3067.7467.740.820.82
Louisiana St.SEC2.262.2660.0060.000.450.45
Mississippi St.SEC2.242.2432.2632.26-0.79-0.79
GeorgiaSEC2.212.2148.3948.39-0.07-0.07
AlabamaSEC2.212.2161.2961.290.500.50
South CarolinaSEC2.212.2141.9441.94-0.36-0.36
TennesseeSEC2.212.2164.5264.520.640.64
Northwestern St.Slnd1.741.7473.0873.080.800.80
Alcorn St.SWAC1.711.7129.0329.03-0.72-0.72
Alabama A&MSWAC1.711.7132.1432.14-0.61-0.61
Florida A&MMEAC1.661.6621.4321.43-0.95-0.95
WisconsinB101.661.6666.6766.670.550.55
Sam Houston St.Slnd1.651.6546.6746.67-0.11-0.11
OklahomaB121.641.6466.6766.670.550.55
MichiganB101.611.6177.4277.420.880.88
Arizona St.P121.591.5962.5062.500.400.40
Delaware St.MEAC1.591.5943.3343.33-0.21-0.21
LongwoodBSth1.591.5920.0020.00-0.95-0.95
SyracuseBE1.591.5973.5373.530.750.75
Robert MorrisNEC1.561.5671.8871.880.680.68
Nicholls St.Slnd0.230.2330.0030.00-0.09-0.09
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.210.2185.1985.190.150.15
IllinoisB100.190.1963.6463.640.050.05
Central ArkansasSlnd0.180.1839.2939.29-0.04-0.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.180.1817.8617.86-0.12-0.12
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.180.1837.9337.93-0.04-0.04
GramblingSWAC0.180.180.000.00-0.18-0.18
SouthernSWAC0.180.1868.9768.970.070.07
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.170.1738.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Oral RobertsSlnd0.160.1654.8454.840.020.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.160.1639.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.150.1517.8617.86-0.10-0.10
South Carolina St.MEAC0.150.1514.2914.29-0.11-0.11
Alabama St.SWAC0.150.1529.0329.03-0.06-0.06
IndianaB100.140.1481.8281.820.090.09
Penn St.B100.140.1432.2632.26-0.05-0.05
CornellIvy0.140.1440.0040.00-0.03-0.03
UCLAP120.140.1473.5373.530.070.07
MarquetteBE0.140.1474.1974.190.070.07
Middle TennesseeSB0.140.1484.8584.850.100.10
VillanovaBE0.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
LouisvilleBE0.140.1485.2985.290.100.10
LamarSlnd0.130.139.689.68-0.11-0.11
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.130.1352.9452.940.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.130.1335.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.120.1217.2417.24-0.08-0.08
Kansas St.B120.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
StanfordP120.120.1256.2556.250.010.01
XavierA100.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
Ohio St.B100.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
GeorgetownBE0.120.1280.6580.650.070.07
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.100.1037.5037.50-0.03-0.03
CampbellBSth0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
HowardMEAC0.100.1020.6920.69-0.06-0.06
Iowa St.B120.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
TexasB120.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
West VirginiaB120.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.100.1022.5822.58-0.05-0.05
Houston BaptistGWC0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.100.1032.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Virginia CommonwealthA100.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
Texas El PasoCUSA0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
Seton HallBE0.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.090.0934.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Michigan St.B100.090.0975.0075.000.050.05
ArizonaP120.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
OregonP120.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
Washington St.P120.090.0940.6240.62-0.02-0.02
PittsburghBE0.090.0975.0075.000.050.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0867.8667.860.030.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.087.147.14-0.07-0.07
Louisiana TechWAC0.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
MercerASun0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
LibertyBSth0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Virginia Military InstBSth0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
NC AshevilleBSth0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
Central FloridaCUSA0.070.0762.0762.070.020.02
HoustonCUSA0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
WinthropBSth0.070.0739.2939.29-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
CreightonMVC0.070.0779.4179.410.040.04
PurdueB100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SC0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Southern CaliforniaP120.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.070.0736.3636.36-0.02-0.02
WagnerNEC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
ButlerA100.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
DavidsonSC0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
MaristMAAC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
William & MaryCAA0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
MinnesotaB100.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
NebraskaB100.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MonmouthNEC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0557.6957.690.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
High PointBSth0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
KansasB120.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
RadfordBSth0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Texas ChristianB120.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
MarylandACC0.050.0564.7164.710.010.01
Southern MississippiCUSA0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonSC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
FurmanSC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
OaklandSum0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0542.3142.31-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Long IslandNEC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
East Tennessee St.ASun0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
ArmyPat0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
BryantNEC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
BucknellPat0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
ColoradoP120.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
QuinnipiacNEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0528.0028.00-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
St. LouisA100.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
UtahP120.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
YaleIvy0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
DetroitHorz0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Notre DameBE0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
South FloridaBE0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
TempleA100.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
CaliforniaP120.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
FordhamA100.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
RutgersBE0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Florida InternationalSB0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
North FloridaASun0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0393.7593.750.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
NavyPat0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Texas ArlingtonWAC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.020.026.906.90-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
ElonSC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
Florida AtlanticSB0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
George WashingtonA100.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
IonaMAAC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
IUPUISum0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.020.0210.0010.00-0.02-0.02
LafayettePat0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
MemphisCUSA0.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
New Orleansind0.020.0218.1818.18-0.02-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
PortlandWCC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Southern MethodistCUSA0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Texas San AntonioWAC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
TulaneCUSA0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
LehighPat0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.020.0244.4444.44-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
ColgatePat0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutBE0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.020.0259.2659.260.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01