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Through games of Feb 7, 2016.


Arkansas

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:88.5
Current RPI:91
Expected SOS:52
Current SOS:28
Current Record:12-11
Expected Record:17-14
Current Conf Record:5-5
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:134
Expected OOC SOS:31



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-1153.63.32%
19-1265.414.73%
18-1377.728.62%
17-1491.928.26%
16-15108.317.11%
15-16126.06.47%
14-17144.41.29%
13-18159.50.19%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Arkansas.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Southern (173.1)SWACH86-68W100%0.0
11-18Akron (35.0)MACH80-88L0%0.0
11-20Charleston Southern (274.8)BSthH93-75W100%0.0
11-26Georgia Tech (88.1)ACCN83-73L0%0.0
11-27Stanford (85.9)P12N69-66L0%0.0
12-1Northwestern St. (332.5)SlndH117-78W100%0.0
12-4Wake Forest (126.6)ACCA88-85L0%0.0
12-8Evansville (74.1)MVCH89-76W100%0.0
12-12Tennessee Tech (100.2)OVCH83-57W100%0.0
12-19Mercer (120.4)SCH66-69L0%0.0
12-22North Florida (137.4)ASunH97-72W100%0.0
12-30Dayton (13.3)A10A85-81L0%0.0
1-2Texas A&M (21.6)SECA92-69L0%0.0
1-5Vanderbilt (53.3)SECH90-85W100%0.0
1-9Mississippi St. (177.2)SECH82-68W100%0.0
1-12Missouri (218.4)SECA61-94W100%0.0
1-16LSU (82.0)SECA76-74L0%0.0
1-21Kentucky (20.0)SECH66-80L0%0.0
1-23Georgia (78.3)SECA76-73L0%0.0
1-27Texas A&M (21.6)SECH74-71W100%0.0
1-30Texas Tech (65.9)B12H75-68W100%0.0
2-3Florida (23.8)SECA87-83L0%0.0
2-6Tennessee (119.1)SECH85-67W100%0.0
2-9Mississippi St. (177.2)SECA0-058%2.3
2-13Mississippi (111.4)SECA0-057%1.8
2-17Auburn (159.0)SECH0-088%12.8
2-20Missouri (218.4)SECH0-090%13.9
2-23LSU (82.0)SECH0-068%5.1
2-27Tennessee (119.1)SECA0-054%1.0
3-2Alabama (82.0)SECA0-057%1.8
3-5South Carolina (46.8)SECH0-063%3.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Arkansas's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Arkansas's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Arkansas.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ArkansasSEC26.2426.1144.9451.75-2.650.91
LSUSEC2.613.8363.6459.870.710.76
Mississippi St.SEC2.613.8342.8642.07-0.37-0.61
Texas A&MSEC4.693.8380.9579.982.902.30
MissouriSEC2.473.7836.3632.11-0.67-1.35
TennesseeSEC2.563.7850.0048.510.00-0.11
VanderbiltSEC2.552.3059.0962.000.460.55
MississippiSEC0.412.2865.2259.540.120.44
AuburnSEC0.452.2840.9137.46-0.08-0.57
South CarolinaSEC0.342.2786.3680.590.251.39
AlabamaSEC0.342.2759.0953.360.060.15
KentuckySEC2.462.2472.7370.611.120.92
GeorgiaSEC2.552.2460.0055.140.510.23
FloridaSEC2.562.2263.6464.960.700.66
Georgia TechACC2.271.7250.0049.980.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC2.271.7240.9138.56-0.41-0.39
DaytonA102.271.6985.7181.771.621.08
North FloridaASun2.271.6968.1869.630.830.66
Charleston SouthernBSth2.281.6725.0027.63-1.14-0.75
SouthernSWAC2.221.6768.4269.270.820.64
Texas TechB122.221.6761.9054.950.530.17
Northwestern St.Slnd2.171.6720.0027.60-1.30-0.75
AkronMAC2.231.6480.9579.341.380.96
StanfordP122.231.6447.3744.63-0.12-0.18
MercerSC2.171.6471.4369.710.930.65
EvansvilleMVC2.171.6178.2678.871.230.93
Tennessee TechOVC2.171.6171.4369.240.930.62
Kansas St.B120.240.2160.8758.470.050.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.250.1959.0959.440.040.04
BaylorB120.310.1972.7366.500.140.06
Gardner WebbBSth0.190.1945.4547.57-0.02-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.190.1850.0049.090.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.260.1715.0027.26-0.18-0.08
UNC AshevilleBSth0.250.1765.2266.160.070.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.140.1621.7423.40-0.08-0.09
Florida St.ACC0.200.1669.5764.890.080.05
TexasB120.290.1669.5762.630.120.04
ClemsonACC0.100.1660.8760.240.020.03
WoffordSC0.190.1640.9145.38-0.03-0.01
XavierBE0.140.1691.3084.380.120.11
ArizonaP120.170.1479.1778.330.100.08
LipscombASun0.150.1425.0029.27-0.07-0.06
ChattanoogaSC0.200.1486.3685.030.150.10
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.150.1420.8323.63-0.09-0.07
TulaneAmer0.200.1433.3332.34-0.07-0.05
Arizona St.P120.200.1454.1751.660.020.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.240.1447.6252.07-0.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.190.1382.6177.740.120.07
Miami FLACC0.190.1381.8276.740.120.07
Notre DameACC0.090.1369.5765.850.040.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.120.1217.6529.24-0.07-0.05
High PointBSth0.150.1255.0057.480.020.02
WinthropBSth0.160.1265.0063.440.050.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.100.1260.0060.090.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.150.1116.6720.13-0.10-0.07
Alabama St.SWAC0.150.1130.0035.77-0.06-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.100.1166.6762.620.030.03
Wichita St.MVC0.140.1172.7376.360.060.06
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.1145.4554.11-0.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.150.1131.8230.48-0.05-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.150.1147.8350.15-0.010.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.140.1113.6415.80-0.10-0.08
USC UpstateASun0.140.1122.7323.25-0.08-0.06
Missouri St.MVC0.140.1139.1337.74-0.03-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.100.1147.8344.37-0.00-0.01
RichmondA100.140.1154.5554.490.010.01
DukeACC0.140.1173.9170.040.070.04
Iowa St.B120.140.1173.9170.060.070.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.100.1163.1658.790.030.02
OklahomaB120.100.1186.3682.100.070.07
TCUB120.100.1143.4837.22-0.01-0.03
KansasB120.140.1181.8277.570.090.06
SyracuseACC0.190.1066.6762.560.060.03
GonzagaWCC0.140.1078.2676.810.080.06
Jackson St.SWAC0.100.0947.6252.67-0.000.00
BelmontOVC0.090.0966.6766.540.030.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0925.0024.36-0.02-0.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.100.0952.0050.250.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.160.0975.0071.500.080.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.100.0936.8438.39-0.03-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.140.0837.5040.52-0.04-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.150.0845.4549.70-0.01-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.100.0838.8945.66-0.02-0.01
ColoradoP120.110.0869.5765.330.040.03
OregonP120.050.0882.6179.210.040.05
UtahP120.160.0869.5767.480.060.03
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0850.0049.860.00-0.00
NJITASun0.090.0854.1755.250.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.100.0825.0033.21-0.05-0.03
Saint LouisA100.100.0836.3633.47-0.03-0.03
FurmanSC0.100.0852.1753.310.000.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.100.0828.5731.89-0.04-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0828.5731.36-0.02-0.03
Green BayHorz0.150.0854.5556.000.010.01
VCUA100.090.0873.9173.900.050.04
VillanovaBE0.150.0886.9686.370.110.06
MemphisAmer0.050.0860.8760.770.010.02
UCLAP120.090.0856.5253.240.010.01
IllinoisB100.090.0845.8344.11-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.100.0856.5256.310.010.01
George MasonA100.100.0834.7834.15-0.03-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.150.0833.3335.48-0.05-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0840.9149.27-0.01-0.00
BradleyMVC0.050.0812.5012.85-0.03-0.06
DuquesneA100.100.0863.6456.430.030.01
Illinois St.MVC0.090.0854.1750.930.010.00
Virginia TechACC0.090.0854.1749.270.01-0.00
West VirginiaB120.100.0882.6179.550.060.05
George WashingtonA100.100.0878.2674.420.050.04
MarshallCUSA0.100.0850.0051.170.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0839.1341.12-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0876.1968.220.020.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.0721.0527.82-0.04-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0727.7834.50-0.00-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0714.2917.92-0.05-0.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0770.5975.550.000.03
CampbellBSth0.050.0628.5729.65-0.02-0.03
LibertyBSth0.100.0634.7836.50-0.03-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0625.0026.87-0.03-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.120.0645.0049.39-0.01-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0650.0052.350.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.100.0628.0030.73-0.04-0.02
CaliforniaP120.110.0665.2262.880.030.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.110.0615.7920.03-0.07-0.03
Oregon St.P120.050.0661.9056.420.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.069.0917.09-0.04-0.04
StetsonASun0.090.0623.8127.69-0.05-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.100.0656.5257.000.010.01
IowaB100.100.0682.6180.580.060.03
DePaulBE0.050.0634.7834.45-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.100.0636.8441.44-0.03-0.01
SamfordSC0.100.0639.1341.32-0.02-0.01
The CitadelSC0.100.0633.3331.31-0.03-0.02
VMISC0.050.0615.7917.42-0.03-0.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0571.4368.710.020.02
DavidsonA100.100.0560.0057.960.020.01
Ohio St.B100.100.0558.3354.160.020.00
Seton HallBE0.050.0573.9169.830.020.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0552.3847.040.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.050.0559.0958.880.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.100.0550.0051.170.000.00
DrakeMVC0.050.0521.7423.66-0.03-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0552.3854.010.000.00
HawaiiBW0.050.0584.2181.670.030.03
Indiana St.MVC0.090.0552.1751.960.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.0563.6459.440.000.01
La SalleA100.100.0520.0020.45-0.06-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0543.4842.62-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0528.5726.96-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0554.1755.080.000.01
OhioMAC0.050.0561.9059.430.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0556.5256.610.000.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0572.0070.510.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0571.4368.970.020.02
UMKCWAC0.050.0528.5732.71-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0530.4326.50-0.00-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0540.0039.00-0.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0540.9139.36-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.090.0582.6178.690.060.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0582.6178.890.030.03
South FloridaAmer0.050.0520.0019.66-0.03-0.03
St. John'sBE0.050.0526.0923.72-0.02-0.03
VirginiaACC0.090.0582.6178.050.060.03
AmericanPat0.050.0530.4331.89-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0542.8639.19-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.050.0552.1753.380.000.00
ButlerBE0.050.0569.5767.230.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.090.0530.0034.56-0.04-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0563.6460.940.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0522.7327.19-0.03-0.02
HoustonAmer0.050.0569.5766.510.020.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0562.5056.260.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0530.4335.11-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.050.0554.1751.810.000.00
NorthwesternB100.050.0566.6763.420.020.01
PurdueB100.090.0579.1776.550.060.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0535.0035.98-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0533.3334.19-0.02-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.070.0331.5831.80-0.03-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.0352.6350.220.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.0356.2556.100.010.00
LamarSlnd0.070.0331.5831.96-0.03-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0342.8646.34-0.01-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.050.0322.7324.97-0.03-0.02
RadfordBSth0.050.0350.0051.270.000.00
RiderMAAC0.050.0340.0042.11-0.01-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.050.0345.4538.47-0.00-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0340.9143.53-0.01-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0365.2268.610.020.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0317.3920.66-0.03-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.050.0331.5831.79-0.02-0.01
FIUCUSA0.050.0340.9145.30-0.01-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0321.0523.58-0.03-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0382.6181.140.040.02
HartfordAE0.050.0326.0926.50-0.02-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0342.1145.73-0.01-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0385.7185.390.040.02
SMUAmer0.050.0390.9186.130.040.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0337.5043.37-0.01-0.00
USCP120.000.0378.2673.060.000.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0314.2915.46-0.03-0.02
WashingtonP120.000.0365.2261.070.000.01
Washington St.P120.000.0336.3632.00-0.00-0.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0343.4842.50-0.01-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0326.0929.20-0.02-0.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0368.0067.970.020.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0390.4886.880.040.02
Ball St.MAC0.050.0363.6459.240.010.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0331.8236.14-0.02-0.01
BucknellPat0.050.0354.5558.140.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0321.7422.74-0.03-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0315.0022.36-0.03-0.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0313.6418.14-0.00-0.02
FordhamA100.050.0355.0052.290.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0361.9059.660.010.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0335.0038.52-0.00-0.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0365.2264.220.000.01
IndianaB100.050.0379.1774.020.030.01
IonaMAAC0.050.0360.8760.730.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0357.8961.750.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0371.4369.420.000.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0326.0927.82-0.02-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0379.1780.760.030.02
New MexicoMWC0.000.0360.8763.000.000.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0375.0070.940.020.01
RutgersB100.050.0321.7420.35-0.03-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0330.4331.18-0.02-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0350.0053.300.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0377.2776.860.030.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0331.5831.98-0.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0359.0960.070.010.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0365.2261.450.000.01
UABCUSA0.000.0382.6179.420.000.02
UC IrvineBW0.050.0372.7371.620.020.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0342.8650.41-0.010.00
UMBCAE0.050.0324.0026.41-0.02-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.050.0371.4369.840.020.01
AlbanyAE0.050.0375.0075.850.020.01
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0354.1755.570.000.00
ColgatePat0.050.0345.4546.10-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.050.0342.1140.16-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0347.6245.85-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0357.8956.100.000.00
Michigan St.B100.050.0383.3383.020.030.02
NavyPat0.050.0362.5062.450.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0329.1733.15-0.02-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.050.0380.9582.700.030.02
TowsonCAA0.000.0365.2259.750.000.01
TroySB0.000.0323.8126.67-0.00-0.01
VermontAE0.050.0354.1757.520.000.00