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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


UTSA

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:264.0
Current RPI:264
Expected SOS:277
Current SOS:277
Current Record:12-19
Expected Record:12-19
Current Conf Record:9-11
Expected Conf Record:9-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-11
Current OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:314
Expected OOC SOS:304



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-19264.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UTSA.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Fresno St. (76.0)MWCA69-66L0%0.0
11-13Oregon St. (280.0)P12A72-64L0%0.0
11-16Illinois Chicago (249.0)HorzA86-78L0%0.0
11-19Prairie View A&M (307.0)SWACH69-59W100%0.0
11-22Lamar (232.0)SlndA78-58L0%0.0
11-25Texas St. (179.0)SBH63-48W100%0.0
12-1Cal Poly (297.0)BWA59-47L0%0.0
12-3Utah Valley (206.0)WACA75-71L0%0.0
12-7Texas Tech (124.0)B12A87-50L0%0.0
12-18Texas A&M Corpus Chris (158.0)SlndA73-69L0%0.0
12-21Utah Valley (206.0)WACH66-60W100%0.0
1-1UTEP (222.0)CUSAH67-55W100%0.0
1-5Southern Miss (331.0)CUSAA77-59L0%0.0
1-7Louisiana Tech (116.0)CUSAA68-69W100%0.0
1-12Florida Atlantic (281.0)CUSAH68-63W100%0.0
1-14FIU (338.0)CUSAH57-55W100%0.0
1-21UTEP (222.0)CUSAA59-39L0%0.0
1-26Marshall (112.0)CUSAA92-71L0%0.0
1-28Western Kentucky (226.0)CUSAA81-66L0%0.0
2-2Middle Tennessee (34.0)CUSAH59-69L0%0.0
2-4UAB (201.0)CUSAH82-67W100%0.0
2-9Southern Miss (331.0)CUSAH57-51W100%0.0
2-11Louisiana Tech (116.0)CUSAH66-72L0%0.0
2-16Rice (167.0)CUSAA80-68L0%0.0
2-18North Texas (339.0)CUSAA83-73L0%0.0
2-23FIU (338.0)CUSAA67-69W100%0.0
2-25Florida Atlantic (281.0)CUSAA73-66L0%0.0
3-2Charlotte (240.0)CUSAH75-76L0%0.0
3-4Old Dominion (138.0)CUSAH73-55W100%0.0
3-8Western Kentucky (226.0)CUSAN52-56W100%0.0
3-9Middle Tennessee (34.0)CUSAN86-70L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UTSA's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UTSA's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UTSA.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UTSACUSA26.2626.2639.3239.32-5.61-5.61
UTEPCUSA4.004.0044.8344.83-0.41-0.41
Middle TennesseeCUSA3.993.9987.1087.102.962.96
Louisiana TechCUSA3.943.9468.9768.971.491.49
Florida AtlanticCUSA3.933.9326.9226.92-1.81-1.81
Southern MissCUSA3.883.8822.2222.22-2.16-2.16
FIUCUSA3.883.8818.5218.52-2.45-2.45
Western KentuckyCUSA3.863.8646.6746.67-0.26-0.26
Utah ValleyWAC3.233.2342.3142.31-0.50-0.50
MarshallCUSA2.482.4854.5554.550.230.23
RiceCUSA2.442.4463.3363.330.650.65
UABCUSA2.432.4351.6151.610.080.08
North TexasCUSA2.332.3318.5218.52-1.46-1.46
CharlotteCUSA2.322.3239.2939.29-0.50-0.50
Old DominionCUSA2.302.3063.3363.330.610.61
Prairie View A&MSWAC1.771.7736.6736.67-0.47-0.47
LamarSlnd1.751.7550.0050.000.000.00
Texas St.SB1.731.7360.0060.000.350.35
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd1.721.7259.2659.260.320.32
Oregon St.P121.721.7210.0010.00-1.38-1.38
Fresno St.MWC1.721.7258.6258.620.300.30
Cal PolyBW1.691.6928.5728.57-0.73-0.73
Texas TechB121.671.6754.8454.840.160.16
Illinois ChicagoHorz1.641.6440.0040.00-0.33-0.33
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.250.2551.7251.720.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.230.2324.1424.14-0.12-0.12
New Mexico St.WAC0.220.2283.3383.330.150.15
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.220.2246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.210.2140.0040.00-0.04-0.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.200.2067.8667.860.070.07
HawaiiBW0.190.1944.8344.83-0.02-0.02
SeattleWAC0.170.1737.0437.04-0.04-0.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.170.1768.9768.970.060.06
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.170.1776.6776.670.090.09
Houston BaptistSlnd0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.160.1636.0036.00-0.05-0.05
CaliforniaP120.160.1663.6463.640.040.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.150.1523.3323.33-0.08-0.08
Chicago St.WAC0.140.1410.3410.34-0.11-0.11
UC DavisBW0.140.1462.5062.500.040.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.140.1419.2319.23-0.09-0.09
ElonCAA0.140.1453.3353.330.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.140.1432.0032.00-0.05-0.05
UtahP120.140.1462.0762.070.030.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.130.136.906.90-0.11-0.11
New MexicoMWC0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.130.1387.5087.500.100.10
Grambling St.SWAC0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
UMKCWAC0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.110.1156.6756.670.020.02
UC RiversideBW0.110.1122.2222.22-0.06-0.06
Idaho St.BSky0.110.1113.3313.33-0.08-0.08
Utah St.MWC0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.110.1137.0437.04-0.03-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
UC IrvineBW0.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.110.1134.3834.38-0.03-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.110.1174.1974.190.050.05
LSUSEC0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
NevadaMWC0.110.1182.3582.350.070.07
WashingtonP120.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.100.1037.5037.50-0.03-0.03
TroySB0.100.1058.8258.820.020.02
DetroitHorz0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
Georgia St.SB0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
TexasB120.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
BelmontOVC0.100.1077.7877.780.060.06
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.090.0936.0036.00-0.02-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.090.0960.7160.710.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
Washington St.P120.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.080.0840.6240.62-0.02-0.02
TulaneAmer0.080.0819.3519.35-0.05-0.05
Ohio St.B100.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
James MadisonCAA0.080.0828.1228.12-0.03-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
OregonP120.080.0884.8584.850.050.05
Green BayHorz0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0829.4129.41-0.03-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
UNLVMWC0.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
SouthernSWAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
KansasB120.080.0887.5087.500.060.06
VCUA100.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
OhioMAC0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
BYUWCC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
DenverSum0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.060.0696.9796.970.050.05
HofstraCAA0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
BinghamtonAE0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.060.0636.6736.67-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.060.0627.5927.59-0.02-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0618.5218.52-0.04-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Arizona St.P120.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
NebraskaB100.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
OaklandHorz0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
StanfordP120.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UCLAP120.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
USCP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
RichmondA100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Iowa St.B120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.053.333.33-0.05-0.05
OklahomaB120.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
PittsburghACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
DrexelCAA0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
DavidsonA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
MarylandB100.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0378.5778.570.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
PacificWCC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
George MasonA100.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
HoustonAmer0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Little RockSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
PortlandWCC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
WisconsinB100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
FurmanSC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
AkronMAC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01