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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


UTSA

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:187.0
Current RPI:187
Expected SOS:241
Current SOS:241
Current Record:16-14
Expected Record:16-14
Current Conf Record:12-8
Expected Conf Record:12-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-6
Current OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC RPI:232
Expected OOC SOS:256



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-14187.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UTSA.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Texas St. (243.0)SBA78-79W100%0.0
11-17Coastal Carolina (246.0)SBN69-83L0%0.0
11-18Bradley (105.0)MVCN69-71L0%0.0
11-19James Madison (272.0)CAAN77-90W100%0.0
11-24Texas A&M Corpus Chris (326.0)SlndH72-58W100%0.0
11-28Tulsa (89.0)AmerA100-96L0%0.0
12-2Utah Valley (83.0)WACA88-80L0%0.0
12-4Oklahoma (49.0)B12A97-85L0%0.0
12-9Houston Baptist (345.0)SlndH87-71W100%0.0
12-20Nebraska (56.0)B10A104-94L0%0.0
12-28Rice (328.0)CUSAH79-66W100%0.0
12-30North Texas (235.0)CUSAH71-72L0%0.0
1-4Louisiana Tech (192.0)CUSAA76-78W100%0.0
1-6Southern Miss (207.0)CUSAA93-83L0%0.0
1-11FIU (295.0)CUSAH76-79L0%0.0
1-13Florida Atlantic (275.0)CUSAH69-73L0%0.0
1-20UTEP (293.0)CUSAH65-61W100%0.0
1-25Middle Tennessee (33.0)CUSAA75-51L0%0.0
1-27UAB (155.0)CUSAA70-82W100%0.0
2-1Marshall (87.0)CUSAH81-77W100%0.0
2-3Western Kentucky (39.0)CUSAH74-63W100%0.0
2-10UTEP (293.0)CUSAA59-63W100%0.0
2-15Old Dominion (78.0)CUSAA100-62L0%0.0
2-17Charlotte (323.0)CUSAA89-97W100%0.0
2-22Southern Miss (207.0)CUSAH64-56W100%0.0
2-24Louisiana Tech (192.0)CUSAH74-64W100%0.0
3-1North Texas (235.0)CUSAA80-62L0%0.0
3-3Rice (328.0)CUSAA60-79W100%0.0
3-7UTEP (293.0)CUSAN71-58W100%0.0
3-8Marshall (87.0)CUSAN95-81L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UTSA's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UTSA's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UTSA.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UTSACUSA26.2726.2755.8855.883.093.09
UTEPCUSA5.695.6937.0437.04-1.48-1.48
North TexasCUSA4.134.1339.2939.29-0.89-0.89
Southern MissCUSA4.134.1339.2939.29-0.88-0.88
Louisiana TechCUSA4.114.1151.7251.720.140.14
RiceCUSA4.054.0518.5218.52-2.55-2.55
MarshallCUSA4.054.0570.9770.971.701.70
FIUCUSA2.472.4735.7135.71-0.71-0.71
Old DominionCUSA2.462.4677.4277.421.351.35
UABCUSA2.462.4660.0060.000.490.49
Middle TennesseeCUSA2.462.4675.8675.861.271.27
Western KentuckyCUSA2.462.4671.8871.881.071.07
Florida AtlanticCUSA2.412.4129.6329.63-0.98-0.98
CharlotteCUSA2.372.3718.5218.52-1.50-1.50
Texas St.SB1.871.8743.3343.33-0.25-0.25
Houston BaptistSlnd1.761.7611.1111.11-1.37-1.37
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd1.751.7532.0032.00-0.63-0.63
James MadisonCAA1.751.7530.0030.00-0.70-0.70
Coastal CarolinaSB1.751.7535.7135.71-0.50-0.50
NebraskaB101.721.7267.7467.740.610.61
OklahomaB121.721.7256.6756.670.230.23
BradleyMVC1.671.6758.0658.060.270.27
TulsaAmer1.671.6760.0060.000.330.33
Utah ValleyWAC1.671.6764.2964.290.480.48
LamarSlnd0.290.2953.5753.570.020.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.260.2643.3343.33-0.03-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.220.2260.6160.610.050.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.220.2283.3383.330.150.15
Appalachian St.SB0.220.2241.9441.94-0.04-0.04
Incarnate WordSlnd0.210.2112.5012.50-0.16-0.16
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.170.1780.0080.000.100.10
South AlabamaSB0.170.1740.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.170.1757.5857.580.030.03
TroySB0.170.1745.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.160.1680.6580.650.100.10
Indiana St.MVC0.160.1637.9337.93-0.04-0.04
New OrleansSlnd0.150.1542.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.150.1551.7251.720.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.150.1532.0032.00-0.05-0.05
Northwestern St.Slnd0.150.158.008.00-0.12-0.12
MississippiSEC0.140.1437.5037.50-0.04-0.04
South FloridaAmer0.140.1431.2531.25-0.05-0.05
Texas TechB120.140.1472.7372.730.060.06
New MexicoMWC0.140.1454.5554.550.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.140.1468.7568.750.050.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.130.1331.0331.03-0.05-0.05
William & MaryCAA0.130.1358.6258.620.020.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.120.1244.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.120.1260.7160.710.030.03
Arkansas St.SB0.110.1130.0030.00-0.05-0.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.110.1177.4277.420.060.06
Little RockSB0.110.1120.0020.00-0.07-0.07
TowsonCAA0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
MichiganB100.110.1179.4179.410.060.06
MemphisAmer0.110.1161.7661.760.030.03
TexasB120.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.110.1125.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Missouri St.MVC0.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
IllinoisB100.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
BaylorB120.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.080.083.333.33-0.08-0.08
Boise St.MWC0.080.0873.3373.330.040.04
HowardMEAC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
ElonCAA0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.089.689.68-0.07-0.07
MinnesotaB100.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
DrexelCAA0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Wichita St.Amer0.080.0878.1278.120.050.05
DelawareCAA0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.080.0879.4179.410.050.05
RichmondA100.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
DrakeMVC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.0884.3884.380.050.05
WisconsinB100.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
SeattleWAC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
UMKCWAC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
UNLVMWC0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Michigan St.B100.060.0687.8887.880.040.04
Florida St.ACC0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
South DakotaSum0.060.0673.3373.330.030.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0620.0020.00-0.03-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
AuburnSEC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
USCP120.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
HofstraCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
TCUB120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
TulaneAmer0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
IowaB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
SMUAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
RutgersB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
ValparaisoMVC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
AkronMAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
XavierBE0.050.0584.8584.850.040.04
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
DavidsonA100.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
High PointBSth0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
BYUWCC0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
DukeACC0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
HamptonMEAC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
HartfordAE0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
HawaiiBW0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
KentuckySEC0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0382.7682.760.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0312.5012.50-0.02-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
PacificWCC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
The CitadelSC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
DaytonA100.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.036.676.67-0.02-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
IndianaB100.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
IUPUIHorz0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
MarylandB100.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
VillanovaBE0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01