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Through games of Jan 21, 2018.


UTSA

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:248.7
Current RPI:274
Expected SOS:239
Current SOS:309
Current Record:7-10
Expected Record:11-17
Current Conf Record:3-4
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-7
Current OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC RPI:232
Expected OOC SOS:261



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-11156.00.01%
16-12172.00.14%
15-13187.10.90%
14-14203.84.49%
13-15220.311.73%
12-16234.921.81%
11-17250.326.41%
10-18265.921.34%
9-19282.210.33%
8-20298.32.54%
7-21310.80.29%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UTSA.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Texas St. (216.4)SBA78-79W100%0.0
11-17Coastal Carolina (245.2)SBN69-83L0%0.0
11-18Bradley (123.3)MVCN69-71L0%0.0
11-19James Madison (278.3)CAAN77-90W100%0.0
11-24Texas A&M Corpus Chris (335.5)SlndH72-58W100%0.0
11-28Tulsa (128.6)AmerA100-96L0%0.0
12-2Utah Valley (84.6)WACA88-80L0%0.0
12-4Oklahoma (22.7)B12A97-85L0%0.0
12-9Houston Baptist (334.4)SlndH87-71W100%0.0
12-20Nebraska (100.5)B10A104-94L0%0.0
12-28Rice (321.9)CUSAH79-66W100%0.0
12-30North Texas (217.4)CUSAH71-72L0%0.0
1-4Louisiana Tech (159.7)CUSAA76-78W100%0.0
1-6Southern Miss (223.2)CUSAA93-83L0%0.0
1-11FIU (287.9)CUSAH76-79L0%0.0
1-13Florida Atlantic (239.8)CUSAH69-73L0%0.0
1-20UTEP (283.4)CUSAH65-61W100%0.0
1-25Middle Tennessee (32.7)CUSAA0-09%-14.9
1-27UAB (126.6)CUSAA0-014%-12.1
2-1Marshall (101.3)CUSAH0-044%-1.7
2-3Western Kentucky (45.3)CUSAH0-025%-7.6
2-10UTEP (283.4)CUSAA0-043%-2.0
2-15Old Dominion (73.6)CUSAA0-011%-13.4
2-17Charlotte (301.7)CUSAA0-054%1.2
2-22Southern Miss (223.2)CUSAH0-068%5.3
2-24Louisiana Tech (159.7)CUSAH0-045%-1.5
3-1North Texas (217.4)CUSAA0-037%-3.6
3-3Rice (321.9)CUSAA0-060%2.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UTSA's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UTSA's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UTSA.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UTSACUSA26.4026.1840.2641.01-5.14-4.71
UTEPCUSA3.454.3235.2934.52-1.01-1.34
North TexasCUSA3.424.3241.1844.08-0.60-0.51
RiceCUSA3.354.2911.7617.49-2.56-2.79
Louisiana TechCUSA3.194.2655.5657.330.350.62
Southern MissCUSA3.194.2537.5036.28-0.80-1.17
FIUCUSA3.192.5631.2533.15-1.20-0.86
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.342.5372.2274.130.151.22
UABCUSA0.342.5361.1163.340.080.68
Florida AtlanticCUSA3.112.5333.3335.28-1.04-0.74
Old DominionCUSA0.422.5078.9576.350.241.32
CharlotteCUSA0.422.5023.5324.90-0.22-1.25
MarshallCUSA0.162.4768.4263.910.060.69
Western KentuckyCUSA0.162.4768.4270.650.061.02
Texas St.SB3.301.9861.1152.010.730.08
Houston BaptistSlnd3.021.896.2520.06-2.64-1.13
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd3.021.888.3324.25-2.52-0.97
James MadisonCAA3.031.8826.3229.21-1.43-0.78
Coastal CarolinaSB3.021.8523.5335.85-1.60-0.52
NebraskaB103.021.8565.0058.480.910.31
OklahomaB123.021.8576.4766.801.600.62
BradleyMVC2.941.7963.1656.430.770.23
TulsaAmer2.941.7952.6351.710.150.06
Utah ValleyWAC2.941.7964.7164.720.870.53
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.550.2945.0045.03-0.05-0.03
LamarSlnd0.520.2950.0054.890.000.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.250.2560.0062.030.050.06
Appalachian St.SB0.230.2233.3337.23-0.08-0.06
Incarnate WordSlnd0.080.207.6920.09-0.07-0.12
South AlabamaSB0.330.1950.0045.870.00-0.02
TroySB0.250.1935.2942.76-0.07-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.160.1980.0078.850.100.11
New Mexico St.WAC0.250.1983.3384.240.160.13
Indiana St.MVC0.080.1844.4446.02-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.280.1743.7549.13-0.04-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.170.1628.5731.26-0.07-0.06
Northwestern St.Slnd0.280.167.1414.82-0.24-0.11
MississippiSEC0.270.1652.6345.860.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.180.1635.0026.12-0.05-0.07
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.240.1683.3381.370.160.10
Georgia St.SB0.160.1666.6765.520.050.05
Texas TechB120.260.1578.9571.810.150.07
Oklahoma St.B120.320.1568.4254.090.120.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.160.1352.9452.650.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.200.1337.5045.24-0.05-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.200.1350.0051.380.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.170.1327.7831.11-0.08-0.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.180.1357.8966.260.030.04
South CarolinaSEC0.250.1361.1151.910.060.00
Little RockSB0.150.1222.2225.25-0.08-0.06
College of CharlestonCAA0.080.1266.6765.640.030.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.160.1266.6765.370.050.04
New MexicoMWC0.160.1245.0048.56-0.02-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.090.1270.0068.300.040.04
TowsonCAA0.090.1263.1665.970.020.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.1231.5832.72-0.03-0.04
EvansvilleMVC0.220.1252.6347.520.01-0.01
TexasB120.080.1263.1657.630.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.220.1247.3746.09-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.150.1264.7159.990.040.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.190.1045.0049.29-0.02-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.090.1010.5316.75-0.07-0.06
Chicago St.WAC0.160.100.003.07-0.16-0.09
BaylorB120.110.1061.1156.090.030.01
MichiganB100.160.0976.1970.740.080.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.170.0950.0052.460.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.160.0926.6729.04-0.07-0.04
Weber St.BSky0.230.0956.2557.400.030.01
BelmontOVC0.090.0971.4374.660.040.05
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0922.2228.590.00-0.04
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0942.1132.47-0.01-0.03
ElonCAA0.160.0952.6351.080.010.00
AlabamaSEC0.080.0968.4258.980.030.02
George MasonA100.150.0945.0041.30-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.150.0942.1143.51-0.02-0.01
MinnesotaB100.160.0963.6457.630.040.01
MemphisAmer0.150.0965.0058.540.040.02
RichmondA100.070.0931.5834.36-0.03-0.03
DelawareCAA0.150.0947.3743.02-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.070.0961.1147.220.02-0.00
Kansas St.B120.160.0973.6862.720.070.02
TempleAmer0.070.0952.6351.740.000.00
Wichita St.Amer0.160.0978.9577.380.090.05
KansasB120.070.0984.2179.750.050.05
IllinoisB100.070.0947.3744.27-0.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.070.0950.0046.300.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.0752.9455.030.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0729.4133.20-0.03-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.160.0756.2556.830.020.01
Florida St.ACC0.090.0773.6869.640.040.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0770.0071.230.000.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.0772.2258.920.040.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.090.0758.8257.140.020.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0757.8954.500.000.01
South DakotaSum0.090.0773.6872.380.040.03
UMKCWAC0.080.0721.0524.75-0.05-0.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.090.0721.0523.51-0.05-0.04
Wake ForestACC0.080.0642.1140.46-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0636.8435.57-0.02-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.150.0629.4134.76-0.06-0.02
VermontAE0.160.0675.0077.850.080.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0616.6724.26-0.05-0.03
AuburnSEC0.000.0689.4777.000.000.03
Boise St.MWC0.080.0678.9576.990.050.03
Fort WayneSum0.080.0652.6351.690.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.080.0668.4254.070.030.01
Georgia TechACC0.080.0652.6343.110.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.0636.8444.11-0.02-0.01
HowardMEAC0.080.0610.5327.29-0.06-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0638.8943.43-0.02-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.080.0650.0047.660.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0644.4450.31-0.010.00
San DiegoWCC0.080.0663.1657.540.020.01
UNLVMWC0.080.0673.6865.260.040.02
Washington St.P120.080.0647.3741.44-0.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.160.0685.0083.200.110.04
StetsonASun0.160.0633.3336.93-0.05-0.02
USCP120.080.0671.4368.280.040.02
IowaB100.000.0647.6244.020.00-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0652.6347.390.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.070.0655.0048.980.01-0.00
DrexelCAA0.070.0630.0030.99-0.03-0.02
HofstraCAA0.070.0657.8959.490.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0678.9574.190.040.03
NortheasternCAA0.150.0663.1663.220.040.02
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0644.4450.08-0.010.00
OhioMAC0.000.0647.0648.410.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.000.0670.0070.570.000.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0655.0052.470.010.00
TCUB120.160.0673.6865.600.080.02
TulaneAmer0.070.0663.1657.890.020.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0622.2227.330.00-0.03
ValparaisoMVC0.070.0647.3748.77-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.080.0684.2178.170.060.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.140.0629.4133.93-0.06-0.02
NorthwesternB100.150.0655.0050.330.020.00
PurdueB100.070.0690.4888.370.060.04
UCFAmer0.070.0668.4260.860.030.01
Penn St.B100.070.0661.9055.760.020.01
RutgersB100.000.0655.0046.690.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.110.0466.6755.940.040.00
BYUWCC0.080.0380.9576.240.050.02
DukeACC0.080.0389.4785.210.060.02
HawaiiBW0.080.0368.7563.990.030.01
Idaho St.BSky0.080.0343.7540.93-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.080.0373.6867.970.040.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.0341.1839.16-0.02-0.01
UC DavisBW0.080.0358.8262.440.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.080.0317.6523.86-0.05-0.02
DavidsonA100.000.0358.8261.450.000.01
DetroitHorz0.090.0321.0525.97-0.05-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.080.0320.0041.73-0.05-0.01
HartfordAE0.090.0350.0045.930.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.000.0343.7549.230.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.080.0360.0064.110.020.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.090.0345.0047.07-0.01-0.00
North FloridaASun0.090.0331.5835.15-0.03-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0327.7827.100.00-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.090.0370.0060.470.030.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.090.0342.1146.09-0.01-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.090.0368.4257.740.030.00
WoffordSC0.080.0368.7563.690.030.01
Air ForceMWC0.080.0337.5031.76-0.02-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0330.0036.50-0.03-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0372.2274.930.000.02
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0361.9063.140.020.01
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0345.0041.33-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0333.3333.770.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0377.7870.480.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0010.670.00-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.0370.5975.950.000.02
PacificWCC0.080.0345.0044.47-0.01-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0352.9460.220.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0335.2940.480.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0347.0644.910.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.080.0368.4264.200.030.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0344.4446.000.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.080.0361.1158.700.020.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0358.8249.760.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0389.4785.550.000.02
DaytonA100.000.0347.3750.940.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0338.8944.080.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.070.0373.6871.560.030.01
HoustonAmer0.070.0378.9572.990.040.01
IUPUIHorz0.070.0327.7829.83-0.03-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0350.0050.860.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0315.7920.910.00-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0323.5328.690.00-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0325.0028.01-0.04-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0318.7536.820.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0343.7554.110.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.070.0366.6773.210.020.01
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0330.0032.52-0.03-0.01
OregonP120.080.0365.0063.850.020.01
PortlandWCC0.080.0327.7827.28-0.04-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0321.0539.48-0.04-0.01
RadfordBSth0.070.0357.8958.850.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0358.8262.820.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.0327.7840.970.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0326.3231.500.00-0.01
The CitadelSC0.070.0318.7518.36-0.05-0.02
ToledoMAC0.000.0366.6767.700.000.01
VCUA100.000.0360.0059.700.000.01
VillanovaBE0.000.0394.7490.310.000.02
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0352.9452.230.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.0368.4269.250.000.01
XavierBE0.000.0385.7180.080.000.02
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0365.0054.670.020.00
CreightonBE0.070.0375.0070.700.040.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.030.009.09-0.07-0.02
IndianaB100.000.0357.8950.710.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0340.0043.35-0.01-0.00
MaristMAAC0.070.0321.0522.02-0.04-0.02
MarylandB100.000.0370.0065.250.000.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0380.9576.520.000.02
St. John'sBE0.070.0347.3742.16-0.00-0.00