UTSA

Conference:	CUSA
Expected RPI:	187.0
Current RPI:	187
Expected SOS:	241
Current SOS:	241
Current Record:	16-14
Expected Record:	16-14
Current Conf Record:	12-8
Expected Conf Record:	12-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	11-6
Current OOC Record:	4-6
Expected OOC Record:	4-6
Expected OOC RPI:	232
Expected OOC SOS:	256

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
16-14	187.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UTSA.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-15	Texas St. (243.0)	SB	A	78-79	W	100%
11-17	Coastal Carolina (246.0)	SB	N	69-83	L	0%
11-18	Bradley (105.0)	MVC	N	69-71	L	0%
11-19	James Madison (272.0)	CAA	N	77-90	W	100%
11-24	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (326.0)	Slnd	H	72-58	W	100%
11-28	Tulsa (89.0)	Amer	A	100-96	L	0%
12-2	Utah Valley (83.0)	WAC	A	88-80	L	0%
12-4	Oklahoma (49.0)	B12	A	97-85	L	0%
12-9	Houston Baptist (345.0)	Slnd	H	87-71	W	100%
12-20	Nebraska (56.0)	B10	A	104-94	L	0%
12-28	Rice (328.0)	CUSA	H	79-66	W	100%
12-30	North Texas (235.0)	CUSA	H	71-72	L	0%
1-4	Louisiana Tech (192.0)	CUSA	A	76-78	W	100%
1-6	Southern Miss (207.0)	CUSA	A	93-83	L	0%
1-11	FIU (295.0)	CUSA	H	76-79	L	0%
1-13	Florida Atlantic (275.0)	CUSA	H	69-73	L	0%
1-20	UTEP (293.0)	CUSA	H	65-61	W	100%
1-25	Middle Tennessee (33.0)	CUSA	A	75-51	L	0%
1-27	UAB (155.0)	CUSA	A	70-82	W	100%
2-1	Marshall (87.0)	CUSA	H	81-77	W	100%
2-3	Western Kentucky (39.0)	CUSA	H	74-63	W	100%
2-10	UTEP (293.0)	CUSA	A	59-63	W	100%
2-15	Old Dominion (78.0)	CUSA	A	100-62	L	0%
2-17	Charlotte (323.0)	CUSA	A	89-97	W	100%
2-22	Southern Miss (207.0)	CUSA	H	64-56	W	100%
2-24	Louisiana Tech (192.0)	CUSA	H	74-64	W	100%
3-1	North Texas (235.0)	CUSA	A	80-62	L	0%
3-3	Rice (328.0)	CUSA	A	60-79	W	100%
3-7	UTEP (293.0)	CUSA	N	71-58	W	100%
3-8	Marshall (87.0)	CUSA	N	95-81	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UTSA's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

UTSA's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against UTSA.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
UTSA	CUSA	26.27	26.27	55.88	55.88	3.09	3.09
UTEP	CUSA	5.69	5.69	37.04	37.04	-1.48	-1.48
North Texas	CUSA	4.13	4.13	39.29	39.29	-0.89	-0.89
Southern Miss	CUSA	4.13	4.13	39.29	39.29	-0.88	-0.88
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	4.11	4.11	51.72	51.72	0.14	0.14
Rice	CUSA	4.05	4.05	18.52	18.52	-2.55	-2.55
Marshall	CUSA	4.05	4.05	70.97	70.97	1.70	1.70
FIU	CUSA	2.47	2.47	35.71	35.71	-0.71	-0.71
Old Dominion	CUSA	2.46	2.46	77.42	77.42	1.35	1.35
UAB	CUSA	2.46	2.46	60.00	60.00	0.49	0.49
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	2.46	2.46	75.86	75.86	1.27	1.27
Western Kentucky	CUSA	2.46	2.46	71.88	71.88	1.07	1.07
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	2.41	2.41	29.63	29.63	-0.98	-0.98
Charlotte	CUSA	2.37	2.37	18.52	18.52	-1.50	-1.50
Texas St.	SB	1.87	1.87	43.33	43.33	-0.25	-0.25
Houston Baptist	Slnd	1.76	1.76	11.11	11.11	-1.37	-1.37
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	1.75	1.75	32.00	32.00	-0.63	-0.63
James Madison	CAA	1.75	1.75	30.00	30.00	-0.70	-0.70
Coastal Carolina	SB	1.75	1.75	35.71	35.71	-0.50	-0.50
Nebraska	B10	1.72	1.72	67.74	67.74	0.61	0.61
Oklahoma	B12	1.72	1.72	56.67	56.67	0.23	0.23
Bradley	MVC	1.67	1.67	58.06	58.06	0.27	0.27
Tulsa	Amer	1.67	1.67	60.00	60.00	0.33	0.33
Utah Valley	WAC	1.67	1.67	64.29	64.29	0.48	0.48
Lamar	Slnd	0.29	0.29	53.57	53.57	0.02	0.02
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.26	0.26	43.33	43.33	-0.03	-0.03
UT Arlington	SB	0.22	0.22	60.61	60.61	0.05	0.05
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.22	0.22	83.33	83.33	0.15	0.15
Appalachian St.	SB	0.22	0.22	41.94	41.94	-0.04	-0.04
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.21	0.21	12.50	12.50	-0.16	-0.16
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.17	0.17	80.00	80.00	0.10	0.10
South Alabama	SB	0.17	0.17	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.17	0.17	57.58	57.58	0.03	0.03
Troy	SB	0.17	0.17	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.16	0.16	80.65	80.65	0.10	0.10
Indiana St.	MVC	0.16	0.16	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
New Orleans	Slnd	0.15	0.15	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.15	0.15	51.72	51.72	0.01	0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.15	0.15	32.00	32.00	-0.05	-0.05
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.15	0.15	8.00	8.00	-0.12	-0.12
Mississippi	SEC	0.14	0.14	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
South Florida	Amer	0.14	0.14	31.25	31.25	-0.05	-0.05
Texas Tech	B12	0.14	0.14	72.73	72.73	0.06	0.06
New Mexico	MWC	0.14	0.14	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.14	0.14	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Georgia St.	SB	0.14	0.14	68.75	68.75	0.05	0.05
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.13	0.13	31.03	31.03	-0.05	-0.05
William & Mary	CAA	0.13	0.13	58.62	58.62	0.02	0.02
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.12	0.12	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.12	0.12	60.71	60.71	0.03	0.03
Arkansas St.	SB	0.11	0.11	30.00	30.00	-0.05	-0.05
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.11	0.11	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
College of Charleston	CAA	0.11	0.11	77.42	77.42	0.06	0.06
Little Rock	SB	0.11	0.11	20.00	20.00	-0.07	-0.07
Towson	CAA	0.11	0.11	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Georgia Southern	SB	0.11	0.11	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Michigan	B10	0.11	0.11	79.41	79.41	0.06	0.06
Memphis	Amer	0.11	0.11	61.76	61.76	0.03	0.03
Texas	B12	0.11	0.11	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Chattanooga	SC	0.11	0.11	25.81	25.81	-0.05	-0.05
Missouri St.	MVC	0.11	0.11	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.11	0.11	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Illinois	B10	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.09	0.09	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Baylor	B12	0.09	0.09	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
East Carolina	Amer	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Chicago St.	WAC	0.08	0.08	3.33	3.33	-0.08	-0.08
Boise St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	73.33	73.33	0.04	0.04
Howard	MEAC	0.08	0.08	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.08	0.08	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Belmont	OVC	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Elon	CAA	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.08	0.08	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.08	0.08	9.68	9.68	-0.07	-0.07
Minnesota	B10	0.08	0.08	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.08	0.08	60.71	60.71	0.02	0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.08	0.08	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
George Mason	A10	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Wichita St.	Amer	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Delaware	CAA	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Kansas	B12	0.08	0.08	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
Richmond	A10	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Temple	Amer	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Drake	MVC	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.08	0.08	84.38	84.38	0.05	0.05
Wisconsin	B10	0.08	0.08	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.06	0.06	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.06	0.06	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Seattle	WAC	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
UMKC	WAC	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
UNLV	MWC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.06	0.06	87.88	87.88	0.04	0.04
Florida St.	ACC	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.06	0.06	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.06	0.06	73.33	73.33	0.03	0.03
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
North Dakota	BSky	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Vermont	AE	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
USC	P12	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Connecticut	Amer	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Montana St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
TCU	B12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Tulane	Amer	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
West Virginia	B12	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
UCF	Amer	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
SMU	Amer	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Rutgers	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Valparaiso	MVC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.05	82.35	82.35	0.03	0.03
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	22.22	22.22	-0.03	-0.03
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Xavier	BE	0.05	0.05	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Davidson	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
High Point	BSth	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Providence	BE	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
BYU	WCC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Hartford	AE	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Hawaii	BW	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Idaho St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Milwaukee	Horz	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
North Florida	ASun	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	82.76	82.76	0.02	0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Air Force	MWC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Cincinnati	Amer	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Colorado St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Houston	Amer	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Jacksonville	ASun	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon	P12	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Pacific	WCC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Portland	WCC	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Radford	BSth	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Creighton	BE	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
Fairfield	MAAC	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
IUPUI	Horz	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Marist	MAAC	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland	B10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
VCU	A10	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Austin Peay	OVC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Villanova	BE	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Wright St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01