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Through games of Feb 22, 2017.


UTSA

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:301.2
Current RPI:299
Expected SOS:307
Current SOS:305
Current Record:9-16
Expected Record:10-19
Current Conf Record:6-8
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-11
Current OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:323
Expected OOC SOS:322



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-16245.91.59%
12-17266.111.73%
11-18291.631.17%
10-19312.038.72%
9-20323.916.78%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UTSA.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Fresno St. (97.2)MWCA69-66L0%0.0
11-13Oregon St. (282.5)P12A72-64L0%0.0
11-16Illinois Chicago (241.3)HorzA86-78L0%0.0
11-19Prairie View A&M (297.0)SWACH69-59W100%0.0
11-22Lamar (233.9)SlndA78-58L0%0.0
11-25Texas St. (210.2)SBH63-48W100%0.0
12-1Cal Poly (314.5)BWA59-47L0%0.0
12-3Utah Valley (231.1)WACA75-71L0%0.0
12-7Texas Tech (104.2)B12A87-50L0%0.0
12-18Texas A&M Corpus Chris (158.5)SlndA73-69L0%0.0
12-21Utah Valley (231.1)WACH66-60W100%0.0
1-1UTEP (261.3)CUSAH67-55W100%0.0
1-5Southern Miss (336.3)CUSAA77-59L0%0.0
1-7Louisiana Tech (114.0)CUSAA68-69W100%0.0
1-12Florida Atlantic (278.5)CUSAH68-63W100%0.0
1-14FIU (336.8)CUSAH57-55W100%0.0
1-21UTEP (261.3)CUSAA59-39L0%0.0
1-26Marshall (124.6)CUSAA92-71L0%0.0
1-28Western Kentucky (218.0)CUSAA81-66L0%0.0
2-2Middle Tennessee (35.5)CUSAH59-69L0%0.0
2-4UAB (182.6)CUSAH82-67W100%0.0
2-9Southern Miss (336.3)CUSAH57-51W100%0.0
2-11Louisiana Tech (114.0)CUSAH66-72L0%0.0
2-16Rice (168.2)CUSAA80-68L0%0.0
2-18North Texas (327.6)CUSAA83-73L0%0.0
2-23FIU (336.8)CUSAA0-038%-3.4
2-25Florida Atlantic (278.5)CUSAA0-033%-4.8
3-2Charlotte (235.4)CUSAH0-049%-0.4
3-4Old Dominion (131.9)CUSAH0-024%-7.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UTSA's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UTSA's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UTSA.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UTSACUSA26.3226.2535.6335.64-7.56-7.54
UTEPCUSA4.634.1739.1341.02-1.01-0.75
Louisiana TechCUSA4.594.1470.8371.781.911.80
Florida AtlanticCUSA2.594.1331.8230.93-0.94-1.57
FIUCUSA2.564.1116.6717.17-1.70-2.70
Southern MissCUSA4.554.1021.7420.42-2.57-2.43
Utah ValleyWAC4.003.4533.3335.51-1.33-1.00
RiceCUSA2.512.4762.5062.200.630.60
North TexasCUSA2.512.4721.7423.10-1.42-1.33
Middle TennesseeCUSA2.592.4484.6284.921.791.71
UABCUSA2.592.4453.8555.060.200.25
CharlotteCUSA0.592.4141.6742.04-0.10-0.38
Old DominionCUSA0.552.3861.5462.410.130.59
Western KentuckyCUSA2.552.3846.1545.85-0.20-0.20
MarshallCUSA2.542.3852.0053.150.100.15
Prairie View A&MSWAC2.231.9132.0035.91-0.80-0.54
LamarSlnd2.201.8847.8350.21-0.100.01
Texas St.SB2.131.8556.5255.180.280.19
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd2.171.8559.0960.530.390.39
Oregon St.P122.121.8511.1110.60-1.65-1.45
Fresno St.MWC2.161.8456.0056.190.260.23
Cal PolyBW2.121.8221.7425.08-1.20-0.91
Texas TechB122.081.7859.2657.950.390.28
Illinois ChicagoHorz2.041.7542.3141.14-0.31-0.31
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.260.2628.0028.37-0.11-0.11
New Mexico St.WAC0.250.2583.3384.080.160.17
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.290.2252.1753.700.010.02
HawaiiBW0.250.2248.0047.45-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.280.2148.1548.38-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.200.2144.0042.77-0.02-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.250.1965.3865.420.080.06
Houston BaptistSlnd0.160.1942.8645.36-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.250.1927.2728.66-0.11-0.08
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.160.1873.0873.880.070.09
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.210.1669.5771.400.080.07
Chicago St.WAC0.210.1612.0011.80-0.16-0.12
McNeese St.Slnd0.130.1622.7323.17-0.07-0.09
Incarnate WordSlnd0.160.1631.8233.09-0.06-0.05
UtahP120.200.1560.0060.170.040.03
ElonCAA0.120.1555.5656.900.010.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.200.1551.8550.690.010.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.160.154.005.36-0.14-0.13
Jackson St.SWAC0.200.1537.5042.38-0.05-0.02
CaliforniaP120.150.1566.6766.210.050.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.150.1428.0028.91-0.07-0.06
SeattleWAC0.090.1339.1337.81-0.02-0.03
UMKCWAC0.170.1348.0046.99-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.170.1356.0055.930.020.02
UC RiversideBW0.130.1326.0928.38-0.06-0.06
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.170.1358.3359.220.030.02
Idaho St.BSky0.160.1316.0016.87-0.11-0.08
Utah St.MWC0.160.1242.3143.98-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.120.1234.7833.41-0.04-0.04
San Diego St.MWC0.160.1257.6958.100.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.120.1256.0055.900.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.160.1257.1456.440.020.02
UC IrvineBW0.160.1251.8554.430.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.120.1248.0047.41-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.160.1230.7733.71-0.06-0.04
South CarolinaSEC0.120.1270.3770.540.050.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.110.1232.1431.91-0.04-0.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.160.1288.8989.350.120.09
LSUSEC0.120.1233.3331.80-0.04-0.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.120.1252.1749.960.01-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.150.1237.5040.16-0.04-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.130.1036.3636.47-0.04-0.03
Washington St.P120.120.1042.3139.94-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0914.8115.43-0.06-0.07
Ohio St.B100.080.0953.5752.340.010.00
Appalachian St.SB0.080.0925.0027.77-0.04-0.04
TulaneAmer0.120.0918.5218.47-0.08-0.06
UT ArlingtonSB0.120.0976.0076.570.060.05
Long Beach St.BW0.080.0940.7442.89-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.110.0978.5778.260.060.05
TroySB0.080.0953.8552.820.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0957.6955.370.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.080.0957.1455.800.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.040.0925.0026.38-0.02-0.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.120.0923.0823.14-0.06-0.05
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0966.6765.160.030.03
Georgia St.SB0.080.0960.0059.400.020.02
OregonP120.070.0985.7185.930.050.06
WashingtonP120.110.0933.3332.52-0.04-0.03
DetroitHorz0.110.0922.2222.38-0.06-0.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.120.0959.2662.730.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.110.0922.2224.27-0.06-0.04
SouthernSWAC0.080.0948.0047.16-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.110.0948.1549.49-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.110.0829.6331.16-0.05-0.03
KansasB120.110.0889.2987.840.090.06
Kansas St.B120.070.0860.7159.890.020.02
TexasB120.070.0835.7134.84-0.02-0.03
BYUWCC0.090.0765.5264.140.030.02
DenverSum0.090.0757.1456.680.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.090.07100.0099.810.090.07
Weber St.BSky0.090.0760.8760.770.020.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.090.0727.5928.17-0.04-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.090.0759.0960.070.020.01
HofstraCAA0.040.0642.8642.57-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.040.0670.3767.240.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.040.0626.9225.66-0.02-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.040.0659.2659.740.010.01
DePaulBE0.080.0632.1430.89-0.03-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0664.2964.460.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.080.0634.6233.56-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.040.0664.0064.920.010.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.080.0650.0049.820.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.040.0643.4843.27-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.080.0646.1547.50-0.01-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0665.3864.150.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.080.0678.5776.210.050.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.040.0620.0021.74-0.02-0.03
San Jose St.MWC0.080.0650.0046.860.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.040.0612.5014.87-0.03-0.04
WyomingMWC0.080.0653.8553.510.010.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0625.9327.44-0.04-0.03
Arizona St.P120.080.0646.4344.09-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.080.0646.1547.81-0.01-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.040.0633.3334.84-0.01-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0625.0026.71-0.04-0.03
Green BayHorz0.070.0657.6958.300.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.040.0650.0049.370.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0625.0026.25-0.04-0.03
NebraskaB100.080.0644.0042.70-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.040.0630.7732.11-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.040.0662.9662.600.010.01
OaklandHorz0.070.0674.0773.500.040.03
StetsonASun0.040.0629.6328.76-0.02-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.070.0678.5777.380.040.03
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0642.3143.63-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.040.0662.9662.450.010.01
UNLVMWC0.040.0635.7134.80-0.01-0.02
PittsburghACC0.080.0653.5750.750.010.00
ColoradoP120.070.0655.5655.660.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0614.2918.10-0.05-0.04
StanfordP120.070.0650.0047.370.00-0.00
UCLAP120.070.0688.8988.050.060.04
USCP120.070.0677.7875.870.040.03
VCUA100.040.0682.1479.370.020.03
AuburnSEC0.070.0660.7159.670.020.01
BelmontOVC0.070.0680.0079.920.040.03
OhioMAC0.080.0668.0068.550.030.02
RichmondA100.040.0659.2659.930.010.01
BaylorB120.070.0681.4878.550.040.03
Iowa St.B120.070.0666.6764.750.020.02
OklahomaB120.070.0633.3333.59-0.02-0.02
TCUB120.070.0659.2657.620.010.01
West VirginiaB120.070.0678.5777.800.040.03
Texas A&MSEC0.040.0351.8551.660.000.00
LibertyBSth0.040.0357.6957.630.010.00
Arkansas St.SB0.040.0369.2368.600.020.01
DavidsonA100.000.0353.8552.600.000.00
DrakeMVC0.040.0322.2223.45-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.040.0328.5729.06-0.02-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0346.4343.89-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0382.1480.600.000.02
HartfordAE0.040.0330.0029.22-0.02-0.01
Little RockSB0.040.0344.0043.41-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.040.0362.9661.410.010.01
MarylandB100.000.0377.7876.990.000.02
NiagaraMAAC0.040.0331.0331.60-0.02-0.01
PacificWCC0.040.0332.1432.21-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.040.0329.6328.42-0.02-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.040.0372.7374.040.020.01
RutgersB100.040.0342.8642.33-0.01-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.040.0340.7440.12-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0350.0049.750.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.040.0346.1546.96-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.040.0357.1457.070.010.00
Montana St.BSky0.040.0346.1546.03-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.040.0351.8551.810.000.00
AkronMAC0.040.0377.7876.390.020.02
ArizonaP120.040.0389.2987.680.030.02
ChattanoogaSC0.040.0365.3866.650.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.040.0388.8987.450.030.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.0326.0925.97-0.00-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.040.0342.8643.65-0.01-0.00
FurmanSC0.040.0364.2964.510.010.01
George MasonA100.040.0362.9661.470.010.01
George WashingtonA100.040.0351.8551.210.000.00
HoustonAmer0.040.0370.3769.130.020.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0319.2321.44-0.00-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.040.0355.5655.100.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.0378.5778.520.000.02
MemphisAmer0.040.0366.6763.170.010.01
MississippiSEC0.040.0360.7159.870.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.040.0344.0046.00-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.040.0346.1546.49-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.040.0375.0077.120.020.02
PortlandWCC0.040.0329.6329.44-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0366.6766.780.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.040.0333.3334.37-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0342.8642.05-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.040.0357.6956.380.010.00
TowsonCAA0.000.0364.2961.960.000.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.040.0381.4881.510.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.040.0353.5751.920.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.040.0322.2222.75-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.000.0352.0053.050.000.00
WisconsinB100.040.0381.4880.840.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.040.0330.7730.10-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.040.0335.7135.66-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.040.0351.8551.270.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.040.0316.0016.19-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.040.0325.9325.77-0.02-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.040.030.003.38-0.04-0.03