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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Princeton

Conference:Ivy
Expected RPI:122.0
Current RPI:122
Expected SOS:282
Current SOS:282
Current Record:19-8
Expected Record:19-8
Current Conf Record:8-6
Expected Conf Record:8-6
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-2
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:94
Expected OOC SOS:320



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-8122.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Princeton.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Florida A&M (295.0)MEACH67-50W100%0.0
11-16Butler (150.0)BEA70-67L0%0.0
11-20Lafayette (258.0)PatH81-80W100%0.0
11-23Rice (299.0)CUSAA56-70W100%0.0
11-26George Mason (164.0)A10H71-66W100%0.0
11-30Bucknell (167.0)PatA53-66W100%0.0
12-7Fairleigh Dickinson (269.0)NECH77-55W100%0.0
12-11Rutgers (192.0)AmerA73-78W100%0.0
12-14Penn St. (114.0)B10A79-81W100%0.0
12-20Pacific (133.0)WCCN83-58W100%0.0
12-21Portland (178.0)WCCN79-93L0%0.0
12-31Kent St. (213.0)MACH73-68W100%0.0
1-4Liberty (311.0)BSthA74-80W100%0.0
1-11Penn (284.0)IvyA77-74L0%0.0
1-31Harvard (46.0)IvyA82-76L0%0.0
2-1Dartmouth (266.0)IvyA78-69L0%0.0
2-7Columbia (130.0)IvyH52-53L0%0.0
2-8Cornell (334.0)IvyH69-48W100%0.0
2-14Brown (229.0)IvyA65-69W100%0.0
2-15Yale (147.0)IvyA66-65L0%0.0
2-21Dartmouth (266.0)IvyH67-57W100%0.0
2-22Harvard (46.0)IvyH47-59L0%0.0
2-28Yale (147.0)IvyH57-46W100%0.0
3-1Brown (229.0)IvyH69-64W100%0.0
3-7Cornell (334.0)IvyA51-91W100%0.0
3-8Columbia (130.0)IvyA64-74W100%0.0
3-11Penn (284.0)IvyH70-65W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Princeton's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Princeton's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Princeton.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
PrincetonIvy26.3426.3472.8072.8012.0112.01
ColumbiaIvy4.614.6160.7160.710.990.99
PennIvy4.604.6026.9226.92-2.12-2.12
YaleIvy4.564.5652.0052.000.180.18
HarvardIvy4.554.5585.1985.193.203.20
BrownIvy4.504.5056.0056.000.540.54
CornellIvy4.504.504.004.00-4.14-4.14
DartmouthIvy4.504.5037.5037.50-1.12-1.12
LafayettePat2.052.0534.4834.48-0.64-0.64
BucknellPat2.032.0355.1755.170.210.21
RutgersAmer1.981.9835.4835.48-0.58-0.58
PortlandWCC1.981.9846.6746.67-0.13-0.13
Penn St.B101.951.9548.3948.39-0.06-0.06
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC1.941.9432.1432.14-0.69-0.69
George MasonA101.921.9236.6736.67-0.51-0.51
RiceCUSA1.921.9218.5218.52-1.21-1.21
PacificWCC1.911.9150.0050.000.000.00
Kent St.MAC1.881.8850.0050.000.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC1.881.8841.3841.38-0.32-0.32
ButlerBE1.851.8541.3841.38-0.32-0.32
LibertyBSth1.851.8528.5728.57-0.79-0.79
BryantNEC0.340.3454.8454.840.030.03
AmericanPat0.280.2862.5062.500.070.07
Sacred HeartNEC0.260.2616.1316.13-0.18-0.18
St. John'sBE0.250.2562.5062.500.060.06
ColgatePat0.250.2540.0040.00-0.05-0.05
ArmyPat0.240.2446.6746.67-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.230.2314.2914.29-0.17-0.17
Loyola MDPat0.220.2234.4834.48-0.07-0.07
Boston UniversityPat0.220.2270.5970.590.090.09
Seton HallBE0.210.2150.0050.000.000.00
New HampshireAE0.210.2117.2417.24-0.14-0.14
VermontAE0.200.2066.6766.670.070.07
UMass LowellAE0.200.2033.3333.33-0.07-0.07
Central ConnecticutNEC0.200.2034.4834.48-0.06-0.06
ProvidenceBE0.200.2067.6567.650.070.07
St. Francis PANEC0.190.1932.2632.26-0.07-0.07
ConnecticutAmer0.190.1976.4776.470.100.10
WagnerNEC0.190.1960.0060.000.040.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.190.1938.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Holy CrossPat0.190.1959.3859.380.040.04
HartfordAE0.170.1751.5251.520.010.01
AlbanyAE0.170.1756.2556.250.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.160.1621.2121.21-0.09-0.09
Stony BrookAE0.160.1668.7568.750.060.06
VillanovaBE0.160.1687.5087.500.120.12
North TexasCUSA0.160.1644.8344.83-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.160.1654.8454.840.020.02
LouisvilleAmer0.160.1685.2985.290.110.11
TempleAmer0.150.1529.0329.03-0.06-0.06
Loyola MarymountWCC0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
Michigan St.B100.150.1576.4776.470.080.08
South FloridaAmer0.150.1537.5037.50-0.04-0.04
BinghamtonAE0.140.1423.3323.33-0.07-0.07
RadfordBSth0.130.1360.0060.000.030.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.130.1380.6580.650.080.08
NJITind0.130.1336.0036.00-0.04-0.04
IowaB100.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
HowardMEAC0.130.1319.3519.35-0.08-0.08
La SalleA100.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
BYUWCC0.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
FordhamA100.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
GonzagaWCC0.120.1281.8281.820.080.08
PepperdineWCC0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.120.1263.3363.330.030.03
LehighPat0.120.1243.7543.75-0.02-0.02
NavyPat0.120.1227.5927.59-0.06-0.06
RiderMAAC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
NorthwesternB100.100.1042.4242.42-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.1072.7372.730.040.04
MonmouthMAAC0.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.090.0961.7661.760.020.02
UABCUSA0.090.0955.1755.170.010.01
IdahoWAC0.090.0945.4545.45-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.090.0941.3841.38-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.090.0975.0075.000.040.04
MinnesotaB100.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
IPFWSum0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
MaineAE0.070.0717.8617.86-0.05-0.05
MercerASun0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
Notre DameACC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.070.0784.3884.380.050.05
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
FIUCUSA0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.060.0622.5822.58-0.04-0.04
CampbellBSth0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
DenverSum0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Green BayHorz0.060.0677.7877.780.040.04
High PointBSth0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
HofstraCAA0.060.0630.3030.30-0.03-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
TCUB120.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
VMIBSth0.060.0655.5655.560.010.01
WinthropBSth0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.060.0629.0329.03-0.03-0.03
BradleyMVC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0616.6716.67-0.04-0.04
CreightonBE0.060.0678.7978.790.040.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
DePaulBE0.060.0636.3636.36-0.02-0.02
ElonSC0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
MarquetteBE0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0683.8783.870.040.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
XavierBE0.060.0662.5062.500.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.060.0610.7110.71-0.05-0.05
LamarSlnd0.060.0610.7110.71-0.05-0.05
ToledoMAC0.060.0681.2581.250.040.04
AkronMAC0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.060.0664.2964.290.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
MassachusettsA100.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
OhioMAC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
Oregon St.P120.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
IndianaB100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
MemphisAmer0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
NebraskaB100.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Ohio St.B100.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
SMUAmer0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
UCFAmer0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
East CarolinaCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
TexasB120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
TulaneCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
TulsaCUSA0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0373.5373.530.020.02
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.030.0325.9325.93-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
NevadaMWC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
VirginiaACC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0325.9325.93-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
StanfordP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
StetsonASun0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
IonaMAAC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
OklahomaB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
RichmondA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.030.033.573.57-0.03-0.03
UC DavisBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
DrexelCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
MichiganB100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
PittsburghACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.030.0378.7978.790.020.02