Princeton

Conference:	Ivy
Expected RPI:	226.0
Current RPI:	226
Expected SOS:	224
Current SOS:	224
Current Record:	12-16
Expected Record:	12-16
Current Conf Record:	5-9
Expected Conf Record:	5-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-5
Current OOC Record:	7-7
Expected OOC Record:	7-7
Expected OOC RPI:	135
Expected OOC SOS:	130

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
12-16	226.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Princeton.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-12	Butler (41.0)	BE	A	85-75	L	0%
11-15	BYU (67.0)	WCC	H	56-65	L	0%
11-18	Saint Joseph's (147.0)	A10	A	71-58	L	0%
11-22	Lafayette (311.0)	Pat	H	60-46	W	100%
11-26	Fairleigh Dickinson (254.0)	NEC	A	76-83	W	100%
11-29	Lehigh (214.0)	Pat	H	76-85	L	0%
12-2	Miami FL (28.0)	ACC	N	80-52	L	0%
12-6	George Washington (195.0)	A10	A	71-60	L	0%
12-12	Monmouth (199.0)	MAAC	H	69-58	W	100%
12-16	Cal Poly (305.0)	BW	A	60-80	W	100%
12-19	USC (34.0)	P12	A	93-103	W	100%
12-22	Middle Tennessee (33.0)	CUSA	N	67-69	L	0%
12-23	Akron (227.0)	MAC	N	62-64	W	100%
12-25	Hawaii (213.0)	BW	A	63-77	W	100%
1-6	Penn (112.0)	Ivy	A	76-70	L	0%
1-12	Columbia (316.0)	Ivy	H	72-56	W	100%
1-13	Cornell (248.0)	Ivy	H	91-54	W	100%
2-2	Yale (183.0)	Ivy	H	76-73	W	100%
2-3	Brown (298.0)	Ivy	H	100-102	L	0%
2-6	Penn (112.0)	Ivy	H	65-82	L	0%
2-9	Harvard (117.0)	Ivy	A	66-51	L	0%
2-10	Dartmouth (334.0)	Ivy	A	72-56	L	0%
2-16	Cornell (248.0)	Ivy	A	107-101	L	0%
2-17	Columbia (316.0)	Ivy	A	85-60	L	0%
2-23	Harvard (117.0)	Ivy	H	66-72	L	0%
2-24	Dartmouth (334.0)	Ivy	H	64-47	W	100%
3-2	Brown (298.0)	Ivy	A	63-78	W	100%
3-3	Yale (183.0)	Ivy	A	94-90	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Princeton's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Princeton's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Princeton.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Princeton	Ivy	26.30	26.30	44.62	44.62	-2.83	-2.83
Penn	Ivy	4.56	4.56	72.41	72.41	2.04	2.04
Harvard	Ivy	4.53	4.53	53.57	53.57	0.32	0.32
Yale	Ivy	4.47	4.47	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Cornell	Ivy	4.43	4.43	40.00	40.00	-0.89	-0.89
Brown	Ivy	4.33	4.33	37.50	37.50	-1.08	-1.08
Columbia	Ivy	4.33	4.33	25.00	25.00	-2.17	-2.17
Dartmouth	Ivy	4.33	4.33	20.83	20.83	-2.53	-2.53
Lafayette	Pat	1.97	1.97	31.03	31.03	-0.75	-0.75
Lehigh	Pat	1.96	1.96	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Monmouth	MAAC	1.93	1.93	36.67	36.67	-0.52	-0.52
Saint Joseph's	A10	1.93	1.93	48.39	48.39	-0.06	-0.06
George Washington	A10	1.90	1.90	43.75	43.75	-0.24	-0.24
Hawaii	BW	1.88	1.88	55.56	55.56	0.21	0.21
USC	P12	1.88	1.88	69.70	69.70	0.74	0.74
Miami FL	ACC	1.87	1.87	70.00	70.00	0.75	0.75
Cal Poly	BW	1.85	1.85	25.00	25.00	-0.92	-0.92
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	1.84	1.84	75.86	75.86	0.95	0.95
Akron	MAC	1.81	1.81	43.33	43.33	-0.24	-0.24
Butler	BE	1.79	1.79	59.38	59.38	0.33	0.33
BYU	WCC	1.79	1.79	69.70	69.70	0.70	0.70
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	1.79	1.79	39.29	39.29	-0.38	-0.38
Colgate	Pat	0.29	0.29	58.06	58.06	0.05	0.05
Navy	Pat	0.28	0.28	61.29	61.29	0.06	0.06
Villanova	BE	0.27	0.27	88.24	88.24	0.20	0.20
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.26	0.26	36.36	36.36	-0.07	-0.07
Bryant	NEC	0.26	0.26	9.68	9.68	-0.21	-0.21
Boston University	Pat	0.24	0.24	46.67	46.67	-0.02	-0.02
Albany	AE	0.23	0.23	67.74	67.74	0.08	0.08
Holy Cross	Pat	0.21	0.21	38.71	38.71	-0.05	-0.05
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.21	0.21	62.07	62.07	0.05	0.05
Toledo	MAC	0.21	0.21	66.67	66.67	0.07	0.07
Boston College	ACC	0.19	0.19	55.88	55.88	0.02	0.02
Army	Pat	0.19	0.19	41.38	41.38	-0.03	-0.03
Loyola MD	Pat	0.19	0.19	26.67	26.67	-0.09	-0.09
Vermont	AE	0.19	0.19	78.79	78.79	0.11	0.11
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.18	0.18	70.00	70.00	0.07	0.07
Bucknell	Pat	0.18	0.18	73.53	73.53	0.08	0.08
Fordham	A10	0.17	0.17	29.03	29.03	-0.07	-0.07
La Salle	A10	0.17	0.17	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
Massachusetts	A10	0.17	0.17	39.39	39.39	-0.04	-0.04
George Mason	A10	0.17	0.17	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Maine	AE	0.17	0.17	13.33	13.33	-0.12	-0.12
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.16	0.16	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.16	0.16	30.00	30.00	-0.06	-0.06
UC Irvine	BW	0.16	0.16	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.15	0.15	78.12	78.12	0.09	0.09
American	Pat	0.15	0.15	20.00	20.00	-0.09	-0.09
Niagara	MAAC	0.15	0.15	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Duquesne	A10	0.15	0.15	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.15	0.15	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.15	0.15	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Davidson	A10	0.14	0.14	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.14	0.14	78.12	78.12	0.08	0.08
Dayton	A10	0.14	0.14	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.14	0.14	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.14	0.14	84.85	84.85	0.10	0.10
Utah	P12	0.14	0.14	63.33	63.33	0.04	0.04
Stony Brook	AE	0.14	0.14	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Longwood	BSth	0.13	0.13	13.33	13.33	-0.10	-0.10
UMass Lowell	AE	0.13	0.13	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.13	0.13	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.13	0.13	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
NJIT	ASun	0.13	0.13	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Marist	MAAC	0.13	0.13	19.35	19.35	-0.08	-0.08
Penn St.	B10	0.13	0.13	61.76	61.76	0.03	0.03
Canisius	MAAC	0.13	0.13	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Delaware	CAA	0.13	0.13	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Northeastern	CAA	0.13	0.13	68.75	68.75	0.05	0.05
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.13	0.13	14.29	14.29	-0.09	-0.09
Long Beach St.	BW	0.13	0.13	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
UC Davis	BW	0.13	0.13	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
UC Riverside	BW	0.13	0.13	24.14	24.14	-0.06	-0.06
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.12	0.12	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Providence	BE	0.12	0.12	61.76	61.76	0.03	0.03
Manhattan	MAAC	0.12	0.12	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.12	0.12	25.81	25.81	-0.06	-0.06
Fairfield	MAAC	0.12	0.12	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Creighton	BE	0.11	0.11	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Temple	Amer	0.11	0.11	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.11	0.11	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Saint Louis	A10	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Connecticut	Amer	0.10	0.10	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Notre Dame	ACC	0.10	0.10	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
New Hampshire	AE	0.10	0.10	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
Syracuse	ACC	0.09	0.09	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.09	0.09	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.09	0.09	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Siena	MAAC	0.09	0.09	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Virginia	ACC	0.09	0.09	93.94	93.94	0.08	0.08
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.09	0.09	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.09	0.09	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Marshall	CUSA	0.09	0.09	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.09	0.09	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.09	0.09	28.57	28.57	-0.04	-0.04
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.09	0.09	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Rider	MAAC	0.08	0.08	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
California	P12	0.08	0.08	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Pepperdine	WCC	0.08	0.08	16.13	16.13	-0.06	-0.06
Stanford	P12	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
St. John's	BE	0.08	0.08	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
VCU	A10	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Xavier	BE	0.08	0.08	84.85	84.85	0.06	0.06
Gonzaga	WCC	0.08	0.08	88.24	88.24	0.06	0.06
Oregon	P12	0.08	0.08	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.08	0.08	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.07	0.07	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Robert Morris	NEC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Wagner	NEC	0.06	0.06	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
TCU	B12	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Wofford	SC	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Utah Valley	WAC	0.06	0.06	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Maryland	B10	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.06	0.06	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	6.67	6.67	-0.05	-0.05
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.06	0.06	71.43	71.43	0.02	0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Towson	CAA	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
UMKC	WAC	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Western Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
SMU	Amer	0.06	0.06	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
UT Arlington	SB	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	12.50	12.50	-0.04	-0.04
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	83.33	83.33	0.04	0.04
Washington St.	P12	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Pacific	WCC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Portland	WCC	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
San Francisco	WCC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
North Dakota	BSky	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Troy	SB	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
College of Charleston	CAA	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
Fresno St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Idaho	BSky	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Rutgers	B10	0.03	0.03	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Belmont	OVC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Charlotte	CUSA	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Drexel	CAA	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
FIU	CUSA	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	82.76	82.76	0.02	0.02
North Texas	CUSA	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
UTEP	CUSA	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
UTSA	CUSA	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Appalachian St.	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	32.35	32.35	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	24.24	24.24	-0.01	-0.01
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Louisville	ACC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	22.22	22.22	-0.02	-0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Purdue	B10	0.03	0.03	82.35	82.35	0.02	0.02
Texas	B12	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Western Illinois	Sum	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Arizona St.	P12	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Idaho St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Oklahoma	B12	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	44.12	44.12	-0.00	-0.00
Utah St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Washington	P12	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01