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Through games of Nov 24, 2014.


Princeton

Conference:Ivy
Expected RPI:251.7
Current RPI:328
Expected SOS:219
Current SOS:312
Current Record:1-3
Expected Record:11-16
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:6-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-6
Current OOC Record:1-3
Expected OOC Record:5-8
Expected OOC RPI:269
Expected OOC SOS:237



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-791.00.01%
19-8100.00.03%
18-9105.00.06%
17-10132.90.28%
16-11148.51.07%
15-12169.42.78%
14-13188.66.03%
13-14209.811.37%
12-15230.416.08%
11-16251.319.11%
10-17270.516.96%
9-18287.912.54%
8-19304.28.00%
7-20317.03.72%
6-21328.41.32%
5-22336.90.53%
4-23341.00.09%
3-24346.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Princeton.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Rider (216.0)MAACH64-58W100%0.0
11-16George Mason (233.4)A10A63-60L0%0.0
11-19Lafayette (122.1)PatA83-66L0%0.0
11-22Incarnate Word (206.9)SlndH68-79L0%0.0
11-27UTEP (86.6)CUSAN0-020%-9.9
12-3Fairleigh Dickinson (282.2)NECA0-053%1.0
12-6Stony Brook (105.4)AEH0-037%-4.1
12-10Saint Peter's (298.2)MAACA0-048%-0.5
12-13California (53.4)P12A0-05%-19.5
12-19Lipscomb (239.9)ASunH0-062%3.6
12-22Liberty (318.4)BSthH0-080%10.0
12-31Wake Forest (119.6)ACCA0-014%-13.0
1-6Norfolk St. (233.2)MEACH0-065%4.5
1-10Penn (314.3)IvyH0-076%8.5
1-30Harvard (75.7)IvyH0-026%-7.8
1-31Dartmouth (291.0)IvyH0-072%6.9
2-6Columbia (116.1)IvyA0-017%-11.4
2-7Cornell (275.7)IvyA0-044%-1.8
2-13Brown (262.5)IvyH0-066%4.9
2-14Yale (64.8)IvyH0-028%-7.0
2-20Dartmouth (291.0)IvyA0-049%-0.3
2-21Harvard (75.7)IvyA0-011%-15.0
2-27Yale (64.8)IvyA0-012%-14.2
2-28Brown (262.5)IvyA0-042%-2.3
3-6Cornell (275.7)IvyH0-067%5.3
3-7Columbia (116.1)IvyH0-036%-4.2
3-10Penn (314.3)IvyA0-054%1.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Princeton's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Princeton's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Princeton.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
PrincetonIvy35.6226.3618.7538.95-22.27-5.83
ColumbiaIvy0.004.6066.6764.950.001.37
CornellIvy1.254.5733.3336.95-0.42-1.19
PennIvy3.124.570.0023.90-3.12-2.38
YaleIvy0.004.5475.0068.360.001.67
BrownIvy0.004.5320.0036.82-0.00-1.20
DartmouthIvy0.004.500.0034.43-0.00-1.40
HarvardIvy0.004.4950.0066.550.001.49
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.002.080.0027.71-0.00-0.93
LafayettePat12.502.0166.6763.234.170.53
Stony BrookAE0.001.9933.3365.26-0.000.61
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.001.9850.0038.520.00-0.46
RiderMAAC12.501.9866.6749.244.17-0.03
George MasonA1012.501.920.0018.90-12.50-1.19
UTEPCUSA0.001.89100.0069.910.000.75
Incarnate WordSlnd12.501.890.0049.55-12.50-0.02
CaliforniaP120.001.8575.0067.290.000.64
LibertyBSth0.001.8533.3335.68-0.00-0.53
LipscombASun0.001.850.0043.49-0.00-0.24
Norfolk St.MEAC0.001.8533.3347.68-0.00-0.09
Wake ForestACC0.001.8560.0044.170.00-0.22
BryantNEC0.000.3350.0054.140.000.03
WagnerNEC0.000.270.0042.28-0.00-0.04
VermontAE0.000.2733.3358.52-0.000.05
UMass LowellAE0.000.2660.0041.560.00-0.04
HartfordAE0.000.2675.0040.470.00-0.05
AmericanPat0.000.2360.0057.920.000.04
Loyola MDPat0.000.2350.0032.050.00-0.08
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.2333.3330.55-0.00-0.09
CanisiusMAAC0.000.2266.6756.820.000.03
Holy CrossPat0.000.20100.0064.010.000.06
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.200.0055.84-0.000.02
Boston UniversityPat0.000.2033.3360.92-0.000.04
VanderbiltSEC0.000.20100.0050.840.000.00
ColgatePat0.000.2025.0038.68-0.00-0.04
New HampshireAE0.000.200.0041.46-0.00-0.03
BinghamtonAE0.000.190.0029.07-0.00-0.08
MaristMAAC0.000.190.0033.80-0.00-0.06
MonmouthMAAC0.000.1950.0054.950.000.02
NiagaraMAAC0.000.1933.3324.20-0.00-0.10
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.1966.6766.090.000.06
SienaMAAC0.000.1933.3360.10-0.000.04
IonaMAAC0.000.1975.0073.930.000.09
LehighPat1.560.170.0033.90-1.56-0.05
BucknellPat0.000.1620.0035.82-0.00-0.05
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.160.0031.34-0.00-0.06
VirginiaACC0.000.16100.0074.230.000.08
NJITind0.000.1620.0027.91-0.00-0.07
ProvidenceBE0.000.16100.0071.170.000.07
ManhattanMAAC0.000.1625.0052.27-0.000.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.140.0033.26-0.00-0.05
LongwoodBSth0.000.1425.0020.27-0.00-0.08
RadfordBSth0.000.1433.3350.07-0.000.00
HofstraCAA0.000.1375.0066.800.000.04
ConnecticutAmer0.000.1375.0070.270.000.05
NavyPat0.000.1320.0033.06-0.00-0.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1350.0037.880.00-0.03
Arizona St.P120.000.1375.0056.870.000.02
HowardMEAC0.000.130.0038.25-0.00-0.03
Penn St.B100.000.1380.0043.930.00-0.02
MaineAE0.000.130.0017.71-0.00-0.08
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1333.3344.26-0.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.1333.3340.10-0.00-0.03
La SalleA100.000.13100.0054.280.000.01
AlbanyAE0.000.1333.3364.13-0.000.04
FairfieldMAAC0.000.1340.0033.57-0.00-0.04
SyracuseACC0.000.1275.0065.950.000.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1150.0050.880.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.110.0029.60-0.00-0.04
North FloridaASun0.000.110.0044.98-0.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.110.0036.18-0.00-0.03
MassachusettsA100.000.1080.0061.930.000.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.1040.0038.53-0.00-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.1020.0025.79-0.00-0.05
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.1033.3349.79-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC1.560.1025.0042.83-0.78-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.100.0045.75-0.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.100.0041.06-0.00-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.10100.0059.320.000.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.1066.6753.410.000.01
ArizonaP120.000.09100.0074.960.000.05
Washington St.P120.000.0933.3328.67-0.00-0.04
FloridaSEC0.000.0966.6768.660.000.03
RichmondA100.000.0966.6766.030.000.03
WashingtonP120.000.09100.0056.070.000.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.080.0030.13-0.00-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.080.0024.93-0.00-0.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.080.0065.66-0.000.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0850.0063.110.000.02
LamarSlnd0.000.080.0034.13-0.00-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.070.0029.61-0.00-0.03
BelmontOVC0.000.0775.0071.990.000.03
CampbellBSth0.000.070.0031.43-0.00-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0750.0055.640.000.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.070.0066.25-0.000.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.07100.0074.040.000.03
HoustonAmer0.000.07100.0063.820.000.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.070.0023.63-0.00-0.04
NortheasternCAA0.000.07100.0075.310.000.04
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0733.3339.78-0.00-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.070.0022.70-0.00-0.04
StetsonASun0.000.070.0033.27-0.00-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.000.0766.6753.640.000.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0733.3354.48-0.000.01
DelawareCAA0.000.070.0020.52-0.00-0.04
KentuckySEC0.000.07100.0087.980.000.05
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0780.0072.030.000.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0740.0066.65-0.000.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.0766.6738.720.00-0.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0733.3327.72-0.00-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0750.0054.250.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0750.0037.390.00-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.070.0027.43-0.00-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0780.0074.980.000.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0733.3343.21-0.00-0.01
ArmyPat0.000.07100.0066.400.000.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.070.0029.05-0.00-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.000.0720.0044.69-0.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.07100.0065.880.000.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0775.0047.380.00-0.00
IPFWSum0.000.0766.6760.760.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.070.0033.20-0.00-0.02
MercerSC0.000.0733.3352.75-0.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.07100.0043.380.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.07100.0041.460.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0733.3344.46-0.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.000.0750.0052.920.000.00
VillanovaBE0.000.07100.0073.380.000.03
ColoradoP120.000.0766.6756.740.000.01
TexasB120.000.07100.0079.170.000.04
Virginia TechACC0.000.0766.6733.810.00-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0675.0056.780.000.01
KansasB121.560.0666.6758.820.520.01
West VirginiaB122.810.06100.0070.422.810.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0031.92-0.00-0.02
RutgersB100.000.0666.6735.400.00-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0666.6759.480.000.01
DavidsonA100.000.0650.0053.850.000.00
DrexelCAA0.000.0620.0035.62-0.00-0.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0666.6774.460.000.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0620.0034.54-0.00-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.0675.0066.130.000.02
Saint LouisA100.000.0666.6757.060.000.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0640.0050.01-0.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0640.0050.60-0.000.00
UMBCAE0.000.060.0038.08-0.00-0.02
VCUA100.000.0675.0067.590.000.02
Notre DameACC0.000.0680.0072.950.000.03
DukeACC0.000.06100.0085.500.000.04
Georgia TechACC0.000.06100.0051.910.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.06100.0060.870.000.01
StanfordP120.000.0675.0069.760.000.02
UCLAP120.000.06100.0064.700.000.02
USCP120.000.0640.0028.54-0.00-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.040.0021.40-0.00-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.040.0045.64-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.000.0466.6752.810.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.040.0034.80-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.040.0053.97-0.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0450.0064.210.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0475.0058.430.000.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0425.0046.39-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.000.040.0046.88-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.000.0433.3323.97-0.00-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0440.0059.10-0.000.01
High PointBSth0.000.0475.0055.840.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0466.6732.480.00-0.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0450.0043.080.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0466.6745.370.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0466.6747.180.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0375.0065.610.000.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.03100.0064.710.000.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0350.0043.570.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0366.6751.200.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0350.0045.420.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.000.0333.3342.50-0.00-0.01
BaylorB120.000.03100.0070.100.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0325.0039.30-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0021.49-0.00-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.0375.0047.460.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0316.6730.01-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0022.66-0.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.030.0069.16-0.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0325.0057.73-0.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0340.0034.21-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0034.67-0.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.03100.0051.940.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0038.56-0.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0380.0059.570.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.03100.0058.760.000.01
College of CharlestonCAA1.250.0340.0053.80-0.250.00
DaytonA100.000.0375.0072.970.000.01
DuquesneA100.000.03100.0054.620.000.00
FordhamA100.000.030.0024.54-0.00-0.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0375.0073.300.000.01
New MexicoMWC1.250.0360.0056.230.250.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.03100.0071.240.000.01
OklahomaB120.000.0366.6758.810.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0366.6757.340.000.00
Seton HallBE0.000.03100.0065.090.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.03100.0074.590.000.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0350.0034.540.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0320.0035.87-0.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0360.0051.710.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0375.0074.330.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0325.0042.98-0.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.000.030.0031.48-0.00-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0081.370.000.02
Miami FLACC0.000.03100.0078.600.000.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0366.6762.260.000.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0333.3351.67-0.000.00
NevadaMWC0.000.0325.0042.95-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.03100.0070.800.000.01
OregonP120.000.0375.0068.720.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0366.6745.890.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0366.6751.570.000.00
SamfordSC0.000.0340.0039.62-0.00-0.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0350.0035.290.00-0.01
UtahP120.000.0366.6772.280.000.01
WisconsinB100.000.03100.0084.620.000.02
WyomingMWC0.000.03100.0066.880.000.01