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Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


Princeton

Conference:Ivy
Expected RPI:96.4
Current RPI:169
Expected SOS:168
Current SOS:145
Current Record:1-3
Expected Record:16-10
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-2
Current OOC Record:1-3
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:81
Expected OOC SOS:59



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-318.00.02%
22-429.90.32%
21-536.01.27%
20-646.34.43%
19-756.19.26%
18-868.815.21%
17-984.219.11%
16-10100.619.06%
15-11119.114.91%
14-12138.89.18%
13-13161.04.52%
12-14179.81.96%
11-15205.70.54%
10-16232.40.17%
9-17246.00.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Princeton.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14BYU (74.9)WCCA82-73L0%0.0
11-20Lehigh (91.3)PatA76-67L0%0.0
11-23Lafayette (285.6)PatA55-71W100%0.0
11-29VCU (41.9)A10A81-70L0%0.0
12-6California (71.4)P12N0-037%-4.1
12-7Hawaii (273.6)BWN0-076%8.4
12-10Liberty (211.7)BSthA0-073%7.2
12-14Saint Joseph's (127.9)A10H0-069%6.0
12-20Monmouth (68.0)MAACA0-039%-3.2
12-22Bucknell (112.4)PatA0-051%0.2
12-28Hampton (315.2)MEACH0-094%18.4
12-31Cal Poly (257.2)BWH0-087%13.2
1-7Penn (143.1)IvyH0-068%5.8
1-13Brown (248.0)IvyH0-087%13.3
1-14Yale (108.7)IvyH0-064%4.4
2-3Dartmouth (319.5)IvyA0-085%12.4
2-4Harvard (205.8)IvyA0-057%2.2
2-7Penn (143.1)IvyA0-048%-0.5
2-10Cornell (264.7)IvyH0-090%15.5
2-11Columbia (252.2)IvyH0-086%12.9
2-17Yale (108.7)IvyA0-044%-1.9
2-18Brown (248.0)IvyA0-072%7.0
2-24Columbia (252.2)IvyA0-071%6.6
2-25Cornell (264.7)IvyA0-078%9.2
3-3Harvard (205.8)IvyH0-076%8.4
3-4Dartmouth (319.5)IvyH0-094%18.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Princeton's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Princeton's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Princeton.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
PrincetonIvy28.5026.4143.7567.99-3.569.50
PennIvy0.004.7833.3357.77-0.000.74
CornellIvy1.044.7828.5731.07-0.45-1.81
YaleIvy0.894.7542.8664.87-0.131.41
ColumbiaIvy0.004.7442.8644.37-0.00-0.53
BrownIvy0.004.7255.5649.000.00-0.09
DartmouthIvy0.004.720.0021.36-0.00-2.70
HarvardIvy0.004.7120.0047.95-0.00-0.19
LafayettePat12.502.2340.0034.59-2.50-0.69
Saint Joseph'sA100.002.1342.8645.80-0.00-0.18
LehighPat12.502.1333.3365.44-4.170.66
BucknellPat0.002.0666.6766.900.000.70
Cal PolyBW0.002.0342.8642.54-0.00-0.30
MonmouthMAAC0.001.9975.0070.950.000.84
HawaiiBW0.001.9950.0051.500.000.06
VCUA1012.501.9971.4372.165.360.88
CaliforniaP120.001.9685.7162.180.000.48
LibertyBSth0.781.9533.3348.83-0.26-0.05
BYUWCC12.501.9257.1465.801.790.61
HamptonMEAC0.001.9214.2944.07-0.00-0.23
ColgatePat0.000.3412.5029.71-0.00-0.14
NavyPat0.000.3425.0037.38-0.00-0.09
Holy CrossPat0.000.3137.5047.37-0.00-0.02
ArmyPat0.000.3042.8650.09-0.000.00
BryantNEC0.000.2925.0047.82-0.00-0.01
AlbanyAE0.000.2942.8661.11-0.000.06
FairfieldMAAC0.000.2471.4359.880.000.05
Rhode IslandA100.000.2462.5069.130.000.09
La SalleA100.890.2366.6755.540.300.03
VermontAE0.000.2262.5071.320.000.09
HowardMEAC0.000.2216.6744.34-0.00-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.2133.3332.92-0.00-0.07
MaineAE0.000.2114.2924.15-0.00-0.11
Stony BrookAE0.000.2128.5738.15-0.00-0.05
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.2028.5736.95-0.00-0.05
MaristMAAC0.000.2044.4434.65-0.00-0.06
AmericanPat0.000.2014.2931.35-0.00-0.07
Boston UniversityPat0.000.2042.8654.90-0.000.02
Loyola MDPat0.000.2042.8645.94-0.00-0.02
HoustonAmer0.000.1885.7178.280.000.10
TempleAmer0.000.1875.0064.920.000.05
UC DavisBW0.000.1750.0045.970.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.1750.0054.070.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.890.1722.2241.71-0.50-0.03
FordhamA100.000.1750.0041.310.00-0.03
MassachusettsA100.000.1771.4358.600.000.03
George WashingtonA100.000.1755.5641.690.00-0.03
DrexelCAA1.040.1750.0040.600.00-0.03
George MasonA100.000.1762.5046.900.00-0.01
SienaMAAC0.000.1637.5052.01-0.000.01
RichmondA100.000.1650.0048.210.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.1557.1429.790.00-0.06
NortheasternCAA0.000.1550.0044.400.00-0.02
HartfordAE0.000.1522.2226.33-0.00-0.07
Miami FLACC0.000.1575.0066.100.000.05
Seton HallBE0.000.1471.4354.560.000.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.1428.5733.77-0.00-0.05
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.1428.5742.90-0.00-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.140.0038.27-0.00-0.03
UC RiversideBW0.000.140.0032.52-0.00-0.05
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.140.0033.85-0.00-0.05
StanfordP120.000.1466.6758.060.000.02
WashingtonP120.000.1457.1452.370.000.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.1420.0021.80-0.00-0.08
VillanovaBE1.040.14100.0084.841.040.10
USCP120.780.13100.0076.680.780.07
NiagaraMAAC0.000.1325.0035.09-0.00-0.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.1137.5033.74-0.00-0.04
TroySB0.000.1142.8636.19-0.00-0.03
VirginiaACC0.000.1187.5078.510.000.06
UMass LowellAE0.000.1122.2238.49-0.00-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.1033.3352.11-0.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.1014.2938.26-0.00-0.02
WinthropBSth0.000.1050.0071.070.000.04
WyomingMWC0.000.1066.6754.050.000.01
NJITASun1.040.1050.0049.780.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.1014.2926.74-0.00-0.05
BinghamtonAE0.780.1050.0043.560.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.1042.8660.54-0.000.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.780.100.0017.13-0.78-0.07
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.100.0035.95-0.00-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.000.1071.4368.050.000.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.100.0027.12-0.00-0.05
SyracuseACC0.000.1071.4366.700.000.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.780.1057.1467.260.110.03
Arizona St.P120.000.1062.5040.460.00-0.02
RiderMAAC0.000.1050.0048.810.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC1.040.1057.1450.420.150.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.1042.8633.23-0.00-0.03
ColoradoP120.000.1075.0062.620.000.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.1071.4370.390.000.04
DavidsonA100.000.0971.4363.170.000.02
DaytonA100.000.0971.4373.490.000.04
Saint LouisA100.780.0928.5723.78-0.33-0.05
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0925.0034.40-0.00-0.03
DelawareCAA0.000.0750.0041.990.00-0.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0762.5043.220.00-0.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0775.0049.180.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0712.5037.99-0.00-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0771.4355.820.000.01
New HampshireAE0.000.0757.1458.840.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.070.0018.64-0.00-0.04
UCFAmer0.000.0785.7176.240.000.04
William & MaryCAA0.000.0733.3346.01-0.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0760.0067.760.000.02
CampbellBSth0.000.0742.8639.20-0.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0720.0037.65-0.00-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0787.5082.360.000.04
High PointBSth0.000.0742.8646.48-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0733.3327.06-0.00-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.000.0775.0056.590.000.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0728.5734.28-0.00-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.0787.5081.960.000.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0711.1148.19-0.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.000.0675.0068.370.000.02
OregonP120.000.0675.0072.250.000.03
Oregon St.P120.000.0625.0022.93-0.00-0.03
UtahP120.000.0675.0059.790.000.01
DuquesneA100.000.0644.4442.03-0.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0637.5044.39-0.00-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.06100.0091.920.000.05
IllinoisB100.780.0662.5050.710.200.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0657.1464.030.000.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0633.3346.38-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.000.0642.8646.14-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.000.0650.0054.070.000.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.06100.0089.330.000.05
San DiegoWCC0.000.0637.5031.23-0.00-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0685.7153.560.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0633.3332.35-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.040.0023.69-0.00-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0416.6730.34-0.00-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0450.0041.990.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0450.0043.390.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0416.6729.80-0.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0414.2932.19-0.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0477.7849.900.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.040.0022.58-0.00-0.02
Kansas St.B120.000.0487.5059.310.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.040.0034.47-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.040.0020.75-0.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0457.1471.520.000.02
Arkansas St.SB0.890.0375.0066.370.450.01
ElonCAA0.000.0371.4359.470.000.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0366.6740.030.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.000.0333.3356.24-0.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0342.8658.58-0.000.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0342.8645.44-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.000.0387.5074.490.000.02
LamarSlnd0.000.0350.0041.540.00-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.890.0375.0048.030.45-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0025.23-0.00-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0342.8645.56-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0333.3339.94-0.00-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0375.0061.490.000.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0371.4356.260.000.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0325.0029.54-0.00-0.01
XavierBE0.890.0387.5070.890.670.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0034.27-0.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0350.0071.020.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0371.4358.920.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0375.0048.500.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0375.0051.040.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0360.0069.120.000.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0325.0039.59-0.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0342.8650.12-0.000.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0337.5047.91-0.00-0.00
UCLAP120.000.03100.0086.690.000.02
Washington St.P120.000.0342.8628.98-0.00-0.01
BaylorB120.780.03100.0076.590.780.02
ButlerBE0.000.03100.0074.440.000.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.780.0325.0038.83-0.39-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0357.1436.010.00-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0312.5029.15-0.00-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0316.6729.81-0.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.780.0371.4349.170.33-0.00
MemphisAmer0.000.0375.0055.500.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0387.5076.230.000.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0316.6739.20-0.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.03100.0078.850.000.02
St. John'sBE0.780.0337.5037.03-0.20-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.780.0342.8650.06-0.110.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.780.0366.6757.300.260.00
ValparaisoHorz0.780.0385.7174.990.560.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0350.0046.240.00-0.00
WagnerNEC0.000.0333.3354.47-0.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.0375.0054.490.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.0316.6749.65-0.00-0.00