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Through games of Mar 5, 2015.


Princeton

Conference:Ivy
Expected RPI:209.6
Current RPI:210
Expected SOS:202
Current SOS:179
Current Record:12-14
Expected Record:14-15
Current Conf Record:6-5
Expected Conf Record:8-6
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-4
Current OOC Record:6-9
Expected OOC Record:6-9
Expected OOC RPI:276
Expected OOC SOS:277



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-14189.022.10%
14-15208.744.35%
13-16221.627.70%
12-17238.45.84%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Princeton.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Rider (129.7)MAACH64-58W100%0.0
11-16George Mason (215.5)A10A63-60L0%0.0
11-19Lafayette (143.4)PatA83-66L0%0.0
11-22Incarnate Word (142.6)SlndH68-79L0%0.0
11-27UTEP (75.6)CUSAN62-56L0%0.0
11-28San Diego (142.9)WCCN75-65L0%0.0
11-30San Jose St. (335.6)MWCN54-69W100%0.0
12-3Fairleigh Dickinson (310.5)NECA89-85L0%0.0
12-6Stony Brook (111.5)AEH77-64W100%0.0
12-10Saint Peter's (243.9)MAACA60-46L0%0.0
12-13California (101.7)P12A67-57L0%0.0
12-19Lipscomb (273.9)ASunH77-55W100%0.0
12-22Liberty (347.1)BSthH65-47W100%0.0
12-31Wake Forest (115.7)ACCA80-66L0%0.0
1-6Norfolk St. (155.9)MEACH71-61W100%0.0
1-10Penn (270.3)IvyH78-74W100%0.0
1-30Harvard (54.2)IvyH72-75L0%0.0
1-31Dartmouth (203.4)IvyH64-53W100%0.0
2-6Columbia (175.2)IvyA62-74W100%0.0
2-7Cornell (215.5)IvyA68-60L0%0.0
2-13Brown (236.9)IvyH75-64W100%0.0
2-14Yale (64.3)IvyH73-81L0%0.0
2-20Dartmouth (203.4)IvyA56-63W100%0.0
2-21Harvard (54.2)IvyA63-55L0%0.0
2-27Yale (64.3)IvyA81-60L0%0.0
2-28Brown (236.9)IvyA62-80W100%0.0
3-6Cornell (215.5)IvyH0-066%4.3
3-7Columbia (175.2)IvyH0-055%1.2
3-10Penn (270.3)IvyA0-062%3.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Princeton's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Princeton's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Princeton.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
PrincetonIvy26.2126.3146.3047.26-1.94-1.44
ColumbiaIvy2.724.2750.0050.780.000.07
CornellIvy2.704.2542.3142.89-0.41-0.60
PennIvy2.654.2529.1729.71-1.11-1.72
YaleIvy4.404.2268.0066.441.581.39
BrownIvy4.404.2244.0041.76-0.53-0.70
DartmouthIvy4.374.1950.0050.760.000.06
HarvardIvy4.364.1872.7373.281.981.95
Saint Peter'sMAAC2.161.9645.1645.16-0.21-0.19
LafayettePat2.071.8857.1457.140.300.27
Stony BrookAE2.001.8568.9768.970.760.70
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC2.021.8422.2222.22-1.12-1.02
RiderMAAC2.021.8470.0070.000.810.74
George MasonA101.961.7825.9325.19-0.94-0.88
UTEPCUSA1.961.7667.8668.610.700.66
Incarnate WordSlnd1.961.7559.0959.340.360.33
Norfolk St.MEAC1.951.7560.7160.710.420.38
CaliforniaP121.921.7255.1753.980.200.14
LibertyBSth1.921.7214.8114.81-1.35-1.21
LipscombASun1.921.7240.7440.74-0.36-0.32
San DiegoWCC1.921.7246.4346.43-0.14-0.12
San Jose St.MWC1.921.720.000.12-1.92-1.72
Wake ForestACC1.921.7241.3841.21-0.33-0.30
BryantNEC0.370.3153.3353.330.020.02
VermontAE0.290.2458.6258.620.050.04
WagnerNEC0.210.2431.0331.03-0.08-0.09
UMass LowellAE0.240.2439.2939.29-0.05-0.05
HartfordAE0.270.2344.8344.83-0.03-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.240.2141.3841.38-0.04-0.04
AmericanPat0.210.2151.6151.610.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.170.2136.6736.67-0.05-0.06
Sacred HeartNEC0.240.2145.1645.16-0.02-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.170.2116.6716.67-0.11-0.14
CanisiusMAAC0.190.2055.1755.170.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.170.1967.7467.740.060.07
Holy CrossPat0.220.1944.8344.83-0.02-0.02
ColgatePat0.140.1848.3948.39-0.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.180.1858.6257.790.030.03
New HampshireAE0.210.1860.7160.710.040.04
MaristMAAC0.160.1722.5822.58-0.09-0.09
MonmouthMAAC0.160.1754.8454.840.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.160.1726.6726.67-0.07-0.08
QuinnipiacMAAC0.190.1750.0050.000.000.00
SienaMAAC0.160.1736.6736.67-0.04-0.05
IonaMAAC0.190.1777.4277.420.100.09
VirginiaACC0.180.1596.5595.350.170.14
BucknellPat0.140.1558.0658.060.020.02
LehighPat0.140.1551.7251.720.000.01
NJITind0.180.1556.0056.000.020.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.170.1516.1316.13-0.12-0.10
ProvidenceBE0.170.1570.0069.390.070.06
WashingtonP120.160.1451.7250.300.010.00
ManhattanMAAC0.160.1455.1755.170.020.01
FairfieldMAAC0.150.1422.5822.58-0.08-0.07
ConnecticutAmer0.110.1258.6258.020.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.140.1226.6726.67-0.07-0.06
North FloridaASun0.140.1263.3363.330.040.03
HofstraCAA0.100.1261.2961.290.020.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.110.1244.8343.73-0.01-0.02
Arizona St.P120.110.1253.3354.210.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.140.1221.4321.43-0.08-0.07
NavyPat0.100.1238.7138.71-0.02-0.03
Penn St.B100.110.1250.0049.040.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.100.1264.2964.290.030.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.140.1244.4444.44-0.02-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.1244.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.130.1250.0050.000.000.00
MaineAE0.140.1210.0010.00-0.11-0.10
HowardMEAC0.100.1246.4346.43-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.100.1250.0049.660.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.130.1223.3322.92-0.07-0.06
Santa ClaraWCC0.130.1239.2939.29-0.03-0.03
AlbanyAE0.140.1273.3373.330.060.05
Washington St.P120.130.1241.3841.25-0.02-0.02
SyracuseACC0.100.1260.0059.100.020.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.120.1050.0050.340.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.120.1025.0024.72-0.06-0.05
MassachusettsA100.110.1056.6755.620.020.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.110.1026.9227.45-0.05-0.04
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0937.9338.79-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.100.0939.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.100.0975.0075.650.050.05
Robert MorrisNEC0.100.0954.8454.840.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.110.0957.1458.010.020.01
Colorado St.MWC0.100.0982.7681.940.070.06
LIU BrooklynNEC0.100.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.100.0957.1457.140.010.01
PortlandWCC0.100.0950.0050.000.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.100.0957.1456.680.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.100.0946.4345.04-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.100.0926.6726.67-0.05-0.04
NevadaMWC0.100.0925.9325.08-0.05-0.04
WyomingMWC0.100.0971.4370.300.040.04
Rhode IslandA100.110.0970.3771.000.040.04
Kent St.MAC0.100.0965.5265.400.030.03
FloridaSEC0.100.0950.0048.480.00-0.00
RichmondA100.100.0960.0061.160.020.02
UCLAP120.100.0961.2961.290.020.02
ArizonaP120.100.0890.0090.050.080.07
Georgia TechACC0.100.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.080.0725.9325.36-0.04-0.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.040.0730.4330.64-0.02-0.03
LamarSlnd0.080.0742.3142.31-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.080.0785.1984.850.060.05
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0755.5656.790.010.01
HoustonAmer0.080.0737.9338.68-0.02-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.080.0764.5264.520.020.02
New OrleansSlnd0.070.0730.4329.84-0.03-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0627.5929.40-0.03-0.03
KentuckySEC0.040.06100.0099.900.040.06
Air ForceMWC0.070.0640.7440.74-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.070.0665.5265.520.020.02
CampbellBSth0.070.0624.1424.14-0.04-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0661.5461.540.020.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.070.0665.3865.380.020.02
DelawareCAA0.070.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0665.5265.520.020.02
IPFWSum0.070.0650.0050.000.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0624.1424.14-0.04-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
MercerSC0.070.0651.7251.720.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0644.4444.65-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.070.0621.4321.43-0.04-0.04
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0651.7251.720.000.00
StetsonASun0.070.0621.4321.43-0.04-0.04
TempleAmer0.040.0670.0069.660.020.02
UNLVMWC0.040.0651.7253.220.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.070.0665.5265.520.020.02
Utah St.MWC0.070.0660.7160.060.020.01
VillanovaBE0.040.0693.3393.140.030.05
WinthropBSth0.070.0653.8553.850.010.00
New MexicoMWC0.070.0648.2848.71-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0675.8676.600.040.03
ArmyPat0.070.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.040.0668.9769.170.010.02
BYUWCC0.070.0672.4172.410.030.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0621.4321.43-0.04-0.03
DavidsonA100.070.0677.7878.110.040.03
DrexelCAA0.040.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.066.906.90-0.06-0.05
George WashingtonA100.070.0663.3363.730.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.070.0693.3393.330.060.05
HamptonMEAC0.070.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.070.0663.3362.470.020.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0623.3323.33-0.04-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.070.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
NorthwesternB100.070.0650.0048.750.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.070.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0641.3843.04-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.070.0634.4833.47-0.02-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0671.4371.430.030.03
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.040.0646.4346.55-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.030.0670.0070.800.010.02
West VirginiaB120.070.0673.3373.210.030.03
ColoradoP120.070.0648.2848.75-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.070.0683.3383.560.040.04
TexasB120.070.0660.0060.890.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.070.0633.3333.07-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0665.5265.880.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0679.3179.430.040.03
XavierBE0.070.0660.0060.270.010.01
RutgersB100.060.0633.3332.68-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0610.3410.34-0.05-0.05
KansasB120.060.0680.0078.510.040.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0676.6776.670.040.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.0664.2965.480.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.070.0644.4443.97-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0634.6233.72-0.01-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
UMBCAE0.060.0613.3313.33-0.05-0.04
UTSACUSA0.070.0642.3143.29-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.0662.9661.330.020.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0614.8114.59-0.05-0.04
DukeACC0.060.0690.0088.610.050.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0660.0060.250.010.01
StanfordP120.060.0662.0760.280.020.01
USCP120.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.040.047.147.09-0.04-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.040.0437.5039.78-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.040.0444.8344.45-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.040.0454.1755.350.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.040.0476.9274.970.020.02
TulsaAmer0.040.0475.0073.120.020.02
UMKCWAC0.040.0439.2940.13-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.040.0325.0025.13-0.02-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
FurmanSC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
High PointBSth0.030.0370.3770.370.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0341.3841.54-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0327.5927.73-0.02-0.01
SeattleWAC0.040.0348.0047.69-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.030.0368.9767.090.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.040.0380.7779.950.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
BaylorB120.030.0372.4173.250.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0331.0332.31-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0325.8125.81-0.02-0.01
DaytonA100.030.0379.3178.680.020.02
DuquesneA100.030.0337.0436.18-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.030.0329.6329.20-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0358.0659.050.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0377.7877.780.020.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0355.1755.550.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0390.0090.000.030.02
OklahomaB120.030.0368.9768.870.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0327.5927.69-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0360.0060.470.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0355.5656.340.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0343.3344.74-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0370.0070.110.010.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0342.8642.57-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.030.0332.1431.48-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0348.2848.63-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.030.0351.7252.180.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.030.0380.0079.770.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.030.0344.0043.17-0.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0337.0437.87-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0355.1753.650.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0370.3770.210.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.030.0376.6775.460.020.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0363.3363.700.010.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0366.6766.280.010.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0355.1755.990.000.00
MontanaBSky0.030.0357.6958.450.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.030.0370.0069.450.010.01
OregonP120.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
PittsburghACC0.030.0360.0059.670.010.01
SamfordSC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0346.4346.45-0.00-0.00
UtahP120.030.0378.5779.000.020.02
WisconsinB100.030.0390.0088.730.030.02
Seton HallBE0.030.0355.1753.880.000.00