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Through games of Feb 11, 2016.


Princeton

Conference:Ivy
Expected RPI:51.7
Current RPI:56
Expected SOS:138
Current SOS:140
Current Record:13-5
Expected Record:20-7
Current Conf Record:4-1
Expected Conf Record:11-3
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:15-1
Current OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:35
Expected OOC SOS:73



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-530.311.42%
21-640.730.04%
20-753.732.17%
19-866.318.79%
18-978.96.10%
17-1093.41.26%
16-11112.30.20%
15-12135.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Princeton.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Rider (230.5)MAACA56-64W100%0.0
11-21Saint Peter's (225.7)MAACH75-72W100%0.0
11-25Lafayette (323.1)PatH104-52W100%0.0
11-30Fairleigh Dickinson (215.2)NECH91-61W100%0.0
12-5Stony Brook (41.9)AEA91-77L0%0.0
12-8Saint Joseph's (26.8)A10A62-50L0%0.0
12-12Lipscomb (267.6)ASunA64-78W100%0.0
12-17Liberty (264.8)BSthH77-72W100%0.0
12-19Maryland (5.3)B10N82-61L0%0.0
12-22Bucknell (181.8)PatH89-77W100%0.0
12-29Miami FL (10.7)ACCA76-64L0%0.0
1-3Hampton (195.7)MEACA59-89W100%0.0
1-5Norfolk St. (207.6)MEACA74-83W100%0.0
1-9Penn (276.4)IvyA71-73W100%0.0
1-29Brown (291.8)IvyA59-83W100%0.0
1-30Yale (56.9)IvyA79-75L0%0.0
2-5Harvard (211.8)IvyH83-62W100%0.0
2-6Dartmouth (292.6)IvyH83-70W100%0.0
2-12Cornell (207.9)IvyA0-085%11.2
2-13Columbia (124.9)IvyA0-059%2.4
2-19Yale (56.9)IvyH0-058%2.3
2-20Brown (291.8)IvyH0-095%18.2
2-26Columbia (124.9)IvyH0-080%9.0
2-27Cornell (207.9)IvyH0-095%17.8
3-4Harvard (211.8)IvyA0-068%5.1
3-5Dartmouth (292.6)IvyA0-083%10.6
3-8Penn (276.4)IvyH0-093%16.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Princeton's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Princeton's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Princeton.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
PrincetonIvy26.1426.3678.7578.9915.0315.28
ColumbiaIvy0.474.6266.6767.780.161.64
CornellIvy0.414.5842.1142.65-0.06-0.67
PennIvy3.184.5741.1840.44-0.56-0.87
BrownIvy3.064.5533.3333.30-1.02-1.52
HarvardIvy3.004.5236.8440.31-0.79-0.88
DartmouthIvy2.994.5133.3333.55-1.00-1.48
YaleIvy3.004.5172.2274.931.332.25
LafayettePat3.042.1221.7422.45-1.72-1.17
Saint Peter'sMAAC3.082.1142.8644.92-0.44-0.21
Saint Joseph'sA102.851.9882.6180.661.861.22
BucknellPat2.841.9854.5556.980.260.28
RiderMAAC2.961.9541.6743.44-0.49-0.26
Norfolk St.MEAC2.841.9245.4552.45-0.260.09
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC2.901.9254.5555.710.260.22
HamptonMEAC2.841.9261.9063.630.680.52
Stony BrookAE2.781.9281.8282.361.771.24
MarylandB102.831.8886.9683.102.091.25
LibertyBSth2.781.8536.3637.88-0.76-0.45
LipscombASun2.781.8529.1731.58-1.16-0.68
Miami FLACC2.781.8581.8276.811.770.99
FairfieldMAAC0.380.3654.1754.090.030.03
BryantNEC0.410.3424.0024.92-0.21-0.17
HowardMEAC0.190.3336.3638.97-0.05-0.07
LehighPat0.310.3039.1342.83-0.07-0.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.280.2712.5013.27-0.21-0.20
VermontAE0.280.2752.0054.860.010.03
HartfordAE0.390.2724.0024.55-0.20-0.14
Holy CrossPat0.380.2641.6739.59-0.06-0.06
CanisiusMAAC0.250.2642.3144.53-0.04-0.03
MaristMAAC0.330.2621.7424.25-0.19-0.14
NJITASun0.300.2656.0055.640.040.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.200.2326.9228.60-0.09-0.10
SienaMAAC0.240.2365.3864.970.070.07
NiagaraMAAC0.250.2224.0024.61-0.13-0.11
La SalleA100.310.2219.0520.30-0.19-0.13
AlbanyAE0.130.2173.0873.780.060.10
BinghamtonAE0.200.2124.0026.44-0.10-0.10
MaineAE0.210.2132.0031.16-0.07-0.08
New HampshireAE0.210.2159.0956.870.040.03
AmericanPat0.300.2029.1731.19-0.13-0.07
ColgatePat0.120.2043.4844.90-0.02-0.02
NavyPat0.200.2064.0064.460.050.06
LongwoodBSth0.130.2021.7424.60-0.08-0.10
Boston UniversityPat0.250.2056.0056.510.030.03
MonmouthMAAC0.060.1980.0081.160.040.12
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.240.1929.1733.75-0.10-0.06
ManhattanMAAC0.120.1945.4543.23-0.01-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.300.1958.3357.250.050.03
SMUAmer0.210.1786.9682.920.150.11
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.179.0912.26-0.06-0.13
Sacred HeartNEC0.190.1733.3336.31-0.06-0.05
ProvidenceBE0.200.1672.0069.130.090.06
Loyola MDPat0.240.1633.3335.18-0.08-0.05
St. Francis NYNEC0.300.1640.0043.49-0.06-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.250.1648.0048.60-0.01-0.00
ArmyPat0.300.1654.1754.290.020.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.120.1619.0525.90-0.07-0.08
UMass LowellAE0.120.1437.5037.69-0.03-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.200.1331.8236.11-0.07-0.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.190.1350.0051.280.000.00
TempleAmer0.200.1365.2262.370.060.03
VillanovaBE0.200.1387.5086.850.150.10
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.180.1342.3146.12-0.03-0.01
WoffordSC0.070.1345.8348.12-0.01-0.00
Notre DameACC0.180.1370.8367.930.080.05
IonaMAAC0.240.1360.8760.670.050.03
MassachusettsA100.130.1343.4842.40-0.02-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.170.1334.7834.97-0.05-0.04
NorthwesternB100.120.1364.0062.090.030.03
Seton HallBE0.140.1070.8368.080.060.04
USCP120.130.1078.2673.130.070.05
WinthropBSth0.180.1066.6763.780.060.03
DukeACC0.130.1075.0071.840.070.04
GeorgetownBE0.130.1056.0052.870.020.01
Georgia TechACC0.060.1054.1752.000.010.00
IllinoisB100.070.1045.8344.07-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.060.1072.7367.600.030.04
SyracuseACC0.060.1068.0064.090.020.03
DrexelCAA0.140.1013.0416.42-0.10-0.07
George MasonA100.140.1033.3333.63-0.05-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.120.1014.2920.64-0.09-0.06
Boston CollegeACC0.130.1029.1726.69-0.05-0.05
St. Francis PANEC0.180.1052.1751.830.010.00
DelawareCAA0.060.1025.0024.93-0.03-0.05
Charleston SouthernBSth0.180.1027.2727.80-0.08-0.04
WagnerNEC0.120.1060.8762.520.030.02
George WashingtonA100.180.0975.0071.960.090.04
FordhamA100.180.0952.3850.690.010.00
Virginia TechACC0.060.0952.0048.920.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0766.6767.670.020.02
StanfordP120.070.0747.6244.06-0.00-0.01
UMBCAE0.120.0723.0825.87-0.07-0.03
WashingtonP120.080.0762.5060.140.020.01
Appalachian St.SB0.120.0725.0028.15-0.06-0.03
William & MaryCAA0.120.0768.1867.110.040.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.120.0725.0025.08-0.06-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.120.0729.1733.11-0.05-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.120.0725.0033.23-0.06-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.120.079.5212.09-0.10-0.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.120.0738.1037.67-0.03-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.120.0752.1754.130.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0743.4845.21-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.120.0757.1459.870.020.01
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0723.8125.49-0.03-0.03
RadfordBSth0.060.0752.1754.100.000.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0762.5063.450.020.02
AuburnSEC0.070.0739.1335.45-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.070.0768.0070.260.030.03
KansasB120.070.0782.6179.200.050.04
OklahomaB120.070.0786.9682.620.050.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.120.0650.0048.950.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.120.0650.0046.770.00-0.00
RutgersB100.120.0621.7420.34-0.07-0.04
Wake ForestACC0.120.0641.6739.90-0.02-0.01
BelmontOVC0.110.0668.0066.640.040.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0650.0052.870.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.110.0647.8348.57-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.000.0658.3356.290.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0625.0026.38-0.03-0.03
North FloridaASun0.060.0662.5064.120.010.02
South CarolinaSEC0.120.0686.9680.420.090.04
StetsonASun0.060.0622.7327.39-0.03-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.110.0621.7422.42-0.06-0.04
VCUA100.120.0670.8371.050.050.03
Old DominionCUSA0.120.0658.3363.180.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.060.0666.6763.300.020.02
MichiganB100.060.0670.8366.750.020.02
NebraskaB100.120.0652.0050.760.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.060.0683.3378.380.040.04
Ohio St.B100.120.0660.0055.560.020.01
PurdueB100.060.0680.0077.910.030.03
VirginiaACC0.060.0683.3378.460.040.04
WisconsinB100.060.0662.5057.000.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.110.0621.7422.75-0.06-0.03
FloridaSEC0.120.0666.6766.320.040.02
Illinois St.MVC0.120.0656.0054.080.010.00
St. BonaventureA100.060.0672.7370.410.030.02
ColoradoP120.060.0370.8365.580.030.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0382.6181.130.040.02
HofstraCAA0.060.0366.6766.770.020.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0345.4549.05-0.01-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0318.1821.11-0.04-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0358.3359.970.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0345.4546.08-0.01-0.00
CampbellBSth0.060.0331.8232.08-0.02-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0357.1457.670.010.01
FurmanSC0.060.0356.0054.430.010.00
LamarSlnd0.060.0330.0029.13-0.02-0.01
TowsonCAA0.060.0362.5057.730.020.01
TulaneAmer0.060.0336.0034.84-0.02-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0331.8232.68-0.02-0.01
AkronMAC0.060.0382.6181.140.040.02
AlabamaSEC0.060.0360.8755.980.010.00
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0340.0042.85-0.01-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0383.3383.710.040.02
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0372.0071.570.030.01
DenverSum0.060.0352.0049.300.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.060.0333.3334.02-0.02-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0372.0073.080.030.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.060.0326.0927.89-0.03-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0350.0049.480.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.060.0334.7833.02-0.02-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0360.8762.470.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.060.0331.8235.12-0.02-0.01
OhioMAC0.060.0363.6461.470.020.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0333.3332.04-0.02-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0368.1865.170.020.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0365.2264.340.020.01
UC IrvineBW0.060.0369.5770.020.020.01
UTEPCUSA0.060.0354.1754.200.010.00
ButlerBE0.060.0370.8369.000.030.01
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0337.5042.32-0.02-0.00
ClemsonACC0.060.0358.3358.400.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0360.8758.900.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0370.8370.130.020.01
IndianaB100.000.0380.0075.690.000.02
IowaB100.060.0379.1778.880.030.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0360.0062.250.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.0379.1775.990.000.02
MarshallCUSA0.060.0350.0051.110.000.00
Michigan St.B100.060.0380.0081.560.030.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0325.0027.26-0.00-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0343.4843.77-0.01-0.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.060.0314.2915.44-0.04-0.02
UtahP120.060.0370.8368.520.030.01
BuffaloMAC0.060.0356.5257.060.010.00
DavidsonA100.000.0361.9058.170.000.00
DaytonA100.000.0386.9682.160.000.02
DuquesneA100.000.0360.8756.270.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0350.0049.760.00-0.00
RichmondA100.060.0356.5255.820.010.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0334.7832.39-0.00-0.01