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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Princeton

Conference:Ivy
Expected RPI:191.0
Current RPI:191
Expected SOS:210
Current SOS:210
Current Record:15-14
Expected Record:15-14
Current Conf Record:9-5
Expected Conf Record:9-5
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-4
Current OOC Record:6-9
Expected OOC Record:6-9
Expected OOC RPI:279
Expected OOC SOS:280



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-14191.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Princeton.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Rider (140.0)MAACH64-58W100%0.0
11-16George Mason (221.0)A10A63-60L0%0.0
11-19Lafayette (122.0)PatA83-66L0%0.0
11-22Incarnate Word (160.0)SlndH68-79L0%0.0
11-27UTEP (78.0)CUSAN62-56L0%0.0
11-28San Diego (157.0)WCCN75-65L0%0.0
11-30San Jose St. (336.0)MWCN54-69W100%0.0
12-3Fairleigh Dickinson (312.0)NECA89-85L0%0.0
12-6Stony Brook (107.0)AEH77-64W100%0.0
12-10Saint Peter's (233.0)MAACA60-46L0%0.0
12-13California (95.0)P12A67-57L0%0.0
12-19Lipscomb (271.0)ASunH77-55W100%0.0
12-22Liberty (347.0)BSthH65-47W100%0.0
12-31Wake Forest (150.0)ACCA80-66L0%0.0
1-6Norfolk St. (167.0)MEACH71-61W100%0.0
1-10Penn (254.0)IvyH78-74W100%0.0
1-30Harvard (52.0)IvyH72-75L0%0.0
1-31Dartmouth (186.0)IvyH64-53W100%0.0
2-6Columbia (196.0)IvyA62-74W100%0.0
2-7Cornell (227.0)IvyA68-60L0%0.0
2-13Brown (248.0)IvyH75-64W100%0.0
2-14Yale (64.0)IvyH73-81L0%0.0
2-20Dartmouth (186.0)IvyA56-63W100%0.0
2-21Harvard (52.0)IvyA63-55L0%0.0
2-27Yale (64.0)IvyA81-60L0%0.0
2-28Brown (248.0)IvyA62-80W100%0.0
3-6Cornell (227.0)IvyH66-53W100%0.0
3-7Columbia (196.0)IvyH85-83W100%0.0
3-10Penn (254.0)IvyA52-73W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Princeton's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Princeton's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Princeton.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
PrincetonIvy26.2926.2952.0752.071.091.09
YaleIvy4.284.2864.2964.291.221.22
ColumbiaIvy4.264.2648.0048.00-0.17-0.17
CornellIvy4.244.2440.7440.74-0.78-0.78
PennIvy4.234.2334.6234.62-1.30-1.30
HarvardIvy4.234.2372.0072.001.861.86
BrownIvy4.214.2140.7440.74-0.78-0.78
DartmouthIvy4.184.1853.8553.850.320.32
Saint Peter'sMAAC1.981.9845.4545.45-0.18-0.18
LafayettePat1.871.8760.0060.000.370.37
RiderMAAC1.861.8667.7467.740.660.66
Stony BrookAE1.851.8567.7467.740.660.66
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC1.841.8422.2222.22-1.02-1.02
George MasonA101.781.7824.1424.14-0.92-0.92
UTEPCUSA1.761.7667.7467.740.620.62
Incarnate WordSlnd1.751.7556.5256.520.230.23
Norfolk St.MEAC1.751.7560.0060.000.350.35
CaliforniaP121.721.7253.1253.120.110.11
LibertyBSth1.721.7214.8114.81-1.21-1.21
LipscombASun1.721.7240.7440.74-0.32-0.32
San DiegoWCC1.721.7244.8344.83-0.18-0.18
San Jose St.MWC1.721.720.000.00-1.72-1.72
Wake ForestACC1.721.7238.7138.71-0.39-0.39
BryantNEC0.300.3051.6151.610.010.01
VermontAE0.260.2656.6756.670.040.04
WagnerNEC0.240.2431.0331.03-0.09-0.09
UMass LowellAE0.230.2339.2939.29-0.05-0.05
AmericanPat0.230.2351.5251.520.010.01
HartfordAE0.230.2344.8344.83-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.210.2145.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.210.2136.6736.67-0.05-0.05
BinghamtonAE0.200.2016.6716.67-0.13-0.13
Boston UniversityPat0.200.2041.3841.38-0.03-0.03
CanisiusMAAC0.190.1953.3353.330.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.180.1866.6766.670.060.06
ColgatePat0.180.1846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.180.1844.8344.83-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.180.1858.0658.060.030.03
New HampshireAE0.170.1758.6258.620.030.03
BucknellPat0.170.1756.2556.250.020.02
MaristMAAC0.170.1721.8821.88-0.09-0.09
MonmouthMAAC0.170.1754.5554.550.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.170.1726.6726.67-0.08-0.08
SienaMAAC0.160.1635.4835.48-0.05-0.05
QuinnipiacMAAC0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
IonaMAAC0.160.1676.4776.470.080.08
ManhattanMAAC0.160.1659.3859.380.030.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.150.1516.1316.13-0.10-0.10
NJITind0.150.1556.0056.000.020.02
LehighPat0.150.1551.7251.720.010.01
VirginiaACC0.150.1590.6290.620.120.12
ProvidenceBE0.140.1466.6766.670.050.05
AlbanyAE0.140.1475.0075.000.070.07
WashingtonP120.140.1451.6151.610.000.00
Washington St.P120.140.1441.9441.94-0.02-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.130.1322.5822.58-0.07-0.07
LongwoodBSth0.120.1228.1228.12-0.05-0.05
North FloridaASun0.120.1264.5264.520.040.04
ConnecticutAmer0.120.1258.8258.820.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.120.1221.4321.43-0.07-0.07
Penn St.B100.120.1252.9452.940.010.01
RadfordBSth0.120.1262.0762.070.030.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.120.1242.8642.86-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
NavyPat0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.120.1248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Arizona St.P120.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
La SalleA100.120.1251.5251.520.000.00
MaineAE0.120.1210.0010.00-0.09-0.09
Santa ClaraWCC0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.120.1244.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.110.1122.5822.58-0.06-0.06
SyracuseACC0.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
ArizonaP120.110.1191.1891.180.090.09
Grand CanyonWAC0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.100.1026.9226.92-0.05-0.05
MassachusettsA100.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.090.0939.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0940.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.090.0925.9325.93-0.04-0.04
Boise St.MWC0.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
St. BonaventureA100.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.090.0981.2581.250.060.06
LIU BrooklynNEC0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.090.0970.0070.000.040.04
Fresno St.MWC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
NevadaMWC0.090.0924.1424.14-0.05-0.05
WyomingMWC0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
Virginia TechACC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
FloridaSEC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
RichmondA100.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
HamptonMEAC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UCLAP120.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.070.0742.3142.31-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0786.6786.670.050.05
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0630.7730.77-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.060.06100.00100.000.060.06
NortheasternCAA0.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
CampbellBSth0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0659.2659.260.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
DelawareCAA0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0665.5265.520.020.02
IPFWSum0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
MercerSC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0621.4321.43-0.04-0.04
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
StetsonASun0.060.0621.4321.43-0.04-0.04
TempleAmer0.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
UNLVMWC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
Utah St.MWC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
VillanovaBE0.060.0694.1294.120.050.05
WinthropBSth0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
BuffaloMAC0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
DrexelCAA0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Notre DameACC0.060.0685.2985.290.040.04
BYUWCC0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
DavidsonA100.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
FordhamA100.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.060.0693.9493.940.050.05
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
PacificWCC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.060.0674.2974.290.030.03
ColoradoP120.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.066.906.90-0.05-0.05
West VirginiaB120.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
RutgersB100.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0610.3410.34-0.04-0.04
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0677.4277.420.030.03
XavierBE0.060.0661.7661.760.010.01
ArmyPat0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
KansasB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
DukeACC0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
FIUCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
UMBCAE0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
UTSACUSA0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.04-0.04
StanfordP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
USCP120.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.040.046.906.90-0.03-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.040.0440.7440.74-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.040.0441.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.040.0455.5655.560.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.040.0472.4172.410.020.02
TulsaAmer0.040.0470.9770.970.020.02
UMKCWAC0.040.0438.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
FurmanSC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
High PointBSth0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.030.0379.3179.310.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0327.2727.27-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
DuquesneA100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0390.9190.910.020.02
OklahomaB120.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0375.8675.860.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.030.0368.5768.570.010.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
SamfordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
MontanaBSky0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
OregonP120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
UtahP120.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
WisconsinB100.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
Seton HallBE0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00