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Through games of Dec 18, 2014.


Princeton

Conference:Ivy
Expected RPI:236.6
Current RPI:288
Expected SOS:157
Current SOS:233
Current Record:3-8
Expected Record:11-18
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:6-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-5
Current OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC Record:5-10
Expected OOC RPI:267
Expected OOC SOS:210



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-1191.00.01%
17-12111.80.15%
16-13132.60.53%
15-14154.92.07%
14-15173.86.39%
13-16195.611.94%
12-17216.917.81%
11-18238.320.57%
10-19258.318.67%
9-20276.112.66%
8-21291.16.20%
7-22303.92.21%
6-23311.80.62%
5-24319.60.14%
4-25319.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Princeton.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Rider (188.2)MAACH64-58W100%0.0
11-16George Mason (222.5)A10A63-60L0%0.0
11-19Lafayette (90.4)PatA83-66L0%0.0
11-22Incarnate Word (116.4)SlndH68-79L0%0.0
11-27UTEP (62.7)CUSAN62-56L0%0.0
11-28San Diego (92.4)WCCN75-65L0%0.0
11-30San Jose St. (327.7)MWCN54-69W100%0.0
12-3Fairleigh Dickinson (257.1)NECA89-85L0%0.0
12-6Stony Brook (147.2)AEH77-64W100%0.0
12-10Saint Peter's (224.5)MAACA60-46L0%0.0
12-13California (56.7)P12A67-57L0%0.0
12-19Lipscomb (239.9)ASunH0-070%6.2
12-22Liberty (322.3)BSthH0-082%10.6
12-31Wake Forest (156.3)ACCA0-023%-8.8
1-6Norfolk St. (178.5)MEACH0-064%4.2
1-10Penn (270.1)IvyH0-072%6.9
1-30Harvard (50.6)IvyH0-030%-6.2
1-31Dartmouth (184.4)IvyH0-057%2.0
2-6Columbia (100.8)IvyA0-015%-12.2
2-7Cornell (181.7)IvyA0-030%-6.2
2-13Brown (246.3)IvyH0-074%7.7
2-14Yale (60.2)IvyH0-039%-3.2
2-20Dartmouth (184.4)IvyA0-028%-6.7
2-21Harvard (50.6)IvyA0-010%-14.9
2-27Yale (60.2)IvyA0-015%-11.9
2-28Brown (246.3)IvyA0-047%-1.0
3-6Cornell (181.7)IvyH0-059%2.5
3-7Columbia (100.8)IvyH0-038%-3.5
3-10Penn (270.1)IvyA0-044%-1.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Princeton's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Princeton's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Princeton.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
PrincetonIvy28.0526.3225.5835.56-13.70-7.60
ColumbiaIvy0.584.2762.5064.090.141.20
CornellIvy0.284.2555.5647.690.03-0.20
PennIvy0.474.2537.5032.31-0.12-1.50
YaleIvy0.284.2272.7366.780.131.42
BrownIvy0.214.2240.0033.36-0.04-1.40
DartmouthIvy0.004.1944.4446.77-0.00-0.27
HarvardIvy0.004.1885.7172.360.001.87
Saint Peter'sMAAC4.551.9630.0045.37-1.82-0.18
LafayettePat4.871.8871.4368.702.090.70
Stony BrookAE4.551.8537.5056.69-1.140.25
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC4.831.8516.6738.99-3.22-0.41
RiderMAAC4.551.8454.5554.560.410.17
George MasonA104.551.7814.2923.29-3.25-0.95
UTEPCUSA5.111.7662.5071.691.280.76
Incarnate WordSlnd4.801.7566.6773.231.600.81
Norfolk St.MEAC0.211.7550.0057.060.000.25
CaliforniaP124.551.7288.8965.583.540.54
LibertyBSth0.001.7225.0035.41-0.00-0.50
LipscombASun0.001.7225.0043.15-0.00-0.24
San DiegoWCC4.551.7250.0055.770.000.20
San Jose St.MWC4.551.720.008.13-4.55-1.44
Wake ForestACC0.001.7250.0036.690.00-0.46
BryantNEC0.000.3128.5747.24-0.00-0.02
VermontAE0.000.2544.4457.85-0.000.04
WagnerNEC0.280.2514.2933.54-0.20-0.08
UMass LowellAE0.000.2455.5654.360.000.02
HartfordAE0.400.2450.0051.050.000.00
AmericanPat0.000.2160.0065.400.000.07
Loyola MDPat0.000.2133.3327.70-0.00-0.10
Sacred HeartNEC0.280.2150.0058.360.000.04
CanisiusMAAC0.460.2055.5661.390.050.05
Holy CrossPat0.000.1957.1453.130.000.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.1922.2240.44-0.00-0.04
Boston UniversityPat0.210.1933.3342.19-0.07-0.03
ColgatePat0.000.1820.0043.08-0.00-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.000.1875.0060.400.000.04
BinghamtonAE0.000.180.0011.87-0.00-0.14
New HampshireAE0.000.1857.1464.620.000.05
MaristMAAC0.000.1710.0018.61-0.00-0.11
MonmouthMAAC0.000.1744.4456.51-0.000.02
NiagaraMAAC0.210.1714.2930.74-0.15-0.07
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.1744.4449.65-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.190.1737.5051.81-0.050.01
IonaMAAC0.190.1766.6772.340.060.08
BucknellPat0.000.1540.0036.29-0.00-0.04
LehighPat0.190.1537.5047.71-0.05-0.01
NJITind0.000.1536.3640.98-0.00-0.03
VirginiaACC0.000.15100.0085.310.000.11
Central ConnecticutNEC0.190.1522.2230.85-0.11-0.06
ProvidenceBE0.250.1572.7353.260.110.01
WashingtonP120.510.15100.0071.820.510.06
ManhattanMAAC0.280.1422.2237.50-0.16-0.04
Austin PeayOVC0.000.1322.2230.99-0.00-0.05
LongwoodBSth0.000.1320.0026.57-0.00-0.06
ConnecticutAmer0.000.1250.0057.510.000.02
HofstraCAA0.250.1277.7878.540.140.07
RadfordBSth0.000.1250.0055.810.000.01
NavyPat0.000.1220.0021.58-0.00-0.07
Saint Joseph'sA100.320.1255.5640.500.04-0.02
Arizona St.P120.000.1260.0053.820.000.01
MaineAE0.000.1211.1121.08-0.00-0.07
Penn St.B100.000.1290.9153.850.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.190.1218.1835.99-0.12-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1240.0046.73-0.00-0.01
La SalleA100.210.1250.0049.960.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.1237.5037.96-0.00-0.03
AlbanyAE0.000.1233.3348.89-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.000.1230.0043.91-0.00-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.440.1250.0040.880.00-0.02
Washington St.P120.250.1240.0028.86-0.05-0.05
SyracuseACC0.230.1266.6757.800.080.02
FairfieldMAAC0.000.1144.4439.74-0.00-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.570.1036.3644.53-0.15-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.100.0018.94-0.00-0.06
North FloridaASun0.000.1044.4456.91-0.000.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.1050.0052.710.000.01
MassachusettsA100.000.1060.0055.630.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0966.6742.100.00-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.230.0936.3633.67-0.06-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.280.0930.0039.44-0.11-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0914.2945.19-0.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.210.0975.0068.680.100.03
Colorado St.MWC0.250.09100.0078.050.250.05
LIU BrooklynNEC0.250.0933.3344.71-0.08-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0975.0065.410.000.03
PepperdineWCC0.250.0975.0058.430.130.02
PortlandWCC0.250.0966.6748.410.08-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.670.0962.5054.980.170.01
Fresno St.MWC0.230.0930.0029.80-0.09-0.04
NevadaMWC0.230.0911.1125.02-0.18-0.04
WyomingMWC0.230.0977.7873.370.130.04
Rhode IslandA100.000.0962.5073.190.000.04
FloridaSEC0.000.0960.0064.930.000.03
RichmondA100.000.0955.5657.090.000.01
ArizonaP120.000.09100.0080.590.000.05
UCLAP120.210.0972.7357.280.090.01
Georgia TechACC0.190.0877.7851.350.110.00
LamarSlnd0.000.0714.2934.12-0.00-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0766.6777.690.000.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0725.0028.68-0.00-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0716.6719.68-0.00-0.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.0720.0039.70-0.00-0.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0760.0062.970.000.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0775.0071.730.000.03
HoustonAmer0.000.0771.4348.860.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.000.0766.6757.860.000.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0725.0033.17-0.00-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.000.0760.0064.620.000.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0710.0018.58-0.00-0.04
StetsonASun0.000.0710.0027.42-0.00-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.210.070.0038.46-0.21-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.250.0711.1144.04-0.20-0.01
CampbellBSth0.000.0625.0044.59-0.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0642.8649.98-0.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0657.1470.590.000.03
KentuckySEC0.000.06100.0094.790.000.06
PresbyterianBSth0.000.060.008.63-0.00-0.05
WinthropBSth0.000.0628.5747.31-0.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.000.060.007.39-0.00-0.05
Air ForceMWC0.000.0657.1461.670.000.01
ArmyPat0.000.0677.7868.780.000.02
IPFWSum0.000.0657.1456.900.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0655.5638.600.00-0.01
MercerSC0.000.0637.5042.45-0.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0650.0032.620.00-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0650.0062.270.000.02
TempleAmer0.000.0663.6455.600.000.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0675.0050.750.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.0655.5650.970.000.00
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0082.080.000.04
ColoradoP120.000.0666.6758.240.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.210.060.0016.85-0.21-0.04
TexasB120.230.0690.0081.860.180.04
New MexicoMWC0.280.0670.0058.600.110.01
San Diego St.MWC0.210.0670.0072.830.080.03
West VirginiaB120.570.0690.0066.940.450.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0655.5638.130.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0675.0069.120.000.02
BYUWCC0.000.0666.6767.300.000.02
DavidsonA100.000.0687.5077.020.000.03
DrexelCAA0.000.0625.0037.13-0.00-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.210.060.0012.36-0.21-0.04
George WashingtonA100.000.0666.6766.340.000.02
GeorgiaSEC0.250.0662.5059.510.060.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.0690.0090.940.000.05
HamptonMEAC0.000.0640.0050.32-0.000.00
IllinoisB100.000.0672.7365.930.000.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0618.1821.30-0.00-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0633.3332.85-0.00-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.0671.4361.370.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0672.7367.750.000.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0625.0023.43-0.00-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.510.0636.3664.92-0.140.02
NorthwesternB100.000.0660.0040.620.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.280.0688.8981.310.220.04
PacificWCC0.000.0650.0038.180.00-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.060.0039.41-0.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0616.6726.28-0.00-0.03
Saint LouisA100.000.0660.0033.870.00-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0671.4357.100.000.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0650.0053.850.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0662.5064.260.000.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0660.0049.500.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0642.8627.08-0.00-0.03
UMBCAE0.000.0610.0020.91-0.00-0.03
UTSACUSA0.000.0642.8637.65-0.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.0670.0071.420.000.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.250.0655.5649.500.03-0.00
XavierBE0.460.0680.0070.960.280.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0014.79-0.00-0.04
North TexasCUSA0.000.0642.8636.79-0.00-0.02
KansasB120.190.0688.8969.390.150.02
Notre DameACC0.320.0690.9171.890.270.03
RutgersB100.530.0660.0035.070.11-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.230.060.0028.26-0.23-0.03
DukeACC0.000.06100.0087.140.000.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0681.8264.110.000.02
StanfordP120.000.0675.0057.570.000.01
USCP120.000.0660.0036.120.00-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.040.0017.51-0.00-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0425.0049.09-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.570.0466.6743.780.19-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.040.0037.73-0.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0450.0074.000.000.02
TulsaAmer0.000.0460.0056.800.000.00
UMKCWAC0.000.0422.2241.92-0.00-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0344.4451.58-0.000.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0344.4431.58-0.00-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0350.0049.620.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.000.0325.0029.59-0.00-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0337.5050.40-0.000.00
High PointBSth0.000.0362.5056.410.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0330.0028.50-0.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0350.0053.700.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.250.0336.3638.88-0.07-0.01
SeattleWAC0.250.0337.5046.50-0.06-0.00
St. John'sBE0.320.0387.5065.040.240.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0366.6751.430.000.00
UC DavisBW0.250.0385.7161.020.180.01
BaylorB120.000.0390.0073.870.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0320.0034.08-0.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0360.0064.610.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.250.0377.7869.190.140.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.280.0350.0044.900.00-0.00
DaytonA100.000.0377.7870.120.000.01
DuquesneA100.000.0328.5731.23-0.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0344.4451.04-0.000.00
FordhamA100.000.0328.5728.26-0.00-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0370.0060.790.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0325.0038.92-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0341.6744.33-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0344.4445.64-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0023.15-0.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0344.4470.08-0.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0340.0050.78-0.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.280.0390.0078.050.230.02
OklahomaB120.000.0377.7867.290.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0318.1828.02-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0320.0029.81-0.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.210.0344.4447.53-0.02-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0311.1144.62-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.000.0330.0037.28-0.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.210.0337.5064.43-0.050.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0360.0057.600.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.0377.7871.960.000.01
Cal PolyBW0.230.0342.8638.75-0.03-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0310.0030.45-0.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0366.6745.670.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0366.6777.030.000.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0350.0037.510.00-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0085.330.000.02
Miami FLACC0.000.0390.0075.520.000.01
Michigan St.B100.190.0372.7373.150.090.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0377.7864.730.000.01
MontanaBSky0.230.0325.0052.09-0.110.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.0370.0071.630.000.01
OregonP120.000.0366.6758.060.000.00
Oregon St.P120.000.0377.7855.460.000.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0366.6752.340.000.00
SamfordSC0.000.0333.3331.58-0.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.210.0390.0067.260.170.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0387.5054.790.000.00
UtahP120.000.0377.7879.480.000.02
WisconsinB100.000.0390.9188.390.000.02