Princeton

Conference:	Ivy
Expected RPI:	124.0
Current RPI:	124
Expected SOS:	166
Current SOS:	166
Current Record:	16-11
Expected Record:	16-11
Current Conf Record:	10-4
Expected Conf Record:	10-4
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	10-3
Current OOC Record:	6-7
Expected OOC Record:	6-7
Expected OOC RPI:	96
Expected OOC SOS:	36

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
16-11	124.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Princeton.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Buffalo (215.0)	MAC	A	53-57	W	100%
11-13	Northeastern (159.0)	CAA	H	66-67	L	0%
11-16	Rutgers (109.0)	BE	H	52-58	L	0%
11-21	Syracuse (14.0)	BE	A	73-53	L	0%
11-24	Lafayette (153.0)	Pat	A	53-72	W	100%
11-28	Wagner (126.0)	NEC	A	48-42	L	0%
12-1	Kent St. (131.0)	MAC	A	50-62	W	100%
12-8	Drexel (206.0)	CAA	H	57-64	L	0%
12-15	Fordham (228.0)	A10	N	63-60	L	0%
12-20	Rider (145.0)	MAAC	H	62-45	W	100%
12-22	Bucknell (51.0)	Pat	H	79-67	W	100%
12-30	Akron (43.0)	MAC	A	62-58	L	0%
1-5	Elon (174.0)	SC	A	64-74	W	100%
1-12	Pennsylvania (280.0)	Ivy	H	65-53	W	100%
2-1	Cornell (248.0)	Ivy	H	76-59	W	100%
2-2	Columbia (273.0)	Ivy	H	72-66	W	100%
2-8	Brown (241.0)	Ivy	H	63-46	W	100%
2-9	Yale (198.0)	Ivy	H	65-69	L	0%
2-15	Dartmouth (294.0)	Ivy	A	55-73	W	100%
2-16	Harvard (93.0)	Ivy	A	69-57	L	0%
2-22	Columbia (273.0)	Ivy	A	40-65	W	100%
2-23	Cornell (248.0)	Ivy	A	53-72	W	100%
3-1	Harvard (93.0)	Ivy	H	58-53	W	100%
3-2	Dartmouth (294.0)	Ivy	H	68-63	W	100%
3-8	Yale (198.0)	Ivy	A	71-66	L	0%
3-9	Brown (241.0)	Ivy	A	80-67	L	0%
3-12	Pennsylvania (280.0)	Ivy	A	58-71	W	100%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Princeton's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Princeton's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Princeton.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Princeton	Ivy	26.30	26.30	61.07	61.07	5.82	5.82
Pennsylvania	Ivy	4.63	4.63	31.03	31.03	-1.75	-1.75
Dartmouth	Ivy	4.55	4.55	32.00	32.00	-1.64	-1.64
Columbia	Ivy	4.55	4.55	41.67	41.67	-0.76	-0.76
Cornell	Ivy	4.53	4.53	42.86	42.86	-0.65	-0.65
Yale	Ivy	4.53	4.53	37.04	37.04	-1.17	-1.17
Harvard	Ivy	4.52	4.52	68.00	68.00	1.63	1.63
Brown	Ivy	4.49	4.49	44.00	44.00	-0.54	-0.54
Bucknell	Pat	2.17	2.17	87.10	87.10	1.61	1.61
Kent St.	MAC	2.09	2.09	61.29	61.29	0.47	0.47
Buffalo	MAC	2.06	2.06	38.71	38.71	-0.47	-0.47
Drexel	CAA	2.03	2.03	40.00	40.00	-0.41	-0.41
Lafayette	Pat	2.00	2.00	56.25	56.25	0.25	0.25
Akron	MAC	2.00	2.00	80.00	80.00	1.20	1.20
Elon	SC	1.99	1.99	65.52	65.52	0.62	0.62
Fordham	A10	1.98	1.98	20.00	20.00	-1.19	-1.19
Wagner	NEC	1.94	1.94	60.00	60.00	0.39	0.39
Northeastern	CAA	1.91	1.91	61.29	61.29	0.43	0.43
Rider	MAAC	1.91	1.91	58.06	58.06	0.31	0.31
Syracuse	BE	1.91	1.91	73.53	73.53	0.90	0.90
Rutgers	BE	1.91	1.91	46.67	46.67	-0.13	-0.13
Holy Cross	Pat	0.41	0.41	40.00	40.00	-0.08	-0.08
Colgate	Pat	0.37	0.37	34.38	34.38	-0.12	-0.12
Army	Pat	0.35	0.35	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Delaware	CAA	0.29	0.29	57.58	57.58	0.04	0.04
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.28	0.28	58.06	58.06	0.05	0.05
Bryant	NEC	0.26	0.26	63.33	63.33	0.07	0.07
Manhattan	MAAC	0.26	0.26	43.75	43.75	-0.03	-0.03
American	Pat	0.25	0.25	33.33	33.33	-0.08	-0.08
Lehigh	Pat	0.23	0.23	68.97	68.97	0.09	0.09
Vermont	AE	0.23	0.23	65.62	65.62	0.07	0.07
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.22	0.22	31.03	31.03	-0.08	-0.08
Long Island	NEC	0.22	0.22	60.61	60.61	0.05	0.05
Villanova	BE	0.21	0.21	59.38	59.38	0.04	0.04
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.21	0.21	43.33	43.33	-0.03	-0.03
Fairfield	MAAC	0.21	0.21	55.88	55.88	0.02	0.02
George Mason	CAA	0.21	0.21	56.25	56.25	0.03	0.03
Ohio	MAC	0.21	0.21	72.73	72.73	0.09	0.09
Temple	A10	0.20	0.20	71.88	71.88	0.09	0.09
New Hampshire	AE	0.20	0.20	28.57	28.57	-0.09	-0.09
Binghamton	AE	0.19	0.19	6.90	6.90	-0.16	-0.16
Boston University	AE	0.19	0.19	58.62	58.62	0.03	0.03
Niagara	MAAC	0.18	0.18	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.18	0.18	17.24	17.24	-0.12	-0.12
La Salle	A10	0.18	0.18	70.00	70.00	0.07	0.07
Bowling Green	MAC	0.18	0.18	36.67	36.67	-0.05	-0.05
Miami OH	MAC	0.18	0.18	26.67	26.67	-0.08	-0.08
Monmouth	NEC	0.17	0.17	32.26	32.26	-0.06	-0.06
Maine	AE	0.17	0.17	34.48	34.48	-0.05	-0.05
St. Mary's	WCC	0.16	0.16	81.25	81.25	0.10	0.10
Massachusetts	A10	0.16	0.16	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Marist	MAAC	0.16	0.16	32.26	32.26	-0.06	-0.06
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.16	0.16	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Connecticut	BE	0.15	0.15	66.67	66.67	0.05	0.05
Notre Dame	BE	0.15	0.15	73.53	73.53	0.07	0.07
Providence	BE	0.15	0.15	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.15	0.15	30.00	30.00	-0.06	-0.06
Western Michigan	MAC	0.15	0.15	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Hofstra	CAA	0.15	0.15	19.35	19.35	-0.09	-0.09
Navy	Pat	0.14	0.14	23.33	23.33	-0.08	-0.08
Georgetown	BE	0.14	0.14	80.65	80.65	0.09	0.09
Boston College	ACC	0.14	0.14	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Furman	SC	0.13	0.13	17.24	17.24	-0.09	-0.09
Arizona St.	P12	0.13	0.13	63.64	63.64	0.04	0.04
Longwood	BSth	0.13	0.13	19.35	19.35	-0.08	-0.08
NC Greensboro	SC	0.12	0.12	24.14	24.14	-0.06	-0.06
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.12	0.12	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Butler	A10	0.12	0.12	75.76	75.76	0.06	0.06
Penn St.	B10	0.12	0.12	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Georgia St.	CAA	0.12	0.12	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.12	0.12	58.82	58.82	0.02	0.02
Old Dominion	CAA	0.12	0.12	16.67	16.67	-0.08	-0.08
Ball St.	MAC	0.12	0.12	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.12	0.12	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
St. John's	BE	0.12	0.12	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.11	0.11	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.11	0.11	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.11	0.11	75.00	75.00	0.06	0.06
Louisville	BE	0.11	0.11	85.29	85.29	0.08	0.08
Albany	AE	0.10	0.10	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Rhode Island	A10	0.10	0.10	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
Rice	CUSA	0.10	0.10	13.79	13.79	-0.07	-0.07
Evansville	MVC	0.09	0.09	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.09	0.09	71.43	71.43	0.04	0.04
Duke	ACC	0.09	0.09	84.38	84.38	0.06	0.06
Stony Brook	AE	0.09	0.09	76.67	76.67	0.05	0.05
Robert Morris	NEC	0.09	0.09	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Towson	CAA	0.09	0.09	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Xavier	A10	0.09	0.09	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.09	0.09	22.58	22.58	-0.05	-0.05
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.09	0.09	48.00	48.00	-0.00	-0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.09	0.09	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.09	0.09	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.09	0.09	13.79	13.79	-0.06	-0.06
Siena	MAAC	0.09	0.09	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Toledo	MAC	0.09	0.09	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.09	0.09	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Cincinnati	BE	0.09	0.09	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
DePaul	BE	0.09	0.09	34.38	34.38	-0.03	-0.03
San Francisco	WCC	0.07	0.07	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
California	P12	0.07	0.07	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.07	0.07	88.24	88.24	0.05	0.05
Northwestern	B10	0.07	0.07	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Florida	SEC	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Hartford	AE	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Nevada	MWC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Appalachian St.	SC	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
College of Charleston	SC	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Presbyterian	BSth	0.06	0.06	17.24	17.24	-0.04	-0.04
Samford	SC	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Western Carolina	SC	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.06	0.06	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Wofford	SC	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Davidson	SC	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
South Carolina	SEC	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
George Washington	A10	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.06	0.06	23.33	23.33	-0.03	-0.03
Mississippi	SEC	0.06	0.06	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.06	0.06	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Detroit	Horz	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.06	0.06	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
South Florida	BE	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia Southern	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.03	0.03	21.43	21.43	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.03	0.03	42.31	42.31	-0.00	-0.00
Creighton	MVC	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	67.86	67.86	0.01	0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Santa Clara	WCC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Texas St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.02	0.02
Arkansas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Chicago St.	GWC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri	SEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Tulsa	CUSA	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
UC Riverside	BW	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Valparaiso	Horz	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Washington St.	P12	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Stanford	P12	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Long Beach St.	BW	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
San Diego St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01