Princeton

Conference:	Ivy
Expected RPI:	117.6
Current RPI:	105
Expected SOS:	126
Current SOS:	103
Current Record:	9-10
Expected Record:	15-13
Current Conf Record:	2-3
Expected Conf Record:	8-6
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	6-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	6-3
Current OOC Record:	7-7
Expected OOC Record:	7-7
Expected OOC RPI:	94
Expected OOC SOS:	74

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
18-10	73.8	0.71%
17-11	87.3	6.77%
16-12	100.9	22.74%
15-13	114.7	30.38%
14-14	128.4	24.94%
13-15	143.0	10.91%
12-16	159.2	3.02%
11-17	174.7	0.50%
10-18	192.0	0.02%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Princeton.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-12	Wagner (83.5)	NEC	H	57-73	L	0%	0.0
11-16	North Carolina St. (62.9)	ACC	A	60-58	L	0%	0.0
11-19	Buffalo (70.7)	MAC	H	61-53	W	100%	0.0
11-22	Elon (223.5)	SC	H	55-56	L	0%	0.0
11-25	Bucknell (71.1)	Pat	A	62-56	L	0%	0.0
11-26	Morehead St. (187.8)	OVC	N	68-56	L	0%	0.0
11-30	Lafayette (210.2)	Pat	H	69-54	W	100%	0.0
12-7	Rutgers (141.7)	BE	A	57-59	W	100%	0.0
12-10	Drexel (79.2)	CAA	A	64-60	L	0%	0.0
12-14	Rider (213.8)	MAAC	A	71-72	W	100%	0.0
12-18	Northeastern (164.6)	CAA	A	62-71	W	100%	0.0
12-22	Siena (226.0)	MAAC	A	63-59	L	0%	0.0
12-30	Florida St. (21.9)	ACC	A	73-75	W	100%	0.0
1-1	Florida A&M (329.2)	MEAC	A	61-76	W	100%	0.0
1-13	Cornell (178.3)	Ivy	A	67-59	L	0%	0.0
1-14	Columbia (150.3)	Ivy	A	58-62	W	100%	0.0
1-30	Pennsylvania (113.9)	Ivy	A	82-67	L	0%	0.0
2-3	Brown (305.2)	Ivy	A	63-77	W	100%	0.0
2-4	Yale (117.5)	Ivy	A	58-54	L	0%	0.0
2-10	Dartmouth (320.3)	Ivy	H	0-0		91%	14.3
2-11	Harvard (36.7)	Ivy	H	0-0		32%	-5.1
2-17	Columbia (150.3)	Ivy	H	0-0		70%	5.8
2-18	Cornell (178.3)	Ivy	H	0-0		73%	6.5
2-24	Harvard (36.7)	Ivy	A	0-0		14%	-11.8
2-25	Dartmouth (320.3)	Ivy	A	0-0		76%	7.6
3-2	Yale (117.5)	Ivy	H	0-0		70%	5.8
3-3	Brown (305.2)	Ivy	H	0-0		94%	16.8
3-6	Pennsylvania (113.9)	Ivy	H	0-0		61%	3.1

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Princeton's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Princeton's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Princeton.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Princeton	Ivy	26.15	26.31	57.89	56.73	4.13	3.54
Pennsylvania	Ivy	3.07	4.42	52.38	55.98	0.15	0.53
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.45	4.42	14.29	17.19	-0.32	-2.90
Columbia	Ivy	2.95	4.39	57.89	57.88	0.47	0.69
Cornell	Ivy	2.95	4.38	33.33	39.66	-0.98	-0.91
Harvard	Ivy	0.33	4.36	90.48	88.71	0.27	3.37
Brown	Ivy	2.84	4.33	28.57	25.28	-1.22	-2.14
Yale	Ivy	2.81	4.31	70.59	63.05	1.16	1.13
Bucknell	Pat	2.82	2.01	72.73	74.11	1.28	0.97
Lafayette	Pat	2.87	2.00	45.45	44.48	-0.26	-0.22
Elon	SC	2.75	1.94	47.37	45.57	-0.14	-0.17
Rider	MAAC	2.87	1.93	39.13	39.80	-0.62	-0.39
North Carolina St.	ACC	2.81	1.91	69.57	63.24	1.10	0.51
Drexel	CAA	2.80	1.88	78.26	77.35	1.58	1.03
Florida St.	ACC	2.63	1.88	76.19	74.18	1.38	0.91
Wagner	NEC	2.75	1.87	81.82	84.02	1.75	1.28
Northeastern	CAA	2.80	1.87	50.00	50.29	0.00	0.01
Buffalo	MAC	2.70	1.85	72.22	69.01	1.20	0.70
Rutgers	BE	2.63	1.85	52.17	48.38	0.11	-0.06
Morehead St.	OVC	2.74	1.85	42.86	45.03	-0.39	-0.18
Siena	MAAC	2.74	1.84	42.86	43.60	-0.39	-0.24
Florida A&M	MEAC	2.63	1.79	20.00	23.20	-1.58	-0.96
Holy Cross	Pat	0.25	0.38	40.91	42.05	-0.05	-0.06
American	Pat	0.31	0.31	65.22	63.79	0.09	0.09
Manhattan	MAAC	0.35	0.30	68.00	69.07	0.13	0.11
Delaware	CAA	0.35	0.28	47.83	50.65	-0.02	0.00
Marist	MAAC	0.35	0.27	34.78	33.43	-0.11	-0.09
Monmouth	NEC	0.28	0.27	28.00	28.91	-0.12	-0.11
Army	Pat	0.24	0.25	40.91	41.72	-0.04	-0.04
Vermont	AE	0.19	0.25	60.00	62.49	0.04	0.06
Bryant	NEC	0.19	0.25	8.33	10.86	-0.16	-0.20
Colgate	Pat	0.18	0.25	30.43	29.50	-0.07	-0.10
Albany	AE	0.19	0.25	60.00	60.42	0.04	0.05
Lehigh	Pat	0.24	0.22	73.91	74.91	0.12	0.11
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.30	0.22	44.00	45.89	-0.04	-0.02
Stony Brook	AE	0.24	0.22	66.67	68.05	0.08	0.08
Connecticut	BE	0.24	0.21	68.18	63.99	0.09	0.06
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.19	0.19	45.45	45.70	-0.02	-0.02
Boston University	AE	0.18	0.19	48.00	51.88	-0.01	0.01
Navy	Pat	0.30	0.19	9.52	13.19	-0.24	-0.14
Hofstra	CAA	0.23	0.18	32.00	35.39	-0.08	-0.05
Niagara	MAAC	0.18	0.18	37.50	41.54	-0.05	-0.03
La Salle	A10	0.29	0.18	70.83	68.82	0.12	0.07
James Madison	CAA	0.17	0.18	40.00	40.18	-0.03	-0.03
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.25	0.16	60.00	59.06	0.05	0.03
Binghamton	AE	0.24	0.16	0.00	4.02	-0.24	-0.15
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.18	0.16	8.70	12.13	-0.15	-0.12
Long Island	NEC	0.24	0.16	70.83	71.05	0.10	0.07
Florida	SEC	0.24	0.16	82.61	77.63	0.16	0.09
Wake Forest	ACC	0.24	0.16	47.83	43.66	-0.01	-0.02
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.13	0.16	59.09	57.76	0.02	0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.12	0.15	17.39	19.81	-0.08	-0.09
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.30	0.15	21.74	24.58	-0.17	-0.08
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.23	0.15	56.52	55.95	0.03	0.02
George Mason	CAA	0.17	0.15	76.00	72.50	0.09	0.07
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.24	0.15	39.13	42.12	-0.05	-0.02
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.23	0.15	77.27	73.45	0.13	0.07
Boston College	ACC	0.11	0.15	30.43	26.44	-0.04	-0.07
Fairfield	MAAC	0.17	0.15	54.55	54.30	0.02	0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.11	0.15	62.50	62.49	0.03	0.04
Pittsburgh	BE	0.23	0.15	60.87	58.16	0.05	0.02
Duke	ACC	0.12	0.15	86.36	83.09	0.09	0.10
Miami FL	ACC	0.11	0.15	65.00	60.02	0.03	0.03
Hartford	AE	0.13	0.13	17.39	20.97	-0.09	-0.07
Rhode Island	A10	0.13	0.13	20.83	20.60	-0.08	-0.08
Western Carolina	SC	0.18	0.13	34.78	37.24	-0.06	-0.03
Seton Hall	BE	0.07	0.13	65.22	63.74	0.02	0.03
Maryland	ACC	0.18	0.12	59.09	50.82	0.03	0.00
Massachusetts	A10	0.24	0.12	73.91	68.58	0.12	0.05
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.24	0.12	38.89	43.93	-0.05	-0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.23	0.12	21.74	22.76	-0.13	-0.07
Georgia St.	CAA	0.17	0.12	66.67	69.69	0.06	0.05
Longwood	ind	0.06	0.12	30.00	27.84	-0.02	-0.05
New Hampshire	AE	0.06	0.12	35.00	38.58	-0.02	-0.03
Towson	CAA	0.17	0.12	4.00	5.26	-0.15	-0.11
William & Mary	CAA	0.11	0.12	12.50	13.44	-0.08	-0.09
North Carolina	ACC	0.18	0.12	86.96	83.16	0.13	0.08
Providence	BE	0.18	0.12	56.52	50.27	0.02	0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.17	0.12	79.17	80.10	0.10	0.07
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.12	65.22	62.65	0.02	0.03
Virginia	ACC	0.17	0.12	81.82	76.80	0.11	0.06
Robert Morris	NEC	0.17	0.12	68.00	70.03	0.06	0.05
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.17	0.12	13.64	16.35	-0.12	-0.08
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.13	0.10	56.52	57.15	0.02	0.01
Akron	MAC	0.13	0.10	68.18	67.91	0.05	0.04
Bowling Green	MAC	0.07	0.10	47.62	48.82	-0.00	-0.00
College of Charleston	SC	0.19	0.10	58.33	59.98	0.03	0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.13	0.10	71.43	69.05	0.06	0.04
Penn St.	B10	0.13	0.10	41.67	38.67	-0.02	-0.02
Furman	SC	0.13	0.10	47.62	48.83	-0.01	-0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.19	0.10	55.00	57.41	0.02	0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.13	0.10	34.78	33.46	-0.04	-0.03
Central Michigan	MAC	0.00	0.09	28.57	34.20	-0.00	-0.03
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.11	0.09	68.18	69.68	0.04	0.04
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.06	0.09	36.36	39.72	-0.02	-0.02
Fordham	A10	0.06	0.09	40.91	34.50	-0.01	-0.03
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.06	0.09	26.09	28.60	-0.03	-0.04
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.17	0.09	35.29	39.85	-0.05	-0.02
Central Florida	CUSA	0.06	0.09	71.43	66.60	0.03	0.03
Old Dominion	CAA	0.11	0.09	60.00	58.29	0.02	0.02
Davidson	SC	0.06	0.09	76.19	76.76	0.03	0.05
Temple	A10	0.13	0.09	77.27	75.06	0.07	0.05
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.17	0.09	69.57	65.87	0.07	0.03
West Virginia	BE	0.17	0.09	65.22	65.17	0.05	0.03
Syracuse	BE	0.11	0.09	95.83	92.01	0.10	0.07
Clemson	ACC	0.06	0.09	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.06	0.09	56.52	55.20	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.06	0.09	45.45	46.08	-0.01	-0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.07	0.07	35.00	39.29	-0.02	-0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.07	0.07	27.27	35.02	-0.03	-0.02
Illinois	B10	0.07	0.07	72.73	64.43	0.03	0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.07	0.07	30.00	34.15	-0.03	-0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.07	0.07	81.82	77.20	0.04	0.04
Samford	SC	0.07	0.07	33.33	35.26	-0.02	-0.02
The Citadel	SC	0.13	0.07	9.52	11.44	-0.11	-0.05
Austin Peay	OVC	0.06	0.06	33.33	35.97	-0.02	-0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.13	0.06	38.10	42.78	-0.03	-0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.06	0.06	33.33	34.47	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.06	0.06	50.00	51.73	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	34.78	38.42	-0.02	-0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.06	0.06	33.33	37.25	-0.02	-0.02
North Texas	SB	0.07	0.06	50.00	50.01	0.00	0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	52.38	57.86	0.00	0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.06	0.06	26.32	29.71	-0.03	-0.03
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	10.00	14.93	-0.05	-0.04
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.12	0.06	60.87	59.76	0.03	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.12	0.06	56.52	48.81	0.02	-0.00
Stetson	ASun	0.12	0.06	31.82	31.31	-0.04	-0.02
George Washington	A10	0.00	0.06	34.78	32.08	-0.00	-0.02
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.00	0.06	35.00	35.31	-0.00	-0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.00	0.06	56.52	53.77	0.00	0.00
Seattle	ind	0.00	0.06	23.53	33.28	-0.00	-0.02
Utah	P12	0.00	0.06	18.18	15.01	-0.00	-0.04
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.06	36.36	38.48	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.06	18.18	22.22	-0.03	-0.03
Illinois St.	MVC	0.11	0.06	62.50	62.06	0.03	0.01
South Florida	BE	0.12	0.06	54.55	48.60	0.01	-0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.11	0.06	24.00	24.86	-0.06	-0.03
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.11	0.06	39.13	36.10	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.11	0.06	80.00	78.06	0.07	0.03
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.11	0.06	33.33	38.38	-0.04	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.11	0.06	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
St. John's	BE	0.06	0.06	43.48	40.28	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.06	0.06	54.17	49.44	0.00	-0.00
Maine	AE	0.06	0.06	50.00	49.73	0.00	-0.00
UCLA	P12	0.06	0.06	54.55	56.79	0.01	0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.07	0.03	75.00	76.00	0.03	0.02
Dayton	A10	0.07	0.03	60.87	60.96	0.02	0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.07	0.03	40.91	38.38	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.07	0.03	40.00	41.30	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.07	0.03	5.26	7.30	-0.06	-0.03
San Diego St.	MWC	0.07	0.03	85.71	78.05	0.05	0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.07	0.03	40.91	39.56	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.00	0.03	73.91	75.49	0.00	0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.07	0.03	38.10	40.81	-0.02	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.00	0.03	40.91	42.96	-0.00	-0.00
Wofford	SC	0.00	0.03	59.09	57.93	0.00	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.07	0.03	50.00	51.53	0.00	0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.06	0.03	20.00	19.96	-0.04	-0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.00	0.03	25.00	37.58	-0.00	-0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.06	0.03	100.00	94.55	0.06	0.03
North Florida	ASun	0.06	0.03	45.83	46.68	-0.01	-0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.06	0.03	47.62	46.46	-0.00	-0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.06	0.03	26.32	28.83	-0.03	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.06	0.03	47.62	47.18	-0.00	-0.00
Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.03	45.00	46.13	-0.01	-0.00
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.06	0.03	4.35	9.66	-0.05	-0.03
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.06	0.03	56.52	53.10	0.01	0.00
Air Force	MWC	0.06	0.03	47.37	42.16	-0.00	-0.00
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.06	0.03	42.86	43.45	-0.01	-0.00
Minnesota	B10	0.06	0.03	69.57	61.31	0.02	0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.06	0.03	28.57	26.30	-0.02	-0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.06	0.03	34.78	32.06	-0.02	-0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.06	0.03	55.00	60.33	0.01	0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.00	0.03	81.82	80.43	0.00	0.02
Jacksonville	ASun	0.06	0.03	17.39	22.00	-0.04	-0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.06	0.03	76.19	72.91	0.03	0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.06	0.03	52.38	52.87	0.00	0.00
Winthrop	BSth	0.05	0.03	34.78	34.61	-0.02	-0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.05	0.03	56.00	55.65	0.01	0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.03	69.57	65.47	0.02	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.03	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.00
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.03	80.95	77.38	0.03	0.02
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.03	75.00	75.78	0.03	0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.05	0.03	59.09	57.28	0.01	0.00
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.03	78.26	72.66	0.03	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.00	0.03	79.17	75.98	0.00	0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.03	68.18	67.64	0.02	0.01
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.03	69.57	68.29	0.02	0.01
Texas	B12	0.05	0.03	60.87	61.37	0.01	0.01