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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Princeton

Conference:Ivy
Expected RPI:226.0
Current RPI:226
Expected SOS:224
Current SOS:224
Current Record:12-16
Expected Record:12-16
Current Conf Record:5-9
Expected Conf Record:5-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-5
Current OOC Record:7-7
Expected OOC Record:7-7
Expected OOC RPI:135
Expected OOC SOS:130



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-16226.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Princeton.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Butler (41.0)BEA85-75L0%0.0
11-15BYU (67.0)WCCH56-65L0%0.0
11-18Saint Joseph's (147.0)A10A71-58L0%0.0
11-22Lafayette (311.0)PatH60-46W100%0.0
11-26Fairleigh Dickinson (254.0)NECA76-83W100%0.0
11-29Lehigh (214.0)PatH76-85L0%0.0
12-2Miami FL (28.0)ACCN80-52L0%0.0
12-6George Washington (195.0)A10A71-60L0%0.0
12-12Monmouth (199.0)MAACH69-58W100%0.0
12-16Cal Poly (305.0)BWA60-80W100%0.0
12-19USC (34.0)P12A93-103W100%0.0
12-22Middle Tennessee (33.0)CUSAN67-69L0%0.0
12-23Akron (227.0)MACN62-64W100%0.0
12-25Hawaii (213.0)BWA63-77W100%0.0
1-6Penn (112.0)IvyA76-70L0%0.0
1-12Columbia (316.0)IvyH72-56W100%0.0
1-13Cornell (248.0)IvyH91-54W100%0.0
2-2Yale (183.0)IvyH76-73W100%0.0
2-3Brown (298.0)IvyH100-102L0%0.0
2-6Penn (112.0)IvyH65-82L0%0.0
2-9Harvard (117.0)IvyA66-51L0%0.0
2-10Dartmouth (334.0)IvyA72-56L0%0.0
2-16Cornell (248.0)IvyA107-101L0%0.0
2-17Columbia (316.0)IvyA85-60L0%0.0
2-23Harvard (117.0)IvyH66-72L0%0.0
2-24Dartmouth (334.0)IvyH64-47W100%0.0
3-2Brown (298.0)IvyA63-78W100%0.0
3-3Yale (183.0)IvyA94-90L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Princeton's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Princeton's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Princeton.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
PrincetonIvy26.3026.3044.6244.62-2.83-2.83
PennIvy4.564.5672.4172.412.042.04
HarvardIvy4.534.5353.5753.570.320.32
YaleIvy4.474.4750.0050.000.000.00
CornellIvy4.434.4340.0040.00-0.89-0.89
BrownIvy4.334.3337.5037.50-1.08-1.08
ColumbiaIvy4.334.3325.0025.00-2.17-2.17
DartmouthIvy4.334.3320.8320.83-2.53-2.53
LafayettePat1.971.9731.0331.03-0.75-0.75
LehighPat1.961.9650.0050.000.000.00
MonmouthMAAC1.931.9336.6736.67-0.52-0.52
Saint Joseph'sA101.931.9348.3948.39-0.06-0.06
George WashingtonA101.901.9043.7543.75-0.24-0.24
HawaiiBW1.881.8855.5655.560.210.21
USCP121.881.8869.7069.700.740.74
Miami FLACC1.871.8770.0070.000.750.75
Cal PolyBW1.851.8525.0025.00-0.92-0.92
Middle TennesseeCUSA1.841.8475.8675.860.950.95
AkronMAC1.811.8143.3343.33-0.24-0.24
ButlerBE1.791.7959.3859.380.330.33
BYUWCC1.791.7969.7069.700.700.70
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC1.791.7939.2939.29-0.38-0.38
ColgatePat0.290.2958.0658.060.050.05
NavyPat0.280.2861.2961.290.060.06
VillanovaBE0.270.2788.2488.240.200.20
QuinnipiacMAAC0.260.2636.3636.36-0.07-0.07
BryantNEC0.260.269.689.68-0.21-0.21
Boston UniversityPat0.240.2446.6746.67-0.02-0.02
AlbanyAE0.230.2367.7467.740.080.08
Holy CrossPat0.210.2138.7138.71-0.05-0.05
Cal St. FullertonBW0.210.2162.0762.070.050.05
ToledoMAC0.210.2166.6766.670.070.07
Boston CollegeACC0.190.1955.8855.880.020.02
ArmyPat0.190.1941.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Loyola MDPat0.190.1926.6726.67-0.09-0.09
VermontAE0.190.1978.7978.790.110.11
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.180.1870.0070.000.070.07
BucknellPat0.180.1873.5373.530.080.08
FordhamA100.170.1729.0329.03-0.07-0.07
La SalleA100.170.1740.6240.62-0.03-0.03
MassachusettsA100.170.1739.3939.39-0.04-0.04
George MasonA100.170.1748.4848.48-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.170.1713.3313.33-0.12-0.12
LIU BrooklynNEC0.160.1651.5251.520.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.160.1630.0030.00-0.06-0.06
UC IrvineBW0.160.1648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.150.1578.1278.120.090.09
AmericanPat0.150.1520.0020.00-0.09-0.09
NiagaraMAAC0.150.1559.3859.380.030.03
DuquesneA100.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
IonaMAAC0.150.1560.6160.610.030.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.150.1543.7543.75-0.02-0.02
DavidsonA100.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
St. BonaventureA100.140.1478.1278.120.080.08
DaytonA100.140.1445.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.140.1484.8584.850.100.10
UtahP120.140.1463.3363.330.040.04
Stony BrookAE0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.130.1313.3313.33-0.10-0.10
UMass LowellAE0.130.1337.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.130.1343.7543.75-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.130.1337.9337.93-0.03-0.03
NJITASun0.130.1342.8642.86-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.130.1319.3519.35-0.08-0.08
Penn St.B100.130.1361.7661.760.030.03
CanisiusMAAC0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
DelawareCAA0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.130.1314.2914.29-0.09-0.09
Long Beach St.BW0.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
UC DavisBW0.130.1366.6766.670.040.04
UC RiversideBW0.130.1324.1424.14-0.06-0.06
St. Francis PANEC0.120.1257.1457.140.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.120.1261.7661.760.030.03
ManhattanMAAC0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.120.1225.8125.81-0.06-0.06
FairfieldMAAC0.120.1251.5251.520.000.00
CreightonBE0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
TempleAmer0.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.110.1134.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Saint LouisA100.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.100.1057.5857.580.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
AuburnSEC0.100.1078.1278.120.050.05
New HampshireAE0.100.1027.5927.59-0.04-0.04
SyracuseACC0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
SienaMAAC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
VirginiaACC0.090.0993.9493.940.080.08
Georgia TechACC0.090.0940.6240.62-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.090.0970.5970.590.040.04
MarshallCUSA0.090.0969.7069.700.030.03
MinnesotaB100.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0928.5728.57-0.04-0.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
RiderMAAC0.080.0870.9770.970.040.04
CaliforniaP120.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
PepperdineWCC0.080.0816.1316.13-0.06-0.06
StanfordP120.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
RichmondA100.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
XavierBE0.080.0884.8584.850.060.06
GonzagaWCC0.080.0888.2488.240.060.06
OregonP120.080.0864.7164.710.020.02
Oregon St.P120.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
NorthwesternB100.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
WagnerNEC0.060.0670.0070.000.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
TCUB120.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
UABCUSA0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
WisconsinB100.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0665.5265.520.020.02
MarylandB100.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.066.676.67-0.05-0.05
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.060.0671.4371.430.020.02
OhioMAC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
UMKCWAC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Virginia TechACC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
SMUAmer0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0612.5012.50-0.04-0.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
Washington St.P120.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
MarquetteBE0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
ArizonaP120.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
ColoradoP120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
PacificWCC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
UCLAP120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
North DakotaBSky0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
TroySB0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0377.4277.420.020.02
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
IdahoBSky0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
RutgersB100.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0382.7682.760.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0332.3532.35-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0324.2424.24-0.01-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
North FloridaASun0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Kansas St.B120.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
PurdueB100.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
TexasB120.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Arizona St.P120.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0344.1244.12-0.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01