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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Lafayette

Conference:Pat
Expected RPI:321.0
Current RPI:321
Expected SOS:283
Current SOS:283
Current Record:8-21
Expected Record:8-21
Current Conf Record:5-14
Expected Conf Record:5-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-12
Current OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC RPI:297
Expected OOC SOS:301



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-21321.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Lafayette.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Villanova (1.0)BEA88-48L0%0.0
11-14Saint Peter's (130.0)MAACA57-61W100%0.0
11-17NJIT (290.0)ASunH84-83W100%0.0
11-20Cornell (270.0)IvyH75-82L0%0.0
11-23Princeton (47.0)IvyH55-71L0%0.0
11-30Drexel (308.0)CAAH70-74L0%0.0
12-5St. Francis NY (348.0)NECA72-74W100%0.0
12-7Penn (203.0)IvyA81-52L0%0.0
12-11Sacred Heart (304.0)NECH61-85L0%0.0
12-22Saint Joseph's (197.0)A10A92-63L0%0.0
12-30Colgate (294.0)PatH75-85L0%0.0
1-2Loyola MD (212.0)PatA69-78W100%0.0
1-5Army (266.0)PatH79-74W100%0.0
1-8Boston University (187.0)PatH75-91L0%0.0
1-11Holy Cross (204.0)PatA71-54L0%0.0
1-14Navy (208.0)PatH51-88L0%0.0
1-18American (310.0)PatA71-57L0%0.0
1-21Lehigh (97.0)PatA75-68L0%0.0
1-25Bucknell (63.0)PatH55-78L0%0.0
1-28Loyola MD (212.0)PatH62-70L0%0.0
2-1Army (266.0)PatA80-73L0%0.0
2-5Boston University (187.0)PatA75-58L0%0.0
2-8Holy Cross (204.0)PatH69-59W100%0.0
2-11Navy (208.0)PatA68-60L0%0.0
2-15American (310.0)PatH78-65W100%0.0
2-19Lehigh (97.0)PatH55-81L0%0.0
2-22Bucknell (63.0)PatA94-64L0%0.0
2-25Colgate (294.0)PatA69-73W100%0.0
2-28Loyola MD (212.0)PatA67-64L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Lafayette's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Lafayette's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Lafayette.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
LafayettePat26.4226.4227.9727.97-11.64-11.64
Loyola MDPat6.116.1144.4444.44-0.68-0.68
BucknellPat4.604.6075.0075.002.302.30
LehighPat4.584.5858.6258.620.790.79
Boston UniversityPat4.564.5651.7251.720.160.16
ArmyPat4.534.5337.9337.93-1.09-1.09
NavyPat4.534.5344.8344.83-0.47-0.47
ColgatePat4.514.5127.5927.59-2.02-2.02
Holy CrossPat4.484.4846.6746.67-0.30-0.30
AmericanPat4.474.4725.0025.00-2.23-2.23
PennIvy2.012.0144.4444.44-0.22-0.22
PrincetonIvy2.012.0177.7877.781.121.12
CornellIvy1.901.9022.2222.22-1.06-1.06
St. Francis NYNEC1.861.8610.3410.34-1.48-1.48
VillanovaBE1.841.8490.9190.911.511.51
Saint Joseph'sA101.841.8433.3333.33-0.61-0.61
Sacred HeartNEC1.841.8438.7138.71-0.41-0.41
Saint Peter'sMAAC1.811.8161.2961.290.410.41
DrexelCAA1.781.7823.3323.33-0.95-0.95
NJITASun1.781.7832.1432.14-0.64-0.64
ColumbiaIvy0.380.3838.4638.46-0.09-0.09
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.330.3355.8855.880.040.04
FairfieldMAAC0.300.3053.3353.330.020.02
YaleIvy0.300.3060.7160.710.060.06
St. Francis PANEC0.250.2548.3948.39-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.250.2561.2961.290.060.06
MonmouthMAAC0.250.2581.8281.820.160.16
Robert MorrisNEC0.250.2542.4242.42-0.04-0.04
La SalleA100.250.2550.0050.000.000.00
BrownIvy0.240.2439.2939.29-0.05-0.05
HarvardIvy0.240.2461.5461.540.060.06
UMass LowellAE0.230.2333.3333.33-0.08-0.08
BinghamtonAE0.230.2331.0331.03-0.09-0.09
NortheasternCAA0.200.2048.3948.39-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.200.2056.2556.250.020.02
Notre DameACC0.190.1973.5373.530.090.09
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.190.1934.4834.48-0.06-0.06
DartmouthIvy0.180.1825.9325.93-0.09-0.09
Stony BrookAE0.170.1758.0658.060.030.03
DuquesneA100.170.1731.2531.25-0.06-0.06
AlbanyAE0.170.1760.6160.610.040.04
WagnerNEC0.170.1751.7251.720.010.01
New HampshireAE0.170.1758.6258.620.030.03
BryantNEC0.170.1735.4835.48-0.05-0.05
CanisiusMAAC0.170.1754.5554.550.020.02
CreightonBE0.160.1672.7372.730.070.07
Central ConnecticutNEC0.140.1420.6920.69-0.08-0.08
TowsonCAA0.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
MassachusettsA100.140.1445.4545.45-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.140.1472.7372.730.060.06
QuinnipiacMAAC0.140.1432.2632.26-0.05-0.05
SienaMAAC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.130.1331.2531.25-0.05-0.05
LipscombASun0.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.120.1246.4346.43-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.110.1161.2961.290.030.03
St. BonaventureA100.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
IonaMAAC0.110.1164.7164.710.030.03
HartfordAE0.110.1128.1228.12-0.05-0.05
FordhamA100.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.110.1119.3519.35-0.07-0.07
Rhode IslandA100.110.1172.7372.730.050.05
MaristMAAC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.05-0.05
XavierBE0.110.1161.7661.760.030.03
ButlerBE0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
MarylandB100.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
High PointBSth0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.080.0828.1228.12-0.04-0.04
ElonCAA0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
HofstraCAA0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0830.3030.30-0.03-0.03
RiderMAAC0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
RichmondA100.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Seton HallBE0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
St. John'sBE0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
George MasonA100.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
VCUA100.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
AkronMAC0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
HowardMEAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0623.0823.08-0.03-0.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.060.0663.3363.330.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
Ohio St.B100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
OregonP120.060.0684.8584.850.040.04
Penn St.B100.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
UMBCAE0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0684.3884.380.040.04
William & MaryCAA0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
PurdueB100.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
VirginiaACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
BYUWCC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Miami FLACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
TroySB0.030.0358.8258.820.010.01
USCP120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
WyomingMWC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
DaytonA100.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
MississippiSEC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
RutgersB100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
ArizonaP120.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00