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Through games of Dec 20, 2014.


Lafayette

Conference:Pat
Expected RPI:95.9
Current RPI:51
Expected SOS:199
Current SOS:117
Current Record:6-3
Expected Record:19-9
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-2
Current OOC Record:6-3
Expected OOC Record:7-3
Expected OOC RPI:60
Expected OOC SOS:166



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-323.70.03%
24-433.90.35%
23-541.11.85%
22-651.26.19%
21-763.412.36%
20-877.518.38%
19-992.621.08%
18-10109.918.01%
17-11127.711.90%
16-12146.26.32%
15-13165.42.63%
14-14182.40.69%
13-15205.90.15%
12-16221.50.04%
11-17251.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Lafayette.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Robert Morris (266.7)NECA50-77W100%0.0
11-16West Virginia (19.3)B12A83-56L0%0.0
11-19Princeton (217.2)IvyH83-66W100%0.0
11-22Penn (270.6)IvyA77-83W100%0.0
11-26Yale (79.8)IvyA82-60L0%0.0
11-30Fairleigh Dickinson (259.6)NECA61-82W100%0.0
12-6Wagner (285.5)NECH97-84W100%0.0
12-8Sacred Heart (147.7)NECH82-81W100%0.0
12-20Kansas (6.8)B12A96-69L0%0.0
12-28NJIT (216.8)indH0-083%11.2
12-31Army (144.3)PatA0-041%-2.8
1-3Navy (317.2)PatH0-094%18.5
1-7Bucknell (249.1)PatA0-067%5.2
1-10Boston University (202.8)PatA0-056%1.7
1-14Loyola MD (286.8)PatH0-093%17.2
1-17American (103.1)PatH0-067%5.1
1-21Holy Cross (148.5)PatA0-048%-0.6
1-24Lehigh (147.2)PatH0-073%7.2
1-28Colgate (186.4)PatA0-046%-1.3
1-31Navy (317.2)PatA0-081%10.2
2-4Bucknell (249.1)PatH0-088%13.5
2-9Boston University (202.8)PatH0-081%10.1
2-11Loyola MD (286.8)PatA0-077%8.8
2-14American (103.1)PatA0-039%-3.3
2-18Holy Cross (148.5)PatH0-075%7.8
2-22Lehigh (147.2)PatA0-046%-1.2
2-25Colgate (186.4)PatH0-073%7.0
2-28Army (144.3)PatH0-068%5.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Lafayette's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Lafayette's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Lafayette.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
LafayettePat27.6226.4376.9271.5014.8711.37
Holy CrossPat0.314.6257.1454.980.040.46
ColgatePat0.314.6020.0042.71-0.19-0.67
NavyPat0.354.6020.0022.87-0.21-2.49
AmericanPat0.004.5763.6464.390.001.32
BucknellPat0.004.5740.0037.66-0.00-1.13
Loyola MDPat0.004.5733.3329.11-0.00-1.91
ArmyPat0.004.5677.7870.570.001.88
Boston UniversityPat0.004.5630.0042.45-0.00-0.69
LehighPat0.004.5644.4455.09-0.000.46
Sacred HeartNEC5.562.1362.5063.081.390.56
PennIvy5.902.0042.8633.84-0.84-0.65
WagnerNEC5.902.0014.2931.69-4.22-0.73
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC5.792.0042.8641.12-0.83-0.36
YaleIvy5.561.9863.6460.461.520.41
Robert MorrisNEC5.561.9733.3340.95-1.85-0.36
PrincetonIvy5.901.9436.3642.48-1.61-0.29
NJITind0.001.8841.6744.80-0.00-0.20
KansasB125.561.8488.8969.704.320.73
West VirginiaB125.561.8490.0069.084.440.70
ColumbiaIvy0.690.5566.6767.930.230.20
St. Francis PANEC0.000.4755.5665.210.000.14
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.4333.3341.20-0.00-0.08
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.3533.3345.04-0.00-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.3530.0043.15-0.00-0.05
BrownIvy0.000.3440.0033.80-0.00-0.11
BryantNEC0.230.3428.5745.89-0.10-0.03
HarvardIvy0.000.3285.7172.910.000.15
CornellIvy0.000.3155.5648.710.00-0.01
AlbanyAE0.230.2940.0055.01-0.050.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.2820.0027.29-0.00-0.13
BinghamtonAE0.350.280.0011.24-0.35-0.22
DartmouthIvy0.000.2250.0046.690.00-0.01
VillanovaBE0.000.19100.0082.970.000.13
SyracuseACC0.000.1960.0058.120.000.03
RiderMAAC0.860.1950.0053.250.000.01
Texas TechB120.000.1890.0055.360.000.02
MaineAE0.350.1711.1120.80-0.27-0.10
UMass LowellAE0.310.1650.0050.490.000.00
UMBCAE0.000.1618.1825.30-0.00-0.08
QuinnipiacMAAC0.230.1644.4450.60-0.030.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.1638.4644.61-0.00-0.02
MaristMAAC0.350.169.0916.15-0.28-0.11
VMISC0.250.1533.3338.93-0.08-0.03
New HampshireAE0.310.1550.0060.410.000.03
Stony BrookAE0.230.1533.3355.24-0.080.02
La SalleA100.000.1554.5552.730.000.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.1355.5662.150.000.03
HartfordAE0.540.1350.0050.620.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.230.1336.3648.18-0.06-0.00
DelawareCAA0.350.130.008.56-0.35-0.10
NortheasternCAA0.000.1370.0060.920.000.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.350.1360.0043.160.07-0.02
Arizona St.P120.000.1254.5548.490.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.1240.0037.64-0.00-0.03
SienaMAAC0.000.1233.3349.54-0.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.350.1263.6456.430.090.02
BaylorB120.000.1290.0073.240.000.05
Iowa St.B120.000.1290.0065.480.000.04
Kansas St.B120.000.1263.6440.190.00-0.02
OklahomaB120.000.1270.0062.710.000.03
Oklahoma St.B120.000.1288.8963.020.000.03
TCUB120.000.12100.0067.700.000.04
TexasB120.000.1290.9179.980.000.07
HamptonMEAC0.000.1045.4549.62-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.000.1050.0040.450.00-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0954.5559.560.000.02
Notre DameACC0.350.0991.6777.120.290.05
TowsonCAA0.000.0960.0047.170.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.280.09100.0096.290.280.09
MonmouthMAAC0.600.0950.0058.370.000.02
ProvidenceBE0.230.0975.0057.390.120.01
Michigan St.B100.280.0966.6767.300.090.03
Wake ForestACC0.000.0945.4537.60-0.00-0.02
CampbellBSth0.310.0925.0043.93-0.15-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.310.0963.6455.660.080.01
Ohio St.B100.310.0981.8282.250.200.06
ToledoMAC0.280.0963.6461.520.080.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.350.0736.3646.72-0.09-0.00
St. John'sBE0.350.0788.8965.170.270.02
PittsburghACC0.000.0770.0051.780.000.00
DuquesneA100.280.0737.5034.06-0.07-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.0650.0055.890.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0680.0069.770.000.03
DePaulBE0.000.0660.0034.160.00-0.02
DukeACC0.000.06100.0087.090.000.05
USCP120.000.0660.0036.410.00-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0666.6758.210.000.01
VermontAE0.580.0644.4457.69-0.060.01
RutgersB100.350.0654.5532.590.03-0.02
ButlerBE0.000.0672.7367.960.000.02
The CitadelSC0.000.0614.2932.16-0.00-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.480.0650.0058.070.000.01
FloridaSEC0.510.0663.6465.220.140.02
George MasonA100.480.0633.3330.21-0.16-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.230.0675.0058.160.120.01
IllinoisB100.000.0675.0065.140.000.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0672.7367.520.000.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0616.6737.21-0.00-0.02
Penn St.B100.000.0691.6755.310.000.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.060.008.60-0.00-0.05
GeorgetownBE0.560.0670.0059.220.220.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0430.0043.74-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0460.0048.980.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.040.0031.89-0.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0370.0064.680.000.01
HofstraCAA0.350.0370.0076.180.140.02
MarylandB100.350.0390.9168.230.280.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0312.5029.51-0.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.230.0390.9169.030.190.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.230.0318.1820.86-0.15-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.230.0380.0076.450.140.02
LibertyBSth0.000.0325.0035.39-0.00-0.01
LipscombASun0.230.0322.2238.44-0.13-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.230.0354.5557.570.020.00
San Jose St.MWC0.230.030.008.00-0.23-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.230.0354.5544.930.02-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.230.0360.0071.280.050.01
BradleyMVC0.280.0333.3334.04-0.09-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.280.0377.7870.890.150.01
ChattanoogaSC0.280.0340.0049.39-0.06-0.00
ClemsonACC0.000.0360.0043.890.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.280.0333.3346.17-0.09-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.280.0372.7374.850.130.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.280.0345.4543.23-0.03-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.250.0366.6742.600.08-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.250.0345.4545.10-0.02-0.00
LSUSEC0.250.0380.0063.910.150.01
MarshallCUSA0.250.0322.2236.53-0.14-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.250.0375.0061.480.130.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.250.0333.3343.14-0.08-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.280.0366.6773.310.090.01
TennesseeSEC0.280.0355.5646.290.03-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.280.0337.5063.95-0.070.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0366.6749.560.00-0.00
UtahP120.280.0380.0080.520.170.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0360.0038.030.00-0.01
WoffordSC0.000.0377.7875.550.000.01