Lafayette

Conference:	Pat
Expected RPI:	195.0
Current RPI:	195
Expected SOS:	179
Current SOS:	179
Current Record:	13-18
Expected Record:	13-18
Current Conf Record:	8-8
Expected Conf Record:	8-8
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-10
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	10-2
Current OOC Record:	5-10
Expected OOC Record:	5-10
Expected OOC RPI:	242
Expected OOC SOS:	187

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
13-18	195.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Lafayette.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	La Salle (90.0)	A10	A	79-53	L	0%
11-14	St. Francis PA (312.0)	NEC	A	81-84	W	100%
11-16	St. Francis NY (210.0)	NEC	H	79-73	W	100%
11-19	Wagner (93.0)	NEC	H	70-76	L	0%
11-22	Fairleigh Dickinson (330.0)	NEC	H	85-74	W	100%
11-26	Delaware (153.0)	CAA	A	81-78	L	0%
11-30	Princeton (87.0)	Ivy	A	69-54	L	0%
12-5	Long Island (80.0)	NEC	H	80-82	L	0%
12-7	Penn St. (161.0)	B10	A	57-61	W	100%
12-11	Sacred Heart (237.0)	NEC	A	84-79	L	0%
12-21	Vanderbilt (18.0)	SEC	A	89-58	L	0%
12-28	Monmouth (236.0)	NEC	H	69-54	W	100%
12-30	Columbia (186.0)	Ivy	A	77-67	L	0%
1-2	NJ Inst of Technology (304.0)	GWC	A	78-58	L	0%
1-4	Pennsylvania (98.0)	Ivy	H	73-78	L	0%
1-7	Navy (327.0)	Pat	A	63-65	W	100%
1-11	Army (301.0)	Pat	H	75-63	W	100%
1-14	Bucknell (88.0)	Pat	H	65-79	L	0%
1-19	Holy Cross (177.0)	Pat	A	43-54	W	100%
1-22	Lehigh (91.0)	Pat	H	76-90	L	0%
1-25	Colgate (295.0)	Pat	A	76-82	W	100%
1-28	American (142.0)	Pat	H	61-69	L	0%
2-4	Navy (327.0)	Pat	H	62-41	W	100%
2-8	Army (301.0)	Pat	A	74-90	W	100%
2-11	Bucknell (88.0)	Pat	A	90-78	L	0%
2-15	Holy Cross (177.0)	Pat	H	63-70	L	0%
2-18	Lehigh (91.0)	Pat	A	72-53	L	0%
2-22	Colgate (295.0)	Pat	H	84-67	W	100%
2-25	American (142.0)	Pat	A	76-69	L	0%
2-29	Holy Cross (177.0)	Pat	A	76-84	W	100%
3-3	Bucknell (88.0)	Pat	A	79-52	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Lafayette's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Lafayette's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Lafayette.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Lafayette	Pat	26.41	26.41	44.97	44.97	-2.66	-2.66
Bucknell	Pat	5.76	5.76	68.97	68.97	2.18	2.18
Holy Cross	Pat	5.58	5.58	53.85	53.85	0.43	0.43
Lehigh	Pat	4.24	4.24	76.67	76.67	2.26	2.26
American	Pat	4.14	4.14	62.07	62.07	1.00	1.00
Colgate	Pat	4.14	4.14	28.57	28.57	-1.77	-1.77
Army	Pat	4.10	4.10	40.74	40.74	-0.76	-0.76
Navy	Pat	4.07	4.07	7.69	7.69	-3.44	-3.44
St. Francis PA	NEC	2.08	2.08	21.43	21.43	-1.19	-1.19
St. Francis NY	NEC	2.04	2.04	51.72	51.72	0.07	0.07
Long Island	NEC	2.01	2.01	75.00	75.00	1.01	1.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	2.01	2.01	10.71	10.71	-1.58	-1.58
Monmouth	NEC	1.99	1.99	38.71	38.71	-0.45	-0.45
Wagner	NEC	1.98	1.98	80.00	80.00	1.19	1.19
Columbia	Ivy	1.96	1.96	44.44	44.44	-0.22	-0.22
Sacred Heart	NEC	1.96	1.96	41.94	41.94	-0.32	-0.32
Princeton	Ivy	1.82	1.82	59.26	59.26	0.34	0.34
Pennsylvania	Ivy	1.80	1.80	60.00	60.00	0.36	0.36
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	1.80	1.80	37.04	37.04	-0.47	-0.47
La Salle	A10	1.80	1.80	62.50	62.50	0.45	0.45
Vanderbilt	SEC	1.71	1.71	69.70	69.70	0.68	0.68
Delaware	CAA	1.66	1.66	56.67	56.67	0.22	0.22
Penn St.	B10	1.64	1.64	38.71	38.71	-0.37	-0.37
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.55	0.55	58.06	58.06	0.09	0.09
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.45	0.45	27.59	27.59	-0.20	-0.20
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.44	0.44	13.79	13.79	-0.32	-0.32
Robert Morris	NEC	0.42	0.42	70.59	70.59	0.17	0.17
Cornell	Ivy	0.40	0.40	40.74	40.74	-0.07	-0.07
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.37	0.37	44.83	44.83	-0.04	-0.04
Bryant	NEC	0.37	0.37	6.67	6.67	-0.32	-0.32
Yale	Ivy	0.33	0.33	65.38	65.38	0.10	0.10
Brown	Ivy	0.30	0.30	23.33	23.33	-0.16	-0.16
Harvard	Ivy	0.28	0.28	86.21	86.21	0.20	0.20
Marist	MAAC	0.24	0.24	43.75	43.75	-0.03	-0.03
Longwood	ind	0.22	0.22	22.22	22.22	-0.12	-0.12
Richmond	A10	0.20	0.20	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Albany	AE	0.19	0.19	57.58	57.58	0.03	0.03
Binghamton	AE	0.18	0.18	6.45	6.45	-0.16	-0.16
Hofstra	CAA	0.18	0.18	31.25	31.25	-0.07	-0.07
New Hampshire	AE	0.16	0.16	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.16	0.16	20.69	20.69	-0.09	-0.09
Hartford	AE	0.16	0.16	29.03	29.03	-0.07	-0.07
Fordham	A10	0.15	0.15	34.48	34.48	-0.05	-0.05
Villanova	BE	0.15	0.15	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
George Mason	CAA	0.15	0.15	72.73	72.73	0.07	0.07
Connecticut	BE	0.14	0.14	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Boston College	ACC	0.13	0.13	29.03	29.03	-0.06	-0.06
Syracuse	BE	0.13	0.13	93.94	93.94	0.11	0.11
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.13	0.13	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Boston University	AE	0.13	0.13	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Elon	SC	0.12	0.12	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.11	0.11	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.11	0.11	25.00	25.00	-0.06	-0.06
Providence	BE	0.11	0.11	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	75.00	75.00	0.05	0.05
Drexel	CAA	0.11	0.11	81.82	81.82	0.07	0.07
Rutgers	BE	0.11	0.11	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.10	0.10	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
Rider	MAAC	0.10	0.10	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Pittsburgh	BE	0.10	0.10	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.10	0.10	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Hampton	MEAC	0.10	0.10	36.36	36.36	-0.03	-0.03
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.10	0.10	16.13	16.13	-0.07	-0.07
Towson	CAA	0.10	0.10	3.12	3.12	-0.10	-0.10
Temple	A10	0.10	0.10	77.42	77.42	0.06	0.06
Minnesota	B10	0.10	0.10	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.10	0.10	94.12	94.12	0.09	0.09
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.09	0.09	25.93	25.93	-0.04	-0.04
North Dakota	GWC	0.09	0.09	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Siena	MAAC	0.09	0.09	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.09	0.09	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
College of Charleston	SC	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Fairfield	MAAC	0.08	0.08	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Maine	AE	0.08	0.08	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.08	0.08	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
Air Force	MWC	0.08	0.08	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.08	0.08	73.33	73.33	0.04	0.04
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.08	0.08	13.33	13.33	-0.06	-0.06
Massachusetts	A10	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
St. John's	BE	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
William & Mary	CAA	0.08	0.08	16.13	16.13	-0.05	-0.05
Radford	BSth	0.08	0.08	13.33	13.33	-0.06	-0.06
Indiana	B10	0.08	0.08	75.76	75.76	0.04	0.04
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.08	0.08	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Michigan St.	B10	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Mississippi	SEC	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.07	0.07	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.06	0.06	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Chicago St.	GWC	0.06	0.06	10.71	10.71	-0.05	-0.05
Mercer	ASun	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Missouri	B12	0.06	0.06	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Tulane	CUSA	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.06	0.06	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.05	0.05	82.35	82.35	0.03	0.03
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Vermont	AE	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia St.	CAA	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.05	74.29	74.29	0.03	0.03
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Davidson	SC	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	64.29	64.29	0.01	0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
North Texas	SB	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Niagara	MAAC	0.03	0.03	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Santa Clara	WCC	0.03	0.03	21.43	21.43	-0.01	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Illinois	B10	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Lipscomb	ASun	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Notre Dame	BE	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
South Florida	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Charlotte	A10	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Dayton	A10	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.02	0.02	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Texas St.	Slnd	0.02	0.02	34.62	34.62	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.02	0.02	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.02	0.02	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Marquette	BE	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.02	0.02	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.02	0.02	80.00	80.00	0.01	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Oregon	P12	0.02	0.02	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00