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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Lafayette

Conference:Pat
Expected RPI:279.9
Current RPI:275
Expected SOS:212
Current SOS:246
Current Record:2-4
Expected Record:9-19
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-8
Current OOC Record:2-4
Expected OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC RPI:266
Expected OOC SOS:220



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-11149.00.01%
16-12158.00.06%
15-13176.30.30%
14-14191.41.07%
13-15210.52.85%
12-16231.06.29%
11-17249.011.46%
10-18266.515.59%
9-19282.019.21%
8-20295.718.08%
7-21308.713.57%
6-22318.47.20%
5-23327.03.16%
4-24332.70.89%
3-25338.00.25%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Lafayette.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Villanova (7.4)BEA88-48L0%0.0
11-14Saint Peter's (178.9)MAACA57-61W100%0.0
11-17NJIT (192.6)ASunH84-83W100%0.0
11-20Cornell (260.9)IvyH75-82L0%0.0
11-23Princeton (95.0)IvyH55-71L0%0.0
11-30Drexel (245.8)CAAH70-74L0%0.0
12-5St. Francis NY (314.7)NECA0-049%-0.3
12-7Penn (138.5)IvyA0-011%-14.8
12-11Sacred Heart (299.9)NECH0-066%5.1
12-22Saint Joseph's (121.4)A10A0-010%-15.2
12-30Colgate (231.7)PatH0-047%-0.8
1-2Loyola MD (218.3)PatA0-030%-6.3
1-5Army (208.3)PatH0-042%-2.5
1-8Boston University (172.4)PatH0-034%-4.9
1-11Holy Cross (183.0)PatA0-025%-8.3
1-14Navy (221.2)PatH0-044%-1.8
1-18American (262.3)PatA0-032%-5.7
1-21Lehigh (83.7)PatA0-08%-16.7
1-25Bucknell (97.9)PatH0-024%-8.3
1-28Loyola MD (218.3)PatH0-049%-0.2
2-1Army (208.3)PatA0-023%-8.7
2-5Boston University (172.4)PatA0-018%-11.1
2-8Holy Cross (183.0)PatH0-043%-2.1
2-11Navy (221.2)PatA0-025%-7.9
2-15American (262.3)PatH0-052%0.5
2-19Lehigh (83.7)PatH0-019%-10.5
2-22Bucknell (97.9)PatA0-011%-14.5
2-25Colgate (231.7)PatA0-028%-6.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Lafayette's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Lafayette's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Lafayette.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
LafayettePat29.2626.4129.4131.05-12.05-10.01
ColgatePat1.194.6120.0039.82-0.71-0.94
BucknellPat0.004.5975.0066.670.001.53
Holy CrossPat0.004.5842.8646.41-0.00-0.33
NavyPat0.004.5828.5742.02-0.00-0.73
LehighPat1.044.5833.3365.52-0.351.42
ArmyPat0.004.5833.3343.97-0.00-0.55
Boston UniversityPat0.834.5850.0052.010.000.18
AmericanPat0.004.5716.6733.98-0.00-1.47
Loyola MDPat0.004.5433.3338.97-0.00-1.00
PennIvy0.602.0740.0056.77-0.120.28
PrincetonIvy8.332.070.0062.51-8.330.52
CornellIvy8.331.9816.6727.96-5.56-0.87
St. Francis NYNEC0.001.9316.6728.62-0.00-0.83
Saint Joseph'sA100.001.9150.0045.300.00-0.18
VillanovaBE8.331.91100.0082.568.331.24
Sacred HeartNEC0.001.9042.8638.20-0.00-0.45
Saint Peter'sMAAC8.331.8875.0054.584.170.17
DrexelCAA8.331.8533.3334.65-2.78-0.57
NJITASun8.331.8550.0052.180.000.08
ColumbiaIvy0.000.4142.8642.47-0.00-0.06
FairfieldMAAC0.000.3083.3362.080.000.07
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.3012.5048.98-0.00-0.01
YaleIvy0.000.2933.3364.14-0.000.08
MonmouthMAAC1.190.2871.4371.570.510.12
St. Francis PANEC0.600.2740.0043.86-0.12-0.03
La SalleA100.600.2760.0051.780.120.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.2725.0039.28-0.00-0.06
BrownIvy0.000.2650.0042.420.00-0.04
HarvardIvy0.000.260.0043.04-0.00-0.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.2483.3357.990.000.04
UMass LowellAE0.000.2225.0040.81-0.00-0.04
BinghamtonAE0.600.2242.8640.94-0.09-0.04
NortheasternCAA0.600.2257.1448.240.09-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.2166.6770.140.000.09
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.830.2120.0034.22-0.50-0.07
DartmouthIvy0.000.200.0023.47-0.00-0.11
Notre DameACC0.000.18100.0075.010.000.09
New HampshireAE0.000.1850.0057.480.000.03
AlbanyAE0.000.1850.0060.380.000.04
BryantNEC0.000.1828.5750.20-0.000.00
WagnerNEC0.000.1833.3353.85-0.000.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.1616.6733.82-0.00-0.05
DuquesneA100.000.1537.5034.65-0.00-0.05
CanisiusMAAC0.000.1533.3341.52-0.00-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.1540.0037.65-0.00-0.04
SienaMAAC0.600.1528.5750.51-0.260.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.600.1562.5056.500.150.02
ManhattanMAAC0.000.1533.3338.19-0.00-0.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.1516.6734.31-0.00-0.05
Arkansas St.SB0.000.1385.7168.390.000.05
TempleAmer0.000.1271.4363.570.000.03
TowsonCAA0.000.1250.0054.490.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.1233.3338.20-0.00-0.03
CreightonBE0.000.12100.0076.650.000.06
XavierBE0.000.12100.0074.800.000.06
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.1271.4350.570.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.1266.6770.740.000.05
HartfordAE0.600.1212.5022.55-0.45-0.07
MaineAE0.000.1216.6725.61-0.00-0.06
FordhamA100.830.1257.1443.680.12-0.01
MaristMAAC0.000.1242.8635.68-0.00-0.03
MassachusettsA100.000.1283.3358.080.000.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.1271.4370.330.000.05
ButlerBE0.000.12100.0075.690.000.06
LipscombASun0.830.0914.2933.07-0.60-0.03
IonaMAAC0.000.0960.0070.140.000.04
High PointBSth0.000.0950.0051.260.000.00
MarylandB100.000.0985.7156.490.000.01
ElonCAA0.000.0983.3358.030.000.01
NiagaraMAAC0.600.0916.6727.03-0.40-0.04
RiderMAAC0.000.0950.0047.990.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0957.1440.550.00-0.02
RichmondA100.000.0957.1448.600.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.0971.4356.280.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.090.0038.35-0.00-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0916.6740.71-0.00-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.600.0971.4352.370.260.00
VCUA101.040.0685.7178.150.740.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0650.0071.330.000.03
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0657.1459.480.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0628.5730.29-0.00-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0671.4343.020.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0614.2931.71-0.00-0.02
StetsonASun0.000.0628.5728.26-0.00-0.03
George MasonA100.000.0657.1442.940.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.600.0683.3374.620.400.03
Air ForceMWC0.000.0650.0042.710.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0683.3369.840.000.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0614.2929.15-0.00-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0633.3338.76-0.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.000.0620.0049.38-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.000.060.0038.26-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.060.0034.23-0.00-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0650.0061.810.000.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0685.7172.660.000.03
OregonP120.000.0671.4366.730.000.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0666.6766.100.000.02
UMBCAE0.000.0680.0055.340.000.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0666.6758.420.000.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.060.0022.69-0.00-0.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0642.8637.60-0.00-0.02
PurdueB101.190.0671.4374.450.510.03
CampbellBSth0.000.0625.0033.54-0.00-0.02
DelawareCAA0.000.0640.0040.65-0.00-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.060.0028.15-0.00-0.03
Penn St.B100.000.0662.5043.960.00-0.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0640.0027.05-0.00-0.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0683.3377.170.000.03
William & MaryCAA0.000.0640.0055.44-0.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.06100.0082.550.000.04
DePaulBE0.000.0680.0035.960.00-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.0650.0047.560.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.000.0671.4354.520.000.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.06100.0080.780.000.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0027.77-0.00-0.03
St. John'sBE0.000.0628.5733.92-0.00-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0657.1448.860.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0671.4363.090.000.02
BYUWCC1.040.0371.4368.660.450.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0333.3335.92-0.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0383.3363.610.000.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.030.0034.18-0.00-0.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0350.0050.940.000.00
LibertyBSth0.000.0340.0050.71-0.000.00
HoustonAmer0.600.0383.3376.370.400.02
Miami FLACC0.000.0371.4365.740.000.01
TroySB0.000.0333.3332.23-0.00-0.01
USCP120.000.03100.0075.380.000.02
WyomingMWC0.000.0360.0048.590.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.600.0360.0067.410.120.01
Idaho St.BSky0.600.0314.2929.81-0.43-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0350.0051.820.000.00
MinnesotaB100.000.0385.7165.670.000.01
Utah St.MWC0.600.0350.0053.560.000.00
DavidsonA100.000.0383.3368.880.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0366.6772.440.000.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0357.1444.160.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0038.51-0.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0350.0066.170.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0366.6754.420.000.00
MississippiSEC0.000.0371.4346.010.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.600.0340.0030.80-0.12-0.01
RutgersB100.600.0383.3344.770.40-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0333.3326.75-0.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.030.0024.19-0.00-0.02
ToledoMAC0.000.0342.8650.36-0.000.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0325.0024.28-0.00-0.02
ArizonaP120.000.0385.7170.990.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0350.0027.250.00-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0337.5036.24-0.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.600.0316.6736.45-0.40-0.01