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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Lafayette

Conference:Pat
Expected RPI:258.0
Current RPI:258
Expected SOS:207
Current SOS:207
Current Record:10-20
Expected Record:10-20
Current Conf Record:7-13
Expected Conf Record:7-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-8
Current OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC RPI:226
Expected OOC SOS:188



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-20258.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Lafayette.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Villanova (5.0)BEA75-59L0%0.0
11-12Robert Morris (129.0)NECH81-90L0%0.0
11-20Princeton (122.0)IvyA81-80L0%0.0
11-23NJIT (308.0)indA91-88L0%0.0
11-26Yale (147.0)IvyH76-79L0%0.0
11-30Penn (284.0)IvyH79-76W100%0.0
12-3Wagner (218.0)NECA65-77W100%0.0
12-7Sacred Heart (338.0)NECA79-86W100%0.0
12-19St. Francis NY (190.0)NECA65-62L0%0.0
12-27Seton Hall (128.0)BEA90-58L0%0.0
1-2Army (235.0)PatH66-85L0%0.0
1-5Navy (321.0)PatA79-71L0%0.0
1-8Bucknell (167.0)PatH86-96L0%0.0
1-11Boston University (84.0)PatH78-89L0%0.0
1-13Loyola MD (274.0)PatA77-63L0%0.0
1-18American (118.0)PatA66-61L0%0.0
1-22Holy Cross (127.0)PatH58-59L0%0.0
1-25Lehigh (236.0)PatA71-68L0%0.0
1-27Colgate (256.0)PatH68-75L0%0.0
2-1Navy (321.0)PatH72-54W100%0.0
2-5Bucknell (167.0)PatA58-66W100%0.0
2-8Boston University (84.0)PatA88-54L0%0.0
2-12Loyola MD (274.0)PatH61-44W100%0.0
2-15American (118.0)PatH74-62W100%0.0
2-19Holy Cross (127.0)PatA64-76W100%0.0
2-23Lehigh (236.0)PatH77-71W100%0.0
2-26Colgate (256.0)PatA83-66L0%0.0
3-1Army (235.0)PatA87-84L0%0.0
3-3Loyola MD (274.0)PatA71-84W100%0.0
3-5Boston University (84.0)PatA91-54L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Lafayette's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Lafayette's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Lafayette.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
LafayettePat26.5226.5236.2336.23-7.30-7.30
Boston UniversityPat6.046.0467.7467.742.142.14
Loyola MDPat5.915.9134.6234.62-1.82-1.82
ArmyPat4.494.4942.8642.86-0.64-0.64
AmericanPat4.494.4963.3363.331.201.20
Holy CrossPat4.474.4760.0060.000.890.89
ColgatePat4.414.4135.7135.71-1.26-1.26
BucknellPat4.394.3953.5753.570.310.31
LehighPat4.394.3943.3343.33-0.59-0.59
NavyPat4.354.3525.9325.93-2.10-2.10
Sacred HeartNEC1.961.9616.6716.67-1.31-1.31
St. Francis NYNEC1.891.8953.3353.330.130.13
PennIvy1.881.8829.6329.63-0.76-0.76
NJITind1.861.8633.3333.33-0.62-0.62
PrincetonIvy1.841.8469.2369.230.710.71
Robert MorrisNEC1.831.8360.6160.610.390.39
WagnerNEC1.831.8362.0762.070.440.44
YaleIvy1.811.8150.0050.000.000.00
Seton HallBE1.781.7848.4848.48-0.05-0.05
VillanovaBE1.771.7787.1087.101.311.31
St. Francis PANEC0.520.5232.2632.26-0.18-0.18
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.480.4850.0050.000.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.430.4360.0060.000.090.09
LIU BrooklynNEC0.370.3731.0331.03-0.14-0.14
BryantNEC0.320.3254.8454.840.030.03
CornellIvy0.320.323.703.70-0.30-0.30
HarvardIvy0.310.3186.2186.210.220.22
UMBCAE0.310.3127.5927.59-0.14-0.14
Central ConnecticutNEC0.280.2834.4834.48-0.09-0.09
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.270.2731.0331.03-0.10-0.10
BrownIvy0.260.2651.8551.850.010.01
AlbanyAE0.260.2656.2556.250.030.03
FairfieldMAAC0.220.2221.8821.88-0.12-0.12
Saint Joseph'sA100.220.2272.7372.730.100.10
BinghamtonAE0.200.2023.3323.33-0.11-0.11
ConnecticutAmer0.190.1976.4776.470.100.10
ButlerBE0.190.1943.3343.33-0.03-0.03
St. John'sBE0.180.1862.5062.500.050.05
DartmouthIvy0.180.1838.4638.46-0.04-0.04
HartfordAE0.160.1651.5251.520.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.160.1654.8454.840.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.160.1667.6567.650.060.06
Penn St.B100.140.1446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.140.1417.2417.24-0.09-0.09
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.140.1417.8617.86-0.09-0.09
RutgersAmer0.140.1434.3834.38-0.04-0.04
UMass LowellAE0.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
RiderMAAC0.140.1445.1645.16-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.130.1332.2632.26-0.05-0.05
QuinnipiacMAAC0.130.1364.5264.520.040.04
MaineAE0.120.1217.8617.86-0.08-0.08
Miami FLACC0.110.1151.5251.520.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
The CitadelSC0.110.1113.7913.79-0.08-0.08
George MasonA100.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.110.1134.3834.38-0.03-0.03
SyracuseACC0.110.1184.3884.380.070.07
DelawareCAA0.110.1173.5373.530.050.05
CreightonBE0.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
DePaulBE0.100.1036.3636.36-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
XavierBE0.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
TulaneCUSA0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
West VirginiaB120.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
MaristMAAC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
George WashingtonA100.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
MarylandACC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0783.8783.870.050.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
HofstraCAA0.060.0630.3030.30-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
DuquesneA100.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.060.0682.3582.350.040.04
IowaB100.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
TempleAmer0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0614.8114.81-0.04-0.04
Notre DameACC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
MercerASun0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0521.2121.21-0.03-0.03
BelmontOVC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
HoustonAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
HowardMEAC0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
MichiganB100.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
MinnesotaB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Ohio St.B100.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
PittsburghACC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
UICHorz0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
StetsonASun0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
DaytonA100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
KansasB120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
USCP120.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.020.0264.2964.290.010.01
CampbellBSth0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
KentuckySEC0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
OklahomaB120.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.020.0281.2581.250.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00