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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Lafayette

Conference:Pat
Expected RPI:122.0
Current RPI:122
Expected SOS:181
Current SOS:181
Current Record:19-12
Expected Record:19-12
Current Conf Record:12-9
Expected Conf Record:12-9
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-2
Current OOC Record:7-3
Expected OOC Record:7-3
Expected OOC RPI:38
Expected OOC SOS:134



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-12122.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Lafayette.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Robert Morris (171.0)NECA50-77W100%0.0
11-16West Virginia (24.0)B12A83-56L0%0.0
11-19Princeton (191.0)IvyH83-66W100%0.0
11-22Penn (254.0)IvyA77-83W100%0.0
11-26Yale (64.0)IvyA82-60L0%0.0
11-30Fairleigh Dickinson (312.0)NECA61-82W100%0.0
12-6Wagner (294.0)NECH97-84W100%0.0
12-8Sacred Heart (242.0)NECH82-81W100%0.0
12-20Kansas (2.0)B12A96-69L0%0.0
12-28NJIT (159.0)indH76-71W100%0.0
12-31Army (235.0)PatA78-92W100%0.0
1-3Navy (252.0)PatH65-69L0%0.0
1-7Bucknell (136.0)PatA79-69L0%0.0
1-10Boston University (198.0)PatA62-63W100%0.0
1-14Loyola MD (270.0)PatH69-65W100%0.0
1-17American (135.0)PatH76-78L0%0.0
1-21Holy Cross (200.0)PatA74-73L0%0.0
1-24Lehigh (175.0)PatH71-75L0%0.0
1-28Colgate (194.0)PatA54-59W100%0.0
1-31Navy (252.0)PatA65-74W100%0.0
2-4Bucknell (136.0)PatH84-74W100%0.0
2-9Boston University (198.0)PatH60-74L0%0.0
2-11Loyola MD (270.0)PatA62-43L0%0.0
2-14American (135.0)PatA88-77L0%0.0
2-18Holy Cross (200.0)PatH89-81W100%0.0
2-22Lehigh (175.0)PatA61-63W100%0.0
2-25Colgate (194.0)PatH83-95L0%0.0
2-28Army (235.0)PatH74-64W100%0.0
3-5Boston University (198.0)PatH89-64W100%0.0
3-8Bucknell (136.0)PatA74-80W100%0.0
3-11American (135.0)PatH65-63W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Lafayette's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Lafayette's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Lafayette.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
LafayettePat26.6126.6162.4262.426.616.61
AmericanPat5.915.9150.0050.000.000.00
BucknellPat5.855.8558.6258.621.011.01
Boston UniversityPat5.785.7842.3142.31-0.89-0.89
Holy CrossPat4.414.4144.4444.44-0.49-0.49
ColgatePat4.394.3946.6746.67-0.29-0.29
NavyPat4.374.3737.9337.93-1.05-1.05
LehighPat4.304.3051.8551.850.160.16
Loyola MDPat4.284.2835.7135.71-1.22-1.22
ArmyPat4.284.2851.8551.850.160.16
Sacred HeartNEC1.911.9146.6746.67-0.13-0.13
WagnerNEC1.821.8232.1432.14-0.65-0.65
Robert MorrisNEC1.811.8159.3859.380.340.34
PennIvy1.801.8033.3333.33-0.60-0.60
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC1.801.8025.9325.93-0.87-0.87
YaleIvy1.781.7865.5265.520.550.55
PrincetonIvy1.751.7553.5753.570.130.13
NJITind1.701.7058.3358.330.280.28
KansasB121.661.6675.7675.760.860.86
West VirginiaB121.661.6670.9770.970.700.70
ColumbiaIvy0.530.5344.4444.44-0.06-0.06
St. Francis PANEC0.430.4350.0050.000.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.420.4250.0050.000.000.00
BryantNEC0.350.3551.6151.610.010.01
HarvardIvy0.330.3374.0774.070.160.16
St. Francis NYNEC0.330.3366.6766.670.110.11
BrownIvy0.320.3237.9337.93-0.08-0.08
LIU BrooklynNEC0.300.3040.0040.00-0.06-0.06
AlbanyAE0.270.2775.0075.000.140.14
CornellIvy0.270.2741.3841.38-0.05-0.05
BinghamtonAE0.270.2716.6716.67-0.18-0.18
Central ConnecticutNEC0.250.2516.1316.13-0.17-0.17
DartmouthIvy0.200.2050.0050.000.000.00
VillanovaBE0.190.1994.1294.120.170.17
UMass LowellAE0.170.1739.2939.29-0.04-0.04
QuinnipiacMAAC0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
RiderMAAC0.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
MaristMAAC0.160.1621.8821.88-0.09-0.09
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.160.1656.2556.250.020.02
New HampshireAE0.160.1658.6258.620.030.03
SyracuseACC0.160.1658.0658.060.030.03
Stony BrookAE0.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
La SalleA100.150.1551.5251.520.000.00
Texas TechB120.150.1540.6240.62-0.03-0.03
MaineAE0.150.1510.0010.00-0.12-0.12
BaylorB120.150.1571.8871.880.060.06
UMBCAE0.140.1413.3313.33-0.10-0.10
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.140.1447.0647.06-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.140.1467.6567.650.050.05
VMISC0.130.1332.1432.14-0.05-0.05
FairfieldMAAC0.130.1322.5822.58-0.07-0.07
SienaMAAC0.130.1335.4835.48-0.04-0.04
TempleAmer0.130.1369.7069.700.050.05
Iowa St.B120.120.1275.7675.760.060.06
TCUB120.120.1254.5554.550.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
DelawareCAA0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
HartfordAE0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.110.11100.00100.000.110.11
Arizona St.P120.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
Kansas St.B120.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
Oklahoma St.B120.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
TexasB120.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
DaytonA100.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
MonmouthMAAC0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
Notre DameACC0.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
TowsonCAA0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
CampbellBSth0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
James MadisonCAA0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Ohio St.B100.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
Michigan St.B100.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
Penn St.B100.080.0852.9452.940.000.00
IllinoisB100.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.070.0721.4321.43-0.04-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
DuquesneA100.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.060.0687.8887.880.040.04
PittsburghACC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
USCP120.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
ButlerBE0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
George MasonA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
HowardMEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0358.3358.330.000.00
LibertyBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.030.030.000.00-0.03-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0327.2727.27-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
BradleyMVC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
ClemsonACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.020.0268.5768.570.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
UNLVMWC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
UtahP120.020.0274.1974.190.010.01