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Through games of Feb 5, 2016.


Lafayette

Conference:Pat
Expected RPI:310.9
Current RPI:313
Expected SOS:248
Current SOS:253
Current Record:5-16
Expected Record:7-21
Current Conf Record:2-8
Expected Conf Record:4-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-12
Current OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:268
Expected OOC SOS:229



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-16227.00.01%
11-17247.80.34%
10-18268.72.12%
9-19285.89.50%
8-20300.522.23%
7-21313.331.56%
6-22323.925.85%
5-23331.68.38%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Lafayette.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13George Washington (52.7)A10A85-76L0%0.0
11-15Saint Peter's (228.5)MAACH87-86W100%0.0
11-21NJIT (192.1)ASunA80-66L0%0.0
11-23La Salle (257.9)A10A83-75L0%0.0
11-25Princeton (55.9)IvyA104-52L0%0.0
11-29Penn (286.4)IvyH92-86W100%0.0
12-2St. Francis NY (289.6)NECH62-69L0%0.0
12-5Cornell (202.2)IvyA85-67L0%0.0
12-9Fairleigh Dickinson (213.6)NECH89-91L0%0.0
12-12Sacred Heart (283.7)NECA86-90W100%0.0
12-23USC (19.7)P12A100-64L0%0.0
12-30Colgate (234.3)PatA77-70L0%0.0
1-2Loyola MD (245.5)PatH78-81L0%0.0
1-6Army (209.5)PatA73-76W100%0.0
1-9Boston University (199.1)PatA68-47L0%0.0
1-13Holy Cross (284.8)PatH65-52W100%0.0
1-16Navy (174.2)PatA87-61L0%0.0
1-20American (256.8)PatH73-81L0%0.0
1-25Bucknell (175.1)PatA79-67L0%0.0
1-30Loyola MD (245.5)PatA84-77L0%0.0
2-3Army (209.5)PatH81-84L0%0.0
2-6Boston University (199.1)PatH0-034%-4.5
2-10Holy Cross (284.8)PatA0-031%-5.3
2-13Navy (174.2)PatH0-029%-6.1
2-17American (256.8)PatA0-035%-4.1
2-21Lehigh (227.5)PatA0-017%-10.6
2-24Bucknell (175.1)PatH0-022%-8.5
2-27Colgate (234.3)PatH0-040%-2.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Lafayette's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Lafayette's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Lafayette.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
LafayettePat26.4026.3625.2725.76-13.06-12.78
ArmyPat5.364.5655.0056.470.540.59
NavyPat3.054.5463.6463.770.831.25
Boston UniversityPat2.974.5450.0052.350.000.21
Holy CrossPat3.034.5342.8640.11-0.43-0.90
BucknellPat3.104.5350.0054.280.000.39
ColgatePat3.044.5340.0040.70-0.61-0.84
AmericanPat2.984.5028.5729.04-1.28-1.89
Loyola MDPat5.204.5025.0029.50-2.60-1.85
LehighPat0.702.7730.0034.27-0.28-0.87
PrincetonIvy2.622.0568.7573.520.980.96
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC2.722.0350.0052.110.000.09
CornellIvy2.492.0141.1838.87-0.44-0.45
PennIvy2.572.0137.5036.03-0.64-0.56
St. Francis NYNEC2.651.9731.8239.58-0.97-0.41
Sacred HeartNEC2.601.9733.3336.41-0.87-0.54
Saint Peter'sMAAC2.681.9440.0043.47-0.54-0.25
George WashingtonA102.551.9176.1970.721.330.79
NJITASun2.481.8850.0052.890.000.11
La SalleA102.451.8516.6717.98-1.63-1.18
USCP122.381.7977.2772.241.300.79
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.380.4041.6746.85-0.06-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.240.3365.0064.310.070.09
YaleIvy0.300.3272.2273.760.130.15
HarvardIvy0.240.3236.8441.45-0.06-0.05
Robert MorrisNEC0.290.3125.0029.52-0.14-0.13
St. Francis PANEC0.330.3147.6249.35-0.02-0.00
BrownIvy0.320.2933.3331.83-0.11-0.11
AlbanyAE0.330.2873.9175.010.160.14
BinghamtonAE0.350.2522.7326.19-0.19-0.12
New HampshireAE0.220.2552.6351.510.010.01
BryantNEC0.270.2526.0927.58-0.13-0.11
LIU BrooklynNEC0.330.2550.0050.860.000.00
WagnerNEC0.320.2561.9063.360.080.07
SienaMAAC0.340.2266.6767.290.110.08
Stony BrookAE0.280.2280.0082.460.170.14
FairfieldMAAC0.280.2252.1752.980.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.230.2213.6413.80-0.17-0.16
MonmouthMAAC0.330.2279.1780.770.200.13
Rhode IslandA100.220.2254.5555.990.020.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.160.2238.1037.53-0.04-0.05
UMBCAE0.270.2220.8325.01-0.16-0.11
DartmouthIvy0.140.2033.3332.01-0.05-0.07
CanisiusMAAC0.170.1941.6743.85-0.03-0.02
FordhamA100.230.1957.8954.300.040.02
MaristMAAC0.280.1919.0521.40-0.17-0.11
George MasonA100.180.1936.3635.33-0.05-0.05
USC UpstateASun0.160.1823.8125.03-0.08-0.09
Saint Joseph'sA100.200.1681.8277.440.130.09
TowsonCAA0.280.1663.6457.330.080.02
UMass LowellAE0.220.1533.3332.88-0.07-0.05
HartfordAE0.220.1526.0926.47-0.10-0.07
MassachusettsA100.170.1542.8639.84-0.02-0.03
VCUA100.120.1577.2776.780.060.08
SyracuseACC0.120.1366.6762.710.040.03
RiderMAAC0.250.1341.6743.51-0.04-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.110.1345.0043.19-0.01-0.02
KansasB120.160.1280.9577.000.100.07
MaineAE0.160.1236.3635.58-0.04-0.04
St. BonaventureA100.110.1270.0069.070.040.05
JacksonvilleASun0.100.1247.6247.86-0.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.160.1220.8320.11-0.09-0.07
OregonP120.100.1281.8278.210.070.07
Georgia TechACC0.120.1054.5552.750.010.01
TempleAmer0.190.1061.9058.420.050.02
VillanovaBE0.190.1086.3685.330.140.07
HamptonMEAC0.120.0960.0061.350.020.02
LipscombASun0.170.0921.7427.64-0.10-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.110.0945.0049.60-0.01-0.00
DaytonA100.180.0985.7181.220.130.06
Penn St.B100.110.0947.8343.63-0.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.160.0966.6763.480.050.02
North FloridaASun0.100.0968.1869.350.040.04
WashingtonP120.170.0968.1862.190.060.02
Saint LouisA100.110.0938.1033.38-0.03-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.160.0942.8647.27-0.02-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.160.0950.0048.260.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.100.0972.7369.690.050.04
DavidsonA100.050.0957.8955.400.010.01
DuquesneA100.120.0966.6758.760.040.02
RichmondA100.120.0952.3853.680.010.01
DrexelCAA0.130.0614.2918.63-0.09-0.04
Miami FLACC0.130.0680.9575.640.080.03
IonaMAAC0.110.0659.0959.680.020.01
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0625.0025.48-0.03-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0652.1749.340.00-0.00
TCUB120.060.0645.4537.84-0.01-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.060.0645.4542.14-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.120.0631.8232.92-0.04-0.02
HofstraCAA0.120.0668.1865.420.040.02
VirginiaACC0.050.0681.8276.020.030.03
Air ForceMWC0.110.0642.8635.05-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.110.0621.7424.60-0.06-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0622.7324.28-0.03-0.03
LSUSEC0.050.0663.6459.440.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0627.2732.84-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.050.0625.0029.75-0.03-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.110.0665.0060.810.030.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0631.8233.75-0.02-0.02
RutgersB100.110.0622.7320.68-0.06-0.04
Seton HallBE0.110.0672.7368.630.050.02
St. John'sBE0.100.0627.2724.41-0.05-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0661.9059.930.010.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0668.1867.800.020.02
FurmanSC0.050.0654.5553.780.000.00
IPFWSum0.050.0673.9170.210.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.050.0647.8348.69-0.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0630.0033.57-0.02-0.02
VMISC0.050.0616.6718.97-0.03-0.04
ArizonaP120.050.0678.2677.230.030.03
Arizona St.P120.050.0652.1750.240.000.00
Oregon St.P120.050.0660.0054.590.010.01
UCLAP120.100.0656.5253.350.010.00
Washington St.P120.100.0638.1033.45-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0310.0014.87-0.06-0.02
HowardMEAC0.070.0340.0042.53-0.01-0.00
MarylandB100.070.0386.9681.770.050.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0338.1047.51-0.02-0.00
PittsburghACC0.070.0380.0070.290.040.01
PurdueB100.000.0382.6178.230.000.02
DelawareCAA0.060.0322.7323.64-0.03-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0372.7372.440.020.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0366.6761.680.020.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0378.2671.960.030.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0331.8226.61-0.02-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.050.0381.8277.490.030.02
Cal PolyBW0.050.0331.5836.16-0.02-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0330.0028.61-0.02-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0363.6461.810.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0373.9173.090.030.01
ColoradoP120.000.0372.7366.970.000.01
DePaulBE0.050.0336.3634.95-0.01-0.01
IdahoBSky0.050.0357.1457.940.010.00
New MexicoMWC0.050.0363.6464.090.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.050.0333.3329.23-0.02-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0318.1822.83-0.03-0.02
StanfordP120.000.0352.6347.690.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0340.0049.74-0.01-0.00
UCFAmer0.050.0355.0047.170.01-0.00
UtahP120.000.0372.7368.550.000.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0376.1979.640.030.02
XavierBE0.050.0390.9184.430.040.02