Lafayette

Conference:	Pat
Expected RPI:	311.0
Current RPI:	311
Expected SOS:	288
Current SOS:	288
Current Record:	9-21
Expected Record:	9-21
Current Conf Record:	8-12
Expected Conf Record:	8-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-14
Current OOC Record:	1-9
Expected OOC Record:	1-9
Expected OOC RPI:	341
Expected OOC SOS:	257

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
9-21	311.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Lafayette.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	George Mason (201.0)	A10	A	67-65	L	0%
11-14	NJIT (269.0)	ASun	A	96-80	L	0%
11-17	Villanova (2.0)	BE	N	104-57	L	0%
11-22	Princeton (226.0)	Ivy	A	60-46	L	0%
11-26	Saint Peter's (251.0)	MAAC	H	82-86	L	0%
11-29	Drexel (242.0)	CAA	A	68-67	L	0%
12-2	Quinnipiac (277.0)	MAAC	H	79-58	W	100%
12-6	Penn (112.0)	Ivy	H	68-73	L	0%
12-9	Sacred Heart (321.0)	NEC	A	62-50	L	0%
12-20	Cornell (248.0)	Ivy	A	80-71	L	0%
12-29	Lehigh (214.0)	Pat	H	74-79	L	0%
1-2	Holy Cross (265.0)	Pat	H	60-48	W	100%
1-5	Colgate (185.0)	Pat	A	68-71	W	100%
1-8	Bucknell (80.0)	Pat	H	75-80	L	0%
1-11	Army (280.0)	Pat	A	81-71	L	0%
1-14	Loyola MD (322.0)	Pat	A	83-77	L	0%
1-17	Navy (200.0)	Pat	H	72-75	L	0%
1-20	American (336.0)	Pat	A	53-62	W	100%
1-24	Boston University (212.0)	Pat	H	72-75	L	0%
1-27	Holy Cross (265.0)	Pat	A	85-74	L	0%
1-31	Colgate (185.0)	Pat	H	93-83	W	100%
2-3	Bucknell (80.0)	Pat	A	74-59	L	0%
2-7	Army (280.0)	Pat	H	81-54	W	100%
2-11	Loyola MD (322.0)	Pat	H	84-67	W	100%
2-14	Navy (200.0)	Pat	A	71-69	L	0%
2-17	American (336.0)	Pat	H	90-85	W	100%
2-21	Boston University (212.0)	Pat	A	81-65	L	0%
2-24	Lehigh (214.0)	Pat	A	79-64	L	0%
2-27	American (336.0)	Pat	H	93-86	W	100%
3-1	Colgate (185.0)	Pat	A	76-54	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Lafayette's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Lafayette's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Lafayette.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Lafayette	Pat	26.53	26.53	28.23	28.23	-11.55	-11.55
Colgate	Pat	6.10	6.10	60.71	60.71	1.31	1.31
American	Pat	5.93	5.93	22.22	22.22	-3.29	-3.29
Bucknell	Pat	4.52	4.52	71.88	71.88	1.98	1.98
Holy Cross	Pat	4.48	4.48	37.93	37.93	-1.08	-1.08
Loyola MD	Pat	4.45	4.45	25.00	25.00	-2.22	-2.22
Boston University	Pat	4.42	4.42	42.86	42.86	-0.63	-0.63
Navy	Pat	4.40	4.40	58.62	58.62	0.76	0.76
Lehigh	Pat	4.40	4.40	48.15	48.15	-0.16	-0.16
Army	Pat	4.37	4.37	40.74	40.74	-0.81	-0.81
Penn	Ivy	1.87	1.87	73.33	73.33	0.87	0.87
Cornell	Ivy	1.86	1.86	38.46	38.46	-0.43	-0.43
Princeton	Ivy	1.84	1.84	40.74	40.74	-0.34	-0.34
Drexel	CAA	1.78	1.78	35.48	35.48	-0.52	-0.52
NJIT	ASun	1.77	1.77	40.74	40.74	-0.33	-0.33
Sacred Heart	NEC	1.75	1.75	27.59	27.59	-0.78	-0.78
Saint Peter's	MAAC	1.74	1.74	41.94	41.94	-0.28	-0.28
Quinnipiac	MAAC	1.74	1.74	37.50	37.50	-0.44	-0.44
Villanova	BE	1.69	1.69	87.88	87.88	1.28	1.28
George Mason	A10	1.67	1.67	46.88	46.88	-0.10	-0.10
Columbia	Ivy	0.42	0.42	26.92	26.92	-0.19	-0.19
Marist	MAAC	0.36	0.36	19.35	19.35	-0.22	-0.22
Harvard	Ivy	0.34	0.34	56.67	56.67	0.05	0.05
Siena	MAAC	0.29	0.29	25.00	25.00	-0.14	-0.14
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.28	0.28	23.08	23.08	-0.15	-0.15
Binghamton	AE	0.28	0.28	31.03	31.03	-0.11	-0.11
Monmouth	MAAC	0.27	0.27	35.48	35.48	-0.08	-0.08
Yale	Ivy	0.26	0.26	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.25	0.25	53.33	53.33	0.02	0.02
La Salle	A10	0.23	0.23	40.62	40.62	-0.04	-0.04
Brown	Ivy	0.23	0.23	38.46	38.46	-0.05	-0.05
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.21	0.21	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UMass Lowell	AE	0.20	0.20	37.93	37.93	-0.05	-0.05
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.20	0.20	57.14	57.14	0.03	0.03
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.19	0.19	37.93	37.93	-0.05	-0.05
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.19	0.19	37.93	37.93	-0.05	-0.05
New Hampshire	AE	0.19	0.19	27.59	27.59	-0.09	-0.09
Niagara	MAAC	0.19	0.19	59.38	59.38	0.04	0.04
Albany	AE	0.19	0.19	67.74	67.74	0.07	0.07
Northeastern	CAA	0.19	0.19	68.75	68.75	0.07	0.07
Iona	MAAC	0.19	0.19	60.61	60.61	0.04	0.04
Fairfield	MAAC	0.18	0.18	51.52	51.52	0.01	0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.17	0.17	70.00	70.00	0.07	0.07
Connecticut	Amer	0.16	0.16	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Marquette	BE	0.16	0.16	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Massachusetts	A10	0.15	0.15	39.39	39.39	-0.03	-0.03
Rider	MAAC	0.15	0.15	70.97	70.97	0.06	0.06
Miami FL	ACC	0.14	0.14	70.97	70.97	0.06	0.06
UMBC	AE	0.14	0.14	67.74	67.74	0.05	0.05
Delaware	CAA	0.14	0.14	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Towson	CAA	0.13	0.13	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.13	0.13	60.00	60.00	0.03	0.03
Elon	CAA	0.13	0.13	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Manhattan	MAAC	0.13	0.13	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.13	0.13	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.11	0.11	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Lipscomb	ASun	0.11	0.11	68.97	68.97	0.04	0.04
West Virginia	B12	0.11	0.11	70.59	70.59	0.05	0.05
Syracuse	ACC	0.11	0.11	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.11	0.11	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.11	0.11	25.00	25.00	-0.06	-0.06
Howard	MEAC	0.11	0.11	25.81	25.81	-0.05	-0.05
Northwestern	B10	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.11	0.11	9.68	9.68	-0.09	-0.09
Maine	AE	0.11	0.11	13.33	13.33	-0.08	-0.08
Boston College	ACC	0.11	0.11	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
James Madison	CAA	0.10	0.10	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Butler	BE	0.10	0.10	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Providence	BE	0.10	0.10	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Richmond	A10	0.10	0.10	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
VCU	A10	0.10	0.10	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.09	0.09	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
USC	P12	0.09	0.09	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Kansas St.	B12	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.08	0.08	16.67	16.67	-0.06	-0.06
VMI	SC	0.08	0.08	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Western Illinois	Sum	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Wake Forest	ACC	0.08	0.08	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
George Washington	A10	0.08	0.08	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
College of Charleston	CAA	0.08	0.08	77.42	77.42	0.04	0.04
Temple	Amer	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
William & Mary	CAA	0.08	0.08	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
St. John's	BE	0.08	0.08	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Vermont	AE	0.07	0.07	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Jacksonville	ASun	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Stetson	ASun	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
USC Upstate	ASun	0.06	0.06	10.71	10.71	-0.05	-0.05
Toledo	MAC	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.06	0.06	93.94	93.94	0.05	0.05
Auburn	SEC	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Duquesne	A10	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Memphis	Amer	0.06	0.06	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	15.62	15.62	-0.04	-0.04
Denver	Sum	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Hartford	AE	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Creighton	BE	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Maryland	B10	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.43	71.43	0.02	0.02
Stony Brook	AE	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Xavier	BE	0.05	0.05	84.85	84.85	0.03	0.03
Longwood	BSth	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.02	0.02
BYU	WCC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Cal Poly	BW	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.02	-0.02
Hawaii	BW	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.03	0.03	76.67	76.67	0.02	0.02
Rutgers	B10	0.03	0.03	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
UMKC	WAC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Houston	Amer	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Mercer	SC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Davidson	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Fresno St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Georgia Southern	SB	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Louisville	ACC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Saint Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.02	0.02	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.02	0.02	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.02	0.02	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.02	0.02	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01