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Through games of Feb 22, 2017.


UMBC

Conference:AE
Expected RPI:161.0
Current RPI:170
Expected SOS:264
Current SOS:273
Current Record:16-10
Expected Record:16-11
Current Conf Record:9-6
Expected Conf Record:9-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-2
Current OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:147
Expected OOC SOS:300



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-10147.532.72%
16-11167.667.28%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UMBC.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Maryland Eastern Shore (301.7)MEACA73-77W100%0.0
11-16Delaware St. (329.3)MEACH90-68W100%0.0
11-19Kennesaw St. (269.8)ASunH93-85W100%0.0
11-23Navy (208.6)PatA78-66L0%0.0
11-30Duquesne (244.7)A10A72-81W100%0.0
12-7Mount St. Mary's (154.6)NECA70-78W100%0.0
12-10Richmond (100.4)A10A78-75L0%0.0
12-17Towson (88.1)CAAH72-73L0%0.0
12-19The Citadel (317.6)SCH120-111W100%0.0
12-23James Madison (266.7)CAAA61-62W100%0.0
12-28Virginia Tech (45.3)ACCA87-70L0%0.0
1-5Binghamton (290.7)AEH85-71W100%0.0
1-8Maine (328.5)AEH75-64W100%0.0
1-11Hartford (322.5)AEA68-84W100%0.0
1-13Vermont (44.5)AEA81-72L0%0.0
1-16Albany (141.5)AEH50-77L0%0.0
1-22UMass Lowell (302.1)AEA86-102W100%0.0
1-25Stony Brook (160.2)AEA83-73L0%0.0
1-28New Hampshire (148.6)AEH105-103W100%0.0
2-1Binghamton (290.7)AEA74-92W100%0.0
2-4Maine (328.5)AEA71-83W100%0.0
2-9Hartford (322.5)AEH77-84L0%0.0
2-12Vermont (44.5)AEH74-77L0%0.0
2-15Albany (141.5)AEA78-69L0%0.0
2-18UMass Lowell (302.1)AEH108-102W100%0.0
2-22Stony Brook (160.2)AEH65-52W100%0.0
2-25New Hampshire (148.6)AEA0-033%-4.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UMBC's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UMBC's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UMBC.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UMBCAE26.3626.3663.4963.157.116.93
HartfordAE4.694.6328.5727.78-2.01-2.06
MaineAE4.694.6218.5218.73-2.95-2.89
Stony BrookAE4.684.6261.5459.701.080.90
BinghamtonAE4.684.6136.0037.52-1.31-1.15
AlbanyAE4.664.5955.5656.940.520.64
UMass LowellAE4.734.5935.7135.71-1.35-1.31
VermontAE4.654.5981.4881.722.932.91
New HampshireAE2.864.5860.0060.000.570.92
Virginia TechACC2.061.9869.2368.180.790.72
TowsonCAA2.061.9862.9660.650.530.42
Delaware St.MEAC1.991.9526.9228.42-0.92-0.84
James MadisonCAA2.031.9425.9327.29-0.98-0.88
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC1.961.9132.0034.92-0.71-0.58
RichmondA101.991.9157.6958.550.310.33
NavyPat1.991.9148.1546.94-0.07-0.12
DuquesneA101.961.8837.0435.73-0.51-0.54
The CitadelSC1.961.8824.0022.90-1.02-1.02
Kennesaw St.ASun1.921.8542.3142.26-0.30-0.29
Mount St. Mary'sNEC1.921.8553.5755.500.140.20
Loyola MDPat0.370.3548.1549.03-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.370.3418.5220.01-0.23-0.20
NortheasternCAA0.340.3150.0048.510.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.280.2832.1430.40-0.10-0.11
Boston UniversityPat0.240.2653.5753.370.020.02
Holy CrossPat0.240.2650.0050.080.000.00
ColgatePat0.280.2531.0332.74-0.11-0.09
DartmouthIvy0.230.2526.0925.97-0.11-0.12
HofstraCAA0.240.2542.8642.57-0.03-0.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.230.2460.7158.720.050.04
St. Francis PANEC0.240.2242.3143.88-0.04-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.240.2240.9140.59-0.04-0.04
ProvidenceBE0.170.1960.7160.840.040.04
NJITASun0.200.1929.6330.60-0.08-0.07
CornellIvy0.200.1925.0025.31-0.10-0.09
College of CharlestonCAA0.210.1971.4372.700.090.09
BrownIvy0.200.1937.5037.60-0.05-0.05
MaristMAAC0.200.1924.1424.50-0.10-0.09
DrexelCAA0.170.1828.5729.06-0.07-0.08
George MasonA100.170.1862.9661.470.040.04
QuinnipiacMAAC0.200.1835.7136.66-0.06-0.05
YaleIvy0.200.1859.0960.220.040.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.190.1844.8343.96-0.02-0.02
AmericanPat0.140.1625.0025.07-0.07-0.08
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.180.160.003.38-0.18-0.15
BryantNEC0.140.1635.7137.15-0.04-0.04
HamptonMEAC0.180.1641.6743.49-0.03-0.02
VCUA100.180.1682.1479.370.110.09
LehighPat0.170.1659.2660.160.030.03
MassachusettsA100.130.1648.1547.57-0.00-0.01
DelawareCAA0.170.1637.0435.10-0.04-0.05
George WashingtonA100.180.1551.8551.210.010.00
DavidsonA100.170.1553.8552.600.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.170.1537.9339.64-0.04-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.140.1373.0873.880.070.06
ArmyPat0.140.1339.2938.46-0.03-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.150.1320.0022.21-0.09-0.07
Florida A&MMEAC0.140.1320.0020.88-0.09-0.08
VMISC0.150.1316.0016.75-0.10-0.09
WoffordSC0.140.1344.4443.90-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.150.1375.0077.120.070.07
Morgan St.MEAC0.110.1344.0045.06-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.140.1364.2963.090.040.03
MarylandB100.140.1377.7876.990.080.07
BucknellPat0.100.1273.3373.730.050.06
RutgersB100.130.1242.8642.33-0.02-0.02
ElonCAA0.140.1255.5656.900.020.02
SienaMAAC0.130.1248.2848.54-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.100.1281.4881.510.060.08
William & MaryCAA0.100.1252.0053.050.000.01
FordhamA100.100.1244.4444.02-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.100.1210.7111.38-0.08-0.09
WagnerNEC0.130.1252.0053.230.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.070.1065.3866.650.020.03
MercerSC0.110.1040.7440.78-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.110.1029.6328.76-0.04-0.04
USC UpstateASun0.110.1050.0049.750.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.070.1078.5777.800.040.05
FurmanSC0.110.1064.2964.510.030.03
St. John'sBE0.110.1042.8642.05-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.110.1069.2368.790.040.04
HowardMEAC0.040.1019.2321.44-0.02-0.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.110.0925.9326.05-0.05-0.04
IndianaB100.100.0953.5752.940.010.01
SMUAmer0.100.0985.7185.540.070.07
RiderMAAC0.100.0953.3353.310.010.01
DukeACC0.100.0978.5776.170.060.05
LongwoodBSth0.100.0916.0016.19-0.07-0.06
Old DominionCUSA0.100.0961.5462.870.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.100.0925.0025.84-0.05-0.04
CanisiusMAAC0.100.0958.6258.690.020.02
Penn St.B100.100.0950.0048.740.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.100.0925.0027.77-0.05-0.04
DaytonA100.100.0980.7779.440.060.05
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.100.0938.4638.56-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.070.0932.1431.02-0.02-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.070.0962.9663.390.020.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.040.0736.3636.47-0.01-0.02
DetroitHorz0.040.0722.2222.38-0.02-0.04
TempleAmer0.040.0748.2850.61-0.000.00
WinthropBSth0.040.0776.0077.350.020.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.070.0777.7877.990.040.04
FIUCUSA0.070.0716.0018.13-0.05-0.04
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0750.0049.370.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.040.0755.5655.680.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0740.7442.89-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.070.0730.7732.11-0.03-0.02
SamfordSC0.040.0755.5656.300.000.01
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0722.2222.75-0.04-0.04
IowaB100.070.0653.5751.590.010.00
LafayettePat0.070.0625.9325.63-0.03-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0646.1546.92-0.01-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0633.3334.37-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0628.0029.86-0.03-0.03
Iowa St.B120.070.0666.6764.750.020.02
High PointBSth0.070.0644.0045.26-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0656.0055.900.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.070.0646.1546.03-0.01-0.00
RiceCUSA0.070.0664.0063.500.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0659.2662.730.010.02
BuffaloMAC0.070.0650.0050.440.000.00
ButlerBE0.070.0678.5777.620.040.03
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0688.8987.450.050.05
ClemsonACC0.070.0651.8553.680.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0637.5039.90-0.02-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.060.0660.0060.590.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0665.3865.420.020.02
HarvardIvy0.070.0666.6765.300.020.02
HoustonAmer0.070.0670.3769.130.030.02
LibertyBSth0.060.0657.6957.630.010.01
Miami FLACC0.040.0670.3767.240.010.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0614.2918.10-0.05-0.04
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0670.3770.540.030.03
VirginiaACC0.070.0666.6767.600.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.040.0657.1455.800.010.01
La SalleA100.070.0653.8554.810.010.01
PittsburghACC0.070.0653.5750.750.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.070.0666.6766.780.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.040.0637.0438.57-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0631.0331.60-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.040.0328.0028.91-0.02-0.01
Arizona St.P120.040.0346.4344.09-0.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.040.0340.0040.08-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.040.0332.1432.21-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.040.0312.0011.56-0.03-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.040.0326.9225.66-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.040.0357.6956.380.010.00
AkronMAC0.040.0377.7876.390.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.040.0365.3864.150.010.01
HawaiiBW0.040.0348.0047.45-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.040.0369.2370.270.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0365.3864.780.010.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0353.5752.340.000.00
PennIvy0.030.0347.8350.32-0.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.040.0348.1548.38-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.040.0364.2963.820.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.040.0340.0041.64-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.040.0386.2186.330.030.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.040.0329.1729.85-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0341.6742.37-0.01-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.040.0378.5776.210.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.040.0355.5652.750.000.00
IonaMAAC0.030.0362.0762.320.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.040.0378.5778.520.020.02
MississippiSEC0.040.0360.7159.870.010.01
NebraskaB100.040.0344.0042.70-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.030.0378.5778.260.020.02
New MexicoMWC0.040.0357.1456.440.010.00
North CarolinaACC0.040.0382.1480.660.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.040.0351.7249.530.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.040.0375.0074.370.020.02
Oral RobertsSum0.040.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
SyracuseACC0.040.0358.6257.910.010.00
Texas A&MSEC0.040.0351.8551.660.000.00
Texas TechB120.040.0360.7159.310.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0342.3143.63-0.01-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.030.0375.0071.920.020.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0325.0026.71-0.02-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0337.5042.38-0.01-0.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0382.1481.760.020.02
MinnesotaB100.030.0375.0073.470.020.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0348.2848.17-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0359.2659.740.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0376.0076.570.020.02