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Through games of Jan 22, 2018.


UMBC

Conference:AE
Expected RPI:175.7
Current RPI:164
Expected SOS:247
Current SOS:263
Current Record:10-8
Expected Record:16-12
Current Conf Record:4-2
Expected Conf Record:10-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-4
Current OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:180
Expected OOC SOS:252



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-885.70.17%
19-9105.11.48%
18-10126.26.82%
17-11147.616.72%
16-12167.926.14%
15-13186.825.23%
14-14205.215.66%
13-15222.36.14%
12-16238.01.45%
11-17251.40.17%
10-18269.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UMBC.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10SMU (41.6)AmerA78-67L0%0.0
11-12Arizona (16.0)P12A103-78L0%0.0
11-19Colgate (220.6)PatA93-88L0%0.0
11-23Chicago St. (336.6)WACH84-73W100%0.0
11-24Nicholls St. (200.2)SlndH89-88W100%0.0
12-1Army (190.3)PatN81-70L0%0.0
12-2The Citadel (314.4)SCA72-98W100%0.0
12-6Delaware St. (350.4)MEACA60-81W100%0.0
12-9Towson (89.7)CAAA78-65L0%0.0
12-12Coppin St. (342.7)MEACH81-74W100%0.0
12-17Northern Kentucky (89.8)HorzH76-75W100%0.0
12-29Maryland (50.9)B10A66-45L0%0.0
1-3New Hampshire (259.2)AEH71-67W100%0.0
1-6Vermont (55.3)AEA71-56L0%0.0
1-10Maine (331.4)AEA67-72W100%0.0
1-13UMass Lowell (309.2)AEA62-89W100%0.0
1-15Hartford (253.6)AEH78-56W100%0.0
1-21Albany (118.3)AEA83-39L0%0.0
1-24Binghamton (282.6)AEH0-076%7.7
1-27Maine (331.4)AEH0-088%13.2
1-31Stony Brook (197.0)AEA0-035%-4.3
2-3Vermont (55.3)AEH0-025%-7.4
2-8Binghamton (282.6)AEA0-055%1.3
2-11New Hampshire (259.2)AEA0-043%-2.0
2-18Albany (118.3)AEH0-040%-2.8
2-21Stony Brook (197.0)AEH0-058%2.1
2-24UMass Lowell (309.2)AEH0-081%9.7
2-27Hartford (253.6)AEA0-055%1.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UMBC's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UMBC's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UMBC.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UMBCAE26.3226.3663.8959.067.314.78
BinghamtonAE0.594.5342.1140.30-0.09-0.88
AlbanyAE3.154.4770.0069.551.261.75
VermontAE3.154.4773.6877.181.492.43
Stony BrookAE0.424.4636.8444.56-0.11-0.49
HartfordAE3.064.4352.6347.680.16-0.21
MaineAE2.984.4311.1115.49-2.32-3.06
New HampshireAE2.994.4335.2940.98-0.88-0.80
UMass LowellAE3.064.4335.2935.74-0.90-1.26
ColgatePat2.841.9747.0649.21-0.17-0.03
ArmyPat2.781.9158.8258.970.490.34
Delaware St.MEAC2.781.880.008.72-2.78-1.55
MarylandB102.781.8565.0061.860.830.44
Northern KentuckyHorz2.851.8570.5975.941.170.96
Coppin St.MEAC2.781.8210.0018.46-2.22-1.15
ArizonaP122.851.8178.9578.241.651.02
SMUAmer2.851.8168.4269.631.050.71
Chicago St.WAC2.781.790.003.17-2.78-1.67
Nicholls St.Slnd2.781.7953.3353.360.190.12
The CitadelSC2.781.7920.0019.08-1.67-1.10
TowsonCAA2.781.7961.1164.770.620.53
Boston UniversityPat0.450.3850.0053.280.000.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.220.3140.0042.51-0.04-0.05
Loyola MDPat0.300.2822.2228.66-0.17-0.12
BucknellPat0.290.2861.9068.000.070.10
Holy CrossPat0.300.2530.0032.58-0.12-0.09
Sacred HeartNEC0.220.2530.0033.48-0.09-0.08
ColumbiaIvy0.290.2520.0032.24-0.18-0.09
DartmouthIvy0.290.2421.4326.34-0.16-0.12
Central ConnecticutNEC0.290.2252.3848.530.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.210.2133.3340.35-0.07-0.04
MaristMAAC0.400.1921.0521.99-0.23-0.11
AmericanPat0.230.1925.0026.03-0.12-0.09
BryantNEC0.210.189.5217.12-0.17-0.12
QuinnipiacMAAC0.210.1835.0031.82-0.06-0.07
RutgersB100.140.1855.0046.650.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.210.1852.6347.380.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.220.1677.7879.160.120.09
CornellIvy0.150.1633.3333.23-0.05-0.05
NavyPat0.220.1660.0055.160.040.02
Boston CollegeACC0.220.1665.0054.600.070.01
HofstraCAA0.150.1657.8959.500.020.03
Penn St.B100.130.1561.9055.820.030.02
FurmanSC0.160.1366.6768.540.050.05
LehighPat0.150.1338.8944.74-0.03-0.01
LafayettePat0.150.1322.2227.46-0.09-0.06
James MadisonCAA0.160.1325.0028.25-0.08-0.06
BrownIvy0.080.1350.0045.130.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.150.1350.0046.810.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.220.1361.9065.150.050.04
WagnerNEC0.150.1364.7164.560.040.04
WisconsinB100.150.1250.0046.270.00-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.160.1245.0045.03-0.02-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.220.1255.5657.250.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.1217.6534.76-0.04-0.04
Michigan St.B100.070.1285.7183.760.050.08
NortheasternCAA0.070.1263.1663.210.020.03
MemphisAmer0.140.1265.0058.540.040.02
PurdueB100.210.1290.4888.390.170.09
SienaMAAC0.140.1228.5729.93-0.06-0.05
YaleIvy0.140.1241.1847.61-0.02-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.140.1242.1132.46-0.02-0.04
NiagaraMAAC0.150.1057.1453.040.020.01
NJITASun0.150.1038.8942.58-0.03-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.070.0937.5045.24-0.02-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.160.097.1414.82-0.13-0.07
SeattleWAC0.160.0957.8954.500.020.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.150.0942.1145.98-0.02-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.140.0920.0023.33-0.09-0.05
DelawareCAA0.070.0947.3743.00-0.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.140.0960.0064.130.030.03
TulaneAmer0.230.0963.1657.870.060.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.140.0929.4133.20-0.06-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.140.0910.0019.62-0.11-0.05
GeorgetownBE0.140.0968.4254.080.050.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.140.0947.0654.68-0.010.01
BradleyMVC0.140.0965.0057.890.040.01
MarquetteBE0.140.0968.4260.530.050.02
NorthwesternB100.070.0955.0050.370.010.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0915.0020.28-0.05-0.05
St. BonaventureA100.140.0966.6768.750.050.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0950.0052.500.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.070.0925.0043.18-0.03-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0926.3230.45-0.03-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.140.0989.4785.550.110.06
OregonP120.140.0965.0063.810.040.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.090.0745.0049.28-0.01-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.090.0722.2228.57-0.05-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.090.075.8819.39-0.08-0.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.090.0728.5731.24-0.04-0.02
MercerSC0.000.0744.4454.870.000.01
SamfordSC0.090.0727.7832.67-0.04-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0752.9455.030.000.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.090.0768.7567.610.030.02
VMISC0.090.0725.0024.14-0.04-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.090.0738.8935.38-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.090.0768.7563.660.030.02
PresbyterianBSth0.160.0627.7827.11-0.07-0.03
DetroitHorz0.080.0621.0525.99-0.04-0.03
FairfieldMAAC0.080.0638.8944.07-0.02-0.01
FloridaSEC0.080.0673.6871.600.040.03
George WashingtonA100.080.0645.0043.49-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.080.0625.0027.93-0.04-0.03
IUPUIHorz0.080.0627.7829.82-0.03-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0645.0047.06-0.01-0.00
TexasB120.080.0665.0058.600.020.01
Utah St.MWC0.080.0645.0045.47-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.080.0668.4269.260.030.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0621.0523.520.00-0.03
Ohio St.B100.150.0681.8276.870.100.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.160.0668.4270.820.060.03
SyracuseACC0.140.0668.4261.280.050.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0661.1158.710.000.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0617.6519.290.00-0.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.150.0666.6765.630.050.02
DrexelCAA0.070.0630.0030.97-0.03-0.02
ElonCAA0.070.0652.6351.090.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0652.6347.500.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.070.0635.2935.54-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.070.0631.5829.03-0.03-0.03
George MasonA100.000.0645.0041.290.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0670.0071.220.030.03
Miami OHMAC0.070.0647.0641.38-0.00-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.0650.0047.650.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.0683.3384.250.050.04
PennIvy0.140.0664.7162.690.040.02
PittsburghACC0.140.0640.0030.88-0.03-0.02
PortlandWCC0.070.0627.7827.26-0.03-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.000.0670.0060.470.000.01
RiderMAAC0.070.0665.0065.330.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0650.0051.640.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.070.0650.0045.850.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0652.9459.250.000.01
Texas TechB120.070.0678.9571.750.040.03
UMKCWAC0.000.0621.0524.760.00-0.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.150.0622.2227.31-0.08-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.070.0666.6766.030.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.070.0664.7160.010.020.01
Texas A&MSEC0.150.0668.4263.970.050.02
IowaB100.140.0647.6243.94-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.070.0663.6459.480.020.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0610.5326.290.00-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.140.0644.4450.08-0.020.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0631.5836.43-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0661.9063.170.020.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.070.0627.7838.12-0.03-0.01
HarvardIvy0.070.0637.5046.70-0.02-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.070.0644.4444.91-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.070.0673.6868.040.030.02
LouisvilleACC0.070.0678.9569.820.040.02
MichiganB100.070.0676.1970.800.030.02
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0627.7841.03-0.03-0.01
RichmondA100.070.0631.5834.35-0.03-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.140.0645.0048.57-0.01-0.00
OhioMAC0.130.0647.0648.43-0.01-0.00
Arizona St.P120.070.0678.9576.160.040.03
CaliforniaP120.070.0636.8431.11-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.070.0660.0053.720.010.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0678.9573.000.000.03
Oregon St.P120.070.0657.8950.860.010.00
South FloridaAmer0.070.0635.0026.13-0.02-0.03
StanfordP120.070.0655.0050.330.010.00
UCFAmer0.070.0668.4260.830.030.01
USCP120.070.0671.4368.300.030.02
UtahP120.070.0663.1659.720.020.01
Wichita St.Amer0.070.0678.9577.380.040.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0352.9452.670.000.00
CampbellBSth0.090.0347.0647.41-0.01-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.090.0373.6869.660.040.01
High PointBSth0.090.0343.7549.22-0.01-0.00
IdahoBSky0.090.0364.7166.850.030.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.090.037.6920.08-0.07-0.02
LamarSlnd0.000.0350.0054.900.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.090.0383.3381.420.060.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0343.7549.110.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.090.0380.0078.870.050.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.090.037.6923.24-0.07-0.02
VillanovaBE0.090.0394.7490.310.080.03
Virginia TechACC0.090.0370.0060.400.030.01
Air ForceMWC0.080.0337.5031.78-0.02-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0331.5832.71-0.03-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0323.5328.71-0.04-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.080.0333.3335.21-0.03-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.080.0342.1140.46-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.070.0342.1134.30-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.070.0355.0048.980.01-0.00
DuquesneA100.070.0370.0058.090.030.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0337.5037.67-0.02-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.070.0352.6351.680.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0366.6765.390.020.01
La SalleA100.070.0340.0042.69-0.01-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0350.0050.860.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0341.1839.14-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.070.0363.1661.000.020.01
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0378.9576.770.040.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0336.8432.75-0.02-0.01
TroySB0.070.0338.8944.43-0.02-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0352.9452.250.000.00
ButlerBE0.070.0366.6763.070.020.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0323.5332.57-0.04-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0338.8940.78-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.070.0345.0043.62-0.01-0.00
IndianaB100.070.0360.0052.880.010.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0338.8943.36-0.01-0.00
MinnesotaB100.070.0363.6457.610.020.00
AlabamaSEC0.070.0368.4259.020.030.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0333.3339.89-0.02-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.070.0378.9576.980.040.02
Cal PolyBW0.070.0323.5328.20-0.04-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.070.0352.6343.040.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0340.0043.34-0.01-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0326.6729.12-0.03-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0342.1144.98-0.01-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0365.0056.350.020.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0344.4450.31-0.010.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.0311.1115.30-0.05-0.02
TCUB120.070.0375.0067.830.030.01
TempleAmer0.070.0352.6351.740.000.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0355.0053.330.000.00
UCLAP120.000.0365.0062.050.000.01
UNLVMWC0.070.0373.6865.250.030.01
WashingtonP120.000.0370.0061.460.000.01
Washington St.P120.000.0347.3741.430.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.070.0380.0076.040.040.01