UMBC

Conference:	AE
Expected RPI:	111.0
Current RPI:	111
Expected SOS:	244
Current SOS:	244
Current Record:	21-10
Expected Record:	21-10
Current Conf Record:	15-4
Expected Conf Record:	15-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	6-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	14-2
Current OOC Record:	6-6
Expected OOC Record:	6-6
Expected OOC RPI:	210
Expected OOC SOS:	301

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
21-10	111.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UMBC.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	SMU (113.0)	Amer	A	78-67	L	0%
11-12	Arizona (13.0)	P12	A	103-78	L	0%
11-19	Colgate (185.0)	Pat	A	93-88	L	0%
11-23	Chicago St. (335.0)	WAC	H	84-73	W	100%
11-24	Nicholls St. (145.0)	Slnd	H	89-88	W	100%
12-1	Army (280.0)	Pat	N	81-70	L	0%
12-2	The Citadel (281.0)	SC	A	72-98	W	100%
12-6	Delaware St. (351.0)	MEAC	A	60-81	W	100%
12-9	Towson (153.0)	CAA	A	78-65	L	0%
12-12	Coppin St. (343.0)	MEAC	H	81-74	W	100%
12-17	Northern Kentucky (115.0)	Horz	H	76-75	W	100%
12-29	Maryland (74.0)	B10	A	66-45	L	0%
1-3	New Hampshire (312.0)	AE	H	71-67	W	100%
1-6	Vermont (60.0)	AE	A	71-56	L	0%
1-10	Maine (338.0)	AE	A	67-72	W	100%
1-13	UMass Lowell (289.0)	AE	A	62-89	W	100%
1-15	Hartford (198.0)	AE	H	78-56	W	100%
1-21	Albany (142.0)	AE	A	83-39	L	0%
1-24	Binghamton (320.0)	AE	H	69-57	W	100%
1-27	Maine (338.0)	AE	H	86-74	W	100%
1-31	Stony Brook (208.0)	AE	A	63-67	W	100%
2-3	Vermont (60.0)	AE	H	53-81	L	0%
2-8	Binghamton (320.0)	AE	A	68-78	W	100%
2-11	New Hampshire (312.0)	AE	A	59-68	W	100%
2-18	Albany (142.0)	AE	H	68-60	W	100%
2-21	Stony Brook (208.0)	AE	H	57-64	L	0%
2-24	UMass Lowell (289.0)	AE	H	83-75	W	100%
2-27	Hartford (198.0)	AE	A	53-62	W	100%
3-3	UMass Lowell (289.0)	AE	H	89-77	W	100%
3-6	Hartford (198.0)	AE	H	75-60	W	100%
3-10	Vermont (60.0)	AE	A	62-65	W	100%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UMBC's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

UMBC's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against UMBC.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
UMBC	AE	26.56	26.56	71.22	71.22	11.27	11.27
Vermont	AE	5.83	5.83	80.00	80.00	3.50	3.50
Hartford	AE	5.75	5.75	64.29	64.29	1.64	1.64
UMass Lowell	AE	5.68	5.68	42.31	42.31	-0.87	-0.87
Stony Brook	AE	4.28	4.28	37.93	37.93	-1.03	-1.03
Albany	AE	4.21	4.21	68.97	68.97	1.60	1.60
Binghamton	AE	4.20	4.20	33.33	33.33	-1.40	-1.40
New Hampshire	AE	4.20	4.20	29.63	29.63	-1.71	-1.71
Maine	AE	4.20	4.20	14.29	14.29	-3.00	-3.00
Colgate	Pat	1.78	1.78	56.67	56.67	0.24	0.24
Army	Pat	1.72	1.72	39.29	39.29	-0.37	-0.37
Delaware St.	MEAC	1.69	1.69	6.90	6.90	-1.46	-1.46
Northern Kentucky	Horz	1.69	1.69	71.43	71.43	0.72	0.72
Maryland	B10	1.66	1.66	56.67	56.67	0.22	0.22
Coppin St.	MEAC	1.64	1.64	16.13	16.13	-1.11	-1.11
Arizona	P12	1.64	1.64	78.79	78.79	0.94	0.94
SMU	Amer	1.64	1.64	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Chicago St.	WAC	1.61	1.61	3.45	3.45	-1.50	-1.50
Nicholls St.	Slnd	1.61	1.61	62.96	62.96	0.42	0.42
The Citadel	SC	1.61	1.61	28.57	28.57	-0.69	-0.69
Towson	CAA	1.61	1.61	51.72	51.72	0.06	0.06
Boston University	Pat	0.35	0.35	46.67	46.67	-0.02	-0.02
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.35	0.35	51.52	51.52	0.01	0.01
Loyola MD	Pat	0.30	0.30	26.67	26.67	-0.14	-0.14
Bucknell	Pat	0.29	0.29	73.53	73.53	0.13	0.13
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.27	0.27	30.00	30.00	-0.11	-0.11
Holy Cross	Pat	0.24	0.24	38.71	38.71	-0.05	-0.05
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.24	0.24	43.75	43.75	-0.03	-0.03
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.23	0.23	23.08	23.08	-0.13	-0.13
Columbia	Ivy	0.21	0.21	26.92	26.92	-0.10	-0.10
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.21	0.21	36.36	36.36	-0.06	-0.06
Marist	MAAC	0.19	0.19	19.35	19.35	-0.12	-0.12
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.19	0.19	36.67	36.67	-0.05	-0.05
Bryant	NEC	0.19	0.19	9.68	9.68	-0.15	-0.15
Rutgers	B10	0.18	0.18	42.42	42.42	-0.03	-0.03
Connecticut	Amer	0.18	0.18	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Cornell	Ivy	0.17	0.17	40.74	40.74	-0.03	-0.03
American	Pat	0.16	0.16	20.00	20.00	-0.10	-0.10
Wisconsin	B10	0.16	0.16	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.16	0.16	70.00	70.00	0.06	0.06
Boston College	ACC	0.16	0.16	55.88	55.88	0.02	0.02
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.14	0.14	71.88	71.88	0.06	0.06
Massachusetts	A10	0.14	0.14	39.39	39.39	-0.03	-0.03
Brown	Ivy	0.14	0.14	38.46	38.46	-0.03	-0.03
Lafayette	Pat	0.13	0.13	30.00	30.00	-0.05	-0.05
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.13	0.13	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Hofstra	CAA	0.13	0.13	60.00	60.00	0.03	0.03
Navy	Pat	0.13	0.13	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Penn St.	B10	0.13	0.13	61.76	61.76	0.03	0.03
Northeastern	CAA	0.13	0.13	68.75	68.75	0.05	0.05
Siena	MAAC	0.13	0.13	25.00	25.00	-0.06	-0.06
Yale	Ivy	0.13	0.13	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Furman	SC	0.11	0.11	67.74	67.74	0.04	0.04
NJIT	ASun	0.11	0.11	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.11	0.11	29.03	29.03	-0.05	-0.05
Oakland	Horz	0.11	0.11	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.11	0.11	32.35	32.35	-0.04	-0.04
Lehigh	Pat	0.11	0.11	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.11	0.11	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	Amer	0.10	0.10	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.10	0.10	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.10	0.10	87.88	87.88	0.08	0.08
Purdue	B10	0.10	0.10	82.35	82.35	0.07	0.07
East Carolina	Amer	0.10	0.10	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Bradley	MVC	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Marquette	BE	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Cincinnati	Amer	0.10	0.10	88.24	88.24	0.08	0.08
Niagara	MAAC	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.08	0.08	77.42	77.42	0.05	0.05
VMI	SC	0.08	0.08	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Seattle	WAC	0.08	0.08	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
New Orleans	Slnd	0.08	0.08	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.08	0.08	8.00	8.00	-0.07	-0.07
Delaware	CAA	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.08	0.08	83.33	83.33	0.05	0.05
William & Mary	CAA	0.08	0.08	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.08	0.08	24.24	24.24	-0.04	-0.04
Georgetown	BE	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.08	0.08	16.67	16.67	-0.05	-0.05
FIU	CUSA	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Portland	WCC	0.08	0.08	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
Rider	MAAC	0.08	0.08	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Tulane	Amer	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.07	0.07	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Harvard	Ivy	0.07	0.07	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.07	0.07	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Richmond	A10	0.07	0.07	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Oregon	P12	0.07	0.07	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
USC	P12	0.07	0.07	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Colorado	P12	0.07	0.07	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.06	0.06	10.71	10.71	-0.05	-0.05
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	32.00	32.00	-0.02	-0.02
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.06	0.06	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Presbyterian	BSth	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.06	0.06	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
Chattanooga	SC	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Detroit	Horz	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Evansville	MVC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Fairfield	MAAC	0.06	0.06	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
George Mason	A10	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
George Washington	A10	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Green Bay	Horz	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
IUPUI	Horz	0.06	0.06	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Mercer	SC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Milwaukee	Horz	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Montana St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Samford	SC	0.06	0.06	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Texas	B12	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Utah St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Western Carolina	SC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Wofford	SC	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
College of Charleston	CAA	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Elon	CAA	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Penn	Ivy	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
UMKC	WAC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Utah Valley	WAC	0.05	0.05	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Louisville	ACC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Monmouth	MAAC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Providence	BE	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Syracuse	ACC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Houston	Amer	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
South Florida	Amer	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
UCF	Amer	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	Amer	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
California	P12	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Utah	P12	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.03	0.03	44.44	44.44	-0.00	-0.00
Idaho	BSky	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.03	0.03	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.03	0.03	30.77	30.77	-0.01	-0.01
Villanova	BE	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
High Point	BSth	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	22.22	22.22	-0.02	-0.02
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Georgia Southern	SB	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Notre Dame	ACC	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Troy	SB	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Butler	BE	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
West Virginia	B12	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
Boise St.	MWC	0.02	0.02	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
Cal Poly	BW	0.02	0.02	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.02	0.02	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
TCU	B12	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Temple	Amer	0.02	0.02	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Tulsa	Amer	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.02	0.02	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Long Beach St.	BW	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.02	0.02	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.02	0.02	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
UNLV	MWC	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Washington	P12	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01