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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Wagner

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:244.0
Current RPI:244
Expected SOS:327
Current SOS:327
Current Record:15-14
Expected Record:15-14
Current Conf Record:12-8
Expected Conf Record:12-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-8
Current OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC RPI:211
Expected OOC SOS:206



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-14244.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wagner.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Connecticut (118.0)AmerA58-67W100%0.0
11-14UMass Lowell (309.0)AEA87-76L0%0.0
11-19Fairfield (180.0)MAACH64-70L0%0.0
11-22American (310.0)PatA65-73W100%0.0
11-26Rider (198.0)MAACH67-70L0%0.0
11-30Massachusetts (195.0)A10A62-55L0%0.0
12-6Monmouth (49.0)MAACH71-81L0%0.0
12-10Morgan St. (326.0)MEACA66-68W100%0.0
12-17Providence (56.0)BEA76-54L0%0.0
12-29Central Connecticut (344.0)NECH71-46W100%0.0
12-31Mount St. Mary's (151.0)NECA57-56L0%0.0
1-5Fairleigh Dickinson (273.0)NECH69-70L0%0.0
1-7Sacred Heart (304.0)NECH75-64W100%0.0
1-12Bryant (285.0)NECA77-66L0%0.0
1-14Robert Morris (237.0)NECH53-50W100%0.0
1-19LIU Brooklyn (224.0)NECA76-69L0%0.0
1-21Sacred Heart (304.0)NECA62-67W100%0.0
1-26St. Francis PA (258.0)NECH67-72L0%0.0
1-28St. Francis NY (348.0)NECH66-64W100%0.0
2-2Central Connecticut (344.0)NECA60-70W100%0.0
2-4Fairleigh Dickinson (273.0)NECA59-68W100%0.0
2-9St. Francis PA (258.0)NECA74-76W100%0.0
2-11Robert Morris (237.0)NECA50-48L0%0.0
2-16Mount St. Mary's (151.0)NECH69-65W100%0.0
2-18St. Francis NY (348.0)NECA55-73W100%0.0
2-23Bryant (285.0)NECH69-66W100%0.0
2-25LIU Brooklyn (224.0)NECH84-88L0%0.0
3-1Fairleigh Dickinson (273.0)NECH72-70W100%0.0
3-4St. Francis PA (258.0)NECH70-71L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wagner's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Wagner's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Wagner.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
WagnerNEC26.5426.5452.3852.381.261.26
St. Francis PANEC6.266.2646.4346.43-0.45-0.45
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC6.116.1134.6234.62-1.88-1.88
Mount St. Mary'sNEC4.654.6556.2556.250.580.58
Robert MorrisNEC4.574.5741.9441.94-0.74-0.74
Sacred HeartNEC4.564.5643.3343.33-0.61-0.61
BryantNEC4.544.5434.4834.48-1.41-1.41
LIU BrooklynNEC4.534.5358.6258.620.780.78
St. Francis NYNEC4.484.4810.7110.71-3.52-3.52
Central ConnecticutNEC4.474.4722.2222.22-2.49-2.49
UMass LowellAE1.921.9231.0331.03-0.73-0.73
FairfieldMAAC1.881.8851.7251.720.060.06
RiderMAAC1.861.8653.1253.120.120.12
MonmouthMAAC1.831.8381.2581.251.151.15
ProvidenceBE1.811.8161.2961.290.410.41
AmericanPat1.811.8127.5927.59-0.81-0.81
MassachusettsA101.811.8143.7543.75-0.23-0.23
ConnecticutAmer1.721.7248.3948.39-0.06-0.06
Morgan St.MEAC1.721.7246.4346.43-0.12-0.12
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.310.3159.3859.380.060.06
ArmyPat0.290.2938.7138.71-0.06-0.06
IonaMAAC0.280.2864.7164.710.080.08
ManhattanMAAC0.280.2831.2531.25-0.10-0.10
FordhamA100.250.2538.7138.71-0.06-0.06
HartfordAE0.250.2528.1228.12-0.11-0.11
LehighPat0.240.2461.2961.290.060.06
NiagaraMAAC0.240.2430.3030.30-0.10-0.10
BrownIvy0.230.2339.2939.29-0.05-0.05
Loyola MDPat0.220.2246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.220.2231.2531.25-0.08-0.08
CanisiusMAAC0.220.2254.5554.550.020.02
SienaMAAC0.220.2250.0050.000.000.00
Seton HallBE0.200.2065.6265.620.060.06
BinghamtonAE0.200.2031.0331.03-0.08-0.08
MaineAE0.200.2019.3519.35-0.12-0.12
MaristMAAC0.190.1925.0025.00-0.10-0.10
BucknellPat0.190.1976.4776.470.100.10
RutgersB100.180.1843.7543.75-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.170.1759.3859.380.030.03
CincinnatiAmer0.170.1785.2985.290.120.12
YaleIvy0.170.1760.7160.710.040.04
LafayettePat0.170.1727.5927.59-0.08-0.08
Boston UniversityPat0.170.1754.8454.840.020.02
New HampshireAE0.170.1758.6258.620.030.03
Holy CrossPat0.160.1646.8846.88-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.160.1632.2632.26-0.06-0.06
St. BonaventureA100.160.1662.5062.500.040.04
Ohio St.B100.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.140.1458.0658.060.020.02
PennIvy0.140.1446.4346.43-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.140.1425.9325.93-0.07-0.07
MarquetteBE0.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
VirginiaACC0.140.1468.7568.750.050.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.120.1240.7440.74-0.02-0.02
AlbanyAE0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
NavyPat0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Texas A&MSEC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
HoustonAmer0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
Boston CollegeACC0.110.1128.1228.12-0.05-0.05
St. John'sBE0.110.1142.4242.42-0.02-0.02
UMBCAE0.110.1157.1457.140.020.02
HamptonMEAC0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
MinnesotaB100.110.1172.7372.730.050.05
DePaulBE0.110.1128.1228.12-0.05-0.05
George MasonA100.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
LipscombASun0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
HowardMEAC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.090.0973.3373.330.040.04
VermontAE0.080.0884.8584.850.060.06
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.080.0814.2914.29-0.06-0.06
VillanovaBE0.080.0891.1891.180.070.07
NortheasternCAA0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.083.333.33-0.08-0.08
HarvardIvy0.080.0861.5461.540.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0834.3834.38-0.03-0.03
CreightonBE0.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
GeorgetownBE0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
UCFAmer0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
RichmondA100.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.060.0696.9796.970.050.05
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0632.0032.00-0.02-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
NorthwesternB100.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
Notre DameACC0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
OhioMAC0.060.0663.3363.330.010.01
CornellIvy0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
ArizonaP120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
ButlerBE0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
SMUAmer0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
DrexelCAA0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Kansas St.B120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
OaklandHorz0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
PacificWCC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Iowa St.B120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
MichiganB100.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Fort WayneSum0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
IndianaB100.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
LibertyBSth0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
MarylandB100.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0323.0823.08-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
OregonP120.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
TulaneAmer0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
TulsaAmer0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
DaytonA100.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.030.0378.5778.570.010.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01