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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.

Wagner

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:126.0
Current RPI:126
Expected SOS:203
Current SOS:203
Current Record:19-12
Expected Record:19-12
Current Conf Record:13-7
Expected Conf Record:13-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-3
Current OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:94
Expected OOC SOS:160


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-12126.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wagner.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Delaware St. (263.0)MEACA73-69L0%0.0
11-18Syracuse (14.0)BEA88-57L0%0.0
11-24North Carolina Central (155.0)MEACA36-38W100%0.0
11-26Albany (130.0)AEA66-63L0%0.0
11-28Princeton (124.0)IvyH48-42W100%0.0
12-1Temple (42.0)A10A70-62L0%0.0
12-4Hofstra (325.0)CAAA44-52W100%0.0
12-15Coppin St. (313.0)MEACH77-65W100%0.0
12-21Southern Methodist (219.0)CUSAN63-53W100%0.0
12-22Santa Clara (101.0)WCCA69-45L0%0.0
12-29Pennsylvania (280.0)IvyH68-63W100%0.0
1-3Monmouth (282.0)NECH60-56W100%0.0
1-5Fairleigh Dickinson (299.0)NECH68-55W100%0.0
1-10Long Island (179.0)NECA75-86W100%0.0
1-12St. Francis NY (207.0)NECH52-71L0%0.0
1-17Central Connecticut (200.0)NECA73-66L0%0.0
1-19Bryant (158.0)NECA82-59L0%0.0
1-24Mount St. Mary's (121.0)NECA50-52W100%0.0
1-26St. Francis PA (322.0)NECA56-81W100%0.0
1-31Sacred Heart (253.0)NECH84-78W100%0.0
2-2Quinnipiac (191.0)NECH69-74L0%0.0
2-6Mount St. Mary's (121.0)NECH74-65W100%0.0
2-9Robert Morris (132.0)NECA83-79L0%0.0
2-14Central Connecticut (200.0)NECH101-82W100%0.0
2-16Bryant (158.0)NECH89-75W100%0.0
2-21St. Francis NY (207.0)NECA76-75L0%0.0
2-24Long Island (179.0)NECH94-92W100%0.0
2-28Fairleigh Dickinson (299.0)NECA66-84W100%0.0
3-2Monmouth (282.0)NECA57-67W100%0.0
3-6Central Connecticut (200.0)NECH72-50W100%0.0
3-9Long Island (179.0)NECH82-94L0%0.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wagner's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Wagner's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Wagner.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.


Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
WagnerNEC26.3826.3864.4464.447.627.62
Long IslandNEC5.655.6563.3363.331.511.51
Central ConnecticutNEC5.515.5144.4444.44-0.61-0.61
Mount St. Mary'sNEC4.214.2160.0060.000.840.84
MonmouthNEC4.034.0334.4834.48-1.25-1.25
St. Francis NYNEC4.024.0235.7135.71-1.15-1.15
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC4.004.0024.1424.14-2.07-2.07
BryantNEC3.983.9864.2964.291.141.14
QuinnipiacNEC2.552.5546.6746.67-0.17-0.17
Robert MorrisNEC2.532.5368.7568.750.950.95
Sacred HeartNEC2.452.4532.1432.14-0.87-0.87
St. Francis PANEC2.422.4217.8617.86-1.56-1.56
SyracuseBE1.801.8073.5373.530.850.85
HofstraCAA1.761.7620.0020.00-1.06-1.06
Delaware St.MEAC1.721.7240.0040.00-0.34-0.34
PennsylvaniaIvy1.701.7030.0030.00-0.68-0.68
AlbanyAE1.691.6969.7069.700.670.67
PrincetonIvy1.691.6961.5461.540.390.39
Coppin St.MEAC1.671.6723.3323.33-0.89-0.89
North Carolina CentralMEAC1.661.6670.3770.370.680.68
TempleA101.661.6670.9770.970.700.70
Southern MethodistCUSA1.641.6446.6746.67-0.11-0.11
Santa ClaraWCC1.611.6162.0762.070.390.39
LafayettePat0.420.4254.5554.550.040.04
BrownIvy0.350.3544.4444.44-0.04-0.04
St. Peter'sMAAC0.290.2930.0030.00-0.11-0.11
HartfordAE0.280.2856.6756.670.040.04
LehighPat0.240.2468.9768.970.090.09
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.230.2323.3323.33-0.12-0.12
BinghamtonAE0.230.236.906.90-0.20-0.20
IndianaB100.210.2181.8281.820.130.13
HamptonMEAC0.210.2145.1645.16-0.02-0.02
NavyPat0.210.2123.3323.33-0.11-0.11
YaleIvy0.190.1941.3841.38-0.03-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.190.1938.4638.46-0.04-0.04
New HampshireAE0.180.1828.5728.57-0.08-0.08
DelawareCAA0.180.1857.5857.580.030.03
Stony BrookAE0.180.1876.6776.670.100.10
ColgatePat0.180.1834.3834.38-0.06-0.06
DartmouthIvy0.170.1729.6329.63-0.07-0.07
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.160.1652.9452.940.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.160.1662.5062.500.040.04
La SalleA100.160.1670.0070.000.060.06
HowardMEAC0.160.1620.6920.69-0.09-0.09
Norfolk St.MEAC0.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
FordhamA100.160.1622.5822.58-0.09-0.09
South Carolina St.MEAC0.160.1614.2914.29-0.11-0.11
MarylandACC0.150.1564.7164.710.040.04
RiceCUSA0.150.1513.7913.79-0.11-0.11
VillanovaBE0.150.1559.3859.380.030.03
VermontAE0.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
CornellIvy0.140.1440.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.140.1437.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.130.137.147.14-0.11-0.11
Morgan St.MEAC0.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
RiderMAAC0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.130.1348.0048.00-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.130.1355.8855.880.020.02
George WashingtonA100.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
PittsburghBE0.120.1275.0075.000.060.06
GeorgetownBE0.120.1280.6580.650.070.07
Seton HallBE0.120.1245.4545.45-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
DrexelCAA0.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.110.1131.2531.25-0.04-0.04
AmericanPat0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Georgia St.CAA0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
Notre DameBE0.100.1073.5373.530.050.05
XavierA100.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.100.1028.1228.12-0.04-0.04
Loyola MDMAAC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
ProvidenceBE0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Utah ValleyGWC0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
Kent St.MAC0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
RutgersBE0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
George MasonCAA0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
NorthwesternB100.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
TulaneCUSA0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Virginia CommonwealthA100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
St. John'sBE0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Boston UniversityAE0.070.0758.6258.620.010.01
DuquesneA100.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
KentuckySEC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
LamarSlnd0.070.079.689.68-0.06-0.06
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleBE0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
BucknellPat0.060.0684.3884.380.040.04
AkronMAC0.060.0680.6580.650.030.03
BuffaloMAC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
WyomingMWC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Brigham YoungWCC0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.050.0593.7593.750.050.05
IllinoisB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
St. Mary'sWCC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
DukeACC0.050.0584.3884.380.040.04
St. LouisA100.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Florida AtlanticSB0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
HoustonCUSA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
NC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Texas El PasoCUSA0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
TulsaCUSA0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
UABCUSA0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UtahP120.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
ButlerA100.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
CharlotteA100.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
MassachusettsA100.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
ElonSC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
WinthropBSth0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
PacificBW0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
San Jose St.WAC0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
South Carolina UpstateASun0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Utah St.WAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Central FloridaCUSA0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.030.0353.8553.850.000.00
FurmanSC0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
IowaB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
MemphisCUSA0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCAA0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Southern CaliforniaP120.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Southern MississippiCUSA0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
TexasB120.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Texas ChristianB120.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Texas St.WAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
DaytonA100.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
KansasB120.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
RichmondA100.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
SienaMAAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
CincinnatiBE0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
DePaulBE0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
South FloridaBE0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01