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Through games of Feb 11, 2016.


Wagner

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:201.7
Current RPI:211
Expected SOS:342
Current SOS:341
Current Record:14-9
Expected Record:18-10
Current Conf Record:8-5
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:16-7
Current OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC RPI:160
Expected OOC SOS:302



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-9180.715.80%
18-10194.037.60%
17-11208.731.73%
16-12224.912.36%
15-13243.12.36%
14-14262.40.14%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wagner.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13St. John's (233.1)BEA66-57L0%0.0
11-15Seton Hall (55.2)BEA69-59L0%0.0
11-21Maine (310.3)AEH87-73W100%0.0
12-2Morgan St. (331.7)MEACH62-61W100%0.0
12-6American (264.6)PatH55-48W100%0.0
12-8Rider (230.5)MAACA64-65W100%0.0
12-13Monmouth (40.4)MAACA73-54L0%0.0
12-18Fairfield (173.8)MAACA64-76W100%0.0
12-22George Mason (191.9)A10A71-60L0%0.0
12-30UMass Lowell (253.4)AEH76-62W100%0.0
1-2St. Francis PA (226.5)NECA73-65L0%0.0
1-4Robert Morris (306.3)NECA69-72W100%0.0
1-7Bryant (320.9)NECH65-56W100%0.0
1-9Sacred Heart (280.4)NECA59-76W100%0.0
1-14LIU Brooklyn (277.0)NECH70-71L0%0.0
1-16Central Connecticut (350.6)NECH70-48W100%0.0
1-21St. Francis NY (285.0)NECA59-83W100%0.0
1-24Sacred Heart (280.4)NECH58-67L0%0.0
1-28St. Francis NY (285.0)NECH64-61W100%0.0
1-30Mount St. Mary's (229.4)NECA63-73W100%0.0
2-4Fairleigh Dickinson (215.2)NECH79-82L0%0.0
2-6Mount St. Mary's (229.4)NECH72-51W100%0.0
2-11LIU Brooklyn (277.0)NECA82-69L0%0.0
2-13Bryant (320.9)NECA0-075%7.2
2-18Fairleigh Dickinson (215.2)NECA0-051%0.3
2-20Central Connecticut (350.6)NECA0-085%11.4
2-25St. Francis PA (226.5)NECH0-076%7.8
2-27Robert Morris (306.3)NECA0-063%3.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wagner's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Wagner's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Wagner.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
WagnerNEC26.3826.3962.8666.326.788.62
Central ConnecticutNEC3.014.6013.0413.71-2.23-3.34
LIU BrooklynNEC5.144.6045.4547.67-0.47-0.21
Sacred HeartNEC5.194.6031.8235.29-1.89-1.35
Mount St. Mary'sNEC5.114.5845.8349.30-0.43-0.06
St. Francis NYNEC5.074.5843.4846.60-0.66-0.31
St. Francis PANEC2.934.5750.0051.060.000.10
Robert MorrisNEC2.934.5528.0029.30-1.29-1.88
BryantNEC2.894.5525.0025.79-1.44-2.20
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC2.974.5450.0052.140.000.19
UMass LowellAE2.492.0339.1339.08-0.54-0.44
MaineAE2.401.9733.3332.27-0.80-0.70
FairfieldMAAC2.441.9656.5255.960.320.23
RiderMAAC2.321.9341.6743.44-0.39-0.25
AmericanPat2.301.9130.4332.30-0.90-0.67
St. John'sBE2.311.9021.7420.81-1.30-1.11
MonmouthMAAC2.261.9079.1780.541.321.16
Seton HallBE2.221.8569.5766.980.870.63
Morgan St.MEAC2.221.8120.0026.86-1.33-0.84
George MasonA102.171.7930.4331.42-0.85-0.66
HartfordAE0.400.3424.0024.55-0.21-0.17
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.360.3340.9143.32-0.06-0.04
BinghamtonAE0.260.3124.0026.44-0.14-0.15
ManhattanMAAC0.360.2945.4543.23-0.03-0.04
FordhamA100.320.2852.3850.690.020.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.350.2734.7834.97-0.11-0.08
NiagaraMAAC0.270.2724.0024.61-0.14-0.14
AlbanyAE0.220.2573.0873.780.100.12
LafayettePat0.270.2520.8321.68-0.16-0.14
RutgersB100.270.2521.7420.34-0.15-0.15
ArmyPat0.220.2454.1754.290.020.02
LehighPat0.260.2439.1342.83-0.06-0.03
SienaMAAC0.220.2365.3864.970.070.07
New HampshireAE0.220.2259.0956.870.040.03
UMBCAE0.260.2123.0825.87-0.14-0.10
YaleIvy0.220.2173.6874.620.110.10
DartmouthIvy0.270.2131.5831.68-0.10-0.08
Loyola MDPat0.260.2133.3335.18-0.09-0.06
GeorgetownBE0.220.2156.0052.870.030.01
ProvidenceBE0.180.2172.0069.130.080.08
BucknellPat0.260.2152.1754.940.010.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.190.1929.1733.75-0.08-0.06
TowsonCAA0.230.1962.5057.730.060.03
ConnecticutAmer0.220.1970.8370.130.090.07
NJITASun0.220.1856.0055.640.030.02
Boston CollegeACC0.220.1829.1726.69-0.09-0.09
VillanovaBE0.180.1887.5086.850.140.13
CanisiusMAAC0.220.1742.3144.53-0.03-0.02
IonaMAAC0.220.1760.8760.670.050.04
MaristMAAC0.180.1721.7424.25-0.10-0.09
Stony BrookAE0.180.1682.6183.010.120.10
Holy CrossPat0.180.1541.6739.59-0.03-0.03
BrownIvy0.130.1531.5831.01-0.05-0.06
DuquesneA100.130.1560.8756.270.030.02
MarylandB100.170.1587.5083.660.130.10
MarquetteBE0.220.1564.0057.890.060.02
PennIvy0.130.1538.8937.69-0.03-0.04
VermontAE0.180.1352.0054.860.010.01
Notre DameACC0.140.1270.8367.930.060.04
NorthwesternB100.180.1264.0062.090.050.03
ButlerBE0.140.1270.8369.000.060.05
CreightonBE0.140.1264.0062.070.040.03
DePaulBE0.050.1233.3334.02-0.02-0.04
XavierBE0.140.1287.5081.850.100.08
Saint LouisA100.130.1234.7832.39-0.04-0.04
HamptonMEAC0.100.0959.0961.280.020.02
Boston UniversityPat0.140.0956.0056.510.020.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.090.0925.0033.23-0.05-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.090.0972.2274.700.040.05
Incarnate WordSlnd0.140.0952.9452.100.010.00
ColgatePat0.140.0943.4844.90-0.02-0.01
MassachusettsA100.090.0943.4842.40-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.090.0972.0071.570.040.04
Rhode IslandA100.130.0958.3357.250.020.01
VCUA100.090.0970.8371.050.040.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.090.0930.4332.26-0.03-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.090.0966.6765.240.030.03
George WashingtonA100.090.0975.0071.960.050.04
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0959.0955.160.020.01
James MadisonCAA0.130.0972.0071.320.060.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0614.2920.64-0.04-0.04
DelawareCAA0.050.0625.0024.93-0.02-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.050.0665.2260.600.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0643.4850.64-0.000.00
TempleAmer0.050.0665.2262.370.010.02
FIUCUSA0.090.0639.1342.98-0.02-0.01
HofstraCAA0.090.0666.6766.770.030.02
NavyPat0.050.0664.0064.460.010.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.090.0645.0049.27-0.01-0.00
CornellIvy0.090.0642.1140.24-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.100.0683.3378.460.060.03
LongwoodBSth0.090.0621.7424.60-0.05-0.03
DukeACC0.040.0675.0071.840.020.03
HarvardIvy0.040.0635.0038.57-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.090.0634.7836.53-0.03-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.090.0679.1775.990.050.03
MichiganB100.040.0670.8366.750.020.02
North FloridaASun0.090.0662.5064.120.020.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.040.069.0917.14-0.04-0.04
MississippiSEC0.090.0662.5058.940.020.01
Air ForceMWC0.040.0643.4837.80-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.050.0661.9058.170.010.01
DaytonA100.090.0686.9682.160.070.04
ElonCAA0.080.0650.0050.070.000.00
FurmanSC0.080.0656.0054.430.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.080.0679.1777.510.050.03
La SalleA100.040.0619.0520.30-0.03-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.040.0620.0022.25-0.03-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.040.0665.2268.600.010.02
OaklandHorz0.040.0665.3865.510.010.02
Ohio St.B100.080.0660.0055.560.020.01
RichmondA100.050.0656.5255.820.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.040.0665.2264.340.010.02
USCP120.090.0678.2673.130.050.03
WashingtonP120.080.0662.5060.140.020.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0331.8236.11-0.02-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0366.6767.670.020.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0331.8230.08-0.02-0.01
CampbellBSth0.050.0331.8232.08-0.02-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.039.0912.26-0.04-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0325.0025.08-0.03-0.02
High PointBSth0.050.0357.1459.870.010.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0336.3638.97-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0329.1733.11-0.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0358.3363.180.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0338.1037.67-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0352.1754.130.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.050.0345.8341.63-0.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.050.0362.5059.080.010.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0312.0011.95-0.03-0.02
IndianaB100.050.0380.0075.690.030.02
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0347.8351.92-0.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.050.0383.3378.380.030.02
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0386.9680.420.030.02
South FloridaAmer0.050.0320.0019.73-0.03-0.02
SyracuseACC0.050.0368.0064.090.020.01
TroySB0.050.0322.7324.38-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0358.3359.970.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0373.9176.700.020.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.040.0327.2727.80-0.02-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.040.0321.7422.75-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.040.0313.0416.42-0.03-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.040.0350.0049.760.00-0.00
MercerSC0.050.0366.6767.110.020.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0356.0055.450.010.00
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0345.8342.30-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0383.3381.280.030.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0372.7370.410.020.01
UCLAP120.040.0356.5253.400.010.00
Wright St.Horz0.050.0354.1753.810.000.00