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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Wagner

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:218.0
Current RPI:218
Expected SOS:332
Current SOS:332
Current Record:18-12
Expected Record:18-12
Current Conf Record:13-5
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-3
Current OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:244
Expected OOC SOS:315



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-12218.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wagner.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Penn St. (114.0)B10A74-62L0%0.0
11-15St. John's (67.0)BEA73-57L0%0.0
11-18Coppin St. (261.0)MEACA87-102W100%0.0
11-21Vermont (101.0)AEH68-61W100%0.0
11-25Stetson (333.0)ASunN64-81W100%0.0
11-26St. Bonaventure (89.0)A10N70-67L0%0.0
11-27UIC (315.0)HorzN76-94L0%0.0
12-3Lafayette (258.0)PatH65-77L0%0.0
12-7Penn (284.0)IvyA69-75W100%0.0
12-14Rider (198.0)MAACA79-58L0%0.0
12-19La Salle (98.0)A10A80-54L0%0.0
12-30Monmouth (292.0)MAACA52-59W100%0.0
1-9Central Connecticut (293.0)NECA59-88W100%0.0
1-11LIU Brooklyn (297.0)NECH84-70W100%0.0
1-16Mount St. Mary's (188.0)NECA89-80L0%0.0
1-18St. Francis PA (298.0)NECA50-56W100%0.0
1-23Central Connecticut (293.0)NECH83-87L0%0.0
1-25Robert Morris (129.0)NECA74-70L0%0.0
1-30LIU Brooklyn (297.0)NECA68-75W100%0.0
2-1St. Francis NY (190.0)NECA73-72L0%0.0
2-6Fairleigh Dickinson (269.0)NECH75-68W100%0.0
2-8Sacred Heart (338.0)NECA55-62W100%0.0
2-16Bryant (177.0)NECH73-61W100%0.0
2-20Sacred Heart (338.0)NECH74-62W100%0.0
2-22Mount St. Mary's (188.0)NECH71-66W100%0.0
2-24Fairleigh Dickinson (269.0)NECA64-67W100%0.0
2-27St. Francis PA (298.0)NECH74-45W100%0.0
3-1Robert Morris (129.0)NECH59-48W100%0.0
3-5Central Connecticut (293.0)NECH83-59W100%0.0
3-8Mount St. Mary's (188.0)NECH72-77L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wagner's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Wagner's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Wagner.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
WagnerNEC26.4226.4262.8662.866.796.79
Mount St. Mary'sNEC5.815.8148.2848.28-0.20-0.20
Central ConnecticutNEC5.715.7134.6234.62-1.76-1.76
Robert MorrisNEC4.294.2962.5062.501.071.07
St. Francis PANEC4.204.2034.4834.48-1.30-1.30
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC4.144.1433.3333.33-1.38-1.38
Sacred HeartNEC4.124.1217.2417.24-2.70-2.70
LIU BrooklynNEC4.094.0933.3333.33-1.36-1.36
St. Francis NYNEC2.652.6553.3353.330.180.18
BryantNEC2.622.6256.6756.670.350.35
RiderMAAC1.861.8643.3343.33-0.25-0.25
MonmouthMAAC1.861.8635.4835.48-0.54-0.54
Penn St.B101.851.8545.1645.16-0.18-0.18
LafayettePat1.831.8331.0331.03-0.69-0.69
La SalleA101.801.8046.6746.67-0.12-0.12
PennIvy1.801.8029.6329.63-0.73-0.73
St. BonaventureA101.751.7551.6151.610.060.06
St. John'sBE1.721.7261.2961.290.390.39
VermontAE1.691.6968.9768.970.640.64
Coppin St.MEAC1.671.6736.6736.67-0.44-0.44
UICHorz1.671.6710.7110.71-1.31-1.31
StetsonASun1.671.6723.3323.33-0.89-0.89
YaleIvy0.280.2851.8551.850.010.01
NJITind0.280.2836.0036.00-0.08-0.08
HofstraCAA0.280.2830.3030.30-0.11-0.11
HartfordAE0.280.2851.5251.520.010.01
LehighPat0.270.2743.7543.75-0.03-0.03
New HampshireAE0.250.2517.2417.24-0.16-0.16
Norfolk St.MEAC0.250.2553.3353.330.020.02
VillanovaBE0.240.2487.5087.500.180.18
BucknellPat0.240.2453.3353.330.020.02
DuquesneA100.230.2341.3841.38-0.04-0.04
BrownIvy0.230.2351.8551.850.010.01
Seton HallBE0.220.2250.0050.000.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.220.2245.1645.16-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.210.2132.2632.26-0.08-0.08
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.200.2060.0060.000.040.04
AmericanPat0.190.1962.5062.500.050.05
BinghamtonAE0.190.1923.3323.33-0.10-0.10
SienaMAAC0.190.1946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.170.1770.3770.370.070.07
ColumbiaIvy0.170.1760.0060.000.030.03
Stony BrookAE0.170.1768.7568.750.060.06
Ohio St.B100.170.1773.5373.530.080.08
PurdueB100.170.1746.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.160.1672.7372.730.070.07
NiagaraMAAC0.160.1621.2121.21-0.09-0.09
Loyola MDPat0.160.1634.4834.48-0.05-0.05
UMBCAE0.160.1627.5927.59-0.07-0.07
QuinnipiacMAAC0.160.1664.5264.520.050.05
FairfieldMAAC0.160.1621.8821.88-0.09-0.09
IonaMAAC0.160.1668.7568.750.060.06
CanisiusMAAC0.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
Boston UniversityPat0.140.1470.5970.590.060.06
DartmouthIvy0.140.1438.4638.46-0.03-0.03
CornellIvy0.140.143.703.70-0.13-0.13
George MasonA100.140.1435.4835.48-0.04-0.04
NavyPat0.140.1427.5927.59-0.06-0.06
MaristMAAC0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
DaytonA100.130.1369.7069.700.050.05
OaklandHorz0.130.1335.4835.48-0.04-0.04
ProvidenceBE0.130.1367.6567.650.050.05
ManhattanMAAC0.130.1378.1278.120.070.07
Youngstown St.Horz0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.130.1317.8617.86-0.08-0.08
Michigan St.B100.130.1376.4776.470.070.07
HarvardIvy0.110.1186.2186.210.080.08
TempleAmer0.110.1129.0329.03-0.05-0.05
IowaB100.110.1161.2961.290.030.03
AlbanyAE0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
IndianaB100.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
ColgatePat0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.110.1163.3363.330.030.03
RichmondA100.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
DelawareCAA0.100.1073.5373.530.050.05
NortheasternCAA0.090.0934.3834.38-0.03-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
ArmyPat0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
IllinoisB100.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
HamptonMEAC0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
George WashingtonA100.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
MassachusettsA100.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
Saint LouisA100.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
BYUWCC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
MinnesotaB100.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Texas TechB120.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
BuffaloMAC0.080.0864.2964.290.020.02
ArizonaP120.060.0688.2488.240.040.04
DetroitHorz0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.060.0677.7877.780.030.03
LamarSlnd0.060.0610.7110.71-0.05-0.05
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
RutgersAmer0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
Texas St.SB0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
UC IrvineBW0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
MaineAE0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
NorthwesternB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.04-0.04
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
DenverSum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
DrexelCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
East Tennessee St.ASun0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0535.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
LipscombASun0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MercerASun0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Miami FLACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0578.5778.570.030.03
North FloridaASun0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
MichiganB100.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0584.3884.380.040.04
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
ButlerBE0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
DePaulBE0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
MarquetteBE0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
NebraskaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
WisconsinB100.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
XavierBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
AkronMAC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
DavidsonSC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0383.8783.870.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Oregon St.P120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
TowsonCAA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
UCFAmer0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00