Wagner

Conference:	NEC
Expected RPI:	83.5
Current RPI:	74
Expected SOS:	282
Current SOS:	209
Current Record:	19-4
Expected Record:	25-4
Current Conf Record:	10-2
Expected Conf Record:	16-2
Probability of Auto Bid:	50.13%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	17-0
Current OOC Record:	9-2
Expected OOC Record:	9-2
Expected OOC RPI:	48
Expected OOC SOS:	172

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
25-4	79.1	58.79%
24-5	88.3	35.40%
23-6	98.3	5.45%
22-7	110.2	0.35%
21-8	133.0	0.01%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wagner.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-12	Princeton (117.6)	Ivy	A	57-73	W	100%	0.0
11-14	Connecticut (27.1)	BE	A	78-66	L	0%	0.0
11-16	North Carolina Central (240.5)	MEAC	H	87-83	W	100%	0.0
11-19	Lafayette (210.2)	Pat	A	70-76	W	100%	0.0
11-22	Pennsylvania (113.9)	Ivy	A	65-71	W	100%	0.0
11-26	Delaware St. (279.9)	MEAC	H	85-62	W	100%	0.0
12-1	Long Island (107.1)	NEC	A	78-73	L	0%	0.0
12-3	St. Francis NY (188.7)	NEC	H	90-50	W	100%	0.0
12-6	Hofstra (239.2)	CAA	H	58-43	W	100%	0.0
12-10	Lehigh (109.7)	Pat	H	69-70	L	0%	0.0
12-23	Pittsburgh (74.5)	BE	A	54-59	W	100%	0.0
12-29	Air Force (174.7)	MWC	N	61-72	W	100%	0.0
12-30	Santa Clara (271.9)	WCC	A	62-64	W	100%	0.0
1-5	Fairleigh Dickinson (323.4)	NEC	A	64-88	W	100%	0.0
1-7	Monmouth (275.8)	NEC	A	79-89	W	100%	0.0
1-12	Bryant (334.0)	NEC	H	78-61	W	100%	0.0
1-14	Central Connecticut (236.3)	NEC	H	67-58	W	100%	0.0
1-19	St. Francis NY (188.7)	NEC	A	61-73	W	100%	0.0
1-21	Long Island (107.1)	NEC	H	66-73	L	0%	0.0
1-26	Sacred Heart (242.3)	NEC	A	54-73	W	100%	0.0
1-28	Quinnipiac (175.1)	NEC	A	50-51	W	100%	0.0
2-2	Robert Morris (111.2)	NEC	H	80-69	W	100%	0.0
2-4	St. Francis PA (303.9)	NEC	H	72-54	W	100%	0.0
2-8	Mount St. Mary's (291.1)	NEC	A	0-0		90%	13.8
2-11	Mount St. Mary's (291.1)	NEC	H	0-0		97%	20.5
2-16	Fairleigh Dickinson (323.4)	NEC	H	0-0		99%	24.7
2-18	Monmouth (275.8)	NEC	H	0-0		98%	22.8
2-23	Bryant (334.0)	NEC	A	0-0		95%	18.0
2-25	Central Connecticut (236.3)	NEC	A	0-0		74%	7.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wagner's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Wagner's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Wagner.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Wagner	NEC	26.31	26.27	83.19	85.32	17.47	18.56
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.74	4.27	26.09	30.23	-0.35	-1.69
Long Island	NEC	4.81	4.27	68.18	68.98	1.75	1.62
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	2.82	4.26	9.09	12.99	-2.31	-3.16
St. Francis NY	NEC	4.81	4.26	61.90	60.09	1.14	0.86
Monmouth	NEC	2.77	4.24	29.17	30.84	-1.16	-1.63
Bryant	NEC	2.78	4.18	8.70	11.46	-2.30	-3.22
Central Connecticut	NEC	2.72	4.14	47.62	48.21	-0.13	-0.15
St. Francis PA	NEC	2.87	2.63	22.73	23.57	-1.56	-1.39
Robert Morris	NEC	2.82	2.60	70.83	72.36	1.18	1.16
Sacred Heart	NEC	2.78	2.57	45.83	47.41	-0.23	-0.13
Quinnipiac	NEC	2.77	2.57	59.09	59.19	0.50	0.47
Lafayette	Pat	2.69	2.13	45.45	44.48	-0.24	-0.24
Lehigh	Pat	2.41	1.96	72.73	74.02	1.09	0.94
Pennsylvania	Ivy	2.37	1.87	57.14	58.73	0.34	0.33
Hofstra	CAA	2.36	1.84	33.33	36.57	-0.79	-0.49
Pittsburgh	BE	2.31	1.84	63.64	60.10	0.63	0.37
Princeton	Ivy	2.27	1.81	50.00	54.82	0.00	0.17
Delaware St.	MEAC	2.23	1.76	37.50	41.44	-0.56	-0.30
North Carolina Central	MEAC	2.24	1.76	41.18	45.68	-0.39	-0.15
Connecticut	BE	2.17	1.75	66.67	62.75	0.72	0.45
Air Force	MWC	2.17	1.72	50.00	43.85	0.00	-0.21
Santa Clara	WCC	2.17	1.72	30.00	27.32	-0.87	-0.78
Brown	Ivy	0.38	0.38	27.27	23.80	-0.17	-0.20
Army	Pat	0.34	0.33	40.91	41.72	-0.06	-0.05
Yale	Ivy	0.29	0.29	72.22	63.19	0.13	0.08
Columbia	Ivy	0.34	0.29	55.00	54.80	0.03	0.03
Colgate	Pat	0.33	0.27	30.43	29.50	-0.13	-0.11
Navy	Pat	0.23	0.26	9.52	13.19	-0.19	-0.19
Albany	AE	0.23	0.26	60.00	60.42	0.05	0.05
American	Pat	0.19	0.24	65.22	63.79	0.06	0.07
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.28	0.21	33.33	38.38	-0.09	-0.05
Notre Dame	BE	0.30	0.20	65.22	62.65	0.09	0.05
Harvard	Ivy	0.09	0.20	90.48	87.91	0.08	0.15
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.25	0.18	68.18	69.68	0.09	0.07
Bucknell	Pat	0.20	0.18	73.91	75.00	0.10	0.09
Hartford	AE	0.14	0.18	17.39	20.97	-0.09	-0.10
Holy Cross	Pat	0.23	0.18	40.91	42.05	-0.04	-0.03
La Salle	A10	0.24	0.17	70.83	68.82	0.10	0.07
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.05	0.17	14.29	17.17	-0.03	-0.11
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.23	0.17	21.74	24.58	-0.13	-0.09
Providence	BE	0.14	0.17	56.52	50.27	0.02	0.00
Villanova	BE	0.14	0.17	45.45	46.08	-0.01	-0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.24	0.17	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.24	0.17	37.50	38.52	-0.06	-0.04
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.29	0.16	20.00	19.96	-0.18	-0.10
Howard	MEAC	0.22	0.16	18.18	22.22	-0.14	-0.09
Hampton	MEAC	0.09	0.16	36.36	38.48	-0.02	-0.04
Cornell	Ivy	0.15	0.15	36.84	41.45	-0.04	-0.03
Penn St.	B10	0.14	0.15	41.67	38.67	-0.02	-0.03
Vermont	AE	0.19	0.15	60.00	62.49	0.04	0.04
Delaware	CAA	0.20	0.15	47.83	50.65	-0.01	0.00
St. John's	BE	0.19	0.15	43.48	40.28	-0.02	-0.03
Seton Hall	BE	0.19	0.14	65.22	63.74	0.06	0.04
Louisville	BE	0.09	0.14	78.26	72.66	0.05	0.07
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.24	0.13	19.05	22.37	-0.15	-0.07
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.13	10.00	14.93	-0.04	-0.09
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.00	0.13	52.38	57.86	0.00	0.02
San Diego St.	MWC	0.10	0.12	85.71	78.05	0.07	0.07
Niagara	MAAC	0.14	0.12	37.50	41.54	-0.04	-0.02
Siena	MAAC	0.06	0.12	45.45	45.55	-0.01	-0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.15	0.12	79.17	78.10	0.09	0.07
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.12	79.17	75.98	0.03	0.06
George Mason	CAA	0.09	0.11	76.00	72.50	0.05	0.05
James Madison	CAA	0.18	0.11	40.00	40.18	-0.04	-0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.12	0.10	38.10	42.78	-0.03	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.06	0.10	25.00	37.58	-0.03	-0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.12	0.10	33.33	37.25	-0.04	-0.03
New Mexico	MWC	0.11	0.10	81.82	81.03	0.07	0.06
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.18	0.10	70.83	64.42	0.08	0.03
Gonzaga	WCC	0.11	0.10	81.82	81.49	0.07	0.06
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.17	0.10	50.00	51.73	0.00	0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.11	0.10	42.11	49.81	-0.02	-0.00
Massachusetts	A10	0.10	0.09	73.91	68.58	0.05	0.03
Michigan St.	B10	0.10	0.09	76.19	72.91	0.05	0.04
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.10	0.09	13.64	16.35	-0.07	-0.06
Stony Brook	AE	0.09	0.09	66.67	68.05	0.03	0.03
Northeastern	CAA	0.14	0.09	47.83	48.56	-0.01	-0.00
Fordham	A10	0.09	0.09	40.91	34.50	-0.02	-0.03
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.09	0.09	69.57	65.87	0.04	0.03
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.13	0.09	80.00	78.06	0.08	0.05
Boston College	ACC	0.09	0.09	30.43	26.44	-0.03	-0.04
Iona	MAAC	0.13	0.09	79.17	80.10	0.08	0.05
Old Dominion	CAA	0.13	0.09	60.00	58.29	0.03	0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.05	0.09	95.83	92.01	0.04	0.07
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.08	54.55	48.60	0.00	-0.00
West Virginia	BE	0.10	0.08	65.22	65.17	0.03	0.03
Boise St.	MWC	0.06	0.07	42.86	41.13	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.06	0.07	66.67	60.80	0.02	0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.06	0.07	82.61	81.44	0.04	0.04
Texas Christian	MWC	0.06	0.07	57.14	49.54	0.01	-0.00
Wyoming	MWC	0.06	0.07	76.19	70.73	0.03	0.03
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.11	0.07	40.91	38.38	-0.02	-0.02
Brigham Young	WCC	0.05	0.06	75.00	76.00	0.03	0.03
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.05	0.06	59.09	57.76	0.01	0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.05	0.06	31.82	33.83	-0.02	-0.02
Portland	WCC	0.10	0.06	21.74	21.70	-0.06	-0.04
San Diego	WCC	0.10	0.06	33.33	33.82	-0.03	-0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.05	0.06	56.52	53.77	0.01	0.00
St. Mary's	WCC	0.05	0.06	90.91	87.74	0.04	0.05
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.06	61.90	55.14	0.01	0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.10	0.06	45.00	44.15	-0.01	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.11	0.06	72.73	71.71	0.05	0.03
Longwood	ind	0.05	0.06	30.00	27.84	-0.02	-0.03
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.00	0.06	77.27	73.45	0.00	0.03
Maryland	ACC	0.00	0.06	59.09	50.82	0.00	0.00
Minnesota	B10	0.00	0.06	69.57	61.31	0.00	0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.10	0.06	54.55	54.30	0.01	0.01
Boston University	AE	0.09	0.06	48.00	51.88	-0.00	0.00
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.06	12.50	13.44	-0.04	-0.04
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.09	0.06	50.00	51.53	0.00	0.00
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.06	66.67	68.55	0.02	0.02
Radford	BSth	0.09	0.06	8.70	13.10	-0.07	-0.04
Southern Utah	Sum	0.05	0.06	45.45	44.30	-0.00	-0.01
Texas St.	Slnd	0.09	0.06	22.22	27.62	-0.05	-0.03
UC Davis	BW	0.05	0.06	0.00	5.37	-0.05	-0.05
Cincinnati	BE	0.10	0.06	69.57	65.47	0.04	0.02
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.06	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.10	0.06	80.95	77.38	0.06	0.03
Tennessee	SEC	0.10	0.06	45.45	44.66	-0.01	-0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.09	0.06	81.82	80.43	0.06	0.03
Duquesne	A10	0.09	0.06	59.09	56.35	0.02	0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.09	0.06	68.00	69.07	0.03	0.02
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.04	0.06	39.13	36.10	-0.01	-0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.04	0.06	86.96	83.16	0.03	0.04
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.04	0.06	56.52	55.20	0.01	0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.06	0.03	17.39	24.41	-0.04	-0.02
Charlotte	A10	0.06	0.03	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Chicago St.	GWC	0.06	0.03	4.76	9.95	-0.05	-0.03
Colorado	P12	0.06	0.03	66.67	62.65	0.02	0.01
Drake	MVC	0.06	0.03	52.17	50.09	0.00	0.00
East Carolina	CUSA	0.06	0.03	44.44	41.71	-0.01	-0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.00	0.03	34.78	38.77	-0.00	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.06	0.03	34.78	32.08	-0.02	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.06	0.03	45.45	41.20	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.06	0.03	39.13	42.12	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.00	0.03	75.00	75.78	0.00	0.02
Oregon	P12	0.06	0.03	69.57	64.53	0.02	0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.03	35.00	40.78	-0.02	-0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.06	0.03	47.06	50.75	-0.00	0.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.06	0.03	56.52	53.10	0.01	0.00
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.06	0.03	19.05	24.61	-0.04	-0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.06	0.03	47.83	43.66	-0.00	-0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.06	0.03	41.67	40.61	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.05	0.03	21.05	22.46	-0.03	-0.02
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.05	0.03	25.00	28.52	-0.03	-0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.03	59.09	54.70	0.01	0.00
Pacific	BW	0.05	0.03	35.00	37.47	-0.02	-0.01
San Jose St.	WAC	0.05	0.03	27.27	26.95	-0.02	-0.01
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.05	0.03	55.56	58.01	0.01	0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.05	0.03	50.00	48.17	0.00	-0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.06	0.03	68.42	66.45	0.02	0.01
Elon	SC	0.06	0.03	50.00	47.59	0.00	-0.00
Morehead St.	OVC	0.06	0.03	45.45	46.99	-0.01	-0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.03	73.91	68.43	0.02	0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.03	27.27	27.21	-0.02	-0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.03	60.00	59.06	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.03	69.57	65.15	0.02	0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.05	0.03	71.43	66.60	0.02	0.01
Maine	AE	0.05	0.03	50.00	49.73	0.00	-0.00
NC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.03	68.18	67.64	0.02	0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.04	0.03	0.00	4.02	-0.04	-0.03
Davidson	SC	0.05	0.03	76.19	76.76	0.03	0.01
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.03	86.36	83.09	0.04	0.02
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.04	0.03	36.36	39.72	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.04	0.03	66.67	69.69	0.01	0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.04	0.03	43.48	43.82	-0.01	-0.00
Long Beach St.	BW	0.05	0.03	71.43	73.35	0.02	0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.04	0.03	54.17	54.75	0.00	0.00
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.03	34.78	33.43	-0.02	-0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.04	0.03	69.57	71.51	0.02	0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.04	0.03	35.00	38.58	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.04	0.03	81.82	77.20	0.03	0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.03	45.45	40.70	-0.00	-0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.04	0.03	63.64	63.16	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.04	0.03	20.83	20.60	-0.03	-0.02
Richmond	A10	0.04	0.03	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.03	62.50	62.49	0.01	0.01
Temple	A10	0.05	0.03	77.27	75.06	0.03	0.01
Towson	CAA	0.04	0.03	4.00	5.26	-0.04	-0.02
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.03	54.55	56.79	0.00	0.00