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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Wagner

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:294.0
Current RPI:294
Expected SOS:244
Current SOS:244
Current Record:9-20
Expected Record:9-20
Current Conf Record:8-11
Expected Conf Record:8-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-14
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-4
Current OOC Record:1-9
Expected OOC Record:1-9
Expected OOC RPI:309
Expected OOC SOS:140



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
9-20294.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wagner.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Maryland (13.0)B10A82-48L0%0.0
11-18Columbia (196.0)IvyA70-56L0%0.0
11-23Hofstra (174.0)CAAA93-71L0%0.0
11-29Penn (254.0)IvyH64-61W100%0.0
12-2Maine (339.0)AEA82-81L0%0.0
12-6Lafayette (122.0)PatA97-84L0%0.0
12-14Vermont (203.0)AEA61-47L0%0.0
12-20Monmouth (176.0)MAACH66-74L0%0.0
12-23Cincinnati (37.0)AmerA72-48L0%0.0
12-29Rider (140.0)MAACH71-76L0%0.0
1-3St. Francis PA (179.0)NECA85-68L0%0.0
1-5Mount St. Mary's (188.0)NECH85-83W100%0.0
1-8Robert Morris (171.0)NECH73-77L0%0.0
1-10LIU Brooklyn (256.0)NECH87-82W100%0.0
1-15Bryant (189.0)NECA81-73L0%0.0
1-17Fairleigh Dickinson (312.0)NECA68-82W100%0.0
1-22St. Francis PA (179.0)NECH63-58W100%0.0
1-24Central Connecticut (342.0)NECA53-50L0%0.0
1-29Sacred Heart (242.0)NECH75-64W100%0.0
1-31Central Connecticut (342.0)NECH86-55W100%0.0
2-5Sacred Heart (242.0)NECA86-75L0%0.0
2-7St. Francis NY (170.0)NECH51-66L0%0.0
2-12St. Francis NY (170.0)NECA83-66L0%0.0
2-14Fairleigh Dickinson (312.0)NECH83-79W100%0.0
2-19Bryant (189.0)NECH65-66L0%0.0
2-21LIU Brooklyn (256.0)NECA47-60W100%0.0
2-26Robert Morris (171.0)NECA91-59L0%0.0
2-28Mount St. Mary's (188.0)NECA74-64L0%0.0
3-4Robert Morris (171.0)NECA91-68L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wagner's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Wagner's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Wagner.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
WagnerNEC26.4226.4230.4330.43-10.34-10.34
Robert MorrisNEC6.216.2153.3353.330.410.41
St. Francis NYNEC4.664.6664.5264.521.351.35
BryantNEC4.564.5648.2848.28-0.16-0.16
St. Francis PANEC4.534.5350.0050.000.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC4.514.5113.7913.79-3.26-3.26
LIU BrooklynNEC4.504.5042.8642.86-0.64-0.64
Sacred HeartNEC4.484.4844.8344.83-0.46-0.46
Mount St. Mary'sNEC4.454.4550.0050.000.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC4.454.4526.9226.92-2.05-2.05
LafayettePat1.951.9560.0060.000.390.39
MonmouthMAAC1.941.9453.1253.120.120.12
ColumbiaIvy1.931.9342.3142.31-0.30-0.30
HofstraCAA1.871.8759.3859.380.350.35
PennIvy1.871.8733.3333.33-0.62-0.62
RiderMAAC1.861.8664.5264.520.540.54
MaineAE1.841.846.906.90-1.59-1.59
VermontAE1.841.8455.1755.170.190.19
MarylandB101.811.8181.2581.251.131.13
CincinnatiAmer1.781.7867.7467.740.630.63
New HampshireAE0.340.3458.6258.620.060.06
Stony BrookAE0.320.3265.6265.620.100.10
NJITind0.310.3156.0056.000.040.04
RutgersB100.310.3131.2531.25-0.11-0.11
YaleIvy0.290.2966.6766.670.100.10
BrownIvy0.290.2937.9337.93-0.07-0.07
HartfordAE0.250.2544.8344.83-0.03-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.240.2451.7251.720.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.240.2450.0050.000.000.00
AmericanPat0.230.2351.5251.520.010.01
LehighPat0.230.2351.7251.720.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.220.2258.8258.820.040.04
HarvardIvy0.210.2174.0774.070.100.10
BinghamtonAE0.200.2016.6716.67-0.14-0.14
AlbanyAE0.200.2075.0075.000.100.10
UMBCAE0.200.2013.3313.33-0.15-0.15
TowsonCAA0.200.2035.4835.48-0.06-0.06
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.190.1947.0647.06-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.190.1948.2848.28-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.190.1933.3333.33-0.06-0.06
Saint Joseph'sA100.180.1841.9441.94-0.03-0.03
BucknellPat0.170.1756.2556.250.020.02
UMass LowellAE0.170.1739.2939.29-0.04-0.04
QuinnipiacMAAC0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.160.1622.5822.58-0.09-0.09
CanisiusMAAC0.160.1653.3353.330.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.150.1536.6736.67-0.04-0.04
NavyPat0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
ColgatePat0.140.1446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.140.1469.7069.700.060.06
MaristMAAC0.140.1421.8821.88-0.08-0.08
NiagaraMAAC0.140.1426.6726.67-0.06-0.06
DuquesneA100.140.1436.6736.67-0.04-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.140.1458.0658.060.020.02
SienaMAAC0.130.1335.4835.48-0.04-0.04
James MadisonCAA0.130.1359.3859.380.030.03
IonaMAAC0.130.1376.4776.470.070.07
GeorgetownBE0.130.1367.7467.740.050.05
CornellIvy0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.120.1285.2985.290.080.08
St. John'sBE0.120.1264.5264.520.030.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.110.1151.5251.520.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
Michigan St.B100.110.1167.6567.650.040.04
Seton HallBE0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Ohio St.B100.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
SMUAmer0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
NebraskaB100.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
BuffaloMAC0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
ClemsonACC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
IndianaB100.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.080.0868.5768.570.030.03
ToledoMAC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
ArizonaP120.060.0691.1891.180.050.05
FIUCUSA0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0677.4277.420.030.03
TexasB120.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.060.0658.8258.820.010.01
CampbellBSth0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
DenverSum0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
KansasB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
West VirginiaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
HoustonAmer0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0575.8675.860.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0527.2727.27-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
FordhamA100.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
NortheasternCAA0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Penn St.B100.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
KentuckySEC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
VillanovaBE0.030.0394.1294.120.030.03
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0371.4371.430.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
USCP120.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
MississippiSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
VCUA100.030.0374.2974.290.010.01
XavierBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
IowaB100.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
PurdueB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0390.6290.620.020.02
VMISC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
WisconsinB100.030.0391.1891.180.020.02