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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Wagner

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:185.0
Current RPI:185
Expected SOS:334
Current SOS:334
Current Record:21-10
Expected Record:21-10
Current Conf Record:15-6
Expected Conf Record:15-6
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:20-8
Current OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC RPI:150
Expected OOC SOS:288



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-10185.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wagner.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13St. John's (246.0)BEA66-57L0%0.0
11-15Seton Hall (19.0)BEA69-59L0%0.0
11-21Maine (317.0)AEH87-73W100%0.0
12-2Morgan St. (327.0)MEACH62-61W100%0.0
12-6American (231.0)PatH55-48W100%0.0
12-8Rider (242.0)MAACA64-65W100%0.0
12-13Monmouth (52.0)MAACA73-54L0%0.0
12-18Fairfield (142.0)MAACA64-76W100%0.0
12-22George Mason (201.0)A10A71-60L0%0.0
12-30UMass Lowell (261.0)AEH76-62W100%0.0
1-2St. Francis PA (266.0)NECA73-65L0%0.0
1-4Robert Morris (291.0)NECA69-72W100%0.0
1-7Bryant (320.0)NECH65-56W100%0.0
1-9Sacred Heart (258.0)NECA59-76W100%0.0
1-14LIU Brooklyn (254.0)NECH70-71L0%0.0
1-16Central Connecticut (351.0)NECH70-48W100%0.0
1-21St. Francis NY (276.0)NECA59-83W100%0.0
1-24Sacred Heart (258.0)NECH58-67L0%0.0
1-28St. Francis NY (276.0)NECH64-61W100%0.0
1-30Mount St. Mary's (245.0)NECA63-73W100%0.0
2-4Fairleigh Dickinson (205.0)NECH79-82L0%0.0
2-6Mount St. Mary's (245.0)NECH72-51W100%0.0
2-11LIU Brooklyn (254.0)NECA82-69L0%0.0
2-13Bryant (320.0)NECA55-79W100%0.0
2-18Fairleigh Dickinson (205.0)NECA74-94W100%0.0
2-20Central Connecticut (351.0)NECA57-83W100%0.0
2-25St. Francis PA (266.0)NECH69-54W100%0.0
2-27Robert Morris (291.0)NECH62-54W100%0.0
3-2Robert Morris (291.0)NECH59-50W100%0.0
3-5LIU Brooklyn (254.0)NECH81-65W100%0.0
3-8Fairleigh Dickinson (205.0)NECH79-87L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wagner's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Wagner's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Wagner.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
WagnerNEC26.5926.5968.2868.289.729.72
LIU BrooklynNEC5.895.8950.0050.000.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC5.895.8953.5753.570.420.42
Robert MorrisNEC5.795.7934.4834.48-1.80-1.80
Mount St. Mary'sNEC4.394.3945.1645.16-0.42-0.42
Sacred HeartNEC4.354.3539.2939.29-0.93-0.93
St. Francis PANEC4.324.3240.7440.74-0.80-0.80
St. Francis NYNEC4.304.3048.2848.28-0.15-0.15
Central ConnecticutNEC4.274.2714.8114.81-3.01-3.01
BryantNEC4.224.2225.0025.00-2.11-2.11
UMass LowellAE1.851.8537.0437.04-0.48-0.48
MaineAE1.801.8027.5927.59-0.81-0.81
FairfieldMAAC1.791.7961.2961.290.400.40
MonmouthMAAC1.761.7678.7978.791.011.01
RiderMAAC1.761.7640.6240.62-0.33-0.33
AmericanPat1.721.7240.0040.00-0.34-0.34
St. John'sBE1.711.7120.0020.00-1.03-1.03
Seton HallBE1.661.6675.0075.000.830.83
Morgan St.MEAC1.641.6427.5927.59-0.73-0.73
George MasonA101.611.6132.2632.26-0.57-0.57
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.330.3346.6746.67-0.02-0.02
HartfordAE0.300.3028.1228.12-0.13-0.13
FordhamA100.290.2955.1755.170.030.03
BinghamtonAE0.270.2726.6726.67-0.13-0.13
LehighPat0.260.2651.6151.610.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.250.2530.0030.00-0.10-0.10
ManhattanMAAC0.250.2541.9441.94-0.04-0.04
NiagaraMAAC0.250.2521.8821.88-0.14-0.14
RutgersB100.240.2419.3519.35-0.15-0.15
LafayettePat0.240.2420.0020.00-0.14-0.14
ArmyPat0.230.2358.0658.060.040.04
AlbanyAE0.220.2274.1974.190.110.11
DartmouthIvy0.210.2133.3333.33-0.07-0.07
Loyola MDPat0.200.2030.0030.00-0.08-0.08
VillanovaBE0.200.2085.2985.290.140.14
BucknellPat0.200.2055.1755.170.020.02
SienaMAAC0.200.2063.6463.640.050.05
New HampshireAE0.190.1958.6258.620.030.03
YaleIvy0.190.1977.7877.780.100.10
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.190.1929.0329.03-0.08-0.08
UMBCAE0.190.1921.8821.88-0.10-0.10
TowsonCAA0.180.1860.0060.000.040.04
ProvidenceBE0.180.1869.7069.700.070.07
GeorgetownBE0.180.1845.4545.45-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.170.1768.7568.750.060.06
ConnecticutAmer0.170.1770.5970.590.070.07
Boston CollegeACC0.160.1621.8821.88-0.09-0.09
NJITASun0.160.1653.3353.330.010.01
PennIvy0.160.1637.0437.04-0.04-0.04
DuquesneA100.160.1648.3948.39-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.150.1560.6160.610.030.03
CanisiusMAAC0.150.1542.4242.42-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.150.1523.3323.33-0.08-0.08
VermontAE0.140.1460.6160.610.030.03
Stony BrookAE0.140.1480.0080.000.080.08
BrownIvy0.140.1425.9325.93-0.07-0.07
Holy CrossPat0.130.1342.4242.42-0.02-0.02
MarylandB100.130.1375.0075.000.060.06
Saint LouisA100.130.1334.3834.38-0.04-0.04
CreightonBE0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
XavierBE0.130.1384.3884.380.090.09
Notre DameACC0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
NorthwesternB100.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
Boston UniversityPat0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.100.1056.0056.000.010.01
MassachusettsA100.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
PrincetonIvy0.100.1077.7877.780.060.06
Youngstown St.Horz0.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
ButlerBE0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
DePaulBE0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
ColumbiaIvy0.100.1065.5265.520.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
DelawareCAA0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
FIUCUSA0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
TempleAmer0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
ColgatePat0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0822.8622.86-0.04-0.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
OaklandHorz0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
George WashingtonA100.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
James MadisonCAA0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
HarvardIvy0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
MichiganB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
CornellIvy0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
VirginiaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
LibertyBSth0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
NavyPat0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
North FloridaASun0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
DavidsonA100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
RichmondA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
La SalleA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
DaytonA100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
ElonCAA0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Ohio St.B100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
WashingtonP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
USCP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0372.4172.410.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0362.8662.860.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
LSUSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
MercerSC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0379.4179.410.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
BradleyMVC0.020.0212.9012.90-0.02-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.020.0224.2424.24-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
DrexelCAA0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00