Wagner

Conference:	NEC
Expected RPI:	109.0
Current RPI:	109
Expected SOS:	275
Current SOS:	275
Current Record:	21-9
Expected Record:	21-9
Current Conf Record:	16-5
Expected Conf Record:	16-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	14-5
Current OOC Record:	5-4
Expected OOC Record:	5-4
Expected OOC RPI:	101
Expected OOC SOS:	152

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
21-9	109.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wagner.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	NJIT (269.0)	ASun	A	49-60	W	100%
11-13	Missouri (43.0)	SEC	A	99-55	L	0%
11-18	American (336.0)	Pat	H	71-70	W	100%
11-26	Hartford (198.0)	AE	A	50-72	W	100%
12-1	Fairfield (180.0)	MAAC	H	78-76	W	100%
12-5	UMass Lowell (289.0)	AE	H	90-72	W	100%
12-16	Rider (69.0)	MAAC	A	90-84	L	0%
12-20	Seton Hall (31.0)	BE	A	89-68	L	0%
12-23	Dayton (146.0)	A10	A	79-67	L	0%
12-29	Mount St. Mary's (225.0)	NEC	H	76-57	W	100%
12-31	St. Francis NY (276.0)	NEC	A	82-75	L	0%
1-4	Sacred Heart (321.0)	NEC	H	69-63	W	100%
1-6	Fairleigh Dickinson (254.0)	NEC	H	73-65	W	100%
1-11	Bryant (341.0)	NEC	A	62-71	W	100%
1-13	LIU Brooklyn (232.0)	NEC	A	69-67	L	0%
1-18	St. Francis PA (178.0)	NEC	H	73-64	W	100%
1-20	Robert Morris (196.0)	NEC	H	62-49	W	100%
1-26	St. Francis PA (178.0)	NEC	A	61-91	W	100%
1-28	Robert Morris (196.0)	NEC	A	64-77	W	100%
2-1	Central Connecticut (263.0)	NEC	H	72-59	W	100%
2-3	St. Francis NY (276.0)	NEC	H	79-61	W	100%
2-8	Bryant (341.0)	NEC	H	96-76	W	100%
2-11	Fairleigh Dickinson (254.0)	NEC	A	76-69	L	0%
2-15	Sacred Heart (321.0)	NEC	A	84-99	W	100%
2-17	LIU Brooklyn (232.0)	NEC	H	78-74	W	100%
2-22	Central Connecticut (263.0)	NEC	A	62-64	W	100%
2-24	Mount St. Mary's (225.0)	NEC	A	73-62	L	0%
2-28	Central Connecticut (263.0)	NEC	H	73-61	W	100%
3-3	Robert Morris (196.0)	NEC	H	75-64	W	100%
3-6	LIU Brooklyn (232.0)	NEC	H	61-71	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wagner's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Wagner's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Wagner.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Wagner	NEC	26.61	26.61	74.59	74.59	13.09	13.09
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	6.24	6.24	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	6.07	6.07	53.33	53.33	0.40	0.40
Central Connecticut	NEC	6.04	6.04	48.28	48.28	-0.21	-0.21
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	4.55	4.55	37.04	37.04	-1.18	-1.18
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	4.46	4.46	53.57	53.57	0.32	0.32
St. Francis PA	NEC	4.44	4.44	61.54	61.54	1.02	1.02
St. Francis NY	NEC	4.43	4.43	37.04	37.04	-1.15	-1.15
Sacred Heart	NEC	4.42	4.42	32.14	32.14	-1.58	-1.58
Bryant	NEC	4.39	4.39	10.34	10.34	-3.48	-3.48
Hartford	AE	2.09	2.09	60.00	60.00	0.42	0.42
UMass Lowell	AE	1.96	1.96	39.29	39.29	-0.42	-0.42
NJIT	ASun	1.85	1.85	44.44	44.44	-0.21	-0.21
Rider	MAAC	1.82	1.82	70.00	70.00	0.73	0.73
Fairfield	MAAC	1.80	1.80	53.12	53.12	0.11	0.11
American	Pat	1.78	1.78	20.69	20.69	-1.04	-1.04
Seton Hall	BE	1.75	1.75	64.52	64.52	0.51	0.51
Dayton	A10	1.67	1.67	43.33	43.33	-0.22	-0.22
Missouri	SEC	1.67	1.67	60.00	60.00	0.33	0.33
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.38	0.38	43.75	43.75	-0.05	-0.05
Brown	Ivy	0.32	0.32	38.46	38.46	-0.07	-0.07
Rutgers	B10	0.27	0.27	42.42	42.42	-0.04	-0.04
Stony Brook	AE	0.25	0.25	38.71	38.71	-0.06	-0.06
Maine	AE	0.24	0.24	13.33	13.33	-0.18	-0.18
New Hampshire	AE	0.24	0.24	27.59	27.59	-0.11	-0.11
Binghamton	AE	0.24	0.24	31.03	31.03	-0.09	-0.09
Iona	MAAC	0.22	0.22	60.61	60.61	0.05	0.05
St. John's	BE	0.21	0.21	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.21	0.21	25.00	25.00	-0.10	-0.10
Manhattan	MAAC	0.19	0.19	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.19	0.19	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
North Florida	ASun	0.17	0.17	36.67	36.67	-0.05	-0.05
Lehigh	Pat	0.17	0.17	51.72	51.72	0.01	0.01
Lafayette	Pat	0.17	0.17	30.00	30.00	-0.07	-0.07
Holy Cross	Pat	0.17	0.17	38.71	38.71	-0.04	-0.04
UMBC	AE	0.17	0.17	67.74	67.74	0.06	0.06
Navy	Pat	0.17	0.17	61.29	61.29	0.04	0.04
Loyola MD	Pat	0.17	0.17	26.67	26.67	-0.08	-0.08
Albany	AE	0.16	0.16	67.74	67.74	0.06	0.06
Niagara	MAAC	0.16	0.16	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Boston College	ACC	0.16	0.16	55.88	55.88	0.02	0.02
Fordham	A10	0.16	0.16	29.03	29.03	-0.07	-0.07
Marist	MAAC	0.16	0.16	19.35	19.35	-0.10	-0.10
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.16	0.16	36.36	36.36	-0.04	-0.04
Canisius	MAAC	0.15	0.15	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Louisville	ACC	0.14	0.14	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Marquette	BE	0.14	0.14	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Providence	BE	0.13	0.13	61.76	61.76	0.03	0.03
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.13	0.13	15.62	15.62	-0.09	-0.09
Drexel	CAA	0.13	0.13	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Monmouth	MAAC	0.13	0.13	35.48	35.48	-0.04	-0.04
DePaul	BE	0.13	0.13	35.48	35.48	-0.04	-0.04
Miami OH	MAC	0.13	0.13	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.13	0.13	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.12	0.12	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Army	Pat	0.11	0.11	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Notre Dame	ACC	0.11	0.11	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Vermont	AE	0.11	0.11	78.79	78.79	0.06	0.06
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.11	0.11	23.08	23.08	-0.06	-0.06
Georgetown	BE	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.11	0.11	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
VCU	A10	0.11	0.11	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.11	0.11	75.76	75.76	0.05	0.05
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.09	0.09	84.85	84.85	0.06	0.06
Colgate	Pat	0.09	0.09	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
West Virginia	B12	0.08	0.08	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Penn St.	B10	0.08	0.08	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Boston University	Pat	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.08	0.08	39.39	39.39	-0.02	-0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Rhode Island	A10	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Xavier	BE	0.08	0.08	84.85	84.85	0.06	0.06
Butler	BE	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	32.35	32.35	-0.03	-0.03
East Carolina	Amer	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Little Rock	SB	0.08	0.08	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.08	0.08	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
San Diego	WCC	0.08	0.08	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Tulane	Amer	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Duke	ACC	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Lipscomb	ASun	0.06	0.06	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Longwood	BSth	0.06	0.06	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
San Francisco	WCC	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Stetson	ASun	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
USC Upstate	ASun	0.06	0.06	10.71	10.71	-0.05	-0.05
Denver	Sum	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Maryland	B10	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.06	0.06	73.53	73.53	0.03	0.03
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Memphis	Amer	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Louis	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Penn	Ivy	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Creighton	BE	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Cornell	Ivy	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
VMI	SC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Davidson	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
FIU	CUSA	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
George Mason	A10	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia St.	SB	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Green Bay	Horz	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
LSU	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Portland	WCC	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
UC Irvine	BW	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
UCF	Amer	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Utah	P12	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Houston	Amer	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.03	0.03	82.35	82.35	0.02	0.02
Wright St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01