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Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


Wagner

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:216.1
Current RPI:277
Expected SOS:313
Current SOS:302
Current Record:2-4
Expected Record:15-12
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-7
Current OOC Record:2-4
Expected OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC RPI:224
Expected OOC SOS:218



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-585.00.01%
21-6106.80.13%
20-7122.60.70%
19-8136.81.94%
18-9154.65.54%
17-10172.510.84%
16-11191.116.33%
15-12210.219.08%
14-13230.117.93%
13-14248.612.93%
12-15267.27.95%
11-16283.74.25%
10-17298.31.51%
9-18311.70.59%
8-19321.20.20%
7-20329.40.05%
6-21319.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wagner.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Connecticut (139.2)AmerA58-67W100%0.0
11-14UMass Lowell (265.7)AEA87-76L0%0.0
11-19Fairfield (144.8)MAACH64-70L0%0.0
11-22American (290.4)PatA65-73W100%0.0
11-26Rider (205.6)MAACH67-70L0%0.0
11-30Massachusetts (108.8)A10A62-55L0%0.0
12-6Monmouth (68.0)MAACH0-033%-5.4
12-10Morgan St. (329.9)MEACA0-069%5.9
12-17Providence (74.5)BEA0-011%-15.0
12-29Central Connecticut (313.7)NECH0-082%11.0
12-31Mount St. Mary's (177.3)NECA0-039%-3.3
1-5Fairleigh Dickinson (253.1)NECH0-071%6.6
1-7Sacred Heart (320.3)NECH0-084%12.2
1-12Bryant (215.8)NECA0-047%-0.9
1-14Robert Morris (241.7)NECH0-068%5.7
1-19LIU Brooklyn (230.7)NECA0-049%-0.4
1-21Sacred Heart (320.3)NECA0-069%5.9
1-26St. Francis PA (277.5)NECH0-075%8.2
1-28St. Francis NY (327.4)NECH0-086%12.9
2-2Central Connecticut (313.7)NECA0-065%4.7
2-4Fairleigh Dickinson (253.1)NECA0-051%0.4
2-9St. Francis PA (277.5)NECA0-057%2.0
2-11Robert Morris (241.7)NECA0-048%-0.6
2-16Mount St. Mary's (177.3)NECH0-060%2.9
2-18St. Francis NY (327.4)NECA0-071%6.7
2-23Bryant (215.8)NECH0-067%5.4
2-25LIU Brooklyn (230.7)NECH0-069%5.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wagner's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Wagner's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Wagner.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
WagnerNEC28.6426.4041.1856.84-5.053.61
Sacred HeartNEC0.604.7737.5034.45-0.15-1.48
LIU BrooklynNEC0.464.7371.4356.860.200.65
St. Francis NYNEC0.004.7314.2927.11-0.00-2.17
Central ConnecticutNEC0.004.7333.3333.40-0.00-1.57
St. Francis PANEC0.604.7233.3340.39-0.20-0.91
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.004.7111.1148.02-0.00-0.19
Robert MorrisNEC0.004.7122.2241.70-0.00-0.78
BryantNEC0.004.7025.0048.18-0.00-0.17
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.004.6916.6739.84-0.00-0.95
UMass LowellAE8.932.0712.5036.37-6.70-0.56
FairfieldMAAC9.032.0366.6758.453.010.34
RiderMAAC8.932.0140.0047.10-1.79-0.12
MonmouthMAAC0.001.9875.0070.730.000.82
ProvidenceBE0.001.9475.0055.490.000.21
MassachusettsA108.801.9466.6757.222.930.28
AmericanPat8.331.9216.6732.47-5.56-0.67
ConnecticutAmer8.331.8540.0041.02-1.67-0.33
Morgan St.MEAC0.001.8514.2938.53-0.00-0.42
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.3157.1450.420.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.2825.0034.40-0.00-0.09
HartfordAE0.690.2822.2226.33-0.39-0.13
ArmyPat0.600.2542.8650.09-0.090.00
BrownIvy0.000.2555.5646.970.00-0.02
FordhamA100.690.2550.0041.310.00-0.04
IonaMAAC0.000.2557.1464.030.000.07
LehighPat0.000.2542.8666.67-0.000.08
Loyola MDPat0.600.2542.8645.94-0.09-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.000.2537.5044.39-0.00-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.000.2525.0035.09-0.00-0.07
DuquesneA100.000.2244.4442.03-0.00-0.03
MaineAE0.000.2214.2924.15-0.00-0.11
BucknellPat0.000.2266.6766.340.000.07
MaristMAAC0.460.2144.4434.65-0.05-0.07
BinghamtonAE0.000.1950.0043.560.00-0.02
Seton HallBE0.000.1971.4354.560.000.02
Boston UniversityPat0.690.1942.8654.90-0.100.02
LafayettePat0.000.1933.3333.36-0.00-0.06
YaleIvy0.000.1942.8663.41-0.000.05
New HampshireAE0.000.1957.1458.840.000.03
Holy CrossPat0.600.1837.5047.37-0.15-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.1828.5736.95-0.00-0.05
SienaMAAC0.600.1837.5052.01-0.150.01
RutgersB100.000.1685.7145.370.00-0.02
TowsonCAA0.000.1642.8653.19-0.000.01
PennIvy0.000.1633.3356.57-0.000.02
DartmouthIvy0.600.160.0020.55-0.60-0.09
VirginiaACC0.000.1587.5078.510.000.09
CincinnatiAmer0.000.1387.5082.360.000.08
Ohio St.B100.000.1387.5068.610.000.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.130.0018.64-0.00-0.08
Stony BrookAE0.000.1328.5738.15-0.00-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.130.0017.13-0.00-0.08
MarquetteBE0.000.1375.0066.410.000.04
St. BonaventureA100.000.1371.4370.390.000.05
NavyPat0.000.1325.0037.38-0.00-0.03
MemphisAmer0.000.1275.0055.500.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.1275.0051.040.000.00
AlbanyAE0.000.1242.8661.11-0.000.03
HamptonMEAC0.690.1214.2942.67-0.50-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.1257.1429.790.00-0.05
MinnesotaB100.000.1287.5068.020.000.04
St. John'sBE0.000.1237.5037.03-0.00-0.03
UMBCAE0.000.1280.0054.540.000.01
DePaulBE0.000.1266.6735.430.00-0.03
George MasonA100.000.1262.5046.900.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.600.1066.6766.180.200.03
NJITASun0.460.1050.0049.780.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.000.1085.7178.280.000.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0957.1471.520.000.04
South FloridaAmer0.690.0957.1433.230.10-0.03
TempleAmer0.600.0975.0064.920.300.03
UCFAmer0.600.0985.7176.240.430.05
NortheasternCAA0.690.0950.0044.400.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.090.0035.95-0.00-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.090.0020.75-0.00-0.05
GeorgetownBE0.000.0955.5647.890.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.000.09100.0084.840.000.06
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0942.8638.17-0.00-0.02
HarvardIvy0.600.0920.0046.79-0.36-0.01
VermontAE0.000.0962.5071.320.000.04
Rhode IslandA100.000.0962.5069.130.000.03
RichmondA100.000.0950.0048.210.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0712.5037.99-0.00-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.070.0022.58-0.00-0.04
LipscombASun0.000.0712.5033.04-0.00-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.000.0720.0021.80-0.00-0.04
HowardMEAC0.600.0616.6744.34-0.40-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.690.0633.3346.38-0.23-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.060.0034.47-0.00-0.02
ColgatePat0.000.0612.5029.71-0.00-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0677.7849.900.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.000.0666.6766.860.000.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0027.12-0.00-0.03
SyracuseACC0.000.0671.4366.700.000.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0671.4355.160.000.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.06100.0091.920.000.05
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0625.0043.41-0.00-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0616.6729.81-0.00-0.02
NorthwesternB100.000.0675.0066.170.000.02
Notre DameACC0.000.06100.0077.380.000.03
OhioMAC0.000.0683.3371.480.000.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0622.2221.23-0.00-0.04
CornellIvy0.000.0628.5729.95-0.00-0.02
ArizonaP120.000.0675.0068.370.000.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.0685.7166.190.000.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0633.3352.21-0.000.00
ButlerBE0.000.06100.0074.440.000.03
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0076.630.000.03
DrexelCAA0.000.0650.0040.600.00-0.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0662.5043.220.00-0.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0671.4368.070.000.02
Kansas St.B120.000.0687.5059.310.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0625.0030.23-0.00-0.02
La SalleA100.000.0666.6755.540.000.01
MichiganB100.000.0675.0066.460.000.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0616.6739.20-0.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0685.7177.150.000.03
PacificWCC0.000.0642.8646.14-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0642.8645.30-0.00-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0633.3332.35-0.00-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0657.1449.130.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0662.5067.390.000.02
West VirginiaB120.000.0685.7183.660.000.04
XavierBE0.000.0687.5070.890.000.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0314.2932.19-0.00-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0328.5741.52-0.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0328.5742.90-0.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.000.0342.8639.20-0.00-0.01
High PointBSth0.000.0342.8646.48-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.000.0366.6746.420.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.600.0371.4368.980.260.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0385.7157.450.000.00
MarylandB100.600.0387.5059.330.450.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0312.5034.79-0.00-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.690.0371.4354.310.300.00
OregonP120.690.0375.0072.250.350.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0312.5023.93-0.00-0.02
TulsaAmer0.000.0350.0038.050.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.600.030.0016.68-0.60-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.460.0371.4370.210.200.01
IndianaB100.460.0387.5074.490.350.02
LibertyBSth0.460.0333.3348.07-0.15-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.460.030.0025.23-0.46-0.02
DavidsonA100.000.0371.4363.170.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0371.4373.490.000.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0355.5641.690.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0350.0060.620.000.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0325.0031.41-0.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.600.0375.0048.500.30-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.0387.5081.960.000.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.0325.0063.27-0.000.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0328.5723.78-0.00-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.03100.0078.850.000.02
VCUA100.000.0375.0073.060.000.01