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Through games of Nov 27, 2014.


Wagner

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:239.4
Current RPI:220
Expected SOS:285
Current SOS:51
Current Record:0-3
Expected Record:13-15
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-8
Current OOC Record:0-3
Expected OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC RPI:230
Expected OOC SOS:123



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-785.00.01%
20-8101.30.07%
19-9118.60.37%
18-10133.21.19%
17-11151.02.96%
16-12169.56.19%
15-13190.09.85%
14-14210.614.17%
13-15232.416.84%
12-16254.116.27%
11-17274.213.42%
10-18291.49.16%
9-19307.15.34%
8-20319.62.80%
7-21329.31.05%
6-22337.00.26%
5-23342.50.02%
4-24345.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wagner.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Maryland (45.5)B10A82-48L0%0.0
11-18Columbia (107.0)IvyA70-56L0%0.0
11-23Hofstra (97.2)CAAA93-71L0%0.0
11-29Penn (317.0)IvyH0-073%7.2
12-2Maine (326.8)AEA0-063%4.1
12-6Lafayette (131.2)PatA0-020%-10.2
12-14Vermont (122.5)AEA0-016%-12.2
12-20Monmouth (182.1)MAACH0-044%-1.8
12-23Cincinnati (67.9)AmerA0-09%-15.9
12-29Rider (226.0)MAACH0-057%2.2
1-3St. Francis PA (246.2)NECA0-039%-3.4
1-5Mount St. Mary's (281.4)NECH0-072%6.9
1-8Robert Morris (232.1)NECH0-060%3.0
1-10LIU Brooklyn (272.9)NECH0-064%4.4
1-15Bryant (214.0)NECA0-036%-4.5
1-17Fairleigh Dickinson (287.5)NECA0-048%-0.6
1-22St. Francis PA (246.2)NECH0-062%3.8
1-24Central Connecticut (321.9)NECA0-053%0.9
1-29Sacred Heart (308.1)NECH0-075%8.1
1-31Central Connecticut (321.9)NECH0-075%8.1
2-5Sacred Heart (308.1)NECA0-053%0.9
2-7St. Francis NY (227.4)NECH0-053%0.9
2-12St. Francis NY (227.4)NECA0-030%-6.2
2-14Fairleigh Dickinson (287.5)NECH0-071%6.5
2-19Bryant (214.0)NECH0-059%2.7
2-21LIU Brooklyn (272.9)NECA0-041%-2.8
2-26Robert Morris (232.1)NECA0-037%-4.1
2-28Mount St. Mary's (281.4)NECA0-049%-0.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wagner's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Wagner's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Wagner.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
WagnerNEC30.4226.410.0047.44-30.42-1.35
Central ConnecticutNEC1.674.670.0030.36-1.67-1.84
St. Francis NYNEC0.004.610.0052.31-0.000.21
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC2.084.6133.3338.50-0.69-1.06
LIU BrooklynNEC0.004.610.0044.39-0.00-0.52
Robert MorrisNEC0.004.5933.3347.55-0.00-0.22
Sacred HeartNEC0.004.5925.0033.61-0.00-1.50
BryantNEC0.004.5833.3345.89-0.00-0.38
St. Francis PANEC0.004.5725.0045.42-0.00-0.42
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.004.5525.0035.88-0.00-1.28
MonmouthMAAC0.002.0350.0052.430.000.10
ColumbiaIvy16.672.0066.6764.295.560.57
LafayettePat0.002.0060.0060.690.000.43
PennIvy0.001.940.0023.38-0.00-1.03
HofstraCAA16.671.9450.0067.790.000.69
RiderMAAC0.001.9340.0043.49-0.00-0.25
MaineAE0.001.910.0019.25-0.00-1.18
VermontAE0.001.9150.0064.170.000.54
MarylandB1016.671.87100.0070.3616.670.76
CincinnatiAmer0.001.85100.0061.010.000.41
New HampshireAE0.000.3733.3346.25-0.00-0.03
NJITind0.000.3420.0030.12-0.00-0.13
RutgersB100.000.3450.0024.450.00-0.17
YaleIvy0.000.3180.0070.930.000.13
Stony BrookAE3.750.3160.0068.620.750.12
BrownIvy0.000.3116.6730.56-0.00-0.12
HartfordAE0.000.2780.0051.710.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.2620.0037.69-0.00-0.06
DartmouthIvy0.000.250.0036.65-0.00-0.07
LehighPat2.080.2520.0041.82-1.25-0.04
HarvardIvy0.000.2266.6773.130.000.10
AmericanPat0.000.2266.6759.540.000.04
BinghamtonAE0.000.220.0023.09-0.00-0.12
ArmyPat0.000.22100.0069.590.000.09
ConnecticutAmer0.000.2175.0069.780.000.08
TowsonCAA0.000.2180.0057.880.000.03
AlbanyAE0.000.1950.0063.340.000.05
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1950.0036.580.00-0.05
UMass LowellAE0.000.1860.0041.750.00-0.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.1820.0040.88-0.00-0.03
UMBCAE0.000.180.0027.48-0.00-0.08
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.1850.0056.120.000.02
DelawareCAA0.000.180.0019.53-0.00-0.11
FairfieldMAAC0.000.1840.0032.81-0.00-0.06
NavyPat0.000.1620.0030.56-0.00-0.06
BucknellPat0.000.1633.3335.76-0.00-0.05
Loyola MDPat0.000.1640.0031.76-0.00-0.06
ColgatePat0.000.1620.0039.05-0.00-0.03
TempleAmer0.000.1560.0050.480.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.1525.0047.85-0.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.1550.0052.810.000.01
MaristMAAC0.000.1520.0034.06-0.00-0.05
NiagaraMAAC0.000.1533.3330.24-0.00-0.06
SienaMAAC0.000.1533.3361.73-0.000.04
CornellIvy0.000.1342.8641.73-0.00-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.1314.2930.86-0.00-0.05
Notre DameACC0.000.1383.3369.110.000.05
St. John'sBE0.000.13100.0056.410.000.02
DuquesneA100.000.12100.0053.990.000.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.12100.0064.010.000.03
La SalleA100.000.12100.0056.910.000.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.1280.0063.370.000.03
IonaMAAC0.000.1280.0079.440.000.07
ManhattanMAAC0.000.1225.0049.08-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.000.1225.0035.86-0.00-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.000.1280.0046.880.00-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0925.0039.20-0.00-0.02
Seton HallBE0.000.09100.0063.120.000.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0980.0074.350.000.04
Ohio St.B100.000.09100.0074.590.000.04
SMUAmer0.000.0950.0065.590.000.03
NebraskaB100.000.0975.0052.330.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0920.0031.24-0.00-0.03
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0625.0053.47-0.000.00
TexasB120.000.06100.0079.050.000.04
KansasB120.000.0675.0062.620.000.02
AkronMAC0.000.0660.0066.680.000.02
ArizonaP120.000.06100.0076.220.000.03
DenverSum0.000.0650.0060.380.000.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0633.3337.71-0.00-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.060.0039.39-0.00-0.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0620.0029.36-0.00-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0680.0074.880.000.03
PittsburghACC0.000.0660.0057.910.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0666.6751.440.000.00
West VirginiaB120.000.06100.0068.860.000.02
BradleyMVC0.000.0650.0031.400.00-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0675.0064.570.000.02
CampbellBSth0.000.060.0035.96-0.00-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0640.0054.85-0.000.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0660.0050.620.000.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0666.6760.700.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0625.0043.61-0.00-0.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0633.3360.46-0.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0680.0074.090.000.03
ToledoMAC0.000.0640.0060.45-0.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0666.6739.850.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.0666.6741.780.00-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0650.0040.660.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.060.0067.79-0.000.02
North Carolina St.ACC1.670.06100.0064.841.670.02
South FloridaAmer1.670.0675.0055.470.830.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0640.0053.54-0.000.00
DrexelCAA0.000.0620.0036.57-0.00-0.02
ElonCAA0.000.0640.0039.26-0.00-0.01
FordhamA101.670.060.0026.23-1.67-0.03
IndianaB100.000.0680.0056.380.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0680.0067.100.000.02
Penn St.B100.000.0683.3348.340.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0666.6747.100.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0675.0055.000.000.01
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0089.470.000.03
Saint LouisA100.000.0375.0046.860.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0333.3364.43-0.000.01
USCP120.000.0350.0029.750.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.03100.0053.730.000.00
VillanovaBE0.000.03100.0075.980.000.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0340.0038.03-0.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.000.0380.0071.410.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0055.370.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0316.6739.60-0.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0350.0047.680.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0375.0056.110.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.030.0035.88-0.00-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0366.6750.170.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0333.3358.80-0.000.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0383.3384.390.000.02
TulsaAmer0.000.0360.0055.660.000.00
VCUA100.000.0380.0073.390.000.01
XavierBE0.000.03100.0078.730.000.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0350.0028.400.00-0.01
Arizona St.P121.670.0360.0053.400.330.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0028.02-0.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.03100.0067.700.000.01
IowaB100.000.0366.6765.220.000.01
Iowa St.B121.670.0375.0061.130.830.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0320.0043.38-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun1.670.030.0025.17-1.67-0.01
MichiganB100.000.0375.0066.060.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0350.0055.020.000.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0383.3338.760.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0316.6726.26-0.00-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.03100.0060.400.000.01
PurdueB100.000.0383.3368.400.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0375.0057.260.000.00
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0073.330.000.01
VMISC0.000.0325.0035.97-0.00-0.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0333.3353.65-0.000.00
WisconsinB100.000.03100.0087.590.000.02