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Through games of Dec 19, 2014.


Wagner

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:274.6
Current RPI:296
Expected SOS:218
Current SOS:168
Current Record:1-6
Expected Record:9-19
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-8
Current OOC Record:1-6
Expected OOC Record:2-8
Expected OOC RPI:269
Expected OOC SOS:63



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-11112.70.03%
16-12142.70.09%
15-13158.10.61%
14-14180.01.69%
13-15201.74.31%
12-16224.98.72%
11-17247.313.69%
10-18268.517.23%
9-19286.519.06%
8-20301.715.84%
7-21313.310.69%
6-22322.45.39%
5-23330.21.93%
4-24335.80.60%
3-25338.50.10%
2-26346.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wagner.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Maryland (49.5)B10A82-48L0%0.0
11-18Columbia (99.3)IvyA70-56L0%0.0
11-23Hofstra (64.4)CAAA93-71L0%0.0
11-29Penn (268.0)IvyH64-61W100%0.0
12-2Maine (322.8)AEA82-81L0%0.0
12-6Lafayette (88.3)PatA97-84L0%0.0
12-14Vermont (177.7)AEA61-47L0%0.0
12-20Monmouth (176.5)MAACH0-038%-3.6
12-23Cincinnati (50.9)AmerA0-05%-18.8
12-29Rider (186.5)MAACH0-045%-1.5
1-3St. Francis PA (142.7)NECA0-014%-12.4
1-5Mount St. Mary's (255.8)NECH0-067%5.0
1-8Robert Morris (270.7)NECH0-063%3.8
1-10LIU Brooklyn (235.1)NECH0-053%1.0
1-15Bryant (200.3)NECA0-022%-8.9
1-17Fairleigh Dickinson (254.3)NECA0-032%-5.6
1-22St. Francis PA (142.7)NECH0-038%-3.7
1-24Central Connecticut (310.8)NECA0-042%-2.3
1-29Sacred Heart (155.1)NECH0-042%-2.2
1-31Central Connecticut (310.8)NECH0-071%6.5
2-5Sacred Heart (155.1)NECA0-017%-11.0
2-7St. Francis NY (267.7)NECH0-056%1.7
2-12St. Francis NY (267.7)NECA0-027%-7.0
2-14Fairleigh Dickinson (254.3)NECH0-061%3.2
2-19Bryant (200.3)NECH0-049%-0.2
2-21LIU Brooklyn (235.1)NECA0-025%-7.8
2-26Robert Morris (270.7)NECA0-034%-4.9
2-28Mount St. Mary's (255.8)NECA0-038%-3.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wagner's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Wagner's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Wagner.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
WagnerNEC27.8526.4014.2933.49-19.90-8.72
Central ConnecticutNEC0.324.6722.2229.60-0.18-1.90
St. Francis NYNEC0.004.6122.2239.33-0.00-0.98
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.894.6128.5740.51-0.38-0.87
LIU BrooklynNEC0.404.6033.3343.41-0.13-0.61
Robert MorrisNEC0.454.5830.0038.71-0.18-1.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.454.5850.0057.550.000.69
BryantNEC0.404.5828.5745.72-0.17-0.39
St. Francis PANEC0.004.5750.0061.210.001.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.004.5537.5037.60-0.00-1.13
MonmouthMAAC0.322.0244.4456.41-0.040.26
ColumbiaIvy7.142.0057.1463.421.020.54
LafayettePat7.592.0071.4369.113.250.76
PennIvy7.591.9442.8634.23-1.08-0.61
HofstraCAA7.141.9475.0078.153.571.09
RiderMAAC0.451.9350.0053.060.000.12
MaineAE7.141.910.0018.46-7.14-1.21
VermontAE7.141.9137.5056.12-1.790.23
MarylandB107.141.8790.0066.295.710.61
CincinnatiAmer0.001.8577.7868.130.000.67
New HampshireAE0.000.3757.1464.570.000.11
NJITind0.400.3436.3641.21-0.11-0.06
RutgersB100.000.3360.0034.920.00-0.10
YaleIvy0.840.3172.7366.650.380.10
Stony BrookAE0.840.3133.3355.14-0.280.03
BrownIvy0.000.3140.0033.52-0.00-0.10
HartfordAE0.400.2750.0050.810.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.450.2533.3340.96-0.15-0.05
DartmouthIvy0.400.2550.0046.960.00-0.02
LehighPat0.450.2537.5047.68-0.11-0.01
HarvardIvy0.400.2285.7172.890.280.10
AmericanPat0.450.2260.0064.750.090.07
BinghamtonAE0.450.220.0011.87-0.45-0.17
ArmyPat0.000.2277.7868.880.000.08
ConnecticutAmer0.000.2150.0057.700.000.03
TowsonCAA0.000.2166.6751.280.000.01
AlbanyAE0.000.1933.3348.78-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.400.1955.5640.440.04-0.04
UMass LowellAE0.000.1855.5654.330.000.02
UMBCAE0.000.1810.0020.97-0.00-0.11
DelawareCAA0.000.180.007.43-0.00-0.15
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.1836.3647.58-0.00-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.400.1844.4449.63-0.04-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.1744.4440.07-0.00-0.03
NavyPat0.450.1620.0021.61-0.27-0.09
BucknellPat0.450.1640.0036.30-0.09-0.04
Loyola MDPat0.450.1633.3327.57-0.15-0.07
ColgatePat0.000.1620.0043.07-0.00-0.02
TempleAmer0.450.1563.6455.560.120.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.400.1554.5559.120.040.03
MaristMAAC0.450.1510.0018.65-0.36-0.09
CanisiusMAAC0.400.1555.5661.600.040.03
SienaMAAC0.400.1533.3348.90-0.13-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.000.1512.5029.32-0.00-0.06
CornellIvy0.000.1355.5648.170.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.1338.4644.31-0.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.1390.9172.430.000.06
St. John'sBE0.000.1388.8964.830.000.04
DuquesneA100.000.1228.5731.22-0.00-0.05
Holy CrossPat0.000.1257.1453.100.000.01
La SalleA100.000.1250.0049.930.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.1266.6759.590.000.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.1270.0060.840.000.03
East CarolinaAmer0.000.1237.5038.43-0.00-0.03
IonaMAAC0.000.1266.6772.800.000.05
ManhattanMAAC0.000.1222.2237.84-0.00-0.03
Seton HallBE0.000.0990.0067.320.000.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.450.0940.0046.66-0.09-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0990.0084.460.000.06
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0918.1831.71-0.00-0.03
Michigan St.B100.000.0972.7373.190.000.04
NebraskaB100.000.0966.6744.280.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0970.0071.300.000.04
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0633.3342.54-0.00-0.01
TexasB120.000.0690.0081.650.000.04
AkronMAC0.000.0660.0056.170.000.01
ArizonaP120.000.06100.0082.300.000.04
DenverSum0.000.0645.4554.26-0.000.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0644.4450.85-0.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0690.0081.790.000.04
PittsburghACC0.000.0666.6752.850.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.0650.0038.520.00-0.01
KansasB120.000.0688.8969.210.000.02
West VirginiaB120.450.0690.0067.450.360.02
BradleyMVC0.000.0633.3332.70-0.00-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0677.7870.500.000.02
CampbellBSth0.000.0625.0044.56-0.00-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0640.0049.77-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.000.0660.0044.120.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0650.0052.110.000.00
LibertyBSth0.000.0625.0035.06-0.00-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0633.3345.26-0.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0670.0072.100.000.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.060.0015.18-0.00-0.04
ToledoMAC0.000.0660.0058.890.000.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0645.4543.81-0.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0650.0045.370.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0625.0036.23-0.00-0.02
ElonCAA0.000.0637.5047.90-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.320.0628.5728.06-0.14-0.03
HoustonAmer0.000.0671.4347.640.00-0.00
IndianaB100.000.0680.0057.340.000.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0655.5660.240.000.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.320.0644.4469.77-0.040.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.400.0681.8264.670.250.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.0666.6757.890.000.01
Penn St.B100.000.0690.9153.570.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.400.0644.4444.86-0.04-0.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0688.8955.090.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.0655.5634.700.00-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0650.0053.800.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0657.1456.650.000.01
KentuckySEC0.450.03100.0095.110.450.03
Saint LouisA100.000.0360.0033.900.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0337.5064.18-0.000.01
USCP120.000.0360.0036.070.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0375.0060.310.000.01
VillanovaBE0.000.03100.0081.870.000.02
Boston CollegeACC0.400.0366.6742.760.13-0.00
ButlerBE0.400.0380.0072.370.240.01
Central MichiganMAC0.400.0385.7170.370.280.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.400.0342.8633.87-0.06-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.400.0380.0070.970.240.01
Appalachian St.SB0.400.0337.5034.46-0.10-0.01
Arizona St.P120.320.0360.0053.630.060.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.400.030.0014.67-0.40-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0333.3339.29-0.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0377.7851.830.000.00
IllinoisB100.000.0372.7365.120.000.01
IowaB100.000.0372.7362.430.000.01
Iowa St.B120.320.0388.8963.400.250.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.400.0316.6744.58-0.26-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.400.0310.0018.22-0.32-0.02
MichiganB100.000.0355.5642.460.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0350.0047.740.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.000.0380.0066.580.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0370.0052.530.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0316.6737.98-0.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0318.1836.00-0.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0360.0040.370.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0330.0031.32-0.00-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0388.8963.880.000.01
PurdueB100.000.0372.7363.770.000.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0370.0073.030.000.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0350.0040.680.00-0.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0360.0056.900.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.320.0360.0064.800.060.01
VCUA100.000.0370.0071.450.000.01
VirginiaACC0.320.03100.0085.760.320.02
VMISC0.320.0333.3338.93-0.11-0.01
WinthropBSth0.320.0325.0044.57-0.16-0.00
WisconsinB100.000.0390.9188.540.000.02
XavierBE0.000.0380.0070.970.000.01