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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Niagara

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:287.0
Current RPI:287
Expected SOS:179
Current SOS:179
Current Record:8-22
Expected Record:8-22
Current Conf Record:7-14
Expected Conf Record:7-14
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-10
Current OOC Record:1-8
Expected OOC Record:1-8
Expected OOC RPI:287
Expected OOC SOS:53



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-22287.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Niagara.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Pittsburgh (76.0)ACCA78-45L0%0.0
11-20Saint Peter's (233.0)MAACA59-61W100%0.0
11-22Hartford (244.0)AEH62-65L0%0.0
11-29St. Bonaventure (121.0)A10N59-74L0%0.0
12-2St. John's (44.0)BEA70-57L0%0.0
12-6Canisius (180.0)MAACH64-77L0%0.0
12-13Davidson (35.0)A10A78-58L0%0.0
12-19Buffalo (28.0)MACA88-62L0%0.0
12-23Arkansas St. (277.0)SBH69-74L0%0.0
12-30Albany (99.0)AEH65-47W100%0.0
1-2Manhattan (168.0)MAACH73-61W100%0.0
1-4Monmouth (176.0)MAACH50-66L0%0.0
1-8Siena (261.0)MAACA79-69L0%0.0
1-10Manhattan (168.0)MAACA84-75L0%0.0
1-13Penn (254.0)IvyH56-67L0%0.0
1-16Iona (51.0)MAACH79-80L0%0.0
1-18Siena (261.0)MAACH70-74L0%0.0
1-23Monmouth (176.0)MAACA69-58L0%0.0
1-25Iona (51.0)MAACA87-64L0%0.0
1-30Marist (317.0)MAACH61-65L0%0.0
2-1Quinnipiac (226.0)MAACH105-100W100%0.0
2-6Marist (317.0)MAACA63-61L0%0.0
2-8Quinnipiac (226.0)MAACA91-69L0%0.0
2-13Saint Peter's (233.0)MAACH65-77L0%0.0
2-15Rider (140.0)MAACH60-69L0%0.0
2-19Fairfield (299.0)MAACA53-55W100%0.0
2-21Rider (140.0)MAACA61-65W100%0.0
2-24Canisius (180.0)MAACA71-82W100%0.0
3-1Fairfield (299.0)MAACH57-56W100%0.0
3-5Siena (261.0)MAACN71-54L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Niagara's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Niagara's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Niagara.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
NiagaraMAAC26.4326.4326.6726.67-12.33-12.33
SienaMAAC6.046.0428.5728.57-2.59-2.59
Saint Peter'sMAAC4.524.5246.8846.88-0.28-0.28
IonaMAAC4.524.5275.0075.002.262.26
ManhattanMAAC4.514.5160.0060.000.900.90
MonmouthMAAC4.474.4751.6151.610.140.14
MaristMAAC4.474.4716.6716.67-2.98-2.98
RiderMAAC4.444.4466.6766.671.481.48
QuinnipiacMAAC4.434.4350.0050.000.000.00
CanisiusMAAC4.434.4353.5753.570.320.32
FairfieldMAAC4.404.4024.1424.14-2.28-2.28
AlbanyAE1.911.9177.4277.421.051.05
St. BonaventureA101.881.8856.6756.670.250.25
HartfordAE1.881.8842.8642.86-0.27-0.27
PennIvy1.821.8229.6329.63-0.74-0.74
BuffaloMAC1.751.7570.9770.970.730.73
PittsburghACC1.751.7554.8454.840.170.17
DavidsonA101.691.6975.8675.860.880.88
Arkansas St.SB1.671.6733.3333.33-0.56-0.56
St. John'sBE1.671.6763.3363.330.440.44
MassachusettsA100.320.3253.1253.120.020.02
VermontAE0.300.3056.6756.670.040.04
CornellIvy0.270.2741.3841.38-0.05-0.05
FordhamA100.260.2630.0030.00-0.11-0.11
BinghamtonAE0.240.2416.6716.67-0.16-0.16
La SalleA100.220.2251.5251.520.010.01
BucknellPat0.210.2156.2556.250.030.03
MaineAE0.190.1910.0010.00-0.15-0.15
Stony BrookAE0.190.1965.6265.620.060.06
Saint Joseph'sA100.190.1941.9441.94-0.03-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.190.1916.1316.13-0.13-0.13
George MasonA100.180.1826.6726.67-0.09-0.09
YaleIvy0.170.1766.6766.670.060.06
New HampshireAE0.160.1658.6258.620.030.03
LehighPat0.160.1651.7251.720.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.160.1651.7251.720.010.01
RutgersB100.150.1531.2531.25-0.06-0.06
Holy CrossPat0.140.1444.8344.83-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.140.1436.6736.67-0.04-0.04
Loyola MDPat0.130.1336.6736.67-0.04-0.04
WagnerNEC0.130.1331.0331.03-0.05-0.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.130.1365.5265.520.040.04
DartmouthIvy0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
VCUA100.110.1174.2974.290.050.05
UMass LowellAE0.110.1139.2939.29-0.02-0.02
UMBCAE0.110.1113.3313.33-0.08-0.08
RichmondA100.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
BrownIvy0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
DaytonA100.110.1175.7675.760.060.06
DukeACC0.110.1187.8887.880.080.08
ProvidenceBE0.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
NortheasternCAA0.110.1167.6567.650.040.04
Boston UniversityPat0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.100.1022.5822.58-0.06-0.06
Seton HallBE0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
WoffordSC0.100.1081.2581.250.060.06
UT ArlingtonSB0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
VillanovaBE0.080.0894.1294.120.070.07
George WashingtonA100.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
RadfordBSth0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
NJITind0.080.0856.0056.000.010.01
OhioMAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
SyracuseACC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.080.0858.8258.820.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0871.4371.430.030.03
Georgia TechACC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
DrexelCAA0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0644.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
Georgia St.SB0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
HarvardIvy0.060.0674.0774.070.030.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.060.0629.6329.63-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Oregon St.P120.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
UMKCWAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
Rhode IslandA100.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
Saint LouisA100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
VirginiaACC0.050.0590.6290.620.040.04
BelmontOVC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
ButlerBE0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
CreightonBE0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0572.4172.410.020.02
South DakotaSum0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
ArmyPat0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
ElonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Kent St.MAC0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
LouisvilleACC0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
Miami OHMAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
VMISC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
MarylandB100.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
SMUAmer0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
TowsonCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.036.906.90-0.03-0.03
LafayettePat0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0342.3142.31-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
TempleAmer0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0327.2727.27-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
StetsonASun0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
DelawareCAA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0393.9493.940.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
MinnesotaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
BryantNEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
ClemsonACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
ColgatePat0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
IndianaB100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
Miami FLACC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
SamfordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UNLVMWC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.030.0391.1891.180.020.02