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Through games of Nov 27, 2014.


Niagara

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:272.3
Current RPI:206
Expected SOS:168
Current SOS:189
Current Record:1-2
Expected Record:9-20
Current Conf Record:1-0
Expected Conf Record:7-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-6
Current OOC Record:0-2
Expected OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC RPI:312
Expected OOC SOS:144



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-12125.70.03%
16-13137.90.11%
15-14159.90.33%
14-15179.71.17%
13-16196.02.72%
12-17218.05.94%
11-18237.311.16%
10-19255.215.26%
9-20272.918.04%
8-21288.617.45%
7-22301.313.36%
6-23313.38.37%
5-24322.24.08%
4-25331.51.54%
3-26337.60.35%
2-27339.00.08%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Niagara.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Pittsburgh (75.5)ACCA78-45L0%0.0
11-20Saint Peter's (241.5)MAACA59-61W100%0.0
11-22Hartford (205.9)AEH62-65L0%0.0
11-29St. Bonaventure (146.3)A10N0-020%-10.1
12-2St. John's (84.3)BEA0-05%-19.6
12-6Canisius (151.4)MAACH0-036%-4.3
12-13Davidson (66.9)A10A0-05%-19.9
12-19Buffalo (66.7)MACA0-09%-16.2
12-23Arkansas St. (276.2)SBH0-057%2.0
12-30Albany (138.0)AEH0-031%-6.0
1-2Manhattan (202.9)MAACH0-039%-3.3
1-4Monmouth (182.1)MAACH0-037%-3.9
1-8Siena (132.3)MAACA0-012%-13.9
1-10Manhattan (202.9)MAACA0-019%-10.5
1-13Penn (317.0)IvyH0-066%5.0
1-16Iona (45.9)MAACH0-012%-14.2
1-18Siena (132.3)MAACH0-029%-6.7
1-23Monmouth (182.1)MAACA0-018%-11.1
1-25Iona (45.9)MAACA0-04%-21.4
1-30Marist (274.5)MAACH0-056%1.7
2-1Quinnipiac (167.7)MAACH0-036%-4.4
2-6Marist (274.5)MAACA0-032%-5.5
2-8Quinnipiac (167.7)MAACA0-017%-11.6
2-13Saint Peter's (241.5)MAACH0-046%-1.1
2-15Rider (226.0)MAACH0-050%0.0
2-19Fairfield (256.7)MAACA0-037%-4.0
2-21Rider (226.0)MAACA0-028%-7.2
2-24Canisius (151.4)MAACA0-017%-11.4
3-1Fairfield (256.7)MAACH0-060%3.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Niagara's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Niagara's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Niagara.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
NiagaraMAAC30.0026.4341.1828.76-5.29-11.23
RiderMAAC0.004.5540.0042.16-0.00-0.71
QuinnipiacMAAC1.674.5550.0054.810.000.44
SienaMAAC0.004.5533.3360.42-0.000.95
CanisiusMAAC0.004.5550.0051.280.000.12
MonmouthMAAC0.004.5350.0051.160.000.10
MaristMAAC0.004.5320.0032.48-0.00-1.59
Saint Peter'sMAAC18.334.5325.0041.89-9.17-0.73
FairfieldMAAC0.004.5240.0031.48-0.00-1.68
ManhattanMAAC0.004.5225.0047.47-0.00-0.23
IonaMAAC0.004.5080.0078.560.002.57
AlbanyAE0.001.9650.0063.130.000.52
HartfordAE18.331.9675.0049.939.17-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.001.9375.0051.080.000.04
PennIvy0.001.900.0023.15-0.00-1.02
BuffaloMAC0.001.8175.0063.660.000.50
PittsburghACC16.671.8150.0056.500.000.24
DavidsonA100.001.7566.6762.870.000.45
Arkansas St.SB0.001.720.0035.78-0.00-0.49
St. John'sBE0.001.72100.0055.040.000.17
MassachusettsA100.000.3283.3366.830.000.11
VermontAE0.000.3050.0064.890.000.09
BinghamtonAE0.000.270.0023.09-0.00-0.15
CornellIvy0.000.2742.8641.73-0.00-0.04
FordhamA100.000.260.0026.23-0.00-0.13
La SalleA101.670.21100.0056.911.670.03
George MasonA100.000.2120.0022.17-0.00-0.11
BucknellPat0.000.2033.3335.76-0.00-0.06
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.200.0030.72-0.00-0.08
YaleIvy0.000.1880.0070.930.000.08
MaineAE0.000.180.0019.84-0.00-0.11
Stony BrookAE0.000.1860.0068.620.000.07
PrincetonIvy0.000.1820.0037.69-0.00-0.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1850.0036.580.00-0.05
LehighPat0.000.1820.0041.82-0.00-0.03
RutgersB101.670.1750.0024.450.00-0.09
DuquesneA100.000.15100.0053.990.000.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.15100.0064.010.000.04
WagnerNEC0.000.150.0044.93-0.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.1480.0072.320.000.06
DartmouthIvy1.670.120.0036.65-1.67-0.03
New HampshireAE0.000.1233.3346.25-0.00-0.01
RichmondA100.000.1250.0063.970.000.03
UMass LowellAE0.000.1260.0041.750.00-0.02
UMBCAE0.000.120.0027.48-0.00-0.05
BrownIvy1.670.1216.6730.56-1.11-0.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.1216.6739.60-0.00-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.000.1225.0053.47-0.000.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.1240.0031.76-0.00-0.04
NortheasternCAA0.000.1280.0067.100.000.04
Seton HallBE0.000.12100.0063.120.000.03
Florida St.ACC0.000.1240.0038.97-0.00-0.03
DukeACC0.000.12100.0083.320.000.08
WoffordSC0.000.1180.0077.100.000.06
Boston CollegeACC0.000.1140.0038.03-0.00-0.03
George WashingtonA100.000.0975.0069.240.000.04
VCUA100.000.0980.0073.390.000.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0960.0053.140.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0975.0071.300.000.04
VillanovaBE0.000.09100.0075.980.000.05
NJITind0.000.0920.0030.12-0.00-0.04
ProvidenceBE0.000.09100.0065.930.000.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0933.3338.66-0.00-0.02
OhioMAC0.000.0966.6752.280.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0925.0039.20-0.00-0.02
SyracuseACC0.000.0980.0067.950.000.03
HawaiiBW1.670.0971.4356.020.710.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0820.0036.57-0.00-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.0866.6751.440.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0650.0028.400.00-0.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0666.6751.540.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0675.0065.610.000.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0650.0051.380.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0660.0068.290.000.02
HarvardIvy0.000.0666.6773.130.000.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0625.0052.42-0.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0625.0043.61-0.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0040.20-0.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0666.6748.060.00-0.00
TroySB0.000.060.0044.27-0.00-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0666.6756.430.000.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0675.0046.860.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0640.0060.45-0.000.01
ButlerBE0.000.0680.0071.410.000.03
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0061.500.000.01
DePaulBE0.000.0666.6725.500.00-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.000.0680.0063.370.000.02
KansasB120.000.0675.0062.620.000.02
MarquetteBE0.000.0660.0039.990.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0680.0074.350.000.03
Oregon St.P120.000.0650.0042.750.00-0.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0625.0046.52-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.000.0620.0042.43-0.00-0.01
XavierBE0.000.06100.0078.730.000.03
North CarolinaACC0.000.0680.0074.090.000.03
Notre DameACC0.000.0683.3369.110.000.02
VirginiaACC0.000.06100.0073.330.000.03
AkronMAC0.000.0660.0066.680.000.02
ArmyPat0.000.06100.0069.590.000.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0680.0075.550.000.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.06100.0059.990.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0055.370.000.01
ElonCAA0.000.0640.0039.26-0.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.060.0023.13-0.00-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.000.0675.0066.230.000.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.0640.0026.71-0.00-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0065.020.000.02
South DakotaSum0.000.060.0038.79-0.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.060.0025.08-0.00-0.03
VMISC0.000.0625.0035.97-0.00-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0650.0048.100.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.06100.0079.690.000.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0620.0031.24-0.00-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0625.0049.53-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0660.0040.420.00-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.06100.0078.390.000.03
MarylandB100.000.06100.0071.310.000.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.0675.0039.180.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0650.0065.590.000.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.060.0052.73-0.000.00
TowsonCAA0.000.0680.0057.880.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.06100.0068.860.000.02
CampbellBSth0.000.030.0035.96-0.00-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.030.0022.17-0.00-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0360.0067.380.000.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0340.0053.54-0.000.00
FIUCUSA0.000.0333.3337.71-0.00-0.01
LafayettePat0.000.0360.0061.400.000.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0325.0036.27-0.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0350.0045.460.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.03100.0045.140.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.000.0333.3351.33-0.000.00
NavyPat0.000.0320.0030.56-0.00-0.01
PurdueB100.000.0383.3368.400.000.01
Sacred HeartNEC1.670.0325.0033.76-0.83-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.030.0029.60-0.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.000.0360.0050.480.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0366.6741.200.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0375.0068.660.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.0366.6741.780.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0366.6747.100.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.03100.0053.730.000.00
ColgatePat0.000.0320.0039.05-0.00-0.01
DelawareCAA0.000.030.0019.53-0.00-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0320.0043.38-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.030.0044.60-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0340.0054.55-0.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0314.2930.86-0.00-0.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0350.0055.020.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0071.260.000.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0325.0045.71-0.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0366.6739.850.00-0.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0375.0051.700.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.0333.3346.51-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0052.530.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0340.0046.34-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0089.470.000.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0350.0047.680.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0333.3347.83-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0333.3354.85-0.000.00
WisconsinB100.000.03100.0087.590.000.02
BryantNEC0.000.0333.3346.36-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.000.0360.0050.620.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0375.0044.850.00-0.00
IndianaB100.000.0380.0056.380.000.00
Kansas St.B121.670.0350.0046.120.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.000.03100.0078.880.000.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.03100.0064.840.000.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0316.6726.26-0.00-0.01
SamfordSC1.670.0333.3335.99-0.56-0.01
San Diego St.MWC1.670.0383.3384.391.110.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0360.0035.980.00-0.01