Niagara

Conference:	MAAC
Expected RPI:	208.7
Current RPI:	199
Expected SOS:	167
Current SOS:	123
Current Record:	9-15
Expected Record:	13-18
Current Conf Record:	4-8
Expected Conf Record:	8-10
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.87%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	11-3
Current OOC Record:	5-7
Expected OOC Record:	5-8
Expected OOC RPI:	182
Expected OOC SOS:	144

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
16-15	163.2	1.01%
15-16	177.1	7.76%
14-17	192.8	22.70%
13-18	207.5	31.63%
12-19	221.5	24.55%
11-20	236.5	10.19%
10-21	251.1	1.99%
9-22	265.2	0.16%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Niagara.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-14	Central Connecticut (236.3)	NEC	H	102-93	W	100%	0.0
11-17	Missouri (11.7)	B12	A	83-52	L	0%	0.0
11-21	South Dakota St. (55.2)	Sum	N	79-71	L	0%	0.0
11-22	Mercer (98.0)	ASun	A	74-55	L	0%	0.0
11-23	Sam Houston St. (286.0)	Slnd	N	59-52	W	100%	0.0
11-28	St. Francis PA (303.9)	NEC	A	63-65	W	100%	0.0
12-2	Fairfield (138.4)	MAAC	H	75-79	L	0%	0.0
12-4	Iona (46.0)	MAAC	H	62-98	L	0%	0.0
12-7	Buffalo (70.7)	MAC	H	74-82	L	0%	0.0
12-10	Hartford (328.5)	AE	A	76-79	W	100%	0.0
12-13	Drexel (79.2)	CAA	H	58-71	L	0%	0.0
12-22	Quinnipiac (175.1)	NEC	A	85-81	L	0%	0.0
12-28	MD Baltimore County (332.6)	AE	H	92-75	W	100%	0.0
12-30	St. Bonaventure (93.8)	A10	H	70-72	L	0%	0.0
1-2	Loyola MD (83.9)	MAAC	A	61-66	W	100%	0.0
1-6	Iona (46.0)	MAAC	A	73-61	L	0%	0.0
1-8	Siena (226.0)	MAAC	A	72-60	L	0%	0.0
1-13	St. Peter's (280.4)	MAAC	H	85-73	W	100%	0.0
1-15	Marist (276.6)	MAAC	H	86-67	W	100%	0.0
1-19	Canisius (322.0)	MAAC	A	56-75	W	100%	0.0
1-22	Manhattan (115.3)	MAAC	A	71-64	L	0%	0.0
1-27	Loyola MD (83.9)	MAAC	H	57-69	L	0%	0.0
1-29	Manhattan (115.3)	MAAC	H	70-87	L	0%	0.0
2-3	Fairfield (138.4)	MAAC	A	77-69	L	0%	0.0
2-5	Rider (213.8)	MAAC	A	0-0		38%	-3.3
2-9	Siena (226.0)	MAAC	H	0-0		64%	4.0
2-11	Rider (213.8)	MAAC	H	0-0		62%	3.5
2-15	Canisius (322.0)	MAAC	H	0-0		86%	11.9
2-18	Vermont (173.1)	AE	A	0-0		23%	-8.1
2-24	St. Peter's (280.4)	MAAC	A	0-0		56%	1.6
2-26	Marist (276.6)	MAAC	A	0-0		58%	2.2

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Niagara's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Niagara's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Niagara.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Niagara	MAAC	26.47	26.34	37.50	42.00	-6.62	-4.21
Canisius	MAAC	3.01	4.18	18.18	20.76	-1.91	-2.44
Rider	MAAC	0.85	4.16	37.50	37.74	-0.21	-1.02
St. Peter's	MAAC	2.73	4.16	22.73	24.76	-1.49	-2.10
Loyola MD	MAAC	4.81	4.15	80.00	75.19	2.88	2.09
Siena	MAAC	2.81	4.15	42.86	43.89	-0.40	-0.51
Iona	MAAC	4.80	4.12	77.27	78.68	2.62	2.37
Manhattan	MAAC	4.76	4.10	65.22	66.94	1.45	1.39
Fairfield	MAAC	4.75	4.09	50.00	50.92	0.00	0.08
Marist	MAAC	2.75	4.09	36.36	34.35	-0.75	-1.28
Vermont	AE	0.36	1.92	60.00	62.00	0.07	0.46
MD Baltimore County	AE	2.27	1.91	14.29	16.94	-1.62	-1.26
Hartford	AE	2.27	1.89	18.18	21.71	-1.44	-1.07
St. Bonaventure	A10	2.37	1.84	57.89	57.55	0.37	0.28
Quinnipiac	NEC	2.27	1.84	54.55	55.62	0.21	0.21
St. Francis PA	NEC	2.27	1.78	22.73	23.57	-1.24	-0.94
Central Connecticut	NEC	2.22	1.78	47.62	47.39	-0.11	-0.09
Buffalo	MAC	2.23	1.78	66.67	65.16	0.74	0.54
Drexel	CAA	2.22	1.75	78.26	77.35	1.26	0.96
South Dakota St.	Sum	2.18	1.70	72.73	74.61	0.99	0.84
Mercer	ASun	2.23	1.70	69.57	70.66	0.87	0.70
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	2.17	1.67	27.78	30.93	-0.97	-0.64
Missouri	B12	2.13	1.64	90.91	86.75	1.74	1.21
Binghamton	AE	0.36	0.38	0.00	4.02	-0.36	-0.35
New Hampshire	AE	0.37	0.33	35.00	38.58	-0.11	-0.08
Robert Morris	NEC	0.14	0.27	68.00	70.03	0.05	0.11
Albany	AE	0.23	0.27	60.00	60.42	0.05	0.06
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.33	0.25	26.09	28.60	-0.16	-0.11
Boston University	AE	0.14	0.25	48.00	51.88	-0.01	0.01
Long Island	NEC	0.27	0.25	70.83	71.05	0.11	0.10
Maine	AE	0.14	0.22	50.00	49.73	0.00	-0.00
Stony Brook	AE	0.09	0.22	66.67	68.05	0.03	0.08
Hofstra	CAA	0.21	0.22	32.00	35.39	-0.08	-0.06
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.28	0.20	44.00	45.89	-0.03	-0.02
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.23	0.19	8.70	12.13	-0.19	-0.15
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.18	0.19	54.55	56.84	0.02	0.03
Bryant	NEC	0.23	0.17	8.33	10.86	-0.19	-0.13
South Dakota	Sum	0.14	0.17	26.32	28.83	-0.06	-0.07
Fordham	A10	0.18	0.17	40.91	34.50	-0.03	-0.05
Princeton	Ivy	0.15	0.16	47.37	52.87	-0.01	0.01
Monmouth	NEC	0.18	0.16	28.00	28.91	-0.08	-0.07
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.16	40.00	40.18	-0.01	-0.03
Towson	CAA	0.22	0.16	4.00	5.26	-0.20	-0.14
Massachusetts	A10	0.14	0.14	73.91	68.58	0.07	0.05
Bucknell	Pat	0.19	0.14	73.91	75.00	0.09	0.07
La Salle	A10	0.09	0.14	70.83	68.82	0.04	0.05
Minnesota	B10	0.19	0.14	69.57	61.31	0.07	0.03
Navy	Pat	0.18	0.14	9.52	13.19	-0.15	-0.10
Old Dominion	CAA	0.14	0.13	60.00	58.29	0.03	0.02
William & Mary	CAA	0.18	0.13	12.50	13.44	-0.13	-0.10
Dayton	A10	0.20	0.11	60.87	60.96	0.04	0.03
Kent St.	MAC	0.10	0.11	71.43	69.05	0.04	0.04
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.10	0.11	76.19	75.94	0.05	0.06
Wagner	NEC	0.14	0.11	82.61	84.57	0.09	0.08
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.14	0.11	56.52	55.95	0.02	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.13	0.11	40.91	42.96	-0.02	-0.02
Colgate	Pat	0.14	0.11	30.43	29.50	-0.05	-0.05
Kentucky	SEC	0.14	0.11	95.83	92.57	0.13	0.09
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.09	0.11	34.78	35.20	-0.03	-0.03
Yale	Ivy	0.14	0.11	72.22	63.19	0.06	0.03
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.13	0.11	62.50	62.49	0.03	0.03
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.18	0.11	50.00	48.90	0.00	-0.00
Lehigh	Pat	0.14	0.11	73.91	74.91	0.06	0.05
Brown	Ivy	0.18	0.11	27.27	23.80	-0.08	-0.06
Columbia	Ivy	0.13	0.11	55.00	54.80	0.01	0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.11	0.09	81.82	80.43	0.07	0.05
Army	Pat	0.09	0.08	40.91	41.72	-0.02	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.15	0.08	34.78	32.08	-0.04	-0.03
American	Pat	0.14	0.08	65.22	63.79	0.04	0.02
Holy Cross	Pat	0.14	0.08	40.91	42.05	-0.03	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.14	0.08	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.09	0.08	39.13	42.12	-0.02	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.15	0.08	60.87	61.37	0.03	0.02
Texas A&M	B12	0.10	0.08	52.38	46.15	0.00	-0.01
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.08	54.55	48.60	0.00	-0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.09	0.08	65.22	63.74	0.03	0.02
Pittsburgh	BE	0.05	0.08	60.87	58.16	0.01	0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.09	0.08	8.70	11.67	-0.07	-0.06
Northeastern	CAA	0.09	0.08	47.83	48.56	-0.00	-0.00
George Mason	CAA	0.13	0.08	76.00	72.50	0.07	0.04
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.04	0.08	39.13	36.10	-0.01	-0.02
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.06	68.18	67.91	0.02	0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.06	47.62	48.82	-0.00	-0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.06	30.00	34.15	-0.02	-0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.06	81.82	77.20	0.03	0.03
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.05	0.06	47.06	50.75	-0.00	0.00
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.05	0.06	18.18	21.13	-0.03	-0.03
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.11	0.06	57.14	60.75	0.02	0.01
Texas St.	Slnd	0.05	0.06	22.22	27.62	-0.03	-0.03
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.06	38.10	40.81	-0.01	-0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.11	0.06	36.84	41.45	-0.03	-0.01
Temple	A10	0.05	0.06	77.27	75.06	0.03	0.03
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.10	0.06	50.00	51.53	0.00	0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.06	59.09	56.35	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.06	20.83	20.60	-0.03	-0.03
Samford	SC	0.10	0.06	33.33	35.26	-0.03	-0.02
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.05	0.06	55.00	54.48	0.00	0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.10	0.06	65.22	62.65	0.03	0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.09	0.06	30.43	31.43	-0.04	-0.02
Connecticut	BE	0.09	0.06	68.18	63.99	0.03	0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.09	0.06	42.11	49.81	-0.01	-0.00
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.05	0.06	36.36	39.72	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.09	0.06	56.52	54.22	0.01	0.00
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.09	0.06	35.00	35.31	-0.03	-0.02
IUPUI	Sum	0.05	0.06	34.78	35.50	-0.01	-0.02
Longwood	ind	0.05	0.06	30.00	27.84	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.06	19.05	21.29	-0.03	-0.03
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.05	0.06	82.61	81.44	0.03	0.03
North Dakota	GWC	0.09	0.06	33.33	41.31	-0.03	-0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.06	61.90	63.52	0.01	0.02
Oakland	Sum	0.09	0.06	48.00	50.21	-0.00	0.00
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.09	0.06	80.77	80.75	0.06	0.03
Providence	BE	0.09	0.06	56.52	50.27	0.01	0.00
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.06	8.70	13.10	-0.04	-0.04
Southern Utah	Sum	0.09	0.06	45.45	44.30	-0.01	-0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.09	0.06	47.83	43.66	-0.00	-0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.05	0.06	52.63	48.41	0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.00	0.06	56.52	57.72	0.00	0.01
Illinois	B10	0.10	0.05	72.73	64.43	0.04	0.02
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.05	77.27	77.67	0.03	0.03
Georgia	SEC	0.09	0.05	45.45	41.20	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.09	0.05	80.00	78.06	0.05	0.03
Belmont	ASun	0.04	0.05	69.57	73.28	0.02	0.03
Delaware	CAA	0.09	0.05	47.83	50.65	-0.00	0.00
Denver	SB	0.09	0.05	70.83	72.23	0.04	0.02
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.04	0.05	52.38	52.86	0.00	0.00
Georgia St.	CAA	0.09	0.05	66.67	69.69	0.03	0.02
Jacksonville	ASun	0.04	0.05	17.39	22.00	-0.03	-0.03
Lipscomb	ASun	0.04	0.05	43.48	43.82	-0.01	-0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.09	0.05	59.09	59.72	0.02	0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.09	0.05	59.09	50.82	0.02	0.00
Nevada	WAC	0.00	0.05	80.95	76.42	0.00	0.03
North Florida	ASun	0.04	0.05	45.83	46.68	-0.00	-0.00
Purdue	B10	0.09	0.05	65.22	60.58	0.03	0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.09	0.05	54.55	56.09	0.01	0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.09	0.05	31.82	31.31	-0.03	-0.02
Utah St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	50.00	52.93	0.00	0.00
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.05	90.91	83.85	0.04	0.04
Colorado St.	MWC	0.08	0.05	66.67	60.80	0.03	0.01
Florida	SEC	0.00	0.05	82.61	77.63	0.00	0.03
Fresno St.	WAC	0.08	0.05	39.13	44.52	-0.02	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.00	0.05	18.18	22.22	-0.00	-0.03
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	73.91	68.43	0.02	0.02
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.05	78.26	78.39	0.03	0.03
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.05	72.73	68.28	0.02	0.02
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.08	0.05	33.33	38.38	-0.03	-0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	45.45	40.70	-0.00	-0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.08	0.05	95.83	92.01	0.08	0.04
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.05	31.82	25.98	-0.02	-0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.05	59.09	54.70	0.01	0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.03	55.00	57.41	0.01	0.00
Brigham Young	WCC	0.05	0.03	75.00	76.00	0.03	0.02
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.00	0.03	27.78	29.87	-0.00	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.00	0.03	28.57	34.20	-0.00	-0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.03	40.91	38.38	-0.01	-0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.00	0.03	61.90	67.23	0.00	0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	41.18	42.61	-0.01	-0.00
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	25.00	23.75	-0.03	-0.02
North Texas	SB	0.05	0.03	50.00	50.01	0.00	0.00
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.05	0.03	13.64	16.14	-0.04	-0.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.03	5.26	7.30	-0.05	-0.03
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.05	0.03	27.78	29.58	-0.02	-0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.05	0.03	37.50	38.33	-0.01	-0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.00	0.03	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.03	76.19	72.91	0.02	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.03	70.83	64.42	0.02	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.03	61.90	55.14	0.01	0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.03	56.52	55.20	0.01	0.00
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.03	65.22	63.74	0.02	0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.05	0.03	71.43	66.60	0.02	0.01
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.03	75.00	75.78	0.02	0.01
Lafayette	Pat	0.05	0.03	43.48	42.95	-0.01	-0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	25.00	37.58	-0.02	-0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.03	52.38	46.68	0.00	-0.00
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.03	41.67	38.67	-0.01	-0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.05	0.03	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.00
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.03	43.48	40.28	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.05	0.03	45.00	44.15	-0.00	-0.00
Washington	P12	0.05	0.03	69.57	66.54	0.02	0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.04	0.03	24.00	24.86	-0.02	-0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.04	0.03	27.27	35.02	-0.02	-0.01
Furman	SC	0.04	0.03	47.62	48.83	-0.00	-0.00
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.04	0.03	68.18	69.68	0.02	0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.04	0.03	60.87	59.05	0.01	0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.04	0.03	81.82	76.80	0.03	0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.04	0.03	34.78	34.61	-0.01	-0.01
California	P12	0.05	0.03	75.00	74.61	0.02	0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.00	0.03	14.29	17.17	-0.00	-0.02
Harvard	Ivy	0.00	0.03	90.48	87.91	0.00	0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	47.62	47.18	-0.00	-0.00
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.03	45.45	46.08	-0.00	-0.00