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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Niagara

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:302.0
Current RPI:302
Expected SOS:172
Current SOS:172
Current Record:7-26
Expected Record:7-26
Current Conf Record:4-18
Expected Conf Record:4-18
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-11
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-8
Current OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:266
Expected OOC SOS:167



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
7-26302.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Niagara.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Seton Hall (128.0)BEA83-72L0%0.0
11-13Buffalo (106.0)MACH92-81W100%0.0
11-21USC Upstate (163.0)ASunN83-74L0%0.0
11-22Western Carolina (221.0)SCN90-98L0%0.0
11-23Kent St. (213.0)MACA102-97L0%0.0
11-26Penn (284.0)IvyA85-66L0%0.0
11-30Northwestern St. (158.0)SlndA107-100L0%0.0
12-2Arkansas St. (180.0)SBA86-61L0%0.0
12-6Siena (193.0)MAACH71-84L0%0.0
12-8Saint Peter's (231.0)MAACH61-56W100%0.0
12-11Davidson (126.0)SCN83-72W100%0.0
12-21St. Bonaventure (89.0)A10H72-74L0%0.0
12-29Brown (229.0)IvyH68-65W100%0.0
1-2Rider (198.0)MAACA85-83L0%0.0
1-4Iona (59.0)MAACA118-92L0%0.0
1-10Monmouth (292.0)MAACH74-85L0%0.0
1-12Rider (198.0)MAACH78-90L0%0.0
1-16Fairfield (289.0)MAACA63-67W100%0.0
1-18Quinnipiac (105.0)MAACA85-71L0%0.0
1-22Canisius (96.0)MAACA87-74L0%0.0
1-24Marist (250.0)MAACH80-74W100%0.0
1-30Siena (193.0)MAACA66-62L0%0.0
2-1Marist (250.0)MAACA78-64L0%0.0
2-7Iona (59.0)MAACH89-90L0%0.0
2-9Manhattan (60.0)MAACH77-78L0%0.0
2-14Canisius (96.0)MAACH65-71L0%0.0
2-16Manhattan (60.0)MAACA90-72L0%0.0
2-20Fairfield (289.0)MAACH66-72L0%0.0
2-22Quinnipiac (105.0)MAACH88-90L0%0.0
2-28Monmouth (292.0)MAACA75-50L0%0.0
3-2Saint Peter's (231.0)MAACA71-67L0%0.0
3-6Marist (250.0)MAACN76-78W100%0.0
3-8Quinnipiac (105.0)MAACN89-80L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Niagara's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Niagara's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Niagara.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
NiagaraMAAC26.4826.4819.4619.46-16.17-16.17
QuinnipiacMAAC5.505.5060.7160.711.181.18
MaristMAAC5.485.4839.2939.29-1.17-1.17
ManhattanMAAC4.194.1976.6776.672.232.23
IonaMAAC4.164.1666.6766.671.391.39
CanisiusMAAC4.144.1463.3363.331.101.10
Saint Peter'sMAAC4.134.1344.8344.83-0.43-0.43
RiderMAAC4.114.1141.3841.38-0.71-0.71
MonmouthMAAC4.094.0930.0030.00-1.64-1.64
SienaMAAC4.064.0643.3343.33-0.54-0.54
FairfieldMAAC4.044.0420.0020.00-2.42-2.42
PennIvy1.741.7425.9325.93-0.84-0.84
Kent St.MAC1.691.6946.6746.67-0.11-0.11
St. BonaventureA101.681.6851.6151.610.050.05
BuffaloMAC1.681.6866.6766.670.560.56
Seton HallBE1.641.6448.4848.48-0.05-0.05
Western CarolinaSC1.611.6150.0050.000.000.00
BrownIvy1.571.5753.8553.850.120.12
DavidsonSC1.561.5663.3363.330.420.42
USC UpstateASun1.561.5653.3353.330.100.10
Arkansas St.SB1.521.5255.1755.170.160.16
Northwestern St.Slnd1.521.5246.1546.15-0.12-0.12
La SalleA100.270.2748.3948.39-0.01-0.01
ElonSC0.240.2455.1755.170.030.03
CornellIvy0.230.233.703.70-0.21-0.21
ProvidenceBE0.220.2267.6567.650.080.08
AlbanyAE0.200.2056.2556.250.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.200.2072.7372.730.090.09
HartfordAE0.170.1751.5251.520.010.01
FordhamA100.170.1732.2632.26-0.06-0.06
ColumbiaIvy0.160.1660.0060.000.030.03
BinghamtonAE0.150.1523.3323.33-0.08-0.08
WagnerNEC0.150.1560.0060.000.030.03
BucknellPat0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
WoffordSC0.150.1558.6258.620.030.03
PurdueB100.140.1446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.140.1487.5087.500.110.11
HofstraCAA0.140.1430.3030.30-0.06-0.06
PrincetonIvy0.130.1370.3770.370.050.05
LamarSlnd0.130.1310.7110.71-0.10-0.10
Miami OHMAC0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
Boston UniversityPat0.120.1270.5970.590.050.05
College of CharlestonCAA0.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
LehighPat0.120.1243.7543.75-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
DartmouthIvy0.110.1138.4638.46-0.03-0.03
HarvardIvy0.110.1186.2186.210.080.08
YaleIvy0.110.1151.8551.850.000.00
AkronMAC0.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
George MasonA100.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
SamfordSC0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
The CitadelSC0.100.1013.7913.79-0.07-0.07
UNC GreensboroSC0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
MercerASun0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
Holy CrossPat0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
RichmondA100.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
St. John'sBE0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.080.0893.1093.100.070.07
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.0824.0024.00-0.04-0.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0834.6234.62-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.080.0810.7110.71-0.06-0.06
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.080.0816.1316.13-0.05-0.05
Penn St.B100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SC0.070.0719.2319.23-0.05-0.05
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
FurmanSC0.070.0725.9325.93-0.04-0.04
Georgia SouthernSC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0713.7913.79-0.05-0.05
Loyola MarymountWCC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.070.0717.8617.86-0.05-0.05
MarylandACC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
StetsonASun0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Stony BrookAE0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0741.1841.18-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Virginia TechACC0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
DaytonA100.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
George WashingtonA100.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
South DakotaSum0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
RutgersAmer0.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
ButlerBE0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0646.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSlnd0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
TempleAmer0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
TroySB0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckySB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
LafayettePat0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
NJITind0.050.0536.0036.00-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
East Tennessee St.ASun0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0578.5778.570.030.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
DuquesneA100.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
KansasB120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
LouisvilleAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
Loyola MDPat0.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
NevadaMWC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.050.0534.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Notre DameACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
CreightonBE0.040.0478.7978.790.030.03
DePaulBE0.040.0436.3636.36-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.040.0454.8454.840.000.00
MarquetteBE0.040.0453.1253.120.000.00
XavierBE0.040.0462.5062.500.010.01
AmericanPat0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
BryantNEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
LSUSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
ColoradoP120.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
ClemsonACC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
DukeACC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
LibertyBSth0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
OregonP120.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.020.0282.3582.350.020.02
Wichita St.MVC0.020.02100.00100.000.020.02
WinthropBSth0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.020.0271.8871.880.010.01