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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Niagara

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:315.0
Current RPI:315
Expected SOS:223
Current SOS:223
Current Record:7-25
Expected Record:7-25
Current Conf Record:5-16
Expected Conf Record:5-16
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-12
Current OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC RPI:319
Expected OOC SOS:239



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
7-25315.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Niagara.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Old Dominion (140.0)CUSAA67-50L0%0.0
11-15Saint Joseph's (22.0)A10A73-62L0%0.0
11-18Brown (312.0)IvyH75-66W100%0.0
11-21Vermont (126.0)AEN67-85L0%0.0
11-22North Carolina A&T (340.0)MEACN72-73W100%0.0
11-24Hartford (292.0)AEA77-73L0%0.0
11-28Youngstown St. (275.0)HorzH70-88L0%0.0
12-4Quinnipiac (297.0)MAACH76-72W100%0.0
12-6Monmouth (52.0)MAACH42-56L0%0.0
12-9St. John's (246.0)BEA48-44L0%0.0
12-12LIU Brooklyn (254.0)NECH79-80L0%0.0
12-23Albany (107.0)AEA65-56L0%0.0
12-30St. Bonaventure (30.0)A10A82-68L0%0.0
1-2Siena (104.0)MAACA75-63L0%0.0
1-4Iona (77.0)MAACA65-52L0%0.0
1-7Saint Peter's (208.0)MAACH63-61W100%0.0
1-9Manhattan (229.0)MAACH55-53W100%0.0
1-15Fairfield (142.0)MAACA73-68L0%0.0
1-17Manhattan (229.0)MAACA69-64L0%0.0
1-22Canisius (220.0)MAACH61-70L0%0.0
1-26Siena (104.0)MAACH70-82L0%0.0
1-28Marist (318.0)MAACA66-69W100%0.0
1-30Quinnipiac (297.0)MAACA82-68L0%0.0
2-5Rider (242.0)MAACH60-66L0%0.0
2-7Iona (77.0)MAACH61-75L0%0.0
2-12Saint Peter's (208.0)MAACA72-59L0%0.0
2-14Rider (242.0)MAACA77-59L0%0.0
2-18Marist (318.0)MAACH76-72W100%0.0
2-20Fairfield (142.0)MAACH59-71L0%0.0
2-25Canisius (220.0)MAACA65-60L0%0.0
2-28Monmouth (52.0)MAACA77-68L0%0.0
3-3Canisius (220.0)MAACN102-97L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Niagara's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Niagara's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Niagara.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
NiagaraMAAC26.3826.3819.5719.57-16.06-16.06
CanisiusMAAC5.655.6536.6736.67-1.51-1.51
SienaMAAC4.244.2461.2961.290.960.96
IonaMAAC4.224.2266.6766.671.411.41
MonmouthMAAC4.214.2178.1278.122.372.37
RiderMAAC4.184.1835.4835.48-1.21-1.21
MaristMAAC4.184.1825.0025.00-2.09-2.09
QuinnipiacMAAC4.174.1728.5728.57-1.79-1.79
FairfieldMAAC4.164.1656.6756.670.550.55
ManhattanMAAC4.164.1641.3841.38-0.72-0.72
Saint Peter'sMAAC4.154.1546.4346.43-0.30-0.30
VermontAE1.841.8459.3859.380.340.34
HartfordAE1.841.8425.8125.81-0.89-0.89
AlbanyAE1.831.8373.3373.330.860.86
St. BonaventureA101.751.7572.4172.410.780.78
BrownIvy1.671.6726.9226.92-0.77-0.77
Saint Joseph'sA101.641.6478.7978.790.940.94
Old DominionCUSA1.591.5961.7661.760.370.37
LIU BrooklynNEC1.561.5650.0050.000.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC1.561.5633.3333.33-0.52-0.52
St. John'sBE1.561.5620.0020.00-0.94-0.94
Youngstown St.Horz1.561.5627.5927.59-0.70-0.70
DartmouthIvy0.300.3033.3333.33-0.10-0.10
CornellIvy0.300.3033.3333.33-0.10-0.10
MaineAE0.280.2826.6726.67-0.13-0.13
WagnerNEC0.240.2467.7467.740.090.09
St. Francis NYNEC0.230.2345.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.220.2253.1253.120.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.200.2040.0040.00-0.04-0.04
New HampshireAE0.200.2058.6258.620.030.03
Stony BrookAE0.190.1980.0080.000.120.12
BuffaloMAC0.190.1957.5857.580.030.03
Holy CrossPat0.180.1842.4242.42-0.03-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.180.1877.7877.780.100.10
ColumbiaIvy0.180.1865.5265.520.060.06
YaleIvy0.180.1877.7877.780.100.10
Kent St.MAC0.170.1758.0658.060.030.03
FordhamA100.170.1755.1755.170.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.170.1726.6726.67-0.08-0.08
UMass LowellAE0.170.1735.7135.71-0.05-0.05
UMBCAE0.170.1721.8821.88-0.10-0.10
ProvidenceBE0.150.1569.7069.700.060.06
Boston UniversityPat0.150.1554.8454.840.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.150.1530.0030.00-0.06-0.06
BucknellPat0.150.1555.1755.170.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.150.1526.6726.67-0.07-0.07
HofstraCAA0.140.1471.8871.880.060.06
DaytonA100.140.1478.1278.120.080.08
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.130.1334.4834.48-0.04-0.04
BryantNEC0.130.1323.3323.33-0.07-0.07
GeorgetownBE0.130.1345.4545.45-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
MassachusettsA100.120.1243.7543.75-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.120.1229.0329.03-0.05-0.05
DrexelCAA0.120.1220.0020.00-0.07-0.07
Central ConnecticutNEC0.100.1013.7913.79-0.08-0.08
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
Seton HallBE0.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
DelawareCAA0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
Oregon St.P120.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.100.1080.0080.000.060.06
Saint LouisA100.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
George MasonA100.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
ArmyPat0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
PurdueB100.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
VCUA100.090.0970.5970.590.040.04
USCP120.090.0963.6463.640.030.03
HarvardIvy0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.080.0837.0437.04-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0831.2531.25-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
St. Francis PANEC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
DuquesneA100.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
Notre DameACC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
FloridaSEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
RichmondA100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
RutgersB100.070.0719.3519.35-0.04-0.04
LehighPat0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0725.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Penn St.B100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Green BayHorz0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
SyracuseACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
ButlerBE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
CreightonBE0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
DePaulBE0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0556.0056.000.010.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0583.8783.870.030.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
AkronMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
North CarolinaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
NorthwesternB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
TulsaAmer0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
FIUCUSA0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
RadfordBSth0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
UCLAP120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.040.0422.5822.58-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.040.0470.0070.000.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.040.0451.5251.520.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.040.0470.9770.970.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.040.0433.3333.33-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.040.0433.3333.33-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
AmericanPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
MichiganB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
ColgatePat0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
KentuckySEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0324.2424.24-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
North FloridaASun0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
TempleAmer0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
UTSACUSA0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01