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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Niagara

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:163.0
Current RPI:163
Expected SOS:230
Current SOS:230
Current Record:19-13
Expected Record:19-13
Current Conf Record:12-7
Expected Conf Record:12-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-3
Current OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:173
Expected OOC SOS:225



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-13163.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Niagara.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10St. Bonaventure (24.0)A10A75-77W100%0.0
11-15Minnesota (171.0)B10A107-81L0%0.0
11-19Massachusetts (240.0)A10A101-76L0%0.0
11-21BYU (67.0)WCCA95-88L0%0.0
11-24Alabama A&M (350.0)SWACH96-74W100%0.0
11-25UT Arlington (108.0)SBH90-95L0%0.0
11-27Army (280.0)PatH77-71W100%0.0
11-29Buffalo (25.0)MACH87-106L0%0.0
12-5New Hampshire (312.0)AEA70-78W100%0.0
12-10St. Francis PA (178.0)NECH87-93L0%0.0
12-16Norfolk St. (266.0)MEACA82-85W100%0.0
12-19Cleveland St. (282.0)HorzH79-77W100%0.0
12-23Cornell (248.0)IvyA86-89W100%0.0
12-29Iona (107.0)MAACH93-98L0%0.0
12-31Rider (69.0)MAACH76-99L0%0.0
1-5Siena (299.0)MAACA76-84W100%0.0
1-7Marist (324.0)MAACA70-86W100%0.0
1-12Monmouth (199.0)MAACH78-77W100%0.0
1-14Saint Peter's (251.0)MAACH73-70W100%0.0
1-18Quinnipiac (277.0)MAACA73-81W100%0.0
1-20Fairfield (180.0)MAACA104-85L0%0.0
1-24Manhattan (228.0)MAACH72-63W100%0.0
1-27Canisius (124.0)MAACA89-105W100%0.0
2-2Saint Peter's (251.0)MAACA58-52L0%0.0
2-4Monmouth (199.0)MAACA91-96W100%0.0
2-8Quinnipiac (277.0)MAACH95-76W100%0.0
2-10Fairfield (180.0)MAACH95-83W100%0.0
2-16Iona (107.0)MAACA84-85W100%0.0
2-18Manhattan (228.0)MAACA82-72L0%0.0
2-21Canisius (124.0)MAACH88-95L0%0.0
2-23Marist (324.0)MAACH100-76W100%0.0
3-3Fairfield (180.0)MAACN77-90L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Niagara's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Niagara's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Niagara.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
NiagaraMAAC26.2826.2859.8859.885.195.19
FairfieldMAAC5.555.5550.0050.000.000.00
IonaMAAC4.034.0361.2961.290.910.91
QuinnipiacMAAC4.034.0338.7138.71-0.91-0.91
MaristMAAC3.983.9820.6920.69-2.33-2.33
Saint Peter'sMAAC3.963.9643.3343.33-0.53-0.53
CanisiusMAAC3.933.9366.6766.671.311.31
MonmouthMAAC3.903.9037.9337.93-0.94-0.94
ManhattanMAAC3.903.9044.8344.83-0.40-0.40
SienaMAAC2.492.4925.8125.81-1.20-1.20
RiderMAAC2.462.4670.0070.000.990.99
St. BonaventureA101.681.6880.6580.651.031.03
MassachusettsA101.681.6837.5037.50-0.42-0.42
ArmyPat1.661.6642.8642.86-0.24-0.24
BuffaloMAC1.641.6475.0075.000.820.82
New HampshireAE1.631.6328.5728.57-0.70-0.70
MinnesotaB101.611.6145.1645.16-0.16-0.16
BYUWCC1.611.6169.7069.700.630.63
Alabama A&MSWAC1.591.5910.0010.00-1.27-1.27
UT ArlingtonSB1.591.5959.3859.380.300.30
Cleveland St.Horz1.561.5633.3333.33-0.52-0.52
CornellIvy1.561.5642.3142.31-0.24-0.24
Norfolk St.MEAC1.561.5644.8344.83-0.16-0.16
St. Francis PANEC1.561.5655.5655.560.170.17
Holy CrossPat0.230.2338.7138.71-0.05-0.05
AlbanyAE0.220.2267.7467.740.080.08
LehighPat0.210.2151.7251.720.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.200.2048.4848.48-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.190.1956.6756.670.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.180.1837.9337.93-0.04-0.04
DartmouthIvy0.180.1823.0823.08-0.10-0.10
YaleIvy0.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.180.1837.9337.93-0.04-0.04
PennIvy0.180.1874.1974.190.090.09
LafayettePat0.180.1830.0030.00-0.07-0.07
HofstraCAA0.180.1860.0060.000.040.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.180.1851.5251.520.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.160.1637.9337.93-0.04-0.04
BrownIvy0.160.1638.4638.46-0.04-0.04
HartfordAE0.150.1558.0658.060.020.02
WagnerNEC0.150.1570.0070.000.060.06
Loyola MDPat0.150.1526.6726.67-0.07-0.07
VermontAE0.150.1578.7978.790.090.09
Seton HallBE0.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
La SalleA100.140.1440.6240.62-0.03-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.140.1478.1278.120.080.08
Wright St.Horz0.140.1471.8871.880.060.06
ColgatePat0.130.1358.0658.060.020.02
ColumbiaIvy0.130.1326.9226.92-0.06-0.06
PrincetonIvy0.130.1342.8642.86-0.02-0.02
BucknellPat0.130.1373.5373.530.060.06
MaineAE0.120.1213.3313.33-0.09-0.09
SyracuseACC0.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
Kent St.MAC0.120.1248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.120.1268.7568.750.040.04
OhioMAC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.120.1282.3582.350.080.08
Youngstown St.Horz0.120.1220.0020.00-0.07-0.07
Northern KentuckyHorz0.120.1268.9768.970.040.04
BinghamtonAE0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
AmericanPat0.110.1120.0020.00-0.07-0.07
Stony BrookAE0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
BryantNEC0.110.119.689.68-0.09-0.09
Sacred HeartNEC0.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
HamptonMEAC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
DuquesneA100.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
George WashingtonA100.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
FordhamA100.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
ElonCAA0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.100.1078.1278.120.050.05
Western CarolinaSC0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
DavidsonA100.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.100.1084.8584.850.070.07
AlabamaSEC0.100.1055.8855.880.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Texas St.SB0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
PacificWCC0.090.0941.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0816.6716.67-0.05-0.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.0712.5012.50-0.06-0.06
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0744.1244.12-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
DrexelCAA0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0780.6580.650.040.04
NJITASun0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.070.0760.7160.710.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.070.0788.2488.240.050.05
OaklandHorz0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
AuburnSEC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
NavyPat0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
DelawareCAA0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
KentuckySEC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.050.0582.7682.760.030.03
Oregon St.P120.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
TulsaAmer0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0593.9493.940.040.04
West VirginiaB120.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
Utah St.MWC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Little RockSB0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
MichiganB100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Penn St.B100.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0515.6215.62-0.03-0.03
UABCUSA0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
IndianaB100.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
IowaB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
VCUA100.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Michigan St.B100.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
ColoradoP120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
DetroitHorz0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Green BayHorz0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
IUPUIHorz0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.03-0.03
PortlandWCC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
FloridaSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
FurmanSC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
TexasB120.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.036.676.67-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0324.2424.24-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
DePaulBE0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
SamfordSC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
DrakeMVC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
Miami FLACC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Ohio St.B100.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.020.0210.7110.71-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
TroySB0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
UtahP120.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.020.0265.5265.520.010.01