Niagara

Conference:	MAAC
Expected RPI:	123.0
Current RPI:	123
Expected SOS:	150
Current SOS:	150
Current Record:	19-13
Expected Record:	19-13
Current Conf Record:	14-6
Expected Conf Record:	14-6
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	7-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-3
Current OOC Record:	5-7
Expected OOC Record:	5-7
Expected OOC RPI:	204
Expected OOC SOS:	110

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
19-13	123.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Niagara.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Oregon St. (181.0)	P12	A	102-83	L	0%
11-13	St. Francis PA (322.0)	NEC	H	86-69	W	100%
11-16	Bucknell (51.0)	Pat	H	71-88	L	0%
11-18	New Mexico St. (55.0)	WAC	H	86-83	W	100%
11-24	St. Bonaventure (139.0)	A10	N	75-80	L	0%
11-28	Iona (98.0)	MAAC	A	83-72	L	0%
12-2	Central Michigan (268.0)	MAC	A	66-64	L	0%
12-5	Loyola MD (99.0)	MAAC	A	61-62	W	100%
12-8	Buffalo (215.0)	MAC	A	77-67	L	0%
12-12	Hartford (187.0)	AE	H	75-59	W	100%
12-16	Vermont (134.0)	AE	H	68-58	W	100%
12-21	Notre Dame (35.0)	BE	A	89-67	L	0%
1-3	Marist (262.0)	MAAC	H	94-72	W	100%
1-5	Fairfield (173.0)	MAAC	H	71-67	W	100%
1-8	Brown (241.0)	Ivy	A	75-74	L	0%
1-11	St. Peter's (290.0)	MAAC	A	58-77	W	100%
1-13	Fairfield (173.0)	MAAC	A	64-67	W	100%
1-17	Siena (295.0)	MAAC	H	87-64	W	100%
1-19	Manhattan (183.0)	MAAC	H	64-60	W	100%
1-25	Siena (295.0)	MAAC	A	69-78	W	100%
1-27	Canisius (112.0)	MAAC	A	65-66	W	100%
1-31	Iona (98.0)	MAAC	H	93-90	W	100%
2-2	Loyola MD (99.0)	MAAC	H	87-89	L	0%
2-7	Rider (145.0)	MAAC	A	72-69	L	0%
2-10	Canisius (112.0)	MAAC	H	70-77	L	0%
2-15	Marist (262.0)	MAAC	A	54-57	W	100%
2-17	Manhattan (183.0)	MAAC	A	56-60	W	100%
2-23	Northwestern St. (78.0)	Slnd	H	92-76	W	100%
2-28	Rider (145.0)	MAAC	H	59-68	L	0%
3-2	St. Peter's (290.0)	MAAC	H	78-61	W	100%
3-9	Siena (295.0)	MAAC	N	74-62	W	100%
3-10	Iona (98.0)	MAAC	N	73-79	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Niagara's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Niagara's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Niagara.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Niagara	MAAC	26.43	26.43	59.59	59.59	5.07	5.07
Iona	MAAC	5.65	5.65	60.00	60.00	1.13	1.13
Siena	MAAC	5.62	5.62	27.59	27.59	-2.52	-2.52
Manhattan	MAAC	4.20	4.20	46.67	46.67	-0.28	-0.28
Fairfield	MAAC	4.16	4.16	59.38	59.38	0.78	0.78
Canisius	MAAC	4.15	4.15	58.62	58.62	0.72	0.72
Marist	MAAC	4.13	4.13	34.48	34.48	-1.28	-1.28
Loyola MD	MAAC	4.08	4.08	66.67	66.67	1.36	1.36
Rider	MAAC	4.05	4.05	53.33	53.33	0.27	0.27
St. Peter's	MAAC	4.05	4.05	32.14	32.14	-1.44	-1.44
St. Bonaventure	A10	1.78	1.78	46.43	46.43	-0.13	-0.13
Buffalo	MAC	1.74	1.74	35.48	35.48	-0.51	-0.51
Vermont	AE	1.74	1.74	67.74	67.74	0.62	0.62
Bucknell	Pat	1.71	1.71	83.87	83.87	1.16	1.16
Hartford	AE	1.66	1.66	58.62	58.62	0.29	0.29
Notre Dame	BE	1.62	1.62	72.73	72.73	0.74	0.74
Central Michigan	MAC	1.61	1.61	31.03	31.03	-0.61	-0.61
New Mexico St.	WAC	1.61	1.61	71.88	71.88	0.70	0.70
St. Francis PA	NEC	1.61	1.61	17.86	17.86	-1.03	-1.03
Oregon St.	P12	1.59	1.59	41.94	41.94	-0.26	-0.26
Brown	Ivy	1.59	1.59	42.31	42.31	-0.24	-0.24
Northwestern St.	Slnd	1.56	1.56	73.08	73.08	0.72	0.72
Albany	AE	0.32	0.32	70.59	70.59	0.13	0.13
Stony Brook	AE	0.30	0.30	76.67	76.67	0.16	0.16
La Salle	A10	0.27	0.27	70.00	70.00	0.11	0.11
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.26	0.26	43.33	43.33	-0.03	-0.03
Maine	AE	0.25	0.25	34.48	34.48	-0.08	-0.08
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.25	0.25	23.33	23.33	-0.13	-0.13
Binghamton	AE	0.23	0.23	6.90	6.90	-0.20	-0.20
Rutgers	BE	0.22	0.22	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Boston University	AE	0.20	0.20	58.62	58.62	0.04	0.04
Fordham	A10	0.19	0.19	22.58	22.58	-0.11	-0.11
Cornell	Ivy	0.19	0.19	40.00	40.00	-0.04	-0.04
Columbia	Ivy	0.18	0.18	38.46	38.46	-0.04	-0.04
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.18	0.18	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.17	0.17	58.06	58.06	0.03	0.03
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.16	0.16	22.58	22.58	-0.09	-0.09
Princeton	Ivy	0.16	0.16	59.26	59.26	0.03	0.03
New Hampshire	AE	0.15	0.15	28.57	28.57	-0.07	-0.07
Kent St.	MAC	0.15	0.15	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Navy	Pat	0.15	0.15	23.33	23.33	-0.08	-0.08
Yale	Ivy	0.13	0.13	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Harvard	Ivy	0.13	0.13	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Rhode Island	A10	0.13	0.13	27.59	27.59	-0.06	-0.06
Long Island	NEC	0.13	0.13	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Colgate	Pat	0.13	0.13	34.38	34.38	-0.04	-0.04
Monmouth	NEC	0.13	0.13	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Army	Pat	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Lehigh	Pat	0.12	0.12	68.97	68.97	0.05	0.05
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.12	0.12	20.00	20.00	-0.07	-0.07
Denver	WAC	0.12	0.12	70.00	70.00	0.05	0.05
Louisville	BE	0.12	0.12	85.29	85.29	0.08	0.08
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.11	0.11	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.11	0.11	29.63	29.63	-0.04	-0.04
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.10	0.10	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Robert Morris	NEC	0.10	0.10	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.10	0.10	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.10	0.10	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Temple	A10	0.10	0.10	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
Ball St.	MAC	0.10	0.10	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Lafayette	Pat	0.10	0.10	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Colorado	P12	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
George Washington	A10	0.10	0.10	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Providence	BE	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.10	0.10	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.10	0.10	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Towson	CAA	0.10	0.10	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Washington	P12	0.10	0.10	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Texas St.	WAC	0.10	0.10	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Drexel	CAA	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
DePaul	BE	0.09	0.09	34.38	34.38	-0.03	-0.03
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.09	0.09	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.09	0.09	85.19	85.19	0.06	0.06
Bryant	NEC	0.08	0.08	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.08	0.08	13.79	13.79	-0.06	-0.06
Toledo	MAC	0.08	0.08	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.08	0.08	80.65	80.65	0.05	0.05
American	Pat	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Dayton	A10	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.08	0.08	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Akron	MAC	0.07	0.07	80.65	80.65	0.05	0.05
Bowling Green	MAC	0.07	0.07	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Holy Cross	Pat	0.07	0.07	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.07	0.07	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Utah	P12	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.07	0.07	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Syracuse	BE	0.07	0.07	74.29	74.29	0.04	0.04
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.07	0.07	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.07	0.07	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Radford	BSth	0.07	0.07	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Washington St.	P12	0.07	0.07	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Purdue	B10	0.07	0.07	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.07	0.07	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Idaho	WAC	0.07	0.07	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.07	0.07	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.07	0.07	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.06	0.06	9.68	9.68	-0.05	-0.05
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.06	0.06	17.86	17.86	-0.04	-0.04
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	28.12	28.12	-0.02	-0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
California	P12	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Delaware	CAA	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Jacksonville	ASun	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Oregon	P12	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Chicago St.	GWC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Evansville	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
New Mexico	MWC	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.03	0.03
San Jose St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Seattle	WAC	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.02	-0.02
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Utah St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.02	0.02
Old Dominion	CAA	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.03	-0.03
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Arkansas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Butler	A10	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
The Citadel	SC	0.03	0.03	21.43	21.43	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Xavier	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Idaho St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Pepperdine	WCC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Wright St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Arizona	P12	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
George Mason	CAA	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Grambling	SWAC	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.02	-0.02
Howard	MEAC	0.02	0.02	20.69	20.69	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas	B12	0.02	0.02	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Missouri	SEC	0.02	0.02	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Montana St.	BSky	0.02	0.02	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.02	0.02	23.08	23.08	-0.01	-0.01
Southern California	P12	0.02	0.02	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.02	0.02	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Tulsa	CUSA	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
UCLA	P12	0.02	0.02	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.02	0.02	71.43	71.43	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.02	0.02	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.02	0.02	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.02	0.02	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.02	0.02	80.65	80.65	0.01	0.01
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.02	0.02	10.00	10.00	-0.02	-0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.02	0.02	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
South Florida	BE	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Villanova	BE	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00