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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Niagara

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:275.0
Current RPI:275
Expected SOS:229
Current SOS:229
Current Record:10-23
Expected Record:10-23
Current Conf Record:7-15
Expected Conf Record:7-15
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-10
Current OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:316
Expected OOC SOS:322



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-23275.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Niagara.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Buffalo (146.0)MACH66-76L0%0.0
11-13Brown (284.0)IvyA88-79L0%0.0
11-15Hartford (327.0)AEA82-78L0%0.0
11-20Rutgers (177.0)B10A78-65L0%0.0
11-23Drexel (308.0)CAAH93-74W100%0.0
11-25North Texas (339.0)CUSAA80-71L0%0.0
12-2Marist (276.0)MAACA72-66L0%0.0
12-4Iona (89.0)MAACA58-74W100%0.0
12-7Kent St. (142.0)MACA100-72L0%0.0
12-10Norfolk St. (254.0)MEACH65-61W100%0.0
12-14Youngstown St. (251.0)HorzA101-97L0%0.0
12-17St. Bonaventure (91.0)A10N79-69L0%0.0
12-21LIU Brooklyn (224.0)NECA66-75W100%0.0
1-2Quinnipiac (272.0)MAACH78-81L0%0.0
1-4Siena (122.0)MAACH71-66W100%0.0
1-8Rider (198.0)MAACA89-78L0%0.0
1-10Manhattan (263.0)MAACA78-69L0%0.0
1-14Monmouth (49.0)MAACH83-90L0%0.0
1-16Marist (276.0)MAACH87-93L0%0.0
1-21Saint Peter's (130.0)MAACA55-57W100%0.0
1-23Canisius (171.0)MAACH91-84W100%0.0
1-26Manhattan (263.0)MAACH69-70L0%0.0
1-28Rider (198.0)MAACH80-67W100%0.0
2-2Fairfield (180.0)MAACA81-61L0%0.0
2-4Quinnipiac (272.0)MAACA89-81L0%0.0
2-10Canisius (171.0)MAACA81-94W100%0.0
2-12Iona (89.0)MAACH76-90L0%0.0
2-16Monmouth (49.0)MAACA93-75L0%0.0
2-18Siena (122.0)MAACA76-70L0%0.0
2-24Saint Peter's (130.0)MAACH53-66L0%0.0
2-26Fairfield (180.0)MAACH58-62L0%0.0
3-2Quinnipiac (272.0)MAACN69-88W100%0.0
3-3Monmouth (49.0)MAACN84-59L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Niagara's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Niagara's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Niagara.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
NiagaraMAAC26.4426.4431.3731.37-9.85-9.85
MonmouthMAAC5.515.5180.0080.003.303.30
QuinnipiacMAAC5.515.5128.5728.57-2.36-2.36
SienaMAAC4.164.1650.0050.000.000.00
CanisiusMAAC4.144.1458.0658.060.670.67
IonaMAAC4.114.1165.6265.621.281.28
RiderMAAC4.114.1154.8454.840.400.40
Saint Peter'sMAAC4.064.0660.0060.000.810.81
MaristMAAC4.044.0420.0020.00-2.42-2.42
ManhattanMAAC4.014.0126.6726.67-1.87-1.87
FairfieldMAAC4.014.0150.0050.000.000.00
DrexelCAA1.781.7826.6726.67-0.83-0.83
HartfordAE1.731.7325.8125.81-0.84-0.84
BuffaloMAC1.651.6548.2848.28-0.06-0.06
BrownIvy1.641.6437.0437.04-0.42-0.42
St. BonaventureA101.631.6361.2961.290.370.37
Kent St.MAC1.591.5960.6160.610.340.34
RutgersB101.591.5941.9441.94-0.26-0.26
North TexasCUSA1.591.5918.5218.52-1.00-1.00
Youngstown St.Horz1.561.5632.2632.26-0.55-0.55
LIU BrooklynNEC1.541.5463.3363.330.410.41
Norfolk St.MEAC1.521.5250.0050.000.000.00
AlbanyAE0.240.2460.6160.610.050.05
St. Francis NYNEC0.220.2210.0010.00-0.17-0.17
WagnerNEC0.210.2151.7251.720.010.01
VermontAE0.210.2184.8584.850.150.15
DartmouthIvy0.200.2025.9325.93-0.10-0.10
MaineAE0.200.2019.3519.35-0.12-0.12
Holy CrossPat0.190.1946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.190.1938.7138.71-0.04-0.04
CornellIvy0.170.1725.0025.00-0.08-0.08
BucknellPat0.170.1776.4776.470.090.09
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.160.1634.4834.48-0.05-0.05
HofstraCAA0.160.1645.1645.16-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.160.1663.3363.330.040.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.150.1540.6240.62-0.03-0.03
ArmyPat0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.140.1431.0331.03-0.05-0.05
AkronMAC0.140.1475.7675.760.070.07
DelawareCAA0.140.1435.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.140.1426.6726.67-0.06-0.06
PennIvy0.130.1346.4346.43-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.130.1338.4638.46-0.03-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.120.1220.6920.69-0.07-0.07
PrincetonIvy0.120.1278.5778.570.070.07
Morgan St.MEAC0.120.1244.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.120.1242.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.120.1272.7372.730.060.06
Bowling GreenMAC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
UMass LowellAE0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Central MichiganMAC0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
MassachusettsA100.120.1245.4545.45-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.110.1182.3582.350.070.07
Stony BrookAE0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
Seton HallBE0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
Miami OHMAC0.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
HamptonMEAC0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
MarylandB100.090.0974.1974.190.050.05
NJITASun0.090.0931.0331.03-0.04-0.04
ToledoMAC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
TowsonCAA0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
DuquesneA100.090.0931.2531.25-0.03-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.090.0975.7675.760.050.05
YaleIvy0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
BryantNEC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0728.1228.12-0.03-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.070.0796.9796.970.070.07
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.070.0728.1228.12-0.03-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0773.3373.330.030.03
Ball St.MAC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0784.3884.380.050.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
LafayettePat0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0746.4346.43-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.070.0767.6567.650.030.03
OaklandHorz0.070.0773.3373.330.030.03
Ohio St.B100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.073.333.33-0.07-0.07
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
MemphisAmer0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0767.7467.740.020.02
SyracuseACC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
George WashingtonA100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0561.5461.540.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
HowardMEAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
La SalleA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
MinnesotaB100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
PurdueB100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
DavidsonA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
DaytonA100.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
DukeACC0.050.0577.1477.140.030.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Green BayHorz0.050.0555.1755.170.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
LipscombASun0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0529.4129.41-0.02-0.02
New HampshireAE0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Notre DameACC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Penn St.B100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UMBCAE0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
WinthropBSth0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
WisconsinB100.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
George MasonA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
PacificWCC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.050.0523.3323.33-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.040.0420.0020.00-0.03-0.03
DrakeMVC0.040.0420.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.040.0476.6776.670.020.02
KansasB120.040.0487.5087.500.030.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.040.0418.5218.52-0.03-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.040.0470.0070.000.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
UABCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
ButlerBE0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
High PointBSth0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.020.0232.0032.00-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
St. John'sBE0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
AmericanPat0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
IllinoisB100.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
IndianaB100.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
Little RockSB0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
MichiganB100.020.0268.5768.570.010.01
NavyPat0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.020.0212.9012.90-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
TexasB120.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00