live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Jan 20, 2017.


Niagara

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:299.7
Current RPI:324
Expected SOS:243
Current SOS:301
Current Record:5-14
Expected Record:9-22
Current Conf Record:2-6
Expected Conf Record:6-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-11
Current OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:324
Expected OOC SOS:339



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-16192.00.01%
14-17217.20.13%
13-18234.80.59%
12-19251.02.70%
11-20267.07.70%
10-21282.615.76%
9-22296.924.06%
8-23309.424.85%
7-24319.016.57%
6-25326.56.60%
5-26332.91.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Niagara.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Buffalo (163.1)MACH66-76L0%0.0
11-13Brown (268.5)IvyA88-79L0%0.0
11-15Hartford (317.9)AEA82-78L0%0.0
11-20Rutgers (172.2)B10A78-65L0%0.0
11-23Drexel (248.9)CAAH93-74W100%0.0
11-25North Texas (315.2)CUSAA80-71L0%0.0
12-2Marist (262.0)MAACA72-66L0%0.0
12-4Iona (95.6)MAACA58-74W100%0.0
12-7Kent St. (219.8)MACA100-72L0%0.0
12-10Norfolk St. (311.5)MEACH65-61W100%0.0
12-14Youngstown St. (258.9)HorzA101-97L0%0.0
12-17St. Bonaventure (93.6)A10N79-69L0%0.0
12-21LIU Brooklyn (221.9)NECA66-75W100%0.0
1-2Quinnipiac (225.5)MAACH78-81L0%0.0
1-4Siena (166.1)MAACH71-66W100%0.0
1-8Rider (190.5)MAACA89-78L0%0.0
1-10Manhattan (240.1)MAACA78-69L0%0.0
1-14Monmouth (58.2)MAACH83-90L0%0.0
1-16Marist (262.0)MAACH87-93L0%0.0
1-21Saint Peter's (147.9)MAACA0-018%-10.2
1-23Canisius (121.1)MAACH0-034%-4.7
1-26Manhattan (240.1)MAACH0-053%1.0
1-28Rider (190.5)MAACH0-047%-0.8
2-2Fairfield (190.8)MAACA0-024%-8.0
2-4Quinnipiac (225.5)MAACA0-032%-5.4
2-10Canisius (121.1)MAACA0-016%-10.9
2-12Iona (95.6)MAACH0-027%-6.9
2-16Monmouth (58.2)MAACA0-09%-15.0
2-18Siena (166.1)MAACA0-020%-9.2
2-24Saint Peter's (147.9)MAACH0-036%-4.0
2-26Fairfield (190.8)MAACH0-043%-1.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Niagara's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Niagara's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Niagara.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
NiagaraMAAC26.5026.3627.7127.89-11.81-11.65
CanisiusMAAC0.834.2660.0060.330.170.88
QuinnipiacMAAC3.254.2638.8938.71-0.72-0.96
RiderMAAC3.174.2355.5651.340.350.11
MaristMAAC5.684.2123.5324.36-3.01-2.16
MonmouthMAAC3.114.2073.6872.991.471.93
SienaMAAC2.914.2042.1145.55-0.46-0.37
IonaMAAC2.974.1863.1664.970.781.25
ManhattanMAAC3.044.1831.5833.76-1.12-1.36
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.474.1755.5655.600.050.47
FairfieldMAAC0.404.1747.0648.66-0.02-0.11
DrexelCAA3.061.8535.2934.91-0.90-0.56
HartfordAE3.071.8326.3226.16-1.45-0.87
BuffaloMAC2.781.7533.3343.00-0.93-0.24
St. BonaventureA102.781.7464.7161.590.820.40
BrownIvy2.841.7243.7540.79-0.35-0.32
RutgersB102.851.7052.9440.930.17-0.31
North TexasCUSA2.841.6920.0026.52-1.71-0.80
Kent St.MAC2.711.6743.7546.31-0.34-0.12
Youngstown St.Horz2.631.6633.3331.22-0.88-0.63
LIU BrooklynNEC2.701.6466.6762.880.900.42
Norfolk St.MEAC2.631.6120.0037.10-1.58-0.42
St. Francis NYNEC0.210.2415.7920.51-0.15-0.14
AlbanyAE0.280.2452.6358.980.010.04
DartmouthIvy0.270.2221.4323.06-0.16-0.12
WagnerNEC0.200.2137.5047.61-0.05-0.01
FordhamA100.280.2138.8935.26-0.06-0.06
VermontAE0.340.2175.0077.360.170.11
BucknellPat0.210.1970.0071.890.090.08
MaineAE0.360.1920.0020.95-0.22-0.11
HofstraCAA0.200.1942.1143.49-0.03-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.140.1941.1846.85-0.02-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.150.1740.0040.81-0.03-0.03
CornellIvy0.130.1620.0024.53-0.08-0.08
OhioMAC0.230.1666.6767.550.080.06
DelawareCAA0.280.1633.3330.90-0.09-0.06
Holy CrossPat0.270.1650.0051.660.000.01
PennIvy0.150.1442.8647.98-0.02-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.1435.2935.14-0.02-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.300.1437.5044.55-0.07-0.02
AkronMAC0.070.1483.3376.940.050.07
Central ConnecticutNEC0.290.1411.1116.28-0.22-0.09
ArmyPat0.140.1338.8942.65-0.03-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.1326.3232.63-0.04-0.05
Boston UniversityPat0.070.1350.0053.030.000.01
NevadaMWC0.210.1384.2178.680.150.08
UMass LowellAE0.270.1340.0040.47-0.05-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.070.1126.6740.16-0.03-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.070.1146.1546.15-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.140.1160.0066.110.030.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.220.1135.0039.76-0.07-0.02
ToledoMAC0.150.1152.9452.870.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.070.1156.2551.810.010.00
ElonCAA0.070.1150.0051.340.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.1137.5034.55-0.00-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.290.1163.1659.530.080.02
NJITASun0.220.1138.8942.49-0.05-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.220.1164.7167.120.060.04
Stony BrookAE0.220.1155.5654.430.020.01
DetroitHorz0.140.1116.6723.07-0.09-0.06
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.1168.4252.190.030.00
TowsonCAA0.070.1152.6354.610.000.01
MarylandB100.000.1188.8973.830.000.05
DuquesneA100.000.1147.3741.47-0.00-0.02
MassachusettsA100.140.1163.1660.390.040.02
Florida St.ACC0.130.1089.4779.540.100.06
Northern KentuckyHorz0.150.0955.5656.000.020.01
YaleIvy0.140.0860.0065.720.030.03
BryantNEC0.150.0821.0533.56-0.08-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.160.0864.7156.100.050.01
Loyola MDPat0.070.0847.0646.22-0.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.150.0888.8986.040.110.06
Wright St.Horz0.150.0861.1156.230.030.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.150.0831.5832.58-0.05-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.080.0014.44-0.07-0.06
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0814.2929.27-0.05-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0847.3734.50-0.00-0.03
LafayettePat0.070.0829.4123.71-0.03-0.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0860.0053.460.020.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0847.0646.29-0.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.140.0866.6758.230.050.01
St. Francis PANEC0.140.0835.2944.13-0.04-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.210.0852.9450.590.010.00
Weber St.BSky0.150.0850.0061.630.000.02
George WashingtonA100.070.0852.6348.070.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0612.5024.37-0.00-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0625.0031.85-0.04-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.160.0617.6529.60-0.11-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0622.2225.60-0.05-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0643.7543.70-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0658.3361.560.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0664.7169.700.000.02
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0661.1162.280.020.01
RiceCUSA0.080.0658.8264.790.010.02
Southern MissCUSA0.080.0625.0022.32-0.04-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.150.0660.0072.810.030.03
PurdueB100.080.0678.9576.890.050.03
FIUCUSA0.070.0611.7621.45-0.05-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0673.6869.690.000.02
Green BayHorz0.140.0652.9450.950.010.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0652.9451.110.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.070.0626.3229.57-0.03-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0626.3228.81-0.03-0.02
OaklandHorz0.000.0672.2274.630.000.03
ValparaisoHorz0.070.0677.7877.270.040.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0553.3356.530.010.01
La SalleA100.070.0568.7564.060.030.02
Michigan St.B100.140.0563.1657.700.040.01
Ohio St.B100.070.0563.1658.020.020.01
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0531.2536.88-0.03-0.01
DaytonA100.070.0576.4776.940.040.03
George MasonA100.150.0564.7156.510.040.01
GonzagaWCC0.070.05100.0097.320.070.05
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.0528.5741.77-0.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0533.3335.90-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.070.0555.0049.300.01-0.00
LipscombASun0.000.0544.4450.48-0.000.00
MinnesotaB100.070.0578.9570.150.040.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0540.0050.05-0.010.00
NorthwesternB100.070.0578.9569.160.040.02
Notre DameACC0.000.0584.2176.540.000.03
Penn St.B100.070.0557.8949.820.01-0.00
Saint LouisA100.070.0527.7824.32-0.03-0.03
WisconsinB100.070.0583.3381.320.050.03
DavidsonA100.070.0552.9453.560.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0517.6524.51-0.04-0.03
BinghamtonAE0.000.0535.2937.32-0.00-0.01
DrakeMVC0.070.0529.4127.72-0.03-0.02
DukeACC0.140.0577.7873.860.080.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0564.7169.850.020.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.140.0561.1163.070.030.01
KansasB120.070.0594.4481.800.060.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0527.7832.97-0.03-0.02
KentuckySEC0.000.0588.8987.510.000.04
MemphisAmer0.070.0573.6867.200.030.02
New HampshireAE0.000.0556.2558.170.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.070.0584.2180.600.050.03
PacificWCC0.070.0536.8435.66-0.02-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0582.3574.990.040.03
South FloridaAmer0.070.0535.2928.97-0.02-0.02
SyracuseACC0.070.0557.8952.520.010.00
TempleAmer0.070.0550.0053.120.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0557.8957.540.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0558.8261.440.000.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.070.0513.3327.07-0.05-0.02
UMBCAE0.070.0562.5058.830.020.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.0561.1169.300.010.02
West VirginiaB120.070.0583.3380.700.040.03
WinthropBSth0.070.0575.0075.420.030.03
ButlerBE0.080.0384.2178.340.060.02
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0344.4443.57-0.01-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.0312.5019.98-0.00-0.02
HowardMEAC0.000.0312.5028.49-0.00-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.0361.1159.670.020.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0312.5033.82-0.00-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0370.5958.250.030.00
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0344.4442.60-0.01-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0388.8986.560.060.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0320.0026.44-0.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0355.5660.070.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.080.0383.3383.150.050.02
ProvidenceBE0.080.0365.0055.280.020.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0362.5063.260.020.01
San DiegoWCC0.080.0350.0043.680.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.080.0352.9455.050.000.00
Texas TechB120.080.0377.7865.330.050.01
UABCUSA0.080.0361.1164.320.020.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0368.7570.270.030.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0318.7524.05-0.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0343.7538.29-0.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0347.3745.06-0.00-0.00
AmericanPat0.070.0327.7830.73-0.03-0.01
CreightonBE0.080.0394.4484.720.070.02
High PointBSth0.070.0337.5042.27-0.02-0.00
PittsburghACC0.080.0363.1651.610.020.00
South AlabamaSB0.070.0343.7541.41-0.01-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0346.6747.54-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.080.0372.2267.680.040.01
DePaulBE0.070.0342.1130.39-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.070.0377.7874.930.040.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.0325.0029.54-0.04-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.0361.1153.360.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.0323.0830.70-0.04-0.01
IndianaB100.070.0368.4264.610.030.01
Little RockSB0.070.0356.2551.110.010.00
Miami FLACC0.070.0370.5960.550.030.01
MichiganB100.000.0363.1658.150.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0311.1122.97-0.06-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.0347.0641.67-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.080.0316.6713.65-0.05-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.070.0322.2221.17-0.04-0.02
RichmondA100.070.0361.1157.870.020.00
South DakotaSum0.080.0355.0054.820.010.00
St. John'sBE0.070.0345.0038.54-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.080.0338.8935.38-0.02-0.01
VCUA100.000.0373.6870.630.000.01
WoffordSC0.080.0331.2540.50-0.03-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0328.5731.47-0.03-0.01
NavyPat0.070.0344.4446.61-0.01-0.00