Army

Conference:	Pat
Expected RPI:	280.0
Current RPI:	280
Expected SOS:	336
Current SOS:	336
Current Record:	12-17
Expected Record:	12-17
Current Conf Record:	6-13
Expected Conf Record:	6-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	10-9
Current OOC Record:	6-4
Expected OOC Record:	6-4
Expected OOC RPI:	172
Expected OOC SOS:	336

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
12-17	280.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Army.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Hofstra (121.0)	CAA	A	77-74	L	0%
11-18	Marist (324.0)	MAAC	A	73-94	W	100%
11-21	Columbia (316.0)	Ivy	H	88-78	W	100%
11-27	Niagara (163.0)	MAAC	A	77-71	L	0%
12-1	UMBC (111.0)	AE	N	81-70	W	100%
12-2	Marist (324.0)	MAAC	N	82-75	W	100%
12-6	Binghamton (320.0)	AE	A	71-66	L	0%
12-8	Wake Forest (160.0)	ACC	A	109-80	L	0%
12-12	St. Francis NY (276.0)	NEC	A	64-76	W	100%
12-17	Air Force (253.0)	MWC	N	79-54	W	100%
12-29	Boston University (212.0)	Pat	A	90-82	L	0%
1-2	Loyola MD (322.0)	Pat	H	86-75	W	100%
1-5	Bucknell (80.0)	Pat	H	66-83	L	0%
1-8	American (336.0)	Pat	A	54-58	W	100%
1-11	Lafayette (311.0)	Pat	H	81-71	W	100%
1-14	Navy (200.0)	Pat	A	62-64	W	100%
1-17	Holy Cross (265.0)	Pat	A	70-66	L	0%
1-20	Lehigh (214.0)	Pat	H	93-81	W	100%
1-24	Colgate (185.0)	Pat	H	78-81	L	0%
1-27	Loyola MD (322.0)	Pat	A	79-68	L	0%
1-31	Bucknell (80.0)	Pat	A	83-71	L	0%
2-3	American (336.0)	Pat	H	82-70	W	100%
2-7	Lafayette (311.0)	Pat	A	81-54	L	0%
2-10	Navy (200.0)	Pat	H	59-68	L	0%
2-14	Holy Cross (265.0)	Pat	H	65-70	L	0%
2-17	Lehigh (214.0)	Pat	A	84-53	L	0%
2-21	Colgate (185.0)	Pat	A	87-83	L	0%
2-24	Boston University (212.0)	Pat	H	59-61	L	0%
2-27	Loyola MD (322.0)	Pat	A	82-79	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Army's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Army's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Army.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Army	Pat	26.50	26.50	44.96	44.96	-2.67	-2.67
Loyola MD	Pat	6.15	6.15	22.22	22.22	-3.42	-3.42
Colgate	Pat	4.72	4.72	55.17	55.17	0.49	0.49
Bucknell	Pat	4.62	4.62	71.88	71.88	2.02	2.02
Navy	Pat	4.53	4.53	62.07	62.07	1.09	1.09
Holy Cross	Pat	4.52	4.52	34.48	34.48	-1.40	-1.40
Lafayette	Pat	4.52	4.52	28.57	28.57	-1.94	-1.94
Boston University	Pat	4.51	4.51	42.86	42.86	-0.64	-0.64
Lehigh	Pat	4.51	4.51	51.85	51.85	0.17	0.17
American	Pat	4.46	4.46	21.43	21.43	-2.55	-2.55
Marist	MAAC	3.62	3.62	20.69	20.69	-2.12	-2.12
Binghamton	AE	1.92	1.92	28.57	28.57	-0.82	-0.82
UMBC	AE	1.84	1.84	70.00	70.00	0.74	0.74
Columbia	Ivy	1.84	1.84	28.00	28.00	-0.81	-0.81
Niagara	MAAC	1.84	1.84	58.06	58.06	0.30	0.30
St. Francis NY	NEC	1.78	1.78	39.29	39.29	-0.38	-0.38
Air Force	MWC	1.72	1.72	35.71	35.71	-0.49	-0.49
Hofstra	CAA	1.72	1.72	58.62	58.62	0.30	0.30
Wake Forest	ACC	1.72	1.72	33.33	33.33	-0.57	-0.57
UMass Lowell	AE	0.34	0.34	37.93	37.93	-0.08	-0.08
Fairfield	MAAC	0.33	0.33	51.52	51.52	0.01	0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.33	0.33	25.00	25.00	-0.17	-0.17
Albany	AE	0.32	0.32	67.74	67.74	0.11	0.11
New Hampshire	AE	0.31	0.31	27.59	27.59	-0.14	-0.14
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.28	0.28	36.36	36.36	-0.08	-0.08
Manhattan	MAAC	0.28	0.28	45.16	45.16	-0.03	-0.03
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.26	0.26	53.33	53.33	0.02	0.02
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.25	0.25	43.75	43.75	-0.03	-0.03
Monmouth	MAAC	0.25	0.25	35.48	35.48	-0.07	-0.07
Cornell	Ivy	0.24	0.24	40.74	40.74	-0.04	-0.04
Stony Brook	AE	0.23	0.23	38.71	38.71	-0.05	-0.05
Maine	AE	0.21	0.21	13.33	13.33	-0.15	-0.15
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.20	0.20	57.14	57.14	0.03	0.03
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.20	0.20	30.00	30.00	-0.08	-0.08
Drexel	CAA	0.20	0.20	37.50	37.50	-0.05	-0.05
Canisius	MAAC	0.19	0.19	65.62	65.62	0.06	0.06
Vermont	AE	0.19	0.19	78.79	78.79	0.11	0.11
Princeton	Ivy	0.18	0.18	42.86	42.86	-0.03	-0.03
Harvard	Ivy	0.18	0.18	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Penn	Ivy	0.18	0.18	74.19	74.19	0.09	0.09
Towson	CAA	0.17	0.17	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.17	0.17	70.97	70.97	0.07	0.07
Northeastern	CAA	0.17	0.17	68.75	68.75	0.06	0.06
Iona	MAAC	0.17	0.17	60.61	60.61	0.04	0.04
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.15	0.15	23.08	23.08	-0.08	-0.08
Brown	Ivy	0.15	0.15	38.46	38.46	-0.03	-0.03
Connecticut	Amer	0.15	0.15	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Hartford	AE	0.14	0.14	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.14	0.14	25.00	25.00	-0.07	-0.07
Miami FL	ACC	0.14	0.14	70.97	70.97	0.06	0.06
Syracuse	ACC	0.14	0.14	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Yale	Ivy	0.13	0.13	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Villanova	BE	0.12	0.12	88.24	88.24	0.09	0.09
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.12	0.12	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Wagner	NEC	0.12	0.12	70.00	70.00	0.05	0.05
Boston College	ACC	0.12	0.12	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.12	0.12	9.68	9.68	-0.09	-0.09
Denver	Sum	0.12	0.12	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.12	0.12	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Elon	CAA	0.11	0.11	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.11	0.11	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Delaware	CAA	0.11	0.11	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
NJIT	ASun	0.11	0.11	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
West Virginia	B12	0.11	0.11	70.59	70.59	0.05	0.05
La Salle	A10	0.11	0.11	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
UNLV	MWC	0.09	0.09	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.09	0.09	93.94	93.94	0.08	0.08
George Mason	A10	0.09	0.09	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Memphis	Amer	0.09	0.09	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.09	0.09	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.09	0.09	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.09	0.09	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.09	0.09	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	15.62	15.62	-0.06	-0.06
The Citadel	SC	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
Massachusetts	A10	0.08	0.08	39.39	39.39	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland	B10	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.08	0.08	71.43	71.43	0.03	0.03
Richmond	A10	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.06	0.06	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	73.33	73.33	0.03	0.03
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Fresno St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
New Mexico	MWC	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
San Diego St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
San Jose St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	10.34	10.34	-0.05	-0.05
USC	P12	0.06	0.06	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Utah St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	6.67	6.67	-0.05	-0.05
Notre Dame	ACC	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
College of Charleston	CAA	0.06	0.06	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Howard	MEAC	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
James Madison	CAA	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Marquette	BE	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.06	0.06	16.67	16.67	-0.04	-0.04
VMI	SC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Western Illinois	Sum	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
William & Mary	CAA	0.06	0.06	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.06	0.06	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Duke	ACC	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.06	0.06	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.06	0.06	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Murray St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	82.76	82.76	0.04	0.04
Nebraska	B10	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Stetson	ASun	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
VCU	A10	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Longwood	BSth	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.03	0.03	44.44	44.44	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Montana St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Pacific	WCC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Texas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
UC Riverside	BW	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.02	-0.02
Wyoming	MWC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona	P12	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Charlotte	CUSA	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Chicago St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	3.33	3.33	-0.03	-0.03
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia Southern	SB	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Houston	Amer	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Illinois	B10	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Liberty	BSth	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Louisville	ACC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
SMU	Amer	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
BYU	WCC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	32.35	32.35	-0.01	-0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
UT Arlington	SB	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01