live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Dec 6, 2016.


Army

Conference:Pat
Expected RPI:190.1
Current RPI:250
Expected SOS:215
Current SOS:282
Current Record:3-4
Expected Record:15-14
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-5
Current OOC Record:3-4
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:196
Expected OOC SOS:157



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-652.50.02%
22-766.30.06%
21-881.60.17%
20-990.90.70%
19-10108.32.30%
18-11124.25.28%
17-12142.710.35%
16-13161.815.13%
15-14181.717.53%
14-15201.317.76%
13-16221.814.46%
12-17241.58.74%
11-18259.74.64%
10-19278.11.87%
9-20291.90.76%
8-21305.60.19%
7-22316.70.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Army.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Oregon (31.0)P12A91-77L0%0.0
11-19Arkansas St. (78.4)SBH57-60L0%0.0
11-20Central Arkansas (268.8)SlndA81-76L0%0.0
11-23Columbia (246.3)IvyA83-88W100%0.0
11-26Fairfield (164.8)MAACA75-74L0%0.0
11-30Fairleigh Dickinson (254.8)NECH97-78W100%0.0
12-3St. Francis NY (328.9)NECH76-56W100%0.0
12-7Air Force (168.0)MWCH0-050%-0.1
12-10Monmouth (66.9)MAACA0-018%-10.9
12-19St. Bonaventure (60.5)A10A0-013%-13.7
12-21Binghamton (260.2)AEH0-080%9.9
12-30Lehigh (107.9)PatH0-044%-1.8
1-2Bucknell (94.2)PatA0-024%-8.3
1-5Lafayette (276.3)PatA0-062%3.5
1-8Loyola MD (202.1)PatH0-068%5.8
1-11Colgate (289.2)PatH0-076%8.5
1-14American (299.0)PatA0-061%3.3
1-18Holy Cross (195.1)PatH0-066%4.9
1-21Navy (261.6)PatH0-074%7.9
1-25Boston University (179.7)PatA0-035%-4.7
1-28Bucknell (94.2)PatH0-043%-2.0
2-1Lafayette (276.3)PatH0-079%9.8
2-4Loyola MD (202.1)PatA0-048%-0.5
2-8Colgate (289.2)PatA0-057%2.2
2-11American (299.0)PatH0-079%9.6
2-15Holy Cross (195.1)PatA0-045%-1.4
2-18Navy (261.6)PatA0-055%1.6
2-22Boston University (179.7)PatH0-055%1.5
2-25Lehigh (107.9)PatA0-025%-8.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Army's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Army's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Army.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ArmyPat28.3426.3944.8351.10-2.930.58
ColgatePat0.514.4612.5029.88-0.38-1.80
Loyola MDPat0.454.4542.8646.18-0.06-0.34
BucknellPat0.454.4370.0070.830.181.85
Holy CrossPat0.004.4337.5047.65-0.00-0.21
NavyPat0.004.4333.3338.82-0.00-0.99
LafayettePat0.454.4242.8635.84-0.06-1.25
LehighPat0.454.4237.5061.52-0.111.02
AmericanPat0.004.3912.5028.53-0.00-1.89
Boston UniversityPat0.004.3942.8655.07-0.000.45
FairfieldMAAC7.141.9057.1454.311.020.16
St. Francis NYNEC7.141.8514.2926.94-5.10-0.85
BinghamtonAE0.001.8450.0043.570.00-0.24
ColumbiaIvy7.141.8450.0045.530.00-0.16
MonmouthMAAC0.001.8477.7871.900.000.81
Arkansas St.SB7.141.8171.4364.953.060.54
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC7.141.7820.0041.47-4.29-0.30
Central ArkansasSlnd7.141.750.0028.19-7.14-0.76
Air ForceMWC0.001.7257.1448.020.00-0.07
OregonP127.141.7271.4371.873.060.75
St. BonaventureA100.001.7275.0069.770.000.68
St. Francis PANEC0.000.3033.3340.37-0.00-0.06
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.3011.1149.12-0.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.600.3057.1450.860.090.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.2720.0060.00-0.000.05
Sacred HeartNEC0.450.2744.4438.15-0.05-0.06
CornellIvy0.000.2428.5730.43-0.00-0.10
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.2462.5052.400.000.01
AlbanyAE0.000.2442.8660.66-0.000.05
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.2430.0045.49-0.00-0.02
New HampshireAE0.000.2462.5062.120.000.06
WagnerNEC0.450.2428.5752.65-0.190.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.2337.5044.42-0.00-0.03
Stony BrookAE0.510.2237.5043.19-0.13-0.03
PennIvy0.000.2233.3356.66-0.000.03
MaineAE0.000.2114.2923.40-0.00-0.11
QuinnipiacMAAC0.510.2028.5737.54-0.22-0.05
SyracuseACC0.000.2062.5062.080.000.05
ManhattanMAAC0.000.2022.2232.01-0.00-0.07
SienaMAAC0.450.2033.3350.05-0.150.00
UMass LowellAE0.000.1820.0035.15-0.00-0.05
BryantNEC0.000.1822.2246.51-0.00-0.01
DuquesneA100.000.1840.0039.19-0.00-0.04
MaristMAAC0.000.1744.4434.60-0.00-0.05
Saint Joseph'sA100.510.1542.8645.34-0.07-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.1528.5727.38-0.00-0.07
La SalleA100.000.1557.1456.540.000.02
IonaMAAC0.000.1557.1464.540.000.04
NiagaraMAAC0.000.1425.0035.75-0.00-0.04
Little RockSB0.450.1466.6761.400.150.03
YaleIvy0.000.1342.8663.63-0.000.03
HarvardIvy0.000.1233.3349.39-0.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.000.1222.2226.44-0.00-0.06
UMBCAE0.000.1280.0054.190.000.01
VillanovaBE0.000.12100.0084.740.000.08
NJITASun0.000.1244.4451.58-0.000.00
Notre DameACC0.000.12100.0076.970.000.06
NortheasternCAA0.000.1244.4443.25-0.00-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.450.1275.0050.980.220.00
RiderMAAC0.450.1257.1450.790.060.00
MassachusettsA100.000.1171.4358.170.000.02
DartmouthIvy0.450.100.0020.72-0.45-0.06
BrownIvy0.450.1050.0043.770.00-0.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0916.6743.53-0.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0942.8653.80-0.000.01
Ohio St.B100.600.0977.7862.010.330.02
DrexelCAA0.000.0950.0041.460.00-0.02
AkronMAC0.000.0971.4368.930.000.03
Boise St.MWC0.450.0950.0056.890.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.450.0942.8644.90-0.06-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0957.1443.930.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.450.0957.1459.020.060.02
UNLVMWC0.000.0962.5042.780.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.000.0975.0062.450.000.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.0866.6770.400.000.03
RichmondA100.000.0850.0048.500.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.450.08100.0074.830.450.04
South CarolinaSEC0.000.08100.0078.180.000.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.080.0026.22-0.00-0.04
Seton HallBE1.110.0675.0054.480.550.01
HofstraCAA0.510.0655.5643.870.06-0.01
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0076.540.000.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0675.0047.520.00-0.00
VermontAE0.000.0662.5071.400.000.03
XavierBE0.000.0687.5070.880.000.03
FordhamA100.600.0650.0041.640.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.0675.0072.930.000.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0666.6761.690.000.01
FurmanSC0.000.0642.8657.52-0.000.01
High PointBSth0.000.0637.5044.87-0.00-0.01
MarylandB100.000.0687.5059.030.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.060.0034.54-0.00-0.02
NevadaMWC0.000.0677.7871.770.000.03
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0660.0069.260.000.02
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0650.0040.690.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0671.4365.470.000.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0671.4355.570.000.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0642.8650.57-0.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.000.060.0016.33-0.00-0.04
WyomingMWC0.000.0666.6753.730.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0637.5038.08-0.00-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0657.1451.740.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0616.6730.09-0.00-0.02
CaliforniaP120.000.0687.5064.760.000.02
CampbellBSth0.000.0642.8639.64-0.00-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0625.0038.98-0.00-0.01
DaytonA100.000.0671.4373.270.000.03
GeorgetownBE0.890.0655.5647.600.10-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0671.4363.080.000.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0616.6729.83-0.00-0.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0625.0023.62-0.00-0.03
Penn St.B100.000.0666.6746.170.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0625.0023.99-0.00-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.890.060.0019.08-0.89-0.04
South AlabamaSB0.000.0671.4357.210.000.01
StanfordP120.000.0666.6758.600.000.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0650.0030.320.00-0.02
TroySB0.000.0642.8636.07-0.00-0.02
UCLAP120.000.06100.0086.650.000.04
USCP120.000.06100.0076.400.000.03
USC UpstateASun0.000.0644.4441.55-0.00-0.01
UtahP120.000.0680.0058.220.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0655.5637.870.00-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.890.0675.0074.590.450.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0640.0054.81-0.000.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0640.0041.72-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0642.8637.05-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.060.0036.38-0.00-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0616.6740.32-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0620.0042.14-0.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0642.8650.33-0.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0625.0055.44-0.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0655.5646.770.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.0677.7855.180.000.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0377.7866.740.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0387.5082.440.000.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0312.5037.11-0.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0314.2935.05-0.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0357.1471.170.000.01
LipscombASun0.600.0311.1132.47-0.46-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.030.0038.43-0.00-0.01
RutgersB100.000.0387.5050.250.000.00
St. John'sBE0.000.0344.4436.20-0.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0357.1429.760.00-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0371.4360.090.000.01
DenverSum0.000.0342.8645.65-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0370.0050.010.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0022.47-0.00-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0362.5060.090.000.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0360.0058.900.000.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0362.5058.130.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0375.0069.680.000.01
StetsonASun0.000.0325.0026.46-0.00-0.01
UC DavisBW0.000.0350.0045.660.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.000.0377.7870.290.000.01
BaylorB120.450.03100.0076.070.450.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0333.3352.03-0.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0375.0058.720.000.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.450.0328.5731.07-0.19-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0371.4362.990.000.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0377.7872.930.000.01
George MasonA100.000.0362.5046.490.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0355.5642.150.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0342.8643.55-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0350.0061.350.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0388.8966.920.000.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0325.0048.70-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.0342.8633.51-0.00-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.450.0377.7859.940.250.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.450.0350.0042.770.00-0.00
TCUB120.450.03100.0060.950.450.01
TennesseeSEC0.450.0350.0044.700.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0375.0055.480.000.00
Texas St.SB0.000.0350.0044.180.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0383.3377.290.000.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0362.5067.590.000.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.450.0320.0022.88-0.27-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.450.0385.7175.250.320.01
VirginiaACC0.450.0388.8978.430.350.02
WashingtonP120.000.0357.1452.140.000.00
Washington St.P120.000.0342.8629.20-0.00-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0038.78-0.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0325.0042.78-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.000.0342.8640.38-0.00-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0017.92-0.00-0.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0375.0056.270.000.00
MichiganB100.000.0377.7865.840.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0316.6738.87-0.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0387.5081.910.000.02
Oklahoma St.B120.450.0371.4354.010.190.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0057.950.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.450.0342.8638.35-0.06-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0360.0062.420.000.01
Western MichiganMAC0.450.0316.6735.90-0.30-0.01
WisconsinB100.450.0377.7876.550.250.01