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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Army

Conference:Pat
Expected RPI:214.0
Current RPI:214
Expected SOS:320
Current SOS:320
Current Record:18-13
Expected Record:18-13
Current Conf Record:10-10
Expected Conf Record:10-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:15-7
Current OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:134
Expected OOC SOS:312



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-13214.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Army.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Binghamton (299.0)AEA60-75W100%0.0
11-18Fairleigh Dickinson (205.0)NECA85-96W100%0.0
11-22George Washington (68.0)A10A92-81L0%0.0
11-24Tennessee (143.0)SECA95-80L0%0.0
11-27Arkansas Pine Bluff (311.0)SWACH81-60W100%0.0
11-28Gardner Webb (210.0)BSthH103-98W100%0.0
12-2Maine (317.0)AEA71-84W100%0.0
12-8Bryant (320.0)NECA55-77W100%0.0
12-12Air Force (226.0)MWCA80-90W100%0.0
12-20Marist (318.0)MAACH83-89L0%0.0
12-28Monmouth (52.0)MAACH91-84W100%0.0
12-30Lehigh (168.0)PatA82-88W100%0.0
1-2Bucknell (183.0)PatH76-84L0%0.0
1-6Lafayette (329.0)PatH73-76L0%0.0
1-9Loyola MD (255.0)PatA59-73W100%0.0
1-13Colgate (241.0)PatA80-66L0%0.0
1-17American (231.0)PatH65-45W100%0.0
1-20Holy Cross (248.0)PatA69-65L0%0.0
1-27Boston University (196.0)PatH67-76L0%0.0
1-30Bucknell (183.0)PatA94-66L0%0.0
2-1Navy (216.0)PatH50-64L0%0.0
2-3Lafayette (329.0)PatA81-84W100%0.0
2-6Loyola MD (255.0)PatH99-100L0%0.0
2-8Colgate (241.0)PatH82-72W100%0.0
2-13American (231.0)PatA59-65W100%0.0
2-17Holy Cross (248.0)PatH72-68W100%0.0
2-20Navy (216.0)PatA78-80W100%0.0
2-23Boston University (196.0)PatA71-80W100%0.0
2-27Lehigh (168.0)PatH72-82L0%0.0
3-3Colgate (241.0)PatH79-72W100%0.0
3-6Holy Cross (248.0)PatH38-60L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Army's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Army's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Army.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ArmyPat26.4926.4957.9957.994.234.23
Holy CrossPat5.965.9640.0040.00-1.19-1.19
ColgatePat5.755.7542.3142.31-0.88-0.88
LehighPat4.354.3551.7251.720.150.15
NavyPat4.284.2856.6756.670.570.57
AmericanPat4.284.2841.3841.38-0.74-0.74
LafayettePat4.274.2717.8617.86-2.75-2.75
Boston UniversityPat4.254.2555.1755.170.440.44
Loyola MDPat4.244.2428.5728.57-1.82-1.82
BucknellPat4.244.2451.8551.850.160.16
BinghamtonAE1.801.8027.5927.59-0.81-0.81
MaineAE1.741.7427.5927.59-0.78-0.78
MaristMAAC1.731.7320.6920.69-1.02-1.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC1.721.7256.6756.670.230.23
George WashingtonA101.721.7268.7568.750.640.64
MonmouthMAAC1.671.6781.8281.821.061.06
BryantNEC1.661.6624.1424.14-0.86-0.86
TennesseeSEC1.661.6642.4242.42-0.25-0.25
Gardner WebbBSth1.661.6648.2848.28-0.06-0.06
Air ForceMWC1.611.6141.3841.38-0.28-0.28
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC1.611.6125.0025.00-0.81-0.81
New HampshireAE0.420.4258.6258.620.070.07
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.370.3742.4242.42-0.06-0.06
AlbanyAE0.340.3474.1974.190.170.17
UMBCAE0.300.3021.8821.88-0.17-0.17
Stony BrookAE0.270.2780.0080.000.160.16
St. Francis PANEC0.260.2641.3841.38-0.05-0.05
QuinnipiacMAAC0.250.2530.0030.00-0.10-0.10
Robert MorrisNEC0.240.2431.2531.25-0.09-0.09
SienaMAAC0.240.2463.6463.640.060.06
WagnerNEC0.230.2367.7467.740.080.08
FairfieldMAAC0.230.2359.3859.380.040.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.230.2340.0040.00-0.05-0.05
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.210.2146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.210.2142.4242.42-0.03-0.03
CornellIvy0.190.1933.3333.33-0.06-0.06
LIU BrooklynNEC0.190.1951.6151.610.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.180.1841.9441.94-0.03-0.03
HartfordAE0.180.1828.1228.12-0.08-0.08
VermontAE0.160.1660.6160.610.030.03
FordhamA100.160.1655.1755.170.020.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.160.1613.7913.79-0.12-0.12
St. Francis NYNEC0.160.1645.1645.16-0.02-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.160.1635.7135.71-0.05-0.05
BrownIvy0.150.1525.9325.93-0.07-0.07
HarvardIvy0.150.1542.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.150.1553.1253.120.010.01
SyracuseACC0.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
PrincetonIvy0.140.1477.7877.780.080.08
George MasonA100.130.1334.3834.38-0.04-0.04
PennIvy0.130.1337.0437.04-0.03-0.03
KansasB120.130.1387.8887.880.100.10
LSUSEC0.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
IonaMAAC0.120.1268.7568.750.050.05
RiderMAAC0.120.1239.3939.39-0.03-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.110.1165.5265.520.030.03
Georgia TechACC0.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
TCUB120.110.1136.3636.36-0.03-0.03
NJITASun0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.110.1173.3373.330.050.05
NiagaraMAAC0.100.1021.8821.88-0.06-0.06
USCP120.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
VCUA100.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
USC UpstateASun0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
KentuckySEC0.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
CampbellBSth0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.080.0857.6957.690.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
UNLVMWC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Penn St.B100.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
TowsonCAA0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
YaleIvy0.080.0877.7877.780.040.04
La SalleA100.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0864.2964.290.020.02
FurmanSC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
VMISC0.080.0822.2222.22-0.04-0.04
MassachusettsA100.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.080.0824.2424.24-0.04-0.04
VirginiaACC0.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0822.8622.86-0.04-0.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
RutgersB100.070.0719.3519.35-0.05-0.05
FloridaSEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.0735.7135.71-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
High PointBSth0.050.0564.2964.290.020.02
LibertyBSth0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
NevadaMWC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
NorthwesternB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Utah St.MWC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
WyomingMWC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
PurdueB100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
IPFWSum0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
OregonP120.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
DavidsonA100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
DuquesneA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
RichmondA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Saint LouisA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
DaytonA100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
MissouriSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.050.0547.0647.06-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Boise St.MWC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
ColoradoP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
DenverSum0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
DukeACC0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
MarquetteBE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
MichiganB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
OaklandHorz0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
The CitadelSC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
VillanovaBE0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
DePaulBE0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.020.0283.3383.330.020.02
Iowa St.B120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
OhioMAC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Texas TechB120.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
UCFAmer0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
ButlerBE0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
DrexelCAA0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
MississippiSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
UCLAP120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00