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Through games of Feb 7, 2016.


Army

Conference:Pat
Expected RPI:220.5
Current RPI:235
Expected SOS:315
Current SOS:325
Current Record:12-11
Expected Record:15-14
Current Conf Record:4-8
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-7
Current OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:117
Expected OOC SOS:309



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-11185.82.75%
17-12199.116.28%
16-13212.931.84%
15-14227.130.32%
14-15242.915.09%
13-16259.33.52%
12-17270.50.19%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Army.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Binghamton (307.7)AEA60-75W100%0.0
11-18Fairleigh Dickinson (222.8)NECA85-96W100%0.0
11-22George Washington (45.0)A10A92-81L0%0.0
11-24Tennessee (119.1)SECA95-80L0%0.0
11-27Arkansas Pine Bluff (319.6)SWACH81-60W100%0.0
11-28Gardner Webb (208.7)BSthH103-98W100%0.0
12-2Maine (301.0)AEA71-84W100%0.0
12-8Bryant (319.4)NECA55-77W100%0.0
12-12Air Force (232.3)MWCA80-90W100%0.0
12-20Marist (312.2)MAACH83-89L0%0.0
12-28Monmouth (41.5)MAACH91-84W100%0.0
12-30Lehigh (221.0)PatA82-88W100%0.0
1-2Bucknell (168.4)PatH76-84L0%0.0
1-6Lafayette (313.0)PatH73-76L0%0.0
1-9Loyola MD (231.0)PatA59-73W100%0.0
1-13Colgate (223.3)PatA80-66L0%0.0
1-17American (262.3)PatH65-45W100%0.0
1-20Holy Cross (290.7)PatA69-65L0%0.0
1-27Boston University (193.8)PatH67-76L0%0.0
1-30Bucknell (168.4)PatA94-66L0%0.0
2-1Navy (184.9)PatH50-64L0%0.0
2-3Lafayette (313.0)PatA81-84W100%0.0
2-6Loyola MD (231.0)PatH99-100L0%0.0
2-8Colgate (223.3)PatH0-067%4.8
2-13American (262.3)PatA0-065%4.2
2-17Holy Cross (290.7)PatH0-082%9.9
2-20Navy (184.9)PatA0-034%-4.5
2-23Boston University (193.8)PatA0-038%-3.3
2-27Lehigh (221.0)PatH0-062%3.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Army's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Army's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Army.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ArmyPat26.3926.4054.4055.202.322.74
Holy CrossPat3.004.4736.3636.80-0.82-1.18
Boston UniversityPat2.954.4552.1753.750.130.33
ColgatePat2.894.4442.8644.53-0.41-0.49
NavyPat2.854.4260.8760.980.620.97
AmericanPat2.914.4131.8232.96-1.06-1.50
Loyola MDPat4.984.4133.3336.20-1.66-1.22
BucknellPat4.924.4150.0054.920.000.43
LafayettePat5.014.4020.0022.04-3.01-2.46
LehighPat2.794.3435.0038.71-0.84-0.98
BinghamtonAE2.321.9022.7325.55-1.26-0.93
George WashingtonA102.371.8577.2773.571.290.87
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC2.321.8452.3853.830.110.14
MaineAE2.271.8436.3635.22-0.62-0.54
MaristMAAC2.271.8419.0522.04-1.40-1.03
BryantNEC2.221.7926.0927.28-1.06-0.81
TennesseeSEC2.271.7845.4545.10-0.21-0.17
MonmouthMAAC2.221.7882.6183.451.451.19
Gardner WebbBSth2.271.7847.6249.40-0.11-0.02
Air ForceMWC2.171.7247.6239.84-0.10-0.35
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC2.171.7221.7424.40-1.23-0.88
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.430.3940.0045.51-0.09-0.04
New HampshireAE0.380.3955.0053.180.040.02
AlbanyAE0.290.3375.0075.850.140.17
Stony BrookAE0.340.3080.9582.700.210.20
UMBCAE0.330.3024.0026.41-0.17-0.14
Robert MorrisNEC0.340.2728.0030.73-0.15-0.11
St. Francis PANEC0.340.2750.0049.440.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.430.2664.0064.120.120.07
QuinnipiacMAAC0.280.2638.1037.44-0.07-0.07
Sacred HeartNEC0.240.2434.7837.07-0.07-0.06
CanisiusMAAC0.240.2444.0045.31-0.03-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.330.2454.1754.130.030.02
WagnerNEC0.230.2463.6465.030.060.07
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.340.2438.1041.93-0.08-0.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.290.2147.8348.91-0.01-0.00
CornellIvy0.240.1842.1140.16-0.04-0.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.240.1837.5043.37-0.06-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.230.1813.0413.54-0.17-0.13
HartfordAE0.140.1826.0926.50-0.07-0.08
ManhattanMAAC0.190.1842.8641.97-0.03-0.03
UMass LowellAE0.140.1831.8232.67-0.05-0.06
PrincetonIvy0.250.1572.2274.710.110.08
FordhamA100.190.1555.0052.290.020.01
PennIvy0.190.1538.8937.66-0.04-0.04
VermontAE0.190.1554.1757.520.020.02
BrownIvy0.190.1531.5831.05-0.07-0.06
Rhode IslandA100.140.1556.5256.610.020.02
HarvardIvy0.140.1535.0038.52-0.04-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.150.1366.6765.210.050.04
SyracuseACC0.100.1366.6762.560.030.03
LSUSEC0.100.1265.2260.270.030.02
NJITASun0.140.1254.1755.250.010.01
KansasB120.140.1281.8277.570.090.07
George MasonA100.100.1234.7834.15-0.03-0.04
USCP120.190.1278.2673.060.110.05
St. BonaventureA100.140.1271.4368.970.060.04
IonaMAAC0.140.1260.8760.730.030.02
NiagaraMAAC0.090.1224.0024.57-0.05-0.06
RiderMAAC0.050.1240.0042.11-0.01-0.02
VCUA100.090.1273.9173.900.050.06
USC UpstateASun0.090.1122.7323.25-0.05-0.06
KentuckySEC0.090.1173.9171.550.040.05
LongwoodBSth0.100.0922.7324.97-0.05-0.05
YaleIvy0.100.0973.6874.650.050.05
VirginiaACC0.100.0982.6178.050.060.05
TowsonCAA0.140.0965.2259.750.040.02
FurmanSC0.090.0952.1753.310.000.01
VMISC0.090.0915.7917.42-0.06-0.06
Georgia TechACC0.100.0952.1751.590.000.00
La SalleA100.100.0920.0020.45-0.06-0.05
Penn St.B100.150.0950.0046.740.00-0.01
TCUB120.100.0943.4837.22-0.01-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.140.0931.5831.79-0.05-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.100.0956.5260.000.010.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.140.0966.6762.620.050.02
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0950.0049.860.00-0.00
RutgersB100.140.0921.7420.35-0.08-0.05
FloridaSEC0.090.0965.2266.090.030.03
MassachusettsA100.090.0940.9139.36-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.090.0920.0019.66-0.06-0.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.090.0816.6720.13-0.06-0.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.090.089.0917.09-0.07-0.05
CampbellBSth0.050.0628.5729.65-0.02-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0623.8126.56-0.03-0.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0660.0060.090.010.01
High PointBSth0.100.0655.0057.480.010.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0634.7836.50-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.100.0625.0026.87-0.05-0.03
PurdueB100.050.0679.1776.550.030.03
RadfordBSth0.100.0650.0051.270.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.100.0650.0049.090.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.100.0643.4840.61-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.100.0621.7423.32-0.06-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.100.0665.2266.160.030.02
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0652.3850.410.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0661.9059.660.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.050.0657.1459.470.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0630.4335.11-0.02-0.02
NevadaMWC0.050.0655.0054.530.000.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0660.8763.000.010.02
NorthwesternB100.090.0666.6763.420.030.02
San Jose St.MWC0.100.0625.0022.76-0.05-0.03
UNLVMWC0.050.0650.0055.200.000.01
Utah St.MWC0.050.0645.0046.77-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.100.0643.4842.50-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0630.4332.35-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.0615.0027.26-0.07-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0663.6460.940.010.01
IPFWSum0.050.0670.8368.570.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.050.0645.8346.66-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.050.0682.6179.210.030.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0628.5731.89-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.090.0683.3383.020.060.04
GeorgetownBE0.090.0654.1752.340.010.00
ArkansasSEC0.050.0652.1755.930.000.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0640.9136.61-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.050.0660.0057.960.010.01
DaytonA100.090.0686.3682.380.070.04
DuquesneA100.050.0663.6456.430.010.01
RichmondA100.050.0654.5554.490.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0686.3679.150.030.03
CincinnatiAmer0.090.0570.8370.840.040.02
MissouriSEC0.050.0534.7830.36-0.01-0.02
NebraskaB100.090.0554.1751.810.010.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.090.0538.8945.66-0.02-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0530.0035.77-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0536.8438.39-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0515.7920.03-0.03-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0547.6252.67-0.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.050.0565.0066.790.010.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0545.4554.11-0.000.00
IowaB100.050.0382.6180.580.030.02
WinthropBSth0.050.0365.0063.440.010.01
TempleAmer0.050.0363.6459.840.010.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0386.9686.370.040.02
Boise St.MWC0.050.0363.6462.530.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0330.4326.50-0.02-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0359.0958.880.010.01
ColoradoP120.050.0369.5765.330.020.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0373.9172.480.020.01
DenverSum0.050.0354.1751.800.000.00
FIUCUSA0.050.0340.9145.30-0.01-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.050.0363.6459.440.010.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0362.5056.260.010.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0365.2268.610.020.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0368.0067.970.020.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0358.3354.160.010.00
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0372.7372.030.000.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0372.0070.510.020.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0368.1866.670.020.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0333.3331.31-0.02-0.01
UC DavisBW0.050.0340.0036.77-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.050.0373.9170.040.020.01
MichiganB100.050.0369.5766.220.020.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0375.0070.940.020.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0359.0953.030.010.00
ButlerBE0.050.0369.5767.230.020.01
DePaulBE0.050.0334.7834.45-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.050.0313.6418.14-0.03-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0359.0959.440.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0322.7327.19-0.03-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0361.9056.690.010.00
GonzagaWCC0.050.0378.2676.810.030.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0350.0051.170.000.00
MississippiSEC0.000.0365.2259.020.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0340.9140.65-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.050.0369.5765.850.020.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0382.6178.890.000.02
Saint LouisA100.050.0336.3633.47-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0373.9169.830.020.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0378.2678.050.030.02
UCFAmer0.050.0352.3845.700.00-0.00
UCLAP120.050.0356.5253.240.010.00
HawaiiBW0.050.0384.2181.670.030.02
Iowa St.B120.050.0373.9170.060.020.01
OhioMAC0.050.0361.9059.430.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0347.8344.37-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0330.4331.18-0.02-0.01
SeattleWAC0.050.0347.6244.99-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.050.0359.0953.120.010.00
Virginia TechACC0.050.0354.1749.270.00-0.00