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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Army

Conference:Pat
Expected RPI:266.0
Current RPI:266
Expected SOS:257
Current SOS:257
Current Record:12-19
Expected Record:12-19
Current Conf Record:7-13
Expected Conf Record:7-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-8
Current OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:226
Expected OOC SOS:264



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-19266.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Army.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Oregon (9.0)P12A91-77L0%0.0
11-19Arkansas St. (119.0)SBH57-60L0%0.0
11-20Central Arkansas (313.0)SlndN81-76L0%0.0
11-23Columbia (262.0)IvyA83-88W100%0.0
11-26Fairfield (180.0)MAACA75-74L0%0.0
11-30Fairleigh Dickinson (273.0)NECH97-78W100%0.0
12-3St. Francis NY (348.0)NECH76-56W100%0.0
12-7Air Force (250.0)MWCH79-71W100%0.0
12-10Monmouth (49.0)MAACA81-71L0%0.0
12-19St. Bonaventure (91.0)A10A92-83L0%0.0
12-21Binghamton (311.0)AEH71-60W100%0.0
12-30Lehigh (97.0)PatH59-66L0%0.0
1-2Bucknell (63.0)PatA84-76L0%0.0
1-5Lafayette (321.0)PatA79-74L0%0.0
1-8Loyola MD (212.0)PatH66-57W100%0.0
1-11Colgate (294.0)PatH76-79L0%0.0
1-14American (310.0)PatA49-53W100%0.0
1-18Holy Cross (204.0)PatH76-85L0%0.0
1-21Navy (208.0)PatH80-96L0%0.0
1-25Boston University (187.0)PatA90-89L0%0.0
1-28Bucknell (63.0)PatH75-96L0%0.0
2-1Lafayette (321.0)PatH80-73W100%0.0
2-4Loyola MD (212.0)PatA78-63L0%0.0
2-8Colgate (294.0)PatA70-58L0%0.0
2-11American (310.0)PatH58-61L0%0.0
2-15Holy Cross (204.0)PatA47-52W100%0.0
2-18Navy (208.0)PatA68-71W100%0.0
2-22Boston University (187.0)PatH73-62W100%0.0
2-25Lehigh (97.0)PatA83-69L0%0.0
2-28American (310.0)PatH74-58W100%0.0
3-2Bucknell (63.0)PatA78-62L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Army's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Army's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Army.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ArmyPat26.4826.4837.4137.41-6.67-6.67
BucknellPat5.875.8774.1974.192.842.84
AmericanPat5.725.7225.9325.93-2.75-2.75
LehighPat4.364.3658.6258.620.750.75
Loyola MDPat4.324.3246.4346.43-0.31-0.31
NavyPat4.314.3148.2848.28-0.15-0.15
ColgatePat4.274.2724.1424.14-2.21-2.21
Boston UniversityPat4.274.2755.1755.170.440.44
Holy CrossPat4.244.2446.6746.67-0.28-0.28
LafayettePat4.234.2325.9325.93-2.04-2.04
FairfieldMAAC1.791.7951.7251.720.060.06
St. Francis NYNEC1.721.7210.3410.34-1.37-1.37
BinghamtonAE1.721.7232.1432.14-0.61-0.61
MonmouthMAAC1.721.7281.2581.251.071.07
ColumbiaIvy1.721.7240.0040.00-0.34-0.34
Arkansas St.SB1.691.6960.0060.000.340.34
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC1.671.6735.7135.71-0.48-0.48
Central ArkansasSlnd1.641.6422.5822.58-0.90-0.90
Air ForceMWC1.611.6133.3333.33-0.54-0.54
OregonP121.611.6184.3884.381.111.11
St. BonaventureA101.611.6161.2961.290.360.36
St. Francis PANEC0.300.3048.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.290.2955.8855.880.030.03
WagnerNEC0.270.2751.7251.720.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.270.2778.5778.570.150.15
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.260.2659.3859.380.050.05
SienaMAAC0.250.2550.0050.000.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.240.2440.6240.62-0.05-0.05
New HampshireAE0.240.2458.6258.620.040.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.230.2342.4242.42-0.04-0.04
CornellIvy0.220.2225.0025.00-0.11-0.11
Stony BrookAE0.220.2258.0658.060.040.04
AlbanyAE0.220.2260.6160.610.050.05
LIU BrooklynNEC0.220.2261.2961.290.050.05
CanisiusMAAC0.210.2154.5554.550.020.02
ManhattanMAAC0.200.2031.2531.25-0.08-0.08
PennIvy0.200.2046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.190.1919.3519.35-0.12-0.12
QuinnipiacMAAC0.180.1832.2632.26-0.07-0.07
SyracuseACC0.180.1856.2556.250.020.02
BryantNEC0.160.1635.4835.48-0.05-0.05
UMass LowellAE0.160.1633.3333.33-0.05-0.05
DuquesneA100.160.1631.2531.25-0.06-0.06
MaristMAAC0.150.1525.0025.00-0.08-0.08
NiagaraMAAC0.150.1530.3030.30-0.06-0.06
La SalleA100.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.140.1420.6920.69-0.08-0.08
Saint Joseph'sA100.140.1435.4835.48-0.04-0.04
VillanovaBE0.140.1491.1891.180.110.11
IonaMAAC0.130.1364.7164.710.040.04
Little RockSB0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.130.1345.4545.45-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.110.1160.7160.710.020.02
HarvardIvy0.110.1161.5461.540.030.03
HowardMEAC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.06-0.06
HartfordAE0.110.1128.1228.12-0.05-0.05
NJITASun0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
UMBCAE0.110.1157.1457.140.020.02
AkronMAC0.110.1175.7675.760.050.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.110.1173.5373.530.050.05
NortheasternCAA0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.100.1072.7372.730.050.05
ButlerBE0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
RichmondA100.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
BrownIvy0.090.0939.2939.29-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.090.0925.9325.93-0.04-0.04
TowsonCAA0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
MarylandB100.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0823.0823.08-0.04-0.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0834.3834.38-0.03-0.03
DrexelCAA0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Ohio St.B100.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
WyomingMWC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
UNLVMWC0.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Arizona St.P120.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Seton HallBE0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
HofstraCAA0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.060.0684.8584.850.040.04
CreightonBE0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
FordhamA100.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
CampbellBSth0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
FurmanSC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
High PointBSth0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
NevadaMWC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
Penn St.B100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0536.0036.00-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0536.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
ArizonaP120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
Oregon St.P120.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
StanfordP120.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
USCP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
UtahP120.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
LipscombASun0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
UC DavisBW0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
FloridaSEC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
George MasonA100.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
George WashingtonA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0332.0032.00-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.030.0368.5768.570.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
BaylorB120.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
MemphisAmer0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
MontanaBSky0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
WashingtonP120.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00