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Through games of Mar 4, 2015.


Army

Conference:Pat
Expected RPI:235.7
Current RPI:237
Expected SOS:285
Current SOS:284
Current Record:14-15
Expected Record:14-15
Current Conf Record:6-13
Expected Conf Record:6-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.99%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-4
Current OOC Record:8-2
Expected OOC Record:8-2
Expected OOC RPI:131
Expected OOC SOS:328



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-15235.7100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Army.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Air Force (256.5)MWCH84-78W100%0.0
11-15VMI (282.5)SCH92-86W100%0.0
11-19St. Francis NY (158.2)NECA71-74W100%0.0
11-22Marist (327.5)MAACA62-76W100%0.0
11-25Binghamton (332.7)AEH80-54W100%0.0
11-30Duke (5.7)ACCA93-73L0%0.0
12-3Delaware (255.7)CAAA69-73W100%0.0
12-9Bryant (186.1)NECH73-80L0%0.0
12-13USC (209.2)P12A77-85W100%0.0
12-21Maine (339.2)AEH72-69W100%0.0
12-31Lafayette (147.4)PatH78-92L0%0.0
1-3Loyola MD (268.0)PatA53-77W100%0.0
1-7Lehigh (159.6)PatH60-71L0%0.0
1-10Navy (246.0)PatH66-75L0%0.0
1-14Holy Cross (197.9)PatA70-72W100%0.0
1-17Bucknell (129.3)PatA81-75L0%0.0
1-21Colgate (181.5)PatH65-63W100%0.0
1-26American (163.2)PatA66-68W100%0.0
1-29Boston University (199.6)PatH71-67W100%0.0
1-31Loyola MD (268.0)PatH71-77L0%0.0
2-4Lehigh (159.6)PatA103-74L0%0.0
2-7Navy (246.0)PatA67-59L0%0.0
2-11Holy Cross (197.9)PatH64-73L0%0.0
2-15Bucknell (129.3)PatH75-78L0%0.0
2-18Colgate (181.5)PatA84-69L0%0.0
2-22American (163.2)PatH72-63W100%0.0
2-25Boston University (199.6)PatA63-57L0%0.0
2-28Lafayette (147.4)PatA74-64L0%0.0
3-3Navy (246.0)PatA56-52L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Army's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Army's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Army.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ArmyPat26.5026.5048.9548.95-0.56-0.56
NavyPat6.196.1933.3333.33-2.06-2.06
Loyola MDPat4.524.5235.7135.71-1.29-1.29
Holy CrossPat4.514.5146.1546.15-0.35-0.35
BucknellPat4.494.4953.5753.570.320.32
ColgatePat4.494.4946.4346.43-0.32-0.32
Boston UniversityPat4.484.4842.3142.31-0.69-0.69
AmericanPat4.464.4653.5753.570.320.32
LafayettePat4.454.4553.8553.850.340.34
LehighPat4.454.4550.0050.000.000.00
BinghamtonAE1.991.9917.2417.24-1.30-1.30
VMISC1.841.8434.6234.62-0.57-0.57
MaristMAAC1.811.8120.6920.69-1.06-1.06
MaineAE1.781.7810.3410.34-1.41-1.41
St. Francis NYNEC1.781.7870.0070.000.710.71
BryantNEC1.781.7851.7251.720.060.06
Air ForceMWC1.721.7242.3142.31-0.27-0.27
DelawareCAA1.721.7235.7135.71-0.49-0.49
DukeACC1.721.7289.6688.241.371.32
USCP121.721.7237.9337.93-0.42-0.42
Sacred HeartNEC0.320.3245.1645.16-0.03-0.03
AlbanyAE0.320.3273.3373.330.150.15
ColumbiaIvy0.320.3248.0048.71-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.320.3251.7251.720.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.310.3150.0050.000.000.00
New HampshireAE0.260.2660.7160.710.060.06
Stony BrookAE0.260.2666.6766.670.090.09
UMBCAE0.230.2313.3313.33-0.17-0.17
SyracuseACC0.230.2360.0059.110.050.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.230.2340.0040.00-0.05-0.05
The CitadelSC0.210.2130.7730.77-0.08-0.08
QuinnipiacMAAC0.210.2151.7251.720.010.01
NJITind0.210.2156.0056.000.030.03
NortheasternCAA0.210.2164.5264.520.060.06
PennIvy0.210.2128.0028.96-0.09-0.09
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.200.2025.0025.00-0.10-0.10
Robert MorrisNEC0.200.2054.8454.840.020.02
WagnerNEC0.200.2031.0331.03-0.08-0.08
FairfieldMAAC0.200.2023.3323.33-0.11-0.11
CanisiusMAAC0.180.1855.1755.170.020.02
HartfordAE0.180.1844.8344.83-0.02-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.180.1839.2939.29-0.04-0.04
SienaMAAC0.170.1734.4834.48-0.05-0.05
VermontAE0.170.1758.6258.620.030.03
Notre DameACC0.170.1783.3383.560.110.11
HarvardIvy0.150.1575.0075.320.080.08
VillanovaBE0.150.1593.3393.130.130.13
Arizona St.P120.150.1551.7252.550.010.01
BrownIvy0.150.1540.7438.89-0.03-0.03
TowsonCAA0.150.1536.6736.67-0.04-0.04
CornellIvy0.140.1444.4444.55-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.140.1456.6757.730.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.140.1437.9338.79-0.03-0.03
La SalleA100.140.1450.0049.650.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.120.1260.0059.680.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
ElonCAA0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.120.1264.2961.970.030.03
TempleAmer0.120.1268.9768.640.040.04
ProvidenceBE0.110.1170.0069.390.050.04
Michigan St.B100.110.1166.6766.280.040.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.110.1116.1316.13-0.08-0.08
Wake ForestACC0.110.1143.3343.11-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.090.0973.3373.200.040.04
New MexicoMWC0.090.0948.2848.71-0.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.090.0960.7160.060.020.02
FurmanSC0.090.0922.2222.22-0.05-0.05
WoffordSC0.090.0979.3179.310.050.05
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.090.0957.1457.140.010.01
YaleIvy0.090.0970.3768.760.040.03
ColoradoP120.090.0946.4346.74-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.090.0943.3342.03-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.0957.1457.240.010.01
DrexelCAA0.090.0939.2939.29-0.02-0.02
ButlerBE0.090.0970.0069.320.030.03
ManhattanMAAC0.090.0955.1755.170.010.01
Penn St.B100.090.0950.0049.040.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.090.0944.8343.74-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.090.0921.4321.43-0.05-0.05
ToledoMAC0.090.0963.3363.010.020.02
Boise St.MWC0.060.0675.0075.640.030.03
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0682.7681.940.040.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0651.8551.850.000.00
MercerSC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
NevadaMWC0.060.0625.9325.08-0.03-0.03
SamfordSC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0675.8676.590.030.03
San Jose St.MWC0.060.060.000.13-0.06-0.06
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
UNLVMWC0.060.0651.7253.220.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.060.0679.3178.690.040.04
DePaulBE0.060.0640.0039.63-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.060.0680.0078.510.040.04
KentuckySEC0.060.06100.0099.900.060.06
PrincetonIvy0.060.0646.1547.66-0.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0646.4345.05-0.00-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.060.0633.3333.08-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
HofstraCAA0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.060.0659.2659.260.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.060.0657.1458.000.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0642.8643.44-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
AkronMAC0.060.0658.6257.940.010.01
CaliforniaP120.060.0658.6255.600.010.01
CampbellBSth0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.060.0646.1547.13-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.060.0642.8642.76-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.060.0663.3362.470.020.01
IonaMAAC0.060.0677.4277.420.030.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0675.8676.590.030.03
MichiganB100.060.0646.4347.82-0.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Ohio St.B100.060.0673.3372.570.030.03
OregonP120.060.0673.3373.330.030.03
Oregon St.P120.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
UCLAP120.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
UtahP120.060.0677.7878.830.030.03
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0660.7160.320.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0670.0069.450.010.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0335.4836.32-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0363.3363.730.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.030.000.74-0.03-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.030.0383.3382.790.020.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.030.0380.0079.440.020.02
WyomingMWC0.030.0371.4370.300.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0344.0043.19-0.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0337.0437.87-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.030.0389.6689.950.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.030.0368.9769.160.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0325.9325.33-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0376.0075.240.010.01
DenverSum0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0358.6258.810.000.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0344.4444.65-0.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.030.0350.0049.000.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.030.0355.1753.880.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0382.1482.140.020.02
WashingtonP120.030.0353.5752.290.000.00
Washington St.P120.030.0342.8641.43-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.030.0355.1753.660.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0324.0024.96-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.030.0367.8668.400.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.030.0376.6775.470.020.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0363.3363.690.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0360.0060.240.010.01
RutgersB100.030.0333.3332.69-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0368.9767.100.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.030.0396.5595.350.030.03
WisconsinB100.030.0389.6688.010.020.02