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Through games of Nov 24, 2014.


Army

Conference:Pat
Expected RPI:133.1
Current RPI:79
Expected SOS:254
Current SOS:217
Current Record:4-0
Expected Record:19-9
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-3
Current OOC Record:4-0
Expected OOC Record:8-2
Expected OOC RPI:106
Expected OOC SOS:332



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-238.00.01%
25-342.80.15%
24-454.40.76%
23-562.92.40%
22-676.55.44%
21-790.710.61%
20-8107.315.02%
19-9124.118.19%
18-10142.317.21%
17-11160.413.49%
16-12179.99.06%
15-13199.44.41%
14-14219.52.07%
13-15240.60.81%
12-16255.20.23%
11-17271.50.11%
10-18314.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Army.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Air Force (200.2)MWCH84-78W100%0.0
11-15VMI (272.1)SCH92-86W100%0.0
11-19St. Francis NY (207.7)NECA71-74W100%0.0
11-22Marist (271.2)MAACA62-76W100%0.0
11-25Binghamton (303.0)AEH0-088%14.3
11-30Duke (3.0)ACCA0-02%-25.3
12-3Delaware (307.7)CAAA0-073%7.5
12-9Bryant (176.0)NECH0-072%7.0
12-13USC (226.8)P12A0-050%-0.1
12-21Maine (337.8)AEH0-095%19.6
12-31Lafayette (122.1)PatH0-059%2.7
1-3Loyola MD (268.9)PatA0-068%5.5
1-7Lehigh (240.5)PatH0-078%9.3
1-10Navy (270.2)PatH0-086%12.7
1-14Holy Cross (109.3)PatA0-034%-4.8
1-17Bucknell (225.6)PatA0-056%1.8
1-21Colgate (220.9)PatH0-076%8.6
1-26American (116.1)PatA0-036%-4.2
1-29Boston University (107.2)PatH0-057%2.1
1-31Loyola MD (268.9)PatH0-085%12.7
2-4Lehigh (240.5)PatA0-057%2.1
2-7Navy (270.2)PatA0-068%5.6
2-11Holy Cross (109.3)PatH0-058%2.4
2-15Bucknell (225.6)PatH0-077%8.9
2-18Colgate (220.9)PatA0-055%1.5
2-21American (116.1)PatH0-060%3.0
2-25Boston University (107.2)PatA0-034%-5.1
2-28Lafayette (122.1)PatA0-035%-4.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Army's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Army's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Army.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ArmyPat34.3826.43100.0068.0734.389.55
NavyPat0.004.6320.0033.79-0.00-1.50
ColgatePat0.004.6125.0038.98-0.00-1.01
BucknellPat2.084.6020.0036.00-1.25-1.29
Boston UniversityPat0.004.6033.3361.39-0.001.05
AmericanPat0.004.5760.0058.340.000.76
Loyola MDPat0.004.5750.0032.680.00-1.58
LafayettePat0.004.5775.0065.450.001.41
LehighPat0.004.570.0034.02-0.00-1.46
Holy CrossPat0.004.56100.0064.820.001.35
BinghamtonAE0.002.030.0029.69-0.00-0.83
MaristMAAC12.501.880.0035.06-12.50-0.56
VMISC12.501.8850.0038.470.00-0.43
BryantNEC0.001.8550.0055.070.000.19
MaineAE0.001.850.0018.16-0.00-1.18
St. Francis NYNEC12.501.850.0057.84-12.500.29
Air ForceMWC12.501.79100.0047.4712.50-0.09
DelawareCAA0.001.790.0020.30-0.00-1.06
DukeACC0.001.79100.0085.070.001.25
USCP120.001.7940.0027.79-0.00-0.79
ColumbiaIvy0.000.3466.6765.570.000.10
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.3433.3340.10-0.00-0.07
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.3133.3330.55-0.00-0.12
AlbanyAE0.000.3133.3364.13-0.000.09
St. Francis PANEC0.000.3133.3344.46-0.00-0.03
New HampshireAE0.000.280.0041.46-0.00-0.05
UMBCAE0.000.250.0038.08-0.00-0.06
SyracuseACC0.000.2475.0065.950.000.08
Stony BrookAE0.000.2433.3365.20-0.000.07
NJITind0.000.2220.0027.91-0.00-0.10
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.2266.6766.090.000.07
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.2250.0038.810.00-0.05
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.220.0045.75-0.00-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.2225.0042.83-0.00-0.03
WagnerNEC0.000.220.0042.28-0.00-0.03
FairfieldMAAC0.000.2240.0033.57-0.00-0.07
The CitadelSC5.210.190.0026.64-5.21-0.09
CanisiusMAAC0.000.1966.6756.820.000.03
HartfordAE0.000.1975.0040.470.00-0.04
PennIvy0.000.190.0024.67-0.00-0.10
NortheasternCAA0.000.19100.0075.310.000.09
SienaMAAC0.000.1933.3360.10-0.000.04
UMass LowellAE0.000.1960.0041.560.00-0.03
VermontAE0.000.1833.3358.52-0.000.03
HarvardIvy0.000.1650.0067.730.000.06
BrownIvy0.000.1620.0037.46-0.00-0.04
VillanovaBE0.000.16100.0073.380.000.07
Arizona St.P120.000.1575.0056.870.000.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.1540.0038.53-0.00-0.03
CornellIvy0.000.1533.3337.47-0.00-0.04
Notre DameACC0.000.1580.0072.950.000.07
La SalleA100.000.15100.0054.280.000.01
RiderMAAC0.000.1350.0047.540.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.130.0028.50-0.00-0.05
PittsburghACC0.000.1366.6751.570.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.120.0031.34-0.00-0.05
TowsonCAA0.000.1280.0059.570.000.02
ElonCAA0.000.1233.3341.47-0.00-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.1275.0047.460.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.1260.0045.520.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.1275.0069.760.000.05
TempleAmer0.000.1250.0052.920.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.10100.0070.420.000.04
New MexicoMWC0.000.1060.0056.230.000.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.1075.0060.930.000.02
FurmanSC0.000.0933.3323.97-0.00-0.05
WoffordSC0.000.0980.0076.960.000.05
Texas TechB120.000.0966.6745.370.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA2.080.0966.6747.180.69-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0925.0052.27-0.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0950.0054.950.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0933.3347.25-0.00-0.01
YaleIvy0.000.0975.0069.180.000.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0950.0037.880.00-0.02
ColoradoP120.000.0966.6756.740.000.01
ButlerBE0.000.09100.0059.940.000.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.09100.0071.170.000.04
DrexelCAA0.000.0920.0035.62-0.00-0.03
Penn St.B100.000.0980.0043.930.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0975.0073.300.000.04
ToledoMAC0.000.0950.0065.370.000.03
PresbyterianBSth0.000.090.0022.70-0.00-0.05
Boise St.MWC0.000.0775.0063.510.000.02
ChattanoogaSC0.000.070.0046.88-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.000.07100.0064.710.000.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0766.6757.950.000.01
MercerSC0.000.0733.3352.75-0.000.00
NevadaMWC0.000.0725.0042.95-0.00-0.01
SamfordSC0.000.0740.0039.62-0.00-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.07100.0084.910.000.05
San Jose St.MWC0.000.070.0018.96-0.00-0.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.070.0028.12-0.00-0.03
UNLVMWC0.000.0775.0051.180.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0733.3354.64-0.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0675.0072.970.000.03
DePaulBE0.000.06100.0036.280.00-0.02
IonaMAAC0.000.0675.0073.930.000.03
KansasB120.000.0666.6758.820.000.01
KentuckySEC0.000.06100.0087.980.000.05
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0633.3324.20-0.00-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.000.0625.0040.14-0.00-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0666.6733.810.00-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0640.0053.80-0.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.000.060.0034.81-0.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0633.3344.26-0.00-0.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0675.0066.800.000.02
LibertyBSth0.000.0633.3335.09-0.00-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0616.6730.01-0.00-0.02
MichiganB100.000.06100.0070.020.000.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.0666.6753.410.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0666.6746.440.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.000.0675.0069.590.000.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0675.0070.270.000.02
CaliforniaP120.000.0675.0068.180.000.02
CampbellBSth0.000.060.0031.43-0.00-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.0620.0044.69-0.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.06100.0065.880.000.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0680.0072.030.000.03
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0620.0053.69-0.000.00
Ohio St.B100.000.06100.0073.810.000.03
OregonP120.000.0675.0068.720.000.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0666.6745.890.00-0.00
UCLAP120.000.06100.0064.700.000.02
UtahP120.000.0666.6772.280.000.03
North CarolinaACC0.000.06100.0070.800.000.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0320.0029.26-0.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.030.0031.48-0.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0366.6774.460.000.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.0020.03-0.00-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.030.0033.20-0.00-0.01
MarylandB100.000.03100.0066.670.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0366.6746.410.00-0.00
UC DavisBW0.000.03100.0043.480.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.000.03100.0066.880.000.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun2.080.03100.0074.042.080.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0366.6759.480.000.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0350.0034.540.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0320.0035.87-0.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0053.170.000.00
DenverSum0.000.0366.6764.880.000.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.030.0036.18-0.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE2.080.03100.0061.742.080.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.03100.0043.380.00-0.00
RutgersB102.080.0366.6735.400.69-0.01
Seton HallBE0.000.03100.0065.090.000.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0375.0055.490.000.00
ArizonaP120.000.03100.0074.960.000.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0333.3334.36-0.00-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0333.3326.24-0.00-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.03100.0049.160.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0366.6745.370.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.000.03100.0056.070.000.00
Washington St.P120.000.0333.3328.67-0.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0360.0051.710.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.0325.0042.98-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.03100.0051.910.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0081.370.000.02
Miami FLACC0.000.03100.0078.600.000.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.03100.0060.870.000.01
St. John'sBE0.000.03100.0051.940.000.00
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0074.230.000.01
WisconsinB100.000.03100.0084.620.000.02