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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Army

Conference:Pat
Expected RPI:235.0
Current RPI:235
Expected SOS:264
Current SOS:264
Current Record:14-16
Expected Record:14-16
Current Conf Record:11-9
Expected Conf Record:11-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-4
Current OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC RPI:333
Expected OOC SOS:340



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-16235.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Army.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Air Force (251.0)MWCN68-79L0%0.0
11-9The Citadel (345.0)SCN69-84W100%0.0
11-15NJIT (308.0)indH85-89L0%0.0
11-19Delaware (65.0)CAAH74-89L0%0.0
11-24Notre Dame (136.0)ACCA93-60L0%0.0
11-30Houston Baptist (341.0)SlndH72-74L0%0.0
12-4Columbia (130.0)IvyA81-64L0%0.0
12-7St. Francis NY (190.0)NECH67-54W100%0.0
12-13Maine (330.0)AEA80-90W100%0.0
12-22Rutgers (192.0)AmerA75-72L0%0.0
1-2Lafayette (258.0)PatA66-85W100%0.0
1-5Loyola MD (274.0)PatH91-82W100%0.0
1-8Lehigh (236.0)PatA76-79W100%0.0
1-11Navy (321.0)PatA55-60W100%0.0
1-15Holy Cross (127.0)PatH75-78L0%0.0
1-19Bucknell (167.0)PatH74-67W100%0.0
1-22Colgate (256.0)PatA63-66W100%0.0
1-25American (118.0)PatH74-84L0%0.0
1-29Boston University (84.0)PatA86-81L0%0.0
2-1Loyola MD (274.0)PatA71-77W100%0.0
2-5Lehigh (236.0)PatH70-51W100%0.0
2-8Navy (321.0)PatH57-79L0%0.0
2-12Holy Cross (127.0)PatA66-63L0%0.0
2-15Bucknell (167.0)PatA73-61L0%0.0
2-19Colgate (256.0)PatH74-66W100%0.0
2-22American (118.0)PatA58-54L0%0.0
2-26Boston University (84.0)PatH70-71L0%0.0
3-1Lafayette (258.0)PatH87-84W100%0.0
3-5Bucknell (167.0)PatA71-72W100%0.0
3-8Boston University (84.0)PatA91-70L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Army's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Army's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Army.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ArmyPat26.5226.5248.0048.00-1.06-1.06
Boston UniversityPat6.046.0467.7467.742.142.14
BucknellPat5.945.9455.5655.560.660.66
AmericanPat4.524.5260.0060.000.900.90
LafayettePat4.494.4935.7135.71-1.28-1.28
Holy CrossPat4.444.4456.6756.670.590.59
ColgatePat4.444.4442.8642.86-0.63-0.63
NavyPat4.384.3825.9325.93-2.11-2.11
LehighPat4.364.3646.6746.67-0.29-0.29
Loyola MDPat4.354.3537.0437.04-1.13-1.13
ColumbiaIvy1.881.8858.6258.620.320.32
NJITind1.861.8633.3333.33-0.62-0.62
St. Francis NYNEC1.781.7856.6756.670.240.24
MaineAE1.731.7318.5218.52-1.09-1.09
The CitadelSC1.721.7214.2914.29-1.23-1.23
DelawareCAA1.691.6972.7372.730.770.77
Notre DameACC1.691.6945.1645.16-0.16-0.16
Air ForceMWC1.671.6733.3333.33-0.56-0.56
Houston BaptistSlnd1.671.6711.5411.54-1.28-1.28
RutgersAmer1.671.6732.2632.26-0.59-0.59
St. Francis PANEC0.390.3932.2632.26-0.14-0.14
UMBCAE0.340.3427.5927.59-0.15-0.15
AlbanyAE0.320.3256.2556.250.040.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.250.2550.0050.000.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.230.2323.3323.33-0.12-0.12
UMass LowellAE0.230.2333.3333.33-0.08-0.08
PrincetonIvy0.220.2270.3770.370.090.09
BryantNEC0.210.2154.8454.840.020.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.210.2116.1316.13-0.14-0.14
ConnecticutAmer0.210.2176.4776.470.110.11
LIU BrooklynNEC0.210.2131.0331.03-0.08-0.08
Stony BrookAE0.200.2068.7568.750.080.08
CornellIvy0.190.193.703.70-0.18-0.18
FairfieldMAAC0.190.1921.8821.88-0.11-0.11
HarvardIvy0.180.1886.2186.210.130.13
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.170.1717.8617.86-0.11-0.11
HartfordAE0.160.1651.5251.520.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.160.1664.5264.520.050.05
NortheasternCAA0.150.1534.3834.38-0.05-0.05
New HampshireAE0.140.1417.2417.24-0.09-0.09
PennIvy0.140.1428.5728.57-0.06-0.06
YaleIvy0.140.1451.8551.850.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.140.1451.5251.520.000.00
TowsonCAA0.140.1467.7467.740.050.05
Robert MorrisNEC0.130.1361.7661.760.030.03
CanisiusMAAC0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.130.1372.7372.730.060.06
George WashingtonA100.130.1375.0075.000.060.06
Seton HallBE0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
St. John'sBE0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
Miami FLACC0.110.1151.5251.520.000.00
VirginiaACC0.110.1182.3582.350.070.07
SyracuseACC0.110.1184.3884.380.070.07
BrownIvy0.110.1151.8551.850.000.00
FordhamA100.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
HofstraCAA0.110.1130.3030.30-0.04-0.04
HoustonAmer0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.100.1071.8871.880.050.05
Ohio St.B100.100.1073.5373.530.050.05
MarylandACC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Fresno St.MWC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TulaneCUSA0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.090.0934.4834.48-0.03-0.03
WoffordSC0.090.0958.6258.620.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.090.0938.4638.46-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
MichiganB100.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
WagnerNEC0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
VillanovaBE0.080.0887.5087.500.060.06
LouisvilleAmer0.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
PittsburghACC0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
South FloridaAmer0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0783.8783.870.050.05
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0624.0024.00-0.03-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0646.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSlnd0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0687.1087.100.040.04
San Jose St.MWC0.060.0617.2417.24-0.04-0.04
UNLVMWC0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
VermontAE0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
WyomingMWC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
VMIBSth0.060.0655.5655.560.010.01
Appalachian St.SC0.060.0619.2319.23-0.04-0.04
DavidsonSC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
FurmanSC0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Georgia SouthernSC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
ElonSC0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
RichmondA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
George MasonA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
MemphisAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
MinnesotaB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
RiderMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
SMUAmer0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
TempleAmer0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0578.5778.570.030.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
ButlerBE0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0393.1093.100.030.03
TexasB120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Texas TechB120.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
NebraskaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
SamfordSC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
IdahoWAC0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Michigan St.B100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
DaytonA100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
DukeACC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
IndianaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
IowaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
LibertyBSth0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00