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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.


Army

Conference:Pat
Expected RPI:293.1
Current RPI:299
Expected SOS:328
Current SOS:336
Current Record:9-13
Expected Record:12-16
Current Conf Record:3-5
Expected Conf Record:6-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.33%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-7
Current OOC Record:6-8
Expected OOC Record:6-8
Expected OOC RPI:331
Expected OOC SOS:344



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-13244.70.40%
14-14264.34.39%
13-15279.418.06%
12-16290.933.39%
11-17300.429.76%
10-18310.012.17%
9-19319.61.82%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Army.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Air Force (174.7)MWCA87-71L0%0.0
11-12The Citadel (331.4)SCN72-83L0%0.0
11-19Central Connecticut (236.3)NECA67-51L0%0.0
11-22Bryant (334.0)NECH69-65W100%0.0
11-26Yale (117.5)IvyH75-84L0%0.0
11-30NJ Inst of Technology (294.9)GWCH53-54L0%0.0
12-3Binghamton (343.4)AEA50-70W100%0.0
12-7Marist (276.6)MAACA59-56L0%0.0
12-10La Salle (69.1)A10A76-64L0%0.0
12-18Texas Pan American (309.3)GWCH61-59W100%0.0
12-21Dartmouth (320.3)IvyH67-64W100%0.0
12-28Presbyterian (253.5)BSthA71-64L0%0.0
12-31St. Francis NY (188.7)NECH79-70W100%0.0
1-3Longwood (311.5)indH96-77W100%0.0
1-7Bucknell (71.1)PatH59-75L0%0.0
1-11Lafayette (210.2)PatA75-63L0%0.0
1-14Navy (318.8)PatA62-75W100%0.0
1-18Colgate (296.0)PatH91-75W100%0.0
1-21American (150.9)PatA67-55L0%0.0
1-25Holy Cross (226.1)PatH74-68W100%0.0
1-29Lehigh (109.7)PatA83-64L0%0.0
2-4Bucknell (71.1)PatA81-68L0%0.0
2-8Lafayette (210.2)PatH0-052%0.5
2-11Navy (318.8)PatH0-074%7.2
2-15Colgate (296.0)PatA0-053%0.8
2-18American (150.9)PatH0-039%-2.9
2-22Holy Cross (226.1)PatA0-034%-4.6
2-25Lehigh (109.7)PatH0-016%-10.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Army's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Army's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Army.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ArmyPat26.2526.3239.7739.34-5.37-5.61
ColgatePat2.944.4831.8229.94-1.07-1.80
BucknellPat5.054.4571.4373.152.162.06
LafayettePat2.844.4240.9140.64-0.52-0.83
Holy CrossPat2.794.3842.8642.74-0.40-0.64
NavyPat2.784.3810.0013.22-2.22-3.22
LehighPat2.724.3572.7373.641.242.06
AmericanPat2.674.3263.6462.570.731.09
DartmouthIvy2.642.1015.0017.79-1.85-1.36
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC2.532.0729.4135.81-1.04-0.59
BryantNEC2.592.018.7011.23-2.14-1.56
St. Francis NYNEC2.532.0159.0957.940.460.32
YaleIvy2.481.9770.5961.721.020.46
Longwoodind2.441.9531.5828.92-0.90-0.82
La SalleA102.471.9469.5767.780.970.69
Central ConnecticutNEC2.531.9442.8643.69-0.36-0.24
BinghamtonAE2.421.910.004.17-2.42-1.75
MaristMAAC2.421.9131.8231.05-0.88-0.72
Texas Pan AmericanGWC2.401.8920.0025.56-1.44-0.92
PresbyterianBSth2.331.8538.1041.57-0.55-0.31
Air ForceMWC2.331.8244.4439.85-0.26-0.37
The CitadelSC2.271.795.008.04-2.05-1.50
QuinnipiacNEC0.410.4756.5257.150.050.07
St. Francis PANEC0.440.4621.7422.76-0.25-0.25
ColumbiaIvy0.300.4155.0054.800.030.04
CornellIvy0.300.3536.8441.45-0.08-0.06
Sacred HeartNEC0.320.3444.0045.89-0.04-0.03
WagnerNEC0.360.3482.6184.570.230.24
BrownIvy0.440.3227.2723.80-0.20-0.17
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.370.328.7012.13-0.30-0.24
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.300.3126.0928.60-0.14-0.13
PrincetonIvy0.210.2547.3752.87-0.010.01
PennsylvaniaIvy0.210.2554.5556.840.020.03
HartfordAE0.310.2517.3920.97-0.20-0.15
MonmouthNEC0.250.2528.0028.91-0.11-0.11
AlbanyAE0.260.2560.0060.420.050.05
New HampshireAE0.250.2535.0038.58-0.08-0.06
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.210.2220.0019.96-0.13-0.13
Long IslandNEC0.210.2270.8371.050.090.09
HarvardIvy0.220.1990.4887.910.180.15
Robert MorrisNEC0.200.1868.0070.030.070.07
FordhamA100.150.1840.9134.50-0.03-0.06
Chicago St.GWC0.180.174.769.95-0.16-0.14
North DakotaGWC0.120.1733.3341.31-0.04-0.03
Virginia Military InstBSth0.220.1645.0044.15-0.02-0.02
ElonSC0.220.1650.0047.590.00-0.01
VermontAE0.220.1660.0062.490.040.04
VanderbiltSEC0.210.1669.5765.870.080.05
MaineAE0.150.1650.0049.730.00-0.00
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.150.1613.6416.35-0.11-0.10
St. Peter'sMAAC0.150.1521.7424.58-0.08-0.08
Boston UniversityAE0.240.1548.0051.88-0.010.01
RichmondA100.150.1550.0048.490.00-0.00
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.120.1447.8347.87-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistGWC0.120.1425.0028.52-0.06-0.06
Utah ValleyGWC0.120.1454.5557.690.010.02
Seton HallBE0.230.1365.2263.740.070.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.1368.1869.680.040.05
College of CharlestonSC0.110.1358.3359.980.020.03
ManhattanMAAC0.210.1368.0069.070.080.05
SienaMAAC0.100.1345.4545.55-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.160.1350.0051.730.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.210.1317.3919.81-0.13-0.08
St. John'sBE0.150.1343.4840.28-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.100.1327.2727.21-0.05-0.06
RadfordBSth0.100.138.7013.10-0.08-0.09
MassachusettsA100.160.1373.9168.580.080.05
HofstraCAA0.150.1232.0035.39-0.05-0.04
Loyola MDMAAC0.150.1277.2773.450.080.06
SyracuseBE0.150.1295.8392.010.140.10
Texas ChristianMWC0.110.1057.1449.540.02-0.00
TulaneCUSA0.110.1061.9058.590.030.02
San Diego St.MWC0.110.1085.7178.050.080.06
DavidsonSC0.110.1076.1976.760.060.05
FurmanSC0.160.1047.6248.83-0.01-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.110.1080.9577.380.070.05
MissouriB120.100.1091.3087.180.090.07
Charleston SouthernBSth0.160.1055.0060.330.020.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.160.1072.2271.970.070.04
High PointBSth0.160.1031.8232.75-0.06-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.110.1040.9138.38-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.110.0936.3638.48-0.03-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.100.0954.5554.300.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.110.0956.5253.770.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.100.0930.4326.44-0.04-0.04
ProvidenceBE0.100.0956.5250.270.010.00
Michigan St.B100.100.0976.1972.910.050.04
NiagaraMAAC0.100.0937.5041.54-0.03-0.02
HowardMEAC0.100.0918.1822.22-0.06-0.05
Morehead St.OVC0.150.0945.4546.99-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.100.0947.8350.65-0.000.00
RiderMAAC0.150.0937.5038.52-0.04-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.0962.5062.490.020.02
VillanovaBE0.100.0945.4546.08-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.060.0742.8641.13-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0766.6760.800.020.01
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.060.0782.6181.440.040.04
New MexicoMWC0.060.0781.8281.030.040.04
WyomingMWC0.060.0776.1970.730.030.03
GonzagaWCC0.060.0781.8281.490.040.04
RutgersBE0.120.0750.0046.810.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0727.2735.02-0.03-0.02
Georgia SouthernSC0.050.0740.0041.30-0.01-0.01
MercerASun0.050.0770.8371.640.020.03
NC GreensboroSC0.110.0734.7833.46-0.03-0.02
Seattleind0.000.0723.5333.28-0.00-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0710.0014.93-0.05-0.05
South Carolina UpstateASun0.110.0754.5556.090.010.01
Texas ArlingtonSlnd0.110.0776.1975.940.060.03
WoffordSC0.110.0759.0957.930.020.01
NorthwesternB100.110.0661.9055.140.030.01
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0634.7837.24-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.100.0656.0055.650.010.01
ConnecticutBE0.050.0668.1863.990.020.02
WinthropBSth0.050.0634.7834.61-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.110.0620.8320.60-0.06-0.04
James MadisonCAA0.100.0640.0040.18-0.02-0.01
Florida AtlanticSB0.050.0636.3639.72-0.01-0.01
George MasonCAA0.100.0676.0072.500.050.03
IonaMAAC0.050.0679.1780.100.030.04
Iowa St.B120.050.0673.9168.430.020.02
MinnesotaB100.100.0669.5761.310.040.01
Penn St.B100.050.0641.6738.67-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.100.0666.6768.050.030.02
William & MaryCAA0.050.0612.5013.44-0.04-0.05
WisconsinB100.050.0675.0073.970.020.03
Notre DameBE0.100.0665.2262.650.030.02
George WashingtonA100.050.0634.7832.08-0.01-0.02
TempleA100.050.0677.2775.060.030.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0317.3924.41-0.04-0.02
ColoradoP120.060.0366.6762.650.020.01
DrakeMVC0.060.0352.1750.090.000.00
FloridaSEC0.060.0382.6177.630.040.02
Wake ForestACC0.060.0347.8343.66-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.060.0341.6740.61-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SC0.000.0335.0039.29-0.00-0.01
Brigham YoungWCC0.060.0375.0076.000.030.02
ClemsonACC0.050.0350.0048.360.00-0.00
DenverSB0.050.0370.8372.230.020.01
DePaulBE0.050.0350.0042.830.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0350.0048.900.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.050.0361.9067.230.010.01
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.060.0334.7835.20-0.02-0.01
NevadaWAC0.060.0380.9576.420.040.02
Ohio St.B100.050.0386.9685.460.040.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0335.0040.78-0.02-0.01
SamfordSC0.050.0333.3335.26-0.02-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0345.4544.66-0.00-0.00
Texas St.Slnd0.050.0322.2227.62-0.03-0.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0338.1040.81-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.060.0381.8276.800.040.02
CincinnatiBE0.050.0369.5765.470.020.01
DukeACC0.050.0386.3683.090.040.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0334.7838.77-0.00-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0334.7838.42-0.00-0.01
NC AshevilleBSth0.050.0368.1867.640.020.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0340.9139.56-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0328.5734.20-0.02-0.01
DrexelCAA0.050.0379.1778.100.030.02
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.050.0335.0035.31-0.02-0.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0395.8392.570.050.03
South FloridaBE0.050.0354.5548.600.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.050.0366.6768.550.020.01
Southern UtahSum0.050.0345.4544.30-0.00-0.00
UC DavisBW0.050.030.005.37-0.05-0.03
CharlotteA100.050.0350.0049.450.00-0.00
DaytonA100.050.0360.8760.960.010.01
DuquesneA100.050.0359.0956.350.010.00
NortheasternCAA0.050.0347.8348.56-0.00-0.00
PittsburghBE0.050.0360.8758.160.010.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0360.0059.060.000.01
St. LouisA100.000.0377.2777.670.000.02
TowsonCAA0.050.034.005.26-0.04-0.03
XavierA100.050.0365.2263.740.010.01