Army

Conference:	Pat
Expected RPI:	205.0
Current RPI:	205
Expected SOS:	277
Current SOS:	277
Current Record:	15-15
Expected Record:	15-15
Current Conf Record:	9-7
Expected Conf Record:	9-7
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	13-5
Current OOC Record:	6-8
Expected OOC Record:	6-8
Expected OOC RPI:	277
Expected OOC SOS:	337

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
15-15	205.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Army.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Air Force (80.0)	MWC	N	65-76	L	0%
11-11	Virginia Military Inst (302.0)	BSth	N	74-80	W	100%
11-16	Binghamton (336.0)	AE	H	85-76	W	100%
11-20	St. Francis NY (207.0)	NEC	A	59-67	W	100%
11-24	Yale (198.0)	Ivy	A	86-83	L	0%
12-1	Bryant (158.0)	NEC	A	70-59	L	0%
12-4	Marist (262.0)	MAAC	H	91-57	W	100%
12-8	Penn St. (186.0)	B10	A	78-70	L	0%
12-11	NJ Inst of Technology (300.0)	GWC	A	69-67	L	0%
12-14	Maine (267.0)	AE	H	96-67	W	100%
12-29	Texas A&M (102.0)	SEC	A	61-55	L	0%
12-31	Houston Baptist (310.0)	GWC	A	86-95	W	100%
1-5	Columbia (273.0)	Ivy	H	52-64	L	0%
1-8	Dartmouth (294.0)	Ivy	A	75-58	L	0%
1-12	Bucknell (51.0)	Pat	A	76-55	L	0%
1-16	Lafayette (153.0)	Pat	H	77-54	W	100%
1-20	Navy (308.0)	Pat	H	50-59	L	0%
1-23	Colgate (256.0)	Pat	A	93-90	L	0%
1-26	American (278.0)	Pat	H	77-64	W	100%
1-30	Holy Cross (251.0)	Pat	A	66-80	W	100%
2-3	Lehigh (107.0)	Pat	H	76-85	L	0%
2-9	Bucknell (51.0)	Pat	H	58-60	L	0%
2-13	Lafayette (153.0)	Pat	A	68-85	W	100%
2-16	Navy (308.0)	Pat	A	55-56	W	100%
2-20	Colgate (256.0)	Pat	H	77-63	W	100%
2-23	American (278.0)	Pat	A	58-72	W	100%
2-27	Holy Cross (251.0)	Pat	H	69-62	W	100%
3-2	Lehigh (107.0)	Pat	A	81-75	L	0%
3-6	American (278.0)	Pat	H	65-44	W	100%
3-9	Bucknell (51.0)	Pat	A	78-70	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Army's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Army's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Army.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Army	Pat	26.43	26.43	52.99	52.99	1.58	1.58
Bucknell	Pat	5.93	5.93	82.76	82.76	3.89	3.89
American	Pat	5.73	5.73	37.04	37.04	-1.49	-1.49
Lafayette	Pat	4.35	4.35	58.06	58.06	0.70	0.70
Colgate	Pat	4.33	4.33	33.33	33.33	-1.44	-1.44
Holy Cross	Pat	4.26	4.26	42.86	42.86	-0.61	-0.61
Navy	Pat	4.22	4.22	21.43	21.43	-2.41	-2.41
Lehigh	Pat	4.21	4.21	66.67	66.67	1.40	1.40
Columbia	Ivy	2.08	2.08	36.00	36.00	-0.58	-0.58
Dartmouth	Ivy	2.03	2.03	26.92	26.92	-0.94	-0.94
Bryant	NEC	1.90	1.90	62.07	62.07	0.46	0.46
Marist	MAAC	1.89	1.89	33.33	33.33	-0.63	-0.63
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	1.89	1.89	45.83	45.83	-0.16	-0.16
Yale	Ivy	1.88	1.88	39.29	39.29	-0.40	-0.40
Binghamton	AE	1.86	1.86	7.14	7.14	-1.59	-1.59
Maine	AE	1.84	1.84	35.71	35.71	-0.52	-0.52
St. Francis NY	NEC	1.83	1.83	41.38	41.38	-0.32	-0.32
Houston Baptist	GWC	1.79	1.79	40.74	40.74	-0.33	-0.33
Penn St.	B10	1.74	1.74	30.00	30.00	-0.70	-0.70
Texas A&M	SEC	1.70	1.70	53.12	53.12	0.11	0.11
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	1.69	1.69	40.74	40.74	-0.31	-0.31
Air Force	MWC	1.67	1.67	51.85	51.85	0.06	0.06
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.43	0.43	17.24	17.24	-0.28	-0.28
Cornell	Ivy	0.43	0.43	40.00	40.00	-0.09	-0.09
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.38	0.38	29.03	29.03	-0.16	-0.16
New Hampshire	AE	0.37	0.37	28.57	28.57	-0.16	-0.16
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.33	0.33	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.31	0.31	59.26	59.26	0.06	0.06
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.31	0.31	56.25	56.25	0.04	0.04
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.30	0.30	31.03	31.03	-0.12	-0.12
Brown	Ivy	0.30	0.30	44.44	44.44	-0.03	-0.03
Albany	AE	0.28	0.28	70.59	70.59	0.11	0.11
Harvard	Ivy	0.24	0.24	66.67	66.67	0.08	0.08
Hartford	AE	0.23	0.23	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.22	0.22	22.58	22.58	-0.12	-0.12
Monmouth	NEC	0.22	0.22	32.26	32.26	-0.08	-0.08
Long Island	NEC	0.22	0.22	60.61	60.61	0.05	0.05
Stony Brook	AE	0.20	0.20	76.67	76.67	0.11	0.11
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.20	0.20	23.33	23.33	-0.11	-0.11
Providence	BE	0.20	0.20	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Vermont	AE	0.17	0.17	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
San Francisco	WCC	0.17	0.17	44.83	44.83	-0.02	-0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.17	0.17	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.17	0.17	69.70	69.70	0.07	0.07
Siena	MAAC	0.16	0.16	25.00	25.00	-0.08	-0.08
Minnesota	B10	0.16	0.16	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.16	0.16	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Chicago St.	GWC	0.16	0.16	25.00	25.00	-0.08	-0.08
Utah Valley	GWC	0.16	0.16	35.71	35.71	-0.04	-0.04
New Orleans	ind	0.16	0.16	18.18	18.18	-0.10	-0.10
Elon	SC	0.14	0.14	63.33	63.33	0.04	0.04
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.14	0.14	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.13	0.13	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Purdue	B10	0.13	0.13	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.13	0.13	69.70	69.70	0.05	0.05
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.13	0.13	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Longwood	BSth	0.12	0.12	19.35	19.35	-0.07	-0.07
St. John's	BE	0.12	0.12	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Boston University	AE	0.11	0.11	58.62	58.62	0.02	0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.11	0.11	7.14	7.14	-0.10	-0.10
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.11	0.11	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Fairfield	MAAC	0.11	0.11	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.11	0.11	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Michigan	B10	0.11	0.11	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Illinois	B10	0.11	0.11	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
La Salle	A10	0.11	0.11	70.00	70.00	0.04	0.04
Kentucky	SEC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.09	0.09	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Nevada	MWC	0.09	0.09	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Manhattan	MAAC	0.09	0.09	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.09	0.09	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.09	0.09	16.67	16.67	-0.06	-0.06
Florida	SEC	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.08	0.08	80.65	80.65	0.05	0.05
Hampton	MEAC	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.08	0.08	20.69	20.69	-0.05	-0.05
Kansas	B12	0.08	0.08	85.29	85.29	0.06	0.06
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.08	0.08	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.08	0.08	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
George Mason	CAA	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.08	0.08	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	14.29	14.29	-0.05	-0.05
Villanova	BE	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Boise St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Campbell	BSth	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.06	0.06	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Fresno St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
High Point	BSth	0.06	0.06	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Liberty	BSth	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.06	0.06	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
New Mexico	MWC	0.06	0.06	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Radford	BSth	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
San Diego St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
The Citadel	SC	0.06	0.06	21.43	21.43	-0.03	-0.03
Wyoming	MWC	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Baylor	B12	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Fordham	A10	0.06	0.06	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
North Texas	SB	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Pittsburgh	BE	0.06	0.06	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.06	0.06	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
West Virginia	B12	0.06	0.06	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.06	0.06	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.06	0.06	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Christian	B12	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.06	0.06	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Tulane	CUSA	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.06	0.06	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Syracuse	BE	0.05	0.05	74.29	74.29	0.03	0.03
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.05	28.12	28.12	-0.02	-0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Maryland	ACC	0.05	0.05	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Arizona St.	P12	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.03	0.03	42.31	42.31	-0.00	-0.00
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
George Washington	A10	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Hawaii	BW	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Montana St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Oregon	P12	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.02	0.02
Pepperdine	WCC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
UC Riverside	BW	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.02	0.02
Winthrop	BSth	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
St. Mary's	WCC	0.03	0.03	81.25	81.25	0.02	0.02
Western Illinois	Sum	0.03	0.03	71.43	71.43	0.01	0.01
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
College of Charleston	SC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Houston	CUSA	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	70.37	70.37	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.03	0.03	85.19	85.19	0.02	0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Troy	SB	0.03	0.03	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00