Army

Conference:	Pat
Expected RPI:	293.1
Current RPI:	299
Expected SOS:	328
Current SOS:	336
Current Record:	9-13
Expected Record:	12-16
Current Conf Record:	3-5
Expected Conf Record:	6-8
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.33%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	10-7
Current OOC Record:	6-8
Expected OOC Record:	6-8
Expected OOC RPI:	331
Expected OOC SOS:	344

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
15-13	244.7	0.40%
14-14	264.3	4.39%
13-15	279.4	18.06%
12-16	290.9	33.39%
11-17	300.4	29.76%
10-18	310.0	12.17%
9-19	319.6	1.82%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Army.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Air Force (174.7)	MWC	A	87-71	L	0%	0.0
11-12	The Citadel (331.4)	SC	N	72-83	L	0%	0.0
11-19	Central Connecticut (236.3)	NEC	A	67-51	L	0%	0.0
11-22	Bryant (334.0)	NEC	H	69-65	W	100%	0.0
11-26	Yale (117.5)	Ivy	H	75-84	L	0%	0.0
11-30	NJ Inst of Technology (294.9)	GWC	H	53-54	L	0%	0.0
12-3	Binghamton (343.4)	AE	A	50-70	W	100%	0.0
12-7	Marist (276.6)	MAAC	A	59-56	L	0%	0.0
12-10	La Salle (69.1)	A10	A	76-64	L	0%	0.0
12-18	Texas Pan American (309.3)	GWC	H	61-59	W	100%	0.0
12-21	Dartmouth (320.3)	Ivy	H	67-64	W	100%	0.0
12-28	Presbyterian (253.5)	BSth	A	71-64	L	0%	0.0
12-31	St. Francis NY (188.7)	NEC	H	79-70	W	100%	0.0
1-3	Longwood (311.5)	ind	H	96-77	W	100%	0.0
1-7	Bucknell (71.1)	Pat	H	59-75	L	0%	0.0
1-11	Lafayette (210.2)	Pat	A	75-63	L	0%	0.0
1-14	Navy (318.8)	Pat	A	62-75	W	100%	0.0
1-18	Colgate (296.0)	Pat	H	91-75	W	100%	0.0
1-21	American (150.9)	Pat	A	67-55	L	0%	0.0
1-25	Holy Cross (226.1)	Pat	H	74-68	W	100%	0.0
1-29	Lehigh (109.7)	Pat	A	83-64	L	0%	0.0
2-4	Bucknell (71.1)	Pat	A	81-68	L	0%	0.0
2-8	Lafayette (210.2)	Pat	H	0-0		52%	0.5
2-11	Navy (318.8)	Pat	H	0-0		74%	7.2
2-15	Colgate (296.0)	Pat	A	0-0		53%	0.8
2-18	American (150.9)	Pat	H	0-0		39%	-2.9
2-22	Holy Cross (226.1)	Pat	A	0-0		34%	-4.6
2-25	Lehigh (109.7)	Pat	H	0-0		16%	-10.9

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Army's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Army's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Army.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Army	Pat	26.25	26.32	39.77	39.34	-5.37	-5.61
Colgate	Pat	2.94	4.48	31.82	29.94	-1.07	-1.80
Bucknell	Pat	5.05	4.45	71.43	73.15	2.16	2.06
Lafayette	Pat	2.84	4.42	40.91	40.64	-0.52	-0.83
Holy Cross	Pat	2.79	4.38	42.86	42.74	-0.40	-0.64
Navy	Pat	2.78	4.38	10.00	13.22	-2.22	-3.22
Lehigh	Pat	2.72	4.35	72.73	73.64	1.24	2.06
American	Pat	2.67	4.32	63.64	62.57	0.73	1.09
Dartmouth	Ivy	2.64	2.10	15.00	17.79	-1.85	-1.36
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	2.53	2.07	29.41	35.81	-1.04	-0.59
Bryant	NEC	2.59	2.01	8.70	11.23	-2.14	-1.56
St. Francis NY	NEC	2.53	2.01	59.09	57.94	0.46	0.32
Yale	Ivy	2.48	1.97	70.59	61.72	1.02	0.46
Longwood	ind	2.44	1.95	31.58	28.92	-0.90	-0.82
La Salle	A10	2.47	1.94	69.57	67.78	0.97	0.69
Central Connecticut	NEC	2.53	1.94	42.86	43.69	-0.36	-0.24
Binghamton	AE	2.42	1.91	0.00	4.17	-2.42	-1.75
Marist	MAAC	2.42	1.91	31.82	31.05	-0.88	-0.72
Texas Pan American	GWC	2.40	1.89	20.00	25.56	-1.44	-0.92
Presbyterian	BSth	2.33	1.85	38.10	41.57	-0.55	-0.31
Air Force	MWC	2.33	1.82	44.44	39.85	-0.26	-0.37
The Citadel	SC	2.27	1.79	5.00	8.04	-2.05	-1.50
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.41	0.47	56.52	57.15	0.05	0.07
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.44	0.46	21.74	22.76	-0.25	-0.25
Columbia	Ivy	0.30	0.41	55.00	54.80	0.03	0.04
Cornell	Ivy	0.30	0.35	36.84	41.45	-0.08	-0.06
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.32	0.34	44.00	45.89	-0.04	-0.03
Wagner	NEC	0.36	0.34	82.61	84.57	0.23	0.24
Brown	Ivy	0.44	0.32	27.27	23.80	-0.20	-0.17
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.37	0.32	8.70	12.13	-0.30	-0.24
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.30	0.31	26.09	28.60	-0.14	-0.13
Princeton	Ivy	0.21	0.25	47.37	52.87	-0.01	0.01
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.21	0.25	54.55	56.84	0.02	0.03
Hartford	AE	0.31	0.25	17.39	20.97	-0.20	-0.15
Monmouth	NEC	0.25	0.25	28.00	28.91	-0.11	-0.11
Albany	AE	0.26	0.25	60.00	60.42	0.05	0.05
New Hampshire	AE	0.25	0.25	35.00	38.58	-0.08	-0.06
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.21	0.22	20.00	19.96	-0.13	-0.13
Long Island	NEC	0.21	0.22	70.83	71.05	0.09	0.09
Harvard	Ivy	0.22	0.19	90.48	87.91	0.18	0.15
Robert Morris	NEC	0.20	0.18	68.00	70.03	0.07	0.07
Fordham	A10	0.15	0.18	40.91	34.50	-0.03	-0.06
Chicago St.	GWC	0.18	0.17	4.76	9.95	-0.16	-0.14
North Dakota	GWC	0.12	0.17	33.33	41.31	-0.04	-0.03
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.22	0.16	45.00	44.15	-0.02	-0.02
Elon	SC	0.22	0.16	50.00	47.59	0.00	-0.01
Vermont	AE	0.22	0.16	60.00	62.49	0.04	0.04
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.21	0.16	69.57	65.87	0.08	0.05
Maine	AE	0.15	0.16	50.00	49.73	0.00	-0.00
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.15	0.16	13.64	16.35	-0.11	-0.10
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.15	0.15	21.74	24.58	-0.08	-0.08
Boston University	AE	0.24	0.15	48.00	51.88	-0.01	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.15	0.15	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.12	0.14	47.83	47.87	-0.01	-0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.12	0.14	25.00	28.52	-0.06	-0.06
Utah Valley	GWC	0.12	0.14	54.55	57.69	0.01	0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.23	0.13	65.22	63.74	0.07	0.04
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.10	0.13	68.18	69.68	0.04	0.05
College of Charleston	SC	0.11	0.13	58.33	59.98	0.02	0.03
Manhattan	MAAC	0.21	0.13	68.00	69.07	0.08	0.05
Siena	MAAC	0.10	0.13	45.45	45.55	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.16	0.13	50.00	51.73	0.00	0.00
Canisius	MAAC	0.21	0.13	17.39	19.81	-0.13	-0.08
St. John's	BE	0.15	0.13	43.48	40.28	-0.02	-0.02
Liberty	BSth	0.10	0.13	27.27	27.21	-0.05	-0.06
Radford	BSth	0.10	0.13	8.70	13.10	-0.08	-0.09
Massachusetts	A10	0.16	0.13	73.91	68.58	0.08	0.05
Hofstra	CAA	0.15	0.12	32.00	35.39	-0.05	-0.04
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.15	0.12	77.27	73.45	0.08	0.06
Syracuse	BE	0.15	0.12	95.83	92.01	0.14	0.10
Texas Christian	MWC	0.11	0.10	57.14	49.54	0.02	-0.00
Tulane	CUSA	0.11	0.10	61.90	58.59	0.03	0.02
San Diego St.	MWC	0.11	0.10	85.71	78.05	0.08	0.06
Davidson	SC	0.11	0.10	76.19	76.76	0.06	0.05
Furman	SC	0.16	0.10	47.62	48.83	-0.01	-0.00
Georgetown	BE	0.11	0.10	80.95	77.38	0.07	0.05
Missouri	B12	0.10	0.10	91.30	87.18	0.09	0.07
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.16	0.10	55.00	60.33	0.02	0.02
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.16	0.10	72.22	71.97	0.07	0.04
High Point	BSth	0.16	0.10	31.82	32.75	-0.06	-0.03
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.11	0.10	40.91	38.38	-0.02	-0.02
Hampton	MEAC	0.11	0.09	36.36	38.48	-0.03	-0.02
Fairfield	MAAC	0.10	0.09	54.55	54.30	0.01	0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.11	0.09	56.52	53.77	0.01	0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.10	0.09	30.43	26.44	-0.04	-0.04
Providence	BE	0.10	0.09	56.52	50.27	0.01	0.00
Michigan St.	B10	0.10	0.09	76.19	72.91	0.05	0.04
Niagara	MAAC	0.10	0.09	37.50	41.54	-0.03	-0.02
Howard	MEAC	0.10	0.09	18.18	22.22	-0.06	-0.05
Morehead St.	OVC	0.15	0.09	45.45	46.99	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.10	0.09	47.83	50.65	-0.00	0.00
Rider	MAAC	0.15	0.09	37.50	38.52	-0.04	-0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.10	0.09	62.50	62.49	0.02	0.02
Villanova	BE	0.10	0.09	45.45	46.08	-0.01	-0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.06	0.07	42.86	41.13	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.06	0.07	66.67	60.80	0.02	0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.06	0.07	82.61	81.44	0.04	0.04
New Mexico	MWC	0.06	0.07	81.82	81.03	0.04	0.04
Wyoming	MWC	0.06	0.07	76.19	70.73	0.03	0.03
Gonzaga	WCC	0.06	0.07	81.82	81.49	0.04	0.04
Rutgers	BE	0.12	0.07	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.06	0.07	27.27	35.02	-0.03	-0.02
Georgia Southern	SC	0.05	0.07	40.00	41.30	-0.01	-0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.05	0.07	70.83	71.64	0.02	0.03
NC Greensboro	SC	0.11	0.07	34.78	33.46	-0.03	-0.02
Seattle	ind	0.00	0.07	23.53	33.28	-0.00	-0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.06	0.07	10.00	14.93	-0.05	-0.05
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.11	0.07	54.55	56.09	0.01	0.01
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.11	0.07	76.19	75.94	0.06	0.03
Wofford	SC	0.11	0.07	59.09	57.93	0.02	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.11	0.06	61.90	55.14	0.03	0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.05	0.06	34.78	37.24	-0.02	-0.02
Campbell	BSth	0.10	0.06	56.00	55.65	0.01	0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.06	68.18	63.99	0.02	0.02
Winthrop	BSth	0.05	0.06	34.78	34.61	-0.02	-0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.11	0.06	20.83	20.60	-0.06	-0.04
James Madison	CAA	0.10	0.06	40.00	40.18	-0.02	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.05	0.06	36.36	39.72	-0.01	-0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.10	0.06	76.00	72.50	0.05	0.03
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.06	79.17	80.10	0.03	0.04
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.06	73.91	68.43	0.02	0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.10	0.06	69.57	61.31	0.04	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.06	41.67	38.67	-0.01	-0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.10	0.06	66.67	68.05	0.03	0.02
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.06	12.50	13.44	-0.04	-0.05
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.06	75.00	73.97	0.02	0.03
Notre Dame	BE	0.10	0.06	65.22	62.65	0.03	0.02
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.06	34.78	32.08	-0.01	-0.02
Temple	A10	0.05	0.06	77.27	75.06	0.03	0.03
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.06	0.03	17.39	24.41	-0.04	-0.02
Colorado	P12	0.06	0.03	66.67	62.65	0.02	0.01
Drake	MVC	0.06	0.03	52.17	50.09	0.00	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.06	0.03	82.61	77.63	0.04	0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.06	0.03	47.83	43.66	-0.00	-0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.06	0.03	41.67	40.61	-0.01	-0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.00	0.03	35.00	39.29	-0.00	-0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.06	0.03	75.00	76.00	0.03	0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.03	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
Denver	SB	0.05	0.03	70.83	72.23	0.02	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.03	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.06	0.03	50.00	48.90	0.00	-0.00
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.03	61.90	67.23	0.01	0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.06	0.03	34.78	35.20	-0.02	-0.01
Nevada	WAC	0.06	0.03	80.95	76.42	0.04	0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.03	86.96	85.46	0.04	0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.03	35.00	40.78	-0.02	-0.01
Samford	SC	0.05	0.03	33.33	35.26	-0.02	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.03	45.45	44.66	-0.00	-0.00
Texas St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	22.22	27.62	-0.03	-0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.03	38.10	40.81	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.06	0.03	81.82	76.80	0.04	0.02
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.03	69.57	65.47	0.02	0.01
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.03	86.36	83.09	0.04	0.02
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.00	0.03	34.78	38.77	-0.00	-0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.00	0.03	34.78	38.42	-0.00	-0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.03	68.18	67.64	0.02	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.03	40.91	39.56	-0.01	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.03	28.57	34.20	-0.02	-0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.03	79.17	78.10	0.03	0.02
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.05	0.03	35.00	35.31	-0.02	-0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.03	95.83	92.57	0.05	0.03
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.03	54.55	48.60	0.00	-0.00
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.03	66.67	68.55	0.02	0.01
Southern Utah	Sum	0.05	0.03	45.45	44.30	-0.00	-0.00
UC Davis	BW	0.05	0.03	0.00	5.37	-0.05	-0.03
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.03	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.03	60.87	60.96	0.01	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.03	59.09	56.35	0.01	0.00
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.03	47.83	48.56	-0.00	-0.00
Pittsburgh	BE	0.05	0.03	60.87	58.16	0.01	0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.00	0.03	60.00	59.06	0.00	0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.00	0.03	77.27	77.67	0.00	0.02
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.03	4.00	5.26	-0.04	-0.03
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.03	65.22	63.74	0.01	0.01