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Through games of Dec 19, 2014.


Tennessee

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:133.3
Current RPI:64
Expected SOS:43
Current SOS:8
Current Record:5-4
Expected Record:14-16
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-1
Current OOC Record:5-4
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:118
Expected OOC SOS:90



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-1040.80.12%
19-1149.60.51%
18-1264.51.83%
17-1378.34.74%
16-1493.79.55%
15-15110.616.29%
14-16127.120.45%
13-17144.419.44%
12-18160.914.26%
11-19179.37.90%
10-20197.53.57%
9-21214.91.04%
8-22229.90.28%
6-24275.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tennessee.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14VCU (25.9)A10N85-69L0%0.0
11-20Texas Southern (226.9)SWACH70-58W100%0.0
11-27Santa Clara (197.6)WCCN64-57W100%0.0
11-28Kansas (7.8)B12N82-67L0%0.0
11-30Marquette (92.0)BEN67-59L0%0.0
12-6Kansas St. (133.5)B12H65-64W100%0.0
12-14Butler (25.7)BEH67-55W100%0.0
12-17North Carolina St. (39.7)ACCA83-72L0%0.0
12-19Tennessee Tech (201.6)OVCH61-58W100%0.0
12-22Mercer (235.4)SCH0-082%10.6
12-27Tennessee St. (331.4)OVCH0-095%19.2
12-31East Tennessee St. (128.9)SCH0-069%5.7
1-7Mississippi St. (212.4)SECA0-046%-1.2
1-10Alabama (82.4)SECH0-051%0.3
1-13Arkansas (42.6)SECH0-037%-4.0
1-17Missouri (177.3)SECA0-049%-0.4
1-20South Carolina (38.5)SECA0-09%-15.4
1-24Texas A&M (54.7)SECH0-042%-2.4
1-27Arkansas (42.6)SECA0-014%-12.7
1-31Auburn (186.5)SECH0-074%7.4
2-3Mississippi St. (212.4)SECH0-074%7.5
2-7Georgia (53.1)SECA0-016%-11.6
2-11Vanderbilt (90.9)SECA0-021%-9.3
2-14LSU (68.4)SECH0-049%-0.3
2-17Kentucky (1.4)SECH0-04%-21.1
2-21Mississippi (99.7)SECA0-030%-6.2
2-26Vanderbilt (90.9)SECH0-048%-0.6
2-28Florida (42.1)SECA0-010%-15.1
3-4LSU (68.4)SECA0-022%-9.1
3-7South Carolina (38.5)SECH0-028%-6.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tennessee's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Tennessee's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Tennessee.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TennesseeSEC27.6426.1148.5740.22-0.79-5.10
ArkansasSEC0.003.9477.7871.570.001.70
VanderbiltSEC0.003.9475.0059.960.000.78
Mississippi St.SEC0.003.9450.0039.580.00-0.82
South CarolinaSEC0.003.9166.6765.010.001.17
LSUSEC0.003.8880.0063.990.001.09
GeorgiaSEC0.002.3862.5058.650.000.41
FloridaSEC0.622.3860.0063.270.120.63
AlabamaSEC0.312.3666.6754.840.100.23
Texas A&MSEC0.002.3577.7866.150.000.76
MississippiSEC0.002.3570.0051.940.000.09
KentuckySEC0.312.33100.0095.070.312.10
AuburnSEC0.002.3344.4436.24-0.00-0.64
MissouriSEC0.002.3344.4431.25-0.00-0.87
Kansas St.B125.561.8066.6738.391.85-0.42
MercerSC0.001.7844.4445.47-0.00-0.16
Tennessee TechOVC5.561.7850.0051.530.000.05
Tennessee St.OVC0.001.780.0015.54-0.00-1.23
East Tennessee St.SC0.001.7871.4365.400.000.55
KansasB125.561.7787.5068.184.170.65
Texas SouthernSWAC5.561.7512.5046.24-4.17-0.13
ButlerBE5.561.7288.8974.784.320.85
MarquetteBE5.561.7255.5647.850.62-0.07
VCUA105.561.7066.6770.501.850.70
North Carolina St.ACC5.561.6780.0063.493.330.45
Santa ClaraWCC5.561.6757.1442.180.79-0.26
BaylorB120.310.2890.0073.800.250.13
Western CarolinaSC0.000.2620.0041.08-0.00-0.05
ClemsonACC0.000.2560.0044.120.00-0.03
Iowa St.B120.000.2588.8963.400.000.07
TCUB120.000.22100.0066.920.000.07
ChattanoogaSC0.590.2040.0049.77-0.12-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.000.1988.8963.880.000.05
XavierBE0.000.1980.0070.970.000.08
GeorgetownBE0.590.1966.6759.590.200.04
Texas TechB120.000.1990.0055.490.000.02
West VirginiaB120.000.1990.0067.450.000.07
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.1750.0068.680.000.07
BelmontOVC0.280.1760.0061.960.060.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1744.4446.81-0.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.000.1790.0067.320.000.06
Saint LouisA100.000.1660.0033.900.00-0.05
OklahomaB120.280.1677.7867.320.150.06
Morehead St.OVC0.000.1516.6737.98-0.00-0.04
WoffordSC0.250.1577.7875.790.140.08
North FloridaASun0.310.1450.0057.210.000.02
LipscombASun0.310.1422.2238.12-0.17-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.280.1477.7851.830.150.01
PurdueB100.530.1472.7363.770.240.04
CreightonBE0.000.1475.0051.760.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.1472.7353.500.000.01
VillanovaBE0.280.14100.0081.870.280.09
DaytonA100.000.1477.7869.970.000.05
North CarolinaACC0.280.1370.0072.100.110.06
TexasB120.000.1390.0081.650.000.09
Wake ForestACC0.250.1350.0038.520.00-0.03
FurmanSC0.000.1222.2231.52-0.00-0.04
SamfordSC0.000.1233.3331.23-0.00-0.04
The CitadelSC0.000.1216.6730.30-0.00-0.05
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.1222.2237.12-0.00-0.03
VMISC0.000.1233.3338.93-0.00-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1255.5637.870.00-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.310.1190.0090.870.250.09
Tennessee MartinOVC0.280.1162.5067.130.070.04
Michigan St.B100.930.1172.7373.190.420.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.310.1154.5559.120.030.02
VirginiaACC0.280.11100.0085.760.280.08
DePaulBE0.000.1160.0034.020.00-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.000.1150.0038.230.00-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.250.1110.0018.22-0.20-0.07
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.1125.0048.53-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.1110.0018.50-0.00-0.07
St. John'sBE0.000.1188.8964.830.000.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.1133.3363.11-0.000.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0914.2945.11-0.00-0.01
PacificWCC0.000.0950.0038.110.00-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0922.2230.55-0.00-0.03
TulaneAmer0.310.0988.8955.090.240.01
Utah St.MWC0.350.0960.0052.190.070.00
UMKCWAC0.280.0822.2242.00-0.15-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.280.0836.3633.52-0.08-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.660.0862.5073.430.160.04
Arizona St.P120.280.0860.0053.630.060.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0877.7855.570.000.01
La SalleA100.000.0850.0049.930.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.000.0872.7366.650.000.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.280.080.0028.67-0.28-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0850.0045.370.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0833.3334.61-0.00-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.080.0036.84-0.00-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0850.0073.610.000.04
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0842.8626.94-0.00-0.04
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0877.7868.980.000.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.250.0816.6744.58-0.17-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0860.0055.280.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.280.0890.0081.790.220.05
RichmondA100.250.0855.5657.270.030.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.280.0818.1827.79-0.18-0.04
SMUAmer0.310.0870.0071.300.120.03
SouthernSWAC0.000.080.0034.05-0.00-0.03
UABCUSA0.000.0830.0036.94-0.00-0.02
BYUWCC0.000.0666.6768.290.000.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0625.0023.09-0.00-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.000.0675.0057.990.000.01
PortlandWCC0.000.0666.6748.270.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0662.5057.080.000.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0654.5557.650.000.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0650.0053.240.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.620.0620.0045.49-0.37-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0680.0070.970.000.02
WinthropBSth0.000.0625.0044.57-0.00-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0633.3339.29-0.00-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0655.5661.910.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.060.0023.36-0.00-0.03
AkronMAC0.000.0660.0056.170.000.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0660.0063.510.000.02
CornellIvy0.000.0655.5648.170.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0645.4550.81-0.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0625.0038.65-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0024.34-0.00-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0654.5544.640.00-0.01
RiderMAAC0.660.0650.0053.130.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0650.0047.740.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.310.0637.5064.18-0.080.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0633.3345.98-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.000.0666.6757.620.000.01
PennIvy0.000.0637.5033.00-0.00-0.02
RutgersB100.000.0660.0034.920.00-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.000.0660.0064.800.000.02
ArizonaP120.280.05100.0082.300.280.04
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0557.1470.410.000.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.560.0544.4455.60-0.060.01
South FloridaAmer0.250.0544.4444.86-0.03-0.01
TroySB0.000.0533.3339.50-0.00-0.01
UCLAP120.000.0572.7357.230.000.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.050.0028.56-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0518.1838.45-0.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.250.0542.8649.88-0.04-0.00
DavidsonA100.000.0587.5076.810.000.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0540.0046.66-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0537.5050.60-0.000.00
George MasonA100.000.0525.0026.38-0.00-0.03
George WashingtonA100.000.0566.6766.380.000.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.050.009.00-0.00-0.04
IndianaB100.310.0580.0057.340.190.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0566.6772.800.000.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.05100.0085.970.000.04
Miami FLACC0.000.0581.8266.320.000.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.0542.8636.96-0.00-0.01
OregonP120.280.0566.6757.860.090.01
PittsburghACC0.280.0566.6752.850.090.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.050.0039.69-0.00-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0533.3340.82-0.00-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0528.5742.44-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0344.4469.77-0.000.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0342.8638.86-0.00-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.350.0336.3638.89-0.09-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0366.6757.890.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.350.030.007.81-0.35-0.03
USCP120.310.0360.0036.070.06-0.01
Washington St.P120.350.0340.0028.84-0.07-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0318.1831.71-0.00-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.03100.0078.490.000.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.0350.0046.960.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0316.6726.71-0.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0336.3647.58-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0322.2240.60-0.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0337.5034.46-0.00-0.01
ElonCAA0.000.0337.5047.90-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0350.0052.110.000.00
HartfordAE0.000.0350.0050.810.000.00
IllinoisB100.000.0372.7365.120.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0342.8652.90-0.000.00
MinnesotaB100.000.0380.0066.580.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0318.1836.00-0.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0370.0058.740.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0320.0046.54-0.00-0.00
NJITind0.280.0336.3641.21-0.08-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.0325.0032.93-0.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.280.0390.0084.460.220.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0344.4445.51-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.0333.3355.14-0.000.00
TowsonCAA0.000.0366.6751.280.000.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0360.0056.900.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0387.5085.540.000.02
WisconsinB100.280.0390.9188.540.230.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0345.4543.81-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.250.0375.0069.170.130.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0366.6742.760.00-0.00
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0333.3342.54-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.280.0333.3332.70-0.09-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0377.7870.500.000.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0333.3349.72-0.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0362.5064.770.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0350.0057.700.000.00
DukeACC0.000.03100.0087.560.000.02
DuquesneA100.000.0328.5731.22-0.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.310.0360.0075.470.060.01
FordhamA100.000.0328.5728.06-0.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0336.3644.80-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.250.0377.7878.860.140.02
Illinois St.MVC0.280.0366.6764.740.090.01
Indiana St.MVC0.280.0333.3333.03-0.09-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0375.0059.530.000.01
LafayettePat0.000.0375.0070.210.000.01
LamarSlnd0.310.0314.2933.59-0.22-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.280.0340.0050.17-0.060.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0333.3345.26-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0372.7367.410.000.01
Loyola MDPat0.280.0333.3327.57-0.09-0.01
MaineAE0.280.0311.1121.27-0.22-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.280.0338.4644.31-0.06-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.0322.2228.76-0.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0336.3665.17-0.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0336.3647.56-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.280.0390.0078.440.220.02
NorthwesternB100.280.0360.0040.370.06-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0390.9172.430.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0355.5640.440.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.280.0314.2929.35-0.20-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0375.0065.210.000.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0366.6758.330.000.00
TempleAmer0.000.0363.6455.560.000.00
ToledoMAC0.280.0360.0058.890.060.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0375.0049.970.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0355.5655.500.000.00
UtahP120.310.0377.7879.680.170.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0355.5638.620.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0355.5649.770.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0357.1456.650.000.00