Tennessee

Conference:	SEC
Expected RPI:	8.0
Current RPI:	8
Expected SOS:	18
Current SOS:	18
Current Record:	25-8
Expected Record:	25-8
Current Conf Record:	15-6
Expected Conf Record:	15-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	8-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	9-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	2-0
Current OOC Record:	10-2
Expected OOC Record:	10-2
Expected OOC RPI:	15
Expected OOC SOS:	24

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
25-8	8.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tennessee.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Presbyterian (319.0)	BSth	H	88-53	W	100%
11-14	High Point (273.0)	BSth	H	84-53	W	100%
11-22	Purdue (9.0)	B10	N	75-78	W	100%
11-23	Villanova (2.0)	BE	N	85-76	L	0%
11-24	North Carolina St. (64.0)	ACC	N	58-67	W	100%
11-29	Mercer (174.0)	SC	H	84-60	W	100%
12-3	Georgia Tech (161.0)	ACC	A	70-77	W	100%
12-9	Lipscomb (101.0)	ASun	H	81-71	W	100%
12-17	North Carolina (4.0)	ACC	H	73-78	L	0%
12-20	Furman (97.0)	SC	H	66-61	W	100%
12-23	Wake Forest (160.0)	ACC	A	60-79	W	100%
12-30	Arkansas (30.0)	SEC	A	95-93	L	0%
1-2	Auburn (15.0)	SEC	H	84-94	L	0%
1-6	Kentucky (10.0)	SEC	H	76-65	W	100%
1-9	Vanderbilt (132.0)	SEC	A	84-92	W	100%
1-13	Texas A&M (29.0)	SEC	H	75-62	W	100%
1-17	Missouri (43.0)	SEC	A	59-55	L	0%
1-20	South Carolina (90.0)	SEC	A	63-70	W	100%
1-23	Vanderbilt (132.0)	SEC	H	67-62	W	100%
1-27	Iowa St. (144.0)	B12	A	45-68	W	100%
1-31	LSU (95.0)	SEC	H	84-61	W	100%
2-3	Mississippi (141.0)	SEC	H	94-61	W	100%
2-6	Kentucky (10.0)	SEC	A	59-61	W	100%
2-10	Alabama (42.0)	SEC	A	78-50	L	0%
2-13	South Carolina (90.0)	SEC	H	70-67	W	100%
2-17	Georgia (79.0)	SEC	A	73-62	L	0%
2-21	Florida (46.0)	SEC	H	62-57	W	100%
2-24	Mississippi (141.0)	SEC	A	65-73	W	100%
2-27	Mississippi St. (73.0)	SEC	A	54-76	W	100%
3-3	Georgia (79.0)	SEC	H	66-61	W	100%
3-9	Mississippi St. (73.0)	SEC	N	62-59	W	100%
3-10	Arkansas (30.0)	SEC	N	84-66	W	100%
3-11	Kentucky (10.0)	SEC	N	72-77	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tennessee's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Tennessee's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Tennessee.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Tennessee	SEC	26.19	26.19	76.16	76.16	13.70	13.70
Kentucky	SEC	5.15	5.15	74.19	74.19	2.49	2.49
Georgia	SEC	3.75	3.75	54.84	54.84	0.36	0.36
Arkansas	SEC	3.71	3.71	68.75	68.75	1.39	1.39
South Carolina	SEC	3.70	3.70	53.33	53.33	0.25	0.25
Mississippi St.	SEC	3.69	3.69	70.00	70.00	1.47	1.47
Vanderbilt	SEC	3.68	3.68	40.00	40.00	-0.74	-0.74
Mississippi	SEC	3.66	3.66	40.00	40.00	-0.73	-0.73
Alabama	SEC	2.29	2.29	54.55	54.55	0.21	0.21
Missouri	SEC	2.28	2.28	60.00	60.00	0.46	0.46
Florida	SEC	2.25	2.25	64.52	64.52	0.65	0.65
LSU	SEC	2.21	2.21	56.67	56.67	0.29	0.29
Auburn	SEC	2.21	2.21	77.42	77.42	1.21	1.21
Texas A&M	SEC	2.19	2.19	64.52	64.52	0.63	0.63
North Carolina St.	ACC	1.66	1.66	67.74	67.74	0.59	0.59
Georgia Tech	ACC	1.66	1.66	41.94	41.94	-0.27	-0.27
North Carolina	ACC	1.66	1.66	70.59	70.59	0.68	0.68
Wake Forest	ACC	1.63	1.63	36.67	36.67	-0.44	-0.44
Presbyterian	BSth	1.59	1.59	28.57	28.57	-0.68	-0.68
Mercer	SC	1.59	1.59	55.17	55.17	0.16	0.16
High Point	BSth	1.57	1.57	42.31	42.31	-0.24	-0.24
Furman	SC	1.57	1.57	70.00	70.00	0.63	0.63
Lipscomb	ASun	1.56	1.56	71.43	71.43	0.67	0.67
Purdue	B10	1.54	1.54	84.85	84.85	1.07	1.07
Iowa St.	B12	1.54	1.54	43.33	43.33	-0.21	-0.21
Villanova	BE	1.52	1.52	87.88	87.88	1.15	1.15
Wofford	SC	0.25	0.25	60.00	60.00	0.05	0.05
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.23	0.23	65.62	65.62	0.07	0.07
Clemson	ACC	0.23	0.23	71.88	71.88	0.10	0.10
Duke	ACC	0.21	0.21	78.79	78.79	0.12	0.12
Winthrop	BSth	0.20	0.20	57.14	57.14	0.03	0.03
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.19	0.19	71.88	71.88	0.08	0.08
Notre Dame	ACC	0.19	0.19	57.58	57.58	0.03	0.03
Virginia	ACC	0.19	0.19	93.94	93.94	0.16	0.16
Louisville	ACC	0.18	0.18	60.61	60.61	0.04	0.04
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.18	0.18	61.29	61.29	0.04	0.04
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.17	0.17	77.42	77.42	0.10	0.10
Western Carolina	SC	0.17	0.17	36.67	36.67	-0.05	-0.05
North Florida	ASun	0.17	0.17	36.67	36.67	-0.05	-0.05
Texas	B12	0.17	0.17	57.58	57.58	0.03	0.03
Samford	SC	0.17	0.17	26.67	26.67	-0.08	-0.08
Syracuse	ACC	0.16	0.16	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
West Virginia	B12	0.16	0.16	70.59	70.59	0.07	0.07
Marquette	BE	0.16	0.16	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.16	0.16	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Liberty	BSth	0.16	0.16	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.16	0.16	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Radford	BSth	0.16	0.16	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
VMI	SC	0.15	0.15	25.00	25.00	-0.07	-0.07
Kansas St.	B12	0.14	0.14	66.67	66.67	0.05	0.05
Boston College	ACC	0.14	0.14	55.88	55.88	0.02	0.02
Kansas	B12	0.14	0.14	79.41	79.41	0.08	0.08
Temple	Amer	0.14	0.14	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.14	0.14	13.33	13.33	-0.10	-0.10
The Citadel	SC	0.13	0.13	27.59	27.59	-0.06	-0.06
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.12	0.12	25.00	25.00	-0.06	-0.06
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.12	0.12	76.67	76.67	0.06	0.06
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.12	0.12	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.12	0.12	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Oklahoma	B12	0.12	0.12	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.12	0.12	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
Butler	BE	0.11	0.11	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Michigan	B10	0.11	0.11	79.41	79.41	0.07	0.07
Minnesota	B10	0.11	0.11	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Troy	SB	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.11	0.11	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Belmont	OVC	0.10	0.10	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Chattanooga	SC	0.10	0.10	25.81	25.81	-0.05	-0.05
USC Upstate	ASun	0.10	0.10	10.71	10.71	-0.08	-0.08
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.10	0.10	24.24	24.24	-0.05	-0.05
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.10	0.10	25.00	25.00	-0.05	-0.05
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.10	0.10	80.00	80.00	0.06	0.06
TCU	B12	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Texas Tech	B12	0.10	0.10	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Illinois St.	MVC	0.09	0.09	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Houston	Amer	0.09	0.09	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Massachusetts	A10	0.09	0.09	39.39	39.39	-0.02	-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.09	0.09	30.77	30.77	-0.04	-0.04
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.09	0.09	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona	P12	0.09	0.09	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
Penn St.	B10	0.09	0.09	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Connecticut	Amer	0.09	0.09	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Charlotte	CUSA	0.08	0.08	17.86	17.86	-0.05	-0.05
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Stetson	ASun	0.08	0.08	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.08	0.08	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Baylor	B12	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Memphis	Amer	0.07	0.07	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
UCF	Amer	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.07	0.07	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Green Bay	Horz	0.07	0.07	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.07	0.07	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.07	0.07	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Utah	P12	0.07	0.07	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Illinois	B10	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	Amer	0.07	0.07	88.24	88.24	0.05	0.05
Dayton	A10	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
USC	P12	0.07	0.07	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Bryant	NEC	0.07	0.07	9.68	9.68	-0.06	-0.06
St. John's	BE	0.07	0.07	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.07	0.07	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Monmouth	MAAC	0.07	0.07	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Providence	BE	0.07	0.07	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Rutgers	B10	0.07	0.07	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Utah Valley	WAC	0.07	0.07	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Vermont	AE	0.07	0.07	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Bucknell	Pat	0.07	0.07	73.53	73.53	0.03	0.03
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.05	0.05	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
NJIT	ASun	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Chicago St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	3.33	3.33	-0.05	-0.05
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
New Hampshire	AE	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
FIU	CUSA	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia St.	SB	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.05	0.05	10.71	10.71	-0.04	-0.04
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.05	17.24	17.24	-0.03	-0.03
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
UTEP	CUSA	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Wyoming	MWC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.05	0.05	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.05	0.05	84.85	84.85	0.03	0.03
San Diego St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.04	0.04	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.04	0.04	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Creighton	BE	0.04	0.04	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.04	0.04	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Fresno St.	MWC	0.04	0.04	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.04	0.04	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Maryland	B10	0.04	0.04	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.04	0.04	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.04	0.04	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.04	0.04	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Xavier	BE	0.04	0.04	84.85	84.85	0.03	0.03
Michigan St.	B10	0.04	0.04	87.88	87.88	0.03	0.03
Ohio St.	B10	0.04	0.04	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
College of Charleston	CAA	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
William & Mary	CAA	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Morehead St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	22.22	22.22	-0.01	-0.01
Navy	Pat	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Appalachian St.	SB	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Army	Pat	0.02	0.02	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Boise St.	MWC	0.02	0.02	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
Drake	MVC	0.02	0.02	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Elon	CAA	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia Southern	SB	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.02	0.02	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Milwaukee	Horz	0.02	0.02	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Northeastern	CAA	0.02	0.02	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.02	0.02	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Tulsa	Amer	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.02	0.02	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.02	0.02	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	15.62	15.62	-0.02	-0.02
Cornell	Ivy	0.02	0.02	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
George Mason	A10	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.02	0.02	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.02	0.02	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.02	0.02	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Murray St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	82.76	82.76	0.02	0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
North Texas	CUSA	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.02	0.02	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.02	0.02	16.13	16.13	-0.02	-0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.02	0.02	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.02	0.02	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
UMKC	WAC	0.02	0.02	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.02	0.02	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.02	0.02	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
BYU	WCC	0.02	0.02	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.02	0.02	26.92	26.92	-0.01	-0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.02	0.02	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Indiana	B10	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
IUPUI	Horz	0.02	0.02	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Lafayette	Pat	0.02	0.02	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.02	0.02	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Nebraska	B10	0.02	0.02	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Penn	Ivy	0.02	0.02	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.02	0.02	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
UT Arlington	SB	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.00	0.00
Valparaiso	MVC	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Davidson	A10	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Portland	WCC	0.02	0.02	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	Amer	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00