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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.


Tennessee

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:59.0
Current RPI:59
Expected SOS:58
Current SOS:58
Current Record:20-12
Expected Record:20-12
Current Conf Record:12-8
Expected Conf Record:12-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-0
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:64
Expected OOC SOS:44



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-1259.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tennessee.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Kennesaw St. (341.0)ASunH76-67W100%0.0
11-15NC Asheville (217.0)BSthN75-68W100%0.0
11-16Oklahoma St. (27.0)B12N45-62L0%0.0
11-18Massachusetts (57.0)A10N69-83W100%0.0
11-26Oakland (152.0)SumH77-50W100%0.0
11-30Georgetown (11.0)BEA37-36L0%0.0
12-5Virginia (76.0)ACCA46-38L0%0.0
12-13Wichita St. (37.0)MVCH69-60W100%0.0
12-18Presbyterian (340.0)BSthH78-62W100%0.0
12-21Western Carolina (243.0)SCH66-52W100%0.0
12-29Xavier (87.0)A10H51-47W100%0.0
1-4Memphis (12.0)CUSAH80-85L0%0.0
1-9Mississippi (47.0)SECH74-92L0%0.0
1-12Alabama (60.0)SECA68-65L0%0.0
1-15Kentucky (56.0)SECA75-65L0%0.0
1-19Mississippi St. (232.0)SECH72-57W100%0.0
1-24Mississippi (47.0)SECA62-56L0%0.0
1-26Alabama (60.0)SECH54-53W100%0.0
1-29Vanderbilt (120.0)SECH58-57W100%0.0
2-2Arkansas (89.0)SECA73-60L0%0.0
2-6Georgia (140.0)SECH62-68L0%0.0
2-10South Carolina (222.0)SECA61-66W100%0.0
2-13Vanderbilt (120.0)SECA46-58W100%0.0
2-16Kentucky (56.0)SECH88-58W100%0.0
2-19Louisiana St. (86.0)SECH82-72W100%0.0
2-23Texas A&M (102.0)SECA85-93W100%0.0
2-26Florida (7.0)SECH64-58W100%0.0
3-2Georgia (140.0)SECA78-68L0%0.0
3-6Auburn (252.0)SECA75-82W100%0.0
3-9Missouri (36.0)SECH64-62W100%0.0
3-14Mississippi St. (232.0)SECN69-53W100%0.0
3-15Alabama (60.0)SECN58-48L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tennessee's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Tennessee's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Tennessee.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TennesseeSEC26.1726.1761.1961.195.865.86
AlabamaSEC5.295.2962.0762.071.281.28
VanderbiltSEC3.833.8351.6151.610.120.12
MississippiSEC3.783.7875.0075.001.891.89
Mississippi St.SEC3.783.7833.3333.33-1.26-1.26
GeorgiaSEC3.733.7343.3343.33-0.50-0.50
KentuckySEC3.733.7366.6766.671.241.24
FloridaSEC2.362.3681.2581.251.481.48
South CarolinaSEC2.292.2945.1645.16-0.22-0.22
Louisiana St.SEC2.292.2963.3363.330.610.61
AuburnSEC2.282.2829.0329.03-0.96-0.96
Texas A&MSEC2.262.2656.2556.250.280.28
MissouriSEC2.232.2371.8871.880.980.98
ArkansasSEC2.212.2158.0658.060.360.36
XavierA101.661.6656.6756.670.220.22
NC AshevilleBSth1.641.6446.4346.43-0.12-0.12
PresbyterianBSth1.641.6417.8617.86-1.05-1.05
Western CarolinaSC1.641.6440.0040.00-0.33-0.33
OaklandSum1.641.6448.2848.28-0.06-0.06
GeorgetownBE1.591.5980.0080.000.950.95
MassachusettsA101.591.5967.7467.740.560.56
MemphisCUSA1.591.5987.8887.881.201.20
Wichita St.MVC1.591.5978.7978.790.910.91
Kennesaw St.ASun1.561.5610.3410.34-1.24-1.24
Oklahoma St.B121.561.5674.1974.190.760.76
VirginiaACC1.561.5664.5264.520.450.45
Virginia CommonwealthA100.220.2276.4776.470.110.11
Charleston SouthernBSth0.200.2057.1457.140.030.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.180.1842.3142.31-0.03-0.03
MercerASun0.170.1765.6265.620.050.05
DaytonA100.170.1754.8454.840.020.02
LipscombASun0.170.1737.9337.93-0.04-0.04
CincinnatiBE0.150.1566.6766.670.050.05
MarquetteBE0.150.1574.1974.190.070.07
East Tennessee St.ASun0.150.1529.0329.03-0.06-0.06
VillanovaBE0.150.1559.3859.380.030.03
Southern MississippiCUSA0.140.1471.8871.880.060.06
WinthropBSth0.130.1339.2939.29-0.03-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.130.1319.3519.35-0.08-0.08
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SC0.130.1344.8344.83-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.130.1370.9770.970.050.05
Georgia TechACC0.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.120.1270.5970.590.050.05
George WashingtonA100.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
SamfordSC0.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
ButlerA100.120.1275.7675.760.060.06
BaylorB120.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
Texas TechB120.120.1235.4835.48-0.04-0.04
LouisvilleBE0.120.1285.2985.290.090.09
Alabama A&MSWAC0.120.1231.0331.03-0.05-0.05
TulaneCUSA0.120.1256.2556.250.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.120.1229.0329.03-0.05-0.05
Middle TennesseeSB0.120.1284.8584.850.080.08
Gardner WebbBSth0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
LibertyBSth0.100.1037.5037.50-0.03-0.03
CharlotteA100.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
St. John'sBE0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
ClemsonACC0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.1020.6920.69-0.06-0.06
Notre DameBE0.100.1073.5373.530.050.05
SyracuseBE0.100.1074.2974.290.050.05
WisconsinB100.100.1067.6567.650.040.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
ElonSC0.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.100.1027.5927.59-0.04-0.04
South FloridaBE0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
DavidsonSC0.100.1078.1278.120.050.05
UCLAP120.100.1073.5373.530.050.05
LamarSlnd0.100.109.689.68-0.08-0.08
MarylandACC0.100.1064.7164.710.030.03
North CarolinaACC0.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.100.1028.1228.12-0.04-0.04
Florida St.ACC0.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
Kansas St.B120.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
OklahomaB120.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
RutgersBE0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
CreightonMVC0.100.1079.4179.410.060.06
FordhamA100.100.1022.5822.58-0.05-0.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.100.1017.8617.86-0.06-0.06
MarshallCUSA0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
CampbellBSth0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
South Carolina UpstateASun0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.080.0821.4321.43-0.04-0.04
PittsburghBE0.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
FurmanSC0.080.0817.2417.24-0.05-0.05
Georgia SouthernSC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonSC0.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
DuquesneA100.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
WoffordSC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
CornellIvy0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0714.2914.29-0.05-0.05
IndianaB100.070.0781.8281.820.050.05
TempleA100.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
OhioMAC0.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
IllinoisB100.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.070.0770.3770.370.030.03
St. LouisA100.070.0781.8281.820.050.05
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.0739.2939.29-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.070.0784.3884.380.050.05
Oregon St.P120.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.070.0736.3636.36-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0739.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
East CarolinaCUSA0.070.0753.8553.850.010.01
Texas El PasoCUSA0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Central FloridaCUSA0.070.0762.0762.070.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
TulsaCUSA0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
High PointBSth0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0557.6957.690.010.01
Virginia Military InstBSth0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
IUPUISum0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0571.4371.430.020.02
AkronMAC0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
NortheasternCAA0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
TowsonCAA0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
NC GreensboroSC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Seton HallBE0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
RichmondA100.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Houston BaptistGWC0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticSB0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
KansasB120.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
LafayettePat0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Long IslandNEC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
New Orleansind0.050.0518.1818.18-0.03-0.03
PortlandWCC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Southern CaliforniaP120.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Texas ChristianB120.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Texas San AntonioWAC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
HowardMEAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
HarvardIvy0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
MaristMAAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
William & MaryCAA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
HoustonCUSA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
HawaiiBW0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
NC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
AmericanPat0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutBE0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
DrexelCAA0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
PacificBW0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
PurdueB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckySB0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Arizona St.P120.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
DelawareCAA0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
George MasonCAA0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.020.0293.7593.750.020.02
GramblingSWAC0.020.020.000.00-0.02-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.020.0265.5265.520.010.01
North TexasSB0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCAA0.020.0216.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.020.0223.0823.08-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Texas ArlingtonWAC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
UC DavisBW0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
ArmyPat0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
BucknellPat0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
Louisiana TechWAC0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.020.0228.0028.00-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
StanfordP120.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.020.0285.1985.190.020.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Washington St.P120.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
IowaB100.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
Loyola MDMAAC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
MinnesotaB100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSlnd0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
RiceCUSA0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Southern MethodistCUSA0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00