Tennessee

Conference:	SEC
Expected RPI:	86.0
Current RPI:	86
Expected SOS:	35
Current SOS:	35
Current Record:	17-14
Expected Record:	17-14
Current Conf Record:	10-7
Expected Conf Record:	10-7
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	7-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	4-0
Current OOC Record:	7-7
Expected OOC Record:	7-7
Expected OOC RPI:	194
Expected OOC SOS:	130

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
17-14	86.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tennessee.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	NC Greensboro (231.0)	SC	H	92-63	W	100%
11-16	Louisiana Monroe (317.0)	SB	H	85-62	W	100%
11-21	Duke (5.0)	ACC	N	77-67	L	0%
11-22	Memphis (16.0)	CUSA	N	97-99	L	0%
11-28	Oakland (139.0)	Sum	A	89-81	L	0%
12-3	Pittsburgh (96.0)	BE	H	56-61	L	0%
12-10	Austin Peay (193.0)	OVC	H	70-74	L	0%
12-14	College of Charleston (122.0)	SC	A	71-65	L	0%
12-20	NC Asheville (104.0)	BSth	H	72-68	W	100%
12-23	East Tennessee St. (179.0)	ASun	H	66-63	W	100%
12-29	The Citadel (325.0)	SC	H	86-55	W	100%
1-2	Chattanooga (310.0)	SC	H	76-63	W	100%
1-4	Memphis (16.0)	CUSA	A	69-51	L	0%
1-7	Florida (30.0)	SEC	H	67-56	W	100%
1-12	Mississippi St. (75.0)	SEC	A	62-58	L	0%
1-14	Kentucky (2.0)	SEC	H	62-65	L	0%
1-18	Georgia (101.0)	SEC	A	57-53	L	0%
1-21	Connecticut (32.0)	BE	H	60-57	W	100%
1-24	Vanderbilt (18.0)	SEC	A	65-47	L	0%
1-28	Auburn (145.0)	SEC	H	64-49	W	100%
1-31	Kentucky (2.0)	SEC	A	69-44	L	0%
2-4	Georgia (101.0)	SEC	H	73-62	W	100%
2-8	South Carolina (194.0)	SEC	H	69-57	W	100%
2-11	Florida (30.0)	SEC	A	70-75	W	100%
2-15	Arkansas (110.0)	SEC	H	77-58	W	100%
2-18	Alabama (36.0)	SEC	A	62-50	L	0%
2-22	Mississippi (61.0)	SEC	H	73-60	W	100%
2-25	South Carolina (194.0)	SEC	A	64-73	W	100%
2-29	Louisiana St. (84.0)	SEC	A	69-74	W	100%
3-3	Vanderbilt (18.0)	SEC	H	68-61	W	100%
3-9	Mississippi (61.0)	SEC	N	72-77	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tennessee's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Tennessee's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Tennessee.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Tennessee	SEC	26.13	26.13	51.22	51.22	0.64	0.64
Kentucky	SEC	3.95	3.95	93.75	93.75	3.45	3.45
Vanderbilt	SEC	3.95	3.95	71.88	71.88	1.73	1.73
Florida	SEC	3.87	3.87	74.19	74.19	1.87	1.87
Georgia	SEC	3.87	3.87	46.67	46.67	-0.26	-0.26
Mississippi	SEC	3.83	3.83	61.29	61.29	0.86	0.86
South Carolina	SEC	3.82	3.82	34.48	34.48	-1.18	-1.18
Memphis	CUSA	3.25	3.25	75.00	75.00	1.63	1.63
Alabama	SEC	2.29	2.29	64.52	64.52	0.66	0.66
Mississippi St.	SEC	2.24	2.24	64.52	64.52	0.65	0.65
Arkansas	SEC	2.24	2.24	58.06	58.06	0.36	0.36
Louisiana St.	SEC	2.23	2.23	58.06	58.06	0.36	0.36
Auburn	SEC	2.21	2.21	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
NC Greensboro	SC	1.80	1.80	40.00	40.00	-0.36	-0.36
College of Charleston	SC	1.78	1.78	60.00	60.00	0.36	0.36
Chattanooga	SC	1.77	1.77	28.57	28.57	-0.76	-0.76
The Citadel	SC	1.74	1.74	14.81	14.81	-1.23	-1.23
Connecticut	BE	1.69	1.69	62.50	62.50	0.42	0.42
Louisiana Monroe	SB	1.69	1.69	11.11	11.11	-1.31	-1.31
NC Asheville	BSth	1.66	1.66	72.41	72.41	0.75	0.75
Oakland	Sum	1.66	1.66	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Austin Peay	OVC	1.66	1.66	33.33	33.33	-0.55	-0.55
Duke	ACC	1.64	1.64	81.25	81.25	1.02	1.02
Pittsburgh	BE	1.64	1.64	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
East Tennessee St.	ASun	1.61	1.61	55.17	55.17	0.17	0.17
Western Carolina	SC	0.30	0.30	45.45	45.45	-0.03	-0.03
Elon	SC	0.27	0.27	44.83	44.83	-0.03	-0.03
Appalachian St.	SC	0.27	0.27	37.93	37.93	-0.06	-0.06
Wofford	SC	0.27	0.27	56.67	56.67	0.04	0.04
Davidson	SC	0.26	0.26	77.42	77.42	0.14	0.14
Georgia Southern	SC	0.25	0.25	46.43	46.43	-0.02	-0.02
Louisville	BE	0.24	0.24	74.29	74.29	0.12	0.12
Georgetown	BE	0.22	0.22	73.33	73.33	0.10	0.10
Furman	SC	0.21	0.21	44.83	44.83	-0.02	-0.02
Samford	SC	0.21	0.21	32.14	32.14	-0.07	-0.07
Belmont	ASun	0.20	0.20	78.79	78.79	0.12	0.12
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.20	0.20	80.00	80.00	0.12	0.12
Florida St.	ACC	0.20	0.20	72.73	72.73	0.09	0.09
Central Florida	CUSA	0.19	0.19	66.67	66.67	0.06	0.06
North Florida	ASun	0.18	0.18	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.18	0.18	85.29	85.29	0.12	0.12
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.17	0.17	63.64	63.64	0.05	0.05
Marquette	BE	0.17	0.17	78.12	78.12	0.10	0.10
Clemson	ACC	0.16	0.16	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.16	0.16	60.00	60.00	0.03	0.03
Miami FL	ACC	0.15	0.15	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Syracuse	BE	0.15	0.15	93.94	93.94	0.13	0.13
Xavier	A10	0.15	0.15	63.64	63.64	0.04	0.04
St. John's	BE	0.15	0.15	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.14	0.14	74.19	74.19	0.07	0.07
UAB	CUSA	0.14	0.14	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Marshall	CUSA	0.14	0.14	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.13	0.13	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.13	0.13	57.69	57.69	0.02	0.02
Mercer	ASun	0.13	0.13	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Jacksonville	ASun	0.13	0.13	26.67	26.67	-0.06	-0.06
Lipscomb	ASun	0.13	0.13	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Ohio St.	B10	0.13	0.13	79.41	79.41	0.07	0.07
Grambling	SWAC	0.13	0.13	14.29	14.29	-0.09	-0.09
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.13	0.13	35.48	35.48	-0.04	-0.04
Houston	CUSA	0.12	0.12	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Notre Dame	BE	0.12	0.12	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Michigan	B10	0.12	0.12	71.88	71.88	0.05	0.05
Rutgers	BE	0.12	0.12	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
West Virginia	BE	0.12	0.12	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
DePaul	BE	0.12	0.12	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
East Carolina	CUSA	0.12	0.12	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.12	0.12	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
High Point	BSth	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.11	0.11	28.57	28.57	-0.05	-0.05
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.11	0.11	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
North Texas	SB	0.11	0.11	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Troy	SB	0.11	0.11	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.11	0.11	6.67	6.67	-0.09	-0.09
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.11	0.11	34.62	34.62	-0.03	-0.03
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.11	0.11	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.11	0.11	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.10	0.10	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.10	0.10	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Presbyterian	BSth	0.10	0.10	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M	B12	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Stetson	ASun	0.10	0.10	28.57	28.57	-0.04	-0.04
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.10	0.10	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Southern California	P12	0.10	0.10	18.75	18.75	-0.06	-0.06
Radford	BSth	0.10	0.10	13.33	13.33	-0.07	-0.07
Providence	BE	0.10	0.10	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.10	0.10	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Arizona	P12	0.10	0.10	67.65	67.65	0.04	0.04
Charlotte	A10	0.10	0.10	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.10	0.10	96.43	96.43	0.09	0.09
Seton Hall	BE	0.10	0.10	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
South Florida	BE	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Cincinnati	BE	0.10	0.10	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.10	0.10	64.71	64.71	0.03	0.03
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.10	0.10	20.00	20.00	-0.06	-0.06
Penn St.	B10	0.10	0.10	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.10	0.10	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Denver	SB	0.09	0.09	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
Arkansas St.	SB	0.08	0.08	39.39	39.39	-0.02	-0.02
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
South Alabama	SB	0.08	0.08	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.08	0.08	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.08	0.08	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Southern Utah	Sum	0.08	0.08	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.08	0.08	6.90	6.90	-0.07	-0.07
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	10.34	10.34	-0.06	-0.06
Bowling Green	MAC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
California	P12	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Detroit	Horz	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Indiana	B10	0.08	0.08	75.76	75.76	0.04	0.04
Longwood	ind	0.08	0.08	22.22	22.22	-0.04	-0.04
Dayton	A10	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Maryland	ACC	0.07	0.07	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Rider	MAAC	0.07	0.07	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas	B12	0.07	0.07	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Robert Morris	NEC	0.07	0.07	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
James Madison	CAA	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Campbell	BSth	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.05	0.05	29.63	29.63	-0.02	-0.02
IUPUI	Sum	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.05	0.05	28.00	28.00	-0.02	-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.05	0.05	82.35	82.35	0.03	0.03
Holy Cross	Pat	0.05	0.05	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Long Beach St.	BW	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.02	0.02
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Texas Christian	MWC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.05	0.05	65.38	65.38	0.02	0.02
Bucknell	Pat	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Lafayette	Pat	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Monmouth	NEC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Oregon	P12	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Portland	WCC	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.05	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Tulsa	CUSA	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Army	Pat	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Florida International	SB	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Butler	Horz	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Utah	P12	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
George Washington	A10	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Hawaii	WAC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	32.00	32.00	-0.01	-0.01
Towson	CAA	0.03	0.03	3.12	3.12	-0.02	-0.02
Valparaiso	Horz	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	19.23	19.23	-0.02	-0.02
Baylor	B12	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Oklahoma	B12	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Purdue	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
UC Irvine	BW	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Utah St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Wichita St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	83.87	83.87	0.02	0.02
Albany	AE	0.02	0.02	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.02	0.02	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.02	0.02	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.02	0.02	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Fairfield	MAAC	0.02	0.02	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.02	0.02	86.21	86.21	0.02	0.02
La Salle	A10	0.02	0.02	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Maine	AE	0.02	0.02	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.02	0.02	20.69	20.69	-0.01	-0.01
Temple	A10	0.02	0.02	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
Washington	P12	0.02	0.02	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01