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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Tennessee

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:8.0
Current RPI:8
Expected SOS:18
Current SOS:18
Current Record:25-8
Expected Record:25-8
Current Conf Record:15-6
Expected Conf Record:15-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:8-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:2-0
Current OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC RPI:15
Expected OOC SOS:24



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-88.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tennessee.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Presbyterian (319.0)BSthH88-53W100%0.0
11-14High Point (273.0)BSthH84-53W100%0.0
11-22Purdue (9.0)B10N75-78W100%0.0
11-23Villanova (2.0)BEN85-76L0%0.0
11-24North Carolina St. (64.0)ACCN58-67W100%0.0
11-29Mercer (174.0)SCH84-60W100%0.0
12-3Georgia Tech (161.0)ACCA70-77W100%0.0
12-9Lipscomb (101.0)ASunH81-71W100%0.0
12-17North Carolina (4.0)ACCH73-78L0%0.0
12-20Furman (97.0)SCH66-61W100%0.0
12-23Wake Forest (160.0)ACCA60-79W100%0.0
12-30Arkansas (30.0)SECA95-93L0%0.0
1-2Auburn (15.0)SECH84-94L0%0.0
1-6Kentucky (10.0)SECH76-65W100%0.0
1-9Vanderbilt (132.0)SECA84-92W100%0.0
1-13Texas A&M (29.0)SECH75-62W100%0.0
1-17Missouri (43.0)SECA59-55L0%0.0
1-20South Carolina (90.0)SECA63-70W100%0.0
1-23Vanderbilt (132.0)SECH67-62W100%0.0
1-27Iowa St. (144.0)B12A45-68W100%0.0
1-31LSU (95.0)SECH84-61W100%0.0
2-3Mississippi (141.0)SECH94-61W100%0.0
2-6Kentucky (10.0)SECA59-61W100%0.0
2-10Alabama (42.0)SECA78-50L0%0.0
2-13South Carolina (90.0)SECH70-67W100%0.0
2-17Georgia (79.0)SECA73-62L0%0.0
2-21Florida (46.0)SECH62-57W100%0.0
2-24Mississippi (141.0)SECA65-73W100%0.0
2-27Mississippi St. (73.0)SECA54-76W100%0.0
3-3Georgia (79.0)SECH66-61W100%0.0
3-9Mississippi St. (73.0)SECN62-59W100%0.0
3-10Arkansas (30.0)SECN84-66W100%0.0
3-11Kentucky (10.0)SECN72-77L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tennessee's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Tennessee's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Tennessee.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TennesseeSEC26.1926.1976.1676.1613.7013.70
KentuckySEC5.155.1574.1974.192.492.49
GeorgiaSEC3.753.7554.8454.840.360.36
ArkansasSEC3.713.7168.7568.751.391.39
South CarolinaSEC3.703.7053.3353.330.250.25
Mississippi St.SEC3.693.6970.0070.001.471.47
VanderbiltSEC3.683.6840.0040.00-0.74-0.74
MississippiSEC3.663.6640.0040.00-0.73-0.73
AlabamaSEC2.292.2954.5554.550.210.21
MissouriSEC2.282.2860.0060.000.460.46
FloridaSEC2.252.2564.5264.520.650.65
LSUSEC2.212.2156.6756.670.290.29
AuburnSEC2.212.2177.4277.421.211.21
Texas A&MSEC2.192.1964.5264.520.630.63
North Carolina St.ACC1.661.6667.7467.740.590.59
Georgia TechACC1.661.6641.9441.94-0.27-0.27
North CarolinaACC1.661.6670.5970.590.680.68
Wake ForestACC1.631.6336.6736.67-0.44-0.44
PresbyterianBSth1.591.5928.5728.57-0.68-0.68
MercerSC1.591.5955.1755.170.160.16
High PointBSth1.571.5742.3142.31-0.24-0.24
FurmanSC1.571.5770.0070.000.630.63
LipscombASun1.561.5671.4371.430.670.67
PurdueB101.541.5484.8584.851.071.07
Iowa St.B121.541.5443.3343.33-0.21-0.21
VillanovaBE1.521.5287.8887.881.151.15
WoffordSC0.250.2560.0060.000.050.05
Virginia TechACC0.230.2365.6265.620.070.07
ClemsonACC0.230.2371.8871.880.100.10
DukeACC0.210.2178.7978.790.120.12
WinthropBSth0.200.2057.1457.140.030.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.190.1971.8871.880.080.08
Notre DameACC0.190.1957.5857.580.030.03
VirginiaACC0.190.1993.9493.940.160.16
LouisvilleACC0.180.1860.6160.610.040.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.180.1861.2961.290.040.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.170.1777.4277.420.100.10
Western CarolinaSC0.170.1736.6736.67-0.05-0.05
North FloridaASun0.170.1736.6736.67-0.05-0.05
TexasB120.170.1757.5857.580.030.03
SamfordSC0.170.1726.6726.67-0.08-0.08
SyracuseACC0.160.1660.6160.610.030.03
West VirginiaB120.160.1670.5970.590.070.07
MarquetteBE0.160.1659.3859.380.030.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.160.1642.8642.86-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.160.1654.8454.840.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.160.1637.9337.93-0.04-0.04
RadfordBSth0.160.1662.5062.500.040.04
VMISC0.150.1525.0025.00-0.07-0.07
Kansas St.B120.140.1466.6766.670.050.05
Boston CollegeACC0.140.1455.8855.880.020.02
KansasB120.140.1479.4179.410.080.08
TempleAmer0.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.140.1413.3313.33-0.10-0.10
The CitadelSC0.130.1327.5927.59-0.06-0.06
PittsburghACC0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.120.1276.6776.670.060.06
Oklahoma St.B120.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.120.1264.5264.520.030.03
OklahomaB120.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
Miami FLACC0.120.1270.9770.970.050.05
ButlerBE0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
MichiganB100.110.1179.4179.410.070.07
MinnesotaB100.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.110.1146.4346.43-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.100.1072.7372.730.050.05
ChattanoogaSC0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
USC UpstateASun0.100.1010.7110.71-0.08-0.08
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.1024.2424.24-0.05-0.05
Alcorn St.SWAC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.100.1080.0080.000.060.06
TCUB120.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Texas TechB120.100.1072.7372.730.040.04
Illinois St.MVC0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
HoustonAmer0.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
MassachusettsA100.090.0939.3939.39-0.02-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.090.0930.7730.77-0.04-0.04
Northern IowaMVC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.090.0979.4179.410.050.05
Penn St.B100.090.0961.7661.760.020.02
Seton HallBE0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
ConnecticutAmer0.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
StetsonASun0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
BaylorB120.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
MemphisAmer0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
UCFAmer0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Green BayHorz0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
UtahP120.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
IllinoisB100.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0788.2488.240.050.05
DaytonA100.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
USCP120.070.0767.6567.650.030.03
BryantNEC0.070.079.689.68-0.06-0.06
St. John'sBE0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Fort WayneSum0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
HarvardIvy0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
RutgersB100.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.070.0765.5265.520.020.02
VermontAE0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
BucknellPat0.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0544.4444.44-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.050.053.333.33-0.05-0.05
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Arizona St.P120.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
BradleyMVC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Little RockSB0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
WyomingMWC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
IowaB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
HofstraCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0584.8584.850.030.03
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
StanfordP120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.040.0433.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.040.0432.2632.26-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.040.0464.5264.520.010.01
DePaulBE0.040.0435.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.040.0463.3363.330.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
MarylandB100.040.0458.0658.060.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.040.0428.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.040.0469.7069.700.020.02
WisconsinB100.040.0445.4545.45-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.040.0484.8584.850.030.03
Michigan St.B100.040.0487.8887.880.030.03
Ohio St.B100.040.0475.0075.000.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0377.4277.420.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
ColoradoP120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
DrexelCAA0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
DrakeMVC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0216.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
WagnerNEC0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0215.6215.62-0.02-0.02
CornellIvy0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
George MasonA100.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.020.0212.5012.50-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
Murray St.OVC0.020.0282.7682.760.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.020.0216.1316.13-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
UMKCWAC0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
YaleIvy0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.020.029.689.68-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0226.9226.92-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
IndianaB100.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
IUPUIHorz0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
PennIvy0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
ValparaisoMVC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
PortlandWCC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00