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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Tennessee

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:82.0
Current RPI:82
Expected SOS:26
Current SOS:26
Current Record:15-16
Expected Record:15-16
Current Conf Record:8-11
Expected Conf Record:8-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:85
Expected OOC SOS:18



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-1682.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tennessee.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Chattanooga (139.0)SCH69-82L0%0.0
11-15Appalachian St. (301.0)SBH103-94W100%0.0
11-21Wisconsin (35.0)B10N74-62L0%0.0
11-22Oregon (9.0)P12N69-65L0%0.0
12-3Georgia Tech (105.0)ACCH81-58W100%0.0
12-6Presbyterian (347.0)BSthH90-50W100%0.0
12-11North Carolina (5.0)ACCA73-71L0%0.0
12-13Tennessee Tech (277.0)OVCH74-68W100%0.0
12-15Lipscomb (189.0)ASunH92-77W100%0.0
12-18Gonzaga (8.0)WCCN76-86L0%0.0
12-22East Tennessee St. (55.0)SCA68-72W100%0.0
12-29Texas A&M (92.0)SECA63-73W100%0.0
1-3Arkansas (28.0)SECH78-82L0%0.0
1-7Florida (10.0)SECA83-70L0%0.0
1-11South Carolina (42.0)SECH60-70L0%0.0
1-14Vanderbilt (44.0)SECA75-87W100%0.0
1-17Mississippi (77.0)SECA80-69L0%0.0
1-21Mississippi St. (150.0)SECH91-74W100%0.0
1-24Kentucky (3.0)SECH82-80W100%0.0
1-28Kansas St. (57.0)B12H70-58W100%0.0
1-31Auburn (113.0)SECA77-87W100%0.0
2-4Mississippi St. (150.0)SECA64-59L0%0.0
2-8Mississippi (77.0)SECH75-66W100%0.0
2-11Georgia (52.0)SECH75-76L0%0.0
2-14Kentucky (3.0)SECA83-58L0%0.0
2-18Missouri (257.0)SECH90-70W100%0.0
2-22Vanderbilt (44.0)SECH56-67L0%0.0
2-25South Carolina (42.0)SECA82-55L0%0.0
3-1LSU (193.0)SECA92-82L0%0.0
3-4Alabama (78.0)SECH59-54W100%0.0
3-9Georgia (52.0)SECN59-57L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tennessee's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Tennessee's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Tennessee.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TennesseeSEC26.0826.0844.5344.53-2.86-2.86
KentuckySEC3.923.9287.5087.502.942.94
GeorgiaSEC3.903.9053.3353.330.260.26
VanderbiltSEC3.883.8856.2556.250.480.48
Mississippi St.SEC3.873.8750.0050.000.000.00
MississippiSEC3.853.8561.2961.290.870.87
South CarolinaSEC3.853.8565.5265.521.191.19
AlabamaSEC2.412.4159.3859.380.450.45
ArkansasSEC2.362.3672.7372.731.071.07
FloridaSEC2.352.3574.1974.191.141.14
MissouriSEC2.312.3125.8125.81-1.12-1.12
Texas A&MSEC2.282.2853.3353.330.150.15
AuburnSEC2.262.2658.0658.060.360.36
LSUSEC2.262.2630.0030.00-0.90-0.90
North CarolinaACC1.741.7478.1278.120.980.98
ChattanoogaSC1.741.7457.1457.140.250.25
East Tennessee St.SC1.721.7280.6580.651.051.05
Georgia TechACC1.711.7153.3353.330.110.11
Tennessee TechOVC1.691.6934.4834.48-0.53-0.53
LipscombASun1.691.6958.6258.620.290.29
GonzagaWCC1.641.6496.8896.881.541.54
OregonP121.641.6484.3884.381.131.13
WisconsinB101.641.6472.7372.730.740.74
Appalachian St.SB1.611.6125.9325.93-0.78-0.78
Kansas St.B121.611.6162.5062.500.400.40
PresbyterianBSth1.611.6111.1111.11-1.25-1.25
FurmanSC0.210.2163.3363.330.060.06
ClemsonACC0.200.2053.1253.120.010.01
WoffordSC0.190.1943.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.180.1842.8642.86-0.03-0.03
MercerSC0.180.1843.3343.33-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.180.1836.6736.67-0.05-0.05
BelmontOVC0.180.1877.7877.780.100.10
UNC GreensboroSC0.160.1670.9770.970.070.07
DukeACC0.150.1577.1477.140.080.08
SyracuseACC0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
TexasB120.150.1533.3333.33-0.05-0.05
KansasB120.150.1587.5087.500.110.11
BaylorB120.150.1577.4277.420.080.08
Coastal CarolinaSB0.140.1445.1645.16-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.130.1330.0030.00-0.05-0.05
VMISC0.130.1314.2914.29-0.10-0.10
Western CarolinaSC0.130.1323.3323.33-0.07-0.07
Georgia St.SB0.130.1360.0060.000.030.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.130.1332.1432.14-0.05-0.05
Gardner WebbBSth0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.130.1346.4346.43-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.130.1346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.130.1353.5753.570.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
ArizonaP120.120.1288.2488.240.100.10
Tennessee MartinOVC0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
MichiganB100.120.1268.5768.570.050.05
OklahomaB120.120.1235.4835.48-0.04-0.04
UCLAP120.120.1287.8887.880.090.09
MarquetteBE0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
Iowa St.B120.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
Santa ClaraWCC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
MinnesotaB100.120.1272.7372.730.050.05
Arkansas St.SB0.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.110.1170.0070.000.040.04
High PointBSth0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.100.1062.0762.070.030.03
Murray St.OVC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.100.1036.0036.00-0.03-0.03
MemphisAmer0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
PittsburghACC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.100.1028.1228.12-0.04-0.04
Miami FLACC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Texas TechB120.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
West VirginiaB120.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
Oregon St.P120.100.1012.9012.90-0.07-0.07
Michigan St.B100.100.1057.5857.580.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.100.1076.6776.670.050.05
Oklahoma St.B120.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Arizona St.P120.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.100.1087.8887.880.070.07
ValparaisoHorz0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
IndianaB100.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
CampbellBSth0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Little RockSB0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
NJITASun0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.086.906.90-0.07-0.07
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0876.6776.670.040.04
DavidsonA100.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
StetsonASun0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Seton HallBE0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
Notre DameACC0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
Wake ForestACC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Florida St.ACC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
TulaneAmer0.080.0819.3519.35-0.05-0.05
USCP120.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
VirginiaACC0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
TCUB120.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
CaliforniaP120.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
MontanaBSky0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
PacificWCC0.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0787.5087.500.050.05
CreightonBE0.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
LibertyBSth0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Texas St.SB0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
TroySB0.060.0658.8258.820.010.01
WinthropBSth0.060.0680.0080.000.030.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0544.4444.44-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
Holy CrossPat0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
VermontAE0.050.0584.8584.850.040.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
George WashingtonA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
LehighPat0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
UCFAmer0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
UMKCWAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Penn St.B100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
PurdueB100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
BradleyMVC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
ColoradoP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
StanfordP120.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
WashingtonP120.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Washington St.P120.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.050.0555.1755.170.000.00
MarylandB100.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
ButlerBE0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Ohio St.B100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
RutgersB100.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
AmericanPat0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
DenverSum0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.033.333.33-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
DetroitHorz0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0329.4129.41-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
UABCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
AkronMAC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
ArmyPat0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
BryantNEC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
HawaiiBW0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
South DakotaSum0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
UNLVMWC0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.020.0223.0823.08-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.020.0210.3410.34-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
NebraskaB100.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0260.7160.710.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00