live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


Tennessee

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:130.0
Current RPI:179
Expected SOS:25
Current SOS:72
Current Record:2-3
Expected Record:12-18
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:2-3
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:156
Expected OOC SOS:32



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-1042.00.01%
19-1138.90.14%
18-1248.40.56%
17-1359.31.57%
16-1471.44.05%
15-1585.98.19%
14-16101.013.61%
13-17117.818.10%
12-18134.318.86%
11-19152.116.32%
10-20169.610.47%
9-21188.65.42%
8-22204.12.04%
7-23222.70.48%
6-24234.60.14%
5-25252.00.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tennessee.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Chattanooga (86.7)SCH69-82L0%0.0
11-15Appalachian St. (269.1)SBH103-94W100%0.0
11-21Wisconsin (22.2)B10N74-62L0%0.0
11-22Oregon (34.2)P12N69-65L0%0.0
12-3Georgia Tech (191.7)ACCH81-58W100%0.0
12-6Presbyterian (322.6)BSthH0-097%22.7
12-11North Carolina (5.3)ACCA0-04%-21.4
12-13Tennessee Tech (305.9)OVCH0-092%17.2
12-15Lipscomb (293.7)ASunH0-090%15.5
12-18Gonzaga (10.2)WCCN0-013%-13.4
12-22East Tennessee St. (70.7)SCA0-029%-6.7
12-29Texas A&M (42.8)SECA0-016%-11.7
1-3Arkansas (43.1)SECH0-039%-3.4
1-7Florida (9.5)SECA0-010%-15.7
1-11South Carolina (19.4)SECH0-028%-7.1
1-14Vanderbilt (79.2)SECA0-030%-6.2
1-17Mississippi (120.3)SECA0-044%-1.9
1-21Mississippi St. (152.0)SECH0-068%5.7
1-24Kentucky (9.3)SECH0-012%-13.8
1-28Kansas St. (77.0)B12H0-038%-3.7
1-31Auburn (88.3)SECA0-034%-4.8
2-4Mississippi St. (152.0)SECA0-048%-0.6
2-8Mississippi (120.3)SECH0-064%4.4
2-11Georgia (71.7)SECH0-048%-0.6
2-14Kentucky (9.3)SECA0-05%-20.1
2-18Missouri (183.4)SECH0-067%5.3
2-22Vanderbilt (79.2)SECH0-050%0.1
2-25South Carolina (19.4)SECA0-013%-13.4
3-1LSU (93.4)SECA0-038%-3.5
3-4Alabama (122.0)SECH0-054%1.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tennessee's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Tennessee's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Tennessee.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TennesseeSEC28.4426.1126.0936.22-13.60-7.19
Mississippi St.SEC0.003.9675.0048.470.00-0.12
MississippiSEC0.003.9475.0048.680.00-0.10
VanderbiltSEC0.003.9450.0045.310.00-0.37
KentuckySEC0.003.9387.5082.200.002.53
South CarolinaSEC0.003.93100.0078.810.002.27
FloridaSEC0.002.3887.5074.740.001.18
GeorgiaSEC0.002.3557.1452.040.000.10
AlabamaSEC0.002.3257.1451.990.000.09
MissouriSEC0.002.3257.1442.860.00-0.33
Texas A&MSEC0.002.3266.6765.590.000.72
AuburnSEC0.002.3085.7157.180.000.33
ArkansasSEC0.002.3085.7166.360.000.75
LSUSEC0.002.3071.4348.740.00-0.06
North CarolinaACC1.271.8087.5081.490.951.14
ChattanoogaSC10.001.8066.6772.043.330.80
East Tennessee St.SC0.001.7883.3380.160.001.07
Tennessee TechOVC0.711.7525.0028.24-0.36-0.76
LipscombASun0.001.7512.5033.90-0.00-0.56
Georgia TechACC10.001.7566.6737.253.33-0.45
OregonP1210.001.6971.4371.294.290.72
GonzagaWCC0.001.69100.0092.090.001.43
WisconsinB1010.001.6975.0075.245.000.85
Appalachian St.SB10.001.6720.0030.95-6.00-0.64
Kansas St.B120.001.6787.5059.220.000.31
PresbyterianBSth0.001.6733.3327.99-0.00-0.73
FurmanSC0.000.2033.3356.24-0.000.03
Morehead St.OVC0.000.2016.6738.58-0.00-0.05
BelmontOVC0.000.2050.0064.350.000.06
ClemsonACC0.000.1971.4354.860.000.02
WoffordSC0.000.170.0034.81-0.00-0.05
MercerSC0.000.1742.8647.76-0.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.000.1712.5034.79-0.00-0.05
SyracuseACC0.560.1671.4366.700.240.06
The CitadelSC0.000.1550.0030.350.00-0.06
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.1571.4356.260.000.02
VMISC0.000.150.0016.78-0.00-0.10
Western CarolinaSC0.830.1528.5723.12-0.36-0.08
Coastal CarolinaSB0.710.1525.0038.83-0.36-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.000.1544.4441.30-0.00-0.03
Georgia St.SB0.000.1450.0060.620.000.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.1485.7170.060.000.06
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.1475.0051.040.000.00
DukeACC0.830.1488.8978.400.650.08
UCLAP120.000.14100.0086.690.000.10
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1475.0054.670.000.01
TexasB120.000.1457.1438.680.00-0.03
Virginia TechACC0.000.1485.7162.990.000.04
BaylorB120.620.14100.0076.590.620.07
Iowa St.B120.000.1471.4368.070.000.05
KansasB120.000.1487.5075.860.000.07
MinnesotaB100.000.1387.5068.020.000.05
OklahomaB120.560.1371.4348.350.24-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.710.1275.0066.370.360.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.1220.0037.65-0.00-0.03
SamfordSC0.000.1262.5056.520.000.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.1233.3352.11-0.000.00
High PointBSth0.000.1242.8646.48-0.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.620.1142.8656.04-0.090.01
ArizonaP120.000.1175.0068.370.000.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.1120.0041.92-0.00-0.02
Oregon St.P120.000.1125.0022.93-0.00-0.06
DaytonA100.000.1171.4373.490.000.05
Michigan St.B100.000.1155.5658.610.000.02
ValparaisoHorz0.620.1185.7174.990.450.05
MemphisAmer0.000.1175.0055.500.000.01
MichiganB100.000.1175.0066.460.000.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.110.0035.95-0.00-0.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.1133.3332.35-0.00-0.04
Boston CollegeACC0.000.1157.1429.790.00-0.04
LouisvilleACC0.000.1187.5075.590.000.06
MarquetteBE0.000.1175.0066.410.000.04
Texas TechB120.000.1187.5062.040.000.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.1187.5076.230.000.06
Oklahoma St.B120.000.1171.4354.310.000.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0957.1467.260.000.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.710.0925.0030.23-0.36-0.04
Little RockSB0.000.0966.6761.330.000.02
RadfordBSth0.000.0928.5734.28-0.00-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0962.5067.390.000.03
StetsonASun0.000.0928.5728.24-0.00-0.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0950.0046.410.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0957.1471.940.000.04
DavidsonA100.830.0971.4363.170.360.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0933.3336.74-0.00-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.090.0013.46-0.00-0.06
South AlabamaSB0.000.0871.4357.970.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0850.0050.840.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.710.0850.0058.040.000.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.080.0027.12-0.00-0.04
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0825.0020.78-0.00-0.05
USCP120.000.08100.0076.680.000.04
Murray St.OVC0.000.0850.0061.240.000.02
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0875.0070.620.000.03
Notre DameACC0.000.08100.0077.380.000.05
Seton HallBE0.000.0871.4354.560.000.01
TulaneAmer0.710.0812.5023.93-0.54-0.04
Wake ForestACC0.000.0875.0054.490.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0862.5040.460.00-0.02
MontanaBSky0.000.0825.0048.10-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0875.0049.180.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.000.0887.5078.510.000.05
West VirginiaB120.000.0885.7183.660.000.05
Florida St.ACC0.000.0887.5065.250.000.02
Miami FLACC0.000.0875.0066.100.000.03
CreightonBE0.560.08100.0076.630.560.04
IndianaB100.000.0887.5074.490.000.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0825.0055.33-0.000.01
TCUB120.000.08100.0061.680.000.02
CampbellBSth0.000.0642.8639.20-0.00-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0642.8643.60-0.00-0.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0633.3348.07-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0620.0021.80-0.00-0.03
Texas St.SB0.000.0650.0043.390.00-0.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0650.0071.070.000.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.710.0616.6729.81-0.48-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0657.1459.280.000.01
NJITASun0.000.0650.0049.780.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0671.4363.930.000.02
FordhamA100.000.0650.0041.310.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.830.0671.4351.460.360.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0614.2942.67-0.00-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd1.270.0612.5030.39-0.95-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0657.1450.080.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0642.8630.92-0.00-0.02
OhioMAC0.710.0683.3371.480.480.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.620.060.0018.64-0.62-0.04
SouthernSWAC0.710.0640.0058.82-0.140.01
BYUWCC0.000.0662.5066.900.000.02
CaliforniaP120.000.0685.7162.220.000.01
ColoradoP120.000.0675.0062.620.000.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0614.2936.02-0.00-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.000.0637.5047.37-0.00-0.00
LehighPat0.000.0642.8666.67-0.000.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0650.0071.020.000.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0633.3346.38-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0657.1471.520.000.02
PacificWCC0.000.0642.8646.14-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.0642.8633.23-0.00-0.02
PortlandWCC0.000.0650.0054.070.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.06100.0089.330.000.04
San DiegoWCC0.000.0637.5031.23-0.00-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0685.7153.560.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0657.1433.230.00-0.02
StanfordP120.000.0666.6758.060.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.0685.7176.240.000.03
UMKCWAC0.000.0662.5052.330.000.00
UtahP120.000.0675.0059.790.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0620.0035.47-0.00-0.02
VCUA100.000.0675.0073.060.000.03
VermontAE0.000.0662.5071.320.000.02
WashingtonP120.000.0657.1452.370.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.620.0533.3339.61-0.21-0.01
GeorgetownBE1.180.0555.5647.890.13-0.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0585.7178.280.000.03
IllinoisB100.000.0562.5050.710.000.00
Penn St.B100.710.0566.6746.420.24-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0528.5723.78-0.00-0.03
Washington St.P120.000.0542.8628.98-0.00-0.02
BradleyMVC0.000.0542.8627.96-0.00-0.02
BucknellPat0.000.0566.6766.340.000.02
ButlerBE0.000.05100.0074.440.000.03
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0537.5044.39-0.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0528.5731.44-0.00-0.02
DuquesneA100.000.0544.4442.03-0.00-0.01
Green BayHorz0.000.0542.8651.95-0.000.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0562.5043.220.00-0.01
MarylandB100.000.0587.5059.330.000.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0571.4358.600.000.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0587.5068.610.000.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.050.0022.31-0.00-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.560.0514.2931.28-0.40-0.02
PurdueB100.000.0575.0075.340.000.03
RutgersB100.000.0585.7145.370.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0542.8645.30-0.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0377.7849.900.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.830.0322.2226.33-0.46-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0312.5030.68-0.00-0.01
TroySB0.000.0342.8636.19-0.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0333.3346.01-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0387.5082.360.000.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0316.6739.78-0.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0371.4354.860.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0357.1450.420.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0371.4356.250.000.00
DetroitHorz0.000.030.0021.22-0.00-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0328.5732.62-0.00-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0350.0041.990.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0325.0039.59-0.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0342.8638.63-0.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0350.0054.070.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0383.3377.100.000.02
AkronMAC0.000.0371.4368.980.000.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0034.27-0.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.0314.2931.35-0.00-0.01
ArmyPat0.620.0342.8650.09-0.090.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.0342.8647.11-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.000.0325.0047.82-0.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0328.5742.90-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0366.6761.550.000.01
DenverSum0.000.0342.8645.01-0.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0366.6740.030.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0355.5641.690.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0025.23-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0020.75-0.00-0.02
OaklandHorz0.000.0385.7177.150.000.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0371.4368.050.000.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0328.5736.95-0.00-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0360.0069.120.000.01
South DakotaSum0.000.0350.0046.020.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0333.3339.94-0.00-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0375.0061.490.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0350.0066.300.000.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0362.5043.800.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0366.6757.300.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0337.5035.09-0.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0375.0086.710.000.02
XavierBE0.000.0387.5070.890.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.560.0320.0022.75-0.33-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0371.4360.540.000.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0022.58-0.00-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.000.0371.4370.210.000.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0350.0050.450.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0312.5029.15-0.00-0.01
IowaB100.000.0337.5037.74-0.00-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.030.0038.27-0.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0311.1148.19-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.000.0357.1444.890.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0342.8655.09-0.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0357.1458.940.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0333.3352.84-0.000.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0375.0066.170.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0322.2241.71-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0357.1449.130.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0371.4370.390.000.01
UABCUSA0.000.0350.0059.920.000.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.030.0016.68-0.00-0.02