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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Tennessee

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:143.0
Current RPI:143
Expected SOS:54
Current SOS:54
Current Record:15-19
Expected Record:15-19
Current Conf Record:8-13
Expected Conf Record:8-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-10
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-1
Current OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:113
Expected OOC SOS:53



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-19143.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tennessee.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13UNC Asheville (137.0)BSthH82-78W100%0.0
11-16Georgia Tech (69.0)ACCA69-67L0%0.0
11-19Marshall (128.0)CUSAH84-74W100%0.0
11-22Gardner Webb (210.0)BSthH89-64W100%0.0
11-24Army (214.0)PatH95-80W100%0.0
11-27George Washington (68.0)A10N73-70L0%0.0
11-28Nebraska (165.0)B10N71-82L0%0.0
12-12Butler (57.0)BEA94-86L0%0.0
12-16Florida Atlantic (300.0)CUSAH81-62W100%0.0
12-19Gonzaga (46.0)WCCA86-79L0%0.0
12-22East Tennessee St. (85.0)SCH76-67W100%0.0
12-29Tennessee St. (152.0)OVCH74-69W100%0.0
1-2Auburn (175.0)SECA83-77L0%0.0
1-6Florida (55.0)SECH83-69W100%0.0
1-9Texas A&M (18.0)SECH88-92L0%0.0
1-13Georgia (62.0)SECA81-72L0%0.0
1-16Mississippi St. (154.0)SECA75-80W100%0.0
1-20Vanderbilt (63.0)SECH74-88L0%0.0
1-23South Carolina (65.0)SECH78-69W100%0.0
1-26Alabama (73.0)SECA63-57L0%0.0
1-30TCU (174.0)B12A75-63L0%0.0
2-2Kentucky (11.0)SECH84-77W100%0.0
2-6Arkansas (133.0)SECA85-67L0%0.0
2-9Auburn (175.0)SECH71-45W100%0.0
2-13Missouri (222.0)SECA75-64L0%0.0
2-18Kentucky (11.0)SECA80-70L0%0.0
2-20LSU (94.0)SECH81-65W100%0.0
2-24South Carolina (65.0)SECA84-58L0%0.0
2-27Arkansas (133.0)SECH65-75L0%0.0
3-1Vanderbilt (63.0)SECA86-69L0%0.0
3-5Mississippi (96.0)SECH60-83L0%0.0
3-9Auburn (175.0)SECN97-59W100%0.0
3-10Vanderbilt (63.0)SECN65-67W100%0.0
3-11LSU (94.0)SECN84-75L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tennessee's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Tennessee's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Tennessee.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TennesseeSEC26.2526.2540.1540.15-5.17-5.17
VanderbiltSEC5.015.0158.6258.620.860.86
AuburnSEC4.964.9635.7135.71-1.42-1.42
KentuckySEC3.613.6178.1278.122.032.03
LSUSEC3.583.5858.0658.060.580.58
ArkansasSEC3.533.5346.6746.67-0.24-0.24
South CarolinaSEC3.493.4975.8675.861.811.81
Texas A&MSEC2.292.2975.7675.761.181.18
GeorgiaSEC2.252.2558.0658.060.360.36
AlabamaSEC2.232.2354.8454.840.220.22
FloridaSEC2.202.2059.3859.380.410.41
MississippiSEC2.122.1261.2961.290.480.48
Mississippi St.SEC2.112.1146.6746.67-0.14-0.14
MissouriSEC2.092.0930.0030.00-0.84-0.84
Gardner WebbBSth1.651.6548.2848.28-0.06-0.06
Georgia TechACC1.561.5656.2556.250.200.20
UNC AshevilleBSth1.541.5466.6766.670.510.51
George WashingtonA101.521.5268.7568.750.570.57
ArmyPat1.521.5260.0060.000.300.30
East Tennessee St.SC1.521.5267.7467.740.540.54
MarshallCUSA1.491.4953.1253.120.090.09
Florida AtlanticCUSA1.491.4923.3323.33-0.80-0.80
GonzagaWCC1.491.4977.4277.420.820.82
ButlerBE1.471.4766.6766.670.490.49
NebraskaB101.471.4745.4545.45-0.13-0.13
TCUB121.471.4734.3834.38-0.46-0.46
Tennessee St.OVC1.471.4766.6766.670.490.49
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.240.2470.9770.970.100.10
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.190.1957.6957.690.030.03
MercerSC0.190.1954.8454.840.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.180.1835.4835.48-0.05-0.05
WinthropBSth0.170.1768.9768.970.060.06
Charleston SouthernBSth0.170.1722.2222.22-0.09-0.09
XavierBE0.170.1784.3884.380.110.11
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.160.1646.6746.67-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.160.1622.5822.58-0.09-0.09
UABCUSA0.160.1680.6580.650.100.10
WoffordSC0.160.1643.3343.33-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.160.1654.8454.840.020.02
DaytonA100.160.1678.1278.120.090.09
PurdueB100.160.1676.4776.470.080.08
BaylorB120.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
KansasB120.160.1687.8887.880.120.12
Northwestern St.Slnd0.140.1420.8320.83-0.08-0.08
Oklahoma St.B120.140.1437.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Texas TechB120.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
Kansas St.B120.140.1451.5251.520.000.00
TexasB120.140.1462.5062.500.030.03
Austin PeayOVC0.120.1248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.120.1260.7160.710.030.03
CampbellBSth0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
LibertyBSth0.120.1234.4834.48-0.04-0.04
High PointBSth0.120.1264.2964.290.030.03
FurmanSC0.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
DePaulBE0.120.1229.0329.03-0.05-0.05
Western CarolinaSC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
ColgatePat0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.120.1275.7675.760.060.06
VillanovaBE0.110.1185.2985.290.080.08
Miami FLACC0.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
South FloridaAmer0.110.1124.2424.24-0.06-0.06
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
West VirginiaB120.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
Morehead St.OVC0.100.1058.6258.620.020.02
LipscombASun0.100.1032.2632.26-0.03-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
PresbyterianBSth0.100.1028.5728.57-0.04-0.04
RadfordBSth0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
VMISC0.090.0922.2222.22-0.05-0.05
Georgia SouthernSB0.090.0941.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0931.0331.03-0.04-0.04
UTSACUSA0.090.0913.3313.33-0.07-0.07
AmericanPat0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
MarquetteBE0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.090.0962.8662.860.020.02
Oral RobertsSum0.090.0941.3841.38-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.090.0984.3884.380.060.06
Illinois St.MVC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.090.0963.3363.330.020.02
OklahomaB120.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
LouisvilleACC0.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
RutgersB100.090.0919.3519.35-0.05-0.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.04-0.04
Loyola MDPat0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
ColoradoP120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
DrexelCAA0.070.0720.0020.00-0.04-0.04
GeorgetownBE0.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.070.0783.3383.330.050.05
HofstraCAA0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
New MexicoMWC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
MemphisAmer0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
LafayettePat0.070.0720.0020.00-0.04-0.04
NavyPat0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
The CitadelSC0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0724.2424.24-0.04-0.04
CreightonBE0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0770.0070.000.030.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0725.9325.93-0.03-0.03
BYUWCC0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
DetroitHorz0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0783.8783.870.050.05
Stony BrookAE0.070.0780.0080.000.040.04
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
AkronMAC0.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
Michigan St.B100.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
SamfordSC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
NorthwesternB100.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
DuquesneA100.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0779.4179.410.040.04
VCUA100.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
VirginiaACC0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
UCLAP120.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
DukeACC0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
MarylandB100.070.0775.0075.000.030.03
Penn St.B100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Arizona St.P120.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
StetsonASun0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0511.1111.11-0.04-0.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
BucknellPat0.050.0555.1755.170.000.00
LehighPat0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
ArizonaP120.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
IowaB100.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
TulaneAmer0.050.0535.2935.29-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.050.0523.0823.08-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.050.0544.1244.12-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0512.9012.90-0.03-0.03
Green BayHorz0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
WashingtonP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.040.0453.3353.330.000.00
DavidsonA100.040.0461.2961.290.010.01
HoustonAmer0.040.0470.9770.970.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.040.0464.5264.520.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.040.0426.9226.92-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.040.0464.5264.520.010.01
Saint LouisA100.040.0434.3834.38-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.040.0438.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.040.0433.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.040.0416.6716.67-0.03-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.040.0455.1755.170.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.040.0422.5822.58-0.02-0.02
SyracuseACC0.040.0459.3859.380.010.01
AlbanyAE0.040.0474.1974.190.020.02
IndianaB100.040.0478.1278.120.020.02
NJITASun0.040.0453.3353.330.000.00
WisconsinB100.040.0462.5062.500.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.040.0460.6160.610.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
ElonCAA0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MaineAE0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
UMKCWAC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
MontanaBSky0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.020.0210.7110.71-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
OregonP120.020.0281.8281.820.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
TroySB0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
Washington St.P120.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.020.0279.3179.310.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.020.0282.3582.350.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
VermontAE0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
WyomingMWC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
MinnesotaB100.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0222.8622.86-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01