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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Tennessee

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:96.0
Current RPI:96
Expected SOS:44
Current SOS:44
Current Record:16-16
Expected Record:16-16
Current Conf Record:8-12
Expected Conf Record:8-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-1
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:93
Expected OOC SOS:89



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-1696.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tennessee.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14VCU (15.0)A10N85-69L0%0.0
11-20Texas Southern (120.0)SWACH70-58W100%0.0
11-27Santa Clara (202.0)WCCN64-57W100%0.0
11-28Kansas (2.0)B12N82-67L0%0.0
11-30Marquette (147.0)BEN67-59L0%0.0
12-6Kansas St. (100.0)B12H65-64W100%0.0
12-14Butler (31.0)BEH67-55W100%0.0
12-17North Carolina St. (39.0)ACCA83-72L0%0.0
12-19Tennessee Tech (290.0)OVCH61-58W100%0.0
12-22Mercer (212.0)SCH64-54W100%0.0
12-27Tennessee St. (341.0)OVCH67-46W100%0.0
12-31East Tennessee St. (192.0)SCH71-61W100%0.0
1-7Mississippi St. (216.0)SECA47-61W100%0.0
1-10Alabama (85.0)SECH38-56L0%0.0
1-13Arkansas (19.0)SECH74-69W100%0.0
1-17Missouri (218.0)SECA51-59W100%0.0
1-20South Carolina (91.0)SECA62-66W100%0.0
1-24Texas A&M (67.0)SECH61-67L0%0.0
1-27Arkansas (19.0)SECA69-64L0%0.0
1-31Auburn (129.0)SECH71-63W100%0.0
2-3Mississippi St. (216.0)SECH66-71L0%0.0
2-7Georgia (38.0)SECA56-53L0%0.0
2-11Vanderbilt (104.0)SECA73-76W100%0.0
2-14LSU (57.0)SECH55-73L0%0.0
2-17Kentucky (1.0)SECH48-66L0%0.0
2-21Mississippi (60.0)SECA59-57L0%0.0
2-26Vanderbilt (104.0)SECH65-73L0%0.0
2-28Florida (72.0)SECA66-49L0%0.0
3-4LSU (57.0)SECA63-78W100%0.0
3-7South Carolina (91.0)SECH49-60L0%0.0
3-12Vanderbilt (104.0)SECN61-67W100%0.0
3-13Arkansas (19.0)SECN80-72L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tennessee's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Tennessee's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Tennessee.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TennesseeSEC26.2226.2246.1546.15-2.02-2.02
ArkansasSEC5.305.3077.4277.422.912.91
VanderbiltSEC5.255.2560.7160.711.121.12
Mississippi St.SEC3.783.7837.9337.93-0.91-0.91
South CarolinaSEC3.783.7850.0050.000.000.00
LSUSEC3.683.6870.0070.001.471.47
GeorgiaSEC2.392.3964.5264.520.690.69
AuburnSEC2.352.3542.4242.42-0.36-0.36
FloridaSEC2.322.3246.8846.88-0.14-0.14
KentuckySEC2.312.31100.00100.002.312.31
MississippiSEC2.292.2961.2961.290.520.52
AlabamaSEC2.272.2753.3353.330.150.15
MissouriSEC2.262.2626.6726.67-1.06-1.06
Texas A&MSEC2.242.2463.3363.330.600.60
Tennessee St.OVC1.691.6910.7110.71-1.33-1.33
Kansas St.B121.681.6848.3948.39-0.05-0.05
Tennessee TechOVC1.671.6737.0437.04-0.43-0.43
MercerSC1.671.6753.3353.330.110.11
East Tennessee St.SC1.661.6651.8551.850.060.06
KansasB121.661.6675.7675.760.850.85
Texas SouthernSWAC1.631.6366.6766.670.540.54
ButlerBE1.611.6170.9770.970.680.68
MarquetteBE1.611.6138.7138.71-0.36-0.36
VCUA101.591.5973.5373.530.750.75
North Carolina St.ACC1.561.5659.3859.380.290.29
Santa ClaraWCC1.561.5641.3841.38-0.27-0.27
BaylorB120.290.2971.8871.880.130.13
Western CarolinaSC0.290.2943.3343.33-0.04-0.04
Iowa St.B120.260.2675.7675.760.130.13
TCUB120.240.2454.5554.550.020.02
ClemsonACC0.240.2451.6151.610.010.01
XavierBE0.200.2061.7661.760.050.05
ChattanoogaSC0.180.1866.6766.670.060.06
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.170.1739.2939.29-0.04-0.04
Seton HallBE0.170.1751.6151.610.010.01
Saint LouisA100.170.1732.2632.26-0.06-0.06
Oklahoma St.B120.170.1756.6756.670.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.170.1767.7467.740.060.06
West VirginiaB120.170.1771.8871.880.070.07
Texas TechB120.170.1740.6240.62-0.03-0.03
DaytonA100.160.1675.7675.760.080.08
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.160.1660.7160.710.030.03
BelmontOVC0.160.1667.7467.740.060.06
LipscombASun0.160.1639.2939.29-0.03-0.03
PurdueB100.150.1563.6463.640.040.04
Georgia TechACC0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
OklahomaB120.140.1468.7568.750.050.05
VillanovaBE0.140.1494.1294.120.130.13
Wake ForestACC0.140.1440.6240.62-0.03-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.140.1446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.130.1329.0329.03-0.06-0.06
VMISC0.130.1332.1432.14-0.05-0.05
WoffordSC0.130.1381.2581.250.080.08
North FloridaASun0.130.1364.5264.520.040.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
CreightonBE0.120.1242.4242.42-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
North CarolinaACC0.120.1268.5768.570.040.04
TexasB120.120.1260.6160.610.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.110.1162.9662.960.030.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.110.1134.4834.48-0.03-0.03
SamfordSC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.110.1129.6329.63-0.04-0.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.1057.1457.140.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.100.1093.9493.940.090.09
YaleIvy0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.100.1040.7440.74-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
DePaulBE0.100.1037.5037.50-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
VirginiaACC0.100.1090.6290.620.080.08
Michigan St.B100.100.1067.6567.650.030.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.100.1018.7518.75-0.06-0.06
Northwestern St.Slnd0.090.0955.5655.560.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.090.0981.2581.250.060.06
RichmondA100.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0821.4321.43-0.05-0.05
TulaneAmer0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
UMKCWAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
PacificWCC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Utah St.MWC0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
PennIvy0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
RutgersB100.080.0831.2531.25-0.03-0.03
Arizona St.P120.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0727.2727.27-0.03-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0772.4172.410.030.03
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0725.9325.93-0.04-0.04
Oregon St.P120.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
UABCUSA0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
PittsburghACC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.070.0770.0070.000.030.03
MassachusettsA100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0777.4277.420.040.04
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0716.6716.67-0.05-0.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
North TexasCUSA0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.070.0732.1432.14-0.02-0.02
DavidsonA100.070.0776.6776.670.040.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.050.0583.3383.330.040.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0583.3383.330.040.04
PepperdineWCC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
PortlandWCC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
ArizonaP120.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
RiderMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
TroySB0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
UCLAP120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0559.2659.260.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
ColoradoP120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
DukeACC0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
Miami FLACC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
OregonP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
LouisvilleACC0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.050.000.00-0.05-0.05
FordhamA100.040.0430.0030.00-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.040.0426.6726.67-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.040.0463.6463.640.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0375.8675.860.010.01
USCP120.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0347.0647.06-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.030.030.000.00-0.03-0.03
Washington St.P120.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
DartmouthIvy0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
ElonCAA0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.020.0210.0010.00-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
NJITind0.020.0256.0056.000.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
NorthwesternB100.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
WisconsinB100.020.0291.1891.180.020.02
Boise St.MWC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.020.0258.8258.820.000.00
HofstraCAA0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Notre DameACC0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
SyracuseACC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0244.4444.44-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
LafayettePat0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
LamarSlnd0.020.0242.3142.31-0.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
TempleAmer0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
TulsaAmer0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
UNLVMWC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
UtahP120.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
DuquesneA100.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0290.9190.910.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
ToledoMAC0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00