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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Tennessee

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:42.0
Current RPI:42
Expected SOS:23
Current SOS:23
Current Record:20-12
Expected Record:20-12
Current Conf Record:12-8
Expected Conf Record:12-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:60
Expected OOC SOS:42



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-1242.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tennessee.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Xavier (47.0)BEA67-63L0%0.0
11-16USC Upstate (163.0)ASunH74-65W100%0.0
11-18The Citadel (345.0)SCH86-60W100%0.0
11-22Tennessee St. (300.0)OVCH88-67W100%0.0
11-28UTEP (103.0)CUSAN78-70L0%0.0
11-29Xavier (47.0)BEN49-64W100%0.0
11-30Wake Forest (113.0)ACCN63-82W100%0.0
12-7Tennessee Tech (215.0)OVCH84-63W100%0.0
12-14Wichita St. (4.0)MVCA70-61L0%0.0
12-18North Carolina St. (55.0)ACCH58-65L0%0.0
12-23Morehead St. (141.0)OVCH82-67W100%0.0
12-30Virginia (8.0)ACCH87-52W100%0.0
1-7LSU (83.0)SECA50-68W100%0.0
1-11Texas A&M (148.0)SECH56-57L0%0.0
1-15Auburn (169.0)SECH78-67W100%0.0
1-18Kentucky (17.0)SECA74-66L0%0.0
1-22Arkansas (77.0)SECH81-74W100%0.0
1-25Florida (1.0)SECA67-41L0%0.0
1-29Mississippi (94.0)SECH86-70W100%0.0
2-1Alabama (124.0)SECA59-76W100%0.0
2-5Vanderbilt (120.0)SECA64-60L0%0.0
2-8South Carolina (140.0)SECH72-53W100%0.0
2-11Florida (1.0)SECH58-67L0%0.0
2-15Missouri (49.0)SECA75-70L0%0.0
2-18Georgia (74.0)SECH67-48W100%0.0
2-22Texas A&M (148.0)SECA68-65L0%0.0
2-26Mississippi St. (245.0)SECA68-75W100%0.0
3-1Vanderbilt (120.0)SECH76-38W100%0.0
3-5Auburn (169.0)SECA54-82W100%0.0
3-8Missouri (49.0)SECH72-45W100%0.0
3-14South Carolina (140.0)SECN59-44W100%0.0
3-15Florida (1.0)SECN56-49L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tennessee's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Tennessee's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Tennessee.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TennesseeSEC26.2126.2161.1961.195.875.87
FloridaSEC5.325.3293.5593.554.634.63
South CarolinaSEC3.883.8843.7543.75-0.49-0.49
MissouriSEC3.833.8367.7467.741.361.36
AuburnSEC3.793.7950.0050.000.000.00
Texas A&MSEC3.753.7550.0050.000.000.00
VanderbiltSEC3.723.7248.2848.28-0.13-0.13
XavierBE3.203.2063.3363.330.850.85
AlabamaSEC2.332.3340.0040.00-0.47-0.47
KentuckySEC2.302.3069.7069.700.910.91
Mississippi St.SEC2.272.2743.7543.75-0.28-0.28
LSUSEC2.242.2461.2961.290.510.51
MississippiSEC2.242.2459.3859.380.420.42
GeorgiaSEC2.232.2361.2961.290.500.50
ArkansasSEC2.212.2167.7467.740.780.78
Tennessee St.OVC1.761.7614.2914.29-1.26-1.26
Morehead St.OVC1.741.7460.0060.000.350.35
Wake ForestACC1.711.7153.1253.120.110.11
Tennessee TechOVC1.691.6950.0050.000.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC1.681.6860.6160.610.360.36
USC UpstateASun1.641.6456.6756.670.220.22
Wichita St.MVC1.611.61100.00100.001.611.61
VirginiaACC1.611.6184.8584.851.121.12
The CitadelSC1.591.5914.2914.29-1.13-1.13
UTEPCUSA1.561.5666.6766.670.520.52
ClemsonACC0.220.2262.5062.500.050.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.210.2127.5927.59-0.09-0.09
BelmontOVC0.200.2071.8871.880.090.09
Florida St.ACC0.180.1859.3859.380.030.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.180.1870.9770.970.070.07
LipscombASun0.180.1848.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
ButlerBE0.170.1743.3343.33-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.170.1767.6567.650.060.06
North FloridaASun0.170.1746.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.170.1748.4848.48-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.160.1676.4776.470.090.09
MarshallCUSA0.150.1529.0329.03-0.06-0.06
CreightonBE0.150.1578.7978.790.080.08
MarquetteBE0.150.1553.1253.120.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.140.1470.9770.970.060.06
JacksonvilleASun0.140.1435.7135.71-0.04-0.04
Missouri St.MVC0.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
North CarolinaACC0.140.1471.8871.880.060.06
PittsburghACC0.140.1473.5373.530.070.07
Murray St.OVC0.130.1359.2659.260.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.130.1335.7135.71-0.04-0.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.130.1331.0331.03-0.05-0.05
DavidsonSC0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
Boston CollegeACC0.120.1222.5822.58-0.07-0.07
DePaulBE0.120.1236.3636.36-0.03-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.120.1230.7730.77-0.05-0.05
KansasB120.120.1272.7372.730.050.05
Virginia TechACC0.120.1229.0329.03-0.05-0.05
Notre DameACC0.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.120.1251.5251.520.000.00
WoffordSC0.110.1158.6258.620.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.1020.6920.69-0.06-0.06
Northwestern St.Slnd0.100.1048.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SC0.100.1019.2319.23-0.06-0.06
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.ASun0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
MercerASun0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
Northern KentuckyASun0.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
UCLAP120.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
GeorgetownBE0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
Seton HallBE0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
St. John'sBE0.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
VillanovaBE0.100.1087.5087.500.070.07
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.100.1081.8281.820.060.06
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
SMUAmer0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.100.1020.6920.69-0.06-0.06
Southern IllinoisMVC0.090.0940.6240.62-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
MarylandACC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
RichmondA100.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
SyracuseACC0.090.0984.3884.380.060.06
AkronMAC0.090.0963.6463.640.030.03
WisconsinB100.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Southern MissCUSA0.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
UTSACUSA0.070.0722.2222.22-0.04-0.04
HawaiiBW0.070.0762.0762.070.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0713.7913.79-0.05-0.05
Saint LouisA100.070.0780.6580.650.050.05
South FloridaAmer0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
RiceCUSA0.070.0717.8617.86-0.05-0.05
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.070.0725.8125.81-0.04-0.04
East CarolinaCUSA0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0725.9325.93-0.04-0.04
NevadaMWC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0730.3030.30-0.03-0.03
USCP120.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
FIUCUSA0.070.0746.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
NorthwesternB100.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Boise St.MWC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
FurmanSC0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Georgia SouthernSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Iowa St.B120.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0546.1546.15-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
VMIBSth0.050.0555.5655.560.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
TexasB120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
NavyPat0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
TulaneCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
TulsaCUSA0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0564.2964.290.010.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Green BayHorz0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0534.6234.62-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
West VirginiaB120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Western KentuckySB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0583.8783.870.030.03
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
ElonSC0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
RadfordBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
SamfordSC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0321.2121.21-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Washington St.P120.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
CaliforniaP120.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
ColoradoP120.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
George WashingtonA100.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
High PointBSth0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
MassachusettsA100.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
MinnesotaB100.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
ColgatePat0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSlnd0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Penn St.B100.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
TCUB120.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
CampbellBSth0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
DetroitHorz0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleAmer0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
Michigan St.B100.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.020.0276.4776.470.010.01