live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Feb 9, 2016.


Tennessee

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:111.3
Current RPI:103
Expected SOS:45
Current SOS:44
Current Record:12-12
Expected Record:15-16
Current Conf Record:5-6
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-0
Current OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:115
Expected OOC SOS:54



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1254.60.05%
18-1363.91.07%
17-1476.67.06%
16-1591.922.68%
15-16109.133.21%
14-17127.824.91%
13-18145.99.56%
12-19162.71.45%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tennessee.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13UNC Asheville (133.5)BSthH82-78W100%0.0
11-16Georgia Tech (89.9)ACCA69-67L0%0.0
11-19Marshall (126.2)CUSAH84-74W100%0.0
11-22Gardner Webb (209.9)BSthH89-64W100%0.0
11-24Army (214.8)PatH95-80W100%0.0
11-27George Washington (45.1)A10N73-70L0%0.0
11-28Nebraska (143.9)B10N71-82L0%0.0
12-12Butler (53.9)BEA94-86L0%0.0
12-16Florida Atlantic (279.8)CUSAH81-62W100%0.0
12-19Gonzaga (49.0)WCCA86-79L0%0.0
12-22East Tennessee St. (123.1)SCH76-67W100%0.0
12-29Tennessee St. (162.7)OVCH74-69W100%0.0
1-2Auburn (167.7)SECA83-77L0%0.0
1-6Florida (24.3)SECH83-69W100%0.0
1-9Texas A&M (22.8)SECH88-92L0%0.0
1-13Georgia (84.8)SECA81-72L0%0.0
1-16Mississippi St. (162.8)SECA75-80W100%0.0
1-20Vanderbilt (54.2)SECH74-88L0%0.0
1-23South Carolina (47.2)SECH78-69W100%0.0
1-26Alabama (80.8)SECA63-57L0%0.0
1-30TCU (165.7)B12A75-63L0%0.0
2-2Kentucky (17.5)SECH84-77W100%0.0
2-6Arkansas (101.6)SECA85-67L0%0.0
2-9Auburn (167.7)SECH71-45W100%0.0
2-13Missouri (221.1)SECA0-063%3.7
2-18Kentucky (17.5)SECA0-012%-12.7
2-20LSU (82.1)SECH0-056%1.5
2-24South Carolina (47.2)SECA0-027%-6.8
2-27Arkansas (101.6)SECH0-054%1.0
3-1Vanderbilt (54.2)SECA0-015%-11.4
3-5Mississippi (111.4)SECH0-066%4.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tennessee's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Tennessee's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Tennessee.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TennesseeSEC26.1826.1045.4545.03-2.38-2.59
VanderbiltSEC2.493.8454.5557.600.230.58
AuburnSEC4.443.7838.1034.38-1.06-1.18
ArkansasSEC2.493.7847.8351.71-0.110.13
KentuckySEC2.453.7878.2674.591.381.86
South CarolinaSEC2.453.7590.4882.141.982.41
Texas A&MSEC2.492.3077.2777.121.361.25
LSUSEC0.502.2765.2260.780.150.49
AlabamaSEC2.402.2757.1451.640.340.07
GeorgiaSEC2.442.2757.1453.710.350.17
MissouriSEC0.462.2534.7830.12-0.14-0.89
FloridaSEC2.442.2569.5768.530.960.83
Mississippi St.SEC2.402.2545.4545.29-0.22-0.21
MississippiSEC0.452.2262.5059.760.110.43
Gardner WebbBSth2.261.7747.6249.40-0.11-0.02
Georgia TechACC2.221.7250.0049.890.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth2.221.7068.1868.650.810.63
George WashingtonA102.171.6777.2773.551.190.79
ArmyPat2.181.6756.5256.530.280.22
East Tennessee St.SC2.171.6761.9061.540.520.38
MarshallCUSA2.131.6452.1752.920.090.10
Florida AtlanticCUSA2.131.6423.8128.19-1.11-0.71
GonzagaWCC2.131.6477.2775.981.160.85
ButlerBE2.081.6168.1866.020.760.52
NebraskaB102.081.6152.1750.270.090.01
TCUB122.081.6143.4837.32-0.27-0.41
Tennessee St.OVC2.081.6170.0065.060.830.49
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.280.2271.4369.410.120.09
Charleston SouthernBSth0.230.2023.8126.56-0.12-0.09
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.230.1952.0050.250.010.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.180.1760.0060.080.040.03
MercerSC0.180.1669.5769.020.070.06
UABCUSA0.180.1682.6179.370.120.09
ClemsonACC0.140.1658.3358.310.020.03
XavierBE0.180.1687.5081.810.140.10
WoffordSC0.140.1643.4846.22-0.02-0.01
St. John'sBE0.180.1625.0023.40-0.09-0.08
BaylorB120.180.1672.7366.400.080.05
Kansas St.B120.090.1660.8758.300.020.03
DaytonA100.180.1686.9682.300.130.10
PurdueB100.180.1680.0077.930.110.09
KansasB120.180.1682.6179.190.110.09
Wake ForestACC0.090.1643.4840.46-0.01-0.03
WinthropBSth0.190.1465.0063.410.060.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.140.1468.1866.650.050.05
Western CarolinaSC0.140.1428.5731.30-0.06-0.05
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.220.1314.2924.89-0.16-0.07
Seton HallBE0.090.1373.9169.970.040.05
VillanovaBE0.180.1387.5086.910.140.10
DePaulBE0.180.1333.3334.01-0.06-0.04
Miami FLACC0.220.1382.6177.520.150.07
Northwestern St.Slnd0.130.1317.6526.57-0.09-0.06
Oklahoma St.B120.220.1345.8342.26-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.140.1320.0019.68-0.08-0.08
Texas TechB120.130.1359.0953.180.020.01
TexasB120.180.1366.6762.200.060.03
CampbellBSth0.140.1228.5729.65-0.06-0.05
LibertyBSth0.090.1234.7836.50-0.03-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.140.1222.7324.97-0.08-0.06
PresbyterianBSth0.140.1225.0026.86-0.07-0.05
RadfordBSth0.140.1250.0051.300.000.00
High PointBSth0.190.1255.0057.460.020.02
FurmanSC0.140.1154.1754.060.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.140.1150.0052.370.000.01
VMISC0.190.1115.0016.72-0.13-0.07
LipscombASun0.140.1125.0029.30-0.07-0.05
Illinois St.MVC0.140.1154.1750.940.010.00
Boston UniversityPat0.090.1154.1755.600.010.01
ColgatePat0.180.1143.4844.80-0.02-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.140.1169.5764.890.050.03
LouisvilleACC0.090.1079.1776.070.050.05
West VirginiaB120.130.1079.1778.090.080.06
Jacksonville St.OVC0.100.0925.0024.33-0.05-0.04
Loyola MDPat0.140.0934.7837.17-0.04-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.0847.8350.19-0.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.090.0886.9686.660.070.06
Kennesaw St.ASun0.100.0821.7423.40-0.05-0.04
DrexelCAA0.090.0813.6418.15-0.07-0.05
GeorgetownBE0.090.0856.0052.830.010.00
The CitadelSC0.090.0831.8230.06-0.03-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.090.0837.5040.54-0.02-0.02
AmericanPat0.040.0830.4331.91-0.02-0.03
FIUCUSA0.090.0840.9145.30-0.02-0.01
LafayettePat0.130.0821.7423.00-0.07-0.04
NavyPat0.090.0862.5062.370.020.02
SamfordSC0.090.0841.6742.60-0.02-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.090.0852.1751.920.000.00
UTSACUSA0.090.0813.6413.63-0.07-0.06
HofstraCAA0.090.0865.2264.220.030.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.140.0825.0033.22-0.07-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.090.0831.5832.01-0.03-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.0843.4850.65-0.010.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0824.0025.67-0.05-0.04
CharlotteCUSA0.090.0834.7840.91-0.03-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0871.4368.760.020.03
Michigan St.B100.130.0880.0081.600.080.05
Old DominionCUSA0.090.0856.5262.790.010.02
UCLAP120.090.0856.5253.270.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.090.0845.4546.24-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.090.0864.0062.090.020.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.090.0840.0038.98-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0862.5056.050.010.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0860.8760.820.010.02
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0839.1341.10-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.130.0872.0071.540.060.03
Notre DameACC0.090.0870.8367.790.040.03
SouthernSWAC0.090.0861.9065.300.020.02
AkronMAC0.090.0882.6181.140.060.05
Arizona St.P120.090.0854.1751.690.010.00
DukeACC0.090.0875.0071.800.040.03
DuquesneA100.090.0860.8756.430.020.01
George MasonA100.050.0833.3333.68-0.02-0.03
Iowa St.B120.090.0873.9170.050.040.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0850.0049.090.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.040.0865.2267.130.010.03
NorthwesternB100.040.0864.0062.060.010.02
Ohio St.B100.040.0860.0055.500.010.01
OklahomaB120.040.0886.9682.650.030.05
Penn St.B100.050.0850.0046.740.00-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.130.0858.3357.170.020.01
RichmondA100.090.0854.5554.470.010.01
RutgersB100.130.0821.7420.37-0.07-0.05
VCUA100.090.0873.9173.970.040.04
BelmontOVC0.050.0666.6766.540.020.02
StetsonASun0.100.0623.8127.67-0.05-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.100.0645.4549.67-0.01-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0617.3920.65-0.06-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.090.0640.9143.54-0.02-0.01
IowaB100.090.0682.6180.550.060.03
OhioMAC0.090.0663.6461.420.030.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0613.6415.77-0.04-0.04
BucknellPat0.090.0654.5558.160.010.01
BYUWCC0.050.0666.6769.490.020.02
Holy CrossPat0.040.0639.1338.31-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.040.0636.3639.78-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.090.0639.1338.57-0.02-0.01
PacificWCC0.050.0625.0028.89-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.090.0656.5257.280.010.01
PortlandWCC0.050.0640.0038.51-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0685.7185.380.030.04
San DiegoWCC0.050.0631.8229.12-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.090.0654.5550.110.010.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.090.0630.4331.20-0.04-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.090.0627.2731.05-0.04-0.02
ArizonaP120.050.0579.1778.350.030.03
Green BayHorz0.090.0554.5556.020.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.040.0533.3333.04-0.01-0.02
RiceCUSA0.040.0528.5729.66-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.040.0590.9186.110.040.04
UCFAmer0.090.0550.0044.860.00-0.01
WashingtonP120.090.0565.2261.100.030.01
ColoradoP120.090.0569.5765.330.040.02
HarvardIvy0.090.0535.0038.50-0.03-0.01
HawaiiBW0.090.0584.2181.660.060.03
Missouri St.MVC0.090.0539.1337.81-0.02-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.090.0558.3360.730.020.01
ProvidenceBE0.090.0575.0070.990.050.02
TulsaAmer0.050.0565.2261.470.010.01
TulaneAmer0.090.0533.3332.36-0.03-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.090.0535.0034.80-0.03-0.02
AlbanyAE0.040.0576.0076.310.020.03
BradleyMVC0.040.0512.5012.90-0.03-0.04
DavidsonA100.050.0560.0057.940.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.059.0912.24-0.07-0.04
DetroitHorz0.050.0547.6245.85-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.040.0575.0076.250.020.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.090.0547.6252.05-0.000.00
IllinoisB100.040.0545.8344.13-0.00-0.01
IndianaB100.040.0579.1774.040.030.03
James MadisonCAA0.090.0570.8369.490.040.02
MarylandB100.090.0587.5083.700.070.04
MassachusettsA100.050.0540.9139.33-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.040.0554.1755.280.000.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0572.7367.630.020.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.090.059.0917.13-0.07-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.040.0582.6178.910.030.03
StanfordP120.040.0550.0046.540.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.050.0581.8282.630.030.03
SyracuseACC0.090.0566.6762.530.030.01
VirginiaACC0.090.0583.3378.470.060.03
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0531.8232.69-0.02-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.040.0556.5257.010.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0340.0040.31-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0315.0018.09-0.03-0.02
ElonCAA0.050.0352.1750.420.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0343.4842.66-0.01-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.040.0345.4538.44-0.00-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.040.0320.8324.09-0.03-0.01
BryantNEC0.040.0325.0026.39-0.02-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0373.9172.480.020.01
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0343.4841.96-0.01-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.040.0350.0051.920.000.00
MaineAE0.040.0333.3333.13-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.040.0321.7424.19-0.02-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0334.7833.09-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.040.0380.0081.160.030.02
MontanaBSky0.050.0357.8962.320.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0340.0045.50-0.01-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.050.0345.8346.64-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0310.0013.14-0.04-0.02
OaklandHorz0.050.0368.0067.980.020.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0328.0030.73-0.02-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0376.1973.420.020.01
Washington St.P120.050.0336.3631.98-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0352.3854.080.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0352.1751.910.000.00
IUPUISum0.050.0340.0039.81-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0357.8961.740.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0328.5726.98-0.02-0.01
OregonP120.050.0382.6179.220.030.02
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0315.0015.34-0.03-0.02
TempleAmer0.050.0363.6459.810.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0345.4554.14-0.000.00
UMKCWAC0.050.0328.5732.73-0.02-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0373.9176.720.020.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0342.8639.22-0.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0329.1726.74-0.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.050.0330.0034.55-0.02-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0363.6460.920.000.01
CornellIvy0.050.0342.1140.21-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.050.0355.0052.190.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0357.8956.090.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.040.0382.6181.120.030.02
HoustonAmer0.000.0369.5766.580.000.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.040.0350.0049.790.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.040.0350.0049.830.00-0.00
La SalleA100.000.0320.0020.46-0.00-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0329.1733.74-0.00-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0317.6529.05-0.00-0.01
MichiganB100.040.0369.5766.220.020.01
MinnesotaB100.040.0326.0927.79-0.02-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.040.0320.0022.32-0.03-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0356.5256.320.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.050.0383.3378.390.030.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.040.0329.1733.12-0.02-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0360.0057.610.000.00
Saint LouisA100.050.0336.3633.54-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0340.9143.29-0.01-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0338.1037.68-0.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.0333.3334.22-0.00-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.040.0377.2776.870.020.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0371.4368.940.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0376.1972.280.020.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0365.2259.770.000.01
TroySB0.000.0323.8126.71-0.00-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.050.0322.7323.24-0.02-0.01
VermontAE0.040.0352.0054.860.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.050.0352.0048.860.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.000.0360.8755.830.000.00
WyomingMWC0.040.0343.4842.49-0.01-0.00