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Through games of Nov 25, 2014.


Tennessee

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:155.6
Current RPI:266
Expected SOS:62
Current SOS:256
Current Record:1-1
Expected Record:12-16
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-1
Current OOC Record:1-1
Expected OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC RPI:168
Expected OOC SOS:129



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-720.50.02%
20-837.40.05%
19-943.60.15%
18-1056.20.44%
17-1171.41.47%
16-1286.63.57%
15-13103.27.56%
14-14120.412.21%
13-15137.716.68%
12-16155.818.09%
11-17174.515.90%
10-18193.611.59%
9-19211.97.19%
8-20230.03.33%
7-21247.01.29%
6-22263.30.37%
5-23282.00.05%
4-24279.00.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tennessee.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14VCU (23.7)A10N85-69L0%0.0
11-20Texas Southern (250.3)SWACH70-58W100%0.0
11-27Santa Clara (187.4)WCCN0-057%2.1
12-6Kansas St. (68.1)B12H0-038%-3.6
12-14Butler (85.5)BEH0-045%-1.5
12-17North Carolina St. (45.5)ACCA0-017%-11.7
12-19Tennessee Tech (248.9)OVCH0-083%11.3
12-22Mercer (205.8)SCH0-077%9.0
12-27Tennessee St. (309.6)OVCH0-091%16.4
12-31East Tennessee St. (157.2)SCH0-074%7.7
1-7Mississippi St. (179.4)SECA0-044%-1.9
1-10Alabama (63.9)SECH0-043%-2.2
1-13Arkansas (18.7)SECH0-022%-9.2
1-17Missouri (158.8)SECA0-040%-3.0
1-20South Carolina (96.8)SECA0-023%-8.7
1-24Texas A&M (49.2)SECH0-034%-4.8
1-27Arkansas (18.7)SECA0-09%-16.4
1-31Auburn (185.4)SECH0-070%6.4
2-3Mississippi St. (179.4)SECH0-067%5.3
2-7Georgia (78.8)SECA0-023%-8.7
2-11Vanderbilt (126.3)SECA0-032%-5.7
2-14LSU (88.5)SECH0-048%-0.8
2-17Kentucky (2.7)SECH0-08%-17.0
2-21Mississippi (99.5)SECA0-028%-7.0
2-26Vanderbilt (126.3)SECH0-055%1.5
2-28Florida (23.1)SECA0-09%-16.1
3-4LSU (88.5)SECA0-025%-7.9
3-7South Carolina (96.8)SECH0-045%-1.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tennessee's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Tennessee's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Tennessee.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TennesseeSEC30.6326.1537.5037.57-7.66-6.50
ArkansasSEC0.004.24100.0080.770.002.61
VanderbiltSEC0.004.23100.0052.560.000.22
Mississippi St.SEC0.004.23100.0047.550.00-0.21
South CarolinaSEC0.004.2040.0049.17-0.00-0.07
LSUSEC0.004.1860.0055.690.000.47
GeorgiaSEC0.002.5775.0055.080.000.26
AlabamaSEC0.002.5480.0059.050.000.46
Texas A&MSEC0.002.5475.0067.120.000.87
MississippiSEC0.002.5375.0052.070.000.10
FloridaSEC0.002.5366.6770.860.001.06
MissouriSEC0.002.5040.0035.92-0.00-0.71
AuburnSEC0.002.5050.0035.700.00-0.72
KentuckySEC0.002.48100.0089.460.001.96
East Tennessee St.SC0.001.9166.6759.210.000.35
MercerSC0.001.9133.3354.30-0.000.16
Tennessee TechOVC0.001.9166.6745.680.00-0.17
Tennessee St.OVC0.001.910.0025.75-0.00-0.93
Texas SouthernSWAC25.001.880.0040.25-25.00-0.37
Kansas St.B120.001.8860.0057.050.000.26
VCUA1025.001.8275.0072.9512.500.83
ButlerBE0.001.79100.0058.920.000.32
North Carolina St.ACC0.001.79100.0061.270.000.40
Santa ClaraWCC0.001.7933.3340.23-0.00-0.35
Western CarolinaSC0.000.2925.0050.46-0.000.00
ClemsonACC0.000.2760.0052.120.000.01
BaylorB120.000.24100.0070.500.000.10
ChattanoogaSC0.000.230.0046.09-0.00-0.02
Iowa St.B120.000.2175.0063.470.000.06
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.19100.0060.830.000.04
BelmontOVC0.000.1975.0071.930.000.08
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1825.0045.33-0.00-0.02
Saint LouisA100.000.1875.0047.410.00-0.01
WoffordSC0.000.1680.0076.700.000.09
Morehead St.OVC0.000.1620.0053.43-0.000.01
LipscombASun0.000.160.0042.35-0.00-0.02
North FloridaASun0.000.1625.0048.23-0.00-0.01
XavierBE0.000.15100.0079.400.000.09
Oklahoma St.B120.000.15100.0055.110.000.02
PurdueB100.000.1580.0067.040.000.05
Texas TechB120.000.1575.0045.460.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.1560.0047.180.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.000.15100.0070.280.000.06
DaytonA100.000.1575.0071.680.000.06
FurmanSC0.000.1333.3323.56-0.00-0.07
SamfordSC0.000.1340.0040.15-0.00-0.03
The CitadelSC0.000.130.0029.35-0.00-0.05
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.130.0028.01-0.00-0.06
VMISC0.000.1333.3338.23-0.00-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.000.13100.0085.190.000.09
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1325.0031.38-0.00-0.05
Seton HallBE0.000.13100.0065.620.000.04
TCUB120.000.12100.0057.870.000.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.1240.0039.52-0.00-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.000.12100.0049.350.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.120.0024.22-0.00-0.06
Norfolk St.MEAC3.120.1225.0047.03-1.56-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.120.0046.74-0.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.120.0017.79-0.00-0.08
KansasB120.000.1266.6760.800.000.03
VirginiaACC0.000.12100.0075.610.000.06
North CarolinaACC0.000.12100.0069.870.000.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.120.0066.91-0.000.04
Utah St.MWC0.000.1075.0061.090.000.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.1020.0026.30-0.00-0.05
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0933.3350.48-0.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0966.6741.550.00-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.090.0032.36-0.00-0.03
TulaneAmer0.000.0966.6738.430.00-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.09100.0057.240.000.01
YaleIvy0.000.0975.0065.600.000.03
UMKCWAC0.000.0925.0046.58-0.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.000.09100.0060.560.000.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.09100.0069.080.000.03
VillanovaBE2.500.09100.0078.022.500.05
OklahomaB120.000.0966.6756.850.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0925.0037.50-0.00-0.02
TexasB120.000.09100.0080.120.000.05
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0940.0052.47-0.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.090.0047.30-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0950.0065.510.000.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0940.0033.07-0.00-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.000.090.0035.37-0.00-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0966.6750.750.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0920.0043.52-0.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0980.0060.610.000.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0980.0074.570.000.04
RichmondA100.000.0966.6766.740.000.03
SMUAmer0.000.0940.0066.55-0.000.03
BYUWCC0.000.0766.6769.270.000.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0733.3326.91-0.00-0.03
PacificWCC0.000.0733.3330.38-0.00-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.000.0766.6754.750.000.01
PortlandWCC0.000.07100.0050.900.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.07100.0071.500.000.03
San DiegoWCC0.000.0775.0050.700.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0766.6763.740.000.02
WinthropBSth0.000.0633.3354.56-0.000.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.060.0034.82-0.00-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.0620.0045.09-0.00-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0633.3368.48-0.000.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.060.0032.89-0.00-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.060.0028.11-0.00-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0640.0047.10-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0675.0072.430.000.03
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0675.0055.300.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0666.6749.540.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.000.0660.0066.000.000.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.060.0034.32-0.00-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0660.0068.250.000.02
ColoradoP120.000.0675.0059.500.000.01
CornellIvy0.000.0633.3336.17-0.00-0.02
DePaulBE0.000.06100.0036.220.00-0.02
MarquetteBE0.000.0650.0037.650.00-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0666.6749.780.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0027.32-0.00-0.03
Oregon St.P120.000.0666.6744.530.00-0.01
PennIvy0.000.060.0025.91-0.00-0.03
RutgersB100.000.0650.0024.400.00-0.03
St. John'sBE0.000.06100.0052.030.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.0666.6754.040.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.060.0066.25-0.000.02
TroySB0.000.060.0042.64-0.00-0.01
IndianaB103.120.0680.0058.081.880.01
Miami FLACC0.000.06100.0081.280.000.04
ArizonaP120.000.06100.0075.900.000.03
Arizona St.P120.000.0660.0054.250.000.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0666.6754.260.000.00
OregonP122.500.0660.0063.180.500.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0675.0054.260.000.00
UCLAP120.000.06100.0065.220.000.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0032.72-0.00-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0032.98-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0616.6731.76-0.00-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.06100.0059.140.000.01
DavidsonA100.000.0650.0053.610.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0633.3346.11-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0640.0058.90-0.000.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0666.6772.650.000.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.060.0020.75-0.00-0.03
IonaMAAC0.000.0675.0073.890.000.03
LouisvilleACC0.000.06100.0079.500.000.03
North TexasCUSA0.000.0666.6739.910.00-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.060.0040.78-0.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.0633.3344.17-0.00-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0666.6750.600.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.0625.0054.27-0.000.00
George MasonA100.000.0620.0022.51-0.00-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.000.0350.0034.200.00-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0325.0033.31-0.00-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.03100.0072.230.000.02
San Jose St.MWC0.000.030.0019.30-0.00-0.02
Washington St.P120.000.0333.3329.16-0.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0320.0030.80-0.00-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.03100.0065.600.000.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0036.25-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.030.0064.97-0.000.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0333.3330.02-0.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0320.0042.26-0.00-0.00
USCP120.000.0350.0028.900.00-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0375.0070.310.000.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.030.0038.35-0.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0375.0044.920.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0325.0051.72-0.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0350.0064.410.000.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0340.0028.76-0.00-0.01
MaineAE0.000.030.0017.58-0.00-0.02
NorthwesternB100.000.03100.0043.950.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.0350.0066.080.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0375.0059.380.000.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0375.0056.430.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0350.0025.530.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0350.0030.030.00-0.01
ElonCAA0.000.0350.0043.080.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.000.0380.0051.980.000.00
IllinoisB100.000.03100.0065.710.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0325.0052.70-0.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0350.0049.860.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0360.0056.280.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.030.0036.60-0.00-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0320.0050.95-0.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0325.0036.61-0.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0020.18-0.00-0.02
TowsonCAA0.000.0380.0058.000.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0325.0040.73-0.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.03100.0083.950.000.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0340.0038.29-0.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0380.0063.110.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0340.0038.71-0.00-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0325.0055.20-0.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.0375.0064.660.000.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0333.3345.50-0.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0375.0064.500.000.01
DukeACC0.000.03100.0084.950.000.02
DuquesneA100.000.03100.0055.470.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky3.120.0375.0073.981.560.01
FordhamA100.000.030.0026.74-0.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0340.0047.31-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0360.0066.760.000.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0350.0065.470.000.01
La SalleA100.000.03100.0056.940.000.00
LamarSlnd0.000.0325.0037.60-0.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0380.0070.940.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.500.0314.2929.93-1.79-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.030.0021.79-0.00-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0340.0067.55-0.000.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.03100.0073.990.000.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0380.0071.450.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0350.0050.280.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.03100.0060.980.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0360.0037.460.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0375.0052.460.000.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0380.0067.890.000.01
ToledoMAC2.500.0340.0060.63-0.500.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0360.0051.970.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.0350.0031.510.00-0.01