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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


IUPUI

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:260.0
Current RPI:260
Expected SOS:182
Current SOS:182
Current Record:10-21
Expected Record:10-21
Current Conf Record:6-11
Expected Conf Record:6-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-6
Current OOC Record:4-10
Expected OOC Record:4-10
Expected OOC RPI:233
Expected OOC SOS:154



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-21260.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for IUPUI.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Indiana St. (190.0)MVCH66-79L0%0.0
11-16Purdue (55.0)B10A77-57L0%0.0
11-19Milwaukee (206.0)HorzA68-70W100%0.0
11-22Ball St. (284.0)MACH71-69W100%0.0
11-25Drake (269.0)MVCA73-60L0%0.0
11-29Georgia St. (53.0)SBH63-66L0%0.0
12-6Evansville (118.0)MVCA89-62L0%0.0
12-9Xavier (30.0)BEA66-43L0%0.0
12-13Eastern Kentucky (156.0)OVCH64-73L0%0.0
12-15Howard (255.0)MEACA57-47L0%0.0
12-20South Alabama (275.0)SBH71-65W100%0.0
12-23Richmond (56.0)A10A57-53L0%0.0
12-27Pepperdine (134.0)WCCA53-55W100%0.0
12-29North Carolina Central (128.0)MEACA70-49L0%0.0
1-4IPFW (215.0)SumA58-63W100%0.0
1-7Oral Roberts (163.0)SumA69-61L0%0.0
1-10Denver (232.0)SumH52-49W100%0.0
1-14South Dakota St. (90.0)SumA68-53L0%0.0
1-18Nebraska Omaha (300.0)SumA84-89W100%0.0
1-22North Dakota St. (92.0)SumH61-69L0%0.0
1-24South Dakota (213.0)SumH65-50W100%0.0
1-30Western Illinois (328.0)SumA63-59L0%0.0
2-5Oral Roberts (163.0)SumH68-78L0%0.0
2-7South Dakota St. (90.0)SumH56-63L0%0.0
2-11IPFW (215.0)SumH54-69L0%0.0
2-14Denver (232.0)SumA53-54W100%0.0
2-19North Dakota St. (92.0)SumA57-48L0%0.0
2-21South Dakota (213.0)SumA77-62L0%0.0
2-26Western Illinois (328.0)SumH71-66W100%0.0
2-28Nebraska Omaha (300.0)SumH80-87L0%0.0
3-8Oral Roberts (163.0)SumN58-56L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

IUPUI's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


IUPUI's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  IUPUI.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
IUPUISum26.4026.4034.0134.01-8.44-8.44
Oral RobertsSum5.705.7048.1548.15-0.21-0.21
North Dakota St.Sum4.254.2567.8667.861.521.52
South Dakota St.Sum4.234.2365.5265.521.311.31
South DakotaSum4.214.2148.2848.28-0.15-0.15
IPFWSum4.134.1348.0048.00-0.17-0.17
DenverSum4.124.1242.8642.86-0.59-0.59
Western IllinoisSum4.104.1020.8320.83-2.39-2.39
Nebraska OmahaSum4.054.0538.4638.46-0.94-0.94
Indiana St.MVC1.751.7544.8344.83-0.18-0.18
MilwaukeeHorz1.751.7544.4444.44-0.19-0.19
South AlabamaSB1.741.7433.3333.33-0.58-0.58
DrakeMVC1.721.7224.1424.14-0.89-0.89
EvansvilleMVC1.721.7258.6258.620.300.30
HowardMEAC1.721.7242.8642.86-0.25-0.25
RichmondA101.691.6958.0658.060.270.27
PepperdineWCC1.691.6958.6258.620.290.29
PurdueB101.671.6762.5062.500.420.42
Georgia St.SB1.661.6670.9770.970.700.70
North Carolina CentralMEAC1.641.6475.0075.000.820.82
Ball St.MAC1.641.6421.4321.43-0.94-0.94
Eastern KentuckyOVC1.611.6159.2659.260.300.30
XavierBE1.611.6160.6160.610.340.34
Missouri St.MVC0.320.3231.0331.03-0.12-0.12
Northern IowaMVC0.290.2990.9190.910.240.24
Illinois St.MVC0.250.2562.5062.500.060.06
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.240.2456.6756.670.030.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.220.2223.3323.33-0.12-0.12
ValparaisoHorz0.200.2083.3383.330.130.13
MemphisAmer0.200.2056.2556.250.020.02
North DakotaBSky0.190.1921.4321.43-0.11-0.11
BradleyMVC0.190.1925.0025.00-0.09-0.09
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.190.1956.6756.670.030.03
BelmontOVC0.170.1767.7467.740.060.06
IdahoBSky0.170.1739.2939.29-0.04-0.04
UMKCWAC0.170.1738.7138.71-0.04-0.04
DetroitHorz0.160.1641.9441.94-0.03-0.03
Green BayHorz0.160.1673.3373.330.080.08
Southern IllinoisMVC0.160.1634.3834.38-0.05-0.05
Wichita St.MVC0.160.1687.1087.100.120.12
AkronMAC0.140.1458.8258.820.030.03
HamptonMEAC0.140.1448.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.130.1360.0060.000.030.03
MissouriSEC0.130.1325.8125.81-0.06-0.06
Arkansas Little RockSB0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.130.1358.6258.620.020.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.130.1367.8667.860.050.05
CreightonBE0.130.1342.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.130.1335.7135.71-0.04-0.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.120.1238.4638.46-0.03-0.03
PacificWCC0.120.1232.1432.14-0.04-0.04
William & MaryCAA0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
Miami OHMAC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.110.1124.1424.14-0.06-0.06
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.110.1130.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.110.1127.5927.59-0.05-0.05
Kent St.MAC0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.110.1168.9768.970.040.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
BYUWCC0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
Murray St.OVC0.110.1183.3383.330.070.07
Idaho St.BSky0.110.1117.8617.86-0.07-0.07
Montana St.BSky0.110.1120.6920.69-0.06-0.06
StanfordP120.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
IowaB100.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
MarquetteBE0.110.1140.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.100.1025.9325.93-0.05-0.05
San DiegoWCC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
DePaulBE0.100.1037.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.100.1029.6329.63-0.04-0.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
ButlerBE0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.090.0962.9662.960.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.086.906.90-0.07-0.07
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Chicago St.WAC0.080.0817.2417.24-0.05-0.05
OaklandHorz0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Kansas St.B120.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.080.0893.9493.940.070.07
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
OklahomaB120.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
Oregon St.P120.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
PortlandWCC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
Weber St.BSky0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
UtahP120.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
WisconsinB100.080.0891.1891.180.060.06
IllinoisB100.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0865.5265.520.020.02
VCUA100.080.0874.2974.290.040.04
GeorgetownBE0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
VillanovaBE0.070.0794.1294.120.060.06
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.060.0640.7440.74-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
StetsonASun0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.066.906.90-0.05-0.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0610.3410.34-0.05-0.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0671.4371.430.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
NJITind0.050.0556.0056.000.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.04-0.04
BryantNEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0530.7730.77-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
DuquesneA100.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
RadfordBSth0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0541.1841.18-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.050.000.00-0.05-0.05
MarylandB100.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Iowa St.B120.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0572.4172.410.020.02
UNLVMWC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
DavidsonA100.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
George MasonA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
St. BonaventureA100.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
IndianaB100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Ohio St.B100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Penn St.B100.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
RutgersB100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
CornellIvy0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0318.7518.75-0.02-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.030.0368.5768.570.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
UMBCAE0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Arizona St.P120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
BrownIvy0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.030.030.000.00-0.03-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
DaytonA100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
High PointBSth0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
La SalleA100.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
MassachusettsA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
MichiganB100.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
North FloridaASun0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
NorthwesternB100.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
SamfordSC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.020.0286.6786.670.020.02
UTEPCUSA0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01