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Through games of Jan 17, 2017.


IUPUI

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:204.6
Current RPI:213
Expected SOS:211
Current SOS:237
Current Record:6-11
Expected Record:12-16
Current Conf Record:2-3
Expected Conf Record:8-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-5
Current OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC RPI:206
Expected OOC SOS:228



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-11106.50.08%
16-12125.90.77%
15-13144.03.84%
14-14163.410.71%
13-15183.319.82%
12-16203.524.92%
11-17222.120.44%
10-18240.112.88%
9-19258.04.98%
8-20274.41.37%
7-21289.10.16%
6-22309.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for IUPUI.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Eastern Kentucky (262.1)OVCA97-87L0%0.0
11-13Michigan (69.4)B10A77-65L0%0.0
11-18Howard (324.7)MEACH77-55W100%0.0
11-19Eastern Michigan (83.9)MACH83-71W100%0.0
11-22Marquette (64.0)BEA104-79L0%0.0
11-26SIU Edwardsville (317.1)OVCA61-58L0%0.0
11-30Illinois St. (35.5)MVCA77-63L0%0.0
12-3Ball St. (199.2)MACA62-73W100%0.0
12-6Illinois (75.7)B10A85-77L0%0.0
12-10Miami OH (283.0)MACA71-68L0%0.0
12-17Southern Utah (335.3)BSkyA81-101W100%0.0
12-20Northwestern (43.3)B10A87-65L0%0.0
12-31Western Illinois (305.0)SumH89-71W100%0.0
1-5North Dakota St. (125.7)SumA93-89L0%0.0
1-7South Dakota (156.9)SumA85-74L0%0.0
1-11Nebraska Omaha (156.8)SumH71-79L0%0.0
1-14Oral Roberts (247.1)SumA85-91W100%0.0
1-18South Dakota St. (265.0)SumH0-075%7.4
1-21Denver (178.0)SumH0-060%2.8
1-25Fort Wayne (111.0)SumA0-024%-8.0
1-28Western Illinois (305.0)SumA0-064%4.0
2-1North Dakota St. (125.7)SumH0-059%2.6
2-8Nebraska Omaha (156.8)SumA0-041%-2.5
2-11Oral Roberts (247.1)SumH0-070%5.9
2-15South Dakota St. (265.0)SumA0-054%1.2
2-19Denver (178.0)SumA0-038%-3.5
2-23Fort Wayne (111.0)SumH0-044%-1.7
2-25South Dakota (156.9)SumH0-059%2.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

IUPUI's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


IUPUI's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  IUPUI.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
IUPUISum26.4826.4044.7847.81-2.77-1.16
Fort WayneSum0.524.5368.7569.540.201.77
Nebraska OmahaSum3.314.5147.0649.23-0.19-0.07
Western IllinoisSum3.204.4928.5728.40-1.37-1.94
DenverSum0.354.4861.1158.330.080.75
South DakotaSum3.114.4855.5656.080.350.55
South Dakota St.Sum0.444.4833.3333.79-0.15-1.45
Oral RobertsSum3.044.4818.7528.64-1.90-1.91
North Dakota St.Sum3.104.4760.0059.290.620.83
Miami OHMAC3.131.9933.3332.09-1.04-0.71
Ball St.MAC3.211.9468.7558.131.200.32
Eastern MichiganMAC3.021.9461.5461.120.700.43
MichiganB103.201.9361.1156.660.710.26
IllinoisB103.021.9058.8251.900.530.07
MarquetteBE3.201.8864.7160.130.940.38
NorthwesternB102.941.8777.7868.111.630.68
Illinois St.MVC2.941.8575.0076.971.471.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC3.111.8529.4130.86-1.28-0.71
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC3.101.8518.7521.54-1.94-1.05
HowardMEAC3.101.8413.3329.53-2.27-0.76
Southern UtahBSky3.031.8213.3319.68-2.22-1.10
Austin PeayOVC0.180.2623.5328.53-0.09-0.11
IndianaB100.170.2466.6763.790.060.07
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.280.2443.7548.39-0.03-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.240.2229.4138.85-0.10-0.05
Central MichiganMAC0.270.2256.2551.860.030.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.270.2235.2935.32-0.08-0.06
NebraskaB100.230.2150.0043.400.00-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.260.2027.7834.92-0.12-0.06
North DakotaBSky0.280.1946.1554.02-0.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.260.1961.1157.810.060.03
PurdueB100.180.1978.9576.880.100.10
Northern IllinoisMAC0.180.1960.0053.490.040.01
Murray St.OVC0.170.1947.0655.40-0.010.02
UMKCWAC0.160.1938.8940.00-0.04-0.04
Kent St.MAC0.160.1947.0648.25-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.080.1825.0025.30-0.04-0.09
IdahoBSky0.000.1835.7144.05-0.00-0.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.170.1821.4326.05-0.10-0.09
IowaB100.240.1857.8951.110.040.00
Michigan St.B100.160.1863.1657.650.040.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.260.1640.0040.94-0.05-0.03
AkronMAC0.090.1682.3575.750.060.08
OhioMAC0.110.1666.6767.310.040.05
ToledoMAC0.090.1652.9452.830.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.110.1631.2536.83-0.04-0.04
MontanaBSky0.160.1652.6360.470.010.03
BuffaloMAC0.190.1537.5045.11-0.05-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.080.1556.2559.190.010.03
MarylandB100.330.1588.2471.860.250.06
WisconsinB100.160.1583.3381.270.110.09
Kansas St.B120.180.1476.4759.460.100.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.100.1322.2227.20-0.05-0.06
ArkansasSEC0.090.1377.7870.240.050.05
DetroitHorz0.190.1317.6524.31-0.12-0.07
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.130.0014.41-0.09-0.09
PittsburghACC0.270.1363.1651.670.070.00
XavierBE0.090.1372.2267.530.040.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.170.1364.7161.540.050.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.1355.5655.700.010.01
TulsaAmer0.260.1356.2551.290.030.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.090.1255.5653.980.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.180.1227.7829.38-0.08-0.05
CreightonBE0.090.1294.4484.830.080.09
Northern ColoradoBSky0.090.1233.3342.17-0.03-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.1231.2537.17-0.00-0.03
UC IrvineBW0.000.1250.0058.480.000.02
Wichita St.MVC0.090.1278.9582.970.050.08
WyomingMWC0.000.1262.5055.530.000.01
Penn St.B100.150.1261.1150.520.030.00
RutgersB100.080.1255.5643.040.01-0.02
AmericanPat0.190.1023.5329.83-0.10-0.04
Chicago St.WAC0.180.1016.6718.35-0.12-0.06
Arkansas St.SB0.180.1064.7165.910.050.03
StetsonASun0.090.1025.0027.36-0.04-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0911.1123.08-0.06-0.05
Notre DameACC0.080.0988.8977.880.060.05
OaklandHorz0.180.0970.5972.950.070.04
BelmontOVC0.080.0973.3373.080.040.04
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0931.2539.90-0.03-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.170.0955.5649.850.02-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0962.5065.730.020.03
Saint LouisA100.260.0927.7824.41-0.12-0.05
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0956.2553.390.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.090.0950.0041.050.00-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.000.0953.8564.270.000.03
Indiana St.MVC0.170.0935.2937.77-0.05-0.02
BradleyMVC0.090.0938.8934.53-0.02-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.170.0912.5033.85-0.13-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.170.0952.6348.200.01-0.00
ButlerBE0.160.0984.2178.350.110.05
DePaulBE0.160.0942.1130.44-0.03-0.03
MinnesotaB100.080.0978.9570.200.040.04
Ohio St.B100.080.0961.1156.520.020.01
High PointBSth0.090.0733.3340.05-0.03-0.01
NavyPat0.090.0741.1843.66-0.02-0.01
UC DavisBW0.090.0752.9454.870.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0742.1140.69-0.00-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.090.0768.7563.220.030.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.200.0643.7550.72-0.020.00
BaylorB120.090.0694.1280.670.080.04
Iowa St.B120.080.0664.7161.950.020.02
Little RockSB0.090.0656.2551.270.010.00
MississippiSEC0.090.0661.1155.110.020.01
OklahomaB120.090.0643.7536.56-0.01-0.02
RiceCUSA0.080.0662.5066.040.020.02
RichmondA100.090.0664.7158.500.030.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.080.0614.2927.70-0.06-0.03
USCP120.080.0684.2172.830.060.03
HawaiiBW0.170.0640.0044.11-0.03-0.01
SMUAmer0.180.0678.9576.610.110.03
Air ForceMWC0.000.0643.7537.62-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0617.6524.66-0.00-0.03
CaliforniaP120.000.0672.2266.110.000.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0675.0076.830.000.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.090.0612.5019.97-0.07-0.04
GonzagaWCC0.080.06100.0096.930.080.06
HofstraCAA0.080.0644.4445.45-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.080.0672.2271.190.030.03
Idaho St.BSky0.080.066.6718.54-0.07-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0618.7535.76-0.05-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0660.0072.720.000.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.090.0617.6521.39-0.06-0.04
PortlandWCC0.080.0650.0042.260.00-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.090.0653.8554.520.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.0643.7541.38-0.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0652.9450.980.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.0615.3827.49-0.00-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0640.0044.61-0.00-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.090.0644.4443.48-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.180.0622.2225.54-0.10-0.03
MissouriSEC0.170.0631.2526.54-0.07-0.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.170.0658.8257.810.030.01
ValparaisoHorz0.180.0677.7877.180.100.03
VCUA100.170.0677.7873.850.100.03
ProvidenceBE0.000.0665.0055.340.000.01
Seton HallBE0.160.0666.6758.200.050.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0645.0038.58-0.00-0.01
VillanovaBE0.080.0694.7489.210.070.05
Houston BaptistSlnd0.160.0630.7743.73-0.06-0.01
TexasB120.150.0638.8935.71-0.03-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.110.0322.2236.04-0.06-0.01
SyracuseACC0.110.0357.8952.820.020.00
VermontAE0.110.0373.6877.320.050.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.090.0321.4327.22-0.05-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.090.0361.1163.000.020.01
Green BayHorz0.090.0356.2554.680.010.00
Texas St.SB0.090.0353.3345.900.01-0.00
AuburnSEC0.080.0364.7154.900.020.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0312.5024.41-0.00-0.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.090.0343.7543.61-0.01-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.090.0346.1546.03-0.01-0.00
DelawareCAA0.090.0329.4127.58-0.04-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0317.6529.57-0.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.090.0350.0047.550.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.080.0353.3355.950.010.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.090.0325.0029.58-0.05-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0326.6740.11-0.00-0.01
HarvardIvy0.090.0358.3361.490.020.01
LouisvilleACC0.080.0383.3377.690.050.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.090.0350.0047.940.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.080.0336.8436.59-0.02-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.080.0355.5660.000.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0337.5044.59-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.090.0357.8958.050.010.00
Old DominionCUSA0.090.0361.1162.130.020.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.090.0350.0047.560.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.090.0361.1158.720.020.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0325.0031.94-0.00-0.01
SeattleWAC0.090.0340.0037.09-0.02-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0314.2929.37-0.00-0.01
TCUB120.090.0381.2565.210.050.01
Texas TechB120.080.0376.4763.780.040.01
UCFAmer0.090.0377.7866.990.050.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0388.2484.340.060.02
UNLVMWC0.090.0347.3743.64-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0347.3745.13-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.090.0358.8254.920.020.00
AlabamaSEC0.090.0362.5057.030.020.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.090.0318.7528.13-0.05-0.01
BYUWCC0.080.0368.4268.140.030.01
Florida St.ACC0.080.0388.8978.090.060.02
Fresno St.MWC0.080.0356.2551.920.010.00
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0364.7158.480.020.01
LongwoodBSth0.090.0326.6725.66-0.04-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0368.4252.460.030.00
North FloridaASun0.090.0318.7530.24-0.05-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.080.0331.2542.02-0.03-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0344.4442.66-0.01-0.00
West VirginiaB120.080.0388.2484.620.060.02
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0318.7520.55-0.05-0.02
WinthropBSth0.080.0373.3373.820.040.01
BryantNEC0.080.0322.2235.39-0.04-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.0322.2230.92-0.04-0.01
DaytonA100.080.0375.0076.080.040.02
FurmanSC0.080.0350.0054.870.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0329.4134.19-0.03-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0336.8448.43-0.02-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.080.0346.1551.20-0.010.00
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0381.2572.840.050.01
UCLAP120.080.0394.7489.340.070.02
Virginia TechACC0.080.0376.4762.130.040.01
Wake ForestACC0.080.0358.8252.990.010.00