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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


IUPUI

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:322.0
Current RPI:322
Expected SOS:158
Current SOS:158
Current Record:3-26
Expected Record:3-26
Current Conf Record:1-14
Expected Conf Record:1-14
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:1-12
Current OOC Record:2-12
Expected OOC Record:2-12
Expected OOC RPI:302
Expected OOC SOS:152



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
3-26322.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for IUPUI.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Utah Valley (144.0)WACA74-66L0%0.0
11-12Evansville (214.0)MVCH78-84L0%0.0
11-16Southeast Missouri St. (257.0)OVCH68-76L0%0.0
11-22Northwestern (123.0)B10A63-61L0%0.0
11-25Missouri (49.0)SECA78-64L0%0.0
11-28Gardner Webb (241.0)BSthN54-61L0%0.0
11-29Chattanooga (243.0)SCN76-87L0%0.0
12-4Bradley (265.0)MVCA66-72W100%0.0
12-7North Carolina Central (99.0)MEACH71-65W100%0.0
12-14Marquette (92.0)BEA86-50L0%0.0
12-18Nicholls St. (262.0)SlndH56-62L0%0.0
12-21Indiana St. (71.0)MVCA81-61L0%0.0
12-23Southeast Missouri St. (257.0)OVCA83-79L0%0.0
12-29Drake (174.0)MVCH52-75L0%0.0
1-9South Dakota St. (138.0)SumH70-86L0%0.0
1-11North Dakota St. (35.0)SumH64-87L0%0.0
1-16South Dakota (255.0)SumA69-57L0%0.0
1-18Denver (139.0)SumA66-45L0%0.0
1-25IPFW (115.0)SumA90-75L0%0.0
1-30Western Illinois (290.0)SumH54-69L0%0.0
2-1Nebraska Omaha (219.0)SumH71-99L0%0.0
2-6North Dakota St. (35.0)SumA66-60L0%0.0
2-8South Dakota St. (138.0)SumA83-59L0%0.0
2-13Denver (139.0)SumH59-49W100%0.0
2-15South Dakota (255.0)SumH67-71L0%0.0
2-22IPFW (115.0)SumH60-84L0%0.0
2-27Nebraska Omaha (219.0)SumA88-66L0%0.0
3-1Western Illinois (290.0)SumA75-70L0%0.0
3-8IPFW (115.0)SumN85-47L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

IUPUI's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


IUPUI's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  IUPUI.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
IUPUISum26.4526.459.499.49-21.43-21.43
IPFWSum6.076.0764.2964.291.731.73
North Dakota St.Sum4.414.4176.9276.922.372.37
South Dakota St.Sum4.384.3853.8553.850.340.34
DenverSum4.374.3750.0050.000.000.00
South DakotaSum4.324.3228.0028.00-1.90-1.90
Western IllinoisSum4.294.2920.0020.00-2.58-2.58
Nebraska OmahaSum4.264.2644.0044.00-0.51-0.51
Southeast Missouri St.OVC3.453.4550.0050.000.000.00
DrakeMVC1.981.9844.8344.83-0.20-0.20
BradleyMVC1.981.9838.7138.71-0.45-0.45
EvansvilleMVC1.921.9236.6736.67-0.51-0.51
Indiana St.MVC1.891.8966.6766.670.630.63
Utah ValleyWAC1.851.8560.7160.710.400.40
MissouriSEC1.781.7865.6265.620.560.56
NorthwesternB101.781.7840.6240.62-0.33-0.33
Gardner WebbBSth1.781.7848.2848.28-0.06-0.06
ChattanoogaSC1.721.7250.0050.000.000.00
MarquetteBE1.721.7251.6151.610.060.06
Nicholls St.Slnd1.721.7244.0044.00-0.21-0.21
North Carolina CentralMEAC1.721.7286.6786.671.261.26
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.460.4632.1432.14-0.16-0.16
Wichita St.MVC0.310.31100.00100.000.310.31
Missouri St.MVC0.280.2861.2961.290.060.06
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.280.2829.0329.03-0.12-0.12
Southern IllinoisMVC0.280.2840.6240.62-0.05-0.05
UMKCWAC0.270.2734.4834.48-0.08-0.08
Illinois St.MVC0.250.2550.0050.000.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.250.2530.7730.77-0.09-0.09
BelmontOVC0.230.2371.8871.880.100.10
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.230.2370.9770.970.100.10
Northern IowaMVC0.220.2250.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.200.2048.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.200.2025.8125.81-0.10-0.10
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.200.2031.0331.03-0.08-0.08
WyomingMWC0.190.1953.3353.330.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.180.1825.0025.00-0.09-0.09
Morehead St.OVC0.180.1858.0658.060.030.03
MinnesotaB100.180.1859.3859.380.030.03
IowaB100.170.1761.2961.290.040.04
IllinoisB100.160.1657.5857.580.020.02
IdahoWAC0.150.1545.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.150.1553.5753.570.010.01
StanfordP120.150.1563.6463.640.040.04
Murray St.OVC0.140.1459.2659.260.030.03
Western MichiganMAC0.140.1470.9770.970.060.06
XavierBE0.140.1462.5062.500.030.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.130.1367.8667.860.040.04
SeattleWAC0.120.1239.2939.29-0.03-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.120.1232.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Texas St.SB0.120.1220.6920.69-0.07-0.07
UTEPCUSA0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
NevadaMWC0.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.120.1219.3519.35-0.07-0.07
NebraskaB100.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
PepperdineWCC0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.110.1135.7135.71-0.03-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.110.1120.6920.69-0.07-0.07
Ohio St.B100.110.1173.5373.530.050.05
IndianaB100.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.110.1113.7913.79-0.08-0.08
UICHorz0.110.1113.7913.79-0.08-0.08
Ball St.MAC0.110.1110.7110.71-0.09-0.09
Miami OHMAC0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.100.1024.0024.00-0.05-0.05
TroySB0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Utah St.MWC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.090.0957.1457.140.010.01
PacificWCC0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
HawaiiBW0.090.0962.0762.070.020.02
Notre DameACC0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.090.0946.1546.15-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.090.0925.9325.93-0.04-0.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.090.0973.5373.530.040.04
WoffordSC0.090.0958.6258.620.020.02
Appalachian St.SC0.090.0919.2319.23-0.05-0.05
Northern KentuckyASun0.090.0930.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.0925.8125.81-0.04-0.04
MercerASun0.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
Saint LouisA100.090.0980.6580.650.050.05
WinthropBSth0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
SouthernSWAC0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.080.0838.4638.46-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
UCLAP120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
ButlerBE0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
DePaulBE0.080.0836.3636.36-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.080.0878.7978.790.050.05
Michigan St.B100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.0714.8114.81-0.05-0.05
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0725.9325.93-0.03-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.070.0736.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.070.0748.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Green BayHorz0.060.0677.7877.780.040.04
Kansas St.B120.060.0662.5062.500.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
UNLVMWC0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
DelawareCAA0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
LehighPat0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
RiderMAAC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0680.6580.650.040.04
Texas TechB120.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Georgia SouthernSC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
AuburnSEC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
The CitadelSC0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
CaliforniaP120.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.060.0686.2186.210.040.04
LongwoodBSth0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
TulaneCUSA0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
VMIBSth0.060.0655.5655.560.010.01
CampbellBSth0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0616.6716.67-0.04-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NJITind0.060.0636.0036.00-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0514.8114.81-0.04-0.04
Arizona St.P120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
CreightonBE0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
GeorgetownBE0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
AlabamaSEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
FloridaSEC0.050.0594.1294.120.050.05
PurdueB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.03-0.03
North TexasCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSlnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0393.1093.100.030.03
UTSACUSA0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
DavidsonSC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
ElonSC0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
MaineAE0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
OregonP120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
UABCUSA0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
AlbanyAE0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
DukeACC0.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
MarylandACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
TulsaCUSA0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
New HampshireAE0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
PortlandWCC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.030.0351.8551.850.000.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
MichiganB100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0341.1841.18-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00