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Through games of Feb 11, 2016.


IUPUI

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:185.0
Current RPI:173
Expected SOS:129
Current SOS:137
Current Record:10-16
Expected Record:12-18
Current Conf Record:7-5
Expected Conf Record:9-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-4
Current OOC Record:3-11
Expected OOC Record:3-11
Expected OOC RPI:272
Expected OOC SOS:209



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-16141.81.75%
13-17160.313.57%
12-18177.734.95%
11-19194.236.80%
10-20210.012.92%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for IUPUI.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Indiana St. (159.2)MVCA70-72W100%0.0
11-16Marquette (118.1)BEA75-71L0%0.0
11-18North Carolina St. (119.1)ACCA79-56L0%0.0
11-23Kennesaw St. (283.4)ASunA71-63L0%0.0
11-24South Alabama (251.0)SBN68-78L0%0.0
11-27Georgia St. (160.1)SBA78-72L0%0.0
12-1Ball St. (168.9)MACA61-58L0%0.0
12-5Miami OH (219.2)MACH78-64W100%0.0
12-7Purdue (14.5)B10A80-53L0%0.0
12-10Missouri St. (235.3)MVCA88-74L0%0.0
12-12Creighton (78.8)BEA90-65L0%0.0
12-19Southern Utah (335.8)BSkyH82-68W100%0.0
12-22Memphis (120.6)AmerA84-48L0%0.0
12-28Butler (48.0)BEA92-54L0%0.0
1-1South Dakota (181.7)SumA66-77W100%0.0
1-3Nebraska Omaha (124.9)SumA76-71L0%0.0
1-7South Dakota St. (44.1)SumH74-67W100%0.0
1-9Western Illinois (243.2)SumA60-67W100%0.0
1-14Oral Roberts (144.4)SumH71-80L0%0.0
1-16Denver (209.2)SumH76-61W100%0.0
1-23IPFW (82.0)SumA82-84W100%0.0
1-29Western Illinois (243.2)SumH69-67W100%0.0
1-31North Dakota St. (124.2)SumH73-72W100%0.0
2-4Denver (209.2)SumA53-51L0%0.0
2-6South Dakota St. (44.1)SumA80-58L0%0.0
2-11Oral Roberts (144.4)SumA77-56L0%0.0
2-17Nebraska Omaha (124.9)SumH0-038%-3.3
2-20North Dakota St. (124.2)SumA0-019%-9.5
2-25South Dakota (181.7)SumH0-056%1.6
2-27IPFW (82.0)SumH0-042%-2.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

IUPUI's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


IUPUI's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  IUPUI.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
IUPUISum26.4226.3646.0043.09-2.11-3.64
Oral RobertsSum4.474.2336.3637.96-1.22-1.02
DenverSum4.544.2152.1749.250.20-0.06
IPFWSum2.594.2173.9171.591.241.82
Western IllinoisSum4.404.1835.2934.95-1.29-1.26
South DakotaSum2.594.1845.8345.16-0.22-0.40
Nebraska OmahaSum2.694.1756.5256.850.350.57
North Dakota St.Sum2.544.1763.6461.320.690.94
South Dakota St.Sum4.384.1776.1976.542.302.22
ButlerBE2.161.8969.5767.930.850.68
Missouri St.MVC2.161.8734.7835.18-0.66-0.55
CreightonBE2.061.8562.5060.800.520.40
South AlabamaSB2.141.8133.3334.02-0.71-0.58
Indiana St.MVC2.051.7852.1751.250.090.04
Miami OHMAC2.001.7836.3634.16-0.55-0.56
MarquetteBE1.961.7862.5056.480.490.23
Ball St.MAC2.001.7559.0955.660.360.20
Georgia St.SB2.011.7252.6351.880.110.06
North Carolina St.ACC1.971.7047.8347.25-0.09-0.09
PurdueB101.961.6979.1777.171.150.92
Southern UtahBSky1.961.6915.0015.49-1.37-1.17
Kennesaw St.ASun1.921.6721.7423.66-1.09-0.88
MemphisAmer1.921.6756.5257.950.250.27
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.320.2539.1341.05-0.07-0.05
Weber St.BSky0.290.2466.6769.750.100.09
MinnesotaB100.240.2325.0027.26-0.12-0.11
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.260.2145.8343.78-0.02-0.03
XavierBE0.200.1987.5081.850.150.12
Montana St.BSky0.130.1843.4844.83-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.180.1840.9138.82-0.03-0.04
Idaho St.BSky0.160.1847.6248.04-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.210.1854.5555.550.020.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.160.1850.0052.870.000.01
UMKCWAC0.160.1828.5732.75-0.07-0.06
Illinois St.MVC0.200.1756.0054.080.020.01
LSUSEC0.240.1762.5059.080.060.03
DePaulBE0.200.1633.3334.02-0.07-0.05
GeorgetownBE0.160.1656.0052.870.020.01
ProvidenceBE0.200.1672.0069.130.090.06
Seton HallBE0.190.1670.8368.080.080.06
St. John'sBE0.200.1625.0023.45-0.10-0.09
VillanovaBE0.160.1687.5086.850.120.12
IowaB100.220.1579.1778.880.130.09
WisconsinB100.180.1562.5057.000.040.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.160.1527.2726.45-0.07-0.07
UT ArlingtonSB0.180.1568.1871.350.070.06
Southern MissCUSA0.170.1530.0031.76-0.07-0.05
WyomingMWC0.160.1543.4842.54-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.160.1428.0030.49-0.07-0.06
StetsonASun0.120.1422.7327.39-0.06-0.07
IllinoisB100.120.1445.8344.07-0.01-0.02
TulsaAmer0.160.1466.6764.700.050.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.120.1440.0043.39-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.160.1412.0011.95-0.12-0.11
ValparaisoHorz0.160.1482.6183.030.110.09
IndianaB100.120.1480.0075.690.070.07
Western MichiganMAC0.170.1431.8232.68-0.06-0.05
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.1460.0057.650.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.180.124.357.72-0.17-0.10
MontanaBSky0.130.1260.0062.710.030.03
Appalachian St.SB0.090.1225.0028.15-0.05-0.05
Arkansas Little RockSB0.140.1286.3684.220.100.08
Georgia SouthernSB0.090.1242.8641.34-0.01-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.090.1260.0062.250.020.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.090.1245.4549.05-0.01-0.00
Texas St.SB0.140.1240.0038.88-0.03-0.03
TroySB0.090.1222.7324.38-0.05-0.06
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.180.1268.1867.730.060.04
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.120.1245.4551.69-0.010.00
JacksonvilleASun0.080.1247.8348.57-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.130.1254.1753.810.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.080.1140.0042.85-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.120.1120.8323.28-0.07-0.06
EvansvilleMVC0.160.1172.0073.080.070.05
MilwaukeeHorz0.120.1160.8762.470.030.03
Northern IowaMVC0.120.1156.0055.450.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.120.1173.0872.610.060.05
Wichita St.MVC0.080.1173.9176.700.040.06
OklahomaB120.160.1186.9682.620.120.07
OhioMAC0.080.1163.6461.470.020.03
ToledoMAC0.080.1160.8762.080.020.03
Arizona St.P120.160.1154.1751.700.010.00
North DakotaBSky0.090.0945.0048.13-0.01-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.040.0940.0045.20-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.080.0952.1755.070.000.01
UtahP120.090.0970.8368.520.040.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.120.0933.3334.95-0.04-0.03
Utah St.MWC0.080.0947.6249.28-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.080.0933.3330.28-0.03-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.120.0958.3360.710.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0929.1733.11-0.03-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.120.0986.9680.420.090.05
SouthernSWAC0.080.0961.9065.330.020.03
BelmontOVC0.120.0968.0066.640.040.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0916.6719.49-0.05-0.05
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0826.0928.41-0.04-0.04
AkronMAC0.080.0882.6181.140.050.05
Bowling GreenMAC0.130.0850.0045.770.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.080.0856.5257.060.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.040.0847.6249.39-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.080.0865.2260.600.030.02
CincinnatiAmer0.120.0872.0071.570.050.04
TempleAmer0.080.0865.2262.370.020.02
UCFAmer0.080.0850.0044.650.00-0.01
MichiganB100.080.0870.8366.750.030.03
NebraskaB100.080.0852.0050.760.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.080.0820.0019.73-0.05-0.05
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.100.079.5210.67-0.08-0.05
IdahoBSky0.090.0656.5255.340.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.069.5212.09-0.04-0.05
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0621.7422.75-0.05-0.03
ColoradoP120.040.0670.8365.580.020.02
DetroitHorz0.080.0645.4543.87-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.080.0639.1342.98-0.02-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.040.0682.6181.130.030.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.080.0650.0049.760.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.040.0670.8367.970.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.080.0672.0071.320.040.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0665.2268.600.020.02
NJITASun0.080.0656.0055.640.010.01
North FloridaASun0.080.0662.5064.120.020.02
TCUB120.080.0645.8339.36-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0650.0050.500.000.00
Texas TechB120.080.0660.8755.310.020.01
UC DavisBW0.040.0638.1035.34-0.01-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.080.0621.7422.42-0.05-0.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.040.0614.2915.44-0.03-0.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0650.0049.320.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.080.0640.0041.68-0.02-0.01
MississippiSEC0.090.0662.5058.940.020.01
Old DominionCUSA0.090.0658.3363.180.010.02
UTSACUSA0.080.0613.0412.96-0.06-0.04
Air ForceMWC0.080.0643.4837.80-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.040.0628.5734.11-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.040.0666.6767.670.010.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.040.0631.8230.08-0.01-0.02
Kansas St.B120.040.0658.3356.290.010.01
NavyPat0.040.0664.0064.460.010.02
San DiegoWCC0.080.0630.4328.20-0.03-0.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.080.0633.3332.04-0.03-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.080.0645.8341.63-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.080.0679.1775.990.050.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0613.0415.26-0.06-0.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0652.1754.130.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0550.0054.180.000.00
Miami FLACC0.080.0582.6177.580.050.03
NortheasternCAA0.080.0548.0048.60-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0570.8370.130.030.02
DukeACC0.080.0575.0071.840.040.02
East CarolinaAmer0.040.0541.6739.49-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.080.0566.6763.300.030.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.0515.0018.13-0.05-0.03
MarylandB100.040.0587.5083.660.030.04
North CarolinaACC0.040.0583.3378.380.030.03
Ohio St.B100.080.0560.0055.560.020.01
PittsburghACC0.080.0572.7367.600.040.02
RutgersB100.080.0521.7420.34-0.04-0.03
SMUAmer0.040.0586.9682.920.030.04
TulaneAmer0.040.0536.0034.84-0.01-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.040.0541.6739.90-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0333.3330.63-0.02-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.0330.0035.92-0.00-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0381.8281.780.030.02
UABCUSA0.050.0383.3379.820.030.02
AlabamaSEC0.040.0360.8755.980.010.00
ChattanoogaSC0.040.0383.3383.710.030.02
ElonCAA0.040.0350.0050.070.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.040.0325.0025.08-0.02-0.01
MercerSC0.040.0366.6767.110.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.040.0368.1865.170.010.01
West VirginiaB120.040.0379.1778.100.020.02
HofstraCAA0.040.0366.6766.770.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.040.0343.4843.77-0.01-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.040.0343.4850.64-0.010.00
Oklahoma St.B120.040.0345.8342.30-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.040.0327.2728.16-0.02-0.01
Saint LouisA100.040.0334.7832.39-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.040.0345.4546.08-0.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.040.0336.8442.88-0.01-0.00
DaytonA100.040.0386.9682.160.030.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.040.0326.0927.89-0.02-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.040.0321.7424.60-0.02-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.040.0326.3232.40-0.02-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.040.0358.3360.900.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.040.0350.0048.130.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.040.0365.2264.340.010.01
The CitadelSC0.040.0330.4329.49-0.02-0.01
VMISC0.040.0319.0519.67-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0329.1726.69-0.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.040.0352.1754.940.000.00
ClemsonACC0.000.0358.3358.400.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.040.0314.2920.64-0.03-0.02
FloridaSEC0.040.0366.6766.320.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.040.0354.1752.000.000.00
High PointBSth0.040.0357.1459.870.010.01
HoustonAmer0.040.0370.8367.980.020.01
HowardMEAC0.040.0336.3638.97-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.040.0352.9452.100.000.00
LehighPat0.040.0339.1342.83-0.01-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.040.0372.7370.520.020.01
MaineAE0.040.0332.0031.16-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.040.0345.4543.23-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.040.0343.4842.40-0.01-0.00
Michigan St.B100.040.0380.0081.560.020.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.040.0318.1821.11-0.03-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.040.0331.8232.46-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0364.0062.090.000.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0370.8367.930.000.01
Penn St.B100.040.0350.0046.770.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.040.0323.8125.49-0.02-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.040.0323.8122.86-0.02-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0368.0064.090.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.040.0345.4554.18-0.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.040.0358.3359.970.010.01
VermontAE0.040.0352.0054.860.000.00
VirginiaACC0.000.0383.3378.460.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.040.0352.0048.920.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.040.0368.1867.110.010.01
WinthropBSth0.040.0366.6763.780.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.040.0330.4332.26-0.02-0.01