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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


IUPUI

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:189.0
Current RPI:189
Expected SOS:139
Current SOS:139
Current Record:12-19
Expected Record:12-19
Current Conf Record:9-8
Expected Conf Record:9-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-3
Current OOC Record:3-11
Expected OOC Record:3-11
Expected OOC RPI:278
Expected OOC SOS:218



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-19189.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for IUPUI.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Indiana St. (172.0)MVCA70-72W100%0.0
11-16Marquette (110.0)BEA75-71L0%0.0
11-18North Carolina St. (123.0)ACCA79-56L0%0.0
11-23Kennesaw St. (263.0)ASunA71-63L0%0.0
11-24South Alabama (240.0)SBN68-78L0%0.0
11-27Georgia St. (180.0)SBA78-72L0%0.0
12-1Ball St. (179.0)MACA61-58L0%0.0
12-5Miami OH (195.0)MACH78-64W100%0.0
12-7Purdue (15.0)B10A80-53L0%0.0
12-10Missouri St. (235.0)MVCA88-74L0%0.0
12-12Creighton (100.0)BEA90-65L0%0.0
12-19Southern Utah (336.0)BSkyH82-68W100%0.0
12-22Memphis (139.0)AmerA84-48L0%0.0
12-28Butler (57.0)BEA92-54L0%0.0
1-1South Dakota (197.0)SumA66-77W100%0.0
1-3Nebraska Omaha (144.0)SumA76-71L0%0.0
1-7South Dakota St. (29.0)SumH74-67W100%0.0
1-9Western Illinois (262.0)SumA60-67W100%0.0
1-14Oral Roberts (148.0)SumH71-80L0%0.0
1-16Denver (188.0)SumH76-61W100%0.0
1-23IPFW (71.0)SumA82-84W100%0.0
1-29Western Illinois (262.0)SumH69-67W100%0.0
1-31North Dakota St. (120.0)SumH73-72W100%0.0
2-4Denver (188.0)SumA53-51L0%0.0
2-6South Dakota St. (29.0)SumA80-58L0%0.0
2-11Oral Roberts (148.0)SumA77-56L0%0.0
2-17Nebraska Omaha (144.0)SumH88-76W100%0.0
2-20North Dakota St. (120.0)SumA63-59L0%0.0
2-25South Dakota (197.0)SumH82-85L0%0.0
2-27IPFW (71.0)SumH80-77W100%0.0
3-6North Dakota St. (120.0)SumN45-60L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

IUPUI's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


IUPUI's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  IUPUI.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
IUPUISum26.3726.3742.9842.98-3.71-3.71
North Dakota St.Sum5.725.7257.1457.140.820.82
South Dakota St.Sum4.244.2479.3179.312.492.49
IPFWSum4.214.2175.8675.862.182.18
DenverSum4.194.1951.7251.720.140.14
Oral RobertsSum4.154.1537.0437.04-1.08-1.08
South DakotaSum4.104.1039.2939.29-0.88-0.88
Nebraska OmahaSum4.104.1055.5655.560.460.46
Western IllinoisSum4.054.0531.8231.82-1.47-1.47
ButlerBE1.821.8266.6766.670.610.61
Missouri St.MVC1.801.8036.6736.67-0.48-0.48
CreightonBE1.781.7854.8454.840.170.17
South AlabamaSB1.751.7536.6736.67-0.47-0.47
Miami OHMAC1.741.7438.7138.71-0.39-0.39
Indiana St.MVC1.721.7246.6746.67-0.11-0.11
MarquetteBE1.721.7259.3859.380.320.32
Ball St.MAC1.711.7156.6756.670.230.23
Georgia St.SB1.661.6648.1548.15-0.06-0.06
North Carolina St.ACC1.641.6446.8846.88-0.10-0.10
PurdueB101.641.6475.7675.760.840.84
Southern UtahBSky1.641.6414.8114.81-1.15-1.15
Kennesaw St.ASun1.611.6128.5728.57-0.69-0.69
MemphisAmer1.611.6154.5554.550.150.15
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.240.2439.2939.29-0.05-0.05
Weber St.BSky0.210.2174.1974.190.100.10
MinnesotaB100.210.2125.8125.81-0.10-0.10
XavierBE0.200.2084.3884.380.140.14
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.200.2045.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.190.1943.3343.33-0.03-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.190.1955.1755.170.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.190.1931.0331.03-0.07-0.07
Idaho St.BSky0.190.1948.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.180.1854.8454.840.020.02
IllinoisB100.180.1844.1244.12-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.180.1869.7069.700.070.07
Seton HallBE0.180.1875.7675.760.090.09
St. John'sBE0.180.1822.5822.58-0.10-0.10
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
UMKCWAC0.160.1632.1432.14-0.06-0.06
LSUSEC0.160.1657.5857.580.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.160.1625.9325.93-0.08-0.08
EvansvilleMVC0.160.1672.7372.730.070.07
TulsaAmer0.160.1664.5264.520.050.05
DePaulBE0.150.1529.0329.03-0.06-0.06
GeorgetownBE0.150.1545.4545.45-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.150.1585.2985.290.110.11
IowaB100.140.1467.7467.740.050.05
WisconsinB100.140.1462.5062.500.030.03
Texas St.SB0.140.1444.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.140.1427.5927.59-0.06-0.06
Georgia SouthernSB0.140.1441.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.140.1451.7251.720.000.00
MontanaBSky0.140.1462.0762.070.030.03
North DakotaBSky0.140.1448.2848.28-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
Eastern MichiganMAC0.130.1348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.130.1332.2632.26-0.05-0.05
StetsonASun0.130.1326.6726.67-0.06-0.06
Northern IllinoisMAC0.130.1358.6258.620.020.02
BradleyMVC0.130.1312.9012.90-0.10-0.10
DrakeMVC0.130.1320.0020.00-0.08-0.08
ValparaisoHorz0.130.1380.0080.000.080.08
Western MichiganMAC0.130.1336.6736.67-0.03-0.03
IndianaB100.130.1378.1278.120.070.07
Chicago St.WAC0.120.123.453.45-0.11-0.11
Appalachian St.SB0.110.1129.0329.03-0.05-0.05
Arkansas Little RockSB0.110.1187.1087.100.080.08
Louisiana MonroeSB0.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
TroySB0.110.1124.1424.14-0.06-0.06
Wright St.Horz0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.110.1170.9770.970.040.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
OklahomaB120.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
Austin PeayOVC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
Utah St.MWC0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
OhioMAC0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
ToledoMAC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
Arizona St.P120.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
BuffaloMAC0.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
MichiganB100.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
UtahP120.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
MissouriSEC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
SouthernSWAC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
BelmontOVC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
Iowa St.B120.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0821.4321.43-0.04-0.04
UC DavisBW0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.080.0818.5218.52-0.05-0.05
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
TempleAmer0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
DukeACC0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.070.0747.0647.06-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.070.0724.2424.24-0.04-0.04
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
TulaneAmer0.070.0735.2935.29-0.02-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0710.7110.71-0.05-0.05
IdahoBSky0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0610.7110.71-0.05-0.05
ColoradoP120.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
DetroitHorz0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.060.0636.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0679.3179.310.030.03
James MadisonCAA0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
NJITASun0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
North FloridaASun0.060.0663.3363.330.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
SamfordSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0572.4172.410.020.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
MississippiSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0562.8662.860.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Air ForceMWC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
TCUB120.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Miami FLACC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0511.1111.11-0.04-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
RutgersB100.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
PittsburghACC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Michigan St.B100.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
Ohio St.B100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
SMUAmer0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0383.8783.870.020.02
UABCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
ElonCAA0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
MercerSC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0344.1244.12-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
VMISC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
ClemsonACC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
High PointBSth0.020.0264.2964.290.010.01
MaineAE0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
VirginiaACC0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
WinthropBSth0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
FloridaSEC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
HoustonAmer0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
HowardMEAC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.020.0256.0056.000.000.00
LehighPat0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Penn St.B100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
VermontAE0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01