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Through games of Nov 27, 2014.


IUPUI

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:270.3
Current RPI:251
Expected SOS:183
Current SOS:268
Current Record:2-3
Expected Record:9-21
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:5-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-8
Current OOC Record:2-3
Expected OOC Record:4-10
Expected OOC RPI:228
Expected OOC SOS:101



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-12100.30.03%
17-13127.30.03%
16-14137.50.10%
15-15160.60.54%
14-16178.21.37%
13-17198.13.40%
12-18217.47.19%
11-19239.411.57%
10-20257.316.40%
9-21275.418.97%
8-22290.717.58%
7-23304.811.92%
6-24315.27.02%
5-25325.52.98%
4-26331.40.74%
3-27338.30.14%
2-28342.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for IUPUI.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Indiana St. (203.3)MVCH66-79L0%0.0
11-16Purdue (48.1)B10A77-57L0%0.0
11-19Milwaukee (260.8)HorzA68-70W100%0.0
11-22Ball St. (177.2)MACH71-69W100%0.0
11-25Drake (269.3)MVCA73-60L0%0.0
11-29Georgia St. (87.2)SBH0-024%-8.7
12-6Evansville (74.1)MVCA0-06%-18.5
12-9Xavier (11.5)BEA0-01%-28.1
12-13Eastern Kentucky (161.2)OVCH0-037%-3.9
12-15Howard (267.3)MEACA0-034%-5.0
12-20South Alabama (234.1)SBH0-052%0.6
12-23Richmond (63.1)A10A0-05%-20.3
12-27Pepperdine (138.2)WCCA0-09%-16.0
12-29North Carolina Central (170.9)MEACA0-014%-12.9
1-4IPFW (165.3)SumA0-014%-13.0
1-7Oral Roberts (234.1)SumA0-027%-7.5
1-10Denver (140.1)SumH0-029%-6.5
1-14South Dakota St. (154.5)SumA0-015%-12.5
1-18Nebraska Omaha (221.7)SumA0-022%-9.4
1-22North Dakota St. (204.1)SumH0-045%-1.4
1-24South Dakota (252.0)SumH0-047%-0.9
1-30Western Illinois (313.7)SumA0-042%-2.4
2-5Oral Roberts (234.1)SumH0-049%-0.3
2-7South Dakota St. (154.5)SumH0-033%-5.3
2-11IPFW (165.3)SumH0-031%-5.8
2-14Denver (140.1)SumA0-013%-13.7
2-19North Dakota St. (204.1)SumA0-024%-8.6
2-21South Dakota (252.0)SumA0-025%-8.1
2-26Western Illinois (313.7)SumH0-066%4.8
2-28Nebraska Omaha (221.7)SumH0-043%-2.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

IUPUI's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


IUPUI's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  IUPUI.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
IUPUISum30.7526.3943.4830.80-4.01-10.13
South DakotaSum0.004.220.0036.92-0.00-1.10
Oral RobertsSum1.004.2240.0036.70-0.20-1.12
IPFWSum0.004.2166.6761.230.000.95
DenverSum0.004.2050.0059.010.000.76
Nebraska OmahaSum0.004.1950.0049.410.00-0.05
South Dakota St.Sum0.004.1933.3353.22-0.000.27
North Dakota St.Sum0.004.1850.0045.910.00-0.34
Western IllinoisSum0.004.1825.0025.04-0.00-2.09
Indiana St.MVC10.001.8150.0038.210.00-0.43
South AlabamaSB0.001.810.0039.93-0.00-0.36
HowardMEAC0.001.7925.0044.26-0.00-0.20
DrakeMVC10.001.780.0021.20-10.00-1.03
EvansvilleMVC0.001.7875.0068.120.000.65
MilwaukeeHorz10.001.7825.0035.81-5.00-0.51
RichmondA100.001.7550.0062.920.000.45
PepperdineWCC0.001.7566.6753.650.000.13
PurdueB1010.001.7380.0067.356.000.60
Georgia St.SB0.001.7260.0068.010.000.62
Ball St.MAC10.001.7050.0048.230.00-0.06
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.001.700.0067.04-0.000.58
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.001.67100.0056.850.000.23
XavierBE0.001.67100.0078.000.000.93
Northern IowaMVC0.000.32100.0077.870.000.18
Missouri St.MVC0.000.2933.3348.21-0.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.2450.0064.460.000.07
ValparaisoHorz0.000.2175.0056.110.000.03
North DakotaBSky0.000.2133.3351.25-0.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.210.0028.02-0.00-0.09
Louisiana LafayetteSB1.000.2025.0052.42-0.500.01
IdahoBSky0.000.1933.3348.86-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.000.1820.0042.43-0.00-0.03
BradleyMVC0.000.1750.0031.400.00-0.06
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.1750.0042.050.00-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1740.0047.94-0.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.17100.0083.180.000.12
Green BayHorz0.000.1775.0078.500.000.10
AkronMAC0.000.1660.0066.680.000.05
HamptonMEAC0.000.1616.6745.35-0.00-0.01
MontanaBSky0.000.1533.3351.33-0.000.00
CreightonBE0.000.15100.0061.500.000.03
BelmontOVC0.000.1580.0075.550.000.08
DetroitHorz0.000.1560.0059.160.000.03
Arkansas St.SB0.000.140.0036.05-0.00-0.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.1340.0033.19-0.00-0.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.1320.0031.24-0.00-0.05
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1325.0049.53-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1320.0031.46-0.00-0.05
MemphisAmer0.000.1333.3360.46-0.000.03
PacificWCC0.000.1333.3332.18-0.00-0.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.120.0033.42-0.00-0.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.120.0035.88-0.00-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.000.1275.0066.230.000.04
William & MaryCAA0.000.1275.0055.000.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.1240.0026.71-0.00-0.06
Montana St.BSky0.000.120.0020.51-0.00-0.07
IowaB100.000.1266.6765.220.000.04
Southern MissCUSA0.000.1266.6751.730.000.00
BYUWCC0.830.1250.0067.630.000.04
Murray St.OVC0.000.1233.3367.57-0.000.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.1220.0038.45-0.00-0.03
Idaho St.BSky0.000.120.0023.57-0.00-0.06
MarquetteBE0.000.1260.0039.990.00-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.12100.0071.260.000.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.1250.0040.660.00-0.02
Saint LouisA101.000.1275.0046.860.50-0.01
DePaulBE1.250.1266.6725.500.42-0.06
MissouriSEC0.830.1240.0036.39-0.17-0.03
StanfordP120.000.1180.0071.340.000.05
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.1133.3352.29-0.000.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.1150.0028.400.00-0.05
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.1166.6751.540.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.1150.0051.380.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.1125.0043.61-0.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.000.1166.6748.060.00-0.00
TroySB0.000.110.0044.27-0.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.1160.0053.140.000.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.100.0019.02-0.00-0.06
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.100.0028.59-0.00-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.100.0063.05-0.000.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.090.0036.81-0.00-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0914.2930.86-0.00-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0925.0047.85-0.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.000.09100.0078.880.000.05
BuffaloMAC0.000.0975.0064.570.000.03
UtahP121.670.0975.0073.700.830.04
Bowling GreenMAC1.250.09100.0059.991.250.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0980.0072.320.000.04
PortlandWCC0.000.09100.0051.100.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.0960.0050.240.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0950.0059.430.000.02
Western MichiganMAC1.250.0950.0048.100.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.0950.0048.990.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.090.0018.96-0.00-0.05
OaklandHorz0.000.0916.6726.26-0.00-0.04
ButlerBE0.000.0980.0071.410.000.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0933.3337.74-0.00-0.02
Kansas St.B120.830.0950.0046.120.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.0975.0052.330.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.000.09100.0069.610.000.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0850.0036.580.00-0.02
IllinoisB101.000.08100.0067.701.000.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0720.0035.95-0.00-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0666.6758.150.000.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0633.3334.34-0.00-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.060.0036.65-0.00-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.0675.0044.850.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.060.0025.17-0.00-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0633.3329.78-0.00-0.03
StetsonASun0.000.060.0029.60-0.00-0.03
TexasB120.000.06100.0079.050.000.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0625.0039.20-0.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0616.6739.60-0.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.06100.0062.000.000.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0620.0043.38-0.00-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0625.0031.20-0.00-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0633.3358.80-0.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.060.0025.08-0.00-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0650.0037.530.00-0.02
Austin PeayOVC1.000.0620.0039.02-0.60-0.01
MarylandB100.000.06100.0071.310.000.03
Air ForceMWC0.000.0633.3345.53-0.00-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.060.0022.17-0.00-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0055.370.000.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0052.530.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.000.06100.0088.610.000.05
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0650.0025.280.00-0.03
NevadaMWC0.000.0625.0043.15-0.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0650.0070.920.000.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.060.0051.90-0.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0650.0047.680.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.000.0680.0070.540.000.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0650.0042.750.00-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0625.0037.88-0.00-0.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0625.0045.33-0.00-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0650.0032.470.00-0.02
ToledoMAC0.000.0640.0060.45-0.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0660.0055.660.000.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0660.0055.000.000.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0625.0052.78-0.000.00
AuburnSEC1.000.0660.0037.710.20-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.060.0023.13-0.00-0.03
NJITind0.000.0620.0030.12-0.00-0.02
OhioMAC0.000.0666.6752.280.000.00
BryantNEC0.000.0633.3346.36-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0640.0032.81-0.00-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.0680.0063.370.000.02
New OrleansSlnd0.000.060.0035.74-0.00-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.06100.0065.930.000.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0065.020.000.02
Seton HallBE0.000.06100.0063.120.000.02
St. John'sBE0.000.06100.0056.410.000.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0675.0051.700.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0675.0050.750.000.00
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0075.980.000.03
WoffordSC0.000.0680.0077.100.000.03
WyomingMWC0.000.06100.0069.490.000.02
DuquesneA100.000.06100.0053.990.000.00
FordhamA100.000.060.0026.23-0.00-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC2.500.060.0020.98-2.50-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.000.0680.0046.880.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.000.0625.0046.52-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.000.06100.0087.590.000.04
Iowa St.B120.000.0675.0061.130.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0580.0074.880.000.03
DavidsonA100.000.0566.6764.030.000.02
George MasonA100.000.0520.0022.17-0.00-0.03
George WashingtonA100.000.0575.0069.240.000.02
IndianaB100.000.0580.0056.380.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0550.0055.020.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.05100.0064.840.000.02
Ohio St.B100.000.05100.0074.590.000.03
RutgersB100.000.0550.0024.450.00-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.000.0575.0052.070.000.00
VCUA100.000.0580.0073.390.000.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0015.46-0.00-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.0380.0074.090.000.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.030.0039.39-0.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0089.470.000.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0325.0043.27-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0016.54-0.00-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0366.6741.200.00-0.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0360.0053.400.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.03100.0079.690.000.02
BrownIvy1.000.0316.6730.56-0.67-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0340.0037.90-0.00-0.01
CornellIvy0.000.0342.8641.73-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0380.0079.440.000.02
LongwoodBSth0.000.0320.0022.33-0.00-0.02
Oklahoma St.B121.000.03100.0060.401.000.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0383.3384.390.000.02
San Jose St.MWC0.000.030.0017.77-0.00-0.02
UMBCAE0.000.030.0027.48-0.00-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0380.0058.550.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0340.0054.55-0.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0366.6750.170.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0320.0050.32-0.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0325.0068.20-0.000.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0340.0047.99-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.000.0375.0071.300.000.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0340.0058.41-0.000.00
High PointBSth0.000.0375.0056.960.000.00
La SalleA100.000.03100.0056.910.000.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0383.3366.830.000.01
MichiganB100.000.0375.0066.060.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0380.0074.350.000.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0340.0051.36-0.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.000.0380.0067.100.000.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0383.3338.760.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0383.3369.110.000.01
Penn St.B100.000.0383.3348.340.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.0366.6756.430.000.00
SamfordSC0.830.0333.3335.99-0.28-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.03100.0053.730.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.0366.6751.440.000.00