IUPUI

Conference:	Sum
Expected RPI:	211.0
Current RPI:	211
Expected SOS:	156
Current SOS:	156
Current Record:	12-18
Expected Record:	12-18
Current Conf Record:	7-12
Expected Conf Record:	7-12
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-6
Current OOC Record:	5-6
Expected OOC Record:	5-6
Expected OOC RPI:	157
Expected OOC SOS:	141

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
12-18	211.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for IUPUI.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-15	Arkansas Little Rock (176.0)	SB	A	75-70	L	0%
11-18	Wisconsin Milwaukee (125.0)	Horz	A	62-49	L	0%
11-20	Eastern Michigan (243.0)	MAC	H	64-66	L	0%
11-23	Ball St. (256.0)	MAC	A	69-62	L	0%
11-26	Texas Southern (234.0)	SWAC	H	74-55	W	100%
11-28	Georgetown (15.0)	BE	A	81-58	L	0%
12-1	South Dakota St. (42.0)	Sum	H	93-97	L	0%
12-3	North Dakota St. (184.0)	Sum	H	79-84	L	0%
12-7	Louisville (13.0)	BE	A	90-60	L	0%
12-10	Western Kentucky (189.0)	SB	H	84-76	W	100%
12-19	Ball St. (256.0)	MAC	H	66-57	W	100%
12-23	Valparaiso (95.0)	Horz	H	97-88	W	100%
12-30	Western Illinois (150.0)	Sum	H	75-68	W	100%
1-3	Missouri Kansas City (266.0)	Sum	H	83-74	W	100%
1-5	IUPU Fort Wayne (278.0)	Sum	A	72-67	L	0%
1-7	Oakland (139.0)	Sum	A	93-81	L	0%
1-12	Southern Utah (232.0)	Sum	H	64-72	L	0%
1-14	Oral Roberts (51.0)	Sum	H	71-81	L	0%
1-19	South Dakota (291.0)	Sum	A	88-78	L	0%
1-21	Missouri Kansas City (266.0)	Sum	A	64-62	L	0%
1-28	Western Illinois (150.0)	Sum	A	57-55	L	0%
2-1	Oakland (139.0)	Sum	H	79-75	W	100%
2-4	IUPU Fort Wayne (278.0)	Sum	H	66-63	W	100%
2-9	Oral Roberts (51.0)	Sum	A	76-74	L	0%
2-11	Southern Utah (232.0)	Sum	A	53-66	W	100%
2-15	South Dakota (291.0)	Sum	H	88-70	W	100%
2-18	Nicholls St. (298.0)	Slnd	A	80-84	W	100%
2-23	North Dakota St. (184.0)	Sum	A	68-74	W	100%
2-25	South Dakota St. (42.0)	Sum	A	75-64	L	0%
3-3	South Dakota St. (42.0)	Sum	N	77-56	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

IUPUI's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

IUPUI's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against IUPUI.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
IUPUI	Sum	26.52	26.52	38.71	38.71	-5.99	-5.99
South Dakota St.	Sum	6.05	6.05	75.86	75.86	3.13	3.13
Western Illinois	Sum	4.49	4.49	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Oral Roberts	Sum	4.47	4.47	80.65	80.65	2.74	2.74
Southern Utah	Sum	4.44	4.44	40.74	40.74	-0.82	-0.82
Oakland	Sum	4.40	4.40	51.72	51.72	0.15	0.15
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	4.38	4.38	28.00	28.00	-1.93	-1.93
North Dakota St.	Sum	4.36	4.36	53.85	53.85	0.34	0.34
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	4.31	4.31	29.63	29.63	-1.76	-1.76
South Dakota	Sum	4.29	4.29	26.09	26.09	-2.05	-2.05
Ball St.	MAC	3.41	3.41	48.15	48.15	-0.13	-0.13
Valparaiso	Horz	1.84	1.84	66.67	66.67	0.61	0.61
Eastern Michigan	MAC	1.83	1.83	40.00	40.00	-0.37	-0.37
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	1.82	1.82	44.83	44.83	-0.19	-0.19
Texas Southern	SWAC	1.78	1.78	46.88	46.88	-0.11	-0.11
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	1.77	1.77	56.67	56.67	0.24	0.24
Western Kentucky	SB	1.75	1.75	46.88	46.88	-0.11	-0.11
Louisville	BE	1.72	1.72	73.53	73.53	0.81	0.81
Georgetown	BE	1.69	1.69	72.41	72.41	0.76	0.76
Nicholls St.	Slnd	1.67	1.67	29.63	29.63	-0.68	-0.68
Western Michigan	MAC	0.44	0.44	39.39	39.39	-0.09	-0.09
North Dakota	GWC	0.39	0.39	48.15	48.15	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.25	0.25	13.79	13.79	-0.18	-0.18
Butler	Horz	0.24	0.24	57.58	57.58	0.04	0.04
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.22	0.22	25.00	25.00	-0.11	-0.11
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.19	0.19	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Troy	SB	0.19	0.19	33.33	33.33	-0.06	-0.06
Canisius	MAAC	0.19	0.19	16.67	16.67	-0.13	-0.13
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.17	0.17	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.17	0.17	32.26	32.26	-0.06	-0.06
Toledo	MAC	0.17	0.17	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.16	0.16	38.71	38.71	-0.04	-0.04
Michigan St.	B10	0.16	0.16	78.79	78.79	0.09	0.09
Buffalo	MAC	0.16	0.16	64.29	64.29	0.05	0.05
Ohio	MAC	0.16	0.16	78.79	78.79	0.09	0.09
Akron	MAC	0.16	0.16	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Florida International	SB	0.15	0.15	28.57	28.57	-0.07	-0.07
Nebraska	B10	0.14	0.14	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.14	0.14	6.90	6.90	-0.12	-0.12
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.14	0.14	10.71	10.71	-0.11	-0.11
Arizona	P12	0.14	0.14	67.65	67.65	0.05	0.05
Minnesota	B10	0.14	0.14	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.14	0.14	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Detroit	Horz	0.13	0.13	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Denver	SB	0.13	0.13	70.97	70.97	0.06	0.06
Marquette	BE	0.13	0.13	78.12	78.12	0.07	0.07
Morehead St.	OVC	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Chicago St.	GWC	0.12	0.12	10.71	10.71	-0.09	-0.09
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.12	0.12	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.11	0.11	13.33	13.33	-0.08	-0.08
Michigan	B10	0.11	0.11	71.88	71.88	0.05	0.05
Xavier	A10	0.11	0.11	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Utah Valley	GWC	0.11	0.11	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.11	0.11	32.14	32.14	-0.04	-0.04
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.11	0.11	67.74	67.74	0.04	0.04
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.11	0.11	20.69	20.69	-0.06	-0.06
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.11	0.11	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
North Texas	SB	0.11	0.11	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Arkansas St.	SB	0.10	0.10	39.39	39.39	-0.02	-0.02
Grambling	SWAC	0.10	0.10	14.29	14.29	-0.07	-0.07
Cincinnati	BE	0.10	0.10	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Pittsburgh	BE	0.10	0.10	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
DePaul	BE	0.10	0.10	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Syracuse	BE	0.10	0.10	93.94	93.94	0.09	0.09
West Virginia	BE	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.10	0.10	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Texas St.	Slnd	0.10	0.10	34.62	34.62	-0.03	-0.03
Purdue	B10	0.09	0.09	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.08	0.08	34.62	34.62	-0.03	-0.03
Kent St.	MAC	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
Wisconsin	B10	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Lamar	Slnd	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Alabama	SEC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Illinois St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.08	0.08	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
Providence	BE	0.08	0.08	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
St. John's	BE	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.08	0.08	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.08	0.08	80.00	80.00	0.05	0.05
Missouri St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.08	0.08	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.08	0.08	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Mercer	ASun	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Niagara	MAAC	0.08	0.08	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Washington	P12	0.08	0.08	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.08	0.08	19.23	19.23	-0.05	-0.05
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Notre Dame	BE	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Seton Hall	BE	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.07	0.07	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.07	0.07	62.07	62.07	0.02	0.02
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.06	0.06	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Iowa	B10	0.06	0.06	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Arizona St.	P12	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.06	0.06	23.08	23.08	-0.03	-0.03
Dayton	A10	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.06	0.06	37.04	37.04	-0.02	-0.02
Evansville	MVC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Fresno St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.06	0.06	11.11	11.11	-0.05	-0.05
San Francisco	WCC	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.06	0.06	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Bradley	MVC	0.06	0.06	21.88	21.88	-0.03	-0.03
Bryant	NEC	0.06	0.06	6.67	6.67	-0.05	-0.05
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Indiana St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Longwood	ind	0.06	0.06	22.22	22.22	-0.03	-0.03
New Mexico	MWC	0.06	0.06	81.25	81.25	0.04	0.04
San Diego St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.06	0.06	32.00	32.00	-0.02	-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Utah St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Weber St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	78.57	78.57	0.03	0.03
Wofford	SC	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Houston	CUSA	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	94.12	94.12	0.05	0.05
Rutgers	BE	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.05	0.05	82.35	82.35	0.03	0.03
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.03	0.03	67.86	67.86	0.01	0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.03	0.03	25.93	25.93	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Texas	B12	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Tulane	CUSA	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
American	Pat	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas	B12	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
NC Greensboro	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
Colgate	Pat	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Fairfield	MAAC	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Georgia Southern	SC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Radford	BSth	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.03	0.03	21.43	21.43	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Baylor	B12	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	96.43	96.43	0.02	0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.02	0.02	10.34	10.34	-0.02	-0.02
Long Beach St.	BW	0.02	0.02	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.02	0.02	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01