IUPUI

Conference:	Horz
Expected RPI:	294.0
Current RPI:	294
Expected SOS:	266
Current SOS:	266
Current Record:	9-19
Expected Record:	9-19
Current Conf Record:	8-11
Expected Conf Record:	8-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-9
Current OOC Record:	1-8
Expected OOC Record:	1-8
Expected OOC RPI:	325
Expected OOC SOS:	198

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
9-19	294.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for IUPUI.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Bradley (105.0)	MVC	A	68-53	L	0%
11-17	Eastern Illinois (262.0)	OVC	A	80-79	L	0%
11-21	Morehead St. (292.0)	OVC	H	67-61	W	100%
11-28	Western Illinois (302.0)	Sum	A	90-77	L	0%
12-2	Ball St. (126.0)	MAC	A	83-64	L	0%
12-6	SIU Edwardsville (287.0)	OVC	H	81-82	L	0%
12-10	Purdue (9.0)	B10	A	86-61	L	0%
12-16	Washington St. (179.0)	P12	A	72-59	L	0%
12-18	Gonzaga (21.0)	WCC	A	101-71	L	0%
12-28	Northern Kentucky (115.0)	Horz	A	77-59	L	0%
12-30	Wright St. (99.0)	Horz	A	60-52	L	0%
1-2	Green Bay (303.0)	Horz	A	63-67	W	100%
1-4	Illinois Chicago (236.0)	Horz	H	65-70	L	0%
1-10	Milwaukee (231.0)	Horz	H	72-71	W	100%
1-12	Green Bay (303.0)	Horz	H	67-61	W	100%
1-16	Detroit (318.0)	Horz	H	81-66	W	100%
1-18	Cleveland St. (282.0)	Horz	A	70-67	L	0%
1-20	Youngstown St. (329.0)	Horz	A	85-62	L	0%
1-27	Illinois Chicago (236.0)	Horz	A	71-62	L	0%
2-2	Detroit (318.0)	Horz	A	74-60	L	0%
2-4	Oakland (182.0)	Horz	A	82-74	L	0%
2-8	Cleveland St. (282.0)	Horz	H	78-73	W	100%
2-10	Youngstown St. (329.0)	Horz	H	80-84	L	0%
2-16	Milwaukee (231.0)	Horz	A	71-76	W	100%
2-19	Oakland (182.0)	Horz	H	74-67	W	100%
2-23	Wright St. (99.0)	Horz	H	66-56	W	100%
2-25	Northern Kentucky (115.0)	Horz	H	56-75	L	0%
3-4	Oakland (182.0)	Horz	N	62-55	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

IUPUI's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

IUPUI's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against IUPUI.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
IUPUI	Horz	26.44	26.44	31.82	31.82	-9.62	-9.62
Oakland	Horz	6.34	6.34	56.67	56.67	0.85	0.85
Cleveland St.	Horz	4.82	4.82	31.25	31.25	-1.81	-1.81
Wright St.	Horz	4.72	4.72	73.33	73.33	2.20	2.20
Milwaukee	Horz	4.70	4.70	51.72	51.72	0.16	0.16
Green Bay	Horz	4.69	4.69	35.71	35.71	-1.34	-1.34
Northern Kentucky	Horz	4.63	4.63	66.67	66.67	1.54	1.54
Detroit	Horz	4.61	4.61	17.86	17.86	-2.96	-2.96
Illinois Chicago	Horz	4.60	4.60	46.43	46.43	-0.33	-0.33
Youngstown St.	Horz	4.60	4.60	14.29	14.29	-3.28	-3.28
Eastern Illinois	OVC	2.04	2.04	32.14	32.14	-0.73	-0.73
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	1.94	1.94	27.59	27.59	-0.87	-0.87
Western Illinois	Sum	1.93	1.93	30.43	30.43	-0.76	-0.76
Morehead St.	OVC	1.91	1.91	23.08	23.08	-1.03	-1.03
Bradley	MVC	1.82	1.82	58.06	58.06	0.29	0.29
Purdue	B10	1.82	1.82	81.82	81.82	1.16	1.16
Ball St.	MAC	1.79	1.79	56.67	56.67	0.24	0.24
Gonzaga	WCC	1.79	1.79	87.88	87.88	1.35	1.35
Washington St.	P12	1.79	1.79	36.67	36.67	-0.48	-0.48
Western Michigan	MAC	0.31	0.31	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.31	0.31	66.67	66.67	0.10	0.10
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.30	0.30	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Belmont	OVC	0.30	0.30	72.73	72.73	0.14	0.14
Murray St.	OVC	0.27	0.27	82.76	82.76	0.18	0.18
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.26	0.26	84.38	84.38	0.18	0.18
Kent St.	MAC	0.25	0.25	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.24	0.24	46.43	46.43	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.23	0.23	36.67	36.67	-0.06	-0.06
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.22	0.22	58.62	58.62	0.04	0.04
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.22	0.22	41.38	41.38	-0.04	-0.04
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.19	0.19	31.03	31.03	-0.07	-0.07
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.19	0.19	27.59	27.59	-0.08	-0.08
Austin Peay	OVC	0.18	0.18	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.18	0.18	71.88	71.88	0.08	0.08
Wisconsin	B10	0.17	0.17	45.45	45.45	-0.02	-0.02
Chicago St.	WAC	0.17	0.17	3.33	3.33	-0.15	-0.15
Michigan St.	B10	0.16	0.16	87.88	87.88	0.12	0.12
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.16	0.16	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Butler	BE	0.16	0.16	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.16	0.16	28.57	28.57	-0.07	-0.07
Indiana St.	MVC	0.14	0.14	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Valparaiso	MVC	0.14	0.14	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Michigan	B10	0.14	0.14	79.41	79.41	0.08	0.08
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.14	0.14	44.12	44.12	-0.02	-0.02
South Dakota	Sum	0.13	0.13	73.33	73.33	0.06	0.06
Rutgers	B10	0.13	0.13	42.42	42.42	-0.02	-0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.13	0.13	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Miami OH	MAC	0.12	0.12	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.12	0.12	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Illinois St.	MVC	0.12	0.12	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Oregon	P12	0.12	0.12	64.71	64.71	0.03	0.03
San Diego St.	MWC	0.11	0.11	67.74	67.74	0.04	0.04
Jacksonville	ASun	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Missouri St.	MVC	0.11	0.11	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.11	0.11	80.00	80.00	0.07	0.07
Akron	MAC	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Vermont	AE	0.09	0.09	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Stetson	ASun	0.09	0.09	28.57	28.57	-0.04	-0.04
Bowling Green	MAC	0.09	0.09	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.09	0.09	24.24	24.24	-0.05	-0.05
Idaho St.	BSky	0.09	0.09	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Seattle	WAC	0.09	0.09	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
UCLA	P12	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Central Michigan	MAC	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Indiana	B10	0.09	0.09	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Utah St.	MWC	0.09	0.09	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.09	0.09	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Washington	P12	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Drake	MVC	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Fairfield	MAAC	0.08	0.08	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.08	0.08	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.08	0.08	84.85	84.85	0.06	0.06
Kansas	B12	0.08	0.08	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
New Orleans	Slnd	0.08	0.08	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Syracuse	ACC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Towson	CAA	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
BYU	WCC	0.08	0.08	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
San Francisco	WCC	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Denver	Sum	0.07	0.07	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.07	0.07	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.07	0.07	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Memphis	Amer	0.06	0.06	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
UMBC	AE	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
South Alabama	SB	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.06	0.06	23.08	23.08	-0.03	-0.03
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	6.67	6.67	-0.05	-0.05
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.06	0.06	10.71	10.71	-0.05	-0.05
Kentucky	SEC	0.06	0.06	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Missouri	SEC	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Louis	A10	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Troy	SB	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.06	0.06	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
California	P12	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Colorado	P12	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Elon	CAA	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
FIU	CUSA	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Montana St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Stanford	P12	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Utah	P12	0.06	0.06	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Marquette	BE	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Creighton	BE	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Evansville	MVC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.06	0.06	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Arizona	P12	0.06	0.06	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Arkansas St.	SB	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	Amer	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	15.62	15.62	-0.04	-0.04
East Carolina	Amer	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland	B10	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Pacific	WCC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.05	0.05	16.13	16.13	-0.04	-0.04
Portland	WCC	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
San Diego	WCC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
American	Pat	0.04	0.04	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Xavier	BE	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Arizona St.	P12	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Bucknell	Pat	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Idaho	BSky	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Notre Dame	ACC	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Oklahoma	B12	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Stony Brook	AE	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
USC	P12	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
UTEP	CUSA	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SB	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Little Rock	SB	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
UTSA	CUSA	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Weber St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.03	0.03	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Louisville	ACC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
North Dakota	BSky	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Texas	B12	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Villanova	BE	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02