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Through games of Dec 16, 2014.


IUPUI

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:289.2
Current RPI:307
Expected SOS:179
Current SOS:253
Current Record:2-8
Expected Record:8-22
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:5-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-9
Current OOC Record:2-8
Expected OOC Record:3-11
Expected OOC RPI:290
Expected OOC SOS:137



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-12104.00.01%
16-14155.00.01%
15-15169.60.05%
14-16185.40.26%
13-17201.30.78%
12-18223.72.49%
11-19242.76.37%
10-20262.411.20%
9-21279.117.22%
8-22293.220.31%
7-23305.018.98%
6-24315.013.00%
5-25322.56.69%
4-26328.12.21%
3-27333.40.39%
2-28333.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for IUPUI.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Indiana St. (240.2)MVCH66-79L0%0.0
11-16Purdue (60.3)B10A77-57L0%0.0
11-19Milwaukee (258.2)HorzA68-70W100%0.0
11-22Ball St. (169.8)MACH71-69W100%0.0
11-25Drake (284.4)MVCA73-60L0%0.0
11-29Georgia St. (62.8)SBH63-66L0%0.0
12-6Evansville (81.1)MVCA89-62L0%0.0
12-9Xavier (22.7)BEA66-43L0%0.0
12-13Eastern Kentucky (170.0)OVCH64-73L0%0.0
12-15Howard (275.8)MEACA57-47L0%0.0
12-20South Alabama (242.5)SBH0-048%-0.6
12-23Richmond (92.2)A10A0-06%-18.2
12-27Pepperdine (122.9)WCCA0-07%-17.6
12-29North Carolina Central (153.3)MEACA0-011%-14.6
1-4IPFW (191.8)SumA0-016%-11.8
1-7Oral Roberts (214.2)SumA0-022%-9.3
1-10Denver (189.8)SumH0-040%-3.0
1-14South Dakota St. (160.2)SumA0-015%-12.1
1-18Nebraska Omaha (222.4)SumA0-018%-11.0
1-22North Dakota St. (169.7)SumH0-040%-2.9
1-24South Dakota (243.3)SumH0-048%-0.7
1-30Western Illinois (298.1)SumA0-038%-3.7
2-5Oral Roberts (214.2)SumH0-049%-0.3
2-7South Dakota St. (160.2)SumH0-039%-3.2
2-11IPFW (191.8)SumH0-041%-2.8
2-14Denver (189.8)SumA0-016%-11.9
2-19North Dakota St. (169.7)SumA0-016%-11.8
2-21South Dakota (243.3)SumA0-021%-9.7
2-26Western Illinois (298.1)SumH0-067%5.3
2-28Nebraska Omaha (222.4)SumH0-043%-2.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

IUPUI's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


IUPUI's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  IUPUI.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
IUPUISum28.0026.3821.7426.64-15.83-12.32
South DakotaSum0.004.2220.0039.00-0.00-0.93
Oral RobertsSum0.284.2244.4443.13-0.03-0.58
IPFWSum0.234.2157.1454.830.030.41
DenverSum0.004.2044.4453.80-0.000.32
Nebraska OmahaSum0.004.1937.5050.38-0.000.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.004.1957.1453.230.000.27
North Dakota St.Sum0.004.1855.5654.840.000.41
Western IllinoisSum0.004.1837.5030.35-0.00-1.64
Indiana St.MVC5.421.8125.0032.13-2.71-0.65
South AlabamaSB0.001.810.0038.99-0.00-0.40
MilwaukeeHorz5.001.7837.5035.28-1.25-0.53
HowardMEAC5.001.7825.0041.06-2.50-0.32
DrakeMVC5.001.7811.1117.73-3.89-1.15
EvansvilleMVC5.001.7871.4369.322.140.69
RichmondA100.281.7550.0054.930.000.17
PepperdineWCC0.001.7571.4359.240.000.32
PurdueB105.001.7370.0062.182.000.42
Georgia St.SB5.001.7266.6771.911.670.76
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.281.7044.4469.03-0.030.65
Ball St.MAC5.281.7040.0049.06-1.06-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC5.001.6733.3354.02-1.670.13
XavierBE5.001.6777.7870.172.780.67
Northern IowaMVC0.000.3290.0079.360.000.19
Missouri St.MVC0.000.2942.8638.69-0.00-0.07
Illinois St.MVC0.000.2462.5065.100.000.07
ValparaisoHorz1.020.2180.0069.650.610.08
North DakotaBSky0.250.2125.0033.19-0.13-0.07
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.210.0014.53-0.00-0.15
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.280.2042.8652.83-0.040.01
MemphisAmer0.280.1950.0059.030.000.03
IdahoBSky0.000.1937.5049.62-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.280.1822.2242.30-0.15-0.03
Green BayHorz0.920.1771.4377.180.390.09
BradleyMVC0.000.1733.3332.65-0.00-0.06
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.1766.6754.790.000.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1760.0050.220.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.1787.5085.930.000.12
AkronMAC0.000.1660.0056.480.000.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.1544.4449.79-0.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.280.1525.0050.98-0.140.00
BelmontOVC0.310.1560.0062.380.060.04
DetroitHorz0.000.1550.0053.430.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.1472.7351.370.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.230.1420.0033.83-0.14-0.05
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1337.5048.43-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1320.0020.84-0.00-0.07
PacificWCC0.000.1342.8638.51-0.00-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.120.0023.06-0.00-0.07
Kent St.MAC0.000.1271.4360.170.000.03
William & MaryCAA0.280.1257.1456.250.040.02
Miami OHMAC0.310.1222.2227.10-0.17-0.06
Savannah St.MEAC0.360.1218.1827.73-0.23-0.05
Montana St.BSky0.000.1225.0027.78-0.00-0.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.1220.0033.87-0.00-0.04
IowaB100.000.1272.7362.660.000.03
Southern MissCUSA0.000.1250.0032.740.00-0.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.420.1233.3339.81-0.14-0.02
BYUWCC0.580.1266.6767.890.190.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.1211.1129.23-0.00-0.05
Idaho St.BSky0.000.1216.6733.31-0.00-0.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.1271.4356.890.000.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.1250.0051.120.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.810.1250.0058.490.000.02
Saint LouisA100.280.1255.5631.620.03-0.04
StanfordP120.000.1171.4361.160.000.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.1128.5726.77-0.00-0.05
MarquetteBE0.000.1155.5647.220.00-0.01
MissouriSEC0.480.1144.4431.46-0.05-0.04
Appalachian St.SB0.000.1142.8633.13-0.00-0.04
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.1142.8639.29-0.00-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.1160.0064.120.000.03
Texas St.SB0.000.1160.0047.810.00-0.00
TroySB0.000.1133.3341.99-0.00-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.1155.5655.850.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.1133.3347.11-0.00-0.01
DePaulBE0.530.1166.6739.030.18-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.1033.3363.92-0.000.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.090.0013.10-0.00-0.07
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.280.090.0022.93-0.28-0.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0922.2236.43-0.00-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0941.6743.24-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0950.0056.650.000.01
Miami FLACC0.280.0990.0075.840.220.05
BuffaloMAC0.000.0975.0069.770.000.04
UtahP120.420.0977.7880.520.230.05
Bowling GreenMAC0.250.0975.0066.870.130.03
PortlandWCC0.250.0975.0049.190.13-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.310.0944.4449.60-0.03-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.250.0962.5054.950.060.01
Wright St.Horz0.310.0955.5653.100.030.01
Chicago St.WAC0.360.090.0011.59-0.36-0.07
OaklandHorz0.360.0930.0031.51-0.14-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0922.2230.22-0.00-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0975.0070.980.000.04
Kansas St.B120.230.0960.0038.270.05-0.02
NebraskaB100.000.0966.6742.930.00-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.250.0954.5557.870.020.01
Colorado St.MWC0.360.09100.0077.640.360.05
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0855.5639.850.00-0.02
ButlerBE0.280.0880.0072.430.170.04
IllinoisB100.280.0870.0066.410.110.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0711.1143.47-0.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0633.3332.44-0.00-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.0644.4447.41-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0677.7851.200.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.060.0013.85-0.00-0.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0630.0028.28-0.00-0.03
StetsonASun0.000.0611.1129.36-0.00-0.03
TexasB120.000.0690.0081.780.000.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.360.0671.4364.440.150.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0655.5639.260.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0620.0047.17-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.060.0017.65-0.00-0.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0650.0050.190.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0633.3340.42-0.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0620.0037.42-0.00-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.280.0622.2231.80-0.15-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.250.0610.0040.34-0.20-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0657.1459.520.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.060.0015.96-0.00-0.04
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0683.3363.180.000.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0683.3366.520.000.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.0690.0091.020.000.05
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0628.5722.66-0.00-0.03
NevadaMWC0.000.0612.5024.45-0.00-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0640.0065.07-0.000.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0633.3359.83-0.000.01
OklahomaB120.000.0677.7868.030.000.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0675.0050.490.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0650.0041.450.00-0.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0637.5045.72-0.00-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0642.8644.96-0.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0655.5655.960.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0655.5657.230.000.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0650.0053.970.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.0628.5742.20-0.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0650.0033.140.00-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.310.0630.0028.54-0.12-0.03
NJITind0.000.0636.3641.92-0.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0650.0037.020.00-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0675.0065.380.000.02
MarylandB100.000.0690.9167.920.000.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.250.0640.0049.29-0.05-0.00
BryantNEC0.000.0628.5746.92-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0644.4440.58-0.00-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.060.0039.09-0.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0074.020.000.03
UNLVMWC0.000.0671.4350.790.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0633.3341.10-0.00-0.01
WoffordSC0.000.0675.0077.280.000.03
WyomingMWC0.000.0677.7873.060.000.03
AuburnSEC0.280.0637.5032.05-0.07-0.02
DuquesneA100.280.0633.3338.84-0.09-0.01
FordhamA100.000.0628.5727.72-0.00-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.640.060.0011.08-0.64-0.04
James MadisonCAA0.000.0666.6753.260.000.00
RadfordBSth0.280.0650.0054.960.000.01
WisconsinB100.280.0690.9188.300.230.04
Iowa St.B120.360.0688.8964.670.280.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0587.5080.890.000.03
DavidsonA100.000.0587.5076.910.000.03
George MasonA100.000.0525.0025.93-0.00-0.03
George WashingtonA100.000.0566.6766.860.000.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.0566.6759.740.000.01
IndianaB100.000.0580.0057.560.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.500.0540.0050.27-0.100.00
MinnesotaB100.000.0577.7864.850.000.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.230.0580.0063.530.140.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0588.8984.020.000.04
ProvidenceBE0.000.0572.7352.480.000.00
RutgersB100.000.0560.0035.390.00-0.02
Seton HallBE0.000.0588.8964.060.000.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.0575.0064.650.000.02
St. John'sBE0.000.0587.5064.670.000.02
VCUA100.000.0570.0071.110.000.02
VillanovaBE0.000.05100.0082.270.000.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0350.0051.980.000.00
KentuckySEC0.360.03100.0094.460.360.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.0310.0018.39-0.00-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.0370.0071.650.000.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0344.4447.24-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.360.0316.6727.17-0.24-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0371.4367.660.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0360.0053.940.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.0377.7871.340.000.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0336.3639.31-0.00-0.01
CornellIvy0.000.0355.5648.540.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0322.2227.64-0.00-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.280.0388.8964.140.220.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0377.7875.600.000.02
San Jose St.MWC0.000.030.007.95-0.00-0.03
UMBCAE0.280.0310.0021.35-0.22-0.02
BrownIvy0.280.0340.0034.21-0.06-0.01
IonaMAAC0.280.0366.6772.270.090.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0344.4444.49-0.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.360.0322.2245.74-0.20-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.250.0366.6755.560.080.00
DaytonA100.000.0377.7869.570.000.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0342.8656.16-0.000.00
High PointBSth0.000.0362.5055.430.000.00
La SalleA100.000.0350.0049.920.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0360.0055.070.000.00
MichiganB100.000.0355.5642.720.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0370.0070.960.000.01
North FloridaASun0.230.0350.0061.230.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0375.0061.240.000.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0366.6744.720.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.000.0390.9171.250.000.01
Penn St.B100.000.0390.9154.340.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.0362.5072.760.000.01
SamfordSC0.230.0333.3331.09-0.08-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.250.0362.5078.030.060.02
UTEPCUSA0.250.0366.6772.150.080.01
VanderbiltSEC0.230.0375.0060.540.110.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0350.0037.860.00-0.01