IUPUI

Conference:	Sum
Expected RPI:	326.0
Current RPI:	326
Expected SOS:	209
Current SOS:	209
Current Record:	4-26
Expected Record:	4-26
Current Conf Record:	1-16
Expected Conf Record:	1-16
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	4-10
Current OOC Record:	3-10
Expected OOC Record:	3-10
Expected OOC RPI:	281
Expected OOC SOS:	207

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
4-26	326.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for IUPUI.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Utah Valley (297.0)	GWC	H	67-54	W	100%
11-12	Michigan (20.0)	B10	A	91-54	L	0%
11-13	Bowling Green (274.0)	MAC	N	66-80	W	100%
11-17	Bradley (190.0)	MVC	H	72-79	L	0%
11-19	North Texas (247.0)	SB	N	80-66	L	0%
11-20	Lamar (335.0)	Slnd	N	82-86	L	0%
11-29	Missouri Kansas City (284.0)	Sum	A	79-65	L	0%
12-1	South Dakota (240.0)	Sum	A	88-68	L	0%
12-5	Butler (22.0)	A10	A	87-55	L	0%
12-8	Western Kentucky (150.0)	SB	A	77-57	L	0%
12-15	Indiana St. (74.0)	MVC	H	61-75	L	0%
12-20	Valparaiso (58.0)	Horz	A	89-69	L	0%
12-23	Ball St. (233.0)	MAC	A	68-77	W	100%
12-27	IUPU Fort Wayne (245.0)	Sum	H	88-74	W	100%
12-29	Oakland (152.0)	Sum	H	62-84	L	0%
1-1	Maryland (73.0)	ACC	A	81-63	L	0%
1-5	Western Illinois (122.0)	Sum	A	57-53	L	0%
1-10	Nebraska Omaha (285.0)	Sum	A	90-79	L	0%
1-17	North Dakota St. (72.0)	Sum	H	40-78	L	0%
1-19	South Dakota St. (62.0)	Sum	H	65-80	L	0%
1-24	Oakland (152.0)	Sum	A	89-71	L	0%
1-26	IUPU Fort Wayne (245.0)	Sum	A	80-79	L	0%
2-2	Western Illinois (122.0)	Sum	H	59-68	L	0%
2-9	Nebraska Omaha (285.0)	Sum	H	78-85	L	0%
2-14	South Dakota St. (62.0)	Sum	A	82-45	L	0%
2-16	North Dakota St. (72.0)	Sum	A	75-39	L	0%
2-23	Wisconsin Milwaukee (307.0)	Horz	H	88-95	L	0%
2-28	South Dakota (240.0)	Sum	H	69-87	L	0%
3-2	Missouri Kansas City (284.0)	Sum	H	44-48	L	0%
3-9	South Dakota St. (62.0)	Sum	A	66-49	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

IUPUI's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

IUPUI's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against IUPUI.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
IUPUI	Sum	26.38	26.38	12.86	12.86	-19.59	-19.59
South Dakota St.	Sum	5.89	5.89	67.86	67.86	2.11	2.11
North Dakota St.	Sum	4.40	4.40	68.97	68.97	1.67	1.67
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	4.36	4.36	44.83	44.83	-0.45	-0.45
South Dakota	Sum	4.28	4.28	23.08	23.08	-2.30	-2.30
Western Illinois	Sum	4.28	4.28	69.23	69.23	1.64	1.64
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	4.26	4.26	17.24	17.24	-2.79	-2.79
Oakland	Sum	4.25	4.25	42.86	42.86	-0.61	-0.61
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	4.17	4.17	29.63	29.63	-1.70	-1.70
Ball St.	MAC	1.87	1.87	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Valparaiso	Horz	1.83	1.83	77.42	77.42	1.00	1.00
Utah Valley	GWC	1.77	1.77	37.04	37.04	-0.46	-0.46
Bowling Green	MAC	1.75	1.75	37.93	37.93	-0.42	-0.42
Indiana St.	MVC	1.75	1.75	53.33	53.33	0.12	0.12
Bradley	MVC	1.75	1.75	48.39	48.39	-0.06	-0.06
North Texas	SB	1.74	1.74	34.48	34.48	-0.54	-0.54
Western Kentucky	SB	1.72	1.72	54.55	54.55	0.16	0.16
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	1.72	1.72	17.24	17.24	-1.13	-1.13
Butler	A10	1.70	1.70	75.00	75.00	0.85	0.85
Lamar	Slnd	1.69	1.69	6.67	6.67	-1.47	-1.47
Michigan	B10	1.69	1.69	77.42	77.42	0.93	0.93
Maryland	ACC	1.67	1.67	63.64	63.64	0.45	0.45
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.28	0.28	38.46	38.46	-0.06	-0.06
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.27	0.27	53.12	53.12	0.02	0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.27	0.27	41.94	41.94	-0.04	-0.04
North Dakota	BSky	0.27	0.27	46.67	46.67	-0.02	-0.02
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.25	0.25	37.93	37.93	-0.06	-0.06
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.22	0.22	42.86	42.86	-0.03	-0.03
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.22	0.22	41.94	41.94	-0.04	-0.04
Evansville	MVC	0.22	0.22	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.21	0.21	37.50	37.50	-0.05	-0.05
Chicago St.	GWC	0.20	0.20	25.00	25.00	-0.10	-0.10
Buffalo	MAC	0.20	0.20	37.50	37.50	-0.05	-0.05
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.20	0.20	39.29	39.29	-0.04	-0.04
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.20	0.20	13.79	13.79	-0.14	-0.14
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.19	0.19	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.19	0.19	48.28	48.28	-0.01	-0.01
Drake	MVC	0.19	0.19	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Western Michigan	MAC	0.17	0.17	61.29	61.29	0.04	0.04
Kansas St.	B12	0.17	0.17	78.79	78.79	0.10	0.10
Miami OH	MAC	0.17	0.17	26.67	26.67	-0.08	-0.08
Troy	SB	0.16	0.16	36.36	36.36	-0.04	-0.04
Alabama	SEC	0.16	0.16	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Wright St.	Horz	0.16	0.16	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Creighton	MVC	0.16	0.16	79.41	79.41	0.09	0.09
Minnesota	B10	0.16	0.16	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Indiana	B10	0.16	0.16	81.82	81.82	0.10	0.10
Arkansas St.	SB	0.16	0.16	60.00	60.00	0.03	0.03
Ohio	MAC	0.14	0.14	72.73	72.73	0.06	0.06
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.14	0.14	35.48	35.48	-0.04	-0.04
Akron	MAC	0.14	0.14	80.65	80.65	0.08	0.08
Central Michigan	MAC	0.14	0.14	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
Wisconsin	B10	0.14	0.14	67.65	67.65	0.05	0.05
Detroit	Horz	0.14	0.14	60.00	60.00	0.03	0.03
Michigan St.	B10	0.14	0.14	75.00	75.00	0.07	0.07
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.13	0.13	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.13	0.13	85.29	85.29	0.09	0.09
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.13	0.13	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Missouri St.	MVC	0.13	0.13	29.03	29.03	-0.06	-0.06
Murray St.	OVC	0.13	0.13	65.52	65.52	0.04	0.04
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.13	0.13	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
St. Louis	A10	0.13	0.13	81.82	81.82	0.08	0.08
Florida International	SB	0.13	0.13	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.13	0.13	14.81	14.81	-0.09	-0.09
South Alabama	SB	0.13	0.13	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.12	0.12	67.86	67.86	0.04	0.04
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.12	0.12	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.12	0.12	28.00	28.00	-0.05	-0.05
Iowa St.	B12	0.11	0.11	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Kent St.	MAC	0.11	0.11	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Iowa	B10	0.11	0.11	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Nebraska	B10	0.11	0.11	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Purdue	B10	0.11	0.11	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.11	0.11	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Navy	Pat	0.11	0.11	23.33	23.33	-0.06	-0.06
Illinois St.	MVC	0.11	0.11	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.11	0.11	78.79	78.79	0.06	0.06
Wichita St.	MVC	0.11	0.11	76.47	76.47	0.06	0.06
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.10	0.10	84.85	84.85	0.07	0.07
Virginia	ACC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Northwestern	B10	0.10	0.10	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.10	0.10	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Toledo	MAC	0.09	0.09	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.08	0.08	93.75	93.75	0.07	0.07
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Pittsburgh	BE	0.08	0.08	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
West Virginia	B12	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.08	0.08	37.04	37.04	-0.02	-0.02
Belmont	OVC	0.08	0.08	80.00	80.00	0.05	0.05
Hofstra	CAA	0.08	0.08	19.35	19.35	-0.05	-0.05
Marshall	CUSA	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Montana	BSky	0.08	0.08	79.31	79.31	0.05	0.05
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Louisville	BE	0.08	0.08	85.29	85.29	0.06	0.06
Penn St.	B10	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Illinois	B10	0.08	0.08	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Georgia Southern	SC	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.07	0.07	84.38	84.38	0.05	0.05
Wake Forest	ACC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Montana St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.06	0.06	48.00	48.00	-0.00	-0.00
Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.06	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Wyoming	MWC	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Denver	WAC	0.06	0.06	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Texas Tech	B12	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Tulane	CUSA	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Albany	AE	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Appalachian St.	SC	0.05	0.05	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.05	28.12	28.12	-0.02	-0.02
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.05	0.05	29.63	29.63	-0.02	-0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.05	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	10.00	10.00	-0.04	-0.04
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	70.37	70.37	0.02	0.02
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.05	73.53	73.53	0.03	0.03
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.05	0.05	85.19	85.19	0.04	0.04
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.05	0.05	17.86	17.86	-0.03	-0.03
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
New Orleans	ind	0.05	0.05	18.18	18.18	-0.03	-0.03
Temple	A10	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.05	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Long Island	NEC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.05	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
Pepperdine	WCC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Utah St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Grambling	SWAC	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	-0.03	-0.03
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Davidson	SC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Fairfield	MAAC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Samford	SC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Baylor	B12	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
High Point	BSth	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Texas St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Binghamton	AE	0.03	0.03	6.90	6.90	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Portland	WCC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Elon	SC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
George Mason	CAA	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Lafayette	Pat	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.02	0.02	7.14	7.14	-0.02	-0.02
Monmouth	NEC	0.02	0.02	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.02	0.02	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.02	0.02	76.67	76.67	0.01	0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01