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Through games of Nov 22, 2014.


IUPUI

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:261.8
Current RPI:223
Expected SOS:177
Current SOS:230
Current Record:2-2
Expected Record:10-20
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:5-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-6
Current OOC Record:2-2
Expected OOC Record:4-10
Expected OOC RPI:213
Expected OOC SOS:128



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-13136.00.03%
16-14149.70.30%
15-15161.80.99%
14-16182.22.33%
13-17202.85.19%
12-18219.29.05%
11-19238.613.98%
10-20255.617.39%
9-21273.118.33%
8-22289.214.85%
7-23302.69.92%
6-24314.05.02%
5-25323.31.91%
4-26333.50.59%
3-27339.50.10%
2-28345.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for IUPUI.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Indiana St. (158.5)MVCH66-79L0%0.0
11-16Purdue (64.5)B10A77-57L0%0.0
11-19Milwaukee (267.7)HorzA68-70W100%0.0
11-22Ball St. (233.5)MACH71-69W100%0.0
11-25Drake (273.9)MVCA0-037%-4.1
11-29Georgia St. (131.0)SBH0-033%-5.3
12-6Evansville (102.1)MVCA0-010%-15.1
12-9Xavier (14.6)BEA0-02%-25.3
12-13Eastern Kentucky (128.3)OVCH0-031%-6.1
12-15Howard (305.9)MEACA0-044%-1.7
12-20South Alabama (246.0)SBH0-055%1.4
12-23Richmond (51.7)A10A0-04%-20.4
12-27Pepperdine (152.9)WCCA0-014%-12.9
12-29North Carolina Central (153.1)MEACA0-013%-13.4
1-4IPFW (150.5)SumA0-013%-13.2
1-7Oral Roberts (161.1)SumA0-017%-11.4
1-10Denver (124.2)SumH0-029%-6.5
1-14South Dakota St. (172.6)SumA0-019%-10.5
1-18Nebraska Omaha (226.5)SumA0-026%-7.9
1-22North Dakota St. (210.6)SumH0-049%-0.3
1-24South Dakota (228.8)SumH0-046%-1.4
1-30Western Illinois (286.8)SumA0-036%-4.4
2-5Oral Roberts (161.1)SumH0-036%-4.2
2-7South Dakota St. (172.6)SumH0-039%-3.3
2-11IPFW (150.5)SumH0-031%-6.1
2-14Denver (124.2)SumA0-013%-13.7
2-19North Dakota St. (210.6)SumA0-027%-7.5
2-21South Dakota (228.8)SumA0-024%-8.5
2-26Western Illinois (286.8)SumH0-059%2.8
2-28Nebraska Omaha (226.5)SumH0-048%-0.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

IUPUI's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


IUPUI's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  IUPUI.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
IUPUISum34.3826.4050.0032.850.00-9.05
South DakotaSum0.004.230.0040.88-0.00-0.77
IPFWSum0.004.2250.0062.540.001.06
DenverSum0.004.2050.0060.150.000.85
Nebraska OmahaSum0.004.2066.6745.340.00-0.39
South Dakota St.Sum0.004.2033.3347.67-0.00-0.20
Oral RobertsSum0.004.1933.3347.51-0.00-0.21
North Dakota St.Sum0.004.1950.0043.360.00-0.56
Western IllinoisSum0.004.1833.3331.06-0.00-1.58
Indiana St.MVC12.501.8250.0050.250.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.001.810.0039.15-0.00-0.39
DrakeMVC0.001.790.0023.72-0.00-0.94
HowardMEAC0.001.790.0034.77-0.00-0.54
EvansvilleMVC0.001.78100.0062.550.000.45
RichmondA100.001.7566.6766.520.000.58
PepperdineWCC0.001.75100.0049.530.00-0.02
PurdueB1012.501.73100.0059.1412.500.32
Georgia St.SB0.001.720.0057.31-0.000.25
MilwaukeeHorz12.501.720.0034.47-12.50-0.54
Ball St.MAC12.501.700.0037.71-12.50-0.42
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.001.700.0071.40-0.000.73
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.001.67100.0063.890.000.46
XavierBE0.001.67100.0076.320.000.88
Northern IowaMVC0.000.32100.0072.420.000.14
Missouri St.MVC0.000.3050.0051.860.000.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.2450.0052.920.000.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.2266.6754.020.000.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.210.0033.68-0.00-0.07
North DakotaBSky0.000.210.0044.01-0.00-0.03
IdahoBSky0.000.1950.0047.120.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.1833.3355.40-0.000.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.180.0038.59-0.00-0.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1825.0049.94-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.18100.0085.100.000.13
BradleyMVC0.000.180.0027.82-0.00-0.08
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.170.0047.90-0.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.1666.6763.730.000.04
HamptonMEAC0.000.1625.0051.56-0.000.00
DetroitHorz0.000.1533.3354.50-0.000.01
MontanaBSky0.000.150.0048.00-0.00-0.01
BelmontOVC0.000.1566.6773.760.000.07
Green BayHorz0.000.150.0067.49-0.000.05
CreightonBE0.000.15100.0055.850.000.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.140.0042.47-0.00-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1333.3346.93-0.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1325.0035.65-0.00-0.04
MemphisAmer0.000.130.0066.25-0.000.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.1350.0041.720.00-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.130.0033.98-0.00-0.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.130.0037.13-0.00-0.03
PacificWCC0.000.1350.0029.910.00-0.05
Miami OHMAC0.000.1266.6734.100.00-0.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.120.0033.25-0.00-0.04
Kent St.MAC0.000.12100.0070.980.000.05
William & MaryCAA0.000.1266.6744.970.00-0.01
IowaB100.000.1250.0065.570.000.04
Montana St.BSky0.000.120.0023.51-0.00-0.06
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.1225.0035.61-0.00-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.000.1250.0053.430.000.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.1250.0071.840.000.05
DePaulBE0.000.12100.0037.850.00-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.120.0031.63-0.00-0.04
Idaho St.BSky0.000.120.0028.34-0.00-0.05
MarquetteBE0.000.1233.3340.91-0.00-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.12100.0071.830.000.05
Saint LouisA102.080.12100.0065.142.080.04
StanfordP120.000.1175.0071.090.000.05
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.110.0050.76-0.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.1133.3321.74-0.00-0.06
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.1150.0053.000.000.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.110.0046.56-0.00-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.1150.0062.580.000.03
Texas St.SB0.000.1166.6748.850.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.1175.0057.060.000.02
TroySB0.000.110.0045.18-0.00-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.100.0063.44-0.000.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.100.0018.27-0.00-0.06
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.100.0024.17-0.00-0.05
Wright St.Horz0.000.0966.6758.650.000.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.090.0032.69-0.00-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0920.0027.80-0.00-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0933.3345.85-0.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.090.0032.48-0.00-0.03
MissouriSEC0.000.0966.6749.590.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.000.09100.0070.030.000.04
Miami FLACC0.000.09100.0073.530.000.04
BuffaloMAC0.000.0966.6760.610.000.02
UtahP123.120.0966.6769.701.040.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.09100.0061.500.000.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.09100.0072.860.000.04
Kansas St.B120.000.0966.6754.240.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0966.6752.320.000.00
PortlandWCC0.000.09100.0051.660.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.0966.6748.330.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.09100.0054.710.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.090.0025.43-0.00-0.04
ButlerBE0.000.09100.0061.850.000.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0950.0044.170.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.09100.0067.100.000.03
Colorado St.MWC0.000.09100.0062.400.000.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0850.0037.110.00-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.070.0034.07-0.00-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0650.0052.290.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.000.0650.0037.760.00-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.060.0035.64-0.00-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.06100.0053.080.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.060.0025.03-0.00-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0620.0026.89-0.00-0.03
StetsonASun0.000.060.0032.07-0.00-0.02
TexasB120.000.06100.0081.740.000.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0633.3344.56-0.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.060.0040.40-0.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.06100.0063.820.000.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0633.3336.99-0.00-0.02
MarylandB100.000.06100.0064.500.000.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.060.0031.61-0.00-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0625.0059.16-0.000.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0625.0066.02-0.000.02
OklahomaB120.000.0650.0058.120.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.06100.0049.460.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.060.0028.50-0.00-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0650.0037.760.00-0.02
TulsaAmer0.000.0666.6753.050.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.060.0048.20-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC2.080.0666.6740.400.69-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.06100.0084.890.000.04
Austin PeayOVC0.000.060.0031.23-0.00-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.000.060.0033.08-0.00-0.02
OhioMAC0.000.0650.0056.270.000.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0650.0045.890.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.060.0019.92-0.00-0.04
Central MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0046.020.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0049.250.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.000.06100.0087.190.000.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0633.3327.10-0.00-0.03
NevadaMWC0.000.0633.3346.76-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.060.0053.10-0.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.06100.0045.990.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.000.06100.0062.040.000.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0650.0044.850.00-0.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0633.3349.04-0.00-0.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.06100.0030.790.00-0.02
ToledoMAC0.000.0633.3364.19-0.000.02
Utah St.MWC0.000.0675.0057.480.000.01
Grambling St.SWAC2.080.060.0025.50-2.08-0.03
NJITind0.000.0625.0025.21-0.00-0.03
BryantNEC0.000.0650.0054.900.000.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0625.0031.12-0.00-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.06100.0062.070.000.01
IndianaB100.000.06100.0062.040.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0666.6761.350.000.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.060.0033.75-0.00-0.02
Ohio St.B100.000.06100.0071.340.000.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.06100.0069.670.000.02
RutgersB100.000.0650.0037.560.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0666.6767.990.000.02
Seton HallBE0.000.06100.0056.980.000.01
St. John'sBE0.000.06100.0052.540.000.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0675.0053.210.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0666.6749.370.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0065.270.000.02
WoffordSC0.000.0675.0075.140.000.03
WyomingMWC0.000.06100.0070.850.000.02
DuquesneA100.000.06100.0052.610.000.00
FordhamA100.000.060.0035.11-0.00-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.0666.6746.540.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.000.0633.3348.73-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.000.06100.0061.830.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.06100.0059.190.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.05100.0080.090.000.03
DavidsonA100.000.0550.0053.040.000.00
George MasonA100.000.0525.0019.94-0.00-0.03
George WashingtonA100.000.0566.6776.510.000.03
St. BonaventureA100.000.0566.6752.550.000.00
VCUA100.000.05100.0073.570.000.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0018.48-0.00-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.03100.0073.290.000.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.03100.0073.660.000.02
Oklahoma St.B122.080.03100.0052.592.080.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.030.0034.98-0.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0085.630.000.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0333.3341.92-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0019.17-0.00-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0350.0033.700.00-0.01
Arizona St.P120.000.03100.0056.330.000.00
BrownIvy2.080.0325.0037.31-1.04-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0333.3335.92-0.00-0.01
CornellIvy0.000.0340.0040.58-0.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0366.6766.670.000.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0333.3322.74-0.00-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.000.03100.0080.630.000.02
San Jose St.MWC0.000.030.0017.53-0.00-0.02
UMBCAE0.000.030.0036.19-0.00-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.03100.0058.780.000.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0366.6768.980.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0333.3353.79-0.000.00
MichiganB100.000.03100.0064.370.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0366.6771.600.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0350.0045.600.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.000.030.0047.13-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0333.3354.70-0.000.00
NorthwesternB100.000.03100.0042.120.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0074.620.000.01
Penn St.B100.000.0375.0047.170.00-0.00
SamfordSC2.080.0325.0031.88-1.04-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.030.0067.09-0.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.03100.0047.840.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.000.030.0049.23-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.000.0366.6769.640.000.01
High PointBSth0.000.0375.0055.790.000.00
La SalleA100.000.03100.0053.840.000.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0375.0060.410.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.03100.0071.440.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.03100.0056.240.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.0350.0041.630.00-0.00