Idaho

Conference:	WAC
Expected RPI:	195.0
Current RPI:	195
Expected SOS:	130
Current SOS:	130
Current Record:	11-18
Expected Record:	11-18
Current Conf Record:	7-12
Expected Conf Record:	7-12
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-9
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-2
Current OOC Record:	4-6
Expected OOC Record:	4-6
Expected OOC RPI:	168
Expected OOC SOS:	101

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
11-18	195.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Idaho.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Wright St. (129.0)	Horz	H	70-80	L	0%
11-17	Montana (66.0)	BSky	H	63-66	L	0%
11-20	Wisconsin Green Bay (160.0)	Horz	H	72-62	W	100%
11-23	New Mexico (2.0)	MWC	A	73-58	L	0%
11-28	Washington St. (196.0)	P12	A	64-55	L	0%
12-1	UC Davis (234.0)	BW	H	73-66	W	100%
12-6	Eastern Washington (321.0)	BSky	A	79-81	W	100%
12-8	Texas El Paso (95.0)	CUSA	A	64-60	L	0%
12-20	Boise St. (45.0)	MWC	N	78-68	L	0%
12-29	Seattle (303.0)	WAC	A	64-71	W	100%
1-3	San Jose St. (261.0)	WAC	A	55-64	W	100%
1-5	Utah St. (108.0)	WAC	A	82-75	L	0%
1-10	Denver (64.0)	WAC	H	49-55	L	0%
1-12	New Mexico St. (55.0)	WAC	H	70-71	L	0%
1-17	Louisiana Tech (53.0)	WAC	A	72-66	L	0%
1-19	Texas Arlington (119.0)	WAC	A	64-77	W	100%
1-24	Texas St. (272.0)	WAC	H	73-78	L	0%
1-26	Texas San Antonio (260.0)	WAC	H	74-70	W	100%
1-31	Utah St. (108.0)	WAC	H	67-77	L	0%
2-2	San Jose St. (261.0)	WAC	H	66-63	W	100%
2-7	New Mexico St. (55.0)	WAC	A	76-74	L	0%
2-9	Denver (64.0)	WAC	A	74-58	L	0%
2-14	Texas Arlington (119.0)	WAC	H	68-71	L	0%
2-16	Louisiana Tech (53.0)	WAC	H	61-67	L	0%
2-23	Idaho St. (337.0)	BSky	A	69-75	W	100%
2-28	Texas San Antonio (260.0)	WAC	A	74-56	L	0%
3-2	Texas St. (272.0)	WAC	A	81-90	W	100%
3-9	Seattle (303.0)	WAC	H	76-72	W	100%
3-14	New Mexico St. (55.0)	WAC	N	65-49	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Idaho's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Idaho's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Idaho.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Idaho	WAC	26.42	26.42	38.78	38.78	-5.93	-5.93
New Mexico St.	WAC	6.29	6.29	66.67	66.67	2.10	2.10
Texas Arlington	WAC	4.62	4.62	60.00	60.00	0.92	0.92
Texas St.	WAC	4.60	4.60	32.26	32.26	-1.63	-1.63
Texas San Antonio	WAC	4.51	4.51	30.00	30.00	-1.80	-1.80
Utah St.	WAC	4.50	4.50	64.29	64.29	1.29	1.29
Seattle	WAC	4.50	4.50	25.93	25.93	-2.17	-2.17
Louisiana Tech	WAC	4.45	4.45	79.31	79.31	2.61	2.61
Denver	WAC	4.45	4.45	67.86	67.86	1.59	1.59
San Jose St.	WAC	4.41	4.41	30.77	30.77	-1.70	-1.70
Eastern Washington	BSky	1.96	1.96	33.33	33.33	-0.65	-0.65
Idaho St.	BSky	1.95	1.95	17.86	17.86	-1.25	-1.25
New Mexico	MWC	1.94	1.94	84.85	84.85	1.35	1.35
Boise St.	MWC	1.89	1.89	64.29	64.29	0.54	0.54
Texas El Paso	CUSA	1.88	1.88	54.84	54.84	0.18	0.18
UC Davis	BW	1.87	1.87	46.67	46.67	-0.12	-0.12
Montana	BSky	1.84	1.84	78.57	78.57	1.05	1.05
Wright St.	Horz	1.81	1.81	61.29	61.29	0.41	0.41
Washington St.	P12	1.78	1.78	38.71	38.71	-0.40	-0.40
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	1.78	1.78	54.84	54.84	0.17	0.17
Weber St.	BSky	0.32	0.32	80.00	80.00	0.19	0.19
Montana St.	BSky	0.30	0.30	39.29	39.29	-0.06	-0.06
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.26	0.26	44.44	44.44	-0.03	-0.03
Southern Utah	BSky	0.26	0.26	31.03	31.03	-0.10	-0.10
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.25	0.25	71.88	71.88	0.11	0.11
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.23	0.23	37.93	37.93	-0.06	-0.06
Colorado St.	MWC	0.22	0.22	74.19	74.19	0.11	0.11
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.22	0.22	38.46	38.46	-0.05	-0.05
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.20	0.20	34.38	34.38	-0.06	-0.06
Wyoming	MWC	0.19	0.19	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
Valparaiso	Horz	0.19	0.19	78.12	78.12	0.11	0.11
North Dakota	BSky	0.17	0.17	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.17	0.17	23.08	23.08	-0.09	-0.09
Stanford	P12	0.17	0.17	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.17	0.17	17.86	17.86	-0.11	-0.11
Utah	P12	0.17	0.17	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
San Diego St.	MWC	0.17	0.17	66.67	66.67	0.06	0.06
Nevada	MWC	0.16	0.16	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
Oregon	P12	0.16	0.16	76.47	76.47	0.09	0.09
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.16	0.16	72.73	72.73	0.07	0.07
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.16	0.16	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.16	0.16	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
New Orleans	ind	0.15	0.15	18.18	18.18	-0.10	-0.10
Santa Clara	WCC	0.15	0.15	63.33	63.33	0.04	0.04
Houston	CUSA	0.14	0.14	60.00	60.00	0.03	0.03
Brigham Young	WCC	0.14	0.14	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Washington	P12	0.14	0.14	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.14	0.14	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.14	0.14	30.00	30.00	-0.06	-0.06
Fresno St.	MWC	0.14	0.14	32.14	32.14	-0.05	-0.05
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.14	0.14	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.13	0.13	60.00	60.00	0.03	0.03
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.13	0.13	20.00	20.00	-0.08	-0.08
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.13	0.13	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.13	0.13	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Oregon St.	P12	0.13	0.13	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.11	0.11	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.11	0.11	35.71	35.71	-0.03	-0.03
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.11	0.11	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Air Force	MWC	0.11	0.11	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.11	0.11	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.11	0.11	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.11	0.11	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
UC Riverside	BW	0.11	0.11	14.29	14.29	-0.08	-0.08
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.11	0.11	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Kansas	B12	0.09	0.09	85.29	85.29	0.06	0.06
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.09	0.09	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.09	0.09	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
St. Mary's	WCC	0.09	0.09	81.25	81.25	0.05	0.05
California	P12	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Cal Poly	BW	0.08	0.08	55.17	55.17	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.08	0.08	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Texas A&M	SEC	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Portland	WCC	0.08	0.08	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.08	0.08	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Arizona	P12	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.08	0.08	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Southern California	P12	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.08	0.08	84.38	84.38	0.05	0.05
Missouri St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Niagara	MAAC	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.08	0.08	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.06	0.06	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.06	0.06	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Illinois St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Hawaii	BW	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Long Beach St.	BW	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.06	0.06	14.81	14.81	-0.04	-0.04
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	70.37	70.37	0.02	0.02
Pacific	BW	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Troy	SB	0.06	0.06	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
Davidson	SC	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Holy Cross	Pat	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
North Texas	SB	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.04	-0.04
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.05	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Samford	SC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.05	73.53	73.53	0.03	0.03
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.05	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
San Francisco	WCC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.03	0.03	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
East Carolina	CUSA	0.03	0.03	53.85	53.85	0.00	0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.03	0.03	93.75	93.75	0.02	0.02
Hofstra	CAA	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02