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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Idaho

Conference:WAC
Expected RPI:238.0
Current RPI:238
Expected SOS:251
Current SOS:251
Current Record:15-18
Expected Record:15-18
Current Conf Record:9-10
Expected Conf Record:9-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-8
Current OOC Record:6-8
Expected OOC Record:6-8
Expected OOC RPI:228
Expected OOC SOS:265



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-18238.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Idaho.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Western Illinois (290.0)SumH67-63W100%0.0
11-13Oklahoma (26.0)B12A85-65L0%0.0
11-21Portland (178.0)WCCA88-74L0%0.0
11-22North Texas (195.0)CUSAN87-76W100%0.0
11-23Columbia (130.0)IvyN60-65L0%0.0
11-27Boise St. (82.0)MWCN98-89L0%0.0
11-30UC Davis (326.0)BWA76-80W100%0.0
12-7Washington St. (224.0)P12H66-67L0%0.0
12-11Montana (183.0)BSkyA69-58L0%0.0
12-14Portland St. (252.0)BSkyA75-76W100%0.0
12-20Idaho St. (287.0)BSkyN69-65W100%0.0
12-22Cal St. Northridge (253.0)BWA79-69L0%0.0
12-28Montana (183.0)BSkyH71-72L0%0.0
1-2UMKC (248.0)WACH74-80L0%0.0
1-4Chicago St. (259.0)WACH55-57L0%0.0
1-9Texas Pan American (312.0)WACA85-86W100%0.0
1-11New Mexico St. (72.0)WACA78-54L0%0.0
1-16Utah Valley (144.0)WACH66-71L0%0.0
1-18Cal St. Bakersfield (279.0)WACH64-61W100%0.0
1-23Grand Canyon (203.0)WACA86-73L0%0.0
2-1Seattle (267.0)WACH67-68L0%0.0
2-6New Mexico St. (72.0)WACH73-67W100%0.0
2-8Texas Pan American (312.0)WACH70-63W100%0.0
2-13Cal St. Bakersfield (279.0)WACA76-67L0%0.0
2-15Utah Valley (144.0)WACA89-88L0%0.0
2-18Cal St. Northridge (253.0)BWH96-88W100%0.0
2-22Grand Canyon (203.0)WACH83-77W100%0.0
3-1Seattle (267.0)WACA76-68L0%0.0
3-6Chicago St. (259.0)WACA76-79W100%0.0
3-8UMKC (248.0)WACN80-87W100%0.0
3-13UMKC (248.0)WACN70-73W100%0.0
3-14Utah Valley (144.0)WACN69-74W100%0.0
3-15New Mexico St. (72.0)WACN77-55L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Idaho's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Idaho's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Idaho.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
IdahoWAC26.6526.6545.8145.81-2.24-2.24
New Mexico St.WAC5.485.4874.1974.192.652.65
Utah ValleyWAC5.415.4161.5461.541.251.25
UMKCWAC5.365.3634.6234.62-1.65-1.65
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC4.104.1037.9337.93-0.99-0.99
SeattleWAC4.054.0534.6234.62-1.25-1.25
Texas Pan AmericanWAC3.983.9827.5927.59-1.78-1.78
Chicago St.WAC3.953.9535.7135.71-1.13-1.13
Grand CanyonWAC3.883.8845.8345.83-0.32-0.32
MontanaBSky3.163.1650.0050.000.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW3.143.1445.1645.16-0.30-0.30
Portland St.BSky1.811.8153.5753.570.130.13
Idaho St.BSky1.771.7734.6234.62-0.55-0.55
UC DavisBW1.711.7125.0025.00-0.86-0.86
PortlandWCC1.621.6246.6746.67-0.11-0.11
Boise St.MWC1.601.6058.0658.060.260.26
North TexasCUSA1.591.5946.4346.43-0.11-0.11
ColumbiaIvy1.571.5758.6258.620.270.27
Washington St.P121.561.5627.5927.59-0.70-0.70
OklahomaB121.541.5470.9770.970.650.65
Western IllinoisSum1.521.5226.9226.92-0.70-0.70
HawaiiBW0.330.3362.0762.070.080.08
Montana St.BSky0.330.3341.3841.38-0.06-0.06
Northern ArizonaBSky0.320.3245.1645.16-0.03-0.03
Weber St.BSky0.290.2960.7160.710.060.06
Sacramento St.BSky0.290.2942.8642.86-0.04-0.04
Southern UtahBSky0.290.293.573.57-0.27-0.27
Northern ColoradoBSky0.280.2855.1755.170.030.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.270.2744.8344.83-0.03-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.260.2681.8281.820.170.17
Cal St. FullertonBW0.250.2535.4835.48-0.07-0.07
North DakotaBSky0.240.2448.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.240.2448.1548.15-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.230.2367.8667.860.080.08
UC RiversideBW0.220.2227.5927.59-0.10-0.10
South Dakota St.Sum0.220.2257.1457.140.030.03
UTEPCUSA0.210.2167.7467.740.080.08
Tennessee TechOVC0.210.2148.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.190.1936.6736.67-0.05-0.05
Long Beach St.BW0.190.1943.3343.33-0.03-0.03
WashingtonP120.190.1953.1253.120.010.01
UtahP120.190.1963.3363.330.050.05
South DakotaSum0.180.1833.3333.33-0.06-0.06
UTSACUSA0.170.1722.2222.22-0.10-0.10
Utah St.MWC0.150.1554.8454.840.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.150.1546.6746.67-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.150.1531.0331.03-0.06-0.06
Iowa St.B120.150.1578.7978.790.090.09
NevadaMWC0.150.1546.8846.88-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.140.1465.6265.620.050.05
Fresno St.MWC0.140.1448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.140.1481.8281.820.090.09
IUPUISum0.130.1310.3410.34-0.11-0.11
North Dakota St.Sum0.130.1378.5778.570.080.08
TulsaCUSA0.130.1363.6463.640.040.04
LamarSlnd0.130.1310.7110.71-0.10-0.10
Loyola MarymountWCC0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.130.1363.3363.330.030.03
CreightonBE0.130.1378.7978.790.070.07
OregonP120.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
Oklahoma St.B120.130.1363.6463.640.030.03
BradleyMVC0.120.1237.5037.50-0.03-0.03
TCUB120.120.1224.1424.14-0.06-0.06
USCP120.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.120.1253.5753.570.010.01
DrakeMVC0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
StanfordP120.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
Texas A&MSEC0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.100.1017.2417.24-0.06-0.06
Santa ClaraWCC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.090.0988.2488.240.070.07
Colorado St.MWC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.080.0870.9770.970.040.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
LouisvilleAmer0.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
Miami OHMAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
Wright St.Horz0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Oregon St.P120.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.070.0770.3770.370.030.03
Air ForceMWC0.070.0735.7135.71-0.02-0.02
UNLVMWC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Michigan St.B100.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0793.1093.100.060.06
BaylorB120.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0716.6716.67-0.04-0.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0730.3030.30-0.03-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0713.7913.79-0.05-0.05
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
DenverSum0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0530.7730.77-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Arizona St.P120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
TulaneCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
BrownIvy0.050.0551.8551.850.000.00
CaliforniaP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
ColoradoP120.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
CornellIvy0.050.053.703.70-0.05-0.05
DartmouthIvy0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
HarvardIvy0.050.0586.2186.210.040.04
IllinoisB100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
IndianaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
PennIvy0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.050.0551.8551.850.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
DuquesneA100.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
SMUAmer0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
KansasB120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Kansas St.B120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
TexasB120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Texas TechB120.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
WyomingMWC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
TroySB0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0324.0024.00-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
East CarolinaCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
UABCUSA0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
AmericanPat0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
ArmyPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
ButlerBE0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
ElonSC0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
St. John'sBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
UCLAP120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
George MasonA100.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
MercerASun0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0241.1841.18-0.00-0.00