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Through games of Feb 10, 2016.


Idaho

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:219.4
Current RPI:221
Expected SOS:314
Current SOS:332
Current Record:12-10
Expected Record:16-13
Current Conf Record:6-5
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-8
Current OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:153
Expected OOC SOS:195



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-10172.71.17%
18-11187.38.91%
17-12202.422.29%
16-13217.830.88%
15-14233.824.07%
14-15250.010.53%
13-16264.71.96%
12-17279.10.18%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Idaho.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14San Jose St. (293.9)MWCA54-74W100%0.0
11-17Cal St. Bakersfield (142.3)WACA68-45L0%0.0
11-23North Texas (296.5)CUSAA63-65W100%0.0
11-24Troy (291.4)SBN69-63W100%0.0
11-25Samford (248.8)SCN75-58L0%0.0
11-28Northern Illinois (140.6)MACH59-66L0%0.0
12-2Cal St. Bakersfield (142.3)WACH67-63W100%0.0
12-5Arkansas Little Rock (49.3)SBH54-64L0%0.0
12-7USC (21.0)P12A74-55L0%0.0
12-10Washington St. (184.5)P12H78-74W100%0.0
12-22UC Davis (255.2)BWA51-68W100%0.0
12-31North Dakota (210.8)BSkyA71-74W100%0.0
1-2Northern Colorado (308.9)BSkyA70-75W100%0.0
1-9Eastern Washington (207.4)BSkyA74-60L0%0.0
1-14Northern Arizona (322.2)BSkyH83-76W100%0.0
1-16Southern Utah (334.5)BSkyH83-85L0%0.0
1-21Montana (146.2)BSkyA58-63W100%0.0
1-23Montana St. (255.2)BSkyA70-68L0%0.0
1-28Sacramento St. (250.4)BSkyH63-65L0%0.0
1-30Portland St. (281.6)BSkyH56-55W100%0.0
2-4Southern Utah (334.5)BSkyA44-68W100%0.0
2-6Northern Arizona (322.2)BSkyA72-70L0%0.0
2-11Northern Colorado (308.9)BSkyH0-084%10.8
2-13North Dakota (210.8)BSkyH0-057%1.8
2-18Portland St. (281.6)BSkyA0-045%-1.3
2-20Sacramento St. (250.4)BSkyA0-043%-2.0
2-27Eastern Washington (207.4)BSkyH0-056%1.7
3-3Weber St. (139.6)BSkyH0-037%-3.7
3-5Idaho St. (271.4)BSkyH0-073%6.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Idaho's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Idaho's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Idaho.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
IdahoBSky26.5526.4257.8955.614.192.96
Eastern WashingtonBSky3.074.3450.0052.700.000.23
Northern ArizonaBSky5.214.335.5610.20-4.63-3.45
Portland St.BSky2.834.3033.3338.54-0.94-0.99
Sacramento St.BSky2.784.2738.8943.03-0.62-0.59
Northern ColoradoBSky2.734.2130.0028.45-1.09-1.81
Southern UtahBSky4.994.2011.1112.55-3.88-3.15
North DakotaBSky2.724.2050.0052.250.000.19
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC4.723.5868.4269.191.741.37
Montana St.BSky3.082.7438.1041.74-0.73-0.45
Idaho St.BSky0.632.7145.0046.81-0.06-0.17
MontanaBSky3.012.7161.1164.820.670.80
Weber St.BSky0.572.6865.0069.450.171.04
Washington St.P122.541.9438.1033.12-0.61-0.65
UC DavisBW2.391.8542.1138.12-0.38-0.44
Arkansas Little RockSB2.491.8590.0086.442.001.35
TroySB2.481.8425.0027.67-1.24-0.82
San Jose St.MWC2.441.8225.0023.70-1.22-0.96
North TexasCUSA2.371.7835.0034.25-0.71-0.56
SamfordSC2.381.7839.1340.56-0.52-0.34
USCP122.381.7877.2772.161.300.79
Northern IllinoisMAC2.271.7257.8956.010.360.21
SeattleWAC0.390.3847.6245.00-0.02-0.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.330.3233.3334.95-0.11-0.10
Arizona St.P120.320.2554.1751.670.030.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.170.2314.2915.45-0.12-0.16
South DakotaSum0.280.2241.6741.24-0.05-0.04
PortlandWCC0.180.2240.0038.51-0.04-0.05
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.220.2231.8230.15-0.08-0.09
Grand CanyonWAC0.170.2082.6181.130.110.12
Boise St.MWC0.280.1960.8760.530.060.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.230.1963.6462.150.060.05
UC RiversideBW0.280.1945.8341.65-0.02-0.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.290.1933.3330.60-0.10-0.07
WyomingMWC0.270.1943.4842.47-0.03-0.03
DenverSum0.110.1854.1751.780.010.01
UtahP120.170.1870.8368.500.070.07
ArizonaP120.270.1879.1778.330.160.10
Chicago St.WAC0.270.164.357.72-0.25-0.14
Saint Mary'sWCC0.280.1685.7185.380.200.11
ColoradoP120.110.1569.5765.310.040.05
South AlabamaSB0.210.1533.3334.19-0.07-0.05
Texas St.SB0.160.1536.8437.57-0.04-0.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.160.1568.1871.310.060.06
WashingtonP120.210.1562.5060.110.050.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.110.1365.2268.590.030.05
UMKCWAC0.220.1328.5732.73-0.09-0.05
Fresno St.MWC0.220.1363.6461.640.060.03
GonzagaWCC0.230.1378.2676.880.130.07
Northern IowaMVC0.170.1356.0055.420.020.01
NevadaMWC0.110.1357.1455.290.020.01
Colorado St.MWC0.160.1354.5552.540.010.01
PacificWCC0.110.1325.0028.89-0.06-0.05
Utah St.MWC0.050.1347.6249.26-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.110.1243.4843.76-0.01-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.160.1258.3360.690.030.03
StanfordP120.060.1250.0046.530.00-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.160.1240.0042.85-0.03-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.100.1228.5731.30-0.04-0.05
Appalachian St.SB0.110.1226.0929.18-0.05-0.05
Arkansas St.SB0.160.1242.8639.23-0.02-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.110.1240.0038.97-0.02-0.03
Georgia St.SB0.110.1257.8956.090.020.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.110.1257.8961.760.020.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.110.1242.8646.35-0.02-0.01
UCLAP120.200.1256.5253.270.030.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.1050.0045.820.00-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.170.1043.4837.81-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.170.1060.8762.080.040.02
UNLVMWC0.170.1052.1755.090.010.01
KansasB120.110.0982.6179.190.070.06
San FranciscoWCC0.110.0954.5550.110.010.00
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0947.6249.35-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.110.0984.2181.660.070.06
San Diego St.MWC0.110.0969.5770.070.040.04
TulsaAmer0.170.0966.6764.730.060.03
UTSACUSA0.170.0913.6413.63-0.12-0.07
Cal PolyBW0.110.0930.0034.55-0.04-0.03
San DiegoWCC0.160.0931.8229.13-0.06-0.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.110.0917.3920.66-0.07-0.05
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0942.8650.41-0.010.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.100.0924.0024.17-0.05-0.05
Nebraska OmahaSum0.110.0958.3358.480.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.110.0931.5832.01-0.04-0.03
OregonP120.050.0982.6179.250.030.05
Oregon St.P120.050.0961.9056.450.010.01
BradleyMVC0.060.0712.0011.96-0.05-0.05
DartmouthIvy0.110.0731.5831.74-0.04-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0747.6252.03-0.000.00
Kansas St.B120.060.0758.3356.290.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.110.0719.0525.90-0.07-0.03
WisconsinB100.060.0762.5056.960.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0730.4332.35-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.060.0682.6181.130.040.04
Ball St.MAC0.000.0660.8757.160.000.01
ButlerBE0.110.0670.8368.990.050.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.110.0652.0050.230.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0640.0043.42-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.110.0659.0961.310.020.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0652.9452.060.000.00
IUPUISum0.110.0640.0039.76-0.02-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0645.4551.39-0.010.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.110.0643.4850.66-0.010.00
OhioMAC0.110.0663.6461.480.030.01
UC IrvineBW0.060.0672.7371.660.030.03
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0631.8232.69-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.110.0656.5257.000.010.01
FIUCUSA0.060.0640.9145.29-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.050.0661.9058.060.010.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0672.7367.630.020.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0673.9174.700.000.03
UMBCAE0.050.0624.0026.33-0.03-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.110.0625.0030.04-0.05-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0634.7840.89-0.00-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0686.9686.650.030.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0659.0959.370.010.01
FurmanSC0.090.0654.1754.080.010.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0671.4368.750.020.02
MercerSC0.090.0669.5769.040.040.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0656.5262.820.000.02
RiceCUSA0.110.0628.5729.66-0.05-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.110.0673.0872.640.050.03
The CitadelSC0.090.0631.8230.05-0.03-0.02
UABCUSA0.110.0682.6179.390.070.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0627.2731.06-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.110.0652.1751.940.000.00
VMISC0.050.0615.0016.73-0.03-0.04
WoffordSC0.090.0643.4846.22-0.01-0.00
CaliforniaP120.000.0665.2262.830.000.01
MonmouthMAAC0.100.0680.0081.160.060.03
PepperdineWCC0.060.0356.5257.280.010.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.035.007.22-0.05-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.060.0365.2260.580.020.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0364.0057.920.020.01
Miami OHMAC0.060.0334.7833.05-0.02-0.01
MissouriSEC0.060.0333.3330.27-0.02-0.01
Ohio St.B100.060.0360.0055.540.010.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0330.4331.21-0.02-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.060.0356.5257.020.010.00
BYUWCC0.000.0366.6769.490.000.01
DrakeMVC0.000.0320.8323.19-0.00-0.02
LamarSlnd0.000.0330.0029.28-0.00-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0345.4549.69-0.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.050.0364.0062.040.020.01
DePaulBE0.050.0333.3334.01-0.02-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0341.6739.46-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0325.0025.09-0.02-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0322.7327.18-0.00-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0321.7423.40-0.03-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.050.0379.1776.070.030.02
MarshallCUSA0.050.0350.0051.190.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0371.4369.430.020.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0362.5058.920.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0320.0022.26-0.03-0.02
NebraskaB100.050.0352.0050.780.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0318.1821.12-0.03-0.02
OklahomaB120.050.0386.9682.580.040.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0345.0049.23-0.01-0.00
Seton HallBE0.050.0370.8368.100.020.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0320.0019.76-0.03-0.02
SyracuseACC0.050.0366.6762.560.020.01
TexasB120.050.0366.6762.210.020.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0345.4554.16-0.000.00
Texas TechB120.050.0360.8755.300.010.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0345.4546.21-0.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.050.0320.8321.68-0.03-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0373.9176.740.020.01
XavierBE0.050.0387.5081.860.040.02
YaleIvy0.050.0373.6874.680.020.01