live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Nov 22, 2014.


Idaho

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:247.7
Current RPI:254
Expected SOS:316
Current SOS:279
Current Record:1-1
Expected Record:13-14
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-8
Current OOC Record:1-1
Expected OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC RPI:236
Expected OOC SOS:322



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-697.00.03%
20-797.30.09%
19-8120.40.54%
18-9143.11.31%
17-10162.23.33%
16-11180.86.36%
15-12200.59.98%
14-13222.614.61%
13-14244.217.05%
12-15264.616.31%
11-16284.013.63%
10-17300.28.18%
9-18315.15.28%
8-19326.22.21%
7-20336.70.74%
6-21342.30.27%
5-22345.70.06%
4-23349.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Idaho.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17South Dakota St. (172.6)SumH82-77W100%0.0
11-20Northern Illinois (211.6)MACA78-67L0%0.0
11-25Boise St. (78.3)MWCA0-011%-14.6
11-29Northern Kentucky (256.4)ASunH0-067%5.4
12-3Washington St. (221.7)P12A0-032%-5.6
12-6UC Davis (266.6)BWH0-065%4.7
12-11Western Illinois (286.8)SumA0-044%-1.9
12-13South Dakota St. (172.6)SumA0-025%-8.0
12-22Northern Kentucky (256.4)ASunA0-044%-1.8
1-1Idaho St. (319.4)BSkyH0-077%8.9
1-3Weber St. (218.1)BSkyH0-052%0.7
1-10Eastern Washington (92.0)BSkyH0-032%-5.7
1-15Sacramento St. (231.1)BSkyA0-039%-3.2
1-17Portland St. (218.0)BSkyA0-035%-4.6
1-22North Dakota (233.3)BSkyH0-060%2.9
1-24Northern Colorado (218.8)BSkyH0-054%1.3
1-31Eastern Washington (92.0)BSkyA0-014%-12.9
2-5Montana St. (308.0)BSkyA0-058%2.3
2-7Montana (208.9)BSkyA0-030%-6.2
2-12Portland St. (218.0)BSkyH0-059%2.6
2-14Sacramento St. (231.1)BSkyH0-063%3.9
2-19Northern Arizona (185.2)BSkyA0-028%-7.1
2-21Southern Utah (336.3)BSkyA0-066%4.9
2-26Montana (208.9)BSkyH0-053%1.0
2-28Montana St. (308.0)BSkyH0-078%9.4
3-5Weber St. (218.1)BSkyA0-029%-6.5
3-7Idaho St. (319.4)BSkyA0-056%1.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Idaho's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Idaho's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Idaho.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
IdahoBSky41.6726.5350.0049.250.00-0.40
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.004.7366.6767.550.001.66
Idaho St.BSky0.004.680.0027.94-0.00-2.07
MontanaBSky0.004.610.0047.18-0.00-0.26
Montana St.BSky0.004.590.0022.88-0.00-2.49
Weber St.BSky0.004.570.0047.30-0.00-0.25
Sacramento St.BSky0.004.5250.0046.040.00-0.36
Portland St.BSky0.004.51100.0050.190.000.02
South Dakota St.Sum25.003.8850.0050.250.000.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.003.7733.3340.72-0.00-0.70
North DakotaBSky4.172.870.0044.14-4.17-0.34
Southern UtahBSky0.002.840.0018.59-0.00-1.78
Northern ColoradoBSky0.002.830.0053.38-0.000.19
Northern ArizonaBSky0.002.8133.3354.07-0.000.23
Western IllinoisSum0.001.9833.3331.81-0.00-0.72
Boise St.MWC0.001.9575.0062.090.000.47
Washington St.P120.001.9533.3326.08-0.00-0.93
UC DavisBW0.001.92100.0042.950.00-0.27
Northern IllinoisMAC25.001.850.0043.99-25.00-0.22
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.5466.6749.370.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.3750.0044.810.00-0.04
South DakotaSum0.000.340.0042.57-0.00-0.05
Utah St.MWC0.000.3075.0057.480.000.05
Oral RobertsSum0.000.2833.3349.42-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.2766.6746.620.00-0.02
DenverSum0.000.2750.0061.440.000.06
UC RiversideBW0.000.240.0028.19-0.00-0.11
SeattleWAC0.000.2433.3349.04-0.00-0.00
IPFWSum0.000.2150.0063.720.000.06
IUPUISum0.000.2150.0031.810.00-0.08
San FranciscoWCC0.000.21100.0062.040.000.05
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.2050.0044.170.00-0.02
PortlandWCC0.000.20100.0051.660.000.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.200.0031.63-0.00-0.07
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.20100.0072.860.000.09
CaliforniaP120.000.2075.0069.830.000.08
WyomingMWC0.000.20100.0070.850.000.08
StetsonASun0.000.170.0032.07-0.00-0.06
Colorado St.MWC0.000.17100.0062.400.000.04
ToledoMAC0.000.1733.3364.19-0.000.05
UtahP120.000.1766.6769.700.000.07
OregonP120.000.14100.0071.440.000.06
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.1433.3335.92-0.00-0.04
JacksonvilleASun0.000.140.0025.03-0.00-0.07
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.1420.0026.89-0.00-0.06
LipscombASun0.000.140.0042.80-0.00-0.02
North FloridaASun0.000.140.0047.13-0.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.1450.0063.070.000.04
USC UpstateASun0.000.14100.0051.050.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.1475.0057.060.000.02
San Jose St.MWC0.000.130.0017.53-0.00-0.09
New MexicoMWC0.000.1375.0059.530.000.03
WashingtonP120.000.13100.0057.540.000.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1350.0049.760.00-0.00
USCP120.000.1050.0027.780.00-0.05
PacificWCC0.000.1050.0029.910.00-0.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.100.0028.76-0.00-0.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.100.0033.25-0.00-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.000.10100.0087.190.000.08
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.100.0055.87-0.000.01
WisconsinB100.000.10100.0084.890.000.07
Air ForceMWC0.000.1050.0045.890.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.000.1066.6760.720.000.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.1066.6734.100.00-0.03
UNLVMWC0.000.1075.0053.210.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.1050.0037.430.00-0.02
BuffaloMAC4.170.1066.6760.611.390.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.10100.0072.420.000.04
Fresno St.MWC0.000.100.0033.08-0.00-0.03
UCLAP120.000.10100.0062.510.000.02
BYUWCC0.000.07100.0070.030.000.03
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0750.0052.920.000.00
LSUSEC0.000.0775.0060.550.000.02
OklahomaB120.000.0750.0058.120.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.070.0033.98-0.00-0.02
AkronMAC0.000.0766.6763.730.000.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.070.0063.44-0.000.02
Cal PolyBW0.000.0750.0037.760.00-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.000.070.0046.61-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.000.0750.0053.040.000.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0775.0054.790.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0733.3353.79-0.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.070.0033.14-0.00-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0725.0059.16-0.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0766.6752.320.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.070.0024.17-0.00-0.04
NorthwesternB100.000.07100.0042.120.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0750.0033.700.00-0.02
West VirginiaB120.000.07100.0067.570.000.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0725.0035.61-0.00-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.070.0036.36-0.00-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.07100.0061.500.000.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.07100.0046.020.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.07100.0049.250.00-0.00
IndianaB100.000.07100.0062.040.000.02
Oregon St.P120.000.07100.0049.460.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.07100.0065.140.000.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0766.6767.990.000.02
San Diego St.MWC0.000.07100.0080.630.000.04
SMUAmer0.000.0750.0068.880.000.02
StanfordP120.000.0775.0071.090.000.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.070.0037.22-0.00-0.02
UMKCWAC0.000.0733.3355.40-0.000.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.07100.0054.710.000.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0625.0051.56-0.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0633.3327.10-0.00-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.06100.0071.830.000.03
KentuckySEC0.000.06100.0085.630.000.05
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0433.3346.93-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0425.0035.65-0.00-0.01
MemphisAmer0.000.040.0066.25-0.000.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.040.0034.07-0.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0466.6744.970.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0325.0033.97-0.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.03100.0064.090.000.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0018.27-0.00-0.02
FurmanSC0.000.0333.3325.18-0.00-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.030.0031.61-0.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0366.6754.240.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.030.0038.59-0.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0325.0066.02-0.000.01
ArizonaP120.000.03100.0069.320.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.03100.0056.330.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0035.64-0.00-0.01
DePaulBE0.000.03100.0037.850.00-0.01
DrakeMVC0.000.030.0025.08-0.00-0.02
HoustonAmer0.000.03100.0065.060.000.01
IowaB100.000.0350.0065.570.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.03100.0070.980.000.01
MaineAE0.000.030.0018.23-0.00-0.02
MarquetteBE0.000.0333.3340.91-0.00-0.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0366.6761.350.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0018.48-0.00-0.02
NevadaMWC0.000.0333.3346.76-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.03100.0059.190.000.01
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0074.620.000.02
OhioMAC0.000.0350.0056.270.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.0366.6748.330.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0350.0044.850.00-0.00
TCUB120.000.03100.0054.550.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.03100.0030.790.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.03100.0069.180.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0350.0045.600.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.000.0366.6755.980.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0333.3345.85-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0038.72-0.00-0.01
XavierBE0.000.03100.0077.070.000.02