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Through games of Dec 6, 2016.


Idaho

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:230.0
Current RPI:194
Expected SOS:321
Current SOS:218
Current Record:3-3
Expected Record:14-13
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-8
Current OOC Record:3-3
Expected OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC RPI:207
Expected OOC SOS:246



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-6108.70.12%
20-7122.40.55%
19-8137.81.64%
18-9156.54.05%
17-10175.59.05%
16-11195.913.95%
15-12217.317.73%
14-13238.218.48%
13-14259.015.44%
12-15277.810.24%
11-16294.95.27%
10-17308.12.41%
9-18320.10.74%
8-19328.30.26%
7-20335.80.05%
6-21346.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Idaho.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Northern Illinois (208.8)MACA63-49L0%0.0
11-18Little Rock (152.6)SBA57-65W100%0.0
11-21South Dakota St. (236.7)SumH96-89W100%0.0
11-25Sam Houston St. (166.2)SlndA69-62L0%0.0
11-29San Jose St. (192.3)MWCH49-58L0%0.0
12-3UC Davis (256.1)BWH68-66W100%0.0
12-7Washington St. (227.6)P12A0-037%-4.0
12-10South Dakota St. (236.7)SumA0-037%-4.1
12-22Stanford (52.1)P12A0-08%-16.5
12-30Eastern Washington (201.0)BSkyH0-062%3.8
1-5Montana (241.5)BSkyH0-057%2.2
1-7Montana St. (212.6)BSkyH0-055%1.5
1-12Weber St. (209.7)BSkyA0-032%-5.5
1-14Idaho St. (282.3)BSkyA0-054%1.1
1-19Southern Utah (327.0)BSkyH0-081%10.7
1-21Northern Arizona (342.0)BSkyH0-089%14.5
1-26Montana St. (212.6)BSkyA0-035%-4.8
1-28Montana (241.5)BSkyA0-037%-4.1
2-2Portland St. (282.9)BSkyH0-071%6.5
2-4Sacramento St. (336.4)BSkyH0-085%12.5
2-9Northern Colorado (281.3)BSkyA0-052%0.6
2-11North Dakota (229.5)BSkyA0-036%-4.3
2-17Eastern Washington (201.0)BSkyA0-042%-2.5
2-23Idaho St. (282.3)BSkyH0-073%7.4
2-25Weber St. (209.7)BSkyH0-052%0.7
3-2Northern Arizona (342.0)BSkyA0-075%8.2
3-3Southern Utah (327.0)BSkyA0-065%4.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Idaho's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Idaho's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Idaho.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
IdahoBSky28.7226.3950.0056.000.003.17
MontanaBSky0.004.6325.0048.39-0.00-0.15
Weber St.BSky0.524.6116.6749.15-0.35-0.08
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.004.6171.4356.250.000.58
Montana St.BSky0.004.5842.8656.57-0.000.60
Northern ArizonaBSky0.524.5611.1120.44-0.41-2.70
Idaho St.BSky0.004.5512.5029.26-0.00-1.89
Southern UtahBSky0.004.530.0025.18-0.00-2.25
South Dakota St.Sum8.333.7028.5740.80-3.57-0.68
Sacramento St.BSky0.522.820.0022.59-0.52-1.55
Northern ColoradoBSky0.002.7716.6740.02-0.00-0.55
North DakotaBSky0.002.7633.3355.29-0.000.29
Portland St.BSky0.002.7640.0044.46-0.00-0.31
Washington St.P120.692.0842.8627.99-0.10-0.91
UC DavisBW8.332.0257.1447.291.19-0.11
San Jose St.MWC8.332.0140.0038.40-1.67-0.47
StanfordP120.001.9566.6757.430.000.29
Little RockSB8.331.9180.0063.595.000.52
Northern IllinoisMAC8.331.8533.3343.48-2.78-0.24
Sam Houston St.Slnd8.331.8540.0056.34-1.670.23
DenverSum0.690.3642.8645.65-0.10-0.03
South DakotaSum0.000.3550.0046.820.00-0.02
WyomingMWC0.520.2566.6753.730.170.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.2357.1459.020.000.04
ColoradoP120.000.2375.0062.450.000.06
SeattleWAC0.000.2216.6738.83-0.00-0.05
Oral RobertsSum0.000.220.0022.75-0.00-0.12
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.2057.1457.780.000.03
PepperdineWCC0.690.2042.8633.51-0.10-0.06
Santa ClaraWCC1.220.1933.3332.79-0.41-0.07
UNLVMWC0.000.1962.5042.780.00-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.600.1925.0043.29-0.30-0.03
CaliforniaP120.520.1987.5064.760.390.06
IUPUISum0.000.1933.3351.57-0.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1937.5050.92-0.000.00
UC IrvineBW1.040.1944.4453.29-0.120.01
UtahP120.000.1980.0058.220.000.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.520.1937.5037.96-0.13-0.05
Utah St.MWC0.000.1742.8650.57-0.000.00
Arizona St.P120.000.1655.5637.870.00-0.04
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.1628.5733.56-0.00-0.05
ArizonaP120.000.1677.7870.290.000.07
Central MichiganMAC0.690.1675.0058.720.350.03
UC RiversideBW0.000.160.0031.31-0.00-0.06
WashingtonP120.000.1657.1452.140.000.01
OregonP120.000.1675.0072.800.000.07
USCP120.000.16100.0076.400.000.08
Colorado St.MWC0.000.1371.4360.090.000.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.1350.0064.910.000.04
San FranciscoWCC0.000.1385.7153.770.000.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.1350.0056.890.000.02
BYUWCC0.000.1362.5067.080.000.05
LamarSlnd0.000.1342.8640.38-0.00-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.000.1350.0050.170.000.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.1325.0038.98-0.00-0.03
Fort WayneSum0.000.1362.5070.890.000.05
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.1371.4363.080.000.03
Western IllinoisSum0.000.130.0016.33-0.00-0.09
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.1040.0054.81-0.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.1033.3352.03-0.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.1033.3352.49-0.000.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.1057.1448.110.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1025.0045.82-0.00-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.690.1012.5030.51-0.52-0.04
New MexicoMWC0.000.1062.5058.130.000.02
Indiana St.MVC1.190.1042.8650.98-0.170.00
Cal PolyBW0.600.1042.8641.13-0.09-0.02
DrakeMVC0.520.100.0020.21-0.52-0.06
OaklandHorz0.520.1085.7177.000.370.05
Oregon St.P120.000.1025.0023.62-0.00-0.05
UCLAP120.000.10100.0086.650.000.07
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.600.0942.8644.89-0.09-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.520.0985.7169.920.370.04
PortlandWCC0.690.0757.1450.730.100.00
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0757.1443.930.00-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.070.0038.78-0.00-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0725.0042.78-0.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0757.1464.540.000.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.070.0017.92-0.00-0.04
NevadaMWC0.000.0777.7871.770.000.03
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0760.0069.260.000.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0725.0055.44-0.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0725.0040.78-0.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.690.0783.3371.500.460.03
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0740.0041.72-0.00-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.690.07100.0089.590.690.05
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0750.0056.080.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0757.1454.200.000.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0737.5047.57-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0716.6735.90-0.00-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.0737.5028.47-0.00-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0616.6730.09-0.00-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0675.0066.120.000.02
BryantNEC0.000.0622.2246.51-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0612.5037.11-0.00-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.520.0683.3379.920.350.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0650.0050.980.000.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0642.8650.82-0.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.0612.5030.17-0.00-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.000.060.0038.43-0.00-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0616.6729.83-0.00-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0616.6738.87-0.00-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0650.0060.950.000.01
NJITASun0.000.0644.4451.58-0.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0657.1453.860.000.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0675.0066.090.000.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0675.0070.570.000.03
Saint LouisA100.000.0625.0023.99-0.00-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.000.0671.4357.210.000.01
TexasB120.000.0650.0038.730.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.000.0687.5061.660.000.01
TroySB0.000.0642.8636.07-0.00-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.060.0033.71-0.00-0.02
UMKCWAC0.520.0655.5649.660.06-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0685.7175.250.000.03
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0677.7886.650.000.05
WisconsinB100.000.0677.7876.550.000.03
XavierBE0.000.0687.5070.880.000.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0612.5033.31-0.00-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0650.0045.920.00-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0637.5031.15-0.00-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.0620.0035.46-0.00-0.02
MississippiSEC0.000.0675.0047.990.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0675.0050.980.000.00
IowaB100.000.0444.4438.41-0.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0412.5034.49-0.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0462.5052.060.000.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0420.0022.88-0.00-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.0387.5069.040.000.01
BaylorB120.690.03100.0076.070.690.02
BucknellPat0.000.0370.0070.530.000.01
ButlerBE0.000.03100.0074.830.000.02
Georgia TechACC0.690.0357.1436.370.10-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.0357.1444.830.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0342.8637.05-0.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0333.3331.35-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0320.0042.14-0.00-0.01
OklahomaB120.000.0371.4348.030.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.000.0342.8645.98-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0344.4438.15-0.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0342.8650.33-0.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.690.0340.0058.88-0.140.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0357.1449.420.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.690.0325.0027.74-0.35-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0360.0062.420.000.01
AkronMAC0.000.0371.4368.930.000.01
ElonCAA0.600.0362.5054.660.150.00
FIUCUSA0.000.0314.2935.05-0.00-0.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0388.8966.920.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0357.1433.200.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.030.0023.90-0.00-0.02
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0076.540.000.02
FloridaSEC0.000.0377.7872.930.000.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0342.8643.55-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0350.0061.350.000.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0333.3349.39-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.000.0388.8977.470.000.02
Kansas St.B120.000.0388.8956.710.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0371.4358.830.000.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0377.7866.740.000.01
Seton HallBE0.000.0375.0054.480.000.00
SMUAmer0.000.0366.6766.650.000.01
St. BonaventureA100.690.0375.0070.350.350.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0350.0044.180.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.690.0350.0037.700.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0362.5067.590.000.01