Idaho

Conference:	WAC
Expected RPI:	146.0
Current RPI:	146
Expected SOS:	175
Current SOS:	175
Current Record:	16-13
Expected Record:	16-13
Current Conf Record:	9-6
Expected Conf Record:	9-6
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-5
Current OOC Record:	7-7
Expected OOC Record:	7-7
Expected OOC RPI:	195
Expected OOC SOS:	247

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
16-13	146.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Idaho.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-12	Long Beach St. (34.0)	BW	A	69-61	L	0%
11-17	Montana (74.0)	BSky	A	57-52	L	0%
11-26	Montana St. (275.0)	BSky	H	76-67	W	100%
11-30	Eastern Washington (209.0)	BSky	H	66-73	L	0%
12-3	UC Davis (338.0)	BW	A	74-94	W	100%
12-7	Washington St. (175.0)	P12	H	64-66	L	0%
12-9	Oregon St. (135.0)	P12	A	60-74	W	100%
12-11	Seattle (277.0)	ind	A	62-73	W	100%
12-17	Cal St. Bakersfield (213.0)	ind	H	72-44	W	100%
12-20	Wright St. (224.0)	Horz	A	80-78	L	0%
12-22	Wisconsin Green Bay (148.0)	Horz	A	63-61	L	0%
12-31	Boise St. (173.0)	MWC	N	76-73	L	0%
1-5	Nevada (65.0)	WAC	H	55-73	L	0%
1-7	Fresno St. (229.0)	WAC	H	63-59	W	100%
1-12	Louisiana Tech (160.0)	WAC	A	88-90	W	100%
1-14	New Mexico St. (59.0)	WAC	A	80-68	L	0%
1-21	Utah St. (143.0)	WAC	H	57-54	W	100%
1-26	San Jose St. (279.0)	WAC	H	74-66	W	100%
1-28	Hawaii (204.0)	WAC	H	70-76	L	0%
2-2	Fresno St. (229.0)	WAC	A	65-55	L	0%
2-4	Nevada (65.0)	WAC	A	68-72	W	100%
2-7	Seattle (277.0)	ind	H	70-69	W	100%
2-9	New Mexico St. (59.0)	WAC	H	59-58	W	100%
2-11	Louisiana Tech (160.0)	WAC	H	73-64	W	100%
2-18	Portland St. (187.0)	BSky	H	77-68	W	100%
2-24	Utah St. (143.0)	WAC	A	67-50	L	0%
3-1	Hawaii (204.0)	WAC	A	63-82	W	100%
3-3	San Jose St. (279.0)	WAC	A	64-70	W	100%
3-8	Hawaii (204.0)	WAC	N	70-72	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Idaho's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Idaho's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Idaho.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Idaho	WAC	26.42	26.42	56.30	56.30	3.33	3.33
Hawaii	WAC	5.98	5.98	44.44	44.44	-0.66	-0.66
New Mexico St.	WAC	4.44	4.44	74.19	74.19	2.15	2.15
San Jose St.	WAC	4.39	4.39	28.57	28.57	-1.88	-1.88
Utah St.	WAC	4.37	4.37	51.72	51.72	0.15	0.15
Louisiana Tech	WAC	4.37	4.37	53.33	53.33	0.29	0.29
Fresno St.	WAC	4.36	4.36	34.48	34.48	-1.35	-1.35
Nevada	WAC	4.34	4.34	82.14	82.14	2.79	2.79
Seattle	ind	3.82	3.82	40.91	40.91	-0.69	-0.69
Portland St.	BSky	2.19	2.19	51.72	51.72	0.08	0.08
Eastern Washington	BSky	2.15	2.15	41.38	41.38	-0.37	-0.37
Montana	BSky	2.13	2.13	78.57	78.57	1.22	1.22
Montana St.	BSky	2.09	2.09	38.46	38.46	-0.48	-0.48
UC Davis	BW	2.05	2.05	13.79	13.79	-1.49	-1.49
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	2.03	2.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Oregon St.	P12	1.90	1.90	58.06	58.06	0.31	0.31
Long Beach St.	BW	1.87	1.87	73.33	73.33	0.87	0.87
Boise St.	MWC	1.86	1.86	39.29	39.29	-0.40	-0.40
Washington St.	P12	1.83	1.83	44.83	44.83	-0.19	-0.19
Wright St.	Horz	1.79	1.79	36.67	36.67	-0.48	-0.48
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	1.78	1.78	44.44	44.44	-0.20	-0.20
Pacific	BW	0.52	0.52	32.14	32.14	-0.19	-0.19
Weber St.	BSky	0.41	0.41	78.57	78.57	0.23	0.23
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.39	0.39	30.77	30.77	-0.15	-0.15
Idaho St.	BSky	0.35	0.35	27.59	27.59	-0.16	-0.16
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.35	0.35	19.23	19.23	-0.21	-0.21
Cal Poly	BW	0.35	0.35	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.30	0.30	34.48	34.48	-0.09	-0.09
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.30	0.30	11.11	11.11	-0.23	-0.23
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.29	0.29	30.77	30.77	-0.11	-0.11
UC Riverside	BW	0.29	0.29	41.38	41.38	-0.05	-0.05
Washington	P12	0.27	0.27	67.74	67.74	0.09	0.09
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.27	0.27	67.86	67.86	0.10	0.10
Utah Valley	GWC	0.26	0.26	57.14	57.14	0.04	0.04
Pepperdine	WCC	0.25	0.25	32.14	32.14	-0.09	-0.09
Stanford	P12	0.24	0.24	65.62	65.62	0.07	0.07
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.24	0.24	75.00	75.00	0.12	0.12
Arizona St.	P12	0.23	0.23	32.26	32.26	-0.08	-0.08
New Mexico	MWC	0.22	0.22	81.25	81.25	0.14	0.14
Oregon	P12	0.22	0.22	70.97	70.97	0.09	0.09
San Francisco	WCC	0.21	0.21	58.06	58.06	0.03	0.03
Longwood	ind	0.20	0.20	22.22	22.22	-0.11	-0.11
Utah	P12	0.20	0.20	16.67	16.67	-0.13	-0.13
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.20	0.20	64.29	64.29	0.06	0.06
Wyoming	MWC	0.17	0.17	62.07	62.07	0.04	0.04
Colorado	P12	0.17	0.17	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Arizona	P12	0.16	0.16	67.65	67.65	0.06	0.06
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.16	0.16	74.19	74.19	0.08	0.08
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.15	0.15	48.28	48.28	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.15	0.15	77.42	77.42	0.08	0.08
Portland	WCC	0.15	0.15	20.00	20.00	-0.09	-0.09
Butler	Horz	0.15	0.15	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.14	0.14	25.00	25.00	-0.07	-0.07
Arkansas St.	SB	0.14	0.14	39.39	39.39	-0.03	-0.03
Gonzaga	WCC	0.14	0.14	80.65	80.65	0.09	0.09
UCLA	P12	0.14	0.14	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
California	P12	0.14	0.14	72.73	72.73	0.06	0.06
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.12	0.12	67.74	67.74	0.04	0.04
Detroit	Horz	0.12	0.12	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.12	0.12	20.69	20.69	-0.07	-0.07
Valparaiso	Horz	0.12	0.12	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.12	0.12	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Denver	SB	0.11	0.11	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
Auburn	SEC	0.11	0.11	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Xavier	A10	0.11	0.11	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Brigham Young	WCC	0.11	0.11	74.19	74.19	0.05	0.05
Southern Utah	Sum	0.11	0.11	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.11	0.11	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.11	0.11	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.11	0.11	74.19	74.19	0.05	0.05
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.11	0.11	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.10	0.10	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.10	0.10	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
Colorado St.	MWC	0.09	0.09	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.09	0.09	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.09	0.09	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.09	0.09	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.09	0.09	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Santa Clara	WCC	0.09	0.09	21.43	21.43	-0.05	-0.05
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.09	0.09	10.34	10.34	-0.07	-0.07
Southern California	P12	0.08	0.08	18.75	18.75	-0.05	-0.05
North Dakota	GWC	0.08	0.08	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.08	0.08	20.69	20.69	-0.05	-0.05
Drake	MVC	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Harvard	Ivy	0.07	0.07	86.21	86.21	0.05	0.05
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
San Diego	WCC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Texas Christian	MWC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.06	0.06	21.88	21.88	-0.03	-0.03
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Missouri St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Manhattan	MAAC	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.06	0.06	16.13	16.13	-0.04	-0.04
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Wichita St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	83.87	83.87	0.04	0.04
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.05	0.05	23.08	23.08	-0.03	-0.03
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.05	10.71	10.71	-0.04	-0.04
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.05	0.05	34.62	34.62	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Bryant	NEC	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
Grambling	SWAC	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.03	0.03	28.00	28.00	-0.01	-0.01
St. Mary's	WCC	0.03	0.03	83.33	83.33	0.02	0.02
Charlotte	A10	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Kansas	B12	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Louisville	BE	0.03	0.03	74.29	74.29	0.01	0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
North Florida	ASun	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Pittsburgh	BE	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Chicago St.	GWC	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Hofstra	CAA	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Towson	CAA	0.03	0.03	3.12	3.12	-0.03	-0.03
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01