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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Idaho

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:209.0
Current RPI:209
Expected SOS:308
Current SOS:308
Current Record:16-13
Expected Record:16-13
Current Conf Record:13-7
Expected Conf Record:13-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-3
Current OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC RPI:242
Expected OOC SOS:239



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-13209.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Idaho.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Northern Illinois (241.0)MACA63-49L0%0.0
11-18Little Rock (243.0)SBA57-65W100%0.0
11-21South Dakota St. (160.0)SumH96-89W100%0.0
11-25Sam Houston St. (194.0)SlndA69-62L0%0.0
11-29San Jose St. (191.0)MWCH49-58L0%0.0
12-3UC Davis (166.0)BWH68-66W100%0.0
12-7Washington St. (159.0)P12A61-48L0%0.0
12-10South Dakota St. (160.0)SumA80-77L0%0.0
12-22Stanford (100.0)P12A86-80L0%0.0
12-30Eastern Washington (148.0)BSkyH62-69L0%0.0
1-5Montana (221.0)BSkyH57-70L0%0.0
1-7Montana St. (253.0)BSkyH83-81W100%0.0
1-12Weber St. (185.0)BSkyA91-66L0%0.0
1-14Idaho St. (340.0)BSkyA62-77W100%0.0
1-19Southern Utah (341.0)BSkyH79-67W100%0.0
1-21Northern Arizona (335.0)BSkyH65-49W100%0.0
1-26Montana St. (253.0)BSkyA94-91L0%0.0
1-28Montana (221.0)BSkyA77-85W100%0.0
2-2Portland St. (268.0)BSkyH89-72W100%0.0
2-4Sacramento St. (293.0)BSkyH81-67W100%0.0
2-9Northern Colorado (286.0)BSkyA76-88W100%0.0
2-11North Dakota (144.0)BSkyA88-65L0%0.0
2-17Eastern Washington (148.0)BSkyA77-67L0%0.0
2-23Idaho St. (340.0)BSkyH69-61W100%0.0
2-25Weber St. (185.0)BSkyH83-78W100%0.0
3-2Northern Arizona (335.0)BSkyA75-77W100%0.0
3-4Southern Utah (341.0)BSkyA75-84W100%0.0
3-9Montana (221.0)BSkyN81-77W100%0.0
3-10North Dakota (144.0)BSkyN69-64L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Idaho's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Idaho's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Idaho.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
IdahoBSky26.4526.4558.2758.274.374.37
MontanaBSky6.016.0151.7251.720.210.21
Weber St.BSky4.544.5457.1457.140.650.65
Eastern WashingtonBSky4.424.4262.0762.071.071.07
Southern UtahBSky4.384.3813.7913.79-3.17-3.17
North DakotaBSky4.374.3765.3865.381.341.34
Montana St.BSky4.364.3646.4346.43-0.31-0.31
Idaho St.BSky4.344.3414.2914.29-3.10-3.10
Northern ArizonaBSky4.324.3227.5927.59-1.94-1.94
South Dakota St.Sum3.453.4550.0050.000.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky2.812.8139.2939.29-0.60-0.60
Portland St.BSky2.762.7644.4444.44-0.31-0.31
Northern ColoradoBSky2.612.6134.6234.62-0.80-0.80
Washington St.P121.951.9537.9337.93-0.47-0.47
San Jose St.MWC1.891.8940.7440.74-0.35-0.35
UC DavisBW1.871.8764.5264.520.540.54
StanfordP121.811.8141.3841.38-0.31-0.31
Little RockSB1.781.7844.8344.83-0.18-0.18
Northern IllinoisMAC1.721.7239.2939.29-0.37-0.37
Sam Houston St.Slnd1.721.7255.1755.170.180.18
South DakotaSum0.390.3964.5264.520.110.11
DenverSum0.370.3753.3353.330.020.02
WyomingMWC0.280.2853.3353.330.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.260.2660.7160.710.060.06
ColoradoP120.230.2356.2556.250.030.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.220.2254.8454.840.020.02
Oral RobertsSum0.220.2221.4321.43-0.12-0.12
PepperdineWCC0.200.2026.6726.67-0.09-0.09
SeattleWAC0.190.1937.0437.04-0.05-0.05
MilwaukeeHorz0.190.1929.4129.41-0.08-0.08
UC IrvineBW0.190.1957.5857.580.030.03
Utah St.MWC0.180.1843.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Arizona St.P120.170.1745.4545.45-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
UNLVMWC0.170.1734.3834.38-0.05-0.05
UtahP120.170.1762.0762.070.040.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.170.1742.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.170.1735.7135.71-0.05-0.05
Cal St. FullertonBW0.170.1751.7251.720.010.01
CaliforniaP120.170.1763.6463.640.050.05
OregonP120.170.1784.8584.850.120.12
USCP120.170.1772.7372.730.080.08
UC RiversideBW0.170.1722.2222.22-0.09-0.09
IUPUISum0.160.1640.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.150.1567.8667.860.050.05
ArizonaP120.150.1588.2488.240.110.11
Central MichiganMAC0.150.1546.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
WashingtonP120.140.1429.0329.03-0.06-0.06
Colorado St.MWC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
Boise St.MWC0.120.1262.0762.070.030.03
San FranciscoWCC0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
Northern IowaMVC0.120.1244.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
BYUWCC0.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.110.1125.0025.00-0.06-0.06
LamarSlnd0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Fort WayneSum0.110.1157.1457.140.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.110.1123.0823.08-0.06-0.06
Eastern MichiganMAC0.090.0941.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.090.0936.0036.00-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.090.0960.7160.710.020.02
Oregon St.P120.090.0912.9012.90-0.06-0.06
UCLAP120.090.0987.8887.880.070.07
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.080.0873.3373.330.040.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0853.5753.570.010.01
DrakeMVC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
MississippiSEC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
IowaB100.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
NevadaMWC0.060.0682.3582.350.040.04
North FloridaASun0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.03-0.03
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.060.0687.5087.500.040.04
Kent St.MAC0.060.0661.7661.760.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0632.0032.00-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.060.0664.7164.710.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.060.0628.1228.12-0.03-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0619.2319.23-0.04-0.04
NJITASun0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Texas TechB120.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
TroySB0.060.0658.8258.820.010.01
WisconsinB100.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
BryantNEC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
NorthwesternB100.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
Saint LouisA100.060.0636.3636.36-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
XavierBE0.060.0661.7661.760.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
HawaiiBW0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0518.5218.52-0.03-0.03
UMKCWAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
BucknellPat0.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
ButlerBE0.030.0374.1974.190.020.02
OklahomaB120.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.020.02
ElonCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
NebraskaB100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.030.0377.4277.420.020.02
CreightonBE0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
HarvardIvy0.030.0361.5461.540.010.01
KansasB120.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
Kansas St.B120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Miami FLACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
SMUAmer0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
TulsaAmer0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01