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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Idaho

Conference:BSky
Expected RPI:191.0
Current RPI:191
Expected SOS:315
Current SOS:315
Current Record:19-12
Expected Record:19-12
Current Conf Record:13-7
Expected Conf Record:13-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:16-7
Current OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:165
Expected OOC SOS:220



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-12191.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Idaho.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14San Jose St. (301.0)MWCA54-74W100%0.0
11-17Cal St. Bakersfield (117.0)WACA68-45L0%0.0
11-23North Texas (295.0)CUSAA63-65W100%0.0
11-24Troy (293.0)SBN69-63W100%0.0
11-25Samford (252.0)SCN75-58L0%0.0
11-28Northern Illinois (136.0)MACH59-66L0%0.0
12-2Cal St. Bakersfield (117.0)WACH67-63W100%0.0
12-5Arkansas Little Rock (42.0)SBH54-64L0%0.0
12-7USC (51.0)P12A74-55L0%0.0
12-10Washington St. (212.0)P12H78-74W100%0.0
12-22UC Davis (281.0)BWA51-68W100%0.0
12-31North Dakota (218.0)BSkyA71-74W100%0.0
1-2Northern Colorado (304.0)BSkyA70-75W100%0.0
1-9Eastern Washington (233.0)BSkyA74-60L0%0.0
1-14Northern Arizona (333.0)BSkyH83-76W100%0.0
1-16Southern Utah (336.0)BSkyH83-85L0%0.0
1-21Montana (145.0)BSkyA58-63W100%0.0
1-23Montana St. (260.0)BSkyA70-68L0%0.0
1-28Sacramento St. (273.0)BSkyH63-65L0%0.0
1-30Portland St. (282.0)BSkyH56-55W100%0.0
2-4Southern Utah (336.0)BSkyA44-68W100%0.0
2-6Northern Arizona (333.0)BSkyA72-70L0%0.0
2-11Northern Colorado (304.0)BSkyH73-67W100%0.0
2-13North Dakota (218.0)BSkyH65-64W100%0.0
2-18Portland St. (282.0)BSkyA74-80W100%0.0
2-20Sacramento St. (273.0)BSkyA68-65L0%0.0
2-27Eastern Washington (233.0)BSkyH66-62W100%0.0
3-3Weber St. (108.0)BSkyH62-58W100%0.0
3-5Idaho St. (256.0)BSkyH80-70W100%0.0
3-10Eastern Washington (233.0)BSkyN77-73W100%0.0
3-11Montana (145.0)BSkyN81-72L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Idaho's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Idaho's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Idaho.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
IdahoBSky26.4626.4662.4262.426.576.57
Eastern WashingtonBSky5.715.7151.8551.850.210.21
MontanaBSky4.204.2062.9662.961.091.09
Northern ArizonaBSky4.194.197.697.69-3.54-3.54
Portland St.BSky4.164.1640.7440.74-0.77-0.77
Sacramento St.BSky4.144.1437.0437.04-1.07-1.07
North DakotaBSky4.114.1151.8551.850.150.15
Northern ColoradoBSky4.054.0529.6329.63-1.65-1.65
Southern UtahBSky4.054.0511.5411.54-3.12-3.12
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC3.343.3474.0774.071.611.61
Weber St.BSky2.672.6776.6776.671.431.43
Montana St.BSky2.652.6541.3841.38-0.46-0.46
Idaho St.BSky2.592.5950.0050.000.000.00
Washington St.P121.801.8027.5927.59-0.81-0.81
Arkansas Little RockSB1.731.7386.6786.671.271.27
UC DavisBW1.721.7233.3333.33-0.57-0.57
San Jose St.MWC1.721.7222.2222.22-0.96-0.96
TroySB1.721.7225.0025.00-0.86-0.86
SamfordSC1.671.6736.6736.67-0.44-0.44
North TexasCUSA1.671.6734.4834.48-0.52-0.52
USCP121.671.6762.5062.500.420.42
Northern IllinoisMAC1.611.6157.1457.140.230.23
SeattleWAC0.440.4442.8642.86-0.06-0.06
Utah ValleyWAC0.280.2833.3333.33-0.09-0.09
South DakotaSum0.220.2240.0040.00-0.04-0.04
Arizona St.P120.210.2146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.200.2060.0060.000.040.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.190.1958.0658.060.030.03
Chicago St.WAC0.190.193.453.45-0.18-0.18
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.190.1918.5218.52-0.12-0.12
PortlandWCC0.190.1935.4835.48-0.06-0.06
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.190.1928.5728.57-0.08-0.08
DenverSum0.190.1951.6151.610.010.01
UtahP120.190.1975.7675.760.100.10
Cal St. FullertonBW0.170.1728.5728.57-0.07-0.07
UC RiversideBW0.170.1738.7138.71-0.04-0.04
WyomingMWC0.170.1740.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.170.1779.3179.310.100.10
New Mexico St.WAC0.170.1767.7467.740.060.06
ColoradoP120.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
ArizonaP120.160.1675.7675.760.080.08
WashingtonP120.160.1656.2556.250.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.140.1483.8783.870.100.10
GonzagaWCC0.140.1478.1278.120.080.08
Mississippi St.SEC0.140.1445.1645.16-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.140.1423.0823.08-0.07-0.07
San FranciscoWCC0.140.1448.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.130.1344.8344.83-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.130.1351.7251.720.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.130.1358.0658.060.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.130.1346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
Utah St.MWC0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
KansasB120.110.1187.8887.880.080.08
UMKCWAC0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
New MexicoMWC0.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.110.1129.0329.03-0.05-0.05
Arkansas St.SB0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
StanfordP120.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
UNLVMWC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
HawaiiBW0.080.0883.3383.330.060.06
UTSACUSA0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
ToledoMAC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
TulsaAmer0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.080.0828.5728.57-0.04-0.04
San DiegoWCC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
Southern MissCUSA0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
DavidsonA100.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
PittsburghACC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0821.4321.43-0.05-0.05
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0884.3884.380.050.05
VMISC0.080.0822.2222.22-0.04-0.04
OregonP120.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
Oregon St.P120.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
ButlerBE0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
IUPUISum0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
AkronMAC0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
Ball St.MAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
BradleyMVC0.060.0612.9012.90-0.04-0.04
DartmouthIvy0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0656.0056.000.010.01
Kansas St.B120.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
UMBCAE0.060.0621.8821.88-0.03-0.03
WisconsinB100.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
FIUCUSA0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0562.8662.860.010.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
UTEPCUSA0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
FurmanSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
MercerSC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
The CitadelSC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
MarquetteBE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
LamarSlnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0324.2424.24-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
CreightonBE0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0322.8622.86-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
SyracuseACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
BYUWCC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
DePaulBE0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
NebraskaB100.030.0347.0647.06-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Texas TechB120.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
LafayettePat0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
XavierBE0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
YaleIvy0.020.0277.7877.780.010.01