live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Rider

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:198.0
Current RPI:198
Expected SOS:190
Current SOS:190
Current Record:14-17
Expected Record:14-17
Current Conf Record:10-12
Expected Conf Record:10-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-3
Current OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC RPI:184
Expected OOC SOS:179



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-17198.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Rider.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Lehigh (236.0)PatA92-78L0%0.0
11-17Purdue (145.0)B10A81-77L0%0.0
11-23Central Connecticut (293.0)NECA73-89W100%0.0
11-26Albany (185.0)AEH59-70L0%0.0
11-29Rice (299.0)CUSAN93-97W100%0.0
11-30North Dakota St. (35.0)SumN87-70L0%0.0
12-5Monmouth (292.0)MAACA83-89W100%0.0
12-8Quinnipiac (105.0)MAACH90-78W100%0.0
12-14Wagner (218.0)NECH79-58W100%0.0
12-21Villanova (5.0)BEA88-67L0%0.0
12-29Penn (284.0)IvyH89-88W100%0.0
1-2Niagara (302.0)MAACH85-83W100%0.0
1-4Siena (193.0)MAACA62-47L0%0.0
1-10Canisius (96.0)MAACA94-91L0%0.0
1-12Niagara (302.0)MAACA78-90W100%0.0
1-16Saint Peter's (231.0)MAACH69-77L0%0.0
1-18Marist (250.0)MAACA56-66W100%0.0
1-24Manhattan (60.0)MAACA67-51L0%0.0
1-26Monmouth (292.0)MAACH77-71W100%0.0
1-31Saint Peter's (231.0)MAACA53-71W100%0.0
2-3Fairfield (289.0)MAACH73-65W100%0.0
2-6Marist (250.0)MAACH61-68L0%0.0
2-8Quinnipiac (105.0)MAACA82-61L0%0.0
2-13Manhattan (60.0)MAACH69-86L0%0.0
2-15Fairfield (289.0)MAACA62-71W100%0.0
2-21Iona (59.0)MAACH77-80L0%0.0
2-23Siena (193.0)MAACH60-69L0%0.0
2-28Canisius (96.0)MAACH66-79L0%0.0
3-2Iona (59.0)MAACA97-81L0%0.0
3-6Monmouth (292.0)MAACN71-60W100%0.0
3-8Iona (59.0)MAACN94-71L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Rider's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Rider's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Rider.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
RiderMAAC26.5126.5145.7545.75-2.25-2.25
IonaMAAC5.905.9065.5265.521.831.83
MonmouthMAAC5.865.8637.9337.93-1.41-1.41
ManhattanMAAC4.424.4276.6776.672.362.36
QuinnipiacMAAC4.394.3965.5265.521.361.36
NiagaraMAAC4.384.3822.5822.58-2.40-2.40
CanisiusMAAC4.374.3763.3363.331.161.16
SienaMAAC4.374.3743.3343.33-0.58-0.58
Saint Peter'sMAAC4.344.3444.8344.83-0.45-0.45
MaristMAAC4.314.3137.9337.93-1.04-1.04
FairfieldMAAC4.294.2923.3323.33-2.29-2.29
PennIvy1.841.8429.6329.63-0.75-0.75
WagnerNEC1.801.8062.0762.070.430.43
PurdueB101.741.7445.1645.16-0.17-0.17
Central ConnecticutNEC1.721.7235.7135.71-0.49-0.49
AlbanyAE1.721.7254.8454.840.170.17
LehighPat1.661.6641.9441.94-0.27-0.27
VillanovaBE1.641.6487.1087.101.221.22
North Dakota St.Sum1.611.6177.7877.780.900.90
RiceCUSA1.611.6118.5218.52-1.02-1.02
St. BonaventureA100.250.2553.1253.120.020.02
Seton HallBE0.250.2550.0050.000.000.00
La SalleA100.230.2348.3948.39-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.230.2351.5251.520.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.210.2154.8454.840.020.02
VermontAE0.200.2066.6766.670.070.07
HofstraCAA0.200.2030.3030.30-0.08-0.08
FordhamA100.200.2032.2632.26-0.07-0.07
Holy CrossPat0.200.2059.3859.380.040.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.190.1931.0331.03-0.07-0.07
Sacred HeartNEC0.180.1816.1316.13-0.13-0.13
Penn St.B100.180.1846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.180.1823.3323.33-0.09-0.09
BucknellPat0.180.1853.3353.330.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.160.1631.0331.03-0.06-0.06
CornellIvy0.160.163.703.70-0.15-0.15
BrownIvy0.160.1651.8551.850.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.160.1672.7372.730.070.07
Boston UniversityPat0.150.1570.5970.590.060.06
St. John'sBE0.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
ProvidenceBE0.150.1567.6567.650.050.05
BuffaloMAC0.150.1564.2964.290.040.04
BryantNEC0.140.1454.8454.840.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.130.1332.2632.26-0.05-0.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
Ohio St.B100.130.1373.5373.530.060.06
LafayettePat0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Stony BrookAE0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
YaleIvy0.110.1151.8551.850.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
South DakotaSum0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
NJITind0.110.1136.0036.00-0.03-0.03
George MasonA100.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
ElonSC0.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
MaineAE0.100.1017.8617.86-0.07-0.07
Kent St.MAC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.100.1072.7372.730.050.05
Loyola MDPat0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
UMBCAE0.100.1027.5927.59-0.05-0.05
DenverSum0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
HarvardIvy0.090.0986.2186.210.060.06
IPFWSum0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
PrincetonIvy0.090.0970.3770.370.040.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
IowaB100.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Notre DameACC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.080.0817.2417.24-0.05-0.05
NortheasternCAA0.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
ButlerBE0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
ColgatePat0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
MinnesotaB100.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.04-0.04
NevadaMWC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
WoffordSC0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.060.0610.3410.34-0.05-0.05
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0680.6580.650.040.04
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0573.5373.530.030.03
HoustonAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
TempleAmer0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MarylandACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
AmericanPat0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
ArmyPat0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
CreightonBE0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
DePaulBE0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
GeorgetownBE0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Green BayHorz0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
LamarSlnd0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
LouisvilleAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
MarquetteBE0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
MemphisAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
MichiganB100.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
NavyPat0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
RichmondA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
RutgersAmer0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0541.1841.18-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
WisconsinB100.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
XavierBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
DavidsonSC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
East CarolinaCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
TulaneCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
TulsaCUSA0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
UABCUSA0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
UICHorz0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
IllinoisB100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
IndianaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
USCP120.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00