Rider

Conference:	MAAC
Expected RPI:	69.0
Current RPI:	69
Expected SOS:	154
Current SOS:	154
Current Record:	22-9
Expected Record:	22-9
Current Conf Record:	15-4
Expected Conf Record:	15-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	10-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	11-2
Current OOC Record:	7-5
Expected OOC Record:	7-5
Expected OOC RPI:	49
Expected OOC SOS:	48

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
22-9	69.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Rider.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Hampton (237.0)	MEAC	H	90-75	W	100%
11-13	Xavier (3.0)	BE	A	101-75	L	0%
11-15	Hartford (198.0)	AE	H	89-53	W	100%
11-20	George Washington (195.0)	A10	A	65-67	W	100%
11-23	UC Irvine (119.0)	BW	N	82-90	W	100%
11-24	Hampton (237.0)	MEAC	N	94-80	W	100%
11-29	Providence (32.0)	BE	A	88-84	L	0%
12-2	Drexel (242.0)	CAA	A	89-77	L	0%
12-6	Robert Morris (196.0)	NEC	A	78-75	L	0%
12-9	Hofstra (121.0)	CAA	H	82-88	L	0%
12-16	Wagner (109.0)	NEC	H	90-84	W	100%
12-22	Penn St. (77.0)	B10	A	70-71	W	100%
12-29	Canisius (124.0)	MAAC	A	77-76	L	0%
12-31	Niagara (163.0)	MAAC	A	76-99	W	100%
1-5	Fairfield (180.0)	MAAC	H	96-77	W	100%
1-7	Manhattan (228.0)	MAAC	A	76-82	W	100%
1-12	Quinnipiac (277.0)	MAAC	H	78-60	W	100%
1-14	Iona (107.0)	MAAC	A	91-64	L	0%
1-18	Saint Peter's (251.0)	MAAC	A	84-88	W	100%
1-20	Marist (324.0)	MAAC	H	60-57	W	100%
1-23	Fairfield (180.0)	MAAC	A	88-90	W	100%
1-26	Saint Peter's (251.0)	MAAC	H	63-60	W	100%
1-29	Monmouth (199.0)	MAAC	H	92-85	W	100%
2-4	Quinnipiac (277.0)	MAAC	A	59-74	W	100%
2-8	Manhattan (228.0)	MAAC	H	77-73	W	100%
2-10	Marist (324.0)	MAAC	A	79-89	W	100%
2-15	Siena (299.0)	MAAC	H	97-71	W	100%
2-18	Canisius (124.0)	MAAC	H	83-82	W	100%
2-22	Monmouth (199.0)	MAAC	A	91-77	L	0%
2-25	Iona (107.0)	MAAC	H	110-101	W	100%
3-2	Saint Peter's (251.0)	MAAC	N	55-66	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Rider's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Rider's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Rider.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Rider	MAAC	26.34	26.34	75.56	75.56	13.46	13.46
Saint Peter's	MAAC	5.65	5.65	44.83	44.83	-0.58	-0.58
Fairfield	MAAC	4.16	4.16	54.84	54.84	0.40	0.40
Iona	MAAC	4.16	4.16	61.29	61.29	0.94	0.94
Quinnipiac	MAAC	4.16	4.16	38.71	38.71	-0.94	-0.94
Monmouth	MAAC	4.08	4.08	34.48	34.48	-1.27	-1.27
Canisius	MAAC	4.06	4.06	66.67	66.67	1.35	1.35
Manhattan	MAAC	4.03	4.03	48.28	48.28	-0.14	-0.14
Marist	MAAC	4.03	4.03	20.69	20.69	-2.36	-2.36
Hampton	MEAC	3.27	3.27	55.17	55.17	0.34	0.34
Siena	MAAC	2.60	2.60	25.81	25.81	-1.26	-1.26
Niagara	MAAC	2.54	2.54	61.29	61.29	0.57	0.57
Robert Morris	NEC	1.79	1.79	46.88	46.88	-0.11	-0.11
Hofstra	CAA	1.79	1.79	58.62	58.62	0.31	0.31
Wagner	NEC	1.76	1.76	72.41	72.41	0.79	0.79
Xavier	BE	1.76	1.76	84.38	84.38	1.21	1.21
Drexel	CAA	1.74	1.74	35.48	35.48	-0.51	-0.51
George Washington	A10	1.71	1.71	46.88	46.88	-0.11	-0.11
Hartford	AE	1.69	1.69	60.00	60.00	0.34	0.34
Providence	BE	1.69	1.69	60.61	60.61	0.36	0.36
Penn St.	B10	1.64	1.64	63.64	63.64	0.45	0.45
UC Irvine	BW	1.61	1.61	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.31	0.31	51.52	51.52	0.01	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.30	0.30	65.62	65.62	0.09	0.09
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.25	0.25	37.93	37.93	-0.06	-0.06
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.23	0.23	37.93	37.93	-0.06	-0.06
Elon	CAA	0.23	0.23	40.00	40.00	-0.05	-0.05
Albany	AE	0.23	0.23	67.74	67.74	0.08	0.08
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.23	0.23	30.00	30.00	-0.09	-0.09
New Hampshire	AE	0.18	0.18	27.59	27.59	-0.08	-0.08
St. John's	BE	0.17	0.17	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Towson	CAA	0.16	0.16	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.16	0.16	58.62	58.62	0.03	0.03
Army	Pat	0.16	0.16	41.38	41.38	-0.03	-0.03
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.16	0.16	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
College of Charleston	CAA	0.15	0.15	77.42	77.42	0.08	0.08
Bryant	NEC	0.15	0.15	9.68	9.68	-0.12	-0.12
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.15	0.15	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Lafayette	Pat	0.15	0.15	30.00	30.00	-0.06	-0.06
Villanova	BE	0.15	0.15	88.24	88.24	0.11	0.11
Northwestern	B10	0.15	0.15	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.13	0.13	30.00	30.00	-0.05	-0.05
UMass Lowell	AE	0.13	0.13	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
James Madison	CAA	0.13	0.13	29.03	29.03	-0.05	-0.05
Lehigh	Pat	0.13	0.13	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.13	0.13	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.13	0.13	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.13	0.13	15.62	15.62	-0.09	-0.09
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.13	0.13	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.13	0.13	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Vermont	AE	0.13	0.13	78.79	78.79	0.07	0.07
La Salle	A10	0.13	0.13	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.13	0.13	78.12	78.12	0.07	0.07
Brown	Ivy	0.12	0.12	38.46	38.46	-0.03	-0.03
Massachusetts	A10	0.12	0.12	39.39	39.39	-0.03	-0.03
Creighton	BE	0.12	0.12	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Delaware	CAA	0.10	0.10	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.10	0.10	68.75	68.75	0.04	0.04
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.10	0.10	24.24	24.24	-0.05	-0.05
Missouri St.	MVC	0.10	0.10	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.10	0.10	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.10	0.10	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
Virginia	ACC	0.10	0.10	93.94	93.94	0.09	0.09
Stony Brook	AE	0.10	0.10	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
NJIT	ASun	0.10	0.10	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Fordham	A10	0.10	0.10	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Maine	AE	0.10	0.10	13.33	13.33	-0.07	-0.07
Penn	Ivy	0.10	0.10	74.19	74.19	0.05	0.05
Yale	Ivy	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.10	0.10	75.76	75.76	0.05	0.05
Nebraska	B10	0.10	0.10	68.75	68.75	0.04	0.04
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.10	0.10	10.71	10.71	-0.08	-0.08
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.10	0.10	23.08	23.08	-0.05	-0.05
Houston	Amer	0.10	0.10	78.79	78.79	0.06	0.06
Rhode Island	A10	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Butler	BE	0.10	0.10	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
DePaul	BE	0.10	0.10	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Georgetown	BE	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Marquette	BE	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Purdue	B10	0.10	0.10	82.35	82.35	0.06	0.06
Ohio St.	B10	0.10	0.10	75.00	75.00	0.05	0.05
Dayton	A10	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
UMBC	AE	0.08	0.08	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Bucknell	Pat	0.08	0.08	73.53	73.53	0.04	0.04
Harvard	Ivy	0.08	0.08	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.08	0.08	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.08	0.08	13.33	13.33	-0.06	-0.06
Princeton	Ivy	0.08	0.08	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.08	0.08	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
South Alabama	SB	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.07	0.07	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
Loyola MD	Pat	0.07	0.07	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.07	0.07	62.07	62.07	0.02	0.02
Colorado	P12	0.07	0.07	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Hawaii	BW	0.07	0.07	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.07	0.07	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.07	0.07	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Columbia	Ivy	0.07	0.07	26.92	26.92	-0.03	-0.03
George Mason	A10	0.07	0.07	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Louis	A10	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Appalachian St.	SB	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Colgate	Pat	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Connecticut	Amer	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	6.67	6.67	-0.05	-0.05
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.03	-0.03
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	82.76	82.76	0.03	0.03
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
The Citadel	SC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Tulsa	Amer	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
UMKC	WAC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Pacific	WCC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Texas St.	SB	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Rutgers	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Temple	Amer	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Cal Poly	BW	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.05	0.05	14.29	14.29	-0.03	-0.03
Davidson	A10	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Jacksonville	ASun	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Long Beach St.	BW	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.05	0.05	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Syracuse	ACC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
UC Riverside	BW	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
VCU	A10	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Montana	BSky	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland	B10	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
American	Pat	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
FIU	CUSA	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Portland	WCC	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
BYU	WCC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	32.35	32.35	-0.01	-0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Louisville	ACC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Memphis	Amer	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Mercer	SC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
UT Arlington	SB	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Baylor	B12	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Cincinnati	Amer	0.02	0.02	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Denver	Sum	0.02	0.02	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.02	0.02	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Idaho	BSky	0.02	0.02	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Little Rock	SB	0.02	0.02	20.00	20.00	-0.01	-0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.02	0.02	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.02	0.02	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	22.22	22.22	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.02	0.02	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.02	0.02	83.33	83.33	0.02	0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.02	0.02	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
San Diego	WCC	0.02	0.02	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.02	0.02	80.00	80.00	0.01	0.01
UCLA	P12	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Utah St.	MWC	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Belmont	OVC	0.02	0.02	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.02	0.02	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois	B10	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Indiana	B10	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Michigan	B10	0.02	0.02	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.02	0.02	87.88	87.88	0.02	0.02
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.02	0.02	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.02	0.02	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Washington	P12	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01