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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.


Rider

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:213.8
Current RPI:219
Expected SOS:158
Current SOS:177
Current Record:9-15
Expected Record:12-19
Current Conf Record:6-6
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Probability of Auto Bid:1.20%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-4
Current OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC Record:3-10
Expected OOC RPI:237
Expected OOC SOS:139



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-15149.80.16%
15-16165.41.56%
14-17182.58.97%
13-18198.221.31%
12-19213.231.28%
11-20227.824.64%
10-21242.710.62%
9-22257.51.45%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Rider.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Robert Morris (111.2)NECA83-57L0%0.0
11-13Pittsburgh (74.5)BEA86-78L0%0.0
11-15Drexel (79.2)CAAH62-80L0%0.0
11-17Pennsylvania (113.9)IvyH72-78L0%0.0
11-21Howard (313.9)MEACH74-72W100%0.0
11-25James Madison (251.6)CAAN69-86L0%0.0
11-26La Salle (69.1)A10A82-70L0%0.0
12-2Manhattan (115.3)MAACH55-71L0%0.0
12-4Marist (276.6)MAACA95-75L0%0.0
12-9Florida (14.9)SECN90-69L0%0.0
12-14Princeton (117.6)IvyH71-72L0%0.0
12-17MD Baltimore County (332.6)AEA66-73W100%0.0
12-22Monmouth (275.8)NECA62-74W100%0.0
12-30Stony Brook (154.7)AEA79-62L0%0.0
1-2Manhattan (115.3)MAACA77-88W100%0.0
1-6Marist (276.6)MAACH99-86W100%0.0
1-8St. Peter's (280.4)MAACA58-72W100%0.0
1-12Siena (226.0)MAACA83-79L0%0.0
1-16Fairfield (138.4)MAACA61-52L0%0.0
1-20Iona (46.0)MAACA91-71L0%0.0
1-22Canisius (322.0)MAACH89-65W100%0.0
1-26St. Peter's (280.4)MAACH90-55W100%0.0
1-29Siena (226.0)MAACH83-72W100%0.0
2-3Loyola MD (83.9)MAACA63-46L0%0.0
2-5Niagara (208.7)MAACH0-062%3.3
2-9Canisius (322.0)MAACA0-068%5.0
2-11Niagara (208.7)MAACA0-038%-3.5
2-15Iona (46.0)MAACH0-017%-10.4
2-18Albany (208.3)AEA0-033%-4.8
2-24Loyola MD (83.9)MAACH0-037%-3.5
2-26Fairfield (138.4)MAACH0-039%-3.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Rider's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Rider's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Rider.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
RiderMAAC26.4526.3339.8139.75-5.39-5.40
NiagaraMAAC0.854.1637.5040.94-0.21-0.75
SienaMAAC4.814.1545.0045.22-0.48-0.40
CanisiusMAAC2.854.1518.1820.08-1.81-2.48
ManhattanMAAC4.814.1369.5770.391.881.68
St. Peter'sMAAC4.804.1223.8126.34-2.51-1.95
Loyola MDMAAC2.774.1276.1972.871.451.89
IonaMAAC2.814.1078.2679.291.592.40
FairfieldMAAC2.674.0752.3852.370.130.19
MaristMAAC4.794.0633.3332.20-1.60-1.45
MD Baltimore CountyAE2.231.9114.2916.94-1.59-1.27
PennsylvaniaIvy2.531.9152.3855.400.120.21
AlbanyAE0.381.8460.0060.210.080.37
Robert MorrisNEC2.431.8266.6769.030.810.69
DrexelCAA2.191.8078.2677.351.240.99
James MadisonCAA2.261.8037.5038.19-0.57-0.43
PrincetonIvy2.271.7544.4451.12-0.250.04
Stony BrookAE2.131.7265.0066.820.640.58
La SalleA102.261.7269.5767.780.880.61
PittsburghBE2.221.7259.0956.760.400.23
MonmouthNEC2.171.6929.1729.87-0.90-0.68
FloridaSEC2.081.6181.8276.891.330.87
HowardMEAC2.081.6119.0523.04-1.29-0.87
VermontAE0.330.3860.0062.490.070.10
BinghamtonAE0.410.360.004.02-0.41-0.33
HartfordAE0.230.3517.3920.97-0.15-0.21
New HampshireAE0.280.3335.0038.58-0.08-0.08
HofstraCAA0.250.2732.0035.39-0.09-0.08
Boston UniversityAE0.190.2548.0051.88-0.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.330.2555.0054.800.030.02
St. BonaventureA100.190.2460.0059.060.040.04
MaineAE0.140.2250.0049.730.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.230.2226.0928.60-0.11-0.09
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.220.218.7012.13-0.18-0.16
BrownIvy0.230.2127.2723.80-0.10-0.11
TowsonCAA0.260.214.005.26-0.24-0.19
St. Francis PANEC0.170.2121.7422.76-0.10-0.11
BuffaloMAC0.190.1968.4266.450.070.06
William & MaryCAA0.220.1912.5013.44-0.16-0.14
QuinnipiacNEC0.130.1956.5257.150.020.03
Long IslandNEC0.220.1970.8371.050.090.08
Central ConnecticutNEC0.170.1845.4545.70-0.02-0.02
George MasonCAA0.250.1876.0072.500.130.08
BucknellPat0.240.1773.9175.000.110.08
CornellIvy0.150.1736.8441.45-0.04-0.03
RutgersBE0.280.1650.0046.810.00-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.230.1647.8348.56-0.01-0.00
Old DominionCAA0.180.1660.0058.290.040.03
KentuckySEC0.140.1695.8392.570.130.14
DelawareCAA0.270.1647.8350.65-0.010.00
FordhamA100.220.1640.9134.50-0.04-0.05
WagnerNEC0.230.1682.6184.570.150.11
HarvardIvy0.040.1490.4887.910.030.10
DartmouthIvy0.000.1414.2917.17-0.00-0.09
YaleIvy0.150.1472.2263.190.070.04
George WashingtonA100.130.1334.7832.08-0.04-0.05
St. Francis NYNEC0.130.1356.5255.950.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.180.1362.5062.490.040.03
SyracuseBE0.170.1395.8392.010.160.11
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.1142.1149.81-0.01-0.00
South DakotaSum0.090.1126.3228.83-0.04-0.05
HamptonMEAC0.180.1136.3638.48-0.05-0.03
MinnesotaB100.140.1169.5761.310.050.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.130.1144.0045.89-0.02-0.01
MassachusettsA100.140.1173.9168.580.070.04
NavyPat0.140.119.5213.19-0.11-0.08
South FloridaBE0.090.1154.5548.600.01-0.00
LafayettePat0.190.1143.4842.95-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.CAA0.130.1166.6769.690.040.04
NC WilmingtonCAA0.090.1039.1336.10-0.02-0.03
VillanovaBE0.130.1045.4546.08-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.140.0975.0075.780.070.04
ArmyPat0.130.0840.9141.72-0.02-0.01
ColgatePat0.090.0830.4329.50-0.04-0.03
ConnecticutBE0.050.0868.1863.990.020.02
DaytonA100.090.0860.8760.960.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.090.0856.5250.270.010.00
Kent St.MAC0.130.0871.4369.050.060.03
MarylandACC0.040.0859.0950.820.010.00
RichmondA100.040.0850.0048.490.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.090.0865.2263.740.030.02
BryantNEC0.080.088.3310.86-0.07-0.06
DuquesneA100.130.0859.0956.350.020.01
TempleA100.090.0877.2775.060.050.04
TennesseeSEC0.090.0845.4544.66-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0869.5765.870.030.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0635.2939.85-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0619.0522.37-0.03-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0620.0019.96-0.03-0.03
AmericanPat0.090.0665.2263.790.030.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0625.0037.58-0.02-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.0668.1869.680.030.02
Arizona St.P120.050.0630.4331.43-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticSB0.090.0636.3639.72-0.03-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0650.0048.900.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.090.0639.1342.12-0.02-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.050.0640.9142.05-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0656.5254.220.010.00
Longwoodind0.050.0630.0027.84-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.050.0619.0521.29-0.03-0.03
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.050.0634.7835.20-0.01-0.02
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.050.0682.6181.440.030.03
RadfordBSth0.090.068.7013.10-0.07-0.04
Wake ForestACC0.050.0647.8343.66-0.00-0.01
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0656.5257.720.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.100.0572.7371.710.050.02
GeorgetownBE0.090.0580.9577.380.060.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0510.0014.93-0.07-0.04
St. John'sBE0.050.0543.4840.28-0.01-0.01
Virginia Military InstBSth0.090.0545.0044.15-0.01-0.01
DenverSB0.040.0570.8372.230.020.02
LehighPat0.090.0573.9174.910.040.03
MarshallCUSA0.040.0559.0959.720.010.01
NevadaWAC0.000.0580.9576.420.000.03
PurdueB100.040.0565.2260.580.010.01
Texas ArlingtonSlnd0.090.0576.1975.940.050.03
Utah St.WAC0.090.0550.0052.930.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.040.0540.9142.96-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.040.0581.8280.430.030.03
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.090.0580.0078.060.050.03
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0566.6760.800.030.01
Fresno St.WAC0.080.0539.1344.52-0.02-0.01
LouisvilleBE0.050.0578.2672.660.030.02
MercerASun0.000.0570.8371.640.000.02
MissouriB120.000.0591.3087.180.000.04
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.080.0533.3338.38-0.03-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.090.0520.8320.60-0.05-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0526.3229.79-0.00-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.090.0540.9139.56-0.02-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0573.9175.490.000.03
StetsonASun0.090.0531.8231.31-0.03-0.02
West VirginiaBE0.050.0565.2265.170.010.02
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0545.4541.20-0.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0330.4326.44-0.02-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0333.3334.47-0.02-0.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0361.9055.140.010.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0338.1042.78-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0347.6248.82-0.00-0.00
ElonSC0.050.0350.0047.590.00-0.00
KansasB120.050.0378.2678.390.030.02
Kansas St.B120.050.0372.7368.280.020.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0345.4546.99-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0333.3337.25-0.02-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0338.8943.93-0.01-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0370.8364.420.020.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0363.6463.160.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0352.3857.860.000.00
BradleyMVC0.040.0324.0024.86-0.02-0.01
VirginiaACC0.040.0381.8276.800.030.01
WinthropBSth0.040.0334.7834.61-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0368.1869.100.000.01
ArizonaP120.050.0366.6768.550.020.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0369.5765.150.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0356.5248.810.00-0.00
CharlotteA100.040.0350.0049.450.00-0.00
CincinnatiBE0.050.0369.5765.470.020.01
DavidsonSC0.050.0376.1976.760.020.01
DePaulBE0.050.0350.0042.830.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.000.0347.8349.03-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.050.0386.3683.090.030.02
East Tennessee St.ASun0.040.0352.3852.860.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0319.0525.52-0.03-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0317.3922.00-0.03-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0371.4373.350.020.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.040.0354.1754.750.000.00
Louisiana St.SEC0.050.0359.0957.280.010.00
MarquetteBE0.050.0379.1775.980.030.01
MemphisCUSA0.040.0369.5771.510.020.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0363.6456.710.010.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0378.2672.340.030.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0350.0058.160.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.040.0386.9683.160.030.02
North FloridaASun0.050.0345.8346.68-0.00-0.00
Notre DameBE0.050.0365.2262.650.010.01
OhioMAC0.040.0381.8277.200.030.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0386.9685.460.030.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0345.4540.70-0.00-0.00
St. LouisA100.000.0377.2777.670.000.01
Texas A&MB120.050.0352.3846.150.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.040.039.5211.44-0.03-0.02
UABCUSA0.050.0340.9139.82-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.050.0354.5556.790.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.040.0356.5255.200.010.00
Wright St.Horz0.050.0341.6740.61-0.01-0.00
XavierA100.040.0365.2263.740.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.040.0350.0051.530.000.00