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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Rider

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:140.0
Current RPI:140
Expected SOS:271
Current SOS:271
Current Record:21-11
Expected Record:21-11
Current Conf Record:15-6
Expected Conf Record:15-6
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:15-4
Current OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:188
Expected OOC SOS:288



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-11140.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Rider.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Princeton (191.0)IvyA64-58L0%0.0
11-18Penn (254.0)IvyA57-73W100%0.0
11-21Lehigh (175.0)PatH78-74W100%0.0
11-24Kansas (2.0)B12A87-60L0%0.0
11-27Michigan St. (23.0)B10N45-77L0%0.0
11-28Georgia Tech (153.0)ACCN61-54L0%0.0
11-30Santa Clara (202.0)WCCN60-68L0%0.0
12-3Central Connecticut (342.0)NECH69-56W100%0.0
12-7Siena (261.0)MAACH80-68W100%0.0
12-10Iona (51.0)MAACA77-64L0%0.0
12-13Hartford (244.0)AEA61-63W100%0.0
12-18Morgan St. (337.0)MEACH62-48W100%0.0
12-29Wagner (294.0)NECA71-76W100%0.0
1-2Marist (317.0)MAACA59-69W100%0.0
1-5Fairfield (299.0)MAACA46-62W100%0.0
1-10Saint Peter's (233.0)MAACH68-55W100%0.0
1-12Monmouth (176.0)MAACH54-55L0%0.0
1-15Quinnipiac (226.0)MAACA53-56W100%0.0
1-18Manhattan (168.0)MAACA79-82W100%0.0
1-22Iona (51.0)MAACH68-78L0%0.0
1-24Canisius (180.0)MAACH59-46W100%0.0
1-29Saint Peter's (233.0)MAACA49-58W100%0.0
2-2Siena (261.0)MAACA79-72L0%0.0
2-5Fairfield (299.0)MAACH54-52W100%0.0
2-8Manhattan (168.0)MAACH85-77W100%0.0
2-13Canisius (180.0)MAACA59-60W100%0.0
2-15Niagara (287.0)MAACA60-69W100%0.0
2-19Quinnipiac (226.0)MAACH94-83W100%0.0
2-21Niagara (287.0)MAACH61-65L0%0.0
2-26Monmouth (176.0)MAACA60-63W100%0.0
3-1Marist (317.0)MAACH59-49W100%0.0
3-7Saint Peter's (233.0)MAACN59-68L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Rider's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Rider's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Rider.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
RiderMAAC26.3926.3966.8866.888.918.91
Saint Peter'sMAAC5.745.7448.3948.39-0.19-0.19
ManhattanMAAC4.254.2563.3363.331.131.13
MonmouthMAAC4.244.2454.8454.840.410.41
IonaMAAC4.214.2175.0075.002.112.11
MaristMAAC4.194.1923.3323.33-2.23-2.23
NiagaraMAAC4.164.1625.0025.00-2.08-2.08
QuinnipiacMAAC4.164.1653.5753.570.300.30
SienaMAAC4.164.1634.4834.48-1.29-1.29
FairfieldMAAC4.154.1524.1424.14-2.15-2.15
CanisiusMAAC4.134.1357.1457.140.590.59
PennIvy1.791.7933.3333.33-0.60-0.60
HartfordAE1.761.7646.4346.43-0.13-0.13
Central ConnecticutNEC1.741.7416.6716.67-1.16-1.16
WagnerNEC1.691.6932.1432.14-0.60-0.60
PrincetonIvy1.691.6950.0050.000.000.00
LehighPat1.671.6753.5753.570.120.12
Michigan St.B101.611.6166.6766.670.540.54
Morgan St.MEAC1.611.6123.3323.33-0.86-0.86
KansasB121.591.5975.7675.760.820.82
Santa ClaraWCC1.591.5937.9337.93-0.38-0.38
Georgia TechACC1.561.5636.6736.67-0.42-0.42
CornellIvy0.280.2841.3841.38-0.05-0.05
AlbanyAE0.260.2675.0075.000.130.13
VermontAE0.240.2456.6756.670.030.03
BrownIvy0.200.2037.9337.93-0.05-0.05
BucknellPat0.200.2056.2556.250.030.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.200.2025.0025.00-0.10-0.10
MassachusettsA100.200.2053.1253.120.010.01
YaleIvy0.190.1966.6766.670.060.06
RutgersB100.190.1931.2531.25-0.07-0.07
Boston UniversityPat0.170.1741.3841.38-0.03-0.03
MarylandB100.170.1781.8281.820.110.11
ColumbiaIvy0.160.1644.4444.44-0.02-0.02
LafayettePat0.160.1661.2961.290.040.04
Loyola MDPat0.150.1536.6736.67-0.04-0.04
St. BonaventureA100.150.1558.0658.060.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.150.1566.6766.670.050.05
La SalleA100.150.1551.5251.520.000.00
FordhamA100.150.1530.0030.00-0.06-0.06
Norfolk St.MEAC0.150.1558.0658.060.020.02
DartmouthIvy0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.130.1344.8344.83-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.130.1310.0010.00-0.11-0.11
Stony BrookAE0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.130.1316.6716.67-0.09-0.09
PittsburghACC0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.130.1367.6567.650.040.04
Wake ForestACC0.120.1240.6240.62-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
HarvardIvy0.110.1174.0774.070.050.05
UMBCAE0.110.1113.3313.33-0.08-0.08
NavyPat0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
BryantNEC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.100.1071.8871.880.050.05
ArmyPat0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
Boston CollegeACC0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.100.1087.8887.880.070.07
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
TowsonCAA0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
WoffordSC0.100.1081.2581.250.060.06
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.090.0965.5265.520.030.03
West VirginiaB120.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
AmericanPat0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
New HampshireAE0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.070.0770.0070.000.030.03
ElonCAA0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
MarquetteBE0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Iowa St.B120.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
Seton HallBE0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
TCUB120.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0710.3410.34-0.05-0.05
VillanovaBE0.050.0594.1294.120.050.05
ColgatePat0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.050.050.000.00-0.05-0.05
HofstraCAA0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
GonzagaWCC0.050.0593.9493.940.050.05
Oregon St.P120.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
PacificWCC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
PortlandWCC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
UMKCWAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
BelmontOVC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
ClemsonACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
RadfordBSth0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0572.4172.410.020.02
South DakotaSum0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
VMISC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
SMUAmer0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
ArkansasSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
DrexelCAA0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
IndianaB100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
OklahomaB120.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
TexasB120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Texas TechB120.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
Arizona St.P120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
CaliforniaP120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
DePaulBE0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0358.3358.330.000.00
LipscombASun0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Washington St.P120.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
DaytonA100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
IPFWSum0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
NJITind0.030.0356.0056.000.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0375.8675.860.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0390.9190.910.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0390.6290.620.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
FloridaSEC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
IowaB100.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
KentuckySEC0.020.02100.00100.000.020.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
MinnesotaB100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
NebraskaB100.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0264.7164.710.010.01
The CitadelSC0.020.0229.6329.63-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
UNLVMWC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
UtahP120.020.0274.1974.190.010.01