live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Nov 27, 2014.


Rider

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:226.0
Current RPI:257
Expected SOS:224
Current SOS:289
Current Record:2-3
Expected Record:13-16
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-6
Current OOC Record:2-3
Expected OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC RPI:199
Expected OOC SOS:277



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-757.00.01%
21-883.00.02%
20-997.10.10%
19-10115.20.32%
18-11127.41.17%
17-12144.13.13%
16-13161.06.04%
15-14180.010.02%
14-15200.013.92%
13-16219.217.22%
12-17239.216.86%
11-18259.713.61%
10-19276.79.52%
9-20293.04.97%
8-21306.92.02%
7-22316.80.76%
6-23326.10.21%
5-24331.10.07%
4-25344.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Rider.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Princeton (256.2)IvyA64-58L0%0.0
11-18Penn (317.0)IvyA57-73W100%0.0
11-21Lehigh (212.0)PatH78-74W100%0.0
11-24Kansas (20.0)B12A87-60L0%0.0
11-27Michigan St. (31.1)B10N45-77L0%0.0
12-3Central Connecticut (321.9)NECH0-079%9.5
12-7Siena (132.3)MAACH0-040%-3.2
12-10Iona (45.9)MAACA0-07%-17.9
12-13Hartford (205.9)AEA0-040%-3.0
12-18Morgan St. (284.6)MEACH0-069%6.1
12-29Wagner (239.4)NECA0-043%-2.2
1-2Marist (274.5)MAACA0-044%-2.0
1-5Fairfield (256.7)MAACA0-048%-0.5
1-10Saint Peter's (241.5)MAACH0-058%2.5
1-12Monmouth (182.1)MAACH0-049%-0.4
1-15Quinnipiac (167.7)MAACA0-025%-8.0
1-18Manhattan (202.9)MAACA0-028%-7.0
1-22Iona (45.9)MAACH0-019%-10.7
1-24Canisius (151.4)MAACH0-048%-0.7
1-29Saint Peter's (241.5)MAACA0-035%-4.7
2-2Siena (132.3)MAACA0-019%-10.3
2-5Fairfield (256.7)MAACH0-071%6.7
2-8Manhattan (202.9)MAACH0-051%0.2
2-13Canisius (151.4)MAACA0-026%-7.9
2-15Niagara (272.3)MAACA0-050%-0.0
2-19Quinnipiac (167.7)MAACH0-047%-0.8
2-21Niagara (272.3)MAACH0-072%7.2
2-26Monmouth (182.1)MAACA0-026%-7.5
3-1Marist (274.5)MAACH0-067%5.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Rider's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Rider's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Rider.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
RiderMAAC30.5026.4347.6244.25-1.45-3.04
MonmouthMAAC0.004.5950.0051.860.000.17
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.004.5620.0039.98-0.00-0.91
NiagaraMAAC0.004.5533.3329.61-0.00-1.86
QuinnipiacMAAC0.004.5550.0055.560.000.51
MaristMAAC0.004.5320.0033.29-0.00-1.51
FairfieldMAAC0.004.5240.0032.28-0.00-1.60
CanisiusMAAC1.004.5250.0052.020.000.18
ManhattanMAAC0.004.5225.0048.23-0.00-0.16
IonaMAAC0.004.5080.0078.900.002.60
SienaMAAC0.004.4933.3361.09-0.001.00
PennIvy10.001.990.0024.40-10.00-1.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.001.930.0031.03-0.00-0.73
HartfordAE0.001.9380.0051.410.000.05
WagnerNEC0.001.870.0044.47-0.00-0.21
PrincetonIvy10.001.840.0035.29-10.00-0.54
LehighPat10.001.8425.0043.37-5.00-0.24
Morgan St.MEAC0.001.7816.6739.91-0.00-0.36
KansasB1210.001.7266.6761.293.330.39
Michigan St.B1010.001.7275.0073.435.000.81
CornellIvy0.000.3042.8641.73-0.00-0.05
AlbanyAE0.000.3050.0063.340.000.08
VermontAE0.000.2750.0064.890.000.08
BucknellPat0.000.2433.3335.76-0.00-0.07
MassachusettsA100.000.2383.3366.830.000.08
YaleIvy0.000.2280.0070.930.000.09
BrownIvy0.000.2116.6730.56-0.00-0.08
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.2133.3338.66-0.00-0.05
RutgersB100.000.2050.0024.450.00-0.10
ColumbiaIvy1.000.1975.0065.610.500.06
LafayettePat2.250.1860.0061.400.450.04
Boston UniversityPat0.000.1825.0053.47-0.000.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.1840.0031.76-0.00-0.07
St. BonaventureA100.000.1875.0052.070.000.01
FordhamA100.000.170.0026.23-0.00-0.08
MarylandB100.000.17100.0071.310.000.07
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.170.0052.73-0.000.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.160.0036.65-0.00-0.04
Stony BrookAE0.000.1560.0068.620.000.06
BinghamtonAE0.000.150.0023.09-0.00-0.08
Holy CrossPat0.000.15100.0064.010.000.04
MaineAE0.000.150.0019.84-0.00-0.09
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.150.0044.60-0.00-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.1525.0033.76-0.00-0.05
St. Francis PANEC0.000.1525.0045.71-0.00-0.01
La SalleA100.000.15100.0056.910.000.02
George MasonA101.000.1520.0022.17-0.60-0.08
HarvardIvy0.000.1366.6773.130.000.06
NavyPat1.000.1220.0030.56-0.60-0.05
UMBCAE0.000.120.0027.48-0.00-0.05
ArmyPat0.000.12100.0069.590.000.05
BuffaloMAC0.000.1275.0064.570.000.03
PittsburghACC0.000.1260.0057.910.000.02
BryantNEC0.000.1233.3346.36-0.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.1225.0036.14-0.00-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1233.3347.83-0.00-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.1280.0067.100.000.04
Delaware St.MEAC1.250.1225.0039.20-0.62-0.02
West VirginiaB120.000.12100.0068.860.000.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.1180.0072.320.000.05
WoffordSC0.000.1180.0077.100.000.06
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.1120.0031.24-0.00-0.04
TowsonCAA0.000.1180.0057.880.000.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0925.0047.85-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0950.0036.580.00-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.0966.6751.440.000.00
DukeACC1.000.09100.0083.321.000.06
ElonCAA0.000.0940.0039.26-0.00-0.02
AmericanPat0.000.0666.6759.540.000.01
ColgatePat0.000.0620.0039.05-0.00-0.01
New HampshireAE0.000.0633.3346.25-0.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.000.0660.0041.750.00-0.01
VillanovaBE1.000.06100.0075.981.000.03
LibertyBSth0.000.0620.0029.36-0.00-0.03
Notre DameACC0.000.0683.3369.110.000.02
TempleAmer1.250.0660.0050.480.250.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.060.0036.05-0.00-0.02
BaylorB120.000.06100.0075.130.000.03
DavidsonA100.000.0666.6764.030.000.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0640.0038.97-0.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.06100.0067.700.000.02
IndianaB100.000.0680.0056.380.000.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0675.0061.130.000.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0650.0046.120.00-0.00
MichiganB100.000.0675.0066.060.000.02
NorthwesternB100.000.0683.3338.760.00-0.01
OklahomaB120.000.0680.0070.540.000.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.06100.0060.400.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0650.0042.750.00-0.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0625.0046.52-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.000.06100.0056.410.000.01
TCUB120.000.06100.0058.380.000.01
TexasB120.000.06100.0079.050.000.03
Texas TechB120.000.0675.0045.180.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0620.0042.43-0.00-0.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0660.0068.830.000.02
Penn St.B100.000.0683.3348.340.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.000.0680.0075.550.000.03
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0640.0038.03-0.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0028.02-0.00-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.000.060.0023.13-0.00-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.000.0616.6745.35-0.00-0.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0671.4356.020.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0614.2930.86-0.00-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0065.020.000.02
Seton HallBE0.000.06100.0063.120.000.02
South DakotaSum0.000.060.0038.79-0.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.060.0025.08-0.00-0.03
VMISC0.000.0625.0035.97-0.00-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.06100.0079.690.000.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0625.0049.53-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.000.0620.0036.57-0.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0660.0040.420.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0675.0039.180.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0650.0065.590.000.02
CaliforniaP120.000.0380.0070.550.000.01
Incarnate WordSlnd1.000.03100.0052.771.000.00
LipscombASun0.000.030.0043.66-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA1.000.03100.0069.211.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0360.0053.400.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.03100.0062.000.000.01
DePaulBE1.000.0366.6725.500.33-0.02
FIUCUSA0.000.0333.3337.71-0.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0375.0068.660.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.03100.0053.730.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0316.6732.00-0.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0052.530.000.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0360.0062.400.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0380.0063.370.000.01
IowaB100.000.0366.6765.220.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0375.0066.230.000.01
KentuckySEC1.250.03100.0089.471.250.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC1.000.0350.0042.050.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.000.0350.0055.020.000.00
NebraskaB100.000.0375.0052.330.000.00
OaklandHorz0.000.0316.6726.26-0.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.03100.0074.590.000.01
PurdueB100.000.0383.3368.400.000.01
Rhode IslandA101.250.0366.6756.430.420.00
Santa ClaraWCC1.000.0325.0037.88-0.50-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0041.21-0.00-0.01
The CitadelSC0.000.030.0028.25-0.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW1.250.0333.3364.43-0.420.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0375.0051.700.000.00
UtahP120.000.0375.0073.700.000.01
WisconsinB100.000.03100.0087.590.000.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0333.3337.74-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0019.02-0.00-0.02
HoustonAmer0.000.0366.6760.700.000.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0325.0045.04-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0360.0039.990.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0028.59-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.030.0067.79-0.000.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.03100.0077.870.000.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0071.260.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0340.0033.19-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0036.81-0.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0333.3366.19-0.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.030.0023.83-0.00-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0360.0035.980.00-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0375.0069.780.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0325.0035.86-0.00-0.01
NJITind0.000.0320.0030.12-0.00-0.01