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Through games of Nov 19, 2014.


Rider

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:186.4
Current RPI:294
Expected SOS:210
Current SOS:310
Current Record:1-1
Expected Record:15-14
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-5
Current OOC Record:1-1
Expected OOC Record:5-4
Expected OOC RPI:185
Expected OOC SOS:264



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-647.70.03%
22-762.80.12%
21-870.00.58%
20-986.81.54%
19-10103.03.49%
18-11121.76.12%
17-12142.110.60%
16-13160.614.81%
15-14180.915.90%
14-15200.215.93%
13-16220.112.67%
12-17238.39.01%
11-18257.35.21%
10-19272.92.44%
9-20288.71.10%
8-21305.60.31%
7-22320.00.10%
6-23330.00.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Rider.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Princeton (197.6)IvyA64-58L0%0.0
11-18Penn (311.2)IvyA57-73W100%0.0
11-21Lehigh (216.0)PatH0-068%5.5
11-24Kansas (21.7)B12A0-08%-16.7
11-27Michigan St. (30.5)B10N0-011%-14.6
12-3Central Connecticut (264.5)NECH0-076%8.4
12-7Siena (135.2)MAACH0-052%0.5
12-10Iona (113.4)MAACA0-027%-7.3
12-13Hartford (273.5)AEA0-059%2.6
12-18Morgan St. (265.6)MEACH0-076%8.4
12-29Wagner (253.1)NECA0-055%1.5
1-2Marist (231.4)MAACA0-045%-1.4
1-5Fairfield (204.7)MAACA0-046%-1.1
1-10Saint Peter's (267.0)MAACH0-073%7.5
1-12Monmouth (185.8)MAACH0-062%3.5
1-15Quinnipiac (180.7)MAACA0-035%-4.5
1-18Manhattan (153.5)MAACA0-029%-6.5
1-22Iona (113.4)MAACH0-050%-0.1
1-24Canisius (124.0)MAACH0-055%1.6
1-29Saint Peter's (267.0)MAACA0-051%0.3
2-2Siena (135.2)MAACA0-029%-6.7
2-5Fairfield (204.7)MAACH0-069%6.1
2-8Manhattan (153.5)MAACH0-052%0.7
2-13Canisius (124.0)MAACA0-032%-5.6
2-15Niagara (292.2)MAACA0-061%3.4
2-19Quinnipiac (180.7)MAACH0-059%2.7
2-21Niagara (292.2)MAACH0-081%10.6
2-26Monmouth (185.8)MAACA0-038%-3.7
3-1Marist (231.4)MAACH0-069%5.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Rider's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Rider's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Rider.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
RiderMAAC35.4226.4570.0052.2514.171.19
MonmouthMAAC0.004.600.0050.41-0.000.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.004.570.0035.03-0.00-1.37
NiagaraMAAC0.004.570.0028.14-0.00-2.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.004.5750.0055.460.000.50
FairfieldMAAC0.004.5450.0043.010.00-0.63
CanisiusMAAC0.004.53100.0058.020.000.73
MaristMAAC0.004.530.0042.24-0.00-0.70
ManhattanMAAC0.004.530.0056.16-0.000.56
IonaMAAC0.004.5150.0058.110.000.73
SienaMAAC0.004.5033.3359.08-0.000.82
PennIvy25.002.000.0025.96-25.00-0.96
Central ConnecticutNEC0.001.930.0045.27-0.00-0.18
HartfordAE0.001.9366.6741.780.00-0.32
WagnerNEC0.001.870.0041.91-0.00-0.30
PrincetonIvy25.001.840.0049.25-25.00-0.03
LehighPat0.001.840.0039.59-0.00-0.38
Morgan St.MEAC0.001.790.0040.92-0.00-0.32
KansasB120.001.7250.0061.320.000.39
Michigan St.B100.001.7250.0069.210.000.66
CornellIvy0.000.3066.6745.290.00-0.03
AlbanyAE0.000.3050.0061.920.000.07
VermontAE0.000.2750.0066.170.000.09
BucknellPat0.000.2450.0044.900.00-0.02
MassachusettsA100.000.24100.0062.520.000.06
YaleIvy0.000.220.0054.42-0.000.02
BrownIvy0.000.2133.3340.52-0.00-0.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.2150.0035.160.00-0.06
RutgersB100.000.2050.0034.720.00-0.06
ColumbiaIvy0.000.1950.0060.230.000.04
LafayettePat4.170.1866.6763.541.390.05
Boston UniversityPat0.000.1850.0054.740.000.02
Loyola MDPat0.000.1866.6740.290.00-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.000.1850.0050.920.000.00
FordhamA100.000.180.0033.46-0.00-0.06
MarylandB100.000.17100.0063.170.000.05
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.170.0055.40-0.000.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.160.0034.89-0.00-0.05
BinghamtonAE0.000.150.0036.33-0.00-0.04
Stony BrookAE0.000.1550.0063.480.000.04
Holy CrossPat0.000.15100.0061.100.000.03
MaineAE0.000.150.0023.08-0.00-0.08
George MasonA104.170.1550.0029.550.00-0.06
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.150.0043.78-0.00-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.15100.0042.320.00-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.000.150.0048.38-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.000.15100.0057.220.000.02
HarvardIvy0.000.130.0066.63-0.000.04
ArmyPat0.000.12100.0058.210.000.02
NavyPat0.000.120.0037.69-0.00-0.03
PittsburghACC0.000.12100.0058.110.000.02
UMBCAE0.000.120.0035.56-0.00-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.000.1266.6762.860.000.03
BryantNEC0.000.120.0049.65-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.12100.0072.380.000.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.120.0033.68-0.00-0.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1233.3337.80-0.00-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC6.250.1250.0043.320.00-0.02
West VirginiaB120.000.12100.0065.510.000.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.110.0044.27-0.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.000.1150.0044.540.00-0.01
WoffordSC0.000.1150.0066.170.000.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0933.3334.65-0.00-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.090.0044.59-0.00-0.01
ElonCAA0.000.0950.0037.260.00-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.0966.6746.880.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.09100.0086.240.000.06
AmericanPat0.000.0650.0054.340.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0650.0035.500.00-0.02
ColgatePat0.000.060.0038.80-0.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0650.0057.380.000.01
New HampshireAE0.000.060.0036.73-0.00-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.000.060.0029.73-0.00-0.02
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0070.240.000.02
VMISC0.000.0650.0044.590.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.06100.0072.850.000.03
TempleAmer0.000.06100.0057.520.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.060.0045.63-0.00-0.01
BaylorB120.000.06100.0070.300.000.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0028.57-0.00-0.03
DavidsonA100.000.06100.0049.680.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.060.0058.77-0.000.01
IllinoisB100.000.06100.0062.310.000.01
IndianaB100.000.06100.0058.740.000.01
Iowa St.B120.000.06100.0063.940.000.02
Kansas St.B120.000.06100.0062.480.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0633.3331.18-0.00-0.02
MichiganB100.000.06100.0070.350.000.02
NorthwesternB100.000.06100.0046.590.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.000.0650.0060.110.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.06100.0044.710.00-0.01
Penn St.B100.000.06100.0049.040.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.000.060.0043.54-0.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.06100.0054.470.000.01
TCUB120.000.06100.0054.080.000.00
TexasB120.000.06100.0069.850.000.02
Texas TechB120.000.0650.0046.310.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.000.0650.0059.230.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.06100.0052.320.000.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0650.0061.660.000.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0650.0071.270.000.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.06100.0069.180.000.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.060.0061.66-0.000.01
Seton HallBE0.000.06100.0055.080.000.01
South DakotaSum0.000.060.0035.74-0.00-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.060.0029.46-0.00-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.06100.0075.270.000.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0650.0052.010.000.00
DrexelCAA0.000.060.0041.49-0.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0650.0051.340.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.06100.0047.330.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.000.0650.0071.330.000.02
CaliforniaP120.000.03100.0059.680.000.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.030.0041.37-0.00-0.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0350.0044.410.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.000.030.0041.18-0.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.03100.0072.000.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.03100.0055.300.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.03100.0066.070.000.01
DePaulBE0.000.03100.0040.670.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.03100.0044.320.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.03100.0057.940.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.030.0051.34-0.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0333.3337.15-0.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0333.3345.39-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0051.090.000.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0350.0070.050.000.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0020.22-0.00-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.03100.0066.640.000.01
HoustonAmer0.000.03100.0065.500.000.01
HowardMEAC0.000.030.0037.97-0.00-0.01
IowaB100.000.03100.0068.180.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.03100.0059.950.000.01
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0087.640.000.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.030.0034.13-0.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0350.0056.060.000.00
MinnesotaB100.000.0350.0064.150.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.03100.0053.420.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0024.20-0.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.030.0069.80-0.000.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.03100.0066.000.000.01
OaklandHorz0.000.030.0035.06-0.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.03100.0076.260.000.02
PurdueB100.000.03100.0052.910.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.03100.0054.620.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0068.320.000.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0350.0046.500.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.030.0031.94-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0029.13-0.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0039.95-0.00-0.01
The CitadelSC0.000.030.0028.32-0.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0350.0063.980.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.030.0028.31-0.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.030.0055.53-0.000.00
UNLVMWC0.000.03100.0056.650.000.00
UtahP120.000.0350.0063.990.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.03100.0044.510.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.000.03100.0083.870.000.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.03100.0073.010.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.030.0034.49-0.00-0.01
NJITind0.000.0333.3329.39-0.00-0.01