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Through games of Dec 20, 2014.


Rider

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:192.6
Current RPI:174
Expected SOS:259
Current SOS:202
Current Record:6-6
Expected Record:17-14
Current Conf Record:1-1
Expected Conf Record:11-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-6
Current OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:179
Expected OOC SOS:261



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-887.30.06%
22-9101.80.31%
21-10117.21.58%
20-11133.14.50%
19-12148.79.16%
18-13165.015.23%
17-14182.218.81%
16-15200.119.35%
15-16219.014.76%
14-17237.79.73%
13-18256.74.18%
12-19273.01.67%
11-20287.50.52%
10-21301.30.12%
9-22308.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Rider.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Princeton (217.2)IvyA64-58L0%0.0
11-18Penn (270.6)IvyA57-73W100%0.0
11-21Lehigh (147.2)PatH78-74W100%0.0
11-24Kansas (6.8)B12A87-60L0%0.0
11-27Michigan St. (39.9)B10N45-77L0%0.0
11-28Georgia Tech (80.2)ACCN61-54L0%0.0
11-30Santa Clara (220.9)WCCN60-68L0%0.0
12-3Central Connecticut (318.3)NECH69-56W100%0.0
12-7Siena (211.1)MAACH80-68W100%0.0
12-10Iona (95.6)MAACA77-64L0%0.0
12-13Hartford (215.6)AEA61-63W100%0.0
12-18Morgan St. (305.7)MEACH62-48W100%0.0
12-29Wagner (285.5)NECA0-057%2.2
1-2Marist (333.7)MAACA0-071%6.6
1-5Fairfield (257.7)MAACA0-054%1.1
1-10Saint Peter's (222.9)MAACH0-062%3.5
1-12Monmouth (172.4)MAACH0-056%1.8
1-15Quinnipiac (222.2)MAACA0-037%-3.8
1-18Manhattan (287.3)MAACA0-047%-0.9
1-22Iona (95.6)MAACH0-040%-2.9
1-24Canisius (127.0)MAACH0-054%1.3
1-29Saint Peter's (222.9)MAACA0-034%-4.9
2-2Siena (211.1)MAACA0-035%-4.6
2-5Fairfield (257.7)MAACH0-079%9.5
2-8Manhattan (287.3)MAACH0-074%7.4
2-13Canisius (127.0)MAACA0-027%-7.1
2-15Niagara (279.6)MAACA0-057%2.1
2-19Quinnipiac (222.2)MAACH0-065%4.5
2-21Niagara (279.6)MAACH0-082%10.5
2-26Monmouth (172.4)MAACA0-029%-6.5
3-1Marist (333.7)MAACH0-090%15.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Rider's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Rider's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Rider.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
RiderMAAC27.5226.3952.0055.151.102.72
MonmouthMAAC0.424.2950.0058.430.000.72
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.384.2636.3647.90-0.10-0.18
NiagaraMAAC0.214.2612.5029.42-0.16-1.75
QuinnipiacMAAC0.674.2644.4450.73-0.070.06
MaristMAAC0.264.239.0915.93-0.21-2.88
FairfieldMAAC0.214.2340.0037.94-0.04-1.02
CanisiusMAAC0.234.2355.5662.370.031.05
ManhattanMAAC0.174.2230.0037.88-0.07-1.02
IonaMAAC4.174.2155.5668.470.461.55
SienaMAAC4.174.2037.5050.80-1.040.07
PennIvy4.171.8642.8633.84-0.60-0.60
Central ConnecticutNEC4.381.8122.2228.20-2.43-0.79
HartfordAE4.381.8055.5652.490.490.09
WagnerNEC0.261.7512.5030.12-0.20-0.69
LehighPat4.171.7250.0056.060.000.21
PrincetonIvy4.171.7227.2738.91-1.89-0.38
Morgan St.MEAC4.171.6718.1836.49-2.65-0.45
Michigan St.B104.611.6763.6466.211.260.54
KansasB124.341.6488.8969.703.380.65
Santa ClaraWCC4.341.6437.5034.46-1.09-0.51
Georgia TechACC4.171.6177.7851.652.310.05
AlbanyAE0.230.2840.0055.01-0.050.03
CornellIvy0.000.2855.5648.710.00-0.01
VermontAE0.440.2544.4457.69-0.050.04
BucknellPat0.000.2240.0036.66-0.00-0.06
MassachusettsA100.230.2254.5552.490.020.01
YaleIvy0.210.2066.6761.820.070.05
BrownIvy0.000.1940.0033.80-0.00-0.06
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.170.1937.5039.65-0.04-0.04
RutgersB100.000.1954.5532.590.00-0.06
ColumbiaIvy0.230.1766.6767.930.080.06
LafayettePat0.640.1766.6767.650.210.06
Loyola MDPat0.230.1733.3328.13-0.08-0.07
St. BonaventureA100.230.1777.7865.110.130.05
Boston UniversityPat0.000.1730.0041.69-0.00-0.03
FordhamA100.230.1628.5727.11-0.10-0.07
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.1630.0043.15-0.00-0.02
MarylandB100.210.1690.9168.230.170.06
BinghamtonAE0.260.140.0011.24-0.26-0.11
DartmouthIvy0.210.1450.0046.690.00-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.210.1457.1453.770.030.01
MaineAE0.000.1411.1120.80-0.00-0.08
Stony BrookAE0.170.1433.3355.24-0.060.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.230.1433.3345.04-0.08-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.210.1455.5660.980.020.03
St. Francis PANEC0.230.1455.5665.210.030.04
NortheasternCAA0.230.1470.0060.920.090.03
PittsburghACC0.000.1470.0051.780.000.00
La SalleA100.000.1454.5552.730.000.01
George MasonA100.380.1433.3330.21-0.13-0.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.170.1354.5559.560.020.03
Wake ForestACC0.210.1345.4537.60-0.02-0.03
HarvardIvy0.000.1185.7172.910.000.05
NavyPat0.430.1120.0022.16-0.26-0.06
UMBCAE0.210.1118.1825.30-0.13-0.06
ArmyPat0.000.1177.7868.780.000.04
BuffaloMAC0.000.1177.7870.890.000.05
BryantNEC0.000.1128.5745.89-0.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.1133.3341.20-0.00-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1130.0039.59-0.00-0.02
Notre DameACC0.170.1191.6777.120.140.06
Delaware St.MEAC0.470.1136.3646.72-0.13-0.01
DukeACC0.170.11100.0087.090.170.08
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.1177.7870.160.000.04
WoffordSC0.210.1177.7875.550.120.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.210.1018.1830.76-0.13-0.04
TowsonCAA0.380.1060.0047.170.08-0.01
West VirginiaB120.000.1090.9170.080.000.04
San DiegoWCC0.170.0954.5557.570.020.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0862.5058.080.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0860.0043.160.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0854.5541.980.00-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.650.0866.6773.310.220.04
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0866.6742.600.00-0.01
ElonCAA0.170.0844.4451.07-0.020.00
MarquetteBE0.380.0860.0048.980.08-0.00
NorthwesternB100.210.0863.6442.810.06-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.0663.6463.240.000.02
BYUWCC0.000.0670.0068.340.000.02
ColgatePat0.000.0620.0042.59-0.00-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.0690.9190.540.000.05
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0625.0023.40-0.00-0.03
New HampshireAE0.000.0650.0060.410.000.01
PacificWCC0.000.0655.5638.270.00-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.0666.6755.670.000.01
PortlandWCC0.000.0670.0051.040.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0650.0054.170.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.000.0650.0050.490.000.00
VillanovaBE0.230.06100.0082.970.230.04
San Jose St.MWC0.410.060.008.00-0.41-0.05
VanderbiltSEC0.210.0666.6758.210.070.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0642.8648.87-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.000.0688.8977.320.000.03
Oregon St.P120.000.0677.7856.220.000.01
RadfordBSth0.230.0655.5658.650.030.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0688.8965.170.000.02
UMKCWAC0.000.0620.0040.84-0.00-0.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0570.0076.180.000.03
TempleAmer0.260.0563.6456.430.070.01
TennesseeSEC0.440.0555.5646.290.05-0.00
LibertyBSth0.170.0525.0035.39-0.09-0.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0563.6464.880.000.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0560.0043.890.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.050.0014.00-0.00-0.04
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0527.2729.17-0.00-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.170.0545.4549.62-0.02-0.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0566.6754.470.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0538.4644.61-0.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0572.7374.850.000.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0555.5673.740.000.03
South DakotaSum0.000.0527.2738.30-0.00-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.170.0560.0038.030.03-0.01
VMISC0.000.0533.3338.93-0.00-0.01
Penn St.B100.170.0591.6755.310.140.01
ArkansasSEC0.210.0580.0072.200.120.02
BaylorB120.000.0590.0073.240.000.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.210.0533.3349.35-0.07-0.00
DrexelCAA0.000.0522.2235.90-0.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.0575.0065.140.000.02
IndianaB100.000.0581.8263.330.000.01
Indiana St.MVC0.210.0530.0029.75-0.08-0.02
Iowa St.B120.000.0590.0065.480.000.02
Kansas St.B120.000.0563.6440.190.00-0.01
MichiganB100.000.0550.0040.450.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.210.0542.8636.81-0.03-0.01
OklahomaB120.000.0570.0062.710.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0588.8963.020.000.01
Seton HallBE0.000.0590.0067.380.000.02
SMUAmer0.000.0572.7375.710.000.03
TCUB120.000.05100.0067.700.000.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.050.0015.00-0.00-0.04
TexasB120.000.0590.9179.980.000.03
Texas TechB120.000.0590.0055.360.000.01
Arizona St.P120.230.0354.5548.490.02-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.000.0337.5041.94-0.00-0.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.230.0336.3637.85-0.06-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0370.0064.680.000.01
DePaulBE0.230.0360.0034.160.05-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0344.4450.41-0.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0370.0061.320.000.01
Utah St.MWC0.230.0354.5548.260.02-0.00
Washington St.P120.230.0340.0028.13-0.05-0.01
CaliforniaP120.170.0390.9169.030.140.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.170.0380.0076.450.100.01
LipscombASun0.170.0322.2238.44-0.10-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.170.0360.0071.280.030.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.210.030.0028.43-0.21-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.210.0337.5034.64-0.05-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0318.1822.49-0.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0354.5564.070.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0380.0069.770.000.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0011.94-0.00-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.210.0362.5059.050.050.00
HoustonAmer0.170.0362.5041.790.04-0.00
HowardMEAC0.000.0330.0043.74-0.00-0.00
IPFWSum0.210.0350.0054.190.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0084.930.000.02
Miami FLACC0.000.0381.8266.010.000.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0023.69-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0350.0071.260.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0375.0061.480.000.01
Northern IowaMVC0.170.0390.9183.090.140.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0318.1827.33-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0327.2735.36-0.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0360.0058.120.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.170.0337.5046.38-0.04-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.0350.0043.310.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.210.0363.6467.210.060.01
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0086.080.000.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.170.0318.1837.71-0.11-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0350.0058.070.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.210.0333.3337.91-0.07-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.170.0375.0066.220.090.01
FloridaSEC0.210.0363.6465.220.060.01
GeorgetownBE0.210.0370.0059.220.080.00
IowaB100.000.0366.6759.420.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.0375.0058.160.000.00
KentuckySEC0.210.03100.0096.290.210.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.170.0375.0058.760.090.00
MinnesotaB100.000.0380.0067.830.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0366.6744.720.00-0.00
NJITind0.210.0341.6743.68-0.03-0.00
OaklandHorz0.170.0327.2732.45-0.08-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0381.8282.250.000.02
PurdueB100.000.0366.6759.370.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.170.0320.0052.97-0.100.00
The CitadelSC0.000.0314.2932.16-0.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.210.0337.5063.95-0.050.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0366.6749.560.00-0.00
UtahP120.210.0380.0080.520.120.02
WisconsinB100.000.0390.9188.840.000.02