live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Jan 20, 2017.


Rider

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:190.5
Current RPI:201
Expected SOS:282
Current SOS:329
Current Record:11-8
Expected Record:16-15
Current Conf Record:4-4
Expected Conf Record:9-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-5
Current OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:173
Expected OOC SOS:348



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-892.00.01%
22-9108.50.04%
21-10122.10.41%
20-11136.02.02%
19-12150.27.31%
18-13165.214.98%
17-14181.022.48%
16-15197.123.90%
15-16213.217.56%
14-17227.78.05%
13-18241.72.82%
12-19255.90.37%
11-20270.80.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Rider.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Hampton (307.5)MEACA56-67W100%0.0
11-16Hartford (317.9)AEA68-84W100%0.0
11-19South Florida (285.2)AmerA70-65L0%0.0
11-23Fordham (234.6)A10A73-62L0%0.0
11-26Wagner (259.6)NECA67-70W100%0.0
12-1Fairfield (190.8)MAACH67-76L0%0.0
12-5Siena (166.1)MAACH71-69W100%0.0
12-10Pacific (211.7)WCCA66-73W100%0.0
12-14Kennesaw St. (300.0)ASunH81-79W100%0.0
12-16Drexel (248.9)CAAH90-82W100%0.0
12-18North Carolina A&T (348.7)MEACA59-60W100%0.0
12-22Massachusetts (100.9)A10A78-67L0%0.0
12-28North Carolina St. (91.8)ACCA99-71L0%0.0
12-31Monmouth (58.2)MAACA90-93W100%0.0
1-6Marist (262.0)MAACA62-73W100%0.0
1-8Niagara (299.7)MAACH89-78W100%0.0
1-13Manhattan (240.1)MAACA76-73L0%0.0
1-15Saint Peter's (147.9)MAACH65-71L0%0.0
1-17Siena (166.1)MAACA78-68L0%0.0
1-21Marist (262.0)MAACH0-079%9.0
1-23Saint Peter's (147.9)MAACA0-029%-6.2
1-28Niagara (299.7)MAACA0-053%0.8
1-30Canisius (121.1)MAACA0-027%-6.9
2-3Iona (95.6)MAACH0-039%-3.0
2-6Monmouth (58.2)MAACH0-033%-4.9
2-11Quinnipiac (225.5)MAACH0-067%4.8
2-13Fairfield (190.8)MAACA0-036%-4.1
2-17Canisius (121.1)MAACH0-047%-0.7
2-19Iona (95.6)MAACA0-020%-9.2
2-22Manhattan (240.1)MAACH0-067%4.9
2-26Quinnipiac (225.5)MAACA0-045%-1.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Rider's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Rider's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Rider.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
RiderMAAC26.5026.3665.5957.838.264.13
MonmouthMAAC3.064.2378.9577.271.772.31
NiagaraMAAC3.174.2327.7828.01-1.41-1.86
QuinnipiacMAAC0.614.2342.1141.57-0.10-0.71
FairfieldMAAC3.194.2343.7547.50-0.40-0.21
ManhattanMAAC3.064.2031.5834.23-1.13-1.33
Saint Peter'sMAAC3.184.2052.9454.690.190.39
CanisiusMAAC0.484.1860.0061.150.100.93
IonaMAAC0.504.1860.0062.660.101.06
MaristMAAC2.904.1833.3330.53-0.97-1.63
SienaMAAC5.634.1838.8944.84-1.25-0.43
DrexelCAA2.831.8035.2934.91-0.83-0.54
MassachusettsA102.931.7561.1159.070.650.32
WagnerNEC2.841.7540.0049.45-0.57-0.02
HartfordAE2.771.7531.5829.49-1.02-0.72
FordhamA102.771.7435.2933.02-0.81-0.59
North Carolina A&TMEAC2.931.730.0014.96-2.93-1.21
Kennesaw St.ASun2.921.7229.4134.19-1.20-0.54
PacificWCC2.851.7038.8936.89-0.63-0.44
North Carolina St.ACC2.711.6766.6750.590.900.02
South FloridaAmer2.701.6431.2526.43-1.01-0.77
HamptonMEAC2.711.6428.5741.77-1.16-0.27
St. Francis NYNEC0.210.2415.7920.51-0.14-0.14
St. BonaventureA100.340.2366.6762.870.110.06
VermontAE0.270.2175.0077.360.130.11
AlbanyAE0.200.2152.6358.980.010.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.230.1941.1846.85-0.04-0.01
DelawareCAA0.220.1933.3330.90-0.07-0.07
Holy CrossPat0.200.1850.0051.660.000.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.300.1740.0040.81-0.06-0.03
UMass LowellAE0.290.1640.0040.47-0.06-0.03
BucknellPat0.270.1670.0071.890.110.07
HofstraCAA0.200.1642.1143.49-0.03-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.280.1647.0646.29-0.02-0.01
BrownIvy0.140.1647.0642.91-0.01-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.1418.7535.73-0.04-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.230.1437.5044.55-0.06-0.02
LipscombASun0.220.1444.4450.48-0.020.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.220.1463.1660.780.060.03
JacksonvilleASun0.150.1452.9450.590.010.00
ElonCAA0.220.1450.0051.340.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.210.1321.4323.06-0.12-0.07
TempleAmer0.140.1350.0053.120.000.01
La SalleA100.070.1368.7564.060.030.04
George WashingtonA100.210.1352.6348.070.01-0.01
RutgersB100.280.1355.5642.900.03-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.140.1350.0053.030.000.01
DuquesneA100.070.1347.3741.47-0.00-0.02
NevadaMWC0.070.1384.2178.680.050.08
Rhode IslandA100.140.1364.7167.120.040.04
Florida St.ACC0.070.1389.4779.540.050.08
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.150.1212.5024.37-0.11-0.06
Florida A&MMEAC0.150.1212.5019.98-0.11-0.07
East CarolinaAmer0.240.1147.3741.50-0.01-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.220.1111.1116.28-0.17-0.08
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.1114.2929.27-0.05-0.05
RichmondA100.160.1161.1157.870.040.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.200.1164.7169.850.060.04
NJITASun0.000.1138.8942.49-0.00-0.02
ArmyPat0.140.1138.8942.65-0.03-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.210.1147.3734.50-0.01-0.03
MemphisAmer0.140.1173.6867.200.070.04
TowsonCAA0.000.1152.6354.610.000.01
Notre DameACC0.150.1184.2176.540.100.06
GonzagaWCC0.070.11100.0097.320.070.10
Tennessee St.OVC0.140.1158.8261.440.030.02
North TexasCUSA0.210.1125.0029.15-0.10-0.04
MaineAE0.070.1120.0020.95-0.04-0.06
DavidsonA100.140.1152.9453.560.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.070.1037.5044.96-0.02-0.01
CornellIvy0.200.1020.0024.53-0.12-0.05
North CarolinaACC0.140.1084.2180.600.090.06
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.1036.8433.59-0.02-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.170.0935.0039.76-0.05-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0922.2225.60-0.04-0.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.0925.0031.85-0.04-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.170.0917.6529.60-0.11-0.04
HowardMEAC0.000.0912.5028.49-0.00-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0912.5033.82-0.06-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.090.0960.0072.810.020.04
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0935.2941.77-0.02-0.01
PennIvy0.150.0842.8647.98-0.02-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.220.0828.5731.47-0.10-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.150.0860.0066.110.030.03
Stony BrookAE0.150.0855.5654.430.020.01
WinthropBSth0.150.0875.0075.420.080.04
UCFAmer0.150.0877.7867.020.080.03
LafayettePat0.150.0829.4123.71-0.06-0.04
UMBCAE0.140.0862.5058.830.030.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0827.7824.32-0.00-0.04
Georgia TechACC0.150.0861.1147.020.03-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.140.0882.3574.990.090.04
George MasonA100.070.0864.7156.510.020.01
DukeACC0.070.0877.7873.860.040.04
SyracuseACC0.070.0857.8952.520.010.00
BryantNEC0.080.0621.0533.56-0.05-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0640.0050.05-0.020.00
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0635.2944.13-0.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.090.0646.6747.54-0.01-0.00
North FloridaASun0.070.0623.5331.23-0.04-0.02
StetsonASun0.070.0629.4130.28-0.03-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.000.0652.9451.300.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.150.0665.0055.280.050.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0688.8986.560.000.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0673.6869.690.000.02
James MadisonCAA0.070.0626.3229.57-0.03-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.080.0647.0646.22-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.150.0663.1659.530.040.01
TulaneAmer0.080.0622.2220.60-0.04-0.03
TulsaAmer0.000.0658.8251.180.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0688.8986.040.060.04
BYUWCC0.070.0570.0068.710.030.02
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0546.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.0528.5741.77-0.03-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0533.3335.90-0.00-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0547.0644.32-0.00-0.01
MarylandB100.070.0588.8973.830.060.03
PepperdineWCC0.070.0522.2221.17-0.04-0.03
PortlandWCC0.070.0547.0640.46-0.00-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0588.8987.310.050.04
San DiegoWCC0.070.0550.0043.680.00-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0563.1660.550.020.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0547.3745.83-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.000.0566.6758.230.000.01
DaytonA100.070.0576.4776.940.040.03
HarvardIvy0.140.0558.3361.560.020.01
VCUA100.140.0573.6870.630.070.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.130.0517.6524.51-0.09-0.03
BinghamtonAE0.000.0535.2937.32-0.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0526.3232.63-0.00-0.02
DetroitHorz0.070.0516.6723.07-0.04-0.03
DrakeMVC0.000.0529.4127.72-0.00-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0531.5832.58-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0561.1163.070.020.01
KansasB120.130.0594.4481.800.120.03
Kent St.MAC0.070.0547.0648.10-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.000.0588.8987.510.000.04
Miami FLACC0.070.0570.5960.550.030.01
New HampshireAE0.000.0556.2558.170.000.01
OhioMAC0.000.0566.6767.550.000.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0557.8957.540.000.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0513.3327.07-0.00-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.130.0561.1169.300.030.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.0561.1155.580.000.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0550.0061.630.000.01
West VirginiaB120.070.0583.3380.700.040.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.090.0341.1849.23-0.02-0.00
Kansas St.B120.090.0377.7862.260.050.01
AmericanPat0.080.0327.7830.73-0.04-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0318.7527.90-0.05-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0375.0074.870.040.01
IowaB100.070.0355.0049.300.01-0.00
MercerSC0.070.0333.3343.06-0.02-0.00
MichiganB100.070.0363.1658.150.020.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0320.0026.44-0.05-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.0325.0029.54-0.04-0.01
High PointBSth0.070.0337.5042.27-0.02-0.00
HoustonAmer0.080.0368.4268.060.030.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0364.7162.600.020.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0360.0053.460.020.00
SMUAmer0.080.0380.0077.810.050.02
TroySB0.080.0347.0648.13-0.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0370.5964.080.030.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0347.3745.06-0.00-0.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.070.0337.5037.69-0.02-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.070.0370.5973.700.030.01
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0358.8254.690.010.00
Green BayHorz0.070.0352.9450.950.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.070.0320.0024.21-0.04-0.01
St. John'sBE0.070.0345.0038.54-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.070.0352.6360.240.000.01
UCLAP120.070.0395.0089.690.060.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0368.7570.270.030.01
WyomingMWC0.070.0364.7157.710.020.00
ClemsonACC0.000.0361.1159.230.000.00
CreightonBE0.070.0394.4484.720.060.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0362.5060.090.020.01
Georgia St.SB0.070.0353.3355.990.000.00
IllinoisB100.070.0361.1153.360.020.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.0384.2179.280.000.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0361.1159.670.020.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0328.5733.61-0.03-0.01
MississippiSEC0.070.0361.1155.030.020.00
MontanaBSky0.070.0350.0058.290.000.00
NavyPat0.070.0344.4446.61-0.01-0.00
PittsburghACC0.070.0363.1651.610.020.00
VirginiaACC0.000.0382.3576.300.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.070.0377.7862.530.040.01
YaleIvy0.070.0360.0065.720.010.01