Rider

Conference:	MAAC
Expected RPI:	213.8
Current RPI:	219
Expected SOS:	158
Current SOS:	177
Current Record:	9-15
Expected Record:	12-19
Current Conf Record:	6-6
Expected Conf Record:	9-9
Probability of Auto Bid:	1.20%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	10-4
Current OOC Record:	3-9
Expected OOC Record:	3-10
Expected OOC RPI:	237
Expected OOC SOS:	139

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
16-15	149.8	0.16%
15-16	165.4	1.56%
14-17	182.5	8.97%
13-18	198.2	21.31%
12-19	213.2	31.28%
11-20	227.8	24.64%
10-21	242.7	10.62%
9-22	257.5	1.45%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Rider.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Robert Morris (111.2)	NEC	A	83-57	L	0%	0.0
11-13	Pittsburgh (74.5)	BE	A	86-78	L	0%	0.0
11-15	Drexel (79.2)	CAA	H	62-80	L	0%	0.0
11-17	Pennsylvania (113.9)	Ivy	H	72-78	L	0%	0.0
11-21	Howard (313.9)	MEAC	H	74-72	W	100%	0.0
11-25	James Madison (251.6)	CAA	N	69-86	L	0%	0.0
11-26	La Salle (69.1)	A10	A	82-70	L	0%	0.0
12-2	Manhattan (115.3)	MAAC	H	55-71	L	0%	0.0
12-4	Marist (276.6)	MAAC	A	95-75	L	0%	0.0
12-9	Florida (14.9)	SEC	N	90-69	L	0%	0.0
12-14	Princeton (117.6)	Ivy	H	71-72	L	0%	0.0
12-17	MD Baltimore County (332.6)	AE	A	66-73	W	100%	0.0
12-22	Monmouth (275.8)	NEC	A	62-74	W	100%	0.0
12-30	Stony Brook (154.7)	AE	A	79-62	L	0%	0.0
1-2	Manhattan (115.3)	MAAC	A	77-88	W	100%	0.0
1-6	Marist (276.6)	MAAC	H	99-86	W	100%	0.0
1-8	St. Peter's (280.4)	MAAC	A	58-72	W	100%	0.0
1-12	Siena (226.0)	MAAC	A	83-79	L	0%	0.0
1-16	Fairfield (138.4)	MAAC	A	61-52	L	0%	0.0
1-20	Iona (46.0)	MAAC	A	91-71	L	0%	0.0
1-22	Canisius (322.0)	MAAC	H	89-65	W	100%	0.0
1-26	St. Peter's (280.4)	MAAC	H	90-55	W	100%	0.0
1-29	Siena (226.0)	MAAC	H	83-72	W	100%	0.0
2-3	Loyola MD (83.9)	MAAC	A	63-46	L	0%	0.0
2-5	Niagara (208.7)	MAAC	H	0-0		62%	3.3
2-9	Canisius (322.0)	MAAC	A	0-0		68%	5.0
2-11	Niagara (208.7)	MAAC	A	0-0		38%	-3.5
2-15	Iona (46.0)	MAAC	H	0-0		17%	-10.4
2-18	Albany (208.3)	AE	A	0-0		33%	-4.8
2-24	Loyola MD (83.9)	MAAC	H	0-0		37%	-3.5
2-26	Fairfield (138.4)	MAAC	H	0-0		39%	-3.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Rider's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Rider's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Rider.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Rider	MAAC	26.45	26.33	39.81	39.75	-5.39	-5.40
Niagara	MAAC	0.85	4.16	37.50	40.94	-0.21	-0.75
Siena	MAAC	4.81	4.15	45.00	45.22	-0.48	-0.40
Canisius	MAAC	2.85	4.15	18.18	20.08	-1.81	-2.48
Manhattan	MAAC	4.81	4.13	69.57	70.39	1.88	1.68
St. Peter's	MAAC	4.80	4.12	23.81	26.34	-2.51	-1.95
Loyola MD	MAAC	2.77	4.12	76.19	72.87	1.45	1.89
Iona	MAAC	2.81	4.10	78.26	79.29	1.59	2.40
Fairfield	MAAC	2.67	4.07	52.38	52.37	0.13	0.19
Marist	MAAC	4.79	4.06	33.33	32.20	-1.60	-1.45
MD Baltimore County	AE	2.23	1.91	14.29	16.94	-1.59	-1.27
Pennsylvania	Ivy	2.53	1.91	52.38	55.40	0.12	0.21
Albany	AE	0.38	1.84	60.00	60.21	0.08	0.37
Robert Morris	NEC	2.43	1.82	66.67	69.03	0.81	0.69
Drexel	CAA	2.19	1.80	78.26	77.35	1.24	0.99
James Madison	CAA	2.26	1.80	37.50	38.19	-0.57	-0.43
Princeton	Ivy	2.27	1.75	44.44	51.12	-0.25	0.04
Stony Brook	AE	2.13	1.72	65.00	66.82	0.64	0.58
La Salle	A10	2.26	1.72	69.57	67.78	0.88	0.61
Pittsburgh	BE	2.22	1.72	59.09	56.76	0.40	0.23
Monmouth	NEC	2.17	1.69	29.17	29.87	-0.90	-0.68
Florida	SEC	2.08	1.61	81.82	76.89	1.33	0.87
Howard	MEAC	2.08	1.61	19.05	23.04	-1.29	-0.87
Vermont	AE	0.33	0.38	60.00	62.49	0.07	0.10
Binghamton	AE	0.41	0.36	0.00	4.02	-0.41	-0.33
Hartford	AE	0.23	0.35	17.39	20.97	-0.15	-0.21
New Hampshire	AE	0.28	0.33	35.00	38.58	-0.08	-0.08
Hofstra	CAA	0.25	0.27	32.00	35.39	-0.09	-0.08
Boston University	AE	0.19	0.25	48.00	51.88	-0.01	0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.33	0.25	55.00	54.80	0.03	0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.19	0.24	60.00	59.06	0.04	0.04
Maine	AE	0.14	0.22	50.00	49.73	0.00	-0.00
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.23	0.22	26.09	28.60	-0.11	-0.09
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.22	0.21	8.70	12.13	-0.18	-0.16
Brown	Ivy	0.23	0.21	27.27	23.80	-0.10	-0.11
Towson	CAA	0.26	0.21	4.00	5.26	-0.24	-0.19
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.17	0.21	21.74	22.76	-0.10	-0.11
Buffalo	MAC	0.19	0.19	68.42	66.45	0.07	0.06
William & Mary	CAA	0.22	0.19	12.50	13.44	-0.16	-0.14
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.13	0.19	56.52	57.15	0.02	0.03
Long Island	NEC	0.22	0.19	70.83	71.05	0.09	0.08
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.17	0.18	45.45	45.70	-0.02	-0.02
George Mason	CAA	0.25	0.18	76.00	72.50	0.13	0.08
Bucknell	Pat	0.24	0.17	73.91	75.00	0.11	0.08
Cornell	Ivy	0.15	0.17	36.84	41.45	-0.04	-0.03
Rutgers	BE	0.28	0.16	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.23	0.16	47.83	48.56	-0.01	-0.00
Old Dominion	CAA	0.18	0.16	60.00	58.29	0.04	0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.14	0.16	95.83	92.57	0.13	0.14
Delaware	CAA	0.27	0.16	47.83	50.65	-0.01	0.00
Fordham	A10	0.22	0.16	40.91	34.50	-0.04	-0.05
Wagner	NEC	0.23	0.16	82.61	84.57	0.15	0.11
Harvard	Ivy	0.04	0.14	90.48	87.91	0.03	0.10
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.00	0.14	14.29	17.17	-0.00	-0.09
Yale	Ivy	0.15	0.14	72.22	63.19	0.07	0.04
George Washington	A10	0.13	0.13	34.78	32.08	-0.04	-0.05
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.13	0.13	56.52	55.95	0.02	0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.18	0.13	62.50	62.49	0.04	0.03
Syracuse	BE	0.17	0.13	95.83	92.01	0.16	0.11
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.09	0.11	42.11	49.81	-0.01	-0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.09	0.11	26.32	28.83	-0.04	-0.05
Hampton	MEAC	0.18	0.11	36.36	38.48	-0.05	-0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.14	0.11	69.57	61.31	0.05	0.02
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.13	0.11	44.00	45.89	-0.02	-0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.14	0.11	73.91	68.58	0.07	0.04
Navy	Pat	0.14	0.11	9.52	13.19	-0.11	-0.08
South Florida	BE	0.09	0.11	54.55	48.60	0.01	-0.00
Lafayette	Pat	0.19	0.11	43.48	42.95	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia St.	CAA	0.13	0.11	66.67	69.69	0.04	0.04
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.09	0.10	39.13	36.10	-0.02	-0.03
Villanova	BE	0.13	0.10	45.45	46.08	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.14	0.09	75.00	75.78	0.07	0.04
Army	Pat	0.13	0.08	40.91	41.72	-0.02	-0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.09	0.08	30.43	29.50	-0.04	-0.03
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.08	68.18	63.99	0.02	0.02
Dayton	A10	0.09	0.08	60.87	60.96	0.02	0.02
Providence	BE	0.09	0.08	56.52	50.27	0.01	0.00
Kent St.	MAC	0.13	0.08	71.43	69.05	0.06	0.03
Maryland	ACC	0.04	0.08	59.09	50.82	0.01	0.00
Richmond	A10	0.04	0.08	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.09	0.08	65.22	63.74	0.03	0.02
Bryant	NEC	0.08	0.08	8.33	10.86	-0.07	-0.06
Duquesne	A10	0.13	0.08	59.09	56.35	0.02	0.01
Temple	A10	0.09	0.08	77.27	75.06	0.05	0.04
Tennessee	SEC	0.09	0.08	45.45	44.66	-0.01	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.09	0.08	69.57	65.87	0.03	0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.06	35.29	39.85	-0.01	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.06	19.05	22.37	-0.03	-0.03
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.06	20.00	19.96	-0.03	-0.03
American	Pat	0.09	0.06	65.22	63.79	0.03	0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.06	25.00	37.58	-0.02	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.09	0.06	68.18	69.68	0.03	0.02
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.06	30.43	31.43	-0.02	-0.02
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.09	0.06	36.36	39.72	-0.03	-0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.06	50.00	48.90	0.00	-0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.09	0.06	39.13	42.12	-0.02	-0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.05	0.06	40.91	42.05	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.05	0.06	56.52	54.22	0.01	0.00
Longwood	ind	0.05	0.06	30.00	27.84	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.06	19.05	21.29	-0.03	-0.03
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.05	0.06	34.78	35.20	-0.01	-0.02
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.05	0.06	82.61	81.44	0.03	0.03
Radford	BSth	0.09	0.06	8.70	13.10	-0.07	-0.04
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.06	47.83	43.66	-0.00	-0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.00	0.06	56.52	57.72	0.00	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.10	0.05	72.73	71.71	0.05	0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.09	0.05	80.95	77.38	0.06	0.03
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.09	0.05	10.00	14.93	-0.07	-0.04
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.05	43.48	40.28	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.09	0.05	45.00	44.15	-0.01	-0.01
Denver	SB	0.04	0.05	70.83	72.23	0.02	0.02
Lehigh	Pat	0.09	0.05	73.91	74.91	0.04	0.03
Marshall	CUSA	0.04	0.05	59.09	59.72	0.01	0.01
Nevada	WAC	0.00	0.05	80.95	76.42	0.00	0.03
Purdue	B10	0.04	0.05	65.22	60.58	0.01	0.01
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.09	0.05	76.19	75.94	0.05	0.03
Utah St.	WAC	0.09	0.05	50.00	52.93	0.00	0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.04	0.05	40.91	42.96	-0.01	-0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.04	0.05	81.82	80.43	0.03	0.03
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.09	0.05	80.00	78.06	0.05	0.03
Colorado St.	MWC	0.08	0.05	66.67	60.80	0.03	0.01
Fresno St.	WAC	0.08	0.05	39.13	44.52	-0.02	-0.01
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.05	78.26	72.66	0.03	0.02
Mercer	ASun	0.00	0.05	70.83	71.64	0.00	0.02
Missouri	B12	0.00	0.05	91.30	87.18	0.00	0.04
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.08	0.05	33.33	38.38	-0.03	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.09	0.05	20.83	20.60	-0.05	-0.03
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.00	0.05	26.32	29.79	-0.00	-0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.09	0.05	40.91	39.56	-0.02	-0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.00	0.05	73.91	75.49	0.00	0.03
Stetson	ASun	0.09	0.05	31.82	31.31	-0.03	-0.02
West Virginia	BE	0.05	0.05	65.22	65.17	0.01	0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	45.45	41.20	-0.00	-0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.03	30.43	26.44	-0.02	-0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.05	0.03	33.33	34.47	-0.02	-0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.03	61.90	55.14	0.01	0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.00	0.03	38.10	42.78	-0.00	-0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.03	47.62	48.82	-0.00	-0.00
Elon	SC	0.05	0.03	50.00	47.59	0.00	-0.00
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.03	78.26	78.39	0.03	0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.03	72.73	68.28	0.02	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	45.45	46.99	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.03	33.33	37.25	-0.02	-0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.03	38.89	43.93	-0.01	-0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.03	70.83	64.42	0.02	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.03	63.64	63.16	0.01	0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	52.38	57.86	0.00	0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.04	0.03	24.00	24.86	-0.02	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.04	0.03	81.82	76.80	0.03	0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.04	0.03	34.78	34.61	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.00	0.03	68.18	69.10	0.00	0.01
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.03	66.67	68.55	0.02	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.00	0.03	69.57	65.15	0.00	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.00	0.03	56.52	48.81	0.00	-0.00
Charlotte	A10	0.04	0.03	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.03	69.57	65.47	0.02	0.01
Davidson	SC	0.05	0.03	76.19	76.76	0.02	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.03	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.00
Detroit	Horz	0.00	0.03	47.83	49.03	-0.00	-0.00
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.03	86.36	83.09	0.03	0.02
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.04	0.03	52.38	52.86	0.00	0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.05	0.03	19.05	25.52	-0.03	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.05	0.03	17.39	22.00	-0.03	-0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.05	0.03	71.43	73.35	0.02	0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.04	0.03	54.17	54.75	0.00	0.00
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.05	0.03	59.09	57.28	0.01	0.00
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.03	79.17	75.98	0.03	0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.04	0.03	69.57	71.51	0.02	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.03	63.64	56.71	0.01	0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.03	78.26	72.34	0.03	0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.03	50.00	58.16	0.00	0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.04	0.03	86.96	83.16	0.03	0.02
North Florida	ASun	0.05	0.03	45.83	46.68	-0.00	-0.00
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	62.65	0.01	0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.04	0.03	81.82	77.20	0.03	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.03	86.96	85.46	0.03	0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.03	45.45	40.70	-0.00	-0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.00	0.03	77.27	77.67	0.00	0.01
Texas A&M	B12	0.05	0.03	52.38	46.15	0.00	-0.00
The Citadel	SC	0.04	0.03	9.52	11.44	-0.03	-0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.03	40.91	39.82	-0.01	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.03	54.55	56.79	0.00	0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.04	0.03	56.52	55.20	0.01	0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.03	41.67	40.61	-0.01	-0.00
Xavier	A10	0.04	0.03	65.22	63.74	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.04	0.03	50.00	51.53	0.00	0.00