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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Rider

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:69.0
Current RPI:69
Expected SOS:154
Current SOS:154
Current Record:22-9
Expected Record:22-9
Current Conf Record:15-4
Expected Conf Record:15-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:10-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-2
Current OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:49
Expected OOC SOS:48



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-969.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Rider.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Hampton (237.0)MEACH90-75W100%0.0
11-13Xavier (3.0)BEA101-75L0%0.0
11-15Hartford (198.0)AEH89-53W100%0.0
11-20George Washington (195.0)A10A65-67W100%0.0
11-23UC Irvine (119.0)BWN82-90W100%0.0
11-24Hampton (237.0)MEACN94-80W100%0.0
11-29Providence (32.0)BEA88-84L0%0.0
12-2Drexel (242.0)CAAA89-77L0%0.0
12-6Robert Morris (196.0)NECA78-75L0%0.0
12-9Hofstra (121.0)CAAH82-88L0%0.0
12-16Wagner (109.0)NECH90-84W100%0.0
12-22Penn St. (77.0)B10A70-71W100%0.0
12-29Canisius (124.0)MAACA77-76L0%0.0
12-31Niagara (163.0)MAACA76-99W100%0.0
1-5Fairfield (180.0)MAACH96-77W100%0.0
1-7Manhattan (228.0)MAACA76-82W100%0.0
1-12Quinnipiac (277.0)MAACH78-60W100%0.0
1-14Iona (107.0)MAACA91-64L0%0.0
1-18Saint Peter's (251.0)MAACA84-88W100%0.0
1-20Marist (324.0)MAACH60-57W100%0.0
1-23Fairfield (180.0)MAACA88-90W100%0.0
1-26Saint Peter's (251.0)MAACH63-60W100%0.0
1-29Monmouth (199.0)MAACH92-85W100%0.0
2-4Quinnipiac (277.0)MAACA59-74W100%0.0
2-8Manhattan (228.0)MAACH77-73W100%0.0
2-10Marist (324.0)MAACA79-89W100%0.0
2-15Siena (299.0)MAACH97-71W100%0.0
2-18Canisius (124.0)MAACH83-82W100%0.0
2-22Monmouth (199.0)MAACA91-77L0%0.0
2-25Iona (107.0)MAACH110-101W100%0.0
3-2Saint Peter's (251.0)MAACN55-66L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Rider's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Rider's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Rider.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
RiderMAAC26.3426.3475.5675.5613.4613.46
Saint Peter'sMAAC5.655.6544.8344.83-0.58-0.58
FairfieldMAAC4.164.1654.8454.840.400.40
IonaMAAC4.164.1661.2961.290.940.94
QuinnipiacMAAC4.164.1638.7138.71-0.94-0.94
MonmouthMAAC4.084.0834.4834.48-1.27-1.27
CanisiusMAAC4.064.0666.6766.671.351.35
ManhattanMAAC4.034.0348.2848.28-0.14-0.14
MaristMAAC4.034.0320.6920.69-2.36-2.36
HamptonMEAC3.273.2755.1755.170.340.34
SienaMAAC2.602.6025.8125.81-1.26-1.26
NiagaraMAAC2.542.5461.2961.290.570.57
Robert MorrisNEC1.791.7946.8846.88-0.11-0.11
HofstraCAA1.791.7958.6258.620.310.31
WagnerNEC1.761.7672.4172.410.790.79
XavierBE1.761.7684.3884.381.211.21
DrexelCAA1.741.7435.4835.48-0.51-0.51
George WashingtonA101.711.7146.8846.88-0.11-0.11
HartfordAE1.691.6960.0060.000.340.34
ProvidenceBE1.691.6960.6160.610.360.36
Penn St.B101.641.6463.6463.640.450.45
UC IrvineBW1.611.6150.0050.000.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.310.3151.5251.520.010.01
Seton HallBE0.300.3065.6265.620.090.09
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.250.2537.9337.93-0.06-0.06
St. Francis NYNEC0.230.2337.9337.93-0.06-0.06
ElonCAA0.230.2340.0040.00-0.05-0.05
AlbanyAE0.230.2367.7467.740.080.08
Sacred HeartNEC0.230.2330.0030.00-0.09-0.09
New HampshireAE0.180.1827.5927.59-0.08-0.08
St. John'sBE0.170.1746.8846.88-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.160.1653.3353.330.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.160.1658.6258.620.030.03
ArmyPat0.160.1641.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.160.1643.7543.75-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.150.1577.4277.420.080.08
BryantNEC0.150.159.689.68-0.12-0.12
Norfolk St.MEAC0.150.1543.3343.33-0.02-0.02
LafayettePat0.150.1530.0030.00-0.06-0.06
VillanovaBE0.150.1588.2488.240.110.11
NorthwesternB100.150.1545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.130.1330.0030.00-0.05-0.05
UMass LowellAE0.130.1337.9337.93-0.03-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.130.1329.0329.03-0.05-0.05
LehighPat0.130.1351.7251.720.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.130.1336.6736.67-0.03-0.03
St. Francis PANEC0.130.1357.1457.140.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.130.1315.6215.62-0.09-0.09
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
VermontAE0.130.1378.7978.790.070.07
La SalleA100.130.1340.6240.62-0.02-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.130.1378.1278.120.070.07
BrownIvy0.120.1238.4638.46-0.03-0.03
MassachusettsA100.120.1239.3939.39-0.03-0.03
CreightonBE0.120.1264.5264.520.030.03
DelawareCAA0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.1024.2424.24-0.05-0.05
Missouri St.MVC0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
VirginiaACC0.100.1093.9493.940.090.09
Stony BrookAE0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
NJITASun0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.100.1013.3313.33-0.07-0.07
PennIvy0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
YaleIvy0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
NebraskaB100.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.100.1010.7110.71-0.08-0.08
DartmouthIvy0.100.1023.0823.08-0.05-0.05
HoustonAmer0.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
Rhode IslandA100.100.1078.1278.120.050.05
ButlerBE0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
DePaulBE0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
MarquetteBE0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
PurdueB100.100.1082.3582.350.060.06
Ohio St.B100.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
DaytonA100.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
BucknellPat0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
HarvardIvy0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
HowardMEAC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
PrincetonIvy0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0720.0020.00-0.04-0.04
Loyola MDPat0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.070.0762.0762.070.020.02
ColoradoP120.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
DuquesneA100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
HawaiiBW0.070.0753.5753.570.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.070.0770.0070.000.030.03
MinnesotaB100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.070.0726.9226.92-0.03-0.03
George MasonA100.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
ColgatePat0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.056.676.67-0.05-0.05
KentuckySEC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.050.0582.7682.760.030.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
StetsonASun0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
TulsaAmer0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
PacificWCC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
RutgersB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Arizona St.P120.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
DavidsonA100.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
LibertyBSth0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
OhioMAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
RichmondA100.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
UC DavisBW0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
UC RiversideBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
VCUA100.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
MontanaBSky0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
WisconsinB100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
AmericanPat0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
ClemsonACC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.039.689.68-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0332.3532.35-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
MemphisAmer0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
MercerSC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
BaylorB120.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
DenverSum0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
IdahoBSky0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Little RockSB0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Miami FLACC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.020.0283.3383.330.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.020.0284.8584.850.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
UCLAP120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
CampbellBSth0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
MichiganB100.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
Michigan St.B100.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
Oral RobertsSum0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
WashingtonP120.020.0262.5062.500.010.01