Rider

Conference:	MAAC
Expected RPI:	145.0
Current RPI:	145
Expected SOS:	168
Current SOS:	168
Current Record:	18-14
Expected Record:	18-14
Current Conf Record:	12-7
Expected Conf Record:	12-7
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	6-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	10-2
Current OOC Record:	6-7
Expected OOC Record:	6-7
Expected OOC RPI:	179
Expected OOC SOS:	184

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
18-14	145.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Rider.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Robert Morris (132.0)	NEC	H	79-54	W	100%
11-13	Stony Brook (81.0)	AE	H	46-54	L	0%
11-17	Monmouth (282.0)	NEC	H	65-62	W	100%
11-19	South Carolina (222.0)	SEC	A	88-76	L	0%
11-21	Southern Methodist (219.0)	CUSA	A	83-70	L	0%
11-23	Jacksonville (281.0)	ASun	N	86-71	W	100%
11-25	Wisconsin Milwaukee (307.0)	Horz	N	74-60	W	100%
11-29	La Salle (46.0)	A10	H	52-63	L	0%
12-1	Drexel (206.0)	CAA	A	66-75	W	100%
12-7	Siena (295.0)	MAAC	A	56-62	W	100%
12-9	Fairfield (173.0)	MAAC	H	52-65	L	0%
12-20	Princeton (124.0)	Ivy	A	62-45	L	0%
12-28	Rutgers (109.0)	BE	A	68-56	L	0%
12-31	Delaware (141.0)	CAA	A	73-66	L	0%
1-4	Loyola MD (99.0)	MAAC	A	71-65	L	0%
1-6	Siena (295.0)	MAAC	H	72-53	W	100%
1-10	Manhattan (183.0)	MAAC	A	60-69	W	100%
1-13	Loyola MD (99.0)	MAAC	H	64-57	W	100%
1-17	St. Peter's (290.0)	MAAC	A	54-66	W	100%
1-20	Iona (98.0)	MAAC	H	67-62	W	100%
1-25	Canisius (112.0)	MAAC	H	50-67	L	0%
1-27	Manhattan (183.0)	MAAC	H	51-62	L	0%
2-1	Fairfield (173.0)	MAAC	A	69-59	L	0%
2-3	Marist (262.0)	MAAC	A	58-64	W	100%
2-7	Niagara (123.0)	MAAC	H	72-69	W	100%
2-9	Iona (98.0)	MAAC	A	78-71	L	0%
2-14	St. Peter's (290.0)	MAAC	H	72-57	W	100%
2-17	Marist (262.0)	MAAC	H	67-63	W	100%
2-23	Charleston Southern (189.0)	BSth	H	61-54	W	100%
2-28	Niagara (123.0)	MAAC	A	59-68	W	100%
3-2	Canisius (112.0)	MAAC	A	61-65	W	100%
3-9	Fairfield (173.0)	MAAC	N	42-43	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Rider's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Rider's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Rider.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Rider	MAAC	26.33	26.33	57.33	57.33	3.86	3.86
Fairfield	MAAC	5.63	5.63	51.61	51.61	0.18	0.18
Manhattan	MAAC	4.17	4.17	43.33	43.33	-0.56	-0.56
Iona	MAAC	4.16	4.16	61.29	61.29	0.94	0.94
Siena	MAAC	4.08	4.08	26.67	26.67	-1.90	-1.90
Niagara	MAAC	4.05	4.05	63.33	63.33	1.08	1.08
St. Peter's	MAAC	4.04	4.04	32.14	32.14	-1.44	-1.44
Marist	MAAC	4.03	4.03	34.48	34.48	-1.25	-1.25
Canisius	MAAC	4.03	4.03	58.62	58.62	0.69	0.69
Loyola MD	MAAC	4.01	4.01	66.67	66.67	1.34	1.34
Stony Brook	AE	1.71	1.71	75.86	75.86	0.89	0.89
Drexel	CAA	1.71	1.71	43.33	43.33	-0.23	-0.23
Rutgers	BE	1.69	1.69	46.67	46.67	-0.11	-0.11
La Salle	A10	1.68	1.68	68.97	68.97	0.64	0.64
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	1.68	1.68	20.69	20.69	-0.99	-0.99
South Carolina	SEC	1.66	1.66	41.94	41.94	-0.27	-0.27
Delaware	CAA	1.64	1.64	56.25	56.25	0.20	0.20
Jacksonville	ASun	1.61	1.61	41.38	41.38	-0.28	-0.28
Princeton	Ivy	1.61	1.61	57.69	57.69	0.25	0.25
Robert Morris	NEC	1.61	1.61	71.88	71.88	0.71	0.71
Monmouth	NEC	1.61	1.61	33.33	33.33	-0.54	-0.54
Charleston Southern	BSth	1.56	1.56	59.26	59.26	0.29	0.29
Southern Methodist	CUSA	1.56	1.56	43.33	43.33	-0.21	-0.21
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.27	0.27	43.33	43.33	-0.04	-0.04
Fordham	A10	0.27	0.27	22.58	22.58	-0.15	-0.15
Albany	AE	0.24	0.24	70.59	70.59	0.10	0.10
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.23	0.23	29.03	29.03	-0.09	-0.09
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.22	0.22	48.28	48.28	-0.01	-0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.22	0.22	19.35	19.35	-0.14	-0.14
Binghamton	AE	0.20	0.20	6.90	6.90	-0.18	-0.18
Bucknell	Pat	0.20	0.20	84.38	84.38	0.14	0.14
Buffalo	MAC	0.20	0.20	37.50	37.50	-0.05	-0.05
Vermont	AE	0.20	0.20	65.62	65.62	0.06	0.06
Boston University	AE	0.18	0.18	58.62	58.62	0.03	0.03
Hartford	AE	0.18	0.18	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.18	0.18	31.03	31.03	-0.07	-0.07
Long Island	NEC	0.17	0.17	60.61	60.61	0.04	0.04
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.17	0.17	58.06	58.06	0.03	0.03
Old Dominion	CAA	0.17	0.17	16.67	16.67	-0.11	-0.11
Columbia	Ivy	0.16	0.16	38.46	38.46	-0.04	-0.04
Northeastern	CAA	0.15	0.15	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Maine	AE	0.15	0.15	34.48	34.48	-0.05	-0.05
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.15	0.15	23.33	23.33	-0.08	-0.08
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.15	0.15	22.58	22.58	-0.08	-0.08
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.15	0.15	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.15	0.15	17.24	17.24	-0.10	-0.10
Towson	CAA	0.15	0.15	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
DePaul	BE	0.15	0.15	34.38	34.38	-0.05	-0.05
Cornell	Ivy	0.14	0.14	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Syracuse	BE	0.13	0.13	74.29	74.29	0.06	0.06
Seton Hall	BE	0.13	0.13	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.13	0.13	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
George Washington	A10	0.13	0.13	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Notre Dame	BE	0.12	0.12	73.53	73.53	0.06	0.06
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.12	0.12	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
George Mason	CAA	0.12	0.12	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.12	0.12	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.12	0.12	58.82	58.82	0.02	0.02
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.12	0.12	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.11	0.11	29.03	29.03	-0.05	-0.05
Brown	Ivy	0.11	0.11	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.11	0.11	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.11	0.11	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.10	0.10	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.10	0.10	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Detroit	Horz	0.10	0.10	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.10	0.10	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.10	0.10	68.75	68.75	0.04	0.04
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.10	0.10	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Radford	BSth	0.10	0.10	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Temple	A10	0.10	0.10	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
Villanova	BE	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.10	0.10	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.10	0.10	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Georgia St.	CAA	0.10	0.10	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.10	0.10	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.10	0.10	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Providence	BE	0.09	0.09	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.09	0.09	68.97	68.97	0.04	0.04
Virginia	ACC	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Winthrop	BSth	0.08	0.08	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Presbyterian	BSth	0.08	0.08	17.24	17.24	-0.05	-0.05
College of Charleston	SC	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Longwood	BSth	0.08	0.08	19.35	19.35	-0.05	-0.05
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Lafayette	Pat	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Hampton	MEAC	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	28.12	28.12	-0.03	-0.03
Rice	CUSA	0.08	0.08	13.79	13.79	-0.05	-0.05
UAB	CUSA	0.08	0.08	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Xavier	A10	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
St. John's	BE	0.07	0.07	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Louisville	BE	0.07	0.07	85.29	85.29	0.05	0.05
Memphis	CUSA	0.07	0.07	88.24	88.24	0.06	0.06
Navy	Pat	0.07	0.07	23.33	23.33	-0.04	-0.04
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.07	0.07	31.25	31.25	-0.03	-0.03
Bryant	NEC	0.07	0.07	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.07	0.07	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Austin Peay	OVC	0.07	0.07	20.69	20.69	-0.04	-0.04
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.06	0.06	29.63	29.63	-0.02	-0.02
Yale	Ivy	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.06	0.06	42.31	42.31	-0.01	-0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Elon	SC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Butler	A10	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	10.00	10.00	-0.04	-0.04
Lipscomb	ASun	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
New Hampshire	AE	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
North Florida	ASun	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Valparaiso	Horz	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Campbell	BSth	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Davidson	SC	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Furman	SC	0.05	0.05	17.24	17.24	-0.03	-0.03
Maryland	ACC	0.05	0.05	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
Army	Pat	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Colgate	Pat	0.05	0.05	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Houston	CUSA	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Utah	P12	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Pittsburgh	BE	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	70.37	70.37	0.02	0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Washington	P12	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Denver	WAC	0.05	0.05	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Arizona	P12	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
High Point	BSth	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
The Citadel	SC	0.03	0.03	21.43	21.43	-0.02	-0.02
Wichita St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
IUPUI	Sum	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.03	0.03	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.03	0.03	53.85	53.85	0.00	0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
South Florida	BE	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
St. Mary's	WCC	0.03	0.03	81.25	81.25	0.02	0.02
Texas Christian	B12	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Texas St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Appalachian St.	SC	0.02	0.02	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.02	0.02	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Florida	SEC	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Duke	ACC	0.02	0.02	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.02	0.02	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00