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Through games of Feb 11, 2016.


Rider

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:230.5
Current RPI:252
Expected SOS:226
Current SOS:264
Current Record:10-15
Expected Record:13-18
Current Conf Record:6-8
Expected Conf Record:9-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-7
Current OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC RPI:228
Expected OOC SOS:251



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-15183.70.55%
15-16199.36.37%
14-17215.025.73%
13-18231.238.34%
12-19247.422.33%
11-20262.36.24%
10-21274.50.43%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Rider.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Princeton (51.7)IvyH56-64L0%0.0
11-17La Salle (259.3)A10A73-60L0%0.0
11-20Maryland (5.3)B10A65-58L0%0.0
11-24Cleveland St. (273.6)HorzN57-52L0%0.0
11-25Houston Baptist (205.7)SlndN56-67W100%0.0
11-29Rhode Island (96.7)A10A82-57L0%0.0
12-2Saint Peter's (225.7)MAACH61-73L0%0.0
12-4Fairfield (173.8)MAACA74-70L0%0.0
12-8Wagner (201.7)NECH64-65L0%0.0
12-12Charleston Southern (274.2)BSthA72-82W100%0.0
12-19Providence (50.6)BEA73-65L0%0.0
12-23Morgan St. (331.7)MEACA49-71W100%0.0
12-30Hartford (319.5)AEH82-80W100%0.0
1-4Quinnipiac (281.8)MAACA64-60L0%0.0
1-7Iona (122.3)MAACA67-58L0%0.0
1-9Fairfield (173.8)MAACH64-69L0%0.0
1-14Marist (312.6)MAACH102-100W100%0.0
1-17Iona (122.3)MAACH79-75W100%0.0
1-21Siena (95.6)MAACA63-52L0%0.0
1-24Quinnipiac (281.8)MAACH75-52W100%0.0
1-28Saint Peter's (225.7)MAACA45-76W100%0.0
1-31Canisius (217.5)MAACH79-68W100%0.0
2-2Manhattan (226.2)MAACA65-57L0%0.0
2-5Niagara (307.1)MAACA60-66W100%0.0
2-7Canisius (217.5)MAACA67-61L0%0.0
2-12Monmouth (40.4)MAACH0-025%-7.2
2-14Niagara (307.1)MAACH0-084%10.7
2-19Siena (95.6)MAACH0-042%-2.3
2-23Marist (312.6)MAACA0-067%4.8
2-26Monmouth (40.4)MAACA0-010%-13.8
2-28Manhattan (226.2)MAACH0-075%7.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Rider's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Rider's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Rider.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
RiderMAAC26.5126.4043.2443.28-3.58-3.55
MonmouthMAAC0.974.2480.0081.090.582.64
NiagaraMAAC2.854.2425.0025.75-1.43-2.06
FairfieldMAAC4.694.2350.0050.810.000.07
QuinnipiacMAAC4.664.2333.3333.86-1.55-1.37
IonaMAAC4.774.2361.9061.461.130.97
CanisiusMAAC4.694.2141.6744.16-0.78-0.49
SienaMAAC2.764.2164.0064.000.771.18
MaristMAAC2.774.2022.7324.83-1.51-2.12
Saint Peter'sMAAC4.724.2040.0042.80-0.94-0.60
ManhattanMAAC2.744.1742.8641.75-0.39-0.69
Rhode IslandA102.311.8156.5255.820.300.21
HartfordAE2.261.8025.0025.40-1.13-0.89
WagnerNEC2.131.7559.0961.130.390.39
Morgan St.MEAC2.091.7020.0026.86-1.25-0.79
PrincetonIvy2.131.7070.5973.730.880.81
MarylandB102.141.7086.9683.101.581.12
Cleveland St.Horz2.081.6718.1819.99-1.33-1.00
ProvidenceBE2.081.6770.8368.100.870.60
La SalleA102.081.6615.0017.34-1.46-1.09
Charleston SouthernBSth2.001.6128.5728.91-0.86-0.68
Houston BaptistSlnd2.001.6152.6351.670.110.05
BrownIvy0.310.2831.5831.01-0.11-0.11
CornellIvy0.210.2742.1140.24-0.03-0.05
AlbanyAE0.250.2773.0873.780.110.13
VermontAE0.250.2752.0054.860.010.03
DartmouthIvy0.300.2531.5831.68-0.11-0.09
St. BonaventureA100.200.2172.7370.410.090.09
St. Francis NYNEC0.260.2040.0043.49-0.05-0.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.300.1933.3336.31-0.10-0.05
BucknellPat0.220.1952.1754.940.010.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.230.1983.3381.280.150.12
ColumbiaIvy0.130.1766.6765.240.040.05
FordhamA100.130.1752.3850.690.010.00
Holy CrossPat0.210.1641.6739.59-0.04-0.03
DaytonA100.100.1686.9682.160.070.10
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.190.1552.1753.720.010.01
George MasonA100.130.1433.3333.63-0.04-0.05
YaleIvy0.180.1473.6874.620.080.07
Seton HallBE0.170.1470.8368.080.070.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.170.1429.1733.75-0.07-0.04
MaineAE0.170.1432.0031.16-0.06-0.05
ValparaisoHorz0.170.1482.6183.030.110.09
DrexelCAA0.130.1413.0416.42-0.10-0.09
BryantNEC0.120.1424.0024.92-0.06-0.07
MassachusettsA100.130.1443.4842.40-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.160.1465.2260.600.050.03
St. John'sBE0.120.1325.0023.45-0.06-0.07
HofstraCAA0.160.1366.6766.770.050.04
GeorgetownBE0.080.1356.0052.870.010.01
LafayettePat0.190.1220.8321.68-0.11-0.07
AkronMAC0.180.1182.6181.140.110.07
George WashingtonA100.130.1175.0071.960.070.05
DelawareCAA0.130.1125.0024.93-0.07-0.06
Oregon St.P120.170.1163.6458.760.050.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.130.1150.0051.280.000.00
ArmyPat0.040.1154.1754.290.000.01
Boston UniversityPat0.160.1156.0056.510.020.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.1130.4332.26-0.03-0.04
NorthwesternB100.170.1164.0062.090.050.03
Old DominionCUSA0.130.1158.3363.180.020.03
Loyola MDPat0.120.1133.3335.18-0.04-0.03
WisconsinB100.080.1162.5057.000.020.01
USCP120.000.1078.2673.130.000.05
LibertyBSth0.150.0934.7836.53-0.04-0.02
CampbellBSth0.090.0931.8232.08-0.03-0.03
High PointBSth0.090.0957.1459.870.010.02
PennIvy0.100.0938.8937.69-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.100.0959.0961.280.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0943.4850.64-0.010.00
Wright St.Horz0.090.0954.1753.810.010.01
HarvardIvy0.100.0935.0038.57-0.03-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.080.0812.5013.27-0.06-0.06
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.130.0842.3146.12-0.02-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.090.0852.1751.830.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.090.0825.0033.23-0.04-0.03
MichiganB100.090.0870.8366.750.040.03
Stony BrookAE0.140.0882.6183.010.090.06
RadfordBSth0.080.0852.1754.100.000.01
UMass LowellAE0.120.0837.5037.69-0.03-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.130.0818.1821.11-0.08-0.05
Saint LouisA100.080.0834.7832.39-0.02-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.040.0829.1733.11-0.02-0.03
VillanovaBE0.130.0887.5086.850.100.06
North CarolinaACC0.120.0883.3378.380.080.05
Penn St.B100.120.0850.0046.770.00-0.01
RutgersB100.040.0821.7420.34-0.02-0.05
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0657.1457.670.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0643.4845.21-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.090.0623.8125.49-0.05-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.090.0662.5063.450.020.02
WinthropBSth0.090.0666.6763.780.030.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0635.0034.83-0.01-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0652.9452.100.000.00
LamarSlnd0.050.0630.0029.13-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0645.0049.27-0.01-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0672.2275.600.020.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0676.1972.370.030.03
Miami FLACC0.100.0682.6177.580.070.03
UC RiversideBW0.100.0645.8341.63-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.090.0673.9174.640.040.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0614.2920.64-0.03-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0650.0049.320.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.050.0658.3359.310.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.040.0626.9228.60-0.02-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0681.8281.780.030.04
TowsonCAA0.100.0662.5057.730.020.01
Illinois St.MVC0.090.0656.0054.080.010.00
TCUB120.090.0645.8339.36-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.090.0645.4543.87-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.040.0656.5257.700.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.090.069.5210.67-0.07-0.04
JacksonvilleASun0.040.0647.8348.57-0.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.040.0660.8762.470.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.040.0631.8235.12-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.090.0665.3865.510.030.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.090.0645.4554.18-0.010.00
TulsaAmer0.090.0666.6764.700.030.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.090.0645.4551.69-0.010.00
AmericanPat0.090.0529.1731.19-0.04-0.02
DavidsonA100.050.0561.9058.170.010.01
DuquesneA100.050.0560.8756.270.010.01
RichmondA100.090.0556.5255.820.010.01
VCUA100.050.0570.8371.050.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.080.0524.0026.44-0.04-0.03
New HampshireAE0.040.0559.0956.870.010.01
Ohio St.B100.080.0560.0055.560.020.01
PurdueB100.040.0580.0077.910.020.03
UMBCAE0.040.0523.0825.87-0.02-0.03
IllinoisB100.040.0545.8344.07-0.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.080.0580.0081.560.050.03
NebraskaB100.080.0552.0050.760.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.080.0556.5257.060.010.01
ButlerBE0.080.0570.8369.000.030.02
CreightonBE0.040.0564.0062.070.010.01
DePaulBE0.040.0533.3334.02-0.01-0.02
DukeACC0.040.0575.0071.840.020.02
LehighPat0.080.0539.1342.83-0.02-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0545.4549.05-0.01-0.00
MarquetteBE0.080.0564.0057.890.020.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0570.8367.930.000.02
UCLAP120.000.0556.5253.400.000.00
XavierBE0.040.0587.5081.850.030.03
ArkansasSEC0.050.0350.0052.940.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0360.8760.240.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0366.6763.300.020.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0321.7424.60-0.03-0.02
StanfordP120.050.0347.6244.06-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0373.9176.700.020.02
Arizona St.P120.050.0354.1751.700.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0325.0029.89-0.03-0.01
LipscombASun0.060.0328.0030.49-0.02-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0322.2231.22-0.03-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0365.2268.600.020.01
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0326.3232.40-0.02-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0317.6526.67-0.03-0.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0327.2728.16-0.02-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0314.2924.90-0.04-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0331.8236.11-0.02-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0366.6767.670.020.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0331.8230.08-0.02-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0372.0071.570.020.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.039.0912.26-0.04-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0325.0025.08-0.02-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0350.0052.870.000.00
HowardMEAC0.050.0336.3638.97-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0338.1037.67-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0352.1754.130.000.00
TempleAmer0.050.0365.2262.370.010.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0383.3378.460.030.02
BelmontOVC0.040.0368.0066.640.020.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.040.0350.0045.770.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.040.0345.8343.78-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.040.0363.6461.470.010.01
ToledoMAC0.040.0360.8762.080.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.040.0370.8370.130.020.01
IndianaB100.000.0380.0075.690.000.01
IowaB100.040.0379.1778.880.020.02
LouisvilleACC0.040.0379.1775.990.020.01
MarshallCUSA0.040.0350.0051.110.000.00
MinnesotaB100.000.0325.0027.26-0.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.040.0362.5064.120.010.01
ArizonaP120.040.0379.1778.290.020.01
Boston CollegeACC0.040.0329.1726.69-0.02-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.040.0372.0073.080.020.01
HoustonAmer0.040.0370.8367.980.020.01
NJITASun0.040.0356.0055.640.000.00