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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Indiana

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:125.0
Current RPI:125
Expected SOS:79
Current SOS:79
Current Record:16-15
Expected Record:16-15
Current Conf Record:9-10
Expected Conf Record:9-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-2
Current OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:207
Expected OOC SOS:200



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-15125.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Indiana.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Indiana St. (184.0)MVCH69-90L0%0.0
11-12Howard (339.0)MEACH86-77W100%0.0
11-15Seton Hall (31.0)BEA84-68L0%0.0
11-19South Florida (278.0)AmerH70-53W100%0.0
11-22Arkansas St. (291.0)SBH87-70W100%0.0
11-24Eastern Michigan (116.0)MACH87-67W100%0.0
11-29Duke (7.0)ACCH81-91L0%0.0
12-2Michigan (12.0)B10A69-55L0%0.0
12-4Iowa (157.0)B10H77-64W100%0.0
12-9Louisville (38.0)ACCA71-62L0%0.0
12-16Notre Dame (70.0)ACCN80-77W100%0.0
12-18Fort Wayne (209.0)SumH72-92L0%0.0
12-21Tennessee Tech (158.0)OVCH87-59W100%0.0
12-29Youngstown St. (329.0)HorzH79-51W100%0.0
1-2Wisconsin (114.0)B10A71-61L0%0.0
1-6Minnesota (171.0)B10A71-75W100%0.0
1-9Penn St. (77.0)B10H74-70W100%0.0
1-14Northwestern (168.0)B10H66-46W100%0.0
1-19Michigan St. (14.0)B10A85-57L0%0.0
1-22Maryland (74.0)B10H71-68W100%0.0
1-24Illinois (181.0)B10A73-71L0%0.0
1-28Purdue (9.0)B10H67-74L0%0.0
1-30Ohio St. (20.0)B10A71-56L0%0.0
2-3Michigan St. (14.0)B10H60-63L0%0.0
2-5Rutgers (203.0)B10A43-65W100%0.0
2-9Minnesota (171.0)B10H80-56W100%0.0
2-14Illinois (181.0)B10H78-68W100%0.0
2-17Iowa (157.0)B10A82-84W100%0.0
2-20Nebraska (56.0)B10A66-57L0%0.0
2-23Ohio St. (20.0)B10H78-80L0%0.0
3-1Rutgers (203.0)B10N69-76L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Indiana's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Indiana's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Indiana.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
IndianaB1026.0926.0946.6246.62-1.77-1.77
RutgersB103.953.9541.9441.94-0.64-0.64
Michigan St.B103.903.9087.1087.102.892.89
IowaB103.873.8745.1645.16-0.37-0.37
IllinoisB103.843.8441.3841.38-0.66-0.66
MinnesotaB103.823.8250.0050.000.000.00
Ohio St.B103.823.8273.3373.331.781.78
MichiganB102.382.3878.7978.791.371.37
PurdueB102.362.3681.8281.821.501.50
Penn St.B102.342.3463.6463.640.640.64
WisconsinB102.312.3143.7543.75-0.29-0.29
NebraskaB102.282.2867.7467.740.810.81
NorthwesternB102.232.2346.6746.67-0.15-0.15
MarylandB102.232.2360.0060.000.450.45
DukeACC1.741.7478.1278.120.980.98
Notre DameACC1.741.7459.3859.380.330.33
LouisvilleACC1.711.7159.3859.380.320.32
South FloridaAmer1.691.6932.2632.26-0.60-0.60
HowardMEAC1.691.6926.6726.67-0.79-0.79
Arkansas St.SB1.691.6931.0331.03-0.64-0.64
Eastern MichiganMAC1.691.6960.7160.710.360.36
Seton HallBE1.691.6964.5264.520.490.49
Fort WayneSum1.611.6148.1548.15-0.06-0.06
Indiana St.MVC1.611.6135.7135.71-0.46-0.46
Tennessee TechOVC1.611.6156.6756.670.220.22
Youngstown St.Horz1.611.6120.6920.69-0.95-0.95
North CarolinaACC0.270.2771.4371.430.120.12
DePaulBE0.230.2335.4835.48-0.07-0.07
Cleveland St.Horz0.210.2132.3532.35-0.07-0.07
ButlerBE0.200.2060.6160.610.040.04
Virginia TechACC0.200.2065.6265.620.060.06
OaklandHorz0.190.1957.5857.580.030.03
Florida St.ACC0.170.1764.5264.520.050.05
PittsburghACC0.170.1725.0025.00-0.09-0.09
DrakeMVC0.150.1548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.150.1535.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Chicago St.WAC0.150.153.333.33-0.14-0.14
VirginiaACC0.150.1593.9493.940.130.13
Nebraska OmahaSum0.130.1324.1424.14-0.07-0.07
Miami OHMAC0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.130.1328.5728.57-0.06-0.06
Appalachian St.SB0.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
SyracuseACC0.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
SouthernSWAC0.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.120.1237.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.120.1240.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
ClemsonACC0.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
Miami FLACC0.120.1270.9770.970.050.05
Boston CollegeACC0.120.1255.8855.880.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
South DakotaSum0.110.1173.3373.330.050.05
Ball St.MAC0.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
EvansvilleMVC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.110.1180.0080.000.060.06
DetroitHorz0.110.1120.0020.00-0.06-0.06
Green BayHorz0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
ValparaisoMVC0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.1027.5927.59-0.05-0.05
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.100.1016.6716.67-0.07-0.07
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.100.1080.6580.650.060.06
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.100.1032.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Long Beach St.BW0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
ProvidenceBE0.100.1061.7661.760.020.02
North FloridaASun0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
MemphisAmer0.100.1061.7661.760.020.02
St. John'sBE0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.1015.6215.62-0.07-0.07
MarquetteBE0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Southern UtahBSky0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.090.0941.3841.38-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
ToledoMAC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
OhioMAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.086.676.67-0.07-0.07
StetsonASun0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0824.2424.24-0.04-0.04
IUPUIHorz0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
ElonCAA0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.Amer0.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.080.0888.2488.240.060.06
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.070.0784.8584.850.050.05
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.079.689.68-0.06-0.06
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.070.079.689.68-0.06-0.06
DenverSum0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0684.3884.380.040.04
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
LibertyBSth0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Little RockSB0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
KentuckySEC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
MarshallCUSA0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
MissouriSEC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.050.0582.7682.760.030.03
New MexicoMWC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
UNLVMWC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
HarvardIvy0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
MassachusettsA100.050.0539.3939.39-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
RadfordBSth0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
SMUAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
StanfordP120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0544.1244.12-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
TulaneAmer0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
VillanovaBE0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
TempleAmer0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
VCUA100.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
FordhamA100.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
HartfordAE0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Iowa St.B120.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
UABCUSA0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
George MasonA100.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
TexasB120.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
UCLAP120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
TroySB0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
AmericanPat0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
BrownIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
HawaiiBW0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
PennIvy0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
TCUB120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
UMBCAE0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
FIUCUSA0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.030.0379.4179.410.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
AlbanyAE0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
BaylorB120.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.020.0223.0823.08-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
SienaMAAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.020.0265.5265.520.010.01
YaleIvy0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
ArizonaP120.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0226.9226.92-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
RiderMAAC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01