live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


Indiana

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:20.4
Current RPI:32
Expected SOS:24
Current SOS:111
Current Record:7-1
Expected Record:23-8
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:7-1
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:23
Expected OOC SOS:72



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
30-11.00.01%
29-22.00.13%
28-33.10.79%
27-44.92.56%
26-57.37.14%
25-610.612.49%
24-714.318.30%
23-818.820.48%
22-924.117.28%
21-1030.911.23%
20-1139.46.12%
19-1249.32.47%
18-1361.10.75%
17-1477.50.17%
16-1595.20.05%
15-1699.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Indiana.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Kansas (7.6)B12N99-103W100%0.0
11-16UMass Lowell (265.7)AEH100-78W100%0.0
11-19Liberty (211.7)BSthH87-48W100%0.0
11-22Fort Wayne (115.6)SumA71-68L0%0.0
11-27Mississippi Valley St. (316.3)SWACH85-52W100%0.0
11-30North Carolina (5.3)ACCH76-67W100%0.0
12-2SIU Edwardsville (217.7)OVCH83-60W100%0.0
12-4Southeast Missouri St. (267.5)OVCH83-55W100%0.0
12-10Houston Baptist (219.0)SlndH0-099%26.4
12-17Butler (15.8)BEN0-054%1.1
12-19Delaware St. (285.3)MEACH0-0100%31.2
12-22Austin Peay (231.2)OVCH0-099%26.8
12-28Nebraska (86.3)B10H0-087%13.6
12-31Louisville (7.2)ACCN0-041%-2.7
1-3Wisconsin (22.2)B10H0-056%1.9
1-7Illinois (93.1)B10H0-086%13.2
1-10Maryland (85.4)B10A0-073%7.4
1-15Rutgers (168.4)B10H0-094%19.2
1-18Penn St. (121.4)B10A0-078%9.4
1-21Michigan St. (48.5)B10H0-076%8.3
1-26Michigan (38.7)B10A0-050%0.1
1-29Northwestern (51.2)B10A0-055%1.6
2-1Penn St. (121.4)B10H0-090%15.6
2-5Wisconsin (22.2)B10A0-036%-4.4
2-9Purdue (28.0)B10H0-058%2.5
2-12Michigan (38.7)B10H0-070%6.4
2-15Minnesota (36.2)B10A0-058%2.6
2-21Iowa (195.6)B10A0-082%10.9
2-25Northwestern (51.2)B10H0-074%7.8
2-28Purdue (28.0)B10A0-038%-3.8
3-4Ohio St. (39.3)B10A0-054%1.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Indiana's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Indiana's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Indiana.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
IndianaB1028.2826.1088.4673.3421.7512.18
NorthwesternB100.353.8775.0068.300.171.41
PurdueB100.003.8375.0076.940.002.06
WisconsinB100.393.8077.7877.560.222.10
MichiganB100.003.7875.0068.310.001.38
Penn St.B100.003.7866.6748.540.00-0.11
IllinoisB100.452.3062.5051.990.110.09
Michigan St.B100.352.2755.5659.750.040.44
RutgersB100.002.2785.7146.740.00-0.15
NebraskaB100.002.2757.1446.040.00-0.18
IowaB100.002.2537.5038.39-0.00-0.52
MinnesotaB100.002.2487.5068.900.000.85
Ohio St.B100.002.2287.5069.370.000.86
MarylandB100.002.1987.5060.440.000.46
Austin PeayOVC0.451.7933.3338.06-0.15-0.43
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC7.561.780.0026.07-7.56-0.85
Southeast Missouri St.OVC6.251.7550.0040.060.00-0.35
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC6.251.7357.1443.550.89-0.22
Fort WayneSum6.941.7266.6769.072.310.66
UMass LowellAE7.561.7025.0039.82-3.78-0.35
LouisvilleACC0.001.6987.5076.140.000.88
North CarolinaACC6.251.69100.0084.696.251.17
LibertyBSth6.941.6740.0049.85-1.39-0.01
ButlerBE0.001.66100.0075.410.000.85
Houston BaptistSlnd0.001.660.0041.12-0.00-0.30
KansasB126.251.64100.0078.396.250.93
Delaware St.MEAC0.001.6412.5039.33-0.00-0.35
Notre DameACC0.000.24100.0077.380.000.13
IUPUISum0.390.2237.5051.64-0.100.01
MarquetteBE0.000.2275.0066.410.000.07
Central ArkansasSlnd0.450.1912.5030.39-0.33-0.08
St. John'sBE0.000.1937.5037.03-0.00-0.05
PittsburghACC0.000.1875.0049.180.00-0.00
DukeACC0.390.1888.8978.400.300.10
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.1757.1450.080.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.1750.0061.240.000.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1775.0054.670.000.02
DePaulBE0.000.1666.6735.430.00-0.05
TexasB120.000.1657.1438.680.00-0.04
VirginiaACC0.000.1687.5078.510.000.09
Western IllinoisSum0.450.140.0016.68-0.45-0.09
Morehead St.OVC0.000.1416.6738.58-0.00-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.1314.2938.26-0.00-0.03
CreightonBE0.000.13100.0076.630.000.07
Chicago St.WAC0.000.1320.0022.75-0.00-0.07
Grand CanyonWAC0.390.1342.8658.58-0.060.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.1355.5647.890.00-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.1385.7162.990.000.03
SyracuseACC0.000.1371.4366.700.000.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.120.0017.61-0.00-0.08
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1150.0046.410.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.1150.0050.840.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1125.0027.53-0.00-0.05
UNC AshevilleBSth0.390.1157.1467.260.060.04
DaytonA100.000.1171.4373.490.000.05
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.110.0022.58-0.00-0.06
Stony BrookAE0.000.1128.5738.15-0.00-0.03
HowardMEAC0.000.1116.6744.34-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.110.0035.95-0.00-0.03
Seton HallBE0.000.1171.4354.560.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.1150.0066.300.000.03
UCLAP120.000.11100.0086.690.000.08
AlbanyAE0.000.1142.8661.11-0.000.02
VillanovaBE0.000.11100.0084.840.000.07
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.1075.0051.040.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.1087.5065.250.000.03
NJITASun0.350.1050.0049.780.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.390.1071.4354.310.170.01
West VirginiaB120.350.1085.7183.660.250.07
BaylorB120.000.10100.0076.590.000.06
Georgia TechACC0.000.1057.1436.010.00-0.03
Iowa St.B120.000.1071.4368.070.000.04
KentuckySEC0.000.1087.5082.800.000.07
OklahomaB120.000.1071.4348.350.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.1014.2931.28-0.00-0.04
Wake ForestACC0.000.1075.0054.490.000.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0950.0041.540.00-0.02
South DakotaSum0.000.0950.0046.020.00-0.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0950.0064.350.000.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0985.7170.060.000.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0942.8655.09-0.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.090.0022.31-0.00-0.05
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0933.3352.11-0.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.450.0885.7166.190.320.03
StetsonASun0.000.0828.5728.24-0.00-0.04
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0857.1453.990.000.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0850.0071.070.000.04
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0840.0041.93-0.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.000.0887.5062.040.000.02
RadfordBSth0.390.0828.5734.28-0.17-0.03
HawaiiBW0.780.0850.0050.450.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0857.1471.520.000.04
BinghamtonAE0.000.0850.0043.560.00-0.01
UMBCAE0.000.0880.0054.540.000.01
FurmanSC0.000.0833.3356.24-0.000.01
Green BayHorz0.000.0842.8651.95-0.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.390.0857.1449.130.06-0.00
HartfordAE0.000.0822.2226.33-0.00-0.04
VermontAE0.000.0862.5071.320.000.03
ClemsonACC0.000.0871.4354.860.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.080.0034.47-0.00-0.02
SMUAmer0.000.0866.6766.860.000.03
SouthernSWAC0.000.0840.0058.82-0.000.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.0875.0056.590.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0887.5082.360.000.05
Kansas St.B120.000.0887.5059.310.000.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0875.0066.100.000.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0814.2943.58-0.00-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0825.0030.23-0.00-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.780.080.0038.27-0.78-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0811.1148.19-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0840.0041.12-0.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0625.0043.41-0.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0058.040.000.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0642.8650.12-0.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0675.0061.490.000.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0675.0071.470.000.03
DenverSum0.000.0642.8645.01-0.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0657.1458.940.000.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0625.0039.59-0.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0657.1450.420.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.450.0642.8630.92-0.06-0.02
CampbellBSth0.000.0642.8639.20-0.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0620.0037.65-0.00-0.01
High PointBSth0.000.0642.8646.48-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0620.0021.80-0.00-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0660.0058.590.000.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0633.3327.06-0.00-0.03
DetroitHorz0.000.060.0021.22-0.00-0.03
DelawareCAA0.000.0650.0041.990.00-0.01
VCUA100.520.0675.0073.060.260.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0020.75-0.00-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.390.0575.0066.370.200.02
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0542.8644.71-0.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.390.0516.6730.34-0.26-0.02
UMKCWAC0.450.0562.5052.330.110.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.450.0522.2221.23-0.25-0.03
William & MaryCAA0.520.0533.3346.01-0.17-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0533.3330.44-0.00-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0571.4363.930.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.050.0018.64-0.00-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0533.3332.92-0.00-0.02
MaineAE0.000.0514.2924.15-0.00-0.03
New HampshireAE0.000.0557.1458.840.000.01
XavierBE0.000.0587.5070.890.000.02
ArizonaP120.000.0575.0068.370.000.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0516.6739.78-0.00-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.350.0571.4355.820.150.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0550.0046.240.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.050.0013.46-0.00-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0512.5033.65-0.00-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.050.0034.27-0.00-0.02
Arizona St.P120.000.0562.5040.460.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.050.0023.69-0.00-0.03
AuburnSEC0.000.0585.7157.450.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0557.1429.790.00-0.02
BryantNEC0.000.0525.0047.82-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0528.5731.44-0.00-0.02
ColgatePat0.000.0512.5029.71-0.00-0.02
DavidsonA100.000.0571.4363.170.000.01
DuquesneA100.000.0544.4442.03-0.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0571.4355.160.000.01
George MasonA100.000.0562.5046.900.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0555.5641.690.00-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0550.0060.620.000.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0525.0031.41-0.00-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0512.5029.15-0.00-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0533.3352.84-0.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.05100.0078.850.000.03
TCUB120.000.05100.0061.680.000.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0542.8650.06-0.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0575.0086.710.000.04
Wright St.Horz0.000.0562.5051.790.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0542.8638.17-0.00-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0340.0054.54-0.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0362.5058.450.000.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0342.8637.34-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0320.0041.92-0.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0325.0055.33-0.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.450.0360.0067.760.090.01
BradleyMVC0.450.0342.8627.96-0.06-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0385.7178.280.000.02
LipscombASun0.000.0312.5033.04-0.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0325.0063.27-0.000.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0328.5723.78-0.00-0.02
Texas St.SB0.390.0350.0043.390.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.520.0371.4356.260.220.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0337.5035.09-0.00-0.01
WoffordSC0.000.030.0034.81-0.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0314.2932.19-0.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0017.13-0.00-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.0314.2942.67-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0350.0071.020.000.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.0350.0062.380.000.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.030.0022.01-0.00-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0027.12-0.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.0314.2931.35-0.00-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0342.8654.90-0.000.00
BucknellPat0.000.0366.6766.340.000.01
BYUWCC0.000.0362.5066.900.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0371.4356.250.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0371.4351.460.000.00
CornellIvy0.000.0328.5729.95-0.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0350.0040.600.00-0.01
FordhamA100.000.0350.0041.310.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0342.8650.11-0.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.000.0342.8645.94-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.350.0344.4434.65-0.04-0.01
MassachusettsA100.350.0371.4358.600.150.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0357.1442.530.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0325.0035.09-0.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0316.6739.20-0.00-0.01
RichmondA100.000.0350.0048.210.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0337.5033.74-0.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0342.8653.19-0.000.00
UtahP120.000.0375.0059.790.000.01
WagnerNEC0.350.0333.3354.47-0.120.00
ChattanoogaSC0.390.0371.4373.040.170.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0333.3339.61-0.00-0.01
DrakeMVC0.000.030.0019.67-0.00-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0357.1471.940.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.390.0357.1452.030.060.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0342.8643.60-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.350.03100.0091.920.350.02
Kent St.MAC0.350.0357.1454.360.050.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0371.4354.860.000.00
MemphisAmer0.000.0375.0055.500.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0375.0070.620.000.01
NavyPat0.000.0325.0037.38-0.00-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0333.3354.32-0.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.000.0350.0044.400.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0342.8645.56-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.000.0385.7177.150.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0371.4368.050.000.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0316.6739.49-0.00-0.01
SienaMAAC0.390.0337.5052.01-0.100.00
StanfordP120.390.0366.6758.060.130.00
TulaneAmer0.390.0312.5023.93-0.29-0.01
UABCUSA0.390.0350.0059.920.000.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0362.5043.800.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0362.5067.390.000.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0328.5723.12-0.00-0.01