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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Indiana

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:61.0
Current RPI:61
Expected SOS:27
Current SOS:27
Current Record:20-13
Expected Record:20-13
Current Conf Record:10-10
Expected Conf Record:10-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:74
Expected OOC SOS:105



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-1361.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Indiana.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Mississippi Valley St. (345.0)SWACH116-65W100%0.0
11-17Texas Southern (120.0)SWACH83-64W100%0.0
11-20SMU (12.0)AmerH74-68W100%0.0
11-22Lamar (230.0)SlndH85-72W100%0.0
11-24Eastern Washington (74.0)BSkyH86-88L0%0.0
11-28UNC Greensboro (309.0)SCH87-79W100%0.0
12-2Pittsburgh (76.0)ACCH81-69W100%0.0
12-6Savannah St. (331.0)MEACH95-49W100%0.0
12-9Louisville (21.0)ACCN94-74L0%0.0
12-13Grand Canyon (274.0)WACH94-66W100%0.0
12-20Butler (31.0)BEN82-73W100%0.0
12-22New Orleans (326.0)SlndH79-59W100%0.0
12-27Georgetown (25.0)BEN91-87L0%0.0
12-31Nebraska (158.0)B10A65-70W100%0.0
1-5Michigan St. (23.0)B10A70-50L0%0.0
1-10Ohio St. (41.0)B10H69-66W100%0.0
1-13Penn St. (108.0)B10H76-73W100%0.0
1-18Illinois (73.0)B10A74-80W100%0.0
1-22Maryland (13.0)B10H89-70W100%0.0
1-25Ohio St. (41.0)B10A82-70L0%0.0
1-28Purdue (55.0)B10A83-67L0%0.0
1-31Rutgers (178.0)B10H72-64W100%0.0
2-3Wisconsin (4.0)B10A92-78L0%0.0
2-8Michigan (81.0)B10H70-67W100%0.0
2-11Maryland (13.0)B10A68-66L0%0.0
2-15Minnesota (98.0)B10H90-71W100%0.0
2-19Purdue (55.0)B10H63-67L0%0.0
2-22Rutgers (178.0)B10A54-84W100%0.0
2-25Northwestern (125.0)B10A72-65L0%0.0
3-3Iowa (43.0)B10H63-77L0%0.0
3-7Michigan St. (23.0)B10H72-74L0%0.0
3-12Northwestern (125.0)B10N71-56W100%0.0
3-13Maryland (13.0)B10N75-69L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Indiana's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Indiana's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Indiana.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
IndianaB1026.1626.1655.4755.472.862.86
MarylandB105.125.1283.3383.333.423.42
Michigan St.B103.773.7765.6265.621.181.18
Ohio St.B103.663.6670.9770.971.531.53
PurdueB103.633.6361.2961.290.820.82
NorthwesternB103.633.6346.6746.67-0.24-0.24
RutgersB103.633.6333.3333.33-1.21-1.21
Penn St.B102.262.2654.5554.550.210.21
WisconsinB102.242.2490.9190.911.831.83
MichiganB102.232.2350.0050.000.000.00
MinnesotaB102.212.2154.8454.840.210.21
IllinoisB102.172.1761.2961.290.490.49
IowaB102.142.1464.5264.520.620.62
NebraskaB102.142.1443.3343.33-0.29-0.29
Texas SouthernSWAC1.681.6866.6766.670.560.56
LouisvilleACC1.661.6674.1974.190.800.80
ButlerBE1.641.6470.9770.970.690.69
SMUAmer1.621.6283.8783.871.091.09
GeorgetownBE1.611.6166.6766.670.540.54
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC1.611.6119.3519.35-0.98-0.98
LamarSlnd1.591.5944.0044.00-0.19-0.19
PittsburghACC1.561.5658.0658.060.250.25
Eastern WashingtonBSky1.561.5673.3373.330.730.73
New OrleansSlnd1.541.5432.0032.00-0.56-0.56
Savannah St.MEAC1.541.5425.0025.00-0.77-0.77
Grand CanyonWAC1.521.5253.5753.570.110.11
UNC GreensboroSC1.521.5227.5927.59-0.68-0.68
North CarolinaACC0.210.2168.5768.570.080.08
MarquetteBE0.210.2140.6240.62-0.04-0.04
VirginiaACC0.190.1990.6290.620.150.15
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.160.1656.6756.670.020.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.160.1626.9226.92-0.08-0.08
Iowa St.B120.150.1575.7675.760.070.07
SamfordSC0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
CreightonBE0.150.1542.4242.42-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.140.1475.8675.860.070.07
VillanovaBE0.140.1494.1294.120.130.13
XavierBE0.140.1461.7661.760.030.03
Seton HallBE0.140.1451.6151.610.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.140.1454.5554.550.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.140.1458.3358.330.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.140.1416.6716.67-0.09-0.09
SouthernSWAC0.140.1446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.140.140.000.00-0.14-0.14
Notre DameACC0.140.1485.2985.290.100.10
OaklandHorz0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.140.1437.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.120.1223.3323.33-0.06-0.06
WinthropBSth0.120.1255.1755.170.010.01
Miami FLACC0.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
St. John'sBE0.120.1264.5264.520.030.03
VMISC0.120.1232.1432.14-0.04-0.04
SyracuseACC0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.120.1239.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Kansas St.B120.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.120.1260.6160.610.020.02
North FloridaASun0.120.1264.5264.520.030.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.120.1240.7440.74-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.120.1262.9662.960.030.03
DukeACC0.110.1187.8887.880.090.09
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.110.1143.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.110.1125.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Central ArkansasSlnd0.110.116.906.90-0.10-0.10
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.110.1172.4172.410.050.05
SeattleWAC0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
ChattanoogaSC0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
DePaulBE0.100.1037.5037.50-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
Florida St.ACC0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
The CitadelSC0.100.1029.6329.63-0.04-0.04
ClemsonACC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0958.0658.060.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.090.0928.5728.57-0.04-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.090.0934.3834.38-0.03-0.03
FordhamA100.090.0930.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.090.0955.5655.560.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.0925.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.090.0986.6786.670.060.06
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.086.906.90-0.07-0.07
Utah ValleyWAC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
WoffordSC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.070.0717.8617.86-0.05-0.05
Montana St.BSky0.070.0720.6920.69-0.04-0.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
FurmanSC0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0771.4371.430.030.03
HamptonMEAC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.070.0739.2939.29-0.02-0.02
MontanaBSky0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.070.0762.0762.070.020.02
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
ElonCAA0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
High PointBSth0.070.0767.8667.860.030.03
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0758.8258.820.010.01
HoustonAmer0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0790.9190.910.060.06
TempleAmer0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.070.0725.8125.81-0.03-0.03
KansasB120.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Arizona St.P120.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.070.0716.1316.13-0.05-0.05
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
WagnerNEC0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
TCUB120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
MercerSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.050.05100.00100.000.050.05
LongwoodBSth0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
OregonP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
New HampshireAE0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0547.0647.06-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
TulsaAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.050.0513.3313.33-0.03-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
BucknellPat0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
DuquesneA100.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0593.9493.940.040.04
OklahomaB120.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
BYUWCC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
CampbellBSth0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
ColgatePat0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
IPFWSum0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.040.0456.6756.670.010.01
NavyPat0.040.0438.7138.71-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.040.0465.6265.620.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.040.0440.0040.00-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0374.0774.070.010.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.020.0291.1891.180.020.02
DetroitHorz0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
NJITind0.020.0256.0056.000.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
AmericanPat0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
BryantNEC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0265.5265.520.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.020.0210.0010.00-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
TexasB120.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
WyomingMWC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
AkronMAC0.020.0258.8258.820.000.00
AuburnSEC0.020.0241.1841.18-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
CornellIvy0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
DrexelCAA0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
USCP120.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01