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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Indiana

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:102.0
Current RPI:102
Expected SOS:57
Current SOS:57
Current Record:17-15
Expected Record:17-15
Current Conf Record:7-12
Expected Conf Record:7-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:98
Expected OOC SOS:220



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-15102.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Indiana.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Chicago St. (259.0)WACH100-72W100%0.0
11-12LIU Brooklyn (297.0)NECH73-72W100%0.0
11-15Samford (313.0)SCH105-59W100%0.0
11-17Stony Brook (165.0)AEH90-74W100%0.0
11-21Washington (104.0)P12N84-102W100%0.0
11-22Connecticut (22.0)AmerN58-59L0%0.0
11-26Evansville (214.0)MVCH77-46W100%0.0
12-3Syracuse (16.0)ACCA69-52L0%0.0
12-7North Florida (189.0)ASunH89-68W100%0.0
12-10Oakland (181.0)HorzH81-54W100%0.0
12-14Notre Dame (136.0)ACCN72-79L0%0.0
12-20Nicholls St. (262.0)SlndH79-66W100%0.0
12-22Kennesaw St. (324.0)ASunH90-66W100%0.0
12-31Illinois (70.0)B10A83-80L0%0.0
1-4Michigan St. (18.0)B10H56-73L0%0.0
1-11Penn St. (114.0)B10A76-79W100%0.0
1-14Wisconsin (6.0)B10H75-72W100%0.0
1-18Northwestern (123.0)B10H47-54L0%0.0
1-21Michigan St. (18.0)B10A71-66L0%0.0
1-26Illinois (70.0)B10H56-46W100%0.0
1-30Nebraska (48.0)B10A60-55L0%0.0
2-2Michigan (11.0)B10H63-52W100%0.0
2-8Minnesota (50.0)B10A66-60L0%0.0
2-12Penn St. (114.0)B10H65-66L0%0.0
2-15Purdue (145.0)B10A82-64L0%0.0
2-22Northwestern (123.0)B10A56-61W100%0.0
2-25Wisconsin (6.0)B10A69-58L0%0.0
2-27Iowa (56.0)B10H93-86W100%0.0
3-2Ohio St. (24.0)B10H72-64W100%0.0
3-5Nebraska (48.0)B10H60-70L0%0.0
3-8Michigan (11.0)B10A84-80L0%0.0
3-13Illinois (70.0)B10N54-64L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Indiana's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Indiana's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Indiana.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
IndianaB1026.2226.2247.6647.66-1.23-1.23
IllinoisB105.395.3956.6756.670.720.72
Michigan St.B103.993.9975.0075.002.002.00
MichiganB103.893.8977.4277.422.132.13
WisconsinB103.843.8480.6580.652.362.36
NorthwesternB103.823.8241.9441.94-0.62-0.62
NebraskaB103.813.8158.6258.620.660.66
Penn St.B103.803.8046.6746.67-0.25-0.25
Ohio St.B102.462.4675.7675.761.271.27
MinnesotaB102.382.3858.0658.060.380.38
IowaB102.372.3763.3363.330.630.63
PurdueB102.302.3045.1645.16-0.22-0.22
North FloridaASun1.691.6948.2848.28-0.06-0.06
Notre DameACC1.641.6445.1645.16-0.16-0.16
Chicago St.WAC1.631.6337.9337.93-0.39-0.39
Kennesaw St.ASun1.611.6114.2914.29-1.15-1.15
SyracuseACC1.611.6183.8783.871.091.09
OaklandHorz1.611.6136.6736.67-0.43-0.43
ConnecticutAmer1.591.5975.7675.760.820.82
WashingtonP121.591.5954.8454.840.150.15
EvansvilleMVC1.561.5640.0040.00-0.31-0.31
LIU BrooklynNEC1.561.5632.1432.14-0.56-0.56
Nicholls St.Slnd1.561.5648.0048.00-0.06-0.06
SamfordSC1.561.5634.4834.48-0.48-0.48
Stony BrookAE1.561.5670.9770.970.660.66
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.180.1862.5062.500.050.05
CincinnatiAmer0.170.1781.8281.820.110.11
Georgia TechACC0.170.1748.4848.48-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.170.1722.5822.58-0.09-0.09
UICHorz0.170.1713.7913.79-0.12-0.12
StanfordP120.170.1763.6463.640.050.05
Illinois St.MVC0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
BradleyMVC0.150.1537.5037.50-0.04-0.04
ValparaisoHorz0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.140.1471.8871.880.060.06
East Tennessee St.ASun0.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.130.1335.7135.71-0.04-0.04
USC UpstateASun0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
MercerASun0.130.1374.1974.190.060.06
New OrleansSlnd0.130.1336.3636.36-0.04-0.04
Northern KentuckyASun0.130.1330.0030.00-0.05-0.05
StetsonASun0.130.1322.5822.58-0.07-0.07
St. Francis NYNEC0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
Green BayHorz0.120.1277.7877.780.070.07
Miami FLACC0.120.1251.5251.520.000.00
PittsburghACC0.120.1273.5373.530.060.06
DukeACC0.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
Florida St.ACC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.120.1261.7661.760.030.03
St. John'sBE0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
VirginiaACC0.120.1282.3582.350.080.08
OregonP120.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
MissouriSEC0.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.110.1114.8114.81-0.08-0.08
McNeese St.Slnd0.110.1125.9325.93-0.05-0.05
LipscombASun0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
WagnerNEC0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
IUPUISum0.100.1010.3410.34-0.08-0.08
Youngstown St.Horz0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
BryantNEC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
AuburnSEC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
CaliforniaP120.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
IPFWSum0.100.1067.7467.740.030.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.100.1032.1432.14-0.03-0.03
DetroitHorz0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
HartfordAE0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.100.1057.1457.140.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.100.1027.5927.59-0.04-0.04
UCLAP120.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
FloridaSEC0.100.1094.1294.120.090.09
MarquetteBE0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
MaineAE0.100.1017.8617.86-0.06-0.06
UMass LowellAE0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
MarylandACC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.0930.7730.77-0.03-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0853.5753.570.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Appalachian St.SC0.080.0819.2319.23-0.05-0.05
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Oral RobertsSlnd0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
SeattleWAC0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
CreightonBE0.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.080.0813.7913.79-0.06-0.06
Wichita St.MVC0.080.08100.00100.000.080.08
Wright St.Horz0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
PennIvy0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
DePaulBE0.070.0736.3636.36-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
AlbanyAE0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
CornellIvy0.070.073.703.70-0.07-0.07
La SalleA100.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UtahP120.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
Washington St.P120.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
TempleAmer0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Iowa St.B120.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
ArizonaP120.070.0788.2488.240.050.05
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.0720.6920.69-0.04-0.04
West VirginiaB120.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.070.0738.4638.46-0.02-0.02
UNLVMWC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
ColumbiaIvy0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
LouisvilleAmer0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.060.0610.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0693.1093.100.050.05
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
DavidsonSC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
ElonSC0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
FurmanSC0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0546.1546.15-0.00-0.00
IdahoWAC0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
UMKCWAC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
LehighPat0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UABCUSA0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
XavierBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
ButlerBE0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0534.6234.62-0.02-0.02
BucknellPat0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
ClemsonACC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
ColoradoP120.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
DuquesneA100.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
MontanaBSky0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
New HampshireAE0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
Oregon St.P120.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.050.0570.3770.370.020.02
SienaMAAC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
DelawareCAA0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Loyola MDPat0.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0578.5778.570.030.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.050.0551.8551.850.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
GeorgetownBE0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
HoustonAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
KentuckySEC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
OklahomaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
PortlandWCC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
RutgersAmer0.050.0534.3834.38-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0324.0024.00-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
TroySB0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
NJITind0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Texas St.SB0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckySB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0359.2659.260.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Arizona St.P120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
ArmyPat0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
ColgatePat0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
RichmondA100.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
RiderMAAC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0287.1087.100.020.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
ToledoMAC0.020.0281.2581.250.020.02
TulaneCUSA0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
USCP120.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
AmericanPat0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
HarvardIvy0.020.0286.2186.210.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
YaleIvy0.020.0251.8551.850.000.00