live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Dec 20, 2014.


Indiana

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:57.8
Current RPI:91
Expected SOS:35
Current SOS:178
Current Record:9-2
Expected Record:20-11
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:9-2
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:61
Expected OOC SOS:122



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-511.50.11%
25-614.70.39%
24-719.41.43%
23-824.34.49%
22-930.710.09%
21-1039.215.83%
20-1149.920.74%
19-1262.619.21%
18-1376.514.06%
17-1493.08.03%
16-15108.34.01%
15-16125.21.31%
14-17145.00.23%
13-18163.20.06%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Indiana.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Mississippi Valley St. (347.0)SWACH116-65W100%0.0
11-17Texas Southern (174.6)SWACH83-64W100%0.0
11-20SMU (26.6)AmerH74-68W100%0.0
11-22Lamar (252.6)SlndH85-72W100%0.0
11-24Eastern Washington (54.8)BSkyH86-88L0%0.0
11-28UNC Greensboro (287.8)SCH87-79W100%0.0
12-2Pittsburgh (115.2)ACCH81-69W100%0.0
12-6Savannah St. (319.3)MEACH95-49W100%0.0
12-9Louisville (7.9)ACCN94-74L0%0.0
12-13Grand Canyon (288.7)WACH94-66W100%0.0
12-20Butler (36.1)BEN82-73W100%0.0
12-22New Orleans (231.0)SlndH0-094%18.6
12-27Georgetown (47.0)BEN0-048%-0.5
12-31Nebraska (101.4)B10A0-054%1.2
1-5Michigan St. (39.9)B10A0-024%-8.2
1-10Ohio St. (14.5)B10H0-031%-5.8
1-13Penn St. (97.8)B10H0-083%11.2
1-18Illinois (59.0)B10A0-033%-5.1
1-22Maryland (48.8)B10H0-063%3.9
1-25Ohio St. (14.5)B10A0-011%-14.2
1-28Purdue (77.8)B10A0-035%-4.6
1-31Rutgers (172.3)B10H0-092%16.7
2-3Wisconsin (5.6)B10A0-07%-17.6
2-8Michigan (150.1)B10H0-083%11.1
2-11Maryland (48.8)B10A0-035%-4.5
2-15Minnesota (42.8)B10H0-055%1.6
2-19Purdue (77.8)B10H0-063%3.8
2-22Rutgers (172.3)B10A0-076%8.4
2-25Northwestern (157.1)B10A0-064%4.3
3-3Iowa (60.0)B10H0-060%3.0
3-7Michigan St. (39.9)B10H0-050%0.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Indiana's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Indiana's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Indiana.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
IndianaB1027.4926.1070.7358.2311.404.29
MarylandB100.003.8190.9169.410.001.48
Michigan St.B100.233.8166.6767.620.081.34
Ohio St.B100.233.8181.8282.490.142.47
RutgersB100.003.8154.5533.760.00-1.24
PurdueB100.003.8066.6759.930.000.76
MichiganB100.212.2950.0041.280.00-0.40
NorthwesternB100.412.2763.6443.050.11-0.32
Penn St.B100.002.2791.6756.590.000.30
IllinoisB100.002.2575.0065.090.000.68
MinnesotaB100.232.2480.0068.630.140.84
WisconsinB100.002.2290.9188.690.001.72
IowaB100.002.2266.6760.070.000.45
NebraskaB100.002.2166.6744.670.00-0.24
Texas SouthernSWAC5.301.8022.2254.73-2.950.17
LouisvilleACC4.751.77100.0084.434.751.22
SMUAmer5.321.7380.0078.413.190.98
ButlerBE4.551.7280.0070.232.730.70
GeorgetownBE0.211.7270.0059.490.080.33
LamarSlnd4.981.7016.6737.29-3.32-0.43
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC4.551.6910.0017.69-3.64-1.09
Eastern WashingtonBSky4.981.6755.5675.370.550.85
PittsburghACC4.551.6677.7853.512.530.12
New OrleansSlnd0.001.6420.0048.25-0.00-0.06
Savannah St.MEAC4.771.6420.0028.34-2.86-0.71
Grand CanyonWAC4.551.6140.0046.72-0.91-0.11
UNC GreensboroSC4.551.6122.2236.64-2.53-0.43
MarquetteBE0.000.2460.0048.980.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.430.2172.7374.850.200.10
VirginiaACC0.000.18100.0086.080.000.13
VillanovaBE0.000.16100.0082.970.000.11
Seton HallBE0.000.1690.0067.380.000.06
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.1618.1837.71-0.00-0.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.160.009.06-0.00-0.13
Notre DameACC0.000.1691.6777.120.000.08
Incarnate WordSlnd0.210.1580.0076.450.120.08
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.150.0017.97-0.00-0.10
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.210.1533.3334.30-0.07-0.05
CreightonBE0.000.1475.0052.140.000.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.210.1450.0071.260.000.06
SamfordSC0.230.1433.3330.28-0.08-0.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.210.140.0023.69-0.21-0.07
Iowa St.B120.320.1490.0065.480.260.04
St. John'sBE0.000.1388.8965.170.000.04
Kansas St.B120.430.1363.6440.190.12-0.03
Miami FLACC0.210.1381.8266.010.130.04
MonmouthMAAC0.210.1350.0058.370.000.02
SyracuseACC0.000.1360.0058.120.000.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.130.0034.33-0.00-0.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.130.0027.67-0.00-0.06
DukeACC0.000.13100.0087.090.000.10
OaklandHorz0.230.1327.2732.45-0.10-0.05
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.1320.0044.37-0.00-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.130.0017.69-0.00-0.08
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.230.1255.5673.740.030.06
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.1214.2915.15-0.00-0.09
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.1216.6736.63-0.00-0.03
SeattleWAC0.230.1133.3343.83-0.08-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.210.1140.0049.39-0.04-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.230.1133.3343.14-0.08-0.02
The CitadelSC0.000.1114.2932.16-0.00-0.04
VMISC0.000.1133.3338.93-0.00-0.02
WinthropBSth0.410.1125.0044.27-0.21-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.230.1175.0066.220.110.04
DePaulBE0.000.1160.0034.160.00-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.000.1175.0057.390.000.02
XavierBE0.000.1172.7367.590.000.04
Florida St.ACC0.000.1154.5541.980.00-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.100.0028.43-0.00-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.1033.3362.72-0.000.03
ClemsonACC0.000.1060.0043.890.00-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1016.6743.20-0.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.1075.0061.480.000.02
North FloridaASun0.000.1050.0057.820.000.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.100.0039.10-0.00-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.1055.5660.980.000.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.1066.6758.210.000.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.1016.6740.27-0.00-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.1020.0045.74-0.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.1066.6778.020.000.05
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.320.0933.3340.63-0.11-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.210.090.0011.94-0.21-0.07
Idaho St.BSky0.210.0911.1128.88-0.16-0.04
Montana St.BSky0.210.0920.0026.07-0.12-0.04
FurmanSC0.000.0822.2231.81-0.00-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0820.0040.93-0.00-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0870.0064.680.000.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.230.0830.0038.57-0.09-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.320.0842.8648.87-0.05-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.080.0014.00-0.00-0.06
TulaneAmer0.410.0888.8955.860.320.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.450.0857.1455.330.060.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0862.5041.790.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.410.0818.1820.86-0.26-0.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0833.3361.74-0.000.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.0845.4549.62-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.230.0866.6761.790.080.02
MarshallCUSA0.430.0822.2236.53-0.24-0.02
KansasB120.000.0890.0070.680.000.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0830.0043.15-0.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0845.4537.60-0.00-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0866.6742.600.00-0.01
FordhamA100.000.0828.5727.11-0.00-0.04
George WashingtonA100.000.0866.6765.500.000.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.0880.0053.260.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.230.0830.0038.01-0.09-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.0830.0028.65-0.00-0.03
MissouriSEC0.000.0840.0032.26-0.00-0.03
Virginia TechACC0.000.0860.0038.030.00-0.02
TCUB120.210.06100.0067.700.210.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.230.0671.4363.770.100.02
IdahoBSky0.000.0637.5052.01-0.000.00
MercerSC0.000.0644.4444.02-0.00-0.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0625.0052.35-0.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.000.0650.0042.090.00-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0642.8641.81-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0627.2735.36-0.00-0.02
WoffordSC0.000.0677.7875.550.000.03
Weber St.BSky0.000.0637.5044.33-0.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.210.0618.1830.76-0.13-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0633.3337.91-0.00-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0625.0033.40-0.00-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0616.6733.39-0.00-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0011.59-0.00-0.04
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0650.0058.070.000.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0660.0062.070.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0640.0041.32-0.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.000.0663.6456.430.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0660.0056.620.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.0655.5635.900.00-0.02
UMKCWAC0.000.0620.0040.84-0.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.230.0590.9169.030.190.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.430.0533.3349.35-0.14-0.00
ElonCAA0.230.0544.4451.07-0.030.00
HawaiiBW0.230.0566.6754.470.080.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.430.0550.0037.570.00-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.230.0520.0025.85-0.14-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0516.6735.27-0.00-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.230.0554.5559.560.020.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0566.6764.770.000.02
BucknellPat0.000.0540.0036.66-0.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.210.0577.7870.890.110.02
Central MichiganMAC0.210.0585.7170.530.150.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0554.5564.070.000.02
FloridaSEC0.230.0563.6465.220.060.02
GonzagaWCC0.430.0590.9190.540.350.04
KentuckySEC0.210.05100.0096.290.210.05
OregonP120.000.0570.0057.440.000.01
UMBCAE0.000.0518.1825.30-0.00-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.230.0550.0051.710.000.00
Arizona St.P120.000.0554.5548.490.00-0.00
BaylorB120.230.0590.0073.240.180.02
BrownIvy0.000.0540.0033.80-0.00-0.02
BYUWCC0.000.0570.0068.340.000.02
CampbellBSth0.000.0525.0043.93-0.00-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0520.0027.29-0.00-0.02
ColgatePat0.000.0520.0042.59-0.00-0.01
DuquesneA100.230.0537.5034.06-0.06-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0537.5039.65-0.00-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0537.5050.31-0.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.210.0530.0029.75-0.08-0.02
IPFWSum0.000.0550.0054.190.000.00
IUPUISum0.000.0527.2728.86-0.00-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.0563.6455.660.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.210.0533.3328.79-0.07-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0575.0058.760.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0516.6737.21-0.00-0.01
NavyPat0.000.0520.0022.16-0.00-0.03
New HampshireAE0.000.0550.0060.410.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.210.0542.8633.27-0.03-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0590.9183.090.000.03
OklahomaB120.210.0570.0062.710.080.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0588.8963.020.000.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0550.0053.250.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0536.3648.18-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0544.4436.80-0.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0555.5665.210.000.02
TennesseeSEC0.430.0555.5646.290.05-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.000.0550.0050.490.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.0563.6467.210.000.02
WagnerNEC0.000.0512.5030.56-0.00-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.000.0560.0057.890.000.01
DenverSum0.000.0345.4555.13-0.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.0354.5557.570.000.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0354.5544.930.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0370.0061.320.000.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0316.6726.98-0.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.320.0350.0050.060.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0336.3646.72-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.210.0350.0068.770.000.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0330.0043.74-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.000.0380.0063.910.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0338.4644.61-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0344.4455.37-0.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0336.3648.28-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0337.5056.46-0.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.230.030.008.60-0.23-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.0366.6773.310.000.01
San FranciscoWCC0.230.0350.0054.170.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0314.2929.82-0.00-0.01
WashingtonP120.230.03100.0075.440.230.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.230.0345.4543.23-0.02-0.00
ArizonaP120.000.03100.0082.630.000.02
ArkansasSEC0.210.0380.0072.200.120.01
DetroitHorz0.000.0340.0048.02-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.000.0385.7172.910.000.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0372.7362.220.000.01
NJITind0.000.0341.6743.68-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.000.0355.5658.650.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0330.0039.59-0.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0360.0047.170.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.0350.0043.310.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.210.0337.5063.95-0.050.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.210.0355.5655.710.020.00
WyomingMWC0.210.0380.0073.540.120.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0362.5059.050.000.00
AkronMAC0.000.0360.0056.150.000.00
AmericanPat0.000.0363.6463.240.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0350.0039.790.00-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0322.2229.80-0.00-0.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0363.6464.880.000.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0377.7872.890.000.01
BryantNEC0.000.0328.5745.89-0.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0318.1822.49-0.00-0.01
CornellIvy0.000.0355.5648.710.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.000.0350.0046.690.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.000.0322.2235.90-0.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.230.0344.4450.41-0.030.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0377.7870.160.000.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0366.6762.580.000.01
Green BayHorz0.000.0375.0077.010.000.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.0357.1453.770.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0336.3650.71-0.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.210.0333.3328.13-0.07-0.01
MaineAE0.210.0311.1120.80-0.16-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0330.0031.48-0.00-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.210.0344.4437.40-0.02-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.230.0312.5029.51-0.17-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0355.5655.280.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.210.0342.8636.81-0.03-0.01
Oregon St.P120.210.0377.7856.220.110.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.0366.6755.670.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.230.0372.7372.580.100.01
St. BonaventureA100.230.0377.7865.110.130.01
TexasB120.000.0390.9179.980.000.02
UABCUSA0.000.0330.0036.69-0.00-0.01
USCP120.000.0360.0036.410.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0355.5652.610.000.00