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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Indiana

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:79.0
Current RPI:79
Expected SOS:37
Current SOS:37
Current Record:18-15
Expected Record:18-15
Current Conf Record:8-12
Expected Conf Record:8-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:74
Expected OOC SOS:143



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-1579.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Indiana.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Kansas (4.0)B12N99-103W100%0.0
11-16UMass Lowell (309.0)AEH100-78W100%0.0
11-19Liberty (172.0)BSthH87-48W100%0.0
11-22Fort Wayne (178.0)SumA71-68L0%0.0
11-27Mississippi Valley St. (334.0)SWACH85-52W100%0.0
11-30North Carolina (5.0)ACCH76-67W100%0.0
12-2SIU Edwardsville (333.0)OVCH83-60W100%0.0
12-4Southeast Missouri St. (274.0)OVCH83-55W100%0.0
12-10Houston Baptist (175.0)SlndH103-61W100%0.0
12-17Butler (15.0)BEN83-78L0%0.0
12-19Delaware St. (332.0)MEACH103-56W100%0.0
12-22Austin Peay (261.0)OVCH97-62W100%0.0
12-28Nebraska (107.0)B10H83-87L0%0.0
12-31Louisville (7.0)ACCN62-77L0%0.0
1-3Wisconsin (35.0)B10H68-75L0%0.0
1-7Illinois (62.0)B10H96-80W100%0.0
1-10Maryland (36.0)B10A75-72L0%0.0
1-15Rutgers (177.0)B10H76-57W100%0.0
1-18Penn St. (101.0)B10A75-78W100%0.0
1-21Michigan St. (51.0)B10H82-75W100%0.0
1-26Michigan (25.0)B10A90-60L0%0.0
1-29Northwestern (50.0)B10A68-55L0%0.0
2-1Penn St. (101.0)B10H110-102W100%0.0
2-5Wisconsin (35.0)B10A65-60L0%0.0
2-9Purdue (19.0)B10H64-69L0%0.0
2-12Michigan (25.0)B10H63-75L0%0.0
2-15Minnesota (20.0)B10A75-74L0%0.0
2-21Iowa (81.0)B10A96-90L0%0.0
2-25Northwestern (50.0)B10H63-62W100%0.0
2-28Purdue (19.0)B10A86-75L0%0.0
3-4Ohio St. (90.0)B10A92-96W100%0.0
3-9Iowa (81.0)B10N73-95W100%0.0
3-10Wisconsin (35.0)B10N70-60L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Indiana's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Indiana's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Indiana.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
IndianaB1026.1526.1549.6249.62-0.20-0.20
WisconsinB105.175.1770.9770.972.172.17
NorthwesternB103.763.7668.7568.751.411.41
MichiganB103.753.7566.6766.671.251.25
PurdueB103.673.6776.6776.671.961.96
IowaB103.623.6256.6756.670.480.48
Penn St.B103.613.6148.3948.39-0.12-0.12
RutgersB102.252.2545.1645.16-0.22-0.22
IllinoisB102.232.2356.6756.670.300.30
Michigan St.B102.212.2159.3859.380.410.41
MinnesotaB102.202.2071.8871.880.960.96
NebraskaB102.202.2034.4834.48-0.68-0.68
Ohio St.B102.142.1454.8454.840.210.21
MarylandB102.142.1473.3373.331.001.00
Austin PeayOVC1.671.6733.3333.33-0.56-0.56
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC1.661.6622.5822.58-0.91-0.91
Southeast Missouri St.OVC1.651.6543.3343.33-0.22-0.22
Fort WayneSum1.621.6255.5655.560.180.18
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC1.621.6218.5218.52-1.02-1.02
North CarolinaACC1.611.6181.2581.251.001.00
UMass LowellAE1.591.5934.4834.48-0.49-0.49
LouisvilleACC1.591.5974.1974.190.770.77
LibertyBSth1.561.5657.1457.140.220.22
Delaware St.MEAC1.561.5627.5927.59-0.70-0.70
ButlerBE1.561.5673.3373.330.730.73
Houston BaptistSlnd1.561.5652.0052.000.060.06
KansasB121.541.5490.3290.321.241.24
Notre DameACC0.240.2473.5373.530.110.11
MarquetteBE0.220.2261.2961.290.050.05
DukeACC0.210.2177.1477.140.110.11
IUPUISum0.190.1940.0040.00-0.04-0.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.190.1925.0025.00-0.09-0.09
St. John'sBE0.170.1742.4242.42-0.03-0.03
VirginiaACC0.160.1668.7568.750.060.06
PittsburghACC0.160.1648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.160.1644.4444.44-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.160.1645.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.160.1661.2961.290.040.04
DePaulBE0.140.1428.1228.12-0.06-0.06
CreightonBE0.140.1472.7372.730.060.06
GeorgetownBE0.140.1443.7543.75-0.02-0.02
SyracuseACC0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.140.1410.3410.34-0.11-0.11
TexasB120.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Nebraska OmahaSum0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.130.1323.0823.08-0.07-0.07
Morehead St.OVC0.130.1342.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.120.1268.9768.970.050.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.120.1244.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
Iowa St.B120.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
Florida A&MMEAC0.120.1217.8617.86-0.08-0.08
Virginia TechACC0.120.1268.7568.750.040.04
OklahomaB120.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.110.1119.2319.23-0.06-0.06
Tennessee St.OVC0.100.1053.5753.570.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
StetsonASun0.100.1027.5927.59-0.05-0.05
RadfordBSth0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.100.1070.0070.000.040.04
Stony BrookAE0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.100.1076.6776.670.050.05
AlbanyAE0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.1067.6567.650.030.03
VillanovaBE0.100.1091.1891.180.080.08
NJITASun0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
West VirginiaB120.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
Oklahoma St.B120.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.090.0975.7675.760.050.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.090.0977.4277.420.050.05
Green BayHorz0.090.0955.1755.170.010.01
KentuckySEC0.090.0985.2985.290.070.07
Miami FLACC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
HowardMEAC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Georgia TechACC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
UCLAP120.090.0987.8887.880.070.07
Wake ForestACC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
LamarSlnd0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
South DakotaSum0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
BelmontOVC0.080.0877.7877.780.040.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0821.4321.43-0.04-0.04
WinthropBSth0.080.0880.0080.000.050.05
Texas TechB120.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
BinghamtonAE0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
UMBCAE0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
HawaiiBW0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.070.0784.8584.850.050.05
HartfordAE0.070.0728.1228.12-0.03-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0773.3373.330.030.03
New OrleansSlnd0.070.0760.7160.710.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
XavierBE0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0740.7440.74-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
ClemsonACC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Kansas St.B120.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.070.0788.2488.240.050.05
Idaho St.BSky0.070.0713.3313.33-0.05-0.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0632.0032.00-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
DenverSum0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
High PointBSth0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
DetroitHorz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
New HampshireAE0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.053.333.33-0.05-0.05
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
CornellIvy0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
North TexasCUSA0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.056.906.90-0.04-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Arizona St.P120.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
AuburnSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
Utah St.MWC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
DavidsonA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0534.3834.38-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
BryantNEC0.040.0435.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.040.0464.5264.520.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.040.0467.7467.740.020.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
LipscombASun0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Saint LouisA100.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0378.5778.570.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
AmericanPat0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
BYUWCC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
TowsonCAA0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
UtahP120.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.020.0296.9796.970.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
NavyPat0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.020.0230.3030.30-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
SeattleWAC0.020.0237.0437.04-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
StanfordP120.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
UNLVMWC0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.020.0281.8281.820.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
TulaneAmer0.020.0219.3519.35-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01