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Through games of Feb 12, 2016.


Indiana

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:31.1
Current RPI:34
Expected SOS:80
Current SOS:117
Current Record:20-5
Expected Record:23-8
Current Conf Record:10-2
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-0
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:86
Expected OOC SOS:191



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-514.92.38%
25-619.214.59%
24-724.932.28%
23-833.832.85%
22-946.614.69%
21-1059.82.99%
20-1171.70.21%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Indiana.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Eastern Illinois (264.5)OVCH88-49W100%0.0
11-16Austin Peay (230.5)OVCH102-76W100%0.0
11-19Creighton (78.4)BEH86-65W100%0.0
11-23Wake Forest (132.6)ACCN78-82L0%0.0
11-24St. John's (232.9)BEN83-73W100%0.0
11-25UNLV (121.0)MWCN72-69L0%0.0
11-30Alcorn St. (279.7)SWACH112-70W100%0.0
12-2Duke (17.5)ACCA94-74L0%0.0
12-5Morehead St. (153.3)OVCH92-59W100%0.0
12-9IPFW (82.2)SumH90-65W100%0.0
12-12McNeese St. (323.6)SlndH105-60W100%0.0
12-19Notre Dame (31.2)ACCN80-73W100%0.0
12-22Kennesaw St. (282.6)ASunH99-72W100%0.0
12-30Rutgers (280.1)B10A72-79W100%0.0
1-2Nebraska (149.5)B10A69-79W100%0.0
1-5Wisconsin (56.8)B10H59-58W100%0.0
1-10Ohio St. (90.7)B10H85-60W100%0.0
1-16Minnesota (243.6)B10A63-70W100%0.0
1-19Illinois (157.1)B10H103-69W100%0.0
1-23Northwestern (120.6)B10H89-57W100%0.0
1-26Wisconsin (56.8)B10A82-79L0%0.0
1-30Minnesota (243.6)B10H74-68W100%0.0
2-2Michigan (47.4)B10A67-80W100%0.0
2-6Penn St. (131.2)B10A68-63L0%0.0
2-11Iowa (8.5)B10H85-78W100%0.0
2-14Michigan St. (18.7)B10A0-027%-6.7
2-17Nebraska (149.5)B10H0-087%12.2
2-20Purdue (14.6)B10H0-056%1.7
2-25Illinois (157.1)B10A0-082%10.1
3-1Iowa (8.5)B10A0-033%-4.9
3-6Maryland (5.4)B10H0-061%3.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Indiana's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Indiana's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Indiana.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
IndianaB1026.2326.1080.8175.9416.1613.54
IllinoisB102.463.8347.8346.49-0.11-0.27
NebraskaB102.463.7854.1753.820.200.29
WisconsinB104.253.7863.6457.471.160.56
IowaB102.293.7882.6182.111.492.43
MinnesotaB104.333.7827.2729.20-1.97-1.57
RutgersB102.452.3522.7321.04-1.34-1.36
PurdueB100.502.2780.0079.040.301.32
MichiganB102.422.2573.9169.051.160.86
Michigan St.B100.502.2580.0081.840.301.43
NorthwesternB102.452.2566.6764.160.820.64
Penn St.B102.372.2547.8344.99-0.10-0.23
Ohio St.B102.422.2262.5057.420.600.33
MarylandB100.452.2287.5085.230.341.56
Notre DameACC2.171.8073.9170.251.040.73
Austin PeayOVC2.211.7641.6744.38-0.37-0.20
CreightonBE2.131.7566.6764.140.710.49
Wake ForestACC2.131.7539.1337.83-0.46-0.42
Eastern IllinoisOVC2.121.7040.9142.64-0.39-0.25
DukeACC2.081.6973.9170.871.000.71
St. John'sBE2.081.6926.0924.24-1.00-0.87
Morehead St.OVC2.081.6754.5555.490.190.18
IPFWSum2.081.6773.9171.110.990.70
Alcorn St.SWAC2.001.6142.1141.90-0.32-0.26
Kennesaw St.ASun2.001.6126.0927.36-0.96-0.73
McNeese St.Slnd2.001.6123.5332.42-1.06-0.57
UNLVMWC2.001.6150.0053.480.000.11
Western IllinoisSum0.290.2531.5832.03-0.11-0.09
MarquetteBE0.210.2164.0057.890.060.03
GeorgetownBE0.290.2156.0052.860.030.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.210.2016.6719.49-0.14-0.12
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.220.199.0917.13-0.18-0.13
South DakotaSum0.250.1944.0043.56-0.03-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.120.1872.0069.130.050.07
Tennessee St.OVC0.220.1868.1865.190.080.05
Tennessee MartinOVC0.180.1850.0050.500.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.170.1765.2264.330.050.05
LouisvilleACC0.120.1679.1776.000.070.08
ClemsonACC0.250.1658.3358.410.040.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.170.1650.0048.970.00-0.00
XavierBE0.210.1687.5081.840.150.10
Miami FLACC0.170.1682.6177.600.110.09
Boston CollegeACC0.170.1629.1726.68-0.07-0.07
North CarolinaACC0.120.1683.3378.390.080.09
SyracuseACC0.250.1668.0064.070.090.04
DePaulBE0.160.1633.3334.02-0.05-0.05
VillanovaBE0.160.1687.5086.850.120.12
BelmontOVC0.170.1568.0066.640.060.05
Murray St.OVC0.130.1547.8350.90-0.010.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.130.1513.0415.26-0.09-0.10
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.220.1476.1972.410.110.06
Nebraska OmahaSum0.170.1458.3358.580.030.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.1424.0025.68-0.05-0.07
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.130.1420.0022.24-0.08-0.08
North FloridaASun0.170.1462.5064.110.040.04
IUPUISum0.120.1438.4638.50-0.03-0.03
PittsburghACC0.090.1472.7367.600.040.05
Florida St.ACC0.080.1366.6763.330.030.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.210.1360.8762.470.050.03
Seton HallBE0.170.1370.8368.090.070.05
Virginia TechACC0.170.1352.0048.910.01-0.00
ButlerBE0.120.1370.8368.990.050.05
Chicago St.WAC0.160.134.357.71-0.15-0.11
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.170.1250.0049.320.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.130.1224.0024.16-0.07-0.06
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.100.1214.2924.87-0.07-0.06
Green BayHorz0.170.1156.5257.690.020.02
OklahomaB120.180.1186.9682.620.130.07
South Dakota St.Sum0.120.1173.9174.640.060.05
SamfordSC0.120.1140.0041.68-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.120.1160.8759.830.030.02
VanderbiltSEC0.120.1158.3359.970.020.02
UMKCWAC0.120.1128.5732.73-0.05-0.04
Georgia TechACC0.120.1154.1751.980.010.00
Iowa St.B120.080.1170.8367.960.030.04
TempleAmer0.170.1165.2262.360.050.03
VirginiaACC0.120.1183.3378.460.080.06
Central ArkansasSlnd0.040.0923.8129.52-0.02-0.04
New OrleansSlnd0.150.0926.3232.42-0.07-0.03
LSUSEC0.140.0962.5059.070.030.02
UCLAP120.140.0954.1752.980.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.090.0950.0051.150.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.130.0931.8235.12-0.05-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.140.0915.0018.12-0.10-0.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.090.0945.4554.18-0.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0947.8348.57-0.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.080.0928.0030.50-0.04-0.03
StetsonASun0.080.0922.7327.37-0.05-0.04
Incarnate WordSlnd0.100.0955.5652.480.010.00
MercerSC0.130.0866.6767.110.040.03
NJITASun0.120.0856.0055.640.020.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.100.0835.0034.87-0.03-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.130.0828.5734.10-0.05-0.03
Arizona St.P120.130.0856.0053.630.020.01
Western CarolinaSC0.090.0831.8234.54-0.03-0.03
ElonCAA0.120.0850.0050.080.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.080.0843.4837.80-0.01-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.040.0860.8760.430.010.02
New MexicoMWC0.090.0858.3360.710.010.02
Wichita St.MVC0.090.0873.9176.700.040.04
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0883.3383.710.060.05
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0870.8370.130.030.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0814.2920.63-0.06-0.05
Louisiana MonroeSB0.120.0845.4549.06-0.01-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.130.0837.5037.68-0.03-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0830.4332.24-0.03-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.089.0912.25-0.07-0.06
Rhode IslandA100.040.0856.0055.750.000.01
MissouriSEC0.080.0833.3330.27-0.03-0.03
SienaMAAC0.120.0865.3864.920.040.02
VCUA100.120.0870.8371.030.050.03
YaleIvy0.080.0875.0075.100.040.04
LamarSlnd0.000.0630.0029.17-0.00-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0618.1821.06-0.04-0.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0617.6526.60-0.04-0.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0636.8442.87-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0628.5733.29-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.100.0650.0054.220.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.050.0661.9065.340.010.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.100.0650.0049.890.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.090.0625.0025.09-0.05-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.040.0650.0052.880.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.080.0621.7422.42-0.05-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.040.0656.0054.080.010.00
OaklandHorz0.050.0665.3865.500.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.080.0660.8755.980.020.01
Colorado St.MWC0.040.0654.5552.530.000.00
DenverSum0.040.0652.0049.300.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.090.0663.6461.560.020.01
NevadaMWC0.040.0657.1455.350.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0641.6742.39-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.040.0669.5770.090.020.02
WyomingMWC0.040.0643.4842.54-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0526.0928.41-0.04-0.02
UtahP120.080.0570.8368.530.030.02
Utah St.MWC0.090.0547.6249.27-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.040.0587.5083.730.030.04
DrakeMVC0.040.0520.8323.28-0.02-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.040.0543.4845.20-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0537.5037.41-0.02-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.090.0580.7781.890.050.03
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0545.8342.30-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.040.0552.1751.840.000.00
Texas TechB120.080.0560.8755.310.020.01
UMBCAE0.080.0523.0825.89-0.04-0.03
BryantNEC0.080.0524.0024.92-0.04-0.03
BucknellPat0.080.0552.1754.970.000.01
George WashingtonA100.090.0575.0071.980.040.02
HowardMEAC0.040.0536.3638.95-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.0545.8343.78-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0529.1733.75-0.00-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.040.0542.3146.12-0.01-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.040.0572.0071.570.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.040.0540.0043.21-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0566.6766.320.000.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.040.059.5210.67-0.03-0.04
KentuckySEC0.080.0575.0072.620.040.02
North DakotaBSky0.080.0545.0048.15-0.01-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.040.0550.0048.120.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.040.0583.3379.820.030.03
VMISC0.080.0519.0519.67-0.05-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0347.6249.39-0.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0360.0062.260.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0345.0049.16-0.01-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0372.2275.710.020.02
Texas St.SB0.060.0340.0038.87-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.040.0360.8757.170.010.00
DavidsonA100.040.0361.9058.180.010.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.040.0360.8760.240.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0383.3382.090.030.02
HoustonAmer0.040.0370.8367.980.020.01
Indiana St.MVC0.040.0350.0049.490.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.040.0325.0033.24-0.02-0.01
PortlandWCC0.050.0338.4638.04-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.040.0334.7832.39-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.040.0330.0031.76-0.02-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.050.0354.1754.210.000.00
West VirginiaB120.040.0379.1778.100.020.02
ArizonaP120.040.0380.0078.730.030.02
Miami OHMAC0.040.0334.7832.89-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.040.0364.0064.470.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.040.0327.2726.46-0.02-0.01
OregonP120.040.0379.1777.220.030.02
San Jose St.MWC0.040.0323.8122.85-0.02-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.040.0314.2914.92-0.03-0.02
TroySB0.040.0322.7324.37-0.02-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.040.0345.8341.64-0.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.040.0382.6183.030.030.02
Western MichiganMAC0.040.0331.8232.68-0.02-0.01
WoffordSC0.040.0345.8348.12-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.040.0350.0052.940.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.040.0312.5013.26-0.03-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.040.0337.5042.32-0.01-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0321.7422.78-0.00-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.040.0357.1457.670.010.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.040.0352.1753.740.000.00
FordhamA100.040.0352.3850.690.000.00
LibertyBSth0.040.0334.7836.54-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.040.0323.0823.85-0.02-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0373.6875.880.000.01
RichmondA100.040.0356.5255.820.010.00
RiderMAAC0.000.0338.4641.36-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.040.0386.9682.930.030.02
South CarolinaSEC0.040.0386.9680.430.030.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.040.0340.0043.49-0.01-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.040.0382.6183.030.030.02
TexasB120.040.0366.6762.200.010.01
WagnerNEC0.040.0360.8762.520.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.0324.0026.42-0.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.040.0354.1754.420.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.040.0342.3144.49-0.01-0.00
ColoradoP120.040.0370.8365.570.020.01
ColumbiaIvy0.040.0368.1865.570.010.01
DrexelCAA0.040.0313.0416.41-0.03-0.02
DuquesneA100.040.0360.8756.270.010.00
FairfieldMAAC0.040.0354.1754.100.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0326.0927.89-0.00-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.040.0342.8641.32-0.01-0.00
KansasB120.000.0382.6179.210.000.02
Kent St.MAC0.040.0365.2260.710.010.01
LehighPat0.000.0339.1342.83-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.040.0347.8351.93-0.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.040.0372.7370.510.020.01
Loyola MDPat0.040.0333.3335.19-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.040.0343.4842.42-0.01-0.00
MemphisAmer0.040.0358.3359.310.010.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0329.1733.08-0.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.040.0331.8232.47-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0348.0048.59-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.040.0360.0057.680.010.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0358.3363.160.000.01
RadfordBSth0.040.0352.1754.090.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.040.0333.3336.30-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.040.0352.1754.140.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.040.0368.1871.340.010.01
UTSACUSA0.040.0313.0412.96-0.03-0.02
VermontAE0.000.0352.0054.840.000.00