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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Indiana

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:24.0
Current RPI:24
Expected SOS:87
Current SOS:87
Current Record:25-7
Expected Record:25-7
Current Conf Record:15-4
Expected Conf Record:15-4
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-0
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:85
Expected OOC SOS:192



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-724.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Indiana.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Eastern Illinois (271.0)OVCH88-49W100%0.0
11-16Austin Peay (184.0)OVCH102-76W100%0.0
11-19Creighton (100.0)BEH86-65W100%0.0
11-23Wake Forest (159.0)ACCN78-82L0%0.0
11-24St. John's (246.0)BEN83-73W100%0.0
11-25UNLV (147.0)MWCN72-69L0%0.0
11-30Alcorn St. (253.0)SWACH112-70W100%0.0
12-2Duke (20.0)ACCA94-74L0%0.0
12-5Morehead St. (127.0)OVCH92-59W100%0.0
12-9IPFW (71.0)SumH90-65W100%0.0
12-12McNeese St. (341.0)SlndH105-60W100%0.0
12-19Notre Dame (31.0)ACCN80-73W100%0.0
12-22Kennesaw St. (263.0)ASunH99-72W100%0.0
12-30Rutgers (294.0)B10A72-79W100%0.0
1-2Nebraska (165.0)B10A69-79W100%0.0
1-5Wisconsin (43.0)B10H59-58W100%0.0
1-10Ohio St. (74.0)B10H85-60W100%0.0
1-16Minnesota (257.0)B10A63-70W100%0.0
1-19Illinois (149.0)B10H103-69W100%0.0
1-23Northwestern (115.0)B10H89-57W100%0.0
1-26Wisconsin (43.0)B10A82-79L0%0.0
1-30Minnesota (257.0)B10H74-68W100%0.0
2-2Michigan (56.0)B10A67-80W100%0.0
2-6Penn St. (125.0)B10A68-63L0%0.0
2-11Iowa (28.0)B10H85-78W100%0.0
2-14Michigan St. (12.0)B10A88-69L0%0.0
2-17Nebraska (165.0)B10H80-64W100%0.0
2-20Purdue (15.0)B10H77-73W100%0.0
2-25Illinois (149.0)B10A47-74W100%0.0
3-1Iowa (28.0)B10A78-81W100%0.0
3-6Maryland (14.0)B10H80-62W100%0.0
3-11Michigan (56.0)B10N69-72L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Indiana's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Indiana's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Indiana.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
IndianaB1026.0826.0879.2379.2315.2515.25
IllinoisB103.833.8346.8846.88-0.24-0.24
NebraskaB103.763.7650.0050.000.000.00
MichiganB103.753.7564.5264.521.091.09
MinnesotaB103.723.7227.5927.59-1.67-1.67
IowaB103.723.7272.4172.411.671.67
WisconsinB103.703.7063.3363.330.990.99
PurdueB102.332.3378.7978.791.341.34
RutgersB102.302.3020.0020.00-1.38-1.38
Michigan St.B102.242.2484.8584.851.561.56
MarylandB102.232.2377.4277.421.221.22
NorthwesternB102.212.2164.5264.520.640.64
Penn St.B102.212.2148.3948.39-0.07-0.07
Ohio St.B102.192.1962.5062.500.550.55
Notre DameACC1.761.7667.7467.740.620.62
Austin PeayOVC1.701.7050.0050.000.000.00
CreightonBE1.681.6858.0658.060.270.27
Wake ForestACC1.681.6833.3333.33-0.56-0.56
DukeACC1.661.6668.7568.750.620.62
Eastern IllinoisOVC1.641.6440.7440.74-0.30-0.30
St. John'sBE1.641.6423.3323.33-0.87-0.87
Morehead St.OVC1.611.6160.7160.710.350.35
IPFWSum1.611.6173.3373.330.750.75
Alcorn St.SWAC1.561.5648.1548.15-0.06-0.06
Kennesaw St.ASun1.561.5632.1432.14-0.56-0.56
McNeese St.Slnd1.561.5628.0028.00-0.69-0.69
UNLVMWC1.561.5650.0050.000.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.230.2329.1729.17-0.10-0.10
MarquetteBE0.220.2260.6160.610.050.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.220.2248.4848.48-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.210.2154.8454.840.020.02
South DakotaSum0.200.2040.0040.00-0.04-0.04
GeorgetownBE0.200.2045.4545.45-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.180.1851.7251.720.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.180.1864.2964.290.050.05
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.180.1821.4321.43-0.10-0.10
Tennessee TechOVC0.180.1860.7160.710.040.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.180.1822.5822.58-0.10-0.10
XavierBE0.170.1784.3884.380.120.12
North CarolinaACC0.170.1782.3582.350.110.11
ProvidenceBE0.170.1769.7069.700.070.07
BelmontOVC0.160.1663.3363.330.040.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.150.1522.8622.86-0.08-0.08
ClemsonACC0.150.1554.8454.840.010.01
Seton HallBE0.150.1575.7675.760.080.08
DePaulBE0.150.1529.0329.03-0.06-0.06
SyracuseACC0.150.1559.3859.380.030.03
LouisvilleACC0.150.1574.1974.190.070.07
VillanovaBE0.150.1585.2985.290.100.10
Boston CollegeACC0.150.1521.8821.88-0.08-0.08
Miami FLACC0.140.1478.1278.120.080.08
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.130.1311.1111.11-0.10-0.10
Nebraska OmahaSum0.130.1355.1755.170.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.130.1376.6776.670.070.07
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.120.1224.2424.24-0.06-0.06
IUPUISum0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
North FloridaASun0.120.1263.3363.330.030.03
PittsburghACC0.120.1264.5264.520.040.04
Virginia TechACC0.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
ButlerBE0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.120.123.453.45-0.11-0.11
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.110.1120.6920.69-0.06-0.06
Green BayHorz0.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
OklahomaB120.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
Northern KentuckyHorz0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
South Dakota St.Sum0.100.1077.4277.420.060.06
UMKCWAC0.100.1032.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Air ForceMWC0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
ElonCAA0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.100.1057.5857.580.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
VirginiaACC0.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
SamfordSC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Iowa St.B120.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
ConnecticutAmer0.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.090.0930.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.0916.6716.67-0.06-0.06
Nicholls St.Slnd0.090.0925.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
New OrleansSlnd0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
LSUSEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
UCLAP120.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.0814.2914.29-0.06-0.06
MarshallCUSA0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
StetsonASun0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
MercerSC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.080.0856.0056.000.010.01
LipscombASun0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
Wichita St.MVC0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
UMass LowellAE0.070.0735.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0784.3884.380.050.05
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
VCUA100.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
BryantNEC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
MissouriSEC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
YaleIvy0.070.0777.7877.780.040.04
LamarSlnd0.060.0626.9226.92-0.03-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0620.8320.83-0.04-0.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
OaklandHorz0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
DaytonA100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
DenverSum0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
DrakeMVC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Texas TechB120.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
UMBCAE0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
UtahP120.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Utah St.MWC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
VMISC0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
SMUAmer0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
TexasB120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
FloridaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
TennesseeSEC0.050.0544.1244.12-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0382.1482.140.020.02
Texas St.SB0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0379.3179.310.020.02
HoustonAmer0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
DavidsonA100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
ArizonaP120.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0357.6957.690.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
FordhamA100.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
RichmondA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
WagnerNEC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0265.5265.520.010.01
DrexelCAA0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
LibertyBSth0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.020.0277.7877.780.010.01
RadfordBSth0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.020.0239.3939.39-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
UTSACUSA0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
MemphisAmer0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
TroySB0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
WoffordSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
LehighPat0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.020.0262.8662.860.010.01
VermontAE0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00