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Through games of Nov 24, 2014.


Indiana

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:86.8
Current RPI:232
Expected SOS:43
Current SOS:291
Current Record:4-1
Expected Record:18-13
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:4-1
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:119
Expected OOC SOS:172



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-59.30.03%
25-613.80.09%
24-717.50.46%
23-826.21.24%
22-934.63.58%
21-1044.96.69%
20-1155.711.94%
19-1269.315.59%
18-1383.818.30%
17-1498.616.57%
16-15115.212.38%
15-16132.07.63%
14-17148.93.49%
13-18167.31.41%
12-19186.50.48%
11-20205.60.10%
10-21214.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Indiana.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Mississippi Valley St. (346.0)SWACH116-65W100%0.0
11-17Texas Southern (252.4)SWACH83-64W100%0.0
11-20SMU (29.4)AmerH74-68W100%0.0
11-22Lamar (294.3)SlndH85-72W100%0.0
11-24Eastern Washington (68.3)BSkyH86-88L0%0.0
11-28UNC Greensboro (323.8)SCH0-097%22.8
12-2Pittsburgh (105.2)ACCH0-068%5.5
12-6Savannah St. (288.2)MEACH0-098%23.9
12-9Louisville (9.3)ACCN0-018%-10.9
12-13Grand Canyon (254.3)WACH0-092%16.6
12-20Butler (81.7)BEN0-052%0.5
12-22New Orleans (282.4)SlndH0-096%21.0
12-27Georgetown (46.7)BEN0-047%-0.8
12-31Nebraska (85.4)B10A0-040%-3.0
1-5Michigan St. (29.3)B10A0-020%-10.1
1-10Ohio St. (35.9)B10H0-043%-2.0
1-13Penn St. (147.7)B10H0-080%10.1
1-18Illinois (46.1)B10A0-029%-6.7
1-22Maryland (59.5)B10H0-056%1.9
1-25Ohio St. (35.9)B10A0-022%-9.2
1-28Purdue (61.4)B10A0-031%-5.9
1-31Rutgers (184.5)B10H0-085%12.7
2-3Wisconsin (7.5)B10A0-011%-15.0
2-8Michigan (31.6)B10H0-047%-1.1
2-11Maryland (59.5)B10A0-033%-5.3
2-15Minnesota (60.4)B10H0-055%1.5
2-19Purdue (61.4)B10H0-054%1.3
2-22Rutgers (184.5)B10A0-068%5.5
2-25Northwestern (172.6)B10A0-066%5.1
3-3Iowa (46.5)B10H0-048%-0.5
3-7Michigan St. (29.3)B10H0-040%-3.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Indiana's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Indiana's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Indiana.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
IndianaB1031.6726.1363.1651.768.330.92
MarylandB100.003.83100.0067.480.001.34
Ohio St.B100.003.83100.0074.260.001.86
RutgersB100.003.8366.6736.260.00-1.05
Michigan St.B100.003.8275.0073.550.001.80
PurdueB100.003.8275.0062.630.000.97
MichiganB100.002.32100.0070.630.000.96
NorthwesternB100.002.30100.0041.730.00-0.38
Penn St.B100.002.2980.0044.720.00-0.24
IllinoisB100.002.27100.0065.700.000.71
MinnesotaB100.002.2766.6762.870.000.58
IowaB100.002.2460.0064.440.000.65
NebraskaB100.002.2466.6752.550.000.11
WisconsinB100.002.21100.0084.440.001.52
Texas SouthernSWAC11.251.810.0039.85-11.25-0.37
LouisvilleACC0.001.78100.0081.360.001.11
SMUAmer12.921.7366.6771.834.310.75
LamarSlnd11.251.700.0035.55-11.25-0.49
ButlerBE0.001.70100.0060.360.000.35
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC10.001.690.0017.51-10.00-1.10
GeorgetownBE0.001.67100.0062.090.000.40
Eastern WashingtonBSky12.501.6766.6773.384.170.78
PittsburghACC0.001.6666.6752.250.000.07
New OrleansSlnd0.001.650.0036.14-0.00-0.46
Savannah St.MEAC0.001.6440.0035.39-0.00-0.48
Grand CanyonWAC0.001.6150.0052.400.000.08
UNC GreensboroSC0.001.610.0029.06-0.00-0.68
North CarolinaACC0.000.21100.0070.800.000.09
MarquetteBE0.000.2050.0035.180.00-0.06
Seton HallBE0.000.17100.0065.090.000.05
Notre DameACC0.000.1780.0072.950.000.08
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.1620.0029.26-0.00-0.07
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.160.0020.03-0.00-0.10
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.1650.0063.110.000.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.160.0029.60-0.00-0.06
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.15100.0051.650.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.14100.0060.130.000.03
St. John'sBE0.000.14100.0051.940.000.01
VillanovaBE0.000.14100.0073.380.000.07
SamfordSC0.000.1440.0039.62-0.00-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.140.0069.16-0.000.05
DukeACC0.000.14100.0085.500.000.10
OaklandHorz0.000.140.0029.78-0.00-0.06
SyracuseACC0.000.1475.0065.950.000.04
Miami FLACC0.000.14100.0078.600.000.08
MonmouthMAAC0.000.1450.0054.950.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.130.0039.51-0.00-0.03
VirginiaACC0.000.13100.0074.230.000.06
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.130.0031.92-0.00-0.05
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.130.0045.64-0.00-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.130.0021.40-0.00-0.07
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.1350.0064.210.000.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.130.0030.13-0.00-0.05
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.120.0024.93-0.00-0.06
DePaulBE0.000.12100.0036.280.00-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.000.12100.0071.170.000.05
XavierBE0.000.12100.0080.240.000.07
ChattanoogaSC0.000.110.0046.88-0.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.11100.0050.790.000.00
The CitadelSC0.000.110.0026.64-0.00-0.05
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.1133.3339.78-0.00-0.02
SeattleWAC0.000.1125.0044.61-0.00-0.01
VMISC0.000.1133.3337.04-0.00-0.03
WinthropBSth0.000.1133.3354.48-0.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.1125.0042.98-0.00-0.02
Kansas St.B120.000.1175.0057.780.000.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.110.0022.66-0.00-0.06
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.11100.0060.870.000.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.11100.0050.840.000.00
North FloridaASun0.000.110.0044.98-0.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.1160.0051.710.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.110.0043.12-0.00-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.110.0064.44-0.000.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1125.0040.65-0.00-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.110.0040.20-0.00-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.1133.3330.55-0.00-0.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.100.0053.97-0.000.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.100.0029.61-0.00-0.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.100.0065.66-0.000.03
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.09100.0031.710.00-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.090.0021.49-0.00-0.05
FurmanSC0.000.0933.3323.97-0.00-0.04
Idaho St.BSky0.000.090.0028.35-0.00-0.04
Montana St.BSky0.000.090.0021.27-0.00-0.05
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0933.3354.64-0.000.01
Iowa St.B120.000.09100.0067.390.000.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.080.0029.05-0.00-0.04
CincinnatiAmer0.000.08100.0058.760.000.01
Utah ValleyWAC1.250.0866.6749.970.42-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.080.0055.84-0.000.01
TulaneAmer1.250.0850.0035.290.00-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0866.6747.180.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.000.08100.0063.820.000.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0820.0034.54-0.00-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.000.0820.0044.69-0.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0840.0038.53-0.00-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0840.0066.65-0.000.03
Wake ForestACC0.000.0860.0045.520.00-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0825.0052.27-0.000.00
High PointBSth0.000.0875.0055.840.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0866.6751.200.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.08100.0051.910.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.0866.6733.810.00-0.03
FordhamA100.000.080.0024.54-0.00-0.04
George WashingtonA100.000.0866.6774.460.000.04
Miami OHMAC0.000.0866.6732.480.00-0.03
TCUB121.250.06100.0057.581.250.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0666.6757.950.000.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0650.0046.080.00-0.00
MercerSC0.000.0633.3352.75-0.000.00
MontanaBSky0.000.0633.3351.67-0.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.000.06100.0049.160.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0650.0045.970.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0034.67-0.00-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.000.0625.0053.38-0.000.00
WoffordSC0.000.0680.0076.960.000.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0625.0039.30-0.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0675.0068.180.000.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.060.0031.81-0.00-0.02
HawaiiBW0.000.0660.0050.930.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.060.0043.39-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0650.0032.210.00-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0675.0065.610.000.02
FloridaSEC0.000.0666.6768.660.000.02
ElonCAA0.000.0633.3341.47-0.00-0.01
OregonP120.000.0675.0068.720.000.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.060.0040.87-0.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0666.6759.480.000.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0620.0035.87-0.00-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0022.57-0.00-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0675.0070.270.000.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0640.0059.10-0.000.01
IPFWSum0.000.0666.6760.760.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.0650.0034.020.00-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.060.0039.25-0.00-0.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0650.0066.640.000.02
NavyPat0.000.0620.0033.06-0.00-0.02
RiderMAAC0.000.0650.0047.540.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0633.3340.57-0.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0666.6751.260.000.00
TempleAmer0.000.0650.0052.920.000.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0675.0058.430.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.06100.0047.530.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.000.0625.0046.39-0.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.000.0520.0035.82-0.00-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0533.3346.01-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.050.0033.20-0.00-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.000.0525.0020.27-0.00-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.050.0041.06-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC1.250.0533.3347.25-0.42-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.05100.0053.170.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0575.0047.380.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0520.0025.79-0.00-0.03
DuquesneA100.000.05100.0054.620.000.00
GonzagaWCC1.250.05100.0086.001.250.04
KentuckySEC0.000.05100.0087.980.000.04
TennesseeSEC1.250.0550.0041.580.00-0.01
UMBCAE0.000.050.0038.08-0.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0533.3343.21-0.00-0.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0575.0056.870.000.01
BrownIvy0.000.0520.0037.46-0.00-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.050.0031.34-0.00-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0550.0038.810.00-0.01
New HampshireAE0.000.050.0041.46-0.00-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.05100.0055.770.000.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.050.0028.50-0.00-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0533.3344.46-0.00-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0566.6753.640.000.00
WagnerNEC0.000.050.0042.28-0.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.05100.0043.380.00-0.01
CampbellBSth0.000.050.0031.43-0.00-0.02
ColgatePat0.000.0525.0038.68-0.00-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0575.0047.460.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0520.0053.69-0.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.000.0560.0041.560.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0566.6757.340.000.01
DenverSum0.000.0366.6764.880.000.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0375.0050.400.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0340.0050.60-0.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0375.0069.180.000.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0333.3327.72-0.00-0.01
Texas St.SB1.670.0366.6748.390.56-0.00
KansasB120.000.0366.6758.820.000.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0333.3350.07-0.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0325.0042.83-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.000.0380.0059.570.000.01
ArizonaP120.000.03100.0074.960.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0333.3344.26-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.000.0350.0054.870.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.03100.0060.950.000.01
HowardMEAC0.000.030.0038.25-0.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.0360.0056.290.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0316.6730.01-0.00-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0366.6746.410.00-0.00
NJITind0.000.0320.0027.91-0.00-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0325.0057.73-0.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.030.0050.64-0.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.030.0022.70-0.00-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.03100.0059.320.000.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.03100.0062.840.000.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0019.76-0.00-0.02
WashingtonP120.000.03100.0056.070.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0340.0038.36-0.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.03100.0074.590.000.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0375.0071.990.000.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0375.0063.510.000.01
BryantNEC0.000.0350.0054.140.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.03100.0074.040.000.01
Green BayHorz0.000.0350.0068.360.000.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0350.0067.730.000.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.03100.0064.010.000.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0350.0032.050.00-0.01
MaineAE0.000.030.0017.71-0.00-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0325.0035.54-0.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0360.0056.230.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0333.3324.20-0.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0366.6753.410.000.00
UABCUSA0.000.0333.3342.50-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.030.0029.28-0.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.030.0055.80-0.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0375.0056.390.000.00
WyomingMWC0.000.03100.0066.880.000.01
AmericanPat0.000.0360.0057.920.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.030.0033.26-0.00-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0350.0050.520.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC1.250.03100.0047.401.25-0.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0350.0043.080.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0366.6738.720.00-0.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0366.6745.890.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0366.6753.220.000.00
AkronMAC0.000.0375.0069.590.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0350.0032.620.00-0.01
BaylorB120.000.03100.0070.100.000.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0340.0043.71-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.000.0333.3337.47-0.00-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0034.81-0.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0320.0035.62-0.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0350.0043.570.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0325.0052.91-0.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0350.0043.250.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.03100.0071.240.000.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.0366.6756.000.000.00
TexasB120.000.03100.0079.170.000.02
USCP120.000.0340.0028.54-0.00-0.01