Indiana

Conference:	B10
Expected RPI:	17.0
Current RPI:	17
Expected SOS:	31
Current SOS:	31
Current Record:	25-8
Expected Record:	25-8
Current Conf Record:	12-8
Expected Conf Record:	12-8
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	4-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	8-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	6-0
Current OOC Record:	13-0
Expected OOC Record:	13-0
Expected OOC RPI:	13
Expected OOC SOS:	164

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
25-8	17.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Indiana.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Stony Brook (152.0)	AE	H	96-66	W	100%
11-13	Chattanooga (310.0)	SC	H	78-53	W	100%
11-16	Evansville (131.0)	MVC	A	73-94	W	100%
11-19	Savannah St. (191.0)	MEAC	H	94-65	W	100%
11-21	Gardner Webb (293.0)	BSth	H	73-49	W	100%
11-27	Butler (113.0)	Horz	H	75-59	W	100%
11-30	North Carolina St. (49.0)	ACC	A	75-86	W	100%
12-4	Stetson (267.0)	ASun	H	84-50	W	100%
12-10	Kentucky (2.0)	SEC	H	73-72	W	100%
12-17	Notre Dame (39.0)	BE	N	58-69	W	100%
12-19	Howard (284.0)	MEAC	H	107-50	W	100%
12-22	MD Baltimore County (339.0)	AE	H	89-47	W	100%
12-28	Michigan St. (4.0)	B10	A	80-65	L	0%
12-31	Ohio St. (7.0)	B10	H	74-70	W	100%
1-5	Michigan (14.0)	B10	H	73-71	W	100%
1-8	Penn St. (161.0)	B10	A	82-88	W	100%
1-12	Minnesota (89.0)	B10	H	74-77	L	0%
1-15	Ohio St. (7.0)	B10	A	80-63	L	0%
1-18	Nebraska (154.0)	B10	A	70-69	L	0%
1-22	Penn St. (161.0)	B10	H	73-54	W	100%
1-26	Wisconsin (23.0)	B10	A	57-50	L	0%
1-29	Iowa (130.0)	B10	H	103-89	W	100%
2-1	Michigan (14.0)	B10	A	68-56	L	0%
2-4	Purdue (48.0)	B10	A	61-78	W	100%
2-9	Illinois (92.0)	B10	H	84-71	W	100%
2-15	Northwestern (63.0)	B10	H	71-66	W	100%
2-19	Iowa (130.0)	B10	A	78-66	L	0%
2-22	North Carolina Central (233.0)	MEAC	H	75-56	W	100%
2-26	Minnesota (89.0)	B10	A	50-69	W	100%
2-28	Michigan St. (4.0)	B10	H	70-55	W	100%
3-4	Purdue (48.0)	B10	H	85-74	W	100%
3-8	Penn St. (161.0)	B10	N	75-58	W	100%
3-9	Wisconsin (23.0)	B10	N	71-79	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Indiana's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Indiana's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Indiana.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Indiana	B10	26.25	26.25	76.74	76.74	14.04	14.04
Penn St.	B10	5.20	5.20	41.38	41.38	-0.90	-0.90
Michigan St.	B10	3.84	3.84	80.65	80.65	2.35	2.35
Wisconsin	B10	3.82	3.82	70.97	70.97	1.60	1.60
Ohio St.	B10	3.80	3.80	81.25	81.25	2.38	2.38
Purdue	B10	3.80	3.80	67.74	67.74	1.35	1.35
Michigan	B10	3.79	3.79	73.33	73.33	1.77	1.77
Iowa	B10	3.78	3.78	51.61	51.61	0.12	0.12
Minnesota	B10	3.73	3.73	58.06	58.06	0.60	0.60
Northwestern	B10	2.35	2.35	60.00	60.00	0.47	0.47
Nebraska	B10	2.32	2.32	37.93	37.93	-0.56	-0.56
Illinois	B10	2.28	2.28	54.84	54.84	0.22	0.22
Savannah St.	MEAC	1.74	1.74	65.52	65.52	0.54	0.54
Butler	Horz	1.66	1.66	59.38	59.38	0.31	0.31
North Carolina Central	MEAC	1.61	1.61	48.15	48.15	-0.06	-0.06
Kentucky	SEC	1.61	1.61	96.97	96.97	1.51	1.51
Chattanooga	SC	1.61	1.61	28.57	28.57	-0.69	-0.69
Stony Brook	AE	1.59	1.59	72.41	72.41	0.71	0.71
Gardner Webb	BSth	1.59	1.59	34.48	34.48	-0.49	-0.49
Howard	MEAC	1.57	1.57	31.03	31.03	-0.59	-0.59
MD Baltimore County	AE	1.57	1.57	13.79	13.79	-1.13	-1.13
North Carolina St.	ACC	1.54	1.54	66.67	66.67	0.51	0.51
Stetson	ASun	1.54	1.54	29.63	29.63	-0.63	-0.63
Evansville	MVC	1.54	1.54	51.72	51.72	0.05	0.05
Notre Dame	BE	1.52	1.52	68.75	68.75	0.57	0.57
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.23	0.23	31.03	31.03	-0.09	-0.09
North Carolina	ACC	0.21	0.21	85.29	85.29	0.15	0.15
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.18	0.18	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.18	0.18	10.34	10.34	-0.14	-0.14
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.17	0.17	38.46	38.46	-0.04	-0.04
Hartford	AE	0.17	0.17	29.03	29.03	-0.07	-0.07
Creighton	MVC	0.17	0.17	84.85	84.85	0.12	0.12
Boston College	ACC	0.16	0.16	29.03	29.03	-0.07	-0.07
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.16	0.16	58.06	58.06	0.03	0.03
Duke	ACC	0.16	0.16	81.82	81.82	0.10	0.10
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.16	0.16	25.81	25.81	-0.08	-0.08
Binghamton	AE	0.15	0.15	6.45	6.45	-0.13	-0.13
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.15	0.15	48.15	48.15	-0.01	-0.01
Radford	BSth	0.14	0.14	13.33	13.33	-0.11	-0.11
Bradley	MVC	0.14	0.14	21.88	21.88	-0.08	-0.08
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.14	0.14	27.59	27.59	-0.06	-0.06
Florida	SEC	0.14	0.14	69.70	69.70	0.05	0.05
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.13	0.13	20.69	20.69	-0.08	-0.08
Hampton	MEAC	0.13	0.13	36.36	36.36	-0.03	-0.03
Albany	AE	0.13	0.13	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Vermont	AE	0.13	0.13	67.65	67.65	0.04	0.04
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.13	0.13	6.67	6.67	-0.11	-0.11
Maine	AE	0.12	0.12	39.29	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
North Florida	ASun	0.12	0.12	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.12	0.12	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
High Point	BSth	0.12	0.12	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Western Carolina	SC	0.12	0.12	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.12	0.12	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.12	0.12	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.12	0.12	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.12	0.12	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
South Florida	BE	0.12	0.12	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.12	0.12	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.12	0.12	80.65	80.65	0.07	0.07
Valparaiso	Horz	0.11	0.11	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Wright St.	Horz	0.11	0.11	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.10	0.10	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.10	0.10	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
Boston University	AE	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
New Hampshire	AE	0.10	0.10	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.10	0.10	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Appalachian St.	SC	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Drake	MVC	0.10	0.10	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.10	0.10	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Rutgers	BE	0.10	0.10	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.10	0.10	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.10	0.10	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Arkansas	SEC	0.09	0.09	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.09	0.09	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Clemson	ACC	0.09	0.09	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.09	0.09	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Mississippi	SEC	0.09	0.09	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.09	0.09	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Kansas	B12	0.09	0.09	81.82	81.82	0.06	0.06
Virginia	ACC	0.09	0.09	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.09	0.09	29.63	29.63	-0.04	-0.04
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.09	0.09	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.09	0.09	13.79	13.79	-0.07	-0.07
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.09	0.09	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Louisville	BE	0.09	0.09	74.29	74.29	0.04	0.04
Miami FL	ACC	0.09	0.09	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.09	0.09	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.09	0.09	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Mercer	ASun	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Georgia Southern	SC	0.08	0.08	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Rider	MAAC	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Elon	SC	0.07	0.07	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Samford	SC	0.07	0.07	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
Illinois St.	MVC	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.07	0.07	73.33	73.33	0.03	0.03
NC Asheville	BSth	0.07	0.07	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
Towson	CAA	0.07	0.07	3.12	3.12	-0.07	-0.07
Western Illinois	Sum	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wofford	SC	0.07	0.07	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.07	0.07	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.07	0.07	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Southern California	P12	0.07	0.07	18.75	18.75	-0.04	-0.04
Duquesne	A10	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Lafayette	Pat	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Long Island	NEC	0.07	0.07	75.76	75.76	0.04	0.04
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
St. John's	BE	0.07	0.07	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.07	0.07	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.07	0.07	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Chicago St.	GWC	0.07	0.07	10.71	10.71	-0.05	-0.05
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.07	0.07	20.69	20.69	-0.04	-0.04
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.07	0.07	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.07	0.07	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.07	0.07	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Maryland	ACC	0.07	0.07	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
DePaul	BE	0.07	0.07	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Xavier	A10	0.07	0.07	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.07	0.07	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.07	0.07	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.07	0.07	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Lamar	Slnd	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Belmont	ASun	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
East Carolina	CUSA	0.05	0.05	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon	P12	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Davidson	SC	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
NC Greensboro	SC	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
American	Pat	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.05	0.05	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Christian	MWC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Wichita St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	83.87	83.87	0.03	0.03
Winthrop	BSth	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.05	0.05	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Old Dominion	CAA	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	19.23	19.23	-0.03	-0.03
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Memphis	CUSA	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Oakland	Sum	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Missouri	B12	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.02	0.02
Brown	Ivy	0.05	0.05	23.33	23.33	-0.02	-0.02
Bucknell	Pat	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.05	0.05	23.08	23.08	-0.02	-0.02
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Colgate	Pat	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Lehigh	Pat	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.05	16.13	16.13	-0.03	-0.03
Temple	A10	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
West Virginia	BE	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.05	0.05	93.94	93.94	0.04	0.04
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.04	0.04	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Central Florida	CUSA	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
James Madison	CAA	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Wagner	NEC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
College of Charleston	SC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Longwood	ind	0.03	0.03	22.22	22.22	-0.01	-0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Utah Valley	GWC	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Columbia	Ivy	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Delaware	CAA	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.03	0.03	10.34	10.34	-0.02	-0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.03	0.03	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.03	0.03	28.00	28.00	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
William & Mary	CAA	0.03	0.03	16.13	16.13	-0.02	-0.02
Baylor	B12	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Richmond	A10	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.02	0.02	32.00	32.00	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.02	0.02	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Bryant	NEC	0.02	0.02	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
Cincinnati	BE	0.02	0.02	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.02	0.02	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Pittsburgh	BE	0.02	0.02	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Providence	BE	0.02	0.02	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.02	0.02	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Villanova	BE	0.02	0.02	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.02	0.02	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Marist	MAAC	0.02	0.02	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Portland	WCC	0.02	0.02	20.00	20.00	-0.01	-0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.02	0.02	60.71	60.71	0.00	0.00
Texas	B12	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.00	0.00