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Through games of Jan 21, 2018.


Indiana

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:115.7
Current RPI:111
Expected SOS:54
Current SOS:80
Current Record:11-8
Expected Record:15-15
Current Conf Record:4-3
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:191
Expected OOC SOS:172



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-938.00.03%
20-1049.30.24%
19-1159.11.51%
18-1270.25.38%
17-1384.013.38%
16-14100.221.15%
15-15118.625.54%
14-16137.820.18%
13-17156.69.48%
12-18174.32.68%
11-19192.10.42%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Indiana.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Indiana St. (140.9)MVCH69-90L0%0.0
11-12Howard (331.8)MEACH86-77W100%0.0
11-15Seton Hall (25.9)BEA84-68L0%0.0
11-19South Florida (296.6)AmerH70-53W100%0.0
11-22Arkansas St. (291.0)SBH87-70W100%0.0
11-24Eastern Michigan (177.1)MACH87-67W100%0.0
11-29Duke (3.1)ACCH81-91L0%0.0
12-2Michigan (37.6)B10A69-55L0%0.0
12-4Iowa (156.8)B10H77-64W100%0.0
12-9Louisville (23.4)ACCA71-62L0%0.0
12-16Notre Dame (57.8)ACCN80-77W100%0.0
12-18Fort Wayne (189.6)SumH72-92L0%0.0
12-21Tennessee Tech (170.9)OVCH87-59W100%0.0
12-29Youngstown St. (314.7)HorzH79-51W100%0.0
1-2Wisconsin (128.8)B10A71-61L0%0.0
1-6Minnesota (98.1)B10A71-75W100%0.0
1-9Penn St. (114.6)B10H74-70W100%0.0
1-14Northwestern (127.8)B10H66-46W100%0.0
1-19Michigan St. (21.5)B10A85-57L0%0.0
1-22Maryland (45.2)B10H0-042%-2.3
1-24Illinois (161.2)B10A0-041%-2.4
1-28Purdue (6.5)B10H0-014%-12.1
1-30Ohio St. (21.1)B10A0-018%-10.2
2-3Michigan St. (21.5)B10H0-018%-10.2
2-5Rutgers (187.9)B10A0-052%0.5
2-9Minnesota (98.1)B10H0-055%1.3
2-14Illinois (161.2)B10H0-064%4.0
2-17Iowa (156.8)B10A0-041%-2.5
2-20Nebraska (100.5)B10A0-040%-2.7
2-23Ohio St. (21.1)B10H0-037%-3.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Indiana's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Indiana's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Indiana.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
IndianaB1026.3026.1052.0045.451.05-2.37
Michigan St.B102.833.9684.2182.661.942.59
IowaB102.763.9350.0045.020.00-0.39
Ohio St.B100.383.9180.9576.780.242.09
MinnesotaB102.763.9066.6760.040.920.78
IllinoisB100.323.9047.3744.06-0.02-0.46
RutgersB100.452.3755.0046.640.04-0.16
NebraskaB100.382.3266.6759.820.130.46
WisconsinB102.692.3247.3744.51-0.14-0.25
PurdueB100.392.3290.4888.440.311.78
Penn St.B102.952.3265.0057.610.890.35
MichiganB102.762.3275.0069.731.380.91
MarylandB100.312.2970.0065.490.130.71
NorthwesternB102.822.2957.8952.060.440.09
DukeACC2.701.7888.8984.722.101.23
LouisvilleACC2.771.7877.7868.781.540.67
Notre DameACC2.771.7766.6763.120.920.47
South FloridaAmer2.861.7636.8426.99-0.75-0.81
Arkansas St.SB2.851.7529.4132.22-1.18-0.62
HowardMEAC2.861.7511.1128.27-2.22-0.76
Eastern MichiganMAC2.841.7550.0048.780.00-0.04
Seton HallBE2.701.7273.6866.821.280.58
Fort WayneSum2.631.6750.0049.830.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC2.631.6741.1844.02-0.46-0.20
Tennessee TechOVC2.631.6761.1155.090.580.17
Youngstown St.Horz2.631.6722.2224.35-1.46-0.86
North CarolinaACC0.200.2780.0075.060.120.14
DePaulBE0.270.2542.1134.31-0.04-0.08
OaklandHorz0.380.2061.9065.160.090.06
ButlerBE0.140.1966.6763.070.050.05
Virginia TechACC0.130.1968.4257.740.050.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.210.1720.0023.34-0.12-0.09
DrakeMVC0.200.1755.0048.980.02-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.070.1642.1140.46-0.01-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.260.160.003.07-0.26-0.15
PittsburghACC0.270.1640.0030.87-0.05-0.06
Miami OHMAC0.070.1547.0641.41-0.00-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.280.1525.0028.01-0.14-0.06
Oral RobertsSum0.190.1430.0032.52-0.08-0.05
SyracuseACC0.160.1468.4261.230.060.03
Appalachian St.SB0.070.1433.3337.23-0.02-0.04
Georgia TechACC0.200.1452.6343.110.01-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.140.1465.0054.670.040.01
Florida St.ACC0.140.1473.6869.640.070.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.200.1465.0056.340.060.02
SouthernSWAC0.130.1427.7840.97-0.06-0.02
ClemsonACC0.140.1484.2173.240.090.06
Miami FLACC0.130.1477.7870.480.070.06
VirginiaACC0.070.1494.7486.140.060.10
Ball St.MAC0.230.1261.1158.700.050.02
Central MichiganMAC0.220.1262.5058.690.050.02
South DakotaSum0.210.1273.6872.380.100.05
DetroitHorz0.200.1221.0525.97-0.12-0.06
Northern IllinoisMAC0.150.1241.1839.16-0.03-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.1272.2272.980.030.05
EvansvilleMVC0.220.1252.6347.520.01-0.01
ValparaisoMVC0.140.1147.3748.77-0.01-0.00
Green BayHorz0.210.1125.0027.94-0.10-0.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.1115.7920.91-0.05-0.07
Austin PeayOVC0.070.1144.4446.00-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.1143.7554.11-0.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.1126.3231.50-0.03-0.04
North FloridaASun0.220.1131.5835.15-0.08-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.150.1140.0043.35-0.03-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.140.1183.3381.370.090.07
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.200.1137.5037.68-0.05-0.03
Stony BrookAE0.070.1136.8445.21-0.02-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.130.1123.5332.57-0.07-0.04
CreightonBE0.200.1175.0070.700.100.04
MarquetteBE0.130.1168.4260.550.050.02
ProvidenceBE0.060.1170.0060.470.020.02
Southern UtahBSky0.130.1137.5033.78-0.03-0.03
St. John'sBE0.070.1147.3742.16-0.00-0.02
OhioMAC0.160.0947.0648.41-0.01-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.140.0942.1146.00-0.02-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0936.8432.76-0.02-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.090.009.09-0.07-0.07
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0955.0052.470.010.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.0970.0068.220.030.03
StetsonASun0.140.0833.3336.93-0.05-0.02
IUPUIHorz0.070.0827.7829.83-0.03-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.140.0845.0047.07-0.01-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0835.2940.48-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.140.0868.4270.810.050.03
ElonCAA0.210.0852.6351.080.010.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.089.5217.90-0.05-0.05
Wichita St.Amer0.210.0878.9577.380.120.05
GeorgetownBE0.140.0868.4254.070.050.01
GonzagaWCC0.070.0880.9583.260.040.05
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0857.1460.410.010.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.140.0827.7834.50-0.06-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0870.0071.230.030.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.120.0810.5316.75-0.10-0.05
East CarolinaAmer0.130.0842.1132.47-0.02-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0852.6347.390.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.070.0865.0058.540.020.01
UCFAmer0.070.0868.4260.860.020.02
XavierBE0.130.0885.7180.080.090.05
AkronMAC0.160.0647.0644.91-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.0658.8249.760.02-0.00
DenverSum0.070.0633.3336.48-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0644.4450.31-0.010.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0666.6767.700.000.02
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0642.8635.24-0.01-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0652.9452.230.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.070.0644.4444.92-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.140.0650.0054.190.000.00
BradleyMVC0.000.0665.0057.880.000.01
Illinois St.MVC0.150.0647.3746.09-0.01-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0678.9574.190.040.03
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0670.0068.300.030.02
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0644.4450.08-0.010.00
KentuckySEC0.140.0673.6867.970.070.02
BelmontOVC0.070.0671.4374.660.030.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0627.7838.140.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.140.0631.5832.72-0.05-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.0610.0019.63-0.06-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0666.6765.370.020.02
Georgia St.SB0.070.0666.6765.520.020.02
Little RockSB0.070.0622.2225.25-0.04-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0626.6729.04-0.03-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.140.0623.5328.69-0.07-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.070.0670.5975.950.030.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0655.5656.740.000.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0666.6773.210.000.03
Wright St.Horz0.070.0668.4269.250.030.02
North TexasCUSA0.070.0644.4446.65-0.01-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.070.0645.0048.56-0.01-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.130.0641.1838.47-0.02-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.140.0650.0052.460.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0629.4133.930.00-0.02
FurmanSC0.140.0666.6768.540.050.02
George WashingtonA100.130.0645.0043.48-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.070.0652.9459.340.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0629.4139.63-0.03-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.140.0627.7831.71-0.06-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.000.0616.6716.160.00-0.04
LSUSEC0.130.0661.1153.170.030.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0668.4263.650.000.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0666.6763.200.000.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0683.3384.240.000.04
UNLVMWC0.000.0673.6865.260.000.02
BryantNEC0.070.059.5217.12-0.06-0.04
NJITASun0.070.0538.8942.61-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.130.0542.1146.09-0.02-0.00
TexasB120.130.0563.1657.630.030.01
Texas TechB120.130.0578.9571.810.080.02
UCLAP120.130.0565.0062.050.040.01
VCUA100.130.0560.0059.700.030.01
AlabamaSEC0.060.0568.4258.980.020.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0516.6724.26-0.04-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.060.0568.4264.200.020.02
ColoradoP120.060.0560.0053.720.010.00
George MasonA100.130.0545.0041.30-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.0536.8444.11-0.02-0.01
HarvardIvy0.060.0537.5046.69-0.01-0.00
HoustonAmer0.070.0578.9572.990.040.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.055.8819.35-0.06-0.03
Iowa St.B120.060.0561.1147.220.01-0.00
MassachusettsA100.060.0550.0046.810.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0557.1453.050.010.00
NortheasternCAA0.000.0563.1663.220.000.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0557.8958.850.000.01
SMUAmer0.070.0570.0070.570.030.02
St. Francis PANEC0.140.0552.9459.250.010.01
StanfordP120.000.0555.0050.370.000.00
TempleAmer0.070.0552.6351.740.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0521.0544.260.00-0.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0518.7518.360.00-0.03
TulaneAmer0.000.0563.1657.890.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0555.0053.320.000.00
UABCUSA0.060.0561.1164.130.010.02
USC UpstateASun0.060.0511.1118.00-0.05-0.03
VillanovaBE0.000.0594.7490.310.000.04
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0538.8935.37-0.01-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.000.0564.7159.990.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0372.2274.930.000.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.070.0377.7879.150.040.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0352.6355.290.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.070.0337.5031.76-0.02-0.01
AuburnSEC0.070.0389.4777.000.060.02
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0378.9576.750.040.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.070.0352.9452.650.000.00
AmericanPat0.070.0326.3228.11-0.03-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0361.9063.140.020.01
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0322.2228.59-0.04-0.01
DaytonA100.070.0347.3750.94-0.000.00
HawaiiBW0.070.0368.7563.990.030.01
Idaho St.BSky0.070.0343.7540.93-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0316.6724.91-0.05-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0318.7536.820.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0358.8257.140.010.00
PennIvy0.070.0364.7162.720.020.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.0350.0045.870.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0342.1143.510.00-0.00
TCUB120.070.0373.6865.600.030.01
Texas St.SB0.070.0357.8950.210.010.00
TroySB0.000.0335.2942.760.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0322.2227.33-0.04-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0360.0062.030.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.070.0345.0045.49-0.01-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.070.0333.3334.10-0.02-0.01
BrownIvy0.070.0350.0045.140.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.000.0361.9068.020.000.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0352.3848.530.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.070.0321.4326.35-0.04-0.01
DelawareCAA0.070.0347.3743.02-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.000.0331.5829.060.00-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0338.8940.780.00-0.01
HartfordAE0.000.0350.0045.930.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0338.8943.430.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0333.3333.77-0.02-0.01
La SalleA100.070.0340.0042.69-0.01-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.070.0322.2228.66-0.04-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0342.1144.96-0.01-0.00
OklahomaB120.070.0377.7867.910.040.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.070.0330.0033.47-0.03-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0352.9455.030.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0366.6768.730.000.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0333.3335.21-0.02-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.060.0317.6523.86-0.04-0.01
UMBCAE0.000.0355.5655.540.000.00
AlbanyAE0.070.0371.4370.240.030.01
ArizonaP120.000.0380.0078.940.000.02
BaylorB120.070.0361.1156.090.010.00
BinghamtonAE0.060.0342.1139.94-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.060.0347.0647.41-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0323.5325.64-0.03-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0389.4785.550.050.02
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0320.0032.25-0.04-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0338.8944.080.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.070.0335.2935.54-0.02-0.01
FloridaSEC0.070.0373.6871.560.030.01
KansasB120.000.0384.2179.750.000.02
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0350.0050.860.000.00
MaristMAAC0.000.0321.0522.020.00-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0327.7841.03-0.03-0.00
MontanaBSky0.060.0370.5973.150.030.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0329.4134.760.00-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.0311.1115.29-0.05-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.070.0358.8263.210.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.070.0383.3381.430.040.02
RiderMAAC0.060.0365.0065.320.020.01
SienaMAAC0.070.0328.5729.94-0.03-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0372.2268.930.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0368.4263.960.020.01
UMass LowellAE0.070.0333.3333.87-0.02-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.070.0366.6766.020.020.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0341.1839.650.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0336.8435.57-0.02-0.01
WagnerNEC0.070.0364.7164.570.020.01
YaleIvy0.070.0341.1847.56-0.01-0.00