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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Charlotte

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:234.0
Current RPI:234
Expected SOS:211
Current SOS:211
Current Record:14-19
Expected Record:14-19
Current Conf Record:10-10
Expected Conf Record:10-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-4
Current OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC RPI:275
Expected OOC SOS:221



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-19234.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Charlotte.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Elon (160.0)CAAH74-85L0%0.0
11-16East Carolina (217.0)AmerA88-74L0%0.0
11-19Furman (167.0)SCH77-68W100%0.0
11-25Syracuse (72.0)ACCN83-70L0%0.0
11-26Michigan (56.0)B10N47-102L0%0.0
11-27Washington (83.0)P12N66-71L0%0.0
12-1Davidson (64.0)A10H74-109L0%0.0
12-5Miami FL (9.0)ACCA88-60L0%0.0
12-9Campbell (308.0)BSthH70-76L0%0.0
12-19Appalachian St. (259.0)SBA66-82W100%0.0
12-22Georgetown (106.0)BEH59-62L0%0.0
12-29The Citadel (322.0)SCH111-93W100%0.0
1-2Old Dominion (140.0)CUSAA74-65L0%0.0
1-7Southern Miss (314.0)CUSAA76-82W100%0.0
1-9Louisiana Tech (122.0)CUSAA93-90L0%0.0
1-14Middle Tennessee (78.0)CUSAH72-73L0%0.0
1-16UAB (88.0)CUSAH72-74L0%0.0
1-21Marshall (128.0)CUSAH103-95W100%0.0
1-23Western Kentucky (153.0)CUSAH88-71W100%0.0
1-28FIU (270.0)CUSAA69-72W100%0.0
1-30Florida Atlantic (300.0)CUSAA82-77L0%0.0
2-3North Carolina A&T (340.0)MEACA72-92W100%0.0
2-6Old Dominion (140.0)CUSAH69-74L0%0.0
2-11Rice (279.0)CUSAH102-73W100%0.0
2-13North Texas (295.0)CUSAH103-79W100%0.0
2-18Marshall (128.0)CUSAA87-72L0%0.0
2-20Western Kentucky (153.0)CUSAA59-54L0%0.0
2-25UTSA (347.0)CUSAH114-108W100%0.0
2-27UTEP (215.0)CUSAH88-78W100%0.0
3-3Rice (279.0)CUSAA75-88W100%0.0
3-5North Texas (295.0)CUSAA80-77L0%0.0
3-9Rice (279.0)CUSAN79-69W100%0.0
3-10Middle Tennessee (78.0)CUSAN79-61L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Charlotte's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Charlotte's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Charlotte.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
CharlotteCUSA26.1926.1940.7640.76-4.84-4.84
RiceCUSA5.105.1037.0437.04-1.32-1.32
Old DominionCUSA3.843.8460.6160.610.810.81
Western KentuckyCUSA3.753.7550.0050.000.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA3.733.7368.9768.971.411.41
MarshallCUSA3.713.7151.6151.610.120.12
North TexasCUSA3.693.6932.1432.14-1.32-1.32
Louisiana TechCUSA2.222.2268.9768.970.840.84
Florida AtlanticCUSA2.222.2220.0020.00-1.33-1.33
UABCUSA2.222.2280.0080.001.331.33
UTEPCUSA2.182.1858.0658.060.350.35
Southern MissCUSA2.182.1826.9226.92-1.00-1.00
FIUCUSA2.172.1737.9337.93-0.52-0.52
UTSACUSA2.132.1313.7913.79-1.54-1.54
The CitadelSC1.591.5925.0025.00-0.80-0.80
FurmanSC1.591.5953.3353.330.110.11
ElonCAA1.591.5944.8344.83-0.16-0.16
SyracuseACC1.591.5958.0658.060.260.26
East CarolinaAmer1.561.5635.4835.48-0.45-0.45
CampbellBSth1.541.5430.7730.77-0.59-0.59
MichiganB101.541.5462.5062.500.390.39
Appalachian St.SB1.541.5430.0030.00-0.62-0.62
GeorgetownBE1.541.5443.7543.75-0.19-0.19
Miami FLACC1.541.5477.4277.420.840.84
North Carolina A&TMEAC1.541.5433.3333.33-0.51-0.51
DavidsonA101.521.5260.0060.000.300.30
WashingtonP121.521.5254.8454.840.150.15
UT ArlingtonSB0.220.2268.7568.750.080.08
South AlabamaSB0.200.2038.7138.71-0.05-0.05
Georgia St.SB0.190.1950.0050.000.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.190.1964.5264.520.060.06
UNC AshevilleBSth0.180.1864.5264.520.050.05
College of CharlestonCAA0.180.1853.3353.330.010.01
MercerSC0.180.1854.8454.840.020.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.180.1837.9337.93-0.04-0.04
VCUA100.170.1770.5970.590.070.07
TroySB0.150.1524.1424.14-0.08-0.08
SamfordSC0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
CaliforniaP120.150.1569.7069.700.060.06
Virginia TechACC0.140.1457.5857.580.020.02
PurdueB100.140.1476.4776.470.070.07
VMISC0.130.1322.2222.22-0.07-0.07
East Tennessee St.SC0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
Western CarolinaSC0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.130.1376.6776.670.070.07
Southern IllinoisMVC0.120.1268.7568.750.050.05
CreightonBE0.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.120.1234.4834.48-0.04-0.04
TexasB120.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
North CarolinaACC0.120.1282.3582.350.080.08
Florida St.ACC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
PittsburghACC0.120.1264.5264.520.030.03
ConnecticutAmer0.120.1270.5970.590.050.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.120.1284.3884.380.080.08
MarylandB100.110.1175.0075.000.060.06
Gardner WebbBSth0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.110.1128.5728.57-0.05-0.05
ChattanoogaSC0.100.1084.3884.380.070.07
WoffordSC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.100.1055.8855.880.010.01
TulaneAmer0.100.1035.2935.29-0.03-0.03
Oregon St.P120.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
HofstraCAA0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
NortheasternCAA0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.100.1058.6258.620.020.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.1022.2222.22-0.05-0.05
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
Texas St.SB0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
DuquesneA100.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.100.1026.6726.67-0.04-0.04
ButlerBE0.100.1067.7467.740.030.03
DukeACC0.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
South FloridaAmer0.100.1024.2424.24-0.05-0.05
LouisvilleACC0.090.0974.1974.190.050.05
VirginiaACC0.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
William & MaryCAA0.090.0962.0762.070.020.02
RichmondA100.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.0916.6716.67-0.06-0.06
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
RadfordBSth0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
Fresno St.MWC0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.080.0856.0056.000.010.01
LamarSlnd0.080.0826.9226.92-0.03-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.070.0776.6776.670.040.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.0714.2914.29-0.05-0.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
ClemsonACC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.070.0787.1087.100.050.05
La SalleA100.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.070.0773.3373.330.030.03
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0721.8821.88-0.04-0.04
Notre DameACC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
UtahP120.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
Washington St.P120.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.070.0744.1244.12-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.070.0783.3383.330.050.05
St. John'sBE0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
WisconsinB100.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
DePaulBE0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
VillanovaBE0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
BuffaloMAC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0721.8821.88-0.04-0.04
Rhode IslandA100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0779.4179.410.040.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0622.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0657.6957.690.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
WinthropBSth0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
IdahoBSky0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0522.8622.86-0.03-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
DaytonA100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
George MasonA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
HamptonMEAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0582.1482.140.030.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0564.2964.290.010.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
SeattleWAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
IllinoisB100.050.0544.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
Arizona St.P120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
ColoradoP120.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
OregonP120.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
StanfordP120.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
TempleAmer0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
TulsaAmer0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
UCLAP120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
USCP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0518.5218.52-0.03-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.050.0547.0647.06-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
BryantNEC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.02-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0579.3179.310.030.03
IndianaB100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
IowaB100.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
OhioMAC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Penn St.B100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.020.02
WyomingMWC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
High PointBSth0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
North FloridaASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
FordhamA100.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
HowardMEAC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
LipscombASun0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Saint LouisA100.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
CornellIvy0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
HoustonAmer0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
LehighPat0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
PennIvy0.020.0237.0437.04-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.020.0277.7877.780.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
TCUB120.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
BrownIvy0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
RutgersB100.020.0219.3519.35-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01