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Through games of Jan 16, 2017.


Charlotte

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:229.6
Current RPI:223
Expected SOS:205
Current SOS:186
Current Record:7-9
Expected Record:12-16
Current Conf Record:2-4
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-4
Current OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC RPI:195
Expected OOC SOS:202



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-10123.00.02%
17-11137.60.17%
16-12156.21.52%
15-13176.25.20%
14-14196.212.48%
13-15215.322.22%
12-16233.925.38%
11-17251.419.60%
10-18268.99.82%
9-19287.22.84%
8-20303.80.66%
7-21314.50.08%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Charlotte.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Elon (171.4)CAAA95-100W100%0.0
11-17East Carolina (235.8)AmerH76-64W100%0.0
11-22USC Upstate (231.3)ASunH103-108L0%0.0
11-26Davidson (94.2)A10A79-57L0%0.0
11-28Appalachian St. (256.4)SBH80-72W100%0.0
11-30James Madison (247.8)CAAH65-56W100%0.0
12-3Oregon St. (276.4)P12H69-66W100%0.0
12-6Wake Forest (50.5)ACCA91-74L0%0.0
12-17Florida (11.1)SECN87-46L0%0.0
12-20Maryland (37.9)B10A88-72L0%0.0
12-31North Texas (304.0)CUSAH101-76W100%0.0
1-2Rice (146.5)CUSAH70-89L0%0.0
1-5Western Kentucky (216.3)CUSAA82-80L0%0.0
1-7Marshall (93.3)CUSAA110-93L0%0.0
1-12Louisiana Tech (135.8)CUSAH73-79L0%0.0
1-14Southern Miss (336.4)CUSAH82-66W100%0.0
1-21Old Dominion (136.4)CUSAH0-041%-2.7
1-26North Texas (304.0)CUSAA0-053%0.9
1-28Rice (146.5)CUSAA0-019%-9.7
2-2Florida Atlantic (304.8)CUSAH0-071%6.3
2-4FIU (326.4)CUSAH0-073%6.9
2-9UAB (128.5)CUSAA0-019%-9.7
2-11Middle Tennessee (39.8)CUSAA0-08%-15.4
2-18Old Dominion (136.4)CUSAA0-021%-8.9
2-23Western Kentucky (216.3)CUSAH0-063%3.8
2-25Marshall (93.3)CUSAH0-038%-3.4
3-2UTSA (288.2)CUSAA0-054%1.0
3-4UTEP (326.3)CUSAA0-057%2.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Charlotte's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Charlotte's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Charlotte.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
CharlotteCUSA26.5126.1637.8841.62-6.43-4.38
Old DominionCUSA0.664.3361.1161.630.151.01
RiceCUSA3.324.2860.0064.240.661.22
Western KentuckyCUSA3.124.2444.4443.62-0.35-0.54
North TexasCUSA3.224.2428.5732.88-1.38-1.45
MarshallCUSA3.124.2452.9458.510.180.72
Louisiana TechCUSA3.232.5260.0067.230.650.87
Southern MissCUSA3.222.5221.4320.25-1.84-1.50
UABCUSA0.372.5258.8263.080.070.66
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.372.5282.3582.470.241.63
UTEPCUSA0.292.4918.7523.18-0.18-1.34
UTSACUSA0.292.4943.7538.04-0.04-0.60
FIUCUSA0.262.4912.5021.79-0.20-1.40
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.172.4521.4327.22-0.10-1.12
James MadisonCAA3.432.0029.4131.35-1.41-0.75
ElonCAA3.211.8850.0051.450.000.05
Appalachian St.SB3.311.8530.7732.85-1.27-0.63
DavidsonA103.241.8253.3354.130.220.15
Oregon St.P123.121.8218.7515.52-1.95-1.25
Wake ForestACC3.121.8256.2551.370.390.05
East CarolinaAmer3.121.7950.0042.890.00-0.25
FloridaSEC3.121.7981.2576.191.950.94
MarylandB103.121.7987.5070.872.340.75
USC UpstateASun3.121.7946.6745.42-0.21-0.16
College of CharlestonCAA0.550.2477.7870.850.300.10
RichmondA100.370.2164.7158.460.110.04
TowsonCAA0.270.2150.0052.220.000.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.190.1968.7573.520.070.09
DrexelCAA0.190.1835.2935.38-0.06-0.05
PittsburghACC0.280.1866.6753.190.090.01
William & MaryCAA0.090.1842.8647.10-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.170.1888.2484.300.130.12
Texas TechB120.200.1676.4763.780.110.04
Georgia St.SB0.000.1653.3355.860.000.02
HofstraCAA0.180.1544.4445.47-0.02-0.01
DukeACC0.300.1577.7873.720.160.07
Ohio St.B100.090.1561.1156.560.020.02
VCUA100.100.1577.7873.920.050.07
LSUSEC0.200.1556.2539.400.02-0.03
Texas St.SB0.110.1353.3345.920.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.220.1368.7570.370.080.05
JacksonvilleASun0.200.1356.2553.440.020.01
HartfordAE0.310.1331.5829.37-0.12-0.05
North FloridaASun0.190.1318.7530.20-0.12-0.05
StetsonASun0.080.1325.0027.36-0.04-0.06
South AlabamaSB0.100.1343.7541.36-0.01-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.200.1317.6529.59-0.13-0.05
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.200.1352.9455.240.010.01
RutgersB100.100.1255.5643.070.01-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.200.1235.7148.96-0.06-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.170.1237.5029.45-0.04-0.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.200.1275.0058.080.100.02
DelawareCAA0.000.1229.4127.56-0.00-0.05
NortheasternCAA0.090.1266.6763.320.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.000.1264.7167.000.000.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.270.1255.5653.980.030.01
South CarolinaSEC0.100.1281.2572.930.060.05
ToledoMAC0.090.1250.0051.640.000.00
MissouriSEC0.180.1231.2526.61-0.07-0.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.170.1233.3333.23-0.06-0.04
OhioMAC0.170.1271.4369.670.070.05
BelmontOVC0.170.1273.3373.100.080.05
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.1062.5060.080.000.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.200.1043.7543.63-0.03-0.01
Little RockSB0.200.0956.2551.280.030.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.180.0962.5062.550.050.02
GeorgetownBE0.280.0952.6348.240.01-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.110.0966.6750.950.040.00
Western CarolinaSC0.200.0918.7520.57-0.12-0.05
Northwestern St.Slnd0.100.0925.0033.65-0.05-0.03
AuburnSEC0.100.0964.7154.930.030.01
Miami FLACC0.090.0975.0063.150.050.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.190.0931.2545.28-0.07-0.01
George WashingtonA100.100.0950.0047.550.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.180.0929.4138.91-0.08-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.190.0917.6535.25-0.12-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.180.0950.0066.220.000.03
Florida St.ACC0.290.0988.8978.090.220.05
CaliforniaP120.100.0972.2266.070.040.03
ClemsonACC0.190.0964.7160.750.060.02
TulaneAmer0.100.0923.5320.62-0.06-0.05
HowardMEAC0.090.0912.5028.47-0.07-0.04
LouisvilleACC0.000.0983.3377.690.000.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.180.0918.7528.06-0.11-0.04
MercerSC0.270.0935.2944.06-0.08-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.170.0988.2486.430.130.06
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.170.0960.0072.720.030.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0988.2487.480.060.07
TulsaAmer0.090.0956.2551.250.010.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0947.0643.82-0.00-0.01
WashingtonP120.170.0947.0642.27-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.160.090.0014.42-0.16-0.06
Arkansas St.SB0.110.0764.7165.930.030.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0729.4134.21-0.00-0.02
LipscombASun0.000.0741.1847.61-0.00-0.00
NJITASun0.100.0741.1845.41-0.02-0.01
HawaiiBW0.100.0640.0044.09-0.02-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.190.0664.7170.610.060.03
NiagaraMAAC0.100.0626.3227.77-0.05-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.100.0660.0061.150.020.01
San DiegoWCC0.100.0647.0640.37-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.000.0647.0648.10-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.190.0662.5057.020.050.01
HamptonMEAC0.190.0626.6740.15-0.09-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.180.0613.3314.86-0.13-0.04
TennesseeSEC0.200.0650.0050.990.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.100.066.2511.84-0.09-0.05
Cal PolyBW0.090.0620.0029.47-0.06-0.03
FordhamA100.100.0635.2931.83-0.03-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.100.0630.7743.59-0.04-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.090.0650.0049.550.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.100.0623.0831.01-0.05-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.100.0612.5033.74-0.07-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.100.0650.0051.420.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0688.2484.380.000.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.0657.1453.400.010.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0640.0044.63-0.00-0.01
Arizona St.P120.100.0650.0044.340.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.090.0656.2552.000.010.00
George MasonA100.090.0664.7156.530.030.01
KansasB120.100.0694.4481.600.090.04
LamarSlnd0.090.0650.0049.650.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.190.0650.0043.370.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.190.0684.2180.580.130.04
RadfordBSth0.180.0637.5043.12-0.05-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.180.0650.0051.540.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.090.0633.3337.37-0.03-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.180.0625.0029.61-0.09-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.090.0664.7161.890.030.01
AkronMAC0.090.0681.2573.540.050.03
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0650.0034.750.00-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.090.0675.0074.760.040.03
ColoradoP120.000.0652.9454.280.000.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.0621.4323.21-0.00-0.03
IllinoisB100.180.0664.7154.360.050.01
IowaB100.000.0657.8950.960.000.00
MinnesotaB100.000.0678.9570.150.000.02
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0631.2539.84-0.03-0.01
NorthwesternB100.090.0678.9569.120.050.02
OregonP120.090.0688.2482.770.070.04
St. John'sBE0.000.0645.0038.60-0.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.0652.9447.220.00-0.00
UCLAP120.090.0694.7489.330.080.05
USCP120.090.0684.2172.840.060.03
UtahP120.000.0666.6764.720.000.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0672.2264.140.000.02
MississippiSEC0.090.0658.8252.810.020.00
VirginiaACC0.170.0681.2576.190.110.03
ArkansasSEC0.090.0676.4768.380.050.02
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0623.5328.53-0.04-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0637.5043.15-0.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.080.0617.6524.27-0.05-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0662.5057.280.020.01
HoustonAmer0.080.0672.2271.210.040.02
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0635.2937.74-0.02-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.0688.2487.320.000.04
SMUAmer0.080.0678.9576.690.050.03
TempleAmer0.080.0652.6353.220.000.00
UCFAmer0.080.0676.4766.360.040.02
UNLVMWC0.080.0650.0045.100.00-0.01
CampbellBSth0.100.0346.6745.24-0.01-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.100.0314.2928.29-0.07-0.01
ColgatePat0.100.0316.6723.35-0.07-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0325.0028.48-0.00-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0323.5324.37-0.00-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0355.5655.680.000.00
The CitadelSC0.100.0335.2930.57-0.03-0.01
UMKCWAC0.100.0338.8940.01-0.02-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.100.0356.2562.950.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.100.0321.4336.57-0.06-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.0337.5038.15-0.00-0.01
DaytonA100.000.0375.0076.040.000.02
DuquesneA100.000.0350.0042.110.00-0.00
La SalleA100.000.0366.6762.150.000.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0361.1159.210.000.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0355.5654.690.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0317.6521.39-0.00-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0350.0047.550.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.100.0329.4125.22-0.04-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0346.1553.13-0.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.000.0350.0058.430.000.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0333.3330.18-0.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.090.0323.5329.81-0.05-0.01
ArizonaP120.000.0388.8983.100.000.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0317.6524.63-0.00-0.02
BucknellPat0.090.0368.4271.170.030.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0347.0644.16-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.000.0350.0054.850.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0364.7147.180.00-0.00
IndianaB100.090.0366.6763.930.030.01
Kansas St.B120.090.0376.4759.430.050.01
Kent St.MAC0.090.0350.0051.780.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.090.0322.2236.06-0.05-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.090.0326.6725.63-0.04-0.01
MichiganB100.090.0366.6758.160.030.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0363.1657.750.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.0347.0655.40-0.000.00
NevadaMWC0.090.0383.3378.320.060.02
Notre DameACC0.000.0388.8977.800.000.02
Oklahoma St.B120.090.0356.2553.900.010.00
Penn St.B100.000.0361.1150.470.000.00
PortlandWCC0.090.0350.0042.270.00-0.00
PurdueB100.000.0377.7876.220.000.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.0325.0031.95-0.05-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.0337.5051.06-0.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.090.0352.9453.520.010.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0357.8952.840.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0362.5065.700.000.01
TexasB120.000.0341.1835.95-0.00-0.01
UMBCAE0.090.0362.5058.760.020.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.090.0368.7563.230.030.01
VillanovaBE0.090.0394.7489.170.080.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0376.4762.000.000.01
Washington St.P120.090.0350.0035.490.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.0382.3581.030.000.02
XavierBE0.090.0372.2267.490.040.01
Air ForceMWC0.080.0343.7537.53-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0312.5020.01-0.06-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.090.03100.0096.910.090.03
OklahomaB120.000.0343.7536.61-0.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.090.0366.6758.210.030.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0356.2553.010.000.00