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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Charlotte

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:211.0
Current RPI:211
Expected SOS:169
Current SOS:169
Current Record:14-18
Expected Record:14-18
Current Conf Record:7-12
Expected Conf Record:7-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-3
Current OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:140
Expected OOC SOS:167



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-18211.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Charlotte.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Elon (259.0)CAAA60-73W100%0.0
11-20Penn St. (108.0)B10N106-97W100%0.0
11-21South Carolina (91.0)SECN63-65W100%0.0
11-23Miami FL (65.0)ACCN58-77L0%0.0
11-25Miami FL (65.0)ACCH74-77L0%0.0
11-30UNC Asheville (249.0)BSthA63-66W100%0.0
12-3Davidson (35.0)A10A92-86L0%0.0
12-7George Washington (84.0)A10N78-70L0%0.0
12-16College of Charleston (298.0)CAAH90-85W100%0.0
12-18Appalachian St. (250.0)SBH75-65W100%0.0
12-20Georgetown (25.0)BEA81-78L0%0.0
12-30Georgia Tech (153.0)ACCA67-66L0%0.0
1-4Old Dominion (46.0)CUSAH54-61L0%0.0
1-8Western Kentucky (117.0)CUSAA74-66L0%0.0
1-10Marshall (296.0)CUSAA72-77W100%0.0
1-15North Texas (224.0)CUSAH73-57W100%0.0
1-17Rice (247.0)CUSAH68-73L0%0.0
1-22UAB (130.0)CUSAA81-76L0%0.0
1-24Middle Tennessee (138.0)CUSAA72-69L0%0.0
1-29Florida Atlantic (303.0)CUSAH86-61W100%0.0
1-31FIU (217.0)CUSAH70-78L0%0.0
2-4North Carolina A&T (340.0)MEACH77-61W100%0.0
2-7Old Dominion (46.0)CUSAA61-57L0%0.0
2-12UTEP (78.0)CUSAA73-68L0%0.0
2-14UTSA (237.0)CUSAA81-89W100%0.0
2-19Louisiana Tech (58.0)CUSAH82-83L0%0.0
2-21Southern Miss (283.0)CUSAH71-43W100%0.0
2-26North Texas (224.0)CUSAA81-65L0%0.0
2-28Rice (247.0)CUSAA76-77W100%0.0
3-5Western Kentucky (117.0)CUSAH84-88L0%0.0
3-7Marshall (296.0)CUSAH86-73W100%0.0
3-11Middle Tennessee (138.0)CUSAN63-60L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Charlotte's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Charlotte's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Charlotte.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
CharlotteCUSA26.1726.1744.0044.00-3.14-3.14
Old DominionCUSA3.853.8575.8675.861.991.99
MarshallCUSA3.823.8232.1432.14-1.36-1.36
Middle TennesseeCUSA3.803.8050.0050.000.000.00
RiceCUSA3.803.8033.3333.33-1.27-1.27
Western KentuckyCUSA3.803.8057.1457.140.540.54
North TexasCUSA3.773.7740.7440.74-0.70-0.70
Miami FLACC3.173.1761.2961.290.720.72
UABCUSA2.332.3353.1253.120.150.15
UTEPCUSA2.292.2967.7467.740.810.81
FIUCUSA2.282.2843.3343.33-0.30-0.30
Louisiana TechCUSA2.262.2674.1974.191.091.09
Florida AtlanticCUSA2.252.2526.9226.92-1.04-1.04
UTSACUSA2.242.2444.4444.44-0.25-0.25
Southern MissCUSA2.172.1726.9226.92-1.00-1.00
College of CharlestonCAA1.691.6928.1228.12-0.74-0.74
South CarolinaSEC1.671.6751.6151.610.050.05
ElonCAA1.641.6443.3343.33-0.22-0.22
Penn St.B101.641.6454.5554.550.150.15
George WashingtonA101.641.6462.5062.500.410.41
North Carolina A&TMEAC1.641.6424.1424.14-0.85-0.85
Georgia TechACC1.641.6436.6736.67-0.44-0.44
DavidsonA101.631.6375.8675.860.840.84
UNC AshevilleBSth1.611.6144.4444.44-0.18-0.18
Appalachian St.SB1.591.5942.8642.86-0.23-0.23
GeorgetownBE1.561.5666.6766.670.520.52
LouisvilleACC0.250.2575.0075.000.120.12
William & MaryCAA0.230.2360.0060.000.050.05
DrexelCAA0.220.2237.9337.93-0.05-0.05
Virginia TechACC0.220.2233.3333.33-0.07-0.07
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.200.2056.6756.670.030.03
AkronMAC0.190.1958.8258.820.030.03
South AlabamaSB0.180.1832.2632.26-0.06-0.06
VCUA100.180.1874.2974.290.090.09
CreightonBE0.180.1842.4242.42-0.03-0.03
George MasonA100.170.1726.6726.67-0.08-0.08
Savannah St.MEAC0.150.1524.1424.14-0.08-0.08
LSUSEC0.150.1568.7568.750.060.06
RichmondA100.150.1559.3859.380.030.03
TowsonCAA0.150.1535.4835.48-0.04-0.04
North CarolinaACC0.150.1568.5768.570.050.05
DuquesneA100.150.1536.6736.67-0.04-0.04
Boston CollegeACC0.150.1540.6240.62-0.03-0.03
Notre DameACC0.150.1585.2985.290.100.10
Georgia St.SB0.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
Gardner WebbBSth0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.130.1370.0070.000.050.05
GeorgiaSEC0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
Wake ForestACC0.130.1340.6240.62-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
Oklahoma St.B120.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
VirginiaACC0.120.1290.6290.620.100.10
ClemsonACC0.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
FloridaSEC0.120.1248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.120.1251.5251.520.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.110.1143.7543.75-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.110.1162.0762.070.030.03
Washington St.P120.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.110.1135.7135.71-0.03-0.03
CampbellBSth0.110.1124.1424.14-0.05-0.05
AlabamaSEC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
USC UpstateASun0.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
Morehead St.OVC0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.100.1061.7661.760.020.02
BelmontOVC0.100.1067.7467.740.030.03
MinnesotaB100.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.100.1083.3383.330.070.07
DelawareCAA0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.100.1087.8887.880.070.07
James MadisonCAA0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.100.1067.6567.650.030.03
ProvidenceBE0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
SyracuseACC0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
WisconsinB100.090.0991.1891.180.080.08
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
LibertyBSth0.080.0814.2914.29-0.06-0.06
TroySB0.080.0829.6329.63-0.03-0.03
Texas St.SB0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.080.0821.4321.43-0.05-0.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0818.7518.75-0.05-0.05
LongwoodBSth0.080.0828.1228.12-0.03-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0867.8667.860.030.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.0826.9226.92-0.04-0.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.086.906.90-0.07-0.07
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
La SalleA100.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
West VirginiaB120.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
Saint LouisA100.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
ButlerBE0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
MarquetteBE0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
DePaulBE0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Seton HallBE0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
MissouriSEC0.070.0725.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
HowardMEAC0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
PittsburghACC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Ohio St.B100.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
AuburnSEC0.070.0741.1841.18-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
RutgersB100.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
High PointBSth0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
WinthropBSth0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
LamarSlnd0.050.0542.3142.31-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Oregon St.P120.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0586.6786.670.040.04
TexasB120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Texas TechB120.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
NevadaMWC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0575.8675.860.030.03
Stony BrookAE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
FurmanSC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0594.1294.120.040.04
MassachusettsA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
North FloridaASun0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
KentuckySEC0.050.05100.00100.000.050.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
IndianaB100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
CornellIvy0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
IowaB100.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
MarylandB100.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
NebraskaB100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
HarvardIvy0.030.0374.0774.070.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0359.2659.260.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
HartfordAE0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
IPFWSum0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.020.0216.6716.67-0.02-0.02
AmericanPat0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
ArizonaP120.020.0291.1891.180.020.02
BaylorB120.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0281.2581.250.020.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.020.0258.3358.330.000.00
Iowa St.B120.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.020.0255.5655.560.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
SamfordSC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
WashingtonP120.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
ColoradoP120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.020.0258.8258.820.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.020.000.00-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.020.0229.6329.63-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
UMBCAE0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
VMISC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.020.0287.1087.100.020.02
BucknellPat0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
MichiganB100.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
USCP120.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01