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Through games of Nov 22, 2014.


Charlotte

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:61.7
Current RPI:14
Expected SOS:126
Current SOS:49
Current Record:3-0
Expected Record:21-9
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-1
Current OOC Record:3-0
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:47
Expected OOC SOS:111



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
29-110.00.01%
28-28.00.02%
27-313.50.24%
26-418.21.24%
25-523.83.56%
24-631.07.35%
23-738.612.44%
22-847.916.86%
21-958.318.31%
20-1070.815.91%
19-1184.711.82%
18-1299.76.89%
17-13115.63.49%
16-14131.21.21%
15-15147.60.45%
14-16175.40.14%
13-17180.80.05%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Charlotte.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Elon (231.7)CAAA60-73W100%0.0
11-20Penn St. (122.0)B10N106-97W100%0.0
11-21South Carolina (83.4)SECN63-65W100%0.0
11-25Miami FL (18.9)ACCH0-038%-3.6
11-30UNC Asheville (217.5)BSthA0-075%8.1
12-3Davidson (105.2)A10A0-045%-1.4
12-7George Washington (34.3)A10N0-031%-6.1
12-16College of Charleston (127.4)CAAH0-073%7.3
12-18Appalachian St. (313.9)SBH0-097%23.2
12-20Georgetown (54.1)BEA0-033%-5.3
12-30Georgia Tech (84.5)ACCA0-039%-3.2
1-4Old Dominion (56.0)CUSAH0-057%2.1
1-8Western Kentucky (179.3)CUSAA0-065%4.5
1-10Marshall (144.4)CUSAA0-058%2.4
1-15North Texas (185.2)CUSAH0-085%12.5
1-17Rice (265.3)CUSAH0-094%18.4
1-22UAB (191.5)CUSAA0-064%4.2
1-24Middle Tennessee (181.9)CUSAA0-065%4.5
1-29Florida Atlantic (254.1)CUSAH0-090%15.6
1-31FIU (207.5)CUSAH0-089%14.6
2-4North Carolina A&T (324.5)MEACH0-098%24.0
2-7Old Dominion (56.0)CUSAA0-034%-5.1
2-12UTEP (85.7)CUSAA0-044%-1.8
2-14UTSA (256.4)CUSAA0-076%8.3
2-19Louisiana Tech (69.9)CUSAH0-062%3.8
2-21Southern Miss (141.9)CUSAH0-078%9.4
2-26North Texas (185.2)CUSAA0-067%5.3
2-28Rice (265.3)CUSAA0-083%11.2
3-5Western Kentucky (179.3)CUSAH0-084%11.7
3-7Marshall (144.4)CUSAH0-079%9.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Charlotte's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Charlotte's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Charlotte.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
CharlotteCUSA31.9426.19100.0072.0431.9411.54
Old DominionCUSA0.004.08100.0082.030.002.62
MarshallCUSA0.004.0566.6752.650.000.21
North TexasCUSA0.004.00100.0047.480.00-0.20
Western KentuckyCUSA0.003.9933.3342.99-0.00-0.56
RiceCUSA0.003.9933.3328.38-0.00-1.72
Florida AtlanticCUSA2.782.410.0035.95-2.78-0.68
UTEPCUSA0.002.39100.0069.690.000.94
UTSACUSA0.002.3950.0037.930.00-0.58
FIUCUSA0.002.38100.0044.300.00-0.27
UABCUSA0.002.350.0043.44-0.00-0.31
Louisiana TechCUSA0.002.3375.0072.260.001.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.002.3250.0045.960.00-0.19
Southern MissCUSA0.002.3250.0054.650.000.22
South CarolinaSEC16.671.7966.6756.305.560.22
College of CharlestonCAA0.001.7825.0057.39-0.000.26
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.001.760.0024.98-0.00-0.88
George WashingtonA100.001.7566.6776.770.000.94
ElonCAA16.671.7550.0042.740.00-0.25
Penn St.B1016.671.75100.0048.8016.67-0.04
DavidsonA100.001.7550.0052.980.000.10
UNC AshevilleBSth0.001.7333.3346.46-0.00-0.12
Miami FLACC0.001.72100.0073.930.000.83
Georgia TechACC0.001.72100.0052.800.000.10
Appalachian St.SB0.001.7033.3322.42-0.00-0.94
GeorgetownBE0.001.67100.0061.870.000.40
William & MaryCAA0.000.2466.6744.970.00-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.23100.0078.630.000.13
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.2066.6748.790.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.000.200.0032.23-0.00-0.07
LSUSEC0.000.1875.0060.550.000.04
George MasonA100.000.1825.0019.94-0.00-0.11
RichmondA100.000.1866.6767.450.000.06
VCUA100.000.18100.0073.570.000.08
Georgia St.SB0.000.150.0057.63-0.000.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.15100.0073.290.000.07
TowsonCAA0.000.1575.0053.860.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.140.0039.36-0.00-0.03
DuquesneA100.000.14100.0052.610.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.1450.0041.720.00-0.02
HofstraCAA0.000.1466.6762.810.000.04
Virginia TechACC0.000.1466.6733.180.00-0.05
AkronMAC0.000.1466.6763.730.000.04
RadfordBSth0.000.1233.3348.73-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.120.0039.15-0.00-0.03
CampbellBSth0.000.120.0030.19-0.00-0.05
CreightonBE0.000.12100.0055.850.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1266.6758.190.000.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.1250.0041.630.00-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.12100.0058.780.000.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.12100.0073.660.000.06
Oklahoma St.B120.000.12100.0052.590.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1250.0037.110.00-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.000.12100.0051.050.000.00
ClemsonACC0.000.1250.0051.120.000.00
VirginiaACC0.000.12100.0075.720.000.06
DelawareCAA0.000.120.0029.55-0.00-0.05
James MadisonCAA0.000.1266.6746.540.00-0.01
MinnesotaB100.000.1266.6761.350.000.03
NortheasternCAA0.000.12100.0071.440.000.05
Morehead St.OVC0.000.1225.0059.16-0.000.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.110.0042.47-0.00-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.000.0933.3322.74-0.00-0.05
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0966.6768.980.000.03
MarquetteBE0.000.0933.3340.91-0.00-0.02
DePaulBE0.000.09100.0037.850.00-0.02
Seton HallBE0.000.09100.0056.980.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.090.0031.61-0.00-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.000.09100.0069.670.000.04
Rhode IslandA100.000.09100.0056.240.000.01
StetsonASun0.000.090.0032.07-0.00-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0933.3344.56-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0920.0027.80-0.00-0.04
MississippiSEC0.000.0966.6755.980.000.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0966.6767.200.000.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0933.3336.99-0.00-0.02
Texas St.SB0.000.0966.6748.850.00-0.00
TroySB0.000.090.0045.18-0.00-0.01
DaytonA100.000.0966.6769.640.000.03
Saint LouisA100.000.09100.0065.140.000.03
BelmontOVC0.000.0966.6773.760.000.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.090.0018.27-0.00-0.06
Murray St.OVC0.000.0950.0071.840.000.04
DukeACC0.000.09100.0086.130.000.06
Morgan St.MEAC2.080.090.0040.40-2.08-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.090.0034.81-0.00-0.03
NorthwesternB102.780.09100.0042.122.78-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.09100.0074.620.000.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0950.0062.580.000.02
FordhamA102.080.090.0035.11-2.08-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.090.0046.56-0.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0950.0041.480.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0933.3346.79-0.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.09100.0059.190.000.02
Ohio St.B100.000.09100.0071.340.000.04
SyracuseACC0.000.0975.0068.160.000.03
WisconsinB100.000.09100.0084.890.000.06
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.090.0047.90-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.000.09100.0067.570.000.03
RutgersB100.000.0850.0037.560.00-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.060.0063.56-0.000.02
High PointBSth0.000.0675.0055.790.000.01
HoustonAmer0.000.06100.0065.060.000.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.060.0025.73-0.00-0.03
LamarSlnd0.000.060.0034.03-0.00-0.02
LibertyBSth0.000.0633.3335.41-0.00-0.02
MercerSC0.000.0650.0052.260.000.00
Oregon St.P120.000.06100.0049.460.00-0.00
TexasB120.000.06100.0081.740.000.04
WinthropBSth0.000.0650.0060.360.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.060.0033.55-0.00-0.02
ButlerBE0.000.06100.0061.850.000.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0625.0066.02-0.000.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.060.0056.24-0.000.01
St. John'sBE0.000.06100.0052.540.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.060.0050.76-0.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.06100.0030.790.00-0.02
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0065.270.000.02
Washington St.P120.000.0633.3327.58-0.00-0.03
XavierBE0.000.06100.0077.070.000.03
UCFAmer0.000.06100.0046.730.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.060.0024.77-0.00-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.000.060.0025.03-0.00-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0633.3354.70-0.000.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.060.0031.23-0.00-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.060.0037.13-0.00-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.06100.0061.500.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0025.43-0.00-0.03
IonaMAAC0.000.0666.6766.670.000.02
KentuckySEC0.000.06100.0085.630.000.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0018.48-0.00-0.04
MissouriSEC0.000.0666.6749.590.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0633.3336.55-0.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.060.0072.02-0.000.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.060.0067.09-0.000.02
Stony BrookAE0.000.0633.3364.76-0.000.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.0650.0042.680.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.000.0666.6746.900.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.06100.0047.840.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.06100.0064.090.000.02
IndianaB100.000.06100.0062.040.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0666.6740.400.00-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.060.0046.61-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0625.0051.56-0.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0620.0026.89-0.00-0.03
La SalleA100.000.06100.0053.840.000.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0675.0060.410.000.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0666.6752.550.000.00
CornellIvy4.170.0640.0040.58-0.83-0.01
HowardMEAC0.000.060.0035.51-0.00-0.02
PittsburghACC0.000.0666.6750.790.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0032.69-0.00-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0666.6765.320.000.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0650.0053.000.000.00
OhioMAC0.000.0650.0056.270.000.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0675.0057.060.000.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0633.3346.93-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.000.0633.3346.76-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.000.0633.3325.18-0.00-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0038.72-0.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.06100.0067.100.000.02
MarylandB100.000.06100.0064.500.000.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0350.0054.970.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0350.0052.290.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.000.030.0049.23-0.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0031.92-0.00-0.01
ArizonaP120.000.03100.0069.320.000.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.03100.0062.400.000.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0350.0067.960.000.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.03100.0052.260.000.00
KansasB120.000.0350.0061.790.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.030.0038.59-0.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0350.0044.810.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0325.0040.91-0.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0325.0041.91-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.030.0034.07-0.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0019.17-0.00-0.02
TCUB120.000.03100.0054.550.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0041.59-0.00-0.01
BaylorB122.080.03100.0069.302.080.01
BradleyMVC0.000.030.0027.82-0.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.030.0031.63-0.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0033.68-0.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0350.0052.920.000.00
Iowa St.B120.000.03100.0061.830.000.01
IPFWSum0.000.0350.0063.720.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.03100.0070.980.000.01
MaristMAAC0.000.030.0034.55-0.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0366.6734.100.00-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.03100.0045.350.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.000.030.0048.00-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0333.3324.07-0.00-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0333.3345.85-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun2.080.030.0047.13-2.08-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0333.3340.99-0.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.03100.0046.040.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.030.0032.70-0.00-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0333.3335.92-0.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.03100.0063.820.000.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.03100.0072.860.000.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.0025.50-0.00-0.01
HartfordAE0.000.0375.0042.500.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.030.0043.84-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0028.50-0.00-0.01
UMBCAE0.000.030.0036.19-0.00-0.01
VMISC0.000.0333.3339.27-0.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0366.6758.650.000.00
AmericanPat0.000.0350.0054.620.000.00
BucknellPat0.000.0325.0035.71-0.00-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.03100.0076.190.000.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0035.64-0.00-0.01
Green BayHorz0.000.030.0067.49-0.000.01
IowaB100.000.0350.0065.570.000.01
MichiganB100.000.03100.0064.370.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0366.6771.600.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0366.6752.320.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.030.0053.00-0.000.00
PurdueB100.000.03100.0060.550.000.01
SamfordSC0.000.0325.0031.88-0.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.000.0350.0053.100.000.00
The CitadelSC0.000.030.0028.08-0.00-0.01