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Through games of Nov 16, 2017.


Charlotte

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:218.4
Current RPI:136
Expected SOS:240
Current SOS:61
Current Record:0-1
Expected Record:14-14
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-5
Current OOC Record:0-1
Expected OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC RPI:250
Expected OOC SOS:283



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-562.00.01%
22-674.00.01%
21-784.70.20%
20-898.10.44%
19-9116.61.39%
18-10135.52.79%
17-11153.25.72%
16-12173.09.77%
15-13192.613.53%
14-14210.916.25%
13-15229.916.00%
12-16246.613.71%
11-17263.39.63%
10-18278.35.65%
9-19294.62.86%
8-20306.91.36%
7-21317.20.51%
6-22326.30.15%
5-23323.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Charlotte.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Oklahoma St. (61.5)B12A83-65L0%0.0
11-18College of Charleston (100.9)CAAH0-037%-3.9
11-20Presbyterian (339.1)BSthH0-093%17.6
11-24High Point (226.8)BSthH0-066%4.9
11-28Davidson (48.5)A10H0-021%-9.8
12-2James Madison (259.7)CAAA0-050%0.1
12-5Wake Forest (146.8)ACCH0-035%-4.8
12-10Chattanooga (252.0)SCA0-052%0.7
12-18East Carolina (246.9)AmerA0-039%-3.2
12-21South Florida (287.0)AmerA0-059%2.6
12-30Old Dominion (125.3)CUSAA0-024%-8.4
1-4North Texas (282.1)CUSAA0-057%2.0
1-6Rice (282.5)CUSAA0-059%2.6
1-11Marshall (171.0)CUSAH0-056%1.9
1-13Western Kentucky (172.4)CUSAH0-057%2.0
1-18Florida Atlantic (272.3)CUSAA0-056%1.7
1-20FIU (319.1)CUSAA0-066%5.0
1-27Old Dominion (125.3)CUSAH0-042%-2.4
2-1UAB (78.5)CUSAH0-027%-7.3
2-3Middle Tennessee (64.6)CUSAH0-032%-5.8
2-8Louisiana Tech (118.3)CUSAA0-026%-7.6
2-10Southern Miss (240.6)CUSAA0-052%0.5
2-15UTEP (169.1)CUSAH0-051%0.3
2-17UTSA (222.3)CUSAH0-066%5.1
2-22Western Kentucky (172.4)CUSAA0-037%-4.0
2-24Marshall (171.0)CUSAA0-037%-4.0
3-1FIU (319.1)CUSAH0-082%11.0
3-3Florida Atlantic (272.3)CUSAH0-074%7.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Charlotte's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Charlotte's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Charlotte.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
CharlotteCUSA33.3326.230.0048.21-33.33-0.94
Old DominionCUSA0.004.3866.6767.620.001.55
FIUCUSA0.004.350.0026.640.00-2.03
MarshallCUSA0.004.3266.6749.180.00-0.07
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.004.300.0032.670.00-1.49
Western KentuckyCUSA0.004.280.0044.560.00-0.47
UABCUSA0.002.59100.0079.420.001.53
North TexasCUSA0.002.5850.0036.210.00-0.71
RiceCUSA0.002.570.0029.850.00-1.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.002.5650.0065.520.000.80
Louisiana TechCUSA0.002.51100.0061.000.000.55
Southern MissCUSA0.002.510.0034.250.00-0.79
UTEPCUSA0.002.500.0058.160.000.41
UTSACUSA0.002.50100.0044.360.00-0.28
South FloridaAmer0.001.9866.6728.440.00-0.85
James MadisonCAA0.001.980.0033.430.00-0.66
High PointBSth0.001.8850.0054.170.000.16
College of CharlestonCAA0.001.8850.0066.650.000.63
ChattanoogaSC0.001.880.0039.480.00-0.40
PresbyterianBSth0.001.850.0019.490.00-1.13
East CarolinaAmer0.001.8450.0041.940.00-0.30
DavidsonA100.001.79100.0069.190.000.69
Oklahoma St.B1250.001.79100.0059.2550.000.33
Wake ForestACC0.001.790.0036.640.00-0.48
William & MaryCAA0.000.2950.0034.900.00-0.09
TowsonCAA0.000.270.0059.580.000.05
RichmondA100.000.230.0029.690.00-0.09
ElonCAA0.000.220.0052.350.000.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.20100.0076.450.000.11
RadfordBSth0.000.2050.0046.810.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.190.0051.230.000.00
TulsaAmer0.000.1866.6749.940.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.170.0027.000.00-0.08
LibertyBSth0.000.17100.0066.540.000.06
CampbellBSth0.000.170.0049.740.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.000.16100.0061.970.000.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.1650.0052.010.000.01
MemphisAmer0.000.1550.0051.300.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.130.0042.700.00-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.000.130.0021.230.00-0.08
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.130.0062.690.000.03
WinthropBSth0.000.130.0055.630.000.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.130.0021.770.00-0.07
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.130.0034.970.00-0.04
The CitadelSC0.000.130.0025.120.00-0.06
DelawareCAA0.000.1350.0048.660.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.000.130.0035.080.00-0.04
HofstraCAA0.000.13100.0060.850.000.03
NortheasternCAA0.000.13100.0052.450.000.01
VMISC0.000.130.0024.440.00-0.07
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.130.0056.940.000.02
OklahomaB120.000.12100.0060.100.000.03
TempleAmer0.000.12100.0050.360.000.00
OhioMAC0.000.1250.0053.010.000.01
Wichita St.Amer0.000.12100.0081.760.000.08
HoustonAmer0.000.12100.0061.670.000.03
SMUAmer0.000.12100.0076.170.000.06
TulaneAmer0.000.12100.0045.400.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.100.0063.160.000.03
Arkansas St.SB0.000.1033.3342.730.00-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.100.0046.490.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.10100.0048.900.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.1050.0072.880.000.05
WoffordSC0.000.100.0040.100.00-0.02
George MasonA100.000.1066.6749.670.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.000.1066.6774.250.000.05
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.1050.0044.020.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.10100.0054.180.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.100.0042.720.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.10100.0068.600.000.04
Florida St.ACC0.000.09100.0065.720.000.03
Georgia TechACC0.000.090.0057.200.000.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0950.0051.130.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.090.0034.150.00-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.000.090.0030.390.00-0.04
TexasB120.000.09100.0064.470.000.03
StetsonASun0.000.0950.0036.970.00-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0966.6739.460.00-0.02
AkronMAC0.000.09100.0056.370.000.01
IllinoisB100.000.09100.0058.990.000.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0933.3354.240.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.09100.0056.570.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.09100.0062.030.000.02
MinnesotaB100.000.07100.0071.810.000.03
New MexicoMWC0.000.07100.0056.210.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0733.3334.290.00-0.02
Texas St.SB0.000.070.0043.490.00-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.070.0023.010.00-0.04
AuburnSEC0.000.07100.0056.760.000.01
FordhamA100.000.0750.0038.830.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0750.0045.970.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.070.0033.450.00-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.070.0055.780.000.01
TroySB0.000.0733.3346.960.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.000.0766.6739.970.00-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.060.0030.950.00-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.06100.0077.360.000.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.06100.0070.450.000.03
VirginiaACC0.000.06100.0072.580.000.03
Virginia TechACC0.000.0666.6758.190.000.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.060.0035.310.00-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0650.0041.510.00-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0650.0043.370.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.06100.0086.450.000.05
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0650.0057.590.000.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.06100.0059.300.000.01
FurmanSC0.000.06100.0062.580.000.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.06100.0065.490.000.02
HartfordAE0.000.0650.0025.740.00-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.060.0029.440.00-0.03
MercerSC0.000.0650.0069.800.000.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.06100.0056.990.000.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.06100.0068.440.000.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.060.0042.230.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.000.060.0038.700.00-0.01
SamfordSC0.000.0633.3348.810.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0666.6754.660.000.01
SyracuseACC0.000.06100.0063.660.000.02
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0081.220.000.04
WisconsinB100.000.0666.6767.150.000.02
Wright St.Horz0.000.060.0047.120.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.000.060.0046.130.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0019.390.00-0.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.06100.0063.850.000.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.060.0035.580.00-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.06100.0082.680.000.04
BaylorB120.000.06100.0066.030.000.02
Iowa St.B120.000.0633.3337.590.00-0.01
KansasB120.000.06100.0081.760.000.04
Kansas St.B120.000.06100.0060.770.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0633.3336.770.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.060.0050.190.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0041.270.00-0.01
TCUB120.000.06100.0060.820.000.01
ToledoMAC0.000.06100.0059.350.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0650.0065.430.000.02
XavierBE0.000.06100.0079.580.000.04
Boise St.MWC0.000.03100.0061.370.000.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.030.0029.590.00-0.01
LamarSlnd0.000.03100.0065.420.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.030.0047.170.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0333.3358.940.000.01
Washington St.P120.000.03100.0038.580.00-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.03100.0061.060.000.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.030.0031.320.00-0.01
DaytonA100.000.0350.0058.290.000.01
DuquesneA100.000.03100.0046.790.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.030.0042.910.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.030.0033.310.00-0.01
La SalleA100.000.03100.0052.830.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.030.0056.200.000.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0350.0042.270.00-0.01
MichiganB100.000.03100.0061.540.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.03100.0052.640.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.03100.0050.270.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.0350.0052.400.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.030.0058.130.000.01
NevadaMWC0.000.03100.0078.420.000.02
New OrleansSlnd0.000.030.0042.910.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.030.0034.760.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.030.0054.330.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0350.0056.640.000.00
Saint LouisA100.000.03100.0058.580.000.01
SienaMAAC0.000.030.0036.810.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.0350.0065.910.000.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.030.0036.780.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0048.610.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0350.0052.010.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.030.0030.550.00-0.01
ArmyPat0.000.030.0046.250.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.03100.0047.010.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.000.03100.0050.990.000.00
DrakeMVC0.000.030.0024.480.00-0.02
FloridaSEC0.000.03100.0080.210.000.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.03100.0065.310.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0350.0068.350.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0071.350.000.01
Miami FLACC0.000.03100.0074.380.000.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.03100.0063.430.000.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.030.0027.970.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0073.570.000.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.030.0036.000.00-0.01
UNLVMWC0.000.03100.0063.500.000.01
WyomingMWC0.000.03100.0057.300.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.030.0032.740.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.030.0028.560.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0025.370.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.030.0020.890.00-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.03100.0059.020.000.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0025.790.00-0.01
RutgersB100.000.03100.0045.620.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.03100.0052.910.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.03100.0070.700.000.01
Oral RobertsSum8.330.030.0023.60-8.33-0.02
PepperdineWCC8.330.030.0035.93-8.33-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.03100.0070.320.000.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0053.980.000.00
IndianaB100.000.0333.3341.370.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0350.0040.840.00-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.030.0026.780.00-0.01