live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Jan 22, 2018.


Charlotte

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:302.0
Current RPI:312
Expected SOS:216
Current SOS:274
Current Record:4-13
Expected Record:7-21
Current Conf Record:1-6
Expected Conf Record:4-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-8
Current OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC RPI:322
Expected OOC SOS:328



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-15221.00.01%
12-16230.40.09%
11-17248.10.72%
10-18263.73.55%
9-19279.011.41%
8-20293.023.68%
7-21305.728.94%
6-22316.420.81%
5-23324.49.15%
4-24331.01.63%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Charlotte.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Oklahoma St. (95.1)B12A83-65L0%0.0
11-18College of Charleston (108.4)CAAH72-81L0%0.0
11-20Presbyterian (326.2)BSthH83-74W100%0.0
11-24High Point (224.8)BSthH70-67W100%0.0
11-28Davidson (82.8)A10H70-85L0%0.0
12-2James Madison (278.4)CAAA87-82L0%0.0
12-5Wake Forest (134.2)ACCH57-80L0%0.0
12-10Chattanooga (287.7)SCA64-50L0%0.0
12-18East Carolina (280.0)AmerA50-69W100%0.0
12-21South Florida (296.8)AmerA78-76L0%0.0
12-30Old Dominion (74.5)CUSAA89-58L0%0.0
1-4North Texas (217.6)CUSAA68-70W100%0.0
1-6Rice (321.9)CUSAA73-64L0%0.0
1-11Marshall (100.9)CUSAH83-91L0%0.0
1-13Western Kentucky (45.2)CUSAH63-73L0%0.0
1-18Florida Atlantic (239.7)CUSAA75-64L0%0.0
1-20FIU (288.5)CUSAA79-59L0%0.0
1-27Old Dominion (74.5)CUSAH0-015%-11.4
2-1UAB (126.7)CUSAH0-018%-10.2
2-3Middle Tennessee (32.6)CUSAH0-012%-13.0
2-8Louisiana Tech (159.8)CUSAA0-013%-12.3
2-10Southern Miss (222.5)CUSAA0-031%-5.5
2-15UTEP (284.2)CUSAH0-050%0.0
2-17UTSA (249.0)CUSAH0-046%-1.2
2-22Western Kentucky (45.2)CUSAA0-05%-18.4
2-24Marshall (100.9)CUSAA0-013%-12.5
3-1FIU (288.5)CUSAH0-057%2.0
3-3Florida Atlantic (239.7)CUSAH0-057%2.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Charlotte's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Charlotte's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Charlotte.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
CharlotteCUSA26.3826.1725.3224.21-13.02-13.50
Old DominionCUSA3.514.3577.7875.651.952.23
FIUCUSA3.264.3131.2532.78-1.22-1.49
MarshallCUSA3.184.2866.6761.471.060.98
Florida AtlanticCUSA3.184.2833.3334.97-1.06-1.29
Western KentuckyCUSA3.104.2566.6768.911.031.61
UABCUSA0.412.5661.1163.510.090.69
North TexasCUSA3.102.5447.0648.32-0.18-0.09
RiceCUSA3.102.545.8814.74-2.74-1.79
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.332.5372.2274.260.151.23
UTSACUSA0.422.5041.1839.11-0.07-0.54
Louisiana TechCUSA0.322.4752.6354.160.020.21
UTEPCUSA0.342.4733.3333.54-0.11-0.81
Southern MissCUSA0.322.4741.1837.29-0.06-0.63
James MadisonCAA3.112.0021.0525.77-1.80-0.97
South FloridaAmer3.271.9831.5823.67-1.21-1.04
High PointBSth3.101.8846.6751.19-0.210.04
College of CharlestonCAA3.031.8864.7164.360.890.54
ChattanoogaSC3.021.8817.6526.02-1.95-0.90
PresbyterianBSth3.031.8529.4128.11-1.25-0.81
East CarolinaAmer3.091.8444.4433.62-0.34-0.60
DavidsonA102.941.7956.2560.070.370.36
Oklahoma St.B122.941.7966.6752.500.980.09
Wake ForestACC2.941.7938.8938.41-0.65-0.41
William & MaryCAA0.390.2864.7160.010.120.06
TowsonCAA0.330.2563.1665.980.090.08
ElonCAA0.320.2252.6351.090.020.00
RichmondA100.310.2131.5834.35-0.12-0.07
RadfordBSth0.230.1957.8958.880.040.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.180.1957.8966.270.030.06
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.250.1822.2227.31-0.14-0.08
TulsaAmer0.150.1855.0053.330.020.01
SMUAmer0.150.1870.0070.610.060.07
CampbellBSth0.250.1647.0647.41-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.180.1625.0031.44-0.09-0.06
LibertyBSth0.250.1650.0054.180.000.01
Texas TechB120.170.1578.9571.750.100.07
MemphisAmer0.000.1565.0058.540.000.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.240.1531.5832.71-0.09-0.05
Indiana St.MVC0.240.1544.4446.03-0.03-0.01
HoustonAmer0.230.1578.9573.000.130.07
Gardner WebbBSth0.170.1338.8940.78-0.04-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.170.1316.6716.15-0.12-0.09
UNC AshevilleBSth0.170.1352.6358.610.010.02
WinthropBSth0.170.1350.0059.430.000.02
Western CarolinaSC0.260.1338.8935.38-0.06-0.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.250.1350.0052.500.000.01
The CitadelSC0.250.1318.7518.37-0.15-0.08
Missouri St.MVC0.170.1370.0068.290.070.05
VMISC0.170.1225.0024.14-0.08-0.06
DelawareCAA0.160.1247.3743.00-0.01-0.02
DrexelCAA0.160.1230.0030.97-0.06-0.05
HofstraCAA0.160.1257.8959.500.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.230.1263.1663.210.060.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.160.1268.7567.610.060.04
AkronMAC0.250.1247.0644.92-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.Amer0.310.1278.9577.380.180.07
OklahomaB120.240.1277.7868.030.130.04
Appalachian St.SB0.230.1231.5836.23-0.09-0.03
TulaneAmer0.000.1263.1657.870.000.02
TempleAmer0.080.1252.6351.740.000.00
OhioMAC0.150.1247.0648.43-0.01-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.090.1050.0045.850.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.250.1072.2268.930.110.04
WoffordSC0.170.1068.7563.660.070.03
Arkansas St.SB0.170.0927.7831.08-0.07-0.04
South CarolinaSEC0.090.0961.1151.910.020.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.160.0927.7838.12-0.07-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.080.0983.3381.450.050.06
PittsburghACC0.170.0940.0030.88-0.03-0.04
StetsonASun0.160.0933.3336.93-0.05-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.090.0983.3384.250.060.06
Florida St.ACC0.080.0973.6869.660.040.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.160.0950.0051.390.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.160.0965.0056.350.050.01
George MasonA100.160.0945.0041.29-0.02-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0952.6347.380.00-0.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.240.0945.0045.03-0.02-0.01
BelmontOVC0.080.0971.4374.670.030.04
DaytonA100.080.0947.3750.94-0.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.080.0952.6343.040.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.160.0926.3231.48-0.08-0.03
VCUA100.080.0960.0059.710.020.02
IllinoisB100.150.0945.0043.62-0.02-0.01
TexasB120.080.0965.0058.600.020.02
UCFAmer0.150.0968.4260.830.060.02
Austin PeayOVC0.150.0944.4446.01-0.02-0.01
MinnesotaB100.090.0763.6457.610.030.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.0741.1839.14-0.02-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.0610.0016.770.00-0.04
TroySB0.000.0638.8944.430.00-0.01
HartfordAE0.090.0650.0045.930.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.090.0645.0047.06-0.01-0.00
North FloridaASun0.090.0631.5835.15-0.03-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.160.0626.3230.45-0.08-0.02
NebraskaB100.080.0663.6459.480.020.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.160.0655.5657.250.020.01
Texas St.SB0.080.0657.8950.210.010.00
Virginia TechACC0.160.0670.0060.400.060.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0615.7922.64-0.06-0.03
AuburnSEC0.000.0689.4776.990.000.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.080.0677.7879.160.050.04
FordhamA100.090.0631.5829.03-0.03-0.03
FurmanSC0.080.0666.6768.540.030.02
Georgia St.SB0.160.0666.6765.550.050.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.160.0636.8444.03-0.04-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.160.0670.0068.210.070.02
MercerSC0.080.0644.4454.87-0.010.01
MississippiSEC0.080.0652.6345.860.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.080.0645.0048.57-0.01-0.00
SamfordSC0.080.0627.7832.67-0.04-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.090.0666.6768.750.030.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.080.0680.0078.870.050.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.160.0660.0062.010.030.01
George WashingtonA100.090.0645.0043.49-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.080.065.8819.39-0.07-0.04
Miami FLACC0.000.0677.7870.410.000.02
North CarolinaACC0.160.0676.1972.570.090.03
VirginiaACC0.160.0694.7486.110.150.04
CincinnatiAmer0.150.0689.4785.550.120.04
HowardMEAC0.070.0610.5326.29-0.06-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.060.0010.26-0.08-0.05
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0658.8249.740.01-0.00
DukeACC0.080.0689.4785.240.060.04
FairfieldMAAC0.080.0638.8944.07-0.02-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0615.0020.28-0.05-0.04
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0623.5328.71-0.04-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0617.6534.76-0.05-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0647.0654.68-0.000.01
PurdueB100.080.0690.4888.390.060.05
SouthernSWAC0.080.0631.5840.82-0.03-0.01
SyracuseACC0.080.0668.4261.280.030.01
ToledoMAC0.080.0666.6767.670.030.02
VillanovaBE0.080.0694.7490.310.070.05
WisconsinB100.080.0650.0046.270.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.080.0668.4269.260.030.02
XavierBE0.080.0685.7180.060.060.04
BaylorB120.080.0657.8953.280.010.00
Iowa St.B120.080.0657.8946.220.01-0.00
KansasB120.000.0684.2179.760.000.03
Kansas St.B120.080.0675.0065.320.040.02
TCUB120.000.0675.0067.830.000.02
West VirginiaB120.080.0680.0076.040.050.03
MichiganB100.000.0376.1970.800.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0372.2258.880.000.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0358.8257.130.000.00
South DakotaSum0.000.0373.6872.400.000.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0321.0523.520.00-0.02
BradleyMVC0.000.0365.0057.890.000.01
Cal PolyBW0.080.0323.5328.20-0.04-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.080.030.003.06-0.08-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0343.7549.11-0.01-0.00
SienaMAAC0.080.0328.5729.93-0.04-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.037.6923.240.00-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0366.6766.030.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0368.4259.020.000.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0378.9576.980.000.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0372.2274.940.000.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.080.0352.3848.530.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0320.0023.33-0.05-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.039.5217.86-0.06-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.030.008.42-0.08-0.03
DuquesneA100.000.0370.0058.090.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0352.6347.500.00-0.00
Fort WayneSum0.000.0352.6351.680.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.080.0368.4254.080.030.00
HawaiiBW0.090.0368.7564.010.030.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.037.6920.080.00-0.02
IowaB100.000.0347.6243.940.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0338.8943.360.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0333.3333.760.00-0.01
La SalleA100.000.0340.0042.690.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.000.0350.0054.900.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0383.3381.420.000.02
MassachusettsA100.000.0350.0046.810.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0328.5731.24-0.04-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.0350.0047.650.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.0370.5975.960.000.02
NevadaMWC0.090.0385.7182.120.060.02
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0337.5045.240.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0344.4450.310.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.080.037.1414.82-0.07-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.0352.9460.230.000.01
RutgersB100.080.0355.0046.650.01-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0350.0051.640.000.00
Saint LouisA100.090.0347.3746.93-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.080.0363.1657.530.020.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0342.1143.500.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0335.2940.460.00-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0357.8953.220.010.00
UNLVMWC0.080.0373.6865.250.040.01
USCP120.000.0371.4368.300.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0336.8435.580.00-0.01
Washington St.P120.000.0347.3741.430.00-0.01
WyomingMWC0.080.0361.1156.790.020.00
ArmyPat0.080.0361.1160.440.020.01
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0365.0054.600.020.00
ClemsonACC0.000.0384.2173.180.000.01
DrakeMVC0.080.0355.0048.980.01-0.00
FloridaSEC0.070.0373.6871.600.030.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0366.6765.390.030.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.0378.9569.820.000.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.070.0366.6773.220.020.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0363.1661.000.000.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.080.0335.0031.82-0.02-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.070.0356.2557.430.010.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.0368.4264.160.000.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0346.6747.00-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.070.0360.0052.880.010.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0333.3340.35-0.02-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.0311.1115.30-0.06-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0330.0032.54-0.03-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.080.0310.5318.34-0.06-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0368.4263.970.030.01