Charlotte

Conference:	CUSA
Expected RPI:	323.0
Current RPI:	323
Expected SOS:	214
Current SOS:	214
Current Record:	5-23
Expected Record:	5-23
Current Conf Record:	2-16
Expected Conf Record:	2-16
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	5-9
Current OOC Record:	3-7
Expected OOC Record:	3-7
Expected OOC RPI:	315
Expected OOC SOS:	315

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
5-23	323.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Charlotte.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-13	Oklahoma St. (88.0)	B12	A	83-65	L	0%
11-18	College of Charleston (57.0)	CAA	H	72-81	L	0%
11-20	Presbyterian (319.0)	BSth	H	83-74	W	100%
11-24	High Point (273.0)	BSth	H	70-67	W	100%
11-28	Davidson (47.0)	A10	H	70-85	L	0%
12-2	James Madison (272.0)	CAA	A	87-82	L	0%
12-5	Wake Forest (160.0)	ACC	H	57-80	L	0%
12-10	Chattanooga (304.0)	SC	A	64-50	L	0%
12-18	East Carolina (274.0)	Amer	A	50-69	W	100%
12-21	South Florida (278.0)	Amer	A	78-76	L	0%
12-30	Old Dominion (78.0)	CUSA	A	89-58	L	0%
1-4	North Texas (235.0)	CUSA	A	68-70	W	100%
1-6	Rice (328.0)	CUSA	A	73-64	L	0%
1-11	Marshall (87.0)	CUSA	H	83-91	L	0%
1-13	Western Kentucky (39.0)	CUSA	H	63-73	L	0%
1-18	Florida Atlantic (275.0)	CUSA	A	75-64	L	0%
1-20	FIU (295.0)	CUSA	A	79-59	L	0%
1-27	Old Dominion (78.0)	CUSA	H	66-88	L	0%
2-1	UAB (155.0)	CUSA	H	64-76	L	0%
2-3	Middle Tennessee (33.0)	CUSA	H	73-78	L	0%
2-8	Louisiana Tech (192.0)	CUSA	A	83-65	L	0%
2-10	Southern Miss (207.0)	CUSA	A	72-54	L	0%
2-15	UTEP (293.0)	CUSA	H	86-87	L	0%
2-17	UTSA (187.0)	CUSA	H	89-97	L	0%
2-22	Western Kentucky (39.0)	CUSA	A	93-55	L	0%
2-24	Marshall (87.0)	CUSA	A	103-75	L	0%
3-1	FIU (295.0)	CUSA	H	83-89	L	0%
3-3	Florida Atlantic (275.0)	CUSA	H	85-78	W	100%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Charlotte's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Charlotte's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Charlotte.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Charlotte	CUSA	26.11	26.11	16.91	16.91	-17.28	-17.28
Old Dominion	CUSA	4.39	4.39	76.67	76.67	2.34	2.34
Marshall	CUSA	4.35	4.35	67.74	67.74	1.55	1.55
Western Kentucky	CUSA	4.35	4.35	67.74	67.74	1.54	1.54
FIU	CUSA	4.30	4.30	33.33	33.33	-1.43	-1.43
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	4.27	4.27	30.77	30.77	-1.64	-1.64
UAB	CUSA	2.63	2.63	56.67	56.67	0.35	0.35
Southern Miss	CUSA	2.57	2.57	37.93	37.93	-0.62	-0.62
UTSA	CUSA	2.54	2.54	51.72	51.72	0.09	0.09
North Texas	CUSA	2.53	2.53	44.83	44.83	-0.26	-0.26
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	2.52	2.52	46.67	46.67	-0.17	-0.17
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	2.51	2.51	75.86	75.86	1.30	1.30
Rice	CUSA	2.50	2.50	14.29	14.29	-1.78	-1.78
UTEP	CUSA	2.46	2.46	31.03	31.03	-0.93	-0.93
James Madison	CAA	1.99	1.99	26.67	26.67	-0.93	-0.93
South Florida	Amer	1.97	1.97	29.03	29.03	-0.83	-0.83
College of Charleston	CAA	1.88	1.88	76.67	76.67	1.00	1.00
High Point	BSth	1.88	1.88	42.31	42.31	-0.29	-0.29
Chattanooga	SC	1.87	1.87	23.33	23.33	-1.00	-1.00
Presbyterian	BSth	1.85	1.85	28.57	28.57	-0.79	-0.79
East Carolina	Amer	1.84	1.84	34.48	34.48	-0.57	-0.57
Davidson	A10	1.79	1.79	64.52	64.52	0.52	0.52
Oklahoma St.	B12	1.79	1.79	56.25	56.25	0.22	0.22
Wake Forest	ACC	1.79	1.79	33.33	33.33	-0.60	-0.60
William & Mary	CAA	0.29	0.29	58.62	58.62	0.05	0.05
Towson	CAA	0.23	0.23	53.33	53.33	0.02	0.02
Elon	CAA	0.20	0.20	40.00	40.00	-0.04	-0.04
Richmond	A10	0.20	0.20	37.50	37.50	-0.05	-0.05
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.19	0.19	42.86	42.86	-0.03	-0.03
Radford	BSth	0.19	0.19	62.50	62.50	0.05	0.05
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.18	0.18	64.52	64.52	0.05	0.05
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.17	0.17	30.00	30.00	-0.07	-0.07
Drexel	CAA	0.17	0.17	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
Tulsa	Amer	0.17	0.17	61.29	61.29	0.04	0.04
Memphis	Amer	0.17	0.17	61.76	61.76	0.04	0.04
SMU	Amer	0.17	0.17	51.52	51.52	0.01	0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.16	0.16	13.33	13.33	-0.12	-0.12
Campbell	BSth	0.16	0.16	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.16	0.16	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Texas Tech	B12	0.15	0.15	72.73	72.73	0.07	0.07
Houston	Amer	0.14	0.14	78.79	78.79	0.08	0.08
Northeastern	CAA	0.14	0.14	68.75	68.75	0.05	0.05
Oklahoma	B12	0.14	0.14	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.14	0.14	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.14	0.14	31.03	31.03	-0.05	-0.05
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.13	0.13	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.13	0.13	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Winthrop	BSth	0.13	0.13	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.12	0.12	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.12	0.12	27.59	27.59	-0.05	-0.05
Western Carolina	SC	0.12	0.12	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Missouri St.	MVC	0.12	0.12	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.12	0.12	77.42	77.42	0.06	0.06
VMI	SC	0.12	0.12	25.00	25.00	-0.06	-0.06
Tulane	Amer	0.12	0.12	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
UCF	Amer	0.12	0.12	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.12	0.12	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Hofstra	CAA	0.12	0.12	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Appalachian St.	SB	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Wichita St.	Amer	0.11	0.11	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Temple	Amer	0.11	0.11	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.11	0.11	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Akron	MAC	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.11	0.11	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.09	0.09	75.76	75.76	0.05	0.05
Arkansas St.	SB	0.09	0.09	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
South Alabama	SB	0.09	0.09	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wofford	SC	0.09	0.09	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Stetson	ASun	0.09	0.09	28.57	28.57	-0.04	-0.04
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.09	0.09	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.09	0.09	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Connecticut	Amer	0.09	0.09	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.09	0.09	83.33	83.33	0.06	0.06
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.09	0.09	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.09	0.09	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.09	0.09	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
Samford	SC	0.09	0.09	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Syracuse	ACC	0.09	0.09	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.09	0.09	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
George Mason	A10	0.09	0.09	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.08	0.08	60.71	60.71	0.02	0.02
Belmont	OVC	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Dayton	A10	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
VCU	A10	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Illinois	B10	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
Texas	B12	0.08	0.08	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.08	0.08	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
Minnesota	B10	0.06	0.06	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Hartford	AE	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Milwaukee	Horz	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
North Florida	ASun	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
New Mexico	MWC	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Texas St.	SB	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
UT Arlington	SB	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Georgia St.	SB	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.04	0.04
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Nebraska	B10	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	9.68	9.68	-0.05	-0.05
Auburn	SEC	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Miami FL	ACC	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Troy	SB	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	Amer	0.06	0.06	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Howard	MEAC	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Duke	ACC	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Furman	SC	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Mercer	SC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.06	0.06	10.71	10.71	-0.04	-0.04
North Carolina	ACC	0.06	0.06	71.43	71.43	0.02	0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.06	0.06	93.94	93.94	0.05	0.05
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	12.50	12.50	-0.04	-0.04
Bowling Green	MAC	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Fairfield	MAAC	0.06	0.06	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Fordham	A10	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
George Washington	A10	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.06	0.06	16.67	16.67	-0.04	-0.04
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Louis	A10	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	22.22	22.22	-0.03	-0.03
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.05	82.35	82.35	0.04	0.04
Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
TCU	B12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
West Virginia	B12	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Xavier	BE	0.05	0.05	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
Chicago St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	3.33	3.33	-0.03	-0.03
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	8.00	8.00	-0.03	-0.03
UNLV	MWC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	32.35	32.35	-0.01	-0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	15.62	15.62	-0.02	-0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.03	-0.03
Georgetown	BE	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.03	0.03	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	32.00	32.00	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	82.76	82.76	0.02	0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Rutgers	B10	0.03	0.03	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.03	0.03	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.03	0.03	30.77	30.77	-0.01	-0.01
USC	P12	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Utah Valley	WAC	0.03	0.03	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Army	Pat	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Cal Poly	BW	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Georgia Southern	SB	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Louisville	ACC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Montana St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
New Orleans	Slnd	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Notre Dame	ACC	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.03	0.03	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Siena	MAAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Weber St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Hawaii	BW	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Arkansas	SEC	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.03	0.03	16.13	16.13	-0.02	-0.02
Texas A&M	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01