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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.


Charlotte

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:68.0
Current RPI:68
Expected SOS:104
Current SOS:104
Current Record:21-11
Expected Record:21-11
Current Conf Record:9-9
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-0
Current OOC Record:12-2
Expected OOC Record:12-2
Expected OOC RPI:61
Expected OOC SOS:237



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-1168.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Charlotte.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Charleston Southern (189.0)BSthH68-58W100%0.0
11-13Georgia Southern (266.0)SCH66-53W100%0.0
11-17Lamar (335.0)SlndH70-49W100%0.0
11-22Texas St. (272.0)WACN64-73W100%0.0
11-23Oral Roberts (151.0)SlndN72-58W100%0.0
11-24Northeastern (159.0)CAAN67-59W100%0.0
12-1East Carolina (100.0)CUSAH76-64W100%0.0
12-5Davidson (61.0)SCA69-73W100%0.0
12-8Central Michigan (268.0)MACH78-66W100%0.0
12-14Miami FL (4.0)ACCA77-46L0%0.0
12-16Kennesaw St. (341.0)ASunA52-66W100%0.0
12-19Radford (316.0)BSthH68-52W100%0.0
12-22Florida St. (85.0)ACCH76-79L0%0.0
1-2NC Asheville (217.0)BSthH71-63W100%0.0
1-9La Salle (46.0)A10H74-65W100%0.0
1-12Rhode Island (201.0)A10A50-58W100%0.0
1-16Fordham (228.0)A10H74-68W100%0.0
1-19Richmond (92.0)A10A81-61L0%0.0
1-23Xavier (87.0)A10H63-57W100%0.0
1-26George Washington (147.0)A10A82-54L0%0.0
2-2Massachusetts (57.0)A10H66-65W100%0.0
2-6Temple (42.0)A10A89-88L0%0.0
2-9Virginia Commonwealth (24.0)A10H61-68L0%0.0
2-13Butler (22.0)A10A67-71W100%0.0
2-16St. Louis (15.0)A10A76-58L0%0.0
2-24Temple (42.0)A10H51-71L0%0.0
2-27Dayton (114.0)A10H67-88L0%0.0
3-2St. Bonaventure (139.0)A10A104-83L0%0.0
3-6Duquesne (229.0)A10A87-89W100%0.0
3-9Saint Joseph's (82.0)A10H52-40W100%0.0
3-14Richmond (92.0)A10N63-68W100%0.0
3-15St. Louis (15.0)A10N72-55L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Charlotte's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Charlotte's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Charlotte.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
CharlotteA1025.9525.9564.0864.087.317.31
St. LouisA103.603.6080.6580.652.202.20
RichmondA103.573.5756.6756.670.480.48
TempleA103.553.5570.0070.001.421.42
MassachusettsA102.192.1967.7467.740.780.78
ButlerA102.162.1678.1278.121.211.21
Virginia CommonwealthA102.132.1375.7675.761.101.10
Saint Joseph'sA102.082.0860.0060.000.420.42
La SalleA102.082.0872.4172.410.930.93
XavierA102.062.0656.6756.670.270.27
George WashingtonA102.042.0441.3841.38-0.35-0.35
DaytonA102.042.0453.3353.330.140.14
FordhamA102.042.0423.3323.33-1.09-1.09
DuquesneA102.012.0127.5927.59-0.90-0.90
St. BonaventureA102.012.0146.4346.43-0.14-0.14
Rhode IslandA102.012.0128.5728.57-0.86-0.86
DavidsonSC1.691.6980.6580.651.031.03
NC AshevilleBSth1.671.6746.4346.43-0.12-0.12
Texas St.WAC1.661.6634.3834.38-0.52-0.52
Georgia SouthernSC1.661.6640.0040.00-0.33-0.33
Miami FLACC1.661.6681.2581.251.041.04
RadfordBSth1.641.6435.7135.71-0.47-0.47
Charleston SouthernBSth1.641.6459.2659.260.300.30
NortheasternCAA1.641.6464.5264.520.480.48
LamarSlnd1.641.6410.0010.00-1.31-1.31
Oral RobertsSlnd1.641.6456.6756.670.220.22
Florida St.ACC1.641.6453.1253.120.100.10
Kennesaw St.ASun1.611.6110.3410.34-1.28-1.28
East CarolinaCUSA1.591.5956.0056.000.190.19
Central MichiganMAC1.591.5934.4834.48-0.49-0.49
WinthropBSth0.210.2139.2939.29-0.05-0.05
WoffordSC0.200.2038.7138.71-0.04-0.04
North CarolinaACC0.200.2069.7069.700.080.08
LibertyBSth0.190.1937.5037.50-0.05-0.05
The CitadelSC0.180.1821.4321.43-0.10-0.10
Appalachian St.SC0.180.1844.8344.83-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.170.1770.5970.590.070.07
Wake ForestACC0.170.1741.9441.94-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.170.1784.3884.380.110.11
Gardner WebbBSth0.170.1760.0060.000.030.03
Virginia Military InstBSth0.160.1639.2939.29-0.03-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.160.1619.3519.35-0.10-0.10
College of CharlestonSC0.150.1572.7372.730.070.07
BuffaloMAC0.150.1537.5037.50-0.04-0.04
DelawareCAA0.150.1557.5857.580.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.150.1558.8258.820.030.03
George MasonCAA0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
NC WilmingtonCAA0.150.1531.0331.03-0.06-0.06
PennsylvaniaIvy0.150.1529.0329.03-0.06-0.06
StetsonASun0.150.1546.6746.67-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.150.1585.2985.290.100.10
CampbellBSth0.140.1436.6736.67-0.04-0.04
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.140.1442.3142.31-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.140.1417.2417.24-0.09-0.09
UABCUSA0.130.1346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
MemphisCUSA0.130.1388.2488.240.100.10
Georgia St.CAA0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.130.1329.0329.03-0.05-0.05
SienaMAAC0.130.1325.0025.00-0.06-0.06
South Carolina UpstateASun0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.130.1372.7372.730.060.06
TowsonCAA0.130.1356.6756.670.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.120.1240.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCAA0.120.1216.6716.67-0.08-0.08
Boston CollegeACC0.120.1248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
TulsaCUSA0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
High PointBSth0.110.1153.5753.570.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.100.1013.7913.79-0.07-0.07
AlabamaSEC0.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
North FloridaASun0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.100.1070.3770.370.040.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.100.1085.1985.190.070.07
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.100.1017.8617.86-0.06-0.06
Kent St.MAC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
VillanovaBE0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
FurmanSC0.100.1017.2417.24-0.07-0.07
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
ElonSC0.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
Georgia TechACC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.100.1031.2531.25-0.04-0.04
MarylandACC0.100.1064.7164.710.030.03
VirginiaACC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Central FloridaCUSA0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
Southern MethodistCUSA0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
NC GreensboroSC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
RiceCUSA0.080.0813.7913.79-0.06-0.06
ProvidenceBE0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
IonaMAAC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
BradleyMVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Notre DameBE0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
PittsburghBE0.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
ArizonaP120.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
AuburnSEC0.080.0828.1228.12-0.03-0.03
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
MercerASun0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.070.0719.3519.35-0.05-0.05
HarvardIvy0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
MaineAE0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.070.0780.0080.000.040.04
North TexasSB0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
DetroitHorz0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
MinnesotaB100.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
New MexicoMWC0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
DenverWAC0.070.0770.0070.000.030.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
SeattleWAC0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
MarshallCUSA0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Southern MississippiCUSA0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Texas El PasoCUSA0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
RiderMAAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
AkronMAC0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
LipscombASun0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
VermontAE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Kansas St.B120.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Boston UniversityAE0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
PacificBW0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
PurdueB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
New Orleansind0.050.0518.1818.18-0.03-0.03
UtahP120.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.050.0559.2659.260.010.01
SamfordSC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
IUPUISum0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
SyracuseBE0.050.0574.2974.290.020.02
WagnerNEC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
LehighPat0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.050.0593.7593.750.040.04
UC RiversideBW0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
IdahoWAC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechWAC0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
NorthwesternB100.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.WAC0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0528.0028.00-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Texas ArlingtonWAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Texas San AntonioWAC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Utah St.WAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
WashingtonP120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
HoustonCUSA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
TulaneCUSA0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
CornellIvy0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0357.6957.690.000.00
Loyola MDMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
St. Mary'sWCC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
AlbanyAE0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
BucknellPat0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
NebraskaB100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
RutgersBE0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
AmericanPat0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
CincinnatiBE0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
ColoradoP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
ConnecticutBE0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
CreightonMVC0.030.0379.4179.410.010.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticSB0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Long IslandNEC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
MonmouthNEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
OklahomaB120.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Southern CaliforniaP120.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.020.0279.3179.310.010.01
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
Brigham YoungWCC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
FloridaSEC0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
HawaiiBW0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
IllinoisB100.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
IndianaB100.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0214.8114.81-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Michigan St.B100.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
TexasB120.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
MissouriSEC0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Western KentuckySB0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00