live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Bracket Busters - Blog


Through games of Mar 11, 2012.

Charlotte

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:167.0
Current RPI:167
Expected SOS:129
Current SOS:129
Current Record:13-17
Expected Record:13-17
Current Conf Record:5-12
Expected Conf Record:5-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-0
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:127
Expected OOC SOS:233


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-17167.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Charlotte.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11North Carolina Central (233.0)MEACH73-57W100%0.0
11-15Central Michigan (280.0)MACA75-77W100%0.0
11-19Lamar (108.0)SlndA72-54L0%0.0
11-22East Tennessee St. (179.0)ASunH69-70L0%0.0
11-26Wright St. (224.0)HorzA66-70W100%0.0
12-3East Carolina (164.0)CUSAA64-76W100%0.0
12-6Radford (329.0)BSthA49-57W100%0.0
12-10Davidson (66.0)SCH84-61W100%0.0
12-19Coppin St. (276.0)MEACH74-63W100%0.0
12-22Miami FL (60.0)ACCH61-76L0%0.0
12-28Arkansas (110.0)SECA80-67L0%0.0
12-31Memphis (16.0)CUSAA67-58L0%0.0
1-4Richmond (127.0)A10H75-70W100%0.0
1-7Saint Joseph's (69.0)A10A52-57W100%0.0
1-11Massachusetts (76.0)A10A85-75L0%0.0
1-14St. Louis (31.0)A10H67-68L0%0.0
1-18Kennesaw St. (331.0)ASunH74-63W100%0.0
1-21George Washington (188.0)A10A60-52L0%0.0
1-25Temple (19.0)A10H57-79L0%0.0
1-28Xavier (41.0)A10H70-74L0%0.0
2-1La Salle (90.0)A10A85-72L0%0.0
2-4Fordham (240.0)A10A62-69W100%0.0
2-11Rhode Island (257.0)A10H73-66W100%0.0
2-15Dayton (81.0)A10A75-65L0%0.0
2-18Richmond (127.0)A10A53-52L0%0.0
2-22George Washington (188.0)A10H72-62W100%0.0
2-25St. Bonaventure (72.0)A10H56-72L0%0.0
2-29Duquesne (109.0)A10H77-88L0%0.0
3-3Xavier (41.0)A10A72-63L0%0.0
3-6Saint Joseph's (69.0)A10A80-64L0%0.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Charlotte's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Charlotte's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Charlotte.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.


Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
CharlotteA1026.0126.0144.3744.37-2.93-2.93
Saint Joseph'sA103.893.8961.2961.290.880.88
XavierA103.893.8961.2961.290.880.88
RichmondA103.893.8950.0050.000.000.00
George WashingtonA103.833.8331.0331.03-1.45-1.45
MassachusettsA102.362.3665.6265.620.740.74
DaytonA102.302.3061.2961.290.520.52
St. BonaventureA102.302.3063.3363.330.610.61
La SalleA102.272.2762.5062.500.570.57
St. LouisA102.272.2776.6776.671.211.21
TempleA102.242.2476.6776.671.201.20
DuquesneA102.192.1948.2848.28-0.08-0.08
Rhode IslandA102.172.1723.3323.33-1.16-1.16
FordhamA102.172.1735.7135.71-0.62-0.62
MemphisCUSA1.811.8175.7675.760.930.93
East CarolinaCUSA1.771.7742.3142.31-0.27-0.27
Coppin St.MEAC1.751.7540.0040.00-0.35-0.35
DavidsonSC1.741.7480.0080.001.051.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC1.731.7348.1548.15-0.06-0.06
East Tennessee St.ASun1.721.7251.7251.720.060.06
Kennesaw St.ASun1.721.726.906.90-1.48-1.48
Central MichiganMAC1.721.7233.3333.33-0.57-0.57
Miami FLACC1.721.7260.0060.000.340.34
Wright St.Horz1.691.6940.0040.00-0.34-0.34
ArkansasSEC1.671.6754.8454.840.160.16
LamarSlnd1.671.6764.5264.520.480.48
RadfordBSth1.671.6713.7913.79-1.21-1.21
Morgan St.MEAC0.190.1931.0331.03-0.07-0.07
North FloridaASun0.190.1948.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.180.1820.6920.69-0.10-0.10
HamptonMEAC0.170.1736.3636.36-0.05-0.05
UABCUSA0.160.1648.3948.39-0.01-0.01
BelmontASun0.160.1678.7978.790.090.09
South Carolina UpstateASun0.160.1660.0060.000.030.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
Central FloridaCUSA0.160.1666.6766.670.050.05
Southern MississippiCUSA0.140.1474.1974.190.070.07
Appalachian St.SC0.140.1437.9337.93-0.03-0.03
RiceCUSA0.140.1448.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.140.1445.1645.16-0.01-0.01
NC GreensboroSC0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
PurdueB100.140.1463.6463.640.040.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.140.1456.6756.670.020.02
LipscombASun0.140.1440.0040.00-0.03-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.140.1460.6160.610.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.130.1337.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.130.1335.4835.48-0.04-0.04
HarvardIvy0.130.1386.2186.210.100.10
Boston CollegeACC0.130.1329.0329.03-0.06-0.06
ButlerHorz0.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
Miami OHMAC0.130.1327.5927.59-0.06-0.06
PennsylvaniaIvy0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
VillanovaBE0.130.1340.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.120.1248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.120.1210.3410.34-0.09-0.09
Savannah St.MEAC0.120.1263.3363.330.030.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.120.1248.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDMAAC0.110.1175.0075.000.060.06
JacksonvilleASun0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
MercerASun0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
StetsonASun0.110.1128.5728.57-0.05-0.05
IllinoisB100.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.110.1164.7164.710.030.03
George MasonCAA0.110.1172.7372.730.050.05
MarylandACC0.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.110.1139.3939.39-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
OhioMAC0.110.1178.7978.790.060.06
Cleveland St.Horz0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
DetroitHorz0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
ToledoMAC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.110.1164.2964.290.030.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.110.1125.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Penn St.B100.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.110.1172.7372.730.050.05
TulsaCUSA0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.110.1182.3582.350.070.07
CincinnatiBE0.110.1170.5970.590.040.04
MississippiSEC0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
TennesseeSEC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
Boston UniversityAE0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
AmericanPat0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
IonaMAAC0.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
HowardMEAC0.090.0930.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.090.0925.8125.81-0.04-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.0931.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
OklahomaB120.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Virginia Military InstBSth0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCAA0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
TowsonCAA0.080.083.123.12-0.08-0.08
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
SyracuseBE0.080.0893.9493.940.070.07
PresbyterianBSth0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
HoustonCUSA0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
DukeACC0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
FurmanSC0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Texas El PasoCUSA0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.080.0894.1294.120.070.07
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0839.3939.39-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonSC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
ElonSC0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
RutgersBE0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Louisiana St.SEC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.080.0834.6234.62-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
BucknellPat0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
CampbellBSth0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0657.6957.690.010.01
ConnecticutBE0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.060.066.456.45-0.05-0.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
High PointBSth0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
NC AshevilleBSth0.060.0670.0070.000.020.02
TroySB0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
WinthropBSth0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Southern MethodistCUSA0.060.0636.6736.67-0.01-0.01
TulaneCUSA0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Texas St.Slnd0.050.0534.6234.62-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
ClemsonACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.056.906.90-0.05-0.05
Ball St.MAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
CaliforniaP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Georgia SouthernSC0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
NebraskaB100.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
SamfordSC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
TexasB120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0583.8783.870.040.04
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
WoffordSC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
PittsburghBE0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
FloridaSEC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
MinnesotaB100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
NC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.050.0516.1316.13-0.04-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
LouisvilleBE0.050.0574.2974.290.020.02
MichiganB100.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Murray St.OVC0.050.0596.4396.430.050.05
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
CreightonMVC0.050.0584.8584.850.040.04
DrexelCAA0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
GonzagaWCC0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
HawaiiWAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Western KentuckySB0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
San Jose St.WAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.030.0375.7675.760.020.02
OregonP120.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
ColgatePat0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
MonmouthNEC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Houston BaptistGWC0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Long IslandNEC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
MaristMAAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
MissouriB120.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
St. Mary'sWCC0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
WisconsinB100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
CornellIvy0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticSB0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.CAA0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
IdahoWAC0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Iowa St.B120.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
KansasB120.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
MaineAE0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
WashingtonP120.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
West VirginiaBE0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
YaleIvy0.030.0365.3865.380.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Florida InternationalSB0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
GramblingSWAC0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechWAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
OaklandSum0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Texas ArlingtonSlnd0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Texas ChristianMWC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Texas San AntonioSlnd0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Utah ValleyGWC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
ArmyPat0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacNEC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
RiderMAAC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
UtahP120.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02