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Through games of Dec 20, 2014.


Charlotte

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:85.6
Current RPI:46
Expected SOS:125
Current SOS:17
Current Record:6-5
Expected Record:20-11
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-2
Current OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:79
Expected OOC SOS:56



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-530.00.02%
25-634.70.26%
24-739.41.53%
23-848.05.46%
22-957.712.00%
21-1068.918.53%
20-1182.220.26%
19-1295.618.50%
18-13110.012.91%
17-14125.76.84%
16-15142.82.74%
15-16159.10.76%
14-17179.10.15%
13-18199.30.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Charlotte.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Elon (183.1)CAAA60-73W100%0.0
11-20Penn St. (97.8)B10N106-97W100%0.0
11-21South Carolina (39.3)SECN63-65W100%0.0
11-23Miami FL (42.5)ACCN58-77L0%0.0
11-25Miami FL (42.5)ACCH74-77L0%0.0
11-30UNC Asheville (226.2)BSthA63-66W100%0.0
12-3Davidson (27.6)A10A92-86L0%0.0
12-7George Washington (76.4)A10N78-70L0%0.0
12-16College of Charleston (184.8)CAAH90-85W100%0.0
12-18Appalachian St. (261.5)SBH75-65W100%0.0
12-20Georgetown (47.0)BEA81-78L0%0.0
12-30Georgia Tech (80.2)ACCA0-037%-3.8
1-4Old Dominion (43.7)CUSAH0-054%1.3
1-8Western Kentucky (144.1)CUSAA0-052%0.7
1-10Marshall (231.1)CUSAA0-061%3.4
1-15North Texas (246.7)CUSAH0-090%15.2
1-17Rice (285.0)CUSAH0-092%16.4
1-22UAB (237.4)CUSAA0-067%5.0
1-24Middle Tennessee (199.7)CUSAA0-064%4.1
1-29Florida Atlantic (192.4)CUSAH0-083%11.0
1-31FIU (164.5)CUSAH0-082%10.5
2-4North Carolina A&T (332.0)MEACH0-097%22.4
2-7Old Dominion (43.7)CUSAA0-027%-7.1
2-12UTEP (70.6)CUSAA0-032%-5.6
2-14UTSA (272.4)CUSAA0-074%7.6
2-19Louisiana Tech (121.8)CUSAH0-069%5.7
2-21Southern Miss (289.5)CUSAH0-096%19.8
2-26North Texas (246.7)CUSAA0-072%6.8
2-28Rice (285.0)CUSAA0-075%8.1
3-5Western Kentucky (144.1)CUSAH0-078%9.0
3-7Marshall (231.1)CUSAH0-084%11.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Charlotte's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Charlotte's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Charlotte.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
CharlotteCUSA28.0726.2056.6066.013.718.39
Old DominionCUSA0.003.9490.0083.960.002.68
MarshallCUSA0.443.9022.2237.22-0.25-1.00
North TexasCUSA0.003.8542.8638.19-0.00-0.91
Western KentuckyCUSA0.003.8550.0053.000.000.23
RiceCUSA0.003.8516.6727.83-0.00-1.70
Miami FLACC9.093.2877.7863.665.050.90
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.252.3242.8650.24-0.040.01
UTEPCUSA0.002.3060.0071.380.000.98
UTSACUSA0.002.3037.5036.12-0.00-0.64
FIUCUSA0.002.2944.4451.56-0.000.07
UABCUSA0.322.2730.0036.80-0.13-0.60
Louisiana TechCUSA0.002.2472.7368.770.000.84
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.002.2450.0048.270.00-0.08
Southern MissCUSA0.002.2342.8627.85-0.00-0.99
College of CharlestonCAA4.801.7550.0046.600.00-0.12
South CarolinaSEC4.871.7375.0068.372.440.63
George WashingtonA104.731.7062.5064.261.180.48
Penn St.B104.801.70100.0057.154.800.24
ElonCAA4.551.6950.0052.900.000.10
DavidsonA104.751.6987.5076.483.560.90
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.001.690.0024.44-0.00-0.87
Georgia TechACC0.281.6980.0052.940.170.10
UNC AshevilleBSth4.801.6716.6746.22-3.20-0.13
Appalachian St.SB4.551.6442.8635.87-0.65-0.46
GeorgetownBE4.551.6166.6757.761.520.25
LouisvilleACC0.000.27100.0084.930.000.19
William & MaryCAA0.000.2257.1457.100.000.03
DrexelCAA0.600.2222.2235.90-0.33-0.06
George MasonA100.210.1933.3330.21-0.07-0.08
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.250.1957.1455.330.040.02
AkronMAC0.860.1960.0056.150.170.02
Virginia TechACC0.470.1860.0038.030.09-0.04
RichmondA100.000.1760.0057.700.000.03
VCUA100.000.1772.7375.740.000.09
South AlabamaSB0.410.160.0031.89-0.41-0.06
LSUSEC0.000.1680.0063.910.000.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.410.1618.1827.33-0.26-0.07
North CarolinaACC0.250.1672.7374.850.110.08
Gardner WebbBSth0.210.1437.5050.31-0.050.00
CreightonBE0.000.1475.0052.140.000.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.1462.5072.070.000.06
DuquesneA100.190.1437.5034.06-0.05-0.04
Wake ForestACC0.320.1445.4537.60-0.03-0.03
VirginiaACC0.250.14100.0086.080.250.10
HofstraCAA0.280.1470.0076.180.110.07
TowsonCAA0.230.1460.0047.170.05-0.01
FloridaSEC0.640.1363.6465.220.170.04
ClemsonACC0.250.1360.0043.890.05-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.1366.6742.600.00-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.1354.5541.980.00-0.02
RadfordBSth0.230.1255.5658.650.030.02
Washington St.P120.000.1240.0028.13-0.00-0.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.120.0039.10-0.00-0.03
CampbellBSth0.460.1225.0043.93-0.23-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1160.0043.160.00-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.1166.6773.310.000.05
AlabamaSEC0.000.1166.6754.130.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.1180.0072.200.000.05
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1162.5059.050.000.02
Oklahoma St.B120.250.1188.8963.020.200.03
Arkansas St.SB0.000.1142.8648.87-0.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.1163.6467.210.000.04
MinnesotaB100.000.1180.0067.830.000.04
Morehead St.OVC0.000.1116.6737.21-0.00-0.03
DelawareCAA0.000.110.008.56-0.00-0.09
James MadisonCAA0.000.1163.6455.660.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.1170.0060.920.000.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.1175.0057.390.000.02
DukeACC0.250.11100.0087.090.250.08
WisconsinB100.230.1190.9188.840.190.08
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.1175.0061.480.000.02
Notre DameACC0.000.1191.6777.120.000.06
SyracuseACC0.000.1160.0058.120.000.02
LongwoodBSth0.250.0920.0025.85-0.15-0.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.320.0950.0037.570.00-0.02
StetsonASun0.250.0910.0027.17-0.20-0.04
Texas St.SB0.000.0950.0050.060.000.00
TroySB0.000.0933.3339.85-0.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0936.3646.72-0.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0970.0052.600.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.099.0917.12-0.00-0.06
BelmontOVC0.000.0863.6464.880.000.03
Murray St.OVC0.000.0860.0065.120.000.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.080.0017.97-0.00-0.05
Saint LouisA100.000.0860.0033.270.00-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0816.6743.20-0.00-0.01
DaytonA100.000.0880.0069.770.000.03
ButlerBE0.230.0872.7367.960.100.03
DePaulBE0.250.0860.0034.160.05-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.080.0011.94-0.00-0.06
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0866.6762.580.000.02
Seton HallBE0.250.0890.0067.380.200.03
XavierBE0.000.0872.7367.590.000.03
FordhamA100.190.0828.5727.11-0.08-0.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0837.5049.31-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0833.3346.17-0.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0860.0048.980.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.410.0850.0068.770.000.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.440.0816.6735.27-0.29-0.02
West VirginiaB120.210.0890.9170.080.170.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0838.4644.61-0.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.250.0863.6442.810.07-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0860.0061.600.000.02
HowardMEAC0.410.0830.0043.74-0.17-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0881.8282.250.000.05
RutgersB100.250.0854.5532.590.02-0.03
PittsburghACC0.000.0870.0051.780.000.00
IllinoisB100.410.0875.0065.140.210.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0657.1470.520.000.03
High PointBSth0.000.0666.6761.790.000.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0625.0035.39-0.00-0.02
WinthropBSth0.000.0625.0044.27-0.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.320.0633.3337.91-0.11-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0662.5041.790.00-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.0616.6736.63-0.00-0.02
LamarSlnd0.000.0614.2935.86-0.00-0.02
MercerSC0.000.0644.4444.02-0.00-0.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0677.7856.220.000.01
TexasB120.000.0690.9179.980.000.04
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0633.3340.63-0.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.250.0655.5635.900.03-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.000.060.008.60-0.00-0.05
JacksonvilleASun0.280.0610.0018.05-0.23-0.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.230.0630.0043.15-0.09-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.230.0633.3334.30-0.08-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0622.2229.80-0.00-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0675.0067.140.000.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0011.59-0.00-0.04
IonaMAAC0.000.0660.0069.200.000.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0666.6778.020.000.03
Stony BrookAE0.000.0633.3355.24-0.000.01
Texas TechB120.000.0690.0055.360.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0636.3648.28-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.000.0654.5552.730.000.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0654.5552.490.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0677.7865.110.000.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0642.8637.83-0.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0618.1830.76-0.00-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0633.3349.35-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.280.0645.4549.62-0.03-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0633.3328.79-0.00-0.02
KentuckySEC0.000.06100.0096.290.000.05
MissouriSEC0.250.0640.0032.26-0.05-0.02
NevadaMWC0.000.0611.1125.48-0.00-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0633.3361.74-0.000.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0650.0071.260.000.02
North FloridaASun0.510.0650.0057.820.000.01
OhioMAC0.280.0642.8637.71-0.04-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0688.8965.170.000.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.0655.5646.290.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0655.5655.710.000.01
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0082.970.000.04
AuburnSEC0.000.0550.0039.790.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0566.6758.210.000.01
CornellIvy0.440.0555.5648.710.05-0.00
FurmanSC0.490.0522.2231.81-0.27-0.02
IndianaB100.000.0581.8263.330.000.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.210.0527.2735.36-0.09-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.210.0570.0061.320.080.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0540.0049.39-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0533.3341.20-0.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.050.0034.33-0.00-0.02
Green BayHorz0.410.0575.0077.010.210.03
MarylandB100.000.0590.9168.230.000.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0342.8649.51-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.320.0371.4363.770.140.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0320.0040.93-0.00-0.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0385.7172.910.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0375.0058.760.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0355.5655.280.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0314.2929.82-0.00-0.01
TCUB120.000.03100.0067.700.000.01
MontanaBSky0.250.0325.0052.35-0.130.00
NiagaraMAAC0.250.0312.5029.51-0.19-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0027.67-0.00-0.01
ArizonaP120.000.03100.0082.630.000.02
BaylorB120.250.0390.0073.240.200.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0333.3334.04-0.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0316.6733.39-0.00-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0336.3637.85-0.00-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.03100.0078.210.000.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0014.00-0.00-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0377.7870.160.000.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.250.030.009.06-0.25-0.02
HartfordAE0.000.0350.0050.620.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0380.0076.450.000.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0390.0065.480.000.01
KansasB120.230.0390.0070.680.180.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0375.0058.160.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0333.3345.04-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.000.039.0916.15-0.00-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.250.0330.0028.65-0.10-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0344.4437.40-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0354.5559.560.000.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0333.3343.14-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0333.3341.02-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.230.0330.0039.59-0.09-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0320.0045.74-0.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.250.0318.1825.30-0.16-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.250.0320.0035.33-0.15-0.01
VMISC0.000.0333.3338.93-0.00-0.01
WashingtonP120.000.03100.0075.440.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0360.0057.890.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0028.43-0.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.0363.6463.240.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0370.0064.680.000.01
IPFWSum0.000.0350.0054.190.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0316.6740.27-0.00-0.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0350.0053.250.000.00
SamfordSC0.000.0333.3330.28-0.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0340.0041.32-0.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.000.0363.6456.430.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0015.00-0.00-0.02
UCLAP120.000.0366.6754.480.000.00
BucknellPat0.190.0340.0036.66-0.04-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.210.0350.0058.070.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.000.0350.0046.690.00-0.00
IowaB100.000.0366.6759.420.000.00
MichiganB100.000.0350.0040.450.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0366.6767.300.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0366.6744.720.00-0.00
PurdueB100.000.0366.6759.370.000.00
The CitadelSC0.210.0314.2932.16-0.15-0.01
USCP120.190.0360.0036.410.04-0.01