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Through games of Feb 11, 2016.


Charlotte

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:232.8
Current RPI:225
Expected SOS:201
Current SOS:146
Current Record:9-15
Expected Record:13-18
Current Conf Record:5-6
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-4
Current OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC RPI:255
Expected OOC SOS:180



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-15190.81.35%
15-16204.49.99%
14-17219.026.24%
13-18234.633.28%
12-19250.521.25%
11-20264.86.82%
10-21278.01.02%
9-22288.00.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Charlotte.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Elon (139.8)CAAH74-85L0%0.0
11-16East Carolina (198.1)AmerA88-74L0%0.0
11-19Furman (157.9)SCH77-68W100%0.0
11-25Syracuse (45.9)ACCN83-70L0%0.0
11-26Michigan (47.5)B10N47-102L0%0.0
11-27Washington (65.3)P12N66-71L0%0.0
12-1Davidson (71.1)A10H74-109L0%0.0
12-5Miami FL (10.7)ACCA88-60L0%0.0
12-9Campbell (323.3)BSthH70-76L0%0.0
12-19Appalachian St. (265.7)SBA66-82W100%0.0
12-22Georgetown (70.0)BEH59-62L0%0.0
12-29The Citadel (307.6)SCH111-93W100%0.0
1-2Old Dominion (140.0)CUSAA74-65L0%0.0
1-7Southern Miss (297.1)CUSAA76-82W100%0.0
1-9Louisiana Tech (120.1)CUSAA93-90L0%0.0
1-14Middle Tennessee (86.2)CUSAH72-73L0%0.0
1-16UAB (88.7)CUSAH72-74L0%0.0
1-21Marshall (126.6)CUSAH103-95W100%0.0
1-23Western Kentucky (179.7)CUSAH88-71W100%0.0
1-28FIU (242.9)CUSAA69-72W100%0.0
1-30Florida Atlantic (277.0)CUSAA82-77L0%0.0
2-3North Carolina A&T (335.2)MEACA72-92W100%0.0
2-6Old Dominion (140.0)CUSAH69-74L0%0.0
2-11Rice (298.4)CUSAH102-73W100%0.0
2-13North Texas (298.8)CUSAH0-080%9.3
2-18Marshall (126.6)CUSAA0-025%-7.4
2-20Western Kentucky (179.7)CUSAA0-034%-4.6
2-25UTSA (342.6)CUSAH0-092%15.5
2-27UTEP (221.2)CUSAH0-063%3.5
3-3Rice (298.4)CUSAA0-059%2.4
3-5North Texas (298.8)CUSAA0-060%2.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Charlotte's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Charlotte's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Charlotte.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
CharlotteCUSA26.1726.1235.2540.89-7.72-4.76
Old DominionCUSA4.543.8954.5560.640.410.83
MarshallCUSA2.453.8352.1752.040.110.16
North TexasCUSA0.463.8331.8232.65-0.17-1.33
RiceCUSA2.363.8328.5728.72-1.01-1.63
Western KentuckyCUSA2.443.8247.6247.03-0.12-0.23
Louisiana TechCUSA2.462.2871.4369.471.050.89
UABCUSA2.502.2782.6179.121.631.32
Southern MissCUSA2.452.2731.5832.98-0.90-0.77
Middle TennesseeCUSA2.492.2766.6766.540.830.75
FIUCUSA2.542.2540.9144.52-0.46-0.25
Florida AtlanticCUSA2.542.2422.7325.31-1.39-1.11
UTEPCUSA0.462.2254.1754.790.040.21
UTSACUSA0.462.2213.0413.14-0.34-1.64
The CitadelSC2.211.7031.8230.58-0.81-0.66
FurmanSC2.221.7058.3356.370.370.22
ElonCAA2.211.6947.8348.29-0.10-0.06
SyracuseACC2.211.6966.6762.890.740.44
East CarolinaAmer2.171.6739.1337.48-0.47-0.42
CampbellBSth2.131.6428.5729.36-0.91-0.68
Appalachian St.SB2.121.6426.0929.09-1.02-0.69
MichiganB102.131.6469.5765.600.830.51
GeorgetownBE2.121.6454.1751.300.180.04
Miami FLACC2.121.6481.8276.811.350.88
North Carolina A&TMEAC2.131.6430.4334.25-0.83-0.52
DavidsonA102.081.6160.0056.620.420.21
WashingtonP122.081.6160.8758.770.450.28
UT ArlingtonSB0.140.2268.1871.350.050.09
James MadisonCAA0.260.2172.0071.320.120.09
College of CharlestonCAA0.270.2060.8758.900.060.04
Georgia St.SB0.270.1955.0053.670.030.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.270.1762.5063.450.070.05
SamfordSC0.170.1740.0041.68-0.03-0.03
MercerSC0.230.1766.6767.110.080.06
UNC GreensboroSC0.220.1726.0928.41-0.10-0.07
South AlabamaSB0.190.1736.3636.29-0.05-0.05
TroySB0.140.1622.7324.38-0.08-0.08
VMISC0.180.1419.0519.67-0.11-0.09
Western CarolinaSC0.140.1431.8234.54-0.05-0.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.220.1477.2773.930.120.07
VCUA100.180.1470.8371.050.080.06
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1473.0872.610.000.06
CaliforniaP120.140.1466.6764.780.050.04
CreightonBE0.080.1464.0062.070.020.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.140.1450.0049.320.00-0.00
XavierBE0.130.1387.5081.850.100.09
TexasB120.170.1366.6762.200.060.03
North CarolinaACC0.130.1383.3378.380.090.08
Florida St.ACC0.130.1366.6763.300.040.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.130.1325.0033.23-0.07-0.04
Virginia TechACC0.130.1352.0048.920.01-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.210.1370.8370.130.090.05
PurdueB100.170.1380.0077.910.100.07
MarylandB100.130.1387.5083.660.100.09
PresbyterianBSth0.130.1223.8125.49-0.07-0.06
ChattanoogaSC0.170.1183.3383.710.120.08
DuquesneA100.150.1160.8756.270.030.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.090.1160.8760.240.020.02
WoffordSC0.090.1145.8348.12-0.01-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.150.1152.1753.440.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.180.1148.0048.60-0.01-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.130.1119.0525.90-0.08-0.05
MemphisAmer0.140.1158.3359.310.020.02
RichmondA100.140.1156.5255.820.020.01
HofstraCAA0.180.1166.6766.770.060.04
UCFAmer0.180.1150.0044.650.00-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.180.1121.7422.42-0.10-0.06
LouisvilleACC0.050.1179.1775.990.030.06
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.1125.0025.08-0.02-0.05
TulaneAmer0.140.1136.0034.84-0.04-0.03
ButlerBE0.130.1170.8369.000.060.04
PittsburghACC0.140.1172.7367.600.060.04
William & MaryCAA0.130.1168.1867.110.050.04
DukeACC0.170.1175.0071.840.090.05
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.180.1160.0062.250.040.03
Texas St.SB0.090.1140.0038.88-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.170.119.0912.26-0.14-0.08
Norfolk St.MEAC0.130.1143.4850.64-0.020.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.170.1029.1733.75-0.07-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.140.0943.4845.21-0.02-0.01
RadfordBSth0.090.0952.1754.100.000.01
LibertyBSth0.130.0834.7836.53-0.04-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.130.0838.1037.67-0.03-0.02
BelmontOVC0.090.0868.0066.640.030.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.090.0876.1972.370.040.04
StetsonASun0.130.0822.7327.39-0.07-0.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0831.8236.11-0.02-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.090.0850.0049.760.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.130.0842.3146.12-0.02-0.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0863.6458.760.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0845.0049.27-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.090.0842.8641.34-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.090.0858.3357.250.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.090.0883.3381.280.060.05
ClemsonACC0.090.0858.3358.400.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.130.0815.0018.13-0.09-0.05
UtahP120.130.0870.8368.520.060.03
Washington St.P120.040.0834.7831.64-0.01-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.090.0850.0048.130.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0850.0048.950.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.090.0870.8367.930.040.03
VirginiaACC0.090.0883.3378.460.060.05
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0829.1726.69-0.04-0.04
BuffaloMAC0.130.0856.5257.060.020.01
NiagaraMAAC0.130.0824.0024.61-0.07-0.04
SMUAmer0.090.0886.9682.920.060.05
South FloridaAmer0.040.0820.0019.73-0.03-0.05
WisconsinB100.080.0862.5057.000.020.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.090.0886.3684.220.060.05
St. John'sBE0.120.0825.0023.45-0.06-0.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0627.2727.80-0.02-0.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.090.0657.1457.670.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.090.0621.7424.60-0.05-0.03
WinthropBSth0.050.0666.6763.780.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.100.0650.0054.180.000.00
George MasonA100.050.0633.3333.63-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.050.0675.0071.960.020.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.100.0660.8759.830.020.01
DaytonA100.090.0686.9682.160.070.04
AuburnSEC0.090.0639.1335.45-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.090.0619.0520.30-0.06-0.03
ToledoMAC0.090.0660.8762.080.020.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0636.8442.88-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0647.6249.39-0.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.040.0625.0024.93-0.02-0.03
DetroitHorz0.050.0645.4543.87-0.00-0.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0620.8323.28-0.03-0.03
DrexelCAA0.040.0613.0416.42-0.03-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.090.0650.0052.870.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0663.6461.550.010.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0656.5255.340.000.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0652.9452.100.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0650.0049.480.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.050.0630.0029.13-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.0620.0022.25-0.00-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.050.0658.3360.710.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0618.1821.11-0.00-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0656.0055.450.000.01
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0652.1749.150.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.050.0682.6183.010.030.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.0650.0050.500.000.00
TowsonCAA0.040.0662.5057.730.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.050.0645.8341.63-0.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.090.0572.7370.410.040.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.090.0528.5733.30-0.04-0.02
Michigan St.B100.090.0580.0081.560.050.03
Ohio St.B100.050.0560.0055.560.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.040.0545.4554.18-0.000.00
ArizonaP120.090.0579.1778.290.050.03
Arizona St.P120.090.0554.1751.700.010.00
ColoradoP120.040.0570.8365.580.020.02
FloridaSEC0.090.0566.6766.320.030.02
IllinoisB100.090.0545.8344.07-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.040.0579.1778.880.030.03
MinnesotaB100.090.0525.0027.26-0.04-0.02
NebraskaB100.090.0552.0050.760.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0565.2268.600.000.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.090.0531.8235.12-0.03-0.02
Penn St.B100.090.0550.0046.770.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.090.0547.6245.02-0.00-0.01
UCLAP120.090.0556.5253.400.010.00
USCP120.090.0578.2673.130.050.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0514.2915.44-0.03-0.04
BryantNEC0.090.0524.0024.92-0.04-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.090.0554.1752.000.010.00
HamptonMEAC0.090.0559.0961.280.020.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0552.1754.130.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.090.0572.2275.600.040.03
Wake ForestACC0.090.0541.6739.90-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.040.0582.6181.140.030.03
Arkansas St.SB0.040.0540.9138.82-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0572.0071.570.000.02
DePaulBE0.080.0533.3334.02-0.03-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.040.0539.1341.05-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.040.0582.6181.130.030.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.090.0545.4549.05-0.01-0.00
MarquetteBE0.040.0564.0057.890.010.01
OhioMAC0.040.0563.6461.470.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.040.0572.0069.130.020.02
Seton HallBE0.040.0570.8368.080.020.02
TempleAmer0.090.0565.2262.370.030.01
TulsaAmer0.090.0566.6764.700.030.02
VillanovaBE0.040.0587.5086.850.030.04
West VirginiaB120.040.0579.1778.100.030.03
WyomingMWC0.040.0543.4842.54-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.050.0357.1459.870.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0316.6719.49-0.03-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.050.0360.8755.980.010.00
Air ForceMWC0.050.0343.4837.80-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0354.5555.550.000.00
FordhamA100.000.0352.3850.690.000.00
MassachusettsA100.050.0343.4842.40-0.01-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.050.0347.8350.89-0.000.00
Saint LouisA100.050.0334.7832.39-0.02-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0373.9174.640.020.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0368.1865.170.020.01
BinghamtonAE0.050.0324.0026.44-0.02-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0328.5734.11-0.00-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0325.0029.89-0.00-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.040.0325.0026.38-0.02-0.01
LipscombASun0.050.0328.0030.49-0.02-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0350.0051.280.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0345.8343.78-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.050.0334.7833.02-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0362.5058.940.010.00
NavyPat0.040.0364.0064.460.010.01
North FloridaASun0.050.0362.5064.120.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0360.0057.650.010.00
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0341.6742.39-0.01-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.039.0917.14-0.04-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.050.0361.9065.330.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0314.2914.91-0.00-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0333.3334.95-0.00-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.0340.0040.34-0.00-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.040.0333.3330.63-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0354.5552.530.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.040.0314.2920.64-0.03-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.040.0379.1777.510.030.01
HowardMEAC0.040.0336.3638.97-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.040.0356.0054.080.010.00
IndianaB100.040.0380.0075.690.030.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.040.0324.0024.16-0.02-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.040.0365.2260.600.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0343.4843.77-0.01-0.00
MontanaBSky0.040.0360.0062.710.010.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0364.0062.090.000.01
OaklandHorz0.040.0365.3865.510.010.01
OregonP120.000.0379.1777.200.000.01
PennIvy0.040.0338.8937.69-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.050.0372.2274.700.020.01
RutgersB100.040.0321.7420.34-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.000.0347.6244.06-0.00-0.00
TCUB120.040.0345.8339.36-0.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.040.0345.4551.69-0.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.040.0330.4332.26-0.02-0.01
BrownIvy0.040.0331.5831.01-0.02-0.01
ColgatePat0.040.0343.4844.90-0.01-0.00
CornellIvy0.040.0342.1140.24-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.040.0370.8367.980.020.01
JacksonvilleASun0.040.0347.8348.57-0.00-0.00
LehighPat0.040.0339.1342.83-0.01-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.040.0380.0081.160.020.02
Montana St.BSky0.040.0343.4844.83-0.01-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.040.0369.5770.090.020.01
Texas A&MSEC0.040.0375.0075.340.020.01