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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Charlotte

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:151.0
Current RPI:151
Expected SOS:153
Current SOS:153
Current Record:17-14
Expected Record:17-14
Current Conf Record:8-10
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-6
Current OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:101
Expected OOC SOS:172



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-14151.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Charlotte.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8East Tennessee St. (206.0)ASunH80-75W100%0.0
11-12College of Charleston (242.0)CAAA83-82L0%0.0
11-15Elon (162.0)SCH83-69W100%0.0
11-21Kansas St. (51.0)B12N61-68W100%0.0
11-22Northeastern (222.0)CAAN77-86W100%0.0
11-24Michigan (11.0)B10N61-63W100%0.0
12-1UNC Asheville (201.0)BSthH77-56W100%0.0
12-4Davidson (126.0)SCH78-87L0%0.0
12-8Appalachian St. (335.0)SCA59-77W100%0.0
12-17Florida St. (54.0)ACCA106-62L0%0.0
12-21USC Upstate (163.0)ASunH81-76W100%0.0
12-29Georgia Tech (157.0)ACCH55-58L0%0.0
1-4North Carolina A&T (336.0)MEACH88-72W100%0.0
1-9UTEP (103.0)CUSAA68-73W100%0.0
1-11UTSA (306.0)CUSAA85-77L0%0.0
1-16Tulsa (73.0)CUSAH90-86W100%0.0
1-18North Texas (195.0)CUSAH76-74W100%0.0
1-23Louisiana Tech (62.0)CUSAA80-60L0%0.0
1-25Rice (299.0)CUSAA71-69L0%0.0
1-30Florida Atlantic (270.0)CUSAH62-53W100%0.0
2-1FIU (202.0)CUSAH73-61W100%0.0
2-7Tulane (223.0)CUSAA64-63L0%0.0
2-9Southern Miss (33.0)CUSAA81-64L0%0.0
2-15Marshall (276.0)CUSAH56-59L0%0.0
2-20Middle Tennessee (64.0)CUSAH49-71L0%0.0
2-22UAB (152.0)CUSAH62-64L0%0.0
2-27East Carolina (216.0)CUSAA75-68L0%0.0
3-2Old Dominion (170.0)CUSAH74-63W100%0.0
3-6Marshall (276.0)CUSAA70-74W100%0.0
3-12UAB (152.0)CUSAN70-80W100%0.0
3-13Louisiana Tech (62.0)CUSAN86-65L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Charlotte's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Charlotte's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Charlotte.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
CharlotteCUSA25.9825.9852.5952.591.351.35
Louisiana TechCUSA3.733.7377.4277.422.052.05
MarshallCUSA3.733.7327.5927.59-1.67-1.67
UABCUSA3.703.7055.5655.560.410.41
Old DominionCUSA2.202.2050.0050.000.000.00
East CarolinaCUSA2.202.2042.8642.86-0.31-0.31
TulaneCUSA2.192.1948.3948.39-0.07-0.07
TulsaCUSA2.192.1965.6265.620.690.69
Florida AtlanticCUSA2.172.1727.5927.59-0.97-0.97
Middle TennesseeCUSA2.172.1770.0070.000.870.87
Southern MissCUSA2.172.1780.0080.001.301.30
UTEPCUSA2.152.1570.0070.000.860.86
North TexasCUSA2.142.1446.4346.43-0.15-0.15
RiceCUSA2.142.1414.8114.81-1.51-1.51
UTSACUSA2.122.1219.2319.23-1.30-1.30
FIUCUSA2.092.0948.1548.15-0.08-0.08
NortheasternCAA1.771.7735.4835.48-0.51-0.51
ElonSC1.751.7557.1457.140.250.25
College of CharlestonCAA1.741.7440.0040.00-0.35-0.35
East Tennessee St.ASun1.741.7454.8454.840.170.17
DavidsonSC1.731.7360.0060.000.350.35
Appalachian St.SC1.691.6920.0020.00-1.02-1.02
UNC AshevilleBSth1.691.6950.0050.000.000.00
USC UpstateASun1.691.6956.6756.670.230.23
Georgia TechACC1.691.6946.8846.88-0.11-0.11
Florida St.ACC1.691.6958.0658.060.270.27
North Carolina A&TMEAC1.671.6726.6726.67-0.78-0.78
Kansas St.B121.641.6464.5264.520.480.48
MichiganB101.641.6478.1278.120.920.92
Western CarolinaSC0.250.2551.6151.610.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.250.2537.9337.93-0.06-0.06
Georgia SouthernSC0.240.2438.7138.71-0.06-0.06
DukeACC0.230.2376.4776.470.120.12
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.230.2323.3323.33-0.13-0.13
SamfordSC0.230.2333.3333.33-0.08-0.08
DrexelCAA0.210.2153.3353.330.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.190.1913.3313.33-0.14-0.14
StetsonASun0.180.1822.5822.58-0.10-0.10
ChattanoogaSC0.170.1751.7251.720.010.01
The CitadelSC0.170.1713.7913.79-0.12-0.12
WinthropBSth0.170.1756.6756.670.020.02
Georgia St.SB0.160.1674.1974.190.080.08
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.160.1662.5062.500.040.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.160.1613.7913.79-0.11-0.11
JacksonvilleASun0.150.1535.7135.71-0.04-0.04
North FloridaASun0.150.1546.6746.67-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
OklahomaB120.150.1571.8871.880.070.07
MarylandACC0.150.1551.6151.610.000.00
ClemsonACC0.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
FurmanSC0.140.1425.9325.93-0.07-0.07
Florida A&MMEAC0.140.1440.0040.00-0.03-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
South Carolina St.MEAC0.130.1325.0025.00-0.06-0.06
MercerASun0.130.1374.1974.190.060.06
DelawareCAA0.130.1373.5373.530.060.06
HofstraCAA0.130.1330.3030.30-0.05-0.05
LipscombASun0.130.1348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.130.1330.0030.00-0.05-0.05
West VirginiaB120.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
VirginiaACC0.130.1382.3582.350.080.08
Boston CollegeACC0.130.1322.5822.58-0.07-0.07
WoffordSC0.110.1158.6258.620.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.110.1161.7661.760.030.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.110.1183.8783.870.070.07
GeorgetownBE0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.110.1141.1841.18-0.02-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.110.1193.1093.100.090.09
NebraskaB100.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
Western KentuckySB0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.100.1014.2914.29-0.07-0.07
HowardMEAC0.100.1019.3519.35-0.06-0.06
James MadisonCAA0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
TowsonCAA0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.100.1024.0024.00-0.05-0.05
MississippiSEC0.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
Iowa St.B120.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
Oklahoma St.B120.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
TCUB120.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
CampbellBSth0.090.0932.1432.14-0.03-0.03
VMIBSth0.080.0855.5655.560.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
New MexicoMWC0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
RadfordBSth0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
HarvardIvy0.080.0886.2186.210.060.06
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0816.6716.67-0.05-0.05
LouisvilleAmer0.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
South AlabamaSB0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
TroySB0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Texas TechB120.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.080.0814.8114.81-0.06-0.06
TexasB120.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
AkronMAC0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.080.0872.7372.730.030.03
Virginia TechACC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
IowaB100.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.070.0748.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Wake ForestACC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
MinnesotaB100.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Notre DameACC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
Michigan St.B100.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
HoustonAmer0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0646.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0630.7730.77-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
LSUSEC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
RutgersAmer0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
MaristMAAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
DePaulBE0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0521.2121.21-0.03-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
FloridaSEC0.050.0594.1294.120.050.05
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
NJITind0.050.0536.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0546.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.050.0559.2659.260.010.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
Wichita St.MVC0.050.05100.00100.000.050.05
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Oral RobertsSlnd0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
RichmondA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
UICHorz0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
IndianaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0534.6234.62-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
PurdueB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
WisconsinB100.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
DuquesneA100.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.030.0370.3770.370.010.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
ColoradoP120.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
High PointBSth0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
IdahoWAC0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
PortlandWCC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
ToledoMAC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
Arizona St.P120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
MaineAE0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0378.5778.570.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Washington St.P120.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
South DakotaSum0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.030.0320.6920.69-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
WashingtonP120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
ArizonaP120.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
CreightonBE0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
DaytonA100.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
George MasonA100.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.020.0277.7877.780.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
StanfordP120.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01