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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Charlotte

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:240.0
Current RPI:240
Expected SOS:223
Current SOS:223
Current Record:12-17
Expected Record:12-17
Current Conf Record:7-12
Expected Conf Record:7-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-6
Current OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC RPI:199
Expected OOC SOS:202



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-17240.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Charlotte.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Elon (161.0)CAAA95-100W100%0.0
11-17East Carolina (213.0)AmerH76-64W100%0.0
11-22USC Upstate (229.0)ASunH103-108L0%0.0
11-26Davidson (93.0)A10A79-57L0%0.0
11-28Appalachian St. (301.0)SBH80-72W100%0.0
11-30James Madison (255.0)CAAH65-56W100%0.0
12-3Oregon St. (280.0)P12H69-66W100%0.0
12-6Wake Forest (38.0)ACCA91-74L0%0.0
12-17Florida (10.0)SECN87-46L0%0.0
12-20Maryland (36.0)B10N88-72L0%0.0
12-31North Texas (339.0)CUSAH101-76W100%0.0
1-2Rice (167.0)CUSAH70-89L0%0.0
1-5Western Kentucky (226.0)CUSAA82-80L0%0.0
1-7Marshall (112.0)CUSAA110-93L0%0.0
1-12Louisiana Tech (116.0)CUSAH73-79L0%0.0
1-14Southern Miss (331.0)CUSAH82-66W100%0.0
1-21Old Dominion (138.0)CUSAH74-72W100%0.0
1-26North Texas (339.0)CUSAA81-82W100%0.0
1-28Rice (167.0)CUSAA84-67L0%0.0
2-2Florida Atlantic (281.0)CUSAH75-77L0%0.0
2-4FIU (338.0)CUSAH95-80W100%0.0
2-9UAB (201.0)CUSAA82-69L0%0.0
2-11Middle Tennessee (34.0)CUSAA70-55L0%0.0
2-18Old Dominion (138.0)CUSAA72-48L0%0.0
2-23Western Kentucky (226.0)CUSAH83-77W100%0.0
2-25Marshall (112.0)CUSAH89-93L0%0.0
3-2UTSA (264.0)CUSAA75-76W100%0.0
3-4UTEP (222.0)CUSAA74-67L0%0.0
3-8UAB (201.0)CUSAA74-73L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Charlotte's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Charlotte's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Charlotte.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
CharlotteCUSA26.1426.1439.0239.02-5.74-5.74
MarshallCUSA4.264.2653.1253.120.270.27
Old DominionCUSA4.224.2262.0762.071.021.02
RiceCUSA4.184.1862.0762.071.011.01
UABCUSA4.144.1446.6746.67-0.28-0.28
Western KentuckyCUSA4.144.1446.6746.67-0.28-0.28
North TexasCUSA4.094.0923.0823.08-2.20-2.20
Middle TennesseeCUSA2.552.5587.5087.501.921.92
Louisiana TechCUSA2.532.5366.6766.670.840.84
UTEPCUSA2.482.4843.3343.33-0.33-0.33
Southern MissCUSA2.482.4825.0025.00-1.24-1.24
UTSACUSA2.482.4840.0040.00-0.50-0.50
Florida AtlanticCUSA2.442.4425.9325.93-1.18-1.18
FIUCUSA2.422.4217.8617.86-1.56-1.56
James MadisonCAA1.921.9229.0329.03-0.81-0.81
ElonCAA1.811.8155.1755.170.190.19
Appalachian St.SB1.781.7825.9325.93-0.86-0.86
DavidsonA101.751.7551.6151.610.060.06
Oregon St.P121.751.7513.3313.33-1.28-1.28
Wake ForestACC1.751.7558.0658.060.280.28
East CarolinaAmer1.721.7246.8846.88-0.11-0.11
FloridaSEC1.721.7274.1974.190.830.83
MarylandB101.721.7273.3373.330.800.80
USC UpstateASun1.721.7244.4444.44-0.19-0.19
College of CharlestonCAA0.250.2572.7372.730.110.11
DrexelCAA0.200.2025.8125.81-0.10-0.10
William & MaryCAA0.200.2051.7251.720.010.01
TowsonCAA0.190.1959.3859.380.040.04
RichmondA100.190.1962.5062.500.050.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.180.1876.6776.670.090.09
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.160.1684.3884.380.110.11
PittsburghACC0.160.1648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
Georgia St.SB0.140.1460.0060.000.030.03
HofstraCAA0.140.1445.1645.16-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.140.1477.1477.140.080.08
LSUSEC0.140.1432.2632.26-0.05-0.05
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.140.1451.7251.720.000.00
Ohio St.B100.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.140.1472.7372.730.060.06
VCUA100.140.1476.4776.470.070.07
UT ArlingtonSB0.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
Texas St.SB0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
HartfordAE0.120.1228.1228.12-0.05-0.05
JacksonvilleASun0.120.1246.4346.43-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.120.1236.6736.67-0.03-0.03
StetsonASun0.120.1227.5927.59-0.05-0.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.120.1226.6726.67-0.05-0.05
RutgersB100.120.1243.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.120.1258.8258.820.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
AuburnSEC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
DelawareCAA0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
George WashingtonA100.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
MissouriSEC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Saint Mary'sWCC0.110.1187.5087.500.080.08
BelmontOVC0.110.1177.7877.780.060.06
VanderbiltSEC0.110.1155.8855.880.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
OhioMAC0.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
ToledoMAC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Little RockSB0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
Miami FLACC0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.086.906.90-0.07-0.07
Florida St.ACC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
HowardMEAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.080.0836.0036.00-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
Montana St.BSky0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
TulaneAmer0.080.0819.3519.35-0.05-0.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
WashingtonP120.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0828.1228.12-0.04-0.04
ClemsonACC0.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
KansasB120.080.0887.5087.500.060.06
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
MercerSC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.083.333.33-0.07-0.07
SMUAmer0.080.0888.2488.240.060.06
TempleAmer0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0885.2985.290.050.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0873.3373.330.040.04
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
LipscombASun0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0630.3030.30-0.02-0.02
NJITASun0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0670.0070.000.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0610.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Cal PolyBW0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
RadfordBSth0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
IllinoisB100.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0632.0032.00-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
LamarSlnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
NebraskaB100.060.0636.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
OregonP120.060.0684.8584.850.040.04
St. John'sBE0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.060.0687.8887.880.040.04
USCP120.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
UtahP120.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0573.5373.530.030.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
DetroitHorz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
FordhamA100.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
George MasonA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
La SalleA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
SouthernSWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
TexasB120.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UNLVMWC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
MississippiSEC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
UCFAmer0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
AkronMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
The CitadelSC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
AmericanPat0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
IndianaB100.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Kansas St.B120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.030.0368.5768.570.010.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
NevadaMWC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
New MexicoMWC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Penn St.B100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Washington St.P120.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
BucknellPat0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
DuquesneA100.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.030.0396.9796.970.030.03
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
OklahomaB120.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
UMBCAE0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
VillanovaBE0.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
XavierBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00