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Through games of Nov 22, 2014.


Samford

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:323.1
Current RPI:262
Expected SOS:336
Current SOS:205
Current Record:1-3
Expected Record:9-20
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-11
Current OOC Record:1-3
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:333
Expected OOC SOS:333



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-11193.00.01%
17-12209.00.01%
16-13220.40.12%
15-14240.70.71%
14-15259.41.76%
13-16278.64.33%
12-17294.37.95%
11-18308.912.97%
10-19321.317.28%
9-20330.618.43%
8-21338.016.05%
7-22343.011.06%
6-23346.75.80%
5-24348.62.53%
4-25349.80.78%
3-26350.80.18%
2-27351.00.01%
1-28351.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Samford.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Purdue (64.5)B10A80-40L0%0.0
11-16Pittsburgh (105.0)ACCA63-56L0%0.0
11-19Austin Peay (306.5)OVCH68-67W100%0.0
11-22Cal St. Northridge (211.5)BWN79-72L0%0.0
11-26Kennesaw St. (321.5)ASunA0-041%-2.8
11-28Louisiana Tech (69.9)CUSAA0-03%-22.5
12-1Jacksonville (333.3)ASunH0-066%4.8
12-4VMI (274.1)SCH0-048%-0.6
12-6Furman (317.4)SCA0-042%-2.5
12-14Wake Forest (143.5)ACCA0-06%-18.6
12-16Presbyterian (312.5)BSthA0-040%-3.0
12-21Louisiana Monroe (121.0)SBH0-021%-9.6
12-28Campbell (292.6)BSthH0-055%1.4
1-3Wofford (73.7)SCH0-012%-13.8
1-5East Tennessee St. (193.8)SCH0-034%-5.1
1-8The Citadel (328.2)SCA0-038%-3.7
1-10Wofford (73.7)SCA0-04%-21.0
1-15Chattanooga (254.5)SCH0-041%-2.8
1-17Mercer (227.2)SCA0-017%-11.5
1-22UNC Greensboro (317.2)SCH0-054%1.2
1-24Western Carolina (219.4)SCH0-034%-5.1
1-31Furman (317.4)SCH0-065%4.7
2-5Western Carolina (219.4)SCA0-015%-12.3
2-7East Tennessee St. (193.8)SCA0-015%-12.3
2-12The Citadel (328.2)SCH0-061%3.5
2-14Chattanooga (254.5)SCA0-020%-10.0
2-21Mercer (227.2)SCH0-036%-4.3
2-26UNC Greensboro (317.2)SCA0-031%-6.0
2-28VMI (274.1)SCA0-026%-7.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Samford's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Samford's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Samford.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
SamfordSC32.8126.4621.4331.02-18.75-10.05
VMISC0.004.5133.3337.36-0.00-1.14
The CitadelSC0.004.510.0026.23-0.00-2.14
WoffordSC0.004.4975.0073.900.002.15
UNC GreensboroSC0.004.480.0030.80-0.00-1.72
ChattanoogaSC0.004.480.0044.85-0.00-0.46
MercerSC0.004.4850.0050.560.000.05
Western CarolinaSC0.004.460.0047.28-0.00-0.24
East Tennessee St.SC0.004.4550.0050.430.000.04
FurmanSC0.004.4533.3323.47-0.00-2.36
PresbyterianBSth0.001.940.0023.42-0.00-1.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.001.9120.0025.74-0.00-0.93
CampbellBSth0.001.790.0029.63-0.00-0.73
JacksonvilleASun0.001.780.0024.68-0.00-0.90
Louisiana TechCUSA0.001.7675.0070.210.000.71
Wake ForestACC0.001.7550.0039.880.00-0.35
PittsburghACC12.501.7550.0049.040.00-0.03
Austin PeayOVC12.501.720.0032.43-12.50-0.61
Cal St. NorthridgeBW12.501.7233.3342.18-4.17-0.27
Louisiana MonroeSB0.001.7250.0061.930.000.41
PurdueB1012.501.72100.0059.1412.500.32
LipscombASun0.000.250.0042.80-0.00-0.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.2433.3345.63-0.00-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.2450.0054.970.000.02
DukeACC0.000.24100.0086.130.000.17
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.23100.0059.190.000.04
Virginia TechACC0.000.2266.6733.180.00-0.07
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.2266.6768.980.000.08
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.21100.0072.860.000.10
MinnesotaB100.000.2166.6761.350.000.05
LibertyBSth0.000.1933.3335.41-0.00-0.06
WinthropBSth0.000.1950.0060.360.000.04
High PointBSth0.000.1975.0055.790.000.02
North FloridaASun0.000.180.0047.13-0.00-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.1833.3340.99-0.00-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.000.1633.3321.74-0.00-0.09
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.160.0037.13-0.00-0.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1625.0056.39-0.000.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.160.0063.56-0.000.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1650.0037.760.00-0.04
Morehead St.OVC0.000.1625.0059.16-0.000.03
LongwoodBSth0.000.1633.3322.74-0.00-0.09
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1666.6748.790.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.1533.3346.79-0.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.150.0043.18-0.00-0.02
IndianaB100.000.15100.0062.040.000.04
SyracuseACC0.000.1575.0068.160.000.05
NavyPat0.000.130.0032.62-0.00-0.05
TennesseeSEC0.000.1350.0042.680.00-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.130.0057.63-0.000.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1366.6758.190.000.02
UC DavisBW0.000.12100.0042.650.00-0.02
West VirginiaB120.000.12100.0067.570.000.04
IllinoisB102.080.12100.0067.102.080.04
StetsonASun0.000.120.0032.07-0.00-0.04
USC UpstateASun0.000.12100.0051.050.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.12100.0073.290.000.06
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.1250.0045.600.00-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.12100.0078.630.000.07
TroySB0.000.100.0045.18-0.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.100.0042.47-0.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.000.1066.6771.600.000.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.10100.0064.090.000.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1050.0033.700.00-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.100.0047.90-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.000.0933.3348.73-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.090.0033.98-0.00-0.03
MarylandB100.000.09100.0064.500.000.03
RiceCUSA0.000.0933.3327.11-0.00-0.04
FloridaSEC0.000.0966.6767.200.000.03
ButlerBE0.000.09100.0061.850.000.02
ElonCAA0.000.0933.3341.21-0.00-0.02
WisconsinB100.000.09100.0084.890.000.06
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0925.0035.61-0.00-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.09100.0045.350.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.09100.0071.340.000.04
HawaiiBW2.080.0975.0054.791.040.01
OaklandHorz0.000.090.0032.48-0.00-0.03
South DakotaSum0.000.090.0042.57-0.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.09100.0047.840.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0950.0041.480.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0966.6766.670.000.03
Notre DameACC0.000.09100.0074.620.000.04
Georgia TechACC0.000.09100.0053.080.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.09100.0075.720.000.04
Air ForceMWC0.000.0750.0045.890.00-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0750.0053.000.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.070.0046.56-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.070.0039.36-0.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0766.6748.850.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0775.0057.060.000.01
ArmyPat0.000.06100.0066.100.000.02
Colorado St.MWC0.000.06100.0062.400.000.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.060.0035.64-0.00-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.060.0033.25-0.00-0.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0666.6776.510.000.03
MaristMAAC0.000.060.0034.55-0.00-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.0650.0071.840.000.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.060.0072.02-0.000.03
Seton HallBE0.000.06100.0056.980.000.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0633.3341.92-0.00-0.01
TCUB120.000.06100.0054.550.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0666.6765.320.000.02
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0666.6754.020.000.01
VCUA100.000.06100.0073.570.000.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.060.0031.61-0.00-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.060.0053.00-0.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.060.0028.50-0.00-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.000.060.0033.55-0.00-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0049.250.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0625.0041.91-0.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.0650.0054.620.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA2.080.0633.3341.77-0.69-0.01
IPFWSum0.000.0650.0063.720.000.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.060.0034.98-0.00-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0633.3336.99-0.00-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.06100.0058.780.000.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0650.0037.760.00-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0633.3335.92-0.00-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0025.43-0.00-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0633.3346.93-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0625.0031.12-0.00-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0633.3353.79-0.000.00
RutgersB100.000.0650.0037.560.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0666.6767.990.000.02
StanfordP120.000.0675.0071.090.000.03
UC IrvineBW0.000.0650.0063.070.000.02
UC RiversideBW0.000.060.0028.19-0.00-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.060.0055.87-0.000.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0666.6744.970.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0666.6758.650.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0633.3344.56-0.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.06100.0043.160.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0650.0051.120.000.00
Miami FLACC0.000.06100.0073.530.000.03
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0650.0053.430.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.06100.0069.180.000.02
UTSACUSA0.000.0650.0037.430.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.060.0034.81-0.00-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.000.0375.0059.530.000.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0366.6773.760.000.02
BrownIvy0.000.0325.0037.31-0.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0366.6752.030.000.00
MississippiSEC0.000.0366.6755.980.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0325.0049.94-0.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.000.0333.3341.16-0.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0350.0053.040.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0018.27-0.00-0.02
HofstraCAA0.000.0366.6762.810.000.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0366.6746.540.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0350.0037.890.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.03100.0046.040.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0031.92-0.00-0.01
ArizonaP121.560.03100.0069.321.560.01
BryantNEC0.000.0350.0054.900.000.00
CaliforniaP120.000.0375.0069.830.000.01
DuquesneA100.000.03100.0052.610.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC2.080.030.0025.50-2.08-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.03100.0063.360.000.01
IowaB100.000.0350.0065.570.000.01
IUPUISum2.080.0350.0031.810.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0366.6754.240.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.03100.0070.980.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0333.3357.45-0.000.00
MichiganB100.000.03100.0064.370.000.01
Montana St.BSky1.560.030.0023.51-1.56-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.030.0040.40-0.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.0366.6752.320.000.00
NiagaraMAAC2.080.0333.3324.07-0.69-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0350.0044.810.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.000.03100.0042.120.00-0.00
OregonP120.000.03100.0071.440.000.01
Penn St.B100.000.0375.0047.170.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.03100.0050.830.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.000.03100.0050.420.000.00
San Diego St.MWC1.560.03100.0080.631.560.02
SeattleWAC0.000.0333.3349.04-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0366.6752.550.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.030.0067.09-0.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.030.0050.76-0.000.00
UMBCAE0.000.030.0036.19-0.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.03100.0070.030.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0366.6751.200.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.03100.0045.790.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.03100.0080.090.000.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0038.72-0.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.000.0350.0053.100.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.03100.0073.660.000.01
BucknellPat0.000.0325.0035.71-0.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0333.3336.55-0.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0325.0040.91-0.00-0.01
RichmondA100.000.0366.6767.450.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0350.0035.040.00-0.01