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Through games of Nov 24, 2014.


Samford

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:287.2
Current RPI:257
Expected SOS:320
Current SOS:263
Current Record:2-3
Expected Record:12-18
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-8
Current OOC Record:2-3
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:280
Expected OOC SOS:312



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-9121.00.01%
20-10137.50.02%
19-11169.20.10%
18-12182.50.34%
17-13199.51.07%
16-14216.13.27%
15-15236.86.54%
14-16255.111.04%
13-17272.615.82%
12-18289.618.17%
11-19303.516.61%
10-20316.213.34%
9-21326.37.74%
8-22334.24.00%
7-23340.21.46%
6-24344.10.36%
5-25345.80.09%
3-27351.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Samford.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Purdue (61.4)B10A80-40L0%0.0
11-16Pittsburgh (105.2)ACCA63-56L0%0.0
11-19Austin Peay (298.2)OVCH68-67W100%0.0
11-22Cal St. Northridge (205.8)BWN79-72L0%0.0
11-23UMKC (230.0)WACN55-64W100%0.0
11-26Kennesaw St. (323.5)ASunA0-050%0.0
11-28Louisiana Tech (72.0)CUSAA0-05%-19.7
12-1Jacksonville (332.3)ASunH0-074%7.7
12-4VMI (272.1)SCH0-058%2.4
12-6Furman (314.2)SCA0-051%0.2
12-14Wake Forest (119.6)ACCA0-07%-17.8
12-16Presbyterian (321.4)BSthA0-054%1.2
12-21Louisiana Monroe (116.3)SBH0-028%-7.0
12-28Campbell (294.0)BSthH0-064%4.4
1-3Wofford (59.7)SCH0-015%-12.2
1-5East Tennessee St. (158.0)SCH0-037%-4.0
1-8The Citadel (326.4)SCA0-047%-0.8
1-10Wofford (59.7)SCA0-05%-19.4
1-15Chattanooga (240.3)SCH0-048%-0.7
1-17Mercer (207.1)SCA0-021%-9.7
1-22UNC Greensboro (323.8)SCH0-066%4.9
1-24Western Carolina (177.3)SCH0-036%-4.2
1-31Furman (314.2)SCH0-073%7.4
2-5Western Carolina (177.3)SCA0-017%-11.4
2-7East Tennessee St. (158.0)SCA0-018%-11.2
2-12The Citadel (326.4)SCH0-070%6.3
2-14Chattanooga (240.3)SCA0-026%-7.9
2-21Mercer (207.1)SCH0-042%-2.5
2-26UNC Greensboro (323.8)SCA0-042%-2.3
2-28VMI (272.1)SCA0-035%-4.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Samford's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Samford's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Samford.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
SamfordSC31.4226.4442.1139.78-4.96-5.41
VMISC0.004.3633.3335.71-0.00-1.25
The CitadelSC0.004.360.0025.41-0.00-2.14
WoffordSC0.004.3480.0076.030.002.26
UNC GreensboroSC0.004.340.0026.75-0.00-2.02
ChattanoogaSC0.004.330.0045.62-0.00-0.38
MercerSC0.004.3333.3351.47-0.000.13
Western CarolinaSC0.004.3133.3353.27-0.000.28
East Tennessee St.SC0.004.3066.6756.760.000.58
FurmanSC0.004.3033.3322.85-0.00-2.33
PresbyterianBSth0.001.870.0021.81-0.00-1.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.001.8520.0024.93-0.00-0.93
CampbellBSth0.001.730.0031.27-0.00-0.65
JacksonvilleASun0.001.720.0023.53-0.00-0.91
Louisiana TechCUSA0.001.7080.0071.240.000.72
Wake ForestACC0.001.7060.0043.940.00-0.21
PittsburghACC10.001.6950.0049.840.00-0.01
Austin PeayOVC10.001.670.0034.54-10.00-0.52
Cal St. NorthridgeBW10.001.6725.0041.77-5.00-0.27
Louisiana MonroeSB0.001.6750.0062.430.000.41
PurdueB1010.001.6766.6760.923.330.36
UMKCWAC10.001.6733.3348.05-3.33-0.07
LipscombASun0.000.240.0043.29-0.00-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.2433.3349.79-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.2450.0055.640.000.03
DukeACC0.000.23100.0085.500.000.17
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.23100.0060.870.000.05
Virginia TechACC0.000.2166.6733.810.00-0.07
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.2140.0059.10-0.000.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.21100.0074.040.000.10
MinnesotaB100.000.2066.6762.260.000.05
LibertyBSth0.000.1833.3335.09-0.00-0.05
WinthropBSth0.000.1833.3354.48-0.000.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1866.6745.370.00-0.02
High PointBSth0.000.1875.0055.840.000.02
North FloridaASun0.000.180.0044.98-0.00-0.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.1833.3339.78-0.00-0.04
Appalachian St.SB0.000.1650.0026.270.00-0.07
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.1625.0039.30-0.00-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1640.0053.80-0.000.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.150.0066.25-0.000.05
Morehead St.OVC0.000.1520.0053.69-0.000.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.1525.0020.27-0.00-0.09
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1566.6747.180.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.1525.0042.98-0.00-0.02
UABCUSA0.000.1533.3342.50-0.00-0.02
IndianaB100.000.1580.0057.960.000.02
USC UpstateASun0.000.1566.6753.640.000.01
SyracuseACC0.000.1475.0065.950.000.04
NavyPat0.000.1320.0033.06-0.00-0.04
TennesseeSEC0.000.1250.0041.580.00-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.1233.3363.19-0.000.03
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1275.0056.780.000.02
Arkansas Little RockSB2.250.1266.6750.930.750.00
West VirginiaB120.000.12100.0070.420.000.05
UC DavisBW0.000.12100.0043.480.00-0.02
IllinoisB101.250.12100.0065.881.250.04
StetsonASun0.000.120.0033.27-0.00-0.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.1240.0038.36-0.00-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.000.12100.0070.800.000.05
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.1250.0045.420.00-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.110.0022.57-0.00-0.06
LouisvilleACC0.000.11100.0081.370.000.07
TroySB0.000.090.0044.74-0.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.090.0040.87-0.00-0.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0975.0073.300.000.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.09100.0060.950.000.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0950.0032.210.00-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.090.0039.88-0.00-0.02
RadfordBSth0.000.0933.3350.07-0.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.090.0032.95-0.00-0.03
MarylandB100.000.09100.0066.670.000.03
RiceCUSA0.000.0933.3327.72-0.00-0.04
FloridaSEC0.000.0966.6768.660.000.03
ButlerBE0.000.09100.0059.940.000.02
ElonCAA0.000.0933.3341.47-0.00-0.02
WisconsinB100.000.09100.0084.620.000.06
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.09100.0047.400.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.000.09100.0073.810.000.04
OaklandHorz0.000.090.0029.78-0.00-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.000.09100.0050.840.000.00
SeattleWAC0.000.0925.0044.61-0.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.090.0036.85-0.00-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0840.0038.53-0.00-0.02
IonaMAAC0.000.0875.0073.930.000.04
Notre DameACC0.000.0880.0072.950.000.04
HawaiiBW1.670.0860.0050.930.330.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.08100.0051.910.000.00
VirginiaACC0.000.08100.0074.230.000.04
Air ForceMWC0.000.0650.0045.710.00-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0650.0050.520.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0039.32-0.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0666.6748.390.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0675.0056.390.000.01
ArmyPat0.000.06100.0066.400.000.02
Colorado St.MWC0.000.06100.0064.710.000.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.060.0034.81-0.00-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.060.0037.06-0.00-0.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0666.6774.460.000.03
MaristMAAC0.000.060.0033.80-0.00-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.0633.3368.63-0.000.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.060.0069.16-0.000.02
Seton HallBE0.000.06100.0065.090.000.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0633.3343.01-0.00-0.01
TCUB120.000.06100.0057.580.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0675.0069.180.000.02
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0675.0055.490.000.01
VCUA100.000.0675.0067.590.000.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.060.0033.20-0.00-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.060.0053.97-0.000.00
Indiana St.MVC1.250.0675.0047.380.62-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.060.0027.43-0.00-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.000.060.0031.81-0.00-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0050.790.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0625.0042.83-0.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.0660.0057.920.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA1.250.0633.3343.21-0.42-0.01
IPFWSum0.000.0666.6760.760.000.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.060.0036.18-0.00-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0625.0040.65-0.00-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0675.0058.190.000.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0620.0035.87-0.00-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0633.3346.01-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0640.0033.57-0.00-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0650.0050.880.000.00
Kansas St.B122.500.0675.0057.781.250.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0640.0066.65-0.000.02
RutgersB100.000.0666.6735.400.00-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0064.210.000.02
StanfordP120.000.0675.0069.760.000.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.06100.0031.710.00-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0666.6749.970.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0666.6746.440.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.0666.6757.340.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0633.3344.26-0.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0650.0043.570.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0660.0051.710.000.00
Miami FLACC0.000.06100.0078.600.000.03
Cal PolyBW0.000.0650.0034.540.00-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0633.3334.36-0.00-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0625.0052.91-0.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0650.0054.250.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.000.0633.3367.83-0.000.02
UC RiversideBW0.000.060.0029.28-0.00-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.060.0055.80-0.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.06100.0070.270.000.02
UTSACUSA0.000.0650.0037.390.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.050.0029.60-0.00-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.000.0360.0056.230.000.00
BelmontOVC0.000.0375.0071.990.000.01
BrownIvy0.000.0320.0037.46-0.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0375.0055.660.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0340.0050.60-0.000.00
ColgatePat0.000.0325.0038.68-0.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0350.0053.850.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0021.49-0.00-0.02
HofstraCAA0.000.0375.0066.800.000.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0375.0047.460.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0333.3330.55-0.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0366.6751.260.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0031.92-0.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.0350.0054.140.000.00
CaliforniaP120.000.0375.0068.180.000.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0366.6756.820.000.00
DuquesneA100.000.03100.0054.620.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC1.250.030.0020.03-1.25-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.000.03100.0064.010.000.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.03100.0051.650.000.00
IowaB100.000.0360.0064.030.000.01
Iowa St.B120.000.03100.0067.390.000.01
IUPUISum1.250.0350.0034.020.00-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0375.0066.130.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0325.0052.27-0.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0366.6732.480.00-0.01
MichiganB100.000.03100.0070.020.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0325.0035.54-0.00-0.01
MissouriSEC1.250.0350.0043.080.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.000.0366.6752.810.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0366.6746.410.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC1.670.0333.3324.20-0.56-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0350.0043.250.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.000.03100.0041.460.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.000.0380.0043.930.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0333.3350.01-0.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0366.6753.410.000.00
UMBCAE0.000.030.0038.08-0.00-0.01
ArizonaP121.000.03100.0074.961.000.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0375.0065.610.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0366.6751.200.000.00
Montana St.BSky1.000.030.0021.27-1.00-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.030.0041.06-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0366.6738.720.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0380.0074.980.000.01
OregonP120.000.0375.0068.720.000.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.0366.6756.000.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.000.03100.0049.160.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC1.000.03100.0084.911.000.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0039.51-0.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.030.0065.66-0.000.01
TempleAmer0.000.0350.0052.920.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0350.0063.110.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.03100.0074.590.000.01
BucknellPat0.000.0320.0035.82-0.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0333.3340.10-0.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0325.0040.14-0.00-0.01
RichmondA100.000.0366.6766.030.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0350.0035.290.00-0.01