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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.

Samford

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:291.0
Current RPI:291
Expected SOS:275
Current SOS:275
Current Record:10-21
Expected Record:10-21
Current Conf Record:9-10
Expected Conf Record:9-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-10
Current OOC Record:1-11
Expected OOC Record:1-11
Expected OOC RPI:293
Expected OOC SOS:121


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-21291.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Samford.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Austin Peay (319.0)OVCA75-64L0%0.0
11-15Louisville (3.0)BEA80-54L0%0.0
11-17Memphis (12.0)CUSAA65-54L0%0.0
11-21Toledo (193.0)MACN82-69L0%0.0
11-22Alcorn St. (311.0)SWACN69-65L0%0.0
11-24Texas Arlington (119.0)WACH58-65L0%0.0
11-28Florida Gulf Coast (94.0)ASunH62-86L0%0.0
12-1Georgia Southern (266.0)SCH57-48W100%0.0
12-4Kentucky (56.0)SECA88-56L0%0.0
12-8Bowling Green (274.0)MACA57-42L0%0.0
12-15Sam Houston St. (224.0)SlndH57-73L0%0.0
12-19Tennessee Martin (312.0)OVCA62-75W100%0.0
12-29Wisconsin (32.0)B10A87-51L0%0.0
1-5Chattanooga (292.0)SCH70-74L0%0.0
1-10College of Charleston (133.0)SCA57-62W100%0.0
1-12The Citadel (330.0)SCA65-69W100%0.0
1-17Western Carolina (243.0)SCH64-60W100%0.0
1-19Appalachian St. (265.0)SCH72-68W100%0.0
1-24NC Greensboro (327.0)SCA66-64L0%0.0
1-31Davidson (61.0)SCA71-51L0%0.0
2-2Elon (174.0)SCA77-66L0%0.0
2-7College of Charleston (133.0)SCH65-69L0%0.0
2-9The Citadel (330.0)SCH79-67W100%0.0
2-11Chattanooga (292.0)SCA62-59L0%0.0
2-14Wofford (250.0)SCH40-33W100%0.0
2-16Furman (343.0)SCA53-64W100%0.0
2-21Elon (174.0)SCH62-63L0%0.0
2-23NC Greensboro (327.0)SCH75-71W100%0.0
2-28Appalachian St. (265.0)SCA70-67L0%0.0
3-2Western Carolina (243.0)SCA56-54L0%0.0
3-8Furman (343.0)SCN51-55L0%0.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Samford's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Samford's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Samford.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.


Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
SamfordSC26.2526.2533.0933.09-8.88-8.88
Western CarolinaSC4.094.0937.9337.93-0.99-0.99
College of CharlestonSC4.094.0974.1974.191.981.98
ElonSC4.094.0960.7160.710.880.88
NC GreensboroSC4.084.0822.2222.22-2.27-2.27
ChattanoogaSC4.064.0632.1432.14-1.45-1.45
FurmanSC4.034.0314.8114.81-2.84-2.84
Appalachian St.SC4.034.0344.4444.44-0.45-0.45
The CitadelSC3.973.9723.0823.08-2.14-2.14
DavidsonSC2.552.5577.4277.421.401.40
Georgia SouthernSC2.472.4740.0040.00-0.49-0.49
WoffordSC2.452.4540.0040.00-0.49-0.49
Austin PeayOVC1.751.7517.8617.86-1.12-1.12
LouisvilleBE1.711.7184.8584.851.191.19
MemphisCUSA1.691.6987.8887.881.281.28
Tennessee MartinOVC1.691.6925.9325.93-0.81-0.81
Florida Gulf CoastASun1.671.6767.7467.740.590.59
ToledoMAC1.661.6651.8551.850.060.06
Bowling GreenMAC1.641.6434.4834.48-0.51-0.51
Alcorn St.SWAC1.641.6425.8125.81-0.79-0.79
KentuckySEC1.641.6464.5264.520.480.48
Sam Houston St.Slnd1.611.6143.3343.33-0.22-0.22
Texas ArlingtonWAC1.611.6158.0658.060.260.26
WisconsinB101.611.6166.6766.670.540.54
High PointBSth0.190.1953.5753.570.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.190.1917.2417.24-0.13-0.13
MercerASun0.180.1865.6265.620.060.06
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.170.1748.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.160.1670.9770.970.070.07
Gardner WebbBSth0.160.1660.0060.000.030.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.160.1610.0010.00-0.13-0.13
East CarolinaCUSA0.160.1653.8553.850.010.01
LipscombASun0.160.1637.9337.93-0.04-0.04
AuburnSEC0.150.1528.1228.12-0.07-0.07
DukeACC0.150.1584.3884.380.110.11
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.140.1435.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Virginia TechACC0.140.1440.6240.62-0.03-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.130.1343.7543.75-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.130.1326.6726.67-0.06-0.06
OhioMAC0.130.1372.7372.730.060.06
JacksonvilleASun0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
MissouriSEC0.130.1369.7069.700.050.05
TennesseeSEC0.130.1362.5062.500.030.03
North FloridaASun0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
ClemsonACC0.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.110.1165.5265.520.040.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.110.1128.0028.00-0.05-0.05
Georgia TechACC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
Virginia Military InstBSth0.110.1139.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.110.1138.4638.46-0.03-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.110.1139.2939.29-0.02-0.02
NC WilmingtonCAA0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.110.1157.1457.140.020.02
LibertyBSth0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Southern MethodistCUSA0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechWAC0.100.1080.6580.650.060.06
Western KentuckySB0.100.1055.8855.880.010.01
Oral RobertsSlnd0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.100.1042.3142.31-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
MinnesotaB100.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
IllinoisB100.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
St. John'sBE0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
Southern MississippiCUSA0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
Notre DameBE0.100.1073.5373.530.050.05
SyracuseBE0.100.1074.2974.290.050.05
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0813.7913.79-0.06-0.06
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
BuffaloMAC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0857.6957.690.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0852.9452.940.000.00
Utah ValleyGWC0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
RutgersBE0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Louisiana St.SEC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.080.0870.3770.370.030.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Texas San AntonioWAC0.080.0831.2531.25-0.03-0.03
Utah St.WAC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Michigan St.B100.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
South FloridaBE0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
BaylorB120.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
IndianaB100.070.0781.8281.820.050.05
TulaneCUSA0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
UABCUSA0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
Air ForceMWC0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
RadfordBSth0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
BelmontOVC0.060.0680.0080.000.030.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0637.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.060.0636.6736.67-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.060.0658.8258.820.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0670.5970.590.020.02
BradleyMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
ButlerA100.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
ColgatePat0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticSB0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
MassachusettsA100.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.050.0559.2659.260.010.01
TroySB0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
TempleA100.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
HowardMEAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
LamarSlnd0.050.059.689.68-0.04-0.04
NC AshevilleBSth0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0585.1985.190.040.04
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
DePaulBE0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
CharlotteA100.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Houston BaptistGWC0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
MarylandACC0.050.0564.7164.710.020.02
RichmondA100.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
TexasB120.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
DenverWAC0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
East Tennessee St.ASun0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
GramblingSWAC0.050.050.000.00-0.05-0.05
IdahoWAC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.WAC0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
SeattleWAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
South Carolina UpstateASun0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Texas St.WAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
XavierA100.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Florida InternationalSB0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Loyola MDMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Virginia CommonwealthA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCAA0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
TowsonCAA0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
VermontAE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Central FloridaCUSA0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
IowaB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
MichiganB100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
NebraskaB100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
TulsaCUSA0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
VillanovaBE0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Chicago St.GWC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
St. LouisA100.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
New Orleansind0.030.0318.1818.18-0.02-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.CAA0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
WinthropBSth0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
DrexelCAA0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.030.0393.7593.750.020.02
Iowa St.B120.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
LafayettePat0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Long IslandNEC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
MaineAE0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
MississippiSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
MontanaBSky0.030.0379.3179.310.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
North TexasSB0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
PortlandWCC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
StanfordP120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
West VirginiaB120.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
ConnecticutBE0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
CornellIvy0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
CreightonMVC0.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
HarvardIvy0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
HoustonCUSA0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
PittsburghBE0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
PurdueB100.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Texas El PasoCUSA0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00