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Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


Samford

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:166.0
Current RPI:125
Expected SOS:253
Current SOS:203
Current Record:5-3
Expected Record:16-13
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-3
Current OOC Record:5-3
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:146
Expected OOC SOS:271



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-666.30.07%
22-778.50.24%
21-890.71.14%
20-9104.03.68%
19-10119.88.72%
18-11135.914.62%
17-12153.119.34%
16-13172.119.76%
15-14190.115.16%
14-15210.09.94%
13-16228.85.07%
12-17246.11.55%
11-18266.70.59%
10-19279.80.09%
9-20298.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Samford.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14San Diego (236.9)WCCA65-83W100%0.0
11-16New Mexico St. (118.0)WACA58-48L0%0.0
11-21Campbell (295.2)BSthA53-66W100%0.0
11-23Cincinnati (18.5)AmerA70-55L0%0.0
11-26Bethune Cookman (339.3)MEACH93-65W100%0.0
11-27Nicholls St. (253.7)SlndH103-106L0%0.0
11-29Saint Louis (286.9)A10A64-68W100%0.0
12-4Jacksonville St. (187.0)OVCH81-77W100%0.0
12-16South Alabama (143.9)SBA0-037%-4.1
12-19Florida St. (40.7)ACCA0-07%-17.8
12-22Florida A&M (345.5)MEACH0-094%19.1
12-31UNC Greensboro (171.8)SCA0-040%-3.1
1-2Western Carolina (271.1)SCA0-076%8.4
1-5Furman (147.4)SCH0-052%0.6
1-7Wofford (243.9)SCH0-069%6.0
1-11Mercer (184.8)SCH0-063%4.0
1-14The Citadel (299.9)SCA0-074%7.8
1-21Chattanooga (86.7)SCA0-020%-10.0
1-25East Tennessee St. (70.7)SCH0-029%-6.6
1-28VMI (322.5)SCA0-076%8.3
2-2Western Carolina (271.1)SCH0-089%14.6
2-4UNC Greensboro (171.8)SCH0-060%3.1
2-9Wofford (243.9)SCA0-049%-0.3
2-11Furman (147.4)SCA0-032%-5.7
2-15East Tennessee St. (70.7)SCA0-014%-12.8
2-18VMI (322.5)SCH0-089%14.6
2-22Chattanooga (86.7)SCH0-038%-3.7
2-25The Citadel (299.9)SCH0-088%14.1
2-27Mercer (184.8)SCA0-043%-2.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Samford's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Samford's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Samford.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
SamfordSC28.3526.4367.5059.249.924.88
The CitadelSC0.454.4550.0031.230.00-1.67
ChattanoogaSC0.004.4571.4373.200.002.07
VMISC0.454.450.0016.70-0.45-2.96
East Tennessee St.SC0.004.4383.3379.960.002.65
FurmanSC0.004.4333.3356.11-0.000.54
MercerSC0.004.4342.8647.80-0.00-0.19
Western CarolinaSC0.004.4328.5723.52-0.00-2.34
UNC GreensboroSC0.004.4271.4356.740.000.60
WoffordSC0.004.420.0034.34-0.00-1.38
Bethune CookmanMEAC7.481.8816.6733.38-4.99-0.63
CampbellBSth6.251.8550.0040.710.00-0.34
Nicholls St.Slnd7.481.8433.3334.92-2.49-0.56
San DiegoWCC7.531.8242.8632.34-1.08-0.64
New Mexico St.WAC7.531.8271.4369.043.230.69
Florida A&MMEAC0.001.790.0023.23-0.00-0.96
Jacksonville St.OVC6.251.7957.1448.060.89-0.07
Florida St.ACC0.001.7687.5064.320.000.50
CincinnatiAmer6.251.7285.7181.774.461.10
Saint LouisA106.251.7233.3324.58-2.08-0.88
South AlabamaSB0.001.7271.4357.780.000.27
PresbyterianBSth0.000.3133.3327.06-0.00-0.14
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.2457.1467.260.000.08
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.1933.3352.11-0.000.01
RadfordBSth0.000.1928.5734.28-0.00-0.06
StetsonASun0.000.1928.5728.24-0.00-0.08
High PointBSth0.000.1842.8646.48-0.00-0.01
LibertyBSth0.000.1833.3348.07-0.00-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.450.1825.0030.23-0.22-0.07
DaytonA100.000.1871.4373.490.000.08
WinthropBSth0.000.1850.0071.070.000.08
Miami FLACC0.000.1875.0066.100.000.06
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.1620.0037.65-0.00-0.04
Virginia TechACC0.000.1585.7162.990.000.04
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.1525.0038.83-0.00-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.150.0020.75-0.00-0.09
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.1542.8643.60-0.00-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.1571.4354.860.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.450.1314.2938.26-0.32-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.1312.5030.39-0.00-0.05
HowardMEAC0.000.1216.6744.34-0.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.000.1285.7183.660.000.08
USC UpstateASun0.450.1244.4441.30-0.05-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.120.0018.64-0.00-0.08
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.1257.1471.520.000.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.120.0027.12-0.00-0.06
Arkansas St.SB0.000.1275.0066.370.000.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1266.6761.550.000.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.1216.6729.81-0.00-0.05
NavyPat0.000.1225.0037.38-0.00-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.000.1240.0041.12-0.00-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.1277.7849.900.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.1216.6738.58-0.00-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1225.0027.53-0.00-0.05
South FloridaAmer0.000.1257.1433.230.00-0.04
UCFAmer0.450.1285.7176.240.320.06
ClemsonACC0.000.1271.4354.860.000.01
George MasonA100.000.1262.5046.900.00-0.01
La SalleA100.000.1266.6755.540.000.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.1042.8650.12-0.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0912.5037.99-0.00-0.02
Arizona St.P120.000.0962.5040.460.00-0.02
ColgatePat0.450.0912.5029.71-0.33-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.090.0017.13-0.00-0.06
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.090.0034.47-0.00-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.090.0035.95-0.00-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0957.1459.280.000.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.0920.0022.75-0.00-0.05
RichmondA100.000.0950.0048.210.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.000.0950.0054.070.000.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0983.3377.100.000.05
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0933.3336.74-0.00-0.02
TCUB120.390.09100.0061.680.390.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.0957.1436.010.00-0.03
Iowa St.B120.390.0971.4368.070.170.03
North CarolinaACC0.000.0987.5081.960.000.06
VirginiaACC0.000.0987.5078.510.000.05
Wake ForestACC0.000.0975.0054.490.000.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0916.6729.80-0.00-0.04
BYUWCC0.450.0962.5066.900.110.03
DavidsonA100.000.0971.4363.170.000.02
DetroitHorz0.000.090.0021.22-0.00-0.05
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.450.0957.1450.080.060.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0987.5075.240.000.04
FordhamA100.000.0950.0041.310.00-0.02
TulsaAmer0.390.0950.0038.050.00-0.02
TempleAmer0.000.0875.0064.920.000.02
Air ForceMWC0.390.0657.1448.500.06-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0642.8660.54-0.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0642.8658.58-0.000.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0625.0043.41-0.00-0.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0650.0041.540.00-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0620.0021.80-0.00-0.04
New MexicoMWC0.390.0662.5058.450.100.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0640.0041.93-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0620.0041.92-0.00-0.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0616.6739.49-0.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0662.5052.330.000.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0622.2221.23-0.00-0.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0666.6757.300.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0620.0035.47-0.00-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.0614.2942.67-0.00-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.450.0671.4363.930.190.02
BradleyMVC0.000.0642.8627.96-0.00-0.03
ColoradoP120.000.0675.0062.620.000.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.0655.5647.890.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.0657.1454.360.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.0671.4349.170.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0657.1458.940.000.01
UMBCAE0.000.0680.0054.540.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0650.0046.240.00-0.00
VermontAE0.000.0662.5071.320.000.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0675.0054.670.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.450.0657.1429.790.06-0.02
AkronMAC0.000.0671.4368.980.000.02
AuburnSEC0.000.0685.7157.450.000.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0650.0064.350.000.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.390.0628.5733.77-0.17-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0650.0050.840.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0657.1452.030.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0650.0060.620.000.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.06100.0091.920.000.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0614.2943.58-0.00-0.01
Little RockSB0.000.0666.6761.330.000.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0633.3346.38-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0675.0066.410.000.02
MichiganB100.000.0675.0066.460.000.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0628.5732.62-0.00-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0675.0048.030.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.780.0612.5023.75-0.59-0.03
Ohio St.B100.000.0687.5068.610.000.02
PacificWCC0.000.0642.8646.14-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.0642.8633.23-0.00-0.02
PortlandWCC0.000.0650.0054.070.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.06100.0089.330.000.05
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0685.7153.560.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0633.3332.35-0.00-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0625.0039.59-0.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0685.7170.060.000.02
Texas St.SB0.000.0650.0043.390.00-0.01
TroySB0.000.0642.8636.19-0.00-0.02
UABCUSA0.000.0650.0059.920.000.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0662.5067.390.000.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0650.0041.990.00-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0625.0020.78-0.00-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0633.3339.61-0.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.0688.8978.400.000.03
DuquesneA100.000.0644.4442.03-0.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0655.5641.690.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0685.7178.280.000.03
Notre DameACC0.000.06100.0077.380.000.03
Rhode IslandA100.390.0662.5069.130.100.02
SMUAmer0.000.0666.6766.860.000.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.0671.4370.390.000.02
TulaneAmer0.000.0612.5023.93-0.00-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0340.0054.54-0.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.390.0371.4360.540.170.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0039.53-0.00-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.390.030.0038.27-0.39-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0017.61-0.00-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.450.0371.4354.310.190.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0058.040.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.0340.0058.82-0.000.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0325.0055.33-0.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0375.0061.490.000.01
Texas TechB120.000.0387.5062.040.000.01
WisconsinB100.000.0377.7876.040.000.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.450.0328.5731.44-0.19-0.01
St. John'sBE0.450.0337.5037.03-0.11-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.390.0312.5033.65-0.29-0.01
DenverSum0.000.0342.8645.01-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.000.0314.2936.02-0.00-0.01
MarylandB100.000.0387.5059.330.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0387.5076.230.000.02
MississippiSEC0.000.0375.0048.500.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.390.0360.0058.590.080.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0350.0061.240.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0333.3330.44-0.00-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.390.0360.0069.120.080.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0342.8638.63-0.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.030.0033.85-0.00-0.01
UCLAP120.390.03100.0086.690.390.02
UNLVMWC0.000.0362.5043.800.00-0.00
USCP120.390.03100.0076.680.390.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.390.0337.5035.09-0.10-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0342.8638.17-0.00-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.450.0357.1451.790.060.00
AlbanyAE0.390.0342.8661.11-0.060.01
Ball St.MAC0.450.0342.8647.11-0.06-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.390.0328.5741.52-0.17-0.00
BrownIvy0.390.0355.5646.970.04-0.00
ButlerBE0.000.03100.0074.440.000.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0316.6739.78-0.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.0362.5050.710.000.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0357.1464.030.000.01
Kansas St.B120.450.0387.5059.310.330.01
LipscombASun0.390.0312.5033.04-0.29-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.0387.5075.590.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0325.0034.40-0.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0371.4358.600.000.00
MemphisAmer0.000.0375.0055.500.000.00
MinnesotaB100.000.0387.5068.020.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0375.0051.040.000.00
Penn St.B100.390.0366.6746.420.13-0.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0375.0049.180.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0342.8645.30-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0357.1449.130.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.450.030.0024.64-0.45-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0371.4366.700.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0350.0066.300.000.01
VCUA100.000.0375.0073.060.000.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0375.0086.710.000.02
XavierBE0.000.0387.5070.890.000.01