Samford

Conference:	SC
Expected RPI:	296.0
Current RPI:	296
Expected SOS:	205
Current SOS:	205
Current Record:	8-22
Expected Record:	8-22
Current Conf Record:	6-13
Expected Conf Record:	6-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-4
Current OOC Record:	2-9
Expected OOC Record:	2-9
Expected OOC RPI:	302
Expected OOC SOS:	173

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
8-22	296.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Samford.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Arkansas (30.0)	SEC	A	95-56	L	0%
11-13	Alabama A&M (350.0)	SWAC	H	87-68	W	100%
11-16	LSU (95.0)	SEC	A	105-86	L	0%
11-19	Loyola Chicago (22.0)	MVC	A	88-67	L	0%
11-21	Valparaiso (188.0)	MVC	A	88-67	L	0%
11-24	Southeastern Louisiana (150.0)	Slnd	H	71-77	L	0%
11-26	Mississippi Valley St. (349.0)	SWAC	H	83-70	W	100%
12-3	Jacksonville St. (149.0)	OVC	A	89-58	L	0%
12-5	Memphis (106.0)	Amer	A	65-64	L	0%
12-9	Clemson (11.0)	ACC	A	81-59	L	0%
12-21	Kennesaw St. (301.0)	ASun	A	71-66	L	0%
12-30	Chattanooga (304.0)	SC	H	73-56	W	100%
1-4	East Tennessee St. (93.0)	SC	H	72-90	L	0%
1-6	Western Carolina (215.0)	SC	H	85-71	W	100%
1-11	The Citadel (281.0)	SC	A	91-107	W	100%
1-13	Mercer (174.0)	SC	A	81-50	L	0%
1-18	Wofford (129.0)	SC	H	89-93	L	0%
1-20	Furman (97.0)	SC	A	78-67	L	0%
1-24	Chattanooga (304.0)	SC	A	78-71	L	0%
1-27	UNC Greensboro (65.0)	SC	H	82-98	L	0%
1-29	VMI (313.0)	SC	H	93-79	W	100%
2-1	East Tennessee St. (93.0)	SC	A	96-76	L	0%
2-3	Western Carolina (215.0)	SC	A	88-71	L	0%
2-7	Wofford (129.0)	SC	A	92-79	L	0%
2-10	The Citadel (281.0)	SC	H	116-103	W	100%
2-12	Mercer (174.0)	SC	H	69-74	L	0%
2-17	Furman (97.0)	SC	H	79-94	L	0%
2-23	VMI (313.0)	SC	A	82-89	W	100%
2-25	UNC Greensboro (65.0)	SC	A	88-75	L	0%
3-2	Chattanooga (304.0)	SC	N	79-89	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Samford's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Samford's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Samford.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Samford	SC	26.42	26.42	25.81	25.81	-12.78	-12.78
Chattanooga	SC	5.99	5.99	21.43	21.43	-3.42	-3.42
East Tennessee St.	SC	4.47	4.47	70.00	70.00	1.79	1.79
UNC Greensboro	SC	4.44	4.44	75.86	75.86	2.30	2.30
Furman	SC	4.38	4.38	65.52	65.52	1.36	1.36
Mercer	SC	4.38	4.38	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
The Citadel	SC	4.38	4.38	29.63	29.63	-1.78	-1.78
Wofford	SC	4.38	4.38	57.14	57.14	0.63	0.63
Western Carolina	SC	4.38	4.38	35.71	35.71	-1.25	-1.25
VMI	SC	4.32	4.32	26.92	26.92	-1.99	-1.99
Jacksonville St.	OVC	1.83	1.83	61.29	61.29	0.41	0.41
Alabama A&M	SWAC	1.77	1.77	10.00	10.00	-1.42	-1.42
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	1.77	1.77	12.90	12.90	-1.32	-1.32
Memphis	Amer	1.75	1.75	60.61	60.61	0.37	0.37
Loyola Chicago	MVC	1.75	1.75	83.87	83.87	1.18	1.18
Valparaiso	MVC	1.75	1.75	41.38	41.38	-0.30	-0.30
LSU	SEC	1.74	1.74	53.33	53.33	0.12	0.12
Clemson	ACC	1.72	1.72	70.97	70.97	0.72	0.72
Kennesaw St.	ASun	1.72	1.72	25.93	25.93	-0.83	-0.83
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	1.72	1.72	62.07	62.07	0.42	0.42
Arkansas	SEC	1.72	1.72	66.67	66.67	0.57	0.57
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.24	0.24	61.29	61.29	0.06	0.06
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.24	0.24	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.21	0.21	25.81	25.81	-0.10	-0.10
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.19	0.19	30.00	30.00	-0.08	-0.08
North Carolina	ACC	0.19	0.19	71.43	71.43	0.08	0.08
Alabama	SEC	0.19	0.19	55.88	55.88	0.02	0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.19	0.19	75.76	75.76	0.10	0.10
High Point	BSth	0.17	0.17	40.74	40.74	-0.03	-0.03
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.17	0.17	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.16	0.16	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
UAB	CUSA	0.16	0.16	58.06	58.06	0.03	0.03
South Carolina	SEC	0.16	0.16	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
North Florida	ASun	0.14	0.14	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
Florida St.	ACC	0.14	0.14	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Missouri St.	MVC	0.14	0.14	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.13	0.13	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Illinois St.	MVC	0.13	0.13	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.13	0.13	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.13	0.13	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.13	0.13	27.59	27.59	-0.06	-0.06
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.13	0.13	25.00	25.00	-0.07	-0.07
UCF	Amer	0.13	0.13	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.13	0.13	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.13	0.13	44.12	44.12	-0.02	-0.02
Cincinnati	Amer	0.13	0.13	88.24	88.24	0.10	0.10
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.13	0.13	68.97	68.97	0.05	0.05
Florida	SEC	0.13	0.13	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Longwood	BSth	0.11	0.11	13.33	13.33	-0.08	-0.08
Presbyterian	BSth	0.11	0.11	27.59	27.59	-0.05	-0.05
Liberty	BSth	0.11	0.11	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Drake	MVC	0.11	0.11	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.11	0.11	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Kent St.	MAC	0.11	0.11	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.11	0.11	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Elon	CAA	0.11	0.11	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia St.	SB	0.11	0.11	68.75	68.75	0.04	0.04
Minnesota	B10	0.11	0.11	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Akron	MAC	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.11	0.11	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.11	0.11	93.94	93.94	0.09	0.09
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.10	0.10	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Texas A&M	SEC	0.10	0.10	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Jacksonville	ASun	0.09	0.09	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
USC Upstate	ASun	0.09	0.09	10.71	10.71	-0.07	-0.07
Texas Tech	B12	0.09	0.09	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Butler	BE	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.08	0.08	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.08	0.08	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.08	0.08	80.00	80.00	0.05	0.05
Georgia Southern	SB	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Notre Dame	ACC	0.08	0.08	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Charlotte	CUSA	0.08	0.08	17.86	17.86	-0.05	-0.05
Marshall	CUSA	0.08	0.08	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Wyoming	MWC	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
New Orleans	Slnd	0.08	0.08	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Wake Forest	ACC	0.08	0.08	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Murray St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	82.76	82.76	0.05	0.05
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	Amer	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Troy	SB	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Houston	Amer	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Mississippi	SEC	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri	SEC	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Connecticut	Amer	0.07	0.07	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
South Florida	Amer	0.07	0.07	31.25	31.25	-0.03	-0.03
Tulsa	Amer	0.07	0.07	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
American	Pat	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Davidson	A10	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Lipscomb	ASun	0.06	0.06	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
NJIT	ASun	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Radford	BSth	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
VCU	A10	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
James Madison	CAA	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Marist	MAAC	0.06	0.06	19.35	19.35	-0.04	-0.04
UMBC	AE	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Hofstra	CAA	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.06	0.06	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Appalachian St.	SB	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
California	P12	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
College of Charleston	CAA	0.06	0.06	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Colorado	P12	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.06	0.06	24.24	24.24	-0.03	-0.03
Harvard	Ivy	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
La Salle	A10	0.06	0.06	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.06	0.06	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	32.00	32.00	-0.02	-0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	8.00	8.00	-0.05	-0.05
UT Arlington	SB	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Utah St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Delaware	CAA	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
New Hampshire	AE	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Winthrop	BSth	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	6.67	6.67	-0.05	-0.05
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	22.22	22.22	-0.03	-0.03
Xavier	BE	0.05	0.05	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
Louisville	ACC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Temple	Amer	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
East Carolina	Amer	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Seattle	WAC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Washington	P12	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.03	0.03	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Purdue	B10	0.03	0.03	82.35	82.35	0.02	0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.03	0.03	30.77	30.77	-0.01	-0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
BYU	WCC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Milwaukee	Horz	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Syracuse	ACC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
UMKC	WAC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
UNLV	MWC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Utah	P12	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Albany	AE	0.02	0.02	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.02	0.02	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Bucknell	Pat	0.02	0.02	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.02	0.02	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Fresno St.	MWC	0.02	0.02	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Little Rock	SB	0.02	0.02	20.00	20.00	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola MD	Pat	0.02	0.02	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.02	0.02	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.02	0.02	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
SMU	Amer	0.02	0.02	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Wichita St.	Amer	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01