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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Samford

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:313.0
Current RPI:313
Expected SOS:322
Current SOS:322
Current Record:10-20
Expected Record:10-20
Current Conf Record:7-11
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-9
Current OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC RPI:297
Expected OOC SOS:272



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-20313.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Samford.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12UT Arlington (199.0)SBA88-75L0%0.0
11-15Indiana (102.0)B10A105-59L0%0.0
11-18Louisiana Monroe (244.0)SBA86-52L0%0.0
11-21East Tennessee St. (206.0)ASunA89-75L0%0.0
11-23Western Kentucky (125.0)SBA67-64L0%0.0
11-26Stephen F. Austin (52.0)SlndA98-78L0%0.0
12-4Tennessee Martin (332.0)OVCH73-89L0%0.0
12-7Austin Peay (305.0)OVCH85-63W100%0.0
12-14Florida Gulf Coast (146.0)ASunA83-51L0%0.0
12-20Jacksonville (282.0)ASunA58-75W100%0.0
12-28Marquette (92.0)BEA71-48L0%0.0
12-30Presbyterian (349.0)BSthH71-59W100%0.0
1-2Wofford (153.0)SCH61-71L0%0.0
1-4Georgia Southern (303.0)SCA80-78L0%0.0
1-9Chattanooga (243.0)SCA90-81L0%0.0
1-11Furman (339.0)SCH57-55W100%0.0
1-18Western Carolina (221.0)SCA67-64L0%0.0
1-23UNC Greensboro (301.0)SCH88-78W100%0.0
1-25Elon (162.0)SCH62-59W100%0.0
2-1Wofford (153.0)SCA77-58L0%0.0
2-3Furman (339.0)SCA68-76W100%0.0
2-6Davidson (126.0)SCH88-109L0%0.0
2-8Chattanooga (243.0)SCH92-85W100%0.0
2-13Appalachian St. (335.0)SCA74-68L0%0.0
2-15Elon (162.0)SCA86-69L0%0.0
2-24The Citadel (345.0)SCA81-71L0%0.0
2-27Appalachian St. (335.0)SCH57-63L0%0.0
3-1Western Carolina (221.0)SCH93-86W100%0.0
3-7Appalachian St. (335.0)SCN70-56W100%0.0
3-8Davidson (126.0)SCN77-54L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Samford's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Samford's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Samford.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
SamfordSC26.3926.3933.9033.90-8.50-8.50
Appalachian St.SC5.685.6813.0413.04-4.20-4.20
Western CarolinaSC4.244.2451.7251.720.150.15
WoffordSC4.144.1455.5655.560.460.46
ChattanoogaSC4.124.1251.8551.850.150.15
DavidsonSC4.124.1258.6258.620.710.71
ElonSC4.114.1155.5655.560.460.46
FurmanSC4.104.1028.0028.00-1.80-1.80
Georgia SouthernSC2.652.6536.6736.67-0.71-0.71
The CitadelSC2.622.6210.7110.71-2.06-2.06
UNC GreensboroSC2.562.5639.2939.29-0.55-0.55
PresbyterianBSth1.941.9413.7913.79-1.40-1.40
East Tennessee St.ASun1.921.9251.6151.610.060.06
Florida Gulf CoastASun1.871.8761.2961.290.420.42
UT ArlingtonSB1.821.8241.3841.38-0.31-0.31
Western KentuckySB1.811.8160.0060.000.360.36
Louisiana MonroeSB1.801.8032.0032.00-0.65-0.65
Austin PeayOVC1.781.7837.0437.04-0.46-0.46
JacksonvilleASun1.771.7737.0437.04-0.46-0.46
Tennessee MartinOVC1.751.7517.8617.86-1.13-1.13
Stephen F. AustinSlnd1.691.6992.8692.861.451.45
IndianaB101.671.6751.6151.610.050.05
MarquetteBE1.671.6751.6151.610.050.05
GeorgiaSEC0.320.3259.3859.380.060.06
Kennesaw St.ASun0.270.2713.7913.79-0.20-0.20
StetsonASun0.270.2722.5822.58-0.15-0.15
Georgia St.SB0.260.2674.1974.190.120.12
Northern KentuckyASun0.250.2530.0030.00-0.10-0.10
LipscombASun0.250.2548.2848.28-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.240.2456.6756.670.030.03
CharlotteCUSA0.230.2354.8454.840.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.230.2350.0050.000.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.230.2364.5264.520.070.07
MercerASun0.220.2274.1974.190.110.11
USC UpstateASun0.220.2254.8454.840.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.200.2056.6756.670.030.03
Texas St.SB0.200.2020.6920.69-0.12-0.12
High PointBSth0.200.2050.0050.000.000.00
North FloridaASun0.190.1946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.180.1832.1432.14-0.06-0.06
Arkansas Little RockSB0.170.1743.3343.33-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.170.1728.5728.57-0.07-0.07
TroySB0.170.1731.0331.03-0.07-0.07
LibertyBSth0.170.1727.5927.59-0.08-0.08
RadfordBSth0.170.1760.0060.000.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.150.1561.7661.760.040.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.140.1441.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.140.1429.0329.03-0.06-0.06
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.140.1432.1432.14-0.05-0.05
Murray St.OVC0.140.1459.2659.260.030.03
Morehead St.OVC0.140.1458.0658.060.020.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.120.1248.1548.15-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.120.1231.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.120.1270.9770.970.050.05
ClemsonACC0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.120.1251.5251.520.000.00
VMIBSth0.110.1155.5655.560.010.01
DrexelCAA0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
DukeACC0.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
GeorgetownBE0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.110.1129.0329.03-0.05-0.05
Charleston SouthernBSth0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.110.1121.2121.21-0.06-0.06
NebraskaB100.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.100.1081.8281.820.060.06
DuquesneA100.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.100.1083.8783.870.070.07
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
ColoradoP120.090.0967.6567.650.030.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.090.0968.9768.970.030.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSlnd0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
Ohio St.B100.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
IonaMAAC0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
IUPUISum0.080.0810.3410.34-0.07-0.07
MinnesotaB100.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
Wichita St.MVC0.080.08100.00100.000.080.08
New MexicoMWC0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
IllinoisB100.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
WisconsinB100.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
XavierBE0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
CaliforniaP120.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
FordhamA100.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
UC DavisBW0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
MississippiSEC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
BelmontOVC0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0624.0024.00-0.03-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0646.1546.15-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.060.0610.7110.71-0.05-0.05
MaineAE0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
MaristMAAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
NevadaMWC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.060.0680.6580.650.040.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0630.7730.77-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
UCLAP120.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
VCUA100.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
William & MaryCAA0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0614.8114.81-0.04-0.04
TexasB120.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0546.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
OregonP120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
VirginiaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
Wright St.Horz0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
ButlerBE0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
DePaulBE0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Michigan St.B100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
NorthwesternB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
KansasB120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
LSUSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0394.1294.120.030.03
MemphisAmer0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
ArmyPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
RutgersAmer0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
UMKCWAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
WyomingMWC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
OklahomaB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
LouisvilleAmer0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Miami FLACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Arizona St.P120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
HartfordAE0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
IowaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
WashingtonP120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00