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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Samford

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:296.0
Current RPI:296
Expected SOS:205
Current SOS:205
Current Record:8-22
Expected Record:8-22
Current Conf Record:6-13
Expected Conf Record:6-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-4
Current OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC RPI:302
Expected OOC SOS:173



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-22296.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Samford.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Arkansas (30.0)SECA95-56L0%0.0
11-13Alabama A&M (350.0)SWACH87-68W100%0.0
11-16LSU (95.0)SECA105-86L0%0.0
11-19Loyola Chicago (22.0)MVCA88-67L0%0.0
11-21Valparaiso (188.0)MVCA88-67L0%0.0
11-24Southeastern Louisiana (150.0)SlndH71-77L0%0.0
11-26Mississippi Valley St. (349.0)SWACH83-70W100%0.0
12-3Jacksonville St. (149.0)OVCA89-58L0%0.0
12-5Memphis (106.0)AmerA65-64L0%0.0
12-9Clemson (11.0)ACCA81-59L0%0.0
12-21Kennesaw St. (301.0)ASunA71-66L0%0.0
12-30Chattanooga (304.0)SCH73-56W100%0.0
1-4East Tennessee St. (93.0)SCH72-90L0%0.0
1-6Western Carolina (215.0)SCH85-71W100%0.0
1-11The Citadel (281.0)SCA91-107W100%0.0
1-13Mercer (174.0)SCA81-50L0%0.0
1-18Wofford (129.0)SCH89-93L0%0.0
1-20Furman (97.0)SCA78-67L0%0.0
1-24Chattanooga (304.0)SCA78-71L0%0.0
1-27UNC Greensboro (65.0)SCH82-98L0%0.0
1-29VMI (313.0)SCH93-79W100%0.0
2-1East Tennessee St. (93.0)SCA96-76L0%0.0
2-3Western Carolina (215.0)SCA88-71L0%0.0
2-7Wofford (129.0)SCA92-79L0%0.0
2-10The Citadel (281.0)SCH116-103W100%0.0
2-12Mercer (174.0)SCH69-74L0%0.0
2-17Furman (97.0)SCH79-94L0%0.0
2-23VMI (313.0)SCA82-89W100%0.0
2-25UNC Greensboro (65.0)SCA88-75L0%0.0
3-2Chattanooga (304.0)SCN79-89L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Samford's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Samford's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Samford.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
SamfordSC26.4226.4225.8125.81-12.78-12.78
ChattanoogaSC5.995.9921.4321.43-3.42-3.42
East Tennessee St.SC4.474.4770.0070.001.791.79
UNC GreensboroSC4.444.4475.8675.862.302.30
FurmanSC4.384.3865.5265.521.361.36
MercerSC4.384.3850.0050.000.000.00
The CitadelSC4.384.3829.6329.63-1.78-1.78
WoffordSC4.384.3857.1457.140.630.63
Western CarolinaSC4.384.3835.7135.71-1.25-1.25
VMISC4.324.3226.9226.92-1.99-1.99
Jacksonville St.OVC1.831.8361.2961.290.410.41
Alabama A&MSWAC1.771.7710.0010.00-1.42-1.42
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC1.771.7712.9012.90-1.32-1.32
MemphisAmer1.751.7560.6160.610.370.37
Loyola ChicagoMVC1.751.7583.8783.871.181.18
ValparaisoMVC1.751.7541.3841.38-0.30-0.30
LSUSEC1.741.7453.3353.330.120.12
ClemsonACC1.721.7270.9770.970.720.72
Kennesaw St.ASun1.721.7225.9325.93-0.83-0.83
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd1.721.7262.0762.070.420.42
ArkansasSEC1.721.7266.6766.670.570.57
UNC AshevilleBSth0.240.2461.2961.290.060.06
Tennessee TechOVC0.240.2454.8454.840.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.210.2125.8125.81-0.10-0.10
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.190.1930.0030.00-0.08-0.08
North CarolinaACC0.190.1971.4371.430.080.08
AlabamaSEC0.190.1955.8855.880.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.190.1975.7675.760.100.10
High PointBSth0.170.1740.7440.74-0.03-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.170.1765.6265.620.050.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.160.1633.3333.33-0.05-0.05
UABCUSA0.160.1658.0658.060.030.03
South CarolinaSEC0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
North FloridaASun0.140.1436.6736.67-0.04-0.04
Florida St.ACC0.140.1464.5264.520.040.04
Missouri St.MVC0.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
BradleyMVC0.130.1359.3859.380.030.03
Illinois St.MVC0.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.130.1327.5927.59-0.06-0.06
Alcorn St.SWAC0.130.1325.0025.00-0.07-0.07
UCFAmer0.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.130.1344.1244.12-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.130.1388.2488.240.100.10
Northern KentuckyHorz0.130.1368.9768.970.050.05
FloridaSEC0.130.1362.5062.500.030.03
LongwoodBSth0.110.1113.3313.33-0.08-0.08
PresbyterianBSth0.110.1127.5927.59-0.05-0.05
LibertyBSth0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
DrakeMVC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.110.1140.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
ElonCAA0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
MinnesotaB100.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.110.1145.4545.45-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.110.1193.9493.940.090.09
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
KentuckySEC0.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
Texas A&MSEC0.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.090.0910.7110.71-0.07-0.07
Texas TechB120.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
ButlerBE0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Ohio St.B100.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
Virginia TechACC0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.080.0880.0080.000.050.05
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
MarshallCUSA0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
WyomingMWC0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
New OrleansSlnd0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.080.0878.7978.790.050.05
Wake ForestACC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.080.0882.7682.760.050.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
HoustonAmer0.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
MississippiSEC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
TulsaAmer0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
AmericanPat0.060.0620.0020.00-0.04-0.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
LipscombASun0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
NJITASun0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
StetsonASun0.060.0628.5728.57-0.03-0.03
VCUA100.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
CampbellBSth0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.060.0619.3519.35-0.04-0.04
UMBCAE0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
HofstraCAA0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0644.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0677.4277.420.030.03
ColoradoP120.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
DrexelCAA0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0624.2424.24-0.03-0.03
HarvardIvy0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
La SalleA100.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.060.0639.3939.39-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0632.0032.00-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.068.008.00-0.05-0.05
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
New HampshireAE0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
WinthropBSth0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
OhioMAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.056.676.67-0.05-0.05
DetroitHorz0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
XavierBE0.050.0584.8584.850.040.04
LouisvilleACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
TempleAmer0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
SeattleWAC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
WashingtonP120.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
YaleIvy0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0312.5012.50-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
MarquetteBE0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
BYUWCC0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Miami FLACC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
PittsburghACC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
UtahP120.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
AlbanyAE0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
BryantNEC0.020.029.689.68-0.02-0.02
BucknellPat0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
Little RockSB0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
Wichita St.Amer0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01