Samford

Conference:	SC
Expected RPI:	254.7
Current RPI:	261
Expected SOS:	205
Current SOS:	217
Current Record:	7-14
Expected Record:	10-17
Current Conf Record:	6-6
Expected Conf Record:	9-9
Probability of Auto Bid:	1.13%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	6-9
Current OOC Record:	1-8
Expected OOC Record:	1-8
Expected OOC RPI:	267
Expected OOC SOS:	57

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
13-14	196.3	0.09%
12-15	214.2	3.28%
11-16	231.2	15.29%
10-17	248.0	31.61%
9-18	263.8	31.73%
8-19	276.3	15.15%
7-20	285.7	2.84%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Samford.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-12	Youngstown St. (163.1)	Horz	H	69-76	L	0%	0.0
11-18	Jacksonville (285.8)	ASun	A	70-57	L	0%	0.0
11-22	Georgia St. (125.1)	CAA	H	47-55	L	0%	0.0
11-26	Texas Arlington (100.3)	Slnd	A	69-71	W	100%	0.0
12-1	Western Carolina (259.9)	SC	H	71-75	L	0%	0.0
12-5	Texas San Antonio (169.2)	Slnd	H	52-74	L	0%	0.0
12-7	Mercer (98.0)	ASun	H	78-83	L	0%	0.0
12-20	Kentucky (4.3)	SEC	A	82-50	L	0%	0.0
12-28	Sam Houston St. (286.0)	Slnd	A	74-58	L	0%	0.0
12-31	Maryland (112.8)	ACC	A	75-63	L	0%	0.0
1-5	Appalachian St. (249.5)	SC	H	63-68	L	0%	0.0
1-7	The Citadel (331.4)	SC	A	73-62	L	0%	0.0
1-12	Georgia Southern (228.1)	SC	A	58-53	L	0%	0.0
1-14	Chattanooga (285.8)	SC	H	81-70	W	100%	0.0
1-19	Elon (223.5)	SC	A	80-86	W	100%	0.0
1-22	NC Greensboro (256.3)	SC	A	61-60	L	0%	0.0
1-26	Georgia Southern (228.1)	SC	H	57-55	W	100%	0.0
1-28	Davidson (64.0)	SC	H	77-74	W	100%	0.0
1-30	College of Charleston (128.5)	SC	H	52-68	L	0%	0.0
2-2	Appalachian St. (249.5)	SC	A	52-53	W	100%	0.0
2-4	Wofford (173.4)	SC	A	61-66	W	100%	0.0
2-9	NC Greensboro (256.3)	SC	H	0-0		68%	5.2
2-11	Elon (223.5)	SC	H	0-0		61%	2.9
2-15	Davidson (64.0)	SC	A	0-0		5%	-18.3
2-18	Furman (230.9)	SC	H	0-0		52%	0.4
2-23	Western Carolina (259.9)	SC	A	0-0		37%	-3.5
2-25	Chattanooga (285.8)	SC	A	0-0		29%	-5.9

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Samford's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Samford's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Samford.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Samford	SC	26.40	26.35	34.58	35.75	-8.14	-7.51
Chattanooga	SC	3.27	4.70	28.57	34.99	-1.40	-1.41
Western Carolina	SC	3.06	4.57	31.82	33.98	-1.11	-1.47
NC Greensboro	SC	3.06	4.57	31.82	31.06	-1.11	-1.73
Appalachian St.	SC	5.31	4.56	33.33	38.44	-1.77	-1.06
Elon	SC	2.99	4.56	52.63	49.81	0.16	-0.02
Georgia Southern	SC	5.37	4.53	38.89	40.58	-1.19	-0.85
Davidson	SC	2.99	4.51	80.00	79.00	1.79	2.61
Furman	SC	0.88	2.85	47.62	48.84	-0.04	-0.07
Wofford	SC	3.10	2.82	61.90	59.99	0.74	0.56
College of Charleston	SC	3.07	2.79	56.52	58.60	0.40	0.48
The Citadel	SC	2.94	2.78	5.00	8.04	-2.64	-2.34
Mercer	ASun	2.55	2.05	69.57	70.66	1.00	0.85
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	2.56	2.02	55.00	59.35	0.26	0.38
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	2.60	2.01	22.22	27.09	-1.44	-0.92
Texas Arlington	Slnd	2.50	1.98	80.00	78.65	1.50	1.14
Jacksonville	ASun	2.48	1.98	13.64	19.21	-1.81	-1.22
Georgia St.	CAA	2.50	1.96	65.22	68.65	0.76	0.73
Kentucky	SEC	2.44	1.92	95.65	92.32	2.22	1.62
Maryland	ACC	2.38	1.85	57.14	49.12	0.34	-0.03
Youngstown St.	Horz	2.38	1.85	47.37	49.66	-0.13	-0.01
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.34	0.26	52.38	52.86	0.02	0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.31	0.25	45.45	44.66	-0.03	-0.03
North Carolina	ACC	0.28	0.23	86.96	83.16	0.21	0.15
South Carolina	SEC	0.26	0.22	40.91	39.56	-0.05	-0.05
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.18	0.20	47.06	50.75	-0.01	0.00
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.18	0.20	18.18	21.13	-0.11	-0.11
Texas St.	Slnd	0.18	0.20	22.22	27.62	-0.10	-0.09
Miami FL	ACC	0.22	0.19	65.00	60.02	0.07	0.04
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.21	0.19	39.13	36.10	-0.05	-0.05
Duke	ACC	0.16	0.19	86.36	83.09	0.12	0.13
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.16	0.19	8.70	11.67	-0.13	-0.15
Massachusetts	A10	0.17	0.17	73.91	68.58	0.08	0.06
Presbyterian	BSth	0.11	0.16	40.91	43.66	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.17	0.16	70.83	64.42	0.07	0.05
Georgia	SEC	0.15	0.16	45.45	41.20	-0.01	-0.03
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.26	0.16	50.00	48.90	0.00	-0.00
Valparaiso	Horz	0.18	0.14	65.22	63.61	0.05	0.04
Butler	Horz	0.11	0.13	50.00	50.80	0.00	0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.23	0.13	47.83	43.66	-0.01	-0.02
East Carolina	CUSA	0.17	0.13	44.44	41.71	-0.02	-0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.11	0.13	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
Richmond	A10	0.11	0.13	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.11	0.13	41.18	42.61	-0.02	-0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.16	0.13	61.90	67.23	0.04	0.04
Florida St.	ACC	0.16	0.13	72.73	71.71	0.07	0.05
Kent St.	MAC	0.11	0.13	71.43	69.05	0.05	0.05
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.06	0.13	69.57	65.87	0.02	0.04
Belmont	ASun	0.15	0.13	69.57	73.28	0.06	0.06
Lipscomb	ASun	0.15	0.13	43.48	43.82	-0.02	-0.02
North Florida	ASun	0.10	0.13	45.83	46.68	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.15	0.13	54.55	56.09	0.01	0.02
Stetson	ASun	0.15	0.13	31.82	31.31	-0.05	-0.05
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.15	0.13	80.00	78.06	0.09	0.07
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.18	0.10	81.82	80.43	0.12	0.06
Columbia	Ivy	0.06	0.10	55.00	54.80	0.01	0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.06	0.10	19.05	21.29	-0.04	-0.06
Auburn	SEC	0.17	0.10	56.52	48.81	0.02	-0.00
Winthrop	BSth	0.05	0.10	34.78	34.61	-0.02	-0.03
Navy	Pat	0.11	0.10	9.52	13.19	-0.09	-0.07
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.06	0.10	27.78	29.87	-0.03	-0.04
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.18	0.10	25.00	23.75	-0.09	-0.05
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.06	0.10	55.00	54.48	0.01	0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.12	0.10	27.78	29.58	-0.05	-0.04
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.11	0.10	52.38	57.86	0.01	0.02
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.11	0.10	55.00	60.33	0.01	0.02
Utah Valley	GWC	0.10	0.10	54.55	57.69	0.01	0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.11	0.10	40.00	40.18	-0.02	-0.02
Indiana	B10	0.10	0.10	75.00	75.78	0.05	0.05
Kansas	B12	0.11	0.10	78.26	78.39	0.06	0.05
Bradley	MVC	0.11	0.10	24.00	24.86	-0.06	-0.05
NC Asheville	BSth	0.10	0.09	68.18	67.64	0.04	0.03
Towson	CAA	0.10	0.09	4.00	5.26	-0.09	-0.08
Alabama	SEC	0.16	0.09	68.18	69.10	0.06	0.04
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.10	0.09	39.13	42.12	-0.02	-0.01
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.09	82.61	77.63	0.03	0.05
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.12	0.07	50.00	51.73	0.00	0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.12	0.07	52.38	52.87	0.01	0.00
South Florida	BE	0.12	0.07	54.55	48.60	0.01	-0.00
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.12	0.07	38.10	37.86	-0.03	-0.02
Campbell	BSth	0.12	0.07	56.00	55.65	0.01	0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.06	0.07	14.29	17.17	-0.04	-0.05
Detroit	Horz	0.06	0.07	47.83	49.03	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.12	0.07	30.00	30.06	-0.05	-0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.12	0.07	69.57	61.31	0.05	0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.06	0.07	47.37	52.87	-0.00	0.00
San Diego St.	MWC	0.06	0.07	85.71	78.05	0.04	0.04
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.12	0.07	60.87	59.76	0.03	0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.06	0.07	38.10	40.81	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.06	0.07	35.00	39.38	-0.02	-0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.12	0.07	56.52	57.72	0.02	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.06	0.07	41.67	40.61	-0.01	-0.01
High Point	BSth	0.11	0.07	31.82	32.75	-0.04	-0.02
North Texas	SB	0.12	0.07	50.00	50.01	0.00	0.00
Texas	B12	0.12	0.07	60.87	61.37	0.03	0.02
UC Riverside	BW	0.12	0.07	42.86	39.66	-0.02	-0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.06	0.07	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.07	34.78	38.77	-0.02	-0.01
Longwood	ind	0.05	0.07	30.00	27.84	-0.02	-0.03
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.06	0.07	54.55	56.84	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.00	0.07	82.61	80.42	0.00	0.04
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.11	0.07	72.22	71.97	0.05	0.03
Niagara	MAAC	0.11	0.07	37.50	41.54	-0.03	-0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.12	0.07	65.22	62.65	0.04	0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.11	0.07	73.91	75.49	0.05	0.03
Penn St.	B10	0.11	0.06	41.67	38.67	-0.02	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.06	19.05	22.37	-0.03	-0.04
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.06	80.95	77.38	0.03	0.03
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.06	73.91	68.43	0.02	0.02
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.05	0.06	83.33	84.76	0.03	0.04
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.06	33.33	37.25	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.05	0.06	30.00	31.54	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.06	62.50	61.50	0.01	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.06	65.22	60.58	0.02	0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.11	0.06	19.05	24.61	-0.07	-0.03
Tulsa	CUSA	0.11	0.06	60.87	59.05	0.02	0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.05	0.06	47.83	50.65	-0.00	0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.10	0.06	79.17	78.10	0.06	0.03
Florida International	SB	0.10	0.06	33.33	37.16	-0.03	-0.02
George Mason	CAA	0.10	0.06	76.00	72.50	0.05	0.03
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.06	47.83	48.56	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.00	0.06	81.82	76.80	0.00	0.03
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.06	12.50	13.44	-0.04	-0.05
Louisville	BE	0.10	0.06	78.26	72.66	0.06	0.03
Old Dominion	CAA	0.05	0.06	60.00	58.29	0.01	0.01
Portland	WCC	0.10	0.06	21.74	21.70	-0.06	-0.03
Radford	BSth	0.10	0.06	8.70	13.10	-0.09	-0.04
Akron	MAC	0.06	0.03	68.18	67.91	0.02	0.01
Army	Pat	0.06	0.03	40.91	41.72	-0.01	-0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.00	0.03	33.33	35.97	-0.00	-0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.06	0.03	68.42	66.45	0.02	0.01
Denver	SB	0.06	0.03	70.83	72.23	0.02	0.02
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.06	0.03	13.64	16.14	-0.05	-0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.06	0.03	68.00	70.03	0.02	0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.06	0.03	21.74	22.76	-0.03	-0.02
Texas A&M	B12	0.06	0.03	52.38	46.15	0.00	-0.00
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.06	0.03	45.00	44.15	-0.01	-0.00
Western Kentucky	SB	0.00	0.03	34.78	34.48	-0.00	-0.01
Baylor	B12	0.06	0.03	90.91	83.85	0.05	0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.03	38.10	42.78	-0.01	-0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.06	0.03	47.62	48.82	-0.00	-0.00
Colorado St.	MWC	0.06	0.03	66.67	60.80	0.02	0.01
Fresno St.	WAC	0.06	0.03	39.13	44.52	-0.01	-0.00
Houston	CUSA	0.06	0.03	47.62	44.63	-0.00	-0.00
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.06	0.03	25.00	28.52	-0.03	-0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.06	0.03	42.86	43.45	-0.01	-0.00
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.03	79.17	75.98	0.03	0.02
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.05	0.03	34.78	35.20	-0.02	-0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.06	0.03	45.45	40.70	-0.01	-0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.06	0.03	80.77	80.75	0.03	0.02
Pepperdine	WCC	0.06	0.03	31.82	33.83	-0.02	-0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.03	35.00	40.78	-0.02	-0.01
San Jose St.	WAC	0.06	0.03	27.27	26.95	-0.03	-0.01
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.06	0.03	21.74	24.58	-0.03	-0.02
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.06	0.03	43.48	43.31	-0.01	-0.00
Troy	SB	0.06	0.03	28.57	30.17	-0.02	-0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.03	61.90	58.59	0.01	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.03	40.91	39.82	-0.01	-0.01
Utah St.	WAC	0.06	0.03	50.00	52.93	0.00	0.00
Weber St.	BSky	0.00	0.03	80.00	76.84	0.00	0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.03	75.00	73.97	0.03	0.02
Albany	AE	0.05	0.03	60.00	60.42	0.01	0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.00	0.03	30.43	26.44	-0.00	-0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.05	0.03	71.43	66.60	0.02	0.01
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.03	66.67	62.65	0.02	0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.05	0.03	36.84	41.45	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.05	0.03	36.36	39.72	-0.01	-0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.03	32.00	35.39	-0.02	-0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.05	0.03	40.91	42.05	-0.01	-0.00
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.03	72.73	64.43	0.02	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.03	79.17	80.10	0.03	0.02
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.03	27.27	27.21	-0.02	-0.01
Missouri	B12	0.05	0.03	91.30	87.18	0.04	0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	45.45	46.99	-0.00	-0.00
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.05	0.03	26.09	28.60	-0.03	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.03	20.83	20.60	-0.03	-0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	63.74	0.02	0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	10.00	14.93	-0.04	-0.02
Temple	A10	0.05	0.03	77.27	75.06	0.03	0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.03	56.52	55.20	0.01	0.00
Washington	P12	0.05	0.03	69.57	66.54	0.02	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.03	69.57	65.15	0.02	0.01
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.03	43.48	44.25	-0.01	-0.00
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.05	0.03	59.09	57.28	0.01	0.00
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.05	0.03	77.27	73.45	0.03	0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.03	34.78	33.43	-0.02	-0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.00	0.03	63.64	56.71	0.00	0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.00	0.03	78.26	72.34	0.00	0.01
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.03	43.48	40.28	-0.01	-0.01