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Through games of Feb 7, 2016.


Samford

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:254.6
Current RPI:267
Expected SOS:284
Current SOS:281
Current Record:9-14
Expected Record:12-17
Current Conf Record:2-10
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-6
Current OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:160
Expected OOC SOS:320



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-14207.10.40%
14-15221.06.25%
13-16237.224.04%
12-17254.536.96%
11-18271.124.75%
10-19285.86.96%
9-20297.90.63%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Samford.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Louisville (16.1)ACCA86-45L0%0.0
11-21Kennesaw St. (294.4)ASunH77-65W100%0.0
11-23Troy (292.7)SBN79-83W100%0.0
11-24North Texas (300.7)CUSAA72-74W100%0.0
11-25Idaho (219.2)BSkyN75-58W100%0.0
11-28Austin Peay (241.6)OVCA74-73L0%0.0
12-1Jacksonville St. (304.4)OVCA71-77W100%0.0
12-4Texas (26.7)B12A59-49L0%0.0
12-12Florida A&M (348.6)MEACA67-86W100%0.0
12-18South Alabama (256.6)SBH70-72L0%0.0
12-20Nebraska (147.7)B10A58-69W100%0.0
1-2Mercer (120.4)SCA69-50L0%0.0
1-5The Citadel (303.5)SCH94-74W100%0.0
1-9Wofford (191.4)SCA69-64L0%0.0
1-11Furman (162.6)SCA77-57L0%0.0
1-14East Tennessee St. (123.8)SCH77-81L0%0.0
1-16Western Carolina (239.7)SCH84-68W100%0.0
1-21VMI (333.8)SCA83-76L0%0.0
1-24UNC Greensboro (265.4)SCA86-78L0%0.0
1-30Chattanooga (43.5)SCH56-63L0%0.0
2-1Mercer (120.4)SCH70-85L0%0.0
2-4Furman (162.6)SCH65-67L0%0.0
2-6Wofford (191.4)SCH75-78L0%0.0
2-8The Citadel (303.5)SCA0-066%4.5
2-11East Tennessee St. (123.8)SCA0-027%-6.8
2-13Western Carolina (239.7)SCA0-042%-2.1
2-18UNC Greensboro (265.4)SCH0-067%4.9
2-20VMI (333.8)SCH0-086%12.0
2-27Chattanooga (43.5)SCA0-010%-14.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Samford's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Samford's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Samford.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
SamfordSC26.4426.4341.5944.52-4.44-2.89
MercerSC4.954.4770.0068.591.981.66
WoffordSC4.954.4735.0041.33-1.48-0.77
East Tennessee St.SC2.844.4457.1457.420.410.66
FurmanSC4.964.4447.6249.85-0.24-0.01
The CitadelSC2.874.4335.0032.41-0.86-1.56
UNC GreensboroSC2.834.4325.0029.24-1.41-1.84
Western CarolinaSC2.834.4330.0031.56-1.13-1.63
ChattanoogaSC3.014.4285.7184.252.153.03
VMISC2.874.3511.1113.99-2.23-3.14
Kennesaw St.ASun2.431.9122.7324.27-1.32-0.98
TroySB2.371.8725.0027.62-1.19-0.84
Austin PeayOVC2.371.8434.7838.39-0.72-0.43
Jacksonville St.OVC2.271.8226.0925.23-1.08-0.90
IdahoBSky2.281.7857.1456.890.330.25
North TexasCUSA2.281.7835.0034.17-0.68-0.56
South AlabamaSB2.231.7830.0031.84-0.89-0.65
Florida A&MMEAC2.221.7522.2224.56-1.23-0.89
LouisvilleACC2.221.7581.8276.991.410.95
NebraskaB102.171.7256.5253.540.280.12
TexasB122.171.7268.1861.390.790.39
Appalachian St.SB0.340.2726.0929.20-0.16-0.11
PresbyterianBSth0.300.2525.0026.87-0.15-0.12
Morehead St.OVC0.190.2150.0052.350.000.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.190.2168.1866.670.070.07
NavyPat0.200.1962.5062.450.050.05
JacksonvilleASun0.200.1950.0049.860.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.150.1834.7840.92-0.04-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.160.1840.0039.00-0.03-0.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.150.1842.8646.34-0.02-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.200.1865.2266.160.060.06
North CarolinaACC0.250.1882.6178.690.160.10
UT ArlingtonSB0.200.1866.6770.540.070.07
Georgia TechACC0.200.1752.1751.590.010.01
Ohio St.B100.160.1658.3354.160.030.01
North FloridaASun0.200.1565.2267.140.060.05
LipscombASun0.140.1525.0029.27-0.07-0.06
IllinoisB100.150.1545.8344.11-0.01-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.190.1530.0035.77-0.08-0.04
BelmontOVC0.190.1566.6766.540.060.05
Arkansas Little RockSB0.260.1590.4886.880.210.11
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.140.1552.0050.250.010.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.230.1575.0071.500.120.06
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.110.1331.8236.14-0.04-0.04
ButlerBE0.110.1369.5767.230.040.04
CampbellBSth0.110.1328.5729.65-0.05-0.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.1329.1733.15-0.02-0.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.150.1345.4547.57-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.110.1325.0033.21-0.05-0.04
Virginia TechACC0.150.1354.1749.270.01-0.00
Penn St.B100.060.1250.0046.740.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.100.1263.6460.940.030.03
High PointBSth0.100.1255.0057.480.010.02
StetsonASun0.100.1223.8127.69-0.05-0.05
USC UpstateASun0.150.1222.7323.25-0.08-0.07
DavidsonA100.150.1260.0057.960.030.02
DaytonA100.140.1286.3682.380.100.08
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.100.1252.3854.010.000.01
IPFWSum0.140.1270.8368.570.060.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.140.1266.6762.620.050.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.150.1250.0049.090.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.210.1242.8639.19-0.03-0.03
Georgia St.SB0.100.1257.8956.100.020.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.100.1257.8961.750.020.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.140.1228.5726.96-0.06-0.05
Southern MissCUSA0.160.1231.5831.98-0.06-0.04
Texas St.SB0.100.1238.8938.51-0.02-0.03
Iowa St.B120.100.1273.9170.060.050.05
PittsburghACC0.100.1276.1968.220.050.04
VanderbiltSEC0.190.1256.5260.000.020.02
IndianaB100.140.1279.1774.020.080.06
Alcorn St.SWAC0.160.0936.8438.39-0.04-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.160.0972.0070.510.070.04
ElonCAA0.100.0952.1750.420.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.100.0970.8370.840.040.04
Wake ForestACC0.100.0943.4840.61-0.01-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.090.0940.9143.53-0.02-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.090.0945.4549.70-0.01-0.00
RiceCUSA0.160.0928.5729.72-0.07-0.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0917.3920.66-0.06-0.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.090.0913.6415.80-0.07-0.06
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.0947.8350.15-0.000.00
UABCUSA0.150.0982.6179.420.100.05
ClemsonACC0.150.0960.8760.240.030.02
ConnecticutAmer0.140.0973.9172.480.070.04
TennesseeSEC0.090.0947.8346.88-0.00-0.01
VillanovaBE0.090.0986.9686.370.070.06
West VirginiaB120.090.0982.6179.550.060.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0735.0035.98-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.060.0640.9145.30-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.110.0652.1751.940.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.100.0631.5831.80-0.04-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.069.5213.52-0.04-0.05
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.100.0615.0027.26-0.07-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.050.0645.4538.47-0.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0647.6252.07-0.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0661.9056.690.010.01
NJITASun0.090.0654.1755.250.010.01
RadfordBSth0.050.0650.0051.270.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0686.3679.150.040.04
UCFAmer0.050.0652.3845.700.00-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.090.0659.0953.030.020.00
IUPUISum0.100.0640.0039.79-0.02-0.01
LSUSEC0.100.0665.2260.270.030.01
ArkansasSEC0.100.0652.1755.930.000.01
AuburnSEC0.100.0640.9136.61-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.100.0666.6767.690.030.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0623.8126.56-0.03-0.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.100.0660.0060.090.020.01
ColumbiaIvy0.100.0666.6765.210.030.02
George MasonA100.100.0634.7834.15-0.03-0.02
Green BayHorz0.050.0654.5556.000.000.01
HarvardIvy0.100.0635.0038.52-0.03-0.01
LibertyBSth0.090.0634.7836.50-0.03-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0671.4368.710.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.100.0630.4335.11-0.04-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.100.0671.4369.420.040.02
MissouriSEC0.100.0634.7830.36-0.03-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.090.0640.0045.51-0.02-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.050.0647.3749.97-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.100.0610.0013.13-0.08-0.04
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0656.5262.780.000.02
Portland St.BSky0.050.0631.5837.72-0.02-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0642.1145.73-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.100.0615.0015.35-0.07-0.04
TulaneAmer0.100.0633.3332.34-0.03-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0676.1973.400.030.03
Western MichiganMAC0.100.0633.3335.48-0.03-0.02
CreightonBE0.100.0662.5059.780.020.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.100.0616.6720.13-0.06-0.03
UTSACUSA0.100.0613.6413.62-0.07-0.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.100.0645.4546.30-0.01-0.00
BaylorB120.050.0672.7366.500.020.02
DukeACC0.000.0673.9170.040.000.02
KansasB120.050.0681.8277.570.030.03
Kansas St.B120.050.0660.8758.470.010.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0681.8276.740.030.03
MichiganB100.090.0669.5766.220.040.02
Michigan St.B100.090.0683.3383.020.060.04
NorthwesternB100.050.0666.6763.420.020.01
OklahomaB120.000.0686.3682.100.000.04
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0647.8344.37-0.00-0.01
PurdueB100.050.0679.1776.550.030.03
RutgersB100.090.0621.7420.35-0.05-0.03
TCUB120.090.0643.4837.22-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.090.0659.0953.120.020.00
VirginiaACC0.050.0682.6178.050.030.03
WashingtonP120.090.0665.2261.070.030.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0315.0022.36-0.04-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.060.0357.1459.470.010.01
HoustonAmer0.060.0369.5766.510.020.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0320.0026.74-0.03-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0340.9149.27-0.01-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0350.0053.300.000.00
Arizona St.P120.050.0354.1751.660.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0338.8945.66-0.01-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.050.0330.0034.56-0.02-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0350.0051.170.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.050.034.357.73-0.04-0.03
DenverSum0.050.0354.1751.800.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0322.7327.19-0.00-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0345.0046.13-0.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0339.1338.57-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0350.0051.170.000.00
MississippiSEC0.050.0365.2259.020.020.01
MontanaBSky0.050.0357.8962.290.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.050.0340.9143.71-0.01-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0314.2917.92-0.04-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0363.1658.790.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0354.1755.080.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0345.0049.39-0.01-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0325.0022.76-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0373.9169.830.020.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0320.0019.66-0.03-0.02
UC DavisBW0.050.0340.0036.77-0.01-0.01
USCP120.050.0378.2673.060.030.01
Washington St.P120.050.0336.3632.00-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0365.0069.270.000.01
WinthropBSth0.050.0365.0063.440.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0320.8323.63-0.03-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0330.4326.50-0.02-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0336.8441.44-0.01-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.050.0369.5764.890.020.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0382.6181.140.030.02
HartfordAE0.050.0326.0926.50-0.02-0.01
IowaB100.050.0382.6180.580.030.02
KentuckySEC0.050.0373.9171.550.020.01
MarylandB100.050.0387.5083.690.030.02
MinnesotaB100.050.0326.0927.82-0.02-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0369.5765.850.000.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.039.0917.09-0.04-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.050.0356.5256.610.010.00
Saint LouisA100.050.0336.3633.47-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0337.5043.37-0.01-0.00
StanfordP120.050.0350.0046.610.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0366.6762.560.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0378.2678.050.030.02
UMKCWAC0.050.0328.5732.71-0.02-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0333.3334.94-0.02-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.0360.8755.840.000.00