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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Samford

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:252.0
Current RPI:252
Expected SOS:271
Current SOS:271
Current Record:12-19
Expected Record:12-19
Current Conf Record:5-15
Expected Conf Record:5-15
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-4
Current OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:152
Expected OOC SOS:307



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-19252.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Samford.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Louisville (17.0)ACCA86-45L0%0.0
11-21Kennesaw St. (263.0)ASunH77-65W100%0.0
11-23Troy (293.0)SBN79-83W100%0.0
11-24North Texas (295.0)CUSAA72-74W100%0.0
11-25Idaho (191.0)BSkyN75-58W100%0.0
11-28Austin Peay (184.0)OVCA74-73L0%0.0
12-1Jacksonville St. (309.0)OVCA71-77W100%0.0
12-4Texas (27.0)B12A59-49L0%0.0
12-12Florida A&M (349.0)MEACA67-86W100%0.0
12-18South Alabama (240.0)SBH70-72L0%0.0
12-20Nebraska (165.0)B10A58-69W100%0.0
1-2Mercer (194.0)SCA69-50L0%0.0
1-5The Citadel (322.0)SCH94-74W100%0.0
1-9Wofford (199.0)SCA69-64L0%0.0
1-11Furman (167.0)SCA77-57L0%0.0
1-14East Tennessee St. (85.0)SCH77-81L0%0.0
1-16Western Carolina (166.0)SCH84-68W100%0.0
1-21VMI (316.0)SCA83-76L0%0.0
1-24UNC Greensboro (237.0)SCA86-78L0%0.0
1-30Chattanooga (50.0)SCH56-63L0%0.0
2-1Mercer (194.0)SCH70-85L0%0.0
2-4Furman (167.0)SCH65-67L0%0.0
2-6Wofford (199.0)SCH75-78L0%0.0
2-8The Citadel (322.0)SCA86-95W100%0.0
2-11East Tennessee St. (85.0)SCA94-90L0%0.0
2-13Western Carolina (166.0)SCA76-71L0%0.0
2-18UNC Greensboro (237.0)SCH77-82L0%0.0
2-20VMI (316.0)SCH73-67W100%0.0
2-27Chattanooga (50.0)SCA77-66L0%0.0
3-4VMI (316.0)SCN92-85W100%0.0
3-5Chattanooga (50.0)SCN59-54L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Samford's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Samford's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Samford.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
SamfordSC26.5326.5341.6141.61-4.45-4.45
ChattanoogaSC5.925.9282.7682.763.883.88
VMISC5.745.7420.8320.83-3.35-3.35
East Tennessee St.SC4.384.3863.3363.331.171.17
MercerSC4.334.3351.7251.720.150.15
Western CarolinaSC4.324.3242.8642.86-0.62-0.62
FurmanSC4.304.3048.2848.28-0.15-0.15
WoffordSC4.274.2739.2939.29-0.92-0.92
The CitadelSC4.244.2425.9325.93-2.04-2.04
UNC GreensboroSC4.244.2433.3333.33-1.41-1.41
Kennesaw St.ASun1.801.8032.1432.14-0.64-0.64
TroySB1.741.7425.0025.00-0.87-0.87
Austin PeayOVC1.721.7246.8846.88-0.11-0.11
Jacksonville St.OVC1.711.7121.4321.43-0.98-0.98
South AlabamaSB1.671.6736.6736.67-0.44-0.44
IdahoBSky1.671.6763.3363.330.440.44
North TexasCUSA1.671.6734.4834.48-0.52-0.52
Florida A&MMEAC1.641.6423.0823.08-0.88-0.88
LouisvilleACC1.641.6473.3373.330.770.77
NebraskaB101.611.6148.4848.48-0.05-0.05
TexasB121.611.6161.2961.290.360.36
PresbyterianBSth0.250.2528.5728.57-0.11-0.11
Appalachian St.SB0.240.2429.0329.03-0.10-0.10
Tennessee TechOVC0.230.2360.7160.710.050.05
NavyPat0.200.2056.2556.250.020.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.190.1941.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.180.1858.6258.620.030.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.180.1858.0658.060.030.03
JacksonvilleASun0.170.1742.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.170.1760.6160.610.040.04
CharlotteCUSA0.160.1642.4242.42-0.02-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.160.1682.3582.350.100.10
UT ArlingtonSB0.160.1668.7568.750.060.06
BelmontOVC0.160.1663.3363.330.040.04
Georgia TechACC0.160.1657.5857.580.020.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.160.1664.5264.520.050.05
LipscombASun0.160.1632.2632.26-0.06-0.06
Alabama St.SWAC0.160.1641.3841.38-0.03-0.03
IllinoisB100.150.1544.1244.12-0.02-0.02
ButlerBE0.150.1567.7467.740.050.05
CampbellBSth0.150.1533.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Virginia TechACC0.140.1457.5857.580.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
North FloridaASun0.140.1463.3363.330.040.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.130.1351.7251.720.000.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.130.1387.1087.100.100.10
Tennessee St.OVC0.130.1364.2964.290.040.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.130.1378.1278.120.070.07
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.130.1376.6776.670.070.07
Iowa St.B120.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
StetsonASun0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
USC UpstateASun0.110.1125.0025.00-0.06-0.06
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.110.1134.4834.48-0.03-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
High PointBSth0.110.1164.2964.290.030.03
Arkansas St.SB0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Georgia St.SB0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.110.1125.9325.93-0.05-0.05
DavidsonA100.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
PittsburghACC0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
IPFWSum0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.100.1027.5927.59-0.05-0.05
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
IndianaB100.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
ElonCAA0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
UABCUSA0.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
RiceCUSA0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
West VirginiaB120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0821.4321.43-0.04-0.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0811.1111.11-0.06-0.06
BaylorB120.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
RadfordBSth0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.070.0744.1244.12-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
RutgersB100.070.0719.3519.35-0.04-0.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
NJITASun0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
UCFAmer0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0557.6957.690.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
HarvardIvy0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
MissouriSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0562.8662.860.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.04-0.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
UTSACUSA0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
ArkansasSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
AuburnSEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0572.4172.410.020.02
DukeACC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
George MasonA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
MontanaBSky0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Portland St.BSky0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
TulaneAmer0.050.0535.2935.29-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0522.8622.86-0.03-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Green BayHorz0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
KansasB120.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
Kansas St.B120.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
OklahomaB120.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
WashingtonP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Michigan St.B100.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
MichiganB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
MarylandB100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
NorthwesternB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
PurdueB100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
WisconsinB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.030.033.453.45-0.03-0.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0324.2424.24-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0379.3179.310.020.02
HartfordAE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
UC DavisBW0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
USCP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
StanfordP120.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.020.0224.2424.24-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
MinnesotaB100.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00