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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Samford

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:170.0
Current RPI:170
Expected SOS:202
Current SOS:202
Current Record:17-15
Expected Record:17-15
Current Conf Record:10-11
Expected Conf Record:10-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-2
Current OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:103
Expected OOC SOS:204



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-15170.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Samford.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14San Diego (205.0)WCCA65-83W100%0.0
11-16New Mexico St. (59.0)WACA58-48L0%0.0
11-21Campbell (246.0)BSthA53-66W100%0.0
11-23Cincinnati (12.0)AmerA70-55L0%0.0
11-26Bethune Cookman (346.0)MEACH93-65W100%0.0
11-27Nicholls St. (252.0)SlndH103-106L0%0.0
11-29Saint Louis (238.0)A10A64-68W100%0.0
12-4Jacksonville St. (149.0)OVCH81-77W100%0.0
12-16South Alabama (231.0)SBA79-82W100%0.0
12-19Florida St. (14.0)ACCA76-68L0%0.0
12-22Florida A&M (349.0)MEACH83-63W100%0.0
12-31UNC Greensboro (95.0)SCA62-73W100%0.0
1-2Western Carolina (271.0)SCA65-70W100%0.0
1-5Furman (96.0)SCH73-83L0%0.0
1-8Wofford (190.0)SCH91-89W100%0.0
1-11Mercer (192.0)SCH65-68L0%0.0
1-14The Citadel (282.0)SCA90-98W100%0.0
1-21Chattanooga (139.0)SCA82-78L0%0.0
1-25East Tennessee St. (55.0)SCH86-96L0%0.0
1-28VMI (329.0)SCA67-69W100%0.0
2-2Western Carolina (271.0)SCH82-63W100%0.0
2-4UNC Greensboro (95.0)SCH75-81L0%0.0
2-9Wofford (190.0)SCA131-127L0%0.0
2-11Furman (96.0)SCA90-73L0%0.0
2-15East Tennessee St. (55.0)SCA79-77L0%0.0
2-18VMI (329.0)SCH80-61W100%0.0
2-22Chattanooga (139.0)SCH72-68W100%0.0
2-25The Citadel (282.0)SCH96-102L0%0.0
2-27Mercer (192.0)SCA88-79L0%0.0
3-3VMI (329.0)SCN79-61W100%0.0
3-4Furman (96.0)SCN63-67W100%0.0
3-5East Tennessee St. (55.0)SCN81-72L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Samford's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Samford's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Samford.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
SamfordSC26.6126.6155.0655.062.692.69
East Tennessee St.SC5.745.7475.8675.862.972.97
VMISC5.645.6416.0016.00-3.84-3.84
FurmanSC5.635.6362.9662.961.461.46
UNC GreensboroSC4.304.3072.4172.411.931.93
The CitadelSC4.244.2428.5728.57-1.82-1.82
WoffordSC4.224.2242.8642.86-0.60-0.60
MercerSC4.194.1939.2939.29-0.90-0.90
ChattanoogaSC4.194.1959.2659.260.780.78
Western CarolinaSC4.174.1725.0025.00-2.08-2.08
Bethune CookmanMEAC1.701.7027.5927.59-0.76-0.76
CampbellBSth1.701.7046.6746.67-0.11-0.11
Nicholls St.Slnd1.661.6634.6234.62-0.51-0.51
New Mexico St.WAC1.641.6482.7682.761.081.08
San DiegoWCC1.641.6441.3841.38-0.28-0.28
Jacksonville St.OVC1.621.6258.0658.060.260.26
Florida A&MMEAC1.611.6118.5218.52-1.02-1.02
Florida St.ACC1.591.5975.0075.000.800.80
CincinnatiAmer1.561.5684.8584.851.091.09
Saint LouisA101.561.5637.5037.50-0.39-0.39
South AlabamaSB1.561.5641.3841.38-0.27-0.27
PresbyterianBSth0.340.3410.7110.71-0.27-0.27
UNC AshevilleBSth0.260.2670.0070.000.100.10
Gardner WebbBSth0.210.2153.3353.330.010.01
RadfordBSth0.210.2140.0040.00-0.04-0.04
DaytonA100.200.2076.6776.670.110.11
WinthropBSth0.200.2080.0080.000.120.12
Virginia TechACC0.180.1868.7568.750.070.07
LibertyBSth0.180.1855.1755.170.020.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.160.1631.0331.03-0.06-0.06
Kennesaw St.ASun0.160.1640.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.160.1645.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.160.1632.1432.14-0.06-0.06
StetsonASun0.160.1627.5927.59-0.07-0.07
High PointBSth0.150.1542.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
West VirginiaB120.140.1476.4776.470.070.07
Georgia SouthernSB0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.130.1373.3373.330.060.06
MarshallCUSA0.130.1355.8855.880.020.02
NavyPat0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.130.133.333.33-0.12-0.12
Savannah St.MEAC0.130.1340.7440.74-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Morehead St.OVC0.120.1242.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.110.1125.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Delaware St.MEAC0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
RichmondA100.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Arkansas St.SB0.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.100.1022.5822.58-0.06-0.06
College of CharlestonCAA0.100.1072.7372.730.050.05
East CarolinaAmer0.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.100.1010.3410.34-0.08-0.08
USC UpstateASun0.100.1046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
South FloridaAmer0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
ClemsonACC0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
George MasonA100.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
La SalleA100.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.100.1084.3884.380.070.07
DetroitHorz0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
FordhamA100.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
TulsaAmer0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Arizona St.P120.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0867.8667.860.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
MichiganB100.080.0868.5768.570.030.03
PortlandWCC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
UABCUSA0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
UMKCWAC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
ColgatePat0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
TCUB120.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
BYUWCC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
DavidsonA100.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
FloridaSEC0.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
Georgia TechACC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Iowa St.B120.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.070.0744.4444.44-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
BelmontOVC0.070.0777.7877.780.040.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0729.4129.41-0.03-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
DuquesneA100.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
Notre DameACC0.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
TempleAmer0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.070.0788.2488.240.050.05
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0632.0032.00-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0636.0036.00-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
AuburnSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0596.9796.970.050.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Little RockSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
PacificWCC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
SeattleWAC0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
TroySB0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
UMBCAE0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.050.0584.8584.850.040.04
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.050.0577.1477.140.030.03
St. BonaventureA100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
HoustonAmer0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
TulaneAmer0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Texas TechB120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
DenverSum0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
MississippiSEC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
St. John'sBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0318.5218.52-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
UNLVMWC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
USCP120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
IllinoisB100.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
IonaMAAC0.020.0264.7164.710.010.01
Kansas St.B120.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.020.0212.9012.90-0.02-0.02
SyracuseACC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
VCUA100.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
AlbanyAE0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.020.0239.2939.29-0.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
MemphisAmer0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Penn St.B100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
XavierBE0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01