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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Samford

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:305.0
Current RPI:305
Expected SOS:332
Current SOS:332
Current Record:12-19
Expected Record:12-19
Current Conf Record:6-13
Expected Conf Record:6-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-10
Current OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:248
Expected OOC SOS:336



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-19305.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Samford.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Purdue (55.0)B10A80-40L0%0.0
11-16Pittsburgh (76.0)ACCA63-56L0%0.0
11-19Austin Peay (318.0)OVCH68-67W100%0.0
11-22Cal St. Northridge (282.0)BWN79-72L0%0.0
11-23UMKC (295.0)WACN55-64W100%0.0
11-26Kennesaw St. (319.0)ASunA84-71L0%0.0
11-28Louisiana Tech (58.0)CUSAA77-64L0%0.0
12-1Jacksonville (338.0)ASunH76-70W100%0.0
12-4VMI (286.0)SCH66-88L0%0.0
12-6Furman (293.0)SCA74-64L0%0.0
12-14Wake Forest (150.0)ACCA86-68L0%0.0
12-16Presbyterian (315.0)BSthA71-81W100%0.0
12-21Louisiana Monroe (132.0)SBH64-50W100%0.0
12-28Campbell (323.0)BSthH65-56W100%0.0
1-3Wofford (47.0)SCH65-68L0%0.0
1-5East Tennessee St. (192.0)SCH74-76L0%0.0
1-8The Citadel (327.0)SCA77-67L0%0.0
1-10Wofford (47.0)SCA72-62L0%0.0
1-15Chattanooga (112.0)SCH76-82L0%0.0
1-17Mercer (212.0)SCA80-56L0%0.0
1-22UNC Greensboro (309.0)SCH89-78W100%0.0
1-24Western Carolina (220.0)SCH78-72W100%0.0
1-31Furman (293.0)SCH68-58W100%0.0
2-5Western Carolina (220.0)SCA72-76W100%0.0
2-7East Tennessee St. (192.0)SCA68-71W100%0.0
2-12The Citadel (327.0)SCH65-66L0%0.0
2-14Chattanooga (112.0)SCA79-72L0%0.0
2-21Mercer (212.0)SCH61-62L0%0.0
2-26UNC Greensboro (309.0)SCA81-67L0%0.0
2-28VMI (286.0)SCA69-80W100%0.0
3-6UNC Greensboro (309.0)SCN81-76L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Samford's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Samford's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Samford.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
SamfordSC26.4426.4438.8538.85-5.90-5.90
UNC GreensboroSC5.795.7922.2222.22-3.22-3.22
WoffordSC4.384.3880.0080.002.632.63
FurmanSC4.374.3727.5927.59-1.96-1.96
MercerSC4.294.2948.2848.28-0.15-0.15
Western CarolinaSC4.264.2646.4346.43-0.30-0.30
VMISC4.264.2630.7730.77-1.64-1.64
The CitadelSC4.254.2524.0024.00-2.21-2.21
ChattanoogaSC4.234.2364.2964.291.211.21
East Tennessee St.SC4.204.2050.0050.000.000.00
PresbyterianBSth1.821.8222.2222.22-1.01-1.01
Kennesaw St.ASun1.771.7724.1424.14-0.92-0.92
CampbellBSth1.671.6725.0025.00-0.84-0.84
JacksonvilleASun1.671.6725.0025.00-0.83-0.83
Louisiana TechCUSA1.641.6474.1974.190.790.79
PittsburghACC1.641.6454.8454.840.160.16
Wake ForestACC1.641.6438.7138.71-0.37-0.37
Austin PeayOVC1.611.6122.2222.22-0.90-0.90
Cal St. NorthridgeBW1.611.6120.0020.00-0.97-0.97
Louisiana MonroeSB1.611.6160.7160.710.350.35
PurdueB101.611.6162.5062.500.400.40
UMKCWAC1.611.6140.0040.00-0.32-0.32
North Carolina St.ACC0.230.2360.6160.610.050.05
Virginia TechACC0.220.2233.3333.33-0.07-0.07
UNC AshevilleBSth0.220.2242.8642.86-0.03-0.03
LipscombASun0.220.2239.2939.29-0.05-0.05
Charleston SouthernBSth0.220.2259.2659.260.040.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.220.2253.3353.330.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.210.2165.5265.520.070.07
DukeACC0.210.2187.8887.880.160.16
LongwoodBSth0.190.1928.1228.12-0.09-0.09
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.190.1968.9768.970.070.07
High PointBSth0.190.1967.8667.860.070.07
MinnesotaB100.180.1853.1253.120.010.01
WinthropBSth0.170.1755.1755.170.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.170.1735.7135.71-0.05-0.05
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.170.1756.6756.670.020.02
LibertyBSth0.170.1714.2914.29-0.12-0.12
Northern KentuckyASun0.160.1639.2939.29-0.03-0.03
North FloridaASun0.160.1664.5264.520.050.05
USC UpstateASun0.160.1663.3363.330.040.04
UABCUSA0.160.1654.5554.550.010.01
IndianaB100.150.1560.6160.610.030.03
Morehead St.OVC0.140.1446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.140.1430.0030.00-0.06-0.06
College of CharlestonCAA0.140.1427.2727.27-0.06-0.06
Appalachian St.SB0.140.1441.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.140.1451.5251.520.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.130.1327.5927.59-0.06-0.06
North CarolinaACC0.130.1368.5768.570.050.05
UC DavisBW0.130.1379.3179.310.080.08
SyracuseACC0.130.1358.0658.060.020.02
NavyPat0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
StetsonASun0.110.1121.4321.43-0.06-0.06
West VirginiaB120.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
Arkansas Little RockSB0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
ElonCAA0.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.110.1117.2417.24-0.07-0.07
GeorgiaSEC0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
IllinoisB100.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.100.1052.9452.940.010.01
SeattleWAC0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
WisconsinB100.100.1091.1891.180.080.08
RiceCUSA0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
LouisvilleACC0.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0960.7160.710.020.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.0957.1457.140.010.01
RadfordBSth0.090.0962.0762.070.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0938.4638.46-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.080.0829.6329.63-0.03-0.03
Michigan St.B100.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0867.8667.860.030.03
South AlabamaSB0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
MarylandB100.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
FloridaSEC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
ButlerBE0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
East CarolinaAmer0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
HawaiiBW0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Ohio St.B100.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
South DakotaSum0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
VirginiaACC0.080.0890.6290.620.060.06
Notre DameACC0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
Air ForceMWC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
George WashingtonA100.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
MaristMAAC0.060.0621.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0675.8675.860.030.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
VCUA100.060.0674.2974.290.030.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0610.3410.34-0.04-0.04
Texas St.SB0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0586.6786.670.040.04
AmericanPat0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0555.5655.560.010.01
IPFWSum0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
DartmouthIvy0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
PacificWCC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
TCUB120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
UC IrvineBW0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Miami FLACC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0526.9226.92-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0572.4172.410.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
UTSACUSA0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Penn St.B100.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
RutgersB100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
BrownIvy0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
UMBCAE0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0358.3358.330.000.00
Iowa St.B120.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
BryantNEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
BucknellPat0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
RichmondA100.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
TempleAmer0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.020.000.00-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
IUPUISum0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00