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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Pittsburgh

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:39.0
Current RPI:39
Expected SOS:59
Current SOS:59
Current Record:25-9
Expected Record:25-9
Current Conf Record:13-8
Expected Conf Record:13-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:11-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC RPI:40
Expected OOC SOS:216



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-939.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Pittsburgh.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Savannah St. (273.0)MEACH88-55W100%0.0
11-12Fresno St. (117.0)MWCH75-54W100%0.0
11-17Howard (323.0)MEACH84-52W100%0.0
11-20Lehigh (236.0)PatH77-58W100%0.0
11-25Texas Tech (121.0)B12N53-76W100%0.0
11-26Stanford (41.0)P12N67-88W100%0.0
11-30Duquesne (187.0)A10N84-67W100%0.0
12-3Penn St. (114.0)B10H78-69W100%0.0
12-6Loyola Marymount (179.0)WCCH85-68W100%0.0
12-14Youngstown St. (237.0)HorzH91-73W100%0.0
12-17Cincinnati (21.0)AmerN43-44L0%0.0
12-21Cal Poly (208.0)BWH73-56W100%0.0
12-31Albany (185.0)AEH58-46W100%0.0
1-4North Carolina St. (55.0)ACCA62-74W100%0.0
1-6Maryland (78.0)ACCH79-59W100%0.0
1-11Wake Forest (113.0)ACCH80-65W100%0.0
1-14Georgia Tech (157.0)ACCA74-81W100%0.0
1-18Syracuse (16.0)ACCA59-54L0%0.0
1-21Clemson (79.0)ACCH76-43W100%0.0
1-25Maryland (78.0)ACCA79-83W100%0.0
1-27Duke (9.0)ACCH65-80L0%0.0
2-2Virginia (8.0)ACCH45-48L0%0.0
2-5Miami FL (110.0)ACCA55-59W100%0.0
2-8Virginia Tech (246.0)ACCH62-57W100%0.0
2-12Syracuse (16.0)ACCH56-58L0%0.0
2-15North Carolina (25.0)ACCA75-71L0%0.0
2-23Florida St. (54.0)ACCH66-71L0%0.0
2-26Boston College (207.0)ACCA59-66W100%0.0
3-1Notre Dame (136.0)ACCA81-85W100%0.0
3-3North Carolina St. (55.0)ACCH67-74L0%0.0
3-8Clemson (79.0)ACCA78-83W100%0.0
3-13Wake Forest (113.0)ACCN84-55W100%0.0
3-14North Carolina (25.0)ACCN75-80W100%0.0
3-15Virginia (8.0)ACCN51-48L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Pittsburgh's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Pittsburgh's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Pittsburgh.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
PittsburghACC26.1026.1068.9068.909.879.87
North Carolina St.ACC3.603.6062.5062.500.900.90
Wake ForestACC3.553.5554.8454.840.340.34
VirginiaACC3.543.5481.2581.252.212.21
ClemsonACC3.503.5066.6766.671.171.17
North CarolinaACC3.503.5073.3373.331.641.64
MarylandACC3.483.4855.1755.170.360.36
SyracuseACC3.483.4883.3383.332.322.32
DukeACC2.222.2275.7675.761.141.14
Florida St.ACC2.172.1758.0658.060.350.35
Miami FLACC2.152.1553.1253.120.130.13
Georgia TechACC2.112.1150.0050.000.000.00
Notre DameACC2.102.1048.3948.39-0.07-0.07
Virginia TechACC2.082.0830.0030.00-0.83-0.83
Boston CollegeACC2.062.0623.3323.33-1.10-1.10
Cal PolyBW1.541.5437.9337.93-0.37-0.37
Savannah St.MEAC1.521.5237.9337.93-0.37-0.37
DuquesneA101.521.5242.8642.86-0.22-0.22
CincinnatiAmer1.511.5181.2581.250.950.95
AlbanyAE1.501.5058.0658.060.240.24
Penn St.B101.501.5048.3948.39-0.05-0.05
Fresno St.MWC1.501.5050.0050.000.000.00
HowardMEAC1.501.5020.0020.00-0.90-0.90
Loyola MarymountWCC1.501.5040.0040.00-0.30-0.30
StanfordP121.501.5065.6265.620.470.47
LehighPat1.471.4745.1645.16-0.14-0.14
Texas TechB121.471.4745.1645.16-0.14-0.14
Youngstown St.Horz1.471.4742.8642.86-0.21-0.21
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.210.2183.8783.870.140.14
Norfolk St.MEAC0.160.1653.3353.330.010.01
MinnesotaB100.160.1659.3859.380.030.03
ConnecticutAmer0.160.1676.4776.470.080.08
ColgatePat0.160.1640.0040.00-0.03-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.160.1637.9337.93-0.04-0.04
DavidsonSC0.160.1661.2961.290.040.04
MassachusettsA100.140.1475.0075.000.070.07
RichmondA100.140.1457.5857.580.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.140.1425.0025.00-0.07-0.07
VCUA100.140.1476.4776.470.070.07
Northern IowaMVC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
USCP120.140.1432.2632.26-0.05-0.05
HoustonAmer0.140.1451.5251.520.000.00
UCFAmer0.140.1437.9337.93-0.03-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.130.1362.5062.500.030.03
OaklandHorz0.120.1235.4835.48-0.04-0.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.120.1225.8125.81-0.06-0.06
FordhamA100.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
UMBCAE0.120.1227.5927.59-0.05-0.05
St. John'sBE0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
BaylorB120.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
Ohio St.B100.120.1273.5373.530.050.05
Long Beach St.BW0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.120.1257.1457.140.020.02
Michigan St.B100.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
HamptonMEAC0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
IndianaB100.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
CaliforniaP120.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
VMIBSth0.110.1155.5655.560.010.01
BucknellPat0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
ArizonaP120.110.1188.2488.240.090.09
KansasB120.110.1172.7372.730.050.05
Arizona St.P120.110.1165.6265.620.040.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.100.1016.6716.67-0.07-0.07
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
La SalleA100.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.100.1017.8617.86-0.06-0.06
PacificWCC0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
George WashingtonA100.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
West VirginiaB120.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.090.0936.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Green BayHorz0.090.0977.7877.780.050.05
UMass LowellAE0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
BYUWCC0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
Boston UniversityPat0.090.0970.5970.590.040.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
BinghamtonAE0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
TexasB120.090.0969.7069.700.040.04
Appalachian St.SC0.090.0919.2319.23-0.06-0.06
VermontAE0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
LouisvilleAmer0.090.0985.2985.290.060.06
NebraskaB100.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
TempleAmer0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
MichiganB100.090.0975.7675.760.050.05
NavyPat0.090.0927.5927.59-0.04-0.04
NorthwesternB100.090.0942.4242.42-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
SMUAmer0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.070.0767.8667.860.030.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
NevadaMWC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.070.0717.2417.24-0.05-0.05
NJITind0.070.0736.0036.00-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
UC DavisBW0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
FloridaSEC0.070.0794.1294.120.060.06
Air ForceMWC0.070.0735.7135.71-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.070.0767.6567.650.030.03
UtahP120.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0713.7913.79-0.05-0.05
New MexicoMWC0.070.0781.8281.820.040.04
Oregon St.P120.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
AmericanPat0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
AuburnSEC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.070.0725.9325.93-0.03-0.03
PurdueB100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.070.073.703.70-0.06-0.06
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
StetsonASun0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Stony BrookAE0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
WashingtonP120.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
IllinoisB100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0735.7135.71-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.070.0713.3313.33-0.05-0.05
XavierBE0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Washington St.P120.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
WisconsinB100.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
CampbellBSth0.070.0732.1432.14-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaCUSA0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
George MasonA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
UICHorz0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
Wright St.Horz0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
North FloridaASun0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0546.1546.15-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
DelawareCAA0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Boise St.MWC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
HarvardIvy0.050.0586.2186.210.030.03
PepperdineWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
TulsaCUSA0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
UNLVMWC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
OregonP120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
DrakeMVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.03-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
BryantNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
HartfordAE0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
High PointBSth0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
IowaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Kansas St.B120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
LafayettePat0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
OklahomaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
RiderMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0541.1841.18-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.050.0555.1755.170.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0523.3323.33-0.02-0.02
VillanovaBE0.050.0587.5087.500.030.03
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
MississippiSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.040.0438.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.040.0470.9770.970.020.02
RutgersAmer0.040.0434.3834.38-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.040.0437.5037.50-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.040.0413.7913.79-0.03-0.03
TulaneCUSA0.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.040.0462.5062.500.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.040.0435.4835.48-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.040.0466.6766.670.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.040.0461.2961.290.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.020.0210.7110.71-0.02-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Seton HallBE0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
ToledoMAC0.020.0281.2581.250.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
WinthropBSth0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
BrownIvy0.020.0251.8551.850.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.020.0224.0024.00-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.020.0214.8114.81-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
LSUSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0278.5778.570.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.020.0270.3770.370.010.01
SienaMAAC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
YaleIvy0.020.0251.8551.850.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
DenverSum0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
East Tennessee St.ASun0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Georgia SouthernSC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
ElonSC0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00