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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Pittsburgh

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:53.0
Current RPI:53
Expected SOS:29
Current SOS:29
Current Record:20-11
Expected Record:20-11
Current Conf Record:10-10
Expected Conf Record:10-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:10-1
Expected OOC Record:10-1
Expected OOC RPI:51
Expected OOC SOS:190



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-1153.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Pittsburgh.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-20Detroit (204.0)HorzH95-79W100%0.0
11-25Cornell (244.0)IvyH93-49W100%0.0
11-28Kent St. (124.0)MACH85-76W100%0.0
12-1Purdue (15.0)B10H59-72L0%0.0
12-4Duquesne (162.0)A10N75-96W100%0.0
12-6Central Arkansas (339.0)SlndH100-47W100%0.0
12-11Eastern Washington (233.0)BSkyH84-51W100%0.0
12-13Morehead St. (127.0)OVCH72-62W100%0.0
12-20Davidson (64.0)A10N69-94W100%0.0
12-23Western Carolina (166.0)SCH79-73W100%0.0
12-30Syracuse (72.0)ACCH72-61W100%0.0
1-2Maryland Eastern Shore (307.0)MEACH92-58W100%0.0
1-6Georgia Tech (69.0)ACCH89-84W100%0.0
1-9Notre Dame (31.0)ACCA82-86W100%0.0
1-14Louisville (17.0)ACCA59-41L0%0.0
1-16Boston College (250.0)ACCH84-61W100%0.0
1-19North Carolina St. (123.0)ACCH61-78L0%0.0
1-23Florida St. (82.0)ACCA72-74W100%0.0
1-27Clemson (131.0)ACCA73-60L0%0.0
1-31Virginia Tech (89.0)ACCH90-71W100%0.0
2-6Virginia (3.0)ACCH50-64L0%0.0
2-9Miami FL (9.0)ACCA65-63L0%0.0
2-14North Carolina (5.0)ACCA85-64L0%0.0
2-16Wake Forest (159.0)ACCH101-96W100%0.0
2-20Syracuse (72.0)ACCA52-66W100%0.0
2-24Louisville (17.0)ACCH60-67L0%0.0
2-28Duke (20.0)ACCH76-62W100%0.0
3-2Virginia Tech (89.0)ACCA65-61L0%0.0
3-5Georgia Tech (69.0)ACCA63-59L0%0.0
3-9Syracuse (72.0)ACCN72-71W100%0.0
3-10North Carolina (5.0)ACCN88-71L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Pittsburgh's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Pittsburgh's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Pittsburgh.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
PittsburghACC26.1426.1460.4760.475.475.47
SyracuseACC5.395.3965.5265.521.671.67
North CarolinaACC3.903.9081.2581.252.442.44
Georgia TechACC3.893.8958.0658.060.630.63
Virginia TechACC3.803.8058.0658.060.610.61
LouisvilleACC3.773.7772.4172.411.691.69
VirginiaACC2.362.3678.1278.121.331.33
Florida St.ACC2.312.3161.2961.290.520.52
DukeACC2.292.2971.8871.881.001.00
Boston CollegeACC2.292.2922.5822.58-1.25-1.25
Notre DameACC2.282.2867.7467.740.810.81
Miami FLACC2.282.2877.4277.421.251.25
North Carolina St.ACC2.262.2646.8846.88-0.14-0.14
ClemsonACC2.262.2653.3353.330.150.15
Wake ForestACC2.232.2336.6736.67-0.60-0.60
DavidsonA101.791.7963.3363.330.480.48
CornellIvy1.741.7434.6234.62-0.53-0.53
DuquesneA101.711.7150.0050.000.000.00
Western CarolinaSC1.691.6944.8344.83-0.18-0.18
Eastern WashingtonBSky1.671.6751.7251.720.060.06
Morehead St.OVC1.671.6760.7160.710.360.36
Central ArkansasSlnd1.611.6125.9325.93-0.78-0.78
DetroitHorz1.611.6150.0050.000.000.00
Kent St.MAC1.611.6160.0060.000.320.32
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC1.611.6130.0030.00-0.65-0.65
PurdueB101.611.6175.7675.760.830.83
WoffordSC0.230.2343.3343.33-0.03-0.03
VCUA100.200.2070.5970.590.080.08
St. BonaventureA100.180.1873.3373.330.080.08
Youngstown St.Horz0.160.1630.0030.00-0.06-0.06
Saint LouisA100.160.1634.3834.38-0.05-0.05
ColgatePat0.150.1541.3841.38-0.03-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.150.1537.9337.93-0.04-0.04
Michigan St.B100.150.1585.2985.290.110.11
HowardMEAC0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Green BayHorz0.130.1363.6463.640.040.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.130.1348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.130.1332.2632.26-0.05-0.05
East Tennessee St.SC0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
La SalleA100.130.1326.6726.67-0.06-0.06
George WashingtonA100.130.1369.7069.700.050.05
IndianaB100.130.1378.1278.120.070.07
Saint Joseph'sA100.130.1379.4179.410.070.07
CharlotteCUSA0.130.1342.4242.42-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.130.1345.4545.45-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
LehighPat0.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
WisconsinB100.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
MarylandB100.120.1275.0075.000.060.06
NorthwesternB100.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
MassachusettsA100.110.1143.7543.75-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.110.1143.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
SamfordSC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
RutgersB100.100.1019.3519.35-0.06-0.06
Jacksonville St.OVC0.100.1020.6920.69-0.06-0.06
RichmondA100.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
VMISC0.100.1022.2222.22-0.06-0.06
Montana St.BSky0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Penn St.B100.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
ElonCAA0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.100.1044.1244.12-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.100.1067.7467.740.030.03
TulaneAmer0.100.1035.2935.29-0.03-0.03
MichiganB100.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
ColumbiaIvy0.090.0965.5265.520.030.03
HarvardIvy0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.080.0877.7877.780.050.05
YaleIvy0.080.0877.7877.780.050.05
New OrleansSlnd0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
Northern KentuckyHorz0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Wright St.Horz0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0884.3884.380.060.06
IdahoBSky0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0810.7110.71-0.06-0.06
UMass LowellAE0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
MercerSC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
DaytonA100.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
UMBCAE0.080.0821.8821.88-0.04-0.04
LamarSlnd0.080.0826.9226.92-0.04-0.04
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
KentuckySEC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
St. John'sBE0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
ArkansasSEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
FloridaSEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Kansas St.B120.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
UCLAP120.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
West VirginiaB120.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
NebraskaB100.070.0747.0647.06-0.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
PennIvy0.060.0637.0437.04-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0687.1087.100.040.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0626.9226.92-0.03-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0620.8320.83-0.03-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.060.0663.3363.330.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.0610.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Murray St.OVC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0664.2964.290.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0680.0080.000.030.03
MonmouthMAAC0.060.0679.4179.410.030.03
UTSACUSA0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
SienaMAAC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
UCFAmer0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
The CitadelSC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0556.0056.000.010.01
AkronMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0579.3179.310.030.03
HartfordAE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
UMKCWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.050.0564.2964.290.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
BucknellPat0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
LSUSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0562.8662.860.010.01
UtahP120.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
ButlerBE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
Iowa St.B120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
RadfordBSth0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.050.0544.1244.12-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
William & MaryCAA0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
IUPUISum0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
TempleAmer0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
TexasB120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
AlbanyAE0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0382.1482.140.020.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0376.6776.670.020.02
TulsaAmer0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0311.1111.11-0.02-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
DenverSum0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
PacificWCC0.030.0323.0823.08-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
AmericanPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0357.6957.690.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
MaristMAAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0322.8622.86-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MaineAE0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
UC IrvineBW0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.030.0318.5218.52-0.02-0.02
Arizona St.P120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.020.0212.9012.90-0.02-0.02
BryantNEC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.020.0224.2424.24-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
VermontAE0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01