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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Pittsburgh

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:76.0
Current RPI:76
Expected SOS:43
Current SOS:43
Current Record:18-14
Expected Record:18-14
Current Conf Record:8-11
Expected Conf Record:8-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:10-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-1
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:47
Expected OOC SOS:117



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-1476.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Pittsburgh.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Niagara (287.0)MAACH78-45W100%0.0
11-16Samford (305.0)SCH63-56W100%0.0
11-21Hawaii (152.0)BWA74-70L0%0.0
11-25San Diego St. (26.0)MWCN74-57L0%0.0
11-26Kansas St. (100.0)B12N70-47W100%0.0
12-2Indiana (61.0)B10A81-69L0%0.0
12-5Duquesne (222.0)A10N76-62W100%0.0
12-13St. Bonaventure (121.0)A10H58-54W100%0.0
12-17Manhattan (168.0)MAACH65-56W100%0.0
12-20Oakland (155.0)HorzH81-77W100%0.0
12-23Holy Cross (200.0)PatH58-39W100%0.0
12-30Florida Gulf Coast (137.0)ASunH71-54W100%0.0
1-3North Carolina St. (39.0)ACCA68-50L0%0.0
1-6Boston College (165.0)ACCA60-61W100%0.0
1-10Clemson (106.0)ACCH62-71L0%0.0
1-14Florida St. (110.0)ACCH73-64W100%0.0
1-17Georgia Tech (153.0)ACCH70-65W100%0.0
1-19Duke (6.0)ACCA79-65L0%0.0
1-25Louisville (21.0)ACCH68-80L0%0.0
1-27Virginia Tech (228.0)ACCA70-67L0%0.0
1-31Notre Dame (16.0)ACCH76-72W100%0.0
2-2Bryant (189.0)NECH72-67W100%0.0
2-7Syracuse (69.0)ACCH83-77W100%0.0
2-11Louisville (21.0)ACCA69-56L0%0.0
2-14North Carolina (11.0)ACCH89-76W100%0.0
2-16Virginia (7.0)ACCA61-49L0%0.0
2-21Syracuse (69.0)ACCA61-65W100%0.0
2-24Boston College (165.0)ACCH71-65W100%0.0
3-1Wake Forest (150.0)ACCA69-66L0%0.0
3-4Miami FL (65.0)ACCH63-67L0%0.0
3-7Florida St. (110.0)ACCA61-52L0%0.0
3-11North Carolina St. (39.0)ACCN81-70L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Pittsburgh's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Pittsburgh's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Pittsburgh.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
PittsburghACC26.0326.0353.2353.231.681.68
Florida St.ACC3.683.6851.6151.610.120.12
Boston CollegeACC3.683.6843.3343.33-0.49-0.49
SyracuseACC3.663.6662.0762.070.880.88
North Carolina St.ACC3.663.6658.0658.060.590.59
LouisvilleACC3.653.6573.3373.331.701.70
North CarolinaACC2.292.2970.5970.590.940.94
Miami FLACC2.212.2162.5062.500.550.55
ClemsonACC2.212.2150.0050.000.000.00
VirginiaACC2.212.2190.3290.321.781.78
Virginia TechACC2.192.1931.2531.25-0.82-0.82
Notre DameACC2.192.1987.8887.881.661.66
DukeACC2.192.1987.5087.501.641.64
Wake ForestACC2.172.1738.7138.71-0.49-0.49
Georgia TechACC2.142.1440.0040.00-0.43-0.43
ManhattanMAAC1.661.6661.2961.290.380.38
St. BonaventureA101.641.6460.0060.000.330.33
NiagaraMAAC1.641.6427.5927.59-0.73-0.73
DuquesneA101.611.6137.9337.93-0.39-0.39
Holy CrossPat1.611.6146.4346.43-0.12-0.12
IndianaB101.611.6159.3859.380.300.30
OaklandHorz1.591.5948.2848.28-0.05-0.05
SamfordSC1.591.5940.0040.00-0.32-0.32
BryantNEC1.561.5653.3353.330.100.10
Florida Gulf CoastASun1.561.5667.8667.860.560.56
HawaiiBW1.561.5659.3859.380.290.29
Kansas St.B121.561.5648.3948.39-0.05-0.05
San Diego St.MWC1.561.5675.0075.000.780.78
MassachusettsA100.250.2553.1253.120.020.02
MaristMAAC0.220.2221.8821.88-0.13-0.13
Long Beach St.BW0.220.2245.1645.16-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.200.2075.7675.760.100.10
IonaMAAC0.180.1876.4776.470.090.09
West VirginiaB120.170.1771.8871.880.070.07
PurdueB100.170.1763.6463.640.050.05
JacksonvilleASun0.150.1524.1424.14-0.08-0.08
CanisiusMAAC0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
SienaMAAC0.150.1535.4835.48-0.04-0.04
DavidsonA100.150.1576.6776.670.080.08
Robert MorrisNEC0.150.1557.5857.580.020.02
RichmondA100.150.1559.3859.380.030.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.150.1522.5822.58-0.08-0.08
ProvidenceBE0.140.1466.6766.670.050.05
Loyola MDPat0.130.1336.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.130.1326.6726.67-0.06-0.06
George WashingtonA100.130.1363.6463.640.030.03
RiderMAAC0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
HarvardIvy0.130.1374.0774.070.060.06
Cleveland St.Horz0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.130.1347.0647.06-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.120.1222.5822.58-0.07-0.07
Louisiana TechCUSA0.120.1275.0075.000.060.06
UNC GreensboroSC0.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
MarylandB100.120.1281.8281.820.080.08
The CitadelSC0.120.1229.6329.63-0.05-0.05
WoffordSC0.120.1281.2581.250.080.08
BinghamtonAE0.120.1216.6716.67-0.08-0.08
RutgersB100.120.1231.2531.25-0.05-0.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.120.1224.1424.14-0.06-0.06
Michigan St.B100.120.1267.6567.650.040.04
Ohio St.B100.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
FloridaSEC0.120.1248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.110.1163.3363.330.030.03
BucknellPat0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
ColgatePat0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
ArmyPat0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.100.1073.3373.330.050.05
Sacred HeartNEC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
StetsonASun0.100.1021.4321.43-0.06-0.06
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
FurmanSC0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
MonmouthMAAC0.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
St. John'sBE0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
MinnesotaB100.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
IowaB100.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
New MexicoMWC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.090.0974.1974.190.050.05
Charleston SouthernBSth0.090.0959.2659.260.020.02
NebraskaB100.090.0941.9441.94-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.090.0925.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
NavyPat0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.080.0870.0070.000.030.03
St. Francis PANEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
George MasonA100.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
La SalleA100.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
VCUA100.080.0874.2974.290.040.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Iowa St.B120.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
UMass LowellAE0.070.0739.2939.29-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.070.0791.1891.180.060.06
MichiganB100.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
VMISC0.070.0732.1432.14-0.03-0.03
New HampshireAE0.070.0758.6258.620.010.01
Penn St.B100.070.0752.9452.940.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
TCUB120.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
NevadaMWC0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
NorthwesternB100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.070.0721.4321.43-0.04-0.04
NortheasternCAA0.070.0767.6567.650.030.03
TennesseeSEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
KentuckySEC0.070.07100.00100.000.070.07
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0781.2581.250.040.04
UC DavisBW0.070.0779.3179.310.040.04
UC IrvineBW0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
UC RiversideBW0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
WyomingMWC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
AmericanPat0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
LehighPat0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
LipscombASun0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
NJITind0.050.0556.0056.000.010.01
BrownIvy0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
Wright St.Horz0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.03-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
CornellIvy0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
VillanovaBE0.050.0594.1294.120.040.04
WagnerNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
UMKCWAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
AkronMAC0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
High PointBSth0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
BaylorB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
MaineAE0.050.0510.0010.00-0.04-0.04
MarshallCUSA0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
OklahomaB120.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
TexasB120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Texas TechB120.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
USCP120.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0564.7164.710.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
IllinoisB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
ButlerBE0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
XavierBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PennIvy0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
AuburnSEC0.030.0341.1841.18-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
IPFWSum0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
LSUSEC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
VermontAE0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
WinthropBSth0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
YaleIvy0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
BradleyMVC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.020.0226.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0210.3410.34-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
TulaneAmer0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.020.0227.2727.27-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0260.7160.710.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
ElonCAA0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
LamarSlnd0.020.0242.3142.31-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0218.7518.75-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0230.7730.77-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0290.9190.910.020.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.020.020.000.00-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.020.0281.2581.250.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
TempleAmer0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
UtahP120.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
WashingtonP120.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.020.0287.1087.100.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.020.000.00-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0275.8675.860.010.01
UABCUSA0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
UCLAP120.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00