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Through games of Jan 22, 2018.


Pittsburgh

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:188.1
Current RPI:161
Expected SOS:24
Current SOS:34
Current Record:8-12
Expected Record:10-21
Current Conf Record:0-7
Expected Conf Record:2-16
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-1
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:166
Expected OOC SOS:138



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-1698.00.01%
14-17112.60.05%
13-18134.50.70%
12-19151.53.94%
11-20168.514.34%
10-21183.330.28%
9-22196.534.66%
8-23208.416.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Pittsburgh.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Navy (219.9)PatA71-62L0%0.0
11-13Montana (98.2)BSkyH78-83L0%0.0
11-15UC Santa Barbara (107.8)BWH70-62W100%0.0
11-20Penn St. (115.5)B10N54-85L0%0.0
11-21Oklahoma St. (95.1)B12N67-73L0%0.0
11-25Lehigh (237.6)PatH80-68W100%0.0
11-28High Point (224.8)BSthH71-63W100%0.0
12-1Duquesne (212.7)A10N64-76W100%0.0
12-5Mount St. Mary's (257.7)NECH82-78W100%0.0
12-9West Virginia (18.9)B12H60-69L0%0.0
12-16McNeese St. (297.8)SlndH72-51W100%0.0
12-19Delaware St. (350.4)MEACH74-68W100%0.0
12-22Towson (89.7)CAAH63-59W100%0.0
12-30Miami FL (25.9)ACCH53-67L0%0.0
1-2Louisville (22.8)ACCA77-51L0%0.0
1-6Virginia Tech (71.4)ACCA81-67L0%0.0
1-10Duke (3.0)ACCH52-87L0%0.0
1-13Georgia Tech (146.9)ACCH54-69L0%0.0
1-16Syracuse (45.2)ACCA59-45L0%0.0
1-20Duke (3.0)ACCA81-54L0%0.0
1-24North Carolina St. (104.7)ACCH0-029%-6.2
1-27Syracuse (45.2)ACCH0-021%-9.0
1-31Miami FL (25.9)ACCA0-05%-18.4
2-3North Carolina (6.7)ACCA0-02%-22.5
2-8Clemson (14.3)ACCA0-05%-18.0
2-11Louisville (22.8)ACCH0-013%-12.3
2-13Boston College (100.1)ACCH0-034%-4.5
2-18Florida St. (39.8)ACCA0-04%-19.1
2-21Wake Forest (134.2)ACCH0-033%-4.8
2-24Virginia (3.8)ACCH0-05%-17.7
2-28Notre Dame (57.8)ACCA0-05%-18.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Pittsburgh's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Pittsburgh's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Pittsburgh.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
PittsburghACC26.4826.0530.2322.80-10.47-14.17
Miami FLACC2.763.7576.4768.471.461.39
LouisvilleACC2.563.7377.7868.201.421.36
SyracuseACC2.563.7366.6759.330.850.70
DukeACC5.073.7388.2484.233.882.55
VirginiaACC0.332.2794.7485.820.291.63
Virginia TechACC2.632.2568.4259.080.970.41
Florida St.ACC0.462.2573.6868.760.220.84
Boston CollegeACC0.202.2265.0054.230.060.19
Wake ForestACC0.262.2242.1139.56-0.04-0.46
North Carolina St.ACC0.262.1965.0055.850.080.26
North CarolinaACC0.132.1976.1971.720.070.95
Notre DameACC0.332.1963.1659.810.090.43
Georgia TechACC2.572.1750.0041.140.00-0.38
ClemsonACC0.142.1784.2172.440.090.97
NavyPat2.641.7257.8953.620.420.12
LehighPat2.631.7241.1846.40-0.46-0.12
Oklahoma St.B122.561.6966.6752.500.850.08
West VirginiaB122.571.6978.9575.241.490.85
Mount St. Mary'sNEC2.571.6744.4446.58-0.29-0.11
MontanaBSky2.631.6768.7572.160.990.74
Penn St.B102.571.6760.0054.340.510.14
UC Santa BarbaraBW2.571.6475.0072.211.290.73
DuquesneA102.561.6473.6860.031.210.33
Delaware St.MEAC2.561.640.008.72-2.56-1.35
High PointBSth2.501.6146.6751.19-0.170.04
McNeese St.Slnd2.501.6130.7732.54-0.96-0.56
TowsonCAA2.501.6166.6768.340.830.59
Loyola MDPat0.190.1922.2228.66-0.11-0.08
ColgatePat0.200.1950.0051.030.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.330.1952.9459.250.020.03
AmericanPat0.260.1725.0026.03-0.13-0.08
Boston UniversityPat0.200.1750.0053.280.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.320.1633.3340.35-0.11-0.03
BryantNEC0.190.169.5217.12-0.16-0.11
Coppin St.MEAC0.320.169.5217.86-0.26-0.10
George WashingtonA100.190.1645.0043.49-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.260.1660.0052.880.050.01
KansasB120.130.1684.2179.760.090.09
TexasB120.260.1665.0058.600.080.03
ArmyPat0.130.1461.1160.440.030.03
BucknellPat0.070.1461.9068.000.020.05
DelawareCAA0.130.1447.3743.00-0.01-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.140.1472.2268.930.060.05
Florida A&MMEAC0.200.1410.0019.62-0.16-0.08
St. Francis NYNEC0.190.1433.3335.21-0.06-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.190.1355.5657.250.020.02
La SalleA100.200.1340.0042.69-0.04-0.02
Michigan St.B100.130.1385.7183.760.090.09
Texas TechB120.060.1378.9571.750.040.06
Houston BaptistSlnd0.220.125.8819.39-0.19-0.07
Gardner WebbBSth0.150.1238.8940.78-0.03-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.1125.0031.44-0.04-0.04
PresbyterianBSth0.140.1127.7827.11-0.06-0.05
HawaiiBW0.140.1168.7564.010.050.03
Holy CrossPat0.130.1130.0032.58-0.05-0.04
LafayettePat0.130.1122.2227.46-0.07-0.05
Portland St.BSky0.210.1158.8263.210.040.03
ElonCAA0.200.1152.6351.090.010.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.1157.1460.410.010.02
Texas A&MSEC0.260.1168.4263.970.100.03
NebraskaB100.120.1163.6459.480.030.02
FloridaSEC0.130.1173.6871.600.060.05
Ohio St.B100.000.1081.8276.870.000.06
FordhamA100.130.1031.5829.03-0.05-0.04
BaylorB120.130.1057.8953.280.020.01
George MasonA100.190.1045.0041.29-0.02-0.02
Iowa St.B120.070.1057.8946.220.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.130.1075.0065.320.060.03
KentuckySEC0.130.1073.6868.040.060.04
MarylandB100.130.1066.6763.130.040.03
OklahomaB120.190.1077.7868.030.110.04
St. BonaventureA100.070.1066.6768.750.020.04
TCUB120.060.1075.0067.830.030.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.0952.9455.030.010.01
LamarSlnd0.060.0950.0054.900.000.01
LibertyBSth0.080.0950.0054.180.000.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.080.0952.6358.610.000.02
CampbellBSth0.140.0947.0647.41-0.01-0.00
RadfordBSth0.060.0957.8958.880.010.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.150.0947.0654.68-0.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.210.0966.6765.630.070.03
William & MaryCAA0.140.0964.7160.010.040.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.070.0917.6519.29-0.05-0.05
Montana St.BSky0.150.0950.0047.650.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.150.0916.6724.44-0.10-0.04
UC IrvineBW0.150.0930.0039.95-0.06-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.150.0917.6523.84-0.10-0.05
CharlotteCUSA0.140.0823.5325.63-0.08-0.04
The CitadelSC0.140.0818.7518.37-0.09-0.05
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0838.8935.38-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0840.0043.34-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.140.0868.7563.660.050.02
PrincetonIvy0.140.0852.9460.230.010.02
HofstraCAA0.070.0857.8959.500.010.02
PennIvy0.190.0864.7162.690.060.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.070.0852.3848.530.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.130.0823.5332.57-0.07-0.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.070.0830.0033.48-0.03-0.03
North FloridaASun0.140.0831.5835.15-0.05-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.140.0825.0028.02-0.07-0.04
Oral RobertsSum0.200.0830.0032.54-0.08-0.03
SienaMAAC0.140.0828.5729.93-0.06-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.130.0868.4254.080.050.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.130.0815.0020.28-0.09-0.05
OaklandHorz0.130.0861.9065.150.030.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0826.3230.45-0.03-0.03
MinnesotaB100.130.0863.6457.610.040.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0868.7567.610.000.03
ColumbiaIvy0.120.0820.0032.24-0.07-0.03
DavidsonA100.000.0858.8261.440.000.02
RichmondA100.000.0831.5834.350.00-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0820.0040.93-0.04-0.01
CornellIvy0.130.0833.3333.23-0.04-0.03
IowaB100.120.0847.6243.94-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.180.0855.0050.370.020.00
PurdueB100.070.0890.4888.390.050.06
Saint LouisA100.130.0847.3746.93-0.01-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.130.0855.0052.480.010.00
New OrleansSlnd0.090.0637.5045.24-0.02-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.090.0650.0051.390.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.090.067.1414.82-0.08-0.05
LongwoodBSth0.080.0616.6716.15-0.05-0.04
WinthropBSth0.080.0650.0059.430.000.01
HoustonAmer0.090.0678.9573.000.050.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.090.0683.3381.420.060.04
North TexasCUSA0.160.0644.4446.66-0.02-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.070.0623.5328.20-0.04-0.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.070.0656.2556.820.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.070.0629.4134.78-0.03-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.0611.1115.30-0.06-0.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0658.8257.130.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.070.0637.5033.77-0.02-0.02
UC DavisBW0.000.0658.8262.450.000.01
USCP120.140.0671.4368.300.060.02
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0627.7841.03-0.03-0.01
DrexelCAA0.070.0630.0030.97-0.03-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.0625.0028.250.00-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.070.0640.0042.51-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0663.1663.210.000.01
UMBCAE0.130.0655.5655.550.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.130.0622.2227.31-0.07-0.03
WagnerNEC0.070.0664.7164.560.020.02
MaristMAAC0.130.0521.0521.99-0.08-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.140.0510.5318.34-0.11-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.140.0550.0048.730.00-0.00
StanfordP120.070.0555.0050.330.010.00
WashingtonP120.140.0570.0061.460.050.01
YaleIvy0.140.0541.1847.61-0.02-0.00
DePaulBE0.060.0542.1134.30-0.01-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0566.6765.390.020.02
HamptonMEAC0.060.0525.0043.18-0.03-0.01
OhioMAC0.070.0547.0648.43-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0531.5836.430.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.130.0550.0052.500.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.120.0542.1139.93-0.02-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0572.2274.730.030.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.0583.3384.250.050.04
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0544.4446.01-0.01-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.000.0521.4326.340.00-0.03
IllinoisB100.000.0545.0043.620.00-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0583.3381.450.000.03
RutgersB100.000.0555.0046.650.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0563.1657.870.000.01
VCUA100.060.0560.0059.710.010.01
Wichita St.Amer0.070.0578.9577.380.040.03
WisconsinB100.060.0550.0046.270.00-0.00
AlbanyAE0.070.0571.4370.250.030.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.0568.4264.160.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.070.0572.2274.940.030.03
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0552.6347.380.00-0.00
DaytonA100.060.0547.3750.94-0.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0546.6747.00-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.130.0552.6347.500.01-0.00
FurmanSC0.130.0566.6768.540.040.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0570.0071.220.030.02
IonaMAAC0.070.0560.0064.130.010.01
MemphisAmer0.070.0565.0058.540.020.01
MichiganB100.000.0576.1970.800.000.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.130.050.0010.26-0.13-0.04
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0544.4450.080.000.00
Seton HallBE0.070.0575.0067.910.030.02
South DakotaSum0.130.0573.6872.400.060.02
SouthernSWAC0.130.0531.5840.82-0.05-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0547.3742.160.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.070.0566.6767.670.020.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.130.0545.0045.03-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.130.0566.6766.030.040.02
VMISC0.060.0525.0024.14-0.03-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.090.0352.9452.670.010.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0345.0049.280.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.090.037.6920.08-0.08-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.090.0327.7829.10-0.04-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0343.7549.110.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.090.0358.8262.830.020.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0380.0078.870.000.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.037.6923.240.00-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0338.8946.050.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.070.0366.6765.550.020.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0364.7166.850.000.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0343.7540.910.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0344.4450.31-0.010.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0325.0039.91-0.04-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.070.0363.1657.530.020.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.0356.2557.430.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0342.1132.46-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0377.7879.160.030.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0337.5037.67-0.02-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.060.0352.6351.680.000.00
HowardMEAC0.000.0310.5326.290.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.0342.1145.98-0.01-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0350.0050.860.000.00
MarquetteBE0.070.0368.4260.530.020.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0317.6534.760.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0378.9576.770.040.01
TroySB0.060.0338.8944.43-0.01-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.0361.1158.710.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.003.060.00-0.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0327.7838.120.00-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0345.0041.310.00-0.00
DenverSum0.060.0333.3336.47-0.02-0.01
DrakeMVC0.000.0355.0048.980.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0357.8966.270.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0316.6724.900.00-0.01
LipscombASun0.060.0352.9459.380.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.0361.1153.190.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0335.0031.820.00-0.01
SamfordSC0.000.0327.7832.670.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0361.1151.910.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0341.1838.470.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.000.0352.6351.740.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0336.8435.580.00-0.01
ArizonaP120.000.0380.0078.940.000.02
DetroitHorz0.060.0321.0525.99-0.04-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0366.6755.900.020.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.0336.8444.03-0.02-0.00
HartfordAE0.000.0350.0045.930.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0333.3333.760.00-0.01
MaineAE0.000.0310.5314.830.00-0.02
MassachusettsA100.000.0350.0046.810.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.060.0352.6345.860.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.060.0366.6763.150.020.01
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0323.5328.71-0.03-0.01
NJITASun0.060.0338.8942.58-0.01-0.00
PortlandWCC0.000.0327.7827.260.00-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.0370.0060.470.000.01
RiderMAAC0.060.0365.0065.330.020.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0350.0051.640.000.00
StetsonASun0.060.0333.3336.93-0.02-0.01
TulsaAmer0.070.0355.0053.330.010.00
UCFAmer0.060.0368.4260.830.020.01
UCLAP120.070.0365.0062.050.020.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0321.0524.760.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.070.0368.4269.260.020.01