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Through games of Nov 26, 2014.


Pittsburgh

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:75.6
Current RPI:113
Expected SOS:37
Current SOS:105
Current Record:3-2
Expected Record:18-13
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-1
Current OOC Record:3-2
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:87
Expected OOC SOS:109



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-611.00.05%
24-715.30.24%
23-820.71.24%
22-928.93.16%
21-1036.97.35%
20-1147.711.68%
19-1259.615.89%
18-1372.718.17%
17-1486.616.66%
16-15100.212.25%
15-16114.77.49%
14-17129.83.46%
13-18146.61.60%
12-19161.40.59%
11-20177.00.14%
10-21197.00.01%
9-22183.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Pittsburgh.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Niagara (272.7)MAACH78-45W100%0.0
11-16Samford (303.4)SCH63-56W100%0.0
11-21Hawaii (201.7)BWN74-70L0%0.0
11-25San Diego St. (17.7)MWCN74-57L0%0.0
11-26Kansas St. (111.8)B12N70-47W100%0.0
12-2Indiana (90.4)B10A0-042%-2.4
12-5Duquesne (146.7)A10N0-074%7.7
12-13St. Bonaventure (145.7)A10H0-083%11.3
12-17Manhattan (206.0)MAACH0-089%14.6
12-20Oakland (253.4)HorzH0-093%17.5
12-23Holy Cross (94.9)PatH0-081%10.5
12-30Florida Gulf Coast (82.3)ASunH0-076%8.3
1-3North Carolina St. (34.5)ACCA0-031%-5.8
1-6Boston College (157.1)ACCA0-062%3.8
1-10Clemson (126.8)ACCH0-071%6.7
1-14Florida St. (165.5)ACCH0-082%10.8
1-17Georgia Tech (105.4)ACCH0-074%7.8
1-19Duke (3.6)ACCA0-010%-15.4
1-25Louisville (13.1)ACCH0-033%-5.4
1-27Virginia Tech (224.2)ACCA0-075%8.0
1-31Notre Dame (62.1)ACCH0-050%0.1
2-2Bryant (212.6)NECH0-094%18.4
2-7Syracuse (33.7)ACCH0-047%-0.8
2-11Louisville (13.1)ACCA0-015%-12.6
2-14North Carolina (19.4)ACCH0-041%-2.7
2-16Virginia (15.6)ACCA0-020%-10.1
2-21Syracuse (33.7)ACCA0-025%-8.0
2-24Boston College (157.1)ACCH0-082%10.9
3-1Wake Forest (92.9)ACCA0-045%-1.6
3-4Miami FL (10.6)ACCH0-038%-3.6
3-7Florida St. (165.5)ACCA0-062%3.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Pittsburgh's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Pittsburgh's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Pittsburgh.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
PittsburghACC29.8826.0552.3853.851.422.01
SyracuseACC0.003.7980.0068.440.001.40
LouisvilleACC0.003.76100.0079.350.002.21
Florida St.ACC0.003.7640.0039.43-0.00-0.79
Boston CollegeACC0.003.7540.0038.80-0.00-0.84
Miami FLACC0.002.25100.0080.400.001.37
ClemsonACC0.002.2260.0051.530.000.07
Virginia TechACC0.002.2260.0036.360.00-0.61
Wake ForestACC0.002.2066.6751.470.000.06
Notre DameACC0.002.2083.3369.880.000.87
DukeACC0.002.20100.0083.390.001.47
North CarolinaACC0.002.2075.0067.730.000.78
VirginiaACC0.002.19100.0073.370.001.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.002.17100.0065.320.000.67
Georgia TechACC0.002.17100.0050.130.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.001.7225.0049.91-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.001.7075.0053.330.000.11
NiagaraMAAC10.001.7050.0031.250.00-0.64
DuquesneA100.001.67100.0055.390.000.18
Holy CrossPat0.001.66100.0067.890.000.60
IndianaB100.001.6680.0057.090.000.24
OaklandHorz0.001.6416.6727.12-0.00-0.75
SamfordSC10.001.6440.0036.21-2.00-0.45
BryantNEC0.001.6133.3348.06-0.00-0.06
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.001.6180.0073.460.000.76
HawaiiBW10.001.6166.6755.543.330.18
Kansas St.B1210.001.6160.0048.182.00-0.06
San Diego St.MWC10.001.6180.0084.006.001.10
MassachusettsA100.000.2783.3366.600.000.09
MaristMAAC0.710.2220.0033.15-0.43-0.08
Long Beach St.BW0.830.2225.0051.07-0.420.00
DaytonA100.000.2075.0071.150.000.08
CanisiusMAAC0.000.1750.0052.730.000.01
DavidsonA100.000.1766.6761.870.000.04
IonaMAAC0.000.1780.0079.380.000.10
Cal St. NorthridgeBW1.670.1733.3338.74-0.56-0.04
West VirginiaB120.000.16100.0069.720.000.06
ProvidenceBE0.000.16100.0066.690.000.05
PurdueB101.670.1683.3368.601.110.06
HarvardIvy0.000.1466.6773.440.000.07
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1420.0038.27-0.00-0.03
SienaMAAC0.000.1433.3361.50-0.000.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.830.1433.3330.11-0.28-0.06
FairfieldMAAC0.000.1440.0032.41-0.00-0.05
RichmondA100.000.1450.0064.050.000.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1425.0049.12-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.000.140.0022.97-0.00-0.07
Michigan St.B100.000.1375.0072.040.000.06
Ohio St.B100.000.13100.0074.750.000.07
The CitadelSC0.000.130.0028.78-0.00-0.06
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.1340.0033.60-0.00-0.04
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.120.0056.00-0.000.01
ArmyPat0.000.11100.0069.410.000.04
George WashingtonA100.000.1175.0069.280.000.04
JacksonvilleASun0.000.110.0025.58-0.00-0.06
ColgatePat0.000.1120.0039.02-0.00-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.000.1140.0031.26-0.00-0.04
North FloridaASun0.000.1140.0052.52-0.000.01
StetsonASun0.000.110.0030.90-0.00-0.04
Green BayHorz0.000.1175.0077.520.000.06
MonmouthMAAC0.000.1150.0052.150.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.1150.0055.700.000.01
RiderMAAC0.000.1150.0046.840.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC1.670.1120.0041.72-1.00-0.02
FurmanSC0.000.1125.0027.83-0.00-0.05
NebraskaB100.000.1175.0053.300.000.01
MarylandB100.000.11100.0071.860.000.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.1125.0036.66-0.00-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.110.0028.63-0.00-0.05
New MexicoMWC0.000.1160.0055.640.000.01
RutgersB100.000.1150.0024.520.00-0.05
IowaB100.000.1166.6765.830.000.03
St. John'sBE0.000.11100.0058.520.000.02
WoffordSC0.000.1180.0077.430.000.06
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.1080.0071.830.000.05
FloridaSEC0.000.1050.0064.920.000.03
MinnesotaB100.000.1050.0055.290.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0966.6751.210.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.090.0024.69-0.00-0.04
BucknellPat0.000.0933.3335.82-0.00-0.02
NavyPat0.000.0920.0029.93-0.00-0.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0925.0034.11-0.00-0.03
Saint LouisA100.000.0975.0046.370.00-0.01
FordhamA100.000.080.0026.01-0.00-0.04
George MasonA100.000.0820.0021.73-0.00-0.05
La SalleA100.000.08100.0056.620.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0860.0039.490.00-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0825.0046.16-0.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.0880.0073.080.000.04
HartfordAE1.670.0880.0051.801.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0814.2931.08-0.00-0.03
UMass LowellAE0.000.0860.0042.120.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0850.0042.970.00-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0833.3339.40-0.00-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0840.0048.44-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.000.0833.3345.71-0.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0860.0067.390.000.03
Penn St.B100.000.0883.3348.410.00-0.00
ArizonaP121.670.08100.0075.691.670.04
NevadaMWC0.000.0825.0043.39-0.00-0.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0875.0062.480.000.02
KentuckySEC0.000.08100.0089.070.000.06
NortheasternCAA0.000.0880.0066.690.000.03
Boise St.MWC0.000.0880.0062.960.000.02
VMISC0.000.0825.0036.44-0.00-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.000.080.0022.89-0.00-0.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0866.6753.550.000.01
MichiganB100.000.0875.0066.610.000.03
South FloridaAmer0.000.0875.0055.330.000.01
AmericanPat0.000.0666.6759.500.000.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0625.0053.31-0.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.000.0633.3335.63-0.00-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0625.0033.19-0.00-0.02
LafayettePat0.000.0660.0060.080.000.01
LehighPat0.000.0620.0042.40-0.00-0.01
LipscombASun0.000.060.0045.69-0.00-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0625.0039.50-0.00-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.710.0650.0058.990.000.01
UC DavisBW0.000.06100.0053.380.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.000.0633.3367.52-0.000.02
NJITind0.000.0620.0029.79-0.00-0.02
AlbanyAE0.000.0650.0063.440.000.02
BrownIvy0.000.0620.0038.01-0.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.710.0625.0035.38-0.36-0.02
OhioMAC0.000.0666.6751.430.000.00
BYUWCC0.830.0650.0067.000.000.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC1.550.0620.0038.42-0.93-0.01
High PointBSth0.710.0675.0055.980.360.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.06100.0060.350.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0625.0039.67-0.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0675.0064.180.000.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.060.0030.79-0.00-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.060.0036.14-0.00-0.02
DetroitHorz0.000.0660.0058.400.000.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0620.0031.23-0.00-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.060.0049.14-0.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0620.0034.26-0.00-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.060.0051.96-0.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0675.0055.290.000.01
WagnerNEC0.000.060.0045.08-0.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0666.6756.860.000.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0650.0040.550.00-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.050.0032.51-0.00-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0550.0027.510.00-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0560.0056.970.000.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0525.0045.71-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0583.3339.590.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0560.0066.190.000.02
ButlerBE0.000.05100.0071.480.000.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.050.0018.95-0.00-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0575.0069.010.000.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0520.0043.55-0.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0516.6739.87-0.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0540.0060.24-0.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0525.0047.86-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.000.05100.0068.200.000.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0566.6758.830.000.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.050.0023.00-0.00-0.03
MercerSC0.000.0533.3354.15-0.000.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0575.0051.700.000.00
WyomingMWC0.000.05100.0069.580.000.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.0533.3345.47-0.00-0.00
MaineAE0.000.050.0019.27-0.00-0.03
USCP120.000.0550.0028.760.00-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.05100.0079.750.000.03
CincinnatiAmer0.000.05100.0061.080.000.01
UMKCWAC1.670.0520.0042.29-1.00-0.01
BaylorB120.000.05100.0070.110.000.02
CaliforniaP120.000.0580.0070.250.000.02
CornellIvy0.000.0542.8640.94-0.00-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0516.6745.77-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.000.05100.0065.110.000.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0525.0031.71-0.00-0.02
KansasB120.000.0566.6759.280.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0550.0044.930.00-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.05100.0045.580.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.000.0575.0064.910.000.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.05100.0061.400.000.01
TCUB120.000.05100.0061.120.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0550.0044.110.00-0.01
TexasB120.000.05100.0080.270.000.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.050.0040.80-0.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.000.0575.0045.520.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.000.0566.6740.010.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0566.6747.140.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.000.05100.0077.100.000.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0525.0041.79-0.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.05100.0086.460.000.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.710.0316.6731.72-0.48-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0333.3354.73-0.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0035.41-0.00-0.01
XavierBE0.000.03100.0077.810.000.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.030.0030.94-0.00-0.01
IPFWSum0.000.0366.6762.950.000.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0350.0037.010.00-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0350.0032.470.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.03100.0053.810.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.030.0034.83-0.00-0.01
DelawareCAA0.000.030.0019.74-0.00-0.02
DenverSum0.000.0350.0060.810.000.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0052.420.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0360.0067.690.000.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0380.0046.930.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0333.3359.02-0.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0325.0048.11-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.030.0066.35-0.000.01
PennIvy0.000.030.0023.29-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0035.63-0.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0025.37-0.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.0325.0040.45-0.00-0.01
VermontAE0.000.0350.0065.840.000.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0366.6753.510.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0375.0056.120.000.00
YaleIvy0.000.0380.0070.280.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0360.0037.550.00-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.830.030.0030.92-0.83-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0333.3346.13-0.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.000.030.0034.56-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0018.42-0.00-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0340.0057.50-0.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0333.3357.92-0.000.00
LSUSEC0.000.0360.0055.990.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.0375.0049.940.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.000.030.0019.26-0.00-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0350.0051.520.000.00
UtahP120.830.0375.0073.450.420.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0360.0055.090.000.00
WashingtonP120.000.03100.0055.210.000.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0333.3353.30-0.000.00
BradleyMVC0.000.0350.0029.060.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0340.0053.46-0.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0027.64-0.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0320.0036.68-0.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.03100.0057.480.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0380.0074.900.000.01
ElonCAA0.000.0340.0039.53-0.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.03100.0061.350.000.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.0020.69-0.00-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0340.0046.02-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0360.0068.220.000.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0325.0036.41-0.00-0.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0320.0029.02-0.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0340.0026.51-0.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0015.65-0.00-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0350.0050.040.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.030.0036.91-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.030.0031.85-0.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0350.0047.220.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.03100.0077.900.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0325.0037.52-0.00-0.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0325.0046.64-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.000.0350.0065.300.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.030.0039.18-0.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.830.030.0016.41-0.83-0.02
StanfordP120.000.0380.0070.970.000.01
TempleAmer0.000.0360.0050.320.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0375.0068.260.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0366.6739.850.00-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0325.0052.61-0.000.00