Pittsburgh

Conference:	BE
Expected RPI:	44.0
Current RPI:	44
Expected SOS:	71
Current SOS:	71
Current Record:	24-8
Expected Record:	24-8
Current Conf Record:	12-7
Expected Conf Record:	12-7
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	5-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-0
Current OOC Record:	12-1
Expected OOC Record:	12-1
Expected OOC RPI:	58
Expected OOC SOS:	269

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
24-8	44.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Pittsburgh.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Mount St. Mary's (121.0)	NEC	H	80-48	W	100%
11-12	Fordham (228.0)	A10	H	86-51	W	100%
11-13	Lehigh (107.0)	Pat	H	78-53	W	100%
11-17	Oakland (152.0)	Sum	H	72-62	W	100%
11-21	Michigan (20.0)	B10	N	67-62	L	0%
11-23	Delaware (141.0)	CAA	N	85-59	W	100%
11-27	Howard (334.0)	MEAC	H	70-46	W	100%
12-1	Detroit (63.0)	Horz	H	74-61	W	100%
12-5	Duquesne (229.0)	A10	N	66-45	W	100%
12-8	North Florida (230.0)	ASun	H	89-47	W	100%
12-15	Bethune Cookman (277.0)	MEAC	H	89-40	W	100%
12-19	Delaware St. (263.0)	MEAC	H	71-43	W	100%
12-23	Kennesaw St. (341.0)	ASun	H	59-43	W	100%
12-31	Cincinnati (50.0)	BE	H	61-70	L	0%
1-5	Rutgers (109.0)	BE	A	67-62	L	0%
1-8	Georgetown (11.0)	BE	A	45-73	W	100%
1-12	Marquette (13.0)	BE	H	67-74	L	0%
1-16	Villanova (52.0)	BE	A	43-58	W	100%
1-19	Connecticut (49.0)	BE	H	69-61	W	100%
1-22	Providence (91.0)	BE	A	64-68	W	100%
1-26	DePaul (204.0)	BE	H	93-55	W	100%
1-28	Louisville (3.0)	BE	A	64-61	L	0%
2-2	Syracuse (14.0)	BE	H	65-55	W	100%
2-4	Seton Hall (138.0)	BE	H	56-46	W	100%
2-9	Cincinnati (50.0)	BE	A	52-62	W	100%
2-16	Marquette (13.0)	BE	A	79-69	L	0%
2-18	Notre Dame (35.0)	BE	H	42-51	L	0%
2-24	St. John's (96.0)	BE	A	47-63	W	100%
2-27	South Florida (156.0)	BE	H	64-44	W	100%
3-3	Villanova (52.0)	BE	H	73-64	W	100%
3-9	DePaul (204.0)	BE	A	66-81	W	100%
3-14	Syracuse (14.0)	BE	N	59-62	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Pittsburgh's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Pittsburgh's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Pittsburgh.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Pittsburgh	BE	26.03	26.03	71.43	71.43	11.16	11.16
Syracuse	BE	3.76	3.76	75.76	75.76	1.94	1.94
Villanova	BE	3.70	3.70	63.33	63.33	0.99	0.99
Cincinnati	BE	3.66	3.66	67.74	67.74	1.30	1.30
DePaul	BE	3.64	3.64	36.67	36.67	-0.97	-0.97
Marquette	BE	3.63	3.63	72.41	72.41	1.63	1.63
Georgetown	BE	2.29	2.29	83.33	83.33	1.52	1.52
Notre Dame	BE	2.27	2.27	72.73	72.73	1.03	1.03
Louisville	BE	2.23	2.23	84.85	84.85	1.56	1.56
St. John's	BE	2.22	2.22	53.33	53.33	0.15	0.15
Rutgers	BE	2.22	2.22	46.67	46.67	-0.15	-0.15
Seton Hall	BE	2.19	2.19	46.88	46.88	-0.14	-0.14
Providence	BE	2.19	2.19	56.67	56.67	0.29	0.29
South Florida	BE	2.17	2.17	40.00	40.00	-0.43	-0.43
Connecticut	BE	2.17	2.17	68.97	68.97	0.82	0.82
Delaware St.	MEAC	1.69	1.69	43.33	43.33	-0.23	-0.23
Howard	MEAC	1.69	1.69	21.43	21.43	-0.96	-0.96
Fordham	A10	1.67	1.67	23.33	23.33	-0.89	-0.89
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	1.64	1.64	38.71	38.71	-0.37	-0.37
North Florida	ASun	1.64	1.64	40.00	40.00	-0.33	-0.33
Delaware	CAA	1.64	1.64	59.38	59.38	0.31	0.31
Kennesaw St.	ASun	1.64	1.64	10.34	10.34	-1.30	-1.30
Detroit	Horz	1.63	1.63	62.07	62.07	0.39	0.39
Duquesne	A10	1.61	1.61	27.59	27.59	-0.72	-0.72
Lehigh	Pat	1.59	1.59	71.43	71.43	0.68	0.68
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	1.59	1.59	58.06	58.06	0.26	0.26
Michigan	B10	1.56	1.56	77.42	77.42	0.86	0.86
Oakland	Sum	1.56	1.56	48.28	48.28	-0.05	-0.05
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.23	0.23	7.14	7.14	-0.19	-0.19
Colgate	Pat	0.20	0.20	34.38	34.38	-0.06	-0.06
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.20	0.20	52.94	52.94	0.01	0.01
Temple	A10	0.19	0.19	71.88	71.88	0.09	0.09
Monmouth	NEC	0.19	0.19	32.26	32.26	-0.07	-0.07
Hampton	MEAC	0.15	0.15	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.15	0.15	68.75	68.75	0.06	0.06
Stetson	ASun	0.15	0.15	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.15	0.15	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.15	0.15	67.86	67.86	0.05	0.05
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.15	0.15	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Penn St.	B10	0.15	0.15	32.26	32.26	-0.05	-0.05
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.15	0.15	29.03	29.03	-0.06	-0.06
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.15	0.15	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
American	Pat	0.13	0.13	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.13	0.13	22.58	22.58	-0.07	-0.07
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.13	0.13	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.13	0.13	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.13	0.13	69.70	69.70	0.05	0.05
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.13	0.13	14.29	14.29	-0.09	-0.09
Fairfield	MAAC	0.13	0.13	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.13	0.13	20.69	20.69	-0.07	-0.07
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.13	0.13	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.13	0.13	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Wright St.	Horz	0.13	0.13	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Bryant	NEC	0.13	0.13	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
George Washington	A10	0.12	0.12	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
La Salle	A10	0.12	0.12	70.00	70.00	0.05	0.05
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.12	0.12	23.33	23.33	-0.07	-0.07
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.12	0.12	48.00	48.00	-0.00	-0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.12	0.12	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Marshall	CUSA	0.12	0.12	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Purdue	B10	0.12	0.12	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.12	0.12	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Lafayette	Pat	0.10	0.10	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.10	0.10	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Navy	Pat	0.10	0.10	23.33	23.33	-0.06	-0.06
Valparaiso	Horz	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.10	0.10	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Jacksonville	ASun	0.10	0.10	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Lipscomb	ASun	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Mercer	ASun	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.10	0.10	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.10	0.10	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.10	0.10	76.47	76.47	0.05	0.05
Central Florida	CUSA	0.10	0.10	62.07	62.07	0.02	0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.10	0.10	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Butler	A10	0.10	0.10	75.76	75.76	0.05	0.05
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.10	0.10	22.58	22.58	-0.06	-0.06
Michigan St.	B10	0.10	0.10	75.00	75.00	0.05	0.05
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.10	0.10	20.00	20.00	-0.06	-0.06
Rhode Island	A10	0.10	0.10	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
Wisconsin	B10	0.10	0.10	67.65	67.65	0.04	0.04
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.10	0.10	22.58	22.58	-0.05	-0.05
Towson	CAA	0.10	0.10	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Xavier	A10	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.10	0.10	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Indiana	B10	0.10	0.10	81.82	81.82	0.06	0.06
James Madison	CAA	0.10	0.10	58.82	58.82	0.02	0.02
Long Island	NEC	0.10	0.10	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.10	0.10	59.26	59.26	0.02	0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.09	0.09	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.09	0.09	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.08	0.08	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.08	0.08	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Charlotte	A10	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.08	0.08	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
IUPUI	Sum	0.08	0.08	13.33	13.33	-0.06	-0.06
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.08	0.08	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
West Virginia	B12	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.08	0.08	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.08	0.08	31.25	31.25	-0.03	-0.03
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.07	0.07	17.24	17.24	-0.05	-0.05
Northwestern	B10	0.07	0.07	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.07	0.07	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.07	0.07	85.29	85.29	0.05	0.05
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.07	0.07	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Kansas St.	B12	0.07	0.07	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
George Mason	CAA	0.07	0.07	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.07	0.07	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Western Kentucky	SB	0.07	0.07	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.07	0.07	19.35	19.35	-0.04	-0.04
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.07	0.07	28.12	28.12	-0.03	-0.03
Canisius	MAAC	0.07	0.07	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Army	Pat	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Bucknell	Pat	0.05	0.05	84.38	84.38	0.04	0.04
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Boston University	AE	0.05	0.05	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Western Illinois	Sum	0.05	0.05	71.43	71.43	0.02	0.02
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Georgia Southern	SC	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
New Orleans	ind	0.05	0.05	18.18	18.18	-0.03	-0.03
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
NC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.05	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Southern California	P12	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Maine	AE	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Stony Brook	AE	0.05	0.05	76.67	76.67	0.03	0.03
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Washington	P12	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.05	28.12	28.12	-0.02	-0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Binghamton	AE	0.05	0.05	6.90	6.90	-0.04	-0.04
Columbia	Ivy	0.05	0.05	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.05	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
UC Riverside	BW	0.05	0.05	14.29	14.29	-0.03	-0.03
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Brown	Ivy	0.05	0.05	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Florida International	SB	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Campbell	BSth	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	17.86	17.86	-0.03	-0.03
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.03	-0.03
Oregon	P12	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.05	84.38	84.38	0.03	0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.04	0.04	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.04	0.04	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
North Texas	SB	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Albany	AE	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Boise St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
New Hampshire	AE	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Vermont	AE	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.03	0.03	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Portland	WCC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Siena	MAAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Texas	B12	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
UCLA	P12	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Hartford	AE	0.02	0.02	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Kent St.	MAC	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.02	0.02	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Tulane	CUSA	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Georgia St.	CAA	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.02	0.02	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.02	0.02	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Samford	SC	0.02	0.02	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01