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Through games of Nov 21, 2014.


Pittsburgh

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:98.3
Current RPI:73
Expected SOS:25
Current SOS:86
Current Record:2-1
Expected Record:15-14
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-1
Current OOC Record:2-1
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:112
Expected OOC SOS:143



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-59.00.01%
23-69.50.02%
22-713.60.05%
21-820.00.32%
20-928.01.24%
19-1037.23.32%
18-1149.06.57%
17-1262.411.56%
16-1377.116.11%
15-1493.517.32%
14-15110.416.52%
13-16128.812.38%
12-17147.47.93%
11-18166.14.23%
10-19185.81.65%
9-20201.60.59%
8-21220.70.15%
7-22214.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Pittsburgh.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Niagara (288.1)MAACH78-45W100%0.0
11-16Samford (320.2)SCH63-56W100%0.0
11-21Hawaii (205.6)BWN74-70L0%0.0
12-2Indiana (64.5)B10A0-029%-6.7
12-5Duquesne (169.4)A10N0-068%5.5
12-13St. Bonaventure (157.3)A10H0-076%8.6
12-17Manhattan (151.2)MAACH0-077%8.7
12-20Oakland (241.9)HorzH0-087%13.3
12-23Holy Cross (115.9)PatH0-077%8.9
12-30Florida Gulf Coast (109.1)ASunH0-073%7.3
1-3North Carolina St. (59.1)ACCA0-031%-6.1
1-6Boston College (151.3)ACCA0-051%0.5
1-10Clemson (139.2)ACCH0-065%4.6
1-14Florida St. (86.5)ACCH0-057%2.1
1-17Georgia Tech (88.1)ACCH0-063%3.9
1-19Duke (2.7)ACCA0-05%-19.5
1-25Louisville (10.5)ACCH0-026%-7.7
1-27Virginia Tech (184.3)ACCA0-059%2.8
1-31Notre Dame (56.9)ACCH0-044%-1.9
2-2Bryant (177.9)NECH0-086%12.9
2-7Syracuse (24.9)ACCH0-037%-4.0
2-11Louisville (10.5)ACCA0-011%-14.9
2-14North Carolina (24.8)ACCH0-039%-3.4
2-16Virginia (12.4)ACCA0-013%-13.2
2-21Syracuse (24.9)ACCA0-018%-11.2
2-24Boston College (151.3)ACCH0-074%7.6
3-1Wake Forest (136.6)ACCA0-050%0.1
3-4Miami FL (18.8)ACCH0-038%-3.7
3-7Florida St. (86.5)ACCA0-034%-5.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Pittsburgh's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Pittsburgh's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Pittsburgh.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
PittsburghACC34.0326.0854.5545.893.09-2.14
SyracuseACC0.004.0675.0070.040.001.63
Florida St.ACC0.004.0350.0056.400.000.52
LouisvilleACC0.004.03100.0079.210.002.35
Boston CollegeACC0.004.0250.0042.010.00-0.64
Miami FLACC0.002.41100.0073.580.001.14
Virginia TechACC0.002.38100.0041.400.00-0.41
ClemsonACC0.002.3833.3345.30-0.00-0.22
Notre DameACC0.002.36100.0069.860.000.94
Wake ForestACC0.002.3650.0041.220.00-0.41
North CarolinaACC0.002.35100.0066.230.000.76
DukeACC0.002.35100.0086.090.001.70
VirginiaACC0.002.35100.0075.890.001.22
North Carolina St.ACC0.002.33100.0058.800.000.41
Georgia TechACC0.002.33100.0053.260.000.15
ManhattanMAAC0.001.840.0058.41-0.000.31
NiagaraMAAC16.671.82100.0029.8916.67-0.73
St. BonaventureA100.001.8250.0051.340.000.05
DuquesneA100.001.780.0052.51-0.000.09
Holy CrossPat0.001.78100.0062.080.000.43
IndianaB100.001.78100.0063.610.000.48
OaklandHorz0.001.750.0034.43-0.00-0.55
SamfordSC16.671.7550.0033.740.00-0.57
BryantNEC0.001.7250.0055.980.000.21
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.001.72100.0073.590.000.81
HawaiiBW16.671.7266.6752.805.560.10
MassachusettsA100.000.30100.0063.880.000.08
MaristMAAC0.000.210.0043.44-0.00-0.03
IonaMAAC0.000.1866.6766.940.000.06
CanisiusMAAC0.000.18100.0057.010.000.03
DavidsonA100.000.18100.0048.380.00-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.1833.3352.91-0.000.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.17100.0062.680.000.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.1533.3344.98-0.00-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.150.0027.11-0.00-0.07
DaytonA100.000.1566.6769.310.000.06
HarvardIvy0.000.1550.0066.890.000.05
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1533.3338.44-0.00-0.03
SienaMAAC0.000.1533.3358.87-0.000.03
FairfieldMAAC0.000.1533.3334.47-0.00-0.05
BinghamtonAE0.000.150.0039.15-0.00-0.03
RichmondA100.000.1550.0062.660.000.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1450.0054.170.000.01
The CitadelSC0.000.140.0027.74-0.00-0.06
Michigan St.B100.000.1466.6771.300.000.06
Ohio St.B100.000.14100.0073.590.000.07
PurdueB102.780.14100.0060.572.780.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.140.0054.32-0.000.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.130.0024.25-0.00-0.07
North FloridaASun0.000.120.0049.10-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.000.120.0032.16-0.00-0.04
FurmanSC0.000.1250.0025.820.00-0.06
ArmyPat0.000.12100.0057.810.000.02
George WashingtonA100.000.1266.6777.370.000.07
MonmouthMAAC0.000.1250.0059.350.000.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.1250.0055.680.000.01
RiderMAAC0.000.1266.6751.360.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC4.170.120.0026.04-4.17-0.06
ColgatePat0.000.120.0036.43-0.00-0.03
Loyola MDPat0.000.1266.6738.520.00-0.03
NebraskaB100.000.12100.0051.030.000.00
RutgersB100.000.1250.0036.270.00-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.120.0028.95-0.00-0.05
West VirginiaB120.000.12100.0068.580.000.04
WoffordSC0.000.1266.6774.980.000.06
MarylandB100.000.12100.0063.680.000.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.120.0032.86-0.00-0.04
St. John'sBE0.000.11100.0052.280.000.01
IowaB100.000.1150.0067.840.000.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.1166.6768.330.000.04
FloridaSEC0.000.1166.6766.600.000.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.1133.3336.04-0.00-0.03
MinnesotaB100.000.1150.0063.730.000.03
USC UpstateASun0.000.10100.0050.220.000.00
BucknellPat0.000.0933.3346.82-0.00-0.01
NavyPat0.000.090.0032.22-0.00-0.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0950.0036.850.00-0.02
FordhamA100.000.090.0034.73-0.00-0.03
George MasonA100.000.0925.0022.09-0.00-0.05
Saint LouisA100.000.09100.0066.070.000.03
La SalleA100.000.09100.0055.910.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0933.3333.43-0.00-0.03
St. Francis PANEC0.000.090.0051.62-0.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.000.0933.3331.34-0.00-0.03
VCUA100.000.09100.0074.770.000.04
FIUCUSA0.000.09100.0043.610.00-0.01
HartfordAE0.000.0966.6738.630.00-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0925.0029.11-0.00-0.04
New HampshireAE0.000.090.0041.70-0.00-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.090.0045.03-0.00-0.01
Green BayHorz0.000.090.0065.86-0.000.03
VMISC0.000.0950.0043.730.00-0.01
Penn St.B100.000.0975.0045.210.00-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0950.0036.810.00-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.000.090.0033.43-0.00-0.03
KentuckySEC0.000.09100.0086.080.000.06
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.08100.0058.280.000.01
MichiganB100.000.08100.0066.870.000.03
South FloridaAmer0.000.08100.0044.620.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0750.0038.240.00-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.070.0038.57-0.00-0.02
LipscombASun0.000.070.0041.45-0.00-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0733.3338.27-0.00-0.02
UC DavisBW0.000.07100.0043.140.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0750.0062.910.000.02
UC RiversideBW0.000.070.0027.23-0.00-0.03
High PointBSth2.080.07100.0058.332.080.01
OhioMAC0.000.0650.0054.660.000.01
AmericanPat0.000.0666.6764.270.000.02
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0633.3357.87-0.000.01
LafayettePat0.000.0666.6762.890.000.02
LehighPat0.000.060.0035.69-0.00-0.02
NJITind0.000.0633.3328.81-0.00-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0633.3343.51-0.00-0.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0650.0063.960.000.02
BrownIvy0.000.0633.3338.39-0.00-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.06100.0053.060.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0038.98-0.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.060.0015.68-0.00-0.04
CharlotteCUSA0.000.06100.0070.040.000.02
HowardMEAC0.000.060.0034.15-0.00-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.060.0037.45-0.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0666.6759.850.000.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.060.0035.33-0.00-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.000.060.0054.47-0.000.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.060.0033.39-0.00-0.02
DetroitHorz0.000.060.0055.45-0.000.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.060.0048.48-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0633.3336.31-0.00-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.060.0043.82-0.00-0.01
MaineAE0.000.060.0016.80-0.00-0.04
MercerSC0.000.0650.0052.770.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.060.0033.64-0.00-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.000.0675.0062.010.000.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.060.0054.88-0.000.01
USCP120.000.0650.0026.710.00-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0666.6752.470.000.00
WagnerNEC0.000.060.0043.90-0.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0650.0052.540.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.060.0036.14-0.00-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.06100.0074.210.000.03
NorthwesternB100.000.06100.0043.710.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0666.6763.580.000.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.06100.0075.400.000.03
ToledoMAC0.000.0633.3363.82-0.000.02
ButlerBE0.000.06100.0054.180.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0027.18-0.00-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0633.3335.37-0.00-0.02
IllinoisB100.000.06100.0065.630.000.02
WisconsinB100.000.06100.0081.110.000.04
CaliforniaP120.000.0675.0073.240.000.03
CornellIvy0.000.0640.0041.64-0.00-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0633.3359.35-0.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.060.0032.47-0.00-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0666.6751.090.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.06100.0036.560.00-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.06100.0069.720.000.02
UCFAmer0.000.06100.0045.610.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0650.0040.180.00-0.01
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0067.360.000.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0650.0043.330.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC2.080.0325.0033.23-1.04-0.01
BYUWCC0.000.03100.0069.310.000.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC2.080.030.0033.60-2.08-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.03100.0061.810.000.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0333.3349.18-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0045.55-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.000.03100.0076.430.000.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.030.0029.61-0.00-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0366.6742.560.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0016.72-0.00-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0366.6766.420.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0366.6757.590.000.00
IPFWSum0.000.0350.0065.390.000.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0350.0054.250.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0350.0055.220.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.03100.0029.380.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.03100.0048.390.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0350.0056.600.000.00
ArizonaP120.000.03100.0068.970.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.030.0044.57-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC2.780.030.0029.88-2.78-0.01
CampbellBSth0.000.030.0030.14-0.00-0.01
DelawareCAA0.000.030.0033.61-0.00-0.01
DenverSum0.000.0350.0062.440.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.030.0034.69-0.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0050.900.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.030.0058.17-0.000.00
Iowa St.B120.000.03100.0061.270.000.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0366.6747.240.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0350.0062.510.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.030.0054.04-0.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.030.0048.22-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.030.0069.29-0.000.01
PennIvy0.000.030.0025.28-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0031.91-0.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0027.72-0.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.030.0043.40-0.00-0.00
VermontAE0.000.0350.0066.020.000.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0055.380.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0350.0045.610.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.000.0350.0057.440.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0325.0057.21-0.000.00
DrexelCAA0.000.030.0034.27-0.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.03100.0063.380.000.01
ElonCAA0.000.0350.0040.300.00-0.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0350.0041.040.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.03100.0068.990.000.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0333.3344.86-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.030.0038.65-0.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.000.0366.6760.730.000.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.03100.0065.850.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.03100.0064.850.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0031.68-0.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.03100.0061.420.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.03100.0064.920.000.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.0023.71-0.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0350.0049.560.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0366.6763.800.000.01
LamarSlnd0.000.030.0033.17-0.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0015.85-0.00-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.000.030.0034.37-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.030.0035.31-0.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.03100.0045.530.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0333.3349.73-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.000.0333.3367.72-0.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0044.000.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0038.27-0.00-0.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0350.0033.930.00-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0350.0049.490.00-0.00