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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Pittsburgh

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:74.0
Current RPI:74
Expected SOS:8
Current SOS:8
Current Record:16-17
Expected Record:16-17
Current Conf Record:5-15
Expected Conf Record:5-15
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-9
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:10-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:1-1
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:22
Expected OOC SOS:35



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-1774.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Pittsburgh.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Eastern Michigan (174.0)MACH93-90W100%0.0
11-14Gardner Webb (186.0)BSthH99-80W100%0.0
11-17SMU (13.0)AmerN76-67L0%0.0
11-18Marquette (60.0)BEN75-78W100%0.0
11-22Yale (128.0)IvyH75-70W100%0.0
11-25Morehead St. (200.0)OVCH76-63W100%0.0
11-29Maryland (36.0)B10A59-73W100%0.0
12-2Duquesne (267.0)A10N55-64L0%0.0
12-7Buffalo (146.0)MACH84-79W100%0.0
12-10Penn St. (101.0)B10N81-73W100%0.0
12-17Rice (167.0)CUSAH83-73W100%0.0
12-21Nebraska Omaha (132.0)SumH94-75W100%0.0
12-28Marshall (112.0)CUSAH112-106W100%0.0
12-31Notre Dame (23.0)ACCH77-78L0%0.0
1-4Virginia (18.0)ACCH88-76W100%0.0
1-7Syracuse (84.0)ACCA77-66L0%0.0
1-11Louisville (7.0)ACCA85-80L0%0.0
1-14Miami FL (41.0)ACCH46-72L0%0.0
1-17North Carolina St. (141.0)ACCA79-74L0%0.0
1-24Louisville (7.0)ACCH51-106L0%0.0
1-28Clemson (69.0)ACCH60-67L0%0.0
1-31North Carolina (5.0)ACCA80-78L0%0.0
2-4Duke (6.0)ACCA72-64L0%0.0
2-8Boston College (219.0)ACCA72-83W100%0.0
2-11Syracuse (84.0)ACCH80-75W100%0.0
2-14Virginia Tech (48.0)ACCH63-66L0%0.0
2-18Florida St. (14.0)ACCH80-66W100%0.0
2-22Wake Forest (38.0)ACCA63-59L0%0.0
2-25North Carolina (5.0)ACCH67-85L0%0.0
2-28Georgia Tech (105.0)ACCA61-52L0%0.0
3-4Virginia (18.0)ACCA67-42L0%0.0
3-7Georgia Tech (105.0)ACCN59-61W100%0.0
3-8Virginia (18.0)ACCN75-63L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Pittsburgh's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Pittsburgh's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Pittsburgh.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
PittsburghACC26.1226.1243.3643.36-3.47-3.47
VirginiaACC5.115.1168.9768.971.941.94
SyracuseACC3.623.6256.6756.670.480.48
North CarolinaACC3.623.6277.4277.421.981.98
LouisvilleACC3.613.6173.3373.331.691.69
Georgia TechACC3.593.5951.7251.720.120.12
DukeACC2.242.2476.4776.471.191.19
Notre DameACC2.222.2272.7372.731.011.01
Virginia TechACC2.152.1567.7467.740.760.76
Miami FLACC2.152.1564.5264.520.620.62
North Carolina St.ACC2.132.1345.1645.16-0.21-0.21
ClemsonACC2.132.1351.6151.610.070.07
Boston CollegeACC2.102.1029.0329.03-0.88-0.88
Wake ForestACC2.102.1058.0658.060.340.34
Florida St.ACC2.102.1078.1278.121.181.18
Eastern MichiganMAC1.661.6642.8642.86-0.24-0.24
Penn St.B101.631.6346.8846.88-0.10-0.10
YaleIvy1.591.5962.9662.960.410.41
MarshallCUSA1.571.5757.5857.580.240.24
SMUAmer1.571.5787.8887.881.191.19
Nebraska OmahaSum1.571.5756.6756.670.210.21
Gardner WebbBSth1.561.5655.1755.170.160.16
RiceCUSA1.561.5666.6766.670.520.52
BuffaloMAC1.541.5451.7251.720.050.05
DuquesneA101.541.5429.0329.03-0.65-0.65
MarylandB101.541.5476.6776.670.820.82
Morehead St.OVC1.541.5444.4444.44-0.17-0.17
MarquetteBE1.521.5263.3363.330.400.40
IowaB100.190.1956.2556.250.020.02
OhioMAC0.170.1763.3363.330.050.05
PurdueB100.170.1778.1278.120.090.09
VillanovaBE0.170.1791.1891.180.140.14
Ohio St.B100.170.1753.1253.120.010.01
WisconsinB100.170.1773.5373.530.080.08
IndianaB100.160.1654.5554.550.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.160.1661.2961.290.040.04
AkronMAC0.150.1575.7675.760.080.08
ProvidenceBE0.140.1462.5062.500.040.04
NebraskaB100.140.1436.6736.67-0.04-0.04
CharlotteCUSA0.140.1441.3841.38-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.140.1454.8454.840.010.01
TulaneAmer0.140.1419.3519.35-0.09-0.09
East CarolinaAmer0.140.1445.4545.45-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.120.1234.4834.48-0.04-0.04
High PointBSth0.120.1242.8642.86-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
XavierBE0.120.1261.7661.760.030.03
GeorgetownBE0.120.1243.7543.75-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.120.1242.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.120.1240.6240.62-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.120.1242.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.120.1224.1424.14-0.06-0.06
RutgersB100.120.1243.7543.75-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.120.1268.5768.570.040.04
NorthwesternB100.120.1267.6567.650.040.04
MinnesotaB100.120.1272.7372.730.050.05
George WashingtonA100.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
KentuckySEC0.120.1285.2985.290.080.08
ColgatePat0.120.1229.0329.03-0.05-0.05
CincinnatiAmer0.110.1185.2985.290.080.08
HarvardIvy0.100.1061.5461.540.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
Central MichiganMAC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.100.1061.7661.760.020.02
CornellIvy0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
ToledoMAC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.100.1053.5753.570.010.01
WinthropBSth0.100.1080.0080.000.060.06
CreightonBE0.100.1072.7372.730.040.04
Kansas St.B120.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.100.1032.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Fort WayneSum0.100.1057.1457.140.010.01
RichmondA100.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
UTEPCUSA0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0931.0331.03-0.04-0.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.090.0910.0010.00-0.08-0.08
UNC GreensboroSC0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
TempleAmer0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
DavidsonA100.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.090.0981.8281.820.060.06
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.090.0928.5728.57-0.04-0.04
Michigan St.B100.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.090.0968.9768.970.030.03
ConnecticutAmer0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.090.0987.8887.880.070.07
PrincetonIvy0.080.0878.5778.570.050.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.080.0838.4638.46-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
PennIvy0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Seton HallBE0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
VCUA100.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
WoffordSC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0767.6567.650.030.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.073.333.33-0.07-0.07
North TexasCUSA0.070.0721.4321.43-0.04-0.04
Boston UniversityPat0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
CaliforniaP120.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.070.0736.3636.36-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
West VirginiaB120.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
MaineAE0.070.0719.3519.35-0.04-0.04
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
UABCUSA0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
FloridaSEC0.070.0775.0075.000.030.03
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0758.6258.620.010.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
BrownIvy0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.050.0584.8584.850.040.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
HartfordAE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
CampbellBSth0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
BryantNEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
VMISC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
ButlerBE0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
DenverSum0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
DePaulBE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
South DakotaSum0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
Iowa St.B120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
BaylorB120.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
DaytonA100.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
FordhamA100.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UMBCAE0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0518.5218.52-0.03-0.03
USCP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
UTSACUSA0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0519.2319.23-0.03-0.03
StanfordP120.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
HoustonAmer0.040.0467.7467.740.020.02
MemphisAmer0.040.0459.3859.380.010.01
TulsaAmer0.040.0446.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.040.0465.6265.620.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
LehighPat0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
AmericanPat0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.020.0232.0032.00-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.020.0236.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
Texas TechB120.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
UMKCWAC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
AuburnSEC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
BucknellPat0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
La SalleA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
LSUSEC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
MercerSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
MontanaBSky0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
OklahomaB120.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
The CitadelSC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
IonaMAAC0.020.0264.7164.710.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.020.0210.3410.34-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
SeattleWAC0.020.0237.0437.04-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
ElonCAA0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
KansasB120.020.0287.5087.500.020.02
MaristMAAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01