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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.


Pittsburgh

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:74.5
Current RPI:65
Expected SOS:29
Current SOS:20
Current Record:14-9
Expected Record:18-13
Current Conf Record:3-7
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.62%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:50
Expected OOC SOS:118



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-933.70.17%
21-1041.92.13%
20-1151.510.16%
19-1262.222.69%
18-1374.230.73%
17-1487.022.54%
16-1599.39.15%
15-16111.42.32%
14-17121.70.10%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Pittsburgh.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Albany (208.3)AEH89-56W100%0.0
11-13Rider (213.8)MAACH86-78W100%0.0
11-16Long Beach St. (39.1)BWH76-86L0%0.0
11-22La Salle (69.1)A10H73-69W100%0.0
11-25Pennsylvania (113.9)IvyA58-78W100%0.0
11-27Robert Morris (111.2)NECH81-71W100%0.0
11-30Duquesne (79.5)A10N69-80W100%0.0
12-3Tennessee (136.4)SECA56-61W100%0.0
12-6Virginia Military Inst (264.1)BSthH97-70W100%0.0
12-10Oklahoma St. (120.3)B12N74-68W100%0.0
12-17South Carolina St. (337.8)MEACH69-55W100%0.0
12-20St. Francis PA (303.9)NECH71-47W100%0.0
12-23Wagner (83.5)NECH54-59L0%0.0
12-27Notre Dame (66.5)BEA72-59L0%0.0
1-1Cincinnati (89.8)BEH63-66L0%0.0
1-5DePaul (187.2)BEA84-81L0%0.0
1-11Rutgers (141.7)BEH39-62L0%0.0
1-14Marquette (15.5)BEA62-57L0%0.0
1-16Syracuse (2.1)BEA71-63L0%0.0
1-21Louisville (25.3)BEH62-73L0%0.0
1-25Providence (146.8)BEH86-74W100%0.0
1-28Georgetown (13.9)BEH72-60W100%0.0
1-30West Virginia (31.4)BEA66-72W100%0.0
2-5Villanova (98.5)BEH0-064%3.9
2-8South Florida (96.1)BEA0-052%0.5
2-12Seton Hall (53.1)BEA0-036%-4.0
2-16West Virginia (31.4)BEH0-047%-0.9
2-19South Florida (96.1)BEH0-075%7.2
2-26Louisville (25.3)BEA0-023%-8.1
2-29St. John's (151.1)BEH0-081%9.4
3-3Connecticut (27.1)BEA0-026%-7.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Pittsburgh's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Pittsburgh's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Pittsburgh.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
PittsburghBE26.1025.9955.2454.042.732.10
LouisvilleBE2.513.7377.2771.561.371.61
West VirginiaBE2.413.7068.1867.830.881.32
South FloridaBE0.293.7054.5549.450.03-0.04
VillanovaBE0.422.2245.4546.43-0.04-0.16
ConnecticutBE0.382.2068.1863.660.140.60
SyracuseBE2.552.1995.6591.742.331.83
ProvidenceBE2.452.1759.0951.950.450.08
Notre DameBE2.402.1763.6461.410.660.49
RutgersBE2.562.1747.8345.04-0.11-0.21
DePaulBE2.412.1747.6240.86-0.11-0.40
MarquetteBE2.412.1478.2675.181.361.08
St. John'sBE0.382.1443.4840.97-0.05-0.39
CincinnatiBE2.462.1468.1864.320.890.61
Seton HallBE0.332.1465.2263.720.100.59
GeorgetownBE2.502.1485.0080.251.751.29
Robert MorrisNEC2.411.8070.8372.361.000.81
La SalleA102.361.7573.9171.111.130.74
PennsylvaniaIvy2.361.7557.1458.730.340.30
WagnerNEC2.311.7281.8284.021.471.17
RiderMAAC2.311.7239.1339.80-0.50-0.35
St. Francis PANEC2.221.6922.7323.57-1.21-0.89
AlbanyAE2.221.6662.5062.440.550.41
DuquesneA102.261.6661.9058.360.540.28
Long Beach St.BW2.221.6670.0072.360.890.74
TennesseeSEC2.171.6447.6246.20-0.10-0.12
Oklahoma St.B122.171.6147.6242.11-0.10-0.25
South Carolina St.MEAC2.171.6110.5315.48-1.72-1.11
Virginia Military InstBSth2.171.6147.3745.92-0.11-0.13
MonmouthNEC0.360.2728.0028.91-0.16-0.11
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.370.278.7012.13-0.30-0.20
BryantNEC0.230.228.3310.86-0.19-0.17
MemphisCUSA0.290.1969.5771.510.110.08
Central ConnecticutNEC0.180.1945.4545.70-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.230.1956.5255.950.030.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.230.1944.0045.89-0.03-0.02
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.280.1913.6416.35-0.20-0.13
KansasB120.100.1778.2678.390.060.09
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.180.1626.0928.60-0.09-0.07
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.1419.0522.37-0.06-0.08
AuburnSEC0.100.1456.5248.810.01-0.00
QuinnipiacNEC0.140.1456.5257.150.020.02
BaylorB120.200.1390.9183.850.160.09
Kansas St.B120.150.1372.7368.280.070.05
Saint Joseph'sA100.140.1362.5062.490.040.03
TempleA100.090.1377.2775.060.050.07
PrincetonIvy0.190.1347.3752.87-0.010.01
FloridaSEC0.190.1382.6177.630.120.07
KentuckySEC0.150.1395.8392.570.130.11
MaristMAAC0.140.1334.7833.43-0.04-0.04
VanderbiltSEC0.140.1369.5765.870.060.04
DartmouthIvy0.140.1314.2917.17-0.10-0.09
Gardner WebbBSth0.160.1234.7838.77-0.05-0.03
NC AshevilleBSth0.160.1268.1867.640.060.04
Longwoodind0.110.1230.0027.84-0.04-0.05
St. BonaventureA100.100.1160.0059.060.020.02
Long IslandNEC0.190.1170.8371.050.080.05
XavierA100.190.1165.2263.740.060.03
OklahomaB120.150.1159.0954.700.030.01
South CarolinaSEC0.100.1140.9139.56-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.090.1160.8760.960.020.02
St. LouisA100.050.1177.2777.670.030.06
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.050.1180.0078.060.030.06
LafayettePat0.190.1143.4842.95-0.02-0.02
MissouriB120.100.1191.3087.180.080.08
FordhamA100.050.1140.9134.50-0.01-0.03
George WashingtonA100.090.1134.7832.08-0.03-0.04
VermontAE0.040.1160.0062.490.010.03
GeorgiaSEC0.190.1145.4541.20-0.02-0.02
Boston UniversityAE0.090.1048.0051.88-0.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.090.1054.5554.300.010.01
St. Peter'sMAAC0.130.1021.7424.58-0.08-0.05
MaineAE0.090.1050.0049.730.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.140.1027.2723.80-0.06-0.05
James MadisonCAA0.180.1040.0040.18-0.04-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.190.1068.0069.070.070.04
MarshallCUSA0.140.1059.0959.720.030.02
Stony BrookAE0.180.1066.6768.050.060.04
PresbyterianBSth0.100.0940.9143.66-0.02-0.01
RadfordBSth0.160.098.7013.10-0.13-0.06
WinthropBSth0.150.0934.7834.61-0.05-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.160.0952.3857.860.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0938.8943.93-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCAA0.050.0860.0058.290.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.150.0850.0056.760.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.050.0842.8639.66-0.01-0.02
HowardMEAC0.150.0818.1822.22-0.10-0.05
AmericanPat0.100.0865.2263.790.030.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.0835.2939.85-0.03-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.100.0868.1869.100.040.03
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.100.0833.3338.38-0.03-0.02
LehighPat0.090.0873.9174.910.050.04
Penn St.B100.050.0841.6738.67-0.01-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.140.0836.3638.48-0.04-0.02
IUPUISum0.100.0834.7835.50-0.03-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.140.0868.1869.680.050.03
Texas TechB120.150.0831.8225.98-0.05-0.04
AkronMAC0.100.0868.1867.910.040.03
BucknellPat0.140.0873.9175.000.070.04
ColgatePat0.140.0830.4329.50-0.05-0.03
MassachusettsA100.090.0873.9168.580.050.03
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0837.5041.54-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.140.0820.8320.60-0.08-0.05
RichmondA100.090.0850.0048.490.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.100.0860.8759.760.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.150.0817.3924.41-0.10-0.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.040.0881.8280.430.030.05
Iowa St.B120.100.0873.9168.430.050.03
MississippiSEC0.090.0863.6456.710.030.01
Texas A&MB120.050.0852.3846.150.00-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.140.0856.5255.200.020.01
College of CharlestonSC0.100.0858.3359.980.020.02
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0855.0054.800.000.01
DelawareCAA0.090.0847.8350.65-0.000.00
DukeACC0.100.0886.3683.090.070.05
HarvardIvy0.000.0890.4887.910.000.06
Louisiana St.SEC0.090.0859.0957.280.020.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.0878.2672.340.050.04
Missouri St.MVC0.100.0854.1757.200.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.100.0818.1821.13-0.06-0.05
YaleIvy0.050.0872.2263.190.020.02
CornellIvy0.090.0836.8441.45-0.02-0.01
HartfordAE0.130.0817.3920.97-0.09-0.05
Miami FLACC0.090.0865.0060.020.030.02
OhioMAC0.090.0881.8277.200.060.04
SienaMAAC0.130.0845.4545.55-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.090.0835.0038.58-0.03-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0655.0060.330.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0672.2271.970.020.03
LibertyBSth0.050.0627.2727.21-0.02-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.100.0647.3742.16-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.100.069.5211.44-0.08-0.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0638.1042.78-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0665.0066.700.020.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.100.0621.0522.46-0.06-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0633.3337.25-0.00-0.01
PacificBW0.050.0635.0037.47-0.02-0.01
UC DavisBW0.050.060.005.37-0.05-0.05
UC IrvineBW0.050.0635.0035.26-0.02-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0655.5658.010.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0612.5013.44-0.00-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0642.1149.81-0.01-0.00
NC GreensboroSC0.100.0634.7833.46-0.03-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0528.5726.30-0.02-0.03
ArizonaP120.050.0566.6768.550.020.02
CharlotteA100.050.0550.0049.450.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.090.0579.1778.100.050.03
George MasonCAA0.090.0576.0072.500.050.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.090.0554.1754.750.010.01
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.090.0535.0039.38-0.03-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.090.0550.0051.530.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.0569.5765.150.000.02
Florida AtlanticSB0.000.0536.3639.72-0.00-0.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.000.0540.0041.30-0.00-0.01
Southern MississippiCUSA0.000.0585.7182.180.000.03
TexasB120.050.0560.8761.370.010.01
Chicago St.GWC0.100.054.769.95-0.09-0.04
Holy CrossPat0.050.0540.9142.05-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.100.0550.0058.160.000.01
StanfordP120.090.0569.5768.290.040.02
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.050.0519.0524.61-0.03-0.03
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.090.0556.5257.720.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0516.6723.02-0.03-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0537.5038.33-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.040.050.004.02-0.04-0.05
ButlerHorz0.050.0550.0050.800.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0517.3919.81-0.03-0.03
DetroitHorz0.050.0547.8349.03-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0579.1780.100.030.03
Kent St.MAC0.050.0571.4369.050.020.02
LamarSlnd0.050.0561.9067.230.010.02
Loyola MDMAAC0.050.0577.2773.450.020.02
MarylandACC0.090.0559.0950.820.020.00
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0545.4546.99-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.050.0547.8348.56-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0580.7780.750.030.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.054.359.66-0.04-0.04
UCLAP120.050.0554.5556.790.000.01
Western KentuckySB0.050.0534.7834.48-0.01-0.02
CampbellBSth0.050.0356.0055.650.010.00
High PointBSth0.050.0331.8232.75-0.02-0.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0386.9685.460.040.02
Boise St.MWC0.050.0342.8641.13-0.01-0.01
CreightonMVC0.000.0387.5085.410.000.02
Georgia St.CAA0.050.0366.6769.690.020.01
HawaiiWAC0.050.0357.1453.120.010.00
IdahoWAC0.050.0347.6251.08-0.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.038.7011.67-0.04-0.02
MontanaBSky0.050.0370.0073.280.020.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0325.0037.58-0.03-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0386.9683.160.040.02
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0385.7178.050.040.02
VirginiaACC0.050.0381.8276.800.030.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0347.6248.82-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.050.0332.0035.39-0.02-0.01
Houston BaptistGWC0.050.0325.0028.52-0.02-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0365.2263.610.020.01
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0340.9142.96-0.01-0.00
Arizona St.P120.050.0330.4331.43-0.02-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0333.3335.97-0.02-0.01
Central FloridaCUSA0.000.0371.4366.600.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0327.2735.02-0.02-0.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.050.0352.3852.860.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.0372.7371.710.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.038.708.99-0.04-0.02
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.050.0319.0521.29-0.03-0.02
MercerASun0.000.0370.8371.640.000.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0369.5761.310.020.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0381.8281.030.030.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.035.267.30-0.04-0.02
NorthwesternB100.000.0361.9055.140.000.00
OaklandSum0.050.0348.0050.21-0.000.00
Southern MethodistCUSA0.050.0338.1037.86-0.01-0.01
Texas San AntonioSlnd0.050.0357.1460.750.010.01
TulsaCUSA0.050.0360.8759.050.010.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.0347.8343.66-0.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0330.0037.30-0.02-0.01
ArmyPat0.050.0340.9141.72-0.01-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0330.4326.44-0.02-0.01
DavidsonSC0.050.0376.1976.760.030.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0340.9138.38-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0381.8281.490.030.02
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0362.5062.060.010.01
IndianaB100.050.0375.0075.780.020.01
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0317.3922.00-0.03-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0334.7838.42-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0330.0034.15-0.02-0.01
NavyPat0.040.039.5213.19-0.04-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0370.8364.420.020.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0330.0031.54-0.02-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0362.5061.500.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0355.0054.480.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0326.3229.79-0.02-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.050.0345.0046.13-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.050.034.005.26-0.04-0.02
TulaneCUSA0.050.0361.9058.590.010.00
WashingtonP120.050.0369.5766.540.020.01
WisconsinB100.050.0375.0073.970.020.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0341.6740.61-0.01-0.00