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Through games of Feb 9, 2016.


Pittsburgh

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:47.2
Current RPI:43
Expected SOS:42
Current SOS:56
Current Record:16-6
Expected Record:20-9
Current Conf Record:6-5
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:10-1
Expected OOC Record:10-1
Expected OOC RPI:47
Expected OOC SOS:176



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-618.10.57%
22-722.84.90%
21-830.518.04%
20-942.130.05%
19-1054.428.33%
18-1166.014.60%
17-1278.83.28%
16-1393.60.22%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Pittsburgh.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-20Detroit (208.9)HorzH95-79W100%0.0
11-25Cornell (209.2)IvyH93-49W100%0.0
11-28Kent St. (107.4)MACH85-76W100%0.0
12-1Purdue (15.3)B10H59-72L0%0.0
12-4Duquesne (112.8)A10N75-96W100%0.0
12-6Central Arkansas (320.6)SlndH100-47W100%0.0
12-11Eastern Washington (207.4)BSkyH84-51W100%0.0
12-13Morehead St. (161.8)OVCH72-62W100%0.0
12-20Davidson (72.0)A10N69-94W100%0.0
12-23Western Carolina (240.8)SCH79-73W100%0.0
12-30Syracuse (53.3)ACCH72-61W100%0.0
1-2Maryland Eastern Shore (276.0)MEACH92-58W100%0.0
1-6Georgia Tech (89.9)ACCH89-84W100%0.0
1-9Notre Dame (34.1)ACCA82-86W100%0.0
1-14Louisville (18.3)ACCA59-41L0%0.0
1-16Boston College (233.1)ACCH84-61W100%0.0
1-19North Carolina St. (116.4)ACCH61-78L0%0.0
1-23Florida St. (46.5)ACCA72-74W100%0.0
1-27Clemson (109.8)ACCA73-60L0%0.0
1-31Virginia Tech (131.8)ACCH90-71W100%0.0
2-6Virginia (5.9)ACCH50-64L0%0.0
2-9Miami FL (11.4)ACCA65-63L0%0.0
2-14North Carolina (11.3)ACCA0-024%-7.8
2-16Wake Forest (127.3)ACCH0-089%13.6
2-20Syracuse (53.3)ACCA0-045%-1.2
2-24Louisville (18.3)ACCH0-039%-3.1
2-28Duke (18.0)ACCH0-045%-1.3
3-2Virginia Tech (131.8)ACCA0-067%4.8
3-5Georgia Tech (89.9)ACCA0-052%0.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Pittsburgh's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Pittsburgh's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Pittsburgh.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
PittsburghACC26.1026.0666.6763.418.706.99
Georgia TechACC2.714.0754.5553.400.250.28
SyracuseACC2.674.0269.5764.971.041.20
LouisvilleACC2.614.0178.2675.761.472.07
Virginia TechACC2.653.9854.1751.090.220.09
North CarolinaACC0.532.3783.3378.460.361.35
VirginiaACC2.752.3782.6177.731.791.31
Boston CollegeACC2.612.3430.4327.63-1.02-1.05
Miami FLACC2.662.3481.8276.751.691.25
ClemsonACC2.662.3456.5256.870.350.32
DukeACC0.482.3475.0072.370.241.05
Florida St.ACC2.652.3472.7367.131.210.80
Notre DameACC2.652.3473.9170.131.270.94
Wake ForestACC0.432.3443.4841.50-0.06-0.40
North Carolina St.ACC2.562.3247.8347.40-0.11-0.12
DavidsonA102.531.9063.1660.090.670.38
DuquesneA102.441.8463.6458.370.660.31
CornellIvy2.371.8444.4441.76-0.26-0.30
Western CarolinaSC2.441.8230.0032.45-0.97-0.64
Eastern WashingtonBSky2.381.7955.0056.090.240.22
Morehead St.OVC2.381.7952.3854.390.110.16
Central ArkansasSlnd2.271.7226.3231.12-1.08-0.65
DetroitHorz2.271.7250.0047.620.00-0.08
Kent St.MAC2.271.7268.1862.670.830.44
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.271.7230.4334.94-0.89-0.52
PurdueB102.271.7279.1777.201.330.94
WoffordSC0.200.2043.4846.22-0.03-0.02
VCUA100.210.2073.9173.970.100.10
Saint LouisA100.250.1836.3633.54-0.07-0.06
Green BayHorz0.160.1554.5556.020.010.02
HowardMEAC0.210.1536.3638.92-0.06-0.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.250.1530.4332.36-0.10-0.05
East Tennessee St.SC0.160.1559.0959.420.030.03
George WashingtonA100.150.1578.2674.410.090.07
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.160.1514.2924.89-0.11-0.07
UNC GreensboroSC0.160.1527.2731.05-0.07-0.06
IndianaB100.100.1579.1774.040.060.07
Eastern MichiganMAC0.150.1540.0043.44-0.03-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.090.1482.6178.910.060.08
St. BonaventureA100.150.1471.4368.940.070.05
ColgatePat0.160.1443.4844.80-0.02-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.190.1429.1733.12-0.08-0.05
Michigan St.B100.190.1480.0081.600.110.09
MilwaukeeHorz0.150.1259.0959.630.030.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.100.1225.0024.33-0.05-0.06
George MasonA100.150.1233.3333.68-0.05-0.04
MassachusettsA100.160.1240.9139.33-0.03-0.03
RichmondA100.060.1254.5554.470.010.01
SamfordSC0.100.1241.6742.60-0.02-0.02
VMISC0.150.1215.0016.72-0.11-0.08
Western KentuckyCUSA0.150.1245.4546.24-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.150.1221.7420.37-0.08-0.07
St. Francis PANEC0.190.1250.0049.460.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.150.1234.7840.91-0.05-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.090.1156.0052.830.010.01
MarylandB100.090.1187.5083.700.070.08
IowaB100.190.1182.6180.550.120.07
Penn St.B100.190.1150.0046.740.00-0.01
LehighPat0.140.1136.3639.78-0.04-0.02
NorthwesternB100.050.1164.0062.060.010.03
WisconsinB100.090.1160.8755.830.020.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.110.1033.3335.06-0.04-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.170.0966.6765.220.060.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.160.0921.7422.74-0.09-0.05
OaklandHorz0.100.0968.0067.980.040.03
PrincetonIvy0.050.0972.2274.700.020.05
MercerSC0.110.0969.5769.020.040.04
HarvardIvy0.110.0935.0038.50-0.03-0.02
YaleIvy0.060.0973.6874.680.030.05
College of CharlestonCAA0.160.0963.6460.920.040.02
New OrleansSlnd0.160.0927.7834.43-0.07-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.110.0918.1821.15-0.07-0.05
Bowling GreenMAC0.100.0950.0045.840.00-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.150.0945.8346.64-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.100.0956.5259.860.010.02
UMass LowellAE0.150.0934.7835.65-0.05-0.03
DaytonA100.160.0986.9682.300.120.06
La SalleA100.100.0920.0020.46-0.06-0.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.150.0943.4843.78-0.02-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.0919.0525.89-0.06-0.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.100.0952.1754.170.000.01
IllinoisB100.150.0945.8344.13-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.050.0955.0052.190.000.00
UMBCAE0.100.0924.0026.33-0.05-0.04
LamarSlnd0.100.0930.0029.27-0.04-0.04
Montana St.BSky0.100.0940.9143.71-0.02-0.01
OhioMAC0.150.0963.6461.420.040.02
BuffaloMAC0.050.0956.5256.990.010.01
FloridaSEC0.140.0966.6766.320.050.03
ArkansasSEC0.050.0850.0053.100.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.100.0859.0955.300.020.01
NebraskaB100.090.0854.1751.880.010.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.090.0845.4554.14-0.010.01
VillanovaBE0.100.0887.5086.910.070.06
West VirginiaB120.090.0879.1778.090.050.05
ElonCAA0.050.0852.1750.420.000.00
KentuckySEC0.050.0875.0072.610.020.04
MichiganB100.090.0869.5766.220.040.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.090.0837.5043.38-0.02-0.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0833.3332.36-0.02-0.03
BelmontOVC0.050.0666.6766.540.020.02
BrownIvy0.060.0631.5831.07-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.060.0631.5831.75-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0652.0050.250.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.065.007.21-0.05-0.05
PennIvy0.000.0638.8937.63-0.00-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0666.6762.650.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0668.1866.650.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0681.8283.040.030.04
Wright St.Horz0.110.0656.5257.010.010.01
UCFAmer0.110.0650.0044.860.00-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.110.0690.4886.910.090.05
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0686.9686.660.040.05
FurmanSC0.050.0654.1754.060.000.01
IdahoBSky0.050.0654.5554.950.000.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0617.6529.05-0.00-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.050.0647.3749.93-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.110.0610.0013.14-0.09-0.05
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0628.5726.98-0.02-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0617.6526.57-0.04-0.03
Portland St.BSky0.050.0631.5837.70-0.02-0.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0642.1145.67-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0645.0049.25-0.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.110.0647.6244.99-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.110.0615.0015.34-0.08-0.04
The CitadelSC0.050.0631.8230.06-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.110.0644.0045.31-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.110.0680.0081.160.060.04
ToledoMAC0.100.0660.8762.040.020.01
SienaMAAC0.060.0664.0064.140.020.02
CaliforniaP120.100.0665.2262.830.030.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.0658.3357.170.000.01
South CarolinaSEC0.100.0686.3679.110.070.03
UTSACUSA0.100.0613.6413.63-0.08-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.069.0912.24-0.00-0.04
High PointBSth0.100.0655.0057.460.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0652.9452.080.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.090.0625.0033.22-0.05-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0654.1754.140.000.00
Kansas St.B120.050.0660.8758.300.010.01
MissouriSEC0.090.0634.7830.33-0.03-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.090.0656.5262.790.010.01
AkronMAC0.000.0682.6181.140.000.04
AlabamaSEC0.090.0659.0953.250.020.00
Miami OHMAC0.050.0634.7833.09-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0631.8232.69-0.02-0.02
BucknellPat0.050.0654.5558.160.000.01
ButlerBE0.090.0669.5767.150.040.02
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0645.4551.34-0.000.00
LSUSEC0.050.0665.2260.260.010.01
MinnesotaB100.090.0626.0927.79-0.04-0.03
Ohio St.B100.090.0660.0055.500.020.01
UCLAP120.000.0656.5253.270.000.00
UtahP120.050.0669.5767.500.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.090.0671.4369.830.040.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0628.5733.36-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0624.0025.67-0.02-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0673.9172.480.020.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0615.0018.09-0.03-0.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0682.6181.120.030.03
HartfordAE0.050.0625.0026.75-0.02-0.03
Iowa St.B120.050.0673.9170.050.020.02
IUPUISum0.090.0640.0039.81-0.02-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0621.7423.40-0.03-0.03
North FloridaASun0.050.0665.2267.130.010.02
RadfordBSth0.050.0650.0051.300.000.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0625.0023.40-0.02-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.050.0650.0048.130.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0678.2677.860.030.03
UABCUSA0.050.0682.6179.370.030.03
UMKCWAC0.050.0628.5732.73-0.02-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0633.3334.95-0.02-0.02
AlbanyAE0.060.0376.0076.310.030.02
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0337.5040.54-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.060.0320.8324.09-0.03-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0340.9143.54-0.01-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0354.1750.940.000.00
LafayettePat0.060.0321.7423.00-0.03-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.050.0350.0051.210.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.050.0345.4549.67-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0339.1341.10-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.060.0340.9143.29-0.01-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0317.3920.65-0.03-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0313.6415.77-0.04-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0331.5832.01-0.02-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0347.8350.19-0.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0335.0034.80-0.02-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0342.8639.22-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0372.0071.540.020.01
DenverSum0.050.0354.1751.790.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0350.0049.790.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0345.0046.13-0.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.050.0357.8962.320.010.01
OklahomaB120.060.0386.9682.650.040.02
PacificWCC0.050.0325.0028.89-0.03-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0354.5550.110.000.00
South DakotaSum0.050.0341.6741.23-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0372.2275.580.030.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0376.1972.280.030.01
TulsaAmer0.060.0365.2261.470.020.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0365.2266.200.020.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0365.0069.240.000.01
AmericanPat0.050.0330.4331.91-0.02-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0331.8236.14-0.02-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0314.2920.67-0.03-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.050.0359.0961.320.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0343.4850.65-0.010.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0338.1037.68-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0360.8757.190.010.00
BradleyMVC0.050.0312.5012.90-0.04-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0347.6249.35-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0323.8126.56-0.03-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0360.0060.080.000.01
DePaulBE0.050.0333.3334.01-0.02-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0322.7327.22-0.03-0.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0365.2264.220.020.01
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0350.0049.830.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.050.0334.7836.50-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0357.8961.740.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0342.8646.35-0.01-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0343.4842.66-0.01-0.00
MaristMAAC0.050.0321.7424.19-0.03-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0320.0022.32-0.03-0.02
NJITASun0.050.0354.1755.280.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0360.0057.610.010.00
PepperdineWCC0.050.0356.5257.280.010.00
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0325.0026.86-0.02-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0328.0030.73-0.02-0.01
SMUAmer0.050.0390.9186.110.040.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0372.0070.540.020.01
Stony BrookAE0.050.0381.8282.630.030.02
USC UpstateASun0.050.0322.7323.24-0.03-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0314.2915.46-0.04-0.02
XavierBE0.000.0387.5081.810.000.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0326.0929.17-0.00-0.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0354.1751.690.000.00
BryantNEC0.000.0325.0026.39-0.00-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0313.0413.55-0.03-0.02
DelawareCAA0.050.0321.7423.34-0.03-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0340.0038.98-0.00-0.01
MaineAE0.050.0333.3333.13-0.02-0.01
New HampshireAE0.050.0357.1453.990.010.00
New MexicoMWC0.050.0358.3360.730.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0354.1755.020.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.050.0375.0070.990.020.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0330.4331.20-0.02-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0333.3334.22-0.02-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0320.0019.68-0.03-0.02
TempleAmer0.000.0363.6459.810.000.01
TexasB120.000.0366.6762.200.000.01
UC IrvineBW0.050.0372.7371.650.020.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0347.6249.40-0.00-0.00
VermontAE0.050.0352.0054.860.000.00
WinthropBSth0.050.0365.0063.410.010.01