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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Pittsburgh

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:49.5
Current RPI:54
Expected SOS:6
Current SOS:127
Current Record:6-1
Expected Record:17-14
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-0
Current OOC Record:6-1
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:24
Expected OOC SOS:48



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-65.00.02%
24-78.40.09%
23-812.00.32%
22-915.61.66%
21-1020.43.84%
20-1125.78.01%
19-1232.513.78%
18-1340.418.11%
17-1449.619.48%
16-1560.715.62%
15-1672.210.42%
14-1784.35.47%
13-1898.12.12%
12-19111.80.82%
11-20125.60.16%
10-21139.30.06%
9-22156.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Pittsburgh.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Eastern Michigan (101.7)MACH93-90W100%0.0
11-14Gardner Webb (214.7)BSthH99-80W100%0.0
11-17SMU (50.9)AmerN76-67L0%0.0
11-18Marquette (60.1)BEN75-78W100%0.0
11-22Yale (103.3)IvyH75-70W100%0.0
11-25Morehead St. (211.9)OVCH76-63W100%0.0
11-29Maryland (99.7)B10A59-73W100%0.0
12-2Duquesne (255.5)A10N0-088%14.1
12-7Buffalo (138.0)MACH0-085%12.6
12-10Penn St. (136.8)B10N0-069%5.9
12-17Rice (102.7)CUSAH0-079%9.6
12-21Nebraska Omaha (183.8)SumH0-087%13.3
12-28Marshall (88.7)CUSAH0-082%10.9
12-31Notre Dame (26.0)ACCH0-035%-4.5
1-4Virginia (4.7)ACCH0-018%-10.9
1-7Syracuse (39.6)ACCA0-020%-10.1
1-11Louisville (6.5)ACCA0-012%-14.2
1-14Miami FL (45.8)ACCH0-042%-2.3
1-17North Carolina St. (109.3)ACCA0-050%0.1
1-24Louisville (6.5)ACCH0-025%-8.1
1-28Clemson (68.2)ACCH0-058%2.5
1-31North Carolina (5.9)ACCA0-09%-16.0
2-4Duke (8.6)ACCA0-010%-15.2
2-8Boston College (245.5)ACCA0-080%10.1
2-11Syracuse (39.6)ACCH0-037%-3.9
2-14Virginia Tech (64.9)ACCH0-055%1.4
2-18Florida St. (50.8)ACCH0-051%0.2
2-22Wake Forest (59.3)ACCA0-040%-3.0
2-25North Carolina (5.9)ACCH0-021%-9.8
2-28Georgia Tech (168.6)ACCA0-061%3.3
3-4Virginia (4.7)ACCA0-08%-17.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Pittsburgh's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Pittsburgh's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Pittsburgh.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
PittsburghACC29.1526.0582.7651.1319.100.59
VirginiaACC0.603.81100.0082.220.602.45
SyracuseACC0.003.7866.6770.050.001.52
LouisvilleACC0.003.7885.7175.570.001.93
North CarolinaACC0.003.7585.7179.650.002.23
DukeACC0.002.2287.5078.310.001.26
Georgia TechACC0.002.2266.6739.740.00-0.45
North Carolina St.ACC0.002.1971.4350.600.000.03
Virginia TechACC0.002.1985.7163.520.000.59
Boston CollegeACC0.002.1950.0027.490.00-0.99
Notre DameACC0.002.19100.0075.350.001.11
ClemsonACC0.002.1766.6753.870.000.17
Florida St.ACC0.002.1785.7162.850.000.56
Miami FLACC0.002.1771.4366.020.000.69
Wake ForestACC0.002.1771.4352.120.000.09
Eastern MichiganMAC8.371.7860.0058.001.670.28
Penn St.B100.001.7262.5044.390.00-0.19
SMUAmer8.451.6750.0068.280.000.61
MarshallCUSA0.711.6783.3361.030.480.37
Nebraska OmahaSum0.601.6733.3350.04-0.200.00
Gardner WebbBSth8.251.6725.0050.17-4.120.01
RiceCUSA0.001.6785.7170.720.000.69
YaleIvy7.141.6740.0066.71-1.430.56
BuffaloMAC0.001.6440.0052.21-0.000.07
Morehead St.OVC7.141.6425.0043.54-3.57-0.21
DuquesneA100.001.6437.5035.41-0.00-0.48
MarylandB107.141.64100.0058.447.140.28
MarquetteBE7.141.6183.3365.264.760.49
IowaB100.000.1942.8644.33-0.00-0.02
PurdueB100.000.1971.4374.450.000.09
WisconsinB100.000.1875.0073.840.000.09
IndianaB100.000.1883.3375.060.000.09
OhioMAC0.000.1780.0068.320.000.06
CharlotteCUSA0.000.1666.6751.090.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.1666.6765.810.000.05
VillanovaBE0.000.16100.0083.120.000.11
Ohio St.B100.000.1685.7172.660.000.07
IllinoisB100.000.1657.1442.660.00-0.02
AkronMAC0.000.1483.3369.840.000.06
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.1442.8646.78-0.00-0.01
RadfordBSth0.000.1433.3336.31-0.00-0.04
NebraskaB100.000.1450.0043.610.00-0.02
XavierBE0.000.14100.0074.800.000.07
Long Beach St.BW0.000.130.0039.35-0.00-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.000.1371.4356.280.000.02
GeorgetownBE0.510.1350.0047.560.00-0.01
MichiganB101.020.1371.4366.530.440.04
RutgersB100.000.1383.3344.770.00-0.01
MinnesotaB100.000.1385.7165.670.000.04
St. John'sBE0.000.1328.5733.92-0.00-0.04
George WashingtonA100.000.1357.1444.160.00-0.02
TulaneAmer0.000.1314.2926.81-0.00-0.06
ColgatePat0.000.1320.0041.31-0.00-0.02
KentuckySEC0.000.13100.0086.250.000.09
Ball St.MAC0.000.1250.0052.330.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.1266.6756.360.000.01
ToledoMAC0.000.1142.8650.36-0.000.00
IUPUISum1.110.1128.5747.72-0.47-0.01
CornellIvy0.000.1128.5730.63-0.00-0.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.1183.3370.360.000.05
High PointBSth0.000.1150.0051.260.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.1125.0038.72-0.00-0.02
Kansas St.B120.510.1185.7155.890.360.01
GeorgiaSEC0.710.1166.6754.380.240.01
TempleAmer0.000.1171.4363.570.000.03
Southern MissCUSA0.000.1133.3323.33-0.00-0.06
CreightonBE0.000.11100.0076.650.000.06
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1125.0039.28-0.00-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.1175.0047.510.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.1171.4366.220.000.03
RichmondA100.510.1157.1448.600.07-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.110.0027.77-0.00-0.05
CincinnatiAmer0.000.1085.7180.960.000.06
DavidsonA100.000.1083.3368.880.000.04
ConnecticutAmer0.000.1033.3338.76-0.00-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1050.0056.260.000.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.1071.4371.570.000.04
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0942.8642.47-0.00-0.01
PennIvy0.000.0940.0057.97-0.000.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.090.0023.47-0.00-0.05
HarvardIvy0.000.090.0043.04-0.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0942.8645.30-0.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0916.6736.45-0.00-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0957.1447.320.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0914.2928.66-0.00-0.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0933.3343.64-0.00-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0950.0051.820.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0950.0033.010.00-0.03
Fort WayneSum0.000.0866.6770.930.000.04
WinthropBSth0.000.0860.0070.500.000.03
AlbanyAE0.000.0850.0060.380.000.02
HowardMEAC1.220.080.0038.26-1.22-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0840.0067.95-0.000.03
North TexasCUSA0.000.0840.0030.80-0.00-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.710.0833.3340.39-0.24-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0820.0034.39-0.00-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0885.7173.010.000.04
UABCUSA0.000.0857.1461.940.000.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.0825.0043.26-0.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0842.8634.17-0.00-0.03
MaineAE0.000.0816.6725.61-0.00-0.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0866.6758.420.000.01
Western CarolinaSC0.510.0816.6718.96-0.34-0.05
St. BonaventureA100.000.0866.6770.740.000.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0857.1467.020.000.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0816.6729.36-0.00-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0866.6769.810.000.03
FloridaSEC0.000.0887.5075.320.000.04
Michigan St.B100.000.0850.0061.590.000.02
North FloridaASun0.000.0814.2931.71-0.00-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0883.3356.560.000.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.08100.0080.780.000.05
TennesseeSEC0.000.0825.0034.47-0.00-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0850.0053.530.000.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0840.0055.44-0.000.01
BrownIvy0.000.0650.0042.420.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0625.0063.95-0.000.02
VermontAE0.600.0662.5071.630.150.03
BelmontOVC0.000.0640.0061.37-0.000.01
LipscombASun0.710.0614.2933.07-0.51-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0616.6730.02-0.00-0.02
DenverSum0.000.0633.3341.11-0.00-0.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0640.0050.71-0.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0625.0024.66-0.00-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0650.0061.810.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.060.0019.30-0.00-0.04
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0633.3327.13-0.00-0.03
South DakotaSum0.000.0657.1447.220.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0614.2937.52-0.00-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0650.0064.840.000.02
Western IllinoisSum0.000.060.0022.69-0.00-0.03
CampbellBSth0.000.0625.0033.54-0.00-0.02
BryantNEC0.600.0628.5750.20-0.260.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0640.0037.65-0.00-0.01
HartfordAE0.000.0612.5022.55-0.00-0.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0642.8638.05-0.00-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0657.1440.590.00-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.0650.0062.460.000.01
DetroitHorz0.600.060.0019.51-0.60-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0675.0054.320.000.00
Iowa St.B120.000.0671.4368.970.000.02
VMISC0.000.060.0021.15-0.00-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.510.050.0033.44-0.51-0.02
USCP120.510.05100.0075.380.510.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.050.0018.22-0.00-0.03
FIUCUSA0.000.0516.6733.69-0.00-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.510.050.0038.51-0.51-0.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0528.5728.46-0.00-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0533.3341.52-0.00-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0516.6736.35-0.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.000.05100.0075.690.000.03
CaliforniaP120.000.0583.3363.610.000.01
DePaulBE0.000.0580.0035.960.00-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0528.5734.18-0.00-0.02
Seton HallBE0.000.0571.4354.520.000.00
West VirginiaB120.000.0583.3380.550.000.03
WoffordSC0.000.050.0033.58-0.00-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.050.0042.55-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.050.0034.23-0.00-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.050.0024.32-0.00-0.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0560.0052.760.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0540.0043.86-0.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.0575.0059.100.000.01
Stony BrookAE0.510.0516.6733.82-0.34-0.02
TowsonCAA0.510.0550.0054.490.000.00
UMBCAE0.000.0580.0055.340.000.01
VCUA100.000.0585.7178.150.000.03
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0520.0036.00-0.00-0.01
BaylorB120.000.05100.0074.460.000.03
DaytonA100.000.0566.6772.440.000.02
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0583.3362.080.000.01
FordhamA100.000.0557.1443.680.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0557.1442.940.00-0.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0550.0050.940.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.0542.8647.69-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0583.3376.370.000.03
Loyola MDPat0.000.0533.3340.49-0.00-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.050.0020.01-0.00-0.03
MemphisAmer0.000.0585.7159.740.000.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0542.8637.25-0.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0540.0057.49-0.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0571.4370.330.000.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0550.0046.780.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0533.3326.75-0.00-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0550.0046.670.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0560.0039.200.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0571.4386.030.000.04
DelawareCAA0.000.0340.0040.65-0.00-0.01
LehighPat0.600.0333.3367.01-0.200.01
WashingtonP120.600.0357.1452.630.090.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0340.0041.65-0.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0314.2929.15-0.00-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0383.3380.700.000.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0350.0043.490.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0366.6751.460.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0371.4343.020.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.0342.8661.90-0.000.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.710.0350.0052.140.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0350.0038.430.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.000.0320.0049.38-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.030.0034.18-0.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0371.4356.050.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.030.0037.92-0.00-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.030.0028.15-0.00-0.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0375.0070.470.000.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0316.6727.03-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.030.0034.01-0.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0325.0056.71-0.000.00
Texas TechB120.000.0385.7163.780.000.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0320.0054.94-0.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.0366.6756.020.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0032.39-0.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.510.0316.6735.65-0.34-0.01
BucknellPat0.000.0375.0067.660.000.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0328.5739.44-0.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0362.5056.500.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0360.0039.610.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.0371.4349.770.00-0.00
MercerSC0.000.0350.0053.050.000.00
MississippiSEC0.000.0371.4346.010.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0371.4358.670.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0366.6775.370.000.01
OklahomaB120.000.0383.3351.920.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0058.600.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.0325.0056.92-0.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0366.6766.100.000.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0340.0027.05-0.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0383.3377.170.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.510.0357.1448.860.07-0.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0383.3355.200.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.510.0350.0058.980.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0350.0059.670.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0017.30-0.00-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0316.6730.27-0.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.000.0371.4359.850.000.01
ElonCAA0.000.0383.3358.030.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0350.0045.410.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0360.0070.140.000.01
KansasB120.000.0385.7176.170.000.01
La SalleA100.000.0360.0051.780.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0366.6754.420.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0333.3338.19-0.00-0.01
MaristMAAC0.000.0342.8635.68-0.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0383.3358.080.000.00
MontanaBSky0.000.0314.2947.44-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0316.6737.09-0.00-0.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0350.0047.990.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.000.0357.1455.810.000.00
SeattleWAC0.000.0320.0042.63-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0366.6732.240.00-0.01
TCUB120.000.03100.0059.480.000.00
UCFAmer0.000.0383.3374.620.000.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0371.4349.590.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.0371.4355.750.000.00