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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Furman

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:97.0
Current RPI:97
Expected SOS:170
Current SOS:170
Current Record:21-10
Expected Record:21-10
Current Conf Record:14-6
Expected Conf Record:14-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-1
Current OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:72
Expected OOC SOS:86



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-1097.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Furman.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Elon (205.0)CAAH76-67W100%0.0
11-18Butler (41.0)BEA82-65L0%0.0
11-20Duke (7.0)ACCA92-63L0%0.0
11-24New Hampshire (312.0)AEN64-78W100%0.0
11-25Northeastern (55.0)CAAN67-78W100%0.0
11-29Winthrop (173.0)BSthH74-93L0%0.0
12-2Tennessee Tech (158.0)OVCH64-50W100%0.0
12-5UNC Asheville (130.0)BSthH83-72W100%0.0
12-9South Carolina St. (331.0)MEACH101-72W100%0.0
12-17UNC Wilmington (245.0)CAAA84-90W100%0.0
12-20Tennessee (8.0)SECA66-61L0%0.0
12-30VMI (313.0)SCA57-87W100%0.0
1-4The Citadel (281.0)SCH107-67W100%0.0
1-6Mercer (174.0)SCH74-71W100%0.0
1-10Chattanooga (304.0)SCA55-73W100%0.0
1-13Wofford (129.0)SCA79-70L0%0.0
1-18East Tennessee St. (93.0)SCH61-62L0%0.0
1-20Samford (296.0)SCH78-67W100%0.0
1-24UNC Greensboro (65.0)SCA71-61L0%0.0
1-27Western Carolina (215.0)SCH100-66W100%0.0
2-1Mercer (174.0)SCA73-85W100%0.0
2-3The Citadel (281.0)SCA100-92L0%0.0
2-7UNC Greensboro (65.0)SCH67-80L0%0.0
2-10Wofford (129.0)SCH76-52W100%0.0
2-15Chattanooga (304.0)SCH75-56W100%0.0
2-17Samford (296.0)SCA79-94W100%0.0
2-20VMI (313.0)SCH76-54W100%0.0
2-23Western Carolina (215.0)SCA55-78W100%0.0
2-25East Tennessee St. (93.0)SCA76-79W100%0.0
3-3Western Carolina (215.0)SCN97-73W100%0.0
3-4East Tennessee St. (93.0)SCN63-52L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Furman's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Furman's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Furman.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
FurmanSC26.5126.5168.7968.799.979.97
East Tennessee St.SC5.865.8672.4172.412.632.63
Western CarolinaSC5.775.7740.7440.74-1.07-1.07
UNC GreensboroSC4.464.4675.8675.862.302.30
ChattanoogaSC4.354.3527.5927.59-1.95-1.95
WoffordSC4.324.3260.7160.710.930.93
The CitadelSC4.294.2925.9325.93-2.07-2.07
MercerSC4.274.2757.1457.140.610.61
SamfordSC4.244.2428.5728.57-1.82-1.82
VMISC4.244.2426.9226.92-1.96-1.96
UNC AshevilleBSth1.861.8663.3363.330.500.50
UNC WilmingtonCAA1.791.7931.0331.03-0.68-0.68
ElonCAA1.791.7941.3841.38-0.31-0.31
NortheasternCAA1.751.7570.9770.970.730.73
WinthropBSth1.691.6955.5655.560.190.19
TennesseeSEC1.671.6775.0075.000.830.83
Tennessee TechOVC1.661.6656.6756.670.220.22
South Carolina St.MEAC1.641.6427.5927.59-0.74-0.74
DukeACC1.641.6478.1278.120.920.92
ButlerBE1.611.6159.3859.380.300.30
New HampshireAE1.611.6128.5728.57-0.69-0.69
High PointBSth0.320.3240.7440.74-0.06-0.06
College of CharlestonCAA0.290.2977.4277.420.160.16
PresbyterianBSth0.270.2727.5927.59-0.12-0.12
DelawareCAA0.260.2638.7138.71-0.06-0.06
LibertyBSth0.240.2454.8454.840.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.240.2462.5062.500.060.06
North CarolinaACC0.230.2371.4371.430.100.10
RadfordBSth0.220.2262.5062.500.060.06
Charleston SouthernBSth0.220.2242.8642.86-0.03-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.220.2213.3313.33-0.16-0.16
James MadisonCAA0.210.2129.0329.03-0.09-0.09
DrexelCAA0.210.2137.5037.50-0.05-0.05
CampbellBSth0.190.1946.4346.43-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.190.1965.6265.620.060.06
ClemsonACC0.180.1871.8871.880.080.08
HofstraCAA0.180.1860.0060.000.040.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.160.1628.5728.57-0.07-0.07
TowsonCAA0.160.1653.3353.330.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.160.1658.6258.620.030.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.150.1568.9768.970.060.06
KentuckySEC0.150.1570.5970.590.060.06
Gardner WebbBSth0.140.1437.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.130.139.689.68-0.11-0.11
Savannah St.MEAC0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.130.1335.4835.48-0.04-0.04
XavierBE0.120.1284.8584.850.090.09
UMBCAE0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
MemphisAmer0.110.1161.7661.760.030.03
Ohio St.B100.110.1175.0075.000.050.05
LSUSEC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
ArkansasSEC0.100.1067.6567.650.040.04
Georgia TechACC0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.106.676.67-0.09-0.09
VillanovaBE0.100.1088.2488.240.070.07
VCUA100.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
AmericanPat0.090.0920.0020.00-0.05-0.05
DavidsonA100.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
HartfordAE0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
VermontAE0.080.0878.7978.790.050.05
Appalachian St.SB0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0888.2488.240.060.06
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0824.2424.24-0.04-0.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.0884.3884.380.060.06
MassachusettsA100.080.0839.3939.39-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
ValparaisoMVC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Boston UniversityPat0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.03-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
FloridaSEC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
TexasB120.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0822.2222.22-0.04-0.04
VirginiaACC0.080.0893.9493.940.070.07
DetroitHorz0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
FordhamA100.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Fort WayneSum0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
TroySB0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
St. John'sBE0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
AlbanyAE0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
MaristMAAC0.060.0619.3519.35-0.03-0.03
Stony BrookAE0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0515.6215.62-0.04-0.04
HamptonMEAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
HowardMEAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0512.5012.50-0.04-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Texas TechB120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
AuburnSEC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Utah St.MWC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.04-0.04
AkronMAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Murray St.OVC0.050.0582.7682.760.030.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
IndianaB100.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
LipscombASun0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
CreightonBE0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
DePaulBE0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
MarquetteBE0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Notre DameACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
PurdueB100.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
BryantNEC0.030.039.689.68-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.030.0323.0823.08-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
George WashingtonA100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
WisconsinB100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
DaytonA100.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
TCUB120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
BucknellPat0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
CornellIvy0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
StanfordP120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Iowa St.B120.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
MarylandB100.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Miami FLACC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Michigan St.B100.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
MissouriSEC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
South DakotaSum0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
SyracuseACC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
UtahP120.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.020.0265.5265.520.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01