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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Furman

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:96.0
Current RPI:96
Expected SOS:179
Current SOS:179
Current Record:19-11
Expected Record:19-11
Current Conf Record:14-5
Expected Conf Record:14-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-2
Current OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:154
Expected OOC SOS:166



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1196.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Furman.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Presbyterian (347.0)BSthA73-71L0%0.0
11-14UAB (201.0)CUSAA74-84W100%0.0
11-17Georgia (52.0)SECA84-78L0%0.0
11-22UNC Asheville (73.0)BSthH58-64L0%0.0
11-30Winthrop (70.0)BSthA58-57L0%0.0
12-3Navy (208.0)PatH79-46W100%0.0
12-6Liberty (172.0)BSthA58-61W100%0.0
12-10Gardner Webb (186.0)BSthA65-68W100%0.0
12-16South Carolina St. (299.0)MEACH67-69L0%0.0
12-19Tennessee Tech (277.0)OVCA62-68W100%0.0
12-22Michigan (25.0)B10A68-62L0%0.0
12-31The Citadel (282.0)SCH83-68W100%0.0
1-2Mercer (192.0)SCH71-69W100%0.0
1-5Samford (170.0)SCA73-83W100%0.0
1-7Chattanooga (139.0)SCA80-64L0%0.0
1-14Wofford (190.0)SCA67-58L0%0.0
1-19East Tennessee St. (55.0)SCH75-62W100%0.0
1-21VMI (329.0)SCH89-72W100%0.0
1-25Western Carolina (271.0)SCH85-37W100%0.0
1-28UNC Greensboro (95.0)SCA67-73W100%0.0
2-2Mercer (192.0)SCA68-70W100%0.0
2-4The Citadel (282.0)SCA91-99W100%0.0
2-9Chattanooga (139.0)SCH60-56W100%0.0
2-11Samford (170.0)SCH90-73W100%0.0
2-13VMI (329.0)SCA52-80W100%0.0
2-15Western Carolina (271.0)SCA62-74W100%0.0
2-18UNC Greensboro (95.0)SCH52-73L0%0.0
2-22East Tennessee St. (55.0)SCA93-81L0%0.0
2-25Wofford (190.0)SCH78-69W100%0.0
3-4Samford (170.0)SCN63-67L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Furman's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Furman's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Furman.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
FurmanSC26.4326.4367.3667.369.189.18
SamfordSC6.006.0055.1755.170.620.62
UNC GreensboroSC4.554.5572.4172.412.042.04
East Tennessee St.SC4.464.4680.0080.002.682.68
The CitadelSC4.414.4132.1432.14-1.57-1.57
VMISC4.404.4015.3815.38-3.04-3.04
WoffordSC4.384.3842.8642.86-0.63-0.63
Western CarolinaSC4.354.3525.0025.00-2.18-2.18
MercerSC4.324.3246.4346.43-0.31-0.31
ChattanoogaSC4.324.3259.2659.260.800.80
PresbyterianBSth2.062.067.417.41-1.75-1.75
UNC AshevilleBSth2.032.0368.9768.970.770.77
Gardner WebbBSth2.012.0155.1755.170.210.21
LibertyBSth1.951.9557.1457.140.280.28
WinthropBSth1.921.9279.3179.311.131.13
GeorgiaSEC1.721.7254.8454.840.170.17
NavyPat1.721.7250.0050.000.000.00
MichiganB101.671.6767.6567.650.590.59
South Carolina St.MEAC1.671.6728.5728.57-0.71-0.71
Tennessee TechOVC1.671.6734.4834.48-0.52-0.52
UABCUSA1.671.6751.6151.610.050.05
CampbellBSth0.560.5645.1645.16-0.05-0.05
High PointBSth0.450.4542.8642.86-0.06-0.06
RadfordBSth0.430.4340.0040.00-0.09-0.09
Charleston SouthernBSth0.400.4032.1432.14-0.14-0.14
LongwoodBSth0.280.2814.2914.29-0.20-0.20
TennesseeSEC0.220.2248.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.190.1956.2556.250.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.170.1755.8855.880.020.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.140.1445.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
DaytonA100.140.1476.6776.670.070.07
Virginia TechACC0.140.1468.7568.750.050.05
College of CharlestonCAA0.140.1472.7372.730.060.06
Kennesaw St.ASun0.140.1440.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.140.1417.8617.86-0.09-0.09
Ohio St.B100.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
AuburnSEC0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
West VirginiaB120.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
USC UpstateASun0.110.1146.4346.43-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.110.1140.7440.74-0.02-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
ColgatePat0.110.1129.0329.03-0.05-0.05
FloridaSEC0.110.1175.0075.000.050.05
Morehead St.OVC0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Florida St.ACC0.110.1175.7675.760.050.05
Saint LouisA100.110.1136.3636.36-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
IllinoisB100.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.090.0945.4545.45-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0873.3373.330.040.04
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.083.333.33-0.08-0.08
UMBCAE0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.086.906.90-0.07-0.07
LSUSEC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
BucknellPat0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
HowardMEAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
KansasB120.080.0887.5087.500.060.06
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
KentuckySEC0.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0883.3383.330.050.05
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.0837.0437.04-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
TexasB120.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Michigan St.B100.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
NebraskaB100.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
RichmondA100.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
VCUA100.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
AkronMAC0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Arizona St.P120.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.060.0677.7877.780.030.03
BradleyMVC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
DavidsonA100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Iowa St.B120.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.060.0661.7661.760.010.01
La SalleA100.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
LipscombASun0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.060.0627.5927.59-0.02-0.02
TCUB120.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
VermontAE0.060.0684.8584.850.040.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
ArmyPat0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
LehighPat0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
FIUCUSA0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0529.4129.41-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0584.3884.380.040.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
MinnesotaB100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
PurdueB100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Boise St.MWC0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.030.0378.5778.570.020.02
SyracuseACC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Kansas St.B120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
OhioMAC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
SienaMAAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
BryantNEC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
MemphisAmer0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
MississippiSEC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
TroySB0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
IUPUISum0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
NorthwesternB100.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
Penn St.B100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
RutgersB100.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
UCLAP120.020.0287.8887.880.020.02