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Through games of Dec 20, 2014.


Furman

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:279.1
Current RPI:249
Expected SOS:204
Current SOS:106
Current Record:2-7
Expected Record:9-18
Current Conf Record:1-0
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-8
Current OOC Record:1-7
Expected OOC Record:1-8
Expected OOC RPI:286
Expected OOC SOS:40



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-12153.40.07%
14-13170.80.30%
13-14190.61.36%
12-15212.14.36%
11-16235.19.32%
10-17256.515.48%
9-18276.320.57%
8-19293.620.45%
7-20307.415.56%
6-21318.08.37%
5-22326.23.10%
4-23333.20.88%
3-24337.70.15%
2-25341.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Furman.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14College of Charleston (184.8)CAAH40-75L0%0.0
11-19Appalachian St. (261.5)SBH84-65W100%0.0
11-22UC Davis (129.4)BWH55-58L0%0.0
11-26Duke (4.4)ACCA93-54L0%0.0
12-1Liberty (318.4)BSthA66-52L0%0.0
12-6Samford (329.4)SCH74-64W100%0.0
12-9TCU (63.4)B12A80-69L0%0.0
12-13Gardner Webb (166.3)BSthA74-68L0%0.0
12-19Florida Gulf Coast (98.1)ASunA83-78L0%0.0
12-22Minnesota (42.8)B10A0-02%-23.6
1-3Chattanooga (221.6)SCA0-025%-7.8
1-5Western Carolina (252.3)SCA0-026%-7.5
1-8UNC Greensboro (287.8)SCH0-062%3.5
1-10VMI (271.8)SCH0-060%2.9
1-15Mercer (243.7)SCA0-027%-7.2
1-17The Citadel (315.1)SCA0-038%-3.7
1-22Wofford (65.9)SCA0-07%-17.5
1-29East Tennessee St. (130.5)SCH0-037%-4.0
1-31Samford (329.4)SCA0-050%-0.1
2-5Chattanooga (221.6)SCH0-052%0.6
2-7Mercer (243.7)SCH0-054%1.1
2-12VMI (271.8)SCA0-032%-5.4
2-14East Tennessee St. (130.5)SCA0-015%-12.3
2-19The Citadel (315.1)SCH0-065%4.6
2-22UNC Greensboro (287.8)SCA0-034%-4.9
2-26Western Carolina (252.3)SCH0-053%0.8
2-28Wofford (65.9)SCH0-022%-9.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Furman's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Furman's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Furman.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
FurmanSC27.7126.4717.1431.26-18.21-9.92
The CitadelSC0.254.8414.2930.80-0.18-1.86
VMISC0.234.8233.3337.73-0.08-1.18
Western CarolinaSC0.004.7920.0039.47-0.00-1.01
WoffordSC0.004.7977.7874.790.002.37
SamfordSC5.564.7636.3630.64-1.52-1.84
ChattanoogaSC0.004.7640.0048.51-0.00-0.14
MercerSC0.004.7644.4442.86-0.00-0.68
UNC GreensboroSC0.004.7520.0034.02-0.00-1.52
East Tennessee St.SC0.004.7571.4362.930.001.23
College of CharlestonCAA5.901.9640.0043.27-1.18-0.26
Gardner WebbBSth5.811.9228.5748.40-2.49-0.06
DukeACC5.561.92100.0086.655.561.40
MinnesotaB100.001.9280.0066.800.000.64
LibertyBSth5.561.8914.2932.90-3.97-0.64
Appalachian St.SB5.561.8542.8635.87-0.79-0.52
Florida Gulf CoastASun5.561.8575.0069.012.780.70
TCUB125.561.85100.0066.635.560.62
UC DavisBW5.561.8585.7166.773.970.62
PresbyterianBSth0.510.320.008.60-0.51-0.27
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.2714.2944.44-0.00-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.2642.8649.51-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.350.2657.1455.330.050.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.230.2633.3328.79-0.08-0.11
Virginia TechACC0.690.2460.0038.030.14-0.06
CampbellBSth0.250.2325.0043.93-0.13-0.03
West VirginiaB120.250.2290.9170.080.210.09
WinthropBSth0.000.2125.0044.27-0.00-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.000.2020.0025.85-0.00-0.10
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.2057.1470.520.000.08
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.310.2037.5063.95-0.080.06
JacksonvilleASun0.930.2010.0018.05-0.74-0.13
High PointBSth0.000.1766.6761.790.000.04
RadfordBSth0.250.1755.5658.650.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1662.5059.050.000.03
PurdueB100.230.1666.6759.370.080.03
ElonCAA0.280.1644.4451.07-0.030.00
WisconsinB100.280.1690.9188.840.230.12
Wake ForestACC0.230.1545.4537.60-0.02-0.04
NavyPat0.000.1420.0022.16-0.00-0.08
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.1418.1830.76-0.00-0.05
LipscombASun0.000.1322.2238.44-0.00-0.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.1333.3343.14-0.00-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.1355.5646.290.00-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1344.4449.14-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.280.1366.6767.300.090.05
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.230.1318.1822.49-0.15-0.07
Georgia St.SB0.000.1362.5072.070.000.06
PittsburghACC0.230.1370.0051.780.090.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.1372.7374.850.000.06
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.1333.3346.17-0.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.1257.1457.100.000.02
Air ForceMWC0.350.1150.0055.890.000.01
MaristMAAC0.310.109.0916.15-0.25-0.07
North FloridaASun0.350.1050.0057.820.000.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.1054.5541.980.00-0.02
MarylandB100.000.1090.9168.230.000.04
ArmyPat0.280.1077.7868.780.150.04
IonaMAAC0.000.1060.0069.200.000.04
Seton HallBE0.350.1090.0067.380.280.03
IndianaB100.000.1081.8263.330.000.03
AlabamaSEC0.000.1066.6754.130.000.01
DelawareCAA0.350.090.008.56-0.35-0.08
FairfieldMAAC0.280.0940.0037.64-0.06-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.250.0944.4437.40-0.03-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0975.0061.480.000.02
StanfordP120.280.0966.6758.320.090.02
Texas A&MSEC0.250.0970.0061.320.100.02
HofstraCAA0.350.0970.0076.180.140.05
Cal PolyBW0.000.0737.5041.94-0.00-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0736.3637.85-0.00-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.690.0740.0043.04-0.14-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0750.0068.770.000.03
George WashingtonA100.000.0766.6765.500.000.02
HawaiiBW0.000.0766.6754.470.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0736.3650.71-0.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0716.6737.21-0.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0750.0071.260.000.03
StetsonASun0.000.0710.0027.17-0.00-0.03
UC IrvineBW0.000.0737.5046.38-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.0750.0043.310.00-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0763.6467.210.000.02
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0781.8273.180.000.03
VCUA100.000.0772.7375.740.000.04
OhioMAC0.660.0742.8637.71-0.09-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0733.3337.91-0.00-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0775.0066.220.000.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0745.4543.23-0.00-0.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0733.3343.83-0.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.350.0660.0043.890.07-0.01
LSUSEC0.350.0680.0063.910.210.02
Washington St.P120.250.0640.0028.13-0.05-0.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0642.8637.83-0.00-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0642.8648.87-0.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.000.0672.7367.960.000.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0011.59-0.00-0.05
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0633.3349.35-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.000.06100.0078.210.000.04
DartmouthIvy0.000.0650.0046.690.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0666.6762.580.000.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0637.5049.31-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0650.0047.880.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.000.0627.2732.45-0.00-0.02
PacificWCC0.000.0655.5638.270.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0616.6726.98-0.00-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0630.0039.59-0.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0655.5673.740.000.03
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0031.89-0.00-0.02
South DakotaSum0.000.0627.2738.30-0.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0650.0050.060.000.00
TroySB0.000.0633.3339.85-0.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.0630.0036.69-0.00-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0655.5655.710.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0666.6758.210.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0660.0057.890.000.01
CharlotteCUSA0.600.0654.5564.070.050.02
Georgia TechACC0.350.0680.0053.260.210.00
Austin PeayOVC0.230.0622.2229.80-0.13-0.02
IowaB100.000.0666.6759.420.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.230.0672.7367.520.110.02
NebraskaB100.000.0666.6744.720.00-0.01
Penn St.B100.000.0691.6755.310.000.01
UMKCWAC0.230.0620.0040.84-0.14-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.06100.0084.930.000.04
St. John'sBE0.000.0688.8965.170.000.02
BaylorB120.000.0690.0073.240.000.03
ConnecticutAmer0.530.0650.0058.070.000.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0622.2235.90-0.00-0.02
Iowa St.B120.000.0690.0065.480.000.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.0663.6455.660.000.01
KansasB120.000.0690.0070.680.000.02
Miami FLACC0.000.0681.8266.010.000.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.0670.0060.920.000.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0691.6777.120.000.03
OklahomaB120.000.0670.0062.710.000.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0688.8963.020.000.02
SyracuseACC0.000.0660.0058.120.000.01
TexasB120.000.0690.9179.980.000.04
Texas TechB120.000.0690.0055.360.000.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0660.0047.170.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.000.0663.6440.190.00-0.01
ArizonaP120.350.03100.0082.630.350.02
FIUCUSA0.310.0344.4450.41-0.030.00
Green BayHorz0.310.0375.0077.010.150.02
IdahoBSky0.350.0337.5052.01-0.090.00
MassachusettsA100.310.0354.5552.490.030.00
Miami OHMAC0.350.0330.0028.65-0.14-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.350.0316.6735.27-0.23-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0337.5056.46-0.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.350.0390.0082.310.280.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.0333.3341.02-0.00-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.310.0350.0054.170.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.350.030.008.00-0.35-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.310.0370.0059.660.120.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.350.0330.0043.15-0.14-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.350.0354.5548.260.03-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.350.0330.0038.57-0.14-0.01
XavierBE0.000.0372.7367.590.000.01
HamptonMEAC0.350.0345.4549.62-0.03-0.00
IllinoisB100.000.0375.0065.140.000.01
MichiganB100.000.0350.0040.450.00-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0325.0033.40-0.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0363.6442.810.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.000.0381.8282.250.000.02
RutgersB100.000.0354.5532.590.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0034.33-0.00-0.01
UMBCAE0.000.0318.1825.30-0.00-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0350.0051.710.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0366.6742.600.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.250.0333.3334.04-0.08-0.01
DavidsonA100.250.0388.8977.320.200.02
George MasonA100.250.0333.3330.21-0.08-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.009.06-0.00-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.250.0320.0044.37-0.15-0.00
MississippiSEC0.250.0370.0052.600.100.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.250.039.0917.12-0.21-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.250.0320.0046.47-0.15-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.250.030.0039.10-0.25-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.250.0327.2735.36-0.11-0.01
TempleAmer0.280.0363.6456.430.080.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0015.00-0.00-0.02
ToledoMAC0.000.0363.6461.520.000.01
UTSACUSA0.250.0337.5035.74-0.06-0.01
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0086.080.000.02