Furman

Conference:	SC
Expected RPI:	343.0
Current RPI:	343
Expected SOS:	327
Current SOS:	327
Current Record:	5-24
Expected Record:	5-24
Current Conf Record:	4-16
Expected Conf Record:	4-16
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	5-15
Current OOC Record:	1-8
Expected OOC Record:	1-8
Expected OOC RPI:	346
Expected OOC SOS:	338

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
5-24	343.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Furman.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Columbia (273.0)	Ivy	H	47-68	L	0%
11-16	Clemson (185.0)	ACC	H	55-72	L	0%
11-25	Mercer (137.0)	ASun	A	73-46	L	0%
11-28	Western Carolina (243.0)	SC	H	65-79	L	0%
12-1	Loyola Chicago (223.0)	Horz	A	77-50	L	0%
12-9	Presbyterian (340.0)	BSth	H	81-57	W	100%
12-15	Auburn (252.0)	SEC	A	64-50	L	0%
12-18	Wake Forest (170.0)	ACC	A	79-55	L	0%
12-22	Jacksonville (281.0)	ASun	A	65-53	L	0%
12-30	Southern Methodist (219.0)	CUSA	A	72-53	L	0%
1-5	College of Charleston (133.0)	SC	A	60-56	L	0%
1-12	Davidson (61.0)	SC	H	73-81	L	0%
1-14	Wofford (250.0)	SC	H	69-65	W	100%
1-17	Elon (174.0)	SC	A	73-59	L	0%
1-20	NC Greensboro (327.0)	SC	A	61-69	W	100%
1-24	Wofford (250.0)	SC	A	63-50	L	0%
1-31	Georgia Southern (266.0)	SC	H	81-74	W	100%
2-2	The Citadel (330.0)	SC	H	79-84	L	0%
2-7	NC Greensboro (327.0)	SC	H	65-88	L	0%
2-9	Elon (174.0)	SC	H	60-64	L	0%
2-11	Appalachian St. (265.0)	SC	A	72-66	L	0%
2-14	Chattanooga (292.0)	SC	A	83-49	L	0%
2-16	Samford (291.0)	SC	H	53-64	L	0%
2-20	Davidson (61.0)	SC	A	73-36	L	0%
2-23	Georgia Southern (266.0)	SC	A	78-61	L	0%
2-28	The Citadel (330.0)	SC	A	68-57	L	0%
3-2	College of Charleston (133.0)	SC	H	50-74	L	0%
3-8	Samford (291.0)	SC	N	51-55	W	100%
3-9	Appalachian St. (265.0)	SC	N	74-60	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Furman's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Furman's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Furman.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Furman	SC	26.34	26.34	16.03	16.03	-17.89	-17.89
Davidson	SC	4.44	4.44	76.67	76.67	2.37	2.37
College of Charleston	SC	4.44	4.44	70.97	70.97	1.86	1.86
Elon	SC	4.39	4.39	60.71	60.71	0.94	0.94
Wofford	SC	4.38	4.38	37.93	37.93	-1.06	-1.06
Georgia Southern	SC	4.38	4.38	37.93	37.93	-1.06	-1.06
Appalachian St.	SC	4.38	4.38	40.74	40.74	-0.81	-0.81
NC Greensboro	SC	4.36	4.36	22.22	22.22	-2.42	-2.42
The Citadel	SC	4.34	4.34	15.38	15.38	-3.01	-3.01
Samford	SC	4.31	4.31	31.03	31.03	-1.63	-1.63
Western Carolina	SC	2.75	2.75	36.67	36.67	-0.73	-0.73
Chattanooga	SC	2.72	2.72	34.48	34.48	-0.85	-0.85
Presbyterian	BSth	1.87	1.87	17.86	17.86	-1.20	-1.20
Clemson	ACC	1.84	1.84	40.00	40.00	-0.37	-0.37
Wake Forest	ACC	1.84	1.84	40.00	40.00	-0.37	-0.37
Mercer	ASun	1.84	1.84	64.52	64.52	0.53	0.53
Jacksonville	ASun	1.83	1.83	37.93	37.93	-0.44	-0.44
Columbia	Ivy	1.78	1.78	36.00	36.00	-0.50	-0.50
Auburn	SEC	1.78	1.78	25.81	25.81	-0.86	-0.86
Loyola Chicago	Horz	1.72	1.72	44.83	44.83	-0.18	-0.18
Southern Methodist	CUSA	1.72	1.72	43.33	43.33	-0.23	-0.23
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.29	0.29	40.62	40.62	-0.05	-0.05
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.23	0.23	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.23	0.23	43.75	43.75	-0.03	-0.03
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.23	0.23	60.00	60.00	0.05	0.05
High Point	BSth	0.21	0.21	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.20	0.20	10.00	10.00	-0.16	-0.16
Duke	ACC	0.19	0.19	84.38	84.38	0.13	0.13
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.19	0.19	68.75	68.75	0.07	0.07
Florida St.	ACC	0.19	0.19	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.19	0.19	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.17	0.17	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.17	0.17	70.59	70.59	0.07	0.07
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.17	0.17	31.03	31.03	-0.06	-0.06
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.17	0.17	42.31	42.31	-0.03	-0.03
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.17	0.17	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
North Florida	ASun	0.17	0.17	38.71	38.71	-0.04	-0.04
Maryland	ACC	0.17	0.17	64.71	64.71	0.05	0.05
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.15	0.15	39.29	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
East Carolina	CUSA	0.15	0.15	53.85	53.85	0.01	0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.14	0.14	39.29	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.14	0.14	20.00	20.00	-0.08	-0.08
Virginia	ACC	0.14	0.14	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Lipscomb	ASun	0.14	0.14	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Richmond	A10	0.14	0.14	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.12	0.12	29.63	29.63	-0.05	-0.05
Princeton	Ivy	0.12	0.12	59.26	59.26	0.02	0.02
Radford	BSth	0.12	0.12	34.48	34.48	-0.04	-0.04
Campbell	BSth	0.12	0.12	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.12	0.12	52.94	52.94	0.01	0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.11	0.11	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Valparaiso	Horz	0.11	0.11	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Miami FL	ACC	0.11	0.11	81.82	81.82	0.07	0.07
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.11	0.11	29.03	29.03	-0.05	-0.05
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.11	0.11	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Stetson	ASun	0.11	0.11	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.11	0.11	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.11	0.11	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Louisville	BE	0.11	0.11	85.29	85.29	0.08	0.08
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.11	0.11	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Cornell	Ivy	0.10	0.10	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Colgate	Pat	0.09	0.09	34.38	34.38	-0.03	-0.03
NC Asheville	BSth	0.09	0.09	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.09	0.09	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.09	0.09	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.09	0.09	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Tennessee	SEC	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.08	0.08	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	28.12	28.12	-0.04	-0.04
Austin Peay	OVC	0.08	0.08	20.69	20.69	-0.05	-0.05
Memphis	CUSA	0.08	0.08	88.24	88.24	0.06	0.06
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Xavier	A10	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.08	0.08	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.08	0.08	93.75	93.75	0.07	0.07
Alabama	SEC	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
New Mexico	MWC	0.08	0.08	85.29	85.29	0.06	0.06
Brown	Ivy	0.07	0.07	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.07	0.07	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.07	0.07	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Yale	Ivy	0.07	0.07	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.06	0.06	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.06	0.06	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.06	0.06	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
James Madison	CAA	0.06	0.06	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.06	0.06	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Rutgers	BE	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.06	0.06	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Liberty	BSth	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Butler	A10	0.06	0.06	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Rider	MAAC	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
DePaul	BE	0.06	0.06	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.06	0.06	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.06	0.06	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Colorado	P12	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Georgia St.	CAA	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Houston	CUSA	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	17.86	17.86	-0.04	-0.04
North Carolina	ACC	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Rice	CUSA	0.06	0.06	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Utah	P12	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Montana	BSky	0.05	0.05	79.31	79.31	0.03	0.03
Texas A&M	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
West Virginia	B12	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.03	-0.03
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Vermont	AE	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
American	Pat	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Army	Pat	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Bucknell	Pat	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Holy Cross	Pat	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Long Island	NEC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
San Francisco	WCC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Villanova	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	57.69	57.69	0.00	0.00
Longwood	BSth	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
Chicago St.	GWC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Kansas	B12	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	7.14	7.14	-0.02	-0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
South Florida	BE	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Troy	SB	0.03	0.03	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.03	0.03	35.71	35.71	-0.01	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Arizona	P12	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Central Florida	CUSA	0.03	0.03	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Hofstra	CAA	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Purdue	B10	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Texas Christian	B12	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Texas St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Wichita St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Wyoming	MWC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Denver	WAC	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
George Mason	CAA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Grambling	SWAC	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	-0.03	-0.03
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01