Furman

Conference:	SC
Expected RPI:	230.9
Current RPI:	233
Expected SOS:	300
Current SOS:	291
Current Record:	10-11
Expected Record:	13-14
Current Conf Record:	6-6
Expected Conf Record:	9-9
Probability of Auto Bid:	2.50%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	11-6
Current OOC Record:	4-5
Expected OOC Record:	4-5
Expected OOC RPI:	243
Expected OOC SOS:	309

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
16-11	182.9	1.62%
15-12	199.9	10.96%
14-13	216.9	26.67%
13-14	233.7	33.06%
12-15	251.5	20.46%
11-16	268.2	6.28%
10-17	279.6	0.94%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Furman.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-14	Columbia (150.3)	Ivy	A	58-62	W	100%	0.0
11-17	Mercer (98.0)	ASun	H	46-66	L	0%	0.0
11-20	Loyola Chicago (310.1)	Horz	H	63-51	W	100%	0.0
11-25	Clemson (148.3)	ACC	A	59-49	L	0%	0.0
11-30	Elon (223.5)	SC	A	77-70	L	0%	0.0
12-3	Davidson (64.0)	SC	A	86-65	L	0%	0.0
12-11	Jacksonville (285.8)	ASun	H	85-79	W	100%	0.0
12-17	Western Kentucky (240.2)	SB	A	63-76	W	100%	0.0
12-20	Presbyterian (253.5)	BSth	A	75-71	L	0%	0.0
12-23	Georgia (132.0)	SEC	A	64-50	L	0%	0.0
12-30	NC Wilmington (207.8)	CAA	A	72-61	L	0%	0.0
1-5	The Citadel (331.4)	SC	H	77-45	W	100%	0.0
1-7	College of Charleston (128.5)	SC	H	43-66	L	0%	0.0
1-12	Appalachian St. (249.5)	SC	A	56-50	L	0%	0.0
1-14	Western Carolina (259.9)	SC	A	55-58	W	100%	0.0
1-19	Georgia Southern (228.1)	SC	H	64-54	W	100%	0.0
1-21	Wofford (173.4)	SC	H	72-79	L	0%	0.0
1-26	College of Charleston (128.5)	SC	A	63-69	W	100%	0.0
1-28	The Citadel (331.4)	SC	A	58-67	W	100%	0.0
2-1	Davidson (64.0)	SC	H	53-71	L	0%	0.0
2-4	NC Greensboro (256.3)	SC	H	93-85	W	100%	0.0
2-6	Georgia Southern (228.1)	SC	A	0-0		43%	-1.8
2-9	Appalachian St. (249.5)	SC	H	0-0		66%	4.4
2-11	Western Carolina (259.9)	SC	H	0-0		71%	6.2
2-18	Samford (254.7)	SC	A	0-0		48%	-0.4
2-23	Chattanooga (285.8)	SC	H	0-0		63%	3.8
2-25	Wofford (173.4)	SC	A	0-0		26%	-7.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Furman's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Furman's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Furman.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Furman	SC	26.47	26.35	50.51	51.13	0.27	0.59
Wofford	SC	3.25	4.70	57.14	55.78	0.46	0.54
Davidson	SC	5.36	4.63	73.68	74.97	2.54	2.31
College of Charleston	SC	5.44	4.61	59.09	60.69	0.99	0.99
The Citadel	SC	5.42	4.59	10.53	12.36	-4.28	-3.46
Georgia Southern	SC	2.93	4.56	42.11	42.39	-0.46	-0.69
Western Carolina	SC	2.94	4.54	36.36	38.94	-0.80	-1.00
Appalachian St.	SC	2.92	4.49	31.58	37.06	-1.08	-1.16
Samford	SC	0.88	2.85	33.33	34.63	-0.29	-0.88
Chattanooga	SC	0.82	2.82	27.27	34.96	-0.37	-0.85
Elon	SC	3.09	2.81	47.37	45.57	-0.16	-0.25
NC Greensboro	SC	3.10	2.78	36.36	34.66	-0.85	-0.85
Mercer	ASun	2.49	2.01	69.57	70.66	0.97	0.83
Jacksonville	ASun	2.48	2.01	18.18	22.78	-1.58	-1.10
Clemson	ACC	2.59	1.98	47.62	46.58	-0.12	-0.14
Presbyterian	BSth	2.55	1.98	38.10	41.57	-0.61	-0.33
Georgia	SEC	2.48	1.95	42.86	39.17	-0.35	-0.42
NC Wilmington	CAA	2.49	1.92	36.36	33.82	-0.68	-0.62
Columbia	Ivy	2.44	1.89	57.89	56.83	0.39	0.26
Loyola Chicago	Horz	2.38	1.85	20.00	22.08	-1.43	-1.03
Western Kentucky	SB	2.38	1.85	36.36	35.71	-0.65	-0.53
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.27	0.29	52.38	52.86	0.01	0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.27	0.29	40.91	39.56	-0.05	-0.06
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.32	0.26	55.00	60.33	0.03	0.05
Tennessee	SEC	0.37	0.26	45.45	44.66	-0.03	-0.03
Wake Forest	ACC	0.22	0.23	47.83	43.66	-0.01	-0.03
Winthrop	BSth	0.21	0.23	34.78	34.61	-0.07	-0.07
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.37	0.23	72.22	71.97	0.17	0.10
High Point	BSth	0.28	0.20	31.82	32.75	-0.10	-0.07
Georgia St.	CAA	0.16	0.17	66.67	69.69	0.05	0.07
Campbell	BSth	0.22	0.17	56.00	55.65	0.03	0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.27	0.16	73.91	68.58	0.13	0.06
Duke	ACC	0.27	0.16	86.36	83.09	0.20	0.11
Bradley	MVC	0.11	0.16	24.00	24.86	-0.06	-0.08
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.21	0.16	80.00	78.06	0.12	0.09
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.10	0.16	8.70	11.67	-0.08	-0.12
NC Asheville	BSth	0.21	0.16	68.18	67.64	0.07	0.06
Valparaiso	Horz	0.12	0.14	65.22	63.61	0.04	0.04
South Alabama	SB	0.11	0.14	52.38	52.87	0.01	0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.17	0.13	45.00	44.15	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.12	0.13	86.96	83.16	0.09	0.09
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.17	0.13	54.55	56.84	0.02	0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.17	0.13	65.00	60.02	0.05	0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.13	95.83	92.57	0.05	0.11
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.11	0.13	70.83	64.42	0.05	0.04
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.17	0.13	69.57	65.87	0.07	0.04
Belmont	ASun	0.15	0.13	69.57	73.28	0.06	0.06
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.20	0.13	50.00	48.90	0.00	-0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.16	0.13	72.73	71.71	0.07	0.05
George Mason	CAA	0.15	0.13	76.00	72.50	0.08	0.06
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.13	71.43	69.05	0.02	0.05
Lipscomb	ASun	0.15	0.13	43.48	43.82	-0.02	-0.02
North Florida	ASun	0.10	0.13	45.83	46.68	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.15	0.13	54.55	56.09	0.01	0.02
Stetson	ASun	0.15	0.13	31.82	31.31	-0.05	-0.05
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.16	0.12	39.13	42.12	-0.03	-0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.11	0.10	50.00	51.73	0.00	0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.11	0.10	56.52	48.81	0.01	-0.00
Army	Pat	0.17	0.10	40.91	41.72	-0.03	-0.02
Denver	SB	0.17	0.10	70.83	72.23	0.07	0.04
East Carolina	CUSA	0.11	0.10	44.44	41.71	-0.01	-0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.17	0.10	40.00	40.18	-0.03	-0.02
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.12	0.10	14.29	17.17	-0.09	-0.07
Princeton	Ivy	0.12	0.10	47.37	52.87	-0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.06	0.10	50.00	51.53	0.00	0.00
Butler	Horz	0.06	0.10	50.00	50.80	0.00	0.00
Navy	Pat	0.16	0.10	9.52	13.19	-0.13	-0.07
Liberty	BSth	0.11	0.10	27.27	27.21	-0.05	-0.04
Richmond	A10	0.17	0.10	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
Maryland	ACC	0.05	0.10	59.09	50.82	0.01	0.00
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.10	34.78	38.77	-0.02	-0.02
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.05	0.10	83.33	84.76	0.03	0.07
Holy Cross	Pat	0.16	0.09	40.91	42.05	-0.03	-0.02
Florida	SEC	0.11	0.09	82.61	77.63	0.07	0.05
Louisville	BE	0.15	0.09	78.26	72.66	0.09	0.04
South Florida	BE	0.06	0.07	54.55	48.60	0.01	-0.00
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.06	0.07	38.10	37.86	-0.01	-0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.06	0.07	69.57	61.31	0.02	0.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.06	0.07	60.87	59.76	0.01	0.01
Brown	Ivy	0.00	0.07	27.27	23.80	-0.00	-0.03
Charlotte	A10	0.11	0.07	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.11	0.07	81.82	80.43	0.07	0.04
Cornell	Ivy	0.12	0.07	36.84	41.45	-0.03	-0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.11	0.07	47.83	49.03	-0.00	-0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.06	0.07	90.48	87.91	0.05	0.05
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.06	0.07	30.00	30.06	-0.02	-0.03
Kansas	B12	0.11	0.07	78.26	78.39	0.06	0.04
Wichita St.	MVC	0.00	0.07	82.61	80.42	0.00	0.04
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.06	0.07	35.00	39.38	-0.02	-0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.06	0.07	56.52	57.72	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.11	0.07	41.67	40.61	-0.02	-0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.00	0.07	72.22	63.19	0.00	0.02
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.07	8.70	13.10	-0.04	-0.05
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.07	26.32	29.79	-0.02	-0.03
Manhattan	MAAC	0.06	0.06	68.00	69.07	0.02	0.02
North Texas	SB	0.11	0.06	50.00	50.01	0.00	0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.06	52.38	57.86	0.00	0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.11	0.06	38.10	40.81	-0.03	-0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.11	0.06	69.57	65.47	0.04	0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.05	0.06	47.83	50.65	-0.00	0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.06	19.05	22.37	-0.03	-0.04
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.05	0.06	36.36	39.72	-0.01	-0.01
Florida International	SB	0.10	0.06	33.33	37.16	-0.03	-0.02
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.06	32.00	35.39	-0.02	-0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.06	73.91	68.43	0.02	0.02
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.05	0.06	34.78	35.20	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.05	0.06	30.00	31.54	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.06	62.50	61.50	0.01	0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.05	0.06	60.00	58.29	0.01	0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.06	35.00	40.78	-0.02	-0.01
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.06	65.22	60.58	0.02	0.01
Towson	CAA	0.10	0.06	4.00	5.26	-0.10	-0.06
Troy	SB	0.05	0.06	28.57	30.17	-0.02	-0.03
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.06	61.90	58.59	0.01	0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.10	0.06	12.50	13.44	-0.08	-0.05
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.06	75.00	73.97	0.03	0.03
Alabama	SEC	0.11	0.06	68.18	69.10	0.04	0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.11	0.06	47.62	48.82	-0.01	-0.00
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.05	0.06	59.09	57.28	0.01	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.11	0.06	34.78	32.06	-0.03	-0.02
Tulsa	CUSA	0.10	0.06	60.87	59.05	0.02	0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.10	0.06	71.43	66.60	0.04	0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.10	0.06	45.45	46.99	-0.01	-0.00
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.10	0.06	73.91	75.49	0.05	0.03
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.06	81.82	76.80	0.03	0.03
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.06	56.52	55.20	0.01	0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.06	0.03	85.71	78.05	0.04	0.02
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.00	0.03	76.19	75.94	0.00	0.02
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.00	0.03	57.14	60.75	0.00	0.01
American	Pat	0.06	0.03	65.22	63.79	0.02	0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.06	0.03	17.39	19.81	-0.04	-0.02
Chicago St.	GWC	0.06	0.03	4.76	9.95	-0.05	-0.03
Colgate	Pat	0.06	0.03	30.43	29.50	-0.02	-0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.06	0.03	68.18	63.99	0.02	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.06	0.03	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.06	0.03	33.33	34.47	-0.02	-0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.06	0.03	8.70	12.13	-0.05	-0.03
Fordham	A10	0.06	0.03	40.91	34.50	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.06	0.03	72.73	64.43	0.03	0.01
Indiana	B10	0.00	0.03	75.00	75.78	0.00	0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.00	0.03	34.78	38.42	-0.00	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.06	0.03	72.73	68.28	0.03	0.01
Lafayette	Pat	0.06	0.03	43.48	42.95	-0.01	-0.00
Long Island	NEC	0.06	0.03	70.83	71.05	0.02	0.01
Longwood	ind	0.00	0.03	30.00	27.84	-0.00	-0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.06	0.03	59.09	57.76	0.01	0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.06	0.03	34.78	33.43	-0.02	-0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.06	0.03	66.67	68.05	0.02	0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.00	0.03	54.55	57.69	0.00	0.01
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.03	43.48	44.25	-0.01	-0.00
Arkansas St.	SB	0.00	0.03	37.50	38.33	-0.00	-0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.03	38.10	42.78	-0.01	-0.00
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.03	60.87	60.96	0.01	0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.03	79.17	78.10	0.03	0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.03	80.95	77.38	0.03	0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.03	62.50	62.06	0.01	0.01
IUPUI	Sum	0.05	0.03	34.78	35.50	-0.02	-0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.03	54.17	54.75	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.03	8.70	8.99	-0.04	-0.03
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.03	79.17	75.98	0.03	0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.03	59.09	59.72	0.01	0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	100.00	94.55	0.05	0.03
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.03	33.33	37.25	-0.02	-0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.03	47.83	48.56	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.03	62.50	62.49	0.01	0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.05	0.03	27.78	29.58	-0.02	-0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	56.52	53.10	0.01	0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.03	40.91	39.82	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.03	30.00	37.30	-0.02	-0.01
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.03	66.67	68.55	0.02	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.00	0.03	69.57	65.15	0.00	0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.03	30.43	26.44	-0.02	-0.01
California	P12	0.05	0.03	75.00	74.61	0.03	0.02
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.03	66.67	62.65	0.02	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	35.29	39.85	-0.02	-0.01
Hawaii	WAC	0.05	0.03	57.14	53.12	0.01	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.03	54.17	49.44	0.00	-0.00
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.03	63.64	56.71	0.01	0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.00	0.03	78.26	72.34	0.00	0.01
Missouri	B12	0.05	0.03	91.30	87.18	0.04	0.02
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.03	37.50	41.54	-0.01	-0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	62.65	0.02	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	63.74	0.02	0.01
Southern California	P12	0.05	0.03	25.00	25.13	-0.03	-0.02
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.05	0.03	43.48	43.31	-0.01	-0.00
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.03	65.22	63.74	0.02	0.01