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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Furman

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:339.0
Current RPI:339
Expected SOS:344
Current SOS:344
Current Record:7-20
Expected Record:7-20
Current Conf Record:3-14
Expected Conf Record:3-14
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-12
Current OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC RPI:267
Expected OOC SOS:331



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
7-20339.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Furman.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Gardner Webb (241.0)BSthH75-64W100%0.0
11-15Florida Gulf Coast (146.0)ASunH69-70L0%0.0
11-23College of Charleston (242.0)CAAA89-55L0%0.0
11-26Virginia Tech (246.0)ACCA75-54L0%0.0
12-4Fordham (226.0)A10A79-48L0%0.0
12-7Presbyterian (349.0)BSthA59-74W100%0.0
12-14Clemson (79.0)ACCA71-35L0%0.0
12-20Liberty (311.0)BSthH86-83W100%0.0
12-28California (63.0)P12A90-60L0%0.0
12-30UC Davis (326.0)BWA65-75W100%0.0
1-4Chattanooga (243.0)SCH63-72L0%0.0
1-6UNC Greensboro (301.0)SCA90-82L0%0.0
1-9Davidson (126.0)SCH56-73L0%0.0
1-11Samford (313.0)SCA57-55L0%0.0
1-16Georgia Southern (303.0)SCA88-81L0%0.0
1-18The Citadel (345.0)SCA71-76W100%0.0
1-25Wofford (153.0)SCH52-76L0%0.0
2-1Chattanooga (243.0)SCA67-52L0%0.0
2-3Samford (313.0)SCH68-76L0%0.0
2-8Davidson (126.0)SCA65-50L0%0.0
2-10Western Carolina (221.0)SCA83-75L0%0.0
2-15The Citadel (345.0)SCH76-67W100%0.0
2-20Wofford (153.0)SCA70-50L0%0.0
2-22Appalachian St. (335.0)SCH68-53W100%0.0
2-24Elon (162.0)SCH49-78L0%0.0
2-27Georgia Southern (303.0)SCH73-82L0%0.0
3-7Georgia Southern (303.0)SCN65-50L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Furman's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Furman's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Furman.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
FurmanSC26.3326.3326.8326.83-12.20-12.20
Georgia SouthernSC6.416.4132.1432.14-2.29-2.29
WoffordSC4.724.7255.5655.560.520.52
The CitadelSC4.644.6414.8114.81-3.26-3.26
DavidsonSC4.614.6158.6258.620.790.79
SamfordSC4.554.5528.5728.57-1.95-1.95
ChattanoogaSC4.484.4848.1548.15-0.17-0.17
Western CarolinaSC2.862.8650.0050.000.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC2.792.7935.7135.71-0.80-0.80
Appalachian St.SC2.722.7220.0020.00-1.63-1.63
ElonSC2.692.6953.5753.570.190.19
PresbyterianBSth2.232.2313.7913.79-1.61-1.61
Gardner WebbBSth2.072.0751.7251.720.070.07
College of CharlestonCAA1.981.9840.0040.00-0.40-0.40
LibertyBSth1.941.9428.5728.57-0.83-0.83
Virginia TechACC1.941.9426.6726.67-0.91-0.91
ClemsonACC1.941.9461.2961.290.440.44
Florida Gulf CoastASun1.911.9161.2961.290.430.43
CaliforniaP121.851.8558.0658.060.300.30
FordhamA101.851.8530.0030.00-0.74-0.74
UC DavisBW1.851.8525.0025.00-0.93-0.93
RadfordBSth0.340.3460.0060.000.070.07
CampbellBSth0.340.3432.1432.14-0.12-0.12
WinthropBSth0.320.3256.6756.670.040.04
VMIBSth0.310.3155.5655.560.030.03
High PointBSth0.290.2950.0050.000.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.280.2859.3859.380.050.05
Miami FLACC0.240.2451.5251.520.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.220.2248.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.210.2151.5251.520.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.210.2160.0060.000.040.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.210.2113.7913.79-0.15-0.15
DukeACC0.210.2176.4776.470.110.11
StetsonASun0.210.2122.5822.58-0.11-0.11
William & MaryCAA0.190.1961.2961.290.040.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.190.1933.3333.33-0.06-0.06
VirginiaACC0.180.1882.3582.350.120.12
CharlotteCUSA0.160.1654.8454.840.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.160.1614.2914.29-0.11-0.11
North Carolina St.ACC0.160.1661.7661.760.040.04
UABCUSA0.150.1555.1755.170.020.02
VCUA100.150.1576.4776.470.080.08
DrexelCAA0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.150.1571.8871.880.070.07
JacksonvilleASun0.150.1535.7135.71-0.04-0.04
Old DominionCUSA0.150.1548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.150.1553.1253.120.010.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.150.1553.1253.120.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.150.1548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
Northern KentuckyASun0.120.1230.0030.00-0.05-0.05
UCLAP120.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
Georgia St.SB0.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
South Carolina St.MEAC0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
SyracuseACC0.120.1284.3884.380.080.08
USC UpstateASun0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
IUPUISum0.090.0910.3410.34-0.08-0.08
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0958.0658.060.020.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Saint LouisA100.090.0980.6580.650.060.06
Austin PeayOVC0.090.0935.7135.71-0.03-0.03
IonaMAAC0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
NebraskaB100.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
UC IrvineBW0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.090.0967.8667.860.030.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.0920.6920.69-0.05-0.05
DelawareCAA0.090.0973.5373.530.040.04
HowardMEAC0.090.0919.3519.35-0.06-0.06
James MadisonCAA0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
MassachusettsA100.090.0975.0075.000.050.05
ColoradoP120.090.0967.6567.650.030.03
StanfordP120.090.0963.6463.640.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.090.0921.2121.21-0.05-0.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.0925.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Oral RobertsSlnd0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
DaytonA100.090.0969.7069.700.030.03
MarylandACC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
Arizona St.P120.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Florida St.ACC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
PittsburghACC0.090.0973.5373.530.040.04
MercerASun0.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
DuquesneA100.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0670.9770.970.030.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0646.1546.15-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.060.0662.0762.070.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
MinnesotaB100.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
NavyPat0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.060.0662.5062.500.020.02
UC RiversideBW0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.03-0.03
MaristMAAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0634.6234.62-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0693.1093.100.050.05
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckySB0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
UtahP120.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
George MasonA100.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
HofstraCAA0.060.0630.3030.30-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
NortheasternCAA0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.060.06100.00100.000.060.06
Notre DameACC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
ArizonaP120.060.0688.2488.240.040.04
ArkansasSEC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
LipscombASun0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
USCP120.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
WashingtonP120.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Washington St.P120.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.040.0481.8281.820.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.040.0483.8783.870.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
IdahoWAC0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
PortlandWCC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.030.0370.3770.370.010.01
RutgersAmer0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
SeattleWAC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
ColgatePat0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0386.2186.210.020.02
La SalleA100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LehighPat0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleAmer0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
Seton HallBE0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
SienaMAAC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
AuburnSEC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
DenverSum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0341.1841.18-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.030.033.573.57-0.03-0.03
TempleAmer0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01