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Through games of Feb 4, 2016.


Furman

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:161.5
Current RPI:171
Expected SOS:194
Current SOS:230
Current Record:12-10
Expected Record:16-13
Current Conf Record:8-3
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-5
Current OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC RPI:196
Expected OOC SOS:152



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-10100.40.35%
18-11118.64.31%
17-12136.316.60%
16-13154.431.10%
15-14171.830.28%
14-15188.914.20%
13-16206.02.95%
12-17222.70.20%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Furman.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Presbyterian (330.2)BSthH63-53W100%0.0
11-17Appalachian St. (253.8)SBA70-79W100%0.0
11-19Charlotte (231.6)CUSAA77-68L0%0.0
11-21Connecticut (38.4)AmerA83-58L0%0.0
11-26Texas A&M Corpus Chris (120.8)SlndN69-73L0%0.0
11-27Mount St. Mary's (225.9)NECN69-60W100%0.0
12-8Liberty (278.4)BSthH79-56W100%0.0
12-12Gardner Webb (208.9)BSthH53-73L0%0.0
12-19Dayton (14.6)A10A70-50L0%0.0
12-22Navy (175.0)PatA62-49L0%0.0
12-29UNC Asheville (139.6)BSthA67-65L0%0.0
1-2VMI (330.9)SCH85-57W100%0.0
1-5UNC Greensboro (252.6)SCA67-66L0%0.0
1-9Chattanooga (46.9)SCH70-55W100%0.0
1-11Samford (244.7)SCH77-57W100%0.0
1-14Mercer (122.8)SCA69-65L0%0.0
1-16The Citadel (302.9)SCA89-86L0%0.0
1-23Wofford (200.6)SCH63-62W100%0.0
1-25VMI (330.9)SCA56-68W100%0.0
1-28Western Carolina (247.0)SCH62-60W100%0.0
1-30East Tennessee St. (130.2)SCH74-70W100%0.0
2-4Samford (244.7)SCA65-67W100%0.0
2-6Chattanooga (46.9)SCA0-014%-11.6
2-8UNC Greensboro (252.6)SCH0-075%7.5
2-11The Citadel (302.9)SCH0-090%14.0
2-13Mercer (122.8)SCH0-050%-0.1
2-20Wofford (200.6)SCA0-041%-2.4
2-25East Tennessee St. (130.2)SCA0-036%-4.1
2-27Western Carolina (247.0)SCA0-053%0.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Furman's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Furman's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Furman.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
FurmanSC26.4326.4358.1457.294.303.86
The CitadelSC3.004.4931.5829.57-1.10-1.84
WoffordSC2.954.4740.0044.42-0.59-0.50
East Tennessee St.SC3.014.4760.0059.820.600.88
MercerSC2.994.4670.0070.261.201.81
Western CarolinaSC2.944.4626.3230.40-1.39-1.75
UNC GreensboroSC2.944.4626.3231.35-1.39-1.66
VMISC5.204.4518.7520.63-3.25-2.61
SamfordSC5.114.4445.0046.57-0.51-0.30
ChattanoogaSC2.874.3990.0087.772.303.32
PresbyterianBSth2.672.1027.7828.45-1.19-0.91
UNC AshevilleBSth2.552.0061.9064.200.610.57
Gardner WebbBSth2.561.9540.0045.24-0.51-0.19
LibertyBSth2.491.9433.3334.12-0.83-0.62
NavyPat2.461.8563.6464.020.670.52
Appalachian St.SB2.431.8428.5731.44-1.04-0.68
CharlotteCUSA2.381.8133.3340.26-0.79-0.35
DaytonA102.331.7985.0080.571.631.09
ConnecticutAmer2.271.7271.4371.540.970.74
Mount St. Mary'sNEC2.271.7243.4848.41-0.30-0.05
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd2.271.7272.2269.311.010.67
CampbellBSth0.450.3830.0030.38-0.18-0.15
High PointBSth0.380.3557.8961.470.060.08
Charleston SouthernBSth0.370.3125.0029.29-0.19-0.13
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.330.2857.8957.330.050.04
RadfordBSth0.330.2852.3853.610.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.270.2519.0522.38-0.17-0.14
WinthropBSth0.270.1965.0063.360.080.05
Ohio St.B100.280.1858.3354.130.050.02
Austin PeayOVC0.280.1834.7837.55-0.08-0.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.210.1822.7324.28-0.12-0.09
ElonCAA0.270.1854.5553.030.020.01
DavidsonA100.220.1857.8955.420.030.02
TulaneAmer0.260.1733.3332.42-0.09-0.06
USC UpstateASun0.220.1523.8125.04-0.11-0.08
College of CharlestonCAA0.160.1561.9059.920.040.03
North CarolinaACC0.160.1586.3680.670.120.09
TexasB120.270.1568.1861.760.100.03
ButlerBE0.180.1368.1866.480.070.04
IllinoisB100.110.1247.8344.51-0.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.160.1250.0048.260.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.110.1226.3233.83-0.05-0.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.160.1226.0925.57-0.08-0.06
Morehead St.OVC0.110.1252.3854.240.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.110.1266.6765.400.040.04
VanderbiltSEC0.160.1259.0962.730.030.03
Georgia TechACC0.110.1254.5552.770.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.160.1247.6247.86-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.110.1273.9173.090.050.05
Georgia SouthernSB0.110.1236.8437.31-0.03-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.110.1240.0044.99-0.02-0.01
UCFAmer0.110.1255.0047.190.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.100.1230.0029.47-0.04-0.05
South AlabamaSB0.150.1235.0034.92-0.05-0.03
TroySB0.150.1220.0023.76-0.09-0.06
ClemsonACC0.110.0963.6462.330.030.02
IPFWSum0.110.0973.9170.210.050.04
Western MichiganMAC0.110.0935.0036.61-0.03-0.02
ArmyPat0.100.0954.5555.990.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.110.0926.0930.34-0.05-0.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.110.0968.7574.720.040.04
ArkansasSEC0.110.0950.0054.850.000.01
George MasonA100.050.0936.3635.32-0.01-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.150.0956.5253.440.020.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.100.0934.7841.60-0.03-0.01
Texas St.SB0.110.0941.1840.27-0.02-0.02
AmericanPat0.100.0931.8232.71-0.04-0.03
BucknellPat0.100.0952.3856.750.000.01
LehighPat0.100.0930.0036.11-0.04-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.100.0931.8234.36-0.04-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.100.0813.6413.79-0.07-0.06
Sacred HeartNEC0.100.0831.8235.17-0.04-0.02
Penn St.B100.130.0747.8343.65-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.130.0752.1747.260.01-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.110.0610.5325.36-0.09-0.03
RichmondA100.060.0652.3853.670.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0633.3333.55-0.00-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.060.0642.8635.05-0.01-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0628.5734.73-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0650.0053.080.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0660.0056.080.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.0655.5650.840.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0653.3355.190.000.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0672.7368.840.020.02
LamarSlnd0.110.0633.3332.69-0.04-0.02
LipscombASun0.050.0621.7427.63-0.03-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0629.4138.46-0.02-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0652.1749.340.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.060.0680.0070.310.030.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0647.3750.50-0.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0685.7176.020.040.03
StetsonASun0.060.0625.0029.75-0.03-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.110.0681.8281.000.070.04
Wake ForestACC0.060.0645.4542.13-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.110.0677.2771.670.060.03
IowaB100.110.0681.8279.900.070.04
VCUA100.050.0677.2776.770.030.03
William & MaryCAA0.110.0670.0069.350.040.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0633.3334.18-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.050.0642.8637.22-0.01-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0668.4265.480.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0650.0046.870.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.0621.0523.70-0.06-0.03
Green BayHorz0.050.0657.1457.880.010.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0638.8942.86-0.01-0.01
IdahoBSky0.100.0657.1457.940.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.100.0681.8277.490.070.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0627.2732.87-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.050.0636.3630.98-0.01-0.02
NebraskaB100.100.0652.1751.550.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0626.3236.92-0.03-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0675.0071.270.030.03
VillanovaBE0.050.0686.3685.330.040.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.100.0670.0068.920.040.02
UTSACUSA0.060.0614.2913.98-0.04-0.04
Boston UniversityPat0.100.0652.1754.440.000.01
ColgatePat0.050.0642.8643.53-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.050.0666.6758.770.020.01
Holy CrossPat0.100.0640.9139.71-0.02-0.01
La SalleA100.110.0621.0520.90-0.06-0.03
LafayettePat0.050.0623.8125.23-0.03-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.000.0654.5555.960.000.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0638.1033.39-0.01-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0670.0069.090.020.02
UMBCAE0.100.0620.8325.00-0.06-0.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0690.0086.110.040.04
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0645.0041.83-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.050.0626.0927.58-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0645.4541.98-0.00-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0652.3853.800.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.050.0661.1158.310.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.100.0677.2776.120.050.03
HoustonAmer0.050.0672.7368.010.020.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.090.0650.0050.870.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.100.0657.8961.910.020.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0647.8350.56-0.000.00
MarylandB100.100.0686.9681.750.070.04
MemphisAmer0.100.0659.0958.570.020.01
MichiganB100.100.0672.7367.970.050.02
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0654.5561.940.000.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0625.0028.19-0.00-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.090.0625.0029.52-0.05-0.02
SMUAmer0.000.0690.4885.540.000.04
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0647.6249.34-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.100.0666.6762.710.030.01
TempleAmer0.050.0661.9058.400.010.01
TulsaAmer0.050.0663.6459.930.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0665.0068.740.020.02
WagnerNEC0.050.0661.9063.360.010.01
WashingtonP120.100.0668.1862.170.040.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0647.6247.96-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.060.0365.2256.540.020.00
LSUSEC0.050.0363.6459.440.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.060.0331.5836.17-0.02-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0316.6724.28-0.04-0.02
DrexelCAA0.050.0314.2918.59-0.04-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0340.9139.23-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0318.7533.16-0.04-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0310.0015.31-0.05-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0318.7526.10-0.04-0.01
Notre DameACC0.050.0368.1863.710.020.01
PrincetonIvy0.050.0368.7573.150.020.01
WisconsinB100.060.0360.8755.900.010.00
AlabamaSEC0.050.0357.1452.310.010.00
FloridaSEC0.050.0368.1867.800.020.01
FordhamA100.050.0357.8954.300.010.00
MassachusettsA100.050.0342.8639.88-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0328.5728.87-0.02-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0378.2680.340.030.02
North FloridaASun0.050.0368.1869.350.020.01
OregonP120.050.0381.8278.220.030.02
PennIvy0.050.0331.2532.68-0.02-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0381.8277.420.000.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0314.2916.31-0.04-0.02
XavierBE0.050.0390.9184.430.040.02
BinghamtonAE0.050.0322.7326.19-0.03-0.01
FIUCUSA0.050.0342.8645.93-0.01-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0323.8128.31-0.03-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.050.0360.0061.320.010.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0368.1865.430.020.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0369.5768.670.020.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0375.0072.210.030.01
MaineAE0.050.0336.3635.58-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0380.9575.610.030.01
New HampshireAE0.050.0352.6351.510.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0320.8320.11-0.00-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0333.3333.65-0.02-0.01
UABCUSA0.050.0381.8278.320.030.02
UMass LowellAE0.050.0333.3332.89-0.02-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0350.0050.040.000.00