live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Furman

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:167.0
Current RPI:167
Expected SOS:191
Current SOS:191
Current Record:16-15
Expected Record:16-15
Current Conf Record:12-8
Expected Conf Record:12-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-5
Current OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC RPI:200
Expected OOC SOS:171



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-15167.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Furman.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Presbyterian (319.0)BSthH63-53W100%0.0
11-17Appalachian St. (259.0)SBA70-79W100%0.0
11-19Charlotte (234.0)CUSAA77-68L0%0.0
11-21Connecticut (32.0)AmerA83-58L0%0.0
11-26Texas A&M Corpus Chris (84.0)SlndN69-73L0%0.0
11-27Mount St. Mary's (245.0)NECN69-60W100%0.0
12-8Liberty (264.0)BSthH79-56W100%0.0
12-12Gardner Webb (210.0)BSthH53-73L0%0.0
12-19Dayton (21.0)A10A70-50L0%0.0
12-22Navy (216.0)PatA62-49L0%0.0
12-29UNC Asheville (137.0)BSthA67-65L0%0.0
1-2VMI (316.0)SCH85-57W100%0.0
1-5UNC Greensboro (237.0)SCA67-66L0%0.0
1-9Chattanooga (50.0)SCH70-55W100%0.0
1-11Samford (252.0)SCH77-57W100%0.0
1-14Mercer (194.0)SCA69-65L0%0.0
1-16The Citadel (322.0)SCA89-86L0%0.0
1-23Wofford (199.0)SCH63-62W100%0.0
1-25VMI (316.0)SCA56-68W100%0.0
1-28Western Carolina (166.0)SCH62-60W100%0.0
1-30East Tennessee St. (85.0)SCH74-70W100%0.0
2-4Samford (252.0)SCA65-67W100%0.0
2-6Chattanooga (50.0)SCA62-54L0%0.0
2-8UNC Greensboro (237.0)SCH79-72W100%0.0
2-11The Citadel (322.0)SCH95-75W100%0.0
2-13Mercer (194.0)SCH85-74W100%0.0
2-20Wofford (199.0)SCA77-73L0%0.0
2-25East Tennessee St. (85.0)SCA80-75L0%0.0
2-27Western Carolina (166.0)SCA73-62L0%0.0
3-5UNC Greensboro (237.0)SCN80-64W100%0.0
3-6East Tennessee St. (85.0)SCN84-76L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Furman's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Furman's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Furman.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
FurmanSC26.5226.5254.7054.702.492.49
East Tennessee St.SC5.895.8965.5265.521.831.83
UNC GreensboroSC5.775.7738.4638.46-1.33-1.33
ChattanoogaSC4.404.4086.6786.673.233.23
MercerSC4.354.3555.1755.170.450.45
Western CarolinaSC4.324.3242.8642.86-0.62-0.62
VMISC4.314.3124.0024.00-2.24-2.24
SamfordSC4.304.3041.3841.38-0.74-0.74
The CitadelSC4.294.2922.2222.22-2.38-2.38
WoffordSC4.274.2742.8642.86-0.61-0.61
PresbyterianBSth1.941.9429.6329.63-0.79-0.79
UNC AshevilleBSth1.911.9163.3363.330.510.51
LibertyBSth1.831.8335.7135.71-0.52-0.52
Gardner WebbBSth1.811.8144.8344.83-0.19-0.19
NavyPat1.761.7654.8454.840.170.17
Appalachian St.SB1.721.7230.0030.00-0.69-0.69
CharlotteCUSA1.691.6940.6240.62-0.32-0.32
DaytonA101.661.6677.4277.420.910.91
ConnecticutAmer1.611.6169.7069.700.640.64
Mount St. Mary'sNEC1.611.6143.7543.75-0.20-0.20
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd1.611.6175.8675.860.830.83
CampbellBSth0.360.3633.3333.33-0.12-0.12
High PointBSth0.360.3664.2964.290.100.10
Charleston SouthernBSth0.290.2922.2222.22-0.16-0.16
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.270.2757.6957.690.040.04
RadfordBSth0.270.2748.2848.28-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.250.2568.9768.970.090.09
LongwoodBSth0.220.2223.3323.33-0.12-0.12
ElonCAA0.190.1946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.160.1682.3582.350.110.11
Ohio St.B100.160.1660.6160.610.030.03
Austin PeayOVC0.160.1648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.160.1661.2961.290.040.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.150.1531.0331.03-0.06-0.06
TulaneAmer0.150.1535.2935.29-0.05-0.05
USC UpstateASun0.130.1325.0025.00-0.07-0.07
JacksonvilleASun0.130.1342.8642.86-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
UCFAmer0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.130.1358.6258.620.020.02
TexasB120.130.1362.5062.500.030.03
TennesseeSEC0.130.1344.1244.12-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.130.1360.7160.710.030.03
CincinnatiAmer0.120.1268.7568.750.050.05
ButlerBE0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
IPFWSum0.110.1170.9770.970.050.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.110.1182.1482.140.070.07
VanderbiltSEC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
IllinoisB100.100.1044.1244.12-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.100.1020.6920.69-0.06-0.06
Louisiana MonroeSB0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
LehighPat0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Texas St.SB0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
George MasonA100.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
LafayettePat0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0876.6776.670.040.04
VillanovaBE0.080.0885.2985.290.050.05
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
AmericanPat0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
BucknellPat0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
RiceCUSA0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.070.0713.7913.79-0.05-0.05
Sacred HeartNEC0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
TempleAmer0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Penn St.B100.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
LamarSlnd0.050.0526.9226.92-0.03-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
HarvardIvy0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0556.0056.000.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
PittsburghACC0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
George WashingtonA100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
IowaB100.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Georgia St.SB0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
IdahoBSky0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
NebraskaB100.050.0547.0647.06-0.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
UTSACUSA0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
ColgatePat0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
La SalleA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Saint LouisA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
UMBCAE0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
BryantNEC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0562.8662.860.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
WashingtonP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
MarylandB100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
MichiganB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
SMUAmer0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
TulsaAmer0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0377.7877.780.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0320.8320.83-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
DrexelCAA0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
FloridaSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
FordhamA100.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
MassachusettsA100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0379.4179.410.010.01
North FloridaASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
OregonP120.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
PennIvy0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0311.1111.11-0.02-0.02
XavierBE0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
Miami FLACC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
MaineAE0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.020.0224.2424.24-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01