live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Furman

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:185.5
Current RPI:263
Expected SOS:232
Current SOS:230
Current Record:1-4
Expected Record:14-15
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-4
Current OOC Record:1-4
Expected OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC RPI:194
Expected OOC SOS:206



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-874.50.15%
20-990.80.40%
19-10105.61.77%
18-11119.74.55%
17-12136.48.88%
16-13153.213.80%
15-14172.117.97%
14-15191.217.33%
13-16210.915.60%
12-17230.110.48%
11-18248.35.48%
10-19266.32.36%
9-20282.90.99%
8-21296.90.17%
7-22310.40.05%
6-23314.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Furman.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Presbyterian (321.5)BSthA73-71L0%0.0
11-14UAB (128.6)CUSAA74-84W100%0.0
11-17Georgia (65.1)SECA84-78L0%0.0
11-22UNC Asheville (105.8)BSthH58-64L0%0.0
11-30Winthrop (119.7)BSthA58-57L0%0.0
12-3Navy (221.2)PatH0-069%5.8
12-6Liberty (191.4)BSthA0-050%0.0
12-10Gardner Webb (214.7)BSthA0-051%0.2
12-16South Carolina St. (304.2)MEACH0-091%16.4
12-19Tennessee Tech (304.6)OVCA0-062%3.6
12-22Michigan (45.6)B10A0-06%-18.5
12-31The Citadel (312.2)SCH0-089%14.7
1-2Mercer (163.6)SCH0-058%2.4
1-5Samford (178.5)SCA0-039%-3.3
1-7Chattanooga (104.3)SCA0-024%-8.6
1-14Wofford (257.2)SCA0-051%0.2
1-19East Tennessee St. (73.8)SCH0-028%-6.9
1-21VMI (316.6)SCH0-086%12.9
1-25Western Carolina (291.4)SCH0-090%15.2
1-28UNC Greensboro (159.8)SCA0-035%-4.5
2-2Mercer (163.6)SCA0-037%-3.8
2-4The Citadel (312.2)SCA0-076%8.5
2-9Chattanooga (104.3)SCH0-042%-2.4
2-11Samford (178.5)SCH0-059%2.9
2-13VMI (316.6)SCA0-071%6.7
2-15Western Carolina (291.4)SCA0-078%9.1
2-18UNC Greensboro (159.8)SCH0-056%1.7
2-22East Tennessee St. (73.8)SCA0-014%-13.1
2-25Wofford (257.2)SCH0-070%6.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Furman's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Furman's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Furman.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
FurmanSC29.2126.4330.4353.08-11.431.63
UNC GreensboroSC0.834.5466.6758.730.280.79
VMISC0.834.480.0021.13-0.83-2.59
Western CarolinaSC0.004.4616.6719.15-0.00-2.75
The CitadelSC0.834.4540.0027.78-0.17-1.98
East Tennessee St.SC0.004.4383.3380.820.002.73
MercerSC0.004.4350.0053.100.000.27
SamfordSC0.004.4357.1456.190.000.55
ChattanoogaSC0.004.4266.6770.020.001.77
WoffordSC0.004.420.0033.13-0.00-1.49
PresbyterianBSth10.002.1620.0024.33-6.00-1.11
UNC AshevilleBSth10.832.1240.0063.59-2.170.58
Gardner WebbBSth0.832.0720.0048.34-0.50-0.07
LibertyBSth0.002.0340.0050.73-0.000.03
WinthropBSth10.001.9750.0069.370.000.76
NavyPat0.001.7928.5744.06-0.00-0.21
GeorgiaSEC10.831.7860.0052.812.170.10
MichiganB100.001.7271.4365.610.000.54
South Carolina St.MEAC0.001.720.0028.50-0.00-0.74
Tennessee TechOVC0.001.7214.2928.32-0.00-0.75
UABCUSA10.001.7266.6764.073.330.49
CampbellBSth0.000.5025.0033.54-0.00-0.16
High PointBSth0.000.4650.0051.260.000.01
RadfordBSth0.000.4333.3336.31-0.00-0.12
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.4025.0038.72-0.00-0.09
LongwoodBSth0.000.3125.0024.66-0.00-0.16
TennesseeSEC0.000.2125.0034.47-0.00-0.07
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1857.1447.320.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.1883.3359.600.000.03
DaytonA100.000.1666.6772.440.000.07
Virginia TechACC0.000.1585.7162.920.000.04
Miami FLACC0.000.1571.4365.740.000.05
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.1528.5739.44-0.00-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1562.5056.500.000.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.1528.5730.29-0.00-0.06
Ohio St.B100.000.1585.7172.660.000.07
AuburnSEC0.000.1583.3355.200.000.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.130.0034.18-0.00-0.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.120.0024.19-0.00-0.06
West VirginiaB120.000.1283.3380.550.000.08
USC UpstateASun0.830.1233.3338.20-0.28-0.03
ColgatePat0.000.1220.0041.31-0.00-0.02
ClemsonACC0.830.1266.6753.460.280.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.1266.6739.720.00-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.1220.0041.93-0.00-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.12100.0080.780.000.07
FloridaSEC0.000.1287.5075.320.000.06
MarquetteBE0.000.1271.4363.090.000.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.090.0024.32-0.00-0.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0916.6731.91-0.00-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0975.0047.510.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.090.0023.46-0.00-0.05
Florida St.ACC1.000.0985.7162.410.710.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0950.0045.410.00-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.0942.8647.69-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0933.3326.75-0.00-0.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0966.6775.370.000.05
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0940.0041.65-0.00-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0950.0061.810.000.02
UMBCAE0.000.0980.0055.340.000.01
HowardMEAC0.000.090.0038.26-0.00-0.02
LSUSEC0.000.0971.4349.770.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0957.1448.860.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0914.2929.15-0.00-0.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.710.090.0013.30-0.71-0.06
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0971.4343.020.00-0.01
IllinoisB101.000.0957.1442.660.14-0.01
KansasB122.380.0985.7176.171.700.05
IndianaB100.000.0983.3375.060.000.04
NebraskaB100.000.0950.0043.610.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0950.0061.590.000.02
TexasB120.000.0950.0036.240.00-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0018.22-0.00-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.060.0038.35-0.00-0.01
RichmondA100.000.0657.1448.600.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.830.0640.0055.44-0.170.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0657.1436.050.00-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0685.7168.390.000.02
BradleyMVC0.000.0650.0029.280.00-0.03
ColoradoP120.000.0671.4359.850.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0650.0047.560.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.000.0671.4368.970.000.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.0650.0051.820.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0620.0032.60-0.00-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.0685.7180.010.000.04
StetsonASun0.000.0628.5728.26-0.00-0.03
TCUB120.000.06100.0059.480.000.01
VermontAE0.000.0662.5071.630.000.03
VirginiaACC0.000.06100.0082.550.000.04
Wake ForestACC0.000.0671.4352.370.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.710.06100.0089.040.710.05
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0666.6766.100.000.02
VCUA100.830.0685.7178.150.600.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.060.0034.23-0.00-0.02
AkronMAC0.000.0683.3369.840.000.02
AmericanPat0.000.0616.6735.65-0.00-0.02
ArmyPat0.000.0633.3345.58-0.00-0.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0640.0061.37-0.000.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0650.0053.530.000.00
BucknellPat0.000.0675.0067.660.000.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0685.7180.960.000.04
DavidsonA100.000.0683.3368.880.000.02
DetroitHorz0.000.060.0019.51-0.00-0.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0642.8646.78-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.000.0657.1443.680.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0657.1442.940.00-0.01
La SalleA100.000.0660.0051.780.000.00
LafayettePat0.000.0633.3331.87-0.00-0.02
LehighPat0.000.0633.3367.01-0.000.02
LipscombASun0.000.0614.2933.07-0.00-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.000.0633.3340.49-0.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0633.3333.15-0.00-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0671.4368.100.000.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0642.8637.25-0.00-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.000.0628.5727.50-0.00-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.000.0683.3361.150.000.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0614.2937.52-0.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0683.3370.360.000.02
UC IrvineBW0.000.0650.0054.690.000.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0683.3377.170.000.03
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0620.0036.00-0.00-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.060.0042.55-0.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0657.1469.300.000.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.0625.0056.92-0.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0666.6756.020.000.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0616.6733.69-0.00-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0620.0034.39-0.00-0.02
George WashingtonA101.550.0657.1444.160.22-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.06100.0086.250.000.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0685.7173.010.000.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0642.8634.17-0.00-0.02
WisconsinB100.000.0675.0073.840.000.03
Boise St.MWC0.830.0350.0058.980.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0316.6736.35-0.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0357.1459.480.000.01
ManhattanMAAC1.000.0333.3338.19-0.33-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0371.4371.570.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0316.6737.09-0.00-0.01
New HampshireAE1.000.0350.0057.480.000.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0366.6770.140.000.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0371.4386.030.000.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0350.0055.850.000.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0383.3376.370.000.02
Kansas St.B120.000.0385.7155.890.000.00
LamarSlnd0.000.0360.0043.970.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0024.77-0.00-0.02
PittsburghACC0.000.0385.7155.550.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0325.0063.95-0.000.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0325.0040.81-0.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.0328.5750.20-0.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0366.6756.360.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0342.8642.47-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0350.0043.490.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.000.0383.3358.030.000.00
HartfordAE0.000.0312.5022.55-0.00-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.0350.0033.010.00-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0342.8661.90-0.000.01
OhioMAC0.000.0380.0068.320.000.01
PennIvy0.000.0340.0057.97-0.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0058.600.000.01
SienaMAAC0.830.0328.5750.51-0.360.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0357.1440.590.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0350.0038.430.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0375.0054.320.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.0383.3362.840.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.710.030.0024.25-0.71-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0366.6751.090.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0366.6761.340.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0340.0067.95-0.000.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0385.7159.740.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0371.4346.010.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0350.0045.920.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0340.0030.80-0.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0383.3378.430.000.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0366.6765.810.000.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0385.7169.010.000.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0333.3323.33-0.00-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0325.0056.71-0.000.00
TroySB0.710.0333.3332.23-0.24-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0325.0043.26-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0328.5728.46-0.00-0.01
IowaB100.000.0342.8644.33-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.000.0328.5747.72-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.000.0385.7156.490.000.00
MinnesotaB100.000.0385.7165.670.000.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0312.5048.98-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0371.4366.220.000.01
Penn St.B100.000.0362.5043.960.00-0.00
PurdueB100.000.0371.4374.450.000.01
RutgersB100.000.0383.3344.770.00-0.00
UCLAP120.000.03100.0083.550.000.02