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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.


Furman

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:230.9
Current RPI:233
Expected SOS:300
Current SOS:291
Current Record:10-11
Expected Record:13-14
Current Conf Record:6-6
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Probability of Auto Bid:2.50%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-6
Current OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC RPI:243
Expected OOC SOS:309



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-11182.91.62%
15-12199.910.96%
14-13216.926.67%
13-14233.733.06%
12-15251.520.46%
11-16268.26.28%
10-17279.60.94%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Furman.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Columbia (150.3)IvyA58-62W100%0.0
11-17Mercer (98.0)ASunH46-66L0%0.0
11-20Loyola Chicago (310.1)HorzH63-51W100%0.0
11-25Clemson (148.3)ACCA59-49L0%0.0
11-30Elon (223.5)SCA77-70L0%0.0
12-3Davidson (64.0)SCA86-65L0%0.0
12-11Jacksonville (285.8)ASunH85-79W100%0.0
12-17Western Kentucky (240.2)SBA63-76W100%0.0
12-20Presbyterian (253.5)BSthA75-71L0%0.0
12-23Georgia (132.0)SECA64-50L0%0.0
12-30NC Wilmington (207.8)CAAA72-61L0%0.0
1-5The Citadel (331.4)SCH77-45W100%0.0
1-7College of Charleston (128.5)SCH43-66L0%0.0
1-12Appalachian St. (249.5)SCA56-50L0%0.0
1-14Western Carolina (259.9)SCA55-58W100%0.0
1-19Georgia Southern (228.1)SCH64-54W100%0.0
1-21Wofford (173.4)SCH72-79L0%0.0
1-26College of Charleston (128.5)SCA63-69W100%0.0
1-28The Citadel (331.4)SCA58-67W100%0.0
2-1Davidson (64.0)SCH53-71L0%0.0
2-4NC Greensboro (256.3)SCH93-85W100%0.0
2-6Georgia Southern (228.1)SCA0-043%-1.8
2-9Appalachian St. (249.5)SCH0-066%4.4
2-11Western Carolina (259.9)SCH0-071%6.2
2-18Samford (254.7)SCA0-048%-0.4
2-23Chattanooga (285.8)SCH0-063%3.8
2-25Wofford (173.4)SCA0-026%-7.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Furman's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Furman's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Furman.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
FurmanSC26.4726.3550.5151.130.270.59
WoffordSC3.254.7057.1455.780.460.54
DavidsonSC5.364.6373.6874.972.542.31
College of CharlestonSC5.444.6159.0960.690.990.99
The CitadelSC5.424.5910.5312.36-4.28-3.46
Georgia SouthernSC2.934.5642.1142.39-0.46-0.69
Western CarolinaSC2.944.5436.3638.94-0.80-1.00
Appalachian St.SC2.924.4931.5837.06-1.08-1.16
SamfordSC0.882.8533.3334.63-0.29-0.88
ChattanoogaSC0.822.8227.2734.96-0.37-0.85
ElonSC3.092.8147.3745.57-0.16-0.25
NC GreensboroSC3.102.7836.3634.66-0.85-0.85
MercerASun2.492.0169.5770.660.970.83
JacksonvilleASun2.482.0118.1822.78-1.58-1.10
ClemsonACC2.591.9847.6246.58-0.12-0.14
PresbyterianBSth2.551.9838.1041.57-0.61-0.33
GeorgiaSEC2.481.9542.8639.17-0.35-0.42
NC WilmingtonCAA2.491.9236.3633.82-0.68-0.62
ColumbiaIvy2.441.8957.8956.830.390.26
Loyola ChicagoHorz2.381.8520.0022.08-1.43-1.03
Western KentuckySB2.381.8536.3635.71-0.65-0.53
East Tennessee St.ASun0.270.2952.3852.860.010.02
South CarolinaSEC0.270.2940.9139.56-0.05-0.06
Charleston SouthernBSth0.320.2655.0060.330.030.05
TennesseeSEC0.370.2645.4544.66-0.03-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.220.2347.8343.66-0.01-0.03
WinthropBSth0.210.2334.7834.61-0.07-0.07
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.370.2372.2271.970.170.10
High PointBSth0.280.2031.8232.75-0.10-0.07
Georgia St.CAA0.160.1766.6769.690.050.07
CampbellBSth0.220.1756.0055.650.030.02
MassachusettsA100.270.1673.9168.580.130.06
DukeACC0.270.1686.3683.090.200.11
BradleyMVC0.110.1624.0024.86-0.06-0.08
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.210.1680.0078.060.120.09
Kennesaw St.ASun0.100.168.7011.67-0.08-0.12
NC AshevilleBSth0.210.1668.1867.640.070.06
ValparaisoHorz0.120.1465.2263.610.040.04
South AlabamaSB0.110.1452.3852.870.010.01
Virginia Military InstBSth0.170.1345.0044.15-0.02-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.120.1386.9683.160.090.09
PennsylvaniaIvy0.170.1354.5556.840.020.02
Miami FLACC0.170.1365.0060.020.050.03
KentuckySEC0.050.1395.8392.570.050.11
North Carolina St.ACC0.110.1370.8364.420.050.04
VanderbiltSEC0.170.1369.5765.870.070.04
BelmontASun0.150.1369.5773.280.060.06
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.200.1350.0048.900.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.160.1372.7371.710.070.05
George MasonCAA0.150.1376.0072.500.080.06
Kent St.MAC0.050.1371.4369.050.020.05
LipscombASun0.150.1343.4843.82-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.100.1345.8346.68-0.01-0.01
South Carolina UpstateASun0.150.1354.5556.090.010.02
StetsonASun0.150.1331.8231.31-0.05-0.05
Georgia TechACC0.160.1239.1342.12-0.03-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.110.1050.0051.730.000.00
AuburnSEC0.110.1056.5248.810.01-0.00
ArmyPat0.170.1040.9141.72-0.03-0.02
DenverSB0.170.1070.8372.230.070.04
East CarolinaCUSA0.110.1044.4441.71-0.01-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.170.1040.0040.18-0.03-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.120.1014.2917.17-0.09-0.07
PrincetonIvy0.120.1047.3752.87-0.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.1050.0051.530.000.00
ButlerHorz0.060.1050.0050.800.000.00
NavyPat0.160.109.5213.19-0.13-0.07
LibertyBSth0.110.1027.2727.21-0.05-0.04
RichmondA100.170.1050.0048.490.00-0.00
MarylandACC0.050.1059.0950.820.010.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.1034.7838.77-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeSB0.050.1083.3384.760.030.07
Holy CrossPat0.160.0940.9142.05-0.03-0.02
FloridaSEC0.110.0982.6177.630.070.05
LouisvilleBE0.150.0978.2672.660.090.04
South FloridaBE0.060.0754.5548.600.01-0.00
Southern MethodistCUSA0.060.0738.1037.86-0.01-0.02
MinnesotaB100.060.0769.5761.310.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0760.8759.760.010.01
BrownIvy0.000.0727.2723.80-0.00-0.03
CharlotteA100.110.0750.0049.450.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.110.0781.8280.430.070.04
CornellIvy0.120.0736.8441.45-0.03-0.01
DetroitHorz0.110.0747.8349.03-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.060.0790.4887.910.050.05
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.0730.0030.06-0.02-0.03
KansasB120.110.0778.2678.390.060.04
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0782.6180.420.000.04
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.060.0735.0039.38-0.02-0.01
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0756.5257.720.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.110.0741.6740.61-0.02-0.01
YaleIvy0.000.0772.2263.190.000.02
RadfordBSth0.050.078.7013.10-0.04-0.05
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0726.3229.79-0.02-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0668.0069.070.020.02
North TexasSB0.110.0650.0050.010.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0652.3857.860.000.01
ToledoMAC0.110.0638.1040.81-0.03-0.01
CincinnatiBE0.110.0669.5765.470.040.02
DelawareCAA0.050.0647.8350.65-0.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0619.0522.37-0.03-0.04
Florida AtlanticSB0.050.0636.3639.72-0.01-0.01
Florida InternationalSB0.100.0633.3337.16-0.03-0.02
HofstraCAA0.050.0632.0035.39-0.02-0.02
Iowa St.B120.050.0673.9168.430.020.02
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.050.0634.7835.20-0.02-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0630.0031.54-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0662.5061.500.010.01
Old DominionCAA0.050.0660.0058.290.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0635.0040.78-0.02-0.01
PurdueB100.050.0665.2260.580.020.01
TowsonCAA0.100.064.005.26-0.10-0.06
TroySB0.050.0628.5730.17-0.02-0.03
TulaneCUSA0.050.0661.9058.590.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.100.0612.5013.44-0.08-0.05
WisconsinB100.050.0675.0073.970.030.03
AlabamaSEC0.110.0668.1869.100.040.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.110.0647.6248.82-0.01-0.00
Louisiana St.SEC0.050.0659.0957.280.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.110.0634.7832.06-0.03-0.02
TulsaCUSA0.100.0660.8759.050.020.01
Central FloridaCUSA0.100.0671.4366.600.040.02
Morehead St.OVC0.100.0645.4546.99-0.01-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.100.0673.9175.490.050.03
VirginiaACC0.050.0681.8276.800.030.03
Virginia TechACC0.050.0656.5255.200.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0385.7178.050.040.02
Texas ArlingtonSlnd0.000.0376.1975.940.000.02
Texas San AntonioSlnd0.000.0357.1460.750.000.01
AmericanPat0.060.0365.2263.790.020.01
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0317.3919.81-0.04-0.02
Chicago St.GWC0.060.034.769.95-0.05-0.03
ColgatePat0.060.0330.4329.50-0.02-0.01
ConnecticutBE0.060.0368.1863.990.020.01
DePaulBE0.060.0350.0042.830.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0333.3334.47-0.02-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.060.038.7012.13-0.05-0.03
FordhamA100.060.0340.9134.50-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.060.0372.7364.430.030.01
IndianaB100.000.0375.0075.780.000.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0334.7838.42-0.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.060.0372.7368.280.030.01
LafayettePat0.060.0343.4842.95-0.01-0.00
Long IslandNEC0.060.0370.8371.050.020.01
Longwoodind0.000.0330.0027.84-0.00-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0359.0957.760.010.01
MaristMAAC0.060.0334.7833.43-0.02-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.060.0366.6768.050.020.01
Utah ValleyGWC0.000.0354.5557.690.000.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0343.4844.25-0.01-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0337.5038.33-0.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0338.1042.78-0.01-0.00
DaytonA100.050.0360.8760.960.010.01
DrexelCAA0.050.0379.1778.100.030.02
GeorgetownBE0.050.0380.9577.380.030.02
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0362.5062.060.010.01
IUPUISum0.050.0334.7835.50-0.02-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0354.1754.750.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.038.708.99-0.04-0.03
MarquetteBE0.050.0379.1775.980.030.02
MarshallCUSA0.050.0359.0959.720.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.03100.0094.550.050.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0333.3337.25-0.02-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0347.8348.56-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0362.5062.490.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0327.7829.58-0.02-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0356.5253.100.010.00
UABCUSA0.050.0340.9139.82-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0330.0037.30-0.02-0.01
ArizonaP120.050.0366.6768.550.020.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0369.5765.150.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0330.4326.44-0.02-0.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0375.0074.610.030.02
ColoradoP120.050.0366.6762.650.020.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0335.2939.85-0.02-0.01
HawaiiWAC0.050.0357.1453.120.010.00
IowaB100.050.0354.1749.440.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.050.0363.6456.710.010.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0378.2672.340.000.01
MissouriB120.050.0391.3087.180.040.02
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0337.5041.54-0.01-0.01
Notre DameBE0.050.0365.2262.650.020.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0365.2263.740.020.01
Southern CaliforniaP120.050.0325.0025.13-0.03-0.02
Texas El PasoCUSA0.050.0343.4843.31-0.01-0.00
XavierA100.050.0365.2263.740.020.01