Furman

Conference:	SC
Expected RPI:	97.0
Current RPI:	97
Expected SOS:	170
Current SOS:	170
Current Record:	21-10
Expected Record:	21-10
Current Conf Record:	14-6
Expected Conf Record:	14-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	14-1
Current OOC Record:	7-4
Expected OOC Record:	7-4
Expected OOC RPI:	72
Expected OOC SOS:	86

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
21-10	97.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Furman.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-14	Elon (205.0)	CAA	H	76-67	W	100%
11-18	Butler (41.0)	BE	A	82-65	L	0%
11-20	Duke (7.0)	ACC	A	92-63	L	0%
11-24	New Hampshire (312.0)	AE	N	64-78	W	100%
11-25	Northeastern (55.0)	CAA	N	67-78	W	100%
11-29	Winthrop (173.0)	BSth	H	74-93	L	0%
12-2	Tennessee Tech (158.0)	OVC	H	64-50	W	100%
12-5	UNC Asheville (130.0)	BSth	H	83-72	W	100%
12-9	South Carolina St. (331.0)	MEAC	H	101-72	W	100%
12-17	UNC Wilmington (245.0)	CAA	A	84-90	W	100%
12-20	Tennessee (8.0)	SEC	A	66-61	L	0%
12-30	VMI (313.0)	SC	A	57-87	W	100%
1-4	The Citadel (281.0)	SC	H	107-67	W	100%
1-6	Mercer (174.0)	SC	H	74-71	W	100%
1-10	Chattanooga (304.0)	SC	A	55-73	W	100%
1-13	Wofford (129.0)	SC	A	79-70	L	0%
1-18	East Tennessee St. (93.0)	SC	H	61-62	L	0%
1-20	Samford (296.0)	SC	H	78-67	W	100%
1-24	UNC Greensboro (65.0)	SC	A	71-61	L	0%
1-27	Western Carolina (215.0)	SC	H	100-66	W	100%
2-1	Mercer (174.0)	SC	A	73-85	W	100%
2-3	The Citadel (281.0)	SC	A	100-92	L	0%
2-7	UNC Greensboro (65.0)	SC	H	67-80	L	0%
2-10	Wofford (129.0)	SC	H	76-52	W	100%
2-15	Chattanooga (304.0)	SC	H	75-56	W	100%
2-17	Samford (296.0)	SC	A	79-94	W	100%
2-20	VMI (313.0)	SC	H	76-54	W	100%
2-23	Western Carolina (215.0)	SC	A	55-78	W	100%
2-25	East Tennessee St. (93.0)	SC	A	76-79	W	100%
3-3	Western Carolina (215.0)	SC	N	97-73	W	100%
3-4	East Tennessee St. (93.0)	SC	N	63-52	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Furman's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Furman's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Furman.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Furman	SC	26.51	26.51	68.79	68.79	9.97	9.97
East Tennessee St.	SC	5.86	5.86	72.41	72.41	2.63	2.63
Western Carolina	SC	5.77	5.77	40.74	40.74	-1.07	-1.07
UNC Greensboro	SC	4.46	4.46	75.86	75.86	2.30	2.30
Chattanooga	SC	4.35	4.35	27.59	27.59	-1.95	-1.95
Wofford	SC	4.32	4.32	60.71	60.71	0.93	0.93
The Citadel	SC	4.29	4.29	25.93	25.93	-2.07	-2.07
Mercer	SC	4.27	4.27	57.14	57.14	0.61	0.61
Samford	SC	4.24	4.24	28.57	28.57	-1.82	-1.82
VMI	SC	4.24	4.24	26.92	26.92	-1.96	-1.96
UNC Asheville	BSth	1.86	1.86	63.33	63.33	0.50	0.50
UNC Wilmington	CAA	1.79	1.79	31.03	31.03	-0.68	-0.68
Elon	CAA	1.79	1.79	41.38	41.38	-0.31	-0.31
Northeastern	CAA	1.75	1.75	70.97	70.97	0.73	0.73
Winthrop	BSth	1.69	1.69	55.56	55.56	0.19	0.19
Tennessee	SEC	1.67	1.67	75.00	75.00	0.83	0.83
Tennessee Tech	OVC	1.66	1.66	56.67	56.67	0.22	0.22
South Carolina St.	MEAC	1.64	1.64	27.59	27.59	-0.74	-0.74
Duke	ACC	1.64	1.64	78.12	78.12	0.92	0.92
Butler	BE	1.61	1.61	59.38	59.38	0.30	0.30
New Hampshire	AE	1.61	1.61	28.57	28.57	-0.69	-0.69
High Point	BSth	0.32	0.32	40.74	40.74	-0.06	-0.06
College of Charleston	CAA	0.29	0.29	77.42	77.42	0.16	0.16
Presbyterian	BSth	0.27	0.27	27.59	27.59	-0.12	-0.12
Delaware	CAA	0.26	0.26	38.71	38.71	-0.06	-0.06
Liberty	BSth	0.24	0.24	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.24	0.24	62.50	62.50	0.06	0.06
North Carolina	ACC	0.23	0.23	71.43	71.43	0.10	0.10
Radford	BSth	0.22	0.22	62.50	62.50	0.06	0.06
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.22	0.22	42.86	42.86	-0.03	-0.03
Longwood	BSth	0.22	0.22	13.33	13.33	-0.16	-0.16
James Madison	CAA	0.21	0.21	29.03	29.03	-0.09	-0.09
Drexel	CAA	0.21	0.21	37.50	37.50	-0.05	-0.05
Campbell	BSth	0.19	0.19	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.19	0.19	65.62	65.62	0.06	0.06
Clemson	ACC	0.18	0.18	71.88	71.88	0.08	0.08
Hofstra	CAA	0.18	0.18	60.00	60.00	0.04	0.04
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.16	0.16	28.57	28.57	-0.07	-0.07
Towson	CAA	0.16	0.16	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.16	0.16	58.62	58.62	0.03	0.03
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.15	0.15	68.97	68.97	0.06	0.06
Kentucky	SEC	0.15	0.15	70.59	70.59	0.06	0.06
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.14	0.14	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.13	0.13	9.68	9.68	-0.11	-0.11
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.13	0.13	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.13	0.13	35.48	35.48	-0.04	-0.04
Xavier	BE	0.12	0.12	84.85	84.85	0.09	0.09
UMBC	AE	0.11	0.11	67.74	67.74	0.04	0.04
Memphis	Amer	0.11	0.11	61.76	61.76	0.03	0.03
Ohio St.	B10	0.11	0.11	75.00	75.00	0.05	0.05
LSU	SEC	0.11	0.11	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Arkansas	SEC	0.10	0.10	67.65	67.65	0.04	0.04
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.10	0.10	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	6.67	6.67	-0.09	-0.09
Villanova	BE	0.10	0.10	88.24	88.24	0.07	0.07
VCU	A10	0.09	0.09	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
American	Pat	0.09	0.09	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Davidson	A10	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Hartford	AE	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Vermont	AE	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Appalachian St.	SB	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	Amer	0.08	0.08	88.24	88.24	0.06	0.06
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.08	0.08	24.24	24.24	-0.04	-0.04
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.08	0.08	84.38	84.38	0.06	0.06
Massachusetts	A10	0.08	0.08	39.39	39.39	-0.02	-0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.08	0.08	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
UCF	Amer	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
UT Arlington	SB	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Valparaiso	MVC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Boston University	Pat	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.08	0.08	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.08	0.08	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Georgia	SEC	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Florida	SEC	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Texas	B12	0.08	0.08	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	22.22	22.22	-0.04	-0.04
Virginia	ACC	0.08	0.08	93.94	93.94	0.07	0.07
Detroit	Horz	0.08	0.08	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Fordham	A10	0.08	0.08	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Georgia Southern	SB	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Troy	SB	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.07	0.07	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
St. John's	BE	0.07	0.07	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Albany	AE	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Binghamton	AE	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Maine	AE	0.06	0.06	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Marist	MAAC	0.06	0.06	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Stony Brook	AE	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
UMass Lowell	AE	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
California	P12	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	15.62	15.62	-0.04	-0.04
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	12.50	12.50	-0.04	-0.04
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Utah St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.04	-0.04
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Charlotte	CUSA	0.05	0.05	17.86	17.86	-0.03	-0.03
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia St.	SB	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	82.76	82.76	0.03	0.03
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Lipscomb	ASun	0.05	0.05	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Creighton	BE	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Notre Dame	ACC	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Portland St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Providence	BE	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.05	82.35	82.35	0.03	0.03
Colorado St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.03	0.03	23.08	23.08	-0.01	-0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
George Washington	A10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Holy Cross	Pat	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Canisius	MAAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
East Carolina	Amer	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
FIU	CUSA	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Milwaukee	Horz	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
South Florida	Amer	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Yale	Ivy	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Monmouth	MAAC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
TCU	B12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
USC Upstate	ASun	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Bucknell	Pat	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Stanford	P12	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Louisville	ACC	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Maryland	B10	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.02	0.02	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.02	0.02	87.88	87.88	0.02	0.02
Missouri	SEC	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.02	0.02	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Louis	A10	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.02	0.02	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.02	0.02	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Syracuse	ACC	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Utah	P12	0.02	0.02	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Utah Valley	WAC	0.02	0.02	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.02	0.02	20.00	20.00	-0.01	-0.01