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Through games of Jan 22, 2018.


Furman

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:88.2
Current RPI:110
Expected SOS:169
Current SOS:167
Current Record:12-6
Expected Record:20-9
Current Conf Record:5-2
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-1
Current OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:61
Expected OOC SOS:64



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-652.21.38%
22-761.08.70%
21-871.322.07%
20-984.030.81%
19-1099.922.60%
18-11118.110.52%
17-12137.33.26%
16-13159.60.54%
15-14176.70.09%
14-15191.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Furman.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Elon (143.6)CAAH76-67W100%0.0
11-18Butler (37.6)BEA82-65L0%0.0
11-20Duke (3.0)ACCA92-63L0%0.0
11-24New Hampshire (259.2)AEN64-78W100%0.0
11-25Northeastern (80.1)CAAN67-78W100%0.0
11-29Winthrop (163.3)BSthH74-93L0%0.0
12-2Tennessee Tech (169.8)OVCH64-50W100%0.0
12-5UNC Asheville (142.3)BSthH83-72W100%0.0
12-9South Carolina St. (329.3)MEACH101-72W100%0.0
12-17UNC Wilmington (262.5)CAAA84-90W100%0.0
12-20Tennessee (24.4)SECA66-61L0%0.0
12-30VMI (315.2)SCA57-87W100%0.0
1-4The Citadel (314.4)SCH107-67W100%0.0
1-6Mercer (170.4)SCH74-71W100%0.0
1-10Chattanooga (287.7)SCA55-73W100%0.0
1-13Wofford (118.2)SCA79-70L0%0.0
1-18East Tennessee St. (61.2)SCH61-62L0%0.0
1-20Samford (260.9)SCH78-67W100%0.0
1-24UNC Greensboro (118.0)SCA0-046%-1.1
1-27Western Carolina (223.1)SCH0-093%16.6
2-1Mercer (170.4)SCA0-042%-2.3
2-3The Citadel (314.4)SCA0-090%13.9
2-7UNC Greensboro (118.0)SCH0-068%5.3
2-10Wofford (118.2)SCH0-074%7.2
2-15Chattanooga (287.7)SCH0-091%14.9
2-17Samford (260.9)SCA0-074%7.1
2-20VMI (315.2)SCH0-096%20.0
2-23Western Carolina (223.1)SCA0-082%10.2
2-25East Tennessee St. (61.2)SCA0-031%-5.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Furman's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Furman's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Furman.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
FurmanSC26.3926.4266.6770.128.8010.63
UNC GreensboroSC0.644.5168.7569.520.241.76
ChattanoogaSC3.264.4623.5330.36-1.72-1.75
Western CarolinaSC0.564.4638.8937.09-0.12-1.15
MercerSC3.174.4547.0656.78-0.190.60
WoffordSC3.184.4566.6763.731.061.22
East Tennessee St.SC3.104.4376.4778.751.642.54
SamfordSC3.184.4329.4134.13-1.31-1.40
The CitadelSC3.114.4220.0019.42-1.86-2.70
VMISC3.114.4226.6725.93-1.45-2.13
UNC AshevilleBSth2.951.9755.5660.710.330.42
ElonCAA3.001.9355.5652.910.330.11
UNC WilmingtonCAA2.921.9023.5328.32-1.55-0.83
NortheasternCAA2.931.8566.6765.470.980.57
WinthropBSth2.921.8146.6757.81-0.190.28
TennesseeSEC2.851.7870.5967.861.180.64
Tennessee TechOVC2.851.7861.1155.120.630.18
South Carolina St.MEAC2.861.7627.7831.53-1.27-0.65
DukeACC2.851.7588.8984.752.221.22
ButlerBE2.781.7265.0061.830.830.41
New HampshireAE2.781.7235.2941.58-0.82-0.29
High PointBSth0.410.3443.7549.22-0.05-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.400.3127.7827.11-0.18-0.14
College of CharlestonCAA0.300.2766.6765.630.100.08
LongwoodBSth0.160.2516.6716.15-0.11-0.17
LibertyBSth0.240.2550.0054.180.000.02
James MadisonCAA0.310.2425.0028.25-0.15-0.11
DelawareCAA0.230.2447.3743.00-0.01-0.03
DrexelCAA0.230.2430.0030.97-0.09-0.09
Jacksonville St.OVC0.230.2470.0068.210.090.09
CampbellBSth0.320.2247.0647.41-0.02-0.01
RadfordBSth0.320.2257.8958.880.050.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.320.2225.0031.44-0.16-0.08
North Carolina St.ACC0.310.2165.0056.350.090.03
North CarolinaACC0.160.2176.1972.570.090.09
HofstraCAA0.150.1857.8959.500.020.03
TowsonCAA0.230.1863.1665.980.060.06
William & MaryCAA0.150.1864.7160.010.040.04
ClemsonACC0.150.1884.2173.180.100.08
Kennesaw St.ASun0.290.1816.6724.90-0.20-0.09
Wake ForestACC0.150.1542.1140.46-0.02-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.090.1338.8940.78-0.02-0.02
UMBCAE0.160.1355.5655.550.020.01
Ohio St.B100.230.1281.8276.870.140.07
Virginia TechACC0.090.1270.0060.400.030.02
South CarolinaSEC0.160.1261.1151.910.040.00
LSUSEC0.150.1261.1153.190.030.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.1210.0016.77-0.06-0.08
MemphisAmer0.150.1265.0058.540.050.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.150.1266.6773.220.050.06
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.1231.5836.43-0.03-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.160.1252.6343.040.01-0.02
KentuckySEC0.150.1273.6868.040.070.04
XavierBE0.140.1285.7180.060.100.07
VCUA100.170.1060.0059.710.030.02
AmericanPat0.160.0925.0026.03-0.08-0.05
DavidsonA100.160.0958.8261.440.030.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.0955.5657.250.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.160.0915.7922.64-0.11-0.05
Florida St.ACC0.160.0973.6869.660.080.04
HarvardIvy0.160.0937.5046.70-0.04-0.01
VermontAE0.150.0975.0077.870.080.05
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0966.6755.900.030.01
Boston UniversityPat0.220.0950.0053.280.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.150.0978.9574.200.090.04
ValparaisoMVC0.150.0947.3748.77-0.01-0.00
VirginiaACC0.000.0994.7486.110.000.06
Austin PeayOVC0.150.0944.4446.01-0.02-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.150.090.008.42-0.15-0.07
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0910.0019.62-0.06-0.05
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0926.3231.48-0.04-0.03
UCFAmer0.150.0968.4260.830.060.02
AlabamaSEC0.080.0968.4259.020.030.02
ArkansasSEC0.150.0968.4264.160.060.02
FloridaSEC0.150.0973.6871.600.070.04
Morehead St.OVC0.210.0923.5328.71-0.11-0.04
VanderbiltSEC0.150.0936.8435.58-0.04-0.03
TexasB120.220.0965.0058.600.060.01
VillanovaBE0.140.0894.7490.310.130.07
St. John'sBE0.000.0847.3742.160.00-0.01
DuquesneA100.090.0670.0058.090.030.01
MaristMAAC0.090.0621.0521.99-0.05-0.04
AuburnSEC0.160.0689.4776.990.130.03
AlbanyAE0.080.0671.4370.250.030.02
BinghamtonAE0.080.0642.1139.93-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.090.0636.8431.11-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.090.0627.7838.12-0.04-0.01
HartfordAE0.000.0650.0045.930.00-0.01
MaineAE0.000.0610.5314.830.00-0.04
North FloridaASun0.090.0631.5835.15-0.03-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.080.0636.8445.19-0.02-0.01
Texas TechB120.090.0678.9571.750.050.03
UMass LowellAE0.080.0633.3333.87-0.03-0.02
HowardMEAC0.150.0610.5326.29-0.12-0.03
Utah St.MWC0.150.0645.0045.47-0.02-0.01
AkronMAC0.080.0647.0644.92-0.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0631.5836.230.00-0.02
BelmontOVC0.070.0671.4374.670.030.03
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0623.5325.63-0.04-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0689.4785.550.000.04
ColoradoP120.080.0660.0053.720.020.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.069.5217.860.00-0.04
DetroitHorz0.080.0621.0525.99-0.04-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.150.0631.5832.71-0.05-0.02
FordhamA100.080.0631.5829.03-0.03-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.080.0652.6351.680.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0666.6765.390.030.02
Georgia St.SB0.080.0666.6765.550.030.02
HamptonMEAC0.070.0625.0043.18-0.04-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0638.8943.36-0.02-0.01
La SalleA100.080.0640.0042.69-0.02-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.080.0668.4263.610.030.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.150.0615.0020.28-0.10-0.04
MassachusettsA100.000.0650.0046.810.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.000.0663.6457.610.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.060.0010.26-0.08-0.05
Murray St.OVC0.070.0670.5975.960.030.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0617.6534.76-0.05-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.080.0652.9455.030.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0635.2940.46-0.02-0.01
TroySB0.080.0638.8944.43-0.02-0.01
UABCUSA0.080.0661.1164.150.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0660.0062.010.000.01
WyomingMWC0.080.0661.1156.790.020.01
LipscombASun0.150.0652.9459.380.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.150.0665.0054.600.040.01
IndianaB100.150.0660.0052.880.030.00
MississippiSEC0.000.0652.6345.860.00-0.00
PurdueB100.140.0690.4888.390.120.04
CreightonBE0.070.0675.0070.720.030.02
DePaulBE0.070.0642.1134.30-0.01-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.070.0668.4254.080.020.00
MarquetteBE0.070.0668.4260.530.020.01
PittsburghACC0.150.0640.0030.88-0.03-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.140.0658.8263.210.020.01
ProvidenceBE0.070.0670.0060.470.030.01
Seton HallBE0.070.0675.0067.910.030.02
Colorado St.MWC0.090.0345.0041.31-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.090.0355.0052.480.010.00
BryantNEC0.080.039.5217.12-0.06-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.080.0321.4326.34-0.04-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.080.0342.1132.46-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.080.0338.8944.07-0.02-0.00
George WashingtonA100.080.0345.0043.49-0.01-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.080.0330.0032.58-0.03-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0357.1453.040.010.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0344.4450.31-0.010.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0350.0052.500.000.00
BucknellPat0.070.0361.9068.000.020.01
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0361.9063.170.020.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.0345.0049.28-0.01-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0362.5058.710.020.01
CornellIvy0.070.0333.3333.23-0.02-0.01
DaytonA100.070.0347.3750.94-0.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0329.4133.930.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.070.0335.2935.54-0.02-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0344.4446.03-0.01-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0333.3333.76-0.02-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.070.0344.4444.91-0.01-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0345.0047.06-0.01-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0327.7841.03-0.03-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0333.3340.350.00-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0325.0028.02-0.04-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.070.0345.0048.57-0.01-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0347.0654.680.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.070.0383.3381.450.050.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0390.4888.970.060.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0342.1146.09-0.01-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0336.8432.750.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.070.0335.0026.13-0.02-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0342.1143.500.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.070.0366.6768.750.020.01
StanfordP120.070.0355.0050.330.010.00
TCUB120.070.0375.0067.830.040.01
UCLAP120.070.0365.0062.050.020.01
USC UpstateASun0.070.0311.1118.00-0.06-0.02
WisconsinB100.070.0350.0046.270.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.070.0341.1847.61-0.01-0.00
Iowa St.B120.000.0357.8946.220.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0372.2258.880.000.01
MissouriSEC0.080.0366.6763.150.030.01
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0368.4263.970.030.01
EvansvilleMVC0.070.0352.6347.500.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.0378.9569.820.000.01
MarylandB100.070.0366.6763.130.020.01
Miami FLACC0.070.0377.7870.410.040.01
Michigan St.B100.070.0385.7183.760.050.02
Notre DameACC0.000.0363.1661.000.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.070.0352.9460.230.000.01
Saint LouisA100.070.0347.3746.93-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.070.0373.6872.400.030.01
SouthernSWAC0.070.0331.5840.82-0.03-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0352.9459.250.000.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0368.4261.280.000.01
UtahP120.070.0363.1659.720.020.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.070.0366.6766.030.020.01
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0342.8635.22-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0321.0523.52-0.04-0.01