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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Furman

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:293.0
Current RPI:293
Expected SOS:209
Current SOS:209
Current Record:9-22
Expected Record:9-22
Current Conf Record:8-14
Expected Conf Record:8-14
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-10
Current OOC Record:1-8
Expected OOC Record:1-8
Expected OOC RPI:312
Expected OOC SOS:151



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
9-22293.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Furman.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14College of Charleston (298.0)CAAH40-75L0%0.0
11-19Appalachian St. (250.0)SBH84-65W100%0.0
11-22UC Davis (75.0)BWH55-58L0%0.0
11-26Duke (6.0)ACCA93-54L0%0.0
12-1Liberty (347.0)BSthA66-52L0%0.0
12-6Samford (305.0)SCH74-64W100%0.0
12-9TCU (131.0)B12A80-69L0%0.0
12-13Gardner Webb (146.0)BSthA74-68L0%0.0
12-19Florida Gulf Coast (137.0)ASunA83-78L0%0.0
12-22Minnesota (98.0)B10A86-76L0%0.0
1-3Chattanooga (112.0)SCA72-60L0%0.0
1-5Western Carolina (220.0)SCA72-53L0%0.0
1-8UNC Greensboro (309.0)SCH71-64W100%0.0
1-10VMI (286.0)SCH73-83L0%0.0
1-15Mercer (212.0)SCA67-64L0%0.0
1-17The Citadel (327.0)SCA62-74W100%0.0
1-22Wofford (47.0)SCA74-49L0%0.0
1-29East Tennessee St. (192.0)SCH59-55W100%0.0
1-31Samford (305.0)SCA68-58L0%0.0
2-5Chattanooga (112.0)SCH71-74L0%0.0
2-7Mercer (212.0)SCH68-74L0%0.0
2-12VMI (286.0)SCA93-59L0%0.0
2-14East Tennessee St. (192.0)SCA66-59L0%0.0
2-19The Citadel (327.0)SCH56-62L0%0.0
2-22UNC Greensboro (309.0)SCA84-49L0%0.0
2-26Western Carolina (220.0)SCH53-49W100%0.0
2-28Wofford (47.0)SCH60-62L0%0.0
3-6The Citadel (327.0)SCN56-73W100%0.0
3-7Chattanooga (112.0)SCN67-69W100%0.0
3-8Mercer (212.0)SCN49-52W100%0.0
3-9Wofford (47.0)SCN67-64L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Furman's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Furman's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Furman.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
FurmanSC26.7626.7627.8227.82-11.87-11.87
WoffordSC6.026.0279.3179.313.533.53
The CitadelSC5.945.9429.1729.17-2.47-2.47
MercerSC5.945.9450.0050.000.000.00
ChattanoogaSC5.875.8766.6766.671.961.96
VMISC4.484.4826.9226.92-2.07-2.07
Western CarolinaSC4.474.4742.8642.86-0.64-0.64
UNC GreensboroSC4.444.4425.0025.00-2.22-2.22
SamfordSC4.374.3737.9337.93-1.06-1.06
East Tennessee St.SC4.364.3650.0050.000.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA1.731.7325.0025.00-0.86-0.86
DukeACC1.691.6987.5087.501.271.27
MinnesotaB101.671.6751.6151.610.050.05
Gardner WebbBSth1.671.6751.7251.720.060.06
LibertyBSth1.641.6411.1111.11-1.28-1.28
Appalachian St.SB1.611.6142.8642.86-0.23-0.23
Florida Gulf CoastASun1.611.6164.2964.290.460.46
TCUB121.611.6153.1253.120.100.10
UC DavisBW1.611.6178.5778.570.920.92
PresbyterianBSth0.290.2921.4321.43-0.17-0.17
Kennesaw St.ASun0.270.2726.6726.67-0.12-0.12
UNC AshevilleBSth0.250.2542.8642.86-0.04-0.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.240.2459.2659.260.040.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.240.2456.6756.670.030.03
Virginia TechACC0.230.2333.3333.33-0.08-0.08
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.220.2268.9768.970.080.08
CampbellBSth0.210.2124.1424.14-0.11-0.11
West VirginiaB120.210.2171.8871.880.090.09
JacksonvilleASun0.190.1924.1424.14-0.10-0.10
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.190.1956.6756.670.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.180.1865.6265.620.060.06
WinthropBSth0.170.1755.1755.170.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.170.1730.0030.00-0.07-0.07
LongwoodBSth0.170.1728.1228.12-0.07-0.07
High PointBSth0.160.1667.8667.860.060.06
WisconsinB100.160.1691.1891.180.130.13
NavyPat0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Michigan St.B100.140.1467.6567.650.050.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.140.1435.7135.71-0.04-0.04
LipscombASun0.140.1439.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.140.1439.2939.29-0.03-0.03
RadfordBSth0.140.1462.0762.070.030.03
TennesseeSEC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.140.1422.5822.58-0.07-0.07
PurdueB100.130.1363.6463.640.040.04
ElonCAA0.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.130.1340.6240.62-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
William & MaryCAA0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.110.1151.5251.520.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
Louisiana MonroeSB0.110.1158.6258.620.020.02
Seton HallBE0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
PittsburghACC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
IonaMAAC0.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
North CarolinaACC0.100.1068.5768.570.040.04
Texas A&MSEC0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
FairfieldMAAC0.100.1022.5822.58-0.05-0.05
StanfordP120.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
MaristMAAC0.090.0921.8821.88-0.05-0.05
North FloridaASun0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
HawaiiBW0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
MarylandB100.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
ArmyPat0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
ButlerBE0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.080.0852.9452.940.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
UABCUSA0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
IndianaB100.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
DartmouthIvy0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
PacificWCC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
RiceCUSA0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
HofstraCAA0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0872.4172.410.030.03
South DakotaSum0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Kansas St.B120.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
George WashingtonA100.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0675.8675.860.030.03
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
VCUA100.060.0674.2974.290.030.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.060.0640.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
OhioMAC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Texas St.SB0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.060.0629.6329.63-0.02-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.04-0.04
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
SeattleWAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
UMKCWAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
LSUSEC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
IowaB100.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
NebraskaB100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Penn St.B100.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
RutgersB100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
St. John'sBE0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
BaylorB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
James MadisonCAA0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
OklahomaB120.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
TexasB120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Texas TechB120.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.030.030.000.00-0.03-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
ArizonaP120.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
IllinoisB100.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
MichiganB100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
George MasonA100.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.020.000.00-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0218.7518.75-0.02-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0230.7730.77-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0210.3410.34-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
UTSACUSA0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.020.0290.6290.620.020.02