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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.


Longwood

Conference:ind
Expected RPI:311.5
Current RPI:313
Expected SOS:325
Current SOS:333
Current Record:6-14
Expected Record:8-19
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:0-2
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-12
Current OOC Record:6-14
Expected OOC Record:7-18
Expected OOC RPI:309
Expected OOC SOS:313



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-16269.30.27%
10-17284.62.45%
9-18296.012.71%
8-19306.532.97%
7-20316.935.36%
6-21327.016.23%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Longwood.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Navy (318.8)PatH70-78L0%0.0
11-15Canisius (322.0)MAACH83-87L0%0.0
11-18Brigham Young (44.9)WCCA92-60L0%0.0
11-22Nevada (63.3)WACA80-78L0%0.0
11-25Prairie View A&M (281.7)SWACN67-70W100%0.0
11-26Missouri Kansas City (240.4)SumN53-93L0%0.0
12-2South Carolina St. (337.8)MEACH92-81W100%0.0
12-3Virginia (39.5)ACCA86-53L0%0.0
12-12Virginia Military Inst (264.1)BSthH110-89W100%0.0
12-19Vanderbilt (31.5)SECA99-71L0%0.0
12-23Seton Hall (53.1)BEH61-87L0%0.0
12-29Chattanooga (285.8)SCA85-50L0%0.0
12-30Hampton (307.2)MEACN82-79L0%0.0
1-3Army (293.1)PatA96-77L0%0.0
1-7NJ Inst of Technology (294.9)GWCH85-70W100%0.0
1-11Brown (305.2)IvyA77-79W100%0.0
1-14Dartmouth (320.3)IvyA83-67L0%0.0
1-16Fairleigh Dickinson (323.4)NECA83-87W100%0.0
1-22Eastern Kentucky (207.4)OVCA78-71L0%0.0
1-24Florida Gulf Coast (206.9)ASunA101-58L0%0.0
2-6South Carolina St. (337.8)MEACA0-045%-1.4
2-11Seattle (288.1)indH0-028%-6.2
2-18North Dakota (266.8)GWCH0-034%-4.6
2-20Norfolk St. (131.7)MEACA0-06%-16.7
2-25NJ Inst of Technology (294.9)GWCA0-026%-6.9
2-27Gonzaga (27.9)WCCA0-00%-29.9
2-29Seattle (288.1)indA0-012%-13.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Longwood's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Longwood's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Longwood.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Longwoodind26.1526.1232.5631.13-9.12-9.86
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC2.673.8735.2938.51-0.78-0.89
South Carolina St.MEAC2.613.8010.5313.97-2.06-2.74
Seattleind0.063.7323.5329.04-0.03-1.57
Norfolk St.MEAC0.232.0568.1868.820.080.77
North DakotaGWC0.122.0333.3340.26-0.04-0.40
ArmyPat2.692.0338.1039.56-0.64-0.42
VirginiaACC2.562.0080.9576.001.591.04
Brigham YoungWCC2.621.9873.9175.151.251.00
HamptonMEAC2.561.9833.3336.36-0.85-0.54
NavyPat2.561.955.009.85-2.30-1.57
Prairie View A&MSWAC2.671.9536.8442.30-0.70-0.30
DartmouthIvy2.611.9510.0014.22-2.09-1.39
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC2.571.939.0912.57-2.10-1.44
Seton HallBE2.571.9363.6462.480.700.48
Missouri Kansas CitySum2.551.9231.8232.88-0.93-0.66
NevadaWAC2.611.9280.0075.551.570.98
BrownIvy2.561.9228.5724.62-1.10-0.97
GonzagaWCC0.051.9281.8280.840.031.18
Florida Gulf CoastASun2.561.8847.6247.01-0.12-0.11
CanisiusMAAC2.551.8813.6416.94-1.86-1.25
Eastern KentuckyOVC2.501.8847.8350.01-0.110.00
ChattanoogaSC2.501.8523.8132.61-1.31-0.64
VanderbiltSEC2.501.8568.1864.730.910.55
Virginia Military InstBSth2.501.8547.3745.92-0.13-0.15
Utah ValleyGWC0.240.4754.5557.690.020.07
LafayettePat0.350.2743.4842.95-0.05-0.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.290.2656.5255.950.040.03
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.130.2619.0524.61-0.08-0.13
Utah St.WAC0.170.2550.0052.930.000.01
ColgatePat0.250.2430.4329.50-0.10-0.10
San FranciscoWCC0.110.2456.5253.770.010.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.240.2434.7838.77-0.07-0.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.110.2338.8943.93-0.03-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.240.2352.3857.860.010.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.2235.2939.85-0.02-0.05
Chicago St.GWC0.070.224.769.95-0.06-0.18
Houston BaptistGWC0.070.2225.0028.52-0.03-0.10
IdahoWAC0.120.2247.6251.08-0.010.00
PepperdineWCC0.050.2031.8233.83-0.02-0.07
HarvardIvy0.180.2090.4887.910.140.15
RutgersBE0.190.2050.0046.810.00-0.01
LehighPat0.220.2073.9174.910.110.10
BucknellPat0.290.2073.9175.000.140.10
AmericanPat0.230.2065.2263.790.070.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.2038.1042.78-0.01-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.2019.0522.37-0.04-0.11
Coppin St.MEAC0.180.1942.1149.81-0.03-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.180.1925.0037.58-0.09-0.05
YaleIvy0.280.1972.2263.190.130.05
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.070.1847.8347.87-0.00-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.230.1740.9143.66-0.04-0.02
Long IslandNEC0.120.1770.8371.050.050.07
ManhattanMAAC0.180.1768.0069.070.070.06
Holy CrossPat0.180.1740.9142.05-0.03-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.230.178.7011.67-0.19-0.13
MercerASun0.280.1670.8371.640.120.07
HawaiiWAC0.120.1657.1453.120.020.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.1633.3337.25-0.00-0.04
PortlandWCC0.110.1621.7421.70-0.06-0.09
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.120.1620.0019.96-0.07-0.10
HowardMEAC0.180.1618.1822.22-0.11-0.09
MonmouthNEC0.170.1628.0028.91-0.08-0.07
ColumbiaIvy0.110.1655.0054.800.010.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.1537.5038.33-0.00-0.04
Portland St.BSky0.000.1542.8645.80-0.00-0.01
Fresno St.WAC0.060.1439.1344.52-0.01-0.02
San Jose St.WAC0.060.1427.2726.95-0.03-0.07
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.1473.9175.490.030.07
Western IllinoisSum0.050.1452.6348.410.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.230.1334.7834.61-0.07-0.04
LibertyBSth0.170.1327.2727.21-0.08-0.06
PittsburghBE0.130.1360.8758.160.030.02
ElonSC0.180.1350.0047.590.00-0.01
BaylorB120.180.1390.9183.850.140.09
AlbanyAE0.230.1360.0060.420.050.03
BryantNEC0.230.138.3310.86-0.19-0.10
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.110.1335.0035.31-0.03-0.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.100.1359.0957.760.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.100.1333.3333.82-0.03-0.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.1328.5726.30-0.02-0.06
South DakotaSum0.220.1326.3228.83-0.10-0.05
St. Mary'sWCC0.100.1390.9187.740.090.10
St. Peter'sMAAC0.220.1321.7424.58-0.12-0.06
South CarolinaSEC0.120.1340.9139.56-0.02-0.03
OregonP120.230.1369.5764.530.090.04
CornellIvy0.060.1336.8441.45-0.02-0.02
PennsylvaniaIvy0.060.1354.5556.840.010.02
PrincetonIvy0.060.1347.3752.87-0.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.110.1356.5255.200.010.01
MarquetteBE0.110.1279.1775.980.060.06
WashingtonP120.060.1169.5766.540.020.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.1140.9144.03-0.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.070.1080.9577.380.040.06
Louisiana TechWAC0.060.1042.8643.45-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.110.1024.0024.86-0.06-0.05
The CitadelSC0.120.109.5211.44-0.10-0.08
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.1061.9063.520.010.03
Air ForceMWC0.120.1047.3742.16-0.01-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.110.1012.5013.44-0.08-0.07
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.110.1026.0928.60-0.05-0.04
SienaMAAC0.060.1045.4545.55-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.170.1040.0041.30-0.03-0.02
WoffordSC0.170.1059.0957.930.030.02
IonaMAAC0.110.1079.1780.100.060.06
Loyola MDMAAC0.170.1077.2773.450.090.05
MaristMAAC0.170.1034.7833.43-0.05-0.03
DavidsonSC0.170.1076.1976.760.090.05
Central ConnecticutNEC0.170.1045.4545.70-0.02-0.01
Texas ChristianMWC0.110.1057.1449.540.02-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.050.1045.4546.99-0.00-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.110.1080.7780.750.070.06
MarylandACC0.060.0959.0950.820.010.00
Notre DameBE0.110.0965.2262.650.030.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.170.0968.0070.030.060.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.110.0926.3229.71-0.05-0.04
ProvidenceBE0.170.0956.5250.270.020.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.170.0944.0045.89-0.02-0.01
KentuckySEC0.060.0995.8392.570.050.08
TennesseeSEC0.110.0945.4544.66-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleBE0.160.0978.2672.660.090.04
Montana St.BSky0.000.0845.0041.76-0.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.0869.5768.290.000.03
UC DavisBW0.000.080.005.37-0.00-0.07
UC IrvineBW0.000.0835.0035.26-0.00-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0733.3333.88-0.00-0.02
MassachusettsA100.070.0773.9168.580.030.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0755.0060.330.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0772.2271.970.030.03
NC AshevilleBSth0.130.0768.1867.640.050.03
RadfordBSth0.130.078.7013.10-0.10-0.05
MontanaBSky0.060.0770.0073.280.020.03
New MexicoMWC0.050.0781.8281.030.030.04
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.060.0713.6416.35-0.05-0.05
High PointBSth0.120.0731.8232.75-0.04-0.02
QuinnipiacNEC0.110.0756.5257.150.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.0717.6527.10-0.04-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0730.0037.30-0.03-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0716.6723.02-0.04-0.04
Appalachian St.SC0.060.0735.0039.29-0.02-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0717.3924.41-0.04-0.03
BelmontASun0.060.0769.5773.280.020.03
East Tennessee St.ASun0.060.0752.3852.860.000.00
Georgia St.CAA0.060.0766.6769.690.020.03
GramblingSWAC0.060.0715.0015.73-0.04-0.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0719.0525.52-0.04-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.110.0717.3922.00-0.07-0.04
LipscombASun0.060.0743.4843.82-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0750.0058.160.000.01
NC GreensboroSC0.060.0734.7833.46-0.02-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0769.5768.900.020.03
North FloridaASun0.060.0745.8346.68-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.060.0759.0954.700.010.01
SamfordSC0.060.0733.3335.26-0.02-0.02
South Carolina UpstateASun0.060.0754.5556.090.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.060.0745.0046.13-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.060.0731.8231.31-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.130.0731.8242.13-0.05-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.110.0734.7837.24-0.03-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.110.060.004.02-0.11-0.06
ButlerHorz0.060.0650.0050.800.000.00
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.110.0682.6181.440.070.04
ToledoMAC0.060.0638.1040.81-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.110.0650.0049.730.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.110.0665.0060.020.030.01
Austin PeayOVC0.100.0633.3335.97-0.03-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.110.0668.4266.450.040.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0633.3334.47-0.02-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.110.0654.5554.300.010.01
IUPUISum0.110.0634.7835.50-0.03-0.02
Michigan St.B100.050.0676.1972.910.030.03
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0637.5041.54-0.01-0.01
OaklandSum0.050.0648.0050.21-0.000.00
RiderMAAC0.050.0637.5038.52-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.110.0647.6247.18-0.01-0.00
Southern UtahSum0.110.0645.4544.30-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.110.0621.7422.76-0.06-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.100.0656.5253.100.010.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0660.8759.760.010.01
VermontAE0.110.0660.0062.490.020.02
WagnerNEC0.050.0682.6184.570.040.04
WisconsinB100.110.0675.0073.970.050.03
DrexelCAA0.060.0679.1778.100.030.04
James MadisonCAA0.110.0640.0040.18-0.02-0.01
New HampshireAE0.120.0635.0038.58-0.03-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.110.0669.5765.150.040.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.110.0678.2672.340.060.03
XavierA100.050.0665.2263.740.020.02
ClemsonACC0.060.0650.0048.360.00-0.00
ConnecticutBE0.110.0668.1863.990.040.02
DePaulBE0.050.0650.0042.830.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.060.0672.7371.710.030.03
George MasonCAA0.110.0676.0072.500.060.03
North CarolinaACC0.000.0686.9683.160.000.04
Wake ForestACC0.050.0647.8343.66-0.00-0.01
AuburnSEC0.110.0656.5248.810.01-0.00
Louisiana St.SEC0.060.0659.0957.280.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.110.0670.8364.420.050.02
FloridaSEC0.050.0682.6177.630.040.03
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0645.4541.20-0.00-0.01
KansasB120.000.0478.2678.390.000.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0430.0033.20-0.00-0.01
CampbellBSth0.060.0456.0055.650.010.00
Ohio St.B100.060.0486.9685.460.050.03
Old DominionCAA0.060.0460.0058.290.010.01
MissouriB120.060.0391.3087.180.050.03
TulaneCUSA0.060.0361.9058.590.010.01
Arizona St.P120.060.0330.4331.43-0.02-0.01
College of CharlestonSC0.060.0358.3359.980.010.01
FurmanSC0.000.0347.6248.83-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.060.0375.0075.780.030.02
Iowa St.B120.060.0373.9168.430.030.01
La SalleA100.060.0370.8368.820.020.01
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0354.1757.200.000.00
NebraskaB100.060.0352.3846.680.00-0.00
PacificBW0.060.0335.0037.47-0.02-0.01
Southern MethodistCUSA0.060.0338.1037.86-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0347.0650.75-0.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.060.0342.8639.66-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.000.0366.6768.550.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0328.5734.20-0.03-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.0372.7364.430.000.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0362.5062.060.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0334.7838.42-0.02-0.01
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.050.0319.0521.29-0.03-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.050.03100.0094.550.050.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0313.6416.14-0.04-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0360.0059.060.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.050.0366.6768.050.020.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.034.359.66-0.05-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0355.5658.010.010.01
UtahP120.050.0318.1815.01-0.03-0.02
Washington St.P120.000.0350.0048.170.00-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.050.0380.0076.840.030.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0340.9142.96-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.0341.6740.61-0.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.060.0330.4326.44-0.02-0.01
CincinnatiBE0.000.0369.5765.470.000.01
DaytonA100.050.0360.8760.960.010.01
DelawareCAA0.000.0347.8350.65-0.000.00
DrakeMVC0.060.0352.1750.090.000.00
DukeACC0.060.0386.3683.090.040.02
FordhamA100.060.0340.9134.50-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.060.0339.1342.12-0.01-0.00
HartfordAE0.060.0317.3920.97-0.04-0.02
IowaB100.060.0354.1749.440.00-0.00
MichiganB100.060.0372.7366.810.030.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0361.9055.140.010.00
Rhode IslandA100.060.0320.8320.60-0.03-0.02
RichmondA100.060.0350.0048.490.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0362.5062.490.010.01
South FloridaBE0.050.0354.5548.600.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.000.0343.4840.28-0.00-0.01
SyracuseBE0.050.0395.8392.010.050.03
TowsonCAA0.060.034.005.26-0.05-0.03
VillanovaBE0.050.0345.4546.08-0.00-0.00
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.050.0380.0078.060.030.02
West VirginiaBE0.050.0365.2265.170.020.01
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.060.0335.0039.38-0.02-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0368.1869.100.020.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0381.8280.430.030.02
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0356.5254.220.010.00
Miami OHMAC0.050.0330.0034.15-0.02-0.01
Middle TennesseeSB0.050.0383.3384.760.040.02
MississippiSEC0.000.0363.6456.710.000.00
Oregon St.P120.050.0363.6463.160.010.01