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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Longwood

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:337.0
Current RPI:337
Expected SOS:294
Current SOS:294
Current Record:4-24
Expected Record:4-24
Current Conf Record:3-14
Expected Conf Record:3-14
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-14
Current OOC Record:1-10
Expected OOC Record:1-10
Expected OOC RPI:327
Expected OOC SOS:243



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
4-24337.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Longwood.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9South Carolina (140.0)SECA82-44L0%0.0
11-12TCU (212.0)B12A79-82W100%0.0
11-22Brown (229.0)IvyH69-81L0%0.0
11-24Penn St. (114.0)B10A93-67L0%0.0
11-26St. John's (67.0)BEA65-47L0%0.0
11-29North Carolina A&T (336.0)MEACN78-85L0%0.0
11-30Mississippi Valley St. (342.0)SWACN90-89L0%0.0
12-7Eastern Kentucky (97.0)OVCH67-76L0%0.0
12-21Dartmouth (266.0)IvyA84-64L0%0.0
12-30Ohio (87.0)MACA78-43L0%0.0
1-4Louisiana Tech (62.0)CUSAA126-52L0%0.0
1-8VMI (211.0)BSthA95-72L0%0.0
1-11Campbell (316.0)BSthH67-75L0%0.0
1-15High Point (172.0)BSthA83-75L0%0.0
1-18Radford (240.0)BSthA93-76L0%0.0
1-22Liberty (311.0)BSthH69-66W100%0.0
1-25Charleston Southern (268.0)BSthA85-88W100%0.0
1-29Gardner Webb (241.0)BSthH62-82L0%0.0
2-1UNC Asheville (201.0)BSthH66-67L0%0.0
2-5Presbyterian (349.0)BSthA77-62L0%0.0
2-8Coastal Carolina (196.0)BSthA67-58L0%0.0
2-12Winthrop (168.0)BSthH59-76L0%0.0
2-15Campbell (316.0)BSthA53-76W100%0.0
2-19Radford (240.0)BSthH75-86L0%0.0
2-22High Point (172.0)BSthH59-85L0%0.0
2-25Liberty (311.0)BSthA90-76L0%0.0
3-1VMI (211.0)BSthH66-86L0%0.0
3-5Gardner Webb (241.0)BSthN81-65L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Longwood's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Longwood's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Longwood.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
LongwoodBSth26.2226.2217.3917.39-17.10-17.10
RadfordBSth4.384.3857.1457.140.630.63
VMIBSth4.374.3752.0052.000.170.17
High PointBSth4.344.3446.1546.15-0.33-0.33
LibertyBSth4.324.3225.9325.93-2.08-2.08
CampbellBSth4.324.3230.7730.77-1.66-1.66
Gardner WebbBSth4.264.2646.4346.43-0.30-0.30
WinthropBSth2.652.6555.1755.170.270.27
Coastal CarolinaBSth2.602.6058.6258.620.450.45
UNC AshevilleBSth2.582.5846.4346.43-0.18-0.18
Charleston SouthernBSth2.552.5534.6234.62-0.79-0.79
PresbyterianBSth2.532.5310.3410.34-2.00-2.00
DartmouthIvy1.881.8836.0036.00-0.53-0.53
Eastern KentuckyOVC1.881.8870.0070.000.750.75
North Carolina A&TMEAC1.871.8723.3323.33-1.00-1.00
BrownIvy1.851.8550.0050.000.000.00
St. John'sBE1.851.8561.2961.290.420.42
OhioMAC1.821.8265.6265.620.570.57
Penn St.B101.811.8145.1645.16-0.18-0.18
Louisiana TechCUSA1.791.7978.1278.121.001.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC1.791.7917.8617.86-1.15-1.15
South CarolinaSEC1.791.7939.3939.39-0.38-0.38
TCUB121.791.7925.0025.00-0.89-0.89
PrincetonIvy0.220.2270.3770.370.090.09
WoffordSC0.220.2258.6258.620.040.04
East CarolinaCUSA0.220.2244.8344.83-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.210.2113.7913.79-0.16-0.16
CornellIvy0.190.193.703.70-0.18-0.18
William & MaryCAA0.190.1961.2961.290.040.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.190.1923.3323.33-0.10-0.10
Georgia SouthernSC0.190.1938.7138.71-0.04-0.04
HamptonMEAC0.180.1860.0060.000.040.04
MississippiSEC0.170.1757.5857.580.030.03
HarvardIvy0.170.1786.2186.210.120.12
AkronMAC0.160.1663.6463.640.040.04
ColumbiaIvy0.160.1660.0060.000.030.03
PennIvy0.160.1628.5728.57-0.07-0.07
Virginia TechACC0.160.1629.0329.03-0.07-0.07
Western CarolinaSC0.160.1651.6151.610.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.150.1525.0025.00-0.08-0.08
BaylorB120.150.1566.6766.670.050.05
NorthwesternB100.150.1542.4242.42-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.150.1583.8783.870.100.10
FurmanSC0.150.1525.9325.93-0.07-0.07
Oklahoma St.B120.150.1563.6463.640.040.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.140.1425.0025.00-0.07-0.07
YaleIvy0.130.1351.8551.850.000.00
DelawareCAA0.130.1373.5373.530.060.06
Appalachian St.SC0.120.1219.2319.23-0.08-0.08
ClemsonACC0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.120.1237.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
HowardMEAC0.120.1219.3519.35-0.07-0.07
Alabama A&MSWAC0.120.1242.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.120.1248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.120.1267.6567.650.040.04
ArkansasSEC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
TulsaCUSA0.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
MonmouthMAAC0.120.1234.3834.38-0.04-0.04
XavierBE0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
CharlotteCUSA0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
MinnesotaB100.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.110.1129.0329.03-0.05-0.05
Wake ForestACC0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
Central ConnecticutNEC0.090.0934.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.090.0916.1316.13-0.06-0.06
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0961.7661.760.020.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.090.0914.8114.81-0.06-0.06
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.090.0930.3030.30-0.04-0.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.090.0927.5927.59-0.04-0.04
SyracuseACC0.090.0984.3884.380.060.06
West VirginiaB120.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.090.0935.7135.71-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
IllinoisB100.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
OklahomaB120.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
SouthernSWAC0.090.0955.1755.170.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.0942.4242.42-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
BelmontOVC0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
MissouriSEC0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
WisconsinB100.080.0878.7978.790.050.05
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
Ohio St.B100.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
FIUCUSA0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
New HampshireAE0.070.0717.2417.24-0.04-0.04
UMass LowellAE0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.070.0735.7135.71-0.02-0.02
ElonSC0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0661.7661.760.020.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0693.1093.100.050.05
IPFWSum0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.060.0678.7978.790.040.04
KansasB120.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
Kansas St.B120.060.0662.5062.500.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
TexasB120.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
Texas TechB120.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.060.0682.3582.350.040.04
Washington St.P120.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0624.0024.00-0.03-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
George WashingtonA100.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
IUPUISum0.060.0610.3410.34-0.05-0.05
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
VCUA100.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0616.6716.67-0.04-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.060.0659.2659.260.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.060.0670.5970.590.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
ButlerBE0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
DePaulBE0.060.0636.3636.36-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
MarquetteBE0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Michigan St.B100.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
NebraskaB100.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
PurdueB100.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
VillanovaBE0.060.0687.5087.500.040.04
WagnerNEC0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
BuffaloMAC0.050.0564.2964.290.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
ToledoMAC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
FloridaSEC0.050.0594.1294.120.050.05
TennesseeSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
HartfordAE0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
MaineAE0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
AlbanyAE0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
AmericanPat0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0321.2121.21-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
SMUAmer0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
DaytonA100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
SamfordSC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
NJITind0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
DuquesneA100.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
La SalleA100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
PittsburghACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
UICHorz0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0334.6234.62-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
MercerASun0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
TulaneCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UABCUSA0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
LSUSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00