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Through games of Nov 22, 2014.


Longwood

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:328.3
Current RPI:288
Expected SOS:275
Current SOS:290
Current Record:1-2
Expected Record:7-22
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:4-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-11
Current OOC Record:1-2
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:339
Expected OOC SOS:329



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-13163.00.01%
15-14188.00.01%
14-15222.30.03%
13-16232.10.19%
12-17255.10.55%
11-18273.51.67%
10-19291.74.37%
9-20306.58.66%
8-21318.814.67%
7-22328.919.97%
6-23336.519.90%
5-24341.715.96%
4-25345.49.43%
3-26347.83.64%
2-27348.90.85%
1-28350.50.08%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Longwood.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-19James Madison (233.3)CAAA82-60L0%0.0
11-21UNC Greensboro (317.2)SCN79-81W100%0.0
11-22Youngstown St. (275.2)HorzN72-82L0%0.0
11-23Eastern Michigan (175.9)MACA0-09%-15.9
11-26George Washington (34.3)A10A0-00%-31.1
11-29Iowa (38.6)B10A0-00%-31.3
12-3Dartmouth (291.9)IvyH0-039%-3.2
12-6Tennessee Martin (309.1)OVCH0-049%-0.2
12-14UMBC (303.6)AEA0-024%-8.3
12-17Miami OH (237.8)MACA0-016%-11.8
12-28Ball St. (233.5)MACA0-014%-12.8
12-31Winthrop (166.8)BSthA0-08%-16.7
1-3Radford (217.3)BSthH0-029%-6.7
1-8Coastal Carolina (149.0)BSthA0-06%-18.6
1-10Charleston Southern (168.3)BSthA0-09%-16.1
1-14Presbyterian (312.5)BSthH0-056%1.9
1-17Liberty (311.7)BSthH0-048%-0.6
1-19High Point (153.5)BSthA0-010%-15.6
1-22Gardner Webb (88.9)BSthA0-04%-20.7
1-28UNC Asheville (217.5)BSthH0-030%-6.1
1-31Presbyterian (312.5)BSthA0-033%-5.3
2-3Gardner Webb (88.9)BSthH0-013%-13.6
2-6UNC Asheville (217.5)BSthA0-013%-13.3
2-11Radford (217.3)BSthA0-012%-13.9
2-14Charleston Southern (168.3)BSthH0-023%-8.9
2-17Liberty (311.7)BSthA0-026%-7.8
2-21Winthrop (166.8)BSthH0-021%-9.6
2-23Coastal Carolina (149.0)BSthH0-017%-11.4
2-28Campbell (292.6)BSthH0-047%-1.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Longwood's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Longwood's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Longwood.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
LongwoodBSth32.6426.4638.4622.93-7.53-14.32
RadfordBSth2.784.4433.3346.27-0.93-0.33
PresbyterianBSth0.004.440.0022.31-0.00-2.46
LibertyBSth0.004.4333.3333.11-0.00-1.50
UNC AshevilleBSth0.004.3733.3342.93-0.00-0.62
Charleston SouthernBSth0.004.3750.0052.540.000.22
WinthropBSth0.004.3750.0058.280.000.72
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.004.370.0061.39-0.001.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.004.3766.6767.030.001.49
High PointBSth0.002.8475.0054.460.000.25
CampbellBSth0.002.810.0029.34-0.00-1.16
Eastern MichiganMAC4.861.91100.0047.654.86-0.09
Miami OHMAC0.001.8966.6732.330.00-0.67
UNC GreensboroSC16.671.880.0033.91-16.67-0.61
James MadisonCAA16.671.8850.0044.760.00-0.20
Ball St.MAC0.001.850.0034.53-0.00-0.57
Tennessee MartinOVC0.001.7950.0033.050.00-0.61
Youngstown St.Horz16.671.790.0033.23-16.67-0.60
UMBCAE0.001.780.0034.78-0.00-0.54
George WashingtonA100.001.7566.6775.690.000.90
IowaB100.001.7550.0064.440.000.51
DartmouthIvy0.001.720.0034.71-0.00-0.53
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.24100.0045.990.00-0.02
FurmanSC0.000.2033.3325.18-0.00-0.10
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.200.0031.61-0.00-0.07
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1950.0052.290.000.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.190.0049.23-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.1966.6733.180.00-0.07
WoffordSC0.000.1975.0075.140.000.10
Central MichiganMAC2.080.19100.0046.022.08-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.1850.0056.270.000.02
Kent St.MAC2.080.18100.0070.982.080.08
UNC WilmingtonCAA2.780.1866.6748.790.93-0.00
RichmondA100.000.1866.6767.450.000.06
Ohio St.B100.000.18100.0071.340.000.08
ClemsonACC0.000.1750.0051.120.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.1666.6758.650.000.03
SamfordSC0.000.1625.0031.88-0.00-0.06
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1625.0056.39-0.000.02
ToledoMAC0.000.1633.3364.19-0.000.04
Western MichiganMAC0.000.16100.0054.710.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.15100.0061.500.000.04
AkronMAC0.000.1566.6763.730.000.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.140.0032.69-0.00-0.05
AuburnSEC0.000.1466.6740.400.00-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.140.0019.92-0.00-0.08
MississippiSEC0.000.1466.6755.980.000.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.1350.0041.720.00-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.1325.0040.91-0.00-0.02
CornellIvy0.000.1340.0040.58-0.00-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.120.0033.55-0.00-0.04
BuffaloMAC0.000.1266.6760.610.000.03
DelawareCAA0.000.120.0029.55-0.00-0.05
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1266.6754.020.000.01
ElonCAA0.000.1233.3341.21-0.00-0.02
PurdueB100.000.10100.0060.550.000.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.10100.0070.030.000.04
Morehead St.OVC0.000.1025.0059.16-0.000.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.090.0033.25-0.00-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.090.0033.98-0.00-0.03
MarylandB100.000.09100.0064.500.000.03
North FloridaASun0.000.090.0047.13-0.00-0.01
HowardMEAC0.000.090.0035.51-0.00-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0925.0035.65-0.00-0.03
OaklandHorz0.000.090.0032.48-0.00-0.03
MercerSC0.000.0950.0052.260.000.00
DaytonA100.000.0966.6769.640.000.04
VMISC0.000.0933.3339.27-0.00-0.02
DavidsonA100.000.0950.0053.040.000.01
HartfordAE0.000.0975.0042.500.00-0.01
MaineAE0.000.090.0018.23-0.00-0.06
New HampshireAE0.000.090.0041.97-0.00-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0950.0034.510.00-0.03
VermontAE0.000.0933.3358.93-0.000.02
Penn St.B100.000.0975.0047.170.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.000.0966.6752.320.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0966.6744.970.00-0.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0966.6761.350.000.02
NorthwesternB100.000.09100.0042.120.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0975.0053.860.000.01
ArizonaP120.000.07100.0069.320.000.03
JacksonvilleASun0.000.070.0025.03-0.00-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0750.0062.580.000.02
LSUSEC0.000.0775.0060.550.000.01
UCLAP120.000.07100.0062.510.000.02
Colorado St.MWC0.000.07100.0062.400.000.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0733.3346.79-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.07100.0059.190.000.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0750.0054.290.000.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.070.0034.07-0.00-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.070.0056.24-0.000.01
UABCUSA0.000.070.0043.18-0.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0750.0041.630.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.0650.0054.620.000.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.060.0031.23-0.00-0.02
DukeACC0.000.06100.0086.130.000.05
GeorgetownBE0.000.06100.0062.070.000.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0675.0071.100.000.03
Murray St.OVC0.000.0650.0071.840.000.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0024.17-0.00-0.03
SienaMAAC0.000.0633.3359.64-0.000.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0633.3341.92-0.00-0.01
TCUB120.000.06100.0054.550.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.060.0037.13-0.00-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0650.0052.920.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0633.3340.99-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0620.0027.80-0.00-0.03
BrownIvy0.000.0625.0037.31-0.00-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.000.060.0046.61-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0633.3346.93-0.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0650.0062.620.000.02
DetroitHorz0.000.0633.3354.50-0.000.01
Green BayHorz0.000.060.0067.49-0.000.02
HarvardIvy0.000.0650.0067.960.000.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.060.0033.14-0.00-0.02
PennIvy0.000.060.0025.60-0.00-0.03
The CitadelSC0.000.060.0028.08-0.00-0.03
YaleIvy0.000.0666.6762.540.000.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.060.0025.50-0.00-0.03
IPFWSum0.000.0650.0063.720.000.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0620.0026.89-0.00-0.03
NJITind0.000.0625.0025.21-0.00-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.000.0666.6752.550.000.00
UMKCWAC0.000.0633.3355.40-0.000.01
MichiganB100.000.06100.0064.370.000.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0666.6771.600.000.03
AlbanyAE0.000.0633.3362.56-0.000.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.060.0034.71-0.00-0.02
DuquesneA100.000.06100.0052.610.000.00
George MasonA100.000.0625.0019.94-0.00-0.04
Stony BrookAE0.000.0633.3364.76-0.000.02
VCUA100.000.06100.0073.570.000.03
ColgatePat0.000.0633.3341.16-0.00-0.01
IndianaB100.000.06100.0062.040.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.06100.0073.290.000.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0650.0037.890.00-0.01
RutgersB100.000.0650.0037.560.00-0.01
VirginiaACC2.780.06100.0075.722.780.03
DrexelCAA0.000.060.0032.23-0.00-0.02
HofstraCAA0.000.0666.6762.810.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.06100.0071.440.000.02
WisconsinB100.000.06100.0084.890.000.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0325.0033.97-0.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.030.0042.47-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.000.0366.6773.760.000.02
ButlerBE0.000.03100.0061.850.000.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.030.0031.63-0.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0033.68-0.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.03100.0064.090.000.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0375.0054.790.000.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0333.3340.91-0.00-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0350.0051.860.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0028.50-0.00-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0350.0037.760.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.0350.0054.900.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0333.3344.56-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0366.6752.030.000.00
IUPUISum0.000.0350.0031.810.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0325.0041.91-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.000.03100.0080.630.000.02
South DakotaSum0.000.030.0042.57-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0366.6765.320.000.01
UtahP120.000.0366.6769.700.000.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.030.0035.36-0.00-0.01
DePaulBE0.000.03100.0037.850.00-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.03100.0063.550.000.01
FordhamA100.000.030.0035.11-0.00-0.01
La SalleA100.000.03100.0053.840.000.00
LehighPat0.000.030.0036.87-0.00-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0350.0031.980.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0375.0060.410.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.03100.0056.240.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0350.0037.110.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.03100.0065.140.000.01
Seton HallBE0.000.03100.0056.980.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0019.17-0.00-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0031.92-0.00-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0325.0051.56-0.000.00
IllinoisB100.000.03100.0067.100.000.01
Iowa St.B120.000.03100.0061.830.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0333.3345.85-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0350.0044.810.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.03100.0072.420.000.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.03100.0050.830.000.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0375.0068.160.000.01
TexasB120.000.03100.0081.740.000.02