Longwood

Conference:	BSth
Expected RPI:	332.0
Current RPI:	332
Expected SOS:	315
Current SOS:	315
Current Record:	6-25
Expected Record:	6-25
Current Conf Record:	5-13
Expected Conf Record:	5-13
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	6-16
Current OOC Record:	1-12
Expected OOC Record:	1-12
Expected OOC RPI:	326
Expected OOC SOS:	216

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
6-25	332.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Longwood.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Marshall (208.0)	CUSA	A	81-47	L	0%
11-15	Norfolk St. (178.0)	MEAC	H	66-78	L	0%
11-18	Arkansas (89.0)	SEC	A	112-63	L	0%
11-20	Creighton (25.0)	MVC	A	105-57	L	0%
11-23	Florida A&M (331.0)	MEAC	N	83-86	W	100%
11-24	Cornell (248.0)	Ivy	N	84-78	L	0%
12-1	Dartmouth (294.0)	Ivy	H	53-61	L	0%
12-10	Georgetown (11.0)	BE	A	89-53	L	0%
12-17	Canisius (112.0)	MAAC	A	82-54	L	0%
12-19	Seton Hall (138.0)	BE	A	79-61	L	0%
12-21	Virginia Commonwealth (24.0)	A10	A	93-56	L	0%
12-31	Fairleigh Dickinson (299.0)	NEC	H	71-79	L	0%
1-5	Coastal Carolina (259.0)	BSth	H	72-80	L	0%
1-9	Campbell (289.0)	BSth	H	73-83	L	0%
1-12	Charleston Southern (189.0)	BSth	H	62-75	L	0%
1-16	Radford (316.0)	BSth	A	82-72	L	0%
1-19	NC Asheville (217.0)	BSth	A	68-65	L	0%
1-22	Liberty (288.0)	BSth	A	74-47	L	0%
1-26	Presbyterian (340.0)	BSth	H	71-82	L	0%
1-30	High Point (249.0)	BSth	A	88-60	L	0%
2-2	Gardner Webb (194.0)	BSth	A	76-65	L	0%
2-6	Virginia Military Inst (302.0)	BSth	H	60-93	L	0%
2-9	Winthrop (269.0)	BSth	A	56-62	W	100%
2-13	High Point (249.0)	BSth	H	53-82	L	0%
2-16	Radford (316.0)	BSth	H	76-61	W	100%
2-19	Liberty (288.0)	BSth	H	102-101	W	100%
2-23	Tennessee Martin (312.0)	OVC	A	89-79	L	0%
2-27	Campbell (289.0)	BSth	A	66-79	W	100%
3-2	Virginia Military Inst (302.0)	BSth	A	94-80	L	0%
3-5	NC Asheville (217.0)	BSth	N	72-87	W	100%
3-7	Virginia Military Inst (302.0)	BSth	N	90-86	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Longwood's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Longwood's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Longwood.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Longwood	BSth	26.29	26.29	20.69	20.69	-15.41	-15.41
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	5.50	5.50	32.00	32.00	-1.98	-1.98
Liberty	BSth	4.10	4.10	36.67	36.67	-1.09	-1.09
Campbell	BSth	3.98	3.98	35.71	35.71	-1.14	-1.14
High Point	BSth	3.97	3.97	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Radford	BSth	3.95	3.95	33.33	33.33	-1.32	-1.32
NC Asheville	BSth	3.82	3.82	44.44	44.44	-0.42	-0.42
Charleston Southern	BSth	2.42	2.42	55.56	55.56	0.27	0.27
Presbyterian	BSth	2.39	2.39	14.29	14.29	-1.71	-1.71
Winthrop	BSth	2.37	2.37	40.74	40.74	-0.44	-0.44
Gardner Webb	BSth	2.36	2.36	58.62	58.62	0.41	0.41
Coastal Carolina	BSth	2.30	2.30	40.00	40.00	-0.46	-0.46
Cornell	Ivy	1.70	1.70	37.93	37.93	-0.41	-0.41
Florida A&M	MEAC	1.69	1.69	21.43	21.43	-0.97	-0.97
Georgetown	BE	1.69	1.69	80.00	80.00	1.01	1.01
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	1.67	1.67	75.76	75.76	0.86	0.86
Dartmouth	Ivy	1.67	1.67	26.92	26.92	-0.77	-0.77
Norfolk St.	MEAC	1.67	1.67	64.52	64.52	0.48	0.48
Seton Hall	BE	1.66	1.66	43.75	43.75	-0.21	-0.21
Arkansas	SEC	1.64	1.64	58.06	58.06	0.26	0.26
Creighton	MVC	1.64	1.64	78.79	78.79	0.94	0.94
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	1.64	1.64	20.00	20.00	-0.98	-0.98
Canisius	MAAC	1.61	1.61	56.67	56.67	0.22	0.22
Marshall	CUSA	1.61	1.61	36.67	36.67	-0.43	-0.43
Tennessee Martin	OVC	1.61	1.61	22.22	22.22	-0.90	-0.90
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.27	0.27	53.12	53.12	0.02	0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.24	0.24	52.94	52.94	0.01	0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.23	0.23	21.43	21.43	-0.13	-0.13
Austin Peay	OVC	0.19	0.19	20.69	20.69	-0.11	-0.11
Cincinnati	BE	0.19	0.19	66.67	66.67	0.06	0.06
Syracuse	BE	0.18	0.18	74.29	74.29	0.09	0.09
West Virginia	B12	0.17	0.17	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.17	0.17	70.97	70.97	0.07	0.07
Charlotte	A10	0.16	0.16	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
William & Mary	CAA	0.16	0.16	41.38	41.38	-0.03	-0.03
Western Carolina	SC	0.16	0.16	38.71	38.71	-0.04	-0.04
Hampton	MEAC	0.16	0.16	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.16	0.16	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
East Carolina	CUSA	0.16	0.16	53.85	53.85	0.01	0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.16	0.16	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.16	0.16	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Iona	MAAC	0.15	0.15	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Western Michigan	MAC	0.14	0.14	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Appalachian St.	SC	0.14	0.14	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.14	0.14	32.26	32.26	-0.05	-0.05
Wake Forest	ACC	0.14	0.14	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.14	0.14	31.03	31.03	-0.05	-0.05
Tennessee	SEC	0.13	0.13	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Arizona St.	P12	0.13	0.13	63.64	63.64	0.04	0.04
St. John's	BE	0.13	0.13	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.13	0.13	69.70	69.70	0.05	0.05
Providence	BE	0.13	0.13	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.13	0.13	20.69	20.69	-0.08	-0.08
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.13	0.13	30.00	30.00	-0.05	-0.05
Wichita St.	MVC	0.12	0.12	76.47	76.47	0.07	0.07
Army	Pat	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Elon	SC	0.12	0.12	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
Boston University	AE	0.11	0.11	58.62	58.62	0.02	0.02
Brown	Ivy	0.11	0.11	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.11	0.11	38.46	38.46	-0.03	-0.03
Harvard	Ivy	0.11	0.11	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.11	0.11	29.03	29.03	-0.05	-0.05
Princeton	Ivy	0.11	0.11	59.26	59.26	0.02	0.02
Yale	Ivy	0.11	0.11	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.11	0.11	57.69	57.69	0.02	0.02
Akron	MAC	0.11	0.11	80.65	80.65	0.07	0.07
George Washington	A10	0.11	0.11	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.11	0.11	16.67	16.67	-0.07	-0.07
Morehead St.	OVC	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Siena	MAAC	0.11	0.11	25.00	25.00	-0.05	-0.05
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.11	0.11	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Memphis	CUSA	0.10	0.10	88.24	88.24	0.08	0.08
Wisconsin	B10	0.10	0.10	67.65	67.65	0.04	0.04
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.10	0.10	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.10	0.10	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
Marquette	BE	0.10	0.10	74.19	74.19	0.05	0.05
Rutgers	BE	0.10	0.10	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Richmond	A10	0.10	0.10	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.09	0.09	37.04	37.04	-0.02	-0.02
College of Charleston	SC	0.09	0.09	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Clemson	ACC	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.09	0.09	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Wright St.	Horz	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.08	0.08	10.00	10.00	-0.07	-0.07
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.08	0.08	67.86	67.86	0.03	0.03
Ohio St.	B10	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Vermont	AE	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Towson	CAA	0.08	0.08	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.08	0.08	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Rider	MAAC	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.08	0.08	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	14.29	14.29	-0.06	-0.06
Central Florida	CUSA	0.08	0.08	62.07	62.07	0.02	0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.08	0.08	28.12	28.12	-0.03	-0.03
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.08	0.08	70.37	70.37	0.03	0.03
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.08	0.08	17.24	17.24	-0.05	-0.05
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.08	0.08	7.14	7.14	-0.07	-0.07
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
DePaul	BE	0.08	0.08	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Stony Brook	AE	0.08	0.08	76.67	76.67	0.04	0.04
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.08	0.08	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Long Island	NEC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Villanova	BE	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	22.58	22.58	-0.04	-0.04
Bradley	MVC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.08	0.08	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
UAB	CUSA	0.08	0.08	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Louisville	BE	0.07	0.07	85.29	85.29	0.05	0.05
South Florida	BE	0.07	0.07	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri	SEC	0.07	0.07	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Illinois St.	MVC	0.07	0.07	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.07	0.07	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Drake	MVC	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.07	0.07	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Florida International	SB	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Murray St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
NC Greensboro	SC	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.06	0.06	28.00	28.00	-0.03	-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Bucknell	Pat	0.06	0.06	84.38	84.38	0.04	0.04
Colgate	Pat	0.06	0.06	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.06	0.06	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Bryant	NEC	0.06	0.06	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Wofford	SC	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Maine	AE	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Houston	CUSA	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.05	0.05	93.75	93.75	0.05	0.05
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.05	0.05	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Seattle	WAC	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
American	Pat	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Belmont	OVC	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Monmouth	NEC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	28.12	28.12	-0.02	-0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.05	0.05	23.33	23.33	-0.03	-0.03
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.05	84.38	84.38	0.03	0.03
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.05	0.05	48.00	48.00	-0.00	-0.00
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.05	73.53	73.53	0.02	0.02
Pittsburgh	BE	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Georgia St.	CAA	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Texas A&M	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
UC Irvine	BW	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Lehigh	Pat	0.05	0.05	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Temple	A10	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Tulsa	CUSA	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Evansville	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Holy Cross	Pat	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
New Hampshire	AE	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona	P12	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Arkansas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.03	0.03	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
Samford	SC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
North Florida	ASun	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.03	0.03	6.90	6.90	-0.02	-0.02
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Detroit	Horz	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Hartford	AE	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Hofstra	CAA	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Lafayette	Pat	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Nevada	MWC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Texas	B12	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
UCLA	P12	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Navy	Pat	0.03	0.03	23.33	23.33	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Washington	P12	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Boise St.	MWC	0.02	0.02	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
Butler	A10	0.02	0.02	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
California	P12	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.02	0.02	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Fordham	A10	0.02	0.02	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.02	0.02	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.02	0.02	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
North Texas	SB	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
St. Mary's	WCC	0.02	0.02	81.25	81.25	0.01	0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.02	0.02	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00