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Through games of Jan 22, 2018.


Longwood

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:334.3
Current RPI:332
Expected SOS:243
Current SOS:268
Current Record:3-15
Expected Record:5-23
Current Conf Record:3-5
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-12
Current OOC Record:0-10
Expected OOC Record:0-10
Expected OOC RPI:343
Expected OOC SOS:178



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
9-19288.20.08%
8-20300.60.73%
7-21313.63.79%
6-22324.313.80%
5-23332.428.28%
4-24338.535.50%
3-25342.817.81%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Longwood.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Stephen F. Austin (123.3)SlndH61-74L0%0.0
11-14Columbia (278.4)IvyH77-87L0%0.0
11-18St. Francis PA (157.7)NECH56-83L0%0.0
11-21UNC Greensboro (118.0)SCA71-40L0%0.0
11-22Delaware (225.4)CAAN57-65L0%0.0
12-9VMI (315.2)SCA81-70L0%0.0
12-13Illinois (163.9)B10A92-45L0%0.0
12-16Cornell (279.9)IvyH62-69L0%0.0
12-19Arizona St. (31.6)P12A95-61L0%0.0
12-21Grand Canyon (148.5)WACA86-56L0%0.0
12-30Charleston Southern (305.2)BSthA84-43L0%0.0
1-3Presbyterian (326.2)BSthH65-78L0%0.0
1-6Gardner Webb (228.2)BSthH79-73W100%0.0
1-9UNC Asheville (142.3)BSthA90-80L0%0.0
1-12Liberty (237.1)BSthA51-58W100%0.0
1-15Campbell (266.8)BSthH76-62W100%0.0
1-18Radford (142.7)BSthA70-63L0%0.0
1-21High Point (224.8)BSthH55-75L0%0.0
1-24Winthrop (163.3)BSthH0-09%-14.6
1-27Gardner Webb (228.2)BSthA0-013%-12.8
2-1Presbyterian (326.2)BSthA0-030%-5.9
2-3Liberty (237.1)BSthH0-017%-10.7
2-7UNC Asheville (142.3)BSthH0-013%-12.5
2-10Campbell (266.8)BSthA0-010%-14.4
2-15Charleston Southern (305.2)BSthH0-035%-4.2
2-18Winthrop (163.3)BSthA0-03%-21.0
2-22High Point (224.8)BSthA0-07%-16.6
2-24Radford (142.7)BSthH0-016%-10.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Longwood's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Longwood's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Longwood.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
LongwoodBSth26.4526.4915.4815.08-18.26-18.50
PresbyterianBSth3.424.6823.5322.65-1.81-2.56
RadfordBSth3.344.6555.5656.430.370.60
UNC AshevilleBSth3.354.6550.0056.030.000.56
LibertyBSth3.344.6552.9455.150.200.48
Charleston SouthernBSth3.334.6420.0027.19-2.00-2.12
Gardner WebbBSth3.264.6241.1840.55-0.58-0.87
CampbellBSth3.254.6150.0047.590.00-0.22
High PointBSth3.254.6140.0045.27-0.65-0.44
WinthropBSth0.634.6150.0056.570.000.61
UNC GreensboroSC3.172.0766.6766.411.060.68
VMISC3.102.0420.0021.22-1.86-1.18
CornellIvy2.941.8928.5730.56-1.26-0.73
ColumbiaIvy2.871.8514.2929.53-2.05-0.76
DelawareCAA2.961.8544.4440.97-0.33-0.33
IllinoisB102.851.8242.1141.67-0.45-0.30
Grand CanyonWAC2.851.8268.4270.191.050.73
Arizona St.P122.781.7977.7875.331.540.90
St. Francis PANEC2.781.7950.0057.690.000.27
Stephen F. AustinSlnd2.781.7978.5778.051.591.00
The CitadelSC0.340.2618.7518.37-0.21-0.17
FurmanSC0.160.2666.6768.540.050.10
USC UpstateASun0.320.2611.1118.00-0.25-0.17
Western CarolinaSC0.330.2638.8935.38-0.07-0.08
WoffordSC0.330.2668.7563.660.130.07
South Carolina St.MEAC0.160.2026.3230.45-0.08-0.08
North Carolina St.ACC0.340.2065.0056.350.100.03
MercerSC0.250.1944.4454.87-0.030.02
YaleIvy0.070.1741.1847.61-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.170.1789.4776.990.130.09
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.310.1622.2227.31-0.17-0.07
ElonCAA0.160.1652.6351.090.010.00
VanderbiltSEC0.220.1536.8435.58-0.06-0.04
BrownIvy0.000.1450.0045.130.00-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.1421.4326.340.00-0.07
HarvardIvy0.000.1437.5046.700.00-0.01
PennIvy0.190.1464.7162.690.050.03
PrincetonIvy0.190.1452.9460.230.010.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.1315.7922.64-0.05-0.07
CharlotteCUSA0.160.1323.5325.63-0.09-0.06
TennesseeSEC0.160.1372.2268.930.070.05
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.170.1352.9452.670.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.160.1366.6765.630.050.04
William & MaryCAA0.160.1364.7160.010.050.03
Penn St.B100.170.1361.9055.820.040.02
ChattanoogaSC0.000.1322.2228.570.00-0.06
East Tennessee St.SC0.170.1377.7879.160.100.08
SamfordSC0.000.1327.7832.670.00-0.05
East CarolinaAmer0.150.1342.1132.46-0.02-0.04
Wake ForestACC0.230.1342.1140.46-0.04-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.150.130.003.06-0.15-0.12
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.150.1355.5657.250.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.150.1370.0060.400.060.03
San FranciscoWCC0.230.1250.0048.730.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.150.1225.0028.25-0.07-0.05
DavidsonA100.170.1058.8261.440.030.02
VCUA100.090.1060.0059.710.020.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.170.1035.0031.82-0.05-0.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.150.1057.1460.410.020.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.170.1050.0051.390.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.170.1063.1663.210.040.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.150.0990.4888.970.130.07
MarylandB100.150.0966.6763.130.050.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0929.4133.20-0.03-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.140.0944.4446.01-0.02-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.140.0983.3384.250.090.06
Ohio St.B100.070.0981.8276.870.050.05
ColgatePat0.190.0750.0051.030.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0745.0041.310.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0731.5832.71-0.03-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.090.0773.6869.660.040.03
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0766.6755.900.000.01
Illinois St.MVC0.090.0747.3746.09-0.00-0.01
PittsburghACC0.090.0740.0030.88-0.02-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0755.0052.480.000.00
DuquesneA100.180.0770.0058.090.070.01
NiagaraMAAC0.170.0757.1453.040.020.00
Stony BrookAE0.170.0736.8445.19-0.05-0.01
AmericanPat0.170.0725.0026.03-0.08-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0758.8249.740.01-0.00
BryantNEC0.080.079.5217.12-0.07-0.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0745.0049.280.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.080.0752.3848.530.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0723.5332.570.00-0.02
LamarSlnd0.000.0750.0054.900.000.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.080.0740.0042.51-0.02-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0742.1144.98-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.090.077.1414.82-0.08-0.05
Sacred HeartNEC0.080.0730.0033.48-0.03-0.02
Saint LouisA100.080.0747.3746.93-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0743.7549.110.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.080.0733.3335.21-0.03-0.02
StetsonASun0.080.0733.3336.93-0.03-0.02
WagnerNEC0.080.0764.7164.560.020.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.090.077.6920.08-0.08-0.04
NavyPat0.170.0760.0055.160.030.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.160.0610.0019.62-0.13-0.04
LouisvilleACC0.150.0678.9569.820.090.03
FairfieldMAAC0.080.0638.8944.07-0.02-0.01
FloridaSEC0.080.0673.6871.600.040.03
Fort WayneSum0.080.0652.6351.680.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.080.0666.6765.550.030.02
HamptonMEAC0.080.0625.0043.18-0.04-0.01
HoustonAmer0.080.0678.9573.000.040.03
HowardMEAC0.080.0610.5326.29-0.06-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0633.3333.76-0.03-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0615.0020.28-0.05-0.04
Miami FLACC0.080.0677.7870.410.040.03
UCFAmer0.080.0668.4260.830.030.01
Wright St.Horz0.080.0668.4269.260.030.02
MissouriSEC0.160.0666.6763.150.050.02
ClemsonACC0.070.0684.2173.180.050.03
DrexelCAA0.070.0630.0030.97-0.03-0.02
HofstraCAA0.070.0657.8959.500.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0627.7841.03-0.03-0.01
NevadaMWC0.070.0685.7182.120.050.04
Rhode IslandA100.070.0683.3381.450.050.04
SeattleWAC0.070.0657.8954.500.010.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0663.1665.980.000.02
UC DavisBW0.070.0658.8262.450.010.02
UMKCWAC0.070.0621.0524.76-0.04-0.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.070.0645.0045.03-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0666.6766.030.000.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.140.0647.0654.68-0.010.01
St. John'sBE0.140.0647.3742.16-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.070.0680.0078.940.040.03
CaliforniaP120.070.0636.8431.11-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.070.0660.0053.720.010.00
IndianaB100.000.0660.0052.880.000.00
Michigan St.B100.070.0685.7183.760.050.04
NebraskaB100.070.0663.6459.480.020.01
OregonP120.070.0665.0063.810.020.02
Oregon St.P120.070.0657.8950.860.010.00
RutgersB100.000.0655.0046.650.00-0.00
StanfordP120.070.0655.0050.330.010.00
UtahP120.070.0663.1659.720.020.01
WisconsinB100.070.0650.0046.270.00-0.00
AlbanyAE0.090.0371.4370.250.040.01
ArmyPat0.090.0361.1160.440.020.01
BinghamtonAE0.090.0342.1139.93-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0365.0054.600.030.00
ConnecticutAmer0.090.0352.6347.380.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.090.0322.2227.46-0.05-0.02
MaineAE0.090.0310.5314.83-0.07-0.02
SyracuseACC0.090.0368.4261.280.030.01
ToledoMAC0.090.0366.6767.670.030.01
UMass LowellAE0.090.0333.3333.87-0.03-0.01
VillanovaBE0.090.0394.7490.310.080.03
DukeACC0.080.0389.4785.240.060.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.035.8819.390.00-0.02
LehighPat0.080.0338.8944.74-0.02-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.090.0326.6729.12-0.04-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.090.0352.6355.280.000.00
LSUSEC0.090.0361.1153.190.020.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0328.5731.240.00-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.0372.2258.880.040.01
New OrleansSlnd0.090.0337.5045.24-0.02-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.090.0344.4450.31-0.010.00
RiceCUSA0.090.0311.1117.68-0.07-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.0352.9455.030.010.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.037.6923.240.00-0.02
VirginiaACC0.090.0394.7486.110.080.02
Boise St.MWC0.070.0378.9576.980.040.02
BradleyMVC0.070.0365.0057.890.020.00
BuffaloMAC0.070.0372.2274.940.030.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.030.008.42-0.07-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.0336.8444.03-0.02-0.00
Little RockSB0.070.0322.2225.19-0.04-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.030.0010.26-0.07-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0333.3340.35-0.02-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0317.6534.76-0.04-0.01
Notre DameACC0.070.0363.1661.000.020.01
RichmondA100.070.0331.5834.35-0.03-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.070.0363.1657.530.020.00
UC RiversideBW0.070.0317.6523.84-0.04-0.02
DePaulBE0.070.0342.1134.30-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.070.0343.7540.91-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.070.0347.6243.94-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.070.0384.2179.760.050.02
Kansas St.B120.070.0375.0065.320.040.01
MarshallCUSA0.070.0368.4263.610.030.01
MichiganB100.070.0376.1970.800.040.01
MinnesotaB100.070.0363.6457.610.020.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.0311.1115.30-0.06-0.02
NorthwesternB100.070.0355.0050.370.010.00
PacificWCC0.070.0345.0044.49-0.01-0.00
PurdueB100.000.0390.4888.390.000.02
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0358.8262.830.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.070.0331.5840.82-0.03-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0326.3231.48-0.03-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.070.0330.0039.95-0.03-0.01
UCLAP120.000.0365.0062.050.000.01
UNLVMWC0.070.0373.6865.250.030.01
USCP120.000.0371.4368.300.000.01
WashingtonP120.000.0370.0061.460.000.01
Washington St.P120.000.0347.3741.430.00-0.01
XavierBE0.070.0385.7180.060.050.02