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Through games of Jan 16, 2017.


Longwood

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:321.1
Current RPI:304
Expected SOS:287
Current SOS:271
Current Record:4-11
Expected Record:7-20
Current Conf Record:3-3
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-10
Current OOC Record:1-8
Expected OOC Record:1-8
Expected OOC RPI:343
Expected OOC SOS:275



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-14234.50.02%
12-15243.50.11%
11-16260.40.65%
10-17279.92.96%
9-18297.09.53%
8-19311.519.53%
7-20323.227.25%
6-21331.924.39%
5-22337.912.91%
4-23342.32.64%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Longwood.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Maine (310.9)AEH58-80L0%0.0
11-15Stephen F. Austin (214.9)SlndA66-60L0%0.0
11-23St. Francis PA (282.0)NECA87-72L0%0.0
11-28Dartmouth (307.0)IvyH86-80W100%0.0
12-3James Madison (247.8)CAAH59-71L0%0.0
12-9Creighton (13.7)BEA113-58L0%0.0
12-12George Mason (135.7)A10A97-60L0%0.0
12-19Ball St. (210.2)MACA61-45L0%0.0
12-21Texas Tech (74.2)B12A91-60L0%0.0
12-29Campbell (264.0)BSthH79-77W100%0.0
12-31High Point (265.8)BSthA55-60W100%0.0
1-4Presbyterian (342.6)BSthH79-76W100%0.0
1-7Winthrop (97.9)BSthA83-65L0%0.0
1-11UNC Asheville (87.0)BSthA89-68L0%0.0
1-14Gardner Webb (203.1)BSthH79-85L0%0.0
1-19Radford (213.6)BSthH0-035%-4.3
1-21Charleston Southern (304.3)BSthA0-023%-8.2
1-26Liberty (200.9)BSthH0-026%-7.3
1-28Presbyterian (342.6)BSthA0-051%0.2
2-1High Point (265.8)BSthH0-035%-4.3
2-4Gardner Webb (203.1)BSthA0-010%-14.4
2-9Campbell (264.0)BSthA0-020%-9.6
2-11UNC Asheville (87.0)BSthH0-010%-14.3
2-15Winthrop (97.9)BSthH0-011%-13.7
2-18Radford (213.6)BSthA0-017%-10.5
2-23Liberty (200.9)BSthA0-011%-13.5
2-25Charleston Southern (304.3)BSthH0-043%-1.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Longwood's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Longwood's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Longwood.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
LongwoodBSth26.5626.5026.2325.06-12.63-13.22
UNC AshevilleBSth3.554.7962.5068.810.891.80
Gardner WebbBSth3.654.7940.0047.31-0.73-0.26
LibertyBSth0.434.7943.7547.51-0.05-0.24
RadfordBSth0.424.7937.5040.76-0.11-0.88
CampbellBSth3.664.7850.0045.640.00-0.42
High PointBSth3.764.7835.7140.65-1.07-0.89
PresbyterianBSth3.674.7814.2914.08-2.62-3.44
WinthropBSth3.674.7871.4372.241.572.13
Charleston SouthernBSth0.424.7814.2925.09-0.30-2.38
MaineAE3.451.8916.6719.17-2.30-1.16
DartmouthIvy3.421.8823.0824.10-1.84-0.98
George MasonA103.431.8862.5055.030.860.19
James MadisonCAA3.431.8823.5327.90-1.82-0.83
Ball St.MAC3.331.8560.0052.590.670.10
CreightonBE3.331.8594.1284.222.941.27
St. Francis PANEC3.331.8526.6739.85-1.56-0.38
Stephen F. AustinSlnd3.331.8530.7746.99-1.28-0.11
Texas TechB123.331.8575.0062.571.670.47
VMISC0.330.3414.2915.94-0.23-0.23
FurmanSC0.420.3350.0054.850.000.03
USC UpstateASun0.320.2750.0047.440.00-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.320.2768.7563.230.120.07
GeorgiaSEC0.200.2062.5057.280.050.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.110.2088.2484.300.080.13
William & MaryCAA0.110.2042.8647.10-0.02-0.01
ElonCAA0.190.1947.0649.68-0.01-0.00
VCUA100.200.1977.7873.920.110.09
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.120.1830.7736.76-0.05-0.05
Virginia TechACC0.200.1776.4762.000.110.04
New HampshireAE0.230.1653.3357.150.020.02
Saint LouisA100.310.1629.4125.22-0.13-0.08
Florida St.ACC0.110.1488.8978.090.090.08
Morgan St.MEAC0.220.1437.5044.66-0.06-0.01
The CitadelSC0.220.1435.2930.57-0.07-0.05
Georgia SouthernSB0.110.1362.5060.080.030.03
HamptonMEAC0.220.1326.6740.15-0.10-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.000.1360.0066.130.000.04
StetsonASun0.110.1325.0027.36-0.06-0.06
Western CarolinaSC0.210.1318.7520.57-0.13-0.08
LIU BrooklynNEC0.310.1361.1159.190.070.02
DrexelCAA0.200.1335.2935.38-0.06-0.04
Oklahoma St.B120.110.1356.2553.900.010.01
AkronMAC0.090.1381.2573.540.060.06
Eastern MichiganMAC0.100.1353.8558.520.010.02
UMass LowellAE0.090.1342.1140.71-0.01-0.02
Kansas St.B120.200.1376.4759.430.110.02
West VirginiaB120.100.1388.2484.630.070.09
KansasB120.200.1294.4481.600.170.08
BuffaloMAC0.280.1233.3341.38-0.09-0.02
RichmondA100.190.1264.7158.460.060.02
AlabamaSEC0.100.1062.5057.020.030.01
BryantNEC0.120.1022.2235.43-0.07-0.03
LamarSlnd0.000.1050.0049.650.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.090.1050.0043.300.00-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.090.1046.1545.99-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.110.1075.0076.040.060.05
PennIvy0.100.1042.8648.07-0.01-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.100.1023.0831.01-0.05-0.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.090.1011.7616.67-0.07-0.06
HoustonAmer0.100.1072.2271.210.040.04
MercerSC0.100.1035.2944.06-0.03-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.200.1036.8448.41-0.05-0.00
NebraskaB100.200.1050.0043.370.00-0.01
HartfordAE0.210.1031.5829.37-0.08-0.04
VermontAE0.210.1073.6877.320.100.05
RiceCUSA0.310.1062.5066.050.080.03
BinghamtonAE0.100.0937.5038.15-0.03-0.02
MarquetteBE0.100.0966.6761.490.030.02
Stony BrookAE0.190.0952.9453.520.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.180.0966.6763.320.060.02
ProvidenceBE0.180.0965.0055.360.050.01
TowsonCAA0.190.0950.0052.220.000.00
UMBCAE0.180.0962.5058.760.050.02
Western MichiganMAC0.090.0933.3337.37-0.03-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.110.0766.6766.780.040.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0722.2230.94-0.00-0.03
ClemsonACC0.110.0764.7160.750.030.01
ColgatePat0.110.0716.6723.35-0.07-0.04
CornellIvy0.000.0720.0024.58-0.00-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.110.0747.3741.51-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.120.0758.3361.490.020.02
IllinoisB100.110.0764.7154.360.030.01
ManhattanMAAC0.110.0738.8938.40-0.02-0.02
NavyPat0.110.0741.1843.68-0.02-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0746.1551.22-0.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.110.0762.5060.110.030.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0725.0033.65-0.00-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0760.0061.150.000.02
SamfordSC0.110.0764.7159.940.030.01
TennesseeSEC0.110.0750.0050.990.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.120.0746.1553.13-0.010.00
VanderbiltSEC0.110.0747.0643.82-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.000.0757.1465.270.000.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.100.0737.5045.32-0.03-0.01
HowardMEAC0.100.0712.5028.47-0.08-0.03
IndianaB100.000.0766.6763.930.000.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.0711.1123.11-0.00-0.04
North CarolinaACC0.000.0784.2180.580.000.04
PittsburghACC0.100.0766.6753.190.030.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.100.0731.5839.33-0.04-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.100.0742.1142.66-0.02-0.01
SMUAmer0.100.0778.9576.690.060.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.100.0716.6721.63-0.07-0.04
WagnerNEC0.000.0740.0049.71-0.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.0758.8252.990.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.210.0761.1162.130.050.02
Rhode IslandA100.120.0764.7167.000.040.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.220.0630.7743.59-0.08-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.220.0635.7136.22-0.06-0.02
DuquesneA100.100.0650.0042.110.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.200.0664.7161.890.060.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.100.0643.7543.63-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.100.0661.1156.560.020.01
SienaMAAC0.100.0638.8945.72-0.02-0.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0650.0058.110.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.100.0637.5036.25-0.03-0.02
BradleyMVC0.200.0638.8934.48-0.04-0.02
ButlerBE0.090.0684.2178.360.060.04
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0660.0054.070.000.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.090.0677.7870.850.050.03
DelawareCAA0.000.0629.4127.56-0.00-0.03
DePaulBE0.000.0642.1130.46-0.00-0.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0650.0047.550.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.0652.6348.240.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.090.0644.4445.47-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.200.0650.0051.780.000.00
MassachusettsA100.100.0661.1159.210.020.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0657.1453.400.000.00
Seton HallBE0.090.0666.6758.210.030.01
St. John'sBE0.090.0645.0038.60-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0650.0051.640.000.00
VillanovaBE0.090.0694.7489.170.080.05
XavierBE0.090.0672.2267.490.040.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.200.0633.3333.23-0.07-0.02
BaylorB120.000.0693.7580.460.000.04
Iowa St.B120.100.0664.7161.910.030.01
OklahomaB120.100.0643.7536.61-0.01-0.02
TCUB120.000.0681.2565.210.000.02
TexasB120.000.0641.1835.95-0.00-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.120.0376.4768.380.060.01
Boston CollegeACC0.120.0350.0034.750.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.120.0353.3361.470.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.120.0353.3354.210.010.00
KentuckySEC0.120.0388.2487.320.090.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.120.0325.0028.48-0.06-0.01
MaristMAAC0.120.0331.5829.26-0.04-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.120.0323.0831.10-0.06-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0352.9455.240.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.120.0320.0019.52-0.07-0.02
TulsaAmer0.120.0356.2551.250.010.00
UABCUSA0.120.0358.8263.660.020.01
UtahP120.120.0366.6764.720.040.01
AmericanPat0.100.0323.5329.81-0.06-0.01
LehighPat0.100.0356.2566.290.010.01
NJITASun0.100.0341.1845.41-0.02-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.100.0356.2553.010.010.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.100.0318.7528.06-0.07-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.090.0328.5731.64-0.04-0.01
Arizona St.P120.090.0350.0044.340.00-0.00
Boston UniversityPat0.090.0352.9457.140.010.00
CharlotteCUSA0.090.0343.7543.54-0.01-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.0322.2225.46-0.06-0.02
DavidsonA100.000.0356.2555.710.000.00
DukeACC0.090.0377.7873.720.050.01
FordhamA100.000.0335.2931.83-0.00-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.090.0347.3748.91-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.100.0335.2937.74-0.03-0.01
IUPUISum0.100.0335.2942.41-0.03-0.00
La SalleA100.000.0366.6762.150.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.090.0362.5062.550.020.01
Loyola MDPat0.090.0350.0047.080.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.100.0340.0034.51-0.02-0.01
MississippiSEC0.090.0358.8252.810.020.00
Montana St.BSky0.090.0329.4138.91-0.04-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0366.6750.950.030.00
North FloridaASun0.100.0318.7530.20-0.07-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.100.0331.2537.15-0.04-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0371.4369.670.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.090.0317.6527.61-0.06-0.01
Penn St.B100.100.0361.1150.470.020.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.100.0317.6535.25-0.06-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.090.0338.8939.13-0.02-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.0350.0047.550.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.100.0312.5019.03-0.08-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.090.0350.0066.220.000.01
UMKCWAC0.090.0338.8940.01-0.02-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.100.0377.7877.110.060.02
Washington St.P120.090.0350.0035.490.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.090.0382.3581.030.060.02
AuburnSEC0.100.0364.7154.930.030.00
Idaho St.BSky0.100.036.6718.58-0.08-0.02
LSUSEC0.000.0356.2539.400.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.100.0326.6732.20-0.05-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.100.0343.7543.67-0.01-0.00
UTSACUSA0.100.0343.7538.32-0.01-0.01