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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Longwood

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:337.0
Current RPI:337
Expected SOS:248
Current SOS:248
Current Record:4-26
Expected Record:4-26
Current Conf Record:4-16
Expected Conf Record:4-16
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-11
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-13
Current OOC Record:0-10
Expected OOC Record:0-10
Expected OOC RPI:343
Expected OOC SOS:191



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
4-26337.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Longwood.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Stephen F. Austin (104.0)SlndH61-74L0%0.0
11-14Columbia (316.0)IvyH77-87L0%0.0
11-18St. Francis PA (178.0)NECH56-83L0%0.0
11-21UNC Greensboro (65.0)SCA71-40L0%0.0
11-22Delaware (233.0)CAAN57-65L0%0.0
12-9VMI (313.0)SCA81-70L0%0.0
12-13Illinois (181.0)B10A92-45L0%0.0
12-16Cornell (248.0)IvyH62-69L0%0.0
12-19Arizona St. (66.0)P12A95-61L0%0.0
12-21Grand Canyon (156.0)WACA86-56L0%0.0
12-30Charleston Southern (261.0)BSthA84-43L0%0.0
1-3Presbyterian (319.0)BSthH65-78L0%0.0
1-6Gardner Webb (244.0)BSthH79-73W100%0.0
1-9UNC Asheville (130.0)BSthA90-80L0%0.0
1-12Liberty (211.0)BSthA51-58W100%0.0
1-15Campbell (267.0)BSthH76-62W100%0.0
1-18Radford (128.0)BSthA70-63L0%0.0
1-21High Point (273.0)BSthH55-75L0%0.0
1-24Winthrop (173.0)BSthH78-95L0%0.0
1-27Gardner Webb (244.0)BSthA60-57L0%0.0
2-1Presbyterian (319.0)BSthA67-62L0%0.0
2-3Liberty (211.0)BSthH55-67L0%0.0
2-7UNC Asheville (130.0)BSthH73-78L0%0.0
2-10Campbell (267.0)BSthA88-54L0%0.0
2-15Charleston Southern (261.0)BSthH65-77L0%0.0
2-18Winthrop (173.0)BSthA79-64L0%0.0
2-22High Point (273.0)BSthA75-56L0%0.0
2-24Radford (128.0)BSthH47-70L0%0.0
2-27High Point (273.0)BSthA55-68W100%0.0
3-1Radford (128.0)BSthN59-53L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Longwood's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Longwood's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Longwood.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
LongwoodBSth26.6026.6013.7013.70-19.31-19.31
RadfordBSth6.136.1358.6258.621.061.06
High PointBSth5.965.9637.5037.50-1.49-1.49
LibertyBSth4.594.5955.1755.170.470.47
UNC AshevilleBSth4.514.5158.6258.620.780.78
Charleston SouthernBSth4.504.5038.4638.46-1.04-1.04
WinthropBSth4.494.4953.8553.850.350.35
PresbyterianBSth4.484.4822.2222.22-2.49-2.49
Gardner WebbBSth4.424.4237.0437.04-1.15-1.15
CampbellBSth4.414.4146.1546.15-0.34-0.34
UNC GreensboroSC1.921.9276.6776.671.021.02
VMISC1.921.9222.2222.22-1.06-1.06
CornellIvy1.761.7638.4638.46-0.41-0.41
ColumbiaIvy1.731.7324.0024.00-0.90-0.90
DelawareCAA1.721.7236.6736.67-0.46-0.46
Grand CanyonWAC1.691.6964.5264.520.490.49
IllinoisB101.691.6940.0040.00-0.34-0.34
Arizona St.P121.671.6763.3363.330.440.44
St. Francis PANEC1.671.6755.5655.560.190.19
Stephen F. AustinSlnd1.671.6779.3179.310.980.98
The CitadelSC0.320.3227.5927.59-0.14-0.14
WoffordSC0.290.2960.0060.000.060.06
Western CarolinaSC0.260.2636.6736.67-0.07-0.07
USC UpstateASun0.230.2310.7110.71-0.18-0.18
FurmanSC0.230.2367.7467.740.080.08
ElonCAA0.190.1940.0040.00-0.04-0.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.180.1826.6726.67-0.08-0.08
North Carolina St.ACC0.170.1765.6265.620.050.05
MercerSC0.170.1753.3353.330.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.160.1637.5037.50-0.04-0.04
HarvardIvy0.160.1656.6756.670.020.02
YaleIvy0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.150.1517.8617.86-0.10-0.10
TennesseeSEC0.150.1575.7675.760.080.08
AuburnSEC0.150.1578.1278.120.080.08
College of CharlestonCAA0.150.1577.4277.420.080.08
William & MaryCAA0.150.1558.6258.620.030.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.140.1471.8871.880.060.06
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.140.1430.0030.00-0.06-0.06
East CarolinaAmer0.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
San FranciscoWCC0.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.130.1329.0329.03-0.06-0.06
BrownIvy0.130.1338.4638.46-0.03-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.130.1323.0823.08-0.07-0.07
PennIvy0.130.1374.1974.190.060.06
PrincetonIvy0.130.1342.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.120.1261.7661.760.030.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.120.1244.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.110.1125.8125.81-0.05-0.05
ChattanoogaSC0.110.1125.8125.81-0.05-0.05
SamfordSC0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Nicholls St.Slnd0.110.1160.7160.710.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
Chicago St.WAC0.110.113.333.33-0.10-0.10
Wake ForestACC0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.110.1183.3383.330.070.07
Ohio St.B100.110.1175.0075.000.050.05
PittsburghACC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
DavidsonA100.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
VCUA100.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.090.0936.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0884.8584.850.060.06
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
ColoradoP120.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
NevadaMWC0.080.0879.4179.410.050.05
UC DavisBW0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
UMKCWAC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.080.0865.5265.520.020.02
ColgatePat0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
AmericanPat0.060.0620.0020.00-0.04-0.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.060.069.689.68-0.05-0.05
Central ConnecticutNEC0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.060.0628.5728.57-0.03-0.03
WagnerNEC0.060.0670.0070.000.020.02
NavyPat0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
FloridaSEC0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
UCFAmer0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
LouisvilleACC0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0612.5012.50-0.04-0.04
LamarSlnd0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.068.008.00-0.05-0.05
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0663.3363.330.010.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
ArizonaP120.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
CaliforniaP120.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
ClemsonACC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
DrexelCAA0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
HofstraCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
HowardMEAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
IndianaB100.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
IowaB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.04-0.04
Michigan St.B100.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
OregonP120.050.0564.7164.710.020.02
Oregon St.P120.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
RutgersB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
TowsonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
UtahP120.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
WisconsinB100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
ArmyPat0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
MaineAE0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
VillanovaBE0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
LehighPat0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0332.0032.00-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.036.676.67-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
Kansas St.B120.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
MichiganB100.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
MinnesotaB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
PacificWCC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
RichmondA100.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UCLAP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
USCP120.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0393.9493.940.020.02
WashingtonP120.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Washington St.P120.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
Boise St.MWC0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Little RockSB0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0312.5012.50-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01