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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Longwood

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:325.2
Current RPI:351
Expected SOS:291
Current SOS:351
Current Record:1-3
Expected Record:7-20
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-11
Current OOC Record:1-3
Expected OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC RPI:342
Expected OOC SOS:302



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-13193.70.03%
13-14229.90.14%
12-15251.20.66%
11-16269.91.69%
10-17287.54.46%
9-18303.39.67%
8-19316.115.29%
7-20326.219.93%
6-21334.219.79%
5-22340.015.79%
4-23343.98.13%
3-24346.53.52%
2-25348.10.79%
1-26349.90.10%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Longwood.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Maine (310.8)AEH58-80L0%0.0
11-15Stephen F. Austin (172.6)SlndA66-60L0%0.0
11-23St. Francis PA (251.0)NECA87-72L0%0.0
11-28Dartmouth (310.5)IvyH86-80W100%0.0
12-3James Madison (268.0)CAAH0-034%-5.0
12-9Creighton (25.4)BEA0-00%-33.4
12-12George Mason (200.3)A10A0-011%-14.8
12-19Ball St. (212.5)MACA0-09%-15.8
12-21Texas Tech (68.9)B12A0-01%-30.7
12-29Campbell (309.0)BSthH0-053%1.0
12-31High Point (211.4)BSthA0-017%-11.4
1-4Presbyterian (321.5)BSthH0-061%3.4
1-7Winthrop (119.7)BSthA0-06%-18.5
1-11UNC Asheville (105.8)BSthA0-07%-17.6
1-14Gardner Webb (214.7)BSthH0-030%-6.2
1-19Radford (250.4)BSthH0-044%-1.8
1-21Charleston Southern (257.4)BSthA0-024%-8.4
1-26Liberty (191.4)BSthH0-030%-6.4
1-28Presbyterian (321.5)BSthA0-041%-2.8
2-1High Point (211.4)BSthH0-033%-5.2
2-4Gardner Webb (214.7)BSthA0-015%-12.4
2-9Campbell (309.0)BSthA0-033%-5.2
2-11UNC Asheville (105.8)BSthH0-017%-11.4
2-15Winthrop (119.7)BSthH0-015%-12.3
2-18Radford (250.4)BSthA0-025%-7.9
2-23Liberty (191.4)BSthA0-015%-12.6
2-25Charleston Southern (257.4)BSthH0-043%-2.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Longwood's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Longwood's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Longwood.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
LongwoodBSth30.1026.5018.7523.73-18.82-13.92
UNC AshevilleBSth0.004.7950.0063.130.001.26
Gardner WebbBSth0.004.7820.0046.15-0.00-0.37
High PointBSth0.004.7850.0049.450.00-0.05
LibertyBSth0.004.7840.0048.62-0.00-0.13
RadfordBSth0.004.7833.3334.09-0.00-1.52
CampbellBSth0.004.7825.0031.69-0.00-1.75
PresbyterianBSth0.004.7833.3325.39-0.00-2.35
WinthropBSth0.004.7860.0069.000.001.82
Charleston SouthernBSth0.004.7725.0036.40-0.00-1.30
MaineAE12.501.890.0023.04-12.50-1.02
DartmouthIvy12.501.880.0024.37-12.50-0.97
George MasonA100.001.8857.1441.350.00-0.33
James MadisonCAA0.001.880.0026.83-0.00-0.87
Ball St.MAC0.001.8550.0051.020.000.04
CreightonBE0.001.85100.0075.860.000.96
St. Francis PANEC12.501.8525.0041.79-6.25-0.30
Stephen F. AustinSlnd12.501.850.0054.91-12.500.18
Texas TechB120.001.8585.7162.590.000.47
VMISC0.000.340.0021.15-0.00-0.20
FurmanSC0.000.3320.0049.38-0.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.2733.3338.20-0.00-0.06
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.2666.6758.420.000.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.2683.3377.170.000.14
GeorgiaSEC0.000.2066.6754.380.000.02
William & MaryCAA0.000.2040.0055.44-0.000.02
ElonCAA0.000.1983.3358.030.000.03
VCUA100.000.1985.7178.150.000.11
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.1825.0053.29-0.000.01
Virginia TechACC1.040.1785.7162.920.740.04
New HampshireAE0.000.1650.0057.480.000.02
Saint LouisA100.000.1633.3326.75-0.00-0.07
Florida St.ACC0.000.1485.7162.410.000.03
The CitadelSC0.000.1440.0027.05-0.00-0.06
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.1350.0045.410.00-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.130.0034.18-0.00-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.1316.6737.09-0.00-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.000.1325.0063.95-0.000.04
StetsonASun0.000.1328.5728.26-0.00-0.06
LIU BrooklynNEC1.040.1383.3357.990.690.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.1316.6718.96-0.00-0.08
Oklahoma St.B120.000.1383.3356.560.000.02
AkronMAC0.000.1383.3369.840.000.05
DrexelCAA0.000.1342.8636.82-0.00-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.1350.0055.850.000.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.1325.0040.81-0.00-0.02
Kansas St.B120.000.1385.7155.890.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.1383.3380.550.000.08
KansasB120.000.1285.7176.170.000.06
BuffaloMAC0.000.1240.0050.91-0.000.00
RichmondA100.000.1257.1448.600.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.100.0037.92-0.00-0.03
LamarSlnd0.000.1060.0043.970.00-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.1066.6756.020.000.01
BryantNEC0.000.1028.5750.20-0.000.00
BrownIvy0.000.1050.0042.420.00-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.000.1042.8642.47-0.00-0.01
DaytonA100.000.1066.6772.440.000.04
PennIvy0.000.1040.0057.97-0.000.02
RiceCUSA0.000.1085.7169.010.000.04
Central ConnecticutNEC1.040.1040.0037.65-0.21-0.02
HoustonAmer0.000.1083.3376.370.000.05
MercerSC0.000.1050.0053.050.000.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.1012.5048.98-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.000.1050.0043.610.00-0.01
HartfordAE0.000.1012.5022.55-0.00-0.05
VermontAE0.000.1062.5071.630.000.04
BinghamtonAE0.000.0942.8640.94-0.00-0.02
MarquetteBE0.000.0971.4363.090.000.02
Stony BrookAE0.000.0916.6733.82-0.00-0.03
NortheasternCAA1.040.0957.1448.240.15-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.0971.4356.280.000.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0950.0054.490.000.01
UMBCAE0.000.0980.0055.340.000.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0916.6736.45-0.00-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0714.2929.15-0.00-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0725.0030.93-0.00-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.070.0034.01-0.00-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0750.0058.600.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.07100.0069.770.000.03
Boise St.MWC0.000.0750.0058.980.000.01
ColgatePat0.000.0720.0041.31-0.00-0.01
CornellIvy0.000.0728.5730.63-0.00-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0775.0047.510.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.000.070.0043.04-0.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.0757.1442.660.00-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0733.3338.19-0.00-0.02
SamfordSC0.000.0757.1455.810.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0725.0034.47-0.00-0.02
YaleIvy0.000.0733.3364.14-0.000.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.070.0038.51-0.00-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0742.8637.25-0.00-0.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0766.6753.460.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0720.0034.22-0.00-0.02
HowardMEAC0.000.070.0038.26-0.00-0.02
IndianaB100.000.0783.3375.060.000.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.070.0024.77-0.00-0.03
NavyPat0.000.0728.5743.62-0.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0785.7180.010.000.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0750.0061.810.000.02
PittsburghACC0.000.0785.7155.550.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0725.0039.28-0.00-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0742.8638.05-0.00-0.02
SMUAmer0.000.0757.1469.300.000.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0716.6729.36-0.00-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0757.1448.860.00-0.00
WagnerNEC0.000.0733.3353.85-0.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0771.4352.370.000.00
Old DominionCUSA1.250.0766.6765.810.420.02
Rhode IslandA101.250.0771.4370.330.540.03
DuquesneA101.250.0637.5034.65-0.31-0.02
St. BonaventureA101.250.0666.6770.740.420.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0628.5739.44-0.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0685.7172.660.000.03
SienaMAAC0.000.0628.5750.51-0.000.00
AlbanyAE0.000.0650.0060.380.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0633.3343.64-0.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0650.0029.280.00-0.03
ButlerBE0.000.06100.0075.690.000.03
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0666.6756.360.000.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0662.5056.500.000.01
DelawareCAA0.000.0640.0040.65-0.00-0.01
DePaulBE0.000.0680.0035.960.00-0.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0657.1444.160.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0650.0047.560.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0657.1440.550.00-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0650.0051.820.000.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0683.3358.080.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0642.8645.30-0.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.000.0671.4354.520.000.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0628.5733.92-0.00-0.02
ToledoMAC0.000.0642.8650.36-0.000.00
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0083.120.000.04
XavierBE0.000.06100.0074.800.000.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0642.8646.78-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.000.06100.0074.460.000.03
Iowa St.B120.000.0671.4368.970.000.02
OklahomaB120.000.0683.3351.920.000.00
TCUB120.000.06100.0059.480.000.01
TexasB120.000.0650.0036.240.00-0.02
ArkansasSEC1.560.0483.3362.841.040.01
KentuckySEC1.560.04100.0086.251.560.03
Louisiana MonroeSB1.560.0420.0032.60-0.94-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.040.0020.01-0.00-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0450.0056.430.000.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0460.0039.200.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.0457.1461.940.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0350.0027.250.00-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0350.0059.670.000.01
FairfieldMAAC1.250.0383.3362.080.830.01
MaristMAAC1.250.0342.8635.68-0.18-0.01
AmericanPat1.250.0316.6735.65-0.83-0.01
LehighPat0.000.0333.3367.01-0.000.01
NJITASun1.250.0342.8650.32-0.180.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0366.6766.100.000.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0314.2934.56-0.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0320.0036.00-0.00-0.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0357.1436.050.00-0.01
Boston UniversityPat1.040.0350.0053.530.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0366.6751.090.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0018.22-0.00-0.02
DavidsonA100.000.0383.3368.880.000.01
DukeACC0.000.0387.5078.680.000.02
FordhamA100.000.0357.1443.680.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.0342.8647.69-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0333.3346.81-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.000.0328.5747.72-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.000.0360.0051.780.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0366.6761.340.000.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0333.3340.49-0.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0350.0033.010.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0371.4346.010.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.0350.0062.460.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0371.4350.570.000.00
North FloridaASun0.000.0314.2931.71-0.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0340.0057.49-0.000.00
OhioMAC0.000.0380.0068.320.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.030.0019.30-0.00-0.02
Penn St.B100.000.0362.5043.960.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0316.6732.62-0.00-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0316.6734.31-0.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0350.0046.780.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0023.26-0.00-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0357.1467.020.000.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0371.4356.050.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0385.7174.430.000.02
Washington St.P120.000.0350.0036.820.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.0375.0073.840.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0383.3355.200.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0314.2929.81-0.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.0371.4349.770.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0340.0030.80-0.00-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0350.0053.560.000.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0328.5728.46-0.00-0.01