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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Longwood

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:323.0
Current RPI:323
Expected SOS:302
Current SOS:302
Current Record:7-23
Expected Record:7-23
Current Conf Record:6-14
Expected Conf Record:6-14
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-11
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-12
Current OOC Record:1-9
Expected OOC Record:1-9
Expected OOC RPI:346
Expected OOC SOS:317



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
7-23323.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Longwood.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-20South Carolina St. (203.0)MEACN83-77L0%0.0
11-21Ball St. (179.0)MACN67-78L0%0.0
11-22Eastern Kentucky (211.0)OVCA110-97L0%0.0
11-25Maine (317.0)AEA92-82L0%0.0
11-28Columbia (132.0)IvyA69-70W100%0.0
12-2High Point (158.0)BSthA90-66L0%0.0
12-5UMBC (335.0)AEH59-70L0%0.0
12-12Richmond (121.0)A10A77-59L0%0.0
12-15Oklahoma St. (170.0)B12A73-55L0%0.0
12-19George Mason (201.0)A10A75-70L0%0.0
12-22Dartmouth (284.0)IvyA78-54L0%0.0
12-31UNC Asheville (137.0)BSthH61-70L0%0.0
1-2Gardner Webb (210.0)BSthH66-67L0%0.0
1-6Presbyterian (319.0)BSthA78-65L0%0.0
1-9Coastal Carolina (164.0)BSthH76-61W100%0.0
1-14Campbell (308.0)BSthA57-74W100%0.0
1-19Liberty (264.0)BSthA55-53L0%0.0
1-24Winthrop (130.0)BSthH68-82L0%0.0
1-27Radford (192.0)BSthH81-90L0%0.0
1-30UNC Asheville (137.0)BSthA88-74L0%0.0
2-3Campbell (308.0)BSthH80-79W100%0.0
2-6Charleston Southern (298.0)BSthA76-78W100%0.0
2-11Winthrop (130.0)BSthA88-80L0%0.0
2-13Liberty (264.0)BSthH68-69L0%0.0
2-18High Point (158.0)BSthH80-88L0%0.0
2-20Gardner Webb (210.0)BSthA81-71L0%0.0
2-25Presbyterian (319.0)BSthH73-74L0%0.0
2-27Radford (192.0)BSthA81-92W100%0.0
3-3Charleston Southern (298.0)BSthN75-69W100%0.0
3-4High Point (158.0)BSthN89-78L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Longwood's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Longwood's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Longwood.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
LongwoodBSth26.5026.5026.7126.71-12.34-12.34
High PointBSth5.935.9360.0060.001.191.19
UNC AshevilleBSth4.464.4662.0762.071.081.08
WinthropBSth4.444.4466.6766.671.481.48
Gardner WebbBSth4.434.4342.8642.86-0.63-0.63
PresbyterianBSth4.414.4123.0823.08-2.38-2.38
LibertyBSth4.354.3529.6329.63-1.77-1.77
RadfordBSth4.334.3348.1548.15-0.16-0.16
Charleston SouthernBSth4.324.3224.0024.00-2.25-2.25
CampbellBSth4.294.2936.0036.00-1.20-1.20
Coastal CarolinaBSth2.772.7760.0060.000.550.55
RichmondA101.781.7848.3948.39-0.06-0.06
DartmouthIvy1.751.7530.7730.77-0.67-0.67
MaineAE1.751.7524.1424.14-0.90-0.90
George MasonA101.741.7432.2632.26-0.62-0.62
ColumbiaIvy1.731.7367.8667.860.620.62
UMBCAE1.721.7219.3519.35-1.06-1.06
Ball St.MAC1.721.7256.6756.670.230.23
South Carolina St.MEAC1.721.7253.3353.330.110.11
Eastern KentuckyOVC1.721.7244.8344.83-0.18-0.18
Oklahoma St.B121.691.6935.4835.48-0.49-0.49
FurmanSC0.230.2351.6151.610.010.01
VCUA100.220.2270.5970.590.090.09
Morgan St.MEAC0.180.1826.6726.67-0.08-0.08
VMISC0.180.1822.2222.22-0.10-0.10
PrincetonIvy0.180.1877.7877.780.100.10
Texas TechB120.170.1761.2961.290.040.04
VermontAE0.170.1760.6160.610.040.04
Stony BrookAE0.160.1680.0080.000.100.10
George WashingtonA100.160.1669.7069.700.060.06
BrownIvy0.150.1525.9325.93-0.07-0.07
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.150.1576.6776.670.080.08
GeorgiaSEC0.150.1559.3859.380.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.150.1548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.150.1562.0762.070.040.04
PennIvy0.150.1537.0437.04-0.04-0.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.140.1448.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.140.1420.0020.00-0.09-0.09
Western CarolinaSC0.140.1443.3343.33-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
HartfordAE0.140.1428.1228.12-0.06-0.06
New HampshireAE0.140.1458.6258.620.020.02
Kansas St.B120.130.1351.5251.520.000.00
FordhamA100.130.1355.1755.170.010.01
The CitadelSC0.120.1224.1424.14-0.06-0.06
College of CharlestonCAA0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
WoffordSC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
CornellIvy0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
HarvardIvy0.120.1242.8642.86-0.02-0.02
YaleIvy0.120.1277.7877.780.070.07
USC UpstateASun0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
AkronMAC0.120.1275.7675.760.060.06
Jacksonville St.OVC0.110.1120.6920.69-0.07-0.07
GeorgetownBE0.110.1145.4545.45-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
Western MichiganMAC0.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
TennesseeSEC0.110.1144.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.110.1129.0329.03-0.05-0.05
AlbanyAE0.110.1174.1974.190.050.05
BinghamtonAE0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
UMass LowellAE0.110.1135.7135.71-0.03-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
West VirginiaB120.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
DuquesneA100.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Saint LouisA100.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
StanfordP120.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.090.0941.3841.38-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0921.4321.43-0.05-0.05
UNC GreensboroSC0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
MarquetteBE0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0879.4179.410.050.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.080.0873.3373.330.040.04
DaytonA100.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
TowsonCAA0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
RiderMAAC0.060.0639.3939.39-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
FairfieldMAAC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
ClemsonACC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
AuburnSEC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0684.3884.380.040.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.060.0626.9226.92-0.03-0.03
Notre DameACC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Penn St.B100.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
SienaMAAC0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.060.0635.2935.29-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
BelmontOVC0.060.0663.3363.330.010.01
IowaB100.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
LSUSEC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0664.2964.290.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
NJITASun0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
WagnerNEC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.04-0.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
OhioMAC0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
ToledoMAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
ColgatePat0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
KansasB120.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
La SalleA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
OklahomaB120.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
TCUB120.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
NevadaMWC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
BryantNEC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0372.4172.410.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.030.0375.7675.760.020.02
BucknellPat0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
DelawareCAA0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
LehighPat0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0311.1111.11-0.02-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.030.033.453.45-0.03-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0324.2424.24-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
MinnesotaB100.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0362.8662.860.010.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01