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Through games of Dec 17, 2014.


Longwood

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:316.7
Current RPI:305
Expected SOS:280
Current SOS:244
Current Record:2-8
Expected Record:8-21
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-9
Current OOC Record:2-8
Expected OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC RPI:315
Expected OOC SOS:235



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-14177.00.01%
14-15217.10.14%
13-16237.80.39%
12-17259.41.74%
11-18278.24.28%
10-19294.29.95%
9-20307.615.90%
8-21317.621.28%
7-22325.721.13%
6-23332.315.12%
5-24338.17.36%
4-25342.72.26%
3-26345.00.35%
2-27348.00.08%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Longwood.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-19James Madison (120.8)CAAA82-60L0%0.0
11-21UNC Greensboro (281.9)SCN79-81W100%0.0
11-22Youngstown St. (213.1)HorzN72-82L0%0.0
11-23Eastern Michigan (115.1)MACA79-48L0%0.0
11-26George Washington (78.4)A10A91-66L0%0.0
11-29Iowa (49.3)B10A77-44L0%0.0
12-3Dartmouth (186.6)IvyH74-73W100%0.0
12-6Tennessee Martin (144.0)OVCH67-77L0%0.0
12-14UMBC (335.5)AEA58-53L0%0.0
12-17Miami OH (277.2)MACA71-60L0%0.0
12-28Ball St. (229.1)MACA0-013%-13.5
12-31Winthrop (252.4)BSthA0-016%-11.7
1-3Radford (196.0)BSthH0-036%-4.1
1-8Coastal Carolina (137.4)BSthA0-06%-18.1
1-10Charleston Southern (203.9)BSthA0-015%-12.2
1-14Presbyterian (340.8)BSthH0-085%12.0
1-17Liberty (321.1)BSthH0-055%1.4
1-19High Point (156.9)BSthA0-014%-12.8
1-22Gardner Webb (168.8)BSthA0-012%-13.8
1-28UNC Asheville (219.5)BSthH0-035%-4.6
1-31Presbyterian (340.8)BSthA0-061%3.2
2-3Gardner Webb (168.8)BSthH0-033%-5.0
2-6UNC Asheville (219.5)BSthA0-013%-13.4
2-11Radford (196.0)BSthA0-014%-12.9
2-14Charleston Southern (203.9)BSthH0-039%-3.4
2-17Liberty (321.1)BSthA0-027%-7.3
2-21Winthrop (252.4)BSthH0-040%-3.0
2-23Coastal Carolina (137.4)BSthH0-021%-9.4
2-28Campbell (222.4)BSthH0-040%-2.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Longwood's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Longwood's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Longwood.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
LongwoodBSth27.7126.4321.0526.62-16.04-12.36
RadfordBSth0.254.4250.0054.470.000.40
LibertyBSth0.254.4225.0033.11-0.13-1.49
PresbyterianBSth0.284.420.007.23-0.28-3.78
Gardner WebbBSth0.004.3637.5047.90-0.00-0.18
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.004.3566.6769.310.001.68
UNC AshevilleBSth0.004.3514.2942.97-0.00-0.61
Charleston SouthernBSth0.004.3542.8648.41-0.00-0.14
WinthropBSth0.004.3528.5745.11-0.00-0.42
High PointBSth0.282.8262.5055.100.070.29
CampbellBSth0.252.7925.0044.24-0.13-0.32
Eastern MichiganMAC5.511.9066.6762.141.840.46
Miami OHMAC5.001.8822.2225.88-2.78-0.91
UNC GreensboroSC5.581.8825.0038.92-2.79-0.42
James MadisonCAA5.001.8866.6759.501.670.36
Ball St.MAC0.251.8428.5735.07-0.11-0.55
Tennessee MartinOVC5.001.7957.1465.430.710.55
Youngstown St.Horz5.631.7940.0042.42-1.13-0.27
UMBCAE5.511.780.0018.23-5.51-1.13
George WashingtonA105.251.7562.5065.501.310.54
IowaB105.251.7570.0061.342.100.40
DartmouthIvy5.001.7250.0049.200.00-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.230.2450.0033.280.00-0.08
Virginia TechACC0.250.2255.5638.100.03-0.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.280.2055.5638.460.03-0.05
East Tennessee St.SC0.280.1971.4364.070.120.05
Western CarolinaSC0.000.1922.2245.85-0.00-0.02
WoffordSC0.000.1977.7876.160.000.10
FurmanSC0.000.1925.0029.26-0.00-0.08
Central MichiganMAC0.230.1885.7170.330.160.08
OhioMAC0.000.1850.0037.520.00-0.05
Kent St.MAC0.230.1871.4361.390.100.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.280.1850.0053.700.000.01
RichmondA100.250.1850.0057.040.000.03
Ohio St.B100.250.1790.0084.620.200.12
ClemsonACC0.000.1666.6745.400.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.250.1655.5653.800.030.01
SamfordSC0.000.1633.3331.37-0.00-0.06
ToledoMAC0.000.1560.0059.520.000.03
Western MichiganMAC0.000.1562.5055.120.000.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.1575.0067.080.000.05
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1550.0044.640.00-0.02
AkronMAC0.250.1560.0056.780.050.02
AuburnSEC0.000.1344.4435.62-0.00-0.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.130.0017.71-0.00-0.09
MississippiSEC0.000.1366.6752.510.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.1318.1827.98-0.00-0.06
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.1320.0029.28-0.00-0.05
ChattanoogaSC0.000.1344.4451.18-0.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.1327.2737.77-0.00-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.250.1237.5038.59-0.06-0.03
CornellIvy0.000.1255.5648.590.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.1275.0069.340.000.05
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1280.0069.840.000.05
DelawareCAA0.000.120.008.74-0.00-0.10
ElonCAA0.250.1237.5048.14-0.06-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.280.1055.5665.660.030.03
Morehead St.OVC0.000.1018.1846.19-0.00-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0933.3339.12-0.00-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.090.0024.33-0.00-0.05
MarylandB100.000.0990.9167.700.000.03
Seton HallBE0.280.0988.8963.530.220.03
OaklandHorz0.360.0930.0032.16-0.14-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.310.0918.1821.69-0.20-0.05
MercerSC0.280.0937.5041.84-0.07-0.02
North FloridaASun0.000.0944.4456.92-0.000.01
PurdueB100.000.0972.7363.690.000.03
HowardMEAC0.250.0930.0044.01-0.10-0.01
VMISC0.000.0933.3338.88-0.00-0.02
DaytonA100.610.0977.7869.890.340.04
DavidsonA100.000.0987.5077.040.000.05
HartfordAE0.280.0950.0050.820.000.00
MaineAE0.280.0911.1121.17-0.22-0.05
New HampshireAE0.280.0957.1464.510.040.03
UMass LowellAE0.280.0955.5654.600.030.01
VermontAE0.000.0950.0059.880.000.02
Penn St.B100.280.0990.9154.060.230.01
NebraskaB100.310.0966.6743.830.10-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0957.1456.560.000.01
MinnesotaB100.250.0977.7864.890.140.03
TowsonCAA0.250.0966.6751.310.080.00
NorthwesternB100.250.0860.0040.460.05-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.000.07100.0077.970.000.04
Florida St.ACC0.000.0750.0037.400.00-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0733.3345.26-0.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0781.8264.060.000.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0762.5064.360.000.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0711.1143.93-0.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.0733.3338.24-0.00-0.02
UCLAP120.000.0772.7357.410.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0750.0038.030.00-0.02
AmericanPat0.000.0660.0065.060.000.02
ArizonaP120.000.06100.0080.830.000.04
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0622.2230.96-0.00-0.02
DukeACC0.000.06100.0087.440.000.05
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0610.0018.36-0.00-0.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0670.0066.610.000.02
LSUSEC0.000.0677.7862.380.000.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0620.0037.19-0.00-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.0655.5661.640.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0688.8981.120.000.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0644.4447.39-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0622.2240.77-0.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.310.0620.0034.02-0.19-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.540.0666.6764.900.180.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.310.0625.0033.13-0.16-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.250.0641.6744.37-0.04-0.01
BrownIvy0.000.0640.0033.85-0.00-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0637.5048.87-0.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0662.5065.190.000.02
DetroitHorz0.000.0644.4449.46-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.0666.6759.320.000.01
Green BayHorz0.000.0675.0078.710.000.04
HarvardIvy0.000.0685.7172.940.000.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0633.3334.56-0.00-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0023.23-0.00-0.03
PennIvy0.000.0637.5032.89-0.00-0.02
SienaMAAC0.000.0637.5051.47-0.000.00
TCUB120.000.06100.0066.280.000.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0625.0028.71-0.00-0.03
The CitadelSC0.000.0616.6730.49-0.00-0.02
YaleIvy0.000.0670.0064.820.000.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.280.060.008.81-0.28-0.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.230.0636.3633.75-0.06-0.02
NJITind0.000.0636.3640.81-0.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.280.0675.0064.990.140.02
MichiganB100.360.0655.5642.690.04-0.01
Michigan St.B100.360.0672.7373.120.160.03
IPFWSum0.530.0657.1456.730.080.01
UMKCWAC0.230.0622.2242.15-0.13-0.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0633.3348.85-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.000.060.0012.01-0.00-0.05
DuquesneA100.000.0628.5731.25-0.00-0.02
George MasonA100.000.0625.0025.95-0.00-0.03
Stony BrookAE0.000.0637.5055.05-0.000.01
VCUA100.000.0670.0071.520.000.03
ColgatePat0.250.0620.0042.80-0.15-0.01
IndianaB100.280.0680.0057.470.170.01
North CarolinaACC0.510.0670.0071.470.200.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.250.0650.0058.660.000.01
RutgersB100.280.0660.0034.930.06-0.02
VirginiaACC0.530.06100.0085.770.530.04
DrexelCAA0.000.0625.0037.61-0.00-0.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0677.7878.200.000.03
NortheasternCAA0.000.0666.6757.570.000.01
WisconsinB100.000.0690.9188.430.000.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0320.0038.33-0.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.310.0333.3345.72-0.10-0.00
BelmontOVC0.000.0360.0062.430.000.01
ButlerBE0.000.0380.0072.470.000.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0311.1129.64-0.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0014.70-0.00-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0342.8655.67-0.000.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0366.6754.090.000.00
MarquetteBE0.310.0355.5647.640.03-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0337.5040.12-0.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0016.94-0.00-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0350.0049.770.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.000.0328.5747.24-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0340.0046.88-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0333.3332.85-0.00-0.01
IUPUISum0.000.0320.0026.18-0.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.230.0330.0039.75-0.09-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0370.0072.770.000.01
South DakotaSum0.230.0320.0039.57-0.14-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.230.0377.7865.350.130.01
UtahP120.000.0377.7879.670.000.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.250.0322.2231.12-0.14-0.01
DePaulBE0.280.0366.6738.970.09-0.01
FordhamA100.000.0328.5728.28-0.00-0.01
La SalleA100.000.0350.0049.770.00-0.00
LehighPat0.000.0342.8652.31-0.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.250.0333.3327.49-0.08-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0360.0055.530.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.0362.5073.580.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0355.5640.200.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0360.0034.010.00-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.250.0375.0070.220.130.01
Southern UtahBSky0.250.0316.6727.11-0.17-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.230.030.0028.64-0.23-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.230.0340.0050.16-0.050.00
IllinoisB100.000.0372.7365.950.000.01
Iowa St.B120.230.0388.8964.130.180.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0350.0056.370.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.230.0355.5656.480.030.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0390.0078.120.000.02
PepperdineWCC0.230.0375.0058.890.110.00
SyracuseACC0.230.0366.6757.600.080.00
TexasB120.230.0390.0081.760.180.02