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Through games of Feb 12, 2016.


Longwood

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:320.4
Current RPI:318
Expected SOS:296
Current SOS:284
Current Record:5-18
Expected Record:7-21
Current Conf Record:4-9
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-11
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-9
Current OOC Record:1-9
Expected OOC Record:1-9
Expected OOC RPI:342
Expected OOC SOS:306



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-18280.30.49%
9-19295.24.52%
8-20308.321.20%
7-21320.638.26%
6-22329.828.62%
5-23336.56.90%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Longwood.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-20South Carolina St. (208.4)MEACN83-77L0%0.0
11-21Ball St. (168.1)MACN67-78L0%0.0
11-22Eastern Kentucky (202.5)OVCA110-97L0%0.0
11-25Maine (310.1)AEA92-82L0%0.0
11-28Columbia (123.0)IvyA69-70W100%0.0
12-2High Point (189.0)BSthA90-66L0%0.0
12-5UMBC (320.8)AEH59-70L0%0.0
12-12Richmond (104.8)A10A77-59L0%0.0
12-15Oklahoma St. (148.9)B12A73-55L0%0.0
12-19George Mason (192.1)A10A75-70L0%0.0
12-22Dartmouth (294.2)IvyA78-54L0%0.0
12-31UNC Asheville (150.3)BSthH61-70L0%0.0
1-2Gardner Webb (221.4)BSthH66-67L0%0.0
1-6Presbyterian (335.9)BSthA78-65L0%0.0
1-9Coastal Carolina (168.1)BSthH76-61W100%0.0
1-14Campbell (323.3)BSthA57-74W100%0.0
1-19Liberty (264.2)BSthA55-53L0%0.0
1-24Winthrop (161.5)BSthH68-82L0%0.0
1-27Radford (159.3)BSthH81-90L0%0.0
1-30UNC Asheville (150.3)BSthA88-74L0%0.0
2-3Campbell (323.3)BSthH80-79W100%0.0
2-6Charleston Southern (274.0)BSthA76-78W100%0.0
2-11Winthrop (161.5)BSthA88-80L0%0.0
2-13Liberty (264.2)BSthH0-056%1.6
2-18High Point (189.0)BSthH0-026%-7.0
2-20Gardner Webb (221.4)BSthA0-023%-8.0
2-25Presbyterian (335.9)BSthH0-067%4.8
2-27Radford (159.3)BSthA0-017%-10.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Longwood's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Longwood's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Longwood.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
LongwoodBSth26.4026.4425.7126.83-12.82-12.25
RadfordBSth2.964.5550.0051.200.000.11
LibertyBSth2.974.5431.8233.81-1.08-1.47
PresbyterianBSth2.964.5420.0022.07-1.77-2.53
UNC AshevilleBSth5.094.5159.0960.640.930.96
Gardner WebbBSth3.024.5140.9141.74-0.55-0.75
CampbellBSth5.084.5135.0034.75-1.52-1.37
High PointBSth2.914.5155.0057.610.290.69
WinthropBSth4.984.5063.1660.771.310.97
Charleston SouthernBSth3.062.8628.5728.92-1.31-1.20
Coastal CarolinaBSth3.012.8560.0060.070.600.57
RichmondA102.271.9154.5554.300.210.16
DartmouthIvy2.271.8826.3228.53-1.07-0.81
MaineAE2.311.8829.1728.71-0.96-0.80
George MasonA102.271.8730.4331.41-0.89-0.70
ColumbiaIvy2.231.8571.4367.910.950.66
Ball St.MAC2.261.8559.0955.690.410.21
Eastern KentuckyOVC2.271.8548.0047.57-0.09-0.09
UMBCAE2.261.8520.0023.41-1.36-0.98
South Carolina St.MEAC2.261.8550.0052.440.000.09
Oklahoma St.B122.221.8143.4840.37-0.29-0.35
FurmanSC0.240.2656.0054.430.030.02
VCUA100.190.2470.8371.030.080.10
VMISC0.200.2019.0519.67-0.12-0.12
PrincetonIvy0.100.1973.6875.880.050.10
George WashingtonA100.140.1875.0071.980.070.08
Morgan St.MEAC0.200.1719.0525.89-0.12-0.08
Savannah St.MEAC0.140.1638.1037.68-0.03-0.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.190.1677.2773.930.100.08
BrownIvy0.090.1630.0030.54-0.04-0.06
PennIvy0.150.1636.8437.30-0.04-0.04
Texas TechB120.140.1660.8755.310.030.02
HowardMEAC0.140.1636.3638.95-0.04-0.03
HartfordAE0.140.1524.0024.55-0.07-0.08
New HampshireAE0.180.1559.0956.880.030.02
VermontAE0.180.1552.0054.840.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.180.1582.6183.030.120.10
GeorgiaSEC0.160.1459.0955.160.030.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.160.1450.0048.970.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.150.1430.4329.49-0.06-0.06
USC UpstateASun0.160.1421.7422.42-0.09-0.08
College of CharlestonCAA0.200.1460.8758.910.040.02
WoffordSC0.150.1445.8348.12-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.140.1313.0416.41-0.11-0.09
Western CarolinaSC0.140.1331.8234.54-0.05-0.04
William & MaryCAA0.100.1368.1867.120.040.05
TennesseeSEC0.140.1350.0048.120.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.150.1324.0024.16-0.08-0.07
East Tennessee St.SC0.180.1360.8760.240.040.03
CornellIvy0.150.1340.0039.00-0.03-0.03
HarvardIvy0.160.1338.1039.12-0.04-0.03
YaleIvy0.100.1375.0075.100.050.06
GeorgetownBE0.140.1356.0052.860.020.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.140.1229.1733.75-0.06-0.04
Western MichiganMAC0.140.1231.8232.68-0.05-0.04
James MadisonCAA0.140.1272.0071.330.060.05
Kansas St.B120.140.1258.3356.290.020.02
DuquesneA100.130.1260.8756.270.030.01
AlbanyAE0.130.1273.0873.770.060.06
BinghamtonAE0.090.1224.0026.42-0.04-0.06
UMass LowellAE0.130.1237.5037.68-0.03-0.03
FordhamA100.140.1252.3850.690.010.00
DavidsonA100.090.1261.9058.180.020.02
West VirginiaB120.130.1279.1778.100.080.07
Alabama St.SWAC0.160.1028.5733.29-0.07-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.150.1059.0961.290.030.02
MarquetteBE0.100.1064.0057.890.030.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.140.1016.6719.49-0.09-0.06
ArmyPat0.090.1054.1754.290.010.01
AkronMAC0.140.1082.6181.130.090.06
Wake ForestACC0.140.0941.6739.90-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.090.0931.8236.13-0.03-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.090.0934.7832.89-0.03-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.140.0972.7370.390.060.04
ManhattanMAAC0.140.0945.4543.17-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.140.0983.3381.270.090.06
Saint LouisA100.090.0934.7832.39-0.03-0.03
TowsonCAA0.130.0962.5057.720.030.01
AlabamaSEC0.100.0760.8755.980.020.01
CharlotteCUSA0.100.0737.5042.32-0.02-0.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0758.3358.410.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.100.0742.8641.32-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0726.0928.41-0.02-0.03
StanfordP120.100.0747.6244.07-0.00-0.01
IowaB100.050.0779.1778.890.030.04
LSUSEC0.050.0762.5059.070.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0714.2924.87-0.03-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0758.3359.970.010.01
AuburnSEC0.100.0639.1335.44-0.02-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.100.0654.1754.100.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.100.0650.0051.280.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0625.0028.14-0.02-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0683.3383.710.030.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.069.0912.25-0.08-0.05
ElonCAA0.090.0650.0050.080.000.00
LamarSlnd0.050.0630.0029.17-0.02-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.090.0645.8343.78-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.090.0668.1867.730.030.02
Notre DameACC0.050.0670.8367.910.020.02
Penn St.B100.050.0650.0046.760.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.069.0917.13-0.04-0.04
SienaMAAC0.050.0665.3864.920.010.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0640.0043.49-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.090.0675.0075.350.050.03
TulaneAmer0.050.0636.0034.84-0.01-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.050.0652.0048.910.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.090.0654.1753.810.010.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.0614.2920.63-0.06-0.04
NJITASun0.090.0656.0055.640.010.01
WagnerNEC0.090.0660.8762.520.020.01
BelmontOVC0.040.0668.0066.640.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0647.6249.39-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.090.0639.1341.06-0.02-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0640.0043.21-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0652.1753.440.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0660.0057.680.000.01
OhioMAC0.090.0665.2263.630.030.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.040.0668.1865.190.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.040.0665.2264.330.010.02
ToledoMAC0.050.0660.8762.070.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.0650.0045.860.00-0.00
DaytonA100.050.0687.5083.730.030.04
FloridaSEC0.090.0666.6766.320.030.02
La SalleA100.050.0619.0520.30-0.03-0.03
MassachusettsA100.050.0643.4842.42-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.090.0656.0055.450.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.090.0656.0055.750.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.0650.0050.500.000.00
BaylorB120.090.0673.9168.450.040.02
ColgatePat0.090.0643.4844.88-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0670.8367.960.020.02
KansasB120.050.0682.6179.210.030.03
Long Beach St.BW0.090.0647.8351.93-0.000.00
OklahomaB120.050.0686.9682.620.030.04
TCUB120.090.0645.8339.36-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.050.0666.6762.200.020.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0485.0083.450.040.02
NevadaMWC0.050.0457.1455.350.010.00
ArkansasSEC0.050.0350.0052.940.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.050.0366.6763.330.020.01
RiderMAAC0.050.0338.4641.36-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0373.9176.700.020.02
BryantNEC0.050.0324.0024.92-0.03-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0366.6767.660.020.01
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0342.3144.49-0.01-0.00
MaristMAAC0.050.0321.7424.25-0.03-0.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0370.8368.090.020.01
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0341.6739.50-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0325.0025.09-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0347.8348.57-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0343.4850.67-0.010.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0329.1733.08-0.02-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0325.0033.24-0.02-0.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0360.0055.570.010.00
Boston CollegeACC0.040.0329.1726.68-0.02-0.01
BucknellPat0.050.0352.1754.970.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.040.0312.5013.26-0.03-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.040.0370.8370.130.020.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0325.0024.91-0.02-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.040.0341.6739.59-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.050.0339.1342.83-0.01-0.00
NorthwesternB100.050.0364.0062.090.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.040.0334.7834.94-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0326.9228.60-0.02-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0336.8442.87-0.01-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.040.0340.0042.85-0.01-0.00
BradleyMVC0.050.0312.0011.95-0.04-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.050.0354.1754.420.000.00
CaliforniaP120.050.0366.6764.780.020.01
Chicago St.WAC0.050.034.357.71-0.04-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.040.0326.0927.89-0.02-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0350.0049.490.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.050.0338.4638.50-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0365.2260.710.010.01
KentuckySEC0.040.0375.0072.620.020.01
MarshallCUSA0.040.0350.0051.150.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.040.0347.8350.90-0.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0326.3232.42-0.02-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0358.3363.160.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.050.0358.3360.910.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.040.0313.0415.26-0.03-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.040.0314.2914.92-0.03-0.02
StetsonASun0.050.0322.7327.37-0.03-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0382.6183.030.030.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.040.0345.4546.07-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0324.0025.68-0.02-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.040.0328.5734.10-0.02-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.040.0333.3335.19-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.050.0366.6767.110.020.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0325.0027.25-0.02-0.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0362.5058.940.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0337.5037.41-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.040.0342.3146.12-0.01-0.00
NavyPat0.040.0364.0064.470.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.040.0327.2726.46-0.02-0.01
St. John'sBE0.040.0325.0023.43-0.02-0.02
TulsaAmer0.050.0366.6764.730.020.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0328.5732.73-0.02-0.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0383.3378.460.030.02