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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Longwood

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:316.0
Current RPI:316
Expected SOS:304
Current SOS:304
Current Record:9-23
Expected Record:9-23
Current Conf Record:7-14
Expected Conf Record:7-14
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-10
Current OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC RPI:334
Expected OOC SOS:307



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
9-23316.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Longwood.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-19James Madison (148.0)CAAA82-60L0%0.0
11-21UNC Greensboro (309.0)SCN79-81W100%0.0
11-22Youngstown St. (291.0)HorzN72-82L0%0.0
11-23Eastern Michigan (139.0)MACA79-48L0%0.0
11-26George Washington (84.0)A10A91-66L0%0.0
11-29Iowa (43.0)B10A77-44L0%0.0
12-3Dartmouth (186.0)IvyH74-73W100%0.0
12-6Tennessee Martin (177.0)OVCH67-77L0%0.0
12-14UMBC (346.0)AEA58-53L0%0.0
12-17Miami OH (229.0)MACA71-60L0%0.0
12-28Ball St. (284.0)MACA69-64L0%0.0
12-31Winthrop (210.0)BSthA82-72L0%0.0
1-3Radford (154.0)BSthH90-79W100%0.0
1-8Coastal Carolina (124.0)BSthA76-70L0%0.0
1-10Charleston Southern (164.0)BSthA68-54L0%0.0
1-14Presbyterian (315.0)BSthH67-71L0%0.0
1-17Liberty (347.0)BSthH85-71W100%0.0
1-19High Point (89.0)BSthA72-67L0%0.0
1-22Gardner Webb (146.0)BSthA79-67L0%0.0
1-28UNC Asheville (249.0)BSthH64-74L0%0.0
1-31Presbyterian (315.0)BSthA67-71W100%0.0
2-3Gardner Webb (146.0)BSthH78-87L0%0.0
2-6UNC Asheville (249.0)BSthA71-56L0%0.0
2-11Radford (154.0)BSthA80-75L0%0.0
2-14Charleston Southern (164.0)BSthH64-65L0%0.0
2-17Liberty (347.0)BSthA72-78W100%0.0
2-21Winthrop (210.0)BSthH59-83L0%0.0
2-23Coastal Carolina (124.0)BSthH59-72L0%0.0
2-28Campbell (323.0)BSthH70-65W100%0.0
3-4Presbyterian (315.0)BSthN61-65W100%0.0
3-6Charleston Southern (164.0)BSthN60-68W100%0.0
3-7Winthrop (210.0)BSthN71-58L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Longwood's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Longwood's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Longwood.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
LongwoodBSth26.6426.6428.8728.87-11.26-11.26
WinthropBSth5.655.6550.0050.000.000.00
PresbyterianBSth5.625.6220.0020.00-3.37-3.37
Charleston SouthernBSth5.535.5358.3358.330.920.92
Coastal CarolinaBSth4.234.2366.6766.671.411.41
RadfordBSth4.204.2062.9662.961.091.09
LibertyBSth4.174.1715.3815.38-2.89-2.89
Gardner WebbBSth4.154.1550.0050.000.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth4.114.1138.4638.46-0.95-0.95
High PointBSth2.712.7166.6766.670.900.90
CampbellBSth2.692.6925.0025.00-1.34-1.34
Eastern MichiganMAC1.741.7455.1755.170.180.18
UNC GreensboroSC1.731.7327.5927.59-0.77-0.77
Miami OHMAC1.721.7236.6736.67-0.46-0.46
James MadisonCAA1.701.7058.0658.060.270.27
Ball St.MAC1.661.6617.8617.86-1.07-1.07
Tennessee MartinOVC1.651.6555.5655.560.180.18
Youngstown St.Horz1.611.6125.0025.00-0.81-0.81
UMBCAE1.611.6110.3410.34-1.28-1.28
George WashingtonA101.591.5962.5062.500.400.40
IowaB101.591.5964.5264.520.460.46
DartmouthIvy1.561.5651.8551.850.060.06
WoffordSC0.250.2581.2581.250.160.16
Virginia TechACC0.220.2233.3333.33-0.07-0.07
Northern IllinoisMAC0.210.2144.8344.83-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.190.1943.3343.33-0.03-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.190.1934.4834.48-0.06-0.06
SamfordSC0.190.1938.7138.71-0.04-0.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.190.1950.0050.000.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.180.1866.6766.670.060.06
Wright St.Horz0.170.1731.0331.03-0.06-0.06
Savannah St.MEAC0.160.1624.1424.14-0.08-0.08
ClemsonACC0.160.1651.6151.610.010.01
FurmanSC0.160.1629.0329.03-0.07-0.07
Central MichiganMAC0.160.1671.4371.430.070.07
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.160.1656.6756.670.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.160.1664.5264.520.050.05
ToledoMAC0.160.1660.6160.610.030.03
RichmondA100.150.1559.3859.380.030.03
Ohio St.B100.150.1569.7069.700.060.06
OhioMAC0.150.1533.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Central ArkansasSlnd0.140.146.906.90-0.12-0.12
MississippiSEC0.140.1462.5062.500.040.04
Morehead St.OVC0.140.1446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.130.1341.1841.18-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.130.1358.0658.060.020.02
AkronMAC0.130.1358.8258.820.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.130.1327.2727.27-0.06-0.06
PrincetonIvy0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
CornellIvy0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.110.1129.0329.03-0.05-0.05
East CarolinaAmer0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
MarylandB100.110.1181.8281.820.070.07
ValparaisoHorz0.110.1183.3383.330.070.07
DelawareCAA0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.100.1071.8871.880.050.05
Penn St.B100.100.1052.9452.940.010.01
ElonCAA0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.090.0981.2581.250.050.05
Florida St.ACC0.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
AmericanPat0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
DukeACC0.080.0887.8887.880.060.06
Louisiana TechCUSA0.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0838.4638.46-0.02-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
DetroitHorz0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
North FloridaASun0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
HartfordAE0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.080.0810.0010.00-0.06-0.06
MercerSC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
New HampshireAE0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
PurdueB100.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Seton HallBE0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
VMISC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
DaytonA100.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
MinnesotaB100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
TowsonCAA0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
DavidsonA100.070.0776.6776.670.040.04
NorthwesternB100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
DuquesneA100.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
BrownIvy0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0644.4444.44-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.060.0674.0774.070.030.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
PennIvy0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
UABCUSA0.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
NJITind0.050.0556.0056.000.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Green BayHorz0.050.0573.3373.330.030.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
SienaMAAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
TCUB120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
UCLAP120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
IPFWSum0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
ArizonaP120.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
BinghamtonAE0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
LSUSEC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
Stony BrookAE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
The CitadelSC0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
ColgatePat0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.050.000.00-0.05-0.05
IndianaB100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
MichiganB100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
DrexelCAA0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
WisconsinB100.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
RutgersB100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.050.0590.6290.620.040.04
George MasonA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
VCUA100.050.0574.2974.290.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
BryantNEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
ButlerBE0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
UtahP120.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.020.0216.6716.67-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Iowa St.B120.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0290.9190.910.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
SyracuseACC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
TexasB120.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
ColoradoP120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
MassachusettsA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.020.0287.1087.100.020.02