Longwood

Conference:	BSth
Expected RPI:	337.0
Current RPI:	337
Expected SOS:	248
Current SOS:	248
Current Record:	4-26
Expected Record:	4-26
Current Conf Record:	4-16
Expected Conf Record:	4-16
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-11
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	4-13
Current OOC Record:	0-10
Expected OOC Record:	0-10
Expected OOC RPI:	343
Expected OOC SOS:	191

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
4-26	337.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Longwood.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Stephen F. Austin (104.0)	Slnd	H	61-74	L	0%
11-14	Columbia (316.0)	Ivy	H	77-87	L	0%
11-18	St. Francis PA (178.0)	NEC	H	56-83	L	0%
11-21	UNC Greensboro (65.0)	SC	A	71-40	L	0%
11-22	Delaware (233.0)	CAA	N	57-65	L	0%
12-9	VMI (313.0)	SC	A	81-70	L	0%
12-13	Illinois (181.0)	B10	A	92-45	L	0%
12-16	Cornell (248.0)	Ivy	H	62-69	L	0%
12-19	Arizona St. (66.0)	P12	A	95-61	L	0%
12-21	Grand Canyon (156.0)	WAC	A	86-56	L	0%
12-30	Charleston Southern (261.0)	BSth	A	84-43	L	0%
1-3	Presbyterian (319.0)	BSth	H	65-78	L	0%
1-6	Gardner Webb (244.0)	BSth	H	79-73	W	100%
1-9	UNC Asheville (130.0)	BSth	A	90-80	L	0%
1-12	Liberty (211.0)	BSth	A	51-58	W	100%
1-15	Campbell (267.0)	BSth	H	76-62	W	100%
1-18	Radford (128.0)	BSth	A	70-63	L	0%
1-21	High Point (273.0)	BSth	H	55-75	L	0%
1-24	Winthrop (173.0)	BSth	H	78-95	L	0%
1-27	Gardner Webb (244.0)	BSth	A	60-57	L	0%
2-1	Presbyterian (319.0)	BSth	A	67-62	L	0%
2-3	Liberty (211.0)	BSth	H	55-67	L	0%
2-7	UNC Asheville (130.0)	BSth	H	73-78	L	0%
2-10	Campbell (267.0)	BSth	A	88-54	L	0%
2-15	Charleston Southern (261.0)	BSth	H	65-77	L	0%
2-18	Winthrop (173.0)	BSth	A	79-64	L	0%
2-22	High Point (273.0)	BSth	A	75-56	L	0%
2-24	Radford (128.0)	BSth	H	47-70	L	0%
2-27	High Point (273.0)	BSth	A	55-68	W	100%
3-1	Radford (128.0)	BSth	N	59-53	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Longwood's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Longwood's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Longwood.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Longwood	BSth	26.60	26.60	13.70	13.70	-19.31	-19.31
Radford	BSth	6.13	6.13	58.62	58.62	1.06	1.06
High Point	BSth	5.96	5.96	37.50	37.50	-1.49	-1.49
Liberty	BSth	4.59	4.59	55.17	55.17	0.47	0.47
UNC Asheville	BSth	4.51	4.51	58.62	58.62	0.78	0.78
Charleston Southern	BSth	4.50	4.50	38.46	38.46	-1.04	-1.04
Winthrop	BSth	4.49	4.49	53.85	53.85	0.35	0.35
Presbyterian	BSth	4.48	4.48	22.22	22.22	-2.49	-2.49
Gardner Webb	BSth	4.42	4.42	37.04	37.04	-1.15	-1.15
Campbell	BSth	4.41	4.41	46.15	46.15	-0.34	-0.34
UNC Greensboro	SC	1.92	1.92	76.67	76.67	1.02	1.02
VMI	SC	1.92	1.92	22.22	22.22	-1.06	-1.06
Cornell	Ivy	1.76	1.76	38.46	38.46	-0.41	-0.41
Columbia	Ivy	1.73	1.73	24.00	24.00	-0.90	-0.90
Delaware	CAA	1.72	1.72	36.67	36.67	-0.46	-0.46
Grand Canyon	WAC	1.69	1.69	64.52	64.52	0.49	0.49
Illinois	B10	1.69	1.69	40.00	40.00	-0.34	-0.34
Arizona St.	P12	1.67	1.67	63.33	63.33	0.44	0.44
St. Francis PA	NEC	1.67	1.67	55.56	55.56	0.19	0.19
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	1.67	1.67	79.31	79.31	0.98	0.98
The Citadel	SC	0.32	0.32	27.59	27.59	-0.14	-0.14
Wofford	SC	0.29	0.29	60.00	60.00	0.06	0.06
Western Carolina	SC	0.26	0.26	36.67	36.67	-0.07	-0.07
USC Upstate	ASun	0.23	0.23	10.71	10.71	-0.18	-0.18
Furman	SC	0.23	0.23	67.74	67.74	0.08	0.08
Elon	CAA	0.19	0.19	40.00	40.00	-0.04	-0.04
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.18	0.18	26.67	26.67	-0.08	-0.08
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.17	0.17	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Mercer	SC	0.17	0.17	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.16	0.16	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
Harvard	Ivy	0.16	0.16	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Yale	Ivy	0.15	0.15	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Charlotte	CUSA	0.15	0.15	17.86	17.86	-0.10	-0.10
Tennessee	SEC	0.15	0.15	75.76	75.76	0.08	0.08
Auburn	SEC	0.15	0.15	78.12	78.12	0.08	0.08
College of Charleston	CAA	0.15	0.15	77.42	77.42	0.08	0.08
William & Mary	CAA	0.15	0.15	58.62	58.62	0.03	0.03
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.14	0.14	71.88	71.88	0.06	0.06
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.14	0.14	30.00	30.00	-0.06	-0.06
East Carolina	Amer	0.14	0.14	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.14	0.14	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.14	0.14	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
San Francisco	WCC	0.13	0.13	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.13	0.13	29.03	29.03	-0.06	-0.06
Brown	Ivy	0.13	0.13	38.46	38.46	-0.03	-0.03
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.13	0.13	23.08	23.08	-0.07	-0.07
Penn	Ivy	0.13	0.13	74.19	74.19	0.06	0.06
Princeton	Ivy	0.13	0.13	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.12	0.12	61.76	61.76	0.03	0.03
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.12	0.12	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.11	0.11	25.81	25.81	-0.05	-0.05
Chattanooga	SC	0.11	0.11	25.81	25.81	-0.05	-0.05
Samford	SC	0.11	0.11	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.11	0.11	60.71	60.71	0.02	0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.11	0.11	68.75	68.75	0.04	0.04
Chicago St.	WAC	0.11	0.11	3.33	3.33	-0.10	-0.10
Wake Forest	ACC	0.11	0.11	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.11	0.11	83.33	83.33	0.07	0.07
Ohio St.	B10	0.11	0.11	75.00	75.00	0.05	0.05
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.09	0.09	25.00	25.00	-0.05	-0.05
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.09	0.09	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Davidson	A10	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
VCU	A10	0.09	0.09	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.09	0.09	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.09	0.09	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Maryland	B10	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.08	0.08	84.85	84.85	0.06	0.06
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Austin Peay	OVC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Colorado	P12	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Nevada	MWC	0.08	0.08	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
UC Davis	BW	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
UMKC	WAC	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
Utah Valley	WAC	0.08	0.08	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Colgate	Pat	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Niagara	MAAC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
American	Pat	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
Bowling Green	MAC	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Bryant	NEC	0.06	0.06	9.68	9.68	-0.05	-0.05
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.06	0.06	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Louis	A10	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Wagner	NEC	0.06	0.06	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Navy	Pat	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.06	0.06	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
UCF	Amer	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Louisville	ACC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.06	0.06	12.50	12.50	-0.04	-0.04
Lamar	Slnd	0.06	0.06	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	8.00	8.00	-0.05	-0.05
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.06	0.06	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.05	24.24	24.24	-0.03	-0.03
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
California	P12	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Georgia St.	SB	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Houston	Amer	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.04	-0.04
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.05	87.88	87.88	0.04	0.04
Monmouth	MAAC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Oregon	P12	0.05	0.05	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Rutgers	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Utah	P12	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Seattle	WAC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Albany	AE	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Army	Pat	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Connecticut	Amer	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Maine	AE	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Villanova	BE	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Binghamton	AE	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Lafayette	Pat	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Syracuse	ACC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
UMass Lowell	AE	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Lehigh	Pat	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
LSU	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	32.00	32.00	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
New Orleans	Slnd	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.03	0.03	30.77	30.77	-0.01	-0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Idaho St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Kansas	B12	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Notre Dame	ACC	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Pacific	WCC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Purdue	B10	0.03	0.03	82.35	82.35	0.02	0.02
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
UCLA	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
UNLV	MWC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
USC	P12	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.03	0.03	93.94	93.94	0.02	0.02
Washington	P12	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Xavier	BE	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Boise St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Little Rock	SB	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
UC Riverside	BW	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01