live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Longwood

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:343.0
Current RPI:343
Expected SOS:295
Current SOS:295
Current Record:4-24
Expected Record:4-24
Current Conf Record:3-16
Expected Conf Record:3-16
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-12
Current OOC Record:1-8
Expected OOC Record:1-8
Expected OOC RPI:340
Expected OOC SOS:270



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
4-24343.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Longwood.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Maine (322.0)AEH58-80L0%0.0
11-15Stephen F. Austin (202.0)SlndA66-60L0%0.0
11-23St. Francis PA (258.0)NECA87-72L0%0.0
11-28Dartmouth (305.0)IvyH86-80W100%0.0
12-3James Madison (255.0)CAAH59-71L0%0.0
12-9Creighton (26.0)BEA113-58L0%0.0
12-12George Mason (103.0)A10A97-60L0%0.0
12-19Ball St. (169.0)MACA61-45L0%0.0
12-21Texas Tech (124.0)B12A91-60L0%0.0
12-29Campbell (246.0)BSthH79-77W100%0.0
12-31High Point (236.0)BSthA55-60W100%0.0
1-4Presbyterian (347.0)BSthH79-76W100%0.0
1-7Winthrop (70.0)BSthA83-65L0%0.0
1-11UNC Asheville (73.0)BSthA89-68L0%0.0
1-14Gardner Webb (186.0)BSthH79-85L0%0.0
1-19Radford (227.0)BSthH60-72L0%0.0
1-21Charleston Southern (295.0)BSthA76-61L0%0.0
1-26Liberty (172.0)BSthH62-93L0%0.0
1-28Presbyterian (347.0)BSthA71-62L0%0.0
2-1High Point (236.0)BSthH68-92L0%0.0
2-4Gardner Webb (186.0)BSthA90-64L0%0.0
2-9Campbell (246.0)BSthA83-79L0%0.0
2-11UNC Asheville (73.0)BSthH69-91L0%0.0
2-15Winthrop (70.0)BSthH63-83L0%0.0
2-18Radford (227.0)BSthA79-72L0%0.0
2-23Liberty (172.0)BSthA61-45L0%0.0
2-25Charleston Southern (295.0)BSthH78-86L0%0.0
2-28Charleston Southern (295.0)BSthA79-74L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Longwood's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Longwood's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Longwood.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
LongwoodBSth26.5226.5212.9012.90-19.67-19.67
Charleston SouthernBSth6.396.3924.0024.00-3.32-3.32
CampbellBSth4.864.8644.8344.83-0.50-0.50
WinthropBSth4.834.8378.5778.572.762.76
Gardner WebbBSth4.744.7450.0050.000.000.00
RadfordBSth4.734.7335.7135.71-1.35-1.35
UNC AshevilleBSth4.674.6767.8667.861.671.67
LibertyBSth4.674.6751.8551.850.170.17
High PointBSth4.664.6642.3142.31-0.72-0.72
PresbyterianBSth4.664.667.697.69-3.95-3.95
MaineAE1.821.8216.6716.67-1.21-1.21
DartmouthIvy1.811.8126.9226.92-0.84-0.84
George MasonA101.811.8158.0658.060.290.29
James MadisonCAA1.811.8125.8125.81-0.88-0.88
Ball St.MAC1.791.7961.2961.290.400.40
CreightonBE1.791.7971.8871.880.780.78
St. Francis PANEC1.791.7946.6746.67-0.12-0.12
Stephen F. AustinSlnd1.791.7950.0050.000.000.00
Texas TechB121.791.7954.8454.840.170.17
VMISC0.340.3414.2914.29-0.24-0.24
FurmanSC0.300.3063.3363.330.080.08
USC UpstateASun0.280.2846.4346.43-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.250.2570.9770.970.100.10
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.220.2236.0036.00-0.06-0.06
GeorgiaSEC0.210.2156.2556.250.030.03
VCUA100.200.2076.4776.470.110.11
Virginia TechACC0.190.1968.7568.750.070.07
William & MaryCAA0.180.1851.7251.720.010.01
ElonCAA0.170.1753.3353.330.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.170.1784.3884.380.120.12
Florida St.ACC0.160.1675.7675.760.080.08
New HampshireAE0.150.1558.6258.620.030.03
DrexelCAA0.150.1525.8125.81-0.07-0.07
Saint LouisA100.140.1436.3636.36-0.04-0.04
AkronMAC0.140.1475.7675.760.070.07
PrincetonIvy0.130.1378.5778.570.070.07
AlabamaSEC0.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.120.1223.3323.33-0.07-0.07
LamarSlnd0.120.1251.7251.720.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.120.1244.8344.83-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.120.1230.0030.00-0.05-0.05
LIU BrooklynNEC0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
BryantNEC0.120.1235.4835.48-0.03-0.03
VermontAE0.120.1284.8584.850.080.08
UMass LowellAE0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.120.1242.8642.86-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.120.1227.5927.59-0.05-0.05
Eastern MichiganMAC0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.120.1287.5087.500.090.09
Kansas St.B120.120.1260.6160.610.020.02
West VirginiaB120.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.110.1155.8855.880.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.110.1161.2961.290.030.03
BuffaloMAC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
RichmondA100.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
Western MichiganMAC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
BrownIvy0.090.0939.2939.29-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.090.0938.4638.46-0.02-0.02
PennIvy0.090.0946.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.090.0960.7160.710.020.02
HartfordAE0.090.0928.1228.12-0.04-0.04
HoustonAmer0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.090.0932.0032.00-0.03-0.03
DaytonA100.090.0976.6776.670.050.05
MercerSC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
NebraskaB100.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.090.0931.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.090.0920.6920.69-0.05-0.05
Stony BrookAE0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
WagnerNEC0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
UMBCAE0.090.0957.1457.140.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
TexasB120.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
TowsonCAA0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
MarquetteBE0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
VillanovaBE0.080.0891.1891.180.070.07
XavierBE0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
CornellIvy0.070.0725.0025.00-0.03-0.03
HarvardIvy0.070.0761.5461.540.020.02
YaleIvy0.070.0760.7160.710.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.060.0662.0762.070.020.02
ClemsonACC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0655.8855.880.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
IndianaB100.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0621.8821.88-0.03-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0636.0036.00-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
IllinoisB100.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
Ohio St.B100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
PittsburghACC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
SMUAmer0.060.0688.2488.240.050.05
Wake ForestACC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0637.0437.04-0.02-0.02
AlbanyAE0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
ColgatePat0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0610.0010.00-0.05-0.05
DuquesneA100.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
BaylorB120.060.0677.4277.420.030.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
HofstraCAA0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.060.0661.7661.760.010.01
MassachusettsA100.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
TCUB120.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
ToledoMAC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
ButlerBE0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
DePaulBE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
St. John'sBE0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
MaristMAAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
KentuckySEC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
TulsaAmer0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UtahP120.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
AmericanPat0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
DukeACC0.030.0377.1477.140.020.02
Holy CrossPat0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
LehighPat0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
NJITASun0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
LSUSEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Penn St.B100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01