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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Columbia

Conference:Ivy
Expected RPI:262.0
Current RPI:262
Expected SOS:267
Current SOS:267
Current Record:10-16
Expected Record:10-16
Current Conf Record:5-9
Expected Conf Record:5-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-6
Current OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:244
Expected OOC SOS:302



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-16262.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Columbia.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Stony Brook (176.0)AEA66-73W100%0.0
11-14Saint Joseph's (197.0)A10A85-65L0%0.0
11-21Quinnipiac (272.0)MAACA78-86W100%0.0
11-23Army (266.0)PatH83-88L0%0.0
11-26Colgate (294.0)PatH81-78W100%0.0
11-29Hofstra (196.0)CAAH86-88L0%0.0
12-1Seton Hall (43.0)BEA95-71L0%0.0
12-9Navy (208.0)PatA69-54L0%0.0
12-28Miami FL (41.0)ACCA78-67L0%0.0
12-30Albany (129.0)AEH67-70L0%0.0
1-2Maine (322.0)AEA73-98W100%0.0
1-7Howard (337.0)MEACH66-48W100%0.0
1-14Cornell (270.0)IvyA75-79W100%0.0
1-21Cornell (270.0)IvyH62-67L0%0.0
1-27Dartmouth (305.0)IvyH66-54W100%0.0
1-28Harvard (143.0)IvyH65-62W100%0.0
2-3Yale (128.0)IvyH78-87L0%0.0
2-4Brown (284.0)IvyH83-78W100%0.0
2-10Penn (203.0)IvyA70-62L0%0.0
2-11Princeton (47.0)IvyA61-59L0%0.0
2-17Harvard (143.0)IvyA78-72L0%0.0
2-18Dartmouth (305.0)IvyA80-79L0%0.0
2-24Princeton (47.0)IvyH45-64L0%0.0
2-25Penn (203.0)IvyH70-67W100%0.0
3-3Brown (284.0)IvyA88-68L0%0.0
3-4Yale (128.0)IvyA75-71L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Columbia's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Columbia's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Columbia.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ColumbiaIvy26.3426.3438.9838.98-5.80-5.80
YaleIvy4.864.8657.6957.690.750.75
PrincetonIvy4.854.8576.9276.922.612.61
PennIvy4.854.8546.1546.15-0.37-0.37
BrownIvy4.814.8138.4638.46-1.11-1.11
HarvardIvy4.774.7762.5062.501.191.19
CornellIvy4.754.7523.0823.08-2.56-2.56
DartmouthIvy4.714.7124.0024.00-2.45-2.45
AlbanyAE2.322.3259.3859.380.430.43
MaineAE2.212.2120.0020.00-1.33-1.33
Stony BrookAE2.172.1760.0060.000.430.43
ColgatePat2.142.1430.0030.00-0.86-0.86
NavyPat2.122.1246.6746.67-0.14-0.14
Saint Joseph'sA102.062.0633.3333.33-0.69-0.69
QuinnipiacMAAC2.052.0533.3333.33-0.68-0.68
ArmyPat2.052.0536.6736.67-0.55-0.55
HowardMEAC2.002.0025.8125.81-0.97-0.97
Miami FLACC1.991.9964.5264.520.580.58
HofstraCAA1.951.9543.3343.33-0.26-0.26
Seton HallBE1.951.9564.5264.520.570.57
VermontAE0.520.5284.8584.850.360.36
LafayettePat0.420.4227.5927.59-0.19-0.19
HartfordAE0.410.4128.1228.12-0.18-0.18
LehighPat0.390.3961.2961.290.090.09
Holy CrossPat0.380.3846.8846.88-0.02-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.340.3431.0331.03-0.13-0.13
BucknellPat0.320.3276.4776.470.170.17
BryantNEC0.310.3135.4835.48-0.09-0.09
Central ConnecticutNEC0.270.2720.6920.69-0.16-0.16
NortheasternCAA0.270.2748.3948.39-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.250.2558.6258.620.040.04
UMass LowellAE0.250.2533.3333.33-0.08-0.08
AmericanPat0.250.2526.6726.67-0.12-0.12
FairfieldMAAC0.230.2353.3353.330.020.02
MaristMAAC0.230.2325.0025.00-0.12-0.12
MonmouthMAAC0.230.2381.8281.820.150.15
Loyola MDPat0.220.2246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.220.2254.8454.840.020.02
UMBCAE0.210.2157.1457.140.030.03
Boston CollegeACC0.210.2128.1228.12-0.09-0.09
Rhode IslandA100.200.2072.7372.730.090.09
DrexelCAA0.190.1925.8125.81-0.09-0.09
DelawareCAA0.190.1935.4835.48-0.06-0.06
SienaMAAC0.190.1950.0050.000.000.00
VillanovaBE0.190.1991.1891.180.160.16
TempleAmer0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
MassachusettsA100.170.1745.4545.45-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.170.1757.5857.580.030.03
NiagaraMAAC0.160.1630.3030.30-0.06-0.06
ProvidenceBE0.160.1662.5062.500.040.04
SyracuseACC0.160.1656.2556.250.020.02
HoustonAmer0.140.1467.7467.740.050.05
FordhamA100.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
StanfordP120.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
NJITASun0.130.1331.0331.03-0.05-0.05
HamptonMEAC0.130.1342.8642.86-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.130.1376.4776.470.070.07
St. Francis NYNEC0.130.1310.0010.00-0.10-0.10
Morgan St.MEAC0.130.1344.8344.83-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
MarquetteBE0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.100.1014.2914.29-0.07-0.07
Old DominionCUSA0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
George MasonA100.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
HawaiiBW0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
CincinnatiAmer0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
College of CharlestonCAA0.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
ManhattanMAAC0.090.0931.2531.25-0.03-0.03
TowsonCAA0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
DukeACC0.090.0977.1477.140.050.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
GeorgetownBE0.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0767.8667.860.030.03
BYUWCC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
LibertyBSth0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.070.0758.8258.820.010.01
UCFAmer0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
USCP120.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
WashingtonP120.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
WyomingMWC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
DuquesneA100.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
ElonCAA0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
IonaMAAC0.060.0664.7164.710.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.060.0628.1228.12-0.03-0.03
RiderMAAC0.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0684.3884.380.040.04
William & MaryCAA0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.060.0628.5728.57-0.03-0.03
MarylandB100.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Notre DameACC0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
Penn St.B100.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
CreightonBE0.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
DePaulBE0.060.0628.1228.12-0.03-0.03
FloridaSEC0.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
Florida St.ACC0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.063.333.33-0.06-0.06
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0673.3373.330.030.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.060.0661.7661.760.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
CampbellBSth0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.02
DavidsonA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
DaytonA100.030.0376.6776.670.020.02
FurmanSC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0396.9796.970.030.03
High PointBSth0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
MississippiSEC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
OregonP120.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
RichmondA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
IowaB100.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Iowa St.B120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
IUPUISum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.020.02
MichiganB100.030.0368.5768.570.010.01
North FloridaASun0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
SMUAmer0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02