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Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


Columbia

Conference:Ivy
Expected RPI:252.2
Current RPI:258
Expected SOS:282
Current SOS:295
Current Record:3-4
Expected Record:11-15
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:6-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-5
Current OOC Record:3-4
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:243
Expected OOC SOS:309



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-7109.00.01%
18-8111.70.03%
17-9138.30.25%
16-10155.91.01%
15-11174.52.97%
14-12195.26.61%
13-13215.811.72%
12-14236.118.18%
11-15256.319.98%
10-16274.318.30%
9-17290.411.85%
8-18304.95.99%
7-19315.52.26%
6-20326.00.73%
5-21333.30.09%
4-22335.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Columbia.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Stony Brook (275.0)AEA66-73W100%0.0
11-14Saint Joseph's (127.9)A10A85-65L0%0.0
11-21Quinnipiac (255.0)MAACA78-86W100%0.0
11-23Army (190.2)PatH83-88L0%0.0
11-26Colgate (289.9)PatH81-78W100%0.0
11-29Hofstra (225.8)CAAH86-88L0%0.0
12-1Seton Hall (75.4)BEA95-71L0%0.0
12-9Navy (264.2)PatA0-047%-0.9
12-28Miami FL (46.9)ACCA0-03%-22.7
12-30Albany (147.3)AEH0-046%-1.3
1-2Maine (313.9)AEA0-066%4.9
1-7Howard (263.6)MEACH0-069%5.9
1-14Cornell (264.7)IvyA0-048%-0.5
1-21Cornell (264.7)IvyH0-068%5.8
1-27Dartmouth (319.5)IvyH0-077%9.0
1-28Harvard (205.8)IvyH0-046%-1.3
2-3Yale (108.7)IvyH0-033%-5.3
2-4Brown (248.0)IvyH0-062%3.6
2-10Penn (143.1)IvyA0-020%-10.2
2-11Princeton (96.4)IvyA0-014%-12.9
2-17Harvard (205.8)IvyA0-026%-7.5
2-18Dartmouth (319.5)IvyA0-059%2.7
2-24Princeton (96.4)IvyH0-029%-6.6
2-25Penn (143.1)IvyH0-037%-3.9
3-3Brown (248.0)IvyA0-041%-2.7
3-4Yale (108.7)IvyA0-017%-11.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Columbia's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Columbia's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Columbia.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ColumbiaIvy28.4426.4045.9543.93-2.31-3.21
BrownIvy0.004.8555.5646.850.00-0.31
PennIvy0.004.8233.3355.37-0.000.52
CornellIvy0.454.7828.5729.02-0.19-2.01
DartmouthIvy0.004.750.0019.65-0.00-2.88
PrincetonIvy0.004.7425.0062.01-0.001.14
YaleIvy0.004.7442.8662.43-0.001.18
HarvardIvy0.004.7420.0045.30-0.00-0.45
AlbanyAE0.002.3042.8661.34-0.000.52
MaineAE0.002.2314.2923.80-0.00-1.17
ColgatePat7.142.1614.2930.73-5.10-0.83
Stony BrookAE7.142.1533.3339.51-2.38-0.45
NavyPat0.002.1225.0036.82-0.00-0.56
Saint Joseph'sA107.142.0733.3343.41-2.38-0.27
QuinnipiacMAAC7.652.0633.3338.22-2.55-0.48
ArmyPat7.142.0533.3348.31-2.38-0.07
HowardMEAC0.002.0016.6744.82-0.00-0.21
Miami FLACC0.001.9975.0065.030.000.60
HofstraCAA7.141.9657.1441.261.02-0.34
Seton HallBE7.651.9666.6752.992.550.12
VermontAE0.960.4862.5071.320.240.20
LafayettePat0.000.4533.3333.36-0.00-0.15
HartfordAE0.000.4022.2226.33-0.00-0.19
LehighPat0.000.3842.8666.67-0.000.13
Holy CrossPat0.000.3737.5047.37-0.00-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.000.3350.0043.560.00-0.04
BryantNEC0.000.3225.0047.82-0.00-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.510.2833.3332.92-0.17-0.09
NortheasternCAA0.510.2850.0044.400.00-0.03
BucknellPat0.000.2766.6766.340.000.09
New HampshireAE0.000.2757.1458.840.000.05
UMass LowellAE0.000.2722.2238.49-0.00-0.06
MonmouthMAAC0.510.2475.0070.620.260.10
FairfieldMAAC0.510.2471.4359.880.220.05
MaristMAAC0.510.2444.4434.65-0.06-0.07
Loyola MDPat0.510.2342.8645.94-0.07-0.02
AmericanPat0.000.2314.2931.35-0.00-0.09
Boston UniversityPat0.000.2342.8654.90-0.000.02
UMBCAE0.000.2380.0054.540.000.02
Boston CollegeACC0.510.2157.1429.790.07-0.09
Rhode IslandA100.000.2062.5069.130.000.08
DrexelCAA0.000.2050.0040.600.00-0.04
SienaMAAC0.000.2037.5052.01-0.000.01
TempleAmer0.510.1875.0064.920.260.05
George WashingtonA100.000.1755.5641.690.00-0.03
DelawareCAA0.000.1750.0041.990.00-0.03
VillanovaBE0.510.17100.0084.840.510.12
ProvidenceBE0.000.1675.0056.590.000.02
HoustonAmer0.000.1585.7178.280.000.08
FordhamA100.000.1450.0041.310.00-0.02
MassachusettsA100.000.1471.4358.600.000.02
StanfordP120.510.1466.6758.060.170.02
HamptonMEAC0.510.1414.2942.67-0.36-0.02
VCUA100.000.1475.0073.060.000.06
La SalleA100.000.1466.6755.540.000.02
SyracuseACC0.450.1471.4366.700.190.05
NJITASun0.450.1350.0049.780.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.510.1314.2926.74-0.36-0.06
NiagaraMAAC0.000.1325.0035.09-0.00-0.04
St. BonaventureA100.000.1371.4370.390.000.05
CaliforniaP120.000.1185.7162.220.000.03
HawaiiBW0.000.1150.0050.450.000.00
PittsburghACC0.000.1175.0049.180.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.450.1137.5033.74-0.11-0.03
VirginiaACC0.000.1187.5078.510.000.06
Old DominionCUSA0.000.1071.4368.050.000.04
George MasonA100.000.1062.5046.900.00-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.1071.4355.820.000.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.1020.0021.80-0.00-0.06
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.1014.2938.26-0.00-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.1087.5082.360.000.07
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1066.6761.550.000.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.1055.5647.890.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.000.1075.0066.410.000.03
RutgersB100.000.1085.7145.370.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.510.1042.8653.19-0.070.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.1037.5044.39-0.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.1088.8978.400.000.05
ManhattanMAAC0.450.1025.0034.40-0.22-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.510.1075.0051.040.260.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.1085.7162.990.000.02
BYUWCC0.000.0762.5066.900.000.03
Cal PolyBW0.000.0742.8641.51-0.00-0.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0733.3348.07-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.000.0757.1452.370.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0742.8660.54-0.000.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0722.2241.71-0.00-0.01
TroySB0.000.0742.8636.19-0.00-0.02
UCFAmer0.000.0785.7176.240.000.04
USCP120.000.07100.0076.680.000.04
WyomingMWC0.000.0766.6754.050.000.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.070.0022.58-0.00-0.04
MarylandB100.510.0787.5059.330.380.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.070.0034.47-0.00-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.070.0020.75-0.00-0.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0757.1471.520.000.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.450.070.0017.13-0.45-0.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC1.020.0716.6739.78-0.68-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.070.0027.12-0.00-0.03
ButlerBE0.000.06100.0074.440.000.03
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0076.630.000.03
DePaulBE0.000.0666.6735.430.00-0.02
DuquesneA100.000.0644.4442.03-0.00-0.01
ElonCAA0.000.0671.4359.470.000.01
FloridaSEC0.510.0687.5075.240.380.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.450.0616.6730.34-0.30-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.000.0687.5065.250.000.02
IonaMAAC0.000.0657.1464.030.000.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.0612.5030.68-0.00-0.02
Notre DameACC0.000.06100.0077.380.000.04
Penn St.B100.450.0666.6746.420.15-0.00
RiderMAAC0.000.0650.0048.810.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0657.1450.420.000.00
St. John'sBE0.000.0637.5037.03-0.00-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0683.3377.100.000.03
William & MaryCAA0.000.0633.3346.01-0.00-0.01
XavierBE0.000.0687.5070.890.000.03
Air ForceMWC0.000.0357.1448.500.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.510.0375.0066.370.260.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0314.2932.19-0.00-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.510.0312.5030.39-0.38-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0312.5037.99-0.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.000.0333.3356.24-0.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0333.3352.11-0.000.00
High PointBSth0.000.0342.8646.48-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.000.0337.5051.64-0.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0350.0046.410.00-0.00
MichiganB100.000.0375.0066.460.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.030.0035.95-0.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0357.1458.940.000.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0387.5068.610.000.01
OregonP120.510.0375.0072.250.260.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.030.0018.64-0.00-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0333.3339.94-0.00-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0371.4356.260.000.00
BradleyMVC0.450.0342.8627.96-0.06-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0333.3352.21-0.000.00
CampbellBSth0.450.0342.8639.20-0.06-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0371.4354.860.000.00
DavidsonA100.000.0371.4363.170.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0371.4373.490.000.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.0357.1436.010.00-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.510.03100.0091.920.510.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0342.8658.58-0.000.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0360.0067.760.000.01
Indiana St.MVC0.510.0342.8650.11-0.070.00
IowaB100.510.0337.5037.74-0.13-0.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0371.4368.070.000.01
KentuckySEC0.000.0387.5082.800.000.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.0387.5075.590.000.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.510.0371.4358.920.220.01
MississippiSEC0.510.0375.0048.500.26-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.0387.5081.960.000.02
North FloridaASun0.000.0312.5034.79-0.00-0.01
RichmondA100.000.0350.0048.210.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0328.5723.78-0.00-0.02
SMUAmer0.000.0366.6766.860.000.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.03100.0078.850.000.02
South DakotaSum0.450.0350.0046.020.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.450.0350.0030.350.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.510.0337.5047.91-0.13-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.450.0344.4441.30-0.05-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0375.0054.490.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0328.5723.12-0.00-0.02
WoffordSC0.000.030.0034.81-0.00-0.01