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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Columbia

Conference:Ivy
Expected RPI:132.0
Current RPI:132
Expected SOS:195
Current SOS:195
Current Record:19-10
Expected Record:19-10
Current Conf Record:10-4
Expected Conf Record:10-4
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-1
Current OOC Record:9-6
Expected OOC Record:9-6
Expected OOC RPI:164
Expected OOC SOS:234



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-10132.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Columbia.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Kansas St. (92.0)B12A81-71L0%0.0
11-20Northwestern (115.0)B10A83-80L0%0.0
11-22Lehigh (168.0)PatH88-61W100%0.0
11-24Wofford (199.0)SCH70-59W100%0.0
11-27Fairfield (142.0)MAACA82-81L0%0.0
11-28Longwood (323.0)BSthH69-70L0%0.0
12-2Bucknell (183.0)PatA61-72W100%0.0
12-4Saint Joseph's (22.0)A10H78-80L0%0.0
12-6Delaware (274.0)CAAH82-69W100%0.0
12-9Manhattan (229.0)MAACA71-72W100%0.0
12-12NJIT (207.0)ASunH65-56W100%0.0
12-14Robert Morris (291.0)NECH78-71W100%0.0
12-28Howard (328.0)MEACH72-59W100%0.0
1-2Stony Brook (59.0)AEA69-60L0%0.0
1-6Maryland Eastern Shore (307.0)MEACH81-75W100%0.0
1-16Cornell (244.0)IvyH74-70W100%0.0
1-23Cornell (244.0)IvyA68-79W100%0.0
1-29Dartmouth (284.0)IvyA60-77W100%0.0
1-30Harvard (193.0)IvyA54-55W100%0.0
2-5Yale (44.0)IvyA86-72L0%0.0
2-6Brown (312.0)IvyA73-77W100%0.0
2-12Penn (283.0)IvyH63-53W100%0.0
2-13Princeton (39.0)IvyH83-88L0%0.0
2-19Harvard (193.0)IvyH90-76W100%0.0
2-20Dartmouth (284.0)IvyH73-54W100%0.0
2-26Princeton (39.0)IvyA88-83L0%0.0
2-27Penn (283.0)IvyA65-93W100%0.0
3-4Brown (312.0)IvyH66-63W100%0.0
3-5Yale (44.0)IvyH55-71L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Columbia's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Columbia's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Columbia.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ColumbiaIvy26.3126.3164.8964.897.837.83
PrincetonIvy4.294.2976.0076.002.232.23
YaleIvy4.294.2976.0076.002.232.23
HarvardIvy4.274.2746.1546.15-0.33-0.33
DartmouthIvy4.274.2736.0036.00-1.19-1.19
PennIvy4.264.2640.0040.00-0.85-0.85
CornellIvy4.244.2436.0036.00-1.19-1.19
BrownIvy4.214.2128.0028.00-1.85-1.85
FairfieldMAAC1.991.9958.0658.060.320.32
BucknellPat1.931.9357.1457.140.280.28
HowardMEAC1.911.9134.4834.48-0.59-0.59
LehighPat1.901.9053.3353.330.130.13
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC1.891.8930.0030.00-0.76-0.76
Saint Joseph'sA101.881.8878.7978.791.081.08
Robert MorrisNEC1.851.8532.2632.26-0.65-0.65
Stony BrookAE1.841.8479.3179.311.081.08
NJITASun1.821.8255.1755.170.190.19
WoffordSC1.811.8144.8344.83-0.19-0.19
ManhattanMAAC1.811.8143.3343.33-0.24-0.24
LongwoodBSth1.791.7920.6920.69-1.05-1.05
Kansas St.B121.751.7550.0050.000.000.00
NorthwesternB101.751.7561.2961.290.400.40
DelawareCAA1.721.7224.1424.14-0.89-0.89
LafayettePat0.340.3420.0020.00-0.20-0.20
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.330.3346.6746.67-0.02-0.02
BryantNEC0.310.3123.3323.33-0.16-0.16
Holy CrossPat0.300.3042.4242.42-0.05-0.05
MaristMAAC0.290.2923.3323.33-0.16-0.16
VermontAE0.280.2860.6160.610.060.06
CanisiusMAAC0.270.2742.4242.42-0.04-0.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.250.2513.7913.79-0.18-0.18
SienaMAAC0.230.2363.6463.640.060.06
AlbanyAE0.210.2174.1974.190.100.10
HartfordAE0.210.2128.1228.12-0.09-0.09
MaineAE0.210.2126.6726.67-0.10-0.10
NavyPat0.210.2156.2556.250.030.03
Boston UniversityPat0.210.2154.8454.840.020.02
MonmouthMAAC0.200.2079.4179.410.120.12
UMBCAE0.200.2021.8821.88-0.11-0.11
AmericanPat0.200.2038.7138.71-0.05-0.05
NiagaraMAAC0.200.2021.8821.88-0.11-0.11
Loyola MDPat0.200.2030.0030.00-0.08-0.08
BinghamtonAE0.190.1926.6726.67-0.09-0.09
New HampshireAE0.190.1958.6258.620.030.03
ColgatePat0.180.1841.3841.38-0.03-0.03
UMass LowellAE0.180.1835.7135.71-0.05-0.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.180.1816.6716.67-0.12-0.12
RiderMAAC0.170.1739.3939.39-0.04-0.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.170.1740.0040.00-0.03-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.150.1569.7069.700.060.06
HamptonMEAC0.150.1566.6766.670.050.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.150.1548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.150.1553.1253.120.010.01
DrexelCAA0.150.1520.0020.00-0.09-0.09
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.150.1554.8454.840.010.01
George MasonA100.150.1534.3834.38-0.05-0.05
MarylandB100.150.1575.0075.000.070.07
MassachusettsA100.140.1443.7543.75-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.140.1426.6726.67-0.07-0.07
KansasB120.140.1487.8887.880.110.11
South Carolina St.MEAC0.140.1454.8454.840.010.01
IonaMAAC0.140.1468.7568.750.050.05
St. Francis PANEC0.140.1441.3841.38-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.130.1383.3383.330.090.09
LibertyBSth0.120.1234.4834.48-0.04-0.04
LipscombASun0.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
VillanovaBE0.120.1285.2985.290.080.08
LIU BrooklynNEC0.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
ArmyPat0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
La SalleA100.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Rhode IslandA100.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
OklahomaB120.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.110.1142.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.110.1124.1424.14-0.06-0.06
St. Francis NYNEC0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
QuinnipiacMAAC0.110.1130.0030.00-0.04-0.04
North CarolinaACC0.110.1182.3582.350.070.07
WagnerNEC0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
Oklahoma St.B120.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.090.0945.4545.45-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
SyracuseACC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
IllinoisB100.090.0944.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0921.8821.88-0.05-0.05
College of CharlestonCAA0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
High PointBSth0.090.0964.2964.290.020.02
HofstraCAA0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
PresbyterianBSth0.090.0928.5728.57-0.04-0.04
RadfordBSth0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Western CarolinaSC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.090.0962.0762.070.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.090.0934.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Penn St.B100.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
PurdueB100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
FordhamA100.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0672.4172.410.030.03
DukeACC0.060.0669.7069.700.030.03
Miami FLACC0.060.0678.1278.120.040.04
Seton HallBE0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
StanfordP120.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
USCP120.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
WashingtonP120.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
AuburnSEC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
CampbellBSth0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0622.2222.22-0.03-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0684.3884.380.040.04
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0657.6957.690.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
ElonCAA0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
FurmanSC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
MercerSC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
North FloridaASun0.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
SamfordSC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.060.0624.2424.24-0.03-0.03
The CitadelSC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
TowsonCAA0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
USC UpstateASun0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
VMISC0.060.0622.2222.22-0.03-0.03
WinthropBSth0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0622.2222.22-0.03-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
RutgersB100.060.0619.3519.35-0.03-0.03
Michigan St.B100.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
BuffaloMAC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
RichmondA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
MichiganB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0522.8622.86-0.03-0.03
NebraskaB100.050.0547.0647.06-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0562.8662.860.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
DuquesneA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
BaylorB120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Iowa St.B120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
TCUB120.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Texas TechB120.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Saint LouisA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
George WashingtonA100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
VCUA100.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
BradleyMVC0.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
HawaiiBW0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
Notre DameACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
MemphisAmer0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0383.8783.870.020.02
VirginiaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.030.033.453.45-0.03-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
DePaulBE0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
IowaB100.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
WisconsinB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
MississippiSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
DavidsonA100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00