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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Columbia

Conference:Ivy
Expected RPI:196.0
Current RPI:196
Expected SOS:126
Current SOS:126
Current Record:12-15
Expected Record:12-15
Current Conf Record:5-9
Expected Conf Record:5-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-3
Current OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:137
Expected OOC SOS:82



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-15196.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Columbia.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Stony Brook (107.0)AEA57-56L0%0.0
11-18Wagner (294.0)NECH70-56W100%0.0
11-23Lehigh (175.0)PatA44-54W100%0.0
11-25Fairleigh Dickinson (312.0)NECH57-47W100%0.0
11-29American (135.0)PatH52-43W100%0.0
12-2Loyola MD (270.0)PatH62-64L0%0.0
12-6Bucknell (136.0)PatH62-39W100%0.0
12-10Kentucky (1.0)SECA56-46L0%0.0
12-20Hofstra (174.0)CAAH82-77W100%0.0
12-22Connecticut (77.0)AmerA80-65L0%0.0
12-28Colgate (194.0)PatH69-64W100%0.0
12-30St. Francis NY (170.0)NECA72-64L0%0.0
1-6Stony Brook (107.0)AEH61-70L0%0.0
1-17Cornell (227.0)IvyA45-48W100%0.0
1-24Cornell (227.0)IvyH47-57L0%0.0
1-30Yale (64.0)IvyH59-63L0%0.0
1-31Brown (248.0)IvyH86-65W100%0.0
2-6Princeton (191.0)IvyH62-74L0%0.0
2-7Penn (254.0)IvyH83-56W100%0.0
2-13Harvard (52.0)IvyA72-68L0%0.0
2-14Dartmouth (186.0)IvyA61-49L0%0.0
2-20Brown (248.0)IvyA59-76W100%0.0
2-21Yale (64.0)IvyA50-56W100%0.0
2-27Dartmouth (186.0)IvyH71-84L0%0.0
2-28Harvard (52.0)IvyH70-80L0%0.0
3-6Penn (254.0)IvyA54-46L0%0.0
3-7Princeton (191.0)IvyA85-83L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Columbia's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Columbia's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Columbia.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ColumbiaIvy26.3526.3541.6041.60-4.43-4.43
YaleIvy4.584.5867.8667.861.641.64
PrincetonIvy4.584.5848.1548.15-0.17-0.17
CornellIvy4.544.5440.7440.74-0.84-0.84
HarvardIvy4.544.5472.0072.002.002.00
BrownIvy4.514.5140.7440.74-0.84-0.84
PennIvy4.514.5130.7730.77-1.74-1.74
DartmouthIvy4.484.4846.1546.15-0.34-0.34
Stony BrookAE3.853.8563.3363.331.031.03
AmericanPat2.282.2853.1253.120.140.14
Loyola MDPat2.212.2134.4834.48-0.69-0.69
ColgatePat2.182.1848.3948.39-0.07-0.07
LehighPat2.112.1153.5753.570.150.15
BucknellPat2.092.0958.0658.060.340.34
WagnerNEC2.072.0732.1432.14-0.74-0.74
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC2.042.0425.9325.93-0.98-0.98
St. Francis NYNEC1.981.9865.6265.620.620.62
HofstraCAA1.941.9462.5062.500.490.49
ConnecticutAmer1.911.9157.5857.580.290.29
KentuckySEC1.851.85100.00100.001.851.85
LafayettePat0.610.6161.2961.290.140.14
Holy CrossPat0.490.4944.8344.83-0.05-0.05
BryantNEC0.470.4751.6151.610.020.02
VermontAE0.400.4056.6756.670.050.05
Boston UniversityPat0.390.3941.3841.38-0.07-0.07
NavyPat0.390.3938.7138.71-0.09-0.09
Sacred HeartNEC0.340.3445.1645.16-0.03-0.03
BinghamtonAE0.330.3316.6716.67-0.22-0.22
LIU BrooklynNEC0.330.3340.0040.00-0.07-0.07
ArmyPat0.330.3348.2848.28-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.310.3139.2939.29-0.07-0.07
Central ConnecticutNEC0.310.3116.1316.13-0.21-0.21
AlbanyAE0.290.2975.0075.000.150.15
New HampshireAE0.270.2758.6258.620.050.05
St. Francis PANEC0.270.2750.0050.000.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.270.2750.0050.000.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.250.2557.5857.580.040.04
HartfordAE0.240.2444.8344.83-0.03-0.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.220.2247.0647.06-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.210.2110.0010.00-0.17-0.17
ProvidenceBE0.210.2166.6766.670.070.07
RiderMAAC0.190.1965.6265.620.060.06
La SalleA100.180.1851.5251.520.010.01
UMBCAE0.180.1813.3313.33-0.13-0.13
CincinnatiAmer0.170.1768.7568.750.060.06
FloridaSEC0.170.1748.4848.48-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.160.1652.9452.940.010.01
NJITind0.160.1656.0056.000.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.160.1658.0658.060.030.03
CanisiusMAAC0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
TempleAmer0.150.1569.7069.700.060.06
Saint Joseph'sA100.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Arizona St.P120.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
George MasonA100.130.1326.6726.67-0.06-0.06
VillanovaBE0.130.1394.1294.120.110.11
MonmouthMAAC0.130.1354.5554.550.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.120.1267.6567.650.040.04
SienaMAAC0.120.1235.4835.48-0.04-0.04
SyracuseACC0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
DrexelCAA0.120.1237.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.110.1165.6265.620.040.04
South FloridaAmer0.110.1125.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.100.1025.9325.93-0.05-0.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
HoustonAmer0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.100.1021.8821.88-0.05-0.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.090.0940.6240.62-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
LibertyBSth0.090.0914.2914.29-0.07-0.07
BuffaloMAC0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
DelawareCAA0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
TowsonCAA0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
William & MaryCAA0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.080.0827.2727.27-0.04-0.04
SMUAmer0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
TulsaAmer0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
VirginiaACC0.070.0790.6290.620.060.06
IPFWSum0.070.0748.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.070.0728.1228.12-0.03-0.03
MercerSC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0621.4321.43-0.04-0.04
CaliforniaP120.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
HowardMEAC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0658.3358.330.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.060.0662.0762.070.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.060.0670.0070.000.030.03
San DiegoWCC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.060.060.000.00-0.06-0.06
UTEPCUSA0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
RutgersB100.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
WashingtonP120.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
ElonCAA0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
AuburnSEC0.050.0541.1841.18-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
TexasB120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
St. John'sBE0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
DePaulBE0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
ButlerBE0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Texas TechB120.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
MichiganB100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
DukeACC0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
KansasB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
LSUSEC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.030.0368.5768.570.010.01
StanfordP120.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
UCFAmer0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
West VirginiaB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01