Columbia

Conference:	Ivy
Expected RPI:	273.0
Current RPI:	273
Expected SOS:	290
Current SOS:	290
Current Record:	10-16
Expected Record:	10-16
Current Conf Record:	4-10
Expected Conf Record:	4-10
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	6-8
Current OOC Record:	6-6
Expected OOC Record:	6-6
Expected OOC RPI:	191
Expected OOC SOS:	251

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
10-16	273.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Columbia.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Furman (343.0)	SC	A	47-68	W	100%
11-17	Marist (262.0)	MAAC	H	62-67	L	0%
11-20	Villanova (52.0)	BE	A	57-75	W	100%
11-24	San Francisco (167.0)	WCC	A	79-59	L	0%
11-28	Long Island (179.0)	NEC	A	70-61	L	0%
12-1	Bucknell (51.0)	Pat	H	57-65	L	0%
12-9	American (278.0)	Pat	A	42-54	W	100%
12-22	Elon (174.0)	SC	H	69-70	L	0%
12-29	Manhattan (183.0)	MAAC	H	69-58	W	100%
1-2	Colgate (256.0)	Pat	H	66-59	W	100%
1-5	Army (205.0)	Pat	A	52-64	W	100%
1-8	Holy Cross (251.0)	Pat	A	78-69	L	0%
1-19	Cornell (248.0)	Ivy	A	58-67	W	100%
1-26	Cornell (248.0)	Ivy	H	63-66	L	0%
2-1	Pennsylvania (280.0)	Ivy	A	62-58	L	0%
2-2	Princeton (124.0)	Ivy	A	72-66	L	0%
2-8	Dartmouth (294.0)	Ivy	H	57-60	L	0%
2-10	Harvard (93.0)	Ivy	H	78-63	W	100%
2-15	Brown (241.0)	Ivy	A	58-55	L	0%
2-16	Yale (198.0)	Ivy	A	75-56	L	0%
2-22	Princeton (124.0)	Ivy	H	40-65	L	0%
2-23	Pennsylvania (280.0)	Ivy	H	58-41	W	100%
3-1	Yale (198.0)	Ivy	H	59-46	W	100%
3-2	Brown (241.0)	Ivy	H	58-61	L	0%
3-8	Harvard (93.0)	Ivy	A	56-51	L	0%
3-9	Dartmouth (294.0)	Ivy	A	64-58	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Columbia's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Columbia's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Columbia.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Columbia	Ivy	26.33	26.33	39.68	39.68	-5.43	-5.43
Dartmouth	Ivy	4.81	4.81	24.00	24.00	-2.50	-2.50
Cornell	Ivy	4.76	4.76	39.29	39.29	-1.02	-1.02
Yale	Ivy	4.73	4.73	40.74	40.74	-0.88	-0.88
Harvard	Ivy	4.72	4.72	68.00	68.00	1.70	1.70
Princeton	Ivy	4.72	4.72	56.00	56.00	0.57	0.57
Pennsylvania	Ivy	4.71	4.71	27.59	27.59	-2.11	-2.11
Brown	Ivy	4.66	4.66	40.00	40.00	-0.93	-0.93
Bucknell	Pat	2.45	2.45	83.87	83.87	1.66	1.66
Holy Cross	Pat	2.41	2.41	37.93	37.93	-0.58	-0.58
Army	Pat	2.40	2.40	51.72	51.72	0.08	0.08
Colgate	Pat	2.37	2.37	35.48	35.48	-0.69	-0.69
American	Pat	2.30	2.30	34.48	34.48	-0.71	-0.71
Elon	SC	2.16	2.16	62.07	62.07	0.52	0.52
Manhattan	MAAC	2.09	2.09	45.16	45.16	-0.20	-0.20
Marist	MAAC	2.08	2.08	30.00	30.00	-0.83	-0.83
Furman	SC	1.99	1.99	17.86	17.86	-1.28	-1.28
San Francisco	WCC	1.99	1.99	42.86	42.86	-0.28	-0.28
Villanova	BE	1.99	1.99	61.29	61.29	0.45	0.45
Long Island	NEC	1.95	1.95	59.38	59.38	0.37	0.37
Lafayette	Pat	0.57	0.57	54.55	54.55	0.05	0.05
Lehigh	Pat	0.40	0.40	68.97	68.97	0.15	0.15
Navy	Pat	0.34	0.34	23.33	23.33	-0.18	-0.18
New Hampshire	AE	0.27	0.27	28.57	28.57	-0.12	-0.12
Bryant	NEC	0.27	0.27	63.33	63.33	0.07	0.07
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.26	0.26	58.06	58.06	0.04	0.04
Binghamton	AE	0.26	0.26	6.90	6.90	-0.22	-0.22
Maine	AE	0.24	0.24	34.48	34.48	-0.07	-0.07
Fordham	A10	0.23	0.23	22.58	22.58	-0.13	-0.13
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.23	0.23	31.03	31.03	-0.09	-0.09
Niagara	MAAC	0.22	0.22	59.38	59.38	0.04	0.04
Wagner	NEC	0.22	0.22	61.29	61.29	0.05	0.05
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.22	0.22	30.00	30.00	-0.09	-0.09
Fairfield	MAAC	0.21	0.21	55.88	55.88	0.03	0.03
Vermont	AE	0.21	0.21	65.62	65.62	0.07	0.07
St. Mary's	WCC	0.20	0.20	81.25	81.25	0.13	0.13
Providence	BE	0.19	0.19	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Rider	MAAC	0.19	0.19	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.19	0.19	40.00	40.00	-0.04	-0.04
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.19	0.19	17.24	17.24	-0.12	-0.12
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.18	0.18	65.62	65.62	0.06	0.06
Boston College	ACC	0.17	0.17	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.17	0.17	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
NC Greensboro	SC	0.16	0.16	24.14	24.14	-0.08	-0.08
College of Charleston	SC	0.16	0.16	72.73	72.73	0.07	0.07
Syracuse	BE	0.16	0.16	74.29	74.29	0.08	0.08
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.15	0.15	48.00	48.00	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.15	0.15	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Siena	MAAC	0.15	0.15	25.00	25.00	-0.08	-0.08
Iona	MAAC	0.15	0.15	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.15	0.15	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Arizona St.	P12	0.14	0.14	63.64	63.64	0.04	0.04
Boston University	AE	0.14	0.14	58.62	58.62	0.02	0.02
Longwood	BSth	0.14	0.14	19.35	19.35	-0.08	-0.08
Drexel	CAA	0.13	0.13	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Appalachian St.	SC	0.13	0.13	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Samford	SC	0.13	0.13	32.26	32.26	-0.05	-0.05
Wofford	SC	0.13	0.13	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Hartford	AE	0.13	0.13	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
St. John's	BE	0.13	0.13	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Stony Brook	AE	0.13	0.13	76.67	76.67	0.07	0.07
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.13	0.13	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Penn St.	B10	0.12	0.12	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Canisius	MAAC	0.12	0.12	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
La Salle	A10	0.12	0.12	70.00	70.00	0.05	0.05
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.12	0.12	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Albany	AE	0.10	0.10	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Connecticut	BE	0.10	0.10	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Kent St.	MAC	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Notre Dame	BE	0.10	0.10	73.53	73.53	0.05	0.05
Rutgers	BE	0.10	0.10	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.10	0.10	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.10	0.10	13.79	13.79	-0.07	-0.07
Nevada	MWC	0.10	0.10	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.10	0.10	31.25	31.25	-0.04	-0.04
Davidson	SC	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Georgia Southern	SC	0.10	0.10	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
The Citadel	SC	0.10	0.10	21.43	21.43	-0.06	-0.06
Chattanooga	SC	0.10	0.10	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Presbyterian	BSth	0.10	0.10	17.24	17.24	-0.06	-0.06
Western Carolina	SC	0.10	0.10	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Duke	ACC	0.10	0.10	84.38	84.38	0.07	0.07
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.10	0.10	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Butler	A10	0.09	0.09	75.76	75.76	0.05	0.05
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.09	0.09	23.33	23.33	-0.05	-0.05
Temple	A10	0.09	0.09	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
Louisville	BE	0.09	0.09	85.29	85.29	0.06	0.06
Monmouth	NEC	0.09	0.09	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Akron	MAC	0.07	0.07	80.65	80.65	0.04	0.04
California	P12	0.07	0.07	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.07	0.07	88.24	88.24	0.05	0.05
Northeastern	CAA	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.07	0.07	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.07	0.07	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Brigham Young	WCC	0.07	0.07	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Evansville	MVC	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Florida	SEC	0.07	0.07	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Gonzaga	WCC	0.07	0.07	93.75	93.75	0.06	0.06
Iowa St.	B12	0.07	0.07	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Pepperdine	WCC	0.07	0.07	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Portland	WCC	0.07	0.07	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
San Diego	WCC	0.07	0.07	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.07	0.07	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Western Illinois	Sum	0.07	0.07	71.43	71.43	0.03	0.03
Clemson	ACC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.06	0.06	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.06	0.06	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.06	0.06	80.65	80.65	0.04	0.04
South Carolina	SEC	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Marquette	BE	0.06	0.06	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Pittsburgh	BE	0.06	0.06	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Purdue	B10	0.06	0.06	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
South Florida	BE	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.06	0.06	19.35	19.35	-0.04	-0.04
Seton Hall	BE	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.06	0.06	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Mercer	ASun	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.02	0.02
Montana	BSky	0.03	0.03	79.31	79.31	0.02	0.02
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Pacific	BW	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Stanford	P12	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Kansas	B12	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	7.14	7.14	-0.03	-0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Old Dominion	CAA	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Texas A&M	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.02	-0.02
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
George Washington	A10	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01