Columbia

Conference:	Ivy
Expected RPI:	316.0
Current RPI:	316
Expected SOS:	258
Current SOS:	258
Current Record:	7-19
Expected Record:	7-19
Current Conf Record:	5-9
Expected Conf Record:	5-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	6-7
Current OOC Record:	2-10
Expected OOC Record:	2-10
Expected OOC RPI:	307
Expected OOC SOS:	229

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
7-19	316.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Columbia.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Villanova (2.0)	BE	A	75-60	L	0%
11-14	Longwood (337.0)	BSth	A	77-87	W	100%
11-17	Penn St. (77.0)	B10	A	79-65	L	0%
11-21	Army (280.0)	Pat	A	88-78	L	0%
11-25	Colgate (185.0)	Pat	A	77-71	L	0%
11-29	Connecticut (123.0)	Amer	A	77-73	L	0%
12-2	Albany (142.0)	AE	A	86-82	L	0%
12-4	Quinnipiac (277.0)	MAAC	H	87-89	L	0%
12-7	Stony Brook (208.0)	AE	H	66-76	L	0%
12-10	Navy (200.0)	Pat	H	68-73	L	0%
12-12	Boston College (96.0)	ACC	A	81-66	L	0%
12-30	Maine (338.0)	AE	H	83-71	W	100%
1-12	Princeton (226.0)	Ivy	A	72-56	L	0%
1-13	Penn (112.0)	Ivy	A	77-71	L	0%
1-20	Cornell (248.0)	Ivy	H	88-62	W	100%
1-27	Cornell (248.0)	Ivy	A	82-81	L	0%
2-2	Harvard (117.0)	Ivy	H	83-76	W	100%
2-3	Dartmouth (334.0)	Ivy	H	77-74	W	100%
2-9	Yale (183.0)	Ivy	A	88-84	L	0%
2-10	Brown (298.0)	Ivy	A	91-88	L	0%
2-16	Penn (112.0)	Ivy	H	62-74	L	0%
2-17	Princeton (226.0)	Ivy	H	85-60	W	100%
2-23	Brown (298.0)	Ivy	H	89-82	W	100%
2-24	Yale (183.0)	Ivy	H	73-83	L	0%
3-2	Dartmouth (334.0)	Ivy	A	80-78	L	0%
3-3	Harvard (117.0)	Ivy	A	93-74	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Columbia's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Columbia's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Columbia.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Columbia	Ivy	26.32	26.32	24.51	24.51	-13.42	-13.42
Penn	Ivy	4.87	4.87	72.41	72.41	2.18	2.18
Harvard	Ivy	4.81	4.81	57.14	57.14	0.69	0.69
Cornell	Ivy	4.79	4.79	40.00	40.00	-0.96	-0.96
Dartmouth	Ivy	4.77	4.77	20.83	20.83	-2.79	-2.79
Yale	Ivy	4.77	4.77	46.43	46.43	-0.34	-0.34
Brown	Ivy	4.71	4.71	37.50	37.50	-1.18	-1.18
Princeton	Ivy	4.66	4.66	42.31	42.31	-0.72	-0.72
Albany	AE	2.25	2.25	66.67	66.67	0.75	0.75
Colgate	Pat	2.21	2.21	56.67	56.67	0.29	0.29
Stony Brook	AE	2.18	2.18	36.67	36.67	-0.58	-0.58
Maine	AE	2.18	2.18	13.79	13.79	-1.58	-1.58
Navy	Pat	2.11	2.11	60.00	60.00	0.42	0.42
Quinnipiac	MAAC	2.10	2.10	34.38	34.38	-0.66	-0.66
Boston College	ACC	2.06	2.06	54.55	54.55	0.19	0.19
Army	Pat	2.05	2.05	39.29	39.29	-0.44	-0.44
Villanova	BE	2.02	2.02	87.88	87.88	1.53	1.53
Connecticut	Amer	2.01	2.01	41.94	41.94	-0.32	-0.32
Longwood	BSth	1.99	1.99	13.79	13.79	-1.44	-1.44
Penn St.	B10	1.92	1.92	60.61	60.61	0.41	0.41
Vermont	AE	0.48	0.48	78.79	78.79	0.28	0.28
Lafayette	Pat	0.48	0.48	30.00	30.00	-0.19	-0.19
Binghamton	AE	0.35	0.35	31.03	31.03	-0.13	-0.13
Boston University	Pat	0.35	0.35	46.67	46.67	-0.02	-0.02
Holy Cross	Pat	0.35	0.35	38.71	38.71	-0.08	-0.08
UMass Lowell	AE	0.33	0.33	37.93	37.93	-0.08	-0.08
Lehigh	Pat	0.32	0.32	51.72	51.72	0.01	0.01
Loyola MD	Pat	0.30	0.30	26.67	26.67	-0.14	-0.14
Monmouth	MAAC	0.29	0.29	35.48	35.48	-0.08	-0.08
Bryant	NEC	0.27	0.27	9.68	9.68	-0.22	-0.22
New Hampshire	AE	0.26	0.26	27.59	27.59	-0.12	-0.12
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.26	0.26	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Bucknell	Pat	0.25	0.25	73.53	73.53	0.12	0.12
UMBC	AE	0.25	0.25	67.74	67.74	0.09	0.09
Hartford	AE	0.25	0.25	58.06	58.06	0.04	0.04
Marist	MAAC	0.23	0.23	19.35	19.35	-0.14	-0.14
Providence	BE	0.22	0.22	61.76	61.76	0.05	0.05
Delaware	CAA	0.20	0.20	38.71	38.71	-0.04	-0.04
Canisius	MAAC	0.19	0.19	65.62	65.62	0.06	0.06
American	Pat	0.19	0.19	20.00	20.00	-0.11	-0.11
Syracuse	ACC	0.19	0.19	60.61	60.61	0.04	0.04
Niagara	MAAC	0.16	0.16	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
George Washington	A10	0.16	0.16	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.16	0.16	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.16	0.16	70.97	70.97	0.07	0.07
Butler	BE	0.15	0.15	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Temple	Amer	0.15	0.15	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.15	0.15	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.14	0.14	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Northeastern	CAA	0.14	0.14	68.75	68.75	0.05	0.05
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.13	0.13	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.13	0.13	30.00	30.00	-0.05	-0.05
Toledo	MAC	0.13	0.13	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Notre Dame	ACC	0.13	0.13	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.13	0.13	39.39	39.39	-0.03	-0.03
Iona	MAAC	0.12	0.12	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Manhattan	MAAC	0.12	0.12	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Creighton	BE	0.12	0.12	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.12	0.12	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
La Salle	A10	0.12	0.12	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Siena	MAAC	0.12	0.12	25.00	25.00	-0.06	-0.06
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.10	0.10	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
NJIT	ASun	0.10	0.10	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Fordham	A10	0.10	0.10	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
High Point	BSth	0.10	0.10	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Radford	BSth	0.10	0.10	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Liberty	BSth	0.09	0.09	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.09	0.09	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Campbell	BSth	0.09	0.09	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.09	0.09	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.09	0.09	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Wisconsin	B10	0.09	0.09	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	Amer	0.09	0.09	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.09	0.09	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.09	0.09	15.62	15.62	-0.06	-0.06
Michigan St.	B10	0.09	0.09	87.88	87.88	0.07	0.07
Georgetown	BE	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Maryland	B10	0.09	0.09	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.09	0.09	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Rider	MAAC	0.09	0.09	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
Marquette	BE	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.08	0.08	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Ohio St.	B10	0.08	0.08	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Duquesne	A10	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Akron	MAC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
BYU	WCC	0.07	0.07	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Cal Poly	BW	0.07	0.07	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
Hawaii	BW	0.07	0.07	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.07	0.07	76.67	76.67	0.04	0.04
USC	P12	0.07	0.07	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.06	0.06	62.07	62.07	0.02	0.02
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.06	0.06	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Presbyterian	BSth	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.06	0.06	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
TCU	B12	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.06	0.06	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Wofford	SC	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.06	0.06	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	6.67	6.67	-0.05	-0.05
Howard	MEAC	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Towson	CAA	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
UMKC	WAC	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Illinois	B10	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Cincinnati	Amer	0.06	0.06	88.24	88.24	0.05	0.05
East Carolina	Amer	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
SMU	Amer	0.06	0.06	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Tulsa	Amer	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
UCF	Amer	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	Amer	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Louisville	ACC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Rutgers	B10	0.06	0.06	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.06	0.06	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
DePaul	BE	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Iowa	B10	0.06	0.06	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Purdue	B10	0.06	0.06	82.35	82.35	0.04	0.04
Seton Hall	BE	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
St. John's	BE	0.06	0.06	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Xavier	BE	0.06	0.06	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
Air Force	MWC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
VMI	SC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Denver	Sum	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Lipscomb	ASun	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Arizona	P12	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Houston	Amer	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Oregon	P12	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
South Florida	Amer	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	Amer	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
George Mason	A10	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Montana	BSky	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.03	0.03	71.43	71.43	0.01	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.03	0.03	93.94	93.94	0.02	0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01