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Through games of Feb 11, 2016.


Columbia

Conference:Ivy
Expected RPI:124.9
Current RPI:117
Expected SOS:187
Current SOS:212
Current Record:14-7
Expected Record:19-10
Current Conf Record:5-1
Expected Conf Record:10-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-2
Current OOC Record:9-6
Expected OOC Record:9-6
Expected OOC RPI:158
Expected OOC SOS:219



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-776.10.99%
21-889.17.44%
20-9105.723.64%
19-10123.632.60%
18-11141.023.38%
17-12157.69.65%
16-13173.22.05%
15-14187.00.24%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Columbia.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Kansas St. (70.2)B12A81-71L0%0.0
11-20Northwestern (120.7)B10A83-80L0%0.0
11-22Lehigh (196.2)PatH88-61W100%0.0
11-24Wofford (179.3)SCH70-59W100%0.0
11-27Fairfield (173.8)MAACA82-81L0%0.0
11-28Longwood (320.7)BSthH69-70L0%0.0
12-2Bucknell (181.8)PatA61-72W100%0.0
12-4Saint Joseph's (26.8)A10H78-80L0%0.0
12-6Delaware (268.7)CAAH82-69W100%0.0
12-9Manhattan (226.2)MAACA71-72W100%0.0
12-12NJIT (184.9)ASunH65-56W100%0.0
12-14Robert Morris (306.3)NECH78-71W100%0.0
12-28Howard (295.2)MEACH72-59W100%0.0
1-2Stony Brook (41.9)AEA69-60L0%0.0
1-6Maryland Eastern Shore (274.8)MEACH81-75W100%0.0
1-16Cornell (207.9)IvyH74-70W100%0.0
1-23Cornell (207.9)IvyA68-79W100%0.0
1-29Dartmouth (292.6)IvyA60-77W100%0.0
1-30Harvard (211.8)IvyA54-55W100%0.0
2-5Yale (56.9)IvyA86-72L0%0.0
2-6Brown (291.8)IvyA73-77W100%0.0
2-12Penn (276.4)IvyH0-084%10.7
2-13Princeton (51.7)IvyH0-041%-2.4
2-19Harvard (211.8)IvyH0-071%6.1
2-20Dartmouth (292.6)IvyH0-086%11.5
2-26Princeton (51.7)IvyA0-020%-9.0
2-27Penn (276.4)IvyA0-064%4.0
3-4Brown (291.8)IvyH0-087%12.5
3-5Yale (56.9)IvyH0-038%-3.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Columbia's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Columbia's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Columbia.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ColumbiaIvy26.2526.3369.4764.6710.227.73
PrincetonIvy0.404.3072.2275.140.182.16
YaleIvy2.784.3072.2274.111.242.07
HarvardIvy2.744.2836.8440.43-0.72-0.82
DartmouthIvy2.734.2733.3333.64-0.91-1.40
PennIvy0.344.2738.8938.62-0.08-0.97
CornellIvy5.064.2447.0643.46-0.30-0.55
BrownIvy2.634.2133.3332.98-0.88-1.43
FairfieldMAAC2.762.0052.1752.510.120.10
BucknellPat2.631.9454.5556.980.240.27
LehighPat2.641.9140.9144.42-0.48-0.21
HowardMEAC2.621.9138.1040.42-0.62-0.37
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.631.9030.4334.96-1.03-0.57
Saint Joseph'sA102.431.8882.6180.661.591.15
Robert MorrisNEC2.481.8528.0029.56-1.09-0.76
Stony BrookAE2.481.8581.8282.361.581.20
NJITASun2.501.8258.3357.630.420.28
WoffordSC2.491.8247.8349.84-0.11-0.01
ManhattanMAAC2.531.8147.6244.83-0.12-0.19
LongwoodBSth2.441.7918.1821.81-1.56-1.01
Kansas St.B122.431.7556.5254.840.320.17
NorthwesternB102.431.7562.5060.820.610.38
DelawareCAA2.381.7226.0925.82-1.14-0.83
LafayettePat0.280.3420.8321.68-0.16-0.20
BryantNEC0.340.3124.0024.92-0.18-0.15
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.240.2840.9143.32-0.04-0.04
CanisiusMAAC0.400.2842.3144.53-0.06-0.03
MaristMAAC0.280.2821.7424.25-0.16-0.14
VermontAE0.240.2552.0054.860.010.02
Holy CrossPat0.280.2541.6739.59-0.05-0.05
Central ConnecticutNEC0.220.2512.5013.27-0.16-0.18
MaineAE0.230.2232.0031.16-0.08-0.08
AlbanyAE0.290.2273.0873.780.130.11
Boston UniversityPat0.260.2156.0056.510.030.03
SienaMAAC0.330.2165.3864.970.100.06
Loyola MDPat0.300.2133.3335.18-0.10-0.06
NiagaraMAAC0.270.2124.0024.61-0.14-0.11
BinghamtonAE0.230.1924.0026.44-0.12-0.09
HartfordAE0.230.1924.0024.55-0.12-0.10
New HampshireAE0.180.1959.0956.870.030.03
ColgatePat0.230.1943.4844.90-0.03-0.02
NavyPat0.100.1964.0064.460.030.05
UMass LowellAE0.320.1937.5037.69-0.08-0.05
UMBCAE0.310.1823.0825.87-0.17-0.09
AmericanPat0.310.1829.1731.19-0.13-0.07
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.189.0912.26-0.08-0.14
MonmouthMAAC0.280.1880.0081.160.170.11
RiderMAAC0.150.1840.0042.04-0.03-0.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.210.1833.3336.31-0.07-0.05
HamptonMEAC0.100.1659.0961.280.020.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.1643.4850.64-0.010.00
ProvidenceBE0.170.1672.0069.130.070.06
George MasonA100.160.1533.3333.63-0.05-0.05
NortheasternCAA0.210.1548.0048.60-0.01-0.00
DrexelCAA0.100.1513.0416.42-0.07-0.10
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.100.1552.1753.720.000.01
MarylandB100.140.1587.5083.660.110.10
South Carolina St.MEAC0.150.1552.1754.130.010.01
IonaMAAC0.200.1560.8760.670.040.03
MassachusettsA100.160.1543.4842.40-0.02-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.240.1552.1751.830.010.01
SMUAmer0.130.1386.9682.920.090.08
LibertyBSth0.050.1334.7836.53-0.02-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.170.1231.8236.11-0.06-0.03
LipscombASun0.100.1228.0030.49-0.04-0.05
ArmyPat0.160.1254.1754.290.010.01
TempleAmer0.100.1265.2262.370.030.03
VillanovaBE0.100.1287.5086.850.070.09
Morgan St.MEAC0.160.1219.0525.90-0.10-0.06
La SalleA100.050.1219.0520.30-0.03-0.07
LIU BrooklynNEC0.110.1250.0051.280.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.160.1258.3357.250.030.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.150.1214.2920.64-0.11-0.07
QuinnipiacMAAC0.100.1234.7834.97-0.03-0.04
KansasB120.110.1282.6179.200.070.07
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.200.1242.3146.12-0.03-0.01
OklahomaB120.160.1286.9682.620.120.08
St. Francis NYNEC0.150.1240.0043.49-0.03-0.02
MissouriSEC0.200.1233.3330.28-0.07-0.05
North CarolinaACC0.200.1183.3378.380.130.06
SyracuseACC0.180.0968.0064.090.060.03
GeorgetownBE0.110.0956.0052.870.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.170.0954.1752.000.010.00
PittsburghACC0.170.0972.7367.600.080.03
RadfordBSth0.110.0952.1754.100.000.01
IllinoisB100.060.0945.8344.07-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.100.0966.6766.770.030.03
Boston CollegeACC0.110.0929.1726.69-0.05-0.04
PresbyterianBSth0.100.0923.8125.49-0.05-0.04
William & MaryCAA0.150.0968.1867.110.060.03
PurdueB100.110.0980.0077.910.060.05
FordhamA100.150.0952.3850.690.010.00
Oklahoma St.B120.100.0945.8342.30-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.100.0950.0046.770.00-0.01
WagnerNEC0.100.0860.8762.520.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0666.6767.670.020.02
DukeACC0.060.0675.0071.840.030.03
Miami FLACC0.000.0682.6177.580.000.04
Seton HallBE0.060.0670.8368.080.030.02
StanfordP120.060.0647.6244.06-0.00-0.01
USCP120.060.0678.2673.130.040.03
WashingtonP120.000.0662.5060.140.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.100.0658.3359.970.020.01
AuburnSEC0.060.0639.1335.45-0.01-0.02
BYUWCC0.060.0668.0070.260.020.02
CampbellBSth0.100.0631.8232.08-0.04-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.110.0650.0049.320.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0643.4845.21-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.050.0657.1459.870.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.100.0662.5063.450.030.02
WinthropBSth0.100.0666.6763.780.030.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.100.0657.1457.670.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.0629.1733.11-0.04-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.100.0625.0033.23-0.05-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0638.1037.67-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.100.0683.3383.710.070.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0660.8758.900.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0660.8760.240.010.01
ElonCAA0.050.0650.0050.070.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0650.0052.870.000.00
FurmanSC0.050.0656.0054.430.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0672.0071.320.020.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.100.0625.0026.38-0.05-0.03
MercerSC0.100.0666.6767.110.030.02
North FloridaASun0.050.0662.5064.120.010.02
SamfordSC0.100.0640.0041.68-0.02-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.100.0620.0019.73-0.06-0.04
StetsonASun0.100.0622.7327.39-0.05-0.03
The CitadelSC0.050.0630.4329.49-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.100.0662.5057.730.020.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0626.0928.41-0.02-0.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.100.0677.2773.930.050.03
USC UpstateASun0.050.0621.7422.42-0.03-0.03
VMISC0.100.0619.0519.67-0.06-0.04
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0631.8234.54-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0647.8348.57-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.100.0656.5255.820.010.01
RutgersB100.050.0621.7420.34-0.03-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.100.0656.5257.060.010.01
Michigan St.B100.100.0680.0081.560.060.04
Old DominionCUSA0.100.0658.3363.180.020.02
BaylorB120.100.0673.9168.450.050.02
DuquesneA100.050.0660.8756.270.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.100.0659.0955.160.020.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0670.8367.970.020.02
MinnesotaB100.100.0625.0027.26-0.05-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.090.0620.0022.25-0.06-0.03
NebraskaB100.050.0652.0050.760.000.00
Ohio St.B100.100.0660.0055.560.020.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0634.7832.39-0.02-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0672.7370.410.020.02
TCUB120.000.0645.8339.36-0.00-0.01
TexasB120.050.0666.6762.200.020.01
Texas TechB120.050.0660.8755.310.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.100.0652.0048.920.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.100.0679.1778.100.060.03
Notre DameACC0.050.0370.8367.930.020.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0345.4546.08-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.050.0360.8757.130.010.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0325.0029.89-0.03-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0347.6249.39-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0327.2727.80-0.02-0.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0385.0083.440.040.02
MemphisAmer0.050.0358.3359.310.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0350.0048.950.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0381.8281.780.030.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0345.4554.18-0.000.00
VirginiaACC0.050.0383.3378.460.030.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0341.6739.90-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0340.0042.85-0.01-0.00
BradleyMVC0.050.0312.0011.95-0.04-0.02
ClemsonACC0.050.0358.3358.400.010.00
Kent St.MAC0.050.0365.2260.600.010.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0375.0072.610.020.01
St. John'sBE0.050.0325.0023.45-0.02-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.050.0343.4837.80-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.050.034.357.72-0.04-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0372.0071.570.020.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0354.5552.530.000.00
DavidsonA100.000.0361.9058.170.000.00
DaytonA100.000.0386.9682.160.000.02
DePaulBE0.050.0333.3334.02-0.02-0.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0366.6766.320.020.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0375.0071.960.020.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0356.0054.080.010.00
IndianaB100.050.0380.0075.690.030.01
IowaB100.050.0379.1778.880.030.02
MichiganB100.000.0370.8366.750.000.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0362.5058.940.010.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0365.2268.600.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0326.3232.40-0.02-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.050.0345.0048.13-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.050.0365.3865.510.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0316.6719.49-0.03-0.02
South DakotaSum0.050.0344.0043.56-0.01-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0365.2264.340.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0375.0075.340.020.01
VCUA100.050.0370.8371.050.020.01
WisconsinB100.050.0362.5057.000.010.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0330.4332.26-0.02-0.01