Columbia

Conference:	Ivy
Expected RPI:	150.3
Current RPI:	152
Expected SOS:	174
Current SOS:	181
Current Record:	11-9
Expected Record:	15-13
Current Conf Record:	2-4
Expected Conf Record:	6-8
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.01%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	5-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-3
Current OOC Record:	9-5
Expected OOC Record:	9-5
Expected OOC RPI:	103
Expected OOC SOS:	193

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
19-9	98.2	0.24%
18-10	112.3	2.94%
17-11	124.9	13.25%
16-12	138.9	28.20%
15-13	154.8	31.85%
14-14	172.4	17.68%
13-15	190.1	5.06%
12-16	207.6	0.72%
11-17	219.2	0.05%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Columbia.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Connecticut (27.1)	BE	A	70-57	L	0%	0.0
11-14	Furman (230.9)	SC	H	58-62	L	0%	0.0
11-19	American (150.9)	Pat	H	58-66	L	0%	0.0
11-22	Stony Brook (154.7)	AE	A	67-53	L	0%	0.0
11-26	Manhattan (115.3)	MAAC	A	41-59	W	100%	0.0
12-2	Loyola Marymount (107.0)	WCC	A	61-69	W	100%	0.0
12-3	North Texas (203.3)	SB	N	72-57	W	100%	0.0
12-6	Holy Cross (226.1)	Pat	H	46-45	W	100%	0.0
12-10	Long Island (107.1)	NEC	H	63-53	W	100%	0.0
12-28	Marist (276.6)	MAAC	A	79-59	L	0%	0.0
12-30	Lafayette (210.2)	Pat	H	77-67	W	100%	0.0
1-2	Fairleigh Dickinson (323.4)	NEC	H	67-52	W	100%	0.0
1-4	Colgate (296.0)	Pat	A	59-66	W	100%	0.0
1-8	Elon (223.5)	SC	A	60-65	W	100%	0.0
1-13	Pennsylvania (113.9)	Ivy	H	64-66	L	0%	0.0
1-14	Princeton (117.6)	Ivy	H	58-62	L	0%	0.0
1-21	Cornell (178.3)	Ivy	H	61-56	W	100%	0.0
1-28	Cornell (178.3)	Ivy	A	65-60	L	0%	0.0
2-3	Dartmouth (320.3)	Ivy	A	62-64	W	100%	0.0
2-4	Harvard (36.7)	Ivy	A	57-52	L	0%	0.0
2-10	Brown (305.2)	Ivy	H	0-0		90%	14.3
2-11	Yale (117.5)	Ivy	H	0-0		62%	3.3
2-17	Princeton (117.6)	Ivy	A	0-0		30%	-5.8
2-18	Pennsylvania (113.9)	Ivy	A	0-0		29%	-6.1
2-24	Yale (117.5)	Ivy	A	0-0		38%	-3.5
2-25	Brown (305.2)	Ivy	A	0-0		76%	7.5
3-2	Harvard (36.7)	Ivy	H	0-0		24%	-7.6
3-3	Dartmouth (320.3)	Ivy	H	0-0		86%	11.8

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Columbia's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Columbia's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Columbia.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Columbia	Ivy	26.29	26.32	56.12	55.75	3.22	3.02
Pennsylvania	Ivy	2.86	4.42	52.38	54.86	0.14	0.43
Dartmouth	Ivy	2.92	4.42	15.00	17.93	-2.05	-2.84
Harvard	Ivy	2.92	4.42	90.00	87.91	2.34	3.35
Brown	Ivy	0.35	4.39	27.27	24.29	-0.16	-2.26
Princeton	Ivy	2.81	4.39	44.44	50.38	-0.31	0.03
Cornell	Ivy	5.36	4.38	35.29	40.76	-1.58	-0.81
Yale	Ivy	0.30	4.34	72.22	64.27	0.13	1.24
Holy Cross	Pat	2.84	2.19	42.86	43.61	-0.41	-0.28
Lafayette	Pat	2.89	2.15	45.45	44.48	-0.26	-0.24
American	Pat	2.85	2.10	63.64	62.50	0.78	0.52
Colgate	Pat	2.83	2.07	31.82	30.55	-1.03	-0.80
Manhattan	MAAC	2.67	1.96	70.83	71.37	1.11	0.84
Elon	SC	2.68	1.94	52.63	49.42	0.14	-0.02
Marist	MAAC	2.71	1.93	31.82	31.05	-0.99	-0.73
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	2.67	1.91	9.09	12.57	-2.18	-1.43
Stony Brook	AE	2.69	1.88	65.00	66.82	0.81	0.63
Loyola Marymount	WCC	2.62	1.88	61.90	59.90	0.62	0.37
Connecticut	BE	2.62	1.88	66.67	62.75	0.87	0.48
Long Island	NEC	2.61	1.88	73.91	73.50	1.25	0.88
Furman	SC	2.56	1.82	45.00	46.86	-0.26	-0.11
North Texas	SB	2.56	1.82	52.63	52.01	0.13	0.07
Bucknell	Pat	0.53	0.47	73.91	75.00	0.25	0.24
Army	Pat	0.33	0.41	40.91	41.72	-0.06	-0.07
Vermont	AE	0.34	0.35	60.00	62.49	0.07	0.09
Lehigh	Pat	0.46	0.35	73.91	74.91	0.22	0.17
Albany	AE	0.42	0.31	60.00	60.42	0.08	0.07
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.28	0.31	44.00	45.89	-0.03	-0.03
Wagner	NEC	0.39	0.30	82.61	84.57	0.26	0.21
Navy	Pat	0.34	0.28	9.52	13.19	-0.27	-0.21
New Hampshire	AE	0.28	0.28	35.00	38.58	-0.09	-0.06
Rider	MAAC	0.39	0.27	37.50	38.52	-0.10	-0.06
Monmouth	NEC	0.17	0.27	28.00	28.91	-0.07	-0.12
Hartford	AE	0.17	0.26	17.39	20.97	-0.11	-0.15
Bryant	NEC	0.17	0.25	8.33	10.86	-0.14	-0.20
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.16	0.24	56.52	55.95	0.02	0.03
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.22	0.22	56.52	57.15	0.03	0.03
Maine	AE	0.17	0.22	50.00	49.73	0.00	-0.00
Boston University	AE	0.31	0.19	48.00	51.88	-0.01	0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.35	0.19	0.00	4.02	-0.35	-0.18
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.11	0.19	45.45	45.70	-0.01	-0.02
Rutgers	BE	0.24	0.19	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.24	0.19	72.73	71.71	0.11	0.08
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.32	0.18	21.74	22.76	-0.18	-0.10
Siena	MAAC	0.17	0.18	45.45	45.55	-0.02	-0.02
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.21	0.18	21.74	24.58	-0.12	-0.09
College of Charleston	SC	0.30	0.16	58.33	59.98	0.05	0.03
San Francisco	WCC	0.23	0.16	56.52	53.77	0.03	0.01
Davidson	SC	0.18	0.16	76.19	76.76	0.09	0.08
Delaware	CAA	0.24	0.15	47.83	50.65	-0.01	0.00
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.17	0.15	13.64	16.35	-0.12	-0.10
Providence	BE	0.11	0.15	56.52	50.27	0.01	0.00
Longwood	ind	0.11	0.15	30.00	27.84	-0.05	-0.07
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.21	0.15	26.09	28.60	-0.10	-0.06
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.27	0.15	33.33	38.38	-0.09	-0.04
Fairfield	MAAC	0.22	0.15	54.55	54.30	0.02	0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.17	0.15	62.50	62.49	0.04	0.04
Iona	MAAC	0.21	0.15	79.17	80.10	0.12	0.09
Robert Morris	NEC	0.22	0.15	68.00	70.03	0.08	0.06
Appalachian St.	SC	0.12	0.13	35.00	39.29	-0.04	-0.03
The Citadel	SC	0.24	0.13	9.52	11.44	-0.20	-0.10
Western Carolina	SC	0.12	0.13	34.78	37.24	-0.04	-0.03
Buffalo	MAC	0.20	0.13	68.42	66.45	0.07	0.04
Rhode Island	A10	0.00	0.13	20.83	20.60	-0.00	-0.08
Seton Hall	BE	0.11	0.13	65.22	63.74	0.03	0.04
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.11	0.13	36.36	39.72	-0.03	-0.03
Penn St.	B10	0.24	0.13	41.67	38.67	-0.04	-0.03
Boston College	ACC	0.18	0.13	30.43	26.44	-0.07	-0.06
Fordham	A10	0.16	0.12	40.91	34.50	-0.03	-0.04
Notre Dame	BE	0.17	0.12	65.22	62.65	0.05	0.03
Canisius	MAAC	0.16	0.12	17.39	19.81	-0.10	-0.07
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.10	0.12	77.27	73.45	0.06	0.06
Niagara	MAAC	0.15	0.12	37.50	41.54	-0.04	-0.02
Syracuse	BE	0.10	0.12	95.83	92.01	0.10	0.10
Villanova	BE	0.11	0.12	45.45	46.08	-0.01	-0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.06	0.10	27.27	35.02	-0.03	-0.03
Georgia Southern	SC	0.12	0.10	40.00	41.30	-0.02	-0.02
NC Greensboro	SC	0.12	0.10	34.78	33.46	-0.04	-0.03
Samford	SC	0.06	0.10	33.33	35.26	-0.02	-0.03
Wofford	SC	0.06	0.10	59.09	57.93	0.01	0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.13	0.10	70.83	64.42	0.05	0.03
Northeastern	CAA	0.07	0.10	47.83	48.56	-0.00	-0.00
Central Florida	CUSA	0.12	0.09	71.43	66.60	0.05	0.03
UCLA	P12	0.11	0.09	54.55	56.79	0.01	0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.16	0.09	32.00	35.39	-0.06	-0.03
La Salle	A10	0.11	0.09	70.83	68.82	0.05	0.03
George Mason	CAA	0.05	0.09	76.00	72.50	0.03	0.04
Pittsburgh	BE	0.06	0.09	60.87	58.16	0.01	0.01
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.06	0.07	43.48	44.25	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.13	0.07	37.50	38.33	-0.03	-0.02
Denver	SB	0.06	0.07	70.83	72.23	0.03	0.03
Florida	SEC	0.00	0.07	82.61	77.63	0.00	0.04
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.06	0.07	54.17	54.75	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.06	0.07	8.70	8.99	-0.05	-0.06
Wake Forest	ACC	0.00	0.07	47.83	43.66	-0.00	-0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.12	0.07	34.78	34.48	-0.04	-0.02
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.12	0.07	83.33	84.76	0.08	0.05
Illinois	B10	0.13	0.07	72.73	64.43	0.06	0.02
Maryland	ACC	0.13	0.07	59.09	50.82	0.02	0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.13	0.07	60.00	59.06	0.03	0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.11	0.06	75.00	76.00	0.06	0.03
Drexel	CAA	0.07	0.06	79.17	78.10	0.04	0.04
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.07	0.06	19.05	22.37	-0.04	-0.04
Gonzaga	WCC	0.06	0.06	81.82	81.49	0.04	0.04
Idaho St.	BSky	0.11	0.06	33.33	33.88	-0.04	-0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.07	0.06	45.45	46.99	-0.01	-0.00
Pepperdine	WCC	0.11	0.06	31.82	33.83	-0.04	-0.02
Portland	WCC	0.06	0.06	21.74	21.70	-0.03	-0.04
San Diego	WCC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.82	-0.02	-0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.06	0.06	28.57	26.30	-0.02	-0.03
St. Mary's	WCC	0.06	0.06	90.91	87.74	0.05	0.05
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.06	0.06	39.13	36.10	-0.01	-0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	28.57	34.20	-0.03	-0.02
George Washington	A10	0.06	0.06	34.78	32.08	-0.02	-0.02
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.06	0.06	35.00	35.31	-0.02	-0.02
Seattle	ind	0.06	0.06	23.53	33.28	-0.03	-0.02
Utah	P12	0.06	0.06	18.18	15.01	-0.04	-0.04
Georgetown	BE	0.11	0.06	80.95	77.38	0.07	0.03
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.06	78.26	72.66	0.03	0.03
Radford	BSth	0.11	0.06	8.70	13.10	-0.09	-0.04
South Florida	BE	0.11	0.06	54.55	48.60	0.01	-0.00
Iowa	B10	0.00	0.06	54.17	49.44	0.00	-0.00
Duke	ACC	0.06	0.06	86.36	83.09	0.04	0.04
James Madison	CAA	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.18	-0.01	-0.01
Temple	A10	0.06	0.06	77.27	75.06	0.03	0.03
Florida International	SB	0.00	0.03	33.33	37.16	-0.00	-0.01
Grambling	SWAC	0.06	0.03	15.00	15.73	-0.04	-0.02
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.06	0.03	19.05	25.52	-0.04	-0.02
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.06	0.03	59.09	57.28	0.01	0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.06	0.03	78.26	72.34	0.04	0.02
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.06	0.03	26.32	29.79	-0.03	-0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.06	0.03	52.38	52.87	0.00	0.00
Texas	B12	0.06	0.03	60.87	61.37	0.01	0.01
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.06	0.03	76.19	75.94	0.03	0.02
Texas Tech	B12	0.06	0.03	31.82	25.98	-0.02	-0.02
Troy	SB	0.06	0.03	28.57	30.17	-0.03	-0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.06	0.03	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.06	0.03	33.33	34.47	-0.02	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.06	0.03	45.45	41.20	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.06	0.03	75.00	75.78	0.03	0.02
Jacksonville	ASun	0.06	0.03	17.39	22.00	-0.04	-0.02
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.06	0.03	19.05	21.29	-0.04	-0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.06	0.03	73.91	68.58	0.03	0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.06	0.03	70.83	71.64	0.02	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.06	0.03	86.96	83.16	0.05	0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.06	0.03	61.90	55.14	0.01	0.00
Presbyterian	BSth	0.06	0.03	40.91	43.66	-0.01	-0.00
San Diego St.	MWC	0.06	0.03	85.71	78.05	0.04	0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.06	0.03	40.91	39.56	-0.01	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.06	0.03	25.00	37.58	-0.03	-0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.06	0.03	13.64	16.14	-0.04	-0.02
St. Louis	A10	0.06	0.03	77.27	77.67	0.03	0.02
Valparaiso	Horz	0.00	0.03	65.22	63.61	0.00	0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.03	40.91	38.38	-0.01	-0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.03	36.36	38.48	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.03	18.18	22.22	-0.03	-0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.03	95.83	92.57	0.05	0.03
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.03	20.00	19.96	-0.03	-0.02
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.03	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.03	69.57	65.87	0.02	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.03	75.00	73.97	0.03	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.06	0.03	69.57	65.15	0.02	0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.06	0.03	69.57	65.47	0.02	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.06	0.03	42.11	49.81	-0.01	-0.00
DePaul	BE	0.00	0.03	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.00
Marquette	BE	0.00	0.03	79.17	75.98	0.00	0.02
NC Asheville	BSth	0.06	0.03	68.18	67.64	0.02	0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	68.18	69.68	0.02	0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.05	0.03	60.00	58.29	0.01	0.00
St. John's	BE	0.06	0.03	43.48	40.28	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.06	0.03	45.45	44.66	-0.01	-0.00
Texas St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	22.22	27.62	-0.03	-0.01
West Virginia	BE	0.06	0.03	65.22	65.17	0.02	0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.03	66.67	60.80	0.02	0.01
Fresno St.	WAC	0.05	0.03	39.13	44.52	-0.01	-0.00
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.03	4.00	5.26	-0.05	-0.03