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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Columbia

Conference:Ivy
Expected RPI:316.0
Current RPI:316
Expected SOS:258
Current SOS:258
Current Record:7-19
Expected Record:7-19
Current Conf Record:5-9
Expected Conf Record:5-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-7
Current OOC Record:2-10
Expected OOC Record:2-10
Expected OOC RPI:307
Expected OOC SOS:229



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
7-19316.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Columbia.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Villanova (2.0)BEA75-60L0%0.0
11-14Longwood (337.0)BSthA77-87W100%0.0
11-17Penn St. (77.0)B10A79-65L0%0.0
11-21Army (280.0)PatA88-78L0%0.0
11-25Colgate (185.0)PatA77-71L0%0.0
11-29Connecticut (123.0)AmerA77-73L0%0.0
12-2Albany (142.0)AEA86-82L0%0.0
12-4Quinnipiac (277.0)MAACH87-89L0%0.0
12-7Stony Brook (208.0)AEH66-76L0%0.0
12-10Navy (200.0)PatH68-73L0%0.0
12-12Boston College (96.0)ACCA81-66L0%0.0
12-30Maine (338.0)AEH83-71W100%0.0
1-12Princeton (226.0)IvyA72-56L0%0.0
1-13Penn (112.0)IvyA77-71L0%0.0
1-20Cornell (248.0)IvyH88-62W100%0.0
1-27Cornell (248.0)IvyA82-81L0%0.0
2-2Harvard (117.0)IvyH83-76W100%0.0
2-3Dartmouth (334.0)IvyH77-74W100%0.0
2-9Yale (183.0)IvyA88-84L0%0.0
2-10Brown (298.0)IvyA91-88L0%0.0
2-16Penn (112.0)IvyH62-74L0%0.0
2-17Princeton (226.0)IvyH85-60W100%0.0
2-23Brown (298.0)IvyH89-82W100%0.0
2-24Yale (183.0)IvyH73-83L0%0.0
3-2Dartmouth (334.0)IvyA80-78L0%0.0
3-3Harvard (117.0)IvyA93-74L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Columbia's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Columbia's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Columbia.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ColumbiaIvy26.3226.3224.5124.51-13.42-13.42
PennIvy4.874.8772.4172.412.182.18
HarvardIvy4.814.8157.1457.140.690.69
CornellIvy4.794.7940.0040.00-0.96-0.96
DartmouthIvy4.774.7720.8320.83-2.79-2.79
YaleIvy4.774.7746.4346.43-0.34-0.34
BrownIvy4.714.7137.5037.50-1.18-1.18
PrincetonIvy4.664.6642.3142.31-0.72-0.72
AlbanyAE2.252.2566.6766.670.750.75
ColgatePat2.212.2156.6756.670.290.29
Stony BrookAE2.182.1836.6736.67-0.58-0.58
MaineAE2.182.1813.7913.79-1.58-1.58
NavyPat2.112.1160.0060.000.420.42
QuinnipiacMAAC2.102.1034.3834.38-0.66-0.66
Boston CollegeACC2.062.0654.5554.550.190.19
ArmyPat2.052.0539.2939.29-0.44-0.44
VillanovaBE2.022.0287.8887.881.531.53
ConnecticutAmer2.012.0141.9441.94-0.32-0.32
LongwoodBSth1.991.9913.7913.79-1.44-1.44
Penn St.B101.921.9260.6160.610.410.41
VermontAE0.480.4878.7978.790.280.28
LafayettePat0.480.4830.0030.00-0.19-0.19
BinghamtonAE0.350.3531.0331.03-0.13-0.13
Boston UniversityPat0.350.3546.6746.67-0.02-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.350.3538.7138.71-0.08-0.08
UMass LowellAE0.330.3337.9337.93-0.08-0.08
LehighPat0.320.3251.7251.720.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.300.3026.6726.67-0.14-0.14
MonmouthMAAC0.290.2935.4835.48-0.08-0.08
BryantNEC0.270.279.689.68-0.22-0.22
New HampshireAE0.260.2627.5927.59-0.12-0.12
Saint Joseph'sA100.260.2650.0050.000.000.00
BucknellPat0.250.2573.5373.530.120.12
UMBCAE0.250.2567.7467.740.090.09
HartfordAE0.250.2558.0658.060.040.04
MaristMAAC0.230.2319.3519.35-0.14-0.14
ProvidenceBE0.220.2261.7661.760.050.05
DelawareCAA0.200.2038.7138.71-0.04-0.04
CanisiusMAAC0.190.1965.6265.620.060.06
AmericanPat0.190.1920.0020.00-0.11-0.11
SyracuseACC0.190.1960.6160.610.040.04
NiagaraMAAC0.160.1659.3859.380.030.03
George WashingtonA100.160.1645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.160.1645.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.160.1670.9770.970.070.07
ButlerBE0.150.1560.6160.610.030.03
TempleAmer0.150.1553.1253.120.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.150.1551.5251.520.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.140.1437.9337.93-0.03-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.140.1468.7568.750.050.05
Central ConnecticutNEC0.130.1343.7543.75-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.130.1330.0030.00-0.05-0.05
ToledoMAC0.130.1366.6766.670.040.04
Notre DameACC0.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
MassachusettsA100.130.1339.3939.39-0.03-0.03
IonaMAAC0.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
ManhattanMAAC0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.120.1264.5264.520.040.04
Georgia TechACC0.120.1240.6240.62-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.120.1240.6240.62-0.02-0.02
SienaMAAC0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
LIU BrooklynNEC0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
NJITASun0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
High PointBSth0.100.1040.7440.74-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
LibertyBSth0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
HofstraCAA0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
CampbellBSth0.090.0946.4346.43-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
WisconsinB100.090.0945.4545.45-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.090.0961.7661.760.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.0915.6215.62-0.06-0.06
Michigan St.B100.090.0987.8887.880.070.07
GeorgetownBE0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
MarylandB100.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
PittsburghACC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
RiderMAAC0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
MarquetteBE0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
NebraskaB100.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
Ohio St.B100.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
DuquesneA100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
AkronMAC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
Cal PolyBW0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
HawaiiBW0.070.0753.5753.570.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0776.6776.670.040.04
USCP120.070.0767.6567.650.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0662.0762.070.020.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0637.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0628.5728.57-0.03-0.03
KentuckySEC0.060.0670.5970.590.030.03
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.060.0684.8584.850.040.04
St. BonaventureA100.060.0678.1278.120.040.04
TCUB120.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
WinthropBSth0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
WoffordSC0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
DaytonA100.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.066.676.67-0.05-0.05
HowardMEAC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
UMKCWAC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
IllinoisB100.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0688.2488.240.050.05
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
TulsaAmer0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
UCFAmer0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Wichita St.Amer0.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
LouisvilleACC0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
RutgersB100.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
DePaulBE0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
IowaB100.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.060.0682.3582.350.040.04
Seton HallBE0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
St. John'sBE0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.060.0684.8584.850.040.04
Air ForceMWC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0377.4277.420.020.02
VMISC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.010.01
DenverSum0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
OregonP120.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
DrexelCAA0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
George MasonA100.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
IndianaB100.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
MichiganB100.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
MontanaBSky0.030.0377.4277.420.020.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0371.4371.430.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0393.9493.940.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01