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Through games of Dec 20, 2014.


Columbia

Conference:Ivy
Expected RPI:85.5
Current RPI:115
Expected SOS:140
Current SOS:148
Current Record:6-3
Expected Record:18-9
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-3
Current OOC Record:6-3
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:85
Expected OOC SOS:127



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-320.50.06%
23-426.90.66%
22-535.33.01%
21-645.37.76%
20-757.015.56%
19-871.919.96%
18-987.921.23%
17-10106.715.97%
16-11125.79.12%
15-12145.94.42%
14-13164.41.57%
13-14186.00.46%
12-15209.50.17%
11-16233.00.03%
10-17252.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Columbia.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Stony Brook (140.4)AEA57-56L0%0.0
11-18Wagner (285.5)NECH70-56W100%0.0
11-23Lehigh (147.2)PatA44-54W100%0.0
11-25Fairleigh Dickinson (259.6)NECH57-47W100%0.0
11-29American (103.1)PatH52-43W100%0.0
12-2Loyola MD (286.8)PatH62-64L0%0.0
12-6Bucknell (249.1)PatH62-39W100%0.0
12-10Kentucky (1.3)SECA56-46L0%0.0
12-20Hofstra (76.2)CAAH82-77W100%0.0
12-22Connecticut (72.3)AmerN0-050%0.0
12-28Colgate (186.4)PatH0-081%10.4
12-30St. Francis NY (253.2)NECA0-069%5.9
1-6Stony Brook (140.4)AEH0-077%8.8
1-17Cornell (177.6)IvyA0-057%2.2
1-24Cornell (177.6)IvyH0-082%10.6
1-30Yale (79.8)IvyH0-071%6.4
1-31Brown (249.3)IvyH0-092%16.1
2-6Princeton (217.2)IvyH0-084%11.4
2-7Penn (270.6)IvyH0-090%15.3
2-13Harvard (53.8)IvyA0-030%-6.0
2-14Dartmouth (193.6)IvyA0-059%2.7
2-20Brown (249.3)IvyA0-075%7.7
2-21Yale (79.8)IvyA0-043%-1.9
2-27Dartmouth (193.6)IvyH0-083%11.1
2-28Harvard (53.8)IvyH0-058%2.3
3-6Penn (270.6)IvyA0-072%6.9
3-7Princeton (217.2)IvyA0-060%3.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Columbia's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Columbia's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Columbia.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ColumbiaIvy27.6626.3962.8667.287.119.12
PrincetonIvy0.664.5933.3341.97-0.22-0.74
CornellIvy0.314.5655.5650.060.030.01
YaleIvy0.004.5266.6763.230.001.20
BrownIvy0.254.5240.0035.05-0.05-1.35
PennIvy0.354.5237.5033.70-0.09-1.47
DartmouthIvy0.004.4950.0048.050.00-0.18
HarvardIvy0.004.4885.7174.320.002.18
Stony BrookAE5.833.8625.0054.79-2.920.37
AmericanPat5.562.2370.0065.422.220.69
Loyola MDPat5.562.2325.0025.56-2.78-1.09
ColgatePat0.002.1720.0043.42-0.00-0.29
BucknellPat5.562.1144.4437.93-0.62-0.51
LehighPat5.562.1050.0056.060.000.25
WagnerNEC5.832.0814.2931.69-4.17-0.76
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC5.562.0442.8641.12-0.79-0.36
St. Francis NYNEC0.001.9830.0043.58-0.00-0.25
HofstraCAA6.211.9577.7878.723.451.12
ConnecticutAmer0.001.9250.0058.350.000.32
KentuckySEC5.561.85100.0096.165.561.71
LafayettePat0.690.5866.6767.650.230.20
BryantNEC0.000.4928.5745.89-0.00-0.04
Holy CrossPat0.000.4557.1453.770.000.03
Boston UniversityPat0.230.4230.0041.69-0.09-0.07
NavyPat0.000.3820.0022.16-0.00-0.21
VermontAE0.350.3644.4457.69-0.040.06
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.3555.5660.980.000.08
ArmyPat0.000.3577.7868.780.000.13
UMass LowellAE0.000.3250.0050.490.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.620.3233.3345.04-0.21-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.3220.0027.29-0.00-0.14
BinghamtonAE0.000.290.0011.24-0.00-0.22
New HampshireAE0.000.2950.0060.410.000.06
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.840.2933.3341.20-0.28-0.05
St. Francis PANEC0.560.2655.5665.210.060.08
HartfordAE0.000.2650.0050.620.000.00
AlbanyAE0.280.2540.0055.01-0.060.03
MaineAE0.350.2311.1120.80-0.27-0.13
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.2236.3648.18-0.00-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.540.2275.0057.390.270.03
RiderMAAC0.310.2050.0053.250.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1930.0039.59-0.00-0.04
UMBCAE0.310.1918.1825.30-0.20-0.10
La SalleA100.250.1954.5552.730.020.01
NJITind0.000.1641.6743.68-0.00-0.02
Penn St.B100.280.1691.6755.310.230.02
CanisiusMAAC0.620.1655.5662.150.070.04
VanderbiltSEC0.000.1666.6758.210.000.03
TempleAmer0.250.1663.6456.430.070.02
CincinnatiAmer0.310.1670.0064.680.120.05
FloridaSEC0.000.1563.6465.220.000.05
Arizona St.P120.310.1454.5548.490.03-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.660.1360.0043.160.13-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.1370.0060.920.000.03
MonmouthMAAC0.350.1350.0058.370.000.02
VillanovaBE0.590.13100.0082.970.590.09
George MasonA100.000.1333.3330.21-0.00-0.05
SienaMAAC0.310.1333.3349.54-0.10-0.00
SyracuseACC0.310.1360.0058.120.060.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.280.1254.5559.560.030.02
DrexelCAA0.000.1222.2235.90-0.00-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.310.1262.5059.050.080.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.1266.6766.010.000.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.1042.8649.02-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.000.1062.5041.790.00-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.230.1036.3645.11-0.06-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1036.3646.72-0.00-0.01
MaristMAAC0.280.109.0916.15-0.23-0.07
QuinnipiacMAAC0.310.1044.4450.60-0.030.00
LibertyBSth0.000.0925.0035.39-0.00-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.000.0945.4537.60-0.00-0.02
IllinoisB100.250.0975.0065.140.130.03
BuffaloMAC0.230.0977.7870.890.130.04
DelawareCAA0.350.090.008.56-0.35-0.08
TowsonCAA0.000.0960.0047.170.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.280.0940.0041.32-0.06-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.0963.6455.660.000.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0945.4545.10-0.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0766.6742.600.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0754.5552.490.000.00
VirginiaACC0.000.07100.0086.080.000.05
IPFWSum0.000.0750.0054.190.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0750.0037.570.00-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.000.0720.0025.85-0.00-0.03
MercerSC0.000.0744.4444.02-0.00-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0712.5029.51-0.00-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0742.8633.27-0.00-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.0777.7865.110.000.02
RutgersB100.350.0654.5532.590.03-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0622.2229.80-0.00-0.03
CaliforniaP120.000.0690.9169.030.000.02
HowardMEAC0.000.0630.0043.74-0.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0618.1820.86-0.00-0.04
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0680.0076.450.000.03
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0630.0029.75-0.00-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.000.0675.0058.160.000.01
LipscombASun0.000.0622.2238.44-0.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0663.6442.810.00-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.060.0039.10-0.00-0.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0655.5658.650.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0666.6773.310.000.03
San DiegoWCC0.000.0654.5557.570.000.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.060.008.00-0.00-0.05
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0654.5544.930.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0660.0071.280.000.03
WashingtonP120.000.06100.0075.440.000.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.310.0650.0051.710.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.280.0640.0037.64-0.06-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0633.3337.91-0.00-0.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0660.0062.070.000.01
SMUAmer0.000.0672.7375.710.000.03
TulaneAmer0.000.0688.8955.860.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0660.0056.620.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.280.060.0014.00-0.28-0.04
TexasB120.230.0690.9179.980.190.04
AlabamaSEC0.000.0666.6754.130.000.00
ElonCAA0.000.0644.4451.07-0.000.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0640.0032.26-0.00-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0657.1455.330.000.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0657.1457.100.000.01
DePaulBE0.310.0360.0034.160.06-0.01
MarylandB100.350.0390.9168.230.280.01
Notre DameACC0.350.0391.6777.120.290.02
St. John'sBE0.350.0388.8965.170.270.01
ButlerBE0.310.0372.7367.960.140.01
Texas TechB120.310.0390.0055.360.250.00
CampbellBSth0.000.0325.0043.93-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.000.0380.0069.770.000.01
DukeACC0.000.03100.0087.090.000.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.0370.0059.220.000.01
HamptonMEAC0.250.0345.4549.62-0.02-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.250.0372.7367.520.110.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.280.0338.4644.61-0.06-0.00
MichiganB100.280.0350.0040.450.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.250.0316.6737.21-0.17-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0381.8282.250.000.02
PresbyterianBSth0.250.030.008.60-0.25-0.03
StanfordP120.000.0366.6758.320.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0015.00-0.00-0.02
ToledoMAC0.280.0363.6461.520.080.01
UCFAmer0.000.0355.5635.900.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0390.9170.080.000.01
Appalachian St.SB0.280.0337.5034.64-0.07-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0380.0072.200.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0350.0039.790.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.230.0350.0068.770.000.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.280.0316.6743.20-0.19-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.280.0310.0018.05-0.22-0.02
KansasB120.230.0390.0070.680.190.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0084.930.000.02
LSUSEC0.000.0380.0063.910.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0370.0052.600.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0344.4437.40-0.00-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.230.0320.0026.07-0.14-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.230.0372.7374.850.110.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.280.0375.0061.480.140.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0355.5646.290.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0370.0061.320.000.01
UCLAP120.230.0366.6754.480.080.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.230.0355.5655.710.030.00