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Through games of Jan 22, 2018.


Columbia

Conference:Ivy
Expected RPI:278.4
Current RPI:287
Expected SOS:238
Current SOS:192
Current Record:3-12
Expected Record:8-18
Current Conf Record:1-2
Expected Conf Record:6-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-6
Current OOC Record:2-10
Expected OOC Record:2-10
Expected OOC RPI:303
Expected OOC SOS:221



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-12170.30.03%
13-13198.30.35%
12-14216.52.14%
11-15234.36.52%
10-16251.115.22%
9-17268.922.84%
8-18286.323.91%
7-19302.317.71%
6-20316.68.36%
5-21327.72.43%
4-22336.40.44%
3-23339.80.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Columbia.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Villanova (1.9)BEA75-60L0%0.0
11-14Longwood (334.3)BSthA77-87W100%0.0
11-17Penn St. (115.5)B10A79-65L0%0.0
11-21Army (190.3)PatA88-78L0%0.0
11-25Colgate (220.6)PatA77-71L0%0.0
11-29Connecticut (102.8)AmerA77-73L0%0.0
12-2Albany (118.3)AEA86-82L0%0.0
12-4Quinnipiac (303.1)MAACH87-89L0%0.0
12-7Stony Brook (197.0)AEH66-76L0%0.0
12-10Navy (219.9)PatH68-73L0%0.0
12-12Boston College (100.1)ACCA81-66L0%0.0
12-30Maine (331.4)AEH83-71W100%0.0
1-12Princeton (140.5)IvyA72-56L0%0.0
1-13Penn (173.5)IvyA77-71L0%0.0
1-20Cornell (279.9)IvyH88-62W100%0.0
1-27Cornell (279.9)IvyA0-057%1.8
2-2Harvard (177.8)IvyH0-047%-0.8
2-3Dartmouth (318.6)IvyH0-076%7.8
2-9Yale (201.7)IvyA0-029%-6.3
2-10Brown (260.9)IvyA0-047%-0.8
2-16Penn (173.5)IvyH0-046%-1.1
2-17Princeton (140.5)IvyH0-037%-3.8
2-23Brown (260.9)IvyH0-069%5.6
2-24Yale (201.7)IvyH0-050%0.1
3-2Dartmouth (318.6)IvyA0-055%1.4
3-3Harvard (177.8)IvyA0-026%-7.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Columbia's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Columbia's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Columbia.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ColumbiaIvy26.3426.3721.3133.18-15.12-8.87
DartmouthIvy0.334.8121.4325.64-0.19-2.34
PennIvy3.714.7662.5061.630.931.11
CornellIvy3.714.7535.7134.19-1.06-1.50
BrownIvy0.174.7550.0045.400.00-0.44
YaleIvy0.084.7341.1846.65-0.01-0.32
HarvardIvy0.004.6937.5045.410.00-0.43
PrincetonIvy3.544.6950.0058.570.000.80
AlbanyAE3.602.2370.0069.221.440.86
ColgatePat3.782.2247.0649.21-0.22-0.04
MaineAE3.672.1911.1115.35-2.85-1.52
Stony BrookAE3.592.1633.3343.23-1.20-0.29
NavyPat3.622.1357.8953.620.570.15
QuinnipiacMAAC3.422.1031.5829.47-1.26-0.86
Boston CollegeACC3.512.0663.1653.080.920.13
ArmyPat3.422.0658.8258.970.600.37
ConnecticutAmer3.602.0250.0045.630.00-0.18
VillanovaBE3.522.0294.4489.993.131.62
LongwoodBSth3.442.0017.6516.75-2.23-1.33
Penn St.B103.331.9260.0054.340.670.17
LafayettePat0.750.4722.2227.46-0.41-0.21
VermontAE0.260.4475.0077.870.130.24
BinghamtonAE0.630.3742.1139.93-0.10-0.07
Boston UniversityPat0.520.3750.0053.280.000.02
UMass LowellAE0.190.3433.3333.87-0.06-0.11
LehighPat0.370.3438.8944.74-0.08-0.04
Holy CrossPat0.350.3030.0032.58-0.14-0.11
MonmouthMAAC0.450.3027.7841.03-0.20-0.05
BryantNEC0.160.289.5217.12-0.13-0.18
Loyola MDPat0.270.2822.2228.66-0.15-0.12
New HampshireAE0.170.2733.3340.10-0.06-0.05
Saint Joseph'sA100.270.2750.0051.640.000.01
UMBCAE0.350.2755.5655.550.040.03
HartfordAE0.420.2650.0045.930.00-0.02
MaristMAAC0.360.2421.0521.99-0.21-0.14
BucknellPat0.270.2361.9068.000.060.08
DelawareCAA0.290.2147.3743.00-0.02-0.03
AmericanPat0.270.2025.0026.03-0.13-0.10
SyracuseACC0.290.2068.4261.280.110.05
ProvidenceBE0.170.2070.0060.470.070.04
NiagaraMAAC0.290.1757.1453.040.040.01
CanisiusMAAC0.160.1761.9063.170.040.04
George WashingtonA100.180.1745.0043.49-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.180.1677.7870.410.100.07
TempleAmer0.190.1652.6351.740.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.110.1463.1663.210.030.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.180.1433.3335.21-0.06-0.04
ToledoMAC0.210.1466.6767.670.070.05
Central ConnecticutNEC0.170.1452.3848.530.01-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.170.1430.0033.48-0.07-0.05
NorthwesternB100.160.1455.0050.370.020.00
Notre DameACC0.000.1463.1661.000.000.03
MassachusettsA100.170.1350.0046.810.00-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.1350.0050.860.000.00
ButlerBE0.190.1366.6763.070.060.03
FairfieldMAAC0.100.1338.8944.07-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.080.1360.0064.130.020.04
CreightonBE0.000.1375.0070.720.000.05
La SalleA100.270.1340.0042.69-0.05-0.02
NJITASun0.090.1138.8942.58-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.090.1140.0042.51-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.200.1089.4776.990.160.06
FordhamA100.090.1031.5829.03-0.03-0.04
LibertyBSth0.180.1050.0054.180.000.01
CampbellBSth0.170.1047.0647.41-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.180.1023.5332.57-0.09-0.03
MinnesotaB100.080.1063.6457.610.020.02
HofstraCAA0.270.1057.8959.500.040.02
Wake ForestACC0.260.1042.1140.46-0.04-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.1052.6343.040.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.1026.3230.45-0.04-0.04
WisconsinB100.080.1050.0046.270.00-0.01
SienaMAAC0.250.1028.5729.93-0.11-0.04
GeorgetownBE0.180.1068.4254.080.060.01
MarylandB100.170.1066.6763.130.060.02
Michigan St.B100.180.1085.7183.760.130.06
RiderMAAC0.160.1065.0065.330.050.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.250.099.5217.86-0.20-0.06
MemphisAmer0.170.0965.0058.540.050.02
PittsburghACC0.160.0940.0030.88-0.03-0.04
NebraskaB100.160.0963.6459.480.040.02
DuquesneA100.110.0770.0058.090.040.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0742.1145.980.00-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0783.3381.450.000.05
AkronMAC0.100.0747.0644.92-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.100.0780.9576.240.060.04
Cal PolyBW0.100.0723.5328.20-0.05-0.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0756.2556.820.000.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.090.0725.0031.44-0.05-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.090.0738.8940.78-0.02-0.01
HawaiiBW0.100.0768.7564.010.040.02
High PointBSth0.090.0743.7549.22-0.01-0.00
KentuckySEC0.000.0773.6868.040.000.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.100.0772.2274.730.040.03
PresbyterianBSth0.090.0727.7827.11-0.04-0.03
RadfordBSth0.090.0757.8958.880.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0790.4888.970.000.05
UNC AshevilleBSth0.090.0752.6358.610.000.01
USCP120.100.0771.4368.300.040.03
WinthropBSth0.000.0750.0059.430.000.01
WoffordSC0.000.0768.7563.660.000.02
St. Francis PANEC0.180.0752.9459.250.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.0717.6527.340.00-0.03
DaytonA100.100.0747.3750.94-0.010.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.070.008.42-0.10-0.06
HowardMEAC0.100.0710.5326.29-0.08-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0716.6724.900.00-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.100.0741.1839.14-0.02-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0766.6768.750.000.02
TCUB120.000.0775.0067.830.000.02
TowsonCAA0.100.0763.1665.980.030.02
UMKCWAC0.100.0721.0524.76-0.06-0.03
IllinoisB100.090.0745.0043.62-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.090.0655.0046.650.01-0.00
Texas TechB120.170.0678.9571.750.100.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.080.0642.1146.09-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.160.0678.9569.820.090.03
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0689.4785.550.000.04
DePaulBE0.090.0642.1134.30-0.01-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.090.0642.1132.46-0.01-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.080.0673.6869.660.040.02
IowaB100.080.0647.6243.94-0.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.090.0668.4260.530.030.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0665.0056.350.020.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0681.8276.870.000.03
Seton HallBE0.000.0675.0067.910.000.02
St. John'sBE0.090.0647.3742.16-0.00-0.01
TulsaAmer0.090.0655.0053.330.010.00
UCFAmer0.090.0668.4260.830.030.01
Wichita St.Amer0.090.0678.9577.380.050.03
XavierBE0.090.0685.7180.060.060.04
Air ForceMWC0.090.0337.5031.78-0.02-0.01
Arizona St.P120.090.0378.9576.160.050.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.090.0370.0071.220.040.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.090.0380.0078.870.060.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.090.0368.7567.610.030.01
VMISC0.090.0325.0024.14-0.05-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.090.0361.1158.710.020.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.0317.6534.76-0.06-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.090.0350.0045.850.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.080.0360.0053.720.020.00
DenverSum0.080.0333.3336.47-0.03-0.01
DrexelCAA0.080.0330.0030.97-0.03-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0357.8966.270.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.080.0344.4444.91-0.01-0.00
LipscombASun0.080.0352.9459.380.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0333.3340.35-0.03-0.01
ArizonaP120.090.0380.0078.940.050.02
ArkansasSEC0.090.0368.4264.160.030.01
ClemsonACC0.080.0384.2173.180.060.01
DukeACC0.080.0389.4785.240.070.02
George MasonA100.080.0345.0041.29-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.090.0380.9583.260.050.02
HoustonAmer0.000.0378.9573.000.000.01
IndianaB100.080.0360.0052.880.020.00
MichiganB100.000.0376.1970.800.000.01
MontanaBSky0.080.0370.5973.150.030.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.090.0350.0051.390.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.080.0376.1972.570.040.01
Northern IowaMVC0.090.0344.4450.08-0.010.00
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0330.0032.54-0.03-0.01
OregonP120.090.0365.0063.810.030.01
PurdueB100.000.0390.4888.390.000.02
RichmondA100.080.0331.5834.35-0.03-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0370.0070.610.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0335.0026.130.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.090.0372.2268.930.040.01
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0368.4263.970.030.01
TulaneAmer0.090.0363.1657.870.020.00
VirginiaACC0.080.0394.7486.110.070.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0370.0060.400.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.090.0368.4270.820.030.01