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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Columbia

Conference:Ivy
Expected RPI:130.0
Current RPI:130
Expected SOS:180
Current SOS:180
Current Record:18-12
Expected Record:18-12
Current Conf Record:8-6
Expected Conf Record:8-6
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-2
Current OOC Record:10-6
Expected OOC Record:10-6
Expected OOC RPI:117
Expected OOC SOS:158



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-12130.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Columbia.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Maryland Eastern Shore (347.0)MEACH73-54W100%0.0
11-12Manhattan (60.0)MAACH70-71L0%0.0
11-15Michigan St. (18.0)B10A62-53L0%0.0
11-21North Texas (195.0)CUSAN66-70W100%0.0
11-22Portland (178.0)WCCA69-52L0%0.0
11-23Idaho (238.0)WACN60-65W100%0.0
11-26American (118.0)PatH61-47W100%0.0
12-1Elon (162.0)SCA68-65L0%0.0
12-4Army (235.0)PatH81-64W100%0.0
12-7Bucknell (167.0)PatA57-52L0%0.0
12-9UMass Lowell (283.0)AEH78-39W100%0.0
12-21Fairleigh Dickinson (269.0)NECH82-59W100%0.0
12-28St. John's (67.0)BEN65-59L0%0.0
12-30Colgate (256.0)PatA70-76W100%0.0
1-4St. Francis NY (190.0)NECH81-61W100%0.0
1-8Stony Brook (165.0)AEH68-63W100%0.0
1-18Cornell (334.0)IvyH71-61W100%0.0
1-25Cornell (334.0)IvyA58-74W100%0.0
1-31Yale (147.0)IvyA69-59L0%0.0
2-1Brown (229.0)IvyA64-56L0%0.0
2-7Princeton (122.0)IvyA52-53W100%0.0
2-8Penn (284.0)IvyA68-60L0%0.0
2-14Harvard (46.0)IvyH84-88L0%0.0
2-15Dartmouth (266.0)IvyH69-59W100%0.0
2-21Brown (229.0)IvyH70-68W100%0.0
2-23Yale (147.0)IvyH62-46W100%0.0
2-28Dartmouth (266.0)IvyA72-84W100%0.0
3-1Harvard (46.0)IvyA80-47L0%0.0
3-7Penn (284.0)IvyH74-55W100%0.0
3-8Princeton (122.0)IvyH64-74L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Columbia's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Columbia's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Columbia.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ColumbiaIvy26.2926.2959.6859.685.095.09
PrincetonIvy4.154.1572.0072.001.831.83
BrownIvy4.124.1252.0052.000.160.16
CornellIvy4.124.124.004.00-3.79-3.79
DartmouthIvy4.124.1241.6741.67-0.69-0.69
HarvardIvy4.074.0785.1985.192.872.87
PennIvy4.074.0726.9226.92-1.88-1.88
YaleIvy4.074.0752.0052.000.160.16
AmericanPat1.951.9564.5264.520.570.57
BucknellPat1.951.9551.7251.720.070.07
ColgatePat1.921.9241.3841.38-0.33-0.33
ArmyPat1.881.8848.2848.28-0.06-0.06
Stony BrookAE1.851.8570.9770.970.770.77
UMass LowellAE1.841.8434.6234.62-0.57-0.57
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC1.811.8132.1432.14-0.65-0.65
PortlandWCC1.811.8146.6746.67-0.12-0.12
St. Francis NYNEC1.781.7856.6756.670.240.24
St. John'sBE1.761.7661.2961.290.400.40
IdahoWAC1.721.7246.8846.88-0.11-0.11
North TexasCUSA1.721.7246.4346.43-0.12-0.12
Michigan St.B101.691.6975.7675.760.870.87
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC1.691.6918.5218.52-1.07-1.07
ElonSC1.671.6753.5753.570.120.12
ManhattanMAAC1.671.6777.4277.420.910.91
LafayettePat0.430.4333.3333.33-0.14-0.14
Boston UniversityPat0.360.3670.5970.590.150.15
BryantNEC0.360.3654.8454.840.030.03
AlbanyAE0.320.3256.2556.250.040.04
Loyola MDPat0.310.3134.4834.48-0.10-0.10
Holy CrossPat0.300.3059.3859.380.060.06
New HampshireAE0.300.3017.2417.24-0.20-0.20
VermontAE0.300.3066.6766.670.100.10
HartfordAE0.290.2951.5251.520.010.01
NavyPat0.280.2827.5927.59-0.12-0.12
BinghamtonAE0.270.2723.3323.33-0.14-0.14
St. Francis PANEC0.250.2532.2632.26-0.09-0.09
Central ConnecticutNEC0.230.2334.4834.48-0.07-0.07
Sacred HeartNEC0.230.2316.1316.13-0.16-0.16
MaineAE0.230.2317.8617.86-0.15-0.15
Penn St.B100.220.2246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.220.2250.0050.000.000.00
LehighPat0.220.2243.7543.75-0.03-0.03
NJITind0.210.2136.0036.00-0.06-0.06
ProvidenceBE0.200.2067.6567.650.070.07
MaristMAAC0.190.1938.7138.71-0.04-0.04
RutgersAmer0.180.1834.3834.38-0.06-0.06
RiceCUSA0.180.1817.8617.86-0.11-0.11
NiagaraMAAC0.170.1721.2121.21-0.10-0.10
WagnerNEC0.170.1760.0060.000.030.03
UMBCAE0.170.1727.5927.59-0.08-0.08
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.170.1745.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.170.1726.6726.67-0.08-0.08
IowaB100.170.1761.2961.290.040.04
MonmouthMAAC0.160.1634.3834.38-0.05-0.05
LongwoodBSth0.150.1514.2914.29-0.11-0.11
George MasonA100.150.1535.4835.48-0.04-0.04
HowardMEAC0.140.1419.3519.35-0.09-0.09
SyracuseACC0.140.1484.3884.380.100.10
FordhamA100.140.1432.2632.26-0.05-0.05
NorthwesternB100.140.1442.4242.42-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
Norfolk St.MEAC0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
PacificWCC0.120.1248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.110.1143.3343.33-0.02-0.02
SienaMAAC0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
La SalleA100.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.110.1187.5087.500.080.08
Robert MorrisNEC0.110.1161.7661.760.030.03
CanisiusMAAC0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
San FranciscoWCC0.110.1163.3363.330.030.03
MichiganB100.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
Rhode IslandA100.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
ColoradoP120.090.0967.6567.650.030.03
Western CarolinaSC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
TulaneCUSA0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
HofstraCAA0.080.0830.3030.30-0.03-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.080.0834.3834.38-0.03-0.03
BYUWCC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Seton HallBE0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.080.0821.8821.88-0.04-0.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
OklahomaB120.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
IonaMAAC0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
UMKCWAC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
IndianaB100.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
Ohio St.B100.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
WisconsinB100.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
IPFWSum0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
LouisvilleAmer0.060.0685.2985.290.040.04
MercerASun0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
RadfordBSth0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Saint LouisA100.060.0680.6580.650.040.04
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0670.9770.970.030.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
TempleAmer0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SC0.060.0619.2319.23-0.04-0.04
Boston CollegeACC0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
DavidsonSC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
DenverSum0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Georgia SouthernSC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.060.0677.7877.780.030.03
SamfordSC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
TCUB120.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
TulsaCUSA0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
The CitadelSC0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
PurdueB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
PepperdineWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
UC DavisBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
CreightonBE0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
DePaulBE0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
XavierBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0546.1546.15-0.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
SeattleWAC0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
DuquesneA100.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0383.8783.870.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0324.0024.00-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
DrexelCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
DukeACC0.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
East CarolinaCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0393.1093.100.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
UABCUSA0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
VMIBSth0.030.0355.5655.560.000.00
WoffordSC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
BradleyMVC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
DaytonA100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.030.033.573.57-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0341.1841.18-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
NebraskaB100.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
North FloridaASun0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.020.0269.7069.700.010.01