Dartmouth

Conference:	Ivy
Expected RPI:	294.0
Current RPI:	294
Expected SOS:	250
Current SOS:	250
Current Record:	8-19
Expected Record:	8-19
Current Conf Record:	5-9
Expected Conf Record:	5-9
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-8
Current OOC Record:	3-10
Expected OOC Record:	3-10
Expected OOC RPI:	297
Expected OOC SOS:	233

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
8-19	294.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Dartmouth.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Maine (267.0)	AE	H	67-54	W	100%
11-13	New Hampshire (293.0)	AE	H	58-72	L	0%
11-24	IUPU Fort Wayne (245.0)	Sum	H	66-70	L	0%
11-27	Bucknell (51.0)	Pat	A	62-49	L	0%
12-1	Longwood (332.0)	BSth	A	53-61	W	100%
12-4	Elon (174.0)	SC	A	71-49	L	0%
12-8	Holy Cross (251.0)	Pat	A	67-56	L	0%
12-12	Vermont (134.0)	AE	A	52-50	L	0%
12-15	Arizona St. (90.0)	P12	A	61-42	L	0%
12-22	Bryant (158.0)	NEC	A	79-66	L	0%
12-31	Boston College (113.0)	ACC	A	79-58	L	0%
1-5	Colgate (256.0)	Pat	H	62-78	L	0%
1-8	Army (205.0)	Pat	H	75-58	W	100%
1-12	Harvard (93.0)	Ivy	H	65-75	L	0%
1-26	Harvard (93.0)	Ivy	A	82-77	L	0%
2-1	Brown (241.0)	Ivy	H	50-62	L	0%
2-2	Yale (198.0)	Ivy	H	71-62	W	100%
2-8	Columbia (273.0)	Ivy	A	57-60	W	100%
2-10	Cornell (248.0)	Ivy	A	79-56	L	0%
2-15	Princeton (124.0)	Ivy	H	55-73	L	0%
2-16	Pennsylvania (280.0)	Ivy	H	57-67	L	0%
2-22	Yale (198.0)	Ivy	A	78-67	L	0%
2-23	Brown (241.0)	Ivy	A	59-50	L	0%
3-1	Pennsylvania (280.0)	Ivy	A	64-69	W	100%
3-2	Princeton (124.0)	Ivy	A	68-63	L	0%
3-8	Cornell (248.0)	Ivy	H	76-62	W	100%
3-9	Columbia (273.0)	Ivy	H	64-58	W	100%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Dartmouth's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Dartmouth's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Dartmouth.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Dartmouth	Ivy	26.32	26.32	29.75	29.75	-10.66	-10.66
Yale	Ivy	4.66	4.66	40.74	40.74	-0.86	-0.86
Columbia	Ivy	4.64	4.64	41.67	41.67	-0.77	-0.77
Cornell	Ivy	4.62	4.62	39.29	39.29	-0.99	-0.99
Brown	Ivy	4.59	4.59	40.00	40.00	-0.92	-0.92
Harvard	Ivy	4.58	4.58	64.00	64.00	1.28	1.28
Princeton	Ivy	4.55	4.55	56.00	56.00	0.55	0.55
Pennsylvania	Ivy	4.51	4.51	27.59	27.59	-2.02	-2.02
Holy Cross	Pat	2.33	2.33	37.93	37.93	-0.56	-0.56
Bucknell	Pat	2.27	2.27	83.87	83.87	1.53	1.53
Army	Pat	2.26	2.26	51.72	51.72	0.08	0.08
New Hampshire	AE	2.25	2.25	25.93	25.93	-1.09	-1.09
Colgate	Pat	2.23	2.23	32.26	32.26	-0.79	-0.79
Vermont	AE	2.15	2.15	64.52	64.52	0.62	0.62
Maine	AE	2.11	2.11	35.71	35.71	-0.60	-0.60
Bryant	NEC	2.08	2.08	62.07	62.07	0.50	0.50
Elon	SC	2.02	2.02	62.07	62.07	0.49	0.49
Boston College	ACC	2.02	2.02	46.88	46.88	-0.13	-0.13
Arizona St.	P12	1.91	1.91	62.50	62.50	0.48	0.48
Longwood	BSth	1.91	1.91	20.00	20.00	-1.15	-1.15
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	1.85	1.85	43.33	43.33	-0.25	-0.25
Binghamton	AE	0.47	0.47	6.90	6.90	-0.40	-0.40
Lafayette	Pat	0.43	0.43	54.55	54.55	0.04	0.04
American	Pat	0.40	0.40	33.33	33.33	-0.13	-0.13
Lehigh	Pat	0.36	0.36	68.97	68.97	0.14	0.14
Navy	Pat	0.36	0.36	23.33	23.33	-0.19	-0.19
Albany	AE	0.35	0.35	70.59	70.59	0.14	0.14
Boston University	AE	0.32	0.32	58.62	58.62	0.05	0.05
Hartford	AE	0.31	0.31	56.67	56.67	0.04	0.04
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.28	0.28	23.33	23.33	-0.15	-0.15
Stony Brook	AE	0.25	0.25	76.67	76.67	0.13	0.13
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.23	0.23	31.03	31.03	-0.09	-0.09
Fordham	A10	0.20	0.20	22.58	22.58	-0.11	-0.11
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.19	0.19	58.06	58.06	0.03	0.03
Marist	MAAC	0.19	0.19	32.26	32.26	-0.07	-0.07
Wagner	NEC	0.19	0.19	61.29	61.29	0.04	0.04
Providence	BE	0.19	0.19	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.19	0.19	40.00	40.00	-0.04	-0.04
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.18	0.18	17.24	17.24	-0.12	-0.12
Penn St.	B10	0.18	0.18	32.26	32.26	-0.06	-0.06
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.16	0.16	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.15	0.15	48.00	48.00	-0.01	-0.01
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.15	0.15	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.15	0.15	39.29	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
Duke	ACC	0.15	0.15	84.38	84.38	0.10	0.10
Manhattan	MAAC	0.14	0.14	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Furman	SC	0.13	0.13	17.24	17.24	-0.09	-0.09
Buffalo	MAC	0.13	0.13	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
St. Mary's	WCC	0.13	0.13	81.25	81.25	0.08	0.08
Villanova	BE	0.13	0.13	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Connecticut	BE	0.13	0.13	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Northeastern	CAA	0.13	0.13	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Drexel	CAA	0.13	0.13	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Niagara	MAAC	0.13	0.13	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Western Illinois	Sum	0.12	0.12	71.43	71.43	0.05	0.05
Delaware	CAA	0.12	0.12	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
College of Charleston	SC	0.12	0.12	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Long Island	NEC	0.10	0.10	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.10	0.10	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Notre Dame	BE	0.10	0.10	73.53	73.53	0.05	0.05
Kent St.	MAC	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.10	0.10	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
Syracuse	BE	0.10	0.10	74.29	74.29	0.05	0.05
California	P12	0.10	0.10	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.09	0.09	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.09	0.09	24.14	24.14	-0.05	-0.05
Presbyterian	BSth	0.09	0.09	17.24	17.24	-0.06	-0.06
Butler	A10	0.09	0.09	75.76	75.76	0.05	0.05
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.09	0.09	22.58	22.58	-0.05	-0.05
Oakland	Sum	0.09	0.09	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.09	0.09	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
La Salle	A10	0.09	0.09	70.00	70.00	0.04	0.04
Miami FL	ACC	0.08	0.08	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
UCLA	P12	0.08	0.08	73.53	73.53	0.04	0.04
Akron	MAC	0.07	0.07	80.65	80.65	0.04	0.04
Memphis	CUSA	0.07	0.07	88.24	88.24	0.05	0.05
Northwestern	B10	0.07	0.07	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.07	0.07	13.79	13.79	-0.05	-0.05
Rider	MAAC	0.07	0.07	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.07	0.07	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Florida	SEC	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Iowa St.	B12	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Nevada	MWC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Samford	SC	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.06	0.06	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Western Carolina	SC	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.06	0.06	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Wofford	SC	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Florida St.	ACC	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Fairfield	MAAC	0.06	0.06	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
High Point	BSth	0.06	0.06	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
IUPUI	Sum	0.06	0.06	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Liberty	BSth	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.06	0.06	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
NC Asheville	BSth	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Radford	BSth	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
South Dakota	Sum	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Temple	A10	0.06	0.06	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Canisius	MAAC	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.06	0.06	28.12	28.12	-0.03	-0.03
Creighton	MVC	0.06	0.06	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.06	0.06	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Arizona	P12	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Clemson	ACC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado	P12	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Maryland	ACC	0.06	0.06	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.06	0.06	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Southern California	P12	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Stanford	P12	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Utah	P12	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Washington	P12	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.06	0.06	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Davidson	SC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia Southern	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Monmouth	NEC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Old Dominion	CAA	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.03	0.03	21.43	21.43	-0.02	-0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.03	0.03	42.31	42.31	-0.00	-0.00
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	10.00	10.00	-0.02	-0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Valparaiso	Horz	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.02	0.02
Winthrop	BSth	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Illinois	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Towson	CAA	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Baylor	B12	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Florida International	SB	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Oregon	P12	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	44.44	44.44	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01