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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Dartmouth

Conference:Ivy
Expected RPI:310.5
Current RPI:334
Expected SOS:237
Current SOS:264
Current Record:0-5
Expected Record:6-21
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:4-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-9
Current OOC Record:0-5
Expected OOC Record:3-10
Expected OOC RPI:314
Expected OOC SOS:244



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-13179.50.02%
13-14197.70.20%
12-15217.60.48%
11-16238.61.41%
10-17258.84.00%
9-18276.47.61%
8-19292.913.22%
7-20307.118.56%
6-21318.620.35%
5-22327.916.12%
4-23335.010.92%
3-24340.25.07%
2-25343.81.77%
1-26347.20.25%
0-27350.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Dartmouth.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Rhode Island (33.6)A10A84-61L0%0.0
11-15Fairfield (134.7)MAACH62-79L0%0.0
11-26Marist (236.1)MAACH69-75L0%0.0
11-28Longwood (325.2)BSthA86-80L0%0.0
11-30Old Dominion (97.6)CUSAA59-47L0%0.0
12-3Boston College (245.5)ACCA0-022%-9.2
12-7Vermont (91.3)AEA0-09%-16.4
12-10Maine (310.8)AEH0-069%5.8
12-13Hartford (335.7)AEA0-052%0.6
12-18LIU Brooklyn (214.2)NECA0-028%-7.0
12-22Bryant (194.6)NECA0-025%-8.2
12-31New Hampshire (156.1)AEH0-037%-3.8
1-3Cal St. Bakersfield (140.8)WACH0-027%-7.4
1-7Harvard (224.3)IvyH0-033%-5.3
1-21Harvard (224.3)IvyA0-017%-11.5
1-27Columbia (253.3)IvyA0-025%-7.9
1-28Cornell (260.9)IvyA0-032%-5.5
2-3Princeton (95.0)IvyH0-016%-11.9
2-4Penn (138.5)IvyH0-022%-9.1
2-10Yale (103.3)IvyA0-07%-17.3
2-11Brown (272.3)IvyA0-031%-6.1
2-17Cornell (260.9)IvyH0-052%0.7
2-18Columbia (253.3)IvyH0-044%-1.8
2-24Brown (272.3)IvyH0-050%0.1
2-25Yale (103.3)IvyH0-018%-11.1
3-3Penn (138.5)IvyA0-010%-15.2
3-4Princeton (95.0)IvyA0-07%-18.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Dartmouth's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Dartmouth's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Dartmouth.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DartmouthIvy29.3526.390.0023.71-29.35-13.87
BrownIvy1.434.6850.0041.100.00-0.83
YaleIvy0.004.6333.3362.20-0.001.13
HarvardIvy0.004.630.0040.25-0.00-0.90
PennIvy0.004.5840.0055.92-0.000.54
ColumbiaIvy0.004.5742.8640.58-0.00-0.86
CornellIvy0.004.5528.5728.46-0.00-1.96
PrincetonIvy0.004.5425.0061.89-0.001.08
MaineAE1.252.2416.6725.41-0.83-1.10
VermontAE0.712.2262.5070.950.180.93
HartfordAE0.002.1812.5021.70-0.00-1.23
BryantNEC0.002.1628.5749.34-0.00-0.03
New HampshireAE0.002.0750.0057.290.000.30
MaristMAAC10.712.0433.3333.54-3.57-0.67
FairfieldMAAC10.002.0180.0060.736.000.43
Boston CollegeACC0.001.9950.0025.570.00-0.97
Rhode IslandA1010.711.9866.6769.313.570.76
LIU BrooklynNEC0.001.9783.3357.500.000.30
LongwoodBSth10.001.880.0021.76-10.00-1.06
Old DominionCUSA10.001.8860.0064.632.000.55
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.001.8550.0059.130.000.34
AlbanyAE0.000.5650.0060.380.000.12
Stony BrookAE0.000.4216.6733.82-0.00-0.14
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.3940.0037.65-0.00-0.10
UMass LowellAE0.710.3825.0040.81-0.36-0.07
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.3516.6734.31-0.00-0.11
BinghamtonAE0.000.3242.8640.94-0.00-0.06
Sacred HeartNEC0.830.2942.8638.05-0.12-0.07
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.2750.0046.780.00-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.000.2671.4371.570.000.11
UMBCAE0.000.2580.0055.340.000.03
NiagaraMAAC0.000.2516.6727.03-0.00-0.12
NortheasternCAA0.000.2457.1448.240.00-0.01
SienaMAAC0.000.2228.5750.51-0.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.2271.4356.280.000.03
LafayettePat0.000.2133.3331.87-0.00-0.08
HoustonAmer0.000.2083.3376.370.000.11
NavyPat0.000.2028.5743.62-0.00-0.03
Holy CrossPat0.000.2042.8647.69-0.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1925.0039.28-0.00-0.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.1916.6729.36-0.00-0.08
HowardMEAC0.000.180.0038.26-0.00-0.04
TempleAmer0.000.1771.4363.570.000.05
Miami FLACC0.000.1771.4365.740.000.05
St. Francis PANEC1.250.1640.0043.86-0.25-0.02
WagnerNEC0.830.1633.3353.85-0.280.01
RiderMAAC0.830.1550.0047.990.00-0.01
LehighPat0.000.1433.3367.01-0.000.05
ColgatePat0.000.1420.0041.31-0.00-0.02
LibertyBSth0.000.1440.0050.71-0.000.00
MassachusettsA100.000.1483.3358.080.000.02
George MasonA100.000.1357.1442.940.00-0.02
VCUA100.000.1385.7178.150.000.07
La SalleA100.000.1360.0051.780.000.00
SyracuseACC0.000.1366.6770.140.000.05
CanisiusMAAC0.000.1233.3341.52-0.00-0.02
IonaMAAC0.000.1260.0070.140.000.05
ManhattanMAAC0.000.1233.3338.19-0.00-0.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.1260.0052.760.000.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.1220.0034.22-0.00-0.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.1212.5048.98-0.00-0.00
DukeACC1.430.1287.5078.681.070.07
BYUWCC0.000.1171.4368.660.000.04
FordhamA100.000.1057.1443.680.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.1057.1444.160.00-0.01
ArmyPat0.830.1033.3345.58-0.28-0.01
BucknellPat0.000.1075.0067.660.000.04
WinthropBSth0.000.1060.0070.500.000.04
HofstraCAA0.000.1057.1440.550.00-0.02
DelawareCAA0.000.1040.0040.65-0.00-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.710.1050.0056.260.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.1085.7155.550.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.10100.0082.550.000.07
DrexelCAA0.000.1042.8636.82-0.00-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.710.1085.7180.960.510.06
Boston UniversityPat0.000.1050.0053.530.000.01
DavidsonA100.000.0983.3368.880.000.03
North TexasCUSA0.000.0940.0030.80-0.00-0.04
RichmondA100.830.0957.1448.600.12-0.00
Notre DameACC0.000.09100.0075.010.000.05
Virginia TechACC0.000.0985.7162.920.000.02
StanfordP120.000.0775.0059.100.000.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0733.3335.92-0.00-0.02
CaliforniaP120.000.0783.3363.610.000.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.070.0017.30-0.00-0.05
HamptonMEAC0.000.070.0034.18-0.00-0.02
HawaiiBW0.000.0750.0050.940.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0771.4368.100.000.03
SeattleWAC0.000.0720.0042.63-0.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.000.0771.4354.520.000.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.070.0033.44-0.00-0.02
UMKCWAC0.000.0771.4356.050.000.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0725.0024.28-0.00-0.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0760.0058.950.000.01
WashingtonP120.000.0757.1452.630.000.00
CampbellBSth0.000.0725.0033.54-0.00-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0725.0038.72-0.00-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0720.0048.38-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.000.0750.0051.260.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0733.3327.13-0.00-0.03
RadfordBSth0.000.0733.3336.31-0.00-0.02
TroySB0.000.0733.3332.23-0.00-0.02
UCFAmer0.000.0783.3374.620.000.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0750.0064.840.000.02
USCP120.000.07100.0075.380.000.03
VillanovaBE0.000.07100.0083.120.000.05
WyomingMWC0.000.0760.0048.590.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0716.6737.09-0.00-0.02
NJITASun0.000.0742.8650.32-0.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.830.070.0028.15-0.83-0.03
Loyola MDPat0.830.0633.3340.49-0.28-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0671.4350.570.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0666.6751.090.000.00
DaytonA100.000.0666.6772.440.000.03
MarshallCUSA0.000.0683.3359.600.000.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0685.7169.010.000.02
St. John'sBE0.830.0628.5733.92-0.36-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0642.8634.17-0.00-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.000.0640.0055.44-0.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.830.0685.7175.950.600.03
TowsonCAA0.000.0650.0054.490.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0671.4352.370.000.00
ArizonaP120.000.0485.7170.990.000.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0460.0039.610.00-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0433.3353.29-0.000.00
North FloridaASun0.000.0414.2931.71-0.00-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0414.2928.15-0.00-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.000.0425.0040.37-0.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0457.1469.300.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0471.4355.750.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0325.0053.29-0.000.00
AmericanPat0.000.0316.6735.65-0.00-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0350.0052.330.000.00
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0076.650.000.02
DetroitHorz0.000.030.0019.51-0.00-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd1.250.0325.0056.71-0.620.00
Texas TechB120.000.0385.7163.780.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0383.3380.550.000.02
BelmontOVC0.710.0340.0061.37-0.140.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0340.0050.91-0.000.00
ButlerBE0.000.03100.0075.690.000.02
DuquesneA100.000.0337.5034.65-0.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0350.0055.850.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0366.6751.460.000.00
FIUCUSA0.000.0316.6733.69-0.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0320.0034.39-0.00-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0360.0067.410.000.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.03100.0091.060.000.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.030.0037.92-0.00-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0320.0032.60-0.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0340.0067.95-0.000.01
LSUSEC0.830.0371.4349.770.36-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0385.7173.010.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0385.7165.670.000.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0366.6775.370.000.02
NorthwesternB100.000.0371.4366.220.000.01
OhioMAC0.000.0380.0068.320.000.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0333.3326.75-0.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.03100.0080.780.000.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0333.3323.33-0.00-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.0366.6770.740.000.01
UABCUSA0.000.0357.1461.940.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0325.0043.26-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0328.5728.46-0.00-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.710.0385.7174.430.510.02
WoffordSC0.000.030.0033.58-0.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0320.0036.00-0.00-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0383.3355.200.000.00
ClemsonACC0.000.0366.6753.460.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.0385.7162.410.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0366.6739.720.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0357.1459.480.000.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0385.7155.890.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0034.23-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0342.8637.25-0.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0385.7180.010.000.02
RutgersB100.000.0383.3344.770.00-0.00