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Through games of Feb 5, 2016.


Dartmouth

Conference:Ivy
Expected RPI:290.3
Current RPI:318
Expected SOS:230
Current SOS:312
Current Record:6-12
Expected Record:9-18
Current Conf Record:1-4
Expected Conf Record:4-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-6
Current OOC Record:5-8
Expected OOC Record:5-8
Expected OOC RPI:288
Expected OOC SOS:310



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-14209.60.09%
12-15226.90.92%
11-16246.55.17%
10-17266.916.75%
9-18285.930.32%
8-19302.430.17%
7-20315.813.83%
6-21326.02.74%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Dartmouth.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Seton Hall (53.8)BEA84-67L0%0.0
11-17Marist (318.9)MAACA73-63L0%0.0
11-29LIU Brooklyn (274.6)NECH79-56W100%0.0
12-2Vermont (145.3)AEH63-68L0%0.0
12-5Hartford (313.9)AEH74-65W100%0.0
12-9Maine (289.9)AEA69-79W100%0.0
12-12Stanford (80.9)P12A64-50L0%0.0
12-14Cal St. Bakersfield (144.1)WACA69-62L0%0.0
12-19New Hampshire (205.6)AEA76-56L0%0.0
12-22Longwood (327.1)BSthH78-54W100%0.0
12-31Bryant (312.7)NECH60-62L0%0.0
1-4Fairfield (179.2)MAACA97-85L0%0.0
1-9Harvard (195.2)IvyA77-70L0%0.0
1-12Canisius (224.8)MAACH80-69W100%0.0
1-23Harvard (195.2)IvyH63-50W100%0.0
1-29Columbia (134.4)IvyH60-77L0%0.0
1-30Cornell (202.2)IvyH73-77L0%0.0
2-5Penn (286.4)IvyA71-64L0%0.0
2-6Princeton (55.9)IvyA0-06%-17.3
2-12Yale (59.5)IvyH0-016%-10.9
2-13Brown (288.3)IvyH0-066%4.4
2-19Cornell (202.2)IvyA0-038%-3.4
2-20Columbia (134.4)IvyA0-015%-11.5
2-26Brown (288.3)IvyA0-042%-2.2
2-27Yale (59.5)IvyA0-05%-17.5
3-4Penn (286.4)IvyH0-061%3.1
3-5Princeton (55.9)IvyH0-016%-10.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Dartmouth's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Dartmouth's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Dartmouth.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DartmouthIvy26.3626.3629.7329.72-10.69-10.69
BrownIvy0.424.6433.3330.68-0.14-1.79
YaleIvy0.394.6472.2272.510.172.09
ColumbiaIvy3.204.5963.1662.210.841.12
HarvardIvy5.824.5835.2940.80-1.71-0.84
CornellIvy3.124.5441.1837.94-0.55-1.10
PennIvy2.784.5131.2531.92-1.04-1.63
PrincetonIvy0.234.5170.5973.340.092.11
VermontAE3.252.2154.5556.940.300.31
MaineAE3.162.1838.1036.85-0.75-0.57
BryantNEC3.062.1522.7325.08-1.67-1.07
New HampshireAE3.022.1450.0049.640.00-0.02
HartfordAE2.972.1127.2727.38-1.35-0.96
FairfieldMAAC2.972.1150.0051.360.000.06
MaristMAAC2.962.0715.0018.59-2.07-1.30
CanisiusMAAC2.982.0543.4845.31-0.39-0.19
LongwoodBSth2.911.9520.0023.18-1.75-1.04
LIU BrooklynNEC2.901.9552.3852.670.140.10
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC2.781.8563.1666.210.730.60
Seton HallBE2.781.8571.4367.551.190.65
StanfordP122.781.8550.0045.760.00-0.16
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.450.4538.1041.92-0.11-0.07
AlbanyAE0.400.4373.9175.010.190.21
Central ConnecticutNEC0.390.3913.6413.80-0.28-0.29
BinghamtonAE0.420.3922.7326.19-0.23-0.19
Stony BrookAE0.330.3980.0082.460.200.25
UMass LowellAE0.460.3633.3332.88-0.15-0.12
NiagaraMAAC0.370.3525.0025.48-0.18-0.17
SienaMAAC0.380.3266.6767.290.130.11
UMBCAE0.320.2920.8325.01-0.19-0.14
RiderMAAC0.310.2841.6743.51-0.05-0.04
QuinnipiacMAAC0.430.2838.1037.53-0.10-0.07
Holy CrossPat0.410.2640.9139.70-0.07-0.05
ProvidenceBE0.330.2678.2671.960.190.11
Robert MorrisNEC0.270.2625.0029.52-0.14-0.11
Sacred HeartNEC0.240.2631.8235.16-0.09-0.08
MonmouthMAAC0.380.2579.1780.770.220.16
ManhattanMAAC0.310.2545.0043.19-0.03-0.03
WagnerNEC0.310.2261.9063.360.070.06
LafayettePat0.160.2123.8125.26-0.08-0.10
SMUAmer0.150.2090.4885.550.120.15
Saint Joseph'sA100.150.2081.8277.440.100.11
HowardMEAC0.290.2040.0042.53-0.06-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.190.1952.3853.820.010.01
IonaMAAC0.310.1959.0959.680.060.04
VillanovaBE0.280.1686.3685.330.200.12
BucknellPat0.130.1652.3856.770.010.02
LehighPat0.130.1630.0036.08-0.05-0.05
GeorgetownBE0.060.1656.5253.460.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.180.1634.7841.59-0.06-0.03
LibertyBSth0.070.1331.8232.92-0.02-0.05
NJITASun0.070.1352.1754.520.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.280.1331.8226.61-0.10-0.06
Boston UniversityPat0.280.1352.1754.400.010.01
WoffordSC0.220.1338.1043.35-0.05-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.190.1341.6746.85-0.03-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.180.1347.6249.35-0.01-0.00
ColgatePat0.150.1042.8643.53-0.02-0.01
Arizona St.P120.140.1052.1750.240.010.00
George MasonA100.150.1036.3635.33-0.04-0.03
USCP120.000.1078.2673.130.000.05
WashingtonP120.080.1068.1862.190.030.02
DukeACC0.060.1072.7369.920.030.04
MassachusettsA100.210.1042.8639.84-0.03-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.210.1047.8348.69-0.01-0.00
DelawareCAA0.140.1022.7323.64-0.07-0.05
DePaulBE0.140.0936.3634.95-0.04-0.03
ArmyPat0.190.0954.5556.020.020.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.130.0927.2732.84-0.06-0.03
NorthwesternB100.130.0966.6763.480.040.03
MarquetteBE0.190.0965.2256.530.060.01
Chicago St.WAC0.070.074.557.91-0.06-0.06
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0781.8281.010.040.04
IdahoBSky0.140.0757.1457.940.020.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.0763.6468.210.020.03
SeattleWAC0.070.0745.0042.81-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.140.0730.0034.84-0.06-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.070.0715.0015.65-0.05-0.05
Utah ValleyWAC0.070.0735.0035.36-0.02-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.140.0785.0085.230.100.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0728.5734.73-0.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0710.0014.87-0.07-0.05
DrexelCAA0.080.0714.2918.63-0.06-0.04
Georgia TechACC0.080.0754.5552.750.010.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0760.0061.350.000.02
IllinoisB100.000.0747.8344.51-0.00-0.01
La SalleA100.080.0721.0520.91-0.05-0.04
LipscombASun0.000.0721.7427.64-0.00-0.03
MarylandB100.000.0786.9681.770.000.04
Miami FLACC0.000.0780.9575.640.000.04
NavyPat0.080.0765.2265.230.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0738.1047.51-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.080.0780.0070.290.050.03
Rhode IslandA100.000.0754.5555.990.000.01
SyracuseACC0.080.0766.6762.710.030.02
TempleAmer0.080.0761.9058.420.020.01
ConnecticutAmer0.140.0772.7372.440.060.03
ArizonaP120.070.0778.2677.230.040.04
AuburnSEC0.150.0742.8637.19-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.150.0769.5773.030.060.03
CaliforniaP120.070.0763.6461.810.020.02
CampbellBSth0.130.0730.0030.38-0.05-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0725.0029.29-0.04-0.03
ColoradoP120.150.0772.7366.970.070.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0742.8647.27-0.01-0.00
High PointBSth0.070.0757.8961.480.010.02
KansasB120.150.0780.9577.000.090.04
OklahomaB120.150.0790.4884.890.120.05
OregonP120.070.0781.8278.210.050.04
Oregon St.P120.070.0760.0054.590.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.070.0726.3227.34-0.03-0.03
RadfordBSth0.070.0752.3853.620.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.130.0763.6465.480.040.02
UtahP120.150.0772.7368.550.070.02
WinthropBSth0.070.0765.0063.370.020.02
FordhamA100.130.0657.8954.300.020.01
Kansas St.B120.070.0659.0955.550.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.120.0631.8234.36-0.04-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.120.0666.6761.680.040.01
ButlerBE0.000.0668.1866.490.000.02
CreightonBE0.130.0660.8759.050.030.01
St. John'sBE0.060.0627.2724.41-0.03-0.03
XavierBE0.060.0690.9184.430.050.04
BuffaloMAC0.120.0657.1457.510.020.01
St. BonaventureA100.120.0670.0069.070.050.02
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0460.0057.290.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0421.0529.16-0.04-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.045.2610.18-0.06-0.03
Portland St.BSky0.070.0433.3339.27-0.02-0.01
South DakotaSum0.070.0439.1339.48-0.02-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.070.0447.8343.92-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.070.0440.9140.46-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.070.0333.3333.55-0.02-0.01
AmericanPat0.070.0331.8232.71-0.03-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.070.0350.0054.850.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.070.0361.9058.190.020.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.070.0357.8957.330.010.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0350.0046.870.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.070.0357.1457.880.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0350.0045.730.00-0.00
RichmondA100.070.0352.3853.680.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.070.0344.4448.52-0.01-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0347.6252.96-0.000.00
TexasB120.070.0368.1861.780.030.01
UCLAP120.000.0356.5253.350.000.00
Washington St.P120.000.0338.1033.45-0.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.060.0342.8645.93-0.01-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0353.3355.180.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0347.6247.86-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0326.3236.93-0.03-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0347.3750.51-0.000.00
BradleyMVC0.060.038.709.77-0.05-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0338.8943.22-0.01-0.00
FloridaSEC0.060.0368.1867.800.020.01
George WashingtonA100.060.0377.2771.670.030.01
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0360.0056.080.010.00
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0342.8651.33-0.010.00
LouisvilleACC0.060.0381.8277.490.040.02
MichiganB100.060.0372.7367.980.030.01
MississippiSEC0.060.0363.6456.050.020.00
North CarolinaACC0.060.0386.3680.660.040.02
North FloridaASun0.060.0368.1869.350.020.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.034.7614.01-0.05-0.02
PurdueB100.060.0382.6178.230.040.02
RutgersB100.060.0322.7320.68-0.03-0.02
Saint LouisA100.060.0338.1033.38-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.060.0320.8320.11-0.04-0.02
TroySB0.060.0320.0023.76-0.04-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0340.0049.74-0.01-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.060.0376.1979.640.030.02
HofstraCAA0.060.0368.1865.420.020.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0340.0044.95-0.01-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0310.0015.28-0.05-0.02
Penn St.B100.060.0347.8343.63-0.00-0.00