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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Dartmouth

Conference:Ivy
Expected RPI:266.0
Current RPI:266
Expected SOS:244
Current SOS:244
Current Record:10-16
Expected Record:10-16
Current Conf Record:5-9
Expected Conf Record:5-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-5
Current OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:274
Expected OOC SOS:312



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-16266.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Dartmouth.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Bryant (177.0)NECH77-87L0%0.0
11-16UMass Lowell (283.0)AEH77-59W100%0.0
12-1Maine (330.0)AEA56-81W100%0.0
12-5Northern Illinois (217.0)MACA64-57L0%0.0
12-7IPFW (115.0)SumA80-64L0%0.0
12-10Illinois (70.0)B10A72-65L0%0.0
12-14Jacksonville St. (317.0)OVCH76-46W100%0.0
12-18New Hampshire (340.0)AEA48-62W100%0.0
12-21Longwood (337.0)BSthH84-64W100%0.0
1-4Vermont (101.0)AEH53-62L0%0.0
1-7Hartford (234.0)AEH56-68L0%0.0
1-11Harvard (46.0)IvyA61-45L0%0.0
1-18St. John's (67.0)BEA69-55L0%0.0
1-26Harvard (46.0)IvyH50-80L0%0.0
1-31Penn (284.0)IvyH67-58W100%0.0
2-1Princeton (122.0)IvyH78-69W100%0.0
2-7Yale (147.0)IvyH54-67L0%0.0
2-8Brown (229.0)IvyH62-75L0%0.0
2-14Cornell (334.0)IvyA70-67L0%0.0
2-15Columbia (130.0)IvyA69-59L0%0.0
2-21Princeton (122.0)IvyA67-57L0%0.0
2-22Penn (284.0)IvyA74-65L0%0.0
2-28Columbia (130.0)IvyH72-84L0%0.0
3-1Cornell (334.0)IvyH87-78W100%0.0
3-7Brown (229.0)IvyA68-75W100%0.0
3-8Yale (147.0)IvyA61-69W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Dartmouth's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Dartmouth's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Dartmouth.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DartmouthIvy26.3526.3537.7037.70-6.48-6.48
BrownIvy4.814.8152.0052.000.190.19
YaleIvy4.804.8052.0052.000.190.19
ColumbiaIvy4.754.7557.1457.140.680.68
HarvardIvy4.744.7485.1985.193.343.34
PennIvy4.684.6826.9226.92-2.16-2.16
CornellIvy4.674.670.000.00-4.67-4.67
PrincetonIvy4.674.6772.0072.002.062.06
New HampshireAE2.392.3917.8617.86-1.54-1.54
VermontAE2.392.3965.5265.520.740.74
UMass LowellAE2.322.3234.6234.62-0.71-0.71
HartfordAE2.262.2650.0050.000.000.00
BryantNEC2.202.2053.3353.330.150.15
MaineAE2.182.1818.5218.52-1.37-1.37
LongwoodBSth2.022.0214.8114.81-1.42-1.42
St. John'sBE2.022.0261.2961.290.460.46
IllinoisB101.991.9956.2556.250.250.25
IPFWSum1.951.9566.6766.670.650.65
Jacksonville St.OVC1.951.9528.5728.57-0.84-0.84
Northern IllinoisMAC1.921.9243.3343.33-0.26-0.26
BinghamtonAE0.530.5323.3323.33-0.28-0.28
Stony BrookAE0.530.5368.7568.750.200.20
AlbanyAE0.500.5056.2556.250.060.06
UMBCAE0.330.3327.5927.59-0.15-0.15
ProvidenceBE0.300.3067.6567.650.110.11
Central ConnecticutNEC0.270.2734.4834.48-0.08-0.08
Sacred HeartNEC0.270.2716.1316.13-0.18-0.18
Penn St.B100.260.2646.8846.88-0.02-0.02
NJITind0.240.2436.0036.00-0.07-0.07
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.230.2331.0331.03-0.09-0.09
LafayettePat0.210.2133.3333.33-0.07-0.07
Rhode IslandA100.170.1741.9441.94-0.03-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.170.1776.4776.470.090.09
BucknellPat0.170.1753.3353.330.010.01
WagnerNEC0.160.1660.0060.000.030.03
Holy CrossPat0.160.1659.3859.380.030.03
RutgersAmer0.140.1434.3834.38-0.04-0.04
George MasonA100.140.1435.4835.48-0.04-0.04
LibertyBSth0.140.1427.5927.59-0.06-0.06
NiagaraMAAC0.140.1421.2121.21-0.08-0.08
RadfordBSth0.140.1460.0060.000.030.03
RiceCUSA0.140.1417.8617.86-0.09-0.09
AmericanPat0.140.1462.5062.500.030.03
ColgatePat0.140.1440.0040.00-0.03-0.03
PortlandWCC0.140.1448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.130.1332.2632.26-0.05-0.05
Western MichiganMAC0.130.1370.9770.970.060.06
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.130.1370.9770.970.060.06
ButlerBE0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
VillanovaBE0.130.1387.5087.500.100.10
Central MichiganMAC0.130.1327.5927.59-0.06-0.06
DenverSum0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
IowaB100.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.120.1278.5778.570.070.07
Michigan St.B100.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
St. BonaventureA100.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
SienaMAAC0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
SyracuseACC0.100.1084.3884.380.070.07
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.1072.7372.730.050.05
TCUB120.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
LouisvilleAmer0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
NorthwesternB100.100.1042.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
ArmyPat0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.100.1032.2632.26-0.03-0.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.100.1032.1432.14-0.03-0.03
MichiganB100.090.0975.7675.760.050.05
BradleyMVC0.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
IUPUISum0.090.0910.3410.34-0.07-0.07
Nebraska OmahaSum0.090.0948.1548.15-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.090.0957.1457.140.010.01
NebraskaB100.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
Ohio St.B100.090.0973.5373.530.040.04
WisconsinB100.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
IndianaB100.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
MercerASun0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
PacificWCC0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.070.0780.6580.650.040.04
DuquesneA100.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.070.0732.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
High PointBSth0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
MaristMAAC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
VMIBSth0.070.0755.5655.560.010.01
BelmontOVC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
ColoradoP120.070.0767.6567.650.020.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Green BayHorz0.070.0777.7877.780.040.04
HowardMEAC0.070.0719.3519.35-0.04-0.04
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0713.7913.79-0.05-0.05
OhioMAC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
ElonSC0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
IdahoWAC0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0678.1278.120.040.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
North TexasCUSA0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
AuburnSEC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.060.0610.7110.71-0.05-0.05
BuffaloMAC0.060.0664.2964.290.020.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0661.7661.760.010.01
South DakotaSum0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.060.0681.2581.250.040.04
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
CreightonBE0.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
DePaulBE0.060.0636.3636.36-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Seton HallBE0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
XavierBE0.060.0662.5062.500.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.040.0481.8281.820.020.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0375.0075.000.020.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0313.3313.33-0.03-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0341.1841.18-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0359.2659.260.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
DukeACC0.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
AkronMAC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Iowa St.B120.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
LehighPat0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0375.0075.000.020.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
NavyPat0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
UICHorz0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
OregonP120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
PurdueB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
WashingtonP120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00