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Through games of Dec 18, 2014.


Dartmouth

Conference:Ivy
Expected RPI:184.4
Current RPI:222
Expected SOS:186
Current SOS:279
Current Record:4-5
Expected Record:13-15
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-5
Current OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC Record:7-7
Expected OOC RPI:202
Expected OOC SOS:280



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-871.80.05%
19-985.10.39%
18-1098.61.23%
17-11115.63.36%
16-12130.97.97%
15-13149.714.08%
14-14168.819.16%
13-15189.519.89%
12-16211.316.45%
11-17232.29.86%
10-18252.95.18%
9-19273.01.80%
8-20286.40.44%
7-21300.60.12%
6-22323.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Dartmouth.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15St. Bonaventure (102.8)A10A77-57L0%0.0
11-19Hartford (212.5)AEA53-48L0%0.0
11-28IPFW (179.6)SumH68-67W100%0.0
11-30New Hampshire (158.0)AEH63-65L0%0.0
12-3Longwood (317.4)BSthA74-73L0%0.0
12-6Maine (324.1)AEH74-51W100%0.0
12-10UMass Lowell (184.4)AEA48-69W100%0.0
12-14Jacksonville St. (264.1)OVCA79-67L0%0.0
12-16Mercer (245.5)SCA51-67W100%0.0
12-19Northern Illinois (269.3)MACH0-082%10.5
12-22Penn St. (101.0)B10A0-028%-7.0
12-31Bryant (199.6)NECA0-044%-1.8
1-10Harvard (50.6)IvyH0-037%-3.9
1-14Vermont (175.2)AEA0-032%-5.6
1-17NJIT (233.3)indH0-078%9.2
1-24Harvard (50.6)IvyA0-014%-12.6
1-30Penn (270.1)IvyA0-052%0.5
1-31Princeton (236.6)IvyA0-043%-2.0
2-6Yale (60.2)IvyA0-021%-9.6
2-7Brown (246.3)IvyA0-054%1.3
2-13Cornell (181.7)IvyH0-066%4.9
2-14Columbia (100.8)IvyH0-046%-1.1
2-20Princeton (236.6)IvyH0-072%6.7
2-21Penn (270.1)IvyH0-078%9.2
2-27Columbia (100.8)IvyA0-020%-9.9
2-28Cornell (181.7)IvyA0-037%-3.9
3-6Brown (246.3)IvyH0-080%10.0
3-7Yale (60.2)IvyH0-047%-0.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Dartmouth's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Dartmouth's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Dartmouth.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DartmouthIvy27.9726.3351.2850.440.720.23
YaleIvy0.284.4772.7367.250.131.54
BrownIvy0.004.4340.0033.87-0.00-1.43
CornellIvy0.314.4055.5648.230.03-0.16
HarvardIvy0.004.3985.7172.830.002.00
PrincetonIvy0.004.3427.2737.49-0.00-1.09
PennIvy0.004.3337.5032.85-0.00-1.49
ColumbiaIvy0.004.3362.5064.600.001.26
UMass LowellAE5.562.2462.5056.371.390.28
VermontAE0.282.2044.4457.45-0.030.33
MaineAE5.562.1512.5021.84-4.17-1.21
New HampshireAE5.562.1350.0063.260.000.57
HartfordAE5.562.1044.4449.24-0.62-0.03
BryantNEC0.402.0428.5746.92-0.17-0.13
NJITind0.931.9736.3641.79-0.25-0.32
Penn St.B100.001.8590.9153.230.000.12
Northern IllinoisMAC0.311.8250.0033.140.00-0.61
IPFWSum5.561.7966.6759.181.850.33
Jacksonville St.OVC5.561.7950.0036.400.00-0.49
LongwoodBSth5.561.7911.1123.94-4.32-0.93
MercerSC5.561.7942.8643.97-0.79-0.22
St. BonaventureA105.561.7971.4364.182.380.51
Stony BrookAE0.000.5133.3354.74-0.000.05
BinghamtonAE0.000.480.0011.87-0.00-0.36
AlbanyAE0.000.4533.3348.89-0.00-0.01
UMBCAE0.280.3910.0020.91-0.22-0.22
Sacred HeartNEC0.590.2850.0058.360.000.05
WagnerNEC0.310.2514.2933.54-0.22-0.08
LafayettePat0.000.2275.0069.820.000.09
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.280.2236.3647.13-0.08-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.280.2057.1453.130.040.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.710.1933.3344.71-0.24-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.280.1922.2230.85-0.15-0.07
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.1928.5741.17-0.00-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.710.1666.6742.100.24-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.1622.2240.44-0.00-0.03
ColgatePat0.400.1620.0043.08-0.24-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.1650.0057.510.000.02
DuquesneA100.000.1628.5731.23-0.00-0.06
RiderMAAC0.280.1650.0052.800.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1655.5640.500.00-0.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.280.1644.4449.65-0.03-0.00
George MasonA100.000.1525.0025.93-0.00-0.07
Boston UniversityPat0.710.1333.3342.19-0.24-0.02
MassachusettsA100.000.1360.0055.630.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.670.1330.0028.50-0.27-0.06
Loyola MDPat0.000.1333.3327.70-0.00-0.06
AmericanPat0.000.1360.0065.400.000.04
NiagaraMAAC0.620.1314.2930.74-0.45-0.05
VanderbiltSEC0.000.1375.0060.400.000.03
BuffaloMAC0.350.1275.0069.120.170.05
CanisiusMAAC0.350.1255.5661.390.040.03
SienaMAAC0.350.1237.5051.81-0.090.00
Rhode IslandA100.310.1262.5073.190.080.06
LibertyBSth0.000.1225.0034.77-0.00-0.04
RadfordBSth0.000.1250.0055.810.000.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.1272.7353.260.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1040.0046.73-0.00-0.01
VillanovaBE0.000.10100.0082.080.000.06
DenverSum0.000.1050.0054.230.000.01
HowardMEAC0.000.1030.0043.91-0.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.1050.0062.270.000.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.1062.5054.980.000.01
BucknellPat0.000.0940.0036.29-0.00-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.000.0928.5736.95-0.00-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.310.0985.7170.350.220.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.280.0971.4363.410.120.03
La SalleA100.000.0950.0049.960.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.0971.4361.370.000.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.310.0914.2945.19-0.22-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.280.0922.2237.75-0.15-0.02
WinthropBSth0.310.0928.5747.31-0.13-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0922.2230.99-0.00-0.04
AkronMAC0.000.0960.0056.560.000.01
FordhamA100.310.0928.5728.26-0.13-0.04
IowaB100.280.0972.7362.590.130.02
RutgersB100.400.0960.0035.070.08-0.03
DrexelCAA0.000.0925.0037.13-0.00-0.02
George WashingtonA100.280.0966.6766.340.090.03
IllinoisB100.000.0972.7365.930.000.03
NorthwesternB100.000.0960.0040.620.00-0.02
Ohio St.B100.310.0990.0084.680.250.06
Arizona St.P120.000.0760.0053.820.000.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0750.0052.710.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0736.3644.53-0.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0771.4348.860.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.000.0720.0026.33-0.00-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0744.4455.75-0.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0755.5656.400.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0766.6757.860.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0744.4445.59-0.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.0727.2738.97-0.00-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0762.5054.970.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.07100.0085.310.000.05
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0737.5031.95-0.00-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.0740.0050.32-0.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0741.6744.33-0.00-0.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0777.7878.540.000.04
KentuckySEC0.000.07100.0094.790.000.06
LehighPat0.000.0737.5047.71-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.400.0710.0018.58-0.32-0.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.400.070.0023.71-0.40-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.310.0780.0069.620.190.03
MichiganB100.000.0655.5642.550.00-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0675.0067.580.000.02
MaristMAAC0.000.0610.0018.61-0.00-0.04
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0644.4456.51-0.000.01
NavyPat0.000.0620.0021.58-0.00-0.04
Notre DameACC0.000.0690.9171.890.000.03
TempleAmer0.000.0663.6455.600.000.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0660.0059.420.000.01
PurdueB100.400.0672.7363.730.180.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0633.3338.99-0.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.350.0642.8638.11-0.05-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0660.0033.870.00-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0677.7865.390.000.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.350.0637.5064.43-0.090.02
ArmyPat0.000.0677.7868.780.000.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0660.0062.970.000.02
CaliforniaP120.000.0690.0066.690.000.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0642.8649.98-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0644.4451.58-0.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0657.1470.590.000.03
DaytonA100.000.0677.7870.120.000.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0671.4363.890.000.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0642.8655.64-0.000.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0660.0064.930.000.02
FurmanSC0.000.0625.0029.59-0.00-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0637.5050.40-0.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0618.1821.30-0.00-0.04
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0675.0074.340.000.03
LipscombASun0.000.0625.0042.64-0.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0618.1846.16-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0637.5037.96-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0650.0056.340.000.01
PittsburghACC0.350.0666.6752.340.120.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.060.008.63-0.00-0.05
RichmondA100.000.0655.5657.090.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0630.0039.44-0.00-0.01
SamfordSC0.000.0633.3331.58-0.00-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.000.0654.5557.300.000.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.060.007.84-0.00-0.05
Seton HallBE0.350.0690.0067.260.280.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0662.5064.260.000.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0660.0049.500.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0666.6757.800.000.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.280.0662.5066.700.070.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.060.0016.85-0.00-0.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0650.0049.620.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.000.0616.6730.84-0.00-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.0666.6772.670.000.03
VMISC0.350.0633.3339.22-0.12-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0650.0038.000.00-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0620.0041.46-0.00-0.01
WoffordSC0.000.0677.7876.240.000.03
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0633.3332.85-0.00-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.060.0039.41-0.00-0.01
USCP120.000.0660.0036.120.00-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.310.0625.0038.92-0.15-0.01
MarylandB100.000.0690.9167.660.000.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0677.7864.730.000.02
WisconsinB100.000.0690.9188.390.000.04
MarquetteBE0.000.0455.5647.870.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.040.0036.67-0.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0487.5065.040.000.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0342.8638.75-0.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.400.0377.7851.350.220.00
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0366.6764.310.000.01
StetsonASun0.400.0310.0027.42-0.32-0.02
DePaulBE0.000.0360.0034.110.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0344.4451.04-0.000.00
IdahoBSky0.000.0337.5049.83-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.0310.0018.01-0.00-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.000.0342.8643.10-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.000.0357.1461.670.000.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.310.030.0031.74-0.31-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.310.0333.3362.92-0.100.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0320.0034.08-0.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.310.0380.0072.550.190.01
CampbellBSth0.000.0325.0044.59-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.310.0333.3349.71-0.10-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.350.03100.0078.050.350.02
DavidsonA100.000.0387.5077.020.000.02
DelawareCAA0.000.030.007.39-0.00-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0362.5059.510.000.01
High PointBSth0.000.0362.5056.410.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.350.0318.1844.62-0.22-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.280.0370.0060.790.110.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.350.0336.3633.67-0.09-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.310.03100.0085.330.310.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0355.5659.990.000.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0355.5661.790.000.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0328.5757.26-0.000.00
PacificWCC0.350.0350.0038.180.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.350.0316.6726.28-0.23-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.310.0318.1828.02-0.20-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0344.4447.53-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0046.150.00-0.00
VCUA100.000.0370.0071.420.000.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.280.0345.4544.07-0.03-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0360.0064.610.000.01
IndianaB100.000.0380.0057.630.000.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0372.7373.150.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0318.1835.99-0.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.0366.6743.780.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.0355.5638.130.00-0.01