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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Dartmouth

Conference:Ivy
Expected RPI:186.0
Current RPI:186
Expected SOS:218
Current SOS:218
Current Record:14-14
Expected Record:14-14
Current Conf Record:7-7
Expected Conf Record:7-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-7
Current OOC Record:7-7
Expected OOC Record:7-7
Expected OOC RPI:195
Expected OOC SOS:284



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-14186.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Dartmouth.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15St. Bonaventure (121.0)A10A77-57L0%0.0
11-19Hartford (244.0)AEA53-48L0%0.0
11-28IPFW (215.0)SumH68-67W100%0.0
11-30New Hampshire (193.0)AEH63-65L0%0.0
12-3Longwood (316.0)BSthA74-73L0%0.0
12-6Maine (339.0)AEH74-51W100%0.0
12-10UMass Lowell (266.0)AEA48-69W100%0.0
12-14Jacksonville St. (304.0)OVCA79-67L0%0.0
12-16Mercer (212.0)SCA51-67W100%0.0
12-19Northern Illinois (185.0)MACH58-55W100%0.0
12-22Penn St. (108.0)B10A69-49L0%0.0
12-31Bryant (189.0)NECA59-76W100%0.0
1-10Harvard (52.0)IvyH46-57L0%0.0
1-14Vermont (203.0)AEA55-52L0%0.0
1-17NJIT (159.0)indH62-53W100%0.0
1-24Harvard (52.0)IvyA61-70W100%0.0
1-30Penn (254.0)IvyA58-51L0%0.0
1-31Princeton (191.0)IvyA64-53L0%0.0
2-6Yale (64.0)IvyA81-66L0%0.0
2-7Brown (248.0)IvyA67-64L0%0.0
2-13Cornell (227.0)IvyH72-81L0%0.0
2-14Columbia (196.0)IvyH61-49W100%0.0
2-20Princeton (191.0)IvyH56-63L0%0.0
2-21Penn (254.0)IvyH67-62W100%0.0
2-27Columbia (196.0)IvyA71-84W100%0.0
2-28Cornell (227.0)IvyA45-56W100%0.0
3-6Brown (248.0)IvyH75-69W100%0.0
3-7Yale (64.0)IvyH59-58W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Dartmouth's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Dartmouth's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Dartmouth.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DartmouthIvy26.3026.3053.2353.231.701.70
YaleIvy4.524.5267.8667.861.621.62
HarvardIvy4.444.4476.0076.002.312.31
BrownIvy4.424.4237.0437.04-1.15-1.15
CornellIvy4.394.3940.7440.74-0.81-0.81
PrincetonIvy4.334.3348.1548.15-0.16-0.16
PennIvy4.324.3230.7730.77-1.66-1.66
ColumbiaIvy4.324.3248.0048.00-0.17-0.17
UMass LowellAE2.222.2240.7440.74-0.41-0.41
VermontAE2.192.1955.1755.170.230.23
New HampshireAE2.152.1557.1457.140.310.31
MaineAE2.132.1310.3410.34-1.69-1.69
HartfordAE2.122.1242.8642.86-0.30-0.30
BryantNEC2.032.0353.3353.330.140.14
NJITind1.971.9758.3358.330.330.33
Penn St.B101.851.8551.5251.520.060.06
Northern IllinoisMAC1.821.8246.4346.43-0.13-0.13
IPFWSum1.791.7950.0050.000.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC1.791.7932.1432.14-0.64-0.64
LongwoodBSth1.791.7925.8125.81-0.86-0.86
MercerSC1.791.7953.3353.330.120.12
St. BonaventureA101.791.7956.6756.670.240.24
Stony BrookAE0.530.5365.6265.620.170.17
AlbanyAE0.500.5075.0075.000.250.25
BinghamtonAE0.460.4616.6716.67-0.31-0.31
UMBCAE0.400.4013.3313.33-0.29-0.29
Sacred HeartNEC0.300.3045.1645.16-0.03-0.03
WagnerNEC0.250.2531.0331.03-0.09-0.09
LafayettePat0.220.2261.2961.290.050.05
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.220.2247.0647.06-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.190.1944.8344.83-0.02-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.190.1916.1316.13-0.13-0.13
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.190.1925.0025.00-0.09-0.09
LIU BrooklynNEC0.180.1840.0040.00-0.04-0.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.180.1841.9441.94-0.03-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.160.1666.6766.670.050.05
Boston CollegeACC0.160.1640.6240.62-0.03-0.03
ColgatePat0.160.1646.8846.88-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
ConnecticutAmer0.150.1558.8258.820.030.03
George MasonA100.150.1526.6726.67-0.07-0.07
DuquesneA100.150.1536.6736.67-0.04-0.04
QuinnipiacMAAC0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
AmericanPat0.130.1351.5251.520.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.130.1336.6736.67-0.03-0.03
MassachusettsA100.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
VanderbiltSEC0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
Miami OHMAC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.120.1270.0070.000.050.05
BuffaloMAC0.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
ProvidenceBE0.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
CanisiusMAAC0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
SienaMAAC0.120.1235.4835.48-0.03-0.03
LibertyBSth0.120.1214.2914.29-0.08-0.08
RadfordBSth0.120.1262.0762.070.030.03
AkronMAC0.120.1258.8258.820.020.02
WinthropBSth0.110.1155.1755.170.010.01
IowaB100.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.100.1094.1294.120.090.09
South DakotaSum0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
La SalleA100.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
BucknellPat0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.090.0921.4321.43-0.05-0.05
Western MichiganMAC0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.090.0971.4371.430.040.04
Kent St.MAC0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
Ball St.MAC0.090.0920.6920.69-0.05-0.05
Eastern MichiganMAC0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
DrexelCAA0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
NorthwesternB100.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.090.0930.0030.00-0.03-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.090.0975.7675.760.040.04
FurmanSC0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
VMISC0.090.0932.1432.14-0.03-0.03
PurdueB100.090.0963.6463.640.020.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Ohio St.B100.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0859.2659.260.020.02
PresbyterianBSth0.080.0821.4321.43-0.05-0.05
RutgersB100.080.0831.2531.25-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
HamptonMEAC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0725.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
HofstraCAA0.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
HoustonAmer0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.070.0732.2632.26-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.070.07100.00100.000.070.07
LehighPat0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0739.2939.29-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0770.0070.000.030.03
NortheasternCAA0.070.0767.6567.650.020.02
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0767.7467.740.020.02
VirginiaACC0.070.0790.6290.620.050.05
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0723.0823.08-0.04-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.060.0621.8821.88-0.04-0.04
MonmouthMAAC0.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
NavyPat0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.060.0669.7069.700.030.03
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
MichiganB100.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
CaliforniaP120.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0658.3358.330.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Notre DameACC0.060.0685.2985.290.040.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.060.060.000.00-0.06-0.06
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
SyracuseACC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0610.3410.34-0.05-0.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
FloridaSEC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
ArmyPat0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
PittsburghACC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
RichmondA100.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
SamfordSC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.060.0629.6329.63-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.060.0681.2581.250.040.04
MarshallCUSA0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
USCP120.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
MarylandB100.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
MinnesotaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
NebraskaB100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
MarquetteBE0.040.0440.6240.62-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.040.0432.2632.26-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.040.0464.5264.520.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
StetsonASun0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0362.9662.960.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
DePaulBE0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.020.02
MemphisAmer0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0318.7518.75-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
DavidsonA100.030.0376.6776.670.020.02
DelawareCAA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
VCUA100.030.0374.2974.290.010.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01