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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Dartmouth

Conference:Ivy
Expected RPI:334.0
Current RPI:334
Expected SOS:313
Current SOS:313
Current Record:6-20
Expected Record:6-20
Current Conf Record:3-11
Expected Conf Record:3-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-9
Current OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC RPI:323
Expected OOC SOS:321



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
6-20334.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Dartmouth.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Quinnipiac (277.0)MAACA78-77L0%0.0
11-22Albany (142.0)AEH73-91L0%0.0
11-28Loyola MD (322.0)PatH64-63W100%0.0
12-2Canisius (124.0)MAACA73-60L0%0.0
12-5Sacred Heart (321.0)NECA79-73L0%0.0
12-8Maine (338.0)AEA66-73W100%0.0
12-15Illinois Chicago (236.0)HorzA76-60L0%0.0
12-19Notre Dame (70.0)ACCA97-87L0%0.0
12-22Bryant (341.0)NECH75-58W100%0.0
12-30New Hampshire (312.0)AEA83-66L0%0.0
1-6Harvard (117.0)IvyA61-51L0%0.0
1-10Vermont (60.0)AEH78-91L0%0.0
1-13Boston College (96.0)ACCA86-72L0%0.0
1-20Harvard (117.0)IvyH57-62L0%0.0
1-26Brown (298.0)IvyA64-62L0%0.0
1-27Yale (183.0)IvyA74-64L0%0.0
2-2Cornell (248.0)IvyA86-85L0%0.0
2-3Columbia (316.0)IvyA77-74L0%0.0
2-9Penn (112.0)IvyH61-64L0%0.0
2-10Princeton (226.0)IvyH72-56W100%0.0
2-16Yale (183.0)IvyH65-77L0%0.0
2-17Brown (298.0)IvyH66-63W100%0.0
2-23Penn (112.0)IvyA74-46L0%0.0
2-24Princeton (226.0)IvyA64-47L0%0.0
3-2Columbia (316.0)IvyH80-78W100%0.0
3-3Cornell (248.0)IvyH75-86L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Dartmouth's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Dartmouth's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Dartmouth.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DartmouthIvy26.3326.3320.7520.75-15.40-15.40
HarvardIvy4.844.8453.5753.570.350.35
YaleIvy4.834.8346.4346.43-0.34-0.34
PennIvy4.814.8172.4172.412.152.15
ColumbiaIvy4.774.7725.0025.00-2.39-2.39
CornellIvy4.724.7236.0036.00-1.32-1.32
BrownIvy4.714.7137.5037.50-1.18-1.18
PrincetonIvy4.664.6642.3142.31-0.72-0.72
AlbanyAE2.312.3166.6766.670.770.77
VermontAE2.302.3078.1278.121.301.30
MaineAE2.302.3013.7913.79-1.67-1.67
QuinnipiacMAAC2.222.2234.3834.38-0.69-0.69
BryantNEC2.192.1910.0010.00-1.75-1.75
New HampshireAE2.142.1425.0025.00-1.07-1.07
Boston CollegeACC2.122.1254.5554.550.190.19
Sacred HeartNEC2.052.0527.5927.59-0.92-0.92
CanisiusMAAC2.042.0464.5264.520.590.59
Notre DameACC1.981.9856.2556.250.250.25
Illinois ChicagoHorz1.921.9248.2848.28-0.07-0.07
Loyola MDPat1.921.9227.5927.59-0.86-0.86
UMass LowellAE0.460.4637.9337.93-0.11-0.11
Stony BrookAE0.460.4638.7138.71-0.10-0.10
HartfordAE0.400.4058.0658.060.070.07
BinghamtonAE0.390.3931.0331.03-0.15-0.15
LafayettePat0.330.3330.0030.00-0.13-0.13
MonmouthMAAC0.320.3235.4835.48-0.09-0.09
UMBCAE0.280.2867.7467.740.100.10
ColgatePat0.270.2758.0658.060.040.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.260.2643.7543.75-0.03-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.260.2650.0050.000.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.240.2451.5251.520.010.01
SienaMAAC0.240.2425.0025.00-0.12-0.12
NavyPat0.230.2361.2961.290.050.05
St. Francis NYNEC0.230.2337.9337.93-0.06-0.06
Boston UniversityPat0.220.2246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.220.2238.7138.71-0.05-0.05
NiagaraMAAC0.220.2259.3859.380.040.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.200.2051.5251.520.010.01
LehighPat0.200.2051.7251.720.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.190.1937.9337.93-0.05-0.05
MaristMAAC0.190.1919.3519.35-0.12-0.12
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.190.1953.3353.330.010.01
IonaMAAC0.180.1860.6160.610.040.04
Georgia TechACC0.180.1840.6240.62-0.03-0.03
ArmyPat0.170.1741.3841.38-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.170.1745.4545.45-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.160.1638.7138.71-0.04-0.04
NortheasternCAA0.160.1668.7568.750.060.06
SyracuseACC0.160.1660.6160.610.030.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.160.1648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.150.1570.9770.970.060.06
ManhattanMAAC0.150.1545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.150.1543.7543.75-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
LongwoodBSth0.150.1513.3313.33-0.11-0.11
NorthwesternB100.140.1445.1645.16-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.140.1488.2488.240.100.10
ProvidenceBE0.130.1361.7661.760.030.03
ToledoMAC0.130.1366.6766.670.040.04
St. Francis PANEC0.130.1357.1457.140.020.02
WagnerNEC0.130.1370.0070.000.050.05
BucknellPat0.130.1373.5373.530.060.06
KentuckySEC0.130.1370.5970.590.050.05
MassachusettsA100.130.1339.3939.39-0.03-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.120.1278.1278.120.070.07
LouisvilleACC0.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
RiderMAAC0.120.1270.9770.970.050.05
Florida St.ACC0.120.1264.5264.520.030.03
AmericanPat0.100.1020.0020.00-0.06-0.06
FordhamA100.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.090.0920.0020.00-0.06-0.06
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.096.676.67-0.08-0.08
MemphisAmer0.090.0961.7661.760.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.0936.6736.67-0.03-0.03
TowsonCAA0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.090.0968.9768.970.040.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
La SalleA100.090.0940.6240.62-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
North CarolinaACC0.090.0971.4371.430.040.04
PittsburghACC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Virginia TechACC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
ClemsonACC0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
AuburnSEC0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
DuquesneA100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
AkronMAC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
BYUWCC0.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
Cal PolyBW0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
HawaiiBW0.070.0753.5753.570.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0776.6776.670.040.04
USCP120.070.0767.6567.650.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0662.0762.070.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0632.3532.35-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
DetroitHorz0.060.0620.0020.00-0.04-0.04
Green BayHorz0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
IUPUIHorz0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0628.5728.57-0.03-0.03
MinnesotaB100.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.060.0684.8584.850.040.04
TCUB120.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
WisconsinB100.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
DaytonA100.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
TempleAmer0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
UMKCWAC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
DePaulBE0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.060.0637.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
RichmondA100.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.060.0693.9493.940.050.05
FloridaSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
FurmanSC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
TexasB120.030.0357.5857.580.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Fort WayneSum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
TroySB0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
RutgersB100.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.020.02
ElonCAA0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
PacificWCC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
BradleyMVC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.030.033.333.33-0.03-0.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
IndianaB100.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
LibertyBSth0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
LSUSEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
MarquetteBE0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Wichita St.Amer0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
NebraskaB100.030.0368.7568.750.010.01