Dartmouth

Conference:	Ivy
Expected RPI:	334.0
Current RPI:	334
Expected SOS:	313
Current SOS:	313
Current Record:	6-20
Expected Record:	6-20
Current Conf Record:	3-11
Expected Conf Record:	3-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	6-9
Current OOC Record:	3-9
Expected OOC Record:	3-9
Expected OOC RPI:	323
Expected OOC SOS:	321

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
6-20	334.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Dartmouth.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Quinnipiac (277.0)	MAAC	A	78-77	L	0%
11-22	Albany (142.0)	AE	H	73-91	L	0%
11-28	Loyola MD (322.0)	Pat	H	64-63	W	100%
12-2	Canisius (124.0)	MAAC	A	73-60	L	0%
12-5	Sacred Heart (321.0)	NEC	A	79-73	L	0%
12-8	Maine (338.0)	AE	A	66-73	W	100%
12-15	Illinois Chicago (236.0)	Horz	A	76-60	L	0%
12-19	Notre Dame (70.0)	ACC	A	97-87	L	0%
12-22	Bryant (341.0)	NEC	H	75-58	W	100%
12-30	New Hampshire (312.0)	AE	A	83-66	L	0%
1-6	Harvard (117.0)	Ivy	A	61-51	L	0%
1-10	Vermont (60.0)	AE	H	78-91	L	0%
1-13	Boston College (96.0)	ACC	A	86-72	L	0%
1-20	Harvard (117.0)	Ivy	H	57-62	L	0%
1-26	Brown (298.0)	Ivy	A	64-62	L	0%
1-27	Yale (183.0)	Ivy	A	74-64	L	0%
2-2	Cornell (248.0)	Ivy	A	86-85	L	0%
2-3	Columbia (316.0)	Ivy	A	77-74	L	0%
2-9	Penn (112.0)	Ivy	H	61-64	L	0%
2-10	Princeton (226.0)	Ivy	H	72-56	W	100%
2-16	Yale (183.0)	Ivy	H	65-77	L	0%
2-17	Brown (298.0)	Ivy	H	66-63	W	100%
2-23	Penn (112.0)	Ivy	A	74-46	L	0%
2-24	Princeton (226.0)	Ivy	A	64-47	L	0%
3-2	Columbia (316.0)	Ivy	H	80-78	W	100%
3-3	Cornell (248.0)	Ivy	H	75-86	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Dartmouth's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Dartmouth's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Dartmouth.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Dartmouth	Ivy	26.33	26.33	20.75	20.75	-15.40	-15.40
Harvard	Ivy	4.84	4.84	53.57	53.57	0.35	0.35
Yale	Ivy	4.83	4.83	46.43	46.43	-0.34	-0.34
Penn	Ivy	4.81	4.81	72.41	72.41	2.15	2.15
Columbia	Ivy	4.77	4.77	25.00	25.00	-2.39	-2.39
Cornell	Ivy	4.72	4.72	36.00	36.00	-1.32	-1.32
Brown	Ivy	4.71	4.71	37.50	37.50	-1.18	-1.18
Princeton	Ivy	4.66	4.66	42.31	42.31	-0.72	-0.72
Albany	AE	2.31	2.31	66.67	66.67	0.77	0.77
Vermont	AE	2.30	2.30	78.12	78.12	1.30	1.30
Maine	AE	2.30	2.30	13.79	13.79	-1.67	-1.67
Quinnipiac	MAAC	2.22	2.22	34.38	34.38	-0.69	-0.69
Bryant	NEC	2.19	2.19	10.00	10.00	-1.75	-1.75
New Hampshire	AE	2.14	2.14	25.00	25.00	-1.07	-1.07
Boston College	ACC	2.12	2.12	54.55	54.55	0.19	0.19
Sacred Heart	NEC	2.05	2.05	27.59	27.59	-0.92	-0.92
Canisius	MAAC	2.04	2.04	64.52	64.52	0.59	0.59
Notre Dame	ACC	1.98	1.98	56.25	56.25	0.25	0.25
Illinois Chicago	Horz	1.92	1.92	48.28	48.28	-0.07	-0.07
Loyola MD	Pat	1.92	1.92	27.59	27.59	-0.86	-0.86
UMass Lowell	AE	0.46	0.46	37.93	37.93	-0.11	-0.11
Stony Brook	AE	0.46	0.46	38.71	38.71	-0.10	-0.10
Hartford	AE	0.40	0.40	58.06	58.06	0.07	0.07
Binghamton	AE	0.39	0.39	31.03	31.03	-0.15	-0.15
Lafayette	Pat	0.33	0.33	30.00	30.00	-0.13	-0.13
Monmouth	MAAC	0.32	0.32	35.48	35.48	-0.09	-0.09
UMBC	AE	0.28	0.28	67.74	67.74	0.10	0.10
Colgate	Pat	0.27	0.27	58.06	58.06	0.04	0.04
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.26	0.26	43.75	43.75	-0.03	-0.03
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.26	0.26	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Fairfield	MAAC	0.24	0.24	51.52	51.52	0.01	0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.24	0.24	25.00	25.00	-0.12	-0.12
Navy	Pat	0.23	0.23	61.29	61.29	0.05	0.05
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.23	0.23	37.93	37.93	-0.06	-0.06
Boston University	Pat	0.22	0.22	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.22	0.22	38.71	38.71	-0.05	-0.05
Niagara	MAAC	0.22	0.22	59.38	59.38	0.04	0.04
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.20	0.20	51.52	51.52	0.01	0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.20	0.20	51.72	51.72	0.01	0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.19	0.19	37.93	37.93	-0.05	-0.05
Marist	MAAC	0.19	0.19	19.35	19.35	-0.12	-0.12
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.19	0.19	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.18	0.18	60.61	60.61	0.04	0.04
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.18	0.18	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
Army	Pat	0.17	0.17	41.38	41.38	-0.03	-0.03
George Washington	A10	0.17	0.17	45.45	45.45	-0.02	-0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.16	0.16	38.71	38.71	-0.04	-0.04
Northeastern	CAA	0.16	0.16	68.75	68.75	0.06	0.06
Syracuse	ACC	0.16	0.16	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Robert Morris	NEC	0.16	0.16	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.15	0.15	70.97	70.97	0.06	0.06
Manhattan	MAAC	0.15	0.15	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.15	0.15	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.15	0.15	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Longwood	BSth	0.15	0.15	13.33	13.33	-0.11	-0.11
Northwestern	B10	0.14	0.14	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Villanova	BE	0.14	0.14	88.24	88.24	0.10	0.10
Providence	BE	0.13	0.13	61.76	61.76	0.03	0.03
Toledo	MAC	0.13	0.13	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.13	0.13	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Wagner	NEC	0.13	0.13	70.00	70.00	0.05	0.05
Bucknell	Pat	0.13	0.13	73.53	73.53	0.06	0.06
Kentucky	SEC	0.13	0.13	70.59	70.59	0.05	0.05
Massachusetts	A10	0.13	0.13	39.39	39.39	-0.03	-0.03
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.12	0.12	78.12	78.12	0.07	0.07
Louisville	ACC	0.12	0.12	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Rider	MAAC	0.12	0.12	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
Florida St.	ACC	0.12	0.12	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
American	Pat	0.10	0.10	20.00	20.00	-0.06	-0.06
Fordham	A10	0.10	0.10	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Milwaukee	Horz	0.10	0.10	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.09	0.09	20.00	20.00	-0.06	-0.06
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.09	0.09	6.67	6.67	-0.08	-0.08
Memphis	Amer	0.09	0.09	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.09	0.09	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Towson	CAA	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.09	0.09	68.97	68.97	0.04	0.04
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.09	0.09	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
La Salle	A10	0.09	0.09	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Duke	ACC	0.09	0.09	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
North Carolina	ACC	0.09	0.09	71.43	71.43	0.04	0.04
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.09	0.09	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Wake Forest	ACC	0.09	0.09	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Clemson	ACC	0.09	0.09	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
Connecticut	Amer	0.07	0.07	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
NJIT	ASun	0.07	0.07	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.07	0.07	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Auburn	SEC	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Duquesne	A10	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Akron	MAC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Butler	BE	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
BYU	WCC	0.07	0.07	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Cal Poly	BW	0.07	0.07	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
Hawaii	BW	0.07	0.07	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.07	0.07	76.67	76.67	0.04	0.04
USC	P12	0.07	0.07	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.06	0.06	62.07	62.07	0.02	0.02
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	32.35	32.35	-0.02	-0.02
Creighton	BE	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
Green Bay	Horz	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
IUPUI	Horz	0.06	0.06	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.06	0.06	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Oakland	Horz	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.06	0.06	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
TCU	B12	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Wofford	SC	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Dayton	A10	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Temple	Amer	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
UMKC	WAC	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
DePaul	BE	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Drexel	CAA	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Tech	B12	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Richmond	A10	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.06	0.06	93.94	93.94	0.05	0.05
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Texas	B12	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Utah St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Georgetown	BE	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Troy	SB	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Rutgers	B10	0.03	0.03	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Air Force	MWC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.02	0.02
Elon	CAA	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Pacific	WCC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Texas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Chicago St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	3.33	3.33	-0.03	-0.03
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Liberty	BSth	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
LSU	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	87.88	87.88	0.02	0.02
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	Amer	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01