Dartmouth

Conference:	Ivy
Expected RPI:	328.0
Current RPI:	328
Expected SOS:	222
Current SOS:	222
Current Record:	4-25
Expected Record:	4-25
Current Conf Record:	1-13
Expected Conf Record:	1-13
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	4-7
Current OOC Record:	3-12
Expected OOC Record:	3-12
Expected OOC RPI:	340
Expected OOC SOS:	308

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
4-25	328.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Dartmouth.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Rutgers (163.0)	BE	A	62-56	L	0%
11-16	Vermont (134.0)	AE	H	53-65	L	0%
11-19	Bryant (340.0)	NEC	H	66-62	W	100%
11-23	San Francisco (136.0)	WCC	N	71-69	L	0%
11-26	Central Michigan (280.0)	MAC	N	48-65	L	0%
11-30	New Hampshire (296.0)	AE	A	53-50	L	0%
12-10	Notre Dame (39.0)	BE	A	65-47	L	0%
12-13	IUPU Fort Wayne (278.0)	Sum	A	56-51	L	0%
12-17	Elon (228.0)	SC	H	62-54	W	100%
12-19	Colgate (295.0)	Pat	A	61-55	L	0%
12-21	Army (301.0)	Pat	A	67-64	L	0%
12-23	Albany (215.0)	AE	A	82-74	L	0%
12-31	Holy Cross (177.0)	Pat	H	61-65	L	0%
1-3	Bucknell (88.0)	Pat	H	59-67	L	0%
1-7	Harvard (35.0)	Ivy	A	63-47	L	0%
1-14	Longwood (332.0)	ind	H	83-67	W	100%
1-21	Harvard (35.0)	Ivy	H	38-54	L	0%
1-27	Brown (313.0)	Ivy	A	66-59	L	0%
1-28	Yale (102.0)	Ivy	A	62-52	L	0%
2-3	Columbia (186.0)	Ivy	H	62-64	L	0%
2-4	Cornell (181.0)	Ivy	H	59-68	L	0%
2-10	Princeton (87.0)	Ivy	A	59-47	L	0%
2-11	Pennsylvania (98.0)	Ivy	A	58-55	L	0%
2-17	Yale (102.0)	Ivy	H	61-70	L	0%
2-18	Brown (313.0)	Ivy	H	58-53	W	100%
2-24	Pennsylvania (98.0)	Ivy	H	54-57	L	0%
2-25	Princeton (87.0)	Ivy	H	61-85	L	0%
3-2	Cornell (181.0)	Ivy	A	70-57	L	0%
3-3	Columbia (186.0)	Ivy	A	61-55	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Dartmouth's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Dartmouth's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Dartmouth.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Dartmouth	Ivy	26.28	26.28	9.45	9.45	-21.31	-21.31
Brown	Ivy	4.30	4.30	21.43	21.43	-2.46	-2.46
Yale	Ivy	4.28	4.28	62.50	62.50	1.07	1.07
Columbia	Ivy	4.27	4.27	42.31	42.31	-0.66	-0.66
Princeton	Ivy	4.26	4.26	57.69	57.69	0.66	0.66
Harvard	Ivy	4.24	4.24	85.19	85.19	2.98	2.98
Cornell	Ivy	4.23	4.23	36.00	36.00	-1.18	-1.18
Pennsylvania	Ivy	4.19	4.19	58.62	58.62	0.72	0.72
Holy Cross	Pat	2.14	2.14	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Bucknell	Pat	2.03	2.03	70.97	70.97	0.85	0.85
Army	Pat	2.02	2.02	35.71	35.71	-0.58	-0.58
Albany	AE	2.02	2.02	56.25	56.25	0.25	0.25
Colgate	Pat	2.02	2.02	24.14	24.14	-1.04	-1.04
New Hampshire	AE	1.97	1.97	40.74	40.74	-0.36	-0.36
Vermont	AE	1.96	1.96	66.67	66.67	0.65	0.65
Bryant	NEC	1.90	1.90	6.90	6.90	-1.64	-1.64
Elon	SC	1.85	1.85	46.43	46.43	-0.13	-0.13
Rutgers	BE	1.84	1.84	41.94	41.94	-0.30	-0.30
Longwood	ind	1.81	1.81	23.08	23.08	-0.98	-0.98
Notre Dame	BE	1.81	1.81	65.62	65.62	0.56	0.56
San Francisco	WCC	1.75	1.75	56.67	56.67	0.23	0.23
Central Michigan	MAC	1.72	1.72	30.00	30.00	-0.69	-0.69
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	1.72	1.72	26.92	26.92	-0.80	-0.80
Lafayette	Pat	0.47	0.47	41.94	41.94	-0.08	-0.08
American	Pat	0.44	0.44	64.52	64.52	0.13	0.13
Lehigh	Pat	0.38	0.38	78.12	78.12	0.21	0.21
Stony Brook	AE	0.37	0.37	70.00	70.00	0.15	0.15
Navy	Pat	0.34	0.34	7.14	7.14	-0.30	-0.30
Hartford	AE	0.34	0.34	29.03	29.03	-0.14	-0.14
Boston University	AE	0.31	0.31	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Binghamton	AE	0.31	0.31	6.45	6.45	-0.27	-0.27
Maine	AE	0.30	0.30	39.29	39.29	-0.06	-0.06
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.29	0.29	43.75	43.75	-0.04	-0.04
Marist	MAAC	0.26	0.26	43.75	43.75	-0.03	-0.03
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.25	0.25	13.33	13.33	-0.18	-0.18
Connecticut	BE	0.23	0.23	60.61	60.61	0.05	0.05
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.21	0.21	44.83	44.83	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.20	0.20	58.62	58.62	0.04	0.04
Providence	BE	0.20	0.20	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Monmouth	NEC	0.20	0.20	37.50	37.50	-0.05	-0.05
Seton Hall	BE	0.18	0.18	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.18	0.18	58.06	58.06	0.03	0.03
Manhattan	MAAC	0.17	0.17	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Wagner	NEC	0.17	0.17	80.65	80.65	0.11	0.11
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.17	0.17	10.34	10.34	-0.14	-0.14
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.17	0.17	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.15	0.15	64.29	64.29	0.04	0.04
Seattle	ind	0.15	0.15	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.15	0.15	39.29	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
Boston College	ACC	0.15	0.15	29.03	29.03	-0.06	-0.06
Rider	MAAC	0.14	0.14	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
Villanova	BE	0.14	0.14	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
Syracuse	BE	0.13	0.13	93.94	93.94	0.12	0.12
Pittsburgh	BE	0.13	0.13	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.12	0.12	22.58	22.58	-0.07	-0.07
Florida St.	ACC	0.12	0.12	72.73	72.73	0.06	0.06
Delaware	CAA	0.12	0.12	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Maryland	ACC	0.12	0.12	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Long Island	NEC	0.12	0.12	75.76	75.76	0.06	0.06
Davidson	SC	0.12	0.12	77.42	77.42	0.06	0.06
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.12	0.12	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Gonzaga	WCC	0.11	0.11	80.65	80.65	0.07	0.07
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.11	0.11	20.69	20.69	-0.07	-0.07
Robert Morris	NEC	0.11	0.11	70.59	70.59	0.05	0.05
Siena	MAAC	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.11	0.11	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
George Mason	CAA	0.11	0.11	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
West Virginia	BE	0.11	0.11	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
South Florida	BE	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.10	0.10	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.10	0.10	81.82	81.82	0.06	0.06
Florida	SEC	0.09	0.09	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Southern Utah	Sum	0.09	0.09	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.09	0.09	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.09	0.09	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
Furman	SC	0.09	0.09	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.09	0.09	64.71	64.71	0.03	0.03
Iowa	B10	0.09	0.09	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
College of Charleston	SC	0.09	0.09	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
The Citadel	SC	0.09	0.09	14.29	14.29	-0.06	-0.06
Morehead St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Fordham	A10	0.09	0.09	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Brigham Young	WCC	0.09	0.09	74.19	74.19	0.04	0.04
Northeastern	CAA	0.09	0.09	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
Pepperdine	WCC	0.08	0.08	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
Portland	WCC	0.08	0.08	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
St. Mary's	WCC	0.08	0.08	83.33	83.33	0.06	0.06
Temple	A10	0.08	0.08	77.42	77.42	0.05	0.05
Toledo	MAC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Louisville	BE	0.08	0.08	74.29	74.29	0.04	0.04
Wake Forest	ACC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois	B10	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
IUPUI	Sum	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Penn St.	B10	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	10.34	10.34	-0.05	-0.05
South Dakota	Sum	0.06	0.06	28.00	28.00	-0.03	-0.03
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Western Illinois	Sum	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.06	0.06	81.82	81.82	0.04	0.04
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
North Texas	SB	0.06	0.06	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Fairfield	MAAC	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
George Washington	A10	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia Southern	SC	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
NC Greensboro	SC	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Samford	SC	0.06	0.06	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Utah	P12	0.06	0.06	16.67	16.67	-0.04	-0.04
Western Carolina	SC	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.06	0.06	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.06	0.06	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
San Diego St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.06	0.06	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Towson	CAA	0.06	0.06	3.12	3.12	-0.05	-0.05
Ball St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Duke	ACC	0.06	0.06	81.82	81.82	0.04	0.04
James Madison	CAA	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.06	0.06	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
San Diego	WCC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.06	0.06	21.43	21.43	-0.03	-0.03
UCLA	P12	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	73.33	73.33	0.02	0.02
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Chicago St.	GWC	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.03	-0.03
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Nevada	WAC	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
North Dakota	GWC	0.03	0.03	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Purdue	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.03	0.03	6.90	6.90	-0.03	-0.03
Valparaiso	Horz	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Xavier	A10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Presbyterian	BSth	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Arizona	P12	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Montana	BSky	0.03	0.03	79.31	79.31	0.02	0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	96.43	96.43	0.03	0.03
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.03	0.03	11.11	11.11	-0.02	-0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Pacific	BW	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
San Jose St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
UC Irvine	BW	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Detroit	Horz	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Missouri	B12	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.03	0.03	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Old Dominion	CAA	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01