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Through games of Jan 20, 2018.


Dartmouth

Conference:Ivy
Expected RPI:320.7
Current RPI:342
Expected SOS:308
Current SOS:335
Current Record:3-11
Expected Record:7-19
Current Conf Record:0-2
Expected Conf Record:4-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-9
Current OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC RPI:318
Expected OOC SOS:316



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-13223.50.06%
12-14242.90.07%
11-15258.00.86%
10-16275.93.16%
9-17292.89.80%
8-18308.718.12%
7-19322.124.51%
6-20332.224.30%
5-21339.314.11%
4-22344.14.45%
3-23346.60.55%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Dartmouth.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Quinnipiac (307.8)MAACA78-77L0%0.0
11-22Albany (131.7)AEH73-91L0%0.0
11-28Loyola MD (314.3)PatH64-63W100%0.0
12-2Canisius (141.9)MAACA73-60L0%0.0
12-5Sacred Heart (314.6)NECA79-73L0%0.0
12-8Maine (331.5)AEA66-73W100%0.0
12-15Illinois Chicago (260.6)HorzA76-60L0%0.0
12-19Notre Dame (57.5)ACCA97-87L0%0.0
12-22Bryant (330.8)NECH75-58W100%0.0
12-30New Hampshire (267.5)AEA83-66L0%0.0
1-6Harvard (180.6)IvyA61-51L0%0.0
1-10Vermont (57.0)AEH78-91L0%0.0
1-13Boston College (97.8)ACCA86-72L0%0.0
1-20Harvard (180.6)IvyH57-62L0%0.0
1-26Brown (261.3)IvyA0-031%-5.5
1-27Yale (203.6)IvyA0-016%-10.9
2-2Cornell (278.9)IvyA0-040%-2.9
2-3Columbia (278.8)IvyA0-024%-7.8
2-9Penn (173.5)IvyH0-030%-5.8
2-10Princeton (141.3)IvyH0-022%-8.5
2-16Yale (203.6)IvyH0-034%-4.5
2-17Brown (261.3)IvyH0-053%0.9
2-23Penn (173.5)IvyA0-014%-12.2
2-24Princeton (141.3)IvyA0-09%-14.9
3-2Columbia (278.8)IvyH0-045%-1.4
3-3Cornell (278.9)IvyH0-062%3.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Dartmouth's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Dartmouth's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Dartmouth.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DartmouthIvy26.5726.3722.4126.27-14.66-12.51
ColumbiaIvy0.374.8120.0029.49-0.22-1.97
YaleIvy0.274.7941.1845.51-0.05-0.43
BrownIvy0.184.7550.0044.080.00-0.56
HarvardIvy7.244.7228.5742.52-3.10-0.71
PennIvy0.004.7064.7161.640.001.09
PrincetonIvy0.004.6952.9458.420.000.79
CornellIvy0.004.6833.3332.070.00-1.68
AlbanyAE3.942.3268.4266.951.450.79
VermontAE4.092.2972.2276.331.821.21
MaineAE4.032.2911.1115.39-3.14-1.58
QuinnipiacMAAC3.852.2027.7827.58-1.71-0.99
BryantNEC3.862.1910.0017.65-3.08-1.42
New HampshireAE3.842.1525.0035.86-1.92-0.61
Boston CollegeACC3.752.1366.6753.561.250.15
Sacred HeartNEC3.842.0526.3231.19-1.82-0.77
CanisiusMAAC3.752.0257.8959.020.590.36
Notre DameACC3.571.9961.1159.710.790.39
Illinois ChicagoHorz3.571.9238.8944.04-0.79-0.23
Loyola MDPat3.571.9223.5329.73-1.89-0.78
UMass LowellAE0.480.4829.4130.67-0.20-0.18
Stony BrookAE0.280.4138.8946.68-0.06-0.03
BinghamtonAE0.480.4044.4442.74-0.05-0.06
HartfordAE0.550.3952.6346.880.03-0.02
LafayettePat0.280.3422.2227.51-0.16-0.15
MonmouthMAAC0.270.3327.7840.88-0.12-0.06
ColgatePat0.280.2850.0051.040.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.410.2750.0051.650.000.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.270.2652.3848.520.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.290.2658.8258.360.050.04
NavyPat0.180.2460.0055.160.040.02
Boston UniversityPat0.610.2450.0053.160.000.01
Holy CrossPat0.610.2426.3230.43-0.29-0.09
NiagaraMAAC0.200.2357.1453.220.030.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.360.2333.3335.19-0.12-0.07
FairfieldMAAC0.200.2338.8944.14-0.05-0.03
SienaMAAC0.450.2230.0031.69-0.18-0.08
LehighPat0.000.2038.8944.750.00-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.090.2040.0042.57-0.02-0.03
MaristMAAC0.090.2021.0521.99-0.05-0.11
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.090.1923.5332.62-0.05-0.07
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.370.1942.1144.97-0.06-0.02
IonaMAAC0.180.1963.1666.880.050.06
NortheasternCAA0.320.1763.1663.180.080.05
DelawareCAA0.090.1747.3743.04-0.00-0.02
George WashingtonA100.330.1745.0043.49-0.03-0.02
SyracuseACC0.090.1768.4261.270.030.04
ManhattanMAAC0.310.1647.3748.17-0.02-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.1676.4769.020.000.06
Georgia TechACC0.190.1652.6343.120.01-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.270.1644.4448.91-0.03-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.260.1657.1460.400.040.03
LongwoodBSth0.000.1517.6517.230.00-0.10
ArmyPat0.100.1461.1160.530.020.03
NorthwesternB100.190.1455.0050.370.020.00
ToledoMAC0.000.1466.6767.690.000.05
VillanovaBE0.000.1494.7490.310.000.11
ProvidenceBE0.180.1470.0060.460.070.03
KentuckySEC0.410.1373.6867.950.190.05
MassachusettsA100.410.1350.0046.780.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.180.1366.6768.700.060.05
Florida St.ACC0.190.1373.6869.610.090.05
LouisvilleACC0.270.1377.7869.360.150.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.180.1368.4257.770.070.02
RiderMAAC0.180.1365.0065.370.050.04
St. Francis PANEC0.170.1352.9459.250.010.02
WagnerNEC0.170.1364.7164.540.050.04
AmericanPat0.200.1026.3228.14-0.10-0.05
FordhamA100.320.1031.5829.06-0.12-0.04
BucknellPat0.190.1061.9068.010.050.04
TowsonCAA0.100.1063.1666.000.030.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.100.009.15-0.09-0.08
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.1041.1839.13-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.190.1066.6773.240.060.05
MemphisAmer0.270.1065.0058.490.080.02
La SalleA100.090.1040.0042.72-0.02-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.1027.7831.67-0.04-0.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.180.1021.0523.50-0.11-0.05
North CarolinaACC0.190.1080.0075.050.110.05
Wake ForestACC0.190.1044.4441.15-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.000.0789.4777.030.000.04
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0752.6347.390.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.000.0770.0058.100.000.01
NJITASun0.000.0738.8942.600.00-0.01
Penn St.B100.000.0761.9055.770.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0783.3381.410.000.05
AkronMAC0.000.0747.0644.910.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.000.0766.6763.070.000.02
BYUWCC0.000.0780.9576.230.000.04
Cal PolyBW0.000.0723.5328.210.00-0.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.220.0756.2556.810.030.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0768.7563.960.000.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0772.2274.700.000.03
MinnesotaB100.220.0763.6457.640.060.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.220.0790.4888.940.180.05
USCP120.000.0771.4368.300.000.03
WoffordSC0.220.0768.7563.620.080.02
DrexelCAA0.190.0730.0030.99-0.08-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.0712.5025.470.00-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.090.0720.0023.36-0.06-0.04
CreightonBE0.000.0775.0070.690.000.03
DaytonA100.000.0747.3750.950.000.00
DetroitHorz0.000.0721.0525.980.00-0.03
Green BayHorz0.090.0725.0027.94-0.05-0.03
HowardMEAC0.000.0710.5327.310.00-0.03
IUPUIHorz0.090.0727.7829.84-0.04-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0716.6724.910.00-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.090.0745.0047.05-0.01-0.00
OaklandHorz0.090.0761.9065.160.020.02
TCUB120.000.0773.6865.590.000.02
TempleAmer0.000.0752.6351.730.000.00
UMKCWAC0.000.0721.0524.710.00-0.03
WisconsinB100.000.0750.0046.260.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.090.0768.4269.240.030.03
DePaulBE0.190.0742.1134.32-0.03-0.02
Texas TechB120.190.0678.9571.810.110.03
ClemsonACC0.190.0684.2173.210.130.03
DukeACC0.090.0689.4785.190.070.04
PittsburghACC0.000.0640.0030.870.00-0.02
RichmondA100.190.0631.5834.35-0.07-0.02
VirginiaACC0.090.0694.4485.440.080.04
Virginia TechACC0.000.0668.4257.780.000.01
FloridaSEC0.110.0373.6871.550.050.01
FurmanSC0.110.0366.6768.500.040.01
TexasB120.110.0363.1657.620.030.01
Utah St.MWC0.110.0345.0045.50-0.01-0.00
Fort WayneSum0.090.0352.6351.700.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.090.0368.4254.090.030.00
Illinois St.MVC0.090.0347.3745.87-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.090.0377.7871.650.050.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.090.0343.7554.09-0.010.00
South AlabamaSB0.090.0350.0045.900.00-0.00
TroySB0.090.0335.2942.76-0.03-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.090.0361.1158.750.020.01
BradleyMVC0.090.0365.0057.870.030.01
Chicago St.WAC0.090.030.003.12-0.09-0.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.090.0327.7838.13-0.04-0.01
ColoradoP120.090.0360.0053.730.020.00
IndianaB100.090.0357.8950.680.010.00
Kent St.MAC0.090.0344.4444.86-0.01-0.00
LibertyBSth0.090.0352.9457.320.010.00
LSUSEC0.090.0361.1153.160.020.00
MarquetteBE0.090.0368.4260.530.030.01
Michigan St.B100.090.0385.0083.180.070.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.0352.9455.040.010.00
St. John'sBE0.090.0347.3742.18-0.00-0.01
Wichita St.Amer0.090.0378.9577.360.050.02
Air ForceMWC0.090.0337.5031.76-0.02-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0330.0036.48-0.04-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.090.0372.2274.900.040.02
ElonCAA0.090.0352.6351.090.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.090.0352.6347.360.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0366.6755.930.030.00
NebraskaB100.090.0366.6759.780.030.01
PacificWCC0.090.0345.0044.46-0.01-0.00
RutgersB100.090.0357.8947.140.01-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.090.0335.2940.48-0.03-0.01
Texas St.SB0.090.0357.8950.210.010.00