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Through games of Dec 21, 2014.


Cornell

Conference:Ivy
Expected RPI:191.1
Current RPI:209
Expected SOS:173
Current SOS:267
Current Record:5-5
Expected Record:13-16
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:6-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-5
Current OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC Record:7-8
Expected OOC RPI:187
Expected OOC SOS:233



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-977.80.12%
19-1093.90.36%
18-11108.21.43%
17-12125.44.24%
16-13142.18.98%
15-14161.115.11%
14-15180.019.19%
13-16199.919.65%
12-17221.015.85%
11-18241.79.17%
10-19259.64.00%
9-20277.71.49%
8-21288.10.34%
7-22303.70.06%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cornell.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14George Mason (192.5)A10A60-68W100%0.0
11-16Loyola MD (288.2)PatA76-71L0%0.0
11-18Colgate (184.4)PatH58-52W100%0.0
11-20South Carolina (41.8)SECN69-45L0%0.0
11-21Penn St. (95.4)B10N71-72L0%0.0
11-23Drexel (236.4)CAAN59-61L0%0.0
11-26Canisius (112.9)MAACH67-60W100%0.0
11-29Binghamton (343.2)AEA54-68W100%0.0
12-6UMass Lowell (202.7)AEH71-60W100%0.0
12-21Radford (159.6)BSthA74-61L0%0.0
12-23Siena (208.8)MAACA0-035%-4.5
12-28Saint Peter's (220.9)MAACH0-063%3.9
12-31Syracuse (74.5)ACCA0-010%-14.8
1-3Buffalo (38.9)MACA0-013%-13.4
1-8Howard (271.3)MEACH0-080%10.0
1-17Columbia (81.1)IvyH0-040%-3.0
1-24Columbia (81.1)IvyA0-016%-11.6
1-30Brown (250.7)IvyH0-078%9.1
1-31Yale (75.7)IvyH0-047%-0.8
2-6Penn (271.3)IvyH0-076%8.2
2-7Princeton (216.2)IvyH0-064%4.3
2-13Dartmouth (188.3)IvyA0-034%-4.8
2-14Harvard (91.4)IvyA0-022%-8.8
2-20Yale (75.7)IvyA0-021%-9.3
2-21Brown (250.7)IvyA0-052%0.5
2-27Harvard (91.4)IvyH0-049%-0.3
2-28Dartmouth (188.3)IvyH0-063%3.7
3-6Princeton (216.2)IvyA0-036%-4.3
3-7Penn (271.3)IvyA0-049%-0.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cornell's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Cornell's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Cornell.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
CornellIvy27.5226.3152.2747.531.25-1.30
BrownIvy0.004.2540.0034.33-0.00-1.33
PrincetonIvy0.284.2533.3341.33-0.09-0.74
DartmouthIvy0.254.2550.0047.870.00-0.18
ColumbiaIvy0.254.2466.6769.040.081.62
PennIvy0.234.2237.5033.06-0.06-1.43
YaleIvy0.004.1966.6762.860.001.08
HarvardIvy0.004.1875.0063.890.001.16
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.251.9636.3648.31-0.07-0.07
ColgatePat5.231.9022.2244.68-2.90-0.20
BinghamtonAE5.251.900.0010.93-5.25-1.49
UMass LowellAE5.001.9055.5652.120.560.08
Loyola MDPat5.001.9022.2225.72-2.78-0.92
SienaMAAC0.501.9033.3348.92-0.17-0.04
CanisiusMAAC5.001.8766.6766.971.670.63
Penn St.B105.281.8290.9153.584.320.13
BuffaloMAC0.531.8177.7870.680.290.75
RadfordBSth5.001.7855.5660.690.560.38
George MasonA105.001.7837.5030.81-1.25-0.68
SyracuseACC0.251.7860.0056.710.050.24
DrexelCAA5.211.7812.5033.65-3.91-0.58
HowardMEAC0.251.7530.0044.66-0.10-0.19
South CarolinaSEC5.001.7262.5064.211.250.49
VermontAE0.250.3740.0053.58-0.050.03
Stony BrookAE0.500.3740.0055.83-0.100.04
Holy CrossPat0.250.3050.0049.140.00-0.01
LafayettePat0.000.3066.6768.370.000.11
RiderMAAC0.000.3050.0052.960.000.02
Boston UniversityPat0.480.2730.0041.58-0.19-0.05
New HampshireAE0.250.2750.0060.240.000.06
HartfordAE0.000.2754.5553.240.000.02
NiagaraMAAC0.250.2612.5029.75-0.19-0.11
BryantNEC0.000.2537.5050.46-0.000.00
AmericanPat0.000.2463.6464.150.000.07
AlbanyAE0.250.2440.0054.66-0.050.02
BucknellPat0.210.2440.0037.24-0.04-0.06
MaristMAAC0.000.249.0915.53-0.00-0.16
MonmouthMAAC0.000.2450.0058.250.000.04
IonaMAAC0.280.2460.0069.180.060.09
ManhattanMAAC0.510.2330.0037.19-0.20-0.06
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.2350.0053.920.000.02
NJITind0.500.2141.6743.31-0.08-0.03
LehighPat0.250.2144.4455.25-0.030.02
St. BonaventureA100.480.2177.7865.410.270.06
NavyPat0.230.2120.0022.49-0.14-0.11
FairfieldMAAC0.000.2040.0037.46-0.00-0.05
MaineAE0.000.1810.0022.40-0.00-0.10
Boston CollegeACC0.230.1860.0038.770.05-0.04
UMBCAE0.250.1818.1825.24-0.16-0.09
La SalleA100.530.1854.5553.370.050.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.500.1855.5660.570.060.04
MassachusettsA100.250.1654.5551.400.020.00
KentuckySEC0.000.15100.0096.240.000.14
Saint Joseph'sA100.530.1560.0042.970.11-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.1537.5039.38-0.00-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.000.1566.6758.480.000.03
FordhamA100.460.1528.5727.36-0.20-0.07
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.1554.5559.550.000.03
ProvidenceBE0.230.1575.0057.450.110.02
ArmyPat0.230.1580.0067.350.140.05
NortheasternCAA0.000.1370.0059.740.000.02
HofstraCAA0.000.1370.0076.570.000.07
WagnerNEC0.000.1312.5031.01-0.00-0.05
ConnecticutAmer0.000.1250.0058.340.000.02
LongwoodBSth0.000.1220.0025.91-0.00-0.06
James MadisonCAA0.500.1263.6456.310.140.02
LibertyBSth0.000.1225.0035.29-0.00-0.04
RichmondA100.250.1260.0057.960.050.02
Rhode IslandA100.250.1266.6773.340.080.06
DuquesneA100.460.1237.5033.78-0.11-0.04
Kent St.MAC0.000.1277.7858.610.000.02
Ohio St.B100.500.1281.8282.150.320.07
AkronMAC0.490.1260.0056.450.100.01
Virginia TechACC0.460.1160.0038.340.09-0.03
Arizona St.P120.250.1054.5549.050.02-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1036.3645.36-0.00-0.01
VirginiaACC0.000.09100.0089.960.000.08
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0936.3646.70-0.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0957.1457.190.000.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.250.090.0023.75-0.25-0.05
College of CharlestonCAA0.280.0945.4545.06-0.03-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.280.0912.5039.50-0.21-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0942.8633.60-0.00-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.000.0950.0051.710.000.00
Miami FLACC0.280.0981.8266.060.180.03
VillanovaBE0.000.09100.0083.420.000.06
FloridaSEC0.000.0963.6464.970.000.03
CaliforniaP120.000.0990.9168.430.000.03
George WashingtonA100.210.0966.6765.780.070.03
IllinoisB100.000.0975.0065.050.000.03
NorthwesternB100.000.0963.6442.700.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0945.4537.63-0.00-0.02
WisconsinB100.000.0890.9188.760.000.07
RutgersB100.000.0854.5532.610.00-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0742.8648.12-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0762.5041.050.00-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0630.0042.78-0.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0642.8649.17-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0013.95-0.00-0.04
DelawareCAA0.000.060.008.46-0.00-0.05
ElonCAA0.000.0644.4451.04-0.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0637.5049.96-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.000.0666.6761.820.000.01
IPFWSum0.000.0650.0054.440.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0650.0037.510.00-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0638.4644.44-0.00-0.01
MercerSC0.000.0644.4443.16-0.00-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.060.008.70-0.00-0.05
TempleAmer0.000.0663.6456.720.000.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0660.0047.200.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0657.1455.280.000.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0625.0044.51-0.00-0.01
CampbellBSth0.250.0625.0043.91-0.13-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0670.0052.050.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.0680.0072.430.000.03
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0620.0029.06-0.00-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0620.0027.60-0.00-0.03
DavidsonA100.000.0688.8976.830.000.03
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0666.6763.320.000.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0618.1820.68-0.00-0.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0680.0076.780.000.03
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0630.0029.93-0.00-0.02
LipscombASun0.000.0630.0039.53-0.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.250.0633.3340.88-0.08-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.060.0039.01-0.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0663.6436.240.00-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.000.0654.5557.750.000.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.060.006.54-0.00-0.05
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0654.5545.090.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0655.5646.470.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.0663.6472.270.000.03
VCUA100.000.0672.7376.010.000.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.210.0616.6735.21-0.14-0.02
USCP120.490.0663.6440.160.13-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.490.0654.5564.030.040.02
ClemsonACC0.280.0660.0043.870.06-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.490.0622.2236.55-0.27-0.02
Notre DameACC0.230.0691.6776.600.190.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0675.0067.220.000.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0685.7170.650.000.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.0630.0028.63-0.00-0.02
OhioMAC0.000.0642.8637.93-0.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0655.5652.210.000.00
DukeACC0.000.06100.0086.740.000.04
IowaB100.000.0666.6759.170.000.01
MarylandB100.000.0691.6772.610.000.03
MichiganB100.000.0650.0040.340.00-0.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0680.0068.200.000.02
PittsburghACC0.000.0670.0052.280.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0318.1830.67-0.00-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0362.5071.550.000.01
ColoradoP120.280.0366.6757.910.090.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0011.84-0.00-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.250.0370.0059.760.100.01
IUPUISum0.000.0327.2728.77-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0350.0071.160.000.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.0366.6755.760.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0318.1827.26-0.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.030.0032.85-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0327.2735.54-0.00-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.280.0337.5027.75-0.07-0.01
TCUB120.250.03100.0068.320.250.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.250.0333.3334.44-0.08-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0350.0039.580.00-0.01
BaylorB120.280.0390.0073.480.220.01
ButlerBE0.250.0372.7368.580.110.01
DaytonA100.000.0380.0069.340.000.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0390.0065.820.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.0380.0063.750.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0370.0052.340.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0344.4437.49-0.00-0.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0340.0032.37-0.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.280.0372.7361.760.130.01
North FloridaASun0.280.0350.0057.910.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.280.0390.9183.170.230.02
OklahomaB120.000.0370.0062.800.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.280.0380.0058.040.170.00
Old DominionCUSA0.280.0390.0082.040.220.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0370.0061.360.000.01
Texas TechB120.250.0390.0055.400.200.00
UMKCWAC0.000.0320.0040.46-0.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.280.0390.9170.260.230.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0360.0057.740.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.0325.0037.11-0.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0375.0066.160.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0330.0038.92-0.00-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0370.0059.860.000.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0363.6461.500.000.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0355.5656.250.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.0354.5541.660.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0380.0053.820.000.00
IndianaB100.000.0381.8263.040.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0333.3328.70-0.00-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0336.3650.65-0.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0372.7367.570.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0084.350.000.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0366.6766.950.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0366.6744.010.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.0372.7374.520.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0375.0061.160.000.01
PurdueB100.000.0366.6759.240.000.01
Seton HallBE0.000.0381.8263.950.000.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0388.8965.680.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0014.49-0.00-0.02