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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Cornell

Conference:Ivy
Expected RPI:260.9
Current RPI:282
Expected SOS:179
Current SOS:279
Current Record:2-5
Expected Record:8-19
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:5-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-7
Current OOC Record:2-5
Expected OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC RPI:228
Expected OOC SOS:127



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-1093.00.01%
16-11110.00.01%
15-12116.50.06%
14-13140.30.29%
13-14161.61.01%
12-15186.63.24%
11-16207.07.28%
10-17228.613.70%
9-18249.918.71%
8-19269.220.73%
7-20286.617.71%
6-21301.710.74%
5-22314.74.77%
4-23322.91.39%
3-24331.20.34%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cornell.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Binghamton (270.8)AEA68-62L0%0.0
11-13Siena (144.9)MAACA89-78L0%0.0
11-16Colgate (231.7)PatH63-67L0%0.0
11-20Lafayette (279.9)PatA75-82W100%0.0
11-22Monmouth (65.5)MAACA76-61L0%0.0
11-26Houston (42.7)AmerA83-53L0%0.0
11-30Northeastern (167.3)CAAH80-77W100%0.0
12-17Wyoming (182.2)MWCA0-020%-10.1
12-19USC (44.4)P12A0-03%-22.4
12-22Troy (265.2)SBN0-052%0.5
12-27Syracuse (39.6)ACCA0-01%-26.9
12-29UMass Lowell (255.3)AEH0-061%3.3
1-2Albany (156.7)AEA0-022%-9.2
1-14Columbia (253.3)IvyH0-052%0.7
1-21Columbia (253.3)IvyA0-032%-5.5
1-27Harvard (224.3)IvyH0-041%-2.9
1-28Dartmouth (310.5)IvyH0-068%5.5
2-3Brown (272.3)IvyH0-058%2.5
2-4Yale (103.3)IvyH0-023%-8.7
2-10Princeton (95.0)IvyA0-010%-15.7
2-11Penn (138.5)IvyA0-014%-12.8
2-17Dartmouth (310.5)IvyA0-048%-0.7
2-18Harvard (224.3)IvyA0-023%-9.0
2-24Penn (138.5)IvyH0-029%-6.6
2-25Princeton (95.0)IvyH0-021%-9.5
3-3Yale (103.3)IvyA0-011%-14.9
3-4Brown (272.3)IvyA0-038%-3.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cornell's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Cornell's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Cornell.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
CornellIvy28.9526.3934.4832.89-8.98-9.03
PrincetonIvy0.604.6125.0062.24-0.301.13
ColumbiaIvy0.714.6142.8641.21-0.10-0.81
HarvardIvy0.004.600.0040.83-0.00-0.84
BrownIvy0.004.5850.0041.690.00-0.76
PennIvy0.004.5840.0056.34-0.000.58
YaleIvy0.004.5733.3362.58-0.001.15
DartmouthIvy0.004.550.0021.97-0.00-2.55
AlbanyAE0.512.2550.0059.770.000.44
ColgatePat7.142.080.0039.29-7.14-0.45
LafayettePat7.142.0540.0033.05-1.43-0.70
MonmouthMAAC7.142.0166.6770.622.380.83
BinghamtonAE7.142.0133.3338.75-2.38-0.45
UMass LowellAE0.001.9825.0040.86-0.00-0.36
SienaMAAC7.141.9416.6748.86-4.76-0.04
HoustonAmer7.141.9380.0075.564.290.98
NortheasternCAA7.141.9366.6749.912.38-0.00
TroySB0.001.9233.3331.66-0.00-0.70
SyracuseACC1.221.9166.6769.190.410.73
USCP120.001.88100.0074.640.000.93
WyomingMWC0.001.8860.0047.420.00-0.10
VermontAE0.600.5062.5071.630.150.21
MaineAE0.510.4316.6725.61-0.34-0.21
Stony BrookAE0.000.3616.6733.82-0.00-0.12
HartfordAE0.000.3312.5022.55-0.00-0.18
MaristMAAC0.000.3242.8635.68-0.00-0.09
Holy CrossPat0.510.2942.8647.69-0.07-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.2828.5750.20-0.000.00
LehighPat0.000.2733.3367.01-0.000.09
Central ConnecticutNEC0.510.2740.0037.65-0.10-0.07
NavyPat0.000.2728.5743.62-0.00-0.03
ArmyPat0.000.2633.3345.58-0.00-0.02
New HampshireAE0.000.2650.0057.480.000.04
QuinnipiacMAAC0.510.2616.6734.31-0.34-0.08
FairfieldMAAC0.000.2683.3362.080.000.06
Boston UniversityPat1.020.2550.0053.530.000.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.2450.0046.780.00-0.02
BucknellPat0.000.2375.0067.660.000.08
Boston CollegeACC0.000.2050.0027.250.00-0.09
DrexelCAA1.110.1942.8636.82-0.16-0.05
Loyola MDPat0.000.1933.3340.49-0.00-0.04
UMBCAE0.000.1980.0055.340.000.02
NiagaraMAAC0.000.1916.6727.03-0.00-0.09
TempleAmer0.000.1771.4363.570.000.05
Miami FLACC0.000.1771.4365.740.000.05
Rhode IslandA100.000.1771.4370.330.000.07
HofstraCAA0.000.1657.1440.550.00-0.03
NJITASun1.310.1642.8650.32-0.190.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.1685.7180.960.000.10
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.600.1560.0052.760.120.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.1533.3341.52-0.00-0.03
HowardMEAC0.000.150.0038.26-0.00-0.03
CaliforniaP120.000.1483.3363.610.000.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.1442.8638.05-0.00-0.03
DelawareCAA0.000.1340.0040.65-0.00-0.02
LibertyBSth0.000.1340.0050.71-0.000.00
WashingtonP120.000.1357.1452.630.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.1385.7155.550.000.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.510.1383.3357.990.340.02
UCFAmer0.000.1383.3374.620.000.06
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.1316.6729.36-0.00-0.05
AmericanPat0.000.1316.6735.65-0.00-0.04
SMUAmer0.000.1257.1469.300.000.05
ConnecticutAmer0.510.1233.3338.76-0.17-0.03
IonaMAAC0.000.1260.0070.140.000.05
ManhattanMAAC0.000.1233.3338.19-0.00-0.03
RiderMAAC0.000.1250.0047.990.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.000.1083.3358.080.000.02
StanfordP120.000.1075.0059.100.000.02
VCUA100.510.1085.7178.150.360.06
George WashingtonA100.510.1057.1444.160.07-0.01
HawaiiBW0.000.1050.0050.940.000.00
BYUWCC0.000.1071.4368.660.000.04
VillanovaBE0.600.10100.0083.120.600.07
VirginiaACC0.000.10100.0082.550.000.07
George MasonA100.600.1057.1442.940.09-0.01
MontanaBSky0.000.1014.2947.44-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.600.1016.6737.09-0.40-0.03
MemphisAmer0.000.0985.7159.740.000.02
FordhamA100.000.0757.1443.680.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0733.3335.92-0.00-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.070.0034.18-0.00-0.02
Seton HallBE0.000.0771.4354.520.000.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0750.0059.670.000.01
La SalleA100.000.0760.0051.780.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0725.0024.66-0.00-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0766.6765.810.000.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0725.0039.28-0.00-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0750.0042.710.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0750.0058.980.000.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0783.3361.490.000.02
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0760.0039.610.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0771.4358.670.000.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.0771.4356.280.000.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0740.0037.44-0.00-0.02
UNLVMWC0.000.0771.4349.590.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.0750.0053.560.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0685.7168.390.000.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0650.0043.490.00-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0650.0045.410.00-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0660.0067.410.000.02
Little RockSB0.000.0660.0057.900.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.0683.3361.150.000.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0650.0043.310.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0657.1464.940.000.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.510.0650.0071.330.000.03
St. John'sBE0.510.0628.5733.92-0.22-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0666.6732.240.00-0.02
ArizonaP120.000.0685.7170.990.000.03
Arizona St.P120.000.0657.1436.050.00-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0662.5056.500.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0675.0047.510.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.000.0683.3358.030.000.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.060.0028.15-0.00-0.03
OregonP120.000.0671.4366.730.000.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0628.5723.76-0.00-0.03
Penn St.B100.710.0662.5043.960.18-0.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0650.0054.490.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0614.2926.81-0.00-0.03
TulsaAmer0.000.0660.0039.200.00-0.01
UCLAP120.000.06100.0083.550.000.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0683.3377.170.000.03
Washington St.P120.000.0650.0036.820.00-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.000.0640.0055.44-0.000.01
Notre DameACC0.000.06100.0075.010.000.03
WagnerNEC0.000.0633.3353.85-0.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0666.6739.720.00-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.0685.7175.950.000.03
North CarolinaACC0.000.0685.7180.010.000.04
South CarolinaSEC0.510.06100.0080.780.510.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.510.060.0027.77-0.51-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0316.6736.35-0.00-0.01
DenverSum0.000.0333.3341.11-0.00-0.01
DePaulBE0.000.0380.0035.960.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.510.0316.6733.69-0.34-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.510.030.0039.35-0.51-0.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0375.0070.470.000.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0340.0057.49-0.000.00
PacificWCC0.000.0350.0049.010.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0375.0074.990.000.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0314.2937.52-0.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0340.0043.86-0.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0013.30-0.00-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0314.2934.56-0.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0320.0036.00-0.00-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0328.5739.44-0.00-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0366.6761.340.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0320.0032.60-0.00-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0383.3350.740.000.00
UABCUSA0.000.0357.1461.940.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0383.3362.840.000.01
CampbellBSth0.000.0325.0033.54-0.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.000.0371.4359.850.000.01
DuquesneA100.000.0337.5034.65-0.00-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.000.0366.6770.930.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0350.0056.260.000.00
IndianaB100.000.0383.3375.060.000.02
Kent St.MAC0.510.0350.0051.820.000.00
LSUSEC0.600.0371.4349.770.26-0.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0350.0061.590.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0024.77-0.00-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0375.0064.960.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0333.3348.73-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0325.0030.93-0.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0383.3378.430.000.02
PepperdineWCC0.000.0350.0035.230.00-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0316.6732.62-0.00-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0328.5727.50-0.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.600.0357.1447.220.09-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0366.6766.100.000.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0340.0027.05-0.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.030.0033.44-0.00-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0333.3338.20-0.00-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0325.0024.28-0.00-0.02
UtahP120.000.0375.0061.040.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.510.030.0024.25-0.51-0.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0366.6753.460.000.00
DukeACC0.000.0387.5078.680.000.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0350.0055.850.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.0385.7162.410.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0350.0047.560.00-0.00
KansasB120.510.0385.7176.170.360.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0371.4350.570.000.00
North FloridaASun0.000.0314.2931.71-0.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.510.0366.6770.740.170.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.510.0350.0064.840.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0385.7162.920.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0371.4352.370.000.00
WisconsinB100.000.0375.0073.840.000.01