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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Cornell

Conference:Ivy
Expected RPI:270.0
Current RPI:270
Expected SOS:186
Current SOS:186
Current Record:7-21
Expected Record:7-21
Current Conf Record:4-10
Expected Conf Record:4-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-7
Current OOC Record:3-11
Expected OOC Record:3-11
Expected OOC RPI:278
Expected OOC SOS:179



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
7-21270.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cornell.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Binghamton (311.0)AEA68-62L0%0.0
11-13Siena (122.0)MAACA89-78L0%0.0
11-16Colgate (294.0)PatH63-67L0%0.0
11-20Lafayette (321.0)PatA75-82W100%0.0
11-22Monmouth (49.0)MAACA76-61L0%0.0
11-26Houston (54.0)AmerA83-53L0%0.0
11-30Northeastern (136.0)CAAH80-77W100%0.0
12-17Wyoming (152.0)MWCA97-78L0%0.0
12-19USC (40.0)P12A79-67L0%0.0
12-22Troy (147.0)SBN84-92L0%0.0
12-23Southeast Missouri St. (274.0)OVCN78-62W100%0.0
12-27Syracuse (84.0)ACCA80-56L0%0.0
12-29UMass Lowell (309.0)AEH96-98L0%0.0
1-2Albany (129.0)AEA69-59L0%0.0
1-14Columbia (262.0)IvyH75-79L0%0.0
1-21Columbia (262.0)IvyA62-67W100%0.0
1-27Harvard (143.0)IvyH71-77L0%0.0
1-28Dartmouth (305.0)IvyH75-62W100%0.0
2-3Brown (284.0)IvyH70-81L0%0.0
2-5Yale (128.0)IvyH71-78L0%0.0
2-10Princeton (47.0)IvyA69-60L0%0.0
2-12Penn (203.0)IvyA82-63L0%0.0
2-17Dartmouth (305.0)IvyA65-69W100%0.0
2-18Harvard (143.0)IvyA87-75L0%0.0
2-24Penn (203.0)IvyH66-69L0%0.0
2-25Princeton (47.0)IvyH60-75L0%0.0
3-3Yale (128.0)IvyA90-63L0%0.0
3-4Brown (284.0)IvyA78-92W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cornell's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Cornell's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Cornell.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
CornellIvy26.3226.3228.6828.68-11.22-11.22
PrincetonIvy4.554.5576.9276.922.452.45
YaleIvy4.524.5257.6957.690.700.70
HarvardIvy4.474.4758.3358.330.750.75
PennIvy4.464.4642.3142.31-0.69-0.69
ColumbiaIvy4.414.4137.5037.50-1.10-1.10
BrownIvy4.394.3938.4638.46-1.01-1.01
DartmouthIvy4.364.3628.0028.00-1.92-1.92
AlbanyAE2.162.1659.3859.380.400.40
ColgatePat2.002.0026.6726.67-0.93-0.93
LafayettePat1.971.9728.5728.57-0.84-0.84
MonmouthMAAC1.961.9681.2581.251.221.22
BinghamtonAE1.931.9328.5728.57-0.83-0.83
UMass LowellAE1.901.9031.0331.03-0.72-0.72
SienaMAAC1.891.8948.4848.48-0.06-0.06
HoustonAmer1.851.8566.6766.670.620.62
NortheasternCAA1.851.8550.0050.000.000.00
TroySB1.841.8457.5857.580.280.28
USCP121.841.8471.8871.880.810.81
SyracuseACC1.841.8454.8454.840.180.18
WyomingMWC1.841.8451.7251.720.060.06
Southeast Missouri St.OVC1.791.7943.3343.33-0.24-0.24
VermontAE0.480.4884.8584.850.340.34
MaineAE0.400.4019.3519.35-0.25-0.25
Stony BrookAE0.390.3958.0658.060.060.06
HartfordAE0.330.3328.1228.12-0.15-0.15
MaristMAAC0.290.2925.0025.00-0.15-0.15
LehighPat0.280.2861.2961.290.060.06
Holy CrossPat0.270.2746.8846.88-0.02-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.260.2653.3353.330.020.02
BryantNEC0.260.2635.4835.48-0.08-0.08
Central ConnecticutNEC0.250.2520.6920.69-0.15-0.15
NavyPat0.250.2548.3948.39-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.250.2538.7138.71-0.06-0.06
New HampshireAE0.240.2458.6258.620.040.04
QuinnipiacMAAC0.240.2432.2632.26-0.08-0.08
Boston UniversityPat0.230.2354.8454.840.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.230.2335.4835.48-0.07-0.07
Loyola MDPat0.210.2146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.210.2176.4776.470.110.11
NiagaraMAAC0.200.2030.3030.30-0.08-0.08
Boston CollegeACC0.190.1928.1228.12-0.08-0.08
Miami FLACC0.190.1965.6265.620.060.06
DrexelCAA0.180.1825.8125.81-0.09-0.09
UMBCAE0.180.1857.1457.140.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.160.1672.7372.730.070.07
TempleAmer0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
NJITASun0.150.1531.0331.03-0.06-0.06
HofstraCAA0.150.1545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.150.1585.2985.290.100.10
WashingtonP120.140.1429.0329.03-0.06-0.06
ConnecticutAmer0.140.1446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
HowardMEAC0.140.1425.0025.00-0.07-0.07
CanisiusMAAC0.130.1354.5554.550.010.01
IonaMAAC0.130.1364.7164.710.040.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.120.1240.6240.62-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.120.1255.1755.170.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.120.1210.0010.00-0.10-0.10
DelawareCAA0.120.1235.4835.48-0.04-0.04
UCFAmer0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
CaliforniaP120.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
PittsburghACC0.120.1248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
AmericanPat0.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
SMUAmer0.110.1188.2488.240.090.09
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.110.1144.4444.44-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.110.1131.2531.25-0.04-0.04
RiderMAAC0.110.1154.5554.550.010.01
MassachusettsA100.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
VCUA100.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
VillanovaBE0.090.0991.1891.180.080.08
George MasonA100.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
BYUWCC0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
HawaiiBW0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
MontanaBSky0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
TowsonCAA0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
MemphisAmer0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
UCLAP120.080.0887.8887.880.060.06
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
Texas St.SB0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
FordhamA100.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0767.8667.860.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.070.0714.2914.29-0.05-0.05
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0761.2961.290.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.060.0662.5062.500.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.060.0628.1228.12-0.03-0.03
IndianaB100.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.060.0628.1228.12-0.03-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
TulaneAmer0.060.0619.3519.35-0.04-0.04
TulsaAmer0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0684.3884.380.040.04
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
William & MaryCAA0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
WagnerNEC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Notre DameACC0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
Penn St.B100.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
Chicago St.WAC0.060.0610.3410.34-0.04-0.04
South FloridaAmer0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
Arizona St.P120.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.050.0584.8584.850.040.04
Oregon St.P120.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
Washington St.P120.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Little RockSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Fort WayneSum0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
NevadaMWC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0377.7877.780.020.02
BradleyMVC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
LSUSEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
OaklandHorz0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0323.0823.08-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
DukeACC0.030.0377.1477.140.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
WisconsinB100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
ColoradoP120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0318.5218.52-0.02-0.02
UtahP120.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
UABCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01