live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Jan 16, 2017.


Cornell

Conference:Ivy
Expected RPI:287.3
Current RPI:288
Expected SOS:186
Current SOS:216
Current Record:3-12
Expected Record:7-21
Current Conf Record:0-1
Expected Conf Record:4-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-7
Current OOC Record:3-11
Expected OOC Record:3-11
Expected OOC RPI:283
Expected OOC SOS:197



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-14157.00.01%
12-16199.10.16%
11-17219.10.93%
10-18235.73.41%
9-19253.49.80%
8-20270.419.07%
7-21287.425.50%
6-22302.723.06%
5-23315.313.15%
4-24325.04.41%
3-25332.20.49%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cornell.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Binghamton (278.3)AEA68-62L0%0.0
11-13Siena (164.5)MAACA89-78L0%0.0
11-16Colgate (307.9)PatH63-67L0%0.0
11-20Lafayette (313.6)PatA75-82W100%0.0
11-22Monmouth (60.1)MAACA76-61L0%0.0
11-26Houston (46.9)AmerA83-53L0%0.0
11-30Northeastern (76.1)CAAH80-77W100%0.0
12-17Wyoming (137.0)MWCA97-78L0%0.0
12-19USC (40.6)P12A79-67L0%0.0
12-22Troy (196.9)SBN84-92L0%0.0
12-23Southeast Missouri St. (308.3)OVCN78-62W100%0.0
12-27Syracuse (102.5)ACCA80-56L0%0.0
12-29UMass Lowell (248.1)AEH96-98L0%0.0
1-2Albany (145.1)AEA69-59L0%0.0
1-14Columbia (227.0)IvyH75-79L0%0.0
1-21Columbia (227.0)IvyA0-025%-7.7
1-27Harvard (138.6)IvyH0-027%-6.9
1-28Dartmouth (307.0)IvyH0-067%5.1
2-3Brown (265.8)IvyH0-061%3.0
2-4Yale (111.3)IvyH0-023%-8.4
2-10Princeton (82.2)IvyA0-07%-16.4
2-11Penn (195.9)IvyA0-018%-10.1
2-17Dartmouth (307.0)IvyA0-046%-1.2
2-18Harvard (138.6)IvyA0-012%-13.2
2-24Penn (195.9)IvyH0-036%-3.9
2-25Princeton (82.2)IvyH0-018%-10.1
3-3Yale (111.3)IvyA0-09%-14.7
3-4Brown (265.8)IvyA0-039%-3.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cornell's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Cornell's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Cornell.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
CornellIvy26.4526.3723.0826.32-14.24-12.49
PrincetonIvy0.194.4460.0064.360.041.28
ColumbiaIvy3.524.4441.6742.51-0.59-0.66
HarvardIvy0.194.4458.3359.830.030.87
BrownIvy0.094.4250.0042.750.00-0.64
PennIvy0.104.4242.8646.11-0.01-0.34
YaleIvy0.094.4157.1463.710.011.21
DartmouthIvy0.004.3921.4321.60-0.00-2.49
AlbanyAE3.732.1747.0656.66-0.220.29
ColgatePat3.852.0111.7620.70-2.94-1.18
LafayettePat3.431.9833.3325.69-1.14-0.96
MonmouthMAAC3.421.9472.2273.071.520.90
BinghamtonAE3.511.9333.3335.86-1.17-0.55
UMass LowellAE3.531.9138.8938.66-0.78-0.43
SienaMAAC3.431.8735.2943.91-1.01-0.23
HoustonAmer3.331.8670.5970.221.370.75
NortheasternCAA3.331.8670.5965.511.370.58
USCP123.541.8583.3371.932.360.81
TroySB3.531.8543.7546.31-0.44-0.14
SyracuseACC3.511.8455.5651.270.390.05
WyomingMWC3.521.8460.0053.950.700.15
Southeast Missouri St.OVC3.331.7929.4136.20-1.37-0.49
VermontAE0.380.4873.6877.320.180.26
MaineAE0.310.4121.0521.86-0.18-0.23
Stony BrookAE0.400.3552.9453.520.020.02
HartfordAE0.090.3231.5829.37-0.03-0.13
MaristMAAC0.270.3031.5829.26-0.10-0.13
Holy CrossPat0.460.2847.3748.91-0.02-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.2722.2235.43-0.00-0.08
LehighPat0.000.2656.2566.290.000.08
Central ConnecticutNEC0.190.2611.7616.67-0.15-0.17
NavyPat0.320.2641.1843.68-0.06-0.03
ArmyPat0.520.2541.1845.55-0.09-0.02
New HampshireAE0.200.2553.3357.150.010.04
QuinnipiacMAAC0.310.2538.8939.13-0.07-0.05
FairfieldMAAC0.190.2553.3354.210.010.02
Boston UniversityPat0.460.2452.9457.140.030.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.230.2450.0047.550.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.190.2268.4271.170.070.09
Boston CollegeACC0.180.2050.0034.750.00-0.06
DrexelCAA0.380.1935.2935.38-0.11-0.05
Loyola MDPat0.300.1850.0047.080.00-0.01
UMBCAE0.200.1862.5058.760.050.03
NiagaraMAAC0.180.1826.3227.77-0.09-0.08
TempleAmer0.000.1652.6353.220.000.01
Miami FLACC0.220.1675.0063.150.110.04
Rhode IslandA100.090.1664.7167.000.030.05
HofstraCAA0.220.1644.4445.47-0.02-0.01
NJITASun0.280.1641.1845.41-0.05-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.190.1588.2486.430.140.11
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.280.1550.0051.540.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.360.1463.1663.750.090.04
HowardMEAC0.130.1412.5028.47-0.10-0.06
Sacred HeartNEC0.190.1342.1142.66-0.03-0.02
CaliforniaP120.190.1372.2266.070.090.04
DelawareCAA0.090.1329.4127.56-0.04-0.06
LibertyBSth0.180.1343.7549.93-0.02-0.00
PittsburghACC0.090.1366.6753.190.030.01
WashingtonP120.000.1347.0642.27-0.00-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.180.1361.1159.190.040.02
UCFAmer0.090.1376.4766.360.050.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.200.1316.6721.63-0.13-0.07
AmericanPat0.090.1223.5329.81-0.05-0.05
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.200.1243.7548.36-0.02-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.270.1237.5043.15-0.07-0.02
SMUAmer0.180.1278.9576.690.100.06
IonaMAAC0.090.1255.5660.550.010.02
ManhattanMAAC0.000.1238.8938.40-0.00-0.03
RiderMAAC0.180.1261.1154.400.040.01
MassachusettsA100.090.1061.1159.210.020.02
VCUA100.100.1077.7873.920.060.05
George WashingtonA100.090.1050.0047.550.00-0.00
StanfordP120.090.1052.9447.220.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.100.1040.0044.09-0.02-0.01
VillanovaBE0.100.1094.7489.170.090.08
BYUWCC0.090.1068.4268.160.030.04
VirginiaACC0.000.1081.2576.190.000.05
George MasonA100.090.1064.7156.530.030.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.0937.5044.66-0.02-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.270.0961.1157.840.060.01
MontanaBSky0.300.0952.6360.450.020.02
MemphisAmer0.090.0972.2264.140.040.02
FordhamA100.000.0735.2931.83-0.00-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.000.0720.0029.47-0.00-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.000.0726.6740.15-0.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.130.0766.6758.210.040.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0753.3361.470.000.02
La SalleA100.000.0766.6762.150.000.02
LongwoodBSth0.000.0726.6725.63-0.00-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0761.1162.130.000.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0731.5839.33-0.00-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.0665.0055.360.000.01
Air ForceMWC0.100.0643.7537.53-0.01-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0623.5328.53-0.00-0.03
Boise St.MWC0.000.0666.6766.780.000.02
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0656.2553.650.000.00
DePaulBE0.200.0642.1130.46-0.03-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.100.0656.2552.000.010.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.0647.0655.40-0.000.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0655.5654.690.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0623.5324.37-0.00-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.0655.5655.680.010.01
UNLVMWC0.100.0650.0045.100.00-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.100.0643.7543.67-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0650.0040.930.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.200.0668.7573.520.070.03
St. John'sBE0.190.0645.0038.60-0.02-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.190.0616.6718.41-0.13-0.04
IndianaB100.180.0666.6763.930.060.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.190.0633.3333.47-0.06-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0664.7165.930.000.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0677.7870.850.000.02
East CarolinaAmer0.090.0647.3741.51-0.00-0.01
ElonCAA0.000.0647.0649.68-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.100.0662.5060.080.020.01
Georgia St.SB0.100.0653.3355.860.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.090.0627.7830.30-0.04-0.02
Little RockSB0.000.0656.2551.280.000.00
Penn St.B100.190.0661.1150.470.040.00
South AlabamaSB0.100.0643.7541.36-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.190.0637.5029.45-0.05-0.02
Texas St.SB0.100.0653.3345.920.01-0.00
TowsonCAA0.090.0650.0052.220.000.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0623.5320.62-0.00-0.03
TulsaAmer0.090.0656.2551.250.010.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0688.2484.300.000.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.100.0668.7570.370.040.02
William & MaryCAA0.090.0642.8647.10-0.01-0.00
Notre DameACC0.090.0688.8977.800.070.03
WagnerNEC0.180.0640.0049.71-0.04-0.00
ArizonaP120.000.0688.8983.100.000.04
Arizona St.P120.000.0650.0044.340.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0664.7147.180.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.0683.3377.690.000.03
North CarolinaACC0.180.0684.2180.580.120.04
OregonP120.090.0688.2482.770.070.04
Oregon St.P120.090.0617.6515.00-0.06-0.04
South CarolinaSEC0.180.0681.2572.930.110.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.180.0614.2929.37-0.13-0.02
UCLAP120.000.0694.7489.330.000.05
Washington St.P120.000.0650.0035.490.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.0317.6529.59-0.07-0.01
FIUCUSA0.100.0312.5021.96-0.08-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.100.0322.2236.06-0.06-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.100.0331.2541.99-0.04-0.01
BelmontOVC0.090.0373.3373.100.040.01
BradleyMVC0.090.0338.8934.48-0.02-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.090.0322.2230.94-0.05-0.01
DenverSum0.100.0361.1157.830.020.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0333.3333.23-0.03-0.01
IllinoisB100.090.0364.7154.360.030.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0355.5653.980.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0331.2539.84-0.00-0.01
NevadaMWC0.100.0383.3378.320.070.02
Northern IowaMVC0.100.0331.2537.15-0.04-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.090.0358.8257.870.020.00
PacificWCC0.100.0338.8934.94-0.02-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0356.2562.950.000.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.100.0333.3333.93-0.03-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.090.0362.5065.700.020.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.090.0327.7829.47-0.04-0.01
UMKCWAC0.090.0338.8940.01-0.02-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.090.0326.6727.57-0.04-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.100.036.2511.84-0.09-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.100.0318.7528.06-0.06-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0328.5731.64-0.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.090.0376.4768.380.050.01
CampbellBSth0.090.0346.6745.24-0.01-0.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0343.7543.63-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.090.0350.0042.110.00-0.00
Fort WayneSum0.090.0368.7569.250.030.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.090.0361.1162.970.020.01
Kent St.MAC0.090.0350.0051.780.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0362.5062.550.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0325.0028.48-0.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.090.0356.2539.400.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.090.0363.1657.750.020.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.090.0311.1123.11-0.07-0.02
OaklandHorz0.090.0370.5972.850.040.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.090.0317.6535.25-0.06-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.100.0361.1158.650.020.01
South DakotaSum0.090.0357.8957.120.010.00
The CitadelSC0.090.0335.2930.57-0.03-0.01
UABCUSA0.100.0358.8263.660.020.01
USC UpstateASun0.090.0350.0047.440.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0317.6524.63-0.06-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0364.7160.750.000.01
ColoradoP120.090.0352.9454.280.010.00
DukeACC0.000.0377.7873.720.000.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.090.0353.8558.520.010.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.0388.8978.090.000.02
GeorgetownBE0.090.0352.6348.240.00-0.00
KansasB120.090.0394.4481.600.080.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.090.0350.0051.420.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.090.0346.1551.22-0.010.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0366.6750.950.000.00
North FloridaASun0.090.0318.7530.20-0.05-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.090.0323.5321.79-0.05-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.090.0347.0640.37-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.090.0364.7161.890.030.01
Texas A&MSEC0.090.0356.2553.010.010.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.090.0314.2927.63-0.06-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.090.0364.7170.610.030.01
UtahP120.090.0366.6764.720.030.01
Virginia TechACC0.090.0376.4762.000.050.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0358.8252.990.000.00
WisconsinB100.090.0382.3581.030.060.02