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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Cornell

Conference:Ivy
Expected RPI:244.0
Current RPI:244
Expected SOS:173
Current SOS:173
Current Record:9-18
Expected Record:9-18
Current Conf Record:3-11
Expected Conf Record:3-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-6
Current OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC RPI:175
Expected OOC SOS:198



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
9-18244.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cornell.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Georgia Tech (69.0)ACCA116-81L0%0.0
11-16Colgate (241.0)PatA98-101W100%0.0
11-18Binghamton (299.0)AEH76-59W100%0.0
11-21Canisius (220.0)MAACA87-62L0%0.0
11-25Pittsburgh (53.0)ACCA93-49L0%0.0
11-29UMass Lowell (261.0)AEA80-77L0%0.0
12-1Siena (104.0)MAACH81-80W100%0.0
12-5Lafayette (329.0)PatH85-67W100%0.0
12-19Syracuse (72.0)ACCA67-46L0%0.0
12-23Monmouth (52.0)MAACH69-78L0%0.0
12-28Saint Peter's (208.0)MAACA62-65W100%0.0
1-2Albany (107.0)AEH70-75L0%0.0
1-6Howard (328.0)MEACA81-84W100%0.0
1-16Columbia (132.0)IvyA74-70L0%0.0
1-23Columbia (132.0)IvyH68-79L0%0.0
1-29Harvard (193.0)IvyA65-77W100%0.0
1-30Dartmouth (284.0)IvyA73-77W100%0.0
2-5Brown (312.0)IvyA86-80L0%0.0
2-6Yale (44.0)IvyA83-52L0%0.0
2-12Princeton (39.0)IvyH56-85L0%0.0
2-13Penn (283.0)IvyH84-92L0%0.0
2-19Dartmouth (284.0)IvyH66-78L0%0.0
2-20Harvard (193.0)IvyH74-76L0%0.0
2-26Penn (283.0)IvyA79-67L0%0.0
2-27Princeton (39.0)IvyA74-60L0%0.0
3-4Yale (44.0)IvyH64-88L0%0.0
3-5Brown (312.0)IvyH75-71W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cornell's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Cornell's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Cornell.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
CornellIvy26.3326.3335.3435.34-7.72-7.72
PennIvy4.574.5732.0032.00-1.65-1.65
PrincetonIvy4.574.5776.0076.002.382.38
ColumbiaIvy4.554.5562.9662.961.181.18
HarvardIvy4.554.5542.3142.31-0.70-0.70
BrownIvy4.544.5424.0024.00-2.36-2.36
YaleIvy4.544.5476.0076.002.362.36
DartmouthIvy4.544.5432.0032.00-1.63-1.63
Saint Peter'sMAAC2.192.1948.2848.28-0.08-0.08
AlbanyAE2.112.1173.3373.330.980.98
CanisiusMAAC2.092.0940.6240.62-0.39-0.39
LafayettePat2.082.0820.6920.69-1.22-1.22
BinghamtonAE2.082.0827.5927.59-0.93-0.93
SienaMAAC2.052.0565.6265.620.640.64
ColgatePat2.032.0342.8642.86-0.29-0.29
MonmouthMAAC2.032.0378.7978.791.171.17
SyracuseACC2.002.0058.0658.060.320.32
PittsburghACC1.991.9963.3363.330.530.53
HowardMEAC1.981.9834.4834.48-0.62-0.62
UMass LowellAE1.971.9733.3333.33-0.66-0.66
Georgia TechACC1.971.9756.2556.250.250.25
FairfieldMAAC0.490.4959.3859.380.090.09
VermontAE0.420.4260.6160.610.090.09
MaristMAAC0.400.4023.3323.33-0.21-0.21
New HampshireAE0.390.3958.6258.620.070.07
HartfordAE0.390.3928.1228.12-0.17-0.17
NiagaraMAAC0.350.3521.8821.88-0.20-0.20
MaineAE0.320.3226.6726.67-0.15-0.15
RiderMAAC0.320.3239.3939.39-0.07-0.07
ManhattanMAAC0.320.3241.9441.94-0.05-0.05
Stony BrookAE0.320.3280.0080.000.190.19
LehighPat0.320.3251.6151.610.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.310.3154.8454.840.030.03
IonaMAAC0.310.3168.7568.750.120.12
BryantNEC0.300.3023.3323.33-0.16-0.16
Holy CrossPat0.290.2942.4242.42-0.04-0.04
BucknellPat0.290.2955.1755.170.030.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.270.2713.7913.79-0.20-0.20
QuinnipiacMAAC0.260.2630.0030.00-0.10-0.10
UMBCAE0.250.2521.8821.88-0.14-0.14
NJITASun0.230.2353.3353.330.020.02
NavyPat0.230.2356.2556.250.030.03
ArmyPat0.220.2258.0658.060.030.03
Boston CollegeACC0.220.2221.8821.88-0.12-0.12
Saint Joseph'sA100.200.2079.4179.410.120.12
DukeACC0.180.1869.7069.700.070.07
Notre DameACC0.180.1865.6265.620.050.05
WoffordSC0.160.1643.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.160.1629.0329.03-0.07-0.07
Miami FLACC0.160.1678.1278.120.090.09
USCP120.150.1563.6463.640.040.04
Loyola MDPat0.150.1530.0030.00-0.06-0.06
North CarolinaACC0.150.1582.3582.350.090.09
LouisvilleACC0.140.1474.1974.190.070.07
ClemsonACC0.140.1454.8454.840.010.01
SMUAmer0.140.1483.3383.330.090.09
ProvidenceBE0.130.1369.7069.700.050.05
Sacred HeartNEC0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.130.1323.3323.33-0.07-0.07
Robert MorrisNEC0.130.1331.2531.25-0.05-0.05
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.130.1366.6766.670.040.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
AmericanPat0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.120.1245.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.120.1273.3373.330.050.05
Florida St.ACC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
VirginiaACC0.110.1178.7978.790.070.07
LIU BrooklynNEC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
George MasonA100.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.1016.6716.67-0.07-0.07
La SalleA100.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Seton HallBE0.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
MassachusettsA100.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
VillanovaBE0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
DrexelCAA0.100.1020.0020.00-0.06-0.06
St. Francis NYNEC0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.090.0919.3519.35-0.06-0.06
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0772.4172.410.030.03
IllinoisB100.070.0744.1244.12-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.070.0732.2632.26-0.02-0.02
MarylandB100.070.0775.0075.000.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
StanfordP120.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
WashingtonP120.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
AuburnSEC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.070.0768.7568.750.020.02
KansasB120.070.0787.8887.880.050.05
NortheasternCAA0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
OklahomaB120.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
DelawareCAA0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Kansas St.B120.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0670.5970.590.030.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
PurdueB100.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
RadfordBSth0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
WisconsinB100.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
HofstraCAA0.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
FordhamA100.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
TCUB120.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
Michigan St.B100.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
DavidsonA100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0358.6258.620.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0324.2424.24-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Green BayHorz0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0344.1244.12-0.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.030.0335.2935.29-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
DaytonA100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
UCLAP120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00