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Through games of Jan 22, 2018.


Cornell

Conference:Ivy
Expected RPI:279.9
Current RPI:226
Expected SOS:256
Current SOS:183
Current Record:5-10
Expected Record:9-17
Current Conf Record:0-3
Expected Conf Record:4-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-8
Current OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:193
Expected OOC SOS:210



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-12181.20.10%
13-13202.30.59%
12-14221.92.48%
11-15239.97.86%
10-16257.817.26%
9-17275.224.59%
8-18292.224.64%
7-19307.515.82%
6-20319.65.79%
5-21329.70.86%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cornell.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Syracuse (45.2)ACCA77-45L0%0.0
11-13Binghamton (282.6)AEH94-84W100%0.0
11-16Colgate (220.6)PatA72-61L0%0.0
11-19UMass Lowell (309.2)AEA98-78L0%0.0
11-24Toledo (71.5)MACH80-77W100%0.0
11-27Duquesne (212.7)A10A71-78W100%0.0
12-2Northeastern (80.1)CAAA84-66L0%0.0
12-16Longwood (334.3)BSthA62-69W100%0.0
12-20Lafayette (311.5)PatH80-71W100%0.0
12-23Niagara (187.6)MAACH86-89L0%0.0
12-28Delaware (225.4)CAAA97-96L0%0.0
12-30Auburn (18.1)SECA98-77L0%0.0
1-12Penn (173.5)IvyA69-61L0%0.0
1-13Princeton (140.5)IvyA91-54L0%0.0
1-20Columbia (278.4)IvyA88-62L0%0.0
1-27Columbia (278.4)IvyH0-043%-1.8
2-2Dartmouth (318.6)IvyH0-060%2.7
2-3Harvard (177.8)IvyH0-030%-5.8
2-9Brown (260.9)IvyA0-030%-5.9
2-10Yale (201.7)IvyA0-015%-11.3
2-16Princeton (140.5)IvyH0-021%-8.8
2-17Penn (173.5)IvyH0-029%-6.2
2-23Yale (201.7)IvyH0-033%-4.9
2-24Brown (260.9)IvyH0-052%0.5
3-2Harvard (177.8)IvyA0-014%-12.2
3-3Dartmouth (318.6)IvyA0-037%-3.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cornell's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Cornell's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Cornell.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
CornellIvy26.3726.3840.3533.97-5.09-8.45
PennIvy3.734.7662.5061.000.931.05
ColumbiaIvy3.714.7514.2928.40-2.65-2.05
YaleIvy0.094.7341.1845.51-0.02-0.42
PrincetonIvy3.644.7350.0057.980.000.75
HarvardIvy0.094.7337.5044.28-0.02-0.54
BrownIvy0.094.7250.0043.960.00-0.57
DartmouthIvy0.004.6821.4324.230.00-2.41
ColgatePat3.712.1347.0649.21-0.22-0.03
LafayettePat3.622.1323.5328.48-1.92-0.92
DelawareCAA3.512.0944.4440.97-0.39-0.38
UMass LowellAE3.422.0629.4131.42-1.41-0.77
NortheasternCAA3.422.0661.1161.900.760.49
LongwoodBSth3.532.0317.6516.75-2.29-1.35
BinghamtonAE3.522.0344.4441.36-0.39-0.35
ToledoMAC3.522.0270.5970.011.450.81
SyracuseACC3.521.9966.6759.991.170.40
AuburnSEC3.331.9288.8976.222.591.01
DuquesneA103.331.9273.6860.031.580.39
NiagaraMAAC3.331.9255.0051.480.330.06
AlbanyAE0.380.3871.4370.250.160.16
VermontAE0.180.3875.0077.870.090.21
QuinnipiacMAAC0.280.3235.0031.82-0.08-0.12
NavyPat0.480.3160.0055.160.100.03
MaineAE0.200.2810.5314.83-0.16-0.20
Stony BrookAE0.200.2836.8445.19-0.05-0.03
Loyola MDPat0.370.2822.2228.66-0.20-0.12
ArmyPat0.370.2861.1160.440.080.06
Boston UniversityPat0.270.2750.0053.280.000.02
LehighPat0.280.2738.8944.74-0.06-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.190.2750.0051.640.000.01
MonmouthMAAC0.280.2627.7841.03-0.12-0.05
Boston CollegeACC0.200.2465.0054.600.060.02
New HampshireAE0.260.2433.3340.10-0.09-0.05
St. BonaventureA100.250.2266.6768.750.080.08
BryantNEC0.000.219.5217.120.00-0.14
Holy CrossPat0.190.2130.0032.58-0.07-0.07
MaristMAAC0.260.2021.0521.99-0.15-0.11
George WashingtonA100.180.2045.0043.49-0.02-0.03
TowsonCAA0.100.2063.1665.980.030.06
NJITASun0.280.1838.8942.58-0.06-0.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.270.1830.0033.48-0.11-0.06
VillanovaBE0.300.1794.7490.310.270.14
BucknellPat0.270.1761.9068.000.060.06
ConnecticutAmer0.380.1752.6347.380.02-0.01
UMBCAE0.190.1755.5655.550.020.02
DrexelCAA0.180.1730.0030.97-0.07-0.06
MassachusettsA100.170.1750.0046.810.00-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.360.160.008.42-0.36-0.14
HofstraCAA0.260.1657.8959.500.040.03
DaytonA100.270.1647.3750.94-0.010.00
IonaMAAC0.170.1660.0064.130.030.05
LIU BrooklynNEC0.180.1440.0042.51-0.04-0.02
Notre DameACC0.180.1463.1661.000.050.03
AmericanPat0.190.1425.0026.03-0.09-0.07
CanisiusMAAC0.000.1461.9063.170.000.04
HartfordAE0.180.1350.0045.930.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.190.1347.0644.92-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.180.1366.6765.630.060.04
ElonCAA0.090.1352.6351.090.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.260.1325.0028.25-0.13-0.06
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.260.1322.2227.31-0.15-0.06
William & MaryCAA0.180.1364.7160.010.050.03
FordhamA100.080.1331.5829.03-0.03-0.05
ManhattanMAAC0.000.1350.0050.860.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.100.1341.1839.14-0.02-0.03
George MasonA100.350.1345.0041.29-0.04-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.180.1338.8944.07-0.04-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.350.1372.2274.940.150.06
Central ConnecticutNEC0.090.1152.3848.530.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.200.1161.9055.820.050.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.1083.3381.450.000.07
St. Francis NYNEC0.080.1033.3335.21-0.03-0.03
WisconsinB100.090.1050.0046.270.00-0.01
BYUWCC0.180.1080.9576.240.110.05
Gardner WebbBSth0.180.1038.8940.78-0.04-0.02
KentuckySEC0.000.1073.6868.040.000.04
Miami FLACC0.100.1077.7870.410.050.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.190.1072.2274.730.080.05
MinnesotaB100.080.1063.6457.610.020.02
WinthropBSth0.090.1050.0059.430.000.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.1052.6343.040.00-0.01
La SalleA100.180.1040.0042.69-0.04-0.01
TempleAmer0.190.1052.6351.740.010.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.170.1042.1146.09-0.03-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.090.1046.6747.00-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.170.0940.0030.88-0.03-0.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0742.1145.980.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0755.0050.370.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.0770.0060.470.000.02
ButlerBE0.100.0766.6763.070.030.02
Cal PolyBW0.100.0723.5328.20-0.05-0.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0756.2556.820.000.01
CampbellBSth0.090.0747.0647.41-0.01-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.090.0725.0031.44-0.05-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.100.0723.5332.57-0.05-0.02
HawaiiBW0.100.0768.7564.010.040.02
High PointBSth0.090.0743.7549.22-0.01-0.00
LibertyBSth0.090.0750.0054.180.000.01
PresbyterianBSth0.090.0727.7827.11-0.04-0.03
RadfordBSth0.090.0757.8958.880.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0790.4888.970.000.05
UNC AshevilleBSth0.090.0752.6358.610.000.01
USCP120.100.0771.4368.300.040.03
WoffordSC0.000.0768.7563.660.000.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.180.0768.7567.610.070.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.0717.6527.340.00-0.03
CreightonBE0.000.0775.0070.720.000.03
HowardMEAC0.100.0710.5326.29-0.08-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0716.6724.900.00-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0726.3230.450.00-0.03
TCUB120.000.0775.0067.830.000.02
UMKCWAC0.100.0721.0524.76-0.06-0.03
St. Francis PANEC0.170.0752.9459.250.010.01
VMISC0.180.0725.0024.14-0.09-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.180.0744.4444.91-0.02-0.01
RichmondA100.090.0631.5834.35-0.03-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.0661.1158.710.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.090.0662.5058.710.020.01
OhioMAC0.090.0647.0648.43-0.01-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.090.0652.9452.250.010.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.170.0620.0023.33-0.10-0.03
KansasB120.180.0684.2179.760.120.04
OaklandHorz0.180.0661.9065.150.040.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.180.0620.0040.93-0.11-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.090.0668.4259.020.030.01
ArkansasSEC0.090.0668.4264.160.030.02
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0666.6755.900.030.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.170.0617.6534.76-0.11-0.02
Saint LouisA100.080.0647.3746.93-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0661.1151.910.000.00
VirginiaACC0.090.0694.7486.110.080.04
Wake ForestACC0.090.0642.1140.46-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.090.0652.6345.860.00-0.01
Arizona St.P120.090.0378.9576.160.050.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.090.0370.0071.220.040.01
IllinoisB100.090.0345.0043.62-0.01-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.090.0380.0078.870.060.02
WagnerNEC0.090.0364.7164.560.030.01
BradleyMVC0.090.0365.0057.890.030.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.090.0329.4133.20-0.04-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.090.0317.6519.29-0.06-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.090.0352.6347.500.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.090.0366.6768.540.030.01
Montana St.BSky0.090.0350.0047.650.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.0333.3340.35-0.03-0.01
Ohio St.B100.090.0381.8276.870.060.02
StanfordP120.090.0355.0050.330.010.00
Utah St.MWC0.090.0345.0045.47-0.01-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0358.8249.740.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.090.0321.0525.99-0.05-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.090.0338.8943.36-0.02-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.090.0368.4263.610.030.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0347.0641.380.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.090.0368.4269.260.030.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.0310.0016.77-0.06-0.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0384.2173.180.000.01
DavidsonA100.000.0358.8261.440.000.01
DukeACC0.000.0389.4785.240.000.02
FloridaSEC0.000.0373.6871.600.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.090.0373.6869.660.040.01
GeorgetownBE0.090.0368.4254.080.030.00
Indiana St.MVC0.090.0344.4446.03-0.01-0.00
LamarSlnd0.080.0350.0054.900.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.0378.9569.820.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.0361.1153.190.000.00
MarylandB100.090.0366.6763.130.030.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0315.0020.28-0.06-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.0372.2258.880.040.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.030.0010.26-0.08-0.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0366.6763.150.000.01
Murray St.OVC0.090.0370.5975.960.040.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.0376.1972.570.000.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0355.5657.250.010.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0365.0056.350.000.00
RiderMAAC0.080.0365.0065.330.020.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0357.1460.410.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0350.0048.730.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.080.0328.5729.93-0.03-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0355.0052.480.010.00
StetsonASun0.080.0333.3336.93-0.03-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.090.0372.2268.930.040.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0368.4263.970.000.01
UABCUSA0.090.0361.1164.150.020.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0360.0062.010.020.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0336.8435.580.00-0.01
VCUA100.080.0360.0059.710.020.01
Virginia TechACC0.090.0370.0060.400.040.01