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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Cornell

Conference:Ivy
Expected RPI:227.0
Current RPI:227
Expected SOS:204
Current SOS:204
Current Record:12-17
Expected Record:12-17
Current Conf Record:5-9
Expected Conf Record:5-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-6
Current OOC Record:7-8
Expected OOC Record:7-8
Expected OOC RPI:215
Expected OOC SOS:264



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-17227.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cornell.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14George Mason (221.0)A10A60-68W100%0.0
11-16Loyola MD (270.0)PatA76-71L0%0.0
11-18Colgate (194.0)PatH58-52W100%0.0
11-20South Carolina (91.0)SECN69-45L0%0.0
11-21Penn St. (108.0)B10N71-72L0%0.0
11-23Drexel (243.0)CAAN59-61L0%0.0
11-26Canisius (180.0)MAACH67-60W100%0.0
11-29Binghamton (332.0)AEA54-68W100%0.0
12-6UMass Lowell (266.0)AEH71-60W100%0.0
12-21Radford (154.0)BSthA74-61L0%0.0
12-23Siena (261.0)MAACA57-75W100%0.0
12-28Saint Peter's (233.0)MAACH52-59L0%0.0
12-31Syracuse (69.0)ACCA61-44L0%0.0
1-3Buffalo (28.0)MACA92-73L0%0.0
1-8Howard (255.0)MEACH70-60W100%0.0
1-17Columbia (196.0)IvyH45-48L0%0.0
1-24Columbia (196.0)IvyA47-57W100%0.0
1-30Brown (248.0)IvyH57-49W100%0.0
1-31Yale (64.0)IvyH57-65L0%0.0
2-6Penn (254.0)IvyH69-71L0%0.0
2-7Princeton (191.0)IvyH68-60W100%0.0
2-13Dartmouth (186.0)IvyA72-81W100%0.0
2-14Harvard (52.0)IvyA61-40L0%0.0
2-20Yale (64.0)IvyA62-51L0%0.0
2-21Brown (248.0)IvyA57-56L0%0.0
2-27Harvard (52.0)IvyH57-49W100%0.0
2-28Dartmouth (186.0)IvyH45-56L0%0.0
3-6Princeton (191.0)IvyA66-53L0%0.0
3-7Penn (254.0)IvyA79-72L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cornell's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Cornell's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Cornell.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
CornellIvy26.2826.2842.1142.11-4.15-4.15
YaleIvy4.254.2564.2964.291.211.21
BrownIvy4.244.2437.0437.04-1.10-1.10
PrincetonIvy4.244.2451.8551.850.160.16
DartmouthIvy4.244.2450.0050.000.000.00
HarvardIvy4.234.2376.0076.002.202.20
ColumbiaIvy4.234.2344.0044.00-0.51-0.51
PennIvy4.214.2126.9226.92-1.94-1.94
Saint Peter'sMAAC1.961.9645.4545.45-0.18-0.18
UMass LowellAE1.901.9040.7440.74-0.35-0.35
ColgatePat1.901.9048.3948.39-0.06-0.06
BinghamtonAE1.901.9017.2417.24-1.25-1.25
Loyola MDPat1.901.9034.4834.48-0.59-0.59
SienaMAAC1.891.8936.6736.67-0.50-0.50
CanisiusMAAC1.861.8655.1755.170.190.19
Penn St.B101.821.8251.5251.520.060.06
BuffaloMAC1.811.8170.9770.970.760.76
George MasonA101.781.7827.5927.59-0.80-0.80
RadfordBSth1.781.7860.7160.710.380.38
SyracuseACC1.781.7856.6756.670.240.24
DrexelCAA1.781.7835.7135.71-0.51-0.51
HowardMEAC1.751.7546.4346.43-0.13-0.13
South CarolinaSEC1.721.7248.3948.39-0.06-0.06
Stony BrookAE0.390.3965.6265.620.120.12
VermontAE0.360.3656.6756.670.050.05
Holy CrossPat0.320.3244.8344.83-0.03-0.03
RiderMAAC0.310.3165.6265.620.100.10
LafayettePat0.290.2961.2961.290.070.07
NiagaraMAAC0.280.2826.6726.67-0.13-0.13
New HampshireAE0.270.2758.6258.620.050.05
HartfordAE0.260.2644.8344.83-0.03-0.03
AmericanPat0.260.2651.5251.520.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.260.2641.3841.38-0.04-0.04
MonmouthMAAC0.250.2554.5554.550.020.02
IonaMAAC0.250.2576.4776.470.130.13
ManhattanMAAC0.250.2559.3859.380.050.05
BryantNEC0.240.2451.6151.610.010.01
AlbanyAE0.230.2375.0075.000.120.12
NavyPat0.230.2338.7138.71-0.05-0.05
BucknellPat0.230.2356.2556.250.030.03
MaristMAAC0.230.2321.8821.88-0.13-0.13
QuinnipiacMAAC0.220.2250.0050.000.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.220.2222.5822.58-0.12-0.12
NJITind0.210.2156.0056.000.030.03
LehighPat0.200.2051.7251.720.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.200.2058.0658.060.030.03
MaineAE0.180.1810.0010.00-0.14-0.14
Boston CollegeACC0.180.1840.6240.62-0.03-0.03
UMBCAE0.180.1813.3313.33-0.13-0.13
Sacred HeartNEC0.170.1745.1645.16-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.170.1751.5251.520.010.01
FordhamA100.170.1730.0030.00-0.07-0.07
MassachusettsA100.150.1553.1253.120.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.150.1541.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.150.1525.0025.00-0.07-0.07
VanderbiltSEC0.150.1558.0658.060.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.150.1566.6766.670.050.05
KentuckySEC0.140.14100.00100.000.140.14
Norfolk St.MEAC0.140.1458.0658.060.020.02
ArmyPat0.140.1448.2848.28-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.130.1358.8258.820.020.02
WagnerNEC0.130.1331.0331.03-0.05-0.05
HofstraCAA0.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
NortheasternCAA0.120.1267.6567.650.040.04
ConnecticutAmer0.120.1258.8258.820.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.120.1248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.120.1228.1228.12-0.05-0.05
Rhode IslandA100.120.1270.0070.000.050.05
LibertyBSth0.120.1214.2914.29-0.08-0.08
College of CharlestonCAA0.120.1227.2727.27-0.05-0.05
RichmondA100.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
DuquesneA100.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
Virginia TechACC0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Ohio St.B100.110.1169.7069.700.040.04
VirginiaACC0.090.0990.6290.620.070.07
Arizona St.P120.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
VillanovaBE0.090.0994.1294.120.080.08
William & MaryCAA0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
WinthropBSth0.090.0955.1755.170.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.090.0963.6463.640.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.090.0940.6240.62-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
UNC AshevilleBSth0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
NorthwesternB100.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0871.4371.430.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
IowaB100.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
WisconsinB100.080.0891.1891.180.060.06
RutgersB100.080.0831.2531.25-0.03-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
HoustonAmer0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
IPFWSum0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
MercerSC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
TempleAmer0.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.060.0616.1316.13-0.04-0.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0659.2659.260.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
DelawareCAA0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
ElonCAA0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
High PointBSth0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0658.3358.330.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
San DiegoWCC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.060.060.000.00-0.06-0.06
TowsonCAA0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
DavidsonA100.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Saint LouisA100.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.060.0674.2974.290.030.03
CampbellBSth0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Notre DameACC0.060.0685.2985.290.040.04
DukeACC0.060.0687.8887.880.040.04
PittsburghACC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
USCP120.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Miami OHMAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
OhioMAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
MichiganB100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
MarylandB100.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
MinnesotaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
NebraskaB100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
ColoradoP120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.036.906.90-0.03-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
IUPUISum0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0375.8675.860.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
ButlerBE0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
DaytonA100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0390.9190.910.020.02
OklahomaB120.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0377.4277.420.020.02
Texas TechB120.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0368.5768.570.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0341.1841.18-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Iowa St.B120.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
LSUSEC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
IndianaB100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02