live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Nov 22, 2014.


Cornell

Conference:Ivy
Expected RPI:261.9
Current RPI:216
Expected SOS:256
Current SOS:203
Current Record:2-3
Expected Record:11-17
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:6-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-6
Current OOC Record:2-3
Expected OOC Record:6-8
Expected OOC RPI:260
Expected OOC SOS:293



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-9123.00.01%
18-10131.40.17%
17-11157.20.42%
16-12170.21.70%
15-13191.14.29%
14-14212.28.26%
13-15231.213.24%
12-16251.917.90%
11-17270.519.02%
10-18288.315.85%
9-19303.610.65%
8-20316.45.73%
7-21325.81.93%
6-22334.80.70%
5-23336.40.11%
4-24347.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cornell.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14George Mason (227.3)A10A60-68W100%0.0
11-16Loyola MD (272.3)PatA76-71L0%0.0
11-18Colgate (206.6)PatH58-52W100%0.0
11-20South Carolina (83.4)SECN69-45L0%0.0
11-21Penn St. (122.0)B10N71-72L0%0.0
11-26Canisius (141.3)MAACH0-043%-2.1
11-29Binghamton (276.6)AEA0-047%-0.9
12-6UMass Lowell (294.7)AEH0-077%8.9
12-21Radford (217.3)BSthA0-034%-5.1
12-23Siena (145.2)MAACA0-019%-10.4
12-28Saint Peter's (299.8)MAACH0-068%5.5
12-31Syracuse (34.2)ACCA0-03%-22.5
1-3Buffalo (78.0)MACA0-016%-12.1
1-8Howard (305.9)MEACH0-073%7.4
1-17Columbia (131.8)IvyH0-035%-4.5
1-24Columbia (131.8)IvyA0-017%-11.7
1-30Brown (267.8)IvyH0-063%4.0
1-31Yale (86.0)IvyH0-031%-6.0
2-6Penn (313.4)IvyH0-072%6.9
2-7Princeton (253.8)IvyH0-058%2.4
2-13Dartmouth (291.9)IvyA0-045%-1.6
2-14Harvard (76.9)IvyA0-09%-15.9
2-20Yale (86.0)IvyA0-014%-13.2
2-21Brown (267.8)IvyA0-039%-3.2
2-27Harvard (76.9)IvyH0-023%-8.7
2-28Dartmouth (291.9)IvyH0-068%5.5
3-6Princeton (253.8)IvyA0-034%-4.8
3-7Penn (313.4)IvyA0-049%-0.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cornell's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Cornell's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Cornell.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
CornellIvy31.6726.3443.4841.02-4.13-4.73
BrownIvy0.004.4125.0036.42-0.00-1.20
DartmouthIvy0.004.410.0035.00-0.00-1.32
PrincetonIvy1.254.4125.0039.87-0.62-0.89
ColumbiaIvy0.004.4150.0061.710.001.03
PennIvy0.004.380.0024.54-0.00-2.23
YaleIvy0.004.3666.6761.410.000.99
HarvardIvy0.004.3450.0066.650.001.45
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.002.040.0028.18-0.00-0.89
UMass LowellAE0.001.9850.0034.940.00-0.60
ColgatePat10.001.9750.0042.580.00-0.29
BinghamtonAE0.001.970.0034.03-0.00-0.63
Loyola MDPat10.001.9733.3329.55-3.33-0.81
SienaMAAC0.001.9733.3358.88-0.000.35
CanisiusMAAC0.001.9466.6756.640.000.26
George MasonA1010.001.8533.3320.68-3.33-1.09
Penn St.B1010.001.8566.6745.353.33-0.17
BuffaloMAC0.001.8566.6759.800.000.36
RadfordBSth0.001.8533.3348.05-0.00-0.07
SyracuseACC0.001.8575.0067.200.000.64
HowardMEAC0.001.820.0035.83-0.00-0.52
South CarolinaSEC10.001.7933.3352.60-3.330.09
Stony BrookAE0.000.3933.3364.76-0.000.11
VermontAE0.000.3833.3358.93-0.000.07
Holy CrossPat0.000.31100.0063.360.000.08
LafayettePat0.000.3175.0064.270.000.09
RiderMAAC0.000.3166.6751.290.000.01
New HampshireAE0.000.280.0041.97-0.00-0.05
Boston UniversityPat0.000.2833.3359.57-0.000.05
HartfordAE0.000.2875.0042.500.00-0.04
NiagaraMAAC0.000.2833.3324.07-0.00-0.14
BryantNEC0.000.2650.0054.900.000.03
AmericanPat0.000.2550.0054.620.000.02
AlbanyAE0.000.2533.3362.56-0.000.06
BucknellPat0.000.2525.0035.71-0.00-0.07
MonmouthMAAC0.000.2566.6758.230.000.04
ManhattanMAAC0.000.2533.3357.45-0.000.04
MaristMAAC0.000.250.0034.55-0.00-0.08
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.2466.6763.960.000.07
NJITind0.000.2225.0025.21-0.00-0.11
St. BonaventureA100.000.2266.6752.550.000.01
LehighPat0.000.220.0036.87-0.00-0.06
IonaMAAC0.000.2166.6766.670.000.07
FairfieldMAAC0.000.2125.0031.12-0.00-0.08
MaineAE0.000.190.0018.23-0.00-0.12
UMBCAE1.250.190.0036.19-1.25-0.05
Boston CollegeACC0.000.1950.0041.480.00-0.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.1950.0037.890.00-0.05
NavyPat0.000.180.0032.62-0.00-0.06
MassachusettsA100.000.1675.0060.410.000.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.1650.0038.370.00-0.04
KentuckySEC0.000.16100.0085.630.000.11
ProvidenceBE0.000.16100.0069.670.000.06
VanderbiltSEC0.000.16100.0047.840.00-0.01
FordhamA101.250.160.0035.11-1.25-0.05
La SalleA101.670.16100.0053.841.670.01
ArmyPat0.000.15100.0066.100.000.05
LibertyBSth0.000.1333.3335.41-0.00-0.04
LongwoodBSth0.000.1333.3322.74-0.00-0.07
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.1333.3345.85-0.00-0.01
WagnerNEC0.000.130.0045.12-0.00-0.01
RichmondA100.000.1366.6767.450.000.04
ConnecticutAmer0.000.13100.0076.190.000.07
Rhode IslandA100.000.13100.0056.240.000.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1350.0037.110.00-0.03
DuquesneA100.000.13100.0052.610.000.01
Ohio St.B100.000.12100.0071.340.000.05
Kent St.MAC0.000.12100.0070.980.000.05
Virginia TechACC0.000.1266.6733.180.00-0.04
Arizona St.P120.000.10100.0056.330.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1050.0049.760.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.1033.3345.63-0.00-0.01
VirginiaACC0.000.10100.0075.720.000.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.100.0024.17-0.00-0.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1033.3344.56-0.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0975.0069.830.000.04
Wake ForestACC0.000.0950.0041.630.00-0.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0966.6776.510.000.05
IllinoisB100.000.09100.0067.100.000.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.09100.0045.990.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.09100.0042.120.00-0.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0966.6767.200.000.03
HamptonMEAC0.000.0925.0051.56-0.000.00
VillanovaBE0.000.09100.0065.270.000.03
AkronMAC0.000.0966.6763.730.000.02
RutgersB100.000.0950.0037.560.00-0.02
WisconsinB100.000.09100.0084.890.000.06
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.070.0034.98-0.00-0.02
HoustonAmer0.000.07100.0065.060.000.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.07100.0071.440.000.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0750.0054.970.000.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0766.6768.980.000.03
High PointBSth0.000.0775.0055.790.000.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0766.6762.810.000.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.07100.0052.260.000.00
LipscombASun0.000.070.0042.80-0.00-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.070.0024.77-0.00-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.070.0056.24-0.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.07100.0069.180.000.03
WinthropBSth0.000.0750.0060.360.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.06100.0058.780.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.06100.0073.660.000.03
Austin PeayOVC0.000.060.0031.23-0.00-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.060.0035.36-0.00-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0033.68-0.00-0.02
DavidsonA100.000.0650.0053.040.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0666.6758.190.000.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0666.6752.030.000.00
IPFWSum0.000.0650.0063.720.000.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.060.0031.61-0.00-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0620.0027.80-0.00-0.03
MercerSC0.000.0650.0052.260.000.00
Saint LouisA100.000.06100.0065.140.000.02
TempleAmer0.000.0650.0053.100.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0650.0042.680.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.06100.0073.570.000.03
CampbellBSth1.670.060.0030.19-1.67-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.0666.6746.540.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0633.3336.55-0.00-0.02
CharlotteCUSA2.500.06100.0070.032.500.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0666.6751.200.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC1.250.060.0040.40-1.25-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0625.0035.65-0.00-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0625.0049.94-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.000.0650.0051.120.000.00
Miami FLACC0.000.06100.0073.530.000.03
Notre DameACC0.000.06100.0074.620.000.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.06100.0061.500.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0046.020.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.000.060.0032.23-0.00-0.02
MarylandB100.000.06100.0064.500.000.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.0666.6734.100.00-0.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0666.6761.350.000.01
OhioMAC0.000.0650.0056.270.000.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0054.710.000.01
IowaB100.000.0650.0065.570.000.02
MichiganB100.000.06100.0064.370.000.02
DukeACC0.000.06100.0086.130.000.04
PittsburghACC0.000.0666.6750.790.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.030.0063.56-0.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.03100.0062.070.000.01
TCUB120.000.03100.0054.550.000.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0366.6740.400.00-0.01
BaylorB121.250.03100.0069.301.250.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.030.0037.13-0.00-0.01
DaytonA100.000.0366.6769.640.000.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0018.27-0.00-0.02
Iowa St.B120.000.03100.0061.830.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.0350.0031.810.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.0375.0060.550.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0366.6755.980.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.03100.0045.350.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0366.6749.590.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC1.250.0375.0059.530.620.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.030.0072.02-0.000.01
North FloridaASun1.250.030.0047.13-1.25-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.03100.0072.420.000.01
OklahomaB120.000.0350.0058.120.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.03100.0052.590.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.03100.0080.090.000.02
PepperdineWCC0.000.03100.0050.830.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0350.0041.720.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.030.0039.36-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0032.69-0.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0366.6765.320.000.01
West VirginiaB121.250.03100.0067.571.250.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0366.6744.970.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.0366.6758.650.000.01
ButlerBE1.250.03100.0061.851.250.01
Texas TechB121.250.0366.6746.900.42-0.00
UMKCWAC0.000.0333.3355.40-0.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.030.0036.36-0.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0049.250.00-0.00
IndianaB100.000.03100.0062.040.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0366.6771.600.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0366.6752.320.000.00
PurdueB100.000.03100.0060.550.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0325.0041.91-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.000.03100.0056.980.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0333.3349.33-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0028.50-0.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0333.3364.19-0.000.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0375.0057.060.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.0333.3346.79-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.03100.0053.080.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0320.0026.89-0.00-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0333.3353.79-0.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0375.0071.100.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0078.630.000.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.03100.0073.290.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.03100.0059.190.000.01
St. John'sBE0.000.03100.0052.540.000.00