Cornell

Conference:	Ivy
Expected RPI:	248.0
Current RPI:	248
Expected SOS:	253
Current SOS:	253
Current Record:	11-16
Expected Record:	11-16
Current Conf Record:	6-9
Expected Conf Record:	6-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	10-4
Current OOC Record:	5-7
Expected OOC Record:	5-7
Expected OOC RPI:	193
Expected OOC SOS:	199

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
11-16	248.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cornell.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Syracuse (45.0)	ACC	A	77-45	L	0%
11-13	Binghamton (320.0)	AE	H	94-84	W	100%
11-16	Colgate (185.0)	Pat	A	72-61	L	0%
11-19	UMass Lowell (289.0)	AE	A	98-78	L	0%
11-24	Toledo (75.0)	MAC	H	80-77	W	100%
11-27	Duquesne (259.0)	A10	A	71-78	W	100%
12-2	Northeastern (55.0)	CAA	A	84-66	L	0%
12-16	Longwood (337.0)	BSth	A	62-69	W	100%
12-20	Lafayette (311.0)	Pat	H	80-71	W	100%
12-23	Niagara (163.0)	MAAC	H	86-89	L	0%
12-28	Delaware (233.0)	CAA	A	97-96	L	0%
12-30	Auburn (15.0)	SEC	A	98-77	L	0%
1-12	Penn (112.0)	Ivy	A	69-61	L	0%
1-13	Princeton (226.0)	Ivy	A	91-54	L	0%
1-20	Columbia (316.0)	Ivy	A	88-62	L	0%
1-27	Columbia (316.0)	Ivy	H	82-81	W	100%
2-2	Dartmouth (334.0)	Ivy	H	86-85	W	100%
2-3	Harvard (117.0)	Ivy	H	73-76	L	0%
2-9	Brown (298.0)	Ivy	A	60-78	W	100%
2-10	Yale (183.0)	Ivy	A	74-65	L	0%
2-16	Princeton (226.0)	Ivy	H	107-101	W	100%
2-17	Penn (112.0)	Ivy	H	71-79	L	0%
2-23	Yale (183.0)	Ivy	H	80-82	L	0%
2-24	Brown (298.0)	Ivy	H	73-68	W	100%
3-2	Harvard (117.0)	Ivy	A	98-88	L	0%
3-3	Dartmouth (334.0)	Ivy	A	75-86	W	100%
3-10	Harvard (117.0)	Ivy	N	74-55	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cornell's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Cornell's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Cornell.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Cornell	Ivy	26.44	26.44	42.61	42.61	-3.91	-3.91
Harvard	Ivy	6.45	6.45	51.85	51.85	0.24	0.24
Penn	Ivy	4.79	4.79	72.41	72.41	2.15	2.15
Yale	Ivy	4.66	4.66	46.43	46.43	-0.33	-0.33
Columbia	Ivy	4.61	4.61	25.00	25.00	-2.30	-2.30
Princeton	Ivy	4.59	4.59	42.31	42.31	-0.71	-0.71
Brown	Ivy	4.58	4.58	41.67	41.67	-0.76	-0.76
Dartmouth	Ivy	4.55	4.55	25.00	25.00	-2.27	-2.27
Colgate	Pat	2.08	2.08	56.67	56.67	0.28	0.28
Lafayette	Pat	2.07	2.07	31.03	31.03	-0.78	-0.78
Northeastern	CAA	2.03	2.03	67.74	67.74	0.72	0.72
Delaware	CAA	2.03	2.03	36.67	36.67	-0.54	-0.54
UMass Lowell	AE	1.99	1.99	35.71	35.71	-0.57	-0.57
Longwood	BSth	1.95	1.95	13.79	13.79	-1.41	-1.41
Binghamton	AE	1.95	1.95	32.14	32.14	-0.69	-0.69
Toledo	MAC	1.94	1.94	68.75	68.75	0.73	0.73
Syracuse	ACC	1.91	1.91	59.38	59.38	0.36	0.36
Auburn	SEC	1.85	1.85	77.42	77.42	1.02	1.02
Duquesne	A10	1.85	1.85	51.61	51.61	0.06	0.06
Niagara	MAAC	1.85	1.85	58.06	58.06	0.30	0.30
Vermont	AE	0.38	0.38	78.79	78.79	0.22	0.22
Albany	AE	0.36	0.36	67.74	67.74	0.13	0.13
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.30	0.30	36.36	36.36	-0.08	-0.08
Navy	Pat	0.28	0.28	61.29	61.29	0.06	0.06
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.28	0.28	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Boston University	Pat	0.27	0.27	46.67	46.67	-0.02	-0.02
Maine	AE	0.27	0.27	13.33	13.33	-0.20	-0.20
Stony Brook	AE	0.27	0.27	38.71	38.71	-0.06	-0.06
Loyola MD	Pat	0.26	0.26	26.67	26.67	-0.12	-0.12
Army	Pat	0.25	0.25	41.38	41.38	-0.04	-0.04
Lehigh	Pat	0.25	0.25	51.72	51.72	0.01	0.01
Monmouth	MAAC	0.25	0.25	35.48	35.48	-0.07	-0.07
Holy Cross	Pat	0.24	0.24	38.71	38.71	-0.06	-0.06
Boston College	ACC	0.23	0.23	55.88	55.88	0.03	0.03
New Hampshire	AE	0.23	0.23	27.59	27.59	-0.10	-0.10
George Washington	A10	0.22	0.22	45.45	45.45	-0.02	-0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.21	0.21	78.12	78.12	0.12	0.12
Bryant	NEC	0.20	0.20	9.68	9.68	-0.16	-0.16
Marist	MAAC	0.19	0.19	19.35	19.35	-0.12	-0.12
UMBC	AE	0.19	0.19	67.74	67.74	0.07	0.07
Massachusetts	A10	0.18	0.18	39.39	39.39	-0.04	-0.04
Bucknell	Pat	0.18	0.18	73.53	73.53	0.08	0.08
Towson	CAA	0.18	0.18	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.17	0.17	30.00	30.00	-0.07	-0.07
NJIT	ASun	0.16	0.16	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Villanova	BE	0.16	0.16	88.24	88.24	0.12	0.12
Connecticut	Amer	0.16	0.16	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
American	Pat	0.15	0.15	20.00	20.00	-0.09	-0.09
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.15	0.15	6.67	6.67	-0.13	-0.13
Fordham	A10	0.15	0.15	29.03	29.03	-0.06	-0.06
Manhattan	MAAC	0.15	0.15	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.15	0.15	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
Iona	MAAC	0.15	0.15	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Elon	CAA	0.15	0.15	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
College of Charleston	CAA	0.15	0.15	77.42	77.42	0.08	0.08
Dayton	A10	0.15	0.15	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.15	0.15	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Hofstra	CAA	0.15	0.15	60.00	60.00	0.03	0.03
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.15	0.15	30.00	30.00	-0.06	-0.06
Buffalo	MAC	0.14	0.14	75.76	75.76	0.07	0.07
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.14	0.14	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Notre Dame	ACC	0.13	0.13	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.13	0.13	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Hartford	AE	0.13	0.13	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Akron	MAC	0.12	0.12	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.12	0.12	70.59	70.59	0.05	0.05
Minnesota	B10	0.12	0.12	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
George Mason	A10	0.12	0.12	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
James Madison	CAA	0.12	0.12	29.03	29.03	-0.05	-0.05
William & Mary	CAA	0.12	0.12	58.62	58.62	0.02	0.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.12	0.12	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.11	0.11	58.62	58.62	0.02	0.02
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.10	0.10	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.10	0.10	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
BYU	WCC	0.10	0.10	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.10	0.10	76.67	76.67	0.05	0.05
Miami FL	ACC	0.09	0.09	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
Wisconsin	B10	0.09	0.09	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
High Point	BSth	0.09	0.09	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Radford	BSth	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.09	0.09	62.07	62.07	0.02	0.02
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.09	0.09	84.85	84.85	0.06	0.06
Wofford	SC	0.09	0.09	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.09	0.09	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Winthrop	BSth	0.09	0.09	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.09	0.09	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.09	0.09	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.09	0.09	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Temple	Amer	0.09	0.09	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.09	0.09	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.09	0.09	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.09	0.09	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Wake Forest	ACC	0.08	0.08	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Providence	BE	0.07	0.07	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Butler	BE	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Cal Poly	BW	0.07	0.07	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.07	0.07	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Hawaii	BW	0.07	0.07	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
USC	P12	0.07	0.07	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Campbell	BSth	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Creighton	BE	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Liberty	BSth	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
TCU	B12	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.06	0.06	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.06	0.06	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
VMI	SC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Howard	MEAC	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
UMKC	WAC	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Arkansas	SEC	0.06	0.06	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Louis	A10	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	32.35	32.35	-0.02	-0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Kansas	B12	0.06	0.06	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Miami OH	MAC	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.06	0.06	71.43	71.43	0.02	0.02
Oakland	Horz	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.06	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.06	0.06	93.94	93.94	0.05	0.05
Western Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Evansville	MVC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Montana St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Illinois	B10	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Davidson	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
LSU	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri	SEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	82.76	82.76	0.02	0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
San Francisco	WCC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Siena	MAAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Stanford	P12	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Stetson	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
UT Arlington	SB	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Utah St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
VCU	A10	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Louisville	ACC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Maryland	B10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01