Cornell

Conference:	Ivy
Expected RPI:	248.0
Current RPI:	248
Expected SOS:	265
Current SOS:	265
Current Record:	12-18
Expected Record:	12-18
Current Conf Record:	5-9
Expected Conf Record:	5-9
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	10-5
Current OOC Record:	7-9
Expected OOC Record:	7-9
Expected OOC RPI:	217
Expected OOC SOS:	241

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
12-18	248.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cornell.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Western Michigan (128.0)	MAC	H	63-55	W	100%
11-14	St. Bonaventure (139.0)	A10	H	68-72	L	0%
11-16	St. Peter's (290.0)	MAAC	H	64-68	L	0%
11-18	Wisconsin (32.0)	B10	A	73-40	L	0%
11-20	Arizona St. (90.0)	P12	A	64-53	L	0%
11-23	Presbyterian (340.0)	BSth	N	55-89	W	100%
11-24	Longwood (332.0)	BSth	N	84-78	W	100%
11-28	Stony Brook (81.0)	AE	H	53-76	L	0%
12-1	Colgate (256.0)	Pat	H	70-63	W	100%
12-17	Vanderbilt (120.0)	SEC	A	66-55	L	0%
12-19	Duke (1.0)	ACC	A	88-47	L	0%
12-22	Boston University (148.0)	AE	A	70-57	L	0%
12-28	St. Francis PA (322.0)	NEC	A	67-79	W	100%
12-30	Binghamton (336.0)	AE	A	77-79	W	100%
1-2	Bucknell (51.0)	Pat	H	56-72	L	0%
1-6	American (278.0)	Pat	A	60-68	W	100%
1-19	Columbia (273.0)	Ivy	H	58-67	L	0%
1-26	Columbia (273.0)	Ivy	A	63-66	W	100%
2-1	Princeton (124.0)	Ivy	A	76-59	L	0%
2-2	Pennsylvania (280.0)	Ivy	A	69-71	W	100%
2-8	Harvard (93.0)	Ivy	H	65-67	L	0%
2-10	Dartmouth (294.0)	Ivy	H	79-56	W	100%
2-15	Yale (198.0)	Ivy	A	61-68	W	100%
2-16	Brown (241.0)	Ivy	A	66-69	W	100%
2-22	Pennsylvania (280.0)	Ivy	H	71-79	L	0%
2-23	Princeton (124.0)	Ivy	H	53-72	L	0%
3-1	Brown (241.0)	Ivy	H	65-84	L	0%
3-2	Yale (198.0)	Ivy	H	70-79	L	0%
3-8	Dartmouth (294.0)	Ivy	A	76-62	L	0%
3-9	Harvard (93.0)	Ivy	A	65-56	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cornell's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Cornell's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Cornell.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Cornell	Ivy	26.28	26.28	41.98	41.98	-4.22	-4.22
Dartmouth	Ivy	4.16	4.16	28.00	28.00	-1.83	-1.83
Columbia	Ivy	4.13	4.13	37.50	37.50	-1.03	-1.03
Pennsylvania	Ivy	4.10	4.10	27.59	27.59	-1.84	-1.84
Brown	Ivy	4.08	4.08	44.00	44.00	-0.49	-0.49
Harvard	Ivy	4.08	4.08	64.00	64.00	1.14	1.14
Princeton	Ivy	4.08	4.08	56.00	56.00	0.49	0.49
Yale	Ivy	4.06	4.06	40.74	40.74	-0.75	-0.75
Bucknell	Pat	1.99	1.99	83.87	83.87	1.35	1.35
Binghamton	AE	1.98	1.98	7.14	7.14	-1.69	-1.69
Colgate	Pat	1.96	1.96	35.48	35.48	-0.57	-0.57
Boston University	AE	1.87	1.87	57.14	57.14	0.27	0.27
American	Pat	1.86	1.86	34.48	34.48	-0.58	-0.58
Stony Brook	AE	1.81	1.81	75.86	75.86	0.94	0.94
Longwood	BSth	1.76	1.76	20.00	20.00	-1.05	-1.05
St. Francis PA	NEC	1.75	1.75	17.86	17.86	-1.12	-1.12
Arizona St.	P12	1.73	1.73	62.50	62.50	0.43	0.43
St. Peter's	MAAC	1.72	1.72	27.59	27.59	-0.77	-0.77
Presbyterian	BSth	1.72	1.72	17.86	17.86	-1.10	-1.10
Wisconsin	B10	1.70	1.70	66.67	66.67	0.57	0.57
Duke	ACC	1.67	1.67	83.87	83.87	1.13	1.13
St. Bonaventure	A10	1.67	1.67	46.43	46.43	-0.12	-0.12
Vanderbilt	SEC	1.67	1.67	46.88	46.88	-0.10	-0.10
Western Michigan	MAC	1.67	1.67	63.33	63.33	0.44	0.44
Army	Pat	0.43	0.43	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Holy Cross	Pat	0.40	0.40	40.00	40.00	-0.08	-0.08
New Hampshire	AE	0.38	0.38	28.57	28.57	-0.16	-0.16
Vermont	AE	0.35	0.35	65.62	65.62	0.11	0.11
Lafayette	Pat	0.33	0.33	54.55	54.55	0.03	0.03
Maine	AE	0.29	0.29	34.48	34.48	-0.09	-0.09
Albany	AE	0.29	0.29	70.59	70.59	0.12	0.12
Lehigh	Pat	0.27	0.27	68.97	68.97	0.10	0.10
Bryant	NEC	0.27	0.27	63.33	63.33	0.07	0.07
Hartford	AE	0.25	0.25	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.25	0.25	23.33	23.33	-0.13	-0.13
Elon	SC	0.24	0.24	63.33	63.33	0.06	0.06
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.23	0.23	31.03	31.03	-0.09	-0.09
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.23	0.23	58.06	58.06	0.04	0.04
Marist	MAAC	0.22	0.22	32.26	32.26	-0.08	-0.08
Navy	Pat	0.21	0.21	23.33	23.33	-0.11	-0.11
Manhattan	MAAC	0.21	0.21	43.75	43.75	-0.03	-0.03
Fordham	A10	0.21	0.21	22.58	22.58	-0.11	-0.11
Niagara	MAAC	0.20	0.20	59.38	59.38	0.04	0.04
Boston College	ACC	0.18	0.18	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.17	0.17	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.17	0.17	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.17	0.17	58.06	58.06	0.03	0.03
Penn St.	B10	0.16	0.16	32.26	32.26	-0.06	-0.06
Arkansas	SEC	0.15	0.15	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Rider	MAAC	0.15	0.15	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.14	0.14	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Wagner	NEC	0.14	0.14	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Kent St.	MAC	0.14	0.14	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Villanova	BE	0.14	0.14	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.14	0.14	42.31	42.31	-0.02	-0.02
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.14	0.14	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Fairfield	MAAC	0.14	0.14	55.88	55.88	0.02	0.02
High Point	BSth	0.14	0.14	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.13	0.13	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Long Island	NEC	0.12	0.12	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
St. Mary's	WCC	0.12	0.12	81.25	81.25	0.07	0.07
Rutgers	BE	0.12	0.12	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.12	0.12	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.11	0.11	22.58	22.58	-0.06	-0.06
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.11	0.11	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
California	P12	0.11	0.11	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Campbell	BSth	0.11	0.11	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
NC Asheville	BSth	0.11	0.11	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.11	0.11	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
La Salle	A10	0.11	0.11	70.00	70.00	0.04	0.04
Temple	A10	0.11	0.11	71.88	71.88	0.05	0.05
Butler	A10	0.11	0.11	75.76	75.76	0.06	0.06
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.11	0.11	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Florida	SEC	0.11	0.11	78.79	78.79	0.06	0.06
Maryland	ACC	0.11	0.11	64.71	64.71	0.03	0.03
Creighton	MVC	0.11	0.11	79.41	79.41	0.06	0.06
Michigan	B10	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Minnesota	B10	0.10	0.10	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Ohio St.	B10	0.10	0.10	78.79	78.79	0.06	0.06
Furman	SC	0.09	0.09	17.24	17.24	-0.06	-0.06
San Francisco	WCC	0.09	0.09	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Northeastern	CAA	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Notre Dame	BE	0.09	0.09	73.53	73.53	0.04	0.04
Rhode Island	A10	0.09	0.09	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
Connecticut	BE	0.09	0.09	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Akron	MAC	0.09	0.09	80.65	80.65	0.05	0.05
Providence	BE	0.09	0.09	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.09	0.09	74.29	74.29	0.04	0.04
Northwestern	B10	0.09	0.09	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Monmouth	NEC	0.09	0.09	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.08	0.08	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.08	0.08	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Winthrop	BSth	0.08	0.08	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Siena	MAAC	0.08	0.08	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Liberty	BSth	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Radford	BSth	0.08	0.08	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Seton Hall	BE	0.08	0.08	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.08	0.08	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.08	0.08	20.69	20.69	-0.05	-0.05
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.08	0.08	48.00	48.00	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
UCLA	P12	0.08	0.08	73.53	73.53	0.04	0.04
Illinois	B10	0.08	0.08	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.06	0.06	88.24	88.24	0.05	0.05
Rice	CUSA	0.06	0.06	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Evansville	MVC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
George Washington	A10	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Nevada	MWC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
The Citadel	SC	0.06	0.06	21.43	21.43	-0.03	-0.03
Western Illinois	Sum	0.06	0.06	71.43	71.43	0.02	0.02
Howard	MEAC	0.06	0.06	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Hampton	MEAC	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.05	7.14	7.14	-0.05	-0.05
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.05	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Davidson	SC	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Missouri	SEC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.02	0.02
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.05	28.12	28.12	-0.02	-0.02
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Oregon	P12	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Southern California	P12	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Utah	P12	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Washington	P12	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Washington St.	P12	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Appalachian St.	SC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	57.69	57.69	0.00	0.00
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Kansas	B12	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Pacific	BW	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
South Florida	BE	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Georgia St.	CAA	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Louisville	BE	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	44.44	44.44	-0.00	-0.00
Texas A&M	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.02	0.02	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Samford	SC	0.02	0.02	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.02	0.02	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.02	0.02	20.00	20.00	-0.01	-0.01