Cornell

Conference:	Ivy
Expected RPI:	181.0
Current RPI:	181
Expected SOS:	121
Current SOS:	121
Current Record:	11-16
Expected Record:	11-16
Current Conf Record:	7-7
Expected Conf Record:	7-7
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	6-0
Current OOC Record:	4-9
Expected OOC Record:	4-9
Expected OOC RPI:	223
Expected OOC SOS:	82

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
11-16	181.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cornell.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	St. Bonaventure (72.0)	A10	A	79-58	L	0%
11-14	Binghamton (344.0)	AE	H	76-61	W	100%
11-16	Buffalo (78.0)	MAC	A	68-59	L	0%
11-20	Boston University (190.0)	AE	H	71-66	W	100%
11-22	Delaware (153.0)	CAA	A	72-64	L	0%
11-27	American (142.0)	Pat	H	63-65	L	0%
12-3	Lehigh (91.0)	Pat	H	81-79	W	100%
12-17	Albany (215.0)	AE	H	85-82	W	100%
12-19	Illinois (92.0)	B10	A	64-60	L	0%
12-21	Penn St. (161.0)	B10	A	74-67	L	0%
12-28	Stony Brook (152.0)	AE	A	68-59	L	0%
12-31	Bucknell (88.0)	Pat	A	63-60	L	0%
1-3	Maryland (105.0)	ACC	A	70-62	L	0%
1-13	Princeton (87.0)	Ivy	H	67-59	W	100%
1-14	Pennsylvania (98.0)	Ivy	H	52-64	L	0%
1-21	Columbia (186.0)	Ivy	A	61-56	L	0%
1-28	Columbia (186.0)	Ivy	H	65-60	W	100%
2-3	Harvard (35.0)	Ivy	A	71-60	L	0%
2-4	Dartmouth (328.0)	Ivy	A	59-68	W	100%
2-10	Yale (102.0)	Ivy	H	85-84	W	100%
2-11	Brown (313.0)	Ivy	H	72-63	W	100%
2-17	Pennsylvania (98.0)	Ivy	A	73-66	L	0%
2-18	Princeton (87.0)	Ivy	A	75-57	L	0%
2-24	Brown (313.0)	Ivy	A	63-69	W	100%
2-25	Yale (102.0)	Ivy	A	71-40	L	0%
3-2	Dartmouth (328.0)	Ivy	H	70-57	W	100%
3-3	Harvard (35.0)	Ivy	H	63-67	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cornell's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Cornell's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Cornell.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Cornell	Ivy	26.29	26.29	40.59	40.59	-4.95	-4.95
Brown	Ivy	4.54	4.54	25.00	25.00	-2.27	-2.27
Princeton	Ivy	4.54	4.54	61.54	61.54	1.05	1.05
Dartmouth	Ivy	4.54	4.54	14.81	14.81	-3.19	-3.19
Columbia	Ivy	4.54	4.54	46.15	46.15	-0.35	-0.35
Pennsylvania	Ivy	4.52	4.52	58.62	58.62	0.78	0.78
Harvard	Ivy	4.51	4.51	85.19	85.19	3.17	3.17
Yale	Ivy	4.47	4.47	66.67	66.67	1.49	1.49
Albany	AE	2.22	2.22	59.38	59.38	0.42	0.42
Bucknell	Pat	2.19	2.19	70.97	70.97	0.92	0.92
Boston University	AE	2.15	2.15	51.61	51.61	0.07	0.07
Stony Brook	AE	2.15	2.15	68.97	68.97	0.82	0.82
American	Pat	2.12	2.12	63.33	63.33	0.57	0.57
Binghamton	AE	2.09	2.09	6.67	6.67	-1.81	-1.81
Lehigh	Pat	2.03	2.03	80.65	80.65	1.24	1.24
Buffalo	MAC	1.95	1.95	62.96	62.96	0.51	0.51
Delaware	CAA	1.94	1.94	56.67	56.67	0.26	0.26
Illinois	B10	1.94	1.94	51.61	51.61	0.06	0.06
St. Bonaventure	A10	1.91	1.91	63.33	63.33	0.51	0.51
Maryland	ACC	1.91	1.91	51.61	51.61	0.06	0.06
Penn St.	B10	1.88	1.88	35.48	35.48	-0.55	-0.55
Vermont	AE	0.47	0.47	67.65	67.65	0.16	0.16
Lafayette	Pat	0.46	0.46	41.94	41.94	-0.07	-0.07
Holy Cross	Pat	0.44	0.44	51.72	51.72	0.02	0.02
Hartford	AE	0.43	0.43	29.03	29.03	-0.18	-0.18
Colgate	Pat	0.39	0.39	26.67	26.67	-0.18	-0.18
New Hampshire	AE	0.39	0.39	42.86	42.86	-0.06	-0.06
Army	Pat	0.37	0.37	37.93	37.93	-0.09	-0.09
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.35	0.35	13.33	13.33	-0.26	-0.26
Maine	AE	0.30	0.30	39.29	39.29	-0.06	-0.06
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.27	0.27	60.61	60.61	0.06	0.06
Navy	Pat	0.23	0.23	7.14	7.14	-0.20	-0.20
Bryant	NEC	0.23	0.23	6.67	6.67	-0.20	-0.20
Rhode Island	A10	0.22	0.22	22.58	22.58	-0.12	-0.12
Manhattan	MAAC	0.22	0.22	62.50	62.50	0.05	0.05
Elon	SC	0.20	0.20	44.83	44.83	-0.02	-0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.19	0.19	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Rider	MAAC	0.18	0.18	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
Fordham	A10	0.18	0.18	34.48	34.48	-0.06	-0.06
Boston College	ACC	0.18	0.18	29.03	29.03	-0.08	-0.08
Temple	A10	0.18	0.18	77.42	77.42	0.10	0.10
George Mason	CAA	0.18	0.18	72.73	72.73	0.08	0.08
Iowa	B10	0.18	0.18	51.52	51.52	0.01	0.01
La Salle	A10	0.18	0.18	63.64	63.64	0.05	0.05
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.16	0.16	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Rutgers	BE	0.16	0.16	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.16	0.16	58.06	58.06	0.03	0.03
Florida St.	ACC	0.16	0.16	72.73	72.73	0.07	0.07
Drexel	CAA	0.16	0.16	81.82	81.82	0.10	0.10
Marist	MAAC	0.15	0.15	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Wagner	NEC	0.15	0.15	80.65	80.65	0.09	0.09
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.15	0.15	10.34	10.34	-0.12	-0.12
Monmouth	NEC	0.15	0.15	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
Villanova	BE	0.15	0.15	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
Indiana	B10	0.15	0.15	75.76	75.76	0.08	0.08
Northwestern	B10	0.15	0.15	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.13	0.13	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.13	0.13	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.13	0.13	58.62	58.62	0.02	0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.13	0.13	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Longwood	ind	0.13	0.13	22.22	22.22	-0.07	-0.07
Morehead St.	OVC	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.12	0.12	64.71	64.71	0.04	0.04
Siena	MAAC	0.12	0.12	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.12	0.12	31.25	31.25	-0.04	-0.04
Duke	ACC	0.12	0.12	81.82	81.82	0.07	0.07
Radford	BSth	0.12	0.12	13.33	13.33	-0.09	-0.09
Richmond	A10	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.12	0.12	20.69	20.69	-0.07	-0.07
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.12	0.12	27.59	27.59	-0.05	-0.05
Michigan	B10	0.12	0.12	71.88	71.88	0.05	0.05
Minnesota	B10	0.12	0.12	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.12	0.12	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Purdue	B10	0.12	0.12	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Wisconsin	B10	0.12	0.12	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Ohio	MAC	0.10	0.10	78.79	78.79	0.06	0.06
Central Michigan	MAC	0.10	0.10	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Long Island	NEC	0.10	0.10	75.76	75.76	0.05	0.05
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.09	0.09	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
George Washington	A10	0.09	0.09	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Canisius	MAAC	0.09	0.09	16.67	16.67	-0.06	-0.06
Notre Dame	BE	0.09	0.09	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.09	0.09	16.13	16.13	-0.06	-0.06
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
James Madison	CAA	0.09	0.09	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Towson	CAA	0.09	0.09	3.12	3.12	-0.08	-0.08
Duquesne	A10	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.09	0.09	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Pittsburgh	BE	0.09	0.09	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.09	0.09	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Michigan St.	B10	0.09	0.09	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
North Carolina	ACC	0.09	0.09	85.29	85.29	0.06	0.06
Ohio St.	B10	0.09	0.09	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
Florida	SEC	0.07	0.07	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Seton Hall	BE	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Akron	MAC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.07	0.07	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Furman	SC	0.07	0.07	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.07	0.07	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.07	0.07	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
North Texas	SB	0.07	0.07	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Central Florida	CUSA	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.06	0.06	29.63	29.63	-0.03	-0.03
San Francisco	WCC	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Seattle	ind	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Utah	P12	0.06	0.06	16.67	16.67	-0.04	-0.04
Dayton	A10	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Niagara	MAAC	0.06	0.06	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Providence	BE	0.06	0.06	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Davidson	SC	0.06	0.06	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Georgia St.	CAA	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Hampton	MEAC	0.06	0.06	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
Howard	MEAC	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Old Dominion	CAA	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.06	0.06	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
UCLA	P12	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Xavier	A10	0.06	0.06	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.06	0.06	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Missouri	B12	0.06	0.06	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
William & Mary	CAA	0.06	0.06	16.13	16.13	-0.04	-0.04
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Syracuse	BE	0.06	0.06	93.94	93.94	0.05	0.05
Ball St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Brigham Young	WCC	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.02	0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Georgetown	BE	0.03	0.03	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.03	0.03	82.35	82.35	0.02	0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Florida International	SB	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	94.12	94.12	0.03	0.03
Liberty	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Samford	SC	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	32.00	32.00	-0.01	-0.01
South Florida	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01