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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Cornell

Conference:Ivy
Expected RPI:334.0
Current RPI:334
Expected SOS:146
Current SOS:146
Current Record:1-26
Expected Record:1-26
Current Conf Record:1-13
Expected Conf Record:1-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:1-11
Current OOC Record:0-13
Expected OOC Record:0-13
Expected OOC RPI:335
Expected OOC SOS:157



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
1-26334.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cornell.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Syracuse (16.0)ACCA82-60L0%0.0
11-10Loyola MD (274.0)PatH89-93L0%0.0
11-13Binghamton (325.0)AEH79-89L0%0.0
11-15Louisville (19.0)AmerA99-54L0%0.0
11-20Colgate (256.0)PatA81-58L0%0.0
11-22Siena (193.0)MAACH70-71L0%0.0
11-25Radford (240.0)BSthH71-86L0%0.0
11-29Western Michigan (66.0)MACA83-70L0%0.0
12-1Notre Dame (136.0)ACCA101-67L0%0.0
12-7St. Francis PA (298.0)NECH62-72L0%0.0
12-22Stony Brook (165.0)AEA76-54L0%0.0
12-28Saint Peter's (231.0)MAACA67-59L0%0.0
1-4St. Bonaventure (89.0)A10A81-57L0%0.0
1-18Columbia (130.0)IvyA71-61L0%0.0
1-25Columbia (130.0)IvyH58-74L0%0.0
1-31Brown (229.0)IvyA78-66L0%0.0
2-1Yale (147.0)IvyA61-57L0%0.0
2-7Penn (284.0)IvyA90-83L0%0.0
2-8Princeton (122.0)IvyA69-48L0%0.0
2-14Dartmouth (266.0)IvyH70-67W100%0.0
2-15Harvard (46.0)IvyH44-67L0%0.0
2-21Yale (147.0)IvyH65-82L0%0.0
2-22Brown (229.0)IvyH75-81L0%0.0
2-28Harvard (46.0)IvyA72-47L0%0.0
3-1Dartmouth (266.0)IvyA87-78L0%0.0
3-7Princeton (122.0)IvyH51-91L0%0.0
3-8Penn (284.0)IvyH65-69L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cornell's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Cornell's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Cornell.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
CornellIvy26.3226.322.402.40-25.06-25.06
ColumbiaIvy4.584.5857.1457.140.650.65
BrownIvy4.534.5348.0048.00-0.18-0.18
HarvardIvy4.514.5185.1985.193.183.18
PennIvy4.514.5123.0823.08-2.43-2.43
PrincetonIvy4.504.5068.0068.001.621.62
YaleIvy4.504.5048.0048.00-0.18-0.18
DartmouthIvy4.504.5037.5037.50-1.12-1.12
BinghamtonAE2.132.1320.6920.69-1.25-1.25
ColgatePat2.072.0737.9337.93-0.50-0.50
Stony BrookAE2.012.0167.7467.740.710.71
Loyola MDPat1.971.9732.1432.14-0.70-0.70
SyracuseACC1.941.9483.8783.871.321.32
Saint Peter'sMAAC1.941.9443.3343.33-0.26-0.26
SienaMAAC1.941.9445.1645.16-0.19-0.19
RadfordBSth1.881.8858.6258.620.320.32
St. Francis PANEC1.881.8830.0030.00-0.75-0.75
Notre DameACC1.881.8845.1645.16-0.18-0.18
St. BonaventureA101.881.8851.6151.610.060.06
LouisvilleAmer1.851.8584.8584.851.291.29
Western MichiganMAC1.851.8570.0070.000.740.74
BryantNEC0.390.3954.8454.840.040.04
HartfordAE0.380.3851.5251.520.010.01
LafayettePat0.360.3633.3333.33-0.12-0.12
VermontAE0.350.3566.6766.670.120.12
UMass LowellAE0.350.3533.3333.33-0.12-0.12
AlbanyAE0.350.3556.2556.250.040.04
New HampshireAE0.330.3317.2417.24-0.21-0.21
AmericanPat0.320.3262.5062.500.080.08
BucknellPat0.290.2953.3353.330.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.280.2821.2121.21-0.16-0.16
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.250.2531.0331.03-0.09-0.09
ConnecticutAmer0.250.2576.4776.470.130.13
MaineAE0.220.2217.8617.86-0.14-0.14
Boston UniversityPat0.220.2270.5970.590.090.09
RutgersAmer0.220.2234.3834.38-0.07-0.07
NavyPat0.220.2227.5927.59-0.10-0.10
ArmyPat0.220.2246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.220.2272.7372.730.100.10
MonmouthMAAC0.210.2134.3834.38-0.07-0.07
MaristMAAC0.210.2138.7138.71-0.05-0.05
FordhamA100.210.2132.2632.26-0.08-0.08
La SalleA100.210.2148.3948.39-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.210.2178.1278.120.120.12
FairfieldMAAC0.210.2121.8821.88-0.12-0.12
CanisiusMAAC0.200.2065.6265.620.060.06
LongwoodBSth0.200.2014.2914.29-0.14-0.14
Sacred HeartNEC0.200.2016.1316.13-0.13-0.13
Central ConnecticutNEC0.200.2034.4834.48-0.06-0.06
George MasonA100.190.1935.4835.48-0.06-0.06
Holy CrossPat0.190.1959.3859.380.040.04
RiderMAAC0.180.1845.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.180.1822.5822.58-0.10-0.10
St. Francis NYNEC0.180.1854.8454.840.020.02
St. John'sBE0.160.1662.5062.500.040.04
LehighPat0.160.1643.7543.75-0.02-0.02
WagnerNEC0.150.1560.0060.000.030.03
UMBCAE0.150.1527.5927.59-0.07-0.07
Wake ForestACC0.150.1551.5251.520.000.00
IonaMAAC0.150.1568.7568.750.050.05
ProvidenceBE0.140.1467.6567.650.050.05
Penn St.B100.130.1346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.130.1317.8617.86-0.09-0.09
Northern IllinoisMAC0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.130.1327.5927.59-0.06-0.06
PortlandWCC0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.130.1380.6580.650.080.08
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
TempleAmer0.120.1229.0329.03-0.05-0.05
Miami FLACC0.120.1251.5251.520.000.00
ToledoMAC0.120.1281.2581.250.070.07
QuinnipiacMAAC0.120.1264.5264.520.030.03
North CarolinaACC0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
NorthwesternB100.100.1042.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
NJITind0.100.1036.0036.00-0.03-0.03
IowaB100.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
VillanovaBE0.100.1087.5087.500.070.07
DenverSum0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
NortheasternCAA0.090.0934.3834.38-0.03-0.03
High PointBSth0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.090.0964.2964.290.030.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.090.0931.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.090.0961.7661.760.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.090.0941.3841.38-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
Georgia TechACC0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0961.7661.760.020.02
PittsburghACC0.090.0973.5373.530.040.04
VirginiaACC0.090.0982.3582.350.060.06
MemphisAmer0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
HoustonAmer0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
IllinoisB100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
IPFWSum0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
ButlerBE0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
MercerASun0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
PacificWCC0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
Green BayHorz0.060.0677.7877.780.040.04
HowardMEAC0.060.0619.3519.35-0.04-0.04
TCUB120.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
CampbellBSth0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
ElonSC0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
IdahoWAC0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
Michigan St.B100.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
North TexasCUSA0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0613.3313.33-0.05-0.05
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
VMIBSth0.060.0655.5655.560.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
George WashingtonA100.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.060.0610.7110.71-0.05-0.05
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
OhioMAC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
DaytonA100.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0678.5778.570.030.03
ClemsonACC0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
DelawareCAA0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
Florida St.ACC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
MarylandACC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
MassachusettsA100.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
PurdueB100.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
VCUA100.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
HofstraCAA0.060.0630.3030.30-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
SMUAmer0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
TulaneCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UNLVMWC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
WinthropBSth0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
HawaiiBW0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
OaklandHorz0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
MinnesotaB100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
UMKCWAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckySB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01