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Through games of Feb 10, 2016.


Cornell

Conference:Ivy
Expected RPI:208.6
Current RPI:176
Expected SOS:163
Current SOS:164
Current Record:8-11
Expected Record:11-16
Current Conf Record:2-4
Expected Conf Record:5-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-5
Current OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC RPI:168
Expected OOC SOS:179



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-12141.20.15%
14-13157.51.29%
13-14173.57.02%
12-15190.120.55%
11-16206.632.68%
10-17222.526.07%
9-18239.010.40%
8-19254.91.83%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cornell.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Georgia Tech (87.7)ACCA116-81L0%0.0
11-16Colgate (228.7)PatA98-101W100%0.0
11-18Binghamton (308.8)AEH76-59W100%0.0
11-21Canisius (214.3)MAACA87-62L0%0.0
11-25Pittsburgh (46.9)ACCA93-49L0%0.0
11-29UMass Lowell (262.4)AEA80-77L0%0.0
12-1Siena (100.5)MAACH81-80W100%0.0
12-5Lafayette (323.9)PatH85-67W100%0.0
12-19Syracuse (52.6)ACCA67-46L0%0.0
12-23Monmouth (40.4)MAACH69-78L0%0.0
12-28Saint Peter's (224.7)MAACA62-65W100%0.0
1-2Albany (88.4)AEH70-75L0%0.0
1-6Howard (297.1)MEACA81-84W100%0.0
1-16Columbia (126.2)IvyA74-70L0%0.0
1-23Columbia (126.2)IvyH68-79L0%0.0
1-29Harvard (213.2)IvyA65-77W100%0.0
1-30Dartmouth (292.2)IvyA73-77W100%0.0
2-5Brown (292.0)IvyA86-80L0%0.0
2-6Yale (55.5)IvyA83-52L0%0.0
2-12Princeton (53.0)IvyH0-015%-11.2
2-13Penn (276.7)IvyH0-057%1.8
2-19Dartmouth (292.2)IvyH0-059%2.6
2-20Harvard (213.2)IvyH0-040%-2.7
2-26Penn (276.7)IvyA0-033%-4.8
2-27Princeton (53.0)IvyA0-05%-17.9
3-4Yale (55.5)IvyH0-013%-12.3
3-5Brown (292.0)IvyH0-063%3.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cornell's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Cornell's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Cornell.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
CornellIvy26.2526.3549.4442.02-0.29-4.20
PrincetonIvy0.394.5872.2273.460.172.15
PennIvy0.384.5838.8936.28-0.09-1.26
ColumbiaIvy5.604.5563.1662.641.471.15
HarvardIvy2.964.5536.8439.18-0.78-0.98
BrownIvy2.964.5527.7828.04-1.31-2.00
YaleIvy2.954.5472.2273.171.312.11
DartmouthIvy2.944.5433.3332.65-0.98-1.58
Saint Peter'sMAAC2.972.2042.8644.85-0.42-0.23
AlbanyAE2.982.1175.0075.501.491.08
CanisiusMAAC2.922.1141.6743.53-0.49-0.27
LafayettePat2.752.0921.7422.46-1.55-1.15
BinghamtonAE2.852.0821.7424.95-1.61-1.04
SienaMAAC2.962.0766.6766.240.990.67
ColgatePat2.902.0445.4546.55-0.26-0.14
MonmouthMAAC2.902.0479.1780.531.691.24
HowardMEAC2.821.9838.1040.37-0.67-0.38
Georgia TechACC2.801.9852.1750.380.120.02
SyracuseACC2.801.9865.2261.310.850.45
UMass LowellAE2.741.9831.8233.26-1.00-0.66
PittsburghACC2.741.9771.4366.481.170.65
FairfieldMAAC0.530.4554.1754.110.040.04
VermontAE0.530.4252.0054.870.020.04
MaristMAAC0.570.4121.7424.20-0.32-0.21
HartfordAE0.420.3625.0026.74-0.21-0.17
New HampshireAE0.420.3657.1453.980.060.03
NiagaraMAAC0.390.3424.0024.57-0.20-0.18
MaineAE0.300.3333.3333.13-0.10-0.11
Stony BrookAE0.400.3281.8282.620.260.21
LehighPat0.410.3239.1342.82-0.09-0.05
Boston UniversityPat0.450.3256.0056.490.050.04
RiderMAAC0.280.3140.0042.12-0.06-0.05
BryantNEC0.330.3025.0026.40-0.16-0.14
Holy CrossPat0.410.3041.6739.62-0.07-0.06
BucknellPat0.290.2952.1754.960.010.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.380.2836.3636.20-0.10-0.08
ManhattanMAAC0.390.2842.8642.01-0.06-0.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.250.2713.0413.56-0.19-0.20
UMBCAE0.330.2624.0026.33-0.17-0.12
IonaMAAC0.220.2560.8760.750.050.05
NJITASun0.360.2354.1755.260.030.02
Boston CollegeACC0.240.2229.1726.73-0.10-0.10
Saint Joseph'sA100.130.2083.3381.320.080.13
NavyPat0.170.2064.0064.480.050.06
ArmyPat0.330.1954.1754.290.030.02
DukeACC0.230.1975.0071.800.120.08
Notre DameACC0.280.1870.8367.820.120.07
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.240.1629.1733.74-0.10-0.05
USCP120.230.1678.2673.050.130.07
Miami FLACC0.170.1682.6177.520.110.09
Loyola MDPat0.220.1633.3335.16-0.07-0.05
WoffordSC0.250.1643.4846.22-0.03-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.110.1579.1776.070.070.08
SMUAmer0.140.1486.9682.900.100.09
HamptonMEAC0.060.1359.0961.310.010.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.1343.4850.66-0.010.00
ProvidenceBE0.140.1372.0069.150.060.05
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.110.1350.0051.910.000.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.180.1334.7837.06-0.06-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.190.1322.7324.97-0.11-0.07
Robert MorrisNEC0.130.1328.0030.70-0.06-0.05
AmericanPat0.170.1329.1731.18-0.07-0.05
GeorgetownBE0.180.1356.0052.840.020.01
Virginia TechACC0.170.1252.0048.860.01-0.00
ClemsonACC0.110.1258.3358.370.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.210.1272.7370.400.100.05
Florida St.ACC0.060.1269.5764.900.020.04
North CarolinaACC0.110.1283.3378.400.070.07
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.130.1031.8236.14-0.05-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.109.0912.25-0.05-0.08
George MasonA100.060.1033.3333.70-0.02-0.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.130.1047.8348.87-0.01-0.00
Seton HallBE0.130.1070.8368.100.050.04
La SalleA100.050.1019.0520.33-0.03-0.06
MassachusettsA100.130.1040.9139.26-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.050.1013.6418.18-0.04-0.06
VillanovaBE0.050.1087.5086.870.040.07
NorthwesternB100.180.1064.0062.090.050.02
RutgersB100.170.1021.7420.34-0.10-0.06
St. Francis NYNEC0.170.1037.5043.37-0.04-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.110.0950.0049.050.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.170.0983.3378.470.110.05
Wake ForestACC0.110.0941.6739.91-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0766.6767.710.020.02
IllinoisB100.070.0745.8344.11-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0734.7836.51-0.00-0.02
LipscombASun0.000.0725.0029.28-0.00-0.03
MarylandB100.000.0787.5083.690.000.05
Rhode IslandA100.070.0758.3357.220.010.01
StanfordP120.070.0750.0046.530.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.000.0763.6459.710.000.01
WashingtonP120.000.0762.5060.110.000.01
AuburnSEC0.070.0739.1335.44-0.01-0.02
BYUWCC0.070.0766.6769.490.020.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0714.2920.65-0.04-0.04
KansasB120.070.0782.6179.190.040.04
NortheasternCAA0.070.0745.8346.63-0.01-0.00
OklahomaB120.070.0786.9682.580.050.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.120.0625.0030.04-0.06-0.03
George WashingtonA100.110.0675.0071.920.060.03
PurdueB100.120.0680.0077.960.070.04
DelawareCAA0.130.0621.7423.32-0.07-0.03
Kansas St.B120.130.0658.3356.290.020.01
ConnecticutAmer0.110.0673.9172.580.050.03
RadfordBSth0.110.0650.0051.280.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.110.0645.4554.16-0.010.01
WagnerNEC0.110.0663.6465.020.030.02
St. Francis PANEC0.110.0650.0049.490.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.110.0656.5257.000.010.01
DuquesneA100.110.0660.8756.360.020.01
Kent St.MAC0.110.0665.2260.580.030.01
HofstraCAA0.110.0665.2264.230.030.02
WisconsinB100.110.0662.5056.960.030.01
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0347.6249.35-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.060.0352.3850.750.000.00
HawaiiBW0.060.0384.2181.660.040.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0319.0525.90-0.04-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0329.1733.11-0.02-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0325.0033.20-0.03-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0338.1037.70-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0352.1754.140.000.00
TCUB120.060.0345.8339.35-0.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.060.0371.4369.840.030.01
DavidsonA100.060.0361.9058.060.010.01
DetroitHorz0.060.0347.6245.85-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0352.3854.070.000.00
FIUCUSA0.050.0340.9145.29-0.01-0.00
Michigan St.B100.050.0380.0081.580.030.02
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0350.0052.380.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0340.0045.48-0.01-0.00
OaklandHorz0.050.0368.0067.990.020.01
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0328.5731.30-0.03-0.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0375.0072.630.030.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0320.0019.76-0.03-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.050.0350.0053.000.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0334.7840.89-0.02-0.01
DaytonA100.050.0386.9682.150.040.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0359.0959.370.010.01
ElonCAA0.050.0352.1750.420.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0359.0955.220.010.00
Green BayHorz0.050.0354.5556.010.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0342.8646.35-0.01-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.050.0340.9143.75-0.01-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0318.1821.12-0.03-0.02
Penn St.B100.050.0350.0046.760.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0314.2924.86-0.04-0.02
St. John'sBE0.050.0325.0023.45-0.03-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.050.0350.0048.130.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0375.0075.330.030.02
TulaneAmer0.050.0336.0034.92-0.02-0.01
UCLAP120.050.0356.5253.270.010.00
VCUA100.050.0373.9174.060.030.01