Drexel

Conference:	CAA
Expected RPI:	64.0
Current RPI:	64
Expected SOS:	212
Current SOS:	212
Current Record:	27-6
Expected Record:	27-6
Current Conf Record:	18-3
Expected Conf Record:	18-3
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	8-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	15-0
Current OOC Record:	9-3
Expected OOC Record:	9-3
Expected OOC RPI:	81
Expected OOC SOS:	222

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
27-6	64.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Drexel.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-15	Rider (199.0)	MAAC	A	62-80	W	100%
11-18	Norfolk St. (128.0)	MEAC	N	56-61	L	0%
11-19	Virginia (53.0)	ACC	N	49-35	L	0%
11-21	Winthrop (272.0)	BSth	N	45-68	W	100%
11-30	Saint Joseph's (69.0)	A10	A	62-49	L	0%
12-3	Delaware (153.0)	CAA	A	71-60	L	0%
12-10	Princeton (87.0)	Ivy	H	64-60	W	100%
12-13	Niagara (201.0)	MAAC	A	58-71	W	100%
12-17	Bradley (265.0)	MVC	H	73-68	W	100%
12-22	Binghamton (344.0)	AE	A	44-68	W	100%
12-28	Fairfield (115.0)	MAAC	H	77-69	W	100%
12-31	St. Francis PA (312.0)	NEC	H	63-42	W	100%
1-2	Georgia St. (141.0)	CAA	A	58-44	L	0%
1-4	Towson (311.0)	CAA	H	60-27	W	100%
1-8	Virginia Commonwealth (38.0)	CAA	H	64-58	W	100%
1-12	George Mason (82.0)	CAA	H	60-53	W	100%
1-14	NC Wilmington (214.0)	CAA	A	57-79	W	100%
1-18	Hofstra (263.0)	CAA	A	50-56	W	100%
1-21	Northeastern (172.0)	CAA	H	71-53	W	100%
1-23	William & Mary (299.0)	CAA	A	48-64	W	100%
1-25	Georgia St. (141.0)	CAA	H	68-46	W	100%
1-28	Delaware (153.0)	CAA	H	71-55	W	100%
2-1	Northeastern (172.0)	CAA	A	53-61	W	100%
2-4	Towson (311.0)	CAA	A	57-65	W	100%
2-8	James Madison (261.0)	CAA	A	56-63	W	100%
2-11	Hofstra (263.0)	CAA	H	78-67	W	100%
2-14	William & Mary (299.0)	CAA	H	63-61	W	100%
2-18	Cleveland St. (85.0)	Horz	A	49-69	W	100%
2-22	James Madison (261.0)	CAA	H	78-61	W	100%
2-25	Old Dominion (103.0)	CAA	A	72-73	W	100%
3-3	NC Wilmington (214.0)	CAA	N	59-47	W	100%
3-4	Old Dominion (103.0)	CAA	N	68-51	W	100%
3-5	Virginia Commonwealth (38.0)	CAA	N	59-56	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Drexel's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Drexel's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Drexel.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Drexel	CAA	26.27	26.27	84.52	84.52	18.13	18.13
Northeastern	CAA	3.91	3.91	48.28	48.28	-0.13	-0.13
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	3.89	3.89	84.38	84.38	2.67	2.67
Old Dominion	CAA	3.86	3.86	64.52	64.52	1.12	1.12
Georgia St.	CAA	3.84	3.84	66.67	66.67	1.28	1.28
Hofstra	CAA	3.84	3.84	33.33	33.33	-1.28	-1.28
Delaware	CAA	3.84	3.84	58.62	58.62	0.66	0.66
NC Wilmington	CAA	3.83	3.83	34.48	34.48	-1.19	-1.19
James Madison	CAA	3.81	3.81	40.00	40.00	-0.76	-0.76
Towson	CAA	3.81	3.81	3.33	3.33	-3.56	-3.56
William & Mary	CAA	3.81	3.81	17.24	17.24	-2.50	-2.50
George Mason	CAA	2.44	2.44	75.00	75.00	1.22	1.22
Rider	MAAC	1.70	1.70	41.94	41.94	-0.27	-0.27
Fairfield	MAAC	1.68	1.68	59.38	59.38	0.31	0.31
Niagara	MAAC	1.63	1.63	43.75	43.75	-0.20	-0.20
Virginia	ACC	1.61	1.61	70.00	70.00	0.64	0.64
Princeton	Ivy	1.59	1.59	62.96	62.96	0.41	0.41
St. Francis PA	NEC	1.58	1.58	21.43	21.43	-0.90	-0.90
Bradley	MVC	1.56	1.56	22.58	22.58	-0.86	-0.86
Binghamton	AE	1.56	1.56	6.67	6.67	-1.35	-1.35
Cleveland St.	Horz	1.56	1.56	70.00	70.00	0.62	0.62
Winthrop	BSth	1.54	1.54	34.48	34.48	-0.48	-0.48
Norfolk St.	MEAC	1.52	1.52	74.19	74.19	0.73	0.73
Saint Joseph's	A10	1.52	1.52	59.38	59.38	0.28	0.28
Manhattan	MAAC	0.33	0.33	62.50	62.50	0.08	0.08
Iona	MAAC	0.28	0.28	78.12	78.12	0.16	0.16
Liberty	BSth	0.24	0.24	37.93	37.93	-0.06	-0.06
Boston University	AE	0.24	0.24	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
La Salle	A10	0.24	0.24	63.64	63.64	0.07	0.07
Canisius	MAAC	0.23	0.23	16.67	16.67	-0.16	-0.16
Howard	MEAC	0.21	0.21	30.00	30.00	-0.09	-0.09
Vermont	AE	0.21	0.21	67.65	67.65	0.08	0.08
Siena	MAAC	0.21	0.21	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.21	0.21	22.58	22.58	-0.12	-0.12
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.20	0.20	61.29	61.29	0.04	0.04
Hampton	MEAC	0.19	0.19	36.36	36.36	-0.05	-0.05
Richmond	A10	0.19	0.19	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.19	0.19	75.00	75.00	0.09	0.09
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.17	0.17	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.17	0.17	13.33	13.33	-0.12	-0.12
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.16	0.16	16.13	16.13	-0.11	-0.11
Robert Morris	NEC	0.15	0.15	70.59	70.59	0.06	0.06
Radford	BSth	0.15	0.15	13.33	13.33	-0.11	-0.11
Stony Brook	AE	0.15	0.15	70.00	70.00	0.06	0.06
Long Island	NEC	0.14	0.14	75.76	75.76	0.07	0.07
Missouri	B12	0.14	0.14	88.24	88.24	0.11	0.11
Massachusetts	A10	0.14	0.14	66.67	66.67	0.05	0.05
Marist	MAAC	0.14	0.14	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
George Washington	A10	0.14	0.14	32.26	32.26	-0.05	-0.05
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.14	0.14	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Cornell	Ivy	0.13	0.13	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.12	0.12	64.71	64.71	0.04	0.04
Campbell	BSth	0.12	0.12	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Drake	MVC	0.12	0.12	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Detroit	Horz	0.12	0.12	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Illinois St.	MVC	0.12	0.12	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.12	0.12	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
New Hampshire	AE	0.12	0.12	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.12	0.12	38.46	38.46	-0.03	-0.03
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.12	0.12	34.48	34.48	-0.04	-0.04
South Florida	BE	0.11	0.11	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Western Kentucky	SB	0.11	0.11	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Lafayette	Pat	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Bucknell	Pat	0.10	0.10	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
Wagner	NEC	0.10	0.10	80.65	80.65	0.06	0.06
Monmouth	NEC	0.10	0.10	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.10	0.10	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Colgate	Pat	0.10	0.10	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.10	0.10	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.10	0.10	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
St. John's	BE	0.10	0.10	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.10	0.10	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Albany	AE	0.10	0.10	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.10	0.10	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	10.34	10.34	-0.08	-0.08
Dayton	A10	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Temple	A10	0.09	0.09	77.42	77.42	0.05	0.05
Oregon St.	P12	0.09	0.09	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.09	0.09	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.09	0.09	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
NC Greensboro	SC	0.09	0.09	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Brown	Ivy	0.08	0.08	23.33	23.33	-0.04	-0.04
Harvard	Ivy	0.08	0.08	86.21	86.21	0.06	0.06
Florida St.	ACC	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.08	0.08	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Lehigh	Pat	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.07	0.07	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.07	0.07	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Clemson	ACC	0.07	0.07	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.07	0.07	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Marquette	BE	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.07	0.07	20.69	20.69	-0.04	-0.04
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.07	0.07	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Hartford	AE	0.07	0.07	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Villanova	BE	0.07	0.07	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.07	0.07	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.07	0.07	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.07	0.07	20.69	20.69	-0.04	-0.04
Creighton	MVC	0.07	0.07	84.85	84.85	0.05	0.05
Florida International	SB	0.07	0.07	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Indiana St.	MVC	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Akron	MAC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Columbia	Ivy	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.05	0.05	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Yale	Ivy	0.05	0.05	65.38	65.38	0.02	0.02
Bryant	NEC	0.05	0.05	6.67	6.67	-0.05	-0.05
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.05	0.05	10.34	10.34	-0.04	-0.04
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
High Point	BSth	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.05	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Presbyterian	BSth	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.05	64.29	64.29	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
American	Pat	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Butler	Horz	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Davidson	SC	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Furman	SC	0.05	0.05	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Maine	AE	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.03	0.03
Valparaiso	Horz	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Longwood	ind	0.05	0.05	22.22	22.22	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Christian	MWC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Belmont	ASun	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Georgia Southern	SC	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Portland	WCC	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Samford	SC	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
The Citadel	SC	0.05	0.05	14.29	14.29	-0.03	-0.03
Utah Valley	GWC	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Washington	P12	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Wichita St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	83.87	83.87	0.03	0.03
Central Florida	CUSA	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
East Carolina	CUSA	0.05	0.05	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	94.12	94.12	0.04	0.04
Alabama	SEC	0.04	0.04	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.04	0.04	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Elon	SC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.03	0.03	57.69	57.69	0.00	0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Army	Pat	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.02	0.02	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.02	0.02	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Oregon	P12	0.02	0.02	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Seattle	ind	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.02	0.02	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Florida	SEC	0.02	0.02	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.02	0.02	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Navy	Pat	0.02	0.02	7.14	7.14	-0.02	-0.02
Nevada	WAC	0.02	0.02	80.00	80.00	0.01	0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.02	0.02	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota	GWC	0.02	0.02	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Western Carolina	SC	0.02	0.02	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.02	0.02	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Wofford	SC	0.02	0.02	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Wyoming	MWC	0.02	0.02	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.02	0.02	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.00	0.00
Holy Cross	Pat	0.02	0.02	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Lamar	Slnd	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.02	0.02	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Penn St.	B10	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Providence	BE	0.02	0.02	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.02	0.02	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Xavier	A10	0.02	0.02	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01