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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Drexel

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:247.0
Current RPI:247
Expected SOS:83
Current SOS:83
Current Record:6-24
Expected Record:6-24
Current Conf Record:4-16
Expected Conf Record:4-16
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-12
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-2
Current OOC Record:2-8
Expected OOC Record:2-8
Expected OOC RPI:238
Expected OOC SOS:61



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
6-24247.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Drexel.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Saint Joseph's (22.0)A10A82-81L0%0.0
11-18High Point (158.0)BSthH66-75L0%0.0
11-21Monmouth (52.0)MAACH74-82L0%0.0
11-26UNC Asheville (137.0)BSthN85-66L0%0.0
11-28San Diego (302.0)WCCN59-62L0%0.0
12-5La Salle (232.0)A10A53-66W100%0.0
12-15South Carolina (65.0)SECA79-54L0%0.0
12-19Penn St. (125.0)B10H57-63L0%0.0
12-22Penn (283.0)IvyH53-52W100%0.0
12-28Iona (77.0)MAACA77-70L0%0.0
12-31UNC Wilmington (45.0)CAAA75-63L0%0.0
1-2Elon (160.0)CAAA83-78L0%0.0
1-7William & Mary (67.0)CAAH63-72L0%0.0
1-9College of Charleston (135.0)CAAH61-54W100%0.0
1-14Hofstra (54.0)CAAA69-61L0%0.0
1-16Towson (150.0)CAAA69-50L0%0.0
1-21James Madison (103.0)CAAA68-45L0%0.0
1-24UNC Wilmington (45.0)CAAH71-77L0%0.0
1-28Towson (150.0)CAAH70-77L0%0.0
1-30Hofstra (54.0)CAAH64-70L0%0.0
2-4James Madison (103.0)CAAH56-78L0%0.0
2-6College of Charleston (135.0)CAAA60-38L0%0.0
2-11Delaware (274.0)CAAA69-60L0%0.0
2-13Northeastern (109.0)CAAA70-60L0%0.0
2-18Elon (160.0)CAAH76-81L0%0.0
2-20William & Mary (67.0)CAAA69-74W100%0.0
2-25Delaware (274.0)CAAH74-64W100%0.0
2-27Northeastern (109.0)CAAH59-61L0%0.0
3-4Elon (160.0)CAAN56-57W100%0.0
3-5Hofstra (54.0)CAAN80-67L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Drexel's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Drexel's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Drexel.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DrexelCAA26.5326.5319.1819.18-16.35-16.35
HofstraCAA6.116.1168.9768.972.322.32
ElonCAA5.955.9544.4444.44-0.66-0.66
UNC WilmingtonCAA4.504.5075.0075.002.252.25
William & MaryCAA4.474.4762.9662.961.161.16
NortheasternCAA4.434.4350.0050.000.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA4.434.4353.5753.570.320.32
DelawareCAA4.404.4021.4321.43-2.51-2.51
TowsonCAA4.404.4057.1457.140.630.63
James MadisonCAA4.384.3862.0762.071.061.06
La SalleA101.881.8827.5927.59-0.84-0.84
UNC AshevilleBSth1.811.8163.3363.330.480.48
IonaMAAC1.801.8067.7467.740.640.64
High PointBSth1.781.7862.9662.960.460.46
Saint Joseph'sA101.751.7578.7978.791.011.01
MonmouthMAAC1.741.7478.7978.791.001.00
South CarolinaSEC1.741.7473.3373.330.810.81
PennIvy1.721.7238.4638.46-0.40-0.40
Penn St.B101.671.6748.3948.39-0.05-0.05
San DiegoWCC1.671.6725.0025.00-0.83-0.83
RadfordBSth0.250.2548.2848.28-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.230.2342.4242.42-0.04-0.04
SienaMAAC0.210.2163.6463.640.060.06
LibertyBSth0.200.2034.4834.48-0.06-0.06
CampbellBSth0.190.1933.3333.33-0.06-0.06
George MasonA100.190.1934.3834.38-0.06-0.06
Western MichiganMAC0.190.1936.6736.67-0.05-0.05
DaytonA100.190.1978.1278.120.100.10
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.170.1757.6957.690.030.03
East CarolinaAmer0.160.1637.5037.50-0.04-0.04
MaristMAAC0.160.1623.3323.33-0.08-0.08
St. BonaventureA100.150.1573.3373.330.070.07
RiderMAAC0.150.1539.3939.39-0.03-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.140.1423.3323.33-0.08-0.08
ColumbiaIvy0.140.1465.5265.520.040.04
WinthropBSth0.140.1468.9768.970.050.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.140.1448.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.140.1443.3343.33-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
VillanovaBE0.140.1485.2985.290.100.10
FIUCUSA0.140.1436.6736.67-0.04-0.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.140.1442.4242.42-0.02-0.02
DavidsonA100.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
Miami FLACC0.140.1478.1278.120.080.08
MichiganB100.140.1463.6463.640.040.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.130.1322.5822.58-0.07-0.07
Stony BrookAE0.130.1380.0080.000.080.08
FairfieldMAAC0.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.130.1321.8821.88-0.07-0.07
HarvardIvy0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.110.1122.2222.22-0.06-0.06
PresbyterianBSth0.110.1128.5728.57-0.05-0.05
UNC GreensboroSC0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
BradleyMVC0.110.1112.9012.90-0.08-0.08
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.110.1151.5251.520.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.110.1145.4545.45-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
FordhamA100.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
MassachusettsA100.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
George WashingtonA100.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
ManhattanMAAC0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.0916.6716.67-0.06-0.06
NavyPat0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.090.0977.7877.780.050.05
Loyola MarymountWCC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
SyracuseACC0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0876.6776.670.040.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
LSUSEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
MississippiSEC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.080.0824.2424.24-0.04-0.04
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0862.8662.860.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0821.8821.88-0.05-0.05
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.080.0844.1244.12-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
LipscombASun0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
USCP120.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
VCUA100.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
BrownIvy0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
YaleIvy0.060.0677.7877.780.030.03
LafayettePat0.060.0620.0020.00-0.04-0.04
BYUWCC0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
HamptonMEAC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
HowardMEAC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
PacificWCC0.060.0623.0823.08-0.03-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
PortlandWCC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.060.0683.8783.870.040.04
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
The CitadelSC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UMBCAE0.060.0621.8821.88-0.03-0.03
UMKCWAC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
DePaulBE0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
TulsaAmer0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
Saint LouisA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Miami OHMAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.050.0547.0647.06-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
VermontAE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
RutgersB100.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
BinghamtonAE0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Texas TechB120.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
UC DavisBW0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
AuburnSEC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
FurmanSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
MemphisAmer0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
AkronMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
BucknellPat0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
ColoradoP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.030.0344.1244.12-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
MarylandB100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
PurdueB100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
VMISC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
ArmyPat0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
UCLAP120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
WagnerNEC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01