Drexel

Conference:	CAA
Expected RPI:	206.0
Current RPI:	206
Expected SOS:	176
Current SOS:	176
Current Record:	13-18
Expected Record:	13-18
Current Conf Record:	9-10
Expected Conf Record:	9-10
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-14
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-1
Current OOC Record:	4-8
Expected OOC Record:	4-8
Expected OOC RPI:	190
Expected OOC SOS:	79

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
13-18	206.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Drexel.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Kent St. (131.0)	MAC	A	66-62	L	0%
11-15	Illinois St. (117.0)	MVC	H	84-86	L	0%
11-17	Pennsylvania (280.0)	Ivy	A	59-61	W	100%
11-22	St. Mary's (29.0)	WCC	N	76-64	L	0%
11-23	Xavier (87.0)	A10	N	65-69	L	0%
11-25	Rice (324.0)	CUSA	N	47-55	W	100%
12-1	Rider (145.0)	MAAC	H	66-75	L	0%
12-4	Tennessee St. (105.0)	OVC	A	76-66	L	0%
12-8	Princeton (124.0)	Ivy	A	57-64	W	100%
12-16	Fairfield (173.0)	MAAC	A	69-58	L	0%
12-22	Davidson (61.0)	SC	H	69-58	W	100%
12-31	Saint Joseph's (82.0)	A10	H	49-63	L	0%
1-2	Georgia St. (209.0)	CAA	A	60-77	W	100%
1-5	Towson (157.0)	CAA	H	66-69	L	0%
1-8	Northeastern (159.0)	CAA	H	58-63	L	0%
1-12	James Madison (182.0)	CAA	A	51-43	L	0%
1-19	William & Mary (271.0)	CAA	A	48-59	W	100%
1-23	Hofstra (325.0)	CAA	A	52-55	W	100%
1-26	Georgia St. (209.0)	CAA	H	68-57	W	100%
1-28	Delaware (141.0)	CAA	H	64-66	L	0%
1-31	George Mason (162.0)	CAA	A	54-58	W	100%
2-2	Northeastern (159.0)	CAA	A	59-52	L	0%
2-7	Old Dominion (318.0)	CAA	H	66-78	L	0%
2-10	James Madison (182.0)	CAA	H	60-48	W	100%
2-14	George Mason (162.0)	CAA	H	62-68	L	0%
2-18	Hofstra (325.0)	CAA	H	63-54	W	100%
2-21	Delaware (141.0)	CAA	A	73-71	L	0%
2-23	Towson (157.0)	CAA	A	72-71	L	0%
2-28	Old Dominion (318.0)	CAA	A	77-81	W	100%
3-2	NC Wilmington (301.0)	CAA	H	62-46	W	100%
3-9	George Mason (162.0)	CAA	N	60-54	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Drexel's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Drexel's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Drexel.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Drexel	CAA	26.31	26.31	42.86	42.86	-3.76	-3.76
George Mason	CAA	5.64	5.64	55.17	55.17	0.58	0.58
Delaware	CAA	4.21	4.21	54.84	54.84	0.41	0.41
Northeastern	CAA	4.16	4.16	60.00	60.00	0.83	0.83
James Madison	CAA	4.14	4.14	59.38	59.38	0.78	0.78
Hofstra	CAA	4.05	4.05	20.69	20.69	-2.38	-2.38
Old Dominion	CAA	4.02	4.02	14.29	14.29	-2.87	-2.87
Georgia St.	CAA	4.00	4.00	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Towson	CAA	4.00	4.00	53.57	53.57	0.29	0.29
William & Mary	CAA	2.54	2.54	42.86	42.86	-0.36	-0.36
NC Wilmington	CAA	2.49	2.49	32.14	32.14	-0.89	-0.89
Pennsylvania	Ivy	1.82	1.82	30.00	30.00	-0.73	-0.73
Fairfield	MAAC	1.79	1.79	54.55	54.55	0.16	0.16
Princeton	Ivy	1.77	1.77	61.54	61.54	0.41	0.41
Rider	MAAC	1.76	1.76	54.84	54.84	0.17	0.17
Saint Joseph's	A10	1.71	1.71	56.67	56.67	0.23	0.23
Xavier	A10	1.69	1.69	53.33	53.33	0.11	0.11
Kent St.	MAC	1.67	1.67	58.06	58.06	0.27	0.27
Tennessee St.	OVC	1.67	1.67	51.72	51.72	0.06	0.06
Davidson	SC	1.64	1.64	80.65	80.65	1.01	1.01
Illinois St.	MVC	1.61	1.61	53.12	53.12	0.10	0.10
Rice	CUSA	1.61	1.61	14.29	14.29	-1.15	-1.15
St. Mary's	WCC	1.61	1.61	80.65	80.65	0.99	0.99
Richmond	A10	0.31	0.31	56.25	56.25	0.04	0.04
Temple	A10	0.23	0.23	71.88	71.88	0.10	0.10
Rhode Island	A10	0.21	0.21	27.59	27.59	-0.09	-0.09
La Salle	A10	0.20	0.20	70.00	70.00	0.08	0.08
Virginia	ACC	0.20	0.20	65.62	65.62	0.06	0.06
Harvard	Ivy	0.19	0.19	66.67	66.67	0.06	0.06
College of Charleston	SC	0.18	0.18	72.73	72.73	0.08	0.08
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.18	0.18	65.62	65.62	0.06	0.06
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.17	0.17	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Manhattan	MAAC	0.17	0.17	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Yale	Ivy	0.16	0.16	41.38	41.38	-0.03	-0.03
Monmouth	NEC	0.16	0.16	32.26	32.26	-0.06	-0.06
Fordham	A10	0.16	0.16	22.58	22.58	-0.09	-0.09
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.16	0.16	23.33	23.33	-0.08	-0.08
George Washington	A10	0.15	0.15	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Purdue	B10	0.13	0.13	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.13	0.13	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.13	0.13	76.47	76.47	0.07	0.07
Belmont	OVC	0.13	0.13	80.00	80.00	0.08	0.08
Brigham Young	WCC	0.13	0.13	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Bucknell	Pat	0.13	0.13	84.38	84.38	0.09	0.09
Radford	BSth	0.13	0.13	34.48	34.48	-0.04	-0.04
Georgia Southern	SC	0.13	0.13	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Drake	MVC	0.13	0.13	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.13	0.13	84.38	84.38	0.09	0.09
Charlotte	A10	0.13	0.13	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Boston University	AE	0.13	0.13	58.62	58.62	0.02	0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.13	0.13	26.67	26.67	-0.06	-0.06
Iona	MAAC	0.12	0.12	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
San Diego	WCC	0.12	0.12	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.12	0.12	30.00	30.00	-0.05	-0.05
Brown	Ivy	0.11	0.11	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.11	0.11	38.46	38.46	-0.03	-0.03
Cornell	Ivy	0.11	0.11	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.11	0.11	29.63	29.63	-0.05	-0.05
Wagner	NEC	0.11	0.11	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.11	0.11	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Tulane	CUSA	0.11	0.11	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.11	0.11	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
Akron	MAC	0.11	0.11	80.65	80.65	0.06	0.06
Buffalo	MAC	0.11	0.11	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Lafayette	Pat	0.10	0.10	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Wofford	SC	0.10	0.10	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Vermont	AE	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Butler	A10	0.10	0.10	75.76	75.76	0.05	0.05
Hampton	MEAC	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.10	0.10	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.10	0.10	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
Villanova	BE	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Gonzaga	WCC	0.10	0.10	93.75	93.75	0.09	0.09
New Mexico	MWC	0.10	0.10	85.29	85.29	0.07	0.07
NC Greensboro	SC	0.10	0.10	24.14	24.14	-0.05	-0.05
Creighton	MVC	0.10	0.10	79.41	79.41	0.06	0.06
Duquesne	A10	0.10	0.10	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
Canisius	MAAC	0.10	0.10	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Marist	MAAC	0.10	0.10	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Niagara	MAAC	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Siena	MAAC	0.10	0.10	25.00	25.00	-0.05	-0.05
Houston	CUSA	0.08	0.08	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Central Florida	CUSA	0.08	0.08	62.07	62.07	0.02	0.02
East Carolina	CUSA	0.08	0.08	53.85	53.85	0.01	0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.08	0.08	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Morehead St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	65.52	65.52	0.03	0.03
South Alabama	SB	0.08	0.08	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Long Island	NEC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	22.58	22.58	-0.04	-0.04
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.08	0.08	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
NC Asheville	BSth	0.08	0.08	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Pacific	BW	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Appalachian St.	SC	0.08	0.08	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.08	0.08	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
Mercer	ASun	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
South Florida	BE	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.08	0.08	20.69	20.69	-0.04	-0.04
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.07	0.07	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.07	0.07	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.07	0.07	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.07	0.07	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Elon	SC	0.06	0.06	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Memphis	CUSA	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Holy Cross	Pat	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	10.00	10.00	-0.04	-0.04
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.05	0.05	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Troy	SB	0.05	0.05	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Furman	SC	0.05	0.05	17.24	17.24	-0.03	-0.03
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Maine	AE	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Pepperdine	WCC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Portland	WCC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.05	0.05	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.05	0.05	21.43	21.43	-0.03	-0.03
UC Riverside	BW	0.05	0.05	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
Western Carolina	SC	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.05	0.05	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Utah St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Pittsburgh	BE	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
San Jose St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.05	73.53	73.53	0.02	0.02
Winthrop	BSth	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.03	0.03	74.29	74.29	0.01	0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Hartford	AE	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
High Point	BSth	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
New Orleans	ind	0.03	0.03	18.18	18.18	-0.02	-0.02
Texas	B12	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas Christian	B12	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	28.00	28.00	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
American	Pat	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.03	0.03	6.90	6.90	-0.02	-0.02
Cincinnati	BE	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.03	0.03	48.00	48.00	-0.00	-0.00
Notre Dame	BE	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Cal Poly	BW	0.03	0.03	55.17	55.17	0.00	0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Montana	BSky	0.03	0.03	79.31	79.31	0.01	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Samford	SC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Stony Brook	AE	0.03	0.03	76.67	76.67	0.01	0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Valparaiso	Horz	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Louisville	BE	0.02	0.02	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.02	0.02	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.02	0.02	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.02	0.02	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Albany	AE	0.02	0.02	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.02	0.02	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Providence	BE	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00