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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Drexel

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:132.0
Current RPI:132
Expected SOS:149
Current SOS:149
Current Record:16-14
Expected Record:16-14
Current Conf Record:8-9
Expected Conf Record:8-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-4
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:48
Expected OOC SOS:41



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-14132.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Drexel.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8UCLA (14.0)P12A72-67L0%0.0
11-12Illinois St. (134.0)MVCA70-78W100%0.0
11-18Elon (162.0)SCN64-71W100%0.0
11-19Rutgers (192.0)AmerA59-70W100%0.0
11-27Arizona (2.0)P12N66-62L0%0.0
11-29Alabama (124.0)SECN85-83W100%0.0
12-4Cleveland St. (91.0)HorzH85-82W100%0.0
12-7Tennessee St. (300.0)OVCH75-61W100%0.0
12-15Davidson (126.0)SCA58-72W100%0.0
12-18Saint Joseph's (32.0)A10A75-55L0%0.0
12-22St. Francis PA (298.0)NECH59-49W100%0.0
12-29Buffalo (106.0)MACH52-55L0%0.0
1-3Southern Miss (33.0)CUSAA66-49L0%0.0
1-8William & Mary (119.0)CAAA85-73L0%0.0
1-11Northeastern (222.0)CAAH93-88W100%0.0
1-14Towson (95.0)CAAH68-80L0%0.0
1-18UNC Wilmington (281.0)CAAA63-79W100%0.0
1-20Delaware (65.0)CAAH77-90L0%0.0
1-25William & Mary (119.0)CAAH66-68L0%0.0
1-29Hofstra (277.0)CAAA74-77W100%0.0
2-1Towson (95.0)CAAA75-73L0%0.0
2-3UNC Wilmington (281.0)CAAH61-50W100%0.0
2-8James Madison (233.0)CAAH78-60W100%0.0
2-13College of Charleston (242.0)CAAA47-46L0%0.0
2-16Hofstra (277.0)CAAH74-63W100%0.0
2-19James Madison (233.0)CAAA63-61L0%0.0
2-23Delaware (65.0)CAAA65-69W100%0.0
2-26College of Charleston (242.0)CAAH56-45W100%0.0
3-1Northeastern (222.0)CAAA54-52L0%0.0
3-8Northeastern (222.0)CAAN81-90L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Drexel's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Drexel's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Drexel.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DrexelCAA26.3326.3355.0755.072.672.67
NortheasternCAA5.795.7931.0331.03-2.20-2.20
DelawareCAA4.314.3175.0075.002.162.16
William & MaryCAA4.304.3058.6258.620.740.74
HofstraCAA4.234.2332.2632.26-1.50-1.50
TowsonCAA4.234.2365.5265.521.311.31
College of CharlestonCAA4.204.2041.3841.38-0.72-0.72
James MadisonCAA4.184.1834.4834.48-1.30-1.30
UNC WilmingtonCAA4.174.1725.0025.00-2.08-2.08
DavidsonSC1.781.7863.3363.330.470.47
UCLAP121.741.7475.7675.760.900.90
ElonSC1.721.7257.1457.140.250.25
RutgersAmer1.721.7235.4835.48-0.50-0.50
ArizonaP121.721.7287.8887.881.301.30
Illinois St.MVC1.701.7051.7251.720.060.06
Tennessee St.OVC1.691.6914.2914.29-1.21-1.21
AlabamaSEC1.691.6940.0040.00-0.34-0.34
BuffaloMAC1.671.6762.9662.960.430.43
Cleveland St.Horz1.671.6765.5265.520.520.52
Saint Joseph'sA101.671.6771.8871.880.730.73
Southern MissCUSA1.671.6780.0080.001.001.00
St. Francis PANEC1.671.6733.3333.33-0.56-0.56
RichmondA100.310.3157.5857.580.050.05
CharlotteCUSA0.210.2154.8454.840.020.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.210.2160.6160.610.050.05
Robert MorrisNEC0.210.2161.7661.760.050.05
LouisvilleAmer0.210.2185.2985.290.150.15
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.210.2131.0331.03-0.08-0.08
Wichita St.MVC0.190.19100.00100.000.190.19
UNC GreensboroSC0.190.1937.9337.93-0.05-0.05
The CitadelSC0.190.1913.7913.79-0.14-0.14
Old DominionCUSA0.190.1948.4848.48-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.180.1834.4834.48-0.06-0.06
TulaneCUSA0.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.180.1833.3333.33-0.06-0.06
Western CarolinaSC0.170.1751.6151.610.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.160.1678.1278.120.090.09
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.160.1693.1093.100.140.14
LibertyBSth0.160.1627.5927.59-0.07-0.07
HamptonMEAC0.160.1660.0060.000.030.03
VCUA100.160.1676.4776.470.080.08
Oregon St.P120.150.1551.6151.610.000.00
ColoradoP120.150.1567.6567.650.050.05
Ball St.MAC0.140.1410.7110.71-0.11-0.11
Kent St.MAC0.140.1448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.140.1425.9325.93-0.07-0.07
WoffordSC0.140.1458.6258.620.020.02
DukeACC0.130.1376.4776.470.070.07
TempleAmer0.130.1329.0329.03-0.05-0.05
UABCUSA0.130.1355.1755.170.010.01
DaytonA100.130.1369.7069.700.050.05
North Dakota St.Sum0.130.1378.5778.570.070.07
St. BonaventureA100.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
VillanovaBE0.130.1387.5087.500.100.10
Arizona St.P120.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
OregonP120.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
StanfordP120.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
UtahP120.120.1263.3363.330.030.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.03-0.03
SamfordSC0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
DetroitHorz0.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
BelmontOVC0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
OaklandHorz0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
MaristMAAC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
High PointBSth0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
HowardMEAC0.110.1119.3519.35-0.07-0.07
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.110.1168.9768.970.040.04
GeorgetownBE0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Boston UniversityPat0.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
BryantNEC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
SMUAmer0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
Rhode IslandA100.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
CaliforniaP120.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Miami OHMAC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.090.0963.6463.640.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
Appalachian St.SC0.080.0819.2319.23-0.05-0.05
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
AuburnSEC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
VMIBSth0.080.0855.5655.560.010.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
Western KentuckySB0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
NavyPat0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
VirginiaACC0.080.0882.3582.350.050.05
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
MassachusettsA100.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
LSUSEC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
MissouriSEC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
San Diego St.MWC0.080.0887.1087.100.060.06
FairfieldMAAC0.080.0821.8821.88-0.04-0.04
Florida St.ACC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
HarvardIvy0.080.0886.2186.210.060.06
Stony BrookAE0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
NJITind0.080.0836.0036.00-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.080.0816.1316.13-0.05-0.05
SienaMAAC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
USCP120.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
ToledoMAC0.060.0681.2581.250.040.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0621.2121.21-0.03-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
BradleyMVC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.060.0677.7877.780.030.03
UICHorz0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
IowaB100.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Iowa St.B120.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0663.3363.330.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
DePaulBE0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.050.0594.1294.120.050.05
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
KansasB120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Miami FLACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
MississippiSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
New HampshireAE0.050.0517.2417.24-0.04-0.04
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.04-0.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
UMBCAE0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
WagnerNEC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
WinthropBSth0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0573.5373.530.030.03
VermontAE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
NorthwesternB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
DuquesneA100.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
HoustonAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
MemphisAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
La SalleA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
WashingtonP120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
LipscombASun0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.030.0359.2659.260.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
AmericanPat0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
ClemsonACC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
ColgatePat0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.030.033.703.70-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
North FloridaASun0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0341.1841.18-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
TulsaCUSA0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0370.3770.370.010.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
YaleIvy0.030.0351.8551.850.000.00
CreightonBE0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
NevadaMWC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0230.3030.30-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
UNLVMWC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.020.0260.7160.710.010.01