live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Jan 28, 2015.


Drexel

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:265.1
Current RPI:251
Expected SOS:158
Current SOS:147
Current Record:6-13
Expected Record:9-19
Current Conf Record:4-5
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-4
Current OOC Record:2-8
Expected OOC Record:2-8
Expected OOC RPI:290
Expected OOC SOS:131



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-13170.00.01%
14-14182.20.06%
13-15200.60.40%
12-16217.52.83%
11-17234.310.08%
10-18250.722.69%
9-19267.530.47%
8-20282.723.35%
7-21295.28.89%
6-22305.11.21%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Drexel.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Colorado (94.3)P12A65-48L0%0.0
11-17Saint Joseph's (200.3)A10H49-52L0%0.0
11-20Miami FL (53.0)ACCN66-46L0%0.0
11-21USC (172.2)P12N70-72L0%0.0
11-23Cornell (195.4)IvyN59-61W100%0.0
11-30Southern Miss (299.7)CUSAH59-36W100%0.0
12-13La Salle (105.6)A10H55-65L0%0.0
12-16Buffalo (43.5)MACA80-70L0%0.0
12-20Penn St. (106.4)B10N73-68L0%0.0
12-28Iona (65.7)MAACH62-81L0%0.0
1-3Elon (255.1)CAAH67-77L0%0.0
1-5William & Mary (73.7)CAAH47-73L0%0.0
1-8Towson (274.6)CAAA41-55W100%0.0
1-10UNC Wilmington (143.3)CAAA64-57L0%0.0
1-15James Madison (149.5)CAAH35-54L0%0.0
1-17Delaware (302.0)CAAA62-66W100%0.0
1-21Hofstra (134.0)CAAA86-58L0%0.0
1-24College of Charleston (259.3)CAAH53-51W100%0.0
1-28Northeastern (110.0)CAAH65-60W100%0.0
1-31UNC Wilmington (143.3)CAAH0-045%-1.4
2-5Elon (255.1)CAAA0-032%-5.0
2-7College of Charleston (259.3)CAAA0-032%-5.0
2-11Towson (274.6)CAAH0-063%3.7
2-14Hofstra (134.0)CAAH0-021%-9.0
2-18James Madison (149.5)CAAA0-021%-8.7
2-21Northeastern (110.0)CAAA0-014%-11.9
2-25Delaware (302.0)CAAH0-072%6.3
2-28William & Mary (73.7)CAAA0-08%-15.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Drexel's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Drexel's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Drexel.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DrexelCAA26.2826.3828.8730.51-11.11-10.28
College of CharlestonCAA3.154.5730.0032.96-1.26-1.56
HofstraCAA3.224.5761.9066.920.771.55
TowsonCAA3.164.5742.1139.04-0.50-1.00
James MadisonCAA3.144.5457.1456.140.450.56
NortheasternCAA3.154.5466.6765.861.051.44
DelawareCAA3.154.5321.0522.89-1.82-2.46
ElonCAA3.154.5342.1139.54-0.50-0.95
UNC WilmingtonCAA3.144.5355.5654.860.350.44
William & MaryCAA3.144.5358.8262.420.551.12
La SalleA102.831.9652.6351.730.150.07
USCP122.761.8744.4438.12-0.31-0.45
Penn St.B102.781.8565.0052.630.830.10
ColoradoP122.701.8550.0049.460.00-0.02
CornellIvy2.761.8450.0050.000.00-0.00
Miami FLACC2.691.8468.4264.930.990.55
Saint Joseph'sA102.701.8438.8937.22-0.60-0.47
BuffaloMAC2.711.8266.6764.870.900.54
IonaMAAC2.631.7970.0073.981.050.86
Southern MissCUSA2.631.7926.6723.70-1.23-0.94
RichmondA100.190.2455.0056.850.020.03
CharlotteCUSA0.320.2442.1151.50-0.050.01
MassachusettsA100.260.2052.6353.060.010.01
DavidsonA100.130.1876.4776.940.070.10
St. BonaventureA100.200.1861.1156.090.050.02
TempleAmer0.270.1866.6763.830.090.05
CampbellBSth0.190.1826.3232.93-0.09-0.06
George MasonA100.270.1829.4131.81-0.11-0.06
Old DominionCUSA0.140.1678.9579.620.080.10
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.200.1533.3334.41-0.07-0.05
StanfordP120.140.1575.0071.410.070.06
Rhode IslandA100.150.1572.2268.860.070.06
Morgan St.MEAC0.190.1520.0027.27-0.12-0.07
MaristMAAC0.140.1510.0013.95-0.11-0.11
AkronMAC0.200.1568.4263.640.070.04
FordhamA100.200.1523.5324.53-0.10-0.07
HowardMEAC0.220.1341.1844.41-0.04-0.01
LibertyBSth0.140.1311.7617.58-0.10-0.08
UNC GreensboroSC0.140.1316.6722.15-0.09-0.07
High PointBSth0.130.1272.2269.130.060.05
OhioMAC0.140.1238.8935.54-0.03-0.04
East CarolinaAmer0.130.1233.3331.57-0.04-0.04
LouisvilleACC0.070.1285.0078.450.050.07
MinnesotaB100.130.1257.1454.370.020.01
Miami OHMAC0.200.1231.5830.47-0.08-0.05
PennIvy0.140.1233.3334.33-0.05-0.04
VillanovaBE0.200.1290.0084.550.160.08
Cal PolyBW0.130.1250.0050.450.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.210.1253.3356.000.010.01
HarvardIvy0.060.1264.2965.390.020.04
UCLAP120.140.1255.0052.200.010.01
UtahP120.140.1283.3383.740.090.08
CanisiusMAAC0.270.1257.8962.550.040.03
ColgatePat0.200.1238.1043.87-0.05-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.140.1247.6250.25-0.010.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.130.1214.2915.28-0.09-0.08
Coppin St.MEAC0.130.1210.5319.81-0.10-0.07
George WashingtonA100.270.1276.1969.640.140.05
MonmouthMAAC0.130.1252.3854.030.010.01
NavyPat0.130.1235.0035.75-0.04-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.200.1261.1156.280.040.01
FairfieldMAAC0.120.1230.0029.50-0.05-0.05
Florida St.ACC0.060.1252.3845.690.00-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.060.1247.3747.26-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.120.1257.1462.500.020.03
Ohio St.B100.060.1276.1976.580.030.06
VirginiaACC0.190.12100.0094.050.190.10
RiceCUSA0.160.1025.0028.06-0.08-0.04
FloridaSEC0.140.0955.0055.300.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.070.0980.9576.520.050.05
WoffordSC0.140.0973.6873.930.060.05
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0942.8642.74-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.150.0963.1658.860.040.02
ArmyPat0.140.0966.6762.850.050.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.140.0950.0054.890.000.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.140.0925.0037.83-0.07-0.02
LSUSEC0.140.0980.0070.790.090.04
DartmouthIvy0.060.0950.0050.950.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.130.0944.4449.87-0.01-0.00
DukeACC0.130.0985.0081.750.090.06
NorthwesternB100.070.0950.0043.540.00-0.01
ArizonaP120.070.0990.4887.950.060.07
Arizona St.P120.070.0952.3853.760.000.01
CaliforniaP120.070.0955.0045.900.01-0.01
OregonP120.070.0965.0058.730.020.02
Oregon St.P120.070.0968.4260.540.030.02
WashingtonP120.070.0970.0063.190.030.02
Washington St.P120.070.0947.3738.08-0.00-0.02
RadfordBSth0.140.0963.1663.990.040.02
SienaMAAC0.140.0942.1138.13-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.060.0935.2936.00-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.140.0947.3742.62-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.070.0984.2179.480.050.05
DuquesneA100.130.0927.7826.35-0.06-0.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.130.0936.8438.54-0.03-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.190.0915.7923.11-0.13-0.05
WisconsinB100.130.0990.0087.320.110.07
North Carolina St.ACC0.130.0959.0956.180.020.01
Virginia TechACC0.060.0945.0037.54-0.01-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.130.0957.8956.810.020.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.080.0773.6872.620.040.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.080.0757.8956.260.010.01
UABCUSA0.080.0747.3749.93-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.080.0763.1668.500.020.02
UTSACUSA0.080.0743.7543.15-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0731.2527.83-0.03-0.03
VMISC0.070.0631.5837.72-0.03-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.0670.5967.510.030.02
MarshallCUSA0.060.0616.6723.31-0.04-0.03
North TexasCUSA0.140.0635.2933.17-0.04-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.150.0622.2226.60-0.08-0.03
BrownIvy0.000.0641.1837.75-0.00-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0626.3236.50-0.03-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0625.0025.63-0.03-0.03
MissouriSEC0.070.0633.3330.18-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.070.0652.6360.390.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0643.7542.94-0.00-0.01
YaleIvy0.000.0664.7164.150.000.02
BinghamtonAE0.150.069.5215.05-0.12-0.04
Loyola MDPat0.150.0636.8432.80-0.04-0.02
SyracuseACC0.140.0666.6758.780.050.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0621.0530.50-0.04-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0676.4771.620.000.03
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0673.3372.260.030.03
GeorgetownBE0.070.0670.0065.320.030.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.0673.6866.800.000.02
UMBCAE0.070.0614.2916.99-0.05-0.04
VermontAE0.140.0650.0055.820.000.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0644.4437.23-0.00-0.01
VCUA100.070.0685.0082.100.050.04
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0644.4441.02-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.060.0638.8942.63-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0661.1160.440.010.01
DetroitHorz0.060.0640.0042.29-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.060.0623.5328.46-0.03-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0650.0052.160.000.00
IllinoisB100.070.0661.9060.270.020.01
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0621.0521.27-0.03-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.060.0620.0024.50-0.04-0.03
MarylandB100.000.0685.7177.600.000.03
RiderMAAC0.130.0661.9062.460.030.01
RutgersB100.130.0647.6238.09-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.060.0640.0045.19-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.060.0678.9573.970.030.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0647.3741.05-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0628.5732.18-0.03-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.060.0630.0031.90-0.02-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.060.0661.9066.000.010.02
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0673.6865.320.030.02
The CitadelSC0.060.0629.4131.68-0.03-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0680.0079.170.040.03
WagnerNEC0.060.0627.7832.07-0.03-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.060.0642.8638.96-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.060.0685.0075.810.040.03
FIUCUSA0.000.0343.7540.97-0.00-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.080.0363.1666.660.020.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0361.1160.430.020.01
TroySB0.080.0331.2531.44-0.03-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0350.0051.200.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.080.0340.0041.39-0.02-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.070.0338.8937.23-0.02-0.01
AuburnSEC0.070.0347.3738.48-0.00-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.070.0333.3331.74-0.02-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0385.0081.570.050.02
DenverSum0.070.0345.0047.69-0.01-0.00
DePaulBE0.070.0352.3843.960.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0356.2557.190.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0373.6866.480.030.01
GonzagaWCC0.070.0395.0094.600.060.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0347.3750.37-0.000.00
HawaiiBW0.070.0363.1657.290.020.00
KentuckySEC0.070.03100.0098.450.070.03
LipscombASun0.070.0341.1842.82-0.01-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.070.0325.0025.38-0.03-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.070.0365.0063.010.020.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0343.7552.25-0.010.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0341.1838.38-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.070.0350.0047.440.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0340.0041.94-0.01-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0366.6768.890.020.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.070.0342.1145.58-0.01-0.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0360.0058.630.000.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0361.1159.740.020.01
Utah St.MWC0.070.0357.8955.900.010.00
WyomingMWC0.070.0378.9573.780.040.01
AmericanPat0.070.0352.3853.960.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.060.0380.0072.660.040.01
BucknellPat0.060.0352.3852.420.000.00
ClemsonACC0.000.0360.0052.320.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0350.0053.490.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0352.9458.930.000.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0361.1166.610.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.070.0350.0046.850.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.070.0378.9577.900.040.02
IndianaB100.060.0371.4366.440.030.01
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0345.0044.02-0.01-0.00
IowaB100.000.0365.0063.250.000.01
MichiganB100.060.0360.0052.380.010.00
Michigan St.B100.060.0365.0063.410.020.01
NebraskaB100.000.0360.0049.340.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.070.0390.9185.840.050.02
PittsburghACC0.000.0360.0052.080.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.070.0375.0065.020.030.01
PurdueB100.060.0361.9058.760.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0316.6725.24-0.04-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0355.0060.950.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0352.6353.030.000.00