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Through games of Nov 21, 2014.


Drexel

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:256.6
Current RPI:251
Expected SOS:160
Current SOS:148
Current Record:0-4
Expected Record:9-18
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-6
Current OOC Record:0-4
Expected OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC RPI:310
Expected OOC SOS:74



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-984.00.02%
17-10108.60.08%
16-11127.00.22%
15-12146.90.68%
14-13165.52.11%
13-14187.04.33%
12-15206.28.18%
11-16227.113.06%
10-17245.816.79%
9-18264.517.87%
8-19281.915.12%
7-20296.410.87%
6-21310.06.22%
5-22319.82.94%
4-23329.31.15%
3-24336.10.27%
2-25345.10.08%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Drexel.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Colorado (47.7)P12A65-48L0%0.0
11-17Saint Joseph's (219.2)A10H49-52L0%0.0
11-20Miami FL (18.8)ACCN66-46L0%0.0
11-21USC (224.1)P12N70-72L0%0.0
11-30Southern Miss (153.1)CUSAH0-045%-1.4
12-13La Salle (108.6)A10H0-035%-4.5
12-16Buffalo (82.8)MACA0-019%-10.4
12-20Penn St. (125.3)B10N0-025%-8.2
12-28Iona (78.5)MAACH0-032%-5.5
1-3Elon (244.0)CAAH0-064%4.3
1-5William & Mary (181.5)CAAH0-055%1.4
1-8Towson (216.7)CAAA0-038%-3.8
1-10UNC Wilmington (220.1)CAAA0-039%-3.3
1-14James Madison (240.3)CAAH0-061%3.4
1-17Delaware (269.3)CAAA0-044%-1.8
1-21Hofstra (145.0)CAAA0-022%-9.2
1-24College of Charleston (135.0)CAAH0-038%-3.6
1-28Northeastern (71.6)CAAH0-031%-6.0
1-31UNC Wilmington (220.1)CAAH0-063%3.9
2-5Elon (244.0)CAAA0-040%-2.9
2-7College of Charleston (135.0)CAAA0-018%-10.8
2-11Towson (216.7)CAAH0-061%3.4
2-14Hofstra (145.0)CAAH0-043%-2.0
2-18James Madison (240.3)CAAA0-038%-3.8
2-21Northeastern (71.6)CAAA0-014%-13.2
2-25Delaware (269.3)CAAH0-067%5.4
2-28William & Mary (181.5)CAAA0-032%-5.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Drexel's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Drexel's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Drexel.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DrexelCAA33.3326.420.0031.75-33.33-9.64
HofstraCAA0.004.7566.6763.560.001.29
College of CharlestonCAA0.004.7525.0056.18-0.000.59
TowsonCAA0.004.7566.6745.520.00-0.43
James MadisonCAA0.004.7266.6747.000.00-0.28
NortheasternCAA0.004.72100.0069.140.001.81
DelawareCAA0.004.710.0032.81-0.00-1.62
ElonCAA0.004.7150.0039.720.00-0.97
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.004.7150.0039.500.00-0.99
William & MaryCAA0.004.7150.0044.720.00-0.50
La SalleA100.002.04100.0055.600.000.23
USCP1212.501.9233.3324.09-4.17-0.99
ColoradoP1212.501.92100.0067.2512.500.66
Miami FLACC12.501.91100.0072.2712.500.85
Saint Joseph'sA1012.501.910.0031.13-12.50-0.72
BuffaloMAC0.001.8566.6759.130.000.34
IonaMAAC0.001.8566.6766.920.000.63
Penn St.B100.001.8575.0044.170.00-0.22
Southern MissCUSA0.001.8550.0052.700.000.10
RichmondA100.000.2550.0062.660.000.06
CharlotteCUSA0.000.22100.0070.040.000.09
MassachusettsA100.000.22100.0063.880.000.06
DavidsonA100.000.19100.0048.380.00-0.01
CampbellBSth0.000.190.0030.14-0.00-0.07
TempleAmer0.000.1966.6760.730.000.04
St. BonaventureA100.000.1950.0050.390.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.17100.0077.160.000.09
StanfordP120.000.16100.0068.290.000.06
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.160.0037.45-0.00-0.04
Rhode IslandA100.000.16100.0053.060.000.01
MaristMAAC0.000.160.0043.44-0.00-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC2.080.1650.0036.810.00-0.04
AkronMAC3.120.1666.6763.581.040.04
FordhamA100.000.150.0034.73-0.00-0.05
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.130.0028.95-0.00-0.06
LibertyBSth0.000.1350.0041.040.00-0.02
UCLAP120.000.13100.0061.850.000.03
UtahP120.000.1366.6770.360.000.05
High PointBSth0.000.13100.0058.330.000.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.13100.0079.370.000.08
Miami OHMAC0.000.1350.0033.640.00-0.04
MinnesotaB100.000.1350.0063.730.000.04
OhioMAC0.000.1350.0054.660.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.130.0034.69-0.00-0.04
Cal PolyBW0.000.1350.0038.240.00-0.03
VillanovaBE0.000.13100.0067.360.000.04
Florida St.ACC0.000.1250.0056.300.000.02
NavyPat0.000.120.0032.22-0.00-0.04
Western MichiganMAC0.000.12100.0055.380.000.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.120.0035.33-0.00-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.120.0031.68-0.00-0.04
FairfieldMAAC0.000.1233.3334.47-0.00-0.04
MonmouthMAAC0.000.1250.0059.350.000.02
Ohio St.B100.000.12100.0073.590.000.06
VirginiaACC0.000.12100.0076.260.000.06
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.120.0048.22-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.000.1050.0031.730.00-0.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.100.0034.26-0.00-0.03
FloridaSEC1.560.1066.6766.600.520.03
HowardMEAC1.560.100.0034.15-1.56-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.000.10100.0066.050.000.03
WoffordSC0.000.1066.6774.980.000.05
ArizonaP120.000.10100.0068.970.000.04
Arizona St.P120.000.10100.0058.420.000.02
Washington St.P120.000.1033.3327.05-0.00-0.05
WashingtonP120.000.10100.0056.460.000.01
DukeACC0.000.10100.0086.380.000.07
NorthwesternB100.000.10100.0043.710.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.1075.0073.240.000.05
OregonP120.000.10100.0070.690.000.04
Oregon St.P120.000.10100.0050.080.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.10100.0055.900.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.1066.6756.820.000.01
ArmyPat0.000.10100.0057.810.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0933.3338.44-0.00-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0933.3335.37-0.00-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0933.3343.51-0.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0950.0041.690.00-0.02
DaytonA100.000.0966.6769.310.000.04
DuquesneA100.000.090.0051.78-0.000.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0966.6777.370.000.05
Virginia TechACC0.000.09100.0041.370.00-0.02
WisconsinB100.000.09100.0081.110.000.06
George MasonA100.000.0925.0022.09-0.00-0.05
Ball St.MAC0.000.090.0038.12-0.00-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.000.09100.0057.010.000.01
ColgatePat0.000.090.0036.43-0.00-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.090.0043.82-0.00-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0950.0028.860.00-0.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.09100.0059.140.000.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0950.0055.680.000.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.090.0026.04-0.00-0.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0766.6768.330.000.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.070.0048.03-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.000.070.0043.40-0.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.07100.0069.630.000.03
UTSACUSA0.000.070.0028.13-0.00-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.000.070.0034.57-0.00-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.070.0027.11-0.00-0.03
MissouriSEC0.000.0766.6750.370.000.00
VMISC0.000.0750.0043.730.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0766.6751.090.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.070.0038.65-0.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0750.0043.330.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.06100.0046.320.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.060.0033.60-0.00-0.02
VermontAE0.000.0650.0066.020.000.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.060.0046.41-0.00-0.00
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0633.3357.87-0.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.06100.0061.540.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.06100.0075.400.000.03
CornellIvy0.000.0640.0041.64-0.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.000.060.0055.45-0.000.01
FurmanSC0.000.0650.0025.820.00-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0666.6766.420.000.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.06100.0064.920.000.02
HarvardIvy0.000.0650.0066.890.000.02
IllinoisB100.000.06100.0065.630.000.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.06100.0067.860.000.02
MarylandB100.000.06100.0063.680.000.02
PennIvy0.000.060.0025.28-0.00-0.03
RutgersB100.000.0650.0036.270.00-0.02
Saint LouisA100.000.06100.0066.070.000.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.06100.0070.600.000.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0650.0047.150.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0031.91-0.00-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0666.6764.990.000.02
The CitadelSC0.000.060.0027.74-0.00-0.03
UMBCAE0.000.060.0035.60-0.00-0.02
VCUA100.000.06100.0074.770.000.03
West VirginiaB120.000.06100.0068.580.000.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0045.780.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0650.0041.490.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.060.0015.68-0.00-0.04
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0650.0060.970.000.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.060.0024.25-0.00-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.000.0650.0021.230.00-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.000.060.0057.16-0.000.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0633.3344.86-0.00-0.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0666.6751.360.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0650.0036.850.00-0.02
SienaMAAC0.000.0633.3358.87-0.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.06100.0044.620.00-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0633.3363.09-0.000.02
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0666.6752.470.000.00
WagnerNEC0.000.060.0043.90-0.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.03100.0043.610.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.030.0058.17-0.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0333.3347.78-0.00-0.00
TroySB0.000.030.0046.30-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.000.0350.0045.330.00-0.00
AuburnSEC3.120.0366.6742.561.04-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.000.03100.0062.840.000.01
DePaulBE0.000.03100.0037.800.00-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0366.6757.590.000.01
LipscombASun0.000.030.0041.45-0.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.030.0047.54-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.000.03100.0061.810.000.01
WyomingMWC0.000.03100.0056.150.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.030.0038.57-0.00-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0333.3328.03-0.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0375.0062.010.000.01
Portland St.BSky1.560.03100.0051.301.560.00
Tennessee TechOVC1.560.030.0037.20-1.56-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.03100.0064.330.000.01
AmericanPat0.000.0366.6764.270.000.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.030.0039.15-0.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.000.0333.3346.82-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.000.0333.3344.93-0.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0033.39-0.00-0.01
DenverSum0.000.0350.0062.440.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.03100.0063.380.000.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0050.900.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.03100.0052.690.000.00
GonzagaWCC2.080.03100.0086.952.080.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0350.0049.560.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.000.030.0065.86-0.000.01
IndianaB100.000.03100.0063.850.000.01
IowaB100.000.0350.0067.840.000.01
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0086.080.000.02
Loyola MDPat0.000.0366.6738.520.00-0.01
MichiganB100.000.03100.0066.870.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0366.6771.300.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.03100.0051.030.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.03100.0045.530.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0069.430.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0366.6751.250.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.03100.0062.680.000.01
PurdueB100.000.03100.0060.570.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0333.3336.04-0.00-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0333.3349.18-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.030.0054.88-0.000.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0375.0070.210.000.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0333.3363.82-0.000.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0366.6754.260.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.03100.0074.210.000.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0350.0054.170.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.03100.0071.730.000.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0350.0051.340.000.00