Drexel

Conference:	CAA
Expected RPI:	242.0
Current RPI:	242
Expected SOS:	175
Current SOS:	175
Current Record:	12-20
Expected Record:	12-20
Current Conf Record:	7-13
Expected Conf Record:	7-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-7
Current OOC Record:	5-7
Expected OOC Record:	5-7
Expected OOC RPI:	230
Expected OOC SOS:	218

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
12-20	242.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Drexel.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Bowling Green (193.0)	MAC	H	69-78	L	0%
11-17	Houston (18.0)	Amer	N	80-84	W	100%
11-18	Mercer (174.0)	SC	N	59-78	L	0%
11-19	Drake (166.0)	MVC	N	90-88	L	0%
11-25	NJIT (269.0)	ASun	A	65-53	L	0%
11-29	Lafayette (311.0)	Pat	H	68-67	W	100%
12-2	Rider (69.0)	MAAC	H	89-77	W	100%
12-7	La Salle (202.0)	A10	A	70-72	W	100%
12-10	Robert Morris (196.0)	NEC	A	74-60	L	0%
12-16	Temple (52.0)	Amer	A	63-60	L	0%
12-18	Quinnipiac (277.0)	MAAC	H	72-71	W	100%
12-21	Loyola MD (322.0)	Pat	A	66-62	L	0%
12-30	Elon (205.0)	CAA	A	90-75	L	0%
1-2	UNC Wilmington (245.0)	CAA	A	107-87	L	0%
1-5	College of Charleston (57.0)	CAA	H	87-82	W	100%
1-7	William & Mary (94.0)	CAA	H	63-85	L	0%
1-11	Delaware (233.0)	CAA	A	72-66	L	0%
1-13	Hofstra (121.0)	CAA	H	86-91	L	0%
1-18	Towson (153.0)	CAA	A	90-68	L	0%
1-20	James Madison (272.0)	CAA	A	75-73	L	0%
1-25	Elon (205.0)	CAA	H	83-79	W	100%
1-27	Northeastern (55.0)	CAA	H	68-67	W	100%
2-1	James Madison (272.0)	CAA	H	76-74	W	100%
2-3	William & Mary (94.0)	CAA	A	79-91	W	100%
2-8	Towson (153.0)	CAA	H	92-94	L	0%
2-10	College of Charleston (57.0)	CAA	A	89-67	L	0%
2-15	Northeastern (55.0)	CAA	A	75-69	L	0%
2-17	Hofstra (121.0)	CAA	A	88-76	L	0%
2-22	Delaware (233.0)	CAA	H	85-83	W	100%
2-24	UNC Wilmington (245.0)	CAA	H	82-83	L	0%
3-3	James Madison (272.0)	CAA	N	70-62	W	100%
3-4	College of Charleston (57.0)	CAA	N	66-59	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Drexel's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Drexel's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Drexel.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Drexel	CAA	26.48	26.48	35.82	35.82	-7.51	-7.51
College of Charleston	CAA	5.66	5.66	78.57	78.57	3.24	3.24
James Madison	CAA	5.56	5.56	28.57	28.57	-2.38	-2.38
Northeastern	CAA	4.23	4.23	70.00	70.00	1.69	1.69
William & Mary	CAA	4.17	4.17	59.26	59.26	0.77	0.77
Towson	CAA	4.15	4.15	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Delaware	CAA	4.15	4.15	37.93	37.93	-1.00	-1.00
UNC Wilmington	CAA	4.15	4.15	25.00	25.00	-2.07	-2.07
Hofstra	CAA	4.12	4.12	57.14	57.14	0.59	0.59
Elon	CAA	4.10	4.10	39.29	39.29	-0.88	-0.88
Rider	MAAC	1.69	1.69	73.33	73.33	0.79	0.79
Loyola MD	Pat	1.67	1.67	24.14	24.14	-0.86	-0.86
Lafayette	Pat	1.67	1.67	31.03	31.03	-0.63	-0.63
La Salle	A10	1.67	1.67	41.94	41.94	-0.27	-0.27
Quinnipiac	MAAC	1.64	1.64	37.50	37.50	-0.41	-0.41
Temple	Amer	1.63	1.63	51.61	51.61	0.05	0.05
Houston	Amer	1.61	1.61	81.25	81.25	1.01	1.01
NJIT	ASun	1.59	1.59	40.74	40.74	-0.29	-0.29
Robert Morris	NEC	1.59	1.59	46.88	46.88	-0.10	-0.10
Mercer	SC	1.59	1.59	51.72	51.72	0.05	0.05
Bowling Green	MAC	1.56	1.56	44.83	44.83	-0.16	-0.16
Drake	MVC	1.56	1.56	46.67	46.67	-0.10	-0.10
Siena	MAAC	0.25	0.25	25.00	25.00	-0.12	-0.12
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.23	0.23	78.12	78.12	0.13	0.13
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.23	0.23	43.75	43.75	-0.03	-0.03
Wichita St.	Amer	0.22	0.22	78.12	78.12	0.12	0.12
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.21	0.21	77.42	77.42	0.11	0.11
Boston University	Pat	0.21	0.21	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Furman	SC	0.21	0.21	67.74	67.74	0.07	0.07
Bucknell	Pat	0.20	0.20	73.53	73.53	0.10	0.10
Manhattan	MAAC	0.20	0.20	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.20	0.20	65.62	65.62	0.06	0.06
Army	Pat	0.18	0.18	41.38	41.38	-0.03	-0.03
George Mason	A10	0.18	0.18	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
UCF	Amer	0.18	0.18	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Fairfield	MAAC	0.17	0.17	51.52	51.52	0.01	0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.16	0.16	58.06	58.06	0.03	0.03
Navy	Pat	0.15	0.15	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Buffalo	MAC	0.15	0.15	75.76	75.76	0.08	0.08
Charlotte	CUSA	0.15	0.15	17.86	17.86	-0.10	-0.10
Richmond	A10	0.15	0.15	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.13	0.13	28.57	28.57	-0.06	-0.06
American	Pat	0.13	0.13	20.00	20.00	-0.08	-0.08
High Point	BSth	0.13	0.13	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Holy Cross	Pat	0.13	0.13	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
FIU	CUSA	0.13	0.13	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Radford	BSth	0.13	0.13	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
The Citadel	SC	0.13	0.13	27.59	27.59	-0.06	-0.06
Western Carolina	SC	0.13	0.13	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Villanova	BE	0.13	0.13	88.24	88.24	0.10	0.10
Penn	Ivy	0.13	0.13	74.19	74.19	0.06	0.06
Ohio St.	B10	0.13	0.13	75.00	75.00	0.06	0.06
Monmouth	MAAC	0.13	0.13	35.48	35.48	-0.04	-0.04
Bradley	MVC	0.13	0.13	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Cornell	Ivy	0.13	0.13	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.12	0.12	78.12	78.12	0.07	0.07
Wagner	NEC	0.12	0.12	70.00	70.00	0.05	0.05
East Carolina	Amer	0.12	0.12	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
South Florida	Amer	0.12	0.12	31.25	31.25	-0.05	-0.05
Tulane	Amer	0.12	0.12	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	Amer	0.12	0.12	88.24	88.24	0.09	0.09
Hampton	MEAC	0.10	0.10	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Lehigh	Pat	0.10	0.10	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.10	0.10	84.38	84.38	0.07	0.07
Valparaiso	MVC	0.10	0.10	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.10	0.10	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.10	0.10	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Memphis	Amer	0.10	0.10	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Marist	MAAC	0.10	0.10	19.35	19.35	-0.06	-0.06
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.10	0.10	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.10	0.10	39.39	39.39	-0.02	-0.02
North Florida	ASun	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
USC Upstate	ASun	0.08	0.08	10.71	10.71	-0.06	-0.06
Campbell	BSth	0.08	0.08	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Wofford	SC	0.08	0.08	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Clemson	ACC	0.08	0.08	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Davidson	A10	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Dayton	A10	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
LSU	SEC	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Appalachian St.	SB	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Cal Poly	BW	0.08	0.08	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Florida	SEC	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.08	0.08	68.97	68.97	0.03	0.03
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.08	0.08	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
UTSA	CUSA	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.08	0.08	60.71	60.71	0.02	0.02
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.08	0.08	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Colorado	P12	0.07	0.07	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
George Washington	A10	0.07	0.07	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.07	0.07	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Niagara	MAAC	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.07	0.07	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Connecticut	Amer	0.07	0.07	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Louis	A10	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Tulsa	Amer	0.07	0.07	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Vermont	AE	0.07	0.07	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
SMU	Amer	0.07	0.07	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.06	0.06	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Stetson	ASun	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
UMass Lowell	AE	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
TCU	B12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia Southern	SB	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Oakland	Horz	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Samford	SC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Stony Brook	AE	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
UMBC	AE	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
VMI	SC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Brown	Ivy	0.05	0.05	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.05	0.05	73.33	73.33	0.02	0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	6.67	6.67	-0.04	-0.04
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Longwood	BSth	0.05	0.05	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Notre Dame	ACC	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.05	0.05	23.08	23.08	-0.03	-0.03
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Hartford	AE	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Providence	BE	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Harvard	Ivy	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Utah St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Bryant	NEC	0.05	0.05	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Rutgers	B10	0.03	0.03	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.03	0.03	44.44	44.44	-0.00	-0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Binghamton	AE	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	24.24	24.24	-0.01	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Green Bay	Horz	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
San Jose St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	10.34	10.34	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Chicago St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	3.33	3.33	-0.02	-0.02
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
UC Irvine	BW	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Wyoming	MWC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Xavier	BE	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.02	0.02	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.02	0.02	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
VCU	A10	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.02	0.02	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas	SEC	0.02	0.02	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.02	0.02	26.92	26.92	-0.01	-0.01
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.02	0.02	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
Little Rock	SB	0.02	0.02	20.00	20.00	-0.01	-0.01
Maine	AE	0.02	0.02	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.02	0.02	32.00	32.00	-0.01	-0.01
New Orleans	Slnd	0.02	0.02	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.02	0.02	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.02	0.02	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.02	0.02	20.00	20.00	-0.01	-0.01