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Through games of Nov 26, 2014.


Drexel

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:223.8
Current RPI:188
Expected SOS:127
Current SOS:72
Current Record:1-4
Expected Record:10-18
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-3
Current OOC Record:1-4
Expected OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC RPI:250
Expected OOC SOS:64



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-857.00.01%
19-975.00.01%
18-1089.50.06%
17-11105.40.26%
16-12121.00.62%
15-13138.21.82%
14-14154.84.44%
13-15173.58.52%
12-16193.213.28%
11-17211.116.95%
10-18230.517.64%
9-19248.415.62%
8-20266.711.10%
7-21282.45.55%
6-22296.32.78%
5-23309.21.05%
4-24315.80.26%
3-25340.00.01%
2-26335.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Drexel.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Colorado (82.5)P12A65-48L0%0.0
11-17Saint Joseph's (187.2)A10H49-52L0%0.0
11-20Miami FL (10.6)ACCN66-46L0%0.0
11-21USC (227.7)P12N70-72L0%0.0
11-23Cornell (244.8)IvyN59-61W100%0.0
11-30Southern Miss (156.5)CUSAH0-051%0.2
12-13La Salle (98.1)A10H0-038%-3.8
12-16Buffalo (70.3)MACA0-017%-11.6
12-20Penn St. (130.4)B10N0-029%-6.8
12-28Iona (44.8)MAACH0-021%-9.8
1-3Elon (242.1)CAAH0-066%4.9
1-5William & Mary (115.3)CAAH0-045%-1.5
1-8Towson (156.3)CAAA0-030%-6.4
1-10UNC Wilmington (171.7)CAAA0-034%-5.0
1-14James Madison (223.0)CAAH0-064%4.3
1-17Delaware (312.4)CAAA0-062%3.6
1-21Hofstra (100.2)CAAA0-017%-11.3
1-24College of Charleston (144.3)CAAH0-045%-1.6
1-28Northeastern (83.8)CAAH0-036%-4.5
1-31UNC Wilmington (171.7)CAAH0-057%2.2
2-5Elon (242.1)CAAA0-042%-2.3
2-7College of Charleston (144.3)CAAA0-023%-8.8
2-11Towson (156.3)CAAH0-053%0.8
2-14Hofstra (100.2)CAAH0-037%-4.1
2-18James Madison (223.0)CAAA0-041%-2.9
2-21Northeastern (83.8)CAAA0-017%-11.6
2-25Delaware (312.4)CAAH0-082%10.8
2-28William & Mary (115.3)CAAA0-024%-8.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Drexel's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Drexel's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Drexel.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DrexelCAA29.6326.3920.0034.42-17.78-8.22
HofstraCAA0.004.5760.0067.890.001.64
College of CharlestonCAA0.004.5740.0052.58-0.000.24
TowsonCAA0.004.5780.0057.940.000.73
James MadisonCAA0.004.5480.0046.880.00-0.28
NortheasternCAA0.004.5480.0066.190.001.47
DelawareCAA0.004.530.0019.10-0.00-2.80
ElonCAA0.004.5340.0039.06-0.00-0.99
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.004.5366.6746.580.00-0.31
William & MaryCAA0.004.5375.0055.360.000.48
La SalleA100.001.96100.0056.420.000.25
USCP1210.001.8840.0026.31-2.00-0.89
Penn St.B101.551.8583.3347.641.03-0.09
ColoradoP1210.001.8566.6758.623.330.32
Saint Joseph'sA1010.001.8550.0037.400.00-0.46
CornellIvy10.001.8450.0042.400.00-0.28
Miami FLACC10.001.84100.0079.1310.001.07
BuffaloMAC0.001.8275.0063.520.000.49
IonaMAAC0.001.7980.0079.380.001.05
Southern MissCUSA0.001.7966.6750.940.000.03
RichmondA100.000.2450.0064.050.000.07
CharlotteCUSA1.670.2460.0067.390.330.08
MassachusettsA100.000.2183.3366.600.000.07
DavidsonA100.000.1866.6761.870.000.04
St. BonaventureA100.000.1875.0052.090.000.01
TempleAmer0.000.1860.0050.320.000.00
CampbellBSth0.000.180.0034.56-0.00-0.06
George MasonA100.710.1820.0021.73-0.43-0.10
Old DominionCUSA0.000.1680.0074.520.000.08
StanfordP120.000.1580.0070.970.000.06
Rhode IslandA100.000.15100.0060.350.000.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC1.000.1533.3339.40-0.33-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.1516.6739.87-0.00-0.03
MaristMAAC0.000.1520.0033.15-0.00-0.05
FordhamA100.000.150.0026.01-0.00-0.07
AkronMAC1.670.1560.0066.190.330.05
HowardMEAC0.830.1325.0045.71-0.42-0.01
LibertyBSth0.000.1320.0029.02-0.00-0.05
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.130.0028.63-0.00-0.05
High PointBSth0.000.1275.0055.980.000.01
OhioMAC0.000.1266.6751.430.000.00
UCLAP120.000.1280.0063.410.000.03
UtahP120.000.1275.0073.450.000.06
East CarolinaAmer0.000.1225.0035.38-0.00-0.04
LouisvilleACC0.000.12100.0079.150.000.07
MinnesotaB100.000.1250.0055.290.000.01
PennIvy0.000.120.0023.29-0.00-0.06
VillanovaBE0.000.12100.0077.100.000.07
Miami OHMAC0.000.1240.0026.51-0.00-0.06
Cal PolyBW0.000.1233.3335.63-0.00-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.000.1275.0064.980.000.04
HarvardIvy0.000.1266.6773.440.000.06
CanisiusMAAC0.710.1250.0052.730.000.01
ColgatePat0.710.1220.0039.02-0.43-0.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.1220.0041.72-0.00-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.120.0030.79-0.00-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.120.0027.64-0.00-0.05
MonmouthMAAC0.000.1250.0052.150.000.01
NavyPat0.000.1220.0029.93-0.00-0.05
Western MichiganMAC0.000.1266.6753.510.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.12100.0073.600.000.05
Florida St.ACC0.000.1240.0038.71-0.00-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.000.1225.0048.57-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.1225.0048.11-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.000.12100.0074.750.000.06
FairfieldMAAC0.000.1240.0032.41-0.00-0.04
RiceCUSA0.000.1033.3330.44-0.00-0.04
FloridaSEC0.830.0950.0064.920.000.03
North CarolinaACC0.000.0975.0067.420.000.03
WoffordSC0.000.0980.0077.430.000.05
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.090.0038.94-0.00-0.02
ArizonaP120.000.09100.0075.690.000.05
Arizona St.P120.000.0960.0053.110.000.01
WashingtonP120.000.09100.0055.210.000.01
Washington St.P120.000.0933.3329.54-0.00-0.04
AlabamaSEC0.000.0980.0058.430.000.02
CaliforniaP120.000.0980.0070.250.000.04
OregonP120.000.0960.0063.060.000.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0950.0042.760.00-0.01
ArmyPat0.000.09100.0069.410.000.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0920.0038.27-0.00-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0920.0043.55-0.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.0960.0055.990.000.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.090.0036.14-0.00-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0925.0039.67-0.00-0.02
DukeACC0.000.09100.0083.600.000.06
NorthwesternB100.000.0983.3339.590.00-0.02
DaytonA100.000.0975.0071.150.000.04
RadfordBSth0.000.0925.0046.64-0.00-0.01
SienaMAAC0.000.0933.3361.50-0.000.02
DuquesneA100.000.09100.0054.340.000.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0975.0069.280.000.03
Ball St.MAC0.000.0933.3346.13-0.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0940.0038.08-0.00-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC1.000.090.0049.14-1.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0933.3330.18-0.00-0.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0950.0055.700.000.01
WisconsinB100.000.09100.0086.460.000.06
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.09100.0065.430.000.03
Virginia TechACC0.000.0960.0036.000.00-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0780.0071.830.000.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0766.6749.610.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.000.0725.0040.45-0.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.07100.0072.490.000.03
UTSACUSA0.000.0733.3329.25-0.00-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0725.0026.31-0.00-0.03
VMISC0.000.0625.0036.44-0.00-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0625.0041.79-0.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0650.0044.930.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0675.0038.820.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0039.18-0.00-0.01
BrownIvy0.000.0620.0038.01-0.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0620.0038.42-0.00-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0633.3330.11-0.00-0.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0640.0036.41-0.00-0.02
North FloridaASun0.000.0640.0052.52-0.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0625.0037.52-0.00-0.02
YaleIvy0.000.0680.0070.280.000.02
BinghamtonAE0.000.060.0022.97-0.00-0.03
Loyola MDPat0.710.0640.0031.26-0.14-0.02
SyracuseACC0.000.0680.0068.140.000.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0620.0031.47-0.00-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.06100.0061.670.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0054.940.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.06100.0061.350.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0675.0066.110.000.02
Saint LouisA100.000.0675.0046.370.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.000.060.0027.57-0.00-0.03
VCUA100.000.0680.0073.080.000.03
VermontAE1.000.0650.0065.840.000.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0650.0027.510.00-0.03
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0625.0053.31-0.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0675.0069.010.000.02
DetroitHorz0.000.0660.0058.400.000.01
FurmanSC0.000.0625.0027.83-0.00-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0640.0057.50-0.000.01
IllinoisB100.000.06100.0065.110.000.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.060.0025.58-0.00-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.000.0620.0022.02-0.00-0.03
MarylandB100.000.06100.0071.860.000.03
RiderMAAC0.000.0650.0046.840.00-0.00
RutgersB100.000.0650.0024.520.00-0.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0625.0034.11-0.00-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.06100.0071.830.000.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0633.3339.69-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0035.63-0.00-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0675.0055.330.000.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0650.0065.760.000.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0675.0068.260.000.02
The CitadelSC0.000.060.0028.78-0.00-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0675.0055.290.000.01
WagnerNEC0.000.060.0045.08-0.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0666.6751.600.000.00
West VirginiaB120.000.06100.0069.720.000.02
FIUCUSA0.000.0350.0042.970.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0360.0067.690.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0350.0047.310.00-0.00
TroySB0.000.030.0043.61-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC1.250.0333.3345.47-0.42-0.00
AuburnSEC1.250.0360.0037.550.25-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.03100.0068.200.000.01
DePaulBE0.000.0366.6726.420.00-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0360.0056.970.000.00
LipscombASun0.000.030.0045.69-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.030.0052.30-0.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0350.0058.990.000.01
WyomingMWC1.250.03100.0069.581.250.01
South CarolinaSEC0.710.0350.0051.520.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.000.0360.0042.120.00-0.00
AmericanPat0.000.0366.6759.500.000.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.830.0325.0033.19-0.42-0.01
DenverSum0.000.0350.0060.810.000.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0052.420.000.00
GonzagaWCC1.000.03100.0088.521.000.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0340.0046.02-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0089.070.000.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0350.0025.330.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0360.0055.640.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0350.0047.220.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.830.03100.0056.970.830.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0333.3354.73-0.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.030.0051.96-0.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.830.0350.0036.120.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0340.0060.24-0.000.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0360.0051.520.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.0360.0055.090.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.03100.0079.750.000.02
BucknellPat0.000.0333.3335.82-0.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0360.0050.770.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0325.0049.12-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.03100.0057.480.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0380.0071.650.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.03100.0049.260.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.000.0375.0077.520.000.02
IndianaB100.000.0380.0057.110.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0375.0043.690.00-0.00
IowaB100.000.0366.6765.830.000.01
MichiganB100.000.0375.0066.610.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0375.0072.040.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0375.0053.300.000.00
Notre DameACC0.000.0383.3369.220.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0360.0057.880.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.03100.0066.690.000.01
PurdueB100.000.0383.3368.600.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0340.0033.60-0.00-0.01