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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Drexel

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:242.0
Current RPI:242
Expected SOS:175
Current SOS:175
Current Record:12-20
Expected Record:12-20
Current Conf Record:7-13
Expected Conf Record:7-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-7
Current OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:230
Expected OOC SOS:218



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-20242.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Drexel.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Bowling Green (193.0)MACH69-78L0%0.0
11-17Houston (18.0)AmerN80-84W100%0.0
11-18Mercer (174.0)SCN59-78L0%0.0
11-19Drake (166.0)MVCN90-88L0%0.0
11-25NJIT (269.0)ASunA65-53L0%0.0
11-29Lafayette (311.0)PatH68-67W100%0.0
12-2Rider (69.0)MAACH89-77W100%0.0
12-7La Salle (202.0)A10A70-72W100%0.0
12-10Robert Morris (196.0)NECA74-60L0%0.0
12-16Temple (52.0)AmerA63-60L0%0.0
12-18Quinnipiac (277.0)MAACH72-71W100%0.0
12-21Loyola MD (322.0)PatA66-62L0%0.0
12-30Elon (205.0)CAAA90-75L0%0.0
1-2UNC Wilmington (245.0)CAAA107-87L0%0.0
1-5College of Charleston (57.0)CAAH87-82W100%0.0
1-7William & Mary (94.0)CAAH63-85L0%0.0
1-11Delaware (233.0)CAAA72-66L0%0.0
1-13Hofstra (121.0)CAAH86-91L0%0.0
1-18Towson (153.0)CAAA90-68L0%0.0
1-20James Madison (272.0)CAAA75-73L0%0.0
1-25Elon (205.0)CAAH83-79W100%0.0
1-27Northeastern (55.0)CAAH68-67W100%0.0
2-1James Madison (272.0)CAAH76-74W100%0.0
2-3William & Mary (94.0)CAAA79-91W100%0.0
2-8Towson (153.0)CAAH92-94L0%0.0
2-10College of Charleston (57.0)CAAA89-67L0%0.0
2-15Northeastern (55.0)CAAA75-69L0%0.0
2-17Hofstra (121.0)CAAA88-76L0%0.0
2-22Delaware (233.0)CAAH85-83W100%0.0
2-24UNC Wilmington (245.0)CAAH82-83L0%0.0
3-3James Madison (272.0)CAAN70-62W100%0.0
3-4College of Charleston (57.0)CAAN66-59L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Drexel's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Drexel's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Drexel.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DrexelCAA26.4826.4835.8235.82-7.51-7.51
College of CharlestonCAA5.665.6678.5778.573.243.24
James MadisonCAA5.565.5628.5728.57-2.38-2.38
NortheasternCAA4.234.2370.0070.001.691.69
William & MaryCAA4.174.1759.2659.260.770.77
TowsonCAA4.154.1550.0050.000.000.00
DelawareCAA4.154.1537.9337.93-1.00-1.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA4.154.1525.0025.00-2.07-2.07
HofstraCAA4.124.1257.1457.140.590.59
ElonCAA4.104.1039.2939.29-0.88-0.88
RiderMAAC1.691.6973.3373.330.790.79
Loyola MDPat1.671.6724.1424.14-0.86-0.86
LafayettePat1.671.6731.0331.03-0.63-0.63
La SalleA101.671.6741.9441.94-0.27-0.27
QuinnipiacMAAC1.641.6437.5037.50-0.41-0.41
TempleAmer1.631.6351.6151.610.050.05
HoustonAmer1.611.6181.2581.251.011.01
NJITASun1.591.5940.7440.74-0.29-0.29
Robert MorrisNEC1.591.5946.8846.88-0.10-0.10
MercerSC1.591.5951.7251.720.050.05
Bowling GreenMAC1.561.5644.8344.83-0.16-0.16
DrakeMVC1.561.5646.6746.67-0.10-0.10
SienaMAAC0.250.2525.0025.00-0.12-0.12
Old DominionCUSA0.230.2378.1278.120.130.13
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.230.2343.7543.75-0.03-0.03
Wichita St.Amer0.220.2278.1278.120.120.12
UNC GreensboroSC0.210.2177.4277.420.110.11
Boston UniversityPat0.210.2146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.210.2167.7467.740.070.07
BucknellPat0.200.2073.5373.530.100.10
ManhattanMAAC0.200.2045.1645.16-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.200.2065.6265.620.060.06
ArmyPat0.180.1841.3841.38-0.03-0.03
George MasonA100.180.1848.4848.48-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.180.1859.3859.380.030.03
FairfieldMAAC0.170.1751.5251.520.010.01
ColgatePat0.160.1658.0658.060.030.03
NavyPat0.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
BuffaloMAC0.150.1575.7675.760.080.08
CharlotteCUSA0.150.1517.8617.86-0.10-0.10
RichmondA100.150.1537.5037.50-0.04-0.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.130.1328.5728.57-0.06-0.06
AmericanPat0.130.1320.0020.00-0.08-0.08
High PointBSth0.130.1340.7440.74-0.02-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
FIUCUSA0.130.1337.9337.93-0.03-0.03
RadfordBSth0.130.1362.5062.500.030.03
The CitadelSC0.130.1327.5927.59-0.06-0.06
Western CarolinaSC0.130.1336.6736.67-0.03-0.03
VillanovaBE0.130.1388.2488.240.100.10
PennIvy0.130.1374.1974.190.060.06
Ohio St.B100.130.1375.0075.000.060.06
MonmouthMAAC0.130.1335.4835.48-0.04-0.04
BradleyMVC0.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
CornellIvy0.130.1340.7440.74-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.120.1278.1278.120.070.07
WagnerNEC0.120.1270.0070.000.050.05
East CarolinaAmer0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
South FloridaAmer0.120.1231.2531.25-0.05-0.05
TulaneAmer0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.120.1288.2488.240.090.09
HamptonMEAC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
LehighPat0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.100.1084.3884.380.070.07
ValparaisoMVC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.100.1061.7661.760.020.02
MaristMAAC0.100.1019.3519.35-0.06-0.06
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
MassachusettsA100.100.1039.3939.39-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.080.0810.7110.71-0.06-0.06
CampbellBSth0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
AuburnSEC0.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
ClemsonACC0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
DavidsonA100.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
DaytonA100.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
LSUSEC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Coastal CarolinaSB0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
UTSACUSA0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
ColoradoP120.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
George WashingtonA100.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
TulsaAmer0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
VermontAE0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
SMUAmer0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
StetsonASun0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
AkronMAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
OhioMAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
SamfordSC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
VMISC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
BrownIvy0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
NorthwesternB100.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.056.676.67-0.04-0.04
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
YaleIvy0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
FordhamA100.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
HarvardIvy0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
StanfordP120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
BryantNEC0.050.059.689.68-0.04-0.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
RutgersB100.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0324.2424.24-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Green BayHorz0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.030.033.333.33-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
UC IrvineBW0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
XavierBE0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
Miami FLACC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
VCUA100.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
WisconsinB100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0226.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.020.0212.5012.50-0.02-0.02
Little RockSB0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0232.0032.00-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01