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Through games of Feb 6, 2016.


Drexel

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:265.5
Current RPI:237
Expected SOS:88
Current SOS:43
Current Record:3-19
Expected Record:5-23
Current Conf Record:1-11
Expected Conf Record:3-15
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-2
Current OOC Record:2-8
Expected OOC Record:2-8
Expected OOC RPI:255
Expected OOC SOS:92



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
9-19195.70.03%
8-20215.60.90%
7-21233.48.06%
6-22251.625.09%
5-23268.136.43%
4-24282.523.90%
3-25293.85.58%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Drexel.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Saint Joseph's (32.4)A10A82-81L0%0.0
11-18High Point (196.9)BSthH66-75L0%0.0
11-21Monmouth (41.7)MAACH74-82L0%0.0
11-26UNC Asheville (135.1)BSthN85-66L0%0.0
11-28San Diego (289.0)WCCN59-62L0%0.0
12-5La Salle (258.0)A10A53-66W100%0.0
12-15South Carolina (46.6)SECA79-54L0%0.0
12-19Penn St. (131.5)B10H57-63L0%0.0
12-22Penn (276.2)IvyH53-52W100%0.0
12-28Iona (130.5)MAACA77-70L0%0.0
12-31UNC Wilmington (60.8)CAAA75-63L0%0.0
1-2Elon (137.9)CAAA83-78L0%0.0
1-7William & Mary (40.4)CAAH63-72L0%0.0
1-9College of Charleston (95.0)CAAH61-54W100%0.0
1-14Hofstra (71.2)CAAA69-61L0%0.0
1-16Towson (153.8)CAAA69-50L0%0.0
1-21James Madison (86.9)CAAA68-45L0%0.0
1-24UNC Wilmington (60.8)CAAH71-77L0%0.0
1-28Towson (153.8)CAAH70-77L0%0.0
1-30Hofstra (71.2)CAAH64-70L0%0.0
2-4James Madison (86.9)CAAH56-78L0%0.0
2-6College of Charleston (95.0)CAAA60-38L0%0.0
2-11Delaware (275.4)CAAA0-043%-1.9
2-13Northeastern (148.7)CAAA0-016%-11.1
2-18Elon (137.9)CAAH0-041%-2.4
2-20William & Mary (40.4)CAAA0-07%-16.0
2-25Delaware (275.4)CAAH0-067%4.7
2-27Northeastern (148.7)CAAH0-034%-4.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Drexel's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Drexel's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Drexel.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DrexelCAA26.6526.4312.2616.45-20.12-17.74
HofstraCAA5.224.6365.0062.721.561.18
ElonCAA3.094.6050.0048.280.00-0.16
TowsonCAA5.224.6061.9056.771.240.62
DelawareCAA0.934.6021.7421.70-0.52-2.60
William & MaryCAA2.994.6070.0067.711.201.63
James MadisonCAA5.114.5866.6766.251.701.49
NortheasternCAA0.834.5845.8344.62-0.07-0.49
College of CharlestonCAA5.214.5765.0061.771.561.07
UNC WilmingtonCAA5.054.5673.6871.262.391.94
La SalleA102.592.0021.0521.23-1.50-1.15
IonaMAAC2.321.9057.1458.220.330.31
High PointBSth2.381.8852.6355.770.130.22
Saint Joseph'sA102.391.8881.8278.161.521.06
UNC AshevilleBSth2.381.8863.6464.900.650.56
MonmouthMAAC2.321.8578.2680.141.311.11
South CarolinaSEC2.381.8585.7178.431.701.05
PennIvy2.381.8541.1839.11-0.42-0.40
Penn St.B102.271.7947.8344.96-0.10-0.18
San DiegoWCC2.271.7928.5726.52-0.97-0.84
RadfordBSth0.360.2950.0051.290.000.01
CampbellBSth0.370.2328.5729.64-0.16-0.09
Western MichiganMAC0.260.2233.3335.50-0.09-0.06
George MasonA100.310.2134.7834.21-0.09-0.07
CanisiusMAAC0.300.2141.6743.87-0.05-0.03
LibertyBSth0.220.2034.7836.50-0.07-0.05
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.210.2060.0060.080.040.04
East CarolinaAmer0.310.1945.4542.00-0.03-0.03
DaytonA100.220.1986.3682.350.160.12
MaristMAAC0.150.1819.0521.34-0.09-0.10
SienaMAAC0.200.1866.6767.270.070.06
North Carolina St.ACC0.110.1650.0049.100.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.260.1628.5731.37-0.11-0.06
ColumbiaIvy0.050.1666.6765.220.020.05
TempleAmer0.170.1663.6459.810.050.03
VillanovaBE0.170.1686.9686.370.130.11
Miami FLACC0.160.1680.9575.490.100.08
Rhode IslandA100.260.1556.5256.620.030.02
RiderMAAC0.160.1541.6743.53-0.03-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.150.1570.0069.100.060.06
NiagaraMAAC0.150.1525.0025.47-0.07-0.07
Charleston SouthernBSth0.160.1323.8126.56-0.08-0.06
LongwoodBSth0.160.1322.7324.97-0.08-0.07
WinthropBSth0.110.1365.0063.440.030.04
PresbyterianBSth0.110.1325.0026.87-0.05-0.06
GeorgetownBE0.200.1354.1752.340.020.01
HarvardIvy0.060.1335.0038.53-0.02-0.03
DavidsonA100.100.1260.0057.950.020.02
BradleyMVC0.100.1212.5012.85-0.07-0.09
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.100.1250.0051.910.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.200.1234.7837.06-0.06-0.03
FordhamA100.160.1255.0052.290.020.01
MassachusettsA100.110.1240.9139.32-0.02-0.03
FIUCUSA0.150.1240.9145.30-0.03-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.100.1222.7327.18-0.06-0.06
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.150.1240.0045.51-0.03-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.100.1280.9582.700.060.08
RichmondA100.210.1254.5554.550.020.01
FairfieldMAAC0.200.1252.1753.070.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.100.1245.0043.21-0.01-0.02
MichiganB100.140.1269.5766.200.060.04
QuinnipiacMAAC0.150.1238.1037.49-0.03-0.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.150.1238.1041.91-0.04-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.200.1250.0051.170.000.00
Michigan St.B100.050.1283.3383.010.030.08
Gardner WebbBSth0.160.1045.4547.57-0.01-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.160.1059.0959.440.030.02
NavyPat0.170.1062.5062.440.040.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.160.1020.0026.76-0.09-0.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.110.1028.5731.90-0.05-0.03
CornellIvy0.050.0942.1140.20-0.01-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.100.0956.5262.780.010.02
PrincetonIvy0.110.0972.2274.710.050.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.099.5213.53-0.05-0.07
GeorgiaSEC0.110.0961.9056.690.030.01
LSUSEC0.100.0965.2260.280.030.02
TennesseeSEC0.100.0947.8346.87-0.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.150.0965.2259.020.050.02
South FloridaAmer0.050.0920.8320.12-0.03-0.05
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0930.4326.49-0.02-0.04
BuffaloMAC0.050.0959.0958.900.010.02
DuquesneA100.100.0963.6456.370.030.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0978.2674.360.030.04
USCP120.150.0978.2673.060.080.04
LipscombASun0.050.0925.0029.27-0.03-0.04
Oral RobertsSum0.150.0939.1341.12-0.03-0.02
BrownIvy0.060.0731.5831.01-0.02-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0750.0051.170.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.060.0731.5831.77-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.110.0752.0050.260.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.050.0757.1459.450.010.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0738.1040.73-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.110.0728.5732.71-0.05-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.110.0733.3334.94-0.04-0.02
VirginiaACC0.050.0782.6178.050.040.04
YaleIvy0.060.0773.6874.620.030.03
LafayettePat0.120.0622.7324.04-0.07-0.03
BYUWCC0.000.0666.6769.500.000.02
GonzagaWCC0.050.0678.2676.870.030.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.100.0643.4842.63-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.100.0639.1338.57-0.02-0.01
PacificWCC0.100.0625.0028.89-0.05-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.100.0656.5257.280.010.01
PortlandWCC0.050.0640.0038.50-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.100.0685.7185.390.070.05
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0654.5550.110.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0630.4331.18-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.100.0650.0053.300.000.00
The CitadelSC0.100.0633.3331.30-0.03-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.100.0678.2678.040.060.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0630.0035.78-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.100.0626.0929.20-0.05-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0634.7840.92-0.02-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.0615.0022.35-0.07-0.03
DukeACC0.050.0673.9170.060.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.100.0669.5764.880.040.02
Indiana St.MVC0.100.0652.1751.940.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0621.7423.40-0.03-0.03
Loyola MDPat0.100.0634.7837.18-0.03-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.100.0647.8344.37-0.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0666.6762.570.020.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0675.0071.510.020.03
UMBCAE0.100.0624.0026.41-0.05-0.03
Saint LouisA100.000.0638.1033.40-0.00-0.02
VCUA100.110.0673.9173.910.050.03
TulsaAmer0.100.0663.6459.960.030.01
AlabamaSEC0.100.0659.0953.030.020.00
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0654.1755.580.000.01
DetroitHorz0.000.0647.6245.86-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0631.8230.48-0.00-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0640.9140.64-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0634.7830.36-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.0647.8350.14-0.000.00
VermontAE0.000.0654.1757.520.000.01
West VirginiaB120.100.0682.6179.550.060.04
DePaulBE0.100.0634.7834.45-0.03-0.02
FloridaSEC0.050.0665.2266.080.020.02
IowaB100.050.0681.8280.120.030.03
NebraskaB100.000.0654.1751.820.000.00
NorthwesternB100.050.0666.6763.430.020.02
RutgersB100.050.0621.7420.35-0.03-0.03
Texas TechB120.060.0359.0953.130.010.00
BinghamtonAE0.060.0321.7424.68-0.04-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.060.0313.0413.54-0.05-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0328.0030.73-0.03-0.01
WashingtonP120.060.0365.2261.080.020.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0335.0032.28-0.02-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0328.5728.55-0.02-0.01
DenverSum0.050.0354.1751.800.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0347.6252.06-0.000.00
FurmanSC0.050.0352.1753.310.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0371.4369.410.020.01
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0372.7372.030.020.01
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0325.0022.77-0.03-0.02
UC DavisBW0.050.0340.0036.78-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.050.0381.8280.040.030.02
Oregon St.P120.050.0361.9056.430.010.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0345.4554.10-0.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0342.8650.39-0.010.00
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0381.8283.030.030.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.0352.1755.930.000.00
AuburnSEC0.050.0340.9136.61-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0360.8760.210.010.01
KentuckySEC0.000.0373.9171.570.000.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0360.8760.800.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0340.9149.26-0.01-0.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0326.0923.73-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0356.5260.000.010.01
ArmyPat0.050.0352.1753.360.000.00
BucknellPat0.050.0354.5558.150.000.00
ColoradoP120.050.0369.5765.300.020.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0336.8441.46-0.01-0.00
IllinoisB100.000.0347.8344.55-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0354.1750.940.000.00
IndianaB100.050.0379.1774.030.030.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0363.6459.380.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0342.8646.34-0.01-0.00
MarylandB100.050.0387.5083.690.040.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0330.4335.11-0.02-0.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0326.0927.82-0.02-0.01
Notre DameACC0.050.0369.5765.850.020.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0358.3354.170.010.00
PurdueB100.050.0379.1776.550.030.02
UCLAP120.050.0356.5253.250.010.00
Virginia TechACC0.050.0354.1749.290.00-0.00
VMISC0.050.0315.7917.42-0.03-0.02
WagnerNEC0.050.0363.6465.020.010.01
WisconsinB100.050.0360.8755.860.010.00