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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Drexel

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:308.0
Current RPI:308
Expected SOS:242
Current SOS:242
Current Record:8-23
Expected Record:8-23
Current Conf Record:3-16
Expected Conf Record:3-16
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-6
Current OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:243
Expected OOC SOS:327



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-23308.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Drexel.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Monmouth (49.0)MAACA78-65L0%0.0
11-13Rutgers (177.0)B10A87-66L0%0.0
11-18Hartford (327.0)AEH87-73W100%0.0
11-20North Texas (339.0)CUSAA62-83W100%0.0
11-23Niagara (275.0)MAACA93-74L0%0.0
11-27La Salle (133.0)A10H78-89L0%0.0
11-30Lafayette (321.0)PatA70-74W100%0.0
12-3High Point (236.0)BSthA72-78W100%0.0
12-11Saint Joseph's (197.0)A10H71-72L0%0.0
12-16Rider (198.0)MAACA90-82L0%0.0
12-21Quinnipiac (272.0)MAACA74-91W100%0.0
12-28Penn (203.0)IvyA75-67L0%0.0
12-31James Madison (255.0)CAAA78-67L0%0.0
1-2Northeastern (136.0)CAAH70-75L0%0.0
1-5UNC Wilmington (27.0)CAAH72-90L0%0.0
1-12Northeastern (136.0)CAAA92-75L0%0.0
1-14Delaware (235.0)CAAH76-60W100%0.0
1-19Elon (161.0)CAAA93-73L0%0.0
1-21UNC Wilmington (27.0)CAAA87-74L0%0.0
1-26Hofstra (196.0)CAAH81-80W100%0.0
1-28College of Charleston (64.0)CAAH76-90L0%0.0
1-30William & Mary (110.0)CAAA108-85L0%0.0
2-2Towson (88.0)CAAA104-103L0%0.0
2-4Hofstra (196.0)CAAA79-77L0%0.0
2-9William & Mary (110.0)CAAH79-61W100%0.0
2-11Towson (88.0)CAAH65-69L0%0.0
2-16Delaware (235.0)CAAA68-67L0%0.0
2-18Elon (161.0)CAAH56-65L0%0.0
2-23James Madison (255.0)CAAH64-70L0%0.0
2-25College of Charleston (64.0)CAAA80-67L0%0.0
3-3James Madison (255.0)CAAN80-70L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Drexel's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Drexel's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Drexel.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DrexelCAA26.3726.3727.9727.97-11.62-11.62
James MadisonCAA5.725.7220.6920.69-3.35-3.35
College of CharlestonCAA4.294.2970.9770.971.801.80
UNC WilmingtonCAA4.264.2683.3383.332.842.84
DelawareCAA4.234.2334.4834.48-1.31-1.31
TowsonCAA4.214.2156.6756.670.560.56
William & MaryCAA4.204.2051.8551.850.160.16
ElonCAA4.164.1650.0050.000.000.00
HofstraCAA4.164.1644.8344.83-0.43-0.43
NortheasternCAA4.154.1544.8344.83-0.43-0.43
NiagaraMAAC1.891.8928.1228.12-0.83-0.83
QuinnipiacMAAC1.811.8133.3333.33-0.60-0.60
RiderMAAC1.791.7953.1253.120.110.11
MonmouthMAAC1.791.7981.2581.251.121.12
La SalleA101.751.7548.2848.28-0.06-0.06
HartfordAE1.741.7429.0329.03-0.73-0.73
Saint Joseph'sA101.721.7233.3333.33-0.57-0.57
PennIvy1.691.6944.4444.44-0.19-0.19
RutgersB101.691.6941.9441.94-0.27-0.27
North TexasCUSA1.691.6922.2222.22-0.94-0.94
LafayettePat1.671.6728.5728.57-0.71-0.71
High PointBSth1.611.6144.4444.44-0.18-0.18
IonaMAAC0.330.3364.7164.710.100.10
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.280.2859.3859.380.050.05
ManhattanMAAC0.280.2831.2531.25-0.10-0.10
SienaMAAC0.280.2850.0050.000.000.00
MaristMAAC0.250.2525.0025.00-0.13-0.13
Old DominionCUSA0.240.2461.2961.290.050.05
Stony BrookAE0.230.2358.0658.060.040.04
FairfieldMAAC0.230.2353.3353.330.020.02
George MasonA100.210.2159.3859.380.040.04
St. BonaventureA100.210.2162.5062.500.050.05
CanisiusMAAC0.200.2054.5554.550.020.02
NavyPat0.190.1948.3948.39-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.190.1941.3841.38-0.03-0.03
VermontAE0.180.1884.8584.850.130.13
UMBCAE0.180.1857.1457.140.030.03
PrincetonIvy0.160.1678.5778.570.090.09
CornellIvy0.160.1625.0025.00-0.08-0.08
RadfordBSth0.160.1640.0040.00-0.03-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.160.1638.4638.46-0.04-0.04
Rhode IslandA100.160.1672.7372.730.070.07
Boston UniversityPat0.160.1654.8454.840.020.02
VillanovaBE0.160.1691.1891.180.130.13
MassachusettsA100.160.1645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.160.1638.7138.71-0.04-0.04
DavidsonA100.150.1553.1253.120.010.01
YaleIvy0.130.1360.7160.710.030.03
Loyola MDPat0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.130.1314.2914.29-0.10-0.10
RiceCUSA0.130.1364.5264.520.040.04
South FloridaAmer0.130.1323.3323.33-0.07-0.07
RichmondA100.130.1362.5062.500.030.03
MaineAE0.130.1319.3519.35-0.08-0.08
Western MichiganMAC0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.110.1155.1755.170.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.110.1110.7110.71-0.09-0.09
UNC AshevilleBSth0.110.1170.0070.000.040.04
HarvardIvy0.110.1161.5461.540.030.03
DukeACC0.110.1177.1477.140.060.06
BrownIvy0.110.1139.2939.29-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.110.1140.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.100.1037.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Seton HallBE0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.1067.6567.650.040.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Appalachian St.SB0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
MarylandB100.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
East CarolinaAmer0.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
FIUCUSA0.080.0817.2417.24-0.05-0.05
BucknellPat0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
LehighPat0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
TempleAmer0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.080.0836.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
ClemsonACC0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.080.0887.8887.880.060.06
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Michigan St.B100.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
ToledoMAC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
AlbanyAE0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0828.1228.12-0.03-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Montana St.BSky0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
WinthropBSth0.060.0680.0080.000.030.03
AmericanPat0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0640.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
DuquesneA100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
KentuckySEC0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
Miami OHMAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
OaklandHorz0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
South DakotaSum0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
NevadaMWC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
New HampshireAE0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Penn St.B100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Boise St.MWC0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
WagnerNEC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
UABCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
NJITASun0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0310.0010.00-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
MercerSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.030.0396.9796.970.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
MississippiSEC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
DePaulBE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
IndianaB100.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
MichiganB100.030.0368.5768.570.010.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
NebraskaB100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.023.333.33-0.02-0.02
PacificWCC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01