live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Dec 6, 2016.


Drexel

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:217.5
Current RPI:146
Expected SOS:211
Current SOS:208
Current Record:4-4
Expected Record:12-18
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-5
Current OOC Record:4-4
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:193
Expected OOC SOS:297



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-1092.50.08%
19-11106.00.23%
18-12121.20.81%
17-13137.62.23%
16-14154.24.82%
15-15171.49.01%
14-16189.313.71%
13-17208.217.40%
12-18226.217.68%
11-19243.315.21%
10-20260.710.03%
9-21276.95.55%
8-22290.52.38%
7-23304.10.74%
6-24312.40.11%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Drexel.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Monmouth (66.9)MAACA78-65L0%0.0
11-13Rutgers (138.5)B10A87-66L0%0.0
11-18Hartford (325.7)AEH87-73W100%0.0
11-20North Texas (294.9)CUSAA62-83W100%0.0
11-23Niagara (266.5)MAACA93-74L0%0.0
11-27La Salle (90.1)A10H78-89L0%0.0
11-30Lafayette (276.3)PatA70-74W100%0.0
12-3High Point (245.0)BSthA72-78W100%0.0
12-11Saint Joseph's (126.8)A10H0-039%-3.4
12-16Rider (198.1)MAACA0-036%-4.5
12-21Quinnipiac (254.3)MAACA0-047%-0.9
12-28Penn (143.8)IvyA0-021%-9.6
12-31James Madison (264.0)CAAA0-043%-2.0
1-2Northeastern (190.9)CAAH0-052%0.7
1-5UNC Wilmington (48.9)CAAH0-023%-8.9
1-7William & Mary (171.5)CAAA0-029%-6.6
1-12Northeastern (190.9)CAAA0-032%-5.6
1-14Delaware (225.1)CAAH0-059%2.8
1-19Elon (150.8)CAAA0-027%-7.4
1-21UNC Wilmington (48.9)CAAA0-010%-15.1
1-26Hofstra (221.4)CAAH0-060%3.1
1-28College of Charleston (117.3)CAAH0-039%-3.3
2-2Towson (154.9)CAAA0-024%-8.4
2-4Hofstra (221.4)CAAA0-040%-3.1
2-9William & Mary (171.5)CAAH0-049%-0.3
2-11Towson (154.9)CAAH0-043%-2.1
2-16Delaware (225.1)CAAA0-038%-3.5
2-18Elon (150.8)CAAH0-046%-1.1
2-23James Madison (264.0)CAAH0-064%4.3
2-25College of Charleston (117.3)CAAA0-021%-9.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Drexel's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Drexel's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Drexel.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DrexelCAA28.2826.3660.0045.205.66-2.53
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.004.2783.3376.860.002.29
DelawareCAA0.454.2750.0040.990.00-0.77
College of CharlestonCAA0.004.2466.6761.120.000.94
HofstraCAA0.004.2455.5643.430.00-0.56
James MadisonCAA0.004.2412.5029.01-0.00-1.78
NortheasternCAA0.004.2444.4442.22-0.00-0.66
TowsonCAA0.004.2442.8652.89-0.000.25
ElonCAA0.004.2462.5054.000.000.34
William & MaryCAA0.004.2333.3344.87-0.00-0.43
NiagaraMAAC7.511.9114.2933.61-5.36-0.63
RiderMAAC0.351.8657.1450.340.050.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.351.8528.5737.00-0.15-0.48
MonmouthMAAC6.251.8375.0071.293.120.78
La SalleA106.251.8150.0054.980.000.18
HartfordAE7.551.8125.0027.33-3.78-0.82
Saint Joseph'sA100.001.7842.8644.80-0.00-0.19
PennIvy0.001.7533.3355.80-0.000.20
RutgersB107.511.7585.7148.535.36-0.05
North TexasCUSA7.381.7540.0032.51-1.48-0.61
LafayettePat6.251.7350.0036.710.00-0.46
High PointBSth6.251.7242.8646.53-0.89-0.12
IonaMAAC0.390.3357.1464.540.060.10
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.450.3057.1450.860.060.01
MaristMAAC0.390.2744.4434.60-0.04-0.08
ManhattanMAAC0.000.2722.2232.01-0.00-0.10
SienaMAAC0.000.2733.3350.05-0.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.2537.5043.19-0.00-0.03
FairfieldMAAC0.000.2562.5055.890.000.03
Old DominionCUSA0.000.2362.5066.500.000.08
St. BonaventureA100.000.2275.0070.350.000.09
CanisiusMAAC0.350.2237.5044.42-0.09-0.02
NavyPat0.390.2033.3338.56-0.13-0.05
George MasonA100.000.2062.5046.490.00-0.01
VermontAE0.000.1962.5071.400.000.08
Rhode IslandA100.000.1766.6770.400.000.07
CornellIvy0.790.1728.5730.43-0.34-0.07
ColumbiaIvy0.000.1742.8643.78-0.00-0.02
VillanovaBE0.890.17100.0084.740.890.12
CharlotteCUSA0.000.1762.5050.630.000.00
RadfordBSth0.000.1728.5734.49-0.00-0.05
Boston UniversityPat0.000.1742.8655.07-0.000.02
FordhamA100.000.1750.0041.640.00-0.03
UMBCAE0.000.1680.0054.190.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.450.1520.0060.00-0.270.03
YaleIvy0.000.1542.8663.63-0.000.04
South FloridaAmer0.000.1457.1433.200.00-0.05
MassachusettsA100.000.1471.4358.170.000.02
DavidsonA100.000.1471.4362.990.000.04
MaineAE0.000.1414.2923.40-0.00-0.07
LibertyBSth0.000.1228.5746.79-0.00-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.1228.5724.39-0.00-0.06
DukeACC0.000.1290.0080.060.000.07
HarvardIvy0.000.1233.3349.39-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.1262.5071.850.000.05
BrownIvy0.390.1250.0043.770.00-0.01
CampbellBSth0.000.1242.8639.64-0.00-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.000.1220.0021.92-0.00-0.06
Loyola MDPat0.000.1242.8645.85-0.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.1275.0070.570.000.05
Holy CrossPat0.350.1137.5047.44-0.09-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.780.1125.0041.19-0.39-0.02
BradleyMVC0.000.1137.5025.74-0.00-0.05
Seton HallBE0.000.1175.0054.480.000.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.350.1144.4438.15-0.04-0.03
RichmondA100.000.1150.0048.500.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.000.1170.0050.010.000.00
MarylandB100.000.1187.5059.030.000.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.1116.6735.90-0.00-0.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.350.1162.5052.400.090.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0914.2942.77-0.00-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.090.0020.72-0.00-0.05
BucknellPat0.450.0970.0070.530.180.04
LehighPat0.450.0937.5061.81-0.110.02
TempleAmer0.450.0975.0064.820.220.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0912.5037.11-0.00-0.02
FIUCUSA0.000.0914.2935.05-0.00-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0930.0045.49-0.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.0985.7175.800.000.04
ArmyPat0.000.0942.8650.29-0.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.0955.5647.600.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.740.0928.5727.38-0.32-0.04
ClemsonACC0.390.0971.4354.560.170.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0928.5738.92-0.00-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0987.5075.730.000.04
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0928.5723.02-0.00-0.05
Saint LouisA100.000.0925.0023.99-0.00-0.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.450.0850.0066.380.000.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0816.6739.99-0.00-0.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0860.0058.780.000.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0837.5047.57-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.350.0816.6730.09-0.23-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0857.1429.760.00-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.000.0857.1454.200.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0675.0058.720.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.0687.5075.690.000.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.060.0019.08-0.00-0.04
AmericanPat0.000.0612.5028.64-0.00-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0620.0038.50-0.00-0.01
ColgatePat0.000.0612.5030.11-0.00-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0633.3351.98-0.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0657.1472.530.000.03
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0620.0017.37-0.00-0.04
WinthropBSth0.000.0650.0071.340.000.03
Miami FLACC0.390.0677.7866.740.220.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0633.3336.67-0.00-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.000.0642.8641.13-0.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0642.8644.89-0.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0637.5028.47-0.00-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0642.8645.50-0.00-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0657.1453.860.000.00
DaytonA100.000.0671.4373.270.000.03
DuquesneA100.000.0640.0039.19-0.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0655.5642.150.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.0675.0072.930.000.03
Boise St.MWC0.000.0650.0056.890.000.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0625.0038.98-0.00-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0642.8644.90-0.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0017.16-0.00-0.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0683.3379.920.000.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0650.0050.980.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0650.0045.130.00-0.01
IowaB100.000.0644.4438.41-0.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.0687.5082.220.000.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0671.4363.080.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.0671.4347.690.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.0642.8656.48-0.000.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0677.7871.770.000.02
NorthwesternB100.000.0675.0066.090.000.02
OaklandHorz0.000.0685.7177.000.000.03
Penn St.B100.000.0666.6746.170.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.000.0650.0046.820.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.000.0650.0030.320.00-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.000.0644.4441.55-0.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0677.7855.180.000.01
WisconsinB100.000.0677.7876.550.000.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0575.0050.980.000.00
AlbanyAE0.000.0542.8660.66-0.000.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.0550.0042.750.00-0.01
New HampshireAE0.000.0562.5062.120.000.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0520.0035.15-0.00-0.02
WagnerNEC0.350.0528.5752.65-0.150.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0362.5053.550.000.00
NJITASun0.450.0344.4451.58-0.050.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.390.0357.1459.020.060.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0057.950.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.0337.5031.15-0.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0342.8650.33-0.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.450.0312.5026.05-0.33-0.01
Texas TechB120.520.0387.5061.660.390.01
UABCUSA0.000.0350.0059.840.000.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.390.0371.4355.570.170.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.520.0362.5067.590.130.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0320.0035.46-0.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0325.0029.90-0.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.390.0355.5646.770.04-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.390.0385.7162.500.280.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0337.5035.03-0.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0357.1471.170.000.01
MercerSC0.000.0342.8647.68-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.390.0371.4337.680.17-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.03100.0092.200.000.02
IllinoisB100.000.0366.6751.140.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0360.0067.820.000.01
IndianaB100.000.0387.5074.510.000.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0342.8650.98-0.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0371.4358.830.000.00
MichiganB100.000.0377.7865.840.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0388.8966.920.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0375.0047.990.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.000.0357.1444.830.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.000.0377.7862.010.000.01
PurdueB100.000.0377.7877.640.000.02
BuffaloMAC0.390.0333.3352.03-0.130.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0325.0030.02-0.00-0.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0375.0056.270.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.030.0036.38-0.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0387.5081.910.000.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0020.63-0.00-0.02
PacificWCC0.000.0342.8645.98-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.350.03100.0078.180.350.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.350.030.0026.22-0.35-0.01
SyracuseACC0.350.0362.5062.080.090.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0337.5038.08-0.00-0.01