Massachusetts

Conference:	A10
Expected RPI:	240.0
Current RPI:	240
Expected SOS:	144
Current SOS:	144
Current Record:	13-20
Expected Record:	13-20
Current Conf Record:	6-14
Expected Conf Record:	6-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	4-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-6
Current OOC Record:	7-6
Expected OOC Record:	7-6
Expected OOC RPI:	209
Expected OOC SOS:	192

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
13-20	240.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Massachusetts.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	UMass Lowell (289.0)	AE	H	74-69	W	100%
11-12	Harvard (117.0)	Ivy	A	70-67	L	0%
11-19	Niagara (163.0)	MAAC	H	101-76	W	100%
11-21	Western Carolina (215.0)	SC	H	85-76	W	100%
11-24	Minnesota (171.0)	B10	N	69-51	L	0%
11-25	BYU (67.0)	WCC	N	68-66	L	0%
11-29	Quinnipiac (277.0)	MAAC	A	68-66	L	0%
12-2	South Carolina (90.0)	SEC	A	76-70	L	0%
12-6	Holy Cross (265.0)	Pat	H	64-50	W	100%
12-9	Providence (32.0)	BE	H	72-63	W	100%
12-16	Georgia (79.0)	SEC	H	72-62	W	100%
12-20	Georgia St. (120.0)	SB	H	63-71	L	0%
12-22	Maine (338.0)	AE	H	74-63	W	100%
12-30	St. Bonaventure (24.0)	A10	A	98-78	L	0%
1-3	George Mason (201.0)	A10	H	72-80	L	0%
1-6	Dayton (146.0)	A10	A	60-62	W	100%
1-10	La Salle (202.0)	A10	H	86-79	W	100%
1-14	Saint Joseph's (147.0)	A10	H	72-69	W	100%
1-17	Rhode Island (19.0)	A10	A	73-51	L	0%
1-20	Saint Louis (148.0)	A10	H	47-66	L	0%
1-24	La Salle (202.0)	A10	A	87-72	L	0%
1-27	Fordham (290.0)	A10	A	82-69	L	0%
1-30	Rhode Island (19.0)	A10	H	83-85	L	0%
2-3	Dayton (146.0)	A10	H	86-82	W	100%
2-10	Saint Joseph's (147.0)	A10	A	85-73	L	0%
2-14	George Washington (195.0)	A10	H	72-83	L	0%
2-17	Davidson (47.0)	A10	A	83-78	L	0%
2-21	VCU (135.0)	A10	H	78-82	L	0%
2-24	George Mason (201.0)	A10	A	78-76	L	0%
2-28	Richmond (176.0)	A10	A	90-65	L	0%
3-3	Duquesne (259.0)	A10	H	85-75	W	100%
3-7	La Salle (202.0)	A10	N	67-69	W	100%
3-8	George Mason (201.0)	A10	N	80-75	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Massachusetts's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Massachusetts's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Massachusetts.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Massachusetts	A10	26.21	26.21	33.33	33.33	-8.74	-8.74
La Salle	A10	5.11	5.11	41.38	41.38	-0.88	-0.88
George Mason	A10	5.11	5.11	43.33	43.33	-0.68	-0.68
Saint Joseph's	A10	3.81	3.81	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Rhode Island	A10	3.76	3.76	76.67	76.67	2.01	2.01
Dayton	A10	3.62	3.62	48.28	48.28	-0.12	-0.12
VCU	A10	2.25	2.25	53.12	53.12	0.14	0.14
Fordham	A10	2.23	2.23	26.67	26.67	-1.04	-1.04
Saint Louis	A10	2.22	2.22	48.39	48.39	-0.07	-0.07
George Washington	A10	2.20	2.20	43.75	43.75	-0.28	-0.28
Davidson	A10	2.20	2.20	64.52	64.52	0.64	0.64
St. Bonaventure	A10	2.20	2.20	77.42	77.42	1.21	1.21
Richmond	A10	2.17	2.17	35.48	35.48	-0.63	-0.63
Duquesne	A10	2.13	2.13	51.61	51.61	0.07	0.07
Maine	AE	1.66	1.66	13.79	13.79	-1.20	-1.20
Holy Cross	Pat	1.66	1.66	40.00	40.00	-0.33	-0.33
Harvard	Ivy	1.66	1.66	55.17	55.17	0.17	0.17
Niagara	MAAC	1.63	1.63	61.29	61.29	0.37	0.37
Minnesota	B10	1.61	1.61	45.16	45.16	-0.16	-0.16
Providence	BE	1.61	1.61	63.64	63.64	0.44	0.44
Quinnipiac	MAAC	1.59	1.59	34.38	34.38	-0.50	-0.50
UMass Lowell	AE	1.57	1.57	39.29	39.29	-0.34	-0.34
Georgia St.	SB	1.56	1.56	67.74	67.74	0.55	0.55
Georgia	SEC	1.56	1.56	56.25	56.25	0.20	0.20
South Carolina	SEC	1.56	1.56	48.39	48.39	-0.05	-0.05
BYU	WCC	1.54	1.54	69.70	69.70	0.61	0.61
Western Carolina	SC	1.54	1.54	37.93	37.93	-0.37	-0.37
Penn	Ivy	0.24	0.24	74.19	74.19	0.12	0.12
Vermont	AE	0.22	0.22	78.79	78.79	0.13	0.13
Bucknell	Pat	0.21	0.21	73.53	73.53	0.10	0.10
Auburn	SEC	0.21	0.21	78.12	78.12	0.12	0.12
Temple	Amer	0.19	0.19	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.19	0.19	88.24	88.24	0.14	0.14
New Hampshire	AE	0.17	0.17	27.59	27.59	-0.08	-0.08
Binghamton	AE	0.17	0.17	31.03	31.03	-0.07	-0.07
Brown	Ivy	0.17	0.17	38.46	38.46	-0.04	-0.04
Manhattan	MAAC	0.17	0.17	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.16	0.16	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.16	0.16	84.85	84.85	0.11	0.11
Cornell	Ivy	0.15	0.15	40.74	40.74	-0.03	-0.03
South Alabama	SB	0.14	0.14	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Princeton	Ivy	0.14	0.14	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.14	0.14	55.88	55.88	0.02	0.02
UT Arlington	SB	0.14	0.14	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Iona	MAAC	0.14	0.14	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Lafayette	Pat	0.14	0.14	30.00	30.00	-0.06	-0.06
Siena	MAAC	0.14	0.14	25.00	25.00	-0.07	-0.07
Alabama	SEC	0.14	0.14	55.88	55.88	0.02	0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.14	0.14	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Fairfield	MAAC	0.14	0.14	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Georgia Southern	SB	0.14	0.14	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
UMBC	AE	0.13	0.13	67.74	67.74	0.05	0.05
Albany	AE	0.13	0.13	67.74	67.74	0.05	0.05
Hartford	AE	0.13	0.13	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Boston University	Pat	0.13	0.13	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.13	0.13	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Mercer	SC	0.12	0.12	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
VMI	SC	0.12	0.12	25.00	25.00	-0.06	-0.06
Marist	MAAC	0.12	0.12	19.35	19.35	-0.07	-0.07
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Northwestern	B10	0.12	0.12	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.12	0.12	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
Penn St.	B10	0.12	0.12	61.76	61.76	0.03	0.03
Seton Hall	BE	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Rider	MAAC	0.11	0.11	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
Wofford	SC	0.10	0.10	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Columbia	Ivy	0.10	0.10	26.92	26.92	-0.05	-0.05
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.10	0.10	23.08	23.08	-0.05	-0.05
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.10	0.10	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.10	0.10	9.68	9.68	-0.08	-0.08
Appalachian St.	SB	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Kentucky	SEC	0.09	0.09	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Arkansas	SEC	0.09	0.09	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Drexel	CAA	0.09	0.09	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.09	0.09	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.09	0.09	93.94	93.94	0.08	0.08
Georgetown	BE	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.09	0.09	75.76	75.76	0.05	0.05
James Madison	CAA	0.09	0.09	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
St. John's	BE	0.09	0.09	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.09	0.09	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Marquette	BE	0.09	0.09	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Xavier	BE	0.09	0.09	84.85	84.85	0.06	0.06
Furman	SC	0.08	0.08	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Loyola MD	Pat	0.07	0.07	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Wagner	NEC	0.07	0.07	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.07	0.07	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Chattanooga	SC	0.07	0.07	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Yale	Ivy	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Colgate	Pat	0.07	0.07	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Navy	Pat	0.07	0.07	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
College of Charleston	CAA	0.07	0.07	77.42	77.42	0.04	0.04
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.07	0.07	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Akron	MAC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Army	Pat	0.07	0.07	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Rutgers	B10	0.07	0.07	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.07	0.07	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
Towson	CAA	0.07	0.07	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Troy	SB	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Monmouth	MAAC	0.07	0.07	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
LSU	SEC	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.07	0.07	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.07	0.07	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.07	0.07	14.29	14.29	-0.05	-0.05
Fresno St.	MWC	0.07	0.07	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.07	0.07	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Louisville	ACC	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.07	0.07	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
William & Mary	CAA	0.07	0.07	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Butler	BE	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.07	0.07	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Creighton	BE	0.07	0.07	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Gonzaga	WCC	0.07	0.07	88.24	88.24	0.05	0.05
San Diego	WCC	0.07	0.07	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Samford	SC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
The Citadel	SC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Cincinnati	Amer	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.43	71.43	0.02	0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
American	Pat	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.05	0.05	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.05	0.05	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	Amer	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.02	0.02
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Maryland	B10	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.03	-0.03
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.05	82.35	82.35	0.03	0.03
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.03	-0.03
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Texas St.	SB	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Washington St.	P12	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Texas A&M	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
USC Upstate	ASun	0.05	0.05	10.71	10.71	-0.04	-0.04
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Houston	Amer	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	12.50	12.50	-0.03	-0.03
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Winthrop	BSth	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.04	0.04	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.04	0.04	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Pacific	WCC	0.04	0.04	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.04	0.04	16.13	16.13	-0.03	-0.03
Portland	WCC	0.04	0.04	24.14	24.14	-0.02	-0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.04	0.04	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
NJIT	ASun	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
High Point	BSth	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.02	0.02	24.24	24.24	-0.01	-0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
West Virginia	B12	0.02	0.02	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.02	0.02	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.02	0.02	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Charlotte	CUSA	0.02	0.02	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.02	0.02	32.35	32.35	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.02	0.02	20.00	20.00	-0.01	-0.01
Drake	MVC	0.02	0.02	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
FIU	CUSA	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.02	0.02	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.02	0.02	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Illinois	B10	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.02	0.02	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.02	0.02	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Michigan St.	B10	0.02	0.02	87.88	87.88	0.02	0.02
Montana	BSky	0.02	0.02	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	82.76	82.76	0.02	0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.02	0.02	83.33	83.33	0.02	0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.02	0.02	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.02	0.02	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.02	0.02	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.02	0.02	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.02	0.02	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Seattle	WAC	0.02	0.02	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.02	0.02	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Stetson	ASun	0.02	0.02	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Syracuse	ACC	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
TCU	B12	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.02	0.02	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
UTEP	CUSA	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Bryant	NEC	0.02	0.02	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
California	P12	0.02	0.02	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado	P12	0.02	0.02	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.02	0.02	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.02	0.02	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.02	0.02	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Texas	B12	0.02	0.02	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.02	0.02	30.77	30.77	-0.01	-0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.02	0.02	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.02	0.02	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Idaho St.	BSky	0.02	0.02	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.02	0.02	44.12	44.12	-0.00	-0.00
Utah	P12	0.02	0.02	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Utah St.	MWC	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Utah Valley	WAC	0.02	0.02	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
Washington	P12	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.02	0.02	60.71	60.71	0.00	0.00