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Through games of Feb 8, 2016.


Massachusetts

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:196.3
Current RPI:188
Expected SOS:104
Current SOS:109
Current Record:9-13
Expected Record:12-18
Current Conf Record:2-8
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-2
Current OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:185
Expected OOC SOS:227



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-14132.60.05%
15-15148.01.10%
14-16163.36.23%
13-17177.818.72%
12-18193.433.04%
11-19208.628.52%
10-20223.410.90%
9-21237.81.43%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Massachusetts.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Howard (297.7)MEACH85-79W100%0.0
11-17Harvard (214.2)IvyA63-69W100%0.0
11-19Central Arkansas (326.1)SlndH89-62W100%0.0
11-23Clemson (109.5)ACCN82-65W100%0.0
11-25Creighton (89.7)BEN97-76L0%0.0
12-2Boston University (192.6)PatH99-69W100%0.0
12-5Mississippi (111.1)SECH64-74L0%0.0
12-8UCF (193.4)AmerA67-63L0%0.0
12-13Florida Gulf Coast (215.6)ASunA77-76L0%0.0
12-16New Orleans (312.1)SlndH103-95W100%0.0
12-21Providence (45.4)BEH66-90L0%0.0
12-29LIU Brooklyn (286.2)NECH83-79W100%0.0
1-3La Salle (259.8)A10A67-74W100%0.0
1-6Dayton (13.2)A10A93-63L0%0.0
1-9St. Bonaventure (52.0)A10H77-88L0%0.0
1-12George Washington (45.0)A10H70-81L0%0.0
1-16Davidson (71.7)A10A86-74L0%0.0
1-23Saint Louis (201.5)A10H75-86L0%0.0
1-27Saint Joseph's (33.1)A10A78-70L0%0.0
1-30Fordham (189.5)A10H72-78L0%0.0
2-2Rhode Island (100.3)A10H61-56W100%0.0
2-6Richmond (108.5)A10A69-53L0%0.0
2-11VCU (37.0)A10H0-018%-10.1
2-14Duquesne (112.9)A10A0-028%-6.5
2-17Fordham (189.5)A10A0-033%-4.9
2-21George Mason (185.3)A10H0-067%4.7
2-24Saint Joseph's (33.1)A10H0-025%-7.4
2-27St. Bonaventure (52.0)A10A0-016%-10.8
3-3Rhode Island (100.3)A10A0-013%-12.1
3-5La Salle (259.8)A10H0-082%9.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Massachusetts's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Massachusetts's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Massachusetts.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MassachusettsA1026.1626.1436.2735.52-7.18-7.57
Saint Joseph'sA102.654.0281.8278.301.682.27
Rhode IslandA102.804.0159.0957.550.510.61
La SalleA102.694.0121.0521.32-1.56-2.30
FordhamA102.684.0052.6349.840.14-0.01
St. BonaventureA102.583.9270.0067.241.031.35
DaytonA102.662.3785.7181.771.901.51
DuquesneA100.492.3563.6455.890.130.28
RichmondA102.652.3152.3852.920.130.14
George WashingtonA102.642.3177.2773.581.441.09
George MasonA100.472.3134.7834.16-0.14-0.73
Saint LouisA102.532.3133.3331.18-0.84-0.87
DavidsonA102.592.3157.8956.400.410.30
VCUA100.432.2873.9173.630.201.08
ProvidenceBE2.431.8073.9169.981.160.72
Central ArkansasSlnd2.451.7622.2228.81-1.36-0.75
New OrleansSlnd2.391.7529.4135.56-0.99-0.51
HarvardIvy2.421.7536.8439.91-0.64-0.35
Florida Gulf CoastASun2.331.7345.0050.16-0.230.01
HowardMEAC2.391.7338.1040.37-0.57-0.33
LIU BrooklynNEC2.331.7350.0050.620.000.02
UCFAmer2.381.7250.0043.750.00-0.22
CreightonBE2.321.7260.8758.460.500.29
Boston UniversityPat2.331.7056.5257.490.300.25
MississippiSEC2.271.6963.6457.650.620.26
ClemsonACC2.271.6760.8760.420.490.35
VillanovaBE0.300.2286.9686.360.220.16
PennIvy0.160.2038.8937.62-0.04-0.05
Boston CollegeACC0.160.1730.4326.54-0.06-0.08
TempleAmer0.160.1763.6459.840.040.03
FloridaSEC0.200.1765.2266.070.060.05
St. John'sBE0.150.1725.0023.34-0.08-0.09
Old DominionCUSA0.150.1656.5262.790.020.04
Seton HallBE0.240.1673.9169.840.120.06
Northwestern St.Slnd0.110.1517.6526.67-0.07-0.07
North FloridaASun0.210.1565.2267.160.060.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.160.1514.2920.64-0.11-0.09
ColumbiaIvy0.160.1466.6765.220.050.04
ColgatePat0.100.1443.4844.80-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.200.1421.7422.99-0.11-0.08
Loyola MDPat0.150.1434.7837.17-0.05-0.04
RutgersB100.260.1421.7420.35-0.14-0.08
BrownIvy0.100.1431.5831.08-0.04-0.05
RiderMAAC0.150.1440.0042.12-0.03-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.150.1424.0024.50-0.08-0.07
Holy CrossPat0.150.1439.1338.33-0.03-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.100.1459.0958.870.020.02
AmericanPat0.100.1430.4331.91-0.04-0.05
XavierBE0.100.1491.3084.340.080.09
DePaulBE0.190.1334.7834.54-0.06-0.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.1217.6529.21-0.04-0.05
Nicholls St.Slnd0.120.1218.1821.06-0.08-0.07
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.1215.0026.98-0.00-0.06
StetsonASun0.160.1223.8127.69-0.08-0.05
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.110.1245.0049.42-0.01-0.00
NJITASun0.150.1254.1755.240.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.110.1213.0413.55-0.08-0.09
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.160.1250.0051.900.000.00
HofstraCAA0.110.1265.2264.210.030.03
PittsburghACC0.160.1276.1968.210.090.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.1252.1754.150.000.01
BryantNEC0.150.1125.0026.39-0.08-0.05
DrexelCAA0.110.1113.6418.14-0.08-0.07
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.100.1129.1733.74-0.04-0.04
PrincetonIvy0.110.1172.2274.700.050.06
TowsonCAA0.110.1165.2259.750.030.02
South FloridaAmer0.200.1120.0019.67-0.12-0.07
HoustonAmer0.050.1169.5766.530.020.04
Georgia TechACC0.000.1152.1751.630.000.00
VirginiaACC0.100.1182.6178.070.060.06
ButlerBE0.140.1169.5767.170.060.04
GeorgetownBE0.140.1156.0052.770.020.01
MarquetteBE0.050.1162.5056.200.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.120.0976.1972.290.060.04
USC UpstateASun0.100.0922.7323.24-0.06-0.05
Incarnate WordSlnd0.110.0952.9452.160.010.00
OhioMAC0.110.0961.9059.450.030.02
TulaneAmer0.120.0933.3332.31-0.04-0.03
CornellIvy0.110.0942.1140.18-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.160.0931.5831.76-0.06-0.03
MaineAE0.110.0933.3333.12-0.04-0.03
Miami FLACC0.100.0981.8276.750.070.05
TulsaAmer0.110.0965.2261.430.030.02
VermontAE0.110.0952.0054.870.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0942.8642.01-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.160.0986.9682.610.120.06
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.160.0931.8236.15-0.06-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.150.0925.0033.17-0.07-0.03
BinghamtonAE0.100.0920.8324.10-0.06-0.04
CanisiusMAAC0.100.0944.0045.27-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0928.0030.74-0.02-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.100.0937.5043.36-0.03-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0950.0049.450.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.100.0966.6762.580.030.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.150.0845.4554.11-0.010.01
UTSACUSA0.150.0813.6413.62-0.11-0.06
MemphisAmer0.100.0860.8760.780.020.02
WagnerNEC0.050.0863.6465.030.010.03
AuburnSEC0.110.0840.9136.60-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0870.8370.840.020.03
AlabamaSEC0.150.0859.0953.040.030.01
ArmyPat0.100.0854.1754.570.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.090.0869.5764.850.040.02
GeorgiaSEC0.100.0861.9056.690.020.01
Virginia TechACC0.100.0854.1749.230.01-0.00
NebraskaB100.100.0854.1751.850.010.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.120.0652.3847.040.01-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.110.0650.0049.850.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0621.7423.39-0.03-0.03
LipscombASun0.050.0625.0029.27-0.03-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0635.0034.72-0.02-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.120.0650.0049.770.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.120.0630.0029.25-0.05-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.120.0672.2275.580.050.03
FIUCUSA0.100.0640.9145.29-0.02-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.120.0690.4886.880.100.04
HamptonMEAC0.050.0659.0961.320.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0643.4850.66-0.010.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0666.6770.550.020.02
YaleIvy0.000.0673.6874.680.000.03
BradleyMVC0.110.0612.5012.85-0.08-0.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.100.0671.4368.720.040.02
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0678.2678.050.030.03
CaliforniaP120.110.0665.2262.840.030.01
Morehead St.OVC0.110.0650.0052.350.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.100.0682.6178.660.070.03
NortheasternCAA0.100.0645.8346.64-0.01-0.00
UMBCAE0.050.0624.0026.33-0.03-0.03
William & MaryCAA0.100.0671.4369.860.040.02
WoffordSC0.100.0643.4846.23-0.01-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0673.9172.490.030.03
East CarolinaAmer0.110.0643.4842.00-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.100.0640.0045.50-0.02-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.100.0634.7837.06-0.03-0.01
SienaMAAC0.050.0664.0064.140.020.02
MercerSC0.060.0669.5769.090.020.02
RadfordBSth0.050.0650.0051.290.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.110.0631.8230.47-0.04-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.100.0634.7835.64-0.03-0.02
BucknellPat0.050.0654.5558.170.000.01
LehighPat0.090.0636.3639.78-0.03-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.100.0679.1776.080.060.03
NavyPat0.090.0662.5062.390.020.01
PresbyterianBSth0.100.0625.0026.86-0.05-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.100.0643.4840.57-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0552.1755.940.000.01
DukeACC0.050.0575.0071.700.020.02
HartfordAE0.100.0525.0026.76-0.05-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.050.0570.8369.500.020.02
Kansas St.B120.100.0560.8758.370.020.01
KentuckySEC0.100.0573.9171.560.050.02
LongwoodBSth0.050.0522.7324.96-0.03-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0554.1755.070.000.01
Penn St.B100.050.0550.0046.710.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.100.0586.3679.140.070.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.100.0513.6415.79-0.07-0.04
VanderbiltSEC0.100.0556.5260.010.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0521.7422.73-0.03-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0554.1750.940.000.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0560.8760.760.010.01
MarylandB100.050.0587.5083.700.040.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0540.9140.65-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0534.7830.38-0.02-0.02
TCUB120.050.0545.8339.31-0.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0547.8346.89-0.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0581.8283.040.030.04
Ball St.MAC0.060.0363.6459.220.020.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0357.8961.750.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.050.0347.3749.98-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.060.0366.6763.440.020.01
South DakotaSum0.050.0341.6741.24-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0377.2776.870.030.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0330.4332.36-0.02-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0342.8639.19-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.060.0366.6769.510.020.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0350.0051.190.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0334.7840.93-0.02-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0363.6460.930.020.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.039.0912.25-0.04-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0352.3854.010.000.00
HawaiiBW0.050.0384.2181.700.040.02
KansasB120.060.0381.8277.600.040.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0319.0525.89-0.03-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0329.1733.14-0.02-0.01
PurdueB100.050.0379.1776.510.030.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0338.1037.70-0.00-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0328.5731.26-0.02-0.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0347.6245.85-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0322.7327.19-0.03-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.035.007.23-0.05-0.02
SMUAmer0.050.0390.9186.160.040.02
UC IrvineBW0.050.0372.7371.620.020.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0327.2731.06-0.02-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0336.8442.90-0.01-0.00
AlbanyAE0.050.0376.0076.300.020.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0386.9686.690.040.02
FurmanSC0.050.0354.1754.070.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0352.1751.960.000.00
IowaB100.050.0382.6180.590.030.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0359.0959.640.000.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0326.0927.81-0.02-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.0320.0022.32-0.00-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0379.1780.720.030.02
New HampshireAE0.050.0357.1453.980.010.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0350.0049.090.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.050.0370.8367.730.020.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.0356.5257.280.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0336.3636.08-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0317.3920.66-0.03-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0372.0070.510.020.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0347.8350.14-0.000.00
Texas TechB120.050.0359.0953.170.010.00
West VirginiaB120.050.0382.6179.560.030.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0345.4546.27-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0372.7376.360.020.01
ArizonaP120.050.0379.1778.350.030.02
Arizona St.P120.050.0354.1751.640.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0375.0076.230.020.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0345.4547.56-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0340.0039.00-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0357.8956.080.010.00
IllinoisB100.050.0345.8344.12-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.050.0379.1774.020.030.01
IUPUISum0.050.0340.0039.79-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0334.7836.50-0.00-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0343.4842.62-0.01-0.00
LSUSEC0.050.0365.2260.250.020.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0383.3383.030.030.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0371.4369.420.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.050.0333.3333.02-0.02-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0345.8342.26-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.039.0917.12-0.00-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0340.9143.34-0.01-0.00
TroySB0.050.0323.8126.67-0.03-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0327.7829.14-0.02-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.0360.8755.840.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.0356.5257.000.000.00