live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Nov 21, 2014.


Massachusetts

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:45.2
Current RPI:75
Expected SOS:53
Current SOS:177
Current Record:3-0
Expected Record:20-11
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-1
Current OOC Record:3-0
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:14
Expected OOC SOS:5



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
28-34.70.03%
27-45.60.14%
26-57.30.63%
25-610.11.30%
24-713.13.45%
23-817.57.10%
22-923.110.57%
21-1030.615.02%
20-1139.217.42%
19-1248.615.14%
18-1360.112.62%
17-1474.17.94%
16-1588.44.89%
15-16104.42.36%
14-17123.10.94%
13-18145.70.27%
12-19158.10.14%
11-20180.50.02%
10-21212.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Massachusetts.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Siena (134.9)MAACH95-87W100%0.0
11-16Boston College (151.3)ACCN62-71W100%0.0
11-18Manhattan (151.2)MAACH77-68W100%0.0
11-22Notre Dame (56.9)ACCN0-035%-4.6
11-23Florida St. (86.5)ACCN0-048%-0.6
11-26Northeastern (71.6)CAAH0-070%6.2
11-29Harvard (76.8)IvyA0-043%-2.1
12-2LSU (78.9)SECA0-040%-2.9
12-7Florida Gulf Coast (109.1)ASunN0-065%4.7
12-13Canisius (130.3)MAACH0-082%11.2
12-20Providence (45.4)BEA0-033%-5.4
12-23BYU (33.4)WCCA0-031%-5.8
12-30Iona (78.5)MAACH0-071%6.8
1-3St. Bonaventure (157.3)A10H0-079%9.5
1-7La Salle (108.6)A10A0-052%0.6
1-11George Mason (223.1)A10A0-078%9.2
1-14Davidson (135.8)A10H0-077%9.1
1-17Rhode Island (128.3)A10H0-074%7.8
1-21Saint Joseph's (219.2)A10A0-074%7.7
1-29Dayton (46.2)A10H0-056%1.9
1-31Saint Louis (79.5)A10A0-043%-2.1
2-4Fordham (234.6)A10A0-073%7.3
2-8La Salle (108.6)A10H0-074%7.7
2-11St. Bonaventure (157.3)A10A0-058%2.4
2-14Duquesne (169.4)A10H0-080%10.1
2-18Rhode Island (128.3)A10A0-052%0.6
2-21VCU (21.2)A10A0-025%-8.0
2-25Saint Joseph's (219.2)A10H0-089%14.9
2-28Fordham (234.6)A10H0-089%14.5
3-4Richmond (76.8)A10H0-065%4.5
3-7George Washington (35.5)A10A0-023%-8.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Massachusetts's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Massachusetts's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Massachusetts.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MassachusettsA1034.0326.15100.0064.8934.037.79
FordhamA100.003.930.0035.91-0.00-1.11
Saint Joseph'sA100.003.9133.3334.50-0.00-1.21
Rhode IslandA100.003.89100.0054.410.000.34
La SalleA100.003.88100.0057.250.000.56
St. BonaventureA102.783.8750.0051.770.000.14
DaytonA100.002.3166.6770.220.000.94
RichmondA100.002.2950.0063.570.000.62
George MasonA100.002.2825.0022.08-0.00-1.27
Saint LouisA100.002.26100.0066.390.000.74
DuquesneA100.002.260.0052.96-0.000.13
VCUA100.002.23100.0074.770.001.11
George WashingtonA100.002.2366.6777.400.001.22
DavidsonA100.002.23100.0049.340.00-0.03
SienaMAAC16.671.8950.0060.980.000.42
ManhattanMAAC16.671.890.0059.27-16.670.35
IonaMAAC0.001.8466.6768.220.000.67
CanisiusMAAC0.001.83100.0058.420.000.31
ProvidenceBE0.001.75100.0062.520.000.44
Florida St.ACC4.171.7550.0056.440.000.23
Boston CollegeACC16.671.7566.6743.185.56-0.24
Notre DameACC0.001.72100.0069.580.000.67
NortheasternCAA0.001.70100.0071.080.000.72
HarvardIvy0.001.6750.0067.280.000.58
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.001.64100.0073.270.000.76
BYUWCC0.001.61100.0069.330.000.62
LSUSEC0.001.6166.6756.720.000.22
MaristMAAC0.000.330.0043.44-0.00-0.04
NiagaraMAAC0.000.3150.0028.860.00-0.13
PittsburghACC0.000.2866.6751.250.000.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.2850.0059.350.000.05
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.2750.0055.680.000.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.270.0026.04-0.00-0.13
VirginiaACC0.000.25100.0076.260.000.13
FairfieldMAAC0.000.2533.3334.47-0.00-0.08
RiderMAAC0.000.2266.6751.360.000.01
DrexelCAA0.000.190.0034.27-0.00-0.06
VillanovaBE0.000.19100.0067.360.000.06
UMass LowellAE0.000.1833.3331.34-0.00-0.07
PennIvy0.000.170.0025.28-0.00-0.08
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.1725.0029.11-0.00-0.07
VermontAE2.780.1750.0066.020.000.05
BinghamtonAE0.000.160.0039.15-0.00-0.04
Miami FLACC0.000.16100.0073.200.000.07
BrownIvy0.000.1533.3338.39-0.00-0.03
CornellIvy0.000.1540.0041.64-0.00-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.13100.0052.690.000.01
ClemsonACC0.000.1333.3344.93-0.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.1350.0041.490.00-0.02
StetsonASun0.000.120.0032.16-0.00-0.04
DartmouthIvy0.000.120.0033.39-0.00-0.04
OhioMAC0.000.1250.0054.660.000.01
Penn St.B100.000.1175.0045.210.00-0.01
HowardMEAC0.000.110.0034.15-0.00-0.04
GonzagaWCC0.000.11100.0086.950.000.08
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1125.0057.21-0.000.02
St. John'sBE0.000.11100.0052.280.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.11100.0077.160.000.06
DelawareCAA0.000.110.0033.61-0.00-0.04
North CarolinaACC0.000.11100.0066.050.000.03
SyracuseACC0.000.1175.0070.210.000.04
HofstraCAA0.000.1166.6763.800.000.03
TempleAmer0.000.1166.6760.730.000.02
TowsonCAA0.000.1166.6745.850.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.11100.0086.380.000.08
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.11100.0059.140.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.11100.0041.370.00-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.0933.3349.73-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.000.090.0049.10-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0950.0052.770.000.00
DetroitHorz0.000.090.0055.45-0.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0933.3343.51-0.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.09100.0051.030.000.00
YaleIvy0.000.0950.0057.440.000.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0933.3357.87-0.000.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.08100.0070.600.000.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0850.0047.150.00-0.00
West VirginiaB122.080.08100.0068.582.080.03
XavierBE0.000.08100.0076.430.000.04
PepperdineWCC0.000.08100.0051.000.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.0866.6759.850.000.02
MississippiSEC0.000.0866.6760.220.000.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0866.6764.990.000.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0850.0040.180.00-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.0850.0044.000.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.08100.0068.990.000.03
ArkansasSEC0.000.08100.0074.210.000.04
FloridaSEC0.000.0866.6766.600.000.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.08100.0036.560.00-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.000.0866.6738.520.00-0.02
DePaulBE0.000.08100.0037.800.00-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.08100.0079.370.000.05
Seton HallBE0.000.08100.0057.560.000.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0850.0036.810.00-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.0866.6747.240.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0850.0045.610.00-0.01
NavyPat0.000.080.0032.22-0.00-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.000.060.0024.25-0.00-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.060.0027.11-0.00-0.03
LipscombASun0.000.060.0041.45-0.00-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0633.3338.27-0.00-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.060.0054.32-0.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.06100.0050.220.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0650.0060.970.000.01
KansasB120.000.0650.0060.200.000.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0633.3349.18-0.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.06100.0060.630.000.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0633.3328.03-0.00-0.03
MarylandB100.000.06100.0063.680.000.02
PacificWCC0.000.0650.0029.930.00-0.02
PortlandWCC0.000.06100.0050.390.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.0666.6748.270.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.000.06100.0061.810.000.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0031.91-0.00-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.06100.0070.040.000.02
New MexicoMWC2.080.0675.0062.011.040.01
RutgersB100.000.0650.0036.270.00-0.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.06100.0029.380.00-0.02
AuburnSEC0.000.0666.6742.560.00-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0633.3335.37-0.00-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.06100.0048.390.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.000.05100.0045.610.00-0.00
AlbanyAE0.000.0550.0063.960.000.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.050.0023.71-0.00-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0550.0051.340.000.00
KentuckySEC0.000.05100.0086.080.000.04
RadfordBSth0.000.0533.3344.86-0.00-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0533.3363.09-0.000.01
AmericanPat0.000.0566.6764.270.000.02
ColgatePat0.000.050.0036.43-0.00-0.01
DenverSum0.000.0550.0062.440.000.01
ElonCAA0.000.0550.0040.300.00-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.050.0043.82-0.00-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.050.0054.88-0.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0550.0043.330.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0550.0054.170.000.00
ButlerBE0.000.05100.0054.180.000.00
CreightonBE0.000.05100.0055.810.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.05100.0064.920.000.02
MarquetteBE0.000.0550.0054.250.000.00
FIUCUSA0.000.03100.0043.610.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.000.0350.0025.820.00-0.02
Arizona St.P120.000.03100.0058.420.000.01
BryantNEC0.000.0350.0054.540.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.030.0034.26-0.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0350.0049.560.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.000.03100.0065.750.000.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.030.0029.61-0.00-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.030.0051.04-0.000.00
CampbellBSth0.000.030.0030.14-0.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.03100.0063.380.000.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0375.0054.690.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0333.3352.91-0.000.00
MontanaBSky0.000.030.0049.81-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.030.0037.45-0.00-0.01
NJITind0.000.0333.3328.81-0.00-0.01
OklahomaB120.000.0350.0059.230.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0333.3338.44-0.00-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.03100.0082.150.000.02
St. Francis PANEC0.000.030.0051.62-0.000.00
StanfordP120.000.03100.0068.290.000.01
UtahP120.000.0366.6770.360.000.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.03100.0064.330.000.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.030.0055.60-0.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.0350.0052.540.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.03100.0055.900.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0038.98-0.00-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.03100.0061.540.000.01
BucknellPat0.000.0333.3346.82-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.03100.0075.400.000.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0050.900.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0366.6766.420.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0366.6757.590.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0333.3336.31-0.00-0.01
LehighPat0.000.030.0035.69-0.00-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0350.0021.230.00-0.02
MaineAE0.000.030.0016.80-0.00-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0045.64-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0350.0033.640.00-0.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0366.6750.370.000.00
New HampshireAE2.080.030.0041.70-2.08-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0023.20-0.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0061.070.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0333.3336.04-0.00-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.030.0035.17-0.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0350.0055.220.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0333.3351.38-0.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.030.0053.38-0.000.00
Texas TechB120.000.0350.0043.560.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.000.030.0043.40-0.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.000.030.0035.60-0.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0350.0059.030.000.01
USCP120.000.0350.0026.710.00-0.01
VMISC0.000.0350.0043.730.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.03100.0084.100.000.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0350.0072.160.000.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0350.0038.240.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.03100.0064.850.000.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.030.0048.48-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0350.0054.580.000.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0333.3363.82-0.000.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0055.380.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.03100.0058.280.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0027.18-0.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0031.68-0.00-0.01
HartfordAE0.000.0366.6738.630.00-0.01
High PointBSth0.000.03100.0058.330.000.00
IUPUISum0.000.0333.3330.78-0.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0366.6771.300.000.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.030.0032.86-0.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.03100.0046.320.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.03100.0045.530.00-0.00
PurdueB100.000.03100.0060.570.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.030.0038.65-0.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.03100.0044.620.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.000.030.0027.74-0.00-0.01
WoffordSC0.000.0366.6774.980.000.01