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Through games of Jan 20, 2018.


Massachusetts

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:201.1
Current RPI:181
Expected SOS:143
Current SOS:128
Current Record:10-10
Expected Record:15-16
Current Conf Record:3-4
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-4
Current OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:221
Expected OOC SOS:234



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-11100.50.06%
19-12122.40.41%
18-13140.02.18%
17-14159.16.94%
16-15177.015.74%
15-16193.723.38%
14-17209.824.77%
13-18224.816.73%
12-19239.67.63%
11-20253.72.00%
10-21269.80.15%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Massachusetts.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10UMass Lowell (320.4)AEH74-69W100%0.0
11-12Harvard (180.6)IvyA70-67L0%0.0
11-19Niagara (187.6)MAACH101-76W100%0.0
11-21Western Carolina (223.5)SCH85-76W100%0.0
11-24Minnesota (98.6)B10N69-51L0%0.0
11-25BYU (62.6)WCCN68-66L0%0.0
11-29Quinnipiac (307.8)MAACA68-66L0%0.0
12-2South Carolina (71.0)SECA76-70L0%0.0
12-6Holy Cross (304.1)PatH64-50W100%0.0
12-9Providence (43.7)BEH72-63W100%0.0
12-16Georgia (68.2)SECH72-62W100%0.0
12-20Georgia St. (135.6)SBH63-71L0%0.0
12-22Maine (331.5)AEH74-63W100%0.0
12-30St. Bonaventure (50.3)A10A98-78L0%0.0
1-3George Mason (224.6)A10H72-80L0%0.0
1-6Dayton (112.2)A10A60-62W100%0.0
1-10La Salle (181.9)A10H86-79W100%0.0
1-14Saint Joseph's (150.6)A10H72-69W100%0.0
1-17Rhode Island (14.4)A10A73-51L0%0.0
1-20Saint Louis (178.1)A10H47-66L0%0.0
1-24La Salle (181.9)A10A0-031%-5.5
1-27Fordham (280.6)A10A0-058%2.3
1-30Rhode Island (14.4)A10H0-018%-10.2
2-3Dayton (112.2)A10H0-045%-1.4
2-10Saint Joseph's (150.6)A10A0-025%-7.4
2-14George Washington (201.7)A10H0-065%4.4
2-17Davidson (82.5)A10A0-014%-12.1
2-21VCU (128.6)A10H0-043%-2.1
2-24George Mason (224.6)A10A0-049%-0.3
2-28Richmond (201.6)A10A0-040%-2.8
3-3Duquesne (213.1)A10H0-062%3.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Massachusetts's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Massachusetts's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Massachusetts.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MassachusettsA1026.3326.1042.5042.45-3.95-3.94
Saint Joseph'sA102.843.8752.9452.670.170.21
Rhode IslandA102.953.8782.3580.701.912.37
La SalleA102.703.8542.1143.29-0.43-0.52
DaytonA102.783.8150.0052.620.000.20
George MasonA102.703.7942.1138.99-0.43-0.83
FordhamA100.352.3131.5828.62-0.13-0.99
St. BonaventureA102.762.2864.7167.620.810.80
Saint LouisA102.762.2844.4445.08-0.31-0.22
George WashingtonA100.282.2645.0043.78-0.03-0.28
VCUA100.202.2560.0059.760.040.44
DavidsonA100.202.2358.8260.550.030.47
DuquesneA100.262.2370.0058.780.100.39
RichmondA100.192.2331.5833.46-0.07-0.74
MaineAE2.641.7811.1115.39-2.05-1.23
HarvardIvy2.691.7733.3344.65-0.90-0.19
Holy CrossPat2.711.7527.7831.52-1.20-0.65
NiagaraMAAC2.751.7560.0055.000.550.17
MinnesotaB102.771.7261.9056.230.660.21
ProvidenceBE2.691.7273.6862.481.280.43
QuinnipiacMAAC2.631.6927.7827.58-1.17-0.76
UMass LowellAE2.501.6731.2531.81-0.94-0.61
GeorgiaSEC2.571.6770.5957.861.060.26
Georgia St.SB2.571.6764.7164.300.750.48
South CarolinaSEC2.571.6758.8250.240.450.01
BYUWCC2.561.6480.0075.441.540.83
Western CarolinaSC2.561.6441.1836.61-0.45-0.44
VermontAE0.350.2273.6877.120.170.12
PennIvy0.130.2264.7162.780.040.06
BucknellPat0.200.2161.9068.010.050.08
AuburnSEC0.200.2189.4777.030.160.12
BrownIvy0.270.1950.0045.130.00-0.02
New HampshireAE0.200.1929.4138.15-0.08-0.05
ManhattanMAAC0.140.1947.3748.17-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.270.1952.6351.730.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.130.1744.4442.74-0.01-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.130.1652.9460.270.010.03
IonaMAAC0.190.1663.1666.880.050.05
Saint Mary'sWCC0.270.1690.4888.940.220.13
AlabamaSEC0.320.1668.4258.990.120.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.190.1644.4448.91-0.02-0.00
VillanovaBE0.130.1694.7490.310.120.13
AlbanyAE0.210.1470.0068.050.080.05
Boston UniversityPat0.280.1450.0053.160.000.01
HartfordAE0.210.1452.6346.880.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.130.1438.8946.68-0.03-0.01
CornellIvy0.130.1433.3333.36-0.04-0.05
South AlabamaSB0.200.1450.0045.900.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.190.1460.0062.030.040.03
VMISC0.070.1425.0024.17-0.03-0.07
MaristMAAC0.200.1321.0521.99-0.12-0.08
LafayettePat0.190.1322.2227.51-0.11-0.06
SienaMAAC0.260.1330.0031.69-0.10-0.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.1372.2258.940.030.02
Seton HallBE0.070.1375.0067.890.030.05
Boston CollegeACC0.190.1368.4255.060.070.01
CanisiusMAAC0.140.1360.0060.340.030.03
RiderMAAC0.190.1365.0065.370.060.04
UMBCAE0.140.1158.8258.360.020.02
ColumbiaIvy0.130.1120.0032.26-0.08-0.04
DartmouthIvy0.290.1121.4326.21-0.16-0.05
WoffordSC0.150.1168.7563.620.060.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.270.1130.0033.49-0.11-0.04
VirginiaACC0.070.1194.4485.440.060.08
Appalachian St.SB0.140.1133.3337.22-0.05-0.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.260.1110.5316.75-0.20-0.07
Georgia SouthernSB0.130.1166.6765.360.040.03
MercerSC0.130.1144.4454.89-0.010.01
FloridaSEC0.000.1173.6871.550.000.05
TennesseeSEC0.070.1172.2268.920.030.04
GeorgetownBE0.070.1168.4254.090.020.01
Old DominionCUSA0.070.1178.9576.760.040.06
FairfieldMAAC0.060.1138.8944.14-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.130.1147.3742.18-0.01-0.02
MarquetteBE0.130.1068.4260.530.050.02
Miami FLACC0.120.1076.4769.020.060.04
NorthwesternB100.120.1055.0050.370.010.00
Penn St.B100.120.1061.9055.770.030.01
YaleIvy0.070.0841.1847.51-0.01-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.140.0822.2228.67-0.08-0.04
ChattanoogaSC0.140.0822.2228.59-0.08-0.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.140.0866.6765.620.050.03
NevadaMWC0.070.0885.7182.070.050.05
UNC AshevilleBSth0.140.0850.0055.650.000.01
WagnerNEC0.140.0864.7164.540.040.02
KentuckySEC0.220.0873.6867.950.100.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.070.0877.7879.160.040.05
ArmyPat0.130.0861.1160.530.030.02
AkronMAC0.070.0847.0644.91-0.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.210.0852.6345.860.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.070.0861.1153.160.020.01
Western MichiganMAC0.200.0852.9452.230.010.00
ArkansasSEC0.060.0868.4264.200.020.02
ButlerBE0.130.0866.6763.070.040.02
DrexelCAA0.130.0830.0030.99-0.05-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.060.0825.0028.25-0.03-0.03
MonmouthMAAC0.130.0827.7840.88-0.06-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0829.4139.62-0.03-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0850.0048.740.00-0.00
XavierBE0.060.0885.7180.080.040.05
Central ConnecticutNEC0.140.0652.3848.520.01-0.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.150.0656.2556.810.020.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.070.0640.0042.57-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.150.0663.1663.180.040.01
AmericanPat0.000.0626.3228.140.00-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0627.7831.12-0.03-0.02
ColgatePat0.070.0650.0051.040.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0657.8966.250.010.02
FurmanSC0.000.0666.6768.500.000.02
LehighPat0.070.0638.8944.75-0.01-0.01
Little RockSB0.070.0622.2225.26-0.04-0.03
NavyPat0.070.0660.0055.160.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.070.0680.0075.050.040.03
SamfordSC0.070.0627.7832.66-0.03-0.02
Texas St.SB0.000.0657.8950.210.000.00
The CitadelSC0.070.0618.7518.40-0.04-0.04
TroySB0.070.0635.2942.76-0.02-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.070.0668.7567.640.030.02
WisconsinB100.070.0550.0046.260.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0589.4785.520.050.04
ClemsonACC0.140.0584.2173.210.100.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.140.0527.7838.13-0.06-0.01
LibertyBSth0.140.0552.9457.320.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0583.3381.350.000.03
Texas TechB120.070.0578.9571.810.040.02
TulaneAmer0.070.0563.1657.900.020.01
Ball St.MAC0.070.0561.1158.750.010.01
HofstraCAA0.070.0557.8959.470.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0542.1145.97-0.01-0.00
MissouriSEC0.140.0566.6763.200.050.01
OhioMAC0.070.0547.0648.44-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.070.0516.6724.46-0.05-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.070.0557.8953.190.010.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0568.4263.980.000.02
ToledoMAC0.070.0566.6767.690.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0536.8435.55-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.070.0544.4441.15-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.070.0550.0042.180.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.130.0572.2274.900.060.03
Florida St.ACC0.000.0573.6869.610.000.02
HoustonAmer0.130.0578.9572.990.070.02
Illinois St.MVC0.130.0547.3745.87-0.01-0.00
Kansas St.B120.000.0573.6862.720.000.01
MarylandB100.130.0570.0065.320.050.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0515.7920.92-0.05-0.03
RutgersB100.060.0557.8947.140.01-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0552.6350.250.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0533.3335.190.00-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.130.0511.1117.96-0.10-0.03
WinthropBSth0.070.0546.6758.78-0.000.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0517.6519.33-0.04-0.03
CreightonBE0.130.0575.0070.690.060.02
DePaulBE0.060.0542.1134.32-0.01-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0566.6763.420.020.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.0580.9583.260.000.03
IndianaB100.060.0557.8950.680.010.00
IowaB100.000.0547.6244.030.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0552.6355.290.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.060.0577.7869.360.030.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0527.7829.11-0.03-0.02
MichiganB100.000.0575.0070.270.000.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.050.0010.65-0.06-0.04
NebraskaB100.060.0566.6759.780.020.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0543.7554.09-0.010.00
PacificWCC0.060.0545.0044.46-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.060.0510.5318.34-0.05-0.03
PortlandWCC0.060.0527.7827.30-0.03-0.02
PurdueB100.060.0590.4888.380.050.04
San DiegoWCC0.060.0563.1657.540.020.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0533.3332.96-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.060.0563.1666.000.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.060.0564.7159.980.020.01
NJITASun0.070.0338.8942.60-0.02-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0320.0028.720.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0323.5325.630.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.070.0338.8946.03-0.02-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0323.5332.62-0.03-0.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0368.7563.960.000.01
High PointBSth0.070.0340.0047.86-0.01-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0326.6729.040.00-0.01
MontanaBSky0.070.0370.5973.140.030.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0383.3384.230.000.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0321.0539.47-0.04-0.01
RiceCUSA0.070.0311.1117.69-0.05-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0322.2227.330.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.070.039.5217.08-0.06-0.02
CampbellBSth0.070.0343.7545.34-0.01-0.00
ColoradoP120.070.0360.0053.730.010.00
DelawareCAA0.000.0347.3743.040.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.070.0321.0525.98-0.04-0.01
FIUCUSA0.070.0335.2935.57-0.02-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.0310.0019.620.00-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.070.0352.6343.120.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0338.8943.43-0.02-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0370.0068.220.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0347.0641.450.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.070.0370.5975.930.030.01
Oregon St.P120.070.0357.8950.810.010.00
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0358.8262.830.010.01
SeattleWAC0.070.0357.8954.500.010.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.070.0342.1143.50-0.01-0.00
SyracuseACC0.070.0368.4261.270.030.01
TCUB120.070.0373.6865.590.030.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.070.037.6923.28-0.06-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.0361.1164.130.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.070.0333.3334.11-0.02-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.070.0368.4257.780.020.00
West VirginiaB120.000.0384.2178.170.000.02
WyomingMWC0.070.0361.1156.830.020.00
BelmontOVC0.060.0371.4374.650.030.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0336.8431.120.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0320.0023.36-0.04-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.030.009.150.00-0.02
DrakeMVC0.060.0355.0049.070.01-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.060.0337.5037.68-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0336.8444.120.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0320.0041.760.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.035.8819.37-0.06-0.02
HowardMEAC0.000.0310.5327.310.00-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0343.7540.93-0.01-0.00
IllinoisB100.060.0347.3744.27-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.000.0350.0054.850.000.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0385.0083.180.000.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0318.7536.76-0.04-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0355.5656.710.000.00
North FloridaASun0.000.0331.5835.150.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.060.0380.9576.520.040.01
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0330.0032.53-0.02-0.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0340.0030.870.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0357.1460.400.000.01
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0352.9459.250.000.00
StetsonASun0.000.0333.3336.920.00-0.01
TexasB120.000.0363.1657.620.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0321.0544.26-0.03-0.00
UtahP120.060.0361.1158.950.010.00
Utah St.MWC0.060.0345.0045.50-0.01-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0366.6766.010.020.01
WashingtonP120.060.0370.0061.440.030.01
Weber St.BSky0.060.0356.2557.400.010.00