live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Massachusetts

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:195.0
Current RPI:195
Expected SOS:118
Current SOS:118
Current Record:15-18
Expected Record:15-18
Current Conf Record:5-15
Expected Conf Record:5-15
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-3
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:91
Expected OOC SOS:220



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-18195.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Massachusetts.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11UMass Lowell (309.0)AEH90-76W100%0.0
11-14Mississippi (77.0)SECA90-88L0%0.0
11-17Temple (137.0)AmerH70-67W100%0.0
11-20Holy Cross (204.0)PatN60-68W100%0.0
11-26Harvard (143.0)IvyH70-66W100%0.0
11-30Wagner (244.0)NECH62-55W100%0.0
12-3UCF (68.0)AmerH62-65L0%0.0
12-8Pacific (223.0)WCCH72-48W100%0.0
12-10Providence (56.0)BEA75-69L0%0.0
12-13North Carolina A&T (350.0)MEACH65-59W100%0.0
12-17Kennesaw St. (259.0)ASunH95-77W100%0.0
12-22Rider (198.0)MAACH78-67W100%0.0
12-28Georgia St. (104.0)SBA65-74W100%0.0
12-30St. Bonaventure (91.0)A10H77-89L0%0.0
1-4George Mason (103.0)A10A86-81L0%0.0
1-7VCU (22.0)A10A81-64L0%0.0
1-11Dayton (30.0)A10H67-55W100%0.0
1-15Rhode Island (31.0)A10A79-77L0%0.0
1-18Saint Joseph's (197.0)A10H62-57W100%0.0
1-21Fordham (215.0)A10H68-71L0%0.0
1-25Saint Louis (238.0)A10A74-70L0%0.0
1-28George Mason (103.0)A10H74-76L0%0.0
2-1La Salle (133.0)A10A88-78L0%0.0
2-7Rhode Island (31.0)A10H62-70L0%0.0
2-11Saint Joseph's (197.0)A10A76-87W100%0.0
2-15Duquesne (267.0)A10A96-66L0%0.0
2-18Davidson (93.0)A10H74-79L0%0.0
2-23George Washington (102.0)A10A83-67L0%0.0
2-26La Salle (133.0)A10H84-71W100%0.0
3-1Richmond (80.0)A10H64-75L0%0.0
3-4St. Bonaventure (91.0)A10A60-56L0%0.0
3-8Saint Joseph's (197.0)A10N70-63W100%0.0
3-9St. Bonaventure (91.0)A10N73-60L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Massachusetts's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Massachusetts's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Massachusetts.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MassachusettsA1026.2326.2340.4340.43-5.02-5.02
Saint Joseph'sA105.195.1939.2939.29-1.11-1.11
St. BonaventureA105.145.1458.6258.620.890.89
Rhode IslandA103.803.8070.9770.971.591.59
La SalleA103.673.6750.0050.000.000.00
George MasonA103.603.6056.6756.670.480.48
FordhamA102.262.2636.6736.67-0.60-0.60
Saint LouisA102.262.2634.3834.38-0.71-0.71
George WashingtonA102.232.2356.2556.250.280.28
VCUA102.232.2375.7675.761.151.15
DavidsonA102.232.2351.6151.610.070.07
DaytonA102.182.1879.3179.311.281.28
DuquesneA102.162.1629.0329.03-0.90-0.90
RichmondA102.152.1561.2961.290.490.49
TempleAmer1.711.7151.6151.610.060.06
RiderMAAC1.641.6456.2556.250.200.20
North Carolina A&TMEAC1.611.613.453.45-1.50-1.50
Holy CrossPat1.591.5948.3948.39-0.05-0.05
PacificWCC1.591.5932.2632.26-0.56-0.56
MississippiSEC1.591.5959.3859.380.300.30
ProvidenceBE1.591.5961.2961.290.360.36
Kennesaw St.ASun1.591.5941.3841.38-0.27-0.27
WagnerNEC1.591.5953.5753.570.110.11
HarvardIvy1.591.5964.0064.000.440.44
UCFAmer1.591.5964.5264.520.460.46
UMass LowellAE1.541.5434.4834.48-0.48-0.48
Georgia St.SB1.521.5262.0762.070.370.37
PennIvy0.280.2846.4346.43-0.02-0.02
VillanovaBE0.220.2291.1891.180.180.18
HoustonAmer0.190.1967.7467.740.070.07
St. Francis PANEC0.170.1748.3948.39-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.170.1723.3323.33-0.09-0.09
MemphisAmer0.170.1759.3859.380.030.03
PrincetonIvy0.150.1578.5778.570.090.09
MercerSC0.150.1543.3343.33-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.150.1525.8125.81-0.07-0.07
East CarolinaAmer0.140.1445.4545.45-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.140.1426.6726.67-0.07-0.07
MaristMAAC0.140.1425.0025.00-0.07-0.07
CanisiusMAAC0.140.1454.5554.550.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.140.1485.2985.290.100.10
SienaMAAC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.130.1338.4638.46-0.03-0.03
BrownIvy0.130.1339.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.130.1376.6776.670.070.07
Central ConnecticutNEC0.130.1320.6920.69-0.07-0.07
Sacred HeartNEC0.130.1340.6240.62-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
NJITASun0.120.1231.0331.03-0.05-0.05
UMBCAE0.120.1257.1457.140.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.120.1237.5037.50-0.03-0.03
BucknellPat0.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
New HampshireAE0.120.1258.6258.620.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.120.1227.5927.59-0.05-0.05
ArmyPat0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
ManhattanMAAC0.120.1231.2531.25-0.04-0.04
NiagaraMAAC0.120.1230.3030.30-0.05-0.05
YaleIvy0.110.1160.7160.710.020.02
DartmouthIvy0.100.1025.9325.93-0.05-0.05
VermontAE0.100.1084.8584.850.070.07
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.100.1055.8855.880.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.100.1042.4242.42-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.100.1046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
MaineAE0.100.1019.3519.35-0.06-0.06
HartfordAE0.100.1028.1228.12-0.04-0.04
Little RockSB0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.100.1081.8281.820.060.06
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
SMUAmer0.090.0988.2488.240.070.07
St. John'sBE0.090.0942.4242.42-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
FloridaSEC0.090.0975.0075.000.050.05
Penn St.B100.090.0945.4545.45-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.05-0.05
CornellIvy0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
BryantNEC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0828.1228.12-0.03-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.080.0810.0010.00-0.06-0.06
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
TroySB0.080.0858.8258.820.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
AlbanyAE0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
StetsonASun0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
AmericanPat0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0781.2581.250.050.05
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
ToledoMAC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Boston UniversityPat0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
PortlandWCC0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0787.5087.500.050.05
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
AuburnSEC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
DePaulBE0.070.0728.1228.12-0.03-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.070.0796.9796.970.070.07
HofstraCAA0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.070.0728.1228.12-0.03-0.03
NavyPat0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.070.0719.3519.35-0.04-0.04
TulsaAmer0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0784.3884.380.050.05
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0787.8887.880.050.05
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
BradleyMVC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0767.7467.740.020.02
IonaMAAC0.070.0764.7164.710.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
North FloridaASun0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
VMISC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
WinthropBSth0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
Georgia TechACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
LibertyBSth0.050.0555.1755.170.000.00
ButlerBE0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Seton HallBE0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
KentuckySEC0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
BelmontOVC0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
DukeACC0.050.0577.1477.140.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
BaylorB120.050.0577.4277.420.020.02
LSUSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
IndianaB100.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
IowaB100.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
MichiganB100.030.0368.5768.570.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
PurdueB100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Texas St.SB0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
RutgersB100.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Green BayHorz0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.020.0287.5087.500.020.02
MarylandB100.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.020.0282.3582.350.020.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.020.0237.0437.04-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Ohio St.B100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
PittsburghACC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.020.0237.0437.04-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Texas TechB120.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
UCLAP120.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
VirginiaACC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
West VirginiaB120.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
WyomingMWC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.020.0210.3410.34-0.02-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.020.0244.4444.44-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
Miami FLACC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
MontanaBSky0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.020.0217.8617.86-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.020.0212.9012.90-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
UABCUSA0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
IllinoisB100.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01