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Through games of Dec 20, 2014.


Massachusetts

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:93.1
Current RPI:37
Expected SOS:58
Current SOS:7
Current Record:6-5
Expected Record:16-15
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-1
Current OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:72
Expected OOC SOS:12



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-716.00.02%
23-823.00.06%
22-927.40.31%
21-1032.91.20%
20-1141.93.83%
19-1253.17.78%
18-1365.813.54%
17-1480.018.43%
16-1595.720.28%
15-16111.716.08%
14-17128.810.35%
13-18145.65.29%
12-19162.72.00%
11-20179.30.65%
10-21202.00.14%
9-22214.00.02%
8-23244.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Massachusetts.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Siena (211.1)MAACH95-87W100%0.0
11-16Boston College (153.3)ACCN62-71W100%0.0
11-18Manhattan (287.3)MAACH77-68W100%0.0
11-22Notre Dame (48.2)ACCN81-68L0%0.0
11-23Florida St. (185.7)ACCN75-69W100%0.0
11-26Northeastern (123.6)CAAH79-54W100%0.0
11-29Harvard (53.8)IvyA75-73L0%0.0
12-2LSU (69.7)SECA82-60L0%0.0
12-7Florida Gulf Coast (98.1)ASunN75-84L0%0.0
12-13Canisius (127.0)MAACH75-58W100%0.0
12-20Providence (64.0)BEA85-65L0%0.0
12-23BYU (51.6)WCCA0-020%-9.8
12-30Iona (95.6)MAACH0-058%2.4
1-3St. Bonaventure (99.8)A10H0-060%3.0
1-7La Salle (109.3)A10A0-037%-3.9
1-11George Mason (191.7)A10A0-058%2.3
1-14Davidson (27.6)A10H0-034%-4.7
1-17Rhode Island (59.8)A10H0-041%-2.7
1-21Saint Joseph's (169.9)A10A0-056%1.6
1-29Dayton (69.7)A10H0-054%1.2
1-31Saint Louis (262.7)A10A0-074%7.7
2-4Fordham (257.2)A10A0-071%6.3
2-8La Salle (109.3)A10H0-065%4.4
2-11St. Bonaventure (99.8)A10A0-032%-5.3
2-14Duquesne (236.3)A10H0-084%11.8
2-18Rhode Island (59.8)A10A0-017%-11.1
2-21VCU (17.1)A10A0-013%-13.0
2-25Saint Joseph's (169.9)A10H0-080%10.0
2-28Fordham (257.2)A10H0-090%14.7
3-4Richmond (77.7)A10H0-058%2.5
3-7George Washington (76.4)A10A0-024%-8.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Massachusetts's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Massachusetts's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Massachusetts.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MassachusettsA1027.6026.1353.6652.162.021.13
FordhamA100.253.9128.5727.67-0.11-1.75
Saint Joseph'sA100.003.8960.0043.960.00-0.47
Rhode IslandA100.193.8866.6773.480.061.82
La SalleA100.003.8754.5552.970.000.23
St. BonaventureA100.513.8677.7865.960.281.23
DaytonA100.252.3380.0070.590.150.96
RichmondA100.002.2760.0058.240.000.37
George MasonA100.232.2733.3329.78-0.08-0.92
Saint LouisA100.002.2560.0033.530.00-0.74
DuquesneA100.002.2537.5034.74-0.00-0.69
VCUA100.002.2272.7375.380.001.13
George WashingtonA100.002.2266.6765.110.000.67
DavidsonA100.002.2288.8977.760.001.23
ManhattanMAAC4.981.9133.3339.37-1.66-0.41
SienaMAAC4.551.8937.5051.31-1.140.05
IonaMAAC0.001.8460.0070.110.000.74
CanisiusMAAC4.551.8362.5064.371.140.53
Boston CollegeACC4.731.7775.0044.072.37-0.21
ProvidenceBE5.191.7572.7355.972.360.21
Florida St.ACC5.381.7560.0043.381.08-0.23
NortheasternCAA5.301.7277.7862.952.950.45
Notre DameACC4.941.7290.9176.364.040.91
HarvardIvy4.771.6783.3371.823.180.73
Florida Gulf CoastASun4.551.6475.0069.012.270.62
BYUWCC0.001.6170.0067.920.000.58
LSUSEC4.551.6177.7862.702.530.41
MaristMAAC0.730.339.0916.15-0.60-0.22
NiagaraMAAC0.250.3012.5029.51-0.19-0.12
MonmouthMAAC0.000.2850.0058.370.000.05
PittsburghACC0.230.2770.0051.780.090.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.250.2744.4450.60-0.030.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.250.2736.3648.18-0.07-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.450.2440.0037.64-0.09-0.06
VirginiaACC0.000.24100.0086.080.000.18
RiderMAAC0.250.2250.0053.250.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.1980.0053.260.000.01
DrexelCAA0.000.1822.2235.90-0.00-0.05
VillanovaBE0.000.18100.0082.970.000.12
UMass LowellAE0.000.1750.0050.490.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.1738.4644.61-0.00-0.02
PennIvy0.000.1737.5032.63-0.00-0.06
VermontAE0.830.1744.4457.69-0.090.03
BinghamtonAE0.860.160.0011.24-0.86-0.13
Miami FLACC0.000.1681.8266.010.000.05
ClemsonACC0.230.1660.0043.890.05-0.02
BrownIvy0.190.1540.0033.80-0.04-0.05
CornellIvy0.250.1555.5648.710.03-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.230.1444.4436.80-0.03-0.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1345.4545.10-0.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.1345.4537.60-0.00-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.000.1250.0046.690.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.1110.0027.17-0.00-0.05
Penn St.B100.000.1191.6755.310.000.01
OhioMAC0.250.1142.8637.71-0.04-0.03
HowardMEAC0.000.1130.0043.74-0.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.1188.8965.170.000.03
GonzagaWCC0.000.1190.9190.540.000.09
North CarolinaACC0.000.1172.7374.850.000.05
DelawareCAA0.000.110.008.56-0.00-0.09
Old DominionCUSA0.230.1190.0082.310.180.07
TempleAmer0.000.1163.6456.430.000.01
SyracuseACC0.000.1160.0058.120.000.02
DukeACC0.000.10100.0087.090.000.08
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.1075.0061.480.000.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.1066.6758.210.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.1060.0038.030.00-0.03
HofstraCAA0.000.1070.0076.180.000.05
TowsonCAA0.000.1060.0047.170.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0933.3341.02-0.00-0.02
YaleIvy0.190.0966.6761.820.060.02
North FloridaASun0.210.0950.0057.820.000.01
San FranciscoWCC0.250.0950.0054.170.000.01
Boston UniversityPat0.550.0830.0041.69-0.22-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0836.3646.72-0.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.000.0840.0048.02-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.210.0866.6744.720.07-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0842.8626.99-0.00-0.04
BuffaloMAC0.250.0877.7870.890.140.03
XavierBE0.000.0872.7367.590.000.03
PepperdineWCC0.000.0866.6755.670.000.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0862.5058.080.000.01
Loyola MDPat0.250.0833.3328.13-0.08-0.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0857.1455.330.000.01
West VirginiaB120.480.0890.9170.080.390.03
DePaulBE0.000.0860.0034.160.00-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0890.9183.090.000.05
Seton HallBE0.000.0890.0067.380.000.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.190.0837.5039.65-0.05-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.0880.0072.200.000.04
LouisvilleACC0.000.08100.0084.930.000.06
MississippiSEC0.000.0870.0052.600.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0844.4437.40-0.00-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0870.0061.320.000.02
FloridaSEC0.000.0863.6465.220.000.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.0863.6455.660.000.01
NavyPat0.610.0820.0022.16-0.36-0.04
TennesseeSEC0.000.0855.5646.290.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0857.1457.100.000.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0666.6767.930.000.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0610.0018.05-0.00-0.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0633.3328.79-0.00-0.03
LipscombASun0.000.0622.2238.44-0.00-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0633.3343.14-0.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.250.0637.5063.95-0.060.02
USC UpstateASun0.000.0663.6467.210.000.02
Holy CrossPat0.320.0657.1453.770.050.00
KansasB120.000.0690.0070.680.000.02
MarylandB100.000.0690.9168.230.000.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0627.2735.36-0.00-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.250.0670.0059.660.100.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0654.5564.070.000.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0633.3340.63-0.00-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0616.6743.20-0.00-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0625.0023.40-0.00-0.03
PacificWCC0.000.0655.5638.270.00-0.01
PortlandWCC0.000.0670.0051.040.000.00
RutgersB100.230.0654.5532.590.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.000.0654.5557.570.000.01
UCFAmer0.210.0555.5635.900.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.250.0572.7362.220.110.01
AlbanyAE0.440.0540.0055.01-0.090.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.190.050.009.06-0.19-0.04
PurdueB100.190.0566.6759.370.060.01
RadfordBSth0.250.0555.5658.650.030.01
Stony BrookAE0.440.0533.3355.24-0.150.01
Weber St.BSky0.230.0537.5044.33-0.06-0.01
DenverSum0.000.0545.4555.13-0.000.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0533.3345.04-0.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0550.0051.710.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0530.0029.75-0.00-0.02
AmericanPat0.000.0563.6463.240.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0550.0039.790.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.000.0572.7367.960.000.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0533.3349.35-0.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.000.0520.0042.59-0.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.000.0575.0052.140.000.00
ElonCAA0.000.0544.4451.07-0.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.0570.0059.220.000.01
KentuckySEC0.190.05100.0096.290.190.05
MarquetteBE0.000.0560.0048.980.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0530.0043.15-0.00-0.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0354.5548.490.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.000.0328.5745.89-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.320.0342.8649.02-0.05-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0336.3645.11-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.320.0362.5041.790.08-0.01
FIUCUSA0.250.0344.4450.41-0.030.00
FurmanSC0.250.0322.2231.81-0.14-0.01
Green BayHorz0.250.0375.0077.010.130.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0314.2915.15-0.00-0.02
CampbellBSth0.000.0325.0043.93-0.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.000.0325.0052.35-0.000.00
NJITind0.000.0341.6743.68-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0330.0039.59-0.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0355.5665.210.000.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0342.8637.83-0.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.000.0340.0036.66-0.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0350.0068.770.000.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0366.6754.470.000.00
LehighPat0.250.0344.4454.06-0.030.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0336.3650.71-0.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0320.0025.85-0.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.230.0316.6735.27-0.15-0.01
OklahomaB120.000.0370.0062.710.000.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0372.7372.580.000.01
StanfordP120.000.0366.6758.320.000.00
UMBCAE0.000.0318.1825.30-0.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0320.0040.84-0.00-0.01
UtahP120.000.0380.0080.520.000.02
Utah St.MWC0.000.0354.5548.260.00-0.00
VMISC0.000.0333.3338.93-0.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0360.0057.890.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0028.43-0.00-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0375.0067.140.000.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0333.3334.04-0.00-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0350.0058.070.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0375.0066.220.000.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0318.1820.86-0.00-0.02
MaineAE0.250.0311.1120.80-0.20-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.0330.0028.65-0.00-0.01
New HampshireAE0.250.0350.0060.410.000.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0023.69-0.00-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0312.5026.89-0.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0354.5544.930.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0333.3334.30-0.00-0.01
USCP120.000.0360.0036.410.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0387.5085.480.000.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.0366.6754.130.000.00
BelmontOVC0.000.0363.6464.880.000.01
Cal PolyBW0.230.0337.5041.94-0.06-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.210.0342.8649.51-0.03-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.190.030.0011.59-0.19-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0370.0064.680.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.190.030.0014.00-0.19-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0371.4363.770.000.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.230.0337.5050.31-0.060.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0362.5059.050.000.00
HartfordAE0.000.0350.0050.620.000.00
High PointBSth0.000.0366.6761.790.000.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0360.0061.600.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.0327.2728.86-0.00-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.230.0320.0044.37-0.14-0.00
Michigan St.B100.190.0366.6767.300.060.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0340.0032.26-0.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.190.0333.3341.20-0.06-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0342.8636.81-0.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0342.8633.27-0.00-0.01
OregonP120.000.0370.0057.440.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.230.0355.5673.740.030.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0318.1827.33-0.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.030.0031.89-0.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0366.6766.010.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.210.0340.0041.32-0.04-0.00
Texas TechB120.230.0390.0055.360.180.00
The CitadelSC0.210.0314.2932.16-0.15-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0363.6461.520.000.01
UABCUSA0.230.0330.0036.69-0.09-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.230.0355.5652.610.030.00
WoffordSC0.000.0377.7875.550.000.01