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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Massachusetts

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:171.0
Current RPI:171
Expected SOS:95
Current SOS:95
Current Record:14-18
Expected Record:14-18
Current Conf Record:7-13
Expected Conf Record:7-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-3
Current OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:192
Expected OOC SOS:258



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-18171.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Massachusetts.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Howard (328.0)MEACH85-79W100%0.0
11-17Harvard (193.0)IvyA63-69W100%0.0
11-19Central Arkansas (339.0)SlndH89-62W100%0.0
11-23Clemson (131.0)ACCN82-65W100%0.0
11-25Creighton (100.0)BEN97-76L0%0.0
12-2Boston University (196.0)PatH99-69W100%0.0
12-5Mississippi (96.0)SECH64-74L0%0.0
12-8UCF (219.0)AmerA67-63L0%0.0
12-13Florida Gulf Coast (209.0)ASunA77-76L0%0.0
12-16New Orleans (343.0)SlndH103-95W100%0.0
12-21Providence (40.0)BEH66-90L0%0.0
12-29LIU Brooklyn (254.0)NECH83-79W100%0.0
1-3La Salle (232.0)A10A67-74W100%0.0
1-6Dayton (21.0)A10A93-63L0%0.0
1-9St. Bonaventure (30.0)A10H77-88L0%0.0
1-12George Washington (68.0)A10H70-81L0%0.0
1-16Davidson (64.0)A10A86-74L0%0.0
1-23Saint Louis (206.0)A10H75-86L0%0.0
1-27Saint Joseph's (22.0)A10A78-70L0%0.0
1-30Fordham (176.0)A10H72-78L0%0.0
2-2Rhode Island (119.0)A10H61-56W100%0.0
2-6Richmond (121.0)A10A69-53L0%0.0
2-11VCU (37.0)A10H69-63W100%0.0
2-14Duquesne (162.0)A10A99-108W100%0.0
2-17Fordham (176.0)A10A76-66L0%0.0
2-21George Mason (201.0)A10H70-64W100%0.0
2-24Saint Joseph's (22.0)A10H57-74L0%0.0
2-27St. Bonaventure (30.0)A10A85-83L0%0.0
3-3Rhode Island (119.0)A10A68-50L0%0.0
3-5La Salle (232.0)A10H69-52W100%0.0
3-10Rhode Island (119.0)A10N62-67W100%0.0
3-11VCU (37.0)A10N85-70L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Massachusetts's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Massachusetts's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Massachusetts.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MassachusettsA1026.2026.2040.2840.28-5.10-5.10
Rhode IslandA105.315.3155.1755.170.550.55
Saint Joseph'sA103.903.9078.1278.122.192.19
La SalleA103.843.8428.5728.57-1.65-1.65
FordhamA103.813.8151.8551.850.140.14
VCUA103.773.7771.8871.881.651.65
St. BonaventureA103.713.7171.4371.431.591.59
DavidsonA102.352.3560.0060.000.470.47
DaytonA102.332.3377.4277.421.281.28
RichmondA102.282.2848.3948.39-0.07-0.07
George WashingtonA102.282.2868.7568.750.850.85
DuquesneA102.262.2650.0050.000.000.00
Saint LouisA102.252.2532.2632.26-0.80-0.80
George MasonA102.232.2335.4835.48-0.65-0.65
ProvidenceBE1.711.7168.7568.750.640.64
Central ArkansasSlnd1.651.6525.9325.93-0.79-0.79
New OrleansSlnd1.641.6426.9226.92-0.76-0.76
HarvardIvy1.641.6444.4444.44-0.18-0.18
HowardMEAC1.621.6234.4834.48-0.50-0.50
LIU BrooklynNEC1.621.6253.3353.330.110.11
Florida Gulf CoastASun1.611.6153.5753.570.120.12
UCFAmer1.611.6137.9337.93-0.39-0.39
CreightonBE1.611.6154.8454.840.160.16
Boston UniversityPat1.591.5956.6756.670.210.21
MississippiSEC1.591.5961.2961.290.360.36
ClemsonACC1.561.5656.6756.670.210.21
VillanovaBE0.220.2285.2985.290.150.15
AmericanPat0.190.1938.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Old DominionCUSA0.190.1962.8662.860.050.05
PennIvy0.180.1837.0437.04-0.05-0.05
North FloridaASun0.180.1863.3363.330.050.05
Seton HallBE0.170.1775.7675.760.090.09
Boston CollegeACC0.160.1621.8821.88-0.09-0.09
BrownIvy0.150.1525.9325.93-0.07-0.07
Holy CrossPat0.150.1542.4242.42-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
St. John'sBE0.150.1522.5822.58-0.08-0.08
RiderMAAC0.150.1539.3939.39-0.03-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.150.1557.5857.580.020.02
FloridaSEC0.150.1557.5857.580.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.140.1457.5857.580.020.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.140.1432.2632.26-0.05-0.05
Northwestern St.Slnd0.140.1420.8320.83-0.08-0.08
StetsonASun0.130.1326.6726.67-0.06-0.06
Coppin St.MEAC0.130.1324.1424.14-0.07-0.07
ColgatePat0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.130.1365.5265.520.040.04
Loyola MDPat0.130.1330.0030.00-0.05-0.05
RutgersB100.130.1319.3519.35-0.08-0.08
LafayettePat0.130.1320.0020.00-0.08-0.08
HoustonAmer0.130.1370.9770.970.050.05
NiagaraMAAC0.120.1221.8821.88-0.07-0.07
XavierBE0.120.1284.3884.380.080.08
ButlerBE0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
DePaulBE0.120.1229.0329.03-0.05-0.05
McNeese St.Slnd0.110.1126.9226.92-0.05-0.05
Nicholls St.Slnd0.110.1125.8125.81-0.06-0.06
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
TulaneAmer0.110.1135.2935.29-0.03-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.100.1013.7913.79-0.08-0.08
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
HofstraCAA0.100.1071.8871.880.050.05
PittsburghACC0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
NJITASun0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
BryantNEC0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
PrincetonIvy0.100.1077.7877.780.060.06
South FloridaAmer0.100.1024.2424.24-0.05-0.05
TowsonCAA0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
WagnerNEC0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
VirginiaACC0.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
AlabamaSEC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
DrexelCAA0.100.1020.0020.00-0.06-0.06
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
NebraskaB100.100.1047.0647.06-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.090.0976.6776.670.050.05
Incarnate WordSlnd0.080.0856.0056.000.010.01
CornellIvy0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
OklahomaB120.080.0878.1278.120.050.05
TulsaAmer0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
VermontAE0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
MaineAE0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
USC UpstateASun0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
OhioMAC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
ManhattanMAAC0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
BinghamtonAE0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
SyracuseACC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
AuburnSEC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0831.2531.25-0.03-0.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
IonaMAAC0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
MarylandB100.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
TCUB120.070.0736.3636.36-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.070.0780.0080.000.040.04
RadfordBSth0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
Virginia TechACC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.060.0626.9226.92-0.03-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0682.1482.140.040.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0687.1087.100.040.04
YaleIvy0.060.0677.7877.780.030.03
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
BradleyMVC0.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
NortheasternCAA0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
WoffordSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
UMBCAE0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
BucknellPat0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
LehighPat0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
UMass LowellAE0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
KentuckySEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
LouisvilleACC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
MercerSC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0511.1111.11-0.04-0.04
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
HartfordAE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.050.0544.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
LibertyBSth0.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
WisconsinB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
KansasB120.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
North DakotaBSky0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
UC IrvineBW0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
MinnesotaB100.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0322.8622.86-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
FurmanSC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
IndianaB100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
IUPUISum0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Texas TechB120.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
TroySB0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.020.0229.1729.17-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
ArizonaP120.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.020.0244.1244.12-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00