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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Massachusetts

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:80.0
Current RPI:80
Expected SOS:51
Current SOS:51
Current Record:17-15
Expected Record:17-15
Current Conf Record:10-9
Expected Conf Record:10-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:46
Expected OOC SOS:5



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-1580.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Massachusetts.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Siena (261.0)MAACH95-87W100%0.0
11-16Boston College (165.0)ACCN62-71W100%0.0
11-18Manhattan (168.0)MAACH77-68W100%0.0
11-22Notre Dame (16.0)ACCN81-68L0%0.0
11-23Florida St. (110.0)ACCN75-69W100%0.0
11-26Northeastern (86.0)CAAH79-54W100%0.0
11-29Harvard (52.0)IvyA75-73L0%0.0
12-2LSU (57.0)SECA82-60L0%0.0
12-7Florida Gulf Coast (137.0)ASunN75-84L0%0.0
12-13Canisius (180.0)MAACH75-58W100%0.0
12-20Providence (22.0)BEA85-65L0%0.0
12-23BYU (36.0)WCCA77-71L0%0.0
12-30Iona (51.0)MAACH87-82W100%0.0
1-3St. Bonaventure (121.0)A10H55-69L0%0.0
1-7La Salle (101.0)A10A65-71W100%0.0
1-11George Mason (221.0)A10A62-66W100%0.0
1-14Davidson (35.0)A10H63-71L0%0.0
1-17Rhode Island (66.0)A10H60-56W100%0.0
1-21Saint Joseph's (187.0)A10A62-56L0%0.0
1-29Dayton (32.0)A10H66-64W100%0.0
1-31Saint Louis (272.0)A10A56-60W100%0.0
2-4Fordham (238.0)A10A72-78W100%0.0
2-8La Salle (101.0)A10H66-59W100%0.0
2-11St. Bonaventure (121.0)A10A53-55W100%0.0
2-14Duquesne (222.0)A10H82-74W100%0.0
2-18Rhode Island (66.0)A10A75-59L0%0.0
2-21VCU (15.0)A10A78-72L0%0.0
2-25Saint Joseph's (187.0)A10H71-82L0%0.0
2-28Fordham (238.0)A10H82-74W100%0.0
3-4Richmond (56.0)A10H53-56L0%0.0
3-7George Washington (84.0)A10A87-65L0%0.0
3-12La Salle (101.0)A10N69-76L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Massachusetts's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Massachusetts's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Massachusetts.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MassachusettsA1026.1426.1452.8252.821.471.47
La SalleA105.295.2953.3353.330.350.35
FordhamA103.843.8432.1432.14-1.37-1.37
Saint Joseph'sA103.823.8237.9337.93-0.92-0.92
Rhode IslandA103.823.8271.4371.431.641.64
St. BonaventureA103.803.8058.6258.620.650.65
DaytonA102.392.3978.1278.121.341.34
VCUA102.272.2773.5373.531.071.07
George MasonA102.232.2327.5927.59-1.00-1.00
DavidsonA102.232.2375.8675.861.151.15
George WashingtonA102.222.2262.5062.500.550.55
DuquesneA102.212.2137.9337.93-0.53-0.53
RichmondA102.212.2158.0658.060.360.36
Saint LouisA102.192.1933.3333.33-0.73-0.73
ManhattanMAAC1.861.8661.2961.290.420.42
SienaMAAC1.831.8336.6736.67-0.49-0.49
IonaMAAC1.821.8278.7978.791.051.05
CanisiusMAAC1.761.7655.1755.170.180.18
Boston CollegeACC1.711.7141.9441.94-0.28-0.28
ProvidenceBE1.691.6965.6265.620.530.53
Florida St.ACC1.681.6853.1253.120.110.11
NortheasternCAA1.661.6669.7069.700.660.66
Notre DameACC1.661.6684.8584.851.161.16
HarvardIvy1.611.6173.0873.080.740.74
Florida Gulf CoastASun1.591.5964.2964.290.450.45
BYUWCC1.561.5670.9770.970.660.66
LSUSEC1.561.5667.7467.740.550.55
MaristMAAC0.320.3221.8821.88-0.18-0.18
NiagaraMAAC0.300.3026.6726.67-0.14-0.14
MonmouthMAAC0.300.3054.5554.550.030.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.290.2947.0647.06-0.02-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.270.2750.0050.000.000.00
VirginiaACC0.270.2790.6290.620.220.22
PittsburghACC0.250.2556.2556.250.030.03
FairfieldMAAC0.220.2222.5822.58-0.12-0.12
VillanovaBE0.210.2194.1294.120.190.19
RiderMAAC0.200.2065.6265.620.060.06
Georgia TechACC0.190.1938.7138.71-0.04-0.04
DrexelCAA0.190.1937.9337.93-0.05-0.05
PennIvy0.180.1832.1432.14-0.06-0.06
ClemsonACC0.170.1751.6151.610.010.01
Miami FLACC0.170.1763.6463.640.050.05
VermontAE0.160.1656.6756.670.020.02
UMass LowellAE0.150.1539.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.150.1540.0040.00-0.03-0.03
BinghamtonAE0.150.1516.6716.67-0.10-0.10
North CarolinaACC0.140.1468.5768.570.050.05
CornellIvy0.140.1441.3841.38-0.02-0.02
BrownIvy0.130.1337.9337.93-0.03-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.120.1293.9493.940.110.11
St. John'sBE0.120.1264.5264.520.040.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.120.1227.2727.27-0.06-0.06
TempleAmer0.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
VanderbiltSEC0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
DelawareCAA0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Wake ForestACC0.120.1240.6240.62-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.120.1287.8887.880.090.09
HofstraCAA0.120.1260.6160.610.020.02
TowsonCAA0.120.1235.4835.48-0.03-0.03
YaleIvy0.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
DartmouthIvy0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
StetsonASun0.100.1021.4321.43-0.06-0.06
HowardMEAC0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.100.1052.9452.940.010.01
OhioMAC0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.100.1077.4277.420.050.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
SyracuseACC0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
William & MaryCAA0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
USC UpstateASun0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
North FloridaASun0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
BuffaloMAC0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
XavierBE0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.070.0741.1841.18-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
PortlandWCC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0790.9190.910.060.06
FloridaSEC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0768.9768.970.030.03
TennesseeSEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
LouisvilleACC0.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
AmericanPat0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
ColgatePat0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
NavyPat0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0644.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
LipscombASun0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
KansasB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
MarylandB100.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
AlbanyAE0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
PacificWCC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.050.05100.00100.000.050.05
RutgersB100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
ButlerBE0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
CreightonBE0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.050.000.00-0.05-0.05
ElonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Arizona St.P120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
BryantNEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
HoustonAmer0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
MontanaBSky0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
NJITind0.030.0356.0056.000.000.00
OklahomaB120.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UMKCWAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0260.7160.710.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
HawaiiBW0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
High PointBSth0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
IUPUISum0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MaineAE0.020.0210.0010.00-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.020.0272.4172.410.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
StanfordP120.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Texas TechB120.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
USCP120.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.020.0259.2659.260.000.00
ColoradoP120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.020.0258.8258.820.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.020.0229.6329.63-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
VMISC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
WoffordSC0.020.0281.2581.250.010.01
BelmontOVC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
OregonP120.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
ToledoMAC0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00