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Through games of Dec 5, 2016.


Massachusetts

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:107.1
Current RPI:83
Expected SOS:98
Current SOS:102
Current Record:5-2
Expected Record:18-13
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-1
Current OOC Record:5-2
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:106
Expected OOC SOS:177



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-519.50.02%
25-632.20.10%
24-736.60.44%
23-844.31.58%
22-954.14.20%
21-1065.98.11%
20-1178.713.29%
19-1293.016.82%
18-13108.217.94%
17-14123.716.00%
16-15141.210.62%
15-16157.76.38%
14-17176.23.01%
13-18193.61.10%
12-19211.80.30%
11-20230.80.05%
10-21262.00.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Massachusetts.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11UMass Lowell (264.6)AEH90-76W100%0.0
11-14Mississippi (119.9)SECA90-88L0%0.0
11-17Temple (53.0)AmerH70-67W100%0.0
11-20Holy Cross (199.3)PatA60-68W100%0.0
11-26Harvard (204.9)IvyH70-66W100%0.0
11-30Wagner (212.6)NECH62-55W100%0.0
12-3UCF (45.0)AmerH62-65L0%0.0
12-8Pacific (171.7)WCCH0-073%7.2
12-10Providence (73.3)BEA0-026%-7.9
12-13North Carolina A&T (343.1)MEACH0-098%24.0
12-17Kennesaw St. (308.9)ASunH0-093%17.5
12-22Rider (193.7)MAACH0-079%9.8
12-28Georgia St. (106.1)SBA0-043%-2.2
12-30St. Bonaventure (59.5)A10H0-045%-1.6
1-4George Mason (189.0)A10A0-057%2.2
1-7VCU (43.3)A10A0-021%-9.5
1-11Dayton (38.2)A10H0-034%-5.1
1-15Rhode Island (36.6)A10A0-019%-10.3
1-18Saint Joseph's (126.3)A10H0-065%4.7
1-21Fordham (220.5)A10H0-076%8.5
1-25Saint Louis (287.6)A10A0-079%9.5
1-28George Mason (189.0)A10H0-076%8.4
2-1La Salle (94.6)A10A0-038%-3.6
2-7Rhode Island (36.6)A10H0-037%-4.1
2-11Saint Joseph's (126.3)A10A0-045%-1.6
2-15Duquesne (227.9)A10A0-061%3.3
2-18Davidson (68.6)A10H0-048%-0.8
2-23George Washington (189.3)A10A0-055%1.6
2-26La Salle (94.6)A10H0-059%2.7
3-1Richmond (176.4)A10H0-067%5.3
3-4St. Bonaventure (59.5)A10A0-026%-7.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Massachusetts's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Massachusetts's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Massachusetts.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MassachusettsA1028.5626.1165.5256.068.863.16
Saint Joseph'sA100.893.9042.8645.37-0.13-0.36
Rhode IslandA100.003.8762.5069.050.001.48
La SalleA100.453.8466.6755.770.150.44
St. BonaventureA100.003.7971.4370.780.001.58
George MasonA100.003.7662.5047.860.00-0.16
FordhamA100.712.3250.0042.070.00-0.37
George WashingtonA100.712.3255.5641.610.08-0.39
Saint LouisA100.002.3228.5723.87-0.00-1.21
DaytonA100.002.2571.4373.450.001.06
VCUA100.002.2375.0072.810.001.02
DuquesneA100.002.2344.4442.18-0.00-0.35
RichmondA100.002.2350.0048.780.00-0.05
DavidsonA100.002.2371.4363.540.000.60
TempleAmer7.141.8085.7166.715.100.60
RiderMAAC0.601.7557.1452.010.090.07
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.001.720.0021.46-0.00-0.98
Holy CrossPat7.861.7042.8648.59-1.12-0.05
ProvidenceBE0.001.7075.0056.190.000.21
PacificWCC0.001.7042.8647.02-0.00-0.10
Kennesaw St.ASun0.001.6925.0031.17-0.00-0.64
HarvardIvy7.591.6925.0048.81-3.79-0.04
WagnerNEC7.541.6940.0056.94-1.510.23
UCFAmer7.141.6983.3374.944.760.84
MississippiSEC7.141.6771.4346.933.06-0.10
UMass LowellAE7.741.6425.0039.86-3.87-0.33
Georgia St.SB0.001.6150.0060.870.000.35
PennIvy0.450.2833.3356.59-0.150.04
HoustonAmer0.000.2285.7177.980.000.12
VillanovaBE0.510.21100.0084.840.510.15
South FloridaAmer0.000.1957.1432.990.00-0.06
MercerSC0.000.1742.8647.76-0.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.1687.5082.460.000.10
MaristMAAC0.400.1644.4434.68-0.04-0.05
MemphisAmer0.450.1675.0055.960.220.02
BrownIvy0.000.1455.5647.040.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.1425.0063.18-0.000.04
HowardMEAC0.000.1416.6744.42-0.00-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.1433.3332.88-0.00-0.05
St. Francis PANEC0.000.1433.3339.82-0.00-0.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.1437.5033.64-0.00-0.05
NJITASun0.400.1450.0049.830.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.600.1442.8644.97-0.09-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.1471.4367.900.000.05
UMBCAE0.000.1480.0054.500.000.01
DrexelCAA0.000.1450.0040.540.00-0.03
BucknellPat0.000.1366.6766.310.000.04
East CarolinaAmer0.000.1377.7849.540.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.000.1337.5044.24-0.00-0.02
New HampshireAE0.890.1357.1458.830.130.02
SienaMAAC0.000.1333.3349.96-0.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.000.1242.8642.65-0.00-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.120.0020.36-0.00-0.07
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.1111.1148.45-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.1157.1471.900.000.05
JacksonvilleASun0.000.1162.5060.410.000.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1122.2241.58-0.00-0.02
VermontAE0.000.1162.5071.360.000.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.110.0034.63-0.00-0.03
MonmouthMAAC0.450.1175.0070.290.220.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.510.1175.0048.000.26-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.1155.5647.990.00-0.00
LehighPat0.000.1142.8666.59-0.000.04
HartfordAE0.000.1122.2226.36-0.00-0.05
PepperdineWCC0.000.1142.8633.72-0.00-0.04
ArmyPat0.000.1142.8650.22-0.000.00
LafayettePat0.000.1142.8635.20-0.00-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.000.1125.0035.06-0.00-0.03
MaineAE0.000.1114.2924.18-0.00-0.05
Penn St.B100.000.1166.6746.480.00-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.1042.8645.99-0.00-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.450.1025.0034.33-0.22-0.03
St. John'sBE0.000.1044.4436.52-0.00-0.03
BryantNEC0.000.0925.0047.73-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.000.0928.5729.87-0.00-0.04
YaleIvy0.000.0942.8663.37-0.000.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0916.6739.71-0.00-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.400.0971.4355.810.170.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0912.5025.29-0.00-0.04
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0916.6729.76-0.00-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0957.1429.850.00-0.03
LipscombASun0.000.0812.5033.13-0.00-0.03
StetsonASun0.510.0825.0026.79-0.26-0.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0816.6729.78-0.00-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.000.0871.4358.010.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0812.5031.17-0.00-0.03
Little RockSB0.000.0866.6761.540.000.02
AmericanPat0.600.0814.2931.33-0.43-0.03
FairfieldMAAC0.600.0871.4359.900.260.02
PortlandWCC0.000.0857.1450.740.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.08100.0089.440.000.06
AuburnSEC0.000.0885.7157.380.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.450.0887.5076.180.330.04
HamptonMEAC0.000.0814.2942.75-0.00-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0812.5030.18-0.00-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.000.0857.1451.760.000.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0857.1442.470.00-0.01
AlbanyAE0.450.0842.8661.12-0.060.02
BinghamtonAE0.000.0850.0043.390.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0842.8627.99-0.00-0.04
BYUWCC0.000.0862.5067.030.000.03
FloridaSEC0.000.0887.5075.360.000.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0875.0051.170.000.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0850.0037.680.00-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0842.8655.39-0.000.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0857.1450.560.000.00
SMUAmer0.000.0866.6766.700.000.03
TulaneAmer0.000.0812.5023.71-0.00-0.04
CreightonBE0.450.08100.0076.680.450.04
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0828.5737.13-0.00-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.450.08100.0078.710.450.04
ColgatePat0.000.0812.5029.43-0.00-0.03
DePaulBE0.000.0866.6735.740.00-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0614.2938.31-0.00-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0625.0038.85-0.00-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0642.8643.69-0.00-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0671.4363.370.000.02
North FloridaASun0.000.0612.5035.01-0.00-0.02
TroySB0.000.0642.8636.17-0.00-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.000.0644.4441.39-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0022.51-0.00-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0662.5067.400.000.02
DelawareCAA0.000.0650.0041.890.00-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0612.5037.47-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0657.1471.550.000.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0650.0066.260.000.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.510.0566.6761.650.170.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0583.3380.140.000.03
VMISC0.000.050.0016.68-0.00-0.04
Georgia TechACC0.000.0557.1436.140.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0525.0031.92-0.00-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.450.050.0026.80-0.45-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0550.0046.010.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0550.0071.050.000.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0550.0064.320.000.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0533.3352.15-0.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0571.4356.410.000.01
DukeACC0.000.0588.8978.500.000.03
GonzagaWCC0.000.05100.0092.290.000.05
HofstraCAA0.000.0562.5043.210.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0560.0067.730.000.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.0557.1454.410.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0520.0021.78-0.00-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0571.4358.580.000.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0525.0046.05-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0533.3352.72-0.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0514.2931.46-0.00-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.000.0537.5031.16-0.00-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0585.7153.730.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0533.3332.43-0.00-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.000.0528.5738.23-0.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0537.5047.92-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.000.0542.8653.19-0.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0583.3377.140.000.03
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0585.7174.850.000.03
William & MaryCAA0.000.0533.3346.02-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.400.0533.3348.14-0.13-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.450.050.0022.65-0.45-0.03
BaylorB120.000.05100.0076.260.000.03
ButlerBE0.000.05100.0074.430.000.03
Florida St.ACC0.450.0587.5065.300.330.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0557.1452.030.000.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0557.1464.070.000.01
KentuckySEC0.000.0587.5082.830.000.03
LSUSEC0.000.0571.4349.210.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0575.0066.420.000.02
NavyPat0.000.0525.0037.38-0.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.000.0571.4354.780.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0540.0041.15-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.450.0575.0054.990.220.01
XavierBE0.000.0587.5070.960.000.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.0350.0044.810.00-0.00
StanfordP120.710.0366.6758.230.240.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0013.57-0.00-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0312.5033.53-0.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0375.0066.390.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0371.4372.990.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0350.0051.000.000.00
IowaB100.000.0344.4438.90-0.00-0.01
MichiganB100.000.0375.0066.440.000.01
PurdueB100.000.0375.0075.290.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0385.7169.610.000.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0350.0043.470.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.0362.5052.110.000.00
Arizona St.P120.000.0362.5040.600.00-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0333.3336.70-0.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0371.4351.460.000.00
ClemsonACC0.000.0371.4354.990.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0017.13-0.00-0.02
KansasB120.000.0387.5075.540.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0357.1444.820.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0362.5058.520.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.030.0035.97-0.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0387.5081.950.000.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0357.1459.300.000.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0375.0066.180.000.01
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0077.540.000.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.030.0019.16-0.00-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0371.4356.310.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0337.5034.91-0.00-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0328.5733.59-0.00-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.400.0371.4370.760.170.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0366.6740.560.00-0.01
Green BayHorz0.000.0342.8651.59-0.000.00
IndianaB100.400.0387.5074.500.300.01
MarylandB100.000.0387.5059.220.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0342.8631.01-0.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.400.030.0025.42-0.40-0.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0377.7872.080.000.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.510.0342.8637.07-0.07-0.01
RutgersB100.000.0385.7145.270.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.030.0022.40-0.00-0.01
SeattleWAC0.510.0316.6738.78-0.34-0.01
Texas TechB120.000.0387.5061.690.000.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0350.0054.480.000.00
UCLAP120.000.03100.0086.530.000.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.0375.0054.510.000.00
WyomingMWC0.000.0366.6754.150.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.0385.7166.250.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.030.0023.86-0.00-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0342.8647.13-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.0320.0022.08-0.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0328.5731.08-0.00-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0357.1450.090.000.00
IllinoisB100.000.0362.5050.590.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0314.2943.88-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.000.0387.5058.670.000.00
Miami FLACC0.000.0375.0066.550.000.01
MontanaBSky0.450.0325.0048.76-0.22-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.0350.0061.230.000.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0387.5068.530.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0375.0049.490.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.000.0362.5056.380.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0350.0042.070.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0357.1449.200.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0025.06-0.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.450.0362.5062.160.110.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0371.4366.220.000.01
UABCUSA0.000.0350.0059.930.000.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0357.1467.190.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.0387.5078.760.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0385.7163.030.000.01
West VirginiaB120.450.0385.7183.370.320.02
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0375.0086.690.000.02