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Through games of Nov 18, 2017.


Massachusetts

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:194.1
Current RPI:178
Expected SOS:104
Current SOS:167
Current Record:1-1
Expected Record:13-18
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-2
Current OOC Record:1-1
Expected OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC RPI:221
Expected OOC SOS:170



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-852.00.01%
22-958.00.02%
21-1061.00.10%
20-1178.00.25%
19-1289.90.66%
18-13106.52.06%
17-14124.34.53%
16-15142.37.50%
15-16160.111.76%
14-17178.715.52%
13-18197.517.01%
12-19215.015.84%
11-20230.511.26%
10-21247.37.54%
9-22261.63.90%
8-23274.41.35%
7-24288.00.52%
6-25294.90.13%
5-26316.70.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Massachusetts.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10UMass Lowell (285.2)AEH74-69W100%0.0
11-12Harvard (130.4)IvyA70-67L0%0.0
11-19Niagara (180.5)MAACH0-067%5.3
11-21Western Carolina (294.1)SCH0-089%14.7
11-24Minnesota (39.3)B10N0-011%-14.7
11-25BYU (78.8)WCCN0-026%-7.7
11-29Quinnipiac (307.4)MAACA0-068%5.6
12-2South Carolina (64.8)SECA0-012%-14.0
12-6Holy Cross (207.8)PatH0-074%7.5
12-9Providence (42.3)BEH0-020%-10.3
12-16Georgia (93.5)SECH0-031%-5.9
12-20Georgia St. (96.0)SBH0-047%-0.9
12-22Maine (337.2)AEH0-095%19.9
12-30St. Bonaventure (90.6)A10A0-023%-9.0
1-3George Mason (191.3)A10H0-060%2.9
1-6Dayton (77.6)A10A0-020%-9.9
1-10La Salle (107.5)A10H0-048%-0.7
1-14Saint Joseph's (94.6)A10H0-039%-3.2
1-17Rhode Island (26.4)A10A0-09%-15.9
1-20Saint Louis (146.5)A10H0-052%0.5
1-24La Salle (107.5)A10A0-029%-6.7
1-27Fordham (245.6)A10A0-050%0.1
1-30Rhode Island (26.4)A10H0-020%-9.9
2-3Dayton (77.6)A10H0-037%-3.9
2-10Saint Joseph's (94.6)A10A0-022%-9.2
2-14George Washington (163.9)A10H0-056%1.9
2-17Davidson (46.9)A10A0-013%-13.5
2-21VCU (92.7)A10H0-033%-5.3
2-24George Mason (191.3)A10A0-040%-3.1
2-28Richmond (219.9)A10A0-046%-1.2
3-3Duquesne (253.1)A10H0-070%6.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Massachusetts's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Massachusetts's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Massachusetts.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MassachusettsA1035.4226.1550.0037.820.00-6.37
Rhode IslandA100.003.9050.0072.310.001.74
Saint Joseph'sA100.003.8666.6758.790.000.68
La SalleA100.003.8475.0050.430.000.03
DaytonA100.003.8466.6761.470.000.88
George MasonA100.003.8275.0048.830.00-0.09
FordhamA100.002.3433.3335.700.00-0.67
St. BonaventureA100.002.3150.0053.600.000.17
Saint LouisA100.002.3166.6753.560.000.16
George WashingtonA100.002.2966.6745.960.00-0.18
VCUA100.002.2866.6766.570.000.76
DavidsonA100.002.25100.0069.430.000.88
DuquesneA100.002.25100.0048.250.00-0.08
RichmondA100.002.250.0029.400.00-0.93
MaineAE0.001.780.0013.760.00-1.29
NiagaraMAAC0.001.7550.0052.490.000.09
MinnesotaB100.001.73100.0071.120.000.73
ProvidenceBE0.001.7275.0064.040.000.48
HarvardIvy25.001.720.0052.37-25.000.08
Holy CrossPat4.171.70100.0049.624.17-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.001.7025.0032.510.00-0.59
South CarolinaSEC0.001.6775.0057.900.000.26
UMass LowellAE25.001.67100.0044.3125.00-0.19
GeorgiaSEC0.001.67100.0052.660.000.09
Georgia St.SB0.001.6750.0065.590.000.52
BYUWCC0.001.6466.6767.110.000.56
Western CarolinaSC0.001.640.0021.770.00-0.93
VermontAE0.000.2366.6774.120.000.11
PennIvy0.000.2333.3349.350.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.000.230.0061.460.000.05
AuburnSEC0.000.2266.6750.670.000.00
BrownIvy0.000.20100.0039.270.00-0.04
New HampshireAE0.000.200.0048.110.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.000.20100.0056.600.000.03
ManhattanMAAC4.170.20100.0055.284.170.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.170.0051.010.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.000.1725.0038.080.00-0.04
IonaMAAC0.000.1725.0059.770.000.03
AlabamaSEC0.000.17100.0061.320.000.04
VillanovaBE0.000.17100.0082.960.000.11
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.1633.3348.640.00-0.00
Boston UniversityPat0.000.150.0047.690.00-0.01
AlbanyAE0.000.14100.0072.510.000.06
CornellIvy0.000.1433.3334.680.00-0.04
HartfordAE0.000.1433.3326.430.00-0.07
South AlabamaSB0.000.1433.3345.780.00-0.01
VMISC0.000.1433.3327.450.00-0.06
Stony BrookAE0.000.140.0047.400.00-0.01
SienaMAAC0.000.140.0037.060.00-0.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.14100.0051.080.000.00
LafayettePat0.000.140.0021.970.00-0.08
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.14100.0088.360.000.11
CanisiusMAAC0.000.1433.3346.330.00-0.01
MaristMAAC6.250.140.0023.83-6.25-0.07
Seton HallBE0.000.14100.0067.950.000.05
RiderMAAC0.000.1466.6755.210.000.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.1233.3350.350.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.000.120.0033.700.00-0.04
WoffordSC0.000.120.0039.740.00-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.120.0028.720.00-0.05
UMBCAE0.000.120.0052.900.000.01
FloridaSEC0.000.11100.0080.230.000.07
MercerSC0.000.1175.0076.250.000.06
TennesseeSEC0.000.11100.0048.350.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.11100.0071.560.000.05
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.11100.0064.470.000.03
GeorgetownBE0.000.11100.0058.070.000.02
St. John'sBE0.000.11100.0054.590.000.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.1166.6754.900.000.01
MarquetteBE0.000.1150.0050.870.000.00
Miami FLACC0.000.11100.0074.500.000.05
NorthwesternB100.000.1175.0055.040.000.01
Penn St.B100.000.11100.0060.400.000.02
YaleIvy0.000.0925.0054.930.000.01
KentuckySEC0.000.0975.0071.830.000.04
NevadaMWC0.000.09100.0078.910.000.05
ChattanoogaSC0.000.090.0038.990.00-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0966.6768.790.000.03
Loyola MDPat0.000.090.0038.210.00-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.090.0064.600.000.03
LSUSEC0.000.09100.0046.080.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.000.09100.0053.790.000.01
ArmyPat0.000.0850.0053.620.000.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0833.3357.840.000.01
WagnerNEC0.000.0866.6749.940.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0875.0045.290.00-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.080.0037.310.00-0.02
DrexelCAA0.000.0833.3339.360.00-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.08100.0071.180.000.04
James MadisonCAA0.000.080.0031.810.00-0.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.080.0022.610.00-0.04
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0866.6759.740.000.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0833.3335.150.00-0.02
ButlerBE0.000.0875.0052.360.000.00
XavierBE0.000.08100.0078.990.000.05
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0866.6756.400.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0650.0049.480.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.06100.0078.160.000.03
VirginiaACC0.000.06100.0074.140.000.03
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0633.3342.010.00-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0625.0040.490.00-0.01
ColgatePat0.000.0650.0050.310.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0666.6773.200.000.03
FurmanSC0.000.0650.0059.440.000.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0650.0048.410.00-0.00
LehighPat0.000.0666.6751.580.000.00
Little RockSB0.000.060.0037.050.00-0.01
NavyPat0.000.0650.0052.870.000.00
SamfordSC0.000.0633.3347.970.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.000.0633.3346.090.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.000.0633.3330.460.00-0.02
ToledoMAC0.000.06100.0064.120.000.02
TroySB0.000.0633.3346.410.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.060.0056.560.000.01
Washington St.P120.000.06100.0041.780.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.060.0030.350.00-0.02
ClemsonACC0.000.06100.0054.960.000.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0633.3347.670.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0666.6757.890.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0675.0072.950.000.03
Texas A&MSEC0.000.06100.0071.010.000.02
Texas TechB120.000.06100.0062.630.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0666.6749.990.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.0625.0035.000.00-0.02
WinthropBSth0.000.060.0055.380.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.06100.0061.010.000.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0625.0045.730.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.000.06100.0054.140.000.00
AkronMAC0.000.06100.0060.370.000.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0633.3345.540.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0675.0056.120.000.01
OhioMAC0.000.0633.3348.480.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0650.0039.640.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0650.0066.710.000.02
MarylandB100.000.05100.0071.740.000.02
USC UpstateASun0.000.050.0039.010.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.0566.6766.970.000.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0533.3353.190.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0533.3352.000.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.050.0040.830.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.05100.0068.200.000.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.05100.0063.590.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.05100.0066.990.000.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.050.0049.250.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0533.3335.210.00-0.02
HoustonAmer0.000.0566.6753.670.000.00
RutgersB100.000.05100.0046.880.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.05100.0059.250.000.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.050.0030.910.00-0.02
CreightonBE0.000.05100.0067.460.000.02
DePaulBE0.000.0533.3331.290.00-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.05100.0086.180.000.04
IndianaB100.000.0533.3341.220.00-0.01
IowaB100.000.05100.0058.250.000.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0550.0034.730.00-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.050.0018.970.00-0.03
NebraskaB100.000.0566.6740.070.00-0.01
PacificWCC0.000.050.0033.520.00-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.000.050.0031.910.00-0.02
PortlandWCC0.000.050.0029.710.00-0.02
PurdueB100.000.05100.0085.360.000.04
San DiegoWCC0.000.05100.0052.950.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.050.0042.340.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0333.3335.310.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.030.0045.640.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0350.0069.320.000.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0350.0050.360.000.00
BryantNEC0.000.030.0030.230.00-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.030.0035.130.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.03100.0082.350.000.02
DelawareCAA0.000.0350.0048.680.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0333.3351.560.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.030.0044.950.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.030.0057.520.000.00
High PointBSth0.000.0333.3347.540.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.030.0044.500.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0350.0068.280.000.01
Kansas St.B120.000.03100.0062.930.000.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0333.3360.630.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0350.0059.190.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0333.3346.880.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.000.0350.0060.130.000.01
NJITASun0.000.0333.3333.210.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0333.3336.410.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.03100.0062.240.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.030.0046.000.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.000.03100.0078.750.000.02
ColoradoP120.000.03100.0052.860.000.00
FIUCUSA0.000.030.0024.970.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.0032.770.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.000.030.0036.690.00-0.01
TexasB120.000.03100.0063.830.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.030.0051.690.000.00
WyomingMWC0.000.03100.0057.360.000.00
CampbellBSth0.000.030.0051.410.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0333.3333.580.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.000.030.0029.290.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0018.400.00-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.030.0048.070.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.000.030.0046.080.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.03100.0039.920.00-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0350.0066.530.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.030.0042.850.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.000.0366.6742.260.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.000.0333.3350.150.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.030.0036.490.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0333.3359.680.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0375.0061.940.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0366.6771.200.000.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0375.0071.560.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.030.0021.590.00-0.01
DrakeMVC0.000.0350.0035.740.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.030.0032.130.00-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0038.960.00-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.030.0028.170.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.03100.0059.240.000.00
LamarSlnd0.000.03100.0065.580.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0028.770.00-0.01
MichiganB100.000.03100.0061.710.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0350.0077.820.000.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0366.6748.280.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.000.03100.0059.870.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.030.0023.260.00-0.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0333.3334.560.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.030.0036.070.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.0333.3333.620.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0050.360.000.00
UtahP120.000.03100.0067.160.000.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0350.0050.190.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0350.0060.430.000.01
WashingtonP120.000.0350.0046.810.00-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.0366.6766.020.000.01