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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.


Massachusetts

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:57.0
Current RPI:57
Expected SOS:72
Current SOS:72
Current Record:21-11
Expected Record:21-11
Current Conf Record:11-8
Expected Conf Record:11-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-0
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:42
Expected OOC SOS:71



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-1157.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Massachusetts.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Harvard (93.0)IvyH67-64W100%0.0
11-15Providence (91.0)BEN77-75W100%0.0
11-16North Carolina St. (33.0)ACCN76-94L0%0.0
11-18Tennessee (59.0)SECN69-83L0%0.0
11-28Siena (295.0)MAACA63-64W100%0.0
12-1Miami FL (4.0)ACCH62-75L0%0.0
12-4Northeastern (159.0)CAAA66-72W100%0.0
12-15Elon (174.0)SCH78-73W100%0.0
12-19Ohio (67.0)MACH85-76W100%0.0
12-22East Carolina (100.0)CUSAH88-81W100%0.0
12-29Northern Illinois (333.0)MACA59-64W100%0.0
1-2Miami OH (258.0)MACA69-70W100%0.0
1-5Eastern Michigan (239.0)MACH75-61W100%0.0
1-10St. Louis (15.0)A10A70-62L0%0.0
1-13Fordham (228.0)A10A73-77W100%0.0
1-17Duquesne (229.0)A10H79-66W100%0.0
1-19George Washington (147.0)A10H76-79L0%0.0
1-27Richmond (92.0)A10H70-65W100%0.0
1-30La Salle (46.0)A10A60-61W100%0.0
2-2Charlotte (68.0)A10A66-65L0%0.0
2-6Rhode Island (201.0)A10H81-53W100%0.0
2-9Saint Joseph's (82.0)A10H80-62W100%0.0
2-14Virginia Commonwealth (24.0)A10A86-68L0%0.0
2-16Temple (42.0)A10H82-83L0%0.0
2-20St. Bonaventure (139.0)A10A99-94L0%0.0
2-23Dayton (114.0)A10H76-66W100%0.0
3-2Xavier (87.0)A10A72-77W100%0.0
3-7Butler (22.0)A10H62-73L0%0.0
3-9Rhode Island (201.0)A10A66-75W100%0.0
3-14George Washington (147.0)A10N77-72W100%0.0
3-15Temple (42.0)A10N74-79W100%0.0
3-16Virginia Commonwealth (24.0)A10N71-62L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Massachusetts's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Massachusetts's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Massachusetts.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MassachusettsA1026.0126.0164.7464.747.677.67
Virginia CommonwealthA103.633.6375.0075.001.811.81
TempleA103.583.5873.3373.331.671.67
George WashingtonA103.583.5842.8642.86-0.51-0.51
Rhode IslandA103.573.5729.6329.63-1.46-1.46
CharlotteA102.192.1964.5264.520.640.64
ButlerA102.172.1775.0075.001.081.08
La SalleA102.162.1672.4172.410.970.97
Saint Joseph'sA102.142.1460.0060.000.430.43
St. LouisA102.132.1381.2581.251.331.33
DaytonA102.122.1256.6756.670.280.28
XavierA102.112.1156.6756.670.280.28
St. BonaventureA102.112.1146.4346.43-0.15-0.15
RichmondA102.112.1158.0658.060.340.34
FordhamA102.092.0923.3323.33-1.12-1.12
DuquesneA102.042.0427.5927.59-0.91-0.91
Miami OHMAC1.741.7427.5927.59-0.78-0.78
Eastern MichiganMAC1.721.7243.3343.33-0.23-0.23
OhioMAC1.721.7275.0075.000.860.86
Northern IllinoisMAC1.711.7114.2914.29-1.22-1.22
North Carolina St.ACC1.661.6669.7069.700.660.66
Miami FLACC1.661.6681.2581.251.041.04
SienaMAAC1.641.6425.8125.81-0.79-0.79
ProvidenceBE1.621.6256.6756.670.220.22
NortheasternCAA1.611.6164.5264.520.470.47
HarvardIvy1.611.6169.2369.230.620.62
TennesseeSEC1.591.5961.2961.290.360.36
East CarolinaCUSA1.591.5956.0056.000.190.19
ElonSC1.591.5965.5265.520.490.49
Western MichiganMAC0.250.2561.2961.290.060.06
BuffaloMAC0.230.2337.5037.50-0.06-0.06
Bowling GreenMAC0.230.2336.6736.67-0.06-0.06
Kent St.MAC0.230.2359.3859.380.040.04
DukeACC0.210.2184.3884.380.150.15
MemphisCUSA0.210.2188.2488.240.160.16
PennsylvaniaIvy0.210.2129.0329.03-0.09-0.09
Boston CollegeACC0.200.2048.4848.48-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.180.1843.7543.75-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.180.1833.3333.33-0.06-0.06
Ball St.MAC0.180.1848.2848.28-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.180.1858.8258.820.030.03
AkronMAC0.180.1880.6580.650.110.11
North CarolinaACC0.170.1769.7069.700.070.07
ToledoMAC0.150.1553.5753.570.010.01
George MasonCAA0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
VillanovaBE0.150.1559.3859.380.030.03
Virginia TechACC0.150.1540.6240.62-0.03-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.140.1462.5062.500.040.04
Florida St.ACC0.140.1454.5554.550.010.01
BrownIvy0.140.1444.4444.44-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.130.1359.2659.260.020.02
Georgia St.CAA0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
NC GreensboroSC0.130.1324.1424.14-0.07-0.07
ConnecticutBE0.130.1366.6766.670.040.04
IonaMAAC0.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
WoffordSC0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
CanisiusMAAC0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
FairfieldMAAC0.120.1255.8855.880.010.01
SyracuseBE0.120.1274.2974.290.060.06
DelawareCAA0.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
NC AshevilleBSth0.120.1244.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCAA0.120.1216.6716.67-0.08-0.08
Georgia TechACC0.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
UABCUSA0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SC0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.110.1113.7913.79-0.08-0.08
Norfolk St.MEAC0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
Boston UniversityAE0.110.1158.6258.620.020.02
Seton HallBE0.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.100.1028.1228.12-0.05-0.05
Loyola MDMAAC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Notre DameBE0.100.1073.5373.530.050.05
GeorgiaSEC0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.100.1019.3519.35-0.06-0.06
Penn St.B100.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
NiagaraMAAC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
William & MaryCAA0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
NC WilmingtonCAA0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
BelmontOVC0.090.0980.0080.000.060.06
StetsonASun0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
ClemsonACC0.090.0941.9441.94-0.02-0.02
CornellIvy0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Southern MethodistCUSA0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.080.0838.4638.46-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.080.0829.6329.63-0.03-0.03
Central FloridaCUSA0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
YaleIvy0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
St. Mary'sWCC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Virginia Military InstBSth0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
RutgersBE0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
PittsburghBE0.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
CincinnatiBE0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
DavidsonSC0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
MaineAE0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
KentuckySEC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
MississippiSEC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
OaklandSum0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
TowsonCAA0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
DetroitHorz0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
LehighPat0.070.0768.9768.970.030.03
MissouriSEC0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
Wichita St.MVC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
WinthropBSth0.070.0739.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Southern MississippiCUSA0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
TulsaCUSA0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
The CitadelSC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
DePaulBE0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonSC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
FurmanSC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
Kansas St.B120.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
SamfordSC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
ColgatePat0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticSB0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleBE0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0528.0028.00-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
WashingtonP120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
AlbanyAE0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
New Orleansind0.050.0518.1818.18-0.03-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Texas St.WAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0510.0010.00-0.04-0.04
RadfordBSth0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
St. Peter'sMAAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
WagnerNEC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
MichiganB100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
HamptonMEAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
MarylandACC0.050.0564.7164.710.010.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
Western KentuckySB0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
HoustonCUSA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Texas El PasoCUSA0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
TulaneCUSA0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
CaliforniaP120.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
BucknellPat0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
GramblingSWAC0.030.030.000.00-0.03-0.03
HartfordAE0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
AmericanPat0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
ColoradoP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
CreightonMVC0.030.0379.4179.410.010.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0357.6957.690.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
MonmouthNEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.030.0348.0048.00-0.00-0.00
PacificBW0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
South FloridaBE0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Southern CaliforniaP120.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
FloridaSEC0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
LamarSlnd0.020.029.689.68-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Louisiana St.SEC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
MinnesotaB100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
NavyPat0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSlnd0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.020.0293.7593.750.020.02
HawaiiBW0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
IllinoisB100.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
IndianaB100.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
IUPUISum0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.027.147.14-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
North TexasSB0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
PortlandWCC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
South Carolina UpstateASun0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.020.0256.2556.250.000.00