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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Massachusetts

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:23.0
Current RPI:23
Expected SOS:38
Current SOS:38
Current Record:24-8
Expected Record:24-8
Current Conf Record:11-7
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:13-1
Expected OOC Record:13-1
Expected OOC RPI:7
Expected OOC SOS:25



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-823.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Massachusetts.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Boston College (207.0)ACCN73-86W100%0.0
11-12LSU (83.0)SECH92-90W100%0.0
11-17Youngstown St. (237.0)HorzH85-69W100%0.0
11-21Nebraska (48.0)B10N96-90W100%0.0
11-22New Mexico (12.0)MWCN65-81W100%0.0
11-24Clemson (79.0)ACCN56-62W100%0.0
12-3Eastern Michigan (86.0)MACA57-69W100%0.0
12-7BYU (31.0)WCCN105-96W100%0.0
12-14Northern Illinois (217.0)MACH80-54W100%0.0
12-18Ohio (87.0)MACA71-83W100%0.0
12-21Florida St. (54.0)ACCN60-55L0%0.0
12-28Providence (40.0)BEH69-67W100%0.0
1-4Miami OH (161.0)MACH73-65W100%0.0
1-8Saint Joseph's (32.0)A10H66-62W100%0.0
1-11St. Bonaventure (89.0)A10H73-68W100%0.0
1-15George Mason (164.0)A10A87-88W100%0.0
1-18Elon (162.0)SCA74-84W100%0.0
1-22Richmond (75.0)A10A58-55L0%0.0
1-26Fordham (226.0)A10H90-52W100%0.0
1-29St. Bonaventure (89.0)A10A78-65L0%0.0
2-1Saint Joseph's (32.0)A10A73-68L0%0.0
2-5La Salle (98.0)A10H79-67W100%0.0
2-9Rhode Island (155.0)A10A68-73W100%0.0
2-12George Mason (164.0)A10H80-91L0%0.0
2-15George Washington (29.0)A10A61-67W100%0.0
2-21VCU (13.0)A10H80-75W100%0.0
2-26Rhode Island (155.0)A10H70-67W100%0.0
3-1Dayton (43.0)A10A86-79L0%0.0
3-5Duquesne (187.0)A10A74-78W100%0.0
3-9Saint Louis (27.0)A10H62-64L0%0.0
3-13Rhode Island (155.0)A10N65-61W100%0.0
3-14George Washington (29.0)A10N85-77L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Massachusetts's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Massachusetts's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Massachusetts.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MassachusettsA1026.1426.1475.6875.6813.4213.42
Rhode IslandA105.255.2546.4346.43-0.37-0.37
Saint Joseph'sA103.773.7774.1974.191.821.82
George MasonA103.723.7234.4834.48-1.15-1.15
St. BonaventureA103.693.6953.3353.330.250.25
George WashingtonA103.673.6776.6776.671.961.96
VCUA102.282.2878.7978.791.311.31
DaytonA102.232.2368.7568.750.840.84
FordhamA102.232.2333.3333.33-0.74-0.74
La SalleA102.222.2250.0050.000.000.00
RichmondA102.182.1856.2556.250.270.27
Saint LouisA102.152.1580.0080.001.291.29
DuquesneA102.152.1542.8642.86-0.31-0.31
OhioMAC1.711.7168.7568.750.640.64
Northern IllinoisMAC1.711.7146.6746.67-0.11-0.11
ProvidenceBE1.691.6969.7069.700.670.67
Eastern MichiganMAC1.691.6958.0658.060.270.27
LSUSEC1.691.6961.2961.290.380.38
Miami OHMAC1.681.6844.8344.83-0.17-0.17
Florida St.ACC1.661.6658.0658.060.270.27
Boston CollegeACC1.661.6623.3323.33-0.88-0.88
ClemsonACC1.641.6464.5264.520.480.48
NebraskaB101.591.5963.3363.330.420.42
BYUWCC1.561.5668.7568.750.590.59
ElonSC1.561.5657.1457.140.220.22
New MexicoMWC1.561.5684.3884.381.071.07
Youngstown St.Horz1.561.5642.8642.86-0.22-0.22
BuffaloMAC0.250.2564.2964.290.070.07
Kent St.MAC0.230.2348.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.220.2235.4835.48-0.06-0.06
Central MichiganMAC0.220.2227.5927.59-0.10-0.10
ToledoMAC0.220.2281.2581.250.140.14
Western MichiganMAC0.200.2070.9770.970.080.08
Miami FLACC0.200.2051.5251.520.010.01
AkronMAC0.200.2063.6463.640.050.05
Georgia TechACC0.200.2048.4848.48-0.01-0.01
MarylandACC0.190.1951.6151.610.010.01
CreightonBE0.190.1978.7978.790.110.11
Ball St.MAC0.170.1710.7110.71-0.14-0.14
Wake ForestACC0.170.1751.5251.520.010.01
PittsburghACC0.150.1573.5373.530.070.07
UMass LowellAE0.150.1533.3333.33-0.05-0.05
DukeACC0.150.1576.4776.470.080.08
SyracuseACC0.150.1584.3884.380.100.10
MaineAE0.150.1517.8617.86-0.09-0.09
SienaMAAC0.150.1546.8846.88-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.150.1582.3582.350.090.09
DetroitHorz0.130.1336.6736.67-0.03-0.03
OaklandHorz0.130.1335.4835.48-0.04-0.04
St. Francis PANEC0.130.1332.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Notre DameACC0.130.1346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.120.1228.5728.57-0.05-0.05
IonaMAAC0.120.1268.7568.750.050.05
GeorgiaSEC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.120.1248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.120.1229.0329.03-0.05-0.05
St. John'sBE0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
KentuckySEC0.120.1270.5970.590.050.05
VillanovaBE0.120.1287.5087.500.090.09
MarquetteBE0.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
New HampshireAE0.100.1017.2417.24-0.07-0.07
Penn St.B100.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
DavidsonSC0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Southern IllinoisMVC0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.100.1025.9325.93-0.05-0.05
PurdueB100.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
Ohio St.B100.100.1073.5373.530.050.05
UNC AshevilleBSth0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
BrownIvy0.100.1051.8551.850.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
North CarolinaACC0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
MaristMAAC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Boston UniversityPat0.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
GeorgetownBE0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.090.0981.8281.820.060.06
Appalachian St.SC0.080.0819.2319.23-0.05-0.05
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
Green BayHorz0.080.0877.7877.780.040.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
FurmanSC0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
South DakotaSum0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
UMBCAE0.080.0827.5927.59-0.03-0.03
ArizonaP120.080.0888.2488.240.060.06
SMUAmer0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
Southern MissCUSA0.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
WoffordSC0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
MichiganB100.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
DrexelCAA0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
AuburnSEC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
WagnerNEC0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
MinnesotaB100.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
UABCUSA0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
San Jose St.MWC0.070.0717.2417.24-0.05-0.05
DelawareCAA0.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
FloridaSEC0.070.0794.1294.120.060.06
HofstraCAA0.070.0730.3030.30-0.03-0.03
XavierBE0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0787.1087.100.050.05
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
Utah St.MWC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
ButlerBE0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Seton HallBE0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Georgia SouthernSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UICHorz0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
SamfordSC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
VMIBSth0.050.0555.5655.560.010.01
AmericanPat0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0586.2186.210.040.04
IllinoisB100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
IndianaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
LamarSlnd0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Oregon St.P120.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.050.0570.3770.370.020.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.03-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
James MadisonCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
USCP120.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.050.05100.00100.000.050.05
AlabamaSEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.050.053.703.70-0.05-0.05
Kansas St.B120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0521.2121.21-0.03-0.03
RadfordBSth0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
RutgersAmer0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0541.1841.18-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
YaleIvy0.050.0551.8551.850.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
PacificWCC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Washington St.P120.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
WyomingMWC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
BelmontOVC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
WinthropBSth0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
DePaulBE0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
ColoradoP120.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
NJITind0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Arizona St.P120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
ColgatePat0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
HartfordAE0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
IowaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
LehighPat0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSlnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0234.6234.62-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.020.0248.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0230.7730.77-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
CaliforniaP120.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.020.0246.1546.15-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
MercerASun0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.020.0259.2659.260.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0230.3030.30-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
StanfordP120.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
TexasB120.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
UtahP120.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.020.0260.7160.710.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00