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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


UTEP

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:222.0
Current RPI:222
Expected SOS:204
Current SOS:204
Current Record:14-17
Expected Record:14-17
Current Conf Record:13-7
Expected Conf Record:13-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-7
Current OOC Record:1-10
Expected OOC Record:1-10
Expected OOC RPI:323
Expected OOC SOS:151



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-17222.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UTEP.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17Wake Forest (38.0)ACCN81-103L0%0.0
11-18Western Michigan (173.0)MACN85-75W100%0.0
11-20Mississippi St. (150.0)SECN61-54L0%0.0
11-23Southeastern Louisiana (248.0)SlndH56-72L0%0.0
12-3Northwestern St. (306.0)SlndH67-79L0%0.0
12-7New Mexico (86.0)MWCA78-77L0%0.0
12-13New Mexico St. (59.0)WACH68-79L0%0.0
12-17Northern Arizona (335.0)BSkyH74-76L0%0.0
12-21Maryland Eastern Shore (278.0)MEACH66-71L0%0.0
12-22UC Irvine (135.0)BWH57-62L0%0.0
12-30New Mexico St. (59.0)WACA79-70L0%0.0
1-1UTSA (264.0)CUSAA67-55L0%0.0
1-5Louisiana Tech (116.0)CUSAA64-44L0%0.0
1-7Southern Miss (331.0)CUSAA73-65L0%0.0
1-12FIU (338.0)CUSAH88-87W100%0.0
1-14Florida Atlantic (281.0)CUSAH66-65W100%0.0
1-21UTSA (264.0)CUSAH59-39W100%0.0
1-26Western Kentucky (226.0)CUSAA65-62L0%0.0
1-28Marshall (112.0)CUSAA68-91W100%0.0
2-2UAB (201.0)CUSAH63-59W100%0.0
2-4Middle Tennessee (34.0)CUSAH57-54W100%0.0
2-9Louisiana Tech (116.0)CUSAH61-62L0%0.0
2-11Southern Miss (331.0)CUSAH80-50W100%0.0
2-16North Texas (339.0)CUSAA71-77W100%0.0
2-18Rice (167.0)CUSAA71-79W100%0.0
2-23Florida Atlantic (281.0)CUSAA55-60W100%0.0
2-25FIU (338.0)CUSAA76-90W100%0.0
3-2Old Dominion (138.0)CUSAH61-62L0%0.0
3-4Charlotte (240.0)CUSAH74-67W100%0.0
3-9Rice (167.0)CUSAN86-76W100%0.0
3-10Middle Tennessee (34.0)CUSAN82-56L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UTEP's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UTEP's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UTEP.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UTEPCUSA26.2526.2542.5842.58-3.90-3.90
UTSACUSA4.004.0037.9337.93-0.97-0.97
Louisiana TechCUSA3.993.9965.5265.521.241.24
RiceCUSA3.983.9868.9768.971.511.51
Middle TennesseeCUSA3.973.9790.3290.323.203.20
Southern MissCUSA3.963.9622.2222.22-2.20-2.20
Florida AtlanticCUSA3.903.9030.7730.77-1.50-1.50
FIUCUSA3.883.8818.5218.52-2.45-2.45
New Mexico St.WAC3.303.3082.1482.142.122.12
MarshallCUSA2.462.4657.5857.580.370.37
UABCUSA2.412.4151.6151.610.080.08
North TexasCUSA2.362.3622.2222.22-1.31-1.31
Western KentuckyCUSA2.322.3245.1645.16-0.22-0.22
CharlotteCUSA2.322.3242.8642.86-0.33-0.33
Old DominionCUSA2.302.3060.0060.000.460.46
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd1.781.7844.8344.83-0.18-0.18
Northwestern St.Slnd1.741.7433.3333.33-0.58-0.58
New MexicoMWC1.721.7253.3353.330.110.11
Mississippi St.SEC1.701.7048.3948.39-0.05-0.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC1.691.6935.4835.48-0.49-0.49
UC IrvineBW1.671.6756.2556.250.210.21
Wake ForestACC1.641.6458.0658.060.260.26
Northern ArizonaBSky1.611.6123.3323.33-0.86-0.86
Western MichiganMAC1.611.6150.0050.000.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.220.2251.7251.720.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.210.2142.8642.86-0.03-0.03
ToledoMAC0.200.2050.0050.000.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.190.1967.8667.860.070.07
UMKCWAC0.190.1946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.180.1832.2632.26-0.06-0.06
Nicholls St.Slnd0.170.1737.0437.04-0.04-0.04
LamarSlnd0.170.1751.7251.720.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.170.1776.6776.670.090.09
Houston BaptistSlnd0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
HawaiiBW0.160.1644.8344.83-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.160.1610.3410.34-0.13-0.13
South AlabamaSB0.160.1640.0040.00-0.03-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.160.1667.7467.740.060.06
Colorado St.MWC0.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
Central ArkansasSlnd0.140.1425.0025.00-0.07-0.07
Texas TechB120.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.130.1328.1228.12-0.06-0.06
Fresno St.MWC0.130.1360.0060.000.030.03
Long Beach St.BW0.130.1340.6240.62-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.130.1375.7675.760.060.06
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.110.1136.0036.00-0.03-0.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.110.1132.0032.00-0.04-0.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.110.1160.7160.710.020.02
Texas St.SB0.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.110.1168.9768.970.040.04
SeattleWAC0.110.1137.0437.04-0.03-0.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.110.1124.1424.14-0.06-0.06
Alabama A&MSWAC0.110.116.906.90-0.09-0.09
Jackson St.SWAC0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Oregon St.P120.110.1112.9012.90-0.08-0.08
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
CaliforniaP120.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
Boise St.MWC0.100.1062.0762.070.020.02
UNLVMWC0.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.100.1023.3323.33-0.06-0.06
Virginia TechACC0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
OhioMAC0.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
PittsburghACC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Boston CollegeACC0.100.1028.1228.12-0.04-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.103.333.33-0.09-0.09
Georgia St.SB0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
UC DavisBW0.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.100.1073.3373.330.050.05
MississippiSEC0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.090.0919.2319.23-0.06-0.06
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.090.0960.7160.710.020.02
ElonCAA0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Miami FLACC0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
MissouriSEC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
TulaneAmer0.080.0819.3519.35-0.05-0.05
Ohio St.B100.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
Air ForceMWC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
NevadaMWC0.080.0882.3582.350.050.05
Utah St.MWC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
AlabamaSEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.070.0735.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0753.5753.570.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0784.3884.380.050.05
VCUA100.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0787.5087.500.060.06
BelmontOVC0.070.0777.7877.780.040.04
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.070.0722.2222.22-0.04-0.04
HofstraCAA0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
South FloridaAmer0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.060.0636.6736.67-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.060.0627.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Arizona St.P120.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
FloridaSEC0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
IdahoBSky0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
WyomingMWC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
RichmondA100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
ArizonaP120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
AuburnSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
DukeACC0.050.0577.1477.140.030.03
George WashingtonA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0518.5218.52-0.03-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
OklahomaB120.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Little RockSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
OaklandHorz0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
UCLAP120.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Weber St.BSky0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
AmericanPat0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
KentuckySEC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
LehighPat0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
MemphisAmer0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
MichiganB100.030.0368.5768.570.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
RadfordBSth0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
TexasB120.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
UMBCAE0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
XavierBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0229.4129.41-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01