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Through games of Feb 22, 2017.


UTEP

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:261.3
Current RPI:262
Expected SOS:257
Current SOS:241
Current Record:10-15
Expected Record:12-17
Current Conf Record:9-5
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-8
Current OOC Record:1-10
Expected OOC Record:1-10
Expected OOC RPI:331
Expected OOC SOS:203



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-15232.96.53%
13-16245.926.81%
12-17261.337.96%
11-18279.123.87%
10-19298.34.82%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UTEP.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17Wake Forest (42.2)ACCN81-103L0%0.0
11-18Western Michigan (190.4)MACN85-75W100%0.0
11-20Mississippi St. (143.0)SECN61-54L0%0.0
11-23Southeastern Louisiana (245.3)SlndH56-72L0%0.0
12-3Northwestern St. (324.1)SlndH67-79L0%0.0
12-7New Mexico (83.2)MWCA78-77L0%0.0
12-13New Mexico St. (56.2)WACH68-79L0%0.0
12-17Northern Arizona (339.2)BSkyH74-76L0%0.0
12-21Maryland Eastern Shore (301.7)MEACH66-71L0%0.0
12-22UC Irvine (151.4)BWH57-62L0%0.0
12-30New Mexico St. (56.2)WACA79-70L0%0.0
1-1UTSA (301.2)CUSAA67-55L0%0.0
1-5Louisiana Tech (114.0)CUSAA64-44L0%0.0
1-7Southern Miss (336.3)CUSAA73-65L0%0.0
1-12FIU (336.8)CUSAH88-87W100%0.0
1-14Florida Atlantic (278.5)CUSAH66-65W100%0.0
1-21UTSA (301.2)CUSAH59-39W100%0.0
1-26Western Kentucky (218.0)CUSAA65-62L0%0.0
1-28Marshall (124.6)CUSAA68-91W100%0.0
2-2UAB (182.6)CUSAH63-59W100%0.0
2-4Middle Tennessee (35.5)CUSAH57-54W100%0.0
2-9Louisiana Tech (114.0)CUSAH61-62L0%0.0
2-11Southern Miss (336.3)CUSAH80-50W100%0.0
2-16North Texas (327.6)CUSAA71-77W100%0.0
2-18Rice (168.2)CUSAA71-79W100%0.0
2-23Florida Atlantic (278.5)CUSAA0-049%-0.2
2-25FIU (336.8)CUSAA0-055%1.2
3-2Old Dominion (131.9)CUSAH0-039%-3.0
3-4Charlotte (235.4)CUSAH0-065%4.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UTEP's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UTEP's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UTEP.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UTEPCUSA26.3026.2436.3638.57-7.17-6.00
UTSACUSA4.634.1734.7834.93-1.41-1.26
Louisiana TechCUSA4.634.1766.6768.071.541.51
Southern MissCUSA4.594.1321.7420.42-2.59-2.44
FIUCUSA2.564.1116.6717.79-1.70-2.65
Florida AtlanticCUSA2.554.1031.8231.59-0.93-1.51
New Mexico St.WAC4.113.5381.8282.812.612.32
RiceCUSA2.522.4866.6765.770.840.78
North TexasCUSA2.512.4726.0926.80-1.20-1.15
Middle TennesseeCUSA2.592.4488.4688.371.991.87
UABCUSA2.592.4453.8555.060.200.25
CharlotteCUSA0.592.4141.6742.65-0.10-0.35
Old DominionCUSA0.552.3861.5462.930.130.62
Western KentuckyCUSA2.552.3846.1545.85-0.20-0.20
MarshallCUSA2.542.3856.0056.600.310.31
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd2.251.9146.1546.54-0.17-0.13
New MexicoMWC2.171.8555.5654.940.240.18
Northwestern St.Slnd2.151.8423.8125.69-1.13-0.90
Mississippi St.SEC2.131.8250.0048.990.00-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.111.8128.0031.35-0.93-0.68
UC IrvineBW2.081.7950.0052.860.000.10
Wake ForestACC2.001.7555.5654.280.220.15
Northern ArizonaBSky2.001.7220.0020.49-1.20-1.02
Western MichiganMAC2.001.7244.0045.18-0.24-0.17
Utah ValleyWAC0.240.2534.7836.63-0.07-0.07
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.240.2252.1753.700.010.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.210.1934.7833.41-0.06-0.06
HawaiiBW0.200.1848.0047.45-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.160.1873.0873.880.070.09
Colorado St.MWC0.230.1865.3864.150.070.05
LSUSEC0.150.1833.3331.80-0.05-0.06
South CarolinaSEC0.150.1870.3770.540.060.07
ToledoMAC0.230.1848.1549.49-0.01-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.160.1627.5928.17-0.07-0.07
LamarSlnd0.210.1650.0052.050.000.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.210.1669.5771.400.080.07
UMKCWAC0.200.1648.0046.99-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.200.1542.8645.36-0.03-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.160.1544.0042.77-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.190.1577.7876.390.110.08
Chicago St.WAC0.170.1312.0011.80-0.13-0.10
Grand CanyonWAC0.170.1365.3865.420.050.04
SeattleWAC0.080.1339.1337.81-0.02-0.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.080.1328.0028.37-0.04-0.06
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.160.1260.8762.050.040.03
San DiegoWCC0.160.1240.7440.12-0.03-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.160.1220.0022.21-0.10-0.07
Texas St.SB0.120.1254.1753.210.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.160.1236.3636.47-0.04-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.160.1240.7442.89-0.03-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.160.124.005.36-0.14-0.11
Jackson St.SWAC0.160.1237.5042.38-0.04-0.02
Texas TechB120.160.1260.7159.310.030.02
San Diego St.MWC0.120.1257.6958.100.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.080.1225.0026.38-0.04-0.06
Oregon St.P120.120.1214.2913.58-0.08-0.09
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.1248.0047.41-0.00-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.160.1230.7734.71-0.06-0.04
CaliforniaP120.150.1266.6766.210.050.04
Cal PolyBW0.150.1225.0027.75-0.08-0.05
Fresno St.MWC0.150.1257.6957.750.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.150.1228.0028.91-0.07-0.05
OhioMAC0.150.1268.0068.550.050.04
Boise St.MWC0.150.1264.0064.920.040.03
UNLVMWC0.150.1135.7134.80-0.04-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.130.1022.7323.17-0.07-0.05
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.120.0958.3359.220.020.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.120.0931.8233.09-0.04-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.040.0959.0960.070.010.02
Air ForceMWC0.120.0934.6233.56-0.04-0.03
Miami FLACC0.080.0970.3767.240.030.03
Ohio St.B100.080.0953.5752.340.010.00
TulaneAmer0.120.0918.5218.47-0.07-0.06
MissouriSEC0.120.0925.9325.77-0.06-0.04
Florida St.ACC0.120.0978.5776.210.070.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0925.9327.44-0.04-0.04
ElonCAA0.040.0955.5656.900.000.01
HowardMEAC0.040.0919.2321.44-0.02-0.05
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.120.0944.4443.17-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.120.0975.0077.120.060.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.110.090.003.38-0.11-0.08
Boston CollegeACC0.110.0932.1430.40-0.04-0.03
PittsburghACC0.110.0953.5750.750.010.00
Virginia TechACC0.070.0970.3769.250.030.03
WashingtonP120.110.0933.3332.52-0.04-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.070.0943.4843.27-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.070.0960.0059.400.010.02
MississippiSEC0.110.0960.7159.870.020.02
NevadaMWC0.110.0978.5778.260.060.05
UC DavisBW0.080.0956.0055.930.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.110.0942.3143.98-0.02-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.110.0988.8989.350.090.07
Arizona St.P120.080.0646.4344.09-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.040.0642.8642.57-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.080.0655.5656.300.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.040.0614.8115.43-0.03-0.04
South FloridaAmer0.040.0626.9225.66-0.02-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.040.0659.2659.740.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0651.8551.660.000.00
FloridaSEC0.040.0682.1480.600.020.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0652.1749.960.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.040.0662.9661.340.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.040.0653.8551.910.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0637.5039.90-0.02-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0620.0020.88-0.05-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.0637.5040.16-0.02-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0656.0055.900.010.01
NebraskaB100.080.0644.0042.70-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.040.0633.3334.84-0.01-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.040.0657.6955.370.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.040.0650.0049.370.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.040.0630.7732.11-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.040.0629.6328.76-0.02-0.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.040.0632.1431.91-0.01-0.02
George WashingtonA100.080.0651.8551.210.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.080.0646.1546.03-0.01-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0646.1546.92-0.01-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.070.0648.0047.16-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.080.0664.2963.820.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0681.4881.510.050.04
VillanovaBE0.070.0689.6688.760.060.05
AlabamaSEC0.070.0661.5459.750.020.01
ArizonaP120.070.0689.2987.680.060.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0622.2224.27-0.04-0.03
AuburnSEC0.070.0660.7159.670.020.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.070.0650.0049.820.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.070.0651.8553.680.000.00
DukeACC0.070.0678.5776.170.040.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.070.0677.7877.990.040.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.040.0664.0065.600.010.02
IdahoBSky0.040.0647.8350.77-0.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.070.0616.0016.87-0.05-0.04
LouisvilleACC0.000.0678.5778.520.000.03
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0644.0046.00-0.01-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0651.7249.530.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.080.0663.6464.970.020.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.080.0629.1731.48-0.03-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.040.0640.9144.15-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.040.0659.2659.930.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.040.0634.7836.95-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.080.0650.0049.560.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0642.8643.32-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.080.0612.0013.36-0.06-0.04
TennesseeSEC0.070.0651.8552.250.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0657.6956.380.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.040.0626.0928.38-0.02-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.070.0612.5014.87-0.06-0.04
VanderbiltSEC0.040.0653.5751.920.000.00
VCUA100.040.0682.1479.370.020.03
WyomingMWC0.040.0653.8553.510.000.00
BelmontOVC0.070.0680.0079.920.040.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0629.6331.16-0.03-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0651.8551.270.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0320.0021.74-0.03-0.02
OklahomaB120.050.0333.3333.59-0.02-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0325.0027.77-0.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0353.8552.600.000.00
DrexelCAA0.040.0328.5729.06-0.02-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0346.4343.89-0.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.040.0330.0029.22-0.02-0.01
MarylandB100.000.0377.7876.990.000.02
NiagaraMAAC0.040.0331.0331.60-0.02-0.01
RutgersB100.040.0342.8642.33-0.01-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.0350.0049.750.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.040.0376.0076.570.020.02
AmericanPat0.040.0325.0025.07-0.02-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.040.0340.7440.19-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.040.0350.0050.440.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.040.0325.0026.71-0.02-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.040.0325.9326.05-0.02-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.040.0341.6743.49-0.01-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.040.0355.5655.100.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.040.0330.7729.92-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.040.0364.2963.090.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0344.0045.06-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.040.0351.8551.810.000.00
OaklandHorz0.040.0374.0773.500.020.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.040.0333.3334.37-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.040.0328.0029.86-0.02-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.040.0359.2662.730.010.01
UCLAP120.040.0388.8988.050.030.02
UMBCAE0.040.0361.5460.470.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.040.0386.2186.330.030.02
ArkansasSEC0.040.0375.0071.920.020.01
BucknellPat0.040.0373.3373.730.020.01
ChattanoogaSC0.040.0365.3866.650.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.040.0388.8987.450.030.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.040.0346.1547.50-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.040.0371.4372.700.020.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.0326.0925.97-0.00-0.01
DaytonA100.040.0380.7779.440.020.02
EvansvilleMVC0.040.0342.8643.65-0.01-0.00
FurmanSC0.040.0364.2964.510.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.040.0353.8554.930.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.040.0355.5652.750.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.040.0382.1481.630.020.02
KansasB120.040.0389.2987.840.030.02
KentuckySEC0.040.0382.1481.760.020.02
LehighPat0.040.0359.2660.160.010.01
Little RockSB0.040.0344.0043.41-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.040.0366.6763.170.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.040.0325.0026.25-0.02-0.01
MontanaBSky0.040.0350.0050.340.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.040.0346.1546.49-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.040.0382.1480.660.020.02
NorthwesternB100.040.0371.4368.340.020.01
Notre DameACC0.040.0375.0074.370.020.01
PacificWCC0.040.0332.1432.21-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.040.0338.4640.55-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0366.6766.780.000.01
San Jose St.MWC0.040.0350.0046.860.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.000.0342.8642.05-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.040.0358.6257.910.010.00
TexasB120.040.0335.7134.84-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0364.2961.960.000.01
TroySB0.040.0353.8552.820.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.040.0369.2368.790.010.01
VirginiaACC0.040.0366.6767.600.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.040.0360.8760.770.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.040.0322.2222.75-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.000.0352.0053.050.000.00
XavierBE0.040.0364.2964.300.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.040.0330.7730.10-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.040.0322.2222.38-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.040.0335.7135.66-0.01-0.01