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Through games of Jan 21, 2018.


UTEP

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:283.4
Current RPI:320
Expected SOS:200
Current SOS:275
Current Record:6-12
Expected Record:10-19
Current Conf Record:2-5
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-8
Current OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC RPI:267
Expected OOC SOS:143



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-13188.00.01%
15-14206.00.06%
14-15221.50.77%
13-16236.52.96%
12-17252.29.23%
11-18267.319.58%
10-19282.226.63%
9-20297.024.10%
8-21310.012.09%
7-22321.44.19%
6-23329.80.37%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UTEP.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Boise St. (39.0)MWCN56-58L0%0.0
11-17South Carolina (70.8)SECN56-80L0%0.0
11-19Appalachian St. (266.2)SBN76-72L0%0.0
11-25New Mexico St. (43.1)WACA72-63L0%0.0
11-27Lamar (226.9)SlndH52-66L0%0.0
11-30New Mexico St. (43.1)WACH60-80L0%0.0
12-2New Mexico (157.1)MWCH88-76W100%0.0
12-9Washington St. (171.2)P12H76-69W100%0.0
12-19Incarnate Word (338.0)SlndH72-66W100%0.0
12-21Howard (331.8)MEACH69-56W100%0.0
12-22North Dakota St. (167.4)SumH51-63L0%0.0
12-28North Texas (217.4)CUSAH62-63L0%0.0
12-30Rice (321.9)CUSAH80-62W100%0.0
1-4Southern Miss (223.2)CUSAA85-75L0%0.0
1-6Louisiana Tech (159.7)CUSAA97-88L0%0.0
1-11Florida Atlantic (239.8)CUSAH66-73L0%0.0
1-13FIU (287.9)CUSAH72-68W100%0.0
1-20UTSA (248.7)CUSAA65-61L0%0.0
1-25UAB (126.6)CUSAA0-011%-13.4
1-27Middle Tennessee (32.7)CUSAA0-07%-16.2
2-1Western Kentucky (45.3)CUSAH0-021%-8.9
2-3Marshall (101.3)CUSAH0-040%-2.9
2-10UTSA (248.7)CUSAH0-057%2.0
2-15Charlotte (301.7)CUSAA0-050%-0.0
2-17Old Dominion (73.6)CUSAA0-09%-14.6
2-22Louisiana Tech (159.7)CUSAH0-040%-2.7
2-24Southern Miss (223.2)CUSAH0-064%4.1
3-1Rice (321.9)CUSAA0-055%1.4
3-3North Texas (217.4)CUSAA0-033%-4.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UTEP's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UTEP's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UTEP.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UTEPCUSA26.5826.2522.5027.78-14.62-11.66
UTSACUSA3.264.1737.5037.20-0.81-1.07
RiceCUSA3.164.1411.7617.33-2.42-2.71
Louisiana TechCUSA3.014.1250.0053.470.000.29
North TexasCUSA3.094.1241.1843.93-0.55-0.50
Southern MissCUSA3.014.1137.5036.12-0.75-1.14
New Mexico St.WAC5.693.5181.2582.983.562.31
FIUCUSA3.022.4837.5036.85-0.76-0.65
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.322.4572.2274.070.141.18
UABCUSA0.322.4561.1163.260.070.65
Florida AtlanticCUSA2.942.4433.3335.28-0.98-0.72
Old DominionCUSA0.322.3978.9576.280.191.26
MarshallCUSA0.152.3968.4263.760.060.66
Western KentuckyCUSA0.152.3968.4270.540.060.98
CharlotteCUSA0.322.3923.5324.74-0.17-1.21
New MexicoMWC3.241.9747.3750.24-0.170.01
LamarSlnd2.881.8046.6753.16-0.190.11
Incarnate WordSlnd2.861.798.3320.96-2.39-1.04
Boise St.MWC2.851.7877.7876.171.580.93
South CarolinaSEC2.861.7558.8250.250.500.01
Appalachian St.SB2.781.7229.4134.91-1.14-0.52
HowardMEAC2.781.7211.1128.27-2.16-0.75
North Dakota St.Sum2.781.7241.1848.40-0.49-0.06
Washington St.P122.781.7250.0042.870.00-0.25
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.330.2980.0078.850.200.17
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.150.2545.0045.03-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.330.2227.7838.14-0.15-0.05
Houston BaptistSlnd0.170.205.8819.35-0.15-0.12
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.170.207.6923.28-0.14-0.11
Utah ValleyWAC0.240.1966.6766.020.080.06
James MadisonCAA0.240.1825.0028.24-0.12-0.08
Texas St.SB0.240.1857.8950.210.040.00
Colorado St.MWC0.230.1845.0041.33-0.02-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.230.1860.0062.030.050.04
UNLVMWC0.220.1873.6865.260.100.05
UMKCWAC0.110.1621.0524.75-0.06-0.08
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.240.1629.4133.20-0.10-0.05
McNeese St.Slnd0.180.1628.5731.26-0.08-0.06
Grand CanyonWAC0.230.1670.0071.230.090.07
SeattleWAC0.230.1657.8954.500.040.01
South AlabamaSB0.240.1650.0045.870.00-0.01
USCP120.300.1571.4368.280.130.06
South FloridaAmer0.320.1535.0026.12-0.10-0.07
Mississippi St.SEC0.160.1572.2258.920.070.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.310.1550.0052.460.000.01
WyomingMWC0.220.1561.1156.830.050.02
New OrleansSlnd0.190.1337.5045.24-0.05-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.150.130.003.07-0.15-0.12
South DakotaSum0.160.1373.6872.380.080.06
Northwestern St.Slnd0.080.137.1414.82-0.07-0.09
DavidsonA100.230.1358.8261.450.040.03
Missouri St.MVC0.240.1270.0068.300.100.05
TroySB0.080.1235.2942.76-0.02-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.150.1252.6351.690.010.00
San DiegoWCC0.230.1263.1657.540.060.02
Arkansas St.SB0.160.1227.7831.11-0.07-0.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.170.1257.8966.260.030.04
NebraskaB100.160.1266.6759.820.050.02
OklahomaB120.160.1277.7867.910.090.04
Texas TechB120.160.1278.9571.810.090.05
MississippiSEC0.150.1252.6345.860.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.070.1237.5031.76-0.02-0.04
AuburnSEC0.000.1289.4777.000.000.06
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.1231.5832.72-0.03-0.04
Indiana St.MVC0.080.1244.4446.02-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.220.1258.8262.820.040.03
Utah St.MWC0.070.1245.0045.49-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.1052.9452.650.000.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.190.1043.7549.13-0.02-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.110.1050.0051.380.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.0910.5316.75-0.06-0.06
Miami FLACC0.150.0977.7870.480.090.04
TulsaAmer0.170.0955.0053.320.020.01
FloridaSEC0.110.0973.6871.560.050.04
IllinoisB100.150.0947.3744.27-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0925.0028.01-0.03-0.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.220.0921.0539.48-0.13-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.230.0990.4888.960.180.07
Florida A&MMEAC0.150.0910.0019.63-0.12-0.06
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.0955.5656.740.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.150.0966.6765.520.050.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.150.0983.3381.370.100.06
ArizonaP120.150.0980.0078.940.090.05
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0922.2228.590.00-0.04
GeorgetownBE0.150.0968.4254.070.060.01
Western MichiganMAC0.230.0952.9452.230.010.00
AlabamaSEC0.150.0968.4258.980.060.02
EvansvilleMVC0.140.0952.6347.520.01-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0915.7920.910.00-0.05
NevadaMWC0.140.0985.7182.090.100.06
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0943.7554.11-0.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.140.0966.6763.420.050.02
OregonP120.070.0965.0063.850.020.02
San Jose St.MWC0.070.0911.7612.81-0.05-0.06
ColoradoP120.140.0960.0053.720.030.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.190.0745.0049.29-0.02-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.0752.9455.030.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.180.0780.9583.260.110.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.180.0727.7829.10-0.08-0.03
DenverSum0.080.0633.3336.48-0.03-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.080.0673.6869.640.040.03
MichiganB100.080.0676.1970.740.040.03
North DakotaBSky0.150.0629.4134.76-0.06-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.080.0658.8257.140.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0630.0032.52-0.03-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0672.2272.980.030.03
UC IrvineBW0.150.0630.0039.93-0.06-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0642.8635.240.00-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0621.0523.51-0.05-0.03
StetsonASun0.160.0633.3336.93-0.05-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.150.0622.2227.33-0.08-0.03
BradleyMVC0.080.0665.0057.880.020.01
Little RockSB0.000.0622.2225.250.00-0.03
TowsonCAA0.090.0663.1665.970.020.02
UC DavisBW0.160.0658.8262.440.030.02
Iowa St.B120.150.0661.1147.220.03-0.00
AkronMAC0.080.0647.0644.91-0.00-0.01
VCUA100.080.0660.0059.700.020.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0616.6724.26-0.05-0.03
George MasonA100.070.0645.0041.30-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.080.0652.6343.110.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.0636.8444.11-0.02-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0638.8943.43-0.02-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.070.0650.0047.660.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.070.0642.1143.51-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.070.0663.1657.630.020.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0671.4374.660.000.03
Illinois St.MVC0.150.0647.3746.09-0.01-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0618.7536.820.00-0.02
RichmondA100.000.0631.5834.360.00-0.02
SMUAmer0.070.0670.0070.570.030.02
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0636.8435.57-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.070.0636.8431.12-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0666.6755.940.030.01
OhioMAC0.000.0647.0648.410.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.000.0657.8950.840.000.00
StanfordP120.070.0655.0050.370.010.00
TempleAmer0.080.0652.6351.740.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.080.0672.2268.930.030.02
UtahP120.070.0663.1659.710.020.01
WashingtonP120.070.0670.0061.440.030.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0664.7159.990.000.01
HoustonAmer0.110.0478.9572.990.060.02
DuquesneA100.090.0370.0058.090.030.01
MinnesotaB100.090.0363.6457.630.020.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.0341.1839.16-0.02-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.090.0355.0052.470.010.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.080.0370.5969.630.030.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0366.6765.640.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0342.1132.470.00-0.01
ElonCAA0.080.0352.6351.080.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0366.6765.370.030.01
HamptonMEAC0.080.0320.0041.73-0.05-0.01
HartfordAE0.080.0350.0045.930.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.000.0343.7549.230.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0326.6729.04-0.04-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0345.0047.07-0.01-0.00
North FloridaASun0.080.0331.5835.15-0.03-0.01
Ohio St.B100.080.0380.9576.520.050.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0368.4254.090.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0327.7827.100.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0342.1140.460.00-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0338.8935.37-0.02-0.01
AmericanPat0.070.0326.3228.11-0.03-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0372.2274.930.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.039.5217.900.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.030.009.090.00-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0346.6746.97-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.070.0345.0043.48-0.01-0.00
HawaiiBW0.070.0368.7563.990.030.01
IndianaB100.070.0357.8950.710.010.00
IowaB100.000.0347.6244.020.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0333.3333.770.00-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.0370.0068.220.030.01
LibertyBSth0.070.0350.0054.190.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0378.9574.190.040.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0365.0058.540.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0010.670.00-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0329.4139.630.00-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0370.5975.950.000.02
PennIvy0.070.0364.7162.720.020.01
PortlandWCC0.070.0327.7827.28-0.03-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0352.9460.220.000.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.070.0316.6724.45-0.05-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0327.7834.50-0.03-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0327.7831.71-0.03-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.070.0337.5033.78-0.02-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0335.2940.480.00-0.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0378.9576.130.000.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.0368.4264.200.000.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0344.4446.000.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0358.8249.760.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.080.0384.2173.240.050.01
DaytonA100.000.0347.3750.940.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0338.8944.080.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.070.0364.7166.850.020.01
Idaho St.BSky0.070.0343.7540.93-0.01-0.01
IUPUIHorz0.070.0327.7829.83-0.03-0.01
Kansas St.B120.070.0373.6862.720.030.01
KentuckySEC0.080.0373.6867.970.040.01
LSUSEC0.000.0361.1153.170.000.00
MarylandB100.070.0370.0065.250.030.01
MassachusettsA100.080.0350.0046.810.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.080.0366.6763.200.030.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0323.5328.690.00-0.01
PurdueB100.000.0390.4888.370.000.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0350.0051.640.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.0327.7840.970.00-0.01
TCUB120.070.0373.6865.600.030.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0326.3231.500.00-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.070.0357.8953.190.010.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0368.4263.960.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0321.0544.26-0.04-0.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0366.6767.700.000.01
UCLAP120.070.0365.0062.050.020.01
VillanovaBE0.000.0394.7490.310.000.02
WisconsinB100.000.0350.0046.300.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.080.0368.7563.690.030.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0368.4269.250.000.01
XavierBE0.000.0385.7180.080.000.02