UTEP

Conference:	CUSA
Expected RPI:	293.0
Current RPI:	293
Expected SOS:	218
Current SOS:	218
Current Record:	10-20
Expected Record:	10-20
Current Conf Record:	6-13
Expected Conf Record:	6-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-7
Current OOC Record:	4-7
Expected OOC Record:	4-7
Expected OOC RPI:	274
Expected OOC SOS:	175

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
10-20	293.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UTEP.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-16	Boise St. (50.0)	MWC	N	56-58	L	0%
11-17	South Carolina (90.0)	SEC	N	56-80	L	0%
11-19	Appalachian St. (250.0)	SB	N	76-72	L	0%
11-25	New Mexico St. (35.0)	WAC	A	72-63	L	0%
11-27	Lamar (230.0)	Slnd	H	52-66	L	0%
11-30	New Mexico St. (35.0)	WAC	H	60-80	L	0%
12-2	New Mexico (118.0)	MWC	H	88-76	W	100%
12-9	Washington St. (179.0)	P12	H	76-69	W	100%
12-19	Incarnate Word (347.0)	Slnd	H	72-66	W	100%
12-21	Howard (339.0)	MEAC	H	69-56	W	100%
12-22	North Dakota St. (210.0)	Sum	H	51-63	L	0%
12-28	North Texas (235.0)	CUSA	H	62-63	L	0%
12-30	Rice (328.0)	CUSA	H	80-62	W	100%
1-4	Southern Miss (207.0)	CUSA	A	85-75	L	0%
1-6	Louisiana Tech (192.0)	CUSA	A	97-88	L	0%
1-11	Florida Atlantic (275.0)	CUSA	H	66-73	L	0%
1-13	FIU (295.0)	CUSA	H	72-68	W	100%
1-20	UTSA (187.0)	CUSA	A	65-61	L	0%
1-25	UAB (155.0)	CUSA	A	85-78	L	0%
1-27	Middle Tennessee (33.0)	CUSA	A	81-50	L	0%
2-1	Western Kentucky (39.0)	CUSA	H	60-72	L	0%
2-3	Marshall (87.0)	CUSA	H	65-74	L	0%
2-10	UTSA (187.0)	CUSA	H	59-63	L	0%
2-15	Charlotte (323.0)	CUSA	A	86-87	W	100%
2-17	Old Dominion (78.0)	CUSA	A	82-33	L	0%
2-22	Louisiana Tech (192.0)	CUSA	H	74-72	W	100%
2-24	Southern Miss (207.0)	CUSA	H	73-44	W	100%
3-1	Rice (328.0)	CUSA	A	76-70	L	0%
3-3	North Texas (235.0)	CUSA	A	66-68	W	100%
3-7	UTSA (187.0)	CUSA	N	71-58	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UTEP's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

UTEP's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against UTEP.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
UTEP	CUSA	26.28	26.28	27.54	27.54	-11.81	-11.81
UTSA	CUSA	5.69	5.69	48.15	48.15	-0.21	-0.21
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	4.08	4.08	48.28	48.28	-0.14	-0.14
Southern Miss	CUSA	4.08	4.08	39.29	39.29	-0.87	-0.87
North Texas	CUSA	4.06	4.06	42.86	42.86	-0.58	-0.58
Rice	CUSA	4.02	4.02	14.81	14.81	-2.83	-2.83
New Mexico St.	WAC	3.38	3.38	82.14	82.14	2.18	2.18
Marshall	CUSA	2.47	2.47	68.75	68.75	0.92	0.92
FIU	CUSA	2.44	2.44	39.29	39.29	-0.52	-0.52
UAB	CUSA	2.41	2.41	56.67	56.67	0.32	0.32
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	2.41	2.41	75.86	75.86	1.24	1.24
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	2.39	2.39	29.63	29.63	-0.97	-0.97
Old Dominion	CUSA	2.38	2.38	77.42	77.42	1.31	1.31
Western Kentucky	CUSA	2.38	2.38	68.75	68.75	0.89	0.89
Charlotte	CUSA	2.30	2.30	18.52	18.52	-1.45	-1.45
New Mexico	MWC	1.89	1.89	56.25	56.25	0.24	0.24
Lamar	Slnd	1.74	1.74	51.85	51.85	0.06	0.06
Incarnate Word	Slnd	1.73	1.73	13.04	13.04	-1.28	-1.28
Boise St.	MWC	1.72	1.72	72.41	72.41	0.77	0.77
South Carolina	SEC	1.70	1.70	48.39	48.39	-0.05	-0.05
Appalachian St.	SB	1.67	1.67	40.00	40.00	-0.33	-0.33
Howard	MEAC	1.67	1.67	26.67	26.67	-0.78	-0.78
North Dakota St.	Sum	1.67	1.67	39.29	39.29	-0.36	-0.36
Washington St.	P12	1.67	1.67	40.00	40.00	-0.33	-0.33
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.27	0.27	80.00	80.00	0.16	0.16
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.22	0.22	43.33	43.33	-0.03	-0.03
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.22	0.22	37.93	37.93	-0.05	-0.05
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.21	0.21	10.71	10.71	-0.17	-0.17
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.21	0.21	30.77	30.77	-0.08	-0.08
James Madison	CAA	0.19	0.19	29.03	29.03	-0.08	-0.08
Texas St.	SB	0.19	0.19	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.19	0.19	65.62	65.62	0.06	0.06
Utah Valley	WAC	0.19	0.19	65.52	65.52	0.06	0.06
UT Arlington	SB	0.19	0.19	60.61	60.61	0.04	0.04
Seattle	WAC	0.19	0.19	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
Chicago St.	WAC	0.17	0.17	3.33	3.33	-0.16	-0.16
UNLV	MWC	0.16	0.16	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Colorado St.	MWC	0.16	0.16	32.26	32.26	-0.06	-0.06
Utah St.	MWC	0.16	0.16	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Wyoming	MWC	0.16	0.16	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.15	0.15	32.00	32.00	-0.05	-0.05
UMKC	WAC	0.15	0.15	27.59	27.59	-0.07	-0.07
South Florida	Amer	0.14	0.14	31.25	31.25	-0.05	-0.05
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.14	0.14	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.14	0.14	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.14	0.14	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
USC	P12	0.14	0.14	67.65	67.65	0.05	0.05
Nebraska	B10	0.14	0.14	68.75	68.75	0.05	0.05
Oklahoma	B12	0.14	0.14	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
South Alabama	SB	0.14	0.14	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Mississippi	SEC	0.14	0.14	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.14	0.14	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Troy	SB	0.14	0.14	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.13	0.13	67.74	67.74	0.05	0.05
New Orleans	Slnd	0.13	0.13	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.12	0.12	8.00	8.00	-0.10	-0.10
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.11	0.11	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Texas Tech	B12	0.11	0.11	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Tulsa	Amer	0.11	0.11	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
South Dakota	Sum	0.11	0.11	73.33	73.33	0.05	0.05
Missouri St.	MVC	0.11	0.11	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Davidson	A10	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
San Diego	WCC	0.11	0.11	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.11	0.11	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.11	0.11	24.24	24.24	-0.06	-0.06
Oregon	P12	0.11	0.11	64.71	64.71	0.03	0.03
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.11	0.11	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
Indiana St.	MVC	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Auburn	SEC	0.11	0.11	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Air Force	MWC	0.11	0.11	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.10	0.10	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.09	0.09	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.09	0.09	60.71	60.71	0.02	0.02
Florida	SEC	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.09	0.09	80.00	80.00	0.05	0.05
Georgia St.	SB	0.08	0.08	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.08	0.08	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.08	0.08	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.08	0.08	9.68	9.68	-0.07	-0.07
Georgetown	BE	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.08	0.08	84.85	84.85	0.06	0.06
Chattanooga	SC	0.08	0.08	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Arizona	P12	0.08	0.08	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
Illinois	B10	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.08	0.08	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.08	0.08	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Little Rock	SB	0.08	0.08	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.08	0.08	80.65	80.65	0.05	0.05
Alabama	SEC	0.08	0.08	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.08	0.08	16.67	16.67	-0.05	-0.05
Colorado	P12	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Fresno St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
San Jose St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	10.34	10.34	-0.06	-0.06
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.06	0.06	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Gonzaga	WCC	0.06	0.06	88.24	88.24	0.05	0.05
Denver	Sum	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
North Dakota	BSky	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Stetson	ASun	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Western Illinois	Sum	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
UC Davis	BW	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Towson	CAA	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.06	0.06	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Michigan	B10	0.06	0.06	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
California	P12	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
George Mason	A10	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Montana St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Texas	B12	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Utah	P12	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Washington	P12	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
SMU	Amer	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
VCU	A10	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Temple	Amer	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.05	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Houston	Amer	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
College of Charleston	CAA	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
East Carolina	Amer	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
High Point	BSth	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Presbyterian	BSth	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Elon	CAA	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Hartford	AE	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Milwaukee	Horz	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
North Florida	ASun	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	82.76	82.76	0.02	0.02
Portland	WCC	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Utah	BSky	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
American	Pat	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Arizona St.	P12	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	15.62	15.62	-0.02	-0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
George Washington	A10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia Southern	SB	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Idaho	BSky	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Idaho St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
IUPUI	Horz	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Memphis	Amer	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Penn	Ivy	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	44.12	44.12	-0.00	-0.00
UCLA	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Fairfield	MAAC	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
LSU	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Maryland	B10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Morehead St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	22.22	22.22	-0.01	-0.01
Purdue	B10	0.03	0.03	82.35	82.35	0.02	0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
TCU	B12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Xavier	BE	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02