live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Oklahoma

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:18.0
Current RPI:18
Expected SOS:13
Current SOS:13
Current Record:22-10
Expected Record:22-10
Current Conf Record:13-7
Expected Conf Record:13-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:8-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:51
Expected OOC SOS:102



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-1018.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Oklahoma.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Southeastern Louisiana (329.0)SlndH78-53W100%0.0
11-19Creighton (151.0)BEA65-63L0%0.0
11-23Northwestern St. (161.0)SlndH90-68W100%0.0
11-26UCLA (48.0)P12N75-65W100%0.0
11-27Butler (31.0)BEN59-46W100%0.0
11-28Wisconsin (4.0)B10N69-56L0%0.0
12-5Missouri (218.0)SECH82-63W100%0.0
12-13Tulsa (45.0)AmerA68-87W100%0.0
12-16Oral Roberts (163.0)SumH85-53W100%0.0
12-20Washington (126.0)P12N69-67L0%0.0
12-22Weber St. (263.0)BSkyH85-51W100%0.0
12-31George Mason (221.0)A10H61-43W100%0.0
1-3Baylor (10.0)B12H73-63W100%0.0
1-5Texas (42.0)B12A49-70W100%0.0
1-10Kansas St. (100.0)B12H63-66L0%0.0
1-13West Virginia (24.0)B12A86-65L0%0.0
1-17Oklahoma St. (49.0)B12H82-65W100%0.0
1-19Kansas (2.0)B12A85-78L0%0.0
1-24Baylor (10.0)B12A69-58L0%0.0
1-28Texas Tech (183.0)B12H81-36W100%0.0
1-31Oklahoma St. (49.0)B12A56-64W100%0.0
2-3West Virginia (24.0)B12H71-52W100%0.0
2-7TCU (131.0)B12A56-68W100%0.0
2-9Iowa St. (9.0)B12H94-83W100%0.0
2-14Kansas St. (100.0)B12A59-56L0%0.0
2-17Texas (42.0)B12H71-69W100%0.0
2-21Texas Tech (183.0)B12A75-79W100%0.0
2-28TCU (131.0)B12H67-60W100%0.0
3-2Iowa St. (9.0)B12A77-70L0%0.0
3-7Kansas (2.0)B12H75-73W100%0.0
3-12Oklahoma St. (49.0)B12N64-49W100%0.0
3-13Iowa St. (9.0)B12N65-67L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Oklahoma's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Oklahoma's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Oklahoma.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
OklahomaB1226.4226.4269.7069.7010.4110.41
Iowa St.B125.615.6176.6776.672.992.99
Oklahoma St.B125.585.5862.9662.961.451.45
KansasB124.174.1778.1278.122.352.35
TexasB124.124.1264.5264.521.201.20
TCUB124.104.1058.0658.060.660.66
BaylorB124.094.0973.3373.331.911.91
Texas TechB124.074.0743.3343.33-0.54-0.54
West VirginiaB124.074.0773.3373.331.901.90
Kansas St.B124.044.0443.3343.33-0.54-0.54
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd1.701.7026.6726.67-0.79-0.79
TulsaAmer1.691.6973.3373.330.790.79
MissouriSEC1.671.6726.6726.67-0.78-0.78
Northwestern St.Slnd1.661.6657.6957.690.260.26
Oral RobertsSum1.641.6455.1755.170.170.17
CreightonBE1.641.6440.6240.62-0.31-0.31
George MasonA101.611.6127.5927.59-0.72-0.72
ButlerBE1.611.6170.9770.970.680.68
Weber St.BSky1.591.5940.7440.74-0.29-0.29
UCLAP121.591.5962.5062.500.400.40
WashingtonP121.591.5950.0050.000.000.00
WisconsinB101.561.5690.9190.911.281.28
McNeese St.Slnd0.260.2640.7440.74-0.05-0.05
South CarolinaSEC0.250.2550.0050.000.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.220.2243.7543.75-0.03-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.210.2167.7467.740.080.08
MemphisAmer0.200.2056.2556.250.030.03
Oregon St.P120.200.2053.3353.330.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.180.1864.5264.520.050.05
MarylandB100.170.1781.8281.820.110.11
ConnecticutAmer0.170.1758.8258.820.030.03
StanfordP120.170.1759.3859.380.030.03
CaliforniaP120.170.1754.5554.550.020.02
KentuckySEC0.170.17100.00100.000.170.17
IowaB100.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.160.1686.6786.670.120.12
New OrleansSlnd0.160.1630.7730.77-0.06-0.06
Nicholls St.Slnd0.150.1526.9226.92-0.07-0.07
LSUSEC0.150.1568.7568.750.060.06
North TexasCUSA0.150.1541.3841.38-0.03-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.150.1576.4776.470.080.08
ArizonaP120.150.1591.1891.180.120.12
XavierBE0.150.1561.7661.760.030.03
Long Beach St.BW0.150.1545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
UtahP120.140.1474.1974.190.070.07
Central ArkansasSlnd0.130.136.906.90-0.11-0.11
MilwaukeeHorz0.130.1342.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.130.1331.0331.03-0.05-0.05
North Dakota St.Sum0.130.1370.0070.000.050.05
LamarSlnd0.130.1342.3142.31-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.120.1241.1841.18-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.120.1240.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Washington St.P120.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
AlabamaSEC0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
DePaulBE0.120.1237.5037.50-0.03-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.120.1240.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.120.1218.7518.75-0.07-0.07
Southern UtahBSky0.100.1032.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.100.1052.9452.940.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
TulaneAmer0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.100.1072.7372.730.040.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.1064.7164.710.030.03
IllinoisB100.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
TempleAmer0.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
MississippiSEC0.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
USCP120.100.1037.5037.50-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
ProvidenceBE0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
Seton HallBE0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
St. John'sBE0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
VillanovaBE0.100.1094.1294.120.080.08
LafayettePat0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
Michigan St.B100.090.0967.6567.650.030.03
MontanaBSky0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
Incarnate WordSlnd0.080.0858.3358.330.010.01
IUPUISum0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0823.0823.08-0.04-0.04
South DakotaSum0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0727.2727.27-0.03-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.070.000.00-0.07-0.07
LipscombASun0.070.0739.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.070.0770.0070.000.030.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.070.0739.2939.29-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Georgia St.SB0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
OaklandHorz0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
IdahoBSky0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0572.4172.410.020.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
DavidsonA100.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
DenverSum0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
IPFWSum0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
VCUA100.050.0574.2974.290.030.03
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Arizona St.P120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.050.0593.9493.940.040.04
Air ForceMWC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Virginia TechACC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
VMISC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
North CarolinaACC0.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
IndianaB100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
FurmanSC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
Texas St.SB0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
MichiganB100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Penn St.B100.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
RiderMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
UNLVMWC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
BYUWCC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
NevadaMWC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
La SalleA100.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
MassachusettsA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0390.9190.910.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
ElonCAA0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.030.030.000.00-0.03-0.03
SeattleWAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
WinthropBSth0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
BelmontOVC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.020.0210.0010.00-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0275.8675.860.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
DukeACC0.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
Green BayHorz0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
Ohio St.B100.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
RutgersB100.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01