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Through games of Nov 18, 2017.


Oklahoma

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:39.9
Current RPI:179
Expected SOS:4
Current SOS:290
Current Record:2-0
Expected Record:17-11
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:2-0
Expected OOC Record:8-2
Expected OOC RPI:29
Expected OOC SOS:75



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-31.20.04%
24-42.40.13%
23-53.60.41%
22-66.21.34%
21-79.53.38%
20-813.76.76%
19-919.211.33%
18-1025.715.52%
17-1134.117.43%
16-1243.715.49%
15-1355.212.56%
14-1469.88.63%
13-1585.84.05%
12-16102.02.00%
11-17120.50.64%
10-18141.70.26%
9-19156.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Oklahoma.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Nebraska Omaha (243.1)SumH108-89W100%0.0
11-15Ball St. (158.5)MACH108-69W100%0.0
11-23Arkansas (31.4)SECN0-052%0.6
11-30North Texas (285.9)CUSAH0-099%26.2
12-4UTSA (247.6)CUSAH0-098%24.0
12-8USC (23.2)P12N0-052%0.5
12-16Wichita St. (10.9)AmerA0-029%-6.6
12-19Northwestern St. (322.8)SlndH0-0100%32.9
12-22Northwestern (80.7)B10H0-077%8.9
12-30TCU (44.2)B12A0-046%-1.3
1-3Oklahoma St. (64.7)B12H0-065%4.5
1-6West Virginia (33.4)B12A0-029%-6.7
1-9Texas Tech (67.9)B12H0-065%4.6
1-13TCU (44.2)B12H0-065%4.7
1-16Kansas St. (67.2)B12A0-045%-1.5
1-20Oklahoma St. (64.7)B12A0-045%-1.5
1-23Kansas (4.9)B12H0-036%-4.3
1-27Alabama (33.7)SECA0-049%-0.3
1-30Baylor (41.9)B12H0-060%3.1
2-3Texas (42.7)B12A0-040%-2.9
2-5West Virginia (33.4)B12H0-048%-0.7
2-10Iowa St. (151.6)B12A0-069%6.1
2-13Texas Tech (67.9)B12A0-045%-1.4
2-17Texas (42.7)B12H0-060%3.1
2-19Kansas (4.9)B12A0-019%-10.3
2-24Kansas St. (67.2)B12H0-065%4.5
2-27Baylor (41.9)B12A0-040%-2.9
3-2Iowa St. (151.6)B12H0-084%12.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Oklahoma's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Oklahoma's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Oklahoma.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
OklahomaB1232.2926.40100.0058.3132.294.39
Oklahoma St.B120.004.60100.0060.570.000.97
TexasB120.004.60100.0064.880.001.37
KansasB120.004.57100.0083.640.003.08
TCUB120.004.57100.0062.340.001.13
BaylorB120.004.56100.0061.950.001.09
Kansas St.B120.004.54100.0064.200.001.29
Texas TechB120.004.54100.0063.900.001.26
Iowa St.B120.004.5350.0039.880.00-0.92
West VirginiaB120.004.5366.6771.890.001.98
Wichita St.Amer0.001.91100.0082.710.001.25
Nebraska OmahaSum25.001.900.0037.08-25.00-0.49
AlabamaSEC0.001.88100.0061.660.000.44
ArkansasSEC0.001.87100.0072.010.000.82
North TexasCUSA0.001.8550.0037.900.00-0.45
Northwestern St.Slnd0.001.850.0023.870.00-0.97
UTSACUSA0.001.8533.3339.740.00-0.38
Ball St.MAC25.001.7950.0047.110.00-0.10
NorthwesternB100.001.7975.0056.190.000.22
USCP120.001.79100.0074.080.000.86
Texas A&MSEC0.000.33100.0071.010.000.14
TulsaAmer0.000.2850.0048.690.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.2233.3336.410.00-0.06
Oral RobertsSum0.000.210.0023.260.00-0.11
VanderbiltSEC0.000.2166.6749.990.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.000.19100.0076.260.000.10
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.19100.0063.590.000.05
KentuckySEC0.000.1875.0071.830.000.08
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.180.0050.360.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.150.0032.130.00-0.06
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.1566.6761.500.000.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.150.0025.140.00-0.08
NebraskaB100.000.1566.6740.070.00-0.03
MississippiSEC0.000.15100.0053.790.000.01
MissouriSEC0.000.1566.6757.890.000.02
FloridaSEC0.000.15100.0080.230.000.09
Arizona St.P120.000.15100.0062.760.000.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.130.0035.610.00-0.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.130.0046.000.00-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.130.0038.960.00-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.000.130.0051.690.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.000.13100.0038.710.00-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.000.120.0045.640.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.1266.6767.630.000.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.120.0037.120.00-0.03
MichiganB100.000.12100.0061.710.000.03
WisconsinB100.000.1266.6766.970.000.04
MinnesotaB100.000.12100.0071.700.000.05
TennesseeSEC0.000.12100.0048.350.00-0.00
AmericanPat0.000.120.0030.350.00-0.05
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.12100.0050.450.000.00
WashingtonP120.000.1250.0046.810.00-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.1266.6750.670.000.00
LSUSEC0.000.12100.0046.080.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.1275.0049.860.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.120.0046.410.00-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.12100.0053.240.000.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.1275.0058.930.000.02
NevadaMWC0.000.12100.0078.910.000.07
ToledoMAC0.000.12100.0064.120.000.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.100.0023.170.00-0.05
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.100.0047.180.00-0.01
UtahP120.000.10100.0067.160.000.03
Southern MissCUSA0.000.100.0034.600.00-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.100.0036.830.00-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.1033.3346.880.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.090.0024.970.00-0.05
HoustonAmer0.000.0966.6753.670.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0933.3353.520.000.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0966.6740.170.00-0.02
UCFAmer0.000.09100.0061.780.000.02
IowaB100.000.09100.0058.250.000.02
New MexicoMWC3.120.0950.0050.570.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0950.0039.640.00-0.02
UMKCWAC0.000.090.0026.150.00-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.090.0018.400.00-0.06
OregonP120.000.09100.0076.200.000.05
LipscombASun0.000.0933.3349.220.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.000.09100.0060.370.000.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0950.0035.330.00-0.03
Washington St.P120.000.09100.0041.780.00-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.09100.0051.080.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.070.0042.810.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0750.0043.710.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.070.0044.130.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.07100.0069.350.000.03
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0766.6742.170.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0666.6749.100.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0666.6768.320.000.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0675.0072.950.000.03
UABCUSA0.000.06100.0078.750.000.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.060.0045.040.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0633.3342.010.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.06100.0082.350.000.04
ConnecticutAmer0.000.06100.0056.360.000.01
DenverSum0.000.060.0038.100.00-0.02
DrakeMVC0.000.0650.0035.740.00-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.000.0666.6756.330.000.01
Montana St.BSky3.120.0633.3350.35-1.040.00
TempleAmer0.000.06100.0056.600.000.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0633.3350.220.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.060.0028.720.00-0.03
ButlerBE0.000.0675.0052.360.000.00
ColoradoP120.000.06100.0052.860.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0022.840.00-0.03
FordhamA100.000.0633.3336.170.00-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.060.0057.520.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0650.0051.070.000.00
MaristMAAC0.000.060.0023.830.00-0.03
MarylandB100.000.06100.0071.740.000.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.060.0028.770.00-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.06100.0060.010.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0633.3335.150.00-0.02
New HampshireAE0.000.060.0048.110.00-0.00
NJITASun0.000.0633.3333.210.00-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0666.6763.220.000.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0666.6742.260.00-0.01
Penn St.B100.000.06100.0060.400.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0633.3334.560.00-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0044.630.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.0666.6766.590.000.02
VirginiaACC0.000.06100.0074.140.000.03
XavierBE0.000.06100.0078.990.000.04
UCLAP120.000.06100.0064.910.000.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0650.0050.670.000.00
BucknellPat0.000.060.0061.460.000.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0633.3343.810.00-0.01
ValparaisoMVC0.000.06100.0059.760.000.01
ArizonaP120.000.06100.0083.700.000.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.06100.0071.560.000.03
Austin PeayOVC0.000.060.0029.880.00-0.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0675.0071.560.000.03
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0675.0045.290.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.060.0048.610.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0053.280.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.06100.0068.200.000.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.060.0031.380.00-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.06100.0066.010.000.02
MaineAE0.000.060.0013.450.00-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0018.970.00-0.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.060.0024.440.00-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.000.060.0031.910.00-0.02
Seton HallBE0.000.06100.0067.950.000.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.0633.3345.780.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.060.0036.490.00-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.000.0633.3353.300.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.060.0039.010.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0633.3353.190.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0633.3335.210.00-0.02
WoffordSC0.000.060.0039.740.00-0.01
YaleIvy0.000.0625.0054.930.000.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0666.6765.630.000.02
SyracuseACC0.000.06100.0062.240.000.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.040.0029.630.00-0.01
LamarSlnd0.000.04100.0065.580.000.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0375.0048.770.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0333.3347.670.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.000.0333.3346.090.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0350.0060.430.000.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0366.6768.790.000.01
CornellIvy0.000.0333.3334.680.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0333.3334.490.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0366.6773.200.000.01
LouisvilleACC3.120.03100.0066.993.120.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0366.6728.760.00-0.01
TulaneAmer0.000.03100.0054.140.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.030.0035.450.00-0.01
BrownIvy0.000.03100.0039.270.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.030.0042.670.00-0.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.030.0035.130.00-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.007.670.00-0.03
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0067.460.000.01
DePaulBE0.000.0333.3331.290.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0350.0060.060.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.03100.0058.070.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.0032.770.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.03100.0059.240.000.01
IndianaB100.000.0333.3341.220.00-0.01
La SalleA100.000.0375.0051.210.000.00
LehighPat0.000.0366.6751.580.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.000.030.0038.210.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0350.0077.820.000.02
Ohio St.B100.000.03100.0059.870.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.030.0051.010.000.00
PurdueB100.000.03100.0085.360.000.02
RutgersB100.000.03100.0046.880.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.030.0037.310.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0333.3348.640.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.000.0333.3347.970.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.03100.0052.950.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.030.0042.340.00-0.00
TroySB0.000.0333.3346.410.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0366.6748.040.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.03100.0061.010.000.01
DaytonA104.170.0366.6762.151.390.01
IUPUIHorz0.000.030.0032.200.00-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.030.0044.500.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.03100.0039.920.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.000.030.0036.690.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0073.730.000.01
OhioMAC0.000.0333.3348.480.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE4.170.030.0047.40-4.17-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0022.610.00-0.02
BYUWCC0.000.0366.6767.320.000.01
MercerSC0.000.0375.0076.250.000.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.0350.0073.230.000.01