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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Oklahoma

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:26.0
Current RPI:26
Expected SOS:15
Current SOS:15
Current Record:23-9
Expected Record:23-9
Current Conf Record:12-7
Expected Conf Record:12-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:31
Expected OOC SOS:70



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-926.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Oklahoma.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Alabama (124.0)SECN82-73W100%0.0
11-11North Texas (195.0)CUSAH95-82W100%0.0
11-13Idaho (238.0)WACH85-65W100%0.0
11-22Seton Hall (128.0)BEN85-86W100%0.0
11-23Michigan St. (18.0)B10N87-76L0%0.0
11-29Arkansas Little Rock (186.0)SBH101-81W100%0.0
12-2Mercer (81.0)ASunH96-82W100%0.0
12-5Texas A&M Corpus Chris (249.0)SlndH78-56W100%0.0
12-8George Mason (164.0)A10N66-81W100%0.0
12-14Tulsa (73.0)CUSAH101-91W100%0.0
12-17UT Arlington (199.0)SBH91-89W100%0.0
12-21Texas A&M (148.0)SECN52-64W100%0.0
12-30Louisiana Tech (62.0)CUSAH98-102L0%0.0
1-4Texas (36.0)B12A85-88W100%0.0
1-8Kansas (3.0)B12H83-90L0%0.0
1-11Iowa St. (7.0)B12H87-82W100%0.0
1-14Kansas St. (51.0)B12A72-66L0%0.0
1-18Baylor (30.0)B12A64-66W100%0.0
1-22TCU (212.0)B12H77-69W100%0.0
1-25Texas Tech (121.0)B12A65-74W100%0.0
1-27Oklahoma St. (45.0)B12H88-76W100%0.0
2-1Iowa St. (7.0)B12A81-75L0%0.0
2-5West Virginia (88.0)B12A91-86L0%0.0
2-8Baylor (30.0)B12H88-72W100%0.0
2-12Texas Tech (121.0)B12H60-68L0%0.0
2-15Oklahoma St. (45.0)B12A74-77W100%0.0
2-22Kansas St. (51.0)B12H86-73W100%0.0
2-24Kansas (3.0)B12A83-75L0%0.0
3-1Texas (36.0)B12H77-65W100%0.0
3-5West Virginia (88.0)B12H72-62W100%0.0
3-8TCU (212.0)B12A67-97W100%0.0
3-13Baylor (30.0)B12N73-78L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Oklahoma's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Oklahoma's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Oklahoma.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
OklahomaB1226.3226.3269.2969.2910.1510.15
BaylorB125.625.6270.0070.002.252.25
Iowa St.B124.174.1780.6580.652.562.56
TexasB124.154.1574.1974.192.012.01
Oklahoma St.B124.074.0767.7467.741.441.44
TCUB124.064.0625.9325.93-1.95-1.95
KansasB124.054.0570.9770.971.701.70
Texas TechB124.024.0243.3343.33-0.54-0.54
Kansas St.B124.004.0063.3363.331.071.07
West VirginiaB124.004.0053.3353.330.270.27
TulsaCUSA1.801.8065.6265.620.560.56
Louisiana TechCUSA1.681.6878.1278.120.950.95
North TexasCUSA1.681.6846.4346.43-0.12-0.12
UT ArlingtonSB1.661.6644.8344.83-0.17-0.17
Arkansas Little RockSB1.641.6444.8344.83-0.17-0.17
AlabamaSEC1.641.6440.0040.00-0.33-0.33
MercerASun1.631.6376.6776.670.870.87
Texas A&MSEC1.611.6154.8454.840.160.16
George MasonA101.611.6136.6736.67-0.43-0.43
Michigan St.B101.611.6175.7675.760.830.83
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd1.611.6155.5655.560.180.18
IdahoWAC1.591.5946.8846.88-0.10-0.10
Seton HallBE1.591.5951.5251.520.050.05
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.220.2264.5264.520.070.07
RiceCUSA0.220.2217.8617.86-0.14-0.14
Central ArkansasSlnd0.200.2024.0024.00-0.11-0.11
Louisiana MonroeSB0.200.2034.6234.62-0.06-0.06
Oral RobertsSlnd0.200.2044.8344.83-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.190.1941.1841.18-0.03-0.03
TroySB0.180.1831.0331.03-0.07-0.07
Houston BaptistSlnd0.180.1814.8114.81-0.13-0.13
TulaneCUSA0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
KentuckySEC0.170.1770.5970.590.070.07
ColoradoP120.170.1767.6567.650.060.06
GeorgetownBE0.170.1754.8454.840.020.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.150.1525.8125.81-0.07-0.07
South AlabamaSB0.150.1528.5728.57-0.06-0.06
Texas St.SB0.150.1520.6920.69-0.09-0.09
UTSACUSA0.150.1522.2222.22-0.08-0.08
MississippiSEC0.150.1557.5857.580.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.150.1548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.150.1594.1294.120.130.13
LSUSEC0.150.1559.3859.380.030.03
MissouriSEC0.150.1566.6766.670.050.05
CharlotteCUSA0.150.1554.8454.840.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.130.1356.6756.670.020.02
Georgia St.SB0.130.1374.1974.190.060.06
Mississippi St.SEC0.130.1342.4242.42-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.130.1325.9325.93-0.06-0.06
Texas SouthernSWAC0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
North FloridaASun0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.120.1270.9770.970.050.05
Southern MissCUSA0.120.1280.6580.650.080.08
MarshallCUSA0.120.1229.0329.03-0.05-0.05
Northwestern St.Slnd0.120.1248.1548.15-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
UTEPCUSA0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
VanderbiltSEC0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.120.1270.9770.970.050.05
SouthernSWAC0.120.1255.1755.170.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
PurdueB100.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.120.1234.4834.48-0.04-0.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.120.1262.0762.070.030.03
ButlerBE0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.120.1275.7675.760.060.06
VillanovaBE0.120.1287.5087.500.090.09
Western KentuckySB0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.100.1093.1093.100.090.09
HoustonAmer0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
DuquesneA100.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
Robert MorrisNEC0.100.1061.7661.760.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.100.1037.5037.50-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.100.1081.8281.820.060.06
Long Beach St.BW0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
DaytonA100.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
Virginia TechACC0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
WisconsinB100.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
DePaulBE0.090.0936.3636.36-0.03-0.03
IowaB100.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.0846.1546.15-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.0814.8114.81-0.06-0.06
SMUAmer0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
LongwoodBSth0.080.0814.2914.29-0.06-0.06
Washington St.P120.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
East CarolinaCUSA0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.070.0746.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
UABCUSA0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
ColumbiaIvy0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
PortlandWCC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
IonaMAAC0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.0720.6920.69-0.04-0.04
XavierBE0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0746.1546.15-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
SyracuseACC0.070.0784.3884.380.050.05
North CarolinaACC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
CreightonBE0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
NorthwesternB100.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.070.0767.6567.650.020.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0530.7730.77-0.02-0.02
HarvardIvy0.050.0586.2186.210.040.04
LamarSlnd0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
MinnesotaB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
FordhamA100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
LipscombASun0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
StetsonASun0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.050.05100.00100.000.050.05
ArizonaP120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
Arizona St.P120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Georgia SouthernSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
South DakotaSum0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
AkronMAC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
MontanaBSky0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
SeattleWAC0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
TowsonCAA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
IllinoisB100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
IndianaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
MarquetteBE0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Ohio St.B100.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Penn St.B100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
DenverSum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
DrexelCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
PennIvy0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0370.3770.370.010.01
RichmondA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
YaleIvy0.030.0351.8551.850.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.020.0264.2964.290.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0230.3030.30-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.020.0277.7877.780.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UICHorz0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
MarylandACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
UC DavisBW0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.020.0221.2121.21-0.01-0.01
NJITind0.020.0236.0036.00-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
RutgersAmer0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00