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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Oklahoma

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:6.0
Current RPI:6
Expected SOS:12
Current SOS:12
Current Record:25-7
Expected Record:25-7
Current Conf Record:13-7
Expected Conf Record:13-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:7-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-0
Current OOC Record:12-0
Expected OOC Record:12-0
Expected OOC RPI:4
Expected OOC SOS:95



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-76.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Oklahoma.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17Memphis (139.0)AmerA78-84W100%0.0
11-20McNeese St. (341.0)SlndH85-56W100%0.0
11-24Incarnate Word (163.0)SlndH96-63W100%0.0
11-29Wisconsin (43.0)B10H65-48W100%0.0
12-3Central Arkansas (339.0)SlndH111-68W100%0.0
12-7Villanova (4.0)BEN55-78W100%0.0
12-12Oral Roberts (148.0)SumH96-73W100%0.0
12-19Creighton (100.0)BEH87-74W100%0.0
12-22Washington St. (212.0)P12N60-88W100%0.0
12-23Hawaii (80.0)BWA81-84W100%0.0
12-25Harvard (193.0)IvyN83-71W100%0.0
1-2Iowa St. (23.0)B12H87-83W100%0.0
1-4Kansas (1.0)B12A109-106L0%0.0
1-9Kansas St. (92.0)B12H86-76W100%0.0
1-13Oklahoma St. (170.0)B12A72-74W100%0.0
1-16West Virginia (10.0)B12H70-68W100%0.0
1-18Iowa St. (23.0)B12A82-77L0%0.0
1-23Baylor (25.0)B12A72-82W100%0.0
1-26Texas Tech (36.0)B12H91-67W100%0.0
1-30LSU (94.0)SECA75-77W100%0.0
2-2TCU (174.0)B12H95-72W100%0.0
2-6Kansas St. (92.0)B12A80-69L0%0.0
2-8Texas (27.0)B12H63-60W100%0.0
2-13Kansas (1.0)B12H72-76L0%0.0
2-17Texas Tech (36.0)B12A65-63L0%0.0
2-20West Virginia (10.0)B12A62-76W100%0.0
2-24Oklahoma St. (170.0)B12H71-49W100%0.0
2-27Texas (27.0)B12A76-63L0%0.0
3-1Baylor (25.0)B12H73-71W100%0.0
3-5TCU (174.0)B12A67-75W100%0.0
3-10Iowa St. (23.0)B12N79-76W100%0.0
3-11West Virginia (10.0)B12N69-67L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Oklahoma's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Oklahoma's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Oklahoma.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
OklahomaB1226.4226.4280.4380.4316.0816.08
West VirginiaB125.615.6180.6580.653.443.44
Iowa St.B125.505.5068.9768.972.092.09
KansasB124.194.1987.1087.103.113.11
TCUB124.114.1138.7138.71-0.93-0.93
Kansas St.B124.094.0951.6151.610.130.13
BaylorB124.094.0970.0070.001.631.63
Texas TechB124.064.0662.0762.070.980.98
TexasB124.044.0463.3363.331.081.08
Oklahoma St.B124.044.0440.0040.00-0.81-0.81
McNeese St.Slnd1.671.6728.0028.00-0.74-0.74
Central ArkansasSlnd1.651.6525.9325.93-0.80-0.80
Incarnate WordSlnd1.621.6258.3358.330.270.27
LSUSEC1.621.6259.3859.380.300.30
HawaiiBW1.611.6186.2186.211.171.17
VillanovaBE1.611.6187.8887.881.221.22
HarvardIvy1.611.6144.4444.44-0.18-0.18
CreightonBE1.611.6158.0658.060.260.26
Oral RobertsSum1.591.5942.8642.86-0.23-0.23
MemphisAmer1.561.5657.5857.580.240.24
Washington St.P121.561.5627.5927.59-0.70-0.70
WisconsinB101.561.5664.5264.520.450.45
Texas A&MSEC0.290.2976.4776.470.150.15
Nicholls St.Slnd0.260.2625.8125.81-0.12-0.12
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.200.2024.2424.24-0.10-0.10
WashingtonP120.200.2056.2556.250.020.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.200.2020.8320.83-0.11-0.11
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.190.1932.2632.26-0.07-0.07
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.190.1976.6776.670.100.10
South Dakota St.Sum0.180.1877.4277.420.100.10
Long Beach St.BW0.180.1856.2556.250.020.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.170.1782.1482.140.110.11
VanderbiltSEC0.170.1759.3859.380.030.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.170.1733.3333.33-0.06-0.06
Houston BaptistSlnd0.170.1744.8344.83-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.170.1751.7251.720.010.01
FloridaSEC0.170.1757.5857.580.030.03
ColoradoP120.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
LamarSlnd0.150.1526.9226.92-0.07-0.07
TulsaAmer0.150.1564.5264.520.040.04
New OrleansSlnd0.150.1525.9325.93-0.07-0.07
ProvidenceBE0.150.1569.7069.700.060.06
Coppin St.MEAC0.150.1524.1424.14-0.08-0.08
MarquetteBE0.140.1460.6160.610.030.03
GeorgetownBE0.140.1445.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.140.1475.7675.760.070.07
Virginia TechACC0.140.1457.5857.580.020.02
UCLAP120.130.1346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.130.1358.0658.060.020.02
AuburnSEC0.130.1335.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
St. John'sBE0.130.1322.5822.58-0.07-0.07
Northern IowaMVC0.130.1363.6463.640.030.03
MinnesotaB100.120.1225.8125.81-0.06-0.06
IllinoisB100.120.1244.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.120.1222.5822.58-0.07-0.07
GeorgiaSEC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
RichmondA100.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.120.1268.7568.750.040.04
ConnecticutAmer0.120.1270.5970.590.050.05
San Diego St.MWC0.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
Arkansas Little RockSB0.110.1187.1087.100.080.08
IndianaB100.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
ColumbiaIvy0.100.1065.5265.520.030.03
Missouri St.MVC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.100.1029.1729.17-0.04-0.04
UtahP120.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
IUPUISum0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
UTSACUSA0.100.1013.3313.33-0.07-0.07
UC IrvineBW0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
StanfordP120.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
IowaB100.100.1067.7467.740.030.03
NebraskaB100.100.1047.0647.06-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
North CarolinaACC0.100.1082.3582.350.060.06
James MadisonCAA0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
ButlerBE0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
DePaulBE0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
XavierBE0.090.0984.3884.380.070.07
KentuckySEC0.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
TennesseeSEC0.090.0944.1244.12-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
TempleAmer0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
SMUAmer0.090.0983.3383.330.060.06
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0931.0331.03-0.04-0.04
VirginiaACC0.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
HowardMEAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
MassachusettsA100.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
PennIvy0.080.0837.0437.04-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
RutgersB100.080.0819.3519.35-0.05-0.05
Arizona St.P120.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Holy CrossPat0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.070.0781.8281.820.050.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0774.1974.190.040.04
Oregon St.P120.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0784.3884.380.050.05
Chicago St.WAC0.070.073.453.45-0.07-0.07
MichiganB100.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
North DakotaBSky0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.070.0725.0025.00-0.03-0.03
StetsonASun0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
TulaneAmer0.070.0735.2935.29-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
Texas St.SB0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
CornellIvy0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.060.0677.7877.780.030.03
YaleIvy0.060.0677.7877.780.030.03
DenverSum0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
IPFWSum0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
ArizonaP120.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Cal PolyBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
UC DavisBW0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
USCP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
High PointBSth0.050.0564.2964.290.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
MarylandB100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
SamfordSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
ColgatePat0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
MontanaBSky0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Saint LouisA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
HoustonAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0524.2424.24-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
BryantNEC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
PittsburghACC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
VermontAE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
WoffordSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0357.6957.690.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
IdahoBSky0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0322.8622.86-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Green BayHorz0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Penn St.B100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
SienaMAAC0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
SyracuseACC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
VCUA100.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
AmericanPat0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
DelawareCAA0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.020.0211.1111.11-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01