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Through games of Jan 20, 2018.


Oklahoma

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:22.4
Current RPI:11
Expected SOS:14
Current SOS:16
Current Record:14-4
Expected Record:20-10
Current Conf Record:4-3
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:10-1
Expected OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC RPI:20
Expected OOC SOS:117



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-43.30.03%
25-53.90.44%
24-65.81.98%
23-78.26.58%
22-811.615.22%
21-916.523.09%
20-1022.923.21%
19-1131.116.97%
18-1240.58.68%
17-1350.72.91%
16-1460.30.80%
15-1571.50.08%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Oklahoma.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Nebraska Omaha (250.6)SumH108-89W100%0.0
11-15Ball St. (114.8)MACH108-69W100%0.0
11-23Arkansas (41.6)SECN83-92L0%0.0
11-24Portland (257.0)WCCN71-93W100%0.0
11-26Oregon (67.0)P12N80-90W100%0.0
11-30North Texas (217.7)CUSAH82-72W100%0.0
12-4UTSA (249.2)CUSAH97-85W100%0.0
12-8USC (34.7)P12N83-85W100%0.0
12-16Wichita St. (17.9)AmerA83-91W100%0.0
12-19Northwestern St. (337.9)SlndH105-68W100%0.0
12-22Northwestern (126.0)B10H104-78W100%0.0
12-30TCU (28.3)B12A89-90W100%0.0
1-3Oklahoma St. (94.8)B12H109-89W100%0.0
1-6West Virginia (15.9)B12A89-76L0%0.0
1-9Texas Tech (25.9)B12H75-65W100%0.0
1-13TCU (28.3)B12H102-97W100%0.0
1-16Kansas St. (67.2)B12A87-69L0%0.0
1-20Oklahoma St. (94.8)B12A83-81L0%0.0
1-23Kansas (5.9)B12H0-042%-2.3
1-27Alabama (40.0)SECA0-054%1.2
1-30Baylor (58.5)B12H0-065%4.3
2-3Texas (46.5)B12A0-046%-1.0
2-5West Virginia (15.9)B12H0-046%-1.1
2-10Iowa St. (106.2)B12A0-064%4.1
2-13Texas Tech (25.9)B12A0-034%-4.7
2-17Texas (46.5)B12H0-069%5.4
2-19Kansas (5.9)B12A0-022%-8.7
2-24Kansas St. (67.2)B12H0-070%5.8
2-27Baylor (58.5)B12A0-042%-2.1
3-2Iowa St. (106.2)B12H0-083%10.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Oklahoma's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Oklahoma's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Oklahoma.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
OklahomaB1226.6426.3280.0068.2015.989.58
TexasB120.544.2663.1658.670.140.74
Oklahoma St.B125.774.2670.5954.372.380.37
KansasB120.434.2384.2180.540.302.58
TCUB125.704.2382.3570.123.691.70
Texas TechB122.994.2383.3374.482.002.07
BaylorB120.514.2261.1156.790.110.57
Kansas St.B123.224.2072.2262.561.431.06
West VirginiaB123.074.2083.3378.252.052.37
Iowa St.B120.444.2061.1148.740.10-0.11
Wichita St.Amer2.921.7883.3380.031.951.07
Nebraska OmahaSum2.921.7726.3229.05-1.39-0.74
OregonP122.921.7568.4265.951.080.56
AlabamaSEC0.001.7568.4259.430.000.33
ArkansasSEC2.781.7566.6763.010.930.45
North TexasCUSA2.861.7347.0648.31-0.17-0.06
UTSACUSA2.851.7243.7541.12-0.36-0.31
NorthwesternB102.851.7257.8952.110.450.07
Northwestern St.Slnd2.781.727.6915.43-2.35-1.19
USCP122.851.7275.0070.571.420.71
Ball St.MAC2.851.6964.7160.780.840.37
PortlandWCC2.781.6729.4128.31-1.14-0.72
Texas A&MSEC0.290.3068.4263.980.110.08
TulsaAmer0.370.2555.0053.290.040.02
RiceCUSA0.330.2011.1117.69-0.26-0.13
Oral RobertsSum0.360.1930.0032.53-0.14-0.07
MissouriSEC0.150.1966.6763.200.050.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.220.1921.0544.26-0.12-0.02
Arizona St.P120.140.1978.9576.130.080.10
VanderbiltSEC0.140.1936.8435.55-0.04-0.05
SMUAmer0.380.1770.0070.630.150.07
Louisiana TechCUSA0.160.1752.6355.290.010.02
WashingtonP120.140.1670.0061.440.050.04
KentuckySEC0.000.1673.6867.950.000.06
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.1545.0049.27-0.01-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.140.1472.2272.970.060.06
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.150.1437.5037.68-0.04-0.03
NebraskaB100.230.1466.6759.780.080.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.150.1427.7834.50-0.06-0.04
FloridaSEC0.070.1473.6871.550.030.06
UCFAmer0.070.1468.4260.880.030.03
MississippiSEC0.070.1352.6345.860.00-0.01
StanfordP120.070.1355.0050.370.010.00
Washington St.P120.140.1350.0042.180.00-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.180.127.6923.28-0.15-0.06
UTEPCUSA0.160.1233.3334.11-0.05-0.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.230.125.8819.37-0.20-0.07
Western IllinoisSum0.070.1242.8635.25-0.01-0.03
UtahP120.230.1161.1158.950.050.02
GonzagaWCC0.080.1180.9583.260.050.08
PepperdineWCC0.150.1110.5318.34-0.12-0.07
South DakotaSum0.220.1173.6872.360.100.05
CharlotteCUSA0.220.1123.5325.63-0.12-0.05
Boise St.MWC0.150.1178.9576.970.080.06
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.1112.5025.470.00-0.05
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.1141.1839.130.00-0.02
WisconsinB100.000.1150.0046.260.00-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.220.1152.6347.390.01-0.01
MichiganB100.000.1175.0070.270.000.04
MinnesotaB100.140.1163.6457.640.040.02
TennesseeSEC0.070.1172.2268.920.030.04
ToledoMAC0.000.1166.6767.690.000.04
CaliforniaP120.140.1136.8431.12-0.04-0.04
AmericanPat0.150.1126.3228.14-0.07-0.05
ArizonaP120.070.1180.0078.980.040.06
AuburnSEC0.070.1189.4777.030.060.06
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1166.6755.930.000.01
LSUSEC0.070.1161.1153.160.020.01
NevadaMWC0.220.1185.7182.070.160.07
Oregon St.P120.140.1157.8950.810.020.00
PittsburghACC0.220.1140.0030.87-0.04-0.04
South CarolinaSEC0.000.1161.1151.900.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.1135.2940.480.00-0.02
UCLAP120.070.1165.0062.040.020.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.180.1028.5731.27-0.08-0.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.100.0943.7549.10-0.01-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.230.0963.1657.540.060.01
Southern MissCUSA0.160.0941.1838.46-0.03-0.02
FIUCUSA0.080.0935.2935.57-0.02-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.170.0952.9452.620.010.00
Colorado St.MWC0.240.0945.0041.34-0.02-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.250.0926.6729.04-0.11-0.04
BYUWCC0.080.0980.9576.230.050.05
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0944.4450.31-0.010.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.140.0933.3332.96-0.05-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0972.2274.700.030.04
DePaulBE0.220.0842.1134.32-0.03-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.220.0845.0048.56-0.02-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.220.0857.8953.190.030.01
CreightonBE0.070.0875.0070.690.030.03
IowaB100.000.0847.6244.030.00-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.220.0845.0045.02-0.02-0.01
HoustonAmer0.220.0878.9572.990.130.04
AkronMAC0.070.0847.0644.91-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0810.0019.62-0.06-0.05
UMKCWAC0.150.0821.0524.71-0.08-0.04
ColoradoP120.140.0860.0053.730.030.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.140.089.5217.94-0.12-0.05
LipscombASun0.000.0852.9459.360.000.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0872.2258.940.030.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0737.5045.220.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.100.0750.0051.480.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.100.0752.9455.040.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.100.0780.0078.860.060.04
DenverSum0.070.0633.3336.47-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.140.0655.0049.070.01-0.00
Fort WayneSum0.070.0652.6351.700.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.080.0627.7829.11-0.03-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.140.0650.0047.670.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.080.0645.0044.46-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0690.4888.940.000.05
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0650.0048.740.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0668.4263.640.000.02
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0678.9576.760.040.03
UABCUSA0.000.0661.1164.130.000.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0668.4270.810.000.02
Arkansas St.SB0.140.0627.7831.12-0.06-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.150.0638.8943.43-0.03-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.140.0656.2556.810.020.01
North CarolinaACC0.150.0680.0075.050.090.03
Portland St.BSky0.150.0658.8263.210.030.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.140.0670.5969.610.060.02
Georgia TechACC0.150.0652.6343.120.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.150.0644.4446.10-0.02-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0660.0062.030.020.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0633.3337.220.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0662.5058.700.020.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0689.4785.520.000.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0646.6746.98-0.01-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.0644.4444.860.00-0.01
MarylandB100.000.0670.0065.320.000.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0615.7920.920.00-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0645.0047.050.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0647.0652.510.000.00
Notre DameACC0.150.0663.1661.050.040.01
Penn St.B100.140.0661.9055.770.030.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.0627.7840.970.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.000.0652.6351.730.000.00
ValparaisoMVC0.150.0650.0051.360.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0652.9452.230.000.00
XavierBE0.000.0685.7180.080.000.03
BucknellPat0.150.0561.9068.010.040.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0565.0058.490.000.01
Austin PeayOVC0.150.0544.4445.98-0.02-0.00
BelmontOVC0.150.0571.4374.650.060.03
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0568.4255.060.030.01
ButlerBE0.000.0566.6763.070.000.01
DukeACC0.000.0589.4785.190.000.04
Florida St.ACC0.150.0573.6869.610.070.02
FordhamA100.070.0531.5829.06-0.03-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.140.0566.6763.420.050.01
George WashingtonA100.070.0545.0043.49-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0516.6724.91-0.05-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0540.0043.34-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.070.0510.5314.86-0.06-0.04
MaristMAAC0.070.0521.0521.99-0.04-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.150.050.0010.65-0.15-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0529.4139.62-0.03-0.01
New HampshireAE0.000.0529.4138.150.00-0.01
NJITASun0.070.0538.8942.60-0.02-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.0511.1115.30-0.06-0.04
OaklandHorz0.000.0561.9065.160.000.02
Seton HallBE0.070.0575.0067.890.040.02
South AlabamaSB0.070.0550.0045.900.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.070.0542.1143.50-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.150.0566.6768.700.050.02
SyracuseACC0.000.0568.4261.270.000.01
UC IrvineBW0.070.0530.0039.93-0.03-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.070.0511.1117.96-0.06-0.03
VCUA100.000.0560.0059.690.000.01
VirginiaACC0.070.0594.4485.440.060.04
William & MaryCAA0.150.0564.7159.980.040.01
WoffordSC0.070.0568.7563.620.030.01
YaleIvy0.150.0541.1847.51-0.03-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.037.6920.090.00-0.02
LamarSlnd0.000.0350.0054.850.000.00
BradleyMVC0.080.0365.0057.870.020.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.080.0327.7838.13-0.04-0.01
HartfordAE0.080.0352.6346.880.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.080.0325.0028.25-0.04-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.070.0377.7869.360.040.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.080.0316.6724.46-0.05-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.080.0311.7612.81-0.06-0.02
SeattleWAC0.080.0357.8954.500.010.00
Texas St.SB0.080.0357.8950.210.010.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.080.0366.6766.010.030.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0350.0052.440.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.080.0368.4254.090.030.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.0336.8444.12-0.02-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0358.8249.760.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.070.0350.0045.130.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.080.0372.2274.900.030.01
Chicago St.WAC0.070.030.003.12-0.07-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0366.6765.620.020.01
DaytonA100.080.0347.3750.95-0.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0342.1132.48-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0357.8966.250.010.01
IllinoisB100.070.0347.3744.27-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.070.0357.8950.680.010.00
IUPUIHorz0.080.0327.7829.84-0.03-0.01
La SalleA100.070.0340.0042.72-0.01-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.070.0322.2228.67-0.04-0.01
MarquetteBE0.070.0368.4260.530.030.01
Miami OHMAC0.080.0347.0641.45-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0385.0083.180.000.02
North FloridaASun0.080.0331.5835.15-0.03-0.01
OhioMAC0.080.0347.0648.44-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.070.0380.9576.520.040.01
PurdueB100.070.0390.4888.380.060.02
RutgersB100.000.0357.8947.140.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.070.0330.0033.49-0.03-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0344.4448.91-0.01-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.070.0335.0026.14-0.02-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.080.0338.8946.68-0.02-0.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0363.1657.900.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.0310.5316.750.00-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0316.6724.29-0.05-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0329.4133.22-0.03-0.01
LehighPat0.070.0338.8944.75-0.01-0.00
MercerSC0.000.0344.4454.890.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.0383.3384.230.040.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0321.0539.47-0.04-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.070.0352.9460.270.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0383.3381.410.000.02
SamfordSC0.070.0327.7832.66-0.03-0.01
TroySB0.070.0335.2942.76-0.02-0.00