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Through games of Dec 6, 2016.


Oklahoma

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:80.5
Current RPI:130
Expected SOS:13
Current SOS:234
Current Record:5-2
Expected Record:14-16
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:5-2
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:86
Expected OOC SOS:70



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-710.00.02%
22-811.70.03%
21-917.90.17%
20-1024.50.65%
19-1129.51.82%
18-1237.24.79%
17-1346.38.61%
16-1457.513.61%
15-1569.818.13%
14-1683.518.43%
13-1798.515.23%
12-18114.410.06%
11-19129.85.19%
10-20145.22.50%
9-21162.60.66%
8-22173.70.06%
7-23191.30.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Oklahoma.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Northwestern St. (259.4)SlndH97-61W100%0.0
11-17Tulane (284.4)AmerN89-70W100%0.0
11-18Northern Iowa (119.2)MVCN67-73L0%0.0
11-20Clemson (72.1)ACCN70-64W100%0.0
11-25Abilene Christian (189.3)SlndH72-64W100%0.0
11-29Northern Colorado (281.3)BSkyH87-66W100%0.0
12-3Wisconsin (22.3)B10A90-70L0%0.0
12-7Oral Roberts (290.1)SumH0-096%21.1
12-10Wichita St. (34.3)MVCN0-023%-8.9
12-17Memphis (138.5)AmerH0-078%9.2
12-21Auburn (86.4)SECN0-063%3.8
12-30Baylor (8.9)B12H0-034%-4.8
1-3TCU (48.5)B12A0-035%-4.6
1-7Kansas St. (87.0)B12A0-039%-3.3
1-10Kansas (6.4)B12H0-025%-8.1
1-14Texas Tech (72.4)B12H0-054%1.1
1-18West Virginia (12.4)B12A0-08%-16.6
1-21Iowa St. (25.8)B12H0-030%-6.2
1-23Texas (118.2)B12A0-049%-0.3
1-28Florida (11.5)SECH0-039%-3.4
1-30Oklahoma St. (57.9)B12H0-053%1.0
2-4Texas Tech (72.4)B12A0-033%-5.2
2-8West Virginia (12.4)B12H0-019%-10.3
2-11Iowa St. (25.8)B12A0-015%-12.4
2-14Texas (118.2)B12H0-069%6.0
2-18Oklahoma St. (57.9)B12A0-033%-5.3
2-21Baylor (8.9)B12A0-018%-11.1
2-25Kansas St. (87.0)B12H0-060%2.9
2-27Kansas (6.4)B12A0-012%-14.4
3-4TCU (48.5)B12H0-055%1.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Oklahoma's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Oklahoma's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Oklahoma.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
OklahomaB1228.9726.3370.3744.0311.80-3.15
Texas TechB120.004.2387.5062.020.001.02
BaylorB120.004.23100.0076.220.002.22
Oklahoma St.B120.004.2371.4353.810.000.32
TCUB120.004.23100.0061.390.000.96
KansasB120.004.2188.8977.170.002.29
Kansas St.B120.004.2188.8957.130.000.60
TexasB120.004.2150.0038.590.00-0.96
West VirginiaB120.004.2185.7183.060.002.78
Iowa St.B120.004.2075.0070.910.001.76
AuburnSEC0.001.8085.7157.940.000.29
Wichita St.MVC0.001.7877.7886.970.001.32
MemphisAmer0.001.7275.0057.410.000.26
Northern IowaMVC7.141.7220.0050.73-4.290.03
Oral RobertsSum0.001.720.0023.45-0.00-0.91
TulaneAmer7.141.7214.2924.64-5.10-0.87
Abilene ChristianSlnd7.141.7050.0057.090.000.24
Northwestern St.Slnd7.141.7025.0043.90-3.57-0.21
FloridaSEC0.001.6977.7873.330.000.79
ClemsonACC7.141.6783.3356.444.760.21
Northern ColoradoBSky7.141.6720.0041.87-4.29-0.27
WisconsinB107.141.6775.0075.773.570.86
GeorgiaSEC0.510.2457.1451.810.070.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.2325.0042.78-0.00-0.03
TulsaAmer0.000.2250.0037.700.00-0.05
Central ArkansasSlnd0.400.2212.5030.51-0.30-0.08
MississippiSEC0.000.1975.0047.990.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.1987.5069.040.000.07
New OrleansSlnd0.450.1840.0041.72-0.09-0.03
BradleyMVC0.000.1737.5025.74-0.00-0.08
DrakeMVC0.000.170.0020.21-0.00-0.10
Illinois St.MVC0.000.1760.0067.820.000.06
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1742.8650.98-0.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1737.5050.92-0.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.840.1787.5081.910.630.11
SMUAmer0.000.1666.6766.650.000.05
ConnecticutAmer0.000.1642.8644.90-0.00-0.02
TempleAmer0.000.1675.0064.820.000.05
AlabamaSEC0.000.1657.1451.740.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.1671.4347.690.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.1650.0059.840.000.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.450.1642.8650.33-0.060.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.1650.0057.950.000.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.1660.0062.420.000.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.150.0017.92-0.00-0.10
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.1542.8637.05-0.00-0.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.1471.4358.830.000.03
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1460.0058.900.000.03
XavierBE1.700.1487.5070.881.280.06
Idaho St.BSky0.000.1412.5029.77-0.00-0.06
MissouriSEC1.160.1462.5044.840.29-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.710.1471.4365.470.310.04
Michigan St.B100.000.1460.0058.780.000.02
IowaB100.000.1444.4438.41-0.00-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.000.1487.5082.440.000.09
MarylandB100.000.1487.5059.030.000.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.1455.5646.770.00-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.140.0038.43-0.00-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.000.14100.0078.180.000.08
KentuckySEC0.000.1387.5082.220.000.09
TennesseeSEC0.400.1350.0044.700.00-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.120.0038.78-0.00-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.1225.0040.17-0.00-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.000.1250.0045.130.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1257.1449.420.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.000.110.0016.33-0.00-0.08
Colorado St.MWC0.000.1171.4360.090.000.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.1187.5075.690.000.06
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.1150.0066.380.000.04
WashingtonP120.000.1157.1452.140.000.00
Miami FLACC0.000.1177.7866.740.000.04
HoustonAmer0.000.1175.0075.180.000.06
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.110.0025.17-0.00-0.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.1111.1149.12-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.1157.1433.200.00-0.04
UNLVMWC0.000.1162.5042.780.00-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.1157.1429.760.00-0.04
DukeACC0.000.1190.0080.060.000.07
NebraskaB100.510.1157.1444.830.07-0.01
IndianaB100.000.1187.5074.510.000.05
MichiganB100.000.1177.7865.840.000.03
UMKCWAC0.000.1155.5649.660.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.000.1042.8640.38-0.00-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.1025.0055.44-0.000.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.100.0022.30-0.00-0.05
North DakotaBSky0.000.0933.3355.64-0.000.01
DenverSum0.000.0942.8645.65-0.00-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0916.6729.83-0.00-0.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.710.0975.0047.520.36-0.00
New HampshireAE0.710.0962.5062.120.180.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0975.0070.570.000.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0871.4355.680.000.01
RichmondA100.000.0850.0048.500.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.450.0857.1436.370.06-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.0840.0058.88-0.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0870.0050.010.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0857.1471.170.000.03
Florida St.ACC0.000.0888.8967.470.000.03
GeorgetownBE0.400.0855.5647.600.04-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.000.08100.0092.200.000.07
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0814.2943.08-0.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.080.0019.08-0.00-0.05
DavidsonA100.510.0871.4362.990.220.02
Saint LouisA100.000.0825.0023.99-0.00-0.04
UCFAmer0.000.0885.7175.800.000.04
VirginiaACC0.000.0888.8978.430.000.05
MercerSC0.000.0842.8647.68-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0850.0050.980.000.00
Green BayHorz0.000.0837.5048.85-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.000.0866.6751.140.000.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0875.0066.090.000.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.400.0812.5033.18-0.30-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth1.430.0720.0038.50-0.86-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0611.1120.27-0.00-0.04
Portland St.BSky0.000.0640.0043.88-0.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.060.0025.31-0.00-0.03
Weber St.BSky0.000.0616.6749.78-0.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.000.0625.0048.70-0.00-0.00
Fort WayneSum0.000.0662.5070.890.000.02
IUPUISum0.000.0633.3351.57-0.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0657.1459.020.000.01
South DakotaSum0.000.0650.0046.820.00-0.00
Arizona St.P121.040.0655.5637.870.12-0.01
CreightonBE0.400.06100.0076.540.400.03
Little RockSB0.000.0666.6761.400.000.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0612.5033.31-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.060.0023.90-0.00-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0675.0066.120.000.02
CampbellBSth0.000.0642.8639.64-0.00-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0650.0045.920.00-0.00
OregonP120.000.0675.0072.800.000.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0026.22-0.00-0.03
The CitadelSC0.000.0650.0030.320.00-0.02
VCUA100.000.0675.0072.930.000.03
Virginia TechACC0.000.0685.7162.500.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0677.7855.180.000.01
WoffordSC0.000.060.0034.69-0.00-0.02
SyracuseACC0.400.0562.5062.080.100.01
ColoradoP120.000.0575.0062.450.000.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0533.3351.98-0.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0514.2942.77-0.00-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0557.1454.200.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0520.0021.92-0.00-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0522.2232.01-0.00-0.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0588.8966.920.000.02
North FloridaASun0.000.0512.5034.49-0.00-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.0533.3331.35-0.00-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0557.1453.860.000.00
Ohio St.B100.000.0577.7862.010.000.01
PurdueB100.000.0577.7877.640.000.03
RadfordBSth0.000.0528.5734.49-0.00-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0530.0045.49-0.00-0.00
RutgersB100.000.0587.5050.250.000.00
SienaMAAC0.000.0533.3350.05-0.000.00
StanfordP120.000.0566.6758.600.000.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0562.5071.850.000.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0562.5067.590.000.02
Utah St.MWC0.000.0542.8650.57-0.000.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0525.0029.90-0.00-0.02
VMISC0.000.050.0016.56-0.00-0.04
Washington St.P120.000.0542.8629.20-0.00-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0528.5723.02-0.00-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.710.0362.5058.130.180.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0385.7153.770.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.710.0320.0035.46-0.43-0.01
ArizonaP120.600.0377.7870.290.330.01
BucknellPat0.600.0370.0070.530.240.01
ButlerBE0.600.03100.0074.830.600.02
IdahoBSky0.000.0350.0053.130.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.0342.8656.48-0.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.600.0344.4438.15-0.07-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.600.0333.3332.79-0.20-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.030.0031.31-0.00-0.01
George MasonA100.600.0362.5046.490.15-0.00
OaklandHorz0.000.0385.7177.000.000.02
WyomingMWC0.600.0366.6753.730.200.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.510.030.0017.16-0.51-0.02
High PointBSth0.510.0337.5044.87-0.13-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0034.54-0.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0375.0050.980.000.00
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0076.970.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0375.0048.980.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0320.0017.37-0.00-0.02
St. John'sBE0.450.0344.4436.20-0.05-0.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0350.0044.180.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0383.3377.290.000.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0357.1464.500.000.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0362.5050.630.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.400.0320.0022.08-0.24-0.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0325.0038.98-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0022.47-0.00-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0350.0061.350.000.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0377.7864.250.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0337.5037.96-0.00-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0377.7872.210.000.01
Penn St.B100.000.0366.6746.170.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.0377.7859.940.000.01
Seton HallBE0.000.0375.0054.480.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0375.0070.350.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0344.4441.55-0.00-0.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0320.0022.88-0.00-0.01