Oklahoma

Conference:	B12
Expected RPI:	89.8
Current RPI:	77
Expected SOS:	40
Current SOS:	34
Current Record:	13-9
Expected Record:	16-14
Current Conf Record:	3-7
Expected Conf Record:	6-12
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.65%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-0
Current OOC Record:	10-2
Expected OOC Record:	10-2
Expected OOC RPI:	52
Expected OOC SOS:	183

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
21-9	35.2	0.06%
20-10	44.6	0.40%
19-11	55.5	3.73%
18-12	67.9	14.23%
17-13	81.8	27.87%
16-14	95.2	30.85%
15-15	108.7	17.20%
14-16	122.7	5.14%
13-17	136.9	0.51%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Oklahoma.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Idaho St. (259.8)	BSky	H	78-74	W	100%	0.0
11-18	Coppin St. (214.5)	MEAC	H	92-65	W	100%	0.0
11-24	Washington St. (164.6)	P12	N	59-74	W	100%	0.0
11-25	Santa Clara (271.9)	WCC	N	73-85	W	100%	0.0
11-27	St. Louis (32.0)	A10	N	83-63	L	0%	0.0
12-2	Sacramento St. (305.2)	BSky	H	82-53	W	100%	0.0
12-8	Oral Roberts (43.6)	Sum	H	73-59	W	100%	0.0
12-10	Arkansas (65.9)	SEC	H	78-63	W	100%	0.0
12-17	Houston (233.1)	CUSA	N	79-74	W	100%	0.0
12-21	South Carolina St. (337.8)	MEAC	H	83-48	W	100%	0.0
12-29	Cincinnati (89.8)	BE	A	56-55	L	0%	0.0
12-31	Northwestern St. (178.3)	Slnd	H	83-63	W	100%	0.0
1-3	Missouri (11.7)	B12	A	87-49	L	0%	0.0
1-7	Kansas (8.8)	B12	H	61-72	L	0%	0.0
1-9	Oklahoma St. (120.3)	B12	A	72-65	L	0%	0.0
1-14	Kansas St. (45.9)	B12	H	82-73	W	100%	0.0
1-17	Texas Tech (233.7)	B12	H	64-55	W	100%	0.0
1-21	Texas A&M (154.9)	B12	A	81-75	L	0%	0.0
1-24	Baylor (6.8)	B12	H	65-77	L	0%	0.0
1-28	Kansas St. (45.9)	B12	A	60-63	W	100%	0.0
2-1	Kansas (8.8)	B12	A	84-62	L	0%	0.0
2-4	Iowa St. (39.6)	B12	H	70-77	L	0%	0.0
2-6	Missouri (11.7)	B12	H	0-0		26%	-7.1
2-11	Texas Tech (233.7)	B12	A	0-0		77%	8.0
2-14	Texas (58.4)	B12	H	0-0		40%	-2.8
2-18	Iowa St. (39.6)	B12	A	0-0		26%	-7.0
2-22	Oklahoma St. (120.3)	B12	H	0-0		68%	5.0
2-25	Baylor (6.8)	B12	A	0-0		14%	-12.0
2-29	Texas (58.4)	B12	A	0-0		19%	-9.6
3-3	Texas A&M (154.9)	B12	H	0-0		72%	6.4

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Oklahoma's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Oklahoma's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Oklahoma.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Oklahoma	B12	26.35	26.34	54.44	50.82	2.34	0.43
Missouri	B12	2.79	4.25	90.91	87.18	2.28	3.16
Baylor	B12	2.84	4.24	90.48	83.18	2.30	2.81
Texas Tech	B12	2.83	4.24	33.33	27.01	-0.94	-1.95
Iowa St.	B12	2.78	4.22	72.73	67.16	1.26	1.45
Kansas	B12	4.95	4.22	76.19	76.90	2.60	2.27
Texas	B12	0.61	4.22	60.87	60.74	0.13	0.91
Kansas St.	B12	4.95	4.21	80.00	73.15	2.97	1.95
Oklahoma St.	B12	2.74	4.21	42.86	38.89	-0.39	-0.94
Texas A&M	B12	2.78	4.21	50.00	44.82	0.00	-0.44
South Carolina St.	MEAC	2.38	1.76	10.53	15.48	-1.88	-1.21
Sacramento St.	BSky	2.38	1.75	31.58	34.53	-0.88	-0.54
Northwestern St.	Slnd	2.37	1.75	57.89	56.49	0.37	0.23
Idaho St.	BSky	2.33	1.73	35.00	35.14	-0.70	-0.51
Washington St.	P12	2.38	1.73	52.38	49.89	0.11	-0.00
Oral Roberts	Sum	2.32	1.72	84.00	83.44	1.58	1.15
Arkansas	SEC	2.33	1.70	72.73	67.32	1.06	0.59
Cincinnati	BE	2.33	1.70	68.18	64.32	0.85	0.49
Coppin St.	MEAC	2.33	1.70	44.44	51.89	-0.26	0.06
Santa Clara	WCC	2.32	1.70	30.00	27.32	-0.93	-0.77
Houston	CUSA	2.32	1.69	50.00	46.28	0.00	-0.13
St. Louis	A10	2.27	1.67	76.19	76.88	1.19	0.90
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.27	0.23	18.18	21.13	-0.17	-0.13
Rice	CUSA	0.10	0.22	47.62	46.46	-0.00	-0.02
Howard	MEAC	0.32	0.21	18.18	22.22	-0.20	-0.11
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.21	0.20	78.26	72.34	0.12	0.09
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.27	0.18	30.00	31.54	-0.11	-0.07
New Mexico	MWC	0.26	0.17	81.82	81.03	0.17	0.11
Villanova	BE	0.20	0.17	45.45	46.08	-0.02	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.21	0.17	56.52	55.20	0.03	0.02
UCLA	P12	0.15	0.16	54.55	56.79	0.01	0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.20	0.16	68.18	69.10	0.07	0.06
West Virginia	BE	0.25	0.16	65.22	65.17	0.08	0.05
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.17	0.15	40.91	44.03	-0.03	-0.02
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.21	0.15	59.09	57.76	0.04	0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.11	0.15	38.10	42.78	-0.03	-0.02
North Dakota	GWC	0.26	0.15	33.33	41.31	-0.09	-0.03
Texas St.	Slnd	0.17	0.14	22.22	27.62	-0.09	-0.06
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.11	0.14	47.06	50.75	-0.01	0.00
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.21	0.14	57.14	60.75	0.03	0.03
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.16	0.14	27.78	29.58	-0.07	-0.06
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.15	0.14	38.10	37.86	-0.04	-0.03
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.14	26.32	29.79	-0.03	-0.06
Grambling	SWAC	0.21	0.14	15.00	15.73	-0.14	-0.10
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.05	0.14	76.19	75.94	0.03	0.07
Montana	BSky	0.11	0.12	70.00	73.28	0.04	0.06
Montana St.	BSky	0.17	0.12	45.00	41.76	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.17	0.12	13.64	16.14	-0.12	-0.08
Portland St.	BSky	0.05	0.12	42.86	45.80	-0.01	-0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.22	0.12	80.00	76.84	0.13	0.07
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.11	0.12	33.33	37.25	-0.04	-0.03
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.10	0.12	20.00	19.96	-0.06	-0.07
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.22	0.12	52.38	57.86	0.01	0.02
Portland	WCC	0.21	0.12	21.74	21.70	-0.12	-0.07
Gonzaga	WCC	0.15	0.12	81.82	81.49	0.10	0.07
Brigham Young	WCC	0.11	0.12	75.00	76.00	0.05	0.06
St. Mary's	WCC	0.11	0.12	90.91	87.74	0.09	0.09
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.21	0.12	43.48	43.31	-0.03	-0.02
Tulsa	CUSA	0.11	0.12	60.87	59.05	0.02	0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.06	0.11	25.00	23.75	-0.03	-0.06
Pittsburgh	BE	0.16	0.11	60.87	58.16	0.03	0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.11	63.64	63.16	0.01	0.03
Southern California	P12	0.15	0.11	25.00	25.13	-0.08	-0.06
St. John's	BE	0.10	0.11	43.48	40.28	-0.01	-0.02
Xavier	A10	0.14	0.11	65.22	63.74	0.04	0.03
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.15	0.11	31.82	42.13	-0.06	-0.02
Oakland	Sum	0.19	0.11	48.00	50.21	-0.01	0.00
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.14	0.11	17.39	24.41	-0.09	-0.06
Long Beach St.	BW	0.20	0.11	71.43	73.35	0.09	0.05
North Texas	SB	0.05	0.11	50.00	50.01	0.00	0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.10	0.11	35.00	40.78	-0.03	-0.02
Hampton	MEAC	0.18	0.10	36.36	38.48	-0.05	-0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.12	0.10	25.00	37.58	-0.06	-0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.18	0.10	68.18	69.68	0.06	0.04
San Jose St.	WAC	0.11	0.10	27.27	26.95	-0.05	-0.04
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.06	0.09	38.89	43.93	-0.01	-0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.17	0.09	27.78	29.87	-0.08	-0.04
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.11	0.09	41.18	42.61	-0.02	-0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.11	0.09	31.82	33.83	-0.04	-0.03
Charlotte	A10	0.16	0.09	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.11	0.09	47.83	47.87	-0.00	-0.00
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.11	0.09	8.70	8.99	-0.09	-0.07
Connecticut	BE	0.16	0.09	68.18	63.99	0.06	0.02
Illinois	B10	0.11	0.09	72.73	64.43	0.05	0.03
Towson	CAA	0.16	0.09	4.00	5.26	-0.15	-0.08
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.16	0.09	43.48	44.25	-0.02	-0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.11	0.09	59.09	59.72	0.02	0.02
Washington	P12	0.10	0.09	69.57	66.54	0.04	0.03
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.11	0.09	47.62	47.18	-0.01	-0.00
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.16	0.09	30.00	37.30	-0.06	-0.02
Texas Christian	MWC	0.11	0.09	57.14	49.54	0.02	-0.00
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.08	82.61	77.63	0.04	0.05
George Washington	A10	0.15	0.08	34.78	32.08	-0.05	-0.03
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.15	0.08	34.78	32.06	-0.05	-0.03
Stanford	P12	0.10	0.08	69.57	68.29	0.04	0.03
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.11	0.08	8.70	11.67	-0.09	-0.06
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.15	0.08	59.09	57.28	0.03	0.01
California	P12	0.10	0.08	75.00	74.61	0.05	0.04
Rhode Island	A10	0.00	0.08	20.83	20.60	-0.00	-0.05
Temple	A10	0.05	0.08	77.27	75.06	0.03	0.04
DePaul	BE	0.10	0.08	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.10	0.08	54.17	57.20	0.01	0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.15	0.08	80.95	77.38	0.09	0.04
Kentucky	SEC	0.15	0.08	95.83	92.57	0.14	0.07
Michigan	B10	0.10	0.08	72.73	66.81	0.04	0.03
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.10	0.08	50.00	58.16	0.00	0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.10	0.08	65.22	62.65	0.03	0.02
Providence	BE	0.05	0.08	56.52	50.27	0.01	0.00
South Florida	BE	0.10	0.08	54.55	48.60	0.01	-0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.00	0.06	35.29	39.85	-0.00	-0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.49	0.01	0.02
San Diego	WCC	0.11	0.06	33.33	33.82	-0.04	-0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.05	0.06	56.52	53.77	0.01	0.00
Pacific	BW	0.05	0.06	35.00	37.47	-0.02	-0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.06	0.06	19.05	22.37	-0.04	-0.03
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.11	0.06	34.78	38.77	-0.03	-0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.06	0.06	61.90	67.23	0.01	0.02
Longwood	ind	0.06	0.06	30.00	27.84	-0.02	-0.03
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.06	61.90	58.59	0.01	0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.11	0.06	76.19	70.73	0.06	0.02
Utah	P12	0.11	0.06	18.18	15.01	-0.07	-0.04
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.06	16.67	23.02	-0.04	-0.03
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.06	66.67	68.55	0.02	0.02
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.06	30.43	31.43	-0.02	-0.02
Dayton	A10	0.10	0.06	60.87	60.96	0.02	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.06	59.09	56.35	0.01	0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.06	27.27	27.21	-0.02	-0.03
Oregon	P12	0.05	0.06	69.57	64.53	0.02	0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.06	45.00	46.13	-0.01	-0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.11	0.06	34.78	38.42	-0.03	-0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.11	0.06	42.86	43.45	-0.02	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.06	0.06	40.91	39.56	-0.01	-0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.10	0.06	54.55	57.69	0.01	0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.10	0.06	55.00	60.33	0.01	0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.05	0.06	56.52	54.22	0.01	0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.05	0.06	19.05	25.52	-0.03	-0.03
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.10	0.06	19.05	21.29	-0.06	-0.03
North Florida	ASun	0.10	0.06	45.83	46.68	-0.01	-0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.06	61.90	55.14	0.01	0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.05	0.06	85.71	78.05	0.04	0.03
Troy	SB	0.05	0.06	28.57	30.17	-0.02	-0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.06	47.83	43.66	-0.00	-0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.05	56.52	48.81	0.01	-0.00
Binghamton	AE	0.05	0.05	0.00	4.02	-0.05	-0.05
Boston University	AE	0.00	0.05	48.00	51.88	-0.00	0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	28.57	34.20	-0.02	-0.02
Davidson	SC	0.10	0.05	76.19	76.76	0.05	0.03
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.05	52.17	50.09	0.00	0.00
Duke	ACC	0.10	0.05	86.36	83.09	0.07	0.04
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.10	0.05	36.36	39.72	-0.03	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	45.45	41.20	-0.00	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	54.17	49.44	0.00	-0.00
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.04	0.05	35.00	35.31	-0.01	-0.02
IUPUI	Sum	0.04	0.05	34.78	35.50	-0.01	-0.02
Lehigh	Pat	0.05	0.05	73.91	74.91	0.02	0.03
Lipscomb	ASun	0.05	0.05	43.48	43.82	-0.01	-0.01
Marquette	BE	0.00	0.05	79.17	75.98	0.00	0.03
Mercer	ASun	0.05	0.05	70.83	71.64	0.02	0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.05	63.64	56.71	0.01	0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.09	0.05	34.78	35.20	-0.03	-0.02
Navy	Pat	0.05	0.05	9.52	13.19	-0.04	-0.04
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.05	37.50	41.54	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.00	0.05	86.96	83.16	0.00	0.04
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.00	0.05	70.83	64.42	0.00	0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.09	0.05	61.90	63.52	0.02	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.05	62.50	61.50	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.10	0.05	86.96	85.46	0.07	0.04
Old Dominion	CAA	0.05	0.05	60.00	58.29	0.01	0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.09	0.05	26.32	28.83	-0.04	-0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.09	0.05	73.91	75.49	0.04	0.03
Southern Utah	Sum	0.04	0.05	45.45	44.30	-0.00	-0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.05	0.05	34.78	37.24	-0.02	-0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.04	0.05	52.63	48.41	0.00	-0.00
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.05	12.50	13.44	-0.04	-0.04
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.06	0.03	77.27	73.45	0.03	0.02
Purdue	B10	0.06	0.03	65.22	60.58	0.02	0.01
Cal Poly	BW	0.06	0.03	50.00	56.76	0.00	0.00
UC Davis	BW	0.06	0.03	0.00	5.37	-0.06	-0.03
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.05	0.03	21.05	22.46	-0.03	-0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.03	40.91	38.38	-0.01	-0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.05	0.03	25.00	28.52	-0.03	-0.01
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.05	0.03	55.56	58.01	0.01	0.00
Wagner	NEC	0.05	0.03	82.61	84.57	0.04	0.02
Boise St.	MWC	0.05	0.03	42.86	41.13	-0.01	-0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.00	0.03	56.00	55.65	0.00	0.00
Central Florida	CUSA	0.05	0.03	71.43	66.60	0.02	0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.05	0.03	44.44	41.71	-0.01	-0.00
Georgia St.	CAA	0.06	0.03	66.67	69.69	0.02	0.01
Hawaii	WAC	0.06	0.03	57.14	53.12	0.01	0.00
Memphis	CUSA	0.05	0.03	69.57	71.51	0.02	0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.00	0.03	85.71	82.18	0.00	0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.03	40.91	39.82	-0.01	-0.01
Utah St.	WAC	0.05	0.03	50.00	52.93	0.00	0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.06	0.03	81.82	76.80	0.04	0.02
Arkansas St.	SB	0.05	0.03	37.50	38.33	-0.01	-0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.03	30.43	26.44	-0.02	-0.01
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.03	66.67	62.65	0.02	0.01
Fordham	A10	0.00	0.03	40.91	34.50	-0.00	-0.01
Idaho	WAC	0.05	0.03	47.62	51.08	-0.00	0.00
La Salle	A10	0.00	0.03	70.83	68.82	0.00	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.03	73.91	68.58	0.02	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.00	0.03	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.03	60.00	59.06	0.01	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	56.52	53.10	0.01	0.00
UC Riverside	BW	0.05	0.03	42.86	39.66	-0.01	-0.01
Vermont	AE	0.05	0.03	60.00	62.49	0.01	0.01
Akron	MAC	0.00	0.03	68.18	67.91	0.00	0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.04	0.03	33.33	35.97	-0.01	-0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.05	0.03	4.76	9.95	-0.04	-0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.03	50.00	51.73	0.00	0.00
Florida International	SB	0.04	0.03	33.33	37.16	-0.01	-0.01
Louisville	BE	0.00	0.03	78.26	72.66	0.00	0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.03	30.00	34.15	-0.02	-0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.05	0.03	40.91	43.66	-0.01	-0.00
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.03	8.70	13.10	-0.04	-0.02
Rutgers	BE	0.05	0.03	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.00	0.03	65.22	63.74	0.00	0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.05	0.03	54.55	56.09	0.00	0.00
Syracuse	BE	0.05	0.03	95.83	92.01	0.05	0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.00	0.03	45.45	44.66	-0.00	-0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.03	69.57	65.87	0.02	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.03	41.67	40.61	-0.01	-0.01