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Through games of Nov 21, 2014.


Oklahoma

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:52.4
Current RPI:180
Expected SOS:15
Current SOS:178
Current Record:1-1
Expected Record:17-11
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-0
Current OOC Record:1-1
Expected OOC Record:7-3
Expected OOC RPI:69
Expected OOC SOS:131



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-43.20.05%
23-55.00.25%
22-68.11.04%
21-712.22.71%
20-816.65.62%
19-923.810.53%
18-1032.414.36%
17-1142.617.25%
16-1255.016.51%
15-1368.813.47%
14-1485.89.61%
13-15103.65.08%
12-16121.82.39%
11-17143.70.78%
10-18160.00.25%
9-19186.90.08%
8-20202.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Oklahoma.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Southeastern Louisiana (266.4)SlndH78-53W100%0.0
11-19Creighton (101.0)BEA65-63L0%0.0
11-23Northwestern St. (190.3)SlndH0-092%16.6
11-26UCLA (55.7)P12N0-052%0.6
12-5Missouri (99.0)SECH0-074%7.6
12-13Tulsa (112.6)AmerA0-060%3.0
12-16Oral Roberts (161.1)SumH0-088%13.9
12-20Washington (98.0)P12N0-064%4.3
12-22Weber St. (183.0)BSkyH0-089%14.7
12-31George Mason (223.1)A10H0-094%19.0
1-3Baylor (28.6)B12H0-056%1.9
1-5Texas (3.9)B12A0-014%-12.7
1-10Kansas St. (86.6)B12H0-068%5.8
1-13West Virginia (30.9)B12A0-035%-4.6
1-17Oklahoma St. (75.5)B12H0-070%6.2
1-19Kansas (27.4)B12A0-035%-4.8
1-24Baylor (28.6)B12A0-033%-5.3
1-28Texas Tech (173.3)B12H0-085%12.2
1-31Oklahoma St. (75.5)B12A0-047%-1.0
2-3West Virginia (30.9)B12H0-058%2.6
2-7TCU (162.7)B12A0-060%2.9
2-9Iowa St. (58.8)B12H0-063%4.1
2-14Kansas St. (86.6)B12A0-045%-1.4
2-17Texas (3.9)B12H0-032%-5.5
2-21Texas Tech (173.3)B12A0-066%5.0
2-28TCU (162.7)B12H0-080%10.1
3-2Iowa St. (58.8)B12A0-040%-3.0
3-7Kansas (27.4)B12H0-058%2.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Oklahoma's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Oklahoma's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Oklahoma.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
OklahomaB1235.4226.4150.0057.370.003.89
Oklahoma St.B126.254.60100.0054.816.250.44
Texas TechB120.004.5850.0044.910.00-0.47
West VirginiaB120.004.58100.0069.670.001.80
TexasB120.004.55100.0084.640.003.15
TCUB120.004.54100.0055.960.000.54
BaylorB120.004.54100.0069.950.001.81
Iowa St.B120.004.54100.0062.230.001.11
KansasB120.004.5450.0060.680.000.97
Kansas St.B120.004.5466.6756.130.000.56
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd25.001.920.0042.93-25.00-0.27
Northwestern St.Slnd0.001.910.0055.07-0.000.19
Oral RobertsSum0.001.8833.3351.23-0.000.05
MissouriSEC0.001.8866.6751.230.000.05
TulsaAmer0.001.8566.6752.440.000.09
George MasonA100.001.8525.0022.70-0.00-1.01
Weber St.BSky0.001.820.0057.46-0.000.27
CreightonBE25.001.82100.0054.2925.000.16
UCLAP120.001.82100.0062.340.000.45
WashingtonP120.001.82100.0057.210.000.26
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.250.0045.64-0.00-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.240.0038.83-0.00-0.05
MemphisAmer0.000.220.0065.36-0.000.07
Oregon St.P120.000.22100.0050.080.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.2266.6764.990.000.07
South CarolinaSEC0.000.2250.0055.220.000.02
KentuckySEC0.000.21100.0086.080.000.15
New OrleansSlnd0.000.190.0034.37-0.00-0.06
UtahP120.000.1966.6770.360.000.08
CaliforniaP120.000.1875.0073.240.000.09
StanfordP120.000.18100.0068.290.000.07
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.160.0035.31-0.00-0.05
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.160.0067.54-0.000.06
Central ArkansasSlnd4.170.160.0020.87-4.17-0.09
ArkansasSEC0.000.16100.0074.210.000.08
Missouri St.MVC0.000.16100.0057.620.000.02
Washington St.P120.000.1533.3327.05-0.00-0.07
UMKCWAC0.000.1550.0059.030.000.03
North TexasCUSA0.000.15100.0046.320.00-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.1566.6742.560.00-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.1533.3352.91-0.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.1566.6756.820.000.02
Southern UtahBSky0.000.130.0024.22-0.00-0.07
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.130.0029.61-0.00-0.05
LamarSlnd0.000.130.0033.17-0.00-0.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1350.0035.570.00-0.04
TulaneAmer0.000.1350.0033.930.00-0.04
ColoradoP120.000.13100.0068.420.000.05
OregonP120.000.13100.0070.690.000.05
TempleAmer0.000.1366.6760.730.000.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1233.3347.78-0.00-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.12100.0055.900.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.120.0045.55-0.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.120.0038.27-0.00-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.000.12100.0075.400.000.06
BradleyMVC0.000.120.0025.34-0.00-0.06
GeorgetownBE0.000.12100.0064.920.000.04
LafayettePat0.000.1266.6762.890.000.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.120.0015.85-0.00-0.08
MississippiSEC0.000.1266.6760.220.000.02
IowaB100.000.1250.0067.840.000.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.10100.0061.420.000.02
Montana St.BSky0.000.100.0024.76-0.00-0.05
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.100.0048.57-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.100.0041.53-0.00-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.000.100.0034.57-0.00-0.03
South DakotaSum0.000.100.0036.84-0.00-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0933.3365.68-0.000.03
South FloridaAmer0.000.09100.0044.620.00-0.01
ArizonaP120.000.09100.0068.970.000.04
Rhode IslandA100.000.09100.0053.060.000.01
USCP120.000.0950.0026.710.00-0.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0966.6754.260.000.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0966.6766.600.000.03
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0966.6757.590.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0950.0044.000.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.09100.0048.390.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.090.0023.71-0.00-0.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.090.0031.91-0.00-0.03
XavierBE0.000.09100.0076.430.000.05
LipscombASun0.000.090.0041.45-0.00-0.02
IdahoBSky0.000.0750.0047.220.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.070.0028.50-0.00-0.03
MontanaBSky0.000.070.0049.81-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0733.3354.24-0.000.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.070.0025.67-0.00-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0750.0061.070.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.070.0053.38-0.000.00
DenverSum0.000.0750.0062.440.000.02
IPFWSum0.000.0750.0065.390.000.02
IUPUISum0.000.0733.3330.78-0.00-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0733.3349.18-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.000.06100.0048.380.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.000.060.0034.69-0.00-0.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0666.6777.370.000.03
HoustonAmer0.000.06100.0065.750.000.02
MarylandB100.000.06100.0063.680.000.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.060.0048.03-0.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.060.0033.64-0.00-0.02
RichmondA100.000.0650.0062.660.000.02
Saint LouisA100.000.06100.0066.070.000.02
SMUAmer0.000.0633.3367.72-0.000.02
VCUA100.000.06100.0074.770.000.03
Arizona St.P120.000.06100.0058.420.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.06100.0045.610.00-0.01
DrakeMVC0.000.060.0028.82-0.00-0.03
Georgia St.SB0.000.060.0058.17-0.000.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.06100.0086.950.000.05
Kent St.MAC0.000.06100.0067.860.000.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.06100.0036.560.00-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.060.0048.22-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.000.060.0033.70-0.00-0.02
PurdueB100.000.06100.0060.570.000.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0666.6751.360.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0633.3336.04-0.00-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.060.0041.63-0.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.060.0054.32-0.000.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0666.6746.160.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.000.0650.0045.330.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0625.0033.23-0.00-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0650.0041.690.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.000.06100.0054.180.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0625.0057.21-0.000.01
DePaulBE0.000.06100.0037.800.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.060.0032.99-0.00-0.02
FurmanSC0.000.0650.0025.820.00-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.060.0038.29-0.00-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0666.6738.520.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0650.0054.250.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0666.6751.090.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0650.0059.350.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.06100.0059.140.000.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0633.3338.27-0.00-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.06100.0062.680.000.02
RadfordBSth0.000.0633.3344.86-0.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.000.06100.0057.560.000.01
St. John'sBE0.000.06100.0052.280.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.060.0027.72-0.00-0.03
UTSACUSA0.000.060.0028.13-0.00-0.03
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0067.360.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.06100.0041.370.00-0.01
VMISC0.000.0650.0043.730.00-0.01
WoffordSC0.000.0666.6774.980.000.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0040.22-0.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0650.0031.730.00-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.000.060.0051.62-0.000.00
Texas St.SB0.000.06100.0052.850.000.00
BYUWCC0.000.04100.0069.310.000.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0450.0054.580.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0450.0062.510.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0466.6768.330.000.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.040.0043.21-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.040.0047.54-0.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.000.04100.0051.300.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0450.0046.900.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.04100.0064.330.000.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0450.0044.430.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.000.030.0055.45-0.000.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.030.0051.04-0.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.03100.0064.850.000.01
CornellIvy0.000.0340.0041.64-0.00-0.01
DaytonA100.000.0366.6769.310.000.01
DuquesneA100.000.030.0051.78-0.000.00
FordhamA100.000.030.0034.73-0.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0366.6766.940.000.01
La SalleA100.000.03100.0055.910.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.030.0057.16-0.000.00
MassachusettsA100.000.03100.0063.880.000.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0375.0062.010.000.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.03100.0068.990.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.03100.0077.160.000.02
PacificWCC0.000.0350.0029.930.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0333.3349.73-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0333.3333.43-0.00-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.03100.0082.150.000.02
San Jose St.MWC0.000.030.0020.69-0.00-0.02
SeattleWAC0.000.0333.3347.72-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0350.0050.390.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.0333.3363.09-0.000.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.03100.0084.100.000.02
Wright St.Horz0.000.0350.0052.540.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.030.0038.57-0.00-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.030.0062.16-0.000.01
ElonCAA0.000.0350.0040.300.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.03100.0065.630.000.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0366.6748.270.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.030.0037.20-0.00-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.030.0027.23-0.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.03100.0069.630.000.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0366.6752.470.000.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0350.0056.600.000.00
Chicago St.WAC4.170.030.0027.18-4.17-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.030.0034.26-0.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.03100.0051.030.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.030.0069.29-0.000.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0070.600.000.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.03100.0029.380.00-0.01