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Through games of Feb 8, 2016.


Oklahoma

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:3.5
Current RPI:2
Expected SOS:12
Current SOS:12
Current Record:20-3
Expected Record:25-5
Current Conf Record:8-3
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-0
Current OOC Record:12-0
Expected OOC Record:12-0
Expected OOC RPI:3
Expected OOC SOS:85



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-31.04.95%
26-41.221.65%
25-52.333.93%
24-64.826.71%
23-78.110.37%
22-811.92.09%
21-917.20.29%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Oklahoma.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17Memphis (113.6)AmerA78-84W100%0.0
11-20McNeese St. (328.3)SlndH85-56W100%0.0
11-24Incarnate Word (189.3)SlndH96-63W100%0.0
11-29Wisconsin (63.5)B10H65-48W100%0.0
12-3Central Arkansas (326.1)SlndH111-68W100%0.0
12-7Villanova (4.0)BEN55-78W100%0.0
12-12Oral Roberts (150.2)SumH96-73W100%0.0
12-19Creighton (89.7)BEH87-74W100%0.0
12-22Washington St. (183.8)P12N60-88W100%0.0
12-23Hawaii (89.4)BWA81-84W100%0.0
12-25Harvard (214.2)IvyN83-71W100%0.0
1-2Iowa St. (17.1)B12H87-83W100%0.0
1-4Kansas (5.9)B12A109-106L0%0.0
1-9Kansas St. (61.1)B12H86-76W100%0.0
1-13Oklahoma St. (148.9)B12A72-74W100%0.0
1-16West Virginia (8.7)B12H70-68W100%0.0
1-18Iowa St. (17.1)B12A82-77L0%0.0
1-23Baylor (29.7)B12A72-82W100%0.0
1-26Texas Tech (65.3)B12H91-67W100%0.0
1-30LSU (81.9)SECA75-77W100%0.0
2-2TCU (166.0)B12H95-72W100%0.0
2-6Kansas St. (61.1)B12A80-69L0%0.0
2-8Texas (27.6)B12H63-60W100%0.0
2-13Kansas (5.9)B12H0-062%3.2
2-17Texas Tech (65.3)B12A0-071%6.0
2-20West Virginia (8.7)B12A0-035%-4.3
2-24Oklahoma St. (148.9)B12H0-090%13.9
2-27Texas (27.6)B12A0-056%1.7
3-1Baylor (29.7)B12H0-078%8.5
3-5TCU (166.0)B12A0-087%12.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Oklahoma's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Oklahoma's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Oklahoma.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
OklahomaB1226.3426.3390.5385.6621.3518.78
Texas TechB122.754.2361.9055.940.650.50
KansasB122.744.2380.9578.201.702.39
Iowa St.B124.774.2076.1971.432.501.80
Kansas St.B124.784.2061.9058.951.140.75
Oklahoma St.B122.744.2047.8344.82-0.12-0.44
TCUB122.694.2047.8341.57-0.12-0.71
TexasB122.744.2069.5764.991.071.26
West VirginiaB122.744.2086.3682.791.992.76
BaylorB122.694.2076.1970.431.411.72
McNeese St.Slnd2.291.7918.7530.42-1.43-0.70
Central ArkansasSlnd2.171.7722.2228.81-1.21-0.75
Incarnate WordSlnd2.241.7356.2554.330.280.15
LSUSEC2.291.7368.1862.260.830.42
HarvardIvy2.221.7236.8439.91-0.59-0.35
HawaiiBW2.221.7288.8984.851.731.20
CreightonBE2.271.7265.2261.790.690.41
VillanovaBE2.261.7290.9189.241.851.35
Oral RobertsSum2.221.6940.9142.64-0.40-0.25
MemphisAmer2.171.6763.6462.810.590.43
Washington St.P122.171.6738.1033.12-0.52-0.56
WisconsinB102.171.6763.6457.700.590.26
Texas A&MSEC0.330.2778.2678.050.190.15
Nicholls St.Slnd0.350.2518.1821.06-0.22-0.15
WashingtonP120.190.2265.2261.090.060.05
Northwestern St.Slnd0.230.2217.6526.67-0.15-0.10
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.170.2115.0026.98-0.12-0.10
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.280.2176.1972.290.150.09
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.250.1924.0025.69-0.13-0.09
VanderbiltSEC0.190.1956.5260.010.020.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.170.1972.2275.580.080.09
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.230.1835.0034.72-0.07-0.06
Houston BaptistSlnd0.170.1850.0049.770.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.180.1845.0049.42-0.02-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.150.1745.4551.34-0.010.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.140.1777.2776.870.080.09
LamarSlnd0.120.1630.0029.25-0.05-0.07
FloridaSEC0.140.1665.2266.070.040.05
MarquetteBE0.140.1662.5056.200.040.02
New OrleansSlnd0.240.1627.7834.19-0.11-0.05
UCLAP120.210.1556.5253.240.030.01
AuburnSEC0.200.1440.9136.60-0.04-0.04
St. John'sBE0.160.1425.0023.34-0.08-0.08
TulsaAmer0.150.1465.2261.430.050.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.140.1447.8350.14-0.010.00
ProvidenceBE0.190.1475.0070.940.100.06
GeorgiaSEC0.190.1461.9056.690.050.02
MinnesotaB100.090.1426.0927.81-0.05-0.06
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.140.149.0917.12-0.12-0.09
Coppin St.MEAC0.230.1314.2920.64-0.17-0.08
GeorgetownBE0.190.1356.0052.770.020.01
UC IrvineBW0.050.1272.7371.620.020.05
Arkansas Little RockSB0.160.1290.4886.880.130.08
IndianaB100.200.1179.1774.020.120.05
Northern IowaMVC0.200.1154.1755.070.020.01
ColumbiaIvy0.150.1166.6765.220.050.03
IUPUISum0.140.1140.0039.79-0.03-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.140.1139.1337.73-0.03-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.190.1163.6462.150.050.03
South DakotaSum0.190.1141.6741.24-0.03-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.140.1127.7829.14-0.06-0.05
UtahP120.100.1169.5767.490.040.04
ColoradoP120.140.1169.5765.360.060.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.140.1145.4554.11-0.010.01
UTSACUSA0.150.1113.6413.62-0.11-0.08
StanfordP120.090.1150.0046.620.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.100.1152.1755.940.000.01
KentuckySEC0.100.1173.9171.560.050.05
Michigan St.B100.100.1183.3383.030.060.07
RichmondA100.100.1154.5554.490.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.100.1172.7372.060.040.05
ButlerBE0.090.1169.5767.170.040.04
CincinnatiAmer0.190.1170.8370.840.080.04
ConnecticutAmer0.140.1173.9172.490.070.05
DePaulBE0.090.1134.7834.54-0.03-0.03
IllinoisB100.140.1145.8344.12-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.190.1165.2259.020.060.02
North CarolinaACC0.140.1182.6178.660.090.06
Seton HallBE0.190.1173.9169.840.090.04
SMUAmer0.090.1190.9186.160.080.08
TempleAmer0.090.1163.6459.840.030.02
Virginia TechACC0.140.1154.1749.230.01-0.00
XavierBE0.050.1191.3084.340.040.07
HowardMEAC0.170.0936.3638.93-0.05-0.02
PurdueB100.110.0979.1776.510.060.05
MassachusettsA100.160.0940.9139.35-0.03-0.02
PennIvy0.100.0938.8937.62-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.110.0942.8639.19-0.02-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.100.0939.1338.33-0.02-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.100.0965.2268.620.030.03
Arizona St.P120.140.0854.1751.640.010.00
OregonP120.050.0882.6179.220.030.05
Oregon St.P120.050.0861.9056.420.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.090.0870.8369.500.040.03
South CarolinaSEC0.090.0886.3679.140.070.05
RutgersB100.150.0821.7420.35-0.08-0.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.0840.9140.65-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.090.0882.6180.590.060.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0821.7423.39-0.05-0.04
MichiganB100.050.0869.5766.240.020.03
MissouriSEC0.090.0834.7830.38-0.03-0.03
NebraskaB100.090.0854.1751.850.010.00
North DakotaBSky0.140.0847.3749.98-0.01-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.050.0847.8346.89-0.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.090.0866.6770.550.030.03
VirginiaACC0.090.0882.6178.070.060.05
CaliforniaP120.060.0665.2262.840.020.02
Texas St.SB0.110.0638.8938.50-0.03-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.110.0630.0034.56-0.05-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0635.0032.27-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0628.5728.54-0.00-0.03
UC DavisBW0.060.0640.0036.76-0.01-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.060.0645.8341.65-0.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.110.0642.8650.39-0.020.00
BrownIvy0.000.0631.5831.08-0.00-0.02
CornellIvy0.050.0642.1140.18-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.110.0631.5831.76-0.04-0.02
DenverSum0.050.0654.1751.800.000.00
IPFWSum0.090.0670.8368.570.040.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0656.5256.320.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.050.0672.2274.700.020.03
YaleIvy0.000.0673.6874.680.000.03
New MexicoMWC0.100.0660.8763.000.020.02
ArizonaP120.100.0679.1778.350.060.03
USCP120.100.0678.2673.050.060.03
High PointBSth0.050.0655.0057.480.000.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0650.0054.210.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.050.0634.7837.17-0.02-0.01
MontanaBSky0.050.0657.8962.300.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0628.5726.96-0.02-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0638.1037.70-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0559.0953.040.010.00
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0526.0929.19-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0531.8236.15-0.02-0.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0512.5012.85-0.03-0.04
BuffaloMAC0.090.0559.0958.870.020.01
ChattanoogaSC0.090.0586.9686.690.070.04
Chicago St.WAC0.090.054.357.73-0.09-0.05
ColgatePat0.050.0543.4844.80-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.090.0552.3850.420.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.059.0912.25-0.04-0.04
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0543.4842.00-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0552.0050.240.000.00
George MasonA100.050.0534.7834.14-0.01-0.02
HoustonAmer0.050.0569.5766.530.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0554.1750.940.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.050.0522.7324.96-0.02-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0542.8646.36-0.01-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.050.0550.0051.180.000.00
MarylandB100.050.0587.5083.700.040.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.090.0529.1733.74-0.04-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0533.3335.08-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.090.0558.3354.120.020.00
Rhode IslandA100.050.0556.5256.630.010.01
Saint LouisA100.090.0536.3633.47-0.03-0.02
SamfordSC0.050.0541.6742.60-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0552.1754.150.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.050.0520.0019.67-0.03-0.03
StetsonASun0.050.0523.8127.69-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.050.0565.2259.750.010.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0533.3332.31-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.050.0552.3845.690.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.050.0528.5732.70-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0350.0051.190.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0347.8348.88-0.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0357.8961.750.010.01
RiceCUSA0.060.0328.5729.68-0.03-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.060.0342.1145.70-0.01-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0360.0060.100.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0320.0022.32-0.03-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.060.0340.9143.71-0.01-0.00
NevadaMWC0.060.0355.0054.530.010.00
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0330.4326.54-0.02-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0354.1755.570.000.00
BryantNEC0.050.0325.0026.39-0.03-0.01
BYUWCC0.050.0366.6769.510.020.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0347.6245.85-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.050.0340.9145.29-0.01-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.050.0345.8346.64-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.060.0376.1968.210.030.01
VermontAE0.050.0352.0054.870.000.00
WoffordSC0.050.0343.4846.23-0.01-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.050.0378.2676.800.030.02
IdahoBSky0.050.0354.5554.950.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0345.0046.12-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0310.0013.14-0.04-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.050.0331.5837.72-0.02-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.050.0352.1751.940.000.00
AkronMAC0.050.0381.8280.030.030.02
AmericanPat0.050.0330.4331.91-0.02-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0363.6460.930.010.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0321.7423.33-0.03-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0359.0959.350.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0350.0051.900.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0345.4547.56-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.050.0352.1751.630.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0315.0018.08-0.03-0.02
Green BayHorz0.050.0354.5556.000.000.00
La SalleA100.050.0320.0020.45-0.03-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0371.4368.720.020.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0343.4842.62-0.01-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0342.8642.01-0.01-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0359.0959.640.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0350.0049.090.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.050.0365.2267.160.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.050.0333.3333.02-0.02-0.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0366.6763.440.020.01
Penn St.B100.050.0350.0046.710.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0382.6178.890.030.02
SienaMAAC0.050.0364.0064.140.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0333.3334.19-0.02-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0313.6415.79-0.03-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.050.0361.9065.300.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0331.5831.99-0.02-0.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0366.6762.580.020.01
VCUA100.050.0373.9173.910.020.01
Wake ForestACC0.050.0343.4840.57-0.01-0.01