Bucknell

Conference:	Pat
Expected RPI:	51.0
Current RPI:	51
Expected SOS:	192
Current SOS:	192
Current Record:	27-5
Expected Record:	27-5
Current Conf Record:	15-2
Expected Conf Record:	15-2
Probability of Auto Bid:	100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	7-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	17-0
Current OOC Record:	12-3
Expected OOC Record:	12-3
Expected OOC RPI:	30
Expected OOC SOS:	156

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
27-5	51.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Bucknell.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Purdue (136.0)	B10	A	65-70	W	100%
11-13	George Mason (162.0)	CAA	H	61-56	W	100%
11-16	Niagara (123.0)	MAAC	A	71-88	W	100%
11-17	New Mexico St. (55.0)	WAC	N	49-62	W	100%
11-23	Penn St. (186.0)	B10	A	60-57	L	0%
11-27	Dartmouth (294.0)	Ivy	H	62-49	W	100%
12-1	Columbia (273.0)	Ivy	A	57-65	W	100%
12-4	Kent St. (131.0)	MAC	H	76-60	W	100%
12-15	La Salle (46.0)	A10	H	74-66	W	100%
12-17	St. Francis PA (322.0)	NEC	A	49-76	W	100%
12-19	Marist (262.0)	MAAC	H	71-65	W	100%
12-22	Princeton (124.0)	Ivy	A	79-67	L	0%
12-28	Loyola MD (99.0)	MAAC	A	46-66	W	100%
1-2	Cornell (248.0)	Ivy	A	56-72	W	100%
1-5	Missouri (36.0)	SEC	A	66-64	L	0%
1-12	Army (205.0)	Pat	H	76-55	W	100%
1-16	Colgate (256.0)	Pat	A	59-73	W	100%
1-19	Lafayette (153.0)	Pat	H	66-51	W	100%
1-23	Lehigh (107.0)	Pat	H	62-65	L	0%
1-26	Holy Cross (251.0)	Pat	A	58-65	W	100%
1-30	American (278.0)	Pat	A	55-56	W	100%
2-2	Navy (308.0)	Pat	H	69-54	W	100%
2-9	Army (205.0)	Pat	A	58-60	W	100%
2-13	Colgate (256.0)	Pat	H	69-61	W	100%
2-16	Lafayette (153.0)	Pat	A	63-62	L	0%
2-18	Lehigh (107.0)	Pat	A	55-61	W	100%
2-24	Holy Cross (251.0)	Pat	H	74-57	W	100%
2-27	American (278.0)	Pat	H	66-47	W	100%
3-2	Navy (308.0)	Pat	A	46-62	W	100%
3-6	Navy (308.0)	Pat	H	58-42	W	100%
3-9	Army (205.0)	Pat	H	78-70	W	100%
3-13	Lafayette (153.0)	Pat	H	64-56	W	100%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Bucknell's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Bucknell's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Bucknell.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Bucknell	Pat	26.48	26.48	87.33	87.33	19.77	19.77
Lafayette	Pat	5.58	5.58	56.67	56.67	0.74	0.74
Army	Pat	5.56	5.56	55.56	55.56	0.62	0.62
Navy	Pat	5.40	5.40	25.93	25.93	-2.60	-2.60
Colgate	Pat	4.09	4.09	36.67	36.67	-1.09	-1.09
American	Pat	4.05	4.05	35.71	35.71	-1.16	-1.16
Lehigh	Pat	4.03	4.03	70.37	70.37	1.64	1.64
Holy Cross	Pat	4.02	4.02	42.86	42.86	-0.57	-0.57
Columbia	Ivy	1.99	1.99	40.00	40.00	-0.40	-0.40
Dartmouth	Ivy	1.91	1.91	30.77	30.77	-0.74	-0.74
St. Francis PA	NEC	1.89	1.89	17.86	17.86	-1.21	-1.21
Cornell	Ivy	1.87	1.87	41.38	41.38	-0.32	-0.32
Princeton	Ivy	1.83	1.83	57.69	57.69	0.28	0.28
Marist	MAAC	1.82	1.82	33.33	33.33	-0.61	-0.61
Penn St.	B10	1.74	1.74	30.00	30.00	-0.70	-0.70
Niagara	MAAC	1.71	1.71	61.29	61.29	0.39	0.39
Loyola MD	MAAC	1.66	1.66	67.74	67.74	0.59	0.59
Kent St.	MAC	1.62	1.62	61.29	61.29	0.37	0.37
Purdue	B10	1.61	1.61	48.39	48.39	-0.05	-0.05
La Salle	A10	1.59	1.59	72.41	72.41	0.71	0.71
New Mexico St.	WAC	1.59	1.59	71.88	71.88	0.69	0.69
George Mason	CAA	1.56	1.56	58.06	58.06	0.25	0.25
Missouri	SEC	1.56	1.56	68.75	68.75	0.59	0.59
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.40	0.40	29.03	29.03	-0.17	-0.17
Yale	Ivy	0.36	0.36	41.38	41.38	-0.06	-0.06
Siena	MAAC	0.30	0.30	25.00	25.00	-0.15	-0.15
Bryant	NEC	0.29	0.29	63.33	63.33	0.08	0.08
Harvard	Ivy	0.28	0.28	66.67	66.67	0.09	0.09
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.26	0.26	31.03	31.03	-0.10	-0.10
Binghamton	AE	0.26	0.26	6.90	6.90	-0.22	-0.22
Brown	Ivy	0.25	0.25	44.44	44.44	-0.03	-0.03
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.23	0.23	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.22	0.22	40.00	40.00	-0.04	-0.04
Rider	MAAC	0.20	0.20	56.25	56.25	0.03	0.03
Monmouth	NEC	0.20	0.20	32.26	32.26	-0.07	-0.07
Manhattan	MAAC	0.20	0.20	43.75	43.75	-0.03	-0.03
Fairfield	MAAC	0.20	0.20	55.88	55.88	0.02	0.02
Long Island	NEC	0.20	0.20	60.61	60.61	0.04	0.04
Iona	MAAC	0.20	0.20	60.61	60.61	0.04	0.04
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.20	0.20	48.00	48.00	-0.01	-0.01
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.19	0.19	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Maine	AE	0.18	0.18	34.48	34.48	-0.06	-0.06
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.18	0.18	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.18	0.18	22.58	22.58	-0.10	-0.10
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.17	0.17	30.00	30.00	-0.07	-0.07
Minnesota	B10	0.17	0.17	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
New Hampshire	AE	0.16	0.16	28.57	28.57	-0.07	-0.07
Albany	AE	0.15	0.15	70.59	70.59	0.06	0.06
Canisius	MAAC	0.15	0.15	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Illinois	B10	0.15	0.15	63.64	63.64	0.04	0.04
Delaware	CAA	0.15	0.15	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Elon	SC	0.14	0.14	63.33	63.33	0.04	0.04
San Francisco	WCC	0.13	0.13	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.13	0.13	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Hartford	AE	0.13	0.13	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Akron	MAC	0.13	0.13	80.65	80.65	0.08	0.08
Buffalo	MAC	0.13	0.13	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Drexel	CAA	0.13	0.13	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Providence	BE	0.13	0.13	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.13	0.13	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.12	0.12	78.12	78.12	0.07	0.07
Nebraska	B10	0.12	0.12	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.11	0.11	22.58	22.58	-0.06	-0.06
Robert Morris	NEC	0.11	0.11	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Boston College	ACC	0.11	0.11	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.10	0.10	76.47	76.47	0.05	0.05
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.10	0.10	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.10	0.10	23.33	23.33	-0.05	-0.05
Old Dominion	CAA	0.10	0.10	16.67	16.67	-0.07	-0.07
Wisconsin	B10	0.10	0.10	67.65	67.65	0.04	0.04
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.10	0.10	31.25	31.25	-0.04	-0.04
Indiana	B10	0.10	0.10	81.82	81.82	0.06	0.06
Iowa	B10	0.10	0.10	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Northwestern	B10	0.10	0.10	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland	ACC	0.10	0.10	64.71	64.71	0.03	0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Stanford	P12	0.09	0.09	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.08	0.08	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.08	0.08	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.08	0.08	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Texas Christian	B12	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Tulane	CUSA	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.08	0.08	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Syracuse	BE	0.08	0.08	74.29	74.29	0.04	0.04
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.08	0.08	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Notre Dame	BE	0.08	0.08	73.53	73.53	0.04	0.04
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.07	0.07	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.07	0.07	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Xavier	A10	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.07	0.07	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	22.58	22.58	-0.04	-0.04
Hofstra	CAA	0.07	0.07	19.35	19.35	-0.04	-0.04
Towson	CAA	0.07	0.07	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.07	0.07	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.07	0.07	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.07	0.07	85.29	85.29	0.05	0.05
Idaho	WAC	0.07	0.07	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.07	0.07	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
Morehead St.	OVC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Texas St.	WAC	0.07	0.07	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Wagner	NEC	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
North Texas	SB	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Vermont	AE	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Butler	A10	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.05	7.14	7.14	-0.04	-0.04
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Stony Brook	AE	0.05	0.05	76.67	76.67	0.03	0.03
Boston University	AE	0.05	0.05	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Temple	A10	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
West Virginia	B12	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.05	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.02	0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Denver	WAC	0.05	0.05	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
San Jose St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Seattle	WAC	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Utah St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Rutgers	BE	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Charlotte	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Presbyterian	BSth	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
St. Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
College of Charleston	SC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.02	0.02	60.00	60.00	0.00	0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.02	0.02	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.02	0.02	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Lamar	Slnd	0.02	0.02	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Memphis	CUSA	0.02	0.02	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Mercer	ASun	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.02	0.02	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.02	0.02	70.37	70.37	0.01	0.01
South Florida	BE	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.02	0.02	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Valparaiso	Horz	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Washington	P12	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.02	0.02	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.02	0.02	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.02	0.02	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Louisville	BE	0.02	0.02	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.02	0.02	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.02	0.02	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.02	0.02	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.02	0.02	28.00	28.00	-0.01	-0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.02	0.02	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.02	0.02	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
UCLA	P12	0.02	0.02	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01