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Through games of Feb 11, 2016.


Bucknell

Conference:Pat
Expected RPI:181.8
Current RPI:193
Expected SOS:236
Current SOS:238
Current Record:12-11
Expected Record:15-13
Current Conf Record:10-3
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-4
Current OOC Record:2-8
Expected OOC Record:2-8
Expected OOC RPI:263
Expected OOC SOS:173



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-11159.612.08%
16-12172.834.89%
15-13186.834.71%
14-14201.415.35%
13-15216.52.77%
12-16234.40.19%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Bucknell.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Wake Forest (132.6)ACCH82-90L0%0.0
11-18Robert Morris (306.3)NECA76-81W100%0.0
11-21Manhattan (226.2)MAACA67-80W100%0.0
11-24Siena (95.6)MAACH81-83L0%0.0
11-28Penn St. (131.5)B10A62-58L0%0.0
12-2Columbia (124.9)IvyH61-72L0%0.0
12-5North Carolina St. (119.1)ACCA99-86L0%0.0
12-8Mount St. Mary's (229.4)NECA81-73L0%0.0
12-22Princeton (51.7)IvyA89-77L0%0.0
12-27Fairfield (173.8)MAACH91-101L0%0.0
12-30Navy (180.0)PatH88-58W100%0.0
1-2Army (217.9)PatA76-84W100%0.0
1-6American (264.6)PatH72-54W100%0.0
1-9Holy Cross (285.9)PatH98-71W100%0.0
1-11Lehigh (196.2)PatA76-82W100%0.0
1-16Colgate (228.0)PatH73-84L0%0.0
1-20Loyola MD (238.2)PatA58-67W100%0.0
1-23Boston University (186.5)PatA71-74W100%0.0
1-25Lafayette (323.1)PatH79-67W100%0.0
1-30Army (217.9)PatH94-66W100%0.0
2-3American (264.6)PatA69-55L0%0.0
2-6Holy Cross (285.9)PatA52-77W100%0.0
2-10Lehigh (196.2)PatH65-80L0%0.0
2-13Colgate (228.0)PatA0-057%2.0
2-17Loyola MD (238.2)PatH0-084%10.6
2-21Boston University (186.5)PatH0-073%6.6
2-24Lafayette (323.1)PatA0-080%9.1
2-27Navy (180.0)PatA0-045%-1.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Bucknell's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Bucknell's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Bucknell.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BucknellPat26.4326.4152.8956.151.533.25
Loyola MDPat3.124.6434.7837.18-0.95-1.19
LehighPat5.164.6438.1042.28-1.23-0.72
LafayettePat3.054.5921.7422.54-1.72-2.52
AmericanPat5.084.5927.2729.80-2.31-1.85
Boston UniversityPat3.004.5658.3359.570.500.87
NavyPat2.954.5666.6767.100.981.56
ArmyPat4.994.5659.0958.310.910.76
Holy CrossPat4.984.5645.4542.52-0.45-0.68
ColgatePat3.034.5540.9142.87-0.55-0.65
Mount St. Mary'sNEC2.492.0340.0044.33-0.50-0.23
ColumbiaIvy2.402.0165.0063.990.720.56
FairfieldMAAC2.412.0052.1752.510.100.10
SienaMAAC2.361.9764.0063.810.660.54
Robert MorrisNEC2.401.9428.0029.56-1.06-0.79
ManhattanMAAC2.401.9347.6244.83-0.11-0.20
PrincetonIvy2.221.9170.5973.730.910.91
North Carolina St.ACC2.221.8547.8347.25-0.10-0.10
Wake ForestACC2.221.8439.1337.82-0.48-0.45
Penn St.B102.171.7947.8345.00-0.09-0.18
CanisiusMAAC0.410.3342.3144.53-0.06-0.04
MaristMAAC0.360.3021.7424.25-0.20-0.16
QuinnipiacMAAC0.270.3034.7834.97-0.08-0.09
CornellIvy0.240.2842.1140.24-0.04-0.06
PennIvy0.190.2838.8937.69-0.04-0.07
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.280.2752.1753.720.010.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.310.2733.3336.31-0.10-0.07
Stony BrookAE0.340.2582.6183.010.220.17
HarvardIvy0.250.2535.0038.57-0.07-0.06
New HampshireAE0.270.2559.0956.870.050.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.230.2440.9143.32-0.04-0.03
UMBCAE0.220.2423.0825.87-0.12-0.12
MonmouthMAAC0.310.2480.0081.160.190.15
St. Francis PANEC0.310.2452.1751.830.010.01
YaleIvy0.250.2273.6874.620.120.11
RiderMAAC0.240.2140.0042.04-0.05-0.03
AlbanyAE0.220.2173.0873.780.100.10
BinghamtonAE0.220.2124.0026.44-0.12-0.10
St. Francis NYNEC0.180.2140.0043.49-0.04-0.03
WagnerNEC0.260.2160.8762.520.060.05
BryantNEC0.260.2124.0024.92-0.13-0.10
BrownIvy0.200.1931.5831.01-0.07-0.07
SyracuseACC0.190.1968.0064.090.070.05
IonaMAAC0.140.1860.8760.670.030.04
NiagaraMAAC0.230.1824.0024.61-0.12-0.09
NorthwesternB100.190.1864.0062.090.050.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.170.1850.0051.280.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.160.1631.5831.68-0.06-0.06
George WashingtonA100.180.1575.0071.960.090.07
NJITASun0.140.1556.0055.640.020.02
DukeACC0.180.1575.0071.840.090.06
KansasB120.140.1282.6179.200.090.07
MaineAE0.180.1232.0031.16-0.07-0.05
Rhode IslandA100.180.1258.3357.250.030.02
Georgia TechACC0.140.1254.1752.000.010.00
VirginiaACC0.140.1283.3378.460.090.07
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.190.1229.1733.75-0.08-0.04
LSUSEC0.180.1262.5059.080.050.02
USC UpstateASun0.090.1221.7422.42-0.05-0.07
UNC GreensboroSC0.130.1226.0928.41-0.06-0.05
North CarolinaACC0.140.1283.3378.380.090.07
Central ConnecticutNEC0.130.1212.5013.27-0.09-0.08
FordhamA100.100.1052.3850.690.000.00
George MasonA100.100.1033.3333.63-0.03-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.150.0959.0961.280.030.02
PurdueB100.140.0980.0077.910.080.05
Miami FLACC0.150.0982.6177.580.100.05
MarylandB100.150.0987.5083.660.110.06
Air ForceMWC0.130.0943.4837.80-0.02-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.090.0972.7370.410.040.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.130.0930.4332.26-0.05-0.03
FurmanSC0.090.0956.0054.430.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.090.0948.0048.60-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.050.0970.8367.930.020.03
South FloridaAmer0.090.0920.0019.73-0.05-0.05
Virginia TechACC0.090.0952.0048.920.00-0.00
VMISC0.090.0919.0519.67-0.05-0.05
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0929.1726.69-0.02-0.04
Florida St.ACC0.140.0966.6763.300.050.02
MichiganB100.140.0970.8366.750.060.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.110.0683.3381.280.070.04
TCUB120.050.0645.8339.36-0.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0624.0025.68-0.05-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.090.0643.4845.21-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.090.0624.0024.55-0.05-0.03
La SalleA100.050.0619.0520.30-0.03-0.04
TennesseeSEC0.090.0650.0048.130.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0668.1865.170.020.02
TowsonCAA0.050.0662.5057.730.010.01
USCP120.050.0678.2673.130.030.03
VCUA100.090.0670.8371.050.040.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.040.0660.8758.900.010.01
FloridaSEC0.040.0666.6766.320.010.02
IPFWSum0.040.0670.8368.660.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.040.0647.8348.57-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.040.0675.0072.610.020.03
MassachusettsA100.040.0643.4842.40-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.040.0679.1777.200.030.03
UMass LowellAE0.040.0637.5037.69-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0658.3358.400.010.01
IndianaB100.090.0680.0075.690.050.03
LouisvilleACC0.090.0679.1775.990.050.03
PittsburghACC0.050.0672.7367.600.020.02
RutgersB100.050.0621.7420.34-0.03-0.03
DuquesneA100.090.0660.8756.270.020.01
IowaB100.050.0679.1778.880.030.03
Michigan St.B100.050.0680.0081.560.030.04
NebraskaB100.000.0652.0050.760.000.00
Ohio St.B100.090.0660.0055.560.020.01
RadfordBSth0.090.0652.1754.100.000.00
WisconsinB100.090.0662.5057.000.020.01
LibertyBSth0.060.0334.7836.53-0.02-0.01
LipscombASun0.060.0328.0030.49-0.03-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0343.4850.64-0.010.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0350.0049.320.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.050.0358.3359.310.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0319.0525.90-0.03-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0381.8281.780.030.02
DelawareCAA0.050.0325.0024.93-0.03-0.02
HowardMEAC0.050.0336.3638.97-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0358.3356.290.010.00
LongwoodBSth0.050.0321.7424.60-0.03-0.02
WoffordSC0.050.0345.8348.12-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.050.0350.0052.940.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0357.1457.670.010.00
RichmondA100.050.0356.5255.820.010.00
UCLAP120.050.0356.5253.400.010.00
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0358.3359.970.010.01
XavierBE0.050.0387.5081.850.030.02
Arizona St.P120.050.0354.1751.700.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.040.0372.0071.570.020.01
ColoradoP120.050.0370.8365.580.020.01
DePaulBE0.050.0333.3334.02-0.02-0.01
DrexelCAA0.050.0313.0416.42-0.03-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0340.0043.39-0.01-0.00
ElonCAA0.040.0350.0050.070.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.040.0359.0955.160.010.00
GonzagaWCC0.040.0379.1777.510.020.02
High PointBSth0.050.0357.1459.870.010.01
HofstraCAA0.040.0366.6766.770.010.01
IllinoisB100.000.0345.8344.07-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.050.0338.4638.50-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.040.0372.0071.320.020.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0365.2260.600.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0345.4549.05-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.050.0325.0027.26-0.02-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.040.0320.0022.25-0.03-0.02
MissouriSEC0.050.0333.3330.28-0.02-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.040.0365.2268.600.010.01
OaklandHorz0.040.0365.3865.510.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0336.3636.29-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.040.0365.2264.340.010.01
VermontAE0.040.0352.0054.860.000.00
WashingtonP120.040.0362.5060.140.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.050.0368.1867.110.020.01
WinthropBSth0.050.0366.6763.780.020.01