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Through games of Nov 21, 2014.


Bucknell

Conference:Pat
Expected RPI:168.0
Current RPI:189
Expected SOS:145
Current SOS:152
Current Record:1-2
Expected Record:14-15
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-3
Current OOC Record:1-2
Expected OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC RPI:158
Expected OOC SOS:100



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-727.50.02%
21-846.30.10%
20-958.00.41%
19-1071.81.41%
18-1183.52.91%
17-12102.56.32%
16-13119.710.62%
15-14138.613.47%
14-15158.916.29%
13-16178.815.88%
12-17199.013.25%
11-18219.29.12%
10-19240.45.80%
9-20258.32.74%
8-21278.41.16%
7-22294.00.37%
6-23307.30.11%
5-24326.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Bucknell.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Marist (218.2)MAACH75-72W100%0.0
11-17Michigan (34.7)B10A77-53L0%0.0
11-20Villanova (53.5)BEA72-65L0%0.0
11-22Mount St. Mary's (288.8)NECH0-082%11.2
11-24Toledo (74.4)MACA0-022%-9.3
11-28Penn St. (125.3)B10H0-046%-1.2
12-1Fairfield (241.7)MAACA0-056%1.9
12-6Columbia (133.3)IvyA0-029%-6.8
12-8Albany (149.1)AEH0-056%1.7
12-22Wake Forest (136.6)ACCA0-026%-7.8
12-28Siena (134.9)MAACA0-030%-6.2
12-31American (76.6)PatH0-043%-2.2
1-3Colgate (222.1)PatA0-049%-0.5
1-7Lafayette (123.1)PatH0-052%0.5
1-10Holy Cross (115.9)PatA0-030%-6.2
1-14Navy (270.8)PatH0-079%9.8
1-17Army (157.6)PatH0-061%3.4
1-21Loyola MD (237.3)PatA0-052%0.5
1-24Boston University (121.9)PatA0-030%-6.4
1-28Lehigh (231.8)PatH0-071%6.6
1-31Colgate (222.1)PatH0-071%6.7
2-4Lafayette (123.1)PatA0-029%-6.7
2-8Holy Cross (115.9)PatH0-053%1.0
2-11Navy (270.8)PatA0-058%2.6
2-15Army (157.6)PatA0-037%-3.8
2-18Loyola MD (237.3)PatH0-074%7.6
2-22Boston University (121.9)PatH0-053%0.8
2-25Lehigh (231.8)PatA0-048%-0.6
2-28American (76.6)PatA0-022%-9.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Bucknell's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Bucknell's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Bucknell.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BucknellPat40.2826.4233.3348.72-13.43-0.68
Loyola MDPat0.004.5466.6738.600.00-1.04
AmericanPat0.004.4966.6764.030.001.26
ColgatePat0.004.490.0036.17-0.00-1.24
LehighPat2.784.480.0035.32-2.78-1.31
ArmyPat0.004.45100.0058.350.000.74
Holy CrossPat0.004.44100.0060.820.000.96
Boston UniversityPat0.004.4233.3357.80-0.000.69
LafayettePat0.004.4266.6763.130.001.16
NavyPat0.004.420.0032.30-0.00-1.56
ColumbiaIvy0.001.9650.0060.570.000.41
FairfieldMAAC0.001.9333.3334.15-0.00-0.61
SienaMAAC0.001.9333.3358.48-0.000.33
AlbanyAE0.001.9050.0064.660.000.56
MaristMAAC16.671.900.0045.05-16.67-0.19
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.001.870.0033.41-0.00-0.62
VillanovaBE16.671.79100.0066.2416.670.58
Penn St.B100.001.7575.0044.910.00-0.18
Wake ForestACC0.001.7550.0040.400.00-0.34
MichiganB1016.671.75100.0065.6416.670.55
ToledoMAC0.001.7233.3363.33-0.000.46
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.3350.0055.680.000.04
CanisiusMAAC0.000.30100.0057.010.000.04
BinghamtonAE0.000.270.0039.15-0.00-0.06
St. Francis PANEC0.000.270.0051.62-0.000.01
SyracuseACC0.000.2775.0070.210.000.11
PennIvy0.000.250.0025.28-0.00-0.12
NJITind0.000.2433.3328.81-0.00-0.10
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.2450.0036.850.00-0.06
Stony BrookAE0.000.2433.3363.09-0.000.06
RiderMAAC0.000.2466.6751.360.000.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.240.0026.04-0.00-0.12
CornellIvy0.000.2440.0041.64-0.00-0.04
NiagaraMAAC0.000.2150.0028.860.00-0.09
IonaMAAC0.000.2166.6766.940.000.07
HarvardIvy0.000.1950.0066.890.000.06
BrownIvy0.000.1933.3338.39-0.00-0.04
UMBCAE0.000.180.0035.60-0.00-0.05
ManhattanMAAC0.000.180.0057.16-0.000.03
MonmouthMAAC0.000.1850.0059.350.000.03
New HampshireAE0.000.180.0041.70-0.00-0.03
IllinoisB100.000.18100.0065.630.000.06
Ohio St.B100.000.18100.0073.590.000.08
DukeACC0.000.17100.0086.380.000.13
YaleIvy0.000.1650.0057.440.000.02
VMISC0.000.1550.0043.730.00-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.1533.3349.73-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.1550.0036.810.00-0.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.150.0054.88-0.000.01
WagnerNEC0.000.150.0043.90-0.00-0.02
Michigan St.B100.000.1566.6771.300.000.06
NortheasternCAA0.000.15100.0069.720.000.06
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1533.3338.44-0.00-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.000.15100.0062.680.000.04
La SalleA100.000.14100.0055.910.000.02
HartfordAE0.000.1266.6738.630.00-0.03
BryantNEC0.000.1250.0054.540.000.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.120.0043.82-0.00-0.01
MaineAE0.000.120.0016.80-0.00-0.08
UMass LowellAE0.000.1233.3331.34-0.00-0.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.780.1225.0029.11-1.39-0.05
Notre DameACC0.000.12100.0069.430.000.05
Arizona St.P120.000.12100.0058.420.000.02
DePaulBE0.000.12100.0037.800.00-0.03
RutgersB100.000.1250.0036.270.00-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1233.3333.43-0.00-0.04
ButlerBE0.000.12100.0054.180.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.1250.0063.730.000.03
KentuckySEC0.000.09100.0086.080.000.07
DartmouthIvy0.000.090.0033.39-0.00-0.03
PittsburghACC0.000.0966.6751.250.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.090.0048.22-0.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.000.090.0033.61-0.00-0.03
NorthwesternB100.000.09100.0043.710.00-0.01
VermontAE0.000.0950.0066.020.000.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.09100.0050.900.000.00
MarylandB100.000.09100.0063.680.000.02
WisconsinB100.000.09100.0081.110.000.05
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.090.0035.33-0.00-0.03
Seton HallBE0.000.09100.0057.560.000.01
AkronMAC0.000.0966.6763.580.000.02
TempleAmer0.000.0966.6760.730.000.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.0650.0045.330.00-0.01
DaytonA100.000.0666.6769.310.000.02
KansasB120.000.0650.0060.200.000.01
The CitadelSC0.000.060.0027.74-0.00-0.03
TowsonCAA0.000.0666.6745.850.00-0.01
USCP120.000.0650.0026.710.00-0.03
West VirginiaB120.000.06100.0068.580.000.02
ArizonaP120.000.06100.0068.970.000.02
IndianaB100.000.06100.0063.850.000.02
IowaB100.000.0650.0067.840.000.02
NebraskaB100.000.06100.0051.030.000.00
OregonP120.000.06100.0070.690.000.02
PurdueB100.000.06100.0060.570.000.01
Texas TechB120.000.0650.0043.560.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0650.0041.690.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.060.0035.31-0.00-0.02
FordhamA100.000.060.0034.73-0.00-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.060.0038.12-0.00-0.01
CampbellBSth0.000.060.0030.14-0.00-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0045.780.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0055.810.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.06100.0064.920.000.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.0633.3359.35-0.000.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0666.6747.240.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.06100.0067.860.000.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0666.6768.330.000.02
MarquetteBE0.000.0650.0054.250.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.060.0054.04-0.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.06100.0045.530.00-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.060.0033.43-0.00-0.02
St. John'sBE0.000.06100.0052.280.000.00
VCUA100.000.06100.0074.770.000.03
Western MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0055.380.000.01
XavierBE0.000.06100.0076.430.000.03
Virginia TechACC0.000.06100.0041.370.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.06100.0052.690.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.06100.0059.140.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.06100.0076.260.000.03
ConnecticutAmer0.000.03100.0075.400.000.02
HofstraCAA0.000.0366.6763.800.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0031.68-0.00-0.01
DetroitHorz4.170.030.0055.45-4.170.00
ElonCAA0.000.0350.0040.300.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.03100.0071.730.000.01
SMUAmer0.000.0333.3367.72-0.000.01
MassachusettsA100.000.03100.0063.880.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.03100.0077.160.000.02
RadfordBSth0.000.0333.3344.86-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0350.0050.390.000.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0366.6746.160.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.030.0044.57-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.000.0350.0072.160.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.03100.0061.540.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0366.6759.850.000.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.03100.0070.040.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0027.18-0.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0350.0054.170.000.00
DrexelCAA0.000.030.0034.27-0.00-0.01
DuquesneA100.000.030.0051.78-0.000.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0366.6777.370.000.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0366.6751.090.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0045.64-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0350.0033.640.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.030.0037.45-0.00-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0333.3354.24-0.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0333.3338.27-0.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.030.0033.70-0.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0350.0054.660.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0061.070.000.01
South DakotaSum0.000.030.0036.84-0.00-0.01
WoffordSC0.000.0366.6774.980.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.03100.0074.210.000.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0333.3344.93-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0333.3343.51-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0366.6766.600.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0350.0056.300.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0079.370.000.02
Miami FLACC0.000.03100.0073.200.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.03100.0066.050.000.01
RichmondA100.000.0350.0062.660.000.01
SamfordSC0.000.0333.3332.57-0.00-0.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0350.0033.930.00-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0350.0049.490.00-0.00