live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Jan 20, 2017.


Bucknell

Conference:Pat
Expected RPI:94.9
Current RPI:106
Expected SOS:221
Current SOS:212
Current Record:14-6
Expected Record:22-9
Current Conf Record:6-1
Expected Conf Record:14-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:15-1
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:105
Expected OOC SOS:134



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-662.53.06%
24-772.214.39%
23-884.328.11%
22-998.128.51%
21-10112.917.28%
20-11127.96.56%
19-12144.21.83%
18-13160.20.24%
17-14182.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Bucknell.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Manhattan (240.1)MAACH76-64W100%0.0
11-13Wake Forest (42.8)ACCA94-74L0%0.0
11-16Robert Morris (266.4)NECH75-62W100%0.0
11-19Butler (8.5)BEA86-60L0%0.0
11-21Vanderbilt (92.6)SECA72-75W100%0.0
11-24Norfolk St. (311.5)MEACN84-58W100%0.0
11-25Northern Colorado (271.7)BSkyN63-75W100%0.0
11-30Richmond (115.2)A10H73-68W100%0.0
12-3La Salle (65.3)A10A83-73L0%0.0
12-6Fairfield (190.8)MAACA64-75W100%0.0
12-17Siena (166.1)MAACN71-68L0%0.0
12-19Mount St. Mary's (178.8)NECH81-65W100%0.0
12-22Princeton (86.3)IvyH70-72L0%0.0
12-30Navy (220.9)PatA55-59W100%0.0
1-2Army (241.5)PatH84-76W100%0.0
1-5American (291.9)PatA60-69W100%0.0
1-8Holy Cross (174.6)PatA49-68W100%0.0
1-11Lehigh (100.0)PatH71-82L0%0.0
1-14Colgate (294.6)PatA69-83W100%0.0
1-18Loyola MD (195.3)PatH76-63W100%0.0
1-21Boston University (177.8)PatH0-074%7.0
1-25Lafayette (317.9)PatA0-091%14.6
1-28Army (241.5)PatA0-064%3.9
2-1American (291.9)PatH0-090%14.3
2-6Holy Cross (174.6)PatH0-081%9.9
2-8Lehigh (100.0)PatA0-037%-3.7
2-13Colgate (294.6)PatH0-089%13.7
2-15Loyola MD (195.3)PatA0-071%6.1
2-19Boston University (177.8)PatA0-053%0.8
2-22Lafayette (317.9)PatH0-097%20.8
2-25Navy (220.9)PatH0-083%10.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Bucknell's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Bucknell's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Bucknell.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BucknellPat26.4026.3671.4373.0811.3112.16
LehighPat3.134.2250.0062.040.001.02
Loyola MDPat2.924.1750.0048.650.00-0.11
ArmyPat2.924.1441.1844.46-0.51-0.46
LafayettePat0.494.1429.4125.06-0.20-2.07
Holy CrossPat2.784.1252.6354.580.150.38
ColgatePat2.774.1222.2228.84-1.54-1.74
AmericanPat2.784.1229.4132.64-1.15-1.43
Boston UniversityPat0.414.1250.0054.240.000.35
NavyPat2.784.1247.0649.41-0.16-0.05
FairfieldMAAC2.831.8350.0051.680.000.06
Mount St. Mary'sNEC2.651.7842.1151.72-0.420.06
Robert MorrisNEC2.641.7536.8441.08-0.70-0.31
PrincetonIvy2.571.7357.1464.760.370.51
ManhattanMAAC2.571.7236.8437.52-0.68-0.43
SienaMAAC2.651.7236.8443.35-0.70-0.23
ButlerBE2.731.7083.3377.591.820.94
La SalleA102.571.7066.6762.780.860.43
RichmondA102.631.6964.7159.860.770.33
VanderbiltSEC2.641.6747.0644.02-0.16-0.20
Norfolk St.MEAC2.641.6720.0037.10-1.58-0.43
Northern ColoradoBSky2.571.6433.3339.81-0.86-0.33
Wake ForestACC2.571.6458.8254.050.450.13
Sacred HeartNEC0.420.3040.0040.81-0.08-0.06
MonmouthMAAC0.280.3075.0074.450.140.15
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.260.2755.5656.750.030.04
PennIvy0.290.2642.8647.98-0.04-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.190.2415.7920.51-0.13-0.14
ColumbiaIvy0.200.2346.1546.15-0.02-0.02
VillanovaBE0.280.2294.7489.270.250.17
LIU BrooklynNEC0.200.2263.1660.780.050.05
St. Francis PANEC0.270.2235.2944.13-0.08-0.03
CanisiusMAAC0.200.2260.0061.270.040.05
MaristMAAC0.130.2131.5829.24-0.05-0.09
QuinnipiacMAAC0.190.2142.1141.75-0.03-0.03
CornellIvy0.130.2020.0024.53-0.08-0.10
DuquesneA100.280.1947.3741.47-0.01-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.200.1926.3227.72-0.10-0.08
SyracuseACC0.130.1957.8952.520.020.01
WagnerNEC0.270.1937.5047.61-0.07-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.150.1747.0646.29-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.210.1735.2937.32-0.06-0.04
New HampshireAE0.130.1656.2558.170.020.03
BryantNEC0.130.1621.0533.56-0.08-0.05
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.190.1641.1846.85-0.03-0.01
IonaMAAC0.210.1660.0063.140.040.04
RiderMAAC0.260.1657.8952.960.040.01
HamptonMEAC0.220.1426.6740.16-0.10-0.03
Notre DameACC0.140.1484.2176.540.100.07
XavierBE0.210.1472.2267.680.090.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.1468.4252.190.030.01
St. BonaventureA100.200.1466.6762.870.070.04
FordhamA100.130.1438.8935.26-0.03-0.04
MassachusettsA100.060.1363.1660.390.020.03
Rhode IslandA100.140.1364.7167.120.040.05
AlbanyAE0.190.1352.6358.980.010.02
YaleIvy0.160.1260.0065.720.030.04
Stony BrookAE0.150.1255.5654.430.020.01
HarvardIvy0.060.1158.3361.560.010.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.150.1170.5958.250.060.02
Arkansas St.SB0.140.1164.7165.930.040.04
UMass LowellAE0.070.1140.0040.47-0.01-0.02
VCUA100.080.1173.6870.630.040.05
CreightonBE0.140.1194.4484.720.120.08
NJITASun0.070.1138.8942.49-0.01-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.1163.1659.530.000.02
UMBCAE0.200.1162.5058.830.050.02
Boston CollegeACC0.210.1147.3734.50-0.01-0.03
MaineAE0.060.1120.0020.95-0.04-0.06
Texas A&MSEC0.070.1152.9451.020.000.00
George MasonA100.060.1164.7156.510.020.01
George WashingtonA100.210.1152.6348.070.01-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.130.1011.1116.28-0.10-0.07
DartmouthIvy0.070.0921.4323.06-0.04-0.05
HowardMEAC0.070.0912.5028.49-0.05-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0912.5033.82-0.05-0.03
DrexelCAA0.080.0933.3333.71-0.03-0.03
TowsonCAA0.140.0852.6354.610.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.140.0821.0528.89-0.08-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.140.0873.6869.690.070.03
MarylandB100.140.0888.8973.830.110.04
Saint LouisA100.080.0827.7824.32-0.03-0.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.140.0870.5964.080.060.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0814.2929.27-0.04-0.03
High PointBSth0.140.0837.5042.27-0.03-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.130.0836.8433.59-0.03-0.03
DavidsonA100.150.0852.9453.560.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.140.0852.6348.210.01-0.00
DaytonA100.220.0876.4776.940.110.04
DePaulBE0.060.0842.1130.39-0.01-0.03
MarquetteBE0.140.0866.6761.530.050.02
ArkansasSEC0.060.0877.7870.290.030.03
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0882.3574.990.040.04
BrownIvy0.080.0647.0642.91-0.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0612.5024.37-0.00-0.03
Idaho St.BSky0.080.0612.5022.04-0.06-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.000.0650.0057.040.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0616.6720.43-0.05-0.04
Portland St.BSky0.080.0657.1457.210.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.080.0620.0024.21-0.05-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0625.0031.85-0.04-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.080.0611.7618.03-0.06-0.04
Weber St.BSky0.000.0650.0061.630.000.01
ArizonaP120.140.0689.4784.510.110.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0622.2225.60-0.03-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.140.0631.5832.58-0.05-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.140.0637.5044.55-0.04-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.150.0647.3745.83-0.01-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.070.0641.1837.57-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.070.0683.3376.940.050.03
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0635.2941.77-0.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.070.0652.9458.360.000.01
HartfordAE0.070.0630.0028.54-0.03-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0664.7162.600.020.01
Ohio St.B100.070.0663.1658.020.020.01
OregonP120.070.0688.8983.420.050.04
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0626.6727.53-0.03-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.140.0564.7169.850.040.02
TempleAmer0.140.0550.0053.120.000.00
CampbellBSth0.070.0543.7542.60-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.070.0561.1159.230.020.01
DukeACC0.000.0577.7873.860.000.03
NorthwesternB100.140.0578.9569.160.080.02
Penn St.B100.070.0557.8949.820.01-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.070.0565.0055.280.020.01
Seton HallBE0.000.0566.6758.230.000.01
St. John'sBE0.070.0545.0038.54-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.070.0533.3328.99-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.070.0552.9451.300.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.130.0589.4779.540.100.03
LSUSEC0.140.0552.9438.780.01-0.01
VermontAE0.130.0575.0077.360.060.03
VirginiaACC0.130.0582.3576.300.090.03
FloridaSEC0.000.0577.7874.930.000.03
HofstraCAA0.130.0542.1143.49-0.02-0.01
Iowa St.B120.060.0564.7161.830.020.01
KentuckySEC0.070.0588.8987.510.050.04
MinnesotaB100.130.0578.9570.150.080.02
TennesseeSEC0.070.0547.0648.42-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.130.0583.3380.700.080.03
BYUWCC0.080.0370.0068.710.030.01
Cal PolyBW0.080.0318.7527.05-0.05-0.01
CaliforniaP120.080.0368.4264.450.030.01
HawaiiBW0.080.0343.7546.21-0.01-0.00
LibertyBSth0.080.0347.0651.38-0.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0335.2935.14-0.02-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0352.9450.600.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0317.6529.60-0.05-0.01
DenverSum0.080.0357.8955.950.010.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0358.8260.260.000.01
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0344.4443.57-0.01-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.0312.5019.98-0.00-0.02
IdahoBSky0.000.0340.0044.98-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.0361.1159.670.020.01
MontanaBSky0.080.0350.0058.290.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.080.0333.3340.46-0.03-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0014.44-0.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0360.0072.810.020.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.080.0355.5656.000.010.00
OklahomaB120.080.0347.0641.20-0.00-0.01
PurdueB100.080.0378.9576.890.050.02
UC RiversideBW0.080.0321.4330.89-0.04-0.01
DelawareCAA0.080.0333.3330.90-0.03-0.01
MercerSC0.080.0333.3343.06-0.03-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0350.0066.300.000.01
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0343.7543.70-0.01-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0388.8986.560.050.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.070.0343.7543.71-0.01-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0361.1147.020.00-0.00
IndianaB100.070.0368.4264.610.020.01
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0333.3335.90-0.02-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.070.0326.3229.57-0.03-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.0384.2179.280.000.02
Miami FLACC0.070.0370.5960.550.030.01
North CarolinaACC0.070.0384.2180.600.050.02
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0361.1162.280.020.01
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0322.2229.94-0.04-0.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0363.1651.610.000.00
RadfordBSth0.070.0341.1844.82-0.01-0.00
Texas TechB120.070.0377.7865.330.040.01
UtahP120.070.0368.7567.640.020.01
UTEPCUSA0.070.0318.7524.05-0.04-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0377.7862.530.000.01
VMISC0.070.0313.3315.24-0.05-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.070.0364.7157.700.020.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0317.6524.51-0.04-0.01
AuburnSEC0.070.0366.6755.390.020.00
BelmontOVC0.070.0375.0074.470.030.01
BuffaloMAC0.060.0337.5044.96-0.02-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0375.0074.870.030.01
DetroitHorz0.060.0316.6723.07-0.04-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0364.7158.520.020.00
KansasB120.060.0394.4481.800.060.02
Kansas St.B120.060.0377.7862.260.030.01
MichiganB100.060.0363.1658.150.020.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0383.3383.150.050.02
MississippiSEC0.000.0361.1155.030.000.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0329.4125.93-0.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.060.0372.2274.630.030.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0352.6347.720.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0358.8261.440.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0361.1169.300.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0368.7570.270.020.01
WinthropBSth0.060.0375.0075.420.030.01