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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Bucknell

Conference:Pat
Expected RPI:80.0
Current RPI:80
Expected SOS:216
Current SOS:216
Current Record:25-9
Expected Record:25-9
Current Conf Record:19-2
Expected Conf Record:19-2
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:17-2
Current OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC RPI:113
Expected OOC SOS:80



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-980.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Bucknell.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Monmouth (199.0)MAACA79-78L0%0.0
11-12Arkansas (30.0)SECA101-73L0%0.0
11-15North Carolina (4.0)ACCA93-81L0%0.0
11-18Maryland (74.0)B10A80-78L0%0.0
11-20Siena (299.0)MAACH115-92W100%0.0
11-22Ball St. (126.0)MACH87-83W100%0.0
11-26Stony Brook (208.0)AEA76-85W100%0.0
11-29Saint Joseph's (147.0)A10A83-70L0%0.0
12-2Vermont (60.0)AEH81-77W100%0.0
12-5Northeastern (55.0)CAAA82-64L0%0.0
12-16VCU (135.0)A10A85-79L0%0.0
12-19Richmond (176.0)A10A78-86W100%0.0
12-22La Salle (202.0)A10H88-81W100%0.0
12-29American (336.0)PatH84-55W100%0.0
1-2Boston University (212.0)PatH79-84L0%0.0
1-5Army (280.0)PatA66-83W100%0.0
1-8Lafayette (311.0)PatA75-80W100%0.0
1-11Lehigh (214.0)PatH78-65W100%0.0
1-15Colgate (185.0)PatA51-63W100%0.0
1-17Loyola MD (322.0)PatA70-78W100%0.0
1-20Holy Cross (265.0)PatH77-56W100%0.0
1-24Navy (200.0)PatA67-87W100%0.0
1-28Boston University (212.0)PatA79-91W100%0.0
1-31Army (280.0)PatH83-71W100%0.0
2-3Lafayette (311.0)PatH74-59W100%0.0
2-5Lehigh (214.0)PatA92-89L0%0.0
2-12Colgate (185.0)PatH65-64W100%0.0
2-14Loyola MD (322.0)PatH94-53W100%0.0
2-17Holy Cross (265.0)PatA67-68W100%0.0
2-21Navy (200.0)PatH85-61W100%0.0
2-24American (336.0)PatA61-80W100%0.0
3-1Loyola MD (322.0)PatH83-78W100%0.0
3-4Boston University (212.0)PatH90-59W100%0.0
3-7Colgate (185.0)PatH83-54W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Bucknell's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Bucknell's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Bucknell.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BucknellPat26.5426.5478.7778.7715.2715.27
ColgatePat5.395.3964.2964.291.541.54
Boston UniversityPat5.365.3648.1548.15-0.20-0.20
Loyola MDPat5.345.3429.6329.63-2.18-2.18
Holy CrossPat4.044.0441.3841.38-0.70-0.70
LafayettePat3.993.9932.1432.14-1.42-1.42
LehighPat3.993.9951.8551.850.150.15
ArmyPat3.943.9444.4444.44-0.44-0.44
NavyPat3.923.9265.5265.521.221.22
AmericanPat3.923.9221.4321.43-2.24-2.24
SienaMAAC1.641.6425.8125.81-0.79-0.79
VermontAE1.611.6181.2581.251.011.01
La SalleA101.611.6141.9441.94-0.26-0.26
Stony BrookAE1.581.5840.0040.00-0.32-0.32
RichmondA101.581.5838.7138.71-0.36-0.36
MonmouthMAAC1.571.5733.3333.33-0.52-0.52
NortheasternCAA1.571.5767.7467.740.560.56
VCUA101.561.5653.1253.120.100.10
Saint Joseph'sA101.561.5648.3948.39-0.05-0.05
Ball St.MAC1.491.4960.0060.000.300.30
MarylandB101.491.4956.6756.670.200.20
North CarolinaACC1.491.4970.5970.590.610.61
ArkansasSEC1.491.4966.6766.670.500.50
AlbanyAE0.350.3567.7467.740.130.13
MaristMAAC0.290.2919.3519.35-0.18-0.18
BinghamtonAE0.290.2931.0331.03-0.11-0.11
New HampshireAE0.260.2627.5927.59-0.12-0.12
UMBCAE0.260.2667.7467.740.090.09
UMass LowellAE0.240.2437.9337.93-0.06-0.06
George MasonA100.230.2348.4848.48-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.230.2378.1278.120.130.13
ConnecticutAmer0.210.2143.7543.75-0.03-0.03
MaineAE0.210.2113.3313.33-0.15-0.15
MassachusettsA100.210.2139.3939.39-0.04-0.04
Rhode IslandA100.210.2178.1278.120.120.12
ColumbiaIvy0.190.1926.9226.92-0.09-0.09
DrexelCAA0.190.1937.5037.50-0.05-0.05
HarvardIvy0.190.1956.6756.670.030.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.190.1943.7543.75-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.190.1970.9770.970.080.08
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.170.1753.3353.330.010.01
HofstraCAA0.170.1760.0060.000.030.03
FairfieldMAAC0.170.1751.5251.520.010.01
PennIvy0.170.1774.1974.190.080.08
QuinnipiacMAAC0.160.1636.3636.36-0.04-0.04
DaytonA100.160.1645.1645.16-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.160.1629.0329.03-0.07-0.07
PrincetonIvy0.150.1542.8642.86-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.140.1445.1645.16-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.140.1440.7440.74-0.03-0.03
TowsonCAA0.140.1453.3353.330.010.01
IonaMAAC0.140.1460.6160.610.030.03
ManhattanMAAC0.140.1445.1645.16-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
VirginiaACC0.140.1493.9493.940.120.12
Boston CollegeACC0.140.1455.8855.880.020.02
Saint LouisA100.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
SyracuseACC0.140.1460.6160.610.030.03
George WashingtonA100.140.1445.4545.45-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
St. Francis PANEC0.120.1257.1457.140.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
NJITASun0.120.1242.8642.86-0.02-0.02
ElonCAA0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
DuquesneA100.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
YaleIvy0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
MemphisAmer0.100.1061.7661.760.020.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
DartmouthIvy0.100.1023.0823.08-0.05-0.05
VillanovaBE0.090.0988.2488.240.070.07
Wake ForestACC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
Kent St.MAC0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Michigan St.B100.090.0987.8887.880.070.07
HartfordAE0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.090.0977.4277.420.050.05
MichiganB100.090.0979.4179.410.050.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0716.6716.67-0.05-0.05
VMISC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
BryantNEC0.070.079.689.68-0.06-0.06
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
RiderMAAC0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
ToledoMAC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Ohio St.B100.070.0775.0075.000.030.03
KentuckySEC0.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
Notre DameACC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
DukeACC0.060.0678.7978.790.040.04
Air ForceMWC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
USCP120.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
HowardMEAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
WagnerNEC0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0515.6215.62-0.03-0.03
DenverSum0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
PurdueB100.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
RutgersB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
WisconsinB100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
TempleAmer0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
LouisvilleACC0.040.0460.6160.610.010.01
StanfordP120.040.0454.5554.550.000.00
AuburnSEC0.040.0478.1278.120.020.02
FloridaSEC0.040.0462.5062.500.010.01
LSUSEC0.040.0454.8454.840.000.00
MississippiSEC0.040.0437.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.040.0461.2961.290.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.040.0462.5062.500.010.01
ClemsonACC0.040.0471.8871.880.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.040.0465.6265.620.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.020.0238.4638.46-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
ButlerBE0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.020.0224.2424.24-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
IUPUIHorz0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.020.0264.7164.710.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
ValparaisoMVC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
FurmanSC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
MercerSC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.020.0216.6716.67-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
CaliforniaP120.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
TexasB120.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
WinthropBSth0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
HoustonAmer0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00