Bucknell

Conference:	Pat
Expected RPI:	80.0
Current RPI:	80
Expected SOS:	216
Current SOS:	216
Current Record:	25-9
Expected Record:	25-9
Current Conf Record:	19-2
Expected Conf Record:	19-2
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	7-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	17-2
Current OOC Record:	6-7
Expected OOC Record:	6-7
Expected OOC RPI:	113
Expected OOC SOS:	80

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
25-9	80.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Bucknell.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Monmouth (199.0)	MAAC	A	79-78	L	0%
11-12	Arkansas (30.0)	SEC	A	101-73	L	0%
11-15	North Carolina (4.0)	ACC	A	93-81	L	0%
11-18	Maryland (74.0)	B10	A	80-78	L	0%
11-20	Siena (299.0)	MAAC	H	115-92	W	100%
11-22	Ball St. (126.0)	MAC	H	87-83	W	100%
11-26	Stony Brook (208.0)	AE	A	76-85	W	100%
11-29	Saint Joseph's (147.0)	A10	A	83-70	L	0%
12-2	Vermont (60.0)	AE	H	81-77	W	100%
12-5	Northeastern (55.0)	CAA	A	82-64	L	0%
12-16	VCU (135.0)	A10	A	85-79	L	0%
12-19	Richmond (176.0)	A10	A	78-86	W	100%
12-22	La Salle (202.0)	A10	H	88-81	W	100%
12-29	American (336.0)	Pat	H	84-55	W	100%
1-2	Boston University (212.0)	Pat	H	79-84	L	0%
1-5	Army (280.0)	Pat	A	66-83	W	100%
1-8	Lafayette (311.0)	Pat	A	75-80	W	100%
1-11	Lehigh (214.0)	Pat	H	78-65	W	100%
1-15	Colgate (185.0)	Pat	A	51-63	W	100%
1-17	Loyola MD (322.0)	Pat	A	70-78	W	100%
1-20	Holy Cross (265.0)	Pat	H	77-56	W	100%
1-24	Navy (200.0)	Pat	A	67-87	W	100%
1-28	Boston University (212.0)	Pat	A	79-91	W	100%
1-31	Army (280.0)	Pat	H	83-71	W	100%
2-3	Lafayette (311.0)	Pat	H	74-59	W	100%
2-5	Lehigh (214.0)	Pat	A	92-89	L	0%
2-12	Colgate (185.0)	Pat	H	65-64	W	100%
2-14	Loyola MD (322.0)	Pat	H	94-53	W	100%
2-17	Holy Cross (265.0)	Pat	A	67-68	W	100%
2-21	Navy (200.0)	Pat	H	85-61	W	100%
2-24	American (336.0)	Pat	A	61-80	W	100%
3-1	Loyola MD (322.0)	Pat	H	83-78	W	100%
3-4	Boston University (212.0)	Pat	H	90-59	W	100%
3-7	Colgate (185.0)	Pat	H	83-54	W	100%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Bucknell's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Bucknell's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Bucknell.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Bucknell	Pat	26.54	26.54	78.77	78.77	15.27	15.27
Colgate	Pat	5.39	5.39	64.29	64.29	1.54	1.54
Boston University	Pat	5.36	5.36	48.15	48.15	-0.20	-0.20
Loyola MD	Pat	5.34	5.34	29.63	29.63	-2.18	-2.18
Holy Cross	Pat	4.04	4.04	41.38	41.38	-0.70	-0.70
Lafayette	Pat	3.99	3.99	32.14	32.14	-1.42	-1.42
Lehigh	Pat	3.99	3.99	51.85	51.85	0.15	0.15
Army	Pat	3.94	3.94	44.44	44.44	-0.44	-0.44
Navy	Pat	3.92	3.92	65.52	65.52	1.22	1.22
American	Pat	3.92	3.92	21.43	21.43	-2.24	-2.24
Siena	MAAC	1.64	1.64	25.81	25.81	-0.79	-0.79
Vermont	AE	1.61	1.61	81.25	81.25	1.01	1.01
La Salle	A10	1.61	1.61	41.94	41.94	-0.26	-0.26
Stony Brook	AE	1.58	1.58	40.00	40.00	-0.32	-0.32
Richmond	A10	1.58	1.58	38.71	38.71	-0.36	-0.36
Monmouth	MAAC	1.57	1.57	33.33	33.33	-0.52	-0.52
Northeastern	CAA	1.57	1.57	67.74	67.74	0.56	0.56
VCU	A10	1.56	1.56	53.12	53.12	0.10	0.10
Saint Joseph's	A10	1.56	1.56	48.39	48.39	-0.05	-0.05
Ball St.	MAC	1.49	1.49	60.00	60.00	0.30	0.30
Maryland	B10	1.49	1.49	56.67	56.67	0.20	0.20
North Carolina	ACC	1.49	1.49	70.59	70.59	0.61	0.61
Arkansas	SEC	1.49	1.49	66.67	66.67	0.50	0.50
Albany	AE	0.35	0.35	67.74	67.74	0.13	0.13
Marist	MAAC	0.29	0.29	19.35	19.35	-0.18	-0.18
Binghamton	AE	0.29	0.29	31.03	31.03	-0.11	-0.11
New Hampshire	AE	0.26	0.26	27.59	27.59	-0.12	-0.12
UMBC	AE	0.26	0.26	67.74	67.74	0.09	0.09
UMass Lowell	AE	0.24	0.24	37.93	37.93	-0.06	-0.06
George Mason	A10	0.23	0.23	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.23	0.23	78.12	78.12	0.13	0.13
Connecticut	Amer	0.21	0.21	43.75	43.75	-0.03	-0.03
Maine	AE	0.21	0.21	13.33	13.33	-0.15	-0.15
Massachusetts	A10	0.21	0.21	39.39	39.39	-0.04	-0.04
Rhode Island	A10	0.21	0.21	78.12	78.12	0.12	0.12
Columbia	Ivy	0.19	0.19	26.92	26.92	-0.09	-0.09
Drexel	CAA	0.19	0.19	37.50	37.50	-0.05	-0.05
Harvard	Ivy	0.19	0.19	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.19	0.19	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.19	0.19	70.97	70.97	0.08	0.08
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.17	0.17	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.17	0.17	60.00	60.00	0.03	0.03
Fairfield	MAAC	0.17	0.17	51.52	51.52	0.01	0.01
Penn	Ivy	0.17	0.17	74.19	74.19	0.08	0.08
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.16	0.16	36.36	36.36	-0.04	-0.04
Dayton	A10	0.16	0.16	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Fordham	A10	0.16	0.16	29.03	29.03	-0.07	-0.07
Princeton	Ivy	0.15	0.15	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.14	0.14	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.14	0.14	40.74	40.74	-0.03	-0.03
Towson	CAA	0.14	0.14	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.14	0.14	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Manhattan	MAAC	0.14	0.14	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.14	0.14	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Virginia	ACC	0.14	0.14	93.94	93.94	0.12	0.12
Boston College	ACC	0.14	0.14	55.88	55.88	0.02	0.02
Saint Louis	A10	0.14	0.14	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Syracuse	ACC	0.14	0.14	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
George Washington	A10	0.14	0.14	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Davidson	A10	0.14	0.14	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.12	0.12	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Niagara	MAAC	0.12	0.12	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
NJIT	ASun	0.12	0.12	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Elon	CAA	0.12	0.12	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.12	0.12	25.00	25.00	-0.06	-0.06
Duquesne	A10	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Yale	Ivy	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Memphis	Amer	0.10	0.10	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.10	0.10	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.10	0.10	23.08	23.08	-0.05	-0.05
Villanova	BE	0.09	0.09	88.24	88.24	0.07	0.07
Wake Forest	ACC	0.09	0.09	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Florida St.	ACC	0.09	0.09	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Kent St.	MAC	0.09	0.09	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Marquette	BE	0.09	0.09	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Michigan St.	B10	0.09	0.09	87.88	87.88	0.07	0.07
Hartford	AE	0.09	0.09	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
College of Charleston	CAA	0.09	0.09	77.42	77.42	0.05	0.05
Michigan	B10	0.09	0.09	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.07	0.07	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.07	0.07	16.67	16.67	-0.05	-0.05
VMI	SC	0.07	0.07	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.07	0.07	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Bryant	NEC	0.07	0.07	9.68	9.68	-0.06	-0.06
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.07	0.07	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Rider	MAAC	0.07	0.07	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Toledo	MAC	0.07	0.07	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.07	0.07	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.07	0.07	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Ohio St.	B10	0.07	0.07	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.07	0.07	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Notre Dame	ACC	0.07	0.07	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.06	0.06	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Duke	ACC	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Air Force	MWC	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
USC	P12	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Wagner	NEC	0.05	0.05	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
West Virginia	B12	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Western Illinois	Sum	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	15.62	15.62	-0.03	-0.03
Denver	Sum	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Lipscomb	ASun	0.05	0.05	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.05	82.35	82.35	0.03	0.03
Rutgers	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
North Florida	ASun	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Temple	Amer	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.05	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Louisville	ACC	0.04	0.04	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Stanford	P12	0.04	0.04	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.04	0.04	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Florida	SEC	0.04	0.04	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
LSU	SEC	0.04	0.04	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Mississippi	SEC	0.04	0.04	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.04	0.04	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.04	0.04	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M	SEC	0.04	0.04	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.04	0.04	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.04	0.04	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Brown	Ivy	0.02	0.02	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.02	0.02	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Butler	BE	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.02	0.02	24.24	24.24	-0.01	-0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Indiana	B10	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.02	0.02	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
IUPUI	Horz	0.02	0.02	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.02	0.02	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Nebraska	B10	0.02	0.02	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Oregon	P12	0.02	0.02	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Providence	BE	0.02	0.02	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Valparaiso	MVC	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Cincinnati	Amer	0.02	0.02	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Furman	SC	0.02	0.02	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.02	0.02	80.65	80.65	0.01	0.01
Mercer	SC	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.02	0.02	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
South Alabama	SB	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
St. John's	BE	0.02	0.02	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Utah St.	MWC	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Washington St.	P12	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Appalachian St.	SB	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
California	P12	0.02	0.02	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.02	0.02	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Texas	B12	0.02	0.02	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Winthrop	BSth	0.02	0.02	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.02	0.02	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.02	0.02	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Fresno St.	MWC	0.02	0.02	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Houston	Amer	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.02	0.02	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.02	0.02	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Samford	SC	0.02	0.02	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Troy	SB	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.02	0.02	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Portland	WCC	0.02	0.02	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	Amer	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Wofford	SC	0.02	0.02	60.00	60.00	0.00	0.00