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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.


Bucknell

Conference:Pat
Expected RPI:71.1
Current RPI:76
Expected SOS:185
Current SOS:182
Current Record:17-6
Expected Record:22-7
Current Conf Record:8-0
Expected Conf Record:13-1
Probability of Auto Bid:56.28%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-0
Current OOC Record:9-6
Expected OOC Record:9-6
Expected OOC RPI:92
Expected OOC SOS:157



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-656.522.58%
22-767.841.25%
21-880.326.71%
20-992.98.23%
19-10106.21.14%
18-11119.50.08%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Bucknell.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Minnesota (68.5)B10A70-58L0%0.0
11-15Vanderbilt (31.5)SECA80-68L0%0.0
11-19St. Francis PA (303.9)NECH73-42W100%0.0
11-22Marist (276.6)MAACA68-74W100%0.0
11-25Princeton (117.6)IvyH62-56W100%0.0
11-27Morehead St. (187.8)OVCH54-50W100%0.0
11-30George Mason (94.6)CAAA61-57L0%0.0
12-3La Salle (69.1)A10A78-52L0%0.0
12-6Binghamton (343.4)AEA63-77W100%0.0
12-17Richmond (135.3)A10H79-65W100%0.0
12-20Syracuse (2.1)BEA80-61L0%0.0
12-22Boston University (175.2)AEA61-75W100%0.0
12-28Loyola MD (83.9)MAACH67-72L0%0.0
12-31Cornell (178.3)IvyH63-60W100%0.0
1-3Dartmouth (320.3)IvyA59-67W100%0.0
1-7Army (293.1)PatA59-75W100%0.0
1-11Colgate (296.0)PatH70-57W100%0.0
1-14Lafayette (210.2)PatA65-79W100%0.0
1-18Lehigh (109.7)PatA61-68W100%0.0
1-21Holy Cross (226.1)PatH75-41W100%0.0
1-25American (150.9)PatH67-61W100%0.0
1-28Navy (318.8)PatA51-66W100%0.0
2-4Army (293.1)PatH81-68W100%0.0
2-8Colgate (296.0)PatA0-090%13.9
2-11Lafayette (210.2)PatH0-089%13.6
2-15Lehigh (109.7)PatH0-058%2.2
2-18Holy Cross (226.1)PatA0-078%8.5
2-23American (150.9)PatA0-063%3.5
2-25Navy (318.8)PatH0-097%20.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Bucknell's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Bucknell's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Bucknell.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BucknellPat26.2126.2979.0579.1915.2315.35
ColgatePat2.804.3331.8231.31-1.02-1.62
LafayettePat2.764.3045.4545.74-0.25-0.37
ArmyPat4.834.2945.0044.92-0.48-0.44
AmericanPat2.714.2768.1867.130.991.46
LehighPat2.674.2477.2778.911.462.45
Holy CrossPat2.614.2042.8644.45-0.37-0.47
NavyPat2.564.1710.0014.11-2.05-2.99
DartmouthIvy2.432.0315.0017.79-1.70-1.31
CornellIvy2.472.0238.8943.04-0.55-0.28
BinghamtonAE2.511.960.004.17-2.51-1.80
St. Francis PANEC2.361.9622.7323.57-1.29-1.04
PrincetonIvy2.331.9450.0054.820.000.19
MaristMAAC2.371.9036.3634.62-0.65-0.59
La SalleA102.361.9069.5767.780.920.68
Boston UniversityAE2.371.8750.0053.610.000.14
Loyola MDMAAC2.221.8176.1972.501.160.82
RichmondA102.221.8152.1750.100.100.00
Morehead St.OVC2.281.7847.6248.73-0.11-0.05
SyracuseBE2.221.7895.6591.742.031.49
VanderbiltSEC2.221.7868.1864.730.810.53
George MasonCAA2.171.7275.0071.591.090.74
MinnesotaB102.171.7268.1860.020.790.35
ColumbiaIvy0.460.4555.0054.800.050.04
AlbanyAE0.390.3660.0060.420.080.07
QuinnipiacNEC0.280.3356.5257.150.040.05
New HampshireAE0.340.3335.0038.58-0.10-0.07
YaleIvy0.260.3172.2263.190.110.08
PennsylvaniaIvy0.250.3054.5556.840.020.04
HarvardIvy0.250.2790.4887.910.210.21
BrownIvy0.200.2727.2723.80-0.09-0.14
MonmouthNEC0.280.2428.0028.91-0.13-0.10
St. Peter'sMAAC0.240.2421.7424.58-0.13-0.12
HartfordAE0.230.2317.3920.97-0.15-0.14
FordhamA100.230.2340.9134.50-0.04-0.07
SienaMAAC0.260.2145.4545.55-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.240.2126.0928.60-0.12-0.09
BryantNEC0.250.218.3310.86-0.20-0.16
St. Francis NYNEC0.240.2156.5255.950.030.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.190.2144.0045.89-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.190.2150.0049.730.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.280.2068.0069.070.100.08
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.190.2013.6416.35-0.14-0.14
DelawareCAA0.280.2047.8350.65-0.010.00
Longwoodind0.250.1830.0027.84-0.10-0.08
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.150.1820.0019.96-0.09-0.11
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.190.1833.3338.38-0.06-0.04
WagnerNEC0.200.1882.6184.570.130.12
FairfieldMAAC0.190.1854.5554.300.020.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.190.188.7012.13-0.16-0.14
RiderMAAC0.250.1837.5038.52-0.06-0.04
VermontAE0.230.1760.0062.490.050.04
HofstraCAA0.180.1732.0035.39-0.07-0.05
Saint Joseph'sA100.180.1762.5062.490.050.04
George WashingtonA100.190.1734.7832.08-0.06-0.06
Central ConnecticutNEC0.190.1545.4545.70-0.02-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.240.1517.3919.81-0.16-0.09
NiagaraMAAC0.190.1537.5041.54-0.05-0.03
Stony BrookAE0.240.1566.6768.050.080.05
St. BonaventureA100.200.1560.0059.060.040.03
IonaMAAC0.140.1579.1780.100.080.09
VillanovaBE0.180.1445.4546.08-0.02-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.150.1340.9143.66-0.03-0.02
ElonSC0.160.1250.0047.590.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.100.1250.0051.730.000.00
College of CharlestonSC0.140.1258.3359.980.020.02
Penn St.B100.150.1241.6738.67-0.03-0.03
DrexelCAA0.200.1279.1778.100.110.07
North Carolina St.ACC0.200.1270.8364.420.080.03
ConnecticutBE0.050.1268.1863.990.020.03
ProvidenceBE0.140.1256.5250.270.020.00
RutgersBE0.150.1250.0046.810.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.200.1272.7364.430.090.03
KentuckySEC0.100.1295.8392.570.090.10
Michigan St.B100.090.1276.1972.910.050.05
William & MaryCAA0.140.1212.5013.44-0.10-0.08
WisconsinB100.050.1275.0073.970.020.06
NortheasternCAA0.150.1147.8348.56-0.01-0.00
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.090.1180.0078.060.060.06
Rhode IslandA100.180.1120.8320.60-0.10-0.07
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.0968.1869.680.040.04
MissouriB120.100.0991.3087.180.080.07
TulaneCUSA0.100.0961.9058.590.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.100.0956.5253.770.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0930.4326.44-0.04-0.04
Long IslandNEC0.090.0970.8371.050.040.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.090.0940.9138.38-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticSB0.090.0936.3639.72-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.050.0980.9577.380.030.05
HamptonMEAC0.090.0936.3638.48-0.03-0.02
LibertyBSth0.090.0927.2727.21-0.04-0.04
RadfordBSth0.090.098.7013.10-0.07-0.06
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0968.0070.030.020.03
St. John'sBE0.090.0943.4840.28-0.01-0.02
PittsburghBE0.140.0960.8758.160.030.01
CharlotteA100.090.0850.0049.450.00-0.00
DaytonA100.090.0860.8760.960.020.02
DuquesneA100.130.0859.0956.350.020.01
FloridaSEC0.090.0882.6177.630.060.05
James MadisonCAA0.130.0840.0040.18-0.03-0.02
LouisvilleBE0.050.0878.2672.660.030.04
MassachusettsA100.090.0873.9168.580.040.03
Old DominionCAA0.130.0860.0058.290.030.01
TempleA100.090.0877.2775.060.050.04
TowsonCAA0.130.084.005.26-0.12-0.07
XavierA100.090.0865.2263.740.030.02
MercerASun0.050.0670.8371.640.020.03
BuffaloMAC0.110.0668.4266.450.040.02
Air ForceMWC0.100.0647.3742.16-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0633.3335.97-0.02-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0633.3334.47-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0634.7838.42-0.02-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0626.3229.71-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.100.0660.8759.760.020.01
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.100.0619.0524.61-0.06-0.03
The CitadelSC0.100.069.5211.44-0.08-0.05
HowardMEAC0.050.0618.1822.22-0.03-0.03
Iowa St.B120.050.0673.9168.430.020.02
West VirginiaBE0.090.0665.2265.170.030.02
Central MichiganMAC0.100.0628.5734.20-0.04-0.02
Notre DameBE0.100.0665.2262.650.030.01
South FloridaBE0.050.0654.5548.600.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.090.0647.8343.66-0.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.090.0681.8280.430.060.03
DavidsonSC0.090.0676.1976.760.050.03
DePaulBE0.090.0650.0042.830.00-0.01
IndianaB100.050.0675.0075.780.020.03
Indiana St.MVC0.090.0656.5254.220.010.00
IowaB100.090.0654.1749.440.01-0.00
MarquetteBE0.090.0679.1775.980.050.03
NC WilmingtonCAA0.040.0639.1336.10-0.01-0.02
NebraskaB100.000.0652.3846.680.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.050.0661.9055.140.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0640.9139.56-0.01-0.01
St. LouisA100.000.0677.2777.670.000.03
TennesseeSEC0.050.0645.4544.66-0.00-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.090.0656.5255.200.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0645.4541.20-0.00-0.01
MarylandACC0.060.0359.0950.820.010.00
Ball St.MAC0.050.0355.0057.410.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0347.6248.82-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0319.0522.37-0.04-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.060.0372.7371.710.030.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0362.5062.060.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0371.4369.050.020.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.03100.0094.550.050.03
South DakotaSum0.050.0326.3228.83-0.02-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0347.6247.18-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.034.359.66-0.05-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0356.5253.100.010.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0342.1149.81-0.01-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0350.0048.900.00-0.00
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.050.0335.0035.31-0.02-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0350.0051.530.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.050.0368.1869.100.020.01
Appalachian St.SC0.050.0335.0039.29-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0369.5765.150.020.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0356.5248.810.01-0.00
CincinnatiBE0.050.0369.5765.470.020.01
Florida InternationalSB0.040.0333.3337.16-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.CAA0.040.0366.6769.690.010.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0361.9067.230.000.01
Louisiana St.SEC0.000.0359.0957.280.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.050.0359.0959.720.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0330.0034.15-0.02-0.01
MichiganB100.050.0372.7366.810.020.01
Middle TennesseeSB0.050.0383.3384.760.030.02
MississippiSEC0.000.0363.6456.710.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0378.2672.340.030.01
NC GreensboroSC0.050.0334.7833.46-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0361.9063.520.010.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0386.9685.460.000.02
OregonP120.050.0369.5764.530.020.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0363.6463.160.010.01
PurdueB100.050.0365.2260.580.010.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0365.2263.740.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0373.9175.490.020.01
Southern CaliforniaP120.050.0325.0025.13-0.02-0.01
StanfordP120.050.0369.5768.290.020.01
TexasB120.040.0360.8761.370.010.01
UCLAP120.050.0354.5556.790.000.00
VirginiaACC0.040.0381.8276.800.030.01