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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Bucknell

Conference:Pat
Expected RPI:136.0
Current RPI:136
Expected SOS:175
Current SOS:175
Current Record:18-14
Expected Record:18-14
Current Conf Record:14-6
Expected Conf Record:14-6
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-1
Current OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC RPI:227
Expected OOC SOS:173



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-14136.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Bucknell.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Marist (317.0)MAACH75-72W100%0.0
11-17Michigan (81.0)B10A77-53L0%0.0
11-20Villanova (3.0)BEA72-65L0%0.0
11-22Mount St. Mary's (188.0)NECH69-73L0%0.0
11-24Toledo (79.0)MACA92-65L0%0.0
11-25Maryland Eastern Shore (195.0)MEACN58-55W100%0.0
11-28Penn St. (108.0)B10H80-88L0%0.0
12-1Fairfield (299.0)MAACA66-72W100%0.0
12-6Columbia (196.0)IvyA62-39L0%0.0
12-8Albany (99.0)AEH61-58W100%0.0
12-22Wake Forest (150.0)ACCA60-53L0%0.0
12-28Siena (261.0)MAACA73-71L0%0.0
12-31American (135.0)PatH57-47W100%0.0
1-3Colgate (194.0)PatA68-62L0%0.0
1-7Lafayette (122.0)PatH79-69W100%0.0
1-10Holy Cross (200.0)PatA65-62L0%0.0
1-14Navy (252.0)PatH65-63W100%0.0
1-17Army (235.0)PatH81-75W100%0.0
1-21Loyola MD (270.0)PatA61-75W100%0.0
1-24Boston University (198.0)PatA77-92W100%0.0
1-28Lehigh (175.0)PatH68-62W100%0.0
1-31Colgate (194.0)PatH69-71L0%0.0
2-4Lafayette (122.0)PatA84-74L0%0.0
2-8Holy Cross (200.0)PatH70-57W100%0.0
2-11Navy (252.0)PatA51-52W100%0.0
2-15Army (235.0)PatA75-78W100%0.0
2-18Loyola MD (270.0)PatH61-50W100%0.0
2-22Boston University (198.0)PatH78-69W100%0.0
2-25Lehigh (175.0)PatA84-65L0%0.0
2-28American (135.0)PatA69-71W100%0.0
3-5Holy Cross (200.0)PatH90-83W100%0.0
3-8Lafayette (122.0)PatH74-80L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Bucknell's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Bucknell's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Bucknell.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BucknellPat26.4926.4957.9757.974.224.22
LafayettePat5.675.6760.7160.711.221.22
Holy CrossPat5.645.6446.1546.15-0.43-0.43
AmericanPat4.304.3054.8454.840.420.42
Loyola MDPat4.244.2439.2939.29-0.91-0.91
ColgatePat4.214.2143.3343.33-0.56-0.56
NavyPat4.184.1841.3841.38-0.72-0.72
LehighPat4.154.1551.8551.850.150.15
Boston UniversityPat4.134.1344.4444.44-0.46-0.46
ArmyPat4.134.1351.8551.850.150.15
ColumbiaIvy1.761.7642.3142.31-0.27-0.27
AlbanyAE1.741.7477.4277.420.960.96
FairfieldMAAC1.741.7423.3323.33-0.93-0.93
SienaMAAC1.741.7433.3333.33-0.58-0.58
MaristMAAC1.721.7222.5822.58-0.94-0.94
Mount St. Mary'sNEC1.711.7148.2848.28-0.06-0.06
VillanovaBE1.671.6793.9493.941.461.46
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC1.661.6658.0658.060.270.27
MichiganB101.611.6146.6746.67-0.11-0.11
Wake ForestACC1.591.5938.7138.71-0.36-0.36
Penn St.B101.591.5951.5251.520.050.05
ToledoMAC1.561.5659.3859.380.290.29
QuinnipiacMAAC0.310.3150.0050.000.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.280.2853.3353.330.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.280.2816.6716.67-0.19-0.19
St. Francis PANEC0.280.2850.0050.000.000.00
NJITind0.280.2856.0056.000.030.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.260.2645.1645.16-0.02-0.02
SyracuseACC0.250.2558.0658.060.040.04
PennIvy0.230.2332.1432.14-0.08-0.08
Stony BrookAE0.230.2365.6265.620.070.07
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.230.2347.0647.06-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.210.2141.3841.38-0.04-0.04
RiderMAAC0.200.2065.6265.620.060.06
IonaMAAC0.200.2076.4776.470.110.11
NiagaraMAAC0.200.2026.6726.67-0.09-0.09
HarvardIvy0.190.1974.0774.070.090.09
BrownIvy0.190.1937.9337.93-0.04-0.04
UMBCAE0.180.1813.3313.33-0.13-0.13
New HampshireAE0.180.1858.6258.620.030.03
ManhattanMAAC0.170.1759.3859.380.030.03
IllinoisB100.170.1759.3859.380.030.03
PrincetonIvy0.160.1651.7251.720.010.01
YaleIvy0.160.1666.6766.670.050.05
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.160.1625.0025.00-0.08-0.08
WagnerNEC0.160.1631.0331.03-0.06-0.06
DukeACC0.150.1587.8887.880.110.11
Robert MorrisNEC0.150.1557.5857.580.020.02
MonmouthMAAC0.150.1554.5554.550.010.01
Ohio St.B100.150.1569.7069.700.060.06
ProvidenceBE0.140.1466.6766.670.050.05
St. Francis NYNEC0.130.1366.6766.670.040.04
HartfordAE0.130.1344.8344.83-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.130.1367.6567.650.050.05
VMISC0.130.1332.1432.14-0.05-0.05
MaineAE0.130.1310.0010.00-0.10-0.10
Michigan St.B100.120.1267.6567.650.040.04
La SalleA100.120.1251.5251.520.000.00
BryantNEC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
Arizona St.P120.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
DePaulBE0.100.1037.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
ButlerBE0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
RutgersB100.100.1031.2531.25-0.04-0.04
WisconsinB100.100.1091.1891.180.080.08
Eastern MichiganMAC0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
KentuckySEC0.080.08100.00100.000.080.08
DartmouthIvy0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.080.0816.1316.13-0.05-0.05
DelawareCAA0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
USCP120.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
West VirginiaB120.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
VermontAE0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
NorthwesternB100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Seton HallBE0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
IowaB100.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
MarylandB100.070.0781.8281.820.050.05
NebraskaB100.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
VCUA100.070.0774.2974.290.030.03
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0771.4371.430.030.03
AkronMAC0.070.0758.8258.820.010.01
TempleAmer0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
MarquetteBE0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Texas TechB120.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
The CitadelSC0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0526.9226.92-0.02-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
OregonP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.050.0590.6290.620.040.04
IndianaB100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
DuquesneA100.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
CreightonBE0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
St. John'sBE0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0358.8258.820.010.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
RadfordBSth0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0372.4172.410.010.01
SMUAmer0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
South DakotaSum0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
ElonCAA0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.020.026.906.90-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0265.5265.520.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Miami FLACC0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.020.0268.5768.570.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0275.8675.860.010.01
RichmondA100.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
SamfordSC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
TulaneAmer0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01