Bucknell

Conference:	Pat
Expected RPI:	71.1
Current RPI:	76
Expected SOS:	185
Current SOS:	182
Current Record:	17-6
Expected Record:	22-7
Current Conf Record:	8-0
Expected Conf Record:	13-1
Probability of Auto Bid:	56.28%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	8-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	13-0
Current OOC Record:	9-6
Expected OOC Record:	9-6
Expected OOC RPI:	92
Expected OOC SOS:	157

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
23-6	56.5	22.58%
22-7	67.8	41.25%
21-8	80.3	26.71%
20-9	92.9	8.23%
19-10	106.2	1.14%
18-11	119.5	0.08%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Bucknell.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Minnesota (68.5)	B10	A	70-58	L	0%	0.0
11-15	Vanderbilt (31.5)	SEC	A	80-68	L	0%	0.0
11-19	St. Francis PA (303.9)	NEC	H	73-42	W	100%	0.0
11-22	Marist (276.6)	MAAC	A	68-74	W	100%	0.0
11-25	Princeton (117.6)	Ivy	H	62-56	W	100%	0.0
11-27	Morehead St. (187.8)	OVC	H	54-50	W	100%	0.0
11-30	George Mason (94.6)	CAA	A	61-57	L	0%	0.0
12-3	La Salle (69.1)	A10	A	78-52	L	0%	0.0
12-6	Binghamton (343.4)	AE	A	63-77	W	100%	0.0
12-17	Richmond (135.3)	A10	H	79-65	W	100%	0.0
12-20	Syracuse (2.1)	BE	A	80-61	L	0%	0.0
12-22	Boston University (175.2)	AE	A	61-75	W	100%	0.0
12-28	Loyola MD (83.9)	MAAC	H	67-72	L	0%	0.0
12-31	Cornell (178.3)	Ivy	H	63-60	W	100%	0.0
1-3	Dartmouth (320.3)	Ivy	A	59-67	W	100%	0.0
1-7	Army (293.1)	Pat	A	59-75	W	100%	0.0
1-11	Colgate (296.0)	Pat	H	70-57	W	100%	0.0
1-14	Lafayette (210.2)	Pat	A	65-79	W	100%	0.0
1-18	Lehigh (109.7)	Pat	A	61-68	W	100%	0.0
1-21	Holy Cross (226.1)	Pat	H	75-41	W	100%	0.0
1-25	American (150.9)	Pat	H	67-61	W	100%	0.0
1-28	Navy (318.8)	Pat	A	51-66	W	100%	0.0
2-4	Army (293.1)	Pat	H	81-68	W	100%	0.0
2-8	Colgate (296.0)	Pat	A	0-0		90%	13.9
2-11	Lafayette (210.2)	Pat	H	0-0		89%	13.6
2-15	Lehigh (109.7)	Pat	H	0-0		58%	2.2
2-18	Holy Cross (226.1)	Pat	A	0-0		78%	8.5
2-23	American (150.9)	Pat	A	0-0		63%	3.5
2-25	Navy (318.8)	Pat	H	0-0		97%	20.3

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Bucknell's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Bucknell's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Bucknell.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Bucknell	Pat	26.21	26.29	79.05	79.19	15.23	15.35
Colgate	Pat	2.80	4.33	31.82	31.31	-1.02	-1.62
Lafayette	Pat	2.76	4.30	45.45	45.74	-0.25	-0.37
Army	Pat	4.83	4.29	45.00	44.92	-0.48	-0.44
American	Pat	2.71	4.27	68.18	67.13	0.99	1.46
Lehigh	Pat	2.67	4.24	77.27	78.91	1.46	2.45
Holy Cross	Pat	2.61	4.20	42.86	44.45	-0.37	-0.47
Navy	Pat	2.56	4.17	10.00	14.11	-2.05	-2.99
Dartmouth	Ivy	2.43	2.03	15.00	17.79	-1.70	-1.31
Cornell	Ivy	2.47	2.02	38.89	43.04	-0.55	-0.28
Binghamton	AE	2.51	1.96	0.00	4.17	-2.51	-1.80
St. Francis PA	NEC	2.36	1.96	22.73	23.57	-1.29	-1.04
Princeton	Ivy	2.33	1.94	50.00	54.82	0.00	0.19
Marist	MAAC	2.37	1.90	36.36	34.62	-0.65	-0.59
La Salle	A10	2.36	1.90	69.57	67.78	0.92	0.68
Boston University	AE	2.37	1.87	50.00	53.61	0.00	0.14
Loyola MD	MAAC	2.22	1.81	76.19	72.50	1.16	0.82
Richmond	A10	2.22	1.81	52.17	50.10	0.10	0.00
Morehead St.	OVC	2.28	1.78	47.62	48.73	-0.11	-0.05
Syracuse	BE	2.22	1.78	95.65	91.74	2.03	1.49
Vanderbilt	SEC	2.22	1.78	68.18	64.73	0.81	0.53
George Mason	CAA	2.17	1.72	75.00	71.59	1.09	0.74
Minnesota	B10	2.17	1.72	68.18	60.02	0.79	0.35
Columbia	Ivy	0.46	0.45	55.00	54.80	0.05	0.04
Albany	AE	0.39	0.36	60.00	60.42	0.08	0.07
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.28	0.33	56.52	57.15	0.04	0.05
New Hampshire	AE	0.34	0.33	35.00	38.58	-0.10	-0.07
Yale	Ivy	0.26	0.31	72.22	63.19	0.11	0.08
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.25	0.30	54.55	56.84	0.02	0.04
Harvard	Ivy	0.25	0.27	90.48	87.91	0.21	0.21
Brown	Ivy	0.20	0.27	27.27	23.80	-0.09	-0.14
Monmouth	NEC	0.28	0.24	28.00	28.91	-0.13	-0.10
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.24	0.24	21.74	24.58	-0.13	-0.12
Hartford	AE	0.23	0.23	17.39	20.97	-0.15	-0.14
Fordham	A10	0.23	0.23	40.91	34.50	-0.04	-0.07
Siena	MAAC	0.26	0.21	45.45	45.55	-0.02	-0.02
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.24	0.21	26.09	28.60	-0.12	-0.09
Bryant	NEC	0.25	0.21	8.33	10.86	-0.20	-0.16
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.24	0.21	56.52	55.95	0.03	0.02
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.19	0.21	44.00	45.89	-0.02	-0.02
Maine	AE	0.19	0.21	50.00	49.73	0.00	-0.00
Manhattan	MAAC	0.28	0.20	68.00	69.07	0.10	0.08
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.19	0.20	13.64	16.35	-0.14	-0.14
Delaware	CAA	0.28	0.20	47.83	50.65	-0.01	0.00
Longwood	ind	0.25	0.18	30.00	27.84	-0.10	-0.08
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.15	0.18	20.00	19.96	-0.09	-0.11
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.19	0.18	33.33	38.38	-0.06	-0.04
Wagner	NEC	0.20	0.18	82.61	84.57	0.13	0.12
Fairfield	MAAC	0.19	0.18	54.55	54.30	0.02	0.02
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.19	0.18	8.70	12.13	-0.16	-0.14
Rider	MAAC	0.25	0.18	37.50	38.52	-0.06	-0.04
Vermont	AE	0.23	0.17	60.00	62.49	0.05	0.04
Hofstra	CAA	0.18	0.17	32.00	35.39	-0.07	-0.05
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.18	0.17	62.50	62.49	0.05	0.04
George Washington	A10	0.19	0.17	34.78	32.08	-0.06	-0.06
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.19	0.15	45.45	45.70	-0.02	-0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.24	0.15	17.39	19.81	-0.16	-0.09
Niagara	MAAC	0.19	0.15	37.50	41.54	-0.05	-0.03
Stony Brook	AE	0.24	0.15	66.67	68.05	0.08	0.05
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.20	0.15	60.00	59.06	0.04	0.03
Iona	MAAC	0.14	0.15	79.17	80.10	0.08	0.09
Villanova	BE	0.18	0.14	45.45	46.08	-0.02	-0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.15	0.13	40.91	43.66	-0.03	-0.02
Elon	SC	0.16	0.12	50.00	47.59	0.00	-0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.10	0.12	50.00	51.73	0.00	0.00
College of Charleston	SC	0.14	0.12	58.33	59.98	0.02	0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.15	0.12	41.67	38.67	-0.03	-0.03
Drexel	CAA	0.20	0.12	79.17	78.10	0.11	0.07
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.20	0.12	70.83	64.42	0.08	0.03
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.12	68.18	63.99	0.02	0.03
Providence	BE	0.14	0.12	56.52	50.27	0.02	0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.15	0.12	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.20	0.12	72.73	64.43	0.09	0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.10	0.12	95.83	92.57	0.09	0.10
Michigan St.	B10	0.09	0.12	76.19	72.91	0.05	0.05
William & Mary	CAA	0.14	0.12	12.50	13.44	-0.10	-0.08
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.12	75.00	73.97	0.02	0.06
Northeastern	CAA	0.15	0.11	47.83	48.56	-0.01	-0.00
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.09	0.11	80.00	78.06	0.06	0.06
Rhode Island	A10	0.18	0.11	20.83	20.60	-0.10	-0.07
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.10	0.09	68.18	69.68	0.04	0.04
Missouri	B12	0.10	0.09	91.30	87.18	0.08	0.07
Tulane	CUSA	0.10	0.09	61.90	58.59	0.02	0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.10	0.09	56.52	53.77	0.01	0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.09	0.09	30.43	26.44	-0.04	-0.04
Long Island	NEC	0.09	0.09	70.83	71.05	0.04	0.04
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.09	0.09	40.91	38.38	-0.02	-0.02
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.09	0.09	36.36	39.72	-0.02	-0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.09	80.95	77.38	0.03	0.05
Hampton	MEAC	0.09	0.09	36.36	38.48	-0.03	-0.02
Liberty	BSth	0.09	0.09	27.27	27.21	-0.04	-0.04
Radford	BSth	0.09	0.09	8.70	13.10	-0.07	-0.06
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.09	68.00	70.03	0.02	0.03
St. John's	BE	0.09	0.09	43.48	40.28	-0.01	-0.02
Pittsburgh	BE	0.14	0.09	60.87	58.16	0.03	0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.09	0.08	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Dayton	A10	0.09	0.08	60.87	60.96	0.02	0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.13	0.08	59.09	56.35	0.02	0.01
Florida	SEC	0.09	0.08	82.61	77.63	0.06	0.05
James Madison	CAA	0.13	0.08	40.00	40.18	-0.03	-0.02
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.08	78.26	72.66	0.03	0.04
Massachusetts	A10	0.09	0.08	73.91	68.58	0.04	0.03
Old Dominion	CAA	0.13	0.08	60.00	58.29	0.03	0.01
Temple	A10	0.09	0.08	77.27	75.06	0.05	0.04
Towson	CAA	0.13	0.08	4.00	5.26	-0.12	-0.07
Xavier	A10	0.09	0.08	65.22	63.74	0.03	0.02
Mercer	ASun	0.05	0.06	70.83	71.64	0.02	0.03
Buffalo	MAC	0.11	0.06	68.42	66.45	0.04	0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.10	0.06	47.37	42.16	-0.01	-0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.06	33.33	35.97	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.05	0.06	33.33	34.47	-0.02	-0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.06	34.78	38.42	-0.02	-0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.05	0.06	26.32	29.71	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.10	0.06	60.87	59.76	0.02	0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.10	0.06	19.05	24.61	-0.06	-0.03
The Citadel	SC	0.10	0.06	9.52	11.44	-0.08	-0.05
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.06	18.18	22.22	-0.03	-0.03
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.06	73.91	68.43	0.02	0.02
West Virginia	BE	0.09	0.06	65.22	65.17	0.03	0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.10	0.06	28.57	34.20	-0.04	-0.02
Notre Dame	BE	0.10	0.06	65.22	62.65	0.03	0.01
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.06	54.55	48.60	0.00	-0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.09	0.06	47.83	43.66	-0.00	-0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.09	0.06	81.82	80.43	0.06	0.03
Davidson	SC	0.09	0.06	76.19	76.76	0.05	0.03
DePaul	BE	0.09	0.06	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.06	75.00	75.78	0.02	0.03
Indiana St.	MVC	0.09	0.06	56.52	54.22	0.01	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.09	0.06	54.17	49.44	0.01	-0.00
Marquette	BE	0.09	0.06	79.17	75.98	0.05	0.03
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.04	0.06	39.13	36.10	-0.01	-0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.00	0.06	52.38	46.68	0.00	-0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.06	61.90	55.14	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.06	40.91	39.56	-0.01	-0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.00	0.06	77.27	77.67	0.00	0.03
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.06	45.45	44.66	-0.00	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.09	0.06	56.52	55.20	0.01	0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.06	45.45	41.20	-0.00	-0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.06	0.03	59.09	50.82	0.01	0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.03	55.00	57.41	0.00	0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.00	0.03	47.62	48.82	-0.00	-0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.06	0.03	19.05	22.37	-0.04	-0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.06	0.03	72.73	71.71	0.03	0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.03	62.50	62.06	0.01	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.03	71.43	69.05	0.02	0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	100.00	94.55	0.05	0.03
South Dakota	Sum	0.05	0.03	26.32	28.83	-0.02	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	47.62	47.18	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.05	0.03	4.35	9.66	-0.05	-0.02
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	56.52	53.10	0.01	0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	42.11	49.81	-0.01	-0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.03	50.00	48.90	0.00	-0.00
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.05	0.03	35.00	35.31	-0.02	-0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.03	50.00	51.53	0.00	0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.03	68.18	69.10	0.02	0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.05	0.03	35.00	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.03	69.57	65.15	0.02	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.03	56.52	48.81	0.01	-0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.03	69.57	65.47	0.02	0.01
Florida International	SB	0.04	0.03	33.33	37.16	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.04	0.03	66.67	69.69	0.01	0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.00	0.03	61.90	67.23	0.00	0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.00	0.03	59.09	57.28	0.00	0.00
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.03	59.09	59.72	0.01	0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.03	30.00	34.15	-0.02	-0.01
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.03	72.73	66.81	0.02	0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.05	0.03	83.33	84.76	0.03	0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.00	0.03	63.64	56.71	0.00	0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.03	78.26	72.34	0.03	0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.05	0.03	34.78	33.46	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.03	61.90	63.52	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.00	0.03	86.96	85.46	0.00	0.02
Oregon	P12	0.05	0.03	69.57	64.53	0.02	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.03	63.64	63.16	0.01	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.03	65.22	60.58	0.01	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	63.74	0.01	0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.03	73.91	75.49	0.02	0.01
Southern California	P12	0.05	0.03	25.00	25.13	-0.02	-0.01
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.03	69.57	68.29	0.02	0.01
Texas	B12	0.04	0.03	60.87	61.37	0.01	0.01
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.03	54.55	56.79	0.00	0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.04	0.03	81.82	76.80	0.03	0.01