live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Dec 20, 2014.


Bucknell

Conference:Pat
Expected RPI:249.1
Current RPI:179
Expected SOS:185
Current SOS:130
Current Record:4-6
Expected Record:11-19
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-4
Current OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC RPI:226
Expected OOC SOS:197



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-12127.20.06%
17-13138.90.24%
16-14157.60.77%
15-15174.52.40%
14-16193.56.55%
13-17213.011.52%
12-18231.717.55%
11-19250.720.12%
10-20268.918.18%
9-21284.512.77%
8-22297.96.99%
7-23309.42.15%
6-24317.30.55%
5-25325.10.14%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Bucknell.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Marist (333.7)MAACH75-72W100%0.0
11-17Michigan (150.1)B10A77-53L0%0.0
11-20Villanova (14.8)BEA72-65L0%0.0
11-22Mount St. Mary's (235.7)NECH69-73L0%0.0
11-24Toledo (92.8)MACA92-65L0%0.0
11-25Maryland Eastern Shore (247.5)MEACN58-55W100%0.0
11-28Penn St. (97.8)B10H80-88L0%0.0
12-1Fairfield (257.7)MAACA66-72W100%0.0
12-6Columbia (85.5)IvyA62-39L0%0.0
12-8Albany (191.5)AEH61-58W100%0.0
12-22Wake Forest (157.9)ACCA0-013%-13.0
12-28Siena (211.1)MAACA0-020%-9.7
12-31American (103.1)PatH0-036%-4.2
1-3Colgate (186.4)PatA0-018%-10.7
1-7Lafayette (95.9)PatH0-033%-5.2
1-10Holy Cross (148.5)PatA0-020%-9.9
1-14Navy (317.2)PatH0-078%9.2
1-17Army (144.3)PatH0-037%-3.8
1-21Loyola MD (286.8)PatA0-048%-0.5
1-24Boston University (202.8)PatA0-026%-7.6
1-28Lehigh (147.2)PatH0-043%-2.2
1-31Colgate (186.4)PatH0-042%-2.3
2-4Lafayette (95.9)PatA0-012%-13.5
2-8Holy Cross (148.5)PatH0-045%-1.5
2-11Navy (317.2)PatA0-053%0.8
2-15Army (144.3)PatA0-015%-12.1
2-18Loyola MD (286.8)PatH0-075%7.8
2-22Boston University (202.8)PatH0-053%0.7
2-25Lehigh (147.2)PatA0-018%-10.5
2-28American (103.1)PatA0-014%-12.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Bucknell's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Bucknell's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Bucknell.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BucknellPat27.3926.3940.9137.18-4.98-6.76
Loyola MDPat0.564.3933.3327.36-0.19-1.99
AmericanPat0.564.3363.6462.400.151.07
ColgatePat0.254.3320.0040.64-0.15-0.81
LehighPat0.514.3244.4452.87-0.060.25
NavyPat0.194.3020.0021.25-0.12-2.47
ArmyPat0.234.2977.7868.400.131.58
Holy CrossPat0.254.2957.1452.660.040.23
Boston UniversityPat0.004.2730.0040.22-0.00-0.83
LafayettePat0.004.2766.6766.910.001.44
ColumbiaIvy5.001.8962.5066.701.250.63
FairfieldMAAC5.001.8744.4438.94-0.56-0.41
SienaMAAC0.251.8633.3348.46-0.08-0.06
AlbanyAE5.001.8444.4456.97-0.560.26
MaristMAAC5.001.8410.0016.71-4.00-1.22
Mount St. Mary'sNEC5.191.8325.0039.10-2.60-0.40
VillanovaBE5.441.78100.0082.405.441.15
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC5.511.7841.6746.10-0.92-0.14
MichiganB105.231.7244.4438.32-0.58-0.40
Penn St.B105.001.7090.9153.824.090.13
Wake ForestACC0.281.7045.4535.96-0.03-0.48
ToledoMAC5.001.6760.0060.241.000.34
BinghamtonAE0.000.320.0011.24-0.00-0.25
QuinnipiacMAAC0.500.3244.4450.60-0.060.00
CanisiusMAAC0.000.2955.5662.150.000.07
St. Francis PANEC0.440.2955.5665.210.050.09
NJITind0.500.2641.6743.68-0.08-0.03
SyracuseACC0.480.2660.0058.120.100.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.2355.5660.980.000.05
PennIvy0.230.2337.5032.63-0.06-0.08
Stony BrookAE0.280.2333.3355.24-0.090.02
CornellIvy0.210.2355.5648.710.02-0.01
RiderMAAC0.000.2350.0053.250.000.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.2336.3648.18-0.00-0.01
UMBCAE0.190.2018.1825.30-0.12-0.10
NiagaraMAAC0.000.2012.5029.51-0.00-0.08
IonaMAAC0.000.2060.0069.200.000.08
HarvardIvy0.000.1885.7172.910.000.08
BrownIvy0.000.1840.0033.80-0.00-0.06
New HampshireAE0.000.1750.0060.410.000.04
ManhattanMAAC0.480.1730.0038.01-0.19-0.04
MonmouthMAAC0.230.1750.0058.370.000.03
DukeACC0.250.17100.0087.090.250.12
IllinoisB100.230.1775.0065.140.110.05
Ohio St.B100.000.1781.8282.250.000.11
YaleIvy0.250.1566.6761.820.080.04
PrincetonIvy0.000.1533.3341.02-0.00-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.280.1537.5039.65-0.07-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.1530.0043.15-0.00-0.02
WagnerNEC0.280.1512.5030.56-0.21-0.06
NortheasternCAA0.250.1470.0060.920.100.03
VMISC0.230.1433.3338.93-0.08-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.230.1430.0039.59-0.09-0.03
Michigan St.B100.000.1466.6767.300.000.05
ProvidenceBE0.250.1475.0057.390.130.02
La SalleA100.230.1454.5552.730.020.01
HartfordAE0.000.1250.0050.620.000.00
BryantNEC0.000.1228.5745.89-0.00-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.1233.3345.04-0.00-0.01
MaineAE0.000.1211.1120.80-0.00-0.07
UMass LowellAE0.000.1250.0050.490.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.280.1254.5559.560.030.02
Arizona St.P120.000.1254.5548.490.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.000.1160.0034.160.00-0.04
Notre DameACC0.280.1191.6777.120.230.06
Saint Joseph'sA100.450.1160.0043.160.09-0.02
ButlerBE0.000.1172.7367.960.000.04
RutgersB100.000.1154.5532.590.00-0.04
MinnesotaB100.000.1180.0067.830.000.04
KentuckySEC0.280.09100.0096.290.280.08
DartmouthIvy0.000.0950.0046.690.00-0.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0970.0051.780.000.00
DelawareCAA0.230.090.008.56-0.23-0.07
USCP120.210.0960.0036.410.04-0.02
VermontAE0.000.0944.4457.69-0.000.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.250.0920.0027.29-0.15-0.04
NorthwesternB100.000.0863.6442.810.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.670.0840.0048.02-0.13-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.250.0875.0066.220.130.03
FordhamA100.400.0828.5727.11-0.17-0.04
MarylandB100.000.0890.9168.230.000.03
Seton HallBE0.280.0890.0067.380.220.03
WisconsinB100.000.0890.9188.840.000.06
HamptonMEAC0.000.0845.4549.62-0.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.230.0863.6456.430.060.01
AkronMAC0.210.0860.0056.150.040.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0836.3646.72-0.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.210.0816.6735.27-0.14-0.02
VCUA100.650.0872.7375.740.290.04
Virginia TechACC0.400.0860.0038.030.08-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.0650.0055.890.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0680.0069.770.000.02
KansasB120.000.0690.0070.680.000.02
West VirginiaB120.000.0690.9170.080.000.02
ArizonaP120.530.06100.0082.630.530.04
Texas TechB120.000.0690.0055.360.000.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0614.2932.16-0.00-0.02
TowsonCAA0.000.0660.0047.170.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0014.00-0.00-0.04
IndianaB100.000.0681.8263.330.000.01
IowaB100.000.0666.6759.420.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0666.6744.720.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.250.060.0017.97-0.25-0.04
Old DominionCUSA0.190.0690.0082.310.150.04
OregonP120.480.0670.0057.440.190.01
PurdueB100.000.0666.6759.370.000.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0677.7865.110.000.02
CampbellBSth0.000.0625.0043.93-0.00-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0663.6455.660.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0672.7367.520.000.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0616.6737.21-0.00-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.060.008.60-0.00-0.05
Boston CollegeACC0.230.0566.6742.600.08-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0525.0037.03-0.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0585.7170.530.000.02
CreightonBE0.000.0575.0052.140.000.00
DuquesneA100.210.0537.5034.06-0.05-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.0570.0059.220.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0580.0053.260.000.00
HowardMEAC0.000.0530.0043.74-0.00-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0575.0058.160.000.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0560.0048.980.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0575.0061.480.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0542.8633.27-0.00-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0527.2735.36-0.00-0.02
St. John'sBE0.000.0588.8965.170.000.02
VirginiaACC0.000.05100.0086.080.000.04
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0555.5652.610.000.00
XavierBE0.000.0572.7367.590.000.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0350.0058.070.000.00
HofstraCAA0.280.0370.0076.180.110.02
MassachusettsA100.000.0354.5552.490.000.00
RadfordBSth0.000.0355.5658.650.000.00
SMUAmer0.250.0372.7375.710.110.01
UNLVMWC0.250.0366.6749.560.08-0.00
BelmontOVC0.250.0363.6464.880.070.01
ElonCAA0.000.0344.4451.07-0.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.230.0377.7870.160.130.01
Fresno St.MWC0.230.0327.2729.17-0.10-0.01
HawaiiBW0.230.0366.6754.470.080.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.250.0355.5673.740.030.01
South DakotaSum0.250.0327.2738.30-0.11-0.01
WoffordSC0.250.0377.7875.550.140.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0380.0072.200.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.230.0342.8648.87-0.03-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0318.1830.76-0.00-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0375.0067.140.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0377.7870.890.000.01
CharlotteCUSA0.210.0354.5564.070.020.01
Chicago St.WAC0.230.030.0011.59-0.23-0.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0360.0043.890.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.230.0333.3349.35-0.08-0.00
DrexelCAA0.210.0322.2235.90-0.12-0.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0363.6465.220.000.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0011.94-0.00-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0354.5541.980.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.210.0366.6765.500.070.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0084.930.000.02
MarshallCUSA0.210.0322.2236.53-0.12-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.230.0320.0044.37-0.14-0.00
Miami FLACC0.000.0381.8266.010.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0330.0028.65-0.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0372.7374.850.000.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.190.030.0023.69-0.19-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.190.0350.0071.260.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.230.0336.3648.28-0.06-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0333.3343.14-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.230.0327.2732.45-0.10-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0342.8637.71-0.00-0.01
RichmondA100.000.0360.0057.700.000.00
SamfordSC0.000.0333.3330.28-0.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0318.1827.33-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0366.6764.770.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0388.8955.860.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0314.2944.44-0.00-0.00