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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Bucknell

Conference:Pat
Expected RPI:167.0
Current RPI:167
Expected SOS:214
Current SOS:214
Current Record:16-14
Expected Record:16-14
Current Conf Record:11-8
Expected Conf Record:11-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-7
Current OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:163
Expected OOC SOS:174



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-14167.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Bucknell.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Stanford (41.0)P12A72-68L0%0.0
11-13Penn St. (114.0)B10A80-90W100%0.0
11-16St. Francis PA (298.0)NECH72-50W100%0.0
11-19St. John's (67.0)BEA67-63L0%0.0
11-23Albany (185.0)AEA64-77W100%0.0
11-26Mount St. Mary's (188.0)NECA69-64L0%0.0
11-30Princeton (122.0)IvyH53-66L0%0.0
12-4Kent St. (213.0)MACA59-66W100%0.0
12-7Columbia (130.0)IvyH57-52W100%0.0
12-20Marist (250.0)MAACA69-51L0%0.0
12-28Fairfield (289.0)MAACH64-73L0%0.0
1-2American (118.0)PatH57-67L0%0.0
1-5Colgate (256.0)PatH68-57W100%0.0
1-8Lafayette (258.0)PatA86-96W100%0.0
1-11Holy Cross (127.0)PatH61-57W100%0.0
1-15Navy (321.0)PatA62-61L0%0.0
1-19Army (235.0)PatA74-67L0%0.0
1-22Loyola MD (274.0)PatH70-60W100%0.0
1-25Boston University (84.0)PatH61-64L0%0.0
1-29Lehigh (236.0)PatA66-63L0%0.0
2-1Colgate (256.0)PatA68-79W100%0.0
2-5Lafayette (258.0)PatH58-66L0%0.0
2-9Holy Cross (127.0)PatA66-50L0%0.0
2-12Navy (321.0)PatH78-57W100%0.0
2-15Army (235.0)PatH73-61W100%0.0
2-19Loyola MD (274.0)PatA53-55W100%0.0
2-23Boston University (84.0)PatA53-63W100%0.0
2-26Lehigh (236.0)PatH65-61W100%0.0
3-1American (118.0)PatA51-56W100%0.0
3-5Army (235.0)PatH71-72L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Bucknell's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Bucknell's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Bucknell.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BucknellPat26.4126.4154.7954.792.532.53
ArmyPat5.945.9444.4444.44-0.66-0.66
AmericanPat4.504.5063.3363.331.201.20
Boston UniversityPat4.464.4671.8871.881.951.95
ColgatePat4.444.4442.8642.86-0.63-0.63
Holy CrossPat4.414.4160.0060.000.880.88
LafayettePat4.394.3932.1432.14-1.57-1.57
Loyola MDPat4.364.3637.0437.04-1.13-1.13
LehighPat4.344.3443.3343.33-0.58-0.58
NavyPat4.334.3325.9325.93-2.08-2.08
ColumbiaIvy1.951.9562.0762.070.470.47
St. Francis PANEC1.941.9433.3333.33-0.65-0.65
Mount St. Mary'sNEC1.861.8648.3948.39-0.06-0.06
PrincetonIvy1.831.8369.2369.230.700.70
FairfieldMAAC1.831.8319.3519.35-1.12-1.12
AlbanyAE1.771.7758.0658.060.290.29
Penn St.B101.751.7548.3948.39-0.06-0.06
St. John'sBE1.721.7261.2961.290.390.39
MaristMAAC1.721.7236.6736.67-0.46-0.46
Kent St.MAC1.701.7050.0050.000.000.00
StanfordP121.671.6762.5062.500.420.42
UMBCAE0.380.3827.5927.59-0.17-0.17
St. Francis NYNEC0.270.2754.8454.840.030.03
NJITind0.270.2736.0036.00-0.08-0.08
Sacred HeartNEC0.260.2616.1316.13-0.18-0.18
CornellIvy0.260.263.703.70-0.24-0.24
BinghamtonAE0.250.2523.3323.33-0.13-0.13
WagnerNEC0.240.2460.0060.000.050.05
QuinnipiacMAAC0.230.2364.5264.520.070.07
PennIvy0.230.2328.5728.57-0.10-0.10
HarvardIvy0.220.2286.2186.210.160.16
BryantNEC0.220.2254.8454.840.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.210.2161.7661.760.050.05
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.210.2145.1645.16-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.210.2131.0331.03-0.08-0.08
YaleIvy0.200.2051.8551.850.010.01
BrownIvy0.200.2051.8551.850.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.190.1968.7568.750.070.07
RiderMAAC0.180.1845.1645.16-0.02-0.02
HartfordAE0.180.1851.5251.520.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.160.1631.0331.03-0.06-0.06
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.160.1617.8617.86-0.11-0.11
FordhamA100.160.1632.2632.26-0.06-0.06
NiagaraMAAC0.160.1621.2121.21-0.09-0.09
CanisiusMAAC0.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
MonmouthMAAC0.160.1634.3834.38-0.05-0.05
DartmouthIvy0.140.1438.4638.46-0.03-0.03
The CitadelSC0.140.1413.7913.79-0.10-0.10
MaineAE0.140.1417.8617.86-0.09-0.09
Seton HallBE0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
VillanovaBE0.130.1387.5087.500.100.10
ManhattanMAAC0.130.1378.1278.120.080.08
Saint Joseph'sA100.130.1372.7372.730.060.06
SienaMAAC0.130.1346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.130.1376.4776.470.070.07
ProvidenceBE0.130.1367.6567.650.050.05
MinnesotaB100.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
PittsburghACC0.130.1373.5373.530.060.06
UMass LowellAE0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
RutgersAmer0.110.1134.3834.38-0.04-0.04
George MasonA100.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
Michigan St.B100.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
IonaMAAC0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
New HampshireAE0.100.1017.2417.24-0.07-0.07
Ohio St.B100.100.1073.5373.530.050.05
MichiganB100.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
West VirginiaB120.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.080.0814.8114.81-0.06-0.06
Notre DameACC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.080.0884.3884.380.060.06
Miami OHMAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
VermontAE0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
HoustonAmer0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
MarylandACC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Arizona St.P120.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
UCLAP120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Washington St.P120.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
VirginiaACC0.060.0682.3582.350.040.04
TulaneCUSA0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
ElonSC0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
AkronMAC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.050.0564.2964.290.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
CreightonBE0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
DePaulBE0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
IllinoisB100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
IndianaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
MarquetteBE0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
NebraskaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
PurdueB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
WisconsinB100.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
XavierBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
BYUWCC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
NorthwesternB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
CaliforniaP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
USCP120.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
WashingtonP120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
UC IrvineBW0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
IdahoWAC0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
DaytonA100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
DrexelCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.030.0377.7877.780.010.01
IowaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
La SalleA100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleAmer0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
RichmondA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Texas TechB120.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
OregonP120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
UC DavisBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.030.0363.3363.330.010.01