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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Howard

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:323.0
Current RPI:323
Expected SOS:288
Current SOS:288
Current Record:6-25
Expected Record:6-25
Current Conf Record:6-12
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-15
Current OOC Record:0-13
Expected OOC Record:0-13
Expected OOC RPI:337
Expected OOC SOS:180



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
6-25323.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Howard.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Old Dominion (170.0)CUSAA77-57L0%0.0
11-15Harvard (46.0)IvyA76-44L0%0.0
11-17Pittsburgh (39.0)ACCA84-52L0%0.0
11-21Houston (143.0)AmerA75-62L0%0.0
11-25South Dakota St. (138.0)SumA77-65L0%0.0
11-26Texas Southern (239.0)SWACN54-63L0%0.0
11-30William & Mary (119.0)CAAH79-84L0%0.0
12-4American (118.0)PatA76-53L0%0.0
12-7Morgan St. (225.0)MEACA87-58L0%0.0
12-11UCF (220.0)AmerA79-64L0%0.0
12-14Fordham (226.0)A10A79-60L0%0.0
12-15Delaware St. (329.0)MEACN64-62W100%0.0
12-17Liberty (311.0)BSthA77-59L0%0.0
12-29USC (176.0)P12A82-60L0%0.0
1-4College of Charleston (242.0)CAAA60-50L0%0.0
1-13Savannah St. (273.0)MEACH54-56L0%0.0
1-18Maryland Eastern Shore (347.0)MEACH88-55W100%0.0
1-25Florida A&M (295.0)MEACA62-69W100%0.0
1-27Bethune Cookman (343.0)MEACA58-47L0%0.0
2-1North Carolina Central (99.0)MEACH65-79L0%0.0
2-3North Carolina A&T (336.0)MEACH68-60W100%0.0
2-8Hampton (204.0)MEACA63-47L0%0.0
2-10Norfolk St. (227.0)MEACA75-49L0%0.0
2-15Maryland Eastern Shore (347.0)MEACA87-73L0%0.0
2-22Hampton (204.0)MEACH78-81L0%0.0
2-24Norfolk St. (227.0)MEACH60-66L0%0.0
3-1Delaware St. (329.0)MEACA53-55W100%0.0
3-3Coppin St. (261.0)MEACA86-69L0%0.0
3-6Morgan St. (225.0)MEACH66-68L0%0.0
3-11North Carolina A&T (336.0)MEACN53-47W100%0.0
3-12North Carolina Central (99.0)MEACN92-46L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Howard's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Howard's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Howard.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
HowardMEAC26.2026.2022.5622.56-14.38-14.38
Norfolk St.MEAC3.963.9650.0050.000.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC3.933.9344.8344.83-0.41-0.41
HamptonMEAC3.933.9357.1457.140.560.56
North Carolina CentralMEAC3.923.9282.7682.762.572.57
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC3.903.9015.3815.38-2.70-2.70
Delaware St.MEAC3.823.8226.9226.92-1.76-1.76
North Carolina A&TMEAC3.743.7427.5927.59-1.68-1.68
Coppin St.MEAC2.452.4533.3333.33-0.82-0.82
Florida A&MMEAC2.282.2841.3841.38-0.39-0.39
Bethune CookmanMEAC2.262.2613.7913.79-1.63-1.63
Savannah St.MEAC2.252.2534.4834.48-0.70-0.70
William & MaryCAA1.801.8060.0060.000.360.36
Old DominionCUSA1.721.7246.8846.88-0.11-0.11
College of CharlestonCAA1.721.7240.0040.00-0.34-0.34
LibertyBSth1.691.6925.0025.00-0.85-0.85
UCFAmer1.691.6935.7135.71-0.48-0.48
AmericanPat1.671.6761.2961.290.380.38
HoustonAmer1.671.6750.0050.000.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC1.671.6754.8454.840.160.16
FordhamA101.641.6430.0030.00-0.66-0.66
PittsburghACC1.641.6472.7372.730.750.75
HarvardIvy1.641.6485.7185.711.171.17
South Dakota St.Sum1.611.6155.5655.560.180.18
USCP121.611.6130.0030.00-0.65-0.65
South Carolina St.MEAC0.700.7025.0025.00-0.35-0.35
NJITind0.270.2736.0036.00-0.08-0.08
DelawareCAA0.270.2773.5373.530.130.13
TowsonCAA0.210.2167.7467.740.070.07
CincinnatiAmer0.210.2181.8281.820.130.13
Miami FLACC0.180.1851.5251.520.010.01
VirginiaACC0.180.1882.3582.350.120.12
LehighPat0.180.1843.7543.75-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.170.1732.1432.14-0.06-0.06
RadfordBSth0.160.1660.0060.000.030.03
WinthropBSth0.160.1656.6756.670.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.160.1637.5037.50-0.04-0.04
James MadisonCAA0.160.1635.4835.48-0.05-0.05
TempleAmer0.160.1629.0329.03-0.07-0.07
RutgersAmer0.160.1634.3834.38-0.05-0.05
Boston UniversityPat0.160.1670.5970.590.060.06
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.160.1623.3323.33-0.08-0.08
LouisvilleAmer0.150.1585.2985.290.110.11
East CarolinaCUSA0.150.1544.8344.83-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.150.1563.6463.640.040.04
MarylandACC0.150.1551.6151.610.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.140.1460.0060.000.030.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
Oregon St.P120.140.1451.6151.610.000.00
DaytonA100.140.1469.7069.700.050.05
High PointBSth0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.130.1348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.130.1376.4776.470.070.07
NortheasternCAA0.130.1334.3834.38-0.04-0.04
SMUAmer0.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
RichmondA100.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.110.1125.9325.93-0.05-0.05
PrincetonIvy0.110.1170.3770.370.040.04
George WashingtonA100.110.1175.0075.000.050.05
IUPUISum0.110.1110.3410.34-0.09-0.09
UMBCAE0.110.1127.5927.59-0.05-0.05
NavyPat0.110.1127.5927.59-0.05-0.05
LongwoodBSth0.110.1114.2914.29-0.08-0.08
UNC AshevilleBSth0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
ColoradoP120.110.1167.6567.650.040.04
ClemsonACC0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
MemphisAmer0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.1037.9337.93-0.03-0.03
DrexelCAA0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
HofstraCAA0.100.1030.3030.30-0.04-0.04
OregonP120.100.1071.8871.880.050.05
Rhode IslandA100.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
FIUCUSA0.100.1046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.100.1030.3030.30-0.04-0.04
CharlotteCUSA0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
Saint LouisA100.100.1080.6580.650.060.06
Texas TechB120.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
ColgatePat0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.100.1061.7661.760.020.02
IPFWSum0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
DenverSum0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
VMIBSth0.080.0855.5655.560.010.01
StetsonASun0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Virginia TechACC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
San DiegoWCC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.080.0851.8551.850.000.00
North FloridaASun0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
FurmanSC0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
UtahP120.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
La SalleA100.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.080.08100.00100.000.080.08
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Ohio St.B100.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
Cal St. FullertonBW0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
Georgia SouthernSC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.0814.8114.81-0.05-0.05
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0732.1432.14-0.03-0.03
SyracuseACC0.070.0784.3884.380.050.05
Wake ForestACC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.060.0664.2964.290.020.02
IowaB100.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0678.5778.570.030.03
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
PurdueB100.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
CornellIvy0.060.063.703.70-0.05-0.05
DartmouthIvy0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
YaleIvy0.060.0651.8551.850.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0535.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
AkronMAC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.04-0.04
ToledoMAC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Appalachian St.SC0.050.0519.2319.23-0.03-0.03
Arizona St.P120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
MississippiSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
OhioMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
UC IrvineBW0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
UCLAP120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
UABCUSA0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
West VirginiaB120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
DuquesneA100.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
TulsaCUSA0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
UTSACUSA0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
BelmontOVC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
MontanaBSky0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Green BayHorz0.030.0377.7877.780.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
VermontAE0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0394.1294.120.020.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
ArizonaP120.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
DavidsonSC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
MichiganB100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
SienaMAAC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
St. John'sBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
The CitadelSC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
VillanovaBE0.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
WagnerNEC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
WashingtonP120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Washington St.P120.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
XavierBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.020.0259.2659.260.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
TulaneCUSA0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
AlbanyAE0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00