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Through games of Dec 17, 2014.


Howard

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:273.4
Current RPI:306
Expected SOS:344
Current SOS:323
Current Record:3-7
Expected Record:12-16
Current Conf Record:1-1
Expected Conf Record:9-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-8
Current OOC Record:2-6
Expected OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC RPI:281
Expected OOC SOS:296



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-9158.50.04%
18-10165.10.28%
17-11182.01.00%
16-12203.43.61%
15-13223.38.63%
14-14244.814.33%
13-15265.119.31%
12-16283.820.03%
11-17299.616.04%
10-18312.89.53%
9-19322.35.02%
8-20330.61.60%
7-21337.90.51%
6-22343.00.05%
5-23343.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Howard.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Miami FL (22.2)ACCA84-49L0%0.0
11-18William & Mary (104.7)CAAA56-49L0%0.0
11-20Radford (196.0)BSthA61-52L0%0.0
11-25UMBC (335.5)AEA54-68W100%0.0
12-2Duquesne (254.7)A10A81-63L0%0.0
12-6North Carolina A&T (335.4)MEACH54-47W100%0.0
12-7North Carolina Central (149.1)MEACN39-61L0%0.0
12-13Richmond (88.0)A10A54-41L0%0.0
12-15IUPUI (293.7)SumH57-47W100%0.0
12-17Pepperdine (131.9)WCCA53-45L0%0.0
12-23South Alabama (249.5)SBA0-025%-7.9
12-28Fordham (260.8)A10A0-034%-4.7
1-8Cornell (180.9)IvyA0-017%-11.1
1-10Coppin St. (335.2)MEACH0-090%15.2
1-12Delaware St. (247.4)MEACH0-066%4.9
1-24Florida A&M (348.9)MEACA0-079%9.4
1-26Bethune Cookman (333.7)MEACA0-052%0.5
1-31Morgan St. (298.8)MEACH0-068%5.5
2-2Maryland Eastern Shore (259.2)MEACH0-065%4.6
2-7Norfolk St. (178.6)MEACA0-021%-9.4
2-9Hampton (247.7)MEACA0-029%-6.4
2-14Coppin St. (335.2)MEACA0-071%6.5
2-16Maryland Eastern Shore (259.2)MEACA0-036%-4.2
2-21Savannah St. (320.9)MEACA0-061%3.2
2-23South Carolina St. (309.4)MEACA0-054%1.1
2-28Hampton (247.7)MEACH0-058%2.4
3-2Norfolk St. (178.6)MEACH0-048%-0.7
3-4NJIT (236.7)indH0-058%2.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Howard's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Howard's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Howard.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
HowardMEAC27.9126.1136.1150.51-7.750.27
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.764.2341.6744.02-0.13-0.51
HamptonMEAC0.004.1640.0049.70-0.00-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.004.1650.0055.690.000.47
Coppin St.MEAC0.004.120.0014.33-0.00-2.94
Delaware St.MEAC0.002.5040.0047.35-0.00-0.13
Morgan St.MEAC0.002.4920.0037.37-0.00-0.63
South Carolina St.MEAC0.002.4320.0028.65-0.00-1.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC5.312.410.0024.06-5.31-1.25
Savannah St.MEAC0.252.4018.1827.57-0.16-1.08
North Carolina CentralMEAC5.002.4037.5069.08-1.250.92
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.002.3820.0033.50-0.00-0.78
Florida A&MMEAC0.002.380.0011.96-0.00-1.81
NJITind0.362.0336.3640.75-0.10-0.38
RichmondA105.672.0142.8655.61-0.810.23
South AlabamaSB0.561.940.0036.34-0.56-0.53
DuquesneA105.001.9416.6728.71-3.33-0.83
FordhamA100.001.9428.5726.89-0.00-0.89
IUPUISum5.001.9122.2227.09-2.78-0.88
UMBCAE5.001.8811.1121.80-3.89-1.06
RadfordBSth5.541.8842.8654.31-0.790.16
PepperdineWCC5.001.8871.4357.372.140.28
Miami FLACC5.001.8588.8974.953.890.92
CornellIvy0.001.8255.5647.370.00-0.10
William & MaryCAA5.311.8150.0054.890.000.18
UMass LowellAE0.000.2355.5654.600.000.02
TowsonCAA0.250.2266.6751.310.080.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.2175.0064.990.000.06
HofstraCAA0.000.1977.7878.200.000.11
James MadisonCAA0.620.1970.0060.810.250.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.250.1942.8655.67-0.040.02
George WashingtonA100.250.1866.6766.690.080.06
VCUA100.000.1870.0071.520.000.08
Virginia TechACC0.310.1855.5638.100.03-0.04
DaytonA100.000.1677.7869.890.000.06
Northern ArizonaBSky0.280.1640.0050.48-0.060.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.1662.5073.580.000.07
Saint LouisA100.230.1660.0034.010.05-0.05
IllinoisB100.250.1572.7365.950.110.05
USC UpstateASun0.450.1560.0064.580.090.04
DavidsonA100.000.1587.5077.040.000.08
George MasonA100.000.1525.0025.95-0.00-0.07
Old DominionCUSA0.540.1588.8981.120.420.09
AlbanyAE0.000.1333.3348.85-0.00-0.00
MaineAE0.000.1311.1121.17-0.00-0.08
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.1322.2240.77-0.00-0.02
WinthropBSth0.000.1328.5747.18-0.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1350.0044.640.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.250.1325.0037.61-0.13-0.03
High PointBSth0.670.1362.5056.250.170.02
St. Francis PANEC0.360.1350.0062.870.000.03
La SalleA100.000.1250.0049.770.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.000.1260.0055.530.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1255.5640.200.00-0.02
Penn St.B100.360.1290.9154.060.290.01
IowaB100.560.1272.7362.590.260.03
AkronMAC0.500.1260.0056.780.100.02
DenverSum0.000.1250.0053.980.000.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.1242.8632.44-0.00-0.04
PrincetonIvy0.000.1227.2737.77-0.00-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.120.0016.94-0.00-0.08
VirginiaACC0.000.12100.0085.770.000.09
SyracuseACC0.000.1266.6757.600.000.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1255.5656.480.000.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.1237.5038.03-0.00-0.03
MichiganB100.000.1055.5642.690.00-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.250.1022.2231.12-0.14-0.04
DartmouthIvy0.000.1044.4447.44-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.000.1070.0064.820.000.03
DelawareCAA0.000.100.008.74-0.00-0.08
ElonCAA0.000.1037.5048.14-0.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.1066.6770.610.000.04
San FranciscoWCC0.000.1044.4449.01-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.280.0970.0071.470.110.04
NortheasternCAA0.000.0966.6757.570.000.01
LongwoodBSth0.250.0920.0026.68-0.15-0.04
OregonP120.000.0966.6759.200.000.02
San DiegoWCC0.000.0954.5557.610.000.01
SienaMAAC0.000.0937.5051.47-0.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.250.0975.0070.220.130.04
LibertyBSth0.000.0925.0035.05-0.00-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0971.4357.420.000.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0960.0061.810.000.02
VillanovaBE0.000.09100.0082.310.000.06
Western IllinoisSum0.360.0937.5031.79-0.09-0.03
Notre DameACC0.000.0990.9171.750.000.04
BinghamtonAE0.000.090.0012.01-0.00-0.07
PennIvy0.000.0937.5032.89-0.00-0.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0936.3647.27-0.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.0911.1128.93-0.00-0.04
Georgia St.SB0.250.0962.5071.700.060.04
LouisvilleACC0.000.09100.0085.210.000.06
CharlotteCUSA0.500.0955.5665.660.060.03
DetroitHorz0.000.0944.4449.46-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0962.5066.710.000.03
Wake ForestACC0.000.0950.0038.030.00-0.02
St. John'sBE0.000.0787.5064.520.000.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0750.0053.700.000.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0755.5647.640.00-0.00
MarylandB100.280.0690.9167.700.230.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.230.0610.0018.04-0.18-0.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.360.0616.6719.82-0.24-0.04
BYUWCC0.000.0666.6767.780.000.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0642.8650.31-0.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0657.1456.210.000.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0671.4363.540.000.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0637.5050.07-0.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.000.0690.0091.070.000.05
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0625.0023.97-0.00-0.03
PacificWCC0.000.0642.8638.32-0.00-0.01
PortlandWCC0.000.0666.6748.960.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.060.008.71-0.00-0.05
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0650.0041.530.00-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0614.2945.52-0.00-0.01
Arizona St.P120.310.0660.0054.270.060.01
CampbellBSth0.000.0625.0044.80-0.00-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0644.4456.70-0.000.01
FloridaSEC0.610.0660.0064.870.120.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.310.0620.0028.69-0.19-0.03
HoustonAmer0.000.0671.4348.780.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0622.2237.72-0.00-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0028.64-0.00-0.03
AmericanPat0.000.0660.0065.060.000.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0642.8638.50-0.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0633.3345.72-0.00-0.01
BaylorB120.000.0690.0073.960.000.03
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0633.3341.58-0.00-0.01
BrownIvy0.000.0640.0033.85-0.00-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0662.5065.190.000.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0662.5059.460.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0636.3644.37-0.00-0.01
HartfordAE0.000.0650.0050.820.000.00
HarvardIvy0.000.0685.7172.940.000.03
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0610.0018.36-0.00-0.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0642.8652.07-0.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0633.3345.26-0.00-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.250.0633.3327.49-0.08-0.03
New HampshireAE0.000.0657.1464.510.000.02
North FloridaASun0.000.0644.4456.92-0.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0650.0033.280.00-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0662.5064.360.000.02
Stony BrookAE0.000.0637.5055.05-0.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0611.1144.96-0.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0650.0050.360.000.00
TroySB0.000.0633.3340.58-0.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0655.5654.760.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0675.0060.600.000.01
VermontAE0.000.0650.0059.880.000.01
PittsburghACC0.360.0666.6752.270.120.00
Ball St.MAC0.250.0628.5736.94-0.11-0.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0666.6745.400.00-0.01
IPFWSum0.000.0657.1456.730.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0644.4455.33-0.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0644.4444.76-0.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.0620.0039.57-0.00-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0657.1454.700.000.01
Northern IowaMVC0.310.0690.0078.120.250.03
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0666.6741.940.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.000.0640.0036.15-0.00-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0650.0037.400.00-0.01
NavyPat0.000.0620.0021.41-0.00-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.310.0681.8264.060.200.02
Holy CrossPat0.000.0457.1452.640.000.00
LafayettePat0.000.0475.0069.390.000.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0425.0040.49-0.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.280.0377.7869.420.150.01
CreightonBE0.280.0372.7351.600.130.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0371.4364.070.000.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.280.0333.3339.12-0.09-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0310.0041.11-0.00-0.01
MemphisAmer0.280.0355.5660.050.030.01
RiceCUSA0.360.0316.6725.04-0.24-0.02
WoffordSC0.360.0377.7876.160.200.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.310.0336.3638.88-0.09-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0337.5048.87-0.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.310.0330.0029.48-0.12-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.310.0366.6759.320.100.01
IndianaB100.000.0380.0057.470.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0355.5638.460.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0360.0037.340.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.0377.7862.380.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0325.0038.24-0.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.360.0330.0039.75-0.14-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.310.030.007.87-0.31-0.03
TCUB120.310.03100.0066.280.310.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.310.0325.0028.71-0.16-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0337.5041.33-0.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.000.0388.8955.730.000.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0387.5054.920.000.00
WashingtonP120.000.03100.0072.030.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0377.7871.830.000.01
BradleyMVC0.230.0333.3332.03-0.08-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0375.0069.340.000.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0311.1129.64-0.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0350.0061.650.000.01
ColgatePat0.000.0320.0042.80-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0337.5038.59-0.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0350.0054.660.000.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0366.6754.090.000.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0366.6772.380.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0336.3633.75-0.00-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0371.4361.390.000.01
LehighPat0.000.0342.8652.31-0.000.00
MercerSC0.000.0337.5041.84-0.00-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0344.4444.99-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.250.0377.7864.890.140.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0336.3664.92-0.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0342.8636.42-0.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0328.5756.75-0.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.230.0325.0033.13-0.11-0.01
Ohio St.B100.230.0390.0084.620.180.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0350.0032.540.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.000.0360.0053.790.000.00
The CitadelSC0.000.0316.6730.49-0.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.0355.5635.040.00-0.01
WyomingMWC0.000.0377.7873.090.000.01
DrakeMVC0.250.0320.0020.14-0.15-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.250.0333.3332.85-0.08-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.250.0333.3334.56-0.08-0.01
PurdueB100.250.0372.7363.690.110.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0345.4552.00-0.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.000.0337.5046.91-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.0342.8643.73-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.250.0380.0071.020.150.01
DukeACC0.000.03100.0087.440.000.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.0377.7851.090.000.00
Green BayHorz0.250.0375.0078.710.130.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.0372.7352.880.000.00