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Through games of Nov 20, 2014.


Howard

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:318.2
Current RPI:308
Expected SOS:347
Current SOS:258
Current Record:0-3
Expected Record:9-19
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-12
Current OOC Record:0-3
Expected OOC Record:2-10
Expected OOC RPI:340
Expected OOC SOS:314



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-11175.80.04%
16-12203.60.20%
15-13222.90.63%
14-14244.61.79%
13-15263.94.03%
12-16281.98.20%
11-17299.512.01%
10-18314.816.52%
9-19326.518.18%
8-20335.516.03%
7-21341.911.72%
6-22346.06.51%
5-23348.52.87%
4-24350.00.92%
3-25350.60.33%
2-26350.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Howard.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Miami FL (29.5)ACCA84-49L0%0.0
11-18William & Mary (181.9)CAAA56-49L0%0.0
11-20Radford (239.6)BSthA61-52L0%0.0
11-25UMBC (299.3)AEA0-035%-4.7
12-2Duquesne (164.6)A10A0-010%-15.5
12-6North Carolina A&T (330.0)MEACH0-071%6.8
12-7North Carolina Central (168.2)MEACN0-016%-11.8
12-13Richmond (83.0)A10A0-04%-20.4
12-15IUPUI (280.1)SumH0-053%1.0
12-17Pepperdine (148.9)WCCA0-09%-16.1
12-23South Alabama (252.8)SBA0-025%-8.3
12-28Fordham (222.2)A10A0-016%-11.9
1-8Cornell (258.9)IvyA0-025%-8.0
1-10Coppin St. (287.5)MEACH0-061%3.5
1-12Delaware St. (253.0)MEACH0-049%-0.2
1-24Florida A&M (347.1)MEACA0-060%2.9
1-26Bethune Cookman (294.8)MEACA0-030%-6.2
1-31Morgan St. (272.8)MEACH0-049%-0.3
2-2Maryland Eastern Shore (323.2)MEACH0-069%5.9
2-7Norfolk St. (253.9)MEACA0-024%-8.4
2-9Hampton (178.6)MEACA0-013%-13.7
2-14Coppin St. (287.5)MEACA0-038%-3.7
2-16Maryland Eastern Shore (323.2)MEACA0-046%-1.3
2-21Savannah St. (290.9)MEACA0-037%-3.9
2-23South Carolina St. (311.9)MEACA0-042%-2.5
2-28Hampton (178.6)MEACH0-029%-6.5
3-2Norfolk St. (253.9)MEACH0-046%-1.2
3-4NJIT (296.0)indH0-061%3.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Howard's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Howard's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Howard.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
HowardMEAC34.7226.140.0037.34-34.72-6.62
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.004.2425.0029.36-0.00-1.75
HamptonMEAC0.004.170.0062.51-0.001.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.004.170.0042.91-0.00-0.59
Coppin St.MEAC0.004.140.0027.36-0.00-1.87
Delaware St.MEAC0.002.5150.0043.250.00-0.34
Morgan St.MEAC0.002.510.0037.89-0.00-0.61
South Carolina St.MEAC0.002.440.0027.65-0.00-1.09
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.002.420.0024.09-0.00-1.25
Savannah St.MEAC0.002.4233.3333.04-0.00-0.82
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.002.410.0068.99-0.000.92
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.002.390.0046.32-0.00-0.18
Florida A&MMEAC0.002.390.0018.60-0.00-1.50
NJITind0.002.0333.3329.51-0.00-0.83
RichmondA102.782.0150.0060.070.000.40
South AlabamaSB0.001.940.0037.75-0.00-0.48
DuquesneA100.001.940.0050.26-0.000.01
FordhamA100.001.940.0035.09-0.00-0.58
IUPUISum0.001.9133.3328.20-0.00-0.83
UMBCAE0.001.880.0034.51-0.00-0.58
RadfordBSth16.671.880.0041.43-16.67-0.32
PepperdineWCC0.001.88100.0049.400.00-0.02
Miami FLACC16.671.85100.0067.1816.670.64
CornellIvy0.001.8250.0039.510.00-0.38
William & MaryCAA16.671.810.0044.29-16.67-0.21
UMass LowellAE0.000.2333.3331.05-0.00-0.09
TowsonCAA0.000.2250.0045.250.00-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.2150.0050.330.000.00
HofstraCAA0.000.1950.0061.290.000.04
James MadisonCAA2.780.1966.6743.460.93-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.19100.0062.600.000.05
Virginia TechACC0.000.18100.0043.270.00-0.02
George WashingtonA100.000.18100.0071.490.000.08
VCUA100.000.18100.0076.230.000.09
IllinoisB100.000.16100.0060.930.000.03
USC UpstateASun0.000.16100.0050.460.000.00
DaytonA100.000.16100.0072.390.000.07
Saint LouisA100.000.16100.0068.930.000.06
Rhode IslandA100.000.16100.0053.320.000.01
George MasonA100.000.1533.3324.67-0.00-0.08
Old DominionCUSA0.000.15100.0070.930.000.06
DavidsonA100.000.15100.0049.500.00-0.00
AlbanyAE0.000.1350.0064.020.000.04
MaineAE0.000.130.0022.72-0.00-0.07
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.130.0055.09-0.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.1333.3350.49-0.000.00
WinthropBSth0.000.1350.0056.020.000.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1333.3357.17-0.000.02
High PointBSth0.000.13100.0057.950.000.02
SyracuseACC0.000.1366.6770.630.000.05
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.1333.3351.93-0.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.130.0029.61-0.00-0.05
St. Francis PANEC0.000.130.0048.12-0.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.000.13100.0066.870.000.04
IowaB100.000.1366.6773.790.000.06
Appalachian St.SB0.000.130.0015.48-0.00-0.09
La SalleA100.000.12100.0056.340.000.02
MassachusettsA100.000.12100.0063.480.000.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1233.3333.86-0.00-0.04
DenverSum0.000.1250.0062.850.000.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.120.0032.90-0.00-0.04
DartmouthIvy0.000.100.0033.87-0.00-0.03
YaleIvy0.000.100.0054.91-0.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.10100.0067.660.000.04
MichiganB100.000.10100.0067.240.000.03
SienaMAAC0.000.1033.3359.54-0.000.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.100.0046.79-0.00-0.01
DelawareCAA0.000.100.0042.76-0.00-0.01
DrexelCAA2.780.100.0038.06-2.78-0.02
ElonCAA0.000.1050.0038.380.00-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.000.100.0017.64-0.00-0.06
PennIvy0.000.100.0025.99-0.00-0.05
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.100.0063.86-0.000.03
San FranciscoWCC0.000.10100.0060.870.000.02
VillanovaBE0.000.10100.0068.630.000.04
NortheasternCAA0.000.09100.0068.990.000.04
BinghamtonAE0.000.090.0038.23-0.00-0.02
AkronMAC0.000.09100.0069.720.000.04
Notre DameACC0.000.09100.0070.180.000.04
OregonP120.000.09100.0064.920.000.03
Penn St.B100.000.0966.6746.550.00-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.09100.0071.430.000.04
San DiegoWCC0.000.0966.6749.560.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.09100.0063.340.000.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.090.0044.88-0.00-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.09100.0077.610.000.05
Western IllinoisSum0.000.090.0033.91-0.00-0.03
StetsonASun0.000.090.0031.63-0.00-0.03
Georgia St.SB0.000.090.0060.93-0.000.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.0966.6747.950.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.000.090.0053.31-0.000.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0950.0035.660.00-0.03
MarylandB100.000.07100.0067.780.000.02
St. John'sBE0.000.07100.0053.570.000.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0750.0054.560.000.01
BrownIvy0.000.0733.3338.98-0.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.07100.0059.250.000.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0750.0061.730.000.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0750.0061.050.000.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0750.0067.810.000.02
LibertyBSth0.000.0750.0043.990.00-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.070.0032.76-0.00-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0750.0052.100.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0750.0039.830.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0666.6757.950.000.01
CampbellBSth0.000.060.0030.64-0.00-0.02
FloridaSEC6.940.0650.0068.630.000.02
Loyola MDPat0.000.0666.6739.300.00-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.060.0031.05-0.00-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0049.85-0.00-0.00
AmericanPat0.000.0650.0054.500.000.01
BaylorB120.000.06100.0070.330.000.03
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0650.0055.200.000.01
BYUWCC0.000.06100.0068.310.000.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.06100.0070.520.000.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0050.480.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0650.0054.530.000.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.06100.0087.640.000.05
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0633.3328.73-0.00-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.06100.0046.120.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.000.0650.0030.220.00-0.03
PortlandWCC0.000.06100.0049.930.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0650.0047.360.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0038.86-0.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.06100.0048.650.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.000.06100.0061.570.000.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0633.3345.60-0.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.06100.0066.730.000.02
HoustonAmer0.000.06100.0065.680.000.02
ManhattanMAAC0.000.060.0057.31-0.000.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.060.0051.39-0.000.00
PittsburghACC0.000.06100.0057.350.000.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.060.0050.29-0.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.060.0045.27-0.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0666.6741.230.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0650.0046.570.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.0650.0056.950.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0633.3350.61-0.000.00
HartfordAE0.000.0666.6738.100.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.060.0023.67-0.00-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.060.0058.87-0.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.06100.0051.730.000.00
New HampshireAE0.000.060.0039.66-0.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.000.060.0048.49-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.0650.0063.340.000.02
Texas St.SB0.000.06100.0055.450.000.01
TroySB0.000.060.0044.62-0.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0666.6755.190.000.01
VermontAE0.000.0650.0066.190.000.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.060.0036.23-0.00-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.06100.0061.120.000.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.06100.0067.300.000.02
IPFWSum0.000.06100.0063.800.000.02
NavyPat0.000.060.0030.65-0.00-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0650.0035.720.00-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.060.0058.38-0.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0650.0055.890.000.01
South DakotaSum0.000.060.0035.01-0.00-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.060.0049.36-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.04100.0065.830.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.04100.0055.970.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.040.0048.48-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.040.0034.11-0.00-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.04100.0061.790.000.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0433.3335.35-0.00-0.01
LafayettePat0.000.0466.6764.300.000.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.040.0043.54-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.040.0016.22-0.00-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0366.6762.170.000.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.03100.0058.500.000.01
ColgatePat0.000.030.0036.81-0.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.03100.0065.390.000.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0350.0029.910.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.030.0026.72-0.00-0.02
TCUB120.000.03100.0054.380.000.00
WoffordSC0.000.0350.0065.490.000.01
BradleyMVC0.000.030.0025.25-0.00-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.030.0030.93-0.00-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.030.0039.41-0.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0350.0051.650.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.000.030.0032.05-0.00-0.01
IndianaB100.000.03100.0064.540.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.030.0027.60-0.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.000.03100.0060.010.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.03100.0058.910.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.03100.0063.440.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.03100.0041.770.00-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0333.3338.23-0.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.03100.0073.880.000.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0333.3337.88-0.00-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.030.0019.51-0.00-0.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.03100.0028.940.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.000.0350.0045.040.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0350.0035.370.00-0.01
WashingtonP120.000.03100.0056.080.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.03100.0074.610.000.02
DukeACC0.000.03100.0085.060.000.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.030.0034.86-0.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.03100.0044.790.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.03100.0050.010.000.00
Green BayHorz0.000.030.0066.43-0.000.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0366.6748.810.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0350.0058.740.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.030.0031.29-0.00-0.01
LehighPat0.000.030.0039.97-0.00-0.01
MercerSC0.000.0350.0053.990.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.030.0049.27-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.000.0350.0062.330.000.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0333.3364.95-0.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.03100.0048.410.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.030.0047.69-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.03100.0062.990.000.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0350.0050.840.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0350.0053.410.000.00
TempleAmer0.000.03100.0057.150.000.00
The CitadelSC0.000.030.0027.81-0.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0350.0064.340.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.030.0028.57-0.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.03100.0045.740.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.000.03100.0055.290.000.00
DrakeMVC0.000.030.0029.13-0.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0350.0052.180.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.030.0031.43-0.00-0.01
PurdueB100.000.03100.0061.020.000.01
XavierBE0.000.03100.0070.050.000.01