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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Howard

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:328.0
Current RPI:328
Expected SOS:337
Current SOS:337
Current Record:10-20
Expected Record:10-20
Current Conf Record:6-11
Expected Conf Record:6-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-11
Current OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC RPI:279
Expected OOC SOS:240



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-20328.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Howard.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Massachusetts (171.0)A10A85-79L0%0.0
11-15Rutgers (294.0)B10A82-70L0%0.0
11-23Texas Southern (190.0)SWACN87-81W100%0.0
11-25Central Arkansas (339.0)SlndN73-54W100%0.0
11-28William & Mary (67.0)CAAH79-77W100%0.0
12-5North Carolina A&T (340.0)MEACA66-63L0%0.0
12-7North Carolina Central (310.0)MEACA69-71W100%0.0
12-9Purdue (15.0)B10A93-55L0%0.0
12-12Radford (192.0)BSthH91-92L0%0.0
12-19UMBC (335.0)AEH103-93W100%0.0
12-22Central Michigan (156.0)MACA72-52L0%0.0
12-28Columbia (132.0)IvyA72-59L0%0.0
1-2Hawaii (80.0)BWA94-59L0%0.0
1-6Cornell (244.0)IvyH81-84L0%0.0
1-9Coppin St. (326.0)MEACH72-63W100%0.0
1-16Harvard (193.0)IvyH61-69L0%0.0
1-20Delaware St. (345.0)MEACA67-71W100%0.0
1-26Bethune Cookman (288.0)MEACH70-68W100%0.0
1-30Morgan St. (327.0)MEACA83-63L0%0.0
2-1Maryland Eastern Shore (307.0)MEACA85-67L0%0.0
2-6Norfolk St. (225.0)MEACH92-99L0%0.0
2-8Hampton (155.0)MEACH65-68L0%0.0
2-13Coppin St. (326.0)MEACA90-66L0%0.0
2-16Maryland Eastern Shore (307.0)MEACH77-74W100%0.0
2-20Savannah St. (277.0)MEACH56-66L0%0.0
2-22South Carolina St. (203.0)MEACH63-71L0%0.0
2-24Florida A&M (349.0)MEACH63-53W100%0.0
2-27Hampton (155.0)MEACA68-67L0%0.0
2-29Norfolk St. (225.0)MEACA84-66L0%0.0
3-8North Carolina Central (310.0)MEACN68-66L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Howard's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Howard's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Howard.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
HowardMEAC26.1226.1231.8231.82-9.50-9.50
Norfolk St.MEAC3.983.9844.8344.83-0.41-0.41
HamptonMEAC3.973.9764.2964.291.141.14
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC3.923.9227.5927.59-1.76-1.76
North Carolina CentralMEAC3.923.9233.3333.33-1.31-1.31
Coppin St.MEAC3.913.9122.2222.22-2.17-2.17
Morgan St.MEAC2.442.4424.1424.14-1.26-1.26
South Carolina St.MEAC2.422.4253.3353.330.160.16
Savannah St.MEAC2.372.3746.4346.43-0.17-0.17
North Carolina A&TMEAC2.342.3430.0030.00-0.94-0.94
Delaware St.MEAC2.342.3417.2417.24-1.53-1.53
Bethune CookmanMEAC2.282.2841.3841.38-0.39-0.39
Florida A&MMEAC2.252.2523.0823.08-1.21-1.21
ColumbiaIvy1.841.8464.2964.290.530.53
HarvardIvy1.811.8140.7440.74-0.34-0.34
CornellIvy1.781.7830.7730.77-0.69-0.69
William & MaryCAA1.751.7564.2964.290.500.50
MassachusettsA101.731.7341.9441.94-0.28-0.28
Central MichiganMAC1.721.7246.4346.43-0.12-0.12
RutgersB101.721.7216.6716.67-1.15-1.15
PurdueB101.721.7275.7675.760.890.89
UMBCAE1.721.7222.5822.58-0.94-0.94
Central ArkansasSlnd1.721.7225.9325.93-0.83-0.83
Texas SouthernSWAC1.701.7058.0658.060.270.27
HawaiiBW1.671.6782.7682.761.091.09
RadfordBSth1.671.6746.4346.43-0.12-0.12
PrincetonIvy0.290.2977.7877.780.160.16
Old DominionCUSA0.220.2262.8662.860.060.06
BrownIvy0.210.2125.9325.93-0.10-0.10
PennIvy0.210.2137.0437.04-0.05-0.05
DartmouthIvy0.180.1833.3333.33-0.06-0.06
YaleIvy0.180.1877.7877.780.100.10
AkronMAC0.170.1775.7675.760.090.09
TowsonCAA0.170.1760.0060.000.030.03
Kansas St.B120.170.1751.5251.520.010.01
NebraskaB100.160.1647.0647.06-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.160.1685.2985.290.110.11
Nicholls St.Slnd0.140.1425.8125.81-0.07-0.07
Grand CanyonWAC0.140.1479.3179.310.080.08
LongwoodBSth0.140.1423.3323.33-0.07-0.07
PittsburghACC0.140.1464.5264.520.040.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.140.1422.8622.86-0.07-0.07
ClemsonACC0.140.1454.8454.840.010.01
CreightonBE0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
SouthernSWAC0.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.130.1379.4179.410.080.08
IowaB100.130.1367.7467.740.050.05
MarylandB100.130.1375.0075.000.060.06
MichiganB100.130.1363.6463.640.030.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
CampbellBSth0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
DelawareCAA0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
High PointBSth0.110.1164.2964.290.030.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.110.1168.9768.970.040.04
WoffordSC0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.110.1143.7543.75-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.110.1138.7138.71-0.03-0.03
UMass LowellAE0.110.1135.7135.71-0.03-0.03
FordhamA100.110.1155.1755.170.010.01
AmericanPat0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.110.1110.7110.71-0.09-0.09
UC IrvineBW0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
Stony BrookAE0.110.1180.0080.000.060.06
VermontAE0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
Ohio St.B100.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
IllinoisB100.100.1044.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
HoustonAmer0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.090.0926.9226.92-0.04-0.04
OklahomaB120.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
HofstraCAA0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
LibertyBSth0.090.0934.4834.48-0.03-0.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.090.0976.6776.670.050.05
New OrleansSlnd0.090.0925.9325.93-0.04-0.04
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.090.0957.6957.690.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.080.0828.5728.57-0.04-0.04
Long Beach St.BW0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.080.0828.5728.57-0.04-0.04
AlbanyAE0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
FairfieldMAAC0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
OhioMAC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
VCUA100.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
NorthwesternB100.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Penn St.B100.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0824.2424.24-0.04-0.04
DuquesneA100.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.0814.2914.29-0.06-0.06
St. BonaventureA100.080.0873.3373.330.040.04
MinnesotaB100.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
WisconsinB100.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
SienaMAAC0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0687.1087.100.040.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0620.8320.83-0.03-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
MonmouthMAAC0.060.0679.4179.410.030.03
AuburnSEC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.060.0626.9226.92-0.03-0.03
CaliforniaP120.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
DrexelCAA0.060.0620.0020.00-0.03-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0670.0070.000.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
ColgatePat0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
VirginiaACC0.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
Boston UniversityPat0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0682.1482.140.040.04
UTSACUSA0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
BuffaloMAC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
SMUAmer0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
StetsonASun0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
UC DavisBW0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
DaytonA100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
NJITASun0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0556.0056.000.010.01
RichmondA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UCFAmer0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
DePaulBE0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
George WashingtonA100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
St. John'sBE0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
New HampshireAE0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
IndianaB100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
New MexicoMWC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
BryantNEC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0376.6776.670.020.02
TulsaAmer0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
BucknellPat0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0324.2424.24-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0372.4172.410.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0339.3939.39-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Texas TechB120.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
The CitadelSC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Seton HallBE0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
George MasonA100.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
IUPUISum0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01