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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Howard

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:291.2
Current RPI:344
Expected SOS:329
Current SOS:295
Current Record:0-5
Expected Record:11-18
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-8
Current OOC Record:0-5
Expected OOC Record:2-11
Expected OOC RPI:304
Expected OOC SOS:126



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-11161.20.04%
17-12188.50.25%
16-13202.01.08%
15-14224.73.58%
14-15242.97.53%
13-16262.612.13%
12-17280.917.64%
11-18297.018.74%
10-19310.916.89%
9-20322.111.53%
8-21331.66.81%
7-22337.92.46%
6-23343.11.00%
5-24345.80.27%
4-25348.30.03%
3-26349.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Howard.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Michigan (45.6)B10A76-58L0%0.0
11-14Marquette (60.1)BEA81-49L0%0.0
11-18IUPUI (194.4)SumA77-55L0%0.0
11-19Gardner Webb (214.7)BSthN78-94L0%0.0
11-27Georgetown (104.0)BEA85-72L0%0.0
12-3American (262.3)PatH0-051%0.2
12-7Maryland (99.7)B10A0-06%-18.9
12-10George Washington (176.1)A10A0-014%-13.1
12-14Jacksonville St. (187.2)OVCH0-041%-2.6
12-22Old Dominion (97.6)CUSAA0-08%-16.8
12-27VCU (31.1)A10A0-02%-24.8
12-30Harvard (224.3)IvyA0-017%-11.4
1-4Florida A&M (346.2)MEACH0-082%10.8
1-7Columbia (253.3)IvyA0-026%-7.8
1-14Maryland Eastern Shore (291.5)MEACA0-042%-2.3
1-16Coppin St. (342.9)MEACH0-085%12.6
1-21North Carolina A&T (339.0)MEACA0-060%2.9
1-23North Carolina Central (154.4)MEACA0-015%-12.6
1-28Savannah St. (339.8)MEACH0-079%9.8
1-30South Carolina St. (304.2)MEACH0-076%8.4
2-4Florida A&M (346.2)MEACA0-065%4.7
2-6Bethune Cookman (340.9)MEACA0-060%3.1
2-11Hampton (332.8)MEACA0-050%-0.1
2-13Morgan St. (332.1)MEACH0-071%6.6
2-18North Carolina A&T (339.0)MEACH0-078%9.1
2-20North Carolina Central (154.4)MEACH0-030%-6.5
2-25Norfolk St. (309.4)MEACA0-044%-2.0
2-27Maryland Eastern Shore (291.5)MEACH0-063%3.9
3-2Delaware St. (289.6)MEACA0-047%-0.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Howard's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Howard's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Howard.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
HowardMEAC28.7726.130.0042.55-28.77-3.89
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.004.120.0033.21-0.00-1.38
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.004.040.0023.79-0.00-2.12
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.004.0366.6775.160.002.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.003.970.0023.21-0.00-2.13
Delaware St.MEAC0.002.4116.6735.77-0.00-0.69
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.002.3816.6731.62-0.00-0.87
Morgan St.MEAC0.002.3416.6737.38-0.00-0.59
Coppin St.MEAC0.622.340.0018.34-0.62-1.48
HamptonMEAC0.002.340.0033.56-0.00-0.77
Norfolk St.MEAC0.002.320.0037.68-0.00-0.57
Savannah St.MEAC0.002.310.0024.32-0.00-1.19
South Carolina St.MEAC0.002.310.0027.91-0.00-1.02
George WashingtonA100.001.8857.1442.750.00-0.27
MichiganB1011.431.8766.6765.413.810.58
GeorgetownBE10.001.8442.8645.81-1.43-0.15
MarylandB100.621.8485.7155.190.450.19
MarquetteBE11.431.8466.6761.823.810.43
HarvardIvy0.001.820.0041.38-0.00-0.31
AmericanPat0.001.8116.6735.16-0.00-0.54
VCUA100.001.8185.7177.490.000.99
ColumbiaIvy0.001.7942.8641.20-0.00-0.32
IUPUISum11.431.7816.6745.78-7.62-0.15
Gardner WebbBSth10.001.760.0046.47-10.00-0.12
Jacksonville St.OVC0.001.7557.1446.920.00-0.11
Old DominionCUSA0.001.7566.6764.910.000.52
St. John'sBE0.000.2328.5733.92-0.00-0.07
East CarolinaAmer0.000.2275.0047.510.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.620.2075.0073.840.310.10
RichmondA100.000.2057.1448.600.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.2025.0063.95-0.000.05
JacksonvilleASun0.000.1957.1459.480.000.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.1828.5730.29-0.00-0.07
IllinoisB100.000.1757.1442.660.00-0.03
BrownIvy0.000.1750.0042.420.00-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.000.160.0023.47-0.00-0.09
MassachusettsA100.000.1583.3358.080.000.02
Ohio St.B100.000.1585.7172.660.000.07
IowaB100.000.1542.8644.33-0.00-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.1542.8634.17-0.00-0.05
Seton HallBE0.000.1571.4354.520.000.01
ButlerBE0.000.14100.0075.690.000.07
VillanovaBE0.000.14100.0083.120.000.09
CornellIvy0.000.1428.5730.63-0.00-0.05
PennIvy0.000.1440.0057.97-0.000.02
YaleIvy0.000.1433.3364.14-0.000.04
Holy CrossPat0.000.1342.8647.69-0.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.1350.0056.430.000.02
SamfordSC0.000.1257.1455.810.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.1266.6732.240.00-0.04
MarshallCUSA0.000.1283.3359.600.000.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.710.1242.8646.78-0.10-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1250.0061.810.000.03
LSUSEC0.000.1271.4349.770.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.000.1283.3374.620.000.06
RutgersB100.000.1283.3344.770.00-0.01
Penn St.B100.000.1262.5043.960.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.1250.0043.610.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.1233.3326.75-0.00-0.05
IndianaB100.000.1183.3375.060.000.06
CreightonBE0.000.11100.0076.650.000.06
DePaulBE0.000.1180.0035.960.00-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.000.1171.4356.280.000.01
XavierBE0.000.11100.0074.800.000.06
DavidsonA100.000.1183.3368.880.000.04
George MasonA100.000.1157.1442.940.00-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.1050.0027.250.00-0.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.1050.0045.410.00-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0950.0052.140.000.00
StetsonASun0.000.0928.5728.26-0.00-0.04
Stony BrookAE0.000.0916.6733.82-0.00-0.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0928.5739.44-0.00-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0971.4386.030.000.07
WinthropBSth0.000.0960.0070.500.000.04
Miami FLACC0.000.0971.4365.740.000.03
ArmyPat0.000.0933.3345.58-0.00-0.01
ColgatePat0.000.0920.0041.31-0.00-0.02
NavyPat0.000.0928.5743.62-0.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0940.0055.44-0.000.01
Western CarolinaSC0.710.0916.6718.96-0.48-0.06
High PointBSth0.000.0950.0051.260.000.00
CampbellBSth0.000.0925.0033.54-0.00-0.03
Kansas St.B120.000.0985.7155.890.000.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0928.5734.18-0.00-0.03
RiderMAAC0.000.0950.0047.990.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.000.0980.0055.340.000.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.090.0022.69-0.00-0.05
FurmanSC0.000.0920.0049.38-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0940.0067.95-0.000.03
UTEPCUSA0.000.0925.0043.26-0.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.000.0975.0067.660.000.03
FordhamA100.000.0957.1443.680.00-0.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0940.0050.71-0.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0950.0064.840.000.03
Virginia TechACC0.710.0985.7162.920.510.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.710.0957.1440.590.10-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0950.0046.780.00-0.01
SMUAmer1.710.0957.1469.300.240.03
PittsburghACC1.710.0985.7155.551.220.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0950.0054.490.000.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0971.4366.220.000.03
PurdueB100.000.0971.4374.450.000.04
GeorgiaSEC1.000.0966.6754.380.330.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0966.6739.720.00-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0920.0032.60-0.00-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0966.6758.420.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0940.0030.80-0.00-0.03
RiceCUSA0.000.0985.7169.010.000.03
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0966.6751.090.000.00
MinnesotaB100.000.0985.7165.670.000.03
Rhode IslandA100.000.0871.4370.330.000.03
Michigan St.B100.000.0850.0061.590.000.02
DaytonA100.000.0866.6772.440.000.04
DuquesneA100.000.0837.5034.65-0.00-0.03
La SalleA100.000.0860.0051.780.000.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0783.3376.370.000.03
Air ForceMWC0.000.0650.0042.710.00-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.060.0042.55-0.00-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0683.3357.990.000.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.060.0020.01-0.00-0.04
MissouriSEC0.000.0650.0045.920.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.0625.0056.92-0.000.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0657.1440.550.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0666.6753.460.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0666.6766.100.000.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0633.3343.64-0.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0625.0038.72-0.00-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0683.3361.490.000.01
DenverSum0.000.0633.3341.11-0.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC1.710.0650.0055.850.000.01
Fort WayneSum0.000.0666.6770.930.000.03
LongwoodBSth0.000.0625.0024.66-0.00-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0633.3348.73-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0633.3327.13-0.00-0.03
RadfordBSth0.000.0633.3336.31-0.00-0.02
South DakotaSum0.000.0657.1447.220.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0614.2937.52-0.00-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.060.0019.30-0.00-0.04
Ball St.MAC0.000.0650.0052.330.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0675.0054.320.000.01
WagnerNEC0.000.0633.3353.85-0.000.00
OregonP120.620.0671.4366.730.270.02
South CarolinaSEC0.710.06100.0080.780.710.04
SyracuseACC0.000.0666.6770.140.000.02
VanderbiltSEC0.710.0657.1448.860.10-0.00
AkronMAC0.000.0683.3369.840.000.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0640.0061.37-0.000.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0650.0053.530.000.00
LafayettePat0.000.0633.3331.87-0.00-0.02
LehighPat0.000.0633.3367.01-0.000.02
Loyola MDPat0.000.0633.3340.49-0.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0620.0041.93-0.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.06100.0075.010.000.03
PacificWCC0.000.0650.0049.010.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0683.3370.360.000.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0614.2928.66-0.00-0.03
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0640.0043.86-0.00-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.0642.8640.94-0.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.710.0612.5048.98-0.54-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.620.0633.3338.20-0.21-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0685.7173.010.000.03
Oklahoma St.B120.620.0683.3356.560.420.01
UABCUSA0.000.0657.1461.940.000.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0666.6770.740.000.02
BryantNEC0.000.0328.5750.20-0.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.000.0357.1448.240.00-0.00
StanfordP120.000.0375.0059.100.000.01
VermontAE0.000.0362.5071.630.000.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0350.0060.380.000.01
MaineAE0.000.0316.6725.61-0.00-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0316.6734.31-0.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0320.0036.00-0.00-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0383.3380.700.000.02
Iowa St.B120.000.0371.4368.970.000.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0385.7159.740.000.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0371.4371.570.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0328.5723.76-0.00-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0325.0039.28-0.00-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0089.040.000.02
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0375.0074.990.000.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0316.6729.36-0.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0316.6743.29-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0316.6730.27-0.00-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0333.3340.39-0.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.710.0350.0066.170.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0366.6754.420.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0333.3345.60-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0333.3338.19-0.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0350.0033.010.00-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0371.4343.020.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0371.4368.100.000.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0316.6727.03-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0342.8637.25-0.00-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0342.8638.05-0.00-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0328.5727.50-0.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0023.26-0.00-0.02
VMISC0.000.030.0021.15-0.00-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0314.2934.56-0.00-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0340.0041.65-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.0340.0050.91-0.000.00
BYUWCC0.000.0371.4368.660.000.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0316.6730.02-0.00-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0366.6769.810.000.01
DelawareCAA0.000.0340.0040.65-0.00-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0350.0043.490.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0350.0056.260.000.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0350.0050.940.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0366.6761.340.000.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0375.0064.960.000.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.0350.0062.460.000.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0342.8661.90-0.000.01
New HampshireAE0.000.0350.0057.480.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0314.2928.15-0.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0350.0038.430.00-0.01
TCUB120.000.03100.0059.480.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0357.1467.020.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0360.0039.200.00-0.01
UtahP120.000.0375.0061.040.000.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0385.7174.430.000.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0342.8637.60-0.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0316.6733.69-0.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0320.0034.39-0.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0360.0039.610.00-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0360.0067.410.000.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.710.030.0038.51-0.71-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.030.0028.15-0.00-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.0385.7175.950.000.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0360.0052.760.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0333.3323.33-0.00-0.02
UTSACUSA0.000.0328.5728.46-0.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.030.0024.25-0.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.620.0385.7168.390.450.01
BaylorB120.000.03100.0074.460.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0314.2929.15-0.00-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0333.3338.76-0.00-0.01
ElonCAA0.000.0383.3358.030.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.0385.7162.410.000.01
SienaMAAC0.000.0328.5750.51-0.000.00
TempleAmer0.000.0371.4363.570.000.01
TexasB120.000.0350.0036.240.00-0.01
UCLAP120.000.03100.0083.550.000.02