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Through games of Feb 12, 2016.


Howard

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:295.1
Current RPI:309
Expected SOS:323
Current SOS:334
Current Record:8-14
Expected Record:11-17
Current Conf Record:4-5
Expected Conf Record:7-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-8
Current OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC RPI:263
Expected OOC SOS:204



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-14247.60.69%
13-15264.56.64%
12-16280.723.08%
11-17295.034.61%
10-18307.825.33%
9-19319.98.78%
8-20330.50.86%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Howard.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Massachusetts (182.3)A10A85-79L0%0.0
11-15Rutgers (280.1)B10A82-70L0%0.0
11-23Texas Southern (193.8)SWACN87-81W100%0.0
11-25Central Arkansas (321.9)SlndN73-54W100%0.0
11-28William & Mary (50.3)CAAH79-77W100%0.0
12-5North Carolina A&T (335.6)MEACA66-63L0%0.0
12-7North Carolina Central (319.1)MEACA69-71W100%0.0
12-9Purdue (14.6)B10A93-55L0%0.0
12-12Radford (159.3)BSthH91-92L0%0.0
12-19UMBC (320.8)AEH103-93W100%0.0
12-22Central Michigan (143.0)MACA72-52L0%0.0
12-28Columbia (123.0)IvyA72-59L0%0.0
1-2Hawaii (81.8)BWA94-59L0%0.0
1-6Cornell (213.4)IvyH81-84L0%0.0
1-9Coppin St. (327.8)MEACH72-63W100%0.0
1-16Harvard (208.9)IvyH61-69L0%0.0
1-20Delaware St. (349.0)MEACA67-71W100%0.0
1-26Bethune Cookman (300.8)MEACH70-68W100%0.0
1-30Morgan St. (331.9)MEACA83-63L0%0.0
2-1Maryland Eastern Shore (274.6)MEACA85-67L0%0.0
2-6Norfolk St. (206.4)MEACH92-99L0%0.0
2-8Hampton (194.9)MEACH65-68L0%0.0
2-13Coppin St. (327.8)MEACA0-054%1.0
2-15Maryland Eastern Shore (274.6)MEACH0-064%3.8
2-20Savannah St. (327.9)MEACH0-076%7.6
2-22South Carolina St. (208.4)MEACH0-052%0.7
2-27Hampton (194.9)MEACA0-025%-7.2
2-29Norfolk St. (206.4)MEACA0-019%-9.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Howard's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Howard's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Howard.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
HowardMEAC26.1326.1436.7339.16-6.93-5.67
Norfolk St.MEAC2.584.1640.9147.74-0.47-0.19
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.734.1526.0931.21-1.31-1.56
HamptonMEAC2.694.1457.1459.210.380.76
Coppin St.MEAC2.574.0715.0020.42-1.80-2.41
Morgan St.MEAC2.532.4915.0023.14-1.77-1.34
Delaware St.MEAC2.482.469.5212.69-2.01-1.84
South Carolina St.MEAC0.522.3952.1754.380.020.21
North Carolina A&TMEAC2.632.3726.0930.77-1.26-0.91
Bethune CookmanMEAC2.582.3333.3337.42-0.86-0.59
Savannah St.MEAC0.512.3338.1038.22-0.12-0.55
North Carolina CentralMEAC2.522.2626.3234.56-1.19-0.70
ColumbiaIvy2.491.9866.6764.340.830.57
HarvardIvy2.431.9435.0036.87-0.73-0.51
CornellIvy2.431.9136.8436.65-0.64-0.51
William & MaryCAA2.381.8871.4369.701.020.74
MassachusettsA102.381.8540.9140.43-0.43-0.35
Central MichiganMAC2.381.8545.0047.52-0.24-0.09
UMBCAE2.321.8524.0026.75-1.21-0.86
RutgersB102.371.8518.1817.59-1.51-1.20
Central ArkansasSlnd2.371.8525.0030.61-1.19-0.72
PurdueB102.371.8579.1777.161.381.00
Texas SouthernSWAC2.331.8247.6256.05-0.110.22
HawaiiBW2.271.7984.2182.811.561.17
RadfordBSth2.271.7950.0052.390.000.09
Florida A&MMEAC0.370.5525.0025.09-0.18-0.27
PrincetonIvy0.210.3273.6875.880.100.17
Old DominionCUSA0.300.2558.3363.160.050.07
BrownIvy0.210.2230.0030.54-0.09-0.09
PennIvy0.160.2236.8437.30-0.04-0.06
TowsonCAA0.200.2062.5057.720.050.03
AkronMAC0.210.2082.6181.130.140.12
Kansas St.B120.150.1958.3356.290.030.02
DartmouthIvy0.220.1930.0031.18-0.09-0.07
YaleIvy0.110.1975.0075.100.050.10
Nicholls St.Slnd0.160.1618.1821.06-0.10-0.09
Grand CanyonWAC0.210.1683.3382.090.140.10
CreightonBE0.200.1664.0062.070.060.04
IowaB100.190.1679.1778.890.110.09
PittsburghACC0.200.1672.7367.600.090.05
LongwoodBSth0.140.1621.7424.59-0.08-0.08
Saint Joseph'sA100.150.1583.3381.270.100.09
Michigan St.B100.140.1580.0081.550.090.09
MarylandB100.140.1587.5083.680.110.10
NebraskaB100.200.1552.0050.770.010.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.1350.0049.320.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.160.1340.0043.21-0.03-0.02
CampbellBSth0.100.1331.8232.07-0.04-0.05
WinthropBSth0.100.1366.6763.790.030.04
UC RiversideBW0.160.1345.8341.64-0.01-0.02
High PointBSth0.160.1357.1459.870.020.03
FordhamA100.100.1352.3850.690.000.00
AmericanPat0.100.1329.1731.18-0.04-0.05
DelawareCAA0.210.1325.0024.91-0.10-0.06
Northern ArizonaBSky0.100.139.5212.09-0.08-0.10
UC IrvineBW0.110.1369.5770.020.040.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.170.1320.0022.24-0.10-0.07
ToledoMAC0.100.1260.8762.070.020.03
WoffordSC0.150.1245.8348.12-0.01-0.00
ClemsonACC0.210.1258.3358.410.030.02
UMass LowellAE0.150.1237.5037.68-0.04-0.03
Ohio St.B100.090.1260.0055.570.020.01
VermontAE0.140.1252.0054.840.010.01
MichiganB100.150.1270.8366.750.060.04
San FranciscoWCC0.110.1052.1749.150.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.1031.8230.08-0.02-0.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.100.1060.8758.910.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.100.1072.0071.330.040.04
NortheasternCAA0.160.1048.0048.59-0.01-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.100.1077.2773.930.060.05
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.160.1057.1457.670.020.01
LibertyBSth0.100.1034.7836.54-0.03-0.03
OklahomaB120.170.1086.9682.620.120.06
MissouriSEC0.050.1033.3330.27-0.02-0.04
Ball St.MAC0.000.1060.8757.170.000.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.1022.2231.13-0.03-0.04
Cal PolyBW0.160.0928.5734.10-0.07-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0945.0049.16-0.01-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0950.0054.220.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.110.0961.9065.340.030.03
New OrleansSlnd0.160.0926.3232.42-0.07-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.100.0972.0071.570.050.04
GeorgetownBE0.100.0956.0052.860.010.01
OhioMAC0.100.0965.2263.630.030.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.110.0924.0025.68-0.06-0.05
Bowling GreenMAC0.150.0950.0045.860.00-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.100.0954.1754.100.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.150.099.0917.13-0.12-0.06
St. BonaventureA100.050.0972.7370.390.020.04
Northern KentuckyHorz0.100.0931.8235.12-0.04-0.03
AlbanyAE0.140.0973.0873.770.070.04
BinghamtonAE0.100.0924.0026.42-0.05-0.04
DuquesneA100.040.0960.8756.270.010.01
Penn St.B100.090.0950.0046.760.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0964.0062.090.010.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.100.0915.0018.12-0.07-0.06
Stony BrookAE0.140.0982.6183.030.090.06
IllinoisB100.090.0945.8344.06-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0925.0027.25-0.02-0.04
WisconsinB100.090.0962.5056.990.020.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0766.6764.780.020.02
Iowa St.B120.050.0770.8367.960.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0740.9138.83-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0725.0028.14-0.03-0.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0733.3330.63-0.02-0.03
ColoradoP120.050.0770.8365.570.020.02
DrexelCAA0.050.0713.0416.41-0.04-0.04
ElonCAA0.050.0750.0050.080.000.00
HofstraCAA0.100.0766.6766.780.030.02
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0747.8351.93-0.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0745.4549.06-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.050.0786.9682.930.040.04
UC DavisBW0.060.0738.1035.34-0.01-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.110.0745.4551.69-0.010.00
UtahP120.050.0770.8368.530.020.02
AuburnSEC0.110.0639.1335.44-0.02-0.02
SienaMAAC0.110.0665.3864.920.030.02
VirginiaACC0.110.0683.3378.460.070.04
BaylorB120.050.0673.9168.450.020.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.110.0650.0051.280.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.110.0643.4843.76-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.110.0686.3684.240.080.04
BYUWCC0.110.0668.0070.260.040.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.100.0643.4845.20-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0634.7832.89-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0660.0057.680.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0617.6526.60-0.04-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0614.2924.87-0.04-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.100.0662.5063.450.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0631.8232.68-0.00-0.02
DaytonA100.100.0687.5083.730.080.04
MonmouthMAAC0.110.0680.7781.890.070.04
SyracuseACC0.110.0668.0064.070.040.02
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0647.8348.57-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.110.0630.0029.17-0.04-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.110.0645.4543.17-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.100.0643.4844.88-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.100.0656.0056.500.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.100.0654.1754.420.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0641.6739.50-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.100.0665.2260.710.030.01
ProvidenceBE0.100.0672.0069.130.050.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.110.0672.2275.710.050.03
UTSACUSA0.110.0613.0412.96-0.08-0.05
VCUA100.100.0670.8371.030.040.03
Virginia TechACC0.100.0652.0048.910.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.050.0660.8755.980.010.01
DePaulBE0.050.0633.3334.02-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0672.0073.080.020.03
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0650.0049.490.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0686.9680.430.040.04
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0652.1751.840.000.00
StetsonASun0.050.0622.7327.37-0.03-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.050.0654.1754.210.000.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.100.0655.5652.480.010.00
RichmondA100.100.0656.5255.820.010.01
UCFAmer0.100.0650.0044.640.00-0.01
LehighPat0.100.0639.1342.83-0.02-0.01
NJITASun0.100.0656.0055.640.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0636.8442.87-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0628.5733.29-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0640.0040.34-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.100.0675.0071.980.050.03
La SalleA100.050.0619.0520.30-0.03-0.04
Rhode IslandA100.050.0656.0055.750.010.01
FloridaSEC0.090.0666.6766.320.030.02
IndianaB100.050.0680.0075.690.030.03
New MexicoMWC0.100.0658.3360.710.020.01
St. John'sBE0.090.0625.0023.43-0.05-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.090.0641.6739.90-0.02-0.01
HartfordAE0.040.0624.0024.55-0.02-0.03
MaineAE0.090.0632.0031.17-0.03-0.02
New HampshireAE0.040.0659.0956.880.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0360.8760.240.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0339.1341.06-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0342.8641.32-0.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.060.0370.8367.980.020.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0372.7370.510.030.01
MarshallCUSA0.060.0350.0051.150.000.00
OregonP120.000.0379.1777.220.000.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.060.0334.7834.94-0.02-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0320.0019.72-0.00-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0342.3144.49-0.01-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.060.0354.1751.980.000.00
LafayettePat0.060.0320.8321.68-0.03-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.060.0343.4844.81-0.01-0.00
NevadaMWC0.060.0357.1455.350.010.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0350.0048.970.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0356.0055.450.010.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.060.0343.4844.24-0.01-0.00
Texas TechB120.060.0360.8755.310.010.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0335.0034.87-0.02-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0329.1726.68-0.02-0.01
BryantNEC0.050.0324.0024.92-0.03-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0366.6767.660.020.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0327.2727.81-0.02-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0383.3383.710.030.02
Holy CrossPat0.050.0341.6739.59-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0350.0049.890.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0324.0024.16-0.03-0.02
KansasB120.050.0382.6179.210.040.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0360.8762.470.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0323.8125.48-0.03-0.02
RiderMAAC0.050.0338.4641.36-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0376.1972.410.030.01
TulsaAmer0.050.0366.6764.730.020.01
WagnerNEC0.050.0360.8762.520.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.050.0366.6769.760.020.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0345.4546.07-0.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.050.0352.1754.970.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0363.6461.560.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0326.9228.60-0.02-0.01
TCUB120.050.0345.8339.36-0.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.050.0365.2262.360.020.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0350.0050.500.000.00
The CitadelSC0.050.0330.4329.49-0.02-0.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0379.1778.100.030.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0312.5013.26-0.04-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0337.5042.32-0.01-0.00
DavidsonA100.050.0361.9058.180.010.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0352.1753.740.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0350.0052.880.000.00
George MasonA100.000.0333.3333.62-0.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.050.0360.8760.730.010.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0362.5058.940.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0323.0823.85-0.03-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0360.8759.830.010.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0334.7832.39-0.02-0.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0370.8368.090.020.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0326.0928.41-0.02-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.050.0321.7422.42-0.03-0.02
Washington St.P120.050.0334.7831.64-0.02-0.01
ButlerBE0.050.0370.8368.990.020.01
IUPUISum0.050.0338.4638.50-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.040.0333.3335.19-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.040.0342.3146.12-0.01-0.00
NavyPat0.040.0364.0064.470.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.040.0327.2726.46-0.02-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0358.3359.970.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0330.4332.24-0.02-0.01