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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Howard

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:255.0
Current RPI:255
Expected SOS:336
Current SOS:336
Current Record:13-16
Expected Record:13-16
Current Conf Record:10-7
Expected Conf Record:10-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-7
Current OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC RPI:265
Expected OOC SOS:272



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-16255.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Howard.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Miami FL (65.0)ACCA84-49L0%0.0
11-18William & Mary (93.0)CAAA56-49L0%0.0
11-20Radford (154.0)BSthA61-52L0%0.0
11-25UMBC (346.0)AEA54-68W100%0.0
12-2Duquesne (222.0)A10A81-63L0%0.0
12-6North Carolina A&T (340.0)MEACH54-47W100%0.0
12-7North Carolina Central (128.0)MEACN39-61L0%0.0
12-13Richmond (56.0)A10A54-41L0%0.0
12-15IUPUI (260.0)SumH57-47W100%0.0
12-17Pepperdine (134.0)WCCA53-45L0%0.0
12-23South Alabama (275.0)SBA60-73W100%0.0
12-28Fordham (238.0)A10A74-59L0%0.0
1-8Cornell (227.0)IvyA70-60L0%0.0
1-10Coppin St. (311.0)MEACH71-69W100%0.0
1-12Delaware St. (204.0)MEACH76-79L0%0.0
1-24Florida A&M (350.0)MEACA50-59W100%0.0
1-26Bethune Cookman (344.0)MEACA42-45W100%0.0
1-31Morgan St. (337.0)MEACH64-48W100%0.0
2-2Maryland Eastern Shore (195.0)MEACH83-74W100%0.0
2-7Norfolk St. (167.0)MEACA72-69L0%0.0
2-9Hampton (251.0)MEACA73-69L0%0.0
2-14Coppin St. (311.0)MEACA60-77W100%0.0
2-16Maryland Eastern Shore (195.0)MEACA71-60L0%0.0
2-21Savannah St. (331.0)MEACA48-50W100%0.0
2-23South Carolina St. (320.0)MEACA65-75W100%0.0
2-28Hampton (251.0)MEACH67-68L0%0.0
3-2Norfolk St. (167.0)MEACH61-59W100%0.0
3-4NJIT (159.0)indA71-62L0%0.0
3-12Delaware St. (204.0)MEACN60-65L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Howard's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Howard's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Howard.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
HowardMEAC26.0926.0952.7652.761.441.44
HamptonMEAC4.234.2345.1645.16-0.41-0.41
Delaware St.MEAC4.214.2145.1645.16-0.41-0.41
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC4.154.1556.6756.670.550.55
Norfolk St.MEAC4.084.0858.6258.620.700.70
Coppin St.MEAC4.064.0625.0025.00-2.03-2.03
South Carolina St.MEAC2.452.4530.0030.00-0.98-0.98
Morgan St.MEAC2.442.4423.3323.33-1.30-1.30
North Carolina CentralMEAC2.422.4275.0075.001.211.21
Savannah St.MEAC2.362.3625.0025.00-1.18-1.18
North Carolina A&TMEAC2.342.3424.1424.14-1.21-1.21
Bethune CookmanMEAC2.342.3431.0331.03-0.89-0.89
Florida A&MMEAC2.292.297.147.14-1.96-1.96
NJITind1.971.9754.1754.170.160.16
RichmondA101.921.9258.0658.060.310.31
South AlabamaSB1.871.8733.3333.33-0.62-0.62
DuquesneA101.871.8734.4834.48-0.58-0.58
FordhamA101.861.8627.5927.59-0.83-0.83
IUPUISum1.841.8433.3333.33-0.61-0.61
UMBCAE1.811.8113.7913.79-1.31-1.31
RadfordBSth1.811.8160.7160.710.390.39
PepperdineWCC1.811.8155.1755.170.190.19
Miami FLACC1.781.7862.5062.500.450.45
CornellIvy1.751.7539.2939.29-0.38-0.38
William & MaryCAA1.751.7558.6258.620.300.30
VCUA100.220.2274.2974.290.110.11
UMass LowellAE0.210.2139.2939.29-0.05-0.05
TowsonCAA0.200.2035.4835.48-0.06-0.06
HofstraCAA0.200.2060.6160.610.040.04
George WashingtonA100.200.2063.6463.640.050.05
St. BonaventureA100.190.1958.0658.060.030.03
Virginia TechACC0.190.1933.3333.33-0.06-0.06
Saint LouisA100.170.1732.2632.26-0.06-0.06
George MasonA100.170.1726.6726.67-0.08-0.08
James MadisonCAA0.170.1759.3859.380.030.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.170.1760.7160.710.040.04
Rhode IslandA100.170.1770.0070.000.070.07
WinthropBSth0.150.1555.1755.170.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.140.1466.6766.670.050.05
DaytonA100.140.1475.7675.760.070.07
DavidsonA100.140.1476.6776.670.070.07
USC UpstateASun0.140.1463.3363.330.040.04
Old DominionCUSA0.140.1477.4277.420.080.08
Northern ArizonaBSky0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
IllinoisB100.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
AlbanyAE0.130.1375.0075.000.060.06
MaineAE0.130.1310.0010.00-0.10-0.10
St. Francis PANEC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.120.1267.8667.860.040.04
PrincetonIvy0.120.1251.7251.720.000.00
Penn St.B100.120.1252.9452.940.010.01
ElonCAA0.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
La SalleA100.110.1151.5251.520.000.00
MassachusettsA100.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.110.1167.6567.650.040.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
DenverSum0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.110.1158.8258.820.020.02
PennIvy0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.110.1127.2727.27-0.05-0.05
DelawareCAA0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
IowaB100.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
Notre DameACC0.110.1185.2985.290.080.08
OregonP120.110.1172.7372.730.050.05
VirginiaACC0.110.1190.6290.620.090.09
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
SyracuseACC0.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
Appalachian St.SB0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.110.1170.0070.000.040.04
Wake ForestACC0.110.1140.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.100.1010.3410.34-0.08-0.08
DartmouthIvy0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
YaleIvy0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.090.0916.1316.13-0.06-0.06
MichiganB100.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.090.0994.1294.120.080.08
LongwoodBSth0.090.0928.1228.12-0.04-0.04
SienaMAAC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
StetsonASun0.090.0921.4321.43-0.05-0.05
LibertyBSth0.090.0914.2914.29-0.06-0.06
BinghamtonAE0.090.0916.6716.67-0.06-0.06
GonzagaWCC0.090.0993.9493.940.080.08
VermontAE0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.090.0968.9768.970.030.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.090.0947.0647.06-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.090.0968.9768.970.030.03
San FranciscoWCC0.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.080.0868.5768.570.030.03
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0823.0823.08-0.05-0.05
Arkansas Little RockSB0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0867.8667.860.030.03
Georgia St.SB0.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
CampbellBSth0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
LouisvilleACC0.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
DetroitHorz0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
MarquetteBE0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0659.2659.260.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0644.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
HarvardIvy0.060.0674.0774.070.030.03
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Loyola MDPat0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
MarylandB100.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0618.7518.75-0.04-0.04
North FloridaASun0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Arizona St.P120.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
BYUWCC0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0658.8258.820.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
HartfordAE0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
MonmouthMAAC0.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
New HampshireAE0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
PacificWCC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
ClemsonACC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
Boston UniversityPat0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
HoustonAmer0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0664.7164.710.020.02
Texas St.SB0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.060.0629.6329.63-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0590.9190.910.040.04
BucknellPat0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
NavyPat0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
AmericanPat0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
HawaiiBW0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
IonaMAAC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
North TexasCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Holy CrossPat0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
ColgatePat0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
IndianaB100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
TCUB120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
TulaneAmer0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
LehighPat0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
MercerSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
MinnesotaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.030.030.000.00-0.03-0.03
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.030.0329.6329.63-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
DrakeMVC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
XavierBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
DukeACC0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01