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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Howard

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:337.0
Current RPI:337
Expected SOS:332
Current SOS:332
Current Record:8-24
Expected Record:8-24
Current Conf Record:7-12
Expected Conf Record:7-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-12
Current OOC Record:1-12
Expected OOC Record:1-12
Expected OOC RPI:301
Expected OOC SOS:85



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-24337.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Howard.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Michigan (25.0)B10A76-58L0%0.0
11-14Marquette (60.0)BEA81-49L0%0.0
11-18IUPUI (218.0)SumA77-55L0%0.0
11-19Gardner Webb (186.0)BSthN78-94L0%0.0
11-27Georgetown (106.0)BEA85-72L0%0.0
12-3American (310.0)PatH71-54W100%0.0
12-7Maryland (36.0)B10A79-56L0%0.0
12-10George Washington (102.0)A10A79-62L0%0.0
12-14Jacksonville St. (149.0)OVCH59-72L0%0.0
12-22Old Dominion (138.0)CUSAA65-46L0%0.0
12-27VCU (22.0)A10A85-51L0%0.0
12-30Harvard (143.0)IvyA67-46L0%0.0
1-4Florida A&M (349.0)MEACH66-78L0%0.0
1-7Columbia (262.0)IvyA66-48L0%0.0
1-14Maryland Eastern Shore (278.0)MEACA66-74W100%0.0
1-16Coppin St. (336.0)MEACH72-81L0%0.0
1-21North Carolina A&T (350.0)MEACA63-78W100%0.0
1-23North Carolina Central (199.0)MEACA74-39L0%0.0
1-28Savannah St. (279.0)MEACH70-73L0%0.0
1-30South Carolina St. (299.0)MEACH68-77L0%0.0
2-4Florida A&M (349.0)MEACA71-62L0%0.0
2-6Bethune Cookman (346.0)MEACA71-67L0%0.0
2-11Hampton (283.0)MEACA75-61L0%0.0
2-13Morgan St. (326.0)MEACH70-67W100%0.0
2-18North Carolina A&T (350.0)MEACH84-53W100%0.0
2-20North Carolina Central (199.0)MEACH59-66L0%0.0
2-25Norfolk St. (254.0)MEACA73-65L0%0.0
2-27Maryland Eastern Shore (278.0)MEACH79-69W100%0.0
3-2Delaware St. (332.0)MEACA66-56L0%0.0
3-6Coppin St. (336.0)MEACN73-79W100%0.0
3-9Morgan St. (326.0)MEACN65-68W100%0.0
3-10Norfolk St. (254.0)MEACA68-53L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Howard's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Howard's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Howard.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
HowardMEAC26.2026.2026.8726.87-12.12-12.12
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC3.913.9140.0040.00-0.78-0.78
North Carolina CentralMEAC3.833.8371.4371.431.641.64
Norfolk St.MEAC3.763.7644.8344.83-0.39-0.39
North Carolina A&TMEAC3.753.753.573.57-3.48-3.48
Morgan St.MEAC3.743.7448.1548.15-0.14-0.14
Coppin St.MEAC3.733.7321.4321.43-2.13-2.13
Florida A&MMEAC3.703.7011.5411.54-2.85-2.85
Bethune CookmanMEAC2.322.3224.1424.14-1.20-1.20
South Carolina St.MEAC2.302.3028.5728.57-0.99-0.99
Delaware St.MEAC2.282.2824.1424.14-1.18-1.18
HamptonMEAC2.272.2740.7440.74-0.42-0.42
Savannah St.MEAC2.192.1938.4638.46-0.51-0.51
GeorgetownBE1.691.6941.9441.94-0.27-0.27
MichiganB101.691.6967.6567.650.600.60
George WashingtonA101.691.6956.2556.250.210.21
MarquetteBE1.661.6660.0060.000.330.33
MarylandB101.661.6673.3373.330.770.77
HarvardIvy1.651.6560.0060.000.330.33
AmericanPat1.641.6427.5927.59-0.73-0.73
VCUA101.641.6475.7675.760.840.84
ColumbiaIvy1.621.6236.0036.00-0.45-0.45
IUPUISum1.611.6137.9337.93-0.39-0.39
Gardner WebbBSth1.591.5951.7251.720.050.05
Jacksonville St.OVC1.591.5954.8454.840.150.15
Old DominionCUSA1.591.5960.0060.000.320.32
St. John'sBE0.220.2242.4242.42-0.03-0.03
RichmondA100.220.2262.5062.500.050.05
WisconsinB100.200.2073.5373.530.090.09
East CarolinaAmer0.190.1945.4545.45-0.02-0.02
BrownIvy0.170.1739.2939.29-0.04-0.04
PrincetonIvy0.170.1778.5778.570.100.10
IllinoisB100.170.1754.8454.840.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.160.1646.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.160.1640.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Seton HallBE0.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
YaleIvy0.150.1560.7160.710.030.03
ButlerBE0.150.1574.1974.190.070.07
DartmouthIvy0.150.1525.9325.93-0.07-0.07
High PointBSth0.130.1342.8642.86-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.130.1360.7160.710.030.03
MassachusettsA100.130.1345.4545.45-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.130.1355.8855.880.020.02
AkronMAC0.130.1375.7675.760.070.07
Western KentuckyCUSA0.130.1346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.130.1343.7543.75-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.130.1334.4834.48-0.04-0.04
VillanovaBE0.130.1391.1891.180.100.10
Penn St.B100.130.1345.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
Saint LouisA100.120.1236.3636.36-0.03-0.03
PurdueB100.120.1278.1278.120.070.07
CornellIvy0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
PennIvy0.120.1246.4346.43-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
Holy CrossPat0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
WinthropBSth0.110.1180.0080.000.060.06
CampbellBSth0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
Northern KentuckyHorz0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
LSUSEC0.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.100.1022.5822.58-0.05-0.05
CreightonBE0.100.1072.7372.730.050.05
DePaulBE0.100.1028.1228.12-0.04-0.04
ProvidenceBE0.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
XavierBE0.100.1061.7661.760.020.02
NorthwesternB100.100.1067.6567.650.030.03
UCFAmer0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
IndianaB100.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
NebraskaB100.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
MinnesotaB100.100.1072.7372.730.040.04
Rhode IslandA100.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
DavidsonA100.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
HoustonAmer0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Stony BrookAE0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
ColgatePat0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
HofstraCAA0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
StetsonASun0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
RiderMAAC0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
WagnerNEC0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Kansas St.B120.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
ClemsonACC0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0828.1228.12-0.03-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0823.0823.08-0.04-0.04
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
FordhamA100.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
North TexasCUSA0.080.0821.4321.43-0.04-0.04
PittsburghACC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Wichita St.MVC0.080.0887.8887.880.060.06
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
FurmanSC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
LibertyBSth0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.080.0870.0070.000.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
UMBCAE0.070.0757.1457.140.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
SMUAmer0.070.0788.2488.240.060.06
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
UTEPCUSA0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.070.0777.7877.780.040.04
Virginia TechACC0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
La SalleA100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
DuquesneA100.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
Michigan St.B100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
DaytonA100.070.0776.6776.670.040.04
Air ForceMWC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0535.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.050.0584.8584.850.040.04
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
BYUWCC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
DenverSum0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
LehighPat0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Loyola MDPat0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0519.2319.23-0.03-0.03
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Notre DameACC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
PacificWCC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
RadfordBSth0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UtahP120.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
SyracuseACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
St. BonaventureA100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
AlbanyAE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
BryantNEC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
VermontAE0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Iowa St.B120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
MemphisAmer0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0310.0010.00-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
VMISC0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.020.0244.4444.44-0.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
TulsaAmer0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
SienaMAAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
TempleAmer0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
BaylorB120.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.020.0287.8887.880.020.02