Howard

Conference:	MEAC
Expected RPI:	284.0
Current RPI:	284
Expected SOS:	262
Current SOS:	262
Current Record:	9-21
Expected Record:	9-21
Current Conf Record:	7-11
Expected Conf Record:	7-11
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-9
Current OOC Record:	2-10
Expected OOC Record:	2-10
Expected OOC RPI:	253
Expected OOC SOS:	41

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
9-21	284.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Howard.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Bowling Green (158.0)	MAC	A	63-48	L	0%
11-16	Old Dominion (103.0)	CAA	A	53-43	L	0%
11-21	Rider (199.0)	MAAC	A	74-72	L	0%
11-26	William & Mary (299.0)	CAA	H	67-58	W	100%
11-29	American (142.0)	Pat	A	77-66	L	0%
12-4	Hampton (306.0)	MEAC	N	53-71	L	0%
12-6	Delaware St. (249.0)	MEAC	H	72-65	W	100%
12-10	Georgetown (15.0)	BE	A	62-48	L	0%
12-12	St. Francis NY (210.0)	NEC	H	71-73	L	0%
12-15	Oregon St. (135.0)	P12	A	93-72	L	0%
12-19	Indiana (17.0)	B10	A	107-50	L	0%
12-22	Delaware (153.0)	CAA	H	88-83	W	100%
12-29	Kansas (6.0)	B12	A	89-34	L	0%
12-31	Kansas St. (45.0)	B12	A	82-46	L	0%
1-4	Coppin St. (276.0)	MEAC	H	77-83	L	0%
1-7	Hampton (306.0)	MEAC	A	57-55	L	0%
1-9	Norfolk St. (128.0)	MEAC	A	68-48	L	0%
1-14	North Carolina A&T (289.0)	MEAC	H	65-70	L	0%
1-16	North Carolina Central (233.0)	MEAC	H	53-69	L	0%
1-28	Savannah St. (191.0)	MEAC	A	71-50	L	0%
1-30	South Carolina St. (343.0)	MEAC	A	76-82	W	100%
2-4	Maryland Eastern Shore (320.0)	MEAC	A	78-65	L	0%
2-6	Morgan St. (286.0)	MEAC	A	46-54	W	100%
2-11	Florida A&M (316.0)	MEAC	H	71-69	W	100%
2-13	Bethune Cookman (239.0)	MEAC	H	67-73	L	0%
2-18	Coppin St. (276.0)	MEAC	A	66-70	W	100%
2-20	Maryland Eastern Shore (320.0)	MEAC	H	53-51	W	100%
2-25	Delaware St. (249.0)	MEAC	A	63-46	L	0%
3-6	North Carolina A&T (289.0)	MEAC	N	50-51	W	100%
3-7	Norfolk St. (128.0)	MEAC	N	71-61	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Howard's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Howard's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Howard.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Howard	MEAC	26.17	26.17	32.03	32.03	-9.41	-9.41
Hampton	MEAC	4.10	4.10	32.26	32.26	-1.46	-1.46
Norfolk St.	MEAC	4.10	4.10	73.33	73.33	1.92	1.92
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	4.05	4.05	18.52	18.52	-2.55	-2.55
Delaware St.	MEAC	4.00	4.00	48.00	48.00	-0.16	-0.16
Coppin St.	MEAC	3.97	3.97	37.50	37.50	-0.99	-0.99
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	3.87	3.87	29.63	29.63	-1.58	-1.58
Morgan St.	MEAC	2.46	2.46	32.14	32.14	-0.88	-0.88
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	2.45	2.45	46.88	46.88	-0.15	-0.15
Florida A&M	MEAC	2.43	2.43	26.67	26.67	-1.14	-1.14
North Carolina Central	MEAC	2.37	2.37	44.44	44.44	-0.26	-0.26
Savannah St.	MEAC	2.36	2.36	62.07	62.07	0.57	0.57
South Carolina St.	MEAC	2.28	2.28	10.71	10.71	-1.79	-1.79
Delaware	CAA	1.86	1.86	60.00	60.00	0.37	0.37
American	Pat	1.80	1.80	63.33	63.33	0.48	0.48
William & Mary	CAA	1.79	1.79	16.67	16.67	-1.20	-1.20
Kansas St.	B12	1.77	1.77	66.67	66.67	0.59	0.59
Old Dominion	CAA	1.77	1.77	59.38	59.38	0.33	0.33
Kansas	B12	1.75	1.75	81.25	81.25	1.09	1.09
Georgetown	BE	1.75	1.75	72.41	72.41	0.78	0.78
Indiana	B10	1.72	1.72	75.00	75.00	0.86	0.86
St. Francis NY	NEC	1.72	1.72	48.28	48.28	-0.06	-0.06
Bowling Green	MAC	1.67	1.67	48.28	48.28	-0.06	-0.06
Oregon St.	P12	1.67	1.67	54.84	54.84	0.16	0.16
Rider	MAAC	1.67	1.67	38.71	38.71	-0.38	-0.38
Towson	CAA	0.27	0.27	3.12	3.12	-0.26	-0.26
Drexel	CAA	0.24	0.24	81.82	81.82	0.15	0.15
Baylor	B12	0.21	0.21	78.79	78.79	0.12	0.12
James Madison	CAA	0.21	0.21	37.50	37.50	-0.05	-0.05
Oklahoma	B12	0.20	0.20	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.18	0.18	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
George Washington	A10	0.17	0.17	32.26	32.26	-0.06	-0.06
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.17	0.17	33.33	33.33	-0.06	-0.06
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.17	0.17	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.16	0.16	78.12	78.12	0.09	0.09
Navy	Pat	0.16	0.16	7.14	7.14	-0.14	-0.14
Georgia St.	CAA	0.16	0.16	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Longwood	ind	0.16	0.16	22.22	22.22	-0.09	-0.09
Marquette	BE	0.16	0.16	78.12	78.12	0.09	0.09
Hofstra	CAA	0.16	0.16	31.25	31.25	-0.06	-0.06
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.16	0.16	32.26	32.26	-0.06	-0.06
Missouri	B12	0.16	0.16	88.24	88.24	0.12	0.12
Wagner	NEC	0.15	0.15	80.65	80.65	0.09	0.09
Ohio	MAC	0.14	0.14	78.79	78.79	0.08	0.08
Akron	MAC	0.14	0.14	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Liberty	BSth	0.13	0.13	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Long Island	NEC	0.13	0.13	75.76	75.76	0.07	0.07
George Mason	CAA	0.13	0.13	72.73	72.73	0.06	0.06
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.13	0.13	82.35	82.35	0.08	0.08
Texas	B12	0.13	0.13	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Richmond	A10	0.13	0.13	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M	B12	0.13	0.13	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.12	0.12	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.12	0.12	64.71	64.71	0.03	0.03
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.12	0.12	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.12	0.12	75.00	75.00	0.06	0.06
Notre Dame	BE	0.11	0.11	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Purdue	B10	0.11	0.11	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Pittsburgh	BE	0.11	0.11	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.11	0.11	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.11	0.11	27.59	27.59	-0.05	-0.05
St. John's	BE	0.11	0.11	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Army	Pat	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Lafayette	Pat	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Central Florida	CUSA	0.11	0.11	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Iowa	B10	0.11	0.11	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.11	0.11	13.33	13.33	-0.08	-0.08
North Florida	ASun	0.11	0.11	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.11	0.11	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
South Florida	BE	0.11	0.11	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Stetson	ASun	0.11	0.11	28.57	28.57	-0.05	-0.05
Robert Morris	NEC	0.10	0.10	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Iowa St.	B12	0.10	0.10	68.75	68.75	0.04	0.04
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.10	0.10	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.10	0.10	25.81	25.81	-0.05	-0.05
Fairfield	MAAC	0.10	0.10	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Charlotte	A10	0.09	0.09	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.09	0.09	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.09	0.09	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.09	0.09	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Hawaii	WAC	0.09	0.09	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.09	0.09	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
NC Greensboro	SC	0.09	0.09	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Rice	CUSA	0.08	0.08	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Chicago St.	GWC	0.08	0.08	10.71	10.71	-0.07	-0.07
Portland St.	BSky	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
St. Mary's	WCC	0.08	0.08	83.33	83.33	0.06	0.06
Miami OH	MAC	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
Providence	BE	0.08	0.08	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon	P12	0.08	0.08	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Monmouth	NEC	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Colgate	Pat	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Villanova	BE	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Southern California	P12	0.08	0.08	18.75	18.75	-0.05	-0.05
Morehead St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Michigan St.	B10	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Rutgers	BE	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Washington	P12	0.08	0.08	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Washington St.	P12	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Stanford	P12	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.08	0.08	94.12	94.12	0.07	0.07
Ohio St.	B10	0.08	0.08	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
Penn St.	B10	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
San Jose St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Air Force	MWC	0.06	0.06	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Creighton	MVC	0.06	0.06	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
Houston	CUSA	0.06	0.06	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Tulane	CUSA	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.06	0.06	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.06	0.06	64.29	64.29	0.02	0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Cincinnati	BE	0.06	0.06	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.06	0.06	10.34	10.34	-0.04	-0.04
Kent St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Memphis	CUSA	0.06	0.06	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.06	0.06	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Brown	Ivy	0.05	0.05	23.33	23.33	-0.03	-0.03
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Temple	A10	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
West Virginia	BE	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Albany	AE	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Cornell	Ivy	0.05	0.05	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.05	0.05	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Butler	Horz	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Jacksonville	ASun	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.05	0.05	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Long Beach St.	BW	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
California	P12	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.03	-0.03
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.05	16.13	16.13	-0.04	-0.04
Texas Christian	MWC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Utah	P12	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.03	-0.03
Stony Brook	AE	0.05	0.05	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
High Point	BSth	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.05	0.05	25.93	25.93	-0.02	-0.02
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.05	0.05	32.00	32.00	-0.02	-0.02
Utah Valley	GWC	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Cal Poly	BW	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	96.43	96.43	0.03	0.03
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Xavier	A10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Austin Peay	OVC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Florida International	SB	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
IUPUI	Sum	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Louisville	BE	0.03	0.03	74.29	74.29	0.01	0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Syracuse	BE	0.03	0.03	93.94	93.94	0.02	0.02
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Valparaiso	Horz	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Boston University	AE	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Columbia	Ivy	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Radford	BSth	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Western Carolina	SC	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Arizona St.	P12	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.03	0.03	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Idaho	WAC	0.03	0.03	55.17	55.17	0.00	0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Montana	BSky	0.03	0.03	79.31	79.31	0.02	0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Davidson	SC	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota	GWC	0.03	0.03	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Vermont	AE	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01