Penn

Conference:	Ivy
Expected RPI:	112.0
Current RPI:	112
Expected SOS:	278
Current SOS:	278
Current Record:	23-8
Expected Record:	23-8
Current Conf Record:	14-2
Expected Conf Record:	14-2
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	8-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	15-1
Current OOC Record:	9-6
Expected OOC Record:	9-6
Expected OOC RPI:	165
Expected OOC SOS:	264

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
23-8	112.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Penn.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Fairfield (180.0)	MAAC	A	80-72	L	0%
11-13	La Salle (202.0)	A10	H	71-75	L	0%
11-15	Navy (200.0)	Pat	H	66-45	W	100%
11-20	Northern Illinois (241.0)	MAC	N	80-93	W	100%
11-21	Towson (153.0)	CAA	N	79-71	L	0%
11-22	UMKC (256.0)	WAC	N	68-65	W	100%
11-25	Monmouth (199.0)	MAAC	A	96-101	W	100%
11-29	Villanova (2.0)	BE	A	90-62	L	0%
12-4	Howard (339.0)	MEAC	A	68-81	W	100%
12-6	Lafayette (311.0)	Pat	A	68-73	W	100%
12-9	Dayton (146.0)	A10	A	70-78	W	100%
12-27	Delaware St. (351.0)	MEAC	H	105-52	W	100%
12-29	Toledo (75.0)	MAC	H	72-85	L	0%
1-6	Princeton (226.0)	Ivy	H	76-70	W	100%
1-12	Cornell (248.0)	Ivy	H	69-61	W	100%
1-13	Columbia (316.0)	Ivy	H	77-71	W	100%
1-20	Temple (52.0)	Amer	H	51-60	L	0%
1-27	Saint Joseph's (147.0)	A10	N	67-56	W	100%
2-2	Brown (298.0)	Ivy	H	95-90	W	100%
2-3	Yale (183.0)	Ivy	H	59-50	W	100%
2-6	Princeton (226.0)	Ivy	A	65-82	W	100%
2-9	Dartmouth (334.0)	Ivy	A	61-64	W	100%
2-10	Harvard (117.0)	Ivy	A	76-67	L	0%
2-16	Columbia (316.0)	Ivy	A	62-74	W	100%
2-17	Cornell (248.0)	Ivy	A	71-79	W	100%
2-23	Dartmouth (334.0)	Ivy	H	74-46	W	100%
2-24	Harvard (117.0)	Ivy	H	74-71	W	100%
3-2	Yale (183.0)	Ivy	A	80-79	L	0%
3-3	Brown (298.0)	Ivy	A	93-99	W	100%
3-10	Yale (183.0)	Ivy	H	80-57	W	100%
3-11	Harvard (117.0)	Ivy	H	68-65	W	100%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Penn's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Penn's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Penn.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Penn	Ivy	26.48	26.48	74.50	74.50	12.97	12.97
Harvard	Ivy	5.69	5.69	59.26	59.26	1.05	1.05
Yale	Ivy	5.63	5.63	51.85	51.85	0.21	0.21
Cornell	Ivy	4.17	4.17	44.00	44.00	-0.50	-0.50
Princeton	Ivy	4.12	4.12	46.15	46.15	-0.32	-0.32
Columbia	Ivy	4.08	4.08	29.17	29.17	-1.70	-1.70
Brown	Ivy	4.03	4.03	41.67	41.67	-0.67	-0.67
Dartmouth	Ivy	4.03	4.03	25.00	25.00	-2.02	-2.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	1.90	1.90	51.61	51.61	0.06	0.06
Lafayette	Pat	1.81	1.81	31.03	31.03	-0.69	-0.69
Monmouth	MAAC	1.80	1.80	36.67	36.67	-0.48	-0.48
Villanova	BE	1.78	1.78	87.88	87.88	1.35	1.35
La Salle	A10	1.77	1.77	38.71	38.71	-0.40	-0.40
Toledo	MAC	1.75	1.75	65.62	65.62	0.55	0.55
Navy	Pat	1.73	1.73	63.33	63.33	0.46	0.46
Temple	Amer	1.69	1.69	51.61	51.61	0.05	0.05
Fairfield	MAAC	1.66	1.66	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Dayton	A10	1.66	1.66	46.67	46.67	-0.11	-0.11
Northern Illinois	MAC	1.66	1.66	37.93	37.93	-0.40	-0.40
Howard	MEAC	1.64	1.64	26.67	26.67	-0.77	-0.77
Delaware St.	MEAC	1.64	1.64	6.90	6.90	-1.41	-1.41
Towson	CAA	1.64	1.64	51.72	51.72	0.06	0.06
UMKC	WAC	1.61	1.61	28.57	28.57	-0.69	-0.69
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.31	0.31	36.36	36.36	-0.09	-0.09
Lehigh	Pat	0.27	0.27	51.72	51.72	0.01	0.01
George Washington	A10	0.27	0.27	45.45	45.45	-0.02	-0.02
Manhattan	MAAC	0.26	0.26	45.16	45.16	-0.03	-0.03
Massachusetts	A10	0.26	0.26	39.39	39.39	-0.05	-0.05
Colgate	Pat	0.25	0.25	58.06	58.06	0.04	0.04
Delaware	CAA	0.25	0.25	38.71	38.71	-0.06	-0.06
Holy Cross	Pat	0.24	0.24	38.71	38.71	-0.05	-0.05
Albany	AE	0.23	0.23	67.74	67.74	0.08	0.08
Bryant	NEC	0.23	0.23	9.68	9.68	-0.19	-0.19
Vermont	AE	0.22	0.22	78.79	78.79	0.13	0.13
Loyola MD	Pat	0.22	0.22	26.67	26.67	-0.10	-0.10
Rhode Island	A10	0.21	0.21	78.12	78.12	0.12	0.12
Fordham	A10	0.21	0.21	29.03	29.03	-0.09	-0.09
Iona	MAAC	0.21	0.21	60.61	60.61	0.04	0.04
Northeastern	CAA	0.19	0.19	68.75	68.75	0.07	0.07
Duquesne	A10	0.19	0.19	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Boston University	Pat	0.19	0.19	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.19	0.19	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.18	0.18	78.12	78.12	0.10	0.10
Bucknell	Pat	0.18	0.18	73.53	73.53	0.09	0.09
Army	Pat	0.17	0.17	41.38	41.38	-0.03	-0.03
Connecticut	Amer	0.16	0.16	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Marist	MAAC	0.16	0.16	19.35	19.35	-0.10	-0.10
Akron	MAC	0.16	0.16	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
American	Pat	0.16	0.16	20.00	20.00	-0.10	-0.10
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.15	0.15	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
George Mason	A10	0.15	0.15	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.15	0.15	58.62	58.62	0.03	0.03
Boston College	ACC	0.15	0.15	55.88	55.88	0.02	0.02
Maine	AE	0.15	0.15	13.33	13.33	-0.11	-0.11
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.14	0.14	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Canisius	MAAC	0.14	0.14	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.13	0.13	26.67	26.67	-0.06	-0.06
Providence	BE	0.13	0.13	61.76	61.76	0.03	0.03
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.13	0.13	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.13	0.13	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.13	0.13	24.24	24.24	-0.07	-0.07
Drexel	CAA	0.13	0.13	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Central Michigan	MAC	0.13	0.13	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.13	0.13	60.00	60.00	0.03	0.03
Butler	BE	0.13	0.13	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Ball St.	MAC	0.13	0.13	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
VCU	A10	0.13	0.13	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Creighton	BE	0.13	0.13	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Saint Louis	A10	0.13	0.13	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Stony Brook	AE	0.12	0.12	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Longwood	BSth	0.12	0.12	13.33	13.33	-0.09	-0.09
UMass Lowell	AE	0.12	0.12	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Auburn	SEC	0.11	0.11	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Miami FL	ACC	0.11	0.11	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
Kentucky	SEC	0.11	0.11	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.11	0.11	84.85	84.85	0.07	0.07
Wisconsin	B10	0.11	0.11	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.11	0.11	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Wichita St.	Amer	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Buffalo	MAC	0.10	0.10	75.76	75.76	0.05	0.05
Western Michigan	MAC	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Ohio	MAC	0.10	0.10	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.10	0.10	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
Siena	MAAC	0.10	0.10	25.00	25.00	-0.05	-0.05
Marquette	BE	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.09	0.09	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
NJIT	ASun	0.09	0.09	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.09	0.09	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.09	0.09	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.09	0.09	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.09	0.09	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.09	0.09	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
New Hampshire	AE	0.09	0.09	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
Syracuse	ACC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Hawaii	BW	0.08	0.08	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Chicago St.	WAC	0.08	0.08	3.33	3.33	-0.08	-0.08
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.08	0.08	62.07	62.07	0.02	0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.08	0.08	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.08	0.08	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
TCU	B12	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
William & Mary	CAA	0.08	0.08	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Wofford	SC	0.08	0.08	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.08	0.08	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.08	0.08	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	15.62	15.62	-0.05	-0.05
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.08	0.08	16.67	16.67	-0.05	-0.05
Bowling Green	MAC	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Davidson	A10	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Richmond	A10	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	Amer	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Houston	Amer	0.07	0.07	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
DePaul	BE	0.07	0.07	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
St. John's	BE	0.07	0.07	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Notre Dame	ACC	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.06	0.06	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
BYU	WCC	0.06	0.06	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Cal Poly	BW	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.06	0.06	76.67	76.67	0.03	0.03
USC	P12	0.06	0.06	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	83.33	83.33	0.04	0.04
Seattle	WAC	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Utah Valley	WAC	0.06	0.06	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Georgia Southern	SB	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
College of Charleston	CAA	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Elon	CAA	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
UMBC	AE	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
East Carolina	Amer	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Oakland	Horz	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
South Florida	Amer	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Wagner	NEC	0.05	0.05	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Cincinnati	Amer	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Tulsa	Amer	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
UCF	Amer	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Xavier	BE	0.05	0.05	84.85	84.85	0.03	0.03
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.03	0.03	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.03	0.03	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
USC Upstate	ASun	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Green Bay	Horz	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Milwaukee	Horz	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Troy	SB	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Denver	Sum	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Georgia St.	SB	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Lipscomb	ASun	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
UTEP	CUSA	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.03	0.03	93.94	93.94	0.02	0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Memphis	Amer	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Mercer	SC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
SMU	Amer	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Washington St.	P12	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.02	0.02	32.35	32.35	-0.01	-0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.02	0.02	20.00	20.00	-0.01	-0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas	B12	0.02	0.02	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.02	0.02	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.02	0.02	82.35	82.35	0.02	0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.02	0.02	44.12	44.12	-0.00	-0.00
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.02	0.02	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.02	0.02	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.02	0.02	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01