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Through games of Jan 21, 2018.


Penn

Conference:Ivy
Expected RPI:172.9
Current RPI:185
Expected SOS:284
Current SOS:294
Current Record:11-6
Expected Record:18-11
Current Conf Record:3-0
Expected Conf Record:10-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-3
Current OOC Record:8-6
Expected OOC Record:9-6
Expected OOC RPI:181
Expected OOC SOS:249



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-696.90.17%
22-7111.31.45%
21-8127.45.46%
20-9144.114.25%
19-10160.221.72%
18-11176.424.01%
17-12192.118.08%
16-13207.39.86%
15-14221.53.82%
14-15235.20.98%
13-16251.00.18%
12-17268.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Penn.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Fairfield (218.1)MAACA80-72L0%0.0
11-13La Salle (182.0)A10H71-75L0%0.0
11-15Navy (220.0)PatH66-45W100%0.0
11-20Northern Illinois (225.3)MACN80-93W100%0.0
11-21Towson (90.1)CAAN79-71L0%0.0
11-22UMKC (262.9)WACN68-65W100%0.0
11-25Monmouth (173.4)MAACA96-101W100%0.0
11-29Villanova (1.9)BEA90-62L0%0.0
12-4Howard (331.8)MEACA68-81W100%0.0
12-6Lafayette (311.6)PatA68-73W100%0.0
12-9Dayton (111.9)A10A70-78W100%0.0
12-27Delaware St. (350.3)MEACH105-52W100%0.0
12-29Toledo (70.4)MACH72-85L0%0.0
1-6Princeton (140.5)IvyH76-70W100%0.0
1-12Cornell (280.4)IvyH69-61W100%0.0
1-13Columbia (278.6)IvyH77-71W100%0.0
1-20Temple (61.5)AmerH51-60L0%0.0
1-27Saint Joseph's (150.4)A10H0-053%0.8
2-2Brown (260.6)IvyH0-081%9.9
2-3Yale (202.5)IvyH0-066%4.5
2-6Princeton (140.5)IvyA0-030%-5.9
2-9Dartmouth (318.5)IvyA0-070%5.7
2-10Harvard (178.0)IvyA0-040%-2.8
2-16Columbia (278.6)IvyA0-054%1.1
2-17Cornell (280.4)IvyA0-071%6.2
2-23Dartmouth (318.5)IvyH0-086%12.1
2-24Harvard (178.0)IvyH0-063%3.6
3-2Yale (202.5)IvyA0-043%-1.9
3-3Brown (260.6)IvyA0-062%3.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Penn's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Penn's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Penn.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
PennIvy26.3826.3362.3563.006.526.85
PrincetonIvy3.304.3156.2562.150.411.05
CornellIvy3.294.2735.7134.80-0.94-1.30
ColumbiaIvy3.284.2721.4333.03-1.87-1.45
YaleIvy0.084.2541.1847.71-0.01-0.20
HarvardIvy0.004.2537.5046.540.00-0.29
BrownIvy0.004.2150.0046.560.00-0.29
DartmouthIvy0.004.2121.4326.700.00-1.96
Saint Joseph'sA100.402.0250.0051.800.000.07
LafayettePat3.281.9423.5328.48-1.73-0.83
VillanovaBE3.271.9194.4489.982.911.52
MonmouthMAAC3.031.9029.4142.44-1.25-0.29
La SalleA103.171.9036.8440.78-0.84-0.35
ToledoMAC3.041.8864.7166.590.890.62
NavyPat3.121.8563.1657.060.820.26
TempleAmer3.091.8150.0050.070.000.00
FairfieldMAAC2.941.7835.2942.08-0.87-0.28
Northern IllinoisMAC2.941.7843.7540.56-0.37-0.34
DaytonA102.941.7850.0052.700.000.10
Delaware St.MEAC2.941.750.009.41-2.94-1.42
HowardMEAC2.941.7511.1128.27-2.29-0.76
TowsonCAA3.011.7561.1164.750.670.52
UMKCWAC2.941.7222.2225.67-1.63-0.84
QuinnipiacMAAC0.260.3235.0031.83-0.08-0.12
LehighPat0.320.2738.8944.75-0.07-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.490.2750.0050.860.000.00
George WashingtonA100.240.2745.0043.48-0.02-0.03
ColgatePat0.350.2550.0051.030.000.01
Loyola MDPat0.310.2422.2228.66-0.17-0.10
DelawareCAA0.250.2447.3743.02-0.01-0.03
MassachusettsA100.150.2350.0046.810.00-0.01
AlbanyAE0.180.2271.4370.240.080.09
BryantNEC0.070.229.5217.12-0.06-0.15
DuquesneA100.330.2170.0058.090.130.03
Holy CrossPat0.230.2126.3230.49-0.11-0.08
Rhode IslandA100.150.2183.3381.430.100.13
BucknellPat0.240.2061.9068.020.060.07
FordhamA100.070.2031.5829.06-0.03-0.09
NortheasternCAA0.100.1963.1663.220.030.05
VermontAE0.000.1975.0077.850.000.10
ArmyPat0.250.1961.1160.440.060.04
NiagaraMAAC0.260.1857.1453.050.040.01
Boston UniversityPat0.070.1850.0053.260.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.260.1852.6347.390.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.330.1847.0644.91-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.160.1860.0064.110.030.05
St. BonaventureA100.080.1766.6768.730.030.06
MaineAE0.100.1610.5314.83-0.08-0.11
Boston CollegeACC0.170.1665.0054.670.050.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.160.1542.1146.00-0.03-0.01
MaristMAAC0.080.1521.0522.02-0.05-0.09
CanisiusMAAC0.080.1561.9063.140.020.04
AmericanPat0.230.1526.3228.11-0.11-0.07
Central MichiganMAC0.160.1562.5058.690.040.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.150.1529.4139.63-0.06-0.03
DrexelCAA0.310.1530.0030.99-0.12-0.06
Eastern MichiganMAC0.160.1546.6746.97-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.320.1542.1146.09-0.05-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.080.1561.1158.700.020.03
George MasonA100.080.1445.0041.30-0.01-0.03
HofstraCAA0.310.1457.8959.490.050.03
Saint LouisA100.070.1447.3746.92-0.00-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.200.1316.6716.16-0.13-0.09
Stony BrookAE0.100.1336.8445.21-0.03-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.100.1333.3333.87-0.03-0.04
AuburnSEC0.250.1289.4777.000.200.07
ProvidenceBE0.000.1270.0060.470.000.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.150.1210.0019.63-0.12-0.07
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.1255.5656.740.010.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.150.1243.7554.11-0.020.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.150.1227.7831.71-0.07-0.04
Miami FLACC0.230.1277.7870.480.130.05
ButlerBE0.160.1266.6763.070.050.03
Old DominionCUSA0.310.1278.9576.750.180.06
RiderMAAC0.080.1265.0065.320.020.04
SienaMAAC0.000.1228.5729.940.00-0.05
Western MichiganMAC0.080.1252.9452.230.000.01
OhioMAC0.250.1247.0648.41-0.01-0.00
CreightonBE0.000.1275.0070.700.000.05
VCUA100.150.1160.0059.700.030.02
NJITASun0.080.1038.8942.61-0.02-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.080.1030.0033.47-0.03-0.03
BinghamtonAE0.180.1042.1139.94-0.03-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.090.1052.3848.530.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.080.1040.0042.52-0.02-0.01
New HampshireAE0.080.1033.3340.08-0.03-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.1033.3335.21-0.02-0.03
SyracuseACC0.180.1068.4261.230.070.02
NorthwesternB100.070.0955.0050.330.010.00
Chicago St.WAC0.090.090.003.07-0.09-0.09
HawaiiBW0.160.0968.7563.990.060.03
KentuckySEC0.080.0973.6867.970.040.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0990.4888.960.060.07
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0915.7920.910.00-0.05
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.230.0922.2227.33-0.13-0.04
Wichita St.Amer0.080.0978.9577.380.040.05
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.0958.8249.760.02-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.170.0972.2274.930.070.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.099.5217.90-0.06-0.06
PittsburghACC0.230.0940.0030.87-0.05-0.03
WisconsinB100.080.0950.0046.300.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.160.0978.9572.990.090.04
DePaulBE0.150.0942.1134.31-0.02-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.150.0968.4254.070.060.01
MarquetteBE0.160.0968.4260.550.060.02
DavidsonA100.000.0958.8261.450.000.02
RichmondA100.150.0931.5834.36-0.06-0.03
Seton HallBE0.080.0875.0067.890.040.03
St. John'sBE0.080.0847.3742.16-0.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0763.1661.020.000.01
Penn St.B100.100.0761.9055.760.020.01
BYUWCC0.090.0680.9576.240.050.03
Cal PolyBW0.090.0623.5328.21-0.05-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0629.4133.20-0.03-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0656.2556.830.000.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.090.0623.5332.57-0.05-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.080.0670.0071.230.030.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.090.0672.2274.710.040.03
MinnesotaB100.000.0663.6457.630.000.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0683.3384.240.000.04
SeattleWAC0.080.0657.8954.500.010.01
USCP120.090.0671.4368.280.040.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.080.0645.0045.03-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.080.0666.6766.020.030.02
WoffordSC0.000.0668.7563.690.000.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.150.0666.6765.370.050.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.0612.5025.450.00-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.150.0650.0052.460.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.150.0666.6765.640.050.02
ElonCAA0.080.0652.6351.080.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.160.0637.5037.68-0.04-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0652.6343.110.00-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0625.0028.240.00-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0616.6724.910.00-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0618.7536.820.00-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0627.7834.50-0.03-0.02
TCUB120.000.0673.6865.600.000.02
UMBCAE0.150.0655.5655.540.020.01
William & MaryCAA0.080.0664.7159.990.020.01
East CarolinaAmer0.080.0642.1132.47-0.01-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.170.0644.4444.92-0.02-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0647.0641.410.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.160.0661.9065.160.040.02
South FloridaAmer0.080.0635.0026.12-0.02-0.03
WagnerNEC0.160.0664.7164.570.050.02
Wright St.Horz0.160.0668.4269.250.060.02
GonzagaWCC0.150.0680.9583.260.100.04
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0689.4785.550.060.04
TulaneAmer0.080.0663.1657.890.020.01
TulsaAmer0.080.0655.0053.320.010.00
UCFAmer0.080.0668.4260.860.030.01
XavierBE0.080.0685.7180.080.060.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.080.037.6920.09-0.07-0.02
Kansas St.B120.080.0373.6862.720.040.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.0378.9574.190.040.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0365.0056.340.020.00
South DakotaSum0.080.0373.6872.380.040.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0372.2272.980.030.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0342.1143.51-0.01-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0326.3231.50-0.04-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.080.0311.1118.00-0.06-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0327.7831.11-0.03-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.080.0377.7879.150.040.02
Fort WayneSum0.080.0352.6351.690.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.080.0338.8940.78-0.02-0.01
Green BayHorz0.090.0325.0027.94-0.04-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.080.0320.0041.73-0.05-0.00
IndianaB100.080.0357.8950.710.010.00
IowaB100.090.0347.6244.02-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.090.0361.1147.220.02-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0333.3333.77-0.03-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0370.0068.220.030.01
LibertyBSth0.080.0350.0054.190.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.090.0345.0047.07-0.01-0.00
NebraskaB100.080.0366.6759.820.030.01
PurdueB100.080.0390.4888.370.070.02
TroySB0.080.0335.2942.76-0.02-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.080.0333.3334.10-0.03-0.01
ClemsonACC0.080.0384.2173.240.050.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0320.0023.34-0.05-0.02
DenverSum0.070.0333.3336.48-0.02-0.01
DetroitHorz0.080.0321.0525.97-0.05-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0357.8966.260.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0366.6755.940.030.00
Georgia St.SB0.080.0366.6765.520.030.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0338.8943.43-0.02-0.00
KansasB120.080.0384.2179.750.060.02
LipscombASun0.070.0352.9459.340.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.080.0368.4263.650.030.01
MemphisAmer0.080.0365.0058.540.020.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0372.2258.920.030.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0316.6724.450.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.080.0370.0070.570.030.01
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0361.1151.910.020.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0357.8953.190.010.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0321.0544.26-0.05-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.080.0352.6358.590.000.00
VirginiaACC0.080.0394.7486.140.070.02
Washington St.P120.000.0347.3741.440.00-0.00
MercerSC0.070.0344.4454.86-0.010.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.0350.0051.380.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0344.4450.08-0.010.00
South AlabamaSB0.070.0350.0045.870.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.080.0372.2268.930.030.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0368.4270.810.030.01