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Through games of Feb 22, 2017.


Penn

Conference:Ivy
Expected RPI:190.3
Current RPI:184
Expected SOS:210
Current SOS:169
Current Record:11-12
Expected Record:14-13
Current Conf Record:4-6
Expected Conf Record:7-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-4
Current OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:146
Expected OOC SOS:185



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-12164.715.70%
14-13183.639.11%
13-14201.032.96%
12-15214.911.14%
11-16227.11.08%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Penn.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Robert Morris (260.7)NECA50-67W100%0.0
11-19Miami FL (37.7)ACCA74-62L0%0.0
11-22Central Connecticut (345.1)NECA65-87W100%0.0
11-26Navy (208.6)PatA70-68L0%0.0
11-29Villanova (3.2)BEH57-82L0%0.0
12-3Temple (124.0)AmerA70-62L0%0.0
12-7Lafayette (322.7)PatH81-52W100%0.0
12-10George Mason (108.6)A10H60-79L0%0.0
12-12UCF (93.7)AmerA49-58W100%0.0
12-28Drexel (267.4)CAAH75-67W100%0.0
12-30Fairfield (187.9)MAACH74-68W100%0.0
1-7Princeton (56.6)IvyA61-52L0%0.0
1-13Yale (145.7)IvyH60-68L0%0.0
1-14Brown (293.8)IvyH70-82L0%0.0
1-21Saint Joseph's (170.3)A10N71-78L0%0.0
1-25La Salle (108.2)A10A74-77W100%0.0
2-3Harvard (125.0)IvyA69-59L0%0.0
2-4Dartmouth (304.1)IvyA74-71L0%0.0
2-7Princeton (56.6)IvyH49-64L0%0.0
2-10Columbia (248.6)IvyH70-62W100%0.0
2-12Cornell (272.4)IvyH82-63W100%0.0
2-17Brown (293.8)IvyA72-96W100%0.0
2-19Yale (145.7)IvyA55-71W100%0.0
2-24Cornell (272.4)IvyA0-066%4.4
2-25Columbia (248.6)IvyA0-053%0.7
3-3Dartmouth (304.1)IvyH0-088%12.4
3-4Harvard (125.0)IvyH0-052%0.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Penn's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Penn's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Penn.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
PennIvy26.2826.3849.5751.82-0.230.96
ColumbiaIvy2.874.6342.8642.01-0.41-0.74
PrincetonIvy5.004.6070.0071.872.002.01
YaleIvy5.004.6060.0061.071.001.02
CornellIvy2.804.5826.0925.95-1.34-2.20
BrownIvy4.984.5836.3636.65-1.36-1.22
DartmouthIvy2.804.5822.7323.55-1.52-2.42
HarvardIvy2.754.5365.0064.570.821.32
Saint Joseph'sA102.602.2134.6236.45-0.80-0.60
LafayettePat2.512.1426.9226.58-1.16-1.00
TempleAmer2.472.0846.4348.96-0.18-0.04
Central ConnecticutNEC2.442.0519.2320.72-1.50-1.20
La SalleA102.412.0456.0056.770.290.28
VillanovaBE2.372.0189.2988.391.861.54
NavyPat2.301.9948.1546.94-0.09-0.12
DrexelCAA2.301.9529.6330.07-0.94-0.78
UCFAmer2.291.9466.6766.020.760.62
Miami FLACC2.221.9269.2366.110.860.62
FairfieldMAAC2.221.9253.8552.960.170.11
Robert MorrisNEC2.251.9239.2940.96-0.48-0.35
George MasonA102.261.9161.5460.140.520.39
BryantNEC0.440.4435.7137.15-0.13-0.11
LehighPat0.440.3359.2660.160.080.07
MassachusettsA100.330.3248.1547.57-0.01-0.02
BucknellPat0.340.2973.3373.730.160.14
Rhode IslandA100.300.2966.6766.780.100.10
George WashingtonA100.290.2951.8551.210.010.01
AlbanyAE0.280.2758.6259.810.050.05
ColgatePat0.210.2731.0332.74-0.08-0.09
HoustonAmer0.250.2670.3769.130.100.10
FordhamA100.250.2644.4444.02-0.03-0.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.300.2644.8343.96-0.03-0.03
MaineAE0.230.2417.2417.48-0.15-0.15
HartfordAE0.260.2330.0029.22-0.11-0.10
ArmyPat0.250.2339.2938.46-0.05-0.05
MonmouthMAAC0.260.2382.7681.880.170.15
QuinnipiacMAAC0.260.2335.7136.66-0.07-0.06
St. Francis NYNEC0.250.2210.7111.38-0.19-0.17
VermontAE0.200.2182.7682.940.130.14
Boston CollegeACC0.180.2132.1430.40-0.06-0.08
Holy CrossPat0.210.2050.0050.080.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.170.2050.0048.510.00-0.01
MaristMAAC0.220.2024.1424.50-0.11-0.10
VCUA100.220.2082.1479.370.140.11
LIU BrooklynNEC0.200.1960.7158.720.040.03
CincinnatiAmer0.200.1988.8987.450.160.14
DelawareCAA0.220.1637.0435.10-0.06-0.05
Seton HallBE0.160.1662.9661.760.040.04
Loyola MDPat0.200.1648.1549.03-0.01-0.00
VirginiaACC0.210.1666.6767.600.070.06
NiagaraMAAC0.170.1631.0331.60-0.06-0.06
AmericanPat0.200.1625.0025.07-0.10-0.08
Saint LouisA100.120.1632.1431.02-0.04-0.06
WagnerNEC0.200.1652.0053.230.010.01
DuquesneA100.120.1635.7134.58-0.03-0.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.200.1551.7253.710.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.150.1571.4372.700.070.07
RichmondA100.200.1559.2659.930.040.03
HowardMEAC0.100.1519.2321.44-0.06-0.08
Stony BrookAE0.140.1460.7159.030.030.02
HofstraCAA0.130.1342.8642.57-0.02-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.160.1353.5753.370.010.01
SienaMAAC0.130.1348.2848.54-0.00-0.00
NJITASun0.170.1329.6330.60-0.07-0.05
ProvidenceBE0.170.1360.7160.840.040.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.160.1251.7249.530.01-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.160.1262.9663.390.040.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.120.1238.4638.56-0.03-0.03
St. Francis PANEC0.160.1242.3143.88-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.160.1264.2961.960.040.03
ConnecticutAmer0.150.1250.0049.270.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.150.1246.4343.89-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.150.1266.6763.170.050.03
South FloridaAmer0.080.1226.9225.66-0.04-0.06
DePaulBE0.150.1232.1430.89-0.05-0.05
StanfordP120.090.1050.0047.370.00-0.01
PittsburghACC0.140.1053.5750.750.010.00
HamptonMEAC0.140.1041.6743.49-0.02-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.090.1016.0016.19-0.06-0.07
New HampshireAE0.080.1057.6958.050.010.02
BinghamtonAE0.090.1033.3334.84-0.03-0.03
UMass LowellAE0.090.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
SyracuseACC0.090.1058.6257.910.010.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.120.1057.1457.270.020.01
RiderMAAC0.120.0953.3353.310.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.120.0933.3332.68-0.04-0.03
DavidsonA100.120.0953.8552.600.010.00
DaytonA100.120.0980.7779.440.080.06
RutgersB100.120.0942.8642.33-0.02-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.080.0925.0026.38-0.04-0.04
GeorgetownBE0.080.0950.0049.130.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.080.0978.5776.210.040.05
TulsaAmer0.120.0946.1547.81-0.01-0.00
SMUAmer0.110.0985.7185.540.080.06
TulaneAmer0.080.0918.5218.47-0.05-0.06
BYUWCC0.100.0765.5264.140.030.02
Cal PolyBW0.100.0725.0027.75-0.05-0.03
CaliforniaP120.100.0766.6766.210.030.02
HawaiiBW0.100.0748.0047.45-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.100.0757.6957.630.020.01
WashingtonP120.100.0733.3332.52-0.03-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0769.5771.400.020.03
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0761.5462.870.010.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.0744.0045.06-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0740.7442.17-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.050.0753.8552.820.000.00
USCP120.050.0777.7875.870.030.03
WyomingMWC0.050.0753.8553.510.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.040.0658.6258.690.010.01
IonaMAAC0.080.0662.0762.320.020.02
High PointBSth0.080.0644.0045.26-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.080.0640.7440.78-0.02-0.01
DukeACC0.040.0678.5776.170.020.03
ElonCAA0.080.0655.5656.900.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0681.4881.510.050.04
Virginia TechACC0.040.0670.3769.250.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.080.0652.0053.050.000.00
Notre DameACC0.080.0675.0074.370.040.03
Wake ForestACC0.080.0657.1455.800.010.01
ButlerBE0.070.0678.5777.620.040.03
CreightonBE0.040.0677.7875.390.020.03
MarquetteBE0.070.0662.9661.410.020.01
St. John'sBE0.070.0642.8642.05-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.070.0664.2964.300.020.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.040.0373.0873.880.020.02
FurmanSC0.040.0364.2964.510.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.040.0365.3864.780.010.01
Ohio St.B100.040.0353.5752.340.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.040.0359.2662.730.010.01
UMBCAE0.040.0361.5460.470.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.040.0369.2368.790.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.040.0320.0022.21-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.040.0334.4834.78-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.040.0351.8553.680.000.00
FloridaSEC0.040.0382.1480.600.030.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.040.0330.4331.13-0.02-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.040.0355.5652.750.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.040.0382.1481.630.030.02
Iowa St.B120.040.0366.6764.750.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.040.0355.5655.100.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.040.0378.5778.520.020.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.040.0357.1457.070.010.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.040.0330.7733.71-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.040.0330.7729.92-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.040.0360.7159.870.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.040.0351.8550.690.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.040.0334.7833.41-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.040.0382.1480.660.030.02
North FloridaASun0.040.0330.7732.11-0.02-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.040.0325.0025.84-0.02-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.040.0348.1547.59-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.040.0350.0048.740.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.040.0330.7734.71-0.02-0.01
SeattleWAC0.040.0339.1337.81-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.040.0328.0029.86-0.02-0.01
StetsonASun0.040.0329.6328.76-0.02-0.01
ToledoMAC0.040.0348.1549.49-0.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.040.0322.2222.75-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.040.0344.4443.90-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.040.0350.0050.440.000.00
Kansas St.B120.040.0360.7159.890.010.01
OaklandHorz0.040.0374.0773.500.020.01
PurdueB100.040.0382.1480.780.020.02
West VirginiaB120.040.0378.5777.800.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.040.0342.3143.63-0.01-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.040.0332.1431.91-0.01-0.01