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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Harvard

Conference:Ivy
Expected RPI:224.3
Current RPI:294
Expected SOS:203
Current SOS:99
Current Record:0-4
Expected Record:11-14
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-4
Current OOC Record:0-4
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:253
Expected OOC SOS:154



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-786.50.02%
17-894.90.16%
16-9114.00.69%
15-10135.22.30%
14-11155.15.92%
13-12176.911.07%
12-13199.116.08%
11-14220.319.11%
10-15242.517.87%
9-16262.413.30%
8-17281.67.95%
7-18298.13.81%
6-19311.21.26%
5-20323.90.40%
4-21330.00.05%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Harvard.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Stanford (54.1)P12N80-70L0%0.0
11-22Holy Cross (183.0)PatH52-63L0%0.0
11-26Massachusetts (108.4)A10A70-66L0%0.0
11-29George Washington (176.1)A10H74-77L0%0.0
12-3Fordham (205.9)A10H0-059%2.9
12-6Northeastern (167.3)CAAH0-061%3.3
12-7Boston College (245.5)ACCA0-047%-0.8
12-23Houston (42.7)AmerA0-08%-17.1
12-30Howard (291.2)MEACH0-083%11.4
1-2Vermont (91.3)AEA0-025%-8.0
1-7Dartmouth (310.5)IvyA0-067%5.3
1-16Bryant (194.6)NECA0-051%0.2
1-21Dartmouth (310.5)IvyH0-083%11.5
1-27Cornell (260.9)IvyA0-059%2.9
1-28Columbia (253.3)IvyA0-051%0.5
2-3Penn (138.5)IvyH0-048%-0.7
2-4Princeton (95.0)IvyH0-038%-3.5
2-10Brown (272.3)IvyA0-057%2.3
2-11Yale (103.3)IvyA0-023%-8.9
2-17Columbia (253.3)IvyH0-071%6.6
2-18Cornell (260.9)IvyH0-077%9.0
2-24Yale (103.3)IvyH0-041%-2.8
2-25Brown (272.3)IvyH0-076%8.4
3-3Princeton (95.0)IvyA0-021%-9.7
3-4Penn (138.5)IvyA0-028%-6.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Harvard's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Harvard's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Harvard.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
HarvardIvy28.6126.410.0042.56-28.61-3.93
DartmouthIvy0.005.000.0023.35-0.00-2.66
CornellIvy0.004.9728.5730.55-0.00-1.93
YaleIvy0.004.9633.3363.81-0.001.37
BrownIvy0.004.9450.0043.120.00-0.68
ColumbiaIvy0.004.9342.8642.78-0.00-0.71
PennIvy0.004.9040.0057.65-0.000.75
PrincetonIvy0.004.8925.0063.42-0.001.31
BryantNEC0.002.2228.5750.23-0.000.01
VermontAE0.002.2262.5071.520.000.95
HowardMEAC0.002.110.0039.02-0.00-0.46
HoustonAmer0.002.1183.3375.820.001.09
NortheasternCAA0.002.1157.1448.550.00-0.06
George WashingtonA1012.502.1050.0042.300.00-0.32
MassachusettsA1013.392.1080.0056.688.040.28
Boston CollegeACC0.002.0750.0026.400.00-0.98
FordhamA100.002.0657.1443.790.00-0.26
Holy CrossPat13.542.0333.3345.94-4.51-0.16
StanfordP1212.502.0071.4357.645.360.31
AlbanyAE0.890.4050.0060.380.000.08
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.3950.0046.780.00-0.03
MaineAE0.000.3516.6725.61-0.00-0.17
Rhode IslandA100.000.3471.4370.330.000.14
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.3240.0037.65-0.00-0.08
LafayettePat0.000.2933.3331.87-0.00-0.11
Stony BrookAE0.000.2816.6733.82-0.00-0.09
George MasonA100.000.2757.1442.940.00-0.04
Miami FLACC0.780.2571.4365.740.330.08
HartfordAE0.000.2512.5022.55-0.00-0.14
NavyPat0.000.2528.5743.62-0.00-0.03
TempleAmer1.040.2571.4363.570.450.07
VCUA100.000.2485.7178.150.000.14
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.2442.8638.05-0.00-0.06
La SalleA100.000.2460.0051.780.000.01
LehighPat0.000.2233.3367.01-0.000.07
ColgatePat0.000.2220.0041.31-0.00-0.04
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.2116.6734.31-0.00-0.07
MaristMAAC0.000.2142.8635.68-0.00-0.06
New HampshireAE0.000.2150.0057.480.000.03
UCFAmer0.000.2183.3374.620.000.10
RichmondA100.000.2057.1448.600.00-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.890.1871.4371.570.380.08
FairfieldMAAC0.000.1883.3362.080.000.04
HofstraCAA0.000.1857.1440.550.00-0.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.1783.3357.990.000.03
UMass LowellAE1.040.1725.0040.81-0.52-0.03
SyracuseACC0.890.1766.6770.140.300.07
ProvidenceBE0.000.1771.4356.280.000.02
DavidsonA100.000.1683.3368.880.000.06
DuquesneA100.000.1637.5034.65-0.00-0.05
CaliforniaP120.000.1583.3363.610.000.04
DelawareCAA0.000.1440.0040.65-0.00-0.03
ArmyPat0.000.1433.3345.58-0.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.000.1475.0067.660.000.05
BinghamtonAE0.000.1442.8640.94-0.00-0.03
DrexelCAA0.000.1442.8636.82-0.00-0.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1425.0039.28-0.00-0.03
SienaMAAC0.890.1428.5750.51-0.380.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.1416.6737.09-0.00-0.04
CincinnatiAmer0.000.1485.7180.960.000.09
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.1416.6729.36-0.00-0.06
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.890.130.0034.23-0.89-0.04
Boston UniversityPat0.000.1350.0053.530.000.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.1366.6770.740.000.05
HamptonMEAC0.000.110.0034.18-0.00-0.04
Seton HallBE0.780.1171.4354.520.330.01
WashingtonP120.000.1157.1452.630.000.01
LibertyBSth0.000.1140.0050.71-0.000.00
PittsburghACC0.000.1185.7155.550.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.11100.0082.550.000.07
Old DominionCUSA0.000.1166.6765.810.000.03
USCP120.000.11100.0075.380.000.06
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.100.0024.32-0.00-0.05
SMUAmer0.000.1057.1469.300.000.04
ConnecticutAmer0.000.1033.3338.76-0.00-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.1020.0034.22-0.00-0.03
AmericanPat0.000.1016.6735.65-0.00-0.03
TowsonCAA0.000.1050.0054.490.000.01
WagnerNEC1.040.1033.3353.85-0.350.01
DaytonA100.000.1066.6772.440.000.04
Notre DameACC0.000.10100.0075.010.000.05
Saint LouisA100.000.1033.3326.75-0.00-0.05
BYUWCC0.000.0871.4368.660.000.03
Cal PolyBW0.000.0833.3335.92-0.00-0.02
HawaiiBW0.000.0850.0050.940.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0750.0059.670.000.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0725.0024.66-0.00-0.04
TroySB0.000.0733.3332.23-0.00-0.03
VillanovaBE0.000.07100.0083.120.000.05
WyomingMWC0.000.0760.0048.590.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0716.6727.03-0.00-0.03
NJITASun0.000.0742.8650.32-0.000.00
ArizonaP120.000.0785.7170.990.000.03
Arizona St.P120.000.0757.1436.050.00-0.02
ColoradoP120.000.0771.4359.850.000.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.070.0023.46-0.00-0.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0766.6775.370.000.03
OregonP120.000.0771.4366.730.000.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0728.5723.76-0.00-0.04
UtahP120.000.0775.0061.040.000.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.890.070.0027.77-0.89-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0762.5056.500.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0775.0047.510.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.000.0783.3358.030.000.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.070.0028.15-0.00-0.03
MemphisAmer0.000.0785.7159.740.000.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0712.5048.98-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0740.0043.86-0.00-0.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0714.2926.81-0.00-0.03
TulsaAmer0.000.0760.0039.200.00-0.01
UMBCAE0.000.0780.0055.340.000.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0783.3377.170.000.04
William & MaryCAA0.000.0740.0055.44-0.000.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0750.0047.990.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.890.07100.0080.780.890.04
South FloridaAmer0.000.0766.6732.240.00-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0685.7162.410.000.02
Loyola MDPat0.000.0633.3340.49-0.00-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0685.7162.920.000.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.0671.4352.370.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0316.6731.91-0.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.780.0316.6743.29-0.52-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.780.0383.3361.490.520.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0018.22-0.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0316.6736.35-0.00-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0320.0048.38-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.0350.0047.560.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.000.0340.0050.88-0.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.780.0333.3346.81-0.26-0.00
IUPUISum0.000.0328.5747.72-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0357.1447.320.00-0.00
KansasB120.000.0385.7176.170.000.02
MarquetteBE0.000.0371.4363.090.000.01
MarylandB100.000.0385.7156.490.000.00
MichiganB100.000.0371.4366.530.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.030.0038.35-0.00-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.780.03100.0089.040.780.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.030.0024.19-0.00-0.02
UCLAP120.000.03100.0083.550.000.02
Washington St.P120.000.0350.0036.820.00-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.780.0320.0054.94-0.470.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.0383.3362.840.000.01
ButlerBE0.000.03100.0075.690.000.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0383.3380.700.000.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0350.0055.850.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0366.6751.460.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.000.03100.0091.060.000.03
Kent St.MAC0.000.0350.0051.820.000.00
LipscombASun0.000.0314.2933.07-0.00-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0320.0032.60-0.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.0371.4349.770.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0333.3338.19-0.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0350.0061.590.000.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0371.4366.220.000.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0383.3378.430.000.02
OhioMAC0.000.0380.0068.320.000.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0316.6732.62-0.00-0.01
RutgersB100.000.0383.3344.770.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0360.0052.760.000.00
South DakotaSum0.000.0357.1447.220.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.000.0328.5733.92-0.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0357.1464.940.000.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0325.0024.28-0.00-0.02
WoffordSC0.000.030.0033.58-0.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.890.030.0024.25-0.89-0.02
AuburnSEC0.000.0383.3355.200.000.00
ClemsonACC0.000.0366.6753.460.000.00
DukeACC0.000.0387.5078.680.000.02
GeorgiaSEC0.890.0366.6754.380.300.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0360.0067.410.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0366.6739.720.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0385.7155.890.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0328.5730.29-0.00-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.0385.7175.950.000.02
MississippiSEC1.040.0371.4346.010.45-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0342.8637.25-0.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0385.7180.010.000.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0371.4350.570.000.00
PacificWCC0.000.0350.0049.010.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.890.0362.5043.960.22-0.00
UABCUSA0.890.0357.1461.940.130.01