live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Harvard

Conference:Ivy
Expected RPI:193.0
Current RPI:193
Expected SOS:152
Current SOS:152
Current Record:12-16
Expected Record:12-16
Current Conf Record:6-8
Expected Conf Record:6-8
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-5
Current OOC Record:6-8
Expected OOC Record:6-8
Expected OOC RPI:169
Expected OOC SOS:136



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-16193.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Harvard.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Providence (40.0)BEA76-64L0%0.0
11-17Massachusetts (171.0)A10H63-69L0%0.0
11-22Boston College (250.0)ACCA69-56L0%0.0
11-25Bryant (320.0)NECH80-45W100%0.0
11-29Holy Cross (248.0)PatA50-49L0%0.0
12-2Northeastern (109.0)CAAA80-71L0%0.0
12-5Kansas (1.0)B12A75-69L0%0.0
12-8Boston University (196.0)PatA69-75W100%0.0
12-22BYU (76.0)WCCN85-82W100%0.0
12-23Auburn (175.0)SECN69-51W100%0.0
12-25Oklahoma (6.0)B12N83-71L0%0.0
12-31Wofford (199.0)SCH77-57W100%0.0
1-3Vermont (126.0)AEH62-65L0%0.0
1-9Dartmouth (284.0)IvyH77-70W100%0.0
1-16Howard (328.0)MEACA61-69W100%0.0
1-23Dartmouth (284.0)IvyA63-50L0%0.0
1-29Cornell (244.0)IvyH65-77L0%0.0
1-30Columbia (132.0)IvyH54-55L0%0.0
2-5Princeton (39.0)IvyA83-62L0%0.0
2-6Penn (283.0)IvyA67-57L0%0.0
2-12Brown (312.0)IvyH79-73W100%0.0
2-13Yale (44.0)IvyH55-67L0%0.0
2-19Columbia (132.0)IvyA90-76L0%0.0
2-20Cornell (244.0)IvyA74-76W100%0.0
2-26Yale (44.0)IvyA59-50L0%0.0
2-27Brown (312.0)IvyA52-61W100%0.0
3-4Princeton (39.0)IvyH73-71W100%0.0
3-5Penn (283.0)IvyH74-56W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Harvard's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Harvard's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Harvard.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
HarvardIvy26.3126.3144.4444.44-2.92-2.92
BrownIvy4.444.4428.0028.00-1.95-1.95
ColumbiaIvy4.424.4262.9662.961.151.15
DartmouthIvy4.414.4132.0032.00-1.59-1.59
YaleIvy4.414.4176.0076.002.292.29
CornellIvy4.394.3932.0032.00-1.58-1.58
PennIvy4.364.3636.0036.00-1.22-1.22
PrincetonIvy4.364.3680.0080.002.612.61
BryantNEC2.012.0124.1424.14-1.04-1.04
VermontAE1.951.9559.3859.380.360.36
HowardMEAC1.941.9434.4834.48-0.60-0.60
ProvidenceBE1.941.9468.7568.750.730.73
Holy CrossPat1.941.9440.6240.62-0.36-0.36
Boston UniversityPat1.901.9056.6756.670.250.25
MassachusettsA101.871.8741.9441.94-0.30-0.30
KansasB121.871.8787.5087.501.401.40
WoffordSC1.851.8544.8344.83-0.19-0.19
NortheasternCAA1.841.8451.6151.610.060.06
OklahomaB121.841.8477.4277.421.011.01
Boston CollegeACC1.811.8119.3519.35-1.11-1.11
AuburnSEC1.791.7936.6736.67-0.48-0.48
BYUWCC1.791.7970.9770.970.750.75
New HampshireAE0.330.3358.6258.620.060.06
LafayettePat0.310.3120.0020.00-0.19-0.19
Central ConnecticutNEC0.290.2913.7913.79-0.21-0.21
MaineAE0.270.2726.6726.67-0.13-0.13
BucknellPat0.270.2755.1755.170.030.03
LehighPat0.270.2751.6151.610.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.250.2579.4179.410.150.15
AlbanyAE0.240.2474.1974.190.120.12
HartfordAE0.240.2428.1228.12-0.11-0.11
Stony BrookAE0.240.2480.0080.000.140.14
BinghamtonAE0.220.2226.6726.67-0.10-0.10
Rhode IslandA100.200.2053.1253.120.010.01
Kansas St.B120.200.2051.5251.520.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.200.2046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.190.1959.3859.380.040.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.190.1931.2531.25-0.07-0.07
MaristMAAC0.190.1923.3323.33-0.10-0.10
NJITASun0.180.1853.3353.330.010.01
ColgatePat0.180.1841.3841.38-0.03-0.03
NavyPat0.180.1856.2556.250.020.02
UMass LowellAE0.180.1835.7135.71-0.05-0.05
VillanovaBE0.180.1885.2985.290.120.12
ArmyPat0.170.1758.0658.060.030.03
Loyola MDPat0.170.1730.0030.00-0.07-0.07
West VirginiaB120.160.1676.4776.470.090.09
CanisiusMAAC0.160.1642.4242.42-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.150.1551.6151.610.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.150.1540.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.150.1529.0329.03-0.06-0.06
GeorgetownBE0.150.1545.4545.45-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.150.1523.3323.33-0.08-0.08
AmericanPat0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.140.1437.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Iowa St.B120.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
BaylorB120.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
SMUAmer0.130.1383.3383.330.090.09
LongwoodBSth0.130.1323.3323.33-0.07-0.07
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.130.1366.6766.670.040.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
Georgia TechACC0.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
SienaMAAC0.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
DrexelCAA0.120.1220.0020.00-0.07-0.07
La SalleA100.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
Miami FLACC0.120.1278.1278.120.070.07
SyracuseACC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
Seton HallBE0.120.1275.7675.760.060.06
VanderbiltSEC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
ClemsonACC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
CreightonBE0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
Michigan St.B100.110.1185.2985.290.080.08
TCUB120.110.1136.3636.36-0.03-0.03
TexasB120.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
Texas TechB120.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.1016.6716.67-0.06-0.06
George MasonA100.090.0934.3834.38-0.03-0.03
LipscombASun0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
PittsburghACC0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
IllinoisB100.090.0944.1244.12-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.090.0921.8821.88-0.05-0.05
RiderMAAC0.090.0939.3939.39-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.090.0983.3383.330.060.06
TennesseeSEC0.090.0944.1244.12-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.090.0982.3582.350.060.06
William & MaryCAA0.090.0962.0762.070.020.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
MississippiSEC0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
KentuckySEC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
UMBCAE0.080.0821.8821.88-0.05-0.05
FordhamA100.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.080.0878.1278.120.050.05
TowsonCAA0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0876.6776.670.040.04
QuinnipiacMAAC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
XavierBE0.080.0884.3884.380.060.06
St. BonaventureA100.080.0873.3373.330.040.04
ButlerBE0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0772.4172.410.030.03
LibertyBSth0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
MarylandB100.070.0775.0075.000.030.03
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0779.4179.410.040.04
StanfordP120.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
USCP120.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
WashingtonP120.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.060.0662.5062.500.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0684.3884.380.040.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
FurmanSC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
VMISC0.060.0622.2222.22-0.03-0.03
WagnerNEC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0657.6957.690.010.01
MissouriSEC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
PurdueB100.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
ColoradoP120.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
LSUSEC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
FloridaSEC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
ElonCAA0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
HofstraCAA0.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
PacificWCC0.060.0623.0823.08-0.03-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
PortlandWCC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.060.0683.8783.870.040.04
San DiegoWCC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.060.0670.5970.590.020.02
UC IrvineBW0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
DePaulBE0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
St. John'sBE0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
RutgersB100.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0320.8320.83-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0324.2424.24-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
UABCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
BelmontOVC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
DavidsonA100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
DaytonA100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
DetroitHorz0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
George WashingtonA100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0356.0056.000.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0322.8622.86-0.02-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
RichmondA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Saint LouisA100.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
ArizonaP120.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
MontanaBSky0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
UCLAP120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00