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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Harvard

Conference:Ivy
Expected RPI:46.0
Current RPI:46
Expected SOS:212
Current SOS:212
Current Record:25-4
Expected Record:25-4
Current Conf Record:13-1
Expected Conf Record:13-1
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-1
Current OOC Record:12-3
Expected OOC Record:12-3
Expected OOC RPI:43
Expected OOC SOS:204



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-446.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Harvard.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Holy Cross (127.0)PatN82-72W100%0.0
11-15Howard (323.0)MEACH76-44W100%0.0
11-20Bryant (177.0)NECH86-68W100%0.0
11-24Colorado (34.0)P12A70-62L0%0.0
11-28Denver (139.0)SumN68-60W100%0.0
11-29Green Bay (58.0)HorzN76-64W100%0.0
11-30TCU (212.0)B12N71-50W100%0.0
12-4Northeastern (222.0)CAAA64-72W100%0.0
12-7Boston University (84.0)PatA68-79W100%0.0
12-21Vermont (101.0)AEH74-68W100%0.0
12-28Fordham (226.0)A10A86-94W100%0.0
1-1Boston College (207.0)ACCH73-58W100%0.0
1-4Rice (299.0)CUSAA54-69W100%0.0
1-8Connecticut (22.0)AmerA61-56L0%0.0
1-11Dartmouth (266.0)IvyH61-45W100%0.0
1-21Florida Atlantic (270.0)CUSAA68-53L0%0.0
1-26Dartmouth (266.0)IvyA50-80W100%0.0
1-31Princeton (122.0)IvyH82-76W100%0.0
2-1Penn (284.0)IvyH80-50W100%0.0
2-7Brown (229.0)IvyH52-45W100%0.0
2-8Yale (147.0)IvyH67-74L0%0.0
2-14Columbia (130.0)IvyA84-88W100%0.0
2-15Cornell (334.0)IvyA44-67W100%0.0
2-21Penn (284.0)IvyA63-83W100%0.0
2-22Princeton (122.0)IvyA47-59W100%0.0
2-28Cornell (334.0)IvyH72-47W100%0.0
3-1Columbia (130.0)IvyH80-47W100%0.0
3-7Yale (147.0)IvyA58-70W100%0.0
3-8Brown (229.0)IvyA93-98W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Harvard's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Harvard's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Harvard.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
HarvardIvy26.3026.3088.8188.8120.4220.42
YaleIvy4.284.2852.0052.000.170.17
DartmouthIvy4.254.2541.6741.67-0.71-0.71
PrincetonIvy4.234.2376.0076.002.202.20
BrownIvy4.234.2356.0056.000.510.51
ColumbiaIvy4.214.2164.2964.291.201.20
PennIvy4.214.2130.7730.77-1.62-1.62
CornellIvy4.204.204.004.00-3.87-3.87
BryantNEC1.951.9556.6756.670.260.26
VermontAE1.881.8868.9768.970.710.71
ConnecticutAmer1.841.8475.7675.760.950.95
Boston UniversityPat1.831.8372.7372.730.830.83
RiceCUSA1.821.8218.5218.52-1.14-1.14
Florida AtlanticCUSA1.781.7824.1424.14-0.92-0.92
Boston CollegeACC1.781.7823.3323.33-0.95-0.95
Holy CrossPat1.771.7761.2961.290.400.40
FordhamA101.751.7533.3333.33-0.58-0.58
HowardMEAC1.751.7520.0020.00-1.05-1.05
NortheasternCAA1.751.7535.4835.48-0.51-0.51
ColoradoP121.721.7266.6766.670.570.57
DenverSum1.721.7251.7251.720.060.06
Green BayHorz1.721.7280.7780.771.061.06
TCUB121.721.7225.0025.00-0.86-0.86
New HampshireAE0.330.3317.2417.24-0.22-0.22
LafayettePat0.320.3233.3333.33-0.11-0.11
AmericanPat0.310.3162.5062.500.080.08
UMass LowellAE0.270.2733.3333.33-0.09-0.09
Sacred HeartNEC0.270.2716.1316.13-0.18-0.18
ColgatePat0.250.2540.0040.00-0.05-0.05
HartfordAE0.240.2451.5251.520.010.01
AlbanyAE0.240.2456.2556.250.030.03
Stony BrookAE0.230.2368.7568.750.090.09
BucknellPat0.230.2353.3353.330.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.210.2123.3323.33-0.11-0.11
Central ConnecticutNEC0.210.2134.4834.48-0.07-0.07
Loyola MDPat0.190.1934.4834.48-0.06-0.06
ArmyPat0.190.1946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.190.1943.7543.75-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.180.1867.6567.650.070.07
George MasonA100.180.1835.4835.48-0.05-0.05
RutgersAmer0.180.1834.3834.38-0.06-0.06
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.180.1831.0331.03-0.07-0.07
St. Francis PANEC0.180.1832.2632.26-0.06-0.06
Saint Joseph'sA100.170.1772.7372.730.080.08
LongwoodBSth0.160.1614.2914.29-0.11-0.11
St. John'sBE0.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
TulsaCUSA0.150.1563.6463.640.040.04
MaineAE0.150.1517.8617.86-0.10-0.10
North TexasCUSA0.150.1544.8344.83-0.02-0.02
SyracuseACC0.150.1584.3884.380.100.10
Notre DameACC0.150.1546.8846.88-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.140.1454.8454.840.010.01
LouisvilleAmer0.140.1485.2985.290.100.10
NavyPat0.130.1327.5927.59-0.06-0.06
USCP120.130.1332.2632.26-0.05-0.05
NiagaraMAAC0.130.1321.2121.21-0.07-0.07
Penn St.B100.130.1346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
PortlandWCC0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
WagnerNEC0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
DetroitHorz0.120.1236.6736.67-0.03-0.03
BaylorB120.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.110.1178.5778.570.070.07
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.110.1117.8617.86-0.07-0.07
TempleAmer0.110.1129.0329.03-0.05-0.05
ElonSC0.110.1155.1755.170.010.01
VCUA100.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
HoustonAmer0.110.1151.5251.520.000.00
DelawareCAA0.110.1173.5373.530.050.05
MarylandACC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
UCFAmer0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
WashingtonP120.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
MercerASun0.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
RiderMAAC0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.090.0927.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Saint LouisA100.090.0980.6580.650.060.06
St. BonaventureA100.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
TexasB120.090.0969.7069.700.040.04
La SalleA100.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.090.0934.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
NJITind0.090.0936.0036.00-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.090.0946.4346.43-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
UTEPCUSA0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
Old DominionCUSA0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
TulaneCUSA0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
UABCUSA0.090.0955.1755.170.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.090.0921.8821.88-0.05-0.05
DukeACC0.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
ManhattanMAAC0.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
South Dakota St.Sum0.090.0957.1457.140.010.01
KansasB120.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
George WashingtonA100.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
DrexelCAA0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
SMUAmer0.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
Washington St.P120.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
CaliforniaP120.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
StanfordP120.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
ArizonaP120.080.0888.2488.240.060.06
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
MemphisAmer0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
IllinoisB100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
UICHorz0.060.0613.7913.79-0.05-0.05
Kent St.MAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
PacificWCC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0670.9770.970.030.03
Wright St.Horz0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
MaristMAAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.060.0687.5087.500.050.05
PepperdineWCC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.060.0682.3582.350.040.04
East CarolinaCUSA0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0680.6580.650.040.04
UTSACUSA0.060.0622.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Iowa St.B120.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
Kansas St.B120.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
OklahomaB120.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
Texas TechB120.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
IdahoWAC0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.060.0610.3410.34-0.05-0.05
Michigan St.B100.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
ToledoMAC0.060.0681.2581.250.040.04
BelmontOVC0.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
DaytonA100.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
MassachusettsA100.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0683.8783.870.040.04
PittsburghACC0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0661.7661.760.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
UC IrvineBW0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
WyomingMWC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
HofstraCAA0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Arizona St.P120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
UtahP120.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
StetsonASun0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
PurdueB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
MichiganB100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
FloridaSEC0.030.0394.1294.120.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
IndianaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01