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Through games of Feb 7, 2016.


Harvard

Conference:Ivy
Expected RPI:212.3
Current RPI:225
Expected SOS:151
Current SOS:164
Current Record:7-13
Expected Record:11-17
Current Conf Record:1-5
Expected Conf Record:5-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-6
Current OOC Record:6-8
Expected OOC Record:6-8
Expected OOC RPI:173
Expected OOC SOS:151



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-13141.20.06%
14-14160.91.22%
13-15176.26.37%
12-16191.720.22%
11-17208.031.42%
10-18225.025.96%
9-19243.711.61%
8-20261.82.99%
7-21276.70.14%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Harvard.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Providence (44.9)BEA76-64L0%0.0
11-17Massachusetts (194.6)A10H63-69L0%0.0
11-22Boston College (233.9)ACCA69-56L0%0.0
11-25Bryant (319.4)NECH80-45W100%0.0
11-29Holy Cross (290.7)PatA50-49L0%0.0
12-2Northeastern (148.4)CAAA80-71L0%0.0
12-5Kansas (6.0)B12A75-69L0%0.0
12-8Boston University (193.8)PatA69-75W100%0.0
12-22BYU (72.3)WCCN85-82W100%0.0
12-23Auburn (159.0)SECN69-51W100%0.0
12-25Oklahoma (3.9)B12N83-71L0%0.0
12-31Wofford (191.4)SCH77-57W100%0.0
1-3Vermont (150.4)AEH62-65L0%0.0
1-9Dartmouth (290.6)IvyH77-70W100%0.0
1-16Howard (290.3)MEACA61-69W100%0.0
1-23Dartmouth (290.6)IvyA63-50L0%0.0
1-29Cornell (208.3)IvyH65-77L0%0.0
1-30Columbia (125.6)IvyH54-55L0%0.0
2-5Princeton (53.0)IvyA83-62L0%0.0
2-6Penn (276.6)IvyA67-57L0%0.0
2-12Brown (291.8)IvyH0-081%9.6
2-13Yale (55.6)IvyH0-028%-6.2
2-19Columbia (125.6)IvyA0-029%-6.1
2-20Cornell (208.3)IvyA0-060%2.7
2-26Yale (55.6)IvyA0-012%-12.9
2-27Brown (291.8)IvyA0-061%2.9
3-4Princeton (53.0)IvyH0-032%-5.2
3-5Penn (276.6)IvyH0-077%7.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Harvard's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Harvard's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Harvard.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
HarvardIvy26.2926.3436.6739.76-7.01-5.39
BrownIvy0.424.4531.5831.20-0.16-1.67
ColumbiaIvy2.884.4365.0063.700.861.21
DartmouthIvy5.374.4229.4130.33-2.21-1.74
YaleIvy0.374.4273.6874.230.172.14
CornellIvy2.814.3938.8937.77-0.62-1.07
PennIvy2.704.3635.2935.73-0.79-1.24
PrincetonIvy2.704.3670.5973.941.112.09
BryantNEC2.682.0126.0927.28-1.28-0.91
VermontAE2.681.9552.1756.050.120.24
HowardMEAC2.681.9440.0042.24-0.54-0.30
Holy CrossPat2.611.9436.3636.14-0.71-0.54
ProvidenceBE2.661.9473.9169.971.270.77
Boston UniversityPat2.661.9156.5257.490.350.29
MassachusettsA102.661.8838.1037.27-0.63-0.48
KansasB122.611.8880.9576.791.621.01
WoffordSC2.561.8542.8647.00-0.37-0.11
NortheasternCAA2.601.8543.4844.82-0.34-0.19
OklahomaB122.561.8585.7181.481.831.16
Boston CollegeACC2.551.8127.2724.05-1.16-0.94
AuburnSEC2.501.7942.8637.87-0.36-0.43
BYUWCC2.501.7969.5771.890.980.78
LafayettePat0.360.3222.7324.04-0.20-0.17
New HampshireAE0.400.3155.0053.180.040.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.230.2913.0413.54-0.17-0.21
Saint Joseph'sA100.260.2582.6178.890.170.15
AlbanyAE0.280.2575.0075.850.140.13
MaineAE0.340.2534.7834.00-0.10-0.08
HartfordAE0.290.2526.0926.50-0.14-0.12
BucknellPat0.290.2554.5558.140.030.04
LehighPat0.220.2533.3337.25-0.07-0.06
BinghamtonAE0.240.2221.7424.67-0.14-0.11
Stony BrookAE0.230.2280.9582.700.140.14
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.140.2038.1041.93-0.03-0.03
FairfieldMAAC0.190.1954.1754.130.020.02
MaristMAAC0.240.1922.7324.73-0.13-0.10
ColgatePat0.230.1945.4546.10-0.02-0.01
NavyPat0.280.1962.5062.450.070.05
Robert MorrisNEC0.230.1928.0030.73-0.10-0.07
NJITASun0.160.1954.1755.250.010.02
Rhode IslandA100.160.1956.5256.610.020.02
UMass LowellAE0.220.1831.8232.67-0.08-0.06
Kansas St.B120.230.1860.8758.470.050.03
CanisiusMAAC0.250.1644.0045.31-0.03-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.110.1634.7837.07-0.03-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.180.1630.4335.11-0.07-0.05
LIU BrooklynNEC0.240.1647.8348.91-0.01-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.100.1554.1752.340.010.01
VillanovaBE0.230.1586.9686.370.170.11
ArmyPat0.160.1552.1753.380.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.160.1534.7837.15-0.05-0.04
DelawareCAA0.220.1521.7423.32-0.12-0.08
Oklahoma St.B120.170.1547.8344.37-0.01-0.02
SMUAmer0.000.1390.9186.130.000.10
HamptonMEAC0.070.1357.1459.470.010.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.130.1340.9149.27-0.02-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.190.1322.7324.97-0.10-0.06
Georgia TechACC0.120.1352.1751.590.010.00
DrexelCAA0.070.1313.6418.14-0.05-0.08
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.120.1350.0051.910.000.00
La SalleA100.130.1320.0020.45-0.08-0.07
SienaMAAC0.170.1364.0064.120.050.04
Miami FLACC0.180.1281.8276.740.110.07
DukeACC0.110.1273.9170.040.050.05
Seton HallBE0.180.1273.9169.830.090.05
SyracuseACC0.120.1266.6762.560.040.03
AmericanPat0.110.1230.4331.89-0.04-0.04
VanderbiltSEC0.170.1256.5260.000.020.02
Iowa St.B120.170.1273.9170.060.080.05
Texas TechB120.110.1259.0953.120.020.01
West VirginiaB120.110.1282.6179.550.070.07
BaylorB120.110.1272.7366.500.050.04
TCUB120.170.1243.4837.22-0.02-0.03
TexasB120.060.1269.5762.630.020.03
ClemsonACC0.110.1260.8760.240.020.02
CreightonBE0.170.1262.5059.780.040.02
Michigan St.B100.220.1283.3383.020.140.08
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.1031.8236.14-0.02-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.130.109.5213.52-0.10-0.07
George MasonA100.070.1034.7834.15-0.02-0.03
LipscombASun0.120.1025.0029.27-0.06-0.04
NiagaraMAAC0.050.1024.0024.57-0.03-0.05
IllinoisB100.050.0945.8344.11-0.00-0.01
PittsburghACC0.120.0976.1968.220.060.03
RiderMAAC0.120.0940.0042.11-0.02-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.170.0921.0527.82-0.10-0.04
HawaiiBW0.170.0984.2181.670.120.06
UMBCAE0.110.0924.0026.41-0.06-0.04
William & MaryCAA0.160.0971.4369.840.070.04
MercerSC0.110.0972.7370.750.050.04
QuinnipiacMAAC0.160.0938.1037.44-0.04-0.02
KentuckySEC0.170.0973.9171.550.080.04
MississippiSEC0.110.0965.2259.020.030.02
St. BonaventureA100.110.0971.4368.970.050.03
North CarolinaACC0.110.0982.6178.690.070.05
FordhamA100.110.0955.0052.290.010.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.110.0930.4331.18-0.04-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.110.0937.5043.37-0.03-0.01
XavierBE0.110.0991.3084.380.090.06
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.130.0766.6767.690.040.02
LibertyBSth0.070.0734.7836.50-0.02-0.02
MarylandB100.070.0787.5083.690.050.04
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0779.1780.760.040.04
StanfordP120.130.0750.0046.610.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.070.0763.6459.840.020.01
USCP120.000.0778.2673.060.000.03
WashingtonP120.070.0765.2261.070.020.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0615.0022.36-0.04-0.04
Central MichiganMAC0.110.0650.0051.170.000.00
PurdueB100.110.0679.1776.550.070.03
ChattanoogaSC0.110.0686.3685.030.080.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0659.0959.440.010.01
FurmanSC0.060.0652.1753.310.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0642.8641.97-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.060.0666.6763.420.020.02
SamfordSC0.110.0639.1341.32-0.02-0.01
The CitadelSC0.060.0633.3331.31-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0628.5731.89-0.02-0.02
VMISC0.060.0615.7917.42-0.04-0.04
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0628.5731.36-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.110.0660.0060.090.020.01
MissouriSEC0.110.0634.7830.36-0.03-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.060.0659.0953.030.010.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0663.6460.940.010.01
ColoradoP120.110.0669.5765.330.040.02
ElonCAA0.100.0652.1750.420.000.00
FloridaSEC0.110.0665.2266.090.030.02
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0661.9056.690.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0678.2676.810.030.03
HofstraCAA0.050.0665.2264.220.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.050.0670.8369.500.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.100.0639.1338.57-0.02-0.01
LSUSEC0.110.0665.2260.270.030.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0640.0045.51-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.110.0660.8763.000.020.02
PacificWCC0.100.0625.0028.89-0.05-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.100.0656.5257.280.010.01
PortlandWCC0.050.0640.0038.50-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.100.0685.7185.390.070.04
San DiegoWCC0.000.0631.8229.14-0.00-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0654.5550.110.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.100.0650.0049.440.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.060.0647.8346.88-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.050.0665.2259.750.020.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.100.0676.1973.400.050.03
WagnerNEC0.050.0663.6465.030.010.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0650.0049.090.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.110.0672.7371.620.050.03
ButlerBE0.100.0669.5767.230.040.02
DePaulBE0.050.0634.7834.45-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0662.5056.260.010.01
Notre DameACC0.110.0669.5765.850.040.02
St. John'sBE0.050.0626.0923.72-0.02-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0320.0026.74-0.04-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0329.1733.15-0.02-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0325.0033.21-0.03-0.01
RadfordBSth0.060.0350.0051.270.000.00
RutgersB100.060.0321.7420.35-0.03-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0335.0035.98-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0350.0053.300.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0345.4554.11-0.010.00
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0337.5040.52-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0325.0026.87-0.03-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0352.1755.930.000.00
BelmontOVC0.050.0366.6766.540.020.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0359.0958.880.010.01
DavidsonA100.060.0360.0057.960.010.00
DaytonA100.060.0386.3682.380.040.02
DetroitHorz0.050.0347.6245.85-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.000.0363.6456.430.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0336.8441.44-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0322.7327.19-0.03-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0347.6252.07-0.000.00
George WashingtonA100.060.0378.2674.420.030.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0340.0039.00-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0356.2556.100.010.00
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0345.4551.35-0.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0317.6529.24-0.04-0.01
MemphisAmer0.060.0360.8760.770.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0331.8230.48-0.02-0.01
MichiganB100.050.0369.5766.220.020.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0371.4369.420.020.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0340.9140.65-0.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0316.6720.13-0.03-0.02
MontanaBSky0.060.0357.8962.290.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0327.7834.50-0.03-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0328.5726.96-0.02-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0354.1755.080.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0318.7526.45-0.04-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0339.1341.12-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.060.0361.9056.420.010.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.039.0917.09-0.04-0.02
RichmondA100.060.0354.5554.490.010.00
Saint LouisA100.060.0336.3633.47-0.02-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0372.7372.030.030.01
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0386.3679.150.040.02
South FloridaAmer0.050.0320.0019.66-0.03-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0378.2678.050.000.02
UABCUSA0.060.0382.6179.420.040.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0342.8650.41-0.010.00
UCFAmer0.060.0352.3845.700.00-0.00
UCLAP120.060.0356.5253.240.010.00
UtahP120.050.0369.5767.480.020.01
Utah St.MWC0.050.0345.0046.77-0.01-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0333.3334.94-0.02-0.01
VCUA100.000.0373.9173.900.000.01
Washington St.P120.060.0336.3632.00-0.02-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.050.0365.0069.270.020.01
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0333.3335.48-0.02-0.01
WisconsinB100.060.0360.8755.840.010.00
ArizonaP120.050.0379.1778.330.030.02
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0375.0076.240.030.02
Florida St.ACC0.050.0369.5764.890.020.01
LouisvilleACC0.050.0382.6177.740.040.02
Penn St.B100.050.0350.0046.740.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.050.0382.6178.050.040.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0354.1749.270.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.0343.4840.61-0.00-0.01