Harvard

Conference:	Ivy
Expected RPI:	117.0
Current RPI:	117
Expected SOS:	177
Current SOS:	177
Current Record:	17-13
Expected Record:	17-13
Current Conf Record:	13-3
Expected Conf Record:	13-3
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	13-3
Current OOC Record:	4-10
Expected OOC Record:	4-10
Expected OOC RPI:	213
Expected OOC SOS:	85

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
17-13	117.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Harvard.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-12	Massachusetts (240.0)	A10	H	70-67	W	100%
11-16	Holy Cross (265.0)	Pat	A	73-69	L	0%
11-18	Manhattan (228.0)	MAAC	A	73-69	L	0%
11-23	Saint Mary's (40.0)	WCC	N	71-89	L	0%
11-24	Saint Joseph's (147.0)	A10	N	71-77	W	100%
11-26	Cal St. Fullerton (131.0)	BW	A	70-61	L	0%
11-30	Northeastern (55.0)	CAA	A	77-61	L	0%
12-2	Kentucky (10.0)	SEC	A	79-70	L	0%
12-6	Fordham (290.0)	A10	A	45-47	W	100%
12-21	Boston University (212.0)	Pat	H	74-63	W	100%
12-23	George Washington (195.0)	A10	A	58-48	L	0%
12-30	Minnesota (171.0)	B10	A	65-55	L	0%
1-2	Vermont (60.0)	AE	H	56-62	L	0%
1-6	Dartmouth (334.0)	Ivy	H	61-51	W	100%
1-10	Wofford (129.0)	SC	A	63-62	L	0%
1-20	Dartmouth (334.0)	Ivy	A	57-62	W	100%
1-26	Yale (183.0)	Ivy	A	52-54	W	100%
1-27	Brown (298.0)	Ivy	A	77-86	W	100%
2-2	Columbia (316.0)	Ivy	A	83-76	L	0%
2-3	Cornell (248.0)	Ivy	A	73-76	W	100%
2-9	Princeton (226.0)	Ivy	H	66-51	W	100%
2-10	Penn (112.0)	Ivy	H	76-67	W	100%
2-16	Brown (298.0)	Ivy	H	65-58	W	100%
2-17	Yale (183.0)	Ivy	H	64-49	W	100%
2-23	Princeton (226.0)	Ivy	A	66-72	W	100%
2-24	Penn (112.0)	Ivy	A	74-71	L	0%
3-2	Cornell (248.0)	Ivy	H	98-88	W	100%
3-3	Columbia (316.0)	Ivy	H	93-74	W	100%
3-10	Cornell (248.0)	Ivy	N	74-55	W	100%
3-11	Penn (112.0)	Ivy	A	68-65	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Harvard's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Harvard's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Harvard.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Harvard	Ivy	26.50	26.50	63.71	63.71	7.27	7.27
Penn	Ivy	5.88	5.88	75.00	75.00	2.94	2.94
Cornell	Ivy	5.80	5.80	45.83	45.83	-0.48	-0.48
Yale	Ivy	4.29	4.29	53.57	53.57	0.31	0.31
Princeton	Ivy	4.23	4.23	46.15	46.15	-0.33	-0.33
Dartmouth	Ivy	4.19	4.19	25.00	25.00	-2.10	-2.10
Brown	Ivy	4.17	4.17	41.67	41.67	-0.69	-0.69
Columbia	Ivy	4.17	4.17	25.00	25.00	-2.08	-2.08
Saint Joseph's	A10	1.94	1.94	51.61	51.61	0.06	0.06
Vermont	AE	1.84	1.84	78.12	78.12	1.03	1.03
George Washington	A10	1.83	1.83	43.75	43.75	-0.23	-0.23
Massachusetts	A10	1.82	1.82	40.62	40.62	-0.34	-0.34
Fordham	A10	1.82	1.82	30.00	30.00	-0.73	-0.73
Northeastern	CAA	1.81	1.81	67.74	67.74	0.64	0.64
Holy Cross	Pat	1.77	1.77	36.67	36.67	-0.47	-0.47
Boston University	Pat	1.75	1.75	48.28	48.28	-0.06	-0.06
Manhattan	MAAC	1.72	1.72	43.33	43.33	-0.23	-0.23
Saint Mary's	WCC	1.70	1.70	84.38	84.38	1.17	1.17
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	1.69	1.69	60.71	60.71	0.36	0.36
Kentucky	SEC	1.69	1.69	69.70	69.70	0.67	0.67
Minnesota	B10	1.69	1.69	45.16	45.16	-0.16	-0.16
Wofford	SC	1.67	1.67	58.62	58.62	0.29	0.29
Lafayette	Pat	0.34	0.34	30.00	30.00	-0.14	-0.14
La Salle	A10	0.31	0.31	40.62	40.62	-0.06	-0.06
Maine	AE	0.31	0.31	13.33	13.33	-0.23	-0.23
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.30	0.30	36.36	36.36	-0.08	-0.08
Colgate	Pat	0.29	0.29	58.06	58.06	0.05	0.05
Albany	AE	0.29	0.29	67.74	67.74	0.10	0.10
Navy	Pat	0.28	0.28	61.29	61.29	0.06	0.06
Monmouth	MAAC	0.27	0.27	35.48	35.48	-0.08	-0.08
UMass Lowell	AE	0.26	0.26	37.93	37.93	-0.06	-0.06
Lehigh	Pat	0.25	0.25	51.72	51.72	0.01	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.25	0.25	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.25	0.25	78.12	78.12	0.14	0.14
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.24	0.24	78.12	78.12	0.13	0.13
Dayton	A10	0.23	0.23	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
George Mason	A10	0.23	0.23	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.23	0.23	38.71	38.71	-0.05	-0.05
Bucknell	Pat	0.21	0.21	73.53	73.53	0.10	0.10
Stony Brook	AE	0.20	0.20	38.71	38.71	-0.05	-0.05
Toledo	MAC	0.20	0.20	66.67	66.67	0.07	0.07
Niagara	MAAC	0.20	0.20	59.38	59.38	0.04	0.04
New Hampshire	AE	0.19	0.19	27.59	27.59	-0.09	-0.09
Bryant	NEC	0.18	0.18	9.68	9.68	-0.15	-0.15
Army	Pat	0.17	0.17	41.38	41.38	-0.03	-0.03
Loyola MD	Pat	0.17	0.17	26.67	26.67	-0.08	-0.08
Villanova	BE	0.17	0.17	88.24	88.24	0.13	0.13
Iona	MAAC	0.16	0.16	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
BYU	WCC	0.16	0.16	70.59	70.59	0.07	0.07
Towson	CAA	0.16	0.16	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.16	0.16	13.33	13.33	-0.11	-0.11
Davidson	A10	0.16	0.16	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
VCU	A10	0.16	0.16	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.15	0.15	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
Binghamton	AE	0.14	0.14	31.03	31.03	-0.05	-0.05
Miami FL	ACC	0.14	0.14	70.97	70.97	0.06	0.06
Fairfield	MAAC	0.13	0.13	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Temple	Amer	0.13	0.13	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Saint Louis	A10	0.13	0.13	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.13	0.13	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.13	0.13	55.88	55.88	0.02	0.02
Marist	MAAC	0.12	0.12	19.35	19.35	-0.07	-0.07
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.12	0.12	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Auburn	SEC	0.12	0.12	78.12	78.12	0.07	0.07
Cal Poly	BW	0.12	0.12	24.14	24.14	-0.06	-0.06
Hawaii	BW	0.12	0.12	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.12	0.12	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.12	0.12	61.76	61.76	0.03	0.03
Providence	BE	0.12	0.12	61.76	61.76	0.03	0.03
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UC Irvine	BW	0.11	0.11	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
American	Pat	0.11	0.11	20.00	20.00	-0.07	-0.07
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.11	0.11	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
UMKC	WAC	0.11	0.11	27.59	27.59	-0.05	-0.05
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.11	0.11	71.88	71.88	0.05	0.05
Western Carolina	SC	0.11	0.11	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Howard	MEAC	0.11	0.11	25.81	25.81	-0.05	-0.05
Siena	MAAC	0.11	0.11	25.00	25.00	-0.05	-0.05
Syracuse	ACC	0.09	0.09	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Connecticut	Amer	0.09	0.09	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.09	0.09	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.09	0.09	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
USC	P12	0.09	0.09	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.09	0.09	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Long Beach St.	BW	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.09	0.09	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Mercer	SC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.08	0.08	77.42	77.42	0.05	0.05
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Utah Valley	WAC	0.08	0.08	65.52	65.52	0.03	0.03
California	P12	0.08	0.08	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Furman	SC	0.08	0.08	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Wisconsin	B10	0.08	0.08	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	6.67	6.67	-0.07	-0.07
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.08	0.08	16.67	16.67	-0.05	-0.05
Elon	CAA	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Portland	WCC	0.08	0.08	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
Rider	MAAC	0.08	0.08	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Hofstra	CAA	0.08	0.08	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Rutgers	B10	0.08	0.08	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
College of Charleston	CAA	0.08	0.08	77.42	77.42	0.04	0.04
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.08	0.08	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
South Carolina	SEC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Pepperdine	WCC	0.08	0.08	16.13	16.13	-0.05	-0.05
UMBC	AE	0.08	0.08	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Alabama	SEC	0.08	0.08	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.07	0.07	75.76	75.76	0.04	0.04
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
NJIT	ASun	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Notre Dame	ACC	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Akron	MAC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Butler	BE	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.06	0.06	76.67	76.67	0.03	0.03
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.06	0.06	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
UC Riverside	BW	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.06	0.06	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Chattanooga	SC	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Creighton	BE	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Samford	SC	0.06	0.06	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
TCU	B12	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
The Citadel	SC	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
VMI	SC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.05	82.35	82.35	0.03	0.03
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.05	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Washington St.	P12	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Gonzaga	WCC	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Hartford	AE	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Pacific	WCC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
High Point	BSth	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.03	0.03	71.43	71.43	0.01	0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	24.24	24.24	-0.01	-0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Tulane	Amer	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Tulsa	Amer	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Maryland	B10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	87.88	87.88	0.02	0.02
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Stanford	P12	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
USC Upstate	ASun	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Utah St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Georgia St.	SB	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	83.33	83.33	0.02	0.02
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
San Jose St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	10.34	10.34	-0.02	-0.02
Seattle	WAC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Xavier	BE	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Kansas	B12	0.02	0.02	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Louisville	ACC	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
LSU	SEC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Mississippi	SEC	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Troy	SB	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
UCLA	P12	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01