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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Harvard

Conference:Ivy
Expected RPI:52.0
Current RPI:52
Expected SOS:137
Current SOS:137
Current Record:20-7
Expected Record:20-7
Current Conf Record:12-3
Expected Conf Record:12-3
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-1
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:60
Expected OOC SOS:126



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-752.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Harvard.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Holy Cross (200.0)PatN57-58L0%0.0
11-20Florida Atlantic (303.0)CUSAH71-49W100%0.0
11-25Houston (239.0)AmerH84-63W100%0.0
11-29Massachusetts (80.0)A10H75-73W100%0.0
12-3Northeastern (86.0)CAAH60-46W100%0.0
12-6Vermont (203.0)AEA52-64W100%0.0
12-8Boston University (198.0)PatH70-56W100%0.0
12-21Virginia (7.0)ACCA76-27L0%0.0
12-28Arizona St. (102.0)P12A56-46L0%0.0
12-30Grand Canyon (274.0)WACA59-72W100%0.0
1-10Dartmouth (186.0)IvyA46-57W100%0.0
1-14Boston College (165.0)ACCA64-57L0%0.0
1-20Bryant (189.0)NECA57-66W100%0.0
1-24Dartmouth (186.0)IvyH61-70L0%0.0
1-30Princeton (191.0)IvyA72-75W100%0.0
1-31Penn (254.0)IvyA38-63W100%0.0
2-6Brown (248.0)IvyA74-76W100%0.0
2-7Yale (64.0)IvyA50-52W100%0.0
2-13Columbia (196.0)IvyH72-68W100%0.0
2-14Cornell (227.0)IvyH61-40W100%0.0
2-20Penn (254.0)IvyH69-46W100%0.0
2-21Princeton (191.0)IvyH63-55W100%0.0
2-27Cornell (227.0)IvyA57-49L0%0.0
2-28Columbia (196.0)IvyA70-80W100%0.0
3-6Yale (64.0)IvyH52-62L0%0.0
3-7Brown (248.0)IvyH72-62W100%0.0
3-14Yale (64.0)IvyN51-53W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Harvard's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Harvard's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Harvard.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
HarvardIvy26.4326.4375.9775.9713.7213.72
YaleIvy6.406.4070.3770.372.612.61
BrownIvy4.614.6140.7440.74-0.85-0.85
DartmouthIvy4.604.6050.0050.000.000.00
CornellIvy4.554.5540.7440.74-0.84-0.84
PrincetonIvy4.554.5555.5655.560.510.51
PennIvy4.544.5434.6234.62-1.40-1.40
ColumbiaIvy4.544.5448.0048.00-0.18-0.18
BryantNEC2.112.1153.3353.330.140.14
VermontAE2.042.0458.6258.620.350.35
Holy CrossPat1.981.9842.8642.86-0.28-0.28
Boston UniversityPat1.941.9442.8642.86-0.28-0.28
NortheasternCAA1.911.9169.7069.700.750.75
Boston CollegeACC1.911.9138.7138.71-0.43-0.43
MassachusettsA101.911.9154.8454.840.180.18
VirginiaACC1.881.8890.3290.321.521.52
Arizona St.P121.851.8551.6151.610.060.06
Florida AtlanticCUSA1.851.8526.9226.92-0.85-0.85
Grand CanyonWAC1.851.8553.5753.570.130.13
HoustonAmer1.851.8541.9441.94-0.30-0.30
LafayettePat0.380.3861.2961.290.090.09
UMass LowellAE0.320.3239.2939.29-0.07-0.07
Stony BrookAE0.290.2965.6265.620.090.09
Loyola MDPat0.290.2936.6736.67-0.08-0.08
ColgatePat0.290.2946.8846.88-0.02-0.02
New HampshireAE0.280.2858.6258.620.050.05
Sacred HeartNEC0.280.2845.1645.16-0.03-0.03
AmericanPat0.260.2651.5251.520.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.250.2516.6716.67-0.17-0.17
HartfordAE0.250.2544.8344.83-0.03-0.03
BucknellPat0.230.2356.2556.250.030.03
WagnerNEC0.230.2331.0331.03-0.09-0.09
LehighPat0.230.2351.7251.720.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.220.2247.0647.06-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.220.2238.7138.71-0.05-0.05
ConnecticutAmer0.220.2258.8258.820.040.04
ProvidenceBE0.210.2166.6766.670.070.07
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.190.1925.0025.00-0.10-0.10
NJITind0.190.1956.0056.000.020.02
AlbanyAE0.190.1975.0075.000.090.09
SyracuseACC0.180.1858.0658.060.030.03
La SalleA100.180.1851.5251.520.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.160.1666.6766.670.050.05
VanderbiltSEC0.160.1658.0658.060.030.03
ArmyPat0.160.1648.2848.28-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.160.1610.0010.00-0.13-0.13
George MasonA100.160.1626.6726.67-0.07-0.07
CanisiusMAAC0.160.1653.3353.330.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.150.1541.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.150.1540.6240.62-0.03-0.03
PittsburghACC0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.140.1451.5251.520.000.00
KentuckySEC0.130.13100.00100.000.130.13
Penn St.B100.130.1352.9452.940.010.01
RiderMAAC0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
St. BonaventureA100.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
SienaMAAC0.120.1235.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.120.1216.1316.13-0.08-0.08
HofstraCAA0.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
CaliforniaP120.120.1254.5554.550.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.120.1270.0070.000.050.05
DrexelCAA0.120.1237.9337.93-0.03-0.03
USCP120.120.1237.5037.50-0.03-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.120.1268.5768.570.040.04
Notre DameACC0.120.1285.2985.290.080.08
UTEPCUSA0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
BuffaloMAC0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
Incarnate WordSlnd0.100.1058.3358.330.020.02
MaristMAAC0.100.1021.8821.88-0.05-0.05
TempleAmer0.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
Chicago St.WAC0.090.0917.2417.24-0.06-0.06
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.05-0.05
UMBCAE0.090.0913.3313.33-0.07-0.07
FloridaSEC0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.090.0934.3834.38-0.03-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.090.0975.7675.760.050.05
Robert MorrisNEC0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
ElonCAA0.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.090.0975.0075.000.040.04
Miami FLACC0.090.0963.6463.640.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
TulaneAmer0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
Virginia TechACC0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
DelawareCAA0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
FIUCUSA0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0752.9452.940.000.00
UABCUSA0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IPFWSum0.070.0748.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.070.0728.1228.12-0.03-0.03
MercerSC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.070.0794.1294.120.060.06
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0621.4321.43-0.04-0.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.060.0614.2914.29-0.05-0.05
LipscombASun0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
NorthwesternB100.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.060.0662.0762.070.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.060.060.000.00-0.06-0.06
SeattleWAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
UMKCWAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
ArizonaP120.060.0691.1891.180.050.05
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
ClemsonACC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
ColoradoP120.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
DukeACC0.060.0687.8887.880.040.04
FordhamA100.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
MarylandB100.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
MemphisAmer0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
OregonP120.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
Oregon St.P120.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
SMUAmer0.060.0681.2581.250.040.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
StanfordP120.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
UtahP120.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
VCUA100.060.0674.2974.290.030.03
DetroitHorz0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
RichmondA100.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0527.2727.27-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0375.0075.000.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0377.4277.420.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
UTSACUSA0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0371.4371.430.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.036.906.90-0.03-0.03
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
AkronMAC0.030.0358.8258.820.010.01
DenverSum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
BYUWCC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
DuquesneA100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
LSUSEC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0318.7518.75-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
RutgersB100.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Texas TechB120.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
WashingtonP120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Washington St.P120.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00