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Through games of Jan 21, 2018.


Harvard

Conference:Ivy
Expected RPI:178.0
Current RPI:183
Expected SOS:175
Current SOS:135
Current Record:6-10
Expected Record:13-15
Current Conf Record:2-0
Expected Conf Record:9-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-4
Current OOC Record:4-10
Expected OOC Record:4-10
Expected OOC RPI:197
Expected OOC SOS:74



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-1084.70.07%
17-11102.01.05%
16-12120.44.62%
15-13140.812.54%
14-14161.122.33%
13-15180.824.46%
12-16199.419.52%
11-17217.010.19%
10-18233.83.84%
9-19248.71.24%
8-20264.10.12%
7-21285.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Harvard.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Massachusetts (199.1)A10H70-67W100%0.0
11-16Holy Cross (303.4)PatA73-69L0%0.0
11-18Manhattan (204.8)MAACA73-69L0%0.0
11-23Saint Mary's (34.6)WCCN71-89L0%0.0
11-24Saint Joseph's (150.4)A10N71-77W100%0.0
11-26Cal St. Fullerton (160.3)BWA70-61L0%0.0
11-30Northeastern (79.5)CAAA77-61L0%0.0
12-2Kentucky (20.4)SECA79-70L0%0.0
12-6Fordham (280.1)A10A45-47W100%0.0
12-21Boston University (199.1)PatH74-63W100%0.0
12-23George Washington (200.4)A10A58-48L0%0.0
12-30Minnesota (98.1)B10A65-55L0%0.0
1-2Vermont (55.0)AEH56-62L0%0.0
1-6Dartmouth (318.5)IvyH61-51W100%0.0
1-10Wofford (117.5)SCA63-62L0%0.0
1-20Dartmouth (318.5)IvyA57-62W100%0.0
1-26Yale (202.5)IvyA0-042%-2.3
1-27Brown (260.6)IvyA0-061%3.1
2-2Columbia (278.6)IvyA0-053%0.8
2-3Cornell (280.4)IvyA0-070%5.8
2-9Princeton (140.5)IvyH0-051%0.1
2-10Penn (172.9)IvyH0-060%2.8
2-16Brown (260.6)IvyH0-080%9.5
2-17Yale (202.5)IvyH0-064%4.1
2-23Princeton (140.5)IvyA0-029%-6.2
2-24Penn (172.9)IvyA0-037%-3.6
3-2Cornell (280.4)IvyH0-086%12.2
3-3Columbia (278.6)IvyH0-074%7.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Harvard's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Harvard's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Harvard.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
HarvardIvy26.6026.3543.7551.15-3.330.61
PrincetonIvy0.164.4352.9460.210.010.90
PennIvy0.004.4064.7163.560.001.19
YaleIvy0.084.4041.1847.61-0.01-0.21
CornellIvy0.084.3933.3334.18-0.03-1.39
DartmouthIvy6.334.3925.0028.54-3.16-1.88
BrownIvy0.004.3650.0046.470.00-0.31
ColumbiaIvy0.004.3620.0031.890.00-1.58
Saint Joseph'sA103.362.0652.9453.420.200.14
VermontAE3.511.9873.6877.091.661.07
MassachusettsA103.371.9652.6348.370.18-0.06
George WashingtonA103.211.9442.1141.59-0.51-0.33
FordhamA103.291.9333.3330.06-1.10-0.77
NortheasternCAA3.291.9261.1161.900.730.46
Holy CrossPat3.371.9122.2228.01-1.87-0.84
Boston UniversityPat3.291.8852.9455.240.190.20
ManhattanMAAC3.291.8547.3749.17-0.17-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC3.221.8290.0088.592.581.40
KentuckySEC3.201.8272.2266.901.420.61
Cal St. FullertonBW3.201.8153.3355.100.210.19
MinnesotaB103.201.8161.9056.220.760.23
WoffordSC3.121.7966.6762.341.040.44
QuinnipiacMAAC0.380.3235.0031.83-0.11-0.12
AlbanyAE0.390.3271.4370.240.170.13
LafayettePat0.080.3222.2227.47-0.05-0.14
MaineAE0.640.3210.5314.83-0.50-0.22
La SalleA100.240.3040.0042.69-0.05-0.04
MonmouthMAAC0.160.2827.7841.03-0.07-0.05
St. BonaventureA100.410.2766.6768.730.140.10
ColgatePat0.170.2650.0051.030.000.01
UMass LowellAE0.240.2633.3333.87-0.08-0.08
NavyPat0.170.2660.0055.160.030.03
LehighPat0.170.2538.8944.75-0.04-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.240.2583.3381.430.160.15
DuquesneA100.160.2470.0058.090.060.04
DaytonA100.240.2447.3750.94-0.010.00
New HampshireAE0.550.2233.3340.08-0.18-0.04
BucknellPat0.420.2261.9068.020.100.08
George MasonA100.240.2045.0041.30-0.02-0.04
BryantNEC0.220.209.5217.12-0.18-0.13
Stony BrookAE0.080.2036.8445.21-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.170.1961.1160.440.040.04
Loyola MDPat0.390.1922.2228.66-0.22-0.08
DelawareCAA0.080.1947.3743.02-0.00-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.150.1957.1453.050.020.01
DavidsonA100.160.1858.8261.450.030.04
RichmondA100.240.1831.5834.36-0.09-0.05
VCUA100.250.1860.0059.700.050.03
ToledoMAC0.090.1666.6767.700.030.06
VillanovaBE0.090.1694.7490.310.080.13
Miami FLACC0.240.1577.7870.480.130.06
TowsonCAA0.080.1563.1665.970.020.05
IonaMAAC0.080.1560.0064.110.020.04
BYUWCC0.150.1580.9576.240.090.08
Boston CollegeACC0.220.1465.0054.670.070.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.1416.6716.160.00-0.09
Cal PolyBW0.100.1323.5328.21-0.05-0.06
HawaiiBW0.000.1368.7563.990.000.04
BinghamtonAE0.000.1342.1139.940.00-0.03
MaristMAAC0.080.1321.0522.02-0.05-0.07
St. Francis NYNEC0.160.1333.3335.21-0.05-0.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.390.1342.1146.00-0.06-0.01
NorthwesternB100.070.1355.0050.330.010.00
Penn St.B100.150.1361.9055.760.040.01
ProvidenceBE0.150.1370.0060.470.060.03
AmericanPat0.090.1326.3228.11-0.04-0.05
East Tennessee St.SC0.160.1277.7879.150.090.07
Western CarolinaSC0.150.1238.8935.37-0.03-0.04
FairfieldMAAC0.160.1238.8944.08-0.03-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.330.1266.6755.940.110.01
TempleAmer0.160.1252.6351.740.010.00
SienaMAAC0.240.1228.5729.94-0.10-0.05
Saint LouisA100.080.1247.3746.92-0.00-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.090.1052.6347.390.00-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.310.1030.0033.47-0.12-0.03
CanisiusMAAC0.300.1061.9063.140.070.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.080.1040.0042.52-0.02-0.01
USCP120.100.1071.4368.280.040.04
AuburnSEC0.000.1089.4777.000.000.05
UC IrvineBW0.170.1030.0039.93-0.07-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.280.1066.6766.020.090.03
CaliforniaP120.270.1036.8431.12-0.07-0.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.080.0923.5332.57-0.04-0.03
FurmanSC0.180.0966.6768.540.060.04
ElonCAA0.170.0952.6351.080.010.00
Georgia TechACC0.100.0952.6343.110.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.260.0916.6724.45-0.17-0.05
Loyola MarymountWCC0.170.0927.7829.10-0.08-0.04
PortlandWCC0.100.0927.7827.28-0.04-0.04
HofstraCAA0.160.0957.8959.490.030.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0941.1839.16-0.01-0.02
UMKCWAC0.080.0921.0524.75-0.05-0.05
HowardMEAC0.080.0910.5327.29-0.06-0.04
WisconsinB100.000.0950.0046.300.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.260.0961.1151.910.060.00
RiderMAAC0.160.0965.0065.320.050.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0717.6519.300.00-0.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0752.3848.530.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.100.0740.0043.35-0.02-0.01
NJITASun0.000.0738.8942.610.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.220.0763.1661.020.060.02
SyracuseACC0.000.0768.4261.230.000.02
UC DavisBW0.100.0758.8262.440.020.02
UC RiversideBW0.100.0717.6523.86-0.06-0.04
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.100.0770.5969.630.040.03
AkronMAC0.000.0647.0644.910.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.000.0666.6763.070.000.02
ChattanoogaSC0.100.0622.2228.59-0.05-0.03
MercerSC0.000.0644.4454.860.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0672.2274.710.000.03
SamfordSC0.100.0627.7832.66-0.04-0.02
The CitadelSC0.100.0618.7518.36-0.06-0.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.100.0668.7567.600.040.02
VMISC0.100.0625.0024.15-0.05-0.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.180.0627.7838.14-0.08-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.0612.5025.450.00-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.080.0666.6765.640.030.02
CreightonBE0.000.0675.0070.700.000.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.060.009.090.00-0.05
DrexelCAA0.000.0630.0030.990.00-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.160.0625.0028.24-0.08-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0616.6724.910.00-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0627.7831.710.00-0.02
TCUB120.000.0673.6865.600.000.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0622.2227.33-0.05-0.03
William & MaryCAA0.080.0664.7159.990.020.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.170.0652.6358.590.010.01
Ohio St.B100.150.0680.9576.520.090.03
HartfordAE0.080.0650.0045.930.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.080.0655.5655.540.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.160.0673.6869.640.080.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.160.0629.4139.63-0.06-0.01
RutgersB100.150.0655.0046.690.02-0.00
Washington St.P120.160.0647.3741.44-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.080.0684.2178.170.060.03
AlabamaSEC0.070.0668.4258.980.030.01
ArkansasSEC0.070.0668.4264.200.030.02
FloridaSEC0.080.0673.6871.560.040.02
GonzagaWCC0.070.0680.9583.260.050.04
IndianaB100.070.0657.8950.710.010.00
IowaB100.000.0647.6244.020.00-0.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0666.6763.200.000.02
NebraskaB100.070.0666.6759.820.020.01
PacificWCC0.150.0645.0044.47-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.070.0610.5318.34-0.06-0.04
PurdueB100.070.0690.4888.370.060.04
San DiegoWCC0.070.0663.1657.540.020.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0650.0048.730.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.070.0633.3332.94-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.080.0672.2268.930.040.02
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0668.4263.960.030.02
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0636.8435.57-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.090.0350.0052.460.000.00
High PointBSth0.100.0343.7549.23-0.01-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.100.0380.0075.060.060.02
North FloridaASun0.100.0331.5835.15-0.04-0.01
Texas TechB120.100.0378.9571.810.060.01
Kent St.MAC0.080.0344.4444.92-0.01-0.00
StanfordP120.080.0355.0050.370.010.00
Utah St.MWC0.080.0345.0045.49-0.01-0.00
BradleyMVC0.080.0365.0057.880.020.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0310.0019.63-0.07-0.02
MarquetteBE0.080.0368.4260.550.030.01
Miami OHMAC0.080.0347.0641.41-0.00-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0370.0068.300.030.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.080.0366.6773.210.030.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.080.0342.1146.09-0.01-0.00
Seton HallBE0.080.0375.0067.890.040.01
St. John'sBE0.090.0347.3742.16-0.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.080.0363.1657.890.020.00
TulsaAmer0.080.0355.0053.320.010.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.0310.5316.75-0.06-0.02
DrakeMVC0.070.0355.0048.980.01-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0337.5037.68-0.02-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.080.0352.6351.690.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.080.0366.6765.520.030.01
HamptonMEAC0.080.0320.0041.73-0.05-0.00
IllinoisB100.070.0347.3744.27-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.080.0384.2179.750.060.02
Kansas St.B120.080.0373.6862.720.040.01
LouisvilleACC0.080.0378.9569.790.050.01
LSUSEC0.080.0361.1153.170.020.00
MarylandB100.070.0370.0065.250.030.01
MichiganB100.000.0376.1970.740.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0385.0083.200.000.02
MississippiSEC0.000.0352.6345.860.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0372.2258.920.000.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.0383.3384.240.050.02
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0330.0032.52-0.03-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.070.0311.7612.81-0.06-0.02
SeattleWAC0.070.0357.8954.500.010.00
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0352.9459.250.000.01
TroySB0.080.0335.2942.76-0.02-0.00
UCLAP120.080.0365.0062.050.020.01
USC UpstateASun0.070.0311.1118.00-0.06-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.080.0368.4257.740.030.00
XavierBE0.080.0385.7180.080.060.02