Harvard

Conference:	Ivy
Expected RPI:	35.0
Current RPI:	35
Expected SOS:	184
Current SOS:	184
Current Record:	25-4
Expected Record:	25-4
Current Conf Record:	12-2
Expected Conf Record:	12-2
Probability of Auto Bid:	100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	11-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-1
Current OOC Record:	13-2
Expected OOC Record:	13-2
Expected OOC RPI:	25
Expected OOC SOS:	177

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
25-4	35.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Harvard.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-15	Holy Cross (177.0)	Pat	A	64-73	W	100%
11-19	Loyola Marymount (118.0)	WCC	A	67-77	W	100%
11-24	Utah (274.0)	P12	N	47-75	W	100%
11-25	Florida St. (11.0)	ACC	N	41-46	W	100%
11-26	Central Florida (54.0)	CUSA	N	49-59	W	100%
12-1	Vermont (134.0)	AE	A	48-55	W	100%
12-4	Seattle (277.0)	ind	H	80-70	W	100%
12-8	Connecticut (32.0)	BE	A	67-53	L	0%
12-10	Boston University (190.0)	AE	A	52-76	W	100%
12-22	Florida Atlantic (207.0)	SB	H	63-51	W	100%
12-29	Boston College (244.0)	ACC	A	46-67	W	100%
12-31	Saint Joseph's (69.0)	A10	H	74-69	W	100%
1-3	Fordham (240.0)	A10	A	60-54	L	0%
1-7	Dartmouth (328.0)	Ivy	H	63-47	W	100%
1-10	Monmouth (236.0)	NEC	A	61-70	W	100%
1-14	George Washington (188.0)	A10	H	69-48	W	100%
1-21	Dartmouth (328.0)	Ivy	A	38-54	W	100%
1-27	Yale (102.0)	Ivy	A	35-65	W	100%
1-28	Brown (313.0)	Ivy	A	59-68	W	100%
2-3	Cornell (181.0)	Ivy	H	71-60	W	100%
2-4	Columbia (186.0)	Ivy	H	57-52	W	100%
2-10	Pennsylvania (98.0)	Ivy	A	50-56	W	100%
2-11	Princeton (87.0)	Ivy	A	70-62	L	0%
2-17	Brown (313.0)	Ivy	H	69-42	W	100%
2-18	Yale (102.0)	Ivy	H	66-51	W	100%
2-24	Princeton (87.0)	Ivy	H	67-64	W	100%
2-25	Pennsylvania (98.0)	Ivy	H	54-55	L	0%
3-2	Columbia (186.0)	Ivy	A	70-77	W	100%
3-3	Cornell (181.0)	Ivy	A	63-67	W	100%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Harvard's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Harvard's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Harvard.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Harvard	Ivy	26.28	26.28	88.97	88.97	20.48	20.48
Columbia	Ivy	4.26	4.26	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Dartmouth	Ivy	4.24	4.24	14.81	14.81	-2.98	-2.98
Yale	Ivy	4.22	4.22	70.83	70.83	1.76	1.76
Pennsylvania	Ivy	4.21	4.21	62.07	62.07	1.02	1.02
Brown	Ivy	4.21	4.21	25.00	25.00	-2.11	-2.11
Princeton	Ivy	4.20	4.20	61.54	61.54	0.97	0.97
Cornell	Ivy	4.20	4.20	44.00	44.00	-0.50	-0.50
Holy Cross	Pat	1.97	1.97	53.57	53.57	0.14	0.14
Vermont	AE	1.90	1.90	69.70	69.70	0.75	0.75
Florida St.	ACC	1.90	1.90	75.00	75.00	0.95	0.95
Boston University	AE	1.89	1.89	51.61	51.61	0.06	0.06
Connecticut	BE	1.87	1.87	59.38	59.38	0.35	0.35
Saint Joseph's	A10	1.86	1.86	62.50	62.50	0.47	0.47
Loyola Marymount	WCC	1.81	1.81	60.71	60.71	0.39	0.39
Monmouth	NEC	1.81	1.81	38.71	38.71	-0.41	-0.41
Boston College	ACC	1.81	1.81	30.00	30.00	-0.72	-0.72
Fordham	A10	1.81	1.81	32.14	32.14	-0.64	-0.64
George Washington	A10	1.78	1.78	33.33	33.33	-0.59	-0.59
Central Florida	CUSA	1.78	1.78	68.97	68.97	0.67	0.67
Florida Atlantic	SB	1.72	1.72	35.71	35.71	-0.49	-0.49
Seattle	ind	1.72	1.72	39.13	39.13	-0.37	-0.37
Utah	P12	1.72	1.72	17.24	17.24	-1.13	-1.13
Hartford	AE	0.34	0.34	29.03	29.03	-0.14	-0.14
Rhode Island	A10	0.32	0.32	22.58	22.58	-0.18	-0.18
Albany	AE	0.31	0.31	57.58	57.58	0.05	0.05
American	Pat	0.30	0.30	64.52	64.52	0.09	0.09
Lafayette	Pat	0.29	0.29	41.94	41.94	-0.05	-0.05
Stony Brook	AE	0.28	0.28	70.00	70.00	0.11	0.11
New Hampshire	AE	0.28	0.28	42.86	42.86	-0.04	-0.04
Bucknell	Pat	0.27	0.27	71.88	71.88	0.12	0.12
Maine	AE	0.24	0.24	39.29	39.29	-0.05	-0.05
Bryant	NEC	0.24	0.24	6.67	6.67	-0.21	-0.21
San Francisco	WCC	0.21	0.21	58.06	58.06	0.03	0.03
Colgate	Pat	0.21	0.21	26.67	26.67	-0.10	-0.10
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.21	0.21	43.75	43.75	-0.03	-0.03
Manhattan	MAAC	0.20	0.20	62.50	62.50	0.05	0.05
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.20	0.20	64.52	64.52	0.06	0.06
Binghamton	AE	0.20	0.20	6.45	6.45	-0.17	-0.17
Wagner	NEC	0.20	0.20	80.65	80.65	0.12	0.12
Temple	A10	0.20	0.20	77.42	77.42	0.11	0.11
La Salle	A10	0.19	0.19	63.64	63.64	0.05	0.05
Massachusetts	A10	0.19	0.19	66.67	66.67	0.06	0.06
Longwood	ind	0.19	0.19	22.22	22.22	-0.10	-0.10
Army	Pat	0.19	0.19	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Elon	SC	0.18	0.18	44.83	44.83	-0.02	-0.02
Rutgers	BE	0.17	0.17	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.17	0.17	64.71	64.71	0.05	0.05
St. Louis	A10	0.17	0.17	77.42	77.42	0.09	0.09
Miami FL	ACC	0.16	0.16	61.29	61.29	0.04	0.04
Duke	ACC	0.16	0.16	81.82	81.82	0.10	0.10
Villanova	BE	0.16	0.16	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.16	0.16	13.33	13.33	-0.12	-0.12
Lehigh	Pat	0.15	0.15	78.12	78.12	0.09	0.09
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.15	0.15	44.83	44.83	-0.02	-0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.15	0.15	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.15	0.15	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Siena	MAAC	0.15	0.15	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.15	0.15	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.14	0.14	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Rider	MAAC	0.14	0.14	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
Marist	MAAC	0.14	0.14	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Providence	BE	0.14	0.14	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.14	0.14	10.34	10.34	-0.11	-0.11
Long Island	NEC	0.14	0.14	75.76	75.76	0.07	0.07
Charlotte	A10	0.14	0.14	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.14	0.14	35.48	35.48	-0.04	-0.04
Richmond	A10	0.14	0.14	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.14	0.14	70.59	70.59	0.06	0.06
Syracuse	BE	0.14	0.14	93.94	93.94	0.12	0.12
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.13	0.13	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas St.	SB	0.13	0.13	39.39	39.39	-0.03	-0.03
Buffalo	MAC	0.13	0.13	64.29	64.29	0.04	0.04
North Texas	SB	0.12	0.12	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Portland	WCC	0.12	0.12	20.00	20.00	-0.07	-0.07
Maryland	ACC	0.12	0.12	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.12	0.12	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Virginia	ACC	0.12	0.12	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
George Mason	CAA	0.11	0.11	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
UCLA	P12	0.11	0.11	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.11	0.11	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Northeastern	CAA	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.11	0.11	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Dayton	A10	0.11	0.11	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.11	0.11	85.29	85.29	0.08	0.08
Pepperdine	WCC	0.10	0.10	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
Washington	P12	0.09	0.09	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Stanford	P12	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Florida	SEC	0.09	0.09	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.09	0.09	80.00	80.00	0.05	0.05
Brigham Young	WCC	0.09	0.09	74.19	74.19	0.04	0.04
Idaho St.	BSky	0.09	0.09	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
Drexel	CAA	0.09	0.09	81.82	81.82	0.06	0.06
Navy	Pat	0.09	0.09	7.14	7.14	-0.07	-0.07
Colorado	P12	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Memphis	CUSA	0.09	0.09	76.47	76.47	0.05	0.05
South Alabama	SB	0.09	0.09	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.09	0.09	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
California	P12	0.09	0.09	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Duquesne	A10	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Xavier	A10	0.08	0.08	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Pittsburgh	BE	0.08	0.08	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
South Florida	BE	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Idaho	WAC	0.07	0.07	55.17	55.17	0.01	0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Utah St.	WAC	0.07	0.07	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Utah Valley	GWC	0.07	0.07	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Fresno St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Montana St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	37.04	37.04	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois	B10	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Furman	SC	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Florida International	SB	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Gonzaga	WCC	0.06	0.06	80.65	80.65	0.04	0.04
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.06	0.06	29.63	29.63	-0.02	-0.02
San Diego	WCC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.06	0.06	21.43	21.43	-0.03	-0.03
St. Mary's	WCC	0.06	0.06	83.33	83.33	0.04	0.04
Troy	SB	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
College of Charleston	SC	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Arizona	P12	0.06	0.06	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Arizona St.	P12	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
East Carolina	CUSA	0.06	0.06	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.06	0.06	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Marshall	CUSA	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Oregon	P12	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.06	0.06	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Hofstra	CAA	0.06	0.06	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Fairfield	MAAC	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
St. John's	BE	0.06	0.06	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Davidson	SC	0.06	0.06	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
NC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.05	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Tulsa	CUSA	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Old Dominion	CAA	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
West Virginia	BE	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.04	0.04	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
San Jose St.	WAC	0.04	0.04	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
UC Davis	BW	0.04	0.04	13.33	13.33	-0.03	-0.03
UC Irvine	BW	0.04	0.04	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Denver	SB	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas	B12	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.03	0.03	11.11	11.11	-0.02	-0.02
Texas St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	34.62	34.62	-0.01	-0.01
Valparaiso	Horz	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Boise St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.03	0.03	67.86	67.86	0.01	0.01
High Point	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Houston	CUSA	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Southern California	P12	0.03	0.03	18.75	18.75	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Tulane	CUSA	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Washington St.	P12	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Weber St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	78.57	78.57	0.02	0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.03	0.03	21.88	21.88	-0.02	-0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Detroit	Horz	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
New Mexico	MWC	0.03	0.03	81.25	81.25	0.02	0.02
UC Riverside	BW	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.03	0.03	82.35	82.35	0.02	0.02
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Texas	B12	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.03	0.03	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Louisville	BE	0.03	0.03	74.29	74.29	0.01	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
NC Greensboro	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Niagara	MAAC	0.03	0.03	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Towson	CAA	0.03	0.03	3.12	3.12	-0.02	-0.02