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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Harvard

Conference:Ivy
Expected RPI:143.0
Current RPI:143
Expected SOS:221
Current SOS:221
Current Record:16-10
Expected Record:16-10
Current Conf Record:10-5
Expected Conf Record:10-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-3
Current OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:161
Expected OOC SOS:215



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-10143.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Harvard.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Stanford (100.0)P12N80-70L0%0.0
11-22Holy Cross (204.0)PatH52-63L0%0.0
11-26Massachusetts (195.0)A10A70-66L0%0.0
11-29George Washington (102.0)A10H74-77L0%0.0
12-3Fordham (215.0)A10H64-52W100%0.0
12-6Northeastern (136.0)CAAH86-80W100%0.0
12-7Boston College (219.0)ACCA66-74W100%0.0
12-23Houston (54.0)AmerA56-57W100%0.0
12-30Howard (337.0)MEACH67-46W100%0.0
1-2Vermont (46.0)AEA82-71L0%0.0
1-7Dartmouth (305.0)IvyA58-74W100%0.0
1-16Bryant (285.0)NECA65-70W100%0.0
1-21Dartmouth (305.0)IvyH82-68W100%0.0
1-27Cornell (270.0)IvyA71-77W100%0.0
1-28Columbia (262.0)IvyA65-62L0%0.0
2-3Penn (203.0)IvyH69-59W100%0.0
2-4Princeton (47.0)IvyH56-57L0%0.0
2-10Brown (284.0)IvyA74-87W100%0.0
2-11Yale (128.0)IvyA67-75W100%0.0
2-17Columbia (262.0)IvyH78-72W100%0.0
2-18Cornell (270.0)IvyH87-75W100%0.0
2-24Yale (128.0)IvyH77-64W100%0.0
2-25Brown (284.0)IvyH77-58W100%0.0
3-3Princeton (47.0)IvyA73-69L0%0.0
3-4Penn (203.0)IvyA75-72L0%0.0
3-11Yale (128.0)IvyN71-73L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Harvard's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Harvard's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Harvard.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
HarvardIvy26.4826.4862.3062.306.516.51
YaleIvy6.746.7464.0064.001.891.89
PrincetonIvy4.934.9376.9276.922.652.65
DartmouthIvy4.844.8428.0028.00-2.13-2.13
PennIvy4.824.8246.1546.15-0.37-0.37
CornellIvy4.824.8226.9226.92-2.22-2.22
BrownIvy4.794.7942.3142.31-0.74-0.74
ColumbiaIvy4.774.7737.5037.50-1.19-1.19
BryantNEC2.172.1736.6736.67-0.58-0.58
VermontAE2.162.1684.3884.381.481.48
HowardMEAC2.032.0325.8125.81-0.98-0.98
HoustonAmer2.022.0270.0070.000.810.81
NortheasternCAA2.022.0250.0050.000.000.00
George WashingtonA102.012.0156.2556.250.250.25
MassachusettsA102.012.0143.7543.75-0.25-0.25
Boston CollegeACC1.991.9929.0329.03-0.84-0.84
FordhamA101.981.9840.0040.00-0.40-0.40
Holy CrossPat1.951.9545.1645.16-0.19-0.19
StanfordP121.921.9241.3841.38-0.33-0.33
AlbanyAE0.430.4360.6160.610.090.09
Saint Joseph'sA100.390.3935.4835.48-0.11-0.11
MaineAE0.360.3619.3519.35-0.22-0.22
Central ConnecticutNEC0.330.3320.6920.69-0.20-0.20
Rhode IslandA100.320.3272.7372.730.150.15
George MasonA100.280.2859.3859.380.050.05
LafayettePat0.270.2727.5927.59-0.12-0.12
NavyPat0.260.2648.3948.39-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.260.2628.1228.12-0.11-0.11
Stony BrookAE0.260.2658.0658.060.040.04
TempleAmer0.260.2650.0050.000.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.260.2640.6240.62-0.05-0.05
Miami FLACC0.230.2365.6265.620.070.07
LehighPat0.230.2361.2961.290.050.05
New HampshireAE0.220.2258.6258.620.040.04
La SalleA100.220.2250.0050.000.000.00
VCUA100.220.2276.4776.470.110.11
RichmondA100.210.2162.5062.500.050.05
ColgatePat0.200.2029.0329.03-0.09-0.09
QuinnipiacMAAC0.200.2032.2632.26-0.07-0.07
MaristMAAC0.200.2025.0025.00-0.10-0.10
UCFAmer0.190.1965.6265.620.060.06
FairfieldMAAC0.170.1753.3353.330.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.170.1781.8281.820.110.11
HofstraCAA0.170.1745.1645.16-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.170.1735.4835.48-0.05-0.05
LIU BrooklynNEC0.160.1661.2961.290.040.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.160.1644.8344.83-0.02-0.02
SyracuseACC0.160.1656.2556.250.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.160.1662.5062.500.040.04
UMass LowellAE0.160.1633.3333.33-0.05-0.05
DavidsonA100.150.1553.1253.120.010.01
DuquesneA100.150.1531.2531.25-0.06-0.06
St. BonaventureA100.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
WashingtonP120.140.1429.0329.03-0.06-0.06
ArmyPat0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
PittsburghACC0.130.1348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
CaliforniaP120.130.1363.6463.640.040.04
CincinnatiAmer0.130.1385.2985.290.090.09
DrexelCAA0.130.1325.8125.81-0.06-0.06
Robert MorrisNEC0.130.1342.4242.42-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.130.1310.0010.00-0.10-0.10
BucknellPat0.130.1376.4776.470.070.07
BinghamtonAE0.130.1331.0331.03-0.05-0.05
SienaMAAC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
Boston UniversityPat0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.120.1237.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Saint LouisA100.120.1236.3636.36-0.03-0.03
Seton HallBE0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
Old DominionCUSA0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
USCP120.100.1072.7372.730.050.05
LibertyBSth0.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.090.0988.2488.240.070.07
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.090.0934.4834.48-0.03-0.03
St. Francis PANEC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
WagnerNEC0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
Notre DameACC0.090.0973.5373.530.040.04
AmericanPat0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Wake ForestACC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
DaytonA100.090.0976.6776.670.050.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.093.333.33-0.08-0.08
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0767.8667.860.030.03
LongwoodBSth0.070.0714.2914.29-0.05-0.05
BYUWCC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
HawaiiBW0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0730.3030.30-0.03-0.03
NJITASun0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.070.0758.8258.820.010.01
VillanovaBE0.070.0791.1891.180.060.06
WyomingMWC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
ArizonaP120.060.0688.2488.240.050.05
ColoradoP120.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
OregonP120.060.0684.8584.850.040.04
Oregon St.P120.060.0612.9012.90-0.05-0.05
UtahP120.060.0662.0762.070.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.060.0628.1228.12-0.03-0.03
MemphisAmer0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.060.0655.8855.880.010.01
TulaneAmer0.060.0619.3519.35-0.04-0.04
TulsaAmer0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0684.3884.380.040.04
William & MaryCAA0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
RiderMAAC0.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
Loyola MDPat0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0673.3373.330.030.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
UMBCAE0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
IdahoBSky0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
UCLAP120.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Washington St.P120.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0396.9796.970.030.03
Kent St.MAC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
LipscombASun0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
LSUSEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
OaklandHorz0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
OhioMAC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0374.1974.190.020.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.030.0377.1477.140.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
IUPUISum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Kansas St.B120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.020.02
MarquetteBE0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
MarylandB100.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
MichiganB100.030.0368.5768.570.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
ButlerBE0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
PacificWCC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
WoffordSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00