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Through games of Dec 17, 2014.


Harvard

Conference:Ivy
Expected RPI:51.4
Current RPI:19
Expected SOS:127
Current SOS:41
Current Record:6-1
Expected Record:19-7
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-2
Current OOC Record:6-1
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:34
Expected OOC SOS:80



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-113.30.03%
24-215.50.28%
23-319.41.40%
22-423.65.61%
21-529.912.69%
20-636.918.81%
19-747.521.91%
18-859.318.29%
17-974.712.26%
16-1090.46.00%
15-11110.31.93%
14-12128.10.57%
13-13153.70.20%
12-14174.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Harvard.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Holy Cross (158.8)PatN57-58L0%0.0
11-20Florida Atlantic (174.0)CUSAH71-49W100%0.0
11-25Houston (204.1)AmerH84-63W100%0.0
11-29Massachusetts (88.2)A10H75-73W100%0.0
12-3Northeastern (134.1)CAAH60-46W100%0.0
12-6Vermont (165.1)AEA52-64W100%0.0
12-8Boston University (206.3)PatH70-56W100%0.0
12-21Virginia (7.1)ACCA0-08%-16.7
12-28Arizona St. (94.9)P12A0-039%-3.2
12-30Grand Canyon (288.7)WACA0-080%9.9
1-10Dartmouth (186.6)IvyA0-063%3.9
1-14Boston College (155.2)ACCA0-059%2.6
1-20Bryant (202.3)NECA0-071%6.5
1-24Dartmouth (186.6)IvyH0-086%12.7
1-30Princeton (239.3)IvyA0-070%6.2
1-31Penn (272.2)IvyA0-077%8.8
2-6Brown (247.7)IvyA0-079%9.5
2-7Yale (68.3)IvyA0-046%-1.1
2-13Columbia (99.0)IvyH0-072%7.0
2-14Cornell (180.9)IvyH0-086%13.0
2-20Penn (272.2)IvyH0-093%17.6
2-21Princeton (239.3)IvyH0-090%15.0
2-27Cornell (180.9)IvyA0-064%4.2
2-28Columbia (99.0)IvyA0-044%-1.8
3-6Yale (68.3)IvyH0-074%7.7
3-7Brown (247.7)IvyH0-094%18.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Harvard's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Harvard's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Harvard.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
HarvardIvy28.2126.3481.4876.5217.7613.97
BrownIvy0.514.7340.0035.35-0.10-1.39
YaleIvy0.004.7370.0066.680.001.58
DartmouthIvy0.004.7244.4449.12-0.00-0.08
CornellIvy0.004.6655.5650.350.000.03
PrincetonIvy0.004.6627.2739.08-0.00-1.02
PennIvy0.004.6637.5034.28-0.00-1.46
ColumbiaIvy0.004.6562.5067.050.001.59
BryantNEC0.452.1628.5747.89-0.19-0.09
VermontAE7.142.0957.1462.101.020.51
Holy CrossPat7.142.0650.0050.810.000.03
Boston UniversityPat7.542.0337.5043.12-1.88-0.28
NortheasternCAA7.901.9975.0059.493.950.38
Boston CollegeACC0.361.9966.6741.970.12-0.32
MassachusettsA107.541.9966.6757.382.510.29
VirginiaACC0.001.96100.0085.550.001.39
Arizona St.P120.001.9260.0054.060.000.16
Florida AtlanticCUSA7.141.9260.0054.301.430.17
Grand CanyonWAC0.001.9236.3645.24-0.00-0.18
HoustonAmer7.141.9283.3350.524.760.02
LafayettePat0.000.3475.0069.390.000.13
UMass LowellAE0.400.3455.5654.600.040.03
ColgatePat0.000.3120.0042.80-0.00-0.04
New HampshireAE0.400.3057.1464.510.060.09
Loyola MDPat0.000.2833.3327.49-0.00-0.12
AmericanPat0.000.2860.0065.060.000.08
Stony BrookAE0.000.2837.5055.05-0.000.03
BinghamtonAE0.400.270.0012.01-0.40-0.21
LehighPat0.000.2442.8652.31-0.000.01
WagnerNEC0.450.2414.2933.80-0.32-0.08
NavyPat0.400.2420.0021.41-0.24-0.14
HartfordAE0.960.2450.0050.820.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.510.2350.0058.660.000.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.400.2336.3647.27-0.11-0.01
BucknellPat0.000.2140.0036.15-0.00-0.06
ConnecticutAmer0.000.2057.1456.210.000.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.2028.5741.30-0.00-0.04
SyracuseACC0.510.2066.6757.600.170.03
ProvidenceBE0.000.2072.7352.880.000.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.1722.2240.77-0.00-0.03
ArmyPat0.000.1777.7868.810.000.07
NJITind0.510.1736.3640.81-0.14-0.03
AlbanyAE0.510.1733.3348.85-0.17-0.00
MaineAE0.000.1711.1121.17-0.00-0.10
CanisiusMAAC0.800.1750.0061.650.000.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.450.1755.5640.200.05-0.03
PittsburghACC0.000.1666.6752.270.000.01
George MasonA100.000.1625.0025.95-0.00-0.08
La SalleA100.000.1650.0049.770.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.1650.0038.030.00-0.04
KentuckySEC0.400.14100.0094.670.400.12
Penn St.B100.000.1390.9154.060.000.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.840.1337.5045.89-0.21-0.01
RiderMAAC0.000.1345.4552.00-0.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.1375.0060.600.000.03
HofstraCAA0.000.1377.7878.200.000.08
Norfolk St.MEAC0.400.1350.0056.370.000.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.1322.2231.12-0.00-0.05
SienaMAAC0.800.1337.5051.47-0.200.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.1375.0064.990.000.04
CaliforniaP120.000.1390.0066.470.000.04
DrexelCAA0.000.1325.0037.61-0.00-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.000.1362.5073.580.000.06
Notre DameACC0.360.1390.9171.750.290.06
Florida St.ACC0.750.1350.0037.400.00-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.600.1037.5038.59-0.15-0.02
UCFAmer0.600.1055.5635.040.07-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.000.1066.6772.280.000.05
TempleAmer0.000.1060.0053.790.000.01
MaristMAAC0.000.1010.0018.78-0.00-0.06
BuffaloMAC0.000.1075.0069.340.000.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1018.1821.69-0.00-0.06
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.1075.0074.350.000.05
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.510.1037.5041.33-0.13-0.02
ElonCAA0.600.1037.5048.14-0.15-0.00
USCP120.000.1060.0037.230.00-0.02
DaytonA100.000.1077.7869.890.000.04
Chicago St.WAC0.000.100.0012.02-0.00-0.07
LouisvilleACC0.000.10100.0085.210.000.07
Miami FLACC0.000.1090.0075.760.000.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.1081.8264.060.000.03
Virginia TechACC0.000.1055.5638.100.00-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.0970.0060.810.000.02
FIUCUSA0.000.0750.0054.660.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0725.0038.24-0.00-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0744.4444.99-0.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.0733.3338.24-0.00-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0755.5648.830.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0716.6725.04-0.00-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0740.0046.88-0.00-0.00
IPFWSum0.000.0757.1456.730.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0755.5638.460.00-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.000.0720.0026.68-0.00-0.03
MercerSC0.000.0737.5041.84-0.00-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0744.4456.70-0.000.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0714.2931.11-0.00-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0750.0033.280.00-0.02
UMBCAE0.000.0710.0021.05-0.00-0.04
VillanovaBE0.000.07100.0082.310.000.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.510.0716.6719.82-0.34-0.04
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0722.2230.96-0.00-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0711.1129.64-0.00-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0777.7869.420.000.03
FloridaSEC0.000.0760.0064.870.000.02
HowardMEAC0.000.0730.0044.01-0.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.0772.7365.950.000.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0733.3332.85-0.00-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.0771.4361.390.000.02
LibertyBSth0.000.0725.0035.05-0.00-0.02
LipscombASun0.000.0725.0042.50-0.00-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0725.0040.49-0.00-0.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0755.5660.050.000.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0737.5038.03-0.00-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0736.3664.92-0.000.02
NorthwesternB100.000.0760.0040.460.00-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.070.0039.62-0.00-0.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0750.0055.940.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0730.0039.75-0.00-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0754.5557.610.000.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.070.007.87-0.00-0.06
SeattleWAC0.000.0737.5046.46-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.000.0770.0071.340.000.03
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0762.5064.360.000.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0750.0048.630.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0760.0049.650.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0750.0062.870.000.02
TulaneAmer0.000.0787.5054.920.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0760.0056.680.000.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0722.2242.15-0.00-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0733.3340.60-0.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0760.0034.010.00-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.000.0770.0058.440.000.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0720.0029.28-0.00-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0620.0034.02-0.00-0.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0666.6745.400.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.06100.0087.440.000.05
Georgia TechACC0.000.0677.7851.090.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.0670.0071.470.000.03
DavidsonA100.000.0687.5077.040.000.03
George WashingtonA100.000.0666.6766.690.000.02
MarylandB100.000.0690.9167.700.000.02
VCUA100.000.0670.0071.520.000.03
ArizonaP120.000.06100.0080.830.000.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0650.0044.640.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.000.0666.6757.580.000.01
DelawareCAA0.000.060.008.74-0.00-0.05
DetroitHorz0.000.0644.4449.46-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.000.0628.5728.28-0.00-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.750.0622.2237.72-0.42-0.02
OregonP120.000.0666.6759.200.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0675.0049.720.00-0.00
RichmondA100.000.0650.0057.040.000.01
StanfordP120.000.0675.0058.750.000.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0666.6751.310.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0650.0053.700.000.00
UtahP120.000.0677.7879.670.000.04
William & MaryCAA0.000.0657.1456.560.000.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0455.5665.660.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0442.8655.67-0.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.600.0462.5059.460.150.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0410.0018.36-0.00-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0470.0066.610.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0442.8636.42-0.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0488.8981.120.000.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0450.0032.540.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.600.0411.1128.93-0.46-0.02
UTSACUSA0.000.0442.8637.04-0.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0337.5064.54-0.000.01
AkronMAC0.000.0360.0056.780.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.510.0320.0038.33-0.31-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0375.0068.510.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0385.7170.330.000.01
DenverSum0.000.0350.0053.980.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0012.28-0.00-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.510.0320.0038.66-0.31-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0316.6733.24-0.00-0.01
IndianaB100.000.0380.0057.470.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.0310.0018.04-0.00-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.000.0325.0027.83-0.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.510.0320.0037.19-0.31-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.510.0355.5661.640.060.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.0342.8643.73-0.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0355.5654.760.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0337.5048.87-0.00-0.00
RutgersB100.000.0360.0034.930.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0016.94-0.00-0.02
West VirginiaB120.000.0390.0066.760.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0366.6755.660.000.00
BYUWCC0.000.0366.6767.780.000.01
Cal PolyBW0.400.0342.8638.02-0.06-0.01
DuquesneA100.000.0328.5731.25-0.00-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.400.0344.4439.99-0.04-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.360.0375.0071.470.180.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0366.6772.380.000.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0325.0023.97-0.00-0.02
LSUSEC0.360.0377.7862.380.200.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0355.5647.640.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.0375.0058.890.000.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0371.4357.420.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0350.0041.530.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0377.7865.350.000.01
UCLAP120.000.0372.7357.410.000.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0375.0050.770.000.00
WashingtonP120.000.03100.0072.030.000.01
Washington St.P120.000.0340.0029.07-0.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.400.0362.5055.120.100.00