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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Harvard

Conference:Ivy
Expected RPI:117.0
Current RPI:117
Expected SOS:177
Current SOS:177
Current Record:17-13
Expected Record:17-13
Current Conf Record:13-3
Expected Conf Record:13-3
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-3
Current OOC Record:4-10
Expected OOC Record:4-10
Expected OOC RPI:213
Expected OOC SOS:85



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-13117.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Harvard.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Massachusetts (240.0)A10H70-67W100%0.0
11-16Holy Cross (265.0)PatA73-69L0%0.0
11-18Manhattan (228.0)MAACA73-69L0%0.0
11-23Saint Mary's (40.0)WCCN71-89L0%0.0
11-24Saint Joseph's (147.0)A10N71-77W100%0.0
11-26Cal St. Fullerton (131.0)BWA70-61L0%0.0
11-30Northeastern (55.0)CAAA77-61L0%0.0
12-2Kentucky (10.0)SECA79-70L0%0.0
12-6Fordham (290.0)A10A45-47W100%0.0
12-21Boston University (212.0)PatH74-63W100%0.0
12-23George Washington (195.0)A10A58-48L0%0.0
12-30Minnesota (171.0)B10A65-55L0%0.0
1-2Vermont (60.0)AEH56-62L0%0.0
1-6Dartmouth (334.0)IvyH61-51W100%0.0
1-10Wofford (129.0)SCA63-62L0%0.0
1-20Dartmouth (334.0)IvyA57-62W100%0.0
1-26Yale (183.0)IvyA52-54W100%0.0
1-27Brown (298.0)IvyA77-86W100%0.0
2-2Columbia (316.0)IvyA83-76L0%0.0
2-3Cornell (248.0)IvyA73-76W100%0.0
2-9Princeton (226.0)IvyH66-51W100%0.0
2-10Penn (112.0)IvyH76-67W100%0.0
2-16Brown (298.0)IvyH65-58W100%0.0
2-17Yale (183.0)IvyH64-49W100%0.0
2-23Princeton (226.0)IvyA66-72W100%0.0
2-24Penn (112.0)IvyA74-71L0%0.0
3-2Cornell (248.0)IvyH98-88W100%0.0
3-3Columbia (316.0)IvyH93-74W100%0.0
3-10Cornell (248.0)IvyN74-55W100%0.0
3-11Penn (112.0)IvyA68-65L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Harvard's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Harvard's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Harvard.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
HarvardIvy26.5026.5063.7163.717.277.27
PennIvy5.885.8875.0075.002.942.94
CornellIvy5.805.8045.8345.83-0.48-0.48
YaleIvy4.294.2953.5753.570.310.31
PrincetonIvy4.234.2346.1546.15-0.33-0.33
DartmouthIvy4.194.1925.0025.00-2.10-2.10
BrownIvy4.174.1741.6741.67-0.69-0.69
ColumbiaIvy4.174.1725.0025.00-2.08-2.08
Saint Joseph'sA101.941.9451.6151.610.060.06
VermontAE1.841.8478.1278.121.031.03
George WashingtonA101.831.8343.7543.75-0.23-0.23
MassachusettsA101.821.8240.6240.62-0.34-0.34
FordhamA101.821.8230.0030.00-0.73-0.73
NortheasternCAA1.811.8167.7467.740.640.64
Holy CrossPat1.771.7736.6736.67-0.47-0.47
Boston UniversityPat1.751.7548.2848.28-0.06-0.06
ManhattanMAAC1.721.7243.3343.33-0.23-0.23
Saint Mary'sWCC1.701.7084.3884.381.171.17
Cal St. FullertonBW1.691.6960.7160.710.360.36
KentuckySEC1.691.6969.7069.700.670.67
MinnesotaB101.691.6945.1645.16-0.16-0.16
WoffordSC1.671.6758.6258.620.290.29
LafayettePat0.340.3430.0030.00-0.14-0.14
La SalleA100.310.3140.6240.62-0.06-0.06
MaineAE0.310.3113.3313.33-0.23-0.23
QuinnipiacMAAC0.300.3036.3636.36-0.08-0.08
ColgatePat0.290.2958.0658.060.050.05
AlbanyAE0.290.2967.7467.740.100.10
NavyPat0.280.2861.2961.290.060.06
MonmouthMAAC0.270.2735.4835.48-0.08-0.08
UMass LowellAE0.260.2637.9337.93-0.06-0.06
LehighPat0.250.2551.7251.720.010.01
DuquesneA100.250.2550.0050.000.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.250.2578.1278.120.140.14
St. BonaventureA100.240.2478.1278.120.130.13
DaytonA100.230.2345.1645.16-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.230.2348.4848.48-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.230.2338.7138.71-0.05-0.05
BucknellPat0.210.2173.5373.530.100.10
Stony BrookAE0.200.2038.7138.71-0.05-0.05
ToledoMAC0.200.2066.6766.670.070.07
NiagaraMAAC0.200.2059.3859.380.040.04
New HampshireAE0.190.1927.5927.59-0.09-0.09
BryantNEC0.180.189.689.68-0.15-0.15
ArmyPat0.170.1741.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Loyola MDPat0.170.1726.6726.67-0.08-0.08
VillanovaBE0.170.1788.2488.240.130.13
IonaMAAC0.160.1660.6160.610.030.03
BYUWCC0.160.1670.5970.590.070.07
TowsonCAA0.160.1653.3353.330.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.160.1613.3313.33-0.11-0.11
DavidsonA100.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
VCUA100.160.1654.5554.550.010.01
RichmondA100.150.1537.5037.50-0.04-0.04
BinghamtonAE0.140.1431.0331.03-0.05-0.05
Miami FLACC0.140.1470.9770.970.060.06
FairfieldMAAC0.130.1351.5251.520.000.00
TempleAmer0.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
Saint LouisA100.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.130.1354.5554.550.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.130.1355.8855.880.020.02
MaristMAAC0.120.1219.3519.35-0.07-0.07
St. Francis NYNEC0.120.1237.9337.93-0.03-0.03
AuburnSEC0.120.1278.1278.120.070.07
Cal PolyBW0.120.1224.1424.14-0.06-0.06
HawaiiBW0.120.1253.5753.570.010.01
NorthwesternB100.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.120.1261.7661.760.030.03
ProvidenceBE0.120.1261.7661.760.030.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
AmericanPat0.110.1120.0020.00-0.07-0.07
Northern IllinoisMAC0.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
UMKCWAC0.110.1127.5927.59-0.05-0.05
East Tennessee St.SC0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
Western CarolinaSC0.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
HowardMEAC0.110.1125.8125.81-0.05-0.05
SienaMAAC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.05-0.05
SyracuseACC0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.090.0930.0030.00-0.04-0.04
USCP120.090.0967.6567.650.030.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
MercerSC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0877.4277.420.050.05
Georgia TechACC0.080.0840.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.080.0865.5265.520.030.03
CaliforniaP120.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
FurmanSC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
WisconsinB100.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.086.676.67-0.07-0.07
Sacramento St.BSky0.080.0816.6716.67-0.05-0.05
ElonCAA0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
PortlandWCC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
RiderMAAC0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
HofstraCAA0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
RutgersB100.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.080.0877.4277.420.040.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.080.0816.1316.13-0.05-0.05
UMBCAE0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
AlabamaSEC0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
AkronMAC0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
UC RiversideBW0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0670.0070.000.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
CreightonBE0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
TCUB120.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
The CitadelSC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.02-0.02
VMISC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
IowaB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Ohio St.B100.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
PurdueB100.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
William & MaryCAA0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
Washington St.P120.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
HartfordAE0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
PacificWCC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
High PointBSth0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0371.4371.430.010.01
North FloridaASun0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0324.2424.24-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.039.689.68-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
MichiganB100.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
Michigan St.B100.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Kansas St.B120.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
SeattleWAC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
XavierBE0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
Fort WayneSum0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
KansasB120.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
LSUSEC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
MississippiSEC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
TroySB0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UCLAP120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01